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Nucor Corporation
NUE · US · NYSE
160.89
USD
+3.87
(2.41%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Jack Sullivan General Manager of Investor Relations --
Mr. Stephen D. Laxton Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive Vice President 2.95M
Mr. Leon J. Topalian President, Chief Executive Officer & Chairman of the Board 8.55M
Mr. David A. Sumoski Chief Operating Officer 2.93M
Mr. Gregory J. Murphy Executive Vice President of Business Services & General Counsel --
Ms. Nicole B. Theophilus Executive Vice President of Talent and Human Resources, --
Mr. Benjamin M. Pickett General Manager of Public Affairs & Government Relations --
Mr. Daniel R. Needham Executive Vice President of Commercial 3.01M
Mr. D. Chad Utermark Executive Vice President of New Markets & Innovation 2.56M
Mr. K. Rex Query Executive Vice President of Sheet, Tubular Products & Talent Resources 3.37M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-01 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3253 0
2024-06-01 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 94 168.85
2024-06-01 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 208 168.85
2024-06-01 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 343 168.85
2024-06-01 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 544 168.85
2024-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 229 168.85
2024-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 616 168.85
2024-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 229 168.85
2024-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 350 168.85
2024-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 605 168.85
2024-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 70 168.85
2024-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 208 168.85
2024-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 605 168.85
2024-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 917 168.85
2024-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER J director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 Gangestad Nicholas C director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 West Nadja director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 KOELLNER LAURETTE T director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 Dempsey Patrick director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 0
2024-06-01 CLAYTON NORMA director A - A-Award Common Stock 1006 168.85
2024-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 917 168.85
2024-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 41456 0
2024-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2567 168.85
2024-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7846 168.85
2024-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7709 168.85
2024-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 25799 168.85
2024-06-01 Theophilus Nicole B Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 1184 0
2024-06-01 Theophilus Nicole B Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 2948 168.85
2024-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 917 168.85
2024-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 544 168.85
2024-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 544 168.85
2024-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3139 168.85
2024-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 411 168.85
2024-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1626 168.85
2024-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1707 168.85
2024-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 16582 0
2024-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 229 168.85
2024-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 616 168.85
2024-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 3084 168.85
2024-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Stock Option 3685 168.85
2024-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 1845 0
2024-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 229 168.85
2024-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 350 168.85
2024-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 343 168.85
2024-05-12 Spicer Randy J Executive Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-05-01 Theophilus Nicole B Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 5335 0
2024-04-29 Theophilus Nicole B Executive Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33068 42.46
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2093 195.125
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2600 195.17
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 195.18
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 195.3
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4000 195.335
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11448 195.34
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 600 195.35
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 195.36
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11827 195.38
2024-03-22 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 33068 42.46
2024-03-21 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 504 0
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 6164 193.43
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2972 193.455
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5 193.47
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 550 193.495
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 41 193.53
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 69 193.54
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 199 193.59
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5253 193.3404
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3742 193.4
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 101 193.41
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3 193.42
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 193.43
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 193.49
2024-03-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 207 193.5
2024-03-22 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 772 0
2024-03-21 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 2945 193.6601
2024-03-21 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 193.81
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1973 189.9201
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 317 189.94
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 189.941
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 105 189.95
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 20 189.96
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5 189.97
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 80 189.98
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 425 190
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 190.001
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 237 190.01
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 15 190.02
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 13 190.03
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 10 190.055
2024-03-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 190.345
2024-03-10 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 1896.98 185.82
2024-03-10 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 1210.85 185.82
2024-03-10 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 2324.08 185.82
2024-03-10 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 3783.9 185.82
2024-03-10 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6115.74 185.82
2024-03-10 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1345.55 185.82
2024-02-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12629 0
2024-02-19 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3513 0
2024-02-19 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 7710 0
2024-02-19 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 10335 0
2024-02-19 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12629 0
2024-02-19 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 3615 0
2024-02-19 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 10536 0
2024-02-19 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12178 0
2024-02-19 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12432 0
2024-02-19 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12629 0
2024-02-19 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 16435 0
2024-02-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 14941 0
2024-02-19 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 31960 0
2024-02-06 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 7047 182.6658
2024-02-06 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9453 181.9028
2024-02-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5500 186.365
2023-12-20 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 220 0
2023-12-20 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11491 176.83
2023-12-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 175
2023-12-19 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 178
2023-12-19 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 6771 177.4551
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 5665 0
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 423 176.3
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 32 176.34
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 176.43
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 488 176.55
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 459 176.58
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1253 176.59
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 900 176.631
2023-12-19 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 176.64
2023-12-19 Gangestad Nicholas C director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1000 176.6092
2023-12-18 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28768 48
2023-12-18 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 28768 175.0065
2023-12-18 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option 28768 48
2023-12-18 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 9800 177.05
2023-12-18 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 10400 176.0497
2023-12-18 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4600 176.8131
2023-09-01 Gangestad Nicholas C director D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 81 172.86
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 51 172.87
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 37 172.88
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 30 172.89
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 98 172.9
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4 172.91
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4580 172.92
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 36 172.93
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 11 172.95
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 36 172.96
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 56 172.97
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 114 172.98
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 38 172.99
2023-08-14 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 22 173.025
2023-08-10 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner D - P-Purchase Common Stock 39641 168.0153
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-09 STATE FARM MUTUAL AUTOMOBILE INSURANCE CO 10 percent owner I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-08-10 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7002 170
2023-08-03 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1799 172.13
2023-08-03 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 275 172.17
2023-08-03 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 8000 42.46
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6370 42.46
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3630 42.46
2023-08-03 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 171.607
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3630 172.2019
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 6370 169.5983
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 3630 42.46
2023-08-02 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 6370 42.46
2023-08-03 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 8000 42.46
2023-08-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4985 173.21
2023-08-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 73 173.24
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 363 170.39
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 8118 170.4
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 490 170.41
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 424 170.42
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 105 170.43
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 295 170.44
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 26 170.45
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1 170.47
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 26 170.48
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 52 170.49
2023-08-02 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 170.52
2023-07-31 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 12765 171.4592
2023-07-27 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 7500 42.46
2023-07-27 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7500 42.46
2023-07-27 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 7500 168.1787
2023-07-27 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 19859 168.1996
2023-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 0
2023-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1586 132.06
2023-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 922 132.06
2023-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 4129 133.03
2023-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 56 132.06
2023-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 234 132.06
2023-06-01 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 4129 133.03
2023-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 230 132.06
2023-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 351 132.06
2023-06-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 230 132.06
2023-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 619 132.06
2023-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 546 132.06
2023-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 2342 133.03
2023-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 230 132.06
2023-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 351 132.06
2023-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 230 132.06
2023-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 619 132.06
2023-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 11651 133.03
2023-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 413 132.06
2023-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1635 132.06
2023-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 546 132.06
2023-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 762 132.06
2023-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 546 132.06
2023-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2993 132.06
2023-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 922 132.06
2023-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 52619 133.03
2023-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 5422 132.06
2023-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2581 132.06
2023-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7891 132.06
2023-06-01 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 35268 133.03
2023-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21047 133.03
2023-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2993 132.06
2023-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 922 132.06
2023-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3156 132.06
2023-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5038 133.03
2023-06-01 CLAYTON NORMA director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 133.03
2023-06-01 Dempsey Patrick director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-06-01 KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER J director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-06-01 KOELLNER LAURETTE T director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-06-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-06-01 RUPP JOSEPH D director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-06-01 West Nadja director A - A-Award Common Stock 1240 0
2023-05-14 Ford Bradley Executive Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-03-14 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1651 155.07
2023-03-14 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8377 155.07
2023-03-14 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14137 155.07
2023-03-10 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3972.86 167.85
2023-03-10 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 4066.13 167.85
2023-03-10 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 2439.68 167.85
2023-03-10 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6099.2 167.85
2023-03-10 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 1109.53 167.85
2023-03-10 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 2708.04 167.85
2023-03-10 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1415.89 167.85
2023-03-07 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 523 175.89
2023-03-07 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2180 175.89
2023-03-07 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6621 175.89
2023-02-20 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 9944 0
2023-02-20 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 6766 0
2023-02-20 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 14952 0
2023-02-20 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 31982 0
2023-02-20 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 3617 0
2023-02-20 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6924 0
2023-02-20 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 11769 0
2023-02-20 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 10191 0
2023-02-20 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 9828 0
2023-02-20 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 10105 0
2023-02-20 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 14952 0
2023-02-20 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3081 0
2023-02-03 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1962 177.9905
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28768 48
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 16589 177.1353
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16589 65.8
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 28768 177.1344
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 16589 65.8
2023-02-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 28768 48
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2400 176.61
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 530 176.64
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1659 176.66
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 50 176.66
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 61 176.67
2023-02-02 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 176.68
2023-02-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2613 167.995
2023-01-31 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 180 0
2023-01-30 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3710 168.34
2023-01-30 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 890 168.41
2023-01-30 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 168.42
2022-03-06 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-01-01 Hanners Noah C Executive Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-12-20 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 2800 134.71
2022-12-20 Topalian Leon J Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 134.735
2022-10-26 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3000 137.29
2022-10-25 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 7407 0
2022-10-24 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 495 134.37
2022-10-24 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 134.38
2022-10-24 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1755 134.41
2022-09-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-09-01 LAMACH MICHAEL W director I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-08-10 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 141.639
2022-07-26 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 25 122.54
2022-07-25 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3407 122.17
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28768 48
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28768 112.915
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20000 112.179
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 6000 0
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 28768 0
2022-06-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 28768 48
2022-06-01 CLAYTON NORMA A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 130.71
2022-06-01 WALKER JOHN H A - A-Award Common Stock 1759 0
2022-06-01 KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER J A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2022-06-01 KOELLNER LAURETTE T A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2022-06-01 RUPP JOSEPH D A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2022-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 963 132.46
2022-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 4417 0
2022-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 549 132.46
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8642 132.46
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3009 132.46
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 927 132.46
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 0
2022-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 130.71
2022-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 8642 132.46
2022-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 4202 0
2022-06-01 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 766 132.46
2022-06-01 Dempsey Patrick A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2022-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1595 132.46
2022-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 0
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1696 132.46
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3009 132.46
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 927 132.46
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 0
2022-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 130.71
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 53553 0
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8642 132.46
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 5451 132.46
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2595 132.46
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 38656 130.71
2022-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 38656 0
2022-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 549 132.46
2022-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 0
2022-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 2384 0
2022-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 963 132.46
2022-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 766 132.46
2022-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 231 132.46
2022-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 549 132.46
2022-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 4202 0
2022-06-01 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 231 132.46
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 21421 0
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8642 132.46
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3773 132.46
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1131 132.46
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 0
2022-06-01 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 5522 130.71
2022-06-01 West Nadja A - A-Award Common Stock 1262 0
2022-05-15 Hollatz John J Executive Vice President D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-04-26 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4000 160
2022-03-25 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 2597 154.54
2022-03-25 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 1003 154.67
2022-03-24 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 2945 152.8679
2022-03-24 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 4905 0
2022-03-24 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4000 153.6856
2022-03-23 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 16589 65.8
2022-03-23 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 16589 148.275
2022-03-23 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 16589 0
2022-03-23 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 16589 65.8
2022-03-22 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 800 0
2022-03-22 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 4436 146.0336
2022-03-21 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 914 143.43
2022-03-21 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 4452 0
2022-03-10 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 767.69 130.01
2022-03-10 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 2653.89 130.01
2022-03-10 Frias James D EVP and Special Advisor to CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 9201.21 130.01
2022-03-10 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1745.06 130.01
2022-03-10 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6345.66 130.01
2022-03-06 Laxton Stephen D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-21 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 14978 0
2022-02-21 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 28427 0
2022-02-21 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 17898 0
2022-02-21 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 12337 0
2022-02-21 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 3815 0
2022-02-21 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 9884 0
2022-02-21 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 8118 0
2022-02-21 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 14978 0
2022-02-21 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 7524 0
2022-02-21 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 8300 0
2022-02-21 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 7858 0
2021-12-22 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 300 0
2021-12-17 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8000 115.625
2021-09-23 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - G-Gift Common Stock 2500 0
2021-09-01 CLAYTON NORMA director D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-03-19 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 995 0
2021-08-12 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 5169 123
2021-08-13 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - S-Sale Common Stock 3431 127.4
2021-08-10 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 865 0
2021-08-11 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3900 123.245
2021-08-11 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 1110 123.33
2021-08-11 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 679 123.3397
2021-08-11 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 114 123.34
2021-08-11 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 123.365
2021-08-10 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33000 48.8
2021-08-10 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - M-Exempt Common Stock 25000 47.59
2021-08-10 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 58000 112.0884
2021-08-10 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - M-Exempt Stock Option 33000 48.8
2021-08-10 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - M-Exempt Stock Option 25000 47.59
2021-08-05 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3792 101.8753
2021-08-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - M-Exempt Stock Option 47581 59.07
2021-08-04 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 47581 59.07
2021-08-04 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 47581 105.796
2021-08-04 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Option 47581 59.07
2021-08-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 47581 59.07
2021-08-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - G-Gift Common Stock 1951 0
2021-08-03 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 47581 105.15
2021-07-29 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 3171 101
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 5741 96.73
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 800 96.76
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1386 96.78
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 3476 96.7814
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 224 96.79
2021-07-26 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 373 96.805
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 725 96.6668
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 19 96.685
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 96.6703
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 100 96.6703
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 96.665
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 96.65
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 96.6503
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 96.6503
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 175 96.664
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 217 96.657
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 51 96.657
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - S-Sale Common Stock 3449 96.6109
2021-07-26 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - G-Gift Common Stock 5000 0
2021-06-01 RUPP JOSEPH D director A - A-Award Common Stock 1354 0
2021-06-01 KOELLNER LAURETTE T director A - A-Award Common Stock 1354 0
2021-06-01 KEARNEY CHRISTOPHER J director A - A-Award Common Stock 1354 0
2021-06-01 West Nadja director A - A-Award Common Stock 1354 0
2021-06-01 WALKER JOHN H director A - A-Award Common Stock 1941 0
2021-06-01 Dempsey Patrick director A - A-Award Common Stock 1354 0
2021-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 2803 0
2021-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 393 102.54
2021-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 887 102.54
2021-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 770 102.54
2021-06-01 Murphy Gregory J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 6191 110.74
2021-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro A - A-Award Common Stock 1559 0
2021-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 393 102.54
2021-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 643 102.54
2021-06-01 Keller Michael D Vice Pres. and Corp. Contro D - F-InKind Common Stock 739 102.54
2021-06-01 FELDMAN CRAIG A. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 FELDMAN CRAIG A. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 520 102.54
2021-06-01 FELDMAN CRAIG A. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1502 102.54
2021-06-01 FELDMAN CRAIG A. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2664 102.54
2021-06-01 FELDMAN CRAIG A. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3706 0
2021-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 393 102.54
2021-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 872 102.54
2021-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 770 102.54
2021-06-01 Needham Daniel R. Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 17518 0
2021-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3741 102.54
2021-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8692 102.54
2021-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 5483 102.54
2021-06-01 Topalian Leon J President and CEO A - A-Award Stock Option 54179 110.74
2021-06-01 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 4540 102.54
2021-06-01 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Common Stock 7630 0
2021-06-01 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 8692 102.54
2021-06-01 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP D - F-InKind Common Stock 3794 102.54
2021-06-01 Frias James D CFO, Treasurer and EVP A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3741 102.54
2021-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8692 102.54
2021-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3027 102.54
2021-06-01 Sumoski David A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 516 102.54
2021-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 968 102.54
2021-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1604 102.54
2021-06-01 Behr Allen C Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3741 102.54
2021-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 8692 102.54
2021-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3027 102.54
2021-06-01 Utermark D. Chad Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 591 102.54
2021-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 1706 102.54
2021-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3027 102.54
2021-06-01 SLATE MARYEMILY Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3706 0
2021-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 393 102.54
2021-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 922 102.54
2021-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 770 102.54
2021-06-01 QUERY KENNETH REX Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 3706 0
2021-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 393 102.54
2021-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 644 102.54
2021-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 770 102.54
2021-06-01 Jellison Douglas J Executive Vice President A - A-Award Stock Option 7739 110.74
2021-06-01 NAPOLITAN RAYMOND S JR Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 3294 102.54
2021-06-01 NAPOLITAN RAYMOND S JR Executive Vice President A - A-Award Common Stock 6256 0
2021-06-01 NAPOLITAN RAYMOND S JR Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 7652 102.54
2021-06-01 NAPOLITAN RAYMOND S JR Executive Vice President D - F-InKind Common Stock 2664 102.54
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to Nucor's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn or introduce Jack Sullivan, General Manager of Nucor Investor Relations. You may begin your call.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's second quarter earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO; along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also here to participate during the Q&A portion of today's call. We've posted our second quarter earnings release and investor presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website, and we encourage you to access these materials as we'll cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, we'll begin the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I'd like to begin by highlighting two recent changes to our executive team. In June, Doug Jellison retired after 33 years with Nucor. Doug worked across many of our businesses and made tremendous contributions to Nucor over the three decades he was part of our team, most recently as EVP for Strategy. We wish Doug, [Luana] and his entire family the very best in retirement. And in May, Randy Spicer was promoted to Executive Vice President to run our bar and engineered bar businesses. Randy is a talented leader who has most recently served as President of Nucor Tubular Products. He's been with Nucor now for more than 20 years and we are excited to have him part of our executive team. Turning to our second-quarter performance, I'd like to congratulate our entire team on achieving the safest first half of any year in Nucor's history. With 52 of our 109 divisions accomplishing our ultimate goal of zero recordable injuries, these are fantastic results and I'd like to thank our 32,000 team members for your steady progress toward making Nucor the world's safest steel company. In terms of financial results, we generated earnings of $2.68 per diluted share in the second quarter, bringing our year-to-date earnings to $6.14 per diluted share. Second quarter earnings decreased compared to the first quarter, primarily due to lower average selling prices in both our steel mills and steel product segments. Returning capital to shareholders and maintaining a strong balance sheet are key components of our overall capital allocation philosophy, and we made progress in both fronts during the quarter. Nucor repurchased approximately 2.9 million shares for $500 million and Moody changed its outlook on Nucor's senior unsecured credit rating from stable to positive. One thing I'm especially proud of is the progress our team continues to make in advancing our long-term, value-creating strategy. During the quarter, we continued to make progress in growing our core steelmaking operations, while expanding into new downstream businesses. I'd like to just take a minute and highlight a few of these initiatives. At our Lexington, North Carolina Greenfield bar mill, we hit key milestones during the quarter and remain on track to commission the mill in the first quarter of 2025. At our West Virginia sheet mill, we've made considerable progress since our groundbreaking last fall and expect construction to wrap up by the end of 2026. As for recently completed projects, we continue to build momentum in production and shipments out of our Gallatin and Brandenburg mills. Gallatin shipped almost 500,000 tons for the quarter, establishing new daily and ship production records and in late June, we celebrated the grand opening of its new tube mill. At Brandenburg, we shipped nearly 60,000 tons in Q2, but we no longer expect to ship 0.5 million tons for the year, due to softer market conditions, elevated plate imports, and our focus on capabilities rather than volume. However, we will continue to focus on achieving full run-rate capabilities and becoming EBITDA-positive by year's end. We also took additional steps to expand the set of solutions we offer customers, recently announcing two acquisitions as part of our Expand Beyond strategy. As a reminder, this strategy involves targeting steel-adjacent businesses with attractive growth profiles, high margins, and compelling synergy potential. In June, we announced the planned acquisition of Rytec, a leading manufacturer of high-performance overhead doors. In conjunction with its acquisition, we're forming Nucor Door Technologies, our overhead door growth platform, which will include C.H.I. overhead doors as well as Rytec. Rytec has two manufacturing facilities in Wisconsin that produce high-performance doors for warehouse, auto dealerships, advanced manufacturing facilities, and cold storage. The company has a strong reputation for quality products and superior customer service. The combination of Rytec and C.H.I. to form Nucor Door Technologies allows us to offer customers a diverse portfolio, of residential and commercial doors. The acquisition is expected to close by the end of July, and we're excited to welcome Rytec's 300 team members to the Nucor family. Earlier in the second quarter, we closed on the acquisition of Southwest Data Products, a manufacturer and installer of data center infrastructure. This acquisition gives us expanded capabilities to serve a rapidly growing market, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and cloud computing. By combining the capabilities of Southwest Data Products, Nucor Warehouse Systems, and Nucor Buildings Group, we can now provide customers with nearly all steel products that go into a data center, from the building to the interior infrastructure. We believe the cross-selling opportunities that Rytec and Southwest Data Products create with existing Nucor business units will create meaningful value for our customers and our shareholders. Now, I'd like to take a minute to revisit our long-term growth plan and how the investments we're making today can create value for our customers and shareholders for years to come. In raw materials, we're investing in new technologies, to enhance our scrap segregation and recovery rates, while reducing our carbon footprint. In our Steel Mills segment, each investment is aligned with our broader strategy to increase Nucor's product mix towards higher-margin, value-added products to address specific customer needs in key markets. For steel products, we're investing in automation to drive efficiencies and create a safer work environment, and we're innovating new products and production methods that our customers value. And finally, we're investing in new downstream platforms where we identify steel-adjacent businesses underpinned by strong secular growth trends. Nucor embarked on this long-term growth strategy in 2020, when I became CEO. Over the past several years, we've accomplished a lot, but we've still got plenty left to do. The next two years will likely be our most capital-intensive with several active construction projects occurring simultaneously. We plan to fund this with operating cash flow and cash on hand, which was approximately $5.4 billion at the end of Q2. Our largest current project is the West Virginia Sheet Mill, which will begin supplying customers in the Midwest and Northeast, with a more sustainable sheet product once construction is completed in late 2026. Between now and then, we're excited about the start-ups of several other projects. In the first quarter of 2025, we'll begin ramping up our new Rebar Micro Mill in Lexington, North Carolina, to supply construction markets in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions. In the spring and fall of '25, we'll complete construction of two highly automated utility tower manufacturing plants, to serve the high-growth power transmission and telecommunications markets. After that, we'll be bringing on new finishing capabilities, including a new galv line and coating complex at Crawfordsville in late '25 and a second galv line at Nucor Berkley in mid '26. Each of these projects, along with several others throughout the company serve important roles. It's not about adding capacity, it's about a differentiated capability set for our customers, while doubling the through-cycle earnings potential for Nucor. We have crossed the midpoint of our multi-year CapEx plan, but several recently completed projects have yet to reach their full earnings potential. We know what it takes to accomplish the goals we've laid out for you at our Investor Day nearly two years ago and our leadership team is laser-focused on the execution required to get us there. Finally, I'd like to address concerns the domestic steel industry has, regarding unfair trade practices. Over the last 18 months, we've seen a material uptick in steel imported from Mexico and Canada to levels far above historic levels contrary to the Section 232 agreements with both countries. It's also clear that China and other countries have been evading the Section 232 tariffs, and other duties by transshipping steel through our neighbors to the North and South. Fortunately, a few weeks ago, trade representatives from the U.S. and Mexico announced an agreement designed to stop the flow of illegally imported steel from China and elsewhere. Under this new agreement, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Mexican steel that is melted and poured outside of North America. And Mexico agreed to raise its tariff rates on imports from countries it does not have free trade agreements with. In our view, this was an important first step to stop the surge of steel imports from Mexico and address the problem of circumvention. However, more stringent efforts are needed and any exceptions to this new requirement, including through the exclusion process, will largely negate the benefits of the agreement. And we still have concerns about trade practices involving Rebar, electrical conduit, and the rise in fabricated steel products coming in from Mexico. We urge the U.S. government to continue working with Mexican leaders to address each of these issues. We also urge Congress to pass the Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0. This legislation includes critical updates to the U.S. trade remedy laws that would enhance domestic industries' ability to defend against unfairly traded imports, with new tools to address Chinese cross-border subsidies, and expedite investigations of repeat offenders that simply move production from one country to another. We appreciate the bipartisan support that exists for strong trade enforcement. With that, I'll turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details on our Q2 financial results. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon. And thank you to everyone for joining us on the call this morning. Leon just highlighted how the Nucor team is continuing to advance the ball, on its long-term and value-creating strategy. And during the first half of 2024, the team also executed on delivering results, posting strong earnings of just under $1.5 billion and around $2 billion of cash from operations. During the second quarter, Nucor generated net earnings of $645 million or $2.68 per share, approximately 23% lower than earnings from the first quarter of the year. The majority of our overall change in earnings between the prior quarter is attributable to our Steel Mill segment. This segment generated pre-tax earnings of $645 million, a decline of roughly 40% from the prior quarter. Lower realized pricing, especially among our sheet mills, was the biggest single factor contributing to the segment reduced profitability. The Steel Products segment delivered pre-tax earnings of $441 million for the second quarter, roughly 14% lower than the first quarter. Although segment shipments increased in the second quarter, lower realized pricing, and decreased margins more than offset volume gains. Our Steel Products segment is composed of a diverse set of products and market solutions. And I'd like to highlight two of our groups that had more pronounced impact on the segment results during the quarter. First, our Tubular Products group saw earnings decline by more than 50% during the quarter, as those divisions work through higher price substrate in a declining price environment. Our Tubular Products group accounts for more than one out of every five tons sold from the Steel Products segment. Another group to highlight in this segment is our Joist and Deck operations. These divisions continue to perform well even as realized pricing for these products moderated from the record levels of prior years. Earnings from Joist and Deck declined roughly 5% from the prior quarter, but still accounted for more than half of the segment earnings for the second quarter. Our Raw Materials segment produced pre-tax earnings of approximately $39 million for the quarter. Overall, volumes and pricing were softer than the prior quarter, but lower operating expenses more than offset these headwinds. During the second quarter, the power of Nucor's business model allowed it to generate $1.5 billion in cash from operations. This strong cash generation is a key factor enabling Nucor to continue its balanced, consistent, and long-term approach to allocating capital and creating value. Our capital allocation framework includes maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet, providing direct shareholder returns, and enabling growth and value through investments. That balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation was on display again in the second quarter. Nucor's balance sheet has long been a foundational source of advantage, and an enabler of our long-term strategy. At the end of the second quarter, our total leverage stood at less than 1.2 times trailing 12-month EBITDA, and our cash on hand was a healthy $5.4 billion. And as Leon mentioned earlier, we're pleased to see Moody's revise our senior unsecured credit outlook in May, from stable to positive. The second quarter saw Nucor return just over $630 million back to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. These returns, when combined with the first quarter, yield direct shareholder returns of more than $1.7 billion year-to-date. While we target returning 40% or more of net earnings to shareholders, we've nearly tripled that rate on a year-to-date basis. And this demonstrates an important aspect of how Nucor thinks about managing shareholders' valuable capital. We either invest it to grow and create value, or we return it to shareholders. In addition to strong shareholder returns, during the quarter, we deployed more than $800 million of capital spending and more than $100 million in acquisitions. These investments and those to come, will help fuel the future earnings capacity of this company. Turning to our third quarter outlook. We expect consolidated earnings to be lower than the second quarter, primarily because of lower anticipated earnings from our Steel Mill segment. Earnings in the Steel Mill segment, are expected to decline meaningfully as realized pricing has recently continued to decline across most of our major product categories. We also expect sequential earnings to decline in our Steel Products and Raw Materials segments. Taken together, the magnitude of the sequential decline in consolidated EBITDA for the third quarter could resemble that of our second quarter. Taking a step back to reflect on the broader macro picture, while the U.S. economy appears to continue, to avert a more pronounced downturn, it's becoming more evident that activity has softened as the year has progressed. We've also seen an increase in imports year-over-year, and a higher for longer interest rate environment may have tempered or delayed some marginal demand. The confluence of these factors is driving margin pressure on several of our products in the near term. It's worth noting that there are several end markets that remain quite healthy, including construction activity related to semiconductors and other advanced manufacturing facilities, data centers, healthcare facilities, and energy and infrastructure projects. As the largest and most diversified steel producer in North America, Nucor is well-positioned to service each of these markets. With that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you might have. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Your line is now open. Please ask your question.
Bennett Moore:
Hi, Leon and Steve. This is Bennett on for Bill. Given it's been about 3.5 months since you first introduced your weekly CSP back in April, I was wondering if you could share any key takeaways you've received from customer feedback thus far? And furthermore, how has the strategy unfolded relative to your initial expectations?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, thanks, Bennett. I'll kick this off, and Noah, if you have any comments you'd like to add regarding the CSP and sheet. Look, first, I would tell you we're excited about what we're seeing in the market. I think in a down-market like we're seeing or a little softer market like we're seeing today, I think this is exactly where the long-term impact of CSP can be most meaningful to take out the speculation, the speculative buying in the spot market and create a relevant transparent published price. And so, again, I think it's going to take a little bit of time, to work-through a full cycle in the steel segment or the steel, sheet steel CSP side of things. But again, we like what we're seeing, we're hearing a lot of positive feedback from our customers and we believe it's helping us to solidify relationships with those customers whose demand is driven more by end-use market conditions, and less by speculation. And so, those are the customer relationships we value the most. And again, early days still, but again, we're liking what we're seeing.
Noah Hanners:
Yes, Bennett, this is Noah. I'd just add that as its core to our culture, we've done what we said we were going to do with CSP. We believe we've provided relevant timely pricing. And I think the market conditions over the last few months, have afforded us the opportunity just to prove our transparency in pricing. I'll say that the feedback we get from customers is our customers want to deploy their capital in a way that creates value for their customers, and not in managing working capital or buying opportunistically. So, we're going to continue to do what we've said we're going to do with CSP, remain relevant and timely with our pricing. And to your point about how do we measure success in the future, we'll gauge success, and we'll be able to see success when we see order entry better matching underlying demand. So I think it's a longer-term engagement, but we're committed and we're happy with our progress on CSP so far.
Bennett Moore:
Great, thanks. And if I could do one more. I think the color was clear on earnings for each segment and the comment relative to 2Q is helpful. But how should we think directionally about shipments for each segment looking into the third quarter?
Dave Sumoski:
I'm sorry, shipments related to what Bennett?
Bennett Moore:
For the Steel Mill segment and the Steel Products segment directionally expectations into the third quarter?
Dave Sumoski:
Yes. Look, I think there's a lot of talk in the market that's softer and are we heading for a cliff? And I would tell you, we don't feel that way at all. Certainly, we've seen pricing move off historic highs of '21 two and even parts of three, but it's moderated. We think we found some stability and this market has stabilized in most of our product groups from a demand picture. The back half of the year, we expect it to be relatively flat. Again, if you look at the overall market for the year, the ADC is expected to drop about 1%. So again, from a demand picture, things are really not too bad. And again, many of our products remain incredibly resilient, so specifically on the Steel Products sector, again, it's a very large sector for Nucor. It's not just buildings and Joist and Deck and in our Vulcraft facilities. We've got the fabricated rebar, we've got Skyline Steel. We've got our overhead door businesses in both C.H.I. and in Rytec now, and our data systems are racking. And so, it's an incredibly diverse group that's consuming about 22% of our overall steel products into it. So it's an incredibly large business segment for us. But specifically in buildings and products, we're seeing some stable order entry rates incoming; over the last few quarters, we've seen that very much stabilize. And so, we think the back half of the year, while we're working through some higher-priced inventory will continue to tick up and again from a demand picture, remain pretty resilient.
Bennett Moore:
All right. Thanks so much and best of luck.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. Appreciate it, Bennett.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partner. Your line is now open.
Martin Englert:
Hello, good morning, everyone. Can you provide an update on Nucor's raw material strategy, specifically upgraded low-copper shred products and low-emission iron-making to the extent that it's applicable, maybe this is longer-term, but if you could touch on electrolysis process for iron ore in your investment in electric?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Martin, we'd love to address that. I want to ask Al Behr, who's taken over our raw materials group here in a second to provide you a more detailed update. But I would tell you broadly for the last 25 years, Nucor has taken a very, very deliberate focus on controlling our raw material inputs across the spectrum. Over the last decade, decade and a half, we've been really focused on how do, we control more of that. How do we give ourselves the flexibility and optionality to be able to do that, for the long-term, but Al if you would maybe share some of the things that we're working on, some of the projects that are already completed, and where we're headed?
Al Behr:
Sure, Leon. And thank you, Martin, for the question. You asked just about our raw material strategy. I'd summarize it this way and say that what we're aiming to do is create competitive advantage by supplying our mills with the most cost-effective stream of inputs, and to do that while minimizing the embodied carbon in our finished products. And so that's our guiding light, and under that, then we execute that by building flexibility and adaptability into our raw material stream. And we've talked about that for a number of years and have had the opportunity to demonstrate that, through changes in the market - excuse me, in the market that we see. So one of those that gives us flexibility is low-copper shred. And I know you asked about that, and I'll share a few thoughts just on how we're attacking that area and how we think of it. And the first thing I'd share with you, Martin, is that low-copper shred isn't new for us, that we've been making that product for about 12 years at two different locations. And so, we've mastered the discipline of how to make it. We've mastered the discipline of how to use it in the mix. But you have seen recently a renewed investment and some newer investments in low-copper shred as we see the demand for high-quality metallics going up. And we're responding to that, by making additional investments in low-copper shred, to add to the flexibility that's so key to our strategy. And so in terms of where we sit today, I'd share with you, we can process today about 1.4 million tons of low-copper shred. And we're bringing on another 750,000 tons as we speak. So that will give us, in the very near future, about 2.1 million tons of capacity. And then as we look out another couple of years, I'd expect us to add another 3.5 million to 4 million tons of additional capacity, landing us somewhere in the 5.5 million to 6 million ton range for low-copper shred. But Martin, I'll share with you, if you think about the 4 million tons of DRI that we also make and you add to that 6 million tons of low-copper shred. It puts us at about 10 million tons of metallics that we control, which is about two-thirds of our needs. And so that's a sweet spot for us, because it gives us incredible control, while at the same time allowing us the ability to be very flexible and very opportunistic in the market and how we serve the rest of our needs. I know you asked about electric too, and I just want to talk just for a minute about that. I think what I'd say is we remain really excited about that project. It's got a long ways to go, but it's a very interesting technology. We remain an investor and are considering additional investments in that space. And Noah and I work on that together and are following that closely, that's got really interesting advantages for us, particularly in the lower carbon range. I wouldn't consider that a cost benefit, but that's primarily a green and sustainability benefit and really exciting technology.
Martin Englert:
Thank you for all of it -- excuse me, thank you for all the detail. That's helpful. If I could one last one there. Sequentially implied steel conversion costs seem like they stepped higher quarter-on-quarter. You guided to flat conversion costs in 3Q. Can you touch on what led to the sequential step-up in unit conversion costs in 2Q?
Steve Laxton:
Hi, Martin, this is Steve. Thanks for the question. The conversion costs really are a function of a few different things, a few different moving parts. And in the quarter, what you see is utilization rates were down a bit, that always affects our cost. But probably more pronounced, there is a flow of materials through our production processes that creates a little bit of timing differences. And that causes the conversion cost to look higher on a quarter-over-quarter comparison. I think the most important thing probably, for you to take note of is that input costs right now are moderating, consistent with what you see with CPI or other indicators.
Martin Englert:
Okay. Excellent. Thanks for the additional color there.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Martin.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas. Your line is now open.
Tristan Gresser:
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the policy front. When you look at the upcoming elections, what risks do you see? I mean, for instance, solar and wind have been source of growth and potential upside for your business. So how concerned are you of any potential new administration removing some of the funding for those areas?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Tristan, it's really hard to speculate today on what might come in a change of control in the administration. From a macro standpoint, I would tell you, Nucor has had incredible success with both Democratic as well as Republican candidates in office. As we think about that, again, not trying to completely evade your question, or be so ambiguous, would there be some pressure on IRA and would there be some potential for that? Yes, we've heard the same rumors as well. What is the overall impact to Nucor? Well, it's really hard to predict, what I would tell you is our strategy is to invest in the long-term. We're not overweighted to any single side of the market. So we serve an incredibly diverse range of customers, have an incredible range of capabilities for those customers. So we're not so overweighted to offshore wind or certain elements of that, that if it changed, it would be impacting the Nucor. But on the other side of that, if those change, do you see the benefits and some tailwind from tax relief less regulation for investment moving forward? And so again, it's really a very difficult question to speculate on what might happen tomorrow with a different - a different President. And so, we'll just have to wait and see. But again, I love how we're positioned. I love the breadth and strength of our portfolio and where we're headed that I think is going to continue to serve this marketplace incredibly well.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. No, I understand and I appreciate the color. And as a quick follow-up to that, when it comes to trade, a little bit again, what do you believe should be the new administration number one priority when it comes to steel? I mean, you've been vocal about Vietnam being an issue. Is there a specific trade case against the country and Mexico, the new deal. To your understanding, does Brazil have an exemption? Yes, where do you see where - what would you be pushing for?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, you touched on some of that. And what I would tell you is we've always advocated for is not free trade, its fair trade. To make sure that our trading partners are actually following the TRQs that are put in place, things like the USMCA. So we're - we think it's the right first step that the administration put into place a few weeks ago with Mexico, it's not enough. We still have concerns with rebar, with electrical conduit, with some other products that we see are surging that have to get, brought back into control. We've looked at the fabricated steel products sector over the last several years has more than doubled its import levels from about 1 million, 1.2 million tons. We believe that's closer to 2.4 million tons today, that has got to get curved, that has got to get - brought into control. And then again, the other piece of all of that is if we begin to pick apart, the most recent announcements with exclusions, it was all for nod, it won't have any teeth put into it. So again, you're going to see Nucor continue to advocate vocally, and in Washington with - regardless of the administration to create a level playing field that, protects this industry from illegally dumping subsidized steels, from making out into the shores of the United States.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. That's very clear. And maybe the last one, if I can squeeze that in, on plate, you made a big pricing adjustment last month. So what are you seeing from a demand perspective? Do you think you've hit the bottom in terms of prices? You're starting to see a bit more stable demand environment, or is there further adjustment to come? And if you can touch on the little - the various end-user - end markets that would be appreciated?
Leon Topalian:
Tristan, I'll ask Brad Ford to speak to - our current outlook in the play group and go from there Brad.
Brad Ford:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. Thanks for the question, Tristan. I think it's important to start with some context. We're coming off with some pretty strong years for plate. Really, '21, '22, and '23 were pretty robust. So as we think about this market being a little bit softer, there's a couple of things to address. One, we are seeing some softness in the more interest-rate sensitive portions of the market, namely kind of vertical construction, some of the heavy equipment and agriculture side. And two, and most significantly, back to the import conversation, we were challenged in the first half of this year by meaningful - meaningfully higher levels of imports, which gained some market share and put pressure on pricing. This pressure on pricing has led our distribution customers to take a pretty cautious approach to purchasing, as they try to right-size their inventories. All that said, we do see some bright spots. And as we think about the second half of the year. Back to imports, we've seen certain countries use up almost two-thirds of their quota really through the first five months of this year. So, we expect a slightly lower import picture in the second half. Bridge and power transmission markets remain strong. And what we're hearing from our customers and developers is onshore wind is really going to pick up, kind of late in the second half. And then there's the impact from IIJA funding and project awards really as we think about those ticking up here in late '24 and early '25, which supports not just plate, but our structural businesses and a lot of our steel products.
Tristan Gresser:
Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Tristan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Chris LaFemina from Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Chris LaFemina:
Hi, thanks, operator. Hi, guys, it's Chris LaFemina from Jefferies. Leon, you mentioned automation in the Steel Products segment and you've alluded to it a bit in the past. But I was wondering if you could kind of elaborate on how automation could impact your margins. I mean, what sort of cost benefits might you see? Is this sort of the type of stuff that you just need to remain competitive or do you think that you can become an even lower-cost producer relative to the rest of the industry, by some of the automation initiatives that you're putting in place?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Chris. Appreciate the question and I would tell you, I like our position where we sit today. I think we are cost-competitive with anyone in the world. And again, we have always advocated we will compete against anyone in the world as long as it's done fairly. Again, back to the import question. But regarding automation, regarding AI, it's something that I would tell you Nucor has embraced and embracing, and the changes are coming at an incredible rate of speed. And so, we're seeing the potential applications of AI and automation in a whole raft of different areas of our businesses, technologies that we're using to deploy to create safer outcomes from our team members, to create cost advantages, to create efficiencies. And so I'd like Chad Utermark, who is over our innovation group and maybe John Hollatz to just touch on maybe a few of those specifics. Chad and John, if you would give Chris a little more detail and background of what we're doing, how we're embracing that.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. Yes, Chris, not only it is a cost opportunity, but it's a flexibility opportunity, especially in our businesses that face penalty and also a safety opportunity for our teammates. When you think about Expand Beyond, yes, we're going to continue to invest and look for businesses so that we can bring technology that, will allow us to be more efficient and take care of our customers. Some specific examples in our Nucor racking group, we've invested and we have robotic well cells that are operating at several of our facilities right now, and we are excited about what we're seeing there. We've mentioned this before, but our two new tower and structured Greenfield plants, they have highly automated material handling equipment, as well as robotic plasma and well cells. And we look forward into the spring and fall of next year, as we bring those plants online and see the automation take place. As a reminder, many of our downstream businesses in Nucor face these demand fluctuations through the cycle. And what we are seeing is that automation in key manufacturing areas can really help us navigate that demand fluctuation so that we can really take care of our customers. John?
John Hollatz:
Yes. Thank you, Chad, and thank you, Chris, for the question. I'll share a couple of other examples from a few of our operations. One is our SBQ mill in Memphis, Tennessee, where here our team has embraced AI, to optimize the production scheduling of a very complex steel-making process. We've been able to reduce the man-hours committed to this process by about 80% through the use of AI. In addition to that, we also benefit from yield savings, reducing working capital and operational efficiencies. Switching gears to another project, for the last six years, we have been developing a robotic joist line at Vulcraft in South Carolina. Joist production traditionally has been a very labor-intensive process. This new robotic line, which we have been operating now for about one year, utilizes patented robotics and vision technology, to perform the assembly and welding of joist. This is really a game changer for our team, and we're looking to grow this across the rest of our joist operations in the future.
Steve Laxton:
Hi, Chris, this is Steve. I'll just add on one other thing to address your question about advantage or not. Nucor has always been about creating production efficiencies, that's how we win. And so, if you think about the scale and reach of what we do, any technology advantage is leveraged across a bigger system for more, more gains. So the - I'll call that a scale efficiency if you want to. But Nucor is unparalleled in our industry and the ability to be best.
Chris LaFemina:
Thank you. That's very helpful. I appreciate that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Philip Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Philip Gibbs:
Hi, good morning.
Leon Topalian:
Good morning, Phil.
Philip Gibbs:
So you called out in the press release $137 million of start-up costs. Is the vast majority of that related to Brandenburg at this point?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hi, Phil, this is Steve. It's really two projects, Brandenburg, which is slightly - a little bit bigger in the quarter impact in West Virginia. As we - as we're accelerating the spending at West Virginia, you're seeing more - a little bit more impact there.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. Are you also including on non-cash costs in that number?
Steve Laxton:
No, no, generally not. It's generally contractor work and site-specific work.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. That leads me into to my next question. So West Virginia, I think plan is to get it started at least in terms of some level of commissioning in 2025, but it sounds like it's probably more so in the back half of the year based on your slide deck. And then also ramping throughout '26 and '27 as you build product capabilities. Is that the way to think about it?
Steve Laxton:
It's a year later. So back half of end of '26, Phil, is when we'll ramp up Brandenburg into '27. I'm sorry, West Virginia, not Brandenburg. Yes, West Virginia.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. And you all said in your deck that conversion cost is expected to be flat quarter-on-quarter. Did you have any - anything from a maintenance perspective to call out in particular in 2Q? And do you have any maintenance outages in the third quarter, anything beyond normal?
Leon Topalian:
And then, Phil, the only - in terms of overall in the company, you won't notice it necessarily, but in some of the segment numbers, some of those maintenance costs at our DRI plants as we have outages do swing the - swing the cost impacts, a little bit in that segment.
Philip Gibbs:
How is that going for steel?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, for steel now, there's - you shouldn't see any pronounced impact heading into the third quarter.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. And then lastly from me, any update in terms of what to think about CapEx for this year, or next to the extent that you didn't mention it? Thank you.
Steve Laxton:
Yes, Phil. The guidance we've given on the year is about $3.5 billion for CapEx spend, we'll keep an eye on that. We'll update as we have in the past years as we get closer to the end of the year if we see any meaningful adjustment to that. And then Leon mentioned it in his prepared remarks at the outset of the call that, for the next couple of years, you'll see an elevated level of capital spending as we move through some of these projects. It's about $6.5 billion of really the larger projects that you - that you'll see us move forward on in the next couple of years.
Philip Gibbs:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Phil.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Hacking from Citi. Your line is now open.
Alex Hacking:
Yes, good morning. I wonder if you could maybe comment on how much incremental steel demand, if any, you're really seeing from the IIJA at this point, or is that still something that's on the horizon? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. What I would tell you, Alex, is a couple things. If we think about those three pieces of legislation, I would tell you the CHIPS Act is by far the most out-front, we're seeing that steel getting processed and put through and again that moving at a much higher rate. We're - I think follow that by some of the IRA, particularly in your torque tubes and some of the applications within the wind and solar. And then lastly, and again still early innings on the infrastructure bill itself. And so, one of the things to keep in mind is that through-cycle kind of start to finish, by the time the state requests the funds till it's, seeing - hit the order books could be two years. So again, we have a long maturation process that's in there from the federal package pass to the state actually getting the money for the bridge roadwork, or the infrastructure that they want to rebuild in that state. So that we believe will continue to increase in the years to come, as more and more states continue to move further up that process map, of actually getting those funds into the States, but it's still early days.
Alex Hacking:
Okay. Thanks. And then just a follow-up on Brandenburg, if I could. Right now, it's operating around 20% utilization rate, and if the plate market was booming, is there anything stopping Brandenburg from a technical perspective to ramping to a 100% utilization rate over the next six to 12 months, or are you still in that start-up phase proving out the capabilities phase and if the mill is really not ready to run at that rate yet? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, really, really good question, Alex. And here's what I would tell you. The short answer is no. We anticipate and the team at Brandenburg continues to do an amazing job of bringing that mill online. So, we expect that even despite market conditions, that mill will be able to achieve its full run-rate capabilities in 2024. Now we'll decide how long we need that and how long they run at those capabilities. But from a technical perspective, yes, they're still working out some bugs, but there's nothing materially that's going to keep us from achieving that full rate capacity situation by year's end. And again, we'll be mindful as we think about how we introduce those types to the market. Obviously, we know our plate market, we know the customers and again, we've been selling in the plate market for over 20 years now. So - and we'll be mindful about how we think about that. At the same time, balancing, that team's got to be able to achieve that so that when it's required, they know they can hit that last gear and produce all the tons that are required for our market.
Alex Hacking:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Thank you, Alex.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Timna Tanners:
Hey, thank you, and good morning, everyone. I have a near-term question and a big quick-picture question. So in the near-term, I wanted to ask about the magnitude of EBITDA decline commentary and if it was more about pricing than volume again as you said last quarter? And then same concept, but just wanted to follow-up on the downstream segment. If indeed the squeeze in tubular was about the higher cost substrate and that should be normalizing, joist and deck should be normalizing, should we not see like a smaller magnitude of decline in the downstream?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Look, Timna that's a fair assumption and assessment. What I would tell you is we think about products, there - the reason we forecasted a decline in Q3 is a few reasons. One, they're still working through some of that higher-priced backlog that's going to - we know is going to flow through in the coming weeks and next couple of months. However, again, one of the bright spots as we think about where inflation is, unemployment is a little bit more elevated, seeing the Fed's appetite or at least intimation for some rate cuts, that certainly could have some considerable impact, particularly to the product segment that, you would see more likely in the back-half of the year, Q4 and into Q1. But again, there's - we know what our backlogs are. Those backlogs are strong, and again from a demand picture in the Vulcraft and joist and deck, we're out for the rest of the year in terms of that backlog strength, but we also know what that pricing is. And again, we're going to see some squeeze on that, as we get into Q3.
Steve Laxton:
Yes, Timna, I'd just add to what Leon said, the first part of your question about the near term. It's much more about pricing and margin pressure than it is volume pressure. So you were correct - in that assumption.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thanks. And then taking a step back on the big picture, there is an incredible amount of appetite for grain-oriented electrical steel, and also for further options on automotive exposed. And I know we've talked about this in the past, but I've been hearing Gallatin can make thicker grades, I know West Virginia is targeting auto. Can you just remind us, A, when could you make some of these other auto grades and compete more broadly in the auto sector? Is that still the design? And is grain-oriented even on your radar still? I just wanted an update there. Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Timna, I'll kick it off and certainly open it up to anyone that you know wants to add some thoughts. But look, as we think about the auto sector, over the last couple of years, we're supplying in that 1 million -- 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons annually. So it's a customer base we know. We've got a great relationship with many of the big OEMs. Their appetite for our iconic steels has been incredible. We've achieved the Supplier of the Year Award with General Motors for going on five years and hopefully, that will continue. And so, our expectation is to double that volume in the next several years. And so, as you see West Virginia come online, that is going to be a key focus for us. How we think about how far upstream we go into that, like the exposed automotive is we'll wait and see. Again, we know we can produce those steels, and we're going to be deliberate about how we think about doing that, because again, we want to make the most money that we can possibly make for ourselves, customers, and our shareholders. So, we're going to be really deliberate and mindful, A, not to get too overweighted to auto, but to be very deliberate about, how we continue to move up in that value chain and the higher-value products there. Electrical steels, look I would tell you stay-tuned. It's something that we've looked at. We again know that market, we know who's in it. We know the imports that are coming in, where it's being supplied and the end uses that could be potentially attractive as we move forward. So again, as Nucor continues to evaluate that we make no mistake, we've got some great partners. We've got some great relationships with those that are currently making it, around the world that we'll continue to evaluate that, and see if that fits where we want to go. And again, I would just tell you, stay tuned in the coming months.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, will do. Thanks, Leon and team.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partner. Your line is now open.
Martin Englert:
Hi, thanks for the follow-up. I wanted to see if you could touch on how you source electricity for your steel mills, and the typical duration for agreements? And how you might be thinking about protecting that cost, if the rates and capability of what you have to pay to get that start to rise in the future?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Martin, look I'm going to kick it off, and I'm really glad you asked that. Over the last three or four years and really since I took over as CEO, it's been something that we've talked about and not just talked, we've actually taken meaningful steps. So you saw a few years ago, our partnership with an investment in NuScale, the small module reactor and the advanced nuclear reactors that are getting built. Obviously, Bill Gates and TerraPower are doing their own SMRs and as well as two other manufacturers. So from a Nucor perspective, we have a large power consumption that we look at. We're in 40 different states. We've got 30 EAFs around the country that we need to build relationships with. But you got to understand as well, we've been doing this since 1968. We have incredible relationships with the utilities that we're in, because we're the largest power consumer in many of those states. But the macro picture to what you're asking, as you think about the green and digital economies, you think about the data center infrastructure build-out in the cloud computing that's got to be handled, that volume is insatiable. And so, we as a nation have really got to think about how are, we going to solve that energy need, because almost everywhere they're looking, these data centers now are growing from 100 megawatts to 600, 700, 800, 900 megawatts in demand. It's a huge, huge appetite. So you're going to see Nucor continue to look for opportunities to promote, invest in or otherwise position ourselves for the long-term. So that not only do we get surety of supply at the right cost and again, many of our contracts are long-term pricing. So they're not - we're not going to the market daily or monthly. We don't have - we will have firm power rates versus variable, but we have a consistent pricing model that, we're able to look out years and years into the future that will continue that. So again, it's a really important question for our nation, as we think about manufacturing as well, as the U.S. citizens and how they're going to be able to afford energy in the years to come. As we think about the current environment in decommissioning of our existing coal plants, about 70% of them will be idle by 2030. So, we've got to find and I think we have to reembrace as a nation, nuclear energy as the cleanest, most reliable form of energy that's out there. But Steve, anything you'd want to add on kind of current climate and pricing in utilities?
Steve Laxton:
Yes, Martin. I think just to build on what Leon said, a couple of points of emphasis. We're multi-site locations. So, it's not specific to a particular delivery point. It's also the vast majority of our power is purchased under a tariff rate agreement. And so those fluctuations tend to change slowly over time. But Leon highlighted really the more fundamental long-term importance of the company, or as a country. And we've, of course, you're familiar that we've put in place some purchase power agreements and we've taken some proactive steps to partner with ironically. I shouldn't say ironically with folks out of our sector, some technology companies on procurement, and worked with utilities closely on the development of their plans. So I'd say that we're very front-footed on this issue. Energy is about - it's a little less than $40 a ton cost last quarter. Roughly, give or take about 80% of that is electricity-based. So it is a meaningful part of our overall cost.
Martin Englert:
Do you - I understand there's a lot of facilities, but is there an average duration or goalposts, whether that's five years or 10 years under contract for the EAF?
Leon Topalian:
Martin, I would tell you that does vary. I'm not sure I've got a great average answer for you across the spectrum. What I would tell you is in most of those cases, they're multi, multi-year contracts that we're signing with the utilities. So they're now one to two years or five, eight, ten-year-type contracts. So all of those could be at different positions of where we sit in 2024, obviously, because of the timing and when those plants came online. So again, from the macro, it is a long-term contract is the way you could think about that.
Martin Englert:
You touched on this or alluded to this to some degree in your answer, but do you have concerns that higher electricity rates might stymy some of the reshoring activity. And potentially disadvantage some of the U.S. manufacturing base given U.S. has been more so an ideal market, at least from a cost of energy or electricity perspective historically versus some others globally?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, short answer, Martin, yes, I do. I think if you look today, the U.S. is building no nuclear power. Right now in China, they're building 27 facilities. And so I am absolutely - because again, we're talking - we're end-use customers. We're talking to some of the biggest companies in the country and the partnerships that we have with them and they are looking out five, eight, ten years and they know they can't get the power today. And so there are absolutely cases where we know projects are moving forward, because they can't meet the power requirements. So yes, is the short answer to that question of - it's an issue that has got to be dealt with, because it's sitting right at our front door. And again, we have an opportunity to embrace that, and to think about how we, again, as a superpower in the world, how we continue to proliferate manufacturing, support manufacturing and again the overall economy through our energy independence.
Martin Englert:
Okay. I appreciate all the color and commentary. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Martin.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call to Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. And once again, I'd like to thank our Nucor team for an outstanding first half performance and safety. Thank you for your efforts, your dedication to one another in helping us to achieve our goal, of becoming the world's safest steel company. I'd also like to thank our customers for giving us the opportunity to serve you each and every day. And finally, thank you to our investors for trusting us with your valuable shareholder capital. Thank you for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to Nucor's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] and today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Jack Sullivan, General Manager of Nucor Investor relations. You may begin your call.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's first quarter 2024 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Brad Ford over Fabricated Construction Products; Noah Hanners, Raw Materials; John Hollatz, Bar and Rebar Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial; Rex Query, Sheet Products; and Chad Utermark, New Products and Innovation. We have posted our first quarter earnings release and presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website and we encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let’s turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack and welcome everyone. I'd like to begin by congratulating our 32,000 Nucor teammates for a safe and profitable start to 2024. In the first quarter, we generated EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion and net earnings of $845 million or $3.46 per diluted share. For the quarter, we shipped a total of 6.2 million tons to outside customers, up 5% from the prior quarter and in line with our average quarterly shipments for 2023. Pricing also remained strong in the first quarter. Average steel mill pricing per ton was up nearly 10% compared to the prior quarter and slightly ahead of the average for all of 2023. For steel products, realized prices continue to moderate. However, prices have held consistently above pre-pandemic levels and will continue to generate robust returns. In keeping with our commitments to shareholders and our balanced approach to capital allocation, Nucor returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividend payments and share repurchases in the first quarter. We made good progress on key capital investment projects during the quarter. And as we have mentioned previously, our capital spending will increase this year as we get further along in the construction phase of our West Virginia Sheet Mill and our Lexington, North Carolina rebar micro mill. We're also advancing work on 2 downstream production facilities that are part of our Nucor Towers and Structures growth platform. On the safety front, our team delivered the safest quarter in Nucor's history with an injury and illness rate roughly 30% lower than that of Q1 last year. I'm incredibly proud of the steady progress we have been making since 2017 to drive down the number of safety incidents we experience. Our goal to become the world's safest steel company will require the steadfast determination, innovation and continuous improvement in how we operate. We have the most capable team assembled anywhere in the world who are all focused on delivering these results and taking great care of one another, our customers and shareholders. Building on our leadership position and sustainability continues to be a high priority and we kicked off 2024 with several exciting initiatives. In March, we signed an agreement with Mercedes Benz to supply Econiq-RE for vehicles produced at its Tuscaloosa, Alabama manufacturing plant. The Econiq-RE is made with 100% renewable energy and has a greenhouse gas intensity less than half that of extractive blast furnace based steel production across scopes 1, 2 and 3. Our agreement with Mercedes Benz is another example of how we're partnering with world class customers to reduce carbon emissions within their supply chain. We also announced a new initiative with Google and Microsoft to scale the adoption of clean energy technologies. Developers of such technologies often struggle to find creditworthy and large-scale energy customers to advance early stage projects. We aim to lower these obstacles by aggregating our energy needs with others like Google and Microsoft that will seek affordable, reliable and cleaner forms of energy. Going forward, we'll be working with energy providers, policymakers and other large energy consumers to advance this work. Nucor continues to receive recognition for our sustainability efforts. Earlier this year, Barron's Magazine designated Nucor the only steel company ranked among its top 100 most sustainable companies. Congratulations to our entire Nucor team for this well-deserved recognition of your commitment to operating sustainably each and every day. Turning to our commercial strategy, we're always looking for better ways to serve our customers, which has led us to introduce weekly pricing updates for our hot rolled coil sheet products. Nucor's consumer spot price or CSP for short will provide customers with reliable real time pricing information for hot rolled coil. The CSP will provide our customers with better information to make better decisions to meet their needs. Having real time pricing coupled with shorter lead times will help our customers reduce the risks inherent in price speculation. While the CSP pricing framework has only been in place for a few weeks, the customer feedback thus far has been positive. On the corporate strategy front, 2024 is off to a productive start. We recently announced the acquisition of Southwest Data Products, a reputable manufacturer and installer of data center infrastructure with an impressive blue chip customer base. With that, I'd like to welcome the 147 team members at Southwest Data Products to the Nucor family. In conjunction with this transaction, we're launching a new business unit, Nucor Data Systems to better serve the data center market. Southwest Data Products gives Nucor expanded capabilities in airflow containment structures, which help data centers run more efficiently by separating cold air from the heat generated by racks of server equipment. The team at Southwest has a strong reputation for engineering and manufacturing high quality products and installing them in a timely and professional way. They have also deep relationships with many of the largest data center, co-developers and hyperscalers, which Nucor can leverage to cross sell our other downstream products. The rise of artificial intelligence and the growing reliance on cloud computing are driving strong demand for the next generation data centers, and this market is expected to grow at double-digit annual rates through the end of this decade. We continue to evaluate other acquisition opportunities in high growth sectors, and we have a robust pipeline of compelling prospects aligned with steel adjacent growth trends. Before turning it over to Steve, I'd like to take a moment to comment on recent updates to our nation's trade enforcement policy. Earlier this month, I attended a World Steel Association meeting, where I currently serve as Chair. And during that meeting, we discussed the ongoing challenges posed by global production overcapacity. The U.S. Commerce Department recently published a final rule designed to strengthen its antidumping and countervailing duty regulations. These rule changes are a positive development for Nucor and the entire steel industry as they strengthen the enforcement of existing trade laws. We appreciate the Commerce Department for making these necessary changes, but we still believe it's crucial for Congress to pass the Level the Playing Field 2.0 legislation to give commerce additional tools that address trade distorting behaviors. With that, I'll turn it over to Steve, who'll share some more details on our Q1 financial results. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining our call this morning. The first quarter of 2024 saw Nucor advance its growth strategy, make meaningful commercial moves and continue to differentiate itself. We also had a solid start to the year on the earnings front with net earnings of $845 million or $3.46 a share. This was nearly 10% higher than our prior quarter earnings per share, but came in roughly 4% below the midpoint of our first quarter earnings guidance range. So I'd like to take a minute to share some color on that. First and most important, results from the 3 operating segments were generally in line with our forecast for the first quarter. However, certain administrative costs and intercompany eliminations exceeded our estimates. Some of the larger drivers have higher than expected administrative costs related to employee benefits such as medical insurance coverage. Intercompany eliminations had a more pronounced impact. Higher than expected eliminations were a function of two things. One driver was the delivery of more materials from new core divisions to our own construction projects than expected. This is predominantly a timing difference between our pre guidance assumptions and what actually materialized. The second driver was more activity and profits than anticipated between our operating divisions. As most of you know, Nucor has a diverse and integrated set of this aspect provides strategic benefit, synergies and risk mitigation over long periods of time. However, that same beneficial attribute can result in short-term adjustments to earnings recognition, particularly during periods of higher rates of change in volume and realized pricing, both of which occurred in the first quarter. Generally speaking, these intercompany eliminations are simply timing differences between segment level earnings recognition and the final sale to our customers. With respect to our operating segment results, our steel mills improved pretax earnings nearly 90% from the prior quarter, generating approximately $1.1 billion in pre-tax earnings for the first quarter. Improved results in our sheet business was the largest factor driving the quarter over quarter gains. That business saw approximately 11% increase in shipments percent higher realized pricing during the quarter. Moving to Steel Products, this segment delivered pre-tax earnings of approximately $512 million for the quarter. Total segment shipments were down approximately 4% from the prior quarter. We believe an unusually wet start to the year may have adversely affected some regional construction activity during the period. While margins for downstream steel products have receded from the historically high levels of recent years, segment continues to generate attractive returns and strong cash flows. Highlighting a few individual product lines, the first quarter saw higher pricing and margin from our tubular products divisions. This was more than offset by moderating contributions from our joist and deck, metal buildings and rebar fabrication operations. Our joist and deck business continues to be the largest single contributor to our steel product segment earnings. This business tends to have backlogs and lead times of 4 to 6 months. Consequently, we believe the earnings profile of our joist and deck business will likely stabilize as we approach the back half of the year given the relative stability we've seen in pricing over the last quarter. It's worth noting that for the foreseeable future, this business is expected to maintain results that remain considerably higher than pre-pandemic averages. Our raw material segment produced pretax earnings of approximately $10 million for the quarter. Overall, volumes were higher, but lower metallics prices compressed margin for the segment. Let me now turn our attention to the balance sheet and capital allocation. We began the year with a strong cash position and generated $460 million in cash from operating activities in the first quarter. These factors enabled Nucor to continue its balanced approach to capital allocation, enabling growth through investment, providing direct shareholder returns and maintaining a strong investment-grade rating. On the growth front, during the first quarter, we continued to advance our strategy deploying $670 million in capital spending with progress made on several greenfield and expansion projects described earlier. The first quarter also saw Nucor return over $1.1 billion back to its shareholders. This includes $134 million in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchases, which reduced our share count by 5.5 million shares. It has long been Nucor's practice to put capital to use or return it. This discipline was on display again in the first quarter, where repurchasing activity was higher than normal due to our sizable cash balance at the start of the year. Today, we continue to have a healthy cash and liquidity position, an enabler of our expected near-term CapEx plans and pipeline of acquisition opportunities. Nucor's balance sheet remains robust, a financial practice that both maintains a strong investment grade rating and enables our long-term orientation and success. We ended the quarter with a total debt to capital ratio of approximately 24% and total leverage of roughly onetime trailing 12-month EBITDA. Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2024, we expect consolidated earnings to be lower than the first quarter with reduced earnings from our Steel Mill and Steel Products segment, partly offset by modest improvements in earnings from our raw materials segment. Lower earnings from our Steel Mills segment are the largest drivers of our reduced outlook for second quarter earnings. For this segment, we expect slightly higher volumes to be more than offset by lower realized prices. We anticipate our sheet business will be the largest driver of change in results for the Steel Mill segment and for the overall company. Our steel product segment continues to moderate from historically high record levels of performance. For this segment in the second quarter, we expect higher volumes and lower realized pricing with the net effect being slightly lower earnings for the segment. For the raw material segment, stable volumes and improved margins should result in an overall higher profitability. Overall, across all businesses, backlogs remain healthy and in line with historic norms. However, the anticipated reduction in realized pricing for our steel mills and steel products segment in the second quarter are expected to lead to lower overall cash flows and earnings. On a macro level, the U.S. economy appears to demonstrate near term resilience. Net strength relative to recent past expectations is an overall positive. In addition, select end markets such as advanced manufacturing, data centers and infrastructure continue to show strength from secular trends. Taken collectively, near-term demand appears stable. Looking further out, we remain cautiously optimistic on demand fundamentals given the positive trends of reshoring, repowering and rebuilding. With that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners.
Martin Englert:
Within the Steel Mill segment, both bar and plate volumes were down double-digits versus last year. Also overall steel products volumes were down to a similar degree. Do you anticipate a similar trend of kind of double-digit declines are in these products are going to continue in 2Q? Or is the sequential volume improvement expected going to start to offset this where we'll see something potentially lower?
Leon Topalian:
Well, Martin, I certainly appreciate your question. As we look out, markets are moderating. I think one of the important things to keep in mind more broadly is when you think about the context of record years like '21, '22, '23. We believe '24 is going to be another strong year, maybe not as strong as 2024 however. When we see the specific people that play for our products either are flat or improving volumes Q-over-Q. So we expect Q2's volumes to be a little substantial, but a little better, excuse me, stronger. But as we look at pricing, it is moderating. But again, context is a really important thing. So, for example, in the product group, while that's coming off the historic highs, it is way, way above what we saw pre-pandemic levels. So we believe we've seen a pretty stable market out there I think regarding that group. And so again, I don't want to break out individual or break out individual pricing within those product groups. We're expecting Q2 to be a little softer, but again, it's relative. I still think there's going to be many of our product groups that are going to generate very robust returns for us and our shareholders. And a couple of those that are, as Steve mentioned in his opening remarks, if we look at markets across the segments really heat, the heavy equipment adding transportation is really the only area that we see declining a little bit from an overall demand picture. Other than that, construction, automotive, energy, service centers, we see either flat, stable or slightly improving as we head into Q2.
Martin Englert:
Within steel mills, the estimated conversion costs like it declined modestly versus the prior quarter. Would you expect similar sequential decline in 2Q on conversion cost per ton given higher volumes, maybe something similar to the year ago comparable period?
Dave Sumoski:
Our costs are down slightly, mainly because of the utilization rates being up at sheet mills and also at Gallatin [indiscernible]. We don't think that there's a whole lot more decline. So we think that the costs have stabilized. You can expect them to be maybe a little bit down, but it's a little bit what you saw in the first quarter.
Martin Englert:
If I could one last quick one, raw materials expected to improve in 2Q on both DRI and the recycling operations. What do you believe is going to drive the improvement in recycling given recent pricing trends and why has that been challenged from a margin perspective in recent quarters?
Noah Hanners:
Let's talk about recycling first, and I want to go back and just hit on your point about DRI as well. Really the answer is margin compression and scrap pricing has been lower. We peaked in December, we've seen declining prices month over month since, and we expect those prices to stabilize and stabilize in the May and as mentioned in the [indiscernible]. So we expect the normalization of margin there. We also are bringing online, a new advanced metal recovery plant, our Bushnell facility in Florida, and we've incurred some additional start-up costs related to our commissioning of that facility. We'll work through those costs early in Q2 and you'll see our -- that'll contribute to more normalized margins in the cycle as well. You mentioned DRI as well. I just want to make sure and provide some additional context there. We executed 2 extended outages in DRI, in Q3 going into Q4. So we're back to running higher rates, higher volumes of DRI. Now that this plants are back performing consistently and that's been advantageous to us through Q1 and will continue to be in Q2 as you see us running high rates of DRI in our melt pick. So we're able to not participate in higher cost pig iron market and run higher rates of DRI. So our DRI plants are back to performing at that levels that we saw before the outages.
Martin Englert:
You're adding the advance in recycling separation technology to one facility right now. Can you frame up the cost impact as to what it was in 1Q for the start-up costs there and what you might anticipate in 2Q?
Noah Hanners:
Yes. It was about $9 million additional in Q1. It will be minimal in Q2. We're nearly fully commissioned. And it is a standalone facility at Bushnell that allows us to recover higher rates of copper and aluminum. So it's not an add-on to one of our existing processes.
Martin Englert:
How many more of those do you have planned over the course of the year, if any?
Noah Hanners:
Nothing else this year. We're going to continue to learn from this process. It's really state of the art technology. We're going to take this and learn from the additional recovery we're realizing this process and then build out across the rest of our recycling platform to take this technology more broad.
Martin Englert:
And the crux of that is that allows you some increased optionality what you would charge with prime or substitutes at that facility to switch to some degree to an upgraded shred product, right?
Noah Hanners:
Yes, that's a different process. This is really for nonferrous material. So if you think about upgrading obsolete scrap or shredded scrap, we're doing that at one of our facilities now, Berkeley, we're producing about 2,500 tons per ship and really that is an offset of a replacement for prime scrap or pig iron in our process. So we've got that fully at scale now and we'll continue to expand that capability to our other mills as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Curt Woodworth from UBS.
Curt Woodworth:
I was just hoping to drill down a little bit more into the downstream product categories. Last quarter you talked about joist and deck order entry was up pretty substantially to start the year. Yes, we're still seeing pretty materially negative volume trends. So I'm just curious, did anything maybe change in the quarter? Did that kind of proceed as you expected? And then you commented that you do expect to see price stabilization in the back half of the year. But can you comment on maybe where margins stand today versus historical? I think historically joist and deck was around 10% to 15% operating margin. I know it's much higher than that now. And then you also talked about joist and deck accounting for the majority of that division. Could you frame that out anymore so we can have a better understanding of the EBIT contribution?
Leon Topalian:
I'll kick us off and then I'll turn it over to Brad and then Steve if there's any comments you'd like to make on the specifics in terms of margins. Look, our downstream products prove in general is perform incredibly well over the last several years. And I'm not looking at the data in front of me, but we had a run of 10 or 11 quarters where that group generated $1 billion of net earnings or better. Their performance over the last several years has been nothing short of incredible. And so I'm incredibly proud of what the team has been able to do, how they've come together to provide solutions, not just individual products, but taking care of our customers with the breadth of Nucor's strength, coming together and again leading the differentiated capability set in serving that market in a very different way. Again, I use the word moderating. We're seeing pricing moderate. But again, I'll let Brad speak a little bit more to some of the details, what he's seeing, what we're envisioning as we move forward and then go from there. Brad?
Brad Ford:
As you know, we produce many different downstream products and this breadth of product offering continues to be a significant differentiator for us. As we bring multiproduct solutions to our customers, specifically some areas of strength we're seeing right now in non-res, advanced manufacturing, data centers, institutional projects in healthcare and education. As Steve noted, quarter one started out a bit slow for us on the product side, driven mainly by some extreme weather and associated job site delays. That said, in light of current interest rate environment, we remain very optimistic about the resiliency in non-res construction. On the joist and deck side specifically, again, started the year relatively slow, but we've seen quote and booking activity accelerate pretty rapidly over the last 45 days with March industry bookings far outpacing what we saw in January and February. Couple that with backlogs that remain strong, we still sit about 25% above pre-pandemic levels and we expect improved volumes as we noted in Q2. On the pricing side, again, we've seen market price stabilize, remaining pretty consistent now for the last two quarters at levels far higher than historical norms, which we believe better reflect the value of the products and the solutions that we're bringing to the market. As I think about the balance of this year and the megatrends we've been discussing, I'm we're very optimistic. Product breadth and solutions focused approach means we're well positioned to take advantage of these mega trends. Like Leon said, I'm extremely proud of how our downstream products teams are executing, working together to take care of customers and continuing to drive the step change in earnings that we're generating.
Steve Laxton:
Curt, I'll just add on to what Brad and Leon have said. This is Steve. And Leon talked about the profitability being in a fundamentally different position. Our segment profits were over $0.5 billion from that segment this quarter. And if you go back pre-pandemic, we averaged call it, $450 million in EBITDA from that segment for a year. So we are fundamentally positioned different as a company today than we have been in the past. So when you reference this moderation, it has to be taken in a broader context of those along with demand trends that are Brad referenced that are pretty good. We're not going to get into the profitability particular products within that segment. We've not done that. But what I will point you to give you a little bit of an orientation. Again, Brad referenced that we have a very diverse set of downstream businesses, and 20% to 25% of our volume is from the joist and deck business and roughly 20% to 25% is going to be pipe and tube and about 20% to 25% is rebar fabrication. So I hope that gives you a good mix of the products that's set in that segment.
Curt Woodworth:
And then as a follow-up, can you kind of comment on how you see infrastructure spending evolving this year? I mean, it seems looking at kind of the bar and plate volumes, they're still somewhat static demand trends going on there. And then can you give us an update on how the Brandenburg plate mill is doing and if you still expect the similar level of volumes you're guiding to last quarter. And we'll turn it over.
Leon Topalian:
I'll kick this off and John, if I miss anything on the bar side, if you want to comment on, please jump in and then I'll maybe touch on Brandenburg's ramp. Curt, I'll just start with the 3 pieces of legislation and the great news that we've been talking about for way too long are passed right there. The money is there, it's in the books. Obviously the furthest along in the three of those pieces of legislation are the CHIPS Act. And we got 83 new semiconductor products that have been announced worth an estimated roughly $350 billion worth of CapEx that will be built out in the coming years. To date, '23 of those have broken ground and begun construction. So that's real. Those orders are coming. We're seeing that in flowing through into our different product groups. If we look at IRA Next, that's sort of the next, most advanced behind the CHIPS Act where again, when we look at renewables, particularly solar, for tubes, we're seeing those orders again in our books, being produced, being shipped and moving. And then last and probably the most lagging in that is IIJA or infrastructure that again, funds are there federally, got to flow through the states and then execute on the individual projects and highways, bridges and the like. That's still in the very, very early innings, and we're expecting in the years to come, next 2, 3, 4, 5, we'll see all 3 of those continue to ramp. We still estimate that the total between the 3 is somewhere between 5 million and 8 million tons annually over the next 4 or 5 years that again will have a positive impact. The thing that, as you look to Nucor in our strategy or growth plate, where we're going focusing, I mean, some of the megatrends are showing more than double-digit growth for the next 5 years like data centers, like towers and structures that we're in, that we're incredibly excited about that we also think is going to be an incredible tailwind. And most of our groups, not the least of which are playing, sheet beams and products will play a significant role. Do you think you'd like to add, John, on that?
John Hollatz:
I would add, we're certainly, as Leon noted, seeing a slowdown or not slowdown, but a delay in the infrastructure spending. But as we look at building out commissioning our mills in Lexington, North Carolina and Kingston, Arizona, you're going to be well positioned to take advantage of these dollars as they start to flow through. So we're optimistic about the long-term demand on long products and feel good about where we're going there.
Al Behr:
This is Al Behr. I'll just comment quickly on your question about Brandenburg. The Brandenburg ramp up continues to go according to plan for this year that we talked about on the last fall, which is about 500,000 tons for the year. Our volume in Q1 was about 50,000 tons. Obviously, it's going to be heavily weighted to the second half, but I'd expect to double that tonnage in Q2 and double that again in Q3 and Q4. So it continues to be a capability story. We shipped our first head plate for a tank railcar customer, so that's something new for us. We weren't able to take care of those customers before. It's a new capability. So we continue to tick off these new firsts for Nucor on how we can take care of our customers due to the capability Brandenburg gives us and the volume will come with it, just like we thought.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas.
Tristan Gresser:
Maybe to start with a quick follow-up on the downstream outlook. With what you said about joist and deck and prices normalizing and the volume direction. Is that fair to say that Q2 will mark the trough for the divisions? And when we look at the H2 outlook, given the visibility you have certain of your products, is it fair that we have more of a stable kind of environment from an earning perspective, but nothing yet to be more optimistic or positive in terms of earning momentum there.
Leon Topalian:
Tristan, I want to make sure I understood the question. Is it really framing to how the moderation is going to flow through to quarter-to-quarter earnings?
Tristan Gresser:
Yes, pretty much. And given if you have some visibility on certain products that are really big for the division like joist and deck and you're saying prices have stabilized. It looks to me that you have all the elements to say that Q2 would potentially mark the trough for the division. And then given the visibility you have, I'm just trying to understand if we're looking at more of a stable outlook in the second half of the year for the division, the steel product division? Or if given the positive commentary you mentioned on joist and deck, could we see even, I don't know, an uptick in prices, an uptick in margins and be a bit more positive on the earning direction for H2?
Steve Laxton:
I'll field this, and Brad can clean up any misses that I've got. But yes, we particularly with joist and deck, given the lead times and backlogs that we've got there that are pretty healthy, we've seen very good price stability relative price stability over the last call quarter or so. That does lead you to have more confidence in what the back half of the year might look like. I've been around too long to say that we're going to call it trough at this point. There's too much variability in our business model overall. But certainly for joist and deck, that's a very, very positive trend in terms of stabilization. And just sort of like Curt's questions earlier around the diversity of the Downstream Products segment, there's other parts of that part of our portfolio that don't have that much linked to their backlogs and lead times. So that's why I'd be a little hesitant to say that second quarter, a trough, but I would characterize your question as affirming the relative positive position of joist and deck.
A – Brad Ford:
Yes. Steve, the only thing I would add is from a volume perspective, non-res construction is somewhat seasonal. So Q1 tends to be a bit lower volumes on the product side. Q2 and Q3 are usually more robust and that's what we're seeing right now.
Tristan Gresser:
And you discussed a little bit data center and your recent acquisition. Am I right to understand that when you talk about the complementarity of certain downstream product that those data center will use joist and deck in order products? And if you could maybe give us a sense, quantified sense of how big this could be as a driver right now and maybe in the future?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I'll kick this off and then maybe ask Chad Utermark to borrow who's overall for M&A and new businesses that we acquire Tristan, but we're really excited about the opportunity that the long-term projections are. Boston Consulting Group is projecting about 12% to 14% year-over-year growth in data center construction over the next 4 or 5 years. Couple that with, again, just a little bit of a pivot here, couple that with the demand of power that many of these large hyperscalers need, you're talking hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of megawatts. So the infrastructure build out required, the energy requirements are prompting a few things. One, we're going to continue to grow in this space. Two, under Chad's leadership as we make these acquisitions and I shared earlier in my opening comments, we now have a data center group that will provide holistic solutions to our hyperscalers and other major data center builders. And so again, these are long-term, long established relationships that we have in the marketplace. And again, you're going to see Newport continue to move forward. Many of the questions we often get on these earnings calls are what are you going to do with the money? What are you going to do with the cash you're generating or sitting on? And again, we returned over 130% of that back to shareholders in Q1. But our focus without getting too far is going to be in the megatrends in this economy that we see are going to continue to generate incredibly strong and robust growth and returns for our shareholders, data centers being one of them, southwest makes the sort of pathways for cool air to come in and hot air to get out. In terms of that data center, the 147 team members that we look forward to welcoming into the Nucor family and or into the Nucor family. But do you have any other details that you'd share on the market in general in Southwest?
Chad Utermark:
Let me start by saying, we've been in this data center space for a while. Our new core buildings group along with our joist and deck and our beam, our products have supplied a lot of building structures for the space. They will continue to do that. They have great relationships with a lot of the hyperscalers the co-locators. We actually entered what I kind of call the racking or inside the data center, I think it may be the furniture in there, about a year ago through our racking division. And in 2023, we saw some tremendous growth there. And then we were able to acquire SWDP, 3 weeks ago as Leon mentioned. And these 147 team members, I mean, they're right down in the middle of the data center explosion. This acquisition is going to give us new capabilities to serve this growing market. And it's kind of hard to put a dollar figure on how big the inside of the data center, this furniture space that we're playing in is, but we estimate it to be probably north of $2 billion and growing, as Leon mentioned, double digits. So we really feel like it's going to bolster new course opportunity to be a preferred supplier to many of the nation's hyperscalers, the key co locators who are front and center on the data center build out. Kind of as a note, SWDP also installs their products, which we're really excited to be a part of that and bring those assets into Nucor and possibly even install other products that we make, sprinkler piping and other things that we produce. So we're excited about the space. We're excited about the products we have. We're excited about the relationships we have with the key players. We already have those relationships, but the phones are already ringing. And we're looking at really growing, significantly in this space.
Tristan Gresser:
And maybe a final question on Econiq. Do you have any volume target? Or can you disclose a little bit on the volume, how much you're selling or you target to sell in coming years? And if I look at the carbon intensity at which you're selling, if you were to sell that product in Europe, you probably get a premium, a selling premium of EUR150, EUR200 per ton. So it can be pretty significant. The U.S. market is much different. But I was wondering if you could share as some other peers have done, the type of premiums you're looking at for this tonnage.
Leon Topalian:
Again, Nucor is excited about our work that we've done regarding the entire sustainability front. Again, while other nations are looking to revamp their entire portfolio and spend tens of billions of dollars to try and someday 20, 30, 40 years down the road look like Nucor. We're not standing still. We're able to take the billions and billions that we're making today and continue to grow in places like data centers and racking and the investments in towers and structures and automotive and construction and providing solutions and capability for our customers for decades to come. When it comes to sustainability, it really becomes a very nuanced answer to your question. For example, the Mercedes Benz relationship we just announced was very important to them that we worked hard at our scope to emissions, right, that the renewable energy incoming into Nucor is how we produce these deals was critically important. But make no mistake, Nucor was the first out of the gate at scale to provide a 100% net zero carbon free steel, and we can do that at scale. A year ago, I think I used to figure that Nucor's capability in that realm was somewhere around the ability to ship at least a million tons. We can do more than that, but really what we're trying to do is identify the solutions for our customers that need different things. So there are some customers, for example, that don't want us to use regs or offsets to be able to get to that net zero target. Well, our starting point already at 0.4 is hundreds of percentage points below the traditional or extractive, steelmaking process in our integrated competitors. So our starting point becomes incredibly low. And then when you look to regional differences, there are different regions across the U.S. and Newport operating in that are able to lower that even further than certain steel mills like Sedalia that are operating at 0.09 or in that range. And so you have a unique opportunity again with the breadth of Nucor across the geographic footprint to really meet the needs today and long-term. Lastly, I'd just make the final comment and Dan anything you want to add or Greg is, it took Nucor, we were very deliberate before we came out with our net zero target. We didn't just jump out there in 2021 and there was a lot of pressure to do so. We did it when we believed there was a pathway in our control. We're not looking for government subsidies or handouts or technologies that would make the OpEx of steelmaking, quite frankly, unsellable. We're looking for the things that we can directly control and produce a true net zero product. And again, we're excited about that. We're well on the way to that. You'll see continued improvement in our overall performance. But again, leaders lead and we're going to be upfront, we're going to stay there, we're going to continue to make the investments for the long-term to position ourselves well for those customers that need and require Econiq steel.
Dan Needham :
And Tristan, this is Dan. What I would add to that is, if you think about Econiq, we rolled that out a couple of years ago, it's about a net zero product for Scopes 1 and 2. The markets evolved quite a bit since then. And what I would tell you is that sustainability is absolutely a personal journey for a lot of these companies. And so we've evolved as the market has and we're offering what the customers need. So we're very flexible as we just announced the Mercedes that was an Econiq-RE product around Scope 2, because that's what the customer has desired. So we're very flexible as we approach that. Your last question was around premiums. I'm not going to get into specifics around what that is, but there absolutely are premiums that we're achieving and realizing here in U.S. And if you look at how that's shaping out in Europe, I'd say it's similar to what's happening in the United States.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research.
Timna Tanners:
I was hoping for a little more color on the outlook because we're struggling a bit to get to the decline quarter-over-quarter. I think it has a bit to do with the fact that you pointed out, which is seasonally demand does improve usually in the second quarter for your key end markets. And so in light of that, maybe it would be helpful to discuss the corporate eliminations impact, if that's sticky into the second quarter, if some of those in process inventories to some of your projects are going to remain elevated or how we can think about that, if you can help us a bit with that guidance?
Leon Topalian:
So now I'll kick us off and maybe ask Steve to jump in, if I go too far into the accounting whole of corporate elims. But look, it is a good point, because one of the incredible strengths of Nucor is our diversity. Our ability to provide a wide variety and a capability set for our customers is unmatched in North America. Well, when you, for the quarter had $8 billion in revenue for the quarter. About $1.5 billion of that is internal. So it's shipping to hundreds of locations across Nucor. So the magnitude of our strength of having about 20% of our overall shipments go internal means that, man, you tracking down the ebbs and flows of every potential property limb across hundreds of locations in 40 states, and it's an inexact science. And again, our team works really hard to try to do that. But to your point, it's not a miss in terms of why you just missed it and it doesn't come back. It will flow back through into new core in the week’s months and maybe the next couple of quarters. So did you see that boost as they start out their products to their final end customers? So look, I get your point in sort of I think the way you're asking it is, would that not balance out what we're seeing in getting a little more stable in our Q-over-Q performance. And again, against that backdrop, I would tell you, we still see the market softening a little bit into Q2. But again, you're optimistic back half of the year sort of stabilizes. And again, I think Steve answered it well. I don't want to call Q2 the trough and the low point at this point. However, we do see strengthening and we do think the back half of the year and really the overall year for Nucor is going to be pretty strong. Steve, anything you'd add?
Steve Laxton:
The only thing I would add to what Leon said is, and you're very knowledgeable of our business and know how that how our products flow through the different businesses we have. And we do see volume pickups in both steel and in products. And so you should reasonably expect that the quarterly limbs might look different for the second quarter than they did the first quarter. Having said that, the pricing pressure on both mills and products are expected to give us a little bit lower results in the second quarter. So I think your question was a correct characterization of some of those pluses and minuses as we look at Q2.
Timna Tanners:
I just said and if there's any way to break out any more corporate eliminations guidance or color going forward, it's just bit tricky as you mentioned? I know it's tricky for you, it's tricky for us. So my second question is on the buyback cadence because obviously first quarter was a pretty big amount. And as you pointed out, you have a huge amount on your balance sheet with which you could dig into. But how do we think about that cadence going forward? How do you make those decisions? Or what could that look like given that you have the spare capacity, but you hadn't chosen to deploy it as aggressively until this quarter?
Steve Laxton:
I think what you, the first quarter is really an excellent piece of evidence of how Nucor thinks about managing its balance sheet. And that's over number one, it's very long-term perspective that we take. And number two, it's a rigor and a discipline around we put our capital to use or if we can't find the right uses for it to create value, we give it back to shareholders. And that's something we've done for years, years, and that was on the same store in the first quarter. One of the reasons we had a fair amount of liquidity at the end of the year last year was because of potential M&A pipeline activity. And we felt comfortable releasing that capital, if you want to call it that in the first quarter, at a higher rate than we normally do. We're still set with an excellent balance sheet, great leverage position, good liquidity, an active M&A pipeline, a smooth commitment to growth. And so we're striking that balance. It looks maybe a little bit choppy because of the amount of dollars quarter-over-quarter from the fourth quarter, but we were blacked out parts of the fourth quarter from some of the share buybacks. So that's part of why you're seeing the change if you're thinking about quarter-over-quarter numbers.
Timna Tanners:
[Indiscernible] M&A?
Leon Topalian:
I was just going to say, look, to get a little more qualitative, if you asked in sort of roundabout way, Nucor is probably not going to sit on $5.5 billion $6 billion of cash on a normal basis. We're thinking hard about that. There are some other activities in the M&A pipeline we're looking at that can't get any further than that to tell you. But again, you've watched our company long enough to know our return metrics, how we think about rewarding our shareholders and share repurchases, and you can expect that mindset and focus will continue well into the future.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan.
Bill Peterson:
I wanted to kind of come back to the plate market. What are your views on the market given elevated inventories, apparent consumption turning down for the last 12 months? And then I guess as we, I guess how do you think what are the key drivers that will unlock this market? And then especially, taking into account you are ramping Brandenburg, it sounds like you're planning to double over the next few quarters. Just want to get your thoughts on the market as we look ahead over the next several quarters.
Al Behr:
As we look at the plate market, the consumptive part of the market remains pretty steady. When you look at power transmission as an area of strength, bridge work is an area of strength. That's bridge work that's not necessarily related to the infrastructure build yet. I think that's coming, that will be coming, and John shared some comments around rebar to that effect. Military work remains strong and will probably tick up some. That's low volume work, but it's very high margin work. It's highly specialized plate, a lot of its hard work plate. But there's still some weaker segments. Vertical construction or high rise construction remains very, very weak. Large is kind of an opportunistic market segment and there's just not a lot of activity there right now. You look at heat, and Leon had some comments around heat, that's starting to soften. It's coming down from highs, but it's really softened in the last 12 months. So, I mean, when we boil that down to the year, it looks probably similar to last year. It's just fairly steady on the consumptive side, and then what comes in and out is the service centers that they buy according to what they feel is best for their business. And we didn't see a lot of restocking in Q1 this year. That's probably the biggest driver of our volumes being down. We saw a lot of that last year and that drove volumes higher. But we look through the rest of the year and we think it remains fairly steady, but maybe some sliding continuing to the second half just because election cycles on the non res construction side tend to create some stall and you just don't get as many decisions until the election happens and then regardless of the results, now what was not known is known and people move forward. It's probably a bigger story on the margin side for plate anyway that we continue to see squeeze on the margin side as we fight imports, imports are a problem. They're higher. They're trending higher, and we continue to have some so called trading partners that continue to abuse countries. I'm talking about our agreements and our trade laws, and, we'll continue to fight that commercially, and part of that is just having a competing marketplace and creates margins, please. But we'll also compete with that in any other way we go, which is regulatory and making our trade officials and elected officials aware of it. And, we've got to hold those countries to account to abide by the agreements that we make. So hopefully that provides some color for you on the on the play side. That's all along the backdrop of Brandenburg ramping and we went through that. But that's the way we look at the play market and what our outlook is.
Bill Peterson:
And then coming to the customer spot index that you employed. I guess, what were you looking to achieve and how do you address concerns if this could potentially compete with indices? You commented that you're doing it for customers, but is this is this something customers have been asking for? Can you share any sort of feedback you've received thus far from customers? And I mean, I guess, if we were to take it one step further, are there any expectations to expand this type of thing to other steel formats, our customers asking for other products?
Leon Topalian:
I'll kick it off and Rex Query heads up our sheet group. If there's additional comments, you'd like to make, please jump in. But we're excited and you asked one great question, but within that an important question and that was, were our customers asking for this? I would tell you unequivocally, yes, they have been asking for this. And so I'm not going to name other indices, we're obviously aware of them all. Our goal is simply to provide a more consistent, reliable, predictable, and relevant price on our top band spots, tons, period. Provide a consistent and shorter lead-time window for them and provide real time pricing on a weekly basis that was relevant. And so our commitment to them is to maintain a relevant price page each and every week. And so again, the part of that and the driver for that, yes, our customers were asking and also the whipsaw that we see in ups and down markets to try and shrink that volatility to create more stabilization in the marketplace, again, giving them better information to make better value decisions for their business and get out of the price speculation that we see all too often in the hot band market. So those really were the drivers. As we look at, again, it's only been a few weeks, how this evolves and moves forward, we'll wait and see. We'll allow our customers to see opportunity to decide that rather than us to starting that. They'll either once that provides to see back to us, that yes, we love it, we like it, we want to use this, we think it's the right industry. And, again, our job and our goal is to make that incredibly easy and transparent. Rex, anything you can add to that?
Rex Query:
Bill, I'll only add a couple of comments. I mean, Leon covered it well. Really, as we develop the CSP, we looked at the cycles over the last several years, and it was very predictable. As pricing started to firm, we would see customers enter into speculative buying. They would pull ahead demand. Lead times would then extend. Pricing would generally go up beyond, really supply demand balances, inviting imports in, inventories would balloon, and then we had to work that off, and you could see orders stop and pricing fall dramatically. So as we looked at that, we said, how can we create stability, potentially avoid speculative buying and it's through, us offering a current look at what we see spot pricing to our customers in the marketplace and maintaining our lead times, so they can count on what's happening. And that's really what we looked at, and we've got positive feedback at this point from our customers as Leon stated.
Operator:
And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand over the call to Leon Topalian for closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
In closing, I just want to thank our Nucor teammates for a great start to 2024. Let's continue to stay focused on our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of each and every one of our 32,000 team members that make up the Nucor family. And thank you to our customers and shareholders for the trust that you've placed in us both in the order books, in the orders that you give us, as well as the valuable shareholder capital that you trust us with. We will work hard each and every day to earn your trust in your continued business. Thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and welcome to the Nucor 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, General Manager and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor’s fourth quarter and year end 2023 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor’s executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Brad Ford over Fabricated Construction Products; Noah Hanners, Raw Materials; John Hollatz, Bar and Rebar Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial; Rex Query, Sheet and Talent Resources; and Chad Utermark, New Markets and Innovation. We have posted our fourth quarter earnings release and presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today’s discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results maybe different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor’s SEC filings. The appendix of today’s presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let’s turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack and welcome everyone. I’d like to begin by congratulating our 32,000 Nucor teammates for delivering another strong year of financial results. We closed out 2023 with solid performance earning $3.16 per share in the fourth quarter on our way to $18 per share for the full year. This represents the third most profitable year in Nucor’s history behind 2022 and 2021. In fact, Nucor’s combined net earnings over the past 3 years, exceeds the combined net earnings of the last 20 years. This is a testament to the focus and dedication of our team as we execute our strategy to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. In keeping with our commitment to shareholders and our balanced approach toward capital allocation, Nucor invested $2.2 billion in CapEx and returned $2.1 billion to shareholders in 2023, representing 46% of our net earnings. We are coming off the 3 best years in Nucor’s history, but in spite of that, we are even more excited about what lies ahead. The U.S. economy continues to be resilient and steel-intensive megatrends are starting to drive increased demand for the products we make and our focus on expand beyond businesses downstream are generating excellent returns. Turning to our safety performance, 2023 statistically was the safest year in Nucor’s history making 5 straight years of improvement. We also had 29 divisions going the entire year without a recordable injury. We finished the year with a company-wide injury and illness rate of 0.79, which is 17% lower than 2022 and well below the steel industry average. However, with that said, Nucor will not internally acknowledge 2023 as a record year in safety, will not celebrate 2023 as a record year, because on November 3, we lost a Nucor team member to a workplace accident. Subsequently, on November 9, we had a company-wide safety stand down. It was a chance to honor our fallen team member and his family, reflect on our most important value, safety and reinforce that the health, safety and well-being of every Nucor team member is what matters most. Our team members come to work each and everyday to support themselves, their loved ones and they must go home each and everyday. That is our greatest responsibility to all 32,000 team members who make up our Nucor family. Every leader inside of Nucor is committed to delivering our mission to become the world’s safest steel company and there is no doubt in my mind, we will achieve our goals together. Nucor is the largest and most diversified steel producer in North America. We pioneered the commercial application of EAF steelmaking over 50 years ago, and today, we own and operate 30 electric arc furnaces with 4 more under construction. EAF steelmaking and our unique entrepreneurial culture have made us the industry leader and our current strategy, we will keep Nucor out in front as we continue to deliver the financial results and capabilities our investors and customers have come to expect. Today, Nucor leads the North American steel industry across financial, operational and environmental criteria. Value creation for shareholders through prudent capital deployment is our primary financial objective. Since the beginning of 2020, we have invested over $12 billion in CapEx and strategic acquisitions to grow our core and expand beyond. During the same time, our average annual ROE has exceeded 30% and our annualized EPS growth rate has exceeded 40%. In terms of operation, Nucor makes approximately 1 out of every 4 tons of steel produced in the United States. We have a highly efficient business model and our unrivaled breadth of products and capabilities serve the widest range of end markets. Sustainability is a key differentiator for Nucor and a major part of our growth strategy. We are the largest recycler in the Western Hemisphere and among the lowest in greenhouse gas intensity across global steelmaking. And we are taking steps to position us even better for the future. Supplying customers with the sustainable solutions they have come to expect. That’s why we helped create the Global Steel Climate Council and announced a commitment towards net zero steelmaking by 2050 across Scopes 1, 2 and 3. Our business strategy and investments are driving growth for shareholders. In raw materials, we are leveraging our market intelligence and flexible supply chain to provide more sustainable inputs. We are investing in advanced scrap separation technologies and near zero emission iron-making and we have partnered with ExxonMobil to capture and store up to 800,000 tons of CO2 per year at our Louisiana DRI facility beginning in 2026. In our Steel Mills segment, we are shifting the mix toward higher margin value-added products. We continue to ramp up Brandenburg, the most capable EAF plate mill in the world. We are constructing a state-of-the-art sheet mill in West Virginia. And we are expanding our rebar micro mill footprint, targeting some of the highest growth regions in the U.S. Turning to Steel Products, we have a strategic advantage on the supply side, given the integration between our mills and steel product teams. We’ll continue to leverage this advantage while pursuing more cross-selling and companion tons through our solutions teams and we are investing in automation and technology to improve efficiency and reduce the risk of injuries. And finally, our Expand Beyond strategy into its steel adjacent platforms is paying off. We are leveraging our core competencies to grow into higher margin businesses aligned with steel-intensive megatrends. We are executing this strategy through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth, including the construction of 2 new utility structure production facilities. For 2023, our Expand Beyond platforms contributed roughly $415 million in EBITDA, led by overhead doors and insulated metal panels. We remain confident in hitting our $700 million EBITDA run-rate goal for Expand Beyond divisions in the coming years. We believe the American steel industry is still on the front end of megatrends working their way into steel markets. We are starting to see some increased activity in certain markets like bridge and highway, semiconductor chip plants, EV factories and renewable energy. And as we have shared before, Nucor expects the federal programs that support these megatrends to add somewhere between 5 million to 8 million tons of incremental annual demand for steel over the next several years. While the long-term trends look favorable, we have seen some pockets of slower-than-expected activity. For instance, adoption rates for electric vehicles are tracking lower than some have predicted and several offshore wind projects have been canceled or delayed due to supply chain challenges as well as higher costs. Warehouse starts are expected to decline again in 2024, but we still expect them to stay above pre-pandemic levels. And despite some of these near-term headwinds, Nucor remains optimistic about the longer term prospects for these end markets. Non-res construction is our largest end market and it has proven to be incredibly resilient. Some of the strongest growth is coming from the sharp rise in advanced manufacturing and infrastructure investment, both expected to rise double-digits over the next 2 years according to Dodge construction forecast. This is helping to offset some of the softness we are seeing for more rate sensitive sectors, which should begin to pick up later in the year if interest rate cuts occur as many expect. Before turning it over to Steve, I’d like to share a few thoughts on how Nucor’s business model continues to deliver attractive returns for our shareholders. From 2020 to 2023, we have generated a combined EBITDA over $30 billion, net earnings of nearly $20 billion, and returned nearly $10 billion to our shareholders. Throughout it all, we have maintained the strongest balance sheet of any North American steel producer, allowing us to grow the company by investing in higher margin, less volatile businesses. As our results demonstrate, Nucor is a growth company. And given our investment plans and the long-term outlook for steel in the U.S., we see more opportunities for growth in the years ahead. With that, I will turn it over to Steve who will share additional details on our financial results and near-term outlook. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon and thanks to our shareholders for joining us this morning. Nucor ended 2023 on a strong note with fourth quarter consolidated net earnings of $785 million, including $127 million of pre-operating startup cost. We exceeded the midpoint of our guidance due primarily to better-than-expected performance from our Steel Mills segment in the month of December. In addition to solid earnings for the quarter, the power of Nucor’s business model allowed us to generate more than $1.5 billion of operating cash flow during the quarter, with working capital contributing about $250 million of that total. Turning to our operating segment results, our Steel Mills Group generated $588 million of pre-tax earnings in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 33% from the third quarter. Total steel mill shipments declined 4% from the prior quarter and realized pricing for the segment was lower across all major products. Our mill utilization rate was 74%, down from 77% in the prior quarter, but higher than the 70% in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the back half of the fourth quarter, we saw an uptick in customer confidence as the UAW strikes were resolved and the Federal Reserve signaled the end to interest rate hikes. Shipment volumes increased as the quarter progressed and we began to realize higher pricing for sheet steel consistent with pricing trends in the published indices. We are expecting further improvements in both shipments and realized pricing to favorably impact results in the first quarter of 2024. Our Steel Products segment delivered another strong quarter with pre-tax earnings of $656 million. This represented just over half the total segment earnings for the fourth quarter and is the sixth consecutive quarter with Steel Products contributed at least 40% of our total segment earnings. For the year, Steel Products generated segment earnings of $3.4 billion, its second best year behind 2022. Realized pricing and margins continued to moderate in the fourth quarter, but on an earnings per ton basis for the full year of 2023, only gave up about 6 percentage points. Our Raw Materials segment posted a pre-tax loss of about $14 million for the quarter. Compared to the prior quarter, pricing was relatively stable, but output was lower and per ton cost rose due to planned outages at our DRI facilities. Now turning to capital allocation, with $2.2 billion in capital spending and $2.1 billion in shareholder returns in 2023, Nucor once again demonstrated a measured and balanced approach to its capital deployment. With respect to our shareholder returns, it’s worth noting that next week we will pay our 203rd consecutive quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.54 per share. This represents a 6% increase over the prior dividend. As Leon highlighted, Nucor is taking meaningful steps to grow its earnings power and cash flow potential. Since 2018, we have been able to increase our dividend by 42% and reduced our shares outstanding by 23%. For the foreseeable future, we remain confident we will continue to be able to return at least 40% of our net earnings to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases. A cornerstone of our capital allocation framework is a commitment to a strong investment grade credit rating and liquidity that enables our strategy. Nucor’s balance sheet remains well positioned to enable continued execution of our balanced capital allocation philosophy, with a debt-to-capital ratio of 25% and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 1%. We have a long history of putting capital to use and returning capital to shareholders. Given that principle and our ambitious growth plans, we do expect to end 2024 with a lower cash balance than when we started the year. We finished 2023 with a strong cash position for several reasons. First, with more than $7 billion of cash from operations, we generated robust cash flows throughout the year. Second, we experienced some timing delays in our planned capital spending. And finally, we were preserving liquidity for possible acquisition opportunities, which ultimately did not materialize. Now that we have broken ground in West Virginia, the pace of our capital spending should accelerate. For 2024, we expect total capital expenditures of approximately $3.5 billion, with our 7 largest growth projects represented approximately two-thirds of this total. In addition, we are firmly committed to growing our portfolio of solutions and expand beyond footprint through value-creating acquisitions. To that end, we are actively fostering a pipeline of acquisition candidates. As always, we will be selective, opportunistic and disciplined in our approach. But unlike our organic growth strategy, the timing and size of potential acquisitions is far less predictable. Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, we expect consolidated earnings to be higher than the prior quarter, with improved performance from the steel mills and raw materials segments, partially offset by weaker earnings from the Steel Products segment. For the Steel Mills segment, we expect quarterly earnings to increase due to higher realized pricing and higher volumes, in particular, from our sheet mills. In the Steel Products segment, we expect lower realized pricing compared with the prior quarter. Across most of our steel products groups, current backlogs are consistent with historic norms, while margins have remained higher than historic averages. For the Raw Materials segment, we expect modest profitability on higher shipments and relatively stable pricing. Looking ahead, 2024 appears to have a more stable outlook than may have been expected just a few months ago, with a reasonable probability of seeing the much discussed soft landing. As Leon mentioned in his opening remarks, the U.S. economy appears relatively healthy with inflation and unemployment metrics continuing to trend favorably. Market expectations for gradual declines in interest rates could result in more demand for consumer durables, light vehicles and increased activity across a broad construction sector. As the most diversified producer of steel and steel products with the widest array of market solutions, these potential expectations bode well for Nucor. Looking beyond 2024, several steel-intensive megatrends are only in the early stages. While economic cycles will continue to impact the markets, we broadly see positive demand drivers that provide a constructive backdrop to Nucor’s midterm growth potential. With that, we’d be happy to take your questions. Operator, if you would, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning, Leon and team. And I am sorry to hear that you guys lost a team member in November, but overall congratulations on what’s been a pretty strong safety performance the past several years. My first question is more end market related though in your slide deck, you did have a generally constructive outlook to use your words with regards to commercial construction as well as infrastructure. But when we look at the volume performance of the Bar and Beam mills and even plates to some degree, it’s been pretty choppy to down for almost 2 years now. So I guess what gives you confidence that, that market can inflect? What signs are you seeing in terms of either increased bidding activity on the Highway Bridge side? Or how your order book is shaping up?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Curt, I’ll kick it off, and if there is any other comments for our team. I’ll certainly let them jump in and thank you for the condolences regarding our team number. As we’ve mentioned for decades now, the health, safety and well-being of our 32,000 Nucor team member family is the greatest responsibility we all bear each and every day. They are the ones that are delivering every result we’re about to talk about. So again, thank you for acknowledging that. It’s interesting. There is a lot of talk about new capacity, particularly in the sheet. And we get a lot of questions, Curt, as you know, around well, as we think about new market entrants or increased demand won’t that flattening of the cost curve change the profile and earnings. And what I would point to is what you really asked about is the longs as we look at structural and while we don’t break out the individual structural mill Nucor-Yamato were Berkley being on the financial performance or the individual rebar mills. I would tell you the performance of our long products divisions has been incredible from a financial result. They are generating incredible returns for our company. Nucor-Yamato is operating at a much higher utilization rate. And so over the last 2 or 3 years and they have been 10 prior, I think prior to the pandemic our average utilization rate at NYS, for example, is in the upper 60s to low 70s that shifted much higher to the mid to upper 70s, low 80s. So that flow through and that run rate is generating great returns. So I would tell you, the outlook and continued demand for our structural products and loan products remains pretty optimistic. Again, we’ve seen incredibly consistent returns in our longest products divisions and groups that we think will continue into 2024.
Dan Needham:
Curt, this is Dan. I’ll give a little perspective on what we see in the market, in particular, with funding programs as well. But if you think of the trends, right now, we are seeing activity in some of the reshoring in the advanced manufacturing, so you are seeing in the EV battery plants those types of things. From a standpoint of IRA, CHIPS and the Infrastructure Act, there is more activity going on on the energy side with the IRA and also with the CHIPS. We are active in shipping to multiple CHIPS plants that are under construction today. From an IRA standpoint, we have seen a lot of activity in solar, particularly 2023 was a record shipment year for us on Torque 2 to go into these solar projects. And we see in that growing into 2024. It is about 22 gigawatts built in ‘23. We say go in to 22 – about 36 gigawatts in ‘24. What I would say is some of the headwinds, we see the peak of those activities in the volume and demand coming in the next few years. And the reason for that, there is a couple of things that are headwinds now. One is we have talked about on past calls is the labor constraints. That’s real out there. A lot of these projects are competing for the same labor pool. So we do see that having an impact. And then the other thing that’s also impacting the pace of these projects is really around regulations. And what I mean by that is getting access to energy for some of these plants is important. That’s a slow process. The other thing is environmental permitting. So we’re seeing some headwinds with those, but not just delaying the projects. And lastly, around the infrastructure it can take upwards of 18 months to go from when these projects are announced is actually when they start getting shipped. So that’s why we still see some optimism and are very positive in the outlook and we’re well positioned to take advantage of all of these trends going forward.
Curt Woodworth:
Great. And then just as a follow-up for Steel Products. You noted incremental pricing weakness in the quarter. Can you just comment – can you give any more specificity around how you see margins trending in this quarter or the margin profile of the backlog? I mean obviously, there is a lot of moving pieces within the Steel Products segment. But do you have a view on where margins should normalize? And then with respect to getting up to that $700 million EBITDA number, can you do that organically or would you need to acquire as well to reach that? Thank you and best of luck.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Curt, that’s a lot to unpack in there. What I would tell you on the macro, and I’ll let Brad Ford share a little bit more of the details, could be more proud of how our products groups and teams and divisions have performed over the last several years. The non-res sector of our economy has remained incredibly resilient. We had 10 straight quarters over $1 billion earned in that business on the downstream side of our portfolio. And while it was a little bit under that for Q4 of ‘23, its continuing performance is strong. We’re seeing order entry rates that are strong. As we move into Q1, we see that moving upwards. I’m not going to get detailed on the margins, but we see that improving. And so Brad, maybe provide a little bit more context to what we’re seeing as we enter 2024.
Brad Ford:
Yes. Thanks, Leon, and thanks for the question. Like Leon, I couldn’t be more pleased with the performance of our downstream product teams. Performance of safety, the clear step change in earnings and the solutions and value we’re providing to our customers and our team is executing extremely well. Joist and Deck tends to get a lot of headlines. And while Joist and Deck is coming off its second best year ever, Nucor Downstream Products is far more than just Joist and Deck. For example, our insulated metal panel group is coming off a record year; rebar fabrication, a record year, pre-engineered metal building, second best year ever; our tubular products group, second best year ever; garage door, fasters, towers, structures, warehouse, systems, skyline on down the list. This amazing product diversity positions Nucor uniquely to take advantage of strength in a variety of the market segments. As Dan mentioned, we see strength in advanced manufacturing and data centers supported by IRA and CHIPS infrastructure supported by the IIJA. We also see strength in healthcare, education and warehousing while down is still forecasted significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Our ability to offer this breadth of downstream products is unparalleled in the industry. These are secure, sustainable solutions for our customers and partners that continue to differentiate Nucor as the supplier of choice. We’re coming off a period of in ‘21 and ‘22 of extremely high demand. And while we see demand moderating back towards historical levels, it’s still quite strong. And while volumes have moderated, our backlog remains very healthy, and pricing has stabilized at levels far higher than historical averages. In fact, Q4, industry-wide bookings in Joist and Deck were the highest in six quarters and 40% higher than Q4 of last year. So we’re optimistic, and we’re entering 24 with more market activity and momentum than we entered in 2023.
Curt Woodworth:
Great. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Curt.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Katja Jancic:
Hi, thank you for taking my question. At your Investor Day in 2022, you provided an EBITDA bridge that would get you to normalized EBITDA of about $6.7 billion. Can you provide an update on how you’re progressing on reaching that goal?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I’d actually been pleased to. So in November of 2022, we stood in New York and rolled out the most comprehensive detailed analysis that we’ve ever published before to show you as the analysts what we were going to do and the accountability by which we’re going to hold ourselves to that through-cycle EBITDA with the completion of our CapEx investments would yield about a $6.7 billion through-cycle EBITDA performance. I’d tell you at $7.4 million for the third best year in Nucor, we’re doing really well and that’s going to continue to improve because not all those projects have come to fruition yet. We’ve got galv lines being built, we’ve got our new micro mill being built in Lexington, North Carolina, we’ve got the investments in Kingman, Arizona that we’re making, where we’re expanding our resource pool and how we bring these products to market. So I would tell you we’re doing incredibly well. And again, we will look back at times and look – coming out of the cycle, did we hit the trough? And what I would tell you is I’m really proud of our earnings. I’m proud of the way the team has been able to accomplish those. And then again, the results that we’ve been able to see, as we shared with you on the opening remarks, to generate $30 billion over the last 4 years, $20 billion in net earnings and 10% or $10 billion given back to our shareholders has been an incredible well disciplined growth strategy and that’s going to continue. We’re going to be very disciplined in how we think about capital allocation moving forward. Steve, anything you’d like to add on as we continue to grow and looking at that run rate of 6.7%?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Katja, just to add on to what Leon said, a lot of those projects are still ahead of us. If you look at some of the biggest ones in our company’s history like West Virginia, those are only in the early stages of their product life. So they haven’t even started to contribute. And in terms of our Expand Beyond investments, we told you that we felt confident those investments would hit $700 million in EBITDA. And we still – we would reaffirm that today and tell you we feel very confident we will hit 700 of their run rates at the end there. So there is still more to come on that. And likely unsaid, cycles go where they go, but we’re continuing to execute on our business on all fronts.
Katja Jancic:
And maybe just quickly on the Brandenburg plate mill. How much do you expect the mill will produce in ‘24? I think previously you were expecting about 500,000 tons?
Al Behr:
Yes, Katja, this is Al Behr. That’s still our number for 2024. I would expect to be there or north of it. I’m just super proud of that team on how they have worked through the ramp-up there. We continue to be focused on the new part of the market that we can’t service out of our existing portfolio, and we remain mindful of the returns we generate through there at Herbert and Tuscaloosa that contributed to the strong results you see in front of you, and we want to add to that out of Brandenburg. So we’re going to continue that thoughtful process, but Q4 was a meaningful productive quarter for that team. We continue to set new standards. We shipped another Nucor first of 120-foot long plates to a bridge fabricator, 30 tons a piece. We ship them by truck and by rail. So these are the kinds of things that we will be able to do on a Brandenburg that’s never been done before by Nucor or perhaps the rest of the industry, and we’re just excited as we roll into this year. But that remains our number, and we’re confident in that.
Katja Jancic:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. Hey, good morning, team. I wanted to ask a little bit more about capital allocation. I guess first off, the comment on lower cash balance. What do you think is the right level, because clearly, it’s been running kind of high recently? So just to get a little more color there? And secondly, you made mention of preserving liquidity for potential M&A and acquisition that you thought could and it didn’t. And here at an industry conference, there is a lot of chatter about Nucor’s supposed involvement in the acquisition process for U.S. Steel. Just wondering if you can comment on that or give us some more color perhaps on your M&A pipeline, what that might look like, what types of companies, etcetera?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Timna, I’ll kick it off and then let Steve. So I’ll begin with the second part of your question, which, again, obviously, the proxies have Nucor took a hard look at some of the select assets within the U.S. Steel portfolio. But at the end of the day, we’re not going to overpay for any assets. We’re going to continue to be very discipline and how we thing about growth. Some of the cash generated was just stronger results and stronger shipments and some pricing and flow through that we didn’t fully anticipate. But I would tell you again from my perspective, we continue to remain an incredibly undervalued stock as we think about the growth metrics that have already shared won’t repeat again, but at 7.5x EBITDA, I think we are a great value in terms of the things that we’re doing in producing. In regards of who ends up owning U.S. fields assets, Nucor today’s market cap is larger than the next three largest combined steel companies in North America. We are the industry leader. And so again, as we look at our strategy and our growth we’re going to be incredibly disciplined in making sure that the investments we make in our core and expand beyond are delivering the results our shareholders expect. And then they expand beyond particularly that it’s providing some insulation to the traditional sickle county of steel that we’re looking for the steel adjacent downstream businesses that, again, operate a little countercyclical to what we’re seeing in steel and we’re seeing those, again, manifest themselves for CHI, the megatrends that we’re seeing in towers and structures and some of the other businesses that we’ve acquired over the last 3 or 4 years.
Steve Laxton:
Hey, Timna, this is Steve. I’ll just add to what Leon said that we don’t – we have such a good opportunity in front of us. And you highlight us the areas that we think about growth. So we’re always going to keep enough liquidity to move on the things we need to move on. And we also highlighted that we will spend around $3.5 billion in CapEx in this year. So that’s a higher rate than our historic averages. Despite that, we will and we will – Leon highlighted this one, too. We still feel like our stock is a good buy here. So you’ll see us at a higher pace for share buybacks in Q1 than we did last year.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, that’s super helpful. Thank you for the color. I guess one quick one, if I could add. I know there was a question already about Brandenburg run rate, but I was just wondering, is there still more room to see Gallatin on an annualized basis ramp up? Or is it already pretty fully running out those to the expansion? Thanks again.
Leon Topalian:
Sorry, was your question on Gallatin’s ramp-up?
Timna Tanners:
Yes, the status of that, if you could, please?
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Yes, I’ll provide some of – high level. What I would tell you in the last 3 or 4 months of 2023, the team has executed incredibly well. We have seen daily, weekly, monthly production records set at that facility. They are – have realized the full run rate potential of that mill and now are operating at an extremely high level. So, they have turned – more than turned in the quarter and again, are producing at or near run rate capabilities, and we will continue that as we move into 2024.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thanks again. Appreciate it.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Bill Peterson:
Yes. Hi. Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So, I guess first, in the plate market, I guess what are your views on the plate market given the step-up in service center inventories we saw in December and the year-on-year decline in shipments despite Brandenburg’s ramp? And I guess following up on that Brandenburg sort of ramp commentary, when can we expect to see Brandenburg turn profitable this year?
Al Behr:
Yes. Thanks Bill. This is Al Behr again, I will comment on the plates stuff. We did have an increase year-over-year in shipments by 11% and part of that is, of course, Brandenburg. But just speaking about the plate market overall, I would say we are reasonably optimistic. I mean there is areas of weakness that get some headlines and higher interest rates, are a compressive force when it comes to vertical construction where plate is used. But there is plenty of bright spots in other areas like power transmission and railcar manufacturing. Heavy equipment is still strong. It’s probably declining, but it’s still strong and a good pull-through for us. So – and then of course, you have got the bridge and highway tons that are mostly yet to come, and that will come for years in the future. So, our Skyline business that Brad mentioned pulls a lot of plate tons through almost all of their work is infrastructure related, not just bridge and highway, but many other types of projects. So, our view is not that the plate market is going to be wildly robust, but it’s going to remain pretty steady and has plenty of tailwinds to offset some of the other forces working against us.
Bill Peterson:
And on the Brandenburg profitability timeline.
Al Behr:
I would expect we hit a run rate of breakeven sometime in the middle of the year.
Bill Peterson:
Okay. Thanks for that. Second question is a little bit longer dated, longer focused. But in the last earnings presentation, there has been certainly less on the decarbonization efforts. But with the team having many multi-faceted approach across biocarbon and green pig iron, the CCS program you mentioned, power generation, zero emission iron and so forth. I guess are any of these showing up in 2024 within your investments in CapEx, for example, the CCS program that you have planned for ‘26? I guess how should we think about these programs in terms of what’s leading and how they flow through over the next several years?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I will begin and Greg Murphy, our EVP in Business Services and Sustainability can jump in as well. But from a high level, look, it’s a great question. One of the beautiful things about Nucor and our positioning is this, one of the top five recyclers in the world and certainly the largest in the Western Hemisphere. Our EAF steelmaking technology means that we don’t have to take the billions and billions and billions of dollars of profit we are making in pivot in transition from the old style integrated facilities. You are seeing headlines around the world companies in Europe that are – have made the pledge to 100% switch to EAF steelmaking technologies because they have no choice. The question in my mind isn’t about and if. This nation is going to move to a greener, more sustainable platform as we rebuild, restore and continue to grow the digital economy. The real question in my mind is the pace in which we changed, do we have the infrastructure, do we have the grid hardening, do we have the resources across the United States to be able to effectively help the EV users power their cars at homes and everything else. But it’s a long-winded way to get to the answer of your question is if you think about the PPAs that were part of, you think about some of these investment projects, the Louisiana partnership in Exxon, they didn’t cost us anything because of the strength of our balance sheet, the strength of Nucor’s leadership position, it wasn’t a huge outlay of cash, if you think about some of the other investments that are smaller in size. So, they are not – there are tens of millions rather than hundreds of billions. It’s positioning ourselves and finding partners out there that are doing different things with carbon and biochar. We are looking at technologies in Europe that are producing pig iron at or near net zero embodied carbon. So, there is a number of things that we are examining that are not at this point, large scale from a CapEx standpoint. Greg, anything you would add to that?
Greg Murphy:
Yes. I guess on the timing issue, we see the Louisiana project beginning to pay dividends probably in 2025. But as Leon said, that is not at all a capital-intensive investment for Nucor. We were able to structure that as an over defense solution, working with a partner who really understands the geology and the petrochemical attributes there in ExxonMobil. And with the 45Q tax credit, that has proven to be a financial winner for Nucor really from beginning to end. And a lot of the other strategies that we will deploy as an EAF producer go to things like our source and supply of raw materials and how we can get lower in body carbon raw materials, how we can use obsolete scrap and extract some of the tramp elements from that and use that to replace things like pig iron. So, from a capital intensity standpoint, Leon nailed it. We are in a well-positioned place. And really, what we are trying to do is to take a world-class level and make it even better. And we are very, very excited. The last thing I would mention is Scope 2 emissions, that’s a big opportunity for Nucor. You have seen us make investments in both nuclear division [ph] and nuclear fusion technology where we believe that’s going to be an essential element in delivering reliable, affordable base load power in the future that’s zero carbon. That’s still going to be a number of years out into the future. But we believe it’s going to be absolutely essential to supplement the solar, wind and other renewable clean sources in the future. But again, we don’t want to build nuclear power plants. We want to be the off-takers and use that power.
Bill Peterson:
Thanks for the conference and answers and good luck with the execution.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks Bill.
Operator:
The next question comes from Martin Englert with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Good morning everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good morning.
Martin Englert:
Question on conversion costs, they were pretty similar year-on-year around $465 per ton. Just wanted to see if what your thoughts were if this was a reasonable range to expect on a go-forward basis considering today’s operating structure, or is this something that has an opportunity to come down as start-up costs start to subside from some of the growth projects?
Dave Sumoski:
Yes. This is Dave Sumoski. Certainly, some of the growth projects, especially Gallatin has – that’s increased our cost based on some of the things that we have done up there and some of the – it was a little bit slower but starting than we had expected. So, we can expect the costs to come down a little bit, but not a lot. I think Gelatin is running at a really good rate now, where I will say we were probably here near full run rate, so we are going to be in a good spot this year.
Martin Englert:
Okay. And I just wanted to circle back on the discussion of plate and structural and this is from the mill perspective, looking at the plate volumes and the beam volumes. There was just year-on-year divergent trend when you look at the quarterly where you saw price come down in 4Q, but had been growing and then you have the opposite in structural products. Anything else to add there as far as color as to why those would have pivoted so differently through the course of the year?
Al Behr:
Sure, Martin. Hey. This is Al Behr again. I will start with plate, so year-over-year growth, but you see same quarter year-over-year, we took a step back. A lot of that is just we are not going to chase cheap tons. And in Q4, we had some of the imports come in, and those spreads just got to be where we are not going to load our books with tons that aren’t profitable and aren’t going to drive returns for us. So, I think that will change as we move forward, and I spoke to our outlook for 2024 in plate. In beams, you saw a really great quarter of beams. Part of that speaks to the resiliency of the market and Brad spoke to that, and we have spoke to that. It just remains a resilient market, and there is plenty of areas of strength where we can go and compete and win and you see that. But part of that is also the breadth of Nucor’s portfolio. And some of those tons, you see in the beam group are tons to our downstream customers, Skyline being one of them, that won some nice projects and you will see them ship those tons through the first half to say, convert and perform. So, there is just always – Nucor’s success is a multilayered story. There is always a cylinder firing. And the numbers that you see, I think just reflect that, especially on the beams side.
Martin Englert:
Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you and congratulations on the long-term return profile.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Martin.
Operator:
Next question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on capital allocation, and thank you for touching on the M&A situation. If I could just have a quick follow-up there, when you look at the pipeline of opportunities, is it fair to assume the most – well, all those opportunities are inside the U.S. and you are not looking at opportunities abroad. And in the past, when you look at the balance between organic and inorganic, I wonder if you could comment a little bit where in the priority list, greenfield projects, you par essentially. That’s my first question. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Tristan, I will kick it off and certainly let Steve Laxton and share any additional comments. But if you – as you look at our M&A pipeline, you think about our strategy. As we think about growing the core, expanding beyond, what we said is roughly we expect over the next 5 years, 6 years, that we would begin to generate about 20% to 25% of our overall revenues through expand beyond businesses. So, we are moving to that. So, it sort of gives you a rough breakdown to where you are going to see us continue to think about growth, where we are going to continue to channel our capital dollars. Regarding the geography, I would tell you, it’s probably a safe bet that Nucor is going to stay in North America though that’s the sector this economy that we know the best, where we have the most advantages to use the strength of Nucor from our culture, our team, our conversion model and understanding. As the market leader in 12 of the 14 major steel market and categories, we have been in business a long time. We understand the boundaries around this industry, and we also understand our customers and where they are wanting to go. We are making investments not for our benefits. We are making investments not to be the largest by volume. We are being disciplined in those investments to create capability sets that our customers continue to grow their businesses and continue to flourish.
Tristan Gresser:
Alright. That’s helpful. Moving on to maybe the rebar market, can you discuss a little bit the demand trends you have been seeing there over the past a couple of weeks? And we have seen the price hikes coming through, putting an end to some metal spread compression. Do you see any reason on the ground to expect further moderation, or you believe the market has now find kind of a new equilibrium there? Thank you.
John Hollatz:
Yes. Tristan, this is John Hollatz. We did see some improved margins in rebar in the fourth quarter. And over the course of the year, rebar remained pretty steady as we have talked about these infrastructure projects and other demand and construction continuing to grow. We are bullish on the rebar market for the future.
Tristan Gresser:
Okay. That’s clear. Maybe last question then on plate, I know it has been discussed a bit, but in your outlook, the weakness you are seeing in heavy equipment or earthmoving machinery, how new is that? How severe is it? And in terms of outlook, I think you mentioned something, you said it would be steady. Should I understand it as weakness – those incoming part of – portion of weakness being offset by more supported construction infrastructure that’s coming on?
Al Behr:
Yes. Tristan, Al again. Is your question primarily just around that heavy equipment piece? I want to make sure I get that right.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes, the kind of the red dot you put in the table and that includes heavy equipment, earth moving machinery. So, some weakness you are seeing there, just trying to figure out if that’s new and if it’s severe. And then when you look at the outlook for metal spreads for plate, they have been pretty steady in January. Is that something you expect to continue, or do you think that weakness you just flagged this could potentially imply some further moderation there?
Al Behr:
Okay. Let me address the heavy equipment piece. My comments about it declining, I wouldn’t say are new in terms of the decline in that sector. That’s been happening through the second half of the year. I wouldn’t say we see that as a really strong decline going into 2024 because there is obviously the infrastructure, there is going to be some spending in that end-use market that will keep that somewhat buoy, but we do see it continuing to decline a bit as one of several end markets where we serve with plates. So, all of that put together with non-res construction and some of the other highlights that we talked about in those markets, our outlook for plate is relatively optimistic just in terms of small, like low-single digit incremental growth year-over-year, that there is plenty of different parts where we can compete separate from the ramp-up that we will have in Brandenburg, where we will grab some incremental time just to apply that alone. Is that helpful?
Tristan Gresser:
Yes, that’s really helpful. Thank you for the color.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
The next question comes from Curt Woodworth with UBS. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Thank you. I just had a quick follow-up on capital spending outlook. So, of the growth capital you have outlined for this year, how much of that will carry over into next year? And can you just remind us on the timeline of when you think Steel West Virginia will start to ramp? And then you also noted a potential, I think new micro mill bar project in the Pacific Northwest, if you could just comment on that. Thank you.
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Curt, this is Steve. The $3.5 billion projection is our expectation for 2024. And I think if you are trying to extrapolate what future years are going to be, some of those projects like West Virginia are going to push our capital spending into ‘25 higher than historic averages. But likely, if you are potentially not something, it’s probably below that $3.5 billion, if you are trying to look for a direction, but north of $3 billion, if I would guess. And in terms of when West Virginia is completed, it will be in 2026. So, that’s a project that will keep going for some time for us.
Leon Topalian:
And then, Curt, your last question on the exploration in the Pacific Northwest. What I would tell you is, we are doing just that. Again, it’s a market we have been in for two decades. Our team in Seattle continues to do an incredible job. And again, we are going to continue to evaluate that market, recognizing the customers that we serve in that market. And where does that most make sense and stay tuned.
Curt Woodworth:
Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
In closing, I just want to say thank you to our Nucor team members for another great year in 2023 as we begin ‘24, let’s make sure we take care of our most important value the health, safety and well-being of our Nucor family. Thank you to our customers for the trust you place in us with each and every order and thank you to our shareholders for the valuable capital that you entrust us with each and every day. Have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Nucor's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, General Manager, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's third quarter 2023 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Brad Ford, Over Fabricated Constructions Products; Noah Hanners raw materials John Hollatz, Bar Products and Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial Strategy; Rex Query, Sheet and Tubular Products; and Chad Utermark, New Markets and Innovation. We posted our third quarter earnings release and investor presentation to Nucor's IR website. We encourage you to access these materials, as we'll cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I would like to begin today's call by highlighting the tremendous performance of our 32,000 Nucor team members through the first 9 months of the year. The investments we're making to grow our core and expand into new markets are generating strong returns for our shareholders, and our team continues to operate efficiently and safely. In fact, we're on pace to deliver our fifth consecutive year of record safety performance, further proof of the world class performance by our Nucor team members who live our culture each and every day. Looking at our financial performance in the second quarter, Nucor generated approximately $1.8 billion of EBITDA and $1.1 billion net earnings, or $4.57 per diluted share. This brings our year-to-date net earnings to $3.7 billion, or $14.83 per diluted share. Even though we still have one more quarter to go, our year-to-date earnings through September already represents our third best full year in Nucor's history. In keeping with our investor focused capital allocation strategy, we've returned $627 million to shareholders in Q3, representing 55% of our net earnings for the quarter. On the operation front, total shipments to outside customers was approximately 6.2 million down 5% compared to the prior quarter, and down 3% compared to Q3 of 2022. Total steel mill shipments for the quarter were nearly 5.8 million tons and downstream steel product shipments to outside customers was roughly 1.1 million tons. Earlier this month, we launched a National Sustainability Campaign branded Made for Good, which highlights our commitment to producing the world's most sustainable steel and our efforts to lead others in our industry to adopt practices that reduce emissions. Our circular recycling based process gives us a competitive advantage, as more customers look to reduce emissions in their supply chain. But we're taking steps to differentiate ourselves even further. We're not just talking about sustainability, we're making investments in forming partnerships to accelerate a cleaner future for Nucor, the broader steel industry in all industrial manufacturers. And in almost every month of the past year, we've done something to move the needle in that regard. We've entered into another renewable energy PPA invested in technologies to develop advanced forms of nuclear power generation and zero carbon iron making, formed a partnership to capture, transport and sequester CO2 emissions from our Louisiana DRI facility, introduced Elcyon, our new sustainable heavy gauge steel plate for the offshore wind energy industry, and help lead the Global Steel Climate Council, a coalition of global steel companies and industry partners to develop a clear and unbiased global standard to measure and report carbon emissions. Consistent reinvestment in our businesses has played a critical role in our company's growth. We make investments after we identify strategies that have compelling risk adjusted return opportunities for Nucor's shareholders. I'd like to highlight three important milestones we've hit recently across sheet, plate and bar with a reminder of the strategic rationale behind each investment. Starting with sheet, last week, we were joined by hundreds of leaders in West Virginia in Mason County for a groundbreaking event to celebrate the start of a construction of our newest sheet mill. This investment in West Virginia along with additional galvanizing paint in tube lines, we are adding at other sheet mills will enable Nucor to produce higher margin value added products for a broader set of customers, especially those who value high-quality steel with a lower carbon footprint. By 2026, we will have more than doubled our capacity to produce higher value sheet products compared to our capabilities in 2020. Turning to plate. Earlier this month, we celebrated the official grand opening of our state-of-the-art mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky. This investment positions Nucor as the most capable plate supplier in the largest plate consuming region of North America, able to produce specialty plate products that support our nation's economy and security in critical areas such as wind, long span bridges, military applications, power transmission, amongst many others. And in August we held a groundbreaking ceremony for our rebar micro mill in Lexington, North Carolina. This mill will help us to capitalize on growing demand for rebar in the growing Mid Atlantic in Southeast regions over the coming decades. The modernized equipment and processes at this new mill will enable us to achieve both improved margins and lower emissions intensity from our rebar operations. The team in Lexington is making great progress on the construction, and we look forward to starting the mill up in early 2025. As we have said many times, the goal of our growth strategy is to expand our capabilities to better serve our customers and grow our earnings for our shareholders. The new capabilities we're adding in our steel mill and steel product segments are diversifying our customer base and creating more opportunities to cross-sell various products. A lot has already been said about the magnitude of the three steel intensive megatrends, each fueled by supportive federal legislation. We like to think of these three as the rebuilding, repowering and reshoring of the U.S economy. And with Nucor's unrivalled scale and diversity, we are favorably positioned to capitalize on these growth drivers. Investors have been asking where we are in the cycle of these megatrends and what steel products Nucor is best positioned to supply. I'd like to share a few thoughts on that. And since it's baseball playoff season, I'll use a few baseball metaphors to help make my point. Based on current production in order books, it feels like we're still in the early innings across all three. To be clear, innings played is not intended to reflect unshipped and some innings may last longer than others. It's meant to indicate where we believe we are along the continuum from federal and state level appropriations, project engineering and development, the permitting and bidding process and ultimately taking orders in manufacturing steel products. Well, all three are still early in the process with still plenty of upside to come, we feel like the IIJA has progressed the least with respect to steel related orders. The CHIPS Act has probably had the biggest impact on our order book thus far and the IRA falls somewhere in between. As it relates to the rebuilding effort with funding through IIJA, we have shipped tons related to the first wave of bridge projects involving Nucor plate, beam and piling products. But we believe a lot more has yet to make it out of state level permitting and the bidding processes, especially with respect to highway construction, and power transmission, which will require a great deal of rebar, plate and heavy sheet. Back to my baseball analogy, the game has started and we've probably neared the bottom of the first, but some fans are still tailgating while others are just entering the stadium. On the repowering front, the financial stimulus under the IRA occurs through tax credits as opposed to the longer allocation process under the IIJA. This probably gives the IRA a slight edge on timing, but renewable and energy storage projects still take a while to secure financing and all the necessary permits. So while we are starting to see more orders relating to ground mounted solar and onshore wind, there's still a lot of upside remaining in the years yet to come. And finally, the reshoring efforts supported by the chips and Science Act has promulgated announcements for at least 37 projects worth an estimated $370 billion. Nucor is already delivering steel products to a few of these. But these projects can take several years to complete and will shift from one steel product to another as construction progresses. When it comes to an advanced manufacturing facility, including semiconductor, battery and EV plants, Nucor can produce an estimated 90% of the required steel. Some of the higher steel intensity products represent homeruns for Nucor, but there are plenty of companion tons representing base hits. And in many cases, the profit margins of base hits orders can be quite compelling. Needless to say, we're excited for what these megatrends can mean for the U.S economy and Nucor plans to be the leading supplier of the steel with which it's built. With that, I'd like to turn it over now to Steve Laxton, who will provide additional details about our Q3 performance and outlook for Q4. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining our call this morning. With third quarter consolidated net earnings of more than $1.1 billion, we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by about 10%. The main driver of this exceedance was better performance in September than we expected from many of our businesses, the most notably in our bar mills and several downstream steel products divisions. The strength of Nucor's business model and growing the earnings power were on display yet again. The third quarter was our 10th consecutive quarter were both net earnings exceeded $1 billion and return on equity exceeded 25% on a trailing 12-month basis. With respect to our operating segment results, our steel mills group generated $883 million of pre-tax earnings in the third quarter, a decrease of 37% from the second quarter. While volumes declined roughly 4% from the prior quarter, lower realized pricing accounted for most of the earnings decline. As an example, our realized sheet pricing for the third quarter fell by roughly $80 a ton compared to the prior quarter outpacing more modest declines in our cost of scrap and ore base metallics. Our utilization rate for the quarter was 77% down from 84% in the prior quarter. This lower utilization rate was a key factor affecting higher price per ton conversion cost at our steel mills. We continue to see excellent results from our steel product segment. Pre-tax earnings for steel products were approximately $807 million for the third quarter. As you know our steel products business produces the most diverse set of solutions in our industry and were benefiting from this broad range of capabilities. During the quarter, we saw stronger contributions from areas like rebar fabrication, pre-engineered metal buildings and insulated metal panels. These partially offset some declines in joist and deck and tubular products. While Joist and deck profitability continues to moderate from historically high levels, it remains well above pre-pandemic averages. Although there is a lingering lack of clarity with the overall economy, we're still seeing areas of growth within non-residential construction. Here again Nucor's diverse product range is allowing us to see gains with advanced manufacturing facilities and data centers on the buildings front and transportation and energy on the infrastructure front. Our raw material segment produced pre-tax earnings of $71 million for the quarter compared with the prior quarter we shipped lower volumes and saw lower realized pricing in both our DRI and recycling businesses. Nucor generated nearly $2.5 billion of cash from operations during third quarter, and $5.6 billion through the first 9 months of the year. This strong cash flow enabled our balanced approach to capital allocation. Our framework for capital remains the same. We expect to maintain a strong investment grade balance sheet, make meaningful direct returns to shareholders and create long-term value by redeploying capital and advancing our strategy. Nucor's balance sheet remains strong with a total debt to capital of just around 24% and more than $6.7 billion of cash on hand at the end of last quarter. This level of liquidity provides support as we move into a period of accelerated capital spending over the next year with large capital projects such as our West Virginia Sheet Mill, while also enabling potential M&A activity. Nucor has a long track record of returning capital to shareholders. Since 2020, Nucor's returned approximately $9.3 billion back to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Year-to-date, Nucor's returned nearly $1.8 billion or 47% of net earnings to shareholders. Turning to capital spending. As you may recall, initial progress on several of our growth projects was slower-than-anticipated. But in particular, our largest project in West Virginia was delayed. Because of the slower spending and timing delays, we're reducing our 2023 capital spending estimates from $3 billion to approximately $2.4 billion, with the difference between those figures being pushed into 2024. For our fourth quarter outlook, we expect consolidated earnings to be lower than the third quarter with declines across all three segments. At the steel mills, we expect earnings to decrease compared to the third quarter results on lower realized prices and slightly lower volumes. Given that most of our sheet business is sold on contracts, recent improvements in pricing are not expected to improve average realized selling price until later in the quarter. In our steel product segment, we expect slower volumes and lower realized pricing as well. For the raw material segment, we expect lower earnings in the fourth quarter due to margin compression and planned outages at our DRI operations. Looking ahead into 2024, we have attractively priced backlogs into the second quarter for some of our steel products, with continued strong order activity expected in manufacturing, data centers and energy. So while we remain constructive over the long-term due to expected secular demand drivers, near-term market conditions have softened. We attribute this to uncertainty arising from the United Auto Workers strike, higher interest rates, credit tightening, elevated geopolitical risk and concern about another potential U.S government shutdown. As of today, we expect the sequential declines in our fourth quarter earnings may exceed that of our third quarter decline. With that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the lines for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on capital allocation. Could you remind us what is the place of inorganic growth and the strategy? I think you touched on potential M&A. I think in the past you viewed M&A as more on the downstream side, but how do you view the upstream and how do you view the current federal market at the moment? That's my first question. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Tristan, I will kick it off and maybe ask Steve to comment on maybe the second half of your question. But if we think about our mission statement that we started when I took over CEO in 2020, it's to grow the core expand beyond and liberal culture. So as we think about growth, it's really against those two backdrops growing our core projects like our sheet mill in West Virginia, which again, we couldn't be more excited about at an incredible groundbreaking last week on Friday of last week with our team and senators and local politicians, and again, couldn't be more thrilled for the location of that, the proximity of that, generating the highest grades and cleanliness of steels in that facility, projects like Lexington, North Carolina are expansions and galvanizing and sheet and painted and galvanized. So that's the core. The other piece is the expanding beyond things like our investment in CHI in the overhead door business, so racking our warehouse systems, the towers and structures, pieces of Nucor that are going to continue to generate more consistent earnings profiles, a higher high and again a higher low. Because again, many of those businesses as we think about the adjacencies, Tristan, our -- that operate outside the traditional cyclicality of the normal steel curve that we've been a part for so long, so we are balancing that overall portfolio, again, balancing that return profile for our shareholders. And so those are our priorities. As we think about -- we've not broken out dollars to dollars on where we're going to spend x amount of percent in which bucket, what we're doing is looking through, where do we bring value? Where do we create economic value add and how do we maximize each capital dollar into those projects that are going to come closer near double our cost of capital. Ultimately, with the umbrella or the cultural fits renew core? Do they make sense because ultimately, what drives Nucor and every KPI that you see is the 32,000 men and women who make up this family, it is our culture that drives every result in our shareholders benefit from.
Steve Laxton:
And Tristan, the other thing I might add to what Leon said was, you started the question with capital allocation. And just as a reminder, Nucor has been and Leon used the word balance. Balance is really the key summary there. We have a disciplined and consistent approach with returning capital back to shareholders, which we enforced for a number of years, reinvesting in our business. And your question was about how do we look at organic versus inorganic, and as Leon walked through some examples, you can see that we take advantage of opportunity where we can create value. So we don't expressly have an inorganic more M&A strategy. We have a strategy and M&A is a tool by which we use to implement that strategy.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. That's clear and helpful. Maybe a quick follow-up on that. But when you look at M&A, are there particular red lines, I mean, [indiscernible] the upstream side, is there potentially interest to go on certain upstream asset to get certain types of grades and quality? I think one of you peer earlier mentioned that the flat rural market was pretty fragmented. Is that also something a view of share?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Tristan, the short answer is yes. If you think about all of that, and another 100 variables of upstream product differentiation other materials, Nucor is -- and our team and M&A team review that consistently. And we've looked and again, one of the great things about having a comprehensive strategy, it informs you as much about what you're not going to do is what you are. So the things that we've made and the investments that I've just highlighted are really reflective of the opportunities that we're going to continue to look for in the pipelines and those megatrends that are existing in archive. They're going to provide a differentiated value proposition for our customers. So the megatrends like towers and structures, the opportunities and sustainability and iconic steel that we're making with zero net carbon footprints, how are we thinking about the manufacturing build out of EVs, battery plants, data centers that, again Nucor is really well-positioned. And so, what I would tell you is, all the things you mentioned come into the filtering of how we're thinking about M&A. But ultimately, what Steve and I just mentioned, are the drivers of can we create EVA for every dollar invested that it's going to return well above our cost of capital to our shareholders, and also giving us a opportunity to, again, improve the overall volatility of our earnings profile through cycle performance is much more consistent over the long-term.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. That's it. That's very clear. Thank you. And if I might just have a follow-up on the rebar market. You just announced you looking for some investment there. Yes, basically, what are you seeing in terms of supply and demand medium term. I know there's been a lot of project be announced. But I'm not sure if they're going through with the interest rate being where they are. So how comfortable are you with the medium term supply and demand balance you're seeing on the rebar market to make this type of investments? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Tristan, I'll start it off and maybe ask John Hollatz, our EVP over bar products to comment as well. But, look, we announced an exploration that we're going to look into the Pacific Northwest, as we think about what we've done in the bar group itself in the -- our footprint in rebar is significant. And so, in the micromill strategies and what we've seen in the bar group itself in the -- our footprint in rebar is significant. And so in the micro mill strategies and what we've seen in Sedalia and Frostproof and now what we're getting to see come online in '25 in Lexington, North Carolina, it gives us an awful lot of excitement and optimism, but so do all our other facilities that are running rebar. So the market is growing, we know that. We know it's going to grow similar to that 2 million ton range. And to your point, there's a lot of announced capacity, not sure all of that will see light of day. But again, we know the Pacific Northwest we have our Seattle operations play. It's been running a long time and consistently one of our great financial performer and return to the team there does an amazing job. And so we know the customers there, we know the growth that's going to be there. And again, we think it holds a great deal of promise as we evaluate this in the coming months. John?
John Hollatz:
Yes, thank you, Leon. As Leon mentioned, we're really proud of what our Seattle team has delivered since we bought that mill with the acquisition of Birmingham Steel in 2002. And our team has also done a really good job of positioning us for future success in this market. We're really optimistic about the growth opportunities that we see in the Pacific Northwest and in the Canadian markets. The challenge that we faced with our Seattle facility is it's been in its current location since 1905. And the mill sits on a very small footprint. Over the last century, the city has really grown around us, which has limited our ability to grow our capacity and our capabilities. So the strategy here is really to position Nucor for success for the next 50 years to take advantage of the cost and the efficiencies that we've experienced with our micromill technology as well as increasing our product offerings. We're certainly well aware of all of the other mills that have been announced. We're following those projects closely. We're really not in a position to speak on that. But we're excited about what we're doing at Kingman. We're excited about what we have coming up in Lexington as well.
Tristan Gresser:
All right, I appreciate the color. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from Carlos de Alba of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos de Alba:
Yes, good morning everyone. So -- just on the steel products, the steel fabrication business, you did mention that profitability has moderated, although it remains quite strong above pre-COVID levels. Can you provide a little bit more color regarding your order book, your backlog? Where does it extend to? And any sort of magnitude of the potential deceleration -- continued deceleration, if that is what you're seeing in the fourth quarter and perhaps into the 2024 year in terms of pricing and volumes, anything will be quite important for us.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Carlos, thanks for the question. I'll kick it off and then maybe ask Brad True to comment. Obviously, we're not going to give you pricing speculation into the back half of this year in door 2024. But here's what I would tell you and I think context becomes really important as we talk about our steel products segment of our business. Again, it's generating now 40% of our overall net earnings, and that's been an incredible opportunity for Nucor. We've had seven straight quarters where they generated $1 billion or more. And so again, over the last seven quarters, it generated $7 billion in earnings. It's been an incredible platform for us to continue to grow and continue to think about the diversity of mix that we bring to the marketplace, but it is softening. It is coming down from our peak highs and historic highs in '21, '22 season. And so again, they're moderating, but there's no cliff. We're not seeing this -- the order books dry up. We're seeing softening in backlog. But again, as compared to sort of pre-pandemic levels, those backlogs are up 20%, 25% still over that period of time. So again, it's softening, but I would tell you that we are still optimistic about as we finish 2023 and head into '24, some of those backlogs are extending out into Q2 already with favorable pricing. So Brad, do you want to add any more detail on that?
Brad True:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. As Leon mentioned, backlogs have come down some, but are still well above pre-pandemic levels. And we have strong pricing in our backlog. We'll see some seasonal slowdown as we normally do this time of year. But we'll still have great results and strong earnings in Q4. One thing I would mention in addition is our diverse product portfolio continues to differentiate Nucor. While we saw moderating pricing and volume mainly driven by warehouse demand in our joist and deck business. We saw near record and record earnings in our pre-engineered metal buildings businesses, our insulated metal panel business and rebar fab. All three had stronger earnings quarter-over-quarter. And again, we'll see some seasonal slowdown in construction, but we really believe there's been a structural shift in the earnings profile of our fab product businesses. The other thing we're seeing is a lot of cross-selling opportunities. We are bringing multiproduct solutions to our customers that bring value to them, bring value to Nucor in a way of we've never done in the past.
Carlos de Alba:
All right. Thanks for that. And just if I could maybe press on the point. What do you think has changed versus pre-pandemic conditions that have allowed the company to command a much higher price and therefore, much higher margins than it did in the past. Is there any -- like can you point us to something fundamentally different than what we had before because the construction market is softening, as you mentioned. So wouldn't that potentially make the market a little bit looser and therefore, reduce your pricing?
Leon Topalian:
Carlos, look, what I would touch on immediately out of the gate is what Brad just mentioned, which is our product breadth is a key differentiator. So again, we are not under Damian [ph] the entire commercial team at Nucor. We're approaching that market to look and say, how do we provide a solution set not just provide and sell a product. So our teams, our Construction Solutions group, our Energy Solutions groups are going out now and meeting with customers attaching them to maybe areas and products that weren't traditionally purchased either mill direct or that weren't coupled together that we now can bring to bear as an entire offering to provide a solution set. As we think about the manufacturing build out and warehouse build out, how do we now look to offer, again, the complete solution, not just in piece or part on and product of. And so I would tell you that is gaining a lot of traction and intention. The other piece is the sustainability. There's a lot of people that are trademarked and branded their products in the green space, but very few, if any, in the world at our scale. And so the scale of which we're running our iconic products and net zero products today is getting a lot of attention and not just through the OEMs in automotive. It's a much more diverse customer set today that we're seeing that are demanding those products anything in the industry.
Carlos de Alba:
Great. Thank you. Sorry, [indiscernible].
Steve Laxton:
Add one other element to that. You'll recall you followed us for a long time, but Nucor took some actions several years ago to restructure a few different businesses in that downstream steel products group. And while that's not something we really love doing. The teams did a wonderful job to bring efficiencies within our own systems there to use it. But the predominant reason is exactly what Leon outlined.
Carlos de Alba:
All right. Great. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Carlos.
Operator:
The next question is from Bill Peterson of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Bill Peterson:
Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. A couple, I guess, market-related questions. So if we think about the steel market today, I'm trying to get a sense of how you're anticipating the market reactions to maybe a prolonged UAW strike versus maybe in the median end and especially in the context of we've seen some mill discipline in the past few months, some of the maintenance extended. Just to get a sense of how the reaction would be under those two scenarios?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I'll start us off with the first one. And I'm not sure I fully caught the second part of the question, Bill, but if I don't, please just reask that second half. Nucor's exposure to automotive today is about 1.5 million tons. So we don't -- that's 5% or 6% of our overall volume. So it's not a huge exposure for us directly. Obviously, we're watching in the automotive sector in the United States and the U.S. economy. We'll potentially the longer it goes, have a more profound impact to the overall industry. But the part that Nucor remains excited and very committed to is to doubling that capacity over the next 3 to 5 years to moving from 1.5 million tons to about 3 million tons of our overall volume and footprint. And over the last several -- we've continued to grow. We've continued to invent ourselves as a preferred supplier. We've now won the GM Supplier of the Year Award for the last 4 straight years. And so we are excited about those things. We are excited about what our teams are doing to create some of the most advanced high-strength steels in the marketplace. And again, despite some of the rhetoric coming from other competitors, Nucor is positioned incredibly well to make the most advanced grades that they are required by the U.S. auto industry. So ultimately, if you're asking in the broader context, the longer this goes, the more impact we're going to see in the overall economy, not having a massive impact to the overall Nucor footprint. But again, I hope this ends quickly and we can move forward and continue to generate. There's a lot of demand out there. Even in spite of the strike, I think the overall expectation is in that 15.2 or 3 million units to be produced for 2023. And hopefully, we can get back on track and continue to supply into that market.
Bill Peterson:
Yes. No, that addresses the question. I had a question on CapEx. You talked about the CapEx now projected at $2.4 billion versus prior $3 billion. I guess how should we start thinking about next year, I guess, with the additional $600 million? And I guess, even maybe out of a few years, what does the normalized level start to look like for the company given the projects you've outlined?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hey, Bill. Thanks for the question. So I think it's a good indicator. First of all, we will give guidance on the year after we get approval from our Board on capital spending, which we do at the end of every year. So stay tuned on our next call, we'll give a more precise update. But directionally, you should assume that our capital spending will be heavier than historic averages. When you look at the pipeline, some of the bigger projects coming through right now, you can see that we're going to be spending more over the next year or two. And then just as a framework item for you to help you in some of your modeling, our maintenance CapEx, what we consider maintenance, which we would include spares and safety-related CapEx as well, and that is probably somewhere around $600 million a year. We have given a little bit of the Investor Relations team put out the slide deck sometime think around the first or second quarter that showed some of the larger product projects, how much is getting spent this year versus next year. So you can use that as a good framework for estimating your next year fee.
Bill Peterson:
Great. Thanks for that. If I could sneak one more, kind of, again, a bigger picture. We were aware that the U.S. may be looking to remove the EU tariff rate quotas and understanding that nothing was concluded at this time, and it remains fluid. I guess how would you see this impacting the U.S. steel market? And I guess, what are the potential outcomes should the quotas be increased? I'm asking in the context of Nucor's obviously been an important part of [technical difficulty] of the U.S. steel market.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Bill, look, there's a lot going on. The talks today with the global arrangement in the European Union. And again, we've seen over the last really 3 years, us move from a tariff to a tariff rate quota. And again, the important picture really has been pretty consistent over the last several years, probably still a little high in some areas, but that 20%, 21%, 22% of the overall market. Again, I think, a healthier number is in that 15%, 16%, but I don't see a material change because we have it when we watch the USMCA and get -- perhaps did the Corus agreement with Korea, the agreements with Brazil and other nations, we've not seen that open up the floodgates. One of the bright spots that I've commented too many times, the confidence that we have, and I have in secretary Raimondo, Commerce Secretary or USTR and Katherine Tai, her counsel [indiscernible] they are very accomplished leaders, and they know this industry incredibly well and Nucor will remain a tireless advocate to make sure we create a level playing field of the United States. And again, those three leaders really understand this industry well, and you're doing a really nice job of making sure that shifting to a TRQ does not open up the floodgates to see a massive uptick in dumping legally or subsidized steels into the U.S.
Bill Peterson:
Yes, thanks for those insights.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Bill.
Operator:
The next question is from Martin Englert of Seaport. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Hello. Good morning, everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good morning.
Martin Englert:
Estimated steel conversion costs for the quarter, they had increased to around, I think, $518 per ton, and while I understand some of it includes some substrate costs, can you discuss some of the sequential impacts from the changes qualitatively both on anything to do with substrate as well as the true underlying conversion costs. I think you alluded to some of this related to the lower utilization quarter-on-quarter in your prepared remarks as well.
Steve Laxton:
Martin, thanks for the question. And I think you summed up actually pretty well. Utilization rates have a big impact on the cost that's a major driver, and you highlighted that. We also saw a cost increase really [ph] in supplies and services and consumables. So these are sort of product [technical difficulty]. I think what's important too, Martin, is to keep in mind, in general, when you look year-over-year, commercial costs are down and I think that's encouraging against the backdrop of what we would have had. We were having this conversation a year ago, we were all concerned about inflationary pressures in the cost system. Those appear to have moderated notwithstanding the quarter-over-quarter changes we had, which were predominantly due to our own production choices of the company. Is that helpful?
Martin Englert:
Yes, helpful. Anything with pivots with substrate costs or not a material impact quarter-on-quarter.
Steve Laxton:
By substrate, you mean raw materials?
Martin Englert:
Meaning when you have that [indiscernible], if you have to purchase substrates run across them that wouldn't -- I don't think it's captured in the ferrous cost, right?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. That's correct, Martin. That's a good point. The slab purchases at CSI, we record in consumables, not in the raw materials. So that does have an impact. And so that's part of the change that you're seeing that's not reflected in the raw material scrap numbers.
Martin Englert:
Okay, got it. And just kind of parsing to your comments about the inflation and the implications there and the concerns a year ago, I guess, when looking back at conversion costs in the back half of last year, presumably, there's some -- you called it out in the qualitative guidance lower volumes anticipated in the steel business quarter-on-quarter lower utilization. So probably some uptick in conversion costs, net-net, although you highlighted this quarter, they were below where they were at a year ago in the comparable period. Is that kind of the right framework to be thinking about?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. I think, Martin, if you're modeling out for the fourth quarter, you might see more close to flat cost quarter-over-quarter rather than an uptick, continued uptick. That's just because of where you see some of the trends -- for example, if you look at things like sheet, it likely has bottomed out at this point. So that has an impact on the system and how costs flow through our system. So you may see -- you may not see the same rate of increase on a per ton basis going into the fourth quarter and so in the third quarter.
Martin Englert:
Understood. Could we briefly discuss seasonality in 4Q within the steel business? Recent years, some of the sequential declines have been rather steep in excess of 10% but before that, it was kind of around mid single digits. And I think you had commented in prepared remarks earlier in the discussion of about anticipating maybe a small sequential decline in volumes in the fourth quarter here. Any other color to add there or thoughts?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Martin, I think from where we sit today with what Brad highlighted, some comments about downstream products, order book and backlog and where we sit. I think those -- the trend being closer to those historic averages rather than some of the volatility you saw over the last year or two is probably an accurate statement.
Martin Englert:
Okay. If I could one last one, again, that's going to come back to some of the prepared remarks on expecting declines on pricing across the three business segments into 4Q here, but specifically narrowing in on steel products here. It was a fairly small decline of about $47 per ton sequentially. Thinking about the commentary on the backlog extending into next year and still good pricing off from peak. But any color regarding the cadence of steel products pricing 4Q versus 3Q, whether it would be something on [indiscernible] $50 or something differing in magnitude?
Leon Topalian:
Hey, Martin, it's Leon. I don't know if we are going to provide you any more color on pricing outlook. Again, I think what we've tried to indicate is again, we see some of that softness as we head into the last quarter of this year. But again, context, particularly in our steel products that has generated incredible returns, coupled with Brad's comments earlier, which was to say there has been a fundamental shift in that overall market where we've seen a -- again, a different reset in the pricing levels that we believe are more sustainable. So again, while we see some softness heading into the last quarter, again, the resiliency of that sector has been remarkable, sending all the way back to the pandemic. So again, we see that as one of our strongest performers as we move into 2024 and that to continue to be the case.
Martin Englert:
Okay. I appreciate all the color and nice job navigating the down market. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Martin.
Operator:
The next question is from Katja Jancic of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Katja Jancic:
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Quickly on the Brandenburg Plate Mill, can you let us know what the production level was this quarter? And how we should think about the ramp-up at the mill in 4Q and also into next year?
Al Behr:
Yes, Katja, this is Al Behr. Happy to -- thank you for the questions. Just some comments around the ramp up in Brandenburg. First, there's a lot of things that are going quite well with the capabilities of the mill that was the strategy for us to build Brandenburg, was to broaden our capability in plate. And we've hit several milestones in the quarter. We ran the caster to its full set of capabilities. We've cross rolled plate almost to the full width of the mill, which is 168 inches. We've commissioned our continuous heat treat lines. So the team continues to work really, really hard on hitting some key milestones. You asked about volume. We guided to about 300,000 tons in the second half. We are going to be under that. We'll probably maybe closer to 160,000 tons. Part of that is just due to the complexity of the mill itself and there's equipment complexity, there's software complexity and automation. Part of that is also a strategic decision for us to make sure we're using Brandenburg to its strategic intent, which was to go after parts of the market where we couldn't compete. So rather than hitting volume targets and impacting the returns at our other two plate mills because we operate a portfolio of mills and Brandenburg is an important part of it, but there's two other legs to that stool. We want to be really strategic on how we bring those tons forward. So that's the best number I could give you for the second half is about 160,000 tons total. And then we're headed in the next year after that.
Katja Jancic:
And for next year, is there any color you can provide about the ramp up, or how much it could produce?
Al Behr:
Yes. I would say we'd be closer to what we would have intended for the run rate through this half. I think we'll be up north of 0.5 million tons for the year and probably more than that, but we'll continue to stay focused on driving incremental return through the group and being as strategic as we can about using those tons to our best strategic advantage.
Katja Jancic:
Perfect. Again just quickly on the tax rate. It seems like the tax rate this quarter was a little lower. How should we think about it in 4Q? Is there anything we should be thinking about there?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. I think the guidance on the tax rate is that will move around a little bit with how you believe the year is going to end up. So you pay your taxes quarterly, but it's based on annual estimate. So I'll let you use your own modeling to estimate what you think the fourth quarter is.
Katja Jancic:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Phil Gibbs:
Hey, good morning. Steve, I just wanted to qualify the comment you made about the fourth quarter decline being more than that of the third quarter decline on a sequential basis. Were you talking about absolute EBITDA dollars? Or were you talking about more of a percentage?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hey, Phil. Thanks for the question. And on the fourth quarter outlook, that's really more about the total EBITDA outlook. But I think if you're looking at the change that happened in the third quarter, that's a very good indication for the direction that we are seeing headed into the fourth quarter if you want some framework. So again, I'll let you decide how you want to more fit into your own estimates.
Phil Gibbs:
And then on Gallatin, did you provide -- I may have missed it, but did you provide any color on the state of that project?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Phil, I'll ask Rex Query to give you an update, part of his group, the Sheet group.
Rex Query:
Yes, Phil, thanks for the question. Currently as we mentioned in our second quarter call, we are full run rate capable. With that said, during the third quarter, we continue to work on some of our automation issues, which have impacted our consistency. But really from a production standpoint, as we look at our entire group, we've gauged on what demand is in the marketplace. And that's really what we focused on. But again, just to reiterate, I mean, in Gallatin we are on full run rate capacity at this point.
Phil Gibbs:
Thank you. And then lastly for me is on the new announcement on the -- in the Northwest with the rebar micro mill. Guess really what drove that decision? And I guess what are the expectations for when that could be contributing?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Phil, again, it was an announcement that we are going to work through, and John Hollatz and his teams are going to work through and look at the diligence and all the variables that go into bring that project to fruition. But the drivers of that, I think John touched on really well. That mill has been around since 1905 and as that city has grown up expanding that footprint becomes a significant challenge. So how do we do that? How do we continue to serve our customers? How do we continue to serve those markets and gaining new customers. And again, we see some opportunities out there that are compelling that we think the strategies that the team is engaged on are going to potentially effectuate a great long-term outcome. Again, Seattle has been an incredible producer for Nucor, for our customers, shareholders. And so again, against that backdrop of providing the most capabilities for our customers are really the drivers behind this exploration in our future.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks, Leon. I had one further, and I apologize, but it just popped in my mind here. What's the current appetite for M&A across the spectrum, whether that's in mills or fab or recycling. I know you've obviously made a lot of internal investments. So you can be more in control of kind of the long-term asset quality and cost base of what you're investing in. But what's the appetite to add on that capability with M&A? And how willing are any of the potential targets you're looking at? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Phil, what I would tell you is that we've generated an awful lot of free cash flow. We've got a lot of cash. We've got the best credit rating in the industry. So all those things said, there's no desperation -- there hasn't been. There wasn't in '21 and '22 and the record years of Nucor. It was an incredibly disciplined approach to think about growth. But make no mistake, we are going to grow. We are going to invest. We're going to continue to maximize our shareholder returns. We are going to continue to be great stewards of the shareholder capital we are entrusted with. We are going to return our 40%. We are going to maintain an incredibly strong credit rating but we're going to invest further in the future. We're going to look at so I would tell you the appetite is continually strong with again, a very disciplined mindset that is cash isn't burning a hole in our pocket. We are not going to chase things. We are going to look for the things that create EVA for our shareholders, period, full stop. Again, under the umbrella of the cultural fit that matches Nucor's longstanding traditions of how we know we can maximize that return is through the team, through the incredible culture that Nucor is been a proud part of for 60 years, that is driving and guiding our decisions and how we think about those companies that we choose to engage and bring on in Nucor. Thanks, Phil.
Operator:
The next question is from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. Hey, good morning, everyone. I wanted to follow-up on Phil's question and see if I could ask it a little differently. But on a call we were just on and most of us, we heard that there's a view of one of the other steel mills that there could be further consolidation in the flat rolled sector. So do you agree that there's further -- you've been making your investments to grow organically in a lot of ways. But do you think there's also ability to further consolidate without running into any issues in antitrust?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, Timna, I think like you, we are watching that play out as well. And so we'll see how that shakes out in the coming weeks and months and years. But again, what I cannot speculate on some of that, what I can tell you for sure is our strategy is clear in how we want to think about growing this company and investing for our future. So historically, what we've seen is the industry is consolidated. That's been a healthy thing for the steel industry. It's been a good outcome. And so whether or not certain companies meet DOJ hurdles, I can't even begin to speculate on, but again, like you, we are watching how this plays out, and we'll stay tuned.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. So let me switch gears a little bit and kind of ask, on the flat rolled side, you've been ramping up Gallatin and Brandenburg for a while, but not -- it doesn't seem like you're running flat rolled anywhere near full out. If we look at the sheet volumes, they're down quarter-over-quarter despite Gallatin ramping up. So you're running your sheet at less than full utilization, but you're also starting a new sheet mill. Is that going to displace any capacity? Or are you thinking that will be incremental? Because I know on the rebar side, you've been pretty disciplined and not adding a lot of extra capacity, but is flat rolled a different market for a reason that I might be missing? It would be great to hear your thoughts on that. Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I'll share a couple of perspectives. The first thing though I want to do is decouple Gallatin and Brandenburg. Brandenburg's not been in the startup for a while. They are on target. They completed that project on schedule, on time and on budget with one of the highest safety outcomes we've ever seen in the history of Nucor. So I couldn't be more proud of how they've executed that and how the plate group is going to market. So I would tell you that's very different from what we've seen in Gallatin, where, again, I'm not sure all of our -- obviously, you've been doing a number of Nucor facilities. When you look in the visits I've made to Gallatin and what they had to do, the integration of we call it a brownfield, but they essentially were greenfield and everything from automation in the control systems that are required to bring that new equipment online was Herculean, the team's worked incredibly well safely, but there were a lot of startup issues that cost us 6 to 8 months of where we thought we were going to be. Your ultimate question of, are we going to peg the utilization rates to the outcomes? The answer is no. We are going to look at making sure that the tons we bring into the market are balanced. We are not just going to run 1-inch plate at Brandenburg because they can when Hertford or Tuscaloosa can do something already make those tons and serve that customer need. But Rex or Al, any other additional comments you'd like to make.
Rex Query:
Tim, this is Rex Query. As I look at our capabilities across our sheet mills, we are positioning ourselves to rationalize product based on -- I'm going to say the capability and the efficiency levels of our various plants. So if you look at our pickle galv line, at Gallatin, which we have continued to support through all of these changes at Gallatin and supply into the automotive market, heavy frame applications. You look at our expansions in the coated side, a new Gallatin announced for Berkley with tremendous automotive supply there from that plant. So we are going to expand capability there, our investments in [indiscernible] so we really look to make sure that we are expanding capabilities, value added we are growing in our capabilities with our customers, not just only in volume. We are going to focus on margin and bottom line profitability. Frankly, that's going to be our focus.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. I was just trying to get an answer to the question on the sheet mills. Are they going to be -- the additional Westford industry, will that be incremental capacity? Or like you were alluding to on the rebar side, could it replace existing capacity? And if it's incremental, is there room for another 3 million tons in the market? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I think it's a fair question, and it's going to be both. This is the short answer. Part of the driver for that as we think about the sustainability model and where our customer segment is asking us to go and has been asking us to go, that's going to be an incredible need. And don't forget that that mill is going to sit in the largest sheet consuming range in the United States where Nucor is underserved. We don't have as much market share that we know we are going to be able to go in and provide for our customers. So there's no doubt that both pieces of that strategy are going to come into play in the coming years as we ramp that up. And so no, we are not building 3 million tons of capacity that we think we're going to run in 2.1. We have full expectations that we are going to build it to 3, and it's going to run at 3.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thank you.
Steve Laxton:
What you just said, the incrementally in new capacity.
Timna Tanners:
Got it. Thanks again.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
In closing, I'd like to thank our Nucor team members for the way you've executed our growth strategy and continue to raise the bar on our safety. Let's carry this performance through and finish the rest of this year and make this the fifth straight year of record performance. I'd like to also thank our customers for the trust you place in us with each and every order. And finally, thank you to our shareholders and the trust you place in us to be great stewards of the capital. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Nucor Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jack Sullivan, General Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's second quarter 2023 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Brad Ford, over fabricated products; Noah Hanners raw materials John Hollatz, Bar Products and Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial Strategy; Rex Query, Sheet and Tubular Products; and Chad Utermark, New Products and Innovation. We posted our second quarter earnings release and investor presentation to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials, as we'll cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I'd like to begin by thanking the 31,000 members of the Nucor team for delivering another outstanding quarter. The investments we've made in recent years to grow our core and expand into new markets for generating strong returns for our shareholders, increased capabilities for our customers, and the Nucor team is executing safely and efficiently. In fact, through the first half of 2023, we're on track to set another annual safety record for the fifth straight year. Further proof of the world-class performance by Nucor teammates who live our culture every single day. Looking at our financial performance in the second quarter, Nucor generated approximately 2.2 billion of EBITDA and 1.5 billion of net earnings or $5.81 per diluted share. On a year-to-date basis, we've generated 4 billion in EBITDA and $10.26 earnings per share, representing our second-best start to any fiscal year in Nucor's history. Each of the three reporting segments saw higher earnings in Q2 compared to Q1 with the largest gains coming from the steel mill segments, which saw higher realized pricing. The steel mills orderbook remains healthy, with strong demand from automotive, energy, heavy equipment, bridge construction, data centers and manufacturing. And within steel products, Q2 marks the fifth consecutive quarter with segment earnings of approximately $1 billion or higher, and we continue to see a healthy backlog at attractive margins through the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, we believe steel market for the remainder of the year will remain healthy, driven by strong manufacturing investment and infrastructure spending. U.S. GDP growth forecasts for 2023 have been revised upward on multiple occasions in response to economic data that continues to demonstrate the resiliency of the U.S. economy. Turning to our growth strategy, we've completed slightly more than 50% of our $10 billion CapEx plan to grow our core steelmaking operations. Several of these investments are already generating incremental earnings and growing our share in key markets. Over the next several years, we'll continue to execute on our CapEx plan to better position Nucor with more value-added steelmaking capabilities. In our sheet mill group, we've continued our ramp up in Nucor Steel Gallatin in the second quarter. The Gallatin team has achieved full run rate production levels in June and saw increasing levels of profitability each month of the quarter. I'd like to congratulate our entire Gallatin team for their continued focus on safely bringing the facility to full run rate production, as well as taking care of our customers during this time. At Nucor Steel West Virginia, we expect to begin construction in the coming weeks. We remain excited about this transformative project to serve the heartland of American steel consumption, with a considerably lower carbon footprint. In our plate mill group, the Brandenburg team in Kentucky continues to ramp up production at the most advanced EAF plate mill in the world as we shared before, our focus at Brandenburg in 2023 is on improving our capabilities rather than maximizing output. We spent the first half of the year dialing in the caster and downstream operations, and we're now producing finished products ranging in thicknesses from 1 to 12 inches. In the second half of '23, we expect to produce approximately 300,000 tons and turn profitable by year's end. Our customers continue to express strong interest in Brandenburg's capabilities, and our team there is working to ensure we can provide a full range of plate solutions. Finally, in the Bar Mill group, construction on our new rebar micromill in Lexington, North Carolina, broke ground in May and is slated for completion by early 2025. This highly efficient 430,000 ton bar mill will serve the growing construction markets throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions. Our steel products segment continues to generate strong earnings with nearly 2 billion of pre-tax earnings year-to-date, representing 45% of Nucor's earnings mix for the first half of 2023. This is a testament to our industry-leading capabilities across a broad array of engineered steel construction products and solutions. Today, Nucor can produce an estimated 90% of the steel intensity of a typical manufacturing facility, or large warehouse. With over 100 fabrication centers throughout North America, we are the leading supplier of the steel products most commonly used in non-residential construction. Last year, we provided solutions to more than 5000 steel products customers, with non-representing more than 5% of consolidated revenue. And we're leveraging our channels to market in broad capabilities to cross-sell products such as overhead doors, racking and other solutions. In recent years, our customers are attributing more value to the solutions we provide helping to depart from the traditional cost-plus paradigm. They recognize the incremental value we provide through engineering, detailing, fabrication, custom finishing, and our nationwide logistics capabilities. As a result, products such as joist and deck, pre-engineered metal buildings, and insulated metal panels command higher margins than in years past. Our performance also reflects some fundamental changes we've made to improve efficiencies in metal buildings and rebar fabrication, which are now driving better results for our customers and our shareholders. Turning to our expand beyond strategy, we're pleased with the initial success of our four new growth platforms, and we continue to develop a pipeline of potential growth opportunities. During the second quarter Nucor towers and structures announced the location of our second new production facility in Crawfordsville. Indiana. There is considerable growth potential in the utility infrastructure market with a need to expand and harden transmission infrastructure, while accelerating the connection of distributed renewable energy to the grid. As we evaluate and pursue new expand beyond platforms, we're focused on opportunities that leverage our core capability as an efficient industrial manufacturer and are aligned with steel intensive mega trends or themes. Passage and implementation of the infrastructure Bill IRA in CHIPS and Science Act are helping to drive these megatrends and Nucor intends to capitalize on them further to grow and diversify our earnings potential. The goal of our growth strategy is not simply about being the biggest steel company. It's about providing a differentiated capability set for our customers and creating long-term economic value for our shareholders. We aim to generate returns over the economic cycle comparable to the best manufacturing companies in the world. That's why we're seeking opportunities with attractive growth rates, stronger free cash flow, great synergy potential and more stable earnings profiles. Before turning it over to Steve, I'd like to provide some updates on our sustainability strategy. In May, we announced an MOU with NuScale to explore locating NuScale small modular reactor power plants near certain Nucor Steel mills. In June, we announced a partnership with ExxonMobil to capture, transport and store CO2 emissions from our DRI plant in Louisiana. We believe this is the first carbon capture project of any DRI facility and will enable us to produce the lowest embodied carbon DRI in the world. Even though our emissions intensity is already 60% lower than the global steelmaking average, Nucor continues to aggressively pursue strategies that further differentiate itself as the leader in sustainability for our industry. With that, let me turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details about our Q2 performance, as well as our outlook for Q3. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon. Nucor just completed another terrific quarter, the company had consolidated net earnings of nearly $1.5 billion, resulting in return on equity of 30% over the past 12 months. In fact, the second quarter of this year marks our ninth consecutive quarter where both net earnings exceeded $1 billion and return on equity exceeded 25%. These results highlight the advancement of our strategy and the growing earnings power of Nucor's diversified portfolio, and industry-leading capabilities. It also demonstrates solid execution by the Nucor team and ongoing favorable conditions across important steel consuming end markets such as construction, automotive, energy and industrial equipment. At the segment level, our steel mills group delivered $1.4 billion of pre-tax earnings in the second quarter, an increase of 68% over the first quarter. This was due to higher metal margins, especially at our sheet mills, as gains on realized pricing on steel outpaced higher prices for both scrap and ore base metallics. Second quarter steel shipments were similar to that of the first quarter. During the period, we realized slightly lower conversion costs including lower energy rates. Turning to our Steel Products segment. We saw another period of outstanding performance with segment pretax earnings of just over $1 billion. We continue to realize attractive pricing and margins, even as some subsectors like warehouses continue to moderate from their historically high levels of 2022. While Nucor operates a diverse portfolio of downstream steel products, some of the strongest contributions came from our joist and deck business and our pre-engineered metal buildings group. We also saw improved results in our rebar fabrication and Tubular Products businesses. In addition, as Leon mentioned, we've seen very positive contributions from our newly acquired Expand Beyond platform businesses. Our raw materials segment produced pretax earnings of $138 million for the quarter. Relative to the first quarter of the year, we realized higher volumes and pricing in both our DRI and recycling businesses. During the second quarter, we also continued to generate strong free cash flow, with cash from operations totaling $1.9 billion for the quarter and $3.1 billion year-to-date. This strong cash flow allowed Nucor to continue its balanced approach to capital allocation. In the second quarter, we deployed $525 million in capital expenditures as we continue to enhance and grow our core. We also returned $580 million to shareholders, including approximately $130 million in dividends and $450 million in share repurchases. Year-to-date, we've returned roughly 44% of our net earnings to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Nucor's balance sheet strength continues to be a fundamental underpinning of our current and future success. At quarter end, Nucor had approximately $5.4 billion in cash and short-term investments, and our revolving credit facility remains undrawn. This strong liquidity position enables us to continue our balanced approach to capital allocation. Leon referenced the progress we're making on our $10 billion capital spending plan to leverage and grow our core, but we still have significant spending in our largest project ahead of us. We expect capital spending related to our West Virginia sheet mill to accelerate in the near term as we begin the construction phase of this project. And as mentioned earlier, we continue to cultivate a viable pipeline of growth opportunities to expand into new adjacent businesses. Maintaining the strong balance sheet and sufficient liquidity are centrally important to enabling and positioning Nucor for continued future success. Turning to our outlook for the third quarter, we currently expect consolidated earnings to be lower than the second quarter. At the segment level for the third quarter, we expect earnings from steel mills to decrease compared to the second quarter on stable shipments but lower margins as we've seen prices come down for sheet and, to a lesser extent, long products. In our Steel Products segment, we expect performance will continue to moderate from the record-setting earnings of recent quarters due to modestly lower pricing and stable volumes. For the raw materials segment, we expect lower earnings in the third quarter due to margin compression of our DRI and scrap processing operations. Overall, non-residential construction remains elevated with especially strong activity from infrastructure spending, data centers and manufacturing. In addition, positive trends continue in the automotive and energy sectors. In short, we believe medium and long-term fundamentals of our industry and key demand drivers remain very healthy. This coupled with our strategy to grow our core and expand beyond position Nucor for strength well into the future. With that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you might have. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Alex Hacking of Citi. Please go ahead.
Alex Hacking:
I guess just my first question, just drilling down on demand a little bit. If we look at shipments of long steel, bars and structurals, it's down about 10% year-over-year. I guess what's driving that kind of year-on-year decline? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Alex, I appreciate the question. As we look over the course of this year compared to last, we're coming off historic highs, historic backlogs in volumes. And so some of that's moderating. We're seeing, again, continued robust demand in many of those sectors, particularly around non-risk construction, auto advanced manufacturing and the likes. Maybe provide a little more context on some of those long products and what we're seeing in the marketplace today.
John Hollatz:
Good morning, Alex. This is John Hollatz. I'll speak specifically to long products. So you've got to keep in mind that when it comes to Nucor's long products portfolio, we have the most diverse offering of any long product company out there. We've got rebar, merchants, SBQ and rod all mixed into those numbers. The rebar demand has remained steady. That's about even with where it was last year as we would expect. Where we've seen some declines on the rod side and on the SBQ, you've seen inventory buildups over the course of last year that have been making their way down over the course of this year, and we're feeling some impact of that. But again, the bigger portion of that is the rebar side, which remains very consistent.
Alex Hacking:
Thanks Leon and John. It's very helpful. And then I guess my second question, I guess, turning to the sheet side, shipments there modestly lower year-on-year despite adding 400,000 tons from Gallatin, your peers have generally been reporting shipments higher year-on-year. Sitting on the outside, it looks like maybe Nucor is happy to concede a little bit of market share in the short-term. Is that a fair assessment? Or is there kind of something else going on? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Well, yes, I appreciate that. And a couple of things to note. And again, context is important in a number of different aspects, not the least of which. The second quarter of last year was historic for Nucor and really our industries. And so at that time, we're peaking and setting records in about every category that you can imagine, including about 7 million tons of shipments in that quarter alone, 2.5 of which was in our sheet group. And so what I would tell you is we look at Q2 of this year, we're not conceding market share. And in fact, we're growing some of that. And I'm going to ask Rex Query to touch base and give you a little bit more flavor of that. Nucor is focused on providing a capability set out for our customers, again, not just volume. At the same time, we're not going to concede market share. We're going to be delivered and how we ramp up. We've thought very deliberately about how we bring Gallatin on. I'm proud of what they and their team have done from a safety standpoint, from a reliability standpoint. And again, really taking a complete brownfield revamp of that facility while delayed, I'm really proud of the efforts that the team has made and now profitable and running at full run rate level. So Rex, provide a little more clarity for Alex around that in our market share gains.
Rex Query:
Yes, Alex, appreciate the question. As Leon mentioned, second quarter last year really was extremely high in volume. So it matters where you start at when you look at that from -- just a relative tonnage standpoint. So you saw, I would tell you, basically been stable. And as far as market share, if you go back to that time frame versus now in the last year, we picked up a couple of points of market share. For first quarter, we're up about 4 points in market share. So from that standpoint, we've grown it imports, have decreased slightly over that time. So from a standpoint of someone else growing, they're getting that from somewhere else, not from Nucor. At the same time, we're expanding our capabilities. So you're seeing us expand market share, but also expand our capabilities into our customers for higher quality products.
Alex Hacking:
Thanks Leon and Rex. I appreciate the context and clarification.
Operator:
The next question comes from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to ask a bit more about your backlog. I know you talked about healthy backlogs. You alluded to some of the weakness in warehouses, but also talked about a healthy government program support. So just wondering if you could provide any further color, recent warehouse starts up on over 50%. Have you seen much weakness yet? What are your customers saying there and what are you seeing in terms of evidence of the government spending so far in your backlog?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks, Timna. I'll kind of start it because there's a few different prongs that I want to touch on and maybe ask John Hollatz to touch on some of the flow-through effects that we're already seeing in our order books. But I want to begin with the backdrop. If we take a point in time like June's numbers of a drop of 53%. If you look at the overall year average, it's about down 25%. And again, the 2023 overall forecast is 27% down year-over-year. But you're coming off, again, historic highs. However, June, I think what you're asking is June, an indicator that we've reached some different in a bigger decline that's going to stay with us. I would tell you that it's not indicative of what we're seeing in our quoting data or backlog data. And as we talk to our customers, customers the feedback, reports that we're getting is, again, pretty resilient through the rest of the year. So it is off 2022 peaks. But again, as we think about maybe a 2017 to '19 average, it is still significantly higher than that period of time. So John, maybe just provide a little context around what we're seeing in terms of the infrastructure chips and IRA flowing through our mills.
John Hollatz:
Yes. Thank you, Leon. Good morning, Timna. On the infrastructure bill, we're really seeing still design and budgetary work being done on those projects. So we expect that would flow our way probably more at the end of this year, beginning of 2024. On the chip side, those projects are currently in motion. They are sitting in our backlog. Some have actually been delivered, and we're seeing the benefits of that specifically on the rebar and rebar fabrication side. You asked about backlogs, I'll touch on rebar fabrication. I'm really proud of what our team at Harris Rebar fab has done over the last year. We are comfortably going to have a record year in that business and the margin in our backlog right now is higher than it's been at any time in our history since we have owned this business. Our backlogs are down just slightly year-over-year. That's by design where we were coming off of a record backlog a year ago. But we're positioning ourselves because of our geographic footprint across the entire country to take advantage of this wave of work that continues to come with the CHIPS act and the infrastructure bill.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thanks for that color. Very helpful. If I could sneak another one in. I just wanted to kind of clarify. I sensed a couple of comments from you guys about potential interest in further downstream M&A. Did I catch that right? And if so, can you elaborate on any of the criteria that you're looking for in markets geography? Anything that you want to provide would be great.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Timna, I'll touch on that. And part of the expand beyond for us is a few filters that I'll share with you. One is a marriage up where we bring value as an industrial manufacturer, right, that there's something to that we bring to bear. We're not looking for disparate businesses, certainly not looking to become a conglomerate and again, having things that don't marry up or we don't bring value to. So that's one. The second is scalable with that we can maintain or grow into a market leadership position. Third is looking for adjacencies that operate somewhat out of the traditional cyclicality of the steel mill world, right? So how do we provide a more stable earnings profile through the long-term. And again, the best example of that is our CHI overhead door business that is operated prior to us acquiring them at a 10% CAGR for 20 years. And so their stability in that earnings profile is something that we look for a lot is we're continuing to look. There are a lot of irons in the fire. I won't get specific into the sectors, but other than to say as we look at the mega trends that are happening in our industry in the long-term, how do we continue to broaden that portfolio and again, increasing our value and capability set for customers and the returns for our shareholders.
Operator:
The next question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder:
I just wanted to start off with your commentary on steel products and for those to moderate in Q2. And I ask whether you might be able to provide some more specific direction in terms of what moderation means? Like for example, would that be down like 2%, 5%, 10% versus Q2? Thanks so much.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Lawson, I appreciate the question. And I don't know we're prepared today to talk about that and provide that exact in that one specific end market. What I would tell you as we look to Q3, we expect volumes to remain pretty stable. Again, we think that business segment is pretty resilient. And again, we do see some slight contraction on the overall pricing that's going to flow through. But again, at this time, I'm not going to provide a specific number.
Lawson Winder:
Okay. That's fine. I mean, that's helpful what you've provided. And then I just also wanted to ask on Brandenburg. You continue to expect profitability in Q4. How does Q3 look? And then looking into 2024, how would you describe the profitability outlook for Brandenburg then?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'll ask Al Behr, our EVP over plate products to touch on it. I would just point out and tell you the excitement of Brandenburg to us internally and then to our customer segment in the marketplace has been extraordinary. It is the most diverse capable plate mill in the Western Hemisphere. The team has done a phenomenal job. Again, I shared earlier in my opening remarks about their ramp up and their ability today to produce 1 to 12 inches. Again, we're excited about being in the heartland of the largest plate-consuming region in the United States. Al, do you want to just maybe provide a little bit of insight into Q3 and that ramp up and again our expected profitability by Q4.
Al Behr:
Yes. Thanks. And I don't know, Lawson, if I'm in a position to comment beyond on the profitability, what we've given you about achieving it in Q4. But I can talk a little bit about volumes as we look at the second half. And it's heavily weighted towards Q4. So of the 300,000 tons, I'd say you'd see 100 that in Q3 and 200 of that in Q4. So that might help you to kind of pencil out what that looks like for the year. But as Leon said, we remain focused on the capabilities of that machine, which are extraordinary. We've hit several milestones even within the quarter over rolling a 12-inch finish plate. We've cast a 12-inch slab at that caster. We just continue to grow our capabilities in all the casting, rolling and finishing breadth that plant can do. We're going to be strategic about rolling the tons out. We're going to be careful and thoughtful about it, but I've given you about the best estimate we have on how the second half would look.
Lawson Winder:
That's super helpful. Thanks, Al. And then, when you think about profitability in that sector as well in terms of pricing, I mean, would you expect premium value-add pricing to start coming through in sort of 2024, just given the range of products that you guys will be producing there and the focus on those higher value-add products? Thanks.
Al Behr:
Yes. Well, with regard to pricing, ultimately, the market is going to decide the pricing and supply and demand dynamics do that. I would say Brandenburg is primarily a discrete plate mill and discrete plate does carry a premium over hot-rolled coil plate so that mix will be helpful as you look at just backlog pricing and overall mix pricing, but that's probably as much granularity as I could give you as we just look into the next year.
Lawson Winder:
Okay. That's all very helpful. Thanks very much guys.
Operator:
The next question comes from Bill Peterson of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Bill Peterson:
You discussed some fundamental changes that helped improve the efficiencies in the metal buildings and rebar fabrication. I can recognize that customers are realizing value in the business, but can you elaborate more on, I guess, what you're doing internally, the internal efficiencies that led to the fundamental change or is there any room for further improvement down the road?
Leon Topalian:
Bill, I appreciate the question. Over the last couple of years, really 3, 4 years, we've taken some very, very strong looks in evaluating our own internal portfolio, where do we gain efficiencies, how do we do align certain operations. And we largely feel that the overall footprint today geographically where we're positioned as well as the product offering is a really good balance into the marketplace that in customer segment that we're attached to and the dealer networks that we continue to have support and ultimately supply into. So I would tell you on that internal footprint, I think we feel very well positioned with the moves we've made to date. And while there will be continued efficiency gains, there'll be more smaller in nature. We don't see at this time further consolidation or closures in the future.
Bill Peterson:
Okay. I appreciate the color there. Maybe turning to CapEx. It looks like you spent a little more than $1 billion in the first half of the year. How should we think about the cadence of CapEx in the back half of the year, I guess, taking into account projects like the West Virginia site or any other projects?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hey Bill, this is Steve. Thanks for the question on there. And the back half is definitely going to be a much heavier spend on CapEx. We guided earlier in the year to an estimate of around $3 billion on the year. And of course, we spent only about $1 billion of that so far and the largest project that we have by far is West Virginia, and we're about to enter a phase of construction there. So that's going -- in particular, that asset is going to ramp up rather quickly in the second half.
Operator:
The next question comes from Carlos de Alba of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos de Alba:
You mentioned that you saw a lower cost conversion in the steel segment in the second quarter. I wonder if you can provide a little bit more color in terms of what do you expect for the third quarter, maybe the second half and what is driving those cost reductions? And then, yes, I have a second question, if I may, after.
Steve Laxton:
Carlos, this is Steve. I'll take that question. Generally, what you've seen since the midpoint roughly of last year is overall moderation in cost in general. And of course, that's been reflected in the CPI data and more broadly in the economy, and we're not any different than that. But in particular, energy is down around 20% year-over-year, for example. But you're seeing some moderation in freight cost and supplies and services in particular. Those are some areas we're seeing the biggest declines year-over-year in cost.
Carlos de Alba:
And do you expect the level of declines in the second half to remain close to the 20% so that you mentioned for instance on energy?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. I don't know but I would project further decline necessarily, but we're not seeing the increases that we saw last year.
Carlos de Alba:
All right. Thanks Steve. And the other question I had is, so what we're seeing is that in terms of square footage, commercial warehousing construction is coming down, manufacturing plant is increasing, but warehouse is just far much bigger in terms of area than manufacturing plants, at least where we stand right now, infrastructure is also picking up. I mean, how much exposure do you have to each one of these different segments between the non-residential construction sector? And how quickly, for instance, if you had more exposure to the commercial warehousing, how quickly can you adapt your product mix? So that you can sell more to those areas that are seeing expansions?
Leon Topalian:
Carlos, I will attempt to answer that. So starting with the back half of your question first, our ability to pivot is instantaneous. And so again, we're not making products for our own edification, it's to deliver solutions to our customers that again, now Nucor has an incredibly wide and diverse portfolio this year on the website or looking at that slide deck. Today, Nucor produces and supplies into that typical warehouse structure. About 90% of the steel intensity needs are already being met. But you also have to keep in mind, and I'm not going to detail out what individualized percentage of the overall portfolio. But the warehouse piece for us is only a small piece of the overall mix when you think about insulated metal panels racking the joist and deck, the buildings, the towers and the entire portfolio of what Nucor brings to bear. Again, the overall matrix for Nucor and that revenue stream continues to look very robust. And so while you're seeing and you're right about the reduction in overall square footage, Nucor's earnings potential and you're seeing our volumes pretty stable. We think there's going to be a little bit of pressure as we get into Q3. But again, volumetrically, we have a very stable picture as we look out in the future. So again, I think it's going to be a strong year for Nucor in our total portfolio of our downstream products. But again, I'm not going to break out the individual revenues for each of those components.
Operator:
The next question comes from Cleve Rueckert of UBS. Please go ahead.
Cleve Rueckert:
I think a lot of it's been covered already. But Leon, I wanted to follow up on Timna's question and just curious to understand what, in your opinion, needs to happen for you to generate returns comparable to the best manufacturing companies in the world. I mean is this really about vertical integration, or is there an opportunity to get there within your current business mix? And I'm just kind of curious what direction you are trying to --..
Leon Topalian:
Fair question. And again, as you think about that as a backdrop, it really goes back to our launch in my time on taking over as CEO, where we rolled out our mission statement to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. So the expand beyond piece was really the lens in which we're looking on, how do we continue to generate long-term growth and long-term earnings power for our shareholders. Part of that analysis and strategy has come back and embedded in the expand beyond that we are looking for businesses that generate more consistent through-cycle earnings profiles than the traditional cyclicality of the steel business. So at the heart of what we do well, we're an excellent industrial manufacturer. So part of that overall analysis and backdrop is, well, if you want to be comparative against the industrial manufacturers, we've got to bring our cyclicality of earnings closer together. We've got to provide a more stable return performance and profile to our shareholders. And so that's really where the entirety of our time and spend and looking at expand beyond and what businesses we want to onboard that fit the long-term profile for Nucor that does just that, again, stabilizes that through cycle performance and again, generating higher highs and higher lows for our shareholders.
Cleve Rueckert:
Yes. I appreciate that. I remember you had a slide kind of comparing the -- I think it was HRC, margin versus the rebar margin in your Investor Day. So I guess, I'm just curious about whether you think you can achieve that margin stability in the steel industry? Or you need to kind of continue with the expand beyond strategy and --
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, fair enough. And so I think there's two things to think about there. One, we have seen substantive shifts in the industry. We've seen consolidation. We've seen rationalization, and we've seen a massive change in trade. If we go back 5 or 6 years ago in trade, for example and we have 50 cases that the industry had won against bad actors that were legally dumping or subsidizing steels. Today, that's over 120. So while the overcapacity situation in the world will never ever be gone or advocacy has got to remain vigilant, Secretary Raimondo or Katherine Tai - USTR understand that incredibly well and are very supportive of the industry as well as the manipulation that can occur. When you look at the consolidation or rationalization in our industry it has created some outcomes that are much more advantageous that are stabilizing those earnings. So I think with that, we're going to get a much more consistent outflow. You saw back in November when we had our earnings day, our projected through-cycle EBITDA with the online of West Virginia. It's about $6.7 billion so that's the through cycle. So we expect peaks to be much higher. And quite frankly, we don't expect the troughs that we saw pre-pandemic to occur for us. Additionally, though they expand beyond sort of shores that up. It embeds in that. And again, go back to CHI, we bought it at 13x today with the performance that it's generated, it's calculating now more like a 9.2x or 9.3x on that EBITDA value. So they continue to perform because there are synergies inside of Nucor that are going to grow that platform in that business segment. Again, so together, I think that creates a very compelling case for why we believe we're one of the best industrial manufacturers and certainly in the industry, while we ought to be -- have a compelling story to trade at a higher multiple.
Cleve Rueckert:
Got it. Thank you for all the detail. I appreciate that. And then just sort of one other follow-up on the demand side. We talked about it a little bit already, but you mentioned that the CHIPS Act is helping drive some rebar demand. On the infrastructure spending that's been very slow to develop, but it sounds like it's starting to kind of shift from planning to execution later this year. Where do you expect that to drive volumes within your portfolio? Is that again about rebar? I think in the past, we've talked about plate demand. Is it both -- do you see a skew one way or the other as that spending gets unlocked?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, look, fair question. I think you're going to see it across our portfolio as you're going to see in plate, you're going to see it in longs and bar beams, you're going to see in joist and deck, you're going to see it in racking. You're going to see it through the Nucor warehouse systems group and again, that build-out. So I think there's going to be a fair distribution across Nucor's portfolio that's going to see an increase. The other thing to keep in mind Nucor's overall volume, about 50% of that flows through the construction end markets in some form or fashion, and that's targeting right in line with that all three pieces of those legislative investments from our nation and passages. So the position Nucor sits in today across those spectrums are well suited to deliver those outcomes. But again, you're going to see that mix distributed fairly well across several of our product groups.
Operator:
The next question comes from Tristan Gresser of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
The first one is basically a follow-up on the rebar. It seems manufacturing investment is supporting rebar spread at the moment. And if I understand your comments earlier, we're still waiting for Infra to really kick in and that's the most rebar-intensive part, I believe. So my question is, is infra to flow through? Do you see any reason why rebar metal spreads should actually fall into H2, and also, how do you address the input risk? The orbs are clearly open. We've seen rebar imports picking up in recent months. If you could comment on that as well.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'll kick this off, Tristan, maybe ask John to make a few comments. But again, our longs businesses, in general, have been our most stable earnings performers over many, many years. And so as we look to the back half of the year, yes, there's some downward pressure. But again, the overall demand picture remains pretty robust. So we -- like you, I don't see this collapse in the second half of 2023 because, again, the underlying demand or backlog and again, having the breadth of exposure that we have knowing the customers the way we do. We again think 2023 will shape up to be another very strong year for Nucor again our customers. John, anything you want to add on that because I don't know that I fully understood the second part of your question, Tristan, but any comments on the opening question?
John Hollatz:
Yes. Tristan, ultimately, the market is going to demand margins on any products that we would produce, and we're going to monitor that closely to making sure that we're taking care of our customers. You had mentioned imports on rebar. Year-over-year, import volumes on rebar are down slightly. We've seen a reduction from Turkey. I think everyone's well aware of what's happening over there. You're seeing some increased volumes coming out of Algeria, Egypt and Mexico. But overall, year-over-year, it's actually down by comparison.
Tristan Gresser:
Okay. So that's really helpful. So the real pressure of late from imports. Okay. And my second question is pretty similar, is actually on plate. If you can discuss a little bit the demand outlook. I mean it seems you haven't seen also the impact from higher infrastructure spending, which I think can benefit a lot your plate business. But can you also discuss a little bit what you're expecting in terms of the ramp-up of offshore onshore wind in the U.S. and how could that carry you maybe in the back half of this year, but especially in years moving forward? And any type of pressure you are also seeing maybe on plate metal spread recent months in the near term? Thank you.
Al Behr:
Yes. Tristan, this is Al Behr. I'll speak a little bit to plate demand. When we just look at the general market. There are several areas of strength that we see carrying through the rest of the year. Ag and heavy equipment remain fairly strong. Onshore wind has picked up with the passage of the IRA and brought some clarity to opportunities there, service center buying has picked up versus a year ago. So those are all tailwinds to demand. And we think the plate market will continue to be fairly strong through the rest of this year. You asked about offshore wind. That's certainly a big opportunity for plate, and we watch that closely. The easiest way I can tell you is it takes about 250 tons of steel for every megawatt of offshore wind put in place. So you really have to come back to what you think is going to be built in any period of time offshore, and there's a wide spread in those estimates, but it takes about 250 tons per megawatt to execute that. We don't see that coming this year or even much into next year. But I think it's a huge opportunity for plate that as the years beyond that start to play out, there's a lot of tons that feature that math. Closing up real quickly on the other infrastructure parts and the spending you asked about. We do see that in plate. There is a lot of opportunity that creates in plate. We're starting to see that today with Bridge work, especially much more to come and it's just in its early stages, but that money on those opportunities are starting to present in the market.
Operator:
The next question comes from Martin Englert of Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Wanted to switch. There's been a lot of conversation about government spend and incentives, but about private sector and what's happening with manufacturing. What conversations are you having, if any, with customers that may be in the process of reshoring manufacturing or considering it in the future regarding their steel and metals needs when you think out several years ahead here?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll kick it off and let Dan Needham, our EVP over commercial, maybe give some broad context. But we're having a lot of those conversations and have actually for the last year, and year-and-a-half about what does that look like? Again, with all the negatives of COVID, one of the things that it did and I believe in this country is it showed our overdependence to foreign nations on many, many things, not just steel, but pharma and PPE and medical devices and the like. And so you're seeing that move come back and you mentioned the semiconductors, and I'll touch on that and turn it over to Dan. But when we were running short on semiconductors, it obviously has massive impacts through the automotive sector, but others as well in HVAC and other industries that are dependent on those. So with the CHIPS and Science Act, $55 billion piece of legislation passed that now put to date, 34 projects on the books to be built in the United States, totaling $374 billion of build-out, very steel-intensive type buildings. And some of those individuals are massive, $20 billion, $23 billion, $25 billion investments in single plants. So as we talk to those customers and the GCs and the architects and engineers, to partner with them. The size and scale of that reshoring effort is massive. It is not inconsequential. It is a significant overall volume of the ADC. But Dan, maybe just provide it as well another backdrop as we think about our customer interactions with infrastructure and IRA.
Dan Needham:
Sure. Appreciate the question, Martin. If you think about the breadth of our capabilities today that we've talked about throughout this call, our ability to go into customers now today and give them opportunities or solutions around how we can help them with this reshoring is unbelievable. And that's what we're doing every day today. Taking advantage of that, having those conversations, leveraging our groups, what we call solutions, particularly construction solutions where we have technical capabilities. We have the breadth of our capabilities throughout Nucor to go in and provide solutions in a lot of ways, turnkey solutions to what they need going forward. So we're having many of those conversations today, and that's our focus as we go forward.
Martin Englert:
Okay. And looking past the build-out of these facilities. So just taking it a step or two forward, I guess, if a semiconductor plant is built in producing, it's probably not moving the needle for steel and metals demand. I guess I'm curious maybe next step, what you're seeing as far as like steel and metals intensive consuming industries like after the build-out or if you're having customers that are talking to you about needs there, hey, we're sharing whatever type of manufacturing facility that's going to be consuming more steel and what you're hearing there anecdotally.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Martin, look, I think anecdotally, you're right, a single individual plant may not move the needle for Nucor a 30 million tons a year of capability and capacity. However, if you look at the aggregate, if you look at the next 10 years, which is really the cycle these legislative bills are built up on or you're talking about somewhere between 6 million and 8 million tons of steel demand annually for 10 years. Well, that's 7% or 8% of our overall ADC in this nation. And so it's not going to spike the United States as an industry to move from 105 million or 110 million tons of steel consumed to 180 or 190 but it's a strong indication of a long-term trend that's going to be here. But the other pieces of that, and I think at the heart of your question are -- and what are those regions that Nucor is positioning itself to offer? Well, one of those, for example, is towers and structures. That is a massive growing industry. We've announced our small acquisition with some in industries we're very excited about. We just announced our two greenfield plants that are going to be built to continue to ramp that business up and growing it because every one of those transmission lines, every one of those towers and structures are individually designed by the utility themselves. So again, with our breadth of exposure and engineering and pipeline, we marry up really, really well to serve that industry and that market again for a long period of time. So while the individual plan, you're right, may not move the needle. You're also talking about a decade worth of work. So this is not short-term in the legislative side, but the other investment piece that you're seeing at Nucor is to identify those megatrends that will be growth platforms, again, for many, many years to come that are outside of those legislative windows as well. Automotive being another one, energy and renewables out touched on the plate. We are the only producer in the Western Hemisphere that can make the monopiles for the offshore wind, what position [indiscernible] Brandenburg for the long term build-out of the renewable sector in this nation. So there are many of those industries that we're coupling and again, building capability sets today because that's where we know the industry is moving.
Steve Laxton:
Martin, I'd just add one thing to what Leon said, anytime you see manufacturing growth, there's a multiplier effect in the economy, and there's a rippling and cascading effect for years to come. So all the jobs to get created from those various investments create follow-on subsequent investments, things like schools, housing, non-risk construction group, and that typically shows up a number of years later has, like I said, a cascading sort of effect. So that CHIPS Act will promulgate an awful lot of value for new form in the steel industry over -- longer time.
Martin Englert:
That's a fair point. I appreciate you highlighting that. One quick follow-up. On the Colors & Structures business, if you look through the supply chain there, are there any other adjacent businesses that made sense to pair up with that, or there be synergies and potential scale and fits the framework that you previously detailed for the beyond strategy here? Or is it more so there's steel in the supply chain that's kind of fits with that and some engineering capabilities and then it's right to the customer and there's not something more vertical or horizontal that might pair up with it?
Leon Topalian:
Well, now we need to bring you in the executive strategy session we have. So the answer is yes to all of the above as Nucor and Chad Utermark leads our new markets and innovations team, the towers instructors team, the M&A team are all sitting down, identifying and doing exactly what you just shared. Where are the trends? Where are the supporting structures unintended to augment this business to continue to provide adjacencies where we believe there is value to be added. We're doing the same thing as you look at the slides on the warehouse buildings and structures where else can Nucor marry up. So as Dan Needham pointed out, we can walk in with a complete packaged solution for our customer set. We're doing the same thing in automotive. And you'll see in the coming months that we will release the same type of slide that does the cross section of the automobile. Where are we today? What are we targeting and where will we be in the next 3 to 5 years because our anticipation is that we're going to double our volumes into the automotive industry. West Virginia, for example, is targeting about roughly a third of their overall mix to be in automotive that from an individual plant standpoint would be the largest volume per capita into that sector. So again, we've got a lot of plans built into how we continue to grow this company and where we're going to position it for future growth.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. And I want to thank the Nucor team for delivering a great and safe first half of our year. Let's continue to make sure we take care of our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of the entire 31,000 Nucor team member family. Thank you to our customers as well and allowing us the privilege to serve you with each and every order. And finally, thank you to our shareholders for the trust that you've placed in us to be great stewards of the valuable shareholder capital that you've entrusted us with. Thanks for your interest in Nucor and have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good afternoon, and welcome to Nucor's First Quarter Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise and today's call is being recorded. After the speakers' prepared remarks, I will provide instructions for callers wishing to ask questions. I would now like to introduce Jack Sullivan, General Manager of Nucor Investor Relations. You may begin your call.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's first quarter 2023 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Noah Hanners over raw materials; John Hollatz, Bar Products and Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial Strategy; Rex Query, Sheet and Tubular Products; and Chad Utermark, New markets and Innovation. This morning, we posted our earnings release and an updated slide deck to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials, and we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I'd like to begin by thanking our 31,000 team members for delivering another strong quarter for our shareholders while continuing to deliver on our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of the entire Nucor family. We're coming off our fourth consecutive year setting new safety records and the team is off to a strong start again in 2023, ahead of last year's record performance through the first quarter. Turning to our financial results in the first quarter. Nucor generated EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion and net earnings of $1.1 billion, or $4.45 per diluted share. This strong performance was due in large part to the ongoing profitability of our steel products segments, along with increased volumes and margins at our steel mills segment compared to Q4. In our steel products segment, net earnings were down 10% from Q4 levels, but remained 42% ahead of the prior year quarter and significantly above historical averages. Shipments out of our steel mills rose 18%, taking utilization to approximately 80% during Q1 compared to 70% in the prior quarter. And finally, the performance of our raw materials segment improved in the first quarter due to higher volumes. Nucor has created significant long-term value over many years and cycles by executing on its strategy. And today, we continue to position the company for further value creation. We are advancing several large capital projects to drive continued earnings growth, market share gains and margin expansion in our core steelmaking businesses. In our sheet mill group, Nucor Steel Gallatin continues to ramp up production. We've invested in Gallatin mill to completely modernize its operations and more than double its capacity, and we're pleased with the progress the team has made to date. During the second quarter, we expect Gallatin will continue ramping up to its full run rate of 2.8 million tons and return to profitability. We remain confident Gallatin will be a strong contributor to Nucor's bottom line in the second half of 2023 and for many years to come. Shifting to West Virginia. Progress continues with our new sheet mill. The team has received all preconstruction state permits and is awaiting final federal permits, which we anticipate being finalized in the next few months. We expect to complete construction approximately two years after the receipt of all permits. And as previously announced, Nucor's Board of Directors approved an updated budget for the West Virginia project, which is now estimated at a net cost of $3.1 billion. Once completed, the new mill will have an annual capacity of 3 million tons per year and advanced capabilities that will enhance our ability to provide customers with high quality, low embodied carbon steel products, particularly for the demanding automotive and construction applications. Turning to our plate operations, the team at Nucor Brandenburg has had a productive quarter focused on continued commissioning of the mill and beginning shipments to customers. Throughout Q1, the team has made significant headway dialing in the rolling mill and caster as we bring online a mill with the broadest offering of plate products in the Western hemisphere. Every month, we continue increasing casting rates and the range of production capabilities. Over the balance of 2023 we expect the Brandenburg Mill will produce up to 500,000 tons of steel and turn profitable by year’s end. This game-changing plate mill gives us a unique capability and will play a pivoted role in building out our nation's infrastructure across multiple growth sectors. Moving to our Expand Beyond strategy, we're pleased with the success of our new platforms, especially the diversification and accelerated growth they bring to Nucor’s earning profile. As we've shared before, we look for efficient manufacturers of steel-related products when evaluating candidates to expand beyond our traditional steel making operations. The most attractive opportunities are those where we can create incremental value through operating synergies, supply chain efficiencies, and revenue enhancements. We also see companies whose values match Nucor’s, especially when it comes to taking care of their team. As part of our Expand Beyond strategy, Nucor established four new platforms helping to grow the size and diversity of our Steel Product segment. In the past three quarters in which we've owned these platforms, they have generated combined EBITDA of roughly $350 million or annualized EBITDA of approximately $465 million, which puts them on track to reach the $700 million through cycle annual EBITDA goal we described at our Investor Day in November. In the first quarter, steel products represented approximately 52% of our segment earnings mix. We plan to keep growing the earnings potential of our steel products segment over time through both organic growth and acquisitions. In fact, just last month, we announced the location of our first of two new production facilities for Nucor Towers and Structures, which will help meet the growing demands of our nation's transmission infrastructure. As we execute our Expand Beyond strategy, we are maintaining a selective and disciplined approach, seeking those that enhance our service offerings for customers and generate superior returns for our investors. Our competitive advantage lies not only in the breadth and quality of the products we produce, but in how we make them. As more customers look to reduce emissions across their supply chains the low embodied carbon and Nucor Steel is a real differentiator for us. Over the past few years, we've developed numerous supplier partnerships with the likes of General Motors and Trane. And this week we're adding to that with a supplier partnership with Johnson Controls. Nucor will recycle nearly all of the scrap from Johnson Controls facilities and repurpose it as low embodied carbon steel to be sold back to Johnson Controls for future use. This closed loop recycling partnership helps both companies pursue our decarbonization goals. In May, we will publish our updated sustainability report, which speaks to the commitment our teammates have in living our culture and protecting our environment. I encourage you to take the time to review it as it describes what makes Nucor so special. Things like our industry-leading safety record and the pride of our teammates have in working for Nucor. Being the largest recycler of any product in the Western Hemisphere allows us to make steel with a fraction of the carbon footprint compared to the global average. And the various ways we support and invest in our communities. This is what makes Nucor a world-class manufacturer as recognized by Fortune Magazine where we were ranked number one among steel companies for the second consecutive year as one of the world's most admired companies. Before turning it over to Steve, let me wrap up by sharing some perspectives on the U.S. economy. Despite the economic uncertainty, we see a constructive long-term outlook for Nucor and the broader U.S. steel industry. And when economic conditions do change, our highly variable cost structure and flexible operating model allows Nucor to toggle our production and efficiently match demand. Nucor has a track record of operating profitably through downturns and emerging from them even stronger. The long-term investments we make and our conservative capital structures are designed to withstand all economic cycles in this time is no different, but for now, the fundamentals driving non-residential construction and infrastructure projects appear to be quite healthy. Three pieces of legislation, the Infrastructure Investment Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, provide a combined $975 billion of funding or tax incentives, which will have a multiplier effect on the actual amount of capital deployed. Taken together, we believe that these three programs have the potential to generate up to 8 million tons of incremental steel demand per year over the balance of this decade. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, an estimated 5 million tons of steel is needed for every $100 billion in infrastructure spending. On top of that, we expect IRA will derive significant investment in clean energy, adding approximately 2 million to 3 million tons of annual steel demand for wind, solar, and transmission projects. There also have been more than 30 announced semiconductor plants or expansions in response to the CHIPS Act. These are massive steel intensive factories that take billions of dollars in years to build and Nucor’s unrivaled domestic production capabilities and low carbon footprint position us favorably to provide the steel for these projects. As I've said in the past, the green and digital economies are being built with steel and the steel that they get built with matters. The future looks bright for Nucor and we're excited to continue building on our company's long track record of driving profitable growth and delivering outstanding returns to our shareholders. With that, let me turn it over to Steve Laxton, who will share additional details about our Q1 performance and outlook for Q2. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon. Our net earnings of $4.45 per diluted share for the first quarter is the product of another strong performance by our team. In fact, with total earnings of just over $1.1 billion, our first quarter marks the eighth consecutive quarter where Nucor has exceeded $1 billion in earnings, a measure unattained prior to 2021, despite our long and profitable history as a company. These results highlight the advancement of our strategy and the growing earnings power of Nucor’s diversified portfolio and industry-leading capabilities. During the first quarter, steel mill earnings of $838 million represented a 62% increase in the prior quarter, driven predominantly by higher shipments. We also saw efficiency gains from Q1’s higher utilization rate, allowing us to achieve lower conversion cost. Improving cost for energy, alloys and consumables were also a factor. Shifting to our Steel Products segment, we again saw excellent quarterly performance with segment earnings of $971 million. While this is a slight moderation from the prior period, it remains a historically strong result. During the quarter, we realized attractive pricing from margins across many of our product lines. This performance is further evidence of the strong non-residential construction market commented on by Leon. Our Raw Materials segment produced earnings of $58 million for the quarter. We realized higher pricing in our recycling businesses and shipped higher volumes out of both DJJ scrap operations and our DRI facilities. You may recall DRI volumes in Q4 were lower than normal and large part due to planned maintenance activities. Our corporate eliminations expenses increased for the quarter in line with the outlook we shared during our fourth quarter earnings call in January. As a reminder, this segment includes several key activities including our teammate incentive compensation programs for all segments, interest expenses, selling, general and administrative expenses, and the elimination of intercompany profits. Included in this is the elimination of profits or losses on intersegment sales when one segment supplies product to another segment, but the final sale to an external customer has not yet been recognized. With roughly 20% of Nucor steel shipments going to downstream businesses and the vast majority of Nucor’s raw material shipments going to our Nucor steel segment. Our intercompany eliminations can increase or decrease meaningfully, particularly during periods of rapid price change. In addition to producing strong earnings in the first quarter, Nucor’s efficient manufacturing business model was on display again, generating cash from operations of $1.2 billion. This allowed the company to continue its long established and balanced approach toward capital allocation, investing $532 million in CapEx, while maintaining its commitment to making meaningful direct returns to shareholders. During the quarter, we repurchased 2.7 million shares valued at approximately $426 million and made dividend payments of $131 million for a total of $557 million returned directly to shareholders or 49% of our net earnings. Over the last three fiscal years, we’ve returned $7.6 billion to shareholders representing approximately half of the net earnings for the period. It’s worth noting our dividend payment in Q1 was Nucor’s 200th consecutive quarterly dividend. That’s a half a century of paying and raising our dividend and a long track record of creating shareholder returns that very few companies in any industry can point to. Nucor’s balance sheet continues to be a fundamental underpinning for Nucor’s capital allocation framework and an enabler of our value creating strategy. At quarter end, Nucor had more than $4.7 billion in cash and short-term investments, and our $1.75 billion revolving credit facility remains undrawn. Given the potential economic uncertainty, we’ve been intentional about fostering a resilient and flexible liquidity position. This position of strength gives us confidence. We can continue our balanced approach of executing Nucor’s growth strategy while also providing meaningful direct returns to shareholders. As we look ahead to the second quarter, we expect earnings from our steel mill segment to increase compared to the first quarter results on modestly higher shipments and improved margins with better results from our sheet business being the biggest driver. In our steel product segment, we expect performance will moderate slightly from the historically high earnings level of recent quarters. As the impact of lower pricing offsets the benefit we expect to see from seasonally higher volumes. Our raw material segment is expected to continue to improve on higher shipment volumes. Overall, we expect the second quarter consolidated earnings to be higher than the first quarter, and we remain optimistic that 2023 will be another strong year of earnings for Nucor. As Leon mentioned, federal support for infrastructure projects, clean energy investments and advanced manufacturing facilities will begin to impact demand in 2023. In addition, non-residential construction remains elevated and positive trends in both the automotive and energy sector will impact demand. In short, we believe medium and long-term fundamentals of our industry and key demand drivers remain relatively positive. This coupled with our strategy to grow our core and expand beyond position Nucor for strength well into the future. With that, we’d like to hear from you and answer any questions you might have. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Today’s first question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Emily Chieng:
Good afternoon, Leon, Steve and team. Thank you for taking my question. My first one is just around the state of the steel market outlooks as you see it. I guess could you help us provide some color around what level of confidence you have or what’s sort of the extent of your visibility around the outlook for steel demand in this current macro environment? And how that perhaps compares to other economic down cycles that we’ve seen in the past?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Emily, thanks for the question. I’ll kick it off. For the last three years, we have been focused on executing on our mission, which is to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture, ultimately generating higher highs and higher lows and providing a capability set to our customers that provides them a differentiated value proposition. And so while there’s an awful lot of talk about looming recessions and headwinds we’re facing and whatnot, I just tell you that the objective measures as we look into Q2, we think Q2 is going to be a stronger quarter. If we look at our backlogs, our steel segment backlogs, Emily have increased 30% from the lows in the fourth quarter of last year. The demand picture as we think about automotive approaching 15 million units in 2023 remains really bright. And then some of the other things that I mentioned the opening script like the IRA and CHIPS Act and the Infrastructure Bill are already having meaningful impacts in our business segments today. But if we just take and unpacked just for a second the CHIPS Act, a $55 billion act signed into law, that $55 billion investment has spurred 34 projects that are on the books today. Those 34 projects represent $374 billion of semiconductor factories that are going to be built in the United States. And as our customers continue to shift to higher demands in what they’re looking for and what were in body carbon, it sets up incredibly well for Nucor as the most diversified product offering everywhere to help them build those facilities. Then the full cycle of that is, as they build those facilities, they’re going to provide the chips to our end use Tier 1 automotive customers, our HVAC customers and our heavy equipment customers that are all waiting for those and we’re ready to grow at that demand. So again, we look forward to, and I think the brightest days for Nucor are still in front of us. And yes, that’s really where I would point to. And again, non-res construction continues to be incredibly resilient and we think strong going forward.
Emily Chieng:
Great, that’s really helpful, Leon. And a follow-up, if I may, around non-resi construction demand there, you’ve certainly positioned yourself quite well with the cash flow business, the warehouse racking piece there, but as you think about the mix shift in projects within this segment. Where are you seeing a lot of pent up demand for certain non-resi construction product types and what are the projects that you are seeing Nucor specifically benefit the most from?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I appreciate that question and we are excited. We’re incredibly excited about the expand beyond piece of our businesses, the warehouse systems, the racking, the CHI Overhead Doors, and what those teams have been able to already generate in their earnings power and we’re just getting warmed up. I’m going to ask Chad Utermark, who’s over that product group and as well as the new markets and innovation teams to give you some more flavor. But I would just remind you all that, hey, that’s a segment in the construction and non-res. It represents over half of Nucor’s overall mix. It’s a market we know incredibly well, a customer base that we’ve had for going on six decades now, and one that we continue to partner with to provide a differentiated value proposition. Our investment strategies were two-thirds of the way through a $14 billion capital campaign that’s going to double Nucor’s earnings powers from pre-pandemic levels. So Chad, why don’t you provide Emily just a little more detail in what we’re seeing in the non-res sector and some of the optimism we have.
Chad Utermark:
Yes, thank you, Leon, and hello, Emily. Thank you for the question. As Leon stated, we are very excited about the demand picture that we see in non-res. I would categorize it as healthy and resilient as we move into Q2 and Q3. Some datasets I’d like to give you would be when you look at our backlogs, most of our downstream construction product backlogs are still at historically strong levels. As an example, two of our largest businesses that serve the non-res business they’re combined backlogs are 56% higher than their average during the time period of 2017 and 2019. So you can see the health of these backlogs as we go through the year. We’re not seeing a lot of cancellations at this time as well. So we feel strong about our backlog. Dodge Construction forecast, the recent numbers are positive both in dollars and square footage when you look at the non-res space. And again, it’s obvious that the activity have come off the 2022 peaks, but they really remain above pre-pandemic levels. And what dataset I was looking at the 2023 Dodge projected non-res building starts when you look at square footage, it’s up 15% compared to that 2017, 2019 average, which was some good years. So we feel really good about what we’re seeing and then we always base these datasets compared to what we’re hearing from our customers. And our customer feedback is still positive in the non-res space. Part of your question was about new markets or new channels, and we all know that warehouse obviously was extremely strong in 2021 and 2022, and it is come off those peaks and it’s level setting and find recalibrating and finding its place. But I would remind you that even with that level setting, it’s still forecasted the warehouse space to exceed the 2018 and 2019 demand levels for warehouses, which was historic prior to COVID. So one of those areas that Leon touched on that I want to just mention would be the excitement we have around the onshoring of manufacturing. It’s strong and it keeps pushing forward. Projects such as the semiconductor chip plants, data centers, EV facilities, both the assembly facilities as well as the battery plants. They’re in our backlog and we’re quoting even more of them. Again, I’ll say it, the manufacturing sector is very strong, and let me share this dataset with the construction spending in this segment alone has nearly tripled since 2018 and 2019 levels. We’re talking about close to $100 billion of spin projected in this segment alone. So while warehouse has come off its level setting, we’re really excited about the manufacturing sector.
Emily Chieng:
Fantastic. That’s very helpful.
Operator:
Thank you, Emily. Ladies and gentlemen, our next question comes from Lawson Winder with BofA Securities. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder:
Hello gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for your presentation and congratulations on a great quarter. Wanted to ask about again, about the ramp up of Brandenburg, the cadence you see there in terms of the quarterly ramp. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks, Lawson. I’ll let Al Behr kind of give you some details and then back row on our Brandenburg ramp up. Al?
Al Behr:
Yes, Lawson, thanks for the question. The Brandenburg ramp up continues to go really well. We shared there in the slide deck a couple of milestones again, that the strategy has always been about capabilities and not capacity. And so we continue to develop and explore the capabilities of this terrific machine. And we’ve rolled plate that is over 6 inches thick, which is a new milestone for us. We’ve rolled finished plate out of ingots, which is a significant milestone. We’re producing our own slabs now out of the caster, and this is one of the most capable casters, the most capable in the Western hemisphere. And so the wrap up is just going the way we’d like to see it. We still feel good about our commitment about 50 – excuse me, 500,000 tons by the end of the year. Obviously that’s heavily weighted into the back end of the year because we’re focused on capabilities. But we’re excited about what this project is going to offer our customers and ready to serve them.
Lawson Winder:
Okay. That’s fantastic. And then if I could follow-up just up on the plate market and get your views and get an idea for what you’re seeing in terms of tightness in the market looking out to Q3 and into the end of the year.
Al Behr:
Yes. Gosh, you start talking end of the year, you’re beyond my crystal ball, but I’ll share some thoughts of what we see now. And it is a fairly tight market. Demand is pretty good for plate. Our backlogs are up 100% year-over-year, even more than that quarter-over-quarter. So we issued a price increase. We published our prices and plate. As you probably are aware, we published an increase last night of $40 a ton. Inventories are low. There’s not a lot of slack in the supply chain. So we see continued strength in the plate market. It remains one of our more resilient markets. And I would highlight within that things like railcar manufacturing, non-res, bridge work as a result of some of the legislative successes that Leon’s highlighted. So, overall we’re pretty positive.
Lawson Winder:
Okay. Fantastic. Thank you very much.
Al Behr:
Thanks, Lawson.
Operator:
And my next question today comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos De Alba:
Yes. Thank you very much, gentlemen. So question is given the positive comments that you have on non-resi and all the term that you mentioned, how can we reconcile the year-on-year growth in your bars and structural the steel mill shipments, they declined 3% in the bars, as you know, and 60% structural. So I don’t know if you could provide some color to help us understand these numbers. And then maybe a follow-up on this – on Slide 8 of your presentation, the Dutch construction forecast is very clear that infrastructure continues to increase in the coming years. There is a little bit of plateau or flatness in non-resi and then it increases. But that is in terms of dollars, there is a line there in that chart that is non-residential building starts in 1 million of square feet. And that is – that comes down from 2023 to 2024, and then it increases from 2024 to 2027, but it’s only a gradual moderating increase. What drives your shipments? Is it more the dollar amount or the square footage of the projects that are put in place?
Leon Topalian:
Carlos, it’s a bunch of questions. I’ll kick it off and maybe ask John Hollatz or Chad or Steve to jump in. I want to step back though to the broader sort of global environment. As you think about rebar and bar and longs, I want to begin with the humanitarian crisis in Turkey and the travesty that has befallen that nation. Obviously with zero imports coming out of Turkey in the last couple of months, they’re consuming a lot of that. Our long product businesses, in general, have provided incredible returns through a very, very long cycle for Nucor that remaining incredibly robust. And so as we think about, again, Q2 we’re positive. We look forward to again, a stronger quarter in the second quarter. As you mentioned, the structural side of things as well, maybe just very quickly touch on what you’re seeing in the project of the coming months in the structural side, John, why don’t you finish up on the long products?
Al Behr:
Yes, some structural things. I would say the structural market is not as strong as the plate market. It remains resilient, and we see some activities in nonres construction, but it’s not as strong as what we’re seeing in some other products. But the strength is resurging in these areas of reshoring of manufacturing in the chips plants; those are areas where we’re particularly strong, both on the mill side and the downstream product side. So, I may have missed your specific question about reconciling shipments. All I’m giving you some color that’s helpful. But John, anything else on the bar side that you can share?
John Hollatz:
Yes. I would say I think part of your question, Carlos, is what drives the steel intensity or the overall demand for steel. It’s more going to be on square footage than dollars. Obviously, there’s some inflationary impact on the dollar side. What we’re seeing with these chip facilities as they are very steel intense because of the enormous foundations that go into facilities like this, which gives us a lot of optimism that demand is going to remain strong, not just through 2023, but for the life cycle of this government spending. So, we see a lot of resilience in the market moving forward.
Carlos De Alba:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon, Leon and Steve.
Leon Topalian:
Hey, Curt.
Curt Woodworth:
Just want to get your thoughts on the sheet market, right? So if we look at the second half of last year, the economy is still reasonably strong. Nonres was doing well, auto admittedly weaker and the pricing average around $750 a ton more or less, and here we are today, the pricing is $1,200, and arguably, maybe there’s a little bit more supply from some of the new EAF mills in the market, the lead times are out, and I’m not sure that the real economy is that much stronger today than it would have been back half of last year. So, I’m just curious how – what would you explain kind of the – how would you characterize the move in the market this year, if you could kind of parse out some of the key moving pieces? And then the second question just pertains to the steel products division. That business is, I think, is a little bit more complicated for investors to parse out. So could you kind of maybe for size at the joist and deck business versus your rebar fab business – and then within the context of IRA, semiconductors, infrastructure, where do you really play in some of those markets? Is some of that more joist and deck specific versus pure rebar fab or other areas, obviously, like towers for energy infrastructure? Thank you guys.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Curt, I’ll kick this off and again a bunch of different questions in there, and we’ll try to make sure we cover them all if we don’t just ask again. But let me begin with the tail end of your question. As we think about the IRA, the Chips Act and infrastructure, in the macro, we see about – is upwards of about 8 million tons of annualized capacity for the next 10 years. So if you think about 8 million tons, that’s roughly 7% of the overall ADC [ph] of this country. It is not an inconsequential number. And so well, how does that flow through? And how does that break down in the steel intensity within those three. Well, number one, it marries up incredibly well to the most diversified steel industry leader in Nucor. It matches up really well with the lowest in body carbon footprint of any steelmaker in the world that our customers are demanding these days, but it’s coming in the form of plate, structural longs, rebar, sheet, joist and deck, fasteners, buildings, warehouse systems, racking, it really is the breadth of our portfolio that is on display today. So it’s touching every segment of Nucor’s businesses. And again, with what Chad described, and again, we – we’ve worked really hard commercially in Dan Needham’s group with how we provide solutions and looking not to sell products, but how do we provide and partner with a customer to take care of their entire needs of that building envelope from the foundation all the way through to completion. As we’ve shifting a little bit to your question on sheet, and I’ll ask Rex to touch on this as well. But I would tell you in the macro, no, we do say Q1 showing more favorable demand in the back half of 2022. And so, there’s strength there. And again, ultimately drives that is our customers. It’s a supply and demand market. That’s why we’re seeing pricing go up and stick because the demand is up, the drivers are up. Our sheet business alone, Q over Q was up about 20%. Backlogs are up about 25% Q over Q. So there is real strength there. There’s – and there’s some optimism there and how we see that moving forward. So Rex maybe provide a little bit more of a picture within the sheet group and what you’re seeing through the back half of or the rest of 2023.
Rex Query:
Yes, Curt. Thanks for the question. Actually, I’ll step back for a moment. From a big picture standpoint, looking at 2022 as you recall, with Russia’s invasion Ukraine and some uncertainty going on, you have things going on in the marketplace where customers began, I’d say placing orders in accumulating some inventory due to that uncertainty. So with uncertainty in the pipeline supply chain from that standpoint. So you saw the back half of 2022 where some of that was being worked through. So we saw some softness occurring as people working through inventory. So then you didn’t see the – I’m going to say the demand pulled through on the production side. They were working through some inventory. So we saw that softness. But – and I would say overall uncertainty from an economy standpoint. But now as we’ve entered 2023, I would tell you, we see a much more stable market. We see more confidence in the marketplace and underlying demand, and we’ve seen that on the sheet side. So you’ve now seen stabilizing in some pricing at a higher level. And we see that demand stabilizing our backlogs at this point are on par with where we were in the – at the end of first quarter in 2022. So we see that strength and as we move forward Q2 and even in the Q3, we see that continuing and more confidence in the underlying demand. Hopefully that’s helpful.
Curt Woodworth:
Thanks, Rex. I think on joist and deck…
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hey, Curt. This is Steve. Just real quickly on your second question there about joist and deck and rebar fab. To give you a sense for size, joist and deck is typically about 25% of our products group’s volume. It’s a little bit higher than that in the first quarter. It’s around 27%. And rebar fab is in that same ballpark, usually a little bit under 25% of the volume we do on products. It’s in the low 20s right now. But those are typical for those businesses about what they represent for the products group.
Curt Woodworth:
Great. Thank you very much guys.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Curt.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question today comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. Hey, good afternoon, team. Why don’t to probe a little bit more the Gallatin ramp up, and I know in the past couple years you’ve talked about pulling back production if market conditions warranted. But it’s also been some talk of you’ve got this asset and you want to run it. So I’m just kind of wondering about the cadence of, first off, when does it run full out? And then would you expect it to continue to run at a pretty full clip once it started up? Thanks.
Rex Query:
Yes, Timna. This is Rex. Appreciate the question. I’ll go ahead and just pick that up. First I’ll just comment at Gallatin at this point. We’re now over 190 days without a recordable at that team in it. Going through this ramp up process, it’s just really been impressive to watch the focus there. And at this point, I would tell you for all intents and purposes, our commissioning is basically complete. We’ve had the opportunity. I would tell you, we have the luxury as a company, the breadth of capabilities we have at other plants to support the work that’s been done at Gallatin. We utilized that fully in supplying our customers from other plants or substrate into Gallatin where we utilized the pickle galv [ph] line, which has continued to run in a tremendous fashion. So we utilized that as a group and we approached it as a group. So we didn’t have to get tons through Gallatin for ton’s sake. And I think Al mentioned this about Brandenburg on a focus on capabilities. At this point, we’ve commissioned full capabilities at Gallatin. And so you’ll begin to see us now focusing on quality and ramp up of the tonnage subject to market conditions as we get into second quarter. I would tell you we expect to be at full run rate capability by the end of second quarter, and then we'll gauge that based on the market, but it's been a great ramp up. We've done it as a team, as a group excited, the new capabilities thicker slab that we have will be higher quality capabilities and we'll be able to get into markets that we have not previously been into, and of course, the wider width we have there at Gallatin.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, interesting. Thanks. My second question is obviously you have a huge position with service centers and they're an important counterparty for you. And our channel checks are suggesting that there are some challenges there as you can imagine with higher interest rates and also access to capital in light of banking market conditions. So just wondering if you have any observations about any impact on service center buying habits right now? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look in inventories, Timna, as you know and you're looking at the MSCI data, like we remain pretty flat, and so as you see particularly in cheap pricing coming through and the stability of that, it's a good indicator noting that we're not pulling orders forward from Q2 early because of those moves. So I would tell you while they remain at pretty flat and low numbers, look they're going to be cautious as well. Interest rates are having a big effect on them, but many of our end market customers as well are watching and evaluating projects and expansions based on what we're going to see from the Fed here next month and throughout the rest of the year. So it is touching obviously a big swath of our customers and like you we're watching all of those indicators and trying to analyze, how does that shape out. But we've been partners with our major service center customers for a long time. We're taking care of their needs and continue to do so well under the future.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks Timna.
Operator:
And our next question today comes from Tristan Gresser with BMP. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one in your comment you said that you're already seeing an impact on infrastructure manufacturing. I thought it would be more of a theme for the next quarter and maybe later in the year. So can you discuss a little bit timing? Have you seen things accelerate a bit? One of you competitor mentioned a very strong month of March on the non-res side. So yes, just some questions around the timing there and if you're seeing maybe those orders coming in faster than expected?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'm not sure. They're faster, Tristan. What I would tell you is it's nice to see them actually materialized and so through February, March are Plate businesses, our Rebar businesses. Again the long product businesses are seeing, the order activities increase, the quoting increase and actual orders and production increase so that's taking shape as we speak. But we expect that to ramp up in the back half of 2023 even further. And again, somewhere in that 5 million to 8 million tons annually of production increase throughout the next eight to 10 years as we build out all these major projects. So guys, I didn't miss anything there, anything you'd add?
Tristan Gresser:
Thank you. And maybe follow-up on that and thank you for the presentation, that's really helpful. The three poles of demand, you flagged the infrastructure, the clean energy and the manufacturing. Would you be able to break down for each of those three poles of demand, the split between let's say long, flat and plate? Is that something you could do?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, we can do that. I'm not sure we'll do it on the call, but Tristan, it's something we can have our IR team follow-up with you and then give you some more details. But again one of the things to keep in mind is we think about those three projects; the breadth of Nucor's capabilities set positions us incredibly well. It's going to touch every major product group that we have. And we're really excited about the expand beyond capabilities. When you think about the overhead door businesses, the racking business is combined with the joist and deck and the building systems group going to market together as one. We are providing a solution set no one in the industry has today. So we'll get you some, some more information here Jack can follow up with you in the coming days, but maybe provide a little bit more of that breakdown.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. Appreciated. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Tristan.
Operator:
And our final question today comes from Alex Hacking with Citi. Please go ahead.
Alex Hacking:
Hi, thanks. I just have a couple of quick follow-ups. Firstly, on joist and deck, the weakness there, is that just purely the slowdown we’ve seen in the warehousing build-out. And then secondly, on sheet, just to clarify there, I think, some of your comments, obviously, your sheet shipments are extremely strong. I think we’ve seen that across the industry. You mentioned that comparing it to 4Q. 4Q saw a lot of destocking. Is your view that the current level of sheet shipments is reflective of underlying demand? Or is there a restocking element that we closing those shipments? Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I’ll maybe kick it off and then Steve or Rex, I would tell you, no, I don’t think it’s restocking. If you look at the MSCI numbers are hovering around the two months on hand, which, again historically has been low. I don’t know and I don’t, we don’t anticipate these jumping to three or four anytime soon. I think that’s going to be a balanced approach for what Timna asked about interest rates and then again availability. So what I would tell you is, yes, you saw a large increase in our sheet group that is real demand. But does that – stack in that continue? Well, look, we think second quarter is going to be strong. But as we play out the rest of the year, we’ll have to sort of wait and see. But the increase within that – if you broke out that increase in shipments, some of that is the loss of imports. We’ve seen the imports drop off significantly Q-over-Q. And some of that is also establishing different partnerships with our commercial teams and how we’re going to market. We mentioned in my opening remarks, the relationships and partnerships we have with Train [ph] and General Motors and Johnson Controls. And there’s another 20 customers like that, that we’re partnering with different to provide them something unique and again, a very differentiated value proposition.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. I’ll just jump in on the nonres part of your question, Alex. As we mentioned, manufacturing is robust and I would say, get ready infrastructure is going to be coming to support where we’re going. But you asked about the drop off. And it really is, I believe, led by warehousing has dropped off significantly from these peaks. I would just remind everyone how high that peak went and where we’re at today compared to historical levels is still pretty healthy on the warehousing side. But that – your question was what drove the drop off, and I would say warehousing was the big market.
Alex Hacking:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Alex.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn it back over to the management team for any final remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Well, thank you. And in closing, I want to thank our Nucor team for their incredibly strong start to 2023 and your continued focus on our most important value to health, safety and well-being of our team. I want to thank our shareholders for your investment and your trust. We take that stewardship incredibly seriously. We appreciate the opportunity to serve you in our customer base. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. We thank you all for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to Nucor's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and today's call is being recorded. After the speaker's prepared remarks, I will provide instructions for those wanting to ask questions during the Q&A session. I would now like to introduce Jack Sullivan, General Manager of Nucor Investor Relations. You may now begin your call.
Jack Sullivan:
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's fourth quarter and year-end 2022 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, Chair, President and CEO; along with Steve Laxton, Executive Vice President and CFO. We also have other members of Nucor's executive team with us who may provide comments during the Q&A portion of the call. They include Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural products; Noah Hanners, responsible for Raw Materials; John Hollatz, Bar products and Fabrication; Doug Jellison, Corporate Strategy; Greg Murphy, Business Services, Sustainability and General Counsel; Dan Needham, Commercial Strategy; Rex Query, Sheet and Tubular Products; and Chad Utermark, New Products and Innovation. This morning, we posted our earnings release and an updated slide deck to the Nucor Investor Relations website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties outlined in our Safe Harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So, with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jack, and welcome, everyone. I would like to begin by highlighting some recent organizational changes. Earlier this month, Noah Hanners joined the executive team as EVP for Raw Materials. Noah is a West Point graduate with his Bachelors of Science in Mechanical Engineering and his MBA from UNC Chapel Hill. He also served our nation in the United States Army for nine-years. Noah began his career with Nucor in 2011 at Nucor Steel Darlington and has worked at several of our divisions, most recently serving as Vice President and General Manager of the David Joseph Company. Doug Jellison, previously EVP of Raw Materials, has accepted the newly created role of EVP for Strategy. Doug has been with Nucor for more than 30-years and has a great understanding of all of our business segments. As we continue to grow Nucor, Doug will continue to help ensure we are further leveraging our competitive advantages across the enterprise. Congratulations to both Noah and Doug. Now turning to our year-end review. I'm proud to announce that 2022 was the safest and most profitable year in Nucor's history, breaking prior record set in 2021. In the face of uncertain and at times volatile market conditions, we stayed focused on our goal of becoming the world's safest steel company and our mission to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. In terms of safety, we established another record low injury and illness rate for the fourth consecutive year. 20 Nucor divisions went the entire year without a single recordable injury, and we set new records across each of the four primary safety metrics that Nucor tracks. And we achieved all of this during a period of rapid growth welcoming over 2,000 new team members to the Nucor family throughout the year. I'm inspired by the way, each member of the Nucor team has embraced our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of all 31,000 team members who make up our family. Turning to financial performance. We earned $4.89 per share in the fourth quarter of '22 on a way to setting a new earnings record of $28.79 per share for the full-year. This represents a 24% increase over the annual EPS record we previously set in 2021. Our operations continue to generate strong cash flow with a record $11.6 billion of EBITDA. This allowed us to advance our strategy along several fronts, while also returning $3.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, consistent with our capital allocation strategy of returning at least 40% of earnings to Nucor shareholders. Our return on invested capital stands at a healthy 35%, and we closed out the year by announcing the 50th consecutive annual increase to our regular dividend following Nucor's original listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 1972. This places Nucor among an elite group of roughly 40 dividend kings referring to publicly traded companies that have consistently increased annual dividends to shareholders for over a half a century. These successes were in large part made possible through their hard work and dedication of the Nucor team who executed our strategy to achieve world-class performance. As most of you know, we share our profits with our team and in just a few weeks, we will reach a milestone never achieved before Nucor's history, delivering nearly $1 billion back to our teammates. In 2022, we made considerable progress along all of our strategic initiatives, deploying approximately $2 billion in CapEx and completing five acquisitions valued at approximately $3.6 billion, to grow our core and expand beyond. But we didn't just invest in new assets and business lines. We invested in a more sustainable future. We did this through new partnerships and capital commitments to our technologies that can help reduce our carbon footprint even further. In December, we announced an equity investment in Electra, a boulder-based start-up that has developed a process to produce carbon-free iron used in making steel. In November, Nucor became the first major industrial company in the world to join the United Nations' 24/7 carbon-free energy Global Compact which aims to accelerate the world's transition to clean, affordable and reliable electricity. Nucor also cofounded the Global Steel Climate Council in International Coalition advocating for a single, transparent global emission standard that is focused on steelmaking emissions and last week, the NRC officially certified new scales design to build a small modular reactor, the first of its kind approved for use in the United States. Nucor's minority investment in NuScale will continue to support the development of this technology with the goal of producing 100% of carbon-free electricity. Our mission to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture is delivering results for our company and our shareholders. In our steelmaking operations, we invested in new capabilities to produce more value-added products and improve operating efficiencies that can earn higher and more sustained margins. In our downstream operations, we continue to expand into new steel adjacent markets where we can offer differentiated solutions, including overhead doors and utility towers. These represent unique opportunities in faster-growing markets where Nucor can leverage its core competencies, supply chain efficiencies and market channels to create incremental value for shareholders. And we lived our culture. For over 50-years, Nucor's unique culture has created value for shareholders as it empowers and incentivize teammates to take ownership of decision-making, drive efficiency and pursue innovation. Let me provide an update on some of our larger initiatives to grow the core, starting with our Brandenburg Plate Mill. Nearly four-years after it was first announced, the Brandenburg team rolled their first steel plate on December 30. They are now focused on final commissioning of the mill and plan to begin customer shipments by the end of the quarter. Last week, we announced the Brandenburg mill would produce a new product called Elcyon, a sustainable heavy-gauge steel plate designed to meet the growing demands of the offshore wind industry. Congrats to the entire Nucor Brandenburg team for delivering one of the safest mill start-ups in Nucor's history and for completing it on time and on budget. Turning to our sheet operations. We announced plans to build a continuous galv line at California Steel Industries to serve construction markets in the Western United States. Recent closures of galvanizing capacity by other suppliers in the West presented Nucor a unique opportunity to better serve this region. This new galv line along with the line we completed at Nucor Gallatin in 2019 and future lines planned for Berkeley and Nucor West Virginia will position the company as a supplier of choice for the cleaner, value-added sheet products our customers are seeking in several key markets. Investments like this help forge even stronger relationships with our key customers, like Trane Technologies, which honored Nucor last week with their 2022 Supplier of the Year award. Now shifting to our Expand Beyond strategy. I would like to provide an update on a few of our recent acquisitions we have completed, beginning with our midyear purchase of C.H.I. overhead doors. When we announced this transaction and held a special investor call last May, we spoke about C.H.I.'s $230 million LTM EBITDA, it is 30% EBITDA margins and average annual revenue growth of 10%. In the last six-months following our June closing, C.H.I. generated record EBITDA of nearly 170 million, finishing the full-year with over 320 million of EBITDA and expanding margins. Within the first six-months of closing, we have taken our implied trailing EBITDA acquisition multiple down from 13 times to just over nine times. Going beyond the strong financial results, I want to commend the entire C.H.I. team for executing such a quick and seamless integration into Nucor. We are already seeing the benefits of our combined operations, including improvements to C.H.I.'s safety performance. Thank you. Thank you, team C.H.I. and all of the Nucor team members had have come together to make this an incredibly successful transition. And we are starting to realize supply chain synergies as well with C.H.I., developing plans to source most of its cheap bar and tube from Nucor divisions. The sales team at C.H.I. is collaborating with Nucor's regional commercial groups and cross-selling efforts have begun as C.H.I. grows its share of the commercial overhead door market. Last year, we also acquired Summit Utility Structures, producer of steel structures for the utility, telecommunications and transportation sectors. It is an area that we see considerable growth potential in. Then in December, we announced plans to construct two new state-of-the-art tower production plants. These highly automated facilities will help meet the growing need for utility infrastructure as our nation's electric transmission grid is modernized and hardened. Turning to the broader economic backdrop. We recognize there continues to be uncertainty, but we also see tailwinds that should benefit Nucor as well as the American steel industry throughout this decade, including the Infrastructures Act, the CHIPS Act and IRA that are all starting to work their way into the steel sector. These programs align perfectly with Nucor's unmatched and unrivaled product capabilities to meet the growing demand of our customers today and well into the future. With that, let me turn the call over to Steve Laxton, who will share more about our Q4 performance. Steve.
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon. As Leon mentioned, our earnings of $28.79 per share established a new record for the company. These results highlight the earnings power of Nucor's diversified portfolio and industry-leading capabilities. 2022 was also a noteworthy year for cash flows at Nucor. For the year, cash from operations exceeded $10 billion for the first time in our history, and free cash flow topped $8 billion. Over the past five-years, Nucor has generated $16.6 billion in free cash flow. During that same time period, we returned $9.7 billion directly to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and while at the same time, investing over $12.8 billion in our business through capital expenditures and acquisitions to further strengthen and grow our earnings base. These results demonstrate continued and consistent adherence to our balanced capital allocation framework. Nucor's efficient manufacturing business model is a powerful through-cycle cash flow generator. Turning to our financial results for the fourth quarter. Earnings for the Steel Mills segment were down nearly 60% from the prior quarter. Shipment volumes fell 13%, reflecting normal seasonal weaknesses and some purchasing hesitancy as prices were trending lower for much of the quarter. Overall, metal margins contracted as lower realized pricing outpaced lower cost for metallics. Conversion costs were slightly lower compared to the third quarter despite lower utilization rates, in part due to energy cost, which fell approximately 10% on a per ton basis. Alloys and consumable costs also trended slightly lower. Shifting to our Steel Products segment. We continue to see very strong performance with segment earnings of $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter. This is down about 10% from the third quarter's record results, but still represents the third best earnings quarter ever for this segment. Contributions from most product lines were down from their respective third quarter levels, reflecting normal seasonality. And C.H.I. overhead doors was a notable exception, as Leon touched on earlier, posting fourth quarter earnings 20% higher than the prior quarter. Turning to Raw Materials. This segment saw negative earnings for the quarter as DRI and scrap processing results were impacted by lower volumes and falling prices for much of the quarter. We also took both DRI facilities off-line for planned maintenance and elected to extend those outages for additional service until we saw signs of improving conditions later in the quarter. On the capital deployment front, Nucor's CapEx for the quarter totaled approximately $520 million, bringing total CapEx for the year just under $2 billion. We are forecasting CapEx in 2023 at $3 billion, including some catch-up spending originally slated for 2022, new growth initiatives and general maintenance. The earnings presentation we posted on our Investor Relations site this morning has additional details on our 2023 capital spending plan, including projected allocations among primary CapEx categories, and a preliminary look at the anticipated pace of spending on a few of our major growth projects over the next couple of years. I would like to take a minute and provide an update on the strong results we are already seeing from recently completed investments. While strong conditions in 2022, certainly aided performance, we believe these were prudent, timely and well executed investments that are yielding excellent returns and position the company for continued future success. The roughly $2.2 billion we invested in sheet and bar projects that have been up and running for the past few years, generated an estimated $620 million in EBITDA for 2022. In the businesses we acquired over the last two-years for around $4.5 billion, establishing four new downstream platforms generated EBITDA of nearly $500 million over the course of the year. We believe this puts us well on our way to reaching our annual run rate EBITDA goal of $700 million for our Expand Beyond businesses. Collectively, these strategic investments in those to come, provide significant earnings catalysts and position Nucor for sustained value creation long-term. Turning to our balance sheet. We finished the year in a very strong liquidity position with over $4.9 billion in cash and short-term investments, and our $1.7 billion revolving credit facility remains undrawn. We have been intentional about building liquidity toward the end of the year in light of uncertain economic conditions, coupled with near-term uses of cash, including our 2022 profit-sharing payouts that are earned by our teammates, our capital spending plans and maintaining our commitment to meaningful direct returns to shareholders. In addition to ample near-term liquidity, Nucor's balance sheet continues to be in a position of strength with total debt to capital of around 25% at the end of the year and debt to EBITDA well under one turn. Earlier this week, Fitch Ratings published its first credit rating on Nucor with long-term and short-term unsecured ratings of A- and F1, respectively. We were pleased to see Fitch recognize Nucor's credit strength. During the quarter, we repurchased 3.1 million shares valued at $403 million and made dividend payments of $130 million for a total of $533 million return directly to shareholders, which represents more than 42% of our quarterly net earnings. Over the last five-years, we have returned $9.7 billion to shareholders, representing approximately 52% of total net earnings for the period. As we look ahead to the first quarter of 2023, we expect earnings from our Steel Mills segment to increase compared to fourth quarter results on higher shipments, improved metal margins and expected higher realized prices. In our Steel Products segment, we expect lower earnings in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter due to seasonally lower volumes and lower pricing in some products. However, it is worth noting that earnings are expected to remain higher than the first quarter of 2022. Our Raw Materials segment earnings are expected to improve on more stable pricing and higher shipment volumes. While operating income from these three segments is expected to be higher compared to the fourth quarter, we expect consolidated earnings for the first quarter to be lower due to higher intercompany eliminations and the absence of onetime state tax benefits that were realized in the fourth quarter. We remain relatively optimistic 2023 will be another strong year of earnings for Nucor despite entering a period of increased economic uncertainty. Overall, non-residential construction spending continues to be robust, federal support for infrastructure and energy projects will begin to show impacts on demand in 2023. Other positive drivers of demand include re-shoring of manufacturing, energy infrastructure demand, clean energy and storage projects, EV factories and semiconductor plants. In closing, we believe medium and long-term fundamentals of our industry and key demand drivers remain relatively positive. This coupled with our growth initiatives and investments that advance our strategy to grow our core and expand beyond position Nucor for strength well into the future. With that, we would like to hear from you and answer any questions. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question here will come from Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder:
Good afternoon, Leon, Steve, the presentation. Also congratulations to Noah and Doug on the new roles. And also, I would just say nice work to whoever help create those slides, that looks great. So wanted to follow-up, Steve, on your last comments on market demand. Could you maybe provide a sense to the extent to which demand might be driven also by restocking versus some of these actual real demand drivers that you are highlighting? And then in terms of these real demand drivers, you highlighted nonres, electricity grid, which is moving the needle most for Nucor? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Lawson, I will start this off and ask Dan Needham, our EVP of commercial to jump in and paint some perspective around what we are seeing in terms of the traction we are getting from some of the programs that we discussed. But I want to begin with saying, hey, thank you for recognizing that. And thank you to the 31,000 team members who made a historic year for our company. Thank you to our customers who made all of that possible. I couldn't be more proud that our team executed its fourth consecutive safest year in our history, it is the most important value that we have at Nucor. And none of us and our executive team take that for granted and I look forward to 2023, setting a new safest year in our history. So as we unpack the first question that you began with or started in really understanding the demand trends real versus the restocking. Look, I think we have certainly hit the bottom as we think about distribution, and we are going to see that continue to restock as we move into the Q1 but that to me is not what is driving demand. If you actually look over the, let's say, the last eight or 10 weeks in the sheet group, for example, our bookings are up 45% to 50% during that time period. Our backlogs over the last -- I don't know, let's say, Q-over-Q have climbed about 16%. So that drive is there. That demand is there, that is pulling that. The other side is the nonres construction. Obviously, Nucor's channel in that market is over 50%. So, we are heavily invested in that. But there were so many incredibly positive signs. And while 2022 as a historic year, and we are slightly off in terms of order activity, we think it is going to be another very strong year that nonres construction will remain robust as we move forward. And there are several things that are going to drive that, that we will touch on here in just a second. And then really, the other piece is our plate strategy and long product strategy that continues to produce and perform incredibly well as we move through the back half of '22 into '23. But as we talk about the Infrastructure Act, the CHIPS Act, Inflation Reduction Act, automotive improvement for 2023, all others are going to have meaningful and tangible impacts to our business. Dan is going to touch on a second, the infrastructure bill. But I just want to put some context to the CHIPS act. It is a $55 billion package that Congress passed. What does that translate to? To about 27 different meaningful chip plants that are going to be produced some of which are pushing $20 billion on their own individual plants. Well, what does that actually translate -- what is that look like? That market segment, as we think about advanced manufacturing is requiring something different for its future. Our customers in that sector are requiring the most sustainable, comprehensive, differentiated value products and solutions that are available to the market. Nucor is incredibly well positioned to meet that growing demand in every category in every sector. So we feel very good as we enter 2023, that will be a strong year, maybe not as strong as 2022, but a continued strong year. But Dan, why don't you paint a little context around the Infrastructure Act and what we think we will see in 2023.
DanNeedham:
Okay. Appreciate the question, Lawson. In particular, what we are seeing forecasts out there from construction indices or are predicting infrastructure starts to increase 16% in 2023 and additionally, 10% in 2024. But more specific to that, we are seeing activity today on the infrastructure bill. In January, the Biden Administration announced $2.1 billion in funding for four major bridge projects. The most notable being the bridge over the Ohio River connecting Ohio and Kentucky on I-75 and I-71. You also asked a little bit, and Leon touched on the advanced manufacturing, but the other thing around the advanced manufacturing, the activity is increasing tremendously in that space, not only in chips, but also on the EV space and batteries. But those plants are quite large and the requirements from a grade and size standpoint, there is only a few suppliers that are capable of serving that and Nucor is well positioned to do that. If you think about the breadth of our products, our capabilities in the construction side from structural buildings to racking systems to now insulated metal panels and garage doors. Our capabilities are unparalleled. One thing you also mentioned was the inflation Reduction Act around energy. We are seeing activity grow in that space as well. And additionally, our breadth of capabilities fit that space very well additionally. And if you think about our leading low greenhouse gas intensity offerings, the requirements in that space, we are well poised to help the U.S. energy market move towards decarbonization. So the last point I would like to make is, in all of these, they are not mutually exclusive. They are all interconnected. And we have customers in these spaces in automotive and energy that have requirements on the construction side. And a couple of years ago, we created our focus on our solutions teams. And we have teams around construction, automotive and energy that are best poised to recognize these opportunities early in the design conceptual phase of these projects and work with the owners, developers, engineers to provide a valued solution for all involved, including Nucor.
Lawson Winder:
Thank you, Dan. Thank you, Leon. Fantastic color. Maybe just one follow-up for me. If you could comment perhaps on the ramp-ups at Gallatin Brandenburg through 2023, including your thoughts on profitability.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, absolutely. As we touched on in my opening comments on Brandenburg, we are incredibly proud of the team. The work that they have done, what they have been able to accomplish. And again, I have been at Nucor, a long time now in 26-years and from a construction standpoint, from a safety standpoint, from a budget standpoint, this project exemplifies the very best of what our team has done and produced. Al Behr will share a few more highlights of that because we have got some recent milestones that the team has reached here in just a moment. And turning to Gallatin, again, we are about six-months behind where we wanted to be on their ramp-up. However, over the last few months, that team has done a phenomenal job of bringing that new cash and equipment online. As I mentioned during the last call, this really wasn't just a brownfield. It was a complete mill modernization with software and automation tying that entire complex together. So it was a significant undertaking. And all that being said, the bottom line in Gallatin, in Q2, we expect them to be at full run rate capability. We will see how the market needs and demands go and meet that demand. But the other piece and point that I would share is we expect Gallatin to be profitable in the second quarter as well. So Al, maybe you want to touch on a few other things at Brandenburg.
Al Behr:
Yes, I would be happy to, Leon. Thanks, Lawson. We love talking about Brandenburg. Obviously, we are really excited about it. We are sitting here today exactly where we wanted to be. And like Leon said, I just congratulate not only the Brandenburg teammates that have just crushed it in building this project and bringing it in on time and on budget but also our Greater Plate Group teammates at Hertford at Longview at Tuscaloosa that have created an environment in which this mill is going to be excited. And as Leon alluded to, just yesterday, I'm happy to report that we made our first customer shipment out of Brandenburg. So we are on the board, and we are ready to go. In terms of the ramp-up and how we are thinking about 2023, I will share with you that we have got really three focus areas, Lawson, that we are going to think about. Number one is the teammates that we just talked about that they are the difference makers. They are a competitive advantage. You have seen what they have done on this job site and in the market and what they have created. We are going to continue to focus on them. but also that those are the men and women that take care of our customers, which is the second area of focus. So with our customers, we have got existing customers that have helped us get to this point with our plate business. But also new customers in new markets that are new areas for us to go and serve that we couldn't touch before. That if you remember back in 2019, the strategy around Brandenburg was to build the most broadly capable mill in the Western Hemisphere and put it in the biggest plate market in the U.S. That is what we have got. We have built the capability set and we intend to go use it. So with those two focuses, then at least the third one, which is driving incremental returns for the enterprise. We have had the support from teammates, customers and our shareholders to put this project on the ground and now we just going to be more excited to start driving returns with it, and we are excited about what 2023 will bring.
Lawson Winder:
Excellent. Thanks very much.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Phil Gibbs:
How do you guys see the global pig iron trade unfolding this year given the 25% reduction in 2022? Do you see supply chains having re-oriented at this point? Is there a reduced dependency on it given some of the new projects that have been announced by the blast furnace folks or others? Just what is the reconstruction in that market right now?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I will kick it off, Phil, and then ask Noah Hanners over raw materials to comment on that. But I just want to point out because Noah was in the Vice President role over DJJ at the time. And again, as we have mentioned a few times on this call, the day that the Russians invaded Ukraine was the last day, we took a -- any material from them. And so, it required Nucor to pivot incredibly quickly. Noah and the entire DJJ team stepped up. Our teams across Nucor stepped up because of the long tenured relationships that we have around the globe, because of the relationships that DJJ has built with partners and customers in South America, we were able to pivot, move very, very quickly and bringing new supply into Nucor. At the same time, our teams have also technically figured out how to reduce our use and move from roughly what was about 10% of our pig iron use across the sheet group down to 5% or 6%. So the overall tragedy that is still continuing to unfold in Ukraine, has created a silver lining for Nucor and how we think about raw materials, our positioning strategy and our overall use and consumption. But maybe Noah just paint a picture as we think about 2023 and how that is going to shape out.
Noah Hanners:
First of all, thanks for the question, Phil, and really for the opportunity to talk about our team and the performance through 2022 because I think it was really formative for how we think about employing raw materials going forward. So the short answer, I think, to your question about the balance of global pig iron supply is the Ukrainian -- the invasion of Ukraine was really impactful. It was roughly 50% of the supply that went off-line when Russia invaded. But more important to us, the strength of our raw material models and the flexibility we have. If you think about how we operate about one-third of our raw materials are self-sourced between the DRI plants and our recycling group assets. So you combine this with what is really unmatched coverage of the market through our DJJ brokerage team and the flexibility of our mills in terms of what they can melt to make our products for our customers, and we can be extremely agile. So we are able to, as Leon described, quickly change our melt mixes, maintain our focus on value and use while minimizing our cost and making the products our customers need. So again, if you look back to 2022, it is a testament to this flexibility. We prepared for the invasion to the best of our ability, we had indications that was coming. We were able to quickly pivot, adjust our melt mixes at the mills, minimize our pig iron and immediately cease purchasing from Russia. So I'm extremely proud of our team for the 2022 performance. They executed and I'm also confident in our flexibility and the strength that provides us going forward.
Phil Gibbs:
Thank you. And then in fabrication, you kind of gave us a range basically somewhere between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2022, given profit, should we essentially split the difference there or is it going to be closer to one versus the other? And then within that, how are Deck and Joist prices holding up relative to the second half, because I know that they were historically strong.
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Phil, this is Steve. Thanks for the question, and that is been an outstanding segment that has really driven fantastic results for the year. It is been one of the key catalysts. So while we do see some moderation from that group, it is still very strong. I'm not going to guide you leaning one way or the other necessarily from 2021 versus 2022 or something like that. But you are seeing some moderation there, but still outstanding performance from that group well above. You should expect well above historic norms for that group as we head into at least the first half of the year where we have some visibility.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks gents.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Leon and team, I hope you are well. So, I just want to drill down into the margin structure in the mill segment. If I look at 2021, your reported metal spread was about 720. And then if I look at the back half of 2022, it was about the same at 710. But your EBITDA per ton, at least based on my math, went from 410 to only 185. So that seems to imply a pretty big step up in conversion costs. And I know that there could be some Gallatin start-up and other issues. But is that math roughly correct and can you just talk to how you see conversion costs trending into the start of this year.
David Sumoski:
Curt, this is David Sumoski. Inflation has certainly been a factor for us in our convergence costs. It probably falls anywhere within $40 to $80, depending on the division. Couple of divisions would be higher than that, Gallatin being one of those, but those are outliers. So inflation has been a big factor. Two other big hitters we have to remember -- well, two other big hitters are as we bought C.H.I. and ramped it up this year, we run slabs through that facility and the cost of the slabs go right directly into our cost of goods sold. So we had some pretty expensive slabs on the ground. So that was a pretty big hit year-over-year for our cost of goods sold. And then across all of our divisions, we had significant inventory adjustments throughout the year. And the cost of those inventory adjustments goes right into our cost of goods sold as well. So those three factors were pretty big, were very big, and that is why you see that big increase.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. Okay. That is helpful. And then second question is, if I look at Slide 7 on the expand beyond, you are talking, I think, targeted EBITDA across those assets of roughly $700 million. And it seems like they are making good progress on C.H.I. to get to the $400 million number. But can you kind of help frame like roughly like where we are in that progression? And then when you look at, I guess, those business segments, can you talk about growth potential within those? Or how should we think about maybe how much capital you would look to allocate M&A-wise into expanding beyond the core this year, if you have any preliminary views? Thank you guys.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Curt, I will begin and let Steve sort of talk about the -- as we think about through cycle EBITDA. But I will touch on your second question first. As we continue to think about the growth of Nucor. We are coming off two historic years. And really, over the last several years, our strategy has not changed. Our mission and our vision is very clear that is to grow our company, period. And we are going to do it in two ways
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Curt, I will just add a couple of comments there to what Leon said in terms of where we are. With these particular platforms, there is not a significant amount of capital other than what we have announced on the towers business to achieve the $700 million target that we outlined for these businesses. So we are well along that path, very proud of the teams that are in these four platforms. The work they have done so far to integrate into [indiscernible] as Leon touched up in opening remarks has been very solid and I think they just underline what Nucor's business model really is. At our heart, we are a strong, diversified industrial manufacturing model. And we are able to leverage that model in businesses and across a broad spectrum of our portfolio to drive value. So if you are looking for how much money might be in new expand beyond platforms. As Leon said, we are a growth company and so we are not done yet, but these platforms that are established are well on their way to that $700 million figure.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to explore a little bit the outlook and then ask a question about volumes, and I think they are a bit tight. But just start with the outlook in the Steel Mills, in particular. You talked to improve profitability on higher volumes and improved margins, specifically in the sheet business. So, the higher volumes I get seasonally and off a pretty low base at 70% utilization. On the margin side, I mean, it looks like trending prices at 750 hot rolled and compared to Q4's average price of 960 looks like a tough comp. And costs have increased and there is deeper discounts on your quarterly context and monthly context. So I'm just trying to figure out if your guidance is more about the volume side or if I'm missing something on mix or costs?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I mean, Timna I'm not going to get into the contract-to-contract comparison. But again, all contracts are not created equal. They are not all on a calendar year that are not all one-year contracts, and there are different escalators built in accordingly. And so again, we feel really good about our strategy. And that strategy really comes back to the pre-announcement as we were getting ready to announce West Virginia to build the most diversified capability set, not capacity. And so, if you look at what the sheet group, in particular, is done this year, they have matched demand. They have matched the market in what was required and that flows through and you can look very quickly to see our EBITDA per ton and what we have been able to return back to our shareholders and our performance that I'm very proud of. If you think about our positioning as we move forward, we are going to match that. And my answer to the Gallatin question, that mill will have the capability to run at full steam come Q2, but we will be very mindful about how we bring those tons into the marketplace. So again, we are going to be very thoughtful about how we do that. Rex, anything you would like to touch on in terms of that customer and segment as we move into 2023.
Rex Query:
Yes, Timna thanks for the question. The only thing I would really add if you look at the volatility we had from what we saw in really the second half of 2022, but if you look at where CRU stood in third quarter and then the drop in the fourth quarter and now what we are seeing now, it is a really short window. And I think that is to Leon's point, we have a long-term strategy. And in the short-term, you may see us do things from quarter-to-quarter based on what the market is happening. We chose very specifically not to participate in some of the spot market as heavily as we saw some of the lower pricing. So you would see some lower volumes, but we are a margin-focused company, long-term, as a group, as a sheet group, our goal, our purpose is to generate a return for our shareholders on our investment. So that would be the only addition I would have.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. I was just trying to understand the margin guidance on the sheet side, in particular, if that was a pricing or cost driven, but I don't want to press you on contracts. I understand that sensitive. So I guess I will switch to the second one. If you have anything else on the cost side, that would be great. But on the utilization at 70% in the fourth quarter, and one of your peers earlier today counting above 85% utilization. Should we think about that ramping up given all the positive commentary on demand that you are explaining, Slide 17 and the ramp-up of, of course, Gallatin and Brandenburg. I mean, is it reasonable to expect that there should be a commensurate increase with the new capacity coming on or to more normal utilization levels?
Leon Topalian:
I think you are going to watch that unfold. And again, I'm not going to comment on what our competitor strategy or positioning is. However, obviously, one of our competitors has got a new mill and a lot of assets sitting on the books, and they are going to do whatever they are going to do and bringing that mill up. At the same time, we are going to focus on what Rex said, in providing a return to the margin that drives our business. And so we will meet the demand out there. We are not going to chase tons or pull forward demand that isn't real. But again, I think what we are seeing in the indicator is that the sheet group is seen over the last two-months are very favorable. And I think that will continue, and you will see the uptick subsequently in our utilization rates as we head into the back half of Q1 into Q2.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, thanks everyone.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos De Alba:
Thank you very much. Good afternoon, Leon and Steve. Leon, I have a couple of questions. One is on startup costs and the other is on Corporate and Eliminations segment or line in your reports. First, on the startup cost, as you complete some of the projects and you ramp up the play mill, how do you see the start-up costs coming out in 2023, given the big increase that we saw to $250 million in 2022 versus $130 million last year. Any clarity there would be great understanding that you are always a growing company but any color would be useful.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Carlos, and thank you for that comment. And that is where I would like to start where you ended. Nucor is very much a growth company and you do see different treatment of start-up costs from us versus some of our peers. Some of them like to make adjusted earnings, we don't view that as an adjustment. That is just part of what we do. We are a growth company. You are going to see that going forward from us, continued start-up costs, pre-operating start-up costs. It was $73 million in the last quarter. We expect it to be down just a little bit in the first quarter. And some of the variability as you start to model out the year, will have to do with spending and the pace at West Virginia. So you will have to just kind of stay tuned on that. But for the next quarter, you will see that come down slightly from the fourth quarter. Did that address your question adequately?
Carlos De Alba:
Yes, definitely. And then the other question is on Corporate and Elimination. The report was 77.1 million in the quarter. If I adjust back for the tax credit and the tax, the change in the valuation allowance. I think I calculate -- and I'm assuming that this is all on just the same figure pretax and after tax. I calculate that line would have been around $71 million negative -- $71.4 million negative, which will be a substantial improvement versus the $441 million reported in the third quarter and $617 million negative in the fourth quarter of 2021. So I wonder if you can comment a little bit about that delta, which is definitely helped the quarter. And I assume from your guidance that it is not going to be such as a positive tailwind in the first quarter of 2023.
Steve Laxton:
Yes, yes, very much so. The components that go into that segment, the corporate and Elims number, you have got several different things, administrative costs, you have got interest cost and in compensation-related costs, the largest of which is profit sharing, which as Leon said, we are thrilled that our team earned almost $1 billion in profit sharing this year which will get paid out in March. But the big swing from last quarter to this quarter was really the inventory valuations that occurred in our intercompany elims. That is why it swung to the positive credit that you see. So that is what we don't expect to have going forward. That is going to be the biggest change between Q4 and as we head into Q1. And there is really two components to that. If you start to look into your model in a little bit more detail. So, one part of that was the DRI losses we had, which, of course, wiped out any profits -- intercompany profits between DRI. And the other part is really around volumes. And that was more pronounced in our downstream steel product segment than it was anywhere else. We shipped a lot, Carlos, toward the end of the year, even more than we expected. So that is partly why you saw a little bit of increased free cash flow from working capital as well from that factor. And just to close the loop here between Dave Sumoski commented earlier, it is one of the drivers of why sometimes it is a little complicated to look at our costs when you are looking at a segment and you are trying to dial into steel mill cost. Part of those elim numbers are actually falling out of that segment number down into the total corporate elims number as well. So it does get a little fuzzy when you are trying to look at.
Carlos De Alba:
All right, excellent. Well thank you very much.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Tristan Gresser with BNP Pariba. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes, hi, thank you for taking my question. The first one on plate please. Can you explain a little bit the strategy, and it is kind of a question in three parts. The first one on the volume side, if I look at plate volumes for the year, they are around 1.5 million tons, usually around two million tons. So what is the target really with the new facility for 2023? And also, if you can talk a little bit about the mix, the target product mix and market mix for the new facility. The second kind of part of the question is more on prices. When you look at plate prices to explore, they are still really strong. Do you believe that the demand environment you are seeing is kind of warranting those elevated prices and now we are back to kind of a more normal kind of price/cost relationship or do you believe some normalization should still take place there? And finally, with those elevated prices domestically, how do you view the import risk. There has been a new trade case? How hard do you feel about that? Do you think the U.S. market is definitely well protected there.
Leon Topalian:
All right. I'm going to begin and then I will let Al talk more specifically, but I want to begin with telling you our prices in plate are not elevated. And I do look forward to them returning to normal levels closer to $2,000 a ton. And so being a little facetious with you, Tristan, but we don't think they are elevated at all. We think we are in a supply and demand environment. And in a commodity business, demand will always dictate pricing. And so that is the driver. And so, I would, again, tell you that they are not elevated. In terms of import risk, and you mentioned the trade case, actually all testified here not too long ago on that case, the ITC is found and upheld, the sunset review on those countries. And so, the protections that are in place today, not just on plate, but all of our products is so greatly enhanced from what we saw six, seven years ago. In 2015, for example, there was only about 50 or 55 trade cases that were won against countries found dumping or illegally subsidizing their steels. Today, that is closer to 150. And so regardless of administration, we have had great success in advocating for our industry and holding those countries accountable with countervailing duties or antidumping margins for bringing, again, not just plate, but sheet and rebar and other products into this country illegally. But Al, you want to touch on sort of that makes the strategy for Brandenburg, how we expect to ramp that up?
Al Behr:
Yes, it is a great question, Tristan. There is a lot to unpack there. I will talk through a few of it and then I may ask Caleb Strother, who is our Director of Commercial for Plate Structural Group to talk with a few more specifics. But to echo what Leon said, no, certainly not. We think plate prices are at a range where the market is bearing them, and they think they are fair and we don't see them as elevated at all. What we did with our order book or the way we bifurcated our order book through this year, we separated coil and cut-to-length plate from discrete plate. That was one thing we did. To make sure that the highly differentiated product like discrete plate that can only be made at the plate mill, collects the premium that is warranted versus some of the other products that can be more influenced by hot band pricing. And so that is been largely successful if you follow the pricing of both of those, and I know you do, you can see that we were able to decouple those too. So as we sit now, our order book, our mix on plate is about two-third discrete plate and about one-third coil or cut-to-length plate. And as Brandenburg comes up, Brandenburg's going to be mainly a discrete plate mill. It is got a [second] (ph) mill that can run coil plate. That will be a highly specialized plate, very value-added. We won't run a lot of coil plate out of Brandenburg, it is discrete plate. So it is going to move our mix to about 75% discrete. We see that obviously is a good thing. You asked about tons. I will give you a rough accounting of the times during ramp-up year and then ask Caleb to chime in on some of the markets. But we are expecting somewhere in the 10,000 to 20,000 ton range of shipments in Q1 so that is primarily a ramp-up quarter. Second quarter probably in the range of 100,000 tons and then somewhere in the 200,000-ton range in the second or excuse me, in the third and fourth quarter. So somewhere in the 500,000 to 600,000 tons. I think we would expect out of Brandenburg this year. Obviously, the market will dictate part of that, but we would expect to be at run rate capable of capacity by the end of the year. So, Caleb, maybe if you want to talk just a little bit about some of the market strategies and some of the areas we hope to penetrate with our broader capabilities.
Caleb Strother:
Sure. Thanks, Al, and thanks, Tristan, for the question. Brandenburg brings a whole diversified product mix that we haven't had with our plate group prior. When you are looking at plates up to 14 feet wide, 14 inches thick and 1,500 inches long, this helps support a lot of the initiatives that are going on the market. Dan touched on the IRA and the infrastructure package. Brandenburg is well suited in the middle of the country to help supply those customers with solutions that our plate group hasn't been able to offer in the past. Also with our announcement of Elcyon, you look at further investment in greening of the energy grid that is happening in our country, Brandenburg is well suited to supply the monopile plate that will be required our U.S. fabricators and as well as globally around the world for other fabricators.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. That is very helpful and just a quick follow-up. In terms of wind and renewable, how much of the percentage of demand or volumes could that be?
Leon Topalian:
The percent of the volume out of -- well, I would just tell you, energy, roughly around 10% of our overall mix is probably where we see it. That could ebb and flow a little bit depending on demand and timing, but that is roughly where we are at as a company.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. That is really helpful. And if I may, just another one, also kind of big picture, but moving from plate to rebar. Can you discuss a little bit what you are seeing on the market more kind of near term, but also more medium term as you ramp up your new micro mail? And also, what kind of the time line -- is summer 2024, the right kind of timing to think about this facility and the impact on the infrastructure bill, is it something you are looking at to kind of move meaningfully into Q3, Q4? Is that the right way to think about it?
John Hollatz:
Good afternoon, Tristan, this is John Hollatz. Thank you for the question. We feel our portfolio in long products is really going to benefit from what we see coming in 2023 related to the infrastructure bill, where the rebar market will grow by 1.5 million to 2 million tons per year. And we are planning on ramping up our mill in Kingman should ramp up about October of 2024, and Lexington in the middle of 2024. So, we feel like we are well positioned to take advantage of that market.
Leon Topalian:
The other thing I would add, John, and Tristan, just in closing that, the positioning of Lexington and the overall micromill strategy is to locate in the growing regions in the Atlantic post in that where Lexington, North Carolina sits is going to be very key in the growth of that sector in that market with proximity to the lowest price scrap and again, the customers that will be supplying that strategy, as John pointed out and has been incredibly important for Nucor. That will continue to help shape and again, provide the returns that we have seen in rebar and quite frankly, of our long products. The other piece is you asked about the Infrastructure Act. We will take meaningful shape, probably second, third, fourth quarter, certainly in the back half of the year. But as Dan mentioned earlier, make no mistake, the order activity, the quotes, the interest in the bar group, our products Vulcraft for decking it is already begun. So we are already seeing the pre bids and activity already starting. So again, that is not just wishing and hoping we are seeing that activity. We are seeing some of the approvals in the bridge and highway programs actually get funding now, and that will have a meaningful and substantive impact. We estimate in most of the outside groups estimate for every $100 billion in infrastructure, there is going to be about five million tons of steel that will flow through. And again, the product breadth and offering that Nucor has today puts us in an incredibly advantageous position to serve that growing market.
Tristan Gresser:
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. In closing, I just want to thank our team for a historic year in delivering the safest and most profitable year of Nucor's history. Thank you to our customers who enable our success. We appreciate the trust you place in Nucor with every order, and we will continue to work hard to earn your business. And finally, thank you to our shareholders. We take seriously the stewardship of the valuable shareholder capital that you entrust us with. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor’s latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC’s and Nucor’s websites. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. Joining the call today are other members of Nucor’s executive team, including Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Steve Laxton, Chief Financial Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; John Hollatz, responsible for Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fab; Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and our General Counsel; Dan Needham, responsible for our commercial strategy; Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for New Markets and Innovation. As our teammates continue to serve our customers and what we anticipate will be a record year for Nucor financially, we have not lost focus on our most important goal of becoming the world’s safest steel company. After two record-setting safety years in 2020 and 2021, we are on pace for the safest year in Nucor’s history in 2022. I want to acknowledge the progress demonstrated by all of our teammates as they continue to take care of our most important value. I’d also like to thank and give a shout out to our sheet and engineered bar teams for achieving world class safety performance so far this year and I want to encourage all of our team members to maintain their focus on safety so we can again achieve our most important goal that we have set for our company. Regarding our financial results in the third quarter, we posted earnings of $6.50 per share. And through the first 9 months of this year, we have earned $23.85 per diluted share, setting an all-time record for Nucor Corporation. Our earnings in the third quarter were down compared to the record high levels we achieved in the first two quarters of the year. And as we indicated in our guidance, earnings from our steel mill segments were lower in the third quarter due to metal margin contraction and reduced shipping volumes, particularly at our sheet and plate mills. Prices have decreased more rapidly than our raw material costs and we have also had planned outages at several of our mills. The ongoing war in Ukraine, dynamic changes in energy cost and shifting monetary policy have amplified economic uncertainty. Even with this uncertainty, we continue to see good demand here in the United States, particularly in our Steel Products segments, which had strong earnings again in the third quarter. Their performance was largely the result of continued robust demand from the non-res construction market. U.S. Census Bureau data reflects that the total domestic non-res construction spending hit a record in August at $79.4 billion. Steve Laxton is going to provide more details on the financial performance of our three business segments and the outlook for the final quarter of the year. Although increased economic uncertainty and lower pricing for many steel grades means it’s unlikely we will see more record highs for the rest of the year. We believe that the medium and long-term outlook for our business is quite positive. We continue to execute on our various capital investment projects so that we are well positioned to seize market opportunities as they evolve. Consistent reinvestment in our businesses has been the critical factor enabling value creation by our team over the years. The construction and startup of our Nucor Steel Brandenburg plate mill continues to progress incredibly well with respect to safety, budget and schedule. The Brandenburg team is delivering one of the safest construction projects in Nucor’s history. The Brandenburg team has already commissioned the electric arc furnace, the ladle metallurgical furnace and anticipates commissioning the vacuum tank degasser and caster in the next several weeks. Commissioning is also underway in the rolling mill area, positioning the team to produce its first plate products by year’s end. The startup this year will have our state-of-the-art mill ready to enter the market in 2023. We also announced that Brandenburg is publicly registered to pursue lead version 4 for building and design certification. In a continued trend of environmental leadership as a company, Nucor Steel Brandenburg is the first steel mill in the world to pursue certification under lead version 4, which is more stringent than previously rating systems. The new plate mill will play a key role in supplying sustainable steel to build our clean energy infrastructure. It will be one of very few mills worldwide and the only one in the Western Hemisphere capable of supplying the critical steel components required to build offshore wind farms. I’d like to congratulate our entire Nucor Brandenburg team. The ramp up at Nucor Steel Gallatin continues to progress, although we anticipated a full run-rate production by the end of this year, we now expect that this will occur in Q1 of 2023. The majority of our startup delays have centered around equipment sequencing and remembering that this upgrade was a complete modernization of the entire facility, including new automation software throughout the mill. This investment, combined with the galvanizing line we added in 2019, the addition of the recently purchased pickle line and the two-mill currently under construction, dramatically expands the breadth of market solutions our Gallatin mill can provide. Collectively, these efforts position Gallatin with a higher, more value-added product suite and will enable our team to generate higher profit margins as we move forward. We are proud of the work our team is doing to safely bring the Gallatin facility to its full production capability for our customers. The third quarter was also the first full quarter of operating CHI overhead doors since closing on the acquisition in June. We continue to work closely with the CHI team to integrate them into Nucor and we are already realizing supply chain efficiencies because of the acquisition. We are also working to capitalize on incremental sales opportunities now that CHI is part of Nucor. We are very excited about the growth potential of this new portion of our business and we are on track for a record 2022 and ahead of our acquisition model expectations. We also announced in the third quarter that we will be adding a melt shop at our Kingman, Arizona facility. The new $100 million melt shop will have the capacity to produce 600,000 tons annually and create approximately 140 new full-time jobs. Kingman is currently a rolling mill and we are leveraging that existing footprint and adding melt shop capacity there to efficiently meet the growing demand for rebar in the Western U.S. Lastly, at the end of the third quarter, we announced that the Nucor Board of Directors approved the construction of the galvanizing line at our Nucor Steel Berkeley sheet mill that is expected to begin operations in mid-2025 The Board also approved an additional galvanizing line to be constructed in the Western United States with details to be announced at a future date. The new Berkeley line will be our eighth wholly-owned galv line. These investments further advance our strategy of shifting our mix to higher margin value-added products and capitalizing on sustainability trends that are driving more growth opportunities for Nucor. Turning to Washington for a moment. During the third quarter, Congress passed the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, two pieces of legislation that will strengthen domestic manufacturing and create opportunities in the future for the American steel industry. The CHIPS Act promotes semiconductor manufacturing here at home, which is strengthening our supply chains and helping us unleash a manufacturing renaissance across the United States. The Inflation Reduction Act invests in the domestic manufacturing of clean technologies to reduce emissions. It also contains provisions that encourage the procurement of American-made steel products in clean energy infrastructure. Incentives to build our clean energy future with low emission steel produced by the U.S. industry give us a competitive advantage. And finally, as we have mentioned in previous calls, we expect to start seeing the impacts of new federal infrastructure spending in 2023 as states continue to move forward with their projects. With our expanded capabilities and sustainable steel products, we are well positioned to supply the broad array of solutions that are essential to these efforts. And we are confident that as we do so, our efficient and flexible business model and diversified product portfolio will enable us to deliver very attractive returns on our shareholders’ valuable capital. Before I turn it over to Steve, I want to thank our Nucor team for your incredible hard work and great performance through the first 9 months of this year. And as we navigate the volatility and certainty in the market, we must stay focused on working safely and operating reliably to take great care of our customers. Let’s finish this year having 2022 be the safest and most profitable year in Nucor’s history. Now, Steve Laxton will share with you additional details about our third quarter performance and our outlook through the end of the year. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thanks, Leon. This quarter’s earnings of $6.50 per diluted share represent the fifth best quarterly results ever posted by Nucor. Year-to-date earnings per share of $23.85 actually beats the record we established last year for a full year EPS of $23.16. And operating cash flow through the first 9 months of the year was approximately $7.5 billion, also setting the new annual record. The entire Nucor team should be very proud of these results. Comparing this quarter’s results to the prior quarter, our steel segment earnings were down about 55%. Shipment volumes were down about 9%, with sheet and plate volumes relatively weaker and long products more stable. Overall, metal margins contracted by approximately 11% as lower realized pricing for sheet, plate and bars more than offset reduced metallics cost. Conversion costs were higher due to lower utilization and higher energy cost. Energy cost per ton produced increased by 17% during the quarter and now constitute about $57 per ton. Some of these costs were offset by natural gas hedges we had in place as well as increased earnings from our producing gas wells in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. We continue to see very strong performance from our Steel Products segment. That segment’s earnings were up about 6% on last quarter’s record performance. Joist and deck results improved from the second quarter, while tubular products profits declined. Joist and deck volumes both increased slightly and pricing on orders shipped during the quarter also rose, while substrate costs declined. Pipe and tube shipments were down almost 16% and realized prices were off about 11%. Leon has already referenced the excellent results posted by CHI overhead doors. CHI is one of several moves the company has made recently to leverage our capabilities, products and channels in new businesses that have good margins, strong free cash flows and good growth attributes. We call these efforts to expand beyond. Other platforms in our expand beyond efforts include insulated metal panels and warehouse systems. During the quarter, these businesses produced $29 million and $28 million in EBITDA, respectively. While it’s early in the Nucor life of these three expand businesses, all three met or exceeded the targets for the third quarter in our acquisition model assumptions. I want to thank our teammates for the excellent work they are doing running and integrating these businesses. Raw materials segment earnings were up slightly from the second quarter, with higher profits from our DRI operations more than offsetting lower results from DJJ. Cash provided by operating activities during the quarter was $2.8 billion, while capital expenditures totaled approximately $460 million. Year-to-date capital expenditures totaled $1.43 billion. For the full year, we now expect capital expenditures to be approximately $2 billion. During the quarter, we repurchased 5.3 million shares and paid $132 million in dividends for a total capital return to shareholders of $784 million or 46% of net earnings. Total capital returns to shareholders through the first three quarters of the year via dividends and repurchases were approximately $2.75 billion or 44% of net earnings. During August, we also retired $600 million of senior notes that were set to mature in September. We had pre-funded this maturity and some other outstanding debt back in March of this year with opportunistic issuance of $1.1 billion in new senior notes split evenly between 10 and 30-year maturities. The coupon on the maturing notes was 4 1/8%. The blended coupon on the March issuance was 3.5%. And Nucor continues to enjoy excellent access to capital due to our position as a leading manufacturer across a broad array of steel products, our efficient and highly variable cost structure and our consistent commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet with good financial liquidity. Speaking of the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with a debt-to-capital ratio of 26% and ample liquidity with $3.5 billion of cash, short-term holdings and restricted cash holdings, and our $1.75 billion revolving credit facility was undrawn. Turning to the outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect our steel mills segment earnings to decline meaningfully relative to the third quarter. Fourth quarter shipments are projected to be lower compared to the third quarter, primarily due to seasonality, customers delaying orders due to economic uncertainty as well as some of the planned outages in our own fleet. We expect lower realized prices in the quarter for most of our mills due to some of the same factors. The most pronounced effects will be felt in our sheet business. Lower raw materials cost will partially offset some of these impacts. We expect lower but still very strong earnings from our Steel Products segment in the fourth quarter, primarily due to seasonality and softer demand. Raw material earnings will also decline sequentially, primarily on lower pricing and shipping volumes from DRI. Several factors are combining to create a more dollar economic outlook. The ongoing war in Europe, other geopolitical tensions and rapid monetary policy actions attempting to tame inflation likely mean tempered near-term demand and stronger U.S. dollar, both challenging elements for Nucor’s customer base. Service centers, in particular, are cautious at this time. While there are still headwinds in the economy, we also have tailwinds supporting our overall demand. Just a few of those factors include non-residential construction, particularly in warehousing and reshoring of manufacturing as well as energy and projects funded by the Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act, some of which should see commencement next year. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos De Alba:
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much. Just getting back on the volumes growth that you have experienced in the third quarter. It seems that on a year-on-year basis, most of the declines were in structured and plate lines on total shipments. But I’m talking anything that the long products and the non-recession construction market are the ones that are holding up a little bit better. So can you help us reconcile this similarly contractory trends? And how should we think about it in the coming months or quarters? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Carlos, I want to make sure I understand your question. Is it why the long products businesses are seeming to do a little bit more stable in the market than our flat products businesses?
Carlos De Alba:
Right. So that is what I understand in the commentary around the end markets. But in the shipments, in the total shipments that were reported, at least on a year-on-year basis, there was a significant decline in structural and plate volumes, total volumes, total shipments, and sheet only came down around 4%. So I wanted to understand these trends.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, absolutely. I’ll make a couple of comments. Maybe ask Al Behr, who’s in charge of our Plan Structural Group to make a few comments. But overall, long over many decades now have been our most consistent performers in the marketplace. Historically, again, pre sort of ‘21, ‘22 levels, for example, we were in the structural businesses in the low 70% utilization rates and made very, very good returns based on that level. Again, market leadership position helped that, but also the breadth of products that Nucor runs and producers to take care of that customer base also helps. We did see some meaningful declines in plate. And again, Al, maybe just touch on that, and then we will come back to structural.
Al Behr:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. Happy to do that. Thanks, Carlos, for the question. I’ll handle the structural question first. That’s more stable than some of the other markets like Leon has talked about. We see some decline. But – and first, any of the comps over last year are tough comps because last year, when we were at or near our record shipments in many product categories, including plate structure. So depending on whether you’re looking over quarters or looking over years, there is that perspective, I think, you’ve got to maintain. But on – so on the structural side, we see some softness from service centers. You heard that in the opening commentary. We see resilient demand, though, from fabricators, especially large fabricators that do complex work like chip plants, EV plants, battery plants. We’ve had more of a decline in plate. I think maybe that’s where you see more of the volume drop. Certainly, the same dynamic with service centers where they have been destocking through the year, and they continue to be very cautious buyers despite resilient demand from OEMs and fabricators. We’ve seen an increase in imports into that market as well, particularly in coil form and particularly from Canada and Mexico. So that’s a factor. And when we look at it, our strategy is to drive value and is to focus on the profitability of these markets and not just chase cheap tons. And so we’ve been very strategic about how we handle the business and how we go about loading our order book. As we look into Q4, I think we will see an improvement in shipments, particularly in plate due to project work. That’s buckets of tons that become available prior to transactional tons. So these are non-res contracts, their bridge work infrastructure. We’ve seen an uptick there and continue to see that into ‘23. And I’m happy to provide some comments about ‘23, but I hope I’m addressing your question about the decline at least year-over-year.
Carlos De Alba:
Yes. That was great, Al. And yes, if you could comment on what you’re seeing for 2022, that will be also great. Thank you.
Al Behr:
Yes. So all this to say, we recognize we’re headed into some economic uncertainty, but there is a lot of positive reasons for optimism that we see, particularly in – this is just plate structural. One is infrastructure spending. We’ve always said that infrastructure is going to be a 2023 and beyond play, and we continue to see that and hold that queue. Another is energy. Energy, and particularly renewables, have been very strong through the year. We continue to see that manifesting as well as a pickup in oil and gas we see in the 2023. And then key markets within non-res. So although there may be softness overall, the areas where we play in non-res, we’re very competitively advantaged. So these are the warehouses and the data centers, the chip plans, the manufacturing, reshoring, those areas where we are positioned best are the areas that show strength in non-res construction. I can’t talk about 2023 without talking about Brandenburg, and really what we’re most excited about is the opening of our Brandenburg plant. So we’re going to bring that online at the end of this year. We’re ready for an on-time startup. And we’re going to bring up the most broadly capable plate mill in the western hemisphere. And so that story, that strategy has always been about capability and not capacity, and we will be very strategic about how we bring those tons online, but we’re ideally suited to serve customers that we couldn’t serve before. We will have a product portfolio in plate that’s unmatched, and we’re anxious to put in place the strategies to drive value as we bring those assets online. That team has done a tremendous job of executing the project. Leon talked about that in the opening comments. There are a bunch of rock stars, if I can put it very plainly, and what they have come through from 2019 to today to bring a construction project online on budget and on schedule is a Herculean effort and couldn’t be more proud for those folks.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Al.
Carlos De Alba:
Yes. Thank you, Al and Leon.
Operator:
The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Hi, good afternoon, everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Timna.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to explore the contract side of your business, if we could, for a little bit. Just also following up with the Q4 sequential move, especially given how much contracted tons you have for sheet. Can you remind us of your percentage there? And how we balance the growth in Gallatin with the guidance for sheet? And then secondly, on the contract side, as we head into 2023, the commentary we’re hearing is that this will be a different year for negotiations, suffice to say after last year’s strong negotiating position with lower prices. Maybe seeing something on the CRU discount that’s a little steeper – just wondering if you could comment on how that might look year-over-year. Any thoughts on early negotiations? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Timna, I’ll start us off. And Rex, if there is anything I miss, please jump in. It’s too early to talk about our overall percentage of mix. We’re in the middle of our contract season. And historically, Nucor has been in that 70%, 75% range. Again, I’m not we see meaningfully different. But again, we’re not through that yet and can comment a little more clearly, as we enter the Q4 earnings call in January of next year. But one of the things that – and Al touched on it, it’s really a dichotomy of the markets that we sit today. We’re facing 40-year high inflation supply chain constraints. There were new crane that continues to provide some disruption, monetary policy that’s going to raise interest rates until we roughly double our current unemployment rate. So you’ve got all these negative sentiments in the marketplace. And at the same time, we’ve got some positive. We’ve got automotive, as you’re well aware, of forecasting an additional 1 million tons or 1 million units of new light vehicles coming into the United States in ‘23. Energy, as Al just mentioned, particularly in renewables. Infrastructure spending that’s going to begin to take off. And then the other side of that non-res construction that Nucor is heavily positioned to take care of in our customer base and advanced manufacturing like chips, battery plants cold storage. And so what I would share with you and give you a little more than ambiguous or generalized statements, as we look at the contracts, particularly with OEMs that have been placed so far this year for 2023 and beyond, the long-term play as we see it today in the contracts that have been established are forecasting up in volumes, about 15% for next year. So again, we see some encouraging signs is our order book and our customers’ customers are forecasting out beyond that. So again, some positive news, and again, against the backdrop that remains a little fuzzy as we walk into the new year.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Sorry. My question was more about contract pricing, but that’s helpful information for sure. I guess I’m just wondering if last year, the CRU discounts were 1%, 2%. This year, could we see something closer to 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%. Is there – anything you can tell us about how those discussions are going or if contacts will be a little more flexible this year after being really strict in 2022?
Rex Query:
Timna, this is Rex Query, I’ll comment some of it may overlap what Leon just stated. The comment he made about the success we’re having with partnering with our OEMs, what that’s resulting, what we’re seeing at this point is a willingness to sign up for multiyear contracts, and we’re seeing improved margins. So when you talk about what the discounting is, we look at our business from a margin business. It’s not a fixation on volume. We want to make sure that we offer the value that we have customers willing to pay for. And so what we’re seeing is improved margins in particular with the OEMs and multiyear contract sign-up at this point. I would also comment that we’re seeing the recognition of our varied product mix. Our iconic brand of products with the zero-carbon offerings, our sustainability, all that’s being recognized in particular at this point in the contract season with our OEMs.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. If I could sneak one more in, I just wanted to ask about the business on your raw material side. We have some reports of saying that you were taking the DRI modules offline in the fourth quarter. When you guided lower, can you just tell us if it might be comparable to the year ago levels or if we’re talking about something in between that and just the recent results? That would be really helpful. Thanks again.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Timna. I’ll ask Dave Sumoski to maybe provide a couple of comments on raw material sector in our outage plans.
Dave Sumoski:
Sure, action, and thanks, Tim, for the question. We moved two of our outages from Q2 to Q4 based on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and it’s going to result in about a 30% reduction in shipments this in the trough of transfer pricing based on the lower pig iron pricing, that’s what’s really driving the lower results from the raw materials group. There is some margin compression on the recycling side, but most it is going to come through the DRI facilities based on that 30% reduction in shipments and in production.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, I will leave it there. Thanks again.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Tristan Gresser:
Yes. Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. The first one, if I may, your commentary around demand and market conditions that are deteriorating into year-end. For which end market have you seen more weakness over recent weeks? And if you could give us maybe a brief update by end market, that would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, Tristan, I will jump in and begin. And if you have some other comments, please touch base. But as we look at some of the strengths, we pointed out some of the auto sector in ‘23. Again, it’s forecasting up about 1 million units for next year, the solar and wind, particularly offshore wind, as Al mentioned, the positioning and timeliness of Brandenburg couldn’t be more ideally suited. There is very few mills in the world that can provide that offshore wind sizing and platform of – in range of grades and so again, incredibly well positioned, excited about that opportunity. And again, you are seeing that match with the current administration’s continued efforts to ensure that the incentives are there for those build-outs to continue to occur. Within the non-res, again, there is some pressure, but there is also some pockets of excellence that we see continuing. Again, the CHIPS Act that was passed recently in Congress, that’s going to have a wonderful re-shoring impact to the United States and bringing chips supply right here domestically. The continuation and build-out of gigafactories and battery plants for the electric vehicles will continue. And again, we see great strength in that. Cold storage, pharma, all a couple of other areas in distribution and data centers, we see really, really strong growth. As we look at maybe some other sectors in heavy industry and heavy equipment and ag, that’s probably fair, but I am not sure it’s going to meaningfully increase for ‘23. And yes, really, that’s probably the best sectors. As we look at the markets that we track and supply into most for ‘23 are showing stable or improving, and so not a whole lot of decline overall in the markets.
Tristan Gresser:
Alright. Thank you. That’s really good color. My second question, if I may. I just wanted to know if you could provide us maybe an update on Econiq sales and the partnerships on low carbon steel and how this has evolved over recent months. And if you can share if you have any target for 2023 and if you have seen any appetite for those low carbon steel sales outside the U.S.? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, absolutely. I would tell you, I couldn’t be more excited about what our team has done from an environmental and in the commercial position to bring us to the point where we can offer Econiq steels. And so I would tell you the demand continues to increase. We obviously were very public as we went into 2022, the first coil shipped in January of this year to General Motors. However, after that, we have seen great interest from the auto OEMs, but also broader, we are seeing heavy manufacturing, seeing HVAC. We have had some very public announcements as well in the HVAC with Train about that partnership and their pledges to meet their sustainability goals and their long-term reduction in their carbon footprint only gets accelerated with a net incoming steel of zero. So, we are seeing great interest in that, and I think that will continue in the years to come. Our move in the U.S. economy to build out a green and digital economy will be built with steel, and the steel that gets built with matters. And again, we are offering the cleanest steels, the safest manufacturing and most efficient and diverse product offering anywhere in the Western hemisphere. So, again, to your question, Tristan, that move to cleaner steels and a near net zero steel is going to continue that trend in the coming years and beyond.
Tristan Gresser:
Any targets you can share at this stage or not yet?
Leon Topalian:
We haven’t released any targets in terms of our volume and what we are going to supply in Econiq. What we have targeted and been very public about is our 35% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2035 – 2030, excuse me. And so that would take us roughly from that 0.48 tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced is somewhere in that 0.42 range and so – excuse me, 0.38 range. And so again, we are making strides and investments every day to continue to stay very close to new technologies, carbon sequestration, hydrogen, reforming and the like, and that will continue meaningfully in the years to go so that, again, we can offer more and more of the net zero steels to our customer base.
Tristan Gresser:
Alright. Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks Tristan.
Operator:
The next question is from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Emily Chieng:
Good afternoon Leon and Steve. My first question is just around non-resi construction once more. When you think about the mix shift in non-resi construction that’s giving you confidence on the outlook there, how should we be thinking about this deal intensity of the new projects coming online versus maybe some of the pockets of weaknesses like warehousing, for instance, or is it really the pace and number of new projects being sanctioned right now that’s offsetting that – those weaker pockets that’s underpinning your positive outlook there?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Emily, look, I appreciate the question. And certainly, again, there is a lot to unpack, whether it’s in non-res or flats in the sheet business in terms of economic signals and then true demand. And so I have shared a couple of times on the call parts of that non-res story that we see strength. So, what I am going to do and maybe Chad Utermark is over our products group, just provide a little more detail and background and what you are seeing in terms of that customer-to-customer input and what we are seeing in terms of that strength in demand, Chad?
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks Leon and thanks for the question, Emily. As been mentioned before and I will echo, we continue to remain very bullish and excited about 2023 in the non-res space. And I guess to break down what gives us that optimism is, first of all, our backlogs are at historically high levels. While we are off the peak, those unprecedented levels we saw last year, they are still very, very high. And a lot of these projects, they are already moving. Dirt’s already been moved. Concrete is being poured. So, we have a lot of confidence that we will see those projects come to fruition. Furthermore, with our breadth of products and the connections and relationships we have with our customers, the feedback we are getting from our fabricator base, as Al mentioned, especially the larger fabricators, they are very, very optimistic and their backlogs go well out into next year and in some cases, even further. Also, if you look at the two main indicators that a lot of us track, Dodge and ABI, they continue to point to strong activity. Part of your question was about the steel intensity of these projects. And I would say when you start talking about manufacturing plants, EV-related facilities, data centers, cold storage, all these big projects, they are very steel-intensive. So, we are right in the sweet spot. We feel like at Nucor to supply and meet those needs. So – and then it was mentioned infrastructure will play a huge part, we believe, in 2023 and 2024 to support new course efforts, not only in downstream, but in our plate business and our structural business and in our bar business.
Emily Chieng:
Great. I appreciate the additional color. A follow-up I had was just around what may be sort of lumped into sort of conversion costs. I appreciate the comments earlier on energy, and apologies if I missed something on other components of those cost pressures that you are seeing there. But anything that you would be able to share around cost inflationary pressures and whether or not those are stickier are you seeing them come off?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Hey Emily, this is Steve. Thanks for that question. Energy is the most pronounced cost increase we have seen. That’s about 50% year-over-year and we gave you some numbers in the script on where we are. Two other parts are also up, outside of the metal spread. So, the substrate is obviously the largest cost input that we have, but freight and labor costs are also up year-over-year. That’s consistent with probably what every company in America has seen. But I would remind you, Emily, that about 85% of our cost in our steelmaking is variable. And that’s a decided advantage for Nucor over many of our competitors that have much less flexibility and adaptability to respond to dynamic conditions and costs overall. So, we are not necessarily happy about cost going up. But as Al Behr mentioned earlier, we run a margin business. So, we manage everything to the margin, not necessarily to the absolute cost.
Emily Chieng:
Got it. That’s really helpful. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks Emily.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Phil Gibbs:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon Phil.
Phil Gibbs:
Yes. I just wanted to stick with Emily’s question a bit longer because, I mean my model kind of exploded here in terms of costs because my spreads were better, but my steel profits were not. And the sequential pickup in my model was pretty substantial for conversion costs, so even on a sequential basis. So, I am just trying to think through that? And then maybe just expand the conversation a little bit because there wasn’t just a little bit of a pickup.
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Phil, I think the other – in addition to talking about cost, the volumes were down for us. So, that’s an important part of maybe that you may have missed in your model assumptions heading into the quarter relative to what actually happened.
Phil Gibbs:
No volumes were pretty much there. And revenues were actually a little bit better than what I had. And so just to solve for that, it had some math. I don’t know if you loaded a bunch of maintenance into the quarter. And that was substantial. I am not really sure, but I just really stood out.
Steve Laxton:
No, we really did. And I apologize. I can’t see into your Excel spreadsheet from where I am sitting. But our pre-operating start-up costs were in line with the prior quarter, utilizations were down. That’s going to drive your costs somewhat, but the other costs are in line with what you are seeing overall in the marketplace. We are certainly happy to follow-up with you, Phil, and dig into that in more detail and try to help dial into maybe what’s being missed there.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then D&A was up substantially quarter-on-quarter. Was that as Brandenburg is coming out of start-up and then the full phasing, was that the biggest pickup?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. The two big drivers on that really have more to do with some of the start-ups, but also the C.H.I. acquisition that was done. Those two things, if you are picking up amortization in your D&A number, then you are grabbing that one.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then just lastly on looking probably a little over $2 billion of CapEx next year, I think you had laid that out prior. So, I just want to reiterate that if you could. And then anything that you can comment on in terms of working capital in Q4 and what the size of the magnitude could be of the draw? Thanks.
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Phil, on the CapEx side, we do have about $4.5 billion of projects that we have announced that we will be working on between now and 2025. So, we will have an elevated level of CapEx here for at least for next year. And so we will be likely north of $2 billion. We will refine that further as we go into the end of the year here and finalize our budgets. On the working capital, as you said, we released just under $600 million in the quarter on working capital depending on where your model is assuming on volumes and prices, you could see a similar number or even slightly higher in the fourth quarter.
Phil Gibbs:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Phil.
Operator:
And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
End of Q&A:
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. I would like to thank our team for an incredible nine months in 2022 and ask that each of you stay focused on delivering the safest and most profitable year in our history. Additionally, I want to thank our customers who enable our success. We appreciate the trust you place in Nucor with every order, and we will continue to work hard to earn your business. And finally, thank you to our shareholders. With the trust that you place in Nucor, we take that responsibility seriously, and we will work daily to continue to be great stewards as a valuable shareholder capital you entrust us with. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. Certain statements made during the conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor’s latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC’s and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Before we get to our second quarter results, I want to highlight some changes we’ve made to our executive leadership team. As we announced in May, MaryEmily Slate retired on June 11th. MaryEmily is a dedicated and exceptional leader, and we thank her for her more than 21 years with Nucor. Her impact on our teams across the enterprise contributed greatly to Nucor’s success and profitable growth. The Nucor team wishes the very best for you, MaryEmily and your family, and you will always be a tremendously valued member of the Nucor family. With MaryEmily’s retirement, Dan Needham has assumed the role of EVP of Commercial. John Hollatz was promoted to Executive Vice President of Bar, Engineered Bar and Rebar Fabrication. John is a proven leader. Over his 23-year Nucor career, he has served in our Joist and Deck, Building Systems and Flat-rolled businesses. We welcome John to the executive team. As part of this reorganization, Chad Utermark has been appointed to the newly created role of Executive Vice President of New Markets and Innovation. In this new role, Chad will focus on our continued growth into new markets and integrating new businesses into the core operations of Nucor. Also joining me today on the call are members of the Nucor’s executive team, including Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer; Steve Laxton, our Chief Financial Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Doug Jellison, responsible for Raw Materials and Logistics, Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and our General Counsel; and Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products. Our mission, to become the world’s safest steel company, is the greatest measure of our culture and our most important value. Halfway through the year, we are on pace to have our new safest year in history, which is coming off back to back to back record safety years. I want to thank each and every member of the Nucor family for your focus and dedication in ensuring every team member is safe. Turning to our financial performance. We achieved record second quarter earnings per share of $9.67 and record first half earnings of $17.30. This record performance was driven by strength across our diversified portfolio of businesses. Strong financial results were recorded by a number of our businesses, including bar, plate, sheet, structural, joist, deck, buildings, tubular and our raw material operations. Since entering the steel business, we have focused on growing long-term earnings power and shareholder value. This month, we are celebrating 50 years since Nucor was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. During that time, we have led the transformation of the domestic steel industry, and we are the envy of the world in terms of Nucor’s environmental footprint, safety performance and efficiency as well as profitability. Nucor has grown revenues by more than 13% per year from $83 million when we were first listed on the exchange in 1972 to last year’s record of $36.5 billion, even as the total size of the domestic industry has shrunk. We have also grown our workforce from 1,800 team members back in 1972 to more than 31,000 team members today and in the process created a huge amount of shareholder value. $1,000 invested in Nucor when we were first listed would be worth over $1.6 million today. Our record first half results continue the history of delivering new highs in profitability and cash flow through successive economic and steel market cycles, demonstrating the sustainability and adaptability of Nucor’s business model. We have world-class manufacturing talent, and we are making the right investments to continue our track record of outperformance. Several of our recently completed organic growth projects in our core steelmaking businesses are already contributing to our record first half profitability, and there is more to come as additional projects ramp up production or come on line. For example, our Nucor Steel Gallatin modernization and expansion project is now fully operational, having completed the last of their project-related outage work on June 6th. Our Brandenburg, Kentucky plate mill is on schedule and on budget for a late 2022 production start with almost 400 team members on board. This is a game-changing mill in the U.S. plate market that will firmly establish us as the market leader in plate. And in May, the State of West Virginia approved the air quality permit for our new sheet mill in Mason County. Groundbreaking for the project will happen later this year. Also during the second quarter, we completed our purchase of C.H.I. Overhead Doors and announced two acquisitions that will lead to the establishment of Nucor Towers and Structures, which will serve the utility, transportation and telecommunications sectors. We are so excited to welcome our new team members into the Nucor family. As we execute on our mission statement, to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture, these investments are excellent examples of what we look for and expand beyond businesses. They serve growing markets and leverage Nucor’s core manufacturing capabilities and our safety and team-focused, incentive-driven, entrepreneurial culture. We look forward to rapidly scaling up their operations as we continue to broaden our portfolio of construction market solutions. As we evaluate growth initiatives, either in our core business or by expanding beyond, we focused on driving incremental value by leveraging our capabilities and existing positions of strength as we have done for the last 5.5 decades throughout our history. Earlier, I mentioned the 50th anniversary of our New York Stock Exchange listing. Our July 12, 1972, news release announcing the listing gave our firm’s business description as "The nation’s largest producer of steel joists." And it mentioned that the Company also produces carbon and alloy steel. At that time, we just operated one steel mill, which was Nucor Steel Darlington. Nucor’s tremendous growth in profitability and market value over the past five decades has been fueled by our decision back then to expand upstream into steelmaking. The result is that today, we are the leading North American manufacturer of a diverse array of steels and steel products providing essential solutions for construction, infrastructure, energy, transportation, automotive, capital goods and consumer-durable market applications. Today, Expand Beyond is a disciplined strategy for profitable growth and value creation, just as our expansion into steelmaking was 50 years ago. With it, we are targeting higher-growth sectors of the economy and leveraging Nucor’s core competency in efficient, variable cost-based manufacturing as well as our broad product portfolio and existing channels to market. Turning to policy issues. I want to mention that we support swift passage of legislation to address semiconductor manufacturing and beneficial updates to our trade laws through legislation known as Leveling the Playing Field Act 2.0. Congress must get this important bipartisan priority across the finish line. Since the COVID-19 pandemic first disrupted our lives more than two years ago, it has become clear that the U.S. needs strong, resilient domestic supply chains for all sorts of critical materials, such as semiconductors made by great American companies. Reshoring semiconductor production here in America gives us a tremendous opportunity to unleash a manufacturing renaissance in the United States. Also, last week, the U.S. International Trade Commission unanimously extended antidumping and countervailing duty orders for an additional five years on imports of corrosion-resistant steel from China, India, Italy, South Korea and Taiwan. While this is a positive development, unfairly traded imports remain a concern for our industry. The ITC is conducting several more five-year sunset reviews this year off key trade orders on flat-rolled products. These orders are critical to market stability and industry performance and are an important part of our government’s trade enforcement toolkit. Nucor is working hard to ensure that they all remain in place. Finally, today’s headlines are full of concerns regarding inflation, interest rate hikes and whether we’ll experience a recession. While we are all aware of these factors, Nucor’s sustainable and flexible business model gives me great confidence in our ability to continue to grow and create value for our shareholders. Our team is focused on enhancing our capabilities, not simply adding capacity, and on delivering a differentiated value proposition for our customers by reliably and safely providing a broad offering of the most environmentally responsible steels and steel products found anywhere in the world. Before I turn it over to Steve, I want to congratulate our 31,000 Nucor team members for a fantastic first half of the year. Thank you for your hard work and dedication and commitment to delivering exceptional customer service. Let’s continue our progress towards delivering the safest, cleanest and most profitable year in Nucor’s history. Now, Steve Laxton will share additional details on our first half performance and our outlook as we move forward into the second half of the year. Steve?
Steve Laxton:
Thank you, Leon. As Leon mentioned, this year’s second quarter was the best quarterly financial performance in our company’s history. The quarter’s earnings of $9.67 per diluted share exceeded our prior quarterly record of $7.97 per share by more than 20%. Operating profits were stronger than we anticipated for all three segments. I want to thank our 31,000 teammates for these fantastic results. Your dedication and efforts are what drive the efficiency of our manufacturing businesses, which enable us to reliably meet the strong demand we’re seeing across our broad array of products. Comparing the second quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2021, all three segments generated higher earnings with pronounced outperformance in our steel products segment. That segment produced $1.1 billion in operating profits for the quarter. Our joist and deck business continued to be the largest contributor to the segment’s performance. While joist and deck shipments were down from the first quarter, higher prices more than offset the decline in volumes. Contributions from tubular products and metal buildings were aided by both, higher volumes and higher pricing during the quarter. Overall, our steel products segment continues to benefit from strong nonresidential construction demand. This segment’s earnings power and strong free cash flow characteristics continue to make key contributions to our overall performance. In our steel mills segment, shipping volumes were up by 10%. Most of the increase was in sheet and plate as we were able to take advantage of what we consider to be strong demand, leading to attractive pricing in those markets. Our metal margins decreased by about 5% from the first quarter’s $941 per ton to a still robust $895 per ton. Offsetting some of the benefits of the stronger metal margins we have been realizing over the past several quarters are some cost pressures from higher electricity and natural gas pricing. Our energy cost per ton of steel produced was up approximately 50% year-over-year. However, for some context, energy costs still represent approximately 6% of our overall cost per ton. Some of the changes in the energy commodity pricing seen in the marketplace overall over the past year were mitigated by Nucor’s fiscal and financial hedges that we had in place. Our raw materials segment outperformed first quarter results on the back of increasing selling prices for DRI and scrap. DRI benefited from elevated metallics pricing that we use to determine transaction values between segments. Cash provided by operating activities during the quarter was $2.3 billion, enabling both continued investment to grow Nucor’s future earnings power and the return of approximately $900 million of our shareholders’ valuable capital via dividends and share repurchases. Our direct returns to shareholders for the quarter was 37% of earnings. Year-to-date, it is 43%. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. Our highest priority is deployment of capital in our businesses to create long-term value. We also remain committed to our regular quarterly dividend, something Nucor has paid and grown consistently over the last half century. And importantly, we remain committed to additional direct returns to shareholders in times of strong performance with an overall payout ratio of at least 40% of net earnings. During the five years ending in 2021, we returned approximately 56% of Nucor’s net earnings to shareholders. We remain confident that with the capital we retain and deploy, we are building a more resilient, more profitable or more cash-generative Nucor. During the second quarter, Nucor funded $520 million in capital expenditures and $3.1 billion in acquisitions. Between this past December and this year-end, we expect to have completed three major organic growth projects that will substantially enhance the competitive position of our steel mills segment. The first, Hickman’s Gen 3 galv line was completed this past December. The second, Gallatin’s modernization and expansion was completed in June. And the third, our new state-of-the-art plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky is anticipated to start at the end of the year. We expect these investments to generate at least $370 million of combined annual EBITDA, once fully ramped up at mid-cycle performance and considerably more in robust market conditions, like the ones we’re seeing now. Nucor has an additional $3.6 billion of approved and in-process organic growth investments that will be completed by 2025. The largest of these is our West Virginia sheet mill. Once these five projects are fully ramped up, we anticipate they will contribute a further $700 million in run rate EBITDA in normal market conditions. As you’re also aware, we closed on C.H.I. Overhead Doors in June. And with the acquisition of Summit Utility Structures and Sovereign Steel Manufacturing, we’ve established Nucor Towers and Structures. We expect these businesses, along with other new capabilities we’ve acquired, such as insulated metal panels and warehouse solutions, contribute as much as $600 million of incremental EBITDA annually in future years. Turning to the balance sheet briefly. As of the end of June, Nucor had debt to capital of 29% and ample liquidity with $2.5 billion of cash, short-term holdings and restricted cash holdings and an undrawn $1.75 billion in revolving credit facility. In May, we felt it was prudent to enhance liquidity and raised $500 million of senior notes with a three-year maturity and a coupon of 3.95% and $500 million of senior notes with five-year maturity and a coupon of 4.3%. Turning to the outlook for the third quarter of 2022. While we recognize there is considerable economic uncertainty right now, demand appears stable and resilient across our key end-use markets. Prices in the steel segment have softened due to import pressures coupled with overall commodity pricing declines globally. For the third quarter, we expect lower earnings from our steel mills segment relative to Q2, and we expect continued strength in steel products and raw materials with performance roughly in line with the second quarter. For the year, we expect earnings per share will establish a new annual record for Nucor. And thinking about the longer term, with balance sheet strength and product diversity that is unparalleled in our industry, coupled with our highly variable and adaptive business model, we remain confident that Nucor is well positioned to deliver on our commitments to our team, our customers and our shareholders over time. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Operator, we’re now ready to take questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll first hear from Curt Woodworth of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Yes. Hey. Good afternoon, Leon and team. And congrats on the exceptional quarter. First question is just with respect to the plate and structural markets. You noticed somewhat soft utilization rates for those verticals this year, yet pricing is holding up extremely well and basically close to record metal spread today. So just wondering if you could talk to kind of what you’re seeing in those markets and maybe long products more broadly and then how you think about plate volumes into ‘23 with respect to ramping Brandenburg. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Absolutely. Kurt, thank you. And we’re incredibly proud of our team and achieving an incredible quarter, an incredible first half of the year at over $17 per diluted share. It’s just a tremendous outcome, and again, something that we and the entire executive team could not be more proud of the 30,000 men and women who make up the Nucor family. Specifically to your question on structural and plate, I’ll let Al Behr, our EVP of Plate and Structural, touch on it. I’ll just say from a very high level before I turn it to Al that one of the unique opportunities that we have, particularly in structural, is the market share position that we have. We are the leading structural manufacturer in the United States. And it’s something that we’ve talked about many times and shared with you and other analysts that through the cycle, we have seen incredible performance in that sector with Nucor-Yamato, Nucor-Berkeley beams reporting incredible returns and profitability out of those mills even with some, at the time, depressed utilization rates in the high-60s, low-70s. Over the last couple of years, that’s improved markedly in ‘21, peaked at [Technical Difficulty] 90s. So, that business segment for us continues to operate. And Al, I won’t steal all your thunder, but we couldn’t be more excited about the shift and what’s moving in plate. In the -- soon coming on line of our plate mill in Brandenburg. But why don’t you just touch on that a little bit and share where we’re at with Brandenburg as well.
Al Behr:
Yes. Thanks, Curt. Thanks, Leon. As Leon said, Curt, I’d just echo on the structural side, I’ll start there first. We typically run at utilization 60%, 70% and hold that leadership position. And Q2, we saw much of the same. So, our utilization may have ticked down just slightly in the structural side. And I’d say that’s just not chasing the cheap tons. Truck and railcar availability remains a bit challenged and probably slowed up a few tons. But our market share position remains strong. Our utilization remains right where we’d expect it. And we remain really excited about the opportunities in structural as we talk to fabricators and we talk to the what I call the consumptive demand part of the market, the folks that are buying our steel and making something out of it is still really strong. And we’re excited about the rest of this year and we’re excited, frankly, about 2023. With regard to plate, I would say we’ve made several changes on how we market that product, how we take it to market, how we price it and how we lowered our order books. And we’re really pleased with what that has brought to the market in terms of a rationality of pricing and much less volatility in the pricing and -- but supply and demand still governs the price of that, and we publish a price, but the market determines what it really is. And it’s held quite strong. Our utilization in Q2 was improved from Q1. Our order book improved when we talk about project work from bridges from infrastructure, which we expect to mainly hit in 2023 but is starting to strengthen even today. Again, fabricators are a big part of that plate business. They remain strong with strong backlogs. So, service centers is a big product segment. They remain a bit cautious with their buys. The sentiment around that part of the market is perhaps, I would say more pessimistic than what the reality is. But again, the consumptive side, really, really strong. And you asked about 2023. I would just say we would expect continued robust markets. Nonresidential construction has been one of our most resilient markets across the enterprise, and we would expect that continues in 2023. I mentioned infrastructure starting to produce better strength. Energy, including renewables, has been a strong market. So, when we talk about the buildup to the start-up of Brandenburg by the end of this year in the markets, it will start to serve and open up for us in renewables like offshore wind and some, even specialty pipe work. It’s very exciting. I mean, we stand as the only mill in North America, the only mill in the Western Hemisphere that can serve that market that’s currently served by foreign steel, mostly blast furnace steel. This will be the cleanest offshore-powered steel that exists in the world, and we stand in a perfect position to serve that market. So pretty excited about it. Our team has done a wonderful job there navigating the challenges that that project has faced over a couple of years, and we sit ready for a start-up by the end of the year. We hope this strike an arc, as a matter of fact, on the hot side even yet in the next literally day or two. So very excited, very proud of that team. Appreciate your question. Thanks.
Curt Woodworth:
Great. And maybe just as a quick follow-up. With respect to Gallatin, can you just give us an update on progress there and what your commercial expectations are for volumes in the fourth quarter?
Steve Laxton:
Yes. Thanks, Curt. I will ask Rex Query, our EVP of Sheet and Tubular, to give an update on Gallatin.
Rex Query:
Yes. Curt, thank you for the question. Quick summary, all our primary steelmaking equipment has been purchased. We’ve awarded our significant portions of civil and concrete work.
Leon Topalian:
[Indiscernible]
Rex Query:
Oh, I’m sorry. I’m going -- sorry, Curt, was talking about West Virginia, which I’ll hold that for a moment and share that here perhaps a little later to the question or a follow-up. But for Gallatin, completed our second quarter outage. All equipment is being commissioned at this point. We’re already expanded -- have expanded our slab with beyond original capabilities. So we’re beyond 68 inches now. That -- the new equipment, we’re capable of 73.5 inches. And we’ll be ramping up here third quarter. By fourth quarter, we expect to be at nameplate capacity. And as you may recall, original stated capacity for that mill, about 1.6 million tons. The expansion will add about 1.4 million. So, we’ll be right at the 3 million-ton mark and capable of producing at nameplate capacity during the fourth quarter. Our ramp-up also in what we produce will be determined also by what’s going on in the marketplace. So I do want to state that, and we’ll gauge that by the demand in the marketplace. So thanks for the question.
Operator:
And next, we’ll hear from Seth Rosenfeld of BNP Paribas.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I’ve got two points on raw material strategy, please. First, with regards to pig iron from the mills’ perspective, obviously, when we spoke to you a few months ago, you emphasized the strategy to derisk pig iron supply for the full year. What does that mean for your cost of inventory today? Were you ultimately forced to lock in some high-priced deliveries that might be arriving even though spot has declined sharply? And then secondly, from the raw materials side, I think your guidance includes higher DRI price realizations in Q3. Can you explain what would drive that given the weaker scrap and pig iron prices that we’re seeing in the spot market Q-over-Q? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Seth, thanks for the question. I’ll ask Doug Jellison, our EVP of Raw Materials and Logistics, really to provide some background in how that flow-through impact of the DRI pricing into the mills works and explain that in a little more detail. Doug?
Doug Jellison:
Sure, Leon. Thanks. Thanks for the questions, Seth. First thing, I want to acknowledge the great work that the mills in our raw materials group has done over the last six months, tremendous flexibility and execution to react to the changes in the supply chain. No stops in production. We’ve cut our pig use by about 50%, which also has led to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and has really been a key part of supporting our record earnings. So, a big shout-out to the team and a thank you. You’re asking about pig iron. I mentioned our reliance on pig is half of this year what it was last year. There’s no overhang or buildup of pigs. There is the normal flow of pig prices as we purchase pigs, deliveries, lead times, working through inventories. So, we see a little bit probably leveling of pig prices through the third quarter declining into the fourth quarter. As far as the DRI, we adjust our DRI transfer price monthly. We want the transfer price to reflect the market price into the steel mills, so that will reflect in those segment reporting. And as a result of that, we see a stable input cost to DRI with a still elevated pig price or transfer price into the third quarter and then dropping pretty significantly into the fourth quarter.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Carlos De Alba of Morgan Stanley.
Carlos De Alba:
Maybe just exploring a little bit more the outlook for the steel product business. The guidance seems to suggest that it should be relatively in line with the second quarter. But, could you comment a little bit more where you see the main changes? What is the composition of these basically stable operating results? Is it prices offsetting -- sorry, the volumes offsetting prices, the other way around? How do you see margins? Any color would be helpful. And then, if I may squeeze another one. Is it possible to get an update on how you see CapEx for the remainder of the year, maybe first look at 2023? And how do you see working capital evolving in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Okay, Carlos. Let me start off with our steel products businesses. And it’s a good question in terms of how that breaks out because there are segments within the products group that will continue to have record-setting pace in performance. And as a group, though, in its entirety, the steel, joist and deck buildings, different segments that are contained in our steel products group had a record quarter in this past quarter. And in fact, their performance in the quarter was stronger financially than the entire year of 2021. So, at $1.1 billion of net earnings for our products group, they are setting an incredibly high bar and really operating on all cylinders. Chad Utermark, who was over our EVP of our Products Group and now moving into New Markets. Chad, why don’t you just kind of break through a little bit of that split and how that’s looking, what’s our forecasting into Q3 and Q4? And then, Steve, if you would, on the CapEx?
Chad Utermark:
Thanks, Leon. Yes, similar to what we had in the script, we expect Q3 earnings to be very similar to the record-breaking results that we had in Q2. So just a big shout-out to all of our downstream product groups. As Leon mentioned, we have multiple businesses from joist and deck, rebar fab, steel piling, racking, tubing, insulated panel, grading. So, that group continues to perform well. There are indicators that we have come off the high in some of these businesses as far as backlogs. But I want to remind you how strong those highs were. And in some of our businesses, our backlogs are still at record levels. But most all of our downstream businesses have current backlog levels that are 30% to 50% higher than the average backlog we had in that 2015 to 2019 period to the pandemic. So, we still see that nonres construction space that is the driver for these businesses, as Al mentioned earlier, to be very strong. What can you expect going forward, even out past third quarter and into the future? What I would say is you should expect higher highs and higher lows. And here’s why. Number one, we’ve been making some changes in our businesses through the years, and we’ve talked about some of those, from restructuring some of our business to bringing on a construction solutions team, even alignment within our groups to better, more effective commercial practices and expectations that drive higher EBITDA margins. And we’re not done. Bottom line in some of our business is downstream, we needed to get better. We’ve made progress, and I’m proud of where the team is at and where we’re headed. In addition to that, we’re bringing on these new businesses in Expand Beyond. So, you should expect good results from businesses like our insulated metal panel business as we grow that and as we drive efficiencies through that. Steel racking, steel towers, and obviously, the overhead steel doors with the acquisition of C.H.I., all these should positively impact our profitability as we fully utilize and integrate these products into our Construction Solutions portfolio. So I guess you can’t hear my excitement, I’ll reiterate, yes, I’m excited about the future of our downstream businesses.
Leon Topalian:
Hey Chad, one thing I’ll add and just maybe a further point, Carlos, to share some of this. We get some questions or I’ve got some questions over the last weeks, months what -- why are you so optimistic in the face of inflation and interest rates. If we just look, for example, at the warehousing space, forecast by Dodge for 2023 is down about 19%. But as Chad mentioned, and I think it’s an incredibly important part, our industry is shifted and it shifted substantially through reconciliations, through consolidation and through trade. And as a result, you are seeing higher highs and higher lows. But equally, that drop in 19% for 2023 is 60% higher than what we saw our previous record year, which was 2018 prior to 2021. So, it’s 60% higher than what we did in 2018. So, in terms of the volumes, yes, it’s coming off 19%. But the overall market is still incredibly strong, and there’s a lot to be optimistic about in that space. Now, the other piece of that, when we look at Nucor buildings group, the Nucor buildings group does roughly about 10,000 buildings annually, just our Nucor buildings group. Every one of those buildings has somewhere between 4 and 12 to 15 doors on every building. Well, now with C.H.I., it is an incredible marriage as they continue to grow their commercial end to tie in with that dealer network with those businesses. And then, you think about the rest of the warehousing space with companies like Amazon, the Gigafactories, the chip factories, and hopefully, we’ll see that pass here in Washington D.C. and the CHIPS Act and that incentive package supported to build an onshore and reshore American manufacturing. But that is an incredible construction solution piece. So, having C.H.I. now in the portfolio continues to differentiate Nucor as a one-stop differentiated supplier that can take care of all the needs. And that’s how we’re thinking about it as we move forward and the types of businesses Chad will be responsible for in the Expand Beyond category. So again, thank you, Chad. And Steve, do you want to touch on sort of our CapEx for the balance of the year and how we’re looking? Thank you.
Steve Laxton:
Absolutely. Hey Carlos, how are you doing? This is Steve. You asked about capital for the remainder of the year. And we have guided to a little more than $2 billion on the year. And so, I’ll give you that same outlook from what we said today. We spent about $1 billion so far. So, you can back into roughly $1 billion for the second half of the year. And you’d asked about working capital. Working capital is obviously going to vary where you believe steel pricing is going to go across our system. And I’ll let you take a best guess at that. You probably know better than we do.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Emily Chieng of Goldman Sachs.
Emily Chieng:
My first question is just around the infrastructure package that should start to really accelerate in 2023. But, how much early demand are you seeing that -- from that materialize this year? And perhaps what are the categories that are taking some of the early wins there?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks, Emily. And look, I would tell you that right now, there’s a lot of dialogue going on. But, we’re not seeing any real movement in terms of material orders. We really think that will start in earnest in early ‘23 and really begin to progress throughout the year 2023. So, while our teams, our division businesses are ramping up and at the ready, I think we’re still about six months out from really seeing that move through our company.
Emily Chieng:
Great. That makes sense. And then, my follow-up is just on the steel mill side. We’ve certainly been seeing a little bit more of a buyer strike type of activity from -- on the customers and as it relates to sort of hot-rolled. But how are market participants acting now? Is there any sort of renewed or early signs of renewed appetite to reengage here?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I think so. And again, if we look at our most recent order books, sheet’s strong. We’re seeing some -- again, the word resiliency is the right word across the nonres construction businesses and you know well now in Nucor that 50% of our overall mix is into the construction sector. So us providing, again, a complete solution really is a differentiated value proposition. But yes, we are seeing, again, stable demand and growing in some cases. But it’s certainly not without looking as well as some of the headwinds that are coming from an economy standpoint in the marketplace of interest rates and inflation. It’s in supply chain and some of those constraints. While those are real, the driving demand factors in our businesses, for the most part, remain very healthy. And automotive is a good example. If we could solve the chip shortage today, I think we’re going to crest well over 17 million units sold. And while that’s the forecast and it’s easy to say that, I truly believe that. I think the underlying demand, the consumable spending appetite in this country still remains fairly high. And so, again, there are some things I think that will begin to loosen up and break loose in the back half of this year and well into ‘23 that will help in addition to the infrastructure, like getting a bit more caught off on the chips and as Al mentioned, the offshore wind. And what we saw President Biden recently announced an executive orders yesterday, that will continue to position Nucor well, will position Nucor’s plate group and particularly Brandenburg, and an incredible value-add opportunity for our customers.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We’ll now hear from Timna Tanners of Wolfe Research.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to ask two questions. One was to kind of probe what was discussed earlier on Gallatin a little bit more. And the other was to ask about follow-up to the garage door acquisition. So, with regard to Gallatin, if I look at your sheet tons, you’re running -- run rate less than a year ago levels. And I know you made a comment that you tailor it to production to -- sorry, to tailor production to demand levels. But how much of Gallatin was in the second quarter? And assuming demand allows, should we be seeing that 1.4, half of that flow through fully in the second half of the year? Just trying to square that with the volumes being lower year-over-year. And then, the C.H.I. acquisition question, I just wanted to follow up. I know you said that you were looking to shore up maybe more overhead garage stores to kind of get more critical mass like you did with the tubulars -- structural tubing in the past. So just wondering if you have any updated comments there. Thanks a lot.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Let me start with the back half and then, Rex, I’ll turn it over to you. And we’ve got, I think, good questions on the Gallatin front. What we’ve seen today would be very little through the cycle of the overall volume, but I’ll let Rex touch more on that. Regarding the C.H.I. acquisition, look, in our minds, we acquired the very best company out there in that space, period, bar none. So, our opportunity really isn’t to move or look for other large garage door companies. We are roughly operating at about 60% total utilization in -- with C.H.I. today. We have a lot of room to grow. And most of that 60% is concentrated sort of that mid-USA levels. The further out towards the coast you get, the market share has dropped off a little bit. So, you have an opportunity -- or we have an opportunity to really grow that business with what we have today. Now, there may be some things that we’re looking at that I can’t get into that would be very, very small that might be complementary, but we -- our eggs are in the C.H.I. basket. Couldn’t be more excited about Dave Banger and his leadership team, the entire C.H.I. team and welcoming them to the Nucor family and what they’re doing in that business segment. We’re proud of them already. We’re proud to call them Nucor team members, and the growth that they’re going to bring in the coming years is something incredibly exciting for us. Rex, do you want to touch on the Gallatin question?
Rex Query:
Yes, Timna. I’ll speak first -- we’ll speak about the first half of the year. We had some outages with Gallatin as we were installing this equipment. So, if you look at the group -- if you took the first half of the year, we were running at a utilization above the 80% mark as a group. With the outages, we were a little bit under that at Gallatin, but we augmented that with other sheet mills in our group. So, that was how we handled that, took care of customers through supply from other mills. So, now that the outage is complete, equipment is installed, our run rate will ramp up, and we’re putting the equipment through its paces. So, we’re doing a full thickness slab now in a new slab, 130-millimeter. But as we start to put the mill through its paces, we’ll go wider and wider. That will happen during the third quarter. And again, we’ll have the capability. We absolutely expect in the fourth quarter to run at really nameplate capacity. So, you would look right at that 3 million ton run rate annualized. But we’ll gauge that to what the market is doing off of that.
Leon Topalian:
Timna, where we see, maybe a little more color. It’d probably be in the several hundred thousand ton range, based on what we see today that we would produce between now and the end of the year and from the new expansion part of Gallatin.
Rex Query:
Correct.
Operator:
Next, we’ll hear from Michael Leshock of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Michael Leshock:
I wanted to follow up on your M&A commentary. It sounds like the C.H.I. side will be mostly organic growth from here. But do you see other opportunities to make downstream acquisitions? And how deep is your pipeline of potential targets right now?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Mike, thank you for the question. When I took over in January of 2020, our eight-word mission statement is alive and well, and that’s Grow Our Core, Expand Beyond and Live Our Culture. And so the Live the Culture piece is easy. It’s delivering uncompromising results in every area of our business and doing that while maintaining the safety, health and wellbeing of our team. The core is just at the West Virginia mill, the Lexington micro mill, the expansions in Hickman and the new increases across in Kankakee and other core assets that we have. This Expand Beyond piece over the last 2.5 years driven really by Steve Laxton before he became CFO and Alex Hoffman is really about finding those companies that provide a differentiated value proposition and moving us sort of that one standard deviation outside of the normal and traditional steelmaking lane that have direct steel adjacency, but like C.H.I. offer you some insulation from the traditional cyclicality of steelmaking. Hannibal Industries is in doing that. Cornerstone and the insulated metal panel building business is doing that. The other side of it and the other filter that we look for is how do we continue to provide sweeping solutions in construction, in energy, in automotive, so that when our commercial teams go and meet with the architects, engineers, owners, VCs, they can say we’ve got the entire solution for you. You don’t have to worry about doors or joist or deck or grading or anything else. We are a one-stop shop and can solve the entity and entirety of their steel needs. So the pipeline is rich. I think it will get richer as we move forward. And for every downturn, Nucor has gotten stronger and continue to invest that our cash flow position, the profits we’re generating today put Nucor in an ideal position to continue to be very deliberate and very strategic with long-term goals to enhance our shareholder value.
Operator:
At this time, there are no further questions. I will turn the call back over to Leon for any additional or closing comments.
Leon Topalian:
I’d just like to congratulate our entire team again for a record first half of the year. Thank you for delivering on our mission and making 2022 the safest, cleanest and most profitable year in our history. Thank you to our customers, and thank you for the trust that you place in each and every one of our Nucor teams for your business. We will continue to work hard to earn that business well into the future. And finally, thank you to our shareholders for the trusted capital that you place in our hands. We continue to want to be great stewards and great shepherds to return that valuable shareholder capital. Thank you for your interest in our company. Have a great day.
Operator:
That does conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during the conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. I'd like to begin the call by introducing our new Chief Financial Officer, Steve Laxton. During the first quarter, we announced the retirement of Jim Frias and the appointment of Steve to the role of CFO. Steve began his career in Nucor in 2003 and has spent the last 8 years as our Vice President of Business Development. We're excited for Steve's future as CFO and welcome him to the executive team. And you'll be hearing from Steve in a few minutes about our first quarter financial performance. I'd also like to take the opportunity to thank Jim Frias for his 30 years with Nucor. He has had a tremendous impact on me, our team and our company, and we wish Jim and his wife, Sharon, and family the very best in his upcoming retirement. Also joining us on the call today are members of the Nucor executive team, including Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for plate and structural products; Doug Jellison, responsible for raw materials and logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for business services and our General Counsel; Dan Needham, responsible for bar, engineered bar and rebar fabrication; Rex Query, responsible for sheet and tubular products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for our enterprise, commercial strategy; and Chad Utermark, responsible for fabricated construction products. Last year, we achieved record safety performance, beating the safety record we set in 2020, and the Nucor team is off to another strong start in the first quarter of 2022. We continue to see excellent safety performance across our divisions as our teams work to meet strong demand from our customers. I'm proud of our team's commitment and progress toward achieving our goal of becoming the world's safest steel company. Team, together, let's set another record in 2022. Turning to our financial performance. We achieved record first quarter results with earnings per share of $7.67. The quarter was marked by pronounced volatility as Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacted commodity markets and the supply chains of nearly every industry. While the Ukraine-Russia conflict certainly is having an impact on our industry, the much larger concern is the humanitarian disaster that has unfolded in Ukraine. The images coming out of Ukraine are heartbreaking and our thoughts and prayers are with the Ukrainian people who continue to endure significant suffering due to the invasion. The onset of the pandemic in March of 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are 2 recent events that upended markets and showed the resilience and sustainability of our business model. Our flexible production process and diversified product portfolio have helped us to thrive in the volatile market conditions that followed. I'm extremely proud of how our Nucor team has navigated the pandemic and several unexpected supply chain disruptions over the past 2 years. We are on the cusp of completing $4.1 billion in strategic organic growth investments by the end of 2022. We have also completed $2.1 billion in strategic acquisitions and returned approximately $4.8 billion in capital to our investors through the last 5 quarters. Our balance sheet remains under levered, and we have a fresh series of new organic growth initiatives that are just getting underway. Nucor delivered breakout record performance in 2021. And now we're beginning 2022 with a new quarterly record, which we expect to surpass again in the second quarter. Our team's ability to navigate the current disruption to the seaborne pig iron markets highlight the benefit of Nucor's powerful and adaptive business model. Pig iron makes up roughly 10% of Nucor's overall metallic supply in a typical year. Russia and Ukraine have historically accounted for over half of that supply. However, at the outset of this war, we immediately ceased all purchases of pig iron and any other raw materials from Russian suppliers. We could do this without disrupting customer supply or quality because we have worked over the years to effectively manage the risks related to our raw material needs. While we have not been able to source material from Ukraine since the war began, we look forward to partnering with our Ukrainian suppliers when conditions in the region permit. We have several advantages that are enabling us to manage through this disruption, including good long-term relationships with numerous pig iron producers globally; reliable DRI production capabilities in Trinidad and Louisiana that are particularly helpful in this environment; the ability to increase our production of low copper spread and to continue to invest in additional technologies for high-quality metallics, especially those that can help us further reduce Nucor's carbon footprint; and our DJJ brokerage arm that has once again proven its value as it utilizes its broad network to ensure our steel mills have the scrap they need to meet our customers' requirements. Turning to current market conditions. We continue to see robust demand across the key end-use markets we serve. Some markets, like automotive, continue to be constrained due to supply chain issues. Last year, we realized outstanding results despite key markets such as automotive and energy being challenged and well below their averages and our initial expectations. The first quarter of 2022 was similar, with very strong overall demand despite continued supply constraints, production challenges in automotive and relatively tepid response for energy products despite strong pricing for hydrocarbons. And now let me provide a quick update on some specific growth initiatives. During the first quarter, we completed our acquisition of a majority stake in California Steel Industries. And as we've discussed on our last call, this $400 million investment expands our geographic reach in the sheet market to the West Coast, grows our portfolio of value-added sheet products and create supply chain efficiencies with Nucor's downstream businesses in the region, including Verco and Hannibal Industries. We welcome CSI teammates to our Nucor family. We also announced plans to modernize and expand the product capabilities of our sheet mill in Crawfordsville, Indiana by adding a construction-grade continuous galvanizing line and prepaint line. The construction-grade continuous galva line will have a capacity of 300,000 tons per year, while the prepaint line will have an annual capacity of 250,000 tons per year. Crawfordsville was our first sheet mill, pioneering EAF thin slab casting. These projects in Indiana will enhance Crawfordsville's ability to competitively serve the regional construction market. Earlier this month, we announced plans to build our third rebar micro mill in Lexington, North Carolina. We have had great success with our micro mills in Missouri and Florida, and saw a real opportunity to supply rebar to the fast-growing region between Washington and Atlanta. Population growth in this region, along with the new federal infrastructure spending, is increasing rebar demand. The site in Lexington is near abundant scrap supplies and transportation corridors, allowing us to efficiently deliver rebar to customers in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. We're really excited to be growing our presence and creating jobs in our home state of North Carolina. With regard to our modernization and expansion project at Gallatin, the team there has completed commissioning the EAF and LMF. The caster and second down coiler will be commissioned during the coming weeks. Following that, we'll have 7-day outage in early June to commission the roughing mill and hot mill crop shear. By June, all of Gallatin's new capabilities and capacities will be online. We currently anticipate shipping approximately 0.5 million tons of Gallatin's added capacity in 2022. By Q3, Gallatin should be able to produce at a 3 million ton per year rate. Our team continues to receive recognition from our customers for the high-quality products we provide. For the fourth year in a row, Nucor has received GM Supplier of the Year Award. We remain the only EES steelmaker to receive this award. In addition, Nucor received GM's Overdrive Award for supplying them with our iconic products. GM is our first customer to receive these products, and it is an example of how we work and listen to our customers to help them achieve their sustainability goals. These awards also demonstrate the benefits of investments we are making to serve our automotive and other customers with demanding applications for lower-CO2-intensity steel. To our Nucor team, you should be extremely proud of receiving this recognition for 4 years running. Econiq is just one example of our focus on sustainability. While our greenhouse gas emissions are just 1/4 of the global average for the steel industry, we continue to look for ways to further reduce our emissions. We have supported the development of solar and wind energy projects by signing 3 power purchase agreements for roughly 600 megawatts of renewable power generation capacity. And earlier this month, we announced an investment in NuScale, a leading developer of new nuclear power technology called the small modular reactor. This investment in NuScale complements these efforts to help the United States develop new sources of clean power. And effective electric grid requires both baseload and intermittent power sources, which is why we believe that both nuclear and renewable energy must be a part of the solution to achieve carbon reductions while maintaining grid reliability. On the trade front, unfairly traded imports remain a concern. The U.S. ITC is conducting 5-year sunset reviews this year of key trade orders on flat products, including cold-rolled steel and corrosion-resistant steel. These orders are important to market stability and industry performance, and Nucor will vigorously work to ensure that they remain in place. We view our advocacy for effective trade law enforcement as an essential component of Nucor's efforts to take care of our customers, teammates and shareholders. Nucor is investing more than $7.5 billion in our steelmaking operations over the 2019 to 2025 period. These investments are expanding the Nucor team by approximately 3,000 jobs and are driven by exciting opportunities to compete in a global steel marketplace where winners are determined by real cost and quality advantages that create sustainable value for consumers and not by government subsidies or other noneconomic factors. I'm incredibly proud of the Nucor team's exceptional focus on delivering world-class performance in every area of our business, particularly our record-breaking results in safety and profitability. We are grateful for the trust our customers place in the Nucor team with every order, and we strive to offer exceptional customer value by being leaders and delivering the cleanest and most sustainable steel solutions in the world. Our key forward-looking indicators for 2022 remain favorable, and we expect another strong year in both earnings and cash generation. Now Steve Laxton will provide more details about our first quarter performance. Steve?
Stephen Laxton:
Thanks, Leon. I want to start out by thanking all of my Nucor teammates for their outstanding work in the first quarter. As they've done over my 19 years with Nucor, the men and women of this team continue to inspire me by what's achieved working together. And I'm honored and privileged to be working alongside you in my new role as CFO. As Leon mentioned, first quarter of 2022 earnings of $7.67 per share establishes a new first quarter record, more than doubling the prior record of $3.10 set last year in the first quarter. These results also exceeded our guidance range of $7.20 to $7.30 per diluted share. Better-than-forecast earnings for the month of March were achieved across a broad array of businesses, including our rebar and merchant bar mills, sheet mills, building systems and raw materials businesses. The value of Nucor's unrivaled product diversity, coupled with our highly variable and adaptive cost structure, was on display yet again in the first quarter. Comparing the first quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2021, a number of our businesses achieved strong earnings growth and provide an offset to weaker pricing and volumes that impacted our sheet business. Our Steel Products segment profits of $684 million was the highest quarterly results ever. We fully expect the segment to set a new quarterly earnings record in the second quarter as nonresidential construction demand remains strong, and margins continued to expand in joist and deck, metal buildings and tubular products. It's worth noting here that over the last 10 years, the period ended in 2021, our Steel Products segment EBITDA increased from $66 million in 2012 to just under $1.5 billion last year. Over time, we've intentionally developed a diverse portfolio of market-leading businesses that provide a wider set of the end-market solutions. These include joists, deck, tubular products, cold finished bars, metal buildings, fasteners, and most recently, insulated metal panels and racking systems. These last 2 additions made in 2021 make a fantastic complement to Nucor as they sit at the confluence of our core capabilities and growth sectors of the economy. Strong net earnings for the quarter translated into strong cash flows from operations, which amounted to approximately $2.5 billion. We redeployed a portion of this cash via cash expenditures and acquisitions totaling almost $800 million. These strong cash flows also positioned us well to continue to deliver on our commitment to provide attractive cash returns to our shareholders. Capital returns during the period totaled over $1 billion or about 50% of quarterly net income. They consisted of dividends of $137 million and share repurchases of $905 million or approximately 7 million shares. Financial strength remains a critical enabler of Nucor's ability to create incremental value for shareholders. Our company continues to have the strongest credit rating in the North American steel sector. At the close of the first quarter, our cash, short-term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled $4.3 billion. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.75 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which matures in November of 2026. Total long-term debt, including current portion, was approximately $6.7 billion at the end of the first quarter. This includes $1.1 billion of bonds we issued last month. Half of these are 10-year notes with a coupon rate just above 3.1%, and the other half are 30-year notes with a coupon rate just under 3.9%. These proceeds will be used to redeem our $600 million of 4 1/8% notes due this September and our $500 million of 4% notes due in August of 2023. On March 25, we issued a notice to redeem all $500 million of the 4% notes. Excluding the debt being redeemed this month and the debt maturing in September, gross debt as a percentage of total capital was approximately 26% at the close of the first quarter. And now I'd like to spend a minute or 2 on capital allocation. Nucor has a clear capital allocation framework that remains unchanged. Our first priority for capital is to create additional value through deployment that leverages our existing capabilities and positions of strength. Our second priority is to maintain and grow a healthy regular dividend, something we've done for 49 straight years without fail. Lastly, we remain committed to sharing upside returns directly with our shareholders. Specifically, we target a minimum of 40% of our earnings going directly to shareholders via cash dividends and share repurchases. The execution of that first priority is how we create meaningful long-term value for our shareholders. The present successes we are realizing today are a result of our team's consistent focus over our company's long history on disciplined execution of our business model and growth strategy. Today, we are laying the foundation for a future of further value creation. Let me highlight here a summary of some of the key activities. As Leon mentioned, with the completion of Brandenburg later this year, we will have deployed approximately $4.1 billion of capital over the past few years on 10 significant projects that enhance Nucor's competitive position across its product portfolio. We remain confident that these 10 projects will generate annual EBITDA of at least $600 million during normal market conditions. During stronger environments, such as 2021 and '22, we can expect far better results from them. You may recall that during our fourth quarter earnings call, we noted that 5 completed projects, accounting for approximately $1 billion of capital spending, generated about $675 million in EBITDA during 2021. Looking further ahead, we have roughly another $3.5 billion of incremental capital spending on significant projects planned for the coming years, including our North Carolina rebar micro mill, enhanced capabilities at our Gallatin and Crawfordsville mills, and our West Virginia sheet mill. We expect that once fully ramped up, these facilities will be able to generate around $700 million of incremental EBITDA annually for Nucor, again, during normal market conditions. In addition to our organic growth opportunities, Nucor continues to engage in strategic and targeted M&A activity. As Leon mentioned, we've deployed about $2.1 billion in capital via acquisitions during his tenure as CEO. Collectively, these investments further differentiate Nucor and create a powerful catalyst for future sustainability and shareholder value. We expect to add more than $1.6 billion to Nucor's run rate EBITDA in future years from these already completed and underway investments. We're excited about these opportunities to grow substantial shareholder value in the years ahead. We'll have a short slide deck summarizing and posted on the IR page of nucor.com later today. As Leon mentioned, demand remains strong across our key end-use markets. We expect that the second quarter of 2022 will be the most profitable quarter in Nucor's history, surpassing the previous record set in the fourth quarter of 2021. Second quarter earnings will be driven by the increased profitability in Steel Products segment I mentioned earlier. In addition, the Steel Mills segment earnings are expected to strengthen due primarily to increased profitability of our sheet and plate mills. Nucor's raw materials segment is expected to generate increased profits in the second quarter due to relatively higher selling prices for raw materials. Thank you for your interest in our company. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.
Emily Chieng:
Thank you for the update today. My first question is just around the volumes that we did see in the first quarter. It looked like there was some declines in plate and maybe modestly lower sheet shipments sequentially. Any sort of end market that's particularly driving that and then expectations for the rest of the year as we progress? And maybe on that same note, I would note that steel mill operating rates did -- were noted to fall in to 77%. Is that just a function of a higher denominator?
Leon Topalian:
Emily, thank you for the questions. If I forget the second or third ones, please remind me. But let me begin with kind of the backdrop of what we saw in Q1, and I'll begin with sheet. And Rex Query, our EVP of Sheet, might jump in here for a point or two. But as we saw it move from Q4 and really an end of a historic year in all of our product groups and company in 2021 into 2022, we obviously saw kind of -- about 3 factors culminating in the end of the year. One was imports coming back in, largely from Mexico and Canada. Two, the distributors really got full. And three, the mills all caught up sort of at the same time. And so as we enter 2022, with pricing going a little bit down and some weakening on the sheet side, we saw some softening there. The large piece of our sheet business is contract-based. And so we made some deliberate decisions at that time to focus on our maintenance, took some outages at different facilities to really ensure that we were able and ready to go when that pivot came. And obviously, that pivot came just a few weeks later. But also -- I'd share with you, Emily, that we also had a strategic decision to not put tons out there in the spot market when we didn't believe the volumes would support that. And so we didn't chase tons. And as a result, you saw some of our utilization has dropped some. But again, as we see the underlying demand in sheet and plate, it continues to be incredibly resilient. And as we -- Steve just shared with you earlier, we expect Q2 to be in an incredibly strong position. Further, as we talk about profitability for Q2, part of the reason why we see Q2 being a record is because our approach commercially and how we're moving through. So you're going to see those higher-priced tons, again, that pivot coming in February into early March, flow through into Q2 very, very quickly. Rex, anything you'd add to that on the sheet side? And then Al Behr, maybe a comment or two on plate.
Rex Query:
Emily, thanks for the question. And well covered, I can only add a few items. I think Leon did well setting the stage of what happened late in the year as we progress. And basically, what we saw was those conditions being corrected as we entered early into the first quarter. So the second part you asked was about expectations for the remainder of the year, and I'll tie that in with the utilization. To the utilization, that 77% you mentioned, we're going to see a substantial increase for that. We positioned ourselves well with the outages we've had and the maintenance work that occurred to be able to do that and ramp up for the remainder of the year. I can speak for the next coming months, bookings have been very strong. Backlog has increased, so we see strength. Underlying demand in our core segments that we have in the economy in general are very strong.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Rex. Al?
Allen Behr:
Yes, I would -- the story on plates, very similar, Emily. I'll just add a couple comments in detail. When we look at the market, we look at a couple of levels. One is at the end user level, where the consumption actually takes place. And as Leon covered, we saw strong demand there. I would say, fabricators remain noteworthy in their strength. The construction business, heavy equipment remained noteworthy in its strength. There were several areas there where that pull from the consumptive side was strong. As we look at the distributor level, we did see through the quarter some inventory adjustments as they work their inventories lower, and that created some weakness in the spot market that, frankly, we chose not to chase those tons. We kept a long-term focus on profitable tons and use that as an opportunity to take some outage time and do some preventative maintenance and get our operations in a position to where they sit today, at a great position to capitalize on the improving market conditions, the improving pricing, the improving activity. And we would expect to run in Q2 at significantly higher utilization and likely higher margins. So thanks for the question.
Emily Chieng:
Great. That makes a lot of sense.
Leon Topalian:
Is that covered it, Emily?
Emily Chieng:
Yes. No, that was very clear. I do have a follow-up, and it's just around the raw material mix. And I appreciate the comments that you provided earlier. My question is around the DRI component. I appreciate that you've got a couple of assets there in Trinidad and Louisiana. How should we think about the utilization rates of those two assets? And what's the opportunity to continue to increase production?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'll ask Doug Jellison, our EVP of raw materials, to comment. I would just provide maybe a high level first. The flexibility of Nucor's business model has enabled us to pivot. I couldn't be more proud of Doug or David Joseph's team and the entire raw materials team for how they've responded. Because quite frankly, outside of supply chain disruptions that really are inconsequential when we think about the humanitarian crisis that's existing and going on right now in Ukraine, it really pales into comparison. All that being said, the day after the invasion happened, we stopped buying materials immediately from Russia and have taken nothing from them. We pivoted very quickly to other sources around the world. And again, our customers are not going to miss a beat in delivery and/or quality. And so, Doug, maybe just touch on the DRI side and how you see that moving forward?
Douglas Jellison:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. The DRI -- both of our DRI facilities are running well, very, very high world-class reliability rates. We are seeing a little bit of dip as the production went down in the first part of the quarter, and now we're bringing those back up and would expect to run near full capacity in the balance of the year.
Leon Topalian:
Doug, why don't you touch on the flexibility internally of the demand, where we can shift some products?
Douglas Jellison:
Yes, a number of things I'll touch on. So historically, we run about 10% pig iron in our mix, as Leon mentioned in the opening comments. We've adjusted that. Today, we're running about 6% of our mix is pig iron. We also, historically, in our sheet business, run about 25% prime scrap. So the DRI, you can see gives us a very different mix in our profile going into our sheet mills in there. As Leon mentioned, the team has done an outstanding job of really just turning things around literally overnight. And that doesn't happen overnight. That happens from years of investment in training and developing of the team and understanding the market and being able to read the signs and react quickly.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
Carlos De Alba:
So maybe just a follow-up on the metallic mix. What -- how do you complement the rest? If you're right now running around 7% pig iron, 25% prime scrap, how do you see the component of shredded scrap there? And what else can you tell us on that front? And then more broadly, on the cost side, how are you dealing with the cost pressures on the labor side, on the energy front, on the natural gas? What can we expect there going forward?
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Well, let me maybe start with the latter and then, Doug, maybe some other color on the -- as you talk about the raw material, Carlos, we have an incredibly flexible supply base. It really gives us the ability to switch between prime and low copper trade. We're doing a lot of things internally as well as looking at technology externally that continue to move us up, A, from a sustainability standpoint and bringing in or CO2 products into our mix, but also to give ourselves the opportunity to rationalize how do we use that DRI across the Nucor fleet. I think the second part of your question was...
Stephen Laxton:
Yes. Carlos, this is Steve. You're asking about cost and inflation pressure really. And when you think about Nucor, inside of our mills, the metallic is roughly 70% of the cost. And that is typically correlated highly with steel demand. So it's not going to move, in particular, sensitivity to see any kind of inflation indexes or things of that nature. And then when you think about other major cost components, at least, for Nucor, not for steelmaking in general, but because of the efficient, highly variable cost model that we have, it's a little bit different. In our case, energy is a very large portion of that remaining cost. And most of our energy comes from electricity. And most of that is under tariff rate programs and varies from state to state. So there's not a direct and immediate exposure necessarily there. On natural gas, Nucor is extremely well positioned on that. We typically -- we use a hedge program, and we have physical capabilities to produce gas. Those combined to, today, about 50% of our expected needs for 2022, and we're already hedged with about 40% of the expected use for 2023 and 2024. All those prices are well under the current strip prices. That's because of the active hedge program that we've had in place for a number of years. So we're relatively -- we're not immune to inflationary pressures. We certainly see that in freight and other areas, but we are pretty well positioned to manage through these changes.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Steve. Doug, anything you'd add on the raw materials?
Douglas Jellison:
Yes, Carlos, just one more comment on the shred. I don't have a specific number for that because all those numbers change really daily, weekly to give us the optimum cost in it. But what we have worked on, and we've worked on for a number of years, is low copper shred. We've always had a presence in producing low copper shred. But depending on the economics, there's times where it makes more sense than not. And right now, in this market, with the spread between the obsolete grades and the prime grades, it makes a lot more sense. And we're putting a lot more, not only short-term, but long-term development into the low copper shreds, which will again increase our flexibility.
Carlos De Alba:
Understood. And just maybe another question. What are you hearing from the auto guys, your auto customers? We continue to hear the sector is still challenging. They are reducing some production run rate -- production rates. When do you see -- in your conversations, when do you see potentially a pickup on order rates?
Leon Topalian:
Look, a fair question. What I would tell you is, again, we've been in the business for a long time. We have a very, very long-term established relationships with our customers. We know them personally. We know their needs. And again, the investment strategy is to invest not for capacity but for capability. But specifically, to answer your question, Carlos, we're not, as Steve mentioned, immune to recognizing what's happening in the marketplace with inflation, with interest rates. Every one of us has -- and our team driving to the gas stations every day to see the impacts across the U.S., I would tell you, though, that the demand drivers in nonres, in construction, in the digital space, digital warehousing has been sensational. To say it's resilient would be an understatement. And so those jobs are being led daily. And so in many of those cases, our backlogs are at record backlogs, and we're closing the order book because we don't want to go out as far as some of our customers would ask us to. If there's one area that's, again, been slow to come back, obviously, the automotive piece of that is a General, but Nucor continues to gain market share because it's not a huge piece of Nucor's overall mix today. It's in that 5, 6 percentage point range, about 1.5 million, 1.6 million tons a year. We expect to double that in the coming years. But it is really on the energy side. And while you're seeing some signs of life and rig counts moving up somewhat, it's been a much slower recovery out of the pandemic. And that's probably the one area that continues to have some opportunity. But overall, and again, the end markets that we serve, the underlying demand remains incredibly robust.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
Timna Tanners:
So the past couple of months have seen unprecedented volatility. I'm just trying to unpack the way it's impacted Nucor because it's hard for me to contemplate like prices for hot-rolled fell dramatically, then doubled and cost of scrap have gone up unprecedented amounts. And so I'm just trying to think about, if you have a lag in terms of the contract pricing, are you not seeing some of those lower prices for Q1 and to your Q2 numbers? Can you remind us about the mix of that? And can you talk to us a little bit how to think about the scraps sequentially into the second quarter?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll jump in first, and then Rex on the sheet side, and Doug, if there's anything you want to add on the raw materials side. But Timna, typically, we're in that 75% contract rate on our sheet group. So that's the highest contract rate we have in any of our product groups. The sheet demand has been, again, through '21, was unlike anything I've seen in my 25 years. To your point, as we entered 2022, we did see some softening. So softening on pricing, which really drove some of the late Q3, early Q4 import buys that you saw, and then we're seeing now really come into the U.S. market where the delta between hot-rolled coil in the U.S. and the rest of the world was way too high. Again, that recovered or more equalized in the early part of '22. And again, as we maintain our market perspective and how we wanted to serve this market, as Rex and both Allen have played their share, we didn't go out and chase the spot tons. We didn't want to just simply look to bringing tons in if our profitability was going to be impacted. And we just made some other decisions as we looked at the quarter, A, not thinking about market share, but also to look at how do we balance that approach moving forward. So to answer your question, as we've looked through that, Q2 is going to increase profitability. And why we stated already we believe that's going to be a record is largely because of the recovery and how quickly the sheet pricing is going to move through into the order book of Nucor or the bottom line of Nucor. And that's going to happen, again, in weeks instead of months. And again, over the years and in conversations with you, there's been times that lag has been way too long. And again, you're going to see a very quick recovery. The other thing you look at, in Q1 is our breakdown of EBITDA per ton. Our EBITDA per ton, we maximize that value. And I think that's going to reflect very strongly against our competition, and again, flows through to our bottom line for our shareholders. Rex, anything you'd add on the sheet side?
Rex Query:
Timna, very clear on your premise for your question. What I would tell you, if we had seen a protracted and slower decrease, you can see that extend out further possibly on the recovery. But we get such a quick decrease and then rebound that you're going to see the majority of that move through very quickly, as Leon stated, in a matter of weeks versus months. The other thing I would tell you is that the vast majority of our contracts are geared towards monthly mechanisms versus something that's a longer time frame. So we have a small amount that would be quarterly. But again, with the quick decrease in the rebound, that's going to push through pretty quickly. The other that I would say is, Leon mentioned, as we saw the spot pricing decrease, we didn't go in place, take the orders for that. So now as we have that opportunity, the market strengthening, we do have the opportunity to place spot tons at higher pricing than we would have a matter of weeks ago. And so that's actually going to help bolster the price and kick it up even quicker. So that's the -- I understand the premise, but we see it being tempered by how we manage through this.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. That's helpful. And that's a monthly...
Douglas Jellison:
Timna, this is Doug. One other thing that is a little bit different is how we're leveraging our vertical integration, and we have a much tighter tie from commercial operations and raw materials. And the reaction time to prices moving against scrap is much, much quicker than we've seen in other swings. So building on what Rex has said and stuff, we expect that lag to be shorter with this one.
Leon Topalian:
And last point, Timna, is as we've seen throughout the years and decades when scrap prices are really high, so are steel prices. And again, that's what you're seeing today, and that's reflecting in the bottom line.
Timna Tanners:
Got you. And if I could, I have a follow-up, just to understand the answer to Emily's question. And I know you mentioned the commercial strategy, but prices were weak in the first quarter, but demand was strong, from everything I heard from you. If I misunderstood, correct me. But your volumes fell 20% year-over-year in sheet. They're only up like 0.4% despite strong construction and bar products. And like is it -- I'm trying to understand, if prices fall, is Nucor withholding tons? Or is it more about demand? And how do you ramp up Gallatin in an environment where, seasonally, demand slips in the second half? Just trying to square that, if you don't mind.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. No, it definitely was demand. Demand definitely dropped off in Q1 as we saw a softening in the sheet market. So yes, it was not the same environment we saw in Q3 or 4 of '21 at all. Again, pricing was dropping. I think there was some wondering in the market, how long, how protractive, what would that be? And it was a great time for Nucor to capitalize on the maintenance outages that we delayed in many of our sheet mills and get caught up. And again, as pointed out earlier, not to chase tons. And so we didn't do that. And again, a very deliberate mindset on our part to do that. The other piece of that is in the distribution side, as those -- that supply chain side of distribution was full, and they didn't enter the market nearly as aggressively as we would have typically seen in years gone by and the early part of January or February time frame, trying to understand what the market was going to do longer term into the back half of Q1 into Q2. I think, again, that pivot came very quickly and those tons are back and flowing. And so I think you're going to see -- well, I know you're going to see a significant increase in utilization rates across both our sheet and plate groups.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with BNP Paribas.
Seth Rosenfeld:
If I can ask a follow-up with regard to outlook for Gallatin, please. I believe in your prepared remarks, you targeted, I think, 0.5 million tons of shipments in '22 versus prior guidance last quarter of 800,000 tons. Can you give us a bit of color on what has led to this reduction in guidance and then a subsequent ramp-up schedule looking to the later quarters? Probably, if you can give us a bit of color also on Brandenburg and with that ramp in schedule for late '22 and into 2023, what sorts of volumes were you anticipating there?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Great questions. I'm going to turn it to Rex Query and Al Behr to give you a more detailed update on Gallatin and Brandenburg.
Rex Query:
All right. Seth, this is Rex Query with the sheet group. Regarding Gallatin, we had an extended outage as we were in December into January. And we encountered some unique challenges in the demolition, which, frankly, delayed the equipment installed by a few months. So that's the short answer. Our team responded really well, safely, proud of what's been done. And as Leon mentioned in the opening remarks, we'll -- in a matter of weeks, 6, 7 weeks, we'll be fully commissioned with all pieces of the equipment there and operating. So subject to market conditions, we would expect to be running really at nameplate capacity during the third quarter, and that's going to be an additional 500,000 tons, the majority of that during the second half of the year.
Allen Behr:
Seth, this is Allen. On Brandenburg, our team there in Brandenburg continues to do an outstanding job of executing on that project. They've come through COVID, they've come through supply chain issues, and they remain on track for the start-up at the end of the year, and in late Q4 of 2022. In terms of meaningful production tons, I'd expect those in Q1 of '23. I don't have a number to share with you other than to say, that's largely market-dependent. So typically, in the first year of start-up, we aim for a run rate by the end of the year of 3/4 of capacity. But how that looks through the year is determined on where the market sits at that point and how we can respond to it.
Seth Rosenfeld:
And if I have a separate question, please, with regards to steel products. In your prepared remarks, you touched on strength in the construction market. We heard from one of your peers earlier today discussing the really excellent margins you're seeing going into Q2 and then beyond that later quarters of this year. Can you give us a quick update on the strength of that backlog, both in volume and in pricing terms, and how you'd expect margins to develop, not just for Q2, but if you can, later quarters of the year, please?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Certainly, Seth. I'll ask Chad Utermark to comment on that. Just as a backdrop, the performance of our products groups has been spectacular. And again, I couldn't be more proud of how they responded again in what they've done and how they've achieved. And we expect continued great things and improving things as they head throughout the year. But Chad, do you want to provide a little more detail on the products?
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. Seth, this is Chad. As mentioned, we continue to see very solid, seasonally adjusted quoting activity in Q1. And as we head into Q2, and our overall backlogs are very strong, and I would note, with improving margins. Our customers are overwhelmingly bullish on 2022 demand. And I would remind you that a new core portfolio of downstream businesses, it gives us a really good visibility into that space with our rebar fab, steel piling, pre-engineered metal buildings, racking now in the portfolio, steel tubing, we've got insulated metal panels, joist and deck and steel conduit. So yes, overall, we're very excited about what the demand picture looks like as we head into 2022. We've mentioned this before, but I'm still amazed at the strength of the digitized economy, the green economy, they're just strong. They're creating significant demand for distribution centers, warehouses, server storage facilities and EV-related facilities as well. And we're also seeing a manufacturing growth
Stephen Laxton:
Yes. Seth, this is Steve. I just want to add on to Chad's comments here. Our product segment, our downstream steel products group is a meaningful part of our portfolio. And I think that's one of the real differentiators for Nucor versus many people in our space. We offer a wide array of end market solutions. And just in the last quarter, that group contributed just over $760 million in EBITDA, to give you a sense of scale on that. And we project that the second quarter will be even stronger. So that's a real lever and a positive attribute of our portfolio that some folks don't have.
Operator:
We'll take our last caller from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curtis Woodworth:
Just wanted to follow up -- just wanted to follow up a little bit on the Steel Products segment as well. I know you've done a fair amount of acquisitions in that business. So I guess, when you look at the backlog and kind of the long-term earnings power of the business, do you feel like the 1Q run rate is fair? And then in terms of 2Q, just given your guiding to earnings being up even though you've got some spread compression potentially in the long product side of the portfolio, it seems to imply that EBITDA would be up pretty significantly in the Steel Products business. I was wondering if you could give any more granularity on that? That's my first question.
Stephen Laxton:
Yes. Thank you, Curt. We're not going to guide to a specific target EBITDA for that group at this point in time. We provide quantitative guidance much later in the quarter. But we will say that the end market demand is strong across the board and backlogs are strong. I think you've heard that already from us today. And again, these businesses are ones that are very responsive in terms of their ability to generate upside cash flow benefits to the company when markets are strong. So I think that's one of the things that -- the highly variable nature of the cost of these products and these groups are differentiated in many ways.
Rex Query:
I would just add that the -- typically, due to seasonality, the run rates will pick up as we move into second and third quarter. Construction projects are in full swing, and again, the backlog is strong. So again, we have many different businesses, so I'm careful when I say in general. But overall, I would expect to see some of the run rates in most of our businesses pick up some.
Leon Topalian:
And Curt, you mentioned longs. I'll just provide a very quick comment on longs. If you think about the 10-year history, like our beam mill, for example, probably averaged 70% utilization over the last decade. As we entered in 2021, that increased over 90%. And so that beam mill and that market leadership position we have in structurals creates an incredible earning power. And again, that demand and those drivers remain very strong, both in beams and rebar and most of our longs businesses that are generating incredible returns for our company.
Curtis Woodworth:
Okay. And then with respect to M&A, would you expect to continue to deploy more capital into the Steel Products segment? And then are you evaluating any potential increased investments, let's say, further DRI or other sorts of ways to get more captive pig iron prime scrap?
Leon Topalian:
Look, as we continue to, again, set the first quarter record, as we set record earnings in 2021 at over $6 billion of earnings, we're continually looking for ways to deploy that capital. As Steve laid out earlier in his comments about our capital allocation framework and philosophy, it is, first, to reinvest in growth, and we're going to do that in a multitude of ways. Our mission statement is 8 words
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. As we conclude the call today, I just want to thank our team for your continued focus and delivering on our most important value, the safety, health and well-being of all 30,000 men and women who make up the Nucor family. To our customers, thank you. Thank you for the trust that you place in the Nucor team with every order. Our investment strategy is to build the capabilities to serve you today and well into the future. And finally, to our shareholders, thank you for the trust that you place in us with your valuable shareholder capital. We look to steward that well, maximizing your returns. Thank you for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and welcome to our 2021 fourth quarter and full year earnings call. Joining me on the call today are several members of Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Doug Jellison, responsible for Raw Materials and Logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services; and our General Counsel; Dan Needham, responsible for Bar, Rebar Fabrication and Engineered Bar Products; Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Commercial Strategy; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. By so many measures, 2021 was an extraordinary year for Nucor. Our team delivered incredible financial and operating results over the course of the year, while working safely and responsibly. Every single day, our nearly 29,000 team members remain focused on our company's mission to grow our core steelmaking capabilities while expanding our presence into related businesses that fit with our culture and leverage our strengths. For our team, the most important value is safety. And so, I'm incredibly pleased to report that 2021 was the safest year in our history. Becoming the world's safest steel company is a lofty goal, and our team has now achieved back-to-back record years in safety. Nucor had 16 divisions that went zero recordable injuries in 2021, and I look forward to the day when our entire company achieves that same goal. I want to thank each of my Nucor team members for your daily commitment to safety, looking out for one another and I look forward to an even safer year in 2022. Turning to our fourth quarter results. Earnings per share were $7.97, exceeding our guidance range of $765 million to $775 million. This represents another new quarterly record for our company. Looking at 2021 as a whole, we set several other financial records. Net income for 2021 was $6.8 billion, and full year earnings per share was $23.16, which were both notable increases over the prior records we set in 2018 with $2.4 billion of net income and an EPS of $7.42. Our record financial performance is the result of years of work reinvesting to strategically position and grow our portfolio of capabilities across the steel value chain. We are leveraging our competitive advantage to aggressively and opportunistically pursue value-enhancing long-term growth. Along the way, we are delivering a differentiated value proposition to our customers and expanding our relationships with them. By executing operationally across our business lines, and in parallel, investing in Nucor's future, we are generating attractive returns for our shareholders and positively impacting our local communities. In the process, we can offer Nucor teammates secure employment and competitive compensation and benefits as well as the opportunities to further their professional growth and development. Our talented, dedicated team members are Nucor's greatest value creators. Reflecting this for 2021, our profit sharing totaled about $850 million. Adding this amount to teammate profit sharing over the course of the last five decades, Nucor has allocated a total of about $3.8 billion in profit sharing to our team members. Most profit-sharing payments are contributed directly to teammates' retirement savings accounts. And as a result, we believe that Nucor teammates are far more prepared for retirement than the average American. Of course, we are also mindful of our responsibility to shareholders. We're proud to have been able to provide cash returns via dividends and share repurchases totaling about $3.8 billion in 2021 and in December to increase our regular quarterly dividend for the 49th year in a row, this year by 23% to a rate of $0.50 per quarter. Our quarterly dividend is now about 32% higher than it was in 2018. We reduced our share count by more than 11% in 2021, even as we funded capital expenditures and acquisitions totaling approximately $3 billion to drive the next chapter of our growth story. And as Jim will share, we remain very well capitalized and able to pursue our objectives. And speaking of those, as we move into 2022, we are not letting up when it comes to executing our strategy to grow our value-added product portfolio and expand into new product markets and geographic regions. Two weeks ago, we announced that Mason County, West Virginia will be the location of our new state-of-the-art 3 million-ton sheet mill. The location along the Ohio River provides Nucor with important transportation and logistics advantages in serving the country's two largest sheet steel-consuming regions, the Midwest and Northeast. Two areas where Nucor is currently underrepresented, once operational, our West Virginia mill will have some of the most advanced capabilities in one of the lowest carbon footprints of any sheet mill in the world. We are very excited to begin work with the local community in Mason County on this transformational project that will create substantial long-term value for all Nucor shareholders. On December 16, our Nucor Steel Arkansas sheet mill produced its first prime coil from its new generation three flexible galvanizing line. The new galvanizing line, combined with Hickman's highly successful specialty cold rolling mill that's been in operation for more than two years, uniquely positions our company among North American EAF steelmakers to provide the high strength, lightweight steels that are increasingly in demand. These capabilities represent important competitive advantages for our company, exemplifying Nucor's ability to meet the needs of our customers for hiring steels. Congratulations to the entire Nucor Arkansas team. Another sheet mill project, Nucor Steel Gallatin's hot band modernization and expansion, is beginning to start up in the current quarter. This project gives Gallatin's new mill, thicker slab casting and wider coil capabilities, expanding our product portfolio into markets currently served by higher cost competitors. Our Gallatin team members continue to impress with their ability to safely construct the expansion project within the environment of an operating mill, and we look forward to its continued ramp up. We are also expanding our presence in the Western U.S. In December, we announced an agreement to acquire a majority ownership stake of 51% in California Steel Industries for about $400 million. CSI is a flat-rolled converter with annual capacity to produce more than 2 million tons of finished steel and steel products. This investment, which is expected to close shortly, expands our geographic reach in the sheet market, grows our portfolio of value-added sheet products and enables us to supply Nucor's downstream businesses in the region, including Verco and the recently acquired Hannibal industries. We are very excited to partner here with JFE Steel Corporation on our second joint venture. Switching to the plate market. Our Brandon Burk Kentucky greenfield mill is on track to begin rolling its first steel plate product in the fourth quarter of this year. With the capability to manufacture nearly all the different types of plate products consumed in the United States, Brandenburg will position Nucor as a supplier of choice in the domestic plate market which includes applications in offshore wind, heavy equipment, construction and military. Finally, I would also like to mention a new project in our bar mill group. In December, we announced our plan to build a new rebar micro mill with annual capacity of 430,000 tons in the South Atlantic region. This will be Nucor's third rebar micro mill joining micro mills in Missouri and Florida that began operations in 2020. We are currently evaluating potential sites and are excited about this opportunity, to grow our profitable leadership position in rebar, a core business for Nucor throughout the last 50 years. I'm extremely proud of all of our teammates who are working so hard on all these projects as they are prime examples of Nucor's continued execution of our mission to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. And before I leave this topic, I just want to note that we believe we are seeing an acceleration of a transformation in our industry that has been underway for decades, forces driving economic efficiency and lower emissions in steelmaking. No North American producer is better positioned than Nucor to continue leading in these areas. With our team's disciplined focus on execution and Nucor's financial and operational strength, we expect to realize very attractive returns on our investments. We're very proud that Nucor has helped make the United States the cleanest place in the world to make steel. The green economy is being built on steel, and the steel it's built on matters. We are also capitalizing on the opportunity to supply the sustainable steel that is building our 21st century economy. Earlier this month, we shipped our very first coil of Econiq to General Motors after having just launched this new line of steels this past October. Our Econiq offering represents the world's first ever net zero carbon steel available at scale. We look forward to continuing to offer Econiq to more customers and, of course, lower greenhouse gas emission steel across our product portfolio. Nucor will continue to be a key part of our modern economy by supplying the most advanced and sustainable steel products needed to rebuild America's infrastructure. We are pleased that our leaders came together in the fourth quarter to pass historic bipartisan infrastructure legislation that will help advance and modernize U.S. infrastructure and strengthen the health of our economy by creating opportunities for American workers. With approximately half of Nucor's products going into the construction market, we stand ready to help our country meet its infrastructure needs. We also continue to work with the administration and members of Congress to enforce our trade laws so that our market is free from the distortions caused by unfairly traded imports in that as we reinvest in our infrastructure, we do so with steel produced in America, the highest quality, cleanest steel possible. And before I turn the call over to Jim, I'd like to congratulate the entire Nucor team on reaching new heights to achieve our safest and most profitable year in company's history. You have much to be proud of and on behalf of myself and our entire executive team. Thank you. Team let's keep up our focus in 2022. And of course, for Nucor, that begins with the value of safety. We have much to look forward to as we progress throughout this New Year. Now, Jim will provide more details about our fourth quarter and full year performance. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. As Leon mentioned, fourth quarter of 2021 earnings of $7.97 per diluted share established a new quarterly record, eclipsing the prior record of $7.28 per share established in last year's third quarter. Fourth quarter earnings also exceeded our guidance range of $7.65 to $7.75 per diluted share. Better-than-expected results for the month of December were achieved across a broad group of businesses. Record full year net income of $6.8 billion was driven by Nucor's diverse portfolio of products and capabilities. Profitability records were set by numerous businesses, including Nucor sheet mills, rebar and merchant bar mills, engineered bar mills, plate mills, structural mills, joist and deck, tubular products, cold finished bars and fasteners. Nucor's product breadth continues to be a powerful driver of value creation through the cycle for both our customers and shareholders. While our 2021 performance unquestionably benefited from an exceptionally strong steel industry up cycle, Nucor's results were also fueled by our team's focus and commitment to safely meeting our customers' needs. Disciplined execution of our growth strategy over the years is a significant factor underlying our success. For example, five major greenfield projects completed commissioning and start-up over the 2019 through 2020 time period. They are the rolling mill modernization at our Ohio rebar mill, the hot band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill, the specialty cold rolling mill at our Arkansas sheet mill, the rebar micro mill in Missouri and the rebar micro mill in Florida. These projects represent an aggregate capital investment of just over $1 billion. For the full year of 2021, they generated EBITDA totaling $674 million. Our teammates at these facilities have done stellar work, executing across the board on safety, product quality and financial performance. Cumulative EBITDA already exceeds the investment outlays for the Gallatin galvanizing line and the Ohio rebar mill modernization. The cumulative EBITDA generated by the Hickman specialty cold mill is nearing that project's capital investment. First year EBITDA for the Missouri and Florida rebar micro mills are multiples of what we originally projected in our project return budgets. Two more major capital projects totaling just over $1 billion have entered start-up in late 2021 and early 2022. These investments meaningfully enhance Nucor's sheet product capabilities. They are the expansion and modernization of the Gallatin sheet mill and the generation three flexible galvanizing line at the Hickman sheet mill. We look forward to introducing our new capabilities to strategic customers as the year progresses, and we are excited about the returns expected to be generated for our shareholders as these projects ramp up. While 2021 clearly revealed the earnings and cash generation power of Nucor's businesses, it also provided an opportunity for us to fully demonstrate Nucor's balanced capital allocation framework. As most of you know, we are committed to first investing for profitable growth while maintaining our strong investment-grade credit rating and returning capital to our shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases, a minimum of 40% of net income over time. When we judge that strong free cash flow is causing us to become overcapitalized, we will typically distribute more than 40% of our net income to shareholders. Capital returns have averaged 58% of net income over the five-year period ending in 2021. And they were 55% of Nucor's net income for the year of 2021. 2021 capital returns consisted of dividends of $483 million and share repurchases of just under $3.3 billion. The share repurchases totaled more than 33.8 million shares at an average cost of about $97 per share. These returns were, of course, funded by our strong cash provided by operating activities, also a new record of $6.2 billion. Other significant uses of cash during the year were capital spending of $1.6 billion, expansion of working capital mainly receivables and inventory net of payables totaling approximately $3.3 billion and acquisitions of about $1.4 billion. We remain well capitalized with excellent liquidity. At year-end, gross debt as a percentage of total capital was approximately 28%, while net debt was about 14% of total capital. Our cash, short-term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled about $2.8 billion at year-end. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.75 billion unsecured revolving credit facility. In November, we increased the capacity by $250 million and extended the maturity date to November of 2026. Given the state of our balance sheet, near-term investment plans and our expectations for earnings, we anticipate that we will continue returning excess capital to our shareholders during the first quarter of 2022, very likely via continued share repurchases. Our analysis suggests that Nucor's shares are significantly undervalued relative to our risk profile earnings and cash flow generation capacity. For 2022, we project capital spending of approximately $2.3 billion. Growth projects for improved product capabilities and expansion represent about 75% of our expected capital spending for this year. These include the Kentucky plate mill, the West Virginia sheet mill, the South Atlantic rebar micro mill and Gallatin's tubular products facility. Maintenance capital spending for equipment replacement spares and cost savings projects accounts for the roughly 25% remaining. We currently expect capital expenditures over the next three years to total approximately $5.5 billion. Turning to the outlook. We are confident that 2022 will be another year of strong profitability for Nucor, fueled by continued strong end-use market demand for a wide range of steel and steel products, better margins in our steel products segment as pricing is now caught up with higher steel input costs and lower intercompany inventory revaluation expenses reflecting flatter steel and raw material costs compared to 2021. Focusing on the quarter, we expect consolidated net earnings attributable to Nucor shareholders will be slightly reduced from the fourth quarter of 2021's record results. Diluted earnings per share for the first quarter of 2022 will benefit from lower weighted average shares outstanding. Steel mills segment earnings are expected to decline in the first quarter of 2022 due to decreased profitability of our sheet mills, offsetting increased profitability at our long products mills. The steel products segment is expected to achieve further margin expansion and profitability in the first quarter of 2022 as backlog pricing continues to improve. The raw materials segment is expected to improve slightly in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 due to the improved profitability of our DRI facilities, partially offset by the impact of lower scrap prices on our scrap brokerage and processing operations. Before we go to Q&A, I would like to just take a moment to highlight our Board's action to increase Nucor's base dividend for the 49th consecutive year affected with the February 11 payment. I hope you'll agree that this is an impressive track record. Our team has great determination to continue our record of delivering increased long-term value for our shareholders. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Sathish Kasinathan with Deutsche Bank.
Sathish Kasinathan:
Congrats on a strong set of financial results as well as the safety record. My first question is on the steel mill segment. You mentioned that you expect earnings to decline due to the lower flat roll margins, but I was just wondering if you could talk about the order entry rate in January and how you see the volumes for the first quarter. And also, can you talk about the ramp-up profile at Gallatin and the total incremental volumes you expect from the mill for the current quarter as well as the full year?
Leon Topalian:
Okay, Sathish. I'll start this off and maybe Jim or Rex Query, EVP over our sheet group, can touch on the Gallatin expansion. Look, number one, to begin with, as we mentioned in Jim's comments that we do expect primarily because of sheet pricing, our steel mills segment to be a little off in terms of profitability. But it's important to remember as well that's coming off a historic year. And in particular, if we think about our sheet group and their performance, the sheet group set a record in terms of shipments at over 11 million tons, generated over $6 billion in EBITDA performance. And if you think about Nucor's 55% return on equity, a large piece of that was attributable because of the sheet group. And so as we move forward, the short-term inflection that we're seeing both in pricing as well as some of the volumes we think are a short-term factor. They're based on imports and obviously, what we saw in the third quarter in terms of buying patterns where the spread between HRC, domestically and internationally, was at an all-time high. We had -- the industry really catch up in terms of order entry rates and deliveries. So, the supply chain got full, very quickly, and maybe even some overbuying. And then couple that with the supply chain constraints, labor constraints and the Omicron variant raging all created for a little bit of a perfect storm here in the fourth quarter heading into early part of 2022. But again, the outlook and the demand picture across every end market that Nucor serves remains very robust. And again, we think this is going to work through the inventory rebalancing and position us well as we move forward.
Jim Frias:
Yes. And for Gallatin and Rex, you can add to this if you'd like to. It's just going to have the capacity over the year to give us an incremental 800,000 to 900,000 tons. But the way the market is right now, we're going to start off at a much slower pace in the first quarter, and it's going to depend on market demand. We're not just going to make steel enforcement in the marketplace if we can't sell it at a reasonable price, Rex?
Rex Query:
Yes, just some additional detail on Gallatin. As far as the outage we had, we're on target coming up. The expectation, as Jim mentioned, approximately 800,000 tons additional for the year. We'll measure that ramp-up during the first quarter with what we see on demand. There's no need to ramp that up any quicker than we need. Full -- there's additional work to be done, which is part of the plan. So in March, we'll commission the EAF, LMF and the caster. And by the end of March, we'll be capable of full production at that point with a wider strip and a thicker slab. But we're going to keep an eye on the market and really measure that ramp-up as we see what market conditions are doing at Gallatin.
Sathish Kasinathan:
Okay. Thank you for the color. And then my second question is on the steel products segment. So you mentioned that you expect margin expansion in the first quarter. But can you talk about the size and duration of your backlogs currently and provide a bit more color on how you see the margin profile through the remainder of the year? We should see some strong tailwind from lower input costs. So just any color you can provide. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Sathish, I'll kick this off and ask Chad Utermark, our Executive Vice President of Products, to really add some color in there. But if I think back to -- even in the height of the pandemic in 2020, that business segment remain incredibly robust. That has continued, and we see that continuing moving forward. The commentary that we made towards the returns and the strength that we anticipate in 2022 as the input cost level will come down, the margin expansion will certainly continue well into '22. And so Chad, why don't you add some commentary behind some of that on backlogs?
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thank you, Leon. And as Leon mentioned, as we talked about in the script, we believe non-res construction will remain very strong as we enter 2022 and even beyond. We continue to see solid seasonal adjusted quoting activity. So as we look across our broad portfolio of downstream products, it's really solid quoting activity that's ongoing. And if you combine that with our backlogs that are very robust and in some cases, they are all-time record backlogs. So that's one data set that we look at. The second and very important data set we look at is what our customers are saying. And our customers are overwhelmingly bullish on their 2022 demand. And I would ask that you remember, our growth through the years in downstream steel products allows Nucor to have a very good visibility into the demand of construction products such as rebar fab, steel piling, pre-engineered metal buildings, racking, steel tubing, insulated panel, joist and deck, steel conduit. So as we look and analyze that demand from this broad nonres construction base, we are very excited about what 2022 holds. And as far as the margins in our backlog, they're solid. We believe that pricing is solid. We don't see many of any cancellations. And I would also say that the strong backlog margins is not predicated on falling steel prices that could be coming at us. These are healthy margins due to the supply and the strong demand and balance that's out there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
Carlos De Alba:
Thanks for taking the question. So first, if you could comment as to how you see capacity utilization in your different key products, particularly in Q1, and maybe how you see the progression into Q2 and the second half of the year, if you have visibility, given your backlog. Second question, if I may, is given the $5.5 billion in CapEx over the next three years, I mean, some of that already clearly is ongoing with projects that you are executing, but how do you see the returns on these investments? Any sense of the incremental EBITDA that you could generate from these projects? That would be great.
Rex Query:
Yes. I'll start, Carlos. First, regarding capacity utilizations, we don't break those out typically in detail by business. But if we think about overall volumes in the first quarter, it's probably going to be slightly up because of seasonality in the first quarter. Sheet could be slightly down whereas other products we would think would more than offset them, in general. And we would see that volumes would probably improve from that level in the second quarter because there are winter factors with weather and stuff that affects some of the shipments. And also Omicron is affecting supply chains. And maybe at the end, I'll make some comments about the year that are more global about what we're thinking about regarding the economic impacts from Nucor. But relative to CapEx and benefits, we do -- when we announce each project, we generally give some sort of when it's a major project. We give some sort of EBITDA run rate -- so I'll go back and read our earnings release that we published about each of the major projects and see that data -- and we may, at some point, come out with something more formal, where we recap a number of projects that are coming nearing completion and give what the cumulative EBITDA benefit is. But in my remarks, I talked about what we're seeing real time in 2021 in EBITDA from the projects that were recently completed. Okay. Does that make sense?
Carlos De Alba:
Yes, that makes sense.
Leon Topalian:
So first, relative to the year because part of your question gets into what to expect for the year. And I think there's two important areas to think about. One is what our earnings is going to be and what is our free cash flow going to be and that those are the things that I think interests you most. And it starts with end market demand. We've already touched on this, but end market demand remains strong. And it's -- the heart of it is non-res construction, biggest user of steel, but we're still not benefiting yet. Auto is still down. Auto is still down because of chips, and auto will ramp up until later this year. And so we're going to see increased demand from auto. We're not seeing the benefits from the infrastructure building, that's still coming. So over and all, we think about end-use demand for steel will be up in '22 over '21, and there are some important pieces that are not benefiting us in the first quarter this year that are still coming. So that's the starting point. Secondly, you've touched on -- others have touched on this already. We've got the largest downstream products businesses of any of the steel companies. And they were getting margins squeezed for all of last year and pricing has finally started to catch up. There's still businesses that have more room to go in terms of expanding their margins and getting prices cut it because of the size of what their backlogs to be. And so, we expect to see margin expansion in the first quarter and beyond for those businesses. So that's a positive. Again, the next is going to be the incremental benefits from the ramp of three major projects
Operator:
Our next question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.
Emily Chieng:
Congratulations on a strong update today. My first question is just around the capital allocation. And I think last year, you shared that you've been able to execute both growth and a significant amount of capital return. How could we think about that balance going forward in 2022? And what does the next chapter of your growth strategy look like?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Emily, I'll start off, and thanks for the question. As we mentioned and have talked previously, our mission is very simple. It's a word. It's to grow the core, expand beyond and live our culture. If we think about the core of our steelmaking capabilities, it's the expansions of regional and capabilities. It's not about adding capacity. So the acquisition of CSI for us and having JFE as a second partnership in California and again, a majority shareholder in that operation is really exciting for us. The announcement of our rebar micro mill will continue our market leadership position in rebar. The new mill in West Virginia, we are incredibly excited about because, again, it provides a long-term differentiated value proposition for our customers that have been asking for in need. And if you think about the move in the time over the last 24 to 36 months and what's going on in ESG, the world the sustainability side of our industry is paramount. And again, Nucor is incredibly well positioned as one of the cleanest steelmakers in the world to offer the steels like we just did to General Motors. So that is going to continue. You're going to see Nucor continue to grow our capability. The second piece of that is the expanding beyond, beyond the traditional bounds of our steelmaking range. And those projects like Hannibal Industries in racking, like CENTRIA and Metl-Span to give us a market leadership position today in the insulated metal panels. That is all about the digital economy. As we think about what's happening in warehousing, data storage, cold storage, that is a booming industry that really is insulated from the traditional cyclicality of steelmaking. And so, you're going to see Nucor continue to move and invest in projects where we can combine our culture, our strong balance sheet and our investment strategy and deploying capital that will greatly exceed our cost of capital goals to return to our shareholders. Jim, anything you'd add?
Jim Frias:
The only thing I would add, Emily, is that when we think about returning capital to investors, that portion of it, it's going to start with 40% of our earnings. And that's going to be a pretty good number in the first quarter. And -- but we do use an intrinsic value model that we show the Board every quarter. There's a very disciplined process. We published our net debt to capital range that we want to live in to maintain our strong investment-grade credit rating, that's 18% to 22%. We're below that right now. And so we would expect that we need to keep investing and returning capital investors both. And we have the capacity to do both as we go forward. The other thing, Leon, that regarding growth is we are likely to have another announcement next week on a growth initiative that's in the pipeline. That's again to add capabilities around our product mix. Do you want to talk about that at all?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks again. Stay tuned in the coming days, we will announce as we think about our portfolio and our weighting, particularly around sheet, moving up the value chain and expanding our offering in galvanized and painting. Again, in the coming days, you'll see another announcement we're very excited about that. We'll continue to move us in that direction and again, providing a better rounding out of that value added in our sheet products businesses.
Emily Chieng:
Got it, that's very helpful and look forward to an update. My second question just very quickly is around the integration progress you've made at some of your recently acquired businesses, including Hannibal and IMP. Perhaps give us a sense of how they are trending relative to expectations today. I'll leave it at that.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks, Emily. I'm going to turn this one to Rex Query, our EVP of our Sheet and Tubular, who's over at the Hannibal Industries, and then maybe Chad touched on our CENTRIA and Metl-Span.
Rex Query:
Emily, thanks for the question. Hannibal Industries, our first step into the racking side. And obviously, we look for companies that are successful is our first approach for Nucor. Hannibal has been very successful, but also just a cultural fit in the first place. So integration to us, we look at that leadership and if an existing company and we evaluate that fit as well. And so that's what we found in Hannibal. They have a couple of operations, California, Houston, the leadership we've had there, really just spectacular fitting well with our company. We hired a -- or shifted a General Manager, existing General Manager of Nucor over that business. But we're really pulling that group in to get them to understand Nucor, integrate in, look at our production bonus system and how we incorporate that. But it's very much step in, learn as much about their business as well. I'll also comment on Hannibal and the racking, that leadership team, and that includes the existing there and the ones we've added from Nucor. They're tasked with growing that business. So we're already evaluating acquisition potential, greenfield potential in the racking business. So we stepped into that business for the purposes of growing and growing further geographically and expanding our capabilities there.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. We're very excited just like Rex said, about Hannibal, but especially in the IMP space and Leon mentioned about that space. And I want to actually want to talk a little bit more about it. But we're excited about the Cornerstone IMP acquisition, the team that we now have. The insulated metal panel space has been attractive to Nucor for a long time, and we were excited back in 2019 to purchase a start-up company called TrueCore and we're equally excited to welcome the Cornerstone IMP team into Nucor. We are working diligently through the integration and onboarding process. While we face some short-term challenges with chemical supply and a portion of inadequately priced backlog at the time of acquisition, we're still very excited about our future in IMP. And again, just why IMP? First of all, there is significant growth. I think Leon mentioned it earlier in this controlled environmental facilities, e-commerce, data centers, food, medicine. Furthermore, building codes across the country for commercial and industrial buildings continue to be more stringent and insulated panels are one of the best solutions out there in the construction market to achieve those thermal requirements. More and more companies, as you guys know, developers and owners see the value and are focusing on the E and ESG. And we've also watched the growth of IMP in Europe. And we believe the U.S. market, while currently about $1 billion market for IMP, we believe that could grow in excess of $2 billion. So still onboarding, still integrating. We got a few challenges to work through, but excited about the future.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Chad. And I'll just close and saying, hey, we welcome the Hannibal team and insulated metal panel team to the Nucor family. And again, excited about the opportunities of those businesses will bring in the years to come.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with BNP Paribas Exane.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I have two questions. First on plate and then I'll follow up later on green steel, please. On the plate market, obviously, plate prices have been remarkably resilient the last couple of weeks even a sheet has fallen a accelerating rate. Can you just give us a bit of color on what you're seeing specifically supporting the plate market today? What's unique in that supply-demand balance? How sustainable is that? In the past, we've seen a pretty tight relationship in plate in hot rolled. Do you think that can break out right now? Or is there a reason to be more concerns looking into the middle of the year for plate? I'll start there, please.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, great question, Seth. I'm going to kick that to Al Behr, our EVP of our Plate and Structural Group now.
Al Behr:
Thanks, Seth. I appreciate the question. I don't know that I'd add a lot more than what we've talked about as a consistent drumbeat around demand. The pricing for our product is always driven by demand. And what we see in the plate market, I'd highlight three key markets for us. One is non-residential construction. We've talked about that quite a bit. Our visibility into that market is extremely good, and the demand picture is very strong. Another key market would be heavy equipment, industrial equipment. That market is very strong right now. If there's any indication of weakness that's around supply chain and not true consumption and demand at the OEMs. The final market I would highlight would be energy, broadly energy, which includes renewables as well as oil and gas. Oil and gas has been a bit weaker in the last couple of years, and that with oil prices today is growing by the day. So that really is what it comes down to Seth. It's just a very solid demand picture. Our crystal ball gets pretty buzzy when we look out very much past the next month or so. We don't know what the rest of the year will bring, but we're optimistic about the plate market. The demand in key markets is very good. And we instituted a published price in August of 2020, and that's a relevant price. We're committed to keeping that as a relevant price that's transactionally based. And as we need to move that according to the supply and demand in the markets, we will do that. But what direction that may go is just tough for us to tell, then the demand is good, and we're encouraged.
Seth Rosenfeld:
A separate question, please, on Econiq for the green steel brand. First, congrats on your first delivery to GM. Can you give us a bit more color on the scale of volume growth you think could be achievable, say, in the next one to two years? And then on the pricing side, obviously, demand is perhaps growing very rapidly right now. Supply is very tight. What's the degree of pricing power you're able to achieve compared to any cost escalation perhaps as you adjust raw materials mix or power supply?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks, Seth. And we're excited about Econiq. Again, this, again, more recent transformation over the last two, three, four years, and moving into a much more sustainable place, Nucor is, again, I think, been ahead of the curve. We've done things that many in our industry have not. We've got two virtual power purchase agreements today that because of our balance sheet allow us to be able to do those things. We're starting out with a carbon intensity that is 3x or 4x lower than some of our integrated competitors. So we begin from a platform of great strength and again, a commitment to be even stronger and even cleaner. So we've announced a 35% reduction target by 2030. That will bring us to about a 0.37, 0.38 tons of CO2 per ton of steel produced, which, again, in the world, numbers is incredibly low. So it enables Nucor to offer what we did to General Motors a few weeks ago in the first coil of net zero steel to their factory. That being said, what I would tell you, again, in the two -- just over two years I've been CEO, that demand picture is changing markedly, literally day-to-day. So it's not just the major OEMs in automotive now that are asking for it. We're seeing many of our construction, many of our OEM partners outside of automotive that are beginning to ask for this. And so I'm not going to detail out what the value is. I would tell you that, that value increases as we move forward because many of our end customers cannot achieve their end stated goals of their carbon footprint reduction targets without an incoming steel that is significantly lower than most of the world averages. So what I would tell you is there is value there today. Make no mistake. That value will continue to increase. And we'll see how that moves through over the next 8, 10, 12 and 24 months in terms of the amount of steel that Nucor participates in and how fast we escalate that, but we kind of control that. We have the opportunity to continue to enhance that and do what's required to meet that demand picture.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to ask a bit about your visibility into the first quarter now that lead times are a lot shorter. Can you talk a little bit about how good your visibility is for sheet in particular and what you're looking for in order to ramp up Gallatin, like what conditions? Is it demand? Is it price or both?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll start, and Rex, maybe if you want to add some color. Look, I think with the Gallatin expansion, as Jim mentioned, and possibly Rex, we're going to be disciplined in that ramp up. At the same time, balancing out we've invested a lot of money. So we want to make sure that equipment is ready and available as we progress out. So, that team is working feverishly to bring its capability to where we need. At the same time, I would tell you over the last 12 or 18 months, particularly as we've moved through the last contract season, Nucor has been very disciplined about our approach into the marketplace and how we want to transact. So as Jim mentioned a few minutes ago, we're not going to flood the market just because we want to produce the steel out of Gallatin, and we're going to have a very measured approach and a very deliberate approach into the marketplace. So I expect that we're going to scale up. As we've mentioned throughout the call, we used to track and share, I think, the numbers of end markets. And we track virtually every end market that you can imagine. Of all the end markets we look at, virtually every one of them is projected to grow. In fact, our estimated growth for full year 2022 is about 6% in terms of overall shipment increase. So, we see that as an opportunity. And again, we expect Gallatin to continue to ramp up and meet its objectives and hit the nameplate investment, which is about 1.4 million tons of additional capacity. But Rex, any other color you'd like to share in terms of that ramp-up?
Rex Query:
Yes, Timna, thanks for the question. Regarding the visibility, we have good visibility. I mean we talk with our customers weekly. And with the correction that we're seeing right now on the sheet side with what you see in some of the pricing, what led up to that is we entered 2020 with COVID, and things started to contract and shut down. And 2021 was the recovery, so to speak, from that standpoint. So you saw demand increase considerably pricing runoff. That's an opportunity as that demand is increasing for some import to come in. And that's what we've seen as we come in late in the year and we see some of that correction occurring. But the thing we keep hearing right now is this is short-term temporal correction in the underlying demand, much like Al mentioned in those sectors. Those are key sectors, the automotive sector that Jim Frias mentioned as well. What we hear from our customers is they do expect 2022 overall to be a fairly strong year from demand. So that's what we hear from our customers. We see this temporal correction. And as Leon just stated about Gallatin, it's really an opportunity as we're getting some work done there. That team has been in a construction mode for quite some time now. So we're able to ramp that up as we see fit. And so what will we be looking for? We're going to be looking for that demand. It's not a price standpoint. It's the demand we're going to make sure we take care of and service our customers.
Jim Frias:
Timna, the one thing I would add to that is keep in mind, we're a bit more hot band centric than some of our competitors, and that's where most of the imports have come in. And as you look at what we've done over the past few years, we've been adding galvanizing lines. We're wrapping one up at Arkansas right now. We started one up at Gallatin the year before that. We've got one in Mexico now that's consuming substrate -- part of the substrate comes out of our Berkeley mill. And we're getting ready to announce another galvanized line soon. So we recognize that, that's a part of our portfolio that would perform better for were quite so weighted to hot band. So, we expect to keep doing things to try and deal with that. But that's one of the reasons why we're being impacted, the way we are is our reliance on the hot band market.
Timna Tanners:
That makes sense. My other question was just on contracts into 2022. I know that there was a lot of chatter about moving to shrink the discounts against CRU. And in the past, you've helped us understand Nucor's breakdown of contract business and how to think about it. So I was wondering if you could update us on how those contract negotiations went now that they're over. And any changes in your exposure to automotive, please?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll start with the automotive, and then Rex, you can update on the contracts. For a long time, we've been in that 1.5 million to 1.6 million ton a year range in the automotive side. Our expectation and our stated goals are to double that to around 3 million tons. And so what I would tell you, in a year that was way off because of the chip shortages in 2021 somewhere in that 12.5 million, 13 million units. Nucor's share in automotive grew, and that is going to continue to grow. And so I can tell you, there's a lot of excitement about Nucor's capabilities being the first EAF to be able to produce a full generation three steel in Hickman as well as what the opportunity and capability of the West Virginia sheet mill will be able to do in terms of transforming a differentiated clean steel, net zero steels into the OEMs. And so, we're committed to move there. At the same time, our goals are not to get overly weighted. We're not looking to move to 20% or 25% of our overall mix in automotive. But to be in the 10% to 12% range, I think, is probably about the right number today. Rex, do you want to touch on contracts?
Rex Query:
Yes. I'll finish up on the Hickman galv line. Really, just pleased with what's occurred there, the start-up of that. It's going to be an automotive capable and focused galv line with the additional or the extra high strength. So, we'll be able to feed into that. So that's a step for sure into that. And the new Midwest mill, as Leon mentioned. Automotive is going to be a significant portion of what we look for in that business for that. So you'll see that growth occurring. On the contract side, we're contract season, I would say was what we expected, we had going into it some strength in the marketplace from a demand standpoint. So, the things from great extra, some of those things, but we're discuss with our customers, but at the same time, you got to look at the total package, if you will, of what they see as value. So it's more than just what those pieces are. It's price, but it's delivery, it's service. So our contract season for us, we finished very typical with what we target for contract percents, both on the service center side as well as overall. So, we're in the 80% range and overall target for us. So fairly typical from a volume standpoint as we finish up contract season for heading into 2022.
Leon Topalian:
And we had very few customers that chose not to renew. Isn't that correct?
Rex Query:
Yes. In fact, I would tell you, we had more requests for increased volume. So I've seen some of the information of not running in their contracts, those types of things. We did not experience that as a company. In fact, it was the other way around. We performed in a really tight market for our customers, and we had the interest in renewing contracts. That's what we saw for this season.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Michael Glick with JPMorgan.
Michael Glick:
A couple of questions on the market. You mentioned your hot band exposure. And right now, we're looking at historically wide spreads between hot-rolled and value-added products. Do you expect that spread to contract back to where it has been historically? Or do you think there's something going on to keep those spreads wider than we've seen historically?
Leon Topalian:
When you say value-added products, what are you referring to?
Michael Glick:
Cold-rolled and coated products.
Leon Topalian:
Got it. Yes. Look, Michael, I would tell you, I think the overall trend is, you're going to see that gap shrink. We saw, obviously, a huge spike of imports coming in mainly from Canada and Mexico. Predominantly hot band is what we saw with CRU's numbers out yesterday. Those numbers are correcting. And so, I think you're going to see a a closer level set to norm. But what's norm, right? Coming off a historic year like we had in '21, I think there's three things that Nucor has touched on over really the last year. If you look at our industry over the last 12 or 18 to 24 months, there's been significant shift in consolidation, rationalization and trade. If you think about just five years, six years ago, we had about 55 cases that were won in carbon steel. Today, that's over 110. The trade case is different, but obviously, the door opened up with the massive spread. So while I think there's some correction, I also think the industry has moved as well as Nucor in terms of creating higher highs and higher lows that will continue to move forward. In terms of the overall where that ends up, I'm not going to speculate. I would tell you that the healthy functioning market, it's going to find its equilibrium. And at the end of the day, supply and demand will always be the drivers to how we price our products.
Michael Glick:
And then my second question will also be just kind of bigger picture. The focus on potential capacity curtailments has been on the blast furnace side, but I presume technology on the [indiscernible] side has improved pretty considerably since the late 1980s. I mean do you see any industry EAF flat-rolled mills nearing the end of their relative useful lives given the dilutive impacts on portfolio returns and are of higher scrap and labor costs and a fleet of new mills coming on?
Leon Topalian:
Look, I can only speak to Nucor. And I would just tell you, Nucor has had a long history like 5.5 decades worth of reinvesting back into our mills so that as those mills generate the returns and the EBITDA and the margins, we make sure we reinvest for the long term in all of those assets. So the modernization that our acquisition of the Marion facility, our investment in Kankakee, our investments across the entire product portfolio has been significant in the billions and billions range. And so from a Nucor perspective, I would tell you not at all. Some of our oldest mills are the highest generating returns that we have in our entire portfolio, and it's because we do a great job of reinvesting our teams do an amazing job of keeping the maintenance enough to keep and staying on the latest trends for the improvements in technology to implement, to ensure not only the safest delivery of that steel, but also the lowest cost output to those steel products for our customers.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I will turn the conference back to Mr. Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. As we conclude our call today, I just want to thank the entire Nucor family, for delivering the safest year in our history and the most profitable year in our history. Thank you. And I look forward to continuing the exceptional performance across all of our businesses in 2022. To our customers, thank you for the trust and the partnership as we continue to build the capabilities required to differentiate Nucor as the supplier of choice. And finally, to our shareholders, we're proud of the record returns provided in 2021. However, we're not resting on our past performance. The Nucor team is focused on maximizing our profitability and continuing to be great stewards of the valuable shareholder capital you entrust us with. Thank you, and have a great day.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Nucor Corporation, Third Quarter of 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involved risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and sub-sequential filed 10-Q, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference can speak only as of this date. Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon. And thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. Joining me today on the call are the members of Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Doug Jellison responsible for Raw Materials and Logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for our Business Services and our General Counsel, Dan Needham, responsible for Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products; Rex Query, responsible for sheet and tubular products; MariaEmily Slate, responsible for our Enterprise Commercial Strategy; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Engineered Bar in Fabricated Construction Products. Nucor continues to deliver strong results in our safety performance as we work towards our goal of becoming the world's safest steel Company. Our performance in 2021 is slightly ahead of last year, which was the safest year in Nucor's history. Our team is committed to identifying and eliminating those risks which could lead to injury. Our most important value is the safety, health, and well-being of our entire Nucor family. During the third quarter, we once again achieved record results with earnings-per-share of $7.28. Our third quarter performance surpasses our previous record of $5.04 set in the second quarter of this year, and nearly matches our full-year earnings record of $7.42 that we set back in 2018. I would like to congratulate the entire Nucor team for delivering the phenomenal results we have seen so far this year, while staying focused on our safety goals. I'm incredibly proud of our team and what we're accomplishing together. Since our founding 56 years ago, sustainability has been at the core of Nucor's business model. More than ever before, we see opportunities to advance our continued success by partnering with customers to help them meet their own growth and sustainability objectives. Our recent launch of Econiq, which is a new line of net zero carbon emission steel products, gives our customers confidence and the trust that the products that they are purchasing from Nucor will not only help them meet their sustainability goals but provide a differentiated value proposition for them for the future. Our use of recycled scrap-based EAF technology enables us to operate at 70% below the current GHG intensity for the global steel industry. Econex still will further advance our leadership position by applying credits from 100% renewable electricity and high-quality carbon offsets to negate any remaining scope owner 2 emissions from our steelmaking process. We're delighted that General Motors will be the first customer for Econiq. With our first shipments slated for early 2022, Econiq is going to be a key piece of GM's vision of a net zero emissions future. As GM continues to work towards reducing carbon emissions throughout their supply chain and through electrification of their model lineups, and we also look forward to deploying Econiq more broadly to help customers from across numerous other steel consuming end markets meet their goals and develop more sustainable products. And while I'm on the topic of sustainability, our new corporate sustainability report can be found on nucor.com along with our first TCFD aligned report and updated SASB aligned report from our Steel Mill segment. We hope you will find all this information informative and useful. The third quarter was a very eventful one for Nucor strategically, as we announced our closed on several investments that will help us continue to advance our Company's mission to grow the core, expand beyond, and live our culture. We announced our plan to build a state-of-the-art sheet mill in the Midwest on September 20th, with 3 million tonnes of annual capacity. This mill will be located to serve the country's largest steel consuming regions, the Midwest and the Northeast. These are regions where Nucor is currently underrepresented. With coil width of up to 84 inches, a tandem cold mill, and initially two galvanizing lines, the new sheet mill will position Nucor to grow its market share in value-added products from automotive, appliance, HVAC, heavy equipment, agricultural, transportation, and construction applications. The mills product mix will be approximately 2/3 cold rolled engulfed. The U.S. steel market is undergoing a structural transformation driven by the dual imperatives of economic efficiency and sustainability. Our mill will be state-of-the-art and have a significantly lower carbon footprint than nearby competitors. With our financial strength and multi-decade track record of innovation and execution, Nucor is uniquely positioned to continue leading this acceleration, steel market transformation. Our investment in this greenfield Sheet Mill represents a continuation of Nucor's balanced approach to capital allocation investing in projects and acquisitions expected to generate returns that substantially exceed our cost of capital, while also continuing to return at least 40% of our net income to stockholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. Jim will discuss this further in his opening remarks. Also, we recently announced our plans to expand out west. We will build a new melt shop at one of our existing bar mills in the Western United States. This facility will have the capacity of 600,000 tons annually adding melt capacity positions to Nucor to build on our market leadership position in the region, which is experiencing both population growth and the infrastructure investment that typically accompanies it. Our bar mill group is where our steelmaking started over 50 years ago, and it continues to generate very attractive returns on capital. In addition to prudently investing to grow our core steel businesses, we are executing on our opportunities to expand beyond. During the quarter, we acquired Cornerstone’s insulated metal panels business as well as Hannibal Industries, a steel racking manufacturer. We're now able to offer a broad range of insulated metal panel products and racking solutions. Each of these businesses is aimed squarely at serving fast-growing markets, such as warehouses and data centers. Our strategic investments will continue to be aimed at positioning Nucor to serve attractive, growing, end-use markets as the economy evolves to rely more on renewable power and Internet-based services. We are excited to welcome our newest team members to the Nucor family. As you can see, we are adding capabilities to increase our presence in attractive markets and extend our Company's long record of growth and value creation. Nucor's position to provide the sustainable steel and steel products needed to build a 21st Century green economy, a key requirement of that economy is modern, resilient and sustainable infrastructure. Republicans and Democrats agree that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is urgently needed, and we hope Congress can find a path forward to get this bill passed. In order to ensure the safety of our citizens, the health of our economy, and future opportunities for American workers, we cannot afford to have Congress miss this opportunity. Before I turn the call over to Jim, let me take a moment to congratulate our team. You all should be very proud of the safety and financial results achieved in the first nine months of the year. We can only benefit from these strong market conditions if our facilities are running safely, responsibly, and reliably. Once again, thank you to each of you for what you do to help Nucor win. Nucor will continue to invest in our future and provide our customers a differentiated value proposition while offering the most diverse set of capabilities of any steelmaker. Thank you all for what you do. And as we approach the end of the year, let's continue to make 2021 our safest and most profitable year in Nucor's history. Now, Jim Frias will provide more details about our performance in the third quarter. Jim?
A - Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. We are proud to report our third quarter of 2021 earnings of $7.28 per diluted share, establishing a new quarterly earnings record. This quarter's results also compare favorably with year-ago third quarter earnings of $0.63 per diluted share. We are benefiting from strong demand and profitability across Nucor's diverse portfolio of products and capabilities. Nucor's product breadth continues to be a powerful driver of value creation for both Nucor customers and shareholders. Due to higher-than-expected inventory profit eliminations, third quarter earnings were slightly below our guidance range of $7.30 per diluted share to $7.40 per diluted share. Year-to-date earnings of $15.34 per diluted share are more than double 2018s record annual earnings of $7.42 per diluted share. We are extremely proud of our team's strong performance during the current upcycle and through all the pandemic related challenges we have experienced this year and last. Our confidence in Nucor's competitive positioning has never been greater. As we look to execute on further opportunities in the months and years ahead, our results reflect strong returns from consistent reinvestment in our operations over the years, and outstanding execution by our team Five significant organic growth investment projects representing approximately $1 billion in aggregate capital investment completed startup and full product commissioning over the 2019 to 2020 period
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We'll pause just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal for questions. We'll take our first question from [Indiscernible] with Deutche Bank. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant :
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on the cost inflation. Can you talk about what you're seeing on the cost side other than scrap, mainly natural gas for your DRA and steel mills? Also, would be helpful if you could remind us what percentage of your annual gas requirement is covered by production from your own natural gas wells, or the fixed-price context that you have and how much is exposed to the spot pricing. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you and I appreciate the question. Let me start broadly and maybe ask Jim to chime in on some details. But obviously we're looking at all of our costs across the segment and how that affects the bottom-line performance of Nucor whether they're energy scrap, labor, and again, goods and services that are coming in, again, mostly domestically. So, while we're certainly seeing and following and tracking the supply chain constraints, we source most of our products here domestically and so in some cases -- in most cases we've been a little sheltered from some of those impacts. But as we look at labor, as we look at moving trucks and materials, barges, getting shifts in and out, those costs are certainly having an impact. What we're seeing with energy, obviously we're watching. We have natural gas wells that over the years we've not continued to drill. However, as we see the market moving up, now it's really a question of how long do we believe that sustainable. Do we believe that will continue well into the future? And again, that's part of our team’s analysis -- ongoing analysis now to determine how -- how bullish we are about that future as we move forward, Jim, anything you'd add to that?
Jim Frias:
Yeah. Thanks, Leon. We have an active risk management team that looks at commercial risk over price risk, especially related to energy and natural gas. And we do have hedges in place to cover our gas consumption that cover about 40% of our total gas consumption as a Company going out into 2023 right now. So, we're seeing some inflation obviously with gas costs, but a lot of it's being offset by the hedges that we have in place.
Unidentified Participant :
Okay. Thanks for the color. My second question is on shipments. Mill volumes were down 4% quarter-on-quarter. Can you provide some color on what led to the quarter-on-quarter decline versus your previous guidance for an improvement? And how should we look about shipments for fourth quarter given the planned shutdown at Gallatin for the expansion and also the normal seasonality that you'll see.
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Let me be clear. We didn't miss our guidance because of shipments. We were down 4%, but largely from a shipment’s perspective, that was because of the outages we took across our Sheet Mill Group. We approximately took about a week down at each of our sheet mills and that equated to the shipments roughly that we were down. And as we think about performance, and again, think about the quarters' perspective, we think a better measure of how Nucor's performed against that is our operating cash flows. Year-to-date, we've generated $3.6 billion worth of cash in that time period. However, in the third quarter alone, we generated 1.8 billion of that. So nearly half of the overall year's earnings were accrued or accounted for in the last three months. So, in terms of our performance, the demand drivers driving our business, they remain very, very robust. The piece that we underestimated was the interCompany eliminations. With that, I'll turn it to Jim, let him take you through a little more color around that and how we accrued that or accounted for that.
Jim Frias:
Yes. Thank you, Leon. First of all, let me use some data on what inter-Company elims have been in each quarter this year. There were about 183.6 million in the first quarter, 148.7 million in the second quarter, and they jumped to 268 million in the third quarter. And so, let's talk about why they jump by such large amount. Our normal amount of interCompany steel inventory, and I'm talking about finished steel products have been sold to a downstream business go a sister division that needs that steel for some purpose. It's normally around 1.3 million tons. It goes up and down from time-to-time. And this year, because of the strong demand market that has trended down, in fact, at the end of the second quarter that was down to 1.076 million tons. So down more than 200,000 tons of what we would consider a normal level. And in the third quarter, that inventory came up a little bit. It's now at the end of the third quarter, 1.14 million tons. So went up by roughly 65 -- or around 60,000 tons and most of that happened in September and we didn't forecast it. And the margins on that inventory were very large and so it caused us to miss our earnings by about -- our pre -tax earnings by about $64 million. That was the impact within our forecast equivalent of $0.16 per share. So, it's -- we view it as not something we would call out because it was a onetime item that's tied to an operational issue. It's an interCompany accounting thing that happens, we have so much vertical integration. We view the fact that over 20% of our steel is consumed by in-house customers as a strategic advantage that's important to our business. And so, in the quarter and in specifically in September, the inventory they required, we had them a little hand-to-mouth. Wasn't enough and we stepped it up a little in September and we -- you don't have a way to see that incorporate. You only have so many businesses that makes steel and sell it to the internal customers, there's still way for us to measure that on a timely basis until we close the books at the end of the quarter. And that was what happened.
Unidentified Participant :
Thanks for the -- thanks for that. It was very clear and congrats on a great quarter. Thank you.
Jim Frias:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Martin Englert with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Hi, good afternoon, everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Martin. Martin.
Martin Englert:
Given the increasing EAF Flat Rolled capacity that we're seeing in the North American market. Can you touch on your metallic strategy for prime scrap and substitutes briefly, maybe more so is there anything that you are undertaking on that technology or metallurgical front with scraps or increasing imports of substitutes?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, I'll kick us off Martin. then I'll turn it to Doug Jellison to give us some more details that are EVP of Raw Materials. It's something that goes back in a very long way of Nucor. That was a focus many, many years ago to begin to control more of our iron units and the build out obviously in Trinidad and then subsequently what we had built in our DRI facility in Louisiana gave us a significant amount of material that we could internally control and offset some of the different areas, whether it's pig iron and certainly with the DRI, we produced to balance that approach out. Over the years, we had some challenges as we started up that we're well documented on many of these calls. The performance of the team in Louisiana it's had has been exceptional since they're big outage in November or the 4th quarter of '19. Their reliability has come up significantly. But Doug, I want you to speak more specifically about how we look at Prime with those balances for Nucor in our mix and some of the things that we're looking at moving forward.
Doug Jellison:
Thanks, Leon. Good question. I think I'll start with just putting some a little bit of detail around the capabilities that we have. I think sometimes we lose sight of this. We have about 4.3 million tons of capacity in our recycling yards, which is primarily obsolete. We have what we call the Industrial group that controls about a little over a million tons of prime scrap a year, which is about a sixfold increase over the last five or six years. And we see that continuing to grow in there. We have the GRI facilities that we talked about was about 4.5 million tons of capacity and then all that's tied together with our brokerage group that manages the use of all of that, our national purchases and our international purchases. So, we have a very robust set of capabilities that we can move and react in many different markets. As we see the growth of our steelmaking capacity, we'll be able to take products and use them at the best place to get the best value for. So, places that might be using DRI now we may shift them to other places, backfill that with different rigs from different sources. As far as new technologies, we're looking at things all the time. We're constantly improving our recycling yards to produce a better grade of shred. We are constantly recovering more non-ferrous materials and increasing the value that way and then just a broad scope of new technologies here, around the world, wherever it is. So, we're pretty comfortable with where we are and pretty aggressive in what we're doing.
Martin Englert:
Do you think that what you've undertaken previously and what's ongoing is enough to maintain the historical average prime scrap spread relative to obsolete grades or do you think that there's risk that that moves higher?
Leon Topalian:
Martin, what -- there's certainly going to be increased pressure on Prime without a doubt. As Nucor and others move up the value chain as we make more demanding applications. But at the end of the day and correct me if I'm wrong, roughly about 25% of our mix and our sheet mills is Prime scrap. So, it's not a commodity that were involved into at 40%, 50%, 60% of the mix that we need. So, with what Doug mentioned in the David Joseph Company, we've been building relationships in this market and it's again a commodity driven product where we're going to pay which required, but what's the governor we believe the DRI actually keeps a level set between prime and obsolete grades, but will that increase? Yes, we do think it will increase, but we feel incredibly good and well positioned with what we've done, what we are currently doing in the mix that are in our mills today and what Doug mentioned, rationalizing that because we generate the DRI. It offsets other usage, but some of the mills that are using DRI today don't need that for the end-use customer requirements. We're going to shift those mixes. So again, as we build this new sheet mill, we feel very well positioned to be able to get the mix that we need, to make the grades that we want as we move into the highest applications and automotive in the other markets.
Martin Englert:
Thanks for all the detail there, that's helpful. I'm curious when -- years back when you are pursuing the Louisiana DRI, there had been some talk about a potential another slag blast furnace, which I'm sure that's been off the table and probably wouldn't come back given ESG focus now, but would it be something you would consider on like a hydrogen basis?
Leon Topalian:
Actually, Martin, I think the timing is reversed and we actually looked at building two blast furnaces at the Louisiana site first and then shifted to the DRI. I would tell you at this point there is zero chance Nucor is going to build a blast furnace. However, to your comment around hydrogen whether it's here to sequestration that we're evaluating, whether it's hydrogen reforming and its cost impact to the business. We have a team that's under Doug Jellison’s Group, technically that are following and tracking dozens of technologies and some that we're going to invest, some we're going to explore further. But we're going to stay very close to making sure that Nucor's on the cutting edge of steel making move to a more sustainable future. And again, a big part of that for us was our launch of Econiq, offering net-zero steel today to our customers, particularly in automotive and the relationship with General Motors being the first customer. But since that announcement, the interest in inquiry and demand for that product and that family of products, it's been significant.
Martin Englert:
Do you get any type of premium for that product line versus --?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Yes.
Martin Englert:
Yeah, you do. Okay. Very interesting. Thank you for all the color and detail. Very helpful. Congratulations to you on the team on the quarter and look forward to next quarter.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks very much, Martin. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Will take our next question from Michael Glick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Michael Glick:
Just on the growth capital, following your recent acquisitions, mill analysis and other organic projects, how should we think about your appetite for incremental, organic, or inorganic growth projects going forward?
Leon Topalian:
Let me start at the macro and Jim, please jump in. As we think about Nucor as a growth Company, we're going to continue to grow. Our mission statement, I've shared several times is 8 words
Michael Glick:
And then just on the fabrication business, obviously, really strong this quarter. Could you talk a bit about how that book is shaping up in terms of the backlog from a volume and pricing perspective versus called prior peaks?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, I certainly will. Actually, I'll ask Chad Utermark, who's over our Fabrication products since -- to share some detail there.
Chad Utermark:
Thank you, Leon. Michael, as we look forward to in the non-res construction arena, we see a really strong 2022. And why is that? Leon touched on it, but it starts with this digitization economy that's happening. It's firing on all cylinders, it's creating significant demand for distribution centers, warehouses, server storage facilities. We're also seeing a manufacturing growth and expansion in plants. And as we probably all red overall, the U.S. consumer is in a very healthy place. When you take that backdrop and then look at our backlogs across our industry-leading breadth of steel products, our quoting activity has been and continues to be very robust across all the steel product groups and we have very strong backlogs in most of our downstream businesses and in some cases all-time record backlogs. As far as pricing, obviously, that's a market-driven phenomenon, but we continue to see pricing moved up through 2021 and it's very -- we're in a very healthy spot, really excited about 2022 and beyond in our downstream businesses.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Chad.
Chad Utermark:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Carlos, your line is open. Please check your mute button.
Carlos De Alba:
Thank you very much, everyone. What do I need? In terms of your mix for a scrap, can you comment as to how has evolved, how much -- even if it is on a range, how much prime versus obsolete are you using? And maybe scrap -- prime obsolete, as well as DRI. Any comments will be helpful. And then in terms of the lead times, so we're seeing the industry data showing lead times coming down in the last few months. And but do -- your comments are obviously very constructive in terms of end-market and the outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond. Can you help us understand and reconcile what we're seeing in this industry reported data and what you're seeing in your business?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, Carlos, maybe I'll kick us off on your latter question around what we're seeing in terms of market and then Doug maybe can address your initial question on Prime and the other grades. Look, there are certain segments within Nucor. Nucor has the widest product offering of any steel Company in North America. Our ability to serve end-use markets from automotive, Ag, heavy equipment, renewable sectors, the digital economy, the HVAC construction arena, provide a unique insight and obviously backdrop to what is happening. As Chad mentioned, as we think about half of our products move into the construction arena. The robust demand there, as Chad mentioned, is seen well out into 2022. So, we see no slowing there at all. If we're seeing some slowness, it's from two markets really that I'll touch on. One is automotive. The chip shortages are certainly well-documented, something that people are very familiar with, but with that come some unique opportunities. Obviously, Nucor's not heavily laden automotive today, we're at 78% of our overall mix, 1.5 million -- 1.6 million tons that move into the automotive markets and that's going to increase. We want to double that over the next 2 to 3 years. And when the chip shortage ends and subsides, the pent-up demand in disposable income by consumers in the United States I think is going to be a boon for the auto industry, but also for companies like Nucor that continued to supply into that. So, I think there is going to be some or is some elasticity that we're seeing but I think it's not demand-driven. We see it more from a rebounding in supply chain issues and constraints, the other is in some of the construction. While again, the demand is strong, we're seeing some jobs sites that are slowing because there are having trouble, their end customers are getting having issues, getting their needs from overseas if they're requiring chemicals or overseas parts and deliveries that are being held up in waterways or finding trucks and then getting containers across, across the ocean. So, there are pieces of that that I think are going to create some softening in that. But again, overall, we see the fourth quarter being very robust and again, potentially eclipsing the Q3 record, we'll wait obviously to see the results of that, but we anticipate that it could be as strong or slightly stronger. Doug maybe just touching on this opening question around prime.
Doug Jellison:
Yes. If you look across all of our steel mills, about 19% of our mix is prime rigs and scrap, and about 15% DRI. Did I cover the question?
Carlos De Alba:
Yeah. Maybe just the neck of the rest is obsolete, right? Or different grades of obsolete.
Doug Jellison:
There's 10%[Indiscernible] in there and the balance is obsolete.
Carlos De Alba:
Excellent. Thank you very much. Good luck in the quarter.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Tristan Glasser with Exane, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Tristan Glasser:
Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one on working capital, was there any one-off impact in the 1.2 billion due soon in Q3, I don't know maybe related to the growth projects and some lower off-takes from OEM you mentioned over the weakness or was it all a price FX? And also, if you can, what you could expect in Q4 is still use of cash or you think you'd be able to release some cash there?
Leon Topalian:
Tristan, you look -- let me just give -- make sure I have them clear on the initial part of the question around working capital, was it wanting to understand the Q3 performance or? I'm not sure I caught the gist of what you were trying to get.
Tristan Glasser:
The Inventory build in working capital in Q3 came a bit elevated compared to what we had. I was wondering if there was any one of impact or is just price effects. And also, if you can touch on Q4, your expectation if you think there's still going to be use of cash in working capital.
Jim Frias:
This is Jim Frias. Thank you for clarifying the question. It really wasn't much of an inventory building I talked about the either Company inventories. They only went up by tens of thousands of tons and scrap didn't go up much, finished goods, so it was really a valuation issue. The value of inventories went up significantly in our portfolio, as well as the evaluation of receivables, they both went up. Besides price per ton, we're still collecting receivables in 30 days essentially and the value of each tons that customer owed us for went up. And so, we used about $1.2 billion between inventory receivables net of payables in cash in Q3. So, as we think about Q4, we think there could be some margin expansion, but not at the same rate that we've achieved in the third quarter. So, we think working capital's use of cash should be down dramatically. We're not going to forecast a number but it won't be nearly at that $1.2 billion level.
Tristan Glasser:
That's really helpful. And maybe a second question on lower-carbon steel, would be interested to know given the visibility you have on the CO2 savings, you're going to be able to generate. How much tonnage of Econiq you maybe see for next year and 2023? Do you see this commercial opportunity as a way to boost your margins or rather to gain market share and notably in the automotive market?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, to the above, Tristan. So yes, to both pieces of your question. Yes, there is value-added. Nucor's capability to be able to do this provides a differentiated value proposition as -- as announced, and again, we're so excited with the partnership with General Motors, but we're also excited about the other interest in the companies that we're working with beyond, not just within the auto sector in other companies, but much wider. So, the market acceptance for that is going to be significant and it's also going to be quick. But the other piece of that is we think about volumes. I'm not going to state exactly what our volumes are. What I would tell you is when we say at that scale, we're not talking insignificant tonnages, we're talking very significant tonnages that Nucor's going to supply into the Econiq family. And so, yeah, just stay tuned because that's going to ramp up very quickly.
Tristan Glasser:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Andreas Hauser with UBS, please go ahead.
Andreas Hauser:
Thank you very much. Just a follow-up question on the ultra [Indiscernible]. You guys obviously want to capture more market share. How is it looking so far in the second half of the year? We've been hearing that also producers have been shifting more orders to electric arc furnace producers. And, obviously, one of your peers confirmed they were certainly seeing that. Are you seeing that as well here in the second half of the year that that you're capturing market share in the ultra-market?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, absolutely. And then again, I'm not going to give you specific numbers, but I would tell you that opportunity is ramping up very, very quickly and again, our team has done an amazing job of building the relationships with the major OEMs in this nation. We're excited about the opportunities that -- to serve that market. And at the end of the day, the Econiq family in providing a net-zero steel is going to be a piece of the automakers commitments in providing a net-zero output. So, in order for them to reach their goals, they've got to start with a net-zero steel. We believe we have a differentiated value proposition to offer those steels today unlike any other producer. So yeah, we're very excited about that. Our market share is growing. And again, part of the new mills focus is to move and continue up that value chain. The mill that's being built there is differentiated. It will not be what we've built in the past. It will provide significant quality and advanced high-strength steel capabilities that match and mirror very, very nicely with the lowest carbon footprint anywhere in the world. So, we're, again, tremendously excited about that and the relationship that Nucor's built. We are the only EEF producer ever to receive a GM Supplier of the Year award. We've now done that back to back-to-back years, 3 years in a row and so again, it's been a lot of years at Nucor's worked very hard, but the fruits of that work and the relationships that are built are paid dividends.
Andreas Hauser:
Thank you. That's very clear. And maybe just a second question on the second half of this year. So obviously we are a little bit in maintenance shutdown season at the moment. Have you guys been restocking ahead of any maintenance shutdowns to ensure your volume stays stable into the fourth quarter?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. I'll switch over to Rex Query who is our EVP of Sheet and Tubular. Rex, maybe just him a little bit of color as we think about that broadly and then specifically as we think about the startup of our Gallatin project.
Rex Query:
Appreciate the question, Andreas. I would start on a broader sense with Nucor having 5 sheet mills. It's common practice for us as we have outages at various plants and we'll look at the needs from a customer's standpoint, and we're able to support a plant that may have an extended outage going on. So that's pretty common practice, not unusual for us. We'll shift supply between our plants to accommodate that. Probably the outage that's getting the most notoriety right now is with the expansion of Gallatin and that's progressing well, we're excited about it and we're going to be concluding that soon and that's going to conclude with the largest outage we have coming up in December; a 25-day outage. We've been prepping for that for months already ahead of time. So, we have already had and will continue to have coil sand so that we can continue to shift from the pickle galv line through there, but also, we'll take care of customers from some of our other plants. So, you'll see a minimal impact on the volume and the total sheet side based on that, due to our prior prep ahead of time. Thank you.
Andreas Hauser:
No, thank you. Thank you for taking my question. I appreciate the answers. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask about 2022 and potentially even some insights on 2023 capital spending at this point.
Jim Frias:
We don't have -- this is Jim Frias won't have our final budget in yet. But give you some color around the bigger projects that are wrapping up this year and next year. So, when we flipped to my document that has an information. Yes. For Brandenburg, in the fourth quarter we think that cap spending there is going to be in the neighborhood of 250 million to 70 million somewhere in that range. And then next year we'll be in the 800 million to 900 million range. For the galvanizing line at Arkansas, roughly five I was 6 million in the fourth quarter and it's going to start up in the fourth quarter, but there's always carryover expenses because of the when the timing of when bills come in. So probably another 5 million next year in the first quarter. Gallatin will probably spend in the high 80 million range in the fourth quarter and there's probably be carryover in the low-to-mid 20s into next year. And those are the bigger items. So, we don't have a formal budget yet. We have to go for the Board in December with our capital plan and have them improve it. So wouldn't be appropriate for us to give up a total number for next year, but I don't think it's going to be dynamically different than our spending level this year is going to be in the range of what we're doing in this year.
David Gagliano:
Just a couple of quick follow-ups. What have you -- what do you say now for sustaining Capex on an annual basis? That's one question and the other one is in terms of the new mill, that's starting up in 2024, 2025-time frame, when will the line share of the capital for that [Indiscernible]?
Jim Frias:
I'll do the first half, Leon and if you could -- you or Dave can talk about the new mill's ramp for Capex. So, we think of maintenance Capex is being in the neighborhood of 500 million per year, so that's first half.
Leon Topalian:
What's Maybe just a little bit of color or maybe more than you asked for David, but. As we think about the new mill, next step for us is to finalize site selection, which we anticipate by year's end. Really, as we think about Capex ramp up, really don't see much of anything materially. In 2022, the start of that will be probably midyear of 23, well into '24 and maybe early '25.
David Gagliano:
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, David.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, our final question will come from Andrew Cosgrove with Bloomberg Intelligence. Please go ahead.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on section 232, I was curious if there's been any talk in Washington about positively replacing 232 with some sort of carbon border adjustment at some point in the future, given the fact that obviously the U.S. has a clear advantage with respect to low carbon produced Steel. And that would obviously be advantageous for U.S. producers to protect against imports going forward. So was curious if there's been any talk about that and what you guys’ thoughts are.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, you've framed the issue very well and it is a certainly a concern. Look, what I would tell you is absolutely there's been conversations, we're going to continue to work with the administration in Washington Secretary Ormando and Katherine Ty the USTR have done a great job, they know the market, they know the industry very, very well and again, I think a piece of this Andrew is already in the works now with what's being conducted with Europe. And so, we think that's going to move away, obviously from 232 and what the final outcome looks like whether it's a tariff rate quarter. But we'll wait and see, but as you mentioned, as we think about the environmental advantage, there is a huge piece of recognizing both in Congress as well as the American consumer, that when we think about a green economy, as we think about renewable, it should be very important to the members of the House consented that those renewable energy projects are not built with the dirtier steals from overseas in the world, but are built with the most sustainable, cleanest Steel and steel companies found here in the United States, like Nucor and other EAF producers, there is a significant advantage. And so, if that happens, Nucor's also provided our commentary and analysis on what an order adjustment tax must include because it is not apples-to-apples and that's Steel product. and so again, we're going to be very vocal. We're going to continue to advocate, but we do have a high regard for Secretary Ormando and Katherine Ty understanding there's issues in the new ounces and again, I can't tell you when but 232 will go away at some point, but it is a vehicle to bring other nations to the negotiating table to negotiate a better trade arrangement.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just the last one would just be if you could just quickly just chat row briefly about the cadence of the start-up at Gallatin when we should expect the additional 1.4 million tons to hit approximately the ramp-up schedule?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, I'll turn that over to Rex Query again, our EVP of sheets.
Rex Query:
Andrew, just stay as we mentioned, after the outage will begin, the bottle startup basis that that project, so that'll begin late this year, latter half of December. Startup will continue into the first quarter and then we'll be producing products through the mill and sometime into the first quarter. I would tell you we focused in total on the tonnage through that mill. The additional tonnage would be somewhere around 1.4 million tonnes as you mentioned. We've targeted somewhere close to the million-tonne mark. I would tell you that's like -- For next year -- for next year. For 2022, for the additional tons. So that's likely to be somewhere in 800,000 to 1 million tonnes through that plant next year.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Great. Thanks, gentlemen. Have a great one. Congratulations in the quarter --
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Andrew. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
As we conclude our call today, I'd like to thank our Nucor teammates for their continued focus on the safety, health, and well-being of the entire Nucor family to our customers. Thank you for the trust that you placed in the Nucor team with every order, we will work hard each day to earn your business and provide you with the products and solutions that enable you to achieve your goals and finally, to our shareholders, we take seriously the stewardship of the valuable shareholder capitol you entrust our Company with. Nucor is extremely excited about our future and the returns we will continue to generate. Thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. For information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are the members of Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Doug Jellison, responsible for Raw Materials and Logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and our General Counsel; Dan Needham, responsible for Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products; Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for our Enterprise Commercial Strategy; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Engineered Bar and Fabricated Construction Products. Thank you for joining us today. With demand for steel remaining strong in most of our facilities operating at peak performance, we have not lost focus on our goal of becoming the world's safest steel company. We continue to perform well on the safety front as we look to make 2021 our safest year ever, besting our record set just last year. In particular, I want to acknowledge the progress demonstrated by our sheet mills in our two DRI facilities for achieving world-class safety performance so far this year. I encourage all of our teammates to maintain their focus on safety so we can achieve the most important goal that we have set for our company. Consistent with last month's guidance, Nucor posted record quarterly earnings in the second quarter. Our earnings of $5.04 per share surpassed our previous earnings per share record set last quarter. Our first half earnings of $8.13 per share exceeds our full year EPS record of $7.42 set in 2018. All three operating segments are continuing to generate robust profits due to strong demand, higher average selling prices and excellent execution across Nucor. In our Steel Mills segment, we saw the greatest improvement in profitability from our sheet and plate mills. The performance of our Steel Products group also improved compared to the first quarter. Jim will provide more details about our performance this quarter and our outlook for the third quarter in a few minutes. This level of performance is the result of years of work strategically growing and positioning our company to thrive in market conditions like we are experiencing today. My congratulations to the entire Nucor team. There are several fundamental drivers of the strong market conditions Nucor is benefiting from today. The most important of these is robust demand, virtually all the steel end use markets that we monitor are growing. Some of this growth may simply be catch up from the pandemic-induced economic loan we experienced here in the U.S., but we think it goes beyond a temporary rebound. One sign of this is the increasing confidence about next year that we sense from our customers, ranging from automotive, trucking, heavy and ag equipment and across the construction sector. There are noteworthy new drivers for growth in steel demand, warehouses for e-commerce, renewable energy projects and an increase in U.S. manufacturing investment, focused on greater supply chain resiliency are all creating new market opportunities for Nucor. Very strong housing and automotive markets are also creating incremental steel demand, not to mention activity by state DOTs, whose infrastructure investment spending has held up better than expected. We are fortunate that several of our strategic growth investments have come online during this period, and our results reflect better-than-expected contributions from Nucor Steel Mills in Sedalia, Frostproof, Kankakee, Marion, Gallatin's new galvanizing line and Hickman's new cold mill. My thanks, especially to our teammates at these locations, who have worked safely to ramp these projects up quickly to meet market demands. Our strategy continues to be
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Second quarter earnings of $5.04 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range. Better-than-expected results for the month of June were achieved across a broad group of businesses, including our beam mills, bar mills, sheet mills, rebar fabrication, tubular products and joist and deck. Nucor's diverse portfolio of products and capabilities is consistently a powerful driver of value creation for Nucor shareholders and customers. Recently completed capital projects made significant and above budget earnings contributions in the first half of this year. These projects are the rolling mill modernization at our Ohio rebar mill, the hot band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill; the specialty cold rolling mill at our Arkansas sheet mill; the rebar micro mills in Missouri and Florida; and the merchant bar rolling mill at our Illinois bar mill. These targeted investments are enabling Nucor to earning a growing and profitable share of the markets we serve. The Hickman, Arkansas specialty cold mill is an excellent example of Nucor's growth strategy. There are no other carbon steel mills in North America that match our new range of capabilities. In the second quarter, the Hickman specialty cold mill ran at 118% of rated capacity, more than double its originally projected production ramp time line. Since beginning operations in mid-2019, this project's life-to-date profitability also substantially exceeds its initial forecast. And the Hickman team is looking ahead to further expanding long-term earnings power as it begins the work of commissioning its third-generation flexible galvanizing line equipment. The state-of-the-art capabilities of these new assets will position Nucor to further grow our automotive footprint. We will provide our automotive customers the greenest, most advanced high-strength steels in the industry. These deals will provide our customers the ultimate solution that satisfies their needs, long into the future. Our success bringing strategic projects like this online reflects the Nucor team's commitment to being effective stewards of our shareholders' valuable capital. Our growth investments are targeted at defined market objectives and opportunities to generate attractive returns with reduced volatility through the economic cycle. Financial strength continues to be a critical underpinning to Nucor's ability to grow long-term earnings power. At the close of the second quarter, our cash, short-term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled $3.2 billion, compared with the end of the first quarter position, our second quarter cash position increased by about $226 million. That increase is after funding share repurchases of $614 million, cash dividends of $123 million, capital expenditures of $389 million and a working capital expansion on the inventory receivables and payables line items totaling about $945 million. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which does not mature until April of 2023. Total long-term debt, including the current portion, was approximately $5.3 billion at quarter end. Gross debt as a percent of total capital was approximately 30%, while net debt was 12% of total capital and remains well below our targeted range of 18% to 23%. We remain materially underleveraged on this basis, but we anticipate that this will change somewhat as we deploy capital to acquire Cornerstone's IMP business and Hannibal Industries. We're excited to be moving forward with these new growth platforms. We expect that these businesses, along with the numerous internal growth projects we have been executing on, will materially add to Nucor's earnings and cash flow generation in the years ahead. Cash provided by operating activities for the first half of 2021 was $1.9 billion. Nucor's free cash flow or cash provided by operations minus capital spending was $1.2 billion. Nucor's financial strength and robust through-the-cycle cash flow allows for consistent balanced approach to capital allocation. We now estimate total year capital spending of approximately $1.8 billion. Each of our three most significant capital projects, the expansion and modernization of the Gallatin, Kentucky sheet mill; the Generation 3 flexible galvanizing line at the Hickman, Arkansas sheet mill; and the greenfield Brandenburg, Kentucky plate mill, remain on schedule. At Brandenburg, the timing of some equipment deliveries has been delayed, but overall, the project remains on schedule for a late 2022 commissioning. During the second quarter, we continued to see attractive value in our shares, repurchasing 6.765 million shares at an average cost of approximately $91 per share. Over the first half of this year, Nucor share repurchases totaled more than 12 million shares at an average cost of about $75 per share. Shares outstanding have been reduced by approximately 3% from the year-end 2020 level. For the first half of 2021, total cash returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases totaled just under $1.2 billion, representing approximately 47% of net earnings for the period. As we have said previously, we intend to return a minimum of 40% of our net income to Nucor shareholders. We are rewarding shareholders with substantial cash returns while continuing to invest for future profit growth and maintaining a strong balance sheet. Turning to the outlook for the third quarter of 2021, we are encouraged by a number of positive factors impacting our markets. As Leon mentioned, we see improving or stable market conditions for the vast majority of the end-use markets served by Nucor. In fact, order backlogs at most of our businesses suggest strength well into 2022. Further supporting our optimistic outlook, inventories throughout the supply chain remain lean. We expect earnings in the third quarter of 2021 to again set a new record. Compared to the second quarter, we expect earnings growth at all three of our segments, most notably our Steel Mills segment. Additionally, with our expectation of a strong fourth quarter, we believe second half of 2021 earnings will exceed first half of 2021 earnings. Nucor's record results highlight the success of our 27,000 team members building a stronger and more profitable Nucor. Our team's 2021 performance is simply outstanding. We remain excited by the opportunities ahead for our company. We have great determination to deliver increasing long-term value for our shareholders. Living our culture means driving sustainable performance. Thank you for your interest in our company. Now, we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Emily Chieng:
Good afternoon, Leon and Jim. Thanks for the update today. I'd like to start off with sort of the M&A strategy that you guys have at Nucor. Clearly, you've focused on sort of the downstream fabrication type of assets so far. But when you look ahead and think about the opportunity set that's out there, is it more the same type of assets that you've looked at currently? Could there be potential for steel production capacity consolidation or even further upstream?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Emily. Look, I would tell you broadly, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, our mission is to grow the core, expand beyond and live the culture. We see opportunities as we think about growing the core, and that's the expansions at our Hickman galvanizing line to become the first EAF to be able to produce a full generation three steel for the automotive sector. It's the expansion at our Gallatin sheet mill in expanding that footprint into a more attractive returns in different sectors like automotive, energy, and our culmination with the largest single investment in Nucor's history, our plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky, that's going to be brought online next year. That's going to be located in the heart of the largest plate-consuming region in the United States. And from a timing perspective, as we think about the renewable energy market and sector, that mill is incredibly ideally positioned and well suited to meet the demands of both onshore wind, but particularly offshore when that grows as a business. But we also see opportunities as we think about growth in the core outside of that. And so there are times that you're going to see Nucor continue to look within the framework of traditional steelmaking lanes that we've operated in for the last half of a century, but also expanding beyond. And that is the recent acquisitions with both Cornerstone and Hannibal that fit Nucor's long-term strategic objectives of maximizing shareholder returns. But also Emily, it's a focus on moving into markets that are truly growing. As you know, steel is a cyclical business in the industry and what we see in those renewable space what we see in the green economy and digital economy is a fast-growing and increasing market opportunity for Nucor to maximize and leverage its strength, its cultural stewardship and to bring a leadership perspective into those businesses.
Emily Chieng:
That's really helpful and makes sense. One quick follow-up. I know you mentioned updated time or sort of a reiteration of the timing of the Brandenburg start-up. Can you provide some similar details for the Gallatin hot band capacity expansion and the galvanizing line at Hickman, please? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I'll turn that to Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer, to provide a little more color on both of those projects.
David Sumoski:
Yes, both those projects are scheduled to come up at the end of this year. They're both still on target for that. And as Jim and Leon both mentioned, we're really excited about the expanded capabilities that those projects will bring. Some recent projects that came up and the success that we've had, that the team has shown and been able to do, it gives us a lot of confidence and a lot of excitement that these projects will come up and they'll come up running better than ever or faster than ever. If you think about the Gallatin galvanizing line, they're already running that way past the inflate capacity. Jim mentioned the cold mill over in Arkansas running at higher than the nameplate. So they basically ran slightly higher than nameplate as well in Florida. Florida is moving right on under their heel. So very excited about the team and the team's capabilities of providing these projects or bringing these projects online safely.
Jim Frias:
One clarification. When Dave said both these projects, I think he was referring to the Hickman line and Gallatin. Brandenburg is not until late 2022.
David Sumoski:
Yes. That's correct.
Leon Topalian:
The final point Emily, I'd like to share as we think about growth and it really is a backdrop, as Nucor filters through all of our strategic growth strategies, as Nucor is not looking to build capacity. We're looking to build capability. And so as we think about our growth strategy, it's not about a volume play. It's about offering a differentiated value proposition for our customers to create, again, long-term shareholder value.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Carlos De Alba:
Thank you very much everyone, very solid quarter. So a couple of questions, if I may. Just one is on working capital, obviously, it consumed cash this quarter. How do you see that progressing in the second half of the year? Prices remain quite strong, volumes also quite solid. So should we assume a similar run rate in the coming quarters or more of a stable stabilization at these levels? And then if I may ask if you have any comments about how the HPI operations perform? And what is the outlook for prime scrap in the coming quarters? That would be great.
Jim Frias:
I'll take the first one, and I'll let Leon decide who's going to talk about DRI not HBI. But working capital -- that's okay. If we look at working capital, is inventory receivables and payables, it consumed over $900 million of cash in Q2. We expect that to moderate in the balance of the year. It's still going to require some increase. It will depend on how much scrap prices go up, if they do. And of course, we know sheet pricing is going up because of the way the CRU contracts our impact. I think we just recently announced price increases in some other products as well. So, we'll see some price inflation that will cause working capital to go up further, but probably not at the same pace as we experienced in Q2.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. And on the second part, Carlos, I wanted to ask Doug Jellison, our EVP of Raw Materials, to give you a little update on our two DRI facilities.
Doug Jellison:
Carlos, both of our DRI facilities are operating very well. The teams are performing at world-class reliabilities and uptime, the quality is outstanding. We see the balance of the year being just pretty standard in routine, no excitement there. Prime scrap, the prime scrap market, we see a pretty steady flow and kind of a leveling off of price in the prime scrap in there.
Carlos De Alba:
Alright. Excellent. Thank you very much. DRI, yes, I thought so much API recently.
Doug Jellison:
No worries.
Operator:
All right. And up next, we'll hear from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
First question, I know the sheet market seems to get a lot of the positive press, but we've seen pretty significant recovery in the plate in most of the long product markets. And we've heard that some of the specialty beam sizes have actually been sold out in the next 6 to 7 months. So I was just hoping, if you could provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing across plate and long products? And how you would kind of compare those markets, be it lead times, backlog levels relative to what you're seeing in the sheet market?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll kick it off, and then Al, if you want to dive in a little bit deeper on plate, and then Rex may be on the sheet side. It's a great point. And you're right, for a lot of obvious reasons as we think about. Sheet does get a lot of press. It's a 60 million ton a year market. It's an important segment for Nucor. It's certainly front of mind as we think about the opportunities for us as we move more into the automotive sector. But to your point, as we think about the contrast, I've spent several of my years at the beam mill at Nucor Yamato. Over the last decade or so, I would say Nucor Yamato is averaged in that 70% utilization range. They're approaching 90% today, and we've not seen that for nearly a decade. And so the performance of that mill has been exemplary through that period, profitability-wise. But now in this market, we're seeing an incredible strength. Backlogs are improving. Order conditions are improving in the forecast as we move, not just through the rest of the year, but in some cases, well into '22, strength through the cycle in many of those groups. All of that is to say -- none of that is to say, rather, or include any thought of what a meaningful infrastructure bill being passed in the United States could do and include. And again, we have room, we have opportunity in terms of creating and generating more steel for that sector. But the same conditions exist in long products. Al, why don't you touch on plate and then again, Rex on sheet?
Al Behr:
Yes. Thanks, Curt. I think Leon covered that really well. Construction is obviously a huge market for beams and it is for plate as well and it speaks to the strength of non-res construction that we've seen all this year. A lot of that construction is centered on low-rise industrial, warehouse distribution, data centers, what's left to start showing some life is high-rise, which is only continued tailwinds for the beam market and the high-rise construction has been very, very slow over the last year or so, but it's starting to show some signs of life. In the plate market, specifically, really all markets are quite strong. The heavy ag market, transportation with rail cars, even oil and gas is starting to come back now. That's been one of the weaker markets, but we're starting to see activity in oil and gas and then take cars, you've got to move oil one way or another. And if it's not in the pipeline, it's in a tank car. And so we see continued strength in the plate market. We see a good balance between supply and demand. That's what drives the pricing of the product, and we see continued strike through the second half of this year and then some.
Doug Jellison:
Yes. Curt. It's Rex Query, on the sheet side, just a couple of comments to add. It's very, very comparable to what Al mentioned, backlog remains very strong. To follow on a comment from, Leon, about building capability, not necessarily capacity. On the sheet side with the projects that Sumoski mentioned, that Dave mentioned. We've got both. We have the capabilities going -- increasing at Hickman with the gal, the capacity coming online at Gallatin. Sectors are strong, building construction energy more on the renewable side that we see. We're squeezing some of our outages. We're not going to compromise our reliability, but we are pulling some days out when we can on our outages on the sheet side so that we're able to produce more. And auto is tepid right now. So we haven't seen that with the chip issues that are going on. So we see there's a future opportunity as that comes about to see strength in the future on that. So that's the sheet side.
Curt Woodworth:
Great. Thanks. And as you think about longer-term progression of the business becoming more value-add and more specialty platem, I assume that would drive incremental demand for higher quality metallics and there's been a lot of debate in the market about shortage of prime scrap and being overly dependent on, say, pig iron from Russia and things like that. Do you think there's scope for additional investment into DRI or additional facilities to support DJJ? Just curious how you think that fits in and how does that fit into also the carbon strategy?
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Curt. And look, I'll touch on it and ask Jim or Doug, to chime in. As we think about your framing, you're right. As we think about Nucor expanding and some of our competitors expanding further upstream into more value-added businesses. On the EAF side, the demand for prime is going to get tighter. And that is why Nucor long ago began a very thoughtful and long-term strategy to control more of our metallics inventory. And that's why we built the facility in Louisiana. And again, I'm proud of the team. I'm proud of the work that they've done. For way too many years on this call, we shared one reliability issue after the next. Their downturn that they took back in 2019 to fix the reliability issues has manifested itself to what Doug shared earlier in terms of world-class reliability, now operating not just in Trinidad, which is done for a long time, but now marrying that up with our capability in Louisiana. So, under new course control, we have about 4.5 million tons of DRI metallics that are in our direct control, and move forward. And as we think about expansion and the demand on the metallic side, is there opportunity? Yes, I think there's some opportunities as we think about -- is there an opportunity in this country for certain integrated competitors to make pig iron in those facilities and have a sourced buyer in the United States, absolutely. And Nucor would be absolutely supportive of that strategy. But again, that's for them to sort through and work through. But again, we're confident in our capability today.
Doug Jellison:
Not much to add to that, Leon. I think you did a good job on that.
Operator:
And now we'll hear from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Phil Gibbs:
What are your expectations right now in the third quarter versus the second quarter just in terms of overall steel volumes? They've obviously been very strong in the first half of the year. Sometimes you get seasonality, sometimes you don't. I know you're taking outages here and there. So what are your expectations just for the steel volumes?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I would tell you that we're expecting a more slightly higher than what we saw in Q2. So not substantially greater, but we do see some improving end markets, and we think the opportunity is there for us to run a little bit stronger in Q3.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then I did notice just on your cash flow statement that you had some inflows from taxes. And I know some of that was anticipated with putting some new assets into service. Can you just remind us, Jim, how much you have left in terms of cash tax avoidance maybe for the balance of the year and then in 2022?
Jim Frias:
I'm sorry. I got interrupted. Ask me again, Phil?
Phil Gibbs:
No, I just said I noticed on the cash flow statement that you had some cash tax inflows. So you avoided some cash taxes in the first half of the year. I think it was around $300 million from memory. What do you have in the back half, if anything, in terms of the difference between your effective and cash taxes? And what could that inflow be, if anything? And then in 2022, as Gallatin comes into service, is there more cash tax inflows coming from that?
Jim Frias:
I don't have it at my fingertips, Paul is right here, and he's trying to whisper to me, and I'm not understanding. Paul, why don't you give him the number?
Paul Donnelly:
It's $250 million about this year, Phil, and probably about another $250 million or so in '22 from accelerated depreciation benefits.
Jim Frias:
But Phil, the number you saw in the statement of cash flow, just to be clear, that's not initially that exactly. It's more of the timing of our accrual versus the payments we make quarterly. So that would be true that is purely being related to the benefits we get from accelerated depreciation on those capital investments. Okay?
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. So the $250 million, just take the portion -- yes, go ahead.
Jim Frias:
Well, we're going to get $250 million of benefit in what we pay versus what we accrued this year and $250 million next year. But it's not just as simple as looking at that line of statement of cash flows to see.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then in terms of end demand, I know you had said a lot of your end markets in the right direction. Right now, automotive has been sort of squishy, given the push outs in the second quarter and some of the downtime that manufacturers have taken one of your competitors earlier today said that they had to withhold some volume and kept in their inventory, that they hope to lap later this year. I mean, any thoughts in terms of what you all are seeing on automotive and what are the signals spend? And what are you planning for because it's been very tough to read from our standpoint?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, let me begin with the kind of the backdrop of as we think about semiconductors and one of the things that I think most Americans have learned through this pandemic is, this nation needs to be a nation that builds and makes things again, and we've got to restore manufacturing in this country, whether it be pharma, PPE, medical equipment devices and semiconductors. But directly to answer your question, you think about the days on hand in the automotive world of about 27 days on hand, inventory numbers are staggeringly low. We think about the rental car fleets across this nation, it's going to take a long time to replenish the dealer inventory networks as well as the rental car side. But as we mentioned, our investment strategies and our move in automotive is really exciting for Nucor. We're about 1.5 million tons today into the automotive sector. And our focus is to, in the next several years, double that. Our OEM relationships that we've built over the years, now becoming General Motors Supplier of the Year back to back to back years, three years in a row, our team has done a phenomenal job. I couldn't be more proud of the work that's done. So while I do think we're going to see some constraints, obviously, you're reading the headlines as we are in talking to our customers. There's going to be a lot of pressure, right? The GM announced they're going to take some downtime on some of their Silverados and building out of their pickup trucks. None of that is by design, right? It's because they can't get the parts that they need. So while it will have an overall material impact to the industry, Nucor's volumes are not significantly off. And we have a unique platform where our 14 OEM direct customers that we have today are asking Nucor to take bigger shares, and that is, again, an exciting opportunity as we think about marrying up the investment strategy to where our long-term goals want to be in automotive.
Phil Gibbs:
I appreciate that. And then if I could ask one more, kind of a two-part. I guess what are you seeing right now in the oil and gas sector? I think one of your competitors essentially said the drilling side is getting better and the transmission side is wonky because of some failed pipelines. And then what are you also seeing in the SBQ supply chain?
Leon Topalian:
Sure. Maybe we'd begin with the end, Chad, if you want to maybe just provide a little backdrop. Chad Utermark is responsible for our engineered bar group. And Chad, why don't we start there, and then I'll touch on the oil and gas.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks, Leon, and Phil. Yes, overall, the SBQ market, which probably lagged a lot of our markets as we came into 2021, we're starting to see that strength come back. I would classify it as becoming strong and getting stronger, led by auto part. Obviously, there's -- we talked about some of the constraints on auto, but the heavy truck transportation, et heavy equipment, all those things, we're starting to see pickup, even the oil and gas. So overall, I'm optimistic as we move forward in the SBQ markets.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. And Phil, I'd just say, I mean, to your question around oil and gas, obviously, the weakest of the end markets through '20 and '21. Obviously, ongoing recovery in energy prices suggest improving OCTG and line pipe demand ahead, difficult to forecast as we move forward. We do see signs of life and some improved activity there, but I think all the end markets we serve, certainly the most or the longest to recover, I think that will continue through the rest of this year as we move into '22. We're cautiously optimistic that will continue to improve.
Operator:
And that concludes our Q&A session for today. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. I'd like to conclude today by once again thanking our Nucor teammates for your focused commitment to living our culture and how we take care of our team, customers, shareholders, and for delivering on our most important value, the health, safety and well-being of the entire Nucor family. Thank you for your interest in our company, and have a great day.
Operator:
And this concludes today's call. We do thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Certain statements made during the conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes that they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequentially filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call can speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our first quarter earnings call. Joining me today are the members of the Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Dave Sumoski, our Chief Operating Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Doug Jellison, responsible for DJJ and Logistics; Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and General Counsel; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; Dan Needham, responsible for Bar and Rebar Fabrication Products; Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for our enterprise-wide Commercial group; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. I want to take just a minute to congratulate Ray Napolitan on his upcoming retirement in June. Ray has been an invaluable part of the executive leadership team, and I will greatly miss his leadership, strategic vision and keen insights. I wish him and his wife, Jody, a long, healthy and happy retirement. Thank you both for your commitment and sacrifices during your 25 years with Nucor. And on behalf of our 26,000 team members, thank you. Craig Feldman will also be retiring in June. Craig has been a part of The David J. Joseph Company in Nucor for over 30 years, and I'd like to thank him for his commitment, dedication to the DJJ team and Nucor for three decades. Craig, we wish you and Sherry a very long, healthy, happy retirement. And on behalf of our entire team, thank you. As we continue to work toward our goal of becoming the safest steel company in the world, we are maintaining our focus, especially as our operations have ramped up across the company in response to strong steel demand. Knowing where to focus our efforts can bring tremendous improvement in safety performance. Looking at our safety data. Approximately 40% to 50% of our recordable injuries are hand related. To address this, we held a company-wide Hand Safety Week at the end of February. We are optimistic that our increased focus in this area will enable us to make meaningful progress toward our goal. I want to thank all of our teammates for your commitment to improve the most important value in our company, the safety, health and well-being of our entire Nucor family. This past quarter was our best quarter in Nucor's history. I'd like to thank our customers for the trust you place in us with each and every order, and I'd also like to thank our team who make extraordinary results like these possible. Net earnings per share of $3.10 far surpassed our previous quarterly record of $2.31 set back in the third quarter of 2008. Robust cash flow from operations during the quarter allowed Nucor to return $425 million to our shareholders while maintaining our strong liquidity position. Demand for our products remains quite strong, with healthy volumes and metal spreads across our diverse portfolio of products. Capacity utilization at our steel mills increased to 95% for the quarter from 87% in the fourth quarter of last year. Many of our product groups are running at or near full capacity. We have had some spare capacity in long products. We are adding shifts in many of our steel product facilities to meet robust market demand. It's gratifying to see such strong performance across all of Nucor. We are clearly reaping the rewards from our prior investments and the more strategic approaches we are taking with our key end-use markets. Most of the end-use markets we serve remain strong, and inventories remain lean across supply chains. We have greater certainty today that the current favorable demand outlook will persist through the rest of 2021. We are benefiting from our strategy of intentionally targeting our product capabilities at attractive subsegments of our various markets. Our latest project announcements continue in this vein, namely the new tube mill we are building in Kentucky and the new insulated panel facility in Utah. We also see indications that the strength in nonres construction is broadening out beyond the warehouse, data center and cold storage subsectors. The ABI Index turned positive in February after 11 consecutive months of contraction, and the Dodge Momentum Index recently registered 151.4, which I believe is the highest reading since 2018. Also, backlogs across our steel product segments are all very strong. Our fabricating partner customers are reporting strong demand and strong inquiry activity in the construction and fabrication markets. I'm particularly excited to see the business momentum being generated by our Construction Solutions team. We formed this group last year so we can develop deeper strategic relationships in the construction market and better leverage our diverse product offering. The team regularly interacts with a broad set of influencers, including owners, developers, architects and engineers. We also recently launched a trademark high-strength beam product called Aeos, a grade A913 beam. Aeos beams are produced efficiently from sustainable, recycled steel at our Nucor-Yamato Steel plant and allow for faster and lighter construction. Nucor-Yamato is the only producer of these grade A913, high-strength beams in North America. We are already realizing attractive orders from this effort and are optimistic that we will see many more opportunities as we leverage the unique capabilities of the Nucor portfolio, including Aeos. We are also pleased that President Biden has put forward an ambitious infrastructure plan. We look forward to working with the administration and Congress and are confident our country can make a meaningful investment with sustainable funding to rebuild our nation's infrastructure. Action is long overdue as the recent grade of C minus by the American Society of Civil Engineers' U.S. infrastructure report card illustrates. In the last 5 years, Nucor alone has melted, poured and shipped over 130 million tons of steel rebar, plate, structural beams, sheet and countless other steel products. We are well positioned and ready to help our nation build back better. Turning to the automotive market. We expect the industry to produce approximately 16 million vehicles this year. The shortage of semiconductors, severe weather impacts and other issues have hurt recent production volumes in the auto market. We expect the difficulties to continue into the third quarter. Even with these disruptions, our mills have been running full-out to satisfy customer requirements from the auto sector. It's also worth noting that light vehicle demand is very strong, and inventories are quite low. We expect that sector will be running hard to get caught up with the demand for at least the rest of the year. We continue to see strong demand in the renewable energy market, and we believe that the steel needs of this sector will grow rapidly in the coming years. The Biden administration has set a goal of deploying 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind power by 2030. This could require as much as 8 million tons of steel. We look forward to supplying the requirements of the renewable power sector with steel and steel products that have much lower levels of embedded CO2 emissions than those of competitors and are a natural fit for the renewable energy applications. We have the right capabilities to provide steel products to this market, and executing power purchase agreements like the ones we have concluded with Ørsted and EDF helps us to develop constructive commercial relationships in this sector while lowering our overall CO2 intensity even further. In other markets, agriculture, trucks and other heavy equipment are all showing strength. The oil and gas market is improving, with rig counts climbing gradually from the depressed levels seen last year. The appliance market is benefiting from the economic rebound in direct payments people are receiving as part of the COVID relief passed by Congress. Now I'd like to give you a brief update on the progress of several of our strategic growth projects. Following a pandemic-related delay, commissioning resumed last fall at our galvanizing line JV with JFE in Mexico. The team there is busy, trialing and qualifying product with automotive customers as well as shipping product for alternative end-use applications while this work proceeds. The commissioning of our new Gen 3 galvanizing line at Nucor Steel Arkansas is expected to occur in the third quarter, with prime production off that line to follow soon after. We are excited about the advanced capabilities this project will give the mill, and I think it is fair to say that our customers are excited as well. The expansion and modernization project at Nucor Steel Gallatin in Kentucky is on track to produce steel by the end of the year. To prepare for commissioning, the Gallatin mill will be shut down for 3 weeks sometime in the fourth quarter. We are anticipating a gradual ramp-up of the incremental capacity at Gallatin, expecting to achieve 1 million tons of incremental output from the upgraded facilities in 2022 and to achieve the full benefit of the added production capability of 1.4 million tons in 2023. We also remain on schedule with the construction of our new plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky. We see Brandenburg's commissioning time frame, which is scheduled for a start-up in late 2022, as ideally suited to serve the offshore wind market. Nucor Steel Brandenburg will be one of only a very few mills in the world capable of reliably supplying steel plate suited to offshore wind market applications and expectations. Now Jim Frias will provide more details about our record financial performance in the first quarter. Jim?
James Frias:
Thanks, Leon. First quarter earnings of $3.10 per diluted share were at the high end of our guidance range. Nucor's record quarterly earnings were driven by strong performances across our broad portfolio of steelmaking, downstream and raw materials businesses and highlights the success of our 26,000 team members at building a stronger and more profitable Nucor. The performance of our steel products segment was perhaps the biggest surprise of the quarter as it delivered improved earnings over its very strong fourth quarter results, countering the normal seasonal trend and overcoming the impact of a temporary margin squeeze due to the quick run-up of steel prices. The just completed quarter included some initial returns from our multiyear growth investment projects. Our Hickman, Arkansas sheet mill's specialty cold-rolling mill is rapidly expanding its portfolio of high-strength, lightweight products increasingly demanded by OEM customers. The mill ran at 111% of nameplate capacity in the first quarter, with cash flow and profit contribution well ahead of the project's capital authorization budget. Our new Gallatin, Kentucky hot band galvanizing line production rate in the first quarter was 116% of its design capacity, with cash flow and profit contribution substantially exceeding our capital budget projections. Our Gallatin teammates are building a strong portfolio of automotive and other customers in the underserved Midwest heavy-gauge, galvanized hot band market. The Sedalia, Missouri rebar micro mill completed its first year of production in February, with cash flow and profit contribution also significantly ahead of the project's budgeted performance. Sedalia's spooled rebar product continues to enjoy strong commercial success. Our second rebar micro mill, located in Frostproof, Florida, began production in December and achieved profitability for the month of March. We congratulate our Frostproof team for their incredibly fast ramp, achieving this significant milestone well ahead of schedule. Our Kankakee, Illinois merchant bar rolling mill completed equipment commissioning in December, product trials in February and achieved positive cash flow for the month of March. Further upgrades to Kankakee's melt shop are proceeding and on schedule for completion later this year. With its new capabilities, Nucor Steel Kankakee is well positioned in the heart of the Midwest MBQ market to serve our customers with a state-of-the-art mill and an unrivaled product portfolio. We are delighted with the successful ramp-up of these important new additions to new Nucor's capabilities. We believe this validates both our strategies and the team's consistent focus on execution. We are confident in these projects' prospects to continue generating attractive returns with reduced volatility throughout the economic cycle. We again generated strong operating cash flow during the first quarter, enabling us to fund our CapEx and to post free cash flow of about $217 million for the period. Financial strength continues to be a critical underpinning to our company's ability to grow long-term earnings power. At the close of the first quarter, our cash, short-term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled just under $3 billion. Total long-term debt was approximately $5.3 billion. Gross debt as a percent of total capital was 31%, while net debt represented only 13% of total capital. We generally seek to keep net debt to total capital within a range of 18% to 23%. We feel this is consistent with the strong investment-grade credit rating that Nucor has strategically maintained through economic cycles over the years. At present, of course, we are somewhat underleveraged. This reflects our conservative approach in early 2020 when the economic outlook was more uncertain. We will continue to manage to this target capitalization and will adjust going forward by returning excess capital to our shareholders just as we have in the past. We took some steps in that direction during the first quarter. Cash returned to shareholders was 45% of net income or $425 million, including the repurchase of 5.4 million shares at an average price slightly above $56 per share. And with the payment of our February quarterly dividend, Nucor has increased its base dividend for 48 consecutive years or every year since we first began paying dividends in 1973. Our highest capital allocation priority remains investing in our businesses to ensure our continued growth and long-term profitability. We continue to estimate total capital spending for 2021 of approximately $2 billion. Approximately 80% of the 2021 capital spending is for improved product capabilities and cost savings projects. About half of the anticipated total 2021 capital spending is for our 3 remaining major projects
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
Carlos De Alba:
Congrats on the strong results. Maybe you could -- I don't know if this is Leon or Jim, can you please comment on how do you see the ramp-up of the plate mill? I know that is still a little bit away, but it is quite important for the company. So with the strong demand that we may have -- we may see from offshore wind turbines, how do you see the ramp-up of this mill and the volume contribution in the coming quarter -- in the coming years from 2023 and onwards?
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Carlos, yes, thank you for the question, and we appreciate the congrats. We're really proud of our team's execution to continue to take care of our customer base, and we're incredibly excited about our facility in Kentucky. The Brandenburg plate mill, we believe, ideally positions Nucor to be the strong market leader in plate in the largest plate-consuming region in the United States. The team has done a phenomenal job there, but I'm going to turn the rest of the question over to Al Behr, our EVP of Plate Products, and give you a little more detail and background on the start-up and how that team has maintained its ramp-up in spite of the challenges of 2020 and into '21. Al?
Allen Behr:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Carlos. Appreciate the opportunity to talk about that project. It's on budget. It's on track for a start-up in late 2022. So everything is going just exactly as we would plan. You mentioned the offshore wind market. That's obviously something we're watching very carefully and very excited about. As Leon mentioned, the positioning of Brandenburg within that market is truly ideal. There's many things about the capability of that mill that generate competitive advantage for us. One of them is the width. With the capability up to 14 feet, that's an advantage within the offshore market as well as many others. The exceptional quality capabilities out of that mill create advantage for that market as well as the grade and chemistry range. It's got an outstanding grade range, and it's really squarely aimed at the offshore wind market. So we are watching that very, very carefully. The timing of the mill coming up at the end of '22, based on the information we have about planned projects, announced projects, permitted projects, all offshore wind, is really just ideal. So very, very exciting project for us. We're excited to get it running. Appreciate your question about it and the chance to talk about it.
Carlos De Alba:
And could you comment maybe what is the production that you expect to see out of that mill in 2023?
Leon Topalian:
Carlos, what I would tell you is the ramp-up is -- we expect to come on very quickly. As that team navigates the challenges of commissioning, we expect '23 to be a pretty strong year. I don't want to quote numbers, but I certainly think we'll be approaching 75% to 80% of nameplate easily by the end of '23.
Carlos De Alba:
Perfect. Maybe I missed it, but what is the outlook for CapEx in the coming years, particularly in 2020 -- second half of this year and 2022?
James Frias:
We're going to spend about $2 billion this year. That's what our interim projections say. Roughly $1 billion is going to be spent over the next 3 quarters on our 3 big projects that are coming near completion, different phases of completion
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.
Emily Chieng:
My first one is just on what you're seeing in end market demand from the construction segment in particular -- and in particular, the nonres segment. It sounds like your order books are still very full. Are you taking share from others? Is that a partial restocking of the supply chain? Or is it really true demand strength that we're seeing there? And if there's any particular segment outside of the warehousing component that you think could maybe been a surprise to the upside here, that would be helpful.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'll kick us off, Emily. Thank you for the question. And maybe ask Chad Utermark, our EVP of our Fabricated Construction Products, Vulcraft/Verco and our building systems, to answer as well. And so what I would tell you is approximately 46% of Nucor's products move into the construction sector. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we're really excited about our launch of the Construction Solutions team. And what that team is doing is really positioning Nucor differently to better utilize the breadth and the capabilities of Nucor. We are not about getting bigger in capacity. We are about enhanced capabilities to serve our customers. And by launching the Construction Solutions arm and the branding of products like Aeos, it truly differentiates us in the marketplace. And so that value capture now in helping architects, engineers, fabricators, designers to recognize how to fully utilize the complement of Nucor's offerings is really a unique strategic advantage. As you think about the backlog, the strength of the nonres construction market, all of those indicators that we track are very, very strong. But again, as we think about how we leverage the breadth of that market, it's something that we spend a great deal of time on. And again, I'm very proud of the Construction Solutions team, what MaryEmily and her team have done in that market. But Chad, maybe just provide a little more color and backdrop into the segments that you're responsible for.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks, Leon, and thanks, Emily, for the question. As you know, we have many downstream businesses, and they touch many aspects of the nonres construction market. As we've been mentioning for several quarters, we are really excited about the resiliency of the nonres construction market. As we look out forward, we believe nonres construction will remain solid through 2021 and into 2022. Our quoting activity has been and continues to be very robust. Furthermore, most of our businesses have very strong backlogs. And in some of our downstream businesses, we have all-time record backlogs. As we move through Q2 and into the second half of the year, we do expect to see significant earnings from these businesses. You asked about specific markets. And obviously, warehouses, distribution centers, data centers are driving this demand. But it's really across almost all sectors we're seeing solid demand. ABI just came out and talked about residential, commercial, industrial institution. So the nonres industry is firing on most all cylinders.
Emily Chieng:
Great. That's helpful color. And if I can follow up with one question. Across the steel industry globally, clearly, decarbonization is a big theme to look forward to. We also saw one of your peers come out yesterday with a net-zero target for the longer term. I guess clearly, Nucor being an EAF operator and recycler has a big advantage here. But aside from the PPAs that you're signing, is there anything that we should be focused on from an ESG perspective that you'd highlight to come?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Absolutely, Emily. And as we've discussed in the past, Nucor is the largest recycler. We're committed to sustainability. We believe today, we're one of the most sustainable steelmakers on the planet. So the things like the PPA agreements that we've signed are just part of the steps that we're going to continue to take to make sure we're on the very leading edge of the cleanest, most sustainable steelmaking -- steelmakers in the world. And so in the coming months, you're going to see Nucor launch a very open and public conversation about releasing our Scope 1 and 2 emissions as well as setting very clear targets for our improvements and the expectations we expect to see in the coming years. So again, stay tuned. That's going to come out again in the next few months where we're going to highlight and make some very strong commitments to what we think is already best-in-class to become even better.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with Exane.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I've got two separate questions. First, on raw materials and then secondly, on working capital, please. The raw material segment obviously had really remarkable performance this past quarter. Can you walk us through the drivers of that, either with regards to scrap recycling or the DRI business? And with increasing expectations for potentially kind of a tighter-for-longer prime scrap market, can you give us some update on how your DRI volumes are progressing? And any upside to that looking forward? I'll come back on working capital, please.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Yes. Well, actually, I'll turn this over to Doug Jellison and let him begin and maybe chime in at the end. Doug?
Douglas Jellison:
Okay. Seth, thanks for the question. The team through the quarter did a great job of safely approaching what was a pretty challenging quarter. As you saw the increase in demand, short-term weather challenges, transportation challenges. But we've spent a great deal of time preparing for these things, and the proof was in the execution in this quarter. Our recycling yards had a record volume quarter. Our DRIs had solid production. From a financial standpoint, there is a lag as the markets go up, and our raw materials are based at the lower cost as we come in. So the first quarter will be our best performance, but we expect to see strong performance throughout the rest of the quarter. In terms of DRI, we -- they have been performing well. We'll expect them to continue to perform well. We do have some scheduled outages in May and December so volumes will be off a little bit, but those are planned and anticipated adjustments.
James Frias:
You had a question about working capital?
Seth Rosenfeld:
Yes, please. Obviously, very significant investment in working capital in Q1. That would be a record for your business. Can you walk us through what we might expect looking through Q2 and into the back half of the year? Do you think there's a need for further cyclical investment in working capital? Have you been able to reset the value of inventories, for example, after that big Q1 move?
James Frias:
Yes. So receivables were up a fairly large percentage, and it was driven by a combination of volume, which was up 13.5%, and prices, up like 21%. And so we would think next quarter, volumes will be close to the same. And so we're going to just have a price driver. We will see some increased pricing. So how much receivables go up will depend on how much pricing goes up. We generally collect receivables in about 30 days. So what's outstanding on our balance sheet is roughly 30 days of sales to our outside customers. Relative to inventory, our inventories went up in the neighborhood of 6%. Of course, the cost per ton went up a significant amount because of scrap and pig iron and DRI prices were -- being up as well. And so inventories are, again, likely not to go up in volume next quarter. I think they're going to be relatively flat. And so we shouldn't see quite the same increase in inventories that we saw in the first quarter, should be much smaller. And receivables will be less too, but maybe closer to the same just because we're going to have another big increase in pricing in Q2 compared to Q1.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to probe a little bit more. The first quarter, as expected, sheet volumes up, makes sense. But some of the long products, although they were better than your second to fourth quarter, run rate were still below year ago levels. So just wanted a little color on that and if we should expect that to go up going forward based on the comment just now on kind of flatter volumes. So kind of wanted to get a little color on that. And then if I could, on top of that, can you comment on why utilization has seemed to barely budge in the industry, given the volume improvements and restarts that we hear about and customers clamoring for supply? I'd really like to hear your take on that.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll try to start with the last. And I certainly can't speak to our overall competitor utilization rates. But again, moving from roughly 85%, 86% last quarter and the fourth quarter of 2020 to over 95% for this quarter for us was a significant move. And we saw much of that come in plate and -- or plate and sheet. But also our structural mills, rebar mills are -- moved significantly up in their utilization rates. We're seeing incredibly strong backlogs at Nucor-Yamato Steel and Berkeley beams and so the backlog side of the structural market. And I'm not sure I fully understood the question you were driving at structurally, but that demand and the backlogs there are not historic, but they're very, very strong, probably the strongest since the last decade anyway. So as we see that moving forward, that sector, those markets that they serve, we think, will not only be robust but continue well into the year. Al, anything you'd add on the structural side?
Allen Behr:
Yes. Just a couple of things. Timna, you picked up on it, right, We were slowing up a little bit in the first quarter. There's a couple of things in the beam group. One was the winter storm that came through and impacted Texas and Arkansas. That impacted our Arkansas beam mill to some extent. And the other thing was a project from fourth quarter that we highlighted, a significant modernization upgrade of that mill. That was tremendously successful, but it's got such a broad product range that it stretched into January before we had fully shaken out the entire product cycle. So that mill today is running as efficiently as it ever has. That's been a very successful upgrade. So to your point about Q2, no, we expect Q2 run rates to be excellent. Leon made the point about backlogs. They've improved significantly, even just in the last couple of weeks and are at an all-time record. But the year-over-year number ticked down just a little bit, as you pointed out, and those are the reasons why.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. That's super helpful. I wanted to ask another question, if I could, switching gears a bit on the green steel topic. So obviously, as you said, Nucor has always been green, and that's part of your whole history. But I just wanted to get a little bit of sense on the customers that's -- how many of your customers can you quantify that are actually clamoring for green steel? Is there a way to quantify that? And then on the renewable side, I know you mentioned 8 million for wind, and I hear wind is indeed -- that New Jersey is going to be the Saudi Arabia of wind, I guess. So there's a lot of opportunity potentially there. But is that 8 million tons over time? Is that over a couple of producers? Can you help us get a sense of that and solar and that opportunity?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I think there's 2 shifts. And MaryEmily, if there's stuff I miss on the solar side, please jump in. But as we think about the wind, there are right now 2 very meaningful, large-scale offshore wind projects that are approved up, and we'll begin starting production of those in '22, '23. So as that ramps up, really, we see the time frame of '22 to '26, '27, '28 is kind of that build-out. So yes, that 8 million tons will be over a period of several years, 3, 4, 5 years. We don't know exactly. What I do -- what we do believe is with the President signing an executive order commissioning 30,000 megawatts of offshore power, that's going to drive an awful lot more activity behind just these 2 projects. So we expect that to ramp up, and that number could increase as we move forward. Again, with the start-up of Brandenburg in late '22, it really is positioned incredibly well to capitalize and take full advantage of that opportunity in the marketplace. On the solar side, a little bit like we mentioned in the Construction Solutions team. And actually, I won't steal MaryEmily's thunder. Why don't you just kind of share with Timna what we're doing in that and how the solar go-to-market strategy is being run?
MaryEmily Slate:
Absolutely. Thanks for the question, Timna. Solar is absolutely a target market just like construction, and we see that as a growth market. We'll see growth over the next few years, especially with the administration change. And if you saw the announcement on [Technical Difficulty] a significant amount of the production off that mill will actually target the solar industry for torque tubes. And it's wonderfully positioned with the Gallatin galvanizing line there. Feeding that mill will make it such an efficient supply chain. So our expectation -- just like Construction Solutions, we've got a group that's working with those companies as they grow to provide solutions to make them get to market better and faster.
Leon Topalian:
And Timna, maybe the last comment I'd make is I appreciate that we have been green. I've been part of our company now for 25 years. I can remember when I started with Nucor at Berkeley, when we're building it, making decisions to put equipment in, that wasn't regulated, that wasn't required by state or federal law. We did it because it was the right thing to do. But one of the things we've not done as good a job on is actually telling that story much more proactively, much more offensively minded and sharing our data much more openly. You're going to see a significant step for Nucor to do that. And again, in the coming months this year, to be very transparent, again, not just verbally, but through the commitment of sharing our full Scope 1 and 2 emissions and how that impacts because we believe we can stand up to anyone in the world and also helping the industry to say, hey, we've got to do better, and we think we can.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Just wanted to quickly follow up on Seth's question about your scrap market, especially on prime. I mean I'm obviously sure you've seen kind of all the commentary out there, some people believing that there's going to be a super tight prime market and EAF producers are going to be high cost from here on in and so on and so forth. I'm assuming I kind of know the answer to the question, but where do you come out on all of this in terms of a tight prime market and potentially some supply relief? And related to that question as well, more from a technical point of view, do you have any ability to -- let's assume for a moment it does become a very tight prime market. Do you have the ability to load other feedstock into the furnaces like DRI or pig or anything like that, that kind of offset any tightness in prime prices going forward?
James Frias:
Yes. Let me start in answering that, Andreas. The second part of your question about product mix, yes, we have flexibility. We use most of the prime scrap and substitutes, which include pig iron, DRI, HBI. We use most of those products at the sheet mills. We can use some at the plate mills as well and some of the other mills, but it's primarily consumed at the sheet mills, and we're already using those products. And we think we've got the most flexible supply chain, probably because a lot of our larger mills are on deepwater ports where they can be a barge or other vessels, receive shipments not only from domestic suppliers, but from offshore suppliers very efficiently, again, because of our positioning of our locations being on the waters oftentimes. But yes, we mix -- we change the mix of feedstocks based on what's available and what the costs are on a fairly regular basis. And so that's a part of our strategic business plan. In terms of tightness in prime scrap markets long term, we saw this coming several years ago, and that's why we started building DRI plants. So we've got 2 DRI plants that help give us an option in our supply chain. And when it makes sense to use more HBI, we max out the usage of what we can use in HBI. The follow-on question we often get is should we build more -- I'm sorry, I said HBI, I meant DRI. A follow-up question we get is should we build more DRI plants. And our view right now is not today. If we have so much DRI that we keep prime scrap prices depressed, we're helping our competitors with our capital investment. If the price for prime scrap is tight and we get an advantage that we can capture with profits at the DRI plant, then we have a competitive advantage against other mini mills that make sheet steel. And I would say that look at our profits, let's see what profits get published by integrated mills. And then ask me if you really think that we have a cost disadvantage against integrateds.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Right. Right. Sorry, go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
No, no, no, please. I was just going to really reiterate the exact point Jim did. Let our results speak for themselves, and you can decide where the cost structure is in terms of our delivery and our performance.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
That makes a lot of sense. I appreciate the answer. And maybe one follow-up question on the technical side. I mean is there any way of saying how low you can go on prime consumption? I realize every furnace is different and so on and so forth. But I mean, can you go to 0%? Can you go 20%? Is there any way to kind of think about that going forward? Could you exclude prime altogether if you wanted to?
David Sumoski:
Yes. This is Dave Sumoski. Certainly, the product mix is going to be very dependent. On the bar side, we can go with zero prime. We do go with zero prime in almost all cases. On the sheet side, yes, we can vary that depending -- but you're probably going to still need to be in that 30% range, but we can move that around.
James Frias:
Yes. We can use substitutes to -- in the neighborhood of 50%, which with 30% prime -- 80% of prime against 20% of obsolete.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
That's very clear. I appreciate that. And then final question, just shifting gear as well. Obviously, steel prices continue to go up. Any updated kind of thoughts on capital allocation in terms of dividends, share buybacks, so on and so forth versus your commentary during the fourth quarter?
James Frias:
Yes. I think we -- if you listened to my comments, I talked about for the first time, we've actually published our targeted net debt to capital range as being 18% to 22%. We've not published that in the past. That was a new disclosure that hopefully folks picked up on. And our net debt capital number is like 13% right now so we're technically underleveraged. And so I would expect us to continue buying back stock as the year progresses. We're going to be very, very profitable for the balance of the year. And we're going to have plenty of free cash flow, and we don't want to get further underleveraged.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
Question just here on the intercompany eliminations. They were obviously sizable. And I know that tends to move around. And with the inflation that we saw intra-quarter, that clearly was something that produced an outsized number. Jim, where do you expect that to shuffle as the year goes on? Did we see peak intercompany eliminations in Q1?
James Frias:
We did. Just hang on, let me find my cheat sheet so I can give you a more detailed color because I do have a cheat sheet on that. Bear with me. Okay, so total intercompany elims -- corporate elims were $451 million. The pieces were intercompany profits was $183 million. So that was $175 million more than it was in last year's first quarter. It was $125 million more than it was in the fourth quarter of last year. So that was a big number, and it's going to be lower in the second quarter by a fair amount. We're not targeting a specific number, but that's going to come down. Profit sharing, which is 10% of pretax profits, was significant. It was $123 million. We're going to make more money next quarter, so that's going to go up. So based on your projection, you should put more money in that pool. Other incentive comp that isn't profit sharing related, that's -- other incentive comp was up $50 million to $60 million. And that's probably going to be in a similar range other than in the second quarter, we grant stock compensation RSUs. And generally, there's a $20 million to $30 million hit because of the timing of that. That just happened in the second quarter so that will be extra. Other corporate expenses were up about $40 million. I would expect that's going to be flat with next quarter. And interest expense was -- I'm sorry, it was $41 million, I expect it to be the same next quarter. And interest expense was $37 million. I expect that to be about the same next quarter.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. And then as it relates to nonresidential construction, some of those leading indicators that you guys said are pointing to some growth. In 9 to 12 months, you have the lagging indicators. Well, actually, there are some that are leading as well. The starts data got hit hard last year. There are clearly parts of the nonres market that are better, to your point, deck and joist was up a lot, but rebar fab was down a lot. So I mean, help us just kind of put this together, a lot of mixed signals out there right now.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Phil, this is Chad again. And you are correct. We have a portfolio of downstream businesses that serve different markets and some are hotter, demand is stronger. But in general, across the businesses of joist and deck and building systems, I look at our backlog and I listened to our customers, and we are sitting on record -- high-level record backlogs through the rest of this year and already starting to look at next year. And so we're excited about the future in that segment of the business. And I think as the company starts to reopen -- you're already seeing people going out to eat more and wanting to go to concerts and things as more people get vaccinated. So I think that commercial world that was so strong for so long will come back. I don't know if it will come back to the levels we were seeing. But an infrastructure bill, there's a lot of rhetoric around it. I don't know that it will happen, but we expect it to. And I would hope that, that would add fuel to the strength of this nonres market. So if someone else can jump in.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Phil, the only other thing I'd add is I think that your comment is accurate, but it's also relative. As you look at the restructuring Nucor has done over the last couple of years with our fabricated construction projects groups, while we don't break out the individual profitability of certain segments, I would just tell you that their profitability and what they've contributed to Nucor is as strong as it's been maybe ever. So they're realizing some very strong returns in their businesses. And again, we expect that to continue.
James Frias:
Chad, a little bit more on rebar fab. We had a fabulous profit quarter in rebar fab. The volumes may have been down, but that, I think, was more timing related. And could you speak to that a little bit, the strength in the rebar fab market as well or -- I'm sorry, Dan Needham, I pointed the wrong person, I forgot.
Daniel Needham:
I can certainly do that, Phil. This is Dan Needham. I appreciate the question that you gave. But actually, right now, we're sitting on record backlogs for our rebar fabrication. So the outlook in terms of demand and projects coming about is looking very good for us at this point.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. I appreciate that. And then I have -- about -- if I remember, 10 years ago, maybe even longer, it could have been closer to 15 years ago, there was a big increase in usage of steel 2x4s and things of that nature when lumber prices got high during the housing boom. Are you guys seeing any pushback to steel in terms of some of this wood? Would you spec into some steel as lumber just goes astronomically higher? And I know wood had obviously taken some share in some applications over the last 5 or 6 years. But curious in terms of some of those conversations with lumber being unamenable in a lot of cases in the short run.
David Sumoski:
Phil, this is Dave Sumoski again. I'll start that one off. All commodities are going up in price. So the cost to build buildings with both wood and steel would be rising. So -- and it's going to take some time to switch back. So we haven't seen any switchback yet, but we talk about it a lot and try to understand that there's some opportunities either way.
Chad Utermark:
Phil, one last comment I just want to make. In the ABI, you see the numbers, and obviously, I think Leon mentioned those in the script that 55.6, one of the highest indexes we've seen since '07. But there's another marker that they published, and it's the pace of inquiries. And that number is almost 67, and that is the highest number they've seen since 1999. So just the amount of inquiries coming in is a pretty strong signal to us that there is this pent-up demand to build things and to expand across many different platforms. And yes, there are certain markets that may be a little weaker or a little stronger. But overall, the view I see is it's pretty strong.
Philip Gibbs:
Chad, would that pace of inquiries also include the potential for people just asking for rebids and requotes and obviously coming up lame with the fact that the market keeps running on them?
Chad Utermark:
I think it could. It could. But again, with our direct conversations with customers, and we see cancellations on our backlogs, and we're just not seeing them at this point.
James Frias:
This is architectural index. Architects don't work for free and give quotes. Steel companies give quotes all the time that don't turn into orders. But architects don't work for free. So if they're getting inquiries, I think it's not just people getting quotes.
Operator:
We'll take our final question in the queue from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
All right. I wanted to switch gears a little bit on the longer-term capital allocation thoughts. Obviously, low-hanging fruit from a restart perspective is kind of done now. The pipeline on the greenfield side is fairly well defined and getting to being -- to the point where it's behind the industry in a certain respect. Obviously, Nucor over the last few years shifted to a much more aggressive growth profile, including steelmaking capacity. So my question really is, considering the landscape, everything you see out there, should we be thinking that Nucor will continue to add steelmaking capacity, meaningful steelmaking capacity like we've seen with Gallatin and Brandenburg? And if so, when should we start hearing about that?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. David, thank you for the question. I'll kick it off. And Jim, if there's anything you want to add. Number one, we're coming off a capital campaign over the last several years of over $4 billion. Our #1 focus today is to safely and reliably bring that capacity online, which culminates with the start-up of Nucor Brandenburg in late 2022. So our very short-term focus is to execute really well and return significant amounts of capital back to our shareholders. At the same time, David, we're a growth company. We're not satisfied with the position where we're at today. So I and our team are challenged to think about where do we grow. I can tell you that we're looking hard to continue to invest in our downstream operations to position us well for the future. As I mentioned earlier, our investment strategy isn't to get bigger by volume. It's to add strategic capability and how we differentiate ourselves from our competition by doing so. Our investment in Hickman, Arkansas, to be the only EAF producer anywhere to make a full Gen 3 product for the automotive industry, is going to be a differentiator for Nucor. So we're going to continue to look hard on how we continue to grow for the long term. The investment in Brandenburg isn't a 1- or 2-year play. It's a 30- or 40- or 50-year play. And so as we think about the opportunities before us, again, it begins with executing really well in culminating and finishing the $4 billion sort of campaign we've been on. And then how do we think about growth and where does that need to include. And I won't give much more detail other than to tell you we're looking really hard and continuing how to position Nucor for the future.
James Frias:
The only thing I'd add, Leon, is it's going to dovetail with what MaryEmily talked about, the idea that we have commercial strategies like serving renewables, like serving certain sectors in the marketplace. And so it's going to be driven partly by where we see those opportunities to better serve customers and leveraging to those markets with a portfolio that gives them a more complete solution than they can get any place else.
David Gagliano:
Okay. That's helpful. In terms of -- just from a timing perspective, these are decent lead time projects, I'm assuming. So when would you -- or when should we expect to hear more from Nucor? If there are some big greenfield projects in the works, when should we expect to hear more from Nucor?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Look, I don't want to get very specific, David. What I would tell you is when we're ready to announce those, you'll be the first to hear. And so as we -- we've got to think through that strategy. All of our executives are challenged and committed to delivering growth in each of their respective areas. And so I'm excited about our future. I'm excited about the discipline we maintained in executing our capital strategy, and that's going to continue as we move forward. So we'll be very deliberate, but we're not going to stay where we're at. We're not going to stand still. We will continue to grow.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. Before we sign off, let me just say that Nucor has been preparing for years to thrive in economic conditions like the one we're experiencing now. I want to again thank my Nucor team for all you do and the focus on keeping all of our facilities running safely and smoothly so that we can all benefit from the market opportunities available to us today. And thank you to our customers for the opportunity to serve you and your needs both today and tomorrow. Through the challenges presented by the pandemic last year, we learned how resilient our company and business model are. We said repeatedly that we wouldn't just come out of this crisis. We would survive this crisis. We would thrive coming out, and here we are. I want to thank everyone for your interest in our company. We truly appreciate the support from our shareholders, customers, suppliers, communities and team. Thank you, and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although, Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to the forward-looking statements may be found in the Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call can speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon. And thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. We hope everyone on the call was having a good start to the year and staying safe and healthy. The last 12 months have been incredibly challenging on so many different levels. The pandemic has impacted businesses and markets and taken a tremendous toll on so many that of cared for and lost loved ones during this time. The distractions we have faced as a nation and as a company are significant. Yet the Nucor team has never lost its way in delivering the safest year in our history. Let me repeat that again. 2020 was the safest year in the history of our company. I'm extremely grateful for the hard work, dedication, ownership of our nearly 27,000 team members who made this result possible. While there still is a great deal of work ahead of us in our journey to become the world safest steel company. I'm more convinced than ever that this team will accomplish our goal. To our Nucor teammates, thank you. I'm proud for you all. Well done. Now let's make 2021 our safest year ever. Joining me today on the call are the members of the Nucor's executive team including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer, Dave Sumoski, Chief Operating Officer, Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products, Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials, Doug Jellison, responsible for DJJ and Logistics, Greg Murphy, responsible for Business Services and General Counsel; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products, Rex Query, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products, MaryEmily Slate, responsible for our Commercial Strategy, Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products and Dan Needham, who will be joining our Charlotte team on February 1st and be responsible for Bar Products. At the end of the year we know several changes to our executive team. Dave Sumoski was promoted to Chief Operating Officer. Dave has been with Nucor since 1995 and has led multiple steel product groups and strategic initiatives, most recently combining our domestic rebar steel mill and fabrication businesses. Dave is uniquely positioned to help Nucor continue to build lasting partnerships while executing our enterprise-wide strategy. MaryEmily Slate has taken on a new role as Executive Vice President for Commercial. This is the first time we've had an EVP level leader in this world with Nucor. The purpose is to enhance our ability to focus on our key markets and to better connect with our customers. Meeting the future needs of our customers, while maintaining and maximizing the benefits of the broad and diversified offering of Nucor will be a vital function of MaryEmily's team as we move forward. I'd also like to welcome for new team members to our executive team, Rex Query, Doug Jellison, Greg Murphy and Dan Needham. Each of these executive management team promotions will enhance our ability to serve our customers and our shareholders. Business conditions remain strong in the fourth quarter with improving pricing and healthy volumes across our diverse product portfolio. A particular note, utilization rates of their sheet mills and plat mills continued her sharp upturn in the fourth quarter. While we were pleased with our operating performance and cash flow for the period, our earnings were impacted by non-cash charges, which were more than offset by tax benefits recognized in the quarter. The most substantial of these were related to our agreement exit from the diverter for Nucor joint-venture and the impairment charge writing down the value of our Castrip operations, both of which impacted our steel mill segment earnings. The capabilities of our new state-of-the-art cold mill and the generation free galvanizing line we have under construction a Nucor Arkansas have diminished our utilization of Castrip. We do plan on continuing to fully support existing customers, as well as the technology to further improve Castrip's product offerings for Castrip licensees. The non-cash charge that we recorded upon exiting the Duferdofin Nucor joint venture was actually more than offset by a tax benefit related to our investment. So it did not hurt our net income for the quarter. Jim Frias will elaborate more in his opening remarks. Turning now to comment on 2020 as a whole. The year ended up much stronger than anyone would have anticipated when the pandemic first took hold of our global economy in March of last year. Our team and our business model proved to be incredibly resilient, and we were able to take advantage of this stronger than expected recovery because of the Nucor team doing an excellent job keeping our mills running reliably and safely throughout the volatility that characterize 2020. This allowed us to reliably fulfill our customer's requirements. Our focus remains on continuing to deliver a differentiated value proposition to meet and exceed our customers needs. Looking at specific end use markets, construction remained strong throughout the pandemic, and automotive was quick to recover in the second half of the year after shutting down in the second quarter. Together, these two markets accounted for nearly two-thirds of steel consumption. We are aware of certain leading indicators signaling a downturn in non-res construction activity. But so far, we don't see much evidence of that. Our company is well positioned in attractive sub-segments of the non res construction market. There are areas of strength, most notably warehouses and data centers that may not be fully reflected in the ABI and other indicators. We have worked to build relationships in these sub segments that are bright spots, ensuring that we are providing the best solutions across steelmaking and steel products to serve those customers. We are cautiously optimistic that a significant infrastructure spending bill will be passed by Congress and signed by the new President this year. After years of talk, this must get done. We are still driving on roads and bridges designed and built during the Eisenhower administration. This is not sustainable. We would not be surprised if a funding bill focused in part on green infrastructure spending, including renewable power generation and transmission. Nucor is well-positioned to meet our country's needs of environmentally friendly steel and steel products. With roughly 50% of our steel use in the construction sector, there is arguably no company more poised and ready to meet the needs of rebuilding our country, the Nucor. In the automotive market, we believe demand should continue its rebound. We think 2021 light vehicle production in North America will be around 16 million vehicles. Having wrapped up the fall contract season, we feel good about our prospects for continuing share gains in the automotive market. The investments we've made at our sheet mills in Arkansas and in Kentucky to expand our production of value added products are paying off. Demand from the oil and gas sector continues to be weak, even as oil prices have been rising along with many other commodities. I think that significant continued improvement in the market is going to depend on how quickly vaccines can get out to a large number of people, and how long it takes for commuting and travel patterns to approach pre pandemic levels. Strong demand growth from the renewable energy sector has partially offset the weakness in oil. Our sales to the renewable power sector have been very strong this year with steelmaking segment orders related to these markets growing by double digits compared to the 2019 total. The renewable power market is one Nucor is targeting. And many of our steel and steel products are essential to its continued build out. We rely primarily on recycled steel to make these products and they themselves are 100% recyclable. This fact positions us well as a supplier of choice. here as we see sustainability in product transparency becoming a more important factor in product sourcing decisions in the renewable power sector and in most other end use markets. We're also seeing signs that other unused markets will rebound from this past year is to press levels including heavy duty trucks, heavy equipment in agriculture. Turning to our strategic growth projects we continue to make excellent progress on them during the fourth quarter. Our new rebar micro mill in Frostproof, Florida started up operations on schedule in December. Congratulations to the entire Nucor steel Florida team for getting this new steel mill up and running on time and for doing it safely. This past October, we celebrated the groundbreaking of our new steel plate mill in Kentucky. Our Nucor Steel Brandenburg team has done a great job keeping the project on schedule throughout this year, and we are moving at full speed to bring the state-of-the-art plate mill to market during the fourth quarter of 2022. We're also making great progress on our expansion project at our Gallatin sheet mill. The expansion project is expected to start up in the second half of this year. With regard to some of our facilities that are in operation, I'm pleased to report the new pickle galvanizing line and Gallatin had an excellent first full year of operation despite the pandemic shipping 39% more times than we projected when we approve the project. Year one profitability was also ahead of plan. Gallatin's entry into the value added coated sheet market has proven very timely, with the strong flat-rolled market conditions that emerged in the second half of 2020 and are continuing into Q1 2021. We have experienced very strong customer acceptance of Gallatin's coated product as we further develop target markets that include automotive, solar, tubing, roll forming, grain storage, culvert and cooling towers. Also the new coal mill and Nucor Steel Arkansas has gotten off to a strong start with shipments almost 30% ahead of our initial plan for the mill. Strong customer acceptance rates following trials were conducted throughout 2020, mean that the new mill is now booked out for this year at 85% of its nameplate capacity for contract customers. We are looking forward to running our first prime coil off our new Gen 3 galv line at Arkansas later this year. This is slightly behind our original schedule, due primarily to the slowdown in capital expenditures we instituted around the beginning of the pandemic. Our new rebar micro mill in Sedalia has also exceeded our expectations. The team there generated a solid operating profit during the most recent quarter, and its full rebar product continues to be well received by our customers. At our galvanizing line joint venture with JFE in Mexico, we are backup running after a government mandated shutdown and beginning to ship coils to automotive customers. Congratulations to the team there. Our Kankakee, Illinois bar mill completed commissioning of its new MBQ rolling mill in December. While the timeline of this project was slightly extended due to COVID related disruptions. Customer acceptance of the new products has been extremely strong. We expect to achieve positive cash flow from this investment in Q1. Construction on upgrades to Kankakee melt shop, including a new caster ladle stir station will begin in earnest in February, with final commissioning of this equipment expected in Q4 of this year. This investment will significantly improve the energy efficiency of the Kankakee mill. Before I turn the call over to Jim, let me give a shout out to our teammates a Louisiana DRI operations. As many of you are aware we took some downtime at Louisiana in 2019 and have invested approximately $200 million to enhance operational reliability there. It is really paid off. In 2020 the Nucor Steel Louisiana team set new records for production, shipping, and operating hours. Most importantly, our team there accomplished all of this while operating safely for more than 450 consecutive days. Later this quarter, we will finish our work improving Louisiana's ore yard. With that let me turn the call over to Jim to provide more details about our financial performance and outlook for the first part of 2021. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Fourth quarter earnings of $1.30 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $1.15 to $1.20 per diluted share. As detailed in our news release, results for the just completed quarter included a number of non-operational items that were not included in our guidance. After tax effects, again, for the items not included in our guidance, the total impact was produced net income by just under $34 million, or approximately $0.11 per diluted share. Earnings significantly exceed our guidance as the pace of margin expansion at our steel mills surpassed our expectations. Conditions improved for many of our businesses throughout the quarter and now are the strongest they've been in some years. As Leon mentioned, and as detailed in our news release, we are able to claim tax deductions related to our investment in Duferdofin Nucor joint venture that more than offset the related loss on assets we recorded in the fourth quarter. Cash provided by operating activities for full year 2020 was $2.7 billion. Nucor's free cash flow or cash provided by operations minus capital spending was $1.2 billion in 2020, comfortably exceeding cash dividends paid to the stockholders of $492 million. Over the last three years, Nucor has generated $3.9 billion of free cash flow, even as we reinvested $4 billion in our businesses. As mentioned on previous calls, we have intensified our focus on maintaining appropriate working capital levels and reducing the asset base we require to generate strong profitability. I am happy to report that even as steel market demand and pricing has rebounded strongly in recent months, our tons of raw material inventory are actually down by more than 6% from the prior year end. At the close of the fourth quarter, our cash, short term investments and restricted cash holdings totaled just under $3.2 billion. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which matures in April of 2023. Total long term debt including the current portion was approximately $5.3 billion. Gross debt as a percent of total capital was 32%, while net debt represented 13% of total capital. The flexibility provided by Nucor's low cost operating model and financial strength continues to be a critical underpinning to our company's ability to grow long term earnings power and return capital to our shareholders. Dividends and share repurchases total $531 million, or 74% of net income during 2020. And with the dividend increase announced in December, Nucor has increased its base dividend for 48 consecutive years, every year since we first began paying dividends in 1973. Speaking of growing long term earnings power, let me take a moment to provide a brief rundown on where we stand on some of our organic growth projects. Three projects started operations in 2019. A new specialty called rolling mill at our Arkansas sheet mill, a rolling mill modernization at our Ohio rebar mill and a hot band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill. Another four projects started production during 2020. Our rebar micro mill in Missouri, our Illinois merchant bar rolling mill, our joint venture sheet steel galvanizing line in Mexico and our Florida rebar micro mill. The remaining three projects are the expansion and modernization of our Kentucky sheet mill, our generation 3 flexible galvanizing line at our Arkansas sheet mill and our Kentucky plate mill. At the close of 2020, remaining capital expenditures for these three are approximately $1.9 billion. With the Kentucky plate mill project representing about three-fourths of that total. We expect that Nucor's total capital spending for 2021 will be in the area of $2 billion. Approximately 80% of the 2021 spending is to improve product capabilities and reduced costs. Turning to the outlook for the first quarter of 2021. As Leon indicated, we are encouraged by a number of positive factors impacting our markets. We expect earnings in the first quarter of 2021 to be significantly higher than our reported results for the fourth quarter of 2020. The expected performance of the steel mills segment in the first quarter of 2021 is the primary driver for this increase as our sheet, plate, bar and structural mills are all forecasting increased profitability. Our downstream steel product segments performance in the first quarter is expected to decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, due to typical seasonal patterns, and some margin compression due to a lag between rising steel input costs and increased selling prices. The raw material segments performance in the first quarter is expected to be significantly improved due to higher raw materials selling prices. Thank you for your interest in our company. Leon?
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Jim. And we'd be now happy to take any of your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Seth Rosenfeld with Exane BNP.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our questions today. If I can kick off with a question specifically on your raw material segments, obviously very strong performance this last quarter. I'm wondering if you can touch on a little bit your own expectations for scrap prices as we look ahead to 2021? That would have been a very strong last couple of months. What are your expectations going into the February settlement and longer term, given the growth and domestic EAF capacity, where you see domestic scrap prices settling out? And as a follow up, please, you touched on earlier some of the work within your DRI business in Louisiana which easily paying off? Can you give us a little bit of color and the level of profitability of Louisiana and your broader DRI business? And how should we think about that progressing going forward? Is there more upside? Or do we already have a pretty strong level at Q4? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. I'll just start with the back half of your question regarding the DRI and while we don't specifically call out the individual divisions, profitability. What I would tell you is the results that I shared with you in my opening remarks regarding Louisiana's performance and reliability, their uptime. Again, their incredible safety records and the things that they've continue to be able to improve and their reliability is going to yield stronger financial performance. What I'd like to do now is maybe invite Craig Feldman. Craig to share just a little bit of backdrop around scrap. What we're seeing some of the metallic spread as well as how we think about prime scrap as we move forward. So Craig, why don't you jump in, and then I'll maybe close at the end.
Craig Feldman:
Surely. Thank you. And Seth, thanks for the question. Yes, the question about longer term view on scrap, our crystal ball probably isn't significantly better than yours. Let me just share a few thoughts with you though. We certainly do anticipate a near term correction in the month of February, which I guess, is not all that surprising, given the nearly $200 increase that we've seen in the last 90 days or so. In fact, we've already seen some international scrap prices, notably turkey fall here, just really in the recent days, so we certainly see some moderate corrections from the January levels, especially on obsolete grades, which are highly elastic. And workflows have really been pretty good recently. Prime scrap grades are also likely to moderate a bit. But we don't believe will fall as much as the obsolete grades. February pricing would likely be down $30 to $50 a ton, depending on both the grade and the region. But we'd certainly characterize that as a -- I would say, a fairly normal correction, given the size of the recent run up in prices. And just a couple of other things. And Leon alluded to this in his opening remarks. But there's some other factors at work here too. The overall commodity price environment is pretty darn solid. And I don't think Leon mentioned this, but a relatively weak dollar really helped put a floor under that and really sustain the general commodity environment. The other thing I would point to, there are some seasonal factors. The month of February is typically a pretty weak month for scrap pricing overall. And meanwhile, March typically sees higher prices. So -- and we track this pretty closely with some heat maps, as you might imagine. So, historically, scrap prices in the calendar month of February, are either flat or down around 70% of the time, and then we're going back to the last 20 years or so. And March is the exact opposite of that, with prices rising or flat around 70% of the time. So, we've certainly could see some exceptions to those trends. But we really believe that, this year we'll follow that more typical seasonal pattern, if you will. So bottom line, our near term view on scrap pricing has some downward pressure, and is likely to stabilize after that. And if I may, one final comment on this. Just an observation with regard to scrap and steel pricing. And this may not be fully apparent or intuitive to most folks. But scrap prices, follow steel pricing, and not the other way around. Again, steel demand and steel pricing lead scrap demand and scrap price. And as Jim and Leon alluded to in their opening remarks, our view is pretty darn optimistic right now. So hopefully that gives you some color.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Great. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Seth.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Moving on, we'll go to David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just have really this one. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the spending plans beyond, they're $2 billion in 2021, given the timing of the remaining capital spend on Kentucky plate. I know, it's early, but can you just give us a bit of a sense as to what your thoughts are with regards to 2022 on the capital fund side?
Jim Frias:
Yes. This is Jim, I'll take a shot at that. I had some things in my opening comments regarding capital spending. And I'm trying to find that to make sure I repeated in exactly the same fashion. When we think about 2021 spending, roughly $900 million, that will be on the plate mill, roughly $250 million of it is going to be on Gallatin. And roughly another $100 billion could be galvanizing line in Arkansas. And we have about $1.9 billion over almost three projects going forward. So you can then extrapolate on that. What's left beyond 2021 and those projects at 1.9 minus to 900 and 250 [Indiscernible]. And that tells you what's going to carry over roughly into 2022. Beyond that, we're always working on possible capital projects across our portfolio. And it's way premature for us talking about what new major capital projects could be at first. But there's always ideas that are being worked on across the company.
David Gagliano:
Okay. Can you remind us again, is maintenance CapEx again is what do you thing?
Jim Frias:
There's no exact number, but we think it's been in the range of $400 million to $500 million. And it's never pure maintenance. As we said in our comments, a significant portion of this year's CapEx dropped to 80% can be categorized as creating some incremental value by reducing costs to broadening our value add product mix.
David Gagliano:
Okay. Well, thank you.
Operator:
And moving on, we'll go to Timna Tanners with Bank of America Securities.
Timna Tanners:
Hey, good afternoon, everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Timna. How are you?
Timna Tanners:
Good. Thanks. I wanted to ask a little bit more to understand the flat-rolled segments, volume and pricing and not to dwell on the past, but just looking at your average realized selling price in the fourth quarter rose like 80 bucks a ton. And the spot increase that we calculated at least was about three times that. I'm just trying to figure out how to do the right calculation in terms of the average realized selling price for you guys on flat-rolled, especially as we see this really sharp increase into the first quarter, trying to think about how to calculate that. And then along those same lines, what -- if you can remind us, what is the capability of the flat-rolled segment? Because when I looked at your volume shy of $2.3 million, that was less than the first quarter. And given how high prices were, I would have expected volumes to be maxed out. So can you just run through what the capability is? And how to think about prices? That'd be great.
Leon Topalian:
Sure. I'll start off. And MaryEmily, if you got some comments regarding kind of how we look forward in terms of the contract versus spot market. But look, at the end of the day to now I'll begin kind of little broader. And so as we think about the supply demand picture, the demand side, really again, all product groups are incredibly strong. We're at or near historic levels of backlogs in almost every product group that we have, including our downstream groups as well, order activity and entry rates remain very robust and continue to be strong. And I think a further strengthening sign of that or supportive that, as we talk to our customers, they're experiencing very saying similar things with their customers in credibly strong backlogs, order entry rates, again at the customer level. So as we look forward and I think, Jim framed as well as in his opening remarks, as we look at our sheet groups , but really all product groups that in particular, if we look at Q1, we see a significant improvement as we move forward. MaryEmily, do you want to share just a little bit about how we're looking at 2021. And now that we've completed the contract here.
MaryEmily Slate:
Absolutely. Thank you for the question, Timna. In fourth quarter we actually were still working on contracts for 2020. And as we've talked before, there is a lag in contract pricing. It's usually done on a monthly or quarterly basis. And we're really well positioned. You saw that increase in fourth quarter, but we're really well positioned going into 2021 with a healthy contract verses spot mix. And I think one area to know is that almost 20% of our sheet capacity is dedicated to internal downstream customers, including vulcraft building systems, and Nucor tubular. And each of these businesses are growing, doing very well projecting very good years. And our backlog right now is at close to his historic high, and it's about 50% better than this time last year. And so as I stated, that 20% is for internal downstream customers, and then we also have about 50% to 55% of our capacity locked up with external customer contracts. The pricing follows the market on a monthly or quarterly basis. Does that answer your question?
Timna Tanners:
I was on mute. So I guess, but I mean, in the first quarter, you also had strong internal sales from what I could tell, in fact, if anything your tubular products were higher in the first quarter than the second quarter. So I just trying to figure that out. And I understand that you have contract business, and I don't expect you to detail it, and tell your customers on the line all that. But if you only achieved a third of the spot price increase in the last quarter, then that would have suggest that you have contract tons that are absorbing more than half of your quarter-a-quarter move just back in the envelope. So I'm just wondering, do we expect like the similar contract percentages of fixed versus variable or lagged variable into the future? Is anything changed in your contract structure? And is it possible to regain the volumes you did in the first quarter or the fourth quarter a better run rate?
Leon Topalian:
Timna, real quick, first off, I think it's important to remember, these contracts are not fixed price contracts. There are things that slowly been. And so, again, that exact write-down as you described on the back of the envelope we're not bring that on this call. But at the end of the day there's a lag effect on the way up and as well on the way down. And so, our expectation, as we move forward, yes, there is obviously, more opportunity, because the price increases that we've passed and certainly the movements that you've seen in the indices like CRU, we think are going to move forward and stay strong. In terms of the volume our steel mills are operating at a incredibly high utilization rates at capacity. Until that, we see continuing and again, I think their production levels will stay very high.
Jim Frias:
Yes. Timna, some details on capacity utilization. We marked our capacity at 2,942,000 tons for the fourth quarter, and we actually produced 2,902,000 tons. So we completed 98.65% utilization rates. Now, the reason the shipments are so different compared to the first quarter, we may have had some extra inventory at the end of 2019, that helps us boost our shipments. We do have more downstream processing now with more galvanizing lines. So the WIP inventory in our system is probably a little higher. When we think about the WIP that's sitting at Galvan that would have just gone straight to have been shipped in the past. So there's other factors that come into play in terms of timing of the shipment versus production. But we would expect to have a strong shipping of the first quarter as well as a strong production month.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thank you. I have room for another one. I just wanted to get your thoughts on the -- like higher level philosophical view on the scrap market. So I know, we talked about the near term dynamic, which makes a lot of sense. But if you listen to steel dynamics call, they sounded pretty relaxed about scrap availability, even with all the new capacity consuming more scrap over the next couple years. And if you listen to Cliffs [ph], they'll tell you that you know, there's going to be a run on scraps. So kind of wanted to hear where Nucor stands in terms of your perspective. And clearly, you have the DRI capability that will enable you to be more vertically integrated in the iron units. But do you think that it's going to be an issue? Do you think that it makes sense to expand your position just would be great to hear your thoughts?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Maybe I'll kick us off. And Jim or Craig jump in as far as you get some other points. As we look out for the long term, as the mix continues to shift from integrated mills to EAFs and getting about 70% and we are still making capacity today in the United States, the EAF sector is the main on prime scrap is going to stay very tight. That's going to increase. And as we've pointed out on previous calls, because we need more prime, the automakers are going to make more units, because the steel mills needs that scrap. So the high metallic, the quality of metallics side of things and controlling our own downstream input to that. For us, it's really very strategic. And so, I don't think we're at the point where we're going to increase that. But the things that we're doing every day to continue to maximize that investments in Louisiana and continuing some of those investments in the ore yard to increase the efficiency and increase the yield and throughputs there will be areas of that. But again, as we move forward, I do see is more EAF based mills come online, and the demand as we move up the value chain even for ourselves in automotive is going to put continued pressure on the prime market. Craig, anything you'd like to add to that?
Craig Feldman:
Yes. Actually I do. And you touched on some of it. But, Timna, you're right. There's a lot of dialogue around this topic. And it's something that we've been thinking about for, frankly for years. And we do agree with the assertion that high quality metallics is as Leon just said, will become tighter going forward. Even obsolete grades, we do envision that getting tighter with a conversion from integrated to EAF. And maybe what I'd like to talk about more is what we've been doing and preparing for in that regard and how -- what we've been doing with our overall raw material strategy, if I could. And I guess the key to that strategy really is around our flexibility and optionality. And it's really around three key components that give us access to and influence over our total raw material needs. And first of all, and we talked about this a lot with regard to the DRI plants. But our capability, there is roughly 4 million tons of high quality material. And those plants, the two DRI plants really can reach all of our DRI consuming mills on the river or the East Coast in a very economical or freight logical way. And as Leon alluded to, the Louisiana team really has made tremendous progress to improve the production and the reliability. And meanwhile, and sometimes this gets overlooked as the new iron team in Trinidad, just keeps chugging along. And they've got a long history of low cost production, and really world class quality and reliability in the way that produced the DRI. And the second leg of this is really the David Joseph company or DJJ recycling operations with 4 million to 5 million tones a year of ferrous processing capacity. And they're just really well positioned to supply our own mills. Most of these DJJ locations in there's about 65 sites in total, are focused on producing scrap again, within the freight logical range of our own mills. And we continue to obviously opportunistically add capacity to the to the DJJ processing platform, as we did in the last 18 months or so with a handful of tuck-in acquisitions, including a couple of shredders. And finally, the third leg of the overall strategy is, again, the DJJ brokerage and trading team really gives excellent coverage of both domestic and international markets from a -- on a third party supply basis, which we think the big advantage. And I know, the DJJ brokerage team, prides itself on knowing its supply base extremely well, and has access to scrap substitutes not only in the U.S. but globally. And for example, the team did a really nice job here recently with the tightness in supply, which I do believe, Timna, to back to your question is symptomatic of what we're going to see in the future. But they've been able to capitalize on both some, I would say, long standing relationships with key supply partners, but also went to some areas of the world that we haven't been to in a long time. And they've done a really good job with that, to secure all the material we need, despite those supply constraints. So to sum it up, we certainly envision that the metallics market could and probably will tighten up. But the flexibility and the options that we have from our own DRI scrap processing assets of around 8 million or 9 million tons a year in total, along with the third party relationships. That gives us the access and influence just on the material that we have, our own assets dedicated to give us about one third of our total metallics demand covered. So, that 8 million to 9 million tons really represents about a third. So, yes, feel very confident, very comfortable on our ability to economically and efficiently secure metallics needs going forward. Will it be -- will there be the normal market gyrations of course, but I feel like our strategies are well established and we're in a good spot to navigate it. Well, hopefully it gives you a little extra color.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. I know, for sure. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Moving on, we'll go to Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley.
Carlos de Alba :
Thank you very much. Good afternoon. So two questions, if I may. Just first one, how do you see the stability in your downstream businesses throughout the year? Do you expect the bottom in the first quarter, you highlighted, obviously a sequential decline there. But you can see the bottom in the coming months and then improvements as we move into the second quarter? And then the other question is regarding working capital. Again, any comments that you can provide us there in terms of the evolution of working capitals throughout the year? That will be useful. Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks for the question, Carlos. And let me begin with the first one. Chad, even I might ask you to just chime in as well, if I don't cover all this. But at the end of the day, 2020 was -- as I mentioned in my opening remarks, certainly very challenging year. And at the same time, Carlos Nucor and our downstream businesses, we had three product groups that set records for profitability. And so, we ended up in a very, very strong position. And again, as we move forward, we'll get order entry rates and backlogs, we're at where we are at historic highs. And so while we expect to see some compression there, the recent price increases on metal margins are actually going to continue to grow. And most businesses, again, certainly the downstream, side will face a little bit of compression. But again, it's coming off again, in most of our downstream near record profitability standpoint. So it again, we do see it staying very strong as we move forward. To your point around working capital, that's something that we as a team, I'm really proud of our executive leadership team. At the onset of this pandemic in February last year we met. And we put some things in place with our leadership across all of the mills and operation to be incredibly disciplined in terms of very, very deliberate steps to manage our working inventory and scrap with in finished goods. And that discipline and that -- well, that discipline is going to continue, and it has continued. And so, we're not long as we think about the product, which we're not long with scrap, we're not long in width, and we're not long in the steel mills providing to our downstream product group. So we feel very good about the true cycle profitability of all our businesses. Chad, any comments you'd like to add on the product segment?
Chad Utermark:
Yes, thanks, Leon, and Carlos, thanks for that question. Yes. I want to echo what was said by Leon and Jim about the forward look that we see a non-res construction and for most of our downstream businesses. And we are very excited as we enter 2021. And I know there are some sources out there that are indicating non-res may not be as strong as perhaps we say it is or even looking into the future. But we derive our business outlook from numerous sources, but we do put a heavy emphasis on our customer input and our internal order entry data points. And we're excited as many of our downstream businesses have very strong backlogs and as in some cases, we have a record backlogs, all time record backlogs as we head into 2021. And also we monitor our recent quoting activity. And I can tell you in a lot of our businesses over the last four, five, six, seven weeks, we've seen activity rise. I want to repeat something Jim Frias has said in his opening comments, and while we respect and do monitor the industry trade group data, we offer that some of the rising non risk construction arenas may not be fully reflected in that architectural data. So our strong relationships with key customers, our breadth of product that we offer to the market. I guess, I would just summarize by saying, we're excited as we head into 2021. There will be some compression in some of our downstream businesses with rising steel costs, but those prices are being passed on in the marketplace are being accepted and we look forward to the coming months. Thanks Leon.
Jim Frias:
Carlos, this is Jim Frias. I just wanted two ideas. One, on the site on commercial discipline. Leon touched on how the team got together and was very thoughtful about managing working capital and resolve the crisis. We also were very thoughtful about the volatility downward in pricing that we were seeing last summer, and not getting caught up in that and taking too much business out of books at below market pricing. And so that discipline is positioned as well as we go into 2021. Do not have a lot of low priced backlog work through. And so yes, with the extreme movement in steel price and we've seen in the last 90 days, there is some minor compression in downstream business, but it's can be minor. So that's the first point. And then back to your question on working capital. We think volumes of working capital to think about on a tons basis will be similar. Scrap prices will be roughly flat. We think inventory values will be relatively flat. But receivables values will go up, because steel mill pricing on average selling price will be higher in Q1 they weren't Q4. So will you estimate what you think average prices are going up to take that time, the amount of times we ship. And that should be the working capital for one month, because we basically collect receivables in about 30 days. And that's pretty much it. So thank you for the question.
Carlos de Alba :
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Tyler Kenyon with Cowen & Company.
Tyler Kenyon :
Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Just first question here on the wind down of Duferdofin JV. Was there a operating headwinds from that JV in 2020? And was that flowing through the steel mill segment? Just curious as to how large that may has been?
Leon Topalian:
So, when you say an operating wind down, I mean, were we're incurring operating losses at the joint venture.
Tyler Kenyon :
Correct? And was that flowing g through the steel mill segment?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. It was incurring operating losses that were not very material, but they were generating losses, and it was flowing through the steel mill segment.
Tyler Kenyon :
Okay. And then just maybe your outlook just for startup costs as we move into the New Year, and maybe in comparison to 2020, which I believe are over 100 million?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. We did 28 million in the fourth quarter in both 2019 and 2020, roughly flat, just over 100. We're going to start off with the first quarter preoperative startup being about $42 million. And it's probably going to be on average higher than the last year, it might be in the range of 120. We don't really give a one year outlook. But I would think that that 40 million pace its probably going to be the right range. We're going to have a few areas winding down for both Gallatin and Brandenburg will be ramping up. So we'll get core of the updates as we go. But right now $42 million in Q1. And there's another part of your question I wanted to speak to that. I lost track of it. Does that probably I didn't answer.
Tyler Kenyon :
[ph]No. That was -- that's helpful. And I just want to ask one more. I'm sorry, I just wanted to ask one more on the CapEx. So Jim, you said roughly 2 billion for 2021. If I sum all of spend this year, just on the major projects, the plate mill, Gallatin expansion and Galvan and Arkansas, I get about 1.25 billion. And then assuming $400 million or $500 million of maintenance related spend. The difference is a bucket somewhere around 300 million, 350 million. Just curious as to what kind of projects these are? Sounds like it may be additional growth. And maybe how we should be thinking about that bucket moving into 2022?
Jim Frias:
One of the projects was -- at our NYS plant, we had a roughing mill that had been in service since the infancy of NYS II which makes the bigger sections. And it had really been reaching its end of useful life, we need to replace it. But when we replaced it, we didn't just replace it with. I didn't have stand to put something in that was more robust, could [Indiscernible].
Unidentified Company Representative:
That actually, I think you're doing great, might invite out there. Why don't you just quickly share and share with Tyler the tremendous work that the NYS team has done and bring that project online and really expanding the capability of what ranges they can run? Again, that investment wasn't just maintenance replacements. So I wanted to make a few comments
Jim Frias:
Yes. I'm happy to do it. And thanks Alex. I want to make sure we address your question because that was a 2020 project. Were you asking about 2021 or 2020?
Leon Topalian:
He was asking about both. He wanted to know what was in the bucket for 2020. And then what's going to be in 2021. So I'll talk about 2021, if you could sort of give them what it was for 2020 and maybe what the projects capabilities are?
Jim Frias:
Yep. So that was about $145 million, Alex at our Arkansas B mill and that was just a modernization of one of the rolling mills and it's not -- it's an example of one of the many capital projects we do that don't always get a lot of press, the new stuff, the new mills, for good reason we get a lot of press, but we continually upgrade and add to the capabilities of these mills on a regular basis. So that gave us improvements in quality, certainly, and safety and flexibility and agility, the ability to move between sections more seamlessly. And so I think it's a great example that our mills, and that mills been around for 30 years, it's not a 30 year old mill by any stretch, it's continually upgraded. It's state-of-the-art, and we maintain those facilities to be competitive in the future. So we're excited about that. And I think it will ensure that we maintain our leadership position and compete effectively for a number of more years.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. And I would just add, Tyler. There are projects of the similar nature. Next year, we are doing some investing in our process gas business, adding process gas plants at Gallatin and Brandenburg. Those are I think in that $40 million, $50 million range each. And then there's another project that is being worked on that and our team has asked us to keep silence because they're still negotiating some things. But it's in the mid 100 million range, 150 million range kind of a project. And we'll talk more about that in future once some things are finalized in terms of negotiations.
Tyler Kenyon :
Thanks very much.
Operator:
And next, we'll hear from Alex Hacking with Citi.
Alex Hacking:
Yes, good afternoon, and thanks for the call. I have a couple of questions. The first one is just on the cadence of the ramp up, like Gallatin, obviously, with flat-rolled markets, so there's a lot of interest in exactly how much tonnage Gallatin can contribute in the second half of the year. So any color there would appreciate? And then secondly, just following up on Timna's question around metallics. If we go back 12, 18 months ago, there's quite a bit of chat in the marketplace about some of the North American integrated mills might be interested in selling pig iron. Haven't really heard much about that recently. And obviously, some of the structure there has changed on the integrated side. But from where you sit, is that something that seems like it could be possible at some point? And with that help, ease up some of the potential tightness in prime scrap? Thanks.
Jim Frias:
Okay. Alex, thanks for the questions. I'll start with the back half your question or the second question around metallics. First, maybe ask Dave Sumoski to address your opening question. As we -- look, the short answer, we look at the domestic supply of pig iron, absolutely. But the caveat is, is at a price competitive points in the marketplace. And so, if those integrators can come back on and produce pig iron at a competitive price, we will absolutely be lining up and purchasing our pig iron domestically. But again, that certainly is a challenge. We'll see what happens. And to your point several of our competitors have talked about restarts and doing just that. And, we'll see how that unfolds as we move forward, But that -- I'm certainly not going to speak to their strategies and executing. But again, it's got to be at a price competitive standpoint and today I'm not sure if they can reach that cost or not. So we know other cover out there, Dave you want to comment on the first part of this question.
Dave Sumoski :
Yes, sure. Alex, our Gallatin know what the expansion will be and we'll produce about 3 million tons a year, which is about 1.4 million ton add. And the startup is in the fourth quarter. So it's hard to imagine that there'd be any material tonnage coming out of Gallatin this year, but the startup at the beginning of next year, well, startup at the end of this year goes smoothly, we'll be able to run that rate sometime in the first quarter.
Alex Hacking:
Perfect. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Hi, Leon, and Jim and team. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had two. I just wanted to flesh out one final thing on the CapEx. I know you talked about this a bit on the call, but just looking at 2020 the gardens [ph] 1.7 billion has been about 1.5 billion. And then 2021, the 2 billion I think is unchanged. Just want to check is that catch up from 2020? Is that now not in play, because that was sort of unallocated project that you're talking about or should we t expect that to then be added back in 2022?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. That's a great question, Chris. It's -- when we estimate CapEx we keep those line of interest from business units. And I think that sometimes they get a bit conservative and trying to make sure that they give us the maximum how they're going to spend in any year. And so, that was the reason for the shortfall. And there will be carryover what they didn't spend this year into next year. But I would still say that the same thing goes to for their expectations for 2021. So that's probably going to be carryover at the end of 2021 as well. So I still think that overall spending should be in the range of $2 billion for 2021, even with that carryover effect.
Chris Terry:
Okay. So you are going to say what your 22 number expectation is?
Jim Frias:
No, I cannot. I cannot know.
Chris Terry:
Okay. And just another quick one, maybe for you, Jim. Just the tax rate, the cash tax, and the P&L tax for 2021 and maybe further out, if you can, maybe into 2022?
Jim Frias:
Yes. Let's say a normalized tax rate is going to be in the neighborhood of 24%. And for book purposes. But for cash purposes, obviously, we received significant tax benefits this year. We paid very little tax in the first half of the year. And we're going to be seeking refund in the neighborhood of $140 million, when we -- we don't have a final number. We have to be in that range. When we do our tax return in August as a result of the great work our tax team did this year. And I want to share with you folks. Deb Douglas is our International Tax Manager, and she's the one who figured out the opportunity to take advantage of the worker's stock deduction that allowed us to capture so much value. After we made the decision to exit. And then of course, the overall tax team, including all the managers, John Taylor, Amy Cathell, and the others just did a great job of doing all the year-end work that's necessary for us to come up with those figures. But we're going to have cash benefits beyond this year, because of the accelerated depreciation are big projects. And we think that over a three-year period its $535 million. If you give me a minute to look, I think next year's cash benefit, its going to be in the neighborhood of 240. And the year after that when we finalize Gallatin, because that's going to be the or excuse me, Brandenburg. That's going to be the biggest impactor. It's to be north of $330 million cash benefit. But our book rate should be in a normalized range of that 24%, which includes the federal and state rate, assuming there's no tax increase during that time period.
Chris Terry:
Thanks, Jim.
Operator:
And that does conclude our question and answer session. I'd like to turn it back to Mr. Leon Topalian for any closing comments.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. I'd like to conclude by once again, thanking my Nucor team for your focus and commitment to living our culture as we work through a very challenging year. As you look back and reflect on 2020, allow you to know that you've displayed the very best of the Nucor culture by working safely, being innovative, as we adjusted our operations, relying on teamwork and taking care of our customers and serving each and every one of them. Both a pandemic and the protests for racial justice caused us to rethink how we define safety. We started to think more broadly about how safety means to one another, and how inclusive that is as a team. I'm proud of the steps we took in 2020, to commit ourselves to becoming an even more inclusive and diverse company, where every team member feels this strong sense of belonging and ownership. I've said many times during this pandemic, they will not just emerge from this crisis, will emerge from this crisis a stronger company, not just financially, but also culturally. And I believe we have seen the results that are already showing to be true. Thank you for your interest in our company.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We'd like to thank everyone for their participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although, Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to the forward-looking statements may be found in the Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. 2020 continues to present all of us with challenges, from the pandemic, social unrest and the economic struggles many people are facing, to the wildfires and hurricanes that have impacted our country these last few months. But we have also seen how these challenges have brought people together to care for the safety, health and wellbeing of one another. I want to thank my Nucor teammates for their continued efforts to take care of our Nucor family and the communities where we live and work. Joining me today on the call are the members of the Nucor executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products as well as Nucor's digital initiatives; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Bar, Rebar Fabrication and Construction Services; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. With regard to our safety performance, our team has had another great quarter. We are on pace to have the safest year in our history, and I want to thank every one of our team members for their hard work and commitment. At the start of the year, I set the challenge for us to become the safest steel company in the world. And my deepest thanks go out to every member of our team for your continued focus on safety and our most important value. You have remained focused despite the tumultuous year. 15 Nucor divisions have gone more than one year without a recordable injury. I want to thank each of you for your continued effort, focus and commitment to ensuring that we take care of the most important value and responsibility we have, the health and safety of our entire team and family. Turning to our financial performance in the third quarter. Business conditions in most of the markets we serve improved as the quarter progressed, resulting in a rebound in demand for bars, beam and sheet products. Increased demand was reflected in our capacity utilization rate, which for our steel mills, improved 83% from 68% in the second quarter. Better market conditions, combined with continued strong execution by our team, enabled us to outperform the expectations we had at the beginning of the quarter. Looking at the business conditions in different end-use markets during the quarter, non-res construction demand continue to be resilient and in fact is growing for us in areas like our joist and deck businesses, where orders, quotes and backlogs are all up year-over-year. More broadly, while third-party data tracking construction starts and backlogs have been volatile, indicators that look out further by tracking project inquiries have turned positive in recent weeks. Much of the activity continues to be in data centers and distribution centers, where we've had incredibly strong capability and relationships with owners, developers, fabricators and designers. We expect that these two areas will remain strong for the foreseeable future. We recently launched a construction solutions team to better service our customers throughout the construction segment and bring together the breadth of Nucor's products for a more coordinated approach to the marketplace. In the automotive sector, we experienced a strong rebounding third quarter related to automotive demand. Further, we are expecting strong automotive production rates in Q4 that could match or exceed the year ago period. OEMs are focusing on rebuilding inventories to meet the continued strong demand. For reference, current days on-hand inventory levels are at nearly 10-year lows. We have heard some analysts suggest that consumers are allocating money they would normally spend on travel to upgrade their cars and vehicles. We are pleased with our team's performance in this market and are expecting continued profitable share growth as we move forward. Moving on to oil and gas end-use markets. There's been no appreciable change here, with both rig counts and underlying commodity prices still being low. However, renewable power and energy transmission are showing strong growth despite effects from the pandemic. Through late September, steelmaking segment orders related to the renewable power sector have already exceeded 2019 by 15%. We are excited about the opportunities for our company in the renewables market, and we participate in that market through a broad variety of products, including plate, tubular, beams, fabricated rebar, sheet, piling and fasteners. The breadth of our product offering and the investments we are making in highly differentiated capabilities present meaningful growth opportunities for us. Several of our capital investment projects that started operating in recent months are producing excellent results. The ramp-up of our rebar micromill in Missouri continues to outperform our expectations. We generated positive EBITDA through the quarter at Sedalia. Congratulations to the entire Nucor Sedalia team for their excellent performance. Our Kankakee, Illinois bar mill will complete commissioning of the new MBQ rolling mill in Q4. We expect to achieve positive cash flow from this project in Q1 of next year. While the commissioning schedule was slightly extended due to COVID-related disruptions, customer acceptance of the new products has been extremely strong. This new capability at Kankakee will allow us to provide our customers with a full range of MBQ, light shapes and structural angles and channels out of one location in the heart of the Midwestern market. Our new state-of-the-art cold mill in Hickman, Arkansas continues to ramp up production and to diversify its product mix. Since commissioning, the cold mill has added 24 new customers, which has helped the team rapidly grow production and shipments. In fact, the third quarter cold-rolled shipments surpassed our volumes for the first quarter, which was, of course, pre-COVID. Product development continues to be a focus, including the first trial runs of our third-generation advanced high-strength steels. Construction of the Gen three flexible galvanizing line at Nucor Arkansas continued to progress throughout the quarter. Equipment installation began in the third quarter, and the team anticipates a start-up in the second half of 2021. Our other major investment projects remain on track. Start-up of our rebar micromill in Florida is expected to happen late this year. And the Gallatin expansion start-up is anticipated for the second half of next year, with a plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky to follow in late 2022. And before I leave the topic, I also want to give a shout-out to our team in Marion, Ohio. We don't talk about it as much, perhaps it's because it's a modernization and not an expansion. But the team at Nucor Steel Marion completed a project to fully modernize our Marion bar mill in the middle of last year. They did so safely, on time and within budget. These investments lowered our costs and our environmental footprint there, and Marion's profitability is up almost 200% over last year. So again, congrats to the entire team there. While we are always looking for high-return growth projects like these, we are not overlooking opportunities to improve our performance by proactively managing our existing asset base. Over the last couple of years, we've had to make some difficult decisions to restructure parts of our metal buildings group to better align our production capabilities with the needs of the market. While every team member who has been impacted has had the opportunity to remain with the Nucor family, these decisions are not made lightly or without considerable deliberation. I want to thank our teammates for their dedication and service to Nucor as we have navigated these difficult changes. We recognize our shared responsibility to effectively steward shareholder capital and deliver world-class returns on those investments today and tomorrow. It is worth noting that Nucor buildings group has generated strong operating profits during both 2019 and 2020, even as our teammates there adjusted to these changes in their business as well as the pandemic. With the election less than two weeks away, we believe that no matter who sits in the White House or holds a majority in Congress next year, our leaders in Washington must understand the need to move forward with a significant infrastructure spending bill that includes strong-buy American provisions. We believe that a long-term commitment to modernizing our nation's crumbling infrastructure is long overdue. And we will continue to remind our elected officials of this when the new Congress convenes in 2021. Real progress on this front would not only boost the economy and create hundreds of thousands of much-needed jobs, in the short term; it would also be an investment benefiting future generations of Americans. We are also encouraging the current Congress to pass reauthorization of the Water Resources Development Act before they adjourned. Florida legislation funds, critical waterway, construction projects that are an important market for us and improve the waterway transportation system we use to ship our products. Before turning it over to Jim, I just want to say how much I appreciate everyone on the Nucor team working safely and for your focus on serving our customers during these most challenging times. The Nucor team's passion and dedication are getting noticed by existing as well as new customers. Let's keep it up and never lose sight of the importance of valuing every individual in the contribution they make to our collective success. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Nucor's third quarter earnings of $0.63 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.50 to $0.55 per diluted share. Results for the month of September exceeded our forecast at almost every business across our diversified portfolio. Third quarter results included $6.6 million of losses on assets related to our Duferdofin-Nucor joint venture in Italy and a $16.4 million restructuring charge related to the further realignment of our metal buildings business that Leon mentioned. We expect this will be the final restructuring charge associated with that initiative. The combined negative impact of these actions on our third quarter earnings was approximately $0.06 per diluted share. These charges were not included in our guidance estimates. Excluding these special charges as well as pre-operating and start-up costs, earnings would have been $0.75 per diluted share. Cash provided by operating activities for the nine months of 2020 was $2.2 billion. This exceeded the sum of our year-to-date capital spending of approximately $1.2 billion and cash returned to our shareholders via dividends and stock repurchases totaling $408 million. Nucor's through-the-cycle earnings and cash flow benefit from our highly variable low-cost structure. Working capital reductions generally provided countercyclical benefit to Nucor in downturns like the current one, enhancing our cash flow and liquidity. Year-to-date, cash flow generated from contraction in inventory, receivables and payables was $643 million. As I previously noted, we made significant progress in reducing inventory volumes during the second quarter. I'm pleased to say that during the third quarter, we were able to respond to increased order flow and production without increasing our inventory levels. Our investment in scrap, WIP and finished goods inventories is basically flat or slightly down from the prior quarter levels on a tons basis. On the financing front, during the quarter, we took advantage of the opportunity to work with Meade County, Kentucky to issue $163 million of tax-exempt industrial revenue bonds to provide partial funding for our new plate mill under construction in Brandenburg, Kentucky. The bonds are designated green bonds as proceeds will be used for pollution prevention and control facilities. The bonds will mature in July 2060. This is Nucor's longest tenor bond ever issued at 40 years and our first green bond issuance. Concurrent with this capital raise, Standard & Poor's and Moody's both reaffirmed Nucor's credit ratings of A- and Baa1, respectively, while also maintaining their stable outlooks. We continue to hold the highest credit ratings of any steel producer headquartered in North America. At the close of the third quarter, our cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $3.3 billion. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which does not mature until April of 2023. Total long-term debt, including the current portion, was approximately $5.5 billion. Our debt-to-total-capital ratio net of cash and short-term investments was approximately 13.5% at the quarter end. Our next significant debt maturity is not until September of 2022, $600 million of unsecured notes, with a coupon rate of 4.125%. The flexibility provided by Nucor's low-cost operating model and financial strength continues to be a critical underpinning to our company's ability to grow long-term earnings power and reward our shareholders with attractive returns on capital. Our team has been working on nine significant organic growth projects, representing a total investment of about $4 billion. We expect to complete commissioning on six of these projects by the end of this year. The remaining projects are the expansion and modernization of our Kentucky sheet mill, the addition of our Generation three flexible galvanizing line at our Arkansas sheet mill and our Kentucky plate mill. At the close of the third quarter of 2020, remaining capital expenditures for these growth initiatives are estimated to be approximately $2.1 billion. We expect about $300 million of that investment to occur in the current quarter, with the balance occurring in 2021 and 2022. We expect that our total capital spending for full year 2020 will be in the area of $1.7 billion. Turning to the outlook. We expect Nucor's fourth quarter earnings to be improved over our third quarter results. Most notably, our sheet and plate mills will benefit from recent price increases. 2020 has been a challenging year in many respects, but it has served to heighten our already strong confidence in Nucor's future. Our teammates continue to capitalize on Nucor's advanced cost position, flexible production capability and financial strength to build long-term value for our customers and shareholders. Thank you for your interest in our company. We are now happy to take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Seth Rosenfeld with Exane Paribas.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Seth Rosenfeld. Thank you for taking our questions today. If I can start out, with a question on capital allocation. And then I have a follow-up, please, on plate. But in terms of capital allocation, the restart of both Gallatin and Brandenburg last quarter obviously locks a great deal of CapEx for the next few years. Can you please just touch on how we should think about what comes next after these projects? Should we be expecting CapEx to gradually roll off? Or behind the scenes, is there a series of additional projects under development right now that we should expect to be approved as the natural CapEx budget starts to decline going forward? And tied to that, can you please confirm if there's been any indication for the 2021 CapEx budget at this stage? I'll start there, please.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Certainly, Seth. Thank you for the question. I'll start, and then Jim maybe you can jump into some specifics. Seth, as you think about the question and I'll frame it in the context, as we think about nearly $4 billion worth of capital projects that are either online or coming online, I couldn't be more excited about the EBITDA and the returns and the long-term shareholder value that those investments are going to create. But the longest of those is the Brandenburg, Kentucky plate mill, which again, in our mind is going to truly change the framework in getting Nucor market leadership position in plate in the heart of the largest plate-consuming region in the United States. But I couldn't be more excited as well as we think about the long-term. One of the effects of COVID as well is it's really narrowed the window of view and scope for people to think month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter. But these investments are truly for the long-term, the next five, 10, 15, 20 years of returns for our company, so I couldn't be more excited as we think about what is next, not high and every Executive Vice President on this team are focused on those things that are next. With regard to 2021, I'll let Jim kind of jump in here and talk about what we're seeing in trends and just give you a generalization of what we're seeing and what we anticipate as we move forward. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Yes. Seth, your question is challenging. And as Leon said, we are excited because we're not -- we have the financial strength to execute our plans in spite of COVID, in spite of all the other things that may come up. And so we're not thinking about how we get through 2022. We're actually thinking right now about what we're going to do in '23 and '24. So we're not ready to talk about those things yet. But rest assured, we're thinking about those things. That's what's top of mind for us. We run our business with a long-term perspective. So CapEx this year is in low 7-plus range. And next year, we haven't gone to the Board yet for formal approval, but it's going to be in the neighborhood of $2 billion. We'll come out with a formal number in January when we do our earnings call for year-end. And we've been generating a lot of free cash flow. We looked at it, and from 2017 through nine months ended in September of 2020, we generated $4.4 billion of free cash flow. So yes, will there be more investments? You're right, there will be. What are they, we're not ready to talk about, but we're working on them.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Great. Thank you. And if I can ask a slightly shorter-term question on the outlook for the plate market, please. Obviously, plate has been a very weak area across the U.S. sector over recent months, particularly compared to sheet in recent weeks. We've seen recently a number of price hikes from yourself and your peers in the plate market. Can you walk us through how they are being accepted by customers? And also, any confidence you have with regards to the ability of plate to return to historical metal spreads or return to historical relationship versus hot-rolled coil prices? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Certainly. Yes. Thanks, Seth. So I'm going to let Al Behr, our EVP of Plate and Structural Products, kick it off and maybe add something at the end. Al?
Al Behr:
Okay. Thanks, Seth. In terms of the outlook for plate, we're optimistic. Our outlook for fourth quarter has improved over Q3. Our backlog ending Q3 was much stronger than it was Q2. The price increases that we had through the quarter had stuck and have been supported by the market. We've collected 100% of those announced price increases. As a matter of fact, we went out earlier this week with another price increase on plate. So we see several bits of improvements within the market in key segments and are optimistic about our Q4 outlook.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Seth.
Operator:
We'll move on to Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Hi. Thank you very much. Just two questions from me. Number one, can you comment on your scrap market or scrap price expectations here as we get into year-end? It kind of look like prices could be trading sideways into November. Is that your expectation as well? And maybe how do you think about scrap over the next couple of months after that? That would be the first question, please.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Yes. Andreas, I'll ask Craig Feldman, who's in charge of our Raw Materials, to kick this off, Craig?
Craig Feldman:
Sure. Yes. Thanks, yes, for the question. You're right, we do see it, I would say, fairly stable in the near-term. November, I would say, it's generally pretty flat. Beyond that, we could see some of the normal seasonality into December and into the first of next year. But generally speaking, we see it pretty stable, so I think your assessment was spot on.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Okay. And then just thinking about 2021, how do you see your product offering and maybe 2022 as well? Are you bringing new products to the market that -- to markets that, in a manner of speaking, close to you before, I mean, that was kind of reserved by the integrated producers? And the reason I ask, obviously, is we just continue to see all this R&D among the EAFs to bring more and better and better products to the market and taking that market share from the EAFs -- sorry, from the integrated producers. So are we still seeing you do that over 2021, 2022? And maybe, also, your thinking about the integrated producers kind of restarting next year, is that something you're factoring in or not? Those are my -- that's my other question. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Okay, Andreas. I'll begin and then maybe ask MaryEmily Slate, who's our EVP of Plate and Tubular -- or Sheet and Tubular, to maybe add some detail behind my comments. But to answer your question regarding the differentiated value proposition, as you think about Nucor's investments, it's really not about capacity, it's about capability. And as we think about the investments we're making in our Generation 3 galvanizing line at Hickman, Arkansas, it will be the first EAF producer to be able to produce a 2,000 megapascal material for the automotive market. And so, as we think about where we're going to be and kind of skating to where the puck is going to be, our investment strategy is absolutely about bringing new and innovative products, as well as expanding our capabilities. For example, our Nucor-Yamato team in Blytheville, Arkansas has just completed a modernization in installing a tandem mill in their NYS II line. The NYS II is the jumbo line, the largest section being the heaviest foot weights. And while we're the largest and the market leader in beams in North America, we haven't rested and sat on our laurels. We've invested significant dollars to continue to expand and open up. And by doing this tandem mill project at NYS, it's going to allow us to continue to move up in the foot weights and offering the largest, heaviest jumbo section beams in all of North America. Specifically, into the sheet world, I'll ask MaryEmily to comment, because I couldn't be more excited about our advances as we move into automotive and the opportunities that we see there. MaryEmily?
MaryEmily Slate:
Absolutely. Thank you, Andreas. We are excited about this. We are so extremely pleased about how we are able to expand our product offerings with both the cold mill at Hickman, the specialty cold mill, that can produce every grade that we currently produce, plus takes us into those ultra high-strength steel and advanced high-strength steel, not only steels that are made today, but as Leon mentioned, steels that will be designed for the future that will really support the CAFE standards to help lightweight our vehicles. The galvanizing line at Hickman, as it comes up later next year, with the Gen 3 offerings, it will be the only EAF steel that's able to do Gen 3 at this time. And so that really gives us the flexibility in this broadening of our product offerings.
Leon Topalian:
Just two other quick comments, Andreas. One is around Gallatin. And as we think about the expansion in Gallatin, much of their markets that they're targeting with their hot band today is currently served by the integrated producers. And so, we see a huge opportunity with the expansion in Gallatin to move some of our products into ag and to automotive that we've not been in before and historically, again, have been supplied through the integrators. The other point I’d add is, when you think about the largest investment in Nucor's history is going to be Brandenburg, Kentucky, the plate mill will be able to produce 3/8 of an inch all the way up to 14 inches thick, out to 168 inches wide. That is not an offering today that we can produce, and there's only really one other producer that can go that heavy and wide. So our capability to serve our customers in those end-use markets is something that Nucor is supremely focused on.
MaryEmily Slate:
Leon, can I add one more thing? We just received the GM Supplier of the Year award. And we're the only EAF producer that has received that award, and this is the second year in a row. And if you think about our opportunities here, automotive is the largest sheet user in the United States. They use about 33% of the sheet market. And we have grown our footprint there, but we have a tremendous amount of opportunity to grow. I think we're about 7% now, and we've got a lot of opportunity. And these extensions are going to allow us to do that.
Jim Frias:
Andreas, this is Jim. You asked the question about integrated restarts. And they're going to do what they think is best for the business, and we respect that. But we think we've got an advantaged business model. The proof is our financial performance and our financial strength. And so, we're not really concerned about that way, one way or the other. We believe we have great opportunities to grow our business in places where integrators are competing with us today.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
That’s very clear. I appreciate the in-depth answer. Thank you very much.
Jim Frias:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Timna Tanners from Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. Hey. Good afternoon, guys.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Timna.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to follow up on that last question. And, I guess, given that there will be fewer alternatives for exposed automotive applications for -- assuming the proposed merger goes through, just wondering, is it too late for Nucor to kind of expand into even further exposed automotive alternatives? Is that something you would consider? And then along those lines, I know we're hearing a lot of the business in Europe. But I'm wondering, in the U.S., if you have a lot of customers that are expressing a preference for buying greener steel.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Let me begin with the first part of your question. And no, it's not too late. And in fact, the investments in Hickman, the things that Nucor Decatur, Nucor Berkeley have done are already supplying all the 14 major OEMs in this country Tier 1 supply. So we can produce today exposed automotive. As we move forward, and we've certainly heard this from many of our automotive customers, they want Nucor to have a more significant footprint and presence in automotive. As we stated, not on the last call, but I think the one before, our focus is to balance our portfolio and offering. Today, we're about 1.5 million, 1.6 million tons a year that go into the automotive sector. We think around that 2.5 million to 3 million tons is about the right balance for us. And so we have a lot of room to grow, and we'll see how that moves and unfolds as we move forward. The other investment with our partners in JFE in Mexico and building that galvanizing line is to purely run automotive steels. And so again, Nucor is well positioned to expand that. And I forgot your second question. What was your second part of your question, Timna?
Timna Tanners:
Just, if you're seeing a similar appetite for greener steel, like what we've heard in Europe?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Look, at the end of the day, without a doubt, as I've taken over as CEO, I've spent a lot of time on the road and have laid with COVID. But prior to COVID in a lot of Zoom calls with different investors, the ESG question and responsibility is something that Nucor takes incredibly seriously. We are seeing it in our customer base. And one of the things that you're going to see Nucor unfold in the coming months is a very proactive approach in telling our story. We have an amazing story to tell. As you all know, Nucor is the largest recycler of any product in North America. We recycle over 20 million tons of scrap. And 100% of what Nucor produces is recyclable. And so as you – again, as we move forward, we have an amazing story to tell. We're going to be much more deliberate and proactive in telling that story and sharing it. Again, when you think about the carbon footprint of an EAF producer, with 70% of Nucor's inputted steel being recycled, we have a unique value proposition in that regard. And again, we're going to do some very proactive things to tell that story.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Cool. I wanted to, if I could, also just ask one question – one other question on the guidance. So the – it was interesting. We've seen things a little bit more sideways in terms of pricing and – for bar, structural and plate and some volumes in plate be a little lower. So the guidance implies that the sheet business profitability will offset some of that seasonality and some of that more sideways move. Is that the way we're taking it? Or is there less seasonality this year? Just wondering if you could give us a little more color on what's embedded in that guidance.
Jim Frias:
Hey, Timna, this is Jim. Let me take it. If Leon wants to add something, he can. The way our contract customer's pricing works, there's a lag and then we get the benefit of pricing. And so we didn't get very much benefit in Q3 from pricing momentum that began in that quarter. We'll get most of it in the fourth quarter. So – and then again, Al touched on this earlier, Al Behr, about the price moves we've recently made in plate. They've been accepted by the market. So those things together are going to drive better price realization in those two businesses. And it's separate from market demand. Market demand, we expect to be somewhat stable other than some seasonality. But Al touch on something that's important. We finished Q3 with a stronger backlog than we finished Q2 in plate. The same thing is true in sheet, our backlogs were much higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the end of Q2.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Timna.
Operator:
And we have a question from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Excellent. Good afternoon.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon. How are you?
Phil Gibbs:
I am doing well. Thank you. How are you? Maybe if we could talk a little bit about DRI. You mentioned it in your outlook comments in your release that, that business is getting better. I would think, certainly, the increasing price of pig iron is helping that. But maybe just give us a maybe just give us a high-level view on how some of your operational changes have perhaps brought some greater output outcomes?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Absolutely. So I'll let Craig Feldman, EVP of our Raw Materials, kick off because we've got some good news regarding the performance what our teams in both Trinidad and Louisiana have done. But Craig, why don't you provide a little more detail?
Craig Feldman:
Yeah. Absolutely, Phil. Really pleased with the performance. As you remember, second half of last year, we had a pretty significant outage at Louisiana and made some significant improvements in that operation. It couldn't have gone better, to be honest with you. The improvements we've made really allowed us to set some new records in reliability at Louisiana. We went 62 days straddled in the second and third quarters of this year in terms of uninterrupted production. So I'm very, very pleased there. With regard to Trinidad, similarly, the team has done a remarkable job just improving reliability and yield. In fact, I just heard the other day that some of the DRI performance metrics were released and we are at the top of the list in terms of the quality of output from Trinidad as well. So I'm very, very pleased with the progress to date. The one remaining project that we have will be finished in Q1 of next year and that's the material handling operation, our material handling yard, that will be completed. We should get some operational efficiencies through the beginning of next year on that as well. No doubt and you referenced it in terms of the pressure or the price increases that will certainly give us a little bit of a tailwind as we finish out this year and into next year. Certainly, high iron ore prices are still there. But certainly, the projections for a normalization of iron ore prices, everything we read and look at for iron ore prices, could give us a little bit of a tailwind as well. So overall, very, very positive, I'm very, very pleased. And I want to give a shout out to both of the plants for their performance, focus on reliability and very optimistic about where we're at.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Craig.
Phil Gibbs:
And Leon, are you all seeing any signs of stabilization or any green shoots in the oil and gas side? Clearly, it's been weak and continues to be. But any push for expedites or early intentions on CapEx plans from your customers next year? Just any insights there would be helpful?
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Phil, I think it's -- the optimism in that end market would be a little off right now. I think it's going to be an incredibly pressured Q4 in that area. I don't see it bouncing back much. I think there will be some positive momentum as we get into 2021. But again, that will remain to be seen. But Nucor stands ready to supply that market. It's not a huge piece of Nucor's business. About 8% to 9% overall in our mix is into that sector. But I think as we see one of the key variables will be whether or not we get a vaccine, what happens and when does that rollout look like, either end of the year and into next year, in terms of travel and transportation, the airline industries and cruise lines, and again, what is the mobility in that sector look like to bring some resurgence into the area, so we watch it like you do. To date, I don't -- I think it will be pretty flat.
Phil Gibbs:
And if I could sneak in one more. Do you think the Gallatin expansion on the primary sheet-making front is still a mid-2021 start-up? Is that still your intention as of right now?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, it is. It is. And I think Jim touched on this in the last call. As we entered Q2, we put a pause on a couple of our bigger projects. And when I say pause, it didn't stop the work that was already in place or the engineering. Like in Brandenburg, it was already happening. So in the case of Brandenburg, for example, that few months, it didn't delay the start-up at all. While Gallatin has certainly had some pressure, we still feel very confident that, that team has done a really good job of keeping that schedule. And mid-next year is still the target.
Phil Gibbs:
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we have a question from Alex Hacking from Citi.
Alex Hacking:
Yes, thanks. I just wanted to follow up quickly on the Arkansas AHSS capacity that's coming online. I have, in my notes, that that's going to be 500,000 tons, so I wanted to check that. And then secondly, I just wanted to ask how quickly do you think the market will -- your automotive customers will absorb that product? Are they knocking down your door and they're going to want it all right away? Or that's going to be kind of a multiyear process to build that up? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Alex. I'll let MaryEmily start this out.
MaryEmily Slate :
Okay. Thank you, Alex. It is 500,000 tons a year. And we've been very pleased. We are running 24/7 at this time. We broke production records in September and look to do that again in October, running very close to nameplate at this point. Through fourth quarter, the backlog is strong, and we've been very successful in getting contracts for next year. So we look to be about 50% to 60% contract for next year. And by the balance -- by the end of the year, the galv line will come up, and that -- part of that production will feed that galv line.
Alex Hacking:
Okay. Thanks. And just a follow-up, if I may. I mean is that being used on the exposed side?
MaryEmily Slate:
Not at this point, no. But the line in Hickman, Arkansas is more focused on internal parts with strength requirements, so that you can take weight out of the steel, but add strength. So there, right now, we don't have any projection to do any exposed material off of that line.
Alex Hacking:
Thank you.
MaryEmily Slate:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we have a follow-up question from Seth Rosenfeld from Exane BNP.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Thank you for taking the follow-up. If I may, I had two questions on just cash expectations from end of the year. First, can you comment on expected cash tax deferral benefit for the remainder of this year? I think the prior guidance was for $350 million in the full year. Is there any update on that for the cash tax deferral? And then secondly, please, on working capital. Can you just talk through any expectations for seasonal working capital release in Q4? Obviously, demand conditions have been sort of volatile this year. What should we expect for the remainder of 2020?
Jim Frias:
Great questions. First, on the cash benefits to taxes related to our significant capital spending that we're in the midst of, we still believe it's just over $700 million over 3 years between 2020, 2021 and 2022. This year's number is going to be in the $170-ish million range for that portion because of the timing of when some projects are going to finish. And some of it's going to fall into next year and then year after that. And then what was the last part of your question? I had lost track. I'm sorry, Seth.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Working capital…
Jim Frias:
Oh, yes, working capital, you're going to have higher prices in sheet and plate. That's going to use some working capital receivables. And because of the risk of supply, we'll probably bump up our scrap inventories in pig iron, in particular, which has a long lead time to obtain in the fourth quarter. So you could see some growth in working capital on the balance sheet. It won't be material, maybe between 100,000 or 200,000 tons of pig iron. And I'm hoping it's a big number on receivables because it will still be 30 days, but I want to give as much pricing as we can in the fourth quarter.
Seth Rosenfeld:
That's clear. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And we'll take a question from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks. MaryEmily, did I hear you right insomuch that you said the specialty cold mill is running essentially full out right now?
MaryEmily Slate:
Yes, yes. They aren't running completely full, about 90%.
Phil Gibbs:
And that's less than….
Jim Frias:
Phil, as a reminder, that mill has the capability to make regular cold mill as well as advanced high-strength steels. And so the mix is more towards the more commercial-grade cold rolls today.
MaryEmily Slate:
Absolutely.
Jim Frias:
And so MaryEmily maybe could touch on that further because I don't know the details the way you do, I'm sorry.
MaryEmily Slate:
Yes. Absolutely. Phil. That's a great question because right now, we've been really pleased with the quality and the performance. But what we are running are the lower and the normal cold-rolled CQ grades. We've also done all of our trials on the advanced high-strength steels, and we've been very successful. So we're completely pleased with what we're seeing off that line. We've even been able to run some Gen 3 trials that the steel will be ready when that galv line comes up and is ready to run. So as we go forward, that mix will change and move into higher end-type cold-rolled products.
Phil Gibbs:
Has that project itself moved out of start-up? Are you making cash on that asset right now?
MaryEmily Slate:
Yes. Yes, we are and expect for the year to be cash-positive.
Phil Gibbs:
And then lastly, Jim, if I could, on the start-up costs overall, I think you -- pre-operating and startup, you said something around $22 million in the release. What does that include, those pre-operating and start-up costs? And then when would the projects within that bucket start to break free?
Jim Frias:
Well, there's several projects in there. But the biggest single item is at Nucor Steel, Florida. It's in the $9 million range. And then there was $4 million in Gallatin and $3 million at Brandenburg. And then the others will be spread across other smaller projects. In the fourth quarter, we think it's going to be in the neighborhood of $24 million to $25 million, and Florida will peak at just over $10.5 million. We expect Gallatin to be in the just under $4 million range and Brandenburg to be $4.5 million and again, dollars in smaller levels at other projects. So as we go into next year, it's too early to tell. But Florida should start falling off, but obviously, we could have some ramp-up at Gallatin and Brandenburg. So if I had to make a guess, and it's purely a guess, next year is not going to be materially different. Maybe just a little bit higher depending on how quickly you ramp up start-up costs at both Brandenburg and Gallatin.
Phil Gibbs:
Understood. Thanks for all the color.
Operator:
And we will now take our final question from Tyler Kenyon of Cowen.
Tyler Kenyon:
Hi. Good afternoon. Hope everyone is doing well. Thanks for squeezing in here. Jim, I just had a question for you just on the CapEx. In the $1.7 billion budget just for 2020 here, how much of the $4 billion of major capital projects, how much of that spend will have been spent by year-end and maybe how we should think about that as a component of your earlier comments for 2021 being roughly $2 billion in total CapEx?
Jim Frias:
I don't have an exact number at my fingertips, but I would ballpark it that we probably spent $2 billion of the $4 billion through the end of this year, somewhere in that range.
Tyler Kenyon:
Okay. And then just on the 2021 commentary, around 2021?
Jim Frias:
In 2021, again, we don't have a final budget. The total number is $2 billion. We'll be prepared to give you a better breakdown of that 2021 number between big projects. I know a substantial amount of it is carry-forward. But it's also carry-forward on projects that don't -- aren't within that $4 billion total. We've got a lot of midsize projects going on all the time in a business of our scale. Our base CapEx is in that $400 million to $500 million a year, to be safe, to just support the business.
Tyler Kenyon:
Thanks very much.
Jim Frias:
Okay, you’re welcome.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back to Leon Topalian for any closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you. Before concluding our call today, I want to express our appreciation to our shareholders. We value your investment in our company, and we take the obligation seriously that comes with it. I would also like to thank our customers. We're excited about the capabilities we're building to better serve you today, and most importantly, for tomorrow. Thank you for the trust and confidence you place in the Nucor team each day to supply your needs. Before I conclude, I want to impress upon everyone listening today just how confident I am that we're going to come out of this challenging year a safer, stronger, more diverse and inclusive and more profitable Nucor. Thank you for the interest in our company.
Operator:
And once again, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation’s Second Quarter of 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect believe anticipate and variations of such words or similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although, Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties related to the forward-looking statements may be found in the Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Q, which are available on the SEC's Nucor Web site. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter earnings call. As we continue to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, we want to again thank the doctors, nurses and AMTs and other first responders for their efforts in this fight. I would also like to thank our team who have continued to serve our customs throughout this pandemic. Joining me today on the call are the members of Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias. our Chief Financial Officer; Al Behr, responsible for Plate and Structural Products; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products, as well as Nucor's Digital initiatives; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Bar, Rebar Fabrication, and Construction and Engineering Services; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. Before going over our financial performance for the quarter, I want to congratulate our team on our safety performance. We began the year with a challenge to become the world's safest steel company and I couldn't be prouder of our efforts on the most important value we have as a company. While the current pandemic has challenged all of us, it has also allowed our team to expand how we care for the safety, health and wellbeing of one another. I want to take a moment to recognize Nucor Steel Arkansas and Nucor Castrip Arkansas, for going more than one year without a recordable injury, an impressive accomplishment for one of our larger more complex steel mills. I'd also like to congratulate Nucor Steel Connecticut for going three years without a recordable injury, congratulations to our teammates at these divisions. We look forward to replicating these results across more of our operations, so that this becomes the new normal at every location. Safety also means creating a more diverse and inclusive company. With the events gripping our nation, we are committed to taking the necessary steps to ensure that every team member in our company feels safe, not just in how we produce our steel but safe in every sense of the word, safe in how we treat one another regardless of the color of our skin, our religious beliefs, age or sexual orientation, or political views. Our culture is the foundation that has made Nucor the preeminent North American steel producer for over 50 years, and we are committed to ensuring that our culture remains the hallmark of our success for the next 50. Turning to second quarter financial performance. earnings were better than we anticipated due to our diversified product mix and strong position in non-res construction markets. We continue to see the benefits of our recent initiatives to improve the performance of our businesses that serve these markets, specifically in rebar fabrication and metal buildings. I want to thank those teammates for embracing the changes we've made in these business units. During the quarter, we had very strong cash flow and increased our financial flexibility with the issuance of $1 billion of new notes. Jim Frias will discuss this more in detail in a few minutes. As we discussed in our last call, all of our domestic steel and steel product operations are considered to be an essential business and has stayed operating since the pandemic began. Our ability to continue operating, along with proactive engagement with our customers, has enabled us to grow our businesses with existing customers, as well as develop new customer relationships. We're also getting inquiries in conducting trials with customers, who are planning to reshore their manufacturing operations. In the uncertain environment created by COVID-19 pandemic, our team’s reliability and resilience is appreciated by our customers. I want to thank our teammates for their dedication and commitment to living our culture over these last few months, which is why we were able to exceed our customer's expectations. During the quarter, we were pleased to receive two awards from General Motors. For the second consecutive year, Nucor has earned GM supplier of the year award. We remain the only EAF based steel maker to receive this prestigious award. We value the partnership we have built with GM and look forward to growing that partnership in the future. Congratulations to all of our teammates who are successfully executing our strategy to grow our share in the automotive market. In addition, Nucor Steel Berkeley was recognized by GM for excellent quality and responsiveness, and received the Supplier Quality Excellence Award. My congratulations and thanks to the entire Berkeley team for this outstanding achievement. We're very proud of your success. Now, I'd like to provide some updates on growth projects we recently commissioned. Progress continues at our Hickman Specialty Cold Rolling mill. The mill is already producing 980 mega pascal strength steel with just five passes through the mill versus 25 or more passes required to produce comparable material at a conventional reversing cold mill. Hickman is continuing to trial advanced high strength steels with both existing and potential customers. The new galvanizing line at our Gallatin sheet mill is fully operational, and the team continues to focus on optimizing yield and productivity. The mill received IATF quality certification in May and is working on qualifications relevant to other markets, including ring bins and cooling towers. Gallatin also received a new supply award from a major automotive OEM, and they continue to see strong performance in the solar market. Our new Sedalia Rebar Micro mill Missouri has already achieved positive EBITDA from June. We forecast that the mill will be bottom line profitable by September, and will be capable of full production capacity early in the fourth quarter. The spooler of commissioning has been completed and spooled product is being well received in the market. We are growing our number of active customers each month. Our Kankakee, Illinois division has continue to commission equipment and starting to develop a wide range of products on our new MBQ mill there. We will start to ship orders to customers this quarter. While market conditions are difficult to forecast, we're optimistic that we will achieve positive cash flow from this project by the end of the year. We also continue to make progress on several projects that are currently under construction, including Frostproof, Florida rebar micro mill is on track start up in the fourth quarter. The Hickman Generation 3 Flex galvanizing line, the team progressed with building construction and installing equipment foundations during the quarter. We were targeting startup of the line there for the second half of next year. Finally, with respect to the Gallatin modernization and expansion and the Brandenburg plate mill, we are greenlighting each of these projects to move ahead at full speed. Our decision is guided by the incredible market opportunities these investments afford us, our strong operating cash flow and the adjustments we have been able to make across the company in response to the pandemic. We did receive our air permit for the Brandenburg plate mill, and we have remained on track with our timeline there by continuing to push ahead on the engineering work for the project. Despite the significant challenges posed by COVID-19 pandemic, the 26,000 men and women of the Nucor team worked hard to maintain profitability during this challenging quarter. I'm especially proud of how our team has come together and continues to live our culture. With that, I'd like to now turn it over to Jim Frias.
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Our second quarter results demonstrate once again the strength and resilience of Nucor's business model, with the Nucor team delivering better than expected earnings and robust cash from operations in a very challenging and uncertain environment. Second quarter earnings of $0.36 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.10 to $0.15 per diluted share. Results for the month of June exceeded our forecast at several businesses, including our rebar and merchant bar mills, rebar fabrication, joist and deck, tubular products and at our sheet mills. Cash provided by operating activities exceeded $1.1 billion for the quarter, with working capital contraction on the inventory receivables and payables line items totaling $650 million. Working capital reductions generally provide a counter cyclical benefit to Nucor in downturns like the current one, enhancing our cash flow and liquidity. Scrap inventory has been an area of particular focus as the pandemic has unfolded. Today, we are much leaner in this area than we were at the pandemic’s outset. And I think we will be able to use this experience to stay lean when growth resumes and prices rebound, reducing the asset base that we require to generate strong profitability. Our cash provided by operating activities for the first half was $1.35 billion, our second best first half performance in terms of operating cash flow. It exceeded our year-to-date capital expenditures and cash dividends to shareholders by more than $300 million. During the second quarter, we took advantage of attractive market conditions and Nucor’s strong credit profile to issue low coupon debt. $500 million of five years senior notes with a coupon rate of 2%, and $500 million of 10 year senior notes with a coupon rate of 2.7%. Concurrent with our capital raise, Standard and Poor's and Moody's both reaffirmed their Nucor credit ratings of A minus and BAA1 respectively, while also maintaining their stable outlooks. We continue to hold the highest credit ratings of any steel producer headquartered in North America. At the close of the second quarter, our cash and short term investments totaled more than $3 billion, more than double our cash and short term investment position of about $1.4 billion at the end of the first quarter. Nucor's liquidity also includes our undrawn $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which does not mature until April of 2023. Our next significant debt maturity is not until September of 2020, $600 million of unsecured notes with the coupon rate of 4.125%. The flexibility provided by Nucor's low cost operating model and financial strength has been and will continue to be a critical underpinning to our company's ability to grow long term earnings power and reward our shareholders with attractive returns on capital. On our April call, we reported that we had revised our full year 2020 capital expenditures budget down to less than $1.5 billion. While that measure was taken to maximize our flexibility in light of a dramatically different economic outlook than we anticipated at the beginning of the year, we have not slowed any capital spending related to safety, operational reliability or environmental compliance. With respect to our most significant organic growth projects, the Brandenburg Plate mill and the expansion and modernization of our Gallatin heet mill. As Leon has already indicated, we have decided to reaccelerate investment in each of them. We are taking the step after a thorough review of these projects and their compelling economic returns, as well as our cash flow performance. This will mean the CapEx in the second half will be approximately $250 million higher than it would have been otherwise. We now project our total capital spending for 2020 will be in the area of $1.7 billion. Before I turn the call back over to Leon, let me provide a few comments about the outlook. While the current environment is highly uncertain with sheet plate and raw material markets remaining challenging. At this point, we expect Nucor's third quarter earnings to be similar to our second quarter results. Our long products and downstream businesses continue to benefit from solid non-residential construction market conditions. And our teammates continue to capitalize on Nucor's advantaged cost position, flexible production capability and financial strength. Thank you for your interest in our company. Leon?
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jim. Before we take your questions, I just want to comment on a phrase I hear regularly, getting back to normal. I've overheard this phrase over the last few months and I recognize that our team and folks in our communities are saying it to simply indicate they wish the pandemic was behind us. I wish that too for sure. But in the sense, I also reject this as an aspiration. We see at Nucor our goal, our aim and our focus, isn't simply to return to pre-COVID operating levels. When I think about getting back to normal in terms of safety, I don't ever want to go back to normal. I want to replicate the performance that I’ve shared earlier on Nucor Connecticut and Nucor Castrip and Nucor Hickman, Arkansas, I want every operating division, the entire team, to go without a single injury for an entire year, because then from there we can replicate that over and over. Our focus to become the world's safest steel company is uncompromising. And also from a financial standpoint, I don't want to return to pre-COVID operating or performance levels. I want us to continue to focus on the things that we've been able to do over the last five months that will be a part of our business as we move forward. We appreciate the valuable shareholder capital that you entrust us with every day, and our goals and our aim and focus is to return in maximizing the profitability back to each of our shareholders and our team. And finally, we want to continue to strengthen the relationships that we've built with our customers a over long periods of time. However, during this pandemic, it has created unique ways for us to connect and develop those further and fuller so that we continue to be the supplier of choice in meeting their needs. We appreciate the trust you put in our company in place with every order that you entrust us with. While it has been a challenging first half of the year, I truly believe Nucor will come out of this crisis a stronger, more profitable and more inclusive company. With that, we'd now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you [Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question today from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Chris Terry:
I had a couple, just wondering if you could comment firstly on your expectation for the utilization rate in mills in 3Q?
Leon Topalian:
Chris, I appreciate that and certainly when I look at that forecast each of the groups, but I would tell you in general, we would anticipate utilization rates to be improving as we go into Q3 and beyond.
Chris Terry:
And then the CapEx plans, you've gone to 1.7 for 2020. Can you talk through the speed cadence into '21 and maybe just the target for '21, I think originally it was to $2 billion and $2 billion for 2020 and 2021. Just wondered if you could comment on the '21 picture? Thanks.
Jim Frias:
Yes, it's too soon for us to predict our 2021 capital spending, but we're going to use the same discipline in making capital investments next year, because we don't expect the pandemic and pardon me for saying this, Leon, from being completely behind us. Back to your comment. We're always going to invest in safety and specifically in reliability no matter what the economic environment. We will look forward with our significant strategic investments, which include Brandenburg and plate mill and the Gallatin sheet mill modernization and expansion. So, we will selectively invest in projects with returns -- the returns are so compelling that they shouldn't be deferred. But I would expect it to not reach $2 billion but we’ll update on that probably in January, because in February we'll go to the Board of Directors for approval for that 2021 budget and then we'll share that when we get to that earnings call in January of '21.
Chris Terry:
And the last one from me, just if you could give an update on the DRI facilities.
Leon Topalian:
Maybe, I'll kick it off and then I ask Craig Feldman over raw material to provide some more detail. But as we look, certainly there has been an awful lot of pressure based on where iron ore pricing are. At the same time, I want to congratulate our NSLA team who is working incredibly hard through this pandemic, as well as the new iron team in Trinidad who are now operating. They had a period of time where they were taken down by the Trinidadian Government and now we’re back up and running. But in particular with NSLA, as you know, the reliability has not been what we have come to expect. In the third quarter of last year, we took a 60 day downturn to improve the reliability that started back up in November of last year. And over the last nine months, I would tell you NSLA, our DRI plan in Louisiana has run at the best reliability levels we've ever seen. And so, we're very proud of those accomplishments. There's still more work to do. And again, the pressure on our results and our performance there, because of iron ore pricing, will probably be with us for some period of time. But Craig, do you want to provide detail?
Craig Feldman:
You hit a lot of the high points, so just a couple of things. I'd echo your appreciation and gratitude for the teams in both Louisiana and in Trinidad they've done a remarkable job. And right after the second half shutdown of last year, the Louisiana plant is running incredibly well. In fact, this week continuing today, they continue to set continuous operational records of 57 days today. So, they've run incredibly reliable since the improvements were made last fall. We feel really good about that, proud of that team, very appreciative. The other point, and I guess the point about 57 days is, it may not be completely intuitive to everybody but just 24x4 continuous operation. So that 57 days of uninterrupted production is quite a milestone. The other thing I'd point out is relative to the DRI, just how it fits in the overall raw materials sourcing strategy. It really gives us unique flexibility in the industry to really flex and shift between various metallics. Now obviously, big iron, as well as DRI, as well as scrap. So reallly well-positioned and I would say that unique flexibility is really unparalleled in the industry.
Operator:
Thank you. We will now hear from Seth Rosenfeld with Exane BNP. Please go ahead.
Seth Rosenfeld:
If I may, I have one follow-up with regards to the growth projects from one of the outlook for the plate market. With regards to the Gallatin and Brandenburg, can you just confirm the expected timeline for development and ramp up these projects, recognizing the recent delay? Obviously, only one quarter in nature. But should we expect these to be going roughly in line with prior targets or something a bit slower? And then secondly, with regards to the U.S. plate market outlook. Obviously, this has been one of the areas that weighed on performance of late. Wondering if you can comment on whether or not there's any conditions emerging for some potential improvements into the second half of the year? Just looking at second quarter performance as well, it looks like your volumes fell much more sharply than your peer SSAB offering that your ASPs are much more stable than SSABs. Can you just comment on the competitive dynamic between yourself and your largest competitor there? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Seth, I'll try to make sure we answer all of them. And if I don't, please remind me, because there's a few questions in there. But let me begin with your first question, which is the expected anticipated time frames for start ups at both Gallatin, as well as the Brandenburg plate mills. I would tell you at Brandenburg, despite slowing down the CapEx spend, the team has done a great job. And what we didn't feel around, Seth, at this point, was the engineering design work that was being done over the last few months. Our anticipation is that we would have no delay in the start up of Brandenburg, and we expect that would be late fourth quarter of 2022 is still on track. With respect to Gallatin, while it may be a couple of months delay, the team is going to work very hard to bring that again and sometime in mid next year, I think is the target. And so, it may be a couple months delay on that but we're still trying to work through that and then figure out if we can make up that time still. But again, worst case scenario, it's a couple of months. I'll probably turn it over to Al out here to add some more. We'll provide more information regarding the overall plate market, and I'm not going to speak very directly to our competitors. As we think about these investments and think about the plate market in general, we share about a third of the market. What we’ve recognized and realized overtime in about nine of the 13 markets that we serve, Nucor is the market leader. We understand what that means and the opportunities that affords us. And so with Brandenburg coming online, it also provides the widest most diverse product mix offering of any plate mill in North America. So that, on top of being located in the largest plate consuming some region in the Midwest, it's going to afford us a freights advantage from our current mills that are supplying that market. So, we're very excited about it. And as Jim mentioned, we're going to be very deliberate in how we spend our capital, maintaining our financial flexibility moving forward. But the normal cyclicality of the plate marketer in general the steel markets is something we've grown accustomed to and have lived in for 50 years. However, this black swan even of this pandemic has certainly given us some pause but we believe we're at the trough of the market and things will begin to, to continue to improve as we enter Q3 and Q4. Al, anything you'd like to add on the plate market in general?
Al Behr:
Yes, and I'd echo Leon, just your excitement, our excitement about that project in Brandenburg and during our period of capital preservation, we remain very busy. We've got a small team on the ground in Kentucky that's navigating that project and doing an outstanding job focusing on the less capital intensive parts of the project. So that when we move back to full throttle as we are today, we can take advantage and maintain our end of 2020 start up. So we're on track, we're excited and we're headed towards that. In terms of the plate market in general, our utilization was down in Q2, as you would expect. It was largely with the market that the market data for June has not yet published, so we don't know industry statistics just yet. But our indicators say that we probably gave up a couple points of share. And in Q2, we had gained share in Q1 a little weaker in Q2, largely due to a strategy to resist some of the price erosion we saw as the pandemic unfolded. So year-to-date, we're confident we’ve picked up some share in place. When we talk about the outlook for second half, it’s very clearly cloudy as it is in a lot of our segments, but we see some recovery coming back in parts of energy, not overall but power transmission. So, some bright spots, parts of heavy equipment show perhaps some uptick. We do expect some restocking and some regular buying from service centers to occur over the second half. So, we do expect some modest recovery in those utilization rates and some upward movement. But the farther out we go, the harder it is to really predict what it looks like.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll hear next from Timna Tanners with Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to start out and just ask a little bit more about what you're seeing in the construction arena, and knowing that you mentioned that it's been pretty steady. So, I just wanted to square that with some of your other comments. So on the volume decline, would that be fully function of inventory destocking? And if that's the case then I would expect maybe a restocking, in which case, I would expect more volumes into Q3, and you're expecting kind of steady results. So just trying to square those things, and was hoping you could provide a little more color?
Leon Topalian:
I think the first part of your question was around, on construction. And so as we look at our numbers today that end market for us and the construction market has shown incredible resiliency. I really want to call out our partnership and the jobs our teams have done in Vulcraft/Verco and our Decking group, our Skyline business and piling and really the relationships still with our fabricators over a long period of time that end market has held up incredibly well. And it's not to say it's guttural and we hope things go well in Q3 and Q4, our backlog, for example, are almost 10% higher year-to-date than they were a year ago. I mean, last year for our construction businesses in the Decking and Vulcraft side was a record year. So, our backlogs, our order rates, our shipment rates continue to be very encouraging. At the same time, look, we are watching all the metrics in terms of entry rates, all the billing indexes and looking out to okay does that mean a slowdown at the end of the year Q1. But again, as several has mentioned, it's a little too early to begin to predict what the uncertainty may look like. I would just tell you in the next few quarters, we anticipate that that will remain pretty strong. So, I don't think it's a destocking issue. I think inventory levels are relatively low quite frankly. But distributors are very cautious about adding inventory right now, which is understandable. So, I don't think that's the case. And then what was the second half of your question, Timna?
Al Behr:
She was asking about where volumes went down a little bit. And if may be I could chip in here, Leon. I would say that, first of all, we had some reduction in volumes at all of our steel mills. But the biggest reductions were in our engineered bar mills and our sheet mills. And the long term story is excellent. We are gaining share in those places. Our share in '19 for sheet was greater than it was in '19 and it's greater in '20 in the first half than it was in '19. But at the same time, we are heavily weighted and we have both engineered bar and in sheet in both auto and in energy, oil and gas. And those markets took the biggest hit of all the markets we serve in second quarter. I think for sheet [variables] is like 10%, energy 10%, automotive. So 20% of our sheet market went away and similar problem level, maybe even greater and or higher as a percentage of our market for each new bar went away. But the good news is relative to that is auto is coming back. So to the extent we're expecting things to be similar next quarter, part of it is that we think that the volumes are going to pick up but margins are compressed right now. So, we're starting the quarter with lower margins than we last quarter. So net net, we think those things resulted in close to same performance. It's really a bit of a guessing game right now. Does that answer your question about why we're saying flat performance and we see upside. And then to energy, some of our bigger customers in the tube space that make products at our sheet mills serve the energy market. They think by the end of the year, they’re going to see some pickups as well. So, we're hoping that's going to happen but we're seeing it more clearly today in auto, we’ll pickup the demand both in engineered bar and in sheet.
Jim Frias:
If I can make one comment. Year-over-year, we're up 8% in rebar and then 3%. So on the construction, on construction product side we were actually up this year.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I was just talking about the sequential quarters. So we were down in all products, I think in Q2 versus Q1.
Timna Tanners:
I mean, I'm looking at structural down pretty big and bars even year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, and I think of those as construction, that's why I was asking. But I don't want to belabor it. I did want to ask…
Leon Topalian:
Most of the budgets down is in the engineered car, that's where the reduction is.
Timna Tanners:
My other follow-up was just to ask a little bit more about how we see the market shaping up in the second half, because clearly automotive is recovering but at the same time with several blast furnaces are restarting and the steel price has been slipping. And so, it's a strange combination of more supply but more demand. And you say you're taking market share and dynamics of the taking market share. And just wondering how we see this playing out in the balance of the rest of the year with the growth in supply and demand and how that plays out? And if you could also comment on the lag effect on some of your sheet pricing for CRE contract. Is that still a factor? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Sure. I'll start this us off, and then I'm going to ask MaryEmily Slate to jump in, in particular on the sheet side. And look Timna, the question you asked on the front end of that is something we're looking at every day. The supply demand ultimately is the economic driver of our business. And so as we think about third quarter or moving into the end of the year, how are things going to shape out. Well, what we think is by August, we're going to see 13 to 14 blast furnaces come online. But we also saw something through this pandemic that maybe I've not seen in my 25 years in this business, and that was a shedding of about 20 million tons of supply come out of the market very, very quickly. So where we sit today we're forecasting somewhere around 10 million tons of restarts. So 10 million tons still offline, most of that in the sheet arena, flat arena, or all of that in flat, most of it in sheet. We anticipate that the projects that Nucor has, as well as some of the other markets expansions, are going to be still low under the 10 million tons that I'm not sure ever restarts. And again, I don't want to predict that. What I would tell you is the ultimate driver is the low cost producer win. And so, Nucor’s focus and taking care of our team from a safety perspective is also matched by ensuring that we remain in low cost position so that we can continue to be the supplier of choice and/or market share. With regard to automotive though, while we're not GM, or Ford, or BMW, or Mercedes Tier 1 biggest supplier, we’re working hard every day to be their best supplier. And so, the things that that team has done have really resulted in why we've been selected to have big name the GM supplier of the year award back to back here. So even though autos - will be down this year and really probably for the next year in terms of pre-COVID levels, our share of that opportunity is going to grow. And we think by the end of the year, we will surpass shipping level of what we did in ’19. MaryEmily, would you like to make a few comments on the sheet market in particular the pricing?
MaryEmily Slate:
About 70% of what we sell in the sheet market is contract time, so we still have about 30% of our books that’s associated with spot pricing, and that 70% is divided between a lot of different metrics. So there will be some lag effect in pricing but we also feel that with oil and gas as low as it has been, which drives a lot of the hot roll price, we feel like we’re at a bottom and there's an inflection point coming. So we will see some correction in this market.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll hear next from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
The first one, I just want to ask you question about the second quarter results actually. The 13 days before the end of the quarter, the guidance was, I don’t really remember it was $0.05 to $0.10, or $0.10 to $0.15, or something like that, it came in way better. I'm curious what changed in the last 13 days? It looks like our numbers, the EBITDA came in over $1000 million higher based on the guide that was 13 days before the end of the quarter. And just trying to figure out what changed.
Leon Topalian:
We're not proud of the fact that we're not the greatest forecasters in the world. We really aren't. And our business units more than doubled their forecasts for June in terms of division contribution, which is an EBIT like number. So, most of that beat happens on the steel side. And so, I would just say that our divisions were probably a bit conservative in their expectations for June and that's why we ended up missing high by such a large margin.
David Gagliano:
And just sort of such a wide gap this quarter…
Leon Topalian:
We’re a company with 27 million tons a year capacity, and we’re making low numbers, $0.15 a share, $0.30 a share. Those are low numbers relative to our capacity. And so, it's a big miss in terms of it. If you just look at the number, when you think about it on a per ton basis, when you think about it in terms of our capacity to generate earnings it's a small list. So, I agree with you, but just that little caveat.
David Gagliano:
Just on follow-up a bit in terms of the prior questions and on the comments around supply demand. Three months ago, there was a pause obviously in Gallatin and market prices have weakened and obviously don't make decision I know that's the answer you will make decisions on 20 year investments in three month move in pricing. I totally get that. But is there anything else that changed in the last three months that gave you so much confidence to bring Gallatin back on and still shoot for mid-2021 start up when you do have all this capacity coming on, restarting all blast furnaces, you mentioned 10 million tons plus other projects coming online. What's changed in the last three months specifically that prompted the quick turnaround?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, David, I'll start and maybe Jim can jump in, because I want to make sure I articulate this point well. I would tell you it was less of a change in terms of, either there’s no change in strategy. What I would tell you was when we went into early March and shared on the call in April, our view of what the COVID pandemic was going to mean, how deep it was going to hit, how long it might be with us. We certainly recognized it as a black swan event, gave us pause and what we wanted to do at that time was ensure. We maintain the financial flexibility to do the things that we were committed to doing, like providing our dividend, making sure that we could fund our capital needs in terms of maintenance CapEx. And so really it was a pause to recognize this effect. But make no mistake, it never changed our focus and our thought process around those two projects being strategic and long-term decisions that were the right for our team and for our shareholders moving forward. Jim, anything you want to add?
Jim Frias:
When we made the decision to slow spending down, it wasn't in isolation. We wanted to maximize liquidity in the second quarter, because of this unknown of what COVID is going to do to us. And so, our strategy was to cancel non-essential projects, slow the big projects down, not stop and slow them down temporarily but continue forward with the number of projects, including the Frostproof micro mill, which is so far down path, and do those things to maximize liquidity in Q2 and we accomplish that. Separate of the of the debt issuance, we increased our cash by $600 million in the second quarter. And so, our free cash flow is extremely strong and we wanted to demonstrate that we could have strong free cash flow for the year. And so now that we have that confidence and we also have a better understanding of how we're being impacted in the economy by COVID, those things together are the underpinnings for saying let's go forward on those projects. So it was combination of our results in terms of liquidity, as well as our understanding, our better understanding of how much we’re being impacted by COVID.
David Gagliano:
But specifically on the supply demand perspective. Is your view that the Gallatin, specifically the Gallatin mill will be almost entirely going after market share?
Leon Topalian:
Of course, it will. So, long-term, our strategy is to grow our share in sheet. It's one of the places where we're a little underweight relative to the market. We’re market leader in most of the places we compete. And Gallatin is 1.5 million tons, 1.4 million tons of incremental capacity that moves up that needle a little bit. So certainly our goal is to gain share in sheet.
David Gagliano:
And then last question, I'll turn it over. I just wanted to confirm the CapEx for the two projects. Is it still expected total CapEx for Gallatin $650 million and then also at Kentucky plate mill, I think 1.4 billion of those numbers unchanged in total?
Leon Topalian:
Both the numbers at Gallatin -- the Gallatin number is not changing. And I think we reported in our last call that Jim did it was $1.7 billion Brandenburg plate mill, which is…
Jim Frias:
Yes, we noted that the increase in our call last quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. We’ll hear next from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Just to piggyback up of what Dave just asked. It doesn’t sound like there's been much spent to date on Brandenburg and then on Gallatin, maybe a little bit relative to that $700 million? Is that right?
Leon Topalian:
You want the breakdown of what we spent on those projects so far this year, is that what you are asking for?
Phil Gibbs:
Just to date, yes, I mean, not necessarily this year but just how much have you spent in terms of where we are right now?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I have the outlook but I don't have the history. I'm sorry, I don't have it at fingertips, I'm sorry. Dave, could you give us what the information is?
Dave Sumoski:
Yes, Brandenburg, we spent $150 million before the pause. We spent about $245 million throughout the rest of the year now that we picked it back up. At Gallatin, we expect $220 million before the pause and we're going to spend another $160 million.
Leon Topalian:
Did you get that, did you hear those numbers?
Phil Gibbs:
I did. Thank you. And then I know from last call your target inventory for the year, I think you said you wanted to take out a billion of inventory. Is that still something that you think is achievable?
Leon Topalian:
We said we wanted to reduce inventory significantly and we thought it could be up $2 billion. We’ve got scrap inventory down by about 850,000 ton. And so, I don't know that that itself is a billion dollars, I think it is. But we made a significant progress in scrap. In fact scrapping from I think 3 million tons-ish at the end of Q1 to somewhere around 1.3 million tons at the end of Q2, maybe little more than that, or 2.2 million…
Phil Gibbs:
The D&A numbers, look like they're coming in a bit higher than what we have forecasted, I mean this includes amortization but I have almost $200 million a quarter for Q1 and Q2. Is that something that should be repeated for the rest of the year?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I think that's going to be about right for the year. Our full year forecast is #720 for depreciation and just over 84 amortization.
Phil Gibbs:
And then on the side of the tax, the deferred tax benefits with these project time lines essentially intact, and I know that there were some benefits this year next year and then in 2022. Maybe just remind us what those are and how much maybe you received thus far?
Jim Frias:
We get it in terms of, we get it in two points. First of all, to the extent we're making money, we could offset those profits and not pay taxes. So how much we get this year probably depends on how much we make. We think the benefit this year is going to be in the neighborhood of $200 million and some of that will be NOLs that we’ll have to go through a process to get from the government. But this year’s benefit we think it as being $200 million, and the cumulative benefit over three years is expected to be in the neighborhood of $700 million.
Phil Gibbs:
Jim, how much of that $200 million have you got so far this year?
Jim Frias:
Well, look at the income statement, everything that we've got is tax expense we haven't had to pay.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Andreas Bokkenheuser with UBS.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Just a quick clarification. I think you kind of answered the question already, but there's been obviously a lot of talk about taking market share and you guys have been doing that and then you continue to do so, and we've seen you do so as well before in the past in these kind of price trough markets. We're obviously seeing some of your competitors raising sheet prices now, which of course you could do. But in doing so of course, some of the integrators could restart capacity. So, I guess the question is, is the focus on your second half strategy or maybe your 12-month strategy more on continuously taking market share kind of in line with what you've done in the past in these kind of trough markets?
Leon Topalian:
Look at the end of the day, Andreas, our focus is to serve our customers well and make sure we're providing a differentiated value proposition. And so as we think about moving forward, our pricing decisions are going to remain independent of what our competitors are doing. We will evaluate for ourselves where we believe the market's at and if it would be time to raise pricing. So as we move forward, we absolutely want to grow in market share. And as I mentioned, nine of the 13 markets we serve we are market leaders. We are not market leaders today in plate. Brandenburg will help provide that differentiated value proposition where we would be. And also in sheet today, we are somewhere in the 16%, 17% of the overall market range. We have an awful lot of opportunity to grow in that, as Jim commented too earlier. So again, as we move forward, like we do in every product group and have made pricing decisions, we will evaluate that independent of what our competitors are doing.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
And then maybe as a followup to that, when we kind of look at Q3 and there's been some talk about expectations of scrap prices and then raw material prices kind of pulling back in August. And so would you say that from a raw materials price environment point of view that the environment is supportive of margin expansion into the third quarter, all other things equal. I mean, leaving the price aside but from raw material price point of view that there should be some margin support there. Is that fair to say?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, look, very fair question and obviously, we track and follow that. And the scrap market volatility over the last several months is certainly something we watch. Craig Feldman over our raw material. Craig, why don't you comment to what you're seeing and how you look at the market over the next few months?
Craig Feldman:
Relatively stable, I guess is our overall outlook. There’s been some recent activity, particularly export activity in China and Turkey, really driving things a little more active. But it's a fairly well-balanced market from the supply demand standpoint. And certainly wouldn’t see any major moves in the near-term. I'd hate to venture, I guess, much beyond the next 60 days or so. But I think our outlook is relatively stable. It could be some modest moves in the short-term, a little bit of dislocation in certain regions with some of the coastal export activity you could see some pricing pushed a little bit but for the most part we see the outlook stable.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our last follow-up question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
The raw material side, I think there were a couple of pretty big outages in Q2 one at Louisiana because of COVID and the one in Trinidad, because of COVID. But the results on the raw material segment were a lot better than I would've thought. You now have those operations back online. So, I would've thought you would've gotten some better momentum in the third quarter relative to the second. So just curious in terms of how how we see that interplay, why it's down, why the second quarter was, I guess, so good and the activity was even probably better than the expectation that you had for yourselves?
Craig Feldman:
Yes, definitely it was better than we had expected, to the question earlier about the forecast. The real headwind has been and continues to be, as you well-know, DRIs, I'd say stubbornly high iron ore prices. So that was a bit of headwind. What really picked up from the team at David Joseph's recycling [operations] really done a nice job and really outperformed in the quarter. So that was a big pick up driving those results. And as you know, we don’t release the individual unit results but that was probably the biggest upside that we got, it was from the DJJ recycling operations in Q2. And certainly going forward, I don't know that we're going to see much change in that iron ore pressure we talked about a number of times on these calls about the margin pressure. I think that we continue to see and depending on where iron ore prices go, we expect to get some relief at the DRI operations, but your guess is as good as mine as far as where iron ore prices go down the road.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Before concluding our call today, I want to express our appreciation to our shareholders. We value your investment in our company and we take the obligation seriously that comes with it, we will treat your investments with great care. I also want to thank our customers. We're excited about the capabilities we're building to better serve you today and most importantly for tomorrow. Thank you for the trust and confidence that you placed in the Nucor team each and every day to supply your needs. We look forward to building powerful partnerships to generate powerful results. And to our Nucor team, thank you for what you're doing every day and taking care of our customers. And most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. We are committed to strengthening this core value and by doing so help to improve the safety of our Nucor family and our industry. I'm excited for Nucor’s future and for all of us working together to expand beyond and take Nucor to new heights. Thank you to everyone on the call for your interest in Nucor and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2020 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words, we expect believe anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although, Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties related -- relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in the Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. I want to begin today by taking a moment to honor the heroes surrounding us during these unprecedented times. Thank you to the doctors, nurses and healthcare workers drawing close when the natural tendency is to pull away. Thank you to the EMTs and first responders like my own daughter, who are serving on the front lines battling to save lives. Thank you to the U.S. postal workers; UPS and FedEx drivers and to the truck drivers delivering our food and medicines. I'd like to also thank the Nucor team members who have continued to work in order to support our country's essential systems and processes. And finally, I want to offer our thoughts and prayers and sympathy for those who have lost loved ones or who currently have someone fighting this terrible disease. Joining me in honoring these heroes at our call today are the members of Nucor's executive team including; Jim Frias. our Chief Financial Officer; Craig Feldman responsible for raw materials. Ladd Hall responsible for Flat-Rolled Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products, as well as Nucor's Digital initiatives; MaryEmily Slate responsible for Plate, Structural and Tubular products; Dave Sumoski responsible for Merchant Bar products; Chad Utermark responsible for Fabricated Construction Products; and Al Behr our most recently named Executive Vice President. And to our teammates listening in, your health and safety is our most important responsibility. Thank you for those of you who continue to work from home and those of you who are working to safely produce the products our customers need to continue to support essential projects across our nation. We will get through this pandemic by living our culture every day staying focused and taking care of one another. Currently over 40 states where we operate, our facilities are subject to either shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders. In every one of these jurisdictions Nucor has been deemed an essential manufacturing operation. Some of the essential projects that Nucor continues to produce field for include; the expansion of the Mayo Clinic in Arizona; the Henry Ford healthcare system in Detroit and many other hospitals across the nation in New York, California, Oregon and Minnesota. Our sheet mills recently received orders from hospital bed manufacturers. We prioritized those orders and got the material turned around in 1.5 weeks. Thank you to our team for making that happen. Military and defense applications including two aircraft carriers being built the United States Navy and several nursing homes assisted living communities and critical infrastructure projects across the United States. Over these last several weeks, the spirit of Nucor's culture has been on full display. Our teammates are not only continuing to serve our customers, but they are living up to the deeply shared sensitive responsibility to the communities in which we operate in and we live. There have been numerous stories of our team members finding ways to help their communities during this crisis by exercising the entrepreneurial spirit that brought them to Nucor. For example, Nucor teams all over the country have been pooling resources and overnighting N95 masks and other critical PPE to medical units in need. Our team members in Seattle and Nebraska are utilizing personal and company-owned 3D printers to produce as many as 100 NIH-approved face shields per day. Our Vulcraft New York team has created and donated specialty hardhats with face shields to the local hospitals. Our Nucor, LNP team in Missouri has been delivering meals to local senior centers and one of our engineers at Nucor Steel Berkeley is producing intubation boxes to protect doctors and nurses in the operating room. These are just a few of the many stories that make me incredibly proud to work with the greatest team assembled anywhere in the world. In late February, we took several proactive steps to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic, including establishing three task force teams to guide our response, a main COVID-19 task force to provide guidance to our general managers, who run each of the divisions, a pay-and-benefits task force focused on the financial well-being of our team members and a commercial task force to work with our customers making sure that we provide uninterrupted customer service and that our customers continue to recognize Nucor as a sustainable and reliable supplier of choice. Turning to our first quarter performance. 2020 got off to a good start with an operating rate of approximately 90% at our steel mills and very strong earnings from our steel products businesses. Excluding the charges we took related to our Duferdofin investment, our earnings were just under the guidance range we indicated in our March 2019 news release. Order activity and backlogs remained strong well into March, reflecting solid underlying demand in nonresidential construction and other end-use markets. The coronavirus pandemic's impact to our overall business has been varied. Automotive and oil and gas end-use markets have been the most severely impacted, while demand for our nonres construction products continues to be quite strong. Our facilities serving these construction applications continue to operate at high utilization rates. We are well positioned to weather the economic downturn and emerge from it poised to grow again once it's behind us. Nucor is a low-cost producer in each of the diverse markets in which we compete and our businesses generate healthy cash flows throughout the ups and downs of the business cycle. Our strong balance sheet and good liquidity during these distressed business conditions continues to be a source of real competitive advantage. Finally, underlying demand going into this crisis was robust. As we see America reopen for business, we believe that demand is still there and it will return quickly in most end-use markets. However, as you might expect, we are taking steps to further enhance our liquidity position during this time of significant uncertainty. We will also continue to look for ways to enhance our competitive position through the strategic allocation of capital. Nucor is currently evaluating all of our capital projects across the enterprise to determine which projects will continue to move forward, which projects we will pause as we assess the depth and severity of the pandemic and oil crisis facing our globe; and finally those projects that we will readdress at another time. We're also aggressively managing all inventory positions including scrap with finished goods. We believe that these initiatives will allow Nucor to generate more than an additional $1 billion in free cash flow in 2020. I also want to note that we believe it's vital for Congress and the administration to move forward immediately with a significant infrastructure spending bill with a strong made-in-America provisions that include melted and poured for the United States steel industry. Our domestic infrastructure needs have been neglected for too long. A large-scale infrastructure effort would not only generate the economic activity and jobs we need now but would also be an investment in our nation's future competitiveness. In closing, let me just note that we have faced crises before at Nucor and it is during these times when the strengths and sustainability of our company are most evident. As we move forward, Nucor will stay focused on the health and safety of our team, serving our customers and supporting our communities while preserving and growing shareholder value. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, Leon. I join Leon in offering my thoughts and prayers to everyone impacted by this terrible virus and also my tremendous gratitude to the heroes working on the front lines to stabilize and end the pandemic. The Nucor team has responded to this challenge, the way our company's met every difficult period we've faced over the years by focusing our talents and commitment on building an even stronger Nucor for each other, our customers, our shareholders and the communities in which we work and live. The resiliency and sustainability of Nucor's business model is built on these powerful attributes
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon and welcome to our first -- Thank you, Jim. Before we move to Q&A, let me just comment on the substantial charges we took related to our Duferdofin investment during the quarter. We acquired our 50% interest in Duferdofin-Nucor during the summer of 2008. Soon after the transaction closed we were faced with a dramatic shift in the regional economic outlook and the scope and severity of the global financial crisis became clear. We, our partners, and the Duferdofin teammates quickly turned to the task of positioning the business for sustainable success in a new environment. Over the years Duferdofin has made considerable progress at enhancing its capabilities and improving its efficiencies. But even as great strides were made within the business the regional economic environment has only become more challenging. With the advent of the coronavirus pandemic with particular severity in Northern Italy and some further changes in regional market dynamics, it's become clear to us that the investment was worth substantially less than its carrying value on our balance sheet. Operator we're now ready to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question today comes from Chris Terry of Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Hi guys and I hope you're safe and well. A couple of questions from me. Just wanted to start on the CapEx just high level. So, the reduction to less than $1.5 million this year does that mean 2021 and 2022 et cetera? The total $3.5 billion of growth opportunities that you were seeking is that still the number? So we should look at that as basically a deferral or have you changed the next few years as well? Thank you. That's my first question.
Jim Frias:
Yes, this is Jim Frias. I'll start with that question and Leon if you want to add something you can. But quite frankly, what we're doing is taking an approach that gives us flexibility. So, depending on what our outlook is as we progress through the year we may end up spending more than $2 billion next year or less than $2 billion next year. We have flexibility to choose how quickly we put things back up to full ramp in terms of those CapEx projects. So, in 2021 it's too early to call. We'll make a decision on that by the end of the year.
Chris Terry:
Okay. And then just trying to square some of the cash items. I think you commented that you expect to still get over $1 billion in free cash flow. I wonder if you could comment on your cash tax rate which I think is quite a bit below your P&L tax rate and just some of the working capital improvements. I know you talked about 2009-2015, but just wondered if you could give some details behind the free cash flow number. Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Just to clarify I think I meant to read cash from operations not free cash flow in that portion of the script and that net working capital would add to cash from operations by roughly $1 billion. But let me walk you through some of the pieces when you come up with computing what our cash from operations will be and then after CapEx what free cash flow would be. So, you have to start with an earnings number. I'm not going to give you a forecast running through the year. We really don't know what earnings should be but certainly we're going to make money this year. Then you would add to that our depreciation and amortization, that's roughly $720 million. We think working capital the point that Leon was making is going to generate more than $1 billion of additional cash from operations this year. And then finally we are going to get a tax benefit that depends partly on how much money we make but the full potential is $350 million this year because of the accelerated depreciation, we're getting on projects that will start up this year. This has nothing to do with the deferred projects excuse me. And then over the next three to four years that tax benefit is likely to be $700 million to $750 million. So, does that cover it for you Chris?
Chris Terry:
Yes, that's helpful. Thank you. And then the last one for me a number of companies have commented that non-res construction market is the one area of relative strength within the context of the demand for 2Q and heading forward. I just wonder, if you could comment on whether you believe that it's because there's a backlog, or because that industry will stay robust. Just hard to sort of differentiate between the three to four-month backlog that other companies have talked about? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Chris, as we looked at construction, it's sort of a dichotomy in today's pandemic. And so what I would tell you is, I'm incredibly proud of our Vulcraft/Verco and Building systems teams all of which have set record profitability in the first quarter. But as we moved into Q2, their backlogs continue to grow and so there's a lot of resiliency in this market. And so, we're optimistic, but also looking to be very deliberate in how we spend, and as Jim mentioned, our flexibility towards capital allocation as we move forward. But that is the area that has shown great resiliency as we move through this current climate.
Chris Terry:
Great. That’s it for me. Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Chris.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Gagliano of BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. So I just want to clarify something here. The press release reads to me, I think, it says that Nucor has decided to freeze spending on certain capital projects currently in process and then delay capital projects that have not begun. But the remarks it just sounded to me like, they indicated that the projects for 2020 start-up are actually basically still on pace to happen. And it sounds like 2021 and beyond pipeline really haven't been any decisions made as of yet. So my questions are, specifically, what projects are being deferred and frozen and for how long? And then, secondly, where does the $500 million reduction in 2020 CapEx come from specifically?
Leon Topalian:
Okay, David. Thank you. I'll begin and Jim maybe some commentary at the end. So as we look at the projects that we've talked about for probably the last 18 months around that $3.5 billion of investment all of the long products, the micro mills in both Sedalia, which is running, Frostproof are going to move forward. The bar mill expansion, as Jim mentioned in his comments, in Kankakee is moving forward and now beginning to commission. Our Marion upgrades are up and running. So really the pause that we're taking on capital expenditures come both in Brandenburg and the plate mill as well as the Gallatin expansion. And both of those are a pause in timing, not strategy. We are very committed to producing plate and believe we're going to have a differentiated product offering in both Brandenburg and Gallatin and offering things that no other EAF producer can currently offer. So as we move forward, as Jim mentioned, it's too early to view the -- to any one landscape, but those projects will come back. It's just a matter of timing and when we execute them.
Jim Frias:
Yes. David, if I could add to that. I would say that the other thing is there are a number of projects that are small that we never broadcast what they specifically are, that we are -- we're spending on where it makes sense. Some we're pouring out for long for its completion that it didn't make sense to stop them. Others were early days, where we could stop them without causing a disruptive effect on equipment suppliers, or on our divisions that were executing those projects. The other thing I'd say is that, with these bigger projects we are continuing to spend on things that we think are critical path items such as engineering and permitting, so that if there is some delay we can minimize that delay if we gain confidence and decide that we want to push and accelerate capital spending again, try and get these projects online sooner rather than later.
David Gagliano:
Okay. That sounds good.
Jim Frias:
The other thing I would say in the long haul is maximizing flexibility.
David Gagliano:
Okay. Understood. I appreciate. That's helpful. So just a couple of quick follow-ups. On plate mill and the Gallatin expansion, how much of the $500 million reduction is attributable to pausing those two projects specifically? And then, the second question is, the timeline in the previous presentation showed the Gallatin expansion mid-2021. And then the plate mill, obviously, the biggest project I think in the history of Nucor late 2022 start-up. What should we be thinking about sort of the time line now for both those projects? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
David, I'll begin with the latter question first and maybe Jim can comment to the specific or not. But as we think about Brandenburg as well as Gallatin, one of the things right now is, really too early to predict when we'd start back. What I would tell you in Brandenburg's case, the engineering is going to continue moving forward. And so, even if we pause for three or four months, that really won't have a material impact on the start-up because we'll be able to make that up as we move through construction, because quite frankly, our engineering will be that much further along. So, it really is a dependent factor on when do we unpause and when do we continue to move forward. And so, a little early to tell but we'll have more color on that in clarity as we move into the quarter.
Jim Frias:
Thanks. The other thing I'd say is, we don't really want to break down the detail of where the savings are coming from. But certainly Gallatin and as well as the plate mill in Brandenburg are big contributors to that reduction in CapEx.
David Gagliano:
Okay. Great. And then just last piece, the Gallatin start-up time line, it was mid-2021. Now, what do you think it's going to be?
Leon Topalian:
Look, we haven't revised that yet David again quite frankly because we just don't know how long that pause may be. It could be another month and we're executing and we didn't delay it all. But we'll have to just wait and see as we assess the length and the depth of this pandemic and oil crisis.
David Gagliano:
Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you, very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Seth Rosenfeld of Exane BNP.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions. If I may with regards to the steel products business, I wonder if you can give a little bit more color with regards to the fabrication backlog and how you see those develop over recent weeks. And when you think about how your steel products business intersect with the mills, should we think about that as being an increasing bit of a buffer as perhaps third-party sales in the mill divisions fall in Q2? Do you expect to increase your internal sales going into downstream fabrication steel products? And then lastly maybe some color with regards to margins and how you expect it to progress going into Q2 assuming a reduction in scrap input costs for steel products? Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Thank you, Seth. If we don't get all three parts of that question, let me know. Chad Utermark, why don't you start out on the first part of the question regarding backlogs in our products businesses?
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks, Leon. In both our joist and deck and Nucor buildings group as well as rebar fabrication, our backlogs are strong. They're actually up year-over-year. This is led by a large commercial and warehouse projects data centers. And quite frankly, COVID-19 has had a very small impact. We have had some regional delays and stop work orders, but we would expect as states come back online for those projects to start again. This continued solid and steady non-res construction market I think leads us well into Q2 and Q3. Now historically, when there's economic downturns, our businesses will lag six to nine months and we'll see a little bit of a pause. With this self-induced economic downturn, I think time will tell whether that impact will be the same. But we are -- we have a strong backlog right now. We're pretty excited about Q2 and Q3.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Chad. Jim, did you make -- want to comment?
Jim Frias:
Yes. The internal tons consumed we think of that as an important strategic advantage our position there because roughly 20% of our steel typically goes into those downstream businesses. In 2019, that was roughly four million tons if we just count our holding and subsidiaries. If we include fuel technologies which we own half of it would have been 4.5 million tons in 2019. In the first quarter, just counting the Nucor wholly owned subs, it was 1.15 million tons. So again, a significant amount of the steel that we sell gets to go to businesses that we own and that's a key component. It will not change dramatically in the second quarter. We don't buy very much steel from outside sources. We pretty much self-supply wherever we can already. So, there's not going to be a shift in that mix as we go forward. And I can't remember the third part of your question.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. Was your last part of the question Seth around scrap pricing is that -- I mean is...
Seth Rosenfeld:
I misspoke. Sorry, it was around margin assumptions within steel products into Q2. Not whether are you to scrap, but with regards to the steel input cost if you have an assumption with regards to steel margins -- sorry steel product margins in the Q2 please? Thank you.
Chad Utermark:
This is Chad, Seth. Yes, our margins are strong and we don't anticipate those falling much. Obviously, you know what's going on in the scrap market and steel pricing. And again demand drives our business and right now demand is healthy.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Great. Thank you, very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Timna Tanners of Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
Good afternoon and thanks for the color. Hope everyone is healthy. Wanted to just see if I could get a little more color on how you're talking about now that you're into April so one-third of the way through Q2. It sounds like most of the impact will be more on the flat-rolled side then. And there's been -- like you mentioned in the release kind of cryptically that there's been some closures some supply off so just wanted to know if you could provide a little bit more of a snapshot of how to think about the product so far into the quarter. Is it mostly flat-rolled hit then with some plate and SBQ and then long products are holding up volume wise, or can you provide a little more color?
Leon Topalian:
Sure. Thanks, Timna. And as we look at it yes, the flat side of our business particularly the hot band has probably been impacted along with the engineered bar for the oil and gas segment. So those are the two areas of our business portfolio that have probably been the most impacted. As we think about the longs and construction segments those continue to run in fairly high utilization rate 75-plus in some areas and even stronger in some others. And so but even as we think about the sheet side our value-added product in the cold-rolled and galv are at 80% or better in most of our plants and some running near capacity. So again, it's a little bit of a mixed bag, but overall the automotive and engineered bar would be the most directly impacted for us.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thanks. Then if I could, I want to take it a little higher level and just think about what kind of containment you could see in terms of overhead. So it sounds like you're not as panicked about this downturn as you -- as comparing it to the great finance -- the global financial crisis as you mentioned. But in 2008, 2009 you cut SG&A by $300 million and I'm just wondering if times are particularly challenging, could we expect something comparable in terms of SG&A cuts, or can you provide a little bit more framework around how much you think overhead could be trimmed? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yes. I'll begin and maybe ask Jim to think through some of the tail-end of your question regarding the SG&A. But Timna, I want to make sure we're very clear. There's no Pollyanna-esque about our approach and where we see the markets today. The pandemic facing our lives is bigger than just our industry and steel. It's affecting the global markets worldwide. It's affecting families and businesses, small and big. And so part of the reason you've heard us take a very deliberate moves and pausing Brandenburg, which again strategically makes all the sense in the world and we will move forward on is to really understand just how significant and how long this pandemic and oil crisis may stay with us. And so when Jim alluded to a comprehensive review of every project, we've looked across the spectrum of the enterprise on every capital dollar being spent to maximize our financial levers and the liquidity position as we move forward. Jim, any specifics on the...
Jim Frias:
Yes. I think when you think about SG&A a big component of that is profit sharing and other incentive comp. And when we make less money we have less profit sharing and less incentive comp. Now as you may recall we went into 2009 with a significant overhang a very expensive figure. We're not carrying that load this time. So we're entering this down cycle with a better position in terms of the assets we're carrying in our balance sheet. And so profit sharing probably, won't go down by quite the same amount. Remember profit sharing is the bonus that goes to our employee global level of Vice President. The 10% of pre-tax profit is going to pool and get split amongst all those employees every year. But all of our incentive comp plans will be flexing down and that's where most of those savings will come. And the other thing is as we've sheltered in place across our company even though we're still operating. We are sheltering in place. We have most of our teammates work from home. We're not on the road of making the calls on customers or visiting vendors or doing a lot of the activities that we normally do. So a lot of our SG&A spending will come down too. I don't have a hard number to give you but we are being very thoughtful about saying, okay, let's reduce spending everywhere. Our maintenance teams are doing everything they can to reduce our reliance on contractors as an example of one of the places we're trying to reduce spending. And that's not SG&A that's an operating expense. But we're looking to reduce spending wherever it makes sense in a way that doesn't hurt the business. But at the core of Nucor's philosophy and culture is to value the team. We're not laying off the Nucor teammates at our stables, our fab businesses. That's not part of how we're saving costs.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andreas Bokkenheuser of UBS.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Thank you very much. Just a quick question from me. Just to provide a little bit of a framework around the current oil price. How do you guys think about it just given where oil price levels are and in terms of any benefits it may provide you in terms of lower costs going into the second quarter, but potentially also if you expect any demand destruction for it? And then maybe if you could add a comment as to what extent you're hedging any oil if you are in fact doing that and it's not -- any clarity on that as well would be great. But just kind of like your overall thinking about well when you think of oil at $20 like. How do you think about the impact on your business? Thank you very much.
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Andrew, I'd love to tell you I have a really great picture of clarity. And as you watch every analyst today and yesterday and probably tomorrow about what the oil prices will be in a month. It's really anybody's guess. What I would tell you of the certainties the things that, I do know, Nucor has broad product offering enables Nucor to thrive in the businesses that we're very strong in the construction side of our businesses. We're not overly weighted to oil and gas. About 10% of our overall product is into the direct oil and gas business. And so while it's certainly been a dramatic hit in the length of time we're going to see that impact and how long it takes to fully recover, I don't want to be -- even begin to speculate. But what I do know is our teams are incredibly ingenious in how they continue to operate their mills. And serve the customers in the sectors that are still doing well in the HVAC ag heavy equipment other sectors that we continue to supply direct business as well as our service centers in.
Jim Frias:
Yeah. Let me add to that Leon with just an idea from our cost perspective. Oil itself is not a primary cost driver for Nucor. Our biggest cost is raw materials. Our next biggest cost is energy. But that's mostly electricity. Obviously, we have a lot of mobile equipment. And we have an overworked fleet at some of our businesses that delivers product to our customers. But oil gasoline diesel fuel costs, they're not insignificant if you just think about that number. But as a percentage of overall costs they're fairly insignificant. And we don't hedge those excuse me I meant to mention that as well.
Andreas Bokkenheuser:
Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Jim Frias:
Thank you.
Operator:
And our final question today comes from Phil Gibbs of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Hi. Good afternoon.
Jim Frias:
Good afternoon, Phil.
Phil Gibbs:
Just a question on the raw materials side, one what's the May outlook for scrap as of right now best you can tell? And then secondarily when should we expect your DRI operations to begin production? I know Trinidad was shut down and there was press about Louisiana being shut down as well.
Leon Topalian:
Certainly, I'll begin and then maybe ask Craig Feldman to jump in and maybe add some thoughts. As we think about the scrap from a -- look there's some tightening. Obviously, we're watching what's happening internationally. But also domestically, we think May will be up. As we think about obsoletes that will really be a demand driver but also on prime the availability of prime with the auto plant shutdown and access to that is an element where we have some great flexibility as our DRI plant in Louisiana comes back online. And in fact it's producing prime as of today and I'll let Craig add some more detail to that. But as we get into this market and really the tightness around prime and the value-added products that we serve our customer base with the DRI is going to be a great benefit and a benefactor as we move forward. Craig, do you want to add anything?
Craig Feldman:
Sure. On the scrap market itself, yeah, there's a lot of availability internationally and we participate in a fair amount of that both the scrap and substitutes including pig iron. And as Leon alluded to you could certainly see some constraints on the prime scrap domestically. But I think that finds its own level fairly quickly. You could see a lag in supply of prime scrap obviously with the automotive producers shut down. But as they come back online the availability will increase. And I think that'll find a pretty good balance relatively quickly. And I guess, the other point, I would make is we really do have a unique flexibility within our sourcing strategy our raw material strategy. We can flex between pig iron sourced on the seaborne market our own two DRI plants our DJJ scrap yards. So we really do have the ultimate ability to shift and flex in that regard. And then, the other part of your question, I guess is related to the DRI plants. The -- turn -- as you alluded to turns out. It's still down subject to a government order. Although, we are waiting a decision we do expect to resume operations fairly quickly there. And I know the team there is eager and ready willing and able to jump in and get back to work as soon as that government order is lifted. Finally, as it relates to Louisiana, we opted early in the month to idle. And as Leon said, we're producing prime today. The team has done a wonderful job of bringing that plant back up safely and back in operation today. And I would also just point out that the reliability that they've improved on the last several months prior to this pause I know the Louisiana team is anxious to get back to producing at a high level as they were prior to the brief pause. And again the flexibility that that DRI gives us in the marketplace as something that really positions us very uniquely.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Craig.
Phil Gibbs:
And Leon, the comments that you made on infrastructure, specifically in your prepared remarks, is that something that you're advocating as a good idea just because obviously it would benefit the steel industry, or is that something you feel like is gaining support for some eventual outcome in the next 12 months? Because obviously this can has been kicked for a couple of decades.
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Look I think it's both. I like my predecessors with John Ferriola and Dan are going to be a tireless advocate for fair trade in the United States, but it's bigger than that. One of the things that the global overdependence of the supply chain into China has done to the American people is it's opened our eyes not just in manufacturing and steel but in pharma our overdependence in medical devices and PPE and equipment. It is time for our nation to be a nation that builds and makes things in the United States again. And quite frankly with more than 25 million Americans out of work today, a strong $1 trillion, $1.5 trillion, $2 trillion infrastructure bill will put hundreds of thousands if not millions of American workers back to work. It is something we need in this country desperately Phil.
Phil Gibbs:
I appreciate that. And then lastly, I think you also mentioned in your prepared remarks that you're taking some time at Hickman to progress on advanced high-strength steels with your customers. Is this downturn specifically allowing you to accelerate those efforts? And trying to just gauge how that's being received and when we might be able to see some commercial success. Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
Yeah. Look, short answer is yes. It is allowing us to do some of those things. The team at our Hickman facility has done an amazing job of bringing that cold mill complex up and online. We're continuing to progress the galvanizing line that again will be the first EAF producer to produce a generation three steel for the auto industry. The fact that we serve all the major OEMs as a Tier 1 direct supplier gives us great access so those trials are ongoing. I couldn't be more excited and optimistic about the work that our team has done in positioning Nucor for the future supplier of choice in that sector.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks very much.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Phil.
Operator:
That concludes the question-and-answer session today. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
I'd be remiss in not taking a moment to thank Ladd Hall for his nearly 40 years of service to Nucor. Ladd on behalf of the 27,000 men women of Nucor, we would like to thank you Sally and your entire family for your dedication, service and sacrifice to our company. And while our nation faces this crisis and times of uncertainty, there are a number of things that our investors, customers and team can be certain about
Operator:
And this does conclude today's call. We appreciate everyone's participation today, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Now, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Leon Topalian, President and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call. In my first call, as CEO of Nucor, I'm honored to have the opportunity to lead this company and to serve alongside the 27,000 men and women of Nucor, who inspire me every day. Joining me on the call today are the members of Nucor's executive team, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Craig Feldman, responsible for raw materials and logistics; Ladd Hall, responsible for flat-rolled products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for engineered bar products, as well as Nucor's digital initiatives; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for plate, structural and tubular products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for merchant bar and rebar products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for fabricated construction products. I also want to thank John Ferriola for his leadership during the past seven years as CEO and the impact he has made over his 28 years with our company. We thank him for his many contributions to Nucor and wish him all the best in his retirement. At Nucor, our greatest competitive advantage is our culture and the greatest measure of that culture is how we care for one another through the value of safety. 2019 was the safest year in our history and I would like to thank all of my teammates for achieving this tremendous result. Nucor is a continuous improvement company. Our challenge and opportunity is to achieve breakthrough improvements in this core value. Over the last several months, I have engaged our team to ask how we can continue to improve our performance in safety, and we plan to work together with our teammates to implement their ideas and strategies. I look forward to making 2020 an even safer year for Nucor together. In 2019, Nucor recorded earnings of $4.14 per diluted share. This was a good result, given the challenging steel market conditions that prevailed throughout much of the year. Strong performance in many of our steel products businesses helped to partially offset the destocking, that negatively impacted our steelmaking operations. In particular, I would like to recognize both Vulcraft and Verco and our Buildings group, which each achieved their most profitable year ever, as well as our rebar fabrication operations, which posted much improved results over 2018, reflecting both strong execution and favorable non-res construction market conditions. Thank you for this result. We believe that inventory destocking concluded in the fourth quarter when customers resume more normal buying patterns. General business conditions also improved as the fourth quarter progressed due to a number of factors, including a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the new labor agreement between the United Automobile Workers and GM, as well as progress on U.S.-China trade relations and the passage of the U.S., Mexico, Canada trade agreement by Congress. With regard to the USMCA, we applaud the House and Senate for passing the agreement with overwhelming bipartisan support. The new trade deal with Canada and Mexico is a significant win for the U.S. steel industry, especially given the revamp of rules of origin that will greatly incentivize the use of North American steel and autos, auto parts and other products containing steel. All in all, we sense noticeably more optimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy as we head into 2020. I would like now to share with you my most immediate priorities for our company, as I begin my tenure as Nucor's CEO. There are four key areas that we, as a leadership team, will focus on and execute on. First, we as a team, care for one another through the value of safety, to further strengthen our culture, which is a key driver of our success. Secondly, the execution of the $3.5 billion of growth projects we are bringing online, execution begins with bringing these projects online safely and we have been doing that. Once they begin operating, we need to ensure that we stay focused on generating appropriate returns from these investments. All of these investments are focused on Nucor's goal of being the supplier of choice, both today and tomorrow. We are staying ahead of the curve in adding the high-value products that our customers are asking for. Third, effective management of our portfolio of businesses to maximize our earnings potential. Ensuring our future success requires both making sound growth investments and addressing areas of underperformance. We will harness Nucor's culture of continuous improvement to achieve the full return potential across our entire asset base. Finally, I have taken over the leadership of a company, whose ability to attract, retain and develop great people has always been key to our success. So, we will remain relentlessly focused on talent. Our team members create the true value in our company. We have more than a 90% retention rate and I believe we have the most engaged, passionate and driven team members in the world. We will continue to attract great team members by making sure the talent and passion of our team is more broadly recognized outside the company and we are committed to further enhancements of our programs to develop and retain our valuable team members. There will be more to come in all four of these areas as the year progresses, but I wanted to share these initial priorities with you today. Let me conclude my prepared remarks this afternoon with an update on some of our more significant capital projects. We achieved important milestones on several of them during the quarter. At our DRI plant in Louisiana, the critical work of replacing the convection section of our process gas heater as well as realigning the reactor refractory was completed in November. The work was done safely, on time and within budget. We expect these projects will further improve the plant's reliability. My thanks and congratulations to the team in Louisiana for their successful execution on this key phase of Project 8000 and for their performance in 2019, which was our second best year ever for uptime and output, despite the 70-day planned outage. Two of our growth projects, our specialty cold mill complex at Nucor Steel Arkansas and the new galvanizing line at Nucor Steel Gallatin continued to ramp up production during the fourth quarter. Feedback from our customers on the product set of Gallatin and Hickman has been excellent. And now that we are operating, we have seen even more opportunities to align with our customers. Utilization at Gallatin's galvanizing line is already over 50% and Hickman's new cold mill is operating 24/7. We had contract customers for 31% of the new cold mill's capacity at year's end. Qualifications are ongoing and we expect to be IATF certified by mid 2020 at Hickman's new state-of-the-art reversing cold mill. Several other growth projects are coming online early in 2020 as well, including our new rebar micro mill in Sedalia, Missouri, the new merchant bar quality mill at Nucor Steel Kankakee and our JV galvanizing line located in Central Mexico that we are operating with JFE Steel of Japan. We have arced both the EAF and LMF furnaces at Sedalia in recent days and our new teammates there are hitting the ground running. Already serving customers with product made from billets, we expect to ramp up to continue to go well. Kankakee experienced some delays in equipment deliveries in the permitting process, but we expect to come in at our initial capital budget of approximately $190 million. We expect to start shipping product during the second quarter. At our joint venture with JFE in Mexico, we look forward to beginning trial shortly and serving our automotive customers in Central Mexico. The facility's opening has been delayed due to some challenges that we did not anticipate. For example, more difficult soil conditions required incremental piling, resulting in higher cost than budgeted. We also found that the local electrical system infrastructure was insufficient for our needs and decided to acquire additional land for our operational footprint. These events increased the total capital budget from our initial estimate of $270 million to approximately $360 million with Nucor's share of these amounts being 50%. While this is disappointing, JFE and Nucor will remain very excited about the JV's prospects and are very confident in the product and our partnership. This is especially so, following the recent passage of the USMCA with its North American content rules. Finally, we are excited to report that we have teammates on the ground and have begun excavation work for our new plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky. The mill is the largest investment in our company's history. And when it begins to operate in 2022, Nucor Steel Brandenburg will be able to produce 97% of the plate products demanded in the United States market. With that, let me turn it over now to Jim Frias, who will discuss our financial results in greater detail.
James Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Nucor reported fourth quarter of 2019 earnings of $0.35 per diluted share. Included in these results were non-cash impairment charges of $66.9 million or $0.17 per diluted share. Of that amount, $35 million or $0.09 per share related to our natural gas well assets, $20 million or $0.05 per diluted share related to a long-lived asset impairment in the steel mills segment and $11.9 million or $0.03 per share related to the writedown of certain intangible assets in the steel product segment. These results exceeded our fourth quarter of 2019 guidance range of $0.25 to $0.30 per share. The amounts of these non-cash impairment charges were not included at the time we issued our guidance on December 12. Our fourth quarter included better-than-expected performance across most of the steel mills segment. Our fourth quarter results included approximately $35 million or $0.09 per diluted share, a pre-operating and start-up costs related to strategic investment projects. That compares to approximately $28 million in the third quarter of 2019 and approximately $17 million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding profits attributable to non-controlling interests, the effective tax rate was approximately 24.5% for the full-year. Going forward, we expect Nucor's effective tax rate to continue to be in the range of 24% to 25%, barring any unusual items. In 2019's challenging steel market conditions, Nucor generated record operating cash flow of approximately $2.8 billion. Capital expenditures for 2019 totaled approximately $1.5 billion. For 2020, we expect capital spending to exceed $2 billion. Major components of this year's capital budget include the Brandenburg greenfield plate mill, the Gallatin sheet mill's hot band production capacity expansion, the Hickman sheet mill's new galvanizing line and our Florida rebar micro mill. In addition to investing for long-term profitable growth, Nucor's disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation rewards our shareholders with attractive cash returns. Cash return to shareholders during 2019 totaled $791 million or 62% of net income for the year. We paid dividends of $492 million. We also repurchased approximately $299 million of our stock, about 5.3 million shares at an average cost of just over $56 per share. With the dividend increase announced in December, Nucor has increased its base dividend for 47 consecutive years, every year since it first began paying dividends in 1973. Over the 10-year period ending in 2019, Nucor has returned a total of more than $6 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our focus continues to be unaffected stewardship of our shareholders' valuable capital via both disciplined investments that we expect will generate returns, well in excess of our cost of capital as well as attractive cash returns to our shareholders. Nucor's financial condition remains strong. We ended 2019 with $1.8 billion in cash and short-term investments. With total debt outstanding of approximately $4.3 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 29% at the end of the fourth quarter. Our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility remains undrawn and does not mature until April of 2023. Our next significant debt maturity is in 2022 for approximately $600 million. Now turning to the outlook. Nucor's earnings in the first quarter of 2020 are expected to increase as compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. We are encouraged by improving conditions in the U.S. steel markets entering 2020. We believe this reflects the end of the severe inventory destocking that occurred last year and ongoing modest growth in end-use markets overall. We expect first quarter earnings in the steel mills segment to increase from the fourth quarter due to price increases and expected higher volumes. It is worth noting that December, a historically weak month, was the highest profit month in the fourth quarter for our steel mills segment. The profitability of the steel product segment is expected to decrease as compared to the fourth quarter, due to normal seasonality. The performance of the raw material segment is expected to increase compared to the fourth quarter, due to improved pricing for raw materials. It is worth noting the outlook from an end-use markets perspective. We see stable or growing end-use markets, accounting for approximately 70% of our shipments. Leon mentioned the strength of non-residential construction markets. We see this continuing into 2020. Non-residential is an important demand driver for our industry. Boat's order rates and backlogs are up across our Buildings group and in our joist and deck business. We are also hearing similar things from our structural fabrication customers. Nucor is the leading supplier of structural beams in the U.S., with the broadest product offering. It is a privilege to support our fabricated customers and important projects across the country. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. I will now turn the call back over to Leon.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Jim. At this time, we are now ready to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from the line of Martin Englert with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Martin.
Martin Englert:
So, you provided some commentary on the demand front and maybe if you could frame up what your expectations are for U.S. steel demand in 2020 versus last year, talking about some of the puts and takes among the end market? And then, also, based on the activity that you are seeing today in the order books, what is the sequential change might you be expecting within steel volumes in first quarter here?
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Martin, let me begin first by stating how humbled and excited I am to be leading the Nucor team. I stand shoulder to shoulder with the greatest manufacturing team assembled anywhere in the world. And I'm surrounded with the most experienced executive team in the industry. And so, as I mentioned in the opening comments, we do see 2020 being a - shaping up to be a better year than 2019. Non-res construction is strong. We believe destocking has really been completed, we have seen some of the restocking, but as we talk about order entry rates, there is a marked improvement in Q4, we see that continuing. Our backlogs are strong, as Jim mentioned in his comments. The fabrication community, their backlogs are very strong into 2020. So, we see the outlook is fairly optimistic as we move into 2020.
Martin Englert:
Okay. And then, how - sorry, go ahead.
James Frias:
Yeah, the second question was about the volumes we are anticipating in Q1 and we don't give that specific guidance, but I will say qualitatively, especially regarding our sheet business, we have had 15 straight weeks, where order significantly exceeded - I would say significantly, but more than 10% exceeded our production capacity and so we have built our backlog by about two weeks since the end of September, so about two weeks longer. So, we are going to run the sheet business at least near full for the first quarter. The rest of our businesses have not really run full consistently for a number for a number of years, other than periodically once full, but we feel very confident sheet will run full. We are not going to give guidance about volume overall other than to maybe give that data point. I think, it is also worth noting that last week, the third week of January, was one of the strongest weeks of order input we have seen in sheet since the improvements began in mid-October.
Martin Englert:
It sounds like a stronger start, maybe, on a sequential basis than what we have seen in the couple of past few years, though, based on your commentary?
James Frias:
The only - maybe than last year. The year before that, it is going to be hard to beat. It has a pretty strong first quarter pick up in 2018.
Martin Englert:
Okay, understood. And if I could one more, with growth CapEx increasing, could you touch on any need to draw on the revolver, perhaps, increase other debt to support the growth initiatives? And also, remind us of minimum cash balances and leverage targets for the Company?
James Frias:
Sure. So, we are starting the year with a very strong liquidity position, $1.8 billion in cash and short-term investments. And so, we are going to have peak CapEx over the next two years and then it should taper off based on the projects we have announced and have in our pipeline actively today. And so, we could be slightly cash flow negative over the next two years. And then - but over the next five years, we would expect to be strong cash flow positive. So, right now, we would not expect to draw on the revolver. We would be more likely to issue CP if we got to that point, but with the $1.8 billion cushion, I don't see that likely this year.
Martin Englert:
Okay. So rather other debt forms as opposed to the revolver if needed, but you don't anticipate that at this point?
James Frias :
That is correct. And again, we need about [$400 million to $500 million] (Ph) liquid cash. You asked that question, I didn't answer that part, just to sort of support the liquidity in the business.
Martin Englert:
Okay, thanks for all the detail there and congratulations for a strong finish for the year.
James Frias :
Thank you.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Martin.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Chris Terry:
Hi, Leon and Jim, and congrats on the new role, Leon. A question I wanted to dig into a little bit more was on CapEx. You touched on that last question, but just a few more specifics, if I may. So, you said, I think, $2 billion around that level for 2020. You said $3.5 billion for your total projects. So, from the calculation we have done, we still got about $2.3 billion of that $3.5 billion still to spend. Can you maybe just give us some color on how we will - how 2021 will shape up as you go through the numbers and maybe after you have done these expansions, what the sustaining level would look like? Thank you.
James Frias :
Yeah. Our maintenance CapEx, we think of as being in the range of $500 million per year, as that is embedded in that more than $2 billion that we expect to spend in 2020. It is too early to say for 2021, but I think 2021 would be similar in levels to 2020, both years would be in the neighborhood of $2 billion or just north of there and then, it would be a fairly significant drop-off relative to the things that we have committed to get this point in time. We could, of course, identify other projects between now and then that would increase that. And the other thing is, each year, as part of year-end process, we have put up some slides that give color to our CapEx spending items and we will be putting those up today after the call on our website for investors to see.
Chris Terry:
Okay, thanks for that. And that includes the - what is the additional spending for the paint line that you announced in December. I assume that is around the $100 million level or something in that ballpark?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, Chris, as we - and we are very excited about the announcement of our paint line and we are broadening our downstream offering to our customers. we have not released that number. As we are getting into the - kind of completing the engineering review, as we get that finalized, we will announce that to you and ensure that we do in the coming weeks.
Chris Terry:
Okay, thanks for that. So, just to reiterate from the first question, so, you said through the next couple of years, you are comfortable funding the dividend and maintaining the business out till the CapEx drops off, you are comfortable managing sort of the capital management part of the business, even though the CapEx will be elevated for those two years.
Leon Topalian:
That is correct, Chris.
James Frias :
Yeah, agreed.
Chris Terry:
Okay. And the last one from me, just in terms of the new Missouri mill, just wondered if you could give a few more specifics on the ramp up of that. And then, just what you are seeing in the rebar market specifically? Thanks.
Leon Topalian:
We are very excited about the strategy behind the micro mills, and I will ask Dave Sumoski here in a minute to maybe provide a little update on Sedalia specifically, but that investment strategy and our capital allocation philosophy to become and maintain the world-class position in rebar by serving those markets where our customers are at, a high propensity of the scrap, is critically important to us in maintaining that. Dave, anything you would like to update there?
David Sumoski:
Yeah. The only thing I would add on that - I mean, you hit it, but if you look at just the nameplates, it would indicate that we are adding about 700,000 tons of additional rebar, but there is more to our strategy than that. We have a very deliberate process to realign our product mix in the bar group and in another groups, but specifically, you are talking about the bar group. And this includes producing higher value products at some of our - some of our other divisions and that process has begun. It has been thought for some period of time. And I will just share a couple of examples - Texas facility is now on pace to make about 150,000 tons of SBQ and our Darlington mill now makes about 300,000 tons of rod and when they add their degasser down there, it will move up the value chain even more on the rod market and they will start producing more SBQ. So we are shifting rebar from some of our divisions to these new locations, where it makes more sense. At the end of the day, we are going to move up the value chain, but we will not abdicate, we will not abdicate markets and customers have been very good to us over the years. Specifically on the start-up, I am being told that we are going to melt the heat. We are going to go from melt shop all the way through the process on Thursday. we have already commissioned some of the proper - some of the processes and we run some billets through the line and we shipped 700 tons out of there from other divisions, just so we can get our ERP system up and working. That is where we are at it.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, David. Does that address your question, Chris?
Chris Terry:
Yeah, that is great. Thanks guys. That is it from me.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Hey, good afternoon. Happy new year, and Leon, I am looking forward to working with you.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon. How are you, Timna.
Timna Tanners:
All right, thanks. So, I just wanted to step back and ask a couple of high level questions, if I could. If we look at the steel products segment, profitability in 2019 is a step up from 2018. I am just trying to figure out how much if any of that was related to declining steel prices and how much might have been related to some of the growth projects? So if we look at 2020 for example, with 2018 under-earning and 2019 over-earning or should we consider it to being building from recent years?
Leon Topalian:
Yeah, let me start up and I will frame it at the high level and maybe ask Chad Utermark or Jim to chime in. One of the areas, Tim, is that I mentioned in my opening comments was to really begin to look at how we scrutinize some of the businesses that we are not meeting our expectations. So one of the examples, I will share with you is in our products group, and Chad and his teams have done an amazing job of rationalizing a market that for many years was about two million tons that shifted down over the last six or seven years to about 1.2 million tons. So we moved operations, combined different manufacturing plants and brands within the same plants and really brought the market needs to fit our supply framework. And by doing so, it is really created a very positive cash position. So I would say that impact is in the result of the team achieving a record year is largely based on those decisions that we made as opposed to just the declining steel prices, which did have some factor. But Chad, anything you would like to add on that?
Chad Utermark:
Yeah, thanks Leon. Yeah, thanks Timna for recognizing that. Obviously, lower raw material costs, as well as the solid non-res construction market that we had, had an impact in a positive way to some of the record we set. But that record performance of the fabricated steel products segment is also benefiting from what Leon just talked about, this restructure in particular of our metal buildings business as well as rebar fabrication business. We are seeing the results, the restructure is resulting in a lower cost structure, some of the capital investments in new equipment changes to our process flow and the volume impact associated especially with metal building group, producing multiple brands at the same plant is really paying off. So we are excited, I think there is even further opportunity for us going forward for us to improve our performance downstream.
Leon Topalian:
Yes, the thing I would add, Timna, is this. We took some of the rewards from the changes we have made to those businesses that Chad talked about metal buildings and rebar fabrication, but we expect to reap further rewards from those changes in 2020. And so we are optimistic that 2020 is likely to be a better year. The other thing I would say is our tube business, which we built through three acquisitions a couple of years ago, didn't have its best year. They were much better in 2018 than they were in 2019. We expect that business to do better in 2020 as well. So, we think 2020 should be a pretty decent year for us in steel products.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, super. And then I kind of want to ask the same questions about raw materials and long products, because 2018 is a really good year, 2019 was a not-so-good year in all those categories and especially for raw materials, there is been so much fluctuation like how should we think about normal EBITDA per ton or margin per ton or however you want to think about it? And same question for volumes in the long products like they fell off in 2019 and so trying to think about how some of these expansions or enhancements can result in better 2020? Thanks for that.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Again, so I got the raw materials and the long products, and again. I will maybe ask Craig to chime in here. But at the end of the day, the longs business for us is a very profitable sector of our business. Market leadership in beams allows us to operate in the roughly 65% to 70% range through most of 2018. But again, as we talked about in sheet, and Jim mentioned, specifically both plate and beams, we have also seen a market shift in order entries and backlogs. And so we are seeing that market improve from 2019. Again, I think a factor of that is the destocking that took place throughout 2019. And as we move into 2020, I think you will see a much more level in tempered business conditions as we move through whether it is scrap or order entry rates. We believe we will be more stabilized as we hit 2020. I think 2018, we saw our customers overbuying demand. In 2019, we saw them under-buying, I think you will see that more balance. But Craig, maybe you would add some color on the raw materials.
Craig Feldman:
Sure. Thank you, Leon. Yes, Timna, no doubt about it. The margin compression we talked about on prior calls, particularly the DRI plants has been real, it is on both sides. It is on the supply side, and of course, our selling prices were challenged in 2019. Going forward, we really don't share EBITDA per ton numbers in that regard in the raw materials group for VRI, what I would just characterize that this a lot of the heavy lifts that we have done over the last year or so, and we have highlighted Project 8,000, a number of times on the call, and the improvements that we made really focused on reliability going forward. So by the middle of the year, I would say that we will toward a more normalized run rate, I suspect that we will see some relief on the iron ore pricing standpoint as well. And we feel very good about the work that we have done related to CapEx and improving the reliability going forward. The team in Louisiana has moved from between 250 tons an hour close than 280 tons an hour, so we feel very good about the operational improvements that we have made there, and generally speaking, you don't know where markets will grow, but fairly positive outlook, once we get past the first half of this year.
David Sumoski:
Yes, this is Dave. I just make one comment on the longs. If you are just looking at bars and the numbers there, two different businesses, so you got the SPG product and then you get a rebar in the MBQ product. And on the rebar and MBQ product, 2018 was a great year, but we are tracking ahead of 2017. So, if you look at that year on the pure bar side. So that industry or that business is supported by the construction industry and that is why we still feel there is a strong construction market out there moving forward. Picking on engineered bar, excuse me, engineered bar kind of lives in our view in a different ecosystem. We don't really sell into the construction market. A couple of our major markets, oil and gas and ag equipment, we are actually down, we have to combine factors of destocking with both OEMs in service centers. So, despite that our engineered bar group, special bar quality picked up share in 2020 - in 2019, excuse me. So, again, not construction related, but a different market situation. So, excuse me, Timna, continue your point, please.
Timna Tanners:
Oh, no, not at all. I just trying to make sure I understood. So it sounds like 2018 tough comp versus 2019 you expect, not the same destocking, better volumes and then sprinkle in some organic improvements, and that is how we should be thinking about 2020?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, it is. I think underlying demands is there. I think it is stable and some of the sectors that Dave and both where I mentioned, construction in particular was strong and we are seeing some slight improvements year-over-year.
Timna Tanners:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth :
Yes, good afternoon. I guess my first question, I guess, I mean Nucor has had a pretty consistent operating philosophy for a long time, that seems like the company has definitely sort of accelerated more of the build for spot mentality with a lot of CapEx. So, I'm just curious with new leadership that are coming, this new perspective, new opportunities. What do you see kind of changing at Nucor? Where do you think the most opportunity for improvement lies? And how do you think your - maybe near-term agenda will be different from prior attendance? It is my first question.
Leon Topalian:
Okay, Curt, I would frame it up this way. It is not easier for me to talk about those things that are not going to change. Our focus on our core, our culture is going to remain very much intact. How we care for our 27,000 men and women of the Nucor family is critically important. They are the value generators for our future. The $3.5 billion of investment projects we have slated are equipment or things that can be bought. Our team is what revolutionizes and changes the market and the returns that they are able to achieve. And so I couldn't be prouder of our team and we are laser focused after the value of safety curve on executing on that $3.5 billion. It is the second focus for our entire organization and we bring those projects in safely on time and ahead of schedule. And so that is where our focus is at. And then third, we move to really the portfolio management. How do we continue to think about growth in the short and medium term and long-term, and then coupling that with how do we scrutinize those businesses that have not returned the levels of profits and shareholder returns, we have come to expect of ourselves and the investors have come to expect of us. So, based on those focus, I would tell you that there is not a shift in what - how John led or Dan DiMicco led. What I would tell you is the destinations are very similar. The routes we may take to get there might be slightly different than the all of us use ways or Google Maps to get into the city. I may go to New York City five different ways, five days in a row. But how I communicate or the things that we do to achieve the result, the results are focused on the safety of our team and executing really well on the valuable shareholder capital that they entrust us with every day.
Curt Woodworth :
Okay, that makes sense. And then I guess, with respect to capital bending and sort of dating myself a little bit here, but if I look at your plate capacity since 2005, it is been pretty consistent around 2.8 million tons and your 15-year utilization rate has been about 80%, and you were at roughly 70% for last two quarters. So I'm wondering, tactically, if we get into a demand situation where the plate stays - demand stays week, would you contemplate postponing plate mill CapEx?
Leon Topalian:
Let me begin with the short answer, no, is the short answer. The longer answer is, we have been in this business now for 20 years, Curt. We understand the markets that we serve, we understand the customer base that is asking for this. And this is something that we contemplated since going back in 2008. So, our focus is for the long term. We understand there is going to be ebbs and flows in the markets. It is a cyclical business, and it is a business we know well, and we have been in and a part for over 50 years. So as we think about plate, the only side of the fact that we will have the most diverse product offering of any mill in one location located in the heart of the largest plates consumable region, the United States. And so by doing so, we really believe we have a differentiated value proposition to offer our customer base that puts us in a low cost position, a market leadership position. And I'm incredibly encouraged by what Mary Emily and Johnny Vegas and the team at Brandenburg willing and be able to do in our future in plates.
Curt Woodworth :
Great, thanks. And best of luck in the future.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Curt.
Operator:
Thank you. We will next go to Andrew Cosgrove with Bloomberg Intelligence. Please go ahead.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. To start off and see if you could shed some light on the non-residential exposure by product on your sheet, bar, plate and structural, if that is helpful?
Leon Topalian:
Give me a little more color. I'm trying to follow your question.
Andrew Cosgrove:
I'm just trying to square up just the exposure to whether sheet, bar, plate, and structural in the non-res segment. I mean, the only reason why I asked is, because just trying to make sense of, I mean long products and I mean all lines are down pretty precipitously in 2019, non-res construction was up low single digits, I understand there were some destocking, but I guess, I'm just trying to see it non-res is still going to be strong and we are not going to get destocking and we will probably get restocking this year, where that might be felt the most?
Leon Topalian:
Look, I would tell you certainly, I think in a rebar, rebar fabrication businesses that are heavily put into the construction market and certainly some of the structural capacity that we have is a big part of that. And then the downstream products and building and - are all factors in non-res construction. So that is the biggest side of the markets, we serve roughly about 30% of our overall products move into that space. But one of the things you mentioned, I would maybe characterize a little bit differently. We think some of the restocking is already occurred. And again, as we mentioned earlier in our comments, I do believe you will see a more balanced approach to 2020 in terms of both service internally and buying patterns. And so, we do believe demand is healthy and we are optimistic too as we head into 2020. Dave, is there something you would like to add?
David Sumoski:
Yes. I would just add that although there is no federal infrastructure bill out there, the states are really stepping up to the plate and they are doing a lot of work. So that is really going to boost in the non-residential construction markets. So, I just wanted to add that.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Okay. Perfect, thank you. And then I guess one on plate, I mean plate import last year were down 20-ish percent and then obviously the plate shipments were also down 12%. I guess, I was just trying to again that also just down to destocking or is there, I guess maybe if you could give some color on specific end markets where there was some weakness in plate specifically and maybe how you kind of see them shaping up right now?
Leon Topalian:
Well, look I will start it and maybe you can chime in if there is anything else. But as we think about the plate and the import levels, I would tell you one of the most impactful things is what we been able to do over the last couple of years. We won 12 trade cases since 2016 in plate, that has dramatically shifted the import coming into this country. Certainly, 232 has helped, however, it is the long-term of the trade cases that we have won and something over 160 cases that we have won, some dating back in plates in 1999. So, our position through the long-term ICC and the Department of Commerce and commandment for what they have done and are doing. But that site has got to remain very vigilant. And so, that is a big part of why you saw the drop off in plate imports. MaryEmily, anything you would like to add on?
MaryEmily Slate:
Just a little bit color on that. You are right. We had the lowest level of imports in the last five years, last year which was great. And we do believe the overall market retracted, but mainly that was due to destocking activity. And we mentioned trade cases, there are still 17 active trade cases going on. So for 2020, we really look for the activity to be consistent. We feel like we are looking at a decent 2020 going forward. Thank you.
Andrew Cosgrove:
Okay, great. Thanks so much and best of luck this year.
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Thank you. We will next go to Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Phil Gibbs:
Hey, good afternoon.
Leon Topalian:
Good afternoon, Phil.
Phil Gibbs:
Welcome to the helm Leon, congratulations.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you very much. Very excited and very humble.
Phil Gibbs:
In terms of the rebar color, it sound like, you are just getting the Missouri mill started in the last week or two. What is your thought around the ramp timeline there? And then, can you give us any color on the Florida mill as well, because I know that was something that was supposed to be around mid-2020?
Leon Topalian:
Certainly. On a high level thought, what I would tell you Phil is, the Micro mill in Sedalia is coming online as we speak to team, it has done a great job and taken care of the team from safety perspective, operating costing and schedule. So, we are excited about that. And then, in the micro mill in Frostproof, Florida, is still slated to come online in summer of this year. So, the other part of that, maybe I will ask Jim to frame some color, because we do think about how are these investments returning and what is that long-term outlook, maybe Jim, you could add some color to those projects.
James Frias :
First of all, specific to your question, I think it is likely that Sedalia reaches breakeven sometime in Q2. And overall, the galv line at Gallatin is already making the positive contribution. We have pre-operating start-up costs in the quarter, I think it was $36 million in the fourth quarter, that is going to come down slightly in Q1, because some of these projects are starting to ramp. The Hickman cold mill is starting to ramp. So, their pre-operating start-up costs come down as they go toward breakeven. Sedalia is going to start to have its pre-operating start-up costs and come down as they strive toward breakeven. Now, later in the year, we will probably have other projects increase the pace of pre-operating start-up costs. But, the projects that are coming online right now and that includes the galv line at Gallatin, the Hickman cold mill, the Sedalia bar mill and the Kankakee merchant bar mill. Those four are going to make a nice contribution to Nucor by the end of this year and a really good contribution to Nucor next year. And we get in the broader numbers that the cumulative projects have $600 million of EBITDA value. I would just say, if you do the math on the CapEx of those projects, you will see a nice jump and that EBITDA is going to benefit Nucor in 2021, and we will start to see some of that fruit by the end of this year.
Phil Gibbs:
At a high level, Jim, the start-up costs, saying they are coming down a little bit sequentially here in the first quarter, but you are expecting the pre-operating start-up costs in total to be lower in 2020 than the 2019 or is that not a fair statement?
James Frias :
No, I would say it is too early to say because we got two big projects getting ramped, and because they are bigger, they will have bigger pre-operating start-up costs. So, the expansion of capacity at Gallatin and the Brandenburg mill, when they come on, it is going to probably greatly increase our pre-operating start-up costs for a period of time. And we don't forecast that out more than one quarter at a time, so I can't tell you what those numbers are. Other than Q1, it probably going to be slightly down. But I would expect for the year, it might actually be slightly up because of those two bigger projects starting to ramp up the costs.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. Fair enough. And then, the comment I think you made Jim on being cash flow negative for the next couple of years given the CapEx, are you throwing in the dividend in that discussion, meaning you are including the dividend in terms of that you are being cash flow negative?
James Frias :
Yes. Dividend plus CapEx against operating, or cash from operations.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. So, you are not saying free cash flow negative, you are just saying after dividend or are we seeing free cash flow negative?
James Frias :
I'm saying after CapEx and dividends.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then lastly, just in terms of first quarter, so we are thinking about this right. Seemingly some operating leverage at least in the sheet division from better volumes in Q1, but overall as we look at the steel business, should we think that realizing metal spreads will be a positive contributor versus the fourth quarter?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I think so, Phil. And again, as we look at scrapping, and obviously an awful lot of discussions. Craig, may want to add some color here, but the market demand standpoint is still strong. And I think one of the drivers that is not discussed an awful lot as we look at scrap, it is really the export market and the demand outside of the U.S. It has an impact on those. So, Craig, anything do you want to add on the raw material stuff side?
Craig Feldman:
Yes, just in general, I would say that there was a lot of commentary around the interest in the spare market as it looks - I think the key drivers is fuel demand and to Leon's comments and the rest of the teams, I think you would hear a fair amount of optimism here. And that is what we are seeing, we are seeing the domestic demand for scrap is relatively strong. So, absent the normal gyrations in the market, I would say, can we see a fairly relatively stable place environment, and again, driven by the steel demand, underlying steel demand.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks so much. That is a lot.
Leon Topalian:
Phil, just one point I want to clarify, I made the statement earlier that Frostproof was expected to come online this summer. We will start commissioning, but it will really come online in Q4 of this year.
Phil Gibbs:
Perfect. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. We will next move to Alex Hacking with Citi. Please go ahead.
Alex Hacking:
Good afternoon, and let me add my congratulations Leon on the new role. I just have one question. Jim, I just have a follow-up on the CapEx guidance really just to make sure I was straight, I think you said 2021, you would be $2 billion-ish similar to 2020. If we take out $500 million a year for sustaining, that is about $3 billion on growth projects for the next two years. I guess that seems a little high compared to what we were thinking. We were thinking total budget of around $3.5 billion, with about $2.5 billion left to spend. I mean, I guess, can you help me pull that gap a little bit? I know you mentioned that...
James Frias :
There are some projects that aren't big enough that we forced to call out that are embed in there as well, there are improvement projects that we don't think of as being CapEx, but they are not building new mill type projects, so we don't call them out. So, there is some other CapEx in there for things that are improvement projects as well.
Alex Hacking:
Okay, it makes sense. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And it does appear we have no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Leon Topalian for any additional or closing remarks.
Leon Topalian:
Thank you, Derek. Before concluding our call today, I want to express our appreciation to our shareholders. We value your investment in our company. We take the obligation seriously that comes with it. And we will treat your investment with great care. I also want to thank our customers. We are excited about the capabilities we are building to better serve you today and most importantly for tomorrow. Thank you for your trust and confidence that you place in the Nucor team each day to supply your needs. We look forward to building powerful partnerships to generate powerful results. And to our Nucor team, thank you for what you are doing for Nucor and our customers everybody, and most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. We are committed to strengthening this core value and by doing so help to improve the safety of our Nucor family and our industry. I'm excited for Nucor's future and for all of us working together to expanding beyond take Nucor to new highs. Thank you to everyone on the call for your interest in Nucor, and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. Again, that does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during the conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them as either -- either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call and for your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also on the call today, including Leon Topalian, our President and Chief Operating Officer; Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Plate, Structural and Tubular Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction products. Last month, I announced my retirement from Nucor, effective at the end of this year. One of my priorities during my time as CEO has been to make certain that we had a deep bench of leadership talent and a robust management succession plan in place. I know we have succeeded on both fronts. Identifying the right leaders is a key component of our Company's future success. I'm delighted that the Nucor Board of Directors has selected Leon Topalian to succeed me as Nucor's next CEO. Leon has proven himself to be an exceptional leader throughout his 23-year career at Nucor. Since 2017, he has served as Executive Vice President, responsible for Nucor's Plate and structural steel mills. Prior to joining our corporate senior leadership, Leon was General Manager at two facilities
Leon Topalian:
Thanks, John. I'd like to begin by saying how honored I am to have the opportunity to lead this amazing company. I look forward to continuing the proud traditions that have made Nucor, the premier steel and steel products company for the last 50 years. A hallmark of our success has and will continue to be our culture, which begins with a nearly 27,000 team members who make up the Nucor family. Our culture drew me to this company 23 years ago and it inspires me daily. And the most important value in our culture is safety. Taking care of our team is the most important responsibility we have. I take it very personally and will work tirelessly to continue Nucor's quest of becoming the safest steel company in the world. Since the announcement, I have been visiting many of our divisions and have been humbled by the warm reception I've received. In talking with our team, it's obvious, they are deeply engaged in our mission and just as excited about Nucor's future as I am. That excitement is especially evident among our team members who are bringing new growth projects online. Let me just say, thank you for your hard work, dedication, commitment and never losing sight of our most important value, safety. I would like now to provide you with an update on some of the projects we're bringing online. At Nucor Steel Arkansas, our Hickman team continues to increase production and improve yield performance on our new specialty cold mill. The mill's flexibility is a key feature with its dual configuration, Hickman's new cold mill can change from a high reduction mill for the advanced strength steels of the future to a very efficient four-high mill in just six minutes. This flexibility separates us from our competition and allows us to efficiently offer a broader range of value-added products. There is no other carbon mill like this in North America. Nucor Steel Gallatin's new galvanizing line team coated their first coils on September 27 with 500,000 tons of annual capacity, Gallatin's 72-inch galvanizing line is the widest hot-rolled galvanizing facility in North America. Gallatin is extremely well positioned to grow Nucor's share of the underserved Midwest heavy-gauge galvanizing hot-band market. At our Marion, Ohio rebar mill, commissioning of the new in line rolling mill was completed in August and the Marion team is currently ramping up production. Early next year, Marion will also install quench and temper equipment to reduce alloy costs. These investments combined with a more energy efficient reheat furnace installed last year will position Marion as a low-cost producer in the region. Other projects on track for start-up by the end of the year include, Nucor Steel Kankakee's MBQ rolling mill, our new rebar micro mill in Sedalia, Missouri and the galvanizing line we're building in Mexico with JFE Steel. As we have said before, we are not adding capacity simply to get bigger. These projects target defined market opportunities where we are confident that we will compete and win highly profitable market share. We are also responding to feedback from our customers regarding their product needs, particularly for value-added products. Nucor is doing more than adding capacity. Nucor is increasing their capabilities to provide our customers with superior value. We achieved that with unique product properties, unmatched product breadth, industry-leading on-time delivery and unrivaled quality. Every growth project we are implementing builds on our competitive strengths to serve new product and geographic markets. With these investments, we are increasing Nucor's long-term earnings power. This is the same strategy Nucor has successfully executed through numerous market cycles over the past five decades. At this time, I will turn the call over to Jim Frias for a review of our financial results. Jim?
James Frias:
Thanks, Leon. Nucor reported third quarter of 2019 earnings of $0.90 per diluted share. These results exceeded our guidance range of $0.75 to $0.80 due to better-than-expected performance at our sheet and bar steel mills as well as from several steel products businesses, most notably joist, deck and building systems. It's worth noting that both our joist and deck business and our metal buildings business are on pace for a record year in 2019. Both of these business groups are benefiting from lower steel prices and excellent commercial execution. The metal buildings business is also benefiting from a restructuring that is realign capacity and reduced fixed costs. Earnings from our steel mills segment were lower than the second quarter due to declining metal margins. Sheet and plate products experienced the greatest pricing pressure, as customer destocking continued in the third quarter. Total steel mills shipments in the third quarter were comparable to the second quarter. Steel mills shipments to internal customers represented 21% of total steel mills shipments in the third quarter, an increase from 19% in the second quarter. Nucor's downstream channels to market strategy remains a key competitive strength of our company. Earnings from our steel products segment improved compared to the second quarter of this year and to the year ago third quarter. Non-residential construction market conditions remain positive. Our businesses appear to have benefited from both the recovery from weather-related disruptions earlier in the year and seasonally stronger construction months. Results from our raw materials segment decreased compared to the second quarter due to further margin compression at our direct reduced iron or DRI operations. In addition, our Louisiana DRI facility began its planned outage in early September, and that is expected to continue until mid-November. Our third quarter results included roughly $28 million of pre-operating and start-up costs related to strategic investment projects, compared with approximately $21 million in the second quarter of 2019 and approximately $11 million in the year ago quarter. First nine months of 2019 cash provided from operations was approximately $2.1 billion, up from about $1.9 billion for the year-ago period. Nucor continues to benefit from its highly variable cost structure, accounts receivable, payables and inventory were a source of approximately $500 million during the first nine months of 2019, reflecting consistent working capital management in a declining steel pricing environment. Capital expenditures totaled $985 million through the first nine months of 2019. Our full year 2019 capital spending budget is now approximately $1.5 billion, a decrease from our prior forecast of $1.8 billion. This change reflects the timing of expected outlays over the balance of this year. Cash returned to shareholders during the first nine months of 2019 totaled $567 million. We paid dividends of $369 million and stock repurchases totaled $198 million. Thus far in 2019, we have returned 49% of our net income to our shareholders, while also investing for long-term profitable growth. Nucor's financial condition remains strong. We ended the quarter with $1.9 billion in cash and short-term investments. With total debt outstanding of approximately $4.3 billion, our gross debt to capital ratio was 28% at the end of the third quarter. Our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility remains undrawn and does not mature until April 2023. Our next material debt maturity is in 2022 for approximately $600 million. Now turning to the outlook. Nucor's earnings in the fourth quarter of 2019 are expected to be lower than the third quarter. While non-residential construction markets remain broadly stable and healthy, manufacturing sector activity has slowed down. We expect earnings in the steel mills segment to further decrease from the third quarter due to the impact of lower steel prices at the end of the third quarter, which will be realized in the fourth quarter shipments. We believe steel prices have bottomed. The profitability of the steel products segment is expected to decrease slightly due to normal year-end seasonality. The performance of our raw materials segment is expected to decline in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter due to the impact of our Louisiana DRI plant's outage continuing until mid-November, as well as further margin pressure throughout our raw materials businesses. Thank you for your interest in our company. I will now turn the call back over to John.
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Before we take your questions, let me make a few other comments. I recently had the privilege of joining the Nucor Steel Indiana team to celebrate 30 years of making steel in Crawfordsville. Three decades ago, our team revolutionized the American steel industry, becoming the first in-slab operation to produce sheet steel using an electric arc furnace. 600 people joined us for the celebration, including local officials, team mates, customers, suppliers and friends and family. Congratulations again to the Crawfordsville team for all they have accomplished over the past 30 years. With regard to trade policy, imports continue to supply a shrinking share of the US demand, thanks to the cost competitiveness of our market-oriented domestic steel industry and effective trade enforcement. At Nucor, we will not take this progress for granted, and we will continue to press for sensible legislation, regulation and enforcement. We also remain hopeful that Congress will approve the USMCA this year. We see it as a meaningful modernization of NAFTA that will benefit the US economy and the domestic manufacturing sector in particular. We would now be happy to take your questions. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Martin Englert with Jefferies.
Martin Englert:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Martin Englert:
Downstream steel products results were fairly strong this quarter. I just wanted to see if you can provide an update on the efficiency initiatives, if there is more to expect there, as well as the rebar fabrication business, was it profitable. And also how those backlogs look compared to a year ago and how you see the non-resi construction moving forward?
John Ferriola:
Let me start with some comments on the business model changes that we've made in our building systems and in our Vulcraft operations. I'm really proud of the job that the team has done and we've always said that we have great team mates in those operations that working in a model that needed to be adjusted. We are making the adjustments and we're seeing very positive results. Is there more to go or we always want to get better, we always said that we can do better tomorrow more than we are doing today. And I'm confident that as we gain more experience with the new models that we will continue to see improvements in those operations. Chad, do you want to add anything to that?
D. Chad Utermark:
Yeah. Thanks, John. Just a couple of comments. So our joist and deck, metal buildings and rebar fabrication backlogs are slightly improved year-over-year. These end use markets are led by warehouse manufacturing and commercial projects and we see them sustainable into the first quarter of 2020. So overall, yes, we’re very excited about the performance of our downstream product groups and look forward as we head into 2020.
John Ferriola:
Leon, do you want to add some?
Leon Topalian:
Yes, I just agree with Chad's comments - and one thing I’d add just on backlogs, I’d tell you our backlogs in the non-resi within the rebar fabrication are strong and we continue to reduce - we're moving waste in inventory through that channel. A - James Frias Yes, this question was about profitability in rebar fab, we did make money in the rebar fab in this quarter for sure.
John Ferriola:
And maybe to just add that up, I’d like to say thank you to our team mates in all of those operations making changes like this. These are not easy to do and the support that we've got from our team mates in all of those operations is what resulted in the success that we've seen as we've made these business decisions. So thank you all for the hard work, thank you for your willingness to adjust to a changing marketplace and more to come.
Martin Englert:
Okay. Again, nice results there and also within the release, you did highlight that you believe steel prices have bottomed, can you discuss what factors you're seeing in today's market that suggest support of current steel prices and perhaps your near-term view on the scrap market?
John Ferriola:
Speaking in general terms across all of our products without getting into specifics, we do feel that in many of our products, the pricing has bottomed. The things that drive that are a couple of things. Number one, you are right, we see the scrap market starting to improve. We anticipate that the scrap pricing will go up about $20 maybe next month, $25 somewhere in that neighborhood, and we think that, that trend will continue throughout the year. Our best guess on scrap pricing right now for the year is up $20 to $40 by the end of the year. And the other thing that I would say that's driving our belief is that when we start to look at our bookings, particularly in our sheet area, over the last several weeks, bookings have improved and we see more energy, and particularly in the hot-band. Cold roll and galvanizing has always been fairly strong. We haven't seen much of a decline in those two products, but hot-band as you know, was really a challenge for the first part of this year. We’ve talked about this in the past, overstocking of inventories last year, the tough weather conditions at the beginning of this year, destocking this year, these are all things that have contributed to challenging steel market during this year. We see that ending. When we look at MSCI inventories, we see them - I mean, they are incredibly low levels and the lowest that we've seen in many, many years. And compared to last year, they down at this time -- same time last year, they down fairly significantly. So these are all things that we see driving comments that we think that the pricing as well as the volumes will increase as we go forward. One more point that I would make is, Leon, do you want to say something?
Leon Topalian:
Sure. Well, Martin, the MSCI numbers, as John pointed out, are down roughly 14% to 20% year-over-year. And so if you look at that compared to the peak, which occurred in the 2015 to 2016 range, it's almost over 20% down compared to that point. So again, year-over-year, we're approximately 14% to 20% across all of our points. Additionally, as we enter the first quarter, particularly in sheet, we anticipate that being and usually is a much stronger quarter as we begin the year and we look forward to that as we enter the next quarter.
John Ferriola:
So as we turn over the New Year, we see business getting better across all of our products, as we said, I think Ted pointed out, we had records in many of our downstream businesses. We anticipate another strong year going into with our downstream business next year. We see improving conditions going into the new year in our steel products.
Martin Englert:
Okay. Thanks very much for all that detail on color and congratulations on the results in a difficult environment.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our next question from Matthew Korn with Goldman Sachs.
Hunter Alley:
Hi. This is Hunter Alley on for Matthew Korn. We noticed in your reporting that you [indiscernible] raw materials and other steel product shipments, we're wondering if you discuss what is the reason for the split in the reporting. And can you discuss what products are going to be included in both of those buckets?
John Ferriola:
The decision to split up more detail was just in response to quest for more information from investors and the breakdown of the other bucket, what's in the other bucket? Metal buildings is in the other bucket and faster is in the other bucket. Is Skyline…
Leon Topalian:
Cold finished.
John Ferriola:
Yes, cold finished. So there is a few different businesses in the other buckets. We took the largest businesses and broken out.
John Ferriola:
I believe the request by some investors came into some of these calls - it could have also been an offline discussion as well.
Hunter Alley:
Okay, okay. Great. Thank you very much. And then on - we noticed that our structural and plate shipments have both been weaker over year, while tubular has been stronger, can you discuss the trends that you're seeing in any markets and if there's anything specific driving changes at Nucor?
John Ferriola:
Well, I’ll start with structural and maybe we'll turn it over to MaryEmily Slate to talk about -- make some comments on tubular. Structural business has been challenged this year. No doubt about it, a lot of it was a result of heavy stocking last year, particularly in the last half of last year and we saw service centers are stocking up pretty heavily and then of course at the beginning of this year, as I mentioned earlier, weather conditions prohibited a lot of the construction from consuming some of that overstocking and we've been going through a destocking period now. I would comment that we think that we're seeing the bottom of that stocking, destocking now is coming to an end and we expect that to pick up a little bit. We also expect to see some benefit from the recent determinations by commerce on fabricated structural steel and we had some very positive preliminary determinations, we are looking forward to some final also positive determinations early part of next year. So those were some of the things that are driving where we were and why we feel, things are going to get better. And Emily, do want to comment on tubular?
MaryEmily Slate:
Absolutely. On tubular products, the OEM and fabricator activity has not been bad this year, it has been pretty stable. But we've also experienced some destocking and people bringing their inventories to lower levels. We feel that, that product group though has seen the lowest levels of inventory, and we'll start with more normal buying patterns here in fourth quarter. So we expect things to get a little bit better. There is also some really good project activity out there that we've been very successful in getting. So, we will look to a bright future.
James Frias:
And John, one other point I'd add and Hunter, you asked about the trends in beams, one of the things I would share with you is, being a market leader in beams, we've -- it's been one of our most profitable groups and as you've seen and that we've reported, while the utilization rates are in that 65 to 70 range, because of our market leadership position, we've been able to maintain a very profitable position in this market and serve our customers' needs while continue to expand our products and our offerings like the grade 65 quench and temper beams to our construction -- customers and supply the needs that they're asking us for.
Hunter Alley:
That's very helpful. Thank you all for the additional color.
John Ferriola:
Welcome.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Hi, Jim. Couple of questions from my side. All the best, John, in retirement. Just firstly on your capital for the quarter, noticed you didn't do anything on the buyback. So I just wonder if you could provide a little bit more color on that. I appreciate you've got a 40% minimum payout ratio and you've already met that I think you commented at 49%. But just a little bit surprised when you've held back a little bit on the capital timing that there was no buyback in the quarter? Thanks.
James Frias:
Yes, thanks for that question. We've got a very intentional process for how we think about returning capital to investors as well as invest in our business, of course, our capital allocation. Mindset begins with the idea that we want to invest in strategic long-term growth and of course we do have a number of projects in our pipeline. And as you kind of noted, we're a little behind in terms of the spending on some of those capital projects, so that's resulted in us temporarily having more cash in the balance sheet. That's going to catch up pretty quickly over the next six to nine months and we're going to need that cash -- some of that cash to fund a lot of the capital projects that are in process. With separate from that, as we think about returning capital to investors, we begin with this idea that we want to return a minimum of 40% of our earnings and then we also want to maintain a debt to capital ratio that supports our strong investment grade credit rating. And in times when that debt-to-capital ratio becomes too low, we will return more like we did late last year when we have a view that we have depth of liquidity. And so it's possible, we'll do more before the end of the year, but it depends on our forecast of cash going into 2020, because working capital has benefited us to the tune of roughly $0.5 billion this year. If steel prices reverse and scrap prices reverse, we're going to need - we're going to have some use of cash in working capital next year. We definitely will see an acceleration in capital spending. So we're being thoughtful about not just where we stand with cash today, but where we expect cash to be through the next year.
Chris Terry:
Okay. Thanks for the color on that. And just in terms of the corporate eliminations, it's quite a bit lower than what we expected for the quarter. I appreciate that the steel mills profitability obviously has an impact on what that number would be. Can you just talk a little bit about some of the one-offs in that and the difficulty in the forecast against that number? Thanks.
James Frias:
Yes, I'm going to answer two questions, one you're not asking, but it's sort of related. SG&A and marketing, admin is also dramatically lower. So the piece that's reflected in both places is incentive compensation. Incentive compensation in the quarter is about $88 million less this year than last year, year-to-date, it's about $140 million [ph] less. And that's affecting both the elims line and the marketing, admin and other line. So -- and that's just because we're making less money. The biggest piece of that profit sharing is what we set aside for employees below the level of Vice President. And then additionally, we have the profit elimination this year in the third quarter was a benefit of about $34 million, last year was an expense of about $67 million. So as margins and steel fall, we revalue that inventory. We can sometimes get a benefit from inter-company eliminations. So we got a benefit in the third quarter this year. Year-to-date, that benefit is about $91 million and last year, the expense was about $228 million. So, that's been a pretty severe swing as well. Those are the two biggest factors affecting the change in elims and the incentive comp is the biggest factor affecting SG&A.
Chris Terry:
Thanks for that. And the last one from me just in terms of the end markets, you've spoken about, most of them, but I just wondered if you could comment on the auto sector specifically? And maybe just I think you normally give color on your 24 end markets, maybe just where they're tracking? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
I will start with the second question first. And just as a general statement, we feel that about two-thirds of the markets that we serve are either stable or growing somewhere around 60% to 65% of them, and that feels about right for us given the conditions out there in the economy. Your question about automotive, certainly, the automotive market has edged down forecasting somewhere around 16.8 - 16.9 [ph], I heard just the other day almost 17 [ph]. So it's down a little bit from last year for certain, but still 16.8, 16.9, those are pretty good numbers and the important I think -- important thing to note for us is that we continue to take a bigger share of that smaller pie. If you look at the tonnage that we sent into the automotive business this year compared to last year, we're up about 15% constant into automotive this year as compared to last year. So we continue to grow our market share and although the pie is shrinking, we continue to get a bigger piece of that smaller pie. We feel real good about where we are in automotive. We are confident that we'll continue to grow and we look at next year we are projecting for 2020 and 2021 even more tonnage going into those markets.
Chris Terry:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with Exane BNP.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Seth Rosenfeld from Exane BNP. A couple of questions please on the long product market. Obviously, we've seen a significant decline in bar prices over the last several months. The metal spreads appear to be holding up much better and rebar and other bar products and for sheet, can you comment a bit more about what you see is driving this relative outperformance for long products, how sustainable that is going into 2020? You already commented a bit on the demand side but from a broader supply demand perspective? And then separately, as you are nearing or beginning to ramp up two new rebar micro mills, what's your thought on this pie demand balance within the region right now? There been some news in recent weeks that one of your competitors is shutting down one of their domestic rebar EAF. Do you think that the market can stomach increased capacity or will other higher cost mills be pushed out in the coming year? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Well, let me start with your first question talking about our long products and the metal margins performing better than some of our other flat rolled products. So, clearly the demand in our long products is better. There was a less of a destocking issue with our long products particularly when you talk about rebar, we have less of an issue with rebar than we did in our sheet products or on our plate products, a little bit more on merchant, but not significantly more. So demand was strong, inventories had loaded to the level that data in on flat products last year. And a lot of our loan products obviously go into construction and construction has been relatively strong. A lot of our long products merchant and rebar go into our downstream businesses. As Jim mentioned in his comments internally, we're shipping about 20% of our steel products downstream a lot of that is long products going into our building systems in particular Vulcraft in Harris [ph] operations and they have been strong. So all of those kind of lead into that. Now having said all of that, when we talk about long products and talking about structural, certainly, an infrastructure build will continue to help with us with that. We continue to encourage the administration to get going on something that badly needed in this country, they will infrastructure bill. So, that's a little bit about the long products. Now in terms of the -- your comment or your question about on micro mills regionally and the demand or the supply-demand ratio in the areas where we're building, we still feel very good about that. We've talked about in the past about the regional nature of these micro mills. We're not going to comment on any of our competitors shutting down or anything like that. We believe that the two things that are going to really give us an advantage with the micro mills are we're right in the heart of the marketplace. We've got great scrap availability for those mills. The design of the mills provide for extremely low cost structure, highly efficient close to the supply of the raw material and close to the marketplace. Those are things that we feel will make this very successful. Dave, you want to add something?
David Sumoski:
Yeah. If we would comment on some of the competition shedding down, we would correct you, it's an MBQ product that's exiting the market, not the rebar.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
John Ferriola:
Yes. Thank you.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Timna Tanners:
I think this may be John's last conference call, so I want to wish you well on your next chapter and thanks for all your candor over the years. We appreciate it.
John Ferriola:
Thank you, Timna.
Timna Tanners:
Yes, sir. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the CapEx change, because even up until last conference call, you're just saying it would be heavily weighted in the second half. So something changed and I know you say it's timing, but does this mean that you're pushing more CapEx into next year? Can you give us a little more thoughts into next year and if conditions remained somewhat sluggish, could you rethink some of the CapEx and the projects? Thanks.
James Frias:
Yes. So we rely a lot on the divisions to help us forecast when CapEx is going to happen and there's a lot of variables go into spending money and capital project begins with permitting, there's an engineering design process, there is a quotation process, there is lead times and getting equipment delivered and there's installation until products are in weather effects thing. So until things are delivered, whether it's a service or product to the site, we can't actually count it as CapEx and pay for it. So some things happen behind what we hope to accomplish this year, but by and large, we still expect it to days we've committed to in terms of start with facilities. We're probably a little bit more concerned that our commitment for start-up dates than we are on the CapEx spending side. And yes, we will spend some money that we plan to spend this year, next year. So in January, we'll come out and give you a budget for 2020. But, I would expect it to be notably higher than what we're actually going to spend in 2019, partly because of the carryover from 2019.
John Ferriola:
Timna, I do want to make a comment about the second part of that question, I want to be really empathic about this, okay? Listen, we're not reacting to any changes in the market. We're in a cyclical business. We don't react. We don't change on our strategic plan based upon changes in the marketplace. In fact, if anything, we would just the opposite of what you say, we tend to invest more and will focus on growing our company during the downturns, that's always been our philosophy. We invest in the downturns, to come back into the upturn stronger when talk about having higher-highs and higher-lows. So I want to be really clear about this, there has nothing to do with the change in the market dynamics at this time. We don't react. Our strategic plan is built for the long-term. We don't react. Short-term changes in the market do not impact our strategic initiatives.
James Frias:
John, I agree with everything and the other thing I'd add, Timna just very briefly is, we understand our markets and where we serve them we listen to our customers and where they need us to be not just today, but for the long-term to provide a competitive differentiated value proposition and that's really where our investments and so to John's point if we got [indiscernible] by every shift in the market, I'm not sure, would be the industry leader in the steel making industry in North America than we are today.
John Ferriola:
And just build on that for a minute, Timna, but certainly if we didn't invest and grow our company during the last recession, we would not have seen the record year that we had in 2018. So it's the work that we do during those downturns that allow us to have the record years and we'll continue to do that.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Fair enough. I guess I struck a chord. But so not taking your strategic view. So you don't change your strategic view given market conditions, but just commercially and just looking at volumes, I'm still kind of in shock when I look at the year-over-year trends, if we kind of continue the recent volume trends in long products, and across the board, I mean, volumes are pretty significantly down. Just wondering, seasonally things improve, I get it, but even on an annualized basis, is there anything you can help us high level to understand that could explain reasons for a shift upward in bar structural plate just because it has been such a dramatic drop from 2018 and even from 2017, to be fair? So just wondering if there is a commercial shift you've made to maybe shift-less in a soft market, is there a reason that these volume I can rebound or how do we think about it?
John Ferriola:
No, it has not. We made no commercial decision to change our sales or shipping strategy based upon the conditions in the market breaks, none at all. I want to be clear about that. We've talked a lot about the stocking and destocking that we've gone through and most of our discussions have focused on the service center industry. But bear in mind that across all of our products, we saw this issue of overstocking at the end of 2018, also in the downstream businesses, the downstream customers, you talk about on some of the flat products and on the plate products, some of our large equipment manufacturing customers, I don't want to name any of them specifically, but we know for a fact that their inventories are up, their inventories are up at their plant sites and the dealers and even in some absolutely storage location. So it's primarily - we still feel very strongly, primarily an issue of stocking and destocking. We think that if you look at pure demand, we think demand is solid and they would have down by about 3% or 4%. Certainly, the volumes have not reflect that. They are more significant in that. So, we still believe strongly that was looking at an issue of stocking and destocking that we continue to work our way through, we will come through this and we'll get back to more normalized inventory levels and more normalized booking and shipping levels.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Hey. Good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. I was just wondering if you can hear me, okay. In terms of the rebar investment at Marion, I think Leon was discussing that, I know it was an upgrade specifically to your rolling mill, curious if that impeded in your productivity or output at that mill all those upgrades are taking place?
John Ferriola:
Let me kick it off and I'll turn it over to Dave or to Leon to add to it, but the short answer is no, okay. The team has done an outstanding job of making the modifications to improve our quality and our efficiency and productivity at those mills, while at the same time continuing to provide quality products to our customers. The other point that I would like to make again thanking the team, we had a great safety record during this rebuild and whenever you're modifying an existing mill and continuing to run that mill, while you're making those improvements to it, it can be challenging from a safety perspective. The team did an outstanding job on getting the project done on-time, on-budget and most importantly, without any major accidents. So, I thank you for that. Anything that you want to add, Dave?
David Sumoski:
I just want to add on top of that, thanks to the team at Marion for the outage that they did safely, 30-day outage and we did not disrupt anything from a customer standpoint, and you guys did it safely. So, thank you and I appreciate that.
Phil Gibbs:
Great. I appreciate that and a question more on the raw material segment. A lot of headwinds right now, they seem to be numerous, curious in your mind, which out of these headwinds that you're seeing right now are transitory and maybe which are structural. We certainly didn't expect to see the results as negative as they were in the third quarter and getting more negative. And then just as a sub-question, I wonder the DRI investments that you're making come to a conclusion and then maybe remind us of the magnitude of those investments?
John Ferriola:
So a bunch of questions there. Okay. Let me start with the end and I'll work my way backwards the projects that our Louisiana plan, we will wrap up -- scheduled to wrap up on November 14. And we look like at this point, we believe we are on time. We believe we are on schedule and, excuse me, on budget. So things are looking pretty good at Louisiana. Just as a reminder, there was two major things that we're attacking three to altogether with two major ones. One is in the handling out, how we manage the feeding of the raw materials storage and feeding into the furnace and that's gone particularly well. We think that's going to have a major impact on the productivity of that operation and we also -- we placed the aligning in the vessel. And as you might recall, we had met numerous major problems with the process gas heater and of course, we have basically replacing the entire process gas heater with a design that we have a great deal of confidence in. All of these changes would not to increase the productivity, reduce our cost in that operation, it's called Project 8,000 for a reason. The reason being that we wanted to be able to get up to 8,000 hours of operation. We believe that we'll be able to accomplish that next year, if we do and let me rephrase that, when we do, we will have the result of about 2.2 metric tons production -- 2.2 million metric tons out of that operation, which would put it in terms of hours of operation on par with Trinidad facility, which did just under 8,000 hours of operation last year. So, I don't remember what was the total cost of the project that was combined…
David Sumoski:
It was roughly $200 million.
John Ferriola:
Roughly $200 million.
David Sumoski:
And I guess the other question, Phil, you asked was with regard to the timing of these projects. The two main projects right now, the refractory and the PGA changes will be done in the next three weeks as we come up mid-November. And then the ore yard will be finalized middle of next year.
James Frias:
Phil, some comments on your questions on the timing of these things in terms of what's temporary, what's permanent. Obviously, we're going to get a cost benefit from these investments, we're taking a cost penalty in pre-operating startup costs in the third quarter related to these investments and that will be done after the fourth quarter. But the part we are - margins are compressed in both the DRI business and in the scrap business that's part of the cycle of the business when prices are low for iron -- for pig iron, we have to sell DRI to ourselves at a low price and if iron ore prices don't go down enough, it puts a squeeze in our margins. So that's a cyclical business, like all of our businesses, and right now, it feels like it set a bottom of the cycle and they need to get better.
John Ferriola:
And remember, it’s kind of a hedge. This is kind of a good news/bad news thing when we talk about our raw material business struggling. What it means is, as Jim pointed out, it means that scrap is at a low level, pig iron is at a low level and we consume a tremendous amount of scrap and a tremendous amount of pig iron. So it's a good news/bad news situation, it's kind of when we built this, we talked about it being a hedging operation and build particularly to put -- to kind of help put a cap on the upward movement of scrap, particularly prime scrap during really good markets and we saw that happen in 2018 and accomplished what it was meant to accomplish in 2018.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
And it appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. John, I would like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Thank you, Kathy. Before we end today's call, I'd like to take a few moments to thank you for your interest in our company. For the past seven years as CEO, I have truly enjoyed participating in these calls and I always enjoy talking about Nucor's successes. It's been a pleasure to have you all as an audience. Thank you. I also want to offer my appreciation to our investors for entrusting Nucor with your valuable capital and to our customers for entrusting us with your business. We truly appreciate the business you give to us. It's been a pleasure to work together with my team mates to serve all of you during my three decades with Nucor. And speaking of my team mates, I always give, I often give the following advice, successful people surround themselves with great teams. If you want to be successful, you need to have the right people in the right positions on your team. I have been fortunate to always have the right people around me at Nucor, including the team on this call today. A strong leadership team we have built over the last decade, we will ensure that we have a deep bench of talent to draw upon for years to come. They have worked with me to achieve a number of accomplishments, which I am very proud of, a strong record of safety; the rollout of digital tools to better connect with; and serve our customers; the execution on our five drivers of profitable growth, including our greater penetration of the automotive market, while significantly expanded channels to market and our new rebar micro mills, as well as Nucor's evolution into a company that is more intensely focused on commercial excellence and building powerful strategic partnerships with our customers. I want to thank all of our Nucor team mates for the hard work that they have done during my tenure to achieve these successes and for the hard work that I know they will continue to do each and every day into the future to build a safer and more profitable Nucor. 2020 is going to be another exciting year for our company. When we asked Leon to join the executive team, I knew Nucor is bringing a strong leader to Charlotte. I have known Leon for years and I've been proud to call him a team mate. I’ve watched how he has met the challenges head on, preparing him for the role into which he now steps. And let me tell you something, I know that Leon and the great team around him will ensure that Nucor continues to be an industry leader well into the future. I'm excited to see where Leon and the team takes our company next. At Nucor, we believe that we are never as good today as we are going to be tomorrow. There is always an opportunity to be better. I leave you all in a very capable hands. We are confident than ever that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you again for what you do for Nucor every day and to my team mates, thank you again, particularly for doing it safely. Please never forget, there is nothing more important than safety, absolutely nothing. Thank you for your interest in our company. Have a great day.
Operator:
And that concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our second quarter earnings call and for your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also on the call today, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; MaryEmily Slate, responsible for Tubular Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. My remarks will be brief this afternoon as we covered a lot of this material at our recent Investor Day event. Thank you to everyone who participated, either in person or via the webcast. And for those who could not join us, a recording of the event and the slide presentation are available at nucor.com. Before we discuss our second quarter earnings, I would like to thank our teammates for continued excellent safety performance. Safety is the number one priority for everyone on the Nucor team and we continue to work to improve at it, identifying and mitigating risks and changing behaviors to achieve our goal of zero incidents at every Nucor facility. Turning now to our performance in this quarter. Our financial results were lower than our expectations at the start of the quarter. Unusually wet weather and aggressive supply chain destocking impacted mill order rates in the first half of 2019. We have seen lower volumes during the first half of this year resulting in a more challenging price environment. However, real demand for our products remains strong in key end-use markets. We see healthy conditions in end-use markets that typically account for more than two thirds of our steel shipments. For this reason, we are cautiously optimistic that pricing has bottomed on most of our products and that volumes should be more closely aligned with real end-use demand in the second half of the year. We all know that the steel industry is cyclical and we have built our business model around that reality with our low and highly variable cost structure and our diversified product portfolio. Our performance in the first half of the year, benefited from meaningful year-over-year earnings gains in our Plate, MBQ, Rebar, Joist and Deck, Metal Buildings and Pilings Distribution businesses once again highlighting the benefits of our diversified product mix. Our strategy to increase market share in automotive applications also continues to bear fruit. We are currently shipping into this market at an annual rate of about 1.6 million tons. Further, we were recently named Supplier of the Year by General Motors. We are the first EAF-based steel producer to receive this recognition. It's a tremendous testament to our team and further evidence of our success, moving up the value chain and gaining market share in many value added applications. As we have previously discussed, we have several investment projects coming online this year, and I want to update you on this status. In our Sheet Group, we continue to ramp-up production of our new specialty cold mill at Nucor Steel Arkansas and we have been pleased with the performance. This project will allow us to produce higher valued products, especially in high-strength steels and it will differentiate Nucor Steel Arkansas from its competitors. We are currently in trials for value-added applications and customer acceptance has been excellent to this point. We are targeting to have as much as 20% of the new mills capacity, booked with contract customers by the year-end. We expect to continue adding contract volumes at the mill as 2020 progresses. In Kentucky, Nucor Steel Gallatin has begun commissioning its new galvanizing line and test running coils to verify the functionality of the line. Production of pickled and oiled coils has started this month and will be followed by production of galvanized coils in August. With 500,000 tons of annual capacity, this 72-inch galvanizing line will be the widest hot-rolled galvanizing facility in North America. Gallatin is now positioned to supply the underserved Midwest heavy-gauge hot band galvanized market. The new line will enable us to grow our automotive applications to include frames, control arms, supports, and brackets. Our commercial teams are excited to have these new capabilities in our Sheet Mill Group to serve both new and existing customers. The last project in our Sheet Mill Group, I would like to mention is our joint venture with JFE Steel in Mexico. We are on track for startup of the galvanizing line later this year and we look forward to serving automotive customers in Mexico. In the Bar Mill Group, our Marion, Ohio bar mills new inline rolling mill is starting up in the third quarter. Marion's new reheat furnace, which we installed last year, is reducing our natural gas consumption by about one-fourth. In late 2019 or early 2020, Marion will also install quench and temper equipment to reduce alloy costs at the melt shop. The upgrades significantly improved Marion's efficiency and strengthens its leadership position in the regional rebar market. Two other projects in our Long Products Group are on track for startups later this year. The merchant bar product expansion at our mill in Illinois, and the first of our new rebar micro mills, which is located in Sedalia, Missouri. In all, we have 10 significant organic investments in various stages of development, representing a total capital investment of approximately $3.5 billion that will deliver long-term profitable growth to our shareholders. As I have made clear on several occasions, we are not simply adding tons to get bigger. These projects target defined market objectives and opportunities to generate higher profits and reduced volatility through the cycle. They also expand our product portfolio, so that we will be able to offer our customers more solutions to meet their toughest challenges. The U.S. steel industry continues to benefit from effective trade enforcement through May of 2019 total and finished steel imports declined by 12% and 18% from last year's levels. In the last 12 months, approximately 6 million fewer tons of imported steel have come into the U.S. market. The decrease in imports reflects the cost competitiveness of our domestic steel industry and the success of our industries ongoing efforts to see that the rules of trade are enforced. Recent findings by the U.S. Department of Commerce provide further evidence that our industry, our government, and our customers understand the importance of acting to keep on fairly traded steel and steel products from distorting the U.S. market. On July 2, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued its Preliminary Circumvention Determination on imports of galvanized and cold-rolled sheet steel from Vietnam manufactured with hot-rolled or cold-rolled substrate from South Korea and Taiwan. Commerce found that the steel went through minor modifications in Vietnam to avoid appropriate restrictions that have been imposed on imports from South Korea and Taiwan. The imports of these products from Vietnam must now pay duties of more than 400%. It is vitally important that our government stopped these and similar illegal transshipments meant to avoid trade duties, and we are glad that they have taken such a strong action. On July 8, the U.S. Department of Commerce also issued a Preliminary Countervailing Duty Determination on imports of fabricated structural steel from China and Mexico, and duties have been applied to imports from both countries. This ruling shows that the government is not only concerned about unfair trade practices in raw steel, but also in downstream products. Rules-based trade is a critical underpinning to the continued success of our customers, Nucor and the U.S. economy, and we are pleased that the Department of Commerce continues to take action on individual trade cases. Jim Frias will now provide more specific detail about our second quarter performance as well as our outlook for the remainder of this year. Jim?
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Nucor reported second quarter of 2019 earnings of $1.26 per diluted share. Earnings from our Steel Mills segment were lower due primarily to reduced shipments to our service center customers, reflecting their caution with respect to inventory levels and order rates in a weakening price environment. Earnings from our Steel Products segment improved in the second quarter in line with our expectations. Strong non-residential construction markets, along with increased productivity from our rebar fabrication and metal buildings businesses were the primary factors. Results from our Raw Materials segment were slightly better than we anticipated. It is worth noting that our second quarter results included $20.5 million of pre-operating and start-up costs related to strategic investment projects, compared with $19.6 million in the first quarter of 2019 and approximately $6 million in the year-ago quarter. First half 2019 cash provided from operations was approximately $1.2 billion, up from about $870 million for the year-ago period. Inventories and receivables were a source of approximately $400 million in the first half, reflecting consistent working capital management in a declining price environment. Our capital spending accelerated in the second quarter and totaled $650 million so far this year. We have received our permits for the Gallatin expansion, so between that and other projects that we have in our pipeline, we expect to increase CapEx further in the second half and approach our budgeted amount of approximately $1.8 billion for the full-year. With respect to cash return to shareholders during the second quarter, we paid dividends of $123 million and stock repurchases totaled $125 million. Thus far, in 2019, we returned 50% of our net income to our shareholders, while also investing for long-term profitable growth. We ended the quarter with $1.4 billion of cash on hand. Nucor's financial condition remains strong with total debt outstanding of $4.2 billion. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 28% at the end of the second quarter. Our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility remains undrawn and does not mature until April of 2023. Our next material debt maturity is in 2022 for approximately $600 million. Now turning to the outlook. Earnings in the third quarter of 2019 are expected to be lower than the second quarter. Inventory destocking, especially by service center customers has led to declining results year-to-date and our muted expectations for the next quarter. While we are encouraged by recent upturns in the prices for flat-rolled steel products, and as John mentioned, we do continue to see healthy demand for our major end-use markets. We finished the second quarter with much lower margins in sheet and plate steel and believe that margin recovery could take some time. We therefore, expect weaker linked quarter performance in the Steel Mills segment again, primarily reflecting reduced margins for both sheet and plate steel. However, we do expect that service center customers will resume more normal buying patterns in the third quarter. The Steel Products segment is expected to achieve further profitability improvement in the third quarter over the second quarter. Non-residential construction activity remains strong and we believe some incremental demand has likely shifted to later in the year due to difficult weather conditions during the first several months of 2019. Recent initiatives to improve the performance of our rebar fabrication and metal buildings businesses are also expected to continue to favorably impact results for the Steel Products segment. The performance of our Raw Materials segment is expected to decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, due to further margin pressure at our direct reduced iron or DRI plants. In addition, later this quarter, we will begin our plan 65-day outage at Nucor Steel Louisiana to complete major enhancements to the physical plant. Thank you for your interest in our Company. I will now turn the call back over to John.
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Before we take your questions, I would like to acknowledge a significant milestone that Nucor teammates at our Darlington, South Carolina bar mill recently celebrated. As many of you know, Darlington is the first steel mill Nucor built. Back in the mid-1960s, our founder Ken Iverson decided that Nucor needed to be able to supply its own steel for its joist operations in Florence, South Carolina. Nucor selected EAF Technology for Darlington and took the first step in leading the transformation of the domestic steel industry that has occurred over the past 50 years. We celebrated this 50-year run at Darlington on June 26. Darlington continues to be a strong contributor to Nucor’s profitability and a valued member of its community. We look forward to another 50 years of success at Darlington. In closing, I would like to say thank you to our more than 26,000 teammates for the way you execute our strategy, and thank you for the work that you do every day to build a safer and more profitable Nucor. I would also like to say thank you to our customers. We appreciate the trust you place in Nucor and we will continue to do our very best to earn it with every order. And finally, thank you to our investors for entrusting us with your valuable capital. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Martin Englert with Jefferies.
Martin Englert:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Martin Englert:
Within the raw materials, you pointed towards the lower sequential results into 3Q and further margin compression in DRI. Do you expect the overall segment to remain profitable and could you also talk about your material sourcing strategy given the upcoming, I think, you said it was a 65-day outage, correct?
James Frias:
We don't disclose specifically which business units are going to be profitable, but overall we expect the Raw Material segment to be profitable. And John, do you want to talk about…
John Ferriola:
I'll address some of the other issues. You mentioned about sourcing. We have several sources. You know, that there's some challenges in the iron ore marketplace right now, but we have solid secured deliveries coming in. We're not worried about that. Pricing is a bit of a challenge right now because of some of the things that are going on, but we feel good about the rest of it being able to get what we need and when we need it.
James Frias:
I think the sourcing question is about us getting something to replace the DRI for our melt shops.
John Ferriola:
Is that what you're looking for Martin?
Martin Englert:
Yes. More along the lines. While you have this outage of even pre-building any DRI pellet inventory or you importing any prime scrap, I guess. So what's the strategy there?
John Ferriola:
We've built some inventory, but you know, we have – one of the great things about our raw material strategy overall is the flexibility of it. And we have the DJ Joseph team that's been able to go frankly, globally to secure any scrap that we need, you know prime or obsolete. We have great sources of HPI that we can bring in, again from David J. Joseph, and we have great sources of pig iron that we can bring in. So we are not at all concerned about being able to get the virgin iron units that we need to maintain, producing the ultra-high-strength steels during this period of outage from the DRI plants.
Martin Englert:
Okay, excellent. Thanks for the color there. And if I could one other quick follow-up. There have been several recent flat-rolled price increases introduced. Can you discuss how that's been received by the market and any change in the order book since that was introduced?
John Ferriola:
Well, there's been two that have been introduced. The first one was maybe was three weeks ago – three weeks ago and we were able – it's $40 and we were able to get all $40 of that $40. The second one was just about a week ago, and it's really too early to tell too much about how much we'll get of that $40, but the initial week looks encouraging. We're also encouraged by the fact that as a result of these increases, we've seen an increase in the volume of our orders coming in, also for all three of our hot band cold-rolled and galvanized products.
Martin Englert:
Okay, very encouraging. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. Hey, good afternoon, everyone.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Timna Tanners:
So I wanted to ask about some of the capacity coming on in 2020 is replacing some of the domestic supplies, specifically if you look at U.S. Steel Fairfield mill and if you look at JSW's Baytown plate mill. Now I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts about how that can affect the market and if Nucor is a supplier on any of those – to any of those mills on raw materials or semi-finished product.
John Ferriola:
Okay. Let's start with the semi-finished product since you asked that question about JSW coming online and U.S. Steel. We have been supplying both of those companies, but as a result of that, we've built a pretty good product line of round billets and blooms that we can sell to the entire market, and we recognize that at least at this point in time, we're being told that we will lose that business in the next couple of years. We have been building a customer base outside of those two and we've been securing contracts with other customers. So we're confident that we'll be able to replace the tons from U.S. Steel and from JSW with other customers as they pull their business away from us.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, that's helpful. Go ahead.
John Ferriola:
Go ahead, I’m done.
Timna Tanners:
All right. So the second question I had was regarding the steel downstream business, so steel products. You succeeded in having improved profitability there as you had anticipated quarter-over-quarter, but when I look year-over-year, it's still below last year's levels, and I'm just confused as to how to think about that. The rule of thumb I had in mind was that when you have rising steel prices, generally steel products lag, but in a declining steel price environment, one would think that margins can maybe be higher year-over-year. So maybe if you could correct me if I'm wrong about that or how to think about what the right normal profitability is or how to think about what that trend can be going forward?
John Ferriola:
When you look at the total downstream, I'm assuming, you're including tube in that generalization, correct?
James Frias:
Yes.
Timna Tanners:
Yes. I'm just looking EBIT per ton of the segment..
John Ferriola:
Yes. So when you look at tube, that's really been what's pulling down the downstream business. The tubular business right now - our tubular business right now is suffering from some of the same things that we've seen on the steel side, bloated inventories in the service centers have resulted in lower orders that, of course, drives the price down, that of course drives margins down. So this is in our opinion, this is a result of a too high of an inventory build during last year and the aggressive destocking that you see not only in our steel products, but also in tubes. So that's probably the biggest impact on our downstream business not doing as well as we anticipated and not doing as well as we did last year.
Timna Tanners:
So potential for that to still normalize once inventory levels normalize in those end markets. Is that what we should think about or any way to think conceptually about what that looks like normally?
John Ferriola:
Yes, I think that, you know, if this is a question of what's really driving the volume reductions in tubular and in our steel. Overall, we believe that the issue is too much inventory in the system that has to work its way through and that at the time that it goes through. You have to remember when you talk about tubular, 80% of the tubular was sold through service centers. So this really impacts – this issue of inventory, really impacts the tubular business, but it's also true of our steel business as we've talked about many times in the past. Inventories do not necessarily – service center shipments do not necessarily indicate what's happening with true end-use demand. We believe that end-use demand is still very strong and we see that in our order entry rate for OEMs versus our order entry rate for service centers. When you look at our order entry rates for OEMs, we're actually up in the first half by about 4% compared to the three-year average, whereas if you look at order entry for service centers we’re down 14% compared to the three-year average. So that's a pretty good indicator to us that end demand is still pretty strong. Of course, we talk to our customers who are basically telling us the same thing and I'm speaking in general now both of steel and our tubular products also.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Christopher Terry:
Hi, John and Jim. Couple of questions from me. Just in terms of the volume, you mentioned that second half volume should be more in line with real demand. Have you seen any marked pickup, I guess, in July in the service center [borrowing] [ph], and how do we think about maybe second half on first half of this year, maybe second half on the second half of last year? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'll start with just general comments, and Jim you can comment on the year-over-year performance and half-over-half performance. I mentioned earlier that after the first $40 a ton increase in sheet price, we did see a pickup in our order for our sheet products and that came for both OEM customers, but also from our service centers. When we meet with our service centers, we talk about what they will think is going to happen in the second half, they feel that the demand, end demand for their products will be steady and still strong. They talk about the need for making sure that they get their inventories completely now, which is what they're striving to accomplish. But one of the things that we're seeing also that should be a good indicator of moving in and it's early in the game. So I don't want to be too overconfident here, but we are cautiously optimistic and we hit the bottom on pricing and on volumes. We see our lead times are beginning to stretch out a little bit. Whenever that starts to happen that encourages the service centers to come back into the market. Now with the OEMs, it's more of a steady state situation. So after the $40 a ton increase, we believe that that represented the bottom of the market service centers. Whenever you see pricing start to go up, they come back into the market. So we think that that bodes well for the second half of the year and we'll see how it plays out.
James Frias:
And relative to your question about the second half of this year versus last year, obviously we don't give guidance for the half year. We're saying third quarter can be down because of where margins are at having bottomed recently and what we see going forward. But from a volume perspective, we certainly saw destocking began in the second half of last year and then carry into 2019. And there'll always be a seasonal slowdown in the fourth quarter, but we would expect right now and this is a long short guess that volumes in the fourth quarter of this year should be better than last year because we don't expect to see the destocking component in the fourth quarter, we'll just see the normal seasonal slowdown that we would expect.
John Ferriola:
I think if I can just build on that a minute, because I think it's important to think about what took place in 2018 as it related to the 232 and everything that was going on. First of all, if you go all the way back to 2017, with tax reform and deregulation, that was really a shot in the arm of manufacturing. And frankly, the order entry rate picked up, demand for steel picked up, and it was growing all through 2017, towards the end of 2017, but particularly in the beginning of 2018, a lot of our customers were reading about the fact that when the tariffs came into effect, they would not be able to get the steel that they needed to fill their customers orders. That created somewhat of a panic of both with our OEM and with our service center customers. They were convinced that the domestic capacity would not be enough to supply all the needs that they had to keep their customers happy. But as it played out, 232 came into effect. The imports did go down and domestic capacity was enabled, was, in fact, able to start up again and fill the need. But during that time when they were afraid of getting not being able get the steel, they put their inventories to very high levels, and of course, domestic capacity came on, everything settled down, the order rate and pricing returned to more normalized levels, but they maintained this high inventory. At the end of the year, they want to get rid of that overblown inventory, they began to aggressively destock. So what happens then, okay, they destock – the volumes coming into the mills, go down. Pricing results, as a result, goes down. And the next thing you know, we get into this spiral of – in fact, the aggressive destocking was so intense that was the end of last year and into the first half of this year where service center is selling to other service centers. So it became a very difficult situation and as always happens in our business, we always do things. Now we think that we're getting to the point where the inventories are down to the normal levels and we expect to see more normalized ordering rates in the next quarter.
Christopher Terry:
Thank you. Thanks for the color. Just one quick follow-up. In terms of the end markets, you talked about the two-thirds that you’re cautiously optimistic around, the other third I assume that is that related to orders or what is that market or which markets are those specifically that you're still working out? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
We think that automotive is going to be down about 2%, so that's one of the markets that we would say is weakening as we go into the second half of 2019. That said, our market share within automotive continues to grow. So there'll be a small pie and we'll have a larger piece of that smaller pie. So the impact will be less felt by Nucor and others in our space. Another one that I remember being looking from a chart that was down would be power transmission. There was a whole bunch of power transmission projects that were wrapped up at the end of 2018. So power transmission is an industry that we expect to be down also. Agriculture will be down a little bit as we see it going forward into this second half of this year also.
Christopher Terry:
Thank you.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Matt Korn with Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Korn:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. So early this week, the White House announced some revisions to these Buy American requirements. I was wondering how much if any potential incremental effect do you see from these changes? I ask because our understanding had been that many of these public projects already had very high thresholds from melt and import U.S. Steel, but the administration appears to believe that there were loopholes that limited the effectiveness of those rules. I'm wondering what your view is?
John Ferriola:
Well, there was some loopholes and there we're pleased to see those loopholes being closed. And you're right, a lot of the regulations already were in place that it was a Buy American and we want to make sure we did stress the point that this was Buy American meant, melted, poured and rolled in the United States. So we took a little bit on a loophole away from that was existing. So in general, we'll see some impact. We do supply to the militaries, particularly out of our plate group and out of our SBQ group. So it's a positive impact to us but it is not a major impact.
Matthew Korn:
Got it. Thanks. And then to continue as you kind of go around the product groups here, there's been a lot of focus on hot-rolled coils, some focus on downstream, what's happening in the plate market in your view? Your volumes are off, prices they're off, they have dropped to the 7.50 level. Is that two way function pronounced destocking or is there true demand challenges occurring for that particular product?
John Ferriola:
There's two impact that have occurred there on plate. First of all, you need to think about the weather conditions that we endured during the first half of this year, particularly in the first quarter. A lot of plate products go into bridges and so forth. Projects that you have to have good weather and wanted to be able to see, so there's a lot of projects that are on the books, but we haven't been able to move forward with them, simply because of the extreme weather conditions. The other impact is, as you mentioned, aggressive destocking. Just as we said with the – products earlier with tubular and with sheet products, the same occurred with plates. Inventory levels got way too high at the end of 2018 and we began the destocking program, and a little bit of a time delay on that one simply because of plate tends to trail hot band by about two months, three months in terms of both volumes and pricing. So it's a little bit of a time delay, but basically the same scenario played out in plate that we described earlier.
Matthew Korn:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
Hey, good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Philip Gibbs:
I was reading last night that one of your mill competitors in the North American sheet market, Arcelor, has formally asked its U.S. mill suppliers for concessions and price cuts. Question is, are you either seeking pricing concessions from your mills suppliers or seeing any softness in inputs like electrodes and refractory, alloys or mill services?
John Ferriola:
Well, electrodes we can talk about in a minute, because that's a more specific issue, and we do see actually price going down in electrodes a little bit of about 7% this year over last year. But that's a very specific issue. There was a run up in electrodes over the last couple of years that was unsustainable and we're seeing it start to work its way down. But in general, I respond to your question, first of all, Nucor is a high integrity company. We honor all the contracts that we have and we will not go out and demand any price reductions on contracts that we have signed and the firm numbers are in place. That said, if our suppliers do in fact offer our competitors better pricing, we will go and talk to them about that, we will not demand it, but what we might find is largest steel producer in the United States, we buy a whole lot more of everything than anyone else. And if they treat us any differently than our competition, we'll remember that when those contracts that we have come to an end and we talk about who we do business with in 2020. Does that answer your question?
Philip Gibbs:
Yes, absolutely. And in terms of some of the stuff that was more the other things that were impacted by, I think, the China supply side issues like refractories and alloys, what are you seeing there?
John Ferriola:
Refractories, they're still pretty high. We haven't seen much of a reduction in that. Our alloys are still running pretty high, not quite up to the 2018 levels because just like everything else with steel, less steel that we're producing, the less alloys need unless refractory needs to be replaced. So the volumes go down and pricing comes down a little bit, that's more volume related than anything else.
Philip Gibbs:
And John, I think at your Investor Day, you talked about 17 growing markets and 7 were either flat or declining. Is that mix still the same now or has it changed?
John Ferriola:
It's pretty much the same.
Philip Gibbs:
And if I could sneak in one more…
John Ferriola:
Okay, one more.
Philip Gibbs:
Just in term – it should be a short one. Just in terms of your outlook for scrap in August? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'll speak to – how about if I speak to the outlook for scrap over the entire third quarter, because it's pretty tough to get definitive into one given month, because we see the third quarter scrap pricing, we see it up $20 to $30 somewhere in that neighborhood and we don't think it's going to describe walkout out of control but we do think over the quarter would be a $20 to $30. We think that a pig iron will probably up somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 to $15. We're seeing some of that price reflected in the latest offers that we're getting. So $20 to $30 for scrap and somewhere maybe $10 to $15 on pig iron.
Philip Gibbs:
Thanks so much.
Operator:
And next we'll go to David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. A lot of them have already been answered. I just have two follow-up for clarifications. First of all, on the volumes for the third quarter, I'm still a little confused. Do you expect volumes overall in the third quarter to be up or down sequentially?
John Ferriola:
It's hard to project. Right now, as we mentioned a couple of times, we're in a transition. We're in the cusp of the transition from a situation of severe to down destocking to more normalized order entry rate from our service centers. Not being a service center ourselves, we don't know just exactly where those inventories are. Rather than say, we know exactly what's going to happen with volumes going into the third quarter, I would say that we're going to transition, how quickly it ramps back up will determine how our third quarter volumes look relative to our second quarter. I think the important point to remember is this. We are seeing the transition and it's going back up. We see lead times expanding, and really important point here that allows me to sleep easily at night is that our end demand is still very strong and user demand remains very strong. If we didn't see that through our OEM customers, I'd be a whole lot more worried about what the rest of the year was going to look like than I am right now.
David Gagliano:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just a follow-up. Flagged about $21 million, I think, start-up costs that were in the second quarter numbers. My question is what are the expectations moving forward for start-up costs?
James Frias:
We think it's going to be in the $25 million range in Q3.
David Gagliano:
And any big difference in Q4?
James Frias:
It's hard to say, probably not too much.
David Gagliano:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Thank you, David. I'll close by signing off by saying again, I want to express our appreciation to our shareholders. We value your contribution and capital investment in our Company and we will treat it with great care. I want to say thank you to our customers for building our capabilities to better serve you. We believe that together we can build powerful partnerships for powerful results. And finally to my Nucor teammates, thank you for what you're doing for Nucor every day. Most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And that concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2019 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although, Nucor believes we are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risk and uncertainties related to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us our first quarter earnings call and thank you for your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also on the call today including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Joe Stratman, our Chief Digital Officer; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. Lastly, Joe Stratman announced this plan to retire from Nucor on June 8th after more than 29 years of dedicated service to Nucor. Joe has been an exceptional and resourceful leader who has made outstanding contributions throughout this career with Nucor, which has included key roles in our steel, raw materials, and steel products businesses. Joe also served as our Executive Vice President of Business Development and most recently, as our Chief Digital Officer. Joe, thank you for your leadership, you have played a key role in positioning Nucor for continued success in the years to come. Speaking personally and on behalf of our 26,000 teammates, we want you to know that you will be missed and that we wish you and Jill the very best as you begin this new chapter in your life. Effective May 19th, Mary Emily Slate will be promoted to Executive Vice President and will assume responsibilities for the tubular products group, logistics and certainly joint ventures. Mary Emily is a dynamic leader with 19 years of experience at Nucor in senior sales and operational management roles. We look forward to her building on the success that Ladd Hall and his team have achieved in tubular products. Ladd Hall will continue to serve as Executive Vice President of Sheet products. Ray Napolitan will assume responsibility for Nucor's digital initiatives while also continuing in his role as EVP of Engineered Bar Products. Before we discuss our strong first quarter results, I want to emphasize that safety is number one priority for everyone on the Nucor team. While we consistently lead the industry in safety outcomes, our goal remains zero incidents at every Nucor facility. We will keep working to achieve this goal by continuously identifying and mitigating safety risks. That is the mindset that will drive our success. By working together, the Nucor way, I have no doubt that we can achieve our goal of zero incidents. And while I'm on the subject of safety, I would also like to congratulate and thank our teammates at Nucor Gallatin for being recognized as a VPP Star Site by Kentucky's Division of Education and Training. Nucor Gallatin is only the 13th site to be awarded this designation by the Commonwealth of Kentucky. For those of you who are not familiar, Kentucky's VPP or Voluntary Protection Partnership program is similar to the federal government's OSHA VPP program. These programs are the goal standard by implementing and maintaining safety and health management systems. To achieve VPP status, companies must meet rigorous qualifying criteria and undergo an extensive onsite evaluation. After a two year process, Gallatin is the 24th Nucor division to achieve this impressive recognition. Each of our VPP starred divisions must demonstrate continuous improvement and safety and health in order to maintain the designation going forward. Congratulations again to my teammates at Gallatin on this outstanding achievement and my continued thanks to all Nucor teammates who put safety first, every day. Let's continue to set the bar higher for all manufacturers and lead the way towards better safety outcomes for all. Moving on to our first quarter result, Nucor achieved significant year-over-year improvements in our first quarter earnings, again demonstrating the value of our position as North America's most diversified producer of steel and steel products. The steel making operations that contributed most significantly to the improvement over the prior year include our plate, rebar, merchant bar, engineered bar and beam mills. Several of our downstream businesses also achieved earnings gains compared to the first quarter of 2018 including our metal buildings, joist and deck products and piling products. Jim Frias will discuss these results and outlook in more detail shortly. There's been a lot of commentary about capacity expansion plans announced by the U.S. steel industry. While we will not speak to the plans of other participants in our industry, Nucor's long-term strategy for profitable growth is both disciplined and sustainable. Sustainability is achieved by making strategic investments that position Nucor to deliver a superior value proposition in cost, quality and service to our customers. Discipline is driven by Nucor's laser focus on being effective stewards of the capital that our shareholders entrust to us. We only deploy capital on growth projects when we identify high return opportunities that will create value for our shareholders. Importantly, our senior management incentive compensation plans are directly tied to Nucor's return on equity and return on capital performance, aligning pay with performance and value creation. We have announced 10 significant growth projects. We anticipate that six of these projects will begin operating this year including the new specialty cold rolling mill at Nucor Steel Arkansas, which came online during the first quarter. We expect all 10 of these projects to be in operation by 2022. These projects will create approximately a 1,500 direct jobs and we believe at least 7,500 indirect jobs. With respect to the six projects set to begin operations this year, three projects expand the value added capabilities of our flat rolled steel operations and the other three projects improve the competitive the position of our rebar and merchant bar long products businesses. Let me provide more detail about the new specialty cold rolling mill at Nucor Steel Arkansas and two others that will start up this summer. First, our new specialty cold rolling mill at Nucor Steel Arkansas had a successful startup in March. We have already delivered to customers prime product both pickled and oiled as well as fully processed cold-rolled product and production continues to ramp up. This flexible cold reduction mill expands our capability to produce motor lamination, high strength low alloy and advanced high-strength steel products. Congratulations to the entire Nucor Steel Arkansas team on a very successful startup. The second project Nucor Steel Marion's new in-line rolling mill is scheduled to start up in the third quarter. The newly installed reheat furnace is running well and delivering the anticipated reductions in energy use. These upgrades will significantly improve Marion's cost structure and position the mill as a leader in the regional rebar market that it serves. And third, we expect our sheet mill in Kentucky, Nucor Steel Gallatin to begin producing pickled and oiled coils in July and galvanized coils in August for mills new 72 inch galvanizing line will be the widest hot-rolled galvanizing facility in North America. It expands our capability to serve the automotive and other value-added markets. Three other projects our joint venture galvanizing line with JFE Steel in Mexico, the merchant bar mill expansion in Illinois and the new rebar micro mill in Missouri are all on track to start up later in 2019. I also should mention that we have recently received our permits and commenced construction on our Frostproof Florida rebar micro mill. We are targeting start up there in mid-2020. In March, we announced a plan to build a new state-of-the-art plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky. This is a strategic move to solidify Nucor's position as a leader in the U.S. plate market, not just in terms of volume, but also quality, reliability and cost. The new mill will give us the ability to produce 97% of the plate products consumed in the United States including specialty high-margin grades. Our site on the Ohio River is located in the center of the country's largest plate consuming market, strengthening our ability to serve our customers with lower freight costs and superior on-time delivery. Further, we will be in a region with abundance low cost graph that is well covered by our David J. Joseph scrap business. We are excited about this investment in our entire pipeline of value enhancing growth projects. Nucor has achieved success over the past five decades by building market leadership positions and we have done this by providing our customers with unmatched performance in quality, cost, product range and on time delivery. At Nucor, we build powerful partnerships that deliver powerful results. The more successful we can make our customers, the greatest success we will have as Nucor shareholders and teammates. Jim Frias will now provide more specific detail about our first quarter performance as well as our outlook for the remainder of this year. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks John. Nucor reported first quarter of 2019 earnings of $1.63 per diluted share. Included in these results was a benefit of $0.08 per diluted share related to the gain on the sale of an investment in our raw material segment. Excluding this non-recurring gain first quarter performance exceeded our guidance range of $1.45 to $1.50 per diluted share. As John discussed, Nucor continues to benefit from our diversified business model. Another key strength of Nucor's business model is strong through the cycle cash flow generation. First quarter 2019 cash provided from operations was $651 million, even after funding just over $300 million in profit sharing earned by Nucor's teammates in 2018. Inventory was a source of about $108 million in the quarter, even as net sales were approximately 10% higher year-on-year. Consistent with Nucor's disciplined approach to capital allocation, other major uses of cash during the quarter were capital expenditures of $289 million, dividends of $123 million and stock repurchases of $73 million. We returned almost 40% of net income for the quarter to our shareholders while also investing for long-term profitable growth. We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion in cash on hand. Nucor teammates are executing the current stages of our long-term growth strategy and we therefore expect to accelerate our capital spending as the year progresses. For the full year of 2019, we continue to estimate that our capital expenditures will total approximately $1.8 billion. Nucor's financial condition remained strong with total debt outstanding of $4.3 billion. Our gross debt to capital ratio was 29% at the end of the first quarter. Our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility remains undrawn and does not mature until April of 2023. It is worth noting that our first quarter results included $19.6 million of pre-operating start-up costs related to strategic investment projects. That is an increase from $17.4 million in the fourth quarter 2018 and $2.3 million in the year ago first quarter. Now turning to the outlook, we expect 2019 to be another robust earnings year for Nucor. We continue to be encouraged by the overall strength of our domestic and use markets. In fact, we see stable or improving demand in 21 of the 24 end-use markets we monitor. One market power transmission is seeing a meaningful decline due to the completion of major grid extension projects in 2018. Automotive OEMs and automotive suppliers comprise the other two markets that we expect to decline for the year. However, we anticipate that the decline in automotive unit volumes will be moderate and the new core will actually grow it shipments to these customers in 2019. Of course, the largest source of demand for our products are applications in non-residential construction, which appears set for another solid year in 2019. Earnings the second quarter of 2019 are expected to be similar to the first quarter excluding the gain on the sale of the investment. We expect similar linked quarter performance in the steel mill segment as improving margins for structural environmental products offset weakening margins in our sheet and plate mills. The steel products segment is expected to achieve significant improvement in the second quarter over the first quarter as typical seasonal patterns and improved weather conditions benefit construction activity. The performance of the raw material segment is expected to decline in the second quarter compared to the first quarter due to further margin pressure at our direct reduced iron or DRI plant. Thank you for your interest in our company. I will now turn the call back over to John.
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Before we take questions, I want to make a few remarks about trade. Nucor has long maintained and more importantly consistently demonstrated that when operating on a level playing field, we can successfully compete with any steel producer in the world. Free and fair trade is a critical underpinning to the continued success to both Nucor and our customers. While much of the focus has been on Section 232 steel tariffs, prosecuting trade cases remains vital to ensuring a level playing field. For that reason, Nucor applause the recent determination by the U.S. International Trade Commission that there is reasonable indication of material injury from imports of fabricated structural steel on China, Canada and Mexico that are subsidized and sold into the United States at less than fair value. More effective enforcement rules-based trade has made a significant contribution to improve performance of the U.S. economy in recent years, benefiting the steel industry and the entire domestic manufacturing sector. 2019 is going to be another exciting year for our company, as we continue to bring new projects online. We will continue to pursue profitable growth opportunities and we remain confident that Nucor's diversified business model will enable us to continue to outperform the industry over the course of the economic cycle. Thank you to our more than 26,000 teammates for the way you execute our strategy and thank you for the work that you do every day to build a safe and more profitable Nucor. I would also like to say thank you to our customers. We appreciate the trust you place in Nucor and we will continue to do our very best to earn it with every order. And finally, thank you to our investors for entrusting us with your valuable capital. We would now be happy to answer questions. Operator?
Operator:
[Operator instructions] And we'll take our first question today for Matthew Korn with Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Korn:
I've got two for you, one near-term and one a little bit longer term. First is on expectations next quarter, you mentioned thinning margins for sheet and plate and offset by better profitability in structure and rail, excuse me structural and bar. How should volumes across your platform look relative to last year across these different segments particularly as Mary is ramping up? And is there any patch-up potential of the weather delays seen against the first quarter? And then my second question is on what you just mentioned John that fabricated structural steel trade case. How do you think about the opportunity that that could bring to Nucor, how much do you sell right now in terms of tonnage and revenue today what that represents, and is that a market where you had been seeing increasing pressure from imports? Thanks a lot.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'll tackle the first question first and that's on volumes going into the second quarter. You know, we've mentioned that we see demand pretty consistent. In fact, maybe a little bit growing in -- on the sheet side, on the hot band side, when we look at our order entry over the last couple of weeks, marginal growth, small growth, but a good sign, so as we go into the second quarter, we expect the volumes to be about the same, particularly in those products that you mentioned. Our downstream businesses might see a little bit better volume based on the weather conditions that are improving. We had a long winter. We had a very wet spring. It seems to be correcting now. So, we might see a bit of a pickup in our downstream businesses, but overall, I think going into the second quarter, I would say, our volume are going to be pretty consistent. In terms of the second question, remember, first of all, that this is a preliminary position, so we don't have a final ruling on this yet, we are optimistic that we will get a positive outcome in the final determination. I will tell you that this could be very good news from us, we've been seeing a lot of a -- we sell about 50% of our beam, structural products into our fabricating businesses. That's about 1 million tons a year that we sell into fabricated steel construction and it hurt, we're hurt on demand, it hurt on pricing and we think that that's a result of truly dumped and illegally and unfairly traded products coming in. Canada, Mexico and China being the three biggest violators of our trade laws in this product. So, we see it as a big plus, if we get a positive outcome, we are confident we're going to get positive outcome. We will just wait to see what happens.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Martin Englert with Jefferies.
Martin Englert:
Can you provide a little bit of commentary given the recent flooding on the river system, maybe discuss how this has impacted your material sourcing and if it has had any temporary implications for the input cost for the Company?
John Ferriola:
Overall, we've done quite well through the flooding. I'd say our most seriously impacted plant was on Nebraska facility where we had significant flooding in the division. We have lost a bridge that we use for rail transportation in and out of the town of Norfolk, but I got to tell you the team there did a great job responding to the crisis. We had minimal impact if anything over the course of a month. And in general, when we talk about the river, in terms of raw materials coming in and out, there really hasn't been much of an impact at all. The river has been pretty good in terms of the flooding, we haven't had too much of an issue, a little bit on the Mississippi, but nothing that's impacted our plants, either with shipments going out or raw materials coming in.
Martin Englert:
Okay, thanks for the detail there. And if I could one other, within the release, you did highlight the internal growth initiative, but also called out other growth opportunities. Any more detail you could provide around this? And would it be something focused on the core steel segment domestically based or something else?
John Ferriola:
Anything that was outside of what we mentioned specifically in the opening comments, we will not be able to comment on.
Operator:
Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank has our next question.
Chris Terry:
Hi, John and team. Just a follow-up to that last one maybe more conceptually, the comments on the front around the other potential growth opportunities, these are independent of the ten projects that you've spoken about, I just wanted if you could comment on that, and secondly just on the guidance for next quarter, I know you touched on the volumes, you expect to be flat to potentially a touch up. I would have thought that the spreads would still be widening, so that appears conservative on the guidance. Just wondered, if you could comment on that as well?
John Ferriola:
First of all, on the comment about our potential growth opportunities outside of what we mentioned, it's a general statement. We are constantly looking for good opportunities to grow our Company profitably. You've heard me mention many times our five drivers of profitable growth as we are constantly on the lookout for opportunities that fit those five drivers of profitable growth and continue to grow the diversity of our Company. We take great pride in the fact that we're the most diversified steel and steel products Company in North America for sure, and we think that brings great value to our customers and to our shareholders. So we will continue to look for opportunities that expanded there, and that met with the criteria we've established in our five drivers of profitable growth, but beyond that, I really can't say anything more specific. In terms of the earnings going into the second quarter, what we said was they will be similar and I think that's really all we can say at this time. We are in a very cyclical business, things change rapidly. As we see the second quarter right now, we see the earnings, the volumes to be about the same, we see the earnings to be similar and that's how we view it right now.
Operator:
Next, we'll hear from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curt Woodworth:
So, first question is just on working capital management. If I look at the last two years between accounts receivable and inventory, it's been about a $2.8 billion cash outflow, which I understand you're going to trend up just given what the pricing did and what's going on in the market, but it would seem that there is a significant opportunity to get working capital back out of the Company. I just wondered if you could address that given sheet pricing is back down basically to where it was a year ago.
Jim Frias:
This is Jim. Let me answer that question. Our volumes of inventory and receivables didn't go up in terms of days on hand. They went up to commensurate with the volume of business that we are conducting. So, to the extent receivables went up, average prices were up. We are still collecting just over 30 days to collect our receivables. So, there's not a opportunity to shorten the collection of receivables, but you're right, if prices were to fall further, we get a benefit. And in fact if you think back to 2015, we had a pretty weak earnings year as prices fell dramatically, but we generated very strong cash from operations because of working capital liquidation. And then, the inventory side of course when steel prices fall down, scrap prices fall down. So, the overall cost of all of our inventories gets lower and of course, we do low our volumes inventories a little bit when business activity is lower level. So, yes, there is -- I mean, a severe downturn, there is an opportunity for some shrinking working capital. Now, if we look at what just happened in the first quarter, working capital was fairly neutral, whereas last year it was a drag on earnings of several hundred million dollars, maybe $600 million. So, what we're seeing right now is more of a stable environment for working capital, whereas last year it was building with expansion of margins.
Curt Woodworth:
Right. But if I look at inventory days, you finished last year at 82, a year before that, you're at 73, 66, 57....
Jim Frias:
Yes. We talked a little about this year and quarter there was a little bit of shipment delay with some of our customers at year end and there was also an issue with the supply chain, with raw materials. We were a little heavier than we wanted to be on pig iron, and so, we've been working that down -- working down a little bit, but it's not a huge opportunity. I would view it as still working capitals to be relatively flat as we go through the middle part of the year.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. And then just one follow-up on automotive. John, with some of the investments you're making on the galvanizing side, I know, the Company has already had pretty good success on gaining auto share. Can you just talk to your expectations for auto share growth with these new investments? I think you were targeting about 1 million tons of auto sheets either this year or last year and if you could just update us on sort of the amount of OEMs you're engaged with now versus a year or two ago that would be helpful. Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Well we mentioned it in the earlier statements that we -- one of the markets that is declining as we go into this year is automotive. We expect it to be down somewhere around 16.8%, 16.9% level compared to 17.2% last year. But the good news is, we continue to grow our market share in the shrinking markets. We have a larger piece of a smaller pie. You're right, a lot of the investments that we're making will continue to allow us to grow our market share in those areas, and specifically, I would mention the cold mill project at Hickman. I would mention the Gallatin expansion project, that's another one that's going to get us into automotive products. So, going forward, we see our market share continuing to grow in automotive. You asked specifically about where do we see us currently, and we'll do about 1.6 million tons this year and by the end of the year, I think we'll be operating at a pace of about 2 million tons per year at an annual rate of about 2 million tons a year by the end of this year. So, we're really excited about the penetration we made into automotive, you asked about what companies we are participating with, I'm not going to give specific names, but I will say that basically virtually all of the 14 OEMs we do business with today and we're really excited about that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
So, I'm hoping you can help me connect the dots on the volume discussion we've been having. If I look at your Q1 volumes, just looking at the category, as you gave us, you got 5 million tons, and if I look at the first half of last year, it was 10.7, let's call it, but you're flat into the second quarter, then you are declining substantially year-over-year, but you told us that most of your end markets are going up nicely and auto will be flat. So, I'm just struggling with how to understand that. Is it something we're missing on the weather side, are customers not buying according to their demand? Can you help me understand that?
John Ferriola:
Well, a couple of comments. The first one, Yes, your last point is exactly correct there is a lot of things going on in the market today, demand remain strong, but we see a lot of things happening. One example I would give you is that, a lot of the service center inventories are coming down quickly and they are getting to pretty low levels, and still a good amount of into sales between service centers, as they continue to work off the numbers from the end of last year. So you see some of that activity taking place, the weather, as I said, impacted the first half of the year, we see that's moving up now, as we go forward. The other issue, I'd want to give you is, as you know, as we see scrap coming down, our customers tend to hold off, we need to see what's going to happen with the scrap. So there is, I believe -- personally I believe there's a lot of pent-up demand, people are waiting to see what's going to happen on scrap and in other areas, but remember the basics, demand continues to be good, imports continue to be lower than they were in last year and they continue to be down, year-over-year for certain. So at some point, we do believe that we'll see the volumes start to pick up as we go through the second half of the year when we were talking about the overall volume being consistent year-to-year, that's overall the cost of the year, we think it will pick up in the second half. At the end of the day, I can tell you that as we said in the -- in the opening statement, we look at 24 end-markets, we talk to these customers all the time and they are very optimistic our customers are very optimistic about what's going on in the marketplace. And the final point I would make is that some of our customers last year, they got a little bit heavy in their inventories because of hedge buying, they thought, they'd get ahead of the 232, they got some heavy loads there that is still working their way through. So a lot of things going on Timna, but at the end of the day, I look at markets, I look at what our customers are saying and frankly, one of the things that I would point out that I think is often missed, by the market and some analysts is, we participate in so many of the downstream markets that we sell into that we get a really good feel for what's happening in those markets. Obviously, in rebar fabrication and Metal buildings and in Tubular. So, we being in those markets have a good sense of what's happening in those markets and we still feel optimistic about the demand that we see in those -- in those markets as well in our steel markets.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, helpful, but maybe that...
John Ferriola:
I don't know if that helped you connect the dots.
Timna Tanners:
Yes, I mean, they helped, but I'm still of a confusion, I'm confused about the next area or maybe the same answer, but on price, so we've talked about volume, but on price, I'm not going to hopefully put you on the spot, but prices have been going down despite demand going up and more in the flat rolled side I recognized in some of the scrap, but why are domestic mills, I know, I have to repeat myself here, but why are the domestic mills charging at or below landed import prices if demand is so good and imports are down?
John Ferriola:
You know, one of the reasons I would give you is that there are some start up mills, I'm not going to speak specifically to any competitor, but when you have new people coming back into the market they've got to earn their way into the market, sometimes I might even say, they've got to buy their way into the market. So we see some of that going on with new entries into the marketplace. Obviously, when you start up a new mill or restart a mill, there's issues with some quality and deliveries and so forth, that force you to be a little bit lower priced again in the market where you're looking to gain, so that's such a drag onto the market, obviously and as I mentioned in the first part of the -- in my answer, scrap pricing going down, leads to an expectation by buyers that will be a better price tomorrow that there is today, so they hold back, that forces us to be a bit more -- little bit more responsible on pricing. So, it's not always a case of pricing following exactly what's happening on the volumes and demand, but I will tell you that when you look at that relative to the fact that demand is strong, scrap pricing is going down, and even if steel pricing is going down, the metal margins we think are going to be good, maybe slightly improving as we go forward. So again, we're still pretty optimistic about the market one of the things that I'm asked often is how do I compare this year to last year, and I answer by saying this is a full year, we're going to have a really good year. Will it be as good as last year? Maybe not, I'll tell you what, it's been a -- will be a lot better than most of the years we've had in the last ten years, that for sure, and it'll be a good year.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, helpful. If I could just ask one last one, can you talk a little bit more about the raw materials segment, because I know in the last call, you had said that in the second half there are going to be some outages, so I had already adjusted for that, but now you're talking about a margin squeeze in DRI, and I'm just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on what's going on there and what the bigger picture is, I think if iron ore prices are going up, is it just a question of not being able to pass that through, or can you detail that a little more? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
When you talk about our raw material side, you're talking about DRI specifically, I would assume, okay, and as the DRI plant in Louisiana, just to set everyone's mind that you said has been running very, very well, it's not been an issue with our operations there. The issue on performance is the fact that we sell DRI to our home mills, that's what the pig iron pricing is. Pig iron pricing has been coming down, so plus our selling price for the DRI, adjusted for value and use must be going down also. So that's been the biggest impact in the first half. We did have a short outage, I think it was about 12 days where we had a valve fail, it was not a major issue, we did not have to take it offline and do all the things that we do it across weeks out of service. We did have a small outage of about 12 days, but that was not a significant impact to the -- it was basically the fact that pig iron pricing is going down, so DRI pricing is going down. Now that's bad news on our DRI side, but bear in mind that we produce about 3.5 million tons of DRI, we buy about 3.5 million tons to 4 million tons of pig iron. So what we lose on the bananas, we kind of make up on the tomatoes a little bit. You know, and so it's a nice hedging situation where we do lose it on the DRI, but it's nice to get the better price on the -- on the pig iron. Now, one more point you did mention in the second half, I do want to give everyone an update on that. We did mention that there will be a 60-day outage. It is going to be -- they're going to be down probably toward the end of August, middle to end of August and will be down for 60 days, it's going to make major repairs to our furnace vessel, to the control systems and to the refractory, to deal with the reliability issues that we've had in the past in those areas. And there was one more major work that we have to do, which will be, toward the -- probably early next year and that will be on the material handling side. But right now, it's the -- as you know the big problem that we've always had is with the process gas heater and that's the major repair that we're making, a second issue we've had in the past probably the number two issue with reliability was our refractory, and we're also going to be doing -- redoing that during the 60-day outage. And that's beginning of next year, and so we will not have a major impact to the operation, but we will be doing another large project on our material handling side to improve efficiencies.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
So question just to -- just to go a little bit further on what Timna was asking. So am I correct in looking at the profitability for the raw materials division as being $53 million including the $34 million gain. So the core number was about $20 million, but I think off of that number, you're saying that the results are going to be even weaker in the second quarter for the DRI business which would likely suggest DRI is going to be in a strongly negative or a loss position, and some of the quarters over the last several years, we've had some positives there, some we've had negatives and I know you're working to rectify that, but should -- should we be thinking that over the course of the cycle, given there will be times when iron ore is expensive and pig iron isn't like it is now, that this -- that this asset will be essentially just a cost center for you through the cycle?
John Ferriola:
I'm not sure it'll be a cost center I think you said it more correctly at the beginning when you said as pig iron pricing changes goes up and down, then profitability of the DRI facility will go up and down. Again as I said earlier, one of the values and one of the reasons we did this was that it does provide a balance for us, a hedge for us against pig iron pricing when it starts to go up. So, yes, there will be times when the DRI pricing is under pressure, because pig iron pricing is under pressure, but also there will be times that it's reversed. So, it's a -- it's going to change as pig iron prices goes up and down.
Jim Frias:
And John, it also keeps pressure on prime scrap prices and so we get to benefit there as well by having the pig iron there -- the DRI there, but yes, DRI did not perform as well in the first quarter as it did for most of last year, it'll probably perform slightly worse in the second quarter, but that's not so much about -- it's not about operations as John earlier said, it's really about pig iron prices and iron ore prices. Those are getting tighter. There's not as much spread to make money as there used to be.
Phil Gibbs:
Is there availability issues in terms of the pellet supply stream, because I would assume you likely get some from Brazil and some from Europe, because that's where the main pellet suppliers are at. I mean are you seeing any tightness in supply right now or is that been something okay?
Jim Frias:
It's definitely getting tighter. There's no doubt about that. You've heard about the problems that Vale has had, but you know remember that we are one of the largest buyers, okay, and we've had -- we are certainly a very reliable buyer and we are a reliable payer, okay, so we've had a long-term relationship with Vale and several other suppliers. So, although, there is a tightness we have not had any issue in getting what we needed to keep our operations running.
Operator:
That will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference over to John Ferriola for any additional closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
So, let me close by saying, again, I want to express our appreciation to our shareholders, and say thank you to our customers. We firmly believe that together we can build powerful partnerships and get powerful results. And finally to my Nucor teammates as always, thank you for what you do for Nucor everyday and most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder today's call is being recorded. Later we'll conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risk and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's Web Site. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call and for your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also on the call today including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer, Joe Stratman, our Chief Digital Officer, Craig Feldman responsible for Raw Materials, Ladd Hall responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products, Ray Napolitan responsible for Engineered Bar Products, Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products, Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products, and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. Before we review our 2018 financial results. Let me make a few comments about safety. Safety continues to be job number one for every Nucor teammate. Nucor safety incident rates are consistently below the national averages for comparable operations almost always less than half of the nationwide figure, but we're not satisfied with that. Our goal is zero incidents in all Nucor facilities. Our teammates remind each other regularly that they must work safely so that each of us returns home to our families at the end of every shift. So let me just take a moment to repeat what I say every time I visit a Nucor facility. Nothing is more important than safety. Absolutely nothing. I want to thank all of our teammates for working safely and identifying and mitigating the risks in your operations. I appreciate your continued focus on driving our incident rates towards our ultimate goal which always must be zero. Now I'll review some highlights from the year, then Jim Frias will discuss our financial performance for the fourth quarter and for the year. The best way for me to sum up 2018 is this. It was a record year for Nucor. We posted record earnings per share and we shipped a record amount of steel. Strong economic growth fueled our record year, tax reform and the ongoing efforts to reform the Federal Regulatory System took a good economy at the end of 2017 and made it even better. The Section 232 steel tariffs provided another tailwind for Nucor. Between the tariffs and the cumulative impact of the trade cases the industry has won in recent years unfairly traded imports to the U.S. market have declined significantly. Increased demand levels and lower inputs generated approximately 6 million tons of added volume for the U.S. steel industry last year. Over the past decade, we have been positioning Nucor to take full advantage of an upturn in the steel market. During that time we invested more than $9 billion to increase the company's peak earnings power. These investments enhanced our competitive strengths by building on our product diversity and market leadership positions. Our financial results demonstrate that Nucor is disciplined strategy of investing for profitable growth is working. Here are just a few examples of how those investments are growing our company's earnings power and driving shareholder value creation. Our sheet metal group's 2018 pre-tax contribution was more than 80% greater than the group's prior record performance achieved during the previous steel industry's up cycle. During the economic downturn, our sheet metal investments included the acquisition of Gallatin steel, Decatur's galvanizing line, Berkeley's caster and Hot Mill upgrade and Hickman's vacuum degasser. Our engineered bar products group also delivered record earnings last year driven by strategic investments that expanded value-added product capabilities at our mills in Nebraska, Tennessee and South Carolina. The plate mill group realized attractively terms because of the investments we made to add heat treating and normalizing capabilities at our Nucor steel Harford. And to add accelerated cooling capabilities at Tuscaloosa. The structural steel mill group is capitalizing on Nucor [new] [ph] models expanded product portfolio that now includes high strength, low alloy beams and wider lighter sheet pilings. Shipments of high strength low alloy beams more than doubled in 2018 from the prior year level. This has been achieved after making our first shipments in late 2016 into this product market previously served exclusively by imports. Our Downstream steel product segment delivered record earnings in 2018, powered by the impressive performance of the HSS and electrical conduit product acquisitions, we completed in late 2016 and early 2017. Finally, significant earnings gains were achieved by our David J. Joseph scrap business and both of our DRI plants. The Louisiana DRI facility established new annual records for plant uptime, production and shipments in 2018. David J. Joseph's profitability was just shy of its record performance achieved during 2008 unprecedented raw materials market, successful execution of DJJ's mill alignment and efficiency initiatives is enhancing the returns delivered by both our scrap recycling and steelmaking businesses. We continue to invest in Nucor's future in order to build our Nucor's long track record of delivering superior returns for investors. Over the course of 2018, we announced approximately $1 billion of value enhancing investments to build new mills, expand production capacity at existing mills and advanced Nucor's technological capabilities. In 2019, we have already announced another $1.3 billion investment to build a modern state-of-the-art plate mill in the U.S. Midwest, which I'll discuss in greater detail shortly. In the coming year, we expect to complete many of these high return initiatives which will grow our steelmaking capabilities in both long and flat products. Six projects will begin operations this year that represent approximately $1 billion in capital investment and will create approximately 700 new full time jobs at Nucor. We are excited to begin realizing the benefits of these value enhancing investments. Many of you joined us earlier this month for the announcement of our newest growth initiative a state-of-the-art plate mill to be located in the Midwest. The mill will have an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons and it's expected to be operational in 2022. This investment will position us right in the heart of America's largest plate consuming region, which will give us logistical advantages over our competitors. It is also a region with excellent scrap availability. A new mill will allow us to produce 97% of the plate products demanded in the domestic market including the highest margin products enabling us to build a clear market leadership position in the U.S. plate market. Now these investments, Nucor will be well-positioned to capitalize on regional market opportunities and drive continued profitable growth. We will post a status update on our major investment initiatives on the Investor Relations page of our Web Site later today. As we begin 2019, we are encouraged about the outlook for our domestic end-use market. In fact, we see improving market conditions in 20 of the 24 end-use markets we participate in today. Three of the remaining four are stable and one is declining as we head into 2019. 2019 is expected to be another solid year for automotive sales and Nucor plans to continue growing our share of this important market. In construction, we expect low single-digit growth this year and we have a strong presence in this market from highways to HVAC. Despite recent volatility in the energy market, market demand for line pipe will continue to grow as longer mileage projects get underway. We look forward to expanding our Gallatin Mill in order to produce the API grades required by this market. And in the heavy equipment and agricultural markets, we continue to experience healthy demand and high replacement needs. 2018 was an extra ordinary year and while we are proud of Nucor's continued success, we remain focused on taking care of our customers, executing our growth strategy and delivering even higher returns on our invested capital. Jim Frias will now provide more specific detail about our fourth quarter performance and financial position. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks John. Nucor reported fourth quarter 2018 earnings of $2.07 per diluted share and full year 2018 record earnings of $7.42 per diluted share. Fourth quarter results exceeded the top-end of our guidance range by about $0.12 per diluted share due to stronger than expected performance by our sheet structural and raw materials businesses. 2018 record annual earnings represent an increase of 24% compared to our previous earnings record of $5.98 per diluted share reported in 2008. Our strategy for profitable growth is working. Nucor continues to benefit from our longstanding tradition of investing opportunistically through economic cycles to grow long-term earnings power. Nucor also generated exceptionally strong cash flow over the course of 2018. For the year, cash provided by operating activities totaled approximately $2.4 billion as compared with 2017's operating cash flow of approximately $1.1 billion. These results combined with our disciplined approach to capital allocation enable us to return more than $1.3 billion to shareholders via dividends of $485 million and share repurchases of $854 million. After repurchasing 13.7 million shares last year, Nucor ended 2018 of approximately 306 million shares outstanding, $1.5 billion remains available under Nucor's existing share repurchase authorization. In addition, in December, Nucor's Board increased our regular quarterly cash dividend by more than 5% to $0.40 per share. Our company has increased its base dividend for 46 consecutive years every year since we first began paying dividends in 1973. Nucor's long-term success in rewarding our shareholders has been and will continue to be driven by effective and balanced capital allocation. Our ongoing investments to deliver future profitable growth are the vital foundation to that work. For 2019, we estimate capital expenditures of approximately $1.8 billion. That represents a significant increase from 2018 capital spending of approximately $1 billion approximately 70% of planned 2019 capital expenditures are for expansion, product improvement and cost savings projects with the remaining 30% for replacement or maintenance purposes. As John has already noted, Nucor has announced 10 significant growth projects that represent total capital investment of approximately $3.5 billion that will begin operations between 2019 and 2022. Of these capital outlays, approximately $600 million has been spent through 2018 an estimated $900 million will be spent in 2019 and the remaining investments of about $2 billion will occur through the end of 2022. We are excited about the impact that these investments will have for Nucor and all its stakeholders. We are directing our capital very strategically towards clear market opportunities and expect these projects to provide incremental EBITDA exceeding $600 million during normal market conditions. Nucor is already amongst the most diversified steel producers in the world with leadership positions in numerous products, regions and end use markets. These investments will enhance those leadership positions and position Nucor to outperform the industry for many years to come. We intend to fund these investments with internally generated cash flow and plan to continue returning a minimum of 40% of our earnings to our shareholders while maintaining our strong financial condition. With respect to our balance sheet at year-end, our total debt outstanding was $4.3 billion and our gross debt to capital ratio was 30%. Our year-end cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $1.4 billion. Now turning to our outlook. John has already mentioned the positive trends we are observing in our major end use markets. We do think that 2019 will be another strong year with earnings performance among the best in Nucor's history. For the first quarter of 2019, although sheet pricing and margins are expected to decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, we expect that this will be partially offset by increases in profitability at bar and structural mills. The performance of the raw materials segment is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2019 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 due to the decreased performance of our DRI businesses. We expect the profitability of our steel products segment in the first quarter of 2019 to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2018. Overall, we do expect that the first quarter of 2019 will be much stronger for Nucor than the first quarter of 2018. Thank you for your interest in our company. Now I'll turn the call back over to John. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks Jim. Before I wrap up, I want to say a few words about our newly updated corporate Web Site nucor.com. The new Web Site and branding reflect our focus on our customers. It is part of our effort to achieve commercial excellence by using our broad product portfolio and financial strength to give our customers the best possible experience. This is summed up by our new tagline 'Powerful Partnerships. Powerful Results.' The Web Site is a great resource for anyone who wants to learn more about our company. We will continue to build upon and improve this site to meet the needs of our stakeholders. My thanks to the team that brought this new site together. Let me conclude by thanking our more than 25000 teammates across Nucor for making 2018 a record year for our company. Your efforts not just in 2018, but as we pursued our growth strategy over the last decade enabled us to attain this milestone. I am proud that we could recognize your hard work with an extraordinary bonus last year. You certainly deserved it. The team at Charlotte appreciates the work you do every day to build a safer and more profitable Nucor. I'd also like to say thank you to our customers. We appreciate the trust you place in Nucor and we'll continue to do our very best to earn it with every order. We would now be happy to answer your questions. Operator?
Operator:
Thank you. The question-and-answer session will be conducted electronically. [Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curt Woodworth:
Hi. Good afternoon John and Jim.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Curt Woodworth:
Two questions not relating to the flat-rolled market which tends to get all the press. But firstly, when you look at your long products portfolio, you seemed pretty significant change in metal spread across most of all your line product categories as well as plate. So I just did some quick numbers looking at 1Q'18 versus 4Q'18 and it's at $1.6 billion of incremental EBITDA run rate just on metal spread change. So first question is, do you think that fundamentals for these products in terms of consolidation in the bar market tariffs is everything you're seeing on the demand side would that suggest you think margins would stay elevated relative to where you were this year? And then, second question, certainly just on the downstream businesses obviously HSS had a very good performance this year. Do you think that hollow structural pricing can stay relatively solid even though we've seen clearly a big step down in HRC and just talk to how we should model that business? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Let me start by addressing the first question. Clearly, as we mentioned in the script, we've seen demand staying strong in our downstream businesses in the downstream markets that includes our long products. So we see a lot of good year for that. I'm not going to comment on what's happening with any of our competitors. I'll just refer to the demand and say the demand looks good going forward. We continue to work with some projects that will actually help us in 2019 lower our cost structure and some of the capital products that we're bringing online. We're excited about that. So with demand strong and us bringing on some capacity what we think will be very competitive in the marketplace. We think it's going to be a strong year for our long products and it looks really good going into the year also, I don't see anything changing there slipping just a little bit as we start the year with the end demand remain strong. So I think it's going to be a good year for that also. Now to address your question on HSS, now that has been just an outstanding business for us both the HSS and the conduit business. Certainly, we'll see pricing dip a little bit with [HR] [ph] high demand dipping a little bit but the margin should stay pretty constant. And so we think demand is certainly good. And as you might have heard, we just announced a price increase of $40 on HR and on our flat-rolled products and also on the HSS. So, we see our market picking up in terms of pricing.
Curt Woodworth:
Have you seen customer every time extended on those price hike announcements. You think that's enough to get consumers out of the destock mindset?
John Ferriola:
Well, I can't comment it's really too early to comment on what's happening there. I know our lead times on high demand today are about three to four weeks and cold-rolled and galv was about five to six weeks someone in that neighborhood. But it's too early to see any change in that based up on the price increases was just on yesterday.
Curt Woodworth:
Fair. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And next we'll go to Matthew Korn with Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Korn:
Hey good afternoon everyone. Congratulations on a great year.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Matthew Korn:
Want to ask on the scrap markets, it seems as though the market was fairly shocked at the gap down in price that we saw in early January and watching the recent reports, it seems that the export markets have come off their bottom. Turkish mills are buying again, that's in your view, you think this is meaningful yet for the domestic market, should be getting a little bit more constructive as we think about February and afterwards?
John Ferriola:
Well, it's certainly going into -- we think it's hit the bottom we think that it's going to strengthen going forward. You mentioned several other reasons why I would also add to that known seasonal issue as we go into the winter months. Right now the flows are still very strong there's no issue with flows, but it was -- we are about to hit a terrible cold snap in the Midwest that could impact that. So I would say certainly no more down movement. We don't think. We think it's going to be pretty stable to moving up slowly.
Matthew Korn:
And then, ex-scrap costs, how should we think about the total drag from any other higher year-over-year raw materials into '19, electro, natural gas other metallics. Assuming that there's a little bit less DRI availability from Louisiana this year versus last year. Overall, what would you say you're budgeting for '19 on all the raw material sides in that front versus '18, if you could give any color?
John Ferriola:
Jim, do you have any details on what we have budgeted?
Jim Frias:
Not specifically but I would say that we would not expect material inflation in those areas.
John Ferriola:
Most of the electrode increases that we saw last year were based into last year's numbers and frankly we see that's starting to soften a bit. So we expect them to be no higher and probably a little bit softer as we go into 2019. Alloys, we think will be flat going forward. So in terms of raw material cost, what I've known out there is still the iron ore with the situation that just occurred in Brazil. We don't know what impact that will have on us. It's too early to tell.
Matthew Korn:
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next we'll get to Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. Two follow ups on the downstream products division please. Can you comment on the outlook for order backlog in that division and how that's developed over the last year comparing this to January 2018 would you see a stronger, a weaker backlog at this stage? And secondly, can you comment on fabrication margin obviously rebar fab has been under pressure for some time. What are your expectations for those margins going through 2019? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Jim, why don't you kick it off?
Jim Frias:
Yes. I will address the first part of the question on demand for our downstream year-over-year. And I would say overall the demand for our downstream business is as strong as we enter 2019. Most of our downstream businesses have improved backlogs year-over-year. I might mention that last year we were in a margin squeeze as steel prices went up and we're proud of the teams they were able to navigate that. And we're looking forward to 2019 as we expect some expansion in margins with steel prices having come down slightly. In regards to your second part of the question which was rebar fab. That is one of the still challenging markets that we have. That's no secret. That market has been challenged especially in the U.S. for the last 12 to 18 months. Demand is solid. Imports have declined and rebar steel costs have risen. However, the marketplace fabrication pricing has not yet fully reacted to that. We are encouraged, however, recently by the pricing dynamics that we're starting to see. We do have a backlog, however, we have to work through, but we do expect improved performance as we enter the second half of the year in rebar fabrication.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Thank you. And just to clarify, given the tenure of that backlog, would you expect rebar fab on a standalone basis to see a meaningful improvement in margin by second half or take longer entirety that order book to turn more positive.
Jim Frias:
I think we'll see in the second half of the year, yes, more improved margin especially in the U.S. Our Canadian fabrication business which is a significant part of our business is very strong, very strong backlogs with better margins. But in the U.S. we'll work through those over the next six to eight months. But with current pricing dynamics that we see currently we are encouraged for the second half of the year.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
Hey good afternoon guys. How are you?
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Timna Tanners:
First, I thought I'd start out asking if we could make some comments about some of the new capacity in the marketplace recently. So specifically the JSW Mill and the restart in Granite City, are you seeing them, are you running up against them, is that part of the market weakness? And what do you think the market will look like in a couple of years. You see all this new capacity being as daunting as some fear or do you think that we'll have a shakeout?
John Ferriola:
Well, I think there's always a shakeout if there's a stocking in demand. Let me address the first question. When you look at what's come online today particularly in the sheet markets exclusively in the sheet market, you are looking at about 2.5 million tons of new capacity coming online. Imports are down about 1 million tons. So you have a net of about 1.5 million tons in a market that's 60 million tons overall, the whole sheet market. So it's not that great of a change. At the end of the day, the most cost competitive most efficient, best operating company will be the one that does the best, [think of others] [ph] if what happens with capacity coming online. And we think we do pretty well in all of those areas. So there will be some shakeout probably. Are we seeing a major impact today? Some. I don't believe that the current pricing situation that you see today as a result of that additional capacity. I believe that some of it is a result of the service that have filled up that took place at the end of last year. And there's going to be a period of time when they're looking to unload some of those tons. When you look at the months on hand for sheet products you can kind of see where we -- what happened over the months between October and December. So there's some of that going forward. But the key thing here is demand continues to be strong and we think that demand will continue to grow. Our best estimate today on sheet is probably about 1.5% to 2% growth over the course of this year. So between the demand growth as we work our way out of this inventory situation that's short lived. I think you're going to see things return to a more normalized state. We announced the price increase the other day and we would not do it if we weren't confident that we'd be able to collect on it.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Super. That's helpful. And then, just because the buyback in Q4 was particularly high and you have that high quality problem of generating a lot of cash even and when I plug in there's some new CapEx guidance. Should we consider this being a good run rate given what you know of your current project profile or are there other factors that we could consider when contemplating what your buyback program might look like?
John Ferriola:
Jim, you want to tackle that?
Jim Frias:
Yes. I'll take it. We will return 40% of profits as a minimum to investors. And then with the Board of Directors, we'll look at our net debt to capital position through the year and if we think we have extra liquidity that should be returned to investors we will. And we will choose between additional dividends or share purchases based on what our intrinsic value model says about the stock price at that time. The other thing I'd add is, we did raise the dividend issue by 5% and we were able to do that because we reduced the share count by 4%. And so year-over-year, our dividend outlays will be about the same in 2019 compared to '18 even though the dividend per share is higher than 5% percent. Is that helpful?
Timna Tanners:
Yes, it is. I mean I guess I would just say is there anything in particular that helped drive that Q4 size of the buyback. I think I understand you saying it was also an analysis of where you think the share price should be and where it is? Is that a factor then as well?
Jim Frias:
Yes, it is. But I think the bigger factor was just that we recognize we're going to proceed with such strong good liquidity and so we felt like it was the appropriate thing to do.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Hey, good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Phil Gibbs:
Hey, John. During your mid-quarter you stated in the release that you thought your cash balance would be flat quarter-over-quarter and this morning it showed it was down over $500 million and I guess we were surprised by that to say the least. Any thoughts on that?
John Ferriola:
Well, in general it was a result of an inventory build that we weren't anticipating. Jim you want to get into any more detail?
Jim Frias:
Phil, I would just say that we weren't expecting the trade to go up the way it did. And we think it's something needs to come back down early in 2019. So we'll work on that. But that's the reason we didn't hit the cash numbers we were expecting.
Phil Gibbs:
Do you think that was more related to the -- some of the contract or service center customers not taking as much volume as you thought late in the year pushing that out?
Jim Frias:
There were a number of factors that was one of the factors. There's also quite a lot of lead time or some of the things that we used to make steel and that plays a factor to the forecast of what we're going to be operating at had to be made months and months in advance of our actually receiving the materials.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. And then secondly costs within the steel business looked a little bit elevated to our model. Just curious if there were any maintenance outages in the number or was there some catch up that got played through into the numbers from earlier in the year on some of those inflationary items?
John Ferriola:
No. There wasn't anything extraordinary in the way of maintenance. As far as the end of the year when we had some available time we took the opportunity some extra maintenance but there was nothing extraordinary that we can report to you.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Next we'll go to Derek Hernandez with Seaport Global Securities.
Derek Hernandez:
Hi, good afternoon. I was just hoping if you could elaborate your view on the positive end use demand and general economic conditions as well as the three segments that you said were not as positive as previously.
John Ferriola:
Well, what I said was that we saw out of the 24 markets that we followed 23 of them are steady or increasing the one that we see declining slightly as we go into 2019 is power generation.
Derek Hernandez:
I see. Thank you very much.
Operator:
That does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to John Ferriola for any additional comments or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Thank you, David. Well, let me sign-off by saying thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your ongoing confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate the opportunity to earn your business every day. We believe that together we can build powerful partnerships and powerful results. And finally to my Nucor teammates, thank you for a great year and your ongoing commitment to take care of our customers. And as always most importantly thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO & President James Frias - CFO, Treasurer & Executive VP
Analysts:
Matthew Korn - Goldman Sachs Group Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Alexander Hacking - Citigroup Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Derek Hernandez - Seaport Global Securities Curtis Woodworth - Crédit Suisse
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Certain statements made during this conference will be considered forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes these are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. These forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call and for your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also on the call today, including Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Joe Stratman, our Chief Digital Officer; Craig Feldman, responsible for Raw Materials; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. I will begin today's call by sharing with you the highlights from our third quarter. Jim Frias will then provide you more details about our financial performance. Nucor's strong financial performance continued into the third quarter with net earnings of $2.13 per diluted share and first nine months earnings of $5.35 per diluted share. We are on pace in 2018 to have a record year for earnings. Our financial results are evidence that Nucor was primed and ready for this long-awaited upturn in the steel market. Our strategic initiatives, including capital projects, acquisitions and enhanced customer engagement as well as our active participation in industry trade actions have solidified our market-leading performance. Our extensive investments have grown our peak earnings power and enhanced our many competitive strengths. Our growth and earnings capacity has been achieved in all three of our business segments
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Nucor reported third quarter of 2018 earnings of $2.13 per diluted share. Our results included a noncash impairment charge of $0.26 per diluted share after-tax related to Nucor's investment in proved producing natural gas well assets. Excluding this charge, third quarter 2018 earnings were at the high end of our guidance range of $2.35 to $2.40 per diluted share, which did not include any estimate for the impairment, as noted in Nucor's September 14 news release. Impressive earnings growth through the first nine months of 2018 has been achieved across our broad portfolio, including engineered bar, merchant bar and rebar, plate steel, structural steel, flat rolled, tubular products, joist and deck, metal buildings, cold finished bars and our raw materials businesses. Teammates throughout your company have worked hard to position Nucor for the strong conditions we are experiencing. We are encouraged by our results so far in 2018, and our focus remains on continuing to deliver the substantial payoff we expect from wisely investing our shareholders' valuable capital. Our 2018 earnings are also benefiting from the tax reform legislation that became effective this year. Excluding earnings attributable to noncontrolling interests, Nucor's effective tax rate was 24.2% for the third quarter and 23.4% for the first nine months of 2018. All of this has translated into exceptionally strong cash flow. Through just the first nine months of this year, your company generated approximately $1.9 billion of cash from operating activities or almost $6 per diluted share. As a result, Nucor's financial position remains strong. With total debt outstanding of approximately $4.3 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 29.6% at the end of the third quarter of 2018. Nucor's robust liquidity includes cash holdings of $1.9 billion at the close of the third quarter as well as our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn and does not mature until April of 2023. For 2018, we continue to estimate capital expenditures of approximately $1 billion. Approximately 2/3 of planned 2018 capital spending is for expansion, product improvement and cost savings projects, with the remaining 1/3 for maintenance purposes. Depreciation and amortization for 2018 is estimated to be approximately $730 million. Based on currently approved projects, we would expect 2019 capital expenditures to be higher than in 2018. We are not in a position to provide a dollar estimate for that today. In addition to investing for profitable, long-term growth, Nucor continues to deliver attractive cash returns to our shareholders. In the first nine months of 2018, Nucor returned $716 million to shareholders, with cash dividends of $365 million and share repurchases of $351 million. The share repurchases total approximately 5.4 million shares at an average cost of about $65 per share. Year-to-date 2018 capital returns are consistent with our target to return 40% of through-the-cycle earnings to shareholders. For the fourth quarter of 2018, we continue to see sustainable strength in steel end-use markets, albeit with normal year-end seasonal influences that typically impact fourth quarter performance. With our first nine months of 2018 net income of $1.7 billion, Nucor is poised to set a new annual earnings record, far eclipsing the 2008 record earnings of $1.8 billion. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. I would like to conclude by saying a bit more about trade. As I mentioned earlier, the tariffs are having their intended impact by curbing unfairly traded imports. They are sending the message that the United States government is serious about achieving compliance with the rules of trade, but they are also having an important long-term impact. The tariffs are providing leverage to get other countries to the table to negotiate fairer trade agreements for the U.S. We see both of the recently concluded trade agreements with South Korea and the new U.S., Mexico, Canada agreement as clear indications that the Trump administration's approach is working. We believe this new agreement with Mexico and Canada is good for the United States steelmakers and U.S. manufacturing as a whole and has important provisions that can be a model for future trade agreements with other countries. Our government has a unique opportunity at this moment to improve our trading relationships. We hope the administration continues to make the most of it, particularly in its ongoing negotiations with China. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we will take our first question from Matthew Korn of Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Korn:
A question on the DRI plant. If you could help us understand a little bit, what in the original plan was not working to the extent that you needed, that now you're going to be putting in this new equipment and with this capital? And then what caused the unplanned outage over this quarter? And whatever it was, is that related to the weakness in the system that these equipment upgrades are aimed at fixing?
John Ferriola:
Okay, Matthew. Good question. I'm glad you pointed that out. When you look at the money that we're going to be investing, it's about $200 million. And it could be split up just about equally between material handling and our processed gas heater. The -- let's start with the material handling. Basically, we had a failure in the domes that's been well reported. We've discussed it often. And it's taken some time for us to go back and reengineer the material handling without the domes to be more efficient. In fact, what we're going to be doing is modeling it very much after our Trinidad operation, which has been working extremely well for us. So about $90 million of the $200 million will be spent in the area of material handling. About another $85 million will be spent on the processed gas heaters, and as we've talked about many times, that's a separate piece of equipment. I often refer to it as a heating unit, an oven, that's been separate from us. We bought it off the shelf from an outside company. And just frankly, it was not a well-engineered product that we bought. We've had many problems with an engineered well because of the way the tubes land through the oven, through the heating unit. So we're taking the time next year. It will cost about $85 million to do this, to go in there and we've passed some refractory that's been damaged as a result of the failures in the past and to reengineer, redesign the tubes in a way that we believe will be more reliable going into the future, more similar to what we use in heating units, processed gas heaters in other parts of the chemical industry. Basically, I would say 90% of the failures that we've had over the years result of either material handling failure with the domes or in the processed gas heaters. Now you asked specifically about the failure that we had in the last quarter. That was an unusual failure. It was, frankly, a human error. One of our teammates just made a mistake while he was doing a preventive maintenance function. One of those things where we're going in and hooking up, replacing an electronic component as part of our preventive maintenance programs. And during the process, a mistake was made that caused the trip that shut down the unit. And in DRI operations, whenever you shut it down, it's just a long time to put it back up no matter how simple the repair is. In this particular case, because you have to cool it down and then reheat it in a very, very specific way to avoid doing more damage to the unit. Does that answer your question, Matthew?
Matthew Korn:
Yes, that does. That's actually great detail.
John Ferriola:
Let me add one more point, Matthew, if I may, and that is this. As we look forward, we think that the changes that we're making will greatly improve the reliability of this unit. So we feel very confident about what we're doing. One of the highlights, the things that we feel positive about is we had concerns early on with when we had many failures that there was something in the technology itself that was not good, that was not going to work well, that was not going to be reliable. And as we've delved into this and we've focused, as we've talked about in the past, people, process and equipment, we've discovered that the technology itself, internal to the furnace, is better than we had anticipated at the beginning. So we feel positive about that.
Matthew Korn:
John, that's very helpful. Let me then follow up on this, slightly different. You mentioned in your remarks that you've been very pleased so far with the execution of the 232 tariffs and with the government's approach overall on trade. Now the government has started to open up a bit the process by which some manufacturers can request exclusions to the 232 tariffs. We answered the quotas placed on certain countries. And there are some reports coming through, I think, even today on anticipation that we'll see some adjustments made on Canada and Mexico and how the tariffs will apply there. Is there any concern that you have that this could be weakening or be poised to weaken the 232 effect that you've been benefiting from so far this year?
John Ferriola:
Well, as I've mentioned many times in the past, we consider 232 a tailwind to our performance this year. What we really believe has been driving our performance this year, it was more tax reform, regulatory reform. The trade cases that we have successfully prosecuted over the last 2 to 3 years was, of course, will not be affected by any changes in 232 and the investments that we've made in our company, growing the horsepower of our company. So as we see changes coming down the pike, we don't believe that they will have a major impact on our business now, more specifically to what we think might be happening, particularly within NAFTA. You've heard me say many times that we were ahead of NAFTA. And to have this will be good for the U.S. economy, it's been good for the U.S. steel industry. We did believe that there was some improvements needed to be made to our 20-something, 23-year-old agreement, and those adjustments were made. At the end of the day, we think that there could very well be some changes to tariffs versus quotas, not only within NAFTA, but to other countries. But what we believe is that the tariffs are achieving their primary objective, which has been to bring other countries, including NAFTA countries with external to NAFTA also, bringing countries to the negotiating table to re-examine the way that we do trade and result in a more balanced trade policies and a more level playing field on which we compete. From day one, we have said the objective that we are hoping to achieve with 232 was to result long term in a more level playing field on which we can compete because we believe Nucor will do very well when we compete on a level playing field. And we think we see that happening. Now how it exactly shifts around going forward to get to that endpoint with tariffs or with quotas, I'm not in a position to say. But what I can tell you is that we continue to work with the administration to make sure that at the end of the day, we end up with an administration that supports free but fair trade as we go forward. We think, long term, if we establish trade relationships that are built upon a level playing field, you have a much longer-term positive effect than any short-term quotas or tariffs.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld from Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I just have a couple of questions on the outlook for kind of near-term steel demand and its implication for pricing in the U.S., given the recent volatility you've seen in the flat market. One of your peers earlier have noted, they've seen essentially a hiatus in demand for flat products during Q3 but that their order intake has meaningfully increased in recent weeks. Just provide us a bit of color on what you've recently seen for buyer appetite, and perhaps, what they can tell us about the reception to your most recent price hike for flat steels. Let's start there, please.
John Ferriola:
Well, what we saw in the end of the third quarter was pretty historical to what we see year-after-year. We always see some time around that period of dip, an order entry bias take a little bit of a timeout to kind of see what's going on. So we assess their inventory levels at the end of the year. And as we have seen in past years, it tends to be short term with order entry picking back up very quickly, and that's what we've seen this year also. So we also saw a dip in our order entry rate. We also have seen now a pickup, a resurgence in order entry rate on our flat products, both in sheet hot and cold band galvanized. Frankly, in our plate business, we were pretty solid all quarter. We did not see a historical dip that tends to occur. So I guess, at the end of the day, what I would say is that we still see strong demand. There is strength in the marketplace. We see pricing. It has come down a little bit. Our price increase that we've put in, I guess, it was about a week ago, was followed and seems to be sticking. So we feel good about that. So we -- and as I mentioned in the script, when we go out and look at our end markets, so the 24 end markets that we serve, 23 of them are either stable or on the uptick. And many of those that are on the uptick are just at the very beginning of the up cycle, which gives us confidence going into 2019 that we'll see the continued strength in both sheet and plate products.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Just to follow-up, given that you brought up plate as well. Can you just give us a bit more color on how you view the supply-demand dynamics in that product? Plate certainly seems to have stood out positively versus other flat products in recent months. Does it have to do with import penetration, domestic demand or just the behavior of your local peers in the U.S.?
John Ferriola:
I would say more of the first two than the third. Demand has been strong. Those markets that we sell into have been very strong. And energy, well, I can't say enough about energy. I was talking about earlier with the first question, the things that are driving our business, I negated to mention energy being so strong. That's what drives our business in sheet products, obviously, in oil country tubular goods. But it also has a major impact on our plate business. So with energy being so strong, we see demand in plate being very, very strong, and frankly, imports are down. So the imports are down significantly in plate. That's probably supporting the strength in our business. You've mentioned -- you touched a little bit upon our competitors. Some of our competitors have had outages during the third quarter, and that, of course, also helps the supply-demand equation. So yes, it's been strong. We see continued strength there. We see energy being strong going into 2019. And therefore, we see our plate business as well as the component of sheet that goes into energy being strong into 2019.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Timna Tanners from Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
So I wanted to talk a little bit more about your very high-quality problem of what to do with all this cash that you're generating. I know you've attribute -- you've alluded to it quite a bit. You announced a $2 billion buyback. But if we just look at your free cash flow generation, you could use all that authorization up within a year without much problem if you use a lot of it in one year. I just wanted to get a little bit more flavor of how you're thinking about the world right now with -- vis-à-vis M&A, buybacks, and of course, you do have your own organic growth projects. Listening to you talk about DRI and of course, natural gas, you couldn't have anticipated, but certainly, there has been some pitfalls with some big investments in the past. I'm wondering, like, how are you thinking right now vis-à-vis buying other assets, further organic growth and deploying this buyback program.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'm going to kick it off and talk a little bit about the first points of the cash that we are generating, and I'll turn it over to Jim and then ask him to turn it back to me and I'll address the last part of your question about how we're viewing organic growth and acquisitions in this part of the business cycle. But listen, you've heard us say this many times. Our first priority with our cash is to invest it in profitable, long-term growth, and that will be continued. That will continue to be our first and primary objective. Beyond that, if we don't have those opportunities, either through mergers or acquisitions or organic growth to invest profitably, then we will return it to our shareholders. Jim, do you want to kind of add some color to that?
James Frias:
Yes. I would just say, Timna, John talked about the significant number of capital projects that are organic in our pipeline. And typically, organic investment projects have the most predictable and reliable returns as a side comment. But next year's CapEx will be dramatically higher than this year's. So when we look at our cash position and our forecast of free cash flow, it's not just based on what it is today, but what it's going to be over the next 12 to 18 months. We would expect a continued return, 40% of our earnings to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. And we meet with the board quarterly and show them what our total liquidity profile is, both in the short term and in the -- as well as what our outlook is for those things. And we have a good debate and discussion about whether it's appropriate to do something additionally for shareholders beyond just the 40%, and that process will continue. John?
John Ferriola:
I'd like to address your last comment or question about organic growth and what else we might be doing with our cash, in addition to returning some of it to shareholders, as Jim has mentioned. And as you know, it would not be appropriate, and I will not make any specific comment to any specific acquisition opportunities. But I'd like to make just some general comments. And we said this consistently before that we are always on the lookout for opportunities to strategically grow our business. We look for opportunities that fit well with our five drivers of profitable growth. And we look to be opportunistic when it comes to valuing and acquiring those assets. And when we look at investing in long-term, profitable growth, you've got to consider different times of the business cycle, which present different opportunities. And we weigh those opportunities to invest capital in our existing facilities, as what we've announced at Gallatin, against opportunities to add new greenfield operations, such as our micro mills that we've announced, and against opportunities to acquire existing businesses from others. And this should come as no surprise, but in strong markets, sellers are proud of their assets and they value them accordingly. That's why when you look at our history, we historically grow organically during the stronger markets. Now that said, we are always on the lookout for opportunistic buys, and we will continue to do that. In the end, Timna, the way I would like to say it is this, we deploy capital at whatever point we are in the business cycle in a way that creates the greatest long-term value to our shareholders. And that was a very vague and kind of long answer to the question, but we've been getting that question a lot lately, so I wanted to take the time to kind of talk about that in relation to your question about what do we do with our cash.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. I appreciate it. It's a little bit of all the above. And I think that with the amount that you're generating, you have a lot of options. And I like your point about, in strong markets, organically, you have grown more in the past than the acquisitions. Well, that's interesting. Can I -- this is my second question. If I could drill down a little bit more and try to understand how to think about the raw materials segment. And I know that you just spent -- telling us about some of the projects that need to be completed at DRI, Louisiana. But it's been years of different projects, and I'm just struggling to think about, in the longer term, when do we consider that you get to the -- when will these projects finally get us to a good run rate? And how do we think about that run rate? Was the first half of the year EBIT a good run rate until the recent hiccups at your current capabilities? Is there upside to recent numbers? And when do we expect we get to that more normal operating environment?
John Ferriola:
That's a good question, Timna. I'm glad you asked it. When I was talking about the DRI, I should have done -- gone a little further into the projects, the restructuring of the raw material side and of the processed gas heater to point out the timing of this event. It will take most of this year of -- -- excuse me, 2019, to get it ready with the engineering and the equipment. We're working on it now. Engineering is done. The equipment is being built. We will be taking a 60-day downturn. Sometime towards the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2019, we will complete the work upon the material handling side. We will complete the work in the processed gas heater. Our objective, our intention is to come up after that. We think we'll be much more reliable. Our target is to achieve 8,000 hours, which would rival our performance in our Trinidad operation. I'd like to say that when you look at the quality of the product coming out of Louisiana, it rivals the quality of the product coming out of Trinidad. So we're there in terms of product quality. We need to get there in terms of reliability. We believe that these two projects will get us there. We've actually named this endeavor project 8,000 to keep people's minds focused on the fact that we need to get to 8,000 consistently, an 8,000-hour consistent run rate. And I want to take this moment to just give a shout-out. It's not exactly to your question. But I've got to give a shout-out to our team in Trinidad. They operated 137 days in a row, which is a record, okay, for a Midrex operation. And frankly, the only thing that stopped them from going further, Timna, was an earthquake, okay? An earthquake stops them, shuts them down, and then they turned right around. And the recovery they made after that earthquake was just nothing short of amazing and got back up and operating much quicker than I anticipated. And just well done, team in Trinidad, and thank you for doing such a great job and doing it safely. Jim, did you want to add something?
James Frias:
No, you did it well, John. Thank you.
Timna Tanners:
End of 2020, is that what you're thinking?
John Ferriola:
No. At the end of -- yes, 2020. At the end of 2019, we will come back online with what we believe will be a very reliable DRI operations in Louisiana.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Alex Hacking of Citi.
Alexander Hacking:
I just wanted to follow up on Louisiana DRI again. You mentioned that some of the equipment is going to be modeled on Trinidad. If I remember correctly, Trinidad was built on Midrex technology, and I don't know if Louisiana was built on Midrex technology. I don't think so. Are you involved now with Midrex at Louisiana? Are they part of the solution there?
John Ferriola:
Alex, let me clarify a point you might have misheard or I misspoke. When I was referring to that, what we're modeling after our Trinidad operation is simply the material handling end, okay? We had originally had domes to store and had a conveyor system to move our material handling in Louisiana. When the domes collapsed, we went to a more manual system, and that's what we have been using for the last couple of years while we've been in the process of deciding, which is the best method to use to handle material. That is not a Midrex design. It's not an HYL design. That's a Nucor design that we've used in Trinidad for, I don't know, 10, 15 years or something like that. So at the end of all of the studying, we've decided that the way that we've handled the material in Trinidad has been very effective, and we've decided to model Louisiana's material handling after Trinidad's material handling, nothing to do with Midrex or HYL technology.
Alexander Hacking:
Okay. And then the second question, how concerned are you about -- like a macro question. How concerned are you about the amount of flat-rolled capacity that's coming into the U.S. market over the next 3 to 4 years? It's one of the biggest questions that we get from investors. Between your plants, your competitor's plants and a couple of restarts, there's a lot of capacity alive and people are concerned that there might not be sufficient demand. Maybe you could comment.
John Ferriola:
Well, it's interesting that you say you get that question a lot from investors. So do we. We keep hearing that in terms of what other people are doing and also, frankly, in terms of what we are doing. So let me start by talking a little bit about what some of the things that we are doing. I'd be very specific in saying, look, we're not adding capacity. We said this in the script. We don't add capacity simply to add capacity. And we're investing in our company to better serve our customers, to strengthen our competitive position and frankly, to reinvest and position our divisions for the next decade. So all of our expansion plans are being made with very, very specific, strategic objectives. So let me start with that point. Now I'm going to spend a little bit of time on this because we do get it so often. We hear from many of our investors. So let me just talk a little bit about some of the things that we're doing, why we're doing them and what we're looking to accomplish. I hear a lot about our long products plans in rebar and merchant, and this, are we concerned about that we're adding 700,000 tons of rebar to the market and 400,000 tons of perch into the market. When you look at that, you'd say, "Well, we're adding 1.1 million tons of long products into the market." But the reality is that we're realigning our position in long products and reassigning some divisions into new products, into new areas. So when you look at how we're shifting things around, okay, we are moving 400 tons of the rebar, of our current rebar, into long and SBQ, into new divisions, into new products and new divisions. At the end of the day, when you look at how we've restructured our long products in rebar and merchant bar, what we're actually adding is about 500,000 tons, okay, and actually shifting about 70% of the added milled capacity will be directed into new or higher value-added products, specifically long and SBQ. So when you look at what our long products' strategy is, we're not just simply adding into the -- additional tons into the market. We're realigning our production to better meet our customer demand in the markets. And I can't give you a better example of that than Sedalia. So let me just talk about Sedalia for a minute, okay? Sedalia is located in the middle of 900,000 rebar market, 900,000 tons. Of that 900,000 tons, 700,000 of that 900,000 tons in that market, Sedalia will have between a 350-mile and 400-mile freight advantage in shipping to their customers. That is not insignificant when you look at costs. And when you add to that fact that we are surrounding Sedalia with David J. Joseph's scrap operations that are literally within 50 miles...
James Frias:
75, 80 miles.
John Ferriola:
75, 80 miles of that operation, and I think we have about 10 -- 8 to 10 processing plants within...
James Frias:
11.
John Ferriola:
11 to be exact, okay, within 70 or 80 miles, look at the advantage that we could have from a cost perspective. And I bring this up because when we talk about overcapacity, the way to survive in an overcapacity market, if there is one, is to be the low-cost producer. So the investments that we're making on the long products side will lower our costs, bring us closer to the customers, okay, and that's a very strategic objective that we have on long products. So again, I'm going to be just very brief. I'll be quick, okay? All right. I've got my CFO, who's shaking his head at the length of my answer. But this overcapacity issue comes up over and over again. So I want to make sure that people understand. When we talk about we're adding capacity at Gallatin in hot band, it's a very specific type of hot band that we're adding, okay? It's wire, all right? It's -- we're starting out with a thicker tested slab going into it. And why is that important? Well, that gives us different physical properties. And very specifically, it allows us to move into the, what we call, the X grades, okay, which gets us into the pipe market. So the investment that we're making in Gallatin gets us into a new market, okay? The galvanizing line that we're putting in at Gallatin, it's going to be the widest hot-band galvanizing line in North America. That opens up a world of new markets for us. So I'm not going to go through every one of them or I think my CFO will hit me over the head, okay? But if you look at every specific organic growth investment that we are making in this company, it is being done with a very specific, strategic objective, either lowering the cost, moving us up the value chain or getting us into new markets. And that's a very important difference to the investments that we're making and some of the other ones that I hear around the country. Now I would just back all of that up with, when you look at -- and we've had -- I mean, we do market studies all the time. And when we look particularly at sheet, we think that there is a consistent growth of about 2% in hot band, cold rolled and galvanized over the next 4 to 5 years. So when you look at the overcapacity or the new capacity that you referred to as overcapacity, there's room for it to grow. You add into that the work that's being done and we will continue to do in lowering the imports. Right now, if you look at last year, imports accounted for 27% of the market. We've got that down now to 24%. Historically, import should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15% to 20%. And I also don't know if I have the numbers exactly right, but when you lower that import from 27%, 28% down to somewhere in the neighborhood of 15%, you're basically eliminating 12 million to 13 million tons. That gives you that amount of room to grow with a product that's produced domestically. So between the normal year-over-year growth, the reduction in imports, there's room to grow our domestic supply. In addition to that, when you look at our projects, they're very targeted to very specific, strategic objectives. Long answer, I apologize, but I wanted to address this overcapacity issue because I think it's being pulled along.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
I have a question on DRI just from a slightly different angle. So this $200 million that you're spending relative to today, what type of return are you expecting to get with that capital? And then sub-question, what would it take for you to consider a second module in Louisiana?
John Ferriola:
Jim, do you want to take a shot?
James Frias:
Well, Phil, the return metrics are really about getting the plant to be stable and predictable and operated at 8,000-ton rate. So if we compare operating it at an 8,000-ton rate to where they've been the last 2 or 3 years, the return is tremendous. It's extremely high.
John Ferriola:
And can I add to that, Jim?
James Frias:
8000 hours, sorry. Thank you. My mistake, I misspoke.
John Ferriola:
And Jim makes a very good point. In addition to that, as we have more reliability in our DRI, it allows us to more strategically approach how we buy obsolete and prime scrap both, okay? So the value -- everyone tends to look at, well, what's the return on the DRI plant itself. And that's -- there's going to be a good return. But more -- I believe, more importantly, it's the value that it's bringing to the rest of the, I don't know, 18 million tons of scrap that we buy, somewhere in the neighborhood with this year, 18 million tons.
James Frias:
So it's actually a bit more than that. It's probably -- total metallics are probably closer to 20 million.
John Ferriola:
More. And when you look at the pig iron, okay, that we buy, that's another 3 million, 4 million tons, it allows us to strategically place our buys with a greater deal of reliability. And that's where you get the real value out of a more reliable DRI plant in Louisiana.
James Frias:
Yes, about our Phase 2, John.
John Ferriola:
On Phase 2? Well, we've continued to look at that. We have the infrastructure in Louisiana. At this time, we have no plans to put a second unit in. But as you heard me say in the past, I personally believe that there is going to be more of a need for alternative iron units as we continue to move up the value chain and also as the existing prime scrap continues to degrade, as it continuously recycle through the process. As I've mentioned many times before, you cannot get copper out. And the amount of copper that has grown in prime scrap is, it's up like 300% since we've began tracking it in 1990 -- somewhere in the 1990s. So between the fact that it's degrading, between -- you add the fact that manufacturing is leaving the United States, this is where we get most of our prime scrap and that with the computerization of nesting, you get less scrap even in the manufactured products within the United States. For all of those reasons, I think prime scrap is going to continue to be challenged, and pricing will continue to increase and the value of DRI will increase also.
Philip Gibbs:
And Jim, would it be crazy to think that the spend could be a 2 to 3 year payback, given that dramatically increased uptime potential?
James Frias:
Yes. I think it's probably closer to two years. They've routinely -- at least they say it's the figure on pricing market. When that plant runs well, that had real strong contributions per month, which makes me feel like that could be a two year payback versus when they have problems.
Philip Gibbs:
That's perfect. And I just have another -- I have kind of a somewhat of a modeling question and then a strategic question. On the modeling, should we expect any further cost pressures on refractories or electrodes moving forward? Or has the bulk of that been felt or at least the majority of that have been felt already?
John Ferriola:
I think the majority of this have been felt already, particularly when we talk about electrodes. In fact, I think as -- maybe not so much in 2019 but beyond 2019, as the needle coke situation has been resolved, production starts to come back up, I think you'll see a gradual weakening in the pricing of electrodes, refractories. We've seen some increase in pricing, but that's been relatively stable over the last 4, 5 months.
Philip Gibbs:
And then my -- the last question, John, is just on the strength of the cycle. Right now, I think you said 23 or 24 markets flat or increasing. What's the one right now that's been lagging out of that bucket?
John Ferriola:
Marine transportation products. For us specifically, barges. We do sell some of our plate and some structural into barge market, and that has been weak. Marine transportation is the one general market that we feel is weak.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Derek Hernandez of Seaport Global Securities.
Derek Hernandez:
I just wanted to ask on your forward view into the end of the year in 2019 on scrap pricing for prime and obsolete.
John Ferriola:
You mean 2018?
Derek Hernandez:
Well, through the end of 2018 and possibly how it may evolve.
John Ferriola:
And into '19, okay. Okay.
Derek Hernandez:
Yes.
John Ferriola:
I would say that as we -- as is typical, towards the end of the year, you see moderate increasing in scrap pricing as seasonal issues come up. And depending on the weather, it will determine just how severe it is. So I would say we'd see a general increase in scrap pricing over the next several months through the first part of 2019. And then typically, as we see in this plan, it begins to moderate. I don't see anything radical. Barring any unusual events in the world, I don't see a major change, maybe in the neighborhood of $20, $25 on the upside over the next several months.
Derek Hernandez:
And if I could follow up quickly on your customers' inventories. Now that you've spoken about people coming back to market following the pricing increase last week, is there any additional detail you could give there?
John Ferriola:
When we look at -- the way I typically answer that is to refer to the months on hand with our service-side customers. And when you look at months on hand in virtually every one of our products, they are low. Not critically low, but they are lower than -- they are low. And then frankly, over the last 4 to 5 months, they have been decreasing, which is not unusual. So we feel pretty good about where the -- where our customers' inventories are at this point. We don't see a year-end oversupply in their inventories that are going to cause any problems on order entry.
Operator:
And we will take our final question from Curt Woodworth from Crédit Suisse.
Curtis Woodworth:
Yes. So I'm wondering if you could just expand a little bit more on some of the CapEx moving pieces next year. You had a comment that you think CapEx will be dramatically higher. So could you just frame some of the buckets? And would you think the bulk of the DRI spend is completed next year? In order of magnitude, are we thinking up 40% to 50% year-on-year? Just help us frame the moving parts.
James Frias:
We're not. We don't have a breakdown CapEx in terms of by project. We've told you what the overall -- each project individually is going to be when we announce them. But I would just say that next year's CapEx is probably going to be more than 40% higher than this year's.
John Ferriola:
We've got a lot of projects coming on. We're entering into the pace of the project where a lot of costs are incurred with equipment purchasing and so forth.
Operator:
And with no further questions, I would like to turn the call back to Mr. John Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Okay. Thank you. And to our customers, I'd like to say that we appreciate the trust that you place in Nucor, and we will continue to earn it with every order. To our shareholders, thank you for your continued confidence and support. And to my 25,000 teammates, I'd like to thank you for another solid quarter. The team in Charlotte appreciates the hard work you do every day to build a safer and more profitable Nucor. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, President and CEO Craig Feldman - EVP, Raw Materials Jim Frias - CFO Ladd Hall - EVP, Flat-Rolled Products Ray Napolitan - EVP, Engineered Bar Products Dave Sumoski - EVP, Merchant and Rebar Products Leon Topalian - EVP, Beam and Plate Products Chad Utermark - EVP, Fabricated Construction Products Joe Stratman - Chief Digital Officer
Analysts:
Chris Terry - Deutsche Bank Matthew Korn - Goldman Sachs Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Phil Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Piyush Sood - Morgan Stanley Alex Hacking - Citi
Operator:
Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties related to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor’s latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC’s and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Thank you for joining us for our second quarter earnings call and your interest in Nucor. Other members of Nucor’s executive team are also with me today. Joining us for the first time is our new Executive Vice President of Raw Materials, Craig Feldman. Craig is taking over for Jim Darsey, who retired last month. Craig is a proven leader with 33 years of experience at the David J. Joseph Company or DJJ, which Nucor acquired in 2008. He has served as President of DJJ within Nucor since 2013. His knowledge of the raw materials markets and our business is a great asset to our team. Welcome, Craig. We also have Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products, Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products, Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products; and Joe Stratman, our Chief Digital Officer. I will begin by sharing the highlights of our strong second quarter. Jim Frias will then provide more details about our financial performance. We are pleased to report another strong quarter with net earnings of $2.13 per diluted share, a record for the second quarter. It is also the second strongest quarter in Nucor’s history. Our steel mill capacity utilization in the second quarter of 2018 was an impressive 95% and improved year-over-year across all steel mill product groups. We achieved these results through continued disciplined execution of our five drivers to profitable growth and against the backdrop of a favorable economy and regulatory environment. As we stated in the past, our five drivers to build long-term sustainable growth are, one, being a low cost producer; two, being a leader in the markets in which we compete; three, moving up the value chain to expand our capabilities for value-appreciative customers; four, expanding our channels to market; and five, achieving commercial excellence to complement our operational strength. The strength of the U.S. economy was a major driver of our continued financial and operational success. Economic fundamentals began improving in the middle of 2017, and that trend has continued into this year. The economy is being energized by tax and regulatory reform, and by strength in the global energy markets where the U.S. has become a major producer and exporter. These combined factors, a competitive U.S. corporate tax rate, favorable regulatory environment and strong U.S. energy production are the keys to the current strong business environment for Nucor. With U.S. economic strength driving domestic steel demand, 22 of the 24 markets we serve are seeing increased or stable demand. The U.S. steel market is also benefiting from a reduction in unfairly traded imports entering our country, as a result of years of successful trade cases and the broad-based tariffs imposed under Section 232. Imports are down more than 7% through the first half of 2018. With all tariffs going into effect in June, we expect this trend to continue. The tariffs send a clear message that the U.S. is done asking nicely for compliance with the rules of trade and is serious about demanding changes in the trade practices of other countries. The reduction in dumped and illegally subsidized steel should allow steel prices to return to their fair levels that are based upon market forces of supply and demand. Importantly, however, I want to note that Nucor’s strong performance is not solely due to pricing environment. Increased capacity utilization also acted as a driver of our earnings strength this quarter. Higher utilization rates are essential for the long-term sustainability of the American steel industry. As you’re aware, Nucor has spent years positioning itself to take advantage of an upturn in the steel market. We have increased our workforce by 18% and invested $8 billion since the last cyclical peak in 2008. By investing in our people and our operations, we have made Nucor an even stronger business. We are now capitalizing on those investments to move up the value chain and profitably grow the Company. Our financial performance last year and during the first half of this year are proof that our long-term strategy of pursuing our five drivers to profitable growth is working. In the strong market, Nucor remains focused on continuing to successfully execute this discipline strategy. We are currently implementing eight exciting growth initiatives, totaling more than $1.5 billion. Four of those investments are in the long products and total about $750 million. The projects include the rolling mill modernization at our Ohio rebar mill, MBQ expansion at our Illinois mill, and two rebar micro mills in Missouri and Florida. Site preparation is underway for the micro mill in Missouri. And we have already begun to hire team mates. The other four projects are in our sheet mill group and total approximately $780 million. These projects include a new galvanizing line at Gallatin, the specialty cold rolling mill and additional galvanizing line in Arkansas, and our joint venture with JFE Steel to build a galvanizing line in Mexico, which will serve the automotive market in that country. Completion dates for these eight projects range from 2019 through 2021. We are clearly not finished growing Nucor’s long-term earnings power, and we look forward to extending the Company’s long track record of sustainable shareholder value-creation through these high-return organic investments. Jim Frias will now provide more specific detail about our second quarter performance and financial position. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, John, and good afternoon. Our second quarter 2018 earnings represent a substantial increase over our first quarter earnings of $1.10 per diluted share. As John noted, our improved earnings were the result of much stronger market conditions and our team’s ability to deliver attractive returns on the significant investments Nucor made during the industry downturn. All three of our segments increased their profitability compared to the first quarter and last year’s second quarter. Our steel mill segment achieved strong earnings growth across all mill product groups, sheet, plate, rebar, merchant bar, engineered bars and beams. Profit growth at our downstream steel products segment was highlighted by the performance of our recently acquired tubular operations, serving the hollow structural sections and electrical conduit markets. Our raw material segment realized attractive profit contributions from our DJJ scrap business as well as both of our DRI facilities. Nucor is continuing to aggressively invest in long-term, job-creating, profitable growth. Full-year 2018 capital spending is estimated to be approximately $1 billion. This is a significant increase from 2017 capital spending of $450 million. Approximately two-thirds of our planned 2018 capital expenditures are for expansion, product improvement, and cost savings projects with the remaining one-third for maintenance purposes. As we invest in our multiple growth platforms, Nucor is also rewarding shareholders with meaningful returns of capital. In the first half of 2018, the Company returned more than $400 million to shareholders via cash dividends of about $240 million and share repurchases of about $170 million. Capital returns in the first half of 2018 are consistent with our target to return to shareholders a minimum of 40% of our through the cycle earnings. Two noteworthy facts provide evidence of Nucor’s long-term record as an effective steward of our shareholders’ valuable capital. First, 2018 marks Nucor’s 45th consecutive year of increased regular or base dividends. Second, the average cost of Nucor’s nearly 89 million shares of treasury stock repurchased life-to-date is less than $29 per share. That includes the just under 2.7 million shares repurchased in the first half of 2018. In April, Nucor issued $500 million of 10-year notes at an interest rate of 3.95% and $500 million of 30-year notes at an interest rate of 4.4%. Combined with the December 2017 maturity of $600 million of 5.75% notes and the June 2018 maturity of $500 million of 5.85% notes, we lowered the weighted average fixed coupon rate of our long-term debt to 4.74% and lengthened weighted average maturity to just over 15 years. Nucor’s financial position and cash generation remain strong. With total debt outstanding of $4.3 billion, our gross debt to capital ratio was 31% at the end of the second quarter of 2018. Nucor’s strong liquidity position includes our cash holdings of $1.5 billion and our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The facility’s maturity was extended in the second quarter to April of 2023. First half of 2018 cash provided by operating activities was very robust at approximately $870 million. Nucor’s strong cash generation was achieved while at the same time funding the increased working capital requirements of a cyclical upturn. Based on strong market fundamentals and discussions with our customers, we believe there is sustainable strength in steel end-use markets. Our steel mill and steel product backlogs are robust and have trended upward since the beginning of the year. Earnings in third quarter 2018 are expected to further improve compared to the second quarter of 2018. The performance of the steel mill segment is expected to remain strong in the third quarter of 2018 with margin expansion expected primarily at our sheet and plate mills. We expect the third quarter performance of our steel products segment to be similar to the second quarter of 2018. The performance of our raw material segment is expected to decrease in third quarter 2018 due to margin compression. Nucor’s focus remains on delivering higher returns on our invested capital by taking care of our customers. Thank you for your interest in our Company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. I’d like to conclude with a brief comment on international trade. It is our view that the subject needs to be considered with a long-term perspective. What will happen to our great country, if we continue to operate with a massive trade imbalance that is over $560 billion and growing? We agree with the administration’s efforts to address this issue. We believe these efforts will lead to a freer, fairer trade that will benefit manufacturers, our customers and American workers by creating a stronger domestic economy. I want to thank all of our 25,000 teammates across Nucor for seizing the opportunities the strong market is provided. The leadership team in Charlotte appreciates the hard work you do every day to build a safer and more profitable Nucor. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will go first to Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Good afternoon, guys. My first question is just around the capital return, so, the minimum 40% of the net income. Can you just comment a little on buybacks versus supplementary dividends that are possible into the end of the year and maybe into 2019?
Jim Frias:
Yes. Thanks. This is Jim Frias, I will answer that question. We work very closely with our Board of Directors to develop a structure about how we think about returns to shareholders. And you know that one of the items we use, which is the income statement trigger. We want to return a minimum of 40% of earnings to shareholders. But, we also use the balance sheet as a guideline, because we’re very committed to a strong investment grade credit rating. So, we look at the -- we have a range, we haven’t published the debt-to-cap, but should be obvious, based on the idea that we want to maintain a strong investment grade rating. If you look at our net-debt-to-cap position, and if our net-debt-to-cap is too low, we would probably do more return to shareholders; if we got too high, we might throttle things back. But, right now, we’re in a place where we can easily return the full 40% to shareholders. Secondly, when we choose between dividends and share repurchases, we use an intrinsic value miles that again we show the Board on a regular basis, so we project what the value of the company is based on our forecasted earnings. And when the stock is attractive, we prefer to buy back the stock versus dividends. If we think the stock is at a pricey level, we might do more supplemental dividends.
John Ferriola:
This is John. The only thing I’d add to that is of course our first priority will remain investing for profitable growth of our Company.
Chris Terry:
And then, just on your commentary around the sheets and plates market and that helping the steel mill segment. Can you just talk specifically about the long products? If you look at the year-to-date, long product imports stand about 20% versus a 5% decline in sheets. How do you think about the performance of the bar and structural mills going forward?
John Ferriola:
Well, long products has been strong in the second quarter, as we mentioned in the script. Frankly plates and sheets were doing better, but we certainly were pleased with our long products performance during the quarter. We did see imports down a little bit but we also see construction going up a little bit. And that served us well in our long products, particularly in the rebar markets.
Chris Terry:
Okay. And the last one for me, just on the raw materials segment. Can you just talk through the progress, Louisiana DRI plant? And what impacts from the DRI outage is considered within the guidance that you’ve mentioned coming out for 3Q?
John Ferriola:
Well, we have the outage baked into our guidance. And I’ll give you just a quick update on the shutdown. As I mentioned on our last call, this was planned shutdown to perform preventive and predictive maintenance on the facility, scheduled to be down for about 30 days. And we are scheduled to produce [prime] [ph] DRI sometime tomorrow. The vessel is heated, it’s loaded, and we are building pressure in it now. So, as of right now, it looks pretty good for a start-up, successful start-up for producing [prime] [ph] DRI tomorrow sometime during the day.
Operator:
We will hear next from Matthew Korn with Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Korn:
So, I had a couple of questions on the product side. We are coming up in about two years since you assembled the tubular division. You are now running at above 1.1 million annual run rate. How has that division in particular performed relative to your expectations, financial, operational efficiency, overall cost effect across the Nucor platform? Then, where can it go from here? Can you get to 1.2, 1.3 million tons or higher? Then, finally, do you see any cannibalization from your other products? Now, with HSS demand grows. Does that have any effect on what you are selling or how you are selling structural beams or elsewhere?
John Ferriola:
Okay. Great, great, great, yes and no. Okay. Let me elaborate just a little bit on that. The performance of the tubular group has been outstanding. Frankly, it did surpass our expectations. We knew it would be a good acquisition. We knew based on their culture, they would fit well into the organization. We knew that there would be value in the synergies that were going across our sheet group. We knew that it would be profitable standing on its own. And all of those things came to fruition. The impact on our sheet business has been great. And I’d add this. One of the concerns we had as we entered into this was that we might lose some of business from competitors to our existing tubular [indiscernible], some other tubular products that we -- excuse me, customers that we currently sell to. What’s actually happened is our business with the competitors has actually increased. And I think it’s a function of working with sheet group and our tubular group. We’ve been able to fine-tune and tweak the chemistries that we produced in our steel. And we’ve learned how to produce steel that runs more efficiently and effectively in the tubular business. So, on all of those fronts, and it’s been a homerun. We’ve been really, really pleased with it. We are on track this year. We think there we will do little bit more than last year, and that last year was somewhere around 900,000 tons; our forecast for this year is about 1.1, 1.2 million tons. And we really haven’t seen a negative impact on any of our other construction or structurally related products. If anything, you would -- with the latest mill that we’re putting in to our tubular division that will be working more closely with our skyline division. We expect that to be another synergy that will bring value to both tubular and to our skyline business.
Matthew Korn:
Got it. Thanks, John. I appreciate the elaboration. Following up from that, what does that opportunity set for any acquisitions look like for you today, as you’re thinking about capital allocation? And after putting together tubular, your focus has been on investment, as you elaborated really in the call on Arkansas and micro mills, you think those assets taken out, [indiscernible]. Is there anything out there that’s really interesting in steel-making, is there another Gallatin out there that we’re overlooking?
John Ferriola:
We don’t look at just steel-making. As you know, we look at all of our product groups, plus all of our businesses. And yes, there is nothing specific that I want to speak to, but we’re keeping our eye on all opportunities and we’ll respond when the appropriate opportunity becomes available at the appropriate price that fits well into our organization.
Operator:
We’ll hear next from Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Couple of quick questions today. First on intersegment eliminations, you saw very significant increase quarter-over-quarter, I believe in the last quarter you guided to in fact decrease in Q2. Can you just help us explain, help us sort of understand just why was that increase in pricing guidance, how is the trend moving forward?
Jim Frias:
This is Jim Frias, I will answer that. Elims went up by roughly a $133 million in the second quarter compared to first quarter. And there is four major things that make that up. One is actual intercompany inventory revaluation process, now I’ll save that for last because that’s probably the most significant piece. Then, there is this compensation piece that’s related to stock - stock units and options. There is a June 1 grant date for those that our Board authorizes. And so, therefore, there’s a spike in the second quarter every year. So, in the first quarter, those expenses were about $9 million and in the second quarter they were closer to $37 million. So, that increased by about $28 million quarter over quarter; it will go back to a more normal run rate for the balance of the year. So, this is an event that happens every second quarter. We get a spike related to that stock compensation. And then, profit sharing, we think 10% of our pretax profits is set aside for teammates. That expense increased, basically doubled from $47 million to $48 million, almost $49 million in second quarter. Interest expense is another piece. Interest expense is actually down; it went from just under $36 million, down to $28 million. So, we saved about $7 million there. But then, the inventory valuation piece increased by $63 million, went from $49 million to more than $112 million. And as we look at that, the things that affected are the volume of inventory and the margin per ton of inventory. So, the volume we thought was going to stay flat; it went up by roughly 9%. We have got just over 7.6 million tons of inventory in the Company and that includes DRI, scrap and steel. And we tracked the DRI, not just to the steel mills but all the way to the finished products that have the DRI and scrap embedded in them. So, there is an increasing volume of 9% that happened. And then, secondly, margins improved by about 28% in the second quarter. So going forward, the question is will volumes change. We would think volumes will stay really flat, relatively flat in the third quarter. We think that they reached a fairly close to run rate level. And margins might go up a little bit but not nearly the same pace. So, we wouldn’t expect to see the same kind of a number. So, we would expect that intercompany or that inventory elims piece to be lower in Q3 than Q2. We are not going to give an absolute number because it really depends on some variables that are hard to predict. But, our gut feel is it’s going to be lower because of those factors. Does that help?
Seth Rosenfeld:
Yes. That helps. Thank you. And one further question, please, on the plate market. Can you just give us a bit more color on how you characterize current demand and pricing trends looking ahead in second half of the year? Plate perhaps stands out as one of the products where there is not significant capacity growth, digging out by yourselves or any of your peers in the U.S. What do you think it would take to make plate attractive area to allocate capital?
John Ferriola:
Well, our plate business in the second quarter was very strong, frankly second only to our sheet business. Some of our volumes were off a little bit in second quarter, it was basically because of some operational issues that we had at our Hertford and at Tuscaloosa, mill. They were operational issues that we took care of and we’re back into -- back going steady now. In terms of capital, moving forward, we would see plate as one of the areas, like I said earlier that we would consider. Certainly it’s been a good business for us. It’s a cyclical business, probably one of our most cyclical businesses. And over the long-term it’s been good for us. If the right opportunities came along, we would certainly be willing to invest in growing plate. One of the things that we hold out a lot of hope for, both our structural and our plate business is the infrastructure that we need to see some form of an infrastructure bill. While we are pretty confident we won’t see it this year, we do hope that next year, we’ll find Washington working together in a way that could bring a much needed infrastructure bill and it’s going to have to be put significantly to deal with the crumbling infrastructure that we have today. So, we think that as infrastructure continues to -- beyond on the horizon, construction continues to improve, plate and structural see a better demand.
Operator:
We will hear now from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
I want to I guess beat this dead horse on capital allocation because as you point out is your second best quarter ever. You expect very strong demand, continuing second highest steel prices in the U.S. history at least for some products. So, I understand you want to stay investment grade. But if you continue on this track of generating the amount of free cash flow you did, you would be at well over 2 billion annually, right, just to extrapolate. So, I just want to understand if you look historically at your pattern and very strong earnings environment, you did buy back a lot of shares if we look back like 2007. Is that a good playbook for how you’re thinking about allocating capital? I mean, is it possible that you do something similar as what you did then? Are you still contemplating special dividends as a tactic as you did then, if you could just elaborate a little more?
John Ferriola:
I’m going to reiterate what I said a little bit earlier and that is that look, our first priority is profitable growth of our Company. So, we’re going to continue to look for opportunities to profitably grow Company. We think that there might be some out there. We’re going to continue to look at all of them that come available. If at the end of the day, we’re in a position where we do reach that nice round number of 2 billion that you threw out there and there isn’t anything out on the horizon that we think would result in profitable growth of our company, then we will do what we always say we will do. We’ll return the valuable capital to our shareholders. Right now, I think it’s a case of we’re keeping our powder a little bit dry, still a little early. Remember that, one of the great advantages we have in having such a strong balance sheet was the ability to act quickly when opportunities do come up. And I would point to, the tubular acquisition. We have an opportunity to grow the company profitability with three acquisition in a fairly short period of time. To do that, we have to have almost $1 billion in cash. And we’re -- because of our strong position and because of our conservative financial practices, we had $1 billion. Bear in mind that those three acquisitions were done over a period of about six or eight weeks. So, for us to be very quick -- obviously, the sellers like it when they deal with us and they know that we have the cash to provide and we can tell it’s a cash deal. So, we want to keep a strong balance sheet so that when those opportunities come up, we can act quickly and decisively. Now, if they don’t come up, now we fall back on returning it to our shareholders. And then, as Jim mentioned earlier, we’ll do an evaluation. If it makes more sense to do it with dividends, we will do with dividends; if we think that stock price is at a value where it creates more value by repurchasing shares, then we will repurchase shares. I don’t know how much more we can go into helping you beat that dead horse. But really that’s our view.
Timna Tanners:
I thought I would try, fair enough. The other question I wanted ask is…
John Ferriola:
We appreciate you trying. We like that.
Timna Tanners:
You’re close to the White House and your talks with them, there’s been a bit more coming out, not just Section 232 but antidumping case of steel content. Can you give us your latest taste of the further types of cases that we might see? Do you think that there is going to be more such cases with steel content and steel products coming into the U.S that would be targeted by these types of cases?
John Ferriola:
We always are looking at that and we’re not going to stop prosecuting case because of 232 or any other form of comprehensive transaction. We recognize that when you have a trade case that we’re successful in prosecuting, that’s a minimum of five years with the ability to do a sunset review to extent it maybe another five years. So, that’s a very long-term success. So, we’re going to continue to looking at them. There are couple. I’m not going to get into specifics. But I will tell you there are couple of products that we’re all looking at right now. We believe they are good, solid cases. And if we prosecute them, we will be successful in those cases. I will point out that we’ve got a great track record -- and I mean the industry, I’m not speaking exclusively of Nucor, but the industry has got incredible track. If I have the numbers right, I think it’s about 15 cases we prosecuted since around 2014, and we haven’t lost one. I mean, there might have been a couple of countries that was in the cases that got away. But as a general statement, we’ve been extremely successful in prosecuting the cases. That points to two things. It points to number one, the egregious nature of the violations that have been and in some cases still are occurring; and it points to the growing understanding by the ITC of the games that are being played as these violating countries continue to play the whack-a-mole game. So, we’re going to continue to do that. I will say on the 232, we continue to be strong advocates of the 232. We currently speak about whack-a-mole quite a bit. And the 232 provides a comprehensive trade remedy that eliminates that ability to go around with country and product substitution that drive us crazy, each case taking two years to prosecute. So, all-in-all, we’re very happy with tariffs, with the 232 action. We believe that the 232 is justified. We believe that the incredibly massive trade deficit needs to be addressed. And we think that trade -- 232 and tariffs will help trading partners come back to the table and come back and reach a more reasonable balanced trade agreement, which I think is good for the steel industry, it’s good for our customers and it’s good for the American workers.
Operator:
We’ll hear next from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
I wanted to drill down a little bit into the raw material division. The stated profits were better than what you did in all of 2017 in total. I think, it was odd considering that you have a DRI outage and there was -- ferrous prices started to level out on the scrap side. Should we think at all that the high eliminations, corporate eliminations that you had offset some of those obstacle surge in profits? It was just really, really strange to see that type of number in my model, and so I’m just trying to think through it.
John Ferriola:
Let me help you with that a little bit. There was a little bit of effect on what you mentioned. But frankly though, the largest effect would be our Louisiana facility. It’s been running very stable, it’s going well for the last 4, 5, 6 months. That’s been a big plus. I also have to give kudos and a call out of thanks to our DJ Joseph team. They have continued to improve the efficiency of their processing operations. They’ve reduced their costs and continue to do so over the last year and particularly over the last six months. They’ve done a fantastic job of becoming more efficient. We’ve also mentioned on the call a few times an initiative that we call the mill alignment program. And that is not only extra value to our steel mills, but have healthy efficiency of our DJ Joseph operations. And finally, our team in Trinidad, once again, every time we say they can’t push that any further and become any more profitable and effective and efficient, they seem to find a way to do that. Once again, over the last quarter, they’ve been a stellar performer and that has contributed the [indiscernible].
Phil Gibbs:
Okay. John, as you look into the third quarter, I think you did mention some gross margin pressures coming in that division. And as we look at it, we’ve seen non-ferrous prices decline, particularly for copper, and we’re starting to see some pretty staggering declines in shutter byproduct pricing, particularly in China. Are those things the biggest driver to some of the margin weakness relative to Q2 you are talking about?
John Ferriola:
I’d say that they’re the biggest factor. Craig, do you want to add anything to that?
Craig Feldman:
Yes. I’d say that’s probably the only headwind we see right now is China and pretty well publicized. They have made a statement that they are going to eliminate their purchase of a lot of scrap from 2020, which we’ve been working on that for quite some time. So, it was not a surprise to us. We have been accelerating our attempt to go to furnace ready aluminum products and non-ferrous products I’d say.
Operator:
From Morgan Stanley, we will move next to Piyush Sood.
Piyush Sood:
A couple of question for me. We heard some comments in the AMM conference on the second DRI plant at Louisiana, and I think a flat roll mill on the West Coast. Could you talk a little bit more about them?
John Ferriola:
That was me. I was responding to a question that whether we would have any interest in being on the West Coast and whether or not I thought that DRI was a long-term, sustainable and valuable asset. So, yes, I do think that -- I’ll start with DRI. I do believe, as I have said many times, I think as the time goes on because of the things that’s talked about many times, recycling of prime scrap, reduction of manufacturing in the United States. That prime scrap is going to continue to come under pressure and become less available. And we, Nucor, we are going to need more of it as we continue to move up the value chain, so our presence in ultra-high strength steels and automotive steels. So, yes, we are going to continue with these prime, virgin iron units for some time. And we have also talked in the past and will reiterate concerns about getting our pig iron from geopolitically unstable regions such as Brazil can be challenge but certainly Russia and the Ukraine. HBI coming out of Venezuela is not the most stable country in the world. So, we see a need to make sure that we can take care of our needs of virgin iron units, so that we can continue to move up the value chain. So, at some point, we will make an evaluation on the second DRI plant. If we feel that that’s necessary, as mentioned in the past that we have all of the infrastructure in place to expand to the second facility and we will consider that at the right time. As far as the West Coast goes, the question really surrounded -- was surrounding cash. And we were talking about cash at the time and in relevance to the West Coast. I mentioned that that would be a good location for our cash, if we haven -- did want to get out to the West Coast because of the limited market and the limited production from the cash to facility. At this time, there are no plans or anything moving out to the West Coast.
Piyush Sood:
And second question, as the U.S. has put Section 232 tariffs, some other counties have retaliated with their own tariffs. So, how you are thinking about your exports in the coming months? Do you see any concern in U.S.?
John Ferriola:
Well, we’ve done analysis and there will be some impact but it won’t be major. One of the things that you have to recall is that particularly if you look at our rebar business, it will be limited to us what we can send out into Canada which is actually shipping into Canada. But remember, rebar will not be coming into the country from other countries also. So, we actually see it as a net zero situation. In fact, for us, we will be able to serve regional markets a little bit better with scrap with -- with rebar that we’ve been selling [ph] out of this country. And remember too that we have our micro mills that will be coming up over the next year or two that will help us speed what we believe will be an increased demand locally and domestically for rebar. So, no, we all see a major impact at our plant in galv line in Mexico. I hope you got a question about that but that will be serving the automotive market in Mexico. So, we don’t see a negative impact on that. So, overall, we will have some impact. It won’t be major. We believe that at the end of the day, there will be net gain for the steel I general and frankly to the United States’ economy and to our Company as a result of what’s happening in trade.
Operator:
We’ll hear now from Alex Hacking with Citi.
Alex Hacking:
So, you had a very good strong quarter on volumes. Are you sensing any increase in inventory levels at your customers, or is this simply a reflection of strong underlying demand and lower imports? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
No, actually I was just was looking at service center inventories this morning. And thankfully, there are all running extremely low, somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.2 to 2.3. And that’s a relatively low number. We see a small uptick in some of the merchant product that’s been very small. And you also have to look at the shipments. And the service center shipments have been up pretty significantly over the quarter or so, that helps the inventory situation. And talking to our customers, I would say that there certainly is an abundance of inventory on our customers side, OEMs, they’re running pretty lean, but we are filling our commitments and making sure that they get steel that they need to produce their products and keep their customers happy.
Alex Hacking:
Thanks for the color. And I’m assuming with the changes on import and Section 232 that you’re having some people knocking on your door that we’re new or haven’t knocked on your door for while looking for steel. I guess, are you seeing a lot of new customers coming through? Is it a trickle or is it more of a flood in terms of looking for steel companies that haven’t come around in a while? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
I guess I would say somewhere between the trickle and the flood. Obviously, we’re taking care of our long-term royal customers and that’s happening. We’ve seen a notable increase in their request for steel and we’ve been able to meet the request. We have had some new customers come to the door; when possible we take care of those customers. One of the things that we look for when we consider allocating some of our times to those new customers is just how strategic those customers are, what products are they in, do they support our desire and strategic plan to move into the higher value products. So, we take a look at lot of factors. But I would say, A, first, we take care of our long-term loyal customers; secondly, we have been helping our customers who’ve been new to us, whenever we can and particularly when they’ve been strategic to our long-term marketing strategy.
Operator:
And at this time, for closing remarks, I would like to turn things back to John Ferriola.
John Ferriola:
So, let me close by saying thanks to our customers. We appreciate the opportunity to talking with you and to run your business every day. And Nucor’s always ready to join with you to seize new opportunities. And thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your long-term and ongoing confidence in our team. And finally, to my Nucor teammates, let’s keep winning together. Thank you for what you do for Nucor every day. And most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor. Have a good day.
Operator:
Again, that will conclude today’s conference. Thank you all for joining us.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO, and President James Frias - CFO and EVP Chad Utermark - EVP, Fabricated Construction Products
Analysts:
Martin Englert - Jefferies Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Novid Rassouli - Cowen and Company Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2018 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during the conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The word we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes that -- believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there are -- there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties related to these forward-looking statements may be found in the Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of the date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. Joining me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's Executive team; Jim Darsey, responsible for Raw Materials; Jim Frias, our Chief Financial Officer; Ladd Hall, responsible for Sheet and Tubular Products; Ray Napolitan, responsible for Engineered Bar Products; Joe Stratman, our Chief Digital Officer; Dave Sumoski, responsible for Merchant Bar and Rebar Products; Leon Topalian, responsible for Beam and Plate Products; and Chad Utermark, responsible for Fabricated Construction Products. Earlier this week, Jim Darsey announced his plans to retire from Nucor on June 9th after 39 years of outstanding service to Nucor. Jim has been an exceptional leader. He has made strong contributions in each of our three major businesses
James Frias:
Thanks John. Nucor reported first quarter of 2018 earnings of $1.10 per diluted share. As indicated in our guidance last month, first quarter results included an expense of $0.07 per diluted share related to the write-off of certain deferred tax assets. Earnings momentum accelerated during the first quarter, especially at our Steelmaking Operations with significant metal margin expansion during the month of March. This momentum was partially offset or deferred by the timing impact of Nucor's significant vertical integration. Comparing the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2017, intercompany inventory eliminations resulted in an adverse swing of about $70 million on Nucor's pretax profits. Our strong improvement in first quarter earnings before taxes from the fourth quarter highlighted the value we derive from Nucor's product breadth. In addition to significantly higher quarter-over-quarter profitability at our sheet mills, strong gains were achieved by a large percentage of our broad portfolio, including engineered bar, merchant bar and rebar, structural steel, plate steel, tubular products, cold finish bar and our raw materials businesses. Our steel mills benefited from higher levels of capacity utilization and significant margin expansion. Earnings of the raw materials segment increased on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, driven by improvements at both our scrap operations and our DRI production facilities. Here are some noteworthy raw materials performance highlights
John Ferriola:
Thanks Jim. Nucor's disciplined strategy of profitable growth is working. Our 2017 earnings were Nucor's highest annual earnings since the cyclical peak year of 2008. That positive momentum has carried over into 2018, as evidenced by our strong first quarter earnings and a bullish second quarter outlook. We are seeing stronger demand throughout the U.S. economy. Recent tax and regulatory reforms have reduced uncertainty and improved confidence. As a result, we are seeing a robust pipeline of projects and strong overall business activity. 21 of the 24 end-use markets served by Nucor are experiencing stable to improving demand. End markets that are particularly important to Nucor are especially strong in 2018, including energy, most of the construction markets Nucor serves and heavy equipment. With this improved demand, the Nucor team is only beginning to realize the significant pent-up earnings power from investments made during the economic downturn. As Jim just noted, Nucor invested more than $8 billion over the nine-year period running from 2009 through 2017. Here is just one example of how our investments are paying off. Nucor Tubular Products, acquired in late 2016 and early 2017, continues to generate strong volume and better than expected earnings. Our tubular and sheet mill teammates are working together very effectively to achieve synergies that allow Nucor to better serve customers in the construction market with our broader product offerings. The tubular team has embraced Nucor's pay-for-performance system and set first quarter production records. At the same time, our sheet mills continue to benefit from profitable baseload tons from the Nucor tubular facilities. Nucor's sheet mill shipments to this value-added channel to market are expected to grow from 720,000 tons in 2017 to more than 1 million tons in 2018. With these improvements in market demand, Nucor is primed and ready to create increased value for our shareholders. We are doing it by leveraging our significant product offerings and an unrelenting focus on achieving commercial excellence in taking care of our customers. While reviewing Nucor's performance in 2017 and early 2018, it is important to examine the steel industry environment in which we are achieving strong volume and earnings growth. Specifically, illegally traded imports remain a very serious and yet to be resolved challenge. Finished steel imports in 2017 captured 27% of the U.S. market. In the first quarter, they remained at relatively high levels, estimated to be 25% of market share. Nucor will continue to fight aggressively for free and fair trade. The Nucor team continues to develop attractive opportunities for profitable growth. Currently, we are executing seven exciting growth initiatives that total about $1.3 billion in invested capital. Three of the projects are in our sheet business, a $230 million specialty cold-rolling facility at our Arkansas sheet mill with about 500,000 tons of annual capacity and scheduled for start-up in the first half of 2019. It will greatly expand our capabilities to serve the light-weighting needs of the automotive market. A $176 million hot band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill with 500,000 tons of estimated annual capacity and set for start-up in the first half of 2019. It will expand our share of the Midwest coated sheet market and support further expansion into automotive products. A $270 million sheet galvanizing facility in Mexico being constructed with our joint venture partner, JFE Steel, with approximately 400,000 tons of annual capacity and on-track for a production start in the second half of 2019. It is centrally located to serve Mexico's growing automotive market and will obtain half of its substrate from our Berkeley sheet mill. The other four of these projects are in our long products business. An $85 million modernization of the rolling mill at our Ohio rebar mill with about 400,000 tons of annual capacity and completion expected in the first half of 2019. This project enhances our low-cost producer and market leadership position in the Ohio market. A $180 million merchant bar rolling facility at our Illinois bar mill with 500,000 tons of estimated annual capacity and a production start date expected in late 2019. We will benefit on multiple logistical advantages and will displace tons supplied by competitors outside the region. A $250 million rebar micro mill outside of Kansas City, Missouri with about 350,000 tons of annual capacity and a start-up set for late 2019. A $240 million rebar micro mill in Central Florida with 350,000 tons of estimated annual capacity and a start-up expected in the first half of 2020. These micro mills are also a logistics play that expands Nucor market leadership and a low-cost producer position in the rebar business. For a company such as Nucor, with our unique position of strength and our proven ability to execute profitable growth strategies, this is a time of great opportunity. Our team is both ready and eager to demonstrate the pent-up earnings power that we have built into our company during our industry's downturn. As always, the more than 25,000 men and women of Nucor are the reason that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Nucor's senior leadership team in Charlotte would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for working together to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. Thank you. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Martin Englert with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Martin Englert:
Hi, good afternoon everyone and congratulations on the strong results.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you.
Martin Englert:
There was a notable improvement within the raw materials segment of profitability and you touched on this in the release and then some of your commentary. But can you discuss what's changed at the Louisiana DRI facility and what incremental work you have planned there?
John Ferriola:
Yes, I'd be happy to. The improvement in the raw materials segment was twofold. D. J. Joseph team did a good job during the first quarter. They contributed to the good results in the first quarter, so we thank them for all that hard work. And in Louisiana, they had a very good quarter in terms of production and shipments and profit. It's the second-best quarter ever. So, good work and congratulations and thanks to the team there. In terms of what are we doing, it's really a focus -- and I mentioned it briefly in terms of people, process and equipment and it's a focus on making sure -- to focus on making sure that we take care of the details that we know how to take care of on a steel plant and on an iron plant. And that's focusing on things like preventive maintenance, taking care of the equipment the way we should be taking care of the equipment and training. Training the teammates to make sure that they're ready for the -- all of the situations that can occur in the DRI facility and that's paid big dividends. We are still doing a detailed examination, investigation into the equipment and we're not ready to talk about what modifications we'll have to make to the equipment in that facility right now. We should be ready maybe by the next fall, sometime around the middle of the year, towards the end of the year. We'll have completed the engineering study and we can talk to you more about the equipment changes or modifications that we need to make. But we're pleased with what the team is doing. I will point out that I mentioned the focus on preventive maintenance. And in the second quarter, around July -- June 18, I think is the exact date, we will be taking the facility down for 30 days. This is a practice that we've done forever in Trinidad and it's taken down to perform the annual preventive maintenance so that we can ensure greater reliability for the rest of the year when we're running. So, that will be taking place in the second quarter. And it's part of our renewed focus on people, process and maintaining the equipment in the way that it should be maintained.
Martin Englert:
Thanks for all the detail there. Within the downstream steel products segment, can you discuss some of the margin trends that you're seeing maybe on a more granular level such as rebar fabrication given the rising substrate cost?
John Ferriola:
Well, Chad, I'll let you start with that. And Chad is in charge of our downstream businesses. So, Chad, why don't you take first shot at that?
Chad Utermark:
Yes. Thanks John. Our backlogs on our downstream fabricated businesses remain very healthy. They are growing. We continue to see strong end-use demand across our portfolio of downstream products. Year-over-year quotes, orders and backlogs are up significantly. Yes, we have experienced some margin compression resulting from the recent increase in steel pricing. However, each of our downstream fabricated businesses are responsible for selling value and being profitable. So, overall, our current backlog remains profitable in this current steel pricing environment.
Martin Englert:
Okay, excellent. Thanks for the detail.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Curt Woodworth:
Yes, good afternoon everyone.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Curt Woodworth:
Maybe to start, John, on the rebar expansion. So, 700,000 tons. I think on my numbers, it's about 7% addition to U.S. supply. But by the same vein, imports were down over a million tons annualized the last four months. The AISI data is running up, I think, close to 900,000 on domestic shipment recovery. So, can you talk to the decision around doing two micro mills, say, instead of one? How do you see Turkey and kind of exemption risk playing into that? Was 232 part of your thought process at all in terms of allocating more capital to rebar? And can you comment on what your rebar utilization rate was this quarter?
John Ferriola:
Well, let me start. There are several questions in there, but let me start by talking in general about the strategy that surrounded the decision to build two micro mills. I mentioned this in the last call, but it's all began with a detailed market study and a market analysis that we did both of rebar and merchant product throughout the United States and the conclusion that we came to was twofold. Number one, we recognized that we didn't have all of our production in the right locations. So, we had to do a little bit of rationalization, a little bit of switching some of our products and some of the locations in which we produce that product so that we could better serve the local markets surrounding those facilities and take advantage of logistical costs. And when we did that, we realized that they gave us an opportunity in two areas, one in Florida and one in Missouri, by near the Sedalia area, where we saw pockets of market demand for rebar that were currently being served by competitors outside that market. So, when we looked at this, we said there's three things we are looking to accomplish and we believe we will accomplish when we start up those facilities. Number one, obviously, we're going to be adding to our footprint and we give better coverage to our customers on a national footprint basis. Number two; it's a better rationalization of our mills. We'll be producing the products at the mill most appropriate to produce it from a logistics perspective and from a scrap availability perspective. And then number three, specific to those two micro mills, being located in regions where currently the market is being served by competitors outside the local region and in areas where we have a good supply of scrap that's under our control through the David J. Joseph Company. So, we expect to have a significant logistical advantage both on the scrap side and on the shipment to the customer side. So, that was a strategy behind the decision to go with building the two micro mills. Now certainly, the fact that we have -- still have confidence that 232 will have an impact on the level of imports of rebar coming into the country that certainly plays into it. That gives us a little bit level -- additional level of confidence in the success of these mills, but it was really driven by the point that I mentioned earlier.
James Frias:
John, one other thing that's maybe worth adding is the idea that Kankakee is going to shift its product mix with some of the investments we're making there to make more merchants. And right now, they're primarily a rebar mill. So, while we're adding rebar in one place, we're taking spring bar out in another.
John Ferriola:
And that plays to what we've talked about. We're really doing a study and taking a look at making sure that we produce the products that the market demands in the area that they are being produced. So, I'd tell you, we did -- I applaud our teams on both the rebar and the merchant side. They did a great job on the market analysis and I'm confident that we're going to be in a much better position to serve the market and improve our margins at the same time.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up with regards to -- the comment that metal spread, the exit rate. Obviously, 1Q is significantly higher than the average or where you started. Can you give us a sense on potential upside to metal spreads or maybe where the March level was versus the quarter, so we can get a better sense for how it could look 2Q? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Well, as we went through the first quarter, we were still seeing the price of scrap increasing and we -- and when you look at the rate in which the scrap price was increasing during the first quarter and at the same time, the slower rate that the CRU was advancing as pricing was moving up, you saw some of the margins begin to improve towards the end of the quarter. We think scrap now has pretty much stabilized as we look at scrap going forward. We see it, particularly on the obsolete side, maybe down a little bit, but certainly stabilized. On the prime side, probably more stable. Not too much down movement, but stable. And we believe that based upon our contracts, as we look forward into the second quarter, we see pricing continuing to improve on our contract business and on our spot business. With stable scrap pricing and increasing selling price, we should see margin expansion as we move into the second quarter.
Curt Woodworth:
Understood. Thanks guys.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
Hey good afternoon everyone.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon Timna.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to delve into a little bit further, the build-out of galvanized and I know maybe it's a bit -- that's been a longer-term philosophy and plan, but the hot-rolled market is particularly tight and the galvanized premiums have been coming down. Who supplies hot-rolled when Nucor ships more into value-add? Is there not an opportunity for Nucor to also supply that market? So, I guess, that's one question about galvanized versus hot-rolled and that opportunity. But in line with that, just wondering, how do we think about Nucor's opportunity to take share in light of falling imports in the sheet market?
John Ferriola:
Okay. Well, let me start with the first question and you hit the question about galvanizing. We believe it's been a long-term strategy of ours to improve the value-added products out of our sheet business. And when you look at projects we've got going on today with the galv line in Mexico, the galv line at Gallatin and the cold mill at Hickman, value-added products coming out of our sheet mill will improve by about 10%. So, it'll go somewhere -- today, it's somewhere in the neighborhood of about 37% value-added. That will go up to about 47%. We think that that's an important long-term strategy. You mentioned about the hot band. And certainly, as I've said before, we always think of our investments in terms of long-term. Yes, right now, hot band is strong. There's some pressure on hot band, so pricing looks good on hot band. But over the course of this -- of the cycle, we think value-added products always give us a little bit better margin. And as to your second question, which was about who's going to produce the hot band needed to galvanize if we move more of our product from hot banded to galvanized, that's an easy answer. We challenge our teams to produce more hot bands on the mills that we have, okay. And if we see an opportunity in the future, we'll take the appropriate actions and -- to meet the needs of the market through investments. So, we don't see that as an issue. So, we're confident in both of those things. One of the key things that I would mention that, again, when you look at hot band, cold-rolled, and galvanized is making sure that we maintain that diversity so that we have the flexibility to move as the market shifts. You know our business; it goes up and down in hot band, cold-rolled and galv. And we want to have the ability to produce the products that are needed, whatever the market -- the given market is at the given time. So, that's why we're moving in that direction.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, great. And then I want to shift gears and ask you a little bit about the balance sheet. I know over the years, you've held a really large cash position and this quarter is unusually light. Can you just talk to us about maybe your philosophy there? What's the minimum level of cash necessary in the balance sheet? Are you changing your view there? Certainly, there's a big inventory build, so maybe that was just temporary. But if you wouldn't mind expanding a bit on the balance sheet. Thanks.
James Frias:
Sure. I'll talk about that, Timna. We're constantly analyzing market conditions, our balance sheet and our future plans. We think of our minimum cash balance as being probably in the neighborhood of $500 million. So, we're not there. And of course, with our strong credit rating, we have a lot of flexibility on how we respond to cash needs.
Timna Tanners:
Can you comment on the inventory build then, perhaps? Is that just a seasonal phenomenon maybe with the rising price and--
James Frias:
Yes, that's a good question. Working capital, in general, for our business always goes up counter cyclically. So, when prices go up for scrap and prices go up for our selling prices, both inventories and receivables build, and we're seeing that right now. And of course, the opposite happens. So, if you looked at our free cash flow and our cash from operations, our cash from operations, particularly in 2015, when energy prices collapsed and the sheet market faced more challenging times, again, that number was $2 billion of cash from operations. So, right now, in an up cycle, working capital is using more cash. That's just kind of common.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, makes sense. Thanks again.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Novid Rassouli with Cowen and Company. please go ahead.
Novid Rassouli:
Hey guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I'm just wondering if you can discuss your expectations for May imports given the Section 232 exemption is set to expire on May 1st. Obviously, those would be imports coming in or being licensed two to three months ago. So, arguably, we could see a steep drop-off given the lack of clarity. Just wanted to get your guys thoughts around that.
John Ferriola:
Well, there certainly is a lack of clarity. There's no doubt about that. And it's tough to answer that question without knowing exactly what's going to happen. So, let me tell you what we certainly hope and what we expect to happen given the President's commitments to our industry. Number one, we need and we expect May 1st to be a firm date. There needs to be no more delays, no more extensions on this. And it needs to be where -- he's promised that if we can't come to some reasonable renegotiated agreements, then we hold firm with a 25% tariff applied to the countries that have not been exempted. But we hope that is the case. It's hard to predict what's going to happen with the imports. Hopefully, as I said, we -- March -- the May -- excuse me, the May 1st day is firm. And then we would expect to see one or two things happen; either imports would go down or if the demand in our country necessitates it. Imports would continue, but they would continue at the fair market price having paid the 25% tariff. So, one of the things that I hear a lot of about and is concerned about is shortage of steel in the future after the May 1st date. And I can assure you, there's going to be no shortage. There's a tightness in the marketplace certainly. That's a result of demand improvement. The economy is better. Demand is up. Tax reform has contributed to that. The regulation has contributed to that. And to some extent, the partial implementation of the 232 has contributed to that. But the result -- the bottom line is demand has gone up. If steel needs to come into the country, it will come in. People will pay the tariff, and they'll bring the product in, and they'll bring it in a fair price. I like to say that I can -- I'm confident that there's not going to be a shortage of steel in this country. There might be a shortage of dumped or illegally traded steel in the country, but there will not be a shortage of steel.
Novid Rassouli:
So, is it safe to say that as far as conversation with your customers, nobody's panicking or trying to secure greater tonnage with you guys post May 1st?
John Ferriola:
No. We -- when we talk to our customers, they -- and we ask them quite frankly. Do you see a shortage or do you see a tightening? And the answer we get is, we see a tightening. And as I mentioned, the tightening is a result of a lot of things. But primarily, demand is up. I would point to when you look at our utilization rates last year and the first quarter of last year, they were already fairly high. And when you look at the utilization rates in the first quarter of this year, it's a little bit higher, a couple of percentage points, three or four percentage points higher. So, our customers have confidence on our ability to supply them, and we won't let them down.
Novid Rassouli:
Got it. And just one more follow-up if I may. On scrap, you had mentioned that you think that scrap has basically stabilized. But meanwhile, we've been seeing Turkish scrap prices drifting lower over the past month. U.S. scrap center was fairly bullish about a month ago and then the April increase in prices kind of fell short of expectations. Just wanted to see if the weakness abroad has been impacting the U.S. market at all or if you think it could?
John Ferriola:
Well, that certainly affects. Absolutely does impact the U.S. market. But I'd also add to it, we're coming into spring. The scrap flows a little bit better in the spring, but they're particularly obsolete. On the prime side, I've -- we'll take a little credit and brag on the fact that we think the DRI facility, running so well as it did in the first quarter, contributes to putting a cap on the prime scrap number. So, yes, the reduced exports and the improved flow of scrap in the United States because of spring, we think that's the primary reasons that the obsolete will be stable to down. And given the DRI and other alternative materials coming into the country today, prime scrap we think will be pretty stable going forward also.
Novid Rassouli:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our last question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Philip Gibbs:
Hey good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon Phil. How are you?
Philip Gibbs:
Good, well. How are you?
John Ferriola:
Very well. Thank you.
Philip Gibbs:
Good. Jim, you had mentioned I think in your script that there was a certain lag impact. I just wanted to be certain that I heard that correctly and what that may have been.
James Frias:
Regards to -- I don't remember having the words a lag impact. So, you must be reading something in between the lines. You're talking about the momentum of margins as we went through the quarter?
Philip Gibbs:
No, I thought you had mentioned something -- well, it was maybe along the lines of a $70 million [Indiscernible]
James Frias:
Yes, yes. So, our corporate elims line has a number of components. It includes interest expense, corporate overhead, intercompany profit, eliminations and then incentive-based compensation. And I was speaking to one subcomponent of that line, and that's intercompany profit. And if we compare the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, it was a $70 million drag by comparison and that should be lower in the second quarter.
John Ferriola:
Eliminations.
James Frias:
Yes, intercompany eliminations.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. What was the thought in reclassifying some of the tubular and piling businesses?
James Frias:
Yes, that's a good question, too. Last year was the first year where we had both piling and tubular in that steel products segment together in our 10-K. And we got feedback from a number of investors that said, it seems to us that makes more sense in steel products than in steel mills. And so we reevaluated and cited that was probably a better answer and so we made that move.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay. And then, John, I've got a question regarding this geopolitical situation in Russia. I know they're a big supplier to the U.S. of pig iron. Does that put more of a premium on the DRI operational execution, I guess, is one part of that comment that I'm making here. And then do you see a potential issue coming out of there just given everything that we're seeing going on in terms of the noise right now?
John Ferriola:
No, it's impossible to predict what's going to happen on the geopolitical front. That goes without saying. But what we feel very good about here at Nucor is that we have options. We have flexibility regardless of what happens. If you do see something happen on the pig iron side, we have the DRI that we can count on. Also having the great organization of D. J. Joseph as part of the Nucor family. That gives us a great deal of advantage, frankly, in terms of being able to secure scrap not only domestically, but frankly, from around the world, source alternative iron units from other places in the world. They've got contacts all over the world. So, one of the things -- or the advantage that we have is that we've got options that we can take advantage of if something does happen in any one particular region of the world. We've got options both internal to our own company and through the David J. Joseph Company externally bringing iron units into our country. We don't worry too much about that.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay, terrific. And just one last question from maybe a commercial operational standpoint. Where do you see your backlogs on the steel side on a product basis, maybe the longest or the tightest? And where might be there some shorter leads or weaker spots? Just trying to gauge the -- where we are in terms of the strength of the products. Thanks.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'm not going to go product by product. That's the worse, but I will say that in terms of the tightest market we see right now is our sheet product. Maybe it's a more general statement and say in our flat products because plate is also pretty tight right now. So, flat products, tighter. Long products, not as tight, although we do see some tightness in our structural market also. So, with the exception of structural, long products are a little bit looser. Flat products are tighter.
Philip Gibbs:
Thanks John. Appreciate it.
John Ferriola:
Hey, thank you.
Operator:
And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference call back over to John Ferriola for any additional or closing comments.
John Ferriola:
Thank you, Ashley. Well, let me close by saying thank you to our customers. We appreciate the opportunity to partner with you and to earn your business every day. And always know that Nucor stands ready to seize new opportunities with you. And I want to say thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your ongoing confidence in our team. And finally, to my Nucor teammates, let's keep it going. Let's keep winning together. I'm confident our best years are still ahead of us. I want to thank you for what you do for Nucor every day. And most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. There is nothing more important than safety, absolutely nothing. Thank you all for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And once again, that concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for your participation. And you may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola – Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jim Frias – Chief Financial Officer Leon Topalian – Executive Vice President-Beam and Plate Products Joe Stratman – Chief Digital Officer Chad Utermark – Executive Vice President-Fabricated Construction Products
Analysts:
Han Zhang – Cowen and Company Curt Woodworth – Credit Suisse Matthew Coren – Goldman Sachs Chris Terry – Deutsche Bank Timna Tanners – Bank of America Seth Rosenfeld – Jefferies Phil Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets David Gagliano – BMO Capital Markets Piyush Sood – Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter of 2017 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's leadership team, Jim Darsey, Jim Frias; Ladd Hall, Ray Napolitan, Joe Stratman; Dave Sumoski, Leon Topalian and Chad Utermark. The team in Charlotte would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for their excellent work in 2017. Your effective implementation of our five drivers to profitable growth strategy delivered Nucor's strongest annual earnings since the cyclical peak year of 2008. As always, you are working together to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. The 25,000 men and women of Nucor are the reason our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias will now review Nucor's fourth quarter performance and financial position. Following those comments, I will update you on the execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, John. Nucor reported fourth quarter of 2017 earnings of $1.20 per diluted share and full year 2017 earnings of $4.10 per diluted share. Fourth quarter and full year 2017 earnings included a net benefit of approximately $0.55 per diluted share related to the impact of the U.S. federal tax legislation enacted in the fourth quarter. Excluding the benefit realized from tax law changes, fourth quarter 2017 earnings exceeded our guidance range of $0.50 the $0.55 per diluted share. Nucor's Steelmaking Operations, particularly our sheet and bar mills, achieved significantly better-than-expected results for the month of December. The Nucor team faced a very challenging marketplace in 2017. Finished steel imports increased 12% from 2016, driven by unacceptably high levels of illegal trade. Non-residential construction activity remained sluggish. Nevertheless, Nucor delivered robust year-over-year profit growth and our highest earning since the cyclical peak year of 2008. We believe our 2017 performance provides strong evidence that Nucor's strategy for profitable growth is working. Over the past nine years since the 2008 cyclical peak, Nucor continued its long-standing tradition of investing opportunistically during downturns to grow long-term earnings power. Here are some examples of how our strategic work during the downturn is now yielding returns. Nucor's sheet mills delivered strong earnings growth in 2017 and actually exceeded their prior earnings record set in the last up-cycle. Their performance benefited from major investments made during the downturn. That include our Alabama mills galvanizing line, our Arkansas mills vacuum tank degasser, our Berkeley mills Wide-Light project, and our acquisition of the Gallatin steel flat-rolled mill. All five of our flat-rolled mills continue to successfully move up the value chain. Nucor's engineered bar mill group more than doubled their earnings contribution year-over-year in 2017 to a record level. During the downturn, we completed a $290 million investment program expanding our engineered bar production capacity and quality range at our engineered bar mills in Nebraska, Tennessee and South Carolina. Our quality achievements were highlighted in 2017, when our Memphis facility became the only steel mill in the world to earn Caterpillar's highest-quality certification, The Platinum Level. Nucor grew its 2017 automotive market shipments by 7% year-over-year to 1.5 million tons of sheet and engineered bar products. That growth was achieved in a year when North American automotive production declined approximately 3%. Nucor's growth is being fueled by expanding both our customer base and penetration of product platforms. Nucor Tubular Products, our newest growth platform, delivered strong profitability in 2017. Acquired in late 2016 and early 2017, these producers of hollow structural sections and electrical conduit provide an attractive channel to market for Nucor's hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheet steel. Our tubular shipments exceeded 900,000 tons last year. We are encouraged by our 2017 performance. More importantly, it increases our focus on delivering the more substantial long-term payoff we expect from our team's hard work. Nucor's financial position is strong. With total debt outstanding of $3.8 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 29% at the end of 2017. After paying off the $600 million of 5.75% 10-year notes that matured on December 1, our year-end cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $1 billion. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until April, 2021. For 2018, we estimate capital expenditures of approximately $1 billion. That represents a significant increase from 2017 capital spending of $450 million. Approximately two thirds of planned 2018 capital expenditures are for expansion, product improvement and cost-saving projects, with the remaining one third for maintenance purposes. We have six particularly significant growth projects underway this year. First, a specialty cold-rolling facility at our Arkansas sheet mill. Second, hot- band galvanizing line at our Kentucky sheet mill. Third, a sheet galvanizing facility in Mexico being constructed with our joint venture partner, JFE Steel. Fourth, a rolling mill upgrade at our Ohio bar mill. Fifth, a rebar micro mill in Missouri. And sixth, a new merchant bar rolling facility at our Illinois bar mill. In total, Nucor has announced approximately $2 billion in capital investments and acquisitions since the third quarter of 2016. We expect these projects to provide incremental annual EBITDA of approximately $400 million through normal business cycles. Nucor's capital allocation priorities are clear, and they have been consistently practiced over many years. Our first priority is to invest for profitable growth. Our investment strategy is simple and flexible, leveraging our five drivers to profitable growth. Our second priority is to return cash to our shareholders, primarily with cash dividends, consistent with our success in delivering long-term earnings power. Our February 2018 quarterly dividend will mark 45 consecutive years of increased regular or base dividends for our Company. Nucor is one of only 32 publicly held companies that have increased their dividend for 45 or more consecutive years. Our third priority is to opportunistically repurchase our stock when our cash position is strong and our shares are attractively priced. We intend to continue Nucor's long-term history of effective and balanced capital allocation. Over the 10-year period ended in 2017, Nucor returned $5.2 billion to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. These returns to shareholders represent approximately 36% of Nucor's cash from operations over that period. Earnings in the first quarter of 2018 are expected to increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2017, exclusive of the benefit related to tax reform. We believe there are significant optimism in steel end-use markets and are encouraged by positive pricing momentum we are experiencing for all of our steel mill products. Coupled with these positive trends, first quarter of 2018 results will be negatively impacted by higher scrap prices and weather-related interruptions at some of our sheet mills. We expect decreased earnings in the steel product segment due to typical seasonality. We expect first quarter earnings in our raw materials segment to improve compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor's disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. As Jim noted, our 2017 earnings are Nucor's highest since the cyclical peak year of 2008. Here's a statistic that I find especially noteworthy. Excluding the net benefit of about $175 million we received from the recent Federal tax law legislation. Nucor's 2017 earnings were more than $1.100 billion. Those earnings are more than double Nucor's average annual earnings of $483 million over the preceding seven years, or from 2010 through 2016. Let's take the analysis a step further and look at the steel industry environment in which we achieved our strong 2017 earnings. Two adverse factors of stand-out, first, the illegally traded imports remained a very serious problem last year. Finished steel imports captured an estimated 27% share of the U.S. market. Second, market conditions remained challenging for a number of major products produced by Nucor's steel mills, including beams, rebar, merchant bar and plate. Together, they represent about 45% of our total steel making capacity in 2017, or about 12 million tons. At the same time, our downstream fabricated construction products businesses, with shipments last year of about 2,400,000 tons, were significantly impacted by the still sluggish nonresidential construction activity. This highlights an important point. Nucor's 2017 earnings performance was delivered without the benefits of all cylinders firing last year. Nucor's 2017 results were also impacted by unplanned outages we experienced at our Louisiana DRI facility. With the unplanned outages, Louisiana's 2017 production was less than half of its weighted capacity. Louisiana's performance is unacceptable, and we are executing on a plan to change that. In late 2017, we began a top-to-bottom review of the Louisiana DRI facility. As we study potential process and design modifications at Louisiana, we are drawing upon both internal and a number of external resources. Our internal expertise includes our highly successful DRI plant in Trinidad. Trinidad is currently approaching world-class productivity performance to complement its longstanding world-class quality achievements. Looking at our overall performance in 2017, the Nucor team is encouraged, but not satisfied. We are ready and eager to realize these significant pent-up earnings power we have built with more than $8 billion invested during the steel industry's lengthy downturn that began in 2009. That number includes capital spending of more than $5 billion and acquisitions totaling slightly less than $3 billion. As highlighted by Jim's review of our 2017 performance, we are already realizing attractive returns from our work to grow stronger during the downturn. We view this as just the initial return, with a greater payoff in the years ahead. Our strategy for long-term profitable growth is simple and flexible. We are leveraging Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth, and they are
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Novid Rassouli, please proceed, from Cowen and Company. Mr. Rassouli, your line is open.
Han Zhang:
Hi, thank you guys for taking my question. This is Han in for Novid. So just wondering if you could speak a little bit about where you see shipments and pricing for the steel mill products this quarter, given the current market dynamics. And just on the Louisiana DRI plant, just wondering if we should assume that the place – the plant will run better this year compared to 2017. And if there will be any additional CapEx spending related to the DRI plant going forward. Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Well, to your first comment, we're not going to speak about individual pricing in an individual quarter. I'll just make a general comment. And as we learned at the end of last year, we saw pricing strengthening. That was encouraging. We are encouraged by some of the things that we see in the marketplace today, but there are still some headwinds out there in some of our product lines. Clearly, our sheets and our SBQ business, our engineered bar business, is doing well. We expect that to continue. We continue to see some challenges on our other businesses. Plate, from a volume perspective remains challenged. And certainly, our rebar and merchant bar are challenged. So in general, we see pricing at the end of the year improving. We expect that to be stable to improving. Volumes will be about stable, and we're not going to go much further than that. The Louisiana DRI plant, we said in the script that we are – we've hit the pause button. We certainly understand and agree that the performance that we had last year, and frankly, in the past, at Louisiana has been unacceptable. And we're in the process of doing a complete review from top to bottom of our operation there, both from a process perspective and from an equipment perspective. In terms of commenting on what CapEx would be required to change – make any changes there, it's really too early to tell. We won't make any comment on that until we complete our analysis. And at that time, maybe by the next conference call, maybe by midyear, we'll be able to give you a complete update on what we're doing in terms of process and what we're doing in terms of equipment. But at this point, it's too early for us to comment. It's certainly too early for anyone else to comment. I will say that we have brought in a bunch of external experts both on blast furnaces, on chemical plants and on DRI plants. And we have a tremendous amount of internal resource that we can capitalize upon. As you know, we have a plant running – a DRI plant running in Trinidad that's approaching world-class production levels and certainly at world-class quality levels. So we've got a lot of resource, both internally and externally, that we can draw upon to complete this analysis, and we will. And we'll give you a complete update when we have completed the analysis.
Han Zhang:
Great. Thank you so much.
John Ferriola:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curt Woodworth:
Hey, good afternoon, guys.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon, Curt.
Curt Woodworth:
John, can you help frame sort of the overall mix impact from some of the capital investments you're making on the sheet side? So the addition of the 500,000 tons of cold-rolling in galv. Where do you see your value-added mix going to, say, by 2019 or 2020 relative to what it was in 2017 on the sheet side?
John Ferriola:
Well, strategically, we believe that our mix in sheet needs to be closer to the market mix at existed sheet. Today, we are a little bit under-weighted in downstream in terms of cold-rolled and in terms of galvanized, so we're focusing on those two areas. I would point out, if you look at the total – we in fact we consider our tubular business as also a downstream business. So if you factor in the tubular business, 900,000 tons to 1 million tons that we supply internally from our sheet mills, we're a little bit closer to that market mix, but we've got some ways to go yet. Certainly, the cold mill and the galvanizing line at Gallatin will get us closer to that market mix. We'll continue to move in that direction until we feel we are strategically balanced with the marketplace.
Curt Woodworth:
Can you give us a sense of what your, say, cold-rolled or coated percent mix was in 2017 so that we have a better sense to model these?
John Ferriola:
In terms of our internal mix, we’re about 60% hot-band and 20% cold-rolled and about 20% galvanized.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. Great. And a second question on the steel mills segment on the cost structure. The conversion costs were up fairly significantly second half of the year relative to the first half of the year. And I understand there's been energy, electricity inflation. But can you comment on sort of how you see raw materials flowing into next year? Do you think that conversion cost would start to moderate at any point?
John Ferriola:
Well, probably the biggest impact that we'll see in terms of conversion cost in 2018 will be on the electrode side. We expect electrode cost to go up, as we reported, there's a shortage of electrodes. And there's a lot of media talk about pricing and what's going to happen to it. Now we do have – we've got long-term contractual relationships with a lot of our suppliers, so at least, in the short-term, we'll be somewhat not that significantly impacted by the spot price increases as we will see in the second half of the year. The good news is, and this is something that we're very happy about, that is that, in terms of volume commitments, we have the volume commitments on the contract to produce the maximum amount of steel that we have scheduled to produce in 2018. We have enough electrodes to do that. So overall, in terms of the conversion cost, probably the biggest impact will be the electrodes. There’s always a little bit electrical energy costs continue to go up. Gas costs might go up a little bit in 2018, with the price of oil up a little bit. That’s the – electrodes would be a major impact. Jim?
Jim Frias:
I would tell you that, sometimes when you try and compute our conversion cost, there’s one factor that’s hard to capture the value of, and that’s scrap. Because we do publish what our use cost was, but that’s not necessarily what’s going through our P&L each quarter. So if you think about how we finished 2016, we had about 5.7 million tons of steel inventory, including scrap and all the steel that we’ve made that we either had at our steel mills order downstream businesses. And that 5.7 million tons had embedded in it, the scrap costs that we purchased in the fourth quarter of 2016, which is a much lower value. So we started out with some very low cost of scrap embedded in our inventory. So I think – if you’re not factoring that into your conversion cost model, then you may be overstating the step up in conversion costs in the second half. That may be a factor in your analysis.
John Ferriola:
And to go back to your question about 2018, though, on scraps, it’s hard to predict what scrap is going to do long-term over the course of the year. But we think, over the next several months, we’ll see a relatively stable. That means up and down a little bit, but we won’t comment for the rest of the year on scrap.
Curt Woodworth:
Okay. The metallics cost that you report, is the right way to think about it – for example, the $317 million this quarter that would flow through…
Jim Frias:
[Indiscernible]
Curt Woodworth:
Okay.
Jim Frias:
Some of it will flow through currently, but the majority, there’s a lag of about a quarter.
Curt Woodworth:
Right, okay. All right. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Matthew Coren with Goldman Sachs.
Matthew Coren:
Good afternoon, John, Jim. All you are doing well. Question, with some quick math, it looks like you put up an EBITDA margin for about 13% for the full year, which is, as you pointed out, it’s the closest you’ve come really since the pre-financial crisis levels. So if everything were to hold still from today for the remainder of the year, including the cost pressures that you just mentioned, how many more cylinders do you think you could fire in 2018? And how much could you estimate to be able to increase that margin versus last year?
John Ferriola:
Well, a lot of that answer depends upon what happens in the market. As you adequately pointed out, we had a very good year in 2017, our highest earnings since 2018. And frankly, a record-setting year for our sheet business and for our engineered bar business. So good news on that. In terms of our other products, market will dictate how that grows. You asked about our commitment to capital. We are committing another $1 billion this year to 2018 to capital spend and about maybe two-third of that will go to new products, cost-reduction projects, expansion of our businesses and so – anything you want to add, Jim, to that?
Jim Frias:
No, I don’t think so. I think you covered it.
Matthew Coren:
Fair enough. Let me ask you a bit about the overall market and you say whether this is going to continue. It seems like a quarter ago we had this market pegged, auto slowing, non-res is fine, but not particularly exciting. Energy is great. The rig counts are holding steady. But you’ve been watching your customers’ behavior and temperament for a long time. What’s materially changed? Are they coming to your sales team and showing that the demand they’re seeing is that much better? Is there a particular enthusiasm within the certain buckets of end markets, like, our machinery manufacturers showing more animal spirits than they were six months ago, for example.
John Ferriola:
Well, I got to tell you, frankly, of course, all of our products and most of our customers, we see optimism that we haven’t seen in quite some time as – it’s a very positive attitude out there. And clearly, our customers are coming to us looking for more commitments for 2018 in terms of volume. So optimism, overall, looking pretty good. So I would be – I would say that it’s hard to predict exactly what the market would do as you go forward in the year. But right now, we see a great deal of optimism. You mentioned the one area where we see a little bit of a retraction and that’s in automotive. But I would point out that, although automotive production was down, as we said in the script, down about 3% in 2017, we increased our market share into that market by about 7% up to 1.5 million tons. So we continue to grow in that market and that’s a reflection of the – our continuous movement up on margin and higher-quality products, higher-strength products, we continue to invest in that. Our cold mill, and our Hickman facility, our Arkansas facility, will be a huge step in getting us even further into that automotive market. So we feel pretty good about the things going into 2018. Market seems good and there’s potential for some better news coming out, we hope. We think the long overdue infrastructure plan; we hope we see some action on that early in 2018. Now of course, even if the President does take some action, it will be a while before it goes down to our businesses. But when you look at infrastructure and when you look at Nucor and just the breadth of our products, when we get that badly needed infrastructure plan, and we’re going to get it someday because we need it someday, there’s no company that is positioned better than Nucor to participate in that infrastructure build. So again, we won’t see the benefits right away, but when they do flow down to us, we will be positioned in our industry better than most to take advantage of that infrastructure build.
Matthew Coren:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Mine is mainly around the tax reforms. Can you give us some guidance for 2018 on what you expect to be your book tax rate?
Jim Darsey:
Yes, I’ll take that. Go ahead.
Chris Terry:
The second part of that is just around…
Jim Darsey:
I’m sorry. We lost you on the second half of that. Are you still there? I’m thinking we had a cell phone issue happened there. Well, let me answer the first part of the question. And if Chris is able to get back on the call, we’ll talk about the second part of this question. First of all, we obviously recorded a big adjustment at the end of the year. There could be some true-up adjustments as we finish doing all the accounting work around implementing the tax legislation, and some of those could be positive or negative. We really don’t know. Otherwise, we have recorded something different. So there’s some things that could trickle through. We’re excluding adjustments as we finish the implementation and also excluding the impact of non-controlling interests. We would expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of 23% to 25%. So I think we lost.
John Ferriola:
Yes, let’s go to next caller.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon, Timna.
Timna Tanners:
On the Q1 guidance, I just wanted to see if you could provide a little bit more detail. I was kind of surprised by the comments on the weather. It’s not even third of the way through this first quarter. And already, you’re telling us that sheet is going to be hit. Why sheet? What is it about this quarter that’s weather-hit? And are we wrong in thinking that normally first half is pretty strong? So what is the seasonal commentary you’re referring to?
John Ferriola:
Well, that’s really directed at what took place in January. We had a storm, as you know, freezing temperatures that impacted our operations at Berkeley. It also impacted our operations at – adversely impacted our operations for almost a week in Arkansas both at our Hickman sheet mill and our Nucor-Yamato mill. So, yes, it’s early in the quarter, but we recognize that in the first month of the quarter, we’ve had – if you look at kind of summarizing all of our operations and the weather impact, we’re probably looking at an impact that – for the first month of the year, hit us pretty hard. So we just – we don’t know what the rest of the quarter is going to bring, but just kind of making you aware that this is something that will impact the first quarter.
Timna Tanners:
Got you. Okay, that’s helpful. And then I think a key theme so far in steel earnings has been just a lag effect on pricings and I think a shift broadly to more contractors, CRU Index business again. Can you just run through us – for us, like how we should think about that flow-through of price impacts across your businesses, if you would?
John Ferriola:
Well, specifically, on contract business, it’s – it would be our sheet business. And we this year we have about 70% of our total sheet businesses on the contract that’s CRU-based. Most of it is adjusted on a quarterly basis or monthly basis. I can give you an exact breakdown of what percentage is quarterly.
Jim Frias:
25%.
John Ferriola:
25% is quarterly, and the rest of it is – the majority of the rest of it is monthly. So that gives you some idea. So we’re relatively tied to CRU. On our engineered bar products, we are more tied to raw material. And in terms of our contract pricing, we saw 50% for 2018. And we have the last part of that is tied – as it has been forever, to our raw material costs there. So those are really the two areas where we have contracts going forward into 2018. Does that answer you question, Timna?
Timna Tanners:
Yes, that’s helpful. Thank you. And then if I could, the last one. It was really great to see the detail on your capital allocation plans and some of the investments. Galvanized, we’ve talked about in the past, somewhere, it seems like all the mills are adding capacity, and we’ve had some worries about oversupplying that, although you’ve pointed out there is growing demand. And if you could touch on that and then on the bar side, we’ve gotten so used to low utilization of bar products and definitely as constructions have been coming out of it’s trough, but why make the investment at bar if it’s not been a great area of return. Is the return there enough to just – I mean I guess it’s enough to justify the investment. But why – and what about the cannibalization of other bar mills you have if you are building new capacity.
John Ferriola:
Actually very good questions. And when you look it – I’m going to kind of start by putting the two of them together the galv question and you talked about bar but I’m sure you are talking about rebar, given our announcements, to a less degree, merchant bar. When we look at our business strategically, and you look at those investments that we’re making, frankly, it’s not just more of the same. In terms of our galvanizing, clearly, one of the investments in Mexico, that opens up a new world for us. We’ve been in the Mexican market quite a bit for the last several years, but not having in automotive and in terms of galvanizing, this puts some galvanizing boots on the ground right in Mexico. So that’s a geographical issue. In terms of our Gallatin galvanizing line, as we mentioned in the script, that will be the widest hot-band galvanizing line in the United States, and it’s located right there in the heart of that market. So logistically, we’ve got – we believe that we’ve got an advantage to the marketplace there also. The same is true of our rebar mill in East of Kansas City, in Sedalia. When you look at the location in terms of the market and in terms of the scrap availability, we believe that we’re going to have a very good logistical advantage in terms of our product and in terms of our scrap supply. So we feel confident about that investment. In Kankakee, we’re in the heart of the market. When you look at where the product is coming into that market from today, it’s traveling great distances from outside of the region. We’ll be right there in the heart of that market. And you make a good point about whether or not we are cannibalizing our other mills in terms of rebar by adding this thing. But if you look at our overall what we’re doing in Kankakee reducing the amount of rebar that we’re producing, shifting some of that mill into merchant, adding merchant, so we’re actually leveraging our hot metal that’s available in Kankakee in terms of our investments there. And then overall, what we’ve done is we’ve done a market analysis. Frankly, of course, the United States in terms of rebar and in terms of merchant, looked at where our facilities are located and did an assessment, and frankly, a reassessment of where we want to be producing what products to optimize our logistics. And the investments that you see we’re making today on the bar side are a result of that logistics and market analysis.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, great. Thanks.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions on the domestic plate market, please. I recognized that plate pricing was pretty choppy during the course of 2017. I guess a bit surprise that you commented earlier that plate remains a challenge going into 2018, given the recent sharp rally we’ve seen in the last couple of months. Can you just talk a little bit about the current status of the U.S. plate market, whether the recent price hikes have been successful, if they’re sticking with customers or if you can comment it more broadly on the demand environment within plate. What areas are stronger? Which are perhaps still lagging across your customer base? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Leon, why don’t you start off with your comment please.
Leon Topalian:
Okay. Thank you, John. To answer your question, we saw shipment in 2017 actually improve about 12% year-over-year. As we look forward to 2018, we do see a modest improvement in market and then specifically some of those sectors – energy sector seeing some revival in quotes on the offshore drilling business, some refineries and some big line pipe jobs. We also see some OEM markets coming back and wind continues to be very strong, transmission poles and a few others. And imports because of our trade action and continued focus there continue to remain in check, and we’ll continue to move forward on those fronts. But again, just the overall market, we do see improving in 2018. And in terms of whether or not pricing is sticking, again, it goes back to the market, where – supply and demand we – the market will dictate our pricing. And specifically, we wouldn’t make moves into the market in terms of price increases if we didn’t believe they were sustainable.
John Ferriola:
To Leon’s point, he mentioned that the import picture is better. Imports are actually down, as we look at that. There’s also some domestic capacity that has come off line in 2017. And you mentioned a couple of things that were up on demand, but I would also add to that heavy equipment has been improving, and mining has been going up. And so those are two areas where we can see some improvement in demand also. So my comments were in general, but we hope, as we go through the rest of the year, we continue to see improvement in that area, but it’s still early in the year.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Great. Thank you very much. And just one follow-up question separately within the steel product division. Can you talk a little bit about the pricing and margin dynamics in that business given the sharp rally we’ve seen in some of the steel input costs there? How are you thinking about your ability to pass them onto customers and the strength of your order book going into 2018?
John Ferriola:
Chad Utermark?
Chad Utermark:
Thanks, John. Yes, we’ve encouraged by what we are seeing in our backlogs year-over-year as well as what we're hearing from our customers in our downstream businesses. The non-residential sentiment out there continues to improve. Square footage activity is up. So we're encouraged as we head into 2018 with what we see in the non-residential construction market.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon Phil.
Phil Gibbs:
Had a question, John, on automotive. I think you said, in 2017, you did about 1.7 million tons of shipments. Just curious and…
John Ferriola:
1.5 million. Just to correct you. 1.5 million. If I said 1.7 million, I misspoke. It's 1.5 million.
Phil Gibbs:
And what was that relative to the 2016 base? And how much of that, roughly speaking, should we think about split amongst sheet and bar?
John Ferriola:
First of all, that's about a 7% improvement 2017 over 2016. So, that answers the question about improvement. That is 1.5 million. As I mentioned a couple of times in the past, our goal is still to reach 2 million tons in terms of the split between sheet and engineered bar product. Of the 1.5 million tons, about 1.2 million of that is in sheet product.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks, John. And when you get the full gamut of your investments in – from 2018, 2019 in the sheet side that you're making here in the U.S. and in Mexico, is the primary driver to get to that 2 million tons moving that sheet capability up to that target?
John Ferriola:
Our automotive is certainly one of the targets, but there's other targets that we are also focused on. HVAC would be another area that this would be useful in. The goal, in particular, in is to get into those ultra high-strengths steels that we believe not only are applicable to automotive now, but frankly, the light, high-strength steels we see are going to be in greater demand in automotive, particularly as the markets in automotive shift to maybe to electrified vehicles and other things like that as time goes on.
Phil Gibbs:
Do you think, John, many of the EAF mills right now can make the light high-strength steel that you're talking about?
John Ferriola:
Well, I'm not going to comment about what others can do. What I can say to you, and we said it in the script, that when you look at the specialty cold mill that we're putting in at Heckman, I think it's – in terms of the carbon specialty mills, it's one of three in the world, it's the only one in North America that will be able to produce ultra high-strength steels at very efficient levels. And that's really the key. It's – what we call a 6-roll mill that's able to be converted very quickly to a 4-roll mill. And that gives us the ability to reduce the number of passes to be able to get to those, a, light gauges; but b, also have the horsepower to be able to do the ultra high-strength at the very low gauges also. So I'm not going to comment on whether others can do, but I'm very pleased with what we've done in our Berkeley mills in terms of the chemistries and the metallurgical improvements that we made to be able again, to do the high-strength steels that use that type of steel that goes into automotive today and with high margins. And I'm excited about what we're doing in our Decatur facility at that galvanneal. Very excited about the cold mill that we're putting in Heckman. So we've made a big investment and we're confident that we will reach our goal of two million tons by 2020.
Phil Gibbs:
Thanks, John. I just had one more follow-up, if I could. If I heard you correctly, in the first quarter, you said that volumes on the steel side would be pretty stable, if I heard that right. I just wanted to make sure that, one, and then you did mention weather is an issue in some of your sheet mills, but are you seeing freight and logistics constraints right now given some of the driver shortages that we see? I just want to make sure I get the full picture here.
John Ferriola:
You are correct on what you heard. We think that volumes will be basically stable, maybe slightly improved, okay, depending upon how things finish out the quarter. In terms of the logistical issues, there have been some. We’ve taken very proactive steps to address that issue, so we're in a good position. Joe Stratman heads up our logistics team, so I'm going to ask him to make some comments on some of the proactive steps we've taken.
Joe Stratman:
Yes, Phil. That's a great question. As John said, we're not immune to the supply and demand in the transportation space, but we really have not seen any issues yet. Logistics, for us, is not only a major cost issue, but it's also a customer service issue. So we've been focused beyond it, pretty hard for the last decade or so. In 2008, we actually established Nucor's logistics center, which is a group of transportation professionals based in Memphis. And they work side by side with our plant teams to coordinate activity across the enterprise. To give you some example, today in trucking, we actually own about 200 of our own trucks that we run every day. In addition, we have about 100 dedicated contract trucks under – at our disposal. And we have over 1,000 trucking companies under a master contract agreement across the enterprise. You combine that with our geographical footprint and the density of plants we have across the country, we can allow our trucking companies a lot of reload or next-load opportunities. In fact, we have probably somewhere in the area of 20% to 25% of the trucks that leave a Nucor facility actually drop their load and reload at another Nucor facility. In addition to that on rail, we own 2,700 railcars that handle both scrap and steel. And you might be surprised to know that 15% of our logistics costs actually – or tonnage volume, excuse me, actually transport on water. So we have long-term contracts with barge lines and ocean lines for our DRI facilities that have contractual arrangements for both availability and freight. So as the economy improves, we feel we're very well situated to maintain and control our cost but more importantly, service our customers.
Phil Gibbs:
Terrific color and thanks Joe. Appreciate it.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just had a question regarding the strategic investments and the outline that you provided today and then in some slides. The $2.1 billion of investments since the third quarter of 2016 that looks like $900 million obviously was tied to the two acquisitions, which were back in Q4 2016 and early 2017. And then the EBITDA target, $400 million. I'm assuming that's a kind of a mix of what we've already seen with the tube and plus what's coming. So I was wondering if you could just break down that EBITDA, $400 million, over the cycle, $400 million. How much of that actually flowed through 2017 results already via those two acquisitions?
John Ferriola:
Well, the one comment I would make is on the tubular side. We've seen that pull through very, very quickly. So we've seen some of that in 2017. And we expect, the second part of your question, we're not going to break it down individually by project, but we are pleased with what we've seen so far with the investments that we made, particularly in tubular. Jim, did you want to add something?
Jim Frias:
Yes Dave, I think that's a very good question. And in fact, if you look at – everything that's an acquisition, it's over $1 billion out of the $2.1 billion. And of course, acquisitions generate – you're paying a higher premium for the EBIT because they are immediately accretive in terms of cash flow. And so when we give the $400 million, probably, there's a bigger weighting that's tied to the capital expenditures than there is that's tied to the acquisitions. So it's more coming in the pipe than what we've already received. But clearly, we're getting the benefit of the acquisitions today.
David Gagliano:
Okay. So is it roughly a reasonable weighting, say – I mean, $100 million flowed through so far…
Jim Frias:
I don't want to be that specific. I'd rather not be that specific. We don't break out that kind of detail.
David Gagliano:
All right, okay. No problem. Thanks.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Piyush Sood with Morgan Stanley.
Piyush Sood:
Hey, John and Jim, good afternoon. A couple of questions, are you trying to expand in the automotive sheet side? Could you talk about your raw materials sourcing strategy? Is the plan to those – most of the new iron units from Louisiana or you looking at domestic or imported HBA or pig iron? Or is it going more towards prime scrap? Just want to understand how you're thinking about it?
John Ferriola:
Well, it's actually a mix of all of the above. We do use, fortunately, have part of the David J. Joseph Company as part of the Nucor family. So they're able to supply us with information on what's going on in the world. We always take a look at the economics of the materials that we’re using, cost of the iron unit. So we do bring in some pig iron where that makes the most sense. We bring some of that in from Brazil. We bring some we’re still getting any from the Ukraine, a little bit in from the Ukraine. But clearly, our overall long-term strategy is to focus on DRI and to use prime scrap from the domestic market. So DRI has always been part of the plan and will continue to be part of the plan. Today, if you would to look at roughly our mix in terms of our sheet, it’s about 15% to 20% pig iron, another 20% to 30% DRI, and the rest in prime scrap or obsolete scrap. That gives you some idea of the mix today, but DRI has always been part of our long-term strategy. It’s going to be more and more important as time goes on. And the availability of prime scrap becomes more challenged, as we’ve talked about in the past, and not only big in terms of volume as manufacturing continues to move offshore. There’s less of it available. And as you continue to move through processing the prime scrap over and over again, you lose some of the quality of the prime scrap. So as we move forward, we think that our strategy of DRI is the right strategy. We will solve the problems in Louisiana. There’s no doubt in my mind about that, and that’s sort of how we view our automotive for raw material strategy.
Piyush Sood:
So that HBI product that interests you or would you rather import more maybe prime scrap – or either prime, or let’s say, pig iron?
John Ferriola:
HBI has never really been a preferred iron unit source for us. It doesn’t travel well, and frankly, does not outperform as well in our furnaces as pig iron or DRI, or frankly, prime scrap, for that matter.
Piyush Sood:
Okay. Thanks for the color. And I have a follow-up. You had several high returns growth projects lined up. So how are you thinking about allocating capital to inorganic growth at this point? Is the bar higher now for acquisitions? And would it continue to focus on downstream so that it helps through more volumes?
John Ferriola:
We take a look at what opportunities are in front of us and we evaluate them on an economic basis as they happen to be upstream, so be it. If they are in our core businesses, so be it, if they’re downstream, so be it. Frankly, if it’s outside of our mainstream, and it provides a good economic return, we would take a hard look at it. So we’re not limited by what it is, what the opportunity is. We focus on whether or not that adds value to our shareholders. And if it does, then we’ll make the move on it. So one of the great things you’ve heard us say several times our strategy is going forward, our strategic plan is simple, but flexible. So we can move in many directions. And the good news is we have financial strength to take advantage of whatever comes in front of us.
Piyush Sood:
Thank you. That’s very useful.
Operator:
And it appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. John Ferriola, I’d like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks, sir.
John Ferriola:
Well, in conclusion, I would like to say thank you to our customers. We appreciate the opportunity to partner with you and to earn your business every day. Now we’re excited and ready to join with you to seize new opportunities as we move forward. Thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your ongoing confidence and your support. And finally to my Nucor teammates, I want to say thank you for a great year. Thank you for the hard work you’re putting into make it a great year. Let’s keep it going. 2018 has the potential to be a better year. Let’s work together to make that happen. And more importantly than anything else, let’s make sure that we all work safely as we work towards that goal. Thank you for your interest in our company.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s conference. I’d like to thank everyone for their participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO &President Jim Frias - CFO Joe Stratman - Chief Digital Officer Leon Topalian - EVP, Beam and Plate Products Jim Darsey - EVP, Raw Materials Dave Sumoski - EVP, Merchant and Rebar Products
Analysts:
Jorge Beristain - Deutsche Bank Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies Timna Tanners - Bank of America Curtis Woodworth - Credit Suisse Novid Rassouli - Cowen and Company Phil Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior new management team, Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias; Chief Digital Officer, Joe Stratman; and our other Executive Vice Presidents, Jim Darsey, Ladd Hall, Ray Napolitan, Leon Topalian, Dave Sumoski and Chad Utermark. The leadership team in Charlotte would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for their excellent work in the first nine months of 2017 to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. You are the reason our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you. We also want to extend a very warm welcome to the newest members of the Nucor family, the approximately 125 teammates who joined us in September with our acquisition of cold finished bar facilities in St. Louis Missouri and Monterrey Mexico. Nucor is proud and excited to have you on Board. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias will now review Nucor's third quarter performance and financial position. Following those comments, I will update you on the execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks John. Nucor reported third quarter of 2017 earnings of $0.83 per diluted share. Nucor's third quarter performance represents a decrease compared to second quarter of 2017 earnings of $1 per diluted share and year ago third quarter earnings of $0.95 per diluted share. Our earnings for the first nine months of 2017 of $2.94 per diluted share compared to $1.99 per share for the first nine months of 2016. The first nine months of 2017 earnings actually exceed annual earnings achieved every year since 2008, a cyclical peak year. Nucor's disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. During the steel industry's protracted downturn, we have invested aggressively to increase our capabilities for delivering value to our customers and profitable growth for our shareholders. We're achieving these improved results when large parts of our business including rebar, merchant bar, special bar quality steel, plate steel, structural steel, and DRI are operating well below peak performance. Our team is encouraged but not satisfied by the initial returns we have realized this year. Compared to second quarter 2017, our third quarter earnings decline were largely reflected lower capacity utilization rates and metal margins at our steel mills segment, as well as the impact of an unplanned outage at our Louisiana direct reduced iron ore DRI plant. The facility stopped production in late July, and resumed operations in early October. Third quarter earnings before income taxes and noncontrolling interests in the raw material segment declined approximately $56 million compared to the second quarter. The vast majority of this decline was driven by the unplanned outage at Nucor Steel Louisiana, the last of the majority of the third quarter. The profitability of our steel products segment improved in the third quarter from the second quarter. Our comment about our tax rate as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from noncontrolling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 29.3% for the third quarter and 32.1% for year-to-date 2017. Third quarter of 2017 results included a benefit totaling $0.04 per diluted share related to tax return true-ups and state tax credits. This benefit was incorporated in our guidance issued in mid-September. Nucor's financial position remains strong. With total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion our gross debt to capital ratio was 33% at the end of the third quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled over $1.6 billion. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until April 2021. For 2017 we estimate capital spending of approximately $500 million and depreciation and amortization of about $730 million. During the third quarter of 2017, Nucor repurchased 1,591,000 shares of its common stock at a cost of about $90 million or just under $57 per share. Nucor's capital allocation priorities are clear and they have been consistently practiced over many years. Our first priority is to invest for profitable long-term growth. Nucor's growth investment strategy is simple and flexible. We are leveraging our five drivers to profitable growth. Our second priority is to pay cash dividends consistent with our success in delivering long-term earnings growth. Nucor has increased its space dividend for 44 consecutive years. We believe that record is strong evidence of both the sustainability of our business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our third priority is to opportunistically repurchase our stock when our cash position is strong and our shares are attractively priced. From 2004 to the just completed quarter, Nucor has cumulatively returned $8.3 billion to our shareholders via regular dividends, supplemental dividends and share repurchases. These returns to shareholders represent approximately 39% of Nucor's cash from operations generated over that period. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages, highly adaptable business model, and proven strategies will allow our team to continue to deliver profitable long-term growth and attractive returns to Nucor's shareholders. Approaching the end of 2017, we are encouraged by number of positive factors impacting our markets going into 2018. We see generally stable or improving conditions for our most important end markets including nonresidential construction, automotive, energy, heavy equipment and agriculture. Although illegally traded imports remain at unacceptable levels, we are encouraged by the cumulative benefits of the U.S. steel industry's successful trade cases. We expect fourth quarter earnings to be similar to slightly decreased from the third quarter exclusive of the previously mentioned tax benefit recognized in the third quarter. The raw materials segment's performance should improve significantly driven by more consistent DRI production. The steel products segment is likely to benefit from margin improvement. The steel mills segment will see some decline largely due to weakness in plate and typical seasonality. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks Jim. Nucor's disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. Jim noted that our first nine months of 2017 earnings represent Nucor's best performance for this period since the cyclical peak year of 2008. In fact, our year-to-date earnings of $948 million are more than double Nucor's average comparable period earnings of $411 million reported during the 2010 to 2016 time period. More than 25,000 men and women of Nucor team are delivering this profitable growth despite several ongoing headwinds. 2017 has seen a renewed search of illegally traded imports into the U.S. Through the first nine months of 2017, finished steel imports have increased an estimated 15% compared to the same period last year. The year-to-date market share for finished steel imports stands at approximately 27%. Nucor continues to believe significant work remains to be done to achieve free and fair trade for U.S. manufacturers. More specifically it is time for comprehensive and broad based remedies that address illegal foreign trade practices that have materially weakened our nation's economic volatility. We applaud the U.S. international trade commissions, unanimous and affirmative vote earlier this month on Whirlpool's Section 201 petition regarding serious injury from imported washing machines. Nucor and our customers embrace and thrive in a marketplace where winners are determined by real economic advantages earned by efficiency and innovation. Additionally, growth remains modest in our key end-use market nonresidential construction. Estimated 2017 nonresidential construction activity measured by square footage represents only 67% of the most recent cyclical peak level reached in 2007. Rebuilding America's infrastructure is an absolute prerequisite to the U.S. economy returning to a vibrant growth path that delivers rising standards of living for everyone. Nucor continues to urge bipartisan action on this critical issue. Action is years overdue on a meaningful infrastructure investment plan for our country. Economic and industry conditions remain challenging but the men and women on the Nucor team are doers. Our focus remains on what is under our control, execution of our disciplined strategy for long-term profitable growth. The strategy is simple and flexible. We are leveraging Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth. The five drivers are strengthen our position as a low-cost producer, achieve market leadership positions in every product line in our portfolio, move up the value chain by expanding our capabilities to produce higher quality, higher margin products, expand and leverage our downstream channels to market to increase our steel mill's base load volume for sustained results and achieve commercial excellence to complement our traditional operational strength. I will now update you on highlights of our team's recent progress implementing our strategy for profitable growth. During the third quarter, we announced two growth investments for our bar mill group. A micro mill project is being considered for five states in the Midwest and Southeast, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina and Florida. We will also be expanding our existing merchant bar operations in either Illinois or Ohio. Nucor's bar mill's are a cornerstone of our company. Capitalizing on opposition is a market leader in a low-cost producer of merchant and rebar. They consistently generate attractive returns on capital and free cash flow. Both the micro mill project and the expansion of our merchant bar operations leverage our existing infrastructure and allow us to better serve our customers. These investments will combine the firepower of multiple drivers to profitable growth enhancing our position as a market leader and low-cost producer, expanding our capabilities to serve our downstream channels to market, and pursuing across the board commercial excellence. In September we completed our acquisition of two cold finished bar products facilities, one in Missouri and one in Mexico for a purchase price of approximately $60 million. The combined capacity of the plants is 200,000 tons which increases Nucor's total cold finished bar and wire facilities to more than 1.1 million tons annually. This acquisition advances our profitable growth strategy on a number of fronts. It expands Nucor's market leadership position in cold finished products. It grows our portfolio of value-added products. It creates synergies with our bar mills by providing an additional channel to market for Nucor's special bar quality or SBQ products. On a geographical perspective, we are increasing our footprint in the U.S. and gaining entry into the Mexican market. This positions Nucor cold finish to better serve North American automotive and industrial customers. In his remarks, Jim discussed the Louisiana's DRI plants negative impact on third quarter earnings. When in operation our Louisiana DRI facility has met and in many cases exceeded our expectations for quality and conversion costs. The challenge is been Louisiana's inability to achieve consistent uptime. Various equipment failures and other issues have resulted in a number of unplanned outages. In light of this unacceptable performance pattern, we are currently focused on developing a more holistic approach to achieving system-wide reliability at the plant. As we study potential design and engineering modifications at Louisiana, we will be drawing upon lessons learned from our Trinidad DRI plant. Trinidad is currently approaching world-class productivity levels to complement its long-standing world-class quality achievements. Nucor's DRI production capacity is a critical foundation supporting our strategy to move up the value chain and that strategy is working. I am pleased to report that are Decatur, Alabama sheet mill was notified this month that Nucor will be one of three recipients of the Honda Environmental Recognition Award at Honda's Sustainability Symposium on October 24. Nucor is receiving this recognition for supplying galvanneal, cold-rolled, high-strength steel as a replacement for this grade produced by integrated steel mills. Nucor's EAF production process emits roughly 70% less carbon dioxide and equivalent greenhouse gases to manufacture the equivalent amount of steel produced by integrated steel mills, yet has improved performance ability. Congratulations and thank you to our Decatur sheet mill teammates to get excellent work. Please keep it going. For a company such as Nucor with its unique position of strength and proven ability to execute its strategy for profitable growth, this is a time of great opportunity. That is why the Nucor team is both ready and eager to continue unleashing the pent-up earnings power that we have built into our company during the industry downturn. I am absolutely confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. We appreciate your interest in Nucor, and would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Jorge Beristain of Deutsche Bank.
Jorge Beristain:
I just wanted to do a check on your situation with electrodes in the face of the reason 10 times spike, how much inventory do you have and when do you see the price effect kind of kicking in 2018?
Jim Frias:
Let me start by saying that we do not buy our electrodes on spot markets. We have long established contractual relationship with our suppliers and as a result we feel pretty good about our position. First, the most important thing we think a look at it as our availability, we make sure that we do have electrodes and we have right now we think our inventory will get us through the first quarter of next year, so we're feeling very confident about that and we have letters of intent from our suppliers to be able to supply us with electrodes for the rest of 2018. So for us supply is really not an issue and because of the contractual arrangements - all the hype that you’re reading about the spot price increases really doesn’t pertain to us and we have pricing through the first half of next year. And we expect to see increases in the second half of next year in pricing but again availability is really not an issue for us. We buy, we buy almost all of our electrodes domestically and well rather, let me rephrase that we buy none of them from China. And so we don’t see any issue with the Chinese issue of supply. The other thing that I would point out that gives me quite a little bit of advantage on this is our DRI usage. Through our DRI we’re able to accomplish what we call single charging and that reduces our power on times that our EAF - and reduces this is the energy consumption that we have as well as the electrode consumption by about 10% which is pretty significant. And a result of us not requiring us to swing the roof off as a result of using the DRI and the feeding of the DRI through the roof of a furnace. So all those reasons we feel pretty good about where we are both on availability and where we are on pricing and frankly our position on terms of consumption of electrodes as a result of our DRI usage.
Jorge Beristain:
If I could squeak in a second question, can you just comment there has been some competitors recently announcing price hikes do you believe the market is right for a hike right now in HRC?
John Ferriola:
We announced one last night and as I have said many times on this call we don't make twice in these announcements unless we believe that they’re appropriate and that the market is ready to accept them. So that's my answer to that question. We think it is appropriate and we think that it will stick.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Seth Rosenfeld of Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I have couple of questions on the plate market outlook please. In fact earlier on the call I think in the release as well and that play with a meaningful drag on Q3 to begin in Q4 earnings. But looking to the shipment and pricing data looks like your shipment perhaps grew over 20% year-over-year in Q3, I realized price is roughly stable quarter-over-quarter. So can you just help us understand a bit better what's driving the current margin drag and then with that in mind perhaps what we should expect into Q4. Obviously the spot market has indeed weakened so are you basically expecting a bit of catch up on margins in the fourth quarter? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
I’m going to let Leon who is responsible for our plate operations begin and then I’ll add anything maybe towards the end. Leon?
Leon Topalian:
We have seen some metrics that are better than a year ago certainly, shipments are up year-over-year as you indicated. Our backlogs are little stronger and we do see some segments and reaches this mining military applications that are improving and continue to have strong demand. As we look to the fourth quarter we would anticipate probably the market stable going through the fourth quarter. However, as we saw in the first half of 2017, service centers really began to restock inventory levels. In the last quarter and moving forward we see that pretty stable and then putting a lot of pressure on pricing so that’s some - obviously the demand is having is at its best and so that it will put some contraction now pricing moving forward.
John Ferriola:
I might add just two quick points to that Leon, when I look at Q&T products, our Q&T lines are now full that’s an improvement of what we seen in the past but that’s good news. The trade cases are doubling but the amount dumped Q&T imports and frankly the return of the mining and energy business has contributed to demand side. My final comment would be on infrastructure and we feel very strongly that this country is in dire need of a very intensive infrastructure program. We have confidence that at some point in the near future we will see some action and we’re encouraging bipartisan action on this issue. I think there is one thing the hurricane and the damage caused by hurricanes have thought us is that we need to really upgrade our infrastructure throughout the United States. When that happens, we expect to see an improvement in the plate demand as a result of that infrastructure we built. So going into 2018 we see some positive things on the horizon.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Just one follow-up question and I guess a lot of what you walk through outside of the move on inventory the service and centers actually paint some more positive picture for plate on the demand side and particular. Can you give a sense and what's happening in terms of your margins whether or not will be a bit more dramatic like expecting a bit pullback into the fourth quarter. And then a separate question as well if I may, on the Louisiana DRI facility can you please walk us through a bit more detail what really has been the cause you believe of the recent maintenance issues, what other components you have and a more stable Q4. And as you mentioned earlier, you’re just in the process of taking more holistically towards the facility, when should we expect more complete update on what's happening looking forward?
John Ferriola:
Well I’ll ask Jim to address the first issue on margins.
Jim Darsey:
I think when Leon was talking about service and restocking he was talking about the beginning part of the year not what we’re seeing currently. And so now that time is passed and so we're getting a bit of a boost in the first part of the year in the plate market because of that. Then as the year progress, scrap price has moved up and we were unable to move plate prices up with scrap prices. So we started to see a margin compression and that’s where we live now. We’re living in a margin-compressed world today and we think that will continue on to the fourth quarter. However, when we look at end market demand it hasn't changed from end it's probably improved just had that restocking that benefited us at the beginning of the year is over.
Jim Frias:
Since we pack on plate, I might just make an additional comment that when I look at the work we’re doing on grades at our Tuscaloosa facility, as well as our Hertford facility we are now qualified and in some cases in the process of being qualified to be able to supply most of the plates that goes into the large pipe and transmission lines and that's very exciting. One more point on this because I hear this all the time about the U.S. industry as a whole and that is that we’re not able to produce all of the products necessary to appease the tight market in the United States. While Nucor cannot supply all the grades, they’re all available within the U.S. market and there is no reason therefore to have any exceptions on the trade cases relative to pipe. So now while we move on to your final question was on Louisiana, okay and I’ll make some comments on that and Jim you can jump in if there is anything you’d like to add to it. One of the things as we said in the script while we’re looking to accomplish with the modifications that we have to our long-term process that we have been using what we call HYL the new process, we were looking to accomplish improvements in our quality and at the same time decrease the amount of issues of missions and therefore improve the environmental friendliness of the process. And in those two metrics, we’ve been very successful. We’ve been very pleased with the quality of the product that's come out of Louisiana and we’ve been very pleased with the reduction and emissions by using this technology. The challenge of course is mainly liability and we recognize that and we are now in the process of taking time to look at the entire - the engineering of the entire process, making the necessary adjustments as we referred to and taking a holistic approach to the entire process from beginning to end and making the changes that we believe are necessary to improve reliability. And as we go forward in that study we of course will be tapping in for the talent and the lessons that we learnt in our Trinidad facility which is frankly world known for its reliability, as well as quality but particularly its reliability. So that process we expect to take the next couple of months at the end of that period we’ll be able to give you a better explanation of the time that would be involved to make any repairs that we feel are required.
Jim Darsey:
Yes Jim, let me add one other thing and that is that the plant did start its operations up early October. It’s running near full capacity again. We’re doing these things proactively not because we have a problem today its running well and we don't see any reason why it shouldn’t continue to run well. However, when you had the track record we've had, you’d be forced to put your head in the sand it’s not possible to be in other problems we’re trying to be proactive looking at every possible issue that the other things we could do that make the plan even more reliable.
Jim Frias:
That’s a good point Jim because I should have pointed out we might go through this process in segue and reengineering it taking a hard look at from a holistic engineering perspective and come to the conclusion that the improvements that we have made to the process to-date both in the process gas heater and in the furnace itself have rectified the issues. I mentioned several times on this call and I’ll repeat it, the technology itself doesn’t seem to be the issue, it's the equipment that has enabled the technology to result in less emissions in particular that’s been a major change that has given us the most heartburn with the facilities. So we’ve taken a hard look at that we want to find a solution that allows us to continue the improved environmental aspects of producing DRI while still having the improved reliability.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Timna Tanners of Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
So want to ask you a question I asked earlier but I’m just asking with how much the U.S. market is kind of lag the global market and I know the recent price hike maybe addresses that. Is there any structural reason you can think of why the U.S. market will respond to higher global prices or do you think that this has just been something may be related to this time of the year or any other explanation you have would be great?
John Ferriola:
Yes, I definitely do not feel that there is any structural change that is resulting in this. I think it’s more or less a question of lagging and leading cycle. We go through this from time to time where the one or the other one will make a major move in this case we see global pricing move up and at the same time - frankly because of the import service that is occurred in the United States that has had a very negative impact on the demand here in the United States and our ability is to meet that demand. Although demand has improved but the improvement in demand is being up till by being legally traded products. So when we see that again actually coming to an end we see pricing frankly we think its bottomed out we made our price announcements and as you point out $40 move on off bar, we believe the market will support that will reduce the gap. So really Timna I think it’s more of just a case of the lead, lag on what is normally a cyclical pricing environment that compounded a little bit by the impact of illegally traded imports on us – we shifting the demand, the supply in the United States that had a negative impact on pricing and now as I said we believe that is bottomed. There is a little bit seasonality to it. It also I think Timna if you look back over the past several years you’ll see the same kind of thing happening at the end of September or early October things are going to slow down a little but you’ll see an impact on pricing and that occurs more here in the states than on the global marketplace. So that also might have played a role there.
Timna Tanners:
And then kind of a big question just in this whole topic of capital allocation how you think about using cash. Clearly you need to buyback done that for a while so I was just hoping you could comment a little bit more about how you think about buyback in your tool kit and then talking about a new micro mill do we really need more rebar if you could explain that a little bit more. And then how you’re looking at other M&A and options in a little more detail would be great?
John Ferriola:
Let’s start with the first question. I’ll ask Jim to address the buyback issue.
Jim Darsey:
We have done a lot of returning of cash to shareholders over the years and we've used base dividends supplemental dividends and share repurchases. We also look at what we have in our pipeline in terms of free cash flows as we forecast the future and imminent M&A transactions. We always have things in the pipeline we look at what's imminent and about to happen. And so we were encouraged by both the fact that we felt like the stock price was a little undervalued. We had a lot of liquidity and so we will always opportunistic to look at that and we that our dividends this year as we gone deeper in the year our payout ratio is going to be above 40% as we talked in the past that’s something that we think about in terms of what we make sure we’re paying at least that much in dividends. And so that was kind of the way we looked at it is. It was a good opportunity to use some of our extra cash with the stock price where it was.
John Ferriola:
And now we have second question had to do with rebar in our investment in new rebar mills relative to the marketplace, and I’m going to ask Dave to tackle that one.
Dave Sumoski:
Timna, Nucor we are committed to the rebar business and maintaining our low cost position in the market. We believe that micro mill is a viable technology and it will allow us to better utilize our regional approach in growth markets where we have scrap available. We’re confident that we will see some increased investment in infrastructure as well.
John Ferriola:
Dave maybe just trying to add two points to that. One is and you kind of touched upon it, we’re looking to place these markets, so we’re turning to micro mills looking to place them in markets where Nucor has a large scrap supply, as well as we know that there is a good demand that’s being under served in that particular region. So we will look at this being able to give us a good return basically based upon largest and the impact that will have by a low logistics cost and getting scrap to the mill and then from the mill to our customers. And the other point that I would - we mentioned this in the script that I want to emphasize it again. When you look at rebar and merchant bar in general, long products in general I mean that’s not a real cornerstone for our company. In fact I would like to say that it built our company and when I look at the rebar strategy and the expansion of it, one of the five drivers of profitable growth is to improve and increase our downstream of channel to the market and we’ve got a great channel to the market through Harris. So we feel that although you might feel that there is excess or if not need for additional rebar in the United States, we’re confident that based on the location that we’re putting them, the geographical locations that that was going to select and our channel to the market through Harris, these are going to be very good investments with good returns to Nucor.
Jim Frias:
There is a big logistics play and we always approach these markets regionally and we feel that this technology that's proven will allow us to expand on that on that regional approach and focusing where we have scrap available to us and where there are markets already existing.
John Ferriola:
And can I ask you to repeat the third part of the question I know it has something to do with mergers and acquisitions.
Timna Tanners:
Yes there is a one question. So I was just asking about capital allocation broadly and then if you had any more comments about how you're thinking about M&A options or priorities?
John Ferriola:
I can answer that one without even getting help from Jim. How are we looking at growth opportunities and our capital investments going forward, I will tell you what, we have got a full pipeline of opportunities, there is a lot of things that are taking place in the world today, I will show you and most of them, there is a lot of things happening both in the global marketplace and in the United States, a lot of changes, some companies are more challenge than others and that provides opportunities, we want to continue to invest in our downstream businesses to improve our channel, we were looking at additional upstream opportunities to invest in. So I mean we are in a great cash position, this is again one of those cases we’re having a strong, a very strong balance sheet, it gives us opportunities to continue to build upon five drivers of profitable growth and we’ve got a lot of opportunities out there. Now one thing that I would tell you that we will look at every area that we invest and that is value added investments, investments that are going to improve the value added we think that is the higher we move up the value chain, the higher the margin and the more sustainable the business. So the investments that you see as may going forward will all up be in the area of improving our value proposition by providing higher value products to value appreciative customers willing to pay for that higher value and what we will be focusing on.
Operator:
And the next question will come from Curtis Woodworth of Credit Suisse.
Curtis Woodworth:
So I’m going to drill down into the rebar market as well, it has been some are perplexing from my perspective this year and that metal spreads seemingly continue to trend lower, you have the Turkish terror, it seems like all the excess inventory in the calls has been absorbed and that is pretty close, I think Turkey is selling at 525, 530 metrics which as I think about what the price is on a landed basis in the U.S. around like 555, 560. Can you comment on how you see this market sort of evolving into next year and then I know you've been in Washington. It seems like from sitting [indiscernible] John with respect to 232, do you think that from your discussions recently you said this is asset 232 is still going to happen and do you see rebar playing into that? Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Let me start and you can add on. Basically your question is if I’m hearing it correctly is look there is a lot of things that’s evenly changing in the marketplace but still the margins on rebar and pricing continues to drip down. But I think you have to consider is what happened at the beginning part of the year is surge of inflows that came into this. Still a month where we saw a 30% of the market share is slightly higher and 30% of market share going to inflows on rebar. So there is a little bit of a lag in the effects, so we are still seeing some of the negative consequences or the negative impacts, the adverse impact of that surge of imports that was totally out of control beginning of the year and yes with one trade cases, I find that we didn’t get the kind of remedies that we felt we are justifying given the surge and we’re going back in Washington as you noted, we’re going to continue to fight and we’re going to continue to win cases and continuing to appeal on that, we don't get the right outcomes. So I mean it’s really the story of the rebar in the United States this year is all about we summed up in single word and that is or two words illegally traded imports against that, illegally trade imports and the need to stop them and get the same, get the situation on the control. And I’m confident again that given the actions that we’re taking in Washington we will see those positive results. Dave, do you want to add anything to this?
Dave Sumoski:
Just demand is decent, I mean you really hit it. You illegally traded in ports or the thing that really hit us at the beginning to hear those record levels of imports. We’re working away through that import level is down about 21% now, since we have got the - now we’re starting to see rebar coming from other areas besides Turkey. But it’s down we feel with demand is decent and we look forward.
Jim Frias:
I guess on the brighter side we look forward going into the end of the fourth quarter, end of the year and into next year because of the decrease in imports now it’s going to take a while for that surge to work its way through the system no doubt about that. But we will continue to see and we believe we will continue to see imports will lower and that excess demand has been holding steady and possibly maybe improving a little bit again if we see that infrastructure build and other things that are happening, some of the results frankly said it was the devastation from the hurricanes that might though result in a little bit more demand on rebars like we build parts of areas devastated. So all said we think it will pick up a little bit and we love to continue to keep the imports down, you asked a question about 232, so I think so I can take just a minute of your time and I will share with you my thought, you summed it up well. I said this many time, I’m getting a little concerned about the length of time and taking for this to be implemented and I’m concerned about the surge of illegally traded imports that are coming in as a result of the delays. With that said, I’m still confident that President Trump will fulfill his commitments to our industry and that we will see 232 hopefully early part of next year absolutely may be there will be a nice Christmas gift to the industry and we will see at the end of this year. But certainly needed and it has been, we have a commitment to get it and I think as you look at some of the things that are happening even outside of our industry, for example with the Whirlpool 201, which is a different action of course but still points to severity of the imports and the type of holistic remedies that can be offered by Washington and we’re counting on getting one from the steel industry.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Novid Rassouli, Cowen and Company.
Novid Rassouli:
Just to stay on imports for another minute. So are you guys surprise to see imports I guess as high they are given the import arm is pretty much non-existent now and when do you expect imports to return back to a more normalized level as a percentage of the U.S. market?
John Ferriola:
We're not surprised at all at this surge not at all, and the reason is that we see all of the countries and companies that are looking to beat because they know they’ll be some form of trade relief. They’re looking to get every product, every time in that they get in before we either go to the 232 or we continue to win these trade cases that we’re winning. Whether we get 232 or not, we're going to continue to prosecute trade cases with the same vigor that we have over the last 12 to 18 months. And I’m confident we’re going to continue to see the types of wins that we’re seeing. And apparently saw these countries that are breaking our lots because there is only everything that can to get their product in here before that goes into effect. So I’m not surprised to see this surge, I think it’s a direct result of commitment that was made by President early in the year a belief that he was going to go into a Fed sometime in the June time period as was indicated. And with every month that passes that doesn’t go into affect always say it’s continued so to get their product and before something goes into effect. Now the one thing that we’ve been talking of lately in Washington and certainly I have been sharing with the administration is our belief that this should be vocal about the about the fact that these - any results of 232 should be applied eventual actively to the time period when the President made his first commitment back in the early part of the spring of this year. We think that frankly is the right thing to do, but also we believe that if he were – or the administration were to make that kind of commitment it, would put an immediate end to the search and therefore we would not see the damage occurring to the industry who love the administration and took the time it needed to complete the study of the 232. So that’s something I want to mention because that’s something we’ve been pushing very hard in Washington I don't know if we’ll get it but we’re pushing it very hard with the administration.
Timna Tanners:
And John that will be some essentially like critical circumstance on the AD/CVD duty side I think those are the rules for critical circumstance?
John Ferriola:
It would be exactly the rules for critical.
Jim Frias:
I probably should have said easier about just saying we want the same rules applied to 232 that do exist for critical circumstances. And I got to tell you this is critical circumstances, I mean you even the G-20 has come out and they called the crisis in steel today a crisis, okay that needs immediate action that’s the G-20. And the OECD that’s made a very similar comment and I’ll just point out this is that the United States are suffering through this surge and results follow the capacity in China. It’s Europe and Europe is quietly quickly taking action then we are then moving much quicker on to get relief for their steel industry, as well as other regions. India just recently a few months ago put tariffs on all of the Chinese products that come into the country so it’s a global problem other regions are reacting much quicker than the United States sadly which means that we remain the market that they can get in to while our government is dealing more slowly with the issues that other government have dealt with more quickly.
Timna Tanners:
If you don’t mind one quick follow-up, so switching to pricing we've been seeing HRC prices weakening recently, I would assume that you said your primarily due to this high-level imports can you just walk us through kind of fundamental drivers and what you're seeing from your seat as to why maybe why the market will accept and enable the recent price hikes to stick? Thanks John.
John Ferriola:
I’m assuming you’re talking about price hikes on sheet products and…
Timna Tanners:
Yes correct.
John Ferriola:
We watch demand curve very carefully here and we believe that we’ve seen it bottom out. A couple of things that are coming into effect here we see the imports on HRC been drifting down while demand remains constant to drifting up a little bit. So at the end of the day it's always about supply and demand and then we see the market picking up or entry over the last two weeks we’ve seen increased significantly. We feel good about the demand level going into the fourth quarter and particularly into 2008. One area that I would mention in particular is in the oil and gas, that whole market as the energy market has improved much more quickly than we expected to and that’s a particularly strong dynamic for Nucor as to our acquisition of Gallatin we serve that market very heavily. So with oil and gas picking up a little bit imports are down a little bit although automotive has kind of slowdown a little bit, we expect that to slightly pickup again as a result of some of the sadness associated with the hurricanes coming both in Florida and in Texas. We do estimates of anywhere from 700, 1000, to 1 million vehicles that are going to need to be replaced. The one last point that I would make is we didn’t touch upon it too much but in relation to the automotive market picking up Nucor participation in that market and the grades that we continue to develop and offer to that market I feel confident it’s going to help our sheet business. And final point would be that when you look at the MSCDI inventories to sheet products, they have been drifting down in a fairly low level now which we again believe bodes well for fourth quarter and first quarter next year.
Operator:
And we’ll take our next question from Phil Gibbs, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
I just have a clarification on the micro mill investments, you mentioned Illinois and Ohio is targeted regions for expansion. Are we talking about both…?
John Ferriola:
We talked about those two states as areas where we look to invest to expand our merchant products. We talked about other states five or six other states that we're looking at for the rebar though Ohio and Illinois we’re looking at as potential areas to invest, to expand on merchant product offerings.
Phil Gibbs:
So we would be looking at new capacity than in both merchants and rebar if I’m hearing you correctly.
John Ferriola:
You're definitely correct.
Phil Gibbs:
And would you expect us to display other capacity within your system or is this a thought whereby you want to grow production?
John Ferriola:
We want to grow production, now having said as we have a complete plan that place those tip, that takes into account all of our facilities there’ll be some rearranging of markets, they’ll be some plants where we shipped product as a result of this new capacity and rebar. We’ve taken a holistic view of this. We've done a study of all of our merchant and our rebar decisions and how we led our markets and I don’t want to get too many details out here and I am going to. But yes, this is really a function of more fully utilizing our melt in each of our areas and better matching the product offerings in each region to the markets in that region. And as we shift things around, we’ll be taking - we mentioned the word logistics several times here today because we kind of done a study and taken a hard look at how do we match our product offerings to the market that the - from a geographical perspective in which they are located and how can we rearrange that offering optimize on this or minimize on logistical costs. And at the end of the day we said this how many times, Nucor continues to be the low-cost producer in merchant and rebar and frankly in all of products and we continue to drive that cost lower and lower at the end of the day specially in the world with excess capacity, the low cost producer is going to be the winner and here the Nucor believe and continues improve of the continuously look for ways to drive that cost even lower. This is an example of it. The team has a got a great data. The long product group has done a great job at making a detailed market study and now we’re going to be implementing the changes that result in that study.
Phil Gibbs:
And most of the micro mill investments we've seen have been around I want to say between 300 and 400,000 tons, should that be what we’re thinking about right…
John Ferriola:
Yes in that neighbor, we’re not going to give out any specifics at this point but yes in that neighborhood, it would be fair to make that comment.
Phil Gibbs:
And if I could ask a second here just maybe it’s a good segue in both merchant bar and beam but a few weeks ago Nucor had severely cut list prices into the fourth quarter I was just thinking about what the rationale was behind that from a timing standpoint. And should we think there is going to be a little bit of pressure on pricing in fourth quarter? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
I can answer it very simply. The rationale behind it was the fact that our book prices have been targeted by our competitors who offer discounts off of our book price and our book price was becoming not relevant to the market. And so we got it and make it more relevant to the market and as a result of it becoming a little bit less relevant to the market, we lost the market share in the third quarter. And that’s greatly upset me okay, and I could tell you the instructions to the team going forward is that we were going to launch discount off our market price - our full price, excuse me. But I watch discounting offer our book price much more closely and react any discounting off our book price much more quickly as we move forward. So that we always have a relevant book price so that pertains to beams, merchant and rebar. Did that answer your question?
Phil Gibbs:
Yes, you confirm my suspicion I thought you were unhappy with something and I was right okay.
John Ferriola:
Okay, while your suspicion was correct.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Ferriola for closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Thank you. Let me close by as I usually do by saying thank you. Saying thank you to our shareholder, we appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate the opportunity to earn your business every day and we will continue to work hard to earn this business every day. And I also want to say thanks to my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders, and building a stronger future for all of us and our families. And most importantly, thank you all for doing it safely. Thank for your interest in our company. Have a great day.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. You may not disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola – Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jim Frias – Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer Joe Stratman – Chief Digital Officer
Analysts:
Novid Rassouli – Cowen and Company Jorge Beristain – Deutsche Bank Matthew Korn – Barclays Seth Rosenfeld – Jefferies Timna Tanners – Bank of America Dave Gagliano – BMO Capital Markets Philip Gibbs – KeyBanc Capital Markets
Operator:
Good day everyone and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2017 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Latter we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team, Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias; Chief Digital Officer, Joe Stratman; and our other Executive Vice Presidents, Jim Darsey, Ladd Hall, Ray Napolitan, Dave Sumoski, Chad Utermark and Nucor’s newest EVP, Leon Topalian. Leon is a 21-year veteran of our company and will be a strong addition to our executive team. He has responsibility for our beam and plate mills. Leon is a proven leader with experience in our sheet, raw materials, bar and beam businesses. Since 2014 he has severed as General Manager of Nucor-Yamato Steel Company. Thoughtful and orderly succession planning continues to be a significant, strategic initiative throughout the Nucor organization. In addition to Leon’s promotion, we shifted responsibilities among several of our Executive Vice Presidents to broaden their experience. Chad Utermark, is now responsible for our Fabricated Construction Products; Ray Napolitan, is leading our Engineered Bar Products; Joe Stratman is focused exclusively on his responsibilities as our Chief Digital Officer; while Jim Darsey, assumes responsibility for raw materiels. Dave Sumoski, is leading our Merchant and Rebar Products Group; Ladd Hall, continues to be responsible for our sheet mills. The leadership team in Charlotte would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for their excellent work in the first half of 2017 to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. You are the reason our Company’s best years are still ahead of us. Thank you. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias will now review Nucor’s second quarter performance and financial position. Following those comments, I’ll update you on the execution of our strategy for the long-term profitable growth. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks John. Nucor reported second quarter 2017 earnings of $1 diluted share. These results were at the low end of our guidance range given mid-June of $1 to $1.05 per diluted share. Nucor’s second quarter performance represents a significant improvement compared to year ago second quarter earnings of $0.76 per diluted share. But it declined from first quarter of 2017 earnings of $1.11 per diluted share. Our earnings for the first half of 2017 of $2.11 per diluted share represent Nucor’s highest earnings for this period since the cyclical peak of 2008. This performance was achieved despite intensifying pressure from illegally traded steel imports. How we are able to do this is very easy to explain. Nucor’s disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. We are realizing significant returns from our growth investments made during the steel industry’s protracted downturn. Over the past eight years Nucor has invested more than $7 billion. Capital spending of $5 billion and more than $2 billion of acquisitions, continuing a long tradition of our company we have invested aggressively to increase our capabilities for delivering value to our customers and profitable growth for our shareholders. Compared with the first quarter of 2017, our second quarter earnings benefited from significantly improved performance at our direct reduced iron plate mill, rebar fabrication and metal buildings businesses. Although down somewhat in the first quarter level, our sheet mills delivered solid profitability driven by their success in expanding their value-added product offerings and customer relationships. Compared against the year-ago quarter, profitability improved at our sheet, SBQ and plate mills, as well as our raw material businesses. The profitability of our downstream steel products segment declined significantly year-over-year, due to margin compression resulting from a highly competitive market environment and higher steel prices. Surges of dumped and subsidized rebar imports dramatically reduced the performance at our rebar mills and rebar fabrication operations. A quick comment about our tax rate as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 34% for the second quarter and 33.2% for year-to-date 2017. Nucor’s financial position remains strong. With total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 33% at the end of the second quarter. Cash and short term investments totalled approximately $1.6 billion. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until April of 2021. For 2017, we estimate capital spending of approximately $500 million and depreciation and amortization of about $730 million. Earnings in the third quarter of 2017 are expected to be comparable to the range of the first half of 2017’s quarterly earnings. This further supports our previously expressed view that full year 2017 profitability could significantly exceed the level achieved for 2016. Our fabricated construction products order books continue to indicate a favorable outlook for the nonresidential construction market over the balance of 2017. We're also encouraged by the emergence of improving demand in other end-use markets, including energy and heavy equipment. Although automotive market demand is pulling back somewhat historically high levels, we expect to continue Nucor’s growth in this market as we gain share. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages, highly adaptable business model and proven strategies will allow our team to continue to deliver profitable long term growth and attractive returns to Nucor's shareholders. It all begins with making sound capital allocation decisions. Nucor’s capital allocation priorities are clear and they have been consistently practiced over many years. Our first priority is to invest for profitable long-term growth. This strategy is simple and flexible. We are leveraging Nucor’s five drivers to profitable growth. Our second priority is to return cash to our shareholders primarily with cash dividends consistent with our success in delivering long-term earnings growth. Nucor has increased its space dividend for 44 consecutive years. We believe that record is strong evidence of both the sustainability of our business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. Our third priority is to opportunistically repurchase our stock when our cash position is strong and our shares are attractively price. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks Jim. Nucor’s disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. As Jim noted, our second quarter and first half of 2017 earnings represent Nucor’s best performances since the cyclical peak year of 2008. In fact our second quarter of 2017 earnings of $323 million are more than double Nucor’s average second quarter earnings of $150 million achieved during the 2010 to 2016 time period. Our first half of 2017 earnings of $680 million are nearly tripled Nucor’s average first half earnings of $246 million reported over the 2010 to 2016 period. But what pleases me the most is that the more than 24,000 men and women on the Nucor team are delivering profitable growth despite a renewed flood of illegally traded imports into the United States. Here are the numbers that demonstrate the severity of this headwind. Through the first half of 2017, finished steel imports have increased an estimated 15% compared to the same period last year. The estimated finished steel import market share in the months of June 2017 was 29%, matching the record annual level set in 2015. The year-to-date market share for finished steel imports stands at approximately 27%. This is further evidence that traditional trade cases are very often too slow to keep up with the shifting tactics of nations that are abusing the rules of trade. Nucor continues to believe significant work remains to be done to achieve truly effective and timely enforcement of U.S. trade laws. It’s time for comprehensive and broad based remedies that address years of illegal foreign trade practices that have weakened our nation’s economic vitality and our national security. We recommend remedies to be targeted to measurable goals steel import share of U.S. market and our industry’s capacity utilization. It is also critical that appropriate adjustments be made to the remedies if policy targets are not reached. While we may require a trial and error process, to determine what remedies are affected. We are confident that our nation’s leaders will stay in the course until there is free and fair trade in our steel markets. The Nucor team’s advocacy for trade law enforcement is an absolutely critical to our mission of taking care of our customers, our employees and our shareholders. Effective trade law enforcement is required for free and fare completion or trade free on the market distorting practices of some governments. Nucor always drives in a marketplace where winners are determined by real economic advantages earned by efficiency and innovation. Truly free trade is the only path to global prosperity and rising standards of living for everyone. In the current challenging environment, we are encouraged but not satisfied by our second quarter and first half of 2017 performance. The Nucor team remains ready and eager to realize the significant pent-up earnings power we have built with the more than $7 billion invested during the steel industry’s lengthy downturn. To that goal, our focus remains on what is under our control. The execution of our disciplined strategy for long-term profitable growth. The strategy is simple and flexible. We are leveraging Nucor’s five drivers to profitable growth. The five drivers are
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Novid Rassouli with Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Novid Rassouli:
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. On the long products side, given the import pressure that we're seeing on long products and with scrap looking maybe potentially stable, how do you guys think about margins going into the back half of the year for long products?
John Ferriola:
Long products are definitely challenged due to the import surge that we've seen, most notably in our rebar business but certainly also in our merchant business. And you're correct, we do see scrap pricing going out for the next couple of months to be somewhat stable, maybe softening a little bit, but pretty stable. Now having said that, we've got trade cases going on today on rebar, and we fully expect to have successful outcomes on and we believe will help steel with import surge over the next few months. But hoping that to be the case. If it is, we should see a reduction in the imports and with that, improvement in the market and demand for rebar in the United States.
Novid Rassouli:
Thanks and then my second question is a follow-up on that. In your opinion what long product or products do you think are most likely to be included in a Section 232 proposal? Thanks guys.
Joe Stratman:
It is really difficult to say. What we are looking to have happened and what we were executing in Washington. And frankly what we hopeful we will get is a very broad based 232 ruling that will include virtually all of the products. It will not be targeted to any one particular product or to any one particular geographical area, or region of the world. So based on that, our expectations, certainly, our hope and with some degree of confidence, we believe that we will get a 232 that is inclusive of all of the products.
Novid Rassouli:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Jorge Beristain:
Hey guys it’s Guys it's Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank. Question was on the guidance or color you've given for second half. It does seem light. You're kind of saying that 3Q should be similar to what we saw in the first half, but we've just seen a $25 price hike that seems to be followed by your industry peers. And you had mentioned scrap prices are probably going to be stable to down, and you might see some volume pickup in the second half due to 232. So trying to understand why you would be cautious on the second half outlook?
John Ferriola:
Well I'd say that we're optimistically cautious. Of course, we'll just be optimistic as we look out into the quarter. There's always a great deal of uncertainty in our business, well I would say a couple of business. We’re not sure exactly what's going to happen out there. Over the next couple of months we will certainly learn what’s going to happen with 232. That could have a very significant impact. My take on it, frankly, right now is it's probably not going to be everything we hope it to be, but it’s certainly going to be more than what we have right now. So as I look out into the third quarter and I see pricing seems to be holding and improving in Flat-Rolled Products, stability in our other businesses in terms of demand, a scrap number that is stable going forward and potentially some help on 232 and even failing that, I do expect to have continued successes we've seen over the last 12 months on the ongoing cases, the ongoing trade cases, particularly as they apply to long products. We've seen success in plate. We expect to have some more success in plate. And as we look out into the quarter, you've got to remember that a lot of the bookings are already placed. A lot of our sheet businesses on the contract that’s predicated upon CRU numbers from the previous quarter. So when we factor all of that into what we see, at least at the beginning of the third quarter, relatively same performance as in the first half of the year. As you go out further into the year, as I said before, we are cautiously optimistic and we'll see improvement both in demand and in some outcomes out of Washington.
Jorge Beristain:
Okay. Sorry. If I could just squeak another question in for Jim, just on corporate illuminations, we saw them jump about $40 million sequentially. I was just wondering if you could comment on that. I thought we were going to see a lower impact from these kinds of eliminations going forward and they actually went up.
Jim Frias:
Yes, that’s a great question. And the biggest change was related to intercompany profit eliminations related to our DRI raw material business. We have more DRI inventory at the end of the second half than we had at the beginning of the first half, and the margins on that product were increased and we have to eliminate the profits till it comes out at the end as a finished product. And that means not just as a finished steel product business, this is a finished piece of decking if it goes to a deck plant or some part of another steel thing that we've fabricate, piping, tube, et cetera. But overall we look at that number, if we look on the year-to-date basis its $410 million versus $286 million last year. There's two big things that have driven it up year-over-year. One is profitability and how that effects profit sharing. Profit sharing, for our non-officer employees is higher than it was last year by almost $53 million, and intercompany profit eliminations are higher by $68 million. And you're right. Sequentially, quarter-to-quarter, there is a jump and most of that was intercompany profit related to all of our products but mainly, DRI.
Jorge Beristain:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Matthew Korn with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Matthew Korn:
Thank you. Good afternoon everybody.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Matthew Korn:
Another question on trade and imports if I could. If policy relief on imports that you had talked about for whatever reason, it doesn't materialize in the near term and say, the rebar market continues to suffer under import pressure it has been. Does that change the calculus for you at all on say, the investment in Marion? And then bigger picture with any of the investment plans that you are currently forming will any of them be predicated on your getting trade relief. Could you see yourself in the position of saying look we have to adapt parts of our long held strategy for growth in the domestic market unless we get more assurance from the government on this really important topic?
John Ferriola:
Well let me start by saying absolutely not. We work on what we can control, we focus on what we have under our control. And that’s what we predicate our business plans upon, and on investment strategies upon and that is what we have built them upon. We know what we can control. We know what we can import. We can influence what happens in Washington. We cannot control them. So our focus has always been on what we can control. The investment strategies that we've made, the plans that we've laid out. I'd be happy to talk about them if you want more detail on them. But it's been part of our strategy since our company began to invest for the long term. We are long term-focused company. The investments we make are for the long term. The things that happen over the next couple of months in terms of what comes out of Washington and I understand there's a lot of focus on that. To me, that's icing on the cake, that's gravy, that's something that whatever comes out – and I'm sure that with something coming out that's beneficial, but what level remains to be seen but it will be beneficial. Whatever does come out will be a positive to the plans that we've already laid out that we're confident will continue to focus on long term, profitable growth.
Jim Frias:
Does that answers your question?
Matthew Korn:
Yes sir, I appreciate that. It does. Let me then take you up on your offer and if you could give me any latest update on the progress there, especially cold mill there in Arkansas. How's that coming along?
John Ferriola:
Will I’ll be a little bit broader if I can. We’ve been talking about that one specifically. Its well, going extremely well. It's right on – it’s early in the process, but certainly, it's right on track. And we have that cold mill going in at Hickman. That is going to do wonders to advance us even higher than we are currently in the value-added automotive market. It's a very specialized mill. It's a third-generation, ultrahigh strengths. That will allow us to continue the progress that we've made, the outstanding progress that we've made in penetrating automotive. That will then be further supplemented by our automotive-quality gal-line in Mexico, with our partners at JFE. As you know, those guys are premier, automotive suppliers known on a global basis. For them to be partners with us, is just a credit to what our team has done in terms of advancing and to automotive, the quality and service that we have been able to deliver. You add that to another investment we're making at our Gallatin facility, another gal line. So we did a very just a hot band gal line. It's ultra-wide, it will be the widest in North America. It's extremely heavy gauged. Frankly, it's just about twice as heavy that's produced currently today in the Midwest, which is a great market for galvanized, a growing market. So you add all of this together, we've got a very well-focused – and I'm – it's too early to share some of the other plans that we have on our long product side. But I can assure you that we are really developing a long-term strategy to deal with some of the issues that are happy to tell you long products. So altogether, answering your question, we've got a definitive plan for long-term profitable growth. We're executing on it well, and it's not influenced by what's coming out of Washington. It's influenced by what we can control. And whatever comes out of Washington will be gravy for us as we go forward.
Matthew Korn:
Thanks for the comment John.
Operator:
And next you will hear from Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Good afternoon. Two questions. Starting out on the hot-rolled coil market, you earlier referenced increased competition in HRC as being a key drag in the second quarter. Would you attribute this behavior principally to importers? Or are you also seeing more aggressive behavior from domestic peers, being some the new entrants, like Big River in Mingo? And in more recent weeks, as pricing is begin to stabilize and actually recover, are you seeing any notable shift in that competitor behavior? I'll stop there, please.
John Ferriola:
Sure. Well, we always worry more about the imports. Frankly, there's new competition coming on domestic competition. We've been living with that for the last 40 to 50 years. We're going to live with it for more years going forward. And frankly, we welcome that competition. We enjoy good competition on a fast, level playing field. We do not fear competition on a level playing field. We are confident in our team's ability given a level playing field to be successful without a doubt. So more of those comments are focused on the import situation. And when I look at the different markets that we are participating in and the advantages that we have in some of those markets, automotive, construction, energy, just being a bunch of – just a couple of names to put out there. We are very confident in our ability to compete extremely well against domestic competitors on a level playing field. The challenge that we have and we will continue to fight, and I know that we will continue to have more success on is with imported products.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Thank you. And then the second question on the rebar fabrication side, your comment seemed quite dire, I suppose, in terms of where you see profitability for that business. Following the recently announced antidumping duties early in the year, has that, at all, changed your competitive behavior and the level of margins that you seeing in the fab side?
John Ferriola:
Well, I certainly didn't use the word dire, okay? Challenged, maybe, okay, but not dire. And once again, you're spot on with your follow-up comments. We are having success with rebar on imports, on trade cases. We will continue to have success. It's a little bit of a whack a mole game. You've heard me use that term before. You need to try different countries. You try different companies. But I will say, as I've said several times before and I think we're actually seeing some of this coming to fruition as we talk about more holistic solutions like 232. My comment being that Washington is beginning to understand our elected officials, the administration, beginning to have a better understanding of the consequences of imports not only on our economy but on our national security. And as a result, we are seeing more and more support for trade cases and for more holistic solutions. But particularly on the trade cases, we're seeing much greater success than we've had in the past, quicker turnarounds. There's been several things that have come to into effect in terms of enforcement that are now supporting the trade cases as they get successfully prosecuted. So yes, I'm confident that we're getting the handle, getting our hands around imports. It's always going to be a battle, but I continue to see more and more success and with that, a better competitive situation on rebar, rebar fabrication and frankly, on all of our products.
Seth Rosenfeld:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
And your next comes from Timna Tanners with Bank of America.
Timna Tanners:
Hey, good afternoon, gentlemen.
John Ferriola:
Hey Tim, how are you?
Timna Tanners:
Hello. So I've just wanted to recycle, you guys are green, so let's recycle a question I asked earlier today. If we believe Section 232 results in any sort of reduction in imports, the domestic industry is running really hard on a flat-rolled overall. And assumingly with OCTG, if it gets hit as well, you need to produce that domestically. So assuming you would get pretty tight and you and Steel Dynamics are looking downstream, but not adding more sheet capacity. So I was just wondering, are you considering also adding any flat-rolled capacity? Is there any flex in your system? Or are you more focused on galvanizing? And if so, are we not worried about given auto weakening any excess galvanized in the market?
John Ferriola:
Okay. A bunch of questions there. Okay, wondering let me see if I can handle them one at a time. I'll start with a question about if we get a good ruling on 232, we have concerns about being able to meet the needs in the marketplace and my first answer to that is absolutely not. You asked if we have any flex. I believe, what you meant by that was the ability to produce more steel in our existing facilities. Nucor is also doing that. We've been doing that forever. We will continue to do that. We will find ways to get product out that we need to meet our customers’ demand. As I made the comment in Washington a couple of weeks ago when I was asked a similar question, I said bring it on. Give us a chance. Let us show you what we can do. We will take care of that. Now for the longer term answer to that though on the 232, what – why we're pushing so hard forward 232 and what holistic solution, is that it provides an environment of sustainability so that we can continue to invest for the future. You have to create an environment where you get the right returns for the investments where you know that you have certain operating utilization rates based upon being able to have a reasonable limit on the market penetration of imports. Once that's accomplished, there's no doubt in my mind that Nucor will continue to invest. Let's look at it this way. We invested $7 billion without having that, okay. What do you think we would do if we had a sustainable environment, that we'd be confident on getting the returns? There's no doubt in my mind and there's no limit to looking over at Mr. Frias and I’m absolutely confident that there's no limit to our buildup – there's always a limit but it that a pretty high limit our ability to raise the capital that we would need to able to make significant investments, to meet the future needs of our customers and that's in, of course, all of our products. Rebar, merchants, plane, sheets to my you name it, HSS. As I've said in Washington, give us – give our industry the opportunity to show you what we can do by providing a sustainable environment in which the industry can operate in, and I am confident we will meet the needs both militarily, and commercially and economically. Now is there another question in this? So I've think there's the galvanized.
Timna Tanners:
Yes, I didn’t in light in auto weakening, and so on. Yes.
John Ferriola:
Well, auto weakening is taking place. There's no doubt that it's plateaued. I'm hearing numbers around 7.1 units versus 7.5 units, okay. There's no doubt in my mind that there's some weakening going to be occurring. It's only to the effect. I would tell you this, at the end of the day, our part – our market share of automotive continues to grow. So when you look at how we've gone over the last several years and how we anticipate growing over the next couple of years, we'll be getting a bigger piece of a smaller pie. So in terms of our growth in automotive, we're confident we can continue to grow in automotive. And in terms of more general comments on the galvanizing line, if you look at Nucor, we tend to be underweighted and galvanized. Where the galvanized represents about 18% of our product today, of our sheet products today, most of our competitors have numbers closer to 30% to 35%. If you look at our existing coating lines, Timna, we've been running at full capacity, full utilization since 2014 on our galvanizing lines. So it only makes sense for us to continue to grow that business. I'd also point out that the galvanized consumption in the U.S. is growing. It's expected to grow pretty significantly between now and 2020. And as that – as a further comment, the two lines that we are building, I've touched upon this early but I'll reiterate. The two lines that we're building are not traditional lines. Our line at Gallatin is ultra-wide. It's going to be a wide, heavy gauge. Goes up to 0.25 inch. Our current capacity, I think, is 0.125, maybe. So it's about twice what of we can currently produce. It's going to be located in the Midwest, which is the largest galvanized consuming region in the country. So we're confident that there will be room for us there because it is more of a niche. It's not just another galv line. And the same is true in our mill – galvanizing facility we’re building in Mexico. It's not just another coating line. It's a very specialized, automotive-grade, very high spec galvanizing line that we feel will meet the needs of advanced deals that are coming down the road. Point out one more thing quickly, and that is the location of it in Mexico is perfect. We're surrounded by automotive companies that have been relocating there. We've got a great Japanese partner that will help us get into some other companies that we haven't been able to get into yet.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. If I can, I'll ask a easy follow-up, or have I ask all of them, sir?
John Ferriola:
So far you've been asking them, so go ahead.
Timna Tanners:
One easy follow-up, I promise. Just if you could update us on where you think we are in the construction cycle. I know in the past you’ve mentioned that this time around, you expect it to cap out lower than last environment what we experienced. Just want to get your latest thoughts on the cycle, please.
John Ferriola:
Well, if we use 2007 as kind of the peak market, I would say we're somewhere around 65% of where we were back in 2007. So it's getting better. It's continuing to improve. But it's – as I've said in the past, it's a slow rate of improvement. When I look at this particular year, it's kind of – I think it's going to be an interesting year. So I recently projected a growth of about 4%, 5% over the course of the year. If you look at the first half of this year, you had to have some negative growth somewhere in the neighboring of about 3% to 4% negative. So for that to come out and hit 5% I think is probably unrealistic. I would put the number today, maybe closer to overall flat for the year or up 1%, 2017 over 2016. But even with that small differential, what that does bode well for us as a second half of the year in construction. When we look at – and that's supported by some things we do see. The guards have this thing they call the momentum indicator. That's positive. The ABI is positive. We always look to our downstream businesses, to our auto entry rate to get an indicator of construction markets going forward and that's also a positive. When we look in particular areas, we see one area of nonresidential construction that has been somewhat positive, has been infrastructure, particularly on the bridges. For us that's good news for our structural business and particularly, with some investments we made recently with wide [ph] piling and the QST. So – and we are still hoping for some news on our infrastructure build, which would prolong the cycle. And I've spoken a lot about the nonresidential construction, but I will point out that residential constructions having a good year. That's up about 4%, or 5%. And while it doesn't have the same impact on steel consumption, you do have some impact in terms of white goods, appliances and some of those other kinds of things. So overall, second half of 2017, I think, will be better and the first half on construction, at the end of the day, we'll be up maybe 1% year-over-year.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, great. Thanks for your update. I appreciate it.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Let’s move to Dave Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead sir.
Dave Gagliano:
Thanks for taking my questions. I just had a couple of short term specific questions. Just on the things were a little different than what we're expecting side of it. Pricing in sheet had bounced up quite a bit in the quarter. I was wondering if you could to explain a little bit more as to what happened there. And also, historically, plate volumes, which have been very strong the last two quarters. Historically, when we have strong plate volumes a couple of quarters, the next quarter's a big drop off. I just want to make sure there's no reason to expect a similar drop off in the third quarter.
John Ferriola:
I'm going to address the sheet question, and I'm going to ask you to repeat the second question. I didn’t quite hear the word you're asking about. So first of all, let's talk about sheet pricing. For us, it's a couple of things. Number one, some portion of it can be attributed to mix. Also, as I've said a couple of times on the call and in the past, we continue to move up the value chain our sheet products. So that has helped us on our pricing. In terms of the general increases that we've seen, we have a $30 increase a couple of weeks ago. That's been well-supported by the marketplace. We're collecting that well. And the most recent $25 one [indiscernible] went out last night, as we've said in the past, we don't go out with price increases unless that we are very confident that we're able to collect some of the things that we look at. We look at the demand, which as I said, continues to look strong. We look at service center inventories, which continue to be very low. One of the other things that’s helped us at Nucor with our pricing, frankly, on our Flat-Rolled Product is the addition of our new business in HSS. A lot of our spot – what was spot funds are now going downstream into our own businesses. So that gives us a little bit more flexibility. It evens out our mix a little bit better between hot band and cold because we – hot band is not going out to the marketplace. So I've given you several reasons and hopefully, that answers your question. Could you repeat the second part of the question because I couldn’t catch that one word?
David Francis:
Sure that’s helpful by the way. I was asking about your plate volumes, which have been obviously very strong the last two quarters and I just wanted to make sure there's no reason to expect those to come down at all in the quarter.
John Ferriola:
I apologize. I was putting those two words together and I couldn't figure out what the word was okay. Plate volumes continue to be strong. There's several reasons we can give for that. First one that I will point out is our Hertford County plate, plate mill with its heat treating; new on the plate that we're able to produce there with some military applications. That's been good for us. Our new addition mill in Longview, Texas. Although that's still coming online, it's – we've been able to introduce a lot of new grades there. That's helped us there. And we've had a positive outcome on the trade case. So there's a – again, I mentioned earlier, bridges. That's obviously – a lot of plate goes in the bridges. So that's been good for us. I got to tell you then, this is a shout out to our teams on the plate side. They've done a great job not only on new grades that have been developed, but new applications that they're going into, new customers and frankly, the team down in Longview. Tell you what, guys, you're doing a good job. Please keep it up. Just keep doing it safely, okay? So no, I don't expect to see any significant change in our plate volumes. And again, if we get the kind of results we're hoping out of Washington, not only would I not expect to see a decrease, I would absolutely expect to see an increase in volumes and other aspects of our plate business.
David Francis:
Okay, Thank you
Operator:
And your next question comes from Philip Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
Thank you. Good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon Philip.
Philip Gibbs:
I had a question, John, on the bar shipments in the quarter. I think almost 1.5 million tons, the best from a quarterly perspective we've seen, I think, in three years or more. Just curious in terms of what drove that relative to the last several quarters? Is it efforts to regain market share? Has it a picked up in SBQ, rebar? Don't want to be too leading here, but just want to understand here the strength in the quarter.
John Ferriola:
I'd be happy to answer it. Fully stable on rebar and merchant bar. That's been pretty stable. We really are focused on our SQB business, excuse me, okay, and particularly out of our Memphis facility and our Norfork facility in terms of new grades. In Memphis, we've added the heat treating, which has really helped our business. Our cold finished business is getting better all the time, and that's another downstream outlet for our SBQ. So our billet business, another of our SBQ billet business has been strong the last couple of quarters. So what's really grown, driven the change over the last couple of quarters has been our SBQ business. And of course, that means also our cold finished business beyond that. So that's what really drove – to what drove the business. One of the things you can't have more volume coming out of SBQ if you're not getting more approvals and qualifications from automotive customers our heavy equipment customers, specialty customers. And as such, adding all of our products as we continue to drive up the value chain become higher-value, more specialized. We're able to pick up not only more volume, but better pricing that goes along with it. So hats off to the team at SBQ and cold finished. Thanks for the job you're doing. Keep it going.
Philip Gibbs:
I appreciate that, second question here. For the third quarter, are you anticipating your volumes will be pretty similar to where they've been in the second quarter? Or should we expect some seasonality? And then adjunct is, on the corporate and eliminations, I know we heard some of the explanation earlier, but should we expect that to taper down a bit versus the second quarter?
John Ferriola:
I'll tackle the first part then throw it over to Jim, okay. In terms of our volumes, I would say that we certainly see a stability going forward with a fairly positive view that they'll go up if we see smoke. Positive view coming out of Washington will have an impact on our volumes, and it will be a positive impact, without a doubt. So without anything coming out of Washington, pretty stable going forward, maybe a slight uptick. But with any help coming out of Washington, which we do expect. President Trump has made some commitments to us, and we expect him to stand behind those commitments. We're certainly working to make that happen. If it does, we could see some volume improvements as well as other parts of our business. Jim?
Jim Frias:
So Phil, if you may recall in my comments as part of our script last quarter, I said that I expected intercompany eliminations to be lower in the second quarter, and I was wrong. So I'll caveat my statement with that week. We had about $32 million of the total in Q1 profitable or – corporate eliminations was profiting – Intercompany profit related. The second quarter's about to be $7 million. I think it's going to be down in the third quarter compared to what it was in the second, maybe closer to the first quarter. But it depends on how much inventory we have and depends on high margins we have. If intercompany inventories get higher and if margins get higher, then we could have a bigger expense. If inventories stay flat and margins stay flat, it will be close to zero.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay, that's really helpful. And should we anticipate that DRI can see another leg of upside here in the third quarter as you may begin either little bit into some lower cost inventory and have a full complement of assets up and running? Thanks
John Ferriola:
You mean relative to intercompany eliminations, is that your question.
Philip Gibbs:
No, just relative to itself and the [indiscernible].
Jim Frias:
Okay I’ll answer that. There are plans in Louisiana and in Trinidad have been running very, very well, running full volume, high quality, great yields, good products and we fully expect them to run that way throughout the third quarter the rest of the year, 2018, 2019,2020 and beyond.
Philip Gibbs:
Thank you.
Operator:
And it appears we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. John Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Let me just conclude by saying thank you to our shareholders. We really appreciate your confidence and your support. As always, thank you to our customers. We appreciate your business. Without you, we're not around. So thank you for your business. I want to say a special thank you to my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And once again, that does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for joining us you may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO and President James Frias - CFO, EVP and Treasurer
Analysts:
Curtis Woodworth - Credit Suisse AG Jorge Beristain - Deutsche Bank AG Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies LLC Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Novid Rassouli - Cowen and Company Alessandro Abate - Berenberg, Research Division
Operator:
Welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2017 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date. Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team, Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias; Chief Digital Officer, Joe Stratman; and our other Executive Vice Presidents, Jim Darsey, Ladd Hall, Ray Napolitan, Dave Sumoski and Chad Utermark. Our leadership team is joining you today from our Washington, D.C. office. I have just returned from a meeting with President Trump and Secretary Ross, where we took another important step in advancing our commitment to work together to level the playing field for American manufacturers. We would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for their excellent work in the first quarter to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. You are the reason our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you. We also want to extend a very warm welcome to the newest members of our Nucor family, the approximately 120 teammates who joined us with the first quarter acquisitions of our bar grating facility in Bourbonnais, Illinois and our Vulcraft-Omega Joist plant in Alberta, Canada. Nucor is very proud and excited to have you on our team. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias, will now review Nucor's first quarter performance and financial position. Following those comments, I will update you on the execution of our strategy for long term profitable growth. Jim?
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Nucor reported first quarter of 2017 earnings of $1.11 per diluted share. These results were in line with our guidance range given in mid-March of $1.10 to $1.15 per diluted share. They represent significant improvement compared to the fourth quarter 2016 earnings of $0.50 per diluted share and first quarter of 2016 earnings of $0.27 per diluted share. It is also Nucor's highest quarterly earnings since the third quarter of 2008. Earnings for the most recent quarter were highlighted by significantly improved performance for our steel mills segment, led by our sheet, bar and plate mills. This segment also benefited from attractive profit contributions from our recent tubular products acquisitions. Our raw materials segment also delivered very strong improvement on both a year-over-year and linked quarter basis. That was despite the burden of a 5-week unplanned outage during the quarter at the Louisiana direct reduced iron facility. More than offsetting that drag were performance improvements from our David J. Joseph Company scrap business and our direct reduced iron facility in Trinidad. The David Joseph team has done excellent work reducing the cost structure of their operations and working more closely with Nucor steel mills that benefit profitability across the enterprise. In addition to their solid profit contribution, the new iron team at the DRI facility in Trinidad set a production record in the just-completed quarter. A quick comment about our tax rate as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from noncontrolling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 32.4% for the first quarter. Nucor's financial position remains strong. With total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 34% at the end of the first quarter. Cash and short term investments total approximately $1.7 billion. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until April of 2021. For 2017, we estimate capital spending of approximately $550 million and depreciation and amortization of about $730 million. While recent trade case decisions have begun to reduce the flood of dumped and subsidized products from foreign producers, imports continue to negatively impact the U.S. steel industry overall. Through the first quarter this year, imports remain at a stubbornly high 25% share of U.S. market. Certain countries continue to brazenly break and circumvent our nation's trade laws. While significant progress is being made, there is a tremendous amount of work still to be done. Nucor will continue to be proactive and aggressive in pursuing effective and timely enforcement of U.S. trade laws. At the same time, we will also work to call attention to the issue of global steel production overcapacity. That overcapacity is the result of the trade-distorting practices of some governments. Earnings in the second quarter 2017 are expected to increase compared to the first quarter. This further supports our previously expressed view that full year 2017 profitability could significantly exceed the level achieved for 2016. In the second quarter, our sheet mills should experience further gains in price realizations as a portion of their contract sales are priced on a lagging quarterly basis. We expect our plate mills to benefit from recent trade actions that provide a more level playing field. Our fabricated construction products order books indicate that the nonresidential construction markets have regained momentum in 2017. That, along with seasonal trends, will benefit the second quarter performance of our steel products segment. We're also encouraged by the emergence of improving demand in other end-use markets, including energy and heavy equipment. With stronger demand for iron units, our raw materials business should be solidly profitable over the balance of this year. We also expect intercompany profit eliminations to have a smaller impact on earnings in the second quarter. We're confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages, highly adaptable business model and proven strategies will allow our team to continue to deliver profitable long term growth and attractive returns to Nucor's shareholders. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. On our January earnings call, I observed that the Nucor team was ready and eager, ready and eager to realize the significant pent-up earnings power we have built during the steel industry's lengthy downturn. Today, my message is unchanged. Our focus remains on the execution of our disciplined strategy of long term profitable growth. We're certainly encouraged by our strong first quarter performance. It provides additional evidence that our strategy is working. But we view the first quarter results as just an early indication of the long term payoff we expect from the more than $7 billion we have invested since the last cyclical peak. Our objective and our record over many decades is to deliver stronger profitability throughout the economic cycle. We describe this work as building higher highs in Nucor's cyclical peak earnings power. The strategy is simple and flexible. We're leveraging Nucor's 5 drivers to profitable growth. The 5 drivers are, one, strengthen our position as a low-cost producer; two, achieve market leadership positions in every product line in our portfolio; three, move up the value chain by expanding our capabilities to produce higher-quality, higher-margin products; four, expand and leverage our downstream channels to market to increase our steel mills' baseload volume for sustained results; and five, achieve commercial excellence to complement our traditional operational strength. I will now update you on the highlights of our team's recent progress implementing our strategy for profitable growth. During the first quarter, we completed the acquisitions of Southland Tube and Republic Conduit. Together with the late 2016 acquisition of Independence Tube, we have established a new platform for profitable growth, Nucor Tubular Products. This value-added business has annual shipments of approximately 1 million tons. I am very pleased to report that our Nucor Tubular Products team had an excellent first quarter, with both strong financial performance and achieving synergies with their teammates at Nucor's sheet mills. We're also very encouraged by the reception of our customers to our broader capability to serve construction markets. Our expansion into the hollow structural sections or HSS and electrical conduit, niches of the pipe and tube market, squarely hits the target on all 5 of Nucor's strategic drivers to profitable growth. We immediately gained market leadership positions in HSS and electrical conduit as the second-largest producer of both products. And like Nucor's other operations, these tubular businesses are built around extremely efficient manufacturing, a highly variable cost structure and continual improvement. Equally important, their cultures share Nucor's strong emphasis on the value of our team members. Both the HSS and the electrical conduit products offer significant value-added opportunities regarding quality, reliability and servicing the short lead times inherent in construction projects. These factors are why import penetration in these products is limited compared to the overall pipe and tube market. Our value-added tubular products provide an attractive channel to market for Nucor's hot-rolled sheet products. Prior to establishing our tubular products growth platform, our channel to market opportunities for our approximately 6 million tons of annual hot band sales volume were very limited compared to our overall steel mill product mix. The addition of HSS and electrical conduit tubing to our portfolio is an important step forward in Nucor's pursuit of commercial excellence as North America's most comprehensive supplier of steel solutions to the construction and infrastructure markets. Without a doubt, Nucor is the strongest name in construction steel and steel products. Congratulations and thank you to our tubular products teammates for a great start in building this exciting new platform for Nucor's profitable growth. Please keep it going. Nucor's fabricated construction products group also completed 2 acquisitions during the first quarter. In February, our Fisher & Ludlow bar-grating business acquired a facility in Bourbonnais, Illinois. With expected annual production of 50,000 tons from this facility, this acquisition is an important step in growing our North American market leadership for bar-grating products. It almost doubles our market share. In March, our Vulcraft joist and deck business acquired a facility in Alberta, Canada. This acquisition complements our current start-up of Vulcraft's new joist and deck plant in Ontario, Canada. Nucor's plate mill group has rapidly and very effectively leveraged its broader product offering provided by the August 2016 acquisition of our Longview, Texas specialty plate mill. Nucor Steel Longview produces specialty plate products ranging from 1 to 12 inches thick and up to 138 inches wide. This is a significant expansion of Nucor's plate portfolio as the capabilities of our North Carolina and Alabama plate mills reach up to 3 inches thick and 120 inches wide. The addition of Longview's capabilities positions Nucor's plate mill group to expand our overall share in a number of attractive segments that include bridges, military armor and tool steels. Giving Nucor full access to the bridge market, Longview recently developed a difficult-to-make grade of bridge steel and a 4-inch thickness. Longview also began first-time production of military armor for tank and submarine applications. Tool steels are another new growth opportunity for our Longview team and they are already pursuing it. These examples are just the beginning of how our new one-stop shopping capability will allow Nucor to profitably grow our plate business. The long term strategic and commercial value of our Longview acquisition is clearly very significant. At the same time, I want to recognize and thank our Longview teammates for all that they have accomplished in the short time that they have been part of the Nucor family. It is worth noting that they continue to set production and shipping records. Thank you and please keep it going. Nucor's profitable growth strategy is always anchored by our team's continual drive to enhance our position as a low-cost producer and market leader in all of our businesses. That focus is the bedrock foundation for delivering sustainable long term growth in our profitability that rewards our shareholders with attractive returns on their valuable capital. Nucor Steel Marion recently announced a rolling mill modernization that is a perfect example of this work. Our Marion, Ohio bar mill announced in March an $85 million investment to upgrade its rolling mill and other related equipment. Nucor Steel Marion is Ohio's largest producer of rebar and sign post with annual capacity of more than 400,000 tons. The mill is strategically located in a prime market for rebar consumption and one with aging infrastructure. Our Marion team recently celebrated the mill's 100th year of steelmaking. With this project, we're investing in the next 100 years of profitable growth for Nucor Steel Marion. These are just some of the exciting initiatives we're implementing to drive profitable growth. We continue to make excellent progress on a number of other projects. Equipment contract negotiations were completed for our Arkansas sheet mill's specialty cold mill, with start-up expected in late 2018. Groundbreaking is set for later this quarter at our 50-50 joint venture with JFE Steel of Japan to build and operate a facility to produce galvanized sheet steel serving the growing Mexican automotive market in Central Mexico. Nucor achieved strong first quarter growth in the automotive market as our sheet and engineered bar teams expanded both customer base and penetration of product platforms and momentum continues to build with the rollout of Nucor-Yamato's major new structural steel product introductions. After reviewing our first quarter financial results and progress implementing our profitable growth strategy, one key point stands out to me. Nucor's success is the result of our focus on continual improvement and increasing the value we deliver to our customers. That's why Nucor always thrives in a marketplace of free and fair competition, where winners are determined by real economic advantage. For a company such as Nucor, with its unique position of strength and proven ability to execute its strategy for profitable growth, this is a time of great opportunity. Our team is both ready and eager to demonstrate the pent-up earnings power that we have built into our company during the industry downturn. I am absolutely confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. We appreciate your interest in Nucor and would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we'll go first to Curt Woodworth from Crédit Suisse.
Curtis Woodworth:
I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit more, John, about some of the interaction you've had with the Trump administration. And specifically, the Section 232 investigation launched today. I think that was pretty unexpected by the industry. Can you just comment on how you see sort of that -- the particulars of that investigation, specifically with respect to how imports could be affecting U.S. national security and any insight into how you think that process will unfold?
John Ferriola:
Well, I have to tell you, we were a little bit surprised by it also. It came up very quickly, although President Trump mentioned during his press comments today that he and Secretary Ross have been working on this for several months. So it was unexpected to us, but they've been planning this for a while. I have to tell you, we welcome an investigation into the impact of imported steel upon our national security, particularly given that many of these steels are imported illegally, violating our trade laws. And so we're happy to see this. I think it was a bold move by the President. He clearly set a time frame that's aggressive and it's a good thing for the industry. You asked about, in particular, how does this really impact national security. And when you talk about steel, clearly, steel plays a major role in national security. Case in point, look at the armored plate grades that we've been developing at Nucor. I mean, submarine applications, tank applications. There's numerous applications for steel in military use and it is critical to our national security. As the President said earlier today, we really don't want to be dependent upon a foreign country to provide the steel we need to defend the citizens of the United States. So I'm very excited about it. I can tell you that Secretary Ross is engaged during the meeting this morning, the signing ceremony this morning. President Trump was engaged with the industry, spoke to several of us and asked very good, pointed questions about trade and what we were specifically looking for. And we were quick to point out that all we were really looking for was a level playing field. Given that, we expressed our confidence that we could compete successfully against any country or company if we had that level playing field. So good news for the industry. We're excited about it. We've all committed to work with the President to help him understand the nuances of steel and its application in national security.
Curtis Woodworth:
Okay. And then just a quick follow-up regarding the HSS and electrical conduit market, the 1 million tons of, I guess, capacity or volume. What percent of that is being supplied internally by you right now? And where do you think that figure could get to, say, over the next 6 to 12 months?
John Ferriola:
Right now, we're supplying about 75% to 80% of that product. And we've been working over the last couple -- frankly, the last couple months to work with them so that we can get up to these levels of sub-80% and 90%. And I think that that's probably where we'll peak out, somewhere at about 90%. But there's many other things that come along with this. I'll just maybe mention a few of them that I'm sure you're aware of, but just to highlight. When you look at Nucor and you look at our sheet business, without a doubt, we're hot band-centric. And yet, when you look at the amount of our product in hot band that went downstream compared to our other steel products, we were somewhat underweighted. So this really came at a good time for us and also, with the addition of Gallatin to the Nucor family. But it also provides a great downstream outlet for one of our larger sheet segments. And of course, this is a value-added play. It's one of the key points of our -- key drivers of profitable growth. One other point that I would mention, since we were just talking about imports when you raised that question earlier, because of its application to the construction industry with the short lead times that are -- that go along with construction, the product tends to be somewhat import-resistant. So we see that as a plus also.
Operator:
Next, we'll go to Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge Beristain:
My question is about service center inventories which remain quite low. And I'm just wondering what you have heard is the explanation for that. And do you think that the industry itself could get caught unawares in terms of having to do a rapid restock in the second half?
John Ferriola:
Well, without a doubt, the inventory levels, as you mentioned, are extremely low. Our sheet products are about 1.8 months on hand. I can't -- frankly, I can't remember the last time they were that low. Plate inventories are somewhere around 2.3 months on hand, also well under the normal PIV rate. And in terms of the impact or what we're hearing as to why that's been happening, I guess, part of it has been that the service center industries have been waiting to make sure that what they're seeing today in the balance between supply and demand and its impact on pricing is longer term. They want to make sure that this wasn't one of those short pops. And I think that they began to accept the fact that the strength in the market is longer term and we'll begin to see them rebuilding those inventories. At the end -- also, bear in mind that at the end of the year, you've got a -- all these service centers work hard to manage their working capital and that happens at the end of each year. Typically, as you go into the first quarter, it didn't have as much of a demand as you've seen going into this first quarter, so I think it was harder for them to rebuild their inventories as rapidly as they've done in the past. If you look at their shipments out of the service centers, you'll see they were also very high during the first quarter. So that made it more difficult for them to rebuild those inventories. So we expect them to, over time, continue the order entry rate to rebuild those inventories to a more normal level. And we're awaiting their orders.
Jorge Beristain:
Okay. And then on the scrap price outlook, it's again been really volatile. But coming off recently and people are pointing toward lower iron ore prices, particularly the seaboard market, what's your view on scrap in the second half? Is it going to track a little bit of the raw materials like iron ore? Or is it more related to pig iron? And do you see the U.S. market kind of being stable, I guess, for scrap pricing going forward?
John Ferriola:
As we see going forward, we see it more or less stable now. Of course, there's always going to be small moves up and down. But given the situation with iron ore, we don't see any major moves up. In fact, we see some downward pressure. How far is up is anybody's guess, but we think we'll see it go down. Frankly, you mentioned pig iron. I can tell you that our last pig iron buy was down from the previous buy and the negotiations for future pig iron is even lower. So we see pig iron peaking. We see iron ore going down. All of that bodes for scrap to be steady or go down slightly.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
I have a question on the plate market in the U.S. right now. You flagged that in the release as being one area that drove the strength in your steel mills segment. Can you just talk a little bit about where you see the current supply-demand balance? Clearly, you had a bit of a benefit as one of your major peers had an extended outage over the past 1.5 months or so. As they come back into the market, are you at all concerned that some of the recent price momentum could begin to fade? Or do you think that underlying demand has recovered such that, ultimately, this recent price strength can be more sustainable into the back half of the year?
John Ferriola:
Well, I'd say it's a combination of a couple things. Demand is better. Now certainly, the fact that we had a competitor that was out for a while, that impacted the supply side of it. Relative to Nucor itself, when we look at what we've done with our latest acquisition of Longview and how that has really expanded and broadened our supply and our ability to feed the market, particularly when it comes to bridge and other applications and we see that -- we think that, for us, the plate market will continue fairly strong into the second quarter. Bear in mind that we also had a very successful trade case. It wasn't exactly everything we wanted. But for the most part, it was very favorable. And in the places we didn't get as favorable of a response as we would like, we will watch those countries carefully. If we see an influx of steel from them, illegally, unfairly traded steel, we will be quick to take action again. So a combination of demand getting better, a combination of the trade cases that we successfully prosecuted last year. And again, I really want to stress the additional fact that what we've been able to do with our plate supply and the markets that we've been able to attack that we couldn't attack in the past as a result of bringing Longview into the Nucor family are all reasons that we're pretty optimistic about our plate business going into the second quarter.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And we'll go next to Timna Tanners from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
You're now reporting tubular products and more information is always appreciated. But we've had 2 quarters now and I just wanted to probe and understand that segment a little bit better. So first question on that is, first quarter run rate for volumes, is that a good run rate going forward? Is there any seasonality there? And then second one is, pricing quarter-over quarter went up a lot. How do we think about what drives prices for that segment? And costs, do they line up with the prices? Or how do we think about those inputs?
John Ferriola:
Well, let me start with your first question about demand and how we see that going forward. We think demand has been pretty solid, but there's a lot of tie-ins in the construction industry, obviously, with this product. And as we've mentioned several times, we see the construction industry slowly improving. We think this year, we'll see an improvement in construction somewhere in the neighborhood of 5% to 6%. And frankly, that's the Dodge report number and it is also supported by the backlogs that we see in our downstream businesses which are, for us, frankly, a better leading indicator than the Dodge numbers. So we see continued improvement in construction. That'll bode well for our HSS businesses. I would also comment that working together with the conduit business, this really gives Nucor and, obviously, our structural products, our Vulcraft products, it really enhances our business ability to supply a wide range of commercial solutions in the construction industry for steel and steel products. So we think that's going to give those businesses a boost also. Frankly, in terms of how we see them contributing to Nucor, they're 2 great companies that have come together. There are all kinds of synergies that we're just learning about relative to how they interact with our steel mills, how they interact with each other. A simple example would be how you can increase the length of harness on various sizes now that you have more than one facility producing that. And of course, you've got all the logistical considerations as to how you best reach customers now that we have 5 different facilities producing that product. So based on all of that, we think that this was a great move. Our business development team did a great job in making it happen very quickly and the teams are working extremely well with our sheet mills. We're very excited about this new growth platform for our company.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. I can follow up with you later. I was just trying to understand in particular the pricing moves there since it's a new segment we have the first time ever 2 quarters to compare and we're seeing tubular up quarter-over quarter over, what, $200 -- almost $220 a ton, whereas the sheet price, for reasons that you partly explained on the lag effect, only up $60 a ton. Does tubular tend to move with hot-rolled? Does the cost tend to move with hot-rolled? Or is it just supply and demand negotiated? Or how do we think about that?
John Ferriola:
Well, it's both, okay. Obviously, it does move somewhat with hot band. But at the end of the day, I've said this in the past and I truly believe it to be the case. At the end of the day, pricing is a function of supply and demand. And when we see the demand going up and if supply becomes tight, prices go up. As I've mentioned right now, we see the construction business looking pretty good in the first quarter. There's been -- demand for our HSS product has been very strong. And with that strong demand, pricing has moved up. Certainly, it's tied somewhat to our hot band, but I would discourage you getting too hung up on that and recognizing that pricing -- it's economics 101. Pricing is a function of supply and demand.
Timna Tanners:
Can I slip one in for Jim then on dividend, please?
John Ferriola:
Jim is waiting with bated breath.
Timna Tanners:
In the past, you've said that when Nucor achieves over $1 of earnings per share, that would be when you'd start to think about factoring in a special dividend. Nucor's dividend has been rising every year, but by pretty small increments. So I'm just wondering if you had any thoughts about how you'd recommend to the board to proceed on the dividend or any thoughts that they've had on that.
James Frias:
That's a good question, Timna. And we think about the dividend not on a quarterly basis, but on an annual basis. So let's see how the rest of 2017 plays out and we'll think more about whether it's appropriate to increase the dividend or do something with other dividends or do other things to return cash to shareholders by the end of the year.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
I had a question on the DRI business. And more so, been reading in the press that the Louisiana operations have been up and then down and then up and then down and then kind of up again. So just wanted kind of a status update there. And then also, how should we be thinking about the profitability momentum overall given the fact that there's a very favorable spread between pig iron and iron ore right now?
John Ferriola:
Well, I'm going to start with your first question. There have been challenges at Louisiana. There's no doubt about that. It's -- that's not untypical of a start-up, especially one that's a complicated technology. We had similar issues when we first started our plants in Trinidad. But I will point out that we still have a great deal of confidence in the technology and point out that the challenges that we have had have not been with the technology or with the furnace itself. It's been auxiliary equipment. We've struggled with the process gas heater. We've done a redesign of the top half of that which failed couple years ago with a major failure. We're working on a redesign on the bottom half that just gave us some problems a couple weeks ago. Fortunately, not nearly as severe of a failure. And as we got that back online and started up, we had a problem with the belt. One of our belt lines -- conveyor belt lines failed. So yes, it's -- we've had our challenges. We're working our way through them. Again, I really want to stress that the issues are not with the technology, not with the furnace. I'll point out that, in terms of technology, our Trinidad plant, as we mentioned in the script, just set a record for production in the quarter. And both plants are producing DRI in terms of production efficiencies and yields and quality are working at world-class levels. And at the end of the day, it's about our long term strategy in raw materials. And we're confident, okay, that it's to our benefit to gain control over the largest single cost of our steelmaking operation, particularly -- I mean, I -- scrap -- iron units, in one form or another, account for about 60% of the cost of steel. And we feel, particularly as we continue to move up the value chain which is one of our stated goals, okay, we continue to move up the value chain, we're going to have a greater demand for virgin, low-residual iron units. And we see that becoming more challenged as we go into the future because less manufacturing and integration -- degradation of the existing prime scrap in the United States.
Philip Gibbs:
No, I'm with you, John. I was just -- I was more curious just in terms of if you've got it to a level where you think you could have some reliability and then thinking more about the economic opportunity because the spreads favor the product right now.
John Ferriola:
With every failure -- and we go back in and we engineer. We don't just patch it. We do it right. So I'm confident. And if you look at the time lines between the failures, they are extending. So we're confident that we'll work our way through these issues. In terms of the profitability, you're spot on. We expect it to be very good for the rest of the year as the spreads continue to grow. And personally, as I've said, from a strategic perspective, I believe that's a long term benefit to our company. We'll see that getting better and better as the years go by.
Philip Gibbs:
Perfect. And Jim, can you give us just a sense -- you mentioned in the release some of the contract lags on the flat-rolled side. Can you give us any sense in how should we be thinking about some of that in terms of magnitude as we look forward here in this quarter? And just trying to handicap that.
James Frias:
It's not a tremendous amount, but we're pricing – we're in March. But if you think about it, we started the quarter, meaning the first quarter, in January, with much lower pricing than we finished the quarter. So on average, we think the pricing will be higher. We don't think it's raising dynamically from where it was at the end of March. We think it's more of the average across the quarter will be better in the second quarter.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay, perfect. And then last one, just on the inventory positioning. I know sometimes you have work-in-process inventory benefits and headwinds that get captured in the conversion cost. I was wondering if there was a reversal of the headwinds that you had seen in Q4. And did you see a bit of a benefit from inventory lag in Q1?
James Frias:
Look, Phil, of course, when we're in an inflationary period with the pricing with raw materials which we certainly saw from the beginning of the first quarter to the end of the first quarter, we're benefited in our cost side as we start the quarter with lower-cost inventories. But by the end of the quarter, we were using much more extensive scrap and had our highest costs of the quarter. And our highest profits were in March of the 3 months in the quarter. So pricing moved up more than cost moved up. And so although we will start the second quarter with higher cost, we're going to start the second quarter with higher prices as well by a larger amount. So again, that's why we have comfort in the guidance that we expect improvement compared to the first quarter overall. And it's going to be a little different by product. But overall, that's our perspective.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Novid Rassouli from Cowen and Company.
Novid Rassouli:
Just you highlighted the renewed growth in demand on the energy side and I was wondering if you could provide details with respect to which products are seeing the greatest demand and maybe which specific subsectors within energy that are driving this demand.
John Ferriola:
Well, if you take a look at the U.S. rig count, it's up quite a bit. It's currently running at about 850 rigs. That's up from a low in the middle of last year of about 400. So the number of rigs have doubled. And as importantly, the amount of steel consumed per rig has doubled since about 2013. So when you have a situation where you're doubling the number of rigs and the amount of steel consumed has doubled, that's a good situation for us. And again, as I mentioned, we're -- we tend to be heavy on hot band, particularly at our Gallatin facility. And Gallatin has always been a big feeder to the OCTG. So we stand ready to supply this increased demand. Now having said that, we still have to keep an eye on imports, particularly when it comes to OCTG. We see a lot of pressure from Korea in that product and we're taking a look at that. There's been some increase of duties, but we're continuing to study that situation. So to answer your question directly, rig counts are up, just about double. Steel consumed per rig, up just about double. That bodes well for steel consumption in that market.
James Frias:
And John, you mentioned hot band, but of course, also, it benefits our bar business as well with the seamless business.
John Ferriola:
Absolutely. Good point. Thanks, John.
Novid Rassouli:
And one quick follow-up, the trajectory that we've seen for rigs has been pretty aggressive. Based on, I guess, your order book and quotes and what you're seeing, is there any indication that, that could be slowing? Or is the momentum still fairly strong on that front? That's it for me.
John Ferriola:
Currently, we see the momentum still strong. I know OPEC is meeting, I think it's today or met yesterday. From what I understand, a decision was made to continue curtailing production and that bodes well for that business. So based on everything we're seeing and everything that we're hearing, we expect the momentum to continue.
Operator:
And we'll go last to Alessandro Abate from Berenberg.
Alessandro Abate:
It's Alessandro Abate from Berenberg. I just have 2 questions, John. I mean, you've been quite explicit about development of the steel industry in the U.S. because connecting the dots, seems to be like a very positive earnings momentum well beyond Q2. You say that inventory of sheet is 1.8 months in hand, rigs count that is absolutely going straight upward. There is a recovery, more than anything else, of segment which were lagging heavily behind demand of sheets in 2016 energy and up early demand for mining equipment. So with China, South Korea out of the equation of import, even though there is a massive correction of the Chinese steel prices at the moment, but the average price of imported steel should be definitely higher because of the lack of South Korea and China's competition. It really seems that momentum's earnings is going to go well beyond Q2. And also related to the demand -- the question of my one of my peers, is that related to scrap -- possible scrap decline? Clearly, there is the possibility. But for what you're basically depicting at the moment with all this set of data, it really seems that, if anything, scrap is going to come down with strong supply and demand -- more favorable to demand this time, it seems that, if anything, as more corrections to price in the U.S., it might actually be definitely lower than any potential downside to raw material cost. Am I correct in this assumption without going to the smaller [indiscernible]?
John Ferriola:
Well, there's a lot of assumptions there, okay.
Alessandro Abate:
Yes. Just maybe [indiscernible] been saying, yes.
John Ferriola:
Yes. In general, I would have to agree with what you were saying. I will say, though, one point that I need to correct. You talked about basically the steel being cut off from China and Korea and some other -- Turkey, some other problem areas. I need to point out that, that is a battle that we're still fighting. If you look at the import percentage today, we're probably still having 20% to 25% of the market share supplied by imported products, many of which are dumped products. So we continue that battle. But in general, we take a look at things and we say, "Okay, what's -- where does the steel demand come from?" And at the end of the day, when you look at the United States, construction accounts for the vast majority of steel consumed in the United States followed by automotive, okay, followed by energy. So let's take a look at them. We see construction has been increasing. At the end of the day, automotive, although it's high, we might see it coming down a little bit. It has been strong. But although the automotive market might decrease a little bit, I'll point out that Nucor continues to increase our market share of the automotive market. We're at 1.4 million tons last year. We're at 1.5 million tons this year. I am fully expecting that we will be at 2 million tons by the end of 2018. So for us, automotive continues to go strong. And as we just discussed, energy is strong. So when you look at the 3 major consumers of steel, it's all looking pretty positive. And so how long does that last? You want -- certainly, we think through the second quarter. That's why we're giving the guidance that we're giving. There's other things that we might be seeing coming down the road. We just -- we talked about the investigation that was launched today. That might have an impact, a positive impact for the rest of the year. Certainly, President Trump has talked about infrastructure. And certainly, we support that. The infrastructure in this country is crumbling. It's an embarrassment. And when you look at not only the impact that, that has on the economy and on manufacturing, let's remember why we built the infrastructure in this country in the first place after World War II. We recognized from a position of national security we needed to have a strong infrastructure system which today is falling apart. So all of the things that you've mentioned are certainly looking good for the rest of the year. I've added a couple more things that we see as positives. I want to stress again what we've been doing and we talk about our pent-up earnings power. We've invested $7 billion over the -- during this present downturn. We've got -- we're just ready, willing, eager for this demand to come back and for the upswing to occur as we see it starting to release this pent-up earnings power that we've been building for several years and investing $7 billion in. So we do feel good about the future. We typically only talk about one quarter at a time and that's why we gave our guidance only for the second quarter.
Alessandro Abate:
If I may, just my second question related to Mexico, I mean, the venture that you are with JFE for the construction of the 400,000 tons of galvanizing steel. Is there any development there? I mean, if we take a look at the currency, I mean which is the lead indicator of a potential deterioration of trade relationship between the U.S. and Mexico, the appreciation of Mexican peso which reflects a little bit softening stance of President Trump, seems to be a little bit more favorable to your decision to go ahead with the investment. Correct?
John Ferriola:
No, we fully plan to go ahead with the investment. We're planning a groundbreaking somewhat later this month or early next month, okay. So we're comfortable with what we're doing there, being able to supply the automotive market which is certainly growing in Mexico and our new plant is going right in the middle of the growth. So we feel very good about the project. We're very pleased with our partners. We've been working with a great company, JFE of Japan, over the last year that we've been working with them and we find them to be very similar to Nucor in their aggressiveness in their time lines. And we continue to grow our ability to produce the automotive-grade steels. So we're excited about it. We certainly are encouraged by what's happening in Mexico and we plan to go ahead.
Alessandro Abate:
So you see the demand in Mexico at the moment and also for the next, let's say, 6 to 9 months extremely strong?
John Ferriola:
We do, but it's hard to know what's going on from quarter to quarter. But bear in mind that when we make these investments, we don't do them relative to a quarter at a time. We make investments, whether it be DRI or the JFE venture or our plate mill investments that we've made, we make them for the long term. So we don't worry about what's going to happen next quarter, third quarter, fourth quarter. We just make sure that we make investments that are going to return to our shareholders the value that we should be returning to them for their valuable -- for their investment of their valuable capital. And we're confident that that's what we're doing.
Operator:
And we'll take our last question from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
I just had a quick one on the energy markets. And John, can you remind us where and kind of how you participate in that market? I would think on the hot-rolled side, it's in substrate. But maybe give us some view on how you may participate on the bar side as well or any other markets. I appreciate it.
John Ferriola:
Well, we do supply high-quality billets out of our Memphis mill that go into the seamless OCTG. And that's a good business for us and that's been a growing business for us. So you've nailed it. The substrate into OCTG, our Memphis facility with SBQ going into OCTG also. Do you want to make a comment about cold finish?
James Frias:
Yes. We also supply cold finish to a lot of energy applications as well.
John Ferriola:
Good point. Yes, energy in general, yes.
James Frias:
Mining as well.
John Ferriola:
And frankly, if you want to expand this into energy in very general terms, we can peel back and talk about, okay, we've talked about substrate and we've talked about billets. We've talked about cold finish into it. And let's not forget plate while we're at it, okay. So plate also goes into the energy market. So we're very involved in the energy markets. And that speaks to the diversity of our company and one of the great strengths of our company.
Operator:
And that concludes our question-and-answer session for today. I'd like to turn it back over to you, Mr. Ferriola, for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Well, let me just close by saying thank you to all of my Nucor family, our customers, our shareholders and of course, our teammates. Our success is due to your support, commitment and hard work. Let's continue to work together and most importantly, let's work together safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you so much for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter and Year-end of 2016 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently unavailable (sic) [ available ]. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
The leadership team in Charlotte would like to thank all of our teammates throughout Nucor for working together to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor. You are the reason our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you. We also want to extend a very warm welcome to the newest members of the Nucor family, our more than 900 Nucor Tubular Products teammates, who joined us with the recent acquisitions of Independence Tube, Southland Tube and Republic Conduit. Nucor is very proud and excited to have you aboard. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias, will now review Nucor's fourth quarter performance and financial position. Following those comments, I will update you on the execution of our strategy for long-term profitable growth. Jim?
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Nucor reported fourth quarter of 2016 earnings of $0.50 per diluted share and full year earnings of $2.48 per diluted share. These numbers exclude any last in, first out or LIFO expense or income. Included in fourth quarter of 2016 earnings were the effects of a change in estimate related to the cost of certain inventories that resulted in a benefit of $0.16 per diluted share. Additionally, compensation costs in the fourth quarter were $0.09 per share, higher than anticipated as a result of
On our October 2016 earnings conference call, we committed to completing a review of our steel mill capacity estimates that have been in place for a number of years. Those estimates preceded the sizable investments we have made in recent years to support a broader shift in our mix to include a greater proportion of value-added steel mill products. Examples of these investments include:
the Berkeley sheet mill's wide-and-light project; our Arkansas sheet mill's vacuum tank degasser; Nucor-Yamato's wider, lighter sheet pilings and higher-strength low-alloy beams; and our Hertford County plate mill's vacuum tank degassing, heat treat and normalizing capabilities. Although value-added products may run slower on our mills, we expect the richer product mix to support higher overall profitability through the cycle. Reflecting the capacity impact of moving up the value chain, we estimate Nucor's total steelmaking annual capacity to be approximately 26.7 million tons, a decline of about 7% from our prior estimate of just under 29 million tons. For 2016, our steel mills produced a total of 21.2 million tons.
During the fourth quarter, while analyzing the impact of the shift to value-added products on our steel mill capacity, we also revisited the impact that the new grades of steel have on our inventory costing methods. We determined that the use of the first in, first out or FIFO inventory costing method was preferable for all of Nucor's businesses. In addition, consistent with the change in our estimates of normal capacity, we also changed our estimates on the amount of production costs to be absorbed in our inventory costing models, resulting in a $0.16 per diluted share benefit. Nucor's decision at year-end 2016 to use FIFO inventory costing for all of our business units resulted from these factors. Our exclusive use of the FIFO method more closely resembles the physical flow of our inventory and better matches revenue with expenses. It provides investors and analysts with improved comparability to our peers. FIFO also aligns with how Nucor assesses the performance of our businesses. That point is highlighted by the fact that our business segment results have always been presented on a FIFO basis. A quick comment about our fourth quarter and full year 2016 tax rate as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from noncontrolling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 33.3% for both the fourth quarter and the total year. Overall steel market conditions remained challenging in 2016. Nevertheless, several of our businesses achieved particularly noteworthy results. Nucor sheet mills delivered strong earnings growth, especially over the final 3 quarters of the year. Our flat-rolled teams continued to successfully move up the value chain. In an extremely depressed market demand environment, Nucor's engineered bar mill group achieved solid profitability. We continue to take advantage of recent investments such as the Memphis mill's new heat treat facility and Darlington, South Carolina mill's wire rod rolling capability. Despite facing the headwind from a generally flat nonresidential construction market, our Harris Rebar fabrication business posted strong year-over-year earnings growth. The David J. Joseph Company scrap processing business also delivered strong profit improvement. Our scrap recycling team has put in place significant and sustainable improvements in their cost structure, reducing both fixed and variable costs. Another key driver has been DJJ's successful execution of its mill alignment strategy. This initiative improves utilization and profitability of DJJ's processing operations while also allowing Nucor steel mills to better optimize the cost of their scrap requirements. Nucor's financial position remains strong. With total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion, our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 35% at the end of 2016. Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $2.2 billion. That was after funding our fourth quarter acquisition of Independence Tube for a cash purchase price of $430 million. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. This facility does not mature until April 2021. 2016 capital expenditures were $680 [ph] million, which included $135 million for the purchase of natural gas leasehold interest from Encana in the third quarter. 2016 depreciation and amortization totaled $687 million. For 2017, we estimate capital spending of approximately $575 million and depreciation and amortization of about $715 million. Earnings in the first quarter of 2017 are expected to increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. We believe full year 2017 profitability could significantly exceed the level achieved for 2016. We expect our sheet mills to perform more consistently due to the full year benefit of recent trade actions. Our plate mills are also expected to deliver improved profitability as the pending plate trade cases are concluded in coming months. Our fabricated construction products' order books indicate that the nonresidential construction market is regaining momentum in 2017. We expect strong year-over-year growth in our steel products businesses this year. Beginning in the second quarter, we will realize the full benefit of our tubular products investments. We also expect our raw materials business to be solidly profitable due to stronger demand for iron units. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages, highly adaptable business model and proven strategies will allow our team to continue to deliver profitable long-term growth and attractive returns to Nucor's shareholders. Thank you for your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor's disciplined strategy for profitable growth is working. Our successful execution is evident in our strong cash flow generation and our industry-leading returns on capital through the challenging steel markets of recent years.
Most importantly, our strategic execution positions Nucor to deliver stronger profitability throughout the economic cycle.
Consistent with our company's long history of growing stronger during industry downturns, Nucor has sizable pent-up earnings power that we are eager to realize for our shareholders. We are executing our long-term growth strategy by leveraging Nucor's 5 drivers to profitable growth. The 5 drivers are:
one, strengthen our position as a low-cost producer; two, achieve market leadership positions in every product line in our portfolio; three, move up the value chain by expanding our capabilities to produce higher-quality, higher-margin products; four, expand and leverage our downstream channels to market to increase our steel mills' baseload volume for sustainable results; and five, achieve commercial excellence to complement our traditional operational strength.
I will now update you on highlights of our team's recent progress implementing our strategy for profitable growth. Over the past 3 months, we have established a new strategic platform for profitable growth, Nucor Tubular Products. In October, we completed the acquisition of Independence Tube Corporation. In January, we completed the acquisitions of Southland Tube and Republic Conduit. Combined 2016 tubular shipments for these 3 businesses were approximately 1 million tons. Our aggregate purchase price for the 3 acquisitions of $900 million is approximately 7x estimated average EBITDA over the 2014 to 2016 period. Independence Tube and Southland Tube produce hollow structural section or HSS steel tubing. 2016 shipments totaled about 840,000 tons from 5 facilities located in Alabama and Illinois. HSS steel tubing is predominantly used in nonresidential construction. With the acquisition of Independence Tube and Southland Tube, Nucor has immediately established a market leadership position in the HSS steel tube market. Republic Conduit produces steel electrical conduit. 2016 shipments totaled approximately 150,000 tons from 2 facilities in Kentucky and Georgia. Republic's products are primarily used to protect and route electrical wiring in nonresidential construction. With this acquisition, Nucor has become a market leader in steel conduit. Nucor's expansion into the HSS and electrical conduit segments of the pipe and tube market hits on all 5 drivers in our long-term strategy for profitable growth. It is also a natural fit with Nucor's business model and product portfolio. Like Nucor's other operations, these pipe and tube businesses are built around extremely efficient manufacturing, a highly variable cost structure and continuous improvement. All 3 acquired companies share Nucor's strong emphasis on the value of our team members. Both the HSS and electrical conduit products offer significant value-added opportunities. These factors include quality, reliability and short lead times inherent in construction projects. For these reasons, import penetration in these market segments has been limited compared to the overall pipe and tube business. Of great strategic importance, our tubular products provide a value-added channel to market for Nucor's hot-rolled sheet steel. Hot-rolled sheet is our largest flat-rolled product, representing about 60% of shipments by our sheet mills in 2016 or just under 6 million tons. Prior to these acquisitions, our channel-to-market opportunities for Nucor's hot band production were limited compared to our broader steel portfolio. All of the Nucor Tubular Product facilities are located in close proximity to one or several Nucor sheet mills. In 2016, our sheet mills supplied less than half of the substrate consumed by our recently acquired tubular operations. There is clearly a very meaningful opportunity ahead for our sheet mills to earn additional business from our pipe and tube mills. Nucor is already North America's most comprehensive supplier of steel solutions to the construction and infrastructure markets. We hold leadership positions in beams, bars and plate steels, steel H-piling and pipe piling manufacturing and distribution as well as joist, decking, metal buildings and rebar fabrication. The addition of HSS and electrical conduit tubing to our product portfolio will further differentiate Nucor from our competitors in our ability to provide solutions to our customers. Nucor is the strongest name in construction steel and steel products. Our Nucor-Yamato structural steel mill team made excellent progress in the fourth quarter and full year of 2016 with the expansion of their value-added product offerings. Shipments of the recently introduced wider-sheet piling sections in 2016 exceeded 45,000 tons. After beginning production of the wider-sheet piling product in late 2014, we are well on the way to reaching our annual volume goal of 100,000 tons. 3 of the 4 new sections have been commercialized, with the remaining section to be commissioned during the current quarter. Already enjoying strong marketplace success, these value-added niche products are an essential component in numerous infrastructure applications. In the third quarter of 2016, Nucor-Yamato began trial production of its new high-strength, low-alloy beams that utilize the recently installed Quench and Self-Tempering or QST technology. I am very pleased to report that the Nucor-Yamato team shipped its first load of these high-strength beams to a customer earlier this month. We expect to complete trials across the entire range of our high-strength beam product line during the first half of 2017. This investment positions Nucor as the sole North American producer of high-strength, low-alloy beams. Nucor-Yamato's target over the next several years is to grow our high-strength beam volume to 50,000 tons annually. That would represent a market share of about 50%. Nucor's automotive market shipments increased to 1.4 million tons in 2016. Our automotive shipments have grown by 50% over the past 3 years, with strong gains in both our sheet and our engineered bar businesses. Critical to our ongoing success is Nucor's work with customers developing advanced high-strength steels. We expect to continue our robust growth in the automotive market. As always, our focus is on profitable growth. Consistent with the plan announced in mid-2016, our Vulcraft/Verco steel joist and decking business has expanded its geographical reach into Canada. Vulcraft Canada, located in Ontario, began deck production in December. We expect production of joists to begin around the end of the current quarter. For many years, the highly successful customer-supplier partnership between Vulcraft and our steelmaking operations has proven the value of Nucor's vertical integration and channel-to-market strategy. These are just some of the exciting initiatives being implemented throughout Nucor to drive profitable growth. They highlight the long-term focus of Nucor's culture on continual improvement and technological innovation. Nucor thrives in a marketplace where winners are determined by real economic advantage, not advantages derived by artificial or unlawful methods. We embrace free and fair competition, which is an essential requirement for all trade, both domestic and international. For this reason, Nucor will continue to be proactive and aggressive in pursuing effective and timely enforcement of our nation's trade laws. We owe nothing less than that to our customers, our employees and our shareholders. It is absolutely necessary, given the greatest challenge facing the steel industry, which is global steel production overcapacity resulting from the trade-distorting practices of some governments. With recent actions taken by the U.S. government to both strengthen and better enforce our nation's trade laws, significant progress is being made. We are definitely headed in the right direction, but there's a tremendous amount of work still to be done. The Nucor team will continue to diligently work to ensure more comprehensive and long-term solutions for the problems facing the steel industry and America's manufacturing base. For a company such as Nucor, with its unique position of strength and proven ability to execute its strategy for profitable growth, this is a time of great opportunity. Our team is both ready and eager to demonstrate the pent-up earnings power that we have built into our company during the industry downturn. I am absolutely confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first caller. We'll go to David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano:
I actually have 2 questions. One is a short-term outlook-related question, which I know you love answering so much, but I have to ask it anyway. And then the second one is related to the accounting change. So first, on the short-term outlook, you provided a lot of your qualitative commentary regarding the expected improvements in the first quarter, but I'm wondering if you could quantify the magnitude of the expectations for the near term. Specifically, what type of quarter-over-quarter improvement should we be assuming for volumes and metal margins? And also, what's a reasonable assumption for scrap, moving forward, embedded in that metal margin assumption? That's my first question.
John Ferriola:
Let me start with that. Always good to hear from you. And you're right, we do love getting those short-term questions. Even though we can't answer them, okay, we do like hearing them. But I can answer some parts of it. Let me start with the scrap. Our outlook for scrap, we think that scrap has went up -- it's over $100 over the last couple of months, and frankly, we think it overshot a little bit, particularly on the obsolete grades. So we see that cutting back a little bit, dropping back maybe $20 a ton over the next 2 months or so. On obsolete, that's our short-term view. On prime, we think it's a little bit stronger. It perhaps overshot a little bit less, probably a smaller drop back over the next couple of months, maybe in the neighborhood of $10 to $15. When we look at pig iron, we've seen that gone up quite a bit over the last couple of months. Current pricing is in the neighborhood of $325 a ton, but we think that's pretty solid. We don't see that coming back much at all. So on scrap, we can give you a pretty definitive outlook on the short term. In terms of buying, we can answer the question in general terms with what we see going on in the marketplace, and we -- I'm sure we're going to delve into this more deeply as the call goes on. But you see the reports that we see. We see the Drudge Report going up 6% on construction -- or excuse me, the Dodge Report over -- going up over the next quarter, can be up 6%. And we see that supported with our own downstream businesses when we look at the order entry rate. As I've mentioned in the past, we see that as an indicator of what the market is doing. And we see our order entry rates and our quote rates up significantly over the last 2 months, so we think the Dodge Report is probably accurate on that. On the automotive front, you all see the Ward report. That's going to be pretty consistent. They're calling for the year maybe at 17.2 million, 17.3 million as compared to the 17.5 million number last year. So that will be down a little bit. But I would ask you to remember that even if the overall build is down, our percentage of that market share continues to increase. So as we see our position in automotive over 2017, we see it improving. And then finally, energy. Energy, we see as picking up during the year also. We think it's going to be a substantial pickup during 2017.
David Gagliano:
All right. Great. That's very helpful. Just on the switch from LIFO to FIFO, which, by the way, I think is going to make our lives easier moving forward. My understanding, sometimes, when companies make that change, they do incur a bit of a cash tax -- it can be actually pretty large cash charge. And just so there's no expectations here, should we be thinking about a potential onetime charge coming from this change?
James Frias:
Not a charge. I think what we're really saying is there's a cash -- a hit on the statement of cash flows because of taxes. In Nucor's case, that's not going to be the case. We expect a negligible impact, if any at all, from changing from LIFO to FIFO.
John Ferriola:
Does that answer the question, Dave?
David Gagliano:
Yes. That's helpful.
Operator:
And we next move to Curt Woodworth with Crédit Suisse.
Curtis Woodworth:
Two questions, a policy question and a question on your sheet metal business. So I'm not sure, John, what level of contact you've had with the new administration, but from a policy basis, I wanted to see what Nucor thought of potential tools or changes that the Trump administration could potentially look to utilize to support the domestic steel industry and its workforce. That's the first question.
John Ferriola:
Well, we've had, personally, a small amount of contact with the new administration, but obviously, our trade associations have been very active working with them. As a general statement, we feel very pleased, particularly with the appointment of the cabinet members who will be focused on trade. We believe them to be very knowledgeable about the steel industry and very knowledgeable about trade laws and policy. So we feel very -- we feel good about what we see as the changes coming up in the administration relative to trade and particularly to steel as it pertains to trade. And again, all we're looking for -- as we've said many times in the past, all that we're looking for is a level playing field. We are not looking for any advantage. We're looking for a level playing field. We feel good about the administration's position on China with currency manipulation, and we feel very good about their position on China as a market economy status -- not being granted market economy status. We also are very encouraged by the discussion about a strong infrastructure build -- ah, build and bill. Both President Trump and Senator Brown are both speaking about something significant, in the neighborhood of about $1 trillion over the next 10 years. That has a significant impact on steel consumption. We believe that for every $1 trillion spent, you're looking at about 50 million tons of steel -- excuse me, 50 million over the 10-year period, okay? The $1 trillion would be spent over the 10-year period. So we'd be looking at about 50 million tons over the 10-year period, so that could average out to about 5 million tons a year. So now when you look at that and we say our total consumption in the United States is about 100 million tons, 5 million tons is not insignificant. So the trade policies, their view on infrastructure, all lead to very positive outlooks for us with the administration.
Curtis Woodworth:
Okay. And then a quick question on your sheet mill performance. I'm calculating, and this may be a spiff [ph] off old capacity data, that your sheet mills ran around 71%, 72% capacity factor in the fourth quarter. I'm wondering, given your ability to leverage, potentially, another 0.5 million tons of hot band substrate into your pipe and tube acquisitions as well as market growth, can you comment on where you see utilization rates trending in your sheet mills, I guess, end of the second quarter?
John Ferriola:
With the comments that I made relative to the automotive market and to your point about the acquisitions that we've made into pipe and tube and as you heard in the script, we picked up about 1 million additional tons of potential business. Of course, our sheet mills have to earn that business, but we fully expect them to do that. We feel pretty good about our utilization rates in 2017. We did well in 2016. And given what we see happening, as I've mentioned in pipe and tube and automotive and particularly, in energy, we're expecting and we've -- Preston Pipe projections say that the consumption will go up somewhere from about 5 million tons in 2016 up to 7.2 million -- 7.5 million tons in 2017. That's a significant improvement. And a lot of that is -- as you know, a lot of the product that goes into that is hot band. And as you know, we are very strong in hot band. It represents about 60% of our sheet business. So given all of those factors, we don't give out a specific utilization rate, but I would say that we are very excited about the utilization that we'll have in our sheet mills in 2017.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew Korn:
Let me ask again -- following up a little bit on the policy question. I'm sure you've been asked this, but how do the risks of any potential changes to NAFTA regional trade agreements, does that affect your view on the attractiveness of the Mexican JV with JFE at all? And if not or even if so, when is construction scheduled to begin for that plant?
John Ferriola:
Well, right now, we're scheduled to start construction sometime around May or June. We have picked up -- we've acquired -- we've purchased some of the land that we will need in Mexico. We have options on the rest. And to your basic question, we are watching the situation in Washington very carefully. We're working with our partners, JFE. They have been -- as you know, it's a great steel company. I have to tell you they've been a great partner to work with. And we're watching what happens and recognizing the fact that we do have some options. The equipment is on order. We fully expect to take the equipment and locate it. Right now, we're still planning it's going to be in Mexico. But if something changes and we have some definitive direction that says that's not the place to put it, we do have options, and we will work -- we'll move forward with one of those options.
Matthew Korn:
Got it. That helps. I think we're all glued to CNN a little bit more than we have been in previous years to see the developments there.
John Ferriola:
Just if I may make one more comment on the project itself. Regardless of where it ends up -- and as I said, we still expect it to be in Mexico, but we'll watch that. But regardless of where it ends up, the project itself, we are very, very optimistic about. The opportunity to work with a great company like JFE, it's going to improve our ability to make higher-value-added products. We've been working very hard on that. Being recognized as a quality producer by JFE is a big positive for us. Working with JFE and their contacts and the new domestics both in Mexico and the United States, we see that commercially as a plus. So the project is a big plus. We've got some things that we got to work through now that there's been some changes in the administration. And as you know, there's a lot of things going on in Washington. The situation is in flux, and we'll monitor it carefully and make a decision on where to move forward with a very good project.
Matthew Korn:
All right. Very good. Let me, if I could, some of the commentary you've made on the M&A you've just completed in the tubular division. Can you talk at all about your expectations for, let's say, year-over-year improvement, in particular for the HSS tubing market or the conduit market for 2017. Any ideas around how margins, volume should look over the next year? And then I'm also curious. You alluded to this maybe a little bit. But are you gaining -- are you able to gain a better foothold with any of your particular buyers via Southland, Republic that could improve your ability to place other downstream products that you're not currently shipping in?
John Ferriola:
Let me tackle that one first, and then we'll go back to your earlier question. But what it does do is it gives us a greater breadth of product offering to customers who buy across multiple products. A great example would be service centers. As you know, we sell about 30% to 35% of our product through service centers, and they buy large amounts of pipe and tube, particularly HSS. So this gives us a larger share of our customers' wallet, and it gives us a close relationship with many customers. It does get us into -- more heavily into construction, which we see as a good thing. We believe, as I mentioned earlier, construction will be up 6%. HSS obviously goes -- and conduit, both, are big products going into construction. We see that -- those products aimed right at the heart of the construction market. And that's, frankly, one of the reasons that -- along with many others, but it is one of the reasons why we moved forward in this acquisition. Another very important reason, as I've pointed out in the script, is that the cultural compatibility is excellent. They're a low-cost producer. They're focused on continuous improvement. All are important. But the most important issue and the thing that we really liked about them moving forward with this acquisition was the way that they treat their teammates and the way we treat our teammates. So there's a lot of good reasons for moving forward with it. We see it being -- growing stronger as we see construction growing stronger over the next 12 months.
Operator:
Next question comes from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge Beristain:
Two questions. On scrap pricing, we've seen some weakness out of Turkey in the last week, and I think investors are fearful that there may be a following steel correction in the U.S. Could you just talk about your thoughts as to the steel-to-scrap spread, as to how that could evolve in 2017 in the U.S. market?
John Ferriola:
At the end of the day, when you look at both steel pricing and you look at scrap pricing, Economics 101 comes into play. Demand will drive pricing. At the end of the day, demand will always drive pricing, both domestically and internationally. So as we go into 2017 and we see the demand improving for the reasons and in the areas that I've mentioned a few times now, we expect demand for scrap to certainly be steady, if not improving over the course of the year. So we don't see this significant drop in scrap. As I said earlier, we think it got a little bit ahead of itself, and we'll see a little bit of a drop back as a result of that on obsolete. But I will tell you that prime scrap remains tight. Again, it might have gotten a little bit ahead of itself, maybe drop back a little bit, $10 to $15. But we don't see a precipitous drop in either obsolete and particularly not in prime scrap. We think it will follow demand. The demand for scrap follows the demand for steel. When we look at the improvements, as I've mentioned in energy, in construction and the steady, fast moving forward in automotive, we think demand for steel is going to be improving in 2017. The demand for scrap will follow, and pricing will be stable.
Jorge Beristain:
And if I could have a follow-up. On plates, I think I asked this question last quarter, there had been a big discount of plate to HRC. Plate has really jumped up in terms of pricing and is now back at its normal premium to HRC. Could you just talk about what you're seeing on the demand side of plate? And especially post Trump's win, we've just been hearing anecdotally that a lot of things are starting to move in the heavy -- heavy equipment industry and pipelines. If you could just comment, are you actually seeing a real demand pull in plate?
John Ferriola:
We're seeing a demand improvement in plate. It's a small improvement. We expect it to actually pick up speed as the year goes on, and we're looking for more improvement in the demand side of plate as we get into the second quarter. That said, what I think you see in the strengthening of the product is the fact that we have had significant victories in our trade laws. Now having said that, we still have trade -- ongoing trade legislation that we're pursuing and cases that we're pursuing. But what we've seen to date in the way of success on plate has improved our market significantly in the first part of the year. Now we could get into the specifics of the trade cases, but we've gone against 12 -- we've issued cases against 12 individual countries. And we've been successful on cases that have been against Brazil, South Africa and Turkey, all with sizable tariffs that have been applied, the neighborhood of 75%, 85%, 42% in the case of Turkey. And we're going -- as I said, we're continuing to go after the other countries and particularly -- frankly, particularly going after China, which has been very heavily dumping into our market. We expect these cases to conclude in the next couple of months. And as always happens with these cases, as the conclusion starts to be on the near horizon, these countries begin to back away from the market, recognizing -- particularly, if they recognize that they have been guilty and they know what the outcome is going to be, they start to pull out of the market. And that's what we've seen. So yes, we've seen a tiny bit of demand improvement in plate. We expect to see more improvement as we get into the second half of the year. But the improvement in the market and the pricing is a result of the supply change as we've been able to get the dumped and subsidized products out of our marketplace and bring fair pricing back to that market.
Operator:
Next question comes from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan Kurtz:
So first question is on line pipe. There's obviously been a lot of news on that recently. The new administration is far more accommodative, it would seem, on improving pipeline projects, and it sounds like they want to do it with Buy American clauses in place for some of these. So it seems like it might be an interesting market for a U.S. producer. And I know you guys -- I believe you guys, in the past, have never really done much in as far as hot-rolled sheet that could go into X70 and X80-type product. Is that something that you've looked at maybe getting involved in? And if so, what sort of capital equipment would be required to get into that market?
John Ferriola:
Well, frankly, we can produce X70 today at 2 of our mills. We can produce X70 up to about 5/8 of an inch. We can do that at our Tuscaloosa plate mill, and we can also do it at our Decatur sheet mill. We've sold that into the market, so we don't need any additional capital equipment. It's all been installed, tested, up and running, and we're selling that product today. So we're comfortable supplying X70 up to, as I said, 5/8. We don't know what kind of demand we'll be looking at for these pipelines. Obviously, the Dakota pipeline is being installed, so there's no additional demand there. And we're hearing various accounts on whether it's -- whether or not there's going to be additional steel needed for the Keystone pipeline, so we'll just have to wait and see. But if they need it, we're here to supply it. And the other point that I would make on the Keystone actually, a lot of the material that was made for the Keystone that is on the ground was not produced domestically. Now when they say about having to use made, melted and rolled in the United States in the Keystone, we don't know if that would then disqualify the pipe that's already on the ground that was not melted and rolled in the United States. If I get a vote on that, you know how I'm going to vote.
Evan Kurtz:
Do you know if the Keystone gauge is higher than a 5/8 size?
John Ferriola:
I don't know the specifics of it, but I believe it's -- believe most of it was spec-ed out to be 0.5-inch. So it would be within the range that we can make.
Evan Kurtz:
Great. And then just one follow-up question on trade cases. So rebar is coming up pretty soon, and I know it's a new case. The last case, there are initially some minor duties on Mexico and not much on Turkey, which is a little bit disappointing. And there are some remands and some retrying of that same dataset over and over again, and it never really got anywhere. How do you think this new case is going to be different than the last case?
John Ferriola:
Well, we -- as you mentioned, we are going back after it again. We were very disappointed. We don't think it was a proper outcome to that case. We're feeling pretty good about presenting this case to the new administration, and the people who will be handling it now, we think, are better educated and know more about what's going on both in the steel world and in trade. So we're expecting a more positive outcome. We certainly hope to get that. That said, if we don't, I'm here to tell you we're going to keep going back and keep going back and keep going back until we get a just outcome. It's being dumped, there's no doubt about it, and it's hurting the American worker. And we're going to keep -- we don't give up. We're going to be going back until we get the proper outcome and ensure a level playing field for our teammates to compete upon.
Operator:
Next question comes from Alex Hacking with Citi.
Alexander Hacking:
Coming back to the acquisitions of the tubular operations. You've mentioned that it would have around 1 million tons of capacity, and you mentioned some of the trailing EBITDA metrics. I guess my first question is, what utilization rate were those operations working at on average last year? We're trying to figure out how much upside there is there to future demand improvement. And then secondly, as you said, that's going to take some of your hot-rolled substrate. You mentioned that you think sheet demand is going to be improving this year. Are you looking at opportunities -- or where would there be opportunities to increase your finished steel production to closer match your mill capacities in sheet?
John Ferriola:
Well, let's start with the utilization. Frankly, they don't work on a utilization rate. They work on -- we look at it, the number of days that they work and shifts that they work per day. So in all 3 cases, they are working 6 days a week, and they're working 2 shifts a day. And that's -- so if you wanted to do it in terms of utilization, that might be a utilization rate of 75%, somewhere in that neighborhood, 70% to 75%. So there's always room for expansion in that. We can run around the clock. One of the things that I would say is these companies that we bought into the Nucor family, they're very good commercially, they're good operationally, but we do believe that there's some synergies that we can bring both operationally and from a commercial perspective. So we would -- our expectation is that we would improve that -- their utilization and their profitability. Could you repeat -- you had a second question. Would you repeat that?
Alexander Hacking:
Yes. I'm curious. So that -- those tubular operations, if they earn it, are going to take up more of your hot-rolled steel and improve your utilization rate. You mentioned that you expect sheet steel demand to be good this year. I guess, what opportunities do you have or are you considering to increase sheet steel production to closer match where you have excess mill capacity?
John Ferriola:
Well, we're always looking at opportunities. I'm not going to get into specific projects that we have on the books that haven't been announced yet, but I will remind you that we did announce a cold mill project at our Hickman facility. This is a very specialized cold mill to produce advanced, high-strength -- ultra-high-strength steel. It's very light gauge, ultra high strength, what we refer to as third-gen steel that will go into the automotive and other applications, motor laminations being another large application for that. So that's one of the projects that we have that has been announced. I can tell you that we are considering several others. They haven't been announced yet so I can't share them with you at this time. But just in general, I would say, when you look at our balance sheet, and we have a strong balance sheet, we have money to invest. We are not afraid to spend it. We talked a little bit earlier today about the JFE project. That will consume 200,000 tons of our product coming out of Berkeley. So we've got other projects going on. We've got the JFE. We've got the cold mill. And we continue to look at how we can improve the utilization of our existing downstream businesses, our existing galv lines and cold mills. And as I mentioned earlier, remember that Nucor is long on HRC, on hot-rolled coil. And at the end of the day, the pipe and tube is going to help balance that a little bit. Also, with the improvement that we see coming this year in energy, our Gallatin acquisition of a few years ago, we're very heavily into the energy market. And they took a huge hit when energy collapsed. And we expect energy to come back and the utilization at our mill in Gallatin to come back with it.
Operator:
We next move to Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld:
A couple of questions on the outlook for the steel mills division. We were somewhat surprised on ASPs that came in slightly weaker than we were at least modeling for the period. Can you talk a little about your current product mix, what you saw on the fourth quarter? I'm just wondering if there is potentially a shift from -- away from the higher-value cold rolled in galv towards hot-rolled coil? Or, alternatively, shift away from quarterly contracts towards spot, which might have weighed on the realized prices in light of that period of market volatility?
John Ferriola:
We didn't see much of a shift in the products on our sheet side. But of course, the contract pricing, you always have a lagging effect, and so you're going to see an effect in the fourth quarter of the pricing that we saw taking place in the third quarter. When you look at our total product, I think we're about 70%, 75% contract?
Unknown Executive:
65 [ph]
John Ferriola:
65% contract. And of that 65%, roughly 70% is based on monthly, and another 20% is based on quarterly pricing. And as you remember, you saw pricing kind of bottom out in November. So some of that, that you see happening during the month -- the average price declining during the quarter was a result of our contract pricing that occurred based upon our November pricing. So as we see going forward into the first quarter, we see it picking up. I'm not going to give any specifics, but as it has bottomed out. And it's now -- the CRU and sheet in all 3, galvanized, cold rolled and hot band, is improving. We expect that to carry through on our contracts and see it pick up pretty quickly, given a large portion of our contract business is, in fact, done on a monthly basis. Does that answer your question?
Seth Rosenfeld:
Yes, it does. And just one separate question, looking at your exposure to the auto space. Your growth has clearly been very robust in the last couple of years, taking market share. Can you discuss a bit more what sort of progress you've made, both from an R&D perspective and also commercial perspective, in gaining that share, especially into the advanced high-strength steels? At this stage, are you now able to produce and are you supplying to OEMs all major steel grades? Or are there certain parts, like exterior panels, where you're still not supplying, either due to technical or commercial reasons?
John Ferriola:
It's safe to say that we can supply virtually all parts and all sections that go into automotive. We find some products and parts more attractive to supply than others, but we also have to prove to the automotive companies that we can, in fact, supply all of the steels that they require. So we've done it. Again, I would ask you to take a look at our joint venture with JFE. They are a world-renowned producer of all the grades, exposed, nonexposed, high-strength, ultralight, third gen. They do it all. And in qualifying us as a partner, they took a look at our process, our materials. And frankly, the qualification to become partners with them took us 2 to 3 years, but ultimately, it came out very successful. So yes, we can supply all the parts that go in -- virtually all the parts. I don't know that every single part with -- on the steel -- on the sheet side. And we're working to advance on the SBQ side. We've added the heat treating at our Memphis facility. That will give us more access into some of the more sophisticated parts. We set up our Detroit office. We've got -- in Memphis, we've installed a new inspection line that allows us to get into more of the higher-value products that go into automotive. So we've got a lot of things going on to continue to improve our position in automotive. I could tell you that in terms of how are we being received by the automotive companies, it's very favorable for several reasons. Our quality is good. Our service is excellent. Our on-time delivery is very, very good. And frankly, we're a very financially stable company. And as you know, the parts that they specify on a platform might not have to be delivered for 2 to 3 years. They want to make sure that, that company that they're buying from and specifying their platform supply from is, in fact, around in 2 to 3 years. And Nucor, with our financial strength, we're going to be around for a long, long, long time.
Operator:
We next move to Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to kind of follow up on some of the questions about trade cases. Because we've talked about rebar. We've talked about plate. We know sheets have been done. But there hasn't been much on beams, and that continues to see imports and some challenges. SBQ may be too complicated, maybe something else in pipe, maybe some circumvention there. I mean, is there a possibility for exploring other products and approaches that we haven't heard of yet?
John Ferriola:
Yes, yes and no. It is not too complicated to facilitate trade case on SBQ. So clearly -- I'm not being flippant. Clearly, beam, we're looking hard at beam. And I don't want to say too much except that we're gathering the data, and at the appropriate time, we'll take the move -- we'll make the move. And beyond beam, we're looking at structural fabricated products, which have made an inroad into the market here in the United States. They are finding every way possible to circumvent the trade laws. And I believe that they're confident we're going to have a successful trade case on beams, and now they're trying to find ways to get around that by bringing in structural sections. And at the end of the day, we're prepared to file a case on structural sections, working with our customer base. On the SBQ side, wire rod is a case that we're taking a hard look at, okay, and we expect to be able to move forward on. So when you look at -- you mentioned beams. We're ready to move forward. We're anticipating being able to move forward on that very quickly. Wire rod, Chinese sheet piling is another one that we're going -- we're taking a hard look at. I mean I can go on and on and on. But you've hit the ones that we haven't gone after yet. We focused on the largest ones. We dealt with the ones that were most impactful onto our market, and we've taken care of them. Now we continue to move down onto other products. And we won't stop until we're across all products, all markets, making sure that we have a level playing field to compete upon. And when we do that, when we get that, we're confident we're going to be very successful.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, cool. And next, a little less sexy topic. I just wanted to ask you a little bit more about the LIFO, FIFO move and also the tax rate. So the reason we've heard in the past that it wasn't desirable to move to FIFO was partly because LIFO allowed you to pay lower taxes in a rising -- in a declining price environment, I think it was. But anyway, and it took off some of -- no, it allowed you to pay less taxes as costs went up and less earnings. So I'm just wondering, is there anything about the potential changes in tax code that sparked the decision? And then separately, there is something in the language in the press release, I wanted to clarify that, that made it sound like because you reported a higher number because of the change in LIFO that you had a higher compensation expense. It didn't sound like a Nucor thing to pay yourself more because of a change in LIFO, FIFO, but I just wanted to touch base with you on that.
James Frias:
Yes. First, Timna, as we looked at LIFO and FIFO, we're certainly cognizant of the tax ramifications. But if you listened to the comments I made in the script today, taxes weren't the main driver, and they were a side thing that we're just cognizant of and we didn't view -- and we don't believe that the tax implication is changing now. We view that as being negligible. And we're certainly cognizant that there's discussions about the possibility of LIFO not being permitted in the future. But again, that wasn't a primary driver for us. So it's really more about doing a better job of matching revenue and expenses and reflecting the way inventories flow through our process. And it was really -- just started with this whole concept of looking at our capacities and then cause -- that causing us to reevaluate over how we valued our cost of goods sold and our inventories. So back to your second question about compensation. We pay 10% of our pretax profits to our employees below the level of vice president. Vice presidents and above do not participate in profit sharing. And every dollar of LIFO reserve came out of Nucor's pretax profit at some point in history. So when we decided to make that change to LIFO, the biggest portion -- and as well as change the standard cost, the biggest portion of the compensation impact in the fourth quarter, that $0.09, $0.07 of that total was profit sharing for employees below the level of vice president.
Operator:
Next question comes from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs:
Can you provide a status on the Vietnamese circumvention case and the range of potential outcomes that we could see there? Because I think many of us really haven't seen anything like this before, and I'm wondering what it could look like either in part or in full in terms of an outcome.
John Ferriola:
Well, I'll certainly answer that question, and I'll start by agreeing we've never seen anything like this before, so overt. And -- but Phil, before we do that, I do want to make sure I give you credit for working with our team to help us understand the correlation between infrastructure spend and steel consumption. So thank you for that information. That was very helpful, and we'll be using it in the future also. So thanks for that. So let's talk about the circumvention, which we see as, clearly, a case of circumvention. You look at the galvanized product coming in -- cold rolled and galvanized coming from Vietnam into the United States, and that's gone up by about 300%, right? And at the same time, there's been no additional hot band produced in Vietnam. So we're kind of wondering, as you might be, how did they do this? Because this might be some new magical steel technology that we're unaware of. But we think it's more of a case of circumvention. With the Chinese recognizing that they've gotten blocked into the U.S. market. They are shipping substrate into Vietnam, and Vietnam is then cold rolling, reducing it, galvanizing it and sending it into the United States. What's the range of potential penalties? We can't really comment on that. But what I can tell you is that we are -- we will be filing a case as quick as we can get it all together, and we will -- we're in the process of doing that now. And we're anxious to get that result. We think that this will be just another example to the ITC and, frankly, to our administration of how blatant circumvention can be and how people are taking advantage of our trade laws. And we need to put an immediate stop to it.
Philip Gibbs:
Is there a possibility that there could be an exclusion placed on a part of that Vietnamese imported material and not on the other? Or is your understanding that it will be either all or none?
John Ferriola:
It will be all or none, we believe. Obviously, we have to see what the rulings are. But our position is that it will be all or none, and that it clearly should be all.
Philip Gibbs:
Okay, I appreciate that. And then last question for me is, are you seeing any change in customer behavior because of these, call it, in-place trade cases? Or even some of the ones that are in play right now in terms of more of a willingness to work with you as a main supplier or less willingness to go offshore? Just any highlights...
John Ferriola:
Frankly, we're seeing that both on the products in which we've already had rulings and on those that -- trade cases that are in process now and, frankly, even those that our customers know the data supports filing a trade case in the future. In all of those cases, we do see a change in behavior, as it should be. And they're recognizing that they can't count on the steel going forward. They're turning to the domestic suppliers, Nucor being one, but, frankly, our competition also, which we expect. We can comment on that by the orders we see -- the order entry rate we see and also by the phone calls and inquiries that we are getting on our products. So the answer to that is a clear yes, and we think it's appropriate.
Philip Gibbs:
And then, John, I have a quick one. I think, were you invited to meet with the recent president here? And has he asked for your input in terms of what we need to do as a country to, call it, drive better manufacturing utilization across all of our industries? And that's all I have.
John Ferriola:
Yes. Along with other CEOs in the manufacturing world, I have been asked to supply to President Trump my thoughts on what were the 5 most impactful items that were hurting American manufacturing. I've done that. I've been to -- I've been invited to participate in his manufacturing forum. And although we haven't had a meeting with that yet, I'm looking forward to the opportunity to share my thoughts on what we need to do to make America great again by bringing manufacturing back into the United States. So we'll see how all of that plays out, but yes, I have been -- I've shared my thoughts, and I plan to participate in that forum.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to John Ferriola for closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Thank you. Let me conclude by saying to my Nucor family, our customers, our shareholders, thank you. Okay? Thank you for what you do. Thank you for your business. Thank you for your support. Thank you for your hard work every day. Your contributions have led us to a position of strength that we enjoy today and ensure a bright future for our company and for our teammates. But most importantly, thanks for what you do every day. Most importantly, thank you for doing it safely.
Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, President and CEO Jim Frias - CFO Chad Utermark - EVP, Beam and Plate Products Jim Darsey - EVP, Merchant and Rebar Product Joe Stratman - EVP, Raw Materials
Analysts:
Matthew Korn - Barclays Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse Jorge Beristain - Deutsche Bank Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley Phil Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2016 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future effects will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor’s latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC’s and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today’s call are the other members of Nucor’s senior management team
Jim Frias:
Thanks, John. Third quarter of 2016 earnings of $0.84 per diluted share were just below our guidance range of $0.85 to $0.90 per diluted share. However, relative to our guidance, our third quarter results included a larger than expected LIFO charge that decreased our quarterly earnings by $0.08 per diluted share. Third quarter earnings were also reduced by approximately $0.04 per diluted share, the net impact of onetime items. These included expenses for settlement of legal issues as well as a net gain related to asset valuation adjustments. The improvement in earnings in the third quarter compared to the second quarter was due to improved performance at our sheet mills and our direct reduced iron or DRI raw materials facilities. The sheet mills experienced improved margins under contract sales, which are priced on a lag basis. The DRI plants experienced improved transfer pricing of the DRI they sold during the quarter to our steel mills. Overall market conditions were very challenging during the third quarter. That was clearly evidenced by a decline in our steel mills segment’s capacity utilization rate to 71% in the third quarter from 83% in the second quarter. Third quarter total steel mill tons shipped decreased by 12% from the second quarter 2016. Our tax rate can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was approximately 32.8% for the third quarter and 32.9% for the first nine months of 2016. Nucor’s financial position remains strong. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 35% at the close of the third quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $2.3 billion, which compares with total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion. Nucor’s strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until April 2021. Nucor holds the highest credit ratings of any North American headquartered steel producer. During the third quarter, we restructured our natural gas supply agreements with Encana. Low cost natural gas is critical to the long-term success of Nucor’s raw material strategy. The restructuring ensures that our Louisiana DRI plant has a secure and low cost supply of natural gas for decades into the future. In turn, DRI gives Nucor the flexibility to optimize the mix and most importantly, our metallic input costs. Iron units represent more than half of the total costs of our steel making operations. Just as important, a secure and low cost supply of high-quality iron units such as DRI, supports our growth strategy of moving up to value chain into more demanding steel applications. We expect constraints in supply and cost of higher quality scrap to grow in the years ahead. Here is a recap of the major elements of the restructuring. Nucor purchased 49% of Encana’s leasehold interest covering approximately 54,000 acres in the South Piceance Basin, Nucor and Encana terminated two Carry and Earning drilling agreements entered into in 2010 and 2012. Nucor also sold to Encana its 50% equity interest in Hunter Ridge gas gathering and processing assets located in the North Piceance Basin. The benefits of the new structure are significant; I will outline the top four. First, the leasehold interest provides Nucor full discretion on its participation in all future capital investments; our decision to invest in any drilling is independent of other leasehold partners. Second by canceling the Carry and Earning drilling agreements, Nucor has eliminated all future Carry cost premiums and contingent liabilities associated with these contracts; that improves Nucor’s capital flexibility and should result in lower future drilling costs. Three, Nucor owns a tangible asset, the acreage interest rather than contractual rights. Four, Nucor’s acreage interest is expected to be able to meet the current gas usage for all of our steel mills and our DRI facility in Louisiana for decades into the future. The net result of these transactions is a lower cost and more flexible hedge against higher natural gas costs for our Louisiana DRI facility and our core steel making operations. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2016 are expected to decrease notably compared to the third quarter. The two most significant challenges are expected to be downward contract pricing resets at our sheet mills and the impact of lower iron units pricing at our raw materials segment. Beyond these near-term issues, we see a number of positive factors that should benefit the steel markets moving into 2017. Steel service center inventories are low, residential construction is robust, while non-residential construction activity is expected to continue its slow but steady pace of improvement. Trends in U.S. employment and consumer spending remain healthy. More vigorous enforcement of trade laws has began to reduce the flow of illegally traded imports into the U.S. We are confident that Nucor’s significant competitive advantages and highly flexible business model will allow our team to continue to execute on our proven strategies for delivering profitable long-term growth and attractive returns to Nucor shareholders. Thank you for your interest in our Company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor’s strategy for profitable growth is working. We can see the payoff even in the challenging markets of the current prolonged downturn. It is evident in our strong cash flow generation and our industry-leading returns on capital. Most importantly, it is positioning Nucor to deliver higher highs and profitability during the inevitable cyclical upturn. We’re executing our long-term growth strategy by leveraging Nucor’s five drivers to profitable growth. The five drivers are
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Ferriola. [Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew Korn:
So, looking and understanding your expectations for the fourth quarter, as you laid out in this morning’s release, how would you characterize just today, your inbound orders rates versus say two weeks ago or even last month? Are there any signs of buyers’ appetites increasing or their willingness to pay higher prices starting to merge even on the margin?
John Ferriola:
If you look at the order entry rate, particularly in our sheet products over the last couple of weeks, we have seen an uptick. This was not unexpected. It’s a typical annual order entry trend -- patterns that we see. Towards the end of the third quarter, towards the middle of the third quarter, you start seeing order entry slack, people beginning to look at year-end inventories. This year when you look at the third quarter and people saw scrap pricing starting to decline and also close and to slow down on their order entry rates. But then as they get into the latter part of the third quarter, the end of the quarter, as we go into the beginning of the fourth quarter, we would expect -- we see order entry rate picking up in anticipation of receiving the tonnage in the beginning of the New Year.
Matthew Korn:
Let me ask then, you’ve been very active on the M&A and on the investment front, as you went over. Should we expect more from you as we look over the next six months, has this -- the current price declined in steel; is that dislodge [ph] of the assets that you’ve been interested in? And barring that what would be your sense the potential for any substantial buyback or a lift in the dividend? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
As we always say, we don’t comment on anything specific but clearly, our financial position is very strong, our cash generation from operations is very strong. We have the ability to go after targets that we think will bring long-term profitable growth to our Company and a great return to our shareholders. So, we are always on the lookout for opportunities. And then, of course as we’ve said many times in the past, if we don’t see any opportunities that are out there that we think will brining value to our Company and we have an excess of cash on hand, we’ll always look at -- we look at the possibility of share back buyback or in one form or another returning cash to our shareholders. But of course our first priority is always long-term profitable growth through investment when the opportunities present themselves.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curt Woodworth:
John, when you look at your volume performance in the sheet mill this quarter, it was fairly similar from utilization rate basis as last quarter -- I’m sorry, a year ago quarter when you were facing pretty severe import pressure as well as a relatively choppy non-res market. Today, you have the greatest [ph] victory as you’ve got non-res improving, auto’s relatively more resilient, and you have the fact a lot of the U.S. blast furnaces have ceded a fair amount of hot band market share to the EAF. So, I’m just curious what is your take on that? And I guess from a macros basis, what do you see maybe is particularly weaker than you thought at the exit of last quarter?
John Ferriola:
Let me start by making a few comments on your question. When we look at automotive, we see it just about the same as last year; we don’t see it significantly better. In terms of non-residential construction, we really don’t see it much more improved than last year. In fact, if you go through the course of the year, particularly towards the middle of 2016, there was actually a decrease in the activity on non-residential construction. So, we don’t see much of a pop from that side either. And although we have been very successful in our trade cases, particularly on sheet, we’re really just beginning to see the impact of that. And frankly we do see imports going down but still they represent a very large portion of total market share that’s why we continue to fight the battle and we will continue to fight and be successful in the battle against illegal imports. So, we are just beginning to see some of that impact. But let me address another point of the capacity utilization, particularly as it applies here at Nucor. We’ve talked many times about our commitment to pursuing higher value products and we are going to continue to do that. We believe that having improved margins, and profitability is more important than utilization. And as we’ve said in the past, as you move, as you change your product mix to those higher valued, higher quality products that usually has an impact on your run rates in the mills. A great example would be the wide-wide projects at our Berkeley facility or the wider piling sections at our Nucor- Yamato facility. Both of those have reduced the run rate significantly although at much more profitable products. So, we don’t get so hung-up on utilization. We’ve mentioned on the last call and I’ll mention it again that we intend to at the end of the year, take a hard look at how our product mix has shifted over the last several years. It’s been forever since we adjusted the denominator in this calculation. And we’re going to take a hard look at how a product mix shift has impacted our capacity and as a result influenced our capacity utilization. So, that’s how I would answer your question. We’re looking more at the products that we’re producing and we feel good about the way that we’re that shifting our product mix.
Curt Woodworth:
And then, just with respect to trade and the Vietnam petition, it seems like there’s a problem of view that processing or cold-rolling material in Vietnam doesn’t fundamentally change the nature -- or does fundamentally change what the product is. Can you just kind of comment on the nuance of that and how you think the Department of Commerce is going to treat that issue specifically?
John Ferriola:
I’m not going to go into too much detail as this is an ongoing investigation and has not done a final determination on this. We feel strongly, very strongly that our opposition is a strong one, it’s clear to us. Our opinion is it’s clearly an issue of circumvention. You can look at the percentage of imports of cold-rolled products from China into Vietnam and seen a tremendous jump over the last six months. It’s clear what’s going on. And we think that particularly when you look at the political environment today where on both sides of the aisle, there’s a recognition of what’s going on around the world with illegal trade. I feel and our team feels very confident that we’ll be successful this circumvention case.
Operator:
And your next question is from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge Beristain:
Maybe, John, if you could comment about the current pricing that you’re seeing in -- sorry, in the heavy plate market. We just noticed that plate prices have fallen and are basically now below HRC and you’ve recently announced the price hikes. So, if you could just talk about what you’re seeing in that market? That’s my first question.
John Ferriola:
Well, let me -- I’ll start off and I’ll hand over to Chad, Executive Vice President, In-charge of our plate business. But just as a general comment, obviously, we’re not going to speak about any pricing specific, but the plate market has been very challenging. It’s had a tough year on plate, it doesn’t look like it’s getting much better towards the end of the year. We can go market-by-market but there’s no small market right now that we would point to say that we’re going to see a big pop in price. I would make one comment and then Chad you can build on this. When you look at the pricing levels in place today, personally I feel that it’s just not sustainable over the long term. Chad, would you like to add anything to that.
Chad Utermark:
Thanks, John. I agree, the plate market is very challenged currently. Your assessment of where plate prices are compared to hot-rolled is true that being below hot-rolled prices which they are now according to CRU is something that we have rarely seen over the history of pricing. So, I do not believe that’s sustainable long term. There’s some fundamental demand, challenges out there in the plate market right now. And we did announce recently a plate price increase that was the late last week and we’re monitoring that situation at this time.
John Ferriola:
I just might mention too Chad that we didn’t have a successful plate trade case against a violator who was dumping a significant amount of plate into the country and that was China. And we had a very positive outcome on that case.
Chad Utermark:
Yes. And there is a very important date coming up in November where we will get the AD rulings from commerce on the remaining eight countries. So, those are some of the things that we’re monitoring closely in the plate market.
Jorge Beristain:
Great. And sorry, I had a second question if possible. Just the housekeeping on Independence Tube, would you be segmenting that under your steel products or your structural steel tube segment, which is kind of that’s how your steel mill segment, just to try and understand, sort of how you view that operation in terms of value add?
John Ferriola:
Jim.
Jim Darsey:
Right now, we’re probably going put it in steel products. We haven’t made a final determination, but we’re thinking it belongs to steel products.
Operator:
We’ll go next to Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
In light of the fact that met coal is all of a sudden back to the region that you I think started to invest in DRI. I wanted to get a sense of if we were to believe that scrap moves with met, are we looking at it again returning to that advantage that you are hoping for in DRI and how’re you thinking about what heads that might offer you in a strong met coal environment into 2017?
John Ferriola:
Well, clearly there are several things that scrap price tends to be linked to, certainly, one of the most important is volume. And as the mill business picks up, people have greater demand for scarp, price for scrap goes up. There is also a linkage, as you mentioned to coking coal. And we expect to see some small increase as a result of that. But, as we see scrap right now, scrap is at a pretty low number, we think it’s probably at the bottom. As we look out for the rest of the year, we might see a small incremental increase but nothing substantial. Joe, anything you want to add to that?
Joe Stratman:
No, I think you really covered it, John. As we head into the winter, there is always going to be a seasonality issue or potential on scrap a flow, northern scrap yards need to close down or slow down et cetera. But any strength that gives us just probably just seasonal, and ultimately it will follow the demand of the steel mills.
John Ferriola:
I will take it away scrap for a minute and say that as you look at what’s going to happen as these companies are going into next year’s contract for buying coking coal, we believe that there will be an increase based upon the current spot buy. And obviously on final product, we see that that’s going to put us in a more competitive position then we were when coking coal was at half the price that it’s today.
Timna Tanners:
Right. And DRI versus pig iron, same story, maybe a little more explicit connection to the met coal price?
Joe Stratman:
Yes. Timna, this is Joe Stratman. Clearly that’s true. I mean, obviously one of the major cost components of either pig iron or DRI is what form of reductant do you use and what reductant that -- what cost that reductant is at. So, you compare the cost of coking coal as your reductant in a pig iron environment versus natural gas and the DRI environment, you can clearly see some cost differential depending on where those two commodities are moving.
John Ferriola:
Timna, if I could just add something quickly and that is this is exactly why we move forward with the DRI strategy. We look at it as we’ve talked about many times just as a hedge. It gives us a flexibility, gives us balance and as cost of raw materials change, cost of raw materials and steel making represent more than 50% of the cost of the product, this gives us a tremendous advantage as things shift. And given, our DRI and our DJ Joseph Company, the ability to buy pig iron or HB iron when it makes sense, DRI facilities to be able to buy scrap internationally. These are the kinds of things when you have these kinds of movements as we’ve seen today in coking coal and really point to the value of our long-term raw material strategy.
Timna Tanners:
Sure. That’s why we asked about it because we are back to those nickel prices [Multiple Speakers]. Okay, alright. I’ll ask the tougher question now. Sorry. So, I know you talked about -- or I guess I’ll ask about Big River I guess to ask a tougher question. By the end of the year, we’re expecting Big River volumes to come on that is little bit in your geographic sweet spot. I know that Nucor has been moving away from commodity steels and to more value add products. But can you give us a little bit more color on how you are thinking about the arrival of Big River values -- volume and what that means for Nucor?
John Ferriola:
It’s another competitor and we’ve never shied away from competition as well as long it’s fair and legal, we love it. And we’re confident that we can take it on without having an impact upon our business. Certainly, it’s going to hurt the market; certainly, it is going to have an influence on the market. But given what we’ve been doing, particularly in the southeast and then markets that we have been targeting, as we move up the value chain, certainly it’s going to be a while before they can move up into the same areas that -- products that we are producing, particularly the high strengths, franchise [ph] strengths and the automotive kind of markets that we are moving into. So, you’re right, as we move away from -- more and more away from these more commodity grades, we’ll have less of an impact. I’ll also point out to you, Timna, you heard in our script about our Specialty Cold Mill Complex that’s going into Hickman might point out the difference, I don’t know how many miles but not that many miles away from Big River steel. And we are confident that unique mill equipment that we are putting in there, it’s going to give us an ability to produce products that we can’t produce today but products that certainly Big River can’t produce today, and we think that that will give us another edge over them as they come up with their more commoditized products.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, great. And if I could slip on last one on that same thing, I mean if we expect let’s say hypothetically autos is flat going forward from here is our case we made that Nucor could continue to increase its share there and can you quantify that?
John Ferriola:
Listen, we are very confident. We first of all -- just to comment on your statement, we agree. We think that going into 2017, orders will be basically flat, we don’t see it going up, it might go down a little bit but we don’t see it changing significantly. And even in that environment, we will continue to grow our market share, not only in the types of products that we can produce that go into automotive but frankly in the number of automotive companies that have interest in doing business with us. As we’ve said many times, our target is to reach 2 million tons by 2018; today we are somewhere around 1.4, 1.45 in that range. And the team here will tell you that our next target is 3 million tons by 2021. I will tell you that our next target is to be maintaining tons by 2020. And frankly the JV that you have heard us talk about in the script, the JV with JFE is going to be a big boost, not only in that particular project or on the galvanizing side, but frankly the recognition that Nucor has achieved by being picked as a partner with JFE, clearly the premier automotive field producer in the world will put to bed finally this argument about whether or not automotive grade steel can be made in an electric arc furnace shop, particularly one that has Nucor name on the front of the facility.
Operator:
We’ll go to next to Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan Kurtz:
I have a question for you on CRU-minus contracts. So, I guess as few years back we started hearing about these for the first time and they cause a lot of problems in the market because it kind of created negative feedback with the pricing. And I thought that they went away, but then I was actually talking to some steel buyers the last few months, and they were talking about having to compete with CRU-minus again. So, I was just wondering if you can give an update like are these a big factor in the market again? Has that changed much over the last few years? And how that’s influencing things right now?
John Ferriola:
Clearly CRU-minus drifts in and drifts out, depending upon how the market conditions are. And right now, we’ve heard the same things that you’ve heard that there are some companies out there offering CRU-minus contracts again. But, I want to be real clear about this, we do not do that; we don’t think it’s a good business practice. And we take a different approach to it. We think that we sell our products based on quality, service, on-time delivery and we do what we need to do to and be competitive to situations but we do not offer CRU-minus on our sheet business.
Evan Kurtz:
And then maybe one other on rebar trade case. So, I know -- the industry tried a trade case on rebar few years back in I guess Turkey and the numbers weren’t really -- rather de minimis. So, what about the case is different this time. I know there’s been some trade laws passed between now and then. How is that going to influence the outcome this time around?
John Ferriola:
Well, we feel very positive about the outcome. And frankly, we were disappointed with the outcome last time. But you’re right, the recent changes in the trade laws that we had put into effect last year, these levels of playing field that gave us more tools that we could better argue these cases, we believe more successfully argue these cases. And I will tell you that on rebar particular, we think that we have a strong case to be made. But frankly, when you look at the results that came out of the last trade case, particularly as they related to Turkey, there were commitments made during those hearings where Turkey said that they would not increase their imports into the United States, and you talk about the plastic hockey stick, these things went off the charts. And the fact that the way that the country acted with their imports into United States on rebar after the trade cases left on, we think provides tremendous ammunition for us in this case. And we’re anxious to prosecute it.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
You mentioned a lot of these organic growth projects that you’ve got going on over the next couple of years, any sense in terms of the size, Jim, of the CapEx budget this year and next year just to help us with that?
Jim Frias:
Yes, we’ve been saying 500 million for this year but that’s actually now going to be up to 635 on a gross basis, because of the reallocation or resetting of our agreements with Encana. But we’re also disposing of a 135 million of assets. So, the net increase is still 500 in our total PP&E. Next year budget has not been set, but I know that there is fairly big ask on the table coming up from the divisions. So, I would think it’s going to probably be at least strong at this year’s that 500 million range.
Operator:
We’ll take our next question from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
A question for Jim on the LIFO. I would have guessed with scrap down and some of the other commodities down that you would be going the other way towards LIFO income. Can you comment on what you might expect for the full year or what drove the higher expected LIFO this quarter?
Jim Frias:
Yes. So, if you look at where we’re at end of the half, we have $46.5 million of expanse on a gross basis and we’re targeting 93 million for the year. And based on what we did in third quarter, we’re now targeting 141 for the year, which means we are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood, if our estimates today are accurate, in the neighborhood of 35 million of LIFO expense in the fourth quarter. And the reason we bumped up the pace is because of the timing of how -- mainly how, the timing how DIR and pig iron affect us. And we buy pig iron on a lagging quarter basis and it influences our overall cost of DIR as well. And so, those two commodities came in deliveries in the third quarter, and it influenced our inventory overall positioning; it took greater step than we were expecting. So that’s changed our outlook for the balance at the end of year.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
Okay, thank you. And John, the question on the -- might be a little political but given both candidates are out there with pretty massive comments on infrastructure, one bigger than the other, and I know Trump has the nickel [ph] on his team. I am wondering whether you one candidate or the other as more beneficial to infrastructure spending and whether you also would expect either candidate to come out with something that could be significant and early in their tenure?
John Ferriola:
Well, I am just going to make a general comment, say that we’re really pleased that both sides of the aisle, both candidates and both political parties are finally understanding the importance of fair and balanced trade. And we’re really excited about that, whichever candidate that gives in, we hope that they live up to the campaign promises they made to recognize the importance of enforcing our trade laws. And also building on second part of your question, both candidates have spoken about the infrastructure of the United States. And I will tell you to me personally, as you know I come from New York. I was in New York a few weeks ago, the conditions of the highways and bridges in New York are deplorable; it’s an embracement to United States of America. And when you look at some of the estimates that are out there today by different agencies that rate the bridges, rate the roads, they are talking about a need of spending almost $3 trillion over the next five years, just to get them up to a B or B plus level. Think about that amount; that’s tremendous, it’s long overdue. I hope both candidates or whichever candidate -- excuse me, each of the candidates, whichever gets in, lives up to their commitment, both on infrastructure and on maintaining the strong enforcement of our trading loss. And that goes not only for the presidency but for congress also.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
And John, the assets that you have not operating today, you know the utilization rate not at 100%, would you say it’s fair that the ones that are not at full capacity are mostly the construction related steels?
John Ferriola:
As a general statement, yes.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I’d like to turn it back over to Mr. John Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
So, let me just conclude by saying to our Nucor family, our customers, our shareholders, our teammates, thank you. Thank you for your business, thank you for your support. To our teammates, thank you for your hard work that you do every day. Your contributions have led us to the position of strength that we enjoy today and ensure a bright future for all of us. Most importantly to my teammates, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President, Bar Products Chad Utermark - Executive Vice President-Beam & Plate Products
Analysts:
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc. Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies International Ltd. Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Alessandro Abate - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom) Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future effects – events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Thanks, John. Second quarter of 2016 earnings of $0.73 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.65 to $0.70 per diluted share. This performance represents a significant improvement over first quarter 2016 earnings of $0.22 per diluted share and year-ago second quarter earnings $0.39 per diluted share. Second quarter results included a LIFO charge of $19 million which was in line with our guidance. This compared with the first quarter of 2016 charge of $28 million and a year-ago second quarter credit of $96 million. Our steel mill segment was the primary driver of our second quarter profit improvement with the largest gains at our sheet mills. Quarter-over-quarter profit growth was also achieved at our plate and bar mills. Nucor's Steel Making Operations benefited from both volume growth and higher metal margins. Second quarter total steel mill shipments increased 5% over the first quarter of 2016. Our overall steel mill metal margin expanded by $16 per ton in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. Our downstream products segment also delivered strong earnings growth in the second quarter from the first quarter and 2015 second quarter levels. Nucor's steel products business benefits from our market leadership positions and our diversified product portfolio. The strength of Nucor's downstream products business model allows us to profitably leverage a modest improvement in non-residential construction markets. Performance at our raw materials segment also improved in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. David J. Joseph Company scrap brokerage and scrap processing businesses were solidly profitable in the second quarter. The improvements at DJJ's recycling business were three-fold. First, scrap pricing improved. Second, utilization and volume flows increased to support our steel mills' increased production. Third, our scrap processing team has done excellent work achieving efficiency improvements and cost reductions throughout their operations. Our direct reduced iron or DRI facilities achieved significant quarter-over-quarter improvement in their financial performance. At the same time, our raw materials teams continued to enhance Nucor's overall profitability by working with our steel mills to optimize the cost of their iron units, Maintaining Nucor's position as the low cost producer across our raw materials, steel making, and steel products businesses is an unrelenting focus for all of our teams. Our tax rate can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was approximately 32.5% for the second quarter of 2016. Nucor's financial position remains strong. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 35% at the close of the second quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $2.3 billion, which compares with total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until 2021. Nucor is the only North American headquartered steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. Our capital allocation priorities are clear. They have been consistently and effectively practiced over Nucor's entire history. Our first priority is to invest for profitable long-term growth that delivers attractive returns on our invested capital. Our second priority is to provide our shareholders with cash dividends that are consistent with our success in growing Nucor's earnings. Our third priority is to opportunistically repurchase our stock when our cash position is strong and attractively-priced growth opportunities are limited. We expect further strong improvement in earnings in the third quarter of 2016. The steel mills segment will benefit from contract pricing resets in the third quarter at our sheet mills. Contracts currently represent about 60% of Nucor's sheet mill volume. The steel products segment continues to experience positive earnings momentum. Particularly strong profit growth is being realized at the Rebar fabrication and metal buildings businesses. All of our steel products teams are doing excellent work managing the challenge of this year's rising steel price environment. The raw materials segment's performance is expected to achieve profitability in the third quarter of 2016. Our DRI facilities will be profitable, benefiting from improved product pricing, lower iron ore cost, and continued gains in yield performance. Our Trinidad and Louisiana plants are now consistently performing at what we believe to be world-class conversion cost levels. Our David J. Joseph Company's scrap business should also benefit from the more favorable scrap pricing environment that has been in place since the spring of this year. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages and highly adaptable business model will allow our team to continue to execute our proven strategies for delivering profitable long-term growth and attractive returns to Nucor shareholders. We appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor's strategy for profitable growth is simple, flexible and focused. It is one that we've implemented for more than five decades. Nucor capitalizes on its unrivaled position of strength to gain profitable market share in our core businesses of steel and steel products. We are doing this by taking care of our customers, delivering an unrivaled value proposition for our customers is how we earn attractive returns on our shareholders' valuable capital. Anchoring our strategy are Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth, they are
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our first question from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Good afternoon everybody. Thanks for taking my questions.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hello Matt, how are you?
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I'm all right. I'm all right, John. So, we're all watching the import numbers carefully. I'm wondering, do your customers show indication to you and expectation that they think availability of imported steel is going to meaningfully increase over the rest of this year?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Actually, the feedback that we hear from our customers is that it's frankly the opposite. But our customers are telling us that when they look at the final landed price of the import offers, the difference isn't great enough to justify the risk. The other point that I would make is when you look at where we are in this – where we are this year, and our customers buying imports today, placing the orders today, can't really expect the deliveries until sometime in mid – somewhat – either early fourth quarter or mid-fourth quarter. And at that point, best time to think about the year-end inventories. So, I think, there's a bit of a hesitation to do too much on the ordering on the import side as a result of that concerns over their year-end inventories. I also would point out a little bit about the – there's some availability issues and the volumes are less available that are out there today, a lot as a result of the trade cases, the successful prosecution of the trade cases that we've had particularly in sheet, but in some of our other products and also a concern that our customers have over the other trade cases that are currently in process. So, based on all of that information and from feedback we're getting from our customers, we don't see that as a major concern at this time.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. Thanks. It's very helpful. Let me follow-up this way if I could, on scrap...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
...how do the flows to the shredders look so far this summer? So, when you look at the moving pieces, the export demand, or lack thereof, competition from cheap Chinese semis, the high utilization rates from you and the other EAF producers, do you see much upside risk to scrap prices over the rest of the year?
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
Matthew, this is Joe Stratman. Let me take a shot of that. The flows have been improved through the course of the year, as you might imagine. The increased demand from steel mills across the country raised prices, and with the price increases flow followed into the scrap yards, which is the normal trend. At this point, with the currency exchange, the strength in the U.S. dollar, the weakness in Europe, in other words, so there's a lot of scrap available in Europe, and the Chinese billets moving around the world, the trade flows there, I don't see a lot of upside pressure on scrap. But similarly, the demand – the robust demand for domestic steel mills, I think, also keeps the demand side level, and that we have reached a pretty good point of supply and demand, where we would view a lot of stability in the last half of the year on scrap pricing.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And Joe, what I might add to that, when you think about our DRI facilities and the leveling effect that has to our company, and frankly, for the industry as well, as some of the pig iron imports that we've been bringing into the country also could be a stabilizing factor.
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
Absolutely, John. As I mentioned, the strength of the dollar and the supply available of scrap in Europe, but also as John mentioned pig iron, from both Brazil and from Eastern Europe, and Russia, the supply is pretty stable right now. And also, as John answered in the first part of your question, we think the demand outlook is also good and not negative in any way. So, supply demand on the scrap side should keep stability there for quite a while we think.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, gentlemen.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon, Evan. How are you?
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. Great. Doing well. Thanks. First question's on trade. We've seen some success on the sheet side. And I was wondering, what are the timing if we wanted to do more incremental work on trade on the sheet products? So, one thing that kind of comes to mind is we saw results from coated, some of the results from cold-rolled, and some of the countries are getting similar duties, not many, but Taiwan for example in coated. And I think, we'll probably see some cold-rolled results pretty soon, maybe there'll be another hole or two there. For these types of countries already entering that, maybe some of the Taiwan offers are back in the market again, now that we've gone after them, and they kind of escaped at least this initial round of cases, how long does the industry have to wait before they can go after them, again, if they do to start to tick up in the future? And then kind of the same question on countries that make cheap products that weren't named in the initial cases. Because maybe they weren't big suppliers of the U.S. market, but now that some other guys can't sell into the U.S market, they're stepping up and hearing just some talk about cold-rolled coming in from Vietnam and maybe a couple of the European countries, the numbers are starting to tick up a little bit. Is there anything preventing the U.S. industry from going after a fresh round of cases on the same product from different countries?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, to answer that question directly, the answer would be, no. Certainly, if we see an uptick, and the uptick comes with product that is priced at dump levels, then we believe that there's a violation of our trading laws, then we certainly would go – would go after that. And I know that about that. The other point that I would want to make, proceeding to the question is when you mentioned there are other countries stepping into supply, such as Vietnam or some new suppliers, bear in mind that they're untested, they won't qualify in many of these applications, through extensive qualification period, and you're taking a larger risk. When you look at – and frankly, the pricing that's coming in is higher from those countries. So, when you combine the higher price with the increased risk with the less places where it can be applied because of qualifications, we don't see that much as of a threat. But, however, to your point, if we do see an uptick in it, and we do see it coming in at dump prices, or we see it coming in from countries that are receiving large subsidies from their governments, or in any other way violating our trade and international trade laws, then we are certainly free to take action. And to your point about moving to the smaller suppliers, bear in mind to the fact that we were able to be so successful against the big boys, the big suppliers, the ones who were bringing in large volumes of steel at incredibly dump prices. When you take that out of the equation, we certainly don't have any problem competing with product coming in at fair prices from other countries as long as they adhere to the trade laws.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Got it. Okay. Thanks. And then maybe just a quick one for Jim. Corporate expense was pretty high this quarter, and I know it's very lumpy. Just wondering what might have been driving that, and if we should expect that to return that to normal by next quarter?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Well, the biggest driver in the year-to-date difference is LIFO. LIFO went from $112 million credit to a $46.5 million expense. That's about $160 million swing of the total difference of $230 million, roughly. The next biggest drivers probably the profit on intercompany sales. We always have some volume of intercompany inventory at our downstream businesses. And with our steel mills having higher margins, we have to take a charge to write that inventory value down to its cost of production. And so, there's a takeaway there from the profits still in those segment. And then finally, we do have a significant part of our pay across the company, including our profit sharing for the retirement accounts of our workforce, that's driven our profitability. It says probably $25-ish million of the difference is profit sharing and incentive comp being in spite of the fact we're making more money. It's a good thing, but more than that, number's changing, happy our shareholders are.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
All right. Thanks for the color, guys.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse.
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse:
Hi. Good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon, Curt.
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse:
John, I was wondering if you could just talk to the strength of your sheet order book right now. How are lead times looking, say, relative to a month ago? And there's been some discussion around – for you guys with quarterly contracts if the service center buyer wanted to try to pre-buy ahead of what is going to be a very sizeable increase in their ASP price. This quarter are you seeing any evidence of that?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right. Let me address your first question. When we look at our bookings on sheet, when we talk about cold-rolled and galvanized, frankly, they're rock solid. We are way out probably to...
Unknown Speaker:
Late September.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
...late September – somewhere around late September. So, we're looking really good on the cold-rolled and on the galvanized. On the hot-rolled side, we're seeing a little bit more pressure, but that being said, on the hot-rolled side, when we look at the service center inventory levels, they're extremely low. And with the reduced imports and some of our competitors shutting down operations, we see reduction in supply. So, although we are seeing a slowdown in the order entry rate for hot-rolled, and it's a little bit more challenged in cold-rolled or galv, we're still pretty comfortable with where we are in the hot-rolled market.
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse:
Okay. That's great. And then second question just on sort of the M&A pipeline. It seems like there's definitely a hunt on for downstream acquisitions in the industry. And I think one school of thought has been, potentially trying to acquire pipe and tube assets to leverage the hot-band capacity that people have. Is that something that you guys would entertain, and can you just kind of talk to how robust your pipeline is right now for acquisitions?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we've mentioned several times that part of our bold strategy is to enhance our channels to the market, and with that, a very successful track record of utilizing our downstream operations, not only to get to the final customer as a channel to the market, but also as very, very strong profit generators in their own like. So, we're always open to that. I wasn't – we're open to many opportunities, always out there looking for where we can invest our cash for – in long-term profitable growth. So, I'm not including anything, I'm not excluding anything, and I'm not going to comment anything in particular. But one area that we are focused on, and you'll be more from us as how we continue to increase on our hot rolled, which you mentioned specifically, where we would be with our hot rolled, we continue to invest in our hot rolled to a highest quality level. Some of the field work that we're doing in Gallatin today is investing to take it out of simply the pipe and tube market and get it into higher quality downstream businesses. So, general answer, we're interested in everything, we look hard at everything. You heard us say that we have a very focused and flexible investment strategy, growth strategy. And we'll look at whatever comes along. We don't have any strong preferences to any particular downstream business.
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse:
And could you just remind us what your hot-rolled mix is relative to the value-add sheet in the sheet business?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. it's about – hot rolled is about 60% – 60% to 65% of our total sheet business.
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse:
Okay. Great. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Our next question is from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, guys. Good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. How are you?
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I'm great. Thanks. I wanted to ask you a little bit more about your product mix. If you could drill down, just looking at your data here, we're kind of surprised to see the structural number decline. And even the sheet number bounced a lot, I think, as was discussed, the 550 average is much lower than where the spot market's been, even just for HRC. And I know there's a lag, but are we missing something, or is there any other reason why that average sheet price is so much lower? Even looking at CRE numbers, I can't quite reconcile, and so just wondering, if you could give us a little more color?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, you hit the nail in the head when you talked about our contract pricing. We have a very large percentage of our sheet business on the contract, and it does lag. And most people tend to just think about it as a single month lagging, but when you add into the lead times that are involved, you have to really extend that out a little bit. So, when it comes to the questions of pricing on sheet, I would say that without a doubt, the issue there is of large percentage of contract pricing, and we expect to have – to fix that up in the third quarter. So, we're looking forward to that happening. On the question about structural, we had a nice jump in our structural percentage from quarter-over-over last quarter. So, it's not unusual for us to see a smaller jump quarter-over-quarter in second quarter over first quarter.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Yeah. But, Timna...
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Can you talk about the pricing on – yeah, okay.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Yeah. Just a comment, overall demand for structural products year-over-year is up about 3% or 4%. Our Nucor shipments of structural steel is up about 15%. So, while quarter-over-quarter, we dropped just a tad, a significant part of that was some major outages that we had at Nucor-Yamato.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just to be clear, I was asking about prices. Are you – or was there may be a mix shift or something that caused that decline. Is that what you're saying?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Obviously, mix can play a huge role in our pricing on our structural side, yes.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got you. Okay. And then last quarter, I asked a question, I'm going to ask the same one again, make it nice and easy for you. So, you're running at 2.4 million tons of sheet in the first quarter, and you're at 2.5 million tons. So, you did ramp up, as we discussed. But I'm still perplexed as the answer then you said was 11.5 million to 12 million annualized tons is more normal, and on an annualized basis, you're still running at 10 million tons. So question is, do you have spare capacity to run more sheet in light of these tight market conditions?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we have limited capacity serving our cold-rolled and galv. And I would say, we have some capacity available on hot rolled, as we look out past the next couple of weeks. One of the other things, Chad mentioned the issue of mix, and I'm moving the same thing up on the side of hot rolled. So, as we continue to shift our mix higher and higher on the value-added, a lot of that product runs slower on our mills, and we can deduce less number of tons. The poster child example of that would be at our Berkeley mill, with the wide and light product, moving into the advanced high strength steels. To produce the high strength steel product, takes a lot extra – takes extra time in the LMF, takes extra time in the vacuum tank degasser. And then, of course, running at those very light gauges, it takes extra time to run through the mill. So, it's basically a question of mix, more than anything else.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So, if I understand, you're saying, on hot rolled, you may have a little more capacity, in general, but you're printing pretty full out on the more premium sheet rates, is that fair?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, exactly.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey, guys. Jorge Beristain with DB. I guess, most of my questions have been asked, but maybe you could comment a little bit about – with the Big River plant coming up in the fourth quarter this year or 1Q 2017. The current supply tightness that we're seeing in the market, are you bracing for any kind of impact of new supply coming into the market?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, you just found the panic to everybody in this room. We thought we thought one of our cell phones went off. Whosever phone that was? And that's what all the chuckering is about. Everybody reached for their cell phones in their pockets. But, so going back to your question about Big River Steel coming on line, certainly, that will add supply. Are we concerned about it? We'll, it's a competitor, that's a good thing. We've had new competitors coming online and pass. Over the last several years, we deal with it. We're not afraid of competition. And I would say to you that frankly it's more than just equipment that comes online. It's – you got to have the relationships with the customers. You've got teammates who understand how to make the products. You have to – we have advantages, such as our diversity. An advantage that, I believe, we would have over them or other competitors is our vertical integration, and our ability to take advantage to that vertical integration. So, we'll – they'll come online, we'll deal with them. And one of the things that is nice about having extra competition that's coming from the domestic source is they do play by the same rules as us, and they can't cheat, and we like that. So I'll take extra competition from the U.S. suppliers and international on any day or week.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Sorry, and I have to apologize that was my phone, so I apologize, sorry.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Okay. Just trying to comment...
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Murphy's law. The other question I had was just maybe on supplier discipline within the U.S. market. Are you hearing that everybody is adhering to their official list prices, or could you comment a little bit about if there's any kind of breakdown of discipline?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I can't comment on what other suppliers are doing, and I won't. Okay. I can only tell you what we're doing about our – in our business, so if you have a question that's specific to Nucor, they have been answered, but I can't comment on what others are doing.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from Seth Rosenfeld with Jefferies.
Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Can we talk a little more about the outlook for your DRI facilities? And can you talk a bit more, to what extent the improving outlook for Q3 earnings is driven by your input cost and sales expectations for the period versus yield improvements as Louisiana continues to ramp up? And looking further out, can you just comment on what the cost sensitivity would be potentially widening that galv prices looking forward? Can you just...
Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President:
Yeah. This is Ladd. I'll take a shot at that. Without question, the biggest driver of our improvement in our DRI plants are our costs and our yield improvements. They've done a superb job down there, figuring out how to take a huge amount of yield loss and out of that – for all that; second, they continue to keep a very, very high level of quality. Our steel mills are using it – learning how to use the materials better and better. And in fact, most of our steel mills with that material, they can use it far above HPI and getting very close the same quality of what the pig really is. So, we're really excited about what that is. And secondly, we don't really control the prices. Depends on ore prices, and pig prices, and scrap prices, so they have to be market competitive to do that. And to tell you that we're going to be profitable in third quarter at our DRI plants and based on our market really speaks highly of what those two plants have done.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And I would add just one point to that, because you ask specifically about gas pricing. And you remember that with our deals on Canada. And we have some control over there, we have some ability to mitigate the impact of gas price increasing through our own supply in Canada.
Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President:
Not to mention, we have a long-term gas contract in Trinidad.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good point also there. Thank you.
Seth Rosenfeld - Jefferies International Ltd.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Garrett Nelson with BB&T Capital Markets.
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
Have your CapEx or D&A expectations changed at all since last call? And could you also remind us what Nucor's companywide maintenance CapEx is?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
We see that maintenance CapEx is in neighborhood of $350 million. And our outlook for the year remains the same, it's roughly $500 million for the year.
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
Okay. And then on the steel mill's utilization rate, the 83% that you reported for Q2, are you still assuming the same nameplate capacity as you were before? Has that number changed a little bit?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Excellent question. And know that we're again – to get into the nuts and bolts, I'm not going to spend a lot of time giving further the details. But the rough answer to your question is, yes, we do keep that number constant, and that's something that we're evaluating right now as we look at how some others, we put their numbers. And we typically have the same number year-after-year-after-year, so that we can compare ourselves quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter. Others, see the typical mixes or what they anticipate their product mix to be to – for the quarter to generate a denominator, and then of course, their capacity utilization.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
And I would add John, that our numbers are not a nameplate number, they're usually higher than the nameplate number, because at some point in time in history, we've usually gone above the nameplate number. And so, we typically report based on the peak, we could achieve in ideal circumstance with a perfect mix, not based on what the current market mix might be or other factors like that, that can influence the mix.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that's absolutely correct. Frankly, we will be really disappointed if we hadn't generated production was what the nameplate said. Our goal is to exceed that at all times. Now, having said all of that, I will tell you that, the other thing that comes into play here is that, as I mentioned early in one of the other questions, mix is changing dramatically to higher quality, higher profitable products, as a result, they tend to run slower on our mills. So, we are taking a look at evaluating just where we are with that during the next quarter and perhaps resetting those numbers at the end of the year. I don't think – in fact, I'm sure we won't go to one where we'll change it quarter-by-quarter-by-quarter, we just – we don't think that's a fair way to represent our utilization. But we will evaluate where we are today based upon our new product mix that we are running the higher quality, slower running products on our mills.
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
Great. Thanks a lot for those comments.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
John, on the hot-rolled book, you mentioned there's a little bit of pressure there more recently maybe the lead times have come in. If they stay more limited after the summer slowdown, should we expect you guys to maybe pull forward some maintenance to maintain that sort of discipline in the marketplace? Because I know you probably have to take some in the fall anyways. Just trying to think about how you're viewing the situation?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We really only have one schedule right now, I think, for the quarter – it's actually not one that we pulled forward. It's one that we delayed back in June. We were planning to do some work. Ladd, you want to comment on where?
Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President:
Yeah. We were planning doing some work at Crawfordsville, Indiana plant by end of spring, we skipped that. We decided to do a mini four-day outage this quarter. We'll probably still have a regular schedule on some time next late fall or early winter. But that's the only plan that we have right now .
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And to answer your question direct, we aren't anticipating changing of our – any of our maintenance shutdowns to deal with the issue. We don't think it's – we need to do that at this time.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
How long do you think, based on your field buyers, can hold off in terms of wanting to enter this standoff we're hearing about and seeing in the marketplace?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I can't answer that question. That's a question more for the buyers, but what I will point you to is when you take a look at the months on hand numbers, they're extremely low. When you talk about across all sheet products, months on hand is about 2.0, that's extremely low. We suspect that if you break that down, when you look at cold-rolled and galvanized, probably a little bit under that, maybe 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, so hot band might be somewhere around 2.2 or something in that area. All of that said, that's still an extremely low number. Now, certainly buyers are hesitant to buy right now, there's a lot of things going on, but we think that as things settle down, as people start coming back from the vacations and they begin to look at what their plans are to the rest of the year, we expect them to buy – to get back into the game.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
I appreciate all that color. And one of your competitors yesterday talked about some pre-buying in long products in the second quarter with maybe a little hangover effect in 3Q. I didn't seem to see that in your numbers. I think the bar and structural volumes are fairly consistent quarter-on-quarter. Anything that you could comment on there in terms of your business and that sort of comment?
James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President, Bar Products:
Yeah. Phil, this is Jim Darsey. And while there were a little orders advanced in the second quarter, we see demand in the third quarter for merchants being steady, driven primarily by the continued growth in non-residential construction and the 2.7-month service center inventory. So, they are buying. And on the rebar side, demand – even though we have a lot of imports coming into the country, demand is fairly strong driven by construction. So we see rebar demand continuing, see a little price pressure there, and merchant bar just will continue on pretty stable.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And I would add to that Jim, if I could.
James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President, Bar Products:
Yeah.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That the fact that on the rebar, we do see a little bit of challenge there as you mentioned, because of the imports. So we remember that we have a downstream business that consumes about 1.4...
James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President, Bar Products:
Yeah.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
..million tons in terms of our rebar, which puts us in on a really good position in terms of our rebar generation of sales.
James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President, Bar Products:
Yeah, good point, John. Thank you.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Any comments you can make Jim or John on the structural business...
Chad Utermark - Executive Vice President-Beam & Plate Products:
Hey, Phil. This is Chad.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, Chad.
Chad Utermark - Executive Vice President-Beam & Plate Products:
Like Jim – and like Jim said, on the structural side of the business, as we head into the third quarter, demand is relatively flat, and we go in with a decent backlog. So, I would say, it's pretty much steady as we look forward.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And we are excited to begin to introduce our new products, our new – our piling sections will be coming out in the second half. The two remaining piling sections will be coming out during the second half of the year. And we are really excited to be able – to be introducing our QST product in the near future. That's going to be a big plus for our structural mills.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks everyone for the thoughts. Appreciate it.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Hi, John. How are you?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, Aldo. Thank you. How are you?
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Good, thanks. So, I wanted to ask a couple of questions. One, on the scrap business, and then on a couple of your growth initiatives. On the scrap side, since you have much more of a brokerage distribution setup, rather than shredding domestically and things like that, I'm wondering, does that give you an advantage to buy foreign scrap that other domestic scrap players might not be able to take advantage of...
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
Hi, Aldo. This is Joe Stratman.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Yeah.
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
We certainly see it as an advantage. We do have an international reach through our brokerage team, our DJJ brokerage team. And we can bring scrap in from virtually all over the world, and we can bring scrap substitutes in from virtually all over the world. The advantage clearly is it provides us a great deal of flexibility to use all the resources across the globe to get the most cost-effective source of a raw material to, at times, that will be domestic scrap, at times, it will be international scrap substitutes. So, we certainly believe it's an advantage, and we certainly use it to our best advantage.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And not just on iron, that's right, we also do it on...
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
Yeah, we do the same thing, again, through the DJJ team, in cooperation with our steel mills. We do that also on ferro-alloys.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And that's what we're looking for. And bear in mind that in addition to processing and brokerage D.J. Joseph also has other businesses that serve us well. And their railcar businesses, I think, plus for us, that gives us some advantages. And I've always said this, and I still believe that D.J. Joseph is not just a scrap company, and a brokerage company, and a rail company, more important than anything for us, it's an information company. And they do a great job of extracting the price of iron units and alloys worldwide and helping us to understand what's going on in other countries in terms of consumption of product by the amount of fine units that are being consumed, alloys that are being consumed. So, it's a great information company that serve us extremely well
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
John, I think I'd add one other thing to that. One other advantage that compliments that is a large percentage of our steel mills have deep water access, so not only do we have the brokerage arm that can buy it, but we have a efficient way logistically to get into our facilities.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That's great...
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Yeah. So, two other little questions, John, on the investment you made, the JFE joint venture in Mexico. Could you say why it's Central Mexico rather than Northern, and where would the substrate come from?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Certainly, I can tell you why Central America – I said, Central Mexico, excuse me, that's because that's where the customers are. We put the plant where the customers are. When you look at where the quality automotive companies are locating their production facilities, it's right in that same area, around León and surrounding communities. So, we're placing this – we haven't decided exactly which town to put it in, but we're placing it in a location that's frankly surrounded by new automotive company – new automotive production that's coming in, around there. In terms of the substrate, about 50% of the substrate or 200,000 tons will be coming from Nucor, and 200,000 tons will be coming from JFE.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Great. And then, one final one, John. On the little plating that you bought in Texas, $29 million of nice price. I'm wondering, do you have to spend any significant capital to get that running the way you want to?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me say, I don't refer to it as a little plate company in Texas. Let me say, great plate company in Texas. And I'm very glad that you asked this question, because I want to take just a minute and to welcome all of our new teammates from Longview, Texas into the Nucor family. So, and then you who are listening to the call today, we're excited to have you onboard. Welcome. I want to tell you, I was at that facility yesterday to – frankly, to welcome everyone into the company, and to hover around and walked around that facility, that's a great – it's a great facility. We've had it at a very good price, okay, a very fair price. And if you work it out, it's about $161 a ton for a plate mill, and that's pretty good price.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Why do we – why are we doing this? Well, there's a lot of good reasons, number one, and Chad, you can jump in if I miss any here – but number one, just from a sizing perspective, it really fills a void that we've had in our portfolio. We want to be able to offer our customers a full range of plate products. And currently today, we go up to, I think, I'm going to get right, correct me, if I'm not, three inches in thickness and 128 inches in width. And with the facility Longview – we call Longview , okay, we'll be able to go up to 12 inches. And I believe it's 138 inches in width. And beyond that, because they utilize what's known as a bottom chord ingot process, okay, you get extremely clean steels that allow us to sell into many, many high-quality, high-margin applications
Chad Utermark - Executive Vice President-Beam & Plate Products:
This is Chad Utermark. Just to add on to what John said about the specialty products that this mill is capable of making into these valuable niche markets – more value-added markets that we want to penetrate. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention our current North American commercial footprint that we already have in place and this great relationship we have with plate customers all across the United States, we're going to be able to bring this product to market very quickly. And like John said, I'm excited to have this asset, but more importantly, the team that's down there, what a great group of men and women, and we're excited about moving forward.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And you asked about capital. Frankly, there'll be some capital that we'll put in there – it'll be minus, as we get to know more about business. And we see new applications, we might be adding something down the road. But when I look beyond any major influx, they've got a good facility, they run it well, and we don't see major capital going into it. It's certainly doesn't require.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you, John. Thanks. Congratulations on a good purchase.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Alessandro Abate with Berenberg.
Alessandro Abate - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom):
Good afternoon, gentlemen. I have just one question, which is related to the one that my colleague just asked, related to the acquisition of the heavy plates from Joy Global. How does it fit into your portfolio, if you can actually give us a recap of the heat treating capacity that you have within your mills, and what this acquisition may mean in the middle of – because, clearly, in the U.S. the plate market is the one that's suffering the most of the capacity and weakness in the line segment. In this respect, do you see any kind of potential consolidation among the plates division of your competitors. Thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we can't comment on what our competitors are going to do, but I'll be happy to comment on your question about how does that fit in with our organization. Well, we talked a little bit about it in terms of just – in top of markets and more challenging markets, what you want to have is additional products that fit into niche markets. And that's exactly what we're buying here, or we have here. As we mentioned, several of the applications, these are really high-quality specialized application. We're talking about brackets that go on the airplanes for the landing gears. That's kind of important. And I want to just fill a little bit more on what Chad said also that, look, we're going to have tremendous commercial leverage here. We sell nationwide. We've got a great commercial team out there selling plate. It wasn't the focus of Joy Global, so they didn't have the same focus on selling it outside their internal needs, and we do. So, we're going to be taking the commercial leverage for a whole another level. And just one final point that I would make in that decision, it might be weak right now, and well, frankly, it's not that weak, okay. But, we do all the – those investments that we make up for the long-term profitable growth of our company, and we wanted to be sustainable. And, we believe that the best way to do that is to continue to grow our diversity, continue to grow our market leadership position in the markets in which we participate and this fills those builds perfectly.
Alessandro Abate - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom):
Thank you. Just – if I may, just a quick follow-up. Can you just remind me how much you have in terms of heat treatment capacity and the quench and temper plates for the mining industry.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well. We would – we can't, I don't know the number for exactly – given the new acquisition – without the new acquisition.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Without the new acquisition, it's 240,000 tons.
Alessandro Abate - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom):
Okay. Thank you very much. And congratulations on the purchase. It's really a great deal. Thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our final question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Hello, good afternoon. A couple of DRI-related questions, as usual. First, if you were to take a step back and look at the Louisiana DRI project from a big picture perspective, how did your outlook changed over the last year regarding what benefits it might ultimately provide in sort of a mid-cycle environment? It seems like we have come a long way from when it was nearly idle after some maintenance last year.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I will start, and Ladd you can jump in here. Clearly, when we started up, as we do it with many new facilities, there's a learning curve. There tends to be some challenges on equipment, there were, in this case. Actually that had nothing to do with the technology. We still have a great deal of confidence in the technology. This was an exemplary piece of equipment. And we even saw the issues, I guess, here. So, we got – we worked our way through the equipment issues. And now, I would say, that it's fitting into our strategy exactly the way that we anticipated it fitting into. It increases the flexibility of our raw material strategy. Remember that – and I know, you all probably know this, but remember that when you look at iron units, it represents about 60% of our total cost of production, that's a huge portion of our total cost of production. So, the more flexible we are, the bigger the basket of choices we have to use when we select the lowest cost mix to put into our furnaces. It gives us a tremendous cost advantage to our competition. And we still feel very strong, and this was a great long-term investment. I'll remind everyone once again that we did build Louisiana with the infrastructure to support a second facility. And I'm convinced that long term, okay, as we continue to see prime scrap become more difficult to obtain and degrade in terms of the quality of the – a prime scrap that's available for our furnaces. And as we continue to move further and further up into the high quality products, where we need more and more virgin or very pure iron units, I'll tell you what, we're going to be very glad that we have this, and we're finally going to be looking to add some more.
Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President:
Maybe just one comment to that, John. And although we're very excited to see the divisions profitable, sometimes, I think we lose sight of the fact what it does for our steel mills, as far as moderate their costs and allow them, as John has talked about, be significantly more flexible than they've ever been before. So, it's not just a benefit to the DRI plants, it's a huge, huge benefit across our consumer mills.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Great. And...
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
And Andrew, I'll add one more comment, if I could, this is Joe Stratman. Your question really said it right? How does it look mid-cycle, which is we're entering more of a mid-cycle, where the prime scrap – the cut scrap spread is starting to get back to historical norms. And as John said, the quantity and quality of prime scrap in the United states will continue to deteriorate. That mid-cycle comment of yours is spot on, that we're starting to hit the sweet spot of the value of what that DRI plant could do for us.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And as we go from mid-cycle to long cycle you can get better, so...
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President, Business Development:
Amen. All right.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you for your question.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Could you update us on the current utilization rates, at both Trinidad and Louisiana as well?
Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President:
This is Ladd, we're full.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay. And then...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Still running for both facility.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
And then maybe I missed it earlier, but just finally, could you remind us on your 2016 CapEx guidance please?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
It's $500 million.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
This concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Ferriola, I'd like to turn the conference back over to you for additional and closing remarks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you. Let me conclude by saying as I always do, thank you to our customers. We really appreciate your business. Thank you to our shareholders, we appreciate your ongoing confidence and your support. And I want to say thank you to my Nucor teammates for creating customer value, generating attractive shareholder returns and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly, thank you, all, for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP David A. Sumoski - Executive Vice President-Engineered Bar Products, Nucor Corp. R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc. Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation first quarter of 2016 earnings call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call, only speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. We appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Thanks John. First quarter 2016 earnings of $0.22 per diluted share were within our guidance range of $0.20 to $0.25 per diluted share. First quarter results included a LIFO charge of $27.5 million or about $0.02 per share higher than projected in our guidance. Excluding the impact of LIFO inventory accounting, the first quarter's performance represented an improvement over the fourth quarter of 2015's adjusted net earnings of $0.45 per diluted share, which included a LIFO credit of $0.41 per share. Market conditions remain challenging during the first quarter but are now improving. Reflecting the impact of the 2014 to 2015 import surge, average steel mill prices and metal margins declined in the first quarter from already weak fourth quarter levels. However, imports have begun to subside, and steel mill pricing and metal margins improved notably by the end of the quarter. As the market bottomed, our team again capitalized on the opportunities provided by such core Nucor strengths as our highly flexible production capabilities and our unrivaled product diversity. Here are three examples. First, Nucor's Sheet Mill Group took advantage of competitor supply curtailments and lower imports to increase first quarter of 2016 shipments 25% over a year ago of first quarter shipments and 32% over fourth quarter of 2015 shipments. Second, Nucor's downstream steel products business achieved year-over-year growth in quarterly profitability as non-residential construction activity continued on its path of gradual improvement. These profitable channels to market also significantly enhanced the performance of our steelmaking business. Third, Nucor's Structural Steel group increased its first quarter shipments volume 15% over the prior-year quarter and 11% over the fourth quarter of 2015. Our teams at Nucor-Yamato, Nucor Steel Berkeley, and Skyline Steel together drove this growth. As the market leader in structural steel, Nucor derives drives great value from being the low-cost producer and offering North America's broadest product portfolio of beams and tiling. A quick comment about our first quarter 2016 tax rate, as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 34.4% for the first quarter. Nucor's financial position remains strong. We are the only North American steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. Our gross debt to capital ratio was 36% at the close of the first quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled more than $2.3 billion, a $300 million increase from the end of 2015. This compares with total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion. Our next significant debt maturities are $600 million in notes due in December 2017 and $500 million in notes due in June of 2018. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The maturity for our revolving credit facility was recently extended to April of 2021. For 2016, we estimate capital spending of approximately $500 million. Depreciation and amortization for 2016 is expected to total about $700 million. Our capital spending budget for this year, includes a number of attractive growth projects. You will note the objective of these projects is to expand our portfolio to higher value-added applications, while maintaining our position as the market leader in more commodity products. Examples are
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor's strategy for profitable growth is simple, flexible, and focused. Nucor capitalizes on its unrivaled position of strength to gain profitable market share in our core businesses of steel and steel products. We are doing this by taking care of our customers, with our unrelenting focus on providing products and services that our competitors simply can't match. Delivering an unmatched value proposition to our customers and getting paid for that value is how we will earn attractive returns on the valuable capital our shareholders have entrusted to the Nucor team. Anchoring the strategy and its execution is Nucor's business model. Its strength and adaptability is powered by these building blocks that include our culture, our robust balance sheet and cash flow generation through the cycle, our low and highly variable cost structure, our flexible and reliable production capabilities, our product diversity and vertical integration, and our leadership positions in most of the markets we serve. Put together, these competitive strengths provide Nucor with a powerful platform of creating value for our customers. Our teammates have done and continue to do excellent work implementing our multi-pronged strategy for profitable growth. They are doing it by executing on what we call Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth. Through the industry downturn that began in 2009 and continued into 2016, Nucor has invested more than $6 billion in these five drivers that increase our capacity to create and deliver value to our customers. Here are the five drivers to delivering value to our customers and profitable growth to our shareholders
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question will come from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey. Good afternoon, guys.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon, Evan, how are you?
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Doing well. Doing well. So, my first question is on the sheet business. It looks like you posted record shipments number in sheet. And I guess between Gallatin and all the upgrades at Berkeley, I don't really know how high you could go there. I mean, what's the upside on the sheet market for Nucor? What sort of operating rate where the sheet mill is running? If you can give me that number, that would be great.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
The utilization rate overall for our company was about – in the steel business, about 74%, and in our sheet group particular, we were operating at about 81%, 82%.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, thank you. And so, you expect to see a pick-up I guess in volumes and pricing as we move into the next couple of quarters, given that seems there's more gas you can put into the mills?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. We definitely anticipate seeing an increase in both volume and in pricing as we go into the second quarter. Frankly, when you look at our sheet number that we gave you, clearly, there was a stronger utilization rate in our value-added cold-rolled and galvanized products. And that's really a function of what the market was looking for in the first quarter. Clearly, the demand was greater for cold-rolled and galvanized. So, when you look at the hot band side of our business, we have quite a bit more gas in our tank, so to speak, and we expect that that market to improve significantly as we go into the second quarter. Some of the reasons behind that, clearly, in first quarter and at the end of last year, hot band was the sheet product most impacted by illegally-traded imports and we believe that we're seeing a significant change in that, as the cases are moving forward and people are getting confidence that our administration, our elected officials are going to be enforcing our laws more rigorously. So, we anticipate a pick-up in volume and in pricing in our hot band and, as I said earlier, of the three products galvanized, furlough, and hot band, we've got the most room to expand our hot-band products.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
All right. Thanks for all the color. My second question is just on trade. Thanks for the detail in your prepared remarks. I did want to dig in a little bit more. There's been a lot of news flow recently as far as USTR, DOC, OECD, a lot of different organizations getting together and talking about taking action on global oversupply in the steel industry. And a couple things that have come up, I guess one in the U.S. has been Section 201, recently Section 232, and I just wanted to get a sense on how – are those two of the actions that are being discussed and are those two avenues that you see is a potential to do more of a blanket tariff on steel coming in?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
What I can tell you, let me start by answering your direct question
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay, thanks. I'll turn it over.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question will come from Garrett Nelson of BB&T Capital Markets.
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
Hi, thank you. It looks like you pulled back a bit on your share repurchases in Q1 from the amount of stock that you bought back in the fourth quarter. Have your thoughts regarding capital allocation and returning cash to shareholders shifted at all? And by that, I mean are you perhaps considering special dividends in lieu of buybacks in light of the recent share price appreciation?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me jump in and start by saying, as you heard during the prepared remarks, our priorities for our cash have not changed at all. First priority, as always, has been investment for long-term sustainable profitable growth; looking at optimizing our existing operations, where we always get our biggest bang for our buck; acquisitions where they make the most sense and where they're not overpriced and if they in fact fit within our five tenets of profitable growth; and greenfield expansions also a possibility. And of course, in a world filled with overcapacity, I have to add to that and say we would only do that in cases where we found very specific niche markets or niche geographical locations where we're not represented well. The second priority is to provide our shareholders with dividends consistent with our success in delivering long-term results. And the third priority would be to opportunistically repurchase our shares when the price is good to do so. In the repurchasing program we mentioned earlier, we had a strike price that we thought was the right number and we bought when we were under that strike price and we stopped when it went over. Now clearly, when we look at where our stock is today, we probably could have been a little bit more aggressive in the buyback. It was impossible to know that at that time. Does that answer your question?
Garrett Scott Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets:
It does. Thanks a lot, John.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, John, Jim.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. Phil, how are you?
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Doing well. How are you?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Pretty good.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Good. I had a question on the automotive joint venture in Mexico potential with a partner. I'm wanting to just know how you're thinking about that evolution still and getting more into automotive and whether or not, if and when that takes place, you get into more exposed applications or whether or not you stay on the unexposed side. And then also, would you have more interest in other ventures in the future?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm going to answer that question in very general terms. I'm not going to address any potential JVs or anything like that. But I will speak to our interest in automotive and our continuing interest in moving up the value chain in automotive. Automotive has been great for us over the last three to five years. We continue to grow our presence there. Our products are being extremely well received by the automotive producers, both the domestic and the new domestics, frankly here and in Mexico. So we will continue to take a more active role in automotive. We will continue to move up the value chain. We have some interest in exposed, but it's not a focal point for us. We think that where we have to we can produce it and we will produce it, but it's not an area that we will put the majority of our efforts. We focus on body light, advanced high-strength steels that go into those products, into those areas. Now when the right opportunities come along for any specialized galvanizing facilities, we'll take a good hard look at them. And if we think that it continues to build upon our ability to grow in that market, we'll take them. I can tell you that Nucor as a whole as well as our products are being well received in the automotive market. Think about the fact that companies in the past, and I apologize if I'm repeating myself, but it's important to think about. When steel is specified for a product that's coming out to a platform, you specify the steel for a platform that's not even going to be stocked and going into production for two to three years. You want to make sure that when you're ready to go into production, the steel, and you specify it for that line, is still around. So the automotive companies are looking hard and making sure that they have reliable suppliers, sustainable suppliers, financially strong suppliers. You can just check the boxes on that when you consider Nucor. So our company and our products are being very well received in the marketplace, and we anticipate continuing to grow in automotive. If you look at just what we've done in Q1, our automotive volume was up about 20% compared to where we were in 2015, and we anticipate it to continue to grow.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
And, John, that's the fourth quarter of 2015.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
You're saying up 20% versus last quarter.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, Q4 of 2015.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Terrific. And then, if I could ask just a follow-up here on SBQ. Anything different there in terms of the change in landscape? You have a handful of suppliers that are more cash or liquidity constrained right now, and you've got some other players down in terms of rounds production. Have you been able to take advantage of that, I guess, is sub part one. And then two, what are you seeing in the SBQ markets overall in your expectations for the remainder of the year? Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, for the first part of your question, I'll begin and maybe I'll turn it over to Jim Darsey or to Dave Sumoski to fill in on what they see for rest of the year. But you're right, a lot of our competitors are challenged. And as a result of that, there have been some divestitures that they've made that we've been able to pick up on, that have improved our ability to move further down the line, albeit they've been small, but we continue to look for those incremental opportunities to grow our business and move further downstream, Dave, what do you think about SBQ for the rest of the year?
David A. Sumoski - Executive Vice President-Engineered Bar Products, Nucor Corp.:
On the idling side of facilities, we've seen a fair amount of facilities idle that produce SBQ and we have taken advantage of that this year and last year. We've gotten qualified on a number of different parts and our quality has been well-accepted into the auto market.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I think that it's important to note that although that market – as you look at last year versus going into this year, that market has been relatively flat. But yes, we've been able to pick up our market – improve our market share in that market even though it's been relatively flat over the last 12 to 14 months.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, John, and I appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Let me ask this on the demand side. With the rapid rebound of sheet pricing we've seen this past month, it seems like all of the credit's being placed on the supply side with lower inventories, reduced import availability. I'm just asking if there are any regions or products or group of buyers where you've actually been surprised of the upside on the demand level. And as a follow-up to that, we've been hearing a lot on the same split in the end market demand for a long time. Auto is very good; machinery and energy are very bad. Has there any sign you're seeing that these weak markets could be bottoming out, and what's your view on how long it might take to, let's say, oil returns to $60 before energy related buyers start calling again. Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, let me start by saying that there hasn't been much change in the demand market, although we see some areas where we're beginning to see incremental improvement. Obviously, you mentioned automotive being strong; you mentioned the ones that were challenged. But I would suggest that one that we see to continually improve albeit a very slow – albeit at a very slow level is non-residential construction. And clearly, a lot of steel products go into non-residential construction. I also want to make a comment about your question on the oil side. It's clear that we really, particularly Nucor, took – being heavy into hot band took a big hit when the oil market collapsed and the demand for steel into that market collapsed. That said, we really haven't seen any pick-up in it. Now, we recognize that until oil pricing goes go back up into the $60, $70 range, you won't see the kind of drilling that took place in the past. Yeah, people say, well, maybe they'll be drilling at about 50% of the level where it is today for a long period of time. But even with drilling at 50% level it's at today, we haven't seen the pick-up in the steel demand go into the fee, that 50% of the market like we have in the past. So, we anticipate seeing that pick-up some time maybe in the middle of this year towards the end of the year as the steel in the inventory chain begins to use that. And that statement can also be held for when you look at our service center inventories. When you look at – across the board, in almost all of our steel products, service center inventory levels are down. Apparent demand at the service center level is up slightly. So, we see their shipments going up, but inventories coming down. That's good news. So, those are some of the areas that I would share with you.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
I appreciate it, that's helpful. Let me ask then – excuse me, let me ask by asking a question on the other side of the world. There's been a lot in the news, a lot of political commentary around the Chinese and their promise to restrict their capacity at least by 100 million – 150 million tons, several areas down the line. Do you believe – I think it's really different this time. Do you think there's much credibility there? Do you take any comfort at all that there's – they're at least talking about making the kind of changes that we and other countries have been asking for?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm going to really be careful with my comments here. But I'd just say, there's an old saying, seeing is believing, and that's my comment. That's my answer to whether or not the Chinese will take the action that they had promised. Now, having said that, I'm going to repeat what I said earlier, because I really believe this is the case. When you look at what took place at the OECD – I was not there personally, but our team was there. And what they reported back to me was an absolute growing level of frustration on the part of the American government and the rest of the governments around the world. Even the more traditional Asian governments intend to be a little bit quieter about being critical that China spoke up in terms of – listen, this is a problem that has to be addressed. If China could go out and say the only reason there's overcapacity in the world is because of the demand drop-off as a result of the economic turn down, it's a ridiculous statement. So at the end of the day, clearly I think that whether or not the Chinese choose to put out anything on their own air, okay, it would be the government – the rest of the governments around the world would take action for them, okay?
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it, skillfully said, John. Thanks very much.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Jorge Beristain of Deutsche Bank.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, good afternoon guys. I just had a question in terms of some color on your raw material segment. We again saw some negative results coming out of your DRI facilities. I was just wondering if you could just talk to – is the wind kind of turning in your favor now, with what we're seeing globally with iron ore prices and the impact on DRI? But secondly, what is leading to sort of the near-term weak operating results there? And could you comment if operationally everything is now sort of on the demand there?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let's start with the operational side, because there really is good news to report there. Louisiana facility is running very well. The cost of that facility continue to come down. Frankly, the cost at our facility in Louisiana today rival those in Trinidad, which as you know, are world-class. Quality continues to be excellent, coming out of Louisiana. And it continues to be great coming out of Trinidad also. In terms of whether or not the winds are changing, the answer to that is clearly, yes. Not only you referred to the iron ore price increase, but take a look at what's happening with scrap. In the last 60 days, the price of scrap has gone up maybe $70 a ton, $80 a ton. And pig iron pricing over the last two months has gone up about $100 a ton. When you look at those two factors and the impact that, that has on profitability of our – specifically our DRI operations, definitely, the wind is changing direction, and we anticipate much better results going forward. The last point I would make is remember that the economic impact of the – of our raw material group channel, particularly our DRI facilities, impacts our entire company, not just that one particular group. So, when you look at the benefit that we see from that across the steel mills and our ability to optimize our scrap mix, there's a great economic impact across the company as well as that offsets some of the impact of our DRI facilities in the raw material group. When we look at DRI, because of the way that the pricing goes, that we deliver it to our mills, we'll see a smaller improvement in Q2, with the majority of the improvement coming in Q3, because basically, there's a 60-day to 90-day lag in the increase in pricing that we see at our mills because we transferred the DRI to our mills at the time and at the price where the pig iron is delivered to those operations. So there's about a 60-day to 90-day lag in that. So you won't see this – the changing winds have a major impact in Q2 but we will see some, but you'll see a major impact in Q3.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. But just to re-clarify, operationally, things are smooth there. It's simply the weak results that we saw in 4Q – sorry in 1Q were just a function of lower pricing.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, very well said. Operationally, we could not be more pleased with the job our team is doing in Louisiana. The quality remains stellar. And as I've said earlier, they've driven the costs down to where they rival our Trinidad operation, which has always been known as world-class both in terms of cost and quality.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. And if I could just have a second follow-up, on scrap pricing, obviously we've seen the strong year-to-date gains. How do you see scrap pricing evolving into May and for the second half of the year? And could you be seeing a catch-up play in scrap by the time when steel pricing power levels off?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Joe, what do you think?
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President:
That's a great question, Jorge. As you said, we have seen scrap demand increase over the last couple months. And quite frankly, that is steel mill demand-driven, especially demand from our EAF mill customers like Nucor, but others. And this demand increase has certainly pulled the price up, as John said, about $70 over the last 60 to 90 days. But this in turn has increased the flow of unprocessed scrap into the yards. As you know very well, scrap is an elastic commodity. So this price increase is starting to improve volumes. So we've seen a significant volume improvement into our scrap yards. So with the supply side improving along with the global reach we have on pig iron, the great performance John just talked about, about our DRI plants in terms of the volumes, the capacity utilization there, we really think that raw material prices, scrap prices are going to flatten out here in the second quarter – flatten out over the next 30 to 60 days. And so that's kind of what we think. I will also say that the big drop here – I think there was a little catch-up going on. Most steel mills in the country were running at pretty low capacity utilizations in the fourth quarter. They had left their inventories drift down a little bit. So what we've seen here in the first quarter is a response to improved steel mill demand orders but also a little catching up and rebuilding of inventories. So as that levels out here in the second quarter, we're going to see scrap prices returning to flat levels.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Perfect, thanks very much.
Operator:
And our next question will come from Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, good afternoon, guys.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. How are you?
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Doing great, thank you. Question on the flat roll capacity, I think, that we started out the call with. I wanted to just dig down a little bit. If you look at your annualized run rate, it would be under 10 million tons. But as of your last presentation, you said capacity was 13 million tons. So I know you said you could ramp up, but is that 13 million tons like a true amount that Nucor could produce on an annualized basis?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me answer this. I'm trying to understand exactly what your question is.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
It's the last presentation that you guys had on your – on page 13, it says your sheet capacity annually is 13.1 million tons. So if you look at – so I'm just wondering if that – is that a true – can you really produce that amount, or is that a number that implies – that incorporates maybe – or doesn't incorporate some outages or whatnot. I'm just wondering if Nucor would be able to run at a 3 million ton increase annualized from a $0.03 run rate?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We would be able to run at that level. Now we report – that number that you're hearing there is a melt rate. That's our ability to melt steel, about 12 million to 13 million tons. And then when you look at the total amount that we can produce, it always gets a little bit flexible, Timna, because it really depends a lot on mix. You have to take a hard look at what we're running. And as we drift into the higher-quality products, particularly advanced high-strength steels that have advanced high strength, they're harder to run. They have to run at a slower rate. Particularly, when you look at what we've done in our Berkeley facility by going to the wide and lighter facility, that has an adverse impact on the overall capacity. So it really depends, that's why I'm a little hesitant to give a specific number because it really depends on the mix that we're running at any given time. How wide is the product? How light is the product? What is the grade of the product? How hard is the product? What's the strength ratio of the product? All of those are factors. So what we typically do is we talk in terms of – if you want a single number, we talk in terms of what we melt and cast, which is in the neighborhood of 12 million to 13 million tons in our steel mills. The actual product or the capacity of the product coming off of the roller mills, the roller lines, the hot mills will be a function of what is the mix of the product that we're running on that mill at that given time.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, I understand. Let me ask a little bit of a looking-forward question on the same idea. So as you pointed out, fewer imports coming in, pretty substantially fewer imports. You've got several integrated mills that don't seem to be restarting capacity. That's another 5 million tons offline. Nucor has, it sounds like, some spare capacity. But you also have this massive cash hoard that we've talked about for a while. Do you think about ways to expand your ability to produce flat rolled? Do you think about the different options out there in the market, more casted perhaps, taking advantage of some melt on the long product side that's not fully utilized, the ATI rolling mill? Like how much of an opportunity do you see there? And is that a priority for you?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Timna, let me answer it this way by starting to say the entire team thinks constantly day and night, weekends, seven days a week, 24 hours a day about how to best invest the cash that we have to enhance our long-term earnings power for our shareholders. Now, clearly, sheet is one. One other thing that's great about our company is that we have such a diversified portfolio, there are so many opportunities across the board to invest, to increase – to profitably grow our company. But you asked specifically about sheet. What would we be looking at in sheet? What we'd look at is not more of the same, but look for opportunities, whether they're organic or through acquisitions to improve our position in some key markets, to move up the value chain, and maybe some further value-added capacity to our portfolio. But at the end of the day, wherever we end up investing it, what I can tell you is that we'll invest it very well and get the best return. And I think that we have evidence that can prove we've known that over the last 10 years – when you look at our return on invested capital over the last 5-year period, 10-year period. We set the pace to the industry. So, I don't want to get cornered into just any one particular area to invest. In terms of sheet products, we would be very reluctant to just add more of the same as we invest in sheet. We look to move further up the value chain, look further down, the further processed area. Maybe it's more cold-rolled, galvanized painting. Those would all be possibilities. Does that answer your question?
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yes, sir. I just think, with the low utilization for long products, I wondered, if there was a way to take advantage of some of that melt capacity, if that's something you've considered, specifically?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, there is. And I know exactly what you're thinking about. Clearly, in the past, we've had discussions about caster and where that could be applied. And as you know that we've just sold the license to Mexico – through a company in Mexico, who is a long product producer, who had extra melt, and that's exactly what they're doing. So, that is a possibility.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
All right, t Thank you.
Operator:
And it does appear we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn the conference back over to Mr. Ferriola for any additional or closing comments.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, let me sign off by saying thank you to our customers. We really appreciate your business. We know that without you, there would be no us, so thank you for your business. I want to say thank you to the shareholders for our – that we really appreciate your ongoing confidence and your support. And finally, I want to say thank you to our Nucor teammates for everything that you do for Nucor every day. And most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
That does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you all for your participation.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO & President Jim Frias - CFO Ray Napolitan - VP Joe Stratman - VP
Analysts:
Tony Rizzuto - Cowen & Co Matt Murphy - UBS Chris Olin - Rosenblatt Securities Chris Terry - Deutsche Bank Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Phil Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Andrew Lane - Morningstar Brian Yu - Citigroup Garrett Nelson - BB&T Capital Markets Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie David Lipschitz - CLSA
Operator:
Welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth quarter and Year-End 2015 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our Conference Call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's Senior Management Team. Chief Financial Officer, Jim Frias and our other Executive Vice Presidents Jim Darsey, Ladd Hall, Ray Napolitan, Joe Stratman, Dave Sumoski, and Chad Utermark. Your leadership team in Charlotte would like to thank everyone on our Nucor Harris deal, David J Joseph, Duferdofin, Nucor Steel Technologies and skyline steel teams for your hard work every day to build a safer, stronger and more profitable Nucor and extremely turbulent global steel industry conditions we are taking advantage of Nucor's unrivalled competitive position and highly flexible business model to grow our companies long term earnings power while many of our competitors are fighting to survive, this protracted downturn more than 23,000 teammates are positioning Nucor to continue to thrive in the years ahead. Jim Frias, will now renew Nucor's fourth quarter performance and financial position. Following his comments, I will update you on the execution of our strategy for long term profitable growth. Jim?
Jim Frias:
Thanks, John. Fourth quarter of 2015 adjusted earnings of $0.46 per diluted share excluding impairment charges of $237 million exceeded our guidance range of $0.15 to $0.20 per diluted share. Fourth quarter results included a LIFO credit of $218 million, somewhat higher than the $181 million LIFO credit projected in our guidance. The larger than expected LIFO credit increased our earnings for the quarter by approximately $0.07 per diluted share. The biggest factor driving our fourth quarter outperformance was stronger than forecast results for the month of December at our steel mills particularly the sheet mills and our downstream product segments. Nucor continues to benefit from effective execution of our channel to market strategy and our ongoing investments to expand our offerings of value-added products. At the same time, all of our Nucor teams continue their unrelenting focus on maintaining our position as the low cost producer across our extremely diverse product portfolio. During the fourth quarter of 2015, we recorded two non-cash impairment charges totaling $237 million, a $153 million charge reduced the value of our equity method investment in the Duferdofin - Nucor steel making joint venture in Italy. In addition an $84 million charge was taken to write-off the entire amount of certain assets primarily engineering planes and equipment related to a potential blast furnace project at our St. James Parrish Louisiana site. Due to technology advances and other factors we no longer expect to use those plans if we proceed with the blast furnace project. Including these impairment charges, Nucor's consolidated net loss for the quarter was $62 million or $0.19 per diluted share. Our deferred at the Nucor impairment charge reflects the ongoing financial performance and deterioration in near term projections for this business. The 50% ownership in Duferdofin - Nucor was acquired in July 2008 for approximately $667 million. Although market conditions in Europe remain extremely weak, we are very pleased with the dedication and hard work of our approximately 700 teammates at Duferdofin - Nucor. They have achieved very significant improvements in costs and product mix. As one example, conversion costs at our [indiscernible] melt shop have reached world class levels. Duferdofin - Nucor is also successfully expanding its portfolio to include value-added and more import resistant products such as engineered varieties [ph] blooms and billets as well as special profiles. Across the entire organization, our Duferdofin - Nucor teammates have embraced and taken ownership of a culture focused on safety, environmental stewardship and production efficiency. All of these initiatives are focused on achieving consistent profitability for the joint venture in the near future. A quick comment about our fourth quarter of 2015 tax rate as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests and the impairment charges. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners and the two non-cash charges, the effective tax rate was approximately 31% for the fourth quarter. Nucor continues to generate very robust operating cash flow in extremely challenging steel market conditions. With our highly variable and low cost structure, we benefit from significant reductions in working capital during downturns. 2015 cash provided by operations was approximately $2.2 billion, a dramatic increase from 2014s operating cash flow of about $1.3 billion. It also represents our strongest cash flow performance since 2008's record level of $2.5 billion. Over this prolonged steel industry downturn that began in 2009, Nucor's annual operating cash flow generation has averaged approximately $1.3 billion. That compares with average annual operating cash flow of $500 million to the previous cyclical downturn from 2001 to 2003. 2015 capital expenditures were $365 million. For 2016, we estimate capital spending of approximately $500 million. Depreciation and amortization for 2016 is expected to total about $700 million. Most of our recent larger scale organic growth projects have been completed or are nearing completion. Nucor's financial strength allows us to invest in capital projects and strategic acquisitions during severe industry downturns when the long term returns are most attractive. Through the downturn that began in 2009 and continued with a vengeance in 2015, Nucor has invested more than $6 billion to grow our long term earnings power that includes capital expenditures of approximately $4.4 billion and acquisitions totaling about $1.9 billion. Rather than fighting for survival, the Nucor team is executing our strategic plan for driving profitable growth and delivering attractive returns to our shareholders. Nucor's disciplined and balanced approach to capital allocation also allows us to reward shareholders with attractive cash returns on their investment. Over the 10 year period ending in 2015, Nucor has returned a total of approximately $6.8 billion of their capital to our shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. With the dividend increase announced in December and effective with next year's quarterly payment, Nucor has increased its base dividend for 43 consecutive years, every year, since it first began paying dividends in 1973. Reflecting our success in growing long term earnings power, the base dividend has increased fivefold over the past 10 years. In December, we began repurchasing shares of our common stock under the $900 million program approved our Board in September. Our repurchases totaled about 1.7 million shares at an average cost of just under $40 per share. Nucor's financial position remains strong. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 36% at the close of the fourth quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $2 billion which compares with total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion. Our next significant debt maturity is not until December 2017. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility which remains undrawn, the facility does not mature until August of 2018. Nucor is the only North American headquartered steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. Market conditions for our stainless segment remain extremely challenging as a result of global overcapacity and import levels that remain at extremely high levels; however, we anticipate some improvement in the steel mill segment in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the fourth quarter 2015 due to a lower average cost of inventory to begin the first quarter, a small decline in imports and more balanced inventor levels at service center customers. The performance of our downstream steel product segment will be lower due to typical winter seasonality. We expect downstream products for the full year of 2016 to achieve notably improved performance compared to 2015. Performance in the raw material segment should increase slightly over the fourth quart level as Nucor Steel Louisiana resumed production earlier this week following its extended fourth quarter maintenance outage. Margins are expected to improve modestly in our scrap recycling business. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages and highly adaptable business model will allow our team to continue to execute our proven strategies for delivering profitable long term growth and attractive returns to Nucor shareholders. We appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. I am proud of the results achieved by our teammates and one of the toughest steel markets in decades. Because of their work, Nucor is growing stronger and actually thriving compared to our peers. First, I will comment on the overall industry issues we face today. It is not an exaggeration to say that the global steel industry is in a crisis. The crisis is the direct result of foreign governments particularly China blatantly subsidizing their steel industries. In further violation of international trade rules, this glut of global steel production has led to the dumping of steel products into the U.S. market. Despite the highest level of domestic steel consumption since 2006, the American steel industry capacity utilization in 2015 was around 70% and pricing for most steel products essentially collapsed. Nucor's culture has always been defined by our willingness to tackle challenges head on and focus our energy on what is within our control. To that end, Nucor continues to be proactive and aggressive in pursuing trade cases whenever and wherever it is appropriate. When foreign producers and governments break mutually agreed upon trade laws, there must be meaningful consequences. Nucor has joined other U.S. steel producers in filing trade cases for hot rolled, coal roll and corrosion resistant flat-rolled products. We are pleased that the International Trade Commission made preliminary determinations of injury in all three cases. Regarding the preliminary duties announced by the commerce department, we are satisfied with the duties applied to products from China in the corrosion resistant and coal rolled cases but we are extremely disappointed in the other determinations and believe that the facts to support higher duties; however we are confident that the government will be more aggressive in its final determinations after further analysis is done. Another important trade issue in 2016 is China's bid to gain recognition as a market economy under its protocol of ascension to the world trade organization agreed to in 2001. Over the past 15 years, China has failed to implement the reforms necessary to become a market economy. China remains a government run non-market economy today. There for, the U.S. has no reason to change its treatment of China as a non-market economy. Great challenges provide great opportunities for great companies that are ready size them. At Nucor, we are more than just ready, we are doing it. We are on the offensive and growing stronger. Our multi-pronged growth strategy is simple and flexible. That strategy is supported by Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth which highlight where we are focusing our energies to build long term earnings power and provide our shareholders with attractive returns on their valuable capital. Here they are, 1, strengthen our position as a low cost producer; 2, achieve market leadership positions in every product line in our portfolio; 3, move up the value chain by expanding our capabilities to produce higher quality, more import resistant products; 4, expand our downstream channels to market to increase our steel mills base load volume, especially in weak markets and 5, achieve commercial excellence to complement our traditional operational strength. Our performance in 2015 provides numerous examples of how we are growing stronger in this downturn and positioning Nucor to deliver higher highs in profitability during the inevitable cyclical upturn. Despite the challenges, illegally traded imports and less than robust capacity utilization rates, our bar mills delivered solid profitability in 2015. The keys to their success are powerful and sustainable. Market leadership positions, strong channels to the market, and an unrelenting focus to drive costs lower. Our fabricated construction products group achieved very strong year-over-year profit growth in 2015 and actually approached the record profitability reached in 2007. That is very impressive when you consider the fact that U.S. non-residential construction activity for 2015 as measured by square footage represents less than 60% of 2007's peak activity. In addition to their strong market leadership positions, Nucor's fabricated construction products enhance the through the cycle profitability and flexibility of our steel making businesses. Our structural steel business also delivered attractive earnings growth in 2015 while working against strong headwinds from high import levels and low mill capacity utilization. Impressive results were delivered by all of our structural steel teams. Our Nucor Yamato model mill, our Berkeley County South Carolina mill and our piling distribution business, skyline steel, Nucor's ongoing success in the structure all steel business continues to be powered by our market leadership position, strong channels to the market and new product introductions that continue to move us up the value chain. Our Nucor structural mill is continuing to expand it value-added product portfolio. In 2015, Nucor Yamato began shipping its wider sheet piling sections. These new products are already enjoying strong marketplace success. We see significant opportunities for profitable growth in this market which currently is largely supplied by imports. Further, during the second half of 2016, Nucor Yamato will begin commissioning its $75 million question and self-tempering projects. This investment will position Nucor as the sole North American producer of high strength, low alloyed beams. Our Berkeley County, South Carolina sheet mill achieved very solid fourth quarter and full year 2015 profitability in what can best be described as horrific flat-rolled market conditions. The Berkeley team continues to capitalize on their investments in vacuum degassing and the wide light capabilities provided by caster and hot mill equipment upgrades. New products from the wide light modernization are allowing us to gain new business in a wide range of end use markets including metal buildings, railcars, auto heaters, automotive, heavy equipment and motor lamination nation. Of particular note, Nucor's automotive business continues to grow with work awarded by a diversified and high quality portfolio of automotive OEM customers. Highlighting Nucor's overall commitment to profitable growth in the automotive market and our strategic focus on commercial excellence, we opened a Detroit sales office earlier this year. Our shipment rate to the automotive market from our sheet and SBQ bar Mills increased by about 20% in 2015 versus 2014 to approximately 1.4 million tons. We believe the time could not be better for a financially strong and technologically advanced steel supplier such as Nucor to make a more significant contribution to the automotive industry. In November we acquired Dallas [ph] cold finished bar facilities located in Ohio and Georgia. And the combined annual production capability of 75,000 tons, this acquisition strengthens Nucor's market leadership position in this very attractive value-added business and important channel to the market. I warmly welcome to the Nucor family all of our newest teammates in Orrville, Ohio and Cartersville, Georgia. Our list of five drivers to profitable growth begins with the objective to strengthen our position as a low cost producer. Nucor's DRI production capability with its excellent conversion cost structure has significantly strengthened our position as a low cost steel maker. It gives us the flexibility to optimize Nucor's overall iron units mix and most importantly, cost. Consistent with our announcement earlier this month, our DRI plant in Louisiana has resumed operations and is producing high quality DRI. Recent changes in raw material pricing led to this decision. These are challenging times in the steel business, but for a company such as Nucor, one that is in a unique position of strength, these are also times of great opportunities. Here is what I see throughout Nucor. The right people working with their typical high energy level and sense of urgency to seize these opportunities for profitable growth, ensuring that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Tony Rizzuto with Cowen & Co.
Tony Rizzuto:
John, my first question I just wanted to know on the trade side what gives you the confidence the final decision will bite harder and be more broad based first of all?
John Ferriola:
Well let me start by saying that we take a hard look at the data and as we view the data, and as we have anxious to go back and present it to the commerce department we feel confident that we can prove a strong case and then came out in the preliminary. So we're pretty confident -- remember that during the preliminary findings they see only some of the facts presented by frankly on the countries that we are looking to gain some duties from. So they all see the whole picture. We have an opportunity during this period to present our case and we're confident that when we get to present our case, and get a more balanced view in front of them they will come out with a stronger determination in the final determination.
Tony Rizzuto:
In this environment provided that they do see a little bit more in the way of the industry and the final determination is little bit stronger. We still have obviously certain end markets which some call in recession and U.S. dollars still fairly strong raw materials at depressed levels. Can you envision hot rolled moving sustainably above $450 per ton?
John Ferriola:
It's very difficult to project where pricing is known to go and let me ask maybe by addressing your earlier point that we do recognize that Nucor that despite our best efforts and effective trade cases to effective trade action, we recognize that because of the dollar there's always going to be some challenges on the import front which is why when you look at our strategy and how we have developed our products to move up the value chain, we have got a strategy that we use to help insulate us and much as possible from the imports. Higher value products that are harder to import. We continue to develop a stronger channel to the market that provides a nice barrier for us gives us some protection from the imports. So we're taking this from a two front battle, one we are continuing to fight the imports, the illegal unfairly traded imports let me be real clear about that we do not have a problem with imports. We have a problem with illegal unfairly traded imports. So we'll continue that battle and we'll continue with our strategy of moving up the value chain, gaining more market leadership position in the products in which we participate and to continue to develop our channel to the market.
Tony Rizzuto:
And just talking a little bit further about that I was intrigued by your comments about market opportunities you and I wonder if you could talk a bit further about the opportunities you see to further penetrate the automotive and maybe HVAC. Is it possible to quantify the opportunities in terms of volume and margin potential that you'll see? Sounds like a lot of things you're doing--
John Ferriola:
Let me address that from the automotive front because that's probably where we feel we have the greatest opportunity. As you know, that we've increased sales in automotive on a delivery bases by about 20% over last year. Today we're at about a 1.4 million ton a year market penetration. We fully expect to be able to get up to 2 million tons over the next couple of years and that's going to be in both sheet products and our SBQ. As we continue in sheet and we move up the value chance into the advanced high strength steals, particularly when you think about what we've done on our Berkeley facility we provide light project that's given us the ability to continue to move even higher and the strength sheet steel products while maintaining the light gauge they need in the automotive applications. So we feel very good about our sheet penetration into automotive and I'll also point out that on our SBQ, we continue to develop more and more products and bear in mind Tony that as our team does a great job selling today automotive market and our products present great opportunities for the automotive customers, and let's be honest the automotive industry is taking a look at the entire steel industry today and they look at Nucor and our balance sheet and they see a long term sustainable supplier. When you think about how they order steel, they order steel today, it takes a long time to get qualified and years to go through that entire process and then the steel they're ordering today could show up on a platform that's not even going to roll-out for two to three years from today so they want to make absolutely certain that after they've gone through the entire qualification period that when they roll that product out that new platform out in two to three years they want to make certain that their steel supplier is going to be there and able to supply the steel that they need to keep their factories running.
Tony Rizzuto:
I wonder if you could comment I've been hearing about a competitor perhaps losing some people on the R&D side you know the heavy auto area in Michigan since you opened up that office out there I'm wondering if you might have been able to attract a few of those folks over to your shop?
John Ferriola:
Let me just answer the question this way. The most qualified people out there are looking for companies that work for companies that they know are going to be around for the long term and all I'll say is when you look at the balance sheet and when these potential candidates take a look at our company one of the things they bring up towards all the time is that look we want to get with a company we know is going to be there for the long term and I want to finish my career with a company. Not only do they are impressed with our balance sheet but once they come down and spend some time with us they like our culture, like working for the concept of working for the Nucor family, so yes, we had great potential to attract the best people out there and having opened this office in Detroit. I'm telling you what, that was a great move and I guess it was two months ago we have a grand opening I'll tell you Tony we had over 200 customers come by and talk to us and the one thing that we heard consistently through that two or three hour period was a major concern about the suitability of some of our competitors in this industry and they are anxious to do more business with Nucor as a result of that. We'll move on and give someone else a chance to ask questions, thank you Tony.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matt Murphy:
Maybe just picking up from there in terms of R&D and auto, can you summarize what some of the main steps, the mini mill industry have to do to make more in-roads on auto? What is sort of the key quality steps you've got to make and how quickly can you make them to make more meaningful in-roads.
John Ferriola:
Well probably I'm going to speak just to Nucor because I can't speak for other competitors, probably biggest issue is getting through the qualification period. It's an issue of timing. When you talk about what products do we need to develop to be able to get penetration into it I would tell you that today we're producing just about all of the products we need to get our full penetration into automotive. On making advanced high strength steals, we have great quality steel going to the automotive industry, so where we need to be in terms of products today. Now having said that what's good today is not good enough tomorrow so we need to continue to work on developing even more sophisticated grades that have higher strength while still maintaining flexibility or improved flexibility for the designs that are coming out in the future so there's always more to do but I want to be clear about this point. Today at least new cars [ph] in mini mill we can produce virtually every type of steel that's needed in automotive. One of the questions I'm always asked is about exposed automotive quality and I answered this question several times but I'll say it one more time. Today we have the ability to produce exposed automotive that is actually out there on cars and went through a qualification period. So we're very comfortable with the products that we can supply and the quality that we can supply. Now as I mentioned earlier, there's a very long qualification period and after the qualification period you have to wait for it to be introduced and your steel is being specified on so there's a period of time it's going to take to grow to this 2 million or better tons a year level with automotive but it's strictly a question of working our way through that time period now.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Chris Olin with Rosenblatt Securities.
Chris Olin:
Just wanted to talk a little bit about the rebar market and I know you mentioned December shipments were running better than you guys expected. I was just curious if you saw any order strength from the implementation of the new highway bill. Are you seeing public spending dollars starting to flow into your business?
John Ferriola:
It's really too early to see much of an impact on the Highway Bill. Although we are really pleased the government after what's it been more than a decade of having short periods of time it's great to see them come out with a five year plan. Frankly we believe they need to go even further and have a longer term plan and the infrastructure of our country it is desperately needed and to answer your question directly, we haven't seen much of an impact right now. We expect probably in 2016 we begin to see some effect and we believe that we'll see a more significant impact starting in 2017.
Chris Olin:
Just as a quick follow-up have you ever tried to calculate the potential market impact from the spending dollars like any thoughts on how much volume could be generated for the industry just from roads and bridge projects coming up?
John Ferriola:
I don't know that we've ever tried to figure out an exact number but I'll tell you when you look at the product prep we have to offer, the type of products we have to offer not only you mentioned rebar but think about the plate applications that go into infrastructure. So we've got bar products that go in there, we’ve got plate products that go in there and by the way don't forget a lot of this work is going into bridges and we've got great piling that we can offer to and we offer piling products that only we produce domestically and as I always like to say, when you're going to build a bridge we can supply every type of steel you need in that bridge and when all said and done we'll sell you the nuts and bolts to put it together from our fastener [ph] division. So when I look across the spectrum of companies in our industry, Nucor, I believe is positioned better than most to take advantage and gain the most out of this Highway Bill as it comes into fruition and the dollars begin to flow.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Chris Terry from Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry:
Just after a little bit more detail in the CapEx outlook for 2016, I see you mentioned a number of 500 million and talked about 75 for Yamato. Just wondering how else or if you can give a breakdown of how the CapEx layout looks for the year?
Jim Frias:
I'm sorry I missed the second half of the question.
John Ferriola:
The question is we mentioned the 75 million in QST and we talk about a total budget of about 500 million. He's looking for a little bit more color on how the rest will be distributed. A couple of things we always have our maintenance CapEx which accounts for somewhere around 300 million to 350 million typically, is that a good number?
Jim Frias:
That's right and there aren't as many large organic projects right now in the pipeline separate of the project at Nucor Yamato.
John Ferriola:
But I'd mention one other and that's the heat treating project. We're adding heat treating capability at our Memphis facility and an earlier question was about automotive that will also help us move further into the automotive as we can heat treat our own product coming out of Memphis. Although we've already spent most of that money because it was more installing than spending fresh capital.
Jim Albrecht:
But that's another project that we're doing. So those are the two that we can mention as John said, most of the large ones and we're kind of happy about it, most of our large ones were past the phase where we're spending the money, we're well into the startup and frankly past the startup and we’re beginning to see some of the returns from these projects that we've invested in heavily and we mentioned several types the wide light project, we mentioned piling project. I'll mention the DRI project, so it's not to be past point where we will have spent on the existing projects. Now having said that I want to be very clear that I can't give you any specifics as to what we're doing but there will be we believe that there's many opportunities both organically and through M&A activity to continue to grow our business and we're anxious to do that. Just because we're planning on a $500 million budget that doesn't mean that that's what it will be at the end of 2016.
Chris Terry:
Is there anything else you wanted to say on the acquisition side or the competitive advantage, you've obviously talked quite a bit about the order space but specifically what sort of industries you're looking at there or what opportunities you actually see?
John Ferriola:
Well I'll tell you what I'd love to talk about that but I don't want to go to prison but there's really nothing I can say about it other than I'll make this a general comment and it's going to go back to our five points of profitable growth, so if you look at those areas we talked about there are things in which we can continue to improve our market leadership position in the markets in which we compete so there will be things that strengthen our channel for the market that will be things that continue to move us up the value chain, our products up the value chain making them more import resistant and I don't want to leave out one of the most important ones. That is we will continue to invest in our operations in ways that will continue to lower our cost of operation because at the end of the day, we're at a commodity business and we're in a global commodity business and the way to succeed in a commodity business in a Global Market place is to be the low cost producer so we will continue to invest below our cost of production which obviously was one of the big reasons we invested our $750 $780 million in our DRI facility so that's more of a general answer to your question but really all I can give you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
I wanted to ask about your costs and about uses of cash. So just for starters, can you provide a little bit more clarity on your SG&A run rate since it dropped off sharply fourth quarter versus your run rate first three quarters of the year with 125ish and then it went to 84 million and similarly getting a lot of concerns over the LIFO swing potential into the first quarter. Can you provide more context for how to think about that?
Jim Frias:
First on the SG&A, we are a pay for performance company. We have significant amount of our compensation across the company including profit-sharing for all employees that's affected by our profitability. So the impairment charges did result in a reduction of our obligations to incentive compensation. So that's the first point and that's why the second half run rate is different than the first half. The second point you asked about was remind me Timna.
Timna Tanners:
Yes concerns over the LIFO swing.
Jim Frias:
So on LIFO, it's based on where we have a view about where the long term raw material prices are going, so it's hard for us to predict what scrap it's going to do over 2016 so we begin every year with kind of a conservative view that scrap is going to go up some and we book some expense in the first quarter and that's what we're being more transparent about in our guidance regarding the first quarter but clearly, without knowing what the final outcome is going to be we will have some LIFO expense, it's non-cash but we will have the expense in the first quarter to position ourselves to move either way based on what really happens to scrap prices as the year unfolds.
Timna Tanners:
Okay and then my other question was regarding uses of cash and I know you've already highlighted your five areas of focus and talked about what M&A might look like but if you could comment specifically on the buyback so we couldn't find evidence of much buyback since 2008 so does this mean this is a new focus for the company, that means you're not finding better M&A alternatives and therefore finding your shares as a better use of cash or can you talk to us a little bit about your thinking there?
John Ferriola:
I'll be happy to address that. We always have three approaches to our capital allocation and let me make sure that I highlight the first one and the first one is to invest in profitable growth of our company. That is always our first focus and I want to be clear, Timna. We believe strongly that there are many opportunities to continue to invest in the profitable sustainable growth of our company both internally, organic and externally through M&A activity. So that's the first objective that will always be the objective. Second objective in capital allocation is to make sure we return our shareholders valuable capital to them at an appropriate way. We look at dividend as being a very appropriate way to do that. We think it's a good dividend, well balanced dividend, look to maintain a prudent payout ratio between supplemental and our base and we look forward to the days like we had in 2005 and 2006 when we have such good cash flow coming in that we can increase the supplemental dividend and return more of the capital to our shareholders, so that's our second objective. And our third objective as you mentioned when we can't beat either of the two first ones is to look at stock as a potential buyback and so those are the three areas we look at and I'll point out that there's a lot of questions about the cash and our cash position today and when you look at 2015, we generated a lot of cash in 2015 but I think it's the second highest that we've had since what about 2005? Highest since 2008 and we have a lot of cash on hand but let me be clear again we feel we have a lot of opportunities to spend it wisely in a disciplined manner, on a flexible disciplined manner to grow our company. If we don't see opportunities out there that return the kind of capital, return on invested capital that we're looking for, then we'll do the prudent thing and return it to our shareholders or buy stock. Right now when we look the all three of those we saw it during the past month stock was a good opportunity and we bought some stock. It is definitely not a major change in our position or direction or anything like that. I want to be really clear about that.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
I had a question on your sheet mix and how much shaft shipments last year went to the hot roll market versus downstream market any way you could help us think about that?
John Ferriola:
When you look at our mix about 55%-60% goes T hot and the rest is pretty well split evenly between cold rolled and galvanized but basically I would say an easy way to remember the numbers which is what I need I'd use 60% hot band, 20% cold rolled and 20% galvanized and that's pretty close.
Phil Gibbs:
And I was interested the comments on notable 2016 improvement in the fabrication piece of the business and given the fact that at least we were thinking there were some pricing resets occurring on maybe some rebar fab and potentially cold finished bar product, how are you thinking about the meaningful improvement is it volume related, pricing related, how do we get there?
Ray Napolitan:
Well our improved profitability in 15 and expected in 16 is a result of a couple of things. Strong operational performance by our teams lead the way in my view with lower cost and we expect those to continue in 2016. We also continue to see improving demand for our products and services in our downstream businesses and we continue to lead the market in technology such as 3D modeling and again continue to add value to our products.
John Ferriola:
I hope everyone understood the comment about the bin and that allows us to do and a sophisticated computer system we use that helps us design our building and what it allows us to do is to tackle and Bill more complex structures which are higher margin structures and also impacts our cost, so it has two very positive effects for us. So ready to hit them all on the head. I think that I want to just make a shout out to my team and say great job guys, I'm really proud of the fact that if you look at all three of our downstream businesses, and we had a very good year we expect another one in 2016 and maybe a comment about our shipments in 2015 how they compare to the previous year given the fact that when you look at McGraw Hill the demand for non-residential construction was down 5-6%.
Jim Frias:
The non-residential market was down in '15 about 5%-6% in new construction starts and backlogs and all of our key downstream segments are up and our shipments in 2015 were basically the same.
John Ferriola:
Up a little bit than 2014.
Jim Frias:
So the team did a great job even though demand was dropping we were able to maintain our shipments and we were able to improve our profitability. That's a formula for long term success right there. So great job, team, thank you.
Phil Gibbs:
And then just the last one I had. You said the recent changes in raw material price lead to getting the DRI back on track. Just clarifying what you meant on that given that iron ore prices and pig iron prices have been relatively stable over the time frame so looking for more color and it's a again I've been getting a lot from investors. Thank you.
John Ferriola:
Well the keyword you use is relatively stable and when we look at it and we see an increase of 20-$30 a ton on scrap and a $10 increase in pig iron that might be relatively stable but when you buy 15 million tons of scrap, and million 5 tons of pig iron that's a big change and we felt as we talked with our DJ Joseph team whose out there all the time working in the marketplace we felt we could attribute at least half of that to the fact we were taking a DRI plan off line and since we when we finished the maintenance outage at the end of last month, we were at a point where we had to make a decision as to when you're back on or not and we were basically breakeven on a marginal contribution basis and so we were kind of up in the air as to what to do. We thought it was a good opportunity to leave it all and we've always believed that bringing it online had a significant impact for us on our cost of scrap and pig iron so we said here is an opportunity to take a look and see in fact what happens so we left it all, we saw a bump go up and it's about 25-$30 a ton across the spectrum on scrap and $10 on pig iron so again that's a huge impact for us, so we bought it back online because of that and I came away from the whole thing and the team came away from the whole thing more convinced than ever that although you might not see immediate profitability in the DRI plant itself when you look at the overall impact to our company, on iron units which represents 60% of our costs the overall impact to our company is significantly better wanting that DRI plant than not wanting the DRI plant even if it is not profitable in its own right.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane:
First just from a housekeeping perspective, my apologies if I missed it I heard the comment about 300 to 350 million of maintenance CapEx but what's your full year CapEx guidance figure and then also for DNA?
Jim Frias:
The depreciation amortization is about $700 million and the CapEx is about $500 million based on the things we have planned today.
Andrew Lane:
And wanted to ask about scrap flows, how are you seeing scrap flows currently in the recycling market and what do we immediate to see a significant improvement in scrap flows for your recycling operations to restore positive margins?
Joe Stratman:
Scrap flows over the last 60-90 days have been basically flat but on a year-over-year basis, they are still down running down probably 25-30%. The second part of your question, I think let me take a shot at looking at it this way. Our DJJ business model is a very diverse business model and we some types get caught up in thinking that it's only a recycling business with scrap yards but we have five or six different business elements in our DJJ business and the recycling group alone as a part of that only represents about 15% of the DJJ revenue flow so the DJJ business model performance financial performance does not rely on the recycling group. For the recycling group to see improvements, really all you need, it's not as much flow based as much as you need stability the pricing. In other words for most of 2015 we are seeing significant drops in the market price for scrap and that's kind of like catching a falling knife. You can never really catch up with it. Once price is stabilized or shows any sign of increase then that is what drives margins and profitability at the recycling group more than just volumes.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Brian Yu with Citigroup.
Brian Yu:
First question is this touches on your auto comments a little bit earlier a bit broader but with the various blast furnace Operators out there that the contract prices reset lower but they aren't giving any indications of whether or not they've lost business in that process and I know you've mentioned your auto shipments are going to improve. If we just look at the broader contract picture and the billions you have done business within the pastor new ones you've got were you able to win in new customers going into 2016 and is it possible to give us an order of magnitude like how much more does that base load your order book for this year?
John Ferriola:
Well I can only talk in terms of what I've already said in terms of the amount of tons we are selling into it, so our order entry rate will result in about 1.4 million tons we sold in 2015 and we think it will be up a little bit in 2016 in the order of 1.5 or 1.6 but we do think over the next two to three years based upon the interest we have, people that are working with us on qualifying our products we feel very comfortable in saying that we'll be up in the 1.9 or 2 million-ton a year range within the next couple of years.
Brian Yu:
I was thinking more broadly than just auto and appliance producers, and machinery company, I think John in that case the 2 million-ton number is right for next year versus in two or three years the broader market.
John Ferriola:
If you take the entire market I'd say we're looking at about 2 million tons of contract business next year.
Brian Yu:
And then what is that versus what you did in 2015?
John Ferriola:
It was a little bit less not significantly less, maybe improvement of about 10%.
Brian Yu:
And second question I've got is this goes back to the fabrication business and you guys have noted profitability is up, shipments were sideways and pricing is down a little bit. One thing and not taking anything away from your team there but steel prices did come down a lot so I'm thinking that maybe the drop in steel prices did improve margin?
John Ferriola:
We were remiss in not mentioning that and absolutely correct and Frank little I apologize because one of the notes I have said steel pricing and we forgot to mention it but I have to tell you that we looked at this carefully taking that into account and we're very comfortable saying that still our team did the great job on lowering the cost exclusive of our steel costs and we're confident that the other things we mentioned played a large role in the picture the profitability picture.
Jim Frias:
John, if might add and adding value to the construction projects we work on. And through our channel to market and with our customers so our team has done well in that area but certainly to reinforce reduced steel prices certainly helped in 2015.
Brian Yu:
Okay, the other part of my question was just that you are guiding for increased profit ability in 16 it sounds like you're getting better prices, above your input cost in 16 versus 15 and then on the volume side are you looking for pick up in volumes out of the downstream business in 16?
John Ferriola:
Well the only thing I can tell you on that is we look at our order entry rate and we look at our backlogs okay? And we feel the backlogs are very strong, order entry rate is strong, our best estimate today is we'll see an improvement of 5-6% in our businesses in 2016 versus 2015. And if you'll look at the pundits, the McGraw Hill and so forth they are saying 6-7% improvement we think across the industry that might be a little bit aggressive but we think in our business we will see 5-6%.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Garrett Nelson with BB&T Capital Markets.
Garrett Nelson:
There's been some data suggesting there's been a bounce in domestic steel capacity utilization rates over the past month or so. Is that consistent with what you're seeing across the industry and should we expect to see a rebound in Nucor's volumes with utilization appearing to be moving up and with imports in inventories having come down a bit?
John Ferriola:
You kind of answered the question for me. Imports are coming down a little bit, in addition to imports coming down the service center inventories are down a little bit, so bottom line is yes, we do see our utilization rates increasing as we go into the first quarter and also remember that we are moving into a period where we come out of fourth quarter is usually the weakest quarter in terms of the steel business so we're kind of coming out of that quarter, first quarter, second quarter we see typically see utilization rates and we think we'll continue to see that. You mention the slowdown in imports. You mention the reduction of the inventory in our service centers but I'd also mention to you there has been quite a few shutdowns from some of our competitors that we believe we'll see some improved utilization as a result of that also. And also, we're seeing a small bounce in pricing and when you see a bounce in pricing typically that gets things going again. Customers when pricing is going down kind of waiting until they hit the bottom and we've increased pricing in several products and those price increases have been holding so we feel pretty confident we've stopped the slide and we're moving back up. Customers see that also and order entry rates go up.
Garrett Nelson:
In the past you've said Nucor's goals is to control 6-7 million tons in scrap substitutes. Is that still your goal or has your thinking changed at all-in light of the drop in scrap prices we've seen over the last several quarters?
John Ferriola:
Frankly our thinking has not changed at all. We still see that as a key long term strategic goal. I've said this several times at Nucor all of our strategies are pointed towards long term sustainable profitable growth and at the end of the day we still believe very, very strongly that I'm not sure whether it's going to be five years, seven years or ten years, but, we believe that as a result of the manufacturing decreasing in the United States and several other things, we will be glad we have that DRI plant. Just remember one other thing. We're very heavy into pig iron and that's very important to us and right now we get about 80% of our pig iron out of Russia. The rest of it is coming out of Brazil. Those are not the most stable places in the world geopolitically. HBI which is another potential product we could use as a scrap substitute comes out of Venezuela and that's also not a very stable geopolitical area so when you look at all of these facts and you look at our goal of being flexible, long term having flexibility and balance across our portfolio and a cyclical business whether scrap pricing is cyclical, iron ore is cyclical, pig iron is cyclical, steel pricing is cyclical when you look at that I believe the key to long term stable returns to our investors the best way to accomplish that is to have a nice balanced portfolio and flexible portfolio that allows us to move things around as we need to optimize the lowest cost product inputs and optimize our margins coming out of our Mills. So long winded answer to your question but no our strategy hasn't changed. We believe it's the right strategy and we'll continue with it.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
I noticed how sharply your scrap costs fell in the Fourth quarter and I note also though that it's been lagging the index on the industry if you take some of the published numbers and I'm wondering your comment on the first quarter low scrap would help you in first quarter do you think there's a chance you'll see even if the index is say flat to slightly up in the First quarter versus the fourth, the actual cost of your scrap that you consume probably goes down a little bit?
Jim Frias:
Let me start that. You're right there is a lag between the index and our performance because we always have some scrap inventory we own at our steel mills so the indexes don't reflect what we're consuming they reflect what we're buying so you're right the bottoming of the scrap prices that happen during the Fourth quarter are going to benefit from some of that to start the First quarter.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
Jim one other follow-up the large LIFO yesterday the you took in the Fourth quarter does that help or would that lower the average cost of scrap in the first or would that actually keep it higher?
Jim Frias:
It does not go through the scrap line so it doesn't affect the scrap costs we published at all. It's in the corporate line we show the segments in fact.
John Ferriola:
There might be one thing I'd want to add to your comments and that is you have to lock at that by segment, right? Because when you look at our bar Mills we have a lot less scrap on the ground. In fact some of our bar Mills just because they are geographically challenged, we don't have a lot of room some of them happen as little as two to three weeks of scrap on the ground and then you take a look at our sheet mills and not only do they necessarily have to have more on the ground but it's a different mix and the mix they use will depend upon the mix of products they are producing so it's a very complicated process that you go through but the impact that you mentioned Jim will occur more on a larger plate and sheet mills, just to give you a little more color.
Aldo Mazzaferro:
One more question, separately is there any way you could comment on your lead time in the sheet products and the long products?
John Ferriola:
We can do that. I know hot band is the shortest lead time we're probably only out a couple weeks three or four weeks in hot band but when you look at coal rolled and galvanized we are probably held to March towards the end of March for our cold rolled and galvanized.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Lipschitz with CLSA.
David Lipschitz:
So you might have answered this a couple questions ago but a couple of your competitors have taken impairment charges on their facilities I was wondering where do you guys stand with DJ Joseph?
John Ferriola:
Well we aren't going to answer that question directly. What we will say is that we do it, we do our impairment testing every year and we always look at all of our operations and we're comfortable with where we are with that and I'm going to refer back to what Joe said earlier about the business model at DJ Joseph being different. We aren't going to comment on what our competitors have done in terms of breakdowns, but when we look at our business model as Joe mentioned, it's much more than recycling and in fact the vast majority is out of recycling and when we look at our brokerage, we look at how they are performing we're very comfortable that we are well within the range of having a level of impairment.
Jim Frias:
And Dave if I can add John's absolutely correct and when you look at that mix within what we call the DJJ business, the recycling components can be a little bit cyclical but the non-recycling components provides a very, very stable and very, very healthy earnings and cash flow stream, so it's that diversity adds a lot of strength to the value of the DJJ model.
Operator:
With no further questions I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Let me conclude by saying thank you to all of our customers. We really appreciate the opportunity to earn your business every day and if we are blessed with your business we won't let you down. And thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your ongoing confidence and support. It means a lot to us. And to my teammates, I want to say thank you for creating customer value, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainability, a sustainable future for all of us and most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
That does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc. Matthew James Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc. Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker)
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2015 Earnings Call. As a reminder today's call is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. Certain statements made during this conference will be forward-looking statements involving risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurances that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risk and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference can speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligations to update them, either as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Thanks, John. Third quarter 2015 earnings of $0.71 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.45 to $0.50 per diluted share. Third quarter results included a LIFO credit that was approximately $0.11 per diluted share larger than anticipated in our guidance for the quarter, and a $0.03 per diluted share non-cash gain related to a correction of deferred tax balances. Excluding LIFO and the tax related gain the third quarter outperformance resulted from better than expected results for the month of September at our steel mills and downstream products segments. We are benefiting from the effective execution of Nucor's channel-to-market strategy and our ongoing investments to expand our offerings of value-added products. We are successfully expanding into these higher margined offerings using more demanding and import resistant applications, while at the same time maintaining our position as the low cost producer across our product portfolio. The third quarter of 2015 performance of our raw materials segment included an operating loss at our new DRI facility in Louisiana of approximately $28 million, which included a $7.7 million net charge related to the write-off of the two remaining storage domes at the facility. That compared with a second quarter operating loss of about $20 million, which included the benefit of a vendor product warranty payment of approximately $10 million. As expected Nucor Steel Louisiana has now consumed the remaining higher cost iron ore inventory acquired in 2014. In addition to continuing to produce DRI at world-class quality levels, our Louisiana team has realized significant improvements in yield, facility uptime and conversion costs. Nucor's DRI production capability in Louisiana and Trinidad puts our company in an unrivaled position of flexibility and optimizing our raw material costs through the cycle. A quick comment of our tax rate to adjust for the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. Excluding profits belonging to our business partners and the $10.2 million non-cash gain for correction of deferred tax balances, the effective tax rate was approximately 29% for the third quarter. Nucor continued to generate very robust operating cash flow in extremely challenging steel market conditions. With a highly variable and low cost structure we benefit from significant reductions in working capital during downturns. That was the case again in the first 9 months of 2015 with cash provided by operations of approximately $1.8 billion, a dramatic increase from the year ago period's operating cash flow of $926 million. Nucor's financial position remains strong. Our gross debt to capital ratio was 36% at the close of the third quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $2 billion which compares with total debt outstanding of $4.4 billion. Our next significant debt maturity is not until December 2017. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until August of 2018. Nucor is the only North American steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. Capital expenditures totaled $269 million for the first 9 months of 2015. We estimate full year 2015 capital spending will be approximately $400 million. Most of our recent larger scale organic investments have been completed or are nearing completion. Depreciation and amortization for 2015 is expected to total about $700 million. In September Nucor's Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $900 million of our company's common stock. This replaced a repurchase program that had been in place since 2007. The timing and amount of repurchases will depend on market conditions, share price, applicable legal requirements, and other factors. The Nucor team places the highest priority on making sound capital allocation decisions that continue our long-term history of being effective stewards of our shareholders' investment. Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2015 are expected to decrease compared to the third quarter of 2015, due to continued deterioration in global steel markets. A slowing economy in China is causing further global overcapacity and resulting in significant levels of imports into the domestic market. The performance of our downstream product segment is expected to decrease due to typical fourth quarter seasonality. We expect slightly lower performance in the raw materials segment due to lower scrap and metallic commodity prices. We are encouraged by the ongoing gradual improvement in non-residential construction markets and the strength in the automotive market. We are confident that Nucor's significant competitive advantages and highly adaptable business model will allow our team to continue to execute our proven strategies for delivering profitable long-term growth. We do appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim. Typical words used to describe current steel market conditions range from bleak to dismal. However those words in no way describe the attitude and outlook of the Nucor team. Even better those words also do not describe the performance of any of my teammates in the third quarter's extremely challenging environment. At Nucor we remain optimistic, determined, and focused. Nucor's long-term success has always been driven by our team's unrelenting focus on a simple strategy. Nucor capitalizes on its unrivaled position of strength to gain profitable market share in our core businesses of steel and steel products. In short we work on what's under our control. Anchoring the strategy and its execution is Nucor's business model. Its strength and adaptability is highlighted by a number of powerful building blocks. They include our culture, our robust balance sheet and cash flow generation, our low and highly variable cost structure, our flexibility and reliable production capabilities, our product diversity, and our leadership positions that we hold in many of the markets we serve. Put together these competitive strengths provide Nucor with a powerful platform for delivering value to our customers. Challenging market conditions, as we face currently, only serve to increase the opportunities to add value and grow our long-term relationships with our customers. What we call Nucor's five drivers to profitable growth highlight where we are focusing our energies to build long-term earnings power and provide our shareholders with attractive returns on their valuable capital. They are, one, enhance our position as a low cost producer. Two, achieve the market leadership position in every product line in our portfolio. Three, move up the value chain by expanding our capabilities to produce higher quality, more import resistant products. Four, expand our downstream channels to market to increase our steel mills base volume load, especially in weak markets. And five, achieve commercial excellence to complement our traditional, operational strength. Our third quarter performance provides strong evidence that our strategy of investing through the downturn is already paying off. Rather than being stuck in a defensive mode, fighting to survive, the Nucor team is on the offensive and growing stronger. The examples are numerous. Let me review a few of them for you. Through the first 9 months of 2015 our rebar and merchant bar mills delivered year-over-year earnings improvement, despite the challenges of high imports and less than robust capacity utilization rates. The keys to their success are clear. They have built market leadership positions. Equally important they have established strong channels to market through Nucor's downstream joist, decking, rebar fabrication, cold finish bar, and fastener businesses by providing our steel mills the opportunity to earn a base level of volume. Our downstream vertical integration into value-added steel products significantly enhances the through the cycle profitability and flexibility of Nucor's core steel making business. Additionally the downstream businesses are attractive profit generators for Nucor as well. All three major fabricated construction products – joists and decking, fabricated rebar, and metal buildings – achieved very strong profit growth year over year in the third quarter and the first nine months of 2015. I'm pleased to report that our Vulcraft, Verco, joist and decking group set a single month profitability record in September. More importantly both our Vulcraft, Verco group and our metal buildings group achieved record performance for the third quarter of 2015. The improved results of our fabricated construction products group is particularly impressive when you consider the state of the overall construction (13:31 – 13:36) market. Forecasted U.S. non-residential construction activity for 2015, as measured by square footage, represents only about 60% of 2007's peak activity level, so there's plenty of room for additional growth. I would like to congratulate and thank our teammates for their hard work, reducing costs and providing world-class quality products and services to our customers. Our beam mills also delivered attractive year-to-date earnings growth, while facing high import levels and low mill capacity utilization. Nucor's structural steel group's success is driven by a potent combination of its market leadership position, strong channels to market throughout our independent wide-flange beam fabricated partners, our Skyline Steel piling distribution business, and new product introductions that continue to move us up the value chain. After completing last year's $115 million sheet piling product expansion project, our Nucor-Yamato mill is now enjoying strong marketplace success with its new, wider piling sections. These value added products are lighter and stronger, covering more area at a lower installed cost. Our Nucor-Yamato team is aggressively going after this market, which currently is largely supplied by imports. Our goal over the next several years is to grow our wider piling sections annual volume to 100,000 tons with these value added tons generating above average profitability. Last month, Nucor-Yamato announced another project to expand its value-added offerings, a $75 million quench and self-tempering process will be installed with commissioning expected during the second half of 2016. This will give Nucor-Yamato the capability to produce A913 structural sections with a high-strength, low-alloy grade chemistry that provides excellent weldability, while achieving good toughness, even at low temperatures. Common applications include gravity columns for high-rise buildings, long-span trusses for stadiums and convention centers, and for all projects where seismic design is a critical factor. These A913 beams allow the use of lighter foot weights, which reduces the weight and cost for the builder. That makes steel even more competitive versus concrete and wood. The low-alloy grade chemistry also enhances our position as a low cost producer of beams. As the sole North American supplier of high-strength, low-alloy beams, Nucor-Yamato will further enhance its market leadership position in wide-flange beams. Nucor's focus on our drivers to profitable growth and resulting strategic investments are paying big dividends in our other businesses. This is particularly evident in the markets that are under the greatest pressure from the flood of imports and other challenges. Our Berkeley County, South Carolina sheet mill achieved very solid third quarter and year-to-date profitability in what can only be described as horrific flat-rolled market conditions. The Berkeley team is capitalizing on its investments in vacuum degassing, combined with upgrades last year to its caster and hot mill. The mill's performance is being driven by its very diverse product mix, technical capabilities, and commitment to commercial excellence. As we have discussed on previous calls, Berkeley now has the lightest hot-rolled gauge capability of any sheet mill in the southern U.S. market and with a finished steel capability of up to 74 inches. New products from the wide, light modernization are allowing us to gain new business in a range of end use markets, including metal buildings, railcars, water heaters, automotive, heavy equipment, and water transmission pipe. Despite severe pressure from imports and demand weakness in several key end use markets, Nucor's engineered bar mills remain profitable. We are moving aggressively to utilize our recently expanded range of production and inspection capabilities to grow profitable market share in the SBQ and wire rod markets. Our Memphis mill was recently awarded automotive crankshaft business that is a direct result of its quality inspection investments made since 2012. This week, Memphis announced another improvement, the very cost effective acquisition of a continuous quench and temper line with a separate annealing furnace capable of processing bar products from 2.5 inches to 11 inches in diameter. The addition of heat treating capabilities will enable Memphis to grow in a number of markets, including energy, heavy equipment, service centers, and automotive. The automotive market continues to be an attractive growth opportunity for Nucor. Nucor's shipping rate into the automotive market increased by 20% in 2015 versus 2014 to a 1.4 million tons per year rate. Particularly encouraging is the volume of business that Nucor is being awarded on future automotive platforms. The automotive companies are more and more appreciating the value of Nucor's reliability, sustainability, and our financial strength. Our portfolio of light weighting, advanced high-strength steels is also attracting a lot of interest. We remain optimistic about reaching our 2 million tons annual goal in the next few years. Finally, our Darlington, South Carolina, facility's wire rod rolling mill continues to grow Nucor's market share in the wire rod market. Year to date rod shipments through the first 9 months are up 11% compared to 2014. Darlington's wire rod growth is also allowing us to more efficiently utilize the capacity at our other bar mills producing merchant bar and rebar products. Since I have mentioned several times the challenging market conditions faced by all of our businesses, I will share my thoughts on what is by far the biggest factor driving the weakness. Illegally traded imports continue to have a significant impact on the U.S. steel industry. The underlying issue is global steel making overcapacity, resulting from the trade distorting practices of some governments. Steel imports into the U.S. market remain at historically high levels. The import levels are depressing the capacity utilization rates of the U.S. steel producers and continue to account for one-third of the U.S. market. In the first 8 months of this year China's global steel exports surged 27% to 72 million tons. They are on track to exceed 100 million tons, which is greater than the total U.S. steel production last year. Steel products from China are flooding into markets around the world, creating a domino effect as countries look for markets for their steel products. The massive increase in China's steel exports are provoking a wave of trade actions across the globe, including Europe, South Africa, Mexico, and India, as steel producers fight against the illegally subsidized steel imports being dumped into their markets. As these nations continue to successfully protect their markets from illegally traded and subsidized Chinese steel products, more of those products are being dumped into our market. Recent decisions in several trade cases have been positive for the U.S. industry. The International Trade Commission has made preliminary determinations of injury in the cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and corrosion resistant sheet steel trade cases, allowing the investigation in all three cases to proceed. Nucor will continue to assess market conditions in other product areas and aggressively pursue cases when appropriate. Our fight against illegally traded steel imports is essential to meeting our responsibility to be an effective steward of our shareholders' valuable capital. These are challenging times. But for a company such as Nucor, one that is in a unique position of strength, these are also times for opportunistic action. And that is exactly what I see throughout Nucor. The right people focusing their unrivaled energy level and sense of urgency to achieving our goal of profitable growth. I have never been more confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. We would now be happy to answer your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll take our first question from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Congrats on a strong quarter. I think you kind of beat my number on pricing alone. Actually the volume number was a little bit weak. So it was – it kind of let me to believe that perhaps you're taking a pretty disciplined approach about which steel you actually want to sell into the market at this point and perhaps you may be walking away from some lower value sales that are head to head with imports. So just kind of wanted to confirm that. And get a sense about how you think about selling into a weak market like this? And what that's doing to your mix? And then how does that kind of play into how you see operating rates in the fourth quarter?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well let me start by saying you hit the nail on the head with your analysis. We mentioned during my earlier comments that a key part of our strategic plan is to continue to grow market share in the higher quality, higher margin, more profitable products. And that's exactly what we've been doing. So, yes, that has some impact on our total output. The higher quality products, although they are more profitable, do tend to run slower on our mills. So that has some impact upon the amount of tons that we ship. But you're spot on. We're looking hard at those products that we believe bring higher margins, higher profits to our company. And that are also more import resistant. Given the overcapacity in the world today, we believe that that's an important element of our long-term strategy.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. And maybe just a question on trade. I've heard a couple conflicting views on how the process works. And I just wanted to try to clarify this. But obviously over the past couple of months in particular we've really seeing seaborne steel prices just absolutely get crushed. And clearly that data would be good to have in these trade cases as far as proving dumping. Is there an opportunity for the mills to go back and add some of this data before the final rulings come out at some point next year?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
There absolutely is. In fact in some cases, as is the case with the rebar, we were not at all happy with the determination on the tariff that was applied to the product surging into our country from Turkey. And we're considering strongly going back and appealing that decision. And obviously we will use the pricing data that you just mentioned as a strong component in that appeal. So yes, we can use that information that's out there today. And we will use it effectively. And I would just add to that that we spoke a little bit in the past about the recently passed legislation that strengthens the trade remedies that are available to us. And frankly giving us more effective tools for fighting against this illegally trade products. And we're really pleased with the way that that came out. We're very appreciative to the administration and to Congress for making that happen. And those new regulations, those new guidelines will be applied to the trade cases that are in effect, going into effect now. The corrosion-resistant, the hot-rolled, and the cold-rolled will all be impacted by the new trade remedies that are currently in effect. And as a result we're optimistic as to the outcome of these. We think we have very strong cases, and we expect to have very positive results.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. And just to clarify that just one more time, sorry if I'm being a little bit dense here. But the data that's coming out today, would you have to wait to appeal if you wanted to include that? So after the trade case is finalized. Or can you actually get that in maybe between the preliminary and the final ruling a little bit sooner?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well let me be clear. I might have confused the issue there for a minute. I was speaking in the case of rebar where there was a determination, we will be able to use that pricing data as we go back into the appeal. In the cases of cold-rolled and hot-rolled and corrosion-resistant we will be able to use that pricing data in these current cases. We will not have to wait for a determination and then use them in an appeal. They can be entered into the case as we press it forward.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Very clear. Thank you very much.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Not now? Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
Good afternoon. Maybe just a follow-up on the mix question there. So in particular I noticed cold finished was fairly low relatively to where you've been at in Q3 in past years and the same with plate. Just wondering if you can share any color on that? Is that specifically choosing not to compete on price? Or is there demand weakness?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
In those two instances you just gave it's more of a case of the demand is frankly still pretty good relative to last year. Our demand across all of our products is about consistent, maybe down 2% or 3%. The issue that we're struggling with particularly on plate is the massive amount of illegally traded, unfairly traded products coming in from many countries, particularly Russia is one that I would mention in particular. So it's an issue of excessive supply as a result of imports. There is a little bit of a demand decrease when you look at agriculture and in construction using heavy plate. So there's a little bit of a demand impact. But the real issue on plate without a doubt is the supply and the oversupply as a result of the imports.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
Thanks. And then just a follow-up on the structural pricing. That was another area I noticed that had come down a bit faster in Q3. How are you seeing structural pricing going forward? Is it sliding? Or do you think you can keep it stable?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We think structural pricing going forward will be fairly stable.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
That's easy. Okay. Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew James Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Matthew James Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
So I'm wondering, are there any customers – any buyers from whom you've received orders for maybe the first time in a while? Who are shifting away from imported steel in anticipation of the effect of trade cases? And on the flipside are there any buyers out there who have told you, right now we're good. Inventories are okay. I'm seeing this gap down in scrap prices and I kind of see to – I need to see where we're going to shake out coming into the New Year?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well you've asked two questions. And the answer to both of them frankly is yes. We are seeing customers coming back to us, who are recognizing that right now their inventories are a little bit bloated. So we don't see them pouring in right now with new orders. But we are hearing from them that because of the trade cases and frankly because our pricing has become much more competitive relative to imported pricing, that they have not placed the orders for imports to the same level that they have in the past. And as you know when you're talking about import orders, there's about a 2-month to 3-month, maybe 4-month sometimes depending upon the product, delay or a lag time between when the order was placed and when product arrives. So many of our service center customers in particular are recognizing that the orders that they placed 2 months, 3 months, 4 months ago now do not look nearly as attractive. And unfortunately they're on the water, they're on the way, and they can't be cancelled. So we're going to see this issue of heavy inventories continue for a little bit of time. But ultimately we do believe that because we're more competitive today and because they have seen some other issues with lead times from the imported products, we'll be able to regain that business. We see our customers coming back to us from the imports. The other comment that I'll make just in general, you asked about other customers coming back to us. We're also seeing many new customers approaching us, because they see Nucor as a company with a very strong financial position and sustainable. They know we're going to be here for the long term. And there's some other companies that might be a little bit more challenged, particularly if this challenging time continues for another quarter or 2 quarters. So the answer to your question is yes, and the answer to your question is yes.
Matthew James Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thanks. Very helpful. Let me follow-up with that really quickly and just say look, the details of the organic product and the capacity development that you're doing, that's great. How are you thinking about use of available capital in terms of M&A? Is there any sense of look, we're in strong financial shape, especially relative to the group. We're expecting the bottom to come in sooner than later. Let's get active. Let's find other assets. Let's tuck-in some more downstream facilities. Is that – where's your thinking there?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I'm going to answer that in a more general sense, and talk about how we view what we're doing with our cash. We have been a strong cash generator. This is not a very good year in terms of cash generation from operations. And certainly acquisitions would be one thing that we will look at. But in a more general sense when I think about the deployment of our cash going forward, our first priority will always be aggressive growth, profitable growth in our company. And that can be done several ways. Organic growth has been for us one of the ways that we get the largest returns for the investments that we've made. And you've heard us list today and in the past conference calls numerous projects, in which we are growing our company profitably through organic investments in our existing operations. Frankly, acquisitions is another way that we are deploying our cash to accomplish profitable growth. Skyline would be an example of that. Fairly recent – more recent than that would be our Gallatin acquisition. So yes. We're looking at that. It's a way to not only grow our volumes, but to grow our customer base and grow the breadth of our products. And that's something that's very important as we look potential targets out there. And I take this opportunity to just remind you of one other way that we can grow our company through investments. And that's we got a pretty good track record of growing through greenfield expansion. And I know that there's a lot of overcapacity. And everybody is lifting their eyebrows and rolling their eyes when I say that, but we are constantly looking for unique market opportunities or product niches, in which we can grow our – through greenfield expansion.
Matthew James Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Excellent. Thanks for the time and good luck for the next quarter.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah. Hey, good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So I also wanted to follow-up if I could on the cash level, because it is the highest that you've had since 2009. And that was maybe hunkering down. So I guess I just wanted to know is that preparing for restocking? Does the message about your reauthorized buyback program send a signal? Or just I know there's a lot of uses of cash. I'm just wondering, this is a pretty big cash hoard even for you. So I just wondered if you could provide any priorities of how you're thinking about using them if you could?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I've mentioned that the number one priority is to profitably grow our company. And that will always be our first priority. In terms of building up a large cash reserve or a war chest, how are we looking at that, I don't think that we're really looking at it as a need to be able to grow our inventories, our working capital as the businesses get better. That's really not – that is not what is driving it. The opportunity for opportunistic buys as we go forward, again as this challenging time extends out, there might be opportunities, as we've done in the past, to pick up some very good assets at a very good price. You know, Timna, that one our strategies has always been to grow our company during the downturns when assets are less expensive. So we think that that's going to be happening as we go forward. We think there's going to be more assets available at good prices. We want to make sure that we're prepared to capitalize on those opportunities. So we have that. And that's one of the reasons that we're making sure that we preserve our cash. Now to your questions about dividends and buyback programs, I'll make just a couple of comments. Now first of all as you know we pay a very health dividend today. And we've proven in the past that when our profit levels are such that we could pay out a supplemental dividend without adversely affecting our ability to aggressively grow and profitably grow our company, we'll do it. Right now that's not the case. And in terms of the buyback, what we did was we asked our board to authorize a buyback program that was, frankly, in place, so really just refreshing a program that had already been authorized and had been on the books for many years. We did that. We want to be prepared for a situation where there might be limited, profitable growth opportunities that do not provide a large enough return that would outweigh the repurchasing of our stock. In other words when we take a look at the opportunities in front of us, we want to make sure that the return that we gain from those acquisitions, those investments, surpass what we would gain for our shareholders by repurchasing the stock. If that's not the case, we want to be ready. If that situation should come up suddenly, we want to be ready. One thing about this industry, Timna, as you know, it changes. And when change occurs, it occurs rapidly. And we made this move just so that we're ready for that eventuality.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. No doubt. There's a lot of assets in mining if you decide to branch out there. So not making a suggestion, just saying.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well and I'll just pick up on that suggestion for a minute, not respond to it directly. But one of the things that you have to remember about our company, we have such a broad portfolio of businesses, such a large portfolio of upstream, core businesses, our downstream. If you look at our various businesses we have about 12 businesses that provide an opportunity in which we can invest. That's a large number of opportunities and it spans a very broad spectrum of opportunity. So as I look at the situation going forward, we can see opportunities both upstream, core business, and downstream. And we want to make sure that we're ready. We think they're going to be coming available as this – as people struggle to get through this challenging time. And we want to be positioned to take advantage of that, to capitalize on that.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. I wanted to ask, if I could, about the – my second question would be about the raw material segment. And I cringe to ask this, but I know that you're probably not delighted to be reporting losses in the segment. And I know that DRI was looking a lot better positioned when met coal prices were much higher. But what are you thinking about doing to fix that segment and reverse it, or is it just strategic, and you're okay with losses there for now?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well as we've said many times that our DRI investment is a investment for the long term. And that we recognized and we recognized right from the beginning that there's going to be pricing situations in raw materials, in which the DRI investment is going to be a single and times when it's going to be a home run and times when it's going to be a grand slam. But the other point that I would make is that we always look at our investments for the long term. And when you look at the macro impact reasons for making the investment, the fact that manufacturing is leaving the country and with it prime scrap. When you look at long term, we still believe that the availability and the pricing for natural gas will be much more attractive than that for coking coal. When you look at the improvement in the efficiency of automotive blanking, which results in less prime scrap availability, even in periods where the automotive market is very strong. For all of these reasons, as we look long term, we believe that having the ability to produce a low residual scrap substitute product for Nucor is going to be a very good investment.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And if I may, Timna, what – if I can, which is I let you ask a second question, maybe you can make me – let me make a second statement about this response.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And that's one thing that we – I don't know that we emphasize enough when we talk about the DRI project and what it does for us. And that gives us – it's that it gives us tremendous flexibility in our selection of raw material use for our currencies (44:11). And by using that flexibility we're able to impact other scrap or other iron unit products. And that has been very beneficial to us. I mean you saw – you've seen the impact of that a couple of months ago when we saw such a tremendous drop in scrap. And I would also suggest to you that whenever we put in or take out 4 million tons of a scrap substitute product, it's going to have an impact on other iron unit products. It's just going to have an impact. So it gives us tremendous flexibility and the ability to better utilize our scrap mix to enhance our low cost position as a steel supplier.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You're welcome. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good afternoon, guys. Jorge Beristain with DB here. I had a question about the bar volumes that we saw decline sequentially, 8% quarter on quarter, even exceeding that of sheet. Could you give some color as to what's happening in bars? Obviously we know that energy has been weak. But are there any other end markets that bars would be going into that would account for that kind of sequential weakness?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well again you hit the nail on the head. Certainly energy, in which a lot of our special bar quality products go into energy. That has taken a tremendous hit. We mentioned earlier, agricultural. That has been way down. And of course we have a lot of product, bar products, long products going into agriculture. So that's another area where we've seen a declining market. And finally I would say heavy equipment. And the heavy equipment market is down. And once again I'm going to go back to my favorite subject, and that's of unfairly traded imports, because when you look at particularly rebar, the tsunami of unfairly traded rebar into this country over the last year has been – it's just totally unacceptable. And it has had a tremendous impact upon our volume and our profitability in that area in our bar products.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. And maybe just following up on Timna's question earlier about your raw material segment. Could you just give us some color as to the sort of quarter-on-quarter deterioration that we saw? You had pointed to an improvement in DRI. So are we to assume that it's really deterioration in the scrap purchasing there that's bringing down the results? Or can you give us just some color as to what's going on there?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I don't have the exact number in my head for the amount that scrap has gone down over the quarter. But I can tell you that there has been recent movements that over the quarter – what would you say, Joe? How much has it been down over the quarter, scrap pricing?
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President:
Scrap pricing over the quarter has dropped about $70.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
$50 to $70. And when you have that kind of a scrap price drop, it certainly has an impact on our scrap operations. So yes, we've seen improvement in our DRI performance and the performance of our DRI plant. But the raw material has suffered as a result of the – our scrap operations.
R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President:
And just to be clear, Jorge, this is Joe Stratman, the recycling scrap processing side of our business is where that would be. On the brokerage and services side that metallics pricing really doesn't affect a lot of the margin or profitability in that sector.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Thanks very much.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hello, Michael.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hey, good afternoon. Hi. How are you? Just I wanted to...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
(48:14)
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good, good. I wanted to follow-up on one of your comments earlier on trade in terms of someone was asking about putting recent numbers into the trade case decision. Since the coated antidumping, this preliminary decision was pushed back from November to I think December 21. I mean what is the time period in which they'll be looking at data? From what to what period?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well as a general statement they're looking at data today. But frankly it'll be mostly into December, into the first quarter where they'll be doing their analysis. We do expect to have some kind of a rulings on the coated sometime in the first quarter. And probably hot-rolled and cold-rolled would be a little bit later than that. Towards – some time towards the latter part of the first quarter in terms of getting the final determinations. Is that what you're asking?
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Well I was saying that the – I thought the preliminary decision on the first case, the coated case, was due out on December 21. And I'm just asking, there must be some period of time in which they look at data to decide what the decision is.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well first of all – if you're asking is that data being considered now? Is that's the question? I'm sorry I'm not following you.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Well is current data, current market activity right now being considered in the decision?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. Yes.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And when do they cut off? Okay we're going to stop looking at data and we're going to – for the decision?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well remember that we get to testify during the final argument so to speak before the determination is made. Clearly we will bring up pricing today, pricing between now and the time of the hearings and the final – excuse me, the testimony in the final hearings. And all of that will be submitted and be considered.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
But you're still expecting the preliminary coated decisions on anti-dumping to be out as they're saying right now on December 21? Or are you saying you think it's going to be later?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It's actually just the – for the AD case it's actually December 30 to be specific. And for the countervailing duty case it has been extended out to November 2.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Right. And last question just again on trade. Are there any similarities between now and back at the end of 2001 in the Chinese hot-rolled case, where Chinese have basically been locked out of hot-rolled since then with a 90% tariff?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
There are some similarities. And actually the way that it differs is that the amount of hot-rolled and all steel products that China is exporting today, compared to where it was back then, has increased by a magnitude of I don't know, 10 [times], 20 [times], 30% – times rather. It's just unbelievable. But they're talking about exporting. I think the number year to date that's coming out of China somewhere around 72 million tons year to date. It's expected to go up to over 100 million tons this year. Bearing in mind that the entire U.S. market is 100 million tons, that's a ridiculous amount to be exported out of one country. And it's a direct consequence of their building a tremendous amount of overcapacity in China. So yeah, there's some similarities in the sense that they're flooding the market today. They flooded the market then. And we will be aggressive in pursuing cases against them today as we were back in 2000.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, John.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Hi, good afternoon. First, could you provide some color as to the integration of Nucor Steel Gallatin? Given that it was about a year ago around this date that the acquisition was completed, has the contribution of Gallatin fallen in line with your expectations? And then also in terms of the virgin iron units at Gallatin, are those being supplied via imported material or via DRI produced in-house?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well first of all I have to say no to the first part of your question. The integration is not going as we expected it to go. Frankly it's going much, much better. And we knew going into that – into the acquisition that we had a lot of similarities in our culture. And clearly cultural compatibility is very high on our list of targets that we look to acquire. And all I can say – and I hope our teammates in Gallatin are listening – those guys have done a great job coming up to speed. They are doing a great job of integrating and simulating into the Nucor culture. We share a lot of similar cultural traits. And in one area frankly – and I want to thank them for this. In one area they helped us get a whole lot better. And that was in the area of safety. Safety performance before the acquisition was outstanding, their commitment to working safe is phenomenal. And the way they run their safety programs is phenomenal. And we've learned quite a bit from them. So despite the fact that Gallatin is operating today in an extremely tough market. The energy, which is a big product coming out of Gallatin, as you know has been really, really challenged. But our teammates are doing what we always do at Nucor, and that is finding new ways, new products. One example would be that they are working hard to qualify for automotive products. And we expect them to be successful in that attempt. And all I can say is it is without a doubt going much better than we anticipated. And one other comment to your question about the where are they getting their raw materials from? Obviously on the scrap side there's a lot of synergies with our DJJ operations right up the road is River Metals (55:00). And in scrap substitutes today, they are taking scrap substitutes in. We are working to modify the plant so that it can accept DRI out of our Louisiana plant. And we expect that to be up and running some time the end of next year, first part of 2017, the DRI.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
16 months to 18 months.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Somewhere around 16 months to 18 months.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay great. Thanks. And then as a second question could you provide an update on where you stand with the high cost iron ore inventory position you've been digesting at the Louisiana DRI facility? And then what portion of the $28 million of losses at Nucor Steel Louisiana were driven by that particular factor during the quarter?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well let me start off by saying that this is the second time in your one question where you've made me smile. Question about Gallatin made me smile about how well that has gone. And I'm smiling now, because I can tell you we have completely digested the higher cost iron ore. We've worked our way completely through that. And so the second part of your question was of the $28 million loss in the quarter. Now first of all I would suggest that the number is actually closer to...
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
$20 million.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
$20 million because of the impact. Jim, you want to jump in on the impact of the $7 million?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Yeah. We had some raw material iron ore storage domes that we made a decision that we were not going to continue to use. And so we had an asset write-down for I think just under $8 million. But, John, I think his question is of the $20 million loss, how much was driven by higher cost iron ore. And I don't think we have that number...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
...at our finger tips.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We don't have that number. I don't think.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
But they did finish using the iron ore that was on hand.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
There might be a little trace amount left, but not anything notable.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. And I – one of the things that if you'll – another reason why I'm smiling to be honest with you is that our Louisiana plant was cash positive for the last 2 months, and that's a significant improvement. Now they will continue to be challenged given the current pricing of raw materials in general. That's going to be a challenging operation for a while. As I said earlier we don't expect it to be a grand slam in this pricing environment. But long term we have a great deal of confidence that it was a good investment and will pay large dividends over the long run.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Much appreciated. Congrats on a solid quarter.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hi, good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
A question on the automotive business and just want to understand where we are in terms of the kind of the absolute tonnage penetration? And maybe if you could give us a breakout of products within that number, whether it be cold finish bar, hot band, SBQ, cold rolled? Just kind of a general thought process here. And then how you're looking to grow that market going forward?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. That's a great question. It's an area that we're very proud of the way that we've been able to grow that business. When you ask about specific shipment rates, in 2015 we are on track to ship at a rate of about 1.4 million tons a year. And that's about a 20% improvement over where we were last year. In terms of a breakdown between sheet and cold finish, today about 85% of our products going into automotive are in sheet products, and 15% coming out of some form of SBQ or cold finish. And in terms of where we want to go the sky is the limit ultimately. But over the next 2 years to 3 years we are confident that we will be able to grow that business to a rate of about 2 million tons of shipments per year going into automotive.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. I – 2 million [tons] is what you said. Okay. I appreciate that. And then...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We want grow it to 2 million [tons]. Okay? Over the next 2 years to 3 years. Beyond that we will continue to grow in that market, as we will continue to grow in all high quality, higher valued, and more import resistant products.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then just in terms of what your feelers are out there on non-residential construction and what those are telling you. What's the read at this point in time? Just noticing the fabrication, I think volumes were down a little bit year on year. Any sense of why that's the case? Just trying to get a better feel for your view of non-res and what your indicators are telling you right now.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well I would start off by saying that we do think that the rate of growth in non-residential construction as we measure it in square footage has slowed. At the beginning of the year we were anticipating somewhere about an 8% or 9% growth over the course of the year. Today, we would say that that number is probably closer to 5% or 6% today. So we do see the rate of increase, the rate of growth, slowing as the year has progressed. Now, when I look at our business in particular, Nucor's business and our downstream businesses, what's frankly going to the non-residential construction. And we're feeling pretty good about our backlogs. Our backlogs today in all three of our downstream businesses – Vulcraft, Verco, building systems, and Harris – our backlogs are the largest they have been, the strongest they have been in a 10-year period. And when you couple that with the profitability that we talked about earlier, we've had a very good quarter for our downstream businesses. Although we see the rate of improvement slowing, we still feel pretty good about our downstream businesses and their ability to compete in the construction market.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Well in terms of the shipments, John, was that year-over-year comparison a bit negative because maybe there was some overbuying in Q1, and you need a quarter to level that out?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Yeah.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Because your backlog is pretty strong from what you're saying right now?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. And it's hard to take a look at – that's a business that – those projects are long-term projects, some of them spanning several years. So as you look at the length of time, it becomes cyclical. The order entry rate becomes cyclical. The shipping rates will become cyclical. So it's hard to look at any one particular quarter and compare it to another particular period of time. You've got to really look at the overall order entry rate and the backlogs. And that's what we use to track how we see the business performing.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then I have one high level political/philosophical question, and then I'll jump off. I guess first your thoughts on a long-term highway bill, and if you see any light at the end of the tunnel there. And then in terms of the TPP are you (1:02:35 – 1:02:37) concerned if that's – are you concerned if that measure is passed without any further safeguards like FX manipulation? Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well I'll start with that one. But I would like to address both of them. We are absolutely concerned about TPP passing in its present form. Now, remember we all, all of us, have not yet gotten a chance to take a look at the complete document. So I'm not going to say whether or not we would favor it or we would struggle with it, until we have an opportunity to read and study the entire document, which we have not had at this time. That said, I will say that we are extremely, extremely disappointed that it's not – that currency manipulation is not more strongly baked into that agreement. At the end of the day you can have all kinds of trade agreements and if a country manipulates its currency, it's guaranteed to have an unfair trade advantage. And so we have – what we are insisting upon with TPP is that it does, as it's promising to do, and that is to provide a more level playing field, on which we can compete. We at Nucor are absolutely convinced that if we were given a level playing field to compete upon, we would compete successfully against any company or any country in the world. So we're taking a hard look at TPP before we come out with a definitive statement, but you are absolutely correct in saying that currency manipulation not being a part of that agreement makes us really struggle about the impact it will have on our company, the impact it'll have on our industry, the impact it'll have on manufacturing in the United States, and the impact most importantly that it'll have upon middle class Americans working hard to make a living and to make a better life for themselves and their family. So you got a little philosophical. So did I. Okay? Now to infrastructure. Once again I have to say that I'm disappointed in the administration and frankly in Congress in not taking advantage of what I consider a great opportunity. Right now, steel costs are down. What a time to focus on rebuilding our infrastructure. Okay? Energy. Okay? How important is energy in our – going forward in a manufacturing world and for our country frankly? What a great time to be able to rebuild our energy infrastructure, our power grids. And frankly, with the price of oil where it is today and the resulting price of gasoline at the pump, it seems to me like this would be a great time to be able to – and I know this is politically unpopular, but I'm not running for office so I can say it. Okay? This would be a great time to just put a little bump onto the tax of the tax rate on gasoline and use that money to rebuild the crumbling infrastructure of this country. What an embarrassment. 30 years, 40 years, 50 years ago, we were – our country was known for its infrastructure. People came here to study how we build bridges. And today you look at it. And overall our bridges, our infrastructure as a whole just recently received a D-plus. And they were bragging on the fact that it wasn't really D, it was D-plus. Okay? We don't need infrastructure – if we're going to have a manufacturing powerhouse in the 21st century, we need infrastructure that gets an A-plus, not a D-plus. This is a great opportunity to rebuild our infrastructure. I'm extremely disappointed that we continue to kick the can down the road on funding with three-month extensions after extension after extension. I believe that there's something like 33 or 34 three-month extensions since 2008. That's an embarrassment. And I really hope that our leaders step up to the plate and do not miss this great opportunity to rebuild the infrastructure in this country.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, John. Amen.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Brian Yu with Citi. Please go ahead.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thanks. Good afternoon, John, Jim. Just piggybacking off Phil's question earlier on the auto side. With the growth to 2 million tons is that related for equipment upgrade and qualifications or is that more marketing in terms of you're getting Nucor product onto the next auto build?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Well clearly, the way that we have been able to grow our automotive presence has been through investments in our company. The vacuum-tank degassers throughout all of our sheet mills, the wide, light project at Berkeley that – the work that we've done and the advances that we have made in our advanced high strength steels, those have opened the doors for us in growing our automotive presence. And I also have to say that the automotive companies recognizing the long-term sustainability of Nucor and the quality and service that we've been able to provide for them, have attracted them and given us the opportunity to grow in those areas. In terms of your specific question relative to how we see it growing over the next 2 years, the answer to that would be a yes. We're basing that upon qualifications that we've already – have been through and have passed and qualified for applications in future platforms and commitments that have been made to us on future platforms. So we are confident in that projection of 2 million tons to 3 million tons. I would also add just one more thing on that is you mentioned the commercial and marketing. We recognize the need to improve our marketing into automotive. And to that end we've established a sales office right in Detroit. It's the first time Nucor has had a sales office located in Detroit. We've named a sales manager to oversee automotive specifically. And this is an extremely experienced guy with a lot of years in the service. And again we're confident that we will be able to commit the – we will be able to fulfill the commitment that I'm making to you and that our commercial team has made to me that we will get to 2 million tons over the next 2 years to 3 years.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Great. Thanks for the detail. And then second one, on natural gas, I know you guys have stopped drilling with Encana there for a couple years. Could you give us an update on how you're positioned there? With the wells declining how are you looking at 2016? Any need or desire to hedge out your gas exposure?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Right now given the pricing that we're seeing in natural gas and that we expect to continue through 2016, we don't see any significant change in our drilling program. There might be a couple of wells that we might have to drill in order to maintain the leases on the property. And we would want to do that. We've got some great property there, and we want to maintain the leases on those properties. But frankly I don't see us changing our drilling program at this time. And in terms of hedging we feel confident that we see natural gas pricing remaining low for at least next year. And so we're pretty comfortable with our gas positions.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Is there a meaningful earnings impact from those wells decline...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Can you repeat that? I didn't catch the last part of that.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Yeah. With gas at $2.40, $2.50, I'm wondering how does that compare with your share of the offtake from those natural gas wells? And as those wells decline and produce less, and you're buying more from the open market, is there a perceivable difference in the cost of the two that we could see an earnings impact?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
The wells are incurring a very small loss right now, but they're actually cash flow positive. So it's not meaningful.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That was Jim Frias.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Now is that the end of the questions?
Operator:
Yes. This does conclude today's question-and-answer session. For closing remarks I'd like to turn the conference back to Mr. John Ferriola for any closing remarks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Well let me conclude by saying thank you to our shareholders for your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We truly appreciate your business. We know that without you there would be no us. And I want to say thank you to my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders, and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly thank you all for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP Raymond S. Napolitan - Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc. Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC David Gagliano - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research Scott Nicholls - Bishop Rosen & Co Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Second Quarter of 2015 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's websites. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speaks only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them either as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Thanks, John. Second quarter of 2015 earnings of $0.39 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.20 to $0.25 per diluted share. Second quarter results included a benefit of approximately $0.03 per diluted share related to state tax credits that largely arose from recently completed capital investment projects. Those state tax credits were not factored into our guidance for the quarter. Overall, the second quarter outperformance resulted from better-than-expected shipments and margins at our steel mills segment. Effective execution, Nucor's channel-to-market strategy is driving strong relative performance at both our bar and beam mills. Also, our sheet and plate businesses are benefiting from recent investments allowing us to expand our offerings on value-added and higher-margin products in more demanding and import resistant applications. Our downstream product segment continues to capitalize on the slow but steady growth in non-residential construction markets. Segment profitability for the first six months of 2015 was more than double the first half of 2014. Backlogs are also higher over year-ago levels for all three of our major fabricated construction products, joist and decking, rebar fabrication and metal buildings. As measured by square footage, we expect U.S. non-residential construction activity in 2015 to increase by approximately 5% to 6% from 2014 levels. The second quarter of 2015 performance of our raw materials segment included an operating loss at our new DRI facility in Louisiana for approximately $20 million. That was down from the first quarter operating loss of approximately $44 million. The quarter-over-quarter improvement resulted from the strong output achieved following last quarter's restart of production and a vendor product warranty payment of approximately $10 million. Nucor Steel Louisiana second quarter results included a negative impact of consuming higher cost iron ore inventory that was acquired in 2014. As we disclosed in our first quarter conference call, we expect to finish working through those higher cost raw materials by the close of the third quarter. A quick comment about our tax rate since it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. After adjusting our profits belonging to our business partners and the $9.3 million benefit related to state tax credits, the effective tax rate was 36.4% for the second quarter. Nucor continued to generate very robust operating cash flow during the extremely challenging first half of 2015. With our highly variable and low-cost structure, we benefit from significant reductions to working capital during downturns. That was the case again in the first half of 2015 with cash provided by operations of approximately $1.2 billion, a dramatic increase from the year-ago first half's operating cash flow of $443 million. Nucor's strong through-the-cycle operating cash flow generation allows us to invest in attractive opportunities during periods of industry distress when the long-term returns are most attractive and to continue rewarding our shareholders with immediate returns in the form of base dividends that increased for 42 consecutive years. Here's the number that help explain our cash generation is such an important competitive strength supporting our team's focus on profitable long-term growth. Over the past four quarters, Nucor has generating cash from operations totaling $2.1 billion. During that period that cash flow has enabled us to fund the acquisition at Gallatin Steel for about $779 million, paid cash dividends to shareholders of $477 million, invest in capital expenditures of $381 million, and increase our liquidity. In this time of unprecedented industry turmoil, our focus is not on survival, but on growing the long-term value of our shareholders' investment. Nucor's financial position remained strong. Our gross debt to capital ratio was 36% at the close of the second quarter. Cash and short-term investments totaled $1.7 billion, putting our net debt-to-capital ratio at approximately 26%. Our next significant debt maturity is not until December 2017. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. That facility does not mature until August of 2018. Nucor is the only North American steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. The first six months of 2015 capital expenditures totaled $163 million. We estimate full year 2015 capital spending will be approximately $450 million. Most of our recent larger scale organic growth investments have been completed or are nearing completion. Depreciation and amortization for 2015 is expected to total about $700 million. Earnings in the third quarter of 2015 are expected to be improved from second quarter. The steel segment should benefit from beginning the quarter with lower cost inventories. Our steel products segment is expected to benefit from continuing gradual improvement in non-residential construction activity. We are confident Nucor's significant competitive advantages and highly adaptable business model will allow our team to continue to execute our proven strategies for delivering profitable, long-term growth and shareholder returns. We do appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jim. Nucor's long-term success has been achieved by focusing on a simple strategy. Nucor capitalizes on its unrivaled position of strength to gain profitable market share in our core businesses of steel and steel products, throughout the economic cycle. The anchors to our strategy and its execution are these very powerful competitive strengths of Nucor. Nucor is a low cost producer of steel and steel products. Importantly, we work to drive continual improvement in our cost structure. Nucor's financial strength is unparalleled in the North American steel industry. Nucor generates robust operating cash flow throughout the cyclical ups and downs that are inevitable part of the steel business. Nucor is the market leader in 9 of the 11 largest markets where we compete. Market leadership matters as we are able to earn higher margins by providing the broadest mix of products and services to our customers. Nucor's channel to the market strategy allows our steel mills to increase their penetration of higher margin and higher value-added products in a global steel market burdened with irrational excess capacity resulting from foreign, government subsidies. Nucor's raw material strategies execution has positioned us with greater flexibility to take advantage of the lowest cost feedstock of making steel in a commodity business characterized by high volatility and input costs. The steel industry has seen some very tough times over the past nearly seven years stretching back to the fall of 2008. While Nucor certainly does not welcome tough times in our business, we do not fear them. In fact, we use them to our advantage to grow stronger. I am pleased to report that Nucor's position of strength has improved during this protracted steel industry downturn. Since 2008, Nucor has invested almost $6 billion to expand our portfolios of higher margin products and to improve our relative cost position. Given the growth in our earnings capacity and the strength of the steel market demand in the U.S., we believe our profitability will challenge and possibly exceed our 2008 record earnings level, were it not for the tsunami of illegally traded imports that are overwhelming domestic steel industry. Nevertheless, a very initial payoff from these investments already can be seen in our current results. Here are some examples. Nucor's market leading long products businesses achieved year-over-year growth in profitability for both the second quarter and first half of 2015 despite significant marketplace pressures resulting from imports. The keys to this performance were market leadership positions in our vertically integrated channel to the market strategy. Our bar mills benefited from a strong channels to market provided by our downstream businesses. These downstream channels to the market include, our market leading vulcraft, verco, joists and deck operations, our Harris steel rebar fabrication business, our market leading cold finish bar business, our market leading pre-engineered metal buildings business and a few others. Our Nucor-Yamato structural steel metal delivered a particularly strong performance in the second quarter. This performance is evidence of the strong partnerships Nucor-Yamato has built with its fabricated customers. Also, the market leading teams at Nucor-Yamato and Skyline Steel continue to grow profitable market share for us in the steel pilings market. Nucor-Yamato expects to grow its wider piling sections annual volume to 100,000 tons over the next few years. These products were introduced to the marketplace earlier this year and received their first export order in the second quarter. The automotive market continues to be an attractive growth opportunity for Nucor. Our sheet and engineered bar businesses are on track in 2015 to increase their combined automotive volume by more than 20% to approximately 1.4 million tons, and there was more growth ahead, as our goal is to reach an annual shipment rate of 2 million tons for the automotive market within the next two years to three years. As always, our focus is on profitable growth in our automotive book of business created by our ability to provide unique value-added products and services. Nucor's recent and significant investments to have our sheet and engineered bar mill groups are driving our growing market share in these higher margin and more import resistant products. Our Nucor Steel Berkeley Sheet Mill continues to build momentum in the second quarter with its very successful rollout of new wide light products. Berkeley expects to ship 200,000 tons of these new products this year, allowing it to gain market share with a number of important heavy equipment, service center and automotive customers. Completed in 2014, the wide light modernization capital project has positioned Berkeley with the lightest hot-rolled gauge capability of any sheet mill in the Southern U.S. market, and with a finished product width of up to 72 inches. Our raw material strategy is a critical foundation, supporting Nucor's growing participation in the higher value-added and higher-margin products. During the second quarter, our Louisiana direct reduced iron plant successfully ramped up following its five-month shutdown to make major equipment improvements. Louisiana produced approximately 540,000 tons of DRI in the second quarter of 2015 with its usual world-class quality levels. Louisiana has been a challenging startup as was our plant in Trinidad that started up in 2007. It is worth noting that the challenges in Trinidad was somewhat masked by a dramatically different raw materials pricing environment. Despite recent challenges, our confidence has never been high regarding the long-term value of Nucor owning DRI production capability. It puts Nucor in an unrivaled position of flexibility in optimizing our iron units cost due to the cycle. During the second quarter, major progress was achieved in the work done by Nucor and other producers to fight back against the tsunami of illegally traded steel imports coming into the United States. Imports were 32% of all steel sold in this country in the first six months of this year. That is up from a 27% market share for the year ago period and from slightly above 20% of the market in 2009. I am very pleased to report that we scored two significant victories recently. Congress on a bipartisan basis adopted important trade remedy provisions, champion by the U.S. steel industry as part of a package of trade bills. By passing this legislation, Congress has given our industry more effective tools to fight back against unfairly and illegally traded steel imports. These changes were a long overdue. The U.S. trade laws have not been updated for over 20 years. The Nucor team applauds Congress and the administration by taking a much tougher line with countries that break the law and destroy the economic vitality of our country. These new trade laws alone will not address the underlying issue, the systemic global steel overcapacity resulting from a trade assorting practices of some foreign governments. It is time for the World Trading Community to take firm actions to stop these countries from dumping their steel and force them to comply with World Trade Organization rules. As has always been the case, Nucor will not hesitate to file a trade case if the evidence warrants such action. During the second quarter, we joined five other steel makers in filing a trade case against India, China, Italy, Korea and Taiwan for dumping and providing significant subsidies to producers of corrosion resistant steel. We are pleased that last week the U.S. International Trade Commission made a preliminary affirmative determination, allowing the case to proceed. Nucor will continue to assess market conditions in other products market – in other product markets and pursue cases when appropriate. Our fight against illegally traded steel imports is essential to meeting our responsibility to be an effective steward of our shareholders' valuable capital. In closing, I am extremely confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Every time I visit a Nucor facility and spend time with my team mates, I am reminded why I have absolute confidence that Nucor's future is extremely bright. It's because of the quality and commitment of the men and women who serve together with me on the Nucor team. They are truly the best, they are truly the right people, they will get the job done. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. We would now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. We'll go first to Luke Folta with Jefferies. Sir, your line is open.
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, first question I had was on non-res. We saw a bit of slowing in terms of – well, I mean, you saw really nice year-over-year growth in joist, deck and rebar fab last year in the first quarter. And that seemed to have dropped off quite a bit in 2Q and similar things out of Steel Dynamics' downstream business yesterday with volumes. The commentary still seems pretty positive around non-res. Can you just give us some sense of what's going on in terms of the shipment levels?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, let me start with the overall markets. The pundits are still saying that they expect a 7% to 8% increase in non-res this year over last year. We think that number is a little bit optimistic. We see it close to be being around 5% to 6% this year in non-residential construction. As far as our downstream businesses go, we're seeing some very positive things. Our backlogs are stronger than they have ever been. Frankly, the pricing of the products in our backlog are stronger than we've seen in quite some time. So, although we see things over the course of the year slowing a little bit more compared to last year, was still pretty optimistic about non-residential construction and our downstream businesses going into it.
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. All right. Just on the trade side, the language that went with the TPA bill here recently, how big of a deal do you think that is? And when you, I guess, think about the impact for imports, is it fair to say that Nucor probably has more upside than the industry as a whole in terms of – if there is a change in a way import protection is – if the enforcement approves here, do you think that there is more upside just given your southern presence? And I think I would guess that more of your business enters into the spot market than maybe some of your integrated peers to the north. So any commentary around that would be helpful.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, let me respond in general, we think that there's tremendous upside, I won't compare it to any of our competitors, but for us, we are very optimistic about potential upside. We're very positive about the language in the legislation. Clearly gives us much stronger tools to fight back against unfair trade. Just to mention maybe a couple of the things that it does for us, number one is it changes the definition of injury, it gives the International Trade Commission, a much broader list of factors when determining whether an industry has been injured, not just profitability, that's important. It will no longer be necessary for us to suffer severe financial damage before action can be taken. Another provision enhances the commerce's department – excuse me, the commerce department's discretion in dealing with foreign companies and foreign governments that are un-corporative or very slow to provide the information they need to make a determination. So although I have to say that this is a very positive first step, there is more work to be done. And we believe that this will create a much more balanced and fair marketplace competition here in the United States, but there is still work to be done. So we will continue to work in Washington with our elected officials and continue to press for even stronger trade laws in the future.
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC:
If I could ask one more just on the raw material segment outlook. The Louisiana plant seems like it's ramping up very nicely. Heading into 3Q, you're not going to have the Trinidad outage and I would think that the headwind from the high cost raw materials would be lesser quarter-on-quarter. Just trying to get a sense of why we're still looking for a flat outcome in that business quarter-to-quarter.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, Trinidad will do better. As you mentioned, we won't have the shut down there. In the case of Louisiana, it will probably be towards the end of the third quarter by the time we work through all of the high priced inventory and the reason that it might be the same, even with the improvement in Trinidad is that we won't see the same impact as we did with the $10 million payment on a vendor liability.
Luke Folta - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll go next to Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hey, good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon, Evan. How are you?
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Doing well, thanks. Just a couple of follow-ups on the trade front. So I was just wondering, so the rules now changed as far as injury definition goes. Does that mean that some of the trade cases that people have been working on for the past, I guess, year-plus now on hot-rolled, cold-rolled that we haven't really seen yet, do they have to be rewritten to kind of match the new rules? Is that going to cause some sort of a delay?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Now, frankly just the opposite. As we go forward and we press for any potential cases that we might file in the future, what will happen is the new law will apply to them. So it will not cause delays. If anything, just the opposite will happen. Now the countries that we would potentially file against will be required to submit the data faster. They will not have the same list of reasons for not getting the data in, in a timely manner. And as we look at the pressing the point of whether there was an injury or not, there's a different set of guidelines that will be used. So certainly this will not cause any delay. If anything we expect it to speed up the process in cases that we press in the future.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great, thanks. And then, from what I understand, there's actually some additional trade protection that we could see coming out of the customs bill that's in conference right now on the enforcement front. And I understand the language is a little bit different on the Senate side versus the House side on enforcement. And for some of us on the outside who are trying to follow this, maybe you have some insights there that could help us. Is there any particular language that we should be looking at that you really want to see passed in this custom's bill? Or is there any language that makes you a little bit more nervous or cautious? Any color there would be helpful.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, let me start by saying that we're not going to comment on what the outcome will be in Washington. We will work hard with our elected officials to get an outcome that's favorable to the industry. Beyond that, I don't want to say too much. It's an ongoing phase. We don't want to say too much about that at this point.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay, fair enough. And then, maybe one last question on raw materials as well, just trying to get a sense for modeling Louisiana going forward as far as the flow through on the timing for iron ore inventory, and I fully understand that you had quite a bit of outages, hiccups getting this project started and that obviously stretched out the amount of iron ore you had on the ground probably considerably. But once things normalize, how much iron ore inventory would you normally have on the ground? And how quickly should we model in price change on the iron ore through your earnings?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, remember as you factor in your AFL, think about the fact that we buy iron ore on a contract basis and then we pay for the previous quarter, but there is always a one-quarter delay between what you're seeing going through the furnace and what you'd purchased. Always make sure you put that time delay in there as you go forward. We use about 4 million tons a year, so in terms of keeping the inventory on the ground, we probably have maybe one month.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
One month.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. About 1 million tons we keep on the ground, probably about 25% of our annual use.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. That's super helpful. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
Hi. John, you made a comment your backlogs are stronger than you've seen in some time. Structural rebar and joist in Q2 were all flat to down, so I'm just wondering is the backlog stronger now than it was at the end of Q1? And do you think that's a result of underlying demand uplift? Or is it more imports sort of easing off? Or is it a combo of the two?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Ray, why don't you take that?
Raymond S. Napolitan - Executive Vice President:
Sure. Good afternoon. This is Ray Napolitan. I would say our downstream backlogs are up as a combination of several things, but improved underlying demand and overall the slow growth of the non-res market, plus the worsen delayed shipments in the first quarter, first half of the year due to weather, but overall the team is doing a good job in increasing our backlog levels and in both – well, for the second half of the year, for all three of our major downstream products.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
Okay, thanks. And then, I guess, the one other question is when you talk about the flexibility DRI offers, and I appreciate it, it probably plays a role with helping the current pricing environment in the scrap market. But presumably the flexibility means you run it hard when scrap prices are high, and you maybe don't focus on it as much when they're low. So I'm wondering how you're thinking about your raw material strategy as iron ore spirals and maybe we see some more weakness coming in scrap.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, you are exactly right. It gives us the ability to switch back and forth in which area we want to press, whether it's in scrap or whether it's in DRI, depending upon what the cost of the iron unit is. At the end of the day, an iron unit is an iron unit. What it does is it gives us the ` to change and modify our feedstock mix, so that we can optimize our mix base upon current pricing in the different commodities. It gives us a lot of flexibility. We have pig iron out there, now we have HBI which gives us DRI. We have scrap that's under our control. So we have a lot of flexibility, but we'll drive the decision on where we're focusing is the price of the iron unit in each one of those areas.
Matt Murphy - UBS Securities Canada, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Yeah, good afternoon, guys. How are you, guys?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon. How are you?
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
All righty, thanks. So two big areas I wanted to touch on. One is we've heard so much about flat rolled and improvements expected there, but we were kind of surprised the year-over-year declines in bar structurals and plate. So just wanted to drill down a little bit more, if you could provide some information on how much of that might be destocking imports or underlying demand?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I can tell you that it's underlying demand in the United States it's very, very strong, but that's not the issue. The issue isn't demand, it's on the supply side. And the fact that the imports are coming in so heavy, which I'm sure you know Timna they captured about 32% of the steel market today and although that we're looking at – again, I'm talking about the whole market there. Although we're looking at demand levels that are probably just about the same as last year, the import level has gone up from 27% to about 32% to 33%. So demand is not the issue. Demand is strong, but imports are taking a much bigger bite out of our potential long product business. When I talk about 32% to 33%, that's across all of our products. When you look at – you mentioned beams specifically, so I'll comment on that. Imports are up 33% in beams year-over-year. That's a huge increase. So the short answer to your question, demand is strong. We see good demand. We believe it will grow moderately throughout the rest of the year. The issue is not the imports – and I stress the issue is actually not the imports, the issue is illegally unfairly traded imports.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay, got you. The other question I want to ask is on huge amount of free cash flow in the first half of the year. And I know that Jim stressed the importance of your cash generation as a competitive strength. And not to pick on you, but you did point out that DRI is obviously less attractive in the current commodity environment that none of us forecasted, and I get that. But can you talk to us a little bit about how you can deploy that capital going forward in ways that we can be confident will grow the business? In light of the fact that you've already done a lot of investments to grow organically, do you start to steer maybe toward other uses of cash going forward?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I would say that our first goal is always to invest to grow our business. Now we believe that there's still a lot of opportunity to do that, and we would focus on areas that brought value-added higher margin products, investments that we've made similar to what we did at Hertford County with the heat treat and the normalizing line. Investments that we've made in SBQ, investments that we made at Berkeley with the wildlife project, the investments that we made with the wider piling sections, and all of these cases were at focusing on investments on higher margin products that are also more important resistant. Although we're taking it light, we feel good about the action that's being taken in Washington to fade off these illegally traded products. The focus that we have is to continue to work to better insulate Nucor from that flood of imports and the way to do that is to focus on those value-added products. A great example that I can give you, Timna, is all the work that we're doing on our advanced high-strengths steels that go into the automotive market. I mentioned how we've gone in that over the last couple of years. As a product because of the quality requirements and because of the just in time delivery requirements, that's not easily imported. So that's an area of focus for us. I'd also like to speak a little bit more about the continued investment in lowering our total cost of production. You mentioned that I referenced that our DRI production, given the current environment, is not as attractive as we thought it might have been at one point. But I do want to point out that it's still attractive. If you take a look, the issue we're working on right through is the short time, but we have this iron ore that's higher price. But if you took a look at the cost of our – our conversion cost today and you apply the market price to iron units coming out of iron ore today, our all-in costs will be under what we would have to be paying for other forms of low residual products like pig iron and prime scrap. So it's still valuable investment. The question is whether it's a good investment or whether it's a great investment. In today's pricing environment, it's a good investment. In tough pricing environment of iron units where we were a year-and-a-half ago, it would be a great investment. And trust me, given the cyclical nature of our business, it will be a great investment again in the future. So I wanted to be clear of that so that, should we move forward with investing further in some form of DRI or blast furnace projects, everyone understands that we had a short term issue, we're dealing with it, it will pass; long term, we still believe very strongly in this strategy. At the end of the day, we look at it this way. The amount of iron ore in the world is virtually unlimited. The amount of scrap in the world is much more limited and we can generate more iron ore by reinvesting in extraction techniques. It's tough to generate more scrap and we see that – frankly, we see the amount of scrap being generated in United States has declined.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. The point of my question wasn't to belabor the DRI issue because those are all good points, and I understand that. I guess, the point of my question was to try to ask if the use of this cash to protect against imports has been the primary source or use of cash over the last several years, and yet the benefit of those uses has yet to show up. Do you start to think about more direct return to shareholders to deploy that capital in a more direct way?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We always look at all options. And we look at the potential investments that we can make in our business and if we believe that they're good investments to make and how we believe that they bring long-term earnings to our shareholders that's the direction we'll take. On the other hand, if we don't see them out there, we will consider all other options.
Timna Beth Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yes, good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
How much sheet capability do you have left for the third quarter?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That might be a different way of asking what's our utilization rate in sheet, is that where you're going?
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Well, I just want to say, even beyond your stated capacity, how much more volume could you put out into the marketplace in sheet in the third quarter versus the second?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let's see how I can answer that without getting too specific here. How much more we put out? Listen, we could certainly put out several more million tons. And you are talking about just for the quarter – just for the third quarter?
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, just in the quarter. Just on a quarterly basis.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We could probably improve it about 20%.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
20%. So, I mean, with your relative cost advantage with scrap where it has come down to, is it just a question of letting the import supplies dry up in the marketplace?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, there's several things. Certainly that would help. It's also the issue of allowing the inventories in our warehouses continue to come down. It's a function that you look at our business in where was our product going? How those markets performed? Obviously, we talked about our increased participation in the automotive market and that's a strong market. We talked about non-residential construction and clearly lot of all of our products, including sheet were going to non-residential construction and we see that picking up. But on the other hand, we also have a lot of products that goes into oil-related products such as OCTG and that's obviously struggling right now, we don't see that changing for the rest of the year. So, we see some of the markets that we sell into – our sheet products into as continuing to get better and we see others that will continue to struggle. But overall as we look at the third quarter and fourth quarter, what we could put into that, another 20% to 25%, whether we'll be able to do that will be a function of what happens and how quickly it happens with trade cases, or potential trade cases on hot-rolled and on cold-rolled products, how quickly that impacts the imports coming in. That, of course, will also help drive how quickly the warehouse inventories deplete. But at the end of the day, I will say that I believe that we will be making more and more progress against imports. I feel really good about this recent legislation and the impact that's going to have short-term and long-term in our business. And so, as I look forward to the rest of the year, we do have, as a company, we're heavily weighted on the hot band side. Sometimes that's a real advantage, sometimes it's not. Right now we're in markets where that's not advantage but that will turn around also. So I feel good about where we're going, I feel good about the import situation and the impact that'll have on the markets.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
When you think about market share, in the long products part of your business, everyone is subject to the same raw material cost issue, scrap basically in an open market. But in the other half of your business, pretty much in the sheet business, you have maybe 35% of the market is scrap-based and the other 65% is iron ore-based and that's where you can get a real advantage in terms of market share pick up. How much market share in the sheet business did you pick up in the second quarter? And then can you talk about what you think you can do in the back half of the year?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You mean pick up because of the cost advantages in the DRI?
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
The DRI and the scrap business, just scrap prices coming down relative to iron ore in the last several months.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Versus the integrated scrap. I think he is thinking versus integrated.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, versus integrated.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I would have to almost answer that on a product-by-product basis. I mean, if we were to look at automotive, we think that we will pick up some market share in automotive. In construction, we feel good about our ability to pick up 2%, 3%, 4% in construction. And as I mentioned earlier, in some of our other markets, we think they'll continue to struggle.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Because I think you had about a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter in your sheet shipments and one of your other – your primary competitor, in terms of mini mill, Steel Dynamics, had about a 24% increase in sheet shipments quarter-over-quarter. So clearly both you guys are gaining share in the sheet business versus the integrateds and imports. I was just wondering, how much more share do you think you can pick up in the back half of the year?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, can I answer that by saying how much would I like to pick up?
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Sure.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm just kidding, but listen, we continuously work against all of our competitors both scrap-based and integrated. I don't want to make any comments in particular against any one of our competitors.
Michael F. Gambardella - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks a lot, John.
Operator:
Up next, we'll go to David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hi. I just – I wanted to just quickly follow up on the DRI math. I think this is right but I just want to make sure. So you mentioned 4 million tons and we don't know the cost of the iron ore inventory on the ground at this point, but is it reasonable to assume it's about $30 a ton higher than current prices?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
The inventory on the ground.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
I'm sorry. Say again, I missed the question.
David Gagliano - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
I'm trying to figure out what the average cost of the iron ore inventory that we've used in the second quarter. What that is relative to the current iron ore market?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
The difference between the higher cost iron ore and the lower cost inventory and this is (47:11) delivered all-in is about $30 ton, $35 a ton.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So you were pretty close.
David Gagliano - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
That's what I needed. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now go to Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hi, thanks. Good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
I had a question, John, on sheet pricing. If we were to assume that sheet price stayed relatively level with where they are now just in terms of the spot market, would you expect that your pricing realizations will be improved in the third quarter relative to second or would we need to see more uplift to get that?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Actually I would say that we see a small amount of improvement.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. I appreciate that. And then in the – and then the M&A landscape, what opportunities are you seeing there, and do you think that there is going to be more consolidation in the industry in the next 6 months, 12 months, 2 years – I mean, is there going to be more consolidation here that we see?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We don't comment on any potential merger or acquisition activity that we're involved in. As a general statement – this has been a long tough period for the industry and in the past, based on historical reference points, we see consolidation occur when you've gone through these tough times. So as a general statement it's possible but i'm not going to make any more comments than that.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then, lastly, you made a comment that Yamato had a pretty, pretty strong quarter. Is that a mix piece or is that a demand element, just anything that you could provide in terms of color there because I saw your structural pricing held up relatively well relative to the first quarter? Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It was a little bit of both to be honest with you. Demand was up a little bit, also mix came into play. As we mentioned, our new filing sections were involved. So mix had something, certainly had a role to play in it. The demand was up a little bit also.
Philip N. Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, John.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now take our question from Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Thanks and good afternoon.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good afternoon, Brian.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hey, John. I got an outlook and then a product question for you on scrap. Scrap price in U.S., it seems like they've come back down to where they were back in February and when that happened back then, we saw a lot of volume dry up. So question is, is there some theoretical or numerical floor to where scrap could go given collection and just cost associated with aggregating it? And then two, how are you guys thinking about the scrap markets in third quarter? I think one of your competitors said, look, we think it's going to go down lower, but you guys are pretty big in it too, just wanted to get your views there too?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I'll start with that one. I think that going into the – we're kind of bearish on scrap prices going forward. We think that into the third quarter, it will – if we say, sideways with some downward pressure. So it will either be down a little bit or sideways, but we think probably down a little bit going into the third quarter. In terms of your first question, I don't think there is a numerical floor as such, but certainly as pricing goes down, again depending on the time of the year also. If it was winter and pricing is going down, a little harder to go out in the field and start tearing apart that old tractor and scrapping it, but in the summer time, nice weather, pricing goes down a little bit, but we don't see any major impact on the flows in our yards, and we don't expect to see it going forward.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. And then second one back to kind of the trade – I know the industry has got to work with the tools and avenues available. I've heard others describe it as trying to herd cats when you're trying to deal with imports coming in. Say, do you lock out coated products from China and other countries. Is there a way to prevent bad Chinese product from finding a home elsewhere in the world depressing those local markets and then we end up getting imports here from another country?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, there certainly is a way, and it's actually happening today, and that is other countries react much quickly to the flood of imports than we do, and they apply the appropriate tariffs and duties in a much quicker manner. So it's not a case of whether or not there is going to be product substitution going on and where that end up going. They have learned the lesson of what's been going on, and they're reacting quicker. The recent legislation is going to give us not quite the same speed, but it is going to improve our ability to deal with that issue by dealing more quickly with each product as it comes out. And ultimately there are mechanisms in the world and if we find this to be a problem that spreads across all products in any one particular country or across group of countries that we might be able to take the action. It's much harder to pursue that type of action, but we've been successful with it in the past. I'm sure you're familiar with it, it's the – we refer it as the 201. And should the problem become so obvious that countries are employing the concept of product substitution or country substitution, we would not hesitate to go down that path again in the future.
Brian Hsien Yu - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Thank you.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Certainly it's a challenging situation, the imports, and one that we recognize as probably the largest – it's the largest challenge our industry faces, but again I'm going to stress, I feel good about the action, I mentioned this couple of calls ago, that I felt better about what was happening in the Washington than I've had in the past 20 years of my steel career and I feel even better today than I did two calls ago.
Operator:
We'll now take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Hi, Good afternoon. I wanted to ask on a cash basis, how close are you to reaching the breakeven point at the Louisiana DRI facility and do you expect that facility to be even cash positive possibly at some point later this year, even though pig iron prices continued their steady decline over the second quarter?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
Yeah, we believe if the iron ore situation were passed right now based on the volumes we're running at in the month of – at the end of the quarter, that they would have been cash breakeven then. So clearly by the end of this year they will be cash breakeven and cash positive.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then along the same lines, in addition to the benefits of putting that high cost iron ore inventory behind you, how much could the unit cost at that DRI facility improve, if you tick this utilization slightly higher or are you comfortable with the current utilization rate, which I am guessing is somewhere just about 85% or so.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, we believe that we can get the utilization rate up another 5%, maybe 7% or 8% and certainly that's going to have an impact on our costs, but there's also other areas that we believe we can improve – to improve our overall cost structure. One is yield, obviously, and we're focused on that. We have just installed and started up a briquetter, which will take some of the waste product from the path and turn into briquette that we can feed back into the furnace, we believe that will have a significant impact on the yields going forward. So in addition to getting the utilization up, we're confident that we can continue to work down our conversion costs by improving operation, that something Nucor has always been very good at and I'm sure that our team will be able to accomplish the same results in that facility.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Great. And just to be clear, what is the current utilization rate at the facility right now at the end of the quarter?
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It's about 90%, 91%, something like that.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Fantastic. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
We'll now take Scott Nicholls with Bishop, Rosen & Company. Go ahead, sir.
Scott Nicholls - Bishop Rosen & Co:
Good afternoon, gentlemen. I've got a two-part question. First part is Sachs of Chicago have a consensus earnings estimate for the year 2016 at about $2.95 a share, could you comment on that?
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
This is Jim Frias. We're in a very cyclical business and making predictions about 2016 is very challenging. So our comment would be that's within the range of possibilities, but we'll have to wait and see.
Scott Nicholls - Bishop Rosen & Co:
Okay. Thank you very much.
James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP:
You're welcome.
Operator:
And we'll now go to Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Following up now...
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Matt.
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hey, John. Following up on the trade case questions, in your press release, you noted that even you don't think the trade cases right now are enough to fight off the pressures of global over-capacity. Is it really mill closures do you think in the end that's going to take that that what it's going to take to the lift the outlook for all the mills over the cycle? And do you see any tangible signs where this over capacity is beginning to be addressed, do you think some of this over-capacity is actually here in the U.S? Last, do you think that this new cascade of global protections measures here, the EU, Mexico, India, do you think that's going to really prompt the kind of capacity review in places like China that seem to be needed? Thanks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I might be the eternal optimist, but I do believe that in China they are beginning to understand that too much of a good thing is not such a good thing. I believe that they are starting to see that they do have too much capacity, we're hearing a little bit about some potential capacity cut-backs there, it's being driven by economics, is also being driven by environmental concern that are very real. So long-term, I do think that you're going to see some capacity reduction in China. Here in the States it's impossible for me to say what's going to happen in the way of closures going forward. But in a world where there's over-capacity sooner or later, there will be those players who cannot survive and that will happen. The key here is to remember that, Nucor has always been a low cost producer of steel and steel products. And that's where we – that's all okay, that's where we are really – that's where we shine. So at the end of the day, if there is potential closures here in the United States or somewhere else around the world, this (58:51) I can assure you. One of the names of the places closing will not be Nucor. We'll be in business. So it's hard for me to comment on who will close or how much will close, but I can assure is this and my teammates can assure that, we won't be one of the one that will be closing .
Matthew J. Korn - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Got it. I appreciate the comment.
Operator:
That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. At this time, Mr. Ferriola I'd like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you. Let me conclude by saying as I always do, thank you to our shareholders, we appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We really appreciate your business. And I want to say thank you to my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders, and building a sustainable future for all of us. And as always, most importantly, thank you all for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, CEO and President James Frias - CFO, EVP and Treasurer
Analysts:
Luke Folta - Jefferies Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank Matthew Korn - Barclays Michael Gambardella - JPMorgan Brian Yu - Citigroup Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse Phil Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Andrew Lane - Morningstar David Lipshift - CLSA
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2015 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will come at that time. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management’s current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor’s latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC’s and Nucor’s website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speaks only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today’s call are the other members of Nucor’s senior management team
James Frias:
Thanks, John. First quarter of 2015 earnings of $0.21 per diluted share compared favorably against fourth quarter of 2014 earnings of $0.65 per diluted share and year ago first quarter earnings of $0.35 per diluted share. The profitability of our steel segment for the first quarter of 2015 declined approximately 46%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. An unprecedented level of imports flooding the domestic market in late '14 and early 2015 has pressured steel selling prices margins and volumes for all of our steel mill products. The hard rolled sheet market is the weakest as a result of the combined impact of surging imports and severe inventory correction underway in the energy pipe and tube sector. Capacity utilization in our steelmaking operations fell to 65% of the first quarter of 2015 from the fourth quarter's rate of 76%. Not surprisingly our sheet mills experienced the largest decline quarter-over-quarter in production and shipments. New core sheet mill shipments decreased 14% over this period, which compared to an 8% decline in total steel mill shipments. Steel mill profitability was also impacted by continued erosion in selling prices that outpaced decreases in raw material costs. A decline in steel selling prices exceeded the reduction in our composite scrap and scrap usage cost which were $39 per ton quarter-over-quarter. Average sales prices dropped $70 per ton per plate, $67 per ton per beams and $49 per ton per sheet. The first quarter of 2015 performance of the raw material segment includes an operating loss of approximately $44 million or $0.09 per diluted share at our new DRI facility in Louisiana. That is larger than the approximately $35 million operating loss. The Newport steel, Louisiana experienced in the fourth quarter. Our Louisiana team has completed repairs and the adjustments of the process gas heater that failed the November of last year. Operations resumed during the last week of the first quarter. On the positive side, our downstream product segment continues to capitalize in the slow but steady growth underway in non-residential construction markets. As expected this segment's first quarter profitability decreased from the fourth quarter level due to typical seasonal factors. However compared with the year ago quarter, segment pretax profitability increased to more than $32 million from less than $2 million. Particularly strong profit improvement was achieved in our joist and decking and metal building systems businesses. A quick comment about our tax rates which can be confusing due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interests. After adjusting our profits belonging to our business partners the effective tax rate was 33.9% for the first quarter. Nucor's financial position remains strong. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 36% at the close of the first quarter. Cash and short term investments totaled $1.3 million including our net debt-to-capital ratio at approximately 28%. Our net significant debt maturity is not until December 2017. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility which remains undrawn it still does not mature until August of 2018. Nucor is the only North America's steel produce to hold the investment grade credit rating. Nucor continues to generate very robust operating cash flow throughout the cyclical up and downs that characterize the steel business. With our highly variable cost structure we benefit from significant reductions in working capital during downturns. That was the case again in the first quarter of 2015 with cash provided by operations of $564 million a dramatic increase from the year ago first quarter. Our strong cash flow will obviously increase our liquidity and retire the year end to 2014 commercial paper balance of about $150 million that have been issued to fund the portion of Gallatin Steel acquisition in the fourth quarter of last year. First quarter of 2015 capital expenditures totaled $70 million. We continue to estimate full year 2015 capital spending will be approximately $500 million. Most of our recent largest scale growth projects have been completed or near in completion. Depreciation and amortization for 2015 is expected to total about $700 million. John made an excellent point about the strength of Nucor's business model. It is one that enjoys competitive advantages and a degree of flexibility that cannot be matched by any of our competitors in the North American steel industry. Nucor's strong balance sheet consistently healthy cash flow generation and conservative financial practices are critical components of our business model. Times of adversity such as what our industry is currently undergoing once again highlight the strength and value of Nucor significant competitive advantages and superior adaptability. Our focus is not on survival but growing stronger. Earnings in the first quarter of 2015 are expected to be somewhat improved from the first quarter. The second quarter should be followed by further improvement in the second half of 2015 given the ongoing strength of non-residential construction and its impact on our steel mills and downstream businesses. Non-residential construction activity accounts for more than half of end used demand for our products. Margin in the steel mill segment are expected to improve although we will not realize the full benefits of lower raw material cost until there is a greater stability in steel pricing. As service center destocking runs its course during this transaction period steel prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. Second quarter performance at a raw material segment will reflect continued high losses at the Louisiana, DRI facility and the impact of a nearly completed one month maintenance outage at our DRI facility in Trinidad. The Louisiana plant has resumed production and it will be consuming higher cost iron ore that was on hand when the plant suspended operations following a failure in its process gas heater in early November. Our steel product segment is expected to achieve continued improvement in profitability during the second quarter. All three major fabricated construction products joist and decking, fabricator rebar and metal buildings are experiencing significant year-over-year gains in bookings backlogs and backlog margins. Over the past several months our transits [ph] has increased at the overall U.S. non-residential construction market is set to deliver square footage growth in the range of at least 7% to 8% in 2015. Such a growth rate would still place at the market almost 40% below the peak level of 2007. Whatever short-term economic and steel industry conditions we face for the remainder of 2015 new horizontal rival position of strength will allow our team to continue to execute on our improvement strategies for delivering profitable long-term growth in shareholder returns. We appreciate your interest our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks Jim. Nucor’s culture has always been defined by our willingness to tackle and overcome challenges. We don’t ignore problems that's not an effective strategy for success or even survival. We have confronted by challenges. We find ways to grow stronger while fixing or mitigating the problem. During the first quarter, unprecedented volumes of steel and joist [ph] continued to be a major challenge for our industry, Blatant foreign government support of their steel industries has resulted in glut of global steel production. A brazen disregard of international trade rules has led to the dumping of steel products in our market. As a result, one in three tons of steel sold in the U.S. today is produced abroad, by less efficient, less safe and less environmentally friendly countries. This is a real crisis for our industry. We are attacking this issue head on to fighting back. Nucor is working on a bipartisan basis with members of Congress and with the administration to ensure that we have strong and effective tools to combat on fair trade. If Congress passes trade promotion authority legislation by authorizing the President to enter into free trade agreements. We believe the bill must be balanced with the strongest possible trade enforcement mechanisms so that steel and other industries have the tools we need to fight this blatant disregard in international trade rules. There is substantial support from both Democrat and Republicans for doing this. Additionally, the administration must pay a much tougher one with countries that break the law. We have a set of rules governing trades. We follow those rules on foreign countries and producers break those rules there must be meaningful consequences. Applying tariffs and other remedies is simply holding governments accountable for the agreements that they signed. To that end Nucor continues to assess market conditions and will be proactive and aversive in pursuing trade cases when and where it is appropriate. I will now update you on some of our team's organic growth initiatives underway to improve our long-term cost position and expand our product portfolios to include more value added higher margins offerings that are less impacted by the tsunami of imports. After restarting operations at the end of the first quarter, Nucor Steel Louisiana is once again producing DRI, world class quality levels that our team established prior to the equipment failing [ph]. It is important to note that the process gas heater is not part of DRI technology utilized by Louisiana. But is ancillary industrial equipment required by operating plants. During Louisiana just completed shutdown, modifications to the process gas heating’s original design were implemented to prevent the re-occurrence of a similar failure. One significant modification was the installation of two large damps [ph] to enable the process gas heater to control its cooling rate which will expand the life of the tubes that have failed in the past. Another significant modification was the addition of a nitrogen [indiscernible] to the outlet of the heater to significantly reduce any collateral damage in the event of any future failure. Louisiana has been a challenging start, nevertheless it is a major step forward in the implementation of our long-term strategy to optimize our iron unit process. In fact, we believe it has already provided short-term benefits. Presence of our Louisiana DRI facility, having produced 1.3 million tons last year and preparing to resume production at the end of the last quarter was a meaningful factor supporting February's dramatic price [ph] adjustment of more than $100 per ton in scrap price. That very much supports our belief in the long-term benefit of our DRI investment. In the first quarter of 2015 our Hertford county North Carolina plate mills recently added heat treating and normalizing assets continue to run at full capacity of approximately 245,000 tons annually. The Hertford county team is capturing a growing share of value added and higher margin plate products. Relative to an investment of approximately $150 million, our value added capabilities both incremental pretax profit that should average $200 per ton through this cycle. During the first quarter the first field installation of Nucor model's new Berkeley piling sections was successfully completed. This new product is the result of a $115 million project we started off in the fourth quarter of last year. Our customers will benefit from this new domestic talent [ph] solution as they pursue by American government funded infrastructure projects. Nucor model's expanded product portfolio will also create valuable synergies with the other products and services bolstered by the skyline field, piling distribution business we acquired in 2012. Our goal over the next several years is to grow our wider piling sections annual volume to 100,000 tons with combined steel mill and distribution pretax profit potential of approximately $450 per ton. Momentum continues to build at Nucor's fieldBerkeley$98 million wide like capital project that started off in early 2004 and has shipped approximately 120,000 tons last year. We expect to ship about 200,000 tons of the new products in 2015 and eventually grow volumes to be at least 300,000 annually with the pretax profit averaging $100 per ton through this cycle. Berkeley now has the widest hot rolled gage capability of any sheet mill in the Southern United States market and with the finished wood capability of up to 72 inches. A particular importance, the upgrade allows Nucor to produce thinner high strength steel grades that we planned to use to develop lightweight automotive applications. As I said earlier, these are just some of the growth initiatives. I look forward to updating you again next quarter on our progress implementing our strategy for profitable growth. Here are the some of the reasons why I believe Nucor will continue to deliver profitable long-term growth and industry leading returns on capital. Our low and highly variable cost structure is Nucor's bedrock competitive advantage. We understand that to generate attractive returns in a commodity business you have to be a low cost producer and see continual improvement in the cost structure. Our balance sheet strength and through the cycle cash flow generation underpins our long-term focus and ability to take advantage of profitable growth opportunities particularly during cyclical downturns. Our upstream vertical integration into raw materials enhances the profitability and flexibility of Nucor's core steel making business. David J. Joseph Company's unmatched global raw material supply chain combined with our investments in DRI and scrap dealers is Nucor's best in class capabilities and flexibility in optimizing or is by far our largest single cost item iron units. Our industry leading product and market diversity continues to grow as we move up the value chain in all of our businesses. Our downstream vertical integration into value added steel products enhances the profitability and flexibility of Nucor's core steel making business. Our expanded challenged market such as Harris Steel, Steel Technologies and Skyline Steel increased our ability to compete with unfairly traded influence by expanding our opportunities to add value to our customers. Our commitment to achieving commercial excellence by leveraging Nucor's competitive advantages such as product diversity and operational flexibility to create more value tool and build stronger relationships with each of our customers. And most importantly Nucor's employees the right people. They embrace the Nucor cultures pay per performance philosophy and cash the continuous improvement and taking care of our customers plus shareholders and their fellow teammates. That is why they are company's greatest assets and our greatest competitive advantage. As has been throughout Nucor's history, our company’s [indiscernible] area head of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. We would now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Luke Folta with Jefferies.
Luke Folta:
Good afternoon
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon how are you.
Luke Folta:
Good. Hey John can you help me bridge the gap between the commentary around non-res construction improvement and the shipment levels in the first quarter, if I look at some of the key categories and structural and even in the joist and decking and the bar businesses. There is some fairly healthy decline year-over-year. Could you just give us some color on what that driven by is that mostly an import issue or is it timing?
John Ferriola:
Well it's actually a combination of imports and timing. You're comparing it to first quarter of 2014 and if we focus on one that's fixed structural. But most --
James Frias:
I think it was comparing the fourth quarter of --.
John Ferriola:
When you comparing the first quarter or fourth quarter of last year.
Luke Folta:
I'm looking now year-on-year 1Q to 1Q.
John Ferriola:
My bad. So if we focus on one particular area let's just take structural with these are the basically the same for all of the categories. But at the beginning of 2014 we're looking at a situation where as you said imports were much lower service center inventories were down we were going into a year where non-residential construction was projected to be up frankly in the first quarter we were talking about price increases that were out there. So, you know combination of all of those resulted in much higher order ranking rates in the first quarter of last year compared to the first quarter of this year.
Luke Folta:
Okay. And then if you look at the full year expectation - square footage expected to grow about 7% to 8% this year I mean outside of the first quarter issue as it pertains destocking in imports would you expect that you’re these categories should grow about in line with that pace?
John Ferriola:
Again taking imports out of the equation if we see the growth that we are projecting in non-residential construction we should see volume increases as compared to the first quarter particularly as we move out of the seasonal issues that are affecting the first quarter in a lot of our business particularly when you look at some of the downstream businesses such as Harris where frankly the type of new construction work in the first quarter of January and February and many of our Harris facilities are located in Canada just to kind of amplify the situation so. We do expect it to improve as we come out of the first quarter weather conditions improve and we see the expected increase in non-residential construction.
Luke Folta:
Okay. And just secondly on DRI understanding that we've got high cost inventory to work through and that impacts unit cost in the outage as well if we imagine a scenario where we stay in the sort of 260-275 pig iron environment and iron ore 50 bucks. Can you give us some sense how we should think about profitability of DRI at full production? Is it profitable meaningfully at that level?
John Ferriola:
It would be cash positive at those levels when you're talking about pig iron at 250 we do transfer our DRI on a pricing mechanism that's based upon pig iron and I would say that at the level of about 250 for pig iron we are cash positive. I would also point out that I'd be quick to point out that I personally believe 250 for pig iron is an unsustainable level it's a result of some significant and unusual currency issues and the geopolitical issues so I personally would not expect that to stay at that low level long-term. Having said all of that we have said from the beginning when we talk about the DRI project that over the close of the cycles is going to be times when we get singles times when we bonds and sometimes when we get grand slams. We talked just last quarter about the very positive contribution from our Trinidad operation and when pig iron was at a more normalized rate and we expected to be back up to those levels again and we expect to see a very good returns on our DRI investment when that occurs.
Luke Folta:
Alright, thank you gentlemen.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners:
Yeah, hey, good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. Timna, how are you?
Timna Tanners:
I am okay, thanks. I wanted to make sure I can understand that what happened between your initial qualitative guidance to the quantitative guidance to the beat. Can you just talk us through what changed in your assumptions or what changed in the market environment to change the outcome?
John Ferriola:
Certainly, we can do that. As always on these things as many factors but the key one the driver for all this was frankly the steel performance, the performance of our steel mill improved. In forecasting we underestimated the impact that we would have on our margins on scrap pricing going down we got to realize the lowest scrap price quicker and frankly in some of our products we had higher volumes. So the combination of an improved margin relative to our forecast and some volume increases above our forecast we did beat the forecast as you mentioned.
Timna Tanners:
Okay, so two questions just to finish up then. One, why did prices fell less in sheet then they did in the plate and beams that's a very high profile to see how much sheet prices have fallen recently but plate and beams I thought it'd be fall on just more recently with the $100 scrap moving just in February so why did you see plate and beams fall more than you did in sheet in the quarter?
John Ferriola:
For one element that you have to take into account when you to answer that question is that some portion of our sheet businesses on quarter-over-quarter contract pricing that's based on some mechanism. So when you - there is a lag time before you see that decrease in those contract pricing. I would also point out that although the import situation is very serious on sheet product and particularly plate has been unbelievable tsunami of imported plate over the last two quarters. And that of course had a dramatic impact on pricing of the plates.
Timna Tanners:
Okay. That’s helpful. And then the only thing that I want to ask is just, maybe it's philosophical but now I'm just been surprised that how I know prices always over correct in a down market. But why would a company like and many like yourselves, you have some flexibility to ramp down continue to produce at these very low prices and to match imports. Isn't there a price at which you say no I don't want to make that lower margin and I'm going to hold out and if the prices are expected to recover. Why is everybody including yourselves I guess continue to produce and offer these low price tons at import levels. Is that import equivalent level, what do you think?
John Ferriola:
Well so it's balanced. Right, you want to look at you're the buying - your facility which obviously impacts your fixed cost of that facility. So that's one issue. Secondly we need to take care of our customers we don't want to give up market share sometimes when you lose a customer or lose a business opportunity it's hard to regain it. And our customers count on us being there even when it's difficult pricing environment. So there are just a couple of reasons that we continue to operate. I'll also point out that Timna and let me know if I didn't answer that question if I did tell me what you wanted to hear on that. But given the radical change in the scrap cost which we frankly believe becoming because of the large gap between scrap pricing and iron units. We felt that we can work our way through those tough times keep our customer satisfied maintain our market share not lose good opportunities knowing that we would ultimately be able to as a result of our scrap cost going down to be able to correct our pricing and get it closer to the market to the imported price and maintain a margin.
Timna Tanners:
That makes sense. Thanks for the answer.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan Kurtz:
Hey good afternoon guys.
John Ferriola:
Hey Evan how are you.
Evan Kurtz:
Good. My first question is on trade. So it seems like you're taking kind of a two pronged or maybe the industry is taking a two pronged approach to trade issues. One is just putting together a trade case and keeping at about on flat rolled. But the other is on the legislative front. Senator Brown has got these level playing field rules that is I assume trying to attach the TPA at this point. So it seems like maybe there is a chance you get some of these rules that would actually change the way that harm is measured in the US through in the next few months here. How do those two things impact one and other. So my question is would you wait to file a trade case on flat rolled if you think it could maybe change the rules at the ITC on the harm decision or are those completely independent?
James Frias:
When we fight we use both of this, okay. So those are two pronged approach and we're going to use both of those prongs to achieve a level playing field. So that our team mates can be successful which we know they will be on a level playing field. I've mentioned on the last couple of calls that I've told that we're gaining traction in Washington on both of those fronts I still do we are getting a much better reception. People are beginning to understand I believe people are beginning to understand the impact of these illegally traded products on our industry and on our team mates steel workers in general. It's about focusing and pursuing trade cases when that's appropriate and moving forward on the legislative front at the same time. We see great opportunity frankly on the legislative front particularly with the TPA discussions that are going on today and we are pushing very, very hard to getting good reception on both sides of the aisle to the concept that if TPA is going to be approved it must be approved with strong trade language to protect our industries and give us the ability to better and more effectively and more proactively by illegally traded products.
Evan Kurtz:
Great. And then just maybe on the trade case. What's kind of your outlook there on timing it seems like it's been a pretty weak first quarter from most folks at this point and second quarter probably for most folks will also be fairly difficult. Do you think the case is ready to bring at this point or do you need to demonstrate more harm before the industry is comfortable to filing.
James Frias:
Well let me be clear we will continue to assess the market and we will implement the trade case at the appropriate time.
Evan Kurtz:
Okay. And then maybe just one last one quickly on scrap. What's your view for the upcoming months it seems like flow is maybe somewhat pick up a little bit which would be negative or maybe demands coming back where you think it all shakes out.
James Frias:
Well frankly our forecast will be pretty flat line for the rest of the year. Obviously when you talk about scrap is always slight variations in different regions. We expect some movements in different regions up 5 down 10 so forth as we go throughout the year. But overall as you look at the year as a whole I think we're going to be pretty flat lined on scrap prices.
Evan Kurtz:
Great thanks. With that I'll turn it over.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Matthew Korn with Barclays.
Matthew Korn:
Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.
James Frias:
Good afternoon. How are you?
Matthew Korn:
I'm alright all right. Let me ask how much of your lead time is improve today say versus the bottom of this previous quarter. And how deeply are you sold into May June particularly as you're expecting much better results in the downstream segment looking at.
James Frias:
Well as we mentioned in the script, this is a quarter of transition. So we're not quite sure when we'll see that actual kick in today. I would say a very modest improvement in lead times very modest frankly not significantly over the first quarter. And I would expand it would go across say I would apply it all basically all of our products. Now the one exception I would add to that is in the sheet side on the galvanizing the cold rolled products that those lead times are longer and we still see a pretty strong demand in that area.
Matthew Korn:
Alright and kind of following up on that and on your volume expectations gradual construction in order to meet improvements. When you're looking into this transitional second quarter. Is the improvement in earning really going to be mostly a margin expansion story on the realization of scrap cost or could you see some real volume improvement.
James Frias:
I would say it's the combination of the two. And again to give me it out further than that the most specific from that very difficult to do. But I would say that it was a combination of both.
Matthew Korn:
Got it. Appreciate the time gentlemen. Thank you.
James Frias:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question format Murphy with UBS.
James Frias:
Hi Hello Matt.
Matthew Murphy:
Hi. Can you hear me?
James Frias:
I can hear you great.
Matthew Murphy:
I'm good thanks yeah. I was just wondering what your capacity utilization is right now if there was 65% on average for Q1 would it be lower than that now.
James Frias:
It's about the same. I can't speak to what it is exactly today, but so far we are about the same.
Matthew Murphy:
Yeah okay. And is that I mean I guess I'm just wondering what the does the recovery profile of that just like we should basically be watching imports coming off to drive that backup.
James Frias:
Well again there will be a number of factors. Imports beginning to drop off. Although we have seen and I want to stress that it's going to be a while before we see that drop off. Although we've seen a slightly decline in licenses it was so much out there in the pipeline that this is going to take and so much is already reached the service centers and just filled up their inventory. It's going to be a wild before we work our way through that. And now I can tell you that for the first time this month and numbers that just came out on service and the inventories we see them coming down just a little bit but imports are some it's just certainly watch and there is other factors too particularly on our shade sheet business when you want to book at oil prices. Now I can't tell you when it's going to recover but certainly we've seen a tremendous impact on our flat rolled business as a result of oil pricing going from $150 to $50 our volumes are way down. Same situation there we flooded the pipeline with material there has been a complete stop as they work their way through this inventory at some point maybe third and fourth quarter we'll start working our way through that inventory and we will see order rates that are consistent with new normal drilling levels that are expected with the lower price and other thing you can keep your eye on is currency obviously the strong dollar has an impact on what's happening both on our raw material side and on our steel shipment side and it relates to imports and other factors so I try to give you couple of things that you can keep an eye on but there is a multitude of things that we have to watch and see what’s going to happen as we go forward.
Matthew Murphy:
That’s good color I mean and then basically just sort of looking at like these are six month thing but I understand but I understand its dependant on all of those factors I guess on scrap prices I have been little bit surprise that no one is expecting it seems much more weakness there given we have seen continued iron ore weakness and so I guess just on scrap what’s the confidence of that we've got some pricing stability for a while here?
John Ferriola:
Well, I mean all I can tell you is my confidence level we gave you our projection we believe in that projections we think that it's going to be fairly stable right now iron ore pricing its fluctuates a little but spend relatively stable also if there is a dramatic change in iron ore pricing it might have the inflection in scrap pricing but we don’t see that at this time.
Matthew Murphy:
Okay thanks.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan
Michael Gambardella:
Yes, good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon, Michael. How are you?
Michael Gambardella:
Very good. I have a question if you are assuming that scrap prices are going to stay relatively flat rest of the year and you saw a massive $100 drop couple of months ago. When do you or are you now picking up share against the integrated mills who are basically fixed cost and when you get $100 drop and scrap they saw a very little of it?
James Frias:
Obviously it made us much more competitive and the reason people buy steel it’s based upon four things I said this many times service, quality, on-time delivery and price. And when we are in a situation where there is such a difference between scrap and iron ore pricing we had a real disadvantage on pricing and that impacted our competitive position frankly when I think about how we did during that period with a gap with so large I am really proud of the job our team did on the other three elements of quality service and delivery that kept us in the game when we had $100 differential on cost and now that has been reduced the scrap coming down very confident that we will continue to be aggressive and now we've got we're competitive on all four of those elements and I feel good about the way that will go forward in terms of any market share.
Michael Gambardella:
Is it your sense that you are gaining market share now?
James Frias:
I am not going to get into specific at any one point in time. I'll just say again, we have the pricing competitive risk not only integrated but we reduced the gap between imported pricing and all pricing and we deliver superior quality service and delivery based on all of that I am confident that our team will gain market share as we move forward throughout the year now there is going to be a lot of practice that come into that as we've talked about in the past.
Michael Gambardella:
Thanks a lot John.
James Frias:
Okay.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Yu:
Thanks good afternoon John and Jim.
James Frias:
Brian how are you?
Brian Yu:
Good, Just wanted to follow up Timna's comments earlier so I guess I'm equally surprised that spot price been computed down and I guess more 50 I know imports they continue to be a big problem but if you just look at where import offers are today versus physical flow that like do you think we pass the point where now it’s more about domestic competition for market share versus all the domestic producers trying to keep out the imports?
James Frias:
Let me be really clear about these imports continue to be our number one - we are focusing on pricing here but you need to remember that there is such a tremendous over capacity we are looking at 300 million tons of excess capacity worldwide. Now that has been a continuously good pressure on our market and our profitability. Having said that, we have reduced the gap between the domestic pricing and imported pricing but look imports are going continue to be our number one challenge for our industry and our company as a whole.
Brian Yu:
Okay. Second question is this is more with your iron ore pellets inventory. How much inventory do you typically keep on hand at Louisiana I think you mentioned earlier that you're probably going to use through the high cost in second quarter so, if that occurs…
James Frias:
Let me if I may just correct that because I want to make sure we are clear on that. Today there is a gap of about $60 between the pricing of the iron ore that we have on ground and what market pricing would be. At the end of the second quarter we expect that we will reduce that gap from about $60 down to about $15. We will reduce the gap by $45 at the end of the second quarter it will be it will take us through the third quarter sometime around the middle towards the end of the third quarter before we reduce that last $15 gap and get us down to market price for iron ore. Please continue with your question but I want to correct that and be very specific on that.
Brian Yu:
That was a lot more information I had hope for so great. But maybe along those lines how much inventory do you typically keep on hand so your fleecing price had moved down in Q1 and how long before that actually flows through in the more normalized basis and then I know you guys…
John Ferriola:
About iron ore you are asking about…
Brian Yu:
Yes, iron ore in general not in…
John Ferriola:
That would be about five to six weeks at Louisiana.
Brian Yu:
Okay. And when you take these inventory adjustments the further LIFO credit incorporate assumptions about iron ore piling cost and that is accurately separate?
John Ferriola:
Well it certainly effects our LIFO calculation at the steel mills at our LIFO but the DRI plants are not under LIFO.
Brian Yu:
Okay, Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Nathan Littlewood with Credit Suisse.
Nathan Littlewood:
Good afternoon guys. Thanks for the opportunity. Just had a couple of question the first one the market share on the back of Mark’s question earlier. Could you talk a little bit about where you might be seeing market share opportunities and then say the back half of the year be it either by sort of product or end market?
James Frias:
Well we've talked about the growth, the organic growth that we've had and the products that we're bringing to the market so certainly we would expect to see market share growth in our structural business with our new piling sections we talked about the growth in the sheet side of the business with - project and how we expect that to grow year-over-year. SBQ would be another area as we continue to bring new products onto the marketplace. We are continually moving forward with our private in SBQ so, I expect market share growth in that area also and so, what are we outplay we mentioned we are running our heat treatment in normalizing the mining basically at full capacity and you know I mentioned the projects that we're doing on our SBQ mills so I don’t want to leave our raw products which we are introducing raw products to the market that have been accepted very well so we expect to grow our market share there also. And as I have mentioned on calls in the past one of the few bright spots pass in the marketplace today is automotive and we expect to grow up participation in automotive this year also last year we shipped about maybe 1.1 million tons sheet and SBQ combined products into automotive and this year we are anticipating shipping about 1.45 million tons of combined sheet and has continue into the automotive market and part of that's being supported by I'm going to put a little plug in here for our new Detroit automotive office that we've just established and it's been well received by the automotive companies we have - metallurgical and engineering team mates and sales people in that office to help support push into automotive.
Nathan Littlewood:
That's useful John. Are there any updates on the sort of exposed order or body and white industry since last we spoke about this?
John Ferriola:
No, Certainly body and white that's one of our strong points that we are moving into and when you say expose. Exposed accounts were about 15% of the weight of steel per vehicle. And certainly we want to play in that game and we do. We have a product that we can put into that and have put into that and exposed applications. But as clearly not a focus point for us. When we look at body and white we see 75% of the volume going in there that's our focus point. We look at what they called closures which represents 25% the remaining 25% and only 15% of that is exposed. So combined you're looking at 15% out of the total weight of the cost. It's not something it's not where our major push is going to be.
Nathan Littlewood:
Got it, okay, that's helpful. And my final one was just one the DRI project and raw materials. So look I certainly understand the raw material strategy here and we do like the fact that there is this additional flexibility built into your sort of iron unit’s procurement here. But I mean can we consider a scenario where the pricing environment is just not conducive to DRI bank profitable. And let's assume it something to do with iron ore and pig iron spreads. Could you talk a little bit about what sort of flexibility you have in your raw material contracts to effectively flex those volumes down. And so you're going to reduce DRI output just because it isn't profitable or it can't be profitable. And perhaps and bring it back again later in the future when margins or spreads are a bit more conducive to that plant being profitable.
James Frias:
Well we get our raw material iron ore from four different sources. And I'm not going to give you the specifics of what kind of contracts we have with each one of those particular suppliers. But in general we have a level of about 25%to 35% flexibility in the supply of raw material iron unit. So we can credit back 25% to 35% and I'm talking now across all the contracts I'm not going to get any more specific on that. But if I may I want to take a moment here, because there was a question earlier about the DRI and how should they look at when the cost of iron units and going down we would see improvements. And I answer the question because it was tied originally back to the amount of weeks on hand of iron ore supply inventory we had. And I said that we keep about five to six weeks of inventory on the ground. That is an accurate statement. But if he was looking to get some sense of when pricing changes relative to iron ore pricing on an index bases changes. We need to factor in the issue that we buy at a quarterly basis with a lagging quarter. So for whoever asked that question earlier about seeing changes in the pricing of raw material going into Louisiana please bear in mind when we see the change occur in the index there is a one quarter lag in the pricing that we see at the plant itself, okay?
Nathan Littlewood:
Alright thanks very much John. Appreciate it.
John Ferriola:
That correction is credit to Joe Stratman who held up a piece of paper and said quarterly pricing.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Phil Gibbs:
Hi good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon.
Phil Gibbs:
Just had a question on the US rationalization of scrap collection and processing and maybe what you've been seeing there the last couple of months and whether or not you will be participating in that trend.
James Frias:
Clearly as pricing has dropped and everyone it's in the processing again those it's been very challenging margins have been severely compressed. And it's very challenging for processors to make a decent profit. And we expect to see some people not making it through this very difficult time. Certainly we have a strong balance sheet which gives us the opportunity and we have a strong balance sheet and a history of taking advantage of downturns in trouble times to grow our businesses. So we'll keeping an eye out for assets that come available when they make sense they fit into our strategic plan for a raw materials as the locations are right the pricing is right I'll tell you what we won't be shy we'll be at the table.
Phil Gibbs:
John I was just curious as to whether or not you're seeing actual rationalization particularly in the south.
John Ferriola:
We haven’t seen much of it yet. But remember that usually a lot of times it's not during the downturn where you see the greatest pressure on these companies, but actually during the upturn, but I have to stop replacing inventory when your completing inventory you generate cash, when you have to replace inventory you burn fluid cash, and sometimes that can be more challenging as it bottoms out, maybe the upturn when you really see company struggle to stay on business.
Phil Gibbs:
Okay and then I just appreciate that and then I just had a question for clarification because you were generous enough to give out some of the targets here on Hertford and Berkeley on those projects. Were you saying that the Hertford normalizing line is about $200 a ton over what your normal mix is? And then the same thing with your Nu model on the 450 and then Berkeley on the 100? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
That is correct.
Phil Gibbs:
I appreciate it. Good luck.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane:
Hi, good afternoon. A couple of questions here, First I wanted to ask about the upcoming DRI facility outage in Trinidad in the second quarter is that a standard maintenance project or are you implementing process improvements that you just implemented at the Louisiana facility? And then on a related note, is the timing related to the availability of low price pig iron from abroad and what will be anticipated operating loss associated with the outage? Thanks.
John Ferriola:
Let me work through this note, this is in fact a plan preventative maintenance for well shut down that is scheduled in advance and must be doing on a regular angle basis, without getting into all the technical indeed shut down and clean out the piping in the earnest. It's done about once a year, it takes about a month, and it’s a normal process. We are frankly adding a piece of equipment in Trinidad that has nothing to do with Louisiana situation it’s a polisher to improve the yields as the product ships from Trinidad to United States but that’s a side issue there is no failure in Trinidad and anticipate variance it is strictly a planned maintenance outage. In terms of what we expected to get us with, James do you have that number?
James Frias:
I am sorry I was thinking, I missed it.
John Ferriola:
The question I was asked, can we have the estimate on what the cost of that project is?
James Frias:
We don’t have the estimated loss during outage but it’d probably be less than what you saw from Louisiana for the quarter it's going to be much less than that, but there would be some loss from the loss structure of one month.
Andrew Lane:
Okay. Thanks and then I change gears for a minute. Given your unique purchase to observe the scrap market to what degree have you seen scrap collection rates dry up in the slower price environment and how low would scrap prices have to fall before you would expect availability become a legitimate concern?
John Ferriola:
Well although pricing is dropping, would those have negative impact on collection and flowing to the yards, bear in mind that it's also spring. It's a whole lot of at the time when people are collecting [indiscernible] in winter, transportation is not a factor like it is in winter. So they kind of balance out and although we have seen a small amount of increase in flowing to the yards it's not been significant and it's balanced by the two factors of lower pricing offset by spring time and there was another issue just to kind of build upon that’s something that hasn’t come up in all the discussion we have had today about scrap and I am a little surprised by it. But bear in mind that the other thing we look at to keep the supply scrap up in the United States is the load that we buy offshore particularly with the way the currency is today,[indiscernible]quite a bit of scrap on overseas.
Andrew Lane:
And where is the majority of that scrap… incoming scrap coming from?
John Ferriola:
As a general statement, Europe.
Andrew Lane:
Okay great. Thanks for the color.
John Ferriola:
Thank you.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from David Lipshift with CLSA.
David Lipshift:
Hey guys how you are doing.
John Ferriola:
Good how are you?
David Lipshift:
I am doing well. So a quick question you know you talked about pig iron being sort of low and expected eventually to bring back up. How do you think the removal of the export tax and figure out that China is going to impact out there.
John Ferriola:
Well if it's a renewal of an excellent tax it should go up.
David Lipshift:
I know they'll be able to explore more.
John Ferriola:
Yeah so I mean the volume will go up their volume will their exports will go up. I'm not sure how much of that would actually make its way to the US as all the market I would expect that there will be other markets that will go to in Europe and in Asia and even in India will more logical markets from a logistics perspective and then here in the United States.
David Lipshift:
So as just when whether that would put continue to put pressure on big iron prices.
John Ferriola:
Absolutely, its economics, one of one supply and demand. And whenever you have a situation when more suppliers coming into the marketplace. It puts pressure on pricing. So but I would ask you to consider one factor and that is I can't test to the quality of the big iron coming out of China that might be a question.
David Lipshift:
Okay. And you don't think lower big iron prices potentially put more pressure on scrap as well that people will start to take more big iron and then scrap could go lower.
John Ferriola:
Same reason well supply buying units into the market and it bring pressure on all aspects of volume units, scrap, big iron, DRI.
David Lipshift:
Okay thank you.
John Ferriola:
Thanks.
Operator:
And we'll take our final question from Tony [ph] with Cowen and Company.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good afternoon gentlemen.
John Ferriola:
Tony how are you?
Unidentified Analyst:
Good John. John is there a rationale for the mills not raising prices yet. I mean service center indicate they would be receptive. We see the MSCI inventories are still a bit higher but the moving in the right directionally and it totally we're hearing that end users are living for the most part and the mills. And I'm just wondering how you feel about that.
John Ferriola:
Well if there is a service center out there that I want some [indiscernible] from us guarantee at higher prices in the Norway, but as a general statement I understand your point. It’s about an inflection whenever you at the bottom. And if you're asking me where I think we stand on that cycle I would say the couple of times during the - call that we this properly transitional quarter. So we might see something this quarter but I would ask you to remember that there is still a tremendous amount of inputs that are in the pipeline that are on their where [indiscernible] to the United States. So that continues to put pressure on pricing. As I said we'll listen we're not opposed to selling feel at a higher price we like to do that but we also have to take care about customers and maintain our market share in order to those factors that we spoke about earlier in the call.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, fair enough. And my second question is some of the industrial companies are starting to talk about some signs of softening with regard to US demand. Are you guys seeing any signs of declaration anywhere in your end markets, so outside of energy, and also if you could address…
John Ferriola:
I'd have to say no in fact I would say that our downstream products [indiscernible] is true. We see a significant improvement in our backlog order entry and backlog prices.
Unidentified Analyst:
And would that be the same John from a standpoint of geographic as well.
John Ferriola:
I'm not sure I understand what you mean by that.
Unidentified Analyst:
Just in terms of different parts of the country. Obviously you guys have pretty good exposure.
John Ferriola:
Yeah if there any part of the country than which we're seeing well that. But right now we will pretty well balance. I might say in Canada we're seeing again Harris - we're seeing much more improvement because they were down so significant because of weather conditions in the first quarter, but other than that pretty well balanced.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay thanks very much. Appreciate the color.
Operator:
And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Well let me conclude by saying thank you, thank you to our shareholders and appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate your business and I want to say thank you to my new teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly, thank you all for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day and a great weekend.
Operator:
And this does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President James Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President of Raw Materials
Analysts:
Luke Folta - Jefferies Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs Brian Yu – Citigroup Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Michael Gambardella – JPMorgan Andrew Lane - Morningstar
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2014 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found on Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. And for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Thank you. Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Fourth quarter of 2014 earnings of $0.65 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.50 to $0.55 per diluted share. This outperformance was largely driven by better than expected results from our sheet mills, joist and decking business and our direct produce iron plant in Trinidad. Newly acquired Nucor Steel Gallatin made solid contributions to our fourth quarter earnings and cash flow even after absorbing about $9 million or $0.02 per diluted share after tax, our purchase accounting expenses early in the quarter. We are encouraged by our fourth quarter performance given the strong seasonal and other influences dampening volumes during the period. Total sales turns to outside customers decline 10.5% in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. A strong full year 2014 earnings improvement highlights the value of Nucor’s industry leading product diversity. We are not America’s only manufacturer of all four major steel mill products – bars, beams, plate and sheet. Our steel mill shipments of 22 million tonnes increased more than 6% year-over-year, which is more than double the U.S. steel industry’s overall growth rate. The increase steel mill volume is further leveraged by steel mill metal margin expansion of $32 per tonne. As a $37 per tonne gain in our average steel sales price are based at $5 per tonne increase and an average cost of iron units consumed. In addition to the strong profit growth at our core steel making operations, Nucor’s downstream steel products segment more than double its profitability in 2014. These businesses are benefitting from the initial stages of recovery in non-residential construction markets, particularly strong volume growth which was achieved in our joist, decking, and rebar fabrication products. Nucor’s 2014 earnings improvement was achieved despite significant operating loss at our facility at our DRI facility in Louisiana. Nucor Steel Louisiana’s 2014 operating loss total $135 million or $0.28 per diluted share after tax and $35 million or $0.07 per diluted share after tax for the fourth quarter. Production operations at Louisiana facility have remain suspended since the process gas heater experienced a failure in early November, due to the lead times on a specialty steel pipes that must be replaced. We estimate the plant will not resume operations until late in the first quarter. The process gas heater is not part of the DRI technology utilized by Louisiana, but it is ancillary equipment required to operate plant. The DRI technology stock has worked well and established new world-class quality levels as measured by metallization rates and carbon content. Although Louisiana has been a challenging start up, it will be a major step forward in the implementation of our long term raw material strategy. The recent declines in iron ore pricing and the fourth quarter profits generated by our DRI facility in Trinidad provide further validation to our work over the past decade establishing and growing Nucor’s DRI production capacity. A quick comment of our tax rate can be confusing due to the impacted profits from non-controlling interests. After adjusting our profits belonging to our business partners, effective tax rate was 33.6% from the fourth quarter and 35.3% for the full year of 2014. Nucor’s financial position remains strong at the end of 2014. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 37%. Cash and short-term investments totaled more than $1.1 billion at the close of 2014 putting our net debt-to-capital ratio at approximately 31%. Our next significant debt maturity is not until December of 2017. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving Credit Facility, which remains undrawn. The facility does not mature until August 2018. Nucor is the only North American steel producer to hold an investment grade credit rating. John mentioned our very robust operating cash flow generation in 2014. Cash provided by operations of approximately $1.3 billion comfortably exceeded capital spending of $668 million combined with cash dividends paid to our shareholders of $475 million. In 2014, Nucor’s strong balance sheet, liquidity and cash flow again allowed us to take advantage of attractive opportunities to build long term earnings power. During the fourth quarter, we completed our purchase of all the equity of Gallatin Steel for cash purchase price of approximately $779 million. The acquisition was funded from cash-on-hand and issuance of approximately $300 million of commercial paper. By the end of 2014, we have reduced the acquisition related commercial paper outstanding by half to about $151 million. For 2015, we estimate capital spending will be approximately $500 million. Most of our recent larger scale projects had been completed or are nearing completion. Our capital spending forecast also reflects our joint decision with Encana, our natural gas working interest partner to extend our drilling suspension through the end of 2015. This year’s capital spending for drilling will be very modest and consistent drilling of few wells require to maintain leasehold rights. Depreciation and amortization for 2015 is expected to total about $700 million. Nucor’s financial strength as evidenced by our strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow generation through the economic cycle is the deadlock foundation to our mission of growing shareholder value. From this position of strength, we are able to allocate our shareholders valuable capital to the most optimal or attractive usage at any given point in time. Our financial strength allowed us to invest in capital projects during the severe industry downturns and the long-term returns are most attractive. It allows us to make strategic acquisitions when the right assets at the right price become available in the market. And just as importantly it allows us to reward our shareholders with a steadily growing base dividend, supplemental dividends during up cycles, and opportunistic share repurchases. During the current downturn from 2009 to 2014, our investments totalled nearly $6 billion which is about two-thirds going to capital spending and one-third going to acquisitions. These diverse projects all grow Nucor's long term earnings power by expanding our private portfolio into higher value added offerings that are less vulnerable to imports, by improving our cost structure and finally by building upon our market leadership positions. Growing stronger during downturns is a long tradition of Nucor. It is how we achieve higher highs and profitability from on cyclical beat to the next. With our disciplined approach to capital allocation and success in building long-term earnings power, Nucor is able to reward shareholders with attractive cash returns are based on the dividend, it has more than tripled to the end of 2007. With the increase affected with next month's quarterly dividend payment, Nucor has increased its base dividend every year since it first began paying dividends in 1973 for 42 consecutive years. During the last industry up-cycle from 2004 to 2008, Nucor paid a total of $5 per share in supplemental dividends. And over the 10 year period ending in 2014, Nucor returned a total of $6.7 billion of capital to our shareholders through dividends and opportunistic stock buybacks. The Nucor team’s unrelenting focus remains on continuing to build upon our record of being an effective steward of our shareholders valuable capital. First quarter of 2015 earnings will be impacted by the significant headwinds that developed for the steel industry at the end of 2014. The collapse in oil prices has triggered inventory reductions amongst pipe and tube producers an important customer group for Nucor and the overall steel industry. At the same time, imports are up automatically entering in 2015. Now, on the margin’s side, we are continuing to see favorable trends in non-residential construction markets that will benefit both our steel mills and fabricated construction products. Overall, we expect first quarter 2015 earnings will decrease in fourth quarter to a level slightly exceeding the first quarter of 2014. Nucor will again follow a practice of providing quantitative guidance in the final month of the quarter. Whatever short-term economic and steel industry conditions we face in 2015, Nucor’s unrivalled position and strength will allow our team to continue to execute our proven strategies for delivering profitable, long-term growth. We appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. There certainly has been an abrupt change in the near term outlook in the recent weeks. The two headwinds mentioned by Jim, collapse in oil prices and surging imports will certainly challenge our team during the first quarter but that's okay. Our team has faced and overcome challenges and adversity in the past. And we’ll do it again. Energy is an extremely important driver of demand for steel in the U.S. and here at Nucor. Pipe and tube produces serving the energy markets represent approximately 10% of our steel mill shipments. Meaningful production and inventory adjustments for our pipe and tube customers are currently underway. Following this period of marketplace adjustment, we believe the future remains very positive for local energy production in North America. Importantly, lower energy costs over time should support increased U.S. manufacturing activity and consumer spending. That is all very positive for Nucor. The other major headwind is from the renewed surge in import activity. Full year 2014 import of finished carbon steel products are estimated to have jumped to an unreasonable and unacceptable level of approximately 34 million tonnes. That’s an increase of about 37% over 2013 and just under 2006’s record level of 35 million tonnes. Indications are that January 2015; finished steel imports may set a monthly record of around 3.9 million tonnes. These short-term headwinds are significant but the Nucor is extremely well-positioned and navigate through them, and we will. Some key advantages of our Company come immediately to mind. We will benefit from our low and highly variable cost structure. Additionally, we expect continued growth in non-residential construction activity. Iron use, are the largest single-cost item. As previously mentioned, profitability at our DRI plant Trinidad is benefiting from a large decline in iron ore cost. After resuming production from the Louisiana facility we will also benefit from what appears to be an oversupplied oil market over at least the next several years. Continuing on the raw material cost topic, we believe that the U.S. graph is currently significantly over priced versus iron ore and global scrap markets. Based on increased imported steel penetration, slack international demand for US scrap, the strength of the U.S. dollar and moderating U.S. demand for [indiscernible]. We expect scrap prices to fall dramatically in early 2015. During this period of transition, Nucor will continue to utilize our unmatched global supply chain, optimized all raw material costs. Our investments in DRI and then scrap yards as well as access to international raw material markets hears Nucor’s best in class capabilities and profitability and approaching the market for iron units. Non-residential construction markets count for more than half of the end-user demand of Nucor’s products as measured by square footage, U.S. non-residential construction activity increased by 6.7% in 2014. We expect continued improvement in 2015. There is worth nothing that 2014 square footage activity level represents only about 56% of 2007’s peak activity level. So there is plenty of room for additional improvement. Whenever the steel industry and the economy see unexpected periods of turbulence like what we are experiencing now in early 2015, Nucor will do what Nucor always does. We will grow bigger, stronger, and more profitable and we will outperform our competitors. Here are the reasons why Nucor will do this. Our balance sheet and twin cycle cash flow generation is unviable by any of our competitors. Our industry leading product and market diversity continues to grow as we move up the value chain in all of our businesses. The recent expansions in our offerings include normal lines and E-treated plates, wider and lighter sheet steels, additional SVQ and wire rod products and new filing sections. All of these products are less impacted by our rationally priced imports. Our low cost structure will benefit from increased DRI production capacity as our new Louisiana facility completes it start-up process this year. Our commitment to achieve commercial excellence by leveraging Nucor's competitive advantages, such as product diversity and operational flexibility to create more value for and build stronger relationships with each of our customers, and most importantly Nucor’s employees, the right people. They are our company’s greatest asset and our greatest competitive advantage. Here are just a few of their 2014 achievements, implementing our strategy of investing a long-term profitable growth. In the fourth quarter, our Nucor remodel structure steel mills began client production of its new sheet filing sections. The initial output was sold to Skyline Steel, a Thailand distributor and will be installed next month at a construction project in New Jersey. Nucor model expanded its product portfolio to include wider filing sections that are wider and stronger covering more area at a lower install cost. The market with these high value added mix products is currently [indiscernible]. In addition to taking advantage, of Nucorean models world class structural steel manufacturing capabilities. Our customers will benefit from this new domestic solution which will create valuable strategies with the other products and services offered by Skyline Steel. Acquired in 2012, Skyline is the market leader in its business with an unreliable package of engineering support, stocking locations, processing centers and dedicated sales teams. In 2014, Nucor’s Steel Hertford County’s plate mill leveraged their T-trading capabilities to capture a growing share of the market for value-added plate products. For example, in 2014, Hertford County has more than doubled its share of the bridge market during the current steel industry down. Over the same period, shipments to higher margin OEM customers have doubled as a percent of mill’s total volume. These value-added products are also less vulnerable to pressure from commodity influence. Our Nucor steel Berkeley sheet Mills successful start up in 2014of its wide light capital project continued to build momentum. Shipments in the new wide light products totalled over a 120,000 tonnes in the first year. Berkeley now has the lightest, hot rolled gauge capacity capability of any sheet mill in the Southern U.S. market and with a finished product width up to 72 inches. We estimate the size of the new market segment now available to Berkeley to be approximately 4 million tonnes annually. Of particular importance, the upgrade allows Nucor to produce thinner, high strength field grade that could be used to develop light weight automotive applications. In closing, based upon all of these strategic factors and the faith, the absolute faith, I have in our team’s ability to face and overcome challenges, I remain very confident that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor. We will now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Luke Folta with Jefferies.
Luke Folta - Jefferies:
Hi! Good afternoon.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon, Luke. How are you?
Luke Folta - Jefferies:
Good. First question is on, in the release you talked about what you're expecting in terms of demand in First Quarter and you made some comments around an expectation for significantly lower scrap prices. Just trying to get a sense, if you could give us some more color around what your price expectations are heading into 1Q? What takes into the assumption that earnings should be slightly higher year on year, and also, if you could give us some sense of what your LIFO expectation would be as well that would be helpful.
John Ferriola:
Let me start with the first part of the question and I’ll turn over to Jim for the rightful comments. Let me start by saying that our first quarter outlook is based upon what we see today in the current scrap pricing. As I mentioned in the script, there are numerous reasons why we believe that that pricing will decline dramatically in the early part of the year, we believe probably in the first quarter. One of the biggest drivers for that is when you look at our steel pricing, our steel pricing has already gone down, hence, the decrease in those products maybe $50 to $100 per tonne. As a result, scarp pricing has to follow that steel pricing down. We see the steel pricing under pressure because of the imports that are coming in as produced with iron ore giving them a cost advantage to the overall scrap market that has said, we believe will adjust. There is certainly lot of reasons we believe that we are going to see the scarp pricing drop significantly over the next couple of months. It got the strength of the U.S. dollar, global scrap markets are low, scrap imports are bound to start coming in and as I mentioned decreased demand for steel scrap as a result of decreased production of steel because of the pressure that we’re seeing both because of the import being produced by the iron ore, and because of the iron the oil pricing as we mentioned in the script. So given these reasons, we believe very strongly that we will see a dramatic drop in scrap pricing in the first quarter. The other thing that I wanted to mention is that we are seeing some impact on lag of the scrap pricing moves due to the inventories in our mill. So we are currently, in our mills higher priced scrap because there's usually a four to six week lead time and a lag time in our use of the inventories. So given all of those reasons, we believe that a
Jim Frias:
Yes, little more assuming, $25 million LIFO credit for the year, and obviously if metal prices fall as dramatically as we think they could we will end up having a larger credit, just bigger advance but we’re going to start the year off looking -- I think it comes to $6.5 million in expense in first quarter for a 25 million annualized base.
Luke Folta - Jefferies:
Okay, so just to be clear, whenever the scarp move that we could see in February, I think last update, some of the people we were talking to were looking for down 30 to 50, maybe that’s changed over the past week or so. But your expectation now would be, your guidance were based on today’s scrap price before the down movement in February or that would be included in that?
Jim Frias:
Luke as John has explained, we tend to have scrap in the ground and so when we made the forecast we are assuming that the benefit of foreign scrap price because we don’t know if it’s going to fully come through in February or late in the March that will just start to see some of the benefit in March and so if we see it sooner, our results could be better. But our forecast probably is a big concern in terms of we seeking any benefit from scrap prices if that helps. We will like here to specific numbers and I frankly don’t have that it’s a bottoms up forecast for every business unit, individually making a forecast.
Luke Folta - Jefferies & Company:
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just the second one, in terms of your energy demand, your shipments. John, I think you said it was 10% or so of your total steel shipments. Can you give us some sense of how that breaks out by product from flat-roll versus SBQ? And anything in terms of the magnitude of how that's changed just over the past month or so, or in the First Quarter, would be very helpful, thank you.
John Ferriola:
The vast majority of the horizontal sheet products are about three quarters of our shipments not of sheet products maybe 75% to 80% of a small amount that comes out of SBQ. As I mentioned we've seen a significant adjustment by our customers to produce it, pipe and tube that's into the oil business. They are adjusting their inventories and we will see an impact upon our order book. But I do want to stress as I mentioned several times in the script, the investments that we’ve made over the last several years in diversifying our products and our markets will help us get through this period. Just as one of [indiscernible] of information when you look at just in 2014 is about 700,000 tonnes of products that is either new or value-added product or product we can now supply into markets and we could not supply into previous to these investments. So although we’re going to be taking a hit on the oil and gas, no doubt about it, 10% of our shipments are linked to that. We believe that through the investments that we've made in diversifying our products will mitigate that impact. I'll also stress as I mentioned in the script that 50% of oil products go into non-residential construction and we expect to see continued improvement in that market.
Luke Folta - Jefferies & Company:
Thanks for the color.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Matt Murphy with Union Bank Switzerland.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank:
Good afternoon. The question is just on, I guess your order book -- I mean how do you, what sense are you getting, are customers holding off waiting for the market to find a bottom or are you finding pretty healthy inquiries out there?
Jim Frias:
Other than the pipe and tube that's oil and gas related, the rest of the markets are okay. Now certainly there's a lot of doubt about what’s going to happen, both on pricing, but I think more particularly on what the customers view might happen with scrap pricing which is why I am once again emphasizing that it’s an unusual event where we are going to see scrap pricing following steel pricing down, typically it’s reversed. This time because of the pressure from imports and from our competition that is ore based, we are seeing the inverse effect take place. Steel pricing has gone down before scrap pricing. We believe that quite, as I mentioned scrap pricing will follow it down and it will happen pretty quickly and pretty dramatically, but again it is following the steel pricing down. Not the other way around. And I think our customers understand that and so as they are not expecting large price decreases as scrap continues to rebound because we've already seen the impact of that on our pricing. One other, important that I mention, in terms of just booking as a general statement. We talked about imports being high and although we’ve been successful in some of our trade cases on rebar and hot-rolled coil and wire rod, there's still a lot of imported steel that's in inventory that is impacting our order book. We’ll see that from the next couple of months.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank:
Sure. That's helpful. And then when you talk about repeatedly your strategy of going into higher end product, how are you finding competition from imports in the higher end categories? And if that remains a better business for Nucor than for imports, is it fair to say maybe we would see imports continuing to attack in some of the lower end applications? So maybe you don't get the volume growth, but you still get the margin growth from the higher end products? Maybe if you could just talk through how that might look, thanks.
Jim Frias:
Well clearly, the higher value products have a greater resistivity to imports as well as having higher margins, so you kind of get a double benefit of that. In terms of your comment about we expect to see volumes not growing, I would not agree with that statement. We expect to see our volumes grow the higher value added products just as we continue to develop them being more and more market share. And it’s always been Nucor’s policy, we don’t give up on the lower commodity products. Okay. We're in this game across the full spectrum. We are just as interested in maintaining our market share in rebar as we are developing the advanced high strength steels. We'll grow in all of the products that are out there. As we’ll not concede market share easily to be our competitors or from [indiscernible] importing pressure will continue [indiscernible] in other words, we will gain higher ground without giving up what we already have. Does that answer your question?
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank:
Perfect, thanks.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Good afternoon every one. Question for you, I am guessing Jim, you’re probably following this literally in the playing field act that Senator Blair introduced last December and I was just wondering if you kind of walk us through what that might actually mean for the steel industry? How could that benefit Nucor and this might be asking too much but you're handicapping whether such legislation might be able to make it to Republican Congress?
John Ferriola:
I am going to ask our political guru, to answer that question to the level that we can answer it.
Jim Frias:
If that may the equation, it’s going to be good for us but something that’s very difficult to get through the system. So I really don't want to do answer it on this call but I'd be happy to talk to you afterwards.
Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay, so you will let me call after the --
John Ferriola:
Give us a call later in the day or tomorrow and we will give you some more color on that.
Evan Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Great. I will definitely follow up. Maybe I'll just ask about the trade case on the coated [indiscernible] products. Where does that stand right now, know it's hung up a little bit because of the concerns about the injury determination. With pricing rolling over as much as it has over the past quarter, are we getting a little bit closer to the point where we may actually see something pretty soon?
John Ferriola:
I am not going to answer that specifically. I will say that like a general statement that we will be proactive, and we will be aggressive. The level of import is infringing at which absolutely ridiculous levels, and we believe that there's a potential for action coming up. We're monitoring the situation very closely, and that we will be aggressive. We look back at the last couple of cases and the success. And we’ve had all those cases. We had the rebar case against Mexico. We were very successful in that case, and we saw rebar imports from Mexico reduced by about 70%. We've seen wire rod, the case against China, result in virtually eliminating the Chinese wire rod from the US market. And finally I would mention the suspension agreement, the elimination of suspension agreement for hot rolled coil, against Russia. And we’re seeing significant, and we anticipate continuing to see significant reductions in Russian hot rolled coil coming into the country. So based upon those recent successes, we’ve got pretty good about our chances going forward. I am going to leave with that. We’ll monitor it closely. We will be aggressive and we will be proactive in pursuing cases when it is appropriate.
Operator:
And we will take our next question from Sal Tharani from Goldman Sachs.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
Good afternoon. A couple of questions. First on the end markets, more than 50% is non brand 10% energy; anything big you want to mention after these two?
John Ferriola:
I would mention, as we mentioned several times in past calls, automotive. We’re looking at about 10% of our automotive qualified steels will go in today, 10% of our steels that are qualified steels will go in today, 10% of our steels that are qualified going to automotive. We're shipping into that sector. If we look at our total tonnage, about 5% of that will be going for automotive today. Usually we don’t normally count structural steel beams and not much of that will be going to the automotives. We don’t factor that in. But if you look at what is possibly going to automotive, we’re shipping about 10% of that flat-rolled SBQ into automotive today. SBQ has just picked up a little bit in SBQ over the last year. It might have bumped up about 11%. But again, flat steel represents the vast majority of product that we're putting into automotive factory.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
And you postponed drilling this year. How long can you do that? Is that part of contract? Or do you pay if gas prices to remain low? Do you have ability to continue postponing it?
John Ferriola:
We could continue to postpone it as long as we and our partner Encana agree to do that. And as we've mentioned several times we have a great relationship with and we constantly communicate with them. We made a decision this year to suspend drilling other than the few wells that are necessary to maintain the results. And we will take a look at the situation again during the course of the year. If we should see a sudden increase, sporadical increase in pricing, we'll begin drilling and if we don’t we will suspend it again. The key thing to remember about this agreement is that the gas is in the ground. It’s not evaporating. It’s not going anywhere. It’s there waiting for the right, the optimum opportunities for us to take it out of the ground.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
Are you hedged for gas this year?
John Ferriola:
We are partially hedged for gas. It's a percentage of production at the Louisiana plant, which we're using, obviously at our Steel Mills that are operating.
Q – Sal Tharani – Goldman Sachs:
Great. I'll get back in the line with some more questions. Thank you.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Yu – Citigroup:
Great, thanks. I want to go back to the comment you made earlier about the scrap prices. And as I think about it, at first it is going to start with the scrap yards. And I was wondering if you can share with us, what's happening with the buy prices that you're getting at the yards that you operate? How much are those down say as you go into February?
John Ferriola:
I'm not going to give specific numbers, but I will say that they are down significantly and we expect that and we’re reacting properly to it. But I'm not going to give obviously any specific numbers. Our competitors would love to hear that number.
Brian Yu – Citigroup:
Okay. On the energy side, obviously that's having an impact. Can you give us a sense of how much have orders dropped so far in the year versus, say, what you were seeing back in 4Q? And is there any backlogs when you ship to the OCTG manufacturers that you're working off of now?
Jim Frias:
Yeah. There is a small backlog that we are working all the way through. We are working with our customers. We understand the situation that they face and the inventory problems that they're looking at. So, we've been working with them on that. As I said before, we've seen significant drop in the orders for our flat-rolled product going into oil and gas. Our other markets remained very strong. Heavy truck is still looking very good. Automotive is still looking very good. So, there are areas where we feel confident that our order book remains strong. We have seen a significant drop in our orders for specifically pipe and tube that goes into the energy markets.
Brian Yu – Citigroup:
Okay, can I get one more in?
Jim Frias:
You got one more that's it?
Brian Yu – Citigroup:
All right, thanks. Gallatin, I think roughly half of the shipments go into the energy markets. Are there other end markets at that facility?
John Ferriola:
I don’t know. I apologize, but I've got to correct you right off of the bat. It's true that about half of their product is the pipe and tube. But the vast majority of that goes into structural tubing and we’re about 10% of Gallatin products, shipments going to energy related pipe and tube, which is similar to our number here in Nucor.
Operator:
We will go next to Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I wanted to just ask you about there's some talk about blast furnaces, iron capacity in response to the level of import and the destocking on energy tubular as you mentioned. Just two questions I guess, one is how long do you think this destocking might last? And secondly, would Nucor be among those that's pre-emptively idling some capacity in response to a large level of import?
John Ferriola:
Well, it's hard to predict how long this is going to last. That's somewhat of a function of how long and how deep the oil pricing situation goes on. And you get all kinds of predictions on that. It’s frankly, as far as I'm concerned, if anyone guesses at this point and entirely up to the producers and how much oil they start pumping out of the ground. But currently, if we were to remain at today’s levels of oil pricing, and we look at the inventories we will be looking at probably around six to seven or eight months of inventory on the ground at today’s usage. Now having said that, there is always a stop to a system when something has a radical change and we see that happening today. Big change people throughout the entire supply chain are caught with inventory on hands, it’s a radical, it’s a major change, major reduction in the orders. Even then there will be a period of time when all of this works out and starts flushing through. And we'll begin to see the orders for pipe and tube going to energy returning to a new normal level, albeit less than where it was. But there will be some level greater than wordings today, but less than where it was a year ago. The other thing that I would mention about that is that you asked about shutting off, reducing our capacity. As you know, Timna, our furnaces are extremely flexible. We make that decision on a weekly basis. We want our mills to fill orders and giving our wearable cost structure and the flexible schedules that we have we can react extremely quickly that any changes whether or not we see some improvement in that energy market quicker than we anticipated or whether we see enough tick in one or the other markets we stand ready to be very quick in responding to any changes in the market. Again when you compare our operations to those of the blast furnace, clearly once you shutdown a blast furnace it's down for awhile and we have much greater flexibility. We don’t need to shutdown an EAF. We can simply skip a couple of heat, so skip a couple of shift and come back in a couple of days if we see the order book warranting that.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. If I could, I also just wanted to see if you could give a little bit more color on the plate and SBQ markets, given that they have some energy exposure, and just haven't heard as much about them lately.
John Ferriola:
We haven’t seen much of an impact on either the plate or the SBQ markets. Now certainly there is some small amount, but a lot of our plate that goes into what we would call energy might go in to wind towers and other applications that really are impacting this heavily by the oil price going down. Because I mentioned earlier SBQ does, so a little bit into that. It’s been growing. We've been focused on that as a growth area, but it's not that heavy for us. When we see the bigger impact frankly, on our order book in both SBQ and, particularly in plates is due to the imports. So we see some impact due to the oil pricing but frankly a larger impact due to imports.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay, thank you very much.
John Ferriola:
Timna, one more thing that I might mention that, you mentioned specifically about the plate market. When you think about some of the infrastructure, although it's coming way too slowly, there are some infrastructure repairs being made particularly in the bridge. And there's a couple bridges going on. Some bridge fabrication, bridge repair and our plate business is doing well in that area. So we’re seeing some pickup in our plate order book as a result of general infrastructure and particularly bridge fabrication.
Operator:
We will take our next question from Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan.
Michael Gambardella - JPMorgan:
I have a question just about this whole change in the raw material market share, particularly with the stock move and the lack of the scrap move, I guess relative to iron ore in past six months. But when you look forward, I would think in the next few months, it will be a great opportunity to gain share particularly on the sheet market not to close down your production because if you’re not ready, you're going to become the low cost producer in market for sheet. And when you look at the sheet market, it’s about two thirds iron ore integrated based on about a third, even the rest of mini-mills on the sheet side and you've been suffering from a relative cost disadvantage because scrap didn’t come down relative to iron ore in the last six months and now it is. So, going forward you've kind of seen the worst scenario. You relative to integrated [Licax] [ph] and AK. But isn't there a great opportunity to pick up some share as your costs drop and their costs basically don't?
John Ferriola:
I’ll say that we have seen the worst of the times relative to opposition because we do believe scrap is coming down. I will point out that we fared a little bit better on our cost side relative to most of EAF-based competitors because of our DRI situation. We call that with the iron ore pricing going down, our DRI cost of production has been going down also. And so we've seen benefit at our Trinidad facility and we will see a benefit as our Louisiana facility comes back into line. So, yes, we believe we've seen worse of the times. Okay. Yes, we see scrap pricing going down and we will benefit from that. Yes, we played better than our other competitors in the EAF arena because of our DRI capabilities. I'm not going to [indiscernible] what all that means going forward. We will stay competitive. We will take care of our customer needs. We will continue to supply our customers with high quality, fairly priced product on time with great service. And we will see how it plays out in the market place.
Michael Gambardella – JPMorgan:
Okay.
Operator:
And we will go next to Andrew Lane with Morningstar
Andrew Lane - Morningstar:
Given the significant declines in both iron ore and natural gas prices since this time last year, do you expect to achieve profitable DRI production in Louisiana shortly after the facility is restarted? Or will it likely take some time to ramp up production before your output is profitable?
John Ferriola:
Well, it will take some time to ramp up our production and it will also take some time to work through the iron and higher cost iron ore inventory that we have on the ground, iron ore that was purchased last year, that we have now worked all way through because the facility has been out of commission. So it will take time to work through that inventory and it will take some time to get up to full production. But we expect to see the Louisiana facility running well and profitable by the end of the ear.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar:
Okay, great. And then to change gears, you mentioned that the energy end market represents about 10% of your steel mill shipments. Could you provide a split as to how much of that total is directly associated with the shipments for oil and gas drilling projects, and how much is associated with shipments for other energy related applications, such as power generation?
John Ferriola:
We don’t break it down that definitively. I would say to you that probably, if you look at the energy pipe and tube as opposed to other oil and gas applications, you're looking at probably 90% going directly into the energy pipe and tube that would be associated with drilling, maybe 10%, and that would be rough numbers here, maybe 80:20, 90:10 somewhere in that area.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar:
Okay, that's helpful, thanks. If I can just ask one last question. Would you be able to provide an update as to how the integration process is going through the Gallatin Steel operations? And are the incremental 2015 benefits you initially expected still intact?
John Ferriola:
I would love to do that actually. The integration is going extremely well. We expected that it would go well. The team there is a great team and management style. Their culture is very similar to our Nucor culture. So we anticipated a smooth integration. But I have to tell you what, its gone even better than we anticipated. Those guys is doing a great job. The financial team there, I’d give a call out to them, they very-very quickly integrated into our financial programs. I am surrounded by some financial people in the room here and they are all nodding their head, saying what a great job, the Gallatin financial team did, in getting up to speed very quickly, converting the systems, integrating the systems. I would also make that statement relative to the commercial team. They integrated extremely well with our commercial team. We're enjoying the synergies that we’ve anticipated from that and it’s going great.
Operator:
And this does conclude the question and answer portion of today’s conference call. I would like to turn the call back over to John Ferriola for comments and closing remarks.
John Ferriola:
Well, thank you. Let me just conclude by saying thank you to our shareholders. We certainly appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate your business. I want to say thank you to all of my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainable future generating a attractive returns for our shareholders and building a substantial future for all of us. And most importantly thank you all for doing it safely. And for everyone on the call today, thank you for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
And this does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for you participation.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President of Raw Materials
Analysts:
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Philip Ross Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation Third Quarter of 2014 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found on Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available at the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligation to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola:
Good afternoon. This is John Ferriola, Nucor's Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James D. Frias:
Thanks, John. Third quarter of 2014 earnings of $0.76 per diluted share compares favorably with our guidance range of $0.70 to $0.75 per diluted share. It also represents a strong 65% improvement from earnings of $0.46 per share, per diluted share, reported in both the second quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2013. A comment about our tax rates, which can be confusing due to the impact of profits from noncontrolling interests. After adjusting out profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 34.6% for the third quarter of 2014. Results from our steel mills and steel product segments were significantly improved in third quarter of 2014, particularly improved profitability was achieved by our sheet plate and joist and decking businesses. The third quarter performance of our raw materials segment included a larger-than-expected operating loss of approximately $0.09 per diluted share at our new direct reduced iron, or DRI, plant in Louisiana. Nucor's overall third quarter performance again demonstrates the value of one of our key competitive strengths. We are North America's most diversified producer of steel and steel products. Our sheet mills did an excellent job of capitalizing on pricing strength in flat-rolled markets this past quarter, but our robust earnings growth was also driven by increased contributions from a number of other product lines. Our plate mill group is benefiting from the investments made during the downturn to expand our value-added product capabilities with the addition of heat treating, normalizing and vacuum tank degassing. All 3 of our fabricated construction products, joist and decking, preengineered metal buildings and rebar fabrication delivered significant earnings improvements in this year's third quarter and the first 9 months. At the same time, we continue to enjoy healthy earnings contributions from our bar mills, cold finish B mills and raw materials brokerage businesses. David J. Joseph Company's scrap processing business has also achieved improved profitability over this period. As John mentioned, the entire Nucor team is working hard to deliver attractive returns on the capital we have invested during the downturn. Our investments totaled nearly $6 billion over 2009 through 2014 period, with about 2/3 going to capital expenditures and 1/3 going to acquisitions. We believe the robust 59% increase in earnings year-over-year through the first 9 months of 2014 is strong evidence that these efforts are beginning to pay off for our shareholders. Most importantly, we believe that this is only an early indication of greater earnings power to come as continued recovery in nonresidential construction gains momentum. On October 8, we completed our purchase of all the equity of Gallatin Steel for a cash purchase price of approximately $770 million. The acquisition was funded from cash on hand and the issuance of approximately $300 million of commercial paper. Drawing from Nucor's strong generation of cash from operations, we expect to retire our commercial paper borrowings within the next 12 months. Our team is excited about the opportunities the Gallatin acquisition provides Nucor to create attractive long-term value for our shareholders, customers and employees. Adjusting for the next -- for the net present value of the anticipated tax benefits, the realized effective purchase price is approximately $630 million. The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to cash flow and accretive to earnings after working through purchase accounting value to finished goods inventories. Due to Gallatin's 4-week inventory turnover rate, we would expect purchase accounting expenses, net of operating profits, to result in a negligible impact to the fourth quarter of 2014 results. John Ferriola will discuss in his comments the compelling strategic value Gallatin provides Nucor. The Gallatin transaction highlights the strategic value of our company's financial strength. Nucor is the only North American steel producer to hold an investment-grade credit rating. Our strong balance sheet and healthy cash flow generation through the economic cycle allow Nucor to make strategic acquisitions when the right assets at the right price become available in the marketplace. Our cash and short-term investments totaled $1.4 billion at the end of the third quarter. Following the purchase of Gallatin, after the close of the quarter, cash and short-term investments remain well above our targeted minimum level of $500 million. Nucor's strong liquidity position also includes our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn. This facility does not mature until August of 2018. Our next significant debt maturity is not until 2017, including the recently issued commercial paper of Nucor's pro forma gross debt-to-capital ratio is approximately 37%. We continue to estimate our 2014 capital spending will be approximately $600 million. That would be a significant decline from capital expenditures that exceeded $1 billion in both 2013 and 2012. Most of our recent large-scale growth projects have been completed or are nearing completion. Also, the temporary suspension of drilling new wells by our natural gas working interest investment is reducing Nucor's 2014 capital spending by about $400 million. We recently reached a joint decision with Encana, our working interest investment partner, to extend our drilling suspension through the end of 2015, other than drilling several wells required to maintain leasehold rights. Nucor's strong relationship with Encana gives both partners a win-win approach to deploying capital in the current natural gas price environment. We, together, retain the valuable option to resume drilling in a higher natural gas pricing environment where more attractive returns are generated. Nucor also maintains our desired hedge on gas consumption for decades into the future. It is important to note that our Louisiana DRI plant's expected gas usage in 2015 and 2016 is covered by production from our existing wells, plus financial hedges we have recently secured. Nucor's capital spending plans for 2015 will not be set until later this quarter. With no new major projects currently anticipated, we would expect next year's capital expenditures to be approximately $500 million. That would compare against a preliminary estimate of 2015 depreciation and amortization of approximately $700 million. Nucor Steel Gallatin is expected to account for approximately $40 million of that estimated total depreciation and amortization expense for next year. Fourth quarter 2014 earnings are expected to show a moderate decline from strong third quarter earnings due to typical seasonal factors, but should be well above 2013 fourth quarter earnings of $0.53 per diluted share. Nucor will again follow our practice of providing quantitative guidance in the final month of the quarter. The biggest risk to our outlook for our industry continues to be excess global steel capacity that has resulted in large quantities of steel illegally dumped into the United States. Nucor and other steel producers in the U.S. are working hard to bring attention to the need for free and fair trade, which is simply rules-based trade as established by the World Trade Organization or WTO. We applaud several recent actions by the U.S. government to enforce our nation's trade laws. Last week, the U.S. Department of Commerce notified the Russian government that it is terminating the suspension agreement for hot-rolled sheet steel imports. Russian hot-rolled sheet imports have surged by more than 2,500% or 25x in the first 9 months of 2014. The suspension agreement will be replaced by an anti-dumping duty order, which we expect to be more effective. Earlier this month, the U.S. International Trade Commission, in a unanimous 6-0 vote, ruled that the domestic rebar industry is materially injured as a result of dumped and subsidized rebar imports from Turkey and Mexico. In August, the ITC found that domestic oil country tubular goods, or OCTG, producers were materially damaged by dumped and subsidized imports of OCTG from South Korea and 5 other countries, and duties have been assessed by the Commerce Department. Nucor is the market leader in serving these highly valued customers in the pipe and tube industry. In July, the Commerce Department issued positive preliminary determinations on dumping duties against wire rod imports from China. While we are encouraged by these several rulings, we realize that more work remains in a fight for effective and timely enforcement of rules-based trade. Supporting our mission is the indisputable fact that our domestic industry is among the lowest-cost producers of steel in the world. As always, our team will remain focused on executing our strategies for profitable long-term growth in whatever economic and steel industry conditions we face. We appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John J. Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. During the third quarter, our team stayed focused on what is under our control today. I'm very encouraged by our performance in the just-completed quarter and first 9 months of 2014. Nucor delivered solid earnings growth in what are still very challenging steel market conditions. First and foremost, each day, we pursue continual improvement in the job we do, taking care of all of Nucor's customers. At the same time, our team continues to aggressively implement our strategy of investing for long-term profitable growth. I will now update you on our recent achievements. Our targeted acquisition of Gallatin Steel is a significant step forward in building a long-term earnings power of our sheet mill group and Nucor overall. Here are some of the key strategic benefits. Nucor -- excuse me, Gallatin enhances Nucor's leadership position in the flat-rolled hot band products market. Gallatin strengthens Nucor's capabilities to serve the flat-rolled customers in the growing pipe and tube industry. Gallatin broadens our footprint in the Midwest region, which is the largest flat-rolled consuming market in the United States. Gallatin's location on the Ohio River strongly complements our raw materials strategy as it is well positioned to receive DRI from our Louisiana facility. Gallatin represents Nucor's fourth sheet mill located on the U.S. river system, broadening our commercial reach and access to our materials. Gallatin's annual capacity of approximately 1.8 million tons increases our hot-rolled sheet steel capacity by 16% to more than 13 million tons. Gallatin also fits well with Nucor's footprint of downstream businesses that consume and process flat-rolled steel. Finally, Gallatin provides a number of future strategic growth options for Nucor. Most importantly, we share a strong cultural compatibility with our new teammates at Nucor Steel Gallatin. Particularly significant is the common, unrelenting focus on safety, quality and productivity. We are very excited about the many opportunities ahead for profitable growth with having the Gallatin team join the Nucor family. In the fourth quarter, our Nucor-Yamato structural steel mill will begin prime production of its new sheet piling sections. Results from the production trials completed in the third quarter were very positive. This $115 million project expands our product offerings to include new, wider piling sections that are lighter and stronger, covering more area at a lower installed cost. This investment strengthens our market position in the piling business. It also allows us to realize more synergies from our strategic 2012 acquisition of piling distributor, Skyline Steel. Our Nucor Steel Berkeley sheet mill's successful start-up this year of its wide, light capital project continues to build momentum. During the third quarter, our Berkeley team produced new, wider products for several customers in the appliance and lawn and garden offerings. This $95 million investment provides Berkeley the capability to roll gauges as thin as 0.042 inches, which is the lightest hot-rolled gauge capability of any sheet mill in the Southern U.S. market. Berkeley's capabilities also provide a finished width of up to 72 inches. We estimate the size of the new market segment now available to Berkeley to be approximately 4 million tons annually. During the third quarter, our new Louisiana DRI facility continued to work through equipment adjustments that will improve yield and conversion costs. There is no question that the start of this plant has been very challenging in the early going, but that's no different from what we experienced in starting off our first DRI plant, which is located in Trinidad. What has been different with the Louisiana start-up has been the additional burden of today's low raw material pricing environment. However, a significant positive achievement in the start-up this year at Nucor Steel Louisiana is the outstanding quality achieved by our team. As we have discussed in previous calls, Louisiana has set new world-class quality standards for DRI with metallization rates of 96% and carbon content exceeding 4%. That's why our flat-rolled and SBQ steel mills are eager to consume as much of Louisiana's output as they can get. As a result of our cumulative learning curve advances and resulting equipment adjustments, we expect to realize significant improvement in the financial performance of the Louisiana DRI plant by the end of this year. It also remains our view that our expanded DRI capacity, combined with our natural gas investments, uniquely positions Nucor for profitable long-term growth in the higher value-added sheet, plate and SBQ markets. Recent significant declines in iron ore pricing, accompanied by relatively more stable scrap pricing, currently supports our confidence in the value of Nucor's DRI-based raw materials strategy. We are very encouraged by the Nucor team's progress in the third quarter, but we are never satisfied. That is why the more than 22,000 men and women of Nucor remain strongly focused on execution and delivering strong returns on the valuable capital entrusted to us by our shareholders. As has been true throughout Nucor's history, our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor and sharing your valuable time with us this afternoon. We would now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
So first question is on the trade case, specifically the potential trade case, I should say, on cold-rolled products and some coated sheet products that we keep hearing about. Kind of the latest I've heard is that there may be some disagreements amongst some of the mills that are involved in the case about the breadth of the case, and that may be delaying it. And I'm just hoping you guys could kind of give us an update and let us know what could debottleneck that process?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, I can't speak to others' opinions on this history, but I can share with you Nucor's opinion. When you look at the increase in cold-rolled imports this year, they've increased by about 100%; galv has increased almost 50% year-over-year. As I mentioned to you on the last time on the last conference call, I have been spending a lot of time in Washington, and I've gained more confidence in our elected leaders' ability to connect the dots between the illegally traded products and the slow recovery in the economy. That said, specific to your question, we are working with our trade attorneys in Washington to collect the data that we're going to need to file the case at the appropriate time. We are confident in our ability to present a good case, and we will present that case aggressively, and we will aggressively pursue critical circumstances with the associated retroactive penalties.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Great. And then maybe just one question on DRI. How do you, when you report losses, how do you factor in the revenue? Are you basing that off of a discount to pig iron price? Or is it more based on some mix of scrap? How should we think about that?
John J. Ferriola:
We price internally based off of pig iron with a value-in-use adjustment.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Got it, okay. And then one last question maybe on Gallatin. Have you got any chance to kind of go in there and see what commercial practices have been like? Is there any changes that you think you might want to make going forward?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, we have just closed just a few weeks ago, so we haven't had a lot of time to go in and look at what they have been doing. What I can tell you is -- what I can speak to is what they will be doing more in the future, and that's working with our commercial team, as we always do, to present a single one-Nucor approach to the marketplace. We will follow our practice of not having any CRU or any index-minus pricing in the marketplace. And we will continue to provide a great value to our customers at a fair price. We're anxious to have them join our team. As I mentioned during my comments, it does give us a better presence in the Midwest. It supports our mill in Crawfordsville. It's on the water, and it's going to give us ability to reach into the Southeast market as well as the Midwest market. And we have a very strong position today in the growing pipe and tube market, and this just enhances that. They have a great position in that also. We share some customers, but frankly, not many. So this is a great chance for us to expand our geographical reach, to expand our product breadth, and frankly, to expand our customer base.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Jim, I wanted to ask you a question about your comment earlier about the U.S. steel-making cost advantage. As you know, the domestic scrap prices are about flat, while in the international markets, Turkey scrap import cost is down $50. China is down $100, and then the drop in iron ore and met coal translates to about $100 per ton drop for blast furnace costs. How do you see this playing out, either from a market standpoint or actions that Nucor can take to try to narrow some of the gap?
John J. Ferriola:
Okay, well, let me -- I'll give Jim a chance to add any comments that he wants at the end, but I will -- let me start by making a couple of comments. First of all, as you mentioned, because of the lower-priced scrap in areas like Turkey and all those places, the United States will not -- and combined with the higher dollar value, the United States will not be exporting more scrap at all to those regions, which will give us a bit of an excess of scrap here in the United States, which should help our scrap pricing of our product. But bear in mind that scrap, although it's a significant input cost, it's one of many input costs, particularly in electric arc furnaces where scrap is consumed. Electrical energy, it's a very large cost, and we have a significant cost advantage here in the United States compared to those regions that you mentioned. Natural gas could be another example where we have an energy benefit. As I've mentioned a couple of times in the past, one of the greatest benefits we have is the productivity and the ingenuity of the American worker. And here at Nucor, we have the added benefit of the DRI, which, in fact, benefits from the lower iron ore pricing that you mentioned in other regions of the country. When you think about how iron ore and scrap has behaved over the last year, it's kind of an interesting situation. Iron ore pricing is down about 42%. Scrap pricing is down about 14% so far this year. So that kind of points to the benefit. With those kind of numbers, it pays to be able to have an input into your furnaces that's based on iron ore pricing such as our DRI. And I would also point out that, that's the way it is today, but that reverses. It has reversed in the past; it will reverse again in the future, which again points to one of the great strengths of our DRI strategy and our overall raw materials strategy by having both the DJ Joseph as part of the Nucor family and the ability to produce 4.5 million tons of DRI. We have the flexibility to flip back our product -- our scrap mix if that relationship between scrap and iron ore does reverse. So kind of a long-winded answer to your question, certainly, we are cognizant of the situation with iron ore pricing and scrap pricing in countries that we compete with. As long as they continue to play fair, we feel confident because of the reasons that I've mentioned, that we will compete successfully against them. We say it all the time, we can compete against any company in the world and do so well. It's more difficult when we have to compete against governments, and we will not allow that to happen.
James D. Frias:
Let me just add one thing, John, and that is, Brian, when you think about this question, at any point in time there could be temporary inflection points where raw material costs, whether it's scrap or iron ore, move in different markets to different places but they eventually equalizes -- they eventually equalize and balance each other out. And so my comments about our -- the U.S. being a low-cost producer is not at this exact moment today compared to everybody; but just over time, if you look at the historical numbers, it's well-documented that the U.S. is one of the low-cost producers in the world.
John J. Ferriola:
One more comment, if I may, on this. Obviously, you're leading to up to the point that, well, will all of this result in an even greater influx of imported steel into the United States? And certainly, we're keeping our eye on that situation. Jim's point about the raw material commodity eventually equalizing, well, the same happens with pricing the products. We'll monitor carefully what's happening with imports, and you'll see that gap that exists today in pricing begin to narrow. It'll narrow as a result of both the domestic price moderating and the foreign input price increasing. When you combine that with what's happening on some of the trade cases and the transportation issues that you see in the United States today once the product reaches a new port, all of that combined, we feel very confident that we can compete successfully despite the point that you made about the raw material costs in our competitive nations.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Good. That was a very comprehensive answer. And maybe I could just switch topics here, quickly. Just on the realized pricing side, you guys are getting -- the core-on-core increase in pricing is a bit better than what we've seen in the markets, and I was wondering if there's a way for you guys to help us understand what portion of that might be due to some of these value-add projects you put in place
John J. Ferriola:
I'm not sure that I could split -- spread that out, but I would -- but I'd make a few comments just to support the fact that it is a large portion of the value-added that we invested in.
James D. Frias:
At least in the plate business.
John J. Ferriola:
At least in the plate business. But I would also comment that it's more than just that. It's the value that we bring to our customers. It's the quality that we deliver. It's the service that we provide. It's the metallurgical support that I believe is the gold standard in the industry that we can give to our customers. And it's our focus on on-time delivery, which brings value. All of those items bring value to our customers.
James D. Frias:
Brian, further to those points, I don't think we've really seen the benefits at all yet from the sheet piling project. And we've just started to see the benefits from the new lighter gauge sheet steel at Berkeley. We're seeing some benefit, but again we're early in the process of getting the full benefit of that project. We guess, in the SBQ side, we're probably about halfway towards achieving some of the benefits of the things we've done there, not so much in the volume, but more on in terms of the pricing value-add element. And of course, there's going to be a volume benefit coming as well. I think -- maybe, John, you could speak about the status of the caster upgrades at both Memphis and Nebraska.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, we've completed both, okay. Memphis is finished and, of course, [ph] strand is completed. On the fifth strand in Nebraska, we're in the process of shutting down now to make the final installation. So they're moving along. We feel really good about when that was completed, all of the upgrades at Darlington. And we've got a little bit of tweaking to do, but basically we've completed that. So I would say that for the most part, by the end of the year, we will have completed virtually all of our SBQ modifications to add value. And let me just throw in one more point to Jim's comments, which were spot on. But bear in mind that the improvements that you're seeing in our performance, as Jim pointed out, we're just beginning to see the benefit of the investments that we're making. These -- all the improvements that you're seeing in our margins and our profitability are happening in a market that is still extremely challenged. We see this year, the marketplace in nonresidential construction having improved a little bit over last year, and we expect even further improvement next year. But when we see those markets return to the full strength that we know will inevitably be achieved, that's when you're going to see the full impact of these investments are bearing fruit for our company.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Just wondering if you could comment on what you're seeing in the structural market. I know you had a high year-over-year comparison, but only category where it was slightly weak year-over-year. Just wondering how you're seeing that market.
John J. Ferriola:
The structural market has always been a good market for us. It's holding pretty steady. We've seen it pick up a little bit this year. We expect next year to also be a little bit better in the structural market as we see the continued improvements in nonresidential construction. I would also tell you that we're really excited about, again, just the beginnings of what we see from our piling project. We expect a good benefit from that. In terms of this year's performance relative -- you asked about why we seem to have been a little bit off last year's performance. It's a result of all those shutdowns that we had at NYS, installing the wider piling project that we've mentioned several times.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. So still some pickup from the shutdown. Okay, got it. And Jim, just on SG&A at $153 million this quarter, was there anything in particular driving that up?
James D. Frias:
Well, we have a highly variable compensation system, profit-sharing system. So when profits go up, our profit-sharing expense goes up. 10% of pretax is how we fund our employees' retirement accounts. And of course, the other thing that went through there was the charge that we'd noted before on the write-off of assets. It was $0.03 per share.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
We're starting to hear a lot more enthusiasm over non-res and I thought you might have sounded a little bit more chipper on the topic. So I guess I wanted to dive into that a little bit more and ask you about long products in general. Specifically, can you hold onto margins? Scrap prices are definitely falling. You guys are importing it, and so that can help offset some other weakness. But just wondering if margins on long products might be holding up better if non-res is recovering.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, we think that -- and this is our opinion and also the opinion of the experts that go out and give these kind of estimates. We think this year -- by the end of this year relative compared to last year, you'll see somewhere around a 7% or 8% improvement in non-residential construction based on square footage. And we anticipate next year seeing maybe the same kind of growth, maybe a little bit better, somewhere between 7%, 8%, 9% growth in square footage next year. So that is certainly helping to support not only our structural business, but also our downstream businesses, our Vulcraft and Verco business, and frankly, our building systems business also. So yes, we see a pickup this year compared to last year. We see further improvement going forward into next year.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay. And on the marketing -- go ahead, sorry.
James D. Frias:
I was just going to say, Timna, our comments are generally focused more on the quarter, and we don't generally say that much about what's happening in the future. Obviously, the fourth quarter is going to have a seasonal slowdown. But the comment I made in the script or I talked about the building momentum is this idea that an improvement of 8% this year, another improvement of 8%, 10% next year in square footage orders, yes, there's going to be some value to that; and so we are in agreement that there is some nice momentum happening in non-res and starting to get back to a level that is more sustainable.
John J. Ferriola:
In terms of the margin, specifically, certainly, we're going to work really hard to maintain that margin. We think, as we mentioned in the script, that in the fourth quarter, we'll see some seasonal adjustments that happen every year, combination of the holidays and the weather. But we expect it to come back strong in the first quarter, and we look forward to a good year next year and we anticipate being able to hold onto those margins.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay, cool. And then if I could, just one more. Clearly, you're hinting, at this point at least, a pretty low CapEx number and assuming this growth that we're talking about, a lot of cash flow. Just so, can you remind us about how you're thinking about opportunities for that use of cash? Would you consider the special dividend that you've done in the past? Do you like the M&A opportunities that have presented themselves, maybe further ones ahead? If you could just give us a categorization of what you're seeing out there.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, I think it's -- I'll speak -- I'll let Jim speak to the special dividends, but I think it's -- I think I know where he's going to go with that one, okay, and appropriately so. Frankly, we're in a growth mode. We're a growth company, and we look for opportunities to grow the company. We believe that there's still plenty of opportunities out there. Remember that, as we talked about in the past, if we look at the way our company is structured, basically in the upstream, what we call core or side stream businesses, and our downstream businesses, we have numerous platforms in which we can grow, and that just multiplies the number of opportunities that we can look at out there. So we see opportunities downstream coming up that we're looking at. We have some upstream opportunities that we're continuing to look at. There's always the potential of expanding our DRI facility once we get past some of these typical start-up issues that we've been facing. And of course, you've seen what we've done with Gallatin. That was a great strategic opportunity, which not only provided us benefits today but positions us for other growth opportunities in that region. So I would not be looking to say that we're going to have a special dividend. I would say that a strong cash-generating position will be used to continue to grow the company, both in volume and in margin-enhancing improvements to our existing mills. And when the right acquisitions become available at the right price, we stand ready to aggressively pursue and be successful in acquiring them.
James D. Frias:
And the only thing I'd add, Timna, is that we strongly believe in our dividend and a strong base dividend and a really strong earnings cycle. We will contemplate the possibility of a supplemental dividend. We're not there yet. We need to be north of $1.25 per share before we start thinking about something like that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Sal Tharani with Goldman Sachs.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I have a couple of questions on DRI. First of all, forgive me if you have already -- just your DRI cost was much higher -- I'm sorry, the start-up cost was much higher. I was wondering, did something special happen versus what you gave as the guidance?
John J. Ferriola:
Let me take that one on, Jim, okay, because I'll address some of the -- I'll just kind of give you a little bit of history of the start-up and that has, obviously, impacted our costs that you're referring to. And there's no doubt we've had some start-up issues with our equipment in Louisiana. But I got tell you, we've been very happy with the technology. You all have to remember, this is not new technology. This is proven technology. And this year, it's the first year of operation and we've had -- in this first year, we've had some issues, but we've also had some periods of operation where the plant operated over 90% of capacity with excellent quality; quality that, frankly, can only be described as world class. Now frankly, I would say it's quality that we define as world-class quality. And let's remember that year-to-date, we produced about 1.2 million tons of DRI in just the first year of production. We expect to produce another 500,000-or-so tons in the fourth quarter. And when we've met that expectation, and we believe we will, we will have produced about 1.7 million tons of DRI or about 70% of the capacity rating of that plant in the first year of operation. And that's operating at 70% of capacity in the first year with outstanding quality. Now we've had some start-up issues and let's maybe take a minute, since you've asked about the impact of those, to talk about it. We did have a design issue that we had to deal with in the second quarter of this year. We rectified that design issue. That was the flow feeders, we removed them. We removed them to improve the yield and the productivity of the facility. When we accomplished that, when we took them out and started up, we saw that we did, in fact, kill the problem. We achieved the expected improvements in both productivity and in yield. The start-up's strong in the second quarter, but a few weeks into the second quarter -- excuse me, third quarter, we experienced a failure of several wells in the process gas heater tubes, which was, frankly, completely unexpected. We repaired the wells and the plant operated in a very stable manner for the next 56 continuous days with excellent quality. And late in Q3, we experienced another issue with our process gas heater completely unrelated to the first issue of the wells on the tubes. They're a refractory problem, again, in the process heater, creating a potential for overheating and damaging that piece of equipment. So we made a decision to shut down and perform the repairs before we damaged the equipment. The plant was down for about 2 weeks. We made the necessary repairs. Since the repairs in the third quarter, the plant has been operating very stable, and we are confident in the completeness of the repairs that we've made to the gas processor. Both unexpected issues, both problems were on the same piece of equipment, a single part of the DRI production process
James D. Frias:
Yes. And specifically to the comparison to what we were guiding, Sal, because our guidance was obviously for a smaller number. We were off by about $0.04. About $0.02 was the impact of the 2-week outage that happened right after we gave our guidance. And then the other $0.02 was related to -- each quarter end with a major capital project, we go through the details of the expenses that have been capitalized. And with all the work that was done in the third quarter on flow feeders and other things, we identified expenses that had been capitalized earlier in the quarter in July and August that we had to reverse into expenses that we didn't anticipate when we gave the guidance on September 17. So half of it was because of the issue that John talked about, the last one with the heat process...
John J. Ferriola:
Process gas.
James D. Frias:
Process gas, whatever they are. And the other $0.02 because of reviewing fixed asset accounting.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Great. No, this is good color, appreciate it. And running 70% of the first year is certainly a remarkable achievement. John, you mentioned about the...
John J. Ferriola:
Particularly, this is the largest DRI plant in the world, okay, that we're starting up. So we are very pleased with that.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Certainly, certainly. You also mentioned, John, that the way you look at your cost is -- or pricing is pig iron less a value-in-use adjustment. Do you -- have you shared or would you like to share the number, what that number is for the value-in-use adjustment?
John J. Ferriola:
That would be a no.
James D. Frias:
So it could change over time. I mean, we have a fixed number we're using now, but as we assess how DRI works in the process, we could come to the conclusion it needs to change. So we're doing basically what we think the real value is.
John J. Ferriola:
Yes, let me -- maybe I was a little bit too blunt there. Obviously, that -- at some point, we believe that there could be a merchant market for the DRI, so we don't want to give out of that information. But I will say this, that when we went into the project, we had a certain value-in-use penalty in mind, and again, as a result of the quality of the DRI that's coming out of Louisiana, it has performed much better than we anticipated in our furnaces. I think I mentioned in the past that we've seen a productivity increase. We've seen a decrease in our energy consumption as a result of the better quality coming out of that. We've seen a reduction in our electrical consumption. We've seen a reduction in our refractory life -- I mean, an improvement in our refractory life, excuse me, a reduction in our cost of refractors in the furnace. So we're really pleased, very, very pleased with the way that the product is performing in the furnace. And to Jim's point, as we continue to refine our process in Louisiana, we believe we can even hone in more carefully on a higher-quality product. And of course, as we learn to use the product more efficiently in our existing furnaces by changing our melt shop practices, that will also have a positive impact on the value-in-use.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Great. And one last thing, you mentioned that at Gallatin, you can do further improvements over time or move up the value chain or something. I was just wondering, that value you're going to get out of Gallatin in the future, is that expanding the capacity? Or is moving up the value chain in terms of putting cold over galvanized capacity or...
John J. Ferriola:
It would be moving up the value chain. There's many possibilities -- many possible ways of accomplishing that. At some point, we might put further processing in, in the plant or around the plant. I would also tell you that they've done a great job of establishing themselves in the pipe and tube market and known for good quality. As you know, some of our other sheet mills have expanded into higher-value products such as automotive, appliance, lawn and garden. There is absolutely no reason why we cannot transfer that knowledge from our mills to the mills at -- to the Gallatin mill. One area that I would specifically mention is the phenomenal work we've done at our other mills with high-strength, low-alloy steels and advanced high-strength steels. Those all go into additional margin and are value-added products that we can transfer without a lot of investment into the Gallatin facility.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Littlewood with Crédit Suisse.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Sal did ask most of my DRI questions, but I just had one on the gas hedging. Jim, I was surprised to hear you say just now that you had recently entered into some financial hedges for gas. My understanding previously had been that the Encana JV basically provided you with pretty much 100% of your gas requirements. Could you just help me sort of bridge the gap there and maybe [indiscernible] requirement...
James D. Frias:
Yes, it's good for 2014. I'm sorry, the process -- we have over 300 wells producing right now. And those wells provide enough gas to cover full usage this year. And as we go into 2015, I think we start the year with enough gas to cover it. But as the year goes on, the wells will be in a decline curve. If there comes a point, and we're not saying there's a specific point, but we've got a -- quarter-by-quarter, there's a different amount that, at some point, will start being just a little bit short and we're hedging that portion that will become short. But I don't think that even by the end of 2015, what's the -- it's still more than 50% is coming from...
R. Joseph Stratman:
[ph] Yes, I don't know the exact percentage...
James D. Frias:
It's somewhere in the neighborhood of 50% of gas is still coming from those 300 wells. They might be -- it's probably higher than that.
R. Joseph Stratman:
[ph] I think, Nathan, the -- as we look at -- in Jim's comments, in the prepared comments, he referred to the natural gas pricing environment today. And really, it's a fantastic option that we have, that we can produce gas from our own wells or hedge ourselves through a financial derivative, depending on which makes the best economic value. So we can always go back to drilling. The program we have available to us, if the economics are right, you are correct. We have enough gas that we will provide ourselves the DRI hedge for decades. It's just in the current moment, the economics would drive which is the best opportunity or option to cover that gas usage.
John J. Ferriola:
And just to clarify because we've said in the past that the program would not only cover all of our DRI needs, but it would also provide enough gas to cover all of our steel mill gas consumption needs also. And -- but Joe is right. This gas isn't going anywhere. It's in the ground. Today, the gas price is somewhere around $3.75 or in that neighborhood, so we can get out of the ground then. We were able to secure a hedge, which really gave us a better economic opportunity to leave it in the ground for what we believe will be the day that gas will ultimately be more expensive.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Got it. Just on this DRI plant a bit further then, I mean, you guys are obviously making sort of strategic decisions and thinking quite a lot about the raw material input costs here. Obviously, the bigger part of your cost base, though, is not gas at all; it's actually iron ore. We're now in an environment where we've got the lowest commodity price for 6 or so years. Asset values for iron ore businesses are probably as low as they've been in a decade. How are you thinking about potentially moving into iron ore at this point? Is that...
John J. Ferriola:
Again, as I mentioned, with all potential acquisitions or opportunities, it's a function of the value of the asset that we're looking at and the price that it takes to own it. So are we looking? Certainly, okay? Is the environment today a whole lot better than it was 4 years ago? Absolutely, okay? Another -- this has been another example where Nucor's patience and tenacity has paid off. And we talked many times about Nucor's long-standing practice of buying during the downturns. This is clearly a downturn for that asset and we -- it's given us new opportunities to take a look at. I'm not going to comment on anything specifically, but certainly we are looking at those opportunities.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Got it. And are you having to go out and seek those sort of things? Or have you got people coming in knocking on your door, so to speak?
John J. Ferriola:
Knocking on the door, let's just leave it at that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Ross Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Had a question on the automotive market. Can you give us a feel for how much of your volume, including some of the downstream products, went into that market, maybe through the first 3 quarters of this year?
John J. Ferriola:
Yes, we're running -- if you look at sheet -- I'll answer the question from 2 perspectives. I would answer in terms of our sheet products and I would answer in terms of our SBQ. In both cases, about 11% -- 10% or 11% of our total production of SBQ and sheet go into those markets. So 10% of our SBQ production is going into automotive today. About 10% or 11% of our sheet production is going into automotive today. I've mentioned in the past that our goal was 15%, so we're working to grow that. I can tell you we have many trials and qualifications going on in both -- with both SBQ and with sheet. And we remain confident that we'll be able to grow in those -- in the automotive market, which, as you know, is an extremely strong market. It has been growing. The market -- the automotive market has been growing, and frankly, we've been growing each year within that market. So we expect that to continue. Some of it is a result of the investments that we've made. One example would be the quality line at our mill in Memphis. That has really gone a long way towards getting us qualified at our Memphis mill in automotive applications.
Philip Ross Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Terrific. And I just had a question off of Nathan's here on the gas side. So as the year goes on in 2015, that you may be a little bit more than 50% practically. Were just you talking about the DRI facility? Or were you talking about your steel side?
James D. Frias:
I'm talking about the DRI facility with the gas coming out of the wells. And what I meant to say is by the end of '16 because we've done hedges through '16. It's by the end of '16 that it gets to be about 50% hedged. It's much higher than 50% for all of '15.
Philip Ross Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
So you're just talking about the DRI, you're not talking about the steel mills?
James D. Frias:
Exactly. Yes.
John J. Ferriola:
Correct.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
I just had a question for you on the Russian news yesterday and then also for Jim on the -- if I could give Jim the first one. I see the $45 million of start-up costs in the DRI. Jim, were there any other start-up costs that you could quantify in the quarter? I know you have a few other projects going, right?
James D. Frias:
Yes, nothing else that has resulted in any material start-up costs.
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
Okay. And then -- so John, on this Russian deal, right, I can see how the hot-rolled coil and plate get tariffed pretty heavily and that's good news for the market. I'm looking at the 75% of their inputs that are in the form of slab, and I know the integrated mills buy a lot of those. I know Nucor probably doesn't buy those because you have thin slab mills and you probably can't roll the thick slabs. I'm just wondering, do you think those slabs are dumped and possibly subject to trade cases in the future?
John J. Ferriola:
Well as you mentioned, and you're correct, we don't buy slabs, so we're not that intimately involved with trade cases that are going on, on slabs. So I really don't want to comment too much on that. I'll make a general comment, though, about the termination of the suspension agreement. We see that as a positive certainly, and it's more than just taking the tons out of the markets, although there's a lot of tons that will be coming out of the markets at that low price. I mean, I think, year-to-date, there is somewhere around 700,000 tons of Russian pile coming in and -- but the more important factor, frankly, is by the termination of the suspension agreement, it raises the floor of the sheet pricing in the market. They were certainly -- the Russians were certainly setting the floor. There was a very low floor. By taking their ability to do that out of the market, that's going to be a plus for us and for our competitors.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jorge Beristain with Deutsche Bank.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
I was just following up on one of your earlier comments made about the spread of U.S. pricing, domestic versus imports, and that, that convergence could be met through a slight decline in U.S. prices but maybe an increase in foreign prices. And I was just wondering if you could just flesh out your thinking as to why you think foreign prices may be coming up.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, I think it's a case of necessity. At some point, even with companies, competing companies that are getting subsidies, you've got to make some kind of a return. And some of the pricing that we're seeing from some of these companies today are just not sustainable. We believe that they are not sustainable, even with the government support. And frankly, if they depend more and more upon the government support, more government subsidies, that just enhances our ability to take action on the trade front because, obviously, that's a violation of the trade laws. So I think it's a combination of their costs. They've got to show some kind of a profit, and today, their pricing is, frankly, unsustainable. So we think that they're going to have to make some adjustments there. They see increasing costs just as we do, and frankly, they've got to be careful on the trade side.
Jorge M. Beristain - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Great. And then another question was just if you could kind of talk about the context. You're obviously looking forward to a recovering non-res and ultimately residential construction market in the U.S., and we haven't really seen the steel sector at full throttle since '06, '07. And do you think that there's enough growth in the market that imports will sort of be held at bay, or in kind of percentage terms, they've kind of taken your historic highs again and that there's structurally reasons in the U.S. market why imports will just level off, whether it's trade case related or just the ability of the end consumers to rely too heavily on imports that's just capped by the natural way the business is done in the U.S.? If you could just maybe talk to that point about, will imports level off, do you think? And is the growth sufficient enough in the domestic U.S. market for all participants?
John J. Ferriola:
First comment, I do believe that the non-residential construction will continue to improve and that will provide a better market. To your second comment, there certainly are some issues that make it tougher for imports these days than they have in the past. One great example would be transportation in the United States. It's one thing to get the product onto the ports of the U.S. It's another to get it delivered to the final customer. Trucking is an issue. Frankly, we're seeing some evidence of delayed deliveries at the ports due to congestion. We've got the winter months coming up, that weather becomes a function or becomes an issue. So when you look at the final customer bringing in an import, he's got to look at several risks. I mean, obviously, he takes on risks in doing that
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Given the steep decline in iron ore prices and lower natural gas prices, could you provide an update as for the likelihood that you'll move forward with the second DRI module in Louisiana? I'm imagining it's probably looking more and more likely. But in regards to the timing, would you be waiting for concrete evidence that you've established profitability with only the first module in place?
John J. Ferriola:
Certainly, we would be looking at the performance of the first module. As I mentioned, we've had some unexpected failures. We've gone in and we were able to correct them. We would want to run -- a couple of things. Number one, we want to get more faith in the reliability of the operation. Our team in Louisiana, they've done a great job of fighting through the issues, but there's still work to be done in how to perfect the operation of that furnace. Before we moved on with another one, we want to make sure we understood all the potential issues with that technology. We have to make a decision, frankly, whether we stayed with that technology or because of a competitive pricing situation, move back to the Midrex. Certainly, there's been a -- we would expect there to be some spirited competition for that second vessel. I hope all of the potential suppliers are listening. And we will move forward when we gain confidence, as you said, in the lower input costs of the iron ore and the natural gas, although we don't worry about the natural gas because we have our own supply of natural gas. So it's really taking a look at the iron ore picture, but currently we believe that we're going to see the lower iron ore pricing probably for the next 3 to 5 years to be certain. And as we mentioned earlier, there might opportunities during that time for us to make an investment where we can secure the pricing for iron ore. That would be a positive factor in moving forward with the second unit. So those are the major issues we would use to determine when we would move forward with the next unit.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And then just another question. Could you provide some color as to what mix of scrap to iron ore derivatives the Gallatin operation currently applies and then what supply contracts are in place? And then also, does your plan for adding value to Gallatin involve applying the DRI you produce in-house? Or will you maintain the supply arrangements that are already in place for those non-scrap iron units?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, currently, Gallatin's mix is about 80% scrap and 20% alternative iron units. We think that -- we would see that increasing to a much larger percentage after we had time to install the necessary feed equipment. That said, we certainly would feed the Gallatin facility from our in-house supplier. I'm not sure what contracts they have for the supplier from other sources. Nucor is a high integrity company. We will honor it, if they exist. But frankly, we're not -- we believe it's minimal, if they have any at all. And bear in mind that we have a major scrap processing facility right up in that same area, so it's -- we see synergies to be gained from our DJ Joseph family member with the Gallatin organization also.
Operator:
And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to John Ferriola for any additional or closing remarks.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, thank you, and let me just conclude by saying thank you to all of our customers. Thank you to our shareholders for your confidence and your investment in us. And thank you to our customers. Obviously, without your business, we would not be in business. And certainly, I want to say thank you to all of our 22,000 teammates for what you do every day, what you contribute to our company. Thank you for what you do, and most importantly, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in our company. Have a great day.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for all your participation.
Executives:
John Ferriola - Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer James Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer James Darsey - Executive Vice President Keith Grass - Chief Executive Officer, David J. Joseph Company Ladd Hall - Executive Vice President Raymond Napolitan - Executive Vice President, Fabricated Construction Products Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President Chad Utermark - Executive Vice President, Beam and Plate Products
Analysts:
Luke Folta - Jefferies Matt Murphy - UBS Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie Brian Yu - Citi
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation second quarter of 2014 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate, and variations of other such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligations to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. Please go ahead, sir.
John Ferriola:
Good afternoon. This is John Ferriola, Nucor's Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's senior management team
James Frias:
Thanks, John. Good afternoon to everyone. Second quarter 2014 earnings of $0.46 per diluted share exceeded our guidance range of $0.35 to $0.40 per diluted share. For the month of June, results from our steel mills and steel product segment were much better than forecast. As expected, the performance of our raw material segment included an operating loss of approximately $0.06 per diluted share at our new direct reduced iron, or DRI, facility in Louisiana. Second quarter of 2014 earnings improved over first quarter of 2014 earnings of $0.35 per diluted share, even after adjusting for period specific items. The first quarter of 2014, included $0.06 per share for diluted share of unusual expenses and a charge of $0.03 per diluted share for LIFO inventory valuation. The second quarter of 2014, included no LIFO inventory valuation charge and carried approximately $0.04 per diluted share of higher stock-based compensation expense related to the timing of annual grants. These grants are typically authorized in June of each year. The second quarter of 2013 carried a comparable amount of stock-based compensation expense. Nucor's year-over-year improvement in earnings was very robust compared to second quarter of 2013 earnings of $0.27 per diluted share. Last year's second quarter included no LIFO inventory activity and no unusual items. As John mentioned, our teams working throughout Nucor are working hard to increase earnings, despite continued headwinds from surging imports and a non-residential construction market that remains less than 60% of the peak from 2007. Our teammates' success is demonstrated by a 52% gain in the first half of 2014 in earnings over the year-ago period. Noteworthy contributors to the improved year-to-date earnings include our sheet mills, plate mills and fabricated construction products. Our sheet mills capitalized on both improved demand and opportunities provided by supply disruption at our competitors. Our plate mill group is benefiting from the investments made during the downturn at our North Carolina plate mill to add a heat treat facility, a vacuum tank degasser and a normalizing line. Our fabricated construction products group has taken advantage of small, but noticeable improvements in non-residential construction activity, by both growing our market share and increasing our margins in rebar fabrication, joist and decking, and pre-engineered metal buildings. A comment about our tax rates, as it can be confusing, due to the impact of profits from non-controlling interest. After adjusting out profits belonging to our business partners, the effective tax rate was 33.8% for the second quarter of 2014. That is consistent with our expectations for full year effective tax rate of approximately 34%. After adjusting out profits belonging to our business partners and the first quarter charge related primarily to New York State, tax law changes. At the end of the second quarter, Nucor's financial position remained strong. Our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 35.8%. Our cash and short-term investments totaled $1.2 billion. Further to Nucor's strong liquidity, our $1.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility is undrawn, and does not mature until August of 2018. We have no commercial paper outstanding. Our next significant debt maturity is not until 2017. Nucor is the only steel producer in North America to enjoy the important competitive advantage of an investment-grade credit rating. Our financial strength is a significant competitive advantage. It allows us to invest aggressively during downturns to grow our long-term earnings power, which is a long tradition of Nucor. During the current downturn, Nucor has invested in a broad range of strategic investments throughout our steel making, raw materials and downstream businesses. Our investments all build upon Nucor's competitive advantages that include our low cost and highly flexible production capabilities, our diversified product mix and our market leadership positions. With these investments, Nucor is extremely well-positioned to continue our industry-leading through-the-cycle return on capital performance. Our focus remains on being an effective steward of our shareholders valuable capital. We continue to estimate our 2014 capital spending will be approximately $600 million. That would be a significant decline from capital expenditures that exceeded $1 billion in both 2013 and 2012. Most of our recent growth projects have been completed or are nearing completion. Also, the current temporary suspension of drilling new wells by our natural gas working interest investment reduces Nucor's 2014 capital spending by about $400 million. For the third quarter of 2014, Nucor's earnings are expected to show strong improvement over second quarter earnings. We expect increased profits at our structural, plate and sheet mills. Profitability of our bar mills should be stable compared with second quarter's performance. Our fabricated construction products businesses are expected to increase their earnings as non-residential construction activity continues its slow, steady, recovery. In the second quarter, our Louisiana DRI facility completed its planned three-week outage to make equipment adjustments. We expect marked improvement in the performance of this plant in the third quarter and profitability achieved by yearend. The biggest risk to the outlook for our industry continues to be excess global steel capacity and the ongoing threat of steel illegally dumped into the United States. Nucor will again follow our practice of providing quantitative guidance in the final month of the quarter. We appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John Ferriola:
Thank you, Jim. I would like to share some thoughts regarding the major industry risk that Jim identified, imports. In 2014, we are experiencing in the United States market what can best be described as a Tsunami of imported steel. Given the indisputable fact that mills in the United States are among the lowest cost producers of steel in the world, this makes no sound economic sense. A significant portion of this import surge is being driven by worldwide overcapacity that continues to operate as a result of illegal government subsidies and other trade law violations. The Nucor teams work to build sustainable long-term profitability requires that we fight hard to encourage our government to enforce our nation's credit loss. These trade remedies are not protectionism. The World Trade Organization or WTO established these actions as appropriate and necessary responses to subsidized exports and dumping practices of nations with access capacity. Several current trade case filings underway are of critical importance to Nucor and U.S. manufacturing jobs. These include rebar, pipes and tube products and wire rod. We were pleased by the Commerce Department's recent final decision to assess anti-dumping duties on oil country tubular goods imported from Korea, following a core preliminary finding. Domestic producers of OCTG products are significant and highly value customers of Nucor. Regarding the Commerce Department's preliminary determinations in the rebar case, we were encouraged by the findings on Mexican imports. While the findings on Turkish imports were disappointing, we are advancing small arguments for the Commerce Department to consider as it prepared as final determinations scheduled for release in September. During the second quarter, our team stayed focused on what is under our control today. I am very encouraged by our performance in the second quarter and the first half of 2014. Nucor delivered solid earnings growth in what are still very challenging steel market conditions. First and foremost, each day we pursue continual improvement in the job we are doing taking care of our customers. At the same time, our team has made excellent progress implementing our strategy of investing for long-term profitable growth. Here are some notable achievements during the second quarter. In June, our Nucor-Yamato structural mill completed an approximately $115 million project to expand its sheet piling production capabilities. Trials of the new products are underway this quarter with prime production expected early in the fourth quarter. The new piling sections will increase single sheet widths by 22% and provide a lighter stronger piling covering more area at a lower installed cost. This investment strengthens our market position in the piling business. It also allows us to realize more synergies from our already successful 2012 acquisition of piling distributor Skyline Steel. In late June, our new Louisiana DRI facility completed a planned three-week outage to implement equipment adjustments that will improve yields and conversion cost. Our team has already achieved outstanding quality and productivity in the first six months of operations. In fact, Louisiana has set new world-class quality standards with metallization rates up 96% and carbon content exceeding 4%. It's not surprising that our flat rolls and SBQ steel mills are eager to consume as much of Louisiana's output as they can get it. With the equipment adjustments completed, we expect significant reductions in yield loss in conversion costs during the second half of this year. As Jim mentioned, we also anticipate profitable performance by the end of this year. Our successful startup of the Louisiana DRI plant is a major step forward in the implementation of our raw materials strategy. We view our expanded DRI capacity combined with our natural gas investments to be a game changer for Nucor's ability to grow in the higher value-added sheet, plate in SBQ markets. The benefits from our raw material strategy are many. It significantly improves our long-term cost structure, with a high quality iron units we need to compete in the targeted products. It lowers the operating costs of our mills, through reduced usage of consumables and energy, as well as increased productivity. It enhances our ability to optimize our mix of iron units based on variations and the market pricing of those raw materials. It gives us greater commercial flexibility in working with our contract customers. It reduces the geopolitical risk exposure of our supply chain, given that many of today's merchant pig iron and DRI producers are located in country such as Russia, Ukraine and Venezuela. Finally and very importantly, it protects us from the long-term degradation of prime supplies that result from the growing market share of recycles field. All of these benefits make clear why implementation of our raw material strategy has been so important to the Nucor team. Nucor's Bar Mill Group made excellent progress during the first half of 2014 expanding its penetration of SBQ and rod markets. Our South Carolina bar mill increased production at its new rod mill. Customer feedback has been very favorable, as our Darlington team broadens its product range to include the more demanding, high carbon, wire rod off puts. Nucor Steel Memphis is taking advantage of recently commissioned offline inspection equipment to begin production qualification trials with automotive OEMs. Memphis also completed installation of a fourth caster strainer that will support our growth serving customers in the energy markets. Nucor Steel Nebraska has recently installed quality inspection line is already at full capacity and plans are being made to add a second line in 2015. Nebraska is also installing a fifth caster strainer to take advantage of growing demand from it's customers for high quality SBQ brands and seamless tube round billers. Nucor Steel Berkeley's successful start-up this year of its wide light capital project is building momentum with a growing order book. The new wider and lighter products already account for 5% of Berkeley's order book. The investment provides Berkeley with the capability to roll gauges and spinners 0.042 inches, which is the lightest hot roll gauge capability of any sheet mill in the Southern U.S. market. Berkeley's capabilities also provide a finished width of up to 72 inches. We estimate the size of this new market segment, now available to Berkeley to be approximately 4 million tons of annual volume. Our expanded product portfolio is allowing us to move up the value change in agricultural, automotive, heavy equipments and pipe and tube applications. During the second quarter, our David J. Joseph scrap business acquired two shredders and related assets, one in Tampa, Florida and the other in Salt Lake City, Utah. These purchases are consistent with DJJ's disciplined growth strategy to expand its existing, regional recycling platforms when the marketplace provides us with attractive opportunities. These significant and numerous investments we have been making over the past several years are all within the framework of our well-defined strategic growth plan. The goals of our growth plan are to increase our returns to shareholders by increasing our tons produced, increasing our profits per ton, and adding resiliency to our business against the impact for global steel making overcapacity. We are succeeding at accomplishing these goals. As has been true throughout Nucor's history, our company's best years are still ahead of us. Thank you for your interest in Nucor and sharing a valuable time with us this afternoon. We would now be happy to take your questions.
Operator:
(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Luke Folta with Jefferies
Luke Folta - Jefferies:
First question I had was on share. Clearly, you gained some share on the flat rolled side of the business, and also wanted to talk on structural. On flat rolled, I remember some commentary around the idea that if you were going to pick up share from some of the integrated players, given the production outages in the first half, that you would hope to do so by also getting some full year business, implying that you wouldn't sell otherwise. And then also on the structural side of the market, looking at one of your competitors who reported this week, it looks like in aggregate so far from who is from the companies that have reported, we've seen a pretty healthy pickup in demand in that market. How much I guess market share do you think or I guess how big of an impact did you think the outage that you had at Yamato was, in terms of your shipment trends this quarter? And do you get most of that back heading into next quarter?
John Ferriola:
Well, certainly had a major impact. It was a three-week outage. Our kudos to the team at Nucor-Yamato, they completed the task within the three-weeks. They did a great job. It was a result of quite a bit of advanced planning and advanced work. They came out of the startup extremely well. They're running well. They're going through the trials now with all of the different shapes going through the new equipment. And I'm really pleased with the progress that they are making. It's going much quicker than we thought. And we are confident that we will regain those tons in the second part of this year. Well, I was going to go to your first question, actually. You had a comment about our sheet business, and whether or not our approach, we certainly didn't say we wouldn't sell to anybody, but we did say that we would give preferential treatment to those customers who were in a bind because of the situations with some of our competitors. We would give preference to those who were able to give us business that was not just a short-term business, but it was there for the rest of the year. And frankly, we probably lost a little bit of short-term spot business, as a result of that. But in return, we were able to gain longer-term market share improvements and we're confident that what we gain we'll be able to hold through the rest of the year.
James Frias:
Luke, I'm sorry, one other thing I'd like to add is, as you think about our quarter-over-quarter performance, I remember that the first quarter was four days longer for us, the way we do our calendar cut-off than the second quarter.
John Ferriola:
And I'd also say that in first quarter we were not impacted by the weather conditions as much as some of our competitors. Our teams, particularly, Crawfordsville, God bless them, I don't know how they did it, but they were able to ship well during some of those polar vortexes, I guess, is what they are called now. But the team did a great job and we were able to maintain shipments through the first quarter. So unlike some of our competitors, we did not have to make up those tons in the second quarter.
Luke Folta - Jefferies:
And just if I could, on Severstal Columbus, obviously the announced acquisition this week by Steel Dynamics, I guess looking at it, I wanted to understand, is this something that you took a look at? It looks like the valuation seems pretty reasonable. It looks like a fairly accretive deal for them. I would have thought for Nucor, the synergies would be at least as good, if not better, just given the DRI plant located there and just the regional presence. Curious to know what your interest level was or if you participated in that at all and just your thought process on it?
John Ferriola:
Well, I'm going to have to answer the question in a hypothetical mode, because I cannot say whether or not we actually participated in the process. But if we had been involved in the process, these are some of the thoughts that we would have about the valuation and really what it meant to Nucor. Let me start by saying that Severstal is a good asset. And it's good equipment. It's good quality. But given this location, it was not a particularly good fit for our well-disciplined growth strategy in our vision. And therefore, we couldn't justify paying such a high price for that asset. Again, hypothetically speaking, if we were involved in the process. But I got to say, Luke, that given that it was not right for us, we were pleased that it ended up with an existing domestic competitor, which resulted in further consolidation in sheet industry. This consolidation, when you think about it and you couple it with the TK also a middle consolidation, and the fact that RG is permanently out of the market, means that we've had three major consolidating movements in the sheet market over the last two years. Obviously, this is going to result in a stronger, more competitive sheet industry. Nucor being, given our extremely significant or strong position in sheet, will continue to benefit and try in this new environment. And we get to enjoy the benefit of that better market without having to have spent $1.6 billion to get it. I want to make one more point, just in general, about our strategy and some of our history in the past. In the past, Nucor has been aggressive in growing through acquisition. And we will continue to be aggressive in growing though acquisition in the future, when the target is a good fit for our well-defined strategic plan. You mentioned the fact that we have a strong presence, so you thought that that would provide some synergies for us. Well, we look at it a little bit differently, as we were valuing this potential target and we thought about what we were going to do in the process. Now, Luke, you got to think about the fact that we already have an extremely strong position in the Southeast, with three mills and 9 million tons of capacity. And when we place value, when we go about placing value of potential target, we consider many factors, but three are the really key factors that we consider are
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matt Murphy - UBS:
Maybe now one specifically on Nucor, but more on the industry, where you comment imports have surpassed 2006 levels. I guess I am just wondering what your thinking is on future trade cases, what the hold up is? Is it in sort of information collection time, if you could just expand on that a little?
John Ferriola:
Well, there is a couple of points to be made there. I think, number one, my general impression is that as I spend time in Washington, I'm a little bit more optimistic that our government is finally to getting to understand some of the importance of these trade cases and the impact that it has on our economy, on our employment situation, particularly in the manufacturing area. So I'm getting a little bit more confident that our government, the Commerce Department, the ITC, is better understanding the impact that not only the imports have on our economy, but also a better understanding of the process and the length of time it takes and the damage that's done as a result of that length of time. And as a result, we continue our hard work in Washington. As a result, as I mentioned, there is a long process. U.S. was holding up some potential trade cases coming down the road, well, it's the process. We are gathering information. I'm not going to give anything more specific about what trade cases might be coming down the pipe. I don't think you have to use too much of your imagination to figure out what it is. We've been pleased with the outcome at the OCTG case. We feel good about the rebar case with. One of the things that I mentioned in script was that, we're working with the Commerce Department to help them better understand facts of the case. And given that, we feel confident that we've got a good shot at a final ruling that's more favorable than the preliminary. So overall, listen, overcapacity in the world is a major issue. It is one of our greatest risk, not only to Nucor, but to our entire industry. Nucor will, as we always have, been very local and we will continue to fight a good fight. And we're confident we're going to be more and more successful going forward, because more and more of our trade laws are being flagrantly violated. So as a result, I'm pretty optimistic about the future, but I'm not going to give any specific sense to what cases might be coming down the pipeline.
Matt Murphy - UBS:
And then maybe just one specific on structural. Second quarter realized pricing was pretty strong. How sustainable do you think that is in the second half?
John Ferriola:
Our backlogs are good. The market is good. Demand is good. We're going to be bringing new products on to the market. Given all of that, we feel it's sustainable through the second half of the year. It's hard to look out much past the second half of the year, so I'm not going to make any comments about 2015. But certainly, we feel good about it, and particularly given the new products that we're going to be able to offer off of that mill. We're excited about it. We really are. And the market is very excited about them also.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
I just wanted to ask a little bit more generally speaking about uses of cash. And I think that you make the point that you're not investing in gas exploration. You made the point that you have very strong free cash flows, great balance sheet. And as such, I think it begs the question or revisits the question of, what you're planning to do with the capital. So I want to ask again, now that we've seen the DRI plant start to work a little bit more in your favor, you're getting a little bit more comfortable with it, and now that you have seen some M&A unlocked, not just the one that was announced earlier this week, but other opportunities that are starting to portray themselves in the market. How do you think about build versus buy? How do you think about the options out in the market? You do have a very strong balance sheet, interest rates are low. Can you just give us a flavor about what you're thinking about and what priorities?
John Ferriola:
Well, as a general statement, I would say that we're still probably leaning towards buy rather than build, simply because the older capacity that already exists in the world, we don't see any sense in adding to it. Certainly, in the United States market, we've had a fairly good balance at this point, and we wouldn't consider building a new sheet mill, or I feel there might be other products that we would look at, we think that there are some areas where we have potential to grow. A more general answer, Timna, is listen, the world is our oyster. We've got a great balance sheet. We're wrapping up a lot of projects. I think there's a total of 12 projects we've done over the last four years that are starting to come, that has come to conclusion, and is starting to show some returns, so we're feeling better about those. We'll be wrapping up the few remaining ones in the next six months, 12 months. So we're in a position where we will again becoming rather aggressive in growing the company in some possibly new directions. I would also tell you that there are some opportunities out there that fit much better than in Severstal asset fit. Better location relative to our mills, areas where we do not have a strong of a presence and we don't have as high of a percent of market share as we do in the Southeast. And overall, the Southeast, we've got something like kind of 25%, 30% market share. And there's other regions of the country where there is actually more market demand in sheet products where we have a much smaller footprint and a smaller market share. So there is a lot of opportunities out there. On the structural side, we've just completed this new project to get new products out there. Now, we've got to take that to the market. We're excited about some opportunities we can do. And one of the things that we did in addition to the new piling sections that we have is we -- let me see how I can say this, we improved the quality of the products that we are putting through the mill already and with much greater tolerances than have been available in the past. I'll leave it at that. And our customers are very excited about that. Not only do we feel that that will bring some additional business or bring us some additional margin. We feel good about that. So right now, Timna, I'm glad that we had a strong balance sheet, I really am. It speaks once again to Nucor's successful longstanding policy of maintaining a strong balance sheet and then taking advantage of that to grow the company in many ways, organically, incrementally and in larger ways through acquisitions.
Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
If I can follow up. Now that does, except for that you didn't mention DRI once. So I guess I can follow-up there and ask about that, in light of the cancellation of one project that was being contemplated, but pig iron prices staying stubbornly high, how are you looking at DRI now?
John Ferriola:
You mean someone else canceling a DRI project, whether that impacts the way that we think about DRI.
Timna Tanners - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Just an update, in light of the fact that, A, someone canceled a project; B, pig iron prices have stayed high; and I guess C, you're also seeing your own project come closer to the levels that you'd aimed for. So how do you think about all those in light of your own DRI plans?
John Ferriola:
Certainly all of those are favorable factors supporting the initial decision to go into DRI. You could argue that the one other company canceling the project might indicate that they felt that it wasn't a good project. DRI wasn't a good way to go in terms of a raw material supply. But I would caution you that you must remember that it isn't, unless you have a gas contract to along with it. Okay. We do, they didn't. I don't blame them. Okay, I'll leave it at that. Certainly, the fact that we've gained some confidence out of the DRI Louisiana plant that we're currently running in terms of the quality that client put out. We are still working through some of our startup issues, no doubt about that. We shut down for three weeks. We made some modifications from information, knowledge that we gained by running. They're in the first period. And I have to say that we're pleased with the results of the equipment modifications that we made during that three-week outage. We still have more work to do, but what we've seen as we came out of that outage. There was great confidence in the long-term success for that plant. So all of that factors into. Certainly ,we're still considering the second DRI plant. I have said many times and I'll say again that we want to get first one up and running and learn all we can from it, so that if we want to make any tweaks, either to the equipment or however, whatever changes we might want to make in the system, we don't want to build the second one until we fully gain all the knowledge we can get out of the first one. We learned a lot in first six months. We'll learn more in the six months. But I will tell you, and this is a good long-term strategy for Nucor, okay. I gave you the reasons, and that the key word that I hope you caught there was, this is a good long-term strategy. This is more than just a short-term boost to earnings, okay. This is something that we believe in five, 10, 15 years from today is going to truly differentiate Nucor from our competitors. And I gave you the list of reasons why I felt that way.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Sal Tharani with Goldman Sachs.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
My first question for Jim. You have taken your LIFO, cut your LIFO by half for the year. Just wondering, is it your reflection of steel prices or is it the iron ore price? What's driving that?
James Frias:
The biggest driver, Sal, is scrap pricing.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
So you think scrap is going to follow iron ore over the period of the next six months?
James Frias:
Yes. We think it's going to be relatively flat. It certainly hasn't trended up to where it would have needed to go to justify what was our original budget for LIFO expense.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
John, the Steel Dynamics had made some positive commentary in non-res construction in terms of joist orders and so forth. I was just wondering, and you have mentioned about your downstream business are getting better than you expect, further improvement in third quarter. How quick is this transition going on? Do you think this is going to be a pretty strong recovery over the next year-and-a-half or so or is it going to limp along, 4%, 5% type of recovery from a very low base?
John Ferriola:
I believe and we believe that it will limp along at a very slow recovery, 5% to 6%. I think what might be misleading some people is the rate of increase in second quarter versus first quarter. And I think you have to be careful about that. First quarter was very heavily impacted by weather in every one of our downstream businesses, and I suspect in everyone else's downstream business. If we look at just our second quarter order entry rate in downstream businesses relative to first quarter, we see a very significant improvement. But some of that, as I said, is a result of catching up from the first quarter's poor weather conditions that really hampered by any kind of non-residential construction. So as we go forward to the rest of the year, we think that there will be continuous improvement, most analyst and we particularly agree with them, saying that by the end of the year, the 2014 versus '13 increase will be somewhere around that 5% to 6% number. And we believe that's accurate.
Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs:
The next question is on the DRI. And I understand your comment that it's doing better than what you have thought. So your initial assessment was that it would take a year to make it profitable?
John Ferriola:
Yes. I think we are still saying that we will be profitable by the end of the year.
James Frias:
Yes. I'm not saying that we're going to making up at the end of the year to cover the losses in the first half. We are just saying that the fourth quarter's operations will be generating profits by our current estimation.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Nathan Littlewood with Credit Suisse.
Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse:
Listen, just wanted to ask a little bit about imports and the OCT trade case. So I guess traditional thinking, up until we saw this one recently, was that there generally wasn't a huge amount of change in terms of the duties or tariffs supplied between the preliminary and final determinations. But what we're seeing here is an example where they have changed quite significantly. I was interested in hearing your thoughts on a couple of things. Firstly, number one, how has the OCTG example sort of changed the way you think about trade cases? How you approach trade cases? And the second part is could you talk a little bit about the number of people and the resources that you allocate to trade case investigations? And are you in any way thinking about increasing that, given the success that we've seen with OCTG?
John Ferriola:
Let me tackle the first question first. The OCTG case has impacted the way that we view trade cases going forward. One of the things that we believe led to the success here was the fact that we worked very hard with the ITC and with Congress to help them understand the data and look at how that data was being presented by some of the countries in the case. We believed, and apparently obviously we were able to convince them, that the way the data was being presented was very misleading. Helping them walk through that process resulted in a more positive outcome for us and for the industry. How does that impact us going forward? Well, certainly now having learned that, we will present the data in a way that for us makes it some very clear and work with the Commerce and ITC to help them understand the way that the data from the offending countries is presented. So we've learned from the lesson. And how do I feel about things going forward, as I mentioned earlier, it's impossible to say with any level of certainty, but you have a certain sense of feelings when you are in Washington. And my sense is that I feel more optimistic about the cases coming up as we go forward. I think both Commerce and the ITC are seeing the -- what we've been saying for quite some time, the practice of repeat offenders, the practice of product substitution, you win a case on one thing, they immediately win it on structural beams, they got to rebar, you win it on rebar, they go to merchant bar. Now, there's a pattern that's being developed that we're helping the ITC and Commerce Department understand, which points to some very basic flaws in the way our laws are being applied. And we're working hard to help Washington and the proper authorities understand that. And your second question was whether or not we felt a need to increase the size of our team working in Washington. All I can tell you, it's a very small team, but it's extremely effective team. We've got the best there is. And I don't think we need to grow it at all. The team has got a great deal of confidence. They had shown what they can accomplish. And they have been very successful and I don't see us changing that at all.
Nathan Littlewood - Credit Suisse:
I just had one final one on back on DRI and the DRI economics. Over the past few months, as Timna, was asking earlier, we've seen pig iron prices hold up remarkably well. The headline finds prices come down, iron ore pellet premiums have come down as well, so one would have to assume that the margin or the raw material spread has gotten a heck of a lot better for you guys over the last couple of months. Could you talk a little about that sort of spread or some of the underlying commodity price assumptions upon which your profitability guidance is based? And as you know, that spread can kind of vary by $100 a ton or more over the course of a few months. So what sort of commodity price environment do you achieve breakeven? And if we saw the current spreads maintained, is there risk profitability may actually be a little bit earlier?
John Ferriola:
Well, there is always that possibility. In terms of what are the margins given different pricing of the commodity that we used to make this determination, we have a nice spreadsheet that's up on our website and it's a very interactive spreadsheet, very easy to work with, you plug-in whatever numbers you want to plug into with iron and pallet premiums and every other element that goes into it. And it will spread out the differential. So I'm not going to go through the different scenarios. There's just too many of them to consider. But I would point you to that spreadsheet and recommend that if you want to work with those numbers, you will clearly use that spreadsheet and you will get that.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
On the DRI, you said there was a 96% metalization and a 4% carbon. That sounds like a pretty good mix there. I'm wondering, when you say --
John Ferriola:
Well, let me stop you right there, okay. Let me stop you right there for a minute, Aldo. It's not a very good mix. It's a great mix, it's an outstanding, it's world-class setting mix. Now, you can continue.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
So my question is when you say you want to improve the yield, are you talking about the metalization yield or are you talking about a yield to finished product from pellet?
John Ferriola:
Processed yield. In other words, yield to finished product. Process yield, not the metalization or the carbon rates.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
Can you say what that yield is now and what your target would be?
John Ferriola:
It's not as good as wanted to be. It's a hell of a lot better than when we started. That's the parameters that I'll give you. We made some progress after a few weeks of running. We've recognized some issues that we had to go in and take care of, which we did during three week outage that we mentioned few times. Coming out of that, we saw our yield improve still more. We will continue to work to get it even better by the end of the year. Frankly, I'm hoping our team is listening there, and when I say that our goal, okay, is 99.999% yields.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
So right now, you only have two 9's probably, right? So the other question I had, John, is on the shredder acquisition you made. Can you give us an idea of what the volume potential would be of those two things?
John Ferriola:
I'm going to turn that over to our scrap guru over here, Keith.
Keith Grass:
Scrap guru, I'm not sure, but between the two of them, it adds an additional quarter million tons of shredding volumes through the facilities. And maybe just one extra point that there was an effort of consolidation. So we operate facilities in both of those regions and are in the process of, and in fact in both cases have already consolidated into our existing shredding platform.
John Ferriola:
And that's the key point. You made an additional point, but it's really it's a key point of the disciplined structured growth plan at DJ Joseph of building on existing platforms that we have in place, which brings some synergies to it and got a good management team in place. So the growth you're going to see at DJ Joseph going forward will be similar to this, where we grow incrementally at each one of our platforms taking advantage of comp consolidation and the synergies.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
And can you just say how much of all the scrap that Joseph handles, I know they do a lot of brokerage and then they also do some shredding, can you say how much they shred versus broker, roughly?
John Ferriola:
We've shred, what, about 4.5 million tons, but close to the 3.5 million tons. So we shred 3.5 million tons and we broke quite a bit more than that, between 20 million or 24 million tons we broke.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
And you got time for one more question, on the acquisition front.
John Ferriola:
Absolutely.
Aldo Mazzaferro - Macquarie:
John, I am very interested in your landscape comments on the industry about where you might see opportunities for acquisitions. And I had the feeling you were talking about the upper Midwest as an opportunity. But they're very big unionized mills up there. I know there's a small one for sale in Kentucky. I'm wondering, the small one for sale in Kentucky, I could see it, but not really a needle mover. But in terms of a big mill in the Midwest, is that something you would consider?
John Ferriola:
We don't discuss our strategic plan. We've got competitors onshore listening to this call, would love to learn what it is we plan to do going forward. So I'm not going to make any comments at all. Other than we always say, no comment, when it comes to strategic planning and merger and acquisition opportunities.
Operator:
And we'll take our last question in the queue from Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Yu - Citi:
A question on the DRI, I think in the last quarter you guys said you would do about 200,000 tons or 500,000 tons in the second quarter. Would you be able to provide some targets of what you guys are hoping to accomplish maybe 3Q and 4Q, as part of this breakthrough to profitability?
John Ferriola:
I just want to make sure I understand the question. You're asking, how many tons we think we'll produce at DRI during the third and fourth quarter?
Brian Yu - Citi:
Yes. That's right.
John Ferriola:
We think we'll be somewhere, and again, we're in a ramp up mode, so I'm going to give you a range here, because as I said, we are in this ramp up mode. It's somewhere between 700,000 tons and 900,000 tons.
James Frias:
For the second half of the year?
John Ferriola:
For the second half of the year.
Brian Yu - Citi:
And are there any other outages that's planned for that facility or is it at this point more of getting the process locked down, and as you mentioned earlier, improving those process yields?
John Ferriola:
We are and that's exactly what's taking place right now. It's getting the process locked down. As you go through that, you might see different things that you want to make some changes to or improvements with. You might shutdown to do that. But we aren't anticipating any major shutdowns between now and the end of the year. That's the end of the questions. Well, I'm assuming there are no further questions, and I am assuming everyone is still on the line. So let me conclude by saying, thank you to our shareholders. We appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate your business. We wouldn't be in business without your business. So thank you. And I want to say thank you to my Nucor teammates, for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly, thank you all for doing it safely. Thanks for your interest in Nucor. Have a great afternoon.
Operator:
And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Executives:
John J. Ferriola - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President James D. Frias - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer Keith B. Grass - Executive Vice President, Chief Executive Officer of DJJ and President of DJJ R. Joseph Stratman - Executive Vice President of Beam & Plate Products Raymond S. Napolitan - Executive Vice President of Fabricated Construction Products James R. Darsey - Executive Vice President Ladd R. Hall - Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Michelle Applebaum - Michelle Applebaum Research Inc. David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Martin Englert - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Michael F. Gambardella - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Nucor Corporation First Quarter of 2014 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Certain statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. The words we expect, believe, anticipate and variations of other such words and similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and information that is currently available. Although Nucor believes that they are based on reasonable assumptions, there can be no assurance that future events will not affect this -- their accuracy. More information about the risks and uncertainties relating to these forward-looking statements may be found in Nucor's latest 10-K and subsequently filed 10-Qs, which are available on the SEC's and Nucor's website. The forward-looking statements made in this conference call speak only as of this date, and Nucor does not assume any obligations to update them, either as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. John Ferriola, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and President of Nucor Corporation. please go ahead, sir.
John J. Ferriola:
Thank you. Good afternoon. This is John Ferriola, Nucor's Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Thank you for joining us for our conference call. As always, we appreciate your interest in Nucor. With me for today's call are the other members of Nucor's executive senior management team
James D. Frias:
Thanks, John, and good afternoon. First quarter 2014 earnings of $0.35 per diluted share included unfavorable tax adjustments totaling $0.04 per diluted share. This charge was not factored into our guidance earnings range of $0.30 to $0.35 per diluted share. First quarter results also included a charge of $0.02 per diluted share related to the disposal of assets within the steel mills segment. This charge was factored into our guidance. A comment about our tax rates as it can be confusing due to the impact of profits from noncontrolling interests. After adjusting out profits belonging to our business partners and the onetime tax adjustments, the effective tax rate was 34.4% for the first quarter of 2014. Over the balance of this year, we expect our effective tax rate, after adjusting out profits belonging to our business partners, to be in the range of 34% to 35%. As John noted, our performance was achieved despite the impact of the most severe winter weather conditions in a decade experienced in many parts of the country. The resulting challenges were numerous. Deliveries of raw materials to our facilities and our shipments to customers were hindered by railcar and truck availability. Costs were increased, especially for energy, and customer demand was disrupted as more than half our end-use demand is directly tied to construction activity. Most importantly, our teammates in all of Nucor's businesses applied their can-do attitude and energy to taking care of our customers. We view our industry-leading operational flexibility and reliability as critical pieces of the value package we deliver to our customers every day. First quarter 2014 total energy costs at our steel mills increased by about $7 per ton from the prior quarter. As a partial hedge to these higher costs, the profitable output of our natural gas working interest investment represented approximately 68% of the total consumption of natural gas at our steel mills and our Louisiana DRI plant in the first quarter. Total start-up costs for the first quarter of 2014 were $20.9 million. This included $20.7 million in start-up costs for our DRI facility in Louisiana. That number was higher than we expected. Overall, we are pleased with the progress of the Louisiana DRI plant. John will provide further comments in our progress in Louisiana. Nucor continues to benefit from its position as North America's most diversified manufacturer of steel and steel products. Year-over-year earnings improvements were achieved by a number of our businesses. In our steel mills segment, profits increased at our sheet and plate mills. In our steel products segment, profitability improved at our joist and deck, cold finished bars and fastener operations. In our raw materials segment, the DRI facility in Trinidad and David J. Joseph Company scrap processing business reported higher earnings. At the end of the first quarter, Nucor's financial position remains strong. Our total debt-to-capital ratio was 36%. Cash and short-term investments totaled $1.3 billion. Further to Nucor's strong liquidity, our $1.5 billion unsecured, revolving credit facility is undrawn, and it does not mature until August 2018. We have no commercial paper outstanding. Our next significant debt maturity is not until 2017. Nucor is the only steel producer in North America to enjoy the extremely important competitive advantage of an investment-grade credit rating. Our financial strength is a significant competitive advantage. It allows us to invest aggressively during downturns to grow our long-term earnings power, which is a strategic initiative of Nucor. During the steel industry's current lengthy downturn, Nucor has invested in a broad range of strategic investments. We are building upon our critically important competitive advantages that include our low-cost and highly flexible production capabilities, our diversified product mix and our market leadership positions. With these investments, we are extremely well positioned to capitalize on the inevitable steel industry's cyclical upturn. Our focus remains on realizing attractive returns on Nucor's invested capital, which currently exceeds $9 billion. We are confident in our teams' ability to continue Nucor's record of being an effective steward of our shareholders' valuable capital. As we discussed on our last conference call, we expect significantly lower capital expenditures for 2014. The majority of our growth projects will be completed in the first half of this year. Also, the temporary suspension of drilling new wells or our natural gas working interest investment reduces Nucor's 2014 capital spending by about $400 million. We continue to estimate our 2014 capital spending will be approximately $600 million. For the second quarter of 2014, Nucor's earnings are expected to show some improvement over the first quarter, excluding the unusual charges. We expect increased profits at both our steel mills and our fabricated construction product businesses. We also remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for nonresidential construction activity in 2014. This outlook is tempered by excess global steel capacity and the ongoing threat of steel illegally dumped into the United States. Nucor will again follow our practice of providing quantitative guidance in the final month of the quarter. We do appreciate your interest in our company. John?
John J. Ferriola:
Thanks, Jim. I am encouraged by our performance in the first quarter of 2014. We delivered solid earnings given the significant challenges outside of our control. The 2 big challenges this quarter were the weather and ongoing pressure from imports. Our team also made excellent progress during the quarter, implementing our strategy of investing for long-term profitable growth. The biggest reason that I'm encouraged is that I see strong evidence that Nucor is beginning to realize initial payoffs from our hard work through this protracted down cycle to grow our long-term earnings power. We have invested our shareholders' valuable capital in numerous projects that provide us new, higher-margined product offerings, cost reductions and quality improvements. After starting up operations just last December 24, our Nucor Steel Louisiana team produced 455,000 tons of DRI during the first quarter of 2014. During the quarter, the facility attained peak operating rates above 90%. Most importantly, the quality of the initial output has been outstanding. Louisiana has already attained world-class quality, with metallization rates of 96% and carbon content exceeding 4%. I would like to thank everyone on our team in Louisiana for their excellent progress in the first quarter and their unrelenting commitment to continuing the hard work required for completing the job. As Jim mentioned, Louisiana's costs were higher than expected during the first quarter. That's not unusual for the early production at a new facility. We are pleased to report that the performance of the equipment has actually exceeded our expectations. As was the case in starting up our DRI facility in Trinidad 7 years earlier, our work is now focused on process adjustments to improve the initially high product yield loss that is inevitably part of start-ups. Our Louisiana team has identified a number of such modifications to reduce yield loss that will be made during a 3-week shutdown planned for June. The start-up of the Louisiana DRI plant is a major step forward in the implementation of our raw material strategy. We view our expanded DRI capability to be a game changer to Nucor's long-term cost structure for the high-quality iron units we need to expand our share of the higher value-added sheet, SBQ bar and plate markets. It also improves our operating flexibility with a significantly shorter and more secure supply chain for high-quality iron units. In the first quarter, Nucor Steel Berkeley successfully started up its wide light capital project, providing Berkeley with the capability to produce wider and lighter gauge sheet steel. In fact, the Berkeley team has already exceeded the equipment's gauge reduction performance guarantees on every grade of steel produced so far. I congratulate and thank the Berkeley team for their hard work delivering, on budget and on schedule, an exciting new growth project for Nucor in the flat-rolled steel market. The wider and lighter product portfolio will allow Nucor to move up the value chain in agricultural, automotive, heavy equipment and pipe and tube applications. This successful start-up is also timely in supporting the Nucor Sheet Mill Group's work to gain profitable market share by developing new, advanced high-strength steels. Our team is aggressively going after the opportunity to develop advanced high-strength steels that provide customers with weight reductions comparable to alternative materials, but at significantly lower costs. In the first quarter, our Nucor Steel Hertford County plate mill shipped a record 56,000 tons of value-added plate products. During the downturn, Hertford County invested in a heat treat facility, a vacuum tank degasser and a normalizing line. These investments continue to pay off for us, with the higher and more stable margins offered by heat-treated products. Our expanded plate portfolio also has allowed us to increase capacity utilization at our Tuscaloosa, Alabama mill by more efficiently distributing work between our 2 plate mills. Not coincidentally, Tuscaloosa set a new quarterly shipment record in the first quarter of 2014. Our Nucor-Yamato structural mill is on schedule for a summer of 2014 start-up of an approximately $115 million project to expand its sheet piling production capabilities. As part of the project's work, one of Nucor-Yamato's rolling mills will have a 3-week outage during the second quarter. The new wider and lighter products will move Nucor-Yamato up the value-added chain in the piling business. They will also allow us to realize more synergies from our highly successful 2012 acquisition of piling distributor Skyline Steel. Congratulations to the team at Duferdofin-Nucor, our joint venture long products business in Italy, on the successful start-up of a revamped ladle metallurgical furnace, a vacuum tank degasser and a revamped 4-strand caster. These investments will allow Duferdofin-Nucor to diversify its markets, so it is less dependent on construction by increasing its product offering to the energy, transportation and yellow goods markets, thereby improving their results throughout the business cycle. Our Nucor teams' work to build sustainable long-term profitability requires that we take a proactive role in our nation's trade policy debate. Global steel production overcapacity is the greatest threat to Nucor and to our industry. Illegal government subsidies from China and other countries have allowed large amounts of cost-inefficient capacity to stay in production and dump steel into the global marketplace. Imports have significantly increased their share of the U.S. market during the current downturn. Imported steel share of U.S. market increased from 25% in 2009 to 30% in 2013. And over the first 2 months of 2014, their share has increased to an alarming 36%. Given the indisputable fact that mills in the United States are among the lowest-cost producers of steel in the world, this makes no sound economic sense. They come here not because of demand, but in many cases, because of foreign producers' excess capacity, unfairly traded pricing and illegal subsidies they enjoy from their governments. We should also understand that the damage done by dumped steel impacts the entire U.S. economy. Illegally traded steel and steel products destroy jobs, the type of middle-class jobs that our economy desperately needs to get back to healthy and sustainable long-term growth. Nucor is working hard to bring attention to the need for our government to enforce rules-based trade. Several current trade case filings underway are of critical importance to Nucor, our customers and other U.S. steel producers. They include rebar, pipe and tube products and wire rod. The 22,000-plus members of the Nucor team urge both the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Committee -- Commission to closely examine the evidence as they prepare their final determinations on potential duties for these cases. Whether it's structural long-term threats, such as illegally traded imports, or other more short-term challenges, such as severe weather in a particular quarter, the Nucor team always runs toward the challenge, not away from it. We run towards the problem and get to work solving it, and not just solving it, but creating from it opportunities for our customers, shareholders and teammates. I can tell you that, that attribute of our culture and our DNA is why I'm more confident than ever that Nucor's best years are still ahead of us. We would now be happy to entertain your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Michelle Applebaum with Michelle Applebaum Research.
Michelle Applebaum - Michelle Applebaum Research Inc.:
So my first question for you is, you're throwing out some numbers that you -- that sound terrific about what's going on at DRI in Louisiana. But I'd like to ask you, and then I have another question. I'd like to ask you to put into perspective for us what some of these numbers mean? And probably one great perspective would be, how does this start-up compare to the start-up of -- or I should say, the restart of Trinidad when you did that?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, as I mentioned in the script, our Louisiana plant start-up, we believe, went very well, and particularly when we compare it to our Trinidad start-up 7 years ago. To begin with, the Louisiana quality targets at start-up were higher than those in Trinidad. At the beginning, when we started our Louisiana plant, our quality targets for metallization were 95.5% and our carbon percentage we were looking for was 4% or better. And that compares to the quality targets at Trinidad at start-up of about 95.5% -- 93.5%, excuse me, 93.5% and about 2.5% carbon. So we started out with higher-quality targets and it's important to note that Louisiana achieved their quality targets in a single week. In 1 week, they reached the quality targets that we had set. And it took Trinidad about -- just to put it in perspective, it took Trinidad about 5 weeks to achieve its quality targets. And in terms of the -- achieving the nameplate daily production, Louisiana reached its daily production nameplate target in 11 weeks versus about 26 weeks for Trinidad to reach its nameplate daily production. And bear in mind that Louisiana's facility's a 2.5 million ton furnace, the largest operating in the world. So this was a first-time event in the production of DRI. Now Trinidad certainly was a big start-up, and we had some challenges there, but it was the restart of an existing facility that had been operating. So it faced a few less challenges. So overall, I would say that -- and I'd also point out that being the largest furnace in the world, during the start-up process, we set daily production records for DRI production out of a single furnace virtually every day during the course of the quarter. So overall, when I look at the start-up of the Louisiana facility, particularly as I compare it to the start-up of the Trinidad facility, our team in Louisiana did a great job, and we're very pleased, very, very pleased with the start-up. Now the team still has more work to do...
Michelle Applebaum - Michelle Applebaum Research Inc.:
Okay, great. My second...
John J. Ferriola:
And we need to focus on the process in Louisiana, not unlike what we had to do 7 years ago in Trinidad, and we have to focus on improving the yield loss that's associated with the start-up in the process.
Michelle Applebaum - Michelle Applebaum Research Inc.:
Okay. My second question is on trade. So we just had the preliminary decision in rebar, and some people are saying that it's partial good news because Mexico had tariffs that were meaningful, not great, but Turkey didn't get much of anything. And I'm just wondering here, and you know I've been observing trade for over 30 years now, and it's something that when you do steel, you spend a lot of time talking to lawyers. And I just can't help but wonder if a failed trade case, a 0 tariff, isn't so much a nontariff as much as an endorsement of what the other guy is doing, a.k.a. sort of a license to steal. And if that's the case, do we have a bigger problem coming between Korea and Turkey now, both in situations where they are essentially being given a kind of a free pass?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, let me start out by saying, Michelle, that these are preliminary findings and that Commerce is not scheduled to give its final determination on these cases until September. I believe it's September of this year. So between now and then, believe me, we will be working hard to convince them to reevaluate their position on Turkey. It's also important to note, though, that Commerce did find, okay, that the producers in Turkey and Mexico were, in fact, dumping into the U.S. market. And in addition, Commerce found critical circumstances for some, although not all, of the foreign producers. Given the surge of imports that we've seen this year, we believe that Commerce should have found critical circumstances for all of the foreign producers dumping into our market. So we're disappointed. We're pleased with some parts of the ruling; we're disappointed with others. We're going to continue to work with Commerce and the ITC to get a better ruling when they have the final determination in September. I got to tell you, I'll go on the record as saying it, we believe the department should have made decisions based on the evidence given in the record that would have produced higher margins for Turkey. And we will continue to work in Washington to express that opinion, utilizing all the strength of all 22,000 of our teammates.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from David Gagliano from Barclays.
David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Great. My questions are actually into trying to drill down a bit more into the economics on the DRI side from Louisiana. If I look at the average scrap and scrap substitute cost per ton figure of $398 for Q1, what was the cost of the DRI per ton that's embedded in that $398 number?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, we're not going to go into those specifics. Clearly, I can tell you our competitors would love to hear those numbers. I will tell you -- I'll make just a couple of general comments, as I made during the -- during my comments in the script, that we will continue to focus on the process. We will continue to improve our -- reduce our yield loss as part of the process. And as we continue to do that, we'll reduce our costs associated with the production of DRI.
David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay, okay, understood. How much -- sorry, how much of the 455,000 tons that was produced during the quarter, how much of that was actually consumed at the steel mills during the first quarter, maybe all of it?
James D. Frias:
David, just a side note, the costs at Louisiana really weren't a factor in the number you quoted because we sell DRI from the -- directly to the steel mills at a market price. So Trinidad operates and generates a profit based on selling pricing costs. And in fact, low competing raw material prices caused Louisiana to sell the materials at a low competing price with pig iron and busheling. So that was a factor in the performance in the quarter. But that number you're quoting reflects a market number.
David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay, okay. Understood.
John J. Ferriola:
To address your second question, I don't have a specific number of how much was shipped out. But what I can tell you is that our mills are receiving it. They are consuming it at a rate of about 30% to 40% of the total charge, and they are extremely pleased with the performance of the DRI in our furnace. And in fact, it's performing slightly better than what we expected in some areas. We've seen significant energy savings as a result of the DRI. Furnace lining life has improved as a result of the coating that the DRI is providing in the process, and the electrode consumption has gone down with the use of DRI. So we're very, very pleased. Our teams are very, very pleased with the way that the DRI is performing in our furnaces today.
David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay. And I apologize for asking the same question a different way here. But I'm just trying to get to the economics, a little bit more color on the economics around how DRI is impacting the profitability. So I guess given that it's sold at a market price, is there a way to give us a sense as to whether, after the cost and the sales transfer price, was that a -- overall, was that a positive or a negative contributor to the result? And if so, can you -- is there a way to frame how much...
James D. Frias:
Well in my script, I talked about what we've identified as pre-operating and startup costs for Trinidad and it was just under $21 million.
John J. Ferriola:
For Louisiana.
James D. Frias:
For Louisiana, excuse me. For Louisiana in the first quarter. And again, there's 2 factors
John J. Ferriola:
Now as we continue to go through the year, we will focus on the process, as I've mentioned. We will improve the yield loss that's associated with the process, and we expect the financial performance to be much stronger towards the second half of this year. As I mentioned in the script, we're going to be shutting down for 3 weeks in June to make some modifications, which is not unexpected, again, in the startup of a new facility, particularly one that's the largest in the world, the first time that we're operating one that large. So we're going to be shutting down. So it's about 3 weeks to make some improvements that we believe will have a significant impact upon the yield loss associated with the process. Reducing the yield loss obviously is going to have a major impact on the cost profile of the facility. And as Jim mentioned, okay, even given the current low market price for competing raw materials, we believe in the second half of the year, we'll perform much better financially.
David Gagliano - Barclays Capital, Research Division:
Okay. Do you believe it'll be profitable in the second half of the year?
John J. Ferriola:
We do, yes. Again, given the current competitive raw material picture, we believe that raw material is pretty much at a low point. We don't think they would get much lower, but again, if that happens, then you've set a new benchmark. So given the current raw materials remain constant going into the rest of the year, we believe that it will be financially positive, profitable, in the second half of this year.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Curt Woodworth with Nomura.
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division:
On the long product side, John, it seems like we've seen kind of mixed trends with respect to bar and beam pricing. It seems like the beam pricing has started to decouple a little bit from the scrap price, but rebar remains relatively depressed. I'm just wondering do you think that's a function of relative demand strength in non-res more benefiting beam or more the import side hampering the rebar pricing?
John J. Ferriola:
Well probably a little bit of both, okay? In terms of the rebar, demand was hurt in the first quarter, obviously, because of the weather conditions. And we do see, as we go into the second quarter, a small improvement in demand that's tied to residential construction improving, again, modestly, and from an extremely low level, okay, but improving. But that's offset by this issue of imports that we've talked about in the script. So without a doubt, although we see a small improvement in demand, it's being -- the pricing is being adversely impacted by the imports. On the structural steel side, on the wide-flange beams side, we see demand also improving marginally, but we don't have that same import pressure. And therefore, pricing has been a little bit more stable.
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division:
Okay. And last question on the M&A strategy. I saw that Steel Technologies has acquired a small processor, I think, a couple of days ago. Is that kind of the beginning of a broader trend for you guys looking at more downstream or processing capability?
John J. Ferriola:
Well we always look for -- it's a case of us finding an opportunity that fit well with our strategy of going downstream. It fit very, very well with our steel tech operations. It was a great bolt-on type operation, did not require a major change in management and a lot of additional cost to it. And it's one of our more profitable downstream products that has been very strong throughout the downturn, frankly, and it's a result of the automotive strength in some other markets that are pretty strong. So we saw an opportunity to get a great company at a good price. It was a good bolt-on operation, and we took the opportunity.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Sohail Tharani with Goldman Sachs.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I wanted to ask you on this downtime or are you going to take in the third week of -- in June for 3 weeks? Do you have any idea what kind of costs should we associate with that in our model?
John J. Ferriola:
Yes, you're talking about the 3-week outage that I mentioned for the DRI facility in Louisiana?
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Yes.
John J. Ferriola:
The cost will not be significant. There's some changes we'll be making into the furnace, but they -- we will not be incurring major costs associated with that. And then there'll be some costs primarily associated with the conveyor systems. You might recall from an earlier call that in Louisiana, we have 4.5 miles of conveyor systems. And just as a point of reference to Michelle's earlier question comparing it to Trinidad, Trinidad has about 1.5 miles of conveyors. So when you have that much material handling, we're seeing some yield loss as a result of the impact of dropping the material from one belt to a transfer house to another. So we're going to be going in and doing some work softening the transferring of the material. It's not expensive work. It's just a bit time-consuming. We'll also be making some adjustments to the internal structure of the furnace, which, again, minor cost, but a bit time-consuming. So we're estimating a 3-week outage. Minimal cost, but we will be down for 3 weeks. And I'll mention before the question is asked that we fully anticipated this, and we've been building our raw material stockpile to take it into account. So we will have sufficient, high-quality iron units on hand to get through, to weather through this 3-week downturn.
James D. Frias:
Sal, as a side point, pre-operating start-up costs were mainly related to Trinidad and the balance we expect - for Louisiana, I kept saying Trinidad -- for Louisiana. And the amount we expect in the second quarter is going to be more in the $10 million to $15 million range, depending on how quickly Louisiana is able to get the yield improvements that they're working on right now.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
$10 million to $15 million in 2Q?
James D. Frias:
Yes.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Great. Helpful. Jim, did you mention in your prepared remarks in very early sentences that half of your volume is tied to non-res? Is that correct what I heard?
James D. Frias:
Generally, that's true, yes.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. I want to ask...
James D. Frias:
[indiscernible]
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I'm sorry, go ahead.
James D. Frias:
I think I said more than half, but go ahead.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
More than half, okay. I want to ask you about the gas project. The gas projects have been steadily going up, and I think people are view that it may last for a while. And I'm wondering are you properly hedged or does it make sense to rethink about starting drilling or you think that you are already committed not to drill this year and you can't change that decision?
John J. Ferriola:
Well we're comfortable with the level that we're hedged, certainly, through this year, and we'll evaluate what we're going to do as we enter into next year. To give you some perspective on that, what we're getting out of our wells, relative to what we're consuming at our furnaces in Louisiana, on average, we were drilling -- we were receiving about 100,000 MMBTUs per day during Q1, okay? And right now, our usage at that the Louisiana facility running pretty much full out, we're consuming 75 million to 80 million MMBTUs per day. So that just gives you some sense of where we stand today in terms of our coverage of gas needs in Louisiana. Now, obviously, as we go through the year and we start some of the depletion on the existing wells, that will change, we're comfortable with the level that we're hedged through this year. We'll reevaluate what we're going to do in the way of drilling next year based upon how we see pricing going forward and other factors.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And when you talked about your loss at the Louisiana plant, if you benchmark it against the Trinidad plant, how far are you off? Are you 10%, 15% below or you think more than that?
John J. Ferriola:
We think it's about 3%, okay? And I will -- but again, I want to point out that when we started the Trinidad plant, the yield loss was more in line with what we're seeing today at Louisiana. Now having gone through the process improvements in Trinidad, we've been able to reduce it. And frankly, we plan to reduce the yield loss in Trinidad even further by the startup of a [indiscernible] that's currently being installed.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
What is the typical lead loss, by the way -- ideal yield loss you would like to see in a DRI plant?
John J. Ferriola:
I'd like to see 0.
James D. Frias:
0.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
But what is achievable? Let's put it this way.
John J. Ferriola:
I would say that somewhere in the neighborhood of 2% to 3% is probably a good goal. Now, of course, when I talk to our team in Trinidad and Louisiana, I will be saying I made a mistake on the call and I'm really looking to achieve is 1.5% to 1%.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Nathan Littlewood with Crédit Suisse.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Just had a few questions, a couple have already been addressed. But could you talk a little bit about some of the market share opportunities you might be seeing at the moment in relation to the blast furnace outages -- or not outages, but sort of ramp backs?
John J. Ferriola:
Well so if I'm understanding the question correctly, you're asking me about are we seeing a demand pickup based on some of the struggles that our competitors are seeing in the marketplace?
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Correct. If you could just talk about what sort of products that might be in, what, sort of end market, that sort of stuff.
John J. Ferriola:
It's primarily in sheets, okay, that most of the difficulty has been occurring. And we're seeing it across all of the sheet markets. It's been a little bit of a challenge for them. We've seen incremental pickup in our orders. We've had customers coming to us looking for additional tons, and we've had new customers coming to us looking for tons. Clearly, as they do, we have been servicing them as we can, as we have the ability to do. But of course, we're not looking for a short-term commitment from them. We are looking to build upon this short-term need by -- frankly, by requesting and, frankly, insisting that we get a longer-term commitment from them on the supply of steel.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Do you think that, that will be successful in terms of sort of what you're trying [indiscernible].
John J. Ferriola:
Now we've already seen success, frankly, on it. Over the last several weeks, we've picked up quite a -- we picked up some incremental business and, of course, with that, some additional market share and, again, in areas of automotive and others, pipe and tube, for example -- excuse me, OCTG and others. Now the situation is still playing out, okay? So we don't know exactly what's going to happen, but we suspect that we'll see a challenged supply side market on sheet at least through the second quarter.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Got it, okay. Second one was just again about DRI. I recall you talking in the past about pig iron being the natural substitute for this DRI material. I'm just wondering based on what you can see at the moment in terms of raw materials pricing, is pig iron still the right material to be substituting at the moment? And the second question, I was just thinking more broadly about the operation of this facility. I'm trying to understand how quickly you guys can kind of move your raw material procurement strategy to take advantage of different price spreads between all those raw materials. So if, for example, 1 week, we saw fair scrap prices drop by $20 or $30 relative to pig iron at DRI, HBI, whatever. How quickly could you kind of change your raw material blend to kind of take advantage of that?
John J. Ferriola:
Frankly, at a moment's notice. Our furnaces are extremely flexible, and I've mentioned several times that one of the key benefits we see of our DRI strategy is it gives our team the ability to do substitutions as the raw material costs change. And given the flexibility of our furnaces, now we basically charge our furnace from heat to heat, from batch to batch. So we can make those changes very, very quickly and we have a great team, our David J. Joseph Company, that's continuously out there, getting a great sense of what's happening in the market. They look at what's happening with pig iron pricing. They look at what's happening with prime scrap markets. We know what's going on with DRI. We look at HBI. And frankly, we even look at obsolete scrap. So at the end of the day, if obsolete scrap drops to a very low level, we can put more obsolete scrap into our furnace and achieve the same iron unit quality by putting more DRI into the furnace. So to answer your basic question, we can change mixes into our furnace on a heat-by-heat basis. So almost instantaneously we can change them, and we keep enough inventory at our plants to be able to change that mix on a regular basis. And in terms of looking out into the future to build the inventories, our teams are always -- our team at D.J. Joseph, through their trading arm, have a great deal on what's coming down the pipe in terms of pricing and we can adjust for future demands also.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Got it, understood. And just, I guess, to round out Dave's questions a little bit further, I know you were talking about a year or so ago about potential savings on this DRI plant of about $100 per ton in terms of DRI, the pig iron substitution. We've obviously seen coking coal come off a lot, pig iron prices come down. If you were to reforecast that $100 today, what do you think the number would be?
John J. Ferriola:
Well one of the things that we have on our website that's available is the calculator for just that purpose. It just gives you the ability to plug in different iron ore pricing and coking coal pricing in the price of gas per MMBTU. And when you do that, you can get a good comparison between the final cost of the liquid iron coming out using DRI and/or out of a blast furnace. So I would suggest, I don't have the math in front of me right now, but I would suggest that, that you use that tool to take a look at it. Certainly, coking coal is at an unusually low number. I don't know the current number today. The last time I looked it was, last week, I think it was about $115 a ton, somewhere in that ballpark. Keith, is that about?
Keith B. Grass:
$115 to $120.
John J. Ferriola:
$115 to $120. And iron ore is also at a very low level, about $125, $126, a little bit lower, somewhere in that range. So these are unusually low numbers and, frankly, it's a result of demand for steel worldwide slowing down, the slowdown in China. Now that's going to change. When we talked about the advantages that we saw in the DRI project a year ago or 1.5 years ago, we were looking at it relative to the competitive raw material cost at the time, and we were looking at it in relation to the other products that you mentioned, coking coal and so forth. So things change, and we've always said consistently that whether the DRI facility in Louisiana is a single or a grand slam, is going to be a result of factors that include -- strongly include the price of competitive raw materials and the pricing of the commodities that go into blast furnaces to produce competitively priced iron units.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Is there any updates that you'd be able to offer in terms of commitment to the Phase 2 plant?
John J. Ferriola:
We get asked that question every time. Let me make sure I understood the question. You're asking were we willing to make a commitment at this time to when we would proceed with a second DRI facility?
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Correct, yes.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, as I said in the past, no. Not at this time. We're continuing to look at it. We want to get the first one up and running and stabilized. And then we're going to take a look at the environment with all the factors that I mentioned earlier and make the decision on when it's appropriate to move forward. I will say, as I always add as a caveat, we have the land, we have the infrastructure, we're gaining the knowledge and we'll be ready at the right time.
Nathan Littlewood - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Understood. And just a final one, circling back on the trade case stuff that Michelle was asking about earlier. I guess we were pretty surprised at how big the Mexico tariff was, or duty was, and also surprised at how low the Turkish number was. When you think about your sort of involvement in the case over the next few months and, I guess, the dagger and analysis that you'll be sort of contributing to that, is there any sort of data points or analysis that you could kind of refer to or talk about that might give us confidence that maybe those Turkish duties are going to be increased relative to the preliminary decision?
John J. Ferriola:
Well all I can tell you is that, again, the final determination will come in September. Between now and then, the appropriate agencies will be taking a hard look at the, what we call, the in-country verifications to make sure that what was testified to in the hearings is, in fact, the accurate information. Now we believe that, that, as we look at the data that was put into the record, that they should have had higher duties applied, and we'll be pushing that issue. Of course, it's -- the ultimate call is Commerce and the ITCs.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Timna Tanners with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
I'm going to be bold here. I'm not asking about DRI or trade cases. But it seems to me that there's -- but there's 2 things that I thought you kind of glossed over, if you don't mind my saying so, on the script. And one is that you said you are aggressively going after the opportunity to pursue high-strength lightweight steels. And, I mean, I'm sure you've heard that the aluminum folks are talking aggressively as well about their opportunities, but what does it mean for Nucor to be going after this aggressively? What does that mean? Are you qualified? Are you sending volumes to the auto industry? Can you help me just understand how to think about that or model that opportunity going forward?
John J. Ferriola:
Certainly, well I'll make some comments. As I mentioned, we're continuing to develop and to seek qualification of advanced high-strength steels. We continue to make significant strides in the exposed automotive applications. We're in various stages of qualifications for both cold-rolled and galvanized, exposed parts with imminent supply agreements at hand. Some new, as I mentioned on the last call, Timna, some Nucor sheet is already in use for exposed applications. And we tend to focus on sheet, but there's other areas of automotive that we're going after, too, and that's in the SBQ. And we've developed products that are currently in use in crankshaft steels. We are producing actual steels for the automotive industry in our facility in Norfolk, Nebraska. We're developing gear steels for drivetrain applications in our Memphis facility. And, I guess, maybe to help you understand a little bit about what we're doing, you need to take a look back at some of the CapEx that we've spent in the last couple of years that are specifically focused on attracting more automotive business. The number of degassers that we've installed throughout the company, the wide light project that I mentioned again today in the script, which includes a 7-stand at Berkeley. That's going to give us an opportunity with a 72-inch wide product to get into some products for the automotive that we can't currently produce without it. The Decatur automotive quality galvanizing line that we started up a few years ago, the quality of assurance line that we started up last year in Memphis. So when you look at the focus that we put in terms of our CapEx investments, you should have some level of confidence of how successful we can be moving into the automotive arena. And what also might help you, Timna, just to give you some idea of where we stand today. In 2013 in sheet, SBQ and cold finish, the products that go into automotive, about 11% of those products that we produced went into automotive today, or in 2013. One more point that I would tell you and that is this, the automotive companies like the reliability that Nucor offers them. We're extremely reliable with our 4-sheet mills. And as a result, the auto companies themselves have been actively working with our auto team to help us qualify, develop, qualify and get our steel into their automotive or into their cars.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Okay. I thought 10% or so was your historical percent exposure to auto. So maybe would it be helpful to think about how that compares with where you've been historically or the incremental amount? Or obviously I'm asking for a lot here, but margin per ton or volumes? If at some point, you're able to provide that, I know that would be something that could be really interesting.
John J. Ferriola:
Well we'll take that under advisement. I'm not sure where the 10% number came from in the past. I can tell you that we've grown that significantly over the last 2 years. It is about 11% today. We expect it to grow another 4% to 5% next year, above that level. And our long-term goal, again, focusing just on the sheet SBQ and cold finish, our long-term goal would be somewhere around 15% of those products. And I'm just now getting some information from my teammates here about where the 10% number came from and that was -- it was 10% of the total steel that was supplied at that time went into automotive. The 15% is for sheet, cold finish and SBQ shipments.
Timna Tanners - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
Got you, okay. The other question I had was if you could give us some color on the comments about your second quarter, obviously, some improvement could mean a lot of things. So could you tell us what your customers are saying, particularly with regard to any pent-up demand after the particularly tough first quarter?
John J. Ferriola:
Well I can tell you that our key service center customers are reporting stronger shipments, and our shipments to the end markets that we serve are also improving. Inventories at the service centers, as you know, are at historically low levels. The entire supply chain is extremely lean. And it does seem to be some catch-up going on. I noted in the earnings release this morning, the Reliance Steel release this morning, David Hannah, the Chairman and CEO, stated that both demand and pricing increased sequentially for 3 months in a row during the first quarter, a trend that we have not experienced since 2012. So we see that as a very good sign. So yes, we see some pickup. We think the second quarter will be somewhat better than the first. We tend to be a little conservative, okay? Because we don't know what's going to -- how things are going to play out. Right now, our backlogs are good across all of our product lines, our steel lines and our downstream businesses. We've seen, and particularly of note in the downstream businesses, the order entry rate and backlogs during the first quarter improved significantly. Our structural business, as I mentioned earlier, is doing well. Certainly, the -- our plate business is doing very, very well. And as we come out of the winter and go into the spring, the construction sites are going to ease up, open up. You'll see construction that has been challenged in the first quarter, because of the weather conditions, will start to move again. So we feel pretty good about the second quarter.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Phil Gibbs with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
John, I just had a question on the iron ore supply chain into the DRI project. Are you, from a lead time perspective, able to get that in a month or 2? Or in the first quarter where you were costing maybe some iron ore that would have been priced, call it, mid-2013 or, call it, 3Q '13 levels, just trying to understand the supply chain there.
John J. Ferriola:
Phil, we have a very regular supply chain that comes in on, basically, on a monthly basis. So it's very short -- costing tends to be very current with the current market pricing. It's a regular supply. We get a couple of sources in Brazil and a source in Canada, and we get it even from one source in Sweden, okay? So yes, as you know, that iron ore pricing is based upon a 3-month contract. That's the way it's done now. So we -- our consumption is current with a current 3-month contract. We don't have a long lead time. And because of the various locations we bring the product in from, we are not subjected to any weather issues. We don't need to buy an icebreaker.
Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Okay. I appreciate that. And then for Jim, any sort of way you could characterize the first quarter? I think you said $20 million of start-up losses in DRI. And I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but how much of that was related to things that were purely, maybe more mechanical versus the cost of the actual unit coming out, if there's any way to separate those 2 things? Or maybe you don't even look at it that way. I'm just trying to understand that.
James D. Frias:
It wasn't really mechanical cost. There was probably some overhead cost of having some contractors and support people there that helped them during the startup. But I would say the majority was truly related to conversion costs.
John J. Ferriola:
Yes, let me build on that for a minute, Jim, and say that in the last call, I used the term hiccups, and I guess I used it too much, okay? But I was very pleased to find out I'm a terrible predictor of what's to come because I got to tell you what. From equipment perspective, from an operating perspective, the startup in Louisiana was absolutely stellar. You think about the fact that there's 4.5 miles of conveyor systems supported by, if I have the number right, I believe it's something like 12,000 supporting rollers. You think about those numbers and we had very, very few shutdowns due to equipment in the first quarter. The team did a great job and the equipment performed extremely well. I just can't say how pleased we are with the equipment in the operating side. Now as Jim mentioned again, listen, we've got to focus on the process. It's a new process. And when I say it's new process, it's a new process for us. It's a larger furnace. The HYL process itself is a proven technology. It is not a new technology. But whenever you go through any startup -- I started up several milk shops in my career -- and whenever you start, going through the startup is inevitably a more significant yield loss during the startup that occurs than when you become more familiar with the process and you get all the variables under control. For example, here in Louisiana, we have several different sources of iron ore that go in. The amount of gas that's used with different types of iron ore is a factor that will affect the yield. So it's not an issue of the process or the equipment. It's an issue of becoming familiar with the different mixes and the products that are being produced and optimizing that process.
Philip Gibbs - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And can you just remind us, and I think you mentioned it already, about how much you're physically hedged on natural gas and if there's any more wells that you have that are, call it, in development or where you expect to be at the end of this year?
John J. Ferriola:
Yes. We're currently -- at the end of Q1, we're currently at 277 operating wells and we expect to be at about 316 when we wrap up the drilling program in June. So that gives you some idea of where we are. And again, in terms of production, we average just under 100,000 MMBTUs per day in Q1. And currently at our DRI facility in Louisiana, we're consuming somewhere between 75,000 and 80,000 MMBTUs per day. So that gives you some idea of the relative hedge that's in place. And as I mentioned earlier, that will change with time as we move forward, both with increasing production at Louisiana and as the wells deplete. But we're very comfortable with where we are in our hedge position, certainly for this year. And as we get closer to the end of the year and look at what happens with the curve, the future curve for gas pricing going forward, we'll examine that again at the end of the year, and make a decision on whether to resume drilling in 2015. Again, as I mentioned on our last call, the gas is not going anywhere, so it's going to stay there in the ground. If we can drill it when it's 425, that's good. If we can drill it when it's 775, that's a whole lot better. So it's not going anywhere. It's there available to us. We don't lose anything by waiting, and we have the opportunity to take it out of the ground at a higher price, as we believe gas pricing will, over time, ultimately increase, okay?
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Brian Yu with Citi.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
My first question is just on exports. Could you speak to how much volume you did? And then along those lines, Jim, we do have stronger pricing in the domestic market. Is there an opportunity to try to divert some of those tons back to the domestics, given the better margins here?
John J. Ferriola:
Currently, we're exporting about 8% of our total production, to answer your first question. And can you repeat the second question? I wasn't quite sure what you meant by diverting it back.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Yes. Just that it seemed like, for many products, we have better pricing here. So I want to see if there's an opportunity to try to sell those domestically given the price improvements we've seen in the U.S. versus [indiscernible]...
John J. Ferriola:
Okay. Actually, good question, and it points out a clarification I should make. When we talk about exporting 8% of our product for total production, we target on exports very high-valued steel for special applications, and so the pricing for it, even on an international basis, is very good. So the differential that you're talking about is more on the commodity grades. We don't export a lot of the commodity grades. We tend to focus on the higher-quality products, going for higher-quality, higher-valued applications overseas. So there really is not that much of a difference in pricing internationally and domestically on those products.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. And just I want to make sure that I've got all the moving pieces squared away on DRI because there's been a lot asked about it. Just first off, on the start-up cost, it's $20 million in the first quarter, and you're expecting $10 million to $15 million in the second quarter, so some improvement there.
James D. Frias:
That's correct.
Brian Yu - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
And then volumes, just from my "back of the envelope" calculations with the 3-week shutdown, you might be looking at about 470-some-odd-thousand tons versus 455,000 in the first quarter, so maybe slightly better volumes in 2Q? And then just on the yield loss, since you're taking this downtime towards the tail end of the second quarter, any improvements on yield we're unlikely to see until 3Q?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, there's -- yes, first of all, just what we're projecting in terms of production out of the DRI facility in the second quarter is probably around 500,000 tons, okay? So even though, with the 3-week outage, because of the improvements that were made in production, we will still produce about 500,000 tons. Secondly, to your question of whether we'll see the yield loss improvements or the yield improvements, only after we make the changes at the end of the month -- at the end of the quarter, excuse me, at the end of the quarter, that's partially true. But there's also another factor that comes into yield loss, and that's with the bricketer. And we're installing a bricketer, which will be up and running, okay, very, very shortly, okay? It'll be -- the bricketer will be up and running in the next 2 to 3 weeks. We expect to see a significant yield loss improvement or significant yield improvement with the start up and running of the bricketer Now we are also installing a bricketer in Trinidad, but that's not going to be ready for probably towards the end of the year. Okay?
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Martin Englert with Jefferies.
Martin Englert - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
I had a quick question on the plate improvement in the volumes there. They're up pretty substantially year-on-year. I just wanted to get an idea if this is mainly market share gains or improving end user demand there.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, it's a little bit of both. Okay, certainly, demand is up. But I have to tell you that the -- our ability to piggyback business given the heat treat and normalized product that we offer to the market now, we've increased significantly the breadth of product that we offer to the market. And with that, we have increased our market share, and the plate market has been strong. It's been going well. Pricing has been good, and demand has been good.
Martin Englert - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
What's been the primary driver within the demand on the consumption on their improvement?
John J. Ferriola:
There's a lot of things that are doing well, shipbuilding, pod [ph] Building, railcars, bridge projects. Wind towers are still strong. I mentioned railcars, but specifically, tank cars with all of the movement of natural gas, there's a big demand for that. So all of those markets are strong. We're kind of hitting on all cylinders right now.
R. Joseph Stratman:
Yes. Martin, this is Joe Stratman. I'd like to add one thing. You'll recall a couple of years ago, we set out to improve the mix we have in the plate business, expand products. So we're more able now to go after a broader range of plate products, and those plate products that are in higher demand and offer higher margins at any given point in the cycle. We have a better ability to participate in those markets than we did 2 or 3 years ago.
John J. Ferriola:
And I want to make a correction here. I mentioned -- when I was talking about tank cars, I mentioned natural gas. I meant to say oil. There's been so much discussion about DRI and natural gas that I made a Freudian slip.
Martin Englert - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
That's helpful. And one other one within the rebar fabrication business. I wanted to get an idea of the opportunity there, if you have a ballpark estimate on what kind of utilization or what type of annual capability you have within downstream rebar fab.
John J. Ferriola:
You want to take a shot at that, Ray?
Raymond S. Napolitan:
Well, as far as rebar -- yes, this is Ray Napolitan. As far as rebar fabrication goes, we certainly have additional utilization capabilities, in combination with our Bar Mill Group partners. And let's suffice to say we're not stretched at this point in time.
John J. Ferriola:
One thing I would add though, Ray, is given the placement business that we've just acquired a short time ago and the fact that we can offer a complete solution to the customer, the rebar fabrication and placement has helped us improve our market share and our volumes.
Raymond S. Napolitan:
Yes, absolutely, John, is moving up the value chain with fabrication and placing, a single-stop shop for our customers. So yes.
Martin Englert - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
How are the backlogs looking within rebar fab year-on-year?
Raymond S. Napolitan:
Backlogs in rebar fab are up year-on-year and so are order entry levels.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Aldo Mazzaferro with Macquarie.
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
I have 2 questions. First one, kind of a simple one, in terms of your comment about the energy costs having risen about $7 a ton, which quite a significant number, can you say how many quarters you might think it would take to revert to normal? Or is it there already?
James D. Frias:
You talking about energy costs?
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
Yes.
James D. Frias:
The energy costs are our market. How quickly they revert to normal will depend, I think, on weather, frankly, and how quickly natural gas supplies and storage, all those get to the point where those prices get pushed back down. But we saw increases in both natural gas costs and electricity costs at our steel mills. And that the $7 number does not include the benefit of our natural gas produced in our working interest agreement relationship. That shows up separately in our raw materials segment with the DRI business.
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
Okay. So you -- did you say you it -- you think it's mostly reverting now or not yet?
James D. Frias:
It has started getting better, but I don't think it's gotten back to levels we saw in the fourth quarter yet.
Aldo J. Mazzaferro - Macquarie Research:
Great. Okay. And then on a separate topic, your -- you got extremely strong liquidity on your balance sheet right now, including the credit line. And I see your CapEx is closer, maybe a little below depreciation levels. I'm wondering can you talk a little bit about your 3- to 5-year view as to what Nucor wants to be 3 to 5 years out in terms of size or products? Especially, what are your plans for that money?
John J. Ferriola:
Nucor wants to be in 3 to 5 years as the most profitable steel and steel products company in the world. That's our -- that's always been our goal, and our intention is to achieve it. In terms of what direction we're going to go in terms of investments, it's really impossible to say. We have such a breath of products across our company that we have the potential to look at many opportunities. And so it's really a question of what opportunities become available, how they're priced, how they fit in with the long-term strategy of the company and whether it's the right move to make at that time. So we like to say we keep our powder dry. We keep a strong balance sheet so that we're ready when the right opportunity comes, and we'll take advantage of it at the right time.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Matt Murphy with UBS.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
On -- if I look across your product lines, most product lines seem to be pushing to post-recession highs. Maybe sheet stands out as a little bit of a laggard. Does that basically come down to price discipline? And I mean, you talked a little bit going forward about trying to get to some business back as customers are finding themselves short. Can you just elaborate on that a little bit more?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, the sheet market has been more challenged than other markets. Rebar has also been extremely challenged. The drivers in both of those cases, frankly, is imports. Imports have had a devastating effect on rebar pricing. It has had a devastating effect on sheet pricing. In both cases, we see demand picking up a little bit, but not significantly. So -- and then touching upon your other question, going back to the challenges in the sheet market that some of our customers are experiencing and what it's done for us, as I mentioned earlier, we picked up incremental business during these supply disruptions. And conditional to the pushed-in business, we make sure that we will take the business, conditioned upon the fact that it stays on our books and awarded to Nucor throughout the rest of the calendar year. So we're taking advantage of the opportunities as they come up. But certainly, sheet has been a challenged market, along with rebar.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
And what mix of clients that you're talking to would have been former clients versus new clients on the sheet?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, I don't know that I have that number. Frankly, we take care of our long-term customers. So our long-term customers who have had issues with other suppliers, who are coming to us, we are certainly taking care of them first. We don't have a lot of interest in customers who come to us only in times of needs -- need when their regular supplier has let them down because they're not as reliable as Nucor is as a supplier. So I don't have a specific number. But I would tell you that I think the additional tons that we're able to supply to people in need, most of them are going to our longer-term customers who have been loyal to us, and we're taking care of them now.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Got it. And then on your automotive business, I don't need to know, have margin comparisons between your SBQ or your initiatives in high-strength steels. But could you put in order for me kind of your rank of where you would produce material, if you had the choice, in terms of high-strength sheet, SBQ or just cold finish?
John J. Ferriola:
I don't know that I would differentiate them and put them in any order of priority. They're all good businesses. And so we're focused on all 3 and we're working hard to develop new products in all 3 of those areas. So we don't put one above the other. We're focused on all 3 areas.
Matthew Murphy - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. And in the SBQ market, are you seeing any impact from new domestic competition?
John J. Ferriola:
There's -- Jim?
James R. Darsey:
Yes. Jim Darsey. Several years ago, additional SBQ capacity was announced. Nucor and other companies announced additional SBQ capacity in anticipation of the market for SBQ growing in this country. And the market continues to grow and is -- from our perspective, the SBQ producers have added capacity that has absorbed the growth in the market. It's been pretty well balanced.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Evan Kurtz with Morgan Stanley.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
I'll try to keep it brief. I know it's almost 3:20. So just one quick one on DRI. I know every question has possibly been asked, but I have one more. It's carbon levels. We are you today? Where do you hope to be? And are you having to charge carbon at your EAF at the current levels if you're replacing pig iron?
John J. Ferriola:
Currently, we're at about 4% carbon level. That's really a good level of carbon. We might be able to push it up another .25%, but I don't see us going much more above that. But 4% carbon on DRI is a really good quality product. To your other question of are we still in [indiscernible] ...
Ladd R. Hall:
[indiscernible]
John J. Ferriola:
Oh.
Ladd R. Hall:
Yes. This is Ladd Hall. The more carbon you put in within the DRI, the less carbon you inject. We're still injecting some of them. I do want to make one thing clear. There's a certain point where you don't want a certain amount of carbon in that DRI. When you take -- put carbon in, you're taking metallics out. So there is a magic number in there, and we're probably around 4-plus percent of that magic number. That's where we're going to be at. We're not really striving to get a higher carbon number than that.
John J. Ferriola:
Okay, thanks Ladd.
Evan L. Kurtz - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Got you. And just one last one. On the auto sheet front, do you have any plans of building a continuous annealing line and get into Gen 3 products?
John J. Ferriola:
Well. we're always taking a look at new opportunities, so I'm not going to say no. But at this point, it's not high on our list of things to do. But we are studying it. We've taken a look at the market, and we're going to see whether or not that's something we need to move forward.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Michael Gambardella with JPMorgan.
Michael F. Gambardella - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
John, I have a question on the sheet market. How much capacity do you have freed up that you can take share from some of your competitors right now?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, let's see. Probably, we're operating somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% to 85% capacity utilization. So we would have a small amount that we could continue to take. Now of course, that's where we are today. Well, we did have quite an influx of orders over the last couple of weeks. So we're in the process of processing those orders. So I would say that we're getting close to the point where we would not be able to take any more business. But at the right price, you can always work in a few tons. So if there's a customer listening to the call that needs some steel in a hurry, give us a call.
Michael F. Gambardella - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
And where -- how far out are you booked right now on sheet?
John J. Ferriola:
We're up to the end of June.
Michael F. Gambardella - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
And what's the pricing for at the end of June right now on hot rolled?
John J. Ferriola:
I'm not going to give any specific price, but we're in the neighborhood of about $680 to $700.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Andrew Lane with Morningstar.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Really, just one question for me. Now that your mills are using increasing volumes of DRI produced in-house, how have your scrap purchasing practices changed, if at all? You discussed the batch-to-batch flexibility that DRI application allows for when selecting quantities of various feedstocks. But have you already begun to change your actual usage mix of obsolete scrap relative to higher-quality scrap as you apply incremental DRI to your melts?
John J. Ferriola:
Absolutely. As I mentioned earlier, we've been able to achieve mixes of up to 30% to 40% of DRI. And when you get to that level, it allows you to put much more obsolete scrap into the furnace. So we are adjusting our mixes on a regular basis. We're taking a look, as I mentioned earlier, on pricing of all of the various commodities, and we're making adjustments as to optimize the mix cost.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And was that -- are you...
John J. Ferriola:
[indiscernible] right now.
Andrew Lane - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Yes. And was that 30% to 40% kind of a target level that you're -- you have achieved and you're happy with? Or is that going to be pushed higher in the coming quarters?
John J. Ferriola:
We'll work to move it a little bit higher. But I have to tell you, we're pretty high -- we're pretty happy with that percentage. You go back just a couple of years when we've had the quality of the DRI nowhere close to where it is today. We had about -- facility in Trinidad, as well as the 1 in Louisiana, we were in the neighborhood of only being able to achieve 8% to 10% of the total raw material input. Today, we're at 30% to 40%. We pushed it on an experimental basis. At 1 of our facilities, we were over 50%. I'll leave it at that.
Operator:
And we'll take our next question from Sal Tharani.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
You have a -- you mentioned a spreadsheet you have on your website, which is very helpful in terms of calculating the cost of DRI. I was wondering how should we think about the iron ore cost? Is it -- do you have a lag? I mean, do you buy a 3-month lag or 4-month lag? Some companies in the U.S. have that kind of formula. I just was wondering, when we use iron ore price, what should we use in the calculation? Because iron ore price changes almost everyday.
John J. Ferriola:
Well, mostly iron ore is sold on a quarterly contract price basis, okay? So when you want to look at what you would put into the formula, you would look at the last quarter's contract price, okay? So it's really a 3-month lagging number. If you want to look at it and currently, it would be in the December, January, February, March levels.
Sohail Tharani - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, great. That's helpful. And one more thing on the -- you had -- you are one of the companies who had walked away from the CRU-minus contracts, which I would -- I think is a very good strategy. I was just wondering if anything you can share in terms of what you learned or any regrets, anything you missed out or you think that it was -- it worked very well as you had expected?
John J. Ferriola:
Well, it's proven to be a good decision, without a doubt, particularly with our ability to take advantage of the spot market improvement over the last couple of weeks. We've been able to manage our sheet order book to a more effective balance between contracts and real spot market pricing. So overall, we're very pleased with -- we believe it was a good decision. We're pleased with the outcome.
Operator:
It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Ferriola, I would like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.
John J. Ferriola:
Thank you, and let me conclude by saying thank you to our shareholders. We certainly appreciate your confidence and your support. Thank you to our customers. We appreciate your business. I want to say thank you to my Nucor teammates for creating value for our customers, generating attractive returns for our shareholders and building a sustainable future for all of us. And most importantly, like always, thank you for doing it safely. Thanks to you all for your interest in Nucor. Have a great day.
Operator:
This now concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation.