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PG&E Corporation
PCG · US · NYSE
18.12
USD
+0.08
(0.44%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Stephen J. Cairns Vice President & Chief Audit Officer --
Mr. Ajay Waghray Executive Vice President & Chief Information Officer --
Mr. Matthew B. Hayes Vice President of Enterprise Health & Safety and Chief Safety Officer --
Mr. John R. Simon Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer 1.99M
Mr. Kaled Awada Executive Vice President & Chief People Officer --
Ms. Carla J. Peterman Executive Vice President of Corporate Affairs & Chief Sustainability Officer --
Ms. Stephanie N. Williams Vice President and Controller 753K
Mr. Jonathan P. Arnold Vice President of Investor Relations --
Ms. Carolyn J. Burke Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President 2.19M
Ms. Patricia Kessler Poppe Chief Executive Officer & Director 5.21M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO A - A-Award Common Stock 78468 0
2024-06-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO D - F-InKind Common Stock 49300 18.54
2024-05-17 FLEXON ROBERT C director A - A-Award Common Stock 15053 0
2024-05-17 FERGUSON III MARK E director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Denecour Jessica director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Cooper Kerry Whorton director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Cannizzaro Edward G director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Campbell Cheryl F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Bahri Rajat director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Fugate William Craig director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Harris Arno Lockheart director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 HERNANDEZ CARLOS M director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 NIGGLI MICHAEL R director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Smith William Lloyd director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-17 Wilson Benjamin Francis director A - A-Award Common Stock 9677 0
2024-05-03 Glickman Jason M EVP, EPS at PG&E Company A - A-Award Common Stock 152401 0
2024-05-03 Glickman Jason M EVP, EPS at PG&E Company D - F-InKind Common Stock 83495 17.53
2024-04-30 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 59000 17.08
2024-03-15 Santos Marlene EVP, CCO at PG&E Company A - A-Award Common Stock 213949 0
2024-03-15 Santos Marlene EVP, CCO at PG&E Company D - F-InKind Common Stock 117844 16.25
2024-03-16 Burke Carolyn Jeanne EVP and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4961 16.25
2024-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 65595 0
2024-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 108890 0
2024-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 90362 0
2024-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 59248 16.6
2024-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 65595 0
2024-03-01 Waghray Ajay EVP & Chf Information Ofc A - A-Award Common Stock 44494 0
2024-03-01 Waghray Ajay EVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 20571 16.6
2024-03-01 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 16004 0
2024-03-01 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 8797 16.6
2024-03-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO A - A-Award Common Stock 48193 0
2024-03-01 Singh Sumeet EVP, Ops &COO at PG&E Company A - A-Award Common Stock 44494 0
2024-03-01 Singh Sumeet EVP, Ops &COO at PG&E Company D - F-InKind Common Stock 20453 16.6
2024-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 305452 0
2024-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 575558 0
2024-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 354427 16.6
2024-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 305452 0
2024-02-27 Awada Kaled EVP, Chief People Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 60278 0
2024-01-16 Awada Kaled EVP, Chief People Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-09-12 Campbell Cheryl F. director D - S-Sale Common Stock 10000 16.9
2023-06-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO D - F-InKind Common Stock 9487 16.56
2023-05-19 Bahri Rajat director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Campbell Cheryl F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Cooper Kerry Whorton director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Denecour Jessica director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 FERGUSON III MARK E director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 FLEXON ROBERT C director A - A-Award Common Stock 16857 0
2023-05-19 Fugate William Craig director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Harris Arno Lockheart director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 NIGGLI MICHAEL R director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Smith William Lloyd director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Wilson Benjamin Francis director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 HERNANDEZ CARLOS M director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-05-19 Cannizzaro Edward G director A - A-Award Common Stock 10836 0
2023-03-30 Burke Carolyn Jeanne EVP Finance A - P-Purchase Common Stock 156 15.9
2023-03-14 Burke Carolyn Jeanne EVP Finance D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-03-22 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4519 15.54
2023-03-16 Burke Carolyn Jeanne EVP Finance A - A-Award Common Stock 24753 0
2023-03-14 Burke Carolyn Jeanne officer - 0 0
2023-03-15 Santos Marlene D - F-InKind Common Stock 57185 15.86
2023-02-24 Cannizzaro Edward G - 0 0
2023-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 42514 0
2023-03-03 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 66700 15.87
2023-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 41807 15.61
2023-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 42514 0
2023-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 7716 0
2023-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8237 15.61
2023-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 7716 0
2023-03-01 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 3050 15.61
2023-03-01 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 3420 15.61
2023-03-01 Singh Sumeet EVP, Ops &COO at PG&E Company D - F-InKind Common Stock 3368 15.61
2023-03-01 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1833 15.61
2023-03-01 Cox Julius EVP/Ppl, Shrd Svcs & Spply Chn D - F-InKind Common Stock 9329 15.61
2023-02-27 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 31750 0
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 131924 0
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 134879 15.83
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 131924 0
2023-02-15 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 18202 15.83
2023-02-15 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 32523 15.83
2023-02-15 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 16164 15.83
2023-02-15 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 44152 15.83
2023-02-15 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc A - A-Award Common Stock 77076 0
2023-02-15 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 32449 15.83
2023-02-15 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc A - A-Award Common Stock 99098 0
2023-02-15 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 44346 15.83
2023-02-15 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 45737 0
2023-02-15 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 16085 15.83
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 266803 0
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 132188 0
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 134615 15.83
2023-02-15 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 132188 0
2023-02-15 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 45737 0
2023-02-15 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - F-InKind Common Stock 17956 15.83
2023-02-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 901 19.634
2023-02-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 1000 20.215
2023-02-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 12500 21.95
2023-02-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 650 17.97
2023-02-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 17940 22.44
2023-02-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1500 17.999
2023-02-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 1000 16.18
2023-02-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 500 16.21
2023-02-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 4930 17.866
2023-01-31 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 500 19.624
2023-01-30 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2000 22.014
2023-01-31 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2713 22.113
2023-01-30 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 2500 17.452
2023-01-31 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 500 17.45
2023-01-30 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 2000 17.6
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 600 20
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 6000 22.024
2023-01-27 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 5000 22.307
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 2000 17.7
2023-01-27 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 500 18.145
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 2523 16.328
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 1000 17.907
2023-01-27 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 1300 17.85
2023-01-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 500 18.02
2023-01-24 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4300 21.478
2023-01-24 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 2000 19.553
2023-01-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 1000 19.77
2023-01-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 69700 21.996
2023-01-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 2000 17.798
2023-01-24 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 3000 17.708
2023-01-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2800 21.07
2023-01-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 6300 21.351
2023-01-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 1020 19.5
2023-01-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 511 17
2023-01-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 500 16.51
2023-01-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 1006 17.625
2023-01-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 500 17.6
2023-01-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 2200 18.305
2023-01-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2000 20.797
2023-01-19 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 5616 21
2023-01-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1340 17.368
2023-01-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 725 16.699
2023-01-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 4898 17.439
2023-01-10 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-01-10 Williams Stephanie N VP and Controller I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-01-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4442 20.582
2023-01-17 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4000 20.613
2023-01-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 500 17.681
2023-01-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 5575 17.084
2023-01-17 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 2239 17.355
2023-01-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2000 20.583
2023-01-12 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 3500 20.541
2023-01-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 1011 17.53
2023-01-12 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 1700 16.4
2023-01-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 1811 17
2023-01-12 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 1203 17.53
2023-01-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 4170 17.319
2023-01-12 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 5000 17.101
2023-01-09 PG&E Fire Victim Trust director D - S-Sale Common Stock 60000000 15.26
2023-01-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 3831 20.547
2023-01-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2793 20.651
2023-01-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 2800 19.213
2023-01-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 1500 17.35
2023-01-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 500 16.991
2023-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 678470 0
2023-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 776633 15.88
2023-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 678470 0
2023-01-04 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 6118 20.603
2022-12-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 3102 18.934
2022-12-19 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 500 17
2022-12-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 6200 20.352
2022-12-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 3273 17.05
2022-12-13 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 800 16.94
2022-12-12 PG&E Fire Victim Trust director D - S-Sale Common Stock 60000000 15.135
2022-12-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2217 20.383
2022-12-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1693 16.947
2022-12-12 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1700 16.94
2022-12-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 2199 17.089
2022-12-07 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 6136 20.557
2022-12-06 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1000 16.94
2022-12-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 1308 20.33
2022-11-30 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 500 20.41
2022-12-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 1000 20.47
2022-12-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 1400 17.035
2022-11-29 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 1600 20.41
2022-11-28 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 400 17
2022-11-29 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 4900 17.015
2022-11-28 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 501 17.1
2022-11-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 1000 20.33
2022-11-22 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1600 16.962
2022-11-22 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 700 16.94
2022-11-21 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2690 20.426
2022-11-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 700 16.94
2022-11-21 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 1900 17.036
2022-11-21 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 701 17.064
2022-11-18 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 1000 16.94
2022-11-21 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 714 17.004
2022-11-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 600 17
2022-11-17 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 2000 16.94
2022-11-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 500 16.47
2022-11-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4936 20.457
2022-11-14 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 3008 16.942
2022-11-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 5140 17.225
2022-11-14 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 861 16.85
2022-11-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 500 16.5
2022-11-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 600 17
2022-11-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 9544 20.357
2022-11-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 2920 20.634
2022-11-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 2000 16.97
2022-11-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 500 17.075
2022-11-07 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 500 17.075
2022-11-08 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 800 17
2022-11-02 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4446 20.539
2022-11-03 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 15255 16.951
2022-10-28 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 13300 20.349
2022-10-27 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 3600 16.882
2022-10-28 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 1900 17.33
2022-10-27 PG&E Fire Victim Trust director D - S-Sale Common Stock 35000000 14.77
2022-10-26 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 599 21.105
2022-10-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 500 19.252
2022-10-21 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 872 20.7
2022-10-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 3500 17.93
2022-10-04 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 500 18
2022-10-04 PG&E Fire Victim Trust director D - S-Sale Common Stock 35000000 13.65
2022-09-23 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 8646 12.61
2022-09-22 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 57396 13.11
2022-09-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 948 18.0311
2022-09-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 500 18
2022-09-08 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 83330 13
2022-08-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 1600 18.5
2022-08-24 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 4072 18.0228
2022-08-25 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 500 18.58
2022-08-13 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 36719 12.13
2022-08-13 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 33021 0
2022-08-04 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 694 18.01
2022-07-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 2000 19.5
2022-06-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 1652 18
2022-06-09 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 449 20
2022-06-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO D - F-InKind Common Stock 8416 12.25
2022-06-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 1000 21.5347
2022-05-31 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 4116 23.7585
2022-05-27 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 803 19
2022-05-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 1378 23.7544
2022-05-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 500 23.75
2022-05-23 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 100 21.5
2022-05-20 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner D - S-Sale First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 2705 20.2544
2022-05-19 FLEXON ROBERT C A - A-Award Common Stock 18121 0
2022-05-19 FERGUSON III MARK E A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Denecour Jessica A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Cooper Kerry Whorton A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Campbell Cheryl F. A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Bahri Rajat A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Wilson Benjamin Francis A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Smith William Lloyd A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Seavers Dean A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 NIGGLI MICHAEL R A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 HERNANDEZ CARLOS M A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Harris Arno Lockheart A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-05-19 Fugate William Craig A - A-Award Common Stock 11532 0
2022-04-14 PG&E Fire Victim Trust D - S-Sale Common Stock 60000000 12.04
2022-04-05 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 500 24.2632
2022-04-01 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 2400 24.2917
2022-04-05 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 2400 24.2917
2022-03-22 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2895 11.62
2022-03-11 HERNANDEZ CARLOS M - 0 0
2022-03-15 Santos Marlene D - F-InKind Common Stock 46107 11.5
2022-02-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 44122 28.06
2022-02-15 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 1200 28.225
2022-02-11 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 299 29.1
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 56611 26.303
2022-02-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 41917 25.05
2022-02-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 8716 23.95
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 48387 24.6997
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 546 25.713
2022-02-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 144 23.75
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 29427 24.5
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 55662 26.4
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 58083 25.783
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 2125 23.345
2022-02-16 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 15267 26.25
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner A - P-Purchase First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 962 25.591
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 6% nonredeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 5.50% nonredeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 5% redeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 4.50% redeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 4.36% series A redeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 5% series A redeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 5% nonredeemable 0 0
2022-02-10 Newtyn Management, LLC 10 percent owner I - First pref stock, par value $25, 4.80% redeemable 0 0
2022-03-01 Wright Adam L D - F-InKind Common Stock 25223 11.3
2022-03-01 Cox Julius EVP/Ppl, Shrd Svcs & Spply Chn D - F-InKind Common Stock 9152 11.3
2022-03-01 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 2353 11.3
2022-03-01 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO D - J-Other Common Stock 607.46 0
2022-03-01 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - F-InKind Common Stock 2501 11.3
2022-03-01 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - J-Other Common Stock 2222.13 0
2022-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 41807 11.3
2022-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - J-Other Common Stock 1165.74 0
2022-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5142 11.3
2022-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 10810 0
2022-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - J-Other Common Stock 3105.29 0
2022-03-01 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 1880 11.3
2022-03-01 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - J-Other Common Stock 2548.43 0
2022-02-08 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Singh Sumeet EVP/CRO & Chf Safety Ofc I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Cox Julius EVP/Ppl, Shrd Svcs & Spply Chn D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Peterman Carla J EVP/Corp. Affairs & CSO I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-02-08 Waghray Ajay SVP & Chf Information Ofc I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-01-31 PG&E Fire Victim Trust 10 percent owner D - S-Sale Common Stock 40000000 12.09
2022-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 710099 12.44
2022-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 710099 12.44
2021-12-03 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 320 11.81
2021-11-05 Harris Arno Lockheart director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 8475 11.8099
2021-09-01 FLEXON ROBERT C director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 10000 9.28
2021-08-13 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 27244 9.12
2021-08-13 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 42495 0
2021-08-13 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 42495 0
2021-05-20 Fugate William Craig director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Wilson Benjamin Francis director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Treseder Oluwadara Johnson director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Smith William Lloyd director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Seavers Dean director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Harris Arno Lockheart director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Denecour Jessica director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Cooper Kerry Whorton director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 NIGGLI MICHAEL R director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 FLEXON ROBERT C director A - A-Award Common Stock 21153 0
2021-05-20 FERGUSON III MARK E director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Campbell Cheryl F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-20 Bahri Rajat director A - A-Award Common Stock 13461 0
2021-05-03 Glickman Jason M - 0 0
2021-03-22 Foster Christopher A EVP & Chief Financial Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 25113 0
2021-03-15 Santos Marlene A - A-Award Common Stock 212105 0
2021-03-15 Santos Marlene - 0 0
2021-03-01 Wright Adam L A - A-Award Common Stock 145852 0
2021-03-01 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 14586 0
2021-03-01 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 298 10.97
2021-03-01 Wright Adam L A - A-Award Common Stock 145852 0
2021-03-01 Wright Adam L A - A-Award Common Stock 71104 0
2021-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 2910205 0
2021-03-01 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 252963 0
2021-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 47858 0
2021-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2637 10.97
2021-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 5543 0
2021-03-01 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 5543 0
2021-03-01 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 486 10.97
2021-02-25 Smith William Lloyd director A - A-Award Common Stock 136748 0
2021-02-25 Smith William Lloyd director D - F-InKind Common Stock 55539 10.88
2021-02-01 Wright Adam L - 0 0
2021-01-01 Singh Sumeet Sr. Vice Pres. & Chf Risk Ofr D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-01 Singh Sumeet Sr. Vice Pres. & Chf Risk Ofr I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-01-04 Poppe Patricia K Chief Executive Officer - 0 0
2020-12-03 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 319 12.6
2020-11-17 Smith William Lloyd Interim CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 70540 11.72
2020-09-26 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-09-26 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO I - Common Stock 0 0
2020-09-26 Foster Christopher A Vice President and Interim CFO D - Stock Option (Right to Buy) 3911 41.26
2020-08-16 SIMON JOHN R EVP, GC, Chief E&C Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 139479 0
2020-08-16 Wells Jason P. EVP and CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 139479 0
2020-08-01 Lewis Michael A Interim Pres, PacificGas&Elec D - F-InKind Common Stock 336 9.35
2020-08-01 Lewis Michael A Interim Pres, PacificGas&Elec D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-08-01 Lewis Michael A Interim Pres, PacificGas&Elec I - Common Stock 0 0
2020-08-01 Lewis Michael A Interim Pres, PacificGas&Elec D - Stock Option (Right to Buy) 4045 42.51
2020-08-03 WOOLARD JOHN M director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Wilson Benjamin Francis director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Treseder Oluwadara Johnson director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Seavers Dean director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 NIGGLI MICHAEL R director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Harris Arno Lockheart director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Fugate William Craig director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Smith William Lloyd Interim CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 163934 0
2020-08-03 FLEXON ROBERT C director A - A-Award Common Stock 20146 0
2020-08-03 FERGUSON III MARK E director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Denecour Jessica director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Cooper Kerry Whorton director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Campbell Cheryl F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 Bahri Rajat director A - A-Award Common Stock 12820 0
2020-08-03 PG&E Fire Victim Trust 10 percent owner A - J-Other Common Stock 748415 0
2020-07-01 PG&E Fire Victim Trust 10 percent owner D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-07-01 FLEXON ROBERT C - 0 0
2020-07-01 Wilson Benjamin Francis - 0 0
2020-07-01 Treseder Oluwadara Johnson - 0 0
2020-07-01 NIGGLI MICHAEL R director D - Common Stock 0 0
2020-07-01 Seavers Dean - 0 0
2020-07-01 Harris Arno Lockheart - 0 0
2020-07-01 Fugate William Craig - 0 0
2020-07-01 Cooper Kerry Whorton - 0 0
2020-07-01 Bahri Rajat - 0 0
2020-07-01 Denecour Jessica - 0 0
2020-07-01 WOOLARD JOHN M director A - A-Award Common Stock 11628 0
2020-07-01 Campbell Cheryl F. director A - A-Award Common Stock 15504 0
2020-07-01 Smith William Lloyd Interim CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 11628 0
2020-04-13 Wells Jason P. EVP and CFO A - G-Gift Common Stock 11433 0
2020-04-13 Wells Jason P. EVP and CFO D - G-Gift Common Stock 11433 0
2020-04-01 Barrera Richard R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 4008.31 0
2020-04-01 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 4008.31 0
2020-04-01 Mullins Eric D. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3562.95 0
2020-03-06 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Common Stock 51411 0
2020-03-02 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy A - G-Gift Common Stock 8234 0
2020-03-02 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy D - F-InKind Common Stock 3918 15.05
2020-03-02 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy D - G-Gift Common Stock 8234 0
2020-03-02 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4508 15.05
2020-03-02 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 728 15.05
2020-03-02 Loduca Janet C. SVP, General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 815 15.05
2020-02-21 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Stock Option (Right to Buy) 363022 50
2020-02-21 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Stock Option (Right to Buy) 340333 40
2020-02-21 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Stock Option (Right to Buy) 272266 25
2020-02-21 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Common Stock 96240 0
2020-02-21 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President D - F-InKind Common Stock 39346 17.92
2020-02-21 Vesey Andrew CEO & Pres, Pacific Gas & Elec A - A-Award Common Stock 38498 0
2020-02-21 Vesey Andrew CEO & Pres, Pacific Gas & Elec A - A-Award Common Stock 38498 0
2020-02-21 Vesey Andrew CEO & Pres, Pacific Gas & Elec D - F-InKind Common Stock 13296 17.92
2020-02-21 Vesey Andrew CEO & Pres, Pacific Gas & Elec D - F-InKind Common Stock 13296 17.92
2020-02-20 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy A - G-Gift Common Stock 2923 0
2020-02-20 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy A - A-Award Common Stock 4528 0
2020-02-20 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy D - F-InKind Common Stock 1605 17.85
2020-02-20 SIMON JOHN R EVP, Law, Strategy and Policy D - G-Gift Common Stock 2923 0
2020-02-20 Thomason David S. VP and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 679 0
2020-02-20 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 278 17.85
2020-02-20 Loduca Janet C. SVP, General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 793 0
2020-02-20 Loduca Janet C. SVP, General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 325 17.85
2020-02-20 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 4528 0
2020-02-20 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1648 17.85
2020-01-02 Mullins Eric D. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 2764.98 0
2020-01-02 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3110.6 0
2020-01-02 Barrera Richard R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3110.6 0
2019-12-11 Vesey Andrew CEO & Pres, Pacific Gas & Elec A - A-Award Common Stock 12004 0
2019-12-03 Loduca Janet C. SVP, General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1170 8.52
2019-10-11 WOOLARD JOHN M - 0 0
2019-10-11 Smith William Lloyd - 0 0
2019-10-01 Mullins Eric D. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3030.3 0
2019-10-01 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3409.1 0
2019-10-01 BUCKMAN FREDERICK W director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3030.3 0
2019-10-01 Barrera Richard R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 3409.1 0
2019-09-10 JOHNSON WILLIAM D CEO and President A - A-Award Common Stock 31413 0
2019-08-19 Vesey Andrew officer - 0 0
2019-08-08 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 137 18.51
2019-08-01 Lewis Michael A SVP, Elec Ops, PacificGas&Elec D - F-InKind Common Stock 336 18.05
2019-07-05 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1548.88 0
2019-07-05 BUCKMAN FREDERICK W director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1376.78 0
2019-07-05 Barrera Richard R director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1548.88 0
2019-07-05 Mullins Eric D. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1376.78 0
2019-06-03 Christopher Melvin J VP Gas Ops, Pacific Gas & Elec D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-06-03 Christopher Melvin J VP Gas Ops, Pacific Gas & Elec I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-06-03 Christopher Melvin J VP Gas Ops, Pacific Gas & Elec D - Phantom Stock 135.58 0
2019-06-03 Christopher Melvin J VP Gas Ops, Pacific Gas & Elec D - Stock Option (Right to Buy) 5866 41.26
2019-05-10 Mullins Eric D. director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1612.9 0
2019-05-02 JOHNSON WILLIAM D officer - 0 0
2019-04-22 BUCKMAN FREDERICK W - 0 0
2019-04-13 Welsch James M. VP Gen, Chief Nuclear Officer D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-13 Welsch James M. VP Gen, Chief Nuclear Officer I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-13 Welsch James M. VP Gen, Chief Nuclear Officer D - Stock Option (Right to Buy) 9776 41.26
2019-04-09 LIANG KENNETH director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 Wolff Alejandro Daniel - 0 0
2019-04-09 Schmidt Kristine M - 0 0
2019-04-09 MOORE MERIDEE director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 Mielle Dominique - 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 LEFFELL MICHAEL J director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-04-09 Campbell Cheryl F. - 0 0
2019-04-09 Brownell Nora Mead - 0 0
2019-04-10 Bleich Jeffrey L. - 0 0
2019-04-09 Barrera Richard R - 0 0
2019-03-13 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO A - G-Gift Common Stock 14365 0
2019-03-13 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO D - G-Gift Common Stock 14365 0
2019-03-01 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 6144 17.91
2019-03-01 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 922 17.91
2019-03-01 Soto Jesus Jr. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2427 17.91
2019-03-01 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO A - G-Gift Common Stock 10277 0
2019-03-01 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 5434 17.91
2019-03-01 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 10277 0
2019-03-01 MISTRY DINYAR B SVP HR D - F-InKind Common Stock 2027 17.91
2019-03-01 Malnight Steven E. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2334 17.91
2019-03-01 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 1066 17.91
2019-03-01 Kane Julie SVP, Chief Compliance Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2045 17.91
2019-02-22 MISTRY DINYAR B SVP HR D - F-InKind Common Stock 1490 18.77
2019-02-19 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 2669 0
2019-02-19 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 916 17.74
2019-02-19 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 1753 0
2019-02-19 SIMON JOHN R Interim CEO A - G-Gift Common Stock 1753 0
2019-02-19 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 3559 0
2019-02-19 Wells Jason P. SVP and CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1303 17.74
2019-02-19 Thomason David S. VP and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 514 0
2019-02-19 Thomason David S. VP and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 211 17.74
2019-02-19 Soto Jesus Jr. A - A-Award Common Stock 1513 0
2019-02-19 Soto Jesus Jr. D - F-InKind Common Stock 617 17.74
2019-02-19 MISTRY DINYAR B SVP HR A - A-Award Common Stock 1068 0
2019-02-19 MISTRY DINYAR B SVP HR D - F-InKind Common Stock 429 17.74
2019-02-19 Malnight Steven E. A - A-Award Common Stock 1335 0
2019-02-19 Malnight Steven E. D - F-InKind Common Stock 546 17.74
2019-02-19 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 623 0
2019-02-19 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 253 17.74
2019-02-19 Kane Julie SVP, Chief Compliance Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 1068 0
2019-02-19 Kane Julie SVP, Chief Compliance Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 437 17.74
2019-01-13 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-01-13 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-01-13 Loduca Janet C. SVP, Interim General Counsel D - Stock Option (Right to Buy) 7332 41.26
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Transcripts
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Release. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Jonathan Arnold, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold :
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E's second quarter 2024 earnings call. With us today are Patty Poppe, Chief Executive Officer, and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today's earnings presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides, along with other relevant information, can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We'd also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2024. And with that, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patty Poppe.
Patricia Poppe :
Thanks, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of solid progress. Our core earnings per share for the second quarter came in at $0.31, bringing us to $0.69 for the first half. We are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $1.33 to $1.37, up at least 10% from 2023. And we're also reaffirming our longer-term earnings per share growth of at least 9% each year starting in 2025 and continuing through 2028. In addition, we remain firm in our commitment to no new equity in 2024, and there have been no changes to our five-year financing plan, which we shared with you during our first quarter call. Moving to Slide four. We were excited to see so many of you in June at our investor event in New York City. Our message in New York was that with our layers of physical and financial protections as the foundation, and with our simple, affordable model making critical infrastructure investments affordable for our customers, we see a pathway where electrification can deliver a decarbonized energy future at a lower societal cost. As we discussed in New York, new load is actually a key enabler to lowering the unit cost of electricity, eliminating the green premium, and enabling a low carbon future. This potential for a cleaner, more resilient energy future at a lower cost to consumers is why we refer to our graphic on this slide as the power pyramid. It's what motivates our team every day here at PG&E. It's our mandate and also our mission. It's beneficial for our customers and it's also good for our investors. Just this month, in fact, the CPUC voted out Phase 2 of our general rate case, authorizing an incremental $2.3 billion of capital investment for energization with an opportunity to go back in and request more if customers need it. We were encouraged by comments from the commissioners, which supported the thesis that connecting new load can be beneficial for broader customer affordability. At the same meeting, the CPUC approved staff's resolution affirming increasing our return on equity to 10.7%. California's regulatory environment is strong, forward-looking, and delivers real value for customers and investors. Using the power pyramid as our framework, and turning to Slide five, a brief update on our performance mitigating physical risk. The bottom line is that our layers of protection strategy has reduced wildfire risk significantly across our service area. I'm sure you've seen plenty of news coverage of recent heat and wind events we've been experiencing in California, and I could not be prouder of our team for their continued tenacity with consistent execution, day in and day out. Take, for example, the 8.5-day stretch over the July 4th holiday week. This was the longest-duration excessive heat warning ever issued by the National Weather Service Bay Area Office, and it brought in increased system reliability risk as well as elevated wildfire risk. What's important is our readiness posture no matter the conditions on the ground, and the results speak for themselves. No flex alerts and no serious safety incidents. On the reliability front, California has added over nine gigawatts of capacity in just the last year, and it did the job. The state now also has ten gigawatts of battery storage that are providing significant benefits in terms of additional flexible supply to the grid, and this is more than double the battery capacity from this same time last year. Overall, our system performed well in the early July heat wave and benefited from numerous proactive steps taken ahead of time. For example, when looking at San Jose data and comparing July performance to the September 2022 heat wave, unplanned and sustained outages were down more than 50%, with the total cumulative duration of those outages down more than 85%, and the Bay Area region overall saw a 22% reduction in outages. This is climate resilient infrastructure in action for new extreme weather norms. On the wildfire front, the key takeaway is that while we've certainly seen a more active start to this year's wildfire season, as of today, we've had no fires of consequence linked to PG&E. We are pleased with this performance given the increased wildfire activity being seen across California. So far this season, we've planned and prepared for three PSPS events and executed two with about 2,000 customers affected in the largest one. Risk is certainly up versus 2023 with our circuit mile days under high-risk conditions increasing 48% year-to-date and our CPUC reportable ignitions under R3 or higher conditions running at 20 year-to-date versus six at this time last year. These dynamic conditions require a dynamic response. To prevent ignitions, we have layers of protection as listed on slide five, all of which have been improved year-over-year, including another year of inspections and repairs, more vegetation management, and more system hardening, both undergrounding and covered conductor. Finally, when conditions warrant, we can turn to public safety power shutoffs. Where we do have ignitions, thanks to EPSS and improved situational awareness tools, including our weather stations, advanced meteorology, and fire science models, we have less energy released and faster reaction times as our post-ignition mitigations come into play. These include our safety infrastructure protection teams made up of 90 former firefighters who protect our assets every day. Our 32 public safety specialists, most of whom are former CAL FIRE or U.S. Forest Service Chief Officers with at least 30 years of agency leadership experience. Our 24/7, 365 hazard awareness warning center. Over 600 wildfire cameras with AI smoke detection automatically notifying first responders. Plus, rapid response capabilities, including Blackhawk helicopters equipped to drop water on fire retardants, which we are making available to county fire agencies to supplement the significant state-level resources deployed through CAL FIRE. One point I would like to note is that we recently completed a third-party risk assessment by Moody's. Analysis using the Moody's RMS wildfire model estimates that our mitigations have reduced the risk of economic loss to PG&E from wildfires by 93%. Going forward, you should expect us to refer to this third-party benchmark, which it is based on a model widely used by the insurance industry to price risk, takes into account a wider range of conditions than the CPUC methodology we referred to in the past, and provides for better comparability across other utilities. The key message is, no matter the conditions, our physical risk mitigations are making our system safer every day. Turning to Slide 6, financial risk mitigations are also in place through Assembly Bill 1054. These include access to liquidity, an improved prudence standard, and a cap on shareholder exposure. With our customer-funded self-insurance in place since 2023, our near-term financial exposure is limited to $50 million deductibles, while our customers benefit from the significant savings compared to commercial insurance. While the benefits of AB 1054 are in place and working as designed, I know that some of you are keen to see the wildfire fund reimbursement process in action. Well, during the second quarter, we passed the $1 billion threshold for settled claims related to the 2021 Dixie Fire. This means that we are now eligible to access liquidity from the fund. Our accrual for the Dixie Fire remains $1.6 billion, and the fund previously took a $600 million reserve in anticipation of funding our claims. We've been working closely with the administrator to ensure an orderly reimbursement process beginning as soon as the third quarter, with requests for payment to be submitted monthly. We made our first such request earlier in July, and the fund has a statutory requirement to reimburse us within 45 days of claim adjudication. Given that timeline, we anticipate having an update on progress with our next quarterly call. California, both physically and financially, has an entirely differentiated safety posture for our citizens and our investors. Wildfire has become a well-understood risk with well-understood mitigations and controls. Moving up our power pyramid, here on Slide 7 is our simple affordable model with our strong existing plan on the left and the opportunity we see for amplification on the right. Execution against this model is how we make needed safety, reliability, and resiliency investments while keeping bills at or below inflation for our customers. Think of this as our runway for additional value for customers and investors, an enduring winning model with no big bets. Now, let's turn to Slide 8 and my story of the month. I wanted to share an update from the team working on reinventing our inspections. As a reminder, in June, we shared that using our performance playbook, we're avoiding costs by doing the right work through changes to our inspection strategy. You heard from our team at our Dublin Innovation Center that they expect to save over $100 million this year, and that's roughly 50% of our O&M reduction target. Our reinvented process is resulting in less false positives, and the team has already realized $15 million of O&M savings through standard work, aerial inspections, and bundling. Most importantly, we are identifying the right work and completing it 50% faster than our previous standard. This is the power of our performance playbook, and it's just one example of the culture of performance that we are shaping at PG&E. With that, let me turn it over to Carolyn.
Carolyn Burke :
Thank you, Patty, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm looking forward to covering three topics with you. First, our results of the first half of 2024. Second, our continued execution against our simple affordable model. And third, an update on our regulatory progress. Starting here on Slide 9, we are showing you our walk for our first half results. Through June, our quarter earnings of $0.69 are up $0.17 over the first half of last year. Remember that our general rate case was approved in the fourth quarter when we booked the catch-up revenues for all of 2023. Adjusting the first half of 2023 for the GRC timing, our results are up $0.10 year-over-year. The uplift is mainly driven by higher customer capital investments. Non-fuel O&M savings of $0.03 reflect savings realized by our team reinventing inspections as well as improvements to our contract spend. This is offset by $0.05 reinvested back into the business to fund our emergency response and preparedness programs and incremental corrosion maintenance, just as two examples. Turning to Slide 10, we have not changed our CapEx or rate-based guidance this quarter. However, the recent GRC Phase 2 energization decision has further improved our confidence in the potential for upside. Our base plan continues to include $62 billion of customer capital investment over the next five years with a focus on distribution and transmission. In terms of benefits, our capital plan is balanced, providing safety, enabling new business, supporting the clean energy transition, and improving reliability and resiliency. And we can make it more affordable as we amplify our simple affordable model. As we reaffirmed in June, we have line of sight into at least another $5 billion of incremental T&D investment, and we intend to bring some of this into our plan once we make it affordable for both our customers and our balance sheet. We were pleased to see the commission approve their proposed decision in our GRC Phase 2, implementing provisions of Senate Bill 410 earlier this month. The decision authorizes incremental spend of up to $2.3 billion to fund new energization projects through 2026, with the potential for additional increases in 2025 and 2026, which we were encouraged to request. This decision has increased our percentage of rate-based already authorized and, in our view, is a positive proof point of how we can work constructively with the commission to balance customer needs with affordability and support California's clean energy transition, leveraging the opportunity presented by beneficial load growth. As you know, we plan conservatively and have not yet folded in the full authorized amount to our plan. Finally, I'll remind you, approval for our Oakland General Office, which was moved out of our 2023 GRC into a separate filing, is on the CPUC's consent agenda for August 1st. This is another $900 million of rate-based. As we shared with you on our first quarter call, we have a strong and balanced financing plan in place to support this capital growth. As shown here on Slide 11, there's no change from what we shared with you last quarter. Overall, our plan prioritizes customer capital investment and our commitment to investment grade ratings while also layering in dividend growth over the next five years and meeting our commitment to parent debt paydown. I also want to reinforce that we've built flexibility into our plan and the equity is already contemplated in our earnings guidance of at least 10% this year and at least 9% each and every year through 2028. With our capital and financing plans in place, we are focused on executing against our simple affordable model to ensure this growth is affordable for customers. Moving to Slide 12, reducing operating and maintenance costs. As shown, we beat our 2% reduction target in both 2022 and 2023. I believe three years would be a trend and I'm pleased to report that we are making good progress against our target again in 2024 and I am confident that we will meet or exceed our 2% goal. And let me tell you why? In 22 and 2023, large enterprise level programs helped us come in better than target. Going forward, we can see planning, execution, and automation ramping up as our team is trained and executes against our performance playbook, including our lean operating systems and breakthrough thinking. You can also expect to see improvements in our capital to expense ratio. This is important for customers because we can afford costly annual repairs with long-term durable capital. For every dollar of ongoing expense saved, we can invest roughly $7 of capital while holding customer bills flat. Our capital to expense ratio is currently 0.8, meaning we spend $0.80 of capital for every dollar of expense. Our peers averaged 1.4 in 2022 and improved to 1.6 in 2023. Our five-year plan would bring us nearly on par with the peer average. And as you can imagine though, we don't plan on for average. And the best in class utilities currently have capital to expense ratios well above 2. The next element of our simple affordable model is load growth. Overall, we're in a differentiated position when it comes to beneficial load growth. Specifically, we are the hometown utility to Silicon Valley, home of AI and innovation and headquarters to major cloud service providers. As Jason Glickman, our head of engineering detailed in June, the Bay Area has the best fiber network and connects to a grid that is majority powered by renewables, making it one of eight primary data center markets in the U.S. We also have one of the largest overlapping electric and gas distribution service areas. And finally, our state and local policies are driving the need for electrification. I want to emphasize that beneficial load growth is new load that helps to reduce monthly electric bills for our existing customers. It allows us to deliver industry-leading rate-based growth and deliver on our plan to keep customer bill growth at or below inflation. We shared the map here on Slide 13 with you in June. Specifically, how data centers and even to a larger extent, electric vehicles can improve customer affordability. Specifically, incremental revenue from this new load without a need to modify our tariff is projected to more than offset the cost of our additional capital needed. This final element of our simple affordable model is efficient financing. I am pleased to provide you with an update that we expect to close our final securitization issuance under AB 1054 next week. In aggregate, the three AB 1054 issuances support $3.2 billion of safety spend while delivering meaningful financing savings to our customers. As we continue to deliver on our simple affordable model and meet our commitments, we also see continued progress working with policymakers and stakeholders as shown on slide 14. We already discussed the Commission's final decision on our GRC capacity phase and their affirmation of our increase to an ROE of 10.7% under the cost of capital adjustment mechanism. Additionally, we continue to work towards final guidelines with our safety regulator, OEIS, for our 10-year undergrounding filing. As we like to say, performance is power, and we're pleased to see our performance reflected in steadily improving credit ratings as shown here on slide 15. We're now just one notch below investment grade at both Moody's and Fitch and on positive outlook of both. We will continue to build upon the progress we've made reducing physical risk, improving financial metrics, and maintaining strong governance as we remain steadfast in our goal to achieve investment-grade credit at the parent company. Finally, here on Slide 16, I'd like to end by leaving you with a reminder of our value proposition. It's one fueled by differentiated performance, placing the customer at the heart of everything we do and delivering 9.5% rate-based growth through 2028 and at least 10% core earnings per share growth in 2024 and at least 9% 2025 through 2028. And with that, I'll hand it back to Patty.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Carolyn. Our power pyramid is our differentiated path forward built on the foundation of safety with well-understood and well-managed wildfire-related physical and financial risk. Our simple affordable model delivers for customers and investors with room to grow. Ultimately, California's aspiration for an electrified economy at a lower societal cost is our destination and we are well on our way. This is a winning proposition for our customers, for the state of California, and for you, our investors. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.
Shar Pourreza :
Hey guys, good morning. Patty, obviously you guys have talked about this in the prepared comments, but it's obviously been a pretty active fire season. So starting off kind of on the plan for undergrounding, I mean obviously we appreciate that you're waiting for the final go-ahead for filing, but I guess how have your assumptions and plan evolved over the past few quarters? Any thoughts on maybe layering in incremental miles versus the GRC approved levels?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, that's a great question. Obviously undergrounding is top of mind and I'll open by saying we continue to see undergrounding as a critical element of our total layers of protection. It's one of the layers and one of the most important layers in our highest risk, most vegetation dense areas. So we definitely stand by our commitment to underground our highest risk miles. As we work through the application process of our 10-year filing, look, we're still working through with OEIS. In fact, there's a public workshop scheduled for today to continue to look at the necessities related to the filing. And so as we look at the timing of that filing, it's going to be wholly dependent on what those requirements are and what the expectations of OEIS require. So given that, we have 1,230 miles approved in the GRC through 2026. And we intend to, obviously, we're on track this year to meet the mileage requirements. I don't see us filing a different kind of filing between here and the filing of the 10-year plan. And so I don't think there will be incremental mileage added outside of either our next GRC or the undergrounding 10-year plan. Those are two good mechanisms. And given the direction of our regulators, we'll use the appropriate one to file for the next range of miles.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Okay, that's perfect. Thank you. And then just lastly, any comments on sort of the Park Fire in Butte County? I mean, is there any kind of early indications on the cause or any kind of presence of PG&E's equipment? I guess, how are you executing on PSPS preparedness and response in that area? I mean, it's such a new event. There's no data on it, no EIRs, and we're getting a lot of questions. It'd be great if you can maybe just provide a little bit of elaboration. Thanks.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, well, first of all, our hearts go out to the folks near and around Chico, and we pray for their safety and the safety of our firefighters who are out there doing valiant work. Right now, there are no indications of our equipment being involved or contributing at this time, and there are no anomalies detected on our system at the reported time of the fire start. And one of the things, Shar, that I'll share with you that gives me great comfort, and I would hope that it would give investors great comfort, is we know. We can see our situational awareness with our 24/7, 365 Hazard Awareness Center. We're on the job, and we can see, we know what's happening. We can have boots on the ground immediately, and I'm just so thankful for our partnership with CAL FIRE, as well as our own safety crews that I mentioned in our prepared remarks, and our public safety specialists. They give us a level of awareness and understanding that just didn't exist just a handful of years ago, and I'm so thankful for our team being so ready and on the job at all times. I will offer, you mentioned PSPS. You know, here it is July. We haven't done PSPSs in July before, but we did this year. That's our readiness posture. We've done two small ones. The first one was about 2,000 people. Look, these are -- we've sectionalized our system. We've enabled the ability to very targetedly respond to changing conditions and be prepared. I just can't overly emphasize how important it is that that daily readiness should be reinforced for folks. We have a totally differentiated safety posture here in California, and specifically my team here at PG&E is ready and on the job and partnered with CAL FIRE hand in glove.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Thank you, and I know it's been a very difficult season this year, and congrats on the execution so far around it. It's pretty obvious. Appreciate it.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Shar.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleischman with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman :
Yes, good morning. Thanks.
Patricia Poppe:
Morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, no, would agree, a lot of success in managing that risk this year. So just on the, I guess a couple questions. First, to a degree, it sounds like you're getting closer to potentially being in a position to invest some of the incremental capital beyond the plan. And just any framework to think about the financing part of that once you get there? Yes.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Steve. Yes, so I think what's very important is that, and we've communicated this before, that we do have a framework. We have certain guideposts when we consider financing any new capital. One, it needs to be affordable for customers, and then we define that as being within the 2% to 4% of bill growth that we've talked about over the course of our plan. It must be accretive to EPS. And, again, I'll just remind you that our current financing plan assumes issuance of equity and still meets the 10% growth this year and 9% in ‘25 to ‘28. And, finally, it needs to be helpful to our balance sheet. So those are our goalposts. And when you look at our current financing plan, two key elements that we've maintained. It's balanced, and it provides flexibility. And that flexibility, again, is in the ramp-up of the dividend and then the parent debt pay-down of $2 billion by the end of 2026. So when we think about new capital, we, you know, just think about our current financing plan and using that same approach. We're going to be balanced, and we're going to try to maintain flexibility. And so you can assume, one way to think about this is that you can assume that we're going to follow our authorized regulatory structure at the utility and always find ways to make it as efficient as possible by using the parent debt -- on the parent level. So we'll always be mindful of market conditions. We're very aware of where our stock is trading. And we're going to maintain, as I said, that balance and that flexibility.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then one other question, just I know you've been highlighting the data center growth in your region, and then also in the past the -- I think been the leader in electric vehicle adoption. Could you just be curious to get some of the data? I know you're decoupled, but it'd still be good to get some of the data on how those things are tracking this year.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, Steve. This is an exciting part of our story. And, you know, as we mentioned in New York, and some people may remember this, right now in our plan, we only have a couple hundred megawatts of data center load growth built into our capital plan. So the cluster study that's underway where we're looking at our pipeline of data center demand that we shared in New York, we're going to make sure that any of that we would add in would be incrementally beneficial for customers, both on cost savings for customers, most specifically. We don't want our residential customers subsidizing the big data center load growth. And so this year that study is underway. We have a lot of demand, as we mentioned. And, in fact, by offering up the opportunity to participate in this cluster study, we've gotten much better visibility to what the real forecasted expectations should be. And so when we complete that study, we'll share those results. But, obviously, that's not materializing in terms of load this year because that's the plan for coming years. On the EV front, EVs continue to sell well here. We're up to now 610,000 EVs on the road in California, in fact, in our service area, up from 580 that we reported in New York. So we're tracking at about 25% of new vehicles sold continue to be electric. And given the CARB Regulation, the executive order here in California for banning internal combustion engines by 2035, we are actively benefiting from the transition. And it's interesting because I know I spend time in other parts of the country, and when I'm there, I don't see what I see here in California, which is an active adoption of electric vehicles and the infrastructure being built out to serve them. So we continue to see EV load growth, and that's, again, beneficial, as we shared, to customers from a cost perspective. Both that customer who bought the EV saves about 20% of their household energy costs because the switch from gasoline to electricity is cheaper, as well as all customers benefit because that's the kind of beneficial load that we love the most.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities. Please go ahead.
Jeremy Tonet :
Hi, good morning. I was just wondering if you could walk through the energization order in process going forward to secure more of the CapEx at this point?
Patricia Poppe:
So are you asking, Jeremy, about the regulatory procedures, or are you asking about the actual CapEx?
Jeremy Tonet:
The procedures.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, okay. So first of all, you know, the commission's order to include $2.3 billion of incremental funding is a cap. And so what we do then is we'll make filings that reflect what we actually were completing and up to that cap. So what was really good was that the commission made it clear that if there were incremental demand beyond that cap, which frankly we see, then we can make additional applications. And we'll consider doing that even yet this year to show that when we have real demand that we can serve, we'll file for that and that should give the commission then more visibility into what the actual customer need is. And therefore, that could go above and beyond that $2.3 billion cap.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it.
Patricia Poppe:
Does that answer your question, Jeremy?
Jeremy Tonet:
Yes, that's very helpful. Thank you for that. And then just continuing on, unpacking a bit more of your discussion on ground conditions, can you walk through what you're seeing on the ground and how to think about factors contributing to the uptick in ignition rate as discussed?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, because of the moisture that we received early in the year, the fuel levels are very high. So there's a lot of grasses and then it got really hot. So those excessive fuels got very dry. So the fuel moisture levels are very low. And that means that there is a risk of even, a small spark can quickly move. But let me give a shout out to a couple of things. You know, we talked a little bit in our prepared remarks about our layers of protection post-ignition. And this is really important. We talked about this in New York as well. And I think it's probably a part of our layers of protection that are least understood. We have, first of all, visibility to real-time information about an ignition occurring. And so our AI-enabled cameras can directly alert a first responder. In the past, it took some good citizen noticing there was smoke somewhere and calling someone. If you can imagine, that's a very unpredictable response. Our AI cameras now enable very predictable response. Our Hazard Awareness Center is monitoring those cameras. They see it. They confirm that first responders have been notified. And then our safety infrastructure preparedness teams are out there, protection teams are out there, often on the site nearly as quickly as our first responders. We are our own first responders protecting our assets. So then you combine that with CAL FIRE. And there's a couple stats I'd love to share about CAL FIRE that might surprise you. First of all, kudos to California and California policymakers and our governor for continuing to fund the importance of these first responders. So CAL FIRE's budget has tripled since 2015. It was $1 billion. It is now $3 billion annually. And there were no cuts this year, even though there was budget constraints here in the state. Their staffing is up 80%. We have 12,000 CAL FIRE professional firefighters on the job every day, and we couldn't be more grateful for their great work. And then finally, the CAL FIRE aircraft system, it is the largest civil aerial firefighting fleet in the world. We have 60 aircraft that are armed and ready to go. And, in fact, our CAL FIRE aerial fleet can get anywhere that they serve in under 20 minutes when there's sign of trouble. Listen, California's posture is dramatically improved from previous years. This is a statewide effort. PG&E's posture is dramatically changed, but so has the states and our neighborhoods, our communities. And I couldn't be more thankful for the partnerships across the state for all the good work that's happening. So I just want people to understand that when we say California's safety posture is differentiated, we've got lots of evidence to validate that we have the financial protections with AB 1054, but we have massive physical protections that make a catastrophic wildfire very unlikely.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. Clearly very differentiated today, so that's great to hear. And I just want to kind of come back to a question I've asked in the past and you had commentary on before. And just as far as, you know, national policy is concerned as it relates to wildfires, just wondering if you're seeing anything incremental there as far as more alignment on a potential national solution or at least the attention level getting received right now?
Patricia Poppe:
You know, we're actively involved in those discussions, mainly providing, you know, insight and experience. Our lawyers and the federal affairs teams are very engaged across the utilities to understand what are the benefits of AB 1054, how could something be structured like that federally. And I would say there's definitely lots of interest from the western states. I do think it's a long put from some of the other states who are not as affected by wildfire to want to support a national solution. But we keep making the case that this is just another climate resilience infrastructure standard that needs to be established and where some states have risk of hurricanes or tornadoes or flooding. Those states that have risk of wildfire need to have a preparedness plan. And if there's a federal backstop, I think that really helps serve the smaller states that don't have the paying capacity and the volume and scale that California has that can deal with a problem like this.
Jeremy Tonet:
That makes sense. That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Carolyn Burke:
Hi, Julian.
Patricia Poppe:
Hey, Julian. Welcome back. Nice to hear your voice.
Julian Dumoulin Smith:
Yes, likewise. Absolutely. Sorry I missed you guys last month. Well, look, Patty, let me ask you this. Again, apologies about missing you last month, but you've had a great run. I mean, I was thinking about this in the context of the IC and bringing it all together. And I'm curious as you reflect here on four years of the company or almost four years, I think, how do you think about committing to another contract extension? I'm thinking big picture here. You've got a five-year deal. It's been a great run. You've built out a robust team around you here. How would you just set expectations on a contract extension? I think there's like a one-year possibility here. What have you formally written in there? But just how would you set as we come in on one year left under the contract here? And having resolved a lot of -- well, having resolved or at least on track to resolve a lot of the bigger questions here.
Patricia Poppe:
So, Julian, a couple things. Number one is my honor to lead the people at PG&E. And this has been the greatest challenge of my professional career. And I'm so happy to be part of the team. On the contract front, there's a lot of work to do. I definitely don't think we're done and nor will we be done in a year from now. We'll work through the contract. But what's most important and the thing that I remind my team all the time is that we're building a system. We've got a performance playbook here at PG&E. We're building a bench. We're building a talent machine. So, we don't have to rely on one person that is the linchpin to the whole program. This isn't a charismatic CEO turnaround that when she goes, all of a sudden, the thing falls apart. My job is to build a system that lasts and stands the test of time. And that's what we're up to. And when I go off into the sunset, it's going to be when I know that that performance playbook is solid and my team is equipped and able to execute the continued service to the people of California at the standards that I expect.
Julian Dumoulin Smith:
Got it. Excellent. I'm looking forward to it. And kudos, indeed, on building out a really robust team here. It's been impressive. Carolyn, just to pivot back to some of the earlier conversation here on financing, and I know there's been a lot of commentary here. How do you think about the timeline here on kind of addressing credit improvement? Right now, I think there's been some discussion about the $2 billion of corporate debt reduction getting extended to 2028 versus maybe ‘26 previously. So, how do you think about the timeline here at the same time some of the challenges faced to get the financing that you guys had previously been pushing for? Is there parent debt capacity at this point? How do you think about that against the wider target? And ultimately, is there an ability to increase CapEx in this environment, or is it more about shifting things around prior to addressing the financing backdrop?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes, there's a lot there, Julian. Thank you for the question. So, let me just start with in terms of timeline and improving our overall financial health. I'm very pleased with the progress that we've made. You can just look to our credit ratings, and that's sort of proof in the pudding that we've had a number of upgrades recently. We're just one notch below investment grade at Moody's and on positive outlook there, similar with Fitch, and even S&P upgraded us in the last year. So, we have those continued conversations, and we're continuing to see positive momentum there. We're on target for our capital investment this year. We have SB410 right in front of us now, and that's particularly constructive and helpful for our outlook there. We're on target for our O&M savings of at least 2%, and we're on target for our EPS growth. And particularly important, if you look at our operating cash flow, we are on target to increase from $5 billion in 2023 to $8 billion in 2024. So, all of those are very positive signs in terms of and keeping us on track towards our investment grade and improving our balance sheet. When we think about new capital, I mentioned that earlier in terms of bringing it into the plan. I will say our current financing plan, again, we've built it to be balanced and to have flexibility. So, when we think about that parent debt, which we have a commitment to pay down by the end of 2026 in the amount of $2 billion, that remains at this point in time, but there is flexibility there in terms of both the timing and the amount of that pay down. So, that's how we're thinking about it. And so, that provides us flexibility to bring in new capital into the plan. Again, I'll just repeat, is the dividend and the ramp up of that dividend. Right now, as we've communicated, we see it going slower in the front end and then increasing in the back end. But that is our choice as well. And that's what differentiates us is that we have a choice about how we ramp up that dividend to facilitate additional capital.
Patricia Poppe:
And you know what? I'll add a couple of points, Julian, on what it means to add that additional capital. Let's get concrete here on the SB410. First of all, a great recognition that there is such a thing as beneficial load for the people of California. So, our CPC reflected that. We had about $1 billion of energizations in our current plan. So the incremental $1.3 billion is a perfect example of what Carolyn's talking about. In order to fold that additional $1.3 billion into the plan, there's a couple things that have to happen. Number one, we need to plan the work. We need to be ready to do the work. We need to be able to do that work at the lowest cost. We need to see that simple, affordable model actually materialize. We need to see those O&M savings. We need to be able to see efficient financing pathways. And then we can enable that load growth, which is enabled by this very good CPUC directive. So, given that, you'll see in time we'll build out that work plan first and foremost, the most important step. And then we'll figure out how to then get that financing and make sure this is affordable both for the balance sheet and for customers. And this is just another example. I can't tell you how optimistic I am about the regulatory constructs here in California, the enthusiasm we have from policymakers and legislators about the potential prosperity enablement that PG&E has for the state of California. This is a perfect example of how that's coming to fruition in the numbers.
Julian Dumoulin Smith:
Yes, indeed. I hear you on this, B410. Thank you guys very much. I'll see you soon, all right? Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Carly Davenport :
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. I wanted to just start on the O&M target. I guess how should we think about the path or catalyst there to maybe shift towards the opportunity level that you highlighted at the investor event versus that 2% target? I think, Carolyn, you had referenced three years being a trend. So just curious of sort of getting through this year at or above target could be what you need to see to get comfortable there.
Carolyn Burke:
No, that's exactly right. I think of three years as real proof that, as Patty said, the performance playbook is being executed upon across the company. And as I mentioned in my remarks, we're on target for at least 2% or exceeding the 2% this year. So we're halfway through. We are seeing both smaller initiatives come through with savings and larger initiatives come through with savings. And so I'm very comfortable with where we are at this point in the year, the 2%.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Carly, and I'll just add it. This is Patty. I'll add a little bit of layering on to that. Because how does this work? How do you make it real? We have a waste elimination as our play five in our lean playbook. We've taught thousands of our co-workers about how to see and identify waste. We then have a weekly operating review where we are reviewing people's ideas, a funnel of ideas, thousands of ideas coming through that funnel to determine which ones have the most viability and how do we convert them from an idea into execution. These are bottoms-up ideas coming from our people all across the organization, because we can see that ratio of capital to O&M. They experience the ratio of capital to O&M of 0.8 to 1 in how we do our work, in how work comes to them, in the waiting that they might experience, in inefficient paper processes that could be automated and digitized. Our people are really getting enthusiastic about our waste elimination targets. In fact, our IT department has a waste can award that they present. We're having a good time with this because making your work easier to do, and I think all of us, every one of us at all of our companies, can imagine doing our work more efficiently in some of the laborious processes and steps we have can be eliminated and work can be more fun. You can do higher value work for a lower cost for customers. That's what we're teaching people how to do and systematically teaching it. As Carolyn said, we have some big ticket items, and those are great. We love those as a kind of a priming of the pump, but what we really love is when all of our co-workers are learning to see waste and eliminate it on a daily basis, and that's the culture of performance that we're shaping here. That's what we want to really communicate here on the call.
Carly Davenport:
Very clear. Appreciate that color. And then just one quick follow-up. Apologies if I missed this in response to Jeremy's question earlier, but did you have any thoughts from a timing perspective on when you might look to file incremental requests around SB410 to sort of address the backlog of new connection requests?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, we haven't determined when we would file, but what will drive that is customer demand. And so as we fill out our work plan, now that we have this decision, we're working our work plan for ‘24. We're already building our ‘25 and ‘26 work plan, and where we see we've got deficiencies, where we've got more demand than the decision allows, then that's what we'll file for that incremental funding. What I can tell you is that we see that demand is outstripping that $2.3 billion, which, again, is another signal of the growth here in California, of our potential for growth. We just need to build a work plan so that when we make that filing, we've got the real bottoms-up demand numbers for the commission to make a good decision.
Carly Davenport:
That makes a ton of sense. Great. Thanks so much for the time.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Please go ahead.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Patty, I was wondering if you could comment on, you know, again, on what you're seeing in terms of the path of bill increases. I guess some of the, you know, interveners have been out there talking about double-digit percent change increases over the next several years, namely Cal Advocates. Just what do you think the disconnect is there?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, you know, I think, Greg, that Cal Advocates does not yet understand the simple affordable model. This is new for California. This is new for PG&E. And so we will prove out that we can maintain rate increases below the rate of inflation with the simple affordable model. We have all the key components. That's why we're so excited about the amplification of that simple affordable model with more O&M savings, more efficient financing, more load growth. Being able to demonstrate that for our customers is going to take some time. They're going to have to learn to trust that what we say is what we'll do. And so that's just, I just think it's a matter of time. They're forecasting based on previous experience, not based on what we know that we are doing here at PG&E.
Gregg Orrill:
Got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Anthony Crowdell :
Hey, good morning team. Just, I guess, two quick ones, maybe a segment of PG&E that we kind of forget or we don't talk about enough is the gas system. I'm just wondering, you know, I know you're decoupled, but the throughputs of the gas system year over year, have you seen increases, decreases in the electrification, -- electrification really impacting the throughputs of that system?
Patricia Poppe:
So far, Anthony, again, heavily weather dependent, our throughput, but pretty flat, pretty flat. I wouldn't say we've seen notable decrease in throughput as a result of electrification, though we've seen it in targeted locations, where we make a decision, for example, I do think PG&E is uniquely positioned because of our overlapping gas and electric service areas. So we're really well equipped to answer these questions, Anthony. But where we see a specific case, for example, we have a mobile home program where if we were scheduled to replace the service lines for that mobile home, we've determined that per mobile home it's cheaper to electrify those mobile homes than it is to actually change those gas service lines. And so in those cases, we're doing what we call targeted electrification. We're doing some other projects where we want to start to show that electrification is viable for homes and economic. And so that's where we're really working to prove out those theories. And so I see this gas throughput change probably in the latter half of our 10-year plan versus so much here in the first next five years.
Anthony Crowdell:
And just to follow up, I love the capital to expense ratio. Is that number similar for the gas and electric segments of PG&E or it's, you know, I guess less, -- I'll leave it there?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, they're similar across the enterprise. And, you know, we can get into some of those details and get you some more of those specifics, Anthony, after the call. But, yeah, they're pretty similar enterprise-wise.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.
Ryan Levine :
Good morning. Notice you made progress on the percentage of rate base authorized on slide 10 across ‘24 to 2028. What are the drivers besides SB410 cap spending, particularly for 2027 and 2028 up to the period end?
Patricia Poppe:
It's predominantly, Ryan, SB410, as well as the OGO approval that we received affected in. Go ahead, Carol.
Carolyn Burke:
So it is -- the increase that we saw on that, on the authorized, is all SB410. So we had assumed some of the $2.3 billion in our plan, but we hadn't assumed the full $2.3 billion. So the percentage increase is reflected there. We'll just remind you that there are two other things. OGO is on the docket to be approved on August 1st. So that's another $900 billion. And so that would then further secure or push that percentage up higher. And then we've also filed back in March, our gas AMI application, which is another $500 million. That's not on the docket yet, but that's been filed. So we continue to make progress in terms of things that were kicked out of the GRC. We're making those filings and we're seeing those things come to fruition.
Patricia Poppe:
And just to clarify the OGO. Yes, sorry. The OGO is $900 million.
Carolyn Burke:
Oh, I'm sorry. What did I say?
Ryan Levine:
Okay. So you're assuming the SB410 CapEx continues beyond ‘26. Is that what I'm hearing?
Patricia Poppe:
The rate base continues. Yes, of course.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then in terms of the fire protection index that you had highlighted in a previous analyst day, any sense on what the outlook is for the remaining portion of this year compared to prior years on that internal PG&E Fire Protection Index?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Our FPI, we're showing more days in higher risk conditions, for sure. The R3 and above days are up. Yes. And so, and our forecasts are showing because of the fuel moisture levels, until we get, you know, more moisture in the atmosphere, we're going to continue to see those high risk days. But thankfully we are well positioned and continue to have the necessary layers of protection that both predict and prevent as well as respond. And I'm very proud of the team for the progress made.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then one just clarifying question, Carol, I think you mentioned that next week you're planning to issue the third AB1054 fund issuance? Just wanted to clarify if that was the correct message.
Carolyn Burke:
That's right. We're going to close it next week.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
Our final question comes from Michael Lonegan with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Michael Lonegan :
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. So going back to O&M, you talked about meeting or exceeding the 2% non-fuel reduction this year. I saw your savings year to date is $52 million versus the targeted $200 million, you know, about 25% of your target, you know, halfway through the year. I was just wondering are savings currently behind due to summer conditions this year, or was there a planned acceleration for the second half the whole time? And how much do we expect, you know, in terms of savings in Q3 versus 2.4?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, typically you're going to get, some of those ideas rolling in the beginning of the year and they materialize in the second half of the year. So that's not unusual. We would expect to see that kind of trend.
Carolyn Burke:
And that's just a reminder that O&M is full O&M reduction.
Michael Lonegan:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then you reaffirmed your undergrounding target of 250 miles this year. You know, with this quarter, you installed 46 miles underground and energized 15 miles in the first quarter. I know first quarter is typically low because of snow conditions in some of your territory. But, you know, implying an acceleration and undergrounding the balance of the year, just wondering if summer conditions have presented a risk to the full year target, you know, given a potential diversion of workforce to unplanned work?
Patricia Poppe:
No, not at all. You know, in fact, let me just remind you. Last year we did 364 miles. This year's target is 250. We still have our, our same process improvements are in place. We've completed 61 miles through the end of June, but let me clarify what that means. We've energized 61 miles. The civil work for those 250 miles as well underway. And that's all the, that's the heaviest lifting that has to get done and the energization quickly catches up the mileage in the second half of the year. That's a very similar pattern to, to previous years. And we are right on track.
Michael Lonegan:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks Michael.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Patty for any closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks Brianna. Well, thank you everyone for joining our call. And I just hope you see what we see. Continued progress on a path to differentiated things. Affordable and a growing company. We're delivering for our customers and then in turn for you, our investors. Thanks for tuning in today and please stay safe out there.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation First Quarter 2024 Earnings Release. [Operator Instructions] As a 0reminder, today's call is being recorded.
I will now hand today's call over to Jonathan Arnold, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters.
First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors, which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today's earnings presentation. Presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slide with other relevant information can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We'd also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2024. With that, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report another quarter of solid progress with our core earnings per share for the first quarter coming in at $0.37. We're also reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $1.33 to $1.37, up at least 10% from 2023.
And we're reaffirming our longer-term earnings per share growth of at least 9% each year starting in 2025 and continuing through 2028. In addition, we remain firm in our commitment to no new equity in 2024. We're also pleased to share with you our 5-year financing plan, which Carolyn will discuss in more detail. What I want to emphasize is that our financing plan does not include the proposed sale of a minority interest in Pacific Generation. As you may have seen, we continue to advocate for the Pac Gen sale with the CPUC. We see the minority sale as an efficient financing alternative while offering significant benefits to our customers, and it would further strengthen our plan. However, as you can come to expect, we plan conservatively, so the sale is not currently in the plan. The key takeaway is that we are comfortable reaffirming our earnings guidance and our $62 billion capital plan with or without Pac Gen. Our plan also enables us to grow our dividend payout to a level closer to our regulated utility peers with $2.5 billion included in the plan through 2028. Consistent with our conservative approach, the plan assumes up to $3 billion of equity starting in 2025, likely through a routine utility ATM program. Moving to Slide 4. What I want to impress upon you is this. California and PG&E specifically have a favorable risk profile given significant changes made following catastrophic wildfire events we experienced in our state back in 2017 and 2018. California did the hard work to address challenges to the investor-owned utility model, policymakers passed key legislation. Assembly Bill 1054 provides access to liquidity through a wildfire insurance fund with $21 billion of claims paying capacity. Cost recovery under the presumption that the utility's conduct is reasonable with a valid safety certificate, and a cap on shareholder exposure if a portion of our requested cost recovery were to be disallowed by the CPUC. These protections afforded to PG&E under AB 1054 are further complemented by our self-insurance model, which limits shareholder exposure to a deductible of only $50 million, paired with our proven progress mitigating wildfire risk, and significant actions the state has taken to strengthen fire prevention and response in our communities. California stands out as a model for all states that have wildfire risk, and PG&E's operating system delivers the physical risk reduction, which further differentiates our story. In fact, we've reduced our wildfire risk by 94% and are working every day to reduce that further. As one additional proof point of our wildfire risk mitigation efforts, I'll remind you here on Slide 5 that in 2023, we reduced ignitions by 68% compared to 2017. And through the end of the first quarter of 2024 on a rolling 12-month basis, our weather-normalized ignition rate remains at 0.93, more than a 70% reduction from 2017. As well as our differentiated wildfire risk reduction framework, we also have a differentiated approach for how we intend to grow our customer capital investments while keeping bills affordable. Here on Slide 6 is our simple affordable model. Since its introduction, we have exceeded our annual nonfuel O&M reduction target every year, reducing O&M by 3% in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023. This is new for PG&E, and it will take repeated performance for our customers and policymakers to believe in the benefit of our new capability and what it delivers for customers. As I like to say, performance is power. When we perform, when we keep our commitments, we have the power to influence the perception of PG&E with our customers and investors. We are differentiated in our potential and our system to deliver on these annual nonfuel O&M savings. Time will prove this out. One exciting element of our simple affordable model is the opportunity for load growth in our service area. Our electric load growth opportunities are not just electric vehicles and data centers but an eventual and necessary decarbonization of our entire economy with clean electricity as the primary energy of the future. PG&E is vital to our state's ambition and the need to heal our planet. 1% to 3% load growth per year in the near term with upwards of 70% load growth over the next 20 years will be required as California moves to carbon neutrality by 2045. California is not afraid to set ambitious targets and has proven repeatedly that we will innovate our way to achieving them. Cost savings and loan growth, coupled with continued efficient financing options are how we can execute on our commitment here on Slide 7 to control average annual bill increases to 2% to 4%. We appreciate that near-term build pressure due to consolidated years of GRC recovery and catch-up recovery of wildfire mitigation expense is difficult for some of our customers, and I look forward to the day when we can announce that customers' prices are coming down. At the same time, we stand by the need for the near-term increase as this GRC is funding critical work, which is making our customers and communities safer than ever before. Here on Slide 8 are just a few examples of important safety and reliability work funded by our GRC. Installation of more than 10,000 devices for situational awareness, system hardening, automation and reliability, repair or replacement of over 175,000 units on our distribution lines. Inspection of $2 million and replacement of over 60,000 poles, replacement of more than 160 miles of gas distribution pipeline and under-grounding of 1,230 miles of distribution lines in high fire risk areas. As we perform this work, it is our responsibility to ensure every customer dollar is put to maximum use, which brings us to my story of the month here on Slide 9. You may recall that last year, I shared a story on work bundling. Specifically, I highlighted an example of cross-functional bundling where we planned and executed 12 jobs under 1 planned outage. I also left you with a little teaser saying, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Well, my coworkers are now rolling out our next generation of work bundling with something we refer to as mega bundles. Using breakthrough thinking and our lean operating system, we've identified over 9,000 individual scopes of work and converted them into 20 bundled projects. With mega bundling, we're looking at an entire circuit as 1 project. In the past, we plan and execute work at a granular level. For example, we roll a truck to replace a single pole or just 1 switch. When we look at an entire circuit, we may find 100 poles that need to be replaced. In Stockton, for example, we have 1 circuit with nearly 1,000 poles that will be completed this year. Bundling these pulls into a single project improve safety, the customer experience, quality, cost, delivery and coworker morale. Imagine assembly line style production, the potential for 1 permit for hundreds of poles rather than hundreds of separate permits as it is today, seeking multiple pole holes per day in a specific region, resulting in significant fuel savings and less hazardous drive time for our coworkers. Framing hundreds of poles at a time using manufacturing style production off-site rather than one by one on-site. And customer outreach to entire neighborhoods, reduced outages and lane closures versus one job at a time. This approach also allows us to negotiate better contract pricing and reduced overhead costs. Overall, with mega bundling, we expect to see cost savings of at least 20% compared to historical all-in cost, which will result in at least $20 million of our customers' dollars saved just this year, freeing up resources to do even more safety and reliability work for our customers. When I joined PG&E, you may have heard one of my early observations. We're very good at engineering equipment, but we're not very good at engineering our work. Well, that's changing, thanks to our performance playbook. We are delivering improved performance every day, which serves both customers and investors. With that, let me turn it over to Carolyn to walk you through the financial details.
Carolyn Burke:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'm looking forward to covering 4 topics with you
Starting here with our first quarter walk on Slide 10. Our first quarter core earnings of $0.37 are up $0.08 over the first quarter last year. Remember, that our general rate case was approved in the fourth quarter when we booked the catch-up revenues for all of 2023. Adjusting first quarter 2023 for the GRC timing, our first quarter results are up $0.05 year-over-year. This improvement is primarily driven by an increase in customer capital investment. And our CPUC rate base now provides an equity return of 10.7% as approved through the adjusted cost of capital mechanism advice letter. As a reminder, we said that we were not counting on this increase to meet our earnings guidance but it does give us more flexibility to redeploy resources for the benefit of our customers. Other drivers include nonfuel O&M savings of $0.01 offset by $0.02 reinvested back into the business to fund more work, such as increased transmission system inspections and electric acid mapping. Also this quarter, we revised our estimate for the duration of the wildfire fund established under AB 1054. Based on all the data available to us, including the progress we've achieved in reducing physical wildfire risk on our system, the fund will provide coverage for 20 years, that's up from our previous estimate of 15 years. Another example of how AB 1054 is working as intended. Turning to Slide 11. There are no changes to our CapEx or rate base guidance. Our plan includes $62 billion of customer investment over the next 5 years, and we still have at least another $5 billion to pull into the plan once we make it affordable for both our customers and our balance sheet. And please keep in mind that in 2024, 93% of our rate base has already been authorized with 90% authorized out in 2026. This is higher than most utilities given our 4-year GRC cycle, and we continue to pursue cost recovery to increase that percentage. As an example, we filed an application for our gas metering replacement program last month, seeking revenue requirement to support nearly $500 million in capital additions from 2023 through 2026. That's in addition to the request filed late last year for revenue requirement to support the capital costs associated with moving our headquarters from San Francisco to Oakland. Here on Slide 12. Again, no changes from what we shared with you on our year-end call. Our operating cash flow grew substantially from $5 billion last year to $8 billion this year. This reflects collection of both our 2023 GRC revenue increase and 2024 GRC revenues as well as the catch-up recoveries of our prior work, including interim rate relief. Our operating cash flow continues to rise through the plan period, reflecting our growing capital investment on behalf of customers. In total, we're forecasting $50 billion in operating cash flow from 2024 through 2028. Turning to Slide 13. With $50 billion as the starting point, we are pleased to share our 5-year financing plan to support our $62 billion of capital investment. As Patti mentioned, our financing plan does not include the proposed Pac Gen minority interest sale, which would further strengthen what we're showing here. Now for the highlights. First, we plan to grow our dividend over the next 5 years. Given our commitment to prioritize customer capital investment in the near term, we anticipate growing the dividend more slowly at the front end of our plan, with the payout stepping up more quickly in the later years. In the meantime, we are benefiting from nearly $2.5 billion of annual retained earnings this year, and we consider this a valuable source of internally generated equity. Second, we forecast incremental utility long-term debt needs of approximately $14 billion. Third, we continue with our plan to reduce our parent company debt by $2 billion by the end of 2026. finally, we are contemplating [indiscernible] over the 2025 to 2028 planning horizon, likely through a routine ATM program. This supports our $62 billion of customer capital investment and our consistent earnings guidance of at least 10% this year and at least 9% each and every year through 2028. Importantly, our commitment to no new equity in 2024 remains firm. In developing this plan, we had several key objectives in mind for our customers and our investors. One, funding the significant safety and reliability investments our customers deserve; two, keeping customer bills affordable, and we gain 2% to 4% assumed inflation; three, delivering on our premium earnings per share growth; and four, achieving solid investment-grade ratings. We want to reinforce that final objective here on Slide 14. We're targeting investment-grade ratings at the corporate level. And since 2020, our ratings have improved steadily with all 3 agencies. We're now just 1 notch below investment grade at both Moody's and Fitch and on positive outlook at both. The recent improvements in our ratings are a function of demonstrated financial and operational progress since 2020, especially mitigating wildfire risk. Our 5-year financing plan is designed to build on the progress we've made in all of these areas and reflect our laser focus on improving the balance sheet. And as a reminder, our operating cash flow increased $3 billion from $5 billion in 2023 to $8 billion in 2024 with continued growth through the planned period. This growing operating cash flow supports including credit metrics, including our mid-teens goal for FFO to debt. We also generate new investment dollars every year as we execute on our simple, affordable model, as shown here on Slide 15. I'll remind you that in 2023, we realized net cost gains of just over $500 million. mega bundling, which Patti discussed is just one more example of the wealth of opportunities we see here at PG&E to deliver more for our customers while keeping build growth in the 2% to 4% range. Moving to Slide 16. Our progress working with policymakers continues. Just during March, we saw a number of constructive regulatory decisions, which together, accelerate well over $1 billion of cash flow. On March 7, the CPUC approved interim rate release in the amount of $516 million, while our wildfire and gas safety cost application moves through the typical process. Next, on March 15, the commission's Executive Director approved our request to delay until 2025, $650 million of contributions to the customer credit trust established as part of our great neutral securitization. And finally, on March 20, the commission issued a proposed decision denying the petition for modification filed by joint rate payers to suspend the formulae cost of capital adjustment mechanism for 2024. The proposed decision finds that the mechanism operated as intended, it also offers strong regulatory support for our return on equity. In terms of Pac Gen, we continue to believe this transaction is highly beneficial for customers. It has clear potential to lower bill while accelerating our return to investment grade and bringing them a partner to invest in these assets, which are key to California's energy transition. We'd appreciate the commission wanted to take some time from additional time before making a final decision. Looking ahead, as you know, the California legislature has passed a series of constructive measures, which have the potential to add upside to our plan and important benefits to our customers. This legislation, including Senate Bill 410 and 84 continue to move through the regulatory implementation stages. Regarding SB 410, our proposed decision in Phase 2 of our general rate case, which we're now calling the capacity phase is scheduled for later this quarter. This would authorize CapEx to support energization incremental to what was approved in our GRC. Regarding SB 884 on March 7, the commission approved of resolution establishing CPUC guidelines for approving under-grounding plans. We remain prepared to file our 10-year under-grounding plans later this year when our safety regulator is ready to accept our submission.
I'll end here on Slide 17, with a reminder of our value proposition:
9.5% great base growth through 2028, at least $5 billion of incremental investment opportunities, at least 10% core earnings per share growth in 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 through 2028. Growing momentum around credit ratings with 2 agencies, Moody's and Fitch now just 1 notch below investment grade and with positive outlook and the continued consistent execution of our simple affordable model, delivering both for our customers and you, our investors.
With that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Carolyn. As I reflect on the progress we've made over the last 3 years, just imagine our performance in the next [indiscernible]. With the wildfire-related legal and regulatory protections in place and with our physical and financial risk mitigation progress, well understood and managed, we look to the energy transition in front of us and see nothing but opportunities.
The future California energy system calls on PG&E to deliver the clean electricity of the future. Growth will fuel the simple affordable model and California's economy. We can't wait to share more with you at the New York Stock Exchange for our investor update on June 12. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Patti just running off on the new financing disclosures. Can we maybe elaborate sort of on the timing of equity needs and the levers to manage the equity needs over time. The $2.5 billion dividend use of funds implies kind of a big step up from the current levels. So is the timing and the amount of the dividend, kind of a lever to minimize dilutive equity? And do you assume -- have an assumption around getting to IG status at the parent as a potential headroom for the equity needs?
Patricia Poppe:
Sure, Carolyn. So I'm going to take that. So thanks for the question. There's a lot to unpack there. So let me just maybe start from the fact that we intentionally built a very reasonable -- potentially built our plan to assume a reasonable balance of utility debt, parent company debt, dividend growth and a routine equity financing.
Importantly, the plan is consistent with our earnings guidance of 10% in 2024 and at least 90% in 2025 to 2028. We -- as we look at the plan, a couple of things, we will remain focused on accessing the most efficient finance decisions. The plan does introduce a routine ATM program. So in routine, I think that what you can expect from that is sort of a ratable program over the course of our plan. That's the assumption. And then on the dividend, we did give you a number of $2.5 billion. And what we said to expect from the dividends is that we will grow it more slowly in the front end of our 5-year plan and then it will ramp up over the course of the 5-year plan. So I think that's how we're thinking about the balance between all of those elements of the plan. On IG status, we continue to make good progress there and we can talk about that in detail in a bit. But yes, the plan assumes that we continue to make progress on our credit metrics.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. And then just maybe just top level, and I appreciate that, Carolyn. Patti, on just -- do you have any sort of thoughts on kind of the [ Buffet ] letter on sector wildfire risk, I mean, obviously caused a bit of a stir, painted everyone kind of in that same brush. It hasn't arguably helped valuation levels for a lot of the West Coast Pacific Northwest names. I guess it's certainly -- just I guess any thoughts there on how we should be thinking about that because it's a question that we get a lot in [ bounce ]?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. Shar, thank you for asking that question because frankly, I think [ Buffet ] got it wrong in California. California has done the hard work to mitigate both physical and financial risk. When I think about the physical risk reductions and the wildfire mitigation that we have in place, we reduced 94% of our wildfire risk, and that remaining 6% is protected with all of our situational awareness and the investments that the state has made and CAL FIRE's ability to respond. Our weather stations that have AI-enabled cameras that are often the first notification, the first responders. We used to have to wait for a citizen to notice smoke and call it in.
Now we have technology that is the backbone of our wildfire mitigations and the incredible work that we're doing to rebuild our infrastructure to the new climate standards and to the new extreme weather is something we're very proud of. But then you combine that with AB 1054 in the financial risk mitigation. There is -- we -- investors are able to invest in California. The wildfire risk exposure for an investor is restricted to the $50 million deductible of our self-insurance. $50 million deductible of our self-insurance. It's important for investors to know that. And the wildfire fund with $21 billion of claim capacity, we just revealed today that we've extended the life of that fund for 20 years, up from 15 because AB 1054 and our physical risk reduction is working. So I can just share that, Shar, I think California is very much investable. And I think PG&E specifically has put us in a position, the citizens of California have never been safer from wildfire risk. And I think that investors will soon come to believe that and definitely should not be swayed by a broad brush about all Western states. California is notably unique.
Shahriar Pourreza:
No for many of us, that's obvious, but for a lot of us, it may not be so. Thank you so much for the clarity.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
On the -- just a clarification on the dividend comment. When you talk about slower kind of early and then ramping up, is that kind of more on a cents per share basis or a percent basis? Because obviously, the dividend's low -- a little bit of increased big percent. So just want to see if you can clarify that?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. I mean I think our intent is to have a competitive payout ratio over the long term, right? And our financing here with the 5 years is that we intend to make meaningful progress towards having that competitive payout ratio. So when we think about it, you're right, yes, we're going to start slower.
So we think about it in terms of percent or we really haven't revealed that or talked about that publicly. But I think the key is that we're going to go slower in current half of our 5-year plan because we're, again, committed to prioritizing customer capital investment. And then on the back end, it will go -- it will ramp up more quickly.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. And Steve, when I think about that dividend payout, combined with our sector-leading EPS growth, we feel that's a pretty compelling investment thesis. So we look forward to layering that on top of our -- already forecast at least 9% EPS growth in '25 through '28.
Steven Fleishman:
Got it. And then a question on the FFO to debt in the mid-teens. With that operating cash flow improving, is it fair to say maybe mid-teens can be kind of a wide range? Is it fair to say you're kind of improving within the mid-teens ratio over the period? Yes.
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. I think that's fair. We've not changed our FFO. We haven't changed any of our guidance for 2024. So we remain on target with our capital investment and our lean O&M savings and our EPS growth and the FFO to debt. And as our operating cash flow increases and again, it increases $3 billion just from '23 to '24, but then you see it continuing to increase, we would -- this is what's driving our balance sheet health and improving our credit metrics over the plan period.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then one last question, just a topic to your data centers. And I know Santa Clara is one of the biggest current data center area. So just -- I think when you came out with your initial plan for low growth, data centers were probably not as front and center of that. But Patti, I'm curious just how you're thinking about that now? And just are you in a position to be able to kind of get them served, so to speak, with power on a timely basis?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Great question, Steve. And I'll share a couple of thoughts. One, I think we will definitely be one of the big ancillary winners of the demand growth for data centers as well as electric transportation given our state policies and electrification of the state, the decarbonizing of our energy system.
But I do want to just tell a quick story. I was -- I had a visit to our [indiscernible], which is one of the critical substations, transmission substations across the nation. And we invited some customers to come. And when I got there, I was pleasantly surprised to see AWS, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Equinix, Cisco, Western Digital Semiconductors, Tesla, all in attendance. These are our customers that we serve who want us to serve more. And they were very clear that they would build where if we can provide. And so we're working on a plan that's going to be a big part of what we share in New York at Investor Day. We really want people to come out and see what the future looks like. I'm so proud of this team here at PG&E, who has been able to mitigate the near-term risk of physical and financial risk of wildfire so that we can now play our rightful position in the industry and in the nation as a leader in the clean energy transition. Our state has ambitious goals. We're going to be the energy provider to fuel those ambitious goals and data centers are a piece of the puzzle. I'll also just add 1 recent publication from CISO shared. CISO forecast an additional 120 gigawatts of clean electricity to be added in the next 20 years in California. That's 120 gigawatts on top of our 67 gigawatt system today. That is a 2x increase. And we are going to be the energy provider here in California, the transmission load that comes with that, we're in a position to win on the clean energy transition and so is California. And one last -- this data point I'll share with you, Steve. We forecast that as we decarbonize the economy and reduce carbon emissions by 70%, we forecast a reduction in household energy spend. In the neighborhood of 20% to 30%, household energy spend reduction as we decarbonize the economy because electricity is a more efficient fuel than gasoline. That is a win for citizens. That's a win for the planet. And certainly, that's a win for PCG investors.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella:
Appreciate everything on the financing plan. I guess, can you talk about how this kind of takes into account your views on the authorized cap structure and the operating company, just knowing that you have that waiver through '25. Do you kind of continue to assume that you get back to that over time? Or how should we kind of think about that?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Nick, thanks for the question. So what's important about our plan is that it solves for 2 things. First is the $62 billion of customer capital but it also does solve for meeting our regulatory and balance sheet targets, including the 52% utility equity ratio by mid-2025, which is when the waiver expires. Does that answer your question? I think so.
Nicholas Campanella:
It does. I appreciate that. And then I guess just on [indiscernible]. I think the liability is $1.6 billion, and I'm just thinking about your prepared remarks about AB 1054 framework. And maybe you can kind of walk us through the process of when you file up the administrator or the time line [indiscernible], if any? And how is your going to be thinking about funds potential against that liability?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. So just to update you on the numbers. So at the end of Q1, we have paid out cash settlements of about $870 million we cannot tap the earthquake fund until we've actually cash settled $1 billion in settlements. We expect to hit that $1 billion over the course of the summer. And we've been having continued conversations with the earthquake authority to ensure that, that is as smooth of a claims process as possible.
Yes, it's $1.6 billion. A couple of things other to note is that, one, the statute of limitations on Dixie runs out in October. And the earthquake authority actually booked a $600 million loss on their books for payout. And so it's just -- it's very -- we've been working very closely with them. I think we're expecting a very smooth process at this point in time. And I think I answered all your questions there, so I'd leave anything else.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport:
Maybe just on Pac Gen. Can you just refresh us on kind of the next steps to watch there? Obviously, you mentioned it got held at the last meeting until potentially May 9. So just what should we be watching on that front?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. At this point, as you know, we did submit comments and we requested a supplemental phase. And as you stated, the PD is held until the -- at least the May 9 CPUC meeting. We don't know yet whether they're going to agree to our request to come forward with more information, including the identity of our minority partner. But we appreciate that the CPUC is taking more time to finalize this decision.
And we're going to use that time, obviously, to advocate because we continue to believe that Pac Gen is highly beneficial for our customers. It brings affordability to the bills. It helps accelerate our return to investment grade. And importantly, it brings in a partner who's going to help us grow these assets that are critical to California's energy transition. So at this point in time, we're -- we believe Pac Gen is a good transaction. We're going to continue to advocate for it, and we are waiting for the final decision or an approval to do the second phase. I will just add that we provided our financing plan. Again, I'll note that it was without Pac Gen. But with Pac Gen, that current plan would certainly be strengthened.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. I appreciate that color. And then maybe just on the balance sheet, thanks for the commentary before on the FFO to debt levels. Just curious what your latest views are on sort of the milestones or the time line to get back to the IG rating?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. Both -- thanks for the question. We're very proud of the progress that we've made there and rating agencies, both Moody's and Fitch have us just 1 notch below investment grade and have us on positive outlook. Both have indicated that they're continuing to look at the way we -- our wildfire risk mitigation. And as Patti has noted that we continue to make really good progress there. And so we would expect another action by both of them over the course of the next 12 months.
And I think they're both looking at maybe another season and our financial metrics continue to improve, and they're continuing to watch those as well.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to come back to the financing plan a little bit more, if I could, parsing through there. And just want to make sure I understood things right, think about the right way. If I think about the holdco debt, our understanding is it's more of a commitment to pay down as opposed to an obligation, which would seem to imply some flexibility there. And if that is the case, how do you weigh that versus, I guess, equity dilution or even capital deployment pace? Just wondering how this all kind of mixed together. It seems like that could be a lever to reduce [indiscernible] there, Pac Gen doesn't materialize as hoped.
Patricia Poppe:
Again, the plan assumes that does not include Pac Gen. Pac Gen would only strengthen the plan. That's number one. Number two, the plan does include paying down $2 billion of parent debt by the end of 2026. And so again, we are managing a couple of things in this plan. As you said, our capital investments. We have more capital than needs on the system than our plan of $62 billion.
We are managing the equity -- the utility equity ratio of 52%. So -- but what's really important as we look at equity, I just -- again, we'll say that we will always look to access the most efficient financing alternatives, and we'll be very mindful of market conditions. And so I think those are the key points to be mindful about. Does that answer your question?
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Yes, just curious if I had the understanding of the holdco debt paydown being a commitment, not an obligation.
Patricia Poppe:
P That's right. It's a commitment. We're -- and as we said, we're very focused on our balance sheet health and reaching investment-grade status.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful there. And then maybe just kind of pivoting here, given continued national attention wildfires and everything that's happened as discussed on the call, could you talk to PCG's kind of leadership role in the industry engagement with peers to socialize best practices? Clearly, PCG has really advanced in this mitigation and wondering how you think about your role within the industry at this point?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Jeremy, thanks for asking the question. We feel compelled to play our part. We've learned a lot through some tough times. And so it would be a shame if we didn't share those learnings with others, just like other energy and utility providers have shared with us, and we have learned from them. So we do feel that we can play an important role nationally.
I do think California can serve as an important model for how perhaps a regional or national solution might be able to be implemented. California has scale on its side so we can have a regulatory and financial protection that goes with our physical protections. But at some of our smaller states might benefit from a national solution. And we certainly will have a voice in that. I'm thankful for EEI as a good platform where we work together as an industry. It's one of the things I love about this industry that we share lessons with one another. We've been spending time together in the recent months, learning from each other and sharing best practices. And so we will continue to do that, and I do believe that PG&E and I intend to personally work hard to make sure that the nation learns the lessons that we've learned. We've taken a stand here at PG&E that catastrophic wildfire shall stop. And when we took that stance, some people thought we were a little overzealous, but I see that stand coming to life every day. And we didn't say in California or we didn't say California -- or catastrophic wildfire caused by PG&E's equipment, we think catastrophic wildfire shall stop, just like the nation learned to mitigate risk of earthquake and hurricanes, we can learn to mitigate the effects of drought that cause wildfire conditions. And so we certainly will be active nationally to help others know. And I'm just gratified by the people of California who have done the hard work to put in the mitigations that exist today here as we speak, that we don't have to wait for those mitigations to be in place. They exist here in California today, and they serve as a blueprint for the nation.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And just want to go a little bit more with that. I guess, on the national level, how do you think about the potential for some national policy here? Conversations really starting, moving in earnest or how do you think about the possibility of that over time?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. I think there is a possibility. I think one of the things we lack at the national level is a national safety regulator for wildfire. Like we have FEMSA on the gas pipeline. FEMSA did a great job of bringing together all the parties and establishing safe practices that have then been implemented nationwide that regulators can look to and know that their utilities are not gold plating, but their utilities are doing the recommended safety standards.
We need the same thing on the electric side. So I do think that's something that we're having a lot of conversation about who is that appropriate safety regulator and how do we establish standards because right now, plaintiff's attorneys are setting the standards and they use whatever the highest standard that someone else did, and that might not be the appropriate standard in certain states. And so we want to make sure that the safety standards are clear, and then some sort of national fund makes a lot of sense to us that mirrors the California fund that exists today.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Gregg Orrill with UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
Just maybe a clarification, please, on the equity guidance of sort of up to $3 billion. What would change that? Or should we just think about the $3 billion? And then is there -- should we also sort of assume that the FFO to debt metrics continue to show improvement through the plan? Or is there a plateauing there?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. I think let me just take the second one first, and then we can go back. I think on the FFO to debt, as we mentioned answering Steve's question. So yes, so our FFO to debt does is one, we -- one we're hitting our target for this year. And two, as you look at our operating cash flow, that's where I really draw your attention to. You can see that our operating cash flow continues to improve throughout the 5-year plan. And our FFO to debt is really improving across the plan as our operating cash flow improves.
So you can see that. Now does it plateau? We haven't given you that information at this point in time. No, the $3 billion in equity is what's in our plan. That is the amount. And how you should think about that, as we've said, is that we will be very mindful of market conditions, and we will always be looking to access the most efficient financing alternatives available to us. And I think that's the bottom line. Is there any other question on that?
Steven Fleishman:
No. Understood. Got it.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
In terms of cost-cutting initiatives, how much visibility do you have in achieving your goals? I know you've been making a lot of progress there, but trying to get a sense of how many quarters or years out you have line of sight to achieving these [indiscernible] goals?
Patricia Poppe:
Ryan, this is my favorite question. Thank you for asking it. We -- I swear, we have unlimited line of sight for places where we can continue to do more for customers at a lower unit cost. And I have the most gratifying visit this week to a place in Dublin, California, where we say we're reinventing inspections, where the team was completely data-driven and focused on how can we do the right inspections that predict the right failures and do the right repairs at a lower cost using technology and process design.
And it was just unbelievable how fast this team is learning to embrace our lean operating system and our performance playbook our safety management system, combined with our lean operating place and our breakthrough thinking is unlocking extraordinary ideas from this team. And I am so proud of what I see them doing and I can see that we are just getting started. I have a lot of experience in this area, and it has long been my experience that no process is ever finished. That we will always find ways to improve what we do, do it smarter, do it for less, save customers' money while we're improving the service we deliver to them. And we are just unlocking that potential. We are in the first inning of unlocking that potential here at PG&E, and it has the opportunity to provide benefits for customers for decades to come.
Ryan Levine:
Great. And then one on financing to the extent you're able to comment. So with the stated intention, correct me if I'm not hearing this correctly around a programmatic ATM starting in '25. To the extent that Pac Gen were to be monetized in some way or form. Would that -- is that viewed to be direct offset to equity? Or are there other considerations that we should take in mind?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes, I wouldn't necessarily assume that. I think, one, a Pac Gen approval certainly strengthens the plan. And so it's better for our balance sheet, and it's better for our customers. It's going to allow us to consider a number of different elements in the current plan, but particularly how much customer work we get done, because as we've said, we have more customer work than the $62 billion.
And we'll also consider our debt financing assumptions. I think what's important, again, I go back to is that we will always look at the most efficient financing, and we'll be mindful of market conditions.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
I was just -- maybe a bit of a follow-on that. As I'm thinking about the $5 billion in potential upside CapEx opportunities, how would you think about financing that in terms of potential equity needs incremental to the plan?
Patricia Poppe:
We're -- on the $5 billion. So thanks for the question. So what's important for us on the $5 billion is that it is affordable. It needs to be affordable both for our customers and fitting within our target of bill increases in line with inflation of the 2% to 4%. And then it needs to be affordable on our balance sheet.
And so I go back to -- our plan has a reasonable balance of the debt, both utility debt and company debt and dividend and routine equity. And as we implement that plan, we will again be very mindful of market conditions and look for the most efficient financing for that $5 billion. And David, I'll just add that, keep in mind, things like, for example, a 1% reduction in O&M is $100 million of additional -- or additional cash flow. And so as we think about we continue to do more for less, that frees up cash flow to do more work and pull in additional capital and fund it through efficiencies through some of our more efficient financing. One of the things we wanted everyone to really hear today is this financing plan is a conservative plan. It's a good plan. And it can only improve from here. So this is a good starting point, a good baseline, and we're excited to share it with you today.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Yes, that's helpful. I was wondering, as we think about the load growth outlook and the potential for data centers, could you speak to maybe just how long it takes to connect a new large load to the system? And any initiatives that you're involved in that could reduce that time and increase the efficiency there?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, it's a great question. I will say that I think there's a national challenge with the supply chain and being able to access some of the necessary equipment to build out that capacity as well as timely cash recoveries and cost recoveries for that investment.
We've got the cost recoveries improvement here in flight in California with SB 410. We're looking forward to that process coming so that we can have certainty about the cash flow recovery associated with building out that new capacity. So that's been a delay for -- certainly for some people and certainly for us. But I'd say the biggest delay right now is the supply chain. And so we're doing something called a cluster study where we have brought together, that was one of the reasons we had all those customers at the [indiscernible] with us the other day is we're doing a study with them collectively so that they can understand there, instead of one project at a time, looking at a suite of these projects, really understanding their growth forecast, and we can get way further ahead in the planning for their ability -- their plans to build out and our ability to serve that load. So we're very excited about the transparency that's being created here with our big customers, so that we can better build out their large load demands.
Operator:
At this time, there are no further questions. I will now hand today's call over to Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Tamica for being our operator today. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We're glad that you were with us. We hope that you appreciate the information that we shared.
We're excited to see you in June 12 at the New York Stock Exchange. We are going to be sharing our latest wildfire mitigation technologies. You're going to meet some of our brightest and best who are closest to the improvements that have been made here, so you can have more and more confidence, both in the physical and the financial risks that have been mitigated here in California. And because of that success that we've experienced in the physical and financial risk mitigation of wildfire, we have the privilege of looking forward and planning for the energy system of the future for California. We are proud to be the providers of that clean energy and clean electricity that will fuel the decarbonizing of our nation and our state. And we are proud to serve the role and answer the call from California, and we'll be able to share more with you about our plans in that light and what the growth of PG&E looks like going forward. So we look forward to seeing you in New York. Thanks so much for tuning in today. Everybody, please be safe out there.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the PG&E Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Call. I would now like to welcome Jonathan Arnold, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin the call. Jonathan, over to you.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today’s discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors, which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s earnings presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides along with other relevant information can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our Annual Report on Form 10-Q for the year ended December 31, 2023. With that, it’s my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. This morning we reported full year core earnings of $1.23 delivering at the high end of our annual guidance range. This result represents growth of 12% over our 2022 results of $1.10. In the fourth quarter we recognized the full year benefit of our 2023 general rate case as expected. I’m also pleased to announce that we exceeded our 2% annual nonfuel O&M savings target for the second consecutive year with savings coming in at 5.5% and pushing our EPS to the high end of the range. Because these savings were predominantly generated by reducing waste and improving service, they benefit customers today and benefit investors for years to come. Looking to 2024, we are reaffirming our at least 10% growth target which is now based on our actual 2023 results of $1.23. This results in an increase to our 2024 core earnings guidance range with a new higher midpoint of $1.35 versus our previous guidance of $1.33. We also reaffirm our commitment to at least 9% core EPS growth for both 2025 and 2026, re-based off our actual 2023 results in our new 2024 range. In addition, I'm pleased to share that we're extending our core EPS growth guidance of at least 9% for an additional two years through 2028. Our needed customer investment leads to strong rate-based growth, which continues to be the primary driver of our future earnings growth. We're providing you with updated five-year forecasts for both rate-based and CapEx in today's slides. These numbers now extend to 2028 and show a consistent compound annual growth rate of 9.5% using the new base year of 2023. Finally, we reaffirm our commitment to no new equity in 2024 and remain committed to pursuing the most efficient forms of financing available for 2025 and beyond, which Carolyn will discuss in her remarks. On slide four, we've added 2023 actuals illustrating our high end of guidance results and the rebasing of forward year growth rates now through 2028. This is our simple, affordable model in action. The list in 2023 reflects our 5.5% non-fuel O&M reduction well above our 2% plan. Slide five is a reminder of the key elements of our simple, affordable model, which allows us to continue growing customer capital investment at 9% or more while containing customer bill increases at or below assumed inflation in the 2% to 4% range. Key enablers in the model are ongoing annual non-fuel O&M reductions of 2%, efficient financing, and electric low growth in the 1% to 3% range. The proof is in the numbers. The simple, affordable model works. You first saw slide six during our November business update call. This version has been updated for a few additional known items, such as the 2024 cost of capital trigger. Our new ROE of 10.7% took effect on January 1st this year, with collections beginning this month in gas rates and next month for electric. Delivering on this projected 2% to 4% bill growth trajectory is an essential element of the PG&E plan, and one which will be important for building trust with our customers over the long run. For our average gas and electric residential customer, average monthly bill increases are limited to the 2% to 4% range from 2023 through 2026. I wanted to be clear that this includes the step up in 2024 as we implement the GRC and other deferred cost recoveries. Our plan shows average bills stepping down, beginning later this year and further in both 2025 and 2026, keeping the average annual increase in the lower half of the 2% to 4% range as catch-up recoveries roll off. Two of the larger items are around $1 billion of 2022 WMCE interim rate relief, which comes off bills in mid-2024, and the 24-month collection of our first-year GRC revenues, which come off at the start of 2026. Let me say that again. Based on what we know today, our bills will rise at the lower half of the range, around 2.5% per year on average for the duration of this rate case from 2023 through 2026. Let's shift gears to the significant progress the team has made on risk mitigation. Slide seven updates our 2023 admission data for the full year. Total CPUC reportable admissions came in at 65% for 2023, down 68% from the 2017 baseline, and 29% down from 2022. On the right side of the slide, we're showing our weather normalized ignition rate, which is a metric from our wildfire mitigation plan. This year's number of 0.93 was a reduction of 71% from 2017, and our lowest annual number since we began calculating this metric. The metric demonstrates that we continue to drive down wildfire risk in 2023, even after adjusting for fewer circuit mile days under our three or higher conditions when the risks of catastrophic wildfire are highest. While we're extremely pleased with these results, our team certainly isn't stopping here. We see further opportunities to drive overall wildfire risk reduction beyond the 94% achieved in 2023, as we continue with additional system hardening and deployment of new technologies. In addition to the physical risk reduction, financial risks are also lower, including key protections under AB 1054, which were reaffirmed with the issuance of our annual safety certificate last month. Looking forward, here on Slide eight, we want to take a moment to highlight how we see PG&E offering investors a truly differentiated, high-quality utility growth story. This starts with premium rate-based growth and industry leading 9.5%. What sets us apart is our commitment to make this investment affordable for our customers. The key enabler is our ability to drive consistent non-fuel O&M savings as we deploy our lane operating system in a utility, which previously saw cost compound at an annual 10% rate over the prior five years. As a reminder, several years of doing whatever was necessary to respond to back-to-back crisis pushed our capital-to-expense ratio far below the industry average. This is where we have a wealth of opportunity and a long runway to drive efficiencies with sustainable savings benefiting both our customers and our investors. We expect future load growth related to California's leadership and electrification to be a further differentiator and one which will help keep customer build growth within our 2% to 4% forecast. In addition to continued adoption of electric vehicles throughout our service territory, we have seen a three-fold increase in data center applications in 2023 versus the prior four years. We plan to speak more about these load growth trends over the course of this year, including at an investor meeting which we are planning for June 12th in New York, so please mark your calendars for that. The fundamental differentiators of rate-based growth, O&M savings, and load growth, we would add our constructive state regulatory and policy environment in California. Key elements of the California regulatory model include four years of revenue certainty under the GRC, returns which are set separately from the GRC including a formulaic adjustment mechanism, and timely recovery for pass-through of important cost categories including fuel and pension. With our GRC resolved, we now have revenue certainty extended through 2026, giving us the best level of regulatory visibility we've had since I joined PG&E and something which any regulated utility would love. This brings me to our performance playbook, including our lean operating system, which is becoming a critical differentiator for PG&E as we continue building a sustainable culture based on continuous improvement and what we refer to as breakthrough thinking. And so, on slide nine, to my story of the month, or in this case, the story of the year. Let me first take you back to the beginning of 2023. We had a goal to underground 350 miles of electric lines at a unit cost of $3.3 million per mile. We started 2023 with only about five miles of civil construction fully complete. At that point, we had hundreds of miles still to design, thousands of individual easements to negotiate, 345 miles of trenches to dig, and 350 miles of cable to pull. And then, the winter storms hit. 15 atmospheric rivers to be exact, which brought civil work to a near standstill through April. So, how did we deliver on 2023 undergrounding plan? As scoped, on time, and at better than targeted unit cost performance? Well, during a visit with our board of directors in December, I watched proudly as the undergrounding team described how they use the PG&E performance playbook every day and at every level. What they shared wasn't one silver bullet, not just a breakthrough idea or a value stream map or a waste elimination. Rather, it was this team's commitment to living the culture, using the tools, and building the capabilities that enabled our results and which will cause future success. In 2023 alone, the undergrounding team eliminated $68 million in waste for the benefit of our customers. They did this by updating our standards, deploying optimal construction methods, and better managing spoils. With additional improvements, average unit cost came in below our target of $3.3 million to just under $3 million per mile. And the average construction cycle time improved from five and a half months back in February 2023 to three and a half months today. This was a total game changer in meeting and exceeding our 350 mile goals. Thanks to our 2023 undergrounding efforts, we can avoid proactively turning off power to about 15,000 households during dangerous high wind events. These customers who live in our highest risk areas can now sleep at night knowing they do not have to trade safety for reliability or worry that a tree might land on the power line in their backyard. This is climate resilient infrastructure for all weather conditions and for generations to come. The team reminded us that before lean we would have managed the underground efforts through spreadsheets and phone calls. That was the old PG&E way. Undergrounding team is showing us the new PG&E. Imagine the impact our performance playbook can have enterprise-wide. It's great that we achieved our 2023 goals. What's even better is that we've created a playbook enabling consistent premium performance year-end and year-out. As I like to say, performance is power. This means delivering safe, affordable and reliable service to our hometowns along with consistent predictable financial results. With that, let me turn it over to Carolyn.
Carolyn Burke:
Thank you Patti and good morning everyone. Today I'm excited to cover three topics with you. First, a recap of our 2023 results. Second, our differentiated growth opportunities. And third, how are we making this growth affordable for our customers by executing on our simple, affordable model? Starting here on slide 10, I'm pleased to report that we met or exceeded all of our 2023 goals, both operational and financial. And we're on track for each of our longer-term commitments. Our 2023 report card is another proof point that our performance playbook is working. The culture and capabilities we are building here at PG&E are enabling our delivery of consistent, predictable results. It's a virtue to recycle, setting industry-leading targets, using our lean operating system to manage the day-to-day work, and then delivering on our promises, building trust with our customers and our investors. This is how we've made our system safer, faster. It's how we deliver it on our 2022 and 2023 EPS guidance. And it's how we can further strengthen our balance sheet while keeping bills affordable for our customers. I'm especially proud that we reduce non-fuel operating and maintenance costs by 5.5% in 2023. That's in addition to fully observing inflation and on top of the 3% we achieved in 2022. Looking forward, we see no shortage of opportunities to continue delivering better outcomes for customers at a lower cost all across the business. I'd note that not all of the 2023 reduction hit the bottom line, with the majority directly benefiting customers, including our self-insurance solution and substantial efficiencies in our vegetation management work. Our mid-teens by 2024 FFO to debt target is on track, and there is no change to our plan to reduce parent company debt by at least $2 billion by the end of 2026. We remain firmly committed to achieving solid investment grade ratings. In December, we were pleased to see S&P revised their rating outlook from stable to positive, indicating the potential for an upgrade in the next 12 months. And earlier this week, I'm delighted to say that Moody's upgraded our rating by one notch, also leaving us some positive outlook. This puts us one notch away from investment grade, one step closer to our goal. We value the support we receive from our regulators, helping us strengthen our balance sheet while we execute our plan to affordably serve customers and investors. For example, on February 1st, the Commission issued a proposed decision authorizing interim rate relief in the amount of $516 million, while our wildfire and gas safety cost application is pending. The interim relief may be voted on as early as March 7th, and would provide for collections to start as soon as practical over a 12-month period. Moving to slide 11, as you can see here, and as expected, the largest discrete driver of fourth quarter and full-year results was the approval of our 2023 general rate case, which added $0.15. We also saw a benefit of $0.03, partly attributed to our non-fuel O&M savings, including better resource management and improved planning and execution. Please recall that our O&M savings are part of our simple, affordable model, which allows us to complete more work for the benefit of our customers while delivering affordability. That's exactly what you see here with $0.05 of redeployment. Our savings allowed us to stand up 10 additional model yards, designed to improve frontline productivity with more efficient processes, minimizing rework, and eliminating waste as we deliver for our customers. We also provided additional training resources for our co-workers, and we accelerated inspections, calling forward work to protect 2024, and ensuring we're doing the highest priority work for our customers. We use every extra resource to better serve our customers and achieve our commitments to you, our investors. We weather the ups and downs to deliver consistent predictable results. As Patti highlighted, we ended 2023 at the top of our EPS guidance range, although our core philosophy remains to redeploy excess earnings back into the system, benefiting customers while de-risking and extending premium growth on behalf of investors. On slide 12, we are extending our CapEx and rate-based growth projections another year to include 2028, showing a five-year annual rate-based growth of 9.5%. Our new five-year capital plan represents an increase of over $10 billion, or approximately 20% over the 2023 to 2027 plan. This also is over 45% higher than the previous five-year period from 2019 to 2023. The amounts shown on this slide reflect our base capital plan, including how much our rate-based is already approved by regulators. The vast majority, or 93%, of our rate-based for this year is already authorized, as is 90% of our 2026 forecast. In addition to our plan, there are substantial needs to do more. Specifically, we have at least an incremental $5 billion of CapEx opportunities, which we will seek to fold into our plan while still meeting our affordability commitments. These include capacity investments and transmission upgrades to support continued system-wide growth. As we work to drive affordability under our simple affordable model and ongoing deployment of lean, we will look for opportunities to add this important work. As you know, this capital investment fuels both earnings growth and improves our operating cash flow, as illustrated on slide 13, which we have updated and extended since we first showed it at last year's investor day. As shown, we're projecting substantial improvement in our operating cash flow in 2024, partly as a result of the final GRC decision. Operating cash flow grows from $5 billion in 2023 to $11 billion by 2028, providing resources to grow our capital investment for customers from $9.8 billion in 2023 to $14 billion in 2028, and substantially improving our cash flow before dividends. As Patti mentioned, our guidance includes no new equity in 2024. As we look forward, we have many good efficient financing choices, including close to $2.5 billion of annual retained earnings today and rising from there at our present low level of dividend payout. Half of our funding provided from normal utility debt, substantial levels of prior cost recovery, favorable tax conditions, poor working capital improvements, the sale of a minority interest in our non-nuclear generation assets, and potentially reintroducing an at-the-market or ATM equity program in 2025. While we are not giving the final mix of our 2025 financing plan today, rest assured that our plan only includes choices which are accretive to our guidance. In light of this, we are extending our core EPS growth rate of at least 9% through 2027 and 2028. Moving to slide 14, this is our simple affordable model and a breakdown of the 5.5% O&M savings last year. Patti shared details about our undergrounding achievements in 2023, and there are many more similar stories throughout the business. I’ll share just one more with you today. At our investor day, you heard about improvements we were making to the new customer connections process by leveraging our performance playbook. Now, here's how we ended the year. The team was able to save $24 million while decreasing average end-to-end lead time by 13%. That's a 50-day reduction. We also reduced engineering design time by 33%, a 37-day reduction. As a result, customer on-time delivery improved by 25 percentage points. I share this example to make an important point. This is not a cost-cutting program at PG&E. Rather, this is about good business decisions, which are sustainable for the long-term, and it's about using the performance playbook, including the Lean operating system, to improve how we do our work every day. Our actions are improving the customer experience and making capital and safety investments affordable. I'll end here on slide 15 with regulatory catalysts on the horizon in 2024. As you can see, they are still plentiful and include resolution of our proposed PacGen sale, a proposed decision in Phase 2 of our GRC, implementing Senate Bill 410 and unlocking our potential to meet the new customer demand here in California, filing of our 10-year undergrounding plan, and bringing our $5 billion of incremental capital opportunities into the plan while still meeting our affordability goals. Finally, I'll comment on our cost of capital adjustment advice letter, which was approved by Commission staff in December, raising our allowed ROE from 10% to 10.7% and truing up our cost of debt. While this adjustment is already approved and in customer rates starting this month, in January, a joint intervener group filed a late request for review of staff's approval. While we recognize this creates some uncertainty for investors, we were pleased that the Commission staff upheld operation of the adjustment mechanism in December as intended. Intervenors offered no new fundamental arguments in their request for review, and we look forward to this issue being resolved expeditiously. In the meantime, as we have said consistently, our EPS growth guidance is not dependent on the outcome, and we value the opportunity to redeploy the revenue uplift for the benefit of customers while delivering consistent, predictable results for investors. There's a lot to look forward to in 2024 and beyond. Including our 10% core EPS growth guidance and our at least 9% growth rate now extended through 2028. With that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Carolyn. Before we take your questions, let me introduce our new report card here on slide 16, against which you'll be able to track our record of differentiated performance. We're showing our results for 2022 and 2023, along with our goals for 2024 and beyond. We believe, we have a differentiated plan and the right team in place to deliver on these objectives. As I said earlier, performance is power, and we have significant operational momentum with a healthy set of catalysts in front of us. The PG&E turnaround is on track. We trust you feel the momentum as we do. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences, as well as our investor meeting scheduled for June 12th in New York. With that, Operator, please open the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys, good morning.
Patricia Poppe:
Morning.
Shar Pourreza:
Just Patti, on the PacGen process, I mean, have you received sort of any feedback after the last round of communications with the commission? Any sort of thoughts on hurdles and deliberation. And as you guys are sort of planning around the scenarios, does the delay potentially move your equity, especially as you return OpCo cap structure to authorized levels? Thanks.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, thanks for the question, Shar. I'd say our communications with the Commission have been very constructive regarding PacGen. We know that PacGen is a good transaction for customers. California has very long-term clean energy ambitions, and this is a beautiful fleet of clean energy resources that need investment over the coming years. And to be able to share that with an investment partner is good for California's clean energy ambitions and good for customers. And so our extended time with the Commission on these topics have been good. That helps us truly make the case. And frankly, the Commission's had a lot on its plate, and so I can understand why they wanted a little more time. They know this is an important transaction. They want to give it a full look, and our conversations have been very constructive with them regarding that. I'll hand it over to Carolyn and let her discuss about our financing plans, both with and without PacGen, because we know PacGen isn't the only thing. Carolyn referenced an important set of choices that we have. PacGen is one of our choices for financing, but I'll let Carolyn go ahead and take that.
Carolyn Burke:
Thanks, Shar, for the question. Yes, and if you don't mind, I covered a lot of this in the call, but I do recognize it's been a busy morning for many of you. So let me just cover a couple of points. First, we raised and extended our core EPS guidance today. It's 12% in 2023 and at least 10% in 2024, and at least 9% now through 2028. Our refreshed five-year plan includes improvement in our operating cash flows, rising from about $5 billion in 2023 to $11 billion in 2026. And that's providing the resources to grow our capital investment and further improve our cash flow. Three, key point here, our guidance includes no new equity in 2024 with or without PacGen. And then as we look forward beyond 2024, as we said on the call, we have many good financing choices. And they include, close to $2.5 billion of annual retained earnings today, which is rising at our present load level of dividend. We have half of our funding provided from normal utility debt. We talked about substantial levers of prior cost recovery, favorable tax conditions. We are constantly working our working capital improvements. And of course, we have potentially reintroducing an at-the-market or ATM equity program in 2025. We're not giving you all the final mix of that 2025 financing plan today, but one thing that you can count on is that our plan will include choices which are accretive to our guidance.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. Perfect. Okay.
Carolyn Burke:
Well, if I just one thing on it, because I do know, and I just know I'm going to get lots of questions on the ATM. And so I just want to close that. I think it's, I just want to say very clearly to everyone that it's just simply too soon to size the potential ATM. As we've said on this call, we have a number of other good financing choices available to us. And we have other things that we need to consider, which include our growing lien capability and O&M savings. The pace at which we introduce the additional $5 billion of CapEx. And then our own advocacy and timely regulatory outcomes. And of course, the pace of our dividend growth. So just there's a lot there. And I just thought maybe because it's been a busy morning, I want to just restate all of that for you all.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. And Char, just to close out the subject, you asked a very fulsome question, so we gave you a fulsome answer. Just to close it out, we ride the roller coaster. This is what we do. There are ins and outs, ups and downs. We ride that so that we can deliver this consistent earnings growth profile that we've described and we've committed to. We intend and we plan and are very confident that we can stand by our EPS growth guidance through 2028, even with the range of equity assumptions.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And Carolyn, this is super helpful. And thank you. And just to make sure we confirm this, it sounds like you're, I don't want to say shifting, but some of your prior messaging, with the stock price kind of dictating your equity timing to now being a little bit more focused around a more systematic approach to raising equity through the trajectory like the rest of this industry is transitioning towards. Is that a fair statement?
Carolyn Burke:
Well, I think what's important is that we stand by our commitment to you that we will find the most efficient financing available to us. And at this point in time, as we look at our stock, it is not the most efficient financing.
Shar Pourreza:
Fantastic. Thank you guys so much. Appreciate it.
Carolyn Burke:
Great. Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, great, thank you.
Patricia Poppe:
Hi, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Good morning. You picked the wrong data report with NVIDIA blowing out. But -- so...
Patricia Poppe:
It's a long game, Steve. It's a long game. We know it's going to be all right.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, yes. No, you bet, you bet. So the – just in the past, when you've talked about the growth rate, you also kind of talked to total return as part of that. And I know now that you've actually reinstated the dividend. Just any kind of reason that you didn't back to that and just -- and how are you thinking about the dividend aspect as we stand today.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, Steve, for that question. And we know that this -- obviously, our dividend is low today and the growth rate of our dividend is an area of interest for a lot of people. So I'm glad you asked. Our intent truly is to have a competitive payout ratio. And we intend to show meaningful progress during this 5-year period. And so I'm happy to be able to share more about this 5-year planning horizon. So as we think about it, this catch-up growth rate will be significant, dramatically different from peers, given our starting point. So how quickly we move within these 5 years is obviously driven by our differentiating and differentiated financing choices that Carolyn just described. And so, in this near term, I do think it's important for people to remember that we are prioritizing a healthy balance sheet, affordable investment for customers, our premium EPS growth, and then we will feather in that it would end over time. But it will obviously, as I said, have a dramatically different growth rate from peers given our starting point.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. No, that makes sense. And I guess it's better to be starting from disposition and choices have been the opposite. And then just on the yes, just on the commission and just on the packaging again. There's nothing to -- I mean they don't -- we had delays in a lot of things over time. Is it just kind of the normal process there on that? Or is something else going on with respect to the PacGen approvals?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. No, I think a couple of things just in terms of context. I do believe the adjudication of our rate case provides a lot of good visibility and discussion about cash flow, it's importance. So I do think we definitely have better alignment with the commission on subject for us, which is why we would be pursuing a PacGen transaction. I think they value the resources. And they want to make sure, on behalf of the customers of California that it's a good transaction for customers, we believe that it is a great transaction for customers it sets us up to have a partnership overtime to invest in these clean energy resources. We see growing load growth in California. We see need for new generation. This allows us to have a partner in that journey. And we know that, that will be the lowest cost of financing then for customers. And so we stand by the transaction. We know that additional time with the commission only allows us to better communicate and align with them on that.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then one more question, just on the cash flow slide, which -- that was a very helpful slide. The -- and thinking about the, I guess, the deficits that's there, each year. I mean, it's relatively modest. I mean, can a lot of that just be met with the utility debt? Because I assume utility that is not included in that yet.
Patricia Poppe:
No. I think that's the way you're thinking. I think that's right the way you're thinking about it. I'll just remind you that there is an additional $5 billion of incremental CapEx that we're looking at financing as well. And we would, again, consider that ensure that we are financing that so that it's accretive to earnings.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, thanks. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey thanks so much for taking my question. So I apologize, it's been a little all over the place, hopefully not repeating another question, but just the positive outlook, BAA1 and then obviously, good to see the [indiscernible] debt moved back to green here on the report card. Just what's your milestone? What's your understanding of the milestones and just kind of the time line to get to investment grade now?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Nick. We've been having good conversations with both Moody's and S&P. We remain intently focused on improving the credit quality, and we're laser-focused on achieving investment grade. We continue to make good progress on improving our credit metrics every year, and we're continuing to target mid-teens FFO to debt to 2024. Our 5-year plan shows the significant progress in 2024 and 2025 with sustained high levels of cash generation, as you mentioned, and the rating agency is obviously are looking beyond just the credit metric and beyond just our cash flow. They're also looking at improvements in our risk mitigation as it relates to wildfires, one more season perhaps for S&P. Moody's is laser focused as well on the wildfire mitigation, governance and management and improvement in our credit metrics. I think that's the most important gauge for you to look at when you consider milestones is the rating agencies and their reports themselves. We were very happy to see the recent upgrade and that we're -- we continue to be on positive outlook with both Moody's and S&P. So we're going to continue to execute on our plan, continue to execute on our risk mitigation, continue to execute on our O&M savings and continue to execute on ensuring that we see those improvements in our credit metrics for our rating agencies.
Nicholas Campanella:
All right. And then I guess just the June 12 Investor Day in New York, just given you've extended the plan out to 2028, which is great to see, by the way, but just -- how do we kind of think about what that Investor Day would bring? Is this kind of more of a financing update, just given the moving pieces in the strategic financing right now? Is that fair? Or how would you characterize it?
Patricia Poppe:
I'd say one of the things that we want to make sure people know is the California context and the California backdrop for the clean energy transition. This, I would say, is going to be a very differentiated part of our story relative to peers. We see the transition here in full swing, and we are a key player in that transition. So we look forward to sharing more about our load growth forecast, what that means, what does electrification really hold for both PG&E, our shareholders, our investors as well as our customers and our hometowns. So we look forward to really giving a better long-term business outlook and of course, further refinement of our financial plan.
Nicholas Campanella:
Great. Looking forward to it. Thanks a lot.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Nick.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey team, can you guys hear me okay?
Patricia Poppe:
We can hear you, Julien. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Wonderful. So look, I just wanted to follow up on a couple of things that were said thus far. In terms of updates around this ATM, I know you said you're expecting a lot of questions, but just to frame it out really. In terms of the time line here, I mean, A, you've got to know what happens with PacGen by middle part of the year. But B, I suspect you're going to continue to evaluate asset sales, you said that would be something incremental to what PacGen would materialize that. And then by the end of the year, if there was nothing else that would materialize, then you would kind of go back to that sort of last resort ATM. I mean, given the success in cost cuts, etcetera, I mean, you could kind of interpret that as effectively saying, Look, there's a lot of other levers we'll probably pull in the interim and a successful outcome at least at this stage with this equity price would be not necessarily pursuing an ATM. Is that kind of a fair way to frame it?
Carolyn Burke:
The way I would frame it is more that it's -- one, it's really, as I said, just too soon to size a potential ATM in 2025. But we have a lot of good options to consider. And so -- and we're looking, in particular, as you just mentioned, our growing lean capability and those O&M savings. You see -- you saw that we achieved 3% in 2022 and last year, 5.5%. So we're very excited about the success there and think that could be a factor. We talked about the additional $5 billion in new CapEx. We're going to make sure that, that's affordable to bring in to our plan and that we can finance it with one of these -- all of these options. So what's the timing that we introduced that $5 billion of new CapEx? And as you know, we do have a number of in-flight regulatory outcomes that we've been advocating for. And so the timing of those will really depend on how we're thinking about the ATM, a potential ATM in 2025. And of course, as Patti just covered, the timing of our dividend growth, we'll have more clarity on that and as we go into 2025 as well. So all of those are what really will drive a potential size of an ATM.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I appreciate you entertaining another question on this. And maybe just coming back, speaking of investment and successes, right, I appreciate your story, Patti. Can you talk a little bit to -- in light of those successes, how do you think about the cadence of undergrounding as you think about this year and further years, I mean, has that sort of unlocked an ability to actually accelerate what you were doing earlier and really remain on track in a more structural way. And what would be the regulatory considerations around that be to the extent to which that was an avenue that you now see increasingly as possible?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. I do think last year was an important proof point for everybody, ourselves included, that it can be done and we can do undergrounding at scale and in an affordable way for customers. Fundamentally changing the health and well-being of the customers who live near those lines. So that's our first point. But remember, the general rate case did reduce our mileage from what we had filed. So this year, we're actually probably going to do about 250 miles of undergrounding in line with the rate case. We will be filing our 10-year undergrounding plan as required by SB 884 and that will then give us a window into -- and hopefully, an approval by the end of 2025, early 2026 that we can see then in 2026 and beyond a 10-year plan for undergrounding as an important part of the climate resilient infrastructure of California. And again, I'll remind you, our undergrounding plan is not a big bet. It's about 8% of our total line miles but it's 8% in the highest risk areas. So it eliminates this choice between reliability and safety for customers. They can have both and they can have that affordably. So we'll be able to make that case very well in our filing and our 10-year filing and show the total long-term net present value benefit to customers of doing that kind of infrastructure in those places. But our capital plan is very fulsome with a variety of capital investments, and it doesn't hinge on the ungrounding plan, though we stand by that important infrastructure again as climate reliant infrastructure for the people in California of the future, not the climate of the past, but the climate that's becoming more and more real, we need to have infrastructure that is up to the challenge.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Fair enough guys. I’ll see you soon.
Patricia Poppe:
Great. Thanks Julien.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with UBS. Please go ahead.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes. Thank you, good morning. Just coming back to the cash flow slide. I was wondering if you could help fill in some of the drivers between 2024 and 2025. 2025, the dot looks to be around $10 billion in cash flow versus the $8 billion in 2024 in but you've got the wildfire recoveries coming down. So obviously, depreciation is a driver growth just struggling to connect the dots a little bit.
Patricia Poppe:
So the $5 billion to the $8 billion from 2023 to 2024 million is your question. What's driving that? Just making sure I'm...
Gregg Orrill:
Well really to 2025 because you got the wildfire recoveries coming down, but you've got the cash flow going up.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Well, primarily, that is our GRC from 2024 to 2024, the additional revenues from there. In addition to that, just remember, we have our 2% savings being compounded. And so we see that. The other key part of 2024 versus 2025 as we see a decrease in litigation as it relates to our wildfire has been part of our puzzle. And then as we -- our outlook on commodity prices, we have lower collateral postings as well. So there's a lot of moving parts, but the primary driver of the increase really is our rate base recovery from our GRC. That is the main part of the story, but there's a lot of other moving parts.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay, got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. What would be the rate payer impact of a year delay to potential PacGen sale as you see it?
Patricia Poppe:
Just the savings from PacGen sale, is that in terms of the benefits from that -- I'm sorry I'm just making sure.
Ryan Levine:
Yes. I mean you've articulated publicly or mine that there is rate benefits this transaction. So I'm just trying to get a sense of why you see a delay or a year?
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. We think this is a great transaction for customers, right? It provides customer affordability primarily through financing costs at PacGen as well as because it's improving our balance sheet, we expect to be able to up and we expect to lower financing costs for our customers G&A as well. But as Patti mentioned, we also see significant benefits for customers because these assets are so key to the clean energy goal. And having a partner that is bringing both the resources and the interest and expertise in supporting these future capital growth needs of this very important portfolio, we think that's where it's particularly going to benefit customers. So there are the two things I would point to.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And what is the enterprise lean majority percentages in your scorecard measuring, it seems very specific around 44% for the recent year?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. We do an assessment of all of our leaders and what their maturity is of the adoption and implementation of our 5 basic place, and it's a self-assessment. So the team reviews what's the standard and how are they performing to the standard of these 5 plays. And the point of the 44% score is that, that means that we have lots of room to grow our maturity. And so if you can imagine, delivering 5.5% non-fuel O&M savings, at a maturity level in the 40s, just think of the potential benefit for customers and our processes and our O&M savings over time when we grow that maturity enterprise-wide.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then what are the practical implications of bills going out for gas in February and in March for electric, if the cost of capital trigger doesn't hold?
Patricia Poppe:
So if the cost of capital trigger does not hold with the implications. It's very minor in terms of the monthly bill rate for the cost of capital adjustment. It was a couple of bucks.
Ryan Levine:
Would that get reimbursed or in future years? Or mechanically, how does that work?
Patricia Poppe:
I think it would depend on the determination and how that determination is implemented.
Ryan Levine:
Thanks for taking my questions.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey good morning team. Just I wanted to have a quick follow-up to one of Nick's questions, I guess, on the credit rating. Curious, Carolyn, on S&P, I think you had stated there waiting for one more season. Do you know what they want to see in the one season prior to an upgrade?
Carolyn Burke:
I think it's another season of performance by our team. I think there are some folks, and we've heard this from even in analyst calls that the last two winters have been not significantly in terms of a wildfire season. But we've proven with our numbers when you even adjust for the weather that we are continuing to reduce wildfire risk. And I know Patti has a...
Patricia Poppe:
And I would just say in our conversations with S&P, they focus on three main things. I would say, first, it's management and governance post-bankruptcy. So I do believe that's what they're looking at first, and then they want to see additional wildfire performance, which we feel very confident about. And then finally, obviously, the financial metrics. And so, we do -- we're -- we've been on positive outlook with them. They put us on positive outlook at the end of the year. So we look forward to them moving on that sometime in 2024.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just one follow-up on the cost of capital challenge. Is there a date where -- I don't know if the right term is the challenge gets dismissed or I know it's already in rates. I know it's not going to impact the company's 2024 guidance. But just is there a date where the commission denies the challenge?
Patricia Poppe:
There is nothing firm or definitive about that. You're right. Your thoughts are correct, though, that it is in rates and it doesn't have a bearing on our 2024 earnings other than to say that we have planned conservatively for either outcome.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Our final question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
David Arcaro:
Hey good morning. Thanks so much. Great to see you're extending the EPS growth rate here. I was just wondering kind of what gave you the confidence now to provide those EPS growth assumptions through 28 [ph] given that there's another cost of capital proceeding another GRC in the midst of that planning period?
Patricia Poppe:
We have a great plan, and it's anchored in our simple, affordable model. We have ample capital demand. And this is the thing that I want to just acknowledge for our customers who are feeling the catch-up in our bills right now. We know that we can deliver this capital infrastructure, which they have been demanding and requesting and asking for us to deliver in an affordable way. So as we look forward, we have a conservative plan. We ride that roller coaster so we can deliver a consistent outcome for investors and better service every single year for customers. And frankly, we look forward to a time in the not-too-distant horizon where we're going to be lowering bills for customers as we do that. The simple affordable model will work here in California. We are in the early days. But as we look forward, we see the capital demand matched by our cost savings, load growth and efficient financing, which allows for affordable bills for customers. That's a formula that can work for a long time forward. It gives us a lot of confidence as we give forecasted EPS growth guidance in the next 5-year plan.
Carolyn Burke:
And David, I'll just remind you, we always plan conservatively. And so that's what gives us also lots of confidence.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Excellent, thanks. And then maybe on load growth, it's the data center backdrop seems to have changed quite a bit maybe since you've given that 1% to 3% load growth figure. And it sounds like you might address that in upcoming Analyst Day. I was just wondering if that's reflective of what you've seen in your service territory in terms of that data center demand, is that accelerating ramping up from what your prior expectations had been?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Well, I can share that just in 2023, we had a 3x increase in data center applications versus the prior four years. So as we look at the 5-year forward load growth forecast, the back end of that forecast will reflect then the additional data center demand. And look, I think we all can agree that the only thing that's happening with data centers is they need more of them. And so part of the deal here is we need to make ourselves available and accessible and show that we can in fact serve that load here in California, which is what we're doing. And we'll look forward to sharing more about that in June.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Much appreciated
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the call over to Patti Poppe for closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Mandeep [ph]. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I know it was a busy one, and we appreciate your time and attention. We look forward to staying in touch with you. I just want to give a final remark and thank the entire PG&E team for delivering an outstanding 2023 for customers. They deliver for our hometowns. We're serving our planet, and we're leading with love at PG&E, and I couldn't be more proud to stand alongside with the men and women of PG&E to do just that. So feel really great about our turnaround. We know that, that turnaround is on track. Thanks to all those great people here at the company, and we look forward to seeing all of you in the coming months and definitely in June, on June 12 in New York. Thanks so much. Have a safe day.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Hello. My name is Chris, and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time, I’d like to welcome everyone to the PG&E Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you, Jonathan Arnold, Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E’s Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today’s discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors, which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s third quarter presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides along with other relevant information can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. With that, it’s my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. I’m pleased to report another quarter of solid progress. As you’ll see on Slide three, our core earnings per share of $0.24 for the third quarter bring us to $0.76 for the first 9 months of 2023. We continue to work through the review process of our general rate case at the California Public Utilities Commission and have, therefore, not yet recognized the benefit in our earnings. With the customary memo account in place, once we receive the final order, we will book the new GRC revenues starting from the January 1, 2023 effective date. As you may know, our general rate case is on the agenda for CPUC’s November 2 voting meeting next week, and we trust that the commission appreciates the importance of reaching a timely and constructive resolution, one which provides sufficient cash flow to support the critical work we have in front of us. If the GRC is not voted out next week, there are two further voting meetings in November one on the 16th and one on the 30th. Resolving our GRC will be a key milestone as it sets our CPUC base revenue through 2026. While we await the final decision, our memo account allows us to reaffirm our 2023 guidance range of $1.19 to $1.23. We also reaffirm our commitment to at least 10% earnings per share growth in 2024 and at least 9% in both 2025 and 2026, along with our plan for no new equity issuance through 2024. Looking ahead, once we have the final GRC decision, we anticipate scheduling a follow-up investor call, and we look forward to providing you with a more granular update on our financial plan at the time. Then on our year-end call in February, you should expect further detail around our investment plans. With respect to reinstating our common dividend, we recognize how important this is to traditional utility and income investors, and we look forward to recommending this important step to our Board soon. Turning back to our GRC. In our filed comments with the CPUC as well as in our public advocacy, we have been vocal that we view the ALJ’s proposed decision or PD and the assigned commissioner’s alternate proposal proposed decision, or APD, as falling short of providing the funding to accomplish the necessary safety work we have proposed on behalf of customers. As we have said, we are disappointed at the PDs apparent willingness to trade safety and reliability for short-term cost considerations. This is critical work, and in many cases, work that is required for us to execute on the safety commitments we make in our annual wildfire mitigation plan or under other regulatory orders. One good example, and there are others, is that the current PDs declined to fund over $260 million of capital for corrective maintenance of our gas meters. This work is not optional and is, in fact, required for compliance with CPUC General Order 58-A, which sets the state-wide standards for gas service in California. Unless the CPUC makes meaningful changes to the cash flow elements of the current PDs, we will have to slow down making our system safer and delay meeting legislative directives and regulatory requirements. My management team and I stand for delivering safety, reliability and affordability. We believe that our plan, thanks to the simple affordable model offers a clear pathway to keep build growth well below the current level of inflation at 2% to 4% annually over the rate case period. The CPUC’s GRC process is designed to get the best outcome, and the state has been very clear about the infrastructure they want us to build. We stand by our filing and continue to view our undergrounding plan as the fastest and most affordable path to keep our customers safe. To that end, we have been encouraged by significant statements of support received from our local leaders and stakeholders. Aside from the GRC on Slide four, we continue to mitigate physical and financial risk. On the physical side, we’re pleased with our continued progress mitigating wildfire risk through our layers of protection strategy. This remains at the heart of our plan, and we stand unapologetically on the side of public safety. In Sacramento, this year’s legislative session included a number of bills which sought to address the very real challenges utilities have had keeping up with customer growth. Since our last update, the SB 410 Energization Bill was passed by the legislature and signed into law by Governor Newsom. We viewed SB 410 as a constructive solution, allowing us to deliver the necessary work for our customers with more timely cost recovery. One key provision is for the CPUC to establish a ratemaking mechanism allowing for recovery of energization investment above what is approved in our GRC. We believe this is appropriate given the fast-moving and unpredictable nature of electrification-related customer demand and emerging and high-quality problem for any utility would love to have. In the newly opened Phase 2 of our GRC, we’ve proposed a new balancing account to implement the provisions of SB 410. Keeping affordability in mind, our proposal would cap annual incremental customer bill impact at 2.5% of electric distribution rates. This could amount to over $200 million of annual revenue, supporting close to $1.5 billion of increase of incremental capital investment. The ratemaking mechanism in addition to the GRC authorized funding will allow an estimated 300-plus distribution capacity projects and over 35,000 new business connections over the next three years if the proposed rate-making mechanism is adopted. As with the pending GRC decision, it’s critical that the Phase 2 proceeding support the necessary cash flow and timely resolution to do the work our legislature has directed and on the time line our customers are requesting. Since our last call, we’ve also made progress on legacy legal risk, reaching a settlement with the CPUC’s Safety and Enforcement Division with respect to the Dixie fire. This was for $45 million, most to be spent on the new electronic record system over five years. We continue to maintain we were a prudent operator and our settlement with SED specifically preserves our ability to apply for cost recovery, both from the CPUC and from the state Wildfire Fund. Turning to Slide five. Our layers of protection strategy continue to underpin our approach to wildfire risk as we strive to make our communities safer each and every day. We’ve now completed the work, which improves our risk reduction from 90% at the start of the year to 94%, in line with our 2023 wildfire mitigation plan. Much of this year’s improvement relates to installing down conductor detection technology, supplementing our enhanced power line safety settings and public safety power shutoff programs. Other improvements this year include securing AFA [Ph] approval for beyond line of sight drone inspections and integration of artificial intelligence for smoke detection on 610 cameras covering over 91% of PG&E’s high fire risk areas. Our latest wildfire mitigation plan is working through the review process with the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety or OEIS. Last month, we submitted our supplemental response to their revision notice and their updated schedule calls for a draft decision by November 14 with a final decision by December 29. As directed, we’re expecting to file for our 2023 safety certificate by December 12. And remember that under AB 1054, the current certificate remains in full force, while OEIS reviews the new request. Turning slide six. Let’s review our wildfire season performance to date. First, we are pleased to report that we are on track with our primary goal of zero catastrophic wildfire ignitions associated with PG&E equipment. As of October 22, CPUC reportable admissions in our high-risk zones are down 27% from last year and down 67% from 2017. The extended period of winter storms we experienced in 2023 certainly delayed the start of fire season, but this also led to an abundance of growth and fuel once conditions dried out. While we are really pleased with the headline data, variances and weather conditions from year-to-year can create some comparability challenges. To account for this, we track a weather-normalized ignition rate. We expressed this as ignitions per 100,000 circuit mile days under R3 or higher conditions, as measured by our Fire Potential Index. We’ve seen the ignition rate decline by 70% overall since 2017, including significant step-downs in 2021 and 2022, validating our layers of protection approach. This year, through mid-October, I am pleased to report that we’ve seen our weather-normalized ignition rate come down by a further 7% versus 2022. One point I want to reinforce, at PG&E, we’re ready every day for dangerous conditions. Our layers of protection do not rely on weather being in our favor. We’ve implemented state-of-the-art situational readiness technology, tools and people -- we treat every day as a high-risk day. This is the mind-set that will protect our customers and our communities. No matter the conditions we are ready. A good example is our use of public safety power shutoffs. Last year, we didn’t need to activate any PSPS events since we did not experience sufficiently high-risk wind conditions. This year, we’ve initiated two PSPS events, one in August and one in September, and both were quite localized. Through our enhanced situational awareness, which breaks the system down into 2-kilometer polygons, along with our extensive use of data and advanced meteorology, we are continuing to refine our PSPS capabilities. Our program is now far more surgical than when we first rolled it out in 2018. Because of those improvements, our PSPS events only affected around 3,900 customers in August and 1,200 in September. Our post-event analysis shows that our 2023 shutoffs prevented two likely ignitions and close to 30,000 acres, which might have otherwise burned. We are standing for our hometown and are resolved the catastrophic wildfires shall stop. PSPS and EPSS our enhanced Powerline safety settings program have been very effective at reducing ignitions. But both present unacceptable reliability challenges for customers. That’s why we see undergrounding as the right long-term infrastructure for the very specific high-risk miles identified in our 10,000-mile plan and affordable for customers at $3.40 per month for the average noncare residential customers. In fact, based on our analysis over the expected life of the assets to be installed during the GRC period, our proposal returns billions of dollars more in net present value compared to the APD. Just like our layers of physical protection, our financial plan also includes multiple layers of protection as illustrated on Slide seven. The orange wedge represents the difference between the APD rate base and our guidance midpoint. Most critically, our layers of protection include improving on the cash elements of the rate case PDs, which we are working hard to do in our advocacy. There are also three items where the PDs do not recommend this allowances, but instead shift cost recovery into other future proceedings. These include future Whimsy [Ph] or equivalent filings incremental spending on energization as provided under SB 410 and our 10-year undergrounding plan under SB 884. We also see no shortage of incremental investment headroom in our FERC jurisdiction rate base. Keep in mind that capital investment for the benefit of customers’ needs can be offset with O&M reductions and efficient financing, along with low growth to make sure safe infrastructure is also affordable. This is the heart of our simple, affordable model. Our regulators and key stakeholders are just becoming familiar with this model. And we must implement it in a very trustworthy way so that California can have the modern infrastructure in place that keeps people safe and energized, which takes me to my story of the month on Slide eight. A couple of weeks ago, I visited a site in Vacaville, where my co-workers are burying lines in a high-fire threat area. The project manager and field engineer were on site and could not have been more excited about what they were accomplishing for their home talent. This undergrounding project was originally estimated to cost close to $3.5 million a mile with a completion date in 2024. The team is now estimating a unit cost of approximately $2.9 million a mile and finishing in early December. Using Lean and the principles of waste elimination, my co-workers found opportunities to reduce materials and labor costs by challenging the status quo. They reduce trench depth and width while staying in compliance with county standards and they found additional cost savings during the backfill process. The combination of these solutions brought down the unit cost and they reduced total active construction time, making it safer, faster and reducing the impact on the community. As you can imagine, each project comes with its unique challenges, and this one was no different. What is different now at PG&E is the standard set of tools and the mind-set that my co-workers bring to every job. It’s consistent application of lean and problem solving that drives predictable and in some cases, extraordinary breakthrough results no matter what challenges we face. Sticking with undergrounding, I should note that we currently have more than 2,000 qualified personnel working safely on undergrounding in our service territory every day. Earlier this month, we announced that we had finished 100% of the heavy construction work necessary to complete the 350 miles targeted for this year. We expect to energize an average of 20 additional miles per week through the end of the year, and I could not be prouder of the team for overcoming the significant challenges presented by the weather we experienced earlier this year. Day by day, week by week, we are managing our progress, leveraging visual management and operating reviews, giving me the confidence to affirm that we are right on track with our plan for 2023 and with line of sight running well into 2024. And with that, let me hand you over to Carolyn for our financial highlights.
Carolyn Burke:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I’ll cover three main topics with you. Our 2023 year-to-date results, why we feel confident reaffirming our year-end and longer-term outlook and our simple affordable model. Let’s start with our 2023 report card here on slide nine. As Patti discussed earlier, we are solidly on track with our operational metrics. We also have confidence that we are on track to deliver our 2023 financial commitments. Today, we are reaffirming our 2023 EPS guidance range of $1.19 to $1.23, along with our EPS growth target of at least 10% for 2024 and at least 9% for 2025 and 2026. We are also reaffirming our commitment to no new equity in 2023 or 2024. We may have noticed our Amber dial signaling a potential challenge to reaching our FFO to debt target in 2024. While we remain committed to achieving our mid-teens FFO to debt as quickly as possible, as discussed in our public comments throughout the past several weeks, the PD and APD in our general rate case fall short on cash flow in two notable areas. First, both the PD and APD extend the amortization period for collecting our incremental 2023 revenue increases to 36 months, packing an additional 2 years onto our requested 12-month collection period. This longer amortization period pushes out cash flow and unnecessarily burdens customers in the form of additional interest cost. Second, the APD allows only 25% of the customary inflation index adjustment, which risks lowering the pace of our balance sheet recovery as intervening parties acknowledge that last week’s oral argument, our request and the index supporting it are consistent with commission precedent. Taken together, these cuts will constrain future cash flows. And as we’ve said to the commission, we will be forced to make some difficult choices on what priority work to dial back on and what to complete. We simply are not willing to compromise on safety. Nor can the state afford to see us take a step backwards in terms of the progress we’ve made improving our credit metrics. As Patti mentioned, we are advocating strongly for improvements in the PD. And we trust the CPU understands the importance of a financially healthy utility, just as we understand the importance of keeping bills affordable for customers. The simple affordable model makes both financial health and affordability possible. Turning to Slide 10. As we’ve said, we are on track to meet our 2023 EPS guidance of $1.19 to $1.23. On a year-to-date basis, our result is $0.76 per share, including $0.24 in the third quarter. During the first nine months of 2023, we’ve realized $0.03 of favorability from operating and maintenance cost reductions, which we have fully redeployed right back into the business. And we’re on track for at least our annual 2% nonfuel O&M reduction target. The $0.04 of timing is expected to fully reverse by year-end. And includes the typical tax driver, which results in variances between quarterly and annual earnings. This driver is even more pronounced this year as we await the final decision in our GRC. And the $0.04 of other has not changed from last quarter. Once we receive a final GRC decision, we will record the catch-up revenues supporting our customer capital investments for the full year 2023 as tracked in our approved memo accounts. This incremental catch-up revenue is the largest discrete driver of earnings that we project for the fourth quarter. As you may have seen, we have adjusted our accrual for the 2021 Dixie fire this quarter. Our focus continues to be on making it right for the victims, and we are making a non-cash increase to our accrual of $425 million to reflect our claims settlement experience to date. At the same time, we recorded an offsetting receivable from the state Wildfire Fund, reflecting our continued confidence in the protections provided by AB 1054. On Slide 11, our 10-year capital investment plan has not changed. As I mentioned earlier, we continue to advocate for improvements in the final outcome of our GRC. At the same time, we have several layers of financial protection to support our plan, including opportunities to seek cost recovery for the needed safety and reliability investments that our system requires. Our customers demand and which are legislative and regulatory stakeholder support. You can be sure that we’re not taking our foot off the pedal to find and realize opportunities to further improve quality and reduce cost. Reducing costs and delivering more for our customers are core to our simple affordable model shown here on Slide 12. Coupled with load growth and efficient financing, this is how we plan to keep customer bills affordable. In fact, while we expect a step up in average customer bills in 2024 with the GRC implementation, our internal forecast for 2025 and 2026 show a declining bill trajectory. As we progress our lean tools, lower O&M costs and as legacy cost items, including [Indiscernible] recoveries roll off. This permits us to sustain average annual bill increases from 2023 through 2026 at or below assumed inflation in the 2% to 4% range, even with the first year GRC step up. Part of our affordable model is efficient financing. Our sale of a minority stake in our nonnuclear generating assets, Pacific Generation has received robust inbound interest for this attractive and unique portfolio. The regulatory record closed earlier this month and a PD is due early next year. We are targeting a transaction closing date in mid-2024. I’ll end here on Slide 13, looking forward to 2024. On October 13, you saw this file an advice letter with the CPUC seeking to implement the cost of capital adjusted adjustment mechanism effective January 1, 2024, subject to commission disposition. Based on market interest rates, the mechanism has triggered, resulting in a formulaic 70 basis point upward adjustment to our return on equity and a 35 basis point upward adjustment to our cost of long-term debt. We believe the increase is well justified by market conditions. And if improved, we anticipate reinvesting any upside beyond our targeted earnings growth right back into the system for the benefit of our customers. On the same day, we also filed our TO21 rate case application with FERC seeking a 12.87% ROE, inclusive of the 50 basis point CAISO participation adder. A FERC order, except in the filing is expected by mid-December for rates to be effective January 1, 2024. Our filing includes $1.9 billion in forecasted capital additions during 2023 and 2024. As a reminder, a nice feature of our formula rate structure is the annual true-up mechanism, which adjusts rates to reflect actual costs, including customer capital investment, which, as we’ve said, is an area where we see abundant growth opportunities. To summarize, we are mitigating both our physical and financial risk with layers of protection. Although we are concerned that the PDs and our GRC risk setting us back to -- in our quest to restore our credit ratings. We believe we can make our system safer faster and more affordable for our customers. At the same time, we are offering attractive earnings growth to investors. We are looking forward to reinstating our common dividend soon and we look forward to catching up with many of you at EEI next month. With that, I’ll hand it back to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Carolyn. Before we take your questions, I just wanted to take a moment to review our regulatory and legislative time line shown here on Slide 14 and reflect on some of our highlights in 2023, starting with our wildfire self-insurance settlement in January which we see saving customers up to $1.8 billion through this 4-year GRC period. Other milestones include resolving our safety culture OII. Settlements with the CPUC Safety and Enforcement Division for both the Zogg and the Dixie fires and over $1 billion of interim rate relief approved in our 2022 Wenzy [Ph] proceeding. We have plenty to look forward to as well. Key catalysts we can point to include resolving our GRC and achieving base revenue visibility through 2026, approval of our 2023 WMP and safety certificate, resolution of our GRC Phase 2 proposal to implement SB 410. Our 10-year undergrounding plan filing under SB 884, disposition of our cost of capital adjustment advice letter. The proposed decision on Pacific Generation and advancing our DOE loan application. That’s a lot of value to come for customers as well as investors. In addition to regulatory catalysts, we look forward to further progress towards normalizing our financial profile. With the Fire Victim trust completing their sales, restoring our credit ratings to investment grade to unlock significant financing cost savings for customers and reinstating our common dividend. We believe these catalysts favorably differentiate the PG&E investment story anchored in our simple affordable model. Our strategy remains focused and is based on the foundational belief that a financially healthy and well-run PG&E can and will play a leading role in enabling the clean, affordable and resilient energy future to which the state of California and our customers aspire. We trust that you feel the momentum that we do. And with that, operator, please open the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] First question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, Patti. Just on the core drivers in the metric away from on track for FFO by 2024. I mean obviously, Carolyn mentioned in the prepared remarks, did I quote like you have to make some pretty difficult decisions, but most of your spending being somewhat crucial for the state. I guess what difficult decisions were you referring to? I guess, how do you manage this headwind under an assumption that the various rate requests are adverse and don’t work into your planning assumptions? And could we see incremental equity as a result of that as you try to right size the metrics? Thanks.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, Shar, for the question. These are all things, obviously, on our mind. Look, first of all, the process isn’t finished. We’re in the throes of completing the final decision for our rate case. We know how important it is. We also know the important work that we want to do for customers. And that is at the heart of what we requested in the rate case and the heart of our advocacy. In terms of difficult choices, I think what we look at, we see without the necessary cash flow, it definitely slows down our ability to complete the work, but we also know that we’re committed to improving the health of our balance sheet. I’ll address your equity point, but then I want to make a broader point about the regulatory environment here in California. First, on the equity point, we’re still committed for sure, to our commitment to not issue equity through 2024. We stand by that plan. We know that issuing equity at this valuation is not good for customers. We need to make sure that we have the equity and access to the capital markets that attracts capital to California, so we can make those necessary investments. So we’re standing by our plan there through 2024. But back to the construct and to your question about how do we make these choices. Look, the California regulatory construct is good. It has a lot to love and I’ve learned that as I’ve been here it provides many earnings mechanisms and provide certainty in those earnings mechanisms. Let me give you one example. We had these major storms back at the beginning of the year, like 14 storms in the first quarter. And we were able to recognize the revenue associated with covering the cost of those storms through our CEMA mechanism. But we don’t collect the cash. There’s a delay in that. And so that’s the part that I think people are coming to terms with. Here in California, specifically about PG&E is that given our we’re on a path to become healthy. We’re on a path to recover our balance sheet. We’re committed to FFO to debt in the mid-teens. In order to do that, we have to have timely cash recovery. And that’s the point we’ve been trying to make about these proposed decisions that they allow too much cash flow lag and we don’t have a balance sheet that can afford that. I think a typical investment-grade utility can handle that buffer. And so the regulatory construct works. But given that we are in the situation we are with our credit metrics, we’ve got to improve those credit metrics and this is essential to returning us to the position so that. And this is the part that’s most important, Shar, so that we can do that necessary work on time. We don’t want to have to slow down the deployment of the work. We don’t want to have to make choices for customers about which essential work we do first. We want to be able to do that work in parallel. I have the work team -- I have the team here at PG&E who’s ready to go, who can do that work for customers that can make the system safer, faster, but we need the cash flow. And so I think it’s a new issue here in California. It’s a new issue for our regulators to deal with the fact that our credit ratings are where they are. But we do see a path that if we all work together. And if PG&E proves itself trustworthy as we work to do every day, and I think the progress we’ve made to date is starting to provide that evidence that we can do what we said we’re going to do. That we have earned the right to be trusted to deploy this cash to the best benefit of customers, and that’s really what we’re focused on doing Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it, Pat. And then just lastly for me on Slide 7, you pointed out that the APD run you in the bottom half of the rate base guidance. Can you just comment on the cadence of the customer investments that you back that gets you back to the midpoint? What are, I guess, some of the more additive construct? Is it SB 410, is it WMCE? And if like this whole undergrounding issue is reduced I guess, how long would it take you to ramp up to that 10-year plan, especially there seems to be a lot of stakeholders pushing back on the undergrounding costs. Thanks a lot guys.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Good question, Shar. Thank you. I would say, first of all, these new mechanisms, particularly those that are reflected in the new legislation, SB 410 and last year’s legislation around undergrounding do provide for us to do the work. But again, it all comes back to our access to cash and the cash flow. And so we think that we definitely can catch up on the work and do the work if we have the cash. And so that’s an important role that these PDs play as we move forward. I will also say that on the undergrounding specifically, it’s a relatively small cost in the overall rate case. So in terms of customer cost, as we’ve calculated and have been sharing $3.40 a month is the impact to customers at the peak of the rate case for customers to do the undergrounding. And the customers I talked to are pretty excited about us doing that work. And so we continue to make the case that undergrounding in very specific miles. And I think it seems to some in some cases, it feels like people are trying to do an all or nothing. It’s either we do undergrounding or we do covered conductor. The reality is we have 1,000 miles of covered conductor, there are places on our system where covered conductor is the right choice. What we’re talking about is a very specific highest-risk miles with a very unique geography, particularly suspect for vegetation strike. And that vegetation management expense that we are doing every year customers have to pay for. And I think people don’t understand it actually is less expensive to do the undergrounding. And people understand it costs something $3.40 a month, but it will cost more to continue to do vegetation management and overhead hardening and the maintenance of those overhead lines in these specific areas. So we continue to make the case. Look, Shar, we see a path forward to do all of the necessary work that our customers have been begging us to do. We’re excited about being able to do that work, and we’re sure that we can get to a good constructive outcome with our regulators.
Shar Pourreza:
Fantastic guys. I’ll jump back in the queue. Appreciate it.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
The next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe. Your line is open.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, thanks hi, good morning. So the -- you talked about the -- obviously, to get more cash, there’d be more rate increase upfront, but then you talked about the declining bill trajectory and rollover and such that, obviously, you need to do the work and you want to get into that declining build trajectory. Could you just talk about that aspect and some of the things that help in 2025, 2026?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, you bet. Yes, it’s a great question, Steve. And I also think it’s something that’s been hard to understand in all of the public comments and advocacy. Look, there’s some catch-up that needs to be done here. And in California, we have this construct where we need to do necessary work and the utility bears the risk of doing all the wildfire preventive work. And so there are some onetime short-term costs that are embedded in the early years of this rate proceeding. But as the years progress, then those things come out of the bill. So for example, as we do the recovery of the 2023 revenues that obviously needs to be captured then. And our proposal is a 12-month capture in 2024. So if you can imagine a customer would be collecting bills in 2024, that we are paying bills in 2024 that reflect 2024 and 2023s revenue. And then that comes off. And then the bills come down significantly. And so what we’re -- the point we’re trying to make is that there is some catch-up in this, but bills can definitely improve, that’s just math. But what I think is really important and the part that people don’t necessarily yet appreciate about the new PG&E model is our simple affordable model. This is not just a slogan, it’s not just a thing we say, this is something that we do every day. And that is funding capital investment through cost savings, cost reduction we have had dramatic cost improvements already on our undergrounding, on our vegetation management. Our next big hurdle is our system inspections. We’ve got major improvements that we can make there. Then we add in the efficient financing. Look, getting our credit ratings in the right place will save customers money, not spreading out the collection of the 2023 revenues over 3 and 4 years will save customers money. We have the ability to reduce costs in the bills, and that’s what we’re focused on every day. I think that’s a new habit, a new pattern for PG&E to be recognized for. And so I can appreciate that regulators and others have questions and wonder if that’s actually what we’re going to do. All I can say, Steve, I think you know my track record, we can do real cost savings that benefit customers while we’re making these very necessary investments in the infrastructure.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then just -- could you just go through the steps here. So the GRCs on the agenda for the meeting next week. Is that mean they likely will rule or could they delay it? And could we still get another alternate? Or are we likely just going to kind of get a final order.
Patti Poppe:
Well we’re hopeful, Steve, that November 2 reflects a final decision. But what’s on our mind is we want to make sure that it’s the right final decision. And so -- if -- I think there’s still two meetings, November 16 and November 30. If in fact, they wanted to take more time to get it right. But we’re hopeful that November 2 represents a final decision.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
The next question is from Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey thanks for taking the question. I guess just very clear on the FFO to debt disclosures here, but just can you elaborate on just the agency conversations on the path to IG right here right now? And how we should think about if this PD is adopted your path to get there? Thanks.
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. Thanks for the question. We have been in continuous conversation with the rating agencies about our rating. And we’ve actually already spoken to them about the GRC and the PDs and the impact on FFO to debt. But we’ve also talked to them about our commitment to achieving mid-teens in 2024 and other ways that we can get there if we need to. But it is challenged, and it’s going to slow -- it will slow our progress on our balance sheet. So the path to get there really is about FFO to debt and getting to at least the 13% to the 14%, and that’s what we’re committed to doing over the course of the next 2 years for sure, and we’re committed to getting to mid-teens by the end of 2024.
Nicholas Campanella:
That’s helpful. And I think you also said in regards to the wildfire fund, you booked like a $400 million and change receivable. Is this the first time the fund has been tapped? And correct me if I’m wrong there, but just what’s the process around actually receiving that?
Carolyn Burke:
So we haven’t actually tapped the wildfire fund. So on the Dixie accrual, we did increase the accrual by $425 million. We have an accrual of $1.6 billion in total at this point in time. But what’s important is that you can’t tap the fund until you actually -- until we have actually paid out $1 billion in settlement. So to date, we have a 730 -- we’ve settled around $730 million, and we’ve paid out $575 million. So we have a ways to go to fully paying out $1 billion. But the statute limitations on Dixie actually runs out in October of 2024. So we are in preparing for that filing as we speak and working with the fund on how to ensure a smooth of a process as possible.
Patti Poppe:
And this is Patti. I’ll just add in. So no, it hasn’t been done before, Nicolas. And so we’re working through what that process will be. And so that’s not perfectly clear, but I do want to remind everyone that the benefits of AB 1054, there’s -- it’s a fundamental change in California that really helps create the certainty required to number one, prevent a liquidity issue in the event of a significant incident. It allows us if, in fact, we had did have to, in a hurry, get access to that fund, we could access it to pay third-party damages. But as Carolyn said, it’s actually -- it takes time to settle and to pay out those settlements, but the enhanced prudency standard that comes with AB 1054 is another enhancement that will be good to see as we move forward here. And so I think there’s a lot to appreciate about AB 1054 and the protections it provides and the certainty it allows for here in California as we do this necessary safety work to make the system safer faster.
Carolyn Burke:
Yes. And I’ll just remind you that we also just -- we did record an offsetting receivable for that -- for the state wildfire fund for that accrual?
Nicholas Campanella:
Yes. Thank you for the clarification and [Indiscernible] thanks.
Carolyn Burke:
Thanks, Nicholas.
Operator:
The next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning, team. Thank you very much guys. Appreciate the time. Just first off here, on the undergrounding and the timing-related matter here. I mean, obviously, sort of for the purpose of efficiency, you want to keep this going in a more linear fashion and you guys are up and going here. Do you want to talk about sort of funding and ensuring consistency and execution through the near term, barring whatever comes out in some subsequent process here on longer-term undergrounding. Obviously, you’ve carefully negotiated the -- with the various contractors in the medium term here, if you don’t mind.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Well, first and foremost, let me be clear, we won’t do work that the commission didn’t fund. And so our plan right now is the most efficient plan we agree. We have done negotiations with contractors. We’ve developed a workforce. As I mentioned in the script, I’ve got 2,000 people right now today, doing undergrounding and those people are skilled and qualified -- boy, I don’t want to tell them that they have to step off the job. But the reality is we’ve got 350 miles planned for this year, and we’ve got engineering in the hopper to prepare us for next year’s 450-mile target. And then we’re focused on 550 miles in 2025 and 750 miles in 2026, but all of this is contingent upon regulator approval. So if the CPUC decides we should do less undergrounding or to slow down the path, it will cost more for customers, but obviously, we’ll take their direction, and we’ll then file our 10-year plan and make sure that it does its best job of compelling a more favorable decision to get the scale because that’s the beauty of what we’ve observed already, just like the story of the month that I shared on the call, we are finding savings on every job. And scale is essential to realizing those savings for customers. So that’s really what’s on our mind as we move forward. We will be filing that 10-year plan when the OEIS is prepared to receive it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Exactly. And maybe the point is, to the extent which that has a process that could take a couple of years here. If you really want to be watching your ability and/or rather the commission’s decision tree on not just 2024 but also 2025 in terms of what’s right in the near term?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, exactly. We certainly don’t want to come to a cold hard stop. Like we want to be able to keep moving and keep the acceleration of the benefits for customers rolling every mile buried as another mile of risk virtually eliminated. And so we’re really focused on these very specific miles and getting these specific miles done as soon as possible to protect the people of California, and we think we can do that at a very affordable price.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And Patti, just following up on our prior conversation on SB 410 and enabling timely interconnect. I mean, do you want to talk about how that bolsters the cash flow conversation you had a second ago here on the call vis-a-vis ratings and targets?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. We’re very grateful for the legislature and the great work that they did this year in recognizing that when you do a 4-year forward-looking rate making, you don’t -- you can’t perfectly predict the demand that we’re actually experiencing. And so as demand increases, SB 410 allows for an annual true-up of recoveries for the work that needs to be done to enable electric vehicle transition to electrification in the state. And I’m very proud of my team. We’ve been working hard to improve our own process while we get the necessary funding. What’s important is that we are able to do our work more timely. And so here’s some news from this year we delivered a 17% increase in volume of requests this year. So in 2022, we did 7,900 new business connections. We’re up to 9,200 here in 2023. So that’s a 17% increase. Really proud of the team, things all of our lean operating system being put to work, have deployed things like we are estimating, which is our engineering and work preparation is a critical part, but can be a bottleneck in the process. That team has gone to work reimagining how they do estimating, and they’ve reduced their cycle time from 116 days down to 71 days. I mean that’s a 50% improvement in really a 1-year focused effort. So the ability for us to improve throughput and meet the needs of customers is real. We’re starting to prove to people that we can, again, do what we said we’re going to do and the cash flow that’s enabled by SB 410 is helpful because it’s more timely, but there is still a year’s lag. And so again, we’ve got to get these credit ratings back up into investment grade so that we can attract the debt markets at the lowest cost for customers. And this whole -- the plan hangs together extremely well when we are -- when we have a balance sheet to fund all this really important work that we need to do for customers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
The next question is from Gregg Orrill with UBS. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, thank you good morning. On PacGen [Ph] I know there’s been a lot of support in the process. Could you sort of remind us about what has to happen to close the transaction from here and any sort of risks or concerns you might have around it? Thank you.
Carolyn Burke:
Yes, good morning. Thanks for the question. So PacGen is on track. We’re following the process, as we’ve mentioned, that we had kicked off our Phase 1 of the sales process at the end of June and July, and we’re now in what we would call Phase 2. So we’re tracking the marketing and sales process right along with the regulatory process. I think the major milestone on the regulatory really is that the PD is due in January of are within 90 days of the record closing, which occurred on October 5, 2023. So we still expect the closing to occur in the first half of we have seen very robust interest from what we expected in terms of interest in these very unique differentiated assets, largely from infrastructure funds, but we’re pleased with the interest and still expect the time line to be as we’ve discussed in past earnings calls.
Patti Poppe:
And I’ll add. This is Patti. The PacGen the whole purpose of that is for efficient financing for customers. And so this is a good example of how we’re not just counting on others. We’re not just counting on the regulators to fix our balance sheet. There are things self-action that we can take that we are taking that is really intended to help enable customers to get the value that they’re demanding, the value they deserve in this infrastructure that we have the privilege to build for them. And so this is just another example of our simple affordable model, efficient financing as a piece of the puzzle to make sure that we can invest in the infrastructure and save customers money. And so that’s what we’re up to on this transaction.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay, good wishes.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Gregg.
Operator:
The next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. As the company engages the CPUC ahead of the November 2 potential decision, is the company open to accelerating or open to committing to accelerate the undergrounding of the top 5% risk lines. And to the extent that permitting is a limitation, is there a political solution that could help advance both the company and key stakeholders’ interest on this front?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Our plan is dynamic enough that in 2025 and 2026, we can adjust the miles and make sure that they’re mutually agreeable, if you will. I will say that as we designed the sequencing of the miles, we picked -- well -- and let me just start with every mile in the 10,000 miles is high risk. So if you do mile 8,000 or mile 2000, you’re still tackling a high-risk mile. So we’ll start with that. But as we sequence those 10,000 miles, we did include the adjacent miles that also will be underground for an efficiency. That’s how we get to the lower unit cost. But if there’s certain miles that the regulators instruct us to do sooner as we work with OEIS on our risk reduction plan will definitely be prioritized. We definitely are focused on making sure that the system is safe today because of our mechanisms like EPSS and public safety power shutoffs but those cause outages. The public safety power shutoffs and the EPSS mechanisms are working. We showed that with our ignition reduction. And so we know customers are safe today, but we want them to be resilient. We don’t want customers to have to choose between having safety or having power. We want them to have both and undergrounding as the lowest cost path to that future.
Ryan Levine:
I appreciate the response. And then one other unrelated. In terms of the details on SB 410 impact, what is the nature of the 300-plus projects highlighted in the prepared remarks, any color you could share there?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. So we have demands every day on capacity increases, EV charging infrastructure. And so that’s just -- and that demands some of that we can’t -- we don’t know the project request yet because it will come in a very -- it happens all the time. And so that’s the point about SB 410. We can’t perfectly predict what those 300 projects would be. Otherwise, we wouldn’t need the mechanism. Because it comes in as EV penetration increases to meet the state’s direction as EV charging infrastructure gets built out. That will vary year after year. And so that’s the beauty of SB 410, whatever the demand is, we can meet it. And we won’t recover more than we install, we’ll just have good timely true-up of that work that gets demanded by customers. And so that’s more of a calculated 300 than actual specific 300 projects. .
Ryan Levine:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Richard Sunderland:
Hi, good morning. Richard Sunderland on for Jeremy. Can you hear me?
Patti Poppe:
We sure can. Good morning.
Richard Sunderland:
Great. Thank you. Slide 7, I know we’ve parsed this from a couple of different angles, but I just wanted to circle back to those categories broadly under customer investments. Could you speak a little bit more to, I guess, timing and dollar of those? I don’t know if it’s best if they’ve gone sort of a cash basis or a CapEx basis. But when you might have clarity on some of those should the PD or APD stand as it is today?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Well, we’ll be working that. First and foremost, we think a revision to the PD will be good and enable us to do more faster, so number one. Number two, though, as we look at the SB 410, that’s going to be driven by customer demand, and that’s good work to be done. Our whimsy proceedings, we’ll continue to file those on a timely basis. Those certainly help with cash flow. It’s a good example of a delayed recovery that doesn’t affect earnings, but it certainly affects our credit metrics and our balance sheet. And so WIMS [Ph] will be important to be resolved in a timely manner. But the 10-year undergrounding plan just provides the pathway to the lowest cost safest infrastructure. And then certainly, FERC transmission, as you saw, we filed our TO filing earlier in October. We’ll continue to leverage the ability to do that at those transmission projects as well as key components of the whole picture. One of the things that is really important to understand is I rattle off all those things, there is so much work to be done here. Work that customers deserve work that customers will greatly value and benefit from work that customers have been asking us to do for some time. And so what’s important to recognize is we always self-regulate the volume of work we do on customers’ ability to afford. That is the simple affordable model. That we can invest in this capital infrastructure as indicated in -- on Slide 7, but we offset it with cost savings for customers every single day. And so those cost savings is what makes it possible to grow rate base like that without putting an undue burden on customers and their ability to pay. So it’s value for customers and cost savings that make up that simple, affordable model, good for customers, good for investors.
Richard Sunderland:
Understood. Very helpful. And maybe since you referenced the 21 application, curious if there are any notable request in that beyond ROE and cap structure? Any other potential areas you’re focused on with that?
Patti Poppe:
No, it’s good bread and butter transmission investment, stuff that helps enable the clean energy transition that’s happening here in California and work that improves both reliability and access to that clean energy.
Richard Sunderland:
Great. Thanks very much for the time.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you.
Operator:
That will conclude our question-and-answer session. I’ll turn it back over to Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer of PG&E for any closing remarks.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us. We definitely enjoy this time together, but we appreciate certainly your patience on this GRC. It has a long-term impact. And it is worth the way to get it right and to make sure that we are aligned with our regulators. We all want the same thing. We want the safest system as fast as possible that customers can afford. And so we’re working together to get to a good outcome and we appreciate your patience. We will hold a special call once we have a final decision to review the details and share more of our insights when we get to a final resolution. We look forward to seeing you at EEI and please be safe out there.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen thank you for standing by. My name is Brent and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Mr. Jonathan Arnold Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us for PG&E's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today's second quarter earnings call presentation. Presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides along with other relevant information can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30 2023. With that it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO Patti Poppe.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Jonathan. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on what we know is a very busy earnings morning. We continue to make progress here at PG&E and this quarter is no different. Our core earnings per share of $0.23 for the second quarter bring us to $0.52 for the first half of 2023. While our first half earnings are down $0.03 versus 2022 we have not yet recognized the benefit of our general rate case. As a reminder we have a memo account in place which will allow us to book catch-up revenues from the January 1 2023 effective date once we receive a final CPUC decision. We still expect a final decision in the third quarter and we were encouraged that the CPUC affirmed this timing earlier this month. As we shared at our Investor Day in May 86% of our incremental revenue request is for core safety reliability and maintenance work. All areas where there is strong alignment with state policy goals and stakeholder priorities. While the GRC decision will be an important driver halfway through the year we remain on track to plan and laser-focused on delivering our annual guidance which we are reaffirming today. We are also reaffirming earnings growth rates of at least 10% in 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026 along with our commitment to no new equity issuance through 2024. Turning to Slide 4. We've continued to make progress in mitigating physical and financial risk. On the physical front we continue to focus on system resilience by reducing wildfire risk and preparing for the grid of the future. We continue to make progress on the regulatory front as well. For example, in the second quarter the CPUC approved over $1 billion of interim rate relief in our 2022 Wednesday proceeding. This accelerates the time line for recovering our legacy wildfire mitigation spend improves our financial metrics and allows us to deliver on needed safety reliability and customer connections work benefiting both our customers and our investors. On the legal front, at the end of May, we were pleased to settle with the Shasta County District Attorney's Office resolving the criminal charges related to the 2020 Zogg Fire. The settlement includes commitments by PG&E to contribute $45 million to various local organizations as part of our ongoing efforts to make it right and make it safe. Our settlement followed rulings by the Superior Court which upheld our long-standing position that there was no evidence showing PG&E's inspections fell below the required standard of care, nor was there any evidence that the risk related to the tree was visible prior to the fire. The court's ruling from April is available on our Investor Relations website. Turning to financial risk mitigation. Our strategy continues to hinge around the simple affordable model, which delivers consistently improving value for customers and investors. Regarding the Fire Victim Trust, we are encouraged that the trust has now monetized over 85% of its initial holding and at steadily higher values for its beneficiaries. After the 60 million share sale earlier this month, the trust now holds just over 3% of our stock. As of the end of June, determination notices have been issued for 97% of all claims with the trustee having indicated a goal to reach 100% and monetize the remaining shares by year-end. Turning to slide five. We highlight our layers of protection strategy along with our anticipated step-up in risk reduction from 90% to 94%, as we roll out our new and expanded programs under our 2023 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. One example is downed conductor detection technology, which involves installing new hardware in the field, supplementing our enhanced power line safety settings. We filed our WMP with the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety in late March and the OEIS came out with its revision notice towards the end of June. We view this feedback as a constructive part of the WMP process and we embrace the opportunity to drive further alignment with our regulators. OEIS identified eight critical issues and we will file our response by August 7 deadline with the draft decision from OEIS expected at the end of September. The revision notice process will not preclude us from filing our annual safety certificate application by the due date of September 13 with OEIS approval due 90 days later. As a reminder, our existing safety certificate remains in effect pending an OEIS decision on our timely filed new application. Earlier this month, at the Annual Board level safety briefing with the CPUC, our Utility Board Chair, Cheryl Campbell; and our Chief Operating Officer, Sumeet Singh discussed our safety culture, performance and details of our enterprise safety management system. These meetings are an element of our AB 1054 compliance and provide an opportunity to engage with regulators on our improvement strategies. We were encouraged to hear commissioners recognize our significant progress, while acknowledging our challenges including changing climate conditions. It's in moments like this that we step back and reflect on the progress being made. In fact at a recent meeting with all of our top leaders, Mark Quinlan, our SVP of Wildfire and Emergency Operations stood up to address the elephant in the room when he said, I bet you're all watching the weather and thinking back to 2017. Well, let me remind you just how much we've done since then. He went on to remind us all that we have an entirely different readiness posture and physical risk mitigation regime in place. Back in 2017, we were reacting and responding to hazards. The investments we've made since then have enabled a dramatic shift to predicting and preventing. Slide 6 illustrates the mitigations now in place thanks to these important investments in innovation. To name just a few. Since 2017, we have installed over 600 high-definition cameras now with AI capabilities more than 1,400 weather stations and almost 1,400 sectionalizing devices. We've hardened over 1,300 miles of line and undergrounded over 300 more. We've removed 3.3 million trees. We've staffed a hazard awareness warning center 24 hours a day seven days a week 365 days a year and we've hired 130 fire prevention professionals who are on our PG&E team and making us safer every day. We've implemented a host of operational mitigations including enhanced power line safety settings on 44000 miles of line in and adjacent to our high fire risk areas. We've enabled public safety power shutoffs when conditions warrant them and new for 2023 we've deployed partial voltage force out and down conductor detection. Our system has never been safer and yet it will be even safer still tomorrow and every day after that. As we shared with the CPUC during the safety briefing we are making progress and we have more work to do. Safety permeates through everything we do and the presence of controls, including our layers of protection leads to manageable and predictable outcomes. I'm confident that we and our key partners including the state are doing everything we can to cause our stance catastrophic wildfires shall stop. The data tell the story. Through mid-July reportable ignitions in our high fire threat district have decreased 53% from the equivalent date in 2017. Last year, we saw a 68% reduction in ignitions on EPSS-enabled circuits and a 99% reduction in acres burned. The data so far suggests we are on track to see further improvement in 2023. Our hard work over the past five years has dramatically changed our risk exposure and the fundamental safety of our system and we aren't stopping there. Moving to slide 7. We also see profound changes in financial risk mitigation due to the framework put in place by SB 901 and AB 1054. At our Investor Day, you heard Ann Patterson Governor Newsom's Cabinet Secretary talk about how the state Wildfire Fund is working as planned. The AB 1054 construct is designed to give utilities and capital providers the financial assurance they need while deploying the investments required to bring down wildfire risk on the system over time. Let me quickly revisit the key features for those looking for a refresher or who may be newer to our story. For wildfire claims exceeding $1 billion in a calendar year, we have access to the state wildfire fund. This provides $21 billion of claim-paying capacity protecting investors from the risk of a liquidity event. Our annual wildfire mitigation plan is a requirement for receiving our annual safety certificate. So long as we have a valid safety certificate we have access to two additional key features of AB 1054. First, the utility's conduct is presumed to have been prudent upfront when it comes to seeking cost recovery at the CPUC along with the prudency standard modeled on the constructive FERC precedent. Second in the unlikely event of the utility being found to have acted imprudently any resulting obligation to reimburse the wildfire fund would be capped at 20% of electric T&D equity rate base on a three-year rolling basis. This cap is currently around $3 billion for PG&E. This is a much better construct than what was in place prior to SB 901 and AB 1054 and that enables the attraction of the necessary capital to build and operate a safe and climate resilient energy system. Turning to Slide 8. Let's review our regulatory and legislative time line. We've made progress on multiple fronts in the first half of the year including, approval of our wildfire self-insurance settlement, the Zogg Fire litigation settlement and 2022 WMCE Interim Rate release. Looking forward, we have several catalysts on the horizon, starting with a GRC final decision expected in the current quarter; the ongoing legislative session in Sacramento where we have seen constructive engagement on energization, which you've heard us previously refer to as new customer connections, showing the legislature's commitment to California's clean energy transition and then on our 2023 wildfire mitigation plan and safety certification processes. Looking a little further out, at the end of this year, we will file our nuclear operating license extension application for Diablo Canyon with NRC and we remain ready to submit our 10-year undergrounding plan once the OEIS and the CPUC complete their scoping process. On Slide 9, you have our 2023 report card where we're showing on track for each of our 2023 and long-term targets. This includes our plan to underground 350 miles in 2023, double last year's target and our 2024 FFO to debt target of mid-teens. As you can see, we're also projecting on track for our 2% non-fuel O&M reduction target, which brings me to my story of the month. This month's story illustrates how our regional service model together with our performance playbook and lean operating system is helping improve the customer experience while we eliminate waste and cost in our work processes. In the North Coast region field operations teams are improving upon a common sense approach that has worked in a lot of our programs bundling work. What's different now is that the teams are working across various branches of electric gas systems inspections and vegetation management to coordinate many types of work, not just bundling similar work in siloed programs as we've done in the past. Cross-functional work bundling allows crews to do more work under the same planned outage line clearance, reducing the cost of switching and grid operations and improving overall reliability. During Q2, my coworkers planned and executed 12 jobs under just one planned outage near the town of Willits. Rather than impacting 100-plus customers multiple times over the year, we did it all in just one go. That's one outage, one day of traffic lane closures, one batch of notifications and only one visit. This goes to show you what's possible when we put the customer at the center of our operations. So far this year, we estimate savings of $0.5 million and 800-plus hours when we did not have to deenergize our customers. This is just the tip of the iceberg and something we are working actively to scale up across all regions, proving we can deliver an improved customer experience while cutting costs all at the same time. This is all part of the momentum we're building here at PG&E. And with that, I'll turn it over to Carolyn.
Carolyn Burke:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning everybody. As Patti mentioned, we are on track to deliver our 2023 financial commitments. Today, we are reaffirming EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2023 and 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. We're also reaffirming our commitment to no new equity in 2023 or 2024. This morning, I'll cover three main topics with you
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Carolyn. Before we take your questions, I wanted to take a quick moment to highlight two other pieces of news from PG&E this week. Yesterday, we issued our annual corporate sustainability report which outlines major strides we've made towards the triple bottom-line of serving people the planet and California's prosperity. Using statistics and stories the report details meaningful action we took last year in service of our home towns throughout Northern and Central California. Second as highlighted here on slide 15 we hosted our inaugural Innovation Summit earlier this week drawing over 2,000 in-person and virtual participants from venture capital, technolog, academic and financial world. Risk mitigation in particular wildfire has rightly been Job one and our main priority. At the same time, our California service area is at the very forefront of the energy transition given our state's bold vision for the future. With this in mind, we created our innovation research and development team to capitalize on breakthrough opportunities drawing on the external innovation ecosystem to inspire bold new ideas for safety and our operations. For example, during the Innovation Summit, we featured a first-of-its-kind version of Schneider's electric distribution energy management system operating on the Microsoft Cloud. On the topic of innovation, I'm also pleased to announce that the XPrize competition featured at our Investor Day has already received interest from 120 individual teams out of 32 different countries. Talk about breakthrough opportunities. The objective of this competition is to be able to pinpoint ignitions from space within 60 seconds or less and autonomously suppress wildfires within 10 minutes. I'm excited to see what these brilliant minds produce. I'll wrap up on Slide 16, by saying we feel good about the progress we are making, mitigating physical and financial risk. We're confident in the protections we have in place for this wildfire season. And we see several catalysts ahead for investors including restoration of our common stock dividend and a final decision in our 2023 GRC. We see the progress and feel the momentum. We hope you do too. With that operator, please open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning. Patti I just wanted to start off with a question on the GRC timing. It seems there's obviously some filing still happening. They're coming through and the PD still isn't issued as you kind of highlighted there. I guess, what's your level of confidence here in getting a PD and what is a potential delay in the PD due as we're thinking about disclosures and when you recognize earnings and update guidance including obviously, enactment of official dividend policy? Thanks.
Patti Poppe:
Okay, Shar. Thank you for that's a very robust question. I'm going to get right at it. First let me remind you that our GRC is 85% safety, reliability, resilience work. Our customers are demanding this work of us and our stakeholders are really supportive of us doing this work. So I think that bodes very well for our GRC and its outcome. It's important that we remain aligned with our regulators to deliver on a very important regulatory outcome that is so important and so good for customers. So I'll just start with that. But just – I'll just back up and remind you about the timing. So the CPUC voted to extend the GRC deadline from June 30 to December 30. They needed that calendar so that the final decision could be issued still in Q3, which they have been pretty clear that it was going to be issued in Q3. So while the CPUC hasn't issued their proposed decision, the July 13 order included language that reinforced the timing. The commission, in fact the quote is that the commission still anticipates consideration of this matter on a commission agenda in the third quarter of 2023. We were very grateful for that reiteration of the importance of the timing. I think it's been really clear. We've been working closely with our stakeholders here in the state, how important it is that we get a timely GRC sold that. We can do this very important necessary work for our customers. So all that to say, obviously, we plan conservatively on the expected outcomes and we've got a plan that we think is defendable and is going to be welcomed by the commission but we're also putting in our contingency planning to make sure we're ready. Now I'll just close out with your final question about the implications for the dividend. I think Carolyn was very clear in our prepared remarks about the importance of the dividend, why we know that it's important to establish a dividend. But what's most important is that we're doing the right work for customers and we've got the GRC is obviously, the most important that we have a good GRC outcome. Now we're in the final stages of that GRC process. We've said that the dividend is dependent on regulatory timing, and I don't want to get ahead of ourselves at all here. We're going to watch how that plays out, and then we'll give an update and let you know the status on the third quarter call.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. Fantastic. And then just lastly for me, Patti. Just maybe briefly touching on sort of your expectations for safety certification and the WMP approvals. I mean OEIS and the stakeholders still kind of scrutinize the details of the plan. Are there concerns, that caused you to engage remediating action? Or is that already in plan? And how is the time line shifting as the WMP moves towards PD and you plan to file the 23 certification in September. Thanks.
A – Patti Poppe:
Yes. Well, one of the things I'm really going to appreciate is this WMP process. It's an open and transparent proceeding. It allows us to align, with our regulator and frankly to get the best ideas on the table. We welcome that alignment and we welcome the feedback, because that will make us better. And anything we can do to make the system safer, faster is important to us. Now in the revision notice that the OEIS issued, it identified eight critical issues and we have until August 7, we'll be filing our revision -- our response to that revision notice. It had some -- about three main themes, I would suggest in their feedback. They're asking for additional granularity like, for example, quarterly data through 2024 on vegetation management targets. That's a reasonable request, and we can provide that feedback. Additional information on proposals and alternatives considered like, for example, the changing in our underground mile timing when we might make those revisions, and more insights to understand our objectives in both the three-year filing, but also the 10-year look, which all of that is -- they're good questions and we can have good healthy dialogue, with the safety regulators here in the state to make sure that we've got alignment there. So we'll submit that revision on August 7, and we expect a draft decision from OEIS at the end of September. Now the safety certificate filing date is set as prior to September 13, 2023. So, we'll make that filing even if we don't have a final decision on the WMP, and then the OEIS has 90 days to review our safety certificate application.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. Big congrats, Patti on the execution. It's pretty -- it's very noticeable. Thanks so much.
A – Patti Poppe:
Thank you. Shar
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Q – David Arcaro:
Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question.
A – Patti Poppe:
Hi, David.
Q – David Arcaro:
I was just wondering if you could give an update on, how the -- I guess the environmental backdrop is shaping up so far during the summer and into fire season. Just is the expectation still or are the have the conditions changed at all in terms of expectations, when you're looking at fuel out there moisture content, just outlook into the rest of the summer and how this year's kind of fire season is shaping up right now? Thanks.
A – Patti Poppe:
Yes. So, a couple of things. One, of course all of that moisture that we got in the first quarter of this year certainly has I would say, delayed the start of fire season. We had a good moisture. But as you've indicated, David, it also provides for additional fuel in the form of grasses and grasses to be managed. The important thing to know, and what we're really trying to convey in our report today and really making the distinction about how far we've come since 2017, we are ready no matter what. We are ready, no matter the conditions. Our Hawk 24/7 365 is utilizing all of those cameras and weather stations we know precisely the conditions and our enhanced power line safety settings went into automatic mode on July 1. We deactivate those when conditions warrant. So there are certain cases where we do know we have high moisture and in particular polygon in our service area. And so we deactivate the EPSS but we have EPSS ready and able every single day of the year. And so for us we're just using this as an opportunity to be wildfire ready no matter the conditions. All that being said we're having great performance. Our EPSS settings continue to be an extraordinary risk mitigation tool for us. In fact this year our ignitions year-to-date are 50% less than what they were last year. And last year was an extraordinary year of performance as well. So we're feeling very good about our posture and we're ready.
David Arcaro :
That's clear. Thanks for that color. And then separately looking at the $5 billion bucket of potential incremental upside CapEx opportunities you've added a bit more tail around where some of those opportunities could come from. I'm wondering if you could give us a sense of if there are any near-term opportunities to pull any of those programs into the CapEx plan or just a little bit of color around the cadence and the timing for when those opportunities start to crystallize?
Carolyn Burke :
Yes, David I'll take that question. So I would say the two areas that we see the most potential in terms of working our model to see that they're going to be affordable is in the transmission area and new customer connections. So we are looking at partnerships. We are looking at additional new customer -- we've made a significant progress in terms of looking at our overall process of bringing those connections online sooner. And so there's -- I would say those are the two areas that you could expect more insight in over the coming earnings calls.
Patti Poppe:
And David all of that is contingent upon affordability for our customers and do we in fact have headroom to go ahead and add additional capital. And so all of our waste elimination work all of our cost savings work some of our big strategic efforts to reduce cost and get more streamlined and then the little itty-bitty ideas that all add up give us an opportunity to then deploy that more -- that capital for the benefit of customers when we can be sure that they can afford it. So that's always the equation that we're running.
David Arcaro :
Understood. Makes sense. Thanks so much.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Hey, good morning, Patti and Carolyn. Thanks for the time.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Hey, good morning. Just following up on the last one actually I'll pivot to this direction. The DOE headlines here. Maybe we could talk a little bit about how you think about is that incremental or not? How do you think about that in terms of the projects that you already have underway versus being incremental? Does that displace some other projects? Just kind of think about the financial impacts of pulling down on that DOE money obviously clearly beneficial in any regard for customers?
Carolyn Burke :
Julien, this is Carolyn. Thank you for the question. So it is not incremental. We believe that we're going to use this financing to fund the programs that we have already in place. We have a very well laid out plan. We have more than enough to invest into our system. And so this financing is simply going to allow it to be more efficiently financed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. All right. Fair enough. I'll leave that there. Maybe just tipping to another subject real quickly here, how do you think just the capital structure, again this is more a financing -- do you no longer need or expect to need the capital structure waivers, you think about kind of a normalization, we talk about dividend today, do you think about capital structure tomorrow, et cetera?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. I think -- two things just to recall I mean I'll reiterate the no new equity in 2023 and 2024. And we have a commitment to pay down the parent debt of about $2 billion plus by 2026. So in terms of that waiver, we're monitoring that. We're on track. We've made improvements over the last couple of years and we continue to foresee those improvements. And we don't -- if the waiver is in place until we'll be able to make that waiver until June 2025, yeah, I thought it was 2025 sorry. Couldn't it remember it was June or March?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Wonderful. Okay, excellent. I’ll leave it there. I will see you guys soon. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Great. Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, good morning everybody.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Hi. In terms of the dividend, are there any other regulatory items outside of the GRC that could impact the timing of reinstating the dividend with the third quarter call or some footnotes in your prepared comments? I just wanted to clarify what was being intended with that statement.
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. No it's primarily the GRC, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Okay, great. And then on the heels of the Innovation Summit, curious your latest thinking about how artificial intelligence could impact your business both from a cost, capital or risk standpoint going forward and what work streams do you have to incorporate that?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. Ryan that innovation summit was just spectacular. We opened the doors to the future with thousands of people participated in that event from all across the globe. We have people signed in from Australia and Israel and UK and all across the country here in the US as well. We have standing room only here in California. It was very fun to see the appetite to support our True North strategy and the key enablers to a pathway to the clean energy transition and a robust gas system. It was really exciting to imagine how all those partnerships might emerge from that date. And I'm glad so many investors signed on for that day as well. But back to your question about AI. First of all, I'll remind you that we've been using artificial intelligence already. And in fact in 2019, we introduced our wildfire spread model. That's the technology [ph] platform that helps us forecast where our highest risks are and what a wildfire spread might look like. We operationalize that artificial intelligence in 2021. And we've been utilizing that routinely. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. We're also using AI for asset health as we do our inspections and then coordinating between drone inspections and data collection. It's very hard for humans to review photos. We take all of these images and humans can make an error, it's a judgment. But an artificial intelligence platform that can review all of those visual images can truly automate our response and then build into our asset health plan what next might fail and be predictive in that way. And so we're pretty excited about the application of AI to continue our system safety efforts and our asset health. But then there are simple things, like just automating simple back office processes and administrative tasks. So we're playing with that. And then things like customer service. And so we're really excited about the applications of artificial intelligence. We know there's, things to be cautious about and we're working to make sure that any platform that we use protects our customers' data and any kind of company secret data. We make sure that that safety exists for our data as well as our physical assets, so, much more to come in AI for PG&E for sure.
Ryan Levine:
Great. Looks forward to it, I guess in terms of the DOE loan congratulations on receiving that subsidized capital. Outside of federal dollars, are there any state programs that you're looking to tap into to help mitigate bill impact through different California initiatives?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. We have several California initiatives. So things like the California Climate Credit. We accelerated that earlier this year so that it was during the heating season to offset some of those gas charges that were so high at the beginning of the year. We have our Income Qualified Customer Assistance Programs. We call that CARE. It's a very robust income-qualified program to help customers, who don't have the ability to always afford their utility bill. We make sure that they're cared for and have the energy that they need. There's a California Arrearage Payment Program, where for example, more than 300,000 customers who were experiencing financial hardships during the pandemic, received an automatic one-time build credit in February of 2023. And then, back to your innovation point, earlier Ryan, the $83 million EPIC program is a source of funding so that we can invest in doing new technologies that make it safer and more affordable for customers in the future. So that's a really exciting part of our portfolio too that benefits customers.
Ryan Levine:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Patti Poppe:
You're welcome. Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO Ms. Patti Poppe.
Patti Poppe:
Well, thank you everyone for joining us today. I know you've got a busy calendar. And we're grateful for your time. And we look forward to seeing you soon. Be safe out there.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PG&E Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jonathan Arnold, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold :
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; Chris Foster, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Carolyn Burke, our Executive Vice President of Finance, who will step into the CFO role later today. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors, which could affect our actual financial results, are described on the second page of today's first quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. The slides, along with other relevant information, can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, which was released earlier today. And with that, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe :
Thank you, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to begin by noting that this will be Chris Foster's last earnings call with PG&E. Thank you, Chris, for your commitment and service to our company over the past 11 years. Since we announced our CFO transition in March, Chris has worked tirelessly to ensure an orderly transition to Carolyn Burke, who will formally take over as our CFO later today. So thank you, Chris, for your friendship, your leadership and your dedication to serving our customers and investors. And a formal welcome to Carolyn, who brings a wealth of financial experience to PG&E as we continue on our journey remaking the company as a top-performing regulated utility. You'll all have opportunities to get to know Carolyn at upcoming events, including at our Investor Day in California later this month. We know you have a lot of calls occurring today. And since we've had a strong quarter, and we'll be seeing many of you in just a couple of weeks, we'll be crisp and to the point. Let's get started. Turning to our results on Slide 3. You'll see we reported first quarter 2023 non-GAAP core earnings of $0.29 per share. This result keeps us on track with our plan for the year. One timing item to consider is our 2023 general rate case. As is common with California GRCs, we have a memo account in place, which will allow for new rates to be implemented retroactive to January 1, meaning that after the final decision is reached, we'd expect to begin recognizing the GRC outcome along with the prior quarter's catch-up. The case schedule calls for a proposed decision in the second quarter and a final decision in the third quarter. We continue to communicate with all stakeholders to how important it is to have a timely decision in order to have the resources we need to deliver for our customers. Also today, we reaffirm our full year 2023 core EPS guidance of $1.19 to $1.23, which at the midpoint represents an increase of 10% over 2022. We also reaffirm our previously stated longer-term targets of at least 10% core EPS growth in 2024 and at least 9% for 2025 and 2026. Also unchanged is our plan for no new equity issuance through 2024. As we've said before, we'll work to manage the business through ups and downs like weather, regulatory timing, interest rates and inflation, while delivering the safety and reliability investments that our customers need and the consistent financial results our investors expect. Here on Slide 4, I'll review some of the highlights and proof points as we continue to make progress on mitigating risk, both physical and financial. On wildfire risk mitigation, we filed our 2023 Wildfire Mitigation Plan at the end of March, which further builds on the layers of protection approach from our 2022 plan. Record winter rains and snowfall have left our hydro assets in a stronger position than they've been in for some years. CEMA, our Catastrophic Event Memorandum Account is one of the constructive features of the California regulatory model. It enables us to focus on serving customers when they need us the most, while we track and defer for future recovery much of the costs associated with these historic weather events. We recorded several hundred million dollars of repair and restoration work to the CEMA account between December and March. Meanwhile, our customer restoration efforts and storm response have been well received in our communities, and our performance benefited from the investments we have made in technology, situational awareness and emergency response coordination. We've also continued to see more constructive policy outcomes, building on last year's passage of legislation supporting our establishment of a 10-year undergrounding plan as well as the state's decision to extend the life of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant. Highlights in the first quarter include our wildfire self-insurance plan, which enjoyed unusually strong support from interveners. We were also pleased to receive the Nuclear Regulatory Commission waiver, allowing our two Diablo Canyon nuclear units to continue operating beyond their current license expiration date, while the NRC is considering the renewal applications. We expect to file our applications with the NRC by year-end. And most recently, in the past week, we were encouraged by the proposed decision issued in our 2022 WMCE proceeding. This would grant our full request for $1.1 billion of interim rate relief while allowing for collection over 12 months, also as requested. The PD could be voted out by the CPUC as soon as the June 8 meeting, and we will be advocating for a timely adoption so that customer benefits can be realized. These benefits include millions of dollars in customer financing savings as well as providing cash funding to accelerate investment. This will facilitate us delivering needed safety, reliability and customer connections work. I'm also happy to report on continued progress mitigating financial risk. Our simple, affordable model and deployment of waste elimination, the fifth play of our lean operating system, enables improving the customer experience while keeping us on track to deliver our 2% annual O&M savings in spite of weather and inflation. Also, in support of customer affordability, we worked with the state to offset commodity price increases on winter bills with an acceleration of the annual California Climate Credit. Overall, during the winter gas commodity price run-ups, our procurement team was able to save customers over $1 billion through a series of thoughtful measures including a diversified portfolio that includes interstate pipeline capacity reaching back to the supply basins, natural gas storage and financial hedging. Turning to Slide 5. We continue to estimate that our layers of protection have mitigated over 90% of wildfire risk through the combination of inspection, physical hardening, our Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings, Public Safety Power Shutoffs and improved situational awareness and response. While 2022 did not bring the typical high-wind events that would trigger PSPS, we did see an increase of over 30% in high fire risk base given the significant drought conditions. Despite this increased risk, our EPSS program resulted in a reduction of 69% in CPUC reportable admissions, along with 99% fewer acres impacted for EPSS-enabled mines versus the pre-EPSS baseline or 2018 to 2020 average. Our 2023 wildfire mitigation plan builds on these core elements and will also see us deploy additional operational mitigations such as partial voltage detection, which leverages our existing smart meters and our down conductor detection with a plan to install over 1,100 new enabled devices on the system by the end of 2023, translating to over 75% coverage of high fire risk areas. Other programs being expanded for 2023 include our transmission pole clearing, our transmission operational controls, and further measures, including EPS sectionalizing to reduce customer impact. We expect to be sharing more with you on the incremental risk reduction associated with these programs at our Investor Day later in the month. Slide 6 is a reminder of our simple, affordable model, which continues to sit at the heart of our customer value proposition. We remain on track to deliver on at least 2% annual non-fuel O&M reduction with our wildfire self-insurance and incremental vegetation management savings, providing line of sight on continuing to offset inflationary pressures this year. That's a good moment to bring up my story in the month, which has to do with revisiting the way we approach our work, and in this case, in our undergrounding program and how we're eliminating waste in our process. Historically, hitting these internal standards had required our underground electric lines to have at least 36 inches of cover. Upon revisiting this approach and reviewing regulations and the practices of other undergrounding utilities, we determined that 36 inches of cover is not required in most places, and there's little evidence that incrementally deeper conduits are meaningfully safer or more reliable than slightly shallower conduits. Therefore, in Q4 of last year, we revised our standard to only require 30 inches of cover, unless, of course, otherwise directed by permitting authority. While these may not seem like much, this 6-inch change in depth reduces the labor hours required to install our underground conduits and reduces the amount of spoils created during our trenching activities by approximately 17%. We're estimating that this change of 6 inches will save at least $25 million in 2023 alone. That's lower cost for our customers for the same ultimate value, getting our electric distribution lines underground and permanently reducing the risk. This is just the beginning of our waste elimination efforts. We're benchmarking with peers and reviewing where it's appropriate to put the conduits 24 inches deep, another 6 inches of potential savings, and we're analyzing the entire undergrounding delivery process through a value stream mapping exercise to identify further opportunities for efficiency, better customer and co-worker engagement and even more waste elimination. So many practices in large organizations like ours get memorialized and standardized into waste. Our fifth play and our focus on it will unlock value for customers in large and small ways for decades to come. Slide 7 recaps some of the key regulatory and policy catalysts we have in front of us for 2023. The one minor change is for Pacific Generation, where the ALJ recently added about a month to the schedule in response to request for additional time from the interveners. This will likely push the proposed decision from late 2023 into early 2024. And the sooner we get a final decision, the sooner we can bring the expected benefits to our customers. We know there is a lot on the plate at the CPUC at this time. We also know that we want what they want, a safer and more reliable system, which has enabled with timely approval of necessary infrastructure investments. In the meantime, we're improving our processes to make every dollar go further and building the case for the right investments to meet customers' expectations. I'll end here on Slide 8, with our report card reflecting on-track status for all of our operational and financial targets. I'm pleased to say we're on track to deliver on our commitments to both our customers and our investors despite the early challenges from winter storms. We are confident we have built a resilient conservative plan, which is designed to absorb the ups and downs of the business and the markets. As I like to say, we'll ride that roller coaster so you don't have to. And before I hand this over to Chris and Carolyn, I'll leave you with two additional notes on the financial front. First, we look forward to being eligible to reinstate our common dividend later this year, which we view as a key step in our return to financial health and essential for attracting the capital we need to deliver for our customers. As we announced on the year-end call, we expect to hit the required earnings level in the third quarter. Second, we've been encouraged to see the Fire Victim Trust continuing to monetize their stockholding and at growing values. The trust now owns around 6% of our stock, and as of last week, had distributed over $9 billion to their beneficiaries. And now I'll hand it over to Chris for some financial highlights.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. Today, we are reaffirming EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2023 and 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. We're also reaffirming our commitment to no equity in 2023 or 2024. As Patti mentioned, we are on track to deliver our 2023 financial commitment. This morning, I'm pleased to have Carolyn Burke joining me for the financial update. We plan to cover three main topics with you. To start, I'll review the drivers of our Q1 2023 financial results and review the key performance factors that we expect to see in the remaining nine months to deliver our full year 10% EPS growth. Carolyn and I will next provide a few highlights on regulatory, legal and legislative items. And Carolyn will then close this out with the reiteration of our value proposition. Let's start on Slide 9. On this slide, we're showing our results for the quarter and drivers we're forecasting for the next nine months as we locked our full year guidance of $1.19 to $1.23. For the first quarter, our results came in at $0.29. Versus first quarter last year, you see $0.02 of benefit from lower operating and maintenance costs, partially offset by $0.01 of redeployment. The lower O&M spend is a result of the storms Patti spoke about earlier. With many of our co-workers activated on storm duty, less planned core work was completed during the first quarter of this year. This allowed us to redeploy funds to operational and enterprise programs. This nimble shift in priorities and execution is made possible by the capabilities we're building here at PG&E, enabled by our lean operating system. Finally, you'll see we're calling out $0.02 of other, including some timing items. What you don't see is a meaningful impact directly from the storms. That is because of our long-established CEMA mechanism, which is an important constructive component of California utility regulation. Another driver not reflected explicitly, but to keep in mind, is a benefit from customer capital investment or rate base growth. As you know, a final decision in our 2023 general rate case is expected in the third quarter of this year. Consistent with past cases that Patti described, we will be allowed to record those catch-up revenues for prior quarters once the final decision is received. We're also reiterating our commitment and consistent focus on executing annual 2% non-fuel O&M reductions. I'll remind you that we're planning conservatively and plan to deliver on target, no more, no less, redeploying any excess back into the business for the benefit of our customers. On Slide 10, our customer capital investments have not changed from year-end. We have tremendous opportunities to invest capital into our system for the benefit of customers to advance California's ambitious climate goals and support growing customer demand with the adoption of electric vehicles. This growth benefits our customers and our investors while providing additional cash flow from operations. And our simple, affordable model is how we plan to make this manageable for customers. Moving to Slide 11. In 2022, we exceeded our non-fuel O&M cost reduction target, taking 3% out of the business despite inflation. We use those savings to serve customers and derisk the 2023 plan, which assumes continued inflationary cost pressures. As I mentioned on the year-end call, we see more opportunities for customers ahead, and the team is just getting started in terms of finding cost savings and eliminating waste. Let's move to Slide 12. We believe performance is power. So we intend to continue to deliver on operational commitments serving our customers better and making our systems safer every day. We expect that delivering these results will help us achieve better regulatory and financial outcomes, and California has the regulatory structure in place to help us do just that. Starting at the top of the slide, our 2023 cost of capital is final at 10%. This decision covers the three-year period through 2025, providing certainty for our investors. The cost of capital decision also continues to provide for a trigger mechanism. Should interest rates remain where they are and the mechanism trigger, we would intend to file with the commission for an upward adjustment, consistent with the mechanism. Next is our pending 2023 general rate case. As a reminder, we've already reached resolution on our wildfire self-insurance settlement, saving customers up to $1.8 billion through 2026. Worth noting is that over 85% of our requested revenue requirement increase seeks to mitigate risk in our gas and electric operations and deliver a level of safety that our customers expect and deserve. Our Pacific Generation allocation continues to move through the CPUC process. A final decision is now expected in early 2024 based on the schedule update from the ALJ. We are gearing up to launch the marketing on a parallel path, and we expect to do so this quarter. I'll next cover our pending wildfire-related cost recovery applications. With our 2020 WMCE costs now in rates, the net unresolved balance at the end of the first quarter is approximately $4.8 billion. We've settled our 2021 WMCE, resolving all elements apart from the cost in our Vegetation Management Balancing Account. As Patti mentioned, in the past week, we were pleased to receive a proposed decision recommending that we be granted 100% of the interim rate relief we had requested in our 2022 WMCE application. This amounts to some $1.1 billion over 12 months. This will be a constructive recognition of the importance of timely cash recovery, a key focus for the company. Not only would this outcome reduce financing costs for customers, it would also result in tangible work being executed sooner than would otherwise have been the case, including in the current year. The recently published schedule calls for a final decision in the overall 2022 WMCE application as soon as Q1 of next year. We're advocating for timely resolution in all of our WMCE cases. Resulting cash flow will allow us to accelerate our progress toward improved balance sheet health, improving FFO to debt and providing resources to enable us to meet customer growth demands on the system faster. It's my pleasure to now hand it over to Carolyn Burke.
Carolyn Burke :
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everybody. At the bottom of this slide, we're highlighting some milestones and next steps of the two key pieces of state legislation passed last year. In addition to the DOE confirmation that Diablo Canyon is eligible for federal funding through the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, we were also granted a waiver by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to continue operating the units beyond their current license expiration dates, while we work through the full relicensing process. Also during the first quarter, the California Energy Commission in consultation with the CAISO and CPUC issued a needs determination, supporting extended operations at Diablo Canyon to provide electric system reliability in the state. Finally, in terms of the undergrounding, I'll remind you that the pending 2023 general rate case includes our request through 2026, as does our recently filed 2023 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. We will be prepared to file our 10-year plan later this year, dependent on the guidance from the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety. Once we file, OEIS will have nine months to review before going to the CPUC, who will also have nine months for their review. Now as many of you know, California is my new home. As shown here on Slide 13, I'm quickly and happily learning that California's regulatory construct makes this a great place to do business. In addition to the protections provided for under Assembly Bill 1054 and the CEMA tracker Patti and Chris discussed earlier, PG&E also benefits from decoupled rates and a three-year cost of capital set independently from a four-year forward-looking rate case. And this is just to name a few. Our strong regulatory environment is an advantage that we will never take for granted. As Chris mentioned, performance is power, and we know we must perform. We understand that affordable customer bills help us not only mitigate financial and regulatory risk, but also importantly, help us as we continue to build trust with our customers, our regulators and our policymakers. As the incoming CFO, I intend to continue to build upon the sector-differentiating simple, affordable model that Patti and Chris put in place. The implementation of our lean operating system is helping PG&E improve the customer experience, reduce O&M, enhance capital work plan throughput and quite simply, making PG&E a more enjoyable place to work for and with. This year, as part of engaging our co-workers on a lean method of waste elimination, we've established our waste elimination center. We are already tracking over 200 projects across the enterprise, and we're finding common themes throughout the business. First, there's a whole lot of over-processing. And second, there's a whole lot of defects requiring rework. That means a whole lot of opportunity. My co-workers are excited about tackling these issues and projects and driving improvements for the benefit of our customers. We're going after big and small opportunities, some simple and some complex. Take this simple example of customer mailings. U.S. postage rates are expected to increase about 7% this year. While we have no control over these mailing rates, we do control what we send to our customers. This waste elimination project is looking at what communications we can digitize or eliminate altogether. If we just eliminated one mailing per household per year, that's approximately $4 million in saved postage. As you can imagine, we're not stopping with just one mailing, and this elimination project saves more than just postage. As Patti mentioned earlier, we're going after large waste elimination projects, too, including in our undergrounding program. The team is excited to show you more examples out in the yard during our Investor Day in May, where we'll demonstrate waste elimination driving real unit cost savings and making permanent risk reduction affordable for our customers. I'll end here on Slide 14 by saying that our value proposition is strong, and it's improving every day. We are progressing towards meeting the common stock dividend eligibility threshold later this year. As a reminder, before declaring a dividend, we will first need to recognize a cumulative $6.2 billion in non-GAAP core earnings since our emergence from Chapter 11, starting from the third quarter 2020. For this purpose, non-GAAP core earnings means GAAP earnings adjusted for certain noncore items as described in our plan of reorganization. Our plan currently shows us reaching eligibility during the third quarter, although this remains subject to assumptions, including the timing of regulatory decisions. I'll remind you that regardless of timing, we plan to recommend to the Board that we start with a small dividend initially, feathering in growth over time. I'll leave you with this
Chris Foster:
Thanks, Carolyn. I'd like to say it's been my privilege to serve as CFO here at PG&E and my time in prior roles over the last 11.5 years. I'm really proud of what we've accomplished, and we've built very strong five and 10-year plans. The emphasis now shifts to sound execution, which I have the utmost confidence this team can achieve. I'm also very confident that I'm handing the baton over to a very talented leader who we have shortly come to know as the perfect choice to take PG&E's finance organization through its next chapter. With that, I'll hand it back to Patti to wrap.
Patricia Poppe :
Thank you again, Chris, and welcome, Carol. In closing, we are solidly on track for another year of consistent performance in 2023. We look forward to sharing more details with you on our progress and our confidence in the outlook at our California Investor Day on May 24 and May 25. While we do have a virtual option for the main slide presentation, for those of you wondering whether to make the trip, there will be a lot more for you to see and experience outside of that webcast window. We'll be showcasing some of our key technology, including wildfire risk reduction, EPSS and undergrounding. We also want to give you a better understanding of why we're confident we can execute our plan, including our 10,000-mile undergrounding program. At our in-person event, you'll also get to hear directly from key California stakeholders, including policymakers, customers and other critical partners as we continue writing the next chapter of the PG&E story. We really hope to see you here in this great state of California at the end of the month. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Steve Fleishman at Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman :
So just first, any color in thinking on the situation going into this fire season just with all the rains and et cetera, just how you're thinking about how things stand versus the last few years?
Patricia Poppe :
Yes. It's a great question, Steve. I know a lot of people have been wondering this. So I'll share a couple of things. One, we know that in some ways, the storms were beneficial from the perspective that trees -- aged and dying trees came down and at a time when fire was not a risk. So certainly, that was an advantage. But we also know that the fuels -- the grasses have a rich crop this year. But here's the thing that I want investors to really understand is the mitigations that we've put in place and the technology that we have deployed with EPSS gives us the ability to know in 2-kilometer blocks across our entire service area, what the conditions are real time, whether that's fuel moisture levels, wind conditions, temperatures, et cetera, grass levels, we know our system. And so EPSS puts us in a position to, regardless of weather and regardless of conditions, be prepared and derisk the system. It gives me a lot of confidence heading into wildfire season that we are prepared.
Steven Fleishman :
Okay. Good. And then second question, just I have to ask again on the Fire Victim Trust, any sense on their kind of strategy or timing from here? In theory, I guess, you're close to the end? Any sense on that?
Patricia Poppe :
Well, I would suggest we are close to the end, Steve. They're less -- well, there are just over a 6% holder today. And in their annual report, they've described their intentions. And we know that it's just less and less of a factor for us, and we're gratified. And I think the agreement worked out well for the beneficiaries as we've been -- as they've been able to sell their shares at an increasing value. So we feel like we've done our part to make it right, which has been a big priority for us.
Steven Fleishman :
Makes sense. Great. And then just lastly on the GRC and the proposed decision. Just are you getting any sense of the timing within the second quarter and just the likelihood that it will actually come out in the second quarter and not get delayed?
Patricia Poppe :
Well, I think we've been really clear with our stakeholders, and I do appreciate that the commission has a lot on their plate, but we all understand, and they want what we want, which is a safe system, which requires investment in the infrastructure. We just continue to reinforce, the timely outcome on the GRC is really important, and we expect that they'll keep to the timing that they've published.
Operator:
We'll move next to Shar Pourreza at Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Just wanted to -- Patti, if it's okay, just start off on the dividend, especially as we're getting closer to that eligibility threshold. I guess, what adjustments should we be thinking about beyond non-GAAP to get to that $6.4 billion net income threshold? And then more importantly, just in terms of timing, how long do you kind of anticipate it would take after meeting the threshold to actually kind of initiate the dividend? So if you meet the threshold in 3Q, would you have a tentative plan in place for framework, Board approval, et cetera? Or is there more back and forth that you anticipate as we think about the actual payment date?
Carolyn Burke :
Yes. Sure. This is Carolyn. I'll take that question. So we've been pretty consistent, as you know, that we would -- we do expect to meet that eligibility in the third quarter. Our current plan suggests -- continues to suggest that. On the adjustments, so our plan of reorganization has a very specific calculation for the dividend eligible earnings. And it is different from what we report as non-GAAP core earnings. There are some very specific line item adjustments. And our IR team would be happy to walk through that methodology with you separately. But I just want to make sure that you know that it is separate. It is different. On a practical matter, we want to have our audited financial statements to be able to support the eligibility of that calculation. So the earliest our Board would have the opportunity to declare a dividend would be with our third quarter earnings call. So that's the expectation at this point in time. Of course, it is subject, I will just say, to the GRC decision, some various regulatory decisions that we're expecting in the third quarter.
Patricia Poppe :
Yes. And Shar, this is Patti. I'll just pile on here with Carolyn, our capital allocation decisions are always about investing in the system, making sure that our priority is to make the system safer, faster, meet the needs of our customers. And so we're going to continue to balance that as we factor in the decision about size and pacing of growth.
Shahriar Pourreza :
Got it. And then just on the -- now that the undergrounding program is in place, PMO is engaged. I guess, how are your thoughts evolving around longer-term undergrounding plan? Any expectations for that filing? And do you see any constructive variances versus the last update in the GRC.
Patricia Poppe :
Yes. We're getting excited as we continue to make progress and build out this program. It's such an exciting part of the company, and the team leading it is just doing an incredible job learning new things and getting best practices from across other utilities and getting started. And so we're excited to file that 10-year plan. We expect that the 10-year plan will very much reflect our GRC and the four years that were included in our GRC. And just to remind that, that pending filing shows us doubling our mileage here in 2023 getting to 350 miles, ramping up to 450 miles in 2024, 550 miles in 2026 and then 750 miles in 2026 -- 550 miles, sorry, in 2025 and 750 miles in 2026. That ramp will be consistent with what we filed in our 10-year plan. And so based on the timing of that 10-year plan, we are waiting on feedback from OEIS on when they will receive that plan. We're ready to file that when they are ready to receive it. They're staffing up so that they can receive it. But I do think it's important for people to know that the first four years, including this year -- or the next four years, including this year, are reflected already in our GRC, including, obviously, the cost recovery associated with that. And so depending on the timing of the OEIS' availability to receive our 10-year plan has little bearing on the initial years of our undergrounding program.
Operator:
And we'll go next to Julien Dumoulin-Smith at Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Let me start off with this. I mean, you guys have this Analyst Day coming up, and I want to call out, you have your earnings growth rate through '26, and you guys have been very careful to acknowledge the specific discrete growth rates in each year. You have your rate base growth through '27, how are you thinking about addressing if at all, some of the earnings considerations at the upcoming Analyst Day? I know that you've really placed an emphasis here on understanding the core of what you guys are doing, specifically in undergrounding at this Analyst Day. But I just wanted to call out that discrepancy between RAB and earnings growth, for instance, heading into this Analyst Day, if there were any expectations to set.
Patricia Poppe :
Well, Julien, we take great pride in giving you multiple years' forward expectations on earnings. I would suggest that there are some -- especially with the GRC coming out late after Investor Day that it's unlikely that we'll forecast any further than 2026, but we're pretty proud of the fact that we're giving you guidance through 2026.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
No. I hear you. I just wanted to test that. I appreciate it though. I very much appreciate the considerations they're in. separately and related here, can we talk about the Pacific Gen sale, and I understand and saw in your prepared remarks here some of the tweaks and timing with the ALJ, et cetera. But can you specifically address a little bit more your expectations today, where the conversations are with potential buyers and any of the consternation that might be coming up through the process as well from the regulatory side?
Carolyn Burke :
Yes. No, I'll take that. This is Carolyn. We've actually seen pretty robust inbound interest in the asset. And so we do expect a fairly competitive process. I will say that the opportunity seems to be most interesting to those long-term infrastructure investors, but we have seen a wide range of interest. The portfolio, obviously, is pretty unique in that it offers exposure to the full cost of service, regulated clean generation in California and without the direct risk of wildfires. So it's pretty attractive. And timing, as we've already mentioned, I mean it's really -- we do -- we've updated that. We're going to be going to market with investor -- with our process coming up in June is the expectation, so early summer. And then we would still expect that process to go forward through the balance of the year, simultaneous with the regulatory process and wouldn't expect to be closing until the first half of 2024.
Operator:
We'll go next to Anthony Crowdell at Mizuho Securities.
Anthony Crowdell :
Just hopefully two quick questions. One on the cost of capital triggering mechanism. I believe that utility is going to file if rates stay where they are for an increase in cost of capital for 2024. Do you expect parties to follow for a waiver, similar to, I think, what the utility sale for a waiver for in 2022 for the mechanism not to get reset lower? Is there an expectation that you do get parties also filing for a waiver?
Chris Foster:
No, Anthony, I think it's really a couple of considerations. First, there's a phase 2 piece of this to keep in mind. So the commission is examining both the trigger itself and its treatment as well as an issue rerate, which is the yield spread adjustment in particular. So those are two that will be considered in the phase 2. There's not actually a specific time frame around it. Stepping back and looking at the core of your question, I think you should assume from our standpoint that we would be filing for the upward adjustment, really consistent with that mechanism, Hard for me to predict where other interveners would come in. But at this stage, that would be our intention. From a planning standpoint, you can imagine if there is the potential for that trigger to trigger to the upside, that could actually just strengthen our plan further and provide us more capability to put more into the system.
Anthony Crowdell :
Great. And then lastly, Patti, it's on your, I guess, story of the month, I think you framed it as -- or savings a month of the undergrounding. And I understand the savings that you get by not having to bury the conduit, whatever, 36 inches and now you're at 26, but if I think of the -- probably a large component of the cost of undergrounding, maybe labor. And if I think of PG&E is probably on their gas side has been burying gas pipe for 100 years. Like I don't -- can I expect any efficiencies in the digging trenches and putting a conduit down, that great considering you've been -- you probably have mastered the trenching of a conduit from the gas side of the business?
Patricia Poppe :
Anthony, that's a great question. And first of all, I do remind people that all the time that we've been burying pipe for a long time. However, I would say the synergies that exist are that we can deploy our workforce. We actually have a program called GTE, gas to electric, where we're enabling our gas workforce to do a lot of the civil work. All that to say, this undergrounding of electric lines has new technologies that we can deploy today that we're pretty excited about. And you'll get a chance to see those at our Investor Day, the actual equipment, whether it's a rock wheel or a plow-type piece of equipment or even at grade conduit in what's something called K rail, which we'll be able to show you all these things at Investor Day. There's still much, much efficiency that we can gain, and we're really excited about all of the progress and the ideas that we're getting both from our partners as well as from our own work team in our gas division. So there's definitely a great synergy there to leverage.
Operator:
And we'll take the next question from Ryan Levine at Citi.
Ryan Levine :
I guess to follow up on the waste elimination center comments, can you expand what type of projects or initiatives you're tracking beyond mail postage? I mean how material are some of these opportunities? Or any way to frame the scale?
Patricia Poppe :
Yes. Well, the scale is really massive, Ryan. It starts -- I think the book ends of the mailing, which is $4 million of potential savings with just 1 mailing, all the way up to the story that I shared about the undergrounding, that's all borne out of waste elimination. Some other important focus areas for us in the waste elimination center are things like our new customer connection process improvement. I know that's an area of interest for a lot of people, and we've been making significant progress there in identifying waste in that process that we can eliminate and make a better outcome, a faster outcome for customers at a lower cost as well as other things like just bundling work. We have work often done in silos. So on one week, a crew might go out and change a cross arm and two weeks later, they might go out and change that very same pole. And so bundling work so that we get out there once and do it at the lowest cost possible and least disruptive for customers. The potential here, Ryan, I cannot describe is almost infinite. And when we get 26,000 of my co-workers all being proficient in being able to see waste for what it is and then eliminate it on a daily basis, this thing just runs itself. That's a -- it's a great future that lies ahead for this team and therefore, our customers.
Ryan Levine :
Good to hear. In terms of the CEMA exposure in the early part of the quarter, where is the balance for that as of the end of the quarter? And any time line for recovery through the regulatory process?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Just to help give you a feel for that. What we had filed earlier, Ryan, was a little over $300 million in impact so far. I will offer to you that's early. That number is going to go up. I would assume we're going to be in total -- if you look at all the storm impacts, we're talking about 13 atmospheric rivers of impacts here, this is probably going to be over $500 million in impact. The CEMA related account, though, is a very consistent recovery mechanism. But as you go forward, we would typically complete the work, audit the work, make that filing, and you typically get around an 18-month to two-year time line for resolution but been used really here in California for many years.
Operator:
And that does conclude our question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Patti Poppe for closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe :
Thanks, Audra. And we really wanted to be mindful of everyone's time today and keeping this call short. So I'll just wrap with one -- couple of thoughts. One, our best wishes to Chris as he embarks on his next professional step. We're going to miss him, but we're excited and proud of everything that he's achieved and what he's going to achieve next. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to seeing you at our Investor Days on May 24 and 25. We're excited to see that many of you have already registered, high demand for this event. So we're excited about that. There will be much for you to see live. It will not be possible on the webcast. And so we still have room, if you'd just like to join us, just make sure you register. We are definitely seeing progress here at PG&E. And we want to be able to share that with you at our Investor Day. We want you to know that an investment in PCG is an investment in serving people, the planet and prosperity of many millions. And we're very proud of the progress that the team is making here. I want to share that with you at Investor Day. So we look forward to seeing you there. Please be safe out there, everyone. Have a great day.
Operator:
And that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Release. Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Jonathan Arnold. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's fourth quarter and full year earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures. And the slides, along with other relevant information, can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, which was released earlier this morning. And with that, it's my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on what I know is a busy earnings morning. As you'll see on Slide 3, this morning, we reported full year 2022 core earnings of $1.10 per share, right on guidance. This was my second year with PG&E with results delivered on plan. No more, no less. As I like to say, we sweat the details so you don't have to. Our simple, affordable model is designed to maximize work for our customers and deliver on our commitment to you, our investors, each and every year. Our $1.10 EPS for 2022 was up 10% from 2021 as planned. We're also reaffirming our 2023 core EPS guidance range of $1.19 to $1.23, up 10% at the midpoint, along with our previously stated longer-term targets of at least 10% EPS growth in 2024 and at least 9% for '25 and '26. Also unchanged is our plan for no new equity through 2024. As you know, our sector-leading EPS growth is supported by robust capital investment and ongoing efficiency gains for the benefit of the 16 million Californians we serve. In fact, in 2022, we invested $9.6 billion of capital into our system for the benefit of our customers. Our system has never been safer, and we continue to make it safer every day. I want to thank you, our investors, for your part in making that possible. The simple, affordable model underpins our confidence in reiterating our financial outlook today despite the very real challenges faced by most businesses in today's inflationary and uncertain economic environment. Turning to Slide 4. We've made strong progress mitigating physical and financial risk. So here are some high points. On wildfire mitigation, we saw a 99% reduction in acres burned in 2022 relative to the average of the 3 years directly before implementation of Enhanced Powerline Safety Setting. As we reported last quarter, we were able to successfully navigate extreme summer heat conditions. And in January, our system was put to the test again with an unprecedented series of winter storms, which were met with truly historic levels of performance from the PG&E team. In addition to addressing physical risks, 2022 was a big year for our financial risk mitigation. We delivered our earnings guidance as well as non-fuel O&M cost reductions of 3% net of inflation. This was ahead of our 2% plan and was achieved in the face of the most challenging inflationary backdrop many of us have seen in our careers. In our GRC, we added undergrounding while removing vegetation management expense, delivering long-term safety while keeping cost neutral for customers. We closed our $7.5 billion rate-neutral securitization and worked with California policymakers over the summer as they passed constructive legislation supporting our 10-year undergrounding plans and to extend the life of our Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant. We view both as beneficial to customers and evidence of the greater trust we are building day in and day out with our stakeholders. On the regulatory front, we appreciate the CPUC resolving both the 2022 and 2023 cost of capital proceedings last year. And in terms of customer savings, the Net Energy Metering 3.0 decision was a win for customers. We estimate it removes about $1 billion of cost shift through 2030 relative to NEM 2.0. On Slide 5, we show some highlights on our historic January storm response. I want to emphasize that this story is about more than numbers on a page. This was us delivering for our hometowns, and our coworkers are at their best when put to the test. During the first 2 weeks of 2023, hit by historic back-to-back to back-to-back atmospheric river storms, our electric team restored over 2.8 million customers through multiple waves of outages, and we had 95% back online within 24 hours during each of those events. January ranked as the top 5 storm in PG&E history and involved the largest contingent of resources we have ever mobilized, including around 7,200 dedicated personnel from 10 states. The strength and speed of our response also resulted in us seeing improved customer satisfaction scores compared to prior storm-related outages. We've also adopted the standardized emergency management system and Internet command system. And with the support from California's Office of Emergency Services, we've been aligning training of our emergency center staff with our first responder public safety partners. When the time came, our team and an army of partners acted with skill and tenacity, protecting and serving each other and our hometown, and we couldn't be prouder of them. On Slide 6, I'll recap our layers of protection against wildfire risk, which start with our core system hardening, vegetation management, inspections and repairs. When conditions warned, we supplement these with our Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings and our Public Safety Power Shutoffs. We calculate these layers of protection, including improved situational awareness and coordination with first responders, as delivering over 90% overall wildfire risk reduction. We've already hardened more than 1,200 miles since 2019, and we expect our overall risk reduction to further increase as we pursue our 10,000-mile undergrounding program. In the meantime, we continue to look for innovative new technology solutions such as partial voltage detection and down conductor technology to keep reducing that remaining 10%. On Slide 7, we take a closer look at our 2022 wildfire risk mitigation performance. Historical data show that from 2012 to 2020, that's before we implemented EPSS, 95% of the acres and 100% of the structures burned were related to ignitions at times when conditions were at R3 or higher. While we were fortunate that 2022 didn't bring significant wind events for the year, there were still 31% more R3 or higher days than in 2018 to 2020. Despite this significant increase, we saw a reduction of 99% in the number of acres impacted by utility ignitions in 2022 over the same time period. Slide 8 illustrates our simple, affordable model, which includes driving efficiency to make room for customer investment. You've heard us talk a lot about the lean operating system and our 4 basic plays. In 2023, we're rolling out a fifth play, my personal favorite, waste elimination. And we see this as key to continuing to deliver our plans for both customers and investors. Our primary constraint is customer affordability, on which we are laser-focused through our newly established bill ownership center led by Carla Peterman. The entire team is looking at the whole customer bill for savings, including energy supply costs, which we know are top of mind. We have a lot of opportunity to eliminate waste, improve our customers' experience, make our system cleaner and more resilient all the while reducing cost. We can do more for less. The examples keep piling up. So I felt I needed to bring back my story of the month. So here we go. This month's story is about work we are doing to improve efficiency in our new business area. Presently, our new customer connections take too long from start to finish. As I recently told a group of California builders, we can, and we will do better. In fact, it's another perfect application for our lean operating system, and specifically, waste elimination. The team invited our developers and builders to come in and work with us to redesign our processes and share their pain points. We conducted a design thinking workshop. And through rapid prototyping, we can see the path to taking the cycle time down dramatically, improving our ability to both do the hook up on time and in less time. Imagine the rework, the waste, the frustration, the delays we can eliminate. One challenge is that 64% of the new connection requests we receive today end up being canceled for a variety of reasons. We do too much engineering before we are sure it will even be used. This wastes both time and money, and it also is demoralizing for our talented engineers when much of their work never sees the light of day. We can dramatically improve how we show up for our new customers. And by doing that, we can free up more time and resources to reinvest back into the system. This is just one of the areas where we are delivering more for customers with every dollar spent. Now that's what I call enabling California's prosperity. Turning to Slide 9. You may recognize this chart, which shows how we executed in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, we faced headwinds early in the year. Our recovery work then put us ahead of plan. This is all part of the playbook we're running now at PG&E. We plan conservatively, and we remain nimble, protecting investors from the downside. And when there's upside, we will redeploy it for the benefit of customers, which, in many cases, means pulling work forward and protecting future years. Consistency is the name of the game. You can see it play out again in 2022. We faced headwinds, including a possible cost of capital reset. We have planned conservatively, though, and we're able to more than offset this and other pressures, allowing us to redeploy again on behalf of our customers and still deliver 10% EPS growth. Employing the simple, affordable model, we plan to consistently manage the work and deliver our earnings targets, no more and no less. And when we can, we will redeploy favorability in the business on behalf of customers and look to derisk future years with a view to delivering our consistent growth trajectory. Lots of people say to me, "Patti, what if this happens or what if that happens?" This is what we manage at PG&E. Come what may, we have the capability to be nimble and adapt to those challenging and changing conditions. It's a capability that can be taught and learned. As I've said many times, we ride the roller coaster so you don't have to. You can expect to see more of this in 2023 and beyond. Moving to Slide 10. You can see the progress we made in 2022 as we continue on our journey to build trust with policymakers while creating the stability necessary to attract capital to invest on behalf of customers. Already, in 2023, we're pleased with the expedited resolution of our self-insurance settlement reached as part of our General Rate Case. This innovative approach enjoys intervenous support and most importantly, can result in up to $1.8 billion of savings for customers over the 4-year GRC period with as much as $300 million expected in 2023. We also have a number of important catalysts on the horizon. Each of the 4 items you'll see here in blue contain important benefits for our customers and for California. We'll continue to work every day toward timely and constructive outcomes, but we don't do big bets here at PG&E. And I want to remind you that we continue to plan conservatively even as I look forward to seeing more green check marks on this slide. Turning to Slide 11. Let's take a look at our 2022 report card. While the material fire did not result in any serious injuries and the estimated liability is well within our available insurance, it did cause us to miss our goal of 0 CPUC reportable admissions of 100 acres or more. We put 180 miles of lines underground last year, exceeding our 175-mile target. And we chose to redirect capital investment to maximize risk reduction during the year, which changed our plans for gas main replacements. We exceeded our 2% annual O&M cost reduction, offsetting inflation and delivering net savings of 3%. Yes, that is net of inflationary pressure. We see plenty of potential to continue 2% net O&M reduction for many years ahead by working smarter and maximizing value for our customers and investors. Core EPS came in right on plan at 10%, while we delivered 6% rate base growth in what was the final year of our GRC cycle. Lastly, we were pleased that Moody's recognized our significant progress on mitigating risk and improving relationships in the state when they revised our credit outlook to positive earlier this month. On Slide 12, we introduced our 2023 report card. One key change is to our headline wildfire metric, where we're sticking with a target of 0 and resulting a new OEIS metric for catastrophic wildfires. This measure lines up with our future wildfire mitigation plans, and we think it's a better one for capturing events that are of real significance from both a customer and investor perspective. We remain committed to our 10,000-mile undergrounding goal and to achieving our unit cost targets. We'll be filing our 10-year plan later this year with more details. Our 2% O&M reduction plan shouldn't be a surprise either, and there are no changes to any of our previous financial targets through 2026. We're excited to be adding another year, 2027, to our rate base and CapEx as we look to give you more visibility into our long-term plan. Our headline 5-year rate base CAGR of 9.5% remains the same, but it's now based off 2022 actuals and runs through 2027. We're feeling really good about what we accomplished in 2022, and we look forward to delivering for you again in 2023. With that, I'll hand over to Chris, who will discuss our financial and regulatory items in more detail.
Christopher Foster:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. As Patti mentioned, we delivered our financial commitments this year, landing at $1.10 in EPS for the full year 2022 and completed the year without issuing equity. We're also reaffirming our 2023 to 2026 earnings growth guidance and our commitment to no equity in 2023 or 2024. This morning, I have a few updates to share with you. To start, I'll recap the drivers of our 2022 financial results and review our 2023 guidance drivers. I'll now provide some updates on how we're delivering against our simple, affordable model. Lastly, I'll provide a few highlights on regulatory, legal and legislative items. Let's start on Slide 13. As you can see in our full year walk, non-GAAP core earnings were $1.10 per diluted share for the year. We earned $0.07 from our customer capital investments and achieved $0.08 in savings from cost reductions. This allowed us to navigate the ups and downs during the year and deploy resources in our system for customers by pulling forward some work in future years and making other sound financial decisions to deliver right on target for the year. On Slide 14, as we showed you last quarter, we have planned for substantial customer investment in our 5-year plan, about 1/3 higher than the prior 5 years. We rolled this forward to include 2027. And as shown in orange, we're planning to spend almost 1/2 of our capital in the next 5 years on risk reduction across the enterprise. This includes system hardening, pipeline replacement and other work critical to reducing risk. We use a risk-based approach to prioritize our capital spend, addressing the highest risk and customer-centric work first. We are also focused on improving our capital to expense ratio over time. When we were able to do permanent repairs instead of temporary fixes, we improve that ratio and create headroom in the customer bill. This important work in our system also drives earnings per share growth and improves our cash flow from operations. And as you can see on the right-hand side of the slide, we've identified over $5 billion of incremental investment opportunity not yet in the plan. We would intend to bring some of this customer-focused spending into the plan as we work to create headroom on the customer bill. And using our simple, affordable model, we can deliver more risk reduction for every customer dollar spent because of our focus on lean, including waste elimination. Given the substantial capital opportunities in our plan, our pending 2023 General Rate Case and our focus on a return to investment-grade ratings, we intend to continue to show progress on our FFO to debt metric as you've seen on our report card slide. We landed at about 12.5% in 2022, showed some good progress there over where we ended 2021 at 10.9%. Moving to Slide 15. 2022 came with own set of challenges that we overcame. We saw inflation, rising interest rates, extreme heat, targeted supply chain shortages, natural gas price spikes, an unprecedented range. And yet, we found ways to stay on plan. And as Patti mentioned, the work of the teams to respond to the historic storms late last year and early this year was incredible. That's why we're so proud of what we are delivering for customers and for you, our investors, using our simple, affordable model. We are laser-focused on affordability and know you are, too. So let's dig a little further into the model. Through a series of good business decisions and the lean capabilities we're building, we were able to exceed our targeted 2% non-fuel O&M reduction in 2022, delivering a 3% reduction despite inflation. And we use those savings to serve customers and derisk 2023. We saw significant savings for customers in vegetation management driven by improvements in unit costs due to a few strategic changes. First, we implemented a new accountability model and a consistent pricing structure that supports the integration of work while improving contractor oversight and warranties for rework. Then we also reduced our contractor counts from 24 to 14, implemented new subcontracting controls and regionalized work to build a stable and predictable plan. This should result in a better customer experience. There were repeat visits and lower cost to deliver for our hometowns while still meeting all our commitments. Through these efforts, we've saved around $200 million in vegetation management costs in 2022 relative to budget. And we expect to realize over $300 million in cost savings this year while still delivering the units in the base work plan with improved safety and quality. Also in 2022, we achieved an undergrounding average unit cost per mile, well below the $3.75 million target shared at Investor Day and the baseline of over $4 million from just a few years ago. And there's more opportunity for customers ahead. As you saw in our report card, our 2% non-fuel O&M savings remains our annual target. We're just getting started finding cost savings for our customers, whether it be through improving our capital to expense ratio, eliminating waste from our processes or working with stakeholders to find better solutions for customers such as our self-insurance settlement. And as you can see in the 2023 plan column, we are continuing to aggressively pursue efficiencies to deliver our annual 2% non-fuel O&M reduction, which similar to 2022 assumes continued inflationary cost pressures. While our 2% O&M reduction target excludes fuel, I want to take a moment to reflect on the higher bills our customers have been experiencing this winter compared to last winter, largely as a result of higher natural gas prices experienced across the West Coast. Collectively, during the gas price run-ups in the winter, our procurement team was able to save customers well over $1 billion through a series of thoughtful measures, including a diversified portfolio that includes interstate pipeline capacity reaching back to the supply basins, natural gas storage and financial hedging. To further support our customers, we've been going after bill relief strategies in partnership with federal and state regulators and policymakers. One example would be supporting the accelerated timing of the annual climate credit, which should put over $90 back in the pockets of our average combination electric and gas customer. Let's move to the top of Slide 16. As you saw through 2022, we're getting better regulatory and financial outcomes because we're delivering on our operational commitments and serving our customers better every day. Performance is power, and we own our performance. Our 2022 cost of capital was decided by the CPUC in Q4, leaving our 2022 ROE unchanged. We also received a final decision in our 2023 cost of capital as scheduled, providing further certainty as the 10% ROE approved applies through 2025. Last month, as requested, the CPUC approved our self-insurance settlement. We appreciate this decision as it allows us to avoid procuring costly wildlife insurance from the commercial insurance markets over at least the next 3 years, saving customers up to $1.8 billion through 2026. We also filed a Track 2 settlement in the GRC, which should help streamline the case procedurally with the schedule calling for a final decision in the third quarter. Our Pacific Generation application is moving through the CPUC process with a schedule that was released calling for a proposed decision no later than the end of November. While this could mean we don't get a final decision until 2024, we don't see the schedule set forth in the scoping memo, resulting in a meaningful change to our financial plan. We continue to view the sale as an opportunity to efficiently raise needed equity and a solution that benefit customers through realized tax benefits, which accelerate contributions to the customer credit trust. Moving to wildfire-related cost recovery. In 2022, we were authorized to collect $2.3 billion. The net unresolved balance is now approximately $4.7 billion, and I'm pleased to report additional progress on several cost recovery proceedings. First, our 2020 WMCE is now final, with those costs moving into rates. Second, we settled our 2021 WMCE resolving all elements apart from the cost in our vegetation management balancing account. Additionally, we filed our 2022 WMCE application and a motion requesting interim rate relief. Finally, on this slide, we are progressing through the next steps of 2 key pieces of legislation passed in 2022. In November, the Department of Energy confirmed Diablo Canyon is eligible for federal funding through the Civil Nuclear Credit Program and conditionally awarded a total of $1.1 billion. We view the NRC staff decision last month to require a new application as procedural. And I note that our team has been working on a parallel approach from the outset. NRC staff expect to respond in March to our waiver request, which will allow for continued operation of the units beyond the current operating license expiration date. We're planning to file our new applications with the NRC before the end of this year. Lastly, 2 notes on our progress on resolving legacy legal claims. First, this week, we filed a joint motion for approval of a settlement reached with the SED resolving their investigation into the Zogg fire. We continue to assert, we were a prudent operator, and we've agreed to forgo cost recovery on $140 million, which will be invested over 3 to 5 years primarily in future system enhancements with a $10 million penalty going to the state general fund. Second, we've made some modest increases to our wildfire loss accruals for third-party claims this quarter, including $75 million for the Kincade fire, $25 million for the Zogg fire and $25 million for the Dixie fire. I'll remind you that our accrual for the Zogg fire is well within our available insurance. And we continue to book offsetting receivables for the accrual associated with the Dixie fire. For the Dixie fire, we've reached agreements to settle claims, including with the cities and counties. And we continue to work to fairly resolve individual claims through our fast claims process and mediation. In all of these cases, we remain committed to continuing to make it right for the communities and customers we serve. California has established legislative and regulatory processes to allow for constructive outcomes where we perform well. We recognize that we have a busy regulatory agenda with the CPUC, and we appreciate the commission's thoughtful consideration as we work relentlessly to achieve our safety and reliability goals as well as advancing California's climate leadership. Here on Slide 17, I want to take a moment to remind you that we have relatively limited sensitivity to some key variables outside of our control. Part of this is due to constructive California regulation, including decoupling for both gas and electric. Four elements provide for formulaic commodity recovery with timely cash collection, a 4-year General Rate Case cycle and a 3-year cost of capital cycle. Additionally, we're taking the initiative through our simple, affordable model and our focus on the bill, which we expect to further mitigate financial and regulatory risk as we continue to build trust with our customers, regulators and policymakers. Moving to Slide 18. We are progressing towards meeting the common stock dividend eligibility threshold later this year. As a reminder, before declaring a dividend, we will first need to report a cumulative $6.2 billion in non-GAAP core earnings since our emergence from Chapter 11, so starting from the third quarter of 2020. For this purpose, non-GAAP core earnings means GAAP earnings adjusted for certain non-core items specified in our plan of reorganization. And as we step into 2023, we still expect to reach eligibility around midyear. Our plan currently shows us reaching eligibility during the third quarter, although this remains subject to assumptions, including the timing of regulatory decisions. Regarding our eventual policy, I'll remind you that regardless of timing, we plan to recommend to the Board that we start with a small dividend initially, feathering in growth over time. I'll wrap here by emphasizing that we met our 10% EPS growth target in 2022, no more and no less. And going forward, we continue to reiterate at least 10, 10, 9, 9. And with that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. Let me close by emphasizing we've made a lot of progress in 2022. And yet, we are long away from being done. We have plenty more for you to look forward to in 2023 and beyond as we continue to write the next chapter in the PG&E story. For our current investors and for those of you still taking a look, we hope you'll consider joining us in California for our 2023 Investor Day on May 24 in the Bay Area followed by undergrounding site visits in and around Napa County on May 25. We're excited to share more details of our longer-term financial plan and our investment opportunities. We'll roll up our sleeves to show some of our risk reduction tools and technology with you. And we'll also give you the chance to hear about our progress from some of our key California stakeholders. We can't wait to see you. And with that, operator, please open the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our first question from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Just real quick, Patti. In terms of the process and maybe establishing some framework around the Pac Gen equity sale, I mean, obviously, there's been some early stakeholder comments, and the CPUC narrowed down and issues list this year. I guess do you feel there could be an expedited resolution via some form of a settlement, partial settlement to move this process along faster?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Shar, we -- again, as we've been pretty clear about this, feel like the Pac Gen sale is a really good option for customers. It's a very efficient financing solution. Expedited might be a little overly ambitious. We know that the commission has a lot of input to take in from stakeholders, and we want to give them the appropriate time to do that review. Though we feel like we've made a really great case, and we feel good about the potential.
Shahriar Pourreza:
And then obviously, you guys put out a mid- to high teens credit metric target. Is that -- just remind us, is that inclusive of the Pac Gen equity sale or not?
Christopher Foster:
Shar, that's true. The base plan does include the proceeds from Pac Gen. And as you can imagine, as we kind of more broadly look at the consistent view we've had on mid- to high teens by 2024 on FFO to debt, the real drivers there are probably going to be the GRC. You've got the wildfire recoveries that we touched on a little bit ago, and obviously, then just underlying CapEx profile as well. So I would think about those as really the drivers behind what we're looking at there for mid- to high teens.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just lastly, Patti, I mean, obviously, one of the key messages for you on this call is like the bill impact is going to be sort of modest, let's just say, right? But some of the offsets and levers that you guys have been able to utilize and plan, which is a really good message. But there's still like, for instance, over $800 million in deferrals that are pending approval right now. I guess how does that kind of play into the equation?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, Shar. I would say a couple of things. First, there's near-term bill pressure as I think people across the country are feeling with the commodity cost impact and what we're doing there. As Chris mentioned on the call, the state did a really good job, and kudos to the commission for pulling ahead the California climate credit for customers to, in the near term, offset the commodity impact. And we've obviously seen, like others, the commodity cost is back down into more normal range. And that bodes well for customers, and we feel good about that. But longer term, I think as we think about all of the necessary work for customers, this is why the simple, affordable model here at PG&E is so important. For a long time, we were doing Band-Aid replacements and not doing the permanent corrective climate-resilient infrastructure investments our customers have been asking for. That's why undergrounding is so important. That's why our capital plan, we've given so much visibility to the capital plan because those investments in our infrastructure enable us to reduce our expense, improve that capital to expense ratio. Our 3% delivery of our O&M savings this year, that's after inflation that factored in inflation, and then we still deliver 3% on top of that. That's just the beginnings of this team's capability to offset and reduce expenses to make the headroom for the necessary investments in truly climate-resilient infrastructure. This is a model that is really starting to play out here at PG&E that will benefit customers from both their affordability. And as we layer in those legacy costs then they too will be offset by these cost savings that we're delivering. And so waste elimination is our theme this year, teaching people how to do more for less and really actually making the customer experience better at a lower cost is what the simple, affordable model delivers. And we're excited to be employing it here at PG&E.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe.
Steven Fleishman:
So I think you just answered my first question, Patti, which is that the -- when you talk about the O&M costs, net of inflation, you're basically saying those are absolute costs. So even though inflation was up 6%, 7%, 8% last year, your costs were -- your O&M was down 3%.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Steve. And we're proud of that, and I'm proud of the team for the hard work that they did, and we're just getting started, Steve. That's what's so exciting about this waste elimination and our story of the month about the new business. There is so much opportunity here, and the team is so hungry to learn. I'm so proud of them. I actually was in our waste -- our new business center just the other day where we're highlighting our waste elimination efforts. And that team was smiling for the first time in a long time, because they're realizing that they can, in fact, have the tools. People need to learn these techniques to actually reduce cost while they're doing more work, and people are really learning fast. I'm super proud of the team.
Steven Fleishman:
Should we think of the waste elimination is like incremental to the O&M costs of 2%? Or that's just part of -- or that's part of achieving the 2%?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, it definitely enables us to deliver that 2% and all the inflationary pressures. So we call it 2%, but it's inflation plus 2%. And so that's what waste elimination delivers. And that, again, as we have ups and downs that come at us, that roller coaster I talk about, this is the capability that we can build into the team to turn on that capacity to reduce waste and absorb inflation and still deliver the 2% plus.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then on the GRC, could you maybe just talk to the schedule for that? And is there likely to be any opportunities to settle either partial provisions of that further like the insurance or the case overall?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. So we've hit the stage where settlement is not really an option at this juncture. We've settled pieces and parts like the insurance because it was so valuable for customers to get that settled early and deploy those savings here in '23. And so as we follow the timetable that the commission has laid out, we're looking for a proposed decision and final decision in the third quarter. And we know that the commission has a lot on their plate, but we also know that this rate case is really important to customers and our ability to deploy all of the infrastructure investment that we've been talking about for the benefit of customers. So we expect timing to maintain the schedule that the commission has laid out.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then lastly, I just have to ask again, just any color -- new color from the fire victim trustee on just their kind of pace of payments and timing of remaining stock sales?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. No, we haven't really heard anything new. We know that the fire victim's trust is aligned with our interest of delivering safety for customers. As the company succeeds, it enables them to provide for the victims that are included in that trust. And so -- but no new information on timing on that front.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Listen, I wanted to kick it up first on a question related to '27. I know you guys rolled forward the 9.5% rate base CAGR at 2027, held back on commenting on EPS. I know you had this conversation about 10% or 9% in the past. You bifurcated that very clearly. I also appreciate the timeline of the current GRC and what that means for '27. But just asking the question, how do you think about '27 EPS growth and rolling forward the EPS CAGR as well, if you will?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Julien, I think -- how I think about 2027 is the abundant investment opportunity that we have for the benefit of customers. So we've been pretty transparent with our at least 10, at least 10, at least 9, at least 9. We're going to continue on that EPS growth trajectory, but we need to -- our focus is on developing the best long-term capital investment plan that enables customers to have the infrastructure they've been waiting for and the cost mix by our cost savings that we continue to do that enable that investment without burdening customers too much on that affordability. So our eyes are definitely on a long-term infrastructure investment plan at the lowest cost possible for our customers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. I would imagine, given the GRC and also, over time, kind of a normalization of the growth trajectories between rate base and EPS, perhaps the bias seems closer to 9 than 10?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, we're just going to have to see, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Fair enough. Fair enough.
Patricia Poppe:
We're obviously thinking a lot mostly about derisking our system physically and making those necessary investments for customers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Absolutely. Understood. Listen, Patti, actually, since you mentioned this in the prepared remarks on the interconnections and your story, I thought it was very relevant given some of the feedback we're hearing. I'm curious to get your perspectives on what kind of load growth you're seeing. Where are you trending within that 1% to 3%? And can you comment maybe on some pent-up load growth that maybe because of those interconnection delays may not have been realized yet, if you will. But I also appreciate that the transportation electrification figures into that 1% to 3%. But overall, where are you trending against that prospectively, given some of these tailwinds?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. As we've said, we're looking at 1% to 3% load growth over time, more toward the back end of our plan than the front end, but we are seeing low growth. In fact, cut off the presses, Julien, we had 23% of all new vehicle sales in our service area in 2022 were EVs, 23%. I think that's a surprising number. That's up from 16% in 2021. So the EV evolution is definitely happening in California and definitely happening in our service area. In fact, the state was 20% EV penetration. We were 23% in 2022. So all that to say, we are very bullish on the EV role in load growth. Every EV is like half a house. So in other words, 2 EVs equals a new household in our service area. There is definitely load growth potential. Our forecasts reflect that. And you're right, we have to get really good at building out this capacity for our industrial and residential customers as more fleets electrify, big -- a school bus. So I was just -- in fact, we just were in one of the electric school buses last week. And that school bus is a megawatt, and Oakland Public Schools is planning to include electric school buses in their fleet. So here we are in our hometown, making sure that they're going to be ready, that's all opportunity for us. And so as we work with our regulators, making sure that we have a dynamic regulatory environment where we can, in fact, prepare for that capacity investment, be ahead of it is pretty exciting for customers. And so the interconnection, we're continuing to track with that investment, but we see real forecasted growth in the coming years, and that's exciting for us.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Nicholas Campanella with Credit Suisse.
Nicholas Campanella:
I wanted to hit the undergrounding. So you've done about 300 miles now. You have this 10-year plan that's going to be filed soon, but you also kind of changed the GRC. I think there was an intra-quarter update, which might have removed some of the underground in capital. So I guess, first, can you just kind of comment on -- since you've progressed through this program, are you seeing pressures higher in cost? Or are you seeing efficiencies more from lessons learned? And then second, just how do we kind of think about your ability to hit the goal for roughly 2,000 miles with the shift in the GRC?
Patricia Poppe:
Great question. Of course, we're very excited about our undergrounding plan. And just a couple of good important clarifications for everyone. Number one, we reduced our mileage as a result of conversations with our key stakeholders. We have to earn the right to do that underground. We have to prove that we can, in fact, do it at the unit cost that we've described. Happy to report in 2022, the 180 miles we delivered was at a unit cost lower than we had forecasted. So the team is definitely improving on efficiency. And I feel like we're just getting started and really having the scope and scale of program that will consistently deliver the unit costs that we're forecasting. Our 10-year plan comes out later this year, and that will clarify mileage and unit cost targets. And I also want to remind everyone that, look, this undergrounding program is very important from a risk reduction and a customer satisfaction, but it's not a big bet. The undergrounding program is less than 20% of our total capital plan. It is flexible and dynamic in nature. We're going to be working with our regulators and those stakeholders to make sure that we do undergrounding at a pace that they support. I remind myself, the Golden Gate Bridge wasn't built in a year. It was built over time, and it's beloved, and that's what our undergrounding program is going to be. It's going to be built over time, and it's going to be beloved. And we have to earn the right to grow those miles year after year after year. And so we're very focused on doing that well. We've got a program structure set up that's delivered real savings in our wildfire mitigation through vegetation management inspections. The same leadership team is leading the undergrounding program. So we're expecting big things from Peter and the team as they build out our undergrounding program to the benefit of customers. I hope that helps.
Nicholas Campanella:
Absolutely. I'm excited to see the plan as it comes together here. So just a quick question on the credit side. Congrats on getting the positive outlook, I guess, from Moody's. What is your understanding, I guess, of what the agencies are looking for now? Is it more time, another fire season to get back to IG here or is it more metrics-based because it does seem like the metrics are going in the right direction.
Christopher Foster:
Sure thing. Nick, I think it's -- in Moody's really reaffirmed this too that our financial metrics as we look at them are really already in that investment-grade territory. So I think really across the agencies, their emphasis is really shared on the physical risk reduction progress we're making. Patti hit the year-over-year improvements in our Enhanced Powerline Safety Settings and just the clear results of that delivers. And then I think also it's the desire to see continued progress and data points with our policymakers. Last year, we clearly made progress on some key customer-friendly programs, both the undergrounding program and the Diablo Canyon operating life extension in terms of new policy. And I think we just want to continue that progress this year. And that could be across wildfire-related recoveries at the CPUC, certainly our General Rate Case as well as the Pacific Generation filing there at the CPUC as well.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. We'll take our next question from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
I was wondering if you could speak a little bit to the upside CapEx opportunities, the $5 billion that you laid out in terms of the transmission investment distribution. What could be kind of the timing of getting more concrete numbers around that? When -- could it hit the 5-year plan? Is it potentially kind of elongating the CapEx runway from here? And are there any like milestones that we might track as you evaluate some of those upside opportunities?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, David. The point in sharing that potential upside is just to share that we have abundant capital infrastructure demand on the system. And so it is truly on us to find ways to offset costs. Everything that's in the bill that is unrelated to capital investment are areas of the bill that we can reduce in order to enable potential headroom then for that necessary customer benefiting infrastructure investment. So for example, we talked about this insurance settlement. That's a big savings for customers over time. That would be the sort of thing that creates headroom that we can enable additional capital without pressuring customers' bills. Now we filed a General Rate Case. It's important. That will be an important outcome later this year. That will provide more visibility to exactly what capital we have support from our commission to invest. And then we're going to continue to demonstrate this waste elimination capacity. So if we start to deliver greater than 2% O&M savings or other savings that enable headroom, that creates the room for capital investment that doesn't pressure customer bills. This is the simple, affordable model in action. And it's dynamic in that way that if we additional -- find additional customer savings, then we'll work with our regulators to approve additional capital to deploy to the benefit of customers.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Understood. That's helpful. And then I was wondering your fire risk mitigation strategies, they're broad. There are a lot of different components of that. I was wondering if you could speak to innovation that you're working on with regard to fire risk reduction in terms of technologies or new applications that you're exploring right now that could be layered on to the current risk mitigation programs?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, I'm so glad you asked because we're going to be highlighting that at our Investor Day in May, May 24 and 25. We'd love to have you out, and everyone on the call is welcome to join us. Some of the things that are pretty exciting are our partial voltage detection, which utilizes our smart meter technology for service line risk. We've got our down conductor technology. We're expanding the development of that program. Our teams have had some great breakthroughs in the last year. Kudos to our advanced technology team and all the hard work they've been doing. And you'll get to see a firsthand when you come out. So lots of innovation and technology, of course, all the data science that underpins our EPSS and our PSPS is really incredible to understand in more detail. And it's what gives us confidence heading throughout the year, whatever the environmental conditions around us, whether it's dry, it's wet, it's hot, it's cold, we're building infrastructure and the capability to adapt to those changing conditions and keep people safe. And I couldn't be more proud of the team and the progress we've made. We continue to make that progress, and we'll have it on display at our Investor Day here in May. Come on out and see us.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.
Richard Sunderland:
It's actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy. Just one quick follow-up on the $5 billion CapEx upside. Curious a little bit more around those opportunities and what the total bucket of possibilities are. Just really the $5 billion, is it sized for what you think you may be able to fold in over the near to medium term? And is there a larger opportunity set that you're still working through?
Christopher Foster:
Rich, happy to take it. I would take the second part first and say there is a larger opportunity set. But again, as Patti mentioned, keep in mind, our focus is absolutely on that overall simple, affordable model, which includes that affordability constraint for customers, right? So we've always got to keep that in mind as we go. As we look at the opportunities themselves, I really think that what we were mentioning earlier about the electrification growth is very unique for us. And so as we look at that, the EV penetration opportunity you explicitly see us call out in that $5 billion opportunity capacity-based investments. And that's really where we see targeted investments that we can make that will benefit the areas where you're seeing not just need for wildfire risk reduction, but also in some of those suburban communities where we're seeing a pretty dramatic EV uptake. So the opportunity there, I would say, do start to come in the medium term and only increase as we go further out.
Richard Sunderland:
Understood. That's very clear. And then just one last one at the risk of, I guess, front running the Analyst Day update. Would that be the forum to address the EPS growth through 2027? I know this was asked earlier.
Christopher Foster:
Sure. I think I'll have to offer this to you. Come on out and see us. We do certainly plan on intending to give you more insight into that longer-term capital plan. But come on out, and we'll be able to share more at that time.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Gregg Orrill with UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
What in the Diablo Canyon extension process should we be watching for in the NRC and state levels?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, first of all, we should be continuing to look for progress because we continue to make progress on that front. The NRC really does have an important job to do, and we don't want them to take any shortcuts. Their focus is on safety and making sure that Diablo Canyon will meet the safety expectations and standards. And so we'll work with them. We have a great relationship with the NRC, and we look forward to working with them on the relicensing process. That's an important part of the process. There's other several state-based regulatory proceedings that will be occurring. And I will remind everyone, we're -- we want to just send some gratitude and recognition to our state and to our state legislature and our governor for having the wisdom to suggest we extend the life of Diablo Canyon power plant. That is a high-performing nuclear facility, GHG-free baseload energy to the benefit of all of California. And so we definitely will be working closely with all of the different regulators to make sure that we make positive progress on that. And so that continues throughout the rest of the year.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
A couple of questions for Patti. How has the hookup cancellation rate changed in the past year? How do you determine which interconnects to prioritize, given limited resources? And then, like in the comments around a new play to the playbook, are you looking at any changes to this process?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, we're looking at changes every day to the process. Look, we've got to be easier to do business with. And I've had a couple of different sessions with our builders here in California. They are a key to California's prosperity. And therefore, we power them and they power California with new housing. And we're very much aligned with them. We're working with them to find accelerated tools and methods. And it's really amazing to see our new business process map and simple changes that can be made right away so that we don't have to make choices about who we're going to energize and who we're not. The question is about how do we energize people faster and streamline that process. And so as I shared, that example of these jobs, they get canceled for a variety of reasons, maybe the customer decides they're not going to do their project after all, having nothing to do with us. And we've done the full engineering. So we're looking at ways of doing a lighter engineering touch upfront just to give people the estimate that they need and making sure that we're only doing the engineering on the jobs that are going to get finished. That's a huge cost savings in hours and dollars. And it enables us to get the work done on time for the builders that are going to finish their projects. And so both capacity and new business are really exciting load growth opportunities for us, and the progress that we've made in a very short order is pretty impressive. We look forward to demonstrating that progress this year and continuing forward.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate the comments. I guess I'm trying to get a sense in terms of quantifying the materiality of some of these delays between when you assumed your currency -- I mean, have you noticed any material changes in how customers have been interconnected or any color you could share around the progress that may be made on a go-forward basis?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. I mean, I think we're seeing increased demand, which is great. There's building happening in California. People are talking about the exodus of California. I can tell you, I'm not feeling it. We're seeing a lot of growth here in customers and capacity. So the -- obviously, the additional electric vehicles that I pointed to is -- requires capacity investments at a substation level, but we also have transmission forecast of additional load. And we're continuing to see the opportunity to build more homes in broader spaces in California. And we're going to keep up with our building and our progress here at PG&E. And that's what this lean operating system provides for us, the foundation to have visibility into our demand and our ability to eliminate the waste so that we can meet that demand. It's pretty exciting times here at PG&E.
Operator:
We'll take our next question from with Ladenburg Dolman.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. To start with, I was hoping to maybe get a little bit of an update on the Zogg trial. I guess the trial's due to begin in June. How long should we sort of expect before there would be a final decision reached in that proceeding? And in the past, I think you've indicated that the liability estimates could triple. Is that still sort of your view in terms of how much the liability could go up if you were found liable?
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Paul. First of all, on that subject, I just want to reiterate that our heart goes out to the victims of the Zogg fire and all of the wildfires. These environmental disasters are extraordinarily painful, and we don't take them lightly. And we're doing everything we can to make our system safer and faster. At the same time, I know that my coworkers are not criminals, and we don't believe that these are criminal matters. All that to say, we do -- the trial date has been set for June 6. We expect it to take about 6 weeks. And we don't expect additional liabilities because we actually plan to win. I think it's important to know that our coworkers, our vegetation management team works day in and day out to make the system safer and faster. And they have no other ambition than to do just that. So we plan to defend our position vigorously.
Unidentified Analyst:
So the trial would take 6 weeks, but the judge issuing a decision could take up to a year after that or...
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Paul, it's hard to say. We'll obviously keep people posted as that goes.
Unidentified Analyst:
In terms of disallowed interest, can you sort of break out the liabilities or the disallowed rate base items that -- at the utility that go into that calculation?
Christopher Foster:
Paul, it's Chris. I'm happy to work on that with you offline. I can actually give you the bill. As you know, we do a roll-up that's in the appendices of our materials, and I'm happy to spend time with you breaking that out. The undercoverable interest expense, as we noted today, ranges from $370 million to $430 million.
Operator:
And that concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Patti Poppe for any additional or closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Lisa, and thank you, everyone, for your questions and your support. I just want to remind you all that your investment in PG&E is an investment in California's safety and prosperity, and we thank you for that. We really appreciate your support. And we are definitely feeling the momentum here at PG&E. We're proud of our performance in 2022, and we're writing the next chapter of our redemption story, and we hope you'll be along for the ride. We look forward to seeing you in California in May, please be safe out there.
Operator:
And that concludes today's presentation. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to PG&E Corporation's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Matt Fallon, Director -- Senior Director, Investor Relations. Mr. Fallon, you may now begin.
Matthew Fallon:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for PG&E's third quarter earnings call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's third quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. The presentation can be found online, along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2022. With that, I'll hand it to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. As you can see on Slide 3, we are on track to deliver our commitments to you. We've narrowed our non-GAAP core EPS range for 2022, to $1.09 to $1.11 per share. As Chris will discuss, we performed well in the third quarter, providing room to reinvest for our customers in the fourth quarter and deliver at the midpoint of our non-GAAP core EPS guidance. No more, no less. In addition, we're initiating 2023 non-GAAP core EPS guidance. You probably won't be surprised, 2023 is in line with our projected 10% growth in a band of $1.19 to $1.23. We're also reiterating our at least 10% EPS growth for 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. No change there. As you know, to fund growing important capital investment for our customers, we've been working on more efficient financing plans like the minority interest sale Pacific Generation. We've been working on plans like this for some time within our five-year planning process. As a result, we're happy to report that we forecast no equity issuance for the remainder of this year, nor in 2023 nor in 2024. There will undoubtedly be ups and downs in that time frame as we continue to resolve legacy legal matters and regulatory investigations and proceedings. We want you to know that we work hard to provide flexibility for the unknowns with an eye toward maximizing the resources available to serve the needs of our customers. Our goal is to be proactive, handle the ups and downs so that you don't have to. Our priority will always be to deliver the highest value investments for customers and deliver consistent financial results for you, our investors. Your capital is essential to our ability to make our system safer, faster and to deliver for our customers. Moving to Slide 4. We continue to be focused on Mitigating Physical Risk and Mitigating Financial Risk. I want to highlight a couple of major accomplishments for the team during the third quarter. First, we experienced a historic 10-day heat wave starting in late August, with all-time record high temperatures and all-time demand on September 6, PG&E and the people of California rose to the challenge. We avoided rotating power outages and we restored 97% of impacted customers within 12 hours. This response is a wonderful example of the PG&E team in action, partnering with the state, our fellow utilities, the California ISO and our customers, mitigating physical risk for our hometowns. Second, this quarter, on our vegetation management, our efforts since 2021 are recognized in the CPUC draft resolution recommending us to exit Step 1 of enhanced oversight. You may remember that we entered into this additional regulatory oversight as a result of our evolving vegetation management program and inconsistent risk model application in 2020. Our customers have benefited from the constructive feedback of our regulators, and we thank them for their transparency and engaging oversight. Another highlight of the quarter came as a result of the policymakers of California working hard through the legislative session to enable us to better serve our customers by passing two historic legislative packages, one for Undergrounding and another to support the extension of our Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant. As I mentioned, we continue our focus on mitigating financial risk for our customers through our simple, affordable model and mitigating financial risk for our investors by delivering consistent, predictable results and a stronger balance sheet. Turning to Slide 5. We continue to add layers of protection that we estimate have mitigated 90-plus percent of the wildfire risk on our system today. Our layers start with our Wildfire Mitigation Programs such as system hardening and Undergrounding, vegetation management and enhanced inspections and repairs. We leverage Enhanced Power Line Safety Setting Technology and our Public Safety Power Shutoff tools to keep people safe when conditions require it. We extend that protection by engaging with first responders when an ignition does occur to make sure that we are using our collective knowledge and experience to minimize the impact of fire spread. And of course, we continue to evaluate innovative solutions to move above the 90-plus percent wildfire risk reduction with a specific focus on low energy faults, which are typically not currently mitigated by EPSS. To address these faults, we're using partial voltage force out and downed conductor detection capabilities. We've implemented partial voltage detection through our smart meters across the high fire risk areas and we've had 33 partial voltage force out since the program initiation in June, with 10 potential hazards identified that could have led to potential ignition. For downed conductor detection, we've installed protection on over 5,000 miles of our overhead electric distribution lines in the high fire risk areas, and we've experienced nine downed conductor detection outages to date, any one of which could have led to a potential ignition. We'll continue to innovate and push to further increase our wildfire mitigation above the estimated 90-plus percent in place today. Here on Slide 6. You'll see our systematic approach that enables our 90-plus percent wildfire risk mitigation today. We've implemented our enhanced power line safety settings across 43,000 miles of high fire risk areas and select adjacent areas. With this systematic approach in place in 2022, we've seen a meaningful reduction in both the number of ignitions and size of fires when ignitions do occur. While ignition count alone is a primary indicator of wildfire risk, not all ignitions are the same in terms of consequence, which is why we've developed this new metric, the Ignition Impact Measure. It's simply the sum of acres burned by CPUC reportable ignitions on primary distribution assets in high fire risk areas. This measure proves to us that EPSS works. Due to our efforts in 2022, despite 36% more R3 risk days in 2022 relative to the 2018 through 2020 average, we've seen a 99% reduction in the ignition impact measure. Turning to Slide 7. We're committed to earning trust with policymakers in California, utilizing the simple, affordable model. The legislation on Undergrounding and the Diablo Canyon extension fit right into the simple affordable model, reducing financial risk by delivering safe, reliable, clean energy affordably to our customers. The benefits of the Undergrounding and Diablo Canyon extension bills are shown here on Slide 8. For Undergrounding, the major benefit versus the prior construct is the longer-term work plan, which leads to real cost savings for customers. The new law allows us to provide certainty to our workforce, create longer-term partnerships for material and equipment and inform our home counts about when they will benefit from their lines being buried. This long-term certainty is critical to accelerate permanent risk reduction of physical and financial risk for our customers. For the Diablo Canyon Power Plant extension, the new law is a key step to allow us to provide California with a large source of non-GHG emitting baseload power for another five years. The alternative would have been for us and other load-serving entities in California to procure more expensive baseload clean power to replace what is today over 8% of all of California's energy consumed, provided annually by Diablo Canyon. Replacing this power has proven challenging given clean energy supply constraints, and we estimate that this law will save customers several hundred million dollars relative to other potential baseload solutions. In addition to clean energy that provides savings to California electric customers, extending Diablo Canyon provides local jobs to over 1,000 PG&E coworkers and is a big boost to local businesses and the Central Coast economy. Moving to Slide 9. We are early on our journey with policymakers, earning trust and establishing the stability necessary to attract capital to invest on behalf of our customers. It started in 2019 with the passage of AB 1054. AB 1054 provides a framework to keep California utilities financially healthy while we do the work necessary to mitigate wildfire risk. Building on the AB 1054 Foundation, the two pieces of legislation passed in 2022 create the right outcomes for customers, mitigating physical risk and financial risk further enhancing the California regulatory construct. Looking ahead to 2023, we'll file our 10-year Undergrounding plan, informed by feedback we received from our various stakeholders and we've proposed to finalize our potential sale of a minority interest in Pacific Generation, an example of our continuous effort on efficient financing. Earning trust also requires that we fulfill our regulatory requirements and meet our standards. When we identify a shortcoming, we own that outcome, communicate transparently and take appropriate corrective actions. This week, we're doing just that. We filed a self-report with the CPUC for a pole inspection standard gap that was identified by a team of my coworkers. Our standard did not match the CPUC standard. We found it and are on track to remediate all of the highest risk polls in question by the end of the week. I've talked a lot about how we're using Lean here at PG&E. Our performance playbook is empowering our workforce and enabling us to make gaps to standards visible and allowing us to close the gaps, making us a better operator. This is an essential part of the turnaround and culture change here at PG&E. We need to have the will to change and the skills to execute. Our performance playbook enables both. Closing on Slide 10, our report card slide. You can see here how we're tracking on our goals for 2022 and beyond. We added the mosquito fire to our CPUC reportable ignitions greater than or equal to 100 acres. Though the investigation is not complete, we can see that the fire started near the base of our 60 kV steel pole. As Chris will discuss, we booked a liability for the mosquito fire of $100 million, which is well within our range of insurance. We will miss our gas main miles replacement as we reallocated some funding to other higher risk capital spend this year. This is a good example of our Lean operating system, making visible the best choices for our customers. We are comfortable making that visible to you too. You may also notice that we increased our annual rate base growth from 9% to 9.5% through 2026. Our customers expect us to make the right infrastructure investments and this investment reflects that. We will continue to do that and manage the affordability with our simple model. The other metrics are all on track, and we feel great about our progress. With that, I'll hand it over to Chris, who will discuss our financial and regulatory items.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. As Patti mentioned, we remain focused on delivering our financial commitments this year and we are reaffirming the five-year plan with our 2022 to 2026 earnings growth guidance remaining the same. This morning, I have a few updates to share with you. To start, I'll recap our third quarter financial results. Then I'll walk you through the details of our 2023 guidance. And lastly, I'll provide a few highlights on regulatory and legislative items. Let's start on Slide 11. With non-GAAP core earnings per share for the quarter coming in at $0.29, and at $0.84 for the first nine months, we're solidly on track to deliver the midpoint of our narrowed 2022 non-GAAP core EPS guidance of $1.10. As Patti mentioned, we took a charge of $100 million for the mosquito fire this quarter, an estimated impact that is well within our available $940 million wildfire insurance and does not factor into our walk here. We expect applicable self-insurance for this fire to be recoverable in CPUC and FERC grades. Earlier this week, the CPUC issued a proposed administrative enforcement order related to the 2020 dog fire. The proposed order recommends a penalty of $155 million. We'll look to work with the CPUC to resolve the issues identified in the proposed order as we have with other CPUC enforcement actions. While we're showing strong results year-to-date in 2022, some of the benefit is timing related and some of the benefit reflects conservative planning. But because of these efforts, we'll invest back into the system as part of maximizing every available resource for our customers and meet our commitments to you. As Patti referenced, our active efforts during the year have also allowed us to eliminate equity needs for 2022. Turning to Slide 12. With 2022 nearly complete, we're initiating 2023 guidance, consistent with our existing five-year guidance and reflective of our abundant customer safety and reliability capital investment opportunities, our 2023 non-GAAP core EPS guidance is up 10% from our 2022 midpoint at $1.21. It's reflected here within a tight range of $1.19 to $1.23. On the financing front, at the operating company, we expect to issue net long-term debt through 2023, largely in line with our planned CapEx less depreciation and our improved capital structure. An important part of our financing plan is the sale of a minority interest in Pacific Generation filed with the CPUC last month. This proposed transaction would allow customers to retain the benefits of our flexible and clean generation portfolio with no bill impact while providing a source of funding to be invested in the system for their benefit. Our plan to utilize efficient financing from the proposed minority interest sale, along with moderating our parent debt paydown, result in us projecting no equity issuance in 2023 or 2024. I want to reinforce that customer affordability remains at the forefront of all our decision-making as we turn to Slide 13. Moderating customer bill growth to at or below inflation is our guidepost. And the simple affordable model is how we will get there. Our proposed minority interest sale fits squarely into the efficient financing category shown here, with proceeds providing an alternative to equity issuance. As this transaction moves through the regulatory approval process with the proposed transaction close date in Q4 2023, we are not slowing down our pursuit of additional O&M cost reductions. Our annual 2% nonfuel O&M cost reduction target remains another key aspect of our simple affordable model. And we're making additional progress on this front in our 2023 general rate case which takes us to my last topic, our key regulatory and legislative updates. Starting at the top of Slide 14. We received a proposed decision in an alternate proposed decision in our 2022 Cost of Capital proceeding. Both the proposed decision and the alternate acknowledges an extraordinary event occurred and that no automatic adjustment mechanism should be implemented. The proposed decision calls for a second phase to determine the appropriate ROE for 2022, while the ultimate call for the ROE to remain at 10.25%. In the 2023 Cost of Capital case, we expect to see a proposed decision in November, which will allow for a final decision before the end of the year. Moving to the 2023 General Rate Case. This month, we filed a settlement agreement that provides for 100% wildfire liability self-insurance. This is a great outcome for customers with the potential for up to $1.8 billion in savings over the 2023 to 2026 GRC period, and here's how it works. If approved, the settlement allows for self-insurance to be funded through CPUC jurisdictional rates starting at $400 million for test year 2023 and subsequent years into $1 billion of unimpaired self-insurance is reached. Given the high cost of wildfire insurance, this was a priority for PG&E, TURN and CAL advocates, and we'd like to thank the parties for working collaboratively on a constructive outcome for customers. We're asking for a final decision by February 2023, so we can lock in the self-insurance option for the 2023 policy year. The remainder of the 2023 general rate case continues to move through the process, with the final decision scheduled for the third quarter of 2023. Moving down the slide, we've next summarized the status on our outstanding recoveries related to wildfire risk reduction investments. We have approximately $5.7 billion outstanding at the end of the quarter. Of this amount, approximately $800 million has already been approved for cost recovery through 2023, and we anticipate an additional roughly $1 billion in additional recoveries in 2023 overall. This month, the CPUC issued both a proposed decision and an alternate proposed decision on our 2020 wildfire mitigation and catastrophic events application. While we're glad to see the movement in this case, we're disappointed with the proposed decision both of which declined to adopt our settlement agreement in full, and we will be advocating for improvements. At the bottom of this slide, we highlight two important pieces of legislation signed by the Governor last month. SB 884 provides support for a 10-year Undergrounding plan, which we'll file in 2023. And SB 846 provides for the five-year extension of Diablo Canyon, which as Patti discussed, is a great outcome for our customers and our coworkers. I'll close on Slide 15 by reiterating that we are on track to deliver our 2022 financial targets, on plan to deliver predictable results and mitigate financial risk. Our five-year commitment remains unchanged. Non-GAAP core EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2022 to 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. With that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. As I wrap up our prepared remarks, I want to take a moment to thank Matt Fallon for his dedicated service to PG&E during a very difficult time. We wish Matt, our very best, and I know you do, too. By mitigating physical and financial risk for our customers and investors, we continue on our path toward making PG&E a premium utility, and we've made tremendous progress in 2022. We know we are rebuilding this utility in a way that can last. We are turning the page on our history, focused on the new PG&E story. We trust that you feel the momentum too. With that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Our first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey guys. Good morning.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning, Shahriar.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Good morning. So just maybe starting off with the new 9.5% rate base CAGR you put out there. I guess, what are some of the moving pieces that caused you to tick up by that 50 bps? Is it just confidence around the prior range that was provided by Undergrounding? Is it some of the investment opportunities from Diablo Canyon baseline CapEx up? Is it all the above? And I guess, can you just help bridge the driver of that increase? And is there any near-term opportunities that could further be incremental to that plan? Thanks.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Great question, Shahriar. Look, one thing that I have definitely learned is that we have a lot of work to do here at PG&E. And one thing that's been really interesting to watch is our new business applications. We have over 120,000 applications for new business in a given year. And so as we're always looking to allocate capital and making sure we're serving all of our regions appropriately and making sure we have the best service for our customers, regardless where they live in our service area, we knew that we needed to really make sure that we had enough capital deployed to make -- to serve that new business and certainly, the additional electrification that we're starting to see and our electric vehicle count continues to grow. And so capacity and new business will be a primary use. But as you can imagine, we do a lot of work on capital allocation and making sure that we can serve all of our regions well.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. And then just Patti, looking at sort of your early outlook for financing, you guys reduced equity to 24 down to 0 and now you're targeting about $2 billion more in debt paydown. I guess what are some of the moving pieces and being able to get the offset? And just to confirm, you're now embedding the proposed equity sale of Pacific Generation. What are you assuming there since this process is, I guess, in more infancy stages still? Thanks.
Chris Foster:
Hey, Shahriar, good morning. So I think, say, there's a couple of things moving around, obviously. But I think maybe the place to start is what are we solving for. I think Patti really hit it earlier, which is we've got substantial capital needs for the system. We're balancing that with going forward with the best economic decisions we can make on the financing itself. That's why you heard us say moderating at the holdco debt paydown, eliminating equity needs for '23 and '24 and we're going to continue to target that mid to high-teens FFO to debt guide through the plan. So that hasn't changed. So really, we're constantly managing the ups and downs. A couple of the examples to think about even in the last couple of years. Our San Francisco general office sale, the towers related lease transaction, and now we've got the Pacific Generation transaction as well. It is embedded in the plan, Shahriar? We've got a current assumption for a year-end 2023 resolution at the CPUC. But obviously, we're going to be managing conservatively there around timing. So hopefully, that helps paint the moving pieces for you a bit.
Shahriar Pourreza:
No it does. Fantastic. I'll jump back in the queue. So you guys [indiscernible] and congrats Mr. Fallon. Thanks guys. Bye.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks Shahriar.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steven Fleishman:
Yes, hi good morning. Thanks So great to see some of this progress and also great to see it getting reflected in the stock price recently, but obviously begs the question, just is there any color on the Fire Victim trust and how they're thinking about things now that the stock looks like it might actually be above where they got it at?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Steve. As you can imagine, we remain in continuous contact with the Fire Victim trust as given they are a large shareholder of the company. But at this point, it's definitely a very explicit decision in terms of execution of any kind of financing. Most recently, certainly, all of the saw in the market, roughly 35 million shares, just over, I think, about a month ago. So at this point, as you can imagine, it's tough for us to predict any future explicit transaction there.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. Good. And then just on the minority sale and looking at your rate base, is that -- is the rate base associated with that potential sale included in your rate base still? Could you just remind us how much that would be?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Steve. I think it's very limited is the way to think about it. You'd look at it and probably see about $0.03 total change. But that's in terms of our overall plan, that's pretty easy for us to manage here over that time frame. So really for us, it's about the efficient financing that this opportunity provides which is why this is really about the focus here over the next couple of years.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. But it's still in the rate base data. So we just make that adjustment once we see something that's not like pulled out already of the rate base?
Chris Foster:
That's correct. We'll be not explicitly pull it out. Yes, thanks for the clarifying question.
Steven Fleishman:
And then last question is just in terms of the overall financing environment and I guess combining with kind of IRA impacts. Could you just talk to whether the kind of higher cost financing environment and IRA and all those things are kind of embedded in this kind of refresh plan. Is there anything we need to be watching? Yes.
Chris Foster:
Yes, they definitely are embedded. In fact, we were able to update our general rate case here recently, which really showcased the next four years of IRA impacts. So really, you could see that no material impacts in terms of the overall plan itself in the five year plan. What I would offer is kind of two different points. So one, the customer benefits that can come here from the IRAs passenger substantial. We're talking probably over $0.5 billion over the next 10 years, just purely in customer savings from reduced pricing on the renewable energy contracts and PPAs that we pursue. Then in the near term, as we look at interest rate pressure, we've already assumed that rates continue to go up. And just as a reminder for us, in terms of a rule of thumb, you can probably look at a 100 basis point move for the company's up or down is roughly $0.02 up or down. So we've already managed roughly $60 million in impacts this year and are comfortable, again, managing that going forward.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Thanks for the updates.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for the time and congratulations on the continued success here really, really impressive. Just if I can clarifying a couple of things thus far. Your '23 outlook here. I mean, given the step-up in rate base, one might have thought there might have been a bigger jump in earnings here. Can you elaborate a little bit on the moving pieces here? Clearly, the front-end impact of a sale here of rate base, you said $0.03 a moment ago. What would be one of potentially a plurality of items here. But can you talk about it outside of just the conservatism in your plan? About the bigger step up in rate base versus earnings? And then separately, I'm just showing a quick second question at the same time. The '25 and '26 bio mission, are you saying that there's still kind of an equity balance sheet?
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Julien. A couple of things. First, as you know, we do plan conservatively, and that's how we can be confident in our forward-looking equity forecast as well as our -- in equity guidance as well as our earnings guidance. Our goal is to ride those ups and downs. And we still, as I mentioned, we'll see legacy items. We'll see items of opportunity, and we'll see items that we can invest back in the business. It is always going to be number one for us to be balancing affordability with quality of service. And so that's -- those are the trade-offs and the precision that we balance against. And so that's what drives our earnings forecast. We think that added 10% EPS growth, we feel good about that, and we feel good that we can consistently deliver, and that's what is most important to us and to our customers. And I think that's how we best serve investors as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. On '25 and '26, there? Maybe a Chris question.
Chris Foster:
Sure, Julien. I was just getting ready to jump in. Good morning. I think that as we look at the timing really around the Alpine -- excuse me, around the Pacific Generation sale. At this point, you can imagine we'll be getting greater certainty as we go into next year. We've got a midyear time frame of an initial view from the CPUC at least in what we've requested. And so once we can get further along there, I think once we also look at our dividend reinstatement, right? We're going to be able to give a better view on equity as we go out to '25 and '26. Certainly, at this point, just too early.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes. No, you give some. We want more right always.
Patricia Poppe:
We know Julien. We know. We're just keeping it on the straight and narrow here. Thank you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Indeed, congratulations and nice [indiscernible] Patti on bringing the conservatism back into the plan that we know you for.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Julien.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my question. Actually I have three. I apologize for three questions. I'll just rattle them off. I think two are probably for Chris, one for Patti. The two for Chris. Just curious, as you think out a few years, how much in the way of holding company debt do you want to keep up top? That's question one. Question two is, can you remind us what your cash tax position will be post-IRA and whether that impacts the level of cash taxes going forward? And then Patti, for you. Labor availability. I know labor rates for -- and I'm thinking a lot in aircraft and folks who work on the system. I know labor rates are up a lot, especially in your region. But are you seeing any challenges in the actual availability regardless of costs?
Patricia Poppe:
Okay. Chris, why don't you take the first two, and then I'll take number three.
Chris Foster:
Sure, happy to. Michael, it's here on the first one in terms of holdco debt. Again, as a reminder, we've got $4.75 billion in holdco debt at this point. And what we updated this morning is, as we're looking through the plan from now through 2026, we'd anticipate reducing that over $2 billion. So the $2 billion plus number that what we provided this morning. On cash taxes, at this stage, we were -- again, pretty specific in terms of our filing in terms of our general rate case specifically there. It's tough for me to be much more specific on cash taxes other than to say what we experienced in the five-year plan was really a generally offsetting impact from the corporate minimum tax and then the depreciation provisions that were embedded there. So really no material impact in the plan in the near term.
Patricia Poppe:
And then I'll go on to question three on the labor availability. Michael, it's a great question. And I'm really -- I just need to give a shout out to our labor partners, the ESC and the IBW have been extraordinary partners for us as we've been really turning around the company. And just one example, we felt like we were -- we could do a better job serving the Bay Area, specifically San Francisco and the City of Oakland, and we had a challenge staffing those communities. And we worked with our union. And in fact, we challenged ourselves to add a 100 new line workers for the city of San Francisco and Oakland. And we weren't sure we would be able to find those resources. And in fact, we have. And the beauty of that is, as we hired those line workers to work here at PG&E, we were able to actually save money because we were paying premiums for contractors and we ended up saving over $8 million by in-sourcing 100 new line workers. So it's really an incredible opportunity to work with our labor unions. People want to work at PG&E and we're able to attract that talent.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks Patti. Thanks Chris. Much appreciated.
Chris Foster:
Thanks Michael.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella from Credit Suisse Financial Services. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey good morning everyone. I dropped, so hopefully, I'm not repeating a question here. But I guess just since you kind of announced this minority interest sale and the strategy around Pacific Generation, have you had incomings of interest on the assets? And can you give us any kind of detail on how those conversations have been? And just overall interest in the assets would be helpful.
Chris Foster:
Hi, Nick, absolutely no. Thanks for the question. I know it's a busy morning. This hasn't been asked. So happy to give you color in lease in what we can. Again, the portfolio itself is one that is very clean, right? We're talking about 5.6 gigawatts with 75% of it plus is completely GHG free and a very straightforward predictable regulatory environment for these assets themselves. So because of that, certainly have had interest in the assets themselves. But let me maybe help give you some color on timing, right, and the time frame we're looking at. We have already filed the request of the CPUC for the ability to create the subsidiary at the utility. So the way I would think about this in terms of our timing, we'll be in that marketing process with counterparties in Q1 next year. So it's a little premature for me to give a whole lot of color other than to say definitely inbounds, definitely have had interest. But we want to make a little bit more progress first here on the underlying case itself before we get into those detailed diligence discussions.
Nicholas Campanella:
Got it. That's helpful. That's helpful. And then just on the credit side, a lot of positive data points across the board this year. The credit rate neutral securitization and you seem to be on the path to achieve the FFO to debt targets that you've wined out. Just what are the conversations with the agency has been? How should we just kind of think about timing to get back to investment grade at the holdco? Thanks.
Chris Foster:
Sure. Very focused there, Nick, as you can imagine. It's really two things for us. It's -- first, it's the quantitative measures, consistently focused there on FFO to debt, as we've talked about and we think that trajectory of mid to high teens puts us on that path to continue to walk up beyond the positive outlooks that we recently saw. Additionally, I think it's really important, some of the highlights that we were able to provide this morning show progress on the qualitative component. Patti really hit in detail the progress we're making with 99% risk reduction as it relates to our EPSS protocols. That's the essence of the improvements we need to be able to show operationally. Additionally, the final key piece is consistent, timely straightforward regulatory outcomes. And I think that that's what we're starting to see. We showcased both on the legislative and the regulatory side progress being made. On the legislative side with the Diablo Canyon legislation as well as Undergrounding. And then it's up to us to now file next year a comprehensive 10-year undergrounding plan and really execute that work effectively. Similarly on the regulatory side, I think that we've got right in front of us here, cost of capital-related decisions are going to be important to showing the rating agencies progress on, again, both quantitative, in terms of the FFO to debt, and then qualitative on both operational and regulatory efforts that are underway.
Nicholas Campanella:
All right. Thanks so much team and Matt. Pleasure working with you.
Chris Foster:
Thanks Nick.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Gregg Orrill from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, thank you. Good morning.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning, Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
So as you get to the point where you're tapping the wildfire fund. Can you please sort of remind me of the process there and the timeline? And if there's any sort of review around that and how you think about it?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Hi Gregg. I think there's a few steps that I can lay out there for you. So specifically, this would relate to the charges we've taken on the Dixie Fire, where the implication would be a roughly -- very small, but a roughly $150 million impact to the wildfire fund. So the way to think about this is -- we'll work our way through now with various legal claims themselves. Traditionally, takes -- you really don't get your arms around really the totality of the legal claims for roughly two to three years. Then we embark upon settlement and resolution or litigation of those claims. At that stage, you then move forward with a review at the CPUC of roughly 12 to 18 months, right? So you've got three years, then you add another 18 months for our filing related to prudency under the new AB 1054 improved construct. Only after that, once we've resolved and I believe the wording in the law is substantially resolved, most of the claims only then would you be knocking on the door of the wildfire fund for those recoveries. And so as you've seen at this stage in terms of our both -- the charge we took and the offsetting receivables, we are confident at this point that in terms of our actions at that location as a prudent operator to be able to have both recoveries above insurance at the CPUC and FERC as well as recoveries at the wildfire fund, but it will be a few years ahead of us.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay. Thank you. And then the realization of the tax benefits related to the Fire Victims Trust sales. What's the timing of how that comes through? How does that work?
Chris Foster:
So we recognize -- thank you, Gregg. We do recognize those tax benefits. You'd see those on a quarterly basis as we update each quarter because any time there is a sale, both the Fire Victim Trust enjoys the tax benefit as well as the company. So we would -- you would see that updated as the three sales have happened this year directly into our financials in the subsequent quarter.
Gregg Orrill:
Thanks very much. Congratulations.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Gregg.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks Gregg.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
David Arcaro:
Hi, good morning team. Thanks so much for taking my question.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning, David.
David Arcaro:
I was wondering if you could speak to the GRC. There was your recent update related to inflation had a fairly significant impact on just the higher rate base level that's getting requested there. Wondering if you could just give a sense of -- are those inflation numbers they were fairly mechanical, so are they real? How are you interpreting them in terms of the costs of the business for the next couple of years? And how might the commission interpret those inflation adjustments that were made?
Patricia Poppe:
It's a great question. We definitely are seeing inflation in our actual spend. We see that. But I think what's really important to think about as we look at our filings and our GRC and the inflation update, is our commitment to affordability for customers. And so as we look at the -- our bills here in California, we do have the benefit of mild weather in most parts of our state. And so that's one piece of the puzzle here that we're aware of that our energy bills are a lower percent of wallet than in many parts of the country. However, there are parts of our state where they are more energy intensive. And so we have a very important focus on affordability, and that's what the simple affordable model is all about. We know that our customers have been really anxious for us to invest in our infrastructure, make it more resilient, make it safer, make it more reliable and yet make it affordable. And so as we do our O&M cost reductions as we do efficient financing through things like our [indiscernible] sale, we have ways of offsetting the capital investment to the benefit of customers and customers will start to experience that in the coming years. And just -- here's one example. I was -- I'm sort of famous for a story of the month. So here's our story this month. In fact, it was a story of the week, if you will, because it seems like we're finding lots of opportunity all across the company. But we had an update this week from our vegetation management team and our sourcing team. We've come a long way using our lean performance playbook to standardize and improve many aspects of our business, but especially our vegetation management, which is a very important part of our safety measures here at the company. So we added visibility to the training and the safety standards for all of our contractors. We did a thorough review and removed outdated quality standards. We standardized unit rate contracts versus time and equipment contracts. We reduced our contractor count from 24 to 14 regionalizing them to better serve our hometowns. That -- this is going to be resulting for 2023 in a better customer experience, less repeat visits. I've talked about this on previous calls where we visited customer's home on multiple times to do our vegetation management work. So in this case, with all the improvements the team has made, we'll make less repeat visits to a customer's home at a lower cost. This is our performance playbook in action. The bottom line savings is going to be over $300 million just from standardizing smarter contracting and utilizing our performance playbook. That's the play we're running at PG&E. That's what's happening here. We're going to find ways to do better work for customers at a lower cost. So we are very zeroed in on making sure that we have an affordable service.
David Arcaro:
Great. Thanks. That's helpful color. And just related to the pacific generation sales. I was just wondering, are you able to give if that were to not be approved or if it gets delayed just how much equity might be needed into the plan in that alternative case?
Chris Foster:
Sure. I think in short, you can imagine this is exactly what we were mentioning earlier, is that we're constantly looking at internal cash management levers, regulatory levers to manage any variability for you. So I think that it wouldn't necessarily change anything. I think that's our point is that we're putting ourselves in a position with a more conservative plan to be sure that we can have the most efficient financing possible. And that's why this filing makes good sense.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Okay. Great. And then just last one. I was wondering any updates on just undergrounding in terms of cost forecast or technology improvements Patti, just what you're seeing on the undergrounding opportunity and how that's evolving after we've gotten the legislation now in place?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. So we're in the process of building out our tender plan as a result of that legislation and kudos to our legislators, for making a big decision and supporting that underground -- drafting and supporting that undergrounding legislation. That 10-year plan allows for better savings for customers. Fundamentally, we can have better workforce planning. We can have better equipment, we can have better long-term contracts, and we know that all of that results in savings for customers. We're seeing good progress this year. We've completed 165 miles of civil construction already. We'll do the final buttoning up of that work and expect to meet our target of 175 miles this year, which -- you'll remember, we did about 72 miles last year. So this is a huge improvement year-over-year. And many of those miles are coming in closer to the $2.5 million a mile than the original $3.7 million a mile. So we're really seeing progress. We continue to improve, and we're looking forward to being able to publicly file that 10-year plan in 2023, so we can share what the whole outlook looks like, including the cost forecast that go with it.
David Arcaro:
Great. Thanks so much.
Chris Foster:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ryan Levine from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Hi everybody.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
I appreciate the updates around. Good morning, Patti. I appreciate the updates around your equity issuance plan. Curious how you're currently thinking about your dividend policy, recognizing you need board approval. But in the context of the ability to return capital to shareholders -- how are you thinking about that given the pending transaction or potential transaction when closed until after a dividend decision would be made?
Chris Foster:
Ryan, thanks for the question. Again, I think we'll have maybe some initial insight. Remember, with regard to at least the current calendar we've provided to the commission and our request, which would have a mid-year initial view really of the transaction on Alpine. So it could go into our thinking a bit. But let me just take a step back. Remember that our eligibility for reinstating the dividend is when we hit $6.2 billion in non-GAAP core earnings. And so we are well on that path at this stage and would be at the point of eligibility midyear next year. I think what you have to emphasize though, and as Patti said, there's an awful lot of need for our customers in our system. So you should assume that it's actually a very small dividend initially -- at this point, and then we would feather it in over time. Obviously, going to spend time on that going into next year with our Board and be able to come forward with more detail when we can.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
We have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Patti Poppe for closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Julianne. Thank you everyone for joining us. We are looking forward to seeing you at EEI in just a couple of weeks, and we just hope that you are safe out there, and we look forward to seeing you in November.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PG&E Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Fallon, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Matt Fallon:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for PG&E’s second quarter earnings call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today’s discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company’s actual financial results are described in the second page of today’s second quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. The presentation can be found online, along with other information, at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2022. With that, I will hand it over to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I will focus on three key areas today
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti. We are on track to deliver our financial commitments this year. In addition, we are reaffirming our 2022 to 2026 earnings per share CAGR of 10% and reaffirming EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2022 to 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. As Patti mentioned, I am pleased to share that we just issued $3.9 billion of our rate neutral securitization bond at a weighted average rate of 5.05%. Our transaction completes a critical element of our reorganization financing plan, with a total of $7.5 billion of securitization bonds now issued. This contributes to our focus on near-term efficient financing. The recent actions by both S&P and Fitch on our credit ratings reflect increasing confidence in our plans to make the investment our customers need and affordably finance our system enhancement. This morning, I want to cover three key areas, where we are laser-focused on mitigating financial risk and delivering predictable outcomes for you, our investors. First, a recap of our second quarter and first half financial results and a reiteration of our full year guidance; second, a deeper dive into our results ownership center and how we are using that to execute from a simple and affordable model; and finally, a few highlights on important regulatory and legal matters. Slide 9 shows our second quarter and first half results. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.25 ended $0.55 for the first half of the year. We recorded non-GAAP core income of $536 million for the second quarter of 2022. This income keeps us on pace to hit the common stock dividend reinstatement eligibility criteria by mid-2023. Moving to Slide 10, our first half EPS growth is on target at $0.55, up $0.05 or 10% from last year. You can see our rate-based growth of $0.03 per share in the first half and another $0.04 projected for the second half, a clear reflection of our investments in customer priorities. Please also note our favorable cost performance of $0.04 so far and another $0.02 to $0.04 planned for the second half. Combined, this tracks nicely to our roughly $200 million or 2% non-fuel O&M reduction plan. What you do not see here in our yearly forecast are risks due to pension costs that we manage on behalf of our coworkers. Due to our longstanding pension recovery mechanism approved by the CPUC, we do not see an impact to earnings even with the current market volatility. There are other changes, including our regulatory agenda as well as tax and other items. And combined, this shows how we are delivering on our at least 10% EPS growth this year, consistent progress to deliver for our customers and investors. As shown next on Slide 11, we are reaffirming our non-GAAP core EPS of $1.07 to $1.13. We are also narrowing and lowering our equity range for 2022 and are now forecasting $0 million to $250 million in equity needs for the year. As we resolve legacy claims, which I will talk about a bit later, we maintain our confidence that our equity needs will be limited this year. Let’s move to our simple and affordable model. We adopted this model to help produce medium and long-term financial risk for both our customers and you, our investors. The model allows us to reduce risk for our customers holding down bill increases over time. And we will deliver on this model by using the lean operating system, which allows us to actively manage variability. It’s about evaluating and executing against opportunities like putting lasting fixes instead of temporary repairs in the system, which helps avoid expense in costs that would otherwise flow through right away to our customers. Our efforts on this front give us greater confidence in our financial targets for the long-term. It starts with lean and how my coworkers are using these proven techniques to manage performance, reducing medium and long-term financial risk. Turning to Slide 13, for the past 8 months, we have been maturing our process to bring improved visibility and control to executing our work plans affordably in a room we fondly refer to as the ROC, short for the Results Ownership Center. On the left hand side of the slide, you can see the elements of visibility and control. In the ROC, we hold a weekly cross-functional operating review focused on our plan and performance against our financial targets. This is the same method we have used to consistently deliver on our operational goals for our Wildfire Mitigation Plan over the last year. You have heard Patti say, we split the details, so you don’t have to. The ROC is where that statement comes to life. Additionally, we leveraged the 1-3-10 concept of visual management. Using consistently refreshed data, all attendees can tell within 1 second if our performance is on track; within 3 seconds, which way the metric is trending; and within 10 seconds, the recovery plan for any metric that is not on track. Managing all aspects of variability, as shown on the right hand side of the slide is how we deliver predictable results. When a key financial metric is off-track or trending off-track we identify it almost immediately, using current data, not month old or quarter old data. The conversation always includes who is doing what by when. And the resulting cash back plan will include a combination of short-term containment and long-term countermeasures. In addition to O&M and capital cost performance, our focus in the ROC this year has been on efficiencies in our contracted spending, evaluating productive time, expense to capital optimization that create lasting system enhancements for customers and internal staffing levels. Taking productive time, for example, in addition to the training rationalization Adam Wright discussed at Investor Day, we have also improved our time reporting this year based on an idea serviced at the ROC. Our coworkers in the field now explicitly report hours lost due to no work or work delays when they are not able to charge to a specific job. Having this data now readily available allows us to problem solve. Work delays can occur when a crew cannot access the customer’s property, for example, but with good planning, we can enable that crew with a backup job. The simple change to our time reporting has uncovered a huge opportunity to increase productive hours. And just a 1% improvement translates to approximately 30,000 more productive hours per month. You can imagine we are excited about how this can translate into better outcomes for the hometowns we serve. This example, along with our focus on first-time quality that Patti spoke to, and many others, is how through the ROC, our entire enterprise owns our financial results and not just members of the finance team. Again, visibility and control provide predictable results. Our focus is on delivering that for you, our customers and our investors. Now I will cover the key regulatory legislative and legal updates for the quarter. Turning to Slide 14, at the top, as I mentioned in opening, we have now issued a full $7.5 billion in rate neutral securitization bonds. We have used those proceeds to payoff $5 billion of utility temporary debt and will payoff the remaining $1 billion in the first quarter of 2023 as that debt becomes callable. The remaining proceeds will go towards paying down short-term borrowings at the utility. Completion of the securitization was a key aspect of improving our balance sheet. And as a result, last week, S&P moved us to Stable outlook. And in June, Fitch Ratings revised their outlook, moving us from Stable to Positive. Keeping with the theme of securitization, as expected, on June 29, the CPUC issued a favorable proposed decision granting our request to securitize up to approximately $1.4 billion of eligible AB 1054 capital expenditures previously found reasonable in the 2020 GRC. We expect a final vote on this proceeding on August 4, which – that timing keeps us on plan to proceed with a bond issuance later this year or early 2023. These securitizations are an important aspect of our financing plan, a stronger balance sheet, improved credit ratings and reduced borrowing spreads. Moving down the slide. We made substantial progress resolving legacy securities’ legal claims. The net impact we’re reflecting this quarter is $145 million. We believe this is a constructive outcome within our forecasted equity needs. Additionally, in connection with the 2019 Kincade fire and based on the status of discussions with certain subrogation entities and individual claimants, during this quarter, we recorded an incremental charge of $150 million for additional potential losses above available insurance. The movement you’re seeing in this bucket of legacy claims demonstrates our commitment to putting these litigation matters in the rearview mirror. And we’re making progress on these key legal matters while maintaining our focus on financing. As a reminder, we have now reduced and narrowed our 2022 equity needs range from $100 million to $400 million, down to a range of $0 to $250 million. Next on the slide, we summarize the status that are yet to be recovered wildfire-related spend. As you can see, we have approximately $5.2 billion outstanding at the end of the quarter. Of this amount, approximately $1 billion is approved for cost recovery in 2022 and 2023. Clearly, we still have more work to do, but just around the quarter in September, we plan to file our next WMCE application. And as a reminder, based on the CPUC schedule, we expect proposed decisions on both our 2020 and 2021 WMCE filings during Q4 this year. Together, these represent the majority of the $2.2 billion shown here as pending a final decision. And finally, at the bottom of this slide, we are highlighting our two outstanding cost of capital applications. The CPUC held oral arguments in the 2022 case last Friday, where we had a chance to reiterate our position that the cost of capital components should remain at pre-2022 levels for 2022. This month, the CPUC also issued a scoping memo in our 2023 cost of capital application. The commission accepted our request to include an updated cost of debt in September, which we think is constructive given where rates have moved. The schedule provides for a possible final decision of the CPUC last business meeting of the year on December 15. Before I move from key regulatory cases, just a brief update on the 2023 GRC for which we’ve requested a test year revenue requirement of $15.34 billion. On July 11, we submitted our rebuttal testimony responding to GRC proceeding stakeholders’ comments and recommendations. We continue to defend our request and is the next step for evidentiary hearing starting on August 15. We expect a final decision in the third quarter of 2023. I’ll close by reiterating that we’re on track to deliver our 2022 financial targets, using proven tools and techniques to lean to deliver predictable results, mitigating financial risk. Our commitment is worth repeating again, non-GAAP core EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2022 to 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. With that, I’ll hand it back to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. As we move through 2022, we’re focused on minimizing physical and financial risk. Our layers of protection start with system inspections, repairs, vegetation management, overhead hardening and our 10,000-mile undergrounding program, which provide long-term sustainable climate-resilient infrastructure. In the near-term, additional layers of protection are provided by engineered enhanced power line safety settings when fuel risk is high and our public safety power shutoff program during high wind events. Our coordination with local and statewide agencies and situational awareness and fast response continues to strengthen and reduce our physical risk and provide a final and essential layer of protection. To mitigate financial risk for customers and investors, we will continue to fully deploy our simple and affordable model. I’m pleased with the progress as I see our relationships and trust growing with policymakers and stakeholders here in California. PG&E is an essential contributor to California’s prosperity. We will keep an eye on the horizon and ensure we’re making the right investments to deliver California’s clean energy future. Something really exciting is blossoming here at PG&E. We feel the momentum, and we hope you do too. Operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Yes. Good morning, guys.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, could I ask as just a – could we get an update on the EPSS effectiveness you’re experiencing in ‘22? I know you spoke to the overall 90% risk mitigation, but are we still seeing that kind of 80% reduction that you talked about at the Analyst Day or is that – has that evolved somewhere?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Jonathan, first of all, as we talk about EPSS, let’s just step back for a second and remember that the objective was to end catastrophic wildfire. That’s the objective of the program. And for that, we have layers of protection, EPSS being one of them. So on EPSS effectiveness, we’re in the 70-plus range right now as we’ve gotten a larger sample size, and obviously, conditions are very challenging here in California, we feel good about that 70% because in concert with the 70% plus ignition reduction, the acres burned per ignition is dramatically lower in the plus 65% range. And so we feel like that is a really important sign of progress. And in fact, we’re working on a new metric, Jonathan. It’s not ready for prime time, but what we’re looking at is sort of an ignition times acres burned. And as we look back on previous years, we’ve seen significant improvement. We look at that, all of that driving towards the elimination of catastrophic wildfire. The other thing I’ll share on EPSS effectiveness that we feel good about is the duration of those outages has dropped dramatically year-over-year. In fact, we set a target for ourselves of 240 minutes, and we are well under that year-to-date. And so our operations team has done an extraordinary job responding to this new configuration of a system that, frankly, no one else in the industry at this scope and scale has this sort of safety measure in place. And we continue to have successful conversations with communities who are most impacted by EPSS. In fact, Pismo Beach is a good example a community down by San Luis Obispo was experiencing multiple outages. Our engineering team went and studied that circuit was able to make repairs and modifications and engineering improvements to significantly reduce the outages. And so we held webinars with the community and the local leaders gave us very positive feedback about our responsiveness. And so we just continue to be focused on our hometowns and making sure that we’re keeping everybody safe.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, guys.
Chris Foster:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Patti, I just wanted to maybe start off with the progress that’s being made on kind of multiple fronts in terms of physical de-risking, in particular, kind of how the undergrounding plans are evolving and just the general sensitivity of the CPUC around affordability. And just as a quick follow-up, understanding, like, the regulatory process is still ongoing, but – what are the current expectations from potential moves with legislation? And any updates around the RFP process where that stands from Jacobs on implementing the program? Thanks.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Thanks, Shar. Well, it’s great because undergrounding and affordability go hand-in-hand. Undergrounding is a great example of our simple and affordable model at work, where we’re going to be able to transition from a highly expense-intensive vegetation management program to more permanent corrective action, which is undergrounding the lines. As you may remember, when we filed our modification to the GRC, we added $7 billion of capital first couple of years of the undergrounding plan, and offset with $1 billion of expense reduction, resulting in a flat – no modification essentially to the rate increases of that ask. And so – we think it’s an important combination. I’ll just say we’re really pleased with the progress on the undergrounding bill. I think it shows a couple of things. Number one, our customers have been demanding that we invest in our infrastructure. I’ve seen so many quotes and headlines about PG&E, underinvested in its infrastructure. This is our pathway to investing in the infrastructure to keep our people safe and have a climate resilient energy system. Our legislators see the same thing. And they are working with us. Senate Bill 884 is making progress. We like the current draft. There is still – it’s still a live ball, I would say. There is still modifications that can be made, and so we’re continuing to work closely. But we like the idea that there is clarity to a long-term plan and clarity that the legislature expects us and will hold us accountable to completing this undergrounding plan. We want that, too. And so that accountability then translates into a 10-year plan and the OEIS and the CPUC are directed to review and approve that in a timely fashion, which allows us to save the most dollars for our customers. It allows us to do that massive infrastructure project at the most affordable price. It gives us the opportunity to better long-term contracts, better access to equipment at a lower cost, Staffing up a labor workforce to deliver that incredible infrastructure project. And so I just feel like undergrounding is such a perfect example of the simple affordable model at work and making the system safe.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Thank you, Patti. And just one last quick one in terms of the guidance, the reduction in equity needs is certainly really appreciated there. You have securitization getting debt off the balance sheet. Does that open some opportunity to maybe simplify financing means going forward? Thanks.
Chris Foster:
Hi, Shar, it does. I think if you look at equity, what we’ve said is that really looking forward to getting some of these important legacy items behind us, which we were able to make progress on including this quarter. That helped us refine and really narrow our equity guide for the year. And that’s really ultimately about a good financing plan that’s looking a couple of years out at any point. We also got, as you mentioned, the rate neutral securitization completely done here by midyear, which was nice because, ultimately – we’re initially unsure if we could get it all done at this point or if it was going to take us to the end of the year. And then on the debt side, ultimately, you’ve got a couple of things there, right? They are going to help us further simplify. First, we’ve got an 80 10 54 securitization. That’s really our next one coming up that we’re hoping to execute later this year or early next. And then along the same time frame, we’re probably going to be looking at ongoing needs for long-term debt which really just finance our rate base growth, and that’s consistent with our base financing plan.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Shar.
Chris Foster:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning, team. Thank you very much and congrats again on another quarter with a zero 100-acre-plus fire. So good stuff.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Absolutely. I want to recognize it. Maybe just more of a financial question, your equity issuance, can we talk about the reduced needs here and how to think about that in the long-term, obviously, moving things in the right direction here? Can you talk about just what drove that in part, but also more specifically, how we can think about longer-term means as well here? Especially if you want to avoid them considering what the stock is. So I appreciate the continued hustle.
Chris Foster:
Absolutely, Julien. And I think you said it that ultimately, our focus is going to be uncertainly where we’re trading at this point to have to make the best economic decision we can. And so obviously, looking at the 5-year plan at this stage, and really the focus is consistently on making sure that we’re putting these legacy items front and center because they are a driver for us. Specifically, you saw us resolve or make substantial progress and able to bound the securities claims right at $145 million. We’re making progress on the Kincade related claims. And so we’ve got a much better focus now with the increase we had there quarter-over-quarter on where that will land as well. And as you can imagine, those are two key drivers. As you look in future years, we are going to have fewer implications on that front. We are going to have – obviously, the odd fire is completely covered by insurance at this stage. So you can imagine, Julien, that really our folks is going to be on making it right with these communities where we need to. That’s going to be the core focus of the company. At the same time, we’ve got to actively manage our financing needs, which is I think what you’re seeing in the results of this year and bringing down the range from $1 million to $400 million down to $0 to $250 million this quarter.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes, absolutely. Let me pivot here to Diablo super quickly. How is the new AB 205 and 180 impact you guys as well as the federal efforts here? I mean, is that bill potentially able to help defray costs from the state back to the Fed in terms of paying for Diablo? And ultimately, I suppose the bottom line is also what does it mean financially for you all considering that you were going to have a fully appreciated asset in a couple of years there?
Patti Poppe:
So Julien, obviously, Diablo Canyon is very much on our minds. And so if we step back and just think about what is being discussed here and what the path forward is, first of all, it’s – we continue to remind all engaged parties that the clock is ticking here. we’ve got a real sense of urgency in order to transition from being in a decommissioning posture to a life extension posture. So the most important thing to us right now is that we get certainty on the decision-making. We have to secure tasks. We have to order fuel. There is some very near-term items that – actions that we would need to take if, in fact, we changed the posture of the plant. And so with that, we’re working very closely with the state first to understand what are the needs and what do we need to do to forward. This is not an easy option. Legislation will have to be passed. The permitting and relicensing of the facility is complex. And so there is a lot of hurdles to be overcome in order to move forward. However, we like the fact that, that plant’s value is being recognized by the state that there seems to be kind of a shift in the attitude about the role that nuclear can play in a GHG-free economy. And so obviously, our team at Diablo continues to do great work and earn the respect of the citizens of California and the policymakers as well. We do think that the DOE funding is a possibility. And certainly, the state has expressed interest in maximizing that and making sure that Diablo Canyon gets included in the DOE’s program to extend the life of nuclear. Again, nationally, I think there is been a real shift in attitude about the value of these baseload nuclear facilities. And so given that, we’re just going to continue to work through the financials, and that will be second to making sure that the plant is ready and safe and able to operate for the state.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And just financially for you guys, again, it’s a depreciated asset by about ‘25 here, right? I mean, we shouldn’t think about that earnings impact beyond any differently?
Chris Foster:
That’s accurate, Julien. At this stage, that was part of our prior agreement with the CPUC to fully depreciate the assets by the end of – we are talking in light of the second unit in 2025. We are also watching certainly the different pieces are moving on the state level. Patti did well that we are looking at the federal level. The state also has a resiliency fund that they are looking at. And additionally, you mentioned the specific piece of the legislation, including customer [indiscernible]. And certainly, I think that that’s a good example of the legislature acting on behalf of our customers and helping to lower cost. And so certainly, there is a financing advantage for – in that for us as well.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Alright. Excellent, guys. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Sunderland:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the time today. Maybe a quick follow-up on Diablo Canyon, you spoke to some of the hurdles there, but could you speak to the timing at all in terms of if there is a red line when you need to address a few of those items in switching from decommissioning to life extension?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. So legislation – we believe legislation – and it’s pretty well agreed that the legislation is required in order to change the permitting and relicensing time line. And so the legislature is – needs to pass any new laws by the end of April, April 30, and then they are signed by the governor in September. And so that really drives an important deadline for us. And in addition to the fact that we need to order cast and the fuel – and so given that the combination of that timing really does drive the decision-making.
Richard Sunderland:
Got it. Thank you. And then switching gears here, I am curious you could speak to the timeline and achievability of addressing the residual wildfire risk that’s on top of the 90% estimated mitigation today? Are these items that you are focused on in the near-term or sort of longer term aspirations as technology evolves?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. We are implementing new technologies as we speak, literally. In fact, when we look at the utilization of our smart meter technology to its full potential, it can identify risks and faults on the system, and we are already implementing that system-wide. So, that’s an additional layer of protection. Another layer of protection is on our secondary lines or down conductors. We have new settings that we can utilize and some new technology in a controller box that we are deploying out to the system as we speak. So, what I can tell you is every single day, we have a technology team who is focused on ending catastrophic wildfire. Our team at our advanced technology center, ATS, they are working night and day to come up with new and better technologies to deploy. So, we are not waiting, you can rest assured. And as the quarters progress, we will continue to share progress on those additional layers of protection that we are putting in.
Richard Sunderland:
Great. Thank you for the color.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on a good first half of the year. Real quickly, how are you thinking about Dixie, the Dixie Wildfire, and the potential for this to be the test case to kind of – I don’t know, see how AB 1054 actually gets put to work when it comes to a wildfire that may have over $1 billion in cost? Just kind of walk us through where that stands potentially? And is this going to be, in your view, the potential trial run to see how this all plays out?
Chris Foster:
Michael, happy to take it. I think that there is that potential. At this stage, as you know, we recorded $1.15 billion total impact. And so that would imply that the $150 million here could interact with the wildfire fund itself. I just have to emphasize this could take some time. I think in the interim, what we are very focused on, including with an accelerated claims process in the community is making sure that we have impacted families paid quickly. So, at this point, we have got over 100 claims that have come forward in that way and that have allowed us to compensate impacted local communities quickly. So, that’s the near-term. Over time, there is really the way to think about this is we have got our insurance layer itself, CPUC recoveries above that of roughly $360 million. You have got then FERC related recoveries of roughly $100 million. And then ultimately, the remainder will be tapping the wildfire fund. So, there could be time here before we really get to the stage of tapping the fund because the statute actually requires that you are substantially completed with your claims themselves before you move forward to the fund. I think in terms of the fact pattern and our operational prudency as it related to Dixie Fire, I think we have been quite clear that in terms of vegetation management, in terms of the management of our assets and the appropriate response. I think all of those things position us well for the recovery themselves at the various jurisdictions, including at the wildfire fund.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks Chris. And just one quick one, can you remind me when is the last date or the deadline for when either property or other claims have to be filed for Dixie?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing. So, there is two to keep in mind. The first would be personal injury statute of limitations, which runs from 2 years from the incident. And then property damage, which is 3 years. Those are the two primary drivers of claims and claims timing.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Chris. Much appreciate it guys.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Nick Campanella:
Hey. Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just ask about the pending wildfire legislation in the Senate here. I understand we are kind of in recess and this will go through August. But I believe there have been some amendments. And I am just curious, current bill as it stands today, if it was passed, how would that affect your plan? Is it acceptable in current form? And what should we kind of expect here as we get to the end of August?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. We feel good about the current draft. Some of the things that we did not like about the previous drafts have been removed. I think it was important for our legislatures – legislators and the authors of the bill to understand how important it was that the financial mechanisms be in place, so we can attract the high-value capital to fund the program. We know it’s important to you to have certainty for your clients to make sure that those moms and pops who invest their money in a utility can count on a predictable return. And so I think that was a really good understanding that we formed there. So, the language is good about cost recovery, the permitting assistance as well as especially the legislative direction to OEIS and the CPUC to support a 10-year plan, which would be outside the general rate case. An infrastructure project of this scope and scale is so important, it would be longer term. So, we can get the labor force ready, we can get the equipment ready, we can get the long-term contracts. That will save our customers the most money. We can do the program at the lowest total cost when we have that longer term plan. And so having visibility transparency and frankly, accountability to – for us to do what we said we are going to do and to get the unit cost where we want the unit cost. I think it’s in the best interest of everyone to have this kind of legislative direction to provide the certainty that we need. And just to remind you on timing, August 31 is the deadline for bills to be passed and sent to the governor. And then September 30 is the last day the governor can sign a bill. And so that will be the timing of that legislative activity.
Nick Campanella:
Great. Thanks. Appreciate that. And I know it’s just happened yesterday, but just Inflation Protection Act and the AMT specifically, if there is an alternative minimum tax, how does that affect the company? I mean just looking at the BBB example, maybe you have done some work there already?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. In fact, Nick, I was in Washington, D.C. 2 days ago, in fact, with a small group of CEOs focused on this climate package, encouraging its inclusion in this new program. And it’s amazing to me how much can happen in two days. And so we are excited about clean energy components of the package. We think that it will allow us to continue to grow the clean energy assets here in California by a variety of owners, not just the utility, but making sure that we have got that clean energy transition at the most economic and lowest societal cost. We are excited about the inclusion of hydrogen and the standalone storage credits. We are studying the implications for the EV credits, but it looks like the cap is being proposed to be lifted, which would be good and important here in California because EVs are such an important part of our future. Of course, like I would suppose most businesses, we don’t love the corporate minimum tax. For us, it is a pass-through, which is why we don’t like it. It puts affordability pressure directly on our customers. And so there is obviously a lot of discussion about that. We will continue to work our simple and affordable model, however, and we will ride that rollercoaster so you don’t have to. We will make the necessary adjustments to continue to build our funding, our infrastructure for our customers as they would wish and lower costs in a variety of areas, if, in fact, that additional cost gets borne by our customers.
Nick Campanella:
Got it. Thanks. I appreciate that. Just one more follow-up, if I can, just on the Victims Trust, I think we have seen some turnover in the folks that are running the trust and just kind of curious on what the conversations have been of late, if you could provide any kind of color on the relationship or just in general, your ability to align yourself even more than before there?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Nick, thanks for asking the question. I had a very productive conversation with the new administrator, Cathy Yanni. She is a professional. She has been in this business for many – well, her whole career, and she was very impressive to me. I was happy to have a chance to talk with her. We clarify – I clarified for her that we want what they want. We want to maximize the value of this agreement that was made on behalf of victims. And obviously, our stock price has an impact on that and their actions with the volume of shares that they own have an impact on the stock price. And so we talked about that, and we talked about how working together could be very beneficial to the victims and that’s our sole focus. And again, we want what they want, to make it right. And we obviously think working together with them is more productive than working independently. However, they have been clear that they want to make sure that they get certainty around the dollars that they will have available to distribute to victims. And if you check their website, you can see they have made a significant progress in disbursing funds. She is very focused on doing that efficiently and effectively, and so certainty helps them. Bottom line, we want what they want, and we will look forward to continuing to work with them.
Nick Campanella:
Alright. Thanks for everything today.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Nick.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Gregg Orrill with UBS. Please go ahead.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes. Hi. Good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning Gregg.
Gregg Orrill:
So, maybe following up on Nick’s question, are you looking at additional ways to provide certainty to the fire victims?
Patti Poppe:
I – the ball is really in their court. They own the stock, and it’s up to them how they want to disperse it.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay, got it. And then just on the wildfire-related cost recovery, the $5.2 billion, could you tie that back to recoveries timeline and how that sort of quantify the improvement in FFO to debt? Would it tie back to the credit measures?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing, Gregg. I think that this is going to be a key for the company over the next, really, 2 years, primarily with the majority of the funds coming in 2023 and 2024, and then help us from a cash flow perspective. The things to keep in mind are really two. First, quarter-over-quarter, the overall increase that you saw, a move of roughly $0.5 billion was directly related to prior vegetation management work that was critical for the system. Second thing to keep in mind is that we do have two important data points here that are expected in Q4, which is the resolution of both the 2020 Wildfire Mitigation and Catastrophic Event or WMCE related account as well as the 2021. When you look at those two together, that’s roughly the $2.2 billion that we have talked about. So, those are going to be key in terms of getting resolution there and then keeping us on track for our FFO guidance.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
David Arcaro:
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning David.
David Arcaro:
Wanted to check in on load growth and what you are seeing this year. I know longer term, you have got targets and it’s an important component to reduce the customer bill impact from your rate base growth over time. And that’s driven by longer term programs around electrification and EVs. But I guess I am curious what you are seeing currently this year and expectations for the rest for the year in terms of loan growth?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. So, we are continuing to look at that. We definitely see continued load growth. It’s lower at this early part of our 5-year plan. At the latter part of the 5-year plan and then going into the 10-year plan, we see significantly more forecast. It will be interesting to see if the additional incentives on EVs accelerate adoption here in California. But as we have said, 1% to 3% is in our long-term forecast.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Great. Thanks for that. And then, Patti, you mentioned a couple of technology aspects, the partial voltage detection, down conductor programs just to kind of attack that last 10% of the risk. When will we see maybe programs like that get officially rolled out or target set in place and kind of quantified?
Patti Poppe:
Well, the partial voltage detection through our smart meters is deployed. That is deployed as we speak. And so, we are learning a lot as we get those partial voltage alarms. We have a 60-minute response time. We are trying to narrow that into even less than that, so we can get out and observe the situation and find out if it is in fact unsafe. And so in the coming months, you will get more – we will share more insights with you on what we are learning there. Again, that’s an infrequent occurrence, but it is an occurrence. And then the down conductor, I think has a ton of potential. It does require new hardware. Some of the hardware that we have on the system can be reprogrammed and so we are doing that as we speak, but there is new hardware that needs to be deployed, and some of that is caught up in the supply chain constraints globally. And so we are continuing to work to accelerate the implementation of these particular controller boxes and we look forward to sharing news on progress on that as well. We definitely have already experienced down conductors that have been identified by this equipment and de-energized automatically. We are seeing the benefits of it. But it’s on a smaller scale than EPSS where we have it 100% deployed. So, in the coming months, we will share more about the deployment and the completion of the installation of that hardware.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
You’re welcome. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Throughout the call, you highlighted that the AB 1054 and the August 31st deadline for pending legislation within the state, given that we are nearing a deadline, are there any other processes or legislation, legislative bills that could be introduced at the last minute here as we work towards the deadline?
Patti Poppe:
We are – I am happy to report that our team is very engaged in Sacramento, has a good pulse on what’s coming. And at this stage, bills have had to have been introduced. There is procedurally, it’s now an abandonment can be added to an existing package, and so we have to be on the lookout for that. But we don’t have any alarm bells on the horizon at this stage.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then on the undergrounding effort, what progress has the company made on RFPs and other contracting efforts for undergrounding packages over the last few months?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. We are not complete on the selection of our final partners that we will be selecting, but we will definitely make that public when we do. I am happy to report we have already underground more miles of line this year than we did in the entire year last year. So, we have accelerated our capabilities and the team is just continuing to make great progress.
Ryan Levine:
And then last question for me. In terms of the engagement with Victims Trust, you highlighted your recent meeting, but in terms of the overall cadence or pace of engagement has it started to pick up with the change in leadership of the organization, or have things been relatively consistent over the last six months to nine months?
Patti Poppe:
I would say it’s been consistent, but maybe over the last six months. I would suggest that we have had a lot of conversations in the last six months, helping the trust to understand what’s happening with the equity price, why it is, what it is and what we can do together to really serve the victims best.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
At this time, I will turn the conference back over to Patti for any closing remarks.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Regina. Well, thanks, everyone. We know it’s a busy day for you. And as I said in my prepared remarks, something special is happening here at PG&E, and we can feel the momentum. And I really hope you are feeling it, too. Have a great afternoon. Be safe out there.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that will conclude today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by. My name is Cheryl, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Pacific Gas & Electric Corporation First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Matt Fallon, Senior Director of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference
Matthew Fallon:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for PG&E's first quarter earnings call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's first quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. The presentation can be found online, along with other information at investor.pgcorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. With that, I'll hand it over to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'm happy to report that we earned $0.30 in non-GAAP core EPS in the first quarter, and we're on track to deliver our 2022 non-GAAP core EPS guidance of $1.07 to $1.13. We believe in delivering at least 10% EPS growth for you as investors, this year, next year and the following year and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026, putting any annual surplus performance to work for important customer needs, a win for customers and investors. We're underway on my second year here at PG&E with a world-class purpose-driven team focused every day on the triple bottom line, serving people, the planet and California's prosperity. We'll deliver on our triple bottom line by mitigating physical risk and by mitigating financial risk as seen here on Slide 4. We're changing the culture and building new capabilities at PG&E. Our culture is shifting to one of service and performance. We're rebuilding our team's confidence that we will deliver for our hometown. We will serve our planet, and we will lead with love. We've been enabling our leaders to challenge assumptions they have about how and why we do the work that we do. Our culture is an important ingredient in our turnaround here at PG&E. I'm very pleased with the progress that I'm seeing. For our customers and you, our investors, to believe that things have changed here at PG&E, my coworkers have to believe and experience the change themselves. One way to help people experience a new and improved PG&E on the inside is through building the capabilities of our team through our lean operating system. I learned long ago that the customer experience can be improved while we are reducing the cost to deliver. In fact, they often go hand in hand. Improving our work processes takes all of us every day using our visual management tools and our daily, weekly and monthly operating review cadence to manage our performance. We can then identify our gaps and deploy problem solving to address them and set new standards to prevent reoccurrence of the problems. By changing our culture and building our lean capabilities, we're enabling the mitigation of physical risk and financial risk. On wildfire, we're confident that we have the right tools in place to mitigate this risk through EPSS and PSPS as well as making our system safer every day with our extensive inspection program and vegetation management work. And we're ramping up our ultimate solution, our undergrounding program which is designed to permanently reduce physical risk on our highest risk miles. To mitigate financial risk, we're planning to keep customer costs down even as we invest in our system by utilizing our simple and affordable model. And to further mitigate financial risk, we're also focused on paying down debt and delivering on our 5-year non-GAAP core EPS CAGR of 10%. This premium return is driven by our simple and affordable model being on Slide 5. There are many opportunities for us in 2022 and beyond that allow us to invest in necessary and high-value improvements to our electric and gas energy system while reducing the cost to deliver. Let me share an example of the simple affordable model in action. At the end of February, we filed an update to our 2023 general rate case. In the update, we've included the additional $7 billion of capital for our undergrounding plan through 2026 and and an offsetting $1 billion in expense, resulting in a similar revenue level to what we filed in our initial application last summer. We have confidence in our ability to execute these efficiencies due to the use of our lean operating system. For example, as a result of the first year of using lean to drive our vegetation management work we achieved a roughly 16% reduction in program unit costs. This is a big deal. We can make our systems safe with the right investments and keep customer bills affordable that benefits both customers and investors. It is not complicated. In addition to mitigating financial risk with our simple and affordable model, we're mitigating physical risks for our customers. As I mentioned, we plan to make enhanced power line safety settings capable on all circuits in our high fire risk areas this year. As a reminder, on the circuits where we enable these settings in 2021, we saw an 80% reduction in CPUC reportable ignitions. This is the first time we have seen any material reduction in ignition since we have been tracking them. Also, we'll continue to utilize public safety power shutoffs when we encounter dangerous and extreme weather conditions, building on improvements we made in 2021. When we backcast our power shutoff protocols, our analysis shows that we would have prevented 96% of the structures damaged from 2012 through 2020 from catastrophic wildfires. To inform our PSPS protocols, we use billions of data points including PG&E's 31-year weather climatology study to forecast hourly probability of large and catastrophic fires. In addition, we leveraged hundreds of millions of fire spread stimulations each day to help inform our PSPS protocols. Our PSPS algorithms use state-of-the-art machine learning models to increase predictive capability. The technology and data science that underpins our PSPS capabilities is extraordinary. We know shutting off power cannot be a permanent solution. Therefore, 2022 is an important and exciting year for us to learn from our experience in the field on undergrounding our lines. There's a lot of support and interest in our undergrounding plans. In fact, both the California State Senate and State Assembly have legislation focused on utility undergrounding this session. Senate Bill 884 and Assembly Bill 28 89 were recently passed out of their respective legislative energy and utilities committees. This is good progress. We're optimistic that the legislature will work toward a solid solution that's good for customers and attract the investor capital needed to vary the risk. We actually have a new thing around here. How do you rebuild PG&E? From the underground up and we are on our way. Turning to Slide 7. You and my coworkers have heard me talk about leading with love. Many people wonder what is that? Leading with love. Let me give you an example. At PG&E, my coworkers are responsible for keeping themselves and each other safe on the job. While we improved our DART performance, which is a measurement of injuries on the job in 2020, we knew we could be even safer in 2021. I'd like to say, even after best-ever performance, we are still dissatisfied. We found that by utilizing the simple plays from our ClearSky lean playbook, we were able to problem solve and prevent injuries with simple and effective action plans every day. We reduced our DART rate by 25% in 2021 relative to 2020. And as you can see here on Slide 7, we continue to improve this year, which reflects a 75% injury rate reduction since 2019. Coworker safety is where a culture change must start. Teaching people how to deliver and enabling them to believe in their own capability that is leading with love. Another example of the culture shift we are causing here involves our permitting team. I will never forget about a year ago at our first undergrounding planning session, we asked our permitting team what would have to be true to bury 10,000 miles of line. Everyone kept saying that permitting would be impossible. Our permits team stood up and declared. We are not going to be the problem, give us a solid long-term plan and we can get the permits. Come to us a day or a couple of weeks before we need the permit and then we have a problem. It is so true. Everything hinges on solid, long-term plans and well-designed workflow. We all know great plans to deliver predictable outcomes. As we've started to scale the underground program, we've already seen improvements in our permitting process cycle times, something that will set us up for success as we double the miles every year in the next couple of years. Specifically, we've seen an almost 50% reduction in the time it takes to produce and receive approval for detailed design drawings. Our first major underground project took 13 months to design and receive subsequent approval from local agencies, 13 months. Through a focus on implementing standard repeatable processes inside of PGME based on agency feedback and by building associated skills, we've reduced the review and approval time there to 5 months. That is real progress. We are making it right and making it safe at PG&E. I can't think of a better way to lead with loves than that. Before I hand it over to Chris, I'll end with our report card, which you can see here on Slide 8. We chose these metrics to show you where our focus is, culture and capability delivering consistent, predictable outcomes through 2022 and beyond. One metric I want to hit is our annual CPUC reportable ignitions in our high fire risk areas. The reason this metric is important is because fires over 100 acres accounted for 97% of the structures damaged in our service area from 2015, 2021. We have our eyes and our efforts focused on this one. Moving on in the report card. As you can see, as of quarter end, we're on track to hit our annual 2022 targets. Specifically, we're happy to report that we're on track with our miles underground to date target. We varied 41 miles against a plan of 34 year-to-date and are picking up speed. Now I'll hand it over to Chris to cover our financial and regulatory items.
Christopher Foster:
Thank you, Patti. As Patti referenced on the report card slide, we are on track to deliver our 2022 financial commitments. Today, we're reaffirming our 2022 to 2026 earnings per share CAGR of 10% and also reaffirming EPS growth of at least 10% each year in 2022 to 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. This morning, I'll cover 3 areas which tie directly to our focus on mitigating financial risk. First, our positive financial results. Second, how we're putting the simple, affordable model Paddy mentioned into practice with a few key examples. And finally, our progress on key regulatory and legal matters. Even with the financial impact from the legal items, our 2022 equity guidance remains the same at $100 million to $400 million. Slide 9 shows the results for the first quarter. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.30. We recorded GAAP income of $475 million, including noncore items for the first quarter of 2022. This means we've recorded cumulative positive GAAP earnings of $253 million for the most recent 4 consecutive quarters, which means we have met the eligibility requirements for S&P 500 index inclusion. On Slide 10, we show the quarter-over-quarter comparison for non-GAAP core earnings of $0.23 per share for Q1 2021 versus $0.30 per share for Q1 2022. EPS increased by $0.03 due to cost reductions in the first quarter, $0.02 of benefit were derived from rate base growth and timing of taxes contributed $0.02 quarter-over-quarter. As we experienced some timing benefit in the quarter, overall results were in line with our expectations, and our first quarter results put us on track to hit our full year 2022 guidance. Moving to Slide 11. We're reaffirming our non-GAAP core EPS of $1.07 to $1.13. As you can see here, our 2022 equity guidance remains $100 million to $400 million. As Patti mentioned in late February, we filed updated testimony in our 2023 generate case and our 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. In the update, we included the capital for roughly 1/3 of our undergoing program as well as the additional expense from the expansion of our EPSS program, offset by a reduction in vegetation management and other expense across the business. The impact of the increase in undergrounding miles is included here on Slide 12 and reflected in our approximately 9% rate base CAGR. Next, I'll cover some specific examples of the simple affordable model we've adopted that will help reduce financial risk for customers and you, our investors, for the medium and long term. Here on Slide 13, we're providing a purely illustrative view of how our targeted 2% nonfuel O&M reduction can be achieved. For example, we are reducing costs from our suppliers as shown in the indicative $150 million here. We will externally source nearly $11 billion this year to execute our core work. But our focus is on efficient purchasing of materials and support, employing solid industry practices rather than unnecessarily unique standard and stabilizing our requirements with longer-term contracts. We value our supplier partners, and they are an important part of our team and they'll benefit for more certainty to produce more efficient outcomes. We are also reducing on costs this year and in the coming years through modifying our work to shift from quick repairs to more permanent improvements. This means moving on at a customer experience all at once to capital work with cost recovery over a longer period. To give you a sense of the long-term opportunity, our 2020 CapEx to O&M ratio was roughly $0.90 compared to the industry average closer to $1.40. You can bet that we have our eye on that benchmark. We're already using our leading capabilities to stabilize and improve our work planning to drive meaningful improvement. Examples I just covered are important for us for over the next 10 years, but I want to emphasize that incremental improvements are happening now. This year, we are implementing a new scheduling and dispatch platform and some functionality is already being deployed to frontline supervisors and it's allowing for daily visibility for work assignments. Supervisors confirm what work is going out each morning, and what is getting completed by the end of the day. Automated reports will be leveraged to show crew productive time and the related mix of capital versus expense. You've heard us talk about visual management as part of our lean operating system. This is putting it to work to manage a portfolio of over $3 billion a year. Already this year, we've seen quantifiable improvements in our work execution. While our gas maintenance and construction crews have historically performed mostly expense work, they are now averaging approximately 40% in capital. We have a number of smart ways to do our work better, more affordably. You'll hear more about these cost reduction programs at our Investor Day this June. Before moving off this slide, I want to point out that there's also a big cost increase shown here. Costs go up every year. And as we enter a period of high inflation, we're planning on it. The cost savings we're focused on are large enough to offset these increases and deliver a net savings of 2%. Now I'll transition to a few key regulatory and legal updates. Earlier, I referenced our equity needs are unchanged. On the debt side, we're focused on meeting our debt paydown commitments. To that end, I'm pleased to share that the final legal steps have been resolved on our rate neutral securitization request, and we are on track. We intend to price a first series in the next few days. As a reminder, we have CPUC authorization to issue a full $7.5 billion program in up to 3 series. The proceeds of these bonds will primarily go towards paying down $6 billion of temporary utility debt. This transaction was designed to improve PG&E credit metrics, and we look forward to fully executing this important piece of the financial plan. We've also filed an application to issue our second series of AB 1054 authorized wildfire mitigation capital expenditure securitization. We expect a decision in that proceeding later this year. This is an important opportunity to finance critical wildfire risk mitigation work at affordable rates for customers. Along with our deleveraging efforts, our focus on balance sheet health also includes timely recovery of wildfire-related spend. Turning to Slide 14. In the first quarter, the CPC issued a final decision on our 2018 CMA case, and we anticipate collecting that outstanding balance over a 12-month period for the terms of the settlement agreement. Cost recovery of another approximately $2 billion of previously incurred wildfire-related spend is pending a final decision from the CPUC. We are expecting proposed decisions in both of our outstanding Wines cases in the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of historical wildfire impacts, we continue to make good progress on important legacy legal matters. Earlier this month, we announced that we reached settlement agreements to resolve legal proceedings around the 2019 Kincade Fire and the 2021 DCF. As a result of these agreements, criminal charges for the Kincade fire are dismissed and the relevant district attorneys will not pursue criminal charges for the Dixie fire. While we have long stated, we do not believe these fires were the result of criminal conduct, this is a constructive outcome that enables us to continue to invest in making our systems safer every day. As I mentioned earlier, these settlements have not changed our equity guidance for 2022. Additionally, our previously recorded liabilities for estimated third-party claims for the 2018 Zog fire, the 2019 10-K fire and the 2020 Dixfire have not changed during the first quarter. And we are also engaged in settlement efforts to dissolve the securities claims that rode through the Chapter 11 process. Next, I'll cover a brief update on our cost of capital applications pending at the CPUC. In our outstanding 2022 application, we demonstrated extraordinary events warning and departure from the cost of capital mechanism and argue that the cost of capital components should remain at the pre-2022 level. Separately, on April 20, we filed our 2023 cost of capital application. We are requesting an 11% return on equity. Consistent with the details in our application, we believe this ROE is fair and necessary. We've made the case that this reflects an appropriate return on equity for PG&E which reflects a higher risk premium, driven by our current credit rating and the substantial stock discount we trade at relative to our peers. On the FERC side, in mid-March, we received a decision on our TO 2018 filing, as well as a favorable Nice Circuit Court decision, providing support for our 50 basis point California-specific adder. We have filed for rehearing on the TO 2018 case. These outcomes only impact prior periods. As a reminder, our FERC approved current return on equity through 2023 is 10.45%. I'll close by reiterating that we're mitigating financial risk by delivering stable financial results. Non-GAAP core EPS growth of at least 10% per year in 2022 to 2024 and at least 9% in 2025 and 2026. We're on track to deliver our 2022 financial targets while also running the business with a focus on the long term. We'll continue to make the right investments for our customers, both in terms of risk mitigation and affordability. And with that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. As we move through 2022, you can see how we are squarely focused on minimizing physical risk and financial risk. System resiliency, including our 10,000-mile undergrounding program provides long-term sustainable wildfire risk mitigation. In the near term. We continue with our engineered enhanced power line safety settings where fuel risk is high and our public safety power shutoff program during high wind events. Ultimately, we are investing in a hardened system that is resilient to the effects of climate change. To mitigate financial risk for our customers and our investors. We will continue to make the right investments affordably. We're focused on creating the culture and the capability we need, allowing us to execute on these operational and financial imperatives. We'll keep an eye on the horizon and ensure we're making the right investments to deliver California's safe, reliable, resilient and clean energy future. That's the way we serve customers and you, our investors. On a final note, many of you came to see us last August in California this June, we're coming to see you. We hope you can join us at our Investor Day on Friday, June 10, in New York City. We look forward to seeing you there. With that, operator, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Patti, just a question on undergrounding. I know you obviously highlighted the legislative initiatives that are out there. zeroing in particular to 884, there's obviously some questionable constructs proposed like earnings deferral. I mean, we appreciate that it's kind of early in the session. But do you see a need for legislative improvement? And is this Senate bill in palatable would you even spend capital with this bill? And if the bill makes it out of the chamber at all, do you see that as a setting sort of a bid ask for negotiations or some sort of a construct later on? So just maybe more specific thoughts there.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Obviously, it's top of mind, Shar, and we appreciate the question. And you said it, it is early, that's the bottom line on this. I'm learning about the California legislative process, but I am assured that there's lots of opportunity for us to find a great outcome. The good news is people love undergrounding. So we're happy that the customers and our communities are responding very favorably to our proposals, and we're happy to see the progress that the team is delivering. And so I'm very confident very confident they're going to find a pathway to a really good outcome. And I'll say that even in Senate Bill 4, there are some good elements there about permitting and partnership with telecom. There's a lot that could really be assisted legislatively. But I will also add that our plan doesn't contemplate legislation. Our plan stands on its own, and we certainly can make good progress without any legislation. And so we'll be working closely with key policymakers to make sure it's a great outcome for customers and investors.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect. And then just one last one on the wildfire victims fund. I mean, obviously, we saw the fund going to market with shares twice this year. there were some perceptions of need for maybe improved alignment after the first tranche was sold, which obviously didn't happen. Do you get a sense that the fund doesn't see a need to align a coal market with PG&E maybe from a political standpoint after these deals. I mean, at this point, do you think it's fair to assume continued selling when we see positive news from PCG post lockup periods. And have there been any like opportunities for refreshed conversation or feedback with the fund?
Christopher Foster:
Shahriar, it's Chris. There's a lot there. Let me just kind of try to tackle the different pieces there. So just in terms of where we are at this point. So from the company standpoint, PTs completed all the cash payments to the trust of about $6.75 billion. The total so far, the trust has sold about 100 million shares. So call that roughly another $1.2 billion. And at this stage, we certainly think it could be advantageous if the company has the opportunity to co-market alongside them for a public offering. And so there's very open communication lines there. And I know there's a lot of interest here in the selling patterns of the trust. I'd just say the trust really has its own fiduciary interests. And they're going to independently make those decisions on whether and when and how they're going to sell the stock. But I do want to emphasize, Shahriar, we've had that dialogue and provided the trust advisers really with some of the investor feedback following the recent sales, and we're absolutely ready to cooperate under the terms of the registration rights agreement that we've got. Because ultimately, the focus here, as you can imagine, is on -- for them and for our investors is to continue to focus on is going financial risk mitigation, and that's going to provide clear value to really all parties here. So we've got a lot of alignment at its core.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research.
Steven Fleishman:
So just on the -- sorry to ask on the same topics, and it tends to be a popular one. The -- there was these stories the last week or 2 about a potential involvement of the trust seeking like a loan from the California government, I guess, to deal with getting cash instead of directly selling shares. Is there any update in that process? And -- is that something that you're involved in at all? Or -- yes.
Christopher Foster:
Steve, I'm happy to take it. is tough to speculate, as you can imagine on where some of that would eventually land. I think there's kind of 2 different concepts at high levels that have been discussed that we've certainly seen in the media. The first would be this concept of would there be the potential to tap the wildfire fund itself. We've obviously got concerns about that, as you can imagine, for purposes of the importance of the fund being there as a backstop for all Alon utilities. The second alternative more recently that was referenced in terms of a potential loan from the state in order to provide more time and more growth for the company's underlying stock value. Again, tough to know if there's explicit traction there. Again, I would say, certainly, our state is in a budget surplus position but just tough to know where that will land specifically. I think our focus has been more on educating and ensuring that there's alignment on the fact that the wildfire fund itself, it's important to protect that as a foundational tool for downside risk for all California utilities.
Steven Fleishman:
Great. Other question is just the new -- we've had the 2 new commissioners now in place for, I guess, months now, and it's been very quiet, which is, I guess, kind of nice in California. But just maybe curious, any sense you're getting from the commission on priorities for the year? And they have a lot of different things on their plate just ranging from cost of capital to net metering to obviously, electrification and clean energy? So just any better sense of priorities of the new President and commission?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Well, as we've said before, Steve, we are very grateful to have talented and capable commissioners. And Alice and John were 2 great additions to the commission based on their experience and their knowledge of California energy and energy challenges. And so what we expect is their priorities are very much aligned with our own. Affordability is obviously an important topic here in California. And I think nationally as inflation is starting to pressure families affordability is an impure topic, which is what makes our simple and affordable model so important. And it will be great for us to be able to build trust with the commission when they start to see the simple and affordable model in action as they were able to see in this GRC update that we made that showed that we could invest in undergrounding, reduce expense and keep the request about the same. That was the first sort of, I would say, public example of that simple and affordable model in action. And so we do look forward to working with the commission on making sure that our energy is affordable, safe, reliable and resilient. And so as you said, there's a lot of priorities and I'm convinced that the commission is very capable to deal with those priorities as is the team here at PG&E.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jonathan Arnold of Vertical Research Partners.
Jonathan Arnold:
A quick one on undergrounding, could you maybe give us an update on efforts to secure sort of federal and/or other funding out by your customers? Just -- and then just how you think about that as part of the plan? Is it a way to get more safety for the same bill impact or accelerate? Just how we should think about that as you contemplate that?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, Jonathan, great to hear your voice. We are -- we think that it's quite reasonable to expect that we'll be able to attract the capital to fund the undergrounding efforts. This filing that we made, the update to the GRC cannot be understated what we -- the message we were able to send in numbers, in dollars and cents. In fact, we can invest in undergrounding with our new capability that we're building to reduce cost here at the company. So there's a real opportunity for us to continue to demonstrate that external funding sources are not required to deliver this. Now that's not to say that we would object if somebody wanted to help contribute things related to other parts of the wildfire expenses, for example, if there was external funding for vegetation management or some of the expense-related issues associated with our wildfire plans, I think that would be something that we were very interested in talking to people about. But we think the undergrounding investment is the right investment for customers and we can offset the cost through the expense reductions. The other thing I'll point to is something Chris talked about in his prepared remarks, this ratio of capital to expense and what opportunity there is here at PG&E to get that ratio more in line with benchmarks. When we're at a capital to O&M ratio of 0.9, that means that we don't have the ratio right compared to benchmarks at 1.4 million. So we really think that undergrounding is a good example of how you can shift from the expense laden spending that we've been doing shift to a more permanent fix that is good for customers, a safer solution, a longer-term permanent solution investing that capital. We think you -- the investment community and others will appreciate the value of that, and that's an important message for us to continue to send here in California and demonstrate the value of that getting that ratio right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. And could I also ask on just thoughts around the timing for getting into parent debt reduction. I think you have a commitment that runs out through the end of '23, but should we think of that as being something that get going once securitization starts to get going? Or is it kind of more out towards the end of the window?
Christopher Foster:
Jonathan, it's Chris. I think ultimately, we're definitely focused on the $2 billion reduction by the end of 2023. Haven't been too specific beyond that, but I would just generically consider the rate neutral component, an important milestone as we go. And again, as I mentioned, we're actually really in parallel today in the market on that rate neutral securitization as well.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Perfect. And did I see a number of $3 billion that you're out with now or?
Christopher Foster:
Yes. I would think about in terms of that filing, I think about that as a floor, Jonathan. Ultimately, what we're trying to do there and what I mentioned on the call, the prepared remarks is that we're substantially oversubscribed. Really what we're trying to do, as you can imagine, is find that balance between the fact that we've got the flexibility to do these 3 series and also make sure that we keep in mind knowing the market backdrop that is volatile, to get a good amount in in this first series but also balance customer affordability, which is just going to be key.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julian Dumoulin of Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin:
Just following up here on the cost of capital, I saw the prepared remarks but -- just curious if you can talk a little bit more on the accretion side as one of your peers has talked about asking for an increase there. Just did you guys talk about risks, whether that's the CCA or on wildfire concerns, et cetera. Why not touch both variables here, not just the ROE component but also the equity ratio here?
Christopher Foster:
Sure, Julien. And as you can imagine, we've got both the 2022 cost of capital adjustment mechanism being contemplated but also 2023. You're specific, I think, pointing to the 2023 filing, we did maintain the consistent capital structure there. And ultimately, what you saw in terms of our 11% ROE request, it was directly reflective of what we had filed even last year as we contemplated the update to the 2022 case. So what we're expressing there is consistency across cases of what we're seeing in terms of ongoing risk to the enterprise, necessitating both 11% ROE, but also maintaining the cap structure itself. As you probably also thought a moderate increase to long-term debt to 4.27%, which we think is reasonable as well.
Julien Dumoulin:
Got it. All right. And then just -- can we talk a little bit about the upcoming wildfire season and the risk profile there. Obviously, we've seen some comments about water availability in the state of late. But can you given the mix of your system improvements that you already identified in the prepared remarks and these projections for Water, can you talk about sort of the net and how you guys would frame your assessment for the summer?
Patricia Poppe:
Julien, it's such an important question and something that I really am thankful for our team and particularly a shout-out to all our engineers here at PG&E for the incredible work they've done I can't overstate the progress that has been made through the implementation of these engineered enhanced power line safety settings. As we filed in our updated GRC and our wildfire mitigation plan, we've shown a dramatic risk reduction, a quantifiable risk reduction over 90% and that is a huge progress in 1 year. And so let me just hit a couple of high points about why that's true. One, these engineered settings, as we shared last year in the areas where we implemented them, we had an 80% reduction in ignitions. While this season, I'm so excited to report that we have already deployed and enable those enhanced power line safety settings in our entire high-fire threat area. We'll be done by early next week. We did a review this week in our Wildfire command center and the engineers, we're very excited to share the progress they've made. But we're not stopping there. We're doing it in adjacent areas as well. And so we committed in our wildfire mitigation plan to have those adjacent areas done by August, but I'm happy to report, we're going to have that done in a matter of weeks, not months. And that is a very important safety backstop for our customers and being able to de-energize those lines with the contact of an animal, a tree, anything less than 1/10 of a second puts us on a new plane of safety and I just can't overstate the benefit of that to the system. So for example, this year, we're utilizing all of these millions of simulations and data extracts that we have every day to determine, does the circuit need to be turned on today. We're thinking of this that there's no longer that we have to prepare for a wildfire season. We're going to be prepared every day, Julian. This team is going to be ready to go and we have information and data at already that allows us to make those decisions. So for example, this year, we've already initiated EPSS on certain circuits under certain conditions, and we've had 27 outages on an EPSS-enabled circuit. In other words, we had enabled EPSS and something did, in fact, make contact with the line and it did, in fact, be energized, and we had 0 ignitions in all of those EPSS-enabled circuits. That is a safe risk-reduced system that is in play today. I couldn't be more proud of my engineers for the incredible work they've been doing night and day to make sure that our customers are safe, no matter the conditions.
Christopher Foster:
And then, Julian, if I could just build on that, I think Patty hit it really well. And what we're focusing on today, as you've heard, is both physical risk reduction of the system as well as financial risk. And the other key thing to think about there is that we've also now just last month completed the update to our wildfire-related insurance. So for the period of, again -- basically, think about it as April this year to April of next year, we've got $940 million of Wilba-related insurance, too. So good protection there on really both sides. So risk reduction and financial risk reduction.
Patricia Poppe:
That's our Belton suspender solution.
Operator:
Your next question is from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Patty, Chris, have a system reliability and renewable question for you, which is you're very active as are your California peers in buying incremental solar and storage to meet summer peak demands. But there's a lot of solar and storage projects around the country that are facing delays, whether it's supply chain, whether it's part of the circumvention related case. How are you thinking about it -- first of all, are some of the projects or many of the projects you've contracted for already off schedule that you're aware of? That's question one. Question 2 is if you have projects where you're the buyer of the power and it looks like they're going to be delayed. How do you backfill that for reliability purposes?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes. Great questions, Michael. Nice to hear your voice. We -- first of all, we're very comfortable about our supply situation for this summer for 2022 even if no additional storage comes online. And so we are already planned prepared. Our Moss Landing facility came online. That's 182 megawatts of storage that we're very excited about utility-owned storage. We are prepared for this summer. But all that being said, you're right, there are supply chain deficiencies. And thankfully, we plan conservatively and are prepared -- we're prepared for that. But I don't think those supply chain issues are permanent. There's such market demand, the market will figure this out. Again, we're prepared for this summer. But as the coming years evolves, we know that storage is a critical complement to the renewable and clean energy ambitions of California, which is what made us so excited about our announcement with General Motors and Ford and our continued relationship with BMW on bidirectional charging vehicles. We have 6,600 megawatts of capacity driving on the roads of PG&E service area today in the form of electric vehicles. Not a single kilowatt of those cars are powering back to the grid. That's a huge opportunity for us. In fact, that's 3 large power plants of capacity, driving around the roads of California, specifically our service area. That, we think, is a really long-term ambition that we can optimize supply and demand and have a much smarter energy system, and our team is fortunate to be here in the Bay Area with the incredible commitment to clean energy, we can actually get back into a leadership position, leading the world in this clean energy transformation. And it's not going to be, I would say, the system of old, big bulk power delivering on large transmission. I think we're going to have a lot more distributed resources that we're going to be able to enable and optimize demand. So we're pretty excited about what the future holds for us here.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. And then a follow up in a little bit of a regulatory question. Now that all 3 of the utilities in the state have filed their cost of capital proceedings for 2023. Do you think there's a potential scenario where you and the various intervenors could potentially come to a settlement between now and the year-end? Or do you think this has to go the fully litigated process?
Christopher Foster:
Michael, it's Chris. Good question. I think it's a little premature to know exactly how it would how it would play out. Ultimately, we've had a good track record in the state. I just have to say in terms of the timing. I think the commission recognizes the importance of the case is just for certainty purposes. And so certainly on cost of capital adjustment mechanism piece that one is a little bit less clear in terms of the calendar. But in terms of the 2023 to 2025 consideration, we have asked for a December 2022 decision. And I do think the commission has got a good track record of kind of generally keeping it around that time frame or early the subsequent year, just so that we know what we're heading into. But tough for me to speculate, as you can imagine, specifically on settlement posture just where we are right now because we've really just filed, what, last week.
Operator:
Your next question is from Nicos Campana of Credit Suisse.
Unidentified Analyst:
So I guess a lot of things have been answered, but as it relates to just maybe the agencies, I'm sure you kind of met with them like everyone else this past quarter. Can you just kind of maybe update on some of the discussions you're having with them? What are they looking for in terms of just getting you back to IG if you kind of have any outlook in the plan here at this point? I know that there's going to be some material holdco debt paydown in '23, but maybe you can just talk to that a little?
Christopher Foster:
Sure. Happy to Nick. I think there's really 3 factors that they're looking at closely when we talk often. I think the first is certainly its highest order. Just how are we doing toward operational-oriented risk reduction and progress there? And I really mean that broadly across the enterprise, not necessarily just around wildfire risk. I think the second piece really relates to the level of alignment with both the state and our customers. How are we making -- how are we looking in terms of progress on key regulatory cases, outcomes there? As well as ensuring that, frankly, some of the volume lessons around impacts that we're having to customers. And that's why we've got a tighter plan this year as it relates to our EPSS program. And then finally, it's hitting our core financials. I think ultimately, there are focus on the balance that you mean, and we've talked about consistently in terms of heading back to the FFO to debt guide that we've given of mid- to high teens in 2024 as well as starting down this path, right? I mean this is what's so key about our rate neutral securitization. Again, that we're expecting to close this in May, we're in the middle of pricing here over the next few days. And that really starts that path, right? We're able to take out $6 billion of temporary operating company debt and really get back to here our regulated capital structure, so when you pull them together, it really is that combination. They want to see progress on the operational plan. We're going to be showing you and then that every quarter. Two, regulatory outcomes. We've got some key components up here in front of us, right, of our wildfire mitigation plan approval that's up here in front of us. How does the enhanced oversight process turned out and the progress we're making there in our vegetation management program. And then finally, like I said, hitting our core financial program, and we're definitely on track there as well.
Operator:
Your next question is from Greg Orrill of UBS.
Gregg Orrill:
Just in terms of proving out the liability improvements for maybe 1054, can you talk about how you're thinking about the $2 billion of wildfire mitigation spend that you have pending and maybe also the regulatory asset around Dixi that you have? And if those are milestones or if there are other ones you're thinking about?
Christopher Foster:
Sure, Greg. Let me try to take both of those. They're definitely related in one way. I think one, if I'm hearing you right, it's specific to how we've been able to continue recoveries on prior wildfire investments. I do think you saw our disclosures today and the update is we continue to work our way, that $4 billion-plus down really quarter-over-quarter indicated this time that we've actually seen $1.25 billion come through in rates. So there's key progress already underway there. With regard to the Dixie related progress itself, again, the headline there is no explicit change to the charge itself. What I would offer is in terms of thinking about when AB 1054-related considerations would come about. We have put forward a fast claims process as part of the settlement that we recently announced which would allow for a resolution of claims that come forward within 75 days. The only reason I'm offering that as an example is you could see us in one scenario start to accelerate some claims. Keep in mind that we do have over $560 million of insurance to apply against that. But I'm just offering that to you, Greg, is a little bit of color for -- there could be a scenario here where we're able to accelerate some of these considerations to call the eventual question of recoveries in terms of FERC, the CPUC and eventually the wildfire fund itself.
Operator:
Next question is from Ryan Levine of Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Congrats on the S&P inclusion qualification, with income. I guess 1 follow-up on that. Are there any near-term onetime items related to the legal cost securitization or trust sales that could impact the GAAP requirement in the upcoming quarters. There was, I guess, footnote 6 in your release had some data that suggested maybe?
Christopher Foster:
Sure, Ryan. I think in terms of looking forward, I think the example that would be there in terms of what we've consistently described as legacy legal claims would be explicit to the securities related items that rode through the Chapter 11 process. We did indicate that we are in discussions there. And so I think that is an item that we're currently evaluating.. What I want to emphasize there, though, Ryan, is that we've certainly come forward with our best information today in terms of where those discussions lie and those have not impacted our equity guide of $100 million to $400 million. So I just wanted to offer to you that we've got that level of insight there and this does not impact the financing guide that we've given for 2022. Hopefully, that helps in terms of a way to think about it need to be specific on the negotiation.
Ryan Levine:
With the rate neutral securitization or Fire Victims Trust sale, given the Grane Trust decision from last year impact the GAAP income profile in the coming quarter?
Christopher Foster:
I mean it'd be tough to -- again, that would depend on whether the trust itself is selling. What we did disclose today is that there is a tax benefit that comes through this noncore. Thus far on the trust sales, I think we disclosed it at $135 million in terms of the 100 million shares that have been disposed so far.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then in terms of the Analyst Day in June, is there any color you could provide around what you're intending to communicate at that event?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, you bet, Ryan. You're not going to want to miss it. We have the opportunity to showcase this all-star team I know you had a chance to meet him when he came out in August last year, is an extraordinary team leading PCG, and we want to make sure that everyone gets a chance to hear from them on things like our business process improvement, the wildfire technology that's underpinning our risk reduction here, our undergrounding plan, and certainly our simple and affordable model in more detail and any then regulatory implications and benefits as a result of that deployment of our simple and affordable model. So really going deep on this physical and financial risk mitigation that we really want people to understand firsthand from our top leadership team here at the company.
Operator:
We have completed the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call over to Patti Poppe for closing remarks.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Cheryl, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. It's always a great opportunity for us to share with you the progress that we're making in the transformation of PG&E. The physical and financial risks continue to be reduced in meaningful ways, and we look forward to again sharing more with you about that at our June 10 Investor Day. Again, I'll be joined by this All-Star team, and I know you'll enjoy hearing from them directly about how all the things Chris and I have talked about today are coming to life. The culture and capabilities that we are building at PG&E create a sustainable, winning business model for this company, and we couldn't be more excited to be able to share that with you in June. We'll see you in New York.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. And please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today Mr. Matt Fallon, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.
Matt Fallon:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in PG&Es fourth quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Patti Poppe, our Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's fourth quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. The presentation can be found online along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-Kfor the quarter ended December 31, 2021. With that I'll hand it over to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Thanks so much for joining us today. Our performance in 2021 confirms my confidence in our future. One, we've got the right team in place who implemented our lean operating system first, in wildfire and then across the company. Two, we've established our regional service model to deliver for our hometowns. Three, we met our major commitments in the 2021 wildfire mitigation plan by the end of the year, and implemented programs resulting in a significant reduction in wildfire risk. Four our federal probation period has ended. We're a safer company because of the improvements we've made in the past five years. We look forward to continuing to work closely with policymakers, agencies, and regulators to rebuild trust, through relentless focus on execution. We welcome the transparency and accountability that our customers should expect. And five on our financials, we delivered right on our EPS target $1 share the midpoint of our commitment for non-GAAP core earnings on a fully diluted basis. This is $1.08 on our basic share count consistent with reporting a GAAP loss. We met our commitment to you, our investors, not more not less, putting every penny to work for our customers. As you'd expect from us, we'll continue to manage the business efficiently to benefit our customers and provide predictable financial results to you, our investors every year. For 2022, our non-GAAP core EPS guidance is $1.07 to $1.13 up 7% to 13%. With a midpoint growth at 10%. Longer-term, we're focused on delivering a total return of EPS growth plus dividend yield of at least 10% per year, every year. This premium total return is driven by a simple, but affordable model that you can see on Slide 4. We're making substantial necessary investments for our customers to improve the safety, resiliency and reliability of our service, including our aggressive undergrounding plan. To mitigate the customer impact of our higher investment growth. We're planning to reduce our non-fuel O&M expense by at least 2% every year. And we're fortunate to have sales growth that accelerates over the years ahead from electric vehicles, building electrification and more. And of course, we're making smart business decisions focused on optimizing our generation sources, efficient financing, and minimizing the use of diluted equity. Longer-term, we expect the impact to our customers will be at or below inflation. Everything we've accomplished in 2021 reflects our focus on the triple bottom-line, serving people, the planet and California's prosperity underpinned by our relentless pursuit of improving our performance. We'll continue to lead by that triple bottom-line driving our performance in 2022 and beyond. Speaking of performance, to provide transparency and accountability, we'll be providing you with a report card each quarter. This is something you've been asking for and it is shown here on Slide 5. We'll provide you with specific metrics related to our wildfire efforts, our customers, and our financials. Specifically, we'll show the number of reportable ignitions. Our progress on undergrounding, gas distribution main replacements, our non-fuel O&M cost reduction, and several financial metrics. You'll see our progress across the business as we report out each quarter. Our Clear Sky playbook works. And in 2021, we experienced how powerful it can be here at PG&E. One bread and butter example is an inline inspection job that I visited a couple of weeks ago. Using our daily operating reviews and visual management tools, the project team installed 14 miles of inline inspection capability at the ribbon cutting two local mayors and city council members shared with me how satisfied they were with the work and how we showed up for our hometowns. Seamless cross functional execution that is focused on our customers. Thanks to our vast team for making it look easy. And it can be when we have an operating method that delivers consistent and predictable outcomes. Our lean playbook also drove the execution of our wildfire mitigation plan, producing great results. Last summer, we reengineered our distribution lines to shut off power within one tenth of a second when an object strip strikes the line or a fault occurs. We refer to this as enhanced powerline safety settings or EPSS. In 2021 EPSS was enabled on 45% of the lines in our high fire threat service area based on fuel risk and accessibility. To be clear, EPSS is different from our public safety power shutoff program, which is based on proactively turning off lines in dangerous fire weather conditions, primarily high winds combined with low fuel moisture levels. We're planning on expanding our EPSS program in 2022 to up to 100% of our high fire threat distribution miles. As a reminder, these settings are in place to address the risk of an ignition on a non-red Flag Warning day that also has dry conditions. The expansion of the program in 2022 provides a greater level of risk reduction. And we're also implementing enhancements to reduce the impact of EPSS on customers. As you can see on Slide 6, once we implemented our enhanced powerline safety settings, we saw an 80% reduction and ignitions on enabled circuits, which translates to a 40% reduction in ignitions, across all high fire threat districts. And as I said in 2022, we're planning to adjust the program. So all of our high fire threat distribution miles are capable of enhanced powerline safety settings. We've learned a lot from our experience last summer, and we'll use that education to guide how we engineer these settings in 2022. In addition to expanding our EPSS program in 2022, we continue to focus on our most impacted customers in our public safety power shut off or PSPS program. As a reminder, our modeling shows that the protocols we had in place for the 2021 wildfire season would have reduced the number of impacted structures from 2012 to 2020 by 96%. And due to increase sectionalization and more localized weather forecasting, our 2021 protocols reduced customer impact from PSPS by 78% this year. While we've developed an effectively scoped PSPS program, we expect this program to be less visible over time due to our focus on our enhanced vegetation management, our inspections, our repairs, our undergrounding and our micro grid work. On that last point, PG&E brought our first remote micro grid online in 2021. This solution means that an overhead line is removed in a high fire threat area keeping our customers safe. We're pursuing additional microgrid opportunities as part of our comprehensive wildfire mitigation plan in 2022. When removing a line is infeasible, there are even more exciting tools in our toolkit. What we're exploring is the full potential of distributed energy resources and bi-directional charging electric vehicles that will offer resilience options for our customers. We can eliminate the trade-off between being safe and having power. That's the future. And we're making it happen here in California. For the longer-term, we're expanding our system hardening program. Today we're providing the first look at the next five years of our undergrounding plan. Here on Slide 8. It's big and it's bold. We're moving on our commitment to underground 10,000 miles of power lines in our high fire risk areas. Undergrounding is a strong long-term solution for PG&E to reduce wildfire risk in certain parts of our service area. As well outlined in our 2022 wildfire mitigation plan, our goal is to substantially increase our underground miles each year, ramping up from 175 miles in 2022 to 1,200 miles in 2026. Of the nearly 600 miles we plan to complete by the end of 2023. Our 50% over 50% are already scoped construction ready or under construction. We'll file an update to our 2023 general rate case along with our 2022 wildfire mitigation plan on February 25 to reflect this game changing investment. And here's the good news. Undergrounding is a great example of our simple and affordable model in action. We invest in really high value capital infrastructure, and reduce our spend on temporary repairs and annual recurring expenses. Our update later this month will reflect a minimal impact to customers relative to our previous filings. As you can see on Slide 9, our capital plan is larger from 2022 to 2026 than in previous five years. The need for significant investment across the system results from many factors, including continued safety investments in our gas system, property, and building consolidations, technology adoptions to make our work more efficient, ongoing grid hardening and expansions and of course, our undergrounding plan. And as I covered earlier, we will protect our customers from energy bills they cannot afford with a cost discipline that many of you would expect. Before I hand it over to Chris, I'd like to close by reinforcing that we've met our commitments in 2021. We've laid the foundation to continue meeting our commitments in 2022. We've significantly reduced wildfire risk and are making investments that serve our triple bottom-line of people, planet and California's prosperity. Now I'll hand it over to Chris to cover financials and regulatory items.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti and good morning everyone. As Pattimentioned earlier, this is about operating results and financial results. We're hitting our stride on our financial outcomes creating a solid path to becoming a premium utility. This means meeting our financial targets, delivering consistent regulatory outcomes and keeping an eye on the horizon. For us, that includes an improved emphasis on customer affordability, balance sheet health, and enabling clean energy solutions for California. Today, I'll cover three topics. First, our 2021 results, which were right on target and our 2022 guidance. Second, areas of regulatory and legislative progress and third key elements of our strengthened five-year plan, which balances a range of necessary investment opportunities in our hometown, with a focus on affordability. Let me now start with our 2021 highlights, then move into greater detail. We met our non-GAAP core EPS guidance, landing at $1 for the year using our fully diluted share count assumed in our guidance or $1.08 using our basic share count, consistent with our GAAP loss. We finished the year without issuing equity. We executed our first of three AB 1054 securitization transaction. We reached settlement agreements in our 2018 SEMA and 2020 Whimsy cases, and we received a positive final outcome in our firstWEMA application. Slide 10 shows our results for both the fourth quarter and the year. Let's start with the share count used for Q4 2021 and full-year GAAP and non-GAAP core earnings per share. As you can see, we're in a small GAAP loss position for 2021 either our grantor trust election utilized for efficient tax planning. As a result of a GAAP loss, we're required to use basic shares outstanding to calculate both GAAP EPS and non-GAAP core EPS for the full-year. Our full-year guidance assumes non-GAAP core EPS of $0.95 to $1.05 per share using our fully diluted share count. So on a fully diluted basis, we landed right on our target of $1. Our GAAP positive for the quarter, so our Q4 GAAP and non-GAAP core EPS calculation reflects our fully diluted share count. Non-GAAP core earnings for the year came in at $2.1 billion. The non-core items listed here consistent with the full-year 2021 guidance range. Moving to Slide 11, this shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for non-GAAP core earnings of $596 million or $0.28 in the fourth quarter. We're pleased with the $0.11 of improvement here and in particular, the $0.02 represented by operating cost enhancements in the fourth quarter. These savings are reflective of our enhanced focus on implementing better long-term solutions, allowing us to reduce costs and resulting in a more sustainable and affordable plan for our customers. Now see a few updates on regulatory matters. On the debt side, we completed our initial AB1054 securitization transaction during Q4 2021 for $860 million. You can expect a similar transaction later this year once we work through the next regulatory proceeding. Over the next couple of years, we expect to issue total securitization under the AB1054 legislation up to $3.2 billion, and the cap that was previously established. With the timing of issuances tied to the timing of the qualified spend, we view this as an important component of the capital plan to reduce cost for customers while we invest in wildfire risk mitigation work. Our separate rate neutral securitization has also been approved by the CPUC. As a reminder, the use of proceeds from this transaction will allow us to retire $6 billion of temporary debt at the utility that has funded those payments in the interim. We are still working through the legal challenge that has been filed, we are focused on issuing the securitization quickly once it is resolved, and are hopeful to start issuing the first series as early as the second quarter of 2022. Additionally, during 2021, we continue to make progress on settling our outstanding cost recovery requests for wildfire related investments. As previously highlighted, we saw the settlement agreement for 2020 Whimsy case and we received a final decision on our first WEMA application during 2021. Additionally, on November 4, we filed the settlement with the CPUC for 90% of our requests in the 2018 CEMA case. As you can see here on Slide 12, we expect to start seeing cash flows from the settled rate cases starting this year. I also want to touch briefly on the next steps in our cost of capital proceeding. On December 24, the CPUC issued a scoping memo and the 2022 cost of capital case which narrowed the scope to review for just this year. Specifically, the CPUC will consider whether there are extraordinary events that warrant a departure from the cost of capital mechanism and whether to leave the cost of capital components at pre-2022 levels for the year 2022. Additionally, the scoping memo clarifies that this proceeding does not replace a requirement to file a full application for test year 2023, which will do in April. The CPUC has not set a date for final decision and as we indicated in our application, we believe a reasonable outcome is to continue the currently authorized cost of capital because the COVID-19 pandemic and related government response warrants a departure from the cost of capital mechanism for 2022. Patti touched on our 2023 General Rate case and the updated testimony we will be filing later this month in conjunction with our 2022 wildfire mitigation plan. As a reminder, this is our first GRC in a first on a four-year cycle, and our first GRC to incorporate costs for a gas transmission and storage facilities, the scoping memo call for hearing this name and a final decision in the second quarter of 2023. Let's move to Slide 13 and look ahead to this year and the next five years, where we'll continue to focus on the triple bottom line. Guidance for 2022 represents consistency, including our focus on limiting equity needs while continuing to make progress to resolve legacy issues. For 2022, we are providing a range for non-GAAP core EPS guidance of $1.07 to $1.13 maintaining our 10% earnings per share growth. For 2022, we estimate our equity issuance needs in the range of $100 million to $400 million. As Patti touched on, we have substantially updated our five-year plan. Let's go ahead and move to Slide 14 where we provide our refreshed 2022 to 2026 projections. There's much to share in this improved plan, including earnings per share growth will continue on the 10% path in the near-term and we'll transition into an EPS growth plus dividend yield of at least 10% as we grow into our dividend upon reinstatement. Our rate base CAGR goes from 8.5% to 9%. This growth includes our current estimates over this period including the kicking off of our undergrounding program. This plan is consistent with what will be reflected in our upcoming February 25 filings, it also includes investments in remote grids, and system modernization to expand our preparedness for electrification. We also retain our commitment to reducing debt at the holding company in the coming years, with targeted reductions of $2 billion by the end of 2023. The continued suspension of the common stock dividend will support these debt reductions. The overall financing plan has been developed with our long-term FFO to debt targets in mind as we look to achieve mid to high teens levels in 2024. As Patti mentioned, our capital investment program is focused sharply on critical customer needs. We can finance this and make it affordable for our customers. And we intend to manage this over time to maintain customer impacts around the level of inflation in California. Starting this year, we plan to reduce non-fuel O&M costs by 2% every year. Our O&M costs used to increase every year. And over time we anticipate low growth due to electrification to help spread our costs over a larger base. And we'll make good business decisions to more efficiently provide generation and more efficiently finance the enterprise. This enhanced approach for us at PG&E helps us deliver for our hometowns and for our investors. We'll execute against this five year plan using our lean operating system, where we can better seek out waste elimination, and make the work easier for our co-workers. There's a lot of work to do and it can be done more simply. We've already seen success in 2021. Recall that we targeted savings of roughly $1 billion each year. The outcome for 2021 had us at roughly $1.6 billion in savings. We achieved savings well above that prior target of $1 billion reflecting good business decisions with improved unit cost performance and transactional savings. The operational savings achieved this year include around $560 million from the efficiencies gained by renegotiating electric construction contracts with third-parties, among other efforts, and we're just getting started. As a team, we are determined to execute well on both the operational and financial plan, we set out to benefit all components of the triple bottom line, and drive prosperity for our state, and investors. I'll close by reiterating that we've delivered against the financial plan for 2021. Our focus has been and will continue to be on addressing the critical need to reduce wildfire risk in the near-term, while running the business effectively for the long-term. Our stronger five year plan puts us on that path. We're investing in needed wildfire mitigation, improving our balance sheet, and making the right investments to deliver clean energy safely to our customers. With that, I'll go and hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Chris. And as we've discussed, a lot has happened here at PG&E in 2021 to create the launching pad for 2022. As most of you know, I like to tell stories. So here we go. I have one more. A couple weeks ago, on one of my field visits, I stopped at our service center in Auburn. I heard a familiar story from one of our co-workers who lives in Placer County with the PG&E distribution line on his property. Due to various work processes that should have been coordinated, he has had Inspectors on his property four times, three crews on his property three times, and wood management crews another three times, that is 10 visits in a little over a year. Now right after I grown in frustration, I clap and I say okay, team that's upside, let's go on this job, we could have reduced our costs by 20% simply by having a better work plan. Similar jobs in 2021 cost PG&E a billion dollars. Just think of how much better we can do and how our customers will benefit as we reduce the waste and therefore the cost in our processes. I feel that momentum and potential every day. That's just one opportunity of many that I've encountered in my time here at PG&E. Opportunities to reduce costs, opportunities to improve our customer relationships, opportunities to deliver as the hometown team. We're excited about what we've accomplished in 2021 and where we're going in 2022 and beyond, we're further mitigating wildfire risk by expanding our enhanced powerline safety setting program and launching our undergrounding initiative. We've got the right operating system in place to deliver industry leading financial growth fueled by the important safety and resiliency driven infrastructure investments funded by our cost savings, our growing load, and good management practices to keep customer bills affordable. This is a new era at PG&E without trade-offs. We can serve customers, and you, our investors without a compromise. Thank you all for your time. And thank you for supporting the great work being done here at PG&E. Operator, please open the line for questions-and-answers.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. We had the first question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So just on the -- a couple questions on the undergrounding plan with how should we think about -- how much you might actually be doing the work before you have full the pre-approval for it? And just how you're thinking about that?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, Hi, Steve. Nice to hear your voice. Well, we have already approved filings for our hardening work. And so we're biasing the plans now to include more undergrounding we have 211 or we have 14 miles done to-date already this year, which we're excited about. We continue to make progress. We have -- so as we look forward to future filings, we'll continue to and you'll see in our wildfire mitigation plan, which we file, February 25, what our plan is for the future of undergrounding year-by-year as we've described in the deck today, but that will then be approved in the coming years. We've actually been asked to update the GRC to reflect the inclusion of undergrounding. And I think the part that's most exciting for people is that we can make those additional undergrounding miles when we factored into our total capital plan with minimal impact on our original filing in terms of costs for customers. And so we can both make it safe and keep it affordable. And we're excited about that progress.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. And just could you maybe give a little more color on when you look at the five year plan on undergrounding. Years three to five starts becoming pretty big, pretty big numbers and capital. Just how you're thinking about funding it? And are you looking at kind of something other than straight balance sheet financing?
Chris Foster:
Sure, hi, Steve. It's a couple things we're looking at there. As you can imagine the equity driver itself is going to ultimately depend on where we end up on that CapEx. But it's just stepping back, you can imagine we do have a couple of levers as we look forward. First is going to be the amount of holding company debt that we retain is one lever that gives us some good flexibility in those outer years. I think the second would be just the assumption for how quickly we choose to ramp up the dividend. So we're giving ourselves I think, some good levers there in the out years to kind of try to manage any potential, any financing pressures.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then one other just technical question, the $5 million GAAP loss for '21. Does that mean you're not eligible for S&P 500 inclusion until we get passed the next quarter?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Steve happy to clarify that. When we did have a GAAP loss in Q3, right, that we had pointed to was going to occur? We have a positive Q4, right. So that would mean that the most recent quarter is GAAP positive, as it's looked at by S&P. So really, the two metrics that we've got to meet at this stage are the most recent quarter being GAAP positive. And the sum of the four most recent quarters GAAP positive in terms of the ability to have S&P inclusion. And then it's really just the qualitative factors, it's harder to put a timeline on, as you could imagine, which is another entity has to fall out of the S&P for us to have eligibility to go in.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. But just to clarify that second piece that because this is the last four quarters this year that you don't meet that second metrics are going to wait for at least maybe the next quarter to meet that?
Chris Foster:
That's a fair assumption. Yes, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold of Vertical Research. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning guys.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
This one I think from the footnote to the slide that says you're effectively assuming current cost of capital and equity ratio across the business in your '22 guidance. So I wanted to verify that that's correct. And secondly, just to sort of how you thinking about potentially different outcomes there and how that would sort of fall within the range that you've given us? Would you be able to expect to be able to offset that. Would you expect to be able to be still delivering at 10% through pulling other levers and maybe that?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, great question, Jonathan. As you might expect, Jonathan, there's lots of puts and takes in any given year, and this is one. And we would expect to find another way to achieve our financial commitments. And so are -- we're planning conservatively putting into -- putting together plans in the event that the cost of capital proceeding does not go the way that we think it should. We're very optimistic about our filing and things that we've made a compelling argument. But of course, we'll plan accordingly. As I like to say Jonathan we'll ride the roller coaster, so you don't have to.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you for that. And then just one other thing, you -- that's 2% to 4% sort of longer-term customer rate. I guess those customer bill impact. I think you've described that as longer term is, could we talk a little about the near-term, and how that sort of calibrate against that broader target?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, as you can imagine, we've got a lot of plans in place that we're working to reduce our O&M and reduce our cost structure. We do have our current rate filing as already in flight for the next four years, as we look at what the rate implications of that filing. It's on average, about 4% per year. It tapers down in the latter half of the plan, and we expect to continue to be able to build this muscle to keep our rates affordable. We do think that our rates are affordable, we believe that our -- the value offer to customers is significant. And so it's truly on us to continue to make the business more efficient, find ways of reducing costs, and one of the things I'm excited about here in California is actual load growth. That's a nice phenomenon. And we see what electric vehicles, electrification, as well as customer growth. We've got a lot of opportunities here to continue to grow in California, that's another offset to unit costs for customers going forward. So this is an important muscle for us to develop here at PG&E. And as I mentioned in my opening remarks, I see lots of opportunity everywhere I go across the system for ways that we can improve the customer experience and reduce the cost to deliver.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great, okay, thank you. And then maybe one quick follow-up. Something you said, Chris, to Steve. You talked about how quickly you ramp up the dividends being a lever you can pull for financing, incremental capital. Would you -- I that would appear to imply you still anticipate starting it, in that kind of mid next year timeframe, assuming that earnings play out the way they versus the cumulative target I guess?
Chris Foster:
That's accurate, Jonathan. We'd still be looking at a situation where we'll hit that $6.2 billion and non-GAAP core earnings threshold that allow us to turn it back on. I just think at this stage, you can imagine I can't really get ahead of the decision will be making with the board on the exact level of reinstatement. But we would certainly be eligible again, roughly mid next year, and looking forward to being able to turn it back on. But as you can imagine, just given the plants in front of us we will be -- it's safe to assume right, we'd be growing into that dividend.
Jonathan Arnold:
For sure. Okay. Thank you.
Chris Foster:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners. Your line is now open. You may ask the question.
Constantine Lednev:
Good morning team. This is actually Constantine here for Shar. Congrats on all the accomplishments in '21.
Patricia Poppe:
Good morning. Thank you.
Constantine Lednev:
As we're thinking about the undergrounding that that you're presenting today. And can you elaborate on the inputs from any kind of bids or RFIs that drove the formation of the 3,600 target? And the kind of cost levels that you're presenting? How does that fit within the 10,000 mile goal previously stated? And you see some opportunities to improve or accelerate without crowding any investment?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, great question. We have a couple things. We have current active undergrounding projects as we speak, and they range in their cost to complete. And we have some that are today in the $2 million a mile range. We have some that are more than that. And so we're working to find the best methods and systems. We don't have a unit cost negotiated yet with a contractor for the full scope of the 10,000 miles. We're working on identifying what is that path forward. But one of the things that's exciting about the RFI that we did conduct a request for information. We got a lot of new technologies that are being deployed across the globe, presented to us here. For example, some boring equipment that's being used in Germany to underground transmission lines. It's pretty exciting stuff which gives us confidence as we ramp up and scale this program with the right equipment, with the right partners, with the right work process. We can dramatically reduce our costs every year on the undergrounding scope and scale. So we have a lot more meat to put on the bones as we move forward. But again, we'll share more specifics on our cost forecasts and the near-term plans with our wildfire mitigation plan, we're filing on the 25th of February.
Chris Foster:
And if I could just build on that Constantine. We really don't see this as crowding out the work right. Well, the beauty of this is that, as Patty mentioned earlier, we've already got that ability in the underlying generate case, and in our subsequent rate case to put forward system hardening investments. So we're going to pull out some of what would previously have been the overhead line miles we would have been putting in and are putting in better risk reduction with the undergrounding mileage or putting it instead. So the risk of inefficiency is better, the safety for our customers is improved. And ultimately, what you'll see is we're also going to have a true up that goes in alongside that wildfire mitigation plan filing on February 25th. That trip will show you that in the end, this is really where the rubber meets the road that will -- you'll be able to put forward a plan, there's minimal impact to customers, while still going after this aggressive undergrounding effort on behalf of our customers in the state.
Constantine Lednev:
That's excellent color. I appreciate that very much. And as you noted in the multi-year financial plan. Can you elaborate on the drivers for the 10% ETFs and dividend yield? And how does that incorporate the new 9% rate base growth and financing needs versus prior guidance? And are there any assumptions in there around reinstating the dividend?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing. We do definitely have a high level assumption that within the details of the five year plan. Certainly can't drive a specificity today. If we have just made that assumption, don't want to again want to get ahead of that decision by management and the board. But what I would offer is, again, you can see this year that we certainly we're already kicking off a substantial doubling or more than doubling of undergrounding mileage in terms of that effort, as well as continuing our key safety and reliability investments. Got a moderate equity need that we disclose today. And our goal again, going forward, Constantine would be to ensure that we're finding that right balance. And that's going to be about making sure that we're pulling forward the work to get the work done efficiently. But doing so in a way that's from a financing standpoint, efficient as we go.
Constantine Lednev:
Excellent. And a very quick follow-up on a related note. In terms of the own end profile and the 2% target. Is that something the cadence to the reductions, especially as you start seeing some benefits around WMP and undergrounding in the tail end versus the front end of the plan?
Patricia Poppe:
Now we're shooting Constantine to do our goal is to shoot for 2% a year. We're going to work that every year. There's a lot of efforts and underway and a lot of opportunities that we see going forward. So we're going to work that every year. Though your intuition is right underground is a perfect example of that simple and affordable model. It's capital intensive, because it's the right kind of long-term infrastructure that the system needs to be resilient in these conditions here in California, and reduces then the need to rely on annual vegetation management and other annual expenses. So we really have the opportunity here to demonstrate our simple and affordable model through undergrounding. So you're spot on that.
Constantine Lednev:
Excellent. And I appreciate you taking the questions today and congrats on a good year.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Constantine. See you soon.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks so much for the time.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Julien. Nice to hear your voice.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Likewise. So just on this 2% non-fuel O&M cost reduction, what's the gross number? What's the starting point that you're starting with offsetting here? Just want to understand how meaningful of a program that you've got underway? I know you, you threw out the billion dollar number of cost savings at least on just work process here at the outset and in the script. But just high level, how much inflation are you otherwise looking at to offset here's a baseline results at a net minus two here?
Chris Foster:
Sure, thank you. It's substantial. Again, previously, but we got it to was taking that roughly billion dollars out of the business a year. Our target last year was a billion we came through at 1.6. We're pivoting now to this non-fuel O&M view, which we'll be all in think about it is roughly a total of $10 billion amount that we'll be working down right over time. So 2% year-over-year, no matter where inflation stands, right. Our focus is going to be taking out that 2% productivity levels to it to improve themselves, as well as you heard us mention some of these large contracting efforts, being ones where we can take out in some cases as we did last year, hundreds of millions of dollars in costs as we go. So that's really going to be the focus of the enterprise. Year-over-year productivity in the field, as well as making sure from a sourcing in and contracting standpoint, we're really doing our best to get the best pricing possible.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And speaking of getting the best pricing possible here. I mean, how much confidence, I think about the confidence intervals in terms of achieving the new undergrounding cost metrics per mile that you've laid out both near-term and long-term. I mean how much confidence can you have in those numbers, just considering the amount of inflation and inflation in some of the input commodities here? And how do you think about potentially putting parameters or hedging around those, especially through near, medium term work here?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, I think our contracting strategy on our undergrounding work is going to obviously be very important. And we'll be working that out in the coming months. We have confidence, Julien, because we're doing it today, we have projects that are coming in at $2 million a mile today. And that's with what I would say, very rudimentary methods, that we haven't deployed the best technology because we don't have the scale to deploy the technology. In fact, I was out on a job. And I was talking to one of our providers of the trenching equipment. And I said to him, hey, is this your best stuff that we're using? He said, Heck, no, I have much better equipment that we could be using. I said, well, why isn't he here? He said, because you don't have scale. You're not running enough miles underground to make it work for me to bring my best equipment and scale up. And I can help reduce the cost and the speed and the time to deliver. So it's pretty interesting. I go back to my old school industrial engineering, Julien and I know that with scale, we can improve the unit cost. So knowing that we can do $2 million a mile on certain jobs today, I know at scale, we can do that with the right equipment, process, partners and work plan.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And so just to clarify, have you run these numbers by the commission staff, et cetera, just in terms of the new cost metrics that you've talked about today? I know that this has been a gradual unveil, if you will.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, we've certainly had conversations with staff about our plans and where we're headed, but our formal filing comes on February 25. And that's when we'll get formal feedback from all the key stakeholders.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right, well, we'll wait for that. Thank you again. Best of luck. See you soon here.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys, thank you for taking my question. I actually had a couple things. One is really a semantic or language question, which is in your text around the EPS CAGR, this is the first time I think where you refer to it as kind of a total return proposition long-term. So EPS plus a yield, I go back and look at the third quarter decks and some of the ones previously, it was just an EPS CAGR. No mention about combo yield. I know that's a really small difference. Can you just walk us through, what drove that language change?
Chris Foster:
No, absolutely, Michael and good to hear from you. This is absolutely one of the key components of the five-year plan. I'd really think about it. And that's one I think there's probably three things we're really focused on today. The first is shifting from that EPS CAGR generically to a total return scenario where as we turn the dividend back on right and we will grow that dividend toward the back half of those years, we're looking instead of just that generic EPS guide as a CAGR, what we're saying is a consistent 10% return at least over that time period. So it's a significant shift. I think the second is our increased focus on costs and cost efficiencies, right. Previously, when we last guided on overall customer bill impact trajectory, we were talking in the neighborhood of roughly 5%. But we're talking about today as Patti mentioned, is closer to 4%. And we're going to keep working that down. And I think the third piece is just the underlying risk reduction is what we're trying to convey today, the body of work is going to mean better risk reduction in the near-term, which is the very large expansion of our EPSS program, which is immediate risk reduction, once we get that ready on the system, and through the long-term risk reduction that comes from undergrounding. So those are really the three key components of the financial planning operating plan.
Michael Lapides:
Right, I just want to come back to the EPS CAGR portion of it, and I hate to harp on this, but if this is now including a 10% total return projection like that's the long-term goal, but it includes a dividend yield, did you and that basically imply relative to what you put out at second quarter and third quarter as kind of a 10% EPS CAGR that that you're basically reducing the EPS CAGR because part of that total return if I'm kind of moving towards 10% is the eventual future of dividend yield?
Chris Foster:
That's essentially correct, Michael, again, we're really shifting ultimately to the total return model. We're going to reinvest in the enterprise where we need to keep costs low, and put ourselves in line with premium peers at a total return level.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, and then one thing just from the customer bill, can you -- commodity prices are up. I know you all have control over a lot of things in the bill, you also don't have, there are a lot of things in the bill, your payables in the K are great on that, that you don't really have as much control of, can you talk about just over the next year or so what the move in commodities has done to the total bill?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, so as we look at particularly natural gas, that's been a big driver, we're proud of the fact that we've been able to minimize the impact to customers on that when some of the commodity prices are up 90%, we've been able to protect our customers closer to a 10% to 12% impact of the commodity. And that's because we've got good storage resources, we have a really aggressive purchasing strategy so that we prevent those big real time spikes from hitting our customers.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Patti. Thank you, Chris. Much appreciate it, guys.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you.
Chris Foster:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Your line is now open. You may ask a question.
Richard Sunderland:
Hi, good morning. It's actually Rich Sunderland on for Jeremy, can you hear me?
Patricia Poppe:
We sure can. Good morning.
Richard Sunderland:
Hi, thanks. Maybe just starting around the 2022 equity, can you speak to your timing expectations they are and what drives the high and low ends of the range?
Chris Foster:
Sure, happy to cover it for you at this point nothing specific on timing, just because again, if you can imagine we're always trying to taking conservative look at this Rich. Last year, as you recall, right, we had guided to zero to 400, pleased that we landed at zero last year. Ultimately, what we're looking at are a couple of drivers. First would be at its highest order. We're going to continue to work through legacy wildfire cases, right. We've got the commitment there to ensure we're continuing to make progress for the communities on individual claims that are there. I think the other one is just going to be assumptions on some of the recoveries that we've got here and the materials that we're showcasing today for prior wildfire recoveries as well. So in line at this point for the appropriate timing on proposed decisions, prior recoveries, and we'll continue to work our way through some of the legacy claims as well.
Richard Sunderland:
Got it. Thanks for the color there. And then just thinking about the expanded EPSS. How do you see an interplay with PSPS use this year, just how do you see that wider rollout impacting the need to implement PSPS?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, it's a great question. We're continuing to learn and optimize these and both of those very important tools. I do want to remind and thanks for the prompt here Rich, I want to remind everyone listening that the system is safer today, because we know that we can rely on PSPS and EPSS under multitude of conditions. Regardless of weather, regardless of drought, we can protect our customers. Now we know that PSPS is a tool of last resort, and we only use it when the conditions warrant but we do have a model that when we look rearward, and we can see the previous -- our current algorithm against previous conditions, we would have prevented 96% of structures loss between 2012 and 2020. That is a significant safety mitigation. But we're pretty excited about EPSS. And what we learned last year, and the dramatic reduction in admissions on those circuits where we enabled EPSS. So keep in mind EPSS is enabled, even on a dry -- on a non-windy day, on a non-Red Flag Day when we know the conditions are ripe for a fire spread, we can enable those settings and we're in the process of engineering and preparing to have 100% of our high fire threat miles able to utilize the EPSS standard. So that's pretty exciting for us. I think it's an important combination of risk against that really enable us to keep people safe today.
Richard Sunderland:
Great, thanks for the time today.
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, thank you, Rich.
Operator:
Thank you. We have the next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill of UBS. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes, thank you.
Patricia Poppe:
Hi, Greg.
Gregg Orrill:
I was wondering, hi Patti. I was wondering if you could come back to the rate neutral securitization and sort of how you're thinking about the steps there and the timing for implementing that?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing, Hi, Greg. Looking basically at this point is just a reminder, this is at this stage already has had two approvals at the CPUC F5 nothing though. And so we're currently in the appeals process through the courts at this stage, currently looking at the earliest Q2 execution timeframe, just in terms of what we're seeing the appeals process kind of work its way through, still intend to execute this year, allowing us to take out that $6 billion in operating company.
Gregg Orrill:
Thank you.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Greg.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Greg.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question we have the line of Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. You may ask the question.
Stephen Byrd:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Patricia Poppe:
Hey, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just talk about EPSS expansion in 2022 and just wanted to check in terms of whether there are any approvals or other processes or do you feel fairly confident that that should be relatively straightforward to roll out more broadly in '22?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, we will obviously file as part of our wildfire mitigation plan, we are moving forward and enabling the circuits. Some of the challenges we had early last year, when we did what we call our Hotline tag process, which is different than our full EPS engineered, coordinated settings that we're installing now, they had a significant impact on a small handful of customers who had multiple outages that were long, because it would take out a really long stretch of a circuit. And we'd have to patrol it to make sure that it was safe before we re-energized, we've much dramatically improved our ability to address those challenges by coordinating the settings, engineering it so that a much smaller portion of the line is de-energized when it's made contact with something, whether it's a tree or an animal, that would cause a spark, we are de-energizing a 10th of a second, which is incredible. But then much shorter spans of line. So the patrol is much faster, and the restoration is much faster. And so certainly we work with our regulators to make sure they're comfortable with our approach here. And that filing will reflect that. But we're pretty bullish that this is a very, very important transformation of the safety and de-risking of our system on behalf of customers. And that that is something we're pretty excited about.
Stephen Byrd:
Well, that's helpful color. And then just one other for me, on the load growth discussion that you all laid out, you all laid out 1% to 3% load growth, how do you think about the impending factor in I guess the impacts of potential customer loss of load from distribute generation, whether it's for commercial customers, residential, et cetera, how does that factor into your thinking on load growth?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, so when we're talking about load growth, we're talking about wires growth, we do see that distributed solar actually is an important part of the mix here in California, both from a resiliency perspective, as well as that a peak mitigation particularly when combined with storage, which Stephen, you and I have talked about EVs many times. But I'm pretty excited about the bi directional charging capacity of these new electric vehicles that are on the road today. And the combination of that storage with distributed energy. And certainly has an impact you could describe on load, but I think of it much more as a key enabler to the kind of supply that customers want, that's resilient, that can serve a peak demand and reduce the number of flex alerts we have here in California and make our supply more reliable, and at the same time electrification, and those EVs still does grow demand. So net-net, that's where we come out on this 1% to 3% over time of electric load growth, even with those distributed resources. It's a pretty exciting combination of technologies.
Stephen Byrd:
Great, thank you very much.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Stephen.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question we have the line of Mr. Ryan Levine of Citi. Your line is now open. You may ask your question.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning.
Patricia Poppe:
Hi, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, how's it determined that the target 3600 underground mileage for undergrounding is appropriate that was laid out in the plan today? Is there any color you're able to share?
Patricia Poppe:
Well, as we've mentioned publicly, we've announced that we're going to do 10,000 miles. And so what we have challenged ourselves and what we're forecasting we're going to do is essentially doubling the miles every year. So in 2020, we did 75 miles in 2022, or in 2021, we did 75 miles, in 2022, we are shooting for 175. And then we'll grow that double, double, double each year until we get up to about that 1,200 range, which we think would be a reasonable level. Now I say all that to say, we have to prove that out, we have to do it. We have to actually execute on those plans and we felt like that was the sort of ramp given the feedback we've received or requests for information from global contractors that we could conceivably deliver. But obviously that all have to be approved through our regulatory filings and more to come on that as we work with key stakeholders across the state to make sure that that plan is one that everyone supports.
Ryan Levine:
Thanks. And then a follow-up, what would be the timeline for PG&E to get more concrete bids on the cost of undergrounding given the more information that was received at this point?
Patricia Poppe:
Yes, that'll be coming in the coming months, we've got to first align with stakeholders on the volume we're looking at. And we'll do the bids. And we'll have a pretty comprehensive contracting strategy for how we'll complete that work and with whom will partner and what portions of that we will in-source, what we will outsource et cetera. We're building out that plan as we speak.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate the color, thank you.
Patricia Poppe:
Thank you, Ryan.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no further question at this time. I would now like to turn the call over back to Ms. Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe:
Thanks, Mel. Thank you, everyone again, for joining us today. You know, I just want to reiterate that we have really taken very positive steps forward on our wildfire risk. The combination of EPSS and PSPS in the near-term today makes the system safer, hardening the system, reimagining it with undergrounding as our really backbone of our hardening program going forward gives us a lot of confidence going forward on our ability to keep people safe. I think the other thing I really want to leave you with is that our simple but affordable model is the past to both keep people safe and to deliver for investors. So we think there's no trade-off here, we can have the important capital work done offset by cost savings and load growth and other smart management techniques, we will work to deliver for customers every single day and for you delivering predictable outcomes for investors. This is a near era for PG&A and we can't wait to take the right along with you. So thanks so much for tuning in today. Be safe out there.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to PG&E Corporation Third Quarter 2021 earnings call. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Fallon, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Matt Fallon:
Thanks, Jenny. Good morning, everyone and thank you for participating in PG&E 's Third Quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Patti Poppe, our Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company's actual financial results are described in the second page of today's Third Quarter Earnings Call Presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. The presentation can be found online along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30th, 2021. Before I hand it over Patti, I would like to thank all of you who attended Investor Day, either in-person or virtually and we look forward to seeing you again at EEI.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Matt. Hello, everybody. Thank you for joining us today. This quarter, we delivered non-GAAP core earnings of $0.24 per share. We're reaffirming our 2021, non-GAAP core earnings per share guidance of $0.95 to a $1.05. And we no longer expect to issue equity in 2021. We continue to see rate-based growth of 8 1/2% and longer-term earnings per share growth of 10%. Chris will provide more details on the financials in just a bit. As you saw at Investor Day, our experienced team is driven and focused on delivering clean energy safely every day. We have a very sophisticated and continually improving PS algorithm year-over-year. In fact, when we back cast our current models to the previous utility cost fires between 2012 and 2020, we would have prevented 96% of the structure damage had the current model then in place. This year, we also implemented enhanced power lines safety settings to address wildfire risks we face from extreme drought conditions. In fact, since the end of July through mid-October, we saw a 46% decrease in CPUC reportable ignitions and high-fire threat districts. And an 80% reduction and ignitions on enabled circuits. These enhanced safety settings make our system and our customers safer. We're delivering on the 2021 Wildfire Mitigation plan with our lean operating system and deploying it across the entire Company to deliver predictable outcomes for customers and investors. In addition to quarterly operational, financial, and regulatory updates, I'd like to spend some time on the work done and the changes made since 2019 that make our system safer and more resilient. Let's start on Slide 4 with how we've improved our QPS, WPS programs since 2019. In 2019, we had seven events that impacted over 2 million customers. Since then, we've installed approximately 1,300 weather stations, 500 high definition cameras, and over 1,100 analyzing devices to better pinpoint exactly where we need to initiate PSPS. Our 2021 PSPS algorithms are informing -- are informed by more granular weather forecasting. And we're using Technosylva software to incorporate machine learning into our fire spread modeling so we can better predict where the risk is on our system in real time. Our continuous improvement approach applies to addressing safety risks while minimizing disruption to our customers. As you can see on slide 5, our model shows that by back casting our new 2021 PSPS algorithm onto 2012 to 2020, we would have prevented 96% of the structure damage from fires caused by overhead electrical equipment in our service area. As you know, this year, we experienced extreme drought conditions in our service area. Due to these conditions, we saw fires spread on non-red flag warning days. We assessed these risks and identified where we needed to focus. Guided by former CAL fire and local fire authority personnel who now work for PG and E. We implemented additional Wildfire Mitigation in our high-fire threat area. You can see the results of our safety focus on slide six. We've compared the data since we implemented our enhanced power lines safety settings against the most recent 3-year averages. What we've seen is a 46% reduction in CPUC reportable admissions in our high-fire threat districts from the end of July to mid October. On the specific circuits where we first implemented the enhanced power line safety settings, we've seen an 80% decrease in ignitions over the same time period. We're working hard to reduce the customer impact from these new necessary protocols. We've optimized our protective device settings on all circuits that have enhanced power lines safety settings, and we've adjusted our circuit restoration procedures. These enhancements are making out into smaller and faster to restore, while still removing the admission risk. We're communicating transparently our commitment to preventing fires of consequence to communities where enhanced power line safety settings are in place. Let me make it real with one story. On Monday, October 11th, we initiated a PSPS event that affected about 20,000 people. The winds came in as forecasted, and in 33 instances outside of the PSPS zones, in the highest wind areas, our lines automatically de -energized due to the unpredictable disturbances, and potential risk was mitigated. We know our protocols are working. We will continue to work around the clock to make these solutions less disruptive to customers and know that we are keeping them safe while we do that. Our experience since implementing these settings in late July, will serve as an important guide for our 2022 planning. As we continue to keep people safe each day, I want to talk a bit about the risk reduction work we've completed since 2019. Let's start on slide 7, with our enhanced inspections. As you can see, we're on track to complete our enhanced inspections on $0.5 million assets in 2021 in our high-fire threat areas. These inspections are scheduled to be conducted every year on all assets in Tier 3 and every 3 years for all assets in Tier 2. At the bottom of this slide, you'll see a couple of points on our routine inspection program, which gets a lot of attention internally, but really isn't well known outside of PG&E. As you can see in the green box, we conduct vegetation management inspections across our entire system annually and in high-fire threat areas, we patrol those conductors twice a year. In 2021, we plan to complete 1,800 miles of enhanced vegetation management work combined with what we completed in 2019 and 2020 adds up to over 6,000 miles by the end of this year. While we're focused on keeping people safe with inspections and vegetation management, we're also focused on the longer-term hardening of our system. In the last three months, we've made great progress against our multi-year 10,000 mile under grounding program. Our engineering team is scoping out the work, as you'll begin to see in our 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan. Our goal is to engage the entire community around the imperative of undergrounding, and we are succeeding. We are engaging stakeholders through our undergrounding advisory group with representatives from environmental groups, labor, telecom, consumer advocacy groups, county of Tri -Eds among others. And we're gathering ideas on innovations in engineering, equipment and construction from the world's best through our RFI process. We're continuing to work on system hardening as you can see here, and we'll provide an update on how we're thinking about that work as we further develop our undergrounding program. As a sneak peek, I'll share one projects we completed this year. In September, we completed undergrounding power lines in Santa Rosa, which resulted in 11,000 customers who will no longer be impacted by PSPS. This is one of many projects. This is the right solution for our customers in that area and that's why we did it. Simple solutions based on customer needs. As I mentioned, more to come on our undergrounding plans as we move into early 2022. At PG&E, effective implementation of our Wildfire Mitigation Plan is enabled by our lean operating system, which we're deploying across the entire Company. Every day, we have over 1200 daily operating reviews beginning with our crews closest to the work first thing in the morning and cascading to our executive operating review. These brief 15-minute huddles provide daily visibility on the metrics that matter more, help us identify gaps, and quickly develop plans to support our teams closest to our customers giving us control and predictability of our operations. As you know, this summer, we were challenged by the Dixie Fire and the impact of fire hit on all of our customers. I'll repeat what we said since Investor Day. Our actions around Dixie were those of a reasonable operator and we're confident in the framework created by AB 1054. AB 1054 resulted in a Wildfire fund to provide liquidity for results claims, a maximum liability cap for reimbursement by investor owned utilities, and enhanced prudency standards when determining that reimbursement amount. We're reflecting that view in our financial statements, which show gross charge of $1.15 billion. We've booked an offsetting $1.15 billion receivable that reflects our confidence to recover costs. As I highlighted, PG&E is working hard every day to deliver clean energy safely. We're building on the mitigation programs we started in 2019. We're staying nimble to respond to current conditions, and we are improving our performance enterprise life. For example, our team just last week, responded to an atmospheric river weather event. That included among the highest rainfall totals observed in a 48-hour time frame ranging from 16 inches at Mt. Tam to 5 inches in Downtown Sacramento. The strongest wind gust recorded was 92 miles per hour -- from miles per hour -- in Alameda County with at least a dozen other locations experiencing gust greater than 69 miles per hour. Even in the face of returning service to 632,000 of the 851,000 customers impacted within 12 hours. I am very proud of the safe and rapid response of our team. Now I'll hand it over to Chris to cover financial and regulatory items.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti. As Patti referenced earlier, our financial plan remains on truck, and is supported by a regulatory construct. I'll cover the highlights first, then go into more detail. Today we're announcing that we no longer see a need for equity in 2021, for this year, and we anticipate issuing our 2022 guidance on our Q4 earnings call. Additionally, we're seeing progress on recoveries related to prior well by our risk reduction investments to help the Balance Sheet. Let's start with the share count used for Q3 2021, and year-to-date GAAP and non-GAAP core earnings per share were a GAAP loss position for both Q3, 2021, as well as year-to-date 2021, due to our granter trust election this quarter. As a result, we're required to use basic shares outstanding to calculate both GAAP, EPS and non-GAAP core EPS for Q3 and year-to-date. Our full-year guidance, as always assumed, a GAAP positive year and our full-year non-GAAP core EPS of $0.95 to a $1.05 per share reflects our fully diluted share count. So there's no impact there. I'll start with our Q3 results. We continue to be on track for the 2021 non-GAAP operating EPS of $0.95 to $1.05. This is calculated using our fully diluted share count I just mentioned, consistent with our assumption when we initiated guidance. Slide 9 shows the results for the third quarter. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.24. We recorded a GAAP loss of $0.55 including non-core items. This quarter we recorded a $1.3 billion charge, we've previously guided to as a result of our grantor trust election. As you recall, this charges expected to reverse over time, as the fire within and trust sells shares. Moving to slide 10, as Patti mentioned, we took a $1.15 billion charge this quarter for the Dixie fire. We also recorded a 1.15 billion of offsetting receivables. And the receivables reflect our confidence to recover costs based on the facts and information available to us today. And as a reminder, we recognize the receivable if we believe recovery is profitable under the applicable accounting standard. And due to the fact currently available, we're not in probable for recovery of amounts exceeding insurance for the 2019 Kincaid in 2020 dog fires. Therefore, we haven't recorded offsetting receivables for either of those fires. On Slide 11, we show the quarter-over-quarter comparison for non-GAAP core earnings of $0.24 per share for Q3 2021 versus $0.22 per share for Q3, 2020. EPS increased due to $0.03 of growth and re-based earnings, $0.02 from using basic share count as a result of the GAAP loss I mentioned earlier. And a penny from lower Wildfire Mitigation costs. Partially offset by a penny decrease due to timing of taxes that will net to 0 over the year. We expect a stronger fourth quarter due to timing of regulatory revenue and efficient work execution. Moving to Slide 12, we are reaffirming our non-GAAP core EPS of $0.95 to a $1.5 on the debt side, we expect to complete an initial 80, 10-54 securitization transaction this month for $860 million. Our separate rate-neutral securitization is also good approved by the CPUC and 1, 3 resolve the final legal steps, we anticipate we'll start issuing bonds early next year. Now some updates on regulatory matters, off specifically highlight important filings reflecting both our focus on timely cost recovery for historical spend, and our focus on the planet supporting California's clean energy future. Turning to slide 13. At the end of the third quarter, we've requested cost recovery for approximately 80% of the unrecovered wildfire related costs in our Balance Sheet. And we already have final decisions, settlement agreements, or interim rates for roughly 60%. In September, we filed a settlement agreement for our 2020 Wildfire Mitigation and Catastrophic Event application. Our request is $1.28 billion comprised of prior wildfire expense, including costs that were incurred in 2018. Given some of these costs predated Wildfire Mitigation Plan construct, we feel the settlement of $1.04 billion is a reasonable outcome. Most recently on this front in September, we filed for recovery of $1.4 billion of additional Wildfire Mitigation and Catastrophic Event costs. Most of the costs are incurred last year and under our proposal, most of the revenue would be recovered in 2023 and 2024, you should expect to see similar filings in coming years as we seek timely recovery of any incremental spend in these areas. Next, I will cover a brief update on our cost of capital application. In late August, we filed a cost of capital application for rate increase in cost of capital for California utilities, as seen from higher interest costs and equity issuance costs. At this stage will follow the recent direction by the administrative law judge and file materials that would have been included in the cost of capital adjustment mechanism advice letter by next Monday. The filing will include calculations of the ROE, half the debt, and the resulting overall return on rate base from the operation of the adjustment mechanism. The ALJs order [Indiscernible] admit the relevant information into the cost of capital proceeding, rather than requesting as to file an advice letter. Our focus on the triple bottom line of people, plan it and prosperity is also not flowing down. Just the adoption for under staffed communities, and of course, support California 's greenhouse gas reduction goals [Indiscernible] extension of our fully subscribing successful EV charged network program. We request [Indiscernible] a total revenue requirement, roughly $225 million from 2023 through 2030 to provide the infrastructures to support 16 16,000 new charging ports, which is just scratching the surface to meet the demands of our customers, who today are driving nearly 20% of the electric vehicles in the country. We are proud to serve the largest base of customers owning and purchasing EV s in the U.S. -- clinical need to reduce wildfire risk in the near-term while running the business effectively for the long term. And we've eliminated our 2021 equity needs. We'll continue to -- in the right investment to deliver clean energy safely to our customers. And with that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Chris. Every day we are more and more excited about the future we're creating here at PG&E. We can see the difference that's being made and the value to be unlocked. We continue to reduce wildfire risk and we're encouraged by the [Indiscernible] calls are the right solutions on high wind days and our enhanced power lines safety settings are necessary and effective in reducing ignitions and the resulting damage given our current drought conditions. We're focusing our work to make our system safer every day. We're adapting based on what we learned so we can best serve our customers and you, Our investors. We'll deliver on the financials and we will continue to implement the necessary processes to run a high performing utility. Jenny, please open the line for Q&A.
Operator:
Your first question is from Jonathan Arnold with Article of Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Morning guys. Thank you for the update.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
A couple of questions. Chris picking up on your comment on cost of capital, the fact that the ALJ didn't require the [Indiscernible] resolution of the applications or is it a little early to tell and we need to wait for the scoping memo or some other directive on that?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Good morning, Jonathan. And again this is a reminder for everyone, that trigger mechanism itself would have implied a 60 basis point reduction, which for us is roughly $0.6 of EPS. In terms of the current state of affairs, we'll be filing this next set information next Monday, but it is true, Jonathan, that our position is that the rates are not adjusted, January 1st, 2022 by the ALJs ruling, and so that's the scoping memo, but we do think that was a good development in terms of how the judge is treating that next step.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just I guess sort of stepping back a little bit and considering the taking in at the equity out of the -- this year and then the securitization you're about to do, what point in the -- in your forward outlook does the utility arrive at a point where it can stop paying a dividend to the parent and then we can start to think about some strategy levering?
Matt Fallon:
Absolutely. We're looking forward to that, Jonathan. Again, our commitment is really two-fold right? First delay on that period in which we would have non-GAAP core earnings exceeding it, a cumulative $6.2 billion dividend and certainly we'll be partnering. And Patti and myself partnering with our board to the reinstatement level and growth rate at that stage.
Jonathan Arnold:
Matt [Indiscernible] that restriction is on the common that the parent Company dividend range but does the utility stock dividend to the parent before that or is it also.
Chris Foster:
At this stage, you may have seen that we have disclosed this quarter actually in inter-Company loan. So I think at this point, we've got the path to make sure that we're really stable be it mid-year 2023.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you.
Chris Foster:
Sure Thing.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Patti Poppe:
Morning Steve. Yes we can hear you Steve. Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
Thanks. Curious on the -- last week we got the proposals from the democrats in their infrastructure bill, the way we want to call it. And wanted proposals, is this minimum effective tax rate. And I know it's early on, I know it's not pass ed, but is there any risk that that could kind of impact the ability to get all your NOL and also the securitization tied to the NOL?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Steve. Good morning. Thanks for the question. I think in its highest level it is -- it's definitely a little bit early in terms of our initial read of this, just given a draft was provided, I believe last Thursday, there's really a couple of things going on. First is that the tax NOLs are derived separately are not impacted by book minimum tax and the proposal really is focused on book and wealth. And then second, as you can imagine, just kind of going forward very traditionally, these costs are considered costs that are part of cost of service and are passed through the customers. So it's a bit early to know exactly how this will play out. And certainly the draft again and DC could change again, but at this stage, I don't see an immediate impact coming through from the [Indiscernible] and the minimum tax.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Great. And then question just on the 0 equity this year, it does also look like the contribution -- the billion dollar contribution to -- for securitization was moved to next year. Does that mean the equity could have been moved to next year then or not clear yet?
Chris Foster:
Not necessarily, Steve. We've consistently articulated that our focus has been on resolving really prior legacy legal issue that has driven some of the equity needs. And as we disclosed today, we made some progress in particular on the Zalk fire. What I would say is, it is true and we've been signaled pretty clearly here that the -- any additional impact there as it relates specifically to the customer credit trusts would be something that would move into 2020 meaning that first billion payment, right? Would be only occurring after we have completed the securitization itself. So don't see a risk there.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. That's great. And then just lastly, on the Dixie Fire cost, I know that was obviously a large fire in terms of the acreage, but the impact in terms of structures seem to be relatively small and so I'm a little surprised that the size of costs relative to the structures. Could you just maybe give us a better sense of What might explain that?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Traditionally, what we'll do, Steve, every quarter is we'll consistently update this at this stage. When you look at the totality of structures impacted, what's going on there is you have a mix of a few things. 1. It's the roughly 1400 structures that were damaged or destroyed, 2. There's often good element of commercial area specific affinity, and 3. There are some areas where we have to contemplate the potential for private timber operations, which would have all on top of each other, you get to the point where we get in terms of those private claims recoveries in the charge we disclosed today of $1.15 billion.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. In your ability, the AB 10-54 is what allows you to be able to offset the write-offs, which shows, I guess being prudent.
Patti Poppe:
And Steve, just to add, acting as a reasonable operator. We look at the fact pattern. We've disclosed much of [Indiscernible] questions. A lot of the information we have is now public through his questions. And in fact pattern is very much [Indiscernible] operator. And with the AB 1054 new prudent standard that is presumed that does gives us a [Indiscernible]
Steve Fleishman:
Great thank you so much for all those answers. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Yeah.
Chris Foster:
Cheers, Steve. Thanks for those questions. And again, what we did in terms of the material this morning for everyone, is if you go to slide 10, we give a gentle recovery mechanism there. Certainly, AB 1054 and its key protections are there, but there are a few other -- this morning. Thanks for that question, Steve.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin:
Good morning. So maybe to follow up on Steve's question there briefly, can you talk to a little bit more of the process just in terms of seeing that affirmed through the [Indiscernible] effectively truing it up with [Indiscernible] the $600 million plus of suppression costs would have even, when do we get that affirmation that the process under the AB 1054 Wildfire Fund "works", if you will? And I know it is [Indiscernible] here, but how do you practically see it from here given now that you've established receivable?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing. First things first work our way through the claim themselves. It's very early in terms of any kind of claims interface we're having at this stage. And you traditionally had a time period that passes in terms of the first couple of years before the initial statute limitations stage. At that stage, once we've resolved the claims, and as we resolve the claims, we only then would be maybe bringing things forward to the Wildfire Fund Administrator. Really the Wildfire fund to seek potential recovery. Any guide Julien, this could be a few years before we're having that explicit interaction. And things related to fire suppression costs, other additional acreage impacted in national and state forest land. Those are things we provided in the disclosures certainly today and we'll continue to take a look at and that's just something that every single quarter we consistently [Indiscernible] 1.15, and the recovery sources would be pretty limited in terms of the Wildfire fund impact [Indiscernible] appear you can imagine, it's just that amount over $1 billion, so roughly a 100 [Indiscernible]
Julien Dumoulin:
Right. In deed. Excellent. And then if I can give it to a slightly different subject here, if you don't mind, on the resource adequacy front, certainly we made it through the summer relatively unscathed when are you curious to see where you stand -- where the state stands against whether [Indiscernible] curious on your state of the shares after the summer.
Patti Poppe:
Yeah, great question. It's definitely top of mind. We did see some delays, particularly a battery storage. However, we expect to have over 900 megawatts added to the system by the end of this year. And so that's all that's valuable for next year. In total, our plan is to have 40 megawatts by the end of 2023. And we're working hard to get those [Indiscernible] we can make up for the delays that continue to plague the supply chain. I'll also our path forward that I think the state of California is actually doing a good job of looking statewide at who's responsible for procuring what. We've developed a strong working relationship with CAISO. CAISO had some new leadership there and we're working together to make sure that we have the kind of transparency and visibility into what is required by when. And so lots of I would say positive momentum and working together as a state to make sure we have adequate [Indiscernible] gets very important and we see the potential of distributed resources and clean energy resources in this unique time -- this unique moment in time, generational opportunity to clean the energy resources as we transition and provide more resource adequacy for the state. So I would say very positive signals moving forward.
Julien Dumoulin:
If you can just quickly [Indiscernible]
Chris Foster:
Hi Julien, it's Chris. There's not much more detail we can provide there. They do relate broadly speaking to the Dixie Fire. What I would offer as well is that -- you can imagine, we have an enormous amount of information in the public domain at this stage through -- primarily due to the requests that have come through from Judge Alsup and the federal monitor, so quite a bit of information already out, we've shared certainly what we've seen at this stage and at this point, we'd certainly be compliant with any request from the U.S. Attorney.
Patti Poppe:
At the end of the day, we continue to say that the fact pattern reinforces, that we are reasonable operator, and will continue to cooperate.
Julien Dumoulin:
Thank you for the responses, guys. Best of luck.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my question. Just a high level one, commodity prices have moved a lot. That's just everybody can look every day of the week and yet they come down in the last couple of days a little bit. How are you thinking about the bill? Because you've got a pretty sizable General Rate Case request out there. You've got all the various cost recovery related to Wildfire spins that are starting to flow to the bill, maybe not on the Income statement, but on the cash-flow statement and online customer sales. And then you've got the move in gas and purchase power costs, which have been pretty material lately. How do you think about things that can help offset that to mitigate significant Bill creep for your customer base.
Patti Poppe:
Michael, great question. This is -- obviously, top of mind affordability is always very important to us. And there's lots of things that we can do at PG&E to protect customers from bill increase. But just a couple -- just a couple of facts for you. Our average monthly gas fill is at around $50. So a 10% increase in gas prices would increase the bill about 2%. The commodity portion of the bill is about 25% of the bill. The impact is muted, but more importantly, I would say that because we have pipeline access to many gas production basins and we're able to -- that allows us to get the lowest cost gas as it's available and then we use our gas storage to then be able to protect customers from these unusual upticks in price and protect our customers in that way. So that's an important thing. And I would also say that as gas fuels electric prices, a 50% increase in electric power prices would have less than a 10% increase on our customers' overall bill, so again, because we have limited exposure to natural gas for our customers' electric usage. So I would say of many jurisdictions, our customers are well-positioned given the commodity prices. But more importantly, I would suggest that we -- also with our lean operating system in place to protect customers' bills, making great investments in band-aid replacements for permanent long-term, higher-value capital replacements that serve customers very well and better than deliver for investors. So that's definitely our game plan and our path forward.
Michael Lapides:
Can you believe since material Millennium cost decreased potential in the Company in the next couple of years, or do you think it's more beyond that?
Patti Poppe:
Well, I think we're seeing cost improvements to bay by Oliver already some of our wells on the visibility that we have with our daily operating review cadence, or experienced executives on a routine annual basis, I suggest those cost savings will materialize and they are materializing now and they won't materialize for years and years and years to come. I will share with you every moment that I spend of there being our operations, which is a lot of moments. I see great opportunities for waste elimination and costs savings for our customers.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Patti. Much appreciated.
Patti Poppe:
You're welcome, Michael.
Operator:
Your next question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
Morning. I wanted to step back on federal draft legislation again, building on Steve's question. Just thinking about other provisions that I notice, certainly think about sort of that quite a bit of capital [Indiscernible] climate change impacts, what that might be able to do from both PG&E specific [Indiscernible] reducing fibers? And then maybe just second part of the question is just very broad, which is just other impacts from federal legislation that you're thinking about the [Indiscernible] what I've been thinking about a sort of climate [Indiscernible] things?
Patti Poppe:
Steve and we have been actively engaged very early on in the great resilience, the climate adaptation components of much of the infrastructure package and we want to make sure that there were a couple of things that were recognized in each one is making sure that we can have support for our customers on vegetation management, which has a high expense item for us, as well as other grid hardening solutions, micro grids, or even undergrounding, and we see those elements in the package today. Now your guess is as good as mine of what they're actually going to get past, but they continue to be in the revisions that we see coming forward. So we think that's a good sign. We also are very [Indiscernible] Federal forest service. The U.S. Forest Service has a very important role to play here in California and we're working in partnership with them on fire prevention and fire mitigation efforts, and making sure they have appropriate staffing so that in the event of fires, they're able to adequately respond and so, we're very supportive of additional funding for the U.S. Forest Service. And then ultimately, obviously this clean energy transition. We've been leaders in that PG&E Today, we have an 85% greenhouse gas free generation mix and we're proud of that and we're proud of the leadership position we've shown nationally on that front. We want to make sure that the infrastructure package continues to reflect early mover versus, if you will, people who have advanced in clean energy early. We want to make sure that the package definitely recognizes that. So we've been working closely with our DC office and EEI and others to make sure that the clean energy components of any of the legislation is favorable.
Stephen Byrd:
That's really helpful. Petty, maybe just building on the point about fire risk, cost mitigation, I guess I'm thinking a lot about that magical 8-to-1 ratio of CapEx to O&M and to the extent that O&M cost can be deferred by federal support, could that potentially allow you to accelerate the under grounding effort in a way that does not harm customer bills because of that total support or is it unclear at this point?
Patti Poppe:
I would say there's lots of reasons why our customers will not be harmed economically by our program. First and foremost, even without federal assistance, your point about the trade-off between OpEx to capital is a key enabler to funding that under-grounding program. We know that the ongoing enhanced vegetation management and [Indiscernible] has a large expense to customers. We $1.4 billion a year on vegetation management, being able to trade off some of that for our capital investments in hardening the system, or even -- so for under-grounding for sure but also for micro grids and other hardening solutions, depending on the circumstances. That trade-off is very good for customers and we think there's a very -- and we'll start to demonstrate some of that in our longer-term financial plans and our Wildfire Mitigation Plan that you will see at the early part of 2022. We don't think that there's an economic trade-off for customers to safety. We think they can both -- we can both have affordable energy and safe resilient energy and that's our path forward.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. But I was thinking as well, but that could get accelerated even further. If you could get federal support that could lower your cost structure but I guess we'll stay tuned to see how the specific shape up for that.
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. No, your intuition is right on that, Stephen, of course it is. There's -- certainly any support from this package will be good for customers and we've got ample capital to deploy that if we can defray some of the costs to federal support, we're off for it. There's definitely lots to be done out here in California.
Stephen Byrd:
Very good. Thank you so much.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Stephen.
Operator:
The next question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning, guys.
Patti Poppe:
Morning Shar.
Chris Foster:
Morning Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Just real quick on the equity. Obviously, you guys removed the for this year, but I'd love to get a little bit of a sense on sort of the moving pieces as you're thinking about financing which seems to be a relatively ambitious CapEx plan rights as you're thinking about under grading, distributed generation micro grids would any of those programs push you to issue equity. I guess the broader question is, what would push you from 0 or do you think sort of Patti with the amount of leverage that you have at your disposal, like on the O&M side, that you can leverage that opportunity versus having to mitigate -- versus having to actually raise future equity.
Chris Foster:
Hey Shar, it's Chris. I'll go ahead and take it.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, Chris
Chris Foster:
I think -- morning. So I think there's a couple of factors. First we'll be growing into our undergrounding plan a bit. That's the way I would think about it as we start to reduce operating expense and work into that undergrounding plan, it will occur over time, we'll really start to disclose more details there as part of our 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan in February. We haven't guided toward 2022 equity needs at this stage specifically, but we would intend to do so again at Q4 and provide more color at that stage. I wouldn't necessarily just often consider, though what I'm getting at here, undergrounding or for that matter [Indiscernible] driving of an immediate equity need, there's going to be something we're really growing into this plan over time.
Shar Pourreza:
Just on under grounding. I'm curious, right? And I know you kind of mentioned it, but I'd love to get a little bit more of an early indication on sort of the cost and scaling up that 10,000 mile program, right? I mean, obviously the slides reiterate the plan through 26 with undergrounding remained, quote-on-quote, a potential opportunities bucket. Are there, I guess -- Patti are there any changes to the scope or timing that you're contemplating for such an undertaking from your prior messaging as the CPUC is starting to more actively inquire by your plans. So net-net, I guess, can you do more cheaper and faster?
Patti Poppe:
I would say we are very bullish on that Shire. We have started to have -- we get a global RFI for up construction and engineering firms and we received about 25 responses and we're very elaborate, we're doing face-to-face discussions with 7 of the firms and they're very affirming. It's very exciting, we can't wait to share more details and we will, but I'll just tell you that we feel more convicted than ever that this is an important part of the solution. And I will reiterate that our capital program is very expansive and under-grounding is a portion of it, we do think that it's an important portion of it, but I can tell you, I heard about just one example of a job last week where we're undergrounding as we speak and as we observe the work, we see tremendous opportunity to reduce the cost of doing that work, and when we're at scale. And so -- and in fact that project was in about the $2.5 million to $2.7 million a mile range. And that's the current active projects that is not what I would describe at scale. We will be at scale and when we are the costs are inherently lower. And so we are very, very bullish. And all of the feedback information and we have to respect the CPUC 's role to affirm that [Indiscernible] we know and what we can see moving forward we're very confident that as people see the numbers and the plan, they'll feel very excited just like we do.
Shar Pourreza:
Now that's helpful metric investors would like to see that 10,000 mile target tripled, but thank you for that. And then just last thing, I apologize I had to hop on and off the call but, can you just maybe comment on the recent wildfire safety division resolution ratifying actions from the 21 WMT update, especially as the resolution would require the 22 WMP update to be included in the GRC proceeding including sort of an explanation of the undergrounding plans. Does it complicate the proceeding or is it in line with sort of your GRC strategy? Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Yeah. I guess a couple of things, just to touch on. So the good news is, as you all remember, the Wildfire Mitigation Plan was approved by OEIS. The CPUC ratified that safety certificates, are ratified our plan on April 21st, 2021, and then we'll shortly file for our safety certificate. We do have a required safety meeting on Wednesday, November 10th with the CPUC and OEIS. We look forward to that opportunity to continue to talk about our plans. And so then shortly there after we'll file our 2022 Wildfire safety certificate for OEIS. Now, currently that Wildfire safety certificates that we currently have is in place until the following proceeding happens. So we feel very -- the process is happening as discussed. We think it's a great opportunity to talk more about our under grounding plans in our 2022 Wildfire Mitigation Plan, but we'll file that in February of next year. So no red flags as far as we're concerned, we feel good about how it's progressing.
Shar Pourreza:
Fantastic. Thank you guys, see you in a few days appreciating. Appreciate
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Once again, if you have a question, press star [Operator Instructions] Your next question is from [Indiscernible].
Jeremy:
Good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy:
Morning. I think [Indiscernible] recent years and just wondering if this might be a faster weather conditions and how much might be evidenced of any mitigation that investments you've been doing so far are really starting to turn the corner?
Patti Poppe:
Well, Jeremy, I appreciate you asking the question because it's a good opportunity for us to reiterate that we believe that our safety measures that we've put in place, the investments that we've made, the vegetation management, fee inspections, and the enhanced power lines safety settings combined PSPS, has made our system safer and our customers are safer and therefore our investors are as well as a result. Certainly, we were not disappointed to have a little early rain and rain is forecast today and later this week and that all makes us feel good. But as we look at our ignition rate, that is the most compelling statistic in my opinion, and I encourage everyone to look closely at it. In the areas where we implemented our EPS, we've had an 80% reduction in ignitions. I attribute that to that measure. I will also say that given the drought conditions that we experienced this year, historic extreme drought, we have fared extraordinarily well, and again, I -- in managing the vegetation and doing those inspections.
Jeremy:
Got it. That makes sense. And maybe just kind of picking up on your point there, given the success of these enhanced safety settings, what percentage of a high risk circuit can you expand these to, and how long might that take?
Patti Poppe:
Well, again, we can be very targeted about this. We know where [Indiscernible] dynamic tool that we can use. This year, we did around 50%. Next year, we could do a 100%, and we -- but it doesn't have to -- it's not like an on-off [Indiscernible] We can be very, very targeted, and we've done some work to really optimize the device settings to shrink the impact. The time to restore now is much closer to what the time to restore what's before we put it in the settings because we've shrunk the impact of each of the disturbances and our patrols have become more [Indiscernible] for our team's response this year has been extraordinary, particularly given the conditions and we know it's an important tool to have in our toolkit. Long-term, we know the ultimate solution is a hardened system that is designed and built to be resilient to wildfire and that's why our under grounding and all of our other mitigations are a very important path forward. But in the meantime, today, every day, customers on our system are safer because of the measures that we have taken.
Jeremy:
Got it. That's helpful. And just one last one if I could here, and understanding that anything other that's top priorities into Wildfire Mitigation Plan filing?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah, I think it's really continuing to streamline our vegetation management and our hardening plan. I do think that you'll see more of these remote grid applications. There's a lot of circumstances where we have a long radio running through a forest that we could just eliminate and don't even underground it, just equip those people at the end of that line with the distributed energy resource that is both cleaned and resilient to Wildfire and lower costs. And so we do think there's a variety of solutions that you'll see more of in our Wildfire Mitigation Plan for 2022 and beyond.
Jeremy:
Great, that's very
Operator:
The next question is from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Thanks for taking my questions. What portion of the gas [Indiscernible]
Chris Foster:
Hi, Ryan it's Chris, you can imagine, we don't disclose at that level of commercial decision-making for us, but I would just offer again to reiterate what Patti mentioned is, when you combine the gas storage, we've got, when you combine the availability from the basins that we have, you combine the hedging to limit volatility. And the fact that we have costs trued up annually, it really is combined a really good solution for customers and clarity for investors.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. But just to be clear, the 10% increase in gas and 2% impact on customer bill is on a hedge basis, and that to still confirm that. And then does that assume about 3 [Indiscernible]
Chris Foster:
I wouldn't think about that, Ryan, as netting a hedging impact. I would think about that just as a basic rule of thumb.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And [Indiscernible] that's being completed. And how much more [Indiscernible] it's possible this year under the current regulatory construct?
Patti Poppe:
Well, that's what we're excited to share at the beginning of next year, we'll start to show the miles and we're so excited about that's why we're at a very project-by-project basis now and so we can't wait to be able to share with everyone what the ramp-up plans and get the economies of scale with that ramp.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate that. And then there is a mention of seven parties in more face to face conversation, is the intention for one party [Indiscernible] you're able to comment.
Patti Poppe:
We're looking at it could be multiple, it could be one. We're not sure where that's the benefit of having these conversations with these folks will see it defies was a request for information. not a request for proposal, we're really working together to learn what is the best path forward.
Chris Foster:
And just that -- I think right for us, it's exciting scale it's natural to have a couple of large providers that you can create good, good competitive tension in there to get the best outcome possible for customers. We're definitely excited about what we're seeing so far. To entrants and we're winning in that list down to some really good potential partners.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Ryan.
Operator:
At this time, there are no other questions. Do you have any closing remarks?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, thanks Jenny. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Our system is safer every day, and we want you to know that. It's both safer for our customers and for you, our investors. We look forward to sharing more details with you and having more conversations with you at EEI next week. It's right around the corner. Be safe, everybody.
Operator:
Thank you for attending today's call, you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Release. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mathew Fallon, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go-ahead sir.
Mathew Fallon:
Thank you, Ashley. Good morning everyone. And thank you for participating in PG&E’s second quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Patti Poppe, our Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today’s discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's second quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures that can be found online, along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-K for the year ended July 30, 2021. And now I’ll turn it over to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Matt. Hello everyone. Thanks for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that PG&E delivered non-GAAP core earnings of $0.27 per share in the second quarter. We're reaffirming our 2021 non-GAAP core earnings per share guidance of $0.95 to a $1.05. And we're maintaining 2021 equity needs of zero to $400 million. Our rate base grows 8.5% and our earnings growth 10%. Our investments will provide lasting value to our customers, while our new cost reduction efforts will keep our customer bills affordable. All of this is good for customers and investors. Chris will dive into the financials in just a bit. Before I get started, I want to express how much I'm looking forward to seeing many of you in person on August 9, on our Investor Day. You'll get to meet the team we've assembled to lead the transformation of PG&E. We'll take a deeper dive into how we're implementing our PG&E lean operating system across the company with a special focus on our wildfire prevention works, and you'll also get a glimpse into the future opportunities for our company. For today, let's get right to it. I have a feeling I know what's on top-of-mind for you because I know it is for me. The Wildfire season is underway early this year. The Dixie fire started on July 13 and is now 23% contained. My heart goes out to the impacted communities, our customers, and my coworkers who've been affected by this and other fires. I'd like to thank both our crews who are working to make the area safe and CAL FIRE and the U.S. Forest Service for the challenging work that they are doing, in fighting the fires. As of this morning, the Dixie fire has burned 221,000 acres and has impacted about 60 structures. There have been no reported injuries or fatalities, thank goodness. As we've disclosed the morning of July 13, the power went out at our Cresta Dam Powerhouse. When the power plant personnel could not diagnose the problem, a line worker was dispatched to troubleshoot the outage. After substantial effort he arrived on scene and found a tree leaning into our line. The conductor was still attached to the pole and two fuses were open, he noticed a fire at the base of the tree. He called for help and attempted to stop the fire. We've filed a timeline with judge Alsup if he'd like more details. Adam Wright, our Chief Operating Officer, and I went to the fire to ensure that we were providing our full support to our community and our team. We followed the steps of our coworker and were surprised by what was required to access the location of that tree on our line. My co-workers’ efforts there reflects the tenacity and the professionalism of our team here at PG&E who come to work every day with one goal in mind to serve our friends, our families, and our neighbors who also happened to be our customers. Given the conditions this season and what we've learned from other fires, including the Dixie fire, we've taken additional actions to reduce wildfire risk during periods of no to low wind conditions. We've implemented a 911 standard for all faults in high fire threat areas. We're shifting to fast trip settings, our highest risk circuit sections and we're conducting additional safety patrols in certain high-risk areas. When we look at the tree density in our service area and the proximity to our lines, we know we must do something different. On one of my very early field visits. I was on a little dirt road watching us remove many, very large trees within falling distance of our power lines. When I saw that situation, I wondered if we could do something different. When I saw we were spending $1.4 billion of expense on trimming and removing trees annually, I knew we needed a permanent solution and to no longer treat this as an annual maintenance activity. Fortunately, my team knew this too. The team doing our Butte County rebuild showed me on my very first day on the job that they had cracked the code on lower cost, safer and more efficient undergrounding. The dots just had to be connected. A safer, permanent fix with a better expense to capital shift, which makes it safer and more affordable for the people that we serve. Undergrounding minimizes the need for PSPS, undergrounding saves the trees that we all love here in California, undergrounding makes the State of California safer, which is why last week we announced a multi-year safety initiative to underground 10,000 miles of power lines in the highest risk wildfire threat areas. This is not really a new idea or a new concept. Many companies who've dealt with climate resilience issues like hurricanes, for example, have found ways to harden their system with a variety of methods, including undergrounding. We know what can be done at scale here in California at a price our customers can afford. This effort will take some time. And as we've said, we want to take time to hear from a multitude of stakeholders to shape the best plan possible. We'll provide the initial actions on this plan when we file our annual update on our wildfire mitigation plan in February of 2022. But that will just be the start to serving our hometowns facing extreme risk with a safer, better and affordable solution. A critical protection in our system of wildfire prevention efforts is also our Public Safety Power Shutoff program. PSPS is an important backstop to prevent catastrophic wildfire and we will use it when conditions warrant to keep people safe. Our PSPS improved substantially in 2020, and we've made additional improvements for 2021. We continue to get smarter by being data-driven and utilizing technology. Last year, we included factors such as wind, humidity levels and fuels moisture in our modeling. This year, we're adding LiDAR imagery to incorporate trees that could strike overhead power lines. And as we continue to inspect and harden the system, we'll also include maintenance conditions to inform outage parameters. Another enhancement to our public safety program for 2021 is the use of Technosylva’s fire spreads simulation software. This software helps identify given weather conditions where we have fire spread risk real time. We'll be able to show you firsthand how all these technologies come together at Investor Day. Beyond the data and technology improvements, which allow us to pinpoint risk and minimize customers impacted, we're constantly evaluating how to lessen the impact for customers who ultimately do experience PSPS. We start by continuing to shrink the number of customers impacted through our vegetation management and hardening efforts by additional sectionalizing and by providing alternative backup power resources. For example, in May I visited Pollock Pines, a small foot-hill community where approximately 4,500 of our customers have experienced a seven PSPS outages since 2018. Earlier this month, we successfully installed a microgrid in Pollock Pines, which will allow customers there to have access to an energized downtown and critical services, including the fire station, pharmacy, grocery store, and a Red Cross designated shelter at a local church. Downtown Pollock Pines is already served by underground lines, which means it can be safely energized during PSPS with the temporary generation resource that we've enabled. We'll continue to look for opportunities to use micro grids to power through PSPS. It's very important that we implement the key commitments of our Wildfire Mitigation Plan. Through June, this year, we've completed 91% of our vegetation management in the highest risk areas, consistent with our commitments. And we've inspected over 375,000 assets, including 355,000 poles. Since 2018, we've performed nearly 5,000 miles of enhanced vegetation management. We’ve also fully inspected 100% of our lines and vegetation in tier-three high fire threat districts. Two times since 2018 and repaired the critical items found. To monitor this work, our lean wildfire command center in San Ramon, which you’ll see on the ninth helps us identify, escalate and resolve gaps. So we can stay on track with our commitments and our work plan. Our execution of the plan is a critical component in the wildfire certificate process, which has enabled access to AB 1054 funding. We are zeroed in on the fulfillment of our plan. The structures and resources, the state has put into place are also critical improvements. This includes the framework that we have in place through AB 1054, our regulatory construct and legislative support for increased CAL FIRE resources. AB 1054 was created to provide utilities with a funding mechanism for resolved claims in the event of a utility equipment caused wildfire. Under AB 1054, we first submit an annual update to our wildfire mitigation plan outlining the work we’ll do across the system in order to mitigate fire risk. Approval of our plan as a necessary condition to obtain a wildfire safety certificate. Having a safety certificate makes us eligible for the AB 1054 protections, which in effect provides a backstop to pay wildfire claims. These protections include a presumption that our actions are reasonable and provide a cap on our liability. We’ll be applying in the fall to renew the safety certificate. A key condition is approval of our 2021 wildfire mitigation plan, which we expect to receive in the next month or so. The point is this, identify the right work and execute it. I assure you we’re doing just that. I’m asked by many of you, why should someone invest in PG&E under such difficult conditions? I answered by saying few are better equipped and aligned with the state to succeed. We need California and California needs us. We are partnering more than ever to mutually protect and serve our customers and to provide an attractive return to you, our owners and investors who make the necessary investments for our customers possible. I’m asking all our partners to join us. It will take all of us to address climate change on a scale, unlike anywhere else. Together, we can make it right and make it safe again. I’ll hand it over to Chris now to give the financial update for the quarter. Chris?
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti. As Patti mentioned earlier, we’ve continued to meet our financial and regulatory objectives. I’ll cover the highlights, then go into more detail. We’re on track for our year end EPS guidance landing at $0.27 for the second quarter and $0.50 for the year. We’ve maintained our equity needs guidance of zero to $400 million. And we submitted our 2023 generated case and updated our CapEx and rate-based forecast to reflect this important filing. As I mentioned, we’re on track for the 2021 EPS range we set out of $0.95 to $1.05. Slide 8 shows our results for the second quarter. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the quarter came in at $0.27. We recorded GAAP earnings, including non-core items that are also shown here. We have made further progress on legacy legal claims. As a reminder, we have resolved the claims asserted by the public entities in both the Kincade and Zogg Fires. We’ve continued to try and fairly resolve claims brought by individual claimants related to Zogg Fire and have reached settlement. We also continued discussions with insurance carriers. Progress on these settlements is about making it right for impacted communities. Based on these updates, we increased our accrual for claims related to the Zogg Fire by $75 million to a total of $375 million. This is within our insurance coverage. And so there’s no earnings impacts from this update. Moving to Slide 9. This shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for our non-GAAP core earnings of $0.27 per share for Q2 2021 versus $1.03 per share for Q2 2020 or $0.26 per share after adjusting for the increasing shares outstanding. EPS decreased due to $0.03 of unrecoverable interest expense, $0.01 from the timing of nuclear refueling outages, and $0.01 from the timing of taxes that will net to zero over the year. These decreases were offset by $0.04 of growth and rate base earnings, $0.01 from fewer wildfire mitigation costs above authorized, and $0.01 miscellaneous. Moving to Slide 10. We’ve updated some of our non-core guidance. First investigation remedies has been increased by $20 million to $130 million after tax. This reflects the June Presiding Officer’s Decision related to the 2019 PSPS Order to Show Cause that proposes a penalty of $106 million and will be offset by $86 million in bill credits we’ve already provided to customers. We have appealed this proposal. Second, our prior period net regulatory items forecast has been changed to a $50 million range. That reflects the outcome of our July GT&S capital settlement. The settlement will result in a $60 million reduction relative to application and also differs recovery over a five-year horizon starting in January of 2022. As a result instead of $200 million of non-core period recoveries in 2021, we now expect record prior period recoveries of $45 million in 2021 and an additional $100 million in 2022 through 2024. Our guidance continues to include a $1.3 billion charge that we expect to take in the third quarter. As a result of the grantor trust selection we made with the agreement reached with a fire victims trust earlier this month. This charge is expected to reverse over time as the fire victim trust fell shares. Increases in the value of our shares would also result in a larger tax deduction ensuing non-core pickups at the time of sale. Continuing with guidance, we are maintaining our equity guidance of zero to $400 million for the year. While we continue work to resolve claims related to the Kincade and Zogg Fire. Our focus remains on minimizing our equity need. Looking over the midterm horizon, you can see here on Slide 11, that we filed our 2023 general rate case in June, which drives significant investments in the coming years. The GRC provides a roadmap through 2026, including key system enhancements and safety improvements, emphasizing customer focus solutions and supporting the triple bottom line. The wildfire mitigation work makes up over $4 billion of investments across our 2023 generated case. We’ve updated our CapEx and rate-based forecast and extended them to 2026 to align with the GRC filing and increased expectations of our capital needs. On average, we plan to spend between roughly $8 billion and $10 billion of CapEx per year over this period. The low end of our range each year was largely unchanged and reflects amounts authorized in the 2020 GRC and the full amount recoverable through balancing account. The high end of the range has increased to reflect an incremental $1 billion of potential capital spend above authorized through 2022 and the capital forecast from the 2023 GRC application for the subsequent years. After incorporating the updated capital forecast with the increased high end, our long-term rate base maintained our roughly 8.5% CAGR. Alongside this growth, we are certainly focused on customer bill impacts. Currently, our customer’s bills reflect less than 3% of their average share of wallet. And on average, this compares to a roughly 3.4% average for the rest of the nation. Recognizing the diversity of our hometowns we serve, we will continue to execute an opportunity for cost savings that benefit our customers such as our recent San Francisco headquarters sale and capital plan enhancements to invest in the system at reduced costs. We’ve had updates on a few other key regulatory matters that I’d like to cover as well. In addition to the AB 1054-related benefits that Patti mentioned, this law also provides a lower cost financing tool in the form of securitization. This benefit will be realized by customers through our lower financing costs. Our AB 1054 securitization application has received a final decision and we anticipate bringing up to $1.2 billion to the market later this year. In June, we were pleased to reach a settlement to recover insurance premium costs recorded to the Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account or WEMA. Once approved by the CPUC, this would allow us to recover roughly $450 million of insurance costs for wildfire coverage from 2017 through 2019. As you can see on Slide 14, this is one example of the steps we’re taking to recover remaining $3.5 billion of wildfire related balancing accounts spent. To-date, we have filed for recovery of roughly half of this balance. And you should expect to see us continuing to file for timely recovery as we focus on balance sheet health. Separately, this quarter, we recognized four consecutive quarters of GAAP income with the quarter itself GAAP positive, which means we now have met each of the eight defined metrics required for S&P 500 inclusion. While this marks a milestone for us, as you know, we’re unable to predict the timing of inclusion, including how the charge we plan to take next quarter for the Grantor Trust Election could impact the timing of inclusion. We have executed well against our financial plan for the year and see additional opportunities in the years to come with the undergrounding goal we’ve announced along with a consistent focus on helping California [indiscernible] decarbonization goals. We are investing in key system enhancements and safety improvements that drive our 8.5% rate-based growth. We’ll continue to delever our balance sheet, seek recovery of incremental wildfire related costs and manage our equity needs. These financial results rest on the solid framework provided by our regulatory construct, the underpinnings of AB 1054, and they drive our 10% non-GAAP core earnings per share compound average growth rate. With that, I’ll turn it back over to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. We’re doing the right work for wildfire season and we have a good solid framework in place to mitigate risks and strengthen our financial health. We’re taking risks out of the system each and every day. And we’re prepared to use PSPS as a backstop to keep our customers safe. We have a long-term path in front of us that is focused on people, the planet and prosperity. The triple bottom line is reflected in long-term projections and in our daily work. We can’t wait to show you our progress when you come to see us for Investor Day on August 9. We know we must regain your trust and help you believe what I believe California is a great place for your investment dollars and so is PG&E. We look forward to seeing you August 9 at Investor Day. Ashley, please open the lines for Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin:
Hey, good morning. It’s actually Julien. Thanks for the time and the opportunity to connect.
Patti Poppe:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin:
Hey, congrats on continued progress here. I wanted to come back to where you started the call perhaps on the efforts to underground. How does that complement some of the earlier efforts on carbon conductors and de-energization efforts? I mean, sort of certainly, there’s sort of a belt and suspenders approach here. Can you talk sort of conceptually how it complements or does this replace in part some of the earlier efforts, if you can, as well as speaking to some of the early reception from stakeholders to the proposal?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, it is a complement, Julien, because we talk about 10,000 miles. Our highest risk miles would be included in that. But we have 25,000 miles of high fire threat district lines. And so this is an – and it’s a – in some places it’s an ore for the hardening plans we had before, but we know it’s a better solution in many areas, especially when we can do it at the kind of scale and in conditions that I think in the past, we’re perceived is not possible for undergrounding. And we’re seeing in Butte County, the progress that we can make the advancements in equipment that enable us to dig into even areas of granite, the potential for boring instead of trenching. And so I would consider it and there’s still going to be areas where we do hardening. They’re still going to be areas where vegetation management is an important part. But we think for certain areas, the 10,000 miles that we set out are really important miles that need to be permanently de-risked with undergrounding. And I would say it’s been received extraordinarily well by our communities and by all of our critical stakeholders. There’ve been a lot of people who’ve been asking us to underground, and the fact that we could prove to ourselves by the work that we’ve already done, that it can be done in an affordable way. And as well as I do Julien, and the transition from the OpEx that goes to funding veg management, when we can turn that into the capital to underground that it makes sense for investors to.
Julien Dumoulin:
Yes, absolutely. Thank you, Patti. If I can, a second question perhaps somewhat unrelated, but admittedly, a big a big issue in California, when you think about a resource adequacy and the dynamics last summer, and more critically going into the peak season here this summer. Can you talk about some of the actions you committed to year-over-year as well as some of the prospective actions you’re evaluating now in the very near term, as well as the longer term to help address the more acute flex alerts and things like that.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. You bet. As we look to this summer, and we’ve already had a couple of flex alerts. We have 11,000 megawatts that we planned to have available in August. And our forecasted peak is about 8,500 megawatts. That’s just for PG&E. But as you know, that we are part of the system and obviously part of the California CAISO construct. And so we were able to secure additional storage 700 megawatts of additional storage, including specifically one project that I’m particularly excited about that, I think bodes well for the future is our Moss Landing, utility owned generation, 182 megawatts of storage. It’s one of the largest storage utility owns storage facilities. It is definitely Tesla’s largest project that they’ve done anywhere in the world, and they’ve done it here with us at PG&E. And so I do think long term, however, we’ve got to do a better job here in California of matching supply and demand. And so we’re looking at pursuing additional demand response and leveraging more residential storage, like the Tesla power walls as a virtual power plant. We’ve got a pilot going for this summer to see how much capacity we truly could count on from those residential storage solutions as well. And so when I think about the future, I see all those things coming together, a softened demand peak because of great demand management on the residential and the commercial side, then combined with more distributed resources and storage as the perfect match to our solar duck curve. And so I think we – and at PG&A in particular have the opportunity to really lead in the deployment of storage as a peak resource solution set.
Julien Dumoulin:
Excellent. Well, thank you for the time. Best of luck to you and your customers this summer.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Julien. Look forward to seeing you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, can you hear me, okay.
Patti Poppe:
You’re a little quiet.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. So Patti just, this is obviously the first fire event that’s occurred since you’ve been there at scale. I’m just kind of curious how you’ve dealt with the political community regulatory and any reaction to your take on the relations there and kind of reaction to you?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, a couple of things, Steve. One, I’ll tell you, everyone is focused on one thing, getting the wildfire stop, particularly support for CAL FIRE and the work that they’re doing to contain Dixie Fire. But it’s not the only fire in the state. I think everybody sees that. There’s just so much more work to do. And therefore, that’s why our undergrounding announcement was so well received from the key stakeholders. All of the feedback I received, some of it was, it’s about times, and a lot of it was thank you. And so I do think our commitment to doing whatever it takes and challenging, perhaps old perspectives has been well received.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And just one question on the Dixie Fire respect to damages. In your release, you mentioned, or one of the risks is just the damage to trees. Is there any particular kind of special value of kind of trees in the region where it’s at? Is it a logging area or anything like that, or just any thoughts on that disclosure?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. No, there’s nothing unique or special there. In fact in some ways it’s a blessing that there were so few structures and people who live in the path of the Dixie Fire. So I would just say that no special additional exposure as a result. In fact, it’s probably less exposure given where the fire has traversed up to date.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just the lesson you mentioned, you’re due for your wildfire mitigation plan approval in the next month, or so. I think, has there been any like recommendations from parties or other things related to that?
Patti Poppe:
Well, we – sorry, Steve. Go ahead. I’ll go ahead and answer. Yes, we did receive some feedback as did all the IOUs when we originally filed our plans and we were asked for some improvements, but we’ve made those in the wildfire mitigation plan approval is expected here relatively soon. And we were happy to see the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety, OEIS, which will be a new acronym for everyone. OEIS is formerly the wildfire safety division. They did announce this week that they will issue the certificates by their objective is to issue them by December, 2021 for next year. And that we will submit our request for the safety certificate by September 13, 2021. And just to remind everyone, we do have an active certificate that carries us through to January of 2022. So we were really happy to see that they’re working toward a timeline so that we can have more certainty in the process. And so that’s good news.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. Thanks. Look forward to seeing you soon.
Patti Poppe:
Yes, we do too. Steve, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
A quick question, Patti, in your remarks, you mentioned having got 91%, I think of vegetation management in the highest risk areas. Could you just square that with Slide 6 where the percentages are obviously quite a bit lower, but I think they are sort of not just the high-risk areas perhaps. And then is there any chance of that updating, well, how much further along you got in July, because I think those are June numbers, right?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Couple of things. Number one, the 91% reflects of all the vegetation management we've done, what percent is in the high risk areas. If you'll remember our enhanced enforcement was reflective of the desire that our actions match the highest risk reduction areas. And so that the point of the 91% is just to say of the veg management, we've done 91% of it is in the highest risk areas, which meets the intent of enhanced enforcement. On the progress front, as you know the – I think in the slide, it says 598 miles today. We're moving miles every single day. And so for in our last 48 hour update, we are up to 754 miles of enhanced vegetation management achieved. We're working at about 10 miles per day, and this is one of those measures that's in our wildfire command center that we're tracking every single day. And so the pace of progress, the slope of the curve, if you will, has increased and is at its highest rate to date, because if you'll remember because of the risk mile we had to –front end, we had to really do a lot of replanning at the early part of the year to make sure that that vegetation management we did was in fact in the highest risk areas. So it's two signs of progress. One the 91% of the work that we're doing is in the highest risk areas. That's great news. And number two, we're up to 754 miles which is five miles ahead of our plan, which gets us to 18 miles by year end.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So you feel good about hitting these targets, regardless of where you might be on them today for those?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, I feel great about hitting those targets and I'm still thankful for my team. They are just on full force and doing a great job.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. And then just one other, if you could, maybe on the undergrounding plan and the – I think Adam mentioned your briefing last week that you would hope to do sort of 10,000 miles a year. How soon do you think you can get to that sort of level? And secondly can you sort of maybe relate that a little bit to your new rate-based forecast? Is there any, is that sort of some partly in there, or not really at all yet? Or how to think about that?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, one of the things we were very careful not to do in our announcement to our local community about the undergrounding effort is to not put a ceiling on how much we thought we could get done by when. Our objective is to do more faster, Jonathan. And so as Adam talked about a day that we could imagine ourselves beyond a thousand miles a year, when we think about today we're closer to 70 miles in a year. We know that curve to a 1,000, it's going to take some time, but we want it. I think of it like this, Jonathan, I think of it is right now. We're building model T's in Henry Ford’s old factory and we're about to turn on the assembly line. And so that's really what's on our mind. And so we're not capping our forecast and that's why we're not given an end date because we're working that plan with our engineers as we speak the reason for announcing it before the plan was all knotted down is because we wanted to get the input of critical stakeholders. We want to engage with our tribal leaders, with our environmental groups, with our local communities and determine the best place to do that undergrounding first. We know there's high demand for undergrounding. And so this is a great opportunity for us to engage with the people of California to change the risk profile of California and PG&E together. So I would say that when we file our wildfire mitigation plan for next year, we'll be filing that in February-ish first quarter 2022. You'll get to see the first couple years of it, but every year we're going to get better and every year we'll do more. And so we really are hesitant to put a cap on it, or set an end date because we're going to be very dissatisfied until we have fully de-risked the system. But I'll let Chris talk about the reconciliation to the rate case as filed.
Chris Foster:
Sure. Thanks Patti. Hey Jonathan. It's – at this stage, I guess what I would say is we're already seeing unit costs come down, which I think is impressive as we do some of the work here in the field that we're even just early scoping now and I emphasis on early. What you're seeing today in terms of our financial disclosures is that we are directly reflecting the 2023 generate case filing as well as our most recent wildfire mitigation plan filing from earlier this year that did have limited undergrounding envision. So what we're currently contemplating is, as Patti mentioned, looking at that February filing next year, we'll give you really the first look operationally and how that would roll out over the first few years. And we would anticipate Q1 or the first half of next year providing a more fulsome view of the complete financial impact with updated financial.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. That's great. Thank you for the clarity though. If I could squeeze one other thing and what's the latest on where you are with the main securitization docket and re-hearing requests and sort of expected timing to move forward there?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing, we had just an update this week. So again, this is for context, this is the $7.5 billion rate neutral securitization that we have filed for to the CPC. [ph] At this stage, Jonathan just had an update that next week on August 5, the CPC has calendar to do their affirmative vote which is an important next step. What that does is that puts us on track for late this year to early next year for executing those securitizations.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. Thank you.
Chris Foster:
Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Jonathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys. Thank you for taking my question. Patti, when I look at what other states and I'll use Florida as an example, has done, when proposing a major undergrounding program. They actually went to the legislature to ensure kind of an annual rigorous – analytical process for doing a 10 or 20 year forecast, but also to ensure rate making. Do you think you need legislation at all to get approval for this 10,000 mile program? Would you think it's best done in the wildfire mitigation planning process and how do you think about the – kind of what this, how a cost recovery for that spins occurs? Meaning is this something that gets included in rate base over a long period of time? Or is this something that's outside of rate base?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, well, I'm a big fan of what they did in Florida. There's no doubt that was a smart way to do it. I'm not convinced that we need legislation, nor am I convinced that we need funding outside the utility, but I wouldn't rule it out. As we work with our critical stakeholders, we'll talk about the best way to do this work. The reality much like Florida, where they wanted to harden their system against hurricanes. You can bet people in California are very motivated to rebuild and harden our system against wildfire. And so the most important thing is that we're considered a great resource to attract the capital, that we're the resource that can do the infrastructure at this kind of scale. There's very few entities that could be equipped to take on the risk and the work like PG&E for the State of California. And so we do look forward to partnering with those critical stakeholders in determining the best way to make sure that the work is done safely. And we most quickly de-risk the State of California against all the hazards that a wildfire bring.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then a follow-up on related to that. Just curious, when you're thinking about your 10% EPS growth rate, how are you all thinking about how the cost to capital mechanism could impact the ability to hit that growth rate, especially given the recent move down and kind of treasury – U.S. treasury yields and corporate bond yields and what that means for kind of 2022 and maybe even longer term.
Chris Foster:
Sure thing, Michael it's Chris happy to take it. I think there's a couple of things going on there. First is just the cost of capital adjustment mechanism itself. So seeing where the index is at this stage certainly looks complex to get to that. We'd have to average over 4% at this point to be able to stay out of the dead band. [ph] And so I think at this point it is increasingly likely that it triggers. So I would just say we're evaluating an options in real time on that front. And second, as you can imagine, we're currently looking at Q3 to provide an update there at that stage. We'll have the view on the impact from the trigger itself. And it will be in a situation where we could look forward for 2022 impacts and beyond. But at this stage, our plan internally is to plan conservatively. And ultimately the goal here is as Patti referenced earlier, and I referenced is we're really looking fundamentally at our five-year plan, Michael. Not just 2022, but the five-year plan and saying, let's think about how undergrounding folds in and at what pace, and let's continue to pursue more aggressive cost reductions so that we're both making room for those investments, but also keeping in mind affordability for customers.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And last thing with the high end of the CapEx been raised for the next five years especially in 2023 and beyond, how does that impact your multi-year financing plans?
Chris Foster:
Sure, thanks. So, I think at this stage, we haven't been too specific on equity needs outside of the explicit year. And I think what you would find is that we would have a reasonable growth rate there such that we would have limited financing needs. But I don't want to be too specific at this stage again, Michael, because we're actually working the five-year plan as you can imagine to fold in the undergrounding work.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Chris. Thanks Patty.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Michael.
Chris Foster:
Thank you
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Unidentified Analyst :
Hi, good morning team. It's actually Constantine [ph] here for Shahriar. Thanks for the very comprehensive update to this point.
Patti Poppe:
Hi, Constantine [ph].
Unidentified Analyst :
I just wanted to kind of follow-up on the question on the 2021 Wildfire Mitigation Plan progress, and kind of some of the categories showing kind of below 50% and where, as of, I guess, June, and can you just speak to the various categories and how they get prioritized? And maybe how do you plan to get ahead of the curve on these categories and any kind of risk of regulatory action that you may foresee?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah, one thing that's – I'm so glad you asked this question Constantine [ph], because one thing to clarify is that the percent complete doesn't – the plan doesn't have a linear line across the year. The plan has a curve to it mainly because of the pre-engineering work and getting the highest risk miles engineered and planned. And so, when we're in our wildfire command center every week, we're looking at that pipeline of work and confirming that we've got the work that'll feed the plan that completes on the finish date, where we're tracking daily targets. And I can tell you I'm feeling very good about our ability to achieve our in-year plan. So, for example, enhanced vegetation management is a good example, the status to date shows 39% complete, but we're five miles ahead of our plan, which gets us home on time by year end. And so that's – I don't want to confuse by those percent complete year-to-date, it's not a linear curve. So, there are some things though that we definitely want to have completed before August, September. And so, some of those things like asset inspections, for example, we've got almost fully completed. So again, all of these areas, system hardening, veg management, we're not trading off, like we'll not get veg management done. And we'll be willing to accept that we miss another area like hardening. No, no, our plan is to get all of them done. Some of them by year end, some have interim dates before year end. And so, we're on track with the plan and that's the power of this lean operating system. I know I'm a broken record on that, but that's because it makes a big difference. And I can tell you, I can assure you this team, this year has more visibility into our performance than ever before. And we know daily, and I'm getting a weekly, boots on the ground, like eyes on the work update of exactly where we are, which is what gives us a lot of confidence that we can complete the plan by year end.
Unidentified Analyst :
Excellent. I think that clarifies it quite a bit. Just one kind of follow-up on wildfires, your filings disclosed kind of a potential loss for Dixie. And just to understand the process of how, and kind of when the loss gets recorded and the insurance coverage and AB 1054, can you remind us of the insurance levels? And I think it's around $900 for, for this period and with some self-insured and we'll kind of, what's the timeline for AB 1054 protections and funding to get accessed?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, I'll make a couple comments and I'll take it to Chris to cover the insurance and some of the detailed timeline elements. But keep in mind it is early. And there's no way to estimate at this time the value of the damage done on the Dixie fire. Again, I will reiterate that it is a blessing that it's in mostly forested difficult terrain. It's difficult for CAL Fire to access the train, which increases obviously the acres burned, but very limited damage to structure and people for which we're very, very grateful. And we're very grateful for their skill in being able to, in some ways, direct the fire into the less populated areas. But I'll let Chris talk through the timeline when we do know what happens next.
Chris Foster:
Sure. Hi, Constantine. It's true. So, the timeline it's traditionally, it's going to take time. I’ll update that. It's ultimately at this stage, certainly even though we have the probable commentary in the queue, it's not estimable at this stage. We need to understand once the fire is contained to be able to understand the total impact. We also need to make sure that we're understanding of the result of the CAL fire investigation and any review that takes place there. So, when you typically look at a timeline and the situation you would have – it could be anywhere up to a year for a CAL fire investigation. You could then have multiple years that are required to complete review and eventually resolve any outstanding claims themselves. So, you're actually looking at a few years before there's any contemplation of interaction with the AB 1054 wildfire fund. So hopefully that provides a bit more color.
Unidentified Analyst :
It does. And I think if I may have a last question, just turning to something a little bit outside of wildfire than burying tables, the request from the City of San Francisco for PPC, they're going have to do a valuation of the assets that are within the city. Is there kind of a reasonable level that you would actually consider separating the assets? Is it even feasible? And does the CPC have any power in mandating the sale or is it kind of a lead into a potential common nation and municipalization proceeding?
Patti Poppe:
Well, first let me just say that PG&E has served San Franciscans for more than 100 years and we're proud to have that being true. The previous offers made by the city, well undervalued our assets. And so, they are filing just assets the CPC confirmed the value of our assets. And bottom line, we look very much forward to continuing to serve the people of San Francisco.
Unidentified Analyst :
That makes sense. Thanks so much for taking the questions.
Patti Poppe:
Yes. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Patti Poppe:
Hi, Stephen, good morning.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions Patti. Lots been covered. I wondered if we could just get your latest thoughts on the state insurance market in California for the virus, sort of everything from your own insurance to the ability of the State Wildfire Fund to get the insurance, I know you are not responsible for that, but just curious, and also sort of availability to insurance, to residents and businesses in California. That's sort of the state of play at the insurance market.
Chris Foster:
Sure. Hi, Stephen. Thanks for the question. I think there's really a few different things there, as you can imagine. First is a personal residential, small business coverage as you can imagine, that's been limited at this stage, although the state has stepped in, in multiple areas to make sure that there is coverage provided from companies in situations where homeowners really would have otherwise limited to no options. So, I think that's been a great example of the state evaluating that need for individual customers. As it relates to us and as it relates to the Wildfire Fund Administrator themselves, I think, what we're seeing at this stage is, is typically what we'd done. And we went out this year it really in the spring to really revisit some of our coverage as well on purpose to kind of test the market. At this stage, there still remains depth. The re-insurance market is there as well. And this is after the dramatic acreage that was impacted last year in California. So just to put that in context, that's over four million acres that were impacted. Yet we still saw a depth in the market. Now the pricing is substantial, as you can imagine, but we do have good cost recovery mechanisms here, both in terms of the email accounts that we have. But also going forward, we have contemplated actually a self-insurance construct that we have put forward in our 2023 GRC, because really Steven we're looking at this and these impacts over a number of years as it relates to customers. And this is hundreds of millions of dollars, right, that are really critical for us to be able to take on. But they're expense dollars that go really directly through the customers. So, we're actually interested in examining as self-insurance approach, where we could build this up over time, yet, not have to have that $700 million to $900 million plus impact to customers on an annual basis. So, it's a unique construct, and we think it's one that we put forward to the CPC and are hopeful there is a serious consideration there. Because ultimately for us, we are going to need to continue to procure a sufficient amount of coverage that makes us comfortable in any given year to protect against any substantial risks there for the company.
Stephen Byrd:
That really helps. And just going back to the large proposed undergrounding, it makes a lot of sense. I can see the efficiency of doing a large program and the benefit. And I wonder if you could just talk a little bit more about sort of the portion of your vegetation management relating to these 10,000 miles over what kind of time periods that could be reduced? Is it fairly linear, meaning as you underground, then your Vegetation Management Program can kind of proportionately declined potentially, or is it just too early to say, how are you all kind of thinking about that?
Patti Poppe:
Well, Steven we are obviously in early days of building out the plan and it will determine exactly which miles we're going to underground. But conceivably, you could imagine a mile for mile swap because we're going to continue to – we would have in the absence of underground and continue to manage the vegetation near any of our trees or near any of our lines. And so, as we underground, you can imagine that's one last mile to vege manage a mile for mile swap. And so that's really where the benefits are realized for customers. I mean, a $1.4 billion of annual expense in vegetation management is very expensive for our customers today. And so, to have a permanent repair, a permanent fix, a permanent risk elimination to make it safer and not have that ongoing annual maintenance expense really does benefit customers on two fronts, safety, risk, and affordability.
Stephen Byrd:
That's great. Maybe just following up on that, how do you – in terms of the customer bill outlook, it looks like the bill for residence is going up quite a bit over the next few years, and then it slows down. Is there a possibly kind of sculpt this so that there isn't further kind of customer bill pressure in the near term over the next couple of years when bills are going up quite a bit, or how do you – how might this kind of be feathered into the overall bill?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, it's a little early to say, though we do know just at the highest order, you can see that in the early years of the swap, there's been the swapping of expense for capital. The benefits are realized earlier that can help soften our curve in the near years. And our big opportunity here, and I can tell you with fresh eyes looking at how we do our work, where we do our work, we have so much opportunity to scrub out costs from our system. And we're building that into our plans and we're starting to build the capability. And it's early days, but I can tell you our lean operating system, we all know will help us provide higher value for customers that are lower cost to deliver and we'll look forward to. And it's probably really to just set expectations properly probably early in Q1, 2022, where we'll show you the long-term financial plan and what are the implications then for customers, what are the implications for capital and how does the whole plan come together? And we'll look forward to doing that.
Stephen Byrd:
Great. Thank you so much.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Steven.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. What was the process and analysis that led to the proposal to underground 10,000 miles line? And how did he arrive as 10,000 as the right number?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, well, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, there was a series of observations that I had knew on the ground. The undergrounding might be a better solution set, but it was truly working with our team and seeing what we're doing and viewed that really connected the dots. Our cost to achieve has been reduced dramatically. We've got absolute evidence of in the $2 million a mile real time happening as we speak. And we know that's before we even have a full-scale program. So, we knew that the affordability was real. The 10,000 miles matches up to our highest risk miles. As we look at the high fire threat areas, our total lines that are in those areas. And so, we really wanted to make sure that we were both planning for today's risk and any additional risk that might occur as climate conditions become more extreme. And so that's really what drove the aspiration. And that's what's the building block of the plan. But as I've mentioned, we're going to not set a ceiling if you will. That's really just an aspiration that we'll then engineer and rollout a full-scale plan that people can have better visibility. But we want to do that plan with others. This is a significant benefit to the people of California, and we want to make sure we do it in a way that they feel part of the process, that we have an opportunity to build relationships and trust and involvement from our critical stakeholders, how we embark on this really ambitious goal that people have been asking us to do. Everywhere I go, somebody says, can't you just underground it. And so, I'm so proud of this team for being able to see the potential in something that hasn't been done before and say that, in fact, we can do that here at PG&E.
Ryan Levine:
Thanks. And the August 5 final vote on securitization, will that be non-appealable, assuming that that becomes a favorable decision for the company?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Ryan. Hi. It would actually close out the issue with the CPC. That's the importance of the vote in August 5. There could be judicial review for a limited period of time after that if the intervenor saw to take another step. But again, it puts it's on a good track again, because we continue to aim at end of this year, early next year to execute that securitization.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then the last question, just to clarify, can you confirm that it would have the company issued any shares so far year-to-date, and if the Victim Trust has sold any shares subsequent to the July 7 final agreement on the grant to Victim Trust decision?
Chris Foster:
A sure thing. Ryan, no shares from the company and none from the Fire Victim Trust. In fact, the Fire Victim Trust provided an early July update, public update, where they had indicated they have roughly $5.8 billion cash on hand at this stage and have distributed roughly $430 million, which as you can imagine, puts them in a good cash position to make sure that they're resolving claims for victims.
Ryan Levine:
Appreciate it. Look forward to seeing you next week.
Chris Foster:
Thank you.
Mathew Fallon:
Thanks Ryan.
Operator:
At this time there are no further questions. I'll hand the call back for closing remarks.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks Ashley. Thank you everyone for joining us. We really do look forward to seeing you. And I can't wait for you to see what I'm seeing here every day. And that's an extraordinary team under extraordinary circumstances. We'll see you August 9. Thanks so much.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Greetings, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. I would now like to hand the conference over to Matt Fallon, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Matt Fallon:
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in PG&E's first quarter earnings call. Joining us today are Patti Poppe, our Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Foster, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's first quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures that can be found online, along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2021. Before I turn it over to Patti, I'm excited to announce that we'll be hosting you for our Investor Day on August 9 here in California. Please keep an eye out for the invite. With that, I'll turn it over to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everybody. It's so great to be with you for our first quarter earnings call. We delivered solid Q1 non-GAAP core earnings of $0.23 per share in our first quarter. This morning, we're reaffirming our 2021 non-GAAP core earnings per share guidance of $0.95 to $1.05. We're also maintaining our longer-term 2021 to 2025 non-GAAP core earnings per share CAGR of 10% that we gave on the Q4 call. We're holding our equity guidance range for 2021 at 0 to $400 million. We're taking a conservative approach as we await a final decision on the securitization order from the CPUC and as we continue to make progress on legacy issues. Rest assured, Chris and I are laser-focused on minimizing our 2021 equity needs. We want you to have confidence in our forecast, and we have several more months this year to make progress on the equity range. Chris will describe the financials a bit more in a few minutes. As I finished up my first 100-day listening tour, we've accelerated our move from listening to action. Our priorities fall into 3 categories
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti. As Patti mentioned earlier, we've started the year focused on execution against the goals we set forth in 2021, including on financial and regulatory matters. I plan to cover our Q1 results and then cover regulatory updates. But just to provide a few highlights up front
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. As I said, it is an exciting time here at PG&E. We will meet the challenges that lie ahead, such as ending catastrophic wildfires by demanding excellence of ourselves in our wildfire prevention work, creating culture of performance by building the lean operating system on a regional basis across the enterprise during 2021, and continuing our focus on delivering clean energy to our customers through the latest technologies in battery storage, electric vehicle infrastructure and micro grid solutions. Our financial performance is driven by these 3 focus areas. We can deliver on these objectives and thereby serve our customers and our investors better than ever before. We are on the path to a new era at PG&E, focused on people, planet and prosperity underpinned by performance. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Congrats on all the continued progress of your team. Perhaps at the outset, if I can ask, Chris, maybe, you mentioned keeping the 0 to $400 million of equity range and looking at the aftermarket, can you talk about some of the updated puts and takes as to how you think about potentially needed to access equity here, if you don't mind?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing. Julien, in short, it's -- we kind of have to start with the start, which is the CPUC has not completed yet the final decision on the financing order for our securitization case. So again, we're looking at soon here, that's May 6. Certainly, that's our -- really the first gating item there. And then beyond that, as we mentioned today, we're certainly still working through some legacy legal items. We did update for both Zogg and Kincade, and we are in some ongoing discussions there as well. So from an approach for this quarter, we wanted to be sure to be appropriately conservative as we work our way through some of those issues.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And can you just elaborate a little bit more on what the issues you're working through there? And perhaps, if you can elaborate anything at these expected time lines on resolution there as best you see it, I guess, that it's always quite difficult?
Chris Foster:
Sure, Julien, it's hard to be specific, as you can imagine. We did note in our disclosures today that we are in live conversations is how I would think about it on both the Kincade Fire and the Zogg Fire, Kincade particular, with the -- related to the insurance claims of the subrogated claims as well as public entities. And similarly, on the Zogg Fire with public entities as well as some individual plaintiffs. So obviously, just the complexity of some of the cases, it's hard for me to be specific about timing of resolution, but certainly want to move forward as expeditiously as possible, knowing the impact to victims.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Can you hear me?
Patti Poppe:
Yes, we can hear you, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
So maybe first, just a high-level question. The stock's been relatively weak, and I think it's now trading at less -- more than a 50% discount to the average utility. And so I guess just to somebody who was an outsider kind of coming in and now spent several months getting very in tune with the company in California and just the regulatory structure environment, et cetera, and then also the wildfire risk, just I'd be curious your thoughts on does it make any sense that PG&E would trade more than 50% below the average utility?
Patti Poppe:
Well, Steve, you can imagine I ask myself that question quite routinely. As I've gotten on the ground here and really gotten on solid footing, there's a couple of things that I think about and I observe and actually makes me very helpful. One is the regulatory construct in California was a pleasant surprise. I long heard about the regulatory construct, it's actually very good. We've got multiyear general rate cases, pass-through costs for commodity procurement, decoupling, separate cost of capital proceedings. It's a good construct that provides for reliable outcomes. The State of California recognizes and obviously sees and is experiencing the risk of wildfire. The state and we at PG&E as well as all of the IOUs have learned a lot about wildfire mitigation. I have a little saying associated with our lean operating system that says you can't fix what you don't know about. And we know a lot about what we're doing now under these conditions. And the state has stepped up, the commitment to increase, the equipment increased, fire and forest health, fire prevention increased, fire crews, I think the CAL FIRE and all of our firefighters across the state have demonstrated their incredible capacity and their improvement and everything they've done to fight wildfires. So it really comes down to the question I ask myself about us here at PG&E, can we, in fact, perform? And I wouldn't be here, Steve, if I didn't believe that we can. And this lean operating system that we talk about all the time is because we talk about it all the time because it is how we will create this culture of performance. It is what we've deployed against our wildfire mitigation plan for this year. We're seeing results of it right now as we speak. And so I just have to tell you, I think that a lot of companies have a lot of different kind of risks, and you can't fix what you don't know about. We know about this risk. We've gotten incredibly sophisticated about dealing with this risk. And we've got the team for the time to deliver on this risk. And so I'm a believer. And I guess I'd just say that. If I believe, I think there's a lot of reasons for other people to believe in PCG.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. That's helpful. Just on your comment on the Sonoma District Attorney filing on Kincade Fire, just have they given you any rationale for the criminal charges there? What is the basis?
Patti Poppe:
Well, they've certainly outlined what the charges are. And so the basis for the charges are somewhat implied. I would say this, Sonoma County District Attorney has a constituency. She's elected. She has a job to do. We disagree with those charges. We don't think there's a criminal basis for those charges. We will fight those charges. And again, the whole thing comes back to the same -- every rock, I find, Steve, everything I learn, every time I see an opportunity, it's the same answer. The same answer is improve our performance, implement our wildfire mitigation plan, prevent these disasters from happening in the future, be a company that can be relied upon to deliver and prevent incidents. And that's what we are doing, and that is the exclusive focus for myself and my team is on making sure that we create that culture of performance and that we make it safe here in California and catastrophic wildfires caused by our equipment.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And one last question. Just any update on the status of this grantor trust election and then just any update on intentions of the Fire Victims Trust with their stake in the company?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Steve, it's Chris. I'll take that. I think it's -- we're on a good path is the short answer. At this stage, we do have the private letter ruling that's positive from the IRS. We have good alignment in terms of shared benefit for both the Fire Victims Trust and the company toward completing this work. And just yesterday, we had approval in the bankruptcy court for the motion that came forward for our share exchange. So that was a good data point literally [ph] from yesterday. Going forward, I think there's probably a couple of gates to think about in considerations. The first would be that was mentioned yesterday in court that there's a California entity where there need to be approval, which is, I believe, in the third week of May for the approach, then we'll be working on finalizing some of the definitive documents that we're pursuing. And so ultimately, I think at this stage, we continue to be on a good path and largely you're kind of looking at that May time frame to ideally be able to position to elect.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And just to clarify that, the exchange of stock with you does not require the trust to sell stock to the market, that's just an exchange with you?
Chris Foster:
Thank you for that question because I think there's been a little bit of confusion around it. That is correct. It is -- you can almost think about it as an instantaneous exchange -- so with the company. So it's not -- actually does not create a mandate to sell.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
I guess, I wanted to start off around the increased drought risk since the Wildfire Mitigation Plan was submitted. In light of some of the recent developments, is there any opportunities to amend or derisk the wildfire risk in the upcoming season in light of some of the changing weather conditions within your service territory.
Patti Poppe:
One of the things -- Ryan, nice to hear your voice. We -- one of the things that we're doing is we're drilling earlier. We have this excellent partnership with our community safety organizations, our firefighters, and we are drilling -- doing those drills in preparation for the wildfire season earlier given the drought conditions. And so we're going to be doing south and central in May, and we'll do the drills in the north in July. That's an important part of getting ready for and being aligned and coordinated. During an emergency response, that coordination is incredibly important and delivers better outcomes. So I'd say that's one thing that we're doing. But more than everything -- anything, we're executing to our plan, and much of our plan is scheduled to be in place. Early by September 1, some of our work will be complete, but a lot -- we're doing work every single day. So we're derisking the system every single day with our hardening efforts and our equipment upgrades. And so we're just -- we're absolutely zeroed in.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then in terms of the $900 million wildfire insurance cost that I think Chris had highlighted that you had purchased, can you provide a little color as to why you made that election earlier this year? And what the pricing and terms were to the extent you're able to comment for that insurance purchase?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing. Ryan, the way I would think about this is we were just looking at the situation where in previous years, our policy ran from July 31 -- excuse me, from August 1 until July 31 of any given year. And the thinking was if we were able to move that just strategically earlier in the year, we give ourselves some space from the start of the traditional fire season. And so what we saw, as a result, if you look at it year-over-year, we have an increased amount of insurance from about $868 million up to $900 million for this year. We have greater policy coverage in and of itself in terms of the elements of the policy that we have are improved, and we were able to achieve this increase at a lower cost relative to last year's coverage. So we think it was -- the team did a lot of work there to make sure we're in a good position for this fire season. So again, it gets us to $900 million for this year.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. Appreciate it. And what about in terms of pricing on the $900 million?
Chris Foster:
Sure. We've got a good -- sure, exactly. We're looking at pricing there where we break out because it's in multiple policy towers, Ryan. One is a multiyear tower, that's about $600 million that runs for multiple years. And then we have a breakout specifically for the incremental above that, that gets us to $900 million for this year. And we're happy to follow up on any of the specific tower details for you, if you'd like to. We have provided today additional disclosure within our 10-Q that I would point you to as well. It's a little bit more detail than we've done in the past to try to give you help there.
Ryan Levine:
Okay, great. And then maybe just one clarifying question around the equity issuance plan. Is there any -- outside of the highlighted, the securitization proceedings and the legacy claims, is there any changes in working capital that we should keep in mind, given the pace of COVID or exit from COVID?
Chris Foster:
I appreciate that question. Ryan, as I think about other factors, just kind of more broadly speaking in terms of cash, it's not really -- there's no real working capital shifts here. Certainly, a meaningful effort that we're undertaking right now is the execution of the sale of our San Francisco headquarters. So certainly, that's a cash impacting item, both from a timing standpoint and a magnitude. And the team is underway now with the broker and is -- we'll be moving forward. So at this stage, again, just kind of working through those details. Hard to be more specific on that, given we're currently evaluating bids, but excited to get that moving forward as well.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just one quick one for Chris first, and I have a broader question. Chris, on the -- could you just explain the recent change in the timing of when you would recognize the loss that you had previously expected to be more upfront? I thought that you were expecting the grantor trust election when you updated last quarter. So I'm just trying to figure out what changed in the timing there?
Chris Foster:
Absolutely. Jonathan, what I would start with, I have to say just kind of framing this, if you take a step back, we've been appreciative of the pace with which the CPUC has moved on our securitization cases. And explicitly, as you can see in the decision, there's a recognition of the benefits to customers, to the Fire Victims Trust and it's aligned with the goals as I stated there for both SB 901 and AB 1054 in terms of improving the company's business risk profile. So I think that, that's important just to be aware of in the back. So as we reevaluated and updated our accounting, we wanted to be sure to give you the clearest picture possible of the net impacts across both the grantor trust treatment as well as the securitization outcome. And so we would expect to record that $150 million pickup for the year, following a final nonappealable decision. Then we'd anticipate that the timing of the shareholder-funded charge we previously guided to will largely coincide with the sale of shares by the Fire Victims Trust over future periods. So it's really -- for us, this is really about a change in timing for the expense itself that we're reflecting and updating today to the positive.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just the timing of how you're going to recognize it as opposed to when the cash flows may or may not occur?
Chris Foster:
That's correct. That's right.
Jonathan Arnold:
I'll leave a feedback there. And then just on -- you've obviously mentioned you're going to host this Analyst Day in August, could we get maybe a little sense of what you'll be hoping to accomplish there and what to be expecting?
Patti Poppe:
Well, first of all, we can't wait to have everybody here with us in California safely, of course. It all hinges on status of COVID, but we feel good that it's -- absolutely, we want everybody to hold the date and make your plans. We look forward to first introducing you to the team, demonstrating our wildfire mitigation planning in action, gets you up close and personal with the incredible technical talent that we have here at the company that I can't wait for you to meet that gives me the confidence that I think will give you the confidence as well. And then also more broadly, talking about our commitment to a culture of performance and talk about our clean energy plan. This is -- it's an exciting part of the PG&E story that certainly is underreported right now. And I understand that, but we can't wait to give that some daylight and help people get exposed to and excited about the future that PG&E has here serving the people of California. So no substitute for face-to-face. Can't wait to see you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Byrd:
A lot has been covered. I wanted to just talk about the CPUC and their assessment of the, I guess, the long-term future of natural gas. And just curious sort of your thoughts, and dialogue with the CPUC, anything you would highlight there?
Patti Poppe:
I know it's a question on people's minds. I do think that in all the clean energy scenarios, certainly in the near term, say, the next decade, next 15 years, there's a need for natural gas as continued bridge fuel. And from an LDC perspective, our customers still want natural gas. And we're going to have to figure out how to make sure that we minimize our methane emissions through our good practices. And every time we change -- upgrade a service or change the main, we're reducing our fugitive emissions. We feel great about that. There's more to be done, though, to really think about what's the long-term role of natural gas here in California specifically. And so we're in the process of doing some strategic planning where we're asking ourselves all those questions. And when the time is right, we'll talk more about that publicly.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
I think I have probably one for Patti, and one or two for Chris. Patti, when we look at your CapEx spend, so if I come back and look at your slides that you have, and your very progressive goal to eliminate all utility-caused wildfires, if I look at the gray bars on Slide 11, are those funds that you need to spend to be able to hit those goals? And were those funds, meaning the embedded in the gray bar, things you wouldn't actually spend if you didn't get state regulatory approval, but it would put that goal of eliminating utility-caused wildfires at risk?
Patti Poppe:
Well, I'd say there's 2 things that help us mitigate utility-caused ignition risk. One is our hardening of our system. And so obviously, the investments that we're making there are very important, and we have a widely alignment with the CPUC and the Wildfire Safety Division. In fact, the Safety Division Director spent 3 days with us just a week ago, actually out in the field, observing our mitigation efforts and what we're doing to harden the system and the enhanced vegetation management efforts that we're taking. And so I would say we broadly have alignment on investments necessary to do our work. But we also mitigate risk and prevent ignition and specifically on catastrophic wildfire through our PSPS program. And so that's another important complement, too. And we try and represent this notion that -- in the near term, PSPS is our backstop, and it needs to be an important measure that we take to protect people's safety and prevent fires of consequence. But over time, our hardening investments, as you've described, will help to mitigate the actual source of the ignition in the first place. And so I'm getting pretty excited about what we're learning about how to make that happen through new technologies as well as just some of the fundamentals of undergrounding the right portions of the grid, doing these remote grids where necessary, conductor, hardening as well as all the other equipment that we're learning about and utilizing. Some of it quite traditional, some of it new and exciting. So that capital plan really does a major part of what we need to do to mitigate wildfire hazards.
Michael Lapides:
But if you didn't get approval for those gray bars in this upcoming case or in some of the memo accounts, would you spend it anyway because it is the thing that need to happen on the system to eliminate wildfire risk?
Chris Foster:
Michael, it's Chris. I'll go ahead and just maybe build on that as well. The advantage that we have in the state is really now we have annually filed wildfire mitigation plan. So in essence, it provides -- it's really good transparency into year-over-year how we're adjusting the plan, how our risk model allows us to evolve our work. And it allows for greater alignment that Patti is alluding to. And so as you see there in those gray bars, we're trying to do our best to give that level of transparency. At the same time, we have a full expectation of recoveries of the work that directly tracks with what we filed in the plan previously. So there's a little bit of a regulatory lag in terms of the cost recovery. But ultimately, the good news is here, it doesn't experience the regulatory lag of a general rate case-oriented request because, again, annually, we're putting forward a wildfire mitigation plan, committing to the work that we're going to do. As long as we follow through on that, we have a good level of confidence of the recovery of those items in the gray. Additionally, we have -- we're aiming at end of June filing on our 2023 general rate case. And you can imagine, that's a bit of a catch-up opportunity there to give better line of sight to a multiyear investment prioritization there as well. So from both angles, it's actually a really good transparent process with the CPUC. And for us, it's really just about executing the work we commit to.
Michael Lapides:
Right. One follow-up, Chris, in your prepared remarks about the securitization and the timing, and you made the comment of end of year or beginning of '22 for the actual issuance. But then you followed that with a brief remark about assuming all appeals or litigation at risk. If litigation delayed the issuance, how does that impact, a couple of things, how does that impact when you make your $1 billion payment to the wildfire victims trust fund? And how does that impact your kind of earnings guidance, which assumes you'd be paying down a lot of debt that you're actually not recovering in the customer bill?
Chris Foster:
Sure. Again, it's a bit of a scenario, but I hear where it's coming from. I think ultimately, what we're trying to do our best to do is provide the understanding that in the situation where there is an application for rehearing that would move forward or something of that sort that, we still envision a situation where we're prepared to execute this year. I did mention 2022 because the other factor that's in there, Michael, is just the market. And so at this size of the offering, we want to make sure to give ourselves the flexibility on the $7.5 billion. If we need to evaluate doing multiple tranches, there's a scenario where it could move -- a portion of it could move into 2022. So really, that's just our way of expressing. In one sense that there's a delay -- it would delay the final payment to the Fire Victims Trust. It could delay the initial contribution. But again, still looking at a situation where we'll execute this year.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
I guess, if you fight the criminal charges in the courts, are you -- are we talking about months? Are we talking about years before you would potentially get a resolution out of the court on those matters?
Patti Poppe:
First of all, it's hard to say. And there's a lot of contributing factors to that. It could be months, it could also be up to potentially 2 years. So I would just say there's a range and a lot of factors that will go into that.
Paul Fremont:
And then I mean, is it fair to say that if there are criminal charges that would potentially come out of Zogg that we wouldn't know either way until roughly a year from now, just given the time line of when they acted on Kincade?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. It's really -- I guess, I would say that those things would be linked. If, in fact, there were criminal charges, we wouldn't -- if any of those stuck, we wouldn't know what the outcome of that would be until that happens. But again, let me just reiterate that we don't agree with these charges. And we definitely are going to fight them because that we just don't agree. And so that's really what our focus is right now.
Paul Fremont:
Right. No, I'm just trying to figure out because I would think that the criminal charges would weaken your ability to recover under 1054, is -- that's a fair assessment? If -- I mean, if the criminal charges were upheld?
Chris Foster:
Paul, I think AB 1054 doesn't contemplate criminality in that way, just to be clear. If you think about -- you are accurate with the time frame, the time passage you mentioned there between any theoretical potential criminal charges that relate to the Zogg Fire is a similar kind of time frame. So it is accurate to think about the timing that way, but AB 1054 does not contemplate criminality in that way to the negative.
Paul Fremont:
Well, but it does basically set a negligent standard, right? So one could argue if you're found criminally liable that it would be more difficult for you to pass sort of that negligent standard, right?
Chris Foster:
There's 2 tests. The first is at the CPUC in terms of cost recovery, which is essentially a substantial doubt construct that came about with AB 1054, which is similar to the existing kind of FERC-oriented language. And then the second gate, I think, is what you're pointing to, which is actually about replenishment of the wildfire fund. And so we're not necessarily in that scenario right now. That's the question of willful disregard, which is what I think most people try to mix in that question of criminality. So they're actually 2 separate things, Paul.
Patti Poppe:
And Paul, just to close this out. Just to be clear, just -- we can't speculate about all these conditions, but the most important thing to remember is we don't agree. We don't agree with the charges. And so we're going to fight that.
Paul Fremont:
Great. And maybe the last question for me on Zogg. I guess I've seen different accounts with respect to whether the tree that was involved was marked for removal or not? Is there any further clarification that you might be able to give on that tree?
Patti Poppe:
Yes. There's no new information to share on that, Paul.
Operator:
That concludes all questions for today. I'd like to turn the call back over to Patti Poppe for closing remarks.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, April. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Our future becomes significantly derisked as we deliver day in and day out. This is a long game, and we're in it to win it by serving our customers and our investors. We really do look forward to having you safely with us in California on August 9, for our Investor Day at our Wildfire Command Center. I want you to see the team that is in action and learn what I know. We are entering a new era at PG&E, grounded in our Triple Bottom Line that is underpinned by our performance. We will see you soon. And in the meantime, stay safe and be well.
Operator:
That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Release and Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to, Matt Fallon, Senior Director, Investor Relations, PG&E. Mr. Fallon, please go ahead.
Matt Fallon:
Good morning. Thank you for participating in PG&E's fourth quarter 2020 earnings conference call. Joining us today are Patti Poppe, our Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Foster, Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer. I want to remind you that our discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to Management. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's fourth quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures and can be found online along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020. With that, let's move on to the person you all want to hear from, Patti Poppe.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Matt. And good morning, everyone. I am so delighted to be with you for my very first PG&E earnings call today. I've been here almost two months, and have learned a lot by engaging with my coworkers, and many external stakeholders. All highlights today, our 2020 results, our 2021 and long-term outlook and what I've learned so far from careful listening, and importantly, what we're doing about it right now. We delivered solid Q4 non-GAAP core earnings of $0.21 per share in the fourth quarter, and $1.61 for the full year. We're affirming non-GAAP core earnings of $0.95 to $1.05 per fully diluted share for 2021. In addition, we're rolling forward our five-year plan, which takes us through 2025. I'm happy to report that we successfully executed the sale of our transmission tower wireless licenses, delivering on our goal to reduce our 2021 equity needs. Our 2021 equity needs are now down to a range of zero to $400 million. We have visibility on our investments and we're increasing the quality of the plan and our guidance. Today, we're introducing a 2021 to 2025, non-GAAP core EPS CAGR of 10%. As we bring our new leadership team into place, we're building a clear sky playbook based on a lean operating system and delivering a regionalized hometown experience. We're evaluating our work plan focused on what's best longer-term for our customers. We're already acting on all of this and we're happy to share more with you today. You'll hear more about this in future quarters as well. Chris will provide an update and more details on the financials in just a minute. First, a recap of 2020, it was a challenging year, and I am so impressed with how our PG&E team stepped up. I'd like to take a second just to thank Bill Smith for serving as our interim CEO, and Michael Lewis for his tireless efforts serving as Interim Utility President. My co-workers made great progress on many fronts under their leadership, and I'll quickly touch on a few. The team continued to make progress on wildfire risk reduction, while also significantly improving the execution of our public safety power shutoff events through better coordination, and support for our customers and our communities. My co-workers successfully resolved key regulatory cases. And while no one could have predicted the impact of COVID-19, the team has stood up for the challenge delivering energy to our friends, families, and neighbors. I spent a good portion of my first weeks listening, listening to you listening to our customers, policymakers, regulators, co-workers, shareholders, and many, many more. What you've said is direct and you've communicated both disappointment and encouragement. Thank you for your honest feedback. I've also spent time engaging with our federal monitor and our operational observer from the governor's office. We want what they want, a safer system. We've embraced their feedback and have continued to implement improvements to our wildfire mitigation work with an unwavering focus to reduce the risk of utility ignited wildfires. One such example includes our evolution from a 2020 Wildfire Mitigation Plan that was primarily activity based, focused on miles completed for our key wildfire safe measure, such as enhanced vegetation management and system hardening. We're moving to a 2021 Wildfire Mitigation Plan that is risk focused, addressing the highest risk areas for mitigation on our top most priority, informed by enhanced predictive wildfire risk models. We've developed and implemented machine learning capabilities, enabling an evolution from static to dynamic risk models. These models are informed by fire ignition probability and potential wildfire consequence, considering fast burning fuels, predictive fire behavior, and buildings and population density impacts. Additionally, we're leveraging state-of-the-art remote sensing capabilities to obtain an understanding of both the fuel type and condition that contribute to a fire spread in our high-risk areas. While we continue to perform the longer-term work of enhanced vegetation management and system hardening using a risk informed approach, our PSPS event implementation remains an important tool of last resort to keep our customers safe. We'll continue to focus on improving the PSPS program for our customers and our communities, keeping in mind that preventing electric equipment caused wildfires and associated damage is the highest priority. For 2020, I'm happy to share that our enhanced weather forecasting, our generation islanding capabilities, and sectionalizing devices, many of which were installed in 2020 led to more targeted PSPS events in 2020 versus 2019 for similar weather conditions. We identified a number of reported damages and hazards to our equipment from high wind conditions during six PSPSP events in 2020. Any one of these instances could have potentially caused a wildfire if our system had not been proactively de-energized. In addition, our weather stations along with our high-definition cameras and satellite detection capabilities enable us to determine when high fire risk has dissipated. And when we can begin safely restoring power. These factors along with our increased aerial surveillance helped us reduce patrol and restoration times by nearly 40% in 2020. We were also able to improve our notification accuracy for impacted customers in advance of the PSPS events from levels below 90% in 2019 to 99.5% in 2020. This was enabled through the deployment of an innovative records and information management integration platform where we are partnering with Palantir to quickly and seamlessly consolidate data for our electric assets and customers from separate and disparate data sets. This has been a game changer for us and we're expanding this technology solution to serve as the core enabling technology for building our centralized data systems, bringing together physical, operational, lifecycle and environmental data elements to drive data informed decisions for our wildfire mitigation programs and beyond. The substantial improvements in 2020 over 2019 in our PSPS event implementation were noticed by many, and yet, we are still dissatisfied. And we've already begun implementing improvements for our 2021 Wildfire Mitigation and PSPS programs. In fact, during my first few weeks on the job, I had the opportunity to see the team in action during a very unusual January PSPS event. The team quickly sprang into action, enabling a cross functional focus on an end-to-end process. I saw our emergency response playbook in action, and it was good. The strong gusty winds we forecasted and our assessment of the dry fuels and potential fire spread risk in localized areas of our service territory, led us to shut off power to keep our customers safe, while the dangerous weather passed. Let me be clear about this point. The goal is to prevent damage and destruction from our equipment. And we'll choose to protect our customers and our communities even when that means utilizing PSPS. I was impressed that we have the technology to pinpoint our highest risk areas and target the specific sections of our system to prevent potential wildfires that would hurt people. Now moving into 2021, we will embrace the triple bottom line mindset of serving people, our planet and California's prosperity. This mindset will find an intersection between the need to safely deliver energy and meet the clean energy aspirations of Californians. I'm optimistic that there is a bright path forward with a triple bottom line enabled by a laser like focus on performance. Here are my initial observations and priorities to get us moving as we start 2021. We have a best-in-class emergency response playbook. And we're going to complement that by writing the PG&E clear sky playbook. So, we can predictably deliver every day, not just during and after a crisis. I'm putting together a team of senior leaders that's developing that clear sky playbook underpinned by a lean operating system that predictably delivers on our commitments and outcomes. We're bringing the best of a functional organizational design, standard, processes and scale to deliver a regionalized hometown experience for the communities and customers we serve. And finally, our system requires substantial capital investment and our customers deserve more discipline cost performance. We'll adopt better processes that improve our safety, quality, delivery and cost. Our work will deliver for customers and our investors. On my first day at PG&E, I went to Paradise in Butte County, to see the devastation caused from wildfires. I met with my co-workers who live in the community whose own lives were forever impacted by the Camp Fire. We're so grateful to those who have the strength and the courage to represent PG&E through the rebuilding efforts. When I reflect on when PG&E first developed our skills in disaster response, I go back to San Bruno. I visited the city of San Bruno a couple weeks ago, and I met with our co-workers who served their community there. They express the disappointment they felt that day and the helplessness of not being the heroes for the very first time. It was frustrating not being able to deliver as our Bluecrew strives to do delivering an essential service safely to our customers every day. PG&E has learned to respond to the challenges of emergencies and have developed a world class playbook for emergency response. My passion is to capture that capability and focus to establish a clear sky playbook. Playbook to deliver disaster prevention, the basics of the building blocks for a safe, reliable, affordable, clean and resilient system. [Indiscernible] before processes that cause delays and leave our frontline teams having to explain to customers why we can't deliver as promised, our daily performance is sometimes a mystery to the organization. We learn about issues when the customer tenaciously escalates their frustrations and then we jump to respond. We must enable our co-workers in the field to become problem preventers and solvers, not victims of poor processes. Improving the reliability of our day-to-day work will move us away from being just an emergency response company we need and we'll implement a clear sky lean operating system to effectuate this change, because it works. We're assembling the team to do just that. Adam Wright is our new Chief Operating Officer. Adam joins PG&E after serving for 18 years at Berkshire Hathaway and for the past three years as President and CEO of MidAmerican Energy. Adam brings a strong track record of operational performance at Mid-American and he'll focus on safety, standardizing practices and promoting excellent execution across the board. Adam's hand on approach has already started to show its value. I love how he leads with his heart and his mind. We need that. Marlene Santos is our new Chief Customer Officer. Marlene joins us after an impressive career at NextEra Energy, most recently serving as President of Gulf Power. Marlene led the integration effort of the acquisition of Gulf Power, and she was able to deploy a best-in-class operating system to a new organization which delivered meaningful results for the customers of Gulf Power. We're counting on Marlene to help us do the same here at PG&E. Julius Cox is our Chief Human Resources Officer and leader of our Shared Services and Supply Chain, a team charged with ensuring PG&E has the people, skills, resources and tools to meet customers' expectation. Prior to joining PG&E, Julius served as Chief Human Resource Officer AEP and Chief Transformation Officer at Dynegy. Joe Foreline, is our new SVP of Gas Operations. Joe joins PG&E after 35 years at PSEG, serving most recently as Vice President of Gas Operations and prior to that as Vice President of Customer Solutions. We're really excited for Joe to leverage his experience to enhance our focus on both gas operations and customer service. This team is coming for the mission and more are on their way. They all had great jobs and they were not looking to leave. I call them each and they answered the call to serve. These clear eyes and fresh legs, combined with the 25000 dedicated, resilient and smart PG&Eneers that I found here, will be the necessary ingredients to turn this company into a winning team. We're focusing on meeting and exceeding the expectations of those we are privileged to serve, our friends, our families and our neighbors. The new team will establish a regionalized daily heartbeat, that puts decision making where it belongs, closest to our customers and communities. I visited crews in many areas across our service area and the themes are clear, we're showing up in our home towns like a big company with a big company bureaucracy, and that needs to change. There are advantages to the scale of a big company, and we'll leverage them to the best of functional expertise, high quality standards, and that will be delivered by our regional cross-functional teams. Our customers don't need to feel that big company mindset, they need to feel like their hometown is the only one that matters. Our hometown team can deliver for them by being empowered to solve the problems they see with the cross-functional team on which they work. Our clear sky lean playbook will be essential in transforming our culture, our processes and our outcomes. Now, you might ask Patti, that all sounds great, but how will that deliver financial results? Well, this brings me to my final observation. We can accelerate the path to better financial health at PG&E by fixing the operational results we deliver. Our regulators, our legislators, our customers, my co-workers, and, yes, you, our investors can believe in PG&E again. Everyone can believe when we deliver, when we keep our promises, when we do what we say, we will do. There's a playbook for a great utility and we'll be writing ours here at PG&E. More to come. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Patti, and good morning, everyone. As Patti mentioned earlier, we made substantial progress against the goals we set forth in 2020, including on the financial and regulatory front. I'll hit a few highlights, then go into more detail. We met our EPS guidance planning at $1.61 for the year. We reduced our equity needs to a range of zero to $400 million, reducing our prior range of $450 million to $750 million as a result of our successful non-core asset sale. We also made progress on our longer-term savings goal, including achieving over $300 million in savings from a combination of contracted work savings and from monetizing excess renewable energy credits in 2020. And we closed our critical regulatory cases that provide multi-year financial clarity. I plan to cover our 2020 results and regulatory updates first, then focus on 2021 and beyond. I'll walk through new term targets and favorable updates to our 2021 financing needs as well as our longer-term financial plan. And we see improvements in our prior projection, getting us to a 10% earnings per share growth CAGR. As I mentioned, we met our earnings guidance for 2020 and are maintaining the 2021 range we set out of $0.95 to a $1.05. Let's start with 2020. Slide 9 shows our result for both the fourth quarter and the year. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the year came in at $2 billion. GAAP earnings including non-core items are also shown here. The non-core items listed here are also consistent with the full year 2020 guidance range and includes a $60 million net charge in the fourth quarter is all related wildfire cost, after applying insurance receivables. Moving to Slide 10. This shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for non-GAAP core earnings of $441 million or $0.21 in the fourth quarter of last year. The largest driver of the quarter-over-quarter change was an increase in shares outstanding from our July 1st equity raise. Additionally, we saw decrease in EPS resulting from unrecoverable interest expense, the timing of nuclear refilling outages, inspection cost and some small miscellaneous items. The decreases were partially offset by growth array-based earnings and the impact of charge recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 related to interest on pre-petition payables and short-term debt and the timing of the 2020 general rate case cost recovery. I will now shift to covering a few significant updates on the regulatory front, specifically 2020 for the progress we saw help cement our multi-year earnings per share growth visibility. I'll start with FERC. In December, FERC approved our transition owner 2020 settlement, establishing formula rate, a dollar return equity of 10.45% and a capital structure that's 49.75% equity through 2023. FERC also completed the review of our AFEDC waiver filing, allowing us to apply the 49.75% equity ratio on AFEDC back to May of 2019. At the CPUC, there are number of proceedings in play, including our Wildfire Mitigation Plan filing that Patti covered. I'll focus now on four additional key filings. Our 2020 general rate case, two securitization cases and our upcoming 2023 general rate case filing. As a reminder, our 2020 GRC received a final decision in December. The revenue requirement approved in our 2020 GRC mirrors the amount from our initial settlement agreement. Importantly, the final decision authorizes two-way balancing accounts for vegetation management, wildfire mitigation and liability insurance premium cost. We will implement new rates as authorized in the final decision starting next month. In the rate neutral securitization proceeding, we filed an alternative in mid-January that recognize concerns raised during the proceeding. This alternative is consistent with our goals of ensuring we can accelerate payments to the Fire Victims Trust, meeting our commitment to pursuing a transaction structure that is expected to be rate neutral and maintaining our credit treatment so this cost-efficient transaction can be effectuated with maximum benefit of the utility and its customers. In alternative filing, instead of contributing $1.8 billion in 2021 to the customer credit trust, we proposed to contribute $1 billion in 2021 and $1 billion in 2024. Additionally, we proposed that the CPUC could conduct proceeding in 2040 to determine whether an additional shareholder funded contribution is needed to keep the structure rate neutral. Any additional contribution will be capped at $775 million. We are confident based on our modeling that the risk of this additional one-time payment 20 years from now has a low probability of occurring. The proceeding is currently scheduled for proposed decision in April and a commission decision in May. Yesterday, we also filed our first AB 1054 related securitization request at the CPUC. This is the first tranche of what it's likely to be free and totals roughly $1.2 billion. This reflects the work we've completed thus far and it forecasts the expenditures for 2021, relative to the total $3.2 billion of qualified spend. We expect to receive a decision on the financing application in late June, and that could bring us to market as early as Q3. Finally, we're scheduled to file our 2023 general rate case by the end of June. This case will be different from previous general rate cases for two reasons. First, we will incorporate not just selective distribution but also gas transmission and storage which was previously a separate case. Second, this case will cover four years, 2023 through 2026 rather than three years providing certainty over longer horizon. Our substantial investments to reduce risk of wildfires and enhance public safety will continued to be highlight in this case. Moving forward to 2021 guidance on Slide 11. We have adjusted non-GAAP core earnings to $2.1 billion to $2.25 billion from $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion for the year and maintain our prior EPS guidance of approximately $0.95 to $1.05 per share. This non-GAAP core earnings target is $300 million to $425 million below our authorized level with a range mostly comprised of interest expense of $300 million to $325 million. We anticipate net below the line and spend above authorized will be substantially lower than 2020 as we carry out additional efficiency measures in 2021, bringing a range of zero to $100 million there. Also noted here is the assumption underlying 2021 guidance that we received authorization the second quarter for our securitization request. It is designed to be rate neutral to customers as originally filed. Moving to non-core earnings guidance which is broken out on the same slide. We've made a couple of adjustments to these items. Our range for bankruptcy and legal costs guidance increased to a range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This reflects two items. First, based on current discussions with the Fire Victims Trust and input from the IRS, we expect to elect grantor trust treatment for the shares issued to the Fire Victim Trust. Grantor trust treatment would result in a deduction equal to the fair value of the shares held by the Fire Victim Trust when ultimately sold by the trust, instead of when the shares were placed into the trust. Accordingly, there would be a $1.3 billion charge when the grantor trust election is made reflecting the elimination of the existing deferred tax asset and then income recognized over time as the Fire Victim Trust sell their shares in future periods. Similarly, we would anticipate gains in future periods as shares are sold by the trust. Given we have until April to complete this review, should we elect the grantor trust treatment, it would result in a charge in that scenario in Q1. The second element of bankruptcy and legal costs to note is exit financing costs reflecting temporary utility debt that increased from $60 million pretax to a range of $95 million to $135 million. This reflects our updated assumption of rate neutral securitizations starting in the second quarter, and assumes two tranches. We also anticipate a range of $10 million to $20 million in legal and other costs related to the 2019 Kincade Fire that are recorded in the period incurred and separate from the claim's accrual. Additionally, for investigation remedies, we have lowered our forecast to roughly $110 million. This $30 million decrease is permanent. And we will apply it towards the wildfire OII spend requirement. Our full year guidance for the net securitization inception charge, amortization of the wildfire fund contribution and prior period net regulatory recoveries remain unchanged. Next, I'll cover our updated 2021 equity needs. As you can see on Slide 11, we've updated the range to reflect equity needs of zero to $400 million for the year. This substantial reduction reflects the cash impact in 2021 of our non-core license transaction that was announced earlier this month. I'm also pleased to share that we close the transaction as well and have received the vast majority of the initial proceeds. This lower equity range benefits our shareholders, including the fire victim trust and reducing dilution. As Patti touched on, we have updated our five-year plan as well with projections from 2021 through 2025 that you can see on Slide 12 through 14. Here we are showing incremental positive updates. Our non-GAAP core earnings growth is driven by 8.5% rate base growth. This is underpinned by focusing on the key investments that reduce risk and improve service to our customers, primarily in our wildfire mitigation and gas system needs. We also continue to be focused on holding company debt reduction to improve our balance sheet off over time. We anticipate paying down over $2 billion over the next three years and further reducing the holding company debt balance down to approximately $1 billion in 2025. Together these factors fuel our non-GAAP core earnings growth of over 10% and we are guiding to 10% non-GAAP core EPS growth. This includes an assumption of some equity needs following 2021, which stem from increases in our capital spend, and would follow our capital structure. We plan to provide more specifics on equity needs for each year when we issue our annual four-year guidance. As a team, we are determined to execute well on both the operational and financial plans we set out that benefit all elements of the triple bottom line and drive prosperity for our state and investors. With that, I'll turn it back over to Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you, Chris. The path to reestablish PG&E is simple, the implementation is our challenge, will meet the challenge and here's how. We have a best-in-class emergency response playbook and we'll build on it by writing the PG&E clear sky playbook. I'm putting together a team of senior leaders that are ready writing and implementing that lean playbook that can predictably deliver our commitments and our outcomes. We're building the best of centralized functions, standards, processes and scale and we'll deliver a regionalized hometown experience for the communities and customers we serve. And finally, our system requires substantial capital investment, and our customers deserve more discipline cost performance. We'll adopt better processes that improve our safety, quality, delivery and cost. As a result, our work will deliver for our customers and for our investors. These initial priorities are the steps on the path to a new era at PG&E, focused on people, planet, and prosperity with laser like focus on performance. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator instructions] Richard Ciciarelli with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning. It's Julien here. Thanks for the time and opportunity. And I should add...
Patti Poppe:
Hey Julien, nice to hear your voice.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Likewise, I should have my congratulations to you, Patti, as well as the portion of the management team here. It's a pleasure, congrats, all. But with this, can we speak a little bit more about equity and ability to reduce them that further? So, a couple different questions within this. Securitization, can you speak to what's reflected in your updated expectations here? And then secondly, just want to be very explicit about the asset sales here and that contributing to your narrowed range here as well, if you don't mind.
Chris Foster:
Sure, Julien this is Chris. Hi. Happy to take that one. I think there's really two factors to think about. First, let's start with the underlying assumption. Embedded within the zero to $400 million guidance is the as filed original case that we put forward to the CPUC. Should the alternative we filed be approved, it could further reduce that equity need, which would take us down potentially is that low into the range, again, zero to $400 million. That's because we have spaced out the two contributions, a billion dollars in 2021 and a billion dollars in 2024. As it relates to the Tower's transaction, that definitely helped us to bring down the original high end of $700 million - excuse me, $750 million, to where we are today at $400 million. We consistently articulated as you know upon completion of that transaction, we will be focused on reducing our financing needs overall. And it certainly heavily contributed to our equity needs reduction.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And then secondly, Patti if I can put it back to you here. Obviously, short time here thus far, but the safety certification process, I suppose this is going to be an annual conversation here. But when we think about this, going forward, and just getting these on a timely basis, how do you think about improving that process to just give folks and all stakeholders visibility on that, if you don't mind?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah, this is actually an area Julien that I'm pretty excited about. And I feel good about our ability to build a transparent system. So, anybody and anyone who wants to can be aware of the status of our wildfire mitigation plans, it's a perfect application of our clear sky playbook is to prepare and prevent disaster. And so, we're actually leveraging our lean playbook, we've got four basic plays, and we're going to apply them to our wildfire mitigation plan. We're actually in the process, we've already initiated building out a control center at our San Ramon facility, where we'll be able to observe the progress, monitor problem, solve, establish standards, continuously improve. I am finding, we've got some incredibly talented people here, they just need a process, we need a system to make visible our commitments. And that enables us to make and meet our commitments. And so, the work that we're going to do, I think, will give the commission the visibility that they need. We welcome their partnership. We welcome their oversight, the policymakers have a lot at stake with our success. And they've shared that with me. And so, our job is to make it easy for them to regulate us, easy for them to monitor us. Because I can tell you this, no one's going to be looking closer at us than us. And so, we're going to be watching our performance. And we're going to be utilizing our clear sky playbook to do just that. And that should make those filings and that process much more streamlined, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. I'll leave it there. Thank you, guys. Best of luck.
Patti Poppe:
Thank you.
Operator:
Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning, Patti. Congrats.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
Good to hear your voice. Yes. So, I guess one question, so it sounds like in the past the long-term growth rate was the net income growth and now it's an EPS growth. So, to degree that you do need future equity in the plan because your investment is higher that's some of that's embedded in the growth [Indiscernible].
Patti Poppe:
That's of course is embedded, and that's what made us feel pretty confident about our forward look on EPS, and shifting today, EPS oriented long-term growth target. But Chris, why don't you add a couple points on that?
Chris Foster:
Sure thing, Patti. That's right, Steve. As you think about the growth that's embedded in our rate base update, there's over $2 billion an additional investment there. And so, what we've what we put forward is an EPS growth rate that absolutely includes future equity needs through that time period.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And then secondly, just on the back last year when there was the uncertainty over the wildfire safety certificate, there was also some mention by the commission of the kind of enhanced oversight process. Is there any update on that? And that obviously hasn't happened. So, should we view that as a good sign or is that still kind of a potential event to watch?
Patti Poppe:
Yeah, Steve, we have not had official notification or close out of the letter that was sent at the end of last year on enhanced enforcement. So, honestly, Steve, I don't think we'd be surprised if that action happened. The first step is just a corrective action plan. And frankly, that's what we're building out. We've been working very closely with the wildfire staff at the commission to make sure that our plans meet expectations. But it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the commission might take that step. And frankly, we welcome it. I don't see that as a bad thing, Steve. It all comes down to this. Look, we've got to do what we said we're going to do. Our plan for 2021 wildfire mitigation is good. It has enhanced over 2020. 2020 was better than 2019. We're using more technology, we're doing more fire prevention with our enhanced vegetation management, with our better visibility. We're using technology tools that are honestly impressive. I'm impressed by them. And we're reducing the impact PSPS events. So, all of that being said, we have confidence in our plan. We welcome additional oversight. I wouldn't be concerned if additional oversight and the enhanced enforcement was initiated because the commission has a job to do. And we welcome the visibility. And as I said, we're building out our lean operating system to really drive home the performance of that wildfire mitigation plan, and it'll provide all the visibility and transparency that's required.
Steve Fleishman:
Great, congrats again, Patti. Thanks.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Hi, everybody. One for Patti. Is this new clear sky playbook you fully written at this point, or is it more in the initial drafting stages? Is there a timeline that you expect this playbook to be fully written?
Patti Poppe:
That's a great question. One of the things that excites me, is this team I'm building, in addition to very impressive talent I'm finding here at PG&E, we're going to have the best of the best influencing this playbook. So certainly, people know that I have a lean orientation and lots of experience. So, I have a point of view on this matter. But we're hiring some really talented people. Marlene Santos is going to bring a playbook. And so, trust me, we're going to lean into that next era playbook of Marlene's. Berkshire Hathaway has a playbook and Adam brings that with them. And so, we will be looking for the best of the best lean operating system that matches the PG&E needs and addresses what we need to address here most. But I will say the basic plays of our lean operating system will include visual management, operating reviews, problem solving and standards. It's clear to me and my - already and just the two months I've been here that those plays are essential to us being able to keep our promises and do what we say we're going to do. And so, the kind of the framework of the playbook is written. But we'll have the best of the best, certainly adding to that playbook and making sure that it reflects the specific needs of the PG&E team. So, in terms of, on your question on timing, we expect to have the fundamentals of the playbook written by midyear. But we'll be always continually updating and improving our playbook. But that's the spirit of lean operating system, we're never going to be satisfied. Right. We could have best ever performance and still be dissatisfied. And so, that playbook will ever be an evolution. And so, I wouldn't suggest that there's a finish line to it, but we will be getting better every day.
Ryan Levine:
And then, in terms of the wildfire mitigation plan that came out earlier this month. Was there any changes to that you wanted to call out in terms of your forecast time horizon for any more meaningful opportunities around that effort that you could envision to evolve in the coming years?
Patti Poppe:
Well, I'll hone in on the work. And I'll let Chris weigh in just a second on the financial implications. But the work itself, the big change for 2021 over 2020 is the risk orientation of the plan. 2020, we've got a lot of work done, we did a lot of vegetation management and system hardening. But it was more based on volume of work. And what we're transitioning in 2021 to which I think will really meet the needs of both the system and certainly a lot of the observers that we have is that we're transitioning to a risk prioritized system. And so, it's really important that we prioritize the work that we're doing to maximize the amount of risk we reduce every single year. And so, we're targeting a 20% reduction of the highest risk areas of the system. And so, we're going to be focused on that as well as additional technology, additional weather stations, additional cameras, our weather meteorology system is really very advanced, and we're going to continue to advance it. And so, more to come on all on the work. And that's a big change for 2021 but in terms of the financials, I'll turn it over to Chris.
Chris Foster:
Sure, thanks, Patti. Hi, Ryan. The way I would think about this, as we've got the three-year wildfire mitigation plan fully embedded in our five-year forecast from the financial side. What we're able to do though, as we improve the plan and see the work plan longevity here. What we're able to do is work with our colleagues to reduce costs and be more efficient along the way. I mentioned this a little bit earlier. But we have been able through improved contracting, already been able to take out a few $100 million out of the business. And so, as we improve the ability to take out the riskiest miles every year that Patti's referencing, the work plan will be tighter year over year as well. But at this stage, ultimately, all three years of what was filed here back in February is currently reflected in the five-year plan.
Ryan Levine:
Great, thanks.
Operator:
Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys. And congratulations, Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just a quick one on, you've obviously assembled an impressive group of new leaders. Are we done with that process or is there still more to come?
Patti Poppe:
I'm sorry, Jonathan, can you repeat your question?
Jonathan Arnold:
Yeah. Just curious on the leadership team, if you're pretty much done with what you're planning there, or there's more to come?
Patti Poppe:
Thank you. No, we're not done. There's more to come. And I think you'll like what you see. We still have an engineering role, which we've highlighted as an important role, I think for PG&E, because we've spent so much time responding to crisis, that I think there's been a loss of the ability to focus on the horizon, to get focused on the future of the clean energy transformation and how that clean energy transformation overlaps with the need for wildfire prevention. And I think, there's a really exciting opportunity where new technologies with the right engineering team can mitigate our multiple risks, supply shortages in the summer, wildfire mitigation, as well as our clean energy transformation. And so, we're definitely we've got some great names coming. I'm not going to, we've broken up news today. We'll be sharing the additional news here in the coming weeks of additional talent that's joining the team.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. Thank you and maybe more for Chris. I guess, Chris could you perhaps just explain, it may be a reminder, just this the charge to do with the grantor trust a bit more and maybe focus on the implications for cash and timing and the like? And if there's any sort of knock-on impact on financing needs? And if recall that, you'd wanted to - you've been wanting to elect the grantor trust, so, my assumption is that, this is an outcome that, although there's going to be an upfront charge, it would be helpful.
Chris Foster:
Sure, Jonathan, thanks for the question. Happy to take it too and I appreciate it because definitely, I want to simplify this. This is ultimately good tax planning for the company. The bottom line is, if we are able to elect the grantor trust construct, which we're on a good path, we've noted here today that we've had current ongoing discussions with the Fire Victim Trust and from IRS. So, we believe it's likely we'll be able to make that election. What would happen, there is no impact to financing needs. And let me unpack that a little bit. So, PG&E will be required to take that $1.3 billion noncash charge reversing the deferred tax asset we created. And that's ultimately just an advantage that we gain here, right, because now, the advantage of the grantor trust is, we're able to experience the benefit of the share price appreciation that would occur. So, we'll reverse that charge as soon as we recognize income in future period, which depends on the price at which the Fire Victim Trust sells the stock. So, should we elect the grantor trust, which we'll do by April, there are no financing changes, we will benefit from a tax standpoint, and the Fire Victim Trust would benefit as well from the construct from a tax planning purpose?
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. And that's probably, we kept it simple. Thank you.
Operator:
Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, Patti, and team congrats to everybody on your new roles. My question is a little more longer term and trying to think about the work that company will do to help the state achieve its goals and vice versa. Anytime, I've seen a regulated utility succeed over the long-term. And succeed is probably defined in terms of providing reliable, safe, low cost, clean power whereas low cost as possible. It also comes with supportive policymaking and regulation. Those two things tend to go hand in hand. When you look at how California policies set up and align right now, and the things that are in place, but also the things that might be on your wish list, things that maybe aren't in place today, but could exist tomorrow, whether it's policy, whether it's regulation or something else, what would be on that wish list?
Patti Poppe:
Well, good morning. Thank you for asking the question. A couple of things. First, one thing I will share. As a newcomer to the California scene, I have been pleasantly surprised by the regulatory environment and the construct. I think, outside of California, I told myself things about what was true here and now that I am here. There's some really good components of our regulatory construct multiyear general rate cases with attrition adjustments. Many of you know that I have not - I have long advocated for annual filings, because you need flexibility and adjustment. But as I see the California construct, we have these long-term rate cases and filings and outcomes that provide long-term certainty to revenue. But we still have balancing accounts that allow for that flexibility to adjust and adapt as needs and conditions for our customers change. And I like that a lot. That's a good part of the construct, the decoupling the pass-throughs costs associated with commodity procurement. All of these elements make for a pretty solid regulatory construct, when we do what we said we would do. And so, it comes back to that whole thing. So, my wish list, Michael, truly is that we are reliable again, and our word stands. And so that's the focus of our efforts, it's the focus of our attention. Now, to your point about the long-term aspirations of policymakers here around clean energy and affordable energy. You may be aware that the commission held a non-bond event yesterday, and I was very optimistic about what I heard from that event. There's a real recognition that there's a risk that the entire clean energy transition, the cost of it is born in a residential electric bill. And that, in many ways is basically a regressive tax. Its tax policy borne out in electric bills. And the good news is, that was part of the conversation yesterday that we need to make sure that we have holistic cost sharing for the clean energy transition. And frankly, if we do our job, right, we can help reduce costs. And certainly, the unit cost of energy should go down as electrification takes hold both in buildings vehicles. So, I do think, if I had a wish list outside of my own wish list that we do what we say we're going to do, the rest of my wish list would be that we as California come together and find a holistic set of solutions that meet the expectations of our citizens. I find the ambitions inspiring, and we do it together as a state and that we don't finger point and sub optimize, but rather we work together to come for a great outcome, the best outcome for Californians, which frankly, then can be a role model for the rest of the world.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Patti.
Patti Poppe:
Yep, thank you.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Patti Poppe:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Patti, just want to say thanks for all the observations, congratulations as well, but maybe just kind of taking a step back just as far as what brought you to this position that you felt compelled to take it and just as you look at PCG versus your experience at CMS, just wondering if it makes sense to contrast what you see here? Or maybe just ask more directly as the CMS way the right fit for PCG? Or could the clear sky playbooks look different?
Patti Poppe:
Well, first of all, a little shout out to all my friends at CMS. They know I love them. And I think about them all the time. I was compelled by the mission here at PG&E. And this is what I'm finding, both in the people who are here, the people who stayed, they say when the going gets tough, the tough get going. And this team has got going. I mean, this PG&E team that I have met is resilient and strong and they are here and they have stayed, and I'm proud of them and grateful for them for their endurance. The additional team members we're bringing along and the reason I am here is because we felt compelled by this cause that the people of California need PG&E to be strong. We need PG&E to have the capability to answer the call that the citizens and the policymakers are defining. And so, when I thought about both the citizens of California, and I thought about the people who work at PG&E, at the end of the day, Jeremy, I just couldn't turn away. And I think people know, I had a pretty good gig back there in Michigan. But to sit and not do my part, just didn't feel like an acceptable choice. So, I came out, and I'm happy to report again, that people are coming with me. And it's really, it's a mission worth serving. Now, I'll also say that it won't be the CMS playbook. It will be the PG&E playbook. We have to write our own based on the current conditions and needs of the system. And but the lean concepts are universal. And they weren't written at CMS, had they were written 100 years ago. Deming wrote some of the early fundamentals and lots of companies have implemented them. And I've seen it implemented well, and I've seen it implemented poorly. And we're going to implement it well. I do think my years of experience do bring visibility and perspective about what good looks like when we talk about a lean implementation. And so, the team and I here are writing that playbook. And we're going to implement it. And I'm highly confident that it will provide the certainty and the transparency and the ability to deliver outcomes, not just activity, but outcomes for the sake of the people that we serve.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great. That's very helpful. Thanks for that. And maybe just a separate question on the SBA agreement. Just if you could walk us through what happens if, god forbid, there was a cause of a fire from the telco asset. Just how would that work exactly there?
Chris Foster:
Sure. So, in terms of the agreement, the way to think about it, Jeremy's at a high level, in all situations, PG&E retains the ability to have appropriate and safe access to its facilities. That's everything from pole loading, ensuring that any new facilities that are cited, are done so only in a situation where we know ahead of time that the additional weight is appropriate. It also means that if there's impacts to the facilities, certainly in that situation, it would be evaluated for a liability at that stage. But ultimately, where we're focused is and this is really the impetus behind the agreement was to ensure that going forward, PG&E maintain the flexibility to manage our assets as we need to do and that flexibility remains with this agreement.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great. I'll stop there. Thank you.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Jeremy.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Patti Poppe for final remarks.
Patti Poppe:
Thanks, Jack. Well, thanks everyone for the discussion today. It really was good to be with all of you. We are looking forward to staying in touch in the coming months and certainly most importantly, restoring your trust and your confidence in the PG&E team. Thanks again for joining us today.
Operator:
This concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Matt Putnam, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Matt Putnam:
Thank you, Rob. And thanks to those of you on the phone for attending. Joining us this morning are Bill Smith, our Interim Chief Executive Officer, and Chris Foster, Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today are John Simon, Executive Vice President General Counsel and Chief Ethics & Compliance Officer; Michael Lewis, Interim President of Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Robert Kenney, Vice President of Regulatory and External Affairs. I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to Management. Some of the most important factors that could affect the Company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's third quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes the reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures and could be found online along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that was filed with the SEC earlier today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there in our Q2, 10-Q and in the 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-K. With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.
Bill Smith:
Thanks, Matt, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before I cover the priorities for the quarter, I want to express our sympathy for all of those impacted by the devastating wildfires we’ve experienced in California. It’s been a history and very challenging wildfire season for our customers. We’ve seen over 4 million acres burned in California with nearly 3 million acres burned in our service area. We thank the Governor’s office, CAL FIRE, California Office of Emergency Services and all the first responders for their tireless efforts in keeping out new lease safe. We continue to focus on executing a series of important changes at PG&E. These changes will help us live up to the commitments made as a part of our chapter 11 emergency plan including our efforts to improve our operations and safety outcomes, reduce risk and enhance our customer focus. This morning I’ll touch on three key areas of focus for PG&E. First, improvements to our wildfire mitigation plan; second, our operational updates and third, our executive leadership recruitment progress. Chris will then cover our financial updates and key regulatory cases. Looking at our wildfire mitigation plan, our highest priorities remain mitigating ignition risk, enhancing our situational awareness and implementing public safety power shutoff or PSPS advance. We will initiate these events when absolutely necessary to protect public safety. As you can see on slide 4, we continue to be on track or ahead of our 2020 targets for system hardening, enhanced vegetation management and installation of weather stations and high definition cameras. Our efforts over the last quarter have our weather station and camera installations back on track. We will respond -- judge all such request for information in the monitor report PG&E’s unit vegetation management inspections next week share the monitoring the court's goals in ensuring we operate in a safe and reliable grid. While we acknowledge there are some areas where our comprehensive wildfire mitigation plan that we stood up in 2019 could improve, we do see some of the results somewhat differently than the letter provided by the monitor. We are unable to comment any further ahead of our response which will be filed on November 3rd. There is one aspect of the wildfire mitigation program that I'll give a detailed update on and that's our Public Safety Power Shutoff or PSPS program. We have done a lot since 2019 to increase cooperation with local authorities by hiring additional talent with emergency planning expertise. We also prioritize better communications with our customers this wildfire season. The technology improvements that will help us achieve our program goals are highlighted on slide 5. As we have in prior years, we'll continually evaluate conditions that include wind speed, humidity levels and fuels moisture among other factors. When conditions warrant we will implement power shut-offs as a last resort to keep our customers and communities safe. We have taken steps to minimize the impact of these events on our customers and we've executed five events so far this year. We have made our events smarter through leveraging technology, smaller by implementing sectionalizing devices as well as temporary generation and shorter by increasing our post event inspection capabilities. We've engaged with our communities and our customers to implement changes that incorporate their feedback while we have improved in 2020 versus 2019 in making these events less disruptive we continue to learn from each event. To make our program smarter we collect fuels moisture data and incorporate it into our fire spread modeling. This data is an important indicator along with wind speeds and assessing fire conditions in real time. We utilize the fuels data along with forecasting work we do in collaboration with the national weather service to determine where we need to implement a PSPS event. Our next priority to improve the program is to make the impacted customer footprint smaller. We have pre-positioned temporary generation in regions that are prone to shut-off events. We installed 600 sectionalizing devices which were in place by the end of August. In addition, we've added an Islanding configuration at the Humboldt Bay and Caribou generating stations which allow almost 70,000 customers to stay online. Those customers would have been shut-off in 2019. This one example of how we've implemented lessons learned from previous wildfire season. These actions allowed us to meet our goal of the one-third reduction in customers impacted in our first events. In order to make outages shorter we've increased our aerial patrol abilities through additional helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft. We now have access to more than 60 helicopters to help us meet our goal of a 50% faster restoration time versus 2019. I'd like to touch on a couple of other areas of PSPS implementation where we've increased our focus in 2020. This includes our coordination with county and city emergency managers and our outreach to customers. In December, we started holding town hall listening sessions with city managers, first responders and residents. At these sessions PG&E senior leaders listened to the local stakeholders and started working on plans to improve coordination for the 2020 PSPS events. Our team then held subsequent discussions where we worked through local plans for these events based on the information we learned in the listening sessions. As an example of change made resulting from these listening sessions, we increased the local presence of PG&E personnel who coordinate with emergency managers. These important employees serve as a single point of contact for individual counties and cities during a power shutoff event. On the customer side, we've also made significant changes in response to lessons learned in 2019. We conducted webinars focused on wildfire safety initiatives in the counties we serve. We ask questions and receive valuable feedback which we've used to address the concerns and needs of our customers on a county by county basis. We've worked hard on three specific areas related to customer engagement during PSPS events. The first is our notification system. The second is our website and the third is customer resources provided by PG&E. With regard to our notification system we work to notify customers with an initial watch notification message as early as 48 hours prior to event. The PSPS watch will be upgraded to a warning when forecasted conditions show that a safety shutoff will be necessary. Warning notifications are sent approximately 4 to 12 hours in advance of an event. These messages also include an expected restoration time. Outage and restoration information is updated throughout the event. We improved our messaging and direct response to customers’ feedback from last year. Second, on our website improvements we have moved pge.com from our data centers to the cloud where we tested the site to levels well beyond the demand we saw during our peak usage in 2019. Our enhanced web capability allows for customers to look up shutoff times and estimated restoration times by address. This information is available as early as two days before an event occurs. Also, we increased the number of our community resource centers during PSPS events. In our first event this year we had 50 community resource centers available for analogy impacting 172,000 customers. By comparison in 2019 we had 80 centers for 1 million customers impacted. These centers provide a place for customers to go during power shutoffs and are equipped with charging stations, bottled water and other necessities. All of these locations comply with COVID safety protocols. We expect to have incremental opportunities to leverage technology to improve our wildfire mitigation plans and our PSPS implementation. We continue to incorporate feedback from our community leaders and our customers to improve these events. With respect to updates and next steps on wildfire filings, as we indicated before we anticipate a decision on our safety certification request at the CPUC by the end of this month. We believe, we provided all the necessary information and we hope to see that outcome any day now. As a reminder the prior certification we received last year remains in place. Looking forward, we will take the learnings from our wildfire mitigation plans as well as our PSPS adjustments and will reflect them in our 2021 wildfire mitigation plan filing. Last week the wildfire safety division gave all three IOUs a February deadline for that submission. One additional note on operations we were notified earlier in the month that Cal fire has taken possession of PG&E equipment as a part of their ongoing investigation into the cause of the Zogg fire which was west of Redding, California. Given the early stage of the investigation and the fact that we haven't had an opportunity to review the assets retained by CAL FIRE there is limited additional information to provide today. We are fully cooperating with CAL FIRE in its investigation and will provide more information on the Zogg fire at the appropriate time. In addition on Monday we filed a response to Judge Alsup's request for information on the Zogg fire. We will not comment any further as to we do not want to get ahead of the CAL FIRE investigation. While our electric operations are certainly an area of focus given our effort to mitigate wildfire risk I also want to highlight the continued good work done by our gas operations team. One of the major initiatives to make our gas system safer is to enable in-line inspections. This method is preferable to traditional hydrostatic testing in a couple of ways. It eliminates the need for a line to be taken out of service for testing and it's safer than hydrostatic testing which can compromise the strength of the pipe. In terms of day-to-day operations our gas odor average response times and our third-party dig-in rates are at the upper end of industry standards. These are two areas of focus to ensure we provide safe and reliable gas delivery. I want to mention two facilities that we opened in 2017 that have helped us improve our gas operations. These centers were opened in direct response to comprehensive evaluation of our operations. First, in 2017 we opened the center for gas safety which has expansive lab space that allows us to test new technologies. Second, we opened our gas safety academy. Here we offer gas operations team a training space that simulates various gas emergencies we encounter in our territory. These two centers were open to ensure that we have given our operations team the necessary technology and training facilities to drive continuous improvement. We will look to the practices we have implemented our gas business and our wild fire mitigation efforts to continue to inform our path forward while we accomplished a lot in increasing safety and reducing risk we continue to work hard to improve. The last item I'd like to cover is the progress we're making on open executive leadership roles. We remain on track to name a new CEO as well as a President Utility by the end of the year. We've also kicked off a national search for a CFO. All three of these key singular leadership searches are being supported by the same firm that will help with the alignment of abilities and backgrounds. We are fortunate to have Chris Foster taking the lead as interim CFO. Chris is leading a very strong finance department while we conduct our search for a permanent CFO. These leaders will build off a few recent hires that are very exciting. Those include Francisco Benavides our Chief Safety Officer, Sumeet Singh our Chief Risk Officer and Ajay Waghray as our Chief Information Officer. These three recent additions to the PG&E team reflect our commitment to change. We will continue to operate with a focus on safety and risk while continuously looking for new ways to implement technology to increase efficiency. To build on that a bit, I'd like to share a recent initiative that we've kicked off. We are taking a focused look at our operations. We will look to operate more efficiently and improve our relationship with our customers by creating an enterprise approach to asset management adopting consistent work management practices and implementing tools to measure track and monitor our customer experience. We'll have more to share on this initiative as we move into 2021. In closing I want to express my appreciation for all PG&E frontline employees. Our employees are navigating a difficult operating environment and they continue to execute on safety risk reduction and reliability programs across electric and gas systems. With that I'll turn it over to Chris to cover our financials and some key regulatory cases. Chris?
Chris Foster:
Thank you Bill and good morning everyone. I plan on covering four items which are highlighted as the key takeaways on 53. First we are on track and reaffirming the five-year earnings guidance we set last quarter. This is reflective of the consistent growth we anticipate over the coming years. Second, I'll provide an update on our insurance coverage, the impact of COVID and our financing needs. Third, I'll highlight meaningful progress on our regulatory cases that provide additional revenue clarity. Lastly, I'll briefly cover the third quarter results. Starting with our earnings guidance elements, they're highlighted on slide 10. We've updated our GAAP earnings guidance range slightly for 2020 to reflect a loss between $1 and $1.06 per share. We are reaffirming non-GAAP core earnings per share guidance as well as our earnings factors for both 2020 and 2021. Specifically in 2020, we are guiding to non-GAAP core earnings of $2 billion for the year or approximately a $1.62 - $1.63 per share. This is based on weighted average shares of roughly 1.25 billion in 2020. The drivers of variants from earning our authorized return remain unchanged. Also noted here are the key assumptions underlying 2020 guidance. This includes receiving a final decision in the 2020 general rate case in the fourth quarter. Our guidance is also consistent with the TO20 formula rate settlement and assumes Fed’s approval of our separate AFUDC waiver request reflected in this settlement in the fourth quarter. I'll come back to these regulatory items to provide more color. Moving to non-core earnings guidance which is broken out on the same slide. We've made a couple of adjustments to these items. Our range for bankruptcy and legal costs increased $30 million to the range of $2.66 billion to $2.7 billion. The increase to the range reflects a final adjustment required to the fair value of the equity backstop fee based on the share price at the beginning of July. Additionally, for investigation remedies and cost recovery we have lowered the forecasted spend from $300 million to $230 million for the year. Roughly 30 million of this decrease is permanent and we will apply it towards the wildfire OII spend requirement. The remaining difference is timing items that will impact 2021 non-core spend. We have increased the guidance for 2019 10-K fire related costs by $20 million to approximately $170 million for the year. During the third quarter, we received information from potential claimants including insurance segregation claims that led to an increase in our accrual from $600 million to $625 million pre-tax. As it relates to the concave fire, we continue to not have access to Cal fire's investigative report or the evidence they have collected. We've also included a pickup of $50 million for the category prior period net regulatory recoveries. This category includes three items. First, we've included revenues related to the 2011 GTS capital audit consistent with previous guidance. This quarter we've also added a pickup for the 2019 impact of our modified AFUDC filing partially offsetting the first two items are prior year revenue reductions that are associated with FERC's recent order on TO18 and the TO20 settlement now pending with FERC. Our full year guidance for the amortization of the wildfire fund contribution remains the same. Moving to 2021 guidance on slide 11. We continue to see non-GAAP core earnings of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion for the year or approximately $0.95 to a $1.05 per share. This non-GAAP core earnings target is $275 million to $425 million below our authorized levels. This range is mostly comprised of interest expense of $275 million to $325 million. Additionally, net below the line and spend above authorized will taper off as we carry out additional efficiency measures. This includes revisiting contracted work such as contracts for wildfire mitigation and brings us to our range of $0 million to $100 million there. Next I'll cover updates on our non-core asset sales, insurance coverage and the impact of COVID-19 and the effect of these items on our financing needs. As we mentioned in our second quarter call, we are considering selling a set of small non-core assets. We remain early in the process there, but we have made some progress on that front. If successful in 2021, the impacts from such a transaction could reduce the high end of our $450 million to $750 million forecasted equity range for the year. We've also filed an application with the CPUC for approval to sell our San Francisco office complex fulfilling the commitment we set out in our plan every organization. Based on an illustrated sale price of $1 billion shown in our application a benefit of $600 million would flow back to customers. We are looking at 2021 for the likely timing of the sale. Moving to our wildfire insurance. We have made progress in accessing over $100 million of additional coverage since the second quarter. That puts the wildfire liability insurance component of our overall insurance portfolio at up to $868 million in coverage for the period. With regard to the impact of COVID-19, we continue to experience higher uncollectible costs during the year as well as incremental operating costs. Roughly $90 million has been recorded to memorandum accounts created to track code related costs for collection in future periods. When combining the impact of higher insurance costs, the timing of the general building office sale and the timing of recovery for COVID-19 costs, we foresee a short-term cash needing the fourth quarter that we anticipate will be met with short-term debt. We do not see these items changing our equity needs. I will now shift to covering a few significant updates on the regulatory front. We've made progress in a few areas that keep us on the path to achieving the guidance ranges we set out last quarter. I'll start with FERC. Two weeks ago, we filed a settlement in the transmission owner 2020 rate case that is subject to approval by FERC. We are pleased with the outcome and the support of the broad set of settling parties. There are few elements to the settlement that I'll highlight. First we establish an all-in return on equity of 10.45% and a capital structure that is 49.75% equity. These factors remain in place through 2023. The settlement establishes our first formula rate case that brings clarity with the annual expense throughout process and additionally the settlement outlines a modified AFUDC waiver filing with FERC that if approved will allow us to apply a higher equity ratio on AFUDC back to May of 2019. That is being reviewed by FERC staff on a separate track and we assume completion of that review by the end of Q4. I'll now shift to the cases of the CPUC. Last week we received a proposed decision on our 2020 generate case. The outcome is largely similar to the multi-party settlement released we reached last December and does not impact our 2020 or 2021 earnings guidance. The total $9.1 billion revenue requirement was unchanged. The proposed decision does include changes to the cost recovery process for liability insurance, vegetation management and wildfire mitigation capital and expense. Specifically the proposed decision would require us to file separate applications for the recovery of costs above 130% of the authorized amount. It also proposed reductions to the authorized wildfire mitigation capital costs. These are considered ("AB") 1054 related capital spend and are at the magnitude of roughly $900 million over two years. These amounts were already excluded from our rate based forecast so we do not anticipate a change in our rate based projection. The timing of this proposed decision should keep us on track for a final decision by the end of the year which aligns well with the previous statutory deadline of December 13th set forth by the CPUC in June. We've also sought recovery for roughly $1.3 billion of 2017 through 2019 costs through our recent wildfire mitigation and catastrophic events or WMCE filing at the CPUC. Related to these costs we received a decision in our SEMA case last week that allows us to recover roughly $450 million beginning in December. Now the wildfire mitigation catastrophic events or WMCE filings becomes the path to recover the remaining costs. On our securitization filing, hearings begin in December at the CPUC and based on the procedural schedule we anticipate the case could wrap up in the second quarter of 2021 with a securitized debt offering closely following. We will also be separately preparing our ("AB") 1054 related securitization filing after we receive the final decision in the 2020 generate case. Looking forward a last area I'd like to touch on due to the broad public policy focus in California is vehicle electrification. The transportation sector remains the largest emitter of greenhouse gases accounting for roughly 40% of the total for the state. So the need for emission reductions in this sector is as part of meeting our statewide carbon reduction goals is clear. Our customers’ excitement for electric vehicles continues to be reflected in consistent adoption levels. More than 300,000 electric vehicles plug into PG&E's grid representing one out of every five electric vehicles nationwide and we see additional growth due to the increasingly competitive space among OEMs. Our current CPUC approved EV charging infrastructure portfolio is one of the largest of any utility in the United States. At this time, we have installed roughly 3,500 ports as part of our phase one for electric vehicle charge network filing at the CPUC and as an indicator of our customers’ interest this program is more than three times oversubscribed. The Governor recently issued an executive order for zero emission passenger vehicles by 2035 and medium heavy duty vehicles by 2045 and in support of the state's clean energy goals we anticipate submitting a 10-year transportation liferification plan by early 2022. Now I'd like to transition to our third quarter financial result. Slide 13 shows our results for the third quarter. Non-GAAP core earnings per share for the year came in at $1.6 billion and is consistent with our full year guidance. GAAP earnings including non-core items are also shown here. The non-core items are consistent with the full year 2020 guidance I mentioned. Moving on slide 14 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for non-GAAP core earnings of $590 million or $1.11 in the third quarter of last year and $461 million or $0.22 this year. The primary drivers were an increase in shares outstanding from our July 1st equity rate interest expense as well as two timing items that are each expected to reverse. The first is the 2020 generate case costs recovery and second is the timing of taxes. With the full quarter behind us after the bankruptcy, we're now very focused on executing well on the operational and financial plan we set out. We have a strong earnings projection ahead of us that are supported by regulatory outcomes that I discussed and we are excited for the long-term opportunities provided from our state's focus on clean energy technology. With that operator could you please open the lines for questions?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes to the line of Stephen Byrd from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Stephen Byrd your line is open. Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning. Can you hear me now?
Bill Smith:
Yes we can hear you Julien. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Good morning. Thank you. So perhaps if I can go back here thank you for all the details, can we talk about the wildfire certification process and just your expectations here? I mean clearly both of your peers have it, certainly you had articulated some forthcoming deadlines here on obtaining it. Any specific context that you would provide to us and thinking about nuances as to delays or otherwise as to the process itself just given where we stand today and have a follow-up?
Chris Foster:
Sure Julien. No problem. Again I think as Bill laidout, we have filed all the information that we think is relevant that the commission was seeking at this stage. We filed that on July 29th. So we do still anticipate a decision from the commission by the end of the month. What I would offer just in terms of context around it because I think there's been a little bit of confusion is maybe a couple ways to think about it. First it's important to keep in mind that while the commission's -- that decision the prior safety certificate remains in place. If we run into a scenario where the commission were not to approve you'd have a couple of things occurring. First we would have the ability to continue to have access to the AB 1054 wildfire fund but we would lose the protections of the shareholder liability cap and the improved prudency construct. So just wanted to provide that. We don't anticipate that being the outcome Julien, but I just wanted to provide that as a way for to help you think about what the other scenario could look like.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Excellent. Thank you. If I can go back can you talk a little bit about the scenarios here with the Zogg fire, I know it's difficult to speak to it at this point in time but can you speak a little bit to the context and the decision making around PSPS and I know you all provided this context earlier but can you give a little bit more as to the events as to why you did not engage in PSPSP in that specific context there? Again how that fits into the certification framework as well?
Chris Foster:
Sure Julien. This is Chris. I think the safety certificate we would consider largely separate and apart. There was a fairly straightforward set of criteria that the commission was evaluating as it related to the certificate itself. If you look at the situation in terms of the data points around the Zogg fire, there were three different weather stations that were in the general vicinity which is what we shared with Judge Alsup in our filing this week and there I think what you saw is generally speaking the sustained winds were roughly 15 miles per hour in that area with gusts at certain publicly owned weather stations at up to around I think 32 miles an hour. That deviates from what we have in terms of our own planning. As you know our public safety power shutoff approach consists of a number of different considerations from relative humidity to the moisture in the fuels in the ground to wind speeds as well. The wind speeds in those areas did not meet the general requirements that we have in place. You could consider those as roughly 25 miles per hour in terms of sustained winds and generally speaking an exceedance of 45 miles per hour in terms of purposes when we typically consider shutting off an area that customers are being served by.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Thank you for that clarification. Lastly, sorry for another one but if I can squeeze it in just on insurance I obviously the market is dynamic. You've obtained more here. Going forward in the next year what are your options around different avenues here if you can just elaborate very quickly the intent of which that it may not necessarily perpetuate as it has this year?
Chris Foster:
Sure. I guess I would start with I have to acknowledge it's been a pretty dramatic year as Bill talked about in terms of statewide impacts from the August heat, storm, fires and other elements. So it's obviously Julian the market's going to continue to evolve I think from a cost recovery standpoint we do think that we have achieved what is reasonable in terms of insurance coverage before this year. In terms of next year, I think there are probably a few things at play. Our understanding as we read the statute is that AB 1054 does contemplate the wildfire safety administrator the entity that oversees the wildfire fund to contemplate a level of coverage for the industrial utilities in the state. Absent any kind of explicit guidance there we'd be looking at it next year to determine what would be the most cost effective coverage options for our customers everything from multi-year plan components, some different structures to the insurance itself as well as certainly trying to compete as best we can for the best price possible for customers. So at this stage for this year, we do have a total of a billion five in comprehensive coverage, 868 million of that is for wildfire coverage at a total cost of the one five which comes to roughly $ 860 million.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thanks for that. Appreciate all the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from a line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, excuse me, good morning. Just I guess a question on the fire victim fund. Have you gotten any indication from them on their intentions in terms of the shares they own and any plans for basically what the plans are for those shares going forward?
Bill Smith:
Hi, good morning Steve. We haven't at this point. What you'll see in our queue is that we did point out that as of October 20th the information the company has is that the trust has not sold any shares. So that really is the update on that for. I think at this stage obviously given the fire victims trust is a substantial shareholder of the company we do our best to communicate openly with them as well to help make sure that they're aware of events around the company but at this stage can't really speculate on how they're thinking about share issuances in the future.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Can you clarify whether they were blacked out at all or anything or just not?
Chris Foster:
No, sure Steve, I think it's a fair question the dynamics there that you should think about going forward are that the registration rights agreement that we do have with the trust provides for blackout periods some demand rights provisions and other things but largely those attributes would not be really in the public domain. Those would be exchanges of information between the company and the fire victims’ trust. Certainly at this stage our interests are very aligned and so we would want to collaborate with the trust as appropriate should they undertake an unwritten offering.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, second question just and this is I don't know how well you can answer this but we've had a lot of events this season and you've done several PSPS and obviously most of them work very well. We do have this Zogg event, but then a lot of successful events in terms of avoiding issues. So could you, is there any color you can give on just kind of political regulatory feedback you're getting on your activities so far?
Bill Smith:
Hi Steve. This is Bill Smith. Thanks for the question. I think that generally speaking people understand the nature of the challenge that we are facing and feedback has been relatively good from our key stakeholders. No one likes to see us have to do this, but I've seen in fact some articles that kind of recognize that this is about public safety and I think as unfortunate as this season has been if you look at the early part of the season and the number of wildfires we had that had, nothing to do with utilities of any kind I think it showed the public in general that this is a much broader issue than PG&E. And I think the state of California has said something approaching 9,000 fires so far this year. So I think there's a better acceptance this year of the nature of the challenge. We've been getting some pretty good feedback from all the key stakeholders that were executing well and I would like to say that in the events that we've had this year while we're still doing some of the final tallies from this latest event. But there have been well over a hundred cases where we found debris and other things into our lines that had we not taken the proactive steps to implement a PSPS could have or would have likely started a fire. So I think that obviously you point out the Zogg issue we've got to learn more about that but I would say generally speaking what we're doing is working and I think people appreciate that it's for their safety and the safety of the communities.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. Just one last quick one, just on the management hires that you're working on. I know can't probably give specifics but just given that these are obviously three very important roles, could you give us some color on the types of people you're looking at for these different roles or at least are we going to know these people any color there would be helpful?
Bill Smith:
Yes. Well without giving any detailed specifics, I think what I would say is we're looking for people with experience and a strong commitment to safety and operational effectiveness and basically operational excellence. So I'm really pleased at how that whole process is coming along. So just stay tuned, but it's come along quite well and very much according to our plan.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi good morning guys. Quick question on the TO20 and just sort of how to think about this going forward. I see it looks from the slides as though you're sticking with the rule of thumb sort of guidance modeling assume the CPUC cap structure and return across the end. But one feature of the settlement here is that you're getting to learn on this hypothetical cap structure. So sort of curious whether there is some sort of help embedded within there versus how you were suggesting we approached this before or whether it could have fit just within the general tolerance?
Chris Foster:
It's consistent Jonathan. Thanks for the question. I know that the TO20 case has some unique elements to it but at this stage the way, the thing that I would focus on is the assumption that we've called out. If you specifically look at our 2020 factors I think you'd want to focus on the AFUDC waiver because that's the piece at this stage. The other elements are fairly straightforward they're not changing relative to where we were before you. You'd want the AFUDC waiver piece to be handled by the FERC accounting staff reasonably and a general way to think about that if it's helpful Jonathan is you'd probably be looking at a $0.03 swing roughly depending on how that turns out but our assumption as we call out here implies that we think that we'll have that FERC accounting staff final view by the end of the year.
Jonathan Arnold:
Actually I did want to follow up on that to understand that better. Does that have an ongoing earnings variance impact or it sounded like it might be more retroactive looking applying looking back but I'm not sure.
Chris Foster:
It'd be looking back Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So that $0.03 you're talking about is just a swing factor in terms of what you would book as core earnings for 21 but ultimately doesn't really change the trajectory. Is that right?
Chris Foster:
So just to be clear Jonathan, we called it out as an assumption in 2020 specifically so that's where we would anticipate the impact if it were to go in a different direction.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Without going in a different direction would that change the go forward earnings power or just impact with 2020?
Chris Foster:
It would be an impact confined to 2020.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So that was it and I think just one thing on insurance I know you just gave us the total cost. Is there a data point on what you ended up paying for this incremental 100 million?
Chris Foster:
No. There is not specifically Jonathan. I do appreciate the question because there's been quite a bit of focus on the wildfire component of the coverage itself. We haven't provided any additional color at this stage. I certainly imagine we'll continue that discussion at the CPUC as we examine cost recovery there at this stage. Again this overlaps with the 2020 generate case proposed decision that we have and we do hope the commission ultimately in their final decision could land at the place where in the language that's reflected in our settlement agreement.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you very much Chris.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hi guys thank you for taking my question. Chris this one's probably for you, just curious there are lots of items that won't necessarily have a direct income statement impact but could lead to significant sources of cash inflow in the FEMA and [indiscernible] can you just walk us through those a little bit because some of these are starting to get pretty material and I'm just trying to think about things that would be kind of cash inflows for 2021/2022 that may be more cash flow statement versus income state drive stable drivers?
Chris Foster:
Sure Michael. Good morning. I think if you look at it we call them out as well in our disclosures in the queue, but the way I think about it is you have multiple different memorandum accounts that have been stacking up. I want to say it's I could be off on this number. So I'm going to be generic, but I think it was roughly in the neighborhood to $2.5 billion to $3 billion having been building up. So I think that's where your focus is. Ultimately if you step back though these cost recovery mechanisms and the memorandum accounts are something we've been planning around for a few quarters. So I wouldn't think about it as implying there's any kind of change of the financing plan that sits behind it to support it because I think ultimately if you really start with FEMA for example, it's been a fairly straightforward cost recovery mechanism for the company for years. We were pleased to see that the interim rate relief request came through that accelerated some of those recoveries Michael, but otherwise as you see those broken out we would contemplate that traditional regulatory lag that exists for Californians that wouldn't necessarily be impacting any kind of future financing.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then last item can you guys think about the bill, what’s going to happen customer bill over the next couple years. Can you talk just directionally what do you think the level of bill in place of inflation you anticipate over the next three to four years three to five years could you look at your plan?
Chris Foster:
Sure. So stepping back a bit Michael I think it's a good question. We have substantial investments needed to mitigate wildfire risk. But in terms of the company's plan it's actually pretty straightforward. We have the combination of the GTNF, our cost of capital proceeding, the generate case and now that the TO20 case which really gives us a pretty good line of sight to what that's going to look like at least for the next three years and in most of those examples. As you start to look at that kind of three to five year range we're generally speaking looking at roughly four to just north of 4% average electric system bundled average rate impacts for our customers that puts us generally speaking in line with growth projections in our state. We are very fortunate to serve the area that we do and the economic diversity that exists here and I think there's another way we look at it as you can imagine as well. We also contemplate these growth rates as it relates to a percent of share of wallet for customers. We acknowledge that our customer base is very different from customers who may live in the central valley of California to northern California and those in the more moderate temperate areas in the coastal communities and so that's the range that we're generally speaking looking at for the next few years.
Michael Lapides:
And finally are there any major cost savings areas where you think you could offset some of that bill inflation?
Bill Smith:
Thanks. This is Bill. I think there are a lot of areas. I wouldn't say there's a given major place, but there are a lot of opportunities that we think that we can do from taking approach to some of our contracting efforts. When we started after the events of 2017 and 2018, there was a very aggressive attempt to get as many resources on the ground as we could. I think there are ways for us to come back and look at that more effectively. I think one of the things I'm excited about is the point that I made about an issue that we're kicking off around some of our operational process improvements. I think there are ways that we can get much more effective at what we do, reduce lost time, take cycle time out which reduces inventory needs a lot of things. So I think it's a broad range of areas that can help us get costs out of the business not any one or two individual items.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you guys. Much appreciated.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes the line of Jeremy [indiscernible] from JP Morgan Security. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi good morning. This is Rich on for Jeremy. Thanks for taking our questions. Just want to start off with circling back on the prior question. Could you provide a little bit more call around these enterprise-wide initiatives that you alluded to earlier maybe the magnitude of the impact of COVID over the next few years and how this fits with sort of driving earnings versus offsetting customer rates?
Chris Foster:
Sure Jeremy. So there's a few different ways to look at it. I think stepping back what I think, you're interested in and I want to be sure I'm responsible are kind of categories as a way to contemplate this. Some categories would be earnings impacting others would be more specific to benefits to customers. As we look forward to the next few years, some of those categories we've talked about include things like renewable energy credits. Anytime you look at kind of the energy side of the business in that way, we're always searching for savings to make sure that we're cost competitive on behalf of customers. So I think benefits that you would see there would accrue to customers. We also continue to evaluate additional surplus property assets largely similar treatment there in a number of those cases where if there's a developed area there. Many of those benefits would also accrue back to customers. You can imagine that conversation is really evolving in real time as we look at the COVID-19 impacts and how to think about the future state of kind of the footprint of the company. Obviously that's the case with our future move as well to Oakland and moving our primary headquarters there as well. As we think about some of these other elements of work process improvement that Bill alluded to, I think you could see a split there, but ultimately we see that as being a driver for us going forward in terms of achieving cost savings that will allow us to in the future earn our authorized return as we've guided to in 2022.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you and then just given the current focus on the elections right now can you provide any early thoughts around your financial plan and sensitive issue corporate tax rates increase?
Bill Smith:
Sure. Thank you Rich. Sorry, it's limited in short because of the NOLs that the company has I think if should there be a change and should there be a substantial change in terms of tax policy I think for at least PG&E you'll see limited impacts there.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Bill Smith:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine from Citi. Your line is open.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Can you, sorry, what's the non-core assets the company is starting to sell and can you remind us the sharing mechanism between ratepayers and shareholders on the potential proceeds? Any more color your picture on it?
Chris Foster:
Sure Ryan. I appreciate the question and I'm really not able to be much more forthcoming than that. I think it's what emphasized there and where we were really last quarter’s we are really doing the internal work right now to evaluate some small non-core assets that we're evaluating. If you step back and just think about different what I'll call asset classes which are you can think about different asset classes in different ways. One of which is the land that the company owns the physical footprint that we have in different areas. Some of which is developed, some of which is not. Generally speaking the benefits of the crew from any sale will differ depending on that treatment as one example. As you look across other different asset classes there could be opportunities where the gain on sale treatment is slightly different and so at this stage we are very focused on this effort. I do think we can continue to make progress but don't want to be too specific because I don't want to get ahead of our internal work in any kind of outreach we'd otherwise be doing at a later stage.
Ryan Levine:
Thanks and then changing gears what assumptions change that drove the higher estimate and given that you haven't received the Cal fire report are there any additional information changes that you're anticipating that we may see further revisions at this current estimate?
Bill Smith:
Sure Ryan. So this is really just an element of time passage and us getting better information over time. At this stage what we had referenced, we're having conversations as you can imagine with some of the different entities and in particular what we noted were the segregation claims themselves we have better data than we had before as you recall with prior, as you may recall with prior wildfires in prior years the California office of insurance had disclosed a greater level of granularity which provided one means by which to have additional input. In this situation we have now improved data as it relates to the segregation claims in particular and that allowed us to update our accrual at this stage.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. Thank you.
Bill Smith:
Thank you.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time.
Matt Putnam:
Well thank you all for your interest in PG&E and thank you for joining us on the call today. If you have any follow-up questions please don't hesitate to reach out to investor relations. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Chris Foster, Vice President, Treasury and Investor Relations, PG&E Corporation. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Stephanie. And thanks to those of you on the phone, for joining us. Before I turn it over to Bill Smith, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to Management. Also joining us this morning are John Simon, Executive Vice President Law Strategy and Policy and Jason Wells, Executive Vice President and CFO. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company's actual financial results are described in the second page of today's second quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes the reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures and could be found online along with other information at investor.pgecorp.com. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that was filed with the SEC earlier today. And the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2019 Annual Report on Form 10-Q. With that, I'll hand it over to Bill.
Bill Smith:
Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone. We are excited to return to our traditional format. Today's call marks a milestone for us and we're excited to share our post emergence vision for the coming years. We've emerged from bankruptcy as a stronger company the complex legal matters are now resolved in major regulatory cases establishing our revenues are either approved or settled. We also have a good line of sight on a regulatory framework for the next three years, our financial plan displays strong growth and enables a path for the company to get back to investment grade. Our remarks today will focus on changes we made on governance, progress on our wildfire plan and preparations ahead of the 2020 wildfire season. I will conclude with an update on key regulatory matters. Jason, will then cover the financials, including updated guidance, kind of walk through the quarterly financial results. Our focus now turns to building on the many changes we've put in place in bankruptcy. We've set the foundation for an improved Company. At the same time, we will never forget the impacts to the communities we serve and those who lost their lives as a result of catastrophic wildfires in recent years. Our mandate is to rebuild the trust of our customers while delivering operational excellence. We'll do that by focusing on responsive customer service and system investments and focus on risk reduction, safety and reliability. Organizational changes to help deliver on this mandate are already well underway. First, at the Board level a 11 new directors were ceded at the start of this month. These Directors were carefully chosen based on their individual skills and backgrounds and are well suited to [indiscernible] our Company for years to come. One of our initial priorities as a Board is to hire the next permanent CEO and that process is ongoing. We've had recent changes that we've announced among our leadership ranks and I want to thank each of them for all their contributions to PG&E. With our emergence from Chapter 11, this is a natural inflection point for leaders to evaluate their future and the roles at the Company will continue to build our team through both internal development programs and external hires. A couple of recent additions to the team include Francisco Benavides, as our Chief Safety Officer and Sumeet Singh as our Chief Risk Officer. And I'm delighted to say we'll be announcing a CIO soon. We have a seasoned team in place that is well suited to execute on our operational improvement plans developed during the bankruptcy process. For example, the core electronic operations team members that manage our wildfire mitigation efforts and successfully achieved our goals during the last wildfire season remain in place. This group has consistently improved our tools and evolved our capabilities each year. I have confidence that this team and others will add to deepen the bench will lean on their extensive experience to manage the evolving wildfire through it. And we will take the necessary steps to keep our customers safe. If you go to Slide 3, of our presentation, you can see we're progressing well on our four key wildfire mitigation plan targets; I'll cover a few areas on the wildfire preparedness front; First, I'll touch on our operational work plan status. I will also showcase some of the technology, we continue to deploy to better understand our assets and reduce risk. Then I'll touch on our public safety power shut-off or PSPS program evolution. Knowing a number of the program goals are longer term in nature, we continue to stand ready to shut off power when extreme weather conditions present themselves. So, let's start with this year's mitigation work behind these numbers, annual work plan is on track to meet all of our 2020 targets. We had some supply chain issues early on in the stages of due to COVID-19 which slowed our progress on the installation weather stations in HD cameras. We resolve those issues and fully expect to meet the program goals. Turning to Slide 4, you'll see a snapshot of how we're making foundational investments in technology that we're excited about. On our enhanced inspection work, we're evaluating new programmable flight options to ensure greater consistency and efficiency of the drone inspections we do. We've also started partnership with one of the country's most advanced data analytics companies, we're working to migrate to predictive maintenance utilizing the enormous dataset we've collected from advanced visualization inspection tools. This year will likely add another 2.5 million images of our assets. We are utilizing machine learning tools to deploy computer vision models to compile asset inspection photos. This improves the quality and consistency of the analysis. All of this part is knowing our assets better and consistently improving our records and data. Stepping back with these early stage examples we're evaluating a range of different technologies much as we did with the methane leakage technology adopted by our gas business years ago. We are fortunate to be working with California-based companies on these emerging technologies that will reduce wildfire risk in our state. We've taken this partnership approach for years on the Clean Energy front. Our announcement yesterday that we're breaking ground on just on one of the world's largest battery energy storage systems with Tesla is just another example of that. There is one other aspect of the wildfire mitigation program that I'll give an update on, and that's our PSPS program. It's covered here on Slide 5. As we have in prior years we will continually evaluate conditions that include wind speed, humidity levels, fuel moisture and other factors when conditions warrant will implement power shutoffs for public safety purposes. We've taken steps to minimize the impact of these events on our customers, we're working hard to make the PSPS programs smaller, shorter and smarter. To make our PSPS program smarter, our team will be using new whether modeling as double the granularity of the data feeding our models. Our team will now use the improved insights to inform which circuits are considered for shutoff. The improved accuracy of the forecast should ultimately result in fewer customers being impacted. Our next priority to improve the PSPS program is to make the customer footprint smaller to address this, we are pre-positioning, about 460 megawatt of temporary generation, in order to meet critical community needs in areas that have a high probability of an outage. These will be strategically placed at over 60 substations, midfielder locations and secondary health facilities. We've also installed nearly 400 sectionalizing devices and plan to achieve our 2020 goal of 600 devices by the end of August, both solutions allow us to keep power on in more places where it's safe to do so. In combination, these elements are expected to allow us to reduce the number of customers impacted by one-third. In order to make the outages experienced by our customer shorter, we've increased our Aerial Patrol abilities through additional helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, by using infrared cameras we will be able to conduct controls into the evening, unlike last year where our post of it inspections were limited daylight hours. This greatly advances, our ability to meet our goal as a 50% faster restoration time this season. As I mentioned earlier part of the improved financial foundation for the company has improved clarity on our key regulatory cases, I'll touch on a few of those. First, I'll cover some updates at the CPUC, looking back to our previous gas transmission and storage rate case we overspent on capital and Salt recovery. Roughly $600 million of that spend we're subject to audit, which was completed in May would no disallowance is recommended. We are now authorized to seek recovery of [indiscernible] that and we anticipate a decision on that filing in Q2 of 2021. As a reminder, we've reached an all-party settlement in our 2020 general rate case, the Commission recently updated the procedural schedule and we expect a final decision by the middle of December. In our securitization filing this week of scoping memo was released by the Commission, pointing to hearings at the end of November. Given this update, we would anticipate resolution around the start of 2Q next year. We are required to have our safety certificate renewed each year in order to access that AB 1054 wildfire fund. Our 2020 safety certification request is currently with the Commission for review and our certificate from last year is valid while the review is underway. Moving to FERC in our transmission owner 20 case, we are currently in settlement discussions. But we do not know the timing of potential resolution. I'll close by touching on COVID-19 and workforce impacts. And I'd be remiss not to mention other challenges, our employees and customers face given the broader backdrop of the issues that are part of our larger national discussions. While we continue to make headway in the second quarter even with the challenges created by COVID-19. The recent uptick in COVID cases in California has resulted in the state reinstituting measures to protect against further spread, compared to what we reported in May. During the period from mid-May to July, we've seen a 3% reduction in electric load and a 4% reduction in core gas load on a weather adjusted basis versus 2019. We also experienced high -- cost in 2Q. These impacts have often there have been offset by a regulatory asset that was recorded to Memorandum Account created to track COVID related costs. Given the challenge of our current operating environment, I want to take a second to express my appreciation for all PG&E frontline employees who continue to execute on our risk reduction, safety and reliability programs across Gas and Electric Systems. Our workforce is also engaged in the broader discussion around diversity and inclusion. We are fortunate to serve a customer base with extreme diversity. As a company that has weather bankruptcy and still maintains a very low overall attrition rate, we're focused on this conversation with our employees and our [Technical Difficulty] over 50% of our hires in [Technical Difficulty] and we will maintain a history of investing in diversity, including eight consecutive years of [Technical Difficulty] supplier spend. With that I'll turn it over to Jason to cover the financials.
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Bill and good morning everyone. I plan on covering three items, some of which are highlighted here on the financial summary on Slide 6. First, given the clarity resulting from the emergence from Chapter 11 and the resolution of key regulatory proceedings. -- Now benefit from -- as -- wildfire fund as well as from -- lastly, I'll briefly cover our results for the quarter. Stepping back to the more traditional earnings format -- Chapter 11 emergence. We plan to provide a slightly longer view of our earnings potential and a greater level of detail than in the past. We've provided some of the basic assumptions impacting GAAP and non-GAAP core earnings for you on Slide 7. We've also provided a traditional, look at CapEx and rate base growth, the latter of which is growing at roughly 8% our assumption for rate -- order due to our anticipated timeline for cost recovery of the -- rate case audit results -- million. We now have that amount included in rate base and earning a return-on-equity in 2021, there was no impact to our capital forecast for the year. One item to note is that CapEx is reflective of the $3.2 billion in wildfire mitigation spend but does not earning equity -- under AB 1054. However, this amount is not included in these rate base projections. Moving to our earnings guidance elements. First, we are updating earnings core earnings per share guidance for 2020. Second, -- non-GAAP core earnings per share guidance and updating our potential equity needs for 2021. We do about if we now go to Slide 10 starting with 2020 earnings guidance, we have updated our earnings factors to reflect the anticipated non-GAAP core earnings of roughly $2 billion for the full-year. That translates into approximately a $1.60 to $1.63 per share based on anticipated average share count of 1.25 billion shares outstanding for the full-year. This non-GAAP core earnings -- levels and reflects a tightening of -- $350 million that we provided last quarter. We are also narrowing the range on both components of under earnings on our net below the line and spend above authorized we are adjusting the expense range $225 million. And that primarily reflects additional wildfire spend up of authorized. Second, unrecoverable interest expense will be consistent with the midpoint of our prior forecast range and results in a $125 million impact to earnings for the remaining six months of the year. Keep in mind that for 2020 some of the factors such as increased shares outstanding and interest expense from our exit financing are impacting over the last six months of the year. Additionally, the guidance assumes a final decision in the 2020 GRC this year, consistent with our all-party settlement. Moving to non-core earnings guidance. There are a number of elements that I'd like to update here. First, we have an updated range for [Technical Difficulty] to a range of $2.63 billion to $2.67 billion, which reflects the total equity backs up fees of $1.5 billion, a charge of $620 million [Technical Difficulty] for the reduction of the deferred share value for the equity contributed to the Fire Victims Trust. And total legal and professional service costs for the Chapter 11 proceeding. Second, the $300 million of investigation remedies and cost recovery has been updated to reflect the uncertainty in the tax deductibility for a small portion of the amount -- due to the wildfire and Locate and Mark OII. Third amortization of the wildfire fund contribution has decreased to roughly $300 million for 2020 reflecting an increase in the assume life of the trust, that I'll discuss further in my prepared remarks. Fourth due to the media notice provided by Cal Fire recently identifying PG&E's transmission line as the cause for the Kincade fire. We've also recorded an accounting charge that reflects the low end of the range we provided last quarter. A write-off of associated restoration costs any receivable for the associated insurance recovery. And finally, we've updated the pickup associated with the successful audit of the GT&S Capital. The $80 million reflects a recognition of the regulatory asset for recovery of the historical depreciation expense and cost of debt. The final decision approving cost recovery is now anticipated in 2021 and accounting rules limit the ability for recognizing a regulatory asset for the historical equity return until that final decision is received. Moving to 2021 earnings factors on Slide 11, we have made progress addressing the factors contributing to under-earning our allowed return-on-equity, resulting in an increase in our forecasted non-GAAP core earnings relative to the forecast included in our March disclosure state. We are initiating non-GAAP core earnings for 2021 in a range of $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion. This is roughly $50 million to $250 million more than our previous estimate in the March disclosure statement. Comparing this range to our authorized earnings this guidance results in between $275 million and $425 million below authorized levels, reflecting an update to net below the line spend above authorized levels of up to $100 million to $325 million in unrecoverable interest expense. We have line of sight to initial improvements relative to our disclosure statement in a few areas including lower unrecoverable interest costs and renegotiated third-party contracts that will result in more efficient execution of some of our inspection repairs on our electric system next year. 2021 is the first year we'll experience the full dilution from the exit financing and as a result, this translates into a range of non-GAAP core earnings per share of $0.95 to $1.05. Our 2021 guidance incorporates the same inception assumptions as 2020 with the addition of approved securitization application in the first quarter. Non-core earnings guidance for 2021 includes a one-time upfront charge for securitization of $1.36 billion, amortization of the wildfire fund contribution of $330 million bankruptcy and legal cost of around $40 million to $80 million, $80 million of investigation remedies and cost recovery and pickup, about $140 million related to the deferred equity return on the successful audit of the GT&S capital given the final decision we expect next year. We're also providing an update to our potential equity needs in 2021 which are contingent on approval next year of our securitization application at the CPUC that Bill mentioned earlier. While we remain committed to achieving an investment-grade ratings across the enterprise and paying down roughly $1.7 billion and holding company debt in 2021 consistent with our March disclosure statement, we are lowering our projected equity need in 2021 to between $450 million and $750 million. This range includes the net impact from the Kincade fire accrual this quarter. I would also like to reaffirm that we also do not have any anticipated equity needs beyond 2021 for our five-year plan. There are a few factors that contribute to this overall reduction, including the improved earnings range I referenced earlier and a slight reduction in CapEx, we are projecting. Additionally, we continue to pursue the vesting of certain non-core assets that could generate additional proceeds, more cost effectively than issuing equity it would enable us to trend of the lower end of this revised equity range. Turning to Slide 12, we have confidence that 2022 and subsequent years will continue to reflect a roughly 8% rate base growth, I mentioned earlier and that rate base growth will be outpaced by earnings growth as we continue to pay down unrecoverable interest costs. As Bill covered the operational efforts we are making to mitigate fires along with a good execution, thus far on our operational work plans or financial risk has also been reduced as we head into the traditional start of fire season. We are now fully participating in the AB 1054 wildfire fund having made our roughly $5 billion contribution. As a reminder as participants in the fund a disallowance liability cap is in place and the new prudent manager regulatory framework applies. In terms of how this contribution has been reflected in our second quarter financial statements, we've recorded a regulatory liability of $6.7 billion, reflecting the discounted value of the total payments to be made to the wildfire fund. In addition, we recorded a wildfire contribution assets of $6.5 billion with a difference reflecting amortization expense for the period of time we had partial coverage under the fund prior to our emergence from Chapter 11. The total expenses amortized based on an expected life of 15-years, which is longer than the previous estimated life of 10-years, this change resulted from an adjustment to the model to better reflect relevant historical data in the effectiveness of the state's collective wildfire mitigation programs. We also establish our new liability insurance coverage, which runs from August 2020 through July 2021, total in slightly more than $1.4 billion. The wildfire liability insurance component provides up to $757 million in coverage for the period. The non-wildfire liability insurance provides up to $700 million for wildfire events. The total cost of this overall coverage is roughly $750 million. We will continue to pursue additional insurance coverage for the same policy period and weeks to come. We will seek recovery for all premiums associated with this coverage, either through the proposed two-way balancing account included in our pending 2020 general rate case settlement or through the existing Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account tracking mechanism. Now I would like to transition to our second quarter financial results. Slide 13, shows our results for the second quarter. Non-GAAP core earnings came in at $1.3 per share and is largely consistent with the disclosure statement forecast. GAAP earnings, including non-core items are also shown here. The non-core items are consistent with the discussion of the full-year 2020 guidance I mentioned. Moving on Slide 14 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison of non-GAAP core earnings per share of $1.10 in the second quarter of last year and $1.03 this year. The primary drivers related to the way in the 2020 GRC decision as well as an increase in interest on prepetition payables and short-term debt with no corresponding cost last year and wildfire mitigation costs that exceeded our authorized levels. These costs were partially offset by growth in rate base earnings and timing of taxes. To close this out. I just want to echo Bill's comments at the start of our call today. The clarity we have on a number of fronts, positions us very well from a governance operations and financial standpoint. We are focused on earning our authorized rate of return-on-equity lastly unrecoverable interest expense in 2022. And you can see that our five-year financial plan grows at roughly 10% earnings growth, which exceeds the 8% rate base growth we provided. When combined, we see a competitive total return. Even with our temporary suspension of the dividend, having a Chapter 11 case be in on our operational plans. Open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, thanks. Hi, good morning and nice to have you all back, doing…
Bill Smith:
Good Morning Steve.
Steve Fleishman:
A couple of operational questions just on the wildfire preparation. The it's not the year just based on looking full-year that you're kind of how much you're on track or not. Could you just how you're progressing with those categories and…
Bill Smith:
Steve, this is Bill. I'd be glad to do that. We are really on chart on target with all of the -- as I mentioned a couple that we had a little bit of a delay. Starting on were related to weather stations and the HD cameras, those were impacted by some assembly issues at factories that were closed down temporarily in some things of that nature. But, we are on plan to be on target and get -- everything completed in some of these cases we're ahead of target. So for example on the veg management, we're actually running ahead of -- where we are on temporary generation, we're going to overshoot that target by about 50%. So we're doing very well. Overall, the two items that were a little bit delayed early on. We've got a recovery plan in place. So we feel very solid about getting all of this program executed as scheduled.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just any comment on the departure of the Utility, CEO.
Bill Smith:
No, I think, I think during an emergence like this, it's a lot of times people reevaluate what's going on and so this is not an expected situation we're situated with the leadership team we have in place and we're actively bringing in the next generation of leaders for the new PG&E. So, we're all set.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. And then just on the thinking about 2021 in the securitization assumptions, -- just do things change -- dramatically for some reason the securities. And is it or would it be kind of I think you have other alternatives and worst case but just Sumeet could you give maybe a little bit of color there.
Jason Wells:
Sure, happy to do so. Steve, this is Jason. While we have confidence in the securitization application being improved. I mean I think it was a strong statement of support, by governor -- when he said it was in the best interest of the public to see that securitization application approved we did as a fallback measure as part of our plan of reorganization. We asked the CPUC to approve extension of that temporary debt the $6 billion -- we asked for a -- waiver to the capital structure in the event that securitization application is not approved, so from financing risk associated with the securitization application. I would say that the one impact if not approved, would be there would be incremental unrecoverable debt on that $6 billion in 2021 and beyond.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And I apologize, I have one last question, the grantor trust discussion that you mentioned in the release that kind of in terms of the Fire Victim Trust how you treat it. Could you maybe just give a little bit of a punchline on how to interpret that. And what that discussion means?
Bill Smith:
Sure. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we took a $620 million charge this quarter to reduce the deferred tax asset associated with the stock that we issued to the Fire Victims Trust. We had originally recorded -- as asset based on the settlement value of $6.75 billion. As a result of -- then that original assume asset -- billion of value attributed to that trust. At that reduction in the deferred tax asset assumes that we maintain the tax reduction based on a qualified settlement fund which essentially the tax deduction is recognized at the time, but the stock is issued to the Fire Victim Trust, however, we are pursuing a different election for the deduction -- and that would be the cross-election actually allows us to deduct the value of the stock when it is sold, and so as the stock value increases over time it would allow us to recognize a larger tax deduction. There are a couple of technical to -- convert to that grant to our trust that we are we'd expect clarity on that likely around the end of the calendar year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, thank you very much. Appreciate all questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley, please go ahead.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi, good morning.
Bill Smith:
Good Morning, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
Thanks for that really thorough update on a lot of topics. Just a couple of items here. I guess from my end. Just in terms of the cost of wildfire insurance you laid out the amount of coverage. I was just curious, generally in terms of commentary in terms of just availability and cost of that. What's your general sense of sort of the magnitude in cost that you're seeing these days.
Bill Smith:
No, we are certainly seeing tightening in the liability insurance market well, AB 1054 provides significant financial stability to the utility's, the fact that inverse still applies mean sort of the first dollar of loss falls on liability insurers and as a result we've seen sort of tightening capacity in that market and a significant increase in costs, as I mentioned in liability insurance at $757 of which relates to wildfire claims. The total cost of that program at $750 million, it's obviously a significant increase over what we were doing several years ago and I think it sort of reflective of what will be an ongoing trend of higher liability insurance costs going forward.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood. That's helpful. And then I guess, stepping back, when you look at the overall business I guess I'm thinking a lot about optimization -- and then not related to wildfire risk, but just sort of cost optimization across the entire PG&E footprint, whether that be how do you go about procurement, looking at real estate that is owned is there a potential in your mind for a kind of a more thorough review now that sort of you've re-emerged and just looking across that the whole business in terms of here's where either operating costs, not related to safety, again, but just, other areas could be reduced or real estate could be monetized just thinking more broadly, are there such opportunities?
Bill Smith:
Yes, Stephen. Thanks for the question. I think there are pretty extensive of opportunities available for the company. We are cognizant of maintaining the affordability of our service particularly as we continue to invest significantly in our gas and electric systems. I think you've touched on a couple of the programs that are at the forefront of the start of our work on cost optimization and that is selling underutilized assets, things like as you mentioned real estate could also include has included selling excess renewable energy credits. I also think you've touched on another opportunity that we see an opportunity for significant improvement around and that's our third-party spend the company spent about $10 billion annually with third-party suppliers, there was a number of contracts that we had to enter into over the last couple of years to incentivize crews to come out west to accelerate the work on our wildfire system, those contracts include premiums to attract that significant level of work that was needed on our system. However, what we are doing now with third-party suppliers is we are bundling that work and committing to longer term plans in order to bring the cost structure down over-time, we've seen a couple of really good examples in our vegetation management inspection programs and look forward to continuing to work with our third-party suppliers on the rest, sort of those elements. There is an opportunity for the company to redesign, some of our work management related capabilities, but our focus is on the upcoming fire season and so, we will grow into that sort of process redesign over the coming couple of years.
Operator:
You're next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, everyone.
Bill Smith:
Good morning Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
And can I just ask on the timing of the CEO search process you I think you mentioned you were going to announce a new CIO soon, but any sense of just what the sort of likely time frame for the leadership announcement would be and then also on that topic do you anticipate still having a separate Utility and Co-CEO. It is, could be as a reminder on where you stand on that Governance question?
Bill Smith:
Sure. Thanks for the question. This is Bill. The search is being launch for the CEO as we speak, so that process is underway. The target deadline is to have someone in that role permanent -- by the end of the year fortunately, there is no -- flexibility to be in the role as long as I need to be, but we're really looking for getting the next generation of the leadership team fully in place and get that flows. So, that team can start executing their plan going forward. So we think that it's reasonable to have that individual in place by the end of the year and that's still our target. But what's most important is finding the right person. So, there's nothing artificially imposing a deadline on that particular item. With regard to the Utility head. There is a requirement to have some separation between the corporation and the Utility. I don't think it will be a CEO per se, I think will likely go back to the way it had been for a number of years with the President of the Utility more if you think about it more of a President and Chief Operating Officer. That seems to make more sense, I think it's been a little bit confusing to a lot of constituents with the dual CEO title, but there are some requirements to keep separation between the Utility in the Corporation and we'll obviously continue to honor those.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great, thank you, Bill. And then Matt just on one other question on the equity for the 2021 if I believe in the disclosure statement you sort of talked about that being one possibility, but you might also pay down debt a little slower, presumably, if you didn't like the price on the potential equity issuances that should we take what you're doing today more as a definitive statement that you plan to do this piece with equity or is it still possible you might choose not to.
Jason Wells:
Jonathan, thanks for the question. I mean, I do think we retain that flexibility as we look at, there is equity needs. Right. Let me clarify a couple of things first he equity that I mentioned that revised range to $450 million to $750 million that's contingent on the securitization application. We also have had an opportunity given sort of the earnings forecast improvements as well as some timing and cash flows have been able to sort of generate a reduction in that contingent equity need. As I also mentioned, we are exploring certain divestiture of non-core assets with sort of a more natural owner and so that would also has an opportunity sort of bring us to the lower end of the range that I mentioned and then into the point that you raised. We do have some flexibility around the timing of the holding company debt pay down, but I want to reiterate we are also committed to improving our balance sheet health and achieving investment grade credit ratings. And so I would anticipate, if the securitization application is issued equity in that general range next year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from [indiscernible] with Citi. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
In terms of the $757 million insurance. I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned potential to expand that further new operator around the potential or what you'd call would be as we get closer to wildfires here?
Bill Smith:
Yes, we're currently as conducting this call is still in the market with a number of different risk transfer policies, and so we think that there is still some -- that we are continuing to pursue our goal would be to try to achieve the billion [ph] for that it's prescribed under AB 1054 I will say, I think [Technical Difficulty] full level, but there is some additional capacity -- in the market that we're pursuing.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then in terms of the issuance assumption for '21 beyond asset sales, are there any other key drivers of where you may be within the range as the securitization?
Bill Smith:
No, the reduction in the equity range really improved earnings forecast some of the cash flow benefits that I mentioned really bring us to sort of I call it -- it's the disposition of some non-core assets that would drive us to the lower end of that range that we provided.
Operator:
Next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys, Thank you for taking my question. All of the upper you've put in over the last two years, especially over the life 18 or 20 months, which has been hectic obviously just curious, can you, Jason talk about the holding company debt. So I think it was around $4.8 billion. And then the temporary short-term debt the $6 billion. Can you walk us through a path -- over the next couple of years of what you want those balances to be two or three years from now and how you get there.
John Simon:
Thanks, Michael. Great to be back on a formal earnings call again. With respect to the holding company debt as part of our plan of reorganization we committed to the State of California that we would not reinstate our common stock dividend until we had achieved $6.2 billion of non-GAAP core earnings, that's roughly about three years post emergence. And so those retained cash flows provide significant capacity to pay down that holding company debt. We are anticipating paying down roughly a little more than $3 billion of that debt over the next five years with the majority of that debt being paid down over the retained cash flows from that suspended dividend. I think with respect to the $6 billion in temporary debt there is really two paths to pay that debt down the first path is the securitization application that is in front of the commission to the extent that application is approved the $7.5 billion of proceeds from that securitization will be used to pay down a $6 billion in temporary debt if, and we think it's unlikely the securitization application is not approved. We have asked the Commission for a permanent capital structure waiver on that $6 billion temporary debt and what we have committed to is using the shareholder funded net operating losses as we realize those shareholder net operating losses, we will use those cash flows to pay down that $6 billion in temporary debt over time. And so those would be the two pathways to addressing that debt at the utility level.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And if I think about when you guide for 2021 guidance the unrecoverable interest expense that you lay out in the guidance slide how much is that all just tied to the HoldCo debt into the temporary debt or is there anything else that's contributing to that?
Jason Wells:
There are sort of the three sort of factors that I would, there is some incremental debt above authorized levels; First, we raised about $2.5 billion of incremental debt at the utility to fund half of the wildfire fund contribution upon emergence that has no impact on our equity ratio because we have an equal amount of equity to offset it on a ratio standpoint, but it is $2.5 billion of debt above authorized levels that contributes to under recovery. And then, as a result of the securitization application and the impact on the equity ratio we do have a modest amount of incremental Utility debt in 2021 that is contributing to that unrecoverable interest expense that will effectively get paid down in 2022 and 2023. Those are sort of the three sources beyond again the holding company and the temporary debt we discussed.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Richard Sutherland with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Richard Sutherland:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions here. Maybe turning back to the insurance premium question by that we've touched on a couple of times. Could you speak to the AB 1054 requirements and any changes there possible should you be under situation, we are not going for recovery of the premiums.
Jason Wells:
Thanks, Richard for the question. No, I wouldn't anticipate any change to that fundamental structure that in AB 1054 -- in AB 1054 as past really sets sort of the foundation for eligibility for the state wildfire fund that damages that exceed $1 billion utilities are encouraged to secure risk transfer up to that level given kind of all of the issues that California is currently undertaking. I don't necessarily see an amendment AB 1054 that would modify that, that expected level of risk transfer liability insurance.
Richard Sutherland:
Got it. Thank you. And then just on Kincade real quickly, you spoke a little bit about this in the script, but curious in terms of reaching the expected impact of the costs in 2020 here what hurdles from, I guess the CPUC or other parties -- standpoint remain to kind of tying it up?
John Simon:
Hi, Richard, it's John. I will say on Kincade. It's very early in the process and I won't speculate on tying it up what makes it really difficult to give more certainty in the answer is, a couple of things; First, we don't have the evidence fire has that their concluding there and after the fire. So they have things as you probably know, we don't have the report which lays out their determination, we'd certainly like to see it. What I can tell you is meant is the cause of Kincade. We would work for an expeditious for the timing and so with a -- question.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Paul Fremont with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Paul Fremont:
Thank you very much and congratulations for being back I guess my first question. Can you just confirm the dollar amounts doing the pipe and the convert, including all the over allotment that are sort haven't been finalized.
Bill Smith:
Yes. Thanks, Paul. For the question. The over allotment feature the backstop of the green shoe -- the structures were put in place to ensure that we raised a total of $9 billion across the pipe, the mandatory convertible equity as well as the common equity and so we have issued the total $9 billion as a result of the expiration of that over allotment feature at this time.
Paul Fremont:
Great. And can I just get the convert dollar amount that because that's obviously going to affect the future share count.
Chris Foster:
Paul, it's Chris. I'll make sure we follow up with you separately on that.
Paul Fremont:
Great. Then is a secure, would you expect the securitization to -- have you receive regulatory approvals…
Chris Foster:
Generally speaking, there is a 90 day -- applications. I don't think that -- I think in terms of Bill's prepared remarks references in the second quarter, we took into consideration, the timing of the decision is well, as the appeal window. So we think it is sometime sort of early in the second quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. And definitely appreciate you guys during the call and taking the questions. Quick question, you answered most of them, but for the CEO search how much input -- is the --are you going to seek or do you have to seek from legislators, governor's office and other non- Utility entities?
Bill Smith:
This is Bill. Thanks for the question. There is no formal requirement obviously, we will look for someone -- that would be a good fit in California and someone that the stakeholders here would be comfortable with. There is no formal requirement for approval, but that process basically is what we went through in feeding the new Board. And the new Board is extremely talented group of people and I think we'll do the same thing with the CEO search. So I'm really, really pleased at the prospects of having high caliber challenge for obviously the last couple of years, but there is nothing that will keep this Corporation in my opinion from being able to perform in top quartile, if not top decile level, we just got some work to do and I think it's a great opportunity for the right person coming in. So, I have no concerns about any inability to find someone that's a nice fit for the environment here in California.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great, thanks. And then one other quick follow-up on Kincade, what is the time line or the ability or the amount that you'd have access to the AB 1054 fund and how that might impact the insurance recovery that you've booked so far.
Bill Smith:
Thanks, Travis. I'll answer the first part, maybe, Jason you can answer the second part in terms of the wildfire fund AB 1054 is available for claims costs after insurance above $1 billion for the reasons I was mentioning earlier it's very early for us, no evidence no report we haven't paid any claims side there. So in terms of tapping into that fund won't speculate on that and maybe, Jason on the second part.
Jason Wells:
Yes. Thanks, John. Right now because the accrual estimate is below the $1 billion threshold. There's been no recognition of cost recovery from the states wildfire fund it we would only begin to record a receivable for our the cost exceeded $1 billion, up $4 billion threshold one thing though that I will point out is that we do have and are -- eligible about 10% of those costs through our transmission and rate cases, we have to wait and see what the underlying report by fire -- before we can see that cost recovery, but in the event that -- there our substantive violations identified, then we have the opportunity to again speak about 10% of the net cost through the Transmission Owner rate case process.
Bill Smith:
Thank you. Travis for that question, Stephanie, thanks for helping us to organize the call today. Everyone, thanks for joining for our call today. Have a safe day and fell free to ask us if you have additional questions. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Chris Foster - IR Geisha Williams - CEO Jason Wells - CFO John Simon - EVP and General Counsel Steve Malnight - SVP, Energy Supply and Policy Pat Hogan - SVP, Electric Operations
Analysts:
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Praful Mehta - Citigroup Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Christopher Turnure - J.P. Morgan Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Partners Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates
Operator:
Good afternoon. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to PG&E Corporation's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to pass the conference over to your host, Chris Foster with PG&E. Chris, you may begin your conference.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Chris, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Here with me today in the room are Geisha Williams, Jason Wells, John Simon, Steve Malnight, and Pat Hogan. Before I turn it over to Geisha, I would remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's third quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes the reconciliation between non-GAAP earnings from operation and GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today, and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2017 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha Williams:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. Before we dive in, I first want to acknowledge the one-year anniversary of last fall's devastating wildfires. The efforts by members of the impacted communities to rebuild and improve emergency planning and preparedness for potential future fires continue. We are deeply involved in all of this work as we collectively adapt to the new normal. I also want to take a moment to thank our employees who have worked tirelessly throughout the peak wildfire season to keep our customers and community safe, including the recent activities associated with our decision to proactively shut off power for safety in parts of our service territory. Following extensive outreach to key third-party agencies and our customers, in mid-October we shut off power in certain communities in the North Bay and Sierra Foothills in response to a forecast for extreme high fire risk weather conditions. When the weather improved, our crews conducted patrols across the entire 3,400 impacted miles of our power lines by helicopter, vehicle, and on foot, identifying multiple lines that had sustained damage. Service was restored to nearly all customers within about two days, and I would personally like to thank our impacted customers and communities for their patience while we worked to turn their lights safely back on. This morning, I'll touch on Senate Bill 901, and then I'll walk you through our community wildfire safety program proposal, the multiyear effort targeted at wildfire risk mitigation that continues to evolve and expand. I'll reference some of the near-term progress we're making on enhanced programs, and also highlight our plans for the coming years. Finally, we have a number of regulatory proceedings that are underway or will be filed in the near-term, and I'll touch on a few of them today. These proceedings are a key area of focus over the coming months. Now, as you all know, in September, the governor signed Senate Bill 901, which addresses a set of very complex wildfire related issues. While we believe this bill represents a constructive initial step, more important work remains. This law provides for improved financial stability for the investor-owned utilities in the state. However, it does not address inverse condemnation, and it remains our firm view that this must be revolved through legislative reforms or legal challenges. So while we're pleased with the progress made, we will continue our focus on reforming inverse condemnation, including as part of the Blue Ribbon Commission's work as it comes together during the upcoming legislative session. Also coming out of the legislative session was the passage of Senate Bill 100, which sets a 60% renewable portfolio standard target by 2030. It also requires that 100% of all retail electricity sales come from RPS-eligible or carbon-free resources by 2045. California's investor-owned utilities are critical to meeting these clean energy goals. And we will require access to affordable capital in order to help the state meet these bold targets. As these policy reform and legal engagements continue, we are actively tackling this new normal on a variety of fronts. Our operational approach and focus must evolve with the growing threat posed by extreme weather conditions. And with nearly a two-fold increase in the number of acres burned this year as compared to last, we are continuing to further ramp up the work that we began prior to the start of this year's wildfire season. Our expanded Community Wildfire Safety Program was established after the 2017 wildfires to implement additional precautionary measures intended to reduce or further reduce wildfire risks. It consists of three core elements that collectively target reducing risk in the high fire threat areas across our system, will improve situational awareness in the near-term, execute targeted infrastructure hardening in the highest risk areas, and further enhance our operational practices. These plans will be further detailed in the 2020 general rate case that will be filed later this year. We believe that our proposal sets forth an appropriate level of risk reduction while balancing the cost to our customers, recognizing that we must strike a balance between the two. At a high level, we'll use a mix of the tools I'll describe and apply them in different parts of our service area to efficiently and effectively mitigate risk. First, we're enhancing our situational awareness which improves our ability to track detailed weather conditions, detect fires more rapidly, communicate more effectively with local, state, and federal agencies, and respond to potential fires that are underway. By their nature, some of these program investments can be executed in a relatively shorter timeframe, and intentionally target our highest risk areas. Our teams are refining advanced fire modeling and detection systems which we'll utilize in our Wildfire Safety Operation Center that was opened earlier this year. The daily areal patrols we're conducting will feed the captured information to this team of experts. And additionally, over the next four years, we plan to deploy more than 600 high definition cameras, establish coverage across these high fire risk areas to roughly 90% by 2022. Over the same timeframe, we're proposing to add approximately 1,300 weather stations, a density of one station roughly every 20 miles in the highest risk areas. When combined with existing weather stations, they will provide a significant level of awareness of localized weather differences experienced on the ground. As an example, one benefit over time becomes the ability to very narrowly enact targeted outages on specific circuits to minimize impacts to our customers during extreme fire condition as a last resort option that is part of our public safety power shutoff program. These enhancements will give us additional information that we need to refine our risk assessment, pursue smarter system investments, and make timely decisions across the identified high fire threat districts. Our second area of focus is on hardening our system to further enable any and even safer, stronger, and more resilient grid for our customers. In the next 10 years, we intend to upgrade our system across a targeted roughly 7000 miles of our highest risk areas with stronger and more weather-resistant poles and insulated tree wire. We're also proposing to replace other equipments such as fuses and transforms to further reduce the risk to our system. We will tailor our upgrades to match the terrain and conditions we expect to face to based on a more granular analysis of these fire-prone regions. Finally, we are enhancing our operational practices to further align with the changing conditions we are facing daily. This is consistent with what you have seen us do over the last few years including when we significantly increased the vegetation management work we began in 2014 as a result of the historic drought and bark beetle infestation. We will be focused on an enhanced vegetation management program across our high fire threat areas in the coming years. Part of this plan includes risk-informed targeted tree removal beyond the dead, diseased, and dying trees that may be within the fall zone of our overhead wires and that are part of our ongoing tree management efforts. Our risk reduction strategy also includes 12-foot radio clearances in high fire threat areas consistent with provisions of the fire prevention OIR issued by the CPUC at the end of last year. And we also plan to clear all vegetation that hangs above our wires. That represents enhanced vegetation management work on over 25,000 miles of our overhead distribution lines in high fire threat areas that we are targeting to complete over the next eight years. We also have our public safety power shutoff program that I mentioned earlier. And we will, of course, only utilize this as a last resort in the most extreme forecasted weather conditions. All of these efforts are in addition to our ongoing pole maintenance and visual and infrared inspections of our assets. We plan to continue patrolling our poles at frequencies within high fire threat areas beyond the compliance requirements in place in California. Collectively, this is an integrated comprehensive program to further reduce risk across our high fire threat areas. Jason will cover in more detail the financial impacts of these important programs, but I would offer that they create substantial incremental investment opportunities that we will be presenting to the Commission for approval. Finally, I'll now walk through what is a very full regulatory calendar over the course of the next year. Starting with one of our core rate cases, last month we filed our transmission owner case with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which included a 12.5% return on equity. In December, we will be filing our Nuclear Decommissioning Cost Triennial Proceeding which includes our request for cost recovery associated with the eventual decommissioning of our nuclear unit. Next April, we intend to file our 2020 cost of capital application. While we evaluate the operating environment at the time of our filing, we believe our cost of capital is higher than the 10.25% currently authorized given the increased risk of extreme weather event, the continued application of inverse coadunations to invest their utilities, and the State's bold clean energy targets. In mid-December, we will be filing our 2020 general rate case, which will include the system hardening work that I just mentioned as well as a continued focus on modernizing our Gas & Electric system to meet the evolving needs of our customers and communities. With the substantial investments I have referenced this morning, you can appreciate that top of mind with all of our proceedings is a balance between risk reduction and affordable service for our customers. The CPUC's shared emphasis on customer affordability was clear in its final decision in the power charge and difference adjustment rule making. This ruling was a positive outcome and allows for equitable allocation cost amongst all our customers. We look forward to working with the Commission on future proceedings that also address cost allocation issues for our customers, including net energy metering. Alongside these cases, we'll continue our path towards gaining efficiencies in our business. The CPUC recently indicated that in February we will need to file the first annual wildfire mitigation plan as required by SB-901 and the commission two weeks ago held its first meeting to cover some of the initial thinking on the scope of this work in their order instituting rule making. We expect the vast majority of the work that we present will be captured in existing proceedings such as the 2020 GRC and recognize that the commission has expressed its desire to move expeditiously on these wildfire plants which we support. But we will also involve these plans as we continue to further strengthen our risk mitigation technology and practices which is why we annual plan and review the mandated by SB-901 are sensible approach. Jason will walk you through our capital plan now, but I just wanted to emphasize we're highly focused on tapping the need for greater policy and financing certainty, executing on a series of necessary system investments and continuing to prioritize affordability for our customers. As I look back over the last quarter, we've made solid progress on a number of fronts including a community wildfire safety program and the passage of SB-901, and we're prepared to aggressively execute on additional work as we seek to further mitigate risks in the communities that we have the privilege to serve. Finally, we're committed to keeping you updated as we walk through our various regulatory proceedings over the course of the next year. With that, I'll turn it over to Jason.
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Geisha, and good morning everyone. Today, I'll walk through the results for the quarter. We will also provide CapEx and rate based guidance through 2023. Before we dive in, I want to address the customer harm threshold through disallowance GAAP which will establish a cap on the amount that shareholders will contribute to cost associated with the 2017 fires. We're beginning to work constructively with the commission on a process to objectively review this unique charge from the legislature but I want to acknowledge that we're still in early stages. We've recognized there is great interest and better understanding this figure and believe it is critical to establish this threshold timely as new material information becomes available, we will continue to keep you apprised. Also reiterate that given the continued uncertainty, we're facing particularly around the amount and timing of any potential future financings, we're not providing earnings per share guidance on today's call. With that, let's move now to the financial results for the quarter starting on slide six. Earnings from operations came in at a $1.13 per share. GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. Legal and other costs associated with the Northern California wildfires net of insurance recoveries total $43 million pretax. Pipeline related expenses were $30 million pretax. We recorded $9 million pretax where legal costs related to the Butte Fire. Lastly, we reduced the previously recorded charge for capital costs that we anticipated would be disallowed based on previous gas transmission rate case decisions. This is driving a $38 million pretax gain this quarter. Moving on to slide seven, which shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of a $1.12 in the third quarter of last year compared to a $1.13 this quarter. We were sixth sense favorable due to the growth in rate base earnings. We expect rate base growth to drive an increase in earnings of $0.25 for the full year. Timing of taxes which fluctuates with earnings throughout the year was $0.02 favorable for the quarter. On a full year basis we expect this item to net to zero, anticipated recovery of insurance premiums was a penny. Following the approval of our wildfire expense memorandum account in June, we expect a record roughly $0.09 in insurance recoveries in 2018. We were $0.06 on favorable quarter-over-quarter due to the timing of our operational spend in 2017. We bundled some of our work to allow for more efficient execution in the second half of 2017 resulting in a delay in some spend from Q3 to Q4. This year, our spend reflects a more typical pattern we were a penny unfavorable due to the lower authorized return on equity in 2018 as compare to 2017. We expect this to be approximately $0.05 on an annualized basis. Miscellaneous items, we're also a penny unfavorable this quarter. There are several offsetting items here including incremental wildfire risk mitigation spend associated with our community wildfire safety program. While we have several mechanisms in place to recover costs associated with this program. We believe there is some cost recovery risk as the expanded program ramps up. Transitioning now to slide eight and our assumptions for 2018, our capital expenditure forecast for 2018 has increased by 200 million with the forecasted total spend of roughly $6.5 billion. This is primarily driven by incremental spend on our electric distribution substations, reflecting our continued focus on improve reliability for our customers. Partially offsetting this increase is reduction in our electric transmission spend mainly driven by project work moving from this year to feature periods. In the lower right quadrant, we've also updated our other factors affecting earnings from operations. As I highlighted last quarter, the regulatory asset we are recording this year to recover a portion of our incremental insurance premium costs is expected to have a favorable impact on earnings. However, the incremental cost associated with our wildfire risk mitigation work will likely offset much of this favorability we don't anticipate these costs to have an impact on our earnings from operations in 2019. It remains our objective to our authorized return on equity on earnings from an operations basis in 2018. Slide nine shows our forecasted items impacting comparability. We've narrowed the range for pipeline related expenses to 40 million to 50 million pretax, while small portion of this work will carry over into 2019. We will discontinue reporting these costs and adding impact and comparability after 2018. We've also narrowed the range for legal cost associated with a Butte Fire resulting in a revised range of $35 million to $45 million. The high-end of the range for the Butte Fire also includes $200 million for third-party claims cost consistent with last quarter. Estimated legal and other costs associated with the Northern California wildfires, reflecting narrowed range of a $150 million and to $260 million. We've also reduced the expected insurance recoveries associated with the Northern California wildfires to roughly $400 million. While we ultimately expect to recover up to the full amount of our insurance policy, the timing of this recovery I shifted out a bit. The reduction and anticipated gas related capital disallowances of $38 million pretax reflect the partial reversal of the previous disallowances of capital costs that I mentioned earlier. Finally, anticipated 2017 insurance premium cost recoveries are consistent with last quarter. Slide 10 shows our forecasted capital expenditures from 2018 through 2023. For 2019, we expect our CapEx to be roughly $6.4 billion compared to our forecast of approximately $6 million last quarter. This increases primarily driven by roughly $300 million in system hardening work associated with our Community Wildfire Safety Program. For providing an annual range for CapEx beginning in 2020 and continuing through 2023 with a low end of $5.7 billion reflecting amounts currently authorized in our rare cases and the high-end of the roughly $7 billion based on amounts we have file or expect to file and future rate case proceedings. The high-end also reflects the capital we are proposing to spend as part of our Community Wildfire Safety Program at roughly $700 million annually from 2020 through 2023. These amounts will be reflected in our upcoming 2020 GRC request, with similar levels anticipated in future GRC requests. Slide 11 provides a rate-based growth with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7% to 8.5% from 2018 through 2023. As Geisha mentioned the passage of Senate Bill 901 represents progress and we look forward to executing on this robust capital plan in the coming years. California's is bold clean energy goals continue to foster the environment growth, which only increase with the recent passage of Senate Bill 100. Attracting capital to execute on these goals is more important than ever and we look forward to partnering with a state on continuing to drive this positive change for Californian's environment. Of course, our shareholders require a fair return for their investment, needed to make these transformational changes. As Geisha noted, we will be considering the factors that drive incremental risk in California when we file our cost of capital application expert. Moving now to equity, we should approximately $140 million through our internal programs through the third quarter. While participation of these plans can vary throughout the year, I expect that they will generate roughly $200 million for the full year. As of September 30, 2018, our equity ratio was 51.5% at the utility resulting in a pretax cushion of roughly $500 million relative to the 51% minimum that would require a capital structure waiver. Looking ahead, given the continued uncertainty regarding our financing plans, we are not issuing equity guidance today for 2019 and for future years. However, we do expect to continue to utilize our internal programs in future periods. On slide 13, we've summarized the key factors that will influence future equity issuances. In closing, I want to reinforce that we are laser-focused on working through the items that will ultimately provide the investment community greater clarity. We have a strong growth plan in front of us, and we are well positioned to execute on it. At the same time, we continue to drive efficiencies in our business as we look for ways to keep our service affordable for all of our customers, a key focus in coming years particularly as we ramp up on system hardening to continue to keep our communities we serve safe. While this year have proved challenging, our priority remains on solutions that result in favorable outcomes for both our customers and shareholders. And this same priority will guide our efforts associated with our wildfire litigation strategy and how we approach the customer threshold process. With that, let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Jason Wells:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Quick question on, I'm just curious at previous occasions you've give sort of a three-year GRC type outlook and this is the 2023, if I'm not wrong, would be after the to-be-filed 2020 GRC, or is it are you perhaps signaling that you could look for a four-year GRC here?
Jason Wells:
No, Jonathan. Our intention with providing the five-year forecast was to reflect our confidence in the long-term spending program that we're proposing. We anticipate the 2020 GRC will cover the period of 2020 through 2022, but we have light of sight to the long-term spending plans which gave us confidence to provide the five-year forecast.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, that's helpful. And then you also -- I think the details you gave on the Community Wildfire Safety Program, you're showing us a five-year look. But what's the kind of real longevity on this. And yes, you mentioned spending at similar levels in future GRCs, plural, if I heard you correctly.
Geisha Williams:
Jonathan, this is Geisha. Our view is the Community Wildfire Safety Program has different elements. The veg management work that I described, our intention is to really address that 25,000 miles over an eight-year period. On the system hardening, we're look at a 10-year focus on roughly the 7,000 miles. And this is a long-term approach to frankly de-risking our assets in these high fire prone areas.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then just had one other thing, when I look at the rate base for 2019 it's obviously higher than what you had approved in the prior GRC. Is the difference there pretty much all to do with this community planned spending or are there some other -- can you unpack any other differences, Jason, there, as we're trying to translate that into sort of probability of getting approved at that level, et cetera?
Jason Wells:
I do think if there's low cost recovery risk. In 2019, the higher level of CapEx and rate base associated with the Community Wildfire Safety Program is roughly $300 million. The remaining difference is essentially the timing of spend associated with our general rate case and gas transmission storage rate case decisions with a small amount coming from CapEx. Essentially, we have been spending more in the later years of those rate cases then we did in the earlier years. But the spend, overall, during those rate case periods is generally consistent with what has been authorized in those cases.
Jonathan Arnold:
So you would isolate the amount by which '19 rate base exceeds currently approved amounts to the piece related to the wildfire program, is that fair?
Jason Wells:
To roughly that $300 million that we intend to spend for the Community Wildfire Safety Program.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, thank you very much, guys.
Geisha Williams:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Stephen Byrd:
Hi, good morning.
Geisha Williams:
Morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Byrd:
It was helpful disclosure you provided in terms of the CapEx. And I'm just sort of thinking through that CapEx that you laid out on slide 10. And at the higher end of that range, at the $7 billion, kind of the far right bar, how should we think about how you would fund that? Would you be able to rely solely on your programs? And I'm kind of thinking steady state; I know there are a number of moving parts in the near-term, but longer-term at that higher end. Could you rely on your equity programs? Would you need to go out and seek larger amounts of equity in offering, how should we think about sort of financing that $7 billion number you lay out?
Jason Wells:
Stephen, I think at the $7 billion level the required equity contribution it would exceed what we anticipate to recover through our internal programs, both kind of the amount that we're seeing this year as well as sort of the amounts that were generated prior to the 2017 fires. And so I really think there's a number of factors that are going to be impacting our financing plans, mostly largely associated with the 2017 wildfires. As we think about dividend reinstatement down the road, we are going to have to balance the growth that we see in our business with the competitive payout ratio of our dividend. And so we will balance all those factors. So I think it's too early to really be specific with how we will raise that incremental equity that will be needed to fund that higher level of CapEx.
Stephen Byrd:
Yes, and I respect that, there are a lot of factors. Actually -- and just you had mentioned dividend, which was another area I just wanted to touch on. When you think about both the factors that are really driving your thought about potential dividend reinstatement but also I think, importantly, about the policy to pay out level, et cetera. Would you mind just giving us your latest thoughts around the key drivers there, both of timing the three institute as well as sort of philosophically, does -- obviously we have much higher wildfire risk than we used to. Does that factor into your decision about payout ratio, any color on the dividend would be helpful.
Geisha Williams:
Yes, thanks for that question, Stephen. I can tell you, we couldn't be more cognizant of the importance of dividends and the role that dividends play to our utility investors. So as we think about this, I would also tell you that our Board is very engaged, and is continuously evaluating, both the timing of the dividend reinstatement as well as to what level it should consider. But it has to look at a number of factors that are impacting our environment. So for example, we've got to take a look at what are the ultimate determination of the cause of the pub fire from Cal Fire. What is the Safety and Enforcement Division's report in terms of our operating practices in regard to the fires that we had in '17? And we're also looking at what are the potential decisions of local DAs in terms of brining charges against the company. Now, all of these factors we believe could impact the determination of the customer harm threshold process that is going to be kicking off at the CPUC. What I would tell you is that, well, we're not looking at any of these specific items or milestones as a triggering event. We do need to acknowledge that there are a number of uncertainties that could impact the longer-term value of the company. So with all that said, the focus is on, in our Board anyway, is really to consistently evaluate all of these relevant factors. It's a pretty fluid situation. And our goal is to provide you with clarity in terms of the dividend reinstatement when it's appropriate. But we're just not in a position to do that today.
Stephen Byrd:
Understood, thanks. I'll get back in the queue. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. Just on the affordability, could you maybe give a little more color on this capital plan when you see all the different factors, costs -- cost cuts, and PPAs that roll off, kind of what do your rate levels look like over the five-year plan?
Geisha Williams:
Well, I think I'll talk about it pretty broadly. I mean, we are absolutely focused on costs, and we understand how important the issue of affordability is for our customers, particularly at a time when we're proposing additional wildfire-related spend, and then also write the potential for the securitization of third-party liability in the years ahead. So we understand we've got to take a look back and figure out how do we expand the necessary work to de-risk our system, while at the same time focus on doing that in the most cost effective way possible. So as you know, Steve, we've been really focused on our affordability initiatives for several years. And those initiatives, as we look at our costs and our efficiencies will apply as well for all of the hardening effort that we have planned. So we're also, frankly, looking at our own costs, our own programs, and at the same time looking at broader policies that are designed to release cost pressure. So for example, and I mentioned this in my opening remarks, we advocated really aggressively for changes to the PCIA, and we're gratified to see the substantial progress that we made on correcting that cost shift from CCA customer to a broader bundled customer. Next year, we've got another opportunity to take a look at those cost shifts as we start thinking about net energy metering and how to reduce those cost shifts as well. So our view is to look at the work we can do on our own in terms of our own programs, our own efficiencies, while also looking more holistically at the policy area to see if there's opportunities to reduce costs further for our customers.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then you probably noticed that Edison gave the -- their view of their -- I guess fall on the Thomas Fire prior to Cal Fire actually issuing a report. Do you see any chance that you would do that on pubs or you're definitely going to wait till Cal Fire issues a report?
Geisha Williams:
I think that we're at this point in the game, we are really very much waiting on Cal Fire to complete its work. We're looking forward to seeing them complete their work. And we obviously don't have access to all the information, all the evidence, all the various things that they're considering. So it's our belief that at this point, given what we know, that it would be prudent to allow Cal Fire to complete its work.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, that makes sense. And one last question on the customer threshold filing, when you do make a filing is it going to be more of here's what the procedure we think should be or will it actually be here's what we actually think the customer threshold should be?
Geisha Williams:
Well, I think that when you look at SB 901, it left a lot of room for interpretation in terms of how to answer that question, which I think adds a lot of complexity, and frankly likely adds a lot of stakeholders into the process who might be really interested in the outcome. Our point of view is and what we've been advocating is that the process, whatever that process is, needs to move forward soon. And we've been expressing that view throughout this last quarter. So not exactly sure in the bottom line, Steve We're working expeditiously with the CPUC, we're asking them to take up this important question. What I would tell you is we are working urgently. This is a high priority; we want to bring clarity to both the process as well as what the final threshold amount is going to be as soon as possible. We understand how important that number, that process is to the various stakeholders.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, thank you very much.
Geisha Williams:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning.
Geisha Williams:
Good morning.
Greg Gordon:
Has there been a formal process that's even been started in terms of engagement between the different utilities who'll be affected by the stress test, or as we're calling it now, the customer threshold and the CPUC, so that we'll have a sense of when that -- there's been an official sort of starting date for that?
Geisha Williams:
Well, first of all, I think in terms of the stress tests, the customer harm threshold for 2017, it's really a PG&E issue primarily, and so we've been, as I mentioned earlier just to Steve, engaged in dialogue with the CPUC on the importance of getting started, getting started quickly. We recognize that there likely will be other stakeholders that will have an interest in the proceeding, whatever that may look like. And so it's in process, but there isn't an official date or timing that I can give you at this time.
Greg Gordon:
Got you, thank you. And how does the wildfire mitigation plan filing sort of dovetail with the GRC, are they sort of operating in parallel but relate to each other as it pertains to the $7 billion spend that you've requested?
Geisha Williams:
Yes, that's a good way of thinking about it. We're using the vehicle that's available to us, which is I think appropriately the GRC, the 2020 GRC, to propose our wildfire mitigation activity -- our wildfire mitigation plan. Having said that, on an annual basis, the CPUC will take a look at what the wildfire management plans are. And so they've kicked off, through that OIR process we're using. The GRC is a funding mechanism, and then we'll have a separate proceeding to approve those plans through the SB 901 annual review process.
Greg Gordon:
Got you. And the Safety Enforcement Division is conducting a review of the fires as well. If my memory serves me correctly, I don't see that on the timeline of key regulatory cases here. But when we last spoke your lead director indicated that was something that you were keenly watching. So can you explain why and when the expected timing is of its release?
Steve Malnight:
So this is Steve Malnight. Greg, thanks for the question. The SED has that they are investigating working alongside with Cal Fire and others. We expect that they will issue a report once all of the Cal Fire reports are out. We don't really yet know the timing. And we don't know what would result from that. Obviously as you know this PUC has wide discretion to consider potential penalties if they found something as a result of that investigation or also could launch an OII. I think at this point, we don't know yet where that proceeding will go but we've mentioned that that is a factor that's out there as well.
Q – Greg Gordon:
Okay, final one really quick, the safety culture investigation that came out of the San Bruno fire is still open, what are our expectations there in terms of whether that will ever be resolved?
Steve Malnight:
So this is Steve Malnight again, thanks. The recently the PUC actually issued a proposed decision in the safety culture OII. That proposed decision effectively agrees with the recommendations from North Star and the North Star originally reported and requires PG&E to implement them by July 2019 with quarterly reports to the commission. So we're actively engaged in implementing those recommendations and moving forward and we expect that the commission could vote on their proposed decision, I think the earliest is at the second meeting in November.
Q – Greg Gordon:
Okay. And there is no ROE penalty proposed in that meeting?
Steve Malnight:
That proposal was, that proceeding was just to look at those recommendations and where they go, they did they rejected other recommendations from other parties. So it's just about implementing the existing recommendations from North Star.
Q – Greg Gordon:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much, hi guys.
Geisha Williams:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Good morning. So there is obviously a lot going on the legislative legal side related to wildfires and waiting for the customer threshold as well, how should we think about the financing and the plan for like the 2019-2020 timeframe given all of these uncertainties, is there any near-term equity I guess related to the current fires that you already know about or how should we think about all of this playing out I guess for the 2019-2020 timeframe?
Jason Wells:
Praful, I think it's just too early to be to be definitive there with the suspension of the dividend, there is not a near-term equity need, I think the sort of clarity around sort of the longer-term equity needs for 2019 and 2020 are really largely going to be driven by the timing of the customer harm threshold process and so it's just really too early to put a date to that time.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. So in the near-term any financing need would be more funded through holding company debt or revolver borrowings?
Jason Wells:
Currently, we don't have any discrete equity needs, we're going to continue to issue equity through our internal programs as I mentioned in my prepared remarks and we will continue to raise long-term debt consistent with our rate base growth as we periodically need that as we have in the past.
Praful Mehta:
Understood. And then in terms of the customer threshold again just to get back to that given the importance wanted to understand is there any -- when do you expect I guess somebody to get appointed to do that process, you said you already working with the CPUC on it, so is that directly with the CPUC or do you expect somebody to be appointed by the CPUC and what is the timing for that?
Geisha Williams:
Let me start Praful, it's a very fluid situation without specific sort of milestones that have to be achieved by a particular time, so it's a difficult question to ask in terms of how the CPUC is looking at it at this point, we're continuing to advocate for timely starting the process whatever that process may look like, we understand that other stakeholders will have a point of view on that as well as will we but there is not a specific series of actions that are needed to be taken in order to provide that customer harm threshold analysis to be completed. As I mentioned earlier, SB-901 provided pretty broad discretion to the CPUC on how it handle something like that.
Praful Mehta:
Understood. And do you expect the Overland report to have any kind of framework or guidepost to that process or do you see this as completely different?
Geisha Williams:
It could, again it's I think it possibly could be something that acts as an overarching framework but we certainly don't know what the CPUC's intentions are what they're thinking in terms of how or if to use the Overland report.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. Thanks so much guys.
Geisha Williams:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning everyone.
Geisha Williams:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So I wanted to go back to the projected rate base figures you provide through 23, I wanted to understand just reconciling the CapEx ranges the 577 relative to the rate base. When you think about the lower and upper ends, does that necessarily reconcile with the 577 or there other moving factors that we should be aware of when it comes to whether it's tax reform or perhaps other items that you may be accruing to rate basis? I want to make be extra clear about this particular given the wide range of the rate base.
Jason Wells:
Julien, this is Jason. Largely it's a reflection of the CapEx, obviously the rate base figures have assumptions around appreciation, deferred taxes but none of those things are unusual nature, they're just sort of byproducts of the CapEx spending plans.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. So said differently to be clear, if you got the $7 billion number through that 2022, 2023 period that would be consistent with the upper end of that range to be sure?
Jason Wells:
Yes, that's right.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Is that reason for the wide range is not a reflection of some other factor to simply reflection of the range of the CapEx itself?
Jason Wells:
In a compounding nature of that of the wide range of CapEx over that period of time, yes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great, excellent. I wanted to come back to Steve's earlier question around the customer threshold process, how do you in light of the commentary around the Overland report, what other methodologies are you thinking about again, again I know it's early days in the process but how would you frame it outside of the Overland report given how relevant or lack of relevant data points there might be within that?
Steve Malnight:
Hi, this is Steve Malnight, Julien. I think as Geisha was saying really look there are a lot of different processes and pathways that this proceeding could go, I think we're engaging in conversations with the commission about different potential pathways, different processes that could be engaged in other interveners will have, they will have their point of view as well. I appreciate the desire to know more, I wish we just don't have more to really tell you about that today and I think as you can imagine many different ways they could go and we're going to continue those conversations. As Geisha said, obviously this is an urgent focus for us, it is something we're focused on driving clarity on not only process but obviously getting to clarity on the amount as well and we'll continue to keep you updated as we go.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right, sorry. Just a quick clarification on the rate faith given that a lot of the wildfire mitigation seems to be running through the GRC process as well as I suppose in parallel a wildfire mitigation plan. Do you expect to get definitive kind of CapEx related updates more in the mid part of next year or are we really waiting for a GRC outcome before getting real comfort on where you are in this range. Just to be clear incremental over time obviously?
Jason Wells:
I think the incremental CapEx spending associated with the wildfire mitigation efforts roughly $700 million a year in that 2020 to 2022 period. I think we'll get a stronger signal next year as we go through the wildfire safety action plan at the commission obviously we're going have to wait for the GRC decision to finalize that overall spending level. But next year we should get a good indication of the support for the program that we're proposing.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. Real quick on interpreting Senate Bill 901 and what costs are potentially recoverable via securitization and what are not. I get it that anything that would be inverse condemnation related would be recoverable via at least some portion of that if not all would be via recoverable securitization. What about private liability or if there any negligence related costs that come out of various lawsuits that are under way. Is that covered under 901 or is that covered separately?
Steve Malnight:
Michael this is Steve Malnight. So under Senate Bill 901 what it really did was establish the customer harm threshold to apply against all costs that the utility could bear as a result of the wildfires. So it really is indifferent to the drivers. It's just the point that beyond a certain threshold, customers would be broadly harmed and therefore the better alternative past that point is securitization. So really it doesn't speak specifically about different aspects of the costs.
Michael Lapides:
Okay and is there is at this point meaning or at least until you have the docket next year. There is no real way of kind of knowing or defining what is that kind of harm to all rate payers' number or level. You've got to literally go through that and have you in the commission and others kind of analyze that and come up with whatever the best estimate is for any number of years?
Steve Malnight:
Yes, that's correct. The Senate Bill 901 really doesn't spell it out beyond the general direction for the commission to consider, customer harm and the inability for us to continue investing in the safety and reliability of the system, so that they left it to the commission to decide the best process and pathway and that's what the commission will be doing.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you guys. Much appreciate it.
Geisha Williams:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Christopher Turnure with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Christopher Turnure:
Hi, I wanted to follow-up on the fire safety or fire mitigation plans that you're going to be filing shortly with the commission. How specific do you think the plans should be or how specific do you think the CPC would want those plans in terms of milestones to achieve the exact timelines cost buckets et cetera as opposed to just one or two big numbers over the 12 or 18 month timeframe?
Steve Malnight:
Yes, Chris. This is Steve Malnight again. So I think that that is the process that the commission will lay out in their scoping memo which will be coming soon. As they've laid out this process, so they'll issue the scoping memo we'll have the discussion in November we'll be filing those plans in February and they will be deciding on those plans three months after. So they've set out an aggressive timeline here. I think this would be the first time through So a big part of it will be the specifics. I should say that as you and Jason laid out in the comments, we have a very specific plan in mind in terms of what we want to go deploy and we'll be advocating for that through this proceeding as well as through the GRC. Those will align and our initial filing and the GRC filing, so the Commission will set that really soon. We'll see more on what they're going to propose.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. Got it. And then my second question is on your overall capital plan and funding requirements. There's been a couple of questions on this already obviously but I think it's probably fair to assume that you view your cost of equity as being above your authorized cost of equity right now. How reasonable a source of funding is equity overall for your five year plan, given the current numbers authorized to you by the commission and your current estimate of your own cost of capital.
Chris Foster:
Yes, we've seen, we've clearly seen an increase in the in our cost of capital Chris and I think in recent transmission on a rate case that we filed with first reflects our current thinking about that elevated cost of capital, when we think broadly about sort of funding CapEx over this five year time horizon. I think what an important element of that is going to be the timely resolution of the customer harm threshold as well as the securitization of costs above that threshold. And so, our focus right now is working constructively to bring clarity to those items to lower our cost of capital so that our customers don't have to pay that elevated cost for an extended period of time. I think it's really too early to be specific or any more specific than that.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay, fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, good morning guys.
Jason Wells:
Good morning, Shahriar.
Geisha Williams:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza:
I know you touched a little bit on the ultimate cost to the consumer but maybe specifically honed on O&M, obviously it's a healthy amount of O&M that you guys requested in the current wildfire plan. So how should we sort of think about your O&M growth path on a go forward basis especially as we think about the rate impact given sort of the sizable capital program you presented today. I mean knowing the plans you know and obviously they'll you know somewhat change through time. Is there a way we should be thinking about your O&M growth profile?
Jason Wells:
Sure, this is Jason. I think it's too early to give a specific O&M trajectory, what I will say is as Geisha has mentioned in her comments we are laser focused on continuing to drive efficiencies in our core work. We have lowered the cost of our base O&M over the last couple of years however those reductions have been largely offset by cost increases, we're seeing with insurance costs as well as the elevated levels of vegetation management that we're proposing here. So while we've made good progress, there's more to do and we are laser-focused on continuing to execute on those long-term affordability programs for the company.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then, just real quick from legality standpoint, the power shutoff program is leading the summary parachuting for the disruption, is this sort of any merits to these cases?
Geisha Williams:
Hey, Shah, this is Geisha. I'll tell you know actually initiating that Public Safety Power Shutoff program a couple weeks ago was a very, very difficult decision. But from our point of view, it was a right one given the forecast that we have of extreme weather conditions. The real -- the real-time whether modeling that our team was doing and frankly field observations from our employees. So as we took a look at all that, there was no doubt in our mind that we have to initiate it and I would tell you if we are faced with similar conditions in the future, similar forecasts. We're going to do it again, it's as we've talked about this in the past, it's not a free play when you do a Public Safety Power Shutoff, there's clearly implications associated with doing right that, but as we look at the potential implications of another ignition associated with these extreme wildfire conditions? We've got to take the broader public safety. Sort of considerations in mind and that's what we've done. As far as litigation and whether it has merits, I'm not sure I mean, that's something that will have to play out over time, but we would do it again, we would absolutely do it again. I don't know John, if you want to comment on that.
John Simon:
Well, we haven't seen any claims from it yet and the CTC in the CTC will evaluate the reasonableness of our actions. We file the fairly detailed report on what that was. So we are pretty hopeful, confident that they're going to see what we saw when they read that and not overly fixated on claims at this point.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. And then, Geisha you've been you've been pretty visible as far as the somewhat of the shortcomings of 901, though, it was obviously a very good start. Are you going to sit out next year as far as looking for a fix around inverse and let the state kind of digest 901 and reasonableness and or are you going to pursue a fix next year?
Geisha Williams:
Well, I think that it's a -- inverse contradictions flawed, and it needs to be addressed as I've been -- as you said, very, very vocal about that. As we look at the next legislative session. I think one of the most important drivers or one of the most important activities in that will be the Blue-Ribbon Commission's work looking at wildfire issues broadly and including whether and how to socialize those costs. So we think the Blue-Ribbon Commission's work will be important and we will be engaged in that to the extent that we can be and that work is supposed to be completed in July, so will it be too late for the next legislative session? I'm not sure; it depends on how much work they've done, how much they've socialized, how much they've been able to engage with stakeholders and the legislators in particular. But we are certainly going to continue to advocate for a change, whether that be through legal court sort of system or through continued legislative process. We're going to continue to look for opportunities to change what we believe is a flawed doctrine, not really properly applied to investor owned utilities.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thanks, guys.
Geisha Williams:
You bet.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning, guys.
Geisha Williams:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson:
Just to follow-up on the cost of capital. Did I hear you correctly to say that it was kind of in the ballpark of what you power for transmission? That's your kind of thinking. I know there's going to be some fine tuning et cetera. But that's kind of a proxy we should be thinking about or could there be a change in equity ratio or ROE from there?
Jason Wells:
I think it's too early to be definitive, but clearly that filing with the FERC represents our current thinking on our current cost of capital and how we will approach the cost of capital proceeding with the CPC next spring. But it is early and they're going to be a number of factors that that may influence that filing.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then, just finally following up on the affordability question that's been asked, is there a metric or a particular class of customer that we should be thinking about as being particularly sensitive? Just how should we think about that I mean if it's -- if there's any sort of direction we have yet in terms of exam? I mean, what we're talking about, I assume it's not just average rates across the system or is it. Can you give us a little bit more of a feeling for what we should be thinking about sort of the thresholds that that might be really key?
Jason Wells:
Yes, thank you for the question. And we look at customer affordability through a number of different lenses and its sort of highest sort of view, we consider sort of rate increases in line with inflation. But we also do look at share of wallet or share of disposable income for the different communities we serve. And I think really where the pressure point largely lies is more in the Central Valley, those customers who are higher users of electricity feel more of the burden of cost increases. And so that's why we're trying to work very diligently in with a lot of rigor on continuing to drive not just affordability and our efficiency and our spend, but also focusing on working with a commission on the policies that may impact those communities as well.
Paul Patterson:
So could a rate design change, perhaps augment some of the issues or how should we think about the potential for rate design particularly alleviating some of the affordability issues versus actual cost cutting and what have you?
Jason Wells:
I think that, we look at these issues holistically. It's not just spent, it's the policies associated with that. I think the recent proposed decision on PCIA was a decision rather on PCIA, it was a good step in terms of minimizing the impact on some of those communities that are sort of move sensitive to rate increases. And I think as the commission looks at net energy metering. I think that's another opportunity for us to update our rate design to take more pressure off some of those communities that face the most direct pressure from customer -- rate increases.
Paul Patterson:
Great, excellent.
Operator:
This concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I'll now turn it back over to Chris Foster.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Chris. I'll just wrap this up. Thanks everyone for joining us this morning on the call, and please have a safe day. Thanks very much.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. John R. Simon - PG&E Corp. Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.
Analysts:
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the PG&E Corporation's Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of the call, with an opportunity for questions-and-answers at the end. At this time, I would like to pass the conference over to your host, Chris Foster with PG&E. Thank you and have a great conference. You may proceed, Mr. Foster.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Leesa, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Here with me today in the room are Geisha Williams, Nick Stavropoulos, Jason Wells, John Simon and Steve Malnight. Before I turn it over to Geisha, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's second quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes the reconciliation between non-GAAP earnings from operation and GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2017 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. While we provided the market with an update related to the October 2017 Northern California wildfires accrual just over a month ago, there has been a number of developments since then that I plan to cover today. But before we get going, I wanted to open by expressing my appreciation to Nick Stavropoulos for all his contributions as President of Utility and for his time, leading our gas business prior to that. And as you know, Nick has announced his intention to retire at the end of the third quarter. His leadership in driving strong safety performance in our gas organization cannot be overstated. It's thanks to his efforts and those of our employees that we've seen significant improvements in our gas operations. His collaborative approach internally and with external industry partners has consistently inspired our employees to embrace continuous improvement and seek out external best practices to model. Not only that, but the progress he led on our safety culture work and the incredible talent he helped recruit and develop are going to have an impact for years to come. So thank you, Nick. I know we will miss you very much and we all wish you well. Moving now to what we'll be covering on today's call. First, I'll detail some of the detrimental financial impacts that are occurring, due to the California's flawed policies in the extreme wildfire conditions that have become our new normal. I'll then provide a view of the legislative and legal landscape, including the solutions that our coalition continues to push for in Sacramento. And finally, I'll cover the operational progress we've made with our community wildfire safety program. It's been nearly 10 months since last October's devastating wildfires and our thoughts remain with the impacted communities as they recover. These communities include our customers, our workforce, our family and friends. We are there on the ground with operational and customer service team members helping them with the rebuild process. Now we've talked on past calls about the increased risk of extreme weather and wildfires that we're facing as a state, but we're experiencing that new normal now. Another fire season is upon us and we've already seen several sizable fires across the western United States and of course here in California. In the same way that we need to take action to make our states, communities and infrastructure more resilient, it's critical that we address our public policies. Yesterday's laws won't help our state deal with the impact of tomorrow's wildfires. Now, let me be clear here. The reforms we seek would not absolve investor-owned utilities from responsibility. Negligence claims against PG&E can still be pursued and the California Public Utilities Commission, which should retain the authority to investigate our conduct and reject any costs that are not just and reasonable. But where we acted reasonably, we cannot be put in the position of being held strictly liable for damages without the ability to recover those costs. The strict liability construct that is applied to investor-owned utilities in California today is unsustainable and is already having very real consequences. As we shared at the end of June, we took a $2.5 billion non-cash charge this quarter for 14 of the 16 Northern California wildfires for which Cal Fire has concluded its investigations. We're also seeing negative impacts in the insurance markets as providers are adjusting to the increased frequency and severity of wildfires across the state, coupled with the unsustainable strict liability standard. Jason will cover this in greater detail. But we are seeing significant increases in insurance premium costs as compared to just a few years ago. Additionally, we have experienced downgrades from the three major rating agencies. And S&P placed our sister utilities to the south on negative watch, pending the outcome of this legislative session. All of these outcomes have negative consequences for our customers and our state. As you know, the credit downgrades have a direct correlation on financing costs. And higher financing costs translate into higher customer bills. For every 100 basis point increase in our total cost of capital, it's the equivalent of a roughly $400 million increase to the costs that are borne by our customers. At the end of the day, our state's infrastructure investments require access to affordable capital. And as I've said before, while we will never sacrifice safety-driven work, as long as these flawed policies remain in place, we must carefully evaluate whether we can support our current level of capital expenditures. For example, we may need to pull back on some of the clean energy projects that are so critical to our state's ability to meet its bold clean energy goals. We were pleased to see that the California Public Utilities Commission approved our request to delay our 2020 general rate case application by up to four months to January 1, 2019 This will allow us time to thoughtfully consider and reassess our investment plan once we have greater clarity from any reforms that may come from – that may come about during this legislative session. We also recognize that our shareholders will require a return commensurate with the risk they are taking. As a result, if we don't see meaningful reforms from this legislative session, I expect that we will request an elevated cost of financing in our upcoming cost of capital proceeding to fully reflect the increased risk our company faces. Action is required now. So let me be really specific about the solutions our coalition is seeking in Sacramento. First, permanent reform to the strict liability standard under inverse condemnation is critical. Second, the legislature needs to directly address the effects of the climate driven 2017 wildfires on California investor-owned utilities. And finally, we need clarity around how our regulators use compliance with the operational standards to which we hold ourselves accountable. Many stakeholders are pleased to see the governor along with key legislative leaders recently form a Wildfire Preparedness and Response Conference Committee to consider potential solutions to these issues. And just yesterday, the Conference Committee held its first hearing which is an important first step. The issues raised yesterday related to safety and the prudent management concepts are critical. We would expect that the Committee will also consider the governor's outreach and proposal as part of their process. The governor's proposal as a stand-alone measure represents some progress on reforming strict liability, but it's insufficient. And it's important to keep in mind that this is just one element of a more comprehensive set of solutions that are needed. That's why we think it's appropriate that the Committee is tasked with considering a wide ranging set of preparedness, response, resiliency and other policy reforms. All of which will be important as they complete their work over the next few weeks. In parallel, our efforts on the legal front continue, where we are challenging inverse condemnation in the courts. Just last week, we filed a writ in the First District Court of Appeals to challenge the application of inverse condemnation, to the October 2017 wildfires. Finally I will now highlight some of the important operational work we've done as part of our Community Wildfire Safety Program. While we press for solutions on the legal and legislative fronts, we are not waiting. We are moving quickly to implement additional measures intended to further mitigate wildfire risk. Our Wildfire Safety operation center is up and running 24/7 during the height of the wildfire season. This center provides us with greater situational awareness across our system, including our high fire risk wildfire areas. It improves our ability to collaborate with third-party agencies such as Cal OES and Cal Fire. And it enables more timely responses to both existing wildfires and any potential threats. We've also procured two helicopters to assist operations and are making them available to support first responders with addressing wildfires. During late June and early July, these helicopters are utilized by Cal Fire, to support efforts for a number of fires including the Pawnee and County fires. We've been performing daily aerial fire detection patrols across thousands of miles of our service territory, to assist both state and federal agencies with early fire detection and response. Seven planes are flying daily routes over the next several months providing near real-time information to our Wildfire Safety Operations center. Our program to disable reclosers and circuit breakers has been expanded during the height of the wildfire season as yet another measure to further mitigate wildfire risk. And in situations with the most extreme fire conditions, we are prepared to proactively de-energize targeted circuits. While we view this as a last resort, it's a serious effort we'll execute on under specific circumstances. This of course would be done in consultation with CAL OES and other third party agencies. In fact all of the efforts I've described are done in close partnership with our communities and agencies. We've held over 250 in-person meetings with city and county officials, community organizations, customers, and others over the last several months. The safety of our communities and our workforce is our greatest responsibility. And we will continue to identify and implement programs to mitigate the increased wildfire risk that we face. Before I turn it over to Jason, I'll just close by saying how important the next month will be for energy providers, our customers, suppliers and the State of California. PG&E is committed to helping deliver on California's clean energies goal. And we recognize that investor-owned utilities are critical to meeting these aspirations. Time is of the essence though. With the recent formation of the Conference Committee, we believe the right process is in place to thoughtfully and comprehensively develop solutions to the complex problems faced by our state. We look forward to seeing solutions continue to come forth in the coming weeks. Of course, we will continue to keep you apprised as meaningful updates occur. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Jason to provide you with an update on the financials.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and good morning, everyone. Before we dive into the financial results, I'll first cover our insurance renewal for the policy period that runs from August 1 of this year through the end of July 2019. As Geisha mentioned, we have seen dramatic changes in the insurance market for California investor-owned utilities, with increased pressure on both price and capacity. Some carriers have significantly reduced their exposure by reducing limits or excluding events that were previously covered, and all have significantly increased their premiums. In response to this changing environment, we've taken an innovative approach to financial risk transfer with several different products. You can think about this as a stacked approach to addressing our needs. First, we plan to obtain traditional insurance to cover all perils, including events such as wildfires. For most that – from the most financially stable carriers. Second, we intend to increase coverage for third-party property damage due to wildfires through the reinsurance market. And third, we're actively exploring a capital market solution, via catastrophe or CAT bond which would be additive to the wildfire specific property damage coverage I just mentioned. In total, we are seeking to transfer approximately $1 billion to $1.5 billion of financial risk to the insurance and capital markets. We expect to have agreements for this coverage executed in the coming days. The cost of this coverage is expected to be roughly $350 million annually, which exceeds the amount that we're currently recovering in rates by around $300 million. Last month, the California Public Utilities Commission authorized our Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account or WEMA. In addition to claims and legal costs, this account enables us to track insurance premium costs that are incremental to what we're recovering in rates on a retroactive basis, to the end of July 2017. As a result, we've recorded a regulatory asset for $69 million this quarter related to incremental premium costs that we have been paying since last August, $32 million of which relates to premium costs from 2017, it has been recorded as an item impacting comparability. The regulatory asset also includes $37 million for incremental premium cost incurred in the first and second quarters of 2018. On an annualized basis, we expect to record roughly $80 million in incremental insurance costs as a regulatory asset in 2018 and 2019. Cost for premiums in excess of the approximately $50 million we are currently recovering in rates, as well as the $80 million we plan on recording as a regulatory asset will be included in earnings from operations until reset in the 2020 GRC. We do, however, intend to seek recovery for the full amount of premium costs paid in excess to the amount we're currently recovering from customers through the end of this GRC period. Moving now to our financial results for the quarter as shown on slide 5. Earnings from operations came in at $1.16 per share. Our GAAP loss including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. Costs associated with the Northern California wildfire has totaled roughly $2.2 billion pre-tax. There are several components included here that I will walk through. First, this includes the $2.5 billion charge that we have taken for 14 fires of 16 fires for which Cal Fire has concluded it's investigation. Second, it includes legal and other support costs of $46 million pre-tax. Third, we have determined that a portion of the Catastrophic Event Memorandum Account regulatory asset associated with cleanup and repair costs is no longer probable of recovery, resulting in a $40 million pre-tax write-off. Finally, we recorded $375 million pre-tax for expected insurance recoveries. Moving on, pipeline-related expenses were $12 million pre-tax for the quarter. We reported $10 million pre-tax for legal costs associated with the Butte fire. Finally, as I mentioned previously we recorded $32 million pre-tax for the 2017 component of expected recovery of insurance premiums above the amounts we're currently collecting in rates. Moving on, slide 6 shows a quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of $0.86 in the second quarter of last year to $1.16 for the second quarter of 2018. In the second quarter of 2017, there was a nuclear refueling outage with no similar outage in the second quarter of this year, resulting in $0.08 favorable. We were $0.06 favorable due to the resolution of several regulatory items. As previously mentioned, we recorded $37 million pre-tax or $0.05 for the expected recovery of insurance premium costs for the first six months of 2018. Timing of taxes was $0.05 favorable. Consistent with previous quarters, our taxes fluctuate with the variability in earnings throughout the year, but ultimately will net to zero for the full year. We were $0.04 favorable due to growth in rate base earnings, which includes $0.02 unfavorable related to the timing of the 2017 GRC decision. As we shared last quarter, we expect earnings from our rate base growth to be roughly $0.25 for the full year. Miscellaneous items accounted for $0.07 favorable. This is primarily driven by several timing-related items that are expected to reverse by year-end. We were $0.03 unfavorable due to the timing of the GRC cost recovery. In the second quarter of last year, as a result of the 2017 GRC decision, we recognized incremental revenues associated with capital costs such as depreciation and interest with no similar revenues in the second quarter of 2018. We were $0.01 unfavorable due to last year's settlement in our cost of capital proceeding, which resulted in a decrease in our authorized return on equity. We expect this to equal roughly $0.05 on an annualized basis. Share dilution result in a $0.01 unfavorable. Moving on to slide 7 to other factors affecting earnings from operations in the lower right quadrant. As I highlighted in the quarter-over-quarter comparison on the previous slide, we recorded $0.05 in the second quarter to reflect recovery of excess insurance premium costs for the first six months of the year. We expect to record a similar amount in the second half of 2018. While there is regulatory risk associated with recovery of these costs and the amounts will not represent the full cost of the premiums going forward, we do expect this to favorably impact our earnings from operations results for the year. Slide 8 shows our forecast of items impacting comparability. The forecast for pipeline-related expenses is consistent with what we shared on the first quarter call. The guidance range for Butte Fire-related costs net of insurance now reflects the high-end range of potential outcomes at $1.3 billion. The low end of the range is unchanged from last quarter at $1.1 billion. Estimated Northern California wildfire-related costs net of insurance reflects both a $2.5 billion charge for claims and expected insurance recoveries that we recorded this quarter. In addition, this reflects the $40 million write-off of cleanup and repair costs that were determined to be no longer probable of recovery. Slide 9 and slide 10 show CapEx and rate base for both 2018 and 2019. While we're not changing guidance today, as Geisha highlighted, our capital plans could be impacted if we do not see constructive legislative reform this session. So I would expect this to have more significant impacts in 2020 and beyond. Slide 11 outlines expected uses and sources of equity for the year. We have incorporated the charge we took for the Northern California wildfires net of insurance. The other items are consistent with what we shared last quarter. Through the second quarter, our internal programs have generated equity of roughly $80 million. Investment activity can vary throughout the year, but given our year-to-date results, internal programs may not generate the same levels of equity in 2018 that we've seen in recent years. The cash that we're conserving from the dividend suspension continues to provide an equity cushion that could be used to provide needed equity, including for liabilities resulting from the Northern California wildfires. As of June 30 of 2018, our equity ratio was 51.7%, resulting in a pre-tax cushion of roughly $700 million, relative to the 51% minimum that would require a capital structure waiver. Stepping back, as I shared in our call in June, the non-cash charge we recorded for the Northern California wildfires does not require the use of cash in the near-term. And as we look at future financing options, I will reiterate that the health of our balance sheet and the interest of our customers and shareholders will continue to be our top priorities. In closing, I will reinforce that we are aggressively pushing for the policy changes that Geisha covered. We understand the urgency of the issues before us and recognize the importance of favorable resolutions for both our customers and shareholders. So with that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Leesa. If you could open up the line for questions?
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I wanted to touch on the cost of capital point that you raised, I think it's pretty clear that the cost of capital has increased in the state. But at a high level, is it possible to talk through sort of the methodology or the key elements of the changing cost of capital that we've seen for California Utilities overall? Since we've seen numerous, very large wildfires. What kind of key sort of points or key elements of that cost of capital methodology should we sort of keep in mind as we're trying to assess where that cost of capital might go?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Stephen, this is Jason. Thanks for the question. It's clear that our cost of capital has significantly increased this year. I mean, I think probably easiest place to look is the cost of our debt which is up roughly 100 basis points and we know that equity costs are a multiple of that. I think as we look forward, we continue to push and believe that constructive reform and inverse condemnation it's important to keep our cost of capital cost effective for our customers. But in absence of legislative reform, I think we would have to consider the potential for future fire events. On what would be a sort of traditional foundation for the calculation of the cost of equity. And so in essence, I think, it's premature to quantify exactly how much but in absence of legislative reform, we could see significant increases in cost of capital that we could – that we would request next spring as part of the Cost of Capital proceeding.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. And then I guess I'm thinking about the large Tubbs Fire and possible outcomes. I guess one outcome is that there's a determination that your equipment was somehow involved but that there is no finding of a potential violation of vegetation management. So sort of this is the scenario in which you might have strict liability and yet not be negligent. In that kind of a situation, how do you think about financing such a large amount of capital that would be required? Absent legislation or then, I guess, we can also talk about possible legislative fixes but it's obviously a large amount of money. How would you think about that kind of scenario?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Stephen, this is Jason again. I think it's premature to speculate as to exactly sort of the financing plans under a hypothetical, Cal Fire still hasn't released its conclusion on Tubbs. But I will emphasize from a matter of principle standpoint is as I indicated in my opening comments, if we were to take a non-cash charge that dropped us below our required minimum equity ratio of 51%, we'd first file a capital structure waiver with the Commission. That capital structure waiver would be considered to be approved until acted upon. We think that the capital structure waiver is in the best interest of our customers. It provides the legislature and the courts time to deal with inverse condemnation. And so, there are a number of factors that would need to be resolved before we quantify and articulate the exact financing approach for the situation that you outlined.
Stephen C. Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yes. Very much understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
There's a lot going on today and I think I heard most of what you said, Geisha, at the beginning. But I think you said you felt that – you were encouraged by the governor's proposal on IC but it wasn't sufficient. I'm not sure if you meant you need to see other things as well or were you commenting on the specifics of that proposal?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. So I think that the governor's proposal is constructive but as I said earlier we do believe it's insufficient. We think it's just one of many things that need to be considered in a more comprehensive set of reforms relating to inverse condemnation, relating to the wildfire reforms that are needed in the state of California. So, it's an important input, I think, to the Conference Committee, but it's – I think a lot more work is necessary.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
What kind of things that it doesn't do would you like to see and my reading of it was that it looks like you would still have a lot of uncertainty, if the court don't decide until sort of some long time after an event, what your liability for it might be? I'm just curious what you're – what are the elements of what you'd like to see that are not there...
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yes, we've always been really pretty clear about our expectations, our – what we want to see accomplished in the legislature this year, and it's threefold. It's strict liability reform under Inverse Condemnation permanently. It's addressing the 2017 wildfire costs in the most cost effective manner possible. And it's also having clarity around reasonableness standards and really the whole cost recovery perspective from a CPUC proceeding basis. So, when I say that it's insufficient, it doesn't go far enough. And looking at inverse condemnation and the impact that it has on utilities like PG&E and the State of California.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Fair enough. And then, can I also ask on the – do you have any insight into the CPUC investigative timeline and when we might see those reports start to emerge and I guess within that, do you know if they have seen the reports into the fires with the violations and what would – I think they've said publicly that they expect to come out reasonably promptly after Cal Fire, but we've not seen anything yet?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Right, Jonathan, to answer the question directly, no. we really don't have any insights as to the timing of SED or more broadly the CPUC investigations on any of these fires. We're hoping that it's prompt. But, again, we have no insight as to what their thinking will be in terms of timing.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then, could I – Jason, I apologize for this. But I felt that it was moving quick. And then, you said that your insurance cost is now $300 million higher than what's in rates. And the overall package you're expecting to cost you $350 million annually. Did I hear that right?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's correct, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And then, there was – some of that you're despairing assuming recovery under the WEMA, but some you are not. Could you just resay that part.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. About $80 million of the amount that is in excess of what we're currently collecting in rates would be deferred as a regulatory asset in WEMA. The rest would fall to the bottom line. Although, I do want to emphasize, as I mentioned, that we will seek full recovery for those costs.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
The difference between $300 million and $80 million falls to the bottom line , that's on an annual basis. So you're also saying you expect it to be a positive earnings driver year-over-year. So is the difference then cost saving or something else or how do we reconcile that?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yes. So while we didn't provide you per share guidance for 2018, when we set our financial plan for the year, we did anticipate higher insurance costs.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
And when we set that plan, we set it with the objective of earning our authorized return on equity. The WEMA regulatory asset that we recognized for insurance cost this quarter is incremental to that.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So said another way, you had assumed that your insurance – the amount by which insurance cost would impact your numbers this year would be more than $220 million, effectively.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I think that's fair.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Good morning. I had a lot of the same questions. So, I apologize. These will be clarifications. So, the – on the insurance, the $350 million annually, is that a 2018 annualized number? So...
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. That'll be the cost from August 1 of 2018 through July 31 of 2019.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. So, you weren't absorbing in your plan all $350 million in 2018. It would have been, I guess, by 2019?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's correct.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
In theory? Okay. Okay. So in theory, that would be a 2019 pressure that you'll be absorbing or recovering by then. Got it. Okay. And then on the – Geisha, I apologize going back to the governor's plan being insufficient comment. Obviously, one way it's insufficient versus what you've stated is it does specifically doesn't address the 2017 fires. But could you just clarify outside of that issue, how that plan is insufficient? With maybe a little more detail?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. So, it's – it really doesn't address the third item that we typically have called for, which is having, in essence, pre-prudency review. Having an opportunity to look at clarifications around what constitutes being in compliance, what constitutes being a prudent manager, I think that's important. As we've seen from the San Diego Gas & Electric WEMA refusal I guess or, not accepting the rehearing, it's a big issue for us. And when you consider the fact that we're in this new normal, the fact that we have more wildfires it seems every year, very severe wildfires, we've got to look at this whole issue of wildfire reform, inverse condemnation reform, liability reform more broadly, more comprehensively. So that's why I believe that it's insufficient.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then one last question, I'm sure you heard the Cal Fire comments on Tubbs yesterday, I don't know if you have any color from your standpoint on those comments. And just how – if the Tubbs Fire report is not out by the end of the legislative session, what does that mean for getting legislation done?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well let me first talk about that. I mean, clearly, the Tubbs Fire is so significant, so devastating, but I believe that, and what we've been talking about at the legislature is that the reform that we're seeking is so much more than just Tubbs. It's so much more than just 2017. It's so much more than just PG&E. We find ourselves in this climate-driven extreme weather, facing wildfire after wildfire. The numbers that we're seeing already in California and in the Western United States are staggering. So this is going to be a perennial issue. And our focus in addressing legislation is about we've got to come up with new solutions, new legislation that deals with this new normal. So while – I don't know what the impact would be of Tubbs being delayed one way or the other. But I think the time for action is now as we're dealing with wildfire after wildfire today. And having clarity about what utility liability is going to be in the future is going to be so important to our ability to raise capital, to our ability to be a financial utility, to our ability to execute on our plan to achieve California's clean energy goal.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thank you. Go ahead.
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
It's John Simon. Just on another part of your question, we really don't have insight into the timing beyond what Cal Fire has said publicly. I did want to emphasize though that ultimately the question of the cause of the fires and PG&E's role if any in them is going to end up being an issue in the litigation. So, whenever Cal Fire says what its determination is, it's going to be their finding but it's not going to be dispositive of PG&E's liability. And we do expect the plaintiff's lawyers who have filed suits in San Francisco to pursue theories, whatever Cal Fire says. They've asserted two theories, the inverse theory that we've talked about before and negligence as well.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Hi. How are you? Sorry to beat a dead horse on this question on the governor's proposed language in the legislation. But my first question is as it pertains to his willingness to support guidance to the courts that would establish a proportionality standard, does that in and of itself eliminate strict liability if it were passed as written on a going forward basis?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Hi. Greg, this is Steve Malnight. I think as Geisha said, the governor's proposal clearly weighs in on some elements. You mentioned the elements he weighed in on, inverse reform; I think we're still fully vetting the specifics of that proposal. But I would just again highlight, as Geisha said, it is an input to the process that the Conference Committee is undergoing. They had their first hearing yesterday. I expect them to look at the governor's proposal along with proposals from many other parties. And I think we have to see what emerges from that process to really assess its impact on the issues that Geisha mentioned that California is facing.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. I get that you don't want to answer that question specifically. But from a direction and perspective in a philosophical direction, even if it's not worded exactly the way you would like, does it show that there is a way to move away from a strict liability standard that doesn't fundamentally have to go through a constitutional elimination of inverse?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Look, I'll say this, Greg. I think that the – as we've asserted, reforming inverse does not require a constitutional amendment. It can be done by the legislature. I think we heard that in the hearing yesterday from multiple parties who testified in the hearing. And I think the governor's proposal puts forward a methodology to accomplish that as well. So, I think the issue of reforming inverse, as we've said, is something the legislature can take on and needs to take on in order to really address the challenges that California faces.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Appreciate that one. One other question, Jason, I know you also didn't want to opine as to just some sort of specific financing path. Should you wind up having to have significant liabilities for the fires, but ultimately if you're compelled to take charges associated with the payment of fire claims that are unrecoverable, should we assume that in the end, that they'd be finance – that you'd need to replenish those write-downs with equity? That there may be multiple financing paths over time, that allow you to bridge that. But in the end, write-downs associated with those theoretical costs, should they be incurred, would they have to be financed with equity?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Greg, thanks for the question. I do think that you summed it up there, in the end, ultimately the equity needs will need to be financed with some form of equity. But there could be multiple paths on an interim basis before issuing that incremental equity to fill our equity ratio at the utility.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Thank you, sir. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys. Just following up on that question, if there is, let's say, securitization with AB 33 that goes through, you have a bridge, at least for some time, until you have a decision on what happens around prudency reviews at CPUC. But if you win some of these court battles around the Supreme Court, California Supreme Court, which kind of have a view around whether maybe you're liable under inverse, would that result in no equity need? Or could that be the upside case where securitization almost bridges to a solution on the court side?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Praful, I think you're highlighting the complexity of the situation why it's hard to commit exactly to a path. There's – we're pushing forward on reform at the legislative level. We're challenging inverse in the court system. There are a lot of different paths that can take. And so, what we can commit to in the near term is that if we fall below the equity – minimum equity ratio at the utility because of a non-cash charge, we are committed to filing a capital structure waiver at the Commission to mitigate financing needs so that we can fully pursue resolution under those multiple paths.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Understood. But securitization at least in the near term is a bridge to some other legal solution. Is that a fair way to think of that?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
It's possibly. I mean AB 33 as currently constructed would provide a mechanism to pay claims. Essentially today, it would give the Commission the opportunity to disallow cost down the road which if disallowed would require a different form of financing at that point.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah. Got you. Fair enough. And then secondly, on the Senate Bill 901 and all the language on what the governor supporting as well, it seems like Senate Bill 901 actually has language in it right now as it's drafted right now that kind of addresses IC at least to some extent. Is that something that you would see as a potential path forward in terms of what you could see final shape around addressing IC or how are you kind of thinking about with all these bills floating around, how do you kind of see that progressing given we're coming down to crunch time at this time?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Hi. Thanks. This is Steve Malnight again. So, just to kind of clarify the process. So Senate Bill 901 was amended really just to set sort of a scope of work that the Conference Committee would take on. It really, as of now, is a bit of a shell and was moved into the Conference Committee for their action. So, what we would expect to see is that as that the Conference Committee debate solutions and puts them forward in legislative language, they would be amended into 901, and then the Committee would consider 901 in total and pass it back to both chambers for a vote. So I think what you see in 901 today is really not what it will be in the end. It's really just – it's a shell with some clarification of the scope that the Committee intends to take on.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. But so I guess within the next few weeks, by the end of August, we're expecting that to kind of take shape in terms of addressing IC in 901 or do you expect another bill like 1088 or something else?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
No. I think the current expectation is that the Conference Committee will likely be the primary source of potential solutions. That's what it was formed to do. They will be debating that and putting it in 901. As you mentioned, the session ends at the end of August. So as Geisha said, the next month is really critical. But the Committee was formed really to do this work and we're looking forward to working with them through the month to hopefully see the solutions emerge in 901.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
I mean, obviously, we're really pleased that there's a Conference Committee where there is laser-like focus I think in terms of looking at inverse, looking at wildfire preparedness and response more broadly. I think it's the right approach to tackle such a complex issue as what we're dealing with here in California.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks, Geisha. Thanks, Jason, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good morning, everyone.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. So perhaps just to clarify Praful's last set of questions there. Just with respect to the shell of 901 and obviously you've got the AB 33 bill out there. I mean how do you think about this being sort of multiple parallel bills addressing various avenues and should we expect that to be the case or as the Committee continues here would you expect that different parts of the various proposals to kind of come together and a kind of a singular 901 bill to carry, the day just to clarify the last question?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, we are advocating strongly that some level of looking at 2017, the AB 33 bill as it currently stands, we would love to see that moved into the Conference Committee. So, as they're looking at comprehensive reform they're looking not just at prospective but also looking at 2017 because it was just so, so substantial. If however AB 33 doesn't move into the Conference Committee, there's still an approach for more of a traditional legislative process in California. But I would have to say it's harder. It's more complicated. So, again our focus is on making the work of the Conference Committee as comprehensive as possible to deal with this very complex set of issues, while at the same time working in parallel to continue to advance the good work of AB 33.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. And while we're on the subject of AB 33, just to kind of understand, obviously, we want to look at retroactive and provide a framework. How do you think about the notion of prudency down the road and a refund scenario under that AB 33 legislation if you can kind of comment around that?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, the current way that AB 33 is sort of set up, it's explicit about two things. First, the Commission must approve that the initial advice filing, it has to ensure lower cost for customers. And second, it provides for a reasonable review for all the wildfire costs incurred. So that if the CPUC determines that we did not act justly or prudently, then those – there will be disallowances and those disallowances will be shareholder-funded.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. All right. Excellent. And then maybe this is turning back to the more financial side of the house. Can you talk a little bit more about financing avenues? I know you alluded to it a little bit earlier in the questions, but sort of cumulatively potential cash outflows to fund some of these, let's call them one-time type efforts here, how do you think about capital raising efforts and sort of preemptively putting in place financing vehicles to any extent? I mean, obviously, you're, to a certain extent, doing that with these CAT bonds and in a certain context but more broadly, if you will.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Thanks, Julien. This is Jason. Obviously, liquidity is clearly a focus for us. The $2.5 billion dollars of debt that we raised at the utility late in 2017 was intended to largely address our ongoing financing needs for 2018 and 2019, to give us the flexibility to work through the complexities that we've outlined. As we've said, uncertainty with respect to legislative reform, the uncertainty with respect to the timing of the judicial challenges of inverse condemnation, create a challenging environment for incremental financing. That's why – I'll come back to our commitment at least early on if our non-cash – if we fall below the minimum equity ratio from a non-cash charge we will file a capital structure waiver. If that is denied, ultimately, we will look at other tools and we will seek to balance the balance sheet health of the company, but as well protect the interest of both our customers and shareholders. And I think just given all of the uncertainty it's hard to be any more specific than that at this time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. So it seems like that you wouldn't necessarily be seeking to put much more preemptively in place beyond the specific liquidity and debt that you put in place last year.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We have a few short-term debt maturity floating rate notes that we'll have to address. But as I mentioned, the debt offering at the Utility late in the fourth quarter largely met our debt financing needs for 2018 and 2019.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. All right. I'll leave it there. Thank you all very much. Best of luck.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. And this may be a John Simon question, but I'm just curious. How do you balance the litigation paths that are outstanding and as you show in your slides may take some time, a year or two or so versus the claims that are coming in and the process and timeline for either settling or paying out claims, especially claims that are more inverse condemnation claims and not necessarily negligence claims? And there are obviously two suits outstanding challenging inverse condemnation, how do you balance that? And how do you think about just the cadence of things?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Let me take a run at it, Michael, and others here will jump in if I've sort of missed the spirit of the question. You're right to note we've got many trains running down many paths. Just timing-wise, our appeals on inverse condemnation are going to work their way through. The appeals we have right now are discretionary. If the courts accept them, then we have them pending in two different places, then you're looking at a timeline of nine months to a year and a half to deal with those. The litigation that's filed on the fires under the theories negligence and inverse, they're very early, early stages. We don't even have a case management conference yet, but that's coming up in a month. There's no trial date set, discovery is early. So, that's going to run its course over years. It's early. And then you look at settling claims. If we were to do that, it's really early to talk about that now and here's why. We don't have the evidence that Cal Fire is relying on, we don't have most of their reports. It's really difficult to evaluate settlements and timing of settlements when we're in that position. And so back to your question, we're pursuing aggressively our defenses on a number of fronts. We really want to understand Cal Fire's thinking. We don't understand it right now because we don't have anything substantive from them to talk about, sort of their alleged – their claims that PG&E may have alleged state law in its practices. We don't have some nifty balance to thread needles on all of that. What we are doing is making every argument we can, defending vigorously and moving ahead. So, I don't have a great answer to that question, I'm afraid, but that's where we are.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then a question totally unrelated to wildfires. How do you think about the cadence or trajectory of capital spend? Just on core kind of rate base items. When you think about all of the dockets that are coming up, meaning the GRC, the TO cases, the GT&S case. You've got a lot going on in the regulatory arena, that'll have a significant impact on that $6 billion CapEx number for 2019 and beyond. How do you think about kind of the range that could be around that level?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Michael, this is Jason. As we've talked about in the past, while we haven't necessarily quantified capital spend beyond 2019, the pipeline for projects is extensive. We have an aging system that requires significant investment at a time when we need to modernize our grid for new technologies that our customers are demanding of us. And so, the pipeline for capital investment is very strong. But as Geisha and I mentioned in our opening remarks, to the extent that we don't see constructive legislative reform of inverse condemnation this year, we may have to pull back on some of those – some of that aspect of spending. Because it just wouldn't be in our customers' best interest to finance some of those projects at the current cost of capital that we're experiencing. So right now, it's hard to quantify beyond what we provided here, but I think as we get into the third quarter, we should be able to provide you more details.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And can you remind me, just what's the timing for the filing? I know you got the four-month delay on the core GRC. But what's the timeline for the other cases?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We will file the Transmission Owner rate case before the end of this year. We have the four-month delay on the GRC. We have hearings for our GT&S rate case starting kind of mid-September timeframe. I think those are probably the three critical sort of cases for the remainder here of 2018.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, Jason. Much appreciated.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Turnure of JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. I just have a clarification on the last question on the court process. Is it fair that basically if you are granted your request at the Supreme Court in the Butte case that it really will not have an immediate impact on the Butte case or the Nor-Cal case at the lower court?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
I think – Christopher, it's John. I think it will take some time, if the Supreme Court hears the appeal, then there'll be a process to brief the appeal, to argue the appeal and then for the court ultimately to decide the appeal one way or the other. So that will take some time. I can't predict the exact amount of time. The impact won't be immediate. It will be once the appeal's thoroughly reviewed, heard and argued and all the rest. So, it could be 6 months to 18 months, some sort of timeframe like that. It's really hard to predict.
Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And as you said during that time, though lower court proceedings continue basically unaffected.
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
That's right. That's my understanding.
Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then one other question on the Cal Fire testimony from yesterday, I'm wondering if in all your experience with Cal Fire investigations, Butte, other fires, et cetera, how frequently you've been aware of equipment being sent to third parties for review?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Really I can't comment on that because I don't know one way or the other what Cal Fire may choose to do when it's doing its work to investigate a fire.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
We don't have a lot of visibility to the inner workings of Cal Fire's investigative process. So, we don't know if this is highly unusual or something that they do more regularly. Really, there's no transparency on that.
Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Got it. But you haven't typically seen that in the past?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Not that I'm aware of.
Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates. Please proceed.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. How are you doing?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
So, I appreciate your comments, all of which make a lot of logical sense. And I guess what my question sort of is from listening to the meeting, it was sort of highlighted during the public comments which were basically a lot of lobbyists it seemed to me. Was this substantial opposition from the insurance industry and municipalities regarding inverse condemnation. It seems like there's been this sort of ecosystem that's kind of developed there. And I'm just wondering whether or not when you look at the legislative calendar and everything else, whether or not it's possible to focus on recovery of cost, the prudency stuff that you're asking about. The wildfire mitigation being recovered and then perhaps leaving inverse condemnation to the side, in an effort to get something through that addresses sort of the immediate financial issues that you guys are going to be confronting, as opposed to what appears to be what might be some significant opposition that starts to develop from powerful insurance and other industries. Basically trying to perhaps derail the process. Do you follow what I'm saying? In other words, if there's some way of sort of addressing sort of some issues immediately, as opposed to just it maybe too big a lift. To address what – I agree with you, what really should be addressed. But maybe sort of just difficult in the current calendar environment that you got.
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Hi, Paul. This is Steve Malnight. And I had just a couple of comments on that. I think – first of all, it is very apparent, that these issues are significant and meaningful to many groups and constituencies across California. That's completely consistent with what we've been saying, that these – the reforms that are needed, the comprehensive reforms, are really critical. I think you can look to the statements that have come out previously from the governor and the legislative leaders on the need for action and the need for urgent action. You can look to the calling of the Conference Committee, which is an unusual step legislatively. And see within those the critical importance of this work and the importance for the legislature to weigh in. I think it's also important to remember that this work didn't just start with the Conference Committee or the hearing yesterday, that was an important milestone. But obviously there've been a lot of discussions. There've been bills that have been put in front of the legislature and have been debated and worked on. So at this point, we still are continuing to advocate for comprehensive reforms, because all of these issues are interrelated. The ability for us to both compensate victims and make sure our victims and the communities that suffered from these fires in 2017 can be made whole and rebuild. The ability to keep our customer bills as low as possible going forward and the ability for us to have the financial certainty to continue to invest in the system. Those are the critical challenges that face California right now. And we continue to believe that the Conference Committee has got the right scope, they've got the right membership and the right process and we can deal with this this year. So, we're going to continue to advocate for that as we move forward and I think that that is possible for us to take on. I can't speculate on the outcomes and we'll continue to work our way through this process. But at this point, I think that's how I sort of view the next month.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Paul. And, Leesa, thank you for hosting the call today. Everyone, I know we're at time, so I just want to thank everyone for joining us this morning and have a safe day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.
Analysts:
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.. Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA LLC
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation First Quarter 2018 Conference Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of the call, with an opportunity for question-and-answers at the end. At this time, I would like to pass the conference over to your host to, Chris Foster. Thank you and have a great conference. You may proceed, Mr. Foster?
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Lisa. And thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Geisha Williams, I want to remind you that our discussion today will focus on forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's first quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes the reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our Quarterly Report on Form Q-10 (sic) [Form 10-Q] that will be filed with the SEC later today, and the discussion of risk factors that appear there and in the 2017 Annual Report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide an overview of our initiatives to drive comprehensive, operational and policy solutions that address extreme weather-driven events, and the impact they're having on our communities, our company, and our state. I'll also be covering how we continue to advance our business strategy and position PG&E for the future, with examples that represent our vision of meeting the challenges of climate change while providing affordable energy for all of our customers. And finally, we'll close with Jason, walking us through the financial results for the quarter. Nearly seven months have passed since the devastating wildfires that impacted our North Bay communities. Our thoughts continue to be with our customers, employees, families and friends who were affected. Nothing is more important to PG&E than the safety of our communities and workforce. And as I will speak to shortly, we are collaborating on a number of fronts to better prepare the community that we're privileged to serve in the face of future potential wildfires. There was growing evidence that these wildfires may become more destructive in future years, and we must adapt. California investor-owned utilities are responding to this new normal. We have long been leaders in helping the state reduce its carbon footprint, and now we must lead in climate adaptation and resilience as well. Our efforts include adapting our operations and infrastructure to changing climate conditions, as well as supporting efforts at the local level to make the communities we serve more resilient. Today, I'll cover what PG&E is specifically doing to tackle these complex issues. We continue to aggressively pursue strategies that address needed policy reforms for the near and long-term, while also enhancing our operations. On the operational front, we've initiated an enhanced multi-year program to harden our system and increase its resiliency. We're also working with regulators and other stakeholders to enhance procedures in high fire threat areas. On the legal front, we're addressing what we strongly believe is the inappropriate application of inverse condemnation to investor-owned utilities in the California Courts. And finally, we continue to advocate with leaders and policymakers across the state on comprehensive legislative solutions. I'll focus first on the legislative front where a coalition of policymakers and other stakeholders are emphasizing the broader reforms needed to address issues such as forest management practices, wildland-urban interface, insurance availability, and utility liability among others. We think this is the right approach because there is no simple fix. To that point, we were pleased to see the joint statement from Governor Brown and a bipartisan group of key legislative leaders who, in their words, will be partnering on solutions this year that will make California more resilient against the impacts of natural disasters and climate change. These leaders called up five key areas that addressed the issues our state is facing, including the need to update liability rules and regulations for utility services. It's important to have policies in place to provide a sustainable financial future for the state energy companies which is why we believe the Legislature needs to reform inverse condemnation. As a reminder, California is an outlier in applying inverse condemnation liability to events caused by an investor-owned utility's equipment. This means that if the utility's equipment is found to have been a substantial cause of the damage in an event like a wildfire, even if the utility has followed established inspection and safety rules, the utility may be liable for property damages and attorneys' fees associated with that event. So, in essence, this is a strict liability approach that presumes a commensurate cost recovery path and for investor-owned utilities that just isn't true. We strongly believe this is not the right approach for our customers or our shareholders. We also are encouraged to hear the members of the California State Senate and Assembly share their perspectives on the challenges that inverse condemnation presents for investor-owned utilities and the ripple effects it will have across the state. They recognize that access to affordable capital is essential to funding utility infrastructure. This includes investments at scale that support the state's clean energy goals and enable the safety and the reliability of our system. It also includes funding that is necessary to transform and harden our system in the face of climate change. We applaud the urgency to resolve these critical issues from both the governor and members of the Legislature and appreciate their commitment to timely and comprehensive solutions for all Californians. While we continue to work through the details with legislative leaders over the course of the session which ends in August, we seek common ground on many of the issues that have been raised and we look forward to collaborating on solutions. I want to reiterate, however, that it is imperative that these policy reforms comprehensively address the full range of issues that are before us. And that of course includes inverse condemnation. I'll transition now to actions we've taken in the courts. We continue to believe that the CPUC's denial of cost recovery in San Diego Gas & Electric Electric Wildfire Expense Memorandum Account request presents compelling new evidence. Investor-owned utilities cannot unilaterally raise rates without authorization from the regulator. And this fact alone undermines the entire premise of inverse condemnation. Earlier this week, the trial court denied our motion challenging inverse condemnation on the 2015 Butte Fire case. The court stated it believe it is bound by prior higher-level court decisions that have applied inverse condemnation to investor-owned utilities. Notably the court also acknowledged the importance of the issues we raised and stated that the appellate courts are the appropriate place to consider them. We intend to promptly file a request for the Court of Appeals to hear our case. The court also suggests that the Legislature considered the important public policy issues that are motion raised. We wholeheartedly agree. Moving now to the Northern California wildfire cases, in March, we asked the court to dismiss the inverse condemnation causes of action in the 2017 Northern California wildfire cases that have been filed. We look forward to hearing the judge's decision in this case, but we again recognize that the issue of whether inverse condemnations should apply to investor-owned utilities likely will be decided by the appellate courts. To the extent the outcomes are not in our favor as this issue was heard in various courts, we will continue to challenge inverse condemnation through all available legal avenues. Ultimately, we are fighting for a reasonable outcome not only for PG&E, but also the customers who we serve and the people of California. At the same time, we're working with the California Public Utilities Commission and our communities on additional precautionary measures to enhance and strengthen our system. These efforts will build on the substantial work we have done across our system to proactively respond to the drought conditions that we have faced over the last few years. We have more than doubled our annual spend to manage vegetation from roughly $190 million in 2013 to $440 million in 2017 and we increased the frequency of our patrols, particularly in high fire threat areas, but the new normal needs new solutions. To that end, we recently announced our Community Wildfire Safety Program. While significant progress has been made since the wildfires last October, we view this as a multi-year program that will evolve over time. Our program has three core areas of focus and I will cover a few highlights this morning. First, we are bolstering our wildfire prevention and emergency response efforts in coordination with first responders, public safety agencies, and other community partners. This includes establishment of a wildfire safety operation center that was opened last month. This center monitors wildfire risks and coordinates any necessary prevention and response efforts to first responders. And we've brought on our own wildfire response teams to protect critical utility infrastructure, assist crews working in high fire threat areas and to support first responders in the event of a fire. We have also procured two helicopters that will support our wildfire response teams when wildfires occur and have plans to procure two more in 2019. Of course, this will all be under the direction of Cal Fire. To enhance our weather forecasting and modeling capabilities, we're targeting to add roughly 200 new PG&E-owned weather monitoring stations in 2018 with more to come in future years. These stations will provide enhanced visibility of potential wildfire threats across our system. Second, we will be working with our communities on additional precautionary measures to help reduce the threat of wildfires and keep our communities safe. For example, we're executing on an even more expansive vegetation management program. We were pleased to see the CPUC adopt new regulations that require increased distances between our wires and the surrounding vegetation. We're also creating fire safety zones in high fire threat areas. This means we'll be clearing vegetation from at least 15 feet on either side of our power line. This not only reduces wildfire risk but also enables easier access for first responders in the event a wildfire occurs. In addition, we are refining and executing on protocols to proactively turn off electric power where extreme fire conditions are occurring. This isn't without risk, of course, and will involve very close coordination with our communities. Third, on a longer-term basis, we're working to harden the electric system and integrate new technology. This means we'll be investing in stronger power lines, with conductors that are more resistant to vegetation, and we'll be replacing wood poles with non-wood poles in the highest fire threat areas. As we look down the road, we'll be working closely with our communities to explore how we can expand the use of microgrids to help improve both reliability as well as resilience in the event of a major natural disaster. Our plan includes partnering with our communities to establish energy resilience zones such as at designated hospitals and schools to provide support in the event of a widespread outage. As an example, in Humboldt County, we've already partnered with members of the communities to integrate a microgrid into a designated Red Cross evacuation center. These energy-resilient zones will provide support not only in response to wildfire threats, but also other natural disasters including earthquakes. Finally, we also appreciate the CPUC's recognition that climate change is an issue that is incredibly impactful to our business. In fact, they recently an Order Instituting Rulemaking that aims to move beyond just climate change prevention and to integrate adaptation into relevant proceedings at the Commission. This couldn't be more timely, and we look forward to partnering with them on this important work over the course of the next year. As I think about this effort of the Commission, as well as the execution of our own Community Wildfire Safety Program, there is a natural tie to risk management. The muscle we have built in the last several years to proactively measure and mitigate risk has been instrumental as we've developed this program. Last fall, we filed our Risk Assessment Mitigation Phase or RAMP for our 2020 General Rate Case filing. The purpose of the RAMP filing is to demonstrate that energy utilities are placing the safety of both the public and their workforce as a top priority in General Rate Case proceedings. Last month, the CPUC Safety Enforcement Division or SED issued a comprehensive report on our plan as reflected in the filing. We appreciate their positive feedback on several aspects of our plan, as well as their suggestions on how to make it even better over time. SED specifically recognized our work to address climate resilience from both a mitigation and adaptation perspective. They also highlighted our collaborative approach and the level of engagement as we developed our risk models. Additionally, they classified our quantitative modeling techniques as state of the art. In this time of increased risk, as we face greater threats from climate change, I'm pleased with the progress we've made. And as SED also noted, we have raised the bar for future RAMP filings. I would like to transition now to some additional operational updates as we continue to make steady progress across our business in a variety of areas. First, I'm happy to share that nearly 80% of the electricity delivered to our customers in 2017 was carbon free with one third coming from qualified renewables. But we know that more can be done and we continue to see opportunities to partner with the state on achieving further carbon reductions. To that point, we believe transportation is the next sector of the economy to tackle. If you include the fossil fuel refining process, transportation accounts for 50% of greenhouse gas emissions in the state. Simply put, California cannot achieve its greenhouse gas reduction goals if we don't tackle transportation, which is why the Governor recently announced a goal of getting 5 million zero-emission vehicles on California roads by the year 2030. Right now, we've got about 350,000 in the state, less than a tenth of that target. The potential growth curve is tremendous. And we must think about how we can do things differently to hit that objective. We're positioning ourselves to play a significant role by investing in the infrastructure necessary to enable EV adoption and address consumer range anxiety. Energy companies like ours are uniquely positioned to help lower barriers to EV adoption. We can build public charging infrastructure, design rates that reduce the cost of charging, administer rebates, educate customers, and spur EV manufacturers to increase production through our own fleet purchases. PG&E is engaged on all these fronts. We were pleased with most elements of the recent proposed decision that will allow us to move forward with our plans to deploy charging stations for medium and heavy-duty vehicles and we continue to make strong progress on our program to install 7,500 chargers for light duty vehicles which is by the way, the largest approved investor-owned public charging program in the country. Combined, we will be spending several hundred million dollars in the coming years as we begin to build out the charging grid of the future. This is a period of dynamic change for our industry and we continue to push the envelope to meet the evolving needs of our customers and our communities. Another area where we continue to see change is, of course, in the growth of Community Choice Aggregators or CCAs. California law requires that customers have a choice of energy providers. As some communities opt to procure their own energy from third parties, a portion of the cost of the energy that PG&E procured on their behalf is falling to our remaining bundled customers. Right now, when a community opts to take energy from another provider, the customers that depart only pay roughly 65% of the cost that we procured on their behalf. That leaves our bundled customers to bear the remaining 35% in addition to their own share. While we support customer choice, their cost allocation must be addressed in accordance with the law. To that end, we, along with Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, proposed a new mechanism to allocate these costs. Our proposal was intended to ensure parity for all of our customers. Ultimately, if it's not affordable, it's not sustainable. And revising the cost allocation rules for CCA customers is key to our affordability efforts. In summary, while we navigate the challenges posed by climate change, we also continue our efforts to support California's place as a global clean energy leader. PG&E has a long history of effective coalition building and partnering on complex issues to help move California forward. And I'm optimistic that we, as a state, can come up with the solutions needed to continue our progress. With that, I'll turn it over to Jason.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and good morning, everyone. Before I cover our results for the quarter, I'd first like to address our 2018 guidance. Given the continued uncertainty related to the 2017 Northern California wildfires, we will not be providing 2018 earnings per share guidance on today's call. And as I shared previously, we will revisit this as we have better clarity with the potential liabilities related to the 2017 Northern California wildfires. Consistent with last quarter, we will be providing guidance on 2018 items impacting comparability, CapEx and rate base for both 2018 and 2019. I want to emphasize that our guidance for these items assumes no additional impact from the Northern California wildfires beyond what we're providing on today's call. This morning, I'll be covering our first quarter results as well as an update on the estimated impacts from tax reform. Slide 6 shows our results for the first quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $0.91. GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability were also shown here. Costs associated with the Northern California wildfires totaled $21 million pre-tax and primarily reflect legal costs. Pipeline related expenses were $10 million pre-tax for the quarter. We also recorded legal expenses for the Butte Fire, net of insurance recoveries from our contractor of $5 million pre-tax. Moving on, slide 7 shows a quarter-over-quarter comparison from earnings from operations of a $1.06 in the first quarter of last year and $0.91 this year. We were $0.08 favorable due to growth in rate base earnings. $0.02 of this increase simply reflects the timing of the 2017 GRC decision, which didn't allow recognition of the incremental authorized revenues until the second quarter of 2017. We'll see this small timing differential burst next quarter. With the incremental rate base, we're recording as a result of tax reform, we expect earnings from our rate base growth to be roughly $0.25 for the full year, slightly higher than 2017. Moving on in the first quarter of last year, we incurred incremental capital cost such as depreciation and interest without offsetting revenues also due to the timing of the 2017 GRC decision. This is driving a $0.03 favorable variance in the first quarter of this year which will reverse next quarter. We were $0.08 unfavorable due to the tax impact from share-based compensation in 2017. We recorded a $0.06 benefit due to favorable performance in our long-term incentive plan in the prior year. Conversely, with lower performance in 2017, we recorded a tax expense of $0.02 in the first quarter of 2018. We also had a nuclear refueling outage this quarter that contributed $0.06 unfavorable quarter-over-quarter. In 2017, our refueling outage was in the second quarter. Timing of taxes was $0.05 unfavorable. Consistent with previous quarters, our taxes fluctuate with the variability in earnings throughout the year, but ultimately will net to zero for the full year. Following the settlement in our cost to capital proceeding last year, we are seeing a $0.01 unfavorable variance due to the decrease in our authorized return on equity. We expect this to equal roughly $0.05 on an annualized basis. Share dilution resulted in a $0.01 unfavorable. And finally, miscellaneous items accounted for $0.05 unfavorable. This includes a number of timing-related items as well as in charge this quarter related to environmental obligations at a former electric generating site, which we've just begun remediation work on. Moving on to slide 8. Our assumptions for 2018 are largely unchanged from what we shared last quarter with the exception of a shift in rate base, which I'll cover shortly. While we're not providing earnings per share guidance for 2018, on an earnings from operations basis, our objective is to earn our CPUC authorized 10.25% return on equity across the enterprise. Slide 9 shows our forecasted items impacting comparability. These are consistent to what we shared on our fourth quarter call. As a reminder, our range for Northern California wildfire related costs, net of insurance, excludes any potential impacts related to claims. On slide 10, we provided a few updates to the expected impacts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. At the end of March, we filed a proposed implementation plan for the CPUC to incorporate the impacts of tax reform and customer rates. As we work through the details, we identified adjustments to the preliminary estimates that we had shared on our fourth quarter call that I'll cover briefly. First, we anticipate a slightly lower initial annual benefit to customers. We had previously estimated that the annual revenue reduction would be approximately $500 million that we now expect it to be roughly $450 million. This difference is timing related and is expected to eventually flow back to customers in future periods. Second, while we still anticipate rate base growth to be higher by approximately $800 million by 2019, roughly $200 million that we previously expected to be added in 2018 has now shifted to 2019. This was driven by several factors such as a slightly longer amortization period for certain excess deferred taxes. Third, while our cumulative financing needs of about $400 million remain unchanged over the next two years as a result of tax reform, we've asked the CPUC for flexibility in the timing of when we implement these adjustments in rates. As a result, our financing needs may be more heavily weighted towards 2019. Finally, our guidance reflects best expectations today. But ultimately the CPUC and FERC will need to review our proposal and authorize how and when tax reform impacts are implemented. With that said, as I shared last quarter, tax reform is going to provide long-term benefits to our customers and also drive higher rate base growth, financing needs and earnings. We look forward to working with the CPUC and FERC on an implementation plan that benefits all parties. Slides 11 and 12 show our expected CapEx and rate base for both 2018 and 2019. Our capital expenditure plans through 2019 are unchanged from what we shared last quarter, with planned spend of approximately $6.3 billion in 2018 and roughly $6 billion in 2019. Our rate base forecast also remains consistent with what we shared last quarter, with the exception of the $200 million shift in incremental rate base related to tax reform from 2018 to 2019. Rate base growth is expected to be roughly 7.5% to 8% annually from 2017 through 2019. Slide 13 shows how we're thinking about uses and sources of equity in 2018 and 2019. In 2017, we had shared that we expected our equity needs for 2018 and 2019 to be largely met through our internal programs, which have generated approximately $300 to $400 million annually over the last several years. However, with our dividend suspended, the dividend reinvestment program has been halted, so we expect a decrease in the amount of equity these programs will generate. The dividend reinvestment program has historically provided about $60 million annually. Additionally, through the first quarter, our internal programs have generated equity of roughly $35 million, while investment activity can vary throughout the year, our internal programs may not generate the same levels of equity that we've seen in recent years. The other factors that we've outlined here are largely unchanged from last quarter. The cash that we're conserving from the dividend suspension continues to provide an equity cushion that could be used to provide needed equity including for any potential liabilities that results from the Northern California wildfires. In closing, I want to reiterate what Geisha said. We're actively working to address inverse condemnation policy while executing operational plans that provide for improved climate resiliency. And the board remains committed to revisiting the dividend decision as greater clarity is reached with regard to potential liability stemming from the 2017 Northern California wildfires. Finally, as I've shared with you before, we'll keep you apprised of the progress as material facts unfold. With that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good afternoon, good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Stephen.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Geisha, you mentioned in your prepared remarks the need to directly address inverse condemnation. I think the investor community very much understands the seriousness of that issue. Without speaking for the Legislature, but just broadly, is that well appreciated at the Legislature? Is it your sense that that's – it's understood that that is a very significant issue and needs to be addressed? Is there a broad understanding, or is there still more education to be done on that?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks for the question, Steve. Let me just start by saying what we've been doing. We've been spending a great deal of time educating a lot of the different stakeholders in the state on how truly flawed the application of inverse condemnation is to investor-owned utilities. And I do believe that that message is resonating and is well understood. And that's why we were so encouraged to see the Governor and the bipartisan leaders come out in March announcing their intention to develop comprehensive solutions this year to really address the climate change issues and how they impact California. And of course, we were particularly encouraged to see the liability rules and regulations for utility service actually called out as an area requiring updating. So, we've shared many times with all of you and of course, all the various stakeholders, inverse condemnation is a risk to the financial health of all the California IOUs, and by extension, to the state's ability to meet its clean energy goals. So that's why we're so focused on it. It's such an important issue, and I do believe that that message is resonating and is well understood.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. Just on fire insurance and just availability and cost. Jason, I just wanted to check in with you and just hear your latest thoughts on market conditions were actually being able to obtain fire insurance?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Stephen. Just as a quick reminder, our liability insurance period runs from August 1 through July 31. And so last year when we renewed, we saw increases in prices but roughly at a level that was nearly 3 times what we're collecting in rates. And, as you can imagine as we're in the market for renewal this year, we're seeing capacity decline and pricing increase. I don't think it wouldn't be prudent for me to comment directly on pricing, but I think that general trend of smaller capacity, declining capacity as well as increasing pricing is something that we're going to face with this new upcoming renewal period.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Thank you. And if I could just maybe one last question just on, I guess, I'm thinking about accounting charges for potential fire liabilities. And assuming that we've received the first real data point from Cal Fire in terms of causation, is simply a report on causation enough for you all to think about taking a charge for fire liability, or would you want to see more in terms of – from the enforcement division, for example, report from them or just further data points for considering the accounting charge? And perhaps, though, more broadly, I'm questioning how relevant the accounting charge is in terms of the timing for the need of, if at all to raise additional equity. I know that's kind of a long question, just sort of I'm trying to think about what would sort of spur a potential accounting charge, and what might result in the need to raise capital, or is that pretty far off in time?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Thank you.There's a lot there. But let me say that I think the Cal Fire reports are going to be an important milestone as it relates to the evaluation of whether an accounting charge is needed. But those Cal Fire reports are not going to be necessarily absolutely dispositive. We will take into consideration what is producing those reports as well as other factors that we've gathered as we've conducted our own fact finding work as well. So, while an important milestone, it is not an absolute conclusion that an accounting charge will be recognized. In terms of the second part of the question relating to equity needs, I think it's an important reminder that if we were to take a charge, that charge would be noncash. And so, a way to think about the equity needs associated with a noncash charge, it would essentially be about 36% of the pre-tax charge. We'd have to – the way that calculation works is essentially – charges would be tax deductible. Our statutory rate is about 28%. So, on an after-tax charge would be about 72% of the pre-tax charge. And at the time that we would take a noncash charge, we'd only have to raise about half of that equity need. The remaining 36% would be raised as we actually spend the cash. So, the short of it is, equity needs would materialize over time. They would start when we took the accounting charge and they would conclude as we actually pay the cash out.
Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Very good. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
A question on since I was planning to ask this, I know the 10-Q just came out and it might be answered in there but if it is, I haven't seen it. So, I'm just curious on the Butte Fire. The past two quarters you haven't taken additional charges but you've said you didn't know – you haven't been able to estimate the high end. At one point, it was because you didn't have information on the claims, but that's like two quarters ago now. So, can you give us any perspective on sort of how the settlement of those cases is going along, how it's trended relative to what you booked, whether there's anything to read into you not having taken incremental charges, et cetera?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Jonathan, we are about halfway through sort of a settlement of claims associated with Butte. And to your point, we saw a large influx of claims in September of last year. We're still working through the details of some of those claims that came in late, as well as we are working through the impact of our legal challenges with respect to inverse condemnation in the Butte case. So as of the first quarter, we have not modified or provided a high end of that range. It's still $1.1 billion.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, are you still saying that you can't estimate the high end, or is there – is the inference that it's possible that numbers – what you booked is the high-end?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
At this point, we still cannot estimate the high-end of the range, but I think that there are a number of factors that are having an impact on settlement values, and we need more time to understand how those long-term trends will play out as we resolve the remaining sort of 50% of the claims.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And then just sticking on Butte, I believe the judge decided not to certify his denial of your motion to the appellate court. Does that have much of a bearing in your legal team's view of how long an appeals process might take?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Jonathan, it's John Simon, the General Counsel. I – not materially. So, as you were saying, the judge at our request could have certified his Butte ruling on appeal. He chose not to and when he said that – when he issued his ruling, he said there were two factors in that. One is that if there are significant disagreements about substantive law that might militate for certification. And he said there were significant disagreements. But the second factor is would certification materially advance the timing of the litigation and he felt that certification would not. So, he denied the certification. Certification might have some moderate impact on whether the Court of Appeals takes the writ on appeal. But there's cases where certifications are granted by the trial judge and the Court of Appeals doesn't take the appeal and vice versa. So, it really could go either way on the writ at this point.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just sticking on the legal. I have one other thing. If I'm not wrong, the sort of form of the motion that you filed in the North Bay case in San Francisco is sort of – is different from the type of motion that was filed in the Butte Fire case. Can you, for us non-lawyers, explain, what the – if that has any bearing on sort of how that's likely to play out just procedurally?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
I'll do my best for the non-lawyers. Bottom line is we don't think it makes a material difference on how it plays out. You're right that procedural vehicles of the motions in Butte and the North Bay cases are different but they're substantively the exact same arguments, which is inverse ought not to be applied to investor-owned utilities for many of the reasons that Geisha mentioned. The difference in the procedures really has to do with the difference in the vintage of those two cases. So as you know, the Butte cases have been on file for going on several years now. The North Bay cases are brand new. And as soon as the first opportunity for us to attack inverse after the Commission issued its WEMA decision, we brought those motions. So, the difference again is the vehicle had more to do with where the cases were in their lifecycles substantively they're the same.
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. That's probably enough for me. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi. Can you hear me?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yep.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yep.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay great. So first question, just on the Legislature. So, I get that there has been very strong high-level support to address fire issues including utility liability in this session. But maybe to go into more detail on that, if you listen to the legislative hearings, there does seem to be the difference in willingness to address things like pre-prudence in the future relative to actually fixing inverse i.e. there's a lot more openness to pre-prudence than picking inverse. So, could you be more specific in addressing Legislation with respect to the chance that fixing inverse will actually be part of it relative to some of these other utility liability fixes.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yes, Steve. This is Geisha. We view fixes that need to occur in the state Legislature as being threefold and they're broad in nature. So first, we have three specific goals. First, there's a need to reform strict liability. And it's simply not sustainable to put all the states' utilities whether they'd be investor-owned or publicly-owned at that level of risk when these wildfires are occurring, particularly when they haven't violated any safety rules or regulations. So, the first order of business is we need a reform on strict liability as it applies to utilities. The second issue that we need a solution on is the 17 wildfires which impacted both Northern and Southern California. And then the third significant issue that we need movement on is looking at the standard that establishes the legal baseline of reasonableness. And that's really part of what is the prudent manager of the system. We believe that all three of those elements need to be addressed to get the comprehensive reform needed on utility liability.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And is there any way you could give a sense of just how much willingness there is to move beyond just that third one into the first two?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yes. So, it's early days. We still have four months left in the session. There are many conversations and dialogue going on with the various stakeholders. The legislative session is, I've mentioned before, it's not linear, it's a highly fluid sort of process. You're going to see different bills, I believe. You're going to see different amendments. I would really caution everyone not to get over-fixated on any one particular piece of legislation, as I do believe we're going to see many different bills, many different amendments, and there's going to be a lot of ups and downs during those process. So, conversations are occurring, lots of discussions are occurring, and it's just a question now of putting the right text on paper to figure out what is the right comprehensive solution for the state?
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then a separate question on the – there was a Bloomberg story last night where President Picker mentioned that he expected the Cal Fire reports this summer. And I'm just curious if there – if I'm not sure where that reference came from. But just have you gotten any indications on a timing update for the Cal Fire report?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
No. We haven't gotten any timing updates from Cal Fire. Maybe he's, I don't know, doing the math and thinking through the comments of the Cal Fire Chief back in January. I think it was Ken Pimlott, at a hearing in Santa Rosa. He talked about reports, many reports, individual reports coming out in the next few months and perhaps President Picker is making an assumption there that those are ready sometime this summer. But, no certainly we haven't gotten any indication of when the timing for those reports will be.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta of Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Praful.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Morning. So, just on this Cal Fire report, just wanted to understand given we don't know timing. But if it does happen before the assumed solution on the legislative side, how do you see that impacting the legislative process? As in if it is come out saying there is some sort of causation connecting the utilities, do you think that hampers the process and do you think the legislators wait to see that before they do something?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Praful, this is Geisha. We don't know is really the honest answer here. There are going to be multiple reports. We know that there were 21 fires. The reality is we don't know what kind of impact the actual reports themselves will have on the legislative leaders as they consider utility liability both in the short and the long-term. It's a great question. I have the same question but I don't have an answer for you.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Fair enough. No, it's one that troubles me as well so just want to check. Moving on, I know Jason you mentioned that the settlement amounts are coming down from the Butte settlement. So just want to get a sense firstly of where do you think those ranges are going? And you mentioned there are a number of drivers that were helping bring those settlement amounts down. So, would like to get some color on what those drivers are, you think?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Praful, for the question. As you can imagine any settlement negotiation is very fluid. The reason why we are unable to provide a high end of the range is we really need to understand a longer-term impact that the various legal challenges we have to inverse condemnation, what those will do to the underlying settlement values. And so, I think providing a specific range today just probably wouldn't be productive.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Yeah. No. I totally understand on the number but in terms of like drivers, is there any drivers that you would say would help your story in terms of helping reduce those settlement amounts further?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
I think, Praful, John Simon. I think the earlier slide talked about the number of claimants or plaintiffs in the Butte cases, you've got more than 3,000 plaintiffs. Every single one is a bit different so you can imagine that when you're talking settlement or mediation, you're talking about very unique facts that have to do with each case, and then you overlay on that the uncertainties around inverse and we believe as again Geisha said, that inverse will be decided at some point in an appeals court and we take that into account. Some of the more severe claims tended to be brought up front. You can imagine why that would be. So, it's a whole lot of different things and it's hard to come up with sort of any sort of there is no algorithm on it.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
And how about the statute of limitations, the fact, that that is another determinant.
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
So, Geisha mentioning the statute of limitations, that's a good point. So there's two statute of limitations that are at play in the Butte case, one is for personal injury, and that's a two-year statute of limitations, and that ran in September of 2017. And right before that ran or expired, we saw a fairly big spike in claims. I think we had something like 700 to 900 or so more claims filed. The second statute of limitations in play is on property damage. That expires three years after the fire. So that's September 2018, and it's certainly possible if that past this prologue, that we'll get and more claims filed before that run. So that's another factor.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc..:
Got you. Super helpful, guys. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Julien.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. If we can, can I come back to this insurance question just real quickly? A couple of pieces of nuance there. So, I know we're early on and it's a little bit difficult to talk about, but how do you think about mitigating the impact from an earnings perspective of the higher insurance premiums, just you talked about bringing down the total volume. I mean I know you're not providing guidance, but how do you think about that sort of in the back half of the year as these new policies take effect over the next quarter or so? And could we see efforts for full recovery? And I'll leave it there.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. There's a couple of ways we're trying to manage the cost. As we thought about our financial plan for 2018, we understood that pricing for insurance was going to go up. And it was one of the reasons why we're continuing our focus to keep our service affordable for our customers, driving efficiencies throughout our business. And so, it was one of the headwinds that helped shape our efficiency targets for the year, which are essentially probably on an order of magnitude basis similar to what we announced last year. The other thing that I'll mention is, we do have the opportunity to seek cost recovery. Currently, we have filed in our WEMA application, the ability to recover excessive insurance premiums. That application is pending before the Commission. And finally, the other tool that we have available if WEMA application is denied, it's a Z-Factor filing, which essentially allows us to recover costs that could not be contemplated in our original forecasts that were included in our rate cases. So, we have a couple of tools available to try to mitigate sort of the ongoing risk of an earnings drag from these higher insurance costs.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. But just from a timing perspective given the WEMA application out there, so how do you think we should be thinking through even a transient impact here?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
So, I think as it relates to 2018, in my prepared remarks I mentioned that our financial plan for the year on an earnings from operations basis not a per share basis but on an earnings from operations basis, it's our plan to earn our CPUC authorized return on equity. So, we are contemplating higher insurance costs for the latter part of the year. The challenge that we're confronted with is the longer-term impact of these elevated insurance costs. Probably more in 2019 and 2020 and beyond.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. But the implication, sorry, the implementation of the WEMA filing and the timeline there just to kind of reconcile with that 2019 impact.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
In terms of the WEMA application it's been filed. We are just essentially awaiting a proposed decision in that case. I don't think we have a timeline for that proposed decision. But we're currently awaiting that PDs that we have better clarity after that potential recovery path.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. Excellent. And then if I could cut back, I know we're talking about several different cases. But if you could perhaps spread a little bit of a road map of upcoming data points. I know you've attempted to do so. A little bit in the slide deck here but what subsequent court cases should we be paying attention to that could really be the sort of these critical – addressing these critical milestones. Sort of from a more chronological perspective here rather than talking about the individual case merits.
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
I think the next – Julien, it's John that the next milestone would be and we're prepared and ready to file our appeal of the Butte decision that came out last week relatively soon. So, that's the next milestone. And once we do that then we're asking for the Court of Appeals in the 3rd District here in California to take that appeal. There's not an exact rule on when they will decide whether or not to take that appeal. But I think it's fair to say that's usually within a couple of months, maybe a little bit shorter. If they take the appeal then the appeal process on that motion goes forward. Separately in the 2017 wildfire cases, we have a motion Geisha alluded to that's pending to dismiss inverse condemnation from all those cases, the hearing for that case is in mid-May. I think it may be May 18 and so that would be the next milestone. Then I think one might look to the litigation involving Edison and motions they may be filing along the same lines. I don't know the timelines with respect to them though.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Turnure of JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good afternoon. Could you guys just give a little bit more detail on that last response there as it pertains to the 2017 wildfire case and the hearing on I guess, May 18? How does the case itself proceed when either you or the plaintiffs end up appealing the initial decision there?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
It's John, Christopher. The case, you should presume the case will go forward if an appeal on an inverse motion is filed. I think it's a fair assumption that an appeal would be filed either by whichever party is disappointed on that ruling. Normally, the case would go forward. Again, I think that's a fair assumption. It is possible for either party to try to stay a case while an appeal is moving forward but that – all I'm doing there is telling you there is a rule that allows for it. It would be and I wouldn't speculate on whether either party would seek a stay.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Gotcha. Okay. So in the absence of that basically two parallel processes to watch obviously the focus being on the higher court proceeding.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yes. It's a good way to look at it.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then I also wanted to ask about your catastrophic memorandum account that you filed, I guess, around the same time as your tax reform proposal with the CPUC. Can you give us some color on your decision to use this account to get recovery of past and future spending versus maybe any opportunity you would have had to displace CapEx in your current rate plans and kind of get recovery in that manner? Is it that you're kind of putting a spotlight on these costs and the total amount? Is it that you get a return on the balance while it's being looked at by the Commission, or are there other factors?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Thanks for the question, Chris. This is Jason. Essentially, the Catastrophic Event Memorandum Account we often refer to as CEMA is the procedural mechanism to recover costs for declared events. So, it really wasn't an analysis of alternative recovery paths or re-prioritizing spend in our General Rate Cases. What it was is essentially an ability for us to recover the costs to restore service and repair our system after declared events. The one nuance to this CEMA application that we recently filed is that we also included a forecast of the elevated vegetation management work that we've been executing in our system, just given sort of the size of those investments, and the delay in recovery periods from previous CEMA events. So essentially, an average sort of CEMA application generally takes about three years between the time we actually spend the money on our system before we actually start to collect the money in rates. And as we are significantly increasing the amount of work related to vegetation management, we felt that delay in recovery was not in the best interest of our customers which is why we've included a forecast of the vegetation, drought-related vegetation management work in this most recent CEMA application.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And to clarify there, you felt like you did not have an alternative to this like there was no other option that you could use. This was the appropriate account and you used it and then separately, do you get a return on that balance before a decision?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
On the first question in terms of the appropriateness, this is the account that the Commission directs recovery for these types of costs. So, there was really no analysis or decision where we're using the essentially the procedural vehicle that's available to us for recovery of these types of costs. In terms of our ability to recover the balance before it's, before we receive a decision, our balancing accounts do have a short-term financing rate component. Essentially that we're allowed to recover and as well the capital that we've invested in our system, to restore and repair service, also earns a rate of return during the period which the application is being heard.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Got it. Thanks for the detail, Jason.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont of Mizuho Financial Group. Please proceed.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Thanks. I guess first question relates to the timing of the release of the Cal Fire report. I mean as you indicated earlier, it sounded as if the Cal Fire was thinking of releasing within several months if in fact, Picker, was right and it ends up coming out in the summer that would seem to represent a delay. Is there a sense that they want to issue the Nor Cal and the Southern California fire reports at the same time?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well. Hi, this is Geisha. No, we haven't heard that. We as a matter of fact have heard that as they finish up their investigations and have their reports ready to go. What we had heard back in January was that there was not going to be a delay in groupings sort of strategy there. So, we have not heard anything different since January. So, our expectation would be that when they're ready as they're ready they would be issued.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Great. And then to-date – I mean aside from the very general comment that the Governor made earlier in the year. Has the Governor's office may come out specifically on the issue of strict liability or inverse condemnation?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Just in terms of their statement that utility liability needed to be reviewed, updated actually I think was the word that their statement had and relative to the fact that we're seeing more frequent and more severe issues impacting the state that's the one public statement that I've seen from the Governor's office.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
And I guess the last question that I have is sort of a legal question on the judge's decision in the Butte case. He seemed to indicate that the recovery was in his view not a central tenet of inverse based on a footnote, I guess, and in one of the prior legal decisions issued by the appellate court. Any thoughts on sort of that interpretation of recoverability?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Paul, it's John. The judge was referring to a footnote in the Pac Bell case that wasn't part of the Pac Bell Holding. And it was really a statement that was trying to distinguish immunities from IOUs. But honestly, that Pac Bell case came out way before the CPUC's recent decision on San Diego's WEMA case where both the Commission and in the concurrences, there was strong language that inverse needs to be reformed. So, no, I can't speak to why the judge included the reference to that footnote, but we think everything's changed, and that footnote really no longer applies on a going forward basis.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you for that question, Paul. This is Chris. I'll go ahead and close this out. I just want to thank, everyone, again for joining us this morning on the call and for the questions. And have a safe day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Geisha Williams - Chief Executive Officer and President of PG&E Corporation Jason Wells - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Chris Foster - Investor Relations John Simon - Executive Vice President and General Counsel Steve Malnight - Senior Vice President, Strategy and Policy
Analysts:
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Greg Gordon - Evercore Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E fourth quarter earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to introduce your host, Chris Foster, Senior Director of Investments with PG&E. Thank you and enjoy your conference. You may proceed Mr. Foster.
Chris Foster:
Thank you, Keira, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Geisha Williams, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our financial outlook which are based on assumption, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described in the second page of today's fourth quarter earnings call presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review the 2017 annual report on Form 10-K that will be filed with the SEC late today and the discussion of risk factors that happens there. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha Williams:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. I know that the Northern California wild fires continue to be top of mind and I will spend the majority of my remarks on that topic today. I will also touch on the progress we continue to make in our core operations including improving our ability to prepare for and response to potential wildfires. Finally, I will address how we are developing and implementing innovative solutions that both better serve our customers and help to advance California's clean energy goals. Jason will then address tax reform impacts followed by a walk through the financial results for the quarter. The record wildfires both in Northern and Southern California have had an extraordinary impact. They were absolutely tragic for the communities and families who lost loved ones and property and who continue to be in our thoughts as we support their recovery. They have had profound financial and economic consequences for the state and of course they have significantly impacted the utilities. At this point, Cal Fire is continuing its investigations and we still don’t have a conclusion on the causes of the fires. But across the state there is a growing recognition that we need comprehensive solutions and that we have to think differently about how we prevent, how we respond to and recover from wild fires, as well as the importance of infrastructure resilience. Governor Brown has acknowledged this in his public comments. So have members of the legislature and so had CPUC President Picker and other CPUC commissioners. We all recognized that California is facing a new normal when it comes to climate threats. I couldn’t agree more and looking ahead we understand these challenges aren't going away, we have to adapt. That includes working together to manage and mitigate climate risk. It includes looking at how we plan future investment and it includes ensuring that our state infrastructure is more resilient. More immediately, it requires changes in operating practices which I will touch on in a minute. Our communities need physical infrastructure that can withstand this new environment and rebound quickly. And we also need the policy infrastructure that facilitates our ability to recover from these events as well. It's bigger than just PG&E and the other California IOUs and much bigger than just this past year's fires. This is a collective societal challenge. For example, it has a direct impact on the state's ability to meet its build clean energy goals. The Northern California wild fires last year resulted in the equivalent of a full year of vehicle emissions in California over the course of just a few days. This simply isn't sustainable. Our commitment is that we are going to work together with leaders in the state and our communities, our customers, our regulators, our fellow utilities and others to find solutions. Of course it's complex. But in one sense this is nothing new for us or our partners. Together we have tackled big, complex challenges for decades, be it system wide rebuilding codes and system code modifications following the Loma Prieta earthquake. Reaching the state's target for 33% renewables three years early while also improving reliability. Or just recently, the joint proposal that was approved to safely retire our Diablo Canyon nuclear facility while replacing its carbon-free base load power with clean energy resources. In the meantime, I want to acknowledge upfront the impact the wild fires have had on our shareholders as well. In particular, we know the dividend suspension was difficult news for our long-term investors, so let me speak to that. I want to emphasize what we said at the time of the announcement. The decision was not the result of any new information about causes of the fires. As I noted earlier, those investigations are ongoing and maybe for quite some time. The decision was driven by the level of uncertainty about the potential causes and liabilities associated with the fires. Ultimately the board and management with the support of independent advisors determined that suspension of the dividend was the prudent and appropriate course of action under these difficult and uncertain circumstances. We recognize the importance of dividends to our investors and we intend to revisit the issue as we get more clarity on any potential liability. The board has the appropriate flexibility to reinstate the dividend if we are able to narrow the current broad range of potential exposure and uncertainty. Until then, we are sure that this issue is top of mind for the board and the management team and we continue to re-evaluate this on a regular basis. As many of you already know, the biggest factor underlying the current uncertainty is California's application of inverse condemnation to investor-owned utility. This establishes that a utility maybe strictly liable for damages and legal fees if their equipment is found to have been the substantial cause of an event such as a wild fire, even if a company acted reasonably. It effectively makes utilities the default insurers for wild fire risks, shifting the cost to our shareholders with no assurance of rate recovery. This is simply bad public policy. We believe the legal theory behind is severely flawed and we are challenging it aggressively on three fronts. In the regulatory, legal and legislative arenas. From a regulatory perspective, we have requested a re-hearing of the CPUC in the San Diego Gas and Electric Company's wild fire cost recovery proceeding. On the legal side, we filed a motion about a month ago. There we have asked the trial court in the Butte wild fire case to reconsider its interpretation of the application of inverse condemnation given the CPUC's decision in the SDG&E case. We have a hearing that’s been set for March 15 when we will provide our arguments. And finally, we are informing law makers as part of a broad effort to tackle what is ultimately a societal issue of climate change and the holistic solutions that must be addressed. This includes improved resiliency for California as it relates to extreme climate driven events and we believe part of that solution must involve rationalizing the application of inverse condemnation. In the short-term, action is needed now before we experience another fire season. And over the long-term not addressing this issue has grave implication to the industry's financial health and our ability to attract affordable capital needed not only for California to meet it's clean energy goals but for us to continue to deliver on our priorities of safe, reliable, affordable and clean energy for our customers. Let me transition now to our core operations. I am really pleased to share that just morning we along with the joint parties announced that we will not seek re-hearing of the CPUC's decision on the Diablo Canyon power plant joint proposal and that we will be withdrawing our license renewal application at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This is a huge milestone. And as I have mentioned earlier, an example of what can be accomplished through partnership and coalition. Looking back now to 2017, I am really proud of how our employees stepped up during what was really a challenging year. We have just come through a year with record breaking rains, record breaking heat waves, record number of dead or dying trees, all culminating in the most destructive wildfires we have ever seen. As a result, I want to acknowledge the incredible focus and dedication of our employees. In 2017, our teams worked an incremental 1 million hours or a 50% increase above our historical norm in support of our customers and communities while continuing to advance our grid modernization efforts. Looking ahead as I mentioned, action is needed now prior to another wild fire season in our state and so we are aggressively moving forward with our 2018 wild fire season plan, as well as some customer focused specific efforts in the impacted areas in the North Bay. As you can imagine, our planning is also focused on fire resiliency which will be reflected in our 2020 GRC. We have already taken specific actions that will continue to execute on at a system level for 2018. They include, first, in high risk wild fire areas disabling all distribution system remotely controlled re-closures on high risk [dates] [ph]. And disabling manually operated re-closures throughout the wild fire season. Second, expanding use of weather stations in forecasting modeling. Third, expanding our already extremely comprehensive vegetation management practices, and fourth, working collaboratively with first responders and others to evolve our pre-staging and emergency response capability. And we have already implemented new protocols for de-energizing our lines, a highly complex issue. Just as important, we are moving forward now on engaging the impacted local communities. The families and core local government officials as part of the rebuild North Bay are ready to tackle creative solutions that reflect California's ability to move quickly with technology based advances. And we will be right there with them. We will be working with the communities to see where new system design and operational improvements can be executed quickly. We will be looking at non-wood poles, high definition cameras and new inspection techniques, as well as deploying micro-grid solutions that fit their specific needs. Across the enterprise, we remain focused on executing operational goals that form the foundation of our company in the next few years. And to that end, we are also not letting up on pursuing projects that will keep California at the forefront of clean energy policy. I will highlight two areas that we are looking at in 2018, both of which I am particularly excited about. First is a project in Oakland. The areas surrounding the Port of Oakland are undergoing exciting changes under the leadership of Mayor Schaaf and other local leaders. We are contributing to that vision as well through what we call the Oakland clean energy initiative. This is a proposal to provide the California independent system operator or CAL ISO with a really creative clean energy solution. We filed an alternative to replace an aging fossil fueled fire power plant with state of the art clean energy through a portfolio of energy efficiency and distributed generation resources that will provide reliable power to Oakland and other communities throughout the Bay area. It's ground breaking because when it's approved, the proposal would mark the first time that local clean energy resources are proactively deployed instead of fossil fueled generation for transmission reliability at this scale. It's big. And just last week, the CAL ISO staff included the approval of this project in their draft transmission plan which is a key step in moving this forward. We see this as a preview of what the future of energy will look like. It's a great example of what we can do for our communities and our economy when we work together to come up with innovative solutions. And we are looking at opportunities to push the envelope in other areas as well. In addition, we see tremendous opportunity to partner in helping to meet the state's carbon reduction goals in the electric vehicle space. Governor Brown recently issued a zero emission vehicle executive order which sets a goal of having 5 million zero emission vehicles on California's roads by the year 2030. Our energy infrastructure and nearly 80% GHG-free electric portfolio are key enablers of meeting this goal and we look forward to working with the states in achieving it. We are already implementing our EV charge network and in the coming quarter we hope to receive approval for the $250 million filing we made early last year. This request moves beyond the light duty vehicles and looks at medium and heavy duty electrification technologies and even school bus electrification for our communities. These efforts, really using our planning and engineering expertise to push for clean energy solutions while testing and evaluating new vehicle electrification efforts, represent just a portion of our commitment to advancing carbon reduction goals for California. So before I turn it over to Jason, I want to reiterate that we are aggressively pursuing all avenues to address the application of inverse condemnation to investor-owned utilities. This is a critical issue that must be resolved and I can assure you that we will continue to take a lead role in addressing it. At the same time, we haven't lost sight of our core operations. Providing safe, reliable and affordable service and offering innovative solutions for our customers continues to be our mission each and every day. And finally, we look forward to partnering across the state to tackle climate change impacts and in the meantime, proactively addressing system resiliency to mitigate the impact of future events. As I said earlier, this is much bigger than just PG&E. But we recognize that we play a key role in helping to meet our state's clean energy goals and we are excited about the opportunity that represents for both our customers as well as our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to Jason to walk you through the financials before we take your questions.
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Geisha and good morning everyone. First, I would like to address 2018 guidance. Given the uncertainty stemming from the October 2017 Northern California wild fires, we will be not be providing 2018 earnings per share guidance on today's call. We will revisit it as we have better clarity into potential liabilities, if any, related to the Northern California wild fires. I will, however, be addressing CapEx and rate-based guidance for 2018 and 2019, as well as sharing how we are thinking about at equity. I want to emphasize that this guidance assumes no additional impact from the October 2017 Northern California wild fires beyond what we are providing on today's call. So today I will start by covering the expected impacts from tax reform and then transition to our fourth quarter results. Slide four outlines the expected impacts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law in December. Income taxes are a significant component of our cost of service so we expect tax reform changes to provides benefits for our customers in the long-run and we also expect these changes to generate higher rate based growth for our shareholders. There are also impacts to PG&E cash flows and financing needs as well as a transition charge we recorded in the fourth quarter. I will talk about those in a minute. But first I want to emphasize that we are very early in the overall implementation of tax reforms. Our guidance reflects best expectations today but there is work to be done if we get all the details ironed out and ultimately the CPUC will need to authorize how and when tax reform is implemented. In early January we informed the CPUC that we would file our plan to implement tax reform by the end of March. On the GRC side, we are already required to track the impact of tax law changes memo account for disposition in the 2020 GRC. Our filing in March would accelerate that time. In terms of the impact on revenues, we anticipate that the revenue we collect from our customers will be reduced by approximately $500 million annually as a result of the lower corporate tax rate. While this revenue reduction will be effective starting in 2018, the actual bill impact maybe lower in the first year as we await CPUC approval on the implementation plan. From a federal cash tax payment perspective, we won't see any immediate benefits due to our net operating loss. And while the lower corporate tax rate will reduce federal tax payments in the long run, the elimination of bonus depreciation accelerates the amortization of our net operating loss carried forward. This results in PG&E becoming a federal cash tax payer in 2020, which is a year earlier then our previous expectations of 2021. Based on the combination of these drivers and in particular the elimination of bonus depreciation, we expect ratebase will be about $500 million more in 2018 and then an incremental $300 million more in 2019, for a cumulative total of $800 million more over the next two years. Through 2019 we now expect ratebase growth of approximately 7.5% to 8% annually compared to the 6.5% to 7%, we shared on our third quarter call. Beyond 2019, while we expect ratebase to grow at a higher rate as a result of tax reform, the incremental growth will begin to slow given that bonus depreciation was already scheduled to end in 2020 under the previous law. So stepping back, from an overall cash perspective we anticipate that tax reform on a net basis will drive incremental equity needs of roughly $200 million more in 2018 and 2019 for a total of $400 million more over the next two years. I will talk more about equity in a bit. And while we are not providing earnings guidance today, we would expect an increase in earnings from operations consistent with the change in ratebase. Finally, in the fourth quarter we did record a onetime charge of $147 million after tax, which reflects the reevaluation of the holding company's net operating loss and deferred tax assets at the utility that fall outside of regulation for things such as disallowed plant. This charge is reflected as an item impacted comparability in our fourth quarter results. In summary, while we need to work through the regulatory process, it is clear that tax reform is going to drive long term benefits to our customers and also drive higher ratebase growth, financing needs and earnings. Slide 5 shows our results for the fourth quarter. Earnings from operations on a per share basis came in at $0.63. GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. Cost associated with the Northern California wild fires totaled $82 million free cash and included reinstatement of our insurance as well as legal and other costs. For the Butte fire, we recorded legal expenses of $15 million pretax. Pipeline related expenses were $12 million pretax for the quarter. Our legal and regulatory related expenses came in at $2 million pretax. Moving on to Slide 6, which shows quarter over quarter comparison from earnings from operations of $1.33 in Q4 last year and $0.63 in Q4 this year. We were $0.33 unfavorable due to the timing of the final phase two decision in the 2015 GT&S rate case which was received in December of 2016. This fully reverse the favorable year-to-date variance for a net impact of zero for the full year. Timing of taxes was $0.18 unfavorable, also resulting in a zero net impact for the full year. Due to the loss of the incremental tax repair benefits as part of the 2017 GRC decision, we were $0.09 unfavorable. We were $0.06 unfavorable due to the timing of operational spend. As we mentioned on the third quarter call, we have bundled some of our work to execute it more efficiently which created a delay in some of our expend from Q3 to Q4. In the fourth quarter of 2016 we received a customer energy efficiency incentive award with no similar amount in 2017, resulting in $0.02 unfavorable. Share dilution resulted in $0.02 negative for the quarter. Miscellaneous items totaled $0.05 unfavorable for the quarter and primarily reflect the reversal of certain timing related items. Offsetting these unfavorable variances were favorable rate base earnings of $0.05 for the quarter. Slide 7 outlines our capital expenditure, authorized rate base and cost of capital assumptions for 2018. We have also provided a few additional factors that could impact our results for the year in a lower rate quarter, which we expect will largely offset each other. While we are not providing earnings per share guidance for 2018, on an earnings from operations basis, our objective is to earn the CPUC authorized 10.25% return on equity across the enterprise. Turning to Slide 8. The guidance for items impacting comparability reflects a range of $100 million to $170 million pretax. Pipeline related expenses are expected to fall between $35 million and $60 million pretax and reflect the final amounts we plan to incur under this program. We expect the total program spend to fall within our previously disclosed range of $450 million to $475 million. We have estimated a range of $30 million to $60 million pretax for legal cost associated with the Butte fire. This range does not include any estimate for claims related costs. Northern California wild fire cost net of insurance are expect to range between $35 million and $50 million. This includes an estimate of legal and other cost of $100 million to $150 million, partially offset by insurance recoveries of $65 million to $100 million. These estimates do not assume any amounts for claim related costs. Transitioning now to Slide 9. Our capital expenditure plans through 2019 are consistent with what we disclosed in the third quarter with plan spend of approximately $6.3 billion in 2018 and roughly $6 billion in 2019. Moving to Slide 10. As I previously mentioned, our rate base now reflects the impact of tax reform with a growth rate of roughly 7.5% to 8% annually through 2019. This also incorporates the 2019 gas transmission storage rate case that we filed last November. Slide 11 outlines how we are thinking about usage and sources of equity for the next couple of years. We previously shared that we expected our equity needs for 2018 and 2019 to largely be met through our internal programs which have generated approximately $300 million to $400 million annually over the last several years. This was primarily to support our CapEx programs and rate based programs. Additionally, as I shared earlier, tax reform increases our equity needs by roughly $200 million in both 2018 and 2019. And our items impacting comparability also drive incremental equity requirements. As we think about our equity plans with the dividend suspension, we do plan to continue issuing equity under our internal programs. However, with our dividend suspended, the dividend reinvestment program has been halted so we expect a decrease in the amount of equity these programs will generate. With that said, we expect our current equity needs will be covered as a result of the dividend suspension. But as Geisha mentioned earlier, the board is committed to revisiting the dividend decision as greater clarity is reached and also resuming a more normal financing approach. Finally, the cash that we are conserving as a result of the dividend suspension, is reducing our financing needs and creating an equity cushion that if needed, could ultimately be used for any potential liabilities that result from the Northern California wild fires. In closing, I want to reiterate that we fully recognize what a challenging few months this has been for our shareholder community both with the uncertainty generated by the Northern California wild fires and the decision to suspend our dividend in December. As Geisha shared, we are working hard to address the challenges that inverse condemnation raises for both our customers and our shareholders. And you have our commitment that as material facts unfold, we will keep you apprised of the progress. So with that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you for the update. A question on -- you obviously, I guess, will see more discussion in the 10-Q but you haven't taken any incremental reserves against the Butte fire this quarter, I think. Is that correct?
Jason Wells:
That is correct.
Jonathan Arnold:
And in the last quarter you had said, you didn’t have enough information to determine the high end because there were large number of claims you didn’t know enough about, I think. So is that still the case or is the fact that you are not taking a charge a reflection of your view of the strength of your legal position and the challenge you filed in front of the court. I was just curious if you could give us some sense of what's driving the sort of reserving policy there.
Jason Wells:
Sure. Well, we continue to make progress settling some of the cases in the fourth quarter. We still don’t have detail for about 25% of the total claims related to the Butte fire. But also importantly, as Geisha mentioned, we feel strongly about the strength of our challenge. The application of inverse condemnation as it relates to investor-owned utilities. And so we need both further clarity as it relates to claims data as well as progress on a legal front.
Jonathan Arnold:
In order to sort of have a probable number you could estimate, is that the right way to think? So it is no more probable or estimable than it was last quarter, is that where we are, Jason?
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. We still feel that the $1.1 billion that we have accrued so far for the Butte related fire to be appropriate.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then just one other on this co-area, if possible. So it sounds like you are saying that whatever you said about equity before, you now see the dividend suspension covering that in the next couple of years. Have I understood that right? And just the...
Jason Wells:
We didn’t give any guidance on the length of the dividend suspension. What we try to provide was just the underlying drivers of our base equity needs. You will have to make an assumption about any potential liabilities, any arising from the Northern California wild fires as well as the length of the dividend suspension.
Jonathan Arnold:
No. Sure. I wasn’t getting of that. But I think you did say that you felt that given what you laid out as the current needs, that would fall under the amount of equity created by the dividend suspension and you are turning off the drip. So there is really not going to be very much issuance under internal programs for the time being. Is that fair?
Jason Wells:
We will continue issuing under the internal programs but with the dividend suspended we expect less from the drip. The drip has historically contributed roughly $60 million a year to our internal equity needs. That combination of continuing to issue under the internal programs coupled with the suspension of the dividends provides us sufficient financing for our ongoing capital.
Jonathan Arnold:
So $60 million of the drip component of the 300 to 400 roughly?
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. Yes.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just on -- so it feels like the commission has kind of somewhat encouraged the idea that you would want to address inverse condemnation in the court. And you talked about building an equity cushion against any charges on the 2017 fires. Is there a case to be made that you might request some kind of waiver from the 52% equity? You felt that the inverse condemnation discussion was still pending and live but you are right up to the point where you did need to take a charge. I am just curious kind of if that’s something you could even do or if you think it would be a good idea.
Jason Wells:
Well, I appreciate the question, Jonathan. I mean right now we still don’t even have the cause of the fires, so it premature to talk about sort of potential liability and courses of action. That being said, we do have the file waiver with the CPUC if we believe we will be out of compliance with our regulated capital structure.
Jonathan Arnold:
Has that something you have ever done before with success or?
Jason Wells:
We actually have filed that as part of the energy prices but it was never ruled on by the commission given they ultimately disposed off the overall resolution of the bankruptcy proceeding.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
Steve Fleishman:
So first just, I am not sure if you can answer this, but should we expect to get any more color on the claims that have been filed for the Northern California fire in your 10-K?
John Simon:
Good morning. It's John Simon. I am the General Counsel here. We do discuss the number of claims and there they are filed and briefly the status of where we are in those cases. There has been, just to highlight this for you, about 107 or so complaints filed against PG&E. We don’t know if they have all been served by the way, but we know they have been filed. They have been coordinated in the San Francisco superior court and at this point there is a -- I believe there is a case management conference coming up towards the end of February. That’s the point where we will learn a little bit more about what the procedure is going forward. But that’s about where we are.
Steve Fleishman:
How about the dollar value?
John Simon:
We don’t have much insight into the dollar value at this point. We do know that those complaints are asserting for the most part either property damage claims under inverse or personal injury claims under negligence. And that’s about all we know. Very early on.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. When would we likely get more info on the dollar value of claims.
John Simon:
Honestly, I think that’s going to be a while. So right now those cases are at the very early stages of procedure and process. There is no schedule set. I think over the course of discover, which again hasn’t even no schedule set on that, over the course of the next year, year and half or so, we might get more visibility into it but it's hard to know for sure.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. My other question is just on, I am sure you all listen to the commission's session related to, I think director at the financial community this week. And I guess my sense on the takeaway from that is that they don’t have any understanding there is a potential crisis here for the investor-owned utilities as you are going to have to have to take on all these costs under inverse with if you did cause the fires and so I guess I would curious your take of that but more importantly, what are you doing to make sure they understand how bad this could be and that the implications it has? Or do they understand it and they are just not communicating it given all their rules.
Steve Malnight:
This is Steve Malnight. I wanted to say, I think we were also disappointed with the comments and the tone from the webinar earlier this week. You think it's important to put it in a little bit context. First of all you mentioned this was the rules that were applied against that discussion. Clearly, it was a little bit of a new forum for them and they were very cautious about delving into anything that could be an ex parte, so there wasn’t really discussions about inverse or other things. And when you look at the broader suite of comments from the commissioners, I think looking at the San Diego WEMA case with President Picker and Commissioner Guzman Aceves concurrence where they clearly noted that the logic for applying inverse condemnation in investor-owned utilities was unsound and they urged the legislature and courts to address the issue. I think there is some context in other places where there is maybe more recognition than was shown in that discussion. So I think from our perspective, we are taking every opportunity available to not only talk to the commission and the commissioners but also really all the policy makers across California and Sacramento and others. As Geisha said, this is a bigger challenge than just the investor-owned utilities. It's bigger challenge than just PG&E and it really calls for a significant and comprehensive state-wide solution. So we are very active in every place we can be to share that message and to explain that. We are also partnering with the other investor-owned utilities, labor and other interested parties in seeking out comprehensive solutions. So we are going to continue to work that hard and take every opportunity we can.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
Stephen Byrd:
I wanted to just talk about the process, I think Geisha had mentioned there will be hearing on March 15. I wondered if it would be possible to get some sense for the process and timeline after that hearing. How we should think about that case playing out, and I guess it depends on ultimately the decision made by the court on that. But just curious if you could give a little more color around how to think about next steps after that hearing.
John Simon:
Sure, Steven. John Simon. You know, the hearing as you mentioned is scheduled for March 15. We filed briefs. There is briefing schedule which I don’t know of the top of my head leading up to that hearing. We don’t know at that hearing what actually is going to happen. There is options. The judge may rule right then and there. He may listen to arguments and then set some sort of time table after that. So it's really hard to know and I wouldn’t want to speculate on what the judge is going to do there. Several have asked about, so what happens after that. You know whomever looses that motion, whether it's the plaintiffs, I will speak for PG&E, if we lose that motion we would then expect to seek permission from the court of appeals to appeal that decision. That’s an appeal that isn't automatically granted but we would file papers asking for permission to purse that appeal. There is a timeline on that. It's a little unpredictable. But two months to six months, I think, is a fair estimate of considering a [writ] [ph] on appeal. If the writ is granted then we go ahead and get into a briefing situation on the appeal. An appeal could take, again this is a wide range there because one doesn’t completely know but nine months to two years on an appeal is not uncommon. If we seek a writ and the writ is denied then the appeal stops at that point and we would then look to appeal any sort of judgment on any Butte case to again re-raise the issue if we lose. So that’s really, I think, the best insight we can give you on how this could play out.
Stephen Byrd:
That’s helpful. And then I guess just adding on to that. Both for this decision as well as I guess the San Diego case which we expect ultimately to go to the California Court of Appeals as well. If you do have victory on one of these court cases or one of other utilities do, would that decision effectively apply to the Northern California claims and cases that are likely to be arising as per Steve Fleishman's question earlier in terms of all the case filed. In other words, are those decisions timely enough to be able to apply to these upcoming cases that you likely would have for the Northern California fires.
John Simon:
We would most certainly argue they do. It depends a little bit on what the decision says and how it's written. I would say there is a good chance that a decision from the trial court but particularly in appeals court would be considered and applied by another court considering a wild fire case. It's not completely certain on that point, Steven, and I don’t want to overly speculate, but that would then get worked out in the courts over the next couple of years.
Stephen Byrd:
Okay. Great. And sorry for all the questions. Just one last one on, really on -- I am thinking about co-leasing of equipment with the telecom companies. And there sometimes is a telecom equipment involved as well. What is your general take on how if at all that could intersect with the overall investigation or whether or not that might imply some involvement or causation from the telecom equipment side of things? Or is that too uncertain at this point.
John Simon:
Well, to re-stress what Jason and Geisha said, it's very early and the investigations are ongoing. I will tell you, what we do know is that after the 2017 wild fires. Cal Fire, which is the lead investigation agency sent letters to various companies with respect to asking us to make sure we preserve evidence which of course we are doing. They sent those letters also to some telecoms, I don’t know which ones off of the top of my head. So I think we have to see how the investigations play out and see which facilities, if any, we are talking about here. But I think, it's potentially a bigger world than just PG&E involved in litigation. That’s really, as far as I know.
Geisha Williams:
If I could add something to that, Steven, this is Geisha. When you look at the fire footprint for these 21 fires, something like 75% of the poles that are in the impacted area are jointly used. In other words, they have both PG&E equipment and telecom equipment. Only 25% of the poles are just PG&E. So that also should give you a little bit of flavor in terms of the potential impact.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides:
Couple of easy questions for you. First of all, can you remind us which of the telecom companies overlap with your service territory in the area impacted by the October 2017 wild fires. Is it just the wire line telephone, is it the cable, is it both?
Jason Wells:
Michael, this is Jason. It's hard to say definitively over that fire footprint, but what I would say is cable and telecom both have quite a bit of equipment on our poles up there. And it would be the traditional large cable and telecom companies owning that equipment.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Can you all talk a little bit about whether, I am trying to think a little bit about when you would start actually paying out claims, meaning the cash that you settle as part of the October 2017 wild fire process. We wait obviously until you get the Cal Fire report and kind of some of the other reports, maybe your own as well. Would you start kind of resolving those complaints as early an as soon as possible to get through them. I am just trying to think about cash flow and liquidity.
Jason Wells:
Michael, this is Jason. It's just really way too early in that process. We don’t really know the cause of the fires. It's hard to kind of give, kind of any estimate on when claims will be resolved. I will just provide some anecdotal evidence as it relates to the Butte fire though. That fire, it took about seven months or so to publish the results of the investigation on the causes of fire. We didn’t start settling claims for probably about another six months or so. So it was a good year sort of after the fire before we started to settle on [dues] [ph]. Obviously the Northern California wild fires are a much more complex set of fires but right now we just don’t have any better visibility to time any cash flows.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then last thing. Like we saw in the San Diego case and you all have seen in Butte. Even if the inverse condemnation is reversed, there is still exposure of potential private kind of negligence related lawsuits. How do you kind of think through that process and how that process would work relative to a process where inverse condemnation is kind of the governing statute or governing rule.
John Simon:
It's John Simon, Michael. Very different theories and negligence which is reasonable in the standard of care is determined by the [try or] of fact at the end of the day after a trial. And so you know, you think about those cases very differently whereas inverse is strict liability and utilities conduct and even if we did everything right, really doesn’t matter. In a negligence case it's all about, as I said, standard of care. So it's lengthier process that’s determined in court down the road. We think as we have said in the Butte case, that we exercised all reasonable standards of care and we are prepared to defend ourselves in court on a negligence claim if we get to that.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Last one. How long did it take in the Butte case before you had a good handle on what the total number of claims that were submitted was like, I can just kind of go through the 10-Qs and go through the amounts that got you up to the $1.1 billion. But can you just remind us, you know how much time that took before all the claims actually got filed before you had a chance to evaluate.
John Simon:
It’s possible some more claims could in. So we had -- it was fairly stable on the number of claims filed. But at the two year anniversary of the Butte fire, which is the time at which the statute limitations expired for personal injury claims. We got a large spike of claims, which is where we sit today. The statute limitations runs on property damages at the three year anniversary of the fire. That’s why I said it's possible more claims could come in. Our experience in Butte was most of them did come in within a year or so of the event. But again, we had that spike towards the two-year anniversary on the statute and could see more when the property damage statute expires. It's hard to come up with a rule of thumb on the cadence and timing of when claims are filed. That’s sort of our best view of what happened.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.
Greg Gordon:
A couple of questions. Just I want to be clear I understood what I heard with regard to your plans for equity. In the Q3 disclosures you said you needed about $400 million to $500 million a year of equity. And you disclosed just today, you are saying tax increases debt by $200 million a year this year and next year. On the other hand you are not -- have generated $1 billion of cash by virtue of not paying the dividend for as long as you are not doing that annualized. So are you saying that you are going to issue $600 million to $700 million a year or are you simply giving us for the next two years, for '18, or are you saying that would theoretically be your equity need in the normal course of business framework but the actual amount of equity you are going to issue is going to be different from that. I am just not clearly on exactly what your guidance was today.
Jason Wells:
Sure. Thanks for the question, Greg. A couple of things there. On the Q3 call, our $400 million to $500 million forecast for equity related to 2017. On the Q3 call we provided qualitative guidance on 2018 and 2019 equity needs, which was we would essentially be able to largely meet our expected equity needs in 2018 and 2019 through our internal programs which on average generated $350 million. Rolling forward to today's discussion of equity, what we wanted to provide was sort of the underlying changes in the base equity needs. And so the principal change from the Q3 call for 2018 and 2019 guidance of roughly $350 million annually was that we now expect to need $200 million more in both 2018 and 2019 weighted to tax reform. We also have small incremental equity needs related to the items impacting comparability, which I disclosed. Offsetting those equity needs, we will continue to issue equity under our internal programs although we expect the numbers to be less this year, given the suspension of the dividend. At the same time since we are not paying out a dividend, that more than offsets the equity we would have had to raise. Ultimately what we try to do here with this guidance is provide sort of the underlying equity drivers so that you can make your assumptions around any potential equity from -- potential liabilities from the Northern California wild fires as well as your view on the assumptions for the length of the dividend suspension. What we have tried to do is provide those components.
Greg Gordon:
Yes, that’s actually very clear. But I guess it begs the question, like do you expect to keep your internal programs, sort of at a minimum in terms of the equity you are going to issue this year which you were also very clear on saying would be 350 in the normal course of business but probably $60 million lower, all things equal, given that there is now no dividend that the drip would therefore not generate any proceeds.
Jason Wells:
Yes. We do intend to keep the internal programs on. While they on average generated $350 million annually, there was some variability. The ranges for the last three years were between $300 million to $400 million. We know though that it could be as much as $60 million less as a result of the dividend suspension. So there will be some variability as to what those internal programs generate. But those are the components.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. That’s 100% clear. Thanks. My second question is, relative from a quarterly cash -- from a cash flow perspective, when you look at your PG&E subsidiary and you look at the corporate parent. Now that you have suspended the dividend, is cash actually flowing up to the parent to fundamentally cover the parent interest and overhead obligations or is PG&E essentially a closed system at this point. Not dividend in cash up to the parent and does the parent have any other cash sources other than the equity you are issuing to cover its costs. And approximately, what are those costs on a quarterly and annual basis.
Jason Wells:
Well, the decision to suspend the dividend was both at the utility as well as PG&E Corporation. So, no, there is no more cash flowing from the utility to the corporation. That being said, as I mentioned, we are continuing to issue equity under the internal programs. And just to sort of frame the ongoing sort of cost of the corporation. We have about $350 million in holding company debt which is starting to mature in 2019. But we don’t really have much in the way of incremental overhead. And beyond sort of the sources of cash from the internal programs, we also have accessed the commercial paper markets at the holding company. So we have sufficient liquidity at the holding company despite not having dividends from the utility to the holding company.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. So unallocated corporate expenses like advertising or incentive compensation, things like that. What you look at what's not being paid for in rates that’s unrecoverable, that’s parent. It's not a meaningful number at any given quarter?
Jason Wells:
No, the majority of those costs for things such as advertising, compensation which is not recovered in the rate cases, are really cross-borne by the utility as below the line costs. They are not charged back to customers but those are essentially cost that are incurred at the utility level. So we have minimal overhead costs at the holding company.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Turnure with JPMorgan. You may proceed.
Christopher Turnure:
I wanted to understand, one, as it relates to the Buttes proceedings, you continued to settle claims even knowing that you are challenging the June 22 decision there. And then secondly, can you just remind me if you had appealed that June decision on any other grounds then just challenging the punitive damage element of it.
John Simon:
Christopher, John. Let me take these both. The first one, we are well aware that the outcome of our inverse condemnation motion could impact both the timing and valuation of any settlements. We are monitoring that very carefully. We really are gearing for the motion right now. And what we had some court ordered mediations to try to reach settlements where we have been very diligent and careful about not getting ahead of that motion. With respect to your second question, the company took a writ to the court of appeals on the trial judge's denial of our motion to strike punitive damages from the Butte case. That’s what's up on appeal right now and that appeal writ has been taken. So we are now in the process of briefing that issue before the court of appeals. There is nothing else before the court of appeals on Butte but as I mentioned earlier, depending on the outcome of the inverse decision, we would seek a writ to the court of appeals on that.
Christopher Turnure:
So, sorry, that’s for the punitive damage element only?
John Simon:
Yes.
Christopher Turnure:
So not an appeal of the entire decision?
John Simon:
Correct.
Geisha Williams:
You may want [indiscernible] what we are going to do on March 15.
John Simon:
And just as a reminder, on March 15, different issues and punitive damages, March 15 is the issue of our motion to get inverse condemnation dismissed out of Butte. So there is many things happening on the legal front in Butte. Punitive damages, getting those eliminated. And the inverse condemnation and getting that dismissed.
Christopher Turnure:
Right, right. What I was trying to distinguish was from that June decision other than the punitive damage element, how successful or unsuccessful were you on challenging that decision. Even though that goes back in time obviously.
John Simon:
Yes. On the punitive decision?
Christopher Turnure:
No, just on -- I guess, we could break it into two, just say obviously you didn’t want inverse condemnation applied there on what were your options at that time for that.
John Simon:
Yes. We didn’t take a writ to the court of appeals on the Butte judges initial denial of our motion to get rid of inverse condemnation. But we would do that now. I think what's changed as we have talked about, is the CPUC's decision on San Diego's WEMA case where the CPUC basically indicated that they didn’t believe inverse condemnation as a court was relevant to their decision on spreading costs. So that’s sort of the intervening fact as to why we have renewed our motion in Butte and that’s where we are on that.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. I hear you. It seems kind of surprising to me that outside of the CPUC rejection, you guys didn’t feel like you have a good enough legal case to challenge that up to a higher court at that time.
John Simon:
The basis for that denial, back in the summer, the original motion was the fact that there was no evidence historically of the CPUC denying cost recovery under inverse claims. Essentially the previous cases where inverse condemnation was applied to investor-owned utilities were settled at levels that were covered by insurance and therefore there were no cost recovery applications directly heard by the commission. Given that is the basis for the ruling this past summer and given the fact that the commission denied San Diego's WEMA application, we now have direct evidence that investor-owned utilities do not have the ability to adjust rates for the costs associated with inverse condemnation. So sort of facts changes pretty significantly over those six months.
Christopher Turnure:
Got you. Okay. Hopefully, you will prevail there. My second question is a little bit broader and speaks to one of the earlier questions. You have cut your dividend here, clearly sending a strong message but the CPUC does not seem to appreciate the gravity of this situation at all, in my opinion. So is there something else that you could do to really the point home that this is going to hurt customers in the end. Like you guys cutting your CapEx or taking some other action to protect shareholders.
Jason Wells:
Thank you for the question. I want to emphasize one part of that, the statement about the decision just around the dividend sending a strong message. By no way or no means was the underlying message a consideration for the suspension dividend. The decision to suspend the dividend was essentially governed by the California corporate code and our consideration of our ability to pay a lawful dividend under that code. That been said, as a result of that decision, it is strong evidence that the commission needs to evaluate the impact inverse condemnation is having on investor and utilities. We are aggressively pursuing multiple challenges and trying to bring awareness to policymakers and the state on this issue. We do believe given some of the comments that the commissioners and President Picker have made in other forums as well as a number of the messages that key policy makers and the state have made around the need to address comprehensive solutions for the impacts of climate change. We believe while the awareness of the issue is understood and we are working constructively to find a comprehensive solution.
Chris Foster:
Chris, thank you. This is Chris. Keira, thanks for helping us with the call today. It's 9 o'clock. I want to also thank everyone for joining us and have a safe day. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. Nickolas Stavropoulos - PG&E Corp. John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.
Analysts:
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Q3 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to introduced your host, Chris Foster. Thank you and enjoy your conference. You may proceed, Mr. Foster.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Jackie. And thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us this morning. Before I turn it over to Geisha Williams, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which are based on assumption, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's third quarter earnings call presentation. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that'll be filed later today with the SEC and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2016 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Chris, and good morning everyone. Given the recent wildfires impacting our customers and communities, our discussion today will be different from our usual earnings call. This morning, I will update you on what we currently know about the fires and I'll describe our restoration activity. I will address the efforts to identify the causes of the fires and provide an overview of the process from here. I'll also talk about how we're working to protect the safety of our customers and communities as we see this trend towards more extreme weather events continuing to increase. Jason will walk you through the financials of the quarter, and then I'll provide a few closing remarks, and then we'll take your questions. I want to start by sharing what we know about the extraordinary nature of the fires that swept across Northern California a few weeks ago. On October 8 and 9, PG&E service area experienced a wind event without precedent with some recorded wind dust exceeding 75 miles per hour. Numerous meteorologists have addressed the extraordinary nature of the weather condition with one commenting that it produced extreme winds beyond contemporary experience. These destructive winds impacted an area with trees weakened by years of drought and other environmental factors. Additionally, heavy rain and snowstorms last winter brought renewed vegetation growth. But with the heat waves of this summer and fall, this vegetation dried out again, creating an abundant source of fuel. Several wildfires struck at night and spread quickly, and they burned for days. Before the fires are fully contained, I met with community leaders and our team members in Napa and Santa Rosa; two of the hardest-hit areas and I had an opportunity to see the damage. What I can tell you is, during my two decades in Florida, I worked through many major hurricanes. And I've seen firsthand the destruction that hurricane force winds can bring to a community, but this was like nothing I've ever seen. The fast-moving fires brought expansive devastation and left little standing in their paths. Many communities and families experienced catastrophic losses. Numerous lives were lost and several thousand people lost homes and businesses. The people impacted are our neighbors, our friends and family, our own employees, and of course, our customers; and I want to extend our deepest sympathies to all of them. I also want to acknowledge the thousands of firefighters involved in the response and recovery efforts. I thank them and other first responders, including our own, for the heroic efforts. From the earliest hours, we maintained a singular focus on the life safety and well-being of our customers and communities. Our public safety actions included proactively turning off gas in some areas to support the efforts of first responders and keep our communities safe. In terms of outages, about 42,000 gas customers and about 360,000 electric customers were impacted by the wildfires. We assembled a restoration team 4,300 strong; made up of our own employees, contractors and mutual-aid utility workers. They worked around-the-clock for weeks to get our customers safely back on line following, of course, Cal Fire's lead after they established containment boundaries. As part of our restoration efforts, we provided back-up fuel and generation support to critical services like hospitals and local water agencies until they could be permanently restored. And our customer service team, they staffed evacuation shelters and local assistance centers to provide support to our customers in both English and Spanish. This was the largest restoration team we've put together since the Loma Prieta earthquake in 1989 and they did an outstanding job. Now, I know there's a lot of interest in how these fires started and how PG&E assets might have been involved in or impacted by the wildfires. Our communities deserve answers and we are committed to learning what happened. It's critical that we identify anything that will help us to keep our customers and communities safe in the future. That is our goal as we work with Cal Fire and the CPUC. Both agencies are conducting investigations of the wildfires and we will continue to cooperate with them as that work moves forward. It has been reported in the press, we have received a number of losses and are, of course, conducting our own extensive facts finding in this important matter as we prepare to respond. As we've previously reported, when we gained access to some affected areas, we found instances of wires down, vegetation near our facilities and some broken poles. In those instances where Cal Fire investigators where PG&E identified a site potentially involving our facilities, we submitted incident reports to the CPUC. These electric incident reports are factual in nature and do not reflect a finding of cause. To-date, we've submitted 20 reports. As part of our commitment to transparency, we have posted the submitted incident reports on our website following the CPUC's decision to do the same. We expect that once Cal Fire completes its investigation on the causes of the fires, it will release its findings through one or more reports. Now, given the complexity and size of the fires, we don't know when Cal Fire may issue its findings. In the meantime, we will continue to cooperate with investigators and regulators while keeping our team focused on providing safe, reliable energy to our customers and communities. Many of you have reached out with questions about the potential impact of the wildfires to the company's financials, and also about the doctrine of inverse condemnation in California. At this time, the known financial impact of the wildfires is limited to the cost of the unprecedented response and restoration effort, costs related to our liability insurance and some legal expenses. And Jason will cover these later this morning. As a reminder, California is an outlier when it comes to potential liability. California is one of the only states in the country where the courts have applied inverse condemnation liability to events caused by utility equipment. This means that if a Utility equipment is found to have been a substantial cause of a damage in an event like a wildfire, even if a Utility has followed all the rules and, in essence, has not done anything wrong, the Utility may be liable for property damages and attorney's fees associated with that event. We don't believe that inverse condemnation is an appropriate doctrine nor do we think it is appropriately applied to regulated utilities. We would challenge its application if that were to be the case in these events. However, if it is applied, then the CPUC should take action that is consistent with the purpose of the doctrine. That said, I want to be clear. This was an extraordinary confluence of events, and right now, it's simply too early to make an assumption about liability. What we can say with certainty is that PG&E is going to be crucial to the rebuilding and recovery in the communities affected, and we are committed to supporting that process. We've pledged more than $3 million to help support the community's recovery efforts and we are matching our employees' charitable contributions for wildfire relief. Employees from across the company had stepped up to volunteer their time to support the affected communities, and will be doing much more in the weeks and the months ahead. I know there's a lot of interest in our pole maintenance and vegetation management program, so let me address these as well. First, we routinely inspect, maintain, and replace our electric poles. This includes annual scheduled patrols, five-year visual inspections, an intrusive testing and treating on our wood poles on a frequency that significantly exceeds CPUC requirements. We also have one of, if not the most, comprehensive vegetation management programs in the country. Our vegetation management program manages about 123 million trees across the service territory, and every year we inspect every segment of the 99,000 miles of overhead line and we clear vegetation as needed. This is well beyond what is typical in our industry, where most utilities have a three-year vegetation management cycle or sometimes longer. Typically, we spend about $200 million every year to line clear or remove 1.3 million trees to mitigate both the risk of wildfires and to prevent electric outages. With the drought and the tree mortality crisis we've experienced in California, we have been expanding our vegetation management work since 2014. In 2016, we spent an additional $200 million, essentially doubling our typical vegetation management spending last year. We removed an incremental 236,000 dead or dying trees, and we enhanced our tree maintenance work with additional patrols in areas of high-fire danger, including a combination of boots on the ground, aerial patrols, and sophisticated LiDAR technology. Before I transition to Jason, let me say we know that this is a very difficult time for our customers and the communities impacted by these terrible wildfires. We're committed to their safety and well-being, and we're going to stand by them as they rebuild and recover. With that, I'll turn it over to Jason to take you through the financials.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate the concerns many of you have expressed following the wildfires. And I want to reiterate our commitment to transparency as we gather additional information about the financial impact of these events. This morning, I'll cover our third quarter results and then provide a couple of updates to our guidance for 2017. I will also briefly touch on some of the known items for 2018 and 2019. Slide 5 shows our results for the third quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $1.12 per share. GAAP earnings, including the items impacting comparability, are also shown here. Pipeline-related expenses were $20 million pre-tax. Our legal and regulatory related expenses came in at $2 million pre-tax. Fines and penalties were $11 million, reflect the incremental financial remedies in the proposed decision for the ex parte Order Instituting Investigation and that amount is not tax deductible. For the Butte fire, we had a few changes this quarter. We recorded third-party claims and legal costs of $368 million pre-tax. This was partially offset by accrued insurance recoveries of $297 million pre-tax. This total also includes $21 million recovered through one of our contractors' insurers. We have now recorded insurance recoveries up to the limit of our policy of $922 million. The net impact of these items is $71 million pre-tax. Finally, as we mentioned last quarter, in July, the court approved the shareholder derivative settlement. The pre-tax $65 million shown here reflects the $90 million in insurance proceeds, less $25 million paid in plaintiff's legal fees. Moving on to slide 6, which shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison from earnings from operations of $0.94 in Q3 last year and $1.12 in Q3 this year. We were $0.08 favorable due to the timing of taxes. The full amount of this line item affecting our results year-to-date will reverse in the fourth quarter. We were another $0.06 favorable due to the timing of operational spend during the year. We took the opportunity to bundle some of our work to execute more efficiently which created some delays. We expect this to fully reverse in the fourth quarter. Rate base earnings were $0.05. You can expect to see rate base earnings of about $0.05 next quarter as well for a total of $0.20 for the full year. We were $0.04 favorable due to the timing of the 2015 GT&S rate case decision which we received in August of last year. The year-to-date favorable variance of roughly $0.33 will fully reverse in the fourth quarter. A number of small miscellaneous items totaled $0.07 positive. As we mentioned previously, our GRC revenues were adjusted in 2017, resulting in a loss of the incremental tax repair benefits of roughly $0.25 annually, including $0.10 this quarter. Lastly, we had $0.02 negative for the issuance of shares. Transitioning now to slide 7. Today, we are reaffirming our guidance from earnings from operations of $3.55 to $3.75 per share. On slide 8, we've laid out our underlying assumptions for that guidance. Let me be clear that the guidance outlined here and all of my remarks today assume no material financial impact on the wildfires beyond the restoration cost, insurance reinstatement and legal expenses that will impact the 2017 results. Our current forecast estimate for cost related to restoration and repairs following the recent fires ranges from $160 million to $200 million. This includes an estimated $60 million to $80 million in capital. We expect to seek recovery for our restoration activities for this extraordinary event through our existing Catastrophic Event Memorandum Account process with the CPUC. I'll reiterate that it remains our objective to our CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise this year as well as in 2018 and 2019. In terms of additional guidance for 2018 and beyond, we intend to provide an update with our 2017 results on the fourth quarter call. Among other considerations, our forward-looking guidance will integrate the 2019 GT&S rate case which we will file at the end of this year as required by the CPUC. The 2015 GT&S rate case included multiyear plans for improving the safety of our gas system, including programs to replace segments of our pipelines and to redesign other segments to facilitate in-line inspections. The 2019 rate case application will include the continuation of those plans as well as work to comply with new regulation established to help prevent methane leaks from gas storage facilities. Turning to slide 9. There are a few changes to our items impacting comparability in 2017. We've removed the range for pipeline related expenses for the year. We estimate we'll incur about $90 million pre-tax to remove vegetation structures from our pipeline rights-of-way. As we near the completion of our pipeline rights-of-way program, we are working through some particular complex segments. The environmental permitting requirements of these geographically dispersed projects require an additional planning which will shift more of the cost into 2018. You can expect us to spend between $35 million and $60 million on this item next year. We expect the total cost of this multiyear program to come in between $450 million and $475 million which reflects a narrow range. The line items for both legal and regulatory related expenses and for fines and penalties reflect cost incurred through the third quarter. Butte fire-related costs, net of insurance reflects amounts recorded through the third quarter for third-party claims and legal costs, net of accrued insurance recoveries. We increased our accrual for third-party claims by $350 million, which means we now believe our liability could be at least $1.1 billion. This change reflects a number of additional claims that were filed during the quarter before a statute of limitations expired as well as our experience with resolving cases to-date. We plan to seek recovery of all insured losses up to the $922-million limit of our liability insurance. And we have now recorded that full amount for probable insurance recoveries as of Q3. To the extent our ultimate liability for Butte fire claims exceeds the amounts recoverable through our insurance or through our contractor's insurance, we would expect to seek CPUC authorization to recover excess amounts from our customers consistent with the state's policy of inverse condemnation. And an additional note on insurance. Following the recent Northern California wildfires, we reinstated our insurance policy for any potential future event. That will result in a fourth quarter charge related to the write-off of the remaining unamortized costs of the original policy. Including both the insurance costs and legal expenses, we expect wildfire-related costs of roughly $100 million in 2017. And finally, the shareholder derivative line reflects the net benefit I discussed in the quarterly results. Moving now to slide 10. We are reaffirming our equity guidance for the year at $400 million to $500 million, and we continue to believe that we'll be able to meet our equity needs into 2018 and 2019, largely through our internal programs. Again, that assumes no material impact from the wildfires. On slide 11, you can see we've reduced our CapEx for 2017 to $5.7 billion from $5.9 billion we previously provided. We've also increased our planned CapEx in 2018 from $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion. This is because we continue to see a shift of some of our capital work into next year, mostly in gas transmission and distribution where we have continued to look for opportunities to bundle some of that work to execute it more efficiently. In 2019 and beyond, we'll incorporate the capital spend for our Gas Transmission and Storage rate case. While final numbers will be included in our application, we expect the average CapEx impact to be on the order of roughly $900 million to $1 billion per year. On slide 12, our 2018 rate base is lower as we've removed roughly $400 million associated with capital expenditures we incurred above the authorized amounts in the 2011 through 2014 GT&S rate case period. Those expenditures are subject to audit. We've moved that rate base into 2019 because the CPUC's audit of that spending is still underway. However, we continue to pursue recovery of these expenditures. We are reaffirming our commitment to the dividend and our plan to reach a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% by 2019. Again, that assumes no material impact from the wildfires. And now, I'll turn it back over to Geisha for some final remarks.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Jason. I know we've gone through a lot of information this morning. And before we go to questions, I want to briefly emphasize a few important points. I want to say again, regardless of the cause of the fires, we at PG&E are committed to supporting our customers and the communities we serve as they rebuild and recover. We've recognized it as a privilege to serve them, and we will be here for them for the long haul. On the topic of liability, as we've said, it's premature to discuss any potential liability for the recent wildfires given that there has been no determination of the causes of any of the fires. However, it's clear that liability is a matter of important public policy, and California's inverse condemnation policy makes it an outlier on this issue. That represents a risk for the state and for all Californians as well as for the state's energy providers at a time when the state is increasing its investment in a bold, clean energy future. We need constructive solutions, and we're prepared to engage in that discussion with policy makers at the appropriate time. Now, as we look ahead, we continue to focus on the areas we've discussed on our recent call. First, operational excellence with safety is our top priority. On that note, I'm very pleased that the Institute of Nuclear Power Operators has validated our progress and praised our safety and operational performance at Diablo Canyon. Second, delivering a positive customer experience to ensure that we are the provider of choice for our customers. Despite a record-setting year of emergencies and severe weather, our customer satisfaction results show continued progress. And finally, positioning the company for long-term success. We continue to see a future defined by a much more complex grid that enables the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions consistent with the safe energy goals and is more resilient to extreme weather conditions, and PG&E is going to continue to play a vital role. To that end, over the last several years, five years, we've invested roughly $15 billion in our grid to develop a more flexible and resilient energy network, and our investments of around $6 billion in our electric grid over the next two years will continue to make that future a reality. And you have our commitment that we will remain focused on the fundamentals of our business as we go forward. With that, let's go to your questions.
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you for all the commentary and update on the fire situation. I realize it's difficult to say anything very definitive but I think you added a lot of color. Thank you. Just I want to make sure I understand on the Butte fire. Did you say the statute of limitations has now expired, so this new estimate of a total claims of $1.1 billion is basically – you're not going to see new claims from here. The question is whether that's a good estimate?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Jonathan, thanks for the question. We saw a key statute of limitations expire this quarter, and that was for personal injury claims. However, the statute of limitations per property extends for another year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And given that you have the finding of inverse condemnation in that fire back in June, it's reasonable to expect you'd have other property claims come in over the next year but you've made an estimate of what those might be in your number, I would guess?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. I can't speculate as to what others may do but we've tried to make an estimate here with our adjustments to the accrual to reflect what we believe would be the cost associated with those fires.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And then there's obviously been a lot of attention on this case relating to one of your peer utilities around inverse. And when we sort of dig in to some of that discussion, it seems that the other side is arguing that because there was never a court finding of inverse, they assumed that it would apply but it wasn't actually applied, that that somehow changes the circumstances. Can you guys comment at all on that, i.e. what's your view on that sort of disagreement, if you like?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Jonathan, this is Geisha. We don't believe negligence is applicable as it relates to inverse condemnation, and negligence is something that ultimately is going to be decided by a jury. It's complicated, it's not a bright line. And so when we think about inverse condemnation in the state of California, we believe that strict liability without the commensurate cost recovery would not be consistent with the underlying theory of inverse condemnation.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Understood. And then I had a related question actually on just the safety OII which is still sitting out there. I mean, obviously you've talked a bit about safety today. How much of that have you already implemented, all the proposals from the consultant, and how are you approaching what to implement or not to implement given the commission hasn't yet decided how much of it, it wants you to adopt?
Nickolas Stavropoulos - PG&E Corp.:
So this is Nick Stavropoulos. Good morning. Regarding the safety OII, right from the first time we received the report on the CPUC's consultant, we embraced the 68 recommendations that they laid out, and we've been working with the CPUC staff and their consultants to better understand some of those recommendations. We expect to have a significant percentage of those actually complete by the end of this year. We will have almost all of the recommendations either complete or well underway by midpoint of next year. There are five specific recommendations that were provided by the consultants that we really need feedback from the commission on, and so we look forward to that. But those recommendations are built into our safety plan, our company-wide One PG&E Safety Plan, and we are actively implementing those recommendations.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you. And just on one other issue. What would be the trigger for taking a charge on the Northern California wildfires? Are we waiting for the Cal Fire report essentially before that would happen, beyond the $100 million which, if I heard you right, is sort of restoration plus re-upping insurance cost?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Jonathan, this is Jason. I think it's way too early to discuss potential liability, if any, stemming from these fires. Obviously, we've got to let Cal Fire conclude its investigation. That will be an important part of sort of our consideration for when and if to record liability, but I wouldn't say that that is the sole determinant.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Could it be before then in some circumstances?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Really, I can't speculate at this time as to any potential timing for liability recognition. Investigations have really just begun, and so we're really just focused on cooperating with Cal Fire as they investigate the sources of these fires.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thanks for all the color.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Arnold. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I know inverse condemnation is very popular topic. I just wanted to make sure that I understood your perspective. So as I understand, your perspective is that if inverse condemnation did apply to utilities, then utilities should be able to recover those costs. And if I – I may have gotten that position wrong. But regarding your position, what is the path to be taken to attempt to clarify how, if at all, inverse condemnation should apply to utilities? Is that through the CPUC, is that through a court process or is that too early to say?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, Stephen, this Geisha. Let me go ahead and get started. So we don't believe that inverse condemnation is an appropriate doctrine, and we certainly don't believe that it is appropriately applied to investor-owned utilities. Whether and how inverse condemnation is decided to be applied is really up to, I believe, a court. We would challenge its application if, in fact, it were to be determined that our facilities were among the causes of these fires. We would challenge it to the extent that – and, again, if we were to not be successful in having inverse condemnation not be applied, then we would expect that the CPUC would take action that's consistent, really, with the underlying purpose of the doctrine, which is, of course, that our costs over and above insurance coverage should be shared by all customers.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That makes sense. Understood. And then I guess just looking forward at a high level, there have been a number of statements within the state around looking more broadly to address the impacts from climate change, and obviously wildfires are one element of that. Is there a potential here for a broader process within the state, really a forward-looking process, where you reassess what is the fire risk, what are the other risks from climate change, and how do we, as an industry, better address that proactively and sort of refine standards, beef up risk mitigation measures, whatever it might be? Is there a possibility for something more forward-looking to come out of these wildfires?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, I appreciate that question. As I think on it, as I look at this, in my mind, there's no question that we're seeing the impacts of climate change, and you're seeing what's happening in the Caribbean with these horrible hurricanes in Florida, in Texas with the incredible flooding, and now here with this truly extraordinary event that we experienced in Northern California. So as we take a step back and do everything we can to combat climate change, we also need to be taking actions to look at how do we make our infrastructure, how do we make society overall as resilient to the effects of climate change as possible. And we think, clearly, there's a role for the state to play in that, and we would welcome an opportunity to participate in a broader, more comprehensive discussion about the actions that all of us, all of us need to take to be able to better withstand the ravages of climate change.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. And Geisha, is your sense that there is a willingness within the state to try to engage in that broader dialogue?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, when I think about California and our leadership position on all things climate change, I think it's a natural progression. I certainly don't want to speak for anyone in the government, but I welcome the opportunity to be at the table and have an ability to talk about it from our point of view. Again, we've been such a leader for years, for decades, really, in looking at what we can do to really improve the quality of life for our communities, reduce the impact of climate change that I think, again, it's really a natural progression to start looking at adaptation as well as resilient strategies.
Nickolas Stavropoulos - PG&E Corp.:
Building on that, Geisha – this is Nick – that we've actually already begun the process of working with different elements of the communities. We've awarded several grants to help communities begin to understand the impacts of climate change and what we can do from a resiliency standpoint. And also, internally, for planning the long-term future of our electric and gas networks, we've begun to really take a hard look at the long-term impacts of things like higher winds, higher sea levels, more extensive rains, so that we can build more resiliency into our asset structure.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's very helpful color. Just one last point on just tax deductibility of fire expenses and damages, whatever those might be. I wondered if we could just get a quick refresher on how to think about the tax deductibility of costs that ultimately are borne by shareholders. How should we think about the ability to secure a tax deductibility for those costs?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Stephen, this is Jason. We'd expect to be able to deduct third-party claims if we were to be found liable for those, so those would be deductible for tax purposes. The only thing that, in our view, that would not be tax deductible would be fines or penalties coming out of any investigation.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. That's all I have. Thank you very much.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Byrd. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Thanks.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, Geisha, Jason. I don't know if you guys got to see the TURN letter from yesterday. But just at a high level, your point on inverse condemnation and spreading the costs seems to make sense. On the other hand, there's the kind of traditional prudency and all those things at the Commission. So how do you kind of tie those two together and argue against customers having to pay for the cost of this?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Steve, hi. It's John Simon. I'm the General Counsel here. Inverse is, as Geisha mentioned, a strict liability concept. Negligence is a completely different construct, and inverse really excludes the consideration of negligence. In other words, the premise of inverse is that the utility pays the property damages and attorney's fees without any showing that it's at fault and, in turn, the utility spreads the cost across all the customers and recovers those costs through rates. So as I understand, the TURN argument is sort of apples and oranges to where we are with inverse. So we see it differently.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And just tying into that, this seems to be getting back and forth addressed through ex parte or letters in the San Diego wildfire case. Do you get any sense that this could move into kind of a broader venue because it's such a big precedent-setting decision-making here. Is there any sense of maybe this instead of just deciding there gets broadened out into a different type of proceeding?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
That's a good question, Steve. I mean, clearly, this issue of liability is such a public policy. It's a significant California issue and there's no question that the decision in the San Diego Gas & Electric case will be very telling, and so not sure what the CPUC is thinking about at this point. We do know that they've delayed the taking action on it. I think that they're trying to be thoughtful and deliberate in understanding the ramifications of whatever decision that they ultimately end up making. But this issue of liability again in California, a state that has a history of extreme weather, extreme wildfires, so that case is one that has to be dealt affirmatively in the future. So we welcome an opportunity to be able to discuss it and, again, talk about constructive solutions that will be in the benefit of both state and as many customers.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then one just technical question, Jason, on the GT&S 2019 case. You mentioned $900 million to $1 billion of capital spend. Can you just clarify. Is that incremental to what is – right now, you're using flat in 2019 as your base case. So is the $900 million to $1 billion kind of incremental to that flat?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
No. Our guidance reflects the $900 million that we're spending this year. So for context purposes, for 2019 we're providing a range of $900 million to $1 billion which is, on one end, flat with our consistent spending and, on the upper end, it could be as much as a $100 million increase from where we are today.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. So it kind of suggests that that kind of level of spending will continue most likely through, assuming it's approved through this next plan?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's correct. Yes.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hey, guys.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hey.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning. So sorry to beat a dead horse, but I just want to – on the inverse condemnation point, I just wanted to clarify. If you win your argument, right, so either you are either not found to pay for cause or you're allowed to recover it from customers? Either way, you're not liable from a shareholder perspective at least. There's no cost that the shareholder is bearing for this except in the case of gross negligence. If gross negligence is found, then there are penalties which, obviously, will flow to the shareholder. Is that a fair way of thinking about it?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Cal Fire is doing their investigation. It's early as Geisha mentioned. I don't think it's productive for us to speculate on some of the theories in your questions. So I think it's just too soon to talk about sort of these concepts right now.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
So just, I guess, I'll keep it more broad. And then you touched on how you feel comfortable. But what I'm trying to understand is if you win the argument on inverse condemnation, in what scenario do you see the shareholder actually bearing any costs related to the fire?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well first of all, I mean, I think you've jumped ahead and assumed that we have liability, so that's why we're uncomfortable talking about really, what's in essence, a hypothetical situation here. Inverse condemnation is very clear about its strict liability but also providing the commensurate cost recovery from all the customers that have benefited, if you will, from the services. So it's a question for the juries at the end of the day to determine what the company will be liable for versus shareholders or anyone else for that matter. But it is so very, very early in this whole process to be able to provide you any kind of confidence one way or the other.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Fair enough. I totally understand. Is there, at this point, any internal studies being done to figure out what the maintenance at the levels that you are expected to do? Any results of that internal review, separate obviously from all the reviews that Cal Fire and others may be doing?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are doing extensive fact-finding given the lawsuits that have been presented before us, and so we're gathering data.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Fair enough. Okay. And moving on to the tax reform, and I know that this is clearly different from everything else that's going on. But tax reform obviously is coming or at least attempting to come in. Any color on how you think that impacts you, guys? Any changes in terms of what that would mean for your plan going forward?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
I mean, we're generally well-positioned when you look at all the various considerations in the tax reform, so we find that we're in a good place overall. But, I mean, Jason, anything you want to add to that?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. I mean, obviously, we're still very early in this process. But as we disclosed sort of on the fourth quarter earnings call earlier this year, we think we're, as Geisha mentioned, very well-positioned in that the recent discussions have included sort of a phase down of the corporate tax rate. We see that as beneficial to our customers in terms of refunding sort of the excess amount of taxes that we've collected in the past. And so for us, that would allow us to create sort of bill capacity for incremental capital expenditures in our system which we think would continue to improve the safety and reliability of our gas and electric systems.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah. Thanks. And that refund that you mentioned, Jason, that you still expect to go over a long period of time as the credit to customer bills effectively?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Absolutely. The details are going to matter on this one, but I think it's a reasonable assumption to assume that that would refund back to customers over essentially the book life of the assets.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Okay. Thanks so much, guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. Please proceed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Thanks. Can we just go back to what you said about the Butte fire cost? You said the estimate of the total potential liability is now in excess of your insurance policy. My understanding from prior conversations with you however is that you also had access potentially to the insurance coverage of your vendors. You talk about having gotten some of that. So are these costs above even limits of your policy, potentially shareholder exposures, or are you still confident that you have other avenues of recovery through still working with the insurance agencies of your vendors and other venues that you'll be able to fully recover these costs?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We've recorded insurance receivables up to the full policy limit of our insurance of $922 million. We've collected a little bit more than $50 million to-date from our contactors' insurers. So the $1.1 billion accrual for third party claims exceeds that amount. Consistent with the conversation that we've been having on the doctrine of inverse condemnation, we would expect to see recovery for those costs from customers and have filed to do so.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. But is there also a potential for a reduction in that amount from further recoveries from other insurance companies or no?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We will continue to seek recovery of incremental costs for third party insurance. But I'm not in a position to provide details on either one there. Their insurance levels are too sort of – nature of those negotiations.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Gordon. Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Turnure with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning, guys. I just want to follow-up on the last question on contractor insurance and maybe apply it to the current wildfire situation. Do you also not have information there on size? Do you, the – I guess contractors or other utility companies have an allowance to charge their customers for the insurance premiums and how can we get a sense of any kind of coverage there, if at all?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I think I understand your question. I'll try to answer it as I interpret it. We have recovery for our liability insurance cost through our General Rate Case process. There isn't a separate, direct recovery for contractor's insurance. Generally, our contractors procure insurance sort of in an ordinary course of business. We do not have, as I mentioned, direct subsidization of those costs. And just as for the Butte fire, we're not in a position to talk about the level of insurance those contractors maintain.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then, going back to one of the earlier questions or several of the earlier questions. I wanted to just make sure that we were on the same page with your legal strategy, let's say, that in I guess next week's decision on the SDG&E fire. Let's say that it does not go in the favor of SDG&E and the CPUC kind of makes its position known. Is there any change in specific legal strategy that you can take as you begin the third-party challenges for those claims for the Northern California wildfires?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi. This is Geisha. I just don't think it's constructive at this point to be speculating about what we might do if this happened or the other thing happened and kind of talk about legal strategies for things that haven't occurred yet. So, I'd just rather not comment on that.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Turnure. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hi, Geisha. Thanks for taking my question.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Michael.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
A process one, and I know this is hard. But in general or historically, how long does it take for Cal Fire to (a) do its investigation, but (b) put out reports? And is there any precedent for where it's not just one incident, but it's multiple incidents that occur over the same time before you get that?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
So, we don't have a tremendous amount of experience at this but our latest experience, I would say, was the Butte fire case. In that particular case, if you recall, the Butte fire actually occurred in September of 2015 and we received the Cal Fire report in April the following year. So, it took seven months. And if you think about that fire, while it was a terrible fire and very expansive, it was one fire. In this particular case, you have a series of fires all erupting over a several-day period. And so I think the complexity of this particular investigation is much higher. So, having said that, how long will it take? I don't know. When you look at the 2007 wildfires that occurred in Southern California, there were multiple fires and my understanding is that they issued multiple findings associated with those particular fires. And, again, that took some time. So, I think we're going to have to be patient. What I've read is the same things that you've read in the press, that they're intent on being thorough, on being accurate, and I think that they need the time to be able to get to what actually happened, what caused it, what were the different causes of the various fires. I think it's highly complex.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. And when you look at the Butte wildfire report put out by Cal Fire, and you compare that to the Cal Fire report which the proposed decision in the San Diego Gas & Electric case kind of relied heavily on. What are the similarities and what are the biggest differences between those two reports?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. I can't comment on that. I've obviously read cover-to-cover the Butte fire repot, but I'm not an expert on what the San Diego Gas & Electric report looks like. So I can't give you that comparison – the compare-and-contrast sort of answer that I think you're looking for.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Okay. Thank you, guys. One last one. How do you – you've got a lot of uncertainty now about potential costs and about potential insurance recovery, although I think you've disclosed there's kind of a cap of about $800 million of that. How does that impact your broader financial planning, right? When you're thinking about your capital budget, you're thinking about your dividends, you're thinking about your financing needs? How do you plan around that knowing that for a time period, whether it's six months or two years, we don't really know, you're going to have a good bit of large dollar potential uncertainty outstanding?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Michael, this is Jason. I think it's just way too early to speculate as to the impact these fires may have, if any, on our financing plans. As I mentioned in my remarks, we reaffirmed the guidance we had issued earlier with the assumption that there is no additional material impact from the wildfires. We'll obviously update you with more comprehensive guidance for 2018 as part of the fourth quarter earnings call. We will take into consideration sort of developments through that period. But right now, I think it's just way too early to speculate as to sort of any impacts on financing, given the fact that cause for these fires has not yet been determined.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you, Michael. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. Good morning.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey. So, a quick follow-up on Steve's earlier question on CapEx. Just wanted to follow-up. I know there was some discussion earlier in the year around $700 million related to the NTSB CapEx potentially. Where do we stand in terms of reflecting that into your expectations, both currently and prospectively in the forecast?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
I'm not sure I understand your question. What NTSB capital?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Well, I suppose earlier in the year, we talked about some additional safety capital. Maybe I think $300 million and change was potentially the update we were talking about. Is that still a prospect here or is – or maybe I can ask the question a little bit more generically. Have you sort of reflected all of the additional potential spending throughout the course of the year related to safety that we'd kind of talked about?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Julien, this is Jason. The $900 million to $1 billion that I referred to in my comments reflects the additional spending associated with the DOGGR regulations to improve – or to mitigate methane leaks for gas storage facilities. So, it takes into consideration our current programs to improve pipeline safety as well as the additional spending associated with reducing the risk of methane leaks on gas storage assets.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thank you, sir. You knew what I was talking about. Separately and distinctly, I just wanted to come back to just timeline here in terms of process. I don't want to talk about legal strategy per se, but just wanted to understand, in terms of process here, obviously, we're going to wait to see what happens in terms of Cal Fire, first and foremost. But then separately, there's the parallel process with respect to the, I suppose, establishing or not establishing a new policy on inverse condemnation. What happens once that decision comes out from your perspective next? Or is it up to you or would you expect to be making any kind of filing with respect to inverse condemnation at that point in time or really your principal channel of action here is to follow the Cal Fire and then leave it to the separate and distinct process with SDG&E in the South?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Julien, I think, again, it's really premature to be thinking about actions we might take if this happened or that happened. I think we're going to have to give – we have to be patient and I think we're going to have to give Cal Fire its due time to be able to complete a thorough investigation of what happened here, and then we'll go from there. I mean, at this point, I think to speculate on courses of action that we might take under different scenarios is just not constructive.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got it. But timeline-wise, what's the expectation for each one of these if you were to put something out there?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, it's – again, depends on what happens with the Cal Fire reports, when they issue it, what the findings are. And again, way too many things to speculate on it. Again, I don't believe makes a whole lot of sense right now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Totally understood. Thank you very much, all.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Smith. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed. Mr. Patterson, your line is open.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I'm sorry. Just want to touch base with you on how should we think about how most of these lawsuits may be filed? Do you think that they're going to be done under inverse condemnation or would they go to the negligence route?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Paul, John Simon. It's not clear. There's nine lawsuits filed. There may be others to come. They may allege one or both theories. I haven't studied the existing cases yet, so I can't comment on that. But it wouldn't surprise me if both are alleged. It's just we'll have to wait and see.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And if they – I guess with respect to the insurance, does that -would the insurance be applied equally under inverse condemnation or under the liability judgment scenario? In other words, could you allocate the insurance to the liability as opposed to the inverse condemnation? Did it work that way?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Our insurance covers claims for property under inverse condemnation. It could also cover claims under a negligence standard. So, it would apply to sort of any potential liabilities associating from these events.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
But you could allocate the claims from liability to the insure – you could take the liability and apply those claims before inverse condemnation, does that makes sense?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I think it's really way too early in a process to kind of begin to speculate with the portion claims. So, honestly, I think we just have to let Cal Fire concludes its investigation and work from there.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. That's it. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Patterson. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Mizuho. Please proceed.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Thank you very much. I guess, my first question, the $1.1 billion, is that an estimate of minimum, maximum, or you're just – or your best guess of likely damages for Butte?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
That's the low end of the range, Paul.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
It does reflect, Paul, the fact that we have settled now roughly a third of the cases. So, we're taking into consideration our experience with these claims. However, as I mentioned, we've received a number of new claims in this third quarter. We saw about a 50% increase in the number of claims, so there still remains some uncertainty as to the detail and nature of those claims. So, right now, I consider it a minimum, but it is reflective of our experience to-date.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Okay. And you've not identified sort of a high end of estimate?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We're unable to, at this point, identify a high end particularly given the fact that so many new claims came in the third quarter for which we don't have any detail today.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
And then I guess the insurance coverage for Butte was higher than the insurance coverage that you've identified as available for the California wildfires? Can you explain why the insurance amount ended up being less for this event?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We've seen a reduction in capacity the insurance markets here in California over the last several years. In California, there's been a number of notable full policy losses in the state of California. In addition, the state of California does have this unusual inverse condemnation doctrine. And as a result, what we've seen is a decrease of available insurance for liability.
Paul Fremont - Mizuho Securities USA, Inc.:
Okay. And then, I guess, can you discuss your vegetation practices or the trees that are located near power lines? I guess we've seen sort of – and reports that have come out from some of your peers, that they sort of track vegetation that's within certain distances from the lines and they basically make their decisions on what to do based on sort of updates?
Nickolas Stavropoulos - PG&E Corp.:
This is Nick again. Thank you for the question. So, as Geisha mentioned, we have a very aggressive vegetation management program across our 70,000 square mile territory. We manage about 123 million trees that are near and adjacent to our facilities. And over the last two years, we've doubled the amount that we have invested in veg management, that includes line clearing to remove parts of trees that are adjacent to our facilities, as well as removal of dead and dying trees. So, the program involves a year-round effort to identify these dead and dying trees through inspection processes where we use foot and aerial patrols; we use LiDAR, which is light detecting and ranging technology to identify the trees that need to be worked. We inspect all of our overhead lines every year, and we do second patrols in high-fire danger areas at least twice a year. In some areas, we do it as often as four times a year. So, it's a very aggressive program. There are specific requirements around line clearing, and it depends upon the voltage of the lines. And it can range up to a feet to as much as sort of 18 inches away from the facility. So, there are all sorts of different requirements depending upon where the facilities are located and the voltage of the facilities.
Chris Foster - PG&E Corp.:
This is Chris Foster. Nick, thank you for that. I think we're going to go ahead and wrap up the call. Again, thank you, everyone, for joining this morning. Jackie, thank you for facilitating the question, and have a safe day. Thank you.
Executives:
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. David S. Thomason - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.
Analysts:
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Ashar Hasan Khan - Visium Asset Management LP
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation 2017 Second Quarter Conference Call. At this time, I would like to pass the call to Ann Kim. Thank you and enjoy the conference. You may proceed, Ms. Kim.
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Mallory, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Geisha Williams, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. The deck also includes a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in our 2016 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Ann. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that we had a very strong quarter, one that was marked by continued impressive operational performance, encouraging progress on the regulatory front and solid financial results. I'll start this morning with an update on some important actions we've taken this past quarter to continue strengthening our safety culture and operations. I'll then highlight some key investments we're making to enable us to meet our customers' evolving expectations while also keeping bills affordable. And finally, I'll cover some of the recent steps we've taken to help advance California's clean energy economy and position PG&E for continued success. After that, I'll turn things over to our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, David Thomason, to walk us through the financials as Jason Wells unfortunately has laryngitis, although he will be available for some questions. Before we dive in, I'd like to review the final decision we recently received in the cost of capital case. The decision sets our allowed return on equity at 10.25% through the end of 2019, which is critical, given the nearly $6 billion in annual investments we will be making in our gas and electric system over that same period. Just as importantly, our customers will benefit through lower rates, a savings of roughly $100 million annually. While I recognize it was a challenging process, in the end the cost of capital decision is yet another example of how coalitions can achieve effective solutions. I'm gratified to add this to the list, alongside the Diablo agreement we announced last summer and the 2017 GRC all-party settlement. Let's move now to a review of our safety and operational progress for the quarter. As you may recall, in 2014 we were one of the first utilities in the world to be certified under both the ISO 55001 and PAS 55 safety standards. Every three years we have to go through a rigorous recertification process. The critical requirement for recertification is to demonstrate continuous improvement. Well I'm happy to report that Lloyd's Register, the internationally recognized third-party auditor, recently recertified us in both ISO 55001 and PAS 55. This is independent third-party confirmation of our continually improving safety culture and industry-leading asset management program. And it's something I'm extremely proud of. I want to take this opportunity to congratulate and thank our teams on a truly great accomplishment, one that reflects our laser-like focus on safety, not just in the gas operations but across the company. Staying on the theme of continuous improvement, I'd like to talk about the report that was issued in May in the CPUC's Safety Culture OII. We genuinely welcome and appreciate the thorough assessment and recommendations contained in the report. It's encouraging that the CPUC's consultant recognizes the numerous improvements we've made as a company to our safety culture. In fact, the first conclusion of the report affirms that, quote, "PG&E employees at all levels are committed to safety," end quote. That speaks volumes about the culture we're building and I couldn't agree more. Safety is at the heart of everything we do here at PG&E. Looking at the 68 specific recommendations in the report, most are fully consistent with our own safety plans. While there are a few recommendations in the report that we believe warrant further consideration by the CPUC in the upcoming proceeding, we agree with the vast majority of the recommendations and plan to implement them by the middle of next year. Moving on to our operational performance, we had a number of highlights this past quarter and I'd like to focus on one in particular. This past June, most of California was hit by a historic heat wave. Millions of customers experienced temperatures in the triple digits for nearly a week. Demand on our system hit levels that we haven't seen in over a decade, reaching over 20,000 megawatts on June 22, just shy of our all-time system peak in 2006. The good news is that less than 2% of our electric customers experienced a sustained loss of power during the peak outage day. Our strong reliability performance was even more noteworthy, given that one of our Diablo Canyon units was in a planned refueling outage during the same period. And in addition, at certain times during the heat wave, more than half of PG&E's energy supply was met with RPS-eligible resources. This experience is a testament to the long-term investments we've made to modernize our system and it demonstrates what we've been saying for quite some time and that is, we can deliver the clean energy that our customers want and still provide great safety and reliability. With our strong operational performance in mind, I would like to touch upon a couple of recent regulatory developments that help set the foundation for our future investments and will enable us to continue to deliver on our customer's evolving needs and expectations. The first is the final decision in our 2017 General Rate Case, which approved the all-party settlement between PG&E and our intervenors, including consumer advocates TURN and ORA. While this gives us a clear line of sight into our distribution and generation revenues for the next three years, it also enables our plans for making the infrastructure investments necessary to meet our customers' energy needs. For example, the GRC authorizes CapEx increases related to electric reliability improvement, network cable replacement and capacity increases to support distributed generation resources. These are the same types of investments that enabled us to provide the safe and reliable service during the recent heat wave. We're pleased with the outcome of the GRC decision which approves 98% of our rate base request and provides us with the resources needed to support continued investment in the grid. At the same time, we went into this rate case very mindful of the need to keep our customer bills affordable and the outcome represents a fairly modest 1% increase in our authorized revenues for 2017. The second regulatory development I'd like to mention this morning is our electric transmission case, TO19, the application which we filed yesterday at FERC. We're seeking a $74 million increase in revenues starting in 2018 for such key capital investments as system reliability work and substation modernization. It is through these types of investments and these continued investments in our grid that we can help ensure our system is stable and that we can continue providing the high-quality service that our customers have come to expect. The last area I'll cover this morning is the work we're doing to position PG&E for success in the future energy markets. In addition to the investments we're making to upgrade and modernize our grid, we are also leveraging our proximity to Silicon Valley to pilot new technologies and systems, in effect, beta testing, the grid of the future. The rapid growth of both large-scale renewables and distributed energy resources, or DERs, means that we as a grid planner and operator, we have to find ways of managing third-party assets that we don't own or don't control, assets such as private rooftop solar or electric vehicles. We have to work on this as a system rather than look at these individual items in isolation. In one of our many pilot projects we're working with General Electric, Tesla Energy and Green Charge Networks to test a distributed energy resources management system on three interconnected feeders this summer. The pilot includes private, residential rooftop solar with smart inverters, residential battery storage, commercial/industrial battery storage and a utility scale battery storage facility that PG&E owns and one which has the capability to sell into the wholesale market. What's unique about this pilot is that it gets right to the core of our grid modernization work, namely having visibility into all the resources that our customers are connecting to the grid and understanding how they respond when we, as a grid operator needs to manage them for the overall safety and reliability of the electric system. Now in order to succeed in the future energy market, we not only need to invest in the right technologies and systems, we also need to have the right policies in place to help us achieve the state's clean energy goals. You may recall that during our Q1 earnings call, I mentioned the portfolio allocation mechanism, or PAM, filing that PG&E and the other California investor-owned utilities jointly submitted to the CPUC. In the filing, we proposed to replace the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment with an updated approach that more fairly allocates costs and benefits between customers who choose CCAs or direct access, and those who stay with their existing energy provider. This is a critical issue where all parties recognize the need for reform. On June 29, the CPUC voted out a new Order Instituting Rulemaking to review, revise and consider alternatives to the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment. While the CPUC at the same time dismissed the PAM application, we view the new OIR as a clear recognition of the need for reform to ensure that costs are fairly allocated to all customers in compliance with the state law. The CPUC has recognized the issues with the current mechanism and we will have the opportunity to advocate with the other IOUs for the types of reform that were included in the PAM application. In closing, I want to reiterate that this has been a strong quarter. We continue to make steady progress in our safety culture and we provided impressive reliability for our customers despite a record-setting heat wave. We also achieved a number of positive regulatory outcomes, including the General Rate Case and the Cost of Capital decisions, which provide a solid foundation for the investments we will be making in our system. With that, let me thank you for joining us and let me turn things over to David to walk us through the financials.
David S. Thomason - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by covering our second quarter results and then provide a couple of updates to our guidance for 2017. Slide 4 shows our results for the second quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $0.86. GAAP earnings, including items impacting comparability, are also shown here. Pipeline related expenses were $29 million pre-tax for the quarter. Our legal and regulatory related expenses came in at $3 million pre-tax. For the Butte fire, we recorded insurance recoveries of $46 million pre-tax this quarter, including the receipt of $32 million from one of our contractor's insurers. This was partially offset by legal cost of $17 million for a net favorable impact of $29 million pre-tax for the quarter. Finally, we have a new item this quarter related to charges associated with the planned closure of Diablo Canyon. During the quarter, we reached a settlement with parties in our joint proposal to retire Diablo Canyon along with several other intervenors which provides clarity on the recovery of previously incurred license renewal costs and costs incurred for projects that will be canceled as a result of the retirement. As part of that settlement agreement, we have recorded a $47 million pre-tax charge for the unrecoverable portion of these costs in the second quarter. This settlement agreement was filed with the CPUC in May and we expect the final decision later this year. Moving on, slide 5 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations of $0.66 in Q2 last year and $0.86 in Q2 of this year. Consistent with last quarter, we were $0.15 favorable due to the timing of 2015 GT&S rate case decision, which was received in August of last year. This year-to-date favorable variance of roughly $0.30 will fully reverse in the fourth quarter. Rate base earnings were $0.07 for the quarter. Since we did not receive the 2017 GRC decision until May of this year, our second quarter results reflect two quarters of incremental GRC rate base earnings. You can expect to see about $0.05 in rate base earnings for each of the next two quarters for a total of $0.20 for the full year. A number of small miscellaneous items totaled $0.04 positive for the quarter, most of which is timing related and is expected to reverse by year end. There were two additional items from the 2017 GRC decision that contributed to a negative $0.04. As we mentioned last year, our GRC revenues were adjusted in 2017, resulting in a loss of incremental tax repair benefits of roughly $0.25 annually, including $0.07 this quarter. This was partially offset by $0.03 favorable for incremental revenues to recover depreciation and interest costs that we incurred in the first quarter. Lastly, we had $0.02 negative related to the issuance of shares. Transitioning now to slide 6. Today, we are reaffirming our guidance for earnings from operations of $3.55 to $3.75 per share. On slide 7, we've outlined the underlying assumptions for that guidance. I'll reiterate that it remains our objective to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise in 2017. One adjustment to our plan that I'll note here is we are reducing our 2017 CapEx range from approximately $6 billion to roughly $5.9 billion, which primarily reflects the shift in some of our gas transmission and distribution work into 2018. At the same time, we have increased the CapEx forecast for 2018 to $6.1 billion on slide 10 to reflect this adjustment. Turning now to slide 8. There are a few changes in our items impacting comparability in 2017. Butte fire-related insurance recoveries, net of legal costs, reflect recorded proceeds and costs through the second quarter. The shareholder derivative settlement was approved by the court on July 18 and we expect to record a net benefit of $65 million pre-tax in the third quarter. Lastly, we've included the $47 million from the Diablo Canyon-related charges that I mentioned earlier. Moving now to slide 9, I'm pleased to share that the high-end of our equity range has decreased from $600 million to $500 million. With two quarters under our belt, we have better line of sight into our financing plans for the year, coupled with a shift in some capital to 2018. On slides 10 and 11, we've updated our CapEx and rate base to reflect the changes I shared earlier. Additionally, as Geisha mentioned, we filed our TO19 case with FERC yesterday, which includes a roughly $200 million increase to CapEx over our TO17 settlement. This is reflected in the high end of our CapEx and rate base ranges. Finally, let's move on to slide 12. At the end of May, we announced that we are raising our quarterly dividend $0.04 to $0.53 per share. On an annual basis, this increases our dividend by 8% from $1.96 per share to $2.12 per share. This is another step in our commitment to target a 60% dividend payout ratio by 2019. I'll close by echoing Geisha's comments about how pleased we are with the results this quarter. We had favorable regulatory decisions in two of our most important cases, the General Rate Case and Cost to Capital, great reliability despite a record heat wave and we're continuing to provide shareholder value with another increase to our dividend. We continue to be confident in our ability to deliver on our plans as we evolve with a changing energy landscape. And while we aren't providing guidance beyond 2017, our objective is to earn the recently authorized return on equity across the enterprise for 2018 and 2019. With that, let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Could you just speak to what's driving the delay in the gas spending, the $100 million that you moved around from 2017 into 2018?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Jonathan, this is Jason. It really is – we started to bundle some of our work in our gas transmission and distribution business so that we can better execute that work. As a result, this is really just sort of a timing shift where the final execution and work will fall into 2018. That's why we're really just highlighting its timing in nature.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And the lower equity is sort of partly that and partly other things by the sound of it.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's right. I mean, we have better visibility to our financing plan with two quarters under our belt. So we have a final decision in the GRC. We've resolved a number of our pending items impacting comparability which we started the year with. So we have a better line of sight to the equity needs for the full year here in 2017.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So, I'm trying not to ask something else that will burn up Jason's voice, but on Diablo, obviously you have the settlement under the charge this quarter. Can you talk about where that proceeding sits? And I remember there was a piece of it that used to relate to kind of replacement that got pulled out of the current case. And is this – should we view this charge as sort of the end of the first phase effectively and how do we think about the second phase?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Jon, this is Steve Malnight. In terms of where the proceeding sits, yes, the record in the proceeding is now closed and we're awaiting a proposed decision from the judge. It has evolved and changed pretty substantially since it was originally filed. So as you noted, we filed the settlement with the joint parties to withdraw some of the procurement that we had proposed to do in this proceeding and instead defer that to the commission's integrated resource plan proceeding. So we still have the energy efficiency replacement that is in this case but we've deferred the remainder to the IRP. In the case we still have a cost for employee retention programs as well as the retraining programs. We have the community mitigation payments that we proposed. And as David mentioned in the call, we recently filed an additional settlement that resolved some of the uncertainty around – that would resolve some of the uncertainty around both the license cost recovery as well as canceled projects. So at this point we're awaiting proposed decision from the judge on all those items.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. You may proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi guys.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hello.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
My first – sorry. So my first question was on the power indifference charge or indifference adjustment around CCAs. Just want to understand a little bit more around the progress on that and when do you see timing of something happening around adjustments for that case? And how do you think that plays out over time.
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Yes, so this is Steve Malnight again. Let me just give a quick update on that. As we mentioned in the original proceeding, the Power Cost (sic) [Charge] Indifference Adjustment, or PCIA, is really designed to ensure that the state law is fulfilled to maintain indifference as some customers choose to leave bundled service and go to either CCAs or direct access. As we have pointed out and as I think the joint utilities pointed out, the current mechanism as it stands today does not fully allocate those costs. So for us, about 35% of those costs really remain with bundled customers, which needs to be corrected as CCAs continue to become a bigger and bigger part of the load. With the PCIA OIR that the commission recently launched, we view that as a real positive. The commission has clearly recognized the need for reform in that proceeding and has laid out some guiding principles that highlight the need to really maintain what we call bundled customer indifference, which ensures that the state law is followed. So the commission has not yet issued a schedule, but in many different proceedings in areas they have mentioned the desire to handle this on an expedited basis and move through that quickly. So we're very hopeful that that comes to pass. And we'll see and follow this proceeding as it goes. I would expect it will hopefully be resolved sometime in 2018.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks, guys. And then secondly, on the cost of capital, I know we have the good outcome around the 2019 timeframe. But just to understand from an ROE perspective and your authorized equity perspective, do you think that will be tougher to maintain your authorized equity at current levels going forward? And in terms of ROEs, do you think there's a risk at that time in terms of where the ROEs come out and how you think that plays out?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Praful, this is Jason. I think it's way too early to tell. I mean clearly when we litigate cost of capital, they're going to look at the equity ratio, they will look at our return on equity, they will look at the adjustment mechanism. But frankly, I think it's just way too early in that process to think about what's going to happen two years down the road.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Fair enough. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. A couple of CapEx questions. Just in the TO cases, and if you don't mind to address TO18 and TO19, the one that just got filed, what is the CapEx for those TO cases relative, I think it's to the roughly $1.1 billion that you're assuming in 2017?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Michael, this is Jason. In TO18, we filed for a CapEx of $1.3 billion. As you know, that case is still pending. Hearing is the next – the first quarter next year. Currently, we're forecasting spend for this year in our electric transmission business of $1.1 billion. That compares to what we filed in TO19 of CapEx of $1.4 billion.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So you filed for TO18 of $1.3 billion, TO19 of $1.4 billion. If you were to actually get that CapEx spend, that adds another $500 million to $600 million to your CapEx and then after bonus P&A, all that good stuff, it kind of creates an uplift potentially to rate base.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
It does create potential upside, but obviously we're going to have to work through the hearings process in that we just filed the TO19 case. So I have to work through what we anticipate to be settlement discussions early on and I think a lot of this will be tied up to the resolution of TO18.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. And finally, Geisha, when you look at other opportunities for rate base growth, and you've laid several out on the slides, which ones do you think have the potential to be the most material? Meaning, when I think about it on a dollar of capital invested, which ones do you see that are not in your current CapEx forecast or you can see, hey, that can wind up being a pretty big number over time?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah, you know the ones we've talked about historically which are outside this period is, what ultimately happens with high-speed rail, what ultimately happens with some of these really large state-sponsored projects. I think that provides an opportunity. More near term, I continue to think that there's great opportunity around electrification of transportation. I think at this continued improvement or opportunity for us to continue making investments and our bread-and-butter work, modernizing the electric lines and modernizing our pipes. So longer term, it's the things that are outside the range like the high-speed rail. Short term, it's our bread-and-butter work.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. You may proceed.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, good morning. Just quickly, you talk about our earnings at 10.4% on the entire enterprise. As you shift into a lower ROE with this cost of capital extension, is that a good metric to use for the whole enterprise earning at 10.25% or do we expect, as Michael just brought up, as the transmission rate base maybe continues to grow has the ability to earn above the 10.25%?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We're still signaling to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity in 2018 and 2019 which is 10.25%. We did file a TO19 for 10.75%. That's the 10.25% plus the 50 basis point adder that are for participating in the competitive transmission process. But the electric transmission rate base still represents a little less than 20% of the overall rate base. So that differential isn't very significant to earnings.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions. And I hope you feel better, Jason.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with MorningStar Capital Group. You may proceed.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. You answered my primary question on Diablo Canyon earlier. But we step back and think about the next however many years here before the proposed closure. At what point do you get clarity in terms of recovering any kind of stranded capital cost that haven't been depreciated or then potentially a bigger issue on the decommissioning costs?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Hey Travis, this is Steve Malnight again. So thanks for the question. I should say another important part of the existing proposal that I failed to mention before actually is the mechanism to ensure that the rate base for Diablo Canyon is appropriately depreciated through the rest of its useful life. So under our proposal, we will put in place the mechanisms to ensure that the depreciation is fully recovered in that plant by the time it shuts down. So that's part of the proposal we have now. On the decommissioning, as you know, that's going to be a very long-term endeavor at Diablo Canyon as we go through that. We have regular proceedings to look at the cost of decommissioning. We recently had the decision in the current case that did not fully support our estimated cost. But we will have the opportunity in 2018 to come back and re-file that. And as a part of our plans for decommissioning, we're now going to be conducting a site-specific study, which will look in detail at the estimated cost. So we will be litigating that again in 2018.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And when you talk about the fully recovered depreciation over this next period if you receive this terms of settlement, it would accounting-wise increase depreciation but then you'd collect those back from ratepayers through higher rates, is that what happened on a very high level?
David S. Thomason - PG&E Corp.:
This is David Thomason. We've already actually been depreciating Diablo to fully recover the asset balance by the end of its current license term, so there is no increase necessarily in depreciation as a result of that path.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. So it would be at a zero rate base number by that time?
David S. Thomason - PG&E Corp.:
Correct. So $2.2 billion roughly in Diablo rate base today, we hope to be or plan to be at zero by the end of the current license term.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Got it. Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium Fund Management. You may proceed.
Ashar Hasan Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Thank you. My questions have been answered. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you.
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp.:
All right. Well, this is Ann. It appears we have gone through the queue of questions. So thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We wish you a safe and happy day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending the PG&E Corporation 2017 second quarter conference call. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. John R. Simon - PG&E Corp. Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.
Analysts:
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
Operator:
Good morning. Welcome to PG&E Corporation 2017 First Quarter Conference Call. At this time, I would like to pass the call to Ann Kim. You may proceed, Ms. Kim.
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Mallory, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Geisha Williams, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. The slide deck also includes a reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures. We encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today, and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in our 2016 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Geisha.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. Let me start off by saying how thrilled I am to be leading this iconic company. This is a time of great change and opportunity in the energy industry, and I'm proud that PG&E is helping to lead the way to a clean energy future. This morning, I'm going to spend a few minutes reviewing our progress this past quarter with a focus on the three key objectives that I've set for the company, namely, building on our safety and operational performance, delivering on customer expectations, and positioning PG&E for success in the changing energy industry. After my remarks, I'll turn it over to Jason to walk us through the financials. But before I begin, I want to acknowledge the tragic death of Zackary Randalls, a customer service representative who was killed in a random active shooter incident in Fresno on April 18. You know, Zack had only been with the company a few weeks, but had already established himself as a valued member of our team. Our hearts go out to Zack's wife, their two young children, as well as Zack's family, friends and co-workers in the Fresno community. This was a senseless act of violence that has deeply impacted the PG&E team and I thank you for allowing me a moment to recognize this terrible loss. To start our business update this morning, I'd like to report on two major developments this past quarter in our continuing efforts to resolve the proceedings stemming from the San Bruno tragedy. First, on March 15, all parties in the shareholder derivative litigation reached a global settlement that resolved all claims. On April 21, the judge in the main derivative cases preliminarily approved the settlement, and scheduled a hearing for final approval on July 18. Second, on March 28, PG&E and the other active parties to the CPUC's Ex Parte investigation jointly submitted a settlement agreement to resolve the case through a combination of financial and non-financial remedies. If approved, these two settlements will move us substantially closer to resolving the San Bruno related legal matters. With those updates, let me begin by talking about our first key objective, and that is building on the safety and operational performance that we've achieved. As you know, safety is our most important responsibility and highest value. We've previously reported on the improvements we're seeing in public safety performance, such as faster emergency response times and reductions in gas dig-ins. Well, I'm happy to report that we're also seeing positive trends in employee safety. Both our OSHA Recordable Injury (sic) [Incident] Rate and preventable Motor Vehicle Incident Rate are down 20% in the first quarter of 2017 as compared to the same quarter of 2016. Even better, the number of serious motor vehicle incidents is down 65% this quarter as compared to the same period of last year. These improvements are especially notable given the tough weather conditions in which our employees had to work this past quarter, and they serve, frankly, as a testament to our employees' commitment to putting safety at the forefront of their work each and every day. Speaking of the weather, as we shared last quarter, in 2016 we delivered the second best reliability in the company's history despite a record-setting winter storm season. Well, Mother Nature wasn't quite finished with us, and strong winds, heavy snow and rain continue to pound our service area over the last few months. The good news is that we've been able to minimize outage time for our customers. In fact, nearly 96% of the almost 2.5 million customers who experienced sustained outages during our January and February storms were restored within 24 hours. Now, our strong performance can be credited to the tireless efforts of our employees, improvements in our emergency preparedness and response capabilities, and the investments we've been making over the years to modernize and upgrade our electric system. In the first quarter alone, we avoided more than 50 million customer outage minutes as a result of our investments in advanced grid automation and self-healing technology. As we continue to install this technology throughout our electric system, our customers will enjoy even greater reliability benefits in the future. Of course, we can't talk about reliability without mentioning the significant outage we experienced in San Francisco on April 21. This outage was not weather-related, but was caused by a fire at one of our substations. We know this outage inconvenienced many of our customers, but thankfully, no public or employee injuries were reported as a result of the incident. I'd like to highlight that we were already underway with a major $100 million upgrade to the substation, and we're also working closely with the City of San Francisco to address their questions in the wake of the outage. I'd like to turn, now, to our second key objective, which is delivering on our customers' expectations. Our goal is to be our customer's provider of choice. We know that energy customers today want more options and more control, and that's driving us to focus on enhancing our customers' experience through continuous innovation and improvement throughout our business; and, we're pleased to see these efforts actually paying off. For example, we recently received the results of our annual customer satisfaction survey for our gas transmission business, which showed the second highest rating in the 20-plus years we've conducted this survey. We also recently received EEI's 2017 Award for Outstanding National Key Accounts Customer Service. Votes for this award were cast in a nationwide open ballot by a pool of national commercial customers that include some of the country's largest, most sophisticated and most demanding energy consumers. We're proud of the progress we're making with customers and we've remained focus on continuing to improve the quality of our service. As we continue to invest in our system to provide customers with the level of service they need and expect, we're also committed to affordability. Now, earlier this year, we announced $300 million in cost efficiency measures for 2017. I'm happy to report that we're on track to achieve the savings this year and, as we've mentioned before, this effort should be viewed as a first step in an ongoing focus on maintaining affordable service for our customers. I'd like to turn, now, to our third key objective, positioning PG&E for success in the changing energy industry. To us, success goes hand in hand with enabling California's clean energy economy, a topic I'm particularly passionate about. With the fate of the Clean Power Plan in question, I've been getting inquiries about how we see the national political environment affecting our business strategies on clean energy here in California. We believe that, regardless of what happens at the federal level, California will continue to lead the way in transitioning to a clean energy economy and we are absolutely committed to remaining a key partner in the State's efforts. As we think about California's Clean Energy Future, we know that some changes will be needed in regulations that mirror market changes that have taken place. So, for example, last week, PG&E, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric collectively filed an application at the CPUC proposing to update the mechanisms used to ensure a fair allocation of energy supply cost to those customers that choose to depart for either CCAs or Direct Access providers. We are proposing to replace the current mechanism, which is known as the PCIA, the Power Charge Indifference Adjustment and which, by the way, all parties agree is in need of reform, with an updated approach that more fairly allocates costs and benefits. As California continues to engage in discussions on the Utility of the Future, we view this as a foundational step for the continued growth of CCAs or other choices that our customers may have in the future. Beyond energy supply, one of the most promising clean energy opportunities in California is electrification of the transportation sector. Transportation accounts for about 40% of California's GHG emissions. Governor Brown and the California Air Resource Board have both signaled their desire to see a dramatic increase in the number of zero emission vehicles in California. So, it's clear that electric vehicles will play a critical role in helping the State achieve its carbon reduction goals. The CPUC's approval last December, we're actively kick starting our $130 million pilot, which, by the way, is the nation's largest utility infrastructure deployment to support charging of light duty EVs. At the same time, we're also continuing to work with innovative partners to pilot new programs, technologies and approaches in the EV space. So, for example, last December, we wrapped up Phase 1 of our smart charging pilot with BMW. Over the 18 months of the pilot, we were able to shift nearly 20 megawatt hours of charging in response to changing grid conditions. We're excited to support the next phase of this pilot, which will test the feasibility and the value of more active charge management. So, to close, I want to reiterate my confidence in our future. We remain focused on continuing to deliver safety and operational excellence in meeting the needs of our customers and, at the same time, we are as committed as ever to working with the State to achieve its clean energy goals. We feel good about the opportunities this represents for PG&E and for our customers. Thank you for your time today. And with that, let me turn it over to Jason to walk us through the financials.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and hello, everyone. I'll begin by reviewing the first quarter results, and then quickly cover the 2017 outlook. Slide 4 shows our results for the first quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $1.06 per share. GAAP earnings, including the items impacting comparability, are also shown here. The pre-tax numbers for the items impacting comparability are in the table at the bottom of the page. Pipeline related expenses were $28 million pre-tax for the quarter. We incurred legal and regulatory related expenses of $4 million pre-tax. Fines and penalties were $60 million pre-tax for the quarter. This includes the planned $47 million related to the San Bruno penalty decision and disallowances imposed for ex parte communications in Phase 2 of the Gas Transmission and Storage rate case decision. We have now fully recognized the penalties imposed from these two decisions. This item also reflects a $13 million charge as a result of the settlement that we reached at the end of the first quarter in the Ex Parte Order Instituting Investigation. Butte fire related costs net of insurance were $3 million pre-tax and reflect legal cost associated with the fire. Finally, we booked revenue of $150 million pre-tax for the quarter, which reflects a recognition of the gas transmission revenues in excess of our 2017 cost of service. We have now recognized all of the under-collected revenues associated with our 2015 Gas Transmission and Storage rate case. On slide 5, you'll see our quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of $0.82 in Q1 of last year, and $1.06 in Q1 of this year. We were $0.15 favorable as a result of the timing of the 2015 Gas Transmission and Storage rate case decision, which didn't allow us to recognize incremental revenues until the third quarter of 2016. This item is purely timing in nature and will reverse by year-end. We were $0.06 favorable as a result of tax benefits associated with share-based compensation. There was an accounting standard change last year and we're now booking the tax impact of our annual equity compensation true up through earnings rather than equity. Rate base earnings were $0.03 for the quarter. Miscellaneous items amounted to $0.05 favorable for the quarter, which includes tax timing differences that will reverse by year-end. In previous years, we had shown tax timing as a separate driver, but we don't expect the quarter-over-quarter changes to be as significant in 2017. A delay in the timing of our 2017 GRC decision resulted in an unfavorable $0.03 for the quarter. This is primarily driven by incremental capital costs, such as depreciation and interest, without offsetting revenues. The driver for this particular $0.03 is timing, but as a reminder, we do expect that net impact of our 2017 GRC revenues and related costs to be roughly $0.25 negative for the year due to the loss of the incremental tax repair benefits. Additionally, if the proposed GRC decision is approved without modification, we'd expect to see an increase to rate base earnings of approximately $0.08 on an annualized basis. Finally, we had $0.02 negative for the increase in outstanding shares. Transitioning, now, to slide 6, we are reaffirming our 2017 earnings from operations guidance of $3.55 per share to $3.75 per share. Our underlying assumptions are on page 7 and are consistent with what we shared last quarter. It remains our objective to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise as a whole. Moving to slide 8, we have several updates to our 2017 items impacting comparability. First, with respect to our rights-of-way program, we had previously shared that the overall cost would not exceed $500 million. While the current year range for pipeline-related expenses is unchanged from last quarter, we're pleased that the overall cost of our rights-of-way program is now expected to range from $425 million to $475 million. We do, however, expect a small portion of the work will now fall into 2018 due to permitting challenges. Second, as a result of the settlements we've reached in the ex parte investigation and the shareholder derivative lawsuits in the first quarter, we expect our legal and regulatory cost to come in around $10 million for the year. We had previously expected these costs to range from $10 million to $40 million. Third, fines and penalties now reflect the $13 million in remedies settled as part of the ex parte investigation. The CPUC has not yet ruled on the settlement and the ultimate decision may modify this amount. We had previously expected fines and penalties to be roughly $45 million. Finally, we've added a new item that reflects a settlement we reached in the shareholder derivative lawsuits. If the settlement is approved without modification, the impact would result in a gain of approximately $65 million net of certain legal expenses we agreed to pay on the plaintiff's behalf. We are reaffirming our 2017 equity needs on slide 9 with a range of $400 million to $600 million. In 2018 and 2019, we still expect our equity needs to be met largely through our internal programs, which historically have been approximately $350 million annually. On slides 10 and 11, we are reaffirming our CapEx and rate base guidance through 2019. I wanted to highlight one new item with potential upside to our capital plan. As new gas storage regulations are adopted, we'll need to invest capital in our system to comply with the new regulations. We should know more about the new regulations later this year. Finally, we recently had a development in our cost of capital case. Last week, the proposed decision approving the all-party settlement was withdrawn from the CPUC's April 27 agenda. This was disappointing, particularly given the constructive efforts that went into the settlement in the proposed decision. We remain confident that the all-party settlement, which was developed with investor-owned utilities and consumer advocates, is in the best interest of our customers, and we look forward to working with the CPUC and settling parties to reach a timely resolution of this case. While we are not providing longer-term EPS guidance, it remains our objective to earn our CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise in 2018 and 2019. I'll close by saying we're off to a strong start in 2017. We continue to have solid organic growth with expected capital spend totaling approximately $18 billion over the next three years. We're continuing to target above average dividend per share growth with a 60% dividend payout ratio by 2019. Combined, these factors make for an attractive total return. So, with that, let's open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah, hi. Good morning. Can you hear me okay?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yes.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Steve. Yes.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Okay. Great. Just on the cost of capital case and delay, do you have any more color on why the CPUC delayed a ruling?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Steve. This is Geisha. No, we really don't; not at this time. We still think it was a great settlement that took a long time to sort of hammer through. We think it's in the best interest of our customers, as Jason said. And, you know, the CPUC has a really long history of supporting settlements, especially all-party ones, so we remain optimistic that once we get better insights of what's the concern, if there is a concern, that we'll be able to get it approved.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And do you have any sense on when you might get more insight into that?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Well, the ex parte ban was – for cost of capital was just lifted on Thursday. So, we are trying to meet with the Commissioners. We have filed for having an ex parte conversation and, as soon as we have those conversations, we'll have a better view; but, we have not had those conversations, yet.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then, one other question just – Jason, when you were going through the slide related to the, I guess, it was on the earnings, but you were talking to the GRC and kind of an $0.08 impact to rate base. I lost track on what you were saying there. This is back on slide 5, when you were talking to the timing of the GRC and what the potential proposed order would do.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Sure. Thanks, Steve. Generally, we would see growth in rate based earnings of about $0.05 a quarter on an annualized basis. This quarter, it's only $0.03 because we don't have a final decision in our GRC. And what I was pointing out is, once we've received that final decision, assuming it's voted out without modification, we'd expect to see an incremental $0.08 for the year in additional rate based earnings. So, this quarter, our growth in rate based earnings were slightly lower because we didn't have the final GRC decision.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Good morning, guys. Just on that last point, is the issue that as long as you don't have a decision, you'll continue to be about $0.02 shy of where you should be, and so the catch-up, when you do get a decision, is $0.08.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. Good morning, Jonathan. Yes. Yeah, that's the way to look at it is, for the full year, we expect this to be roughly $0.05 a quarter.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
The longer that we don't have a GRC decision, we will be short that $0.02 on a quarterly basis.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. I got it. Thank you. And then, could you give us a sense, Jason – I'm not sure how relevant this is given the balancing account, but there is lot of volatility in the tax line in this quarter. What is a sensible effective tax rate to be thinking about for the year?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
You know, I think our effective tax rate for the year is kind of roughly about 18%. It's hard to necessarily project a long-term effective tax rate. I'll say the driver for the low effective tax rate is mostly the flow through accounting treatment for tax repairs. And while our $6 billion of CapEx remains similar for each of the next three years, the composition of that spend does change year-over-year. And so, there will be changes for the portion of that capital spend that is eligible for tax repairs treatment. So, I wouldn't necessarily project that 18% effective tax rate for 2017, beyond 2017.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. But at least for this year, that's a reasonable number?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
It was slightly lower in the first quarter, given the discrete item that we had related to the stock-based compensation accounting change, but that's a reasonable expectation for the full-year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I wanted to go back to slide 11, where you lay out some potential future updates, and I guess excluding the rate cases, there are a number of other items on that list. Could you expand a little bit on potential timing for us to be thinking about just an unusually large number of potential areas of future growth, and any color you can provide in terms of just how we could think about timing there?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Sure. I think most of the opportunities outside of the rate cases are longer-term in terms of rate base increases; but, to give some context, the new item that we highlighted, gas storage regulations, those final regulations should be issued this fall in 2017. We'll have to see those final regulations to see sort of the compliance period, but we'd expect that CapEx to begin shortly thereafter. So, it would start to impact 2018, 2019. In terms of the future transportation electrification, we just filed for medium and heavy-duty vehicles back in late January. We're going to have to work through the CPUC process on that. So, again, I think, to the extent that we start to have spending in this sort of three-year time horizon, the rate base impact will probably be on – will be 2019 and beyond. And then, the State infrastructure modernization projects, those are really much longer term in nature. Those are probably projects over the next five years, seven years. So, hopefully that gives a little bit of color in terms of the timing of that spend and potential rate base increases.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah. No, that's very helpful. Thank you. And then, just thinking about your overall cost structure, I know you all do a lot of work thinking about benchmarking your cost position and potential opportunities there. I just wanted to check in terms of progress of your work and the outlook, broadly speaking, in terms of what you might be able to do with your cost structure over time.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Steven. This is Geisha. We're really focused on affordability, and part and parcel of that is taking a hard look at our cost structure. And as we mentioned, we had that announcement earlier this year with the $300 million efficiencies. That should be viewed very much as a first step, right. We are in a journey to continue to drive cost out of our business for our customers' affordability sake. So, you can expect to see more of that coming from us in the years to come.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. Is there a natural sort of cadence in terms of that, Geisha, or is it we'll just stay tuned and that's sort of constant, and so there is no natural point at which we would have a better sense of where you're headed?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
No, absolutely. We have an integrated planning process that is very disciplined, very regimented, that's repeatable and very, very, very focused on really looking out five years at every given point in time. And so, you shouldn't expect a particular announcement, a particular sort of a discreet discussion around that, but just very much built into the way we're running the business, very much looking ahead. What do we need to do? How do we get there? What are the specific objectives and plans that we need to put in place? And part of that is a focus on affordability. So, it's just a natural part of the way we're running the business.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Very good. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. You may proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning. Can you hear me?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Julien.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Excellent. So, just to follow up a little bit on the last question, if you can, expand a little bit on SB-887 and just the potential expansion on the safety-related spend, I suppose it is. Can you talk about what you're looking to get out of DOGGR as these rules are finalized? Like, as we see these rules announced and affirmed, what elements in particular are you looking to get clarity on that would drive the higher CapEx contemplated?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
There's sort of two principal parts to that regulation; one is sort of the incremental leak surveying and leak detection activities that will need to occur. That is primarily expense in nature. The other one will be sort of the well retrofits to make sure that we prevent unintended releases of methane, and that's really where sort of the capital costs will be driven. And ultimately, gas storage kind of as an industry has had its challenges, economically, and I think what we're working through with the regulations is just how significant those retrofits are in light of the need for storage in California and the need to prevent future unintended releases of methane. So I think we'll have to continue to follow that development. Like I said, I think we should see final regulations issued this fall here in 2017.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. And then, subsequently, on the TO case, is there any chance that you settle the 18 case at this point, and how should we think about outcomes in light of the latest court dynamics?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We have a long history of settling the TO rate cases. I think we've settled essentially the first 17. This is a change. I would say that it's probably less likely than it has been in the past, but we're still open to settlement discussions, considering the appropriate terms.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Perhaps, if you can clarify on that, was the decision to move, or at least the period for settlement pass, was that prior, if I understand right, to the judicial outcome of late, and does that actually change the potential for a settlement at this point, given the less than clear policies at FERC?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I mean – no, I don't directly – I wouldn't link the two. Ultimately, when – if we were to fully litigate this case, we would need a full set of Commissioners at FERC. But I wouldn't necessarily link the changes at FERC with settlement discussions on this case. But there are a number of California interveners that are challenging, essentially, the planning for the Transmission Owner-related spend. Essentially, about 40% of our Transmission Owner spend is approved by the Cal-ISO. The remaining 60% really relates to things like substation modifications and isn't necessarily in the purview of the Cal-ISO. I really think the focus on litigating this case is making sure that there is a full review of the entirety of the capital spend associated with our Transmission Owner rate case.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So, sorry to belabor it, but to be very clear about this, in fact, what you're saying is it's principally an issue on exactly where capital is allocated rather than necessarily a stumbling block around return on equity. I mean, obviously, there is gradients in each, but would that be accurately capturing why you've been unable thus far to get that settlement done?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I mean, I think it's one of the components, the planning, but certainly, our return on equity is a factor, as is depreciation rates; the typical challenges of any rate case process.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Excellent. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Just a couple of questions. First of all, cash flow wise, do you anticipate seeing a pretty sizeable improvement in your cash flow metrics after 2017, given the fact that CapEx at the $6 billion is kind of flattish from 2017 levels?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Michael. This is Jason. I wouldn't necessarily guide to that in 2018. We've got a number of factors that kind of work both ways, in addition to just sort of the annual volatility associated with commodity costs and recovery of our procurement costs. One of the factors we see impacting our cash position here in this State is the incremental vegetation management work that we are pursuing as a result of the drought and bark beetles. The mechanism for recovery of those costs is generally about three years in nature. And so, while we see improvement in some areas of our cash flow, we see extending terms in other areas. So, I would really guide towards sort of longer-term financing needs to be driven by rate base as opposed to sort of underlying cash flows.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. I would just think that if rate base growth starts to slow down because CapEx flattens out, what normally happens is D&A gets recovered. So, that would drive kind of an improvement in long-term CapEx, unless rate base doesn't flatten.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We are seeing that – a little bit of that improving, but as I mentioned to you, the incremental costs related to the drought and bark beetle are roughly $250 million annually. And as I said, that takes about three years to recover; so, we do see offsetting factors.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. One other thing, when you think about the upcoming electric TO cases, not the one that's underway, but for kind of the 2018, 2019 year, as well as the upcoming GT&S case, what do you see as the moving parts that could influence CapEx levels in either of those businesses?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I really think it's going to come down to – we've ramped up over the last several years, particularly in light of pipeline replacement, substation modernization. I think those levels of safety-related investments and grid modernization are going to probably continue at sort of the current pace. I think, really, the upside that we see is continued movement, particularly on the State infrastructure modernization work. And I think it's going to be important to follow what happens with high-speed rail, in particular.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, guys. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. You may proceed.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Hey. Good morning. I wanted to jump to Steve's earlier question, I guess, with cost of capital, and you had the whitepaper published in the Commission, then it was withdrawn from the agenda. Is your expectation that the final order that's approved for the cost of capital is consistent with the settlement, or are you expecting changes from the settlement?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Anthony. This is Jason. I think it's too early to speculate. As Geisha mentioned, and as I mentioned, we think that this was a very constructive settlement that we worked with consumer advocates to establish. We do think it was in the best interest of our customers, and so we're looking forward to understanding why the commission withdrew the proposed decision and, ultimately, working collaboratively to resolve this timely.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. If the scenario occurred where the Commission tinkered with it or haircut it – the settlement was for two years. Is the utility able to pull out of it, if an order comes out that lowers it, but it's over a two-year period, like we don't want to be at risk of a longer-term cost of capital that's lower? Is that an ability to pull out of it, then?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We would have the ability to comment on any proposed modifications to the settlement. Our focus is – we worked hard with all the interveners in the case with our sister utilities here in the State. We still think this is a very constructive settlement. And so, our intention is to understand any questions the Commission may have with respect to the settlement terms and work through the resolution of those questions with them.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan. You may proceed.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. I wanted to get an update on the Butte fire situation. If I remember correctly, there was a decision from the CPUC on that relatively recently. Kind of where are you now? What are the next steps on that?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Chris, this is John Simon. I'm the General Counsel here. You're right. Recently, the Safety and Enforcement Division of the CPUC issued two citations against PG&E, three violations; the total for $8.3 million. The bulk of the citations is SED's view that PG&E or its contractor failed to remove a tree that came into contact with our line. We're currently evaluating the citations. We have 30 days to do that. Our view is we need to evaluate it in the context – the overall context of the wild fire situation here in California, considering that we also have a comprehensive veg management program and we're in an extreme drought and, as Jason referred to, bark beetle situation. So that's where that is right now.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Are there any other things that we should be aware of there, kind of private litigation or anything that would kind of flow from that over the next couple of years?
John R. Simon - PG&E Corp.:
At this point, no. It's too soon to say whether those citations would have any impact on liability or the litigation, but we're evaluating it now.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. That's all I had. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. You may proceed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Follow-up question on the Butte fire. I recall you had given us an estimate of what you thought the total claims were going to be relative to your insurance coverage in the past. Can you update us on that? And also, can you explain, I think we've had a discussion about this, why we shouldn't think about sort of your maximum available insurance coverage as being sort of a number over which there would then be shareholder liability because your vendors also have insurance, which will be tapped to deal with those claims?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thanks, Greg. This is Jason, and you're correct. Over the course of 2016, we've recorded an accrual for about $750 million related to claims associated with the Butte fire. That represented both property damage as well as the risk associated with personal injury claims. That continues to be our best estimate of the total accruals. We have yet to be in a position to estimate the high end of the range. We are still working through the details of the claims in that process, which will ultimately be a lengthy process. That $750 million in total claims compares to about $900 million that we maintain in insurance. And as we've discussed in the past, sub-contractors actually execute this work and those sub-contractors maintain standard insurance associated for these activities. So, we would seek recovery, ultimately, from both our insurers as well as our subcontractors' insurers, if – for the claims associated with the Butte fire.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So, to think about the math, once we come up with a total number in terms of claims, that would then have to be absorbed by some combination of what their insurance ultimately pays for and what your insurance ultimately pays for. And so, the totality of your insurance coverage is not necessarily the arbiting factor on when or if the equity (40:04), correct?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's correct. Yeah.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. You may proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thank you. Hi, guys.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Good morning. First question I had was on CCAs, and you've talked about a new proposal. Just wanted to understand any key points in the new proposal and how that helps reduce risk as more migration happens towards CCA going forward?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Hi. This is Steve Malnight from our Strategy and Policy team. So, let me field that one. I think it's important to remember, first, when CCAs really formed, and as the legislature has continued to reinforce, the legislative intent here is that, when a customer or community chooses to go CCA, the customers who remain PG&E bundled customers should be indifferent to that choice. In other words, any costs that were borne in our energy supply portfolio for those customers who eventually choose to go CCA, they should take those – their share of those costs with them so that customers who remain behind are indifferent. The mechanism that the Commission has put in place to accomplish that, as Geisha said, was the PCIA. And that mechanism, over time as CCAs have grown, has become more distorted. It's not as effective at fully passing through those costs. So, what we see today is that about 65% of the costs actually are passed through to customers who go CCA and the rest remain with our bundled customers. Now, that was not a significant issue when CCAs were really small and served a small portion of the load, but we're currently forecasting that by the end of this year they'll be at 13% and growing to 38% by 2020. So, in order to really build a sustainable future for those CCAs and for other choices, as Geisha mentioned, we've got to make sure we put in place the right foundational mechanism. So, the PAM – the difference in the PAM versus the PCIA is that it uses – rather than using administratively set benchmarks to try and value the portfolio that we have put together, it uses actual market prices with true up mechanisms. And importantly, going forward, when – under the PCIA, when a customer departs, they bear their portion of the costs, but they receive no benefits from the portfolio we've currently accrued. And under the PAM, the renewable attribute to the portfolio we've accrued and the resource adequacy would actually be transferred over to the CCA for them to use in their portfolio to continue to serve customers. So, using the combination of transferring benefits and using market prices, we feel the PAM is a better way to really value the current portfolio and assure those costs are evenly shared. And in doing that, we build the foundation for continued growth.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. That makes sense. And clearly, the allocation of cost, like you said, would be much more fair. The question, then, is, given the quick migration – or an increased migration to CCAs, if this process takes time, what kind of risk do you foresee if it takes a few years for this entire change to go through?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
Well, I think the plan in the proposal in the PAM application is that the PCIA would be fully replaced by PAM. So, for customers, as CCA growth continues, any customers or any communities that have gone CCA would shift over to the PAM mechanism, which would enable us to fully allocate those costs. Having said that, I think you're right. There is a pretty rapid transition happening in the State and I think we've made it pretty clear to folks that we think it's important that we act on this PAM application quickly so that communities that are considering going CCA in the future will have the best information available to make that decision. So, we're urging the Commission to move quickly here and we hope that they take us up on that.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks. And then, just quickly, Jason, on the effective tax rate, the tax repair clearly is a key component that helps, as you said, keep the tax – effective tax rate low at around 20%. How do we estimate that going forward as in – clearly, 2017 you talked about, but going forward, what proportion should we kind of think about is the tax repair piece, so that we can kind of model the more long-term rate?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
We're not providing any component detail on guidance beyond 2017. The tax repair treatment will continue to exist in 2018. That is the driver for why we're so much lower than the statutory rate, and you'll have to make your assumptions around how that changes over time. Let me just reinforce the point that, while our CapEx is relatively constant at $6 billion, the composition of that CapEx changes annually and, therefore, the components that are eligible for tax repairs does change. So, while we would expect our effective tax rate to be below the statutory rate, we're not providing specific guidance beyond 2017.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Fair enough. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. You may proceed.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Hey, guys, good morning.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Most of my questions were answered. Just real quick, is there any updates on Senate Bill 618 and how that can sort of play into your CCA filings?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
We don't have any update for you at this time. I think, as we know, there is a lot of activity happening both in Sacramento and at the PUC around CCA, retail choice, how we want to structure the markets for the future. And I think we're going to continue to advocate for, as we said with the PAM application, that we build the right foundation and that we continue the discussion over time about where the State wants to go.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Is there an opportunity for Senate Bill 618 to transition ahead of your CCA filing?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
I don't think that that would likely happen. I mean, I think at the end of the day, we've got the application in front of the Commission and, under most circumstances, I think it's going to be up to the PUC to really set the right cost allocation mechanisms to ensure that we have a fair transition. And as I said, as I think the legislature said in multiple bills, the idea of customer indifference, so that a customer who remains behind with the utility is indifferent to the choice another customer may make, that's really a foundational concept for any kind of continued choice expansion. And I think that will continue to be the case.
Shahriar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar Capital Group. You may proceed.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Good morning, thank you.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
As it relates to the EV and, even more broadly, the whole retail discussion, what's the possibility that you would enter some kind of competitive business in that space versus all the regulated investment you've talked about?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, this is Geisha. I don't know. I mean, I think that's something that we'd have to really think about. We believe, as an infrastructure company, which is what we are, we're really in a great position to put in the make-ready and the EV charging stations to really accelerate the adoption of EVs. Looking beyond a regulatory play, we have to really take a look at the economics and the financing and the whole nine yards to see whether that really makes sense for us. Today, we think it really is an integral and important part of the regulated business here in California.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. And on a separate subject, the gas transmission midstream in general, if I'm looking at that CapEx number, what component of that would be any kind of growth in transmission? I know you've talked about the storage, obviously have the safety stuff. What portion of that 2017 to 2019 is growth? And then, the follow on to that would be, as you look out 2020 and beyond, are there growth opportunities in the gas transmission area, specifically?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I would really look at very little of it to be growth in terms of gas throughput on the system. Generally speaking, we're seeing flat throughput on the system sort of currently to declining as the State continues to pursue higher and higher renewable portfolio standards. So, I would see the driver behind that gas transmission growth is less around new capacity, but more about replacement and improving the safety of our existing system.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
And could you foresee that changing at all in the next, call it, five years, even 10 years down the road?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
No. I see the pattern of CapEx being driven by safety enhancements being the primary driver. I don't see capacity in the next five years – new capacity in the next five years being a driver of CapEx.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc.:
Okay. Great. I appreciate it.
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp.:
All right. We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Okay. Our last question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. You may proceed.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Hi. How are you doing?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just really – most of my questions have been answered, but there has been some press on Diablo Canyon and I was wondering if you could sort of respond to some of their – some of the more pointed editorials about the cost associated – just gives us an update in terms of how that looks and your thoughts about it?
Steven E. Malnight - PG&E Corp.:
So, this is Steven Malnight, again. I think that we hit an important milestone in the Diablo Canyon retirement proceeding at the Commission. We completed our – about two weeks of testimony. During that time, we talked about and gave details on all the different components of the proposal, including how we're going to replace Diablo with GHG-free resources, the energy efficiency procurement that we're proposing to do along with the community payments – the payments to our employees to make sure we retain the effective and safe workforce, and the costs for – that we've incurred for re-licensing. So, I think we've covered those issues throughout the proceeding. We feel very good about the case we put forward. It's really a comprehensive proposal that looks at all of the various stakeholders that are needed in order to ensure we continue to operate the plant safely through the rest of its life, that we take advantage of the great greenhouse-gas-free energy that it produces until it retires, and then we have an orderly and effective transition to new GHG-free resources. So, we continue to be very supportive of that proposal and we think it will – as we advocate for it through the Commission proceeding, we're optimistic that we can keep that moving forward.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you.
Ann Kim - PG&E Corp.:
All right. Thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. We wish you a safe and happy day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending the PG&E quarter one 2017 earnings conference call. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - PG&E Corp. Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp. Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp. Steven E. Malnight - Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research)
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the Fourth Quarter PG&E Corporation Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of the call with an opportunity for questions-and-answers at the end. At this time, I would like to introduce your hostess, Ms. Janet Loduca of PG&E. Thank you and enjoy your conference. You may proceed, Ms. Loduca.
Janet C. Loduca - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Jackie, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide presentation. The slide presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP measures. We encourage you to review the 2016 annual report on Form 10-K that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there. With that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Janet, and good morning, everyone. I'm glad you could join us. 2016 was a really pivotal year for PG&E. We continue to deliver strong operational and financial results and resolved a number of important regulatory and legal matters. We also announced that next month, Geisha Williams will be taking over as CEO and President of PG&E Corporation and Nick Stavropoulos will be taking over as President and Chief Operating Officer of our utility, Pacific Gas & Electric. Both Geisha and Nick have done an outstanding job over the last several years and have established proven track records for delivering results. So I couldn't be more thrilled about their appointments and look forward to continuing to work with them in my capacity as Chairman. Today, I'm going to spend a few minutes reviewing some of the highlights from 2016 and then I'll turn it over to Geisha for a few remarks and then Jason will walk us through the financials. So let me start with our safety and operational performance. In 2016, we experienced some of the most severe storms we've seen in years. While this was good news for our hydro-generation and for the drought, it impacted our ability to meet our 2016 reliability targets. Despite all of the storms, however, we were still able to deliver the second best electric reliability performance in the company's history. This was in part due to our continued investments in a modern self-healing grid that automatically isolates and minimizes customer outages. And we continue to strengthen our gas system by inspecting and upgrading hundreds of miles of transmission pipeline and replacing over 100 miles of distribution main. We also continue to deliver industry leading results on our gas and electric emergency response times. On the customer side, I'm excited to share that our most recent J.D. Power results for our electric business customers improved to first quartile. Customers continue to notice and appreciate the operational improvements that we've made. So turning to regulatory and legal issues, we made a lot of progress in 2016. In December, we received a final Phase 2 decision in our Gas Transmission and Storage rate case, which gives us certainty on our gas transmission revenues through 2018. In our General Rate Case, we're waiting for a proposed decision on our all-party settlement agreement. If approved, it will provide certainty on our gas and electric distribution and electric generation revenues through 2019. We also reached a settlement agreement in our cost of capital case. The terms include a two-year extension, which takes us through the end of 2019, a true-up for authorized cost of debt beginning in 2018 and reinstatement of the trigger mechanism for 2019. We also agreed to reduce our return on equity from 10.4% to 10.25% beginning in 2018. We're hopeful this settlement will be approved in the coming months. I also want to acknowledge the recent decision in the criminal case. In January, the court sentenced us to a $3 million fine, a five-year probation period, oversight by a third-party monitor, and certain requirements related to advertising and community service. As you'll recall, last year, we announced we would not appeal the five integrity management counts. We've also now decided not to appeal the obstruction of justice count. As we focus on the future, I want to assure all of our stakeholders that the San Bruno incident has fundamentally changed the way we operate this company. We remain absolutely committed to ensuring that we meet the high safety standards that all of our stakeholders and we ourselves demand and expect. As we look to the future of the industry, despite the uncertainty at the Federal level, California will continue to lead the way in transitioning to a clean energy economy. PG&E will be a critical partner in these efforts and is well-positioned to help the state achieve its goals. In 2016, nearly 70% of the energy we delivered was greenhouse gas-free. Nearly 33% of our portfolio was RPS eligible, which puts us about four years ahead of the state's 2020 target. We remain confident that we can meet or exceed our target of 55% renewable resources by 2031. We continue to have more electric vehicles and private rooftop solar installations in our service territory than anywhere else in the country. And with the transportation sector accounting for about 40% of California's greenhouse gas emissions, we expect to play a significant role in helping the state address these emissions by investing in the infrastructure necessary to enable electric vehicle adoption. To that end, last December, the Commission authorized $130 million over the next three years to install the infrastructure necessary to support about 7,500 EV charging stations. In January, we filed a request to spend an additional $250 million, primarily for the infrastructure to support electrification of medium and heavy-duty vehicles like transit buses. The request also includes infrastructure for fast chargers as well some smaller pilots. With the state targeting 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2025, we see the potential to expand these programs in the coming years. In closing, I want to say how much I have truly enjoyed leading this company over the last five-and-a-half years. The good news for me is that, I will continue to work with one of the most talented executive teams in our industry as Executive Chairman. Geisha and Nick are absolutely the right people to lead this company into the future and we've recently restructured the team to better take advantage of the opportunities we have in the coming years. So with that let me turn it over to Geisha, to share a few words.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you so much, Tony, and good morning everyone. First, I have to say we've been so lucky, that we've had Tony at the helm over the last five years or so, and we're still fortunate that he's going to be continuing, engage with us as Executive Chairman. He's done a tremendous job leading us through a challenging period and has really set us up for a successful future. So thank you, Tony, really, really appreciate all you've done. I also want to say, how truly excited I'm to lead this iconic company at such an amazing time in our industry. As we look forward, I'm going to be focused on three areas. First, and always first continuing to build on the strong safety and operational progress we've made in the last several years. Second, providing first-class customer service and maintaining affordable bills, so that we can be our customer's preferred provider of choice. And third, positioning PG&E for success within the changing utility industry, because as Tony said, California will continue to be at the forefront of this change. So it's really an exciting time to be in this industry, particularly here in California. We are confident in our ability to execute on a strong growth plan through continued investments in upgrading and modernizing our system, as we help the state achieve its clean energy goals. I've enjoyed meeting many of you over the last few months, and I look forward to meeting more of you throughout the year. So, with that I'm going to turn things over to Jason to walk us through the financials.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you, Geisha, and hello, everyone. Before I review our financial results, I know that tax reform has been top of mind for many of you. So I thought I would share at a high level, how we're thinking about it. Given that we don't know the scope or timing of reform, there is still a lot of uncertainty around what the final legislation will include. I'll base my comments on the House Republican Blueprint, which includes a 20% corporate tax rate, no interest deductibility and 100% expensing of capital. Overall, we believe we're well positioned to address the impacts of tax reform. Income taxes are part of our regulated cost of service, and we would expect that the net benefit or cost with any of the proposed changes would largely flow to our customers. With respect to the reduction in corporate tax rates, customers would benefit in a couple of ways. First, the lower tax rate creates excess deferred taxes that would be refunded to our customers over time. As indicated on slide 5, the utility has about a $10.5 billion net deferred tax liability. This balance would be reduced by about one-third if the corporate tax rate is lowered to 20%. Second, customer rates would be reduced to reflect the net impact of the lower tax rate going forward. At the holding company, our net deferred tax assets are about $300 million. A reduction in the federal tax rate to 20% would reduce the value of these assets by about 40%. While this amount would not be recoverable from customers, it also would not increase equity needs, as these balances are not factored into the utility's equity ratio. Finally, the lower tax rate will be a net positive from a rate base perspective, as it will result in slower future growth of deferred taxes. The next component I'll cover is the additional tax expense created from the elimination of the interest deduction which would be passed to customers through the cost of capital. We don't expect a material shareholder impact from the loss of the interest expense deduction given that we don't have significant outstanding debt at the holding company. Turning to the component that would allow for full expensing of capital, we expect the impact to be minimal in the near-term given our net operating loss. Longer-term, we'd expect this to moderate our rate base growth. We're not quantifying the potential rate base impact at this point as we're still very early in the process and there are a lot of variables that could impact certain tax deductions and our NOL. Finally, just a few words on cash flows. On a net basis, we do not expect these proposed tax reforms to have a significant near-term impact on cash flows. On the tax payments side, this is because of our NOL. On the revenue side this is because we're currently expensing about $1 billion in capital via repairs and flowing that benefit back to customers. The revenue reduction from the lower federal tax rate would be mitigated by the reduced flow through benefit. So the bottom line is, we're in a good position with respect to various tax reform proposals. We believe that the net impact of these reforms will create bill capacity that may provide opportunities to increase our capital spend related to incremental infrastructure and grid modernization benefits, which we will balance with our goal of maintaining affordable service for our customers. So let me shift to our fourth quarter and year-end results, which are on slide 6. Earnings from operations came in at $1.33 for the quarter and $3.76 for the year. GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. Pipeline related expenses were $33 million pre-tax for the quarter and $113 million pre-tax for the year. We incurred legal and regulatory related expenses of $18 million pre-tax for the quarter and $72 million pre-tax for the year. These last two items are consistent with the guidance we previously provided. Fines and penalties came in at $170 million pre-tax for the quarter and $498 million pre-tax for the year. This is primarily related to the San Bruno penalty decision and disallowances imposed for the ex parte communications in Phase 2 of the Gas Transmission and Storage Rate Case decision. Butte fire related costs, net of insurance were $46 million pre-tax for the quarter and $232 million pre-tax for the year. As you'll recall, in the first quarter of last year we took a charge for $350 million pre-tax, which represented the low end of the range for third-party property damages. It did not include any costs for fire suppression, personal injury or other damages that PG&E could be liable for if we were found to be negligent. While our position continues to be that we were not negligent, this question would ultimately be decided by a jury if we were to go to trial. This quarter, we've increased the low end of the range to $750 million pre-tax, which takes into account the risk of all known claims including negligence. We continue to be unable to estimate the high end of the range at this time. We also incurred legal costs related to the fire of $27 million pre-tax. We've increased the insurance receivable to $625 million, which represents the low end of the range for insurance recoveries. As we noted last year, we expect to seek full recovery for all insured losses, so this amount should not be viewed as a ceiling on recovery. Finally, as a reminder, last year we took charges totaling about $80 million for cleanup and repair costs that are not recoverable. Moving to the next item, we reported $29 million pre-tax for the quarter and $219 million pre-tax for the year related to the capital disallowances ordered in the Phase 1 Gas Transmission Rate Case decision. As you'll recall, the Phase 1 decision included a number of cost gaps and one-way balancing accounts, and we took a charge in the second quarter to reflect our best estimate of capital program costs that would exceed authorized amounts over the rate case period. The increase this quarter reflects our updated estimate of these costs based on more detailed project planning. Lastly, we booked revenue of $325 million pre-tax for both the quarter and year, which reflects recognition of gas transmission revenues in excess of our 2016 cost of service. We'd originally estimated $350 million based on high-level revenue assumptions. The actual out of period revenues were slightly lower. On slide 7, you'll see our quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of $0.50 in Q4 of last year to $1.33 in Q4 of this year. With the final Phase 2 Gas Transmission decision, we were able to record revenues that were $0.48 higher compared to the same quarter last year. As a reminder, we'll be recovering the Gas Transmission under collection over 36 months and can record only 29 months of that revenue in 2016. The remaining seven months of the under collection will be recorded in the first quarter of 2017. Timing of taxes was $0.20 positive for the quarter and results in a net zero impact for the year. We had $0.06 favorable as a result of the Diablo Canyon refueling outage in 2015 that we didn't have in the same period in 2016. Rate base earnings increased $0.05 for the quarter. We had $0.01 negative for the increase in outstanding shares and $0.05 favorable for a number of miscellaneous items. Miscellaneous includes the full severance charge for the organizational changes we announced in January. This was partially offset by lower contract costs as a result of efficiency measures in the fourth quarter and lower incentive compensation in 2016, compared to 2015. Transitioning now to slide 8, we are reaffirming 2017 earnings from operations guidance of $3.55 to $3.75 per share. Our underlying assumptions are on page 9. While our overall capital expenditures in 2017 are consistent with what we shared last quarter, we've had some movement between planned rate cases. Capacity-related project delays have reduced our Electric Transmission spend. These projects weren't slated to come online for several years, so you'll notice that our rate base is unchanged. These reductions were offset by incremental plan spend, primarily in our gas distribution and transmission businesses. It remains our objective to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise as a whole. Moving to slide 10, we have two updates to our 2017 items impacting comparability. First, fines and penalties now reflect $15 million for the portion of the ex parte penalty imposed in the Gas Transmission Phase 2 decision that we will recognize in the first quarter of 2017. This item does not include an estimate for potential future fines that may result from other proceedings including the ongoing Ex Parte Order Instituting Investigation. Second, the Gas Transmission revenue timing impact has been reduced by $10 million for a total of $150 million. This will also be recorded in the first quarter. As I mentioned, actual out of period revenues were slightly lower than what we had forecasted. On slide 11, we're reaffirming our 2017 equity needs with a range of $400 million to $600 million. In 2018 and 2019, we still expect our equity needs to be met largely through internal programs, which historically have contributed approximately $350 million annually to our equity needs. Finally, on slides 12 and 13, we're affirming our CapEx and rate base guidance through 2019. While we're still targeting 6.5% to 7% rate base growth through 2019, there are a couple of changes to the underlying assumptions on slide 13. The base case now incorporates the final electric vehicle infrastructure decision that we received last December. It does not yet include our recent filing to support medium and heavy-duty vehicle electrification. While we're not providing longer term EPS guidance, it remains our objective to earn our CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise in 2018 and 2019. Assuming the Commission approves the cost of capital settlement, our authorized return on equity will be 10.25% in 2018. I'll close by saying it's been a strong year for the company. As Geisha said, our focus on upgrading and modernizing our system to support the state's clean energy goals provides a strong growth trajectory in the future. Assuming the cost of capital settlement is approved, we'll have certainty on our cost of capital structure and return on equity through 2019, and we continue to target 6.5% to 7% rate base growth and a 60% dividend payout ratio by 2019. So with that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning, everyone. Well done. I wanted to follow up on the...
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
...cost cutting announcement of late. I wanted to just understand a little bit on how that's gets factored into not just 2017 guidance but beyond, and your ability to kind of earn at or above your authorized or your new authorized ROE sort of during the pendency of what should be new rates in effect?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Julien, this is Geisha. How are you? So...
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Good.
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
...you should think of those first $300 million cost efficiency measure that we've put in place as being part of our plan to actually meet our guidance in 2017. So I wouldn't really expect there to be additional sort of upside from that. What you should also expect though is that like any other great company out there, we're going to be really focused on managing our costs. We're going to be looking at how to improve our processes and you should think of this $300 million first initiative as just that, a first step in what's going to be a long term affordability journey. We're really proud of the fact that our customer bills are below national average and we want to work really hard to make sure that that continues to be the case, because we have a strong capital plan and that could put upward pressure on customer rates. So we're doing everything in our power to keep our bills affordable and to drive efficiencies as we move on.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And then a quick second question. I'd just be curious, Geisha, obviously you've had a few months here. In terms of hard asset acquisitions outside of the kind of core rate base utility, what's your latest thinking on that prospect? And maybe more importantly the parameters to the extent to which you are looking at something that you would evaluate looking outside of rate base?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
I think as you look at where we are today, we've put a lot of things behind us. We have a very strong balance sheet. Our focus is really on executing on what we think is a strong growth plan. We've got a lot of work to do and with $6 billion or so in capital additions every year, we think that getting that done, getting that done efficiently is really going to serve us well. Notwithstanding, though to answer your question, we're building the muscle, we're building the discipline internally so that should something come up that frankly is accretive, that makes sense, that makes sense for our shareholders, that's consistent with our core operations, et cetera, that we'd be ready to be able to act. But I wouldn't expect us to sort of come out of the gate, looking for M&A activity. We don't feel like we need to do. We really have a strong growth profile and our focus is really going to be about executing and doing a great job for our customers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Excellent. Well said. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Smith. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. I just wanted to see if you wouldn't mind kind of framing some of the things on slide 13 that maybe aren't in your current rate base guidance. For example, can you talk a little bit about the first two items, kind of directionally where you see FERC Electric Transmission spend needing to go over the next couple of years, and getting out to the 2019, 2020 timeframe were GT&S spend. I mean I know you're not going to put hard numbers on this, but I'm just trying to think about it, is it flat, up or down?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Good morning, Michael. This is Jason. As it relates to the electric transmission business, there's a couple of competing pressures on that business. One, load is moderating in the state. And so that would sort of reduce the need for incremental capacity projects. That being said, we are increasing our renewable portfolio standard, so there will be more large scale utility renewable projects coming online and need to be connected to the grid. And so we think currently today, our conservative assumption around holding 2018 and 2019 spend flat to what we've received in the 2017 rate case and what we've requested in the 2017 rate case appears reasonable. In the Gas Transmission and Storage business, we've really stepped up our spending quite a bit in the 2015 rate case that we just received. And so, when I look at 2019, there's still a lot of work that needs to be done on the system. The drivers that we see supporting that CapEx spend are very much longer term in nature. But I will say that that 2015 rate case was the first time that we really stepped up our revenues post San Bruno. So I think that increase was a bit of an anomaly and I wouldn't factor that in going forward. I do think the real opportunity is in helping the state facilitate its longer term carbon goals, particularly around electrification. And so, as Tony mentioned, we recently filed an initial application for medium and heavy-duty vehicles, but really we think that helping support further electrification in the state provides upside to these plans longer term.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And just thinking about the Butte fire, can you talk – I'm going make sure I've got the numbers right here about how much cash you've spent since this occurred? Meaning what's the net total of the cash that's kind of gone out the door for this? And I'm just trying to compare that to the insurance receivable. And so, I'm not looking just for kind of the 2016 amount and the last quarter amount, just kind of the total.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Sorry, Mike. I'm just kind of digging that number out. There is a couple of different components here, so we took about an $80 million charge for cleanup and repair costs. Obviously that was cash that was previously spent. In terms of sort of claims that we've encountered today, it's about $60 million that we've paid out. And we brought in insurance roughly of about $50 million.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
So you really have to look at those individual components.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
But you mentioned the insurance receivable of $625 million, was that for other items unrelated to this or is that predominantly related to the Butte wildfire?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah, so the $625 million, I would look at it as offsetting the claims associated with the Butte wildfire plus legal costs.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
So we've incurred I think roughly $27 million in legal costs to-date, and we have now assumed that the low end of the range for the Butte fire will be $750 million. The combination of those two, we're going to seek recovery from insurers for those two costs. We took a conservative assumption of about an 80% recovery, which was the $625 million that we recognized as an insurance receivable this quarter.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
That's for the full year.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you, Jason. Much appreciated guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Lapides. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah, hi. Just a couple of quick questions, first on the cost of capital settlement. Are you getting any indications, if anyone will be opposing the settlement?
Steven E. Malnight - Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Hi. This is Steve Malnight from the Regulatory team. The settlement was actually conducted with most of the active parities in that proceeding. So at this point in time, we expect that we've addressed most of the parties. We don't think we've actually lapsed the full time for others to potentially raise their hand, but we feel pretty good about the coalition we've put together there.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then also there was a, I think at the last meeting there was I think some stories about Commission meeting and some press stories about just people complaining about their bills. I assume that's probably just the GT&S case having been delayed and over time, kind of hitting bills. Is that what it would be and is there anything that you're doing to kind of address concerns there?
Steven E. Malnight - Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Yeah, just to give a little clarity to that, we have definitely seen an uptick in concerns around winter bills, particularly for gas usage, for some of our customers. Just to give a little context for that, in August of last year, we actually implemented an increase in the Gas Transmission rates to incorporate the Phase 1 decision from GT&S. That accounted for about a 19% increase for the average residential customer. As we've talked about, that was a substantial step-up in spending in that case and it was delayed pretty substantially from the initial time period when the rates would go into effect. To help to kind of moderate that, in January, we actually implemented a reduction in rates of about 8%, which is the reflection of the Phase 2 decision where they then implemented, the San Bruno penalty and the ex parte fine in that proceeding. So we really think that will help to moderate it. Obviously, we've had a stronger winter here in California this year than prior years, which has also led to increased usage. It's something we pay a lot of attention to. We're very focused on it. We are really committed to, as Geisha said, make sure we keep our bills affordable for our customers. So we work with them when there are concerns to help them understand how they can reduce their usage through efficiency programs and other things and help save, so something we pay a lot of attention to.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. So, quickly on the electrification, just wanted to understand a little bit more in terms of context. I know the near-term programs you've talked about on transportation, electrification, longer-term, how do you see growth coming from that and how do you offset that against either energy efficiency or behind-the-meter storage that may shave peaks, so, some context would be helpful?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. So from a load standpoint, in terms of kind of the puts and takes there, in our service territory, an electric vehicle sort of represents an average household of consumption, about half an average household of consumption. So you can think of for every two electric vehicles we add to the system, essentially we're offsetting the decline that we see from distributed generation. So that's sort of I think an easy rule of thumb to think about load from that standpoint. And I think from a growth standpoint financially, the state has a goal of having 1.5 million electric vehicles on the road in California by 2025. That would equate to about 600,000 vehicles in our service territory. We think and the state thinks that we need distributed charging stations for every four vehicles that are on the road. So that would be a need for approximately 150,000 charging stations in our service territory. We think we're best positioned to facilitate that build-out and provide that service to our customers in our service territory. And so, just initial application, which we just recently had approved, that was only for 7,500 charging stations. So we see the opportunity for fairly significant growth over the next several years to help enable the state to meet its overall policy goals.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. That's really helpful context. Thanks. And then secondly on CCAs, I know this is a topic that keeps coming up. I think Chairman (sic) [President] Picker was talking about 40% targets or potentially 40% that could be reached in terms of loads served through CCAs. How do you see that transition of CCAs and is there any risk of stranded assets sometime in the future?
Geisha J. Williams - PG&E Corp.:
Hi. This is Geisha. So, I think, when I saw the same number, the 40% from President Picker, I think he was thinking about it in a state-wide context. Our service area is a little bit different. Our service area is made up of many small municipalities and counties. So, in our case, we think that that transition to higher levels of CCA adoption are going to take a little bit longer. But we think the number is generally right. It's just going to happen over a longer period of time. What we're doing in terms of preparing for that, of course, is the first and most important is we have a really flexible energy supply portfolio. So, for example, about 55% of the energy that we deliver to our customers is actually procured from third parties. And those contracts tend to be a combination of both long-term and spot market purchases. So, of the 55% that we have now under contract, nearly 40% represents megawatt hours that we do not have a contractual obligation to take in 2021. And the reason I bring that up is as CCA adoption grows, we're really executing on our very flexible energy portfolio. So, we believe, we've got the triggers that we need to be able to meet the load over time. And I hope that answers your question?
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Yeah. That's really helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning. How are you?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
Hey, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
There was a transmission complaint case that was filed by the California PUC and others, regarding Order 890 on the transmission planning process. Just wondering if you could maybe address your thoughts about that complaint and this apparent desire to have input on transmission planning to a greater degree on the part of the California parties?
Steven E. Malnight - Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Yeah, hi. This is Steve Malnight, again. Let me give a little context for that. So, in early February the CPUC and other parties, as you said, they filed a complaint at FERC seeking really to establish a process for stakeholders to be more involved in the portion of our transmission planning spend, that's not subject to the ISO review here in California. So, just to give – to help clarify that. So, the ISO currently reviews our planned work for capacity and reliability projects, but they don't review other work such as our normal maintenance activities and things like that. So this is a complaint that the parties are filing. We're going to replying to that here shortly in a few weeks, and we'll see how that proceeds. I think, as we said, we had gone through several TO cases over the last several years, and continued to put them forward under the current framework and settle those cases. So we'll work our way through this issue as well.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And I don't want you to necessarily preempt your filing. I just was wondering if you had a general sort of response to sort of the questions that were raised and it seems a little bit more than what the TO cases were in the past and that's all I was trying to get at. Again, I don't mean to ask you to tell us what you're going to file in response, but if you could follow what I'm saying, just any sense as to what's necessarily driving this other than of course the PJM complaint that we saw in the summer or anything else?
Steven E. Malnight - Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Well, I guess I would say this. I mean, the cost components that are at issue here in this complaint, these are cost components that we have sought recovery for through the TO case and settled for multiple years. So I think I'm kind of going to leave it at that. I think we'll just see how this plays out at FERC as we move forward.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then Tony, is this your last earnings call?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
It's the last one where I'll be speaking, I'll be listening in.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Well, congratulations and good luck on the future. Thanks.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Patterson. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you. I was wondering real quick, the ROE settlement, how would that, if at all, impact the transmission earnings and allowed ROE?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
From an earnings standpoint, it's our objective to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity on a whole for the enterprise The reason why we say that it's because the FERC rate cases have historically been settled. And as part of the settlement, it's essentially a black box. So we don't specify directly the return on equity in those rate cases. So I think it's a fair assumption from a modeling standpoint just to apply the CPUC authorized return on equity across all of our rate base. We separately, we'll look at when we file the next TO rate case, kind of the support for the cost of capital at that time, particularly the return on equity, and we'll have to see what the factors are at that point.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. And then, if you're able to say here, in terms of that black box, how much do those negotiations and FERC's view depend on kind of a state level ROE plus adder type of framework there?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
In the last filing we filed for 10.4 as the base with a 50 basis point adder. And we continue to believe that 50 basis point adder is appropriate. We'll continue to file for that. That obviously return on equity is a component that is negotiated as part of the overall settlement. But again, we don't individually negotiate final settlement terms. It's just an overall black box settlement.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. Got it. And then a broader question, given work that you guys did, the success and you had resolving things in 2016, what's the next big regulatory hurdle for you guys? Does it go all the way out to the next GRC or is there something here that presents some material risk on the regulatory side in the next two years or so? Assuming all the settlements go through, right, and that's obviously still a risk. But assuming those go through, what's the next big risk?
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
Assuming that all – and we do assume that all the settlements will go through – our next big rate case filing will actually be the Gas Transmission Storage Rate Case for 2019. And we typically file most of our rate cases sort of late summer, kind of early fall. So from a rate case standpoint that's the next big one on the horizon. I will say we need to close out the OII associated with our ex parte violations. And so from a standpoint of a risk that that is one that we need to resolve here and are actively in settlement negotiations to resolve that here hopefully shortly.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Okay. So, it sounds kind of like 2018 is, I hate to say it, I will use it in my words not yours, but it's kind of in the books, if you don't have any pending rate cases, right and other regulatory activities, if all of that is resolved, the settlements resolved in 2017 then it's really not a whole lot, right, that would jeopardize 2018. So...
Jason P. Wells - PG&E Corp.:
I won't say that we have, we do file with the FERC annually, but I do believe we have good clarity on our plan, given the fact that we have either settled rate cases or all-party settlement supporting the majority of our spend over the planning horizon, as well as the settlement that we discussed with the cost of capital proceeding. So, we think we have really strong line of sight to the rate base growth that we've articulated today, and we have a strong path the dividend payout ratio of 60% by 2019.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - PG&E Corp.:
So this is Tony. This is kind of the theme that we've been talking about over the last couple of months and why I said, 2016 was really a pivotal year. We now are able to focus on the future far more intensely than we have been in the past, where we were just dealing with the various cases. Now, as Jason said, we still have one OII, we've got our Diablo Canyon settlement case. They are still out there, that has to be resolved. But yeah, when you're talking about a revenue stream coming forward, we've got the two big cases and hopefully we'll get the rate case settlement approved. We now are focusing on the changes that are going on in the industry and the opportunities that we have to invest in the clean energy future in California, which is clearly part of this Governor's objective and the legislators objectives, and the Commission's objectives. And that's why I think, we're really well set up to align with those desires.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
No, that's great, appreciate it.
Janet C. Loduca - PG&E Corp.:
Okay. This is Janet. I just want to thank everyone for participating today and we'll be talking to you in the future. Thanks.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending the fourth quarter PG&E Corporation Earnings Conference Call. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Janet Loduca - Vice President, Investor Relations Tony Earley - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jason Wells - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Geisha Williams - President, Electric
Analysts:
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Julien Smith - UBS Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank. Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Chris Turnure - J.P. Morgan Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse Anthony Crowdell - Jefferies Praful Mehta - Citigroup Kevin Fallon - Citadel Travis Miller - Morningstar
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. At this time I will like to introduce your hostess, Ms Janet Loduca. You may proceed.
Janet Loduca:
Thank you, [Monique], and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlooks for future financial results which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company’s actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s third quarter earnings and business update presentations. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2015 annual report. With that, I’ll hand it over to Tony.
Tony Earley:
Well, thank you, Janet. And thanks all of you for joining us. We're going to do something little different on today's call. We've resolved number of regulatory and legal issues over the last several months. With the gas transmission and storage rate case decision, the all party general rate case settlement and the resolution of the most of the San Bruno related proceedings we want to step back and review where we are and where we're heading. We plan to spend about half a time on today call with our prepared remarks. I'll start with the quick overview of our third quarter results and then share our vision for where the company is headed. We're also initiating 2017 earnings guidance today. So our presentation will take a little longer than usual, but we still expect to have about 30 minutes for questions at the end. So with that, let me turn it over to Jason to cover the third quarter results and then I'll talk more about or longer term vision.
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Tony, and good morning everyone. I'm going to just start with the third quarter earnings presentation that we issued this morning and then we'll move to the business update presentation. Slide three shows our results for the third quarter. Earnings from operations came at $0.94. I know this is lower than many of you expected, but we are reaffirming our guidance from earnings from operations for the full year. As I'll discuss more in a minute, the Q3 results are largely driven by timing items. Our third quarter GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability were also shown on slide three. Pipeline related expenses were $31 million pretax this quarter. The charge for legal and regulatory related expenses was $23 of pretax, and fines and penalties were $67 million pretax are primarily related to the San Bruno penalty decision. We're showing $60 million pretax for the Butte fire-related, net of insurance which are largely for legal costs associated with the butte fire. We did not adjust our insurance receivable this third quarter. However, we do intent to seek recovery of all insured losses from our insurance carriers. And as a reminder, the current receivable should not be viewed as a ceiling on insurance recoveries. Moving to slide four, you'll see our quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of $0.84 in Q3 of last year to $0.94 in Q3 of this year. As a result of the Phase 1 gas transmission storage rate case decision we increased our rates in August to begin recovering the higher approved revenues. This resulted in a $0.11 of higher revenues compared to Q3 of last year. We also continue to see $0.05 positive for growth and rate concerns, and regulatory and legal matters total$0.05 positive for the quarter. This item include some incentive revenue awards Timing of taxes was $0.04 negative for the quarter and as a reminder this is purely a timing item that will net to zero by year end. As a result you can expect to see a $0.20 pickup in the fourth quarter of fully offset the amount recognized through Q3. We also had $0.03 negative for an increased in outstanding shares and $0.04 negative for number of miscellaneous items. Turning to slide five. We are reaffirming our guidance from earnings from operations of $3.65 to $3.85 per share. GAAP guidance is shown here as well. We are also reaffirming our expectation of roughly 800 million in equity issuance this year. Slide six shows our updated guidance assumptions. We assume capital expenditures of roughly $5.7 billion which is slightly higher than our second quarter projection of 5.6 billion. We've increase the gas distribution number to reflect our best estimate of spend through the end of the year. Our assumption for weighted average rate base is $32.4 billion consistent with last quarter. At in the bottom right we've updated the other factors effecting earnings from operations to reflect the proposed Phase 2 decision we received earlier this week in the gas transmission rate case. Our guidance assumes that the proposed decision is approved this year without any material modifications. If we do not receive a final Phase 2 decision before the end of the year our earnings will be reduced by about $0.25. And we continue to target earning, our 10.4% CPUC authorized return on equity across the enterprise plus the net impact of the other earnings factors listed here. Moving to slide seven, we've updated the ranges for several of the 2016 items impacting comparability. The range for pipeline related expenses is the same as last quarter. For legal and regulatory related expenses we've updated this slide to reflect our expectation that will come in at about $75 million which is the high end of the previous range. Fines and penalties increased by $50 million pretax reflecting a number of updates which I'll cover in a minute. We've also updated the butte fire related costs reflect a charge of $60 million pretax in Q3 largely driven by legal costs. We remained unable to estimate the high end of the range at this time. The remaining items are unchanged from last quarter. The table at the bottom of the page is our updates to fines and penalties. First the charge for disallowed capital has increased by $6 million. We have now fully accrued for all of these safety related capital we've expect to be disallowed in the Phase 2 gas transmission decision. Second, we incurred $4 million charge for the ex parte penalty associated with the higher gas transmission revenues we collected in August and September. Assuming the proposed Phase 2 decision has approved this year we will record an additional 54 million in Q4 to reflect the full 2016 impact of the ex parte penalty. Third, we increase the gas distribution record keeping fine by 2 million to reflect the modified presiding officer's decision. The total is now $26 million. And finally, we've included a $3 million charges as a result of federal criminal verdict. So that's concludes Q3 earnings update. We continue to have confidence and our ability to achieve our guidance this year assuming the proposed Phase 2 decision in the gas transmission rate case is approved in December. With a resolution of a number of significant issues over the last several months we have much greater clarity in our future operational and financial performance which we've laid out in the business update. So with that, let me turn it back over to Tony.
Tony Earley:
Thanks, Jason. Let me turn to the business update presentation that we issued earlier this morning. I'd encourage all of you to have the presentation in front of you as I share my comments because I think it will be a little easier to follow on. As you can see on slide three, we're going to cover three areas today. First, I'm going to review the progress we've made over the last six years because we have come a long way. We know we still have more work to do but I am really proud of what the team has accomplished and I want to share some of those results with you. Second, I'm going to talk about some of the things that really provide PG&A with a strategic advantage, and third I'm going to talk about what's driving growth going forward. As part of that Jason is going to review the 2017 earnings guidance as well as our updated CapEx at rate base guidance through 2019. Between our 6.5% to 7% rate base growth and our above average dividend per share growth we expect to deliver strong returns over the next several years. So let me start with the progress that we made. Slide five provides the high level overview of the company. As you can see over 90% of our revenues are set by the California Public Utilities Commission with the remainder set by FERC and nearly half of our revenues are pass through for things like energy procurement costs and public purpose programs. Turning to slides six, one of things I'm most proud of is how we've embedded safety into our core governance structures. Safety is really the foundation of everything that we do. When I join the company in 2011 we began a back to basic structure with safety at the forefront. Let me give you some examples of that. At the leadership level we've supplemented our team with new board members and executives who bring significant utility experience. At the Boards of Directors we brought on a number of former utility CEOs like Anne Shen Smith from Southern Cal Gas. Rich Kelly from Xcel Energy and Fred Fowler from Spectra Energy, and we brought in a whole new leadership team on the gas side of the business starting with Nick Stavropoulos who brings more than 35 years of experience in the gas industry. We've included bios for some of our leadership team in the appendix. In 2012 we became the first utility in the industry to publish a dashboard to track how we're performing on key public safety metrics such as emergency response times and reduction of gas dig-ins and electric wire downs. And that focus is driven significant operational improvements as I'll discuss in just a minute. Several years ago we also restructured our short term variable compensation plan so that 50% is now tied to our performance on public and employee safety. This incentive program applies to all of our management employees as well as some of our union representative employees. And finally we've done a lot of work on our safety culture. This is probably the most critical piece because it's our culture that ultimately drives the performance that we're looking for. Part of our strategy has been to install continuous improvement mindset by encouraging employees to identify gaps and opportunities and then close them to benchmarking and process improvement. We also wanted to make sure that every employee felt comfortable raising concerns no matters how big or small. So we made a number of changes to encourage all employees to speak up when something doesn't seem right. For example, we work with our unions to develop a non-punitive self-reporting policy. We've also adapted the nuclear industry's corrective action program across the company to make it easy for employees to report things that need to be fixed. In fact employees can now report corrective action items through a simple app on their smart devices. And we've created a number of awards to publicly recognized employees when they do speak up so that we're encouraging and reinforcing that behavior. All of these efforts have really paid off. As you can see on slide seven, we've achieve industry leading performance on a number of gas safety metrics. We've reduced our emergency response time and gas dig-ins by about 40%. And we've virtually eliminated our leak backlog by completely redesigning our approach to finding and repairing leaks, including deploying sophisticated new technologies that are thousand times more sensitive than traditional detection equipment. We've replaced to upgrade 100s of miles of distribution and transmission pipeline. We're the first utility in the country to be certify under PAS 55, ISO 55001, and RC 14001 for asset management programs. And we're the first company in the U.S. to meet the rigor of the American petroleum institute 1173 standard for pipeline safety and safety culture. So I couldn't be more proud of how the team has turned the gas business around. We've also made tremendous improvements on the electric side of the business. As you can see on slide eight, our emergency response performance is now in the first quartile and as a result of our investments in smart meters, automatic switches and circuit upgrades we've delivered seven straight years of record breaking electric reliability. Our customers are experiencing fewer and shorter outages than ever before. All of these improvements are really showing up in our customer satisfactions scores, while we still have more work to do, our JD Power results across all customer classes have increased steadily since 2012 as you can see on slide nine. The improvement we made in safety and reliability over the last six years have put us in a position to deliver strong financial results going forward. Earlier this year we announced our first dividend increase in six years and we've committed to achieving roughly payout ratio by 2019. Combined with our expected rate base growth we're confident we can deliver a strong overall return for our shareholders. Turning to section, I want to highlight a few areas that provide PG&A with the strategic advantage particular as our industry undergoes significant change. One of the trends we've seen over the last decade is the increasing focus on climate change and greenhouse gas reduction and that trend is only going to intensify in coming years. At PG&E we've been committed to sustainability for decades and we're one of the greenest utilities in the country. As you can see on slide 13 nearly 60% of our electric deliveries come from carbon free and renewable resources, that's almost [Indiscernible] average, and that's important to our customers who pride themselves on environmental stewardship. PG&E's customers are leading the way for the country with 25% of all rooftop solar installations and 20% of all electric vehicles. We've also expanded our engagement efforts establishing Advisory Council last year to help inform our sustainability strategy and priorities. Discounts was made up of a diverse group of leaders from environmental organization like Ceres and the National Resource and Defense Council, as well as policy experts academia and businesses, and we consistently been recognized as one of the leading companies by a number of third party sustainability assessments. We've also had the privilege of operating in a state that has a number constructive regulatory mechanism which is shown on slide 14. In California revenues have been decoupled from sales for decades to a help encourage energy efficiencies, so PG&E's revenues are not impacted by changes and load. The CPUC has also authorized a number of balancing accounts that allows us to track and recover costs that are more unpredictable such as a cost to respond earthquakes and other large scale emergency. Our rate cases are based on forward looking test years, and the CPUC is now reviewing all requests through the lens of risk mitigation. We think this is that right approach and aligns well with our strategic planning process which starts with a detailed risk assessment of all of our assets. In fact earlier this year the CPUC safety and enforcement division found PG&E's risk management process to be industry leading. California also has a separate cost of capital proceeding that establishes the authorize capital structure and return on equity over three-year period for all of the IOUs. Our current 10.4% return on equity is fixed through 2017. Turning to slide 15. California continues to be a leader on energy policy. The state is now targeting to reduced greenhouse gas emissions to at least 40% below [1990] levels by 2030. To get there California will be increasing renewables to 50% doubling energy efficiency and electrifying the transportation sector. And PG&E will continue to be a critical partner in helping the state to achieve its energy policy goals. So that brings me to our last differentiator. California's policy goals around safety and environmental leadership will continue to provide opportunities for sustained infrastructure investment. To support safety and reliability PG&E is investing in multiyear programs to enhance our gas, electric and generation assets, and I'll provide some specific examples in just a minute. To enable California's clean energy economy PG&E will continue to modernize the grid to ensure our systems – ensure that our systems can effectively integrate both the increased renewables and distribute energy resources. Longer term California is working on some of the largest rail and water infrastructure projects in the country which we expect will require hundreds of millions in PG&E investments over the next 15 years. With our proven track record of being able to finance and deliver on these types of large scale projects we are well-positioned to help the state achieve all of its goals at a reasonable cost. This brings me to our last section which focuses on our future growth profile. As you can see on slide 18, we have three focus areas; continuing to enhance safety and reliability, enabling California's clean energy economy, and ensuring that our customer's rates will continue to be affordable particularly in light of future load projections. Slide 19 shows a few examples to some of the longer term programs will be executing to enhance safety and reliability. On the gas side of the business, we've been steadily increasing the percentage of our gas transmission pipeline that is capable of inline inspection and we're targeting to reach about 65% by 2026. In fact we partnered with a number of companies to create the next generation of inline inspection tools that can capture even more detailed information about the integrity of the pipeline without any interruption to gas service. We also continue to increase the number of miles of gas distribution pipeline we're replacing each year. On the electric side by 2019 we're targeting to install automated switch on about 45% of our urban distribution lines and upgrade about 85% of our urban substations. These investments will continue to enhance electric reliability by increasing our ability to automatically reroute power during outages. California's clean energy policies will also drive continued investment. As you can see on slide 20, we expect to spend about $1 billion through 2020 on grid modernization projects. As I mentioned earlier our customers are already adaptors of technology and we already have the most solar rooftop installations and electric vehicles in the country. The demands on distribution grid are greater than ever before and we need to continue to invest in technologies and systems that seamlessly integrate distributed energy resources and accommodate two-way power flow. We also expect to play a critical role and helping to electrify the transportation sector by building out the necessary charging infrastructure. And we see this trend continuing well into the next decade as the states moves towards its longer term goals of increased renewables, energy efficiency, energy storage and electric vehicles. With all of this investment in our future, we are keenly focused on affordability. As you can see on slide 21, we are in good shape today. Our bills are 30% lower than the national average. And over the last couple of decades, our electric rates have grown in line with the rate of inflation. But we know it will be challenging to continue this trend. Over the next 10 to 15 years, we expect our bundled electric load to decline due to a combination of increased energy efficiency and demand response, and communities electing to procure their own generation through community choice aggregation. In fact this was a major driver behind our decision not to seek to extend the Diablo Canyon Power Plant license beyond the current expiration dates of 2024 and 2025. As you can see on slide 22, we have a number of strategies to manage this change. Our current electric portfolio gives us a lot of flexibility. We purchased over half of our energy from third-parties and about 30% of the megawatt hours under contract are expiring over the next five years. As I mentioned earlier, our revenues have been decoupled from sales for decades and we have mechanisms in place to allocate appropriate costs to our departing customers. So, while declining load doesn't impact our earnings, it does ship costs among our customers under the current rate structures. That’s why our strategy also includes modernizing our rate structures. As the use of our grid changes, the way our rates are designed needs to be changed as well. Both the State Legislature and the Public Utilities Commission have recognized the need for reform and we’ve made some progress over the last year through flattening the residential tiers and moving new net energy metering customers to time of use rates. We’ve also shifted the peak period for our time of use rates from mid-day to the evening hours in recognition of the significant amount of solar generation now available during the day but more work needs to be done. In September, the CPUC issued a draft whitepaper on its Distributed Energy Resources Action Plan, which outlined its vision for effectively integrating Distributed Energy Resources into the system. Part of that vision is to develop rates structure for the new grid uses, while ensuring that rates remain affordable for non-DER customers. We look forward to working with the commission over the next several years to update our rate structures, to better reflect the current and future uses of the grid. At the same time, we are working to drive sustainable efficiencies in our own cost structure. To our benchmarking and continuous improvement efforts, we have successfully reduced costs in a number of areas over the last few years. Going forward, we will continue to capture savings through process improvement, technology investment and procurement efficiencies while maintaining a strong focus on safety and reliability. So, as I think you can see, we are at the forefront of a lot of exciting industry changes. California’s vision of a decarbonized economy creates a lot of investment opportunities. As we just discussed, we are well-positioned to manage changes to our load profile as customer choice increases. So before I turn it back over to Jason to talk about our updated guidance, I want to say again how proud I’m of the progress that this team has made over the last six years. We’ve had a relentless focus on safety and reliability and you can really see the results of that in our operational metrics. I’m excited about our future and confident in our ability to deliver strong operational and financial results going forward. So with that, let me turn it back over to Jason.
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Tony. I’m going to finish up today’s presentation by reviewing our 2017 earnings guidance and updated CapEx and rate base guidance through 2019. Turning to slide 25, our 2017 guidance on an earnings from operations basis is $3.55 to $3.75 per share. We are also providing ranges for the items impacting comparability, which I will come back to in a minute after we review the guidance assumptions on slide 26. Starting the upper left corner, you will see we are assuming capital expenditures of roughly $6 billion. We’ve included the breakdown by rate case here. In the upper right corner, our estimate weighted average rate base is about $34.3 billion for the year. Both the CapEx and rate base assumptions are within the ranges as we provided last quarter. In the lower left, we continue to assume a CPUC authorized equity ratio of 52% and a return on equity of 10.4%. Finally in the bottom right corner, we list some of the other factors we believe will affect 2017 earnings from operations. Our guidance assumes that both the GRC settlement and a proposed Phase 2 decision in the gas transmission rate case are approved without material change. And you will recall that we do not seek recovery in the gas transmission rate case for about $50 million of costs in 2017. We are also showing a positive item here for incentive revenues and other benefits, which include things like our energy efficiency programs. I will note that we are no longer showing a positive item for tax benefits, consistent with the guidance we previously provided. And we continue to expect that CWIP earnings will be offset by below-the-line costs, which includes things like charitable contributions, advertising and certain environmental costs. In 2017, we expect that a number of other -- we expect that the other earnings factors listed here will largely offset each other. As a result, we are targeting to earn the CPUC authorized return on equity on rate base for the enterprise as a whole. Turning to slide 27. The guidance for our items impacting comparability ranges from a negative $35 million to a positive $40 million pre-tax. The categories are consistent with the items we had in 2016. The estimated range for pipeline related expenses is $80 million to a $125 million pre-tax. This item relates to clearing our gas transmission rights-of-way. While we are confident in our ability to fully complete the program within this range, there is a chance that a small portion of that work could slip to 2018 due to permitting requirements. We will monitor the program throughout the year and provide updates as we have better information. The second component is legal and regulatory related expenses, which we estimate to be between $10 million and $40 million pre-tax. This represents costs incurred with enforcement, regulatory and litigation activities regarding natural gas matters and regulatory communications. The third component is for potential fines and penalties, again related to natural gas matters and regulatory communications. We are showing a total of $30 million, which reflects a 2017 portion of the disallowed expenses expected from the Phase 2 gas transmission rate case decision. While we haven’t yet reflected the 2017 portion of the ex-parte penalty, we would expect to report an additional $40 million pre-tax after the proposed Phase 2 decision is approved. Butte fire related costs are uncertain in 2017. But this item will reflect any updates to third-party liability estimates, legal costs and insurance receivables. And finally for the gas transmission rate case, we are showing a positive $160 million for the portion of the 2015 and 2016 out-of-period revenues that we plan to recognize in 2017. Turning to slide 28. We assume equity issuance of about $400 million to $600 million in 2017. That compares to roughly $800 million in 2016. The main drivers for the difference are the lower expected San Bruno penalty costs and gas transmission capital disallowance. Partially offsetting these reductions are higher capital expenditures. After 2017, we expect our unrecovered costs to continue to decline as we wrap up the gas transmission rights-of-way program. As a result in 2018 and 2019, we expect to be able to meet our equity needs largely through our internal programs, which can generate about $350 million annually. Moving to slide 29 and 30. We’ve updated our CapEx and rate base guidance through 2019. This year, we are including a breakdown by major rate case. For the general rate case, the numbers are consistent with the all-party settlement we announced earlier this year. For the gas transmission and storage rate case, the numbers are consistent with the assumptions embedded in our Q2 guidance with one exception. We previously assumed that roughly $400 million would be added to rate base in 2017 for the 2011 through 2014 capital spend subject to audit. Because that audit has not yet begun, we are now assuming that the $400 million will be added to rate base in 2018. For the electric transmission owner rate case, we show a small range, which represent the TO18 request at the high end and a TO17 settlement at the low end. We’ve held these assumptions flat through 2019. We’ve also listed some items here that are not included in our rate base assumptions, including primarily any new investments that will be included in the 2019 gas transmission rate case and the 2018, 2019 electric transmission rate cases. Finally, slide 31 is just a reminder that we are targeting a roughly 60% payout ratio for our dividend by 2019. On average, this should provide for above average dividend per share growth. I know we’ve covered a lot this morning. Let me conclude by reiterating the points Tony started with. Over the last six years, our focus on safety has resulted in significant operational improvements. We have a number of strategic advantages that help position us to effectively manage industry changes and we believe our roughly 6.5% to 7% rate base growth and above average dividend per share growth through 2019 make us an attractive investment. With that, I will open it up for questions in the time we have remaining.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed, Mr. Fleishman.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi. Good morning. So, just on the financing plan for 2017 and the equity, is this -- are we pretty much at a level where we are just funding the core business, or we are not really dealing with any of the kind of balance sheet fixes for some of the lingering issues?
Jason Wells:
Hey. Good morning, Steve. The 2017 equity guidance plan does assume that we continue to fund some unrecovered costs, which are primarily related to the clearance of our rights-of-way, our gas transmission business. Otherwise the major driver of the equity plan is our CapEx and the needs of our CapEx spending.
Steve Fleishman:
And how much -- is that a $100 million still or is that a different rights-of-way for $75million?
Jason Wells:
We are estimating between $80 million to $125 million for the year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay.
Jason Wells:
Pre-tax.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then one other high-level question. Tony, you mentioned in terms of the affordability stuff, you have a lot of your old PPA contract rolling off over the next five years?
Tony Earley:
That’s correct.
Steve Fleishman:
My recollection is some of these probably are pretty high pricing. So, I’m just curious how much potential rate headroom that creates over the long-term or any kind of just sense of that?
Tony Earley:
Yes. Steve, the way to look at is -- our objective is to maintain a rate trajectory to approximate the rate of inflation and you’ve got several levers to pull. One is we are working hard on efficiencies within our operations. But as you recognized, another will be the cost of purchase power. And you are absolutely right. Some of the early renewable contracts that we signed probably decade ago were significantly higher and while those aren’t changes that fall to the bottom line as such but they are changes that affect affordability because they directly affect the customer bill. So, we are working on pulling those levers. And then we have a number of other balancing accounts. So, we continue to work on where again, don’t necessarily fall to the bottom line but give us more headroom when we invest the capital that we see we are going to be investing over the next decade or so.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Smith with UBS. You may proceed.
Julien Smith:
Hi. Two questions here. First, little bit more detailed, when you think about the cost of capital proceeding coming up, can you give us some comments on what the tailwinds you are seeing in your cost of debt versus what’s embedded in rates today and willingness to potentially use that as something as part of the ongoing conversations? I will stop there.
Tony Earley:
Cost of capital or any settlement discussions are confidential. But what I would say in terms of the embedded benefit for cost of that is roughly around $75 million a year.
Julien Smith:
Got it. And that’s pretty stable right now.
Tony Earley:
That’s kind of what we are currently experiencing. Now, I will have to see what rates, how rates move and what our upcoming issuances look like.
Julien Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And then going back a little bit higher level, you commented one of the erosions in your sales forecast relates to CCAs. Can you comment on what the pace of the CCA is and just broadly what that means for your business? I know there is puts and takes but I’d just be curious, specifically on the procurement front, what does that mean?
Tony Earley:
Geisha Williams will comment on that.
Geisha Williams:
Hi, Julien. This is Geisha. So, we have CCA activity going on at various stages of development or at various stages of considerations. Some of the CCAs, some of the communities present larger amounts of loads than others and so it’s really a probabilistic view of trying to figure out when certain CCAs are going to happen, what kind of load might affect the partner. Now, remember that they would only be responsible for providing the energy, the energy side of the business. We would still be responsible for the T&D business. So, as we look at our load projections, it is kind of difficult to pinpoint it down to a particular number in terms of what we might be able to see from CCAs. It can move pretty quickly. And in other cases we see CCA is taking longer, sometimes up to 18 months or 24 months. So it’s a bit fluid is how I would answer that.
Julien Smith:
Got it. Maybe just curious, do you think broadly the tariff structure, the exits and ongoing payments are sort of reflective of what the incurred costs?
Steve Malnight:
Hey, Julien. This is Steve Malnight from Regulatory Affairs. As we look back, we are constantly working with the commission on how to continue to revisit and look at the cost allocation mechanisms that are in place. I will say as Geisha alluded to, I think when we look forward, we see a significant expansion of CCA load growth and that’s one of the reasons why the Diablo Canyon settlement made sense for us. So in light of that, we continue to go back and look. And I think that it’s likely that those mechanisms will evolve as the marketplace evolves as well.
Julien Smith:
Got it. Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Smith. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Tony Earley:
Good morning, Jon.
Jason Wells:
Hi, Jon.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thanks for all the details. Just a quick question. You indicated that the items kind of other than regular rate base type of math would amount to about zero in 2017. Any reason to see that changing, as you look out into ‘18 and ‘19 that’s obvious?
Tony Earley:
It continues to remain our objective to earn our authorized return on equity. What I will say is the gas transmission and storage Phase 1 decision created some challenges for us in terms of mandated work levels and certain cost gaps. However, we are going to continue to drive efficiencies to offset these challenges to enable us to earn our authorized return. So, I think that should be focus, earning the authorized return on equity across the enterprise as a whole.
Jonathan Arnold:
And then just sort of a little detailed. I think you said that going forward ‘18, ’19, you think you could hit your equity needs largely through internal plans and that they generate about 350 a year. Should we be using 350, is it little higher or?
Tony Earley:
I was going to stick with what I had said, which was it will largely meet our equity needs.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thanks. All right. That’s it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Arnold. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys. Congrats. Tony, one question, the slide on grid modernization and the $1 billion spend, just curios is all of that embedded in some of the GRC settlement in your distribution spend that you have over the next few years, or we have to go into the CPUC and request approval of this in some kind of memo account?
Tony Earley:
The approach we’re making is to embed our grid modernization in our GRC cases, in our transmission system cases. So, we’ve been making these investments probably for close to a decade and we continue to make and the $1 billion numbers are estimate of what it’s going to be in the next couple years coming up.
Geisha Williams:
As a reminder, I would say most of it has already been approved but there is a component that we are still seeking recovery from in terms of our TO case.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And turning to the TO on the electric side, just curious how do you think about what the trajectory of electric transmission spend is over the next three to five years, kind of flattish to what you’ve got in 2016, 2017 potentially elevated and what could be some of the drivers that could move that around?
Geisha Williams:
Yes. I think as you look at the next -- clearly through 2019, you are going see a pretty flat but pretty robust spend in TO. And that’s really driven by a number of things but a lot as we look beyond 2019 frankly, will be with renewals integration work. As we seek to achieve a 55% RPS goal by 2031, we recognized that we are going to need to continue to invest in our transmission infrastructure. So, a strong amount of capital through 2019 and although we are not providing guidance beyond it, I would imagine that we continue with the similar type of expenditure.
Michael Lapides:
And then finally when I look at your CapEx budget, so kind of in the $6 billion range for the next three years, pretty flat actually, not kind of accelerating which is fine. But that would imply that free cash flow should improve, right because you get D&A, you have some other items like insurance proceeds and those things that add to some cash flow. So should we think about -- your earnings growth may slow down a little bit in the backend of this forecast because CapEx is just confined at the $6 billion level but maybe your cash flow actually accelerates each year relative to the prior one?
Tony Earley:
I think that’s -- there's a couple of things that are moving against towards those assumptions. So what we’ve seen is sort of an increase in the regulatory lag for cash recoveries, certain items. One of the things that I would point to would be our expenditures for our wildfire prevention costs, which are pretty significant given the drought in the state and that’s generally been taking us three years -- between the time we spend the money and when we collected in rates. And so there are offsetting factors that I would point to that would offset the cash acceleration that you mentioned.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. Thanks guys. Much appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you, Michael. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Turnure with J.P. Morgan. You may proceed.
Chris Turnure:
Good morning. I wanted to focus on the equity needs for next year. You saw a pretty good range there of $200 million. What is embedded in that assumption in terms of proceeds from insurance on the Butte fire or other factors that might move you to the top or bottom end of the range?
Tony Earley:
We continue to expect to see recovery for all of our insured losses from insurers. There will be a timing lag between points in which we recognize the charge for the costs when we actually paid those and when we collect them. Since they are mostly timing related items, we’d expect to try to finance as much as possible with short-term financing.
Chris Turnure:
Okay. And when you think about the GT&S 2011 to ’14 audit, you are kind of putting that into 2018 rate base. Right now is that a full assumption of the amount that’s being reviewed and how can we think about the considerations that that audit group will be taking into consideration there?
Tony Earley:
Yes. The $400 million reflect the full rate base impact subject to audits and we feel good about the spend. We feel it was prudent. We feel it was necessary. So, we are going to have to go through that out. You are going to have to make your assumptions around any perspective we will receive from our regulators but we feel confident enough to have proposed it and we will continue to seek recovery of it through the audit.
Chris Turnure:
And what about timing there? Is early 2018 a conservative assumption that could be accelerated?
Tony Earley:
There wasn’t really a timing ascribed to the audit in the Phase 1 gas transmission rate case. So that’s why we conservatively move the rate base impact to 2018. I think it’s just going to be important to follow the timing of the audit here throughout 2017 to make assumptions on ultimate timing of collection.
Chris Turnure:
Okay. That makes sense. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse. You may proceed.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, guys. Question on the $1 billion grid modernization investment plan, how much of that or how much upside is there potentially when you look at that versus the distribution resource plan that are filed? Specifically, I’m thinking of the amount that you originally intended to spend on let’s say for example, electric vehicles. That’s been pared back and I’m just wondering if there’s more -- if there is more spending that you would like to do beyond the $1 billion that just simply hasn’t been approved yet or that you’re not planning on filing immediately and how long could that go out for?
Geisha Williams:
Hi, Michael. This is Geisha. We’ve been at this grid modernization for quite some time now. And we’ve continued to be making investments for the last five, six years and so what’s reflected on page 20 is our estimate of the work that we intend to do through 2020. As we get more insights and we continue to work with the commission on the DER plan, on IDER and the DRP, there could be additional sort of changes along the way. But we would invest. We would actually seek that recovery through future rate cases. So, I think in terms of an outlook through 2020, I think what we are showing on page 20 is accurate.
Michael Weinstein:
All right. Not expected to change much then. And then also on the equity range, just going back to that previous question that you said that the timing high versus low depends on insurance recoveries, is that accurate?
Tony Earley:
No, I wouldn’t count the insurance recoveries for the Butte fire in that equity issuance guidance. What I was referring to is there is going to be a timing difference between ultimately when we report the charge, when we pay out the cash and when we collect it from insurers. Since that is largely a timing related issue, financing those payments we will do so through short-term financing options.
Michael Weinstein:
Like so how -- what are the factors that vary between the high and low end of the equity range for 2017?
Tony Earley:
I think there is going to be a lot of factors in terms of sort of timing of recoveries. As I mentioned, I think we are seeing a trend towards a lag in cash recovery of certain expenditures, particularly as I mentioned wildfire prevention costs. Our last application for recovering those costs was about $200 million. And so we continue to accelerate the spend in terms of preventing wildfires here in the state because of the drought. So there are assumptions on the recovery that could push us, recovery of cash that could push us to the upper end of that range.
Michael Weinstein:
Got you. Thank you
Operator:
Thank you, Michael. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. You may proceed.
Anthony Crowdell:
Good morning. Just a question on CWIP. I guess prior to the San Bruno incident, I think CWIP was split, half went to shareholders, half went for below-the-line costs. As you’ve cleared maybe a lot of the issues related to the San Bruno incident, you’ve cleared them up. Is there still a need with this level of below-the-line costs?
Tony Earley:
It would be hard for us right now to say we could cut back on them. We still are dealing with some San Bruno issues. But also as we look forward with this size of capital investment, we’ve got to make sure the public understands why we are investing in renewables, why we are investing in electric vehicles. So, I would be reluctant to say we could cut back on those costs in the next couple years certainly.
Anthony Crowdell:
Okay. And just, last question and Anthony, you don’t have to answer, that’s fine. Just when you had started this endeavor of turning the company around, you looked at a timeframe of maybe three to four years, kind of in five years. I think the slides today you put out really show how much the company has been transformed over that time. Do you see yourself still around there through this transformation or you thinking other things?
Tony Earley:
I’m having a great time. I love seeing these slides. We pulled them together and you are making progress that when you lay them out. It’s fun to see how things have come together. I talk to our Board all the time about our talent development plans and at some point we will make a decision about transition but I'm not going to speculate. I’m having too good of a time.
Anthony Crowdell:
Okay. Thanks for taking my question.
Operator:
Thank you, Anthony. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. You may proceed.
Praful Mehta:
Thank you and thanks a lot for the slides. They are very helpful. Quick question on business update and I guess an important component of that is regulatory relationships. How do you see that having transitioned over this transformation and are there anything that you are looking to achieve, or any trackers that we should look for that would suggest where regulatory relationships stand today?
Steve Malnight:
Hi. This is Steve Malnight. So, I would say we recognize that over the last several years we’ve had a need to focus on rebuilding trust with our regulators and stakeholders externally. We have really made intensive efforts at that and are continuing to increase our engagement with commissioners, with staff, with interveners, all with clear eye toward the ex parte rules and restrictions. And I think that those kinds of efforts have really paid off as we are working on trying to settle key cases or other things. So, we're going to really continue on that path and keep moving forward. I think that between the commission and PG&E we share tremendous common interest on ensuring that this company runs a safe, reliable, and affordable and clean system and that's we're going to keep working.
Geisha Williams:
What I'd like to add too is, if you look at the role of the regulator I mean, they ultimately wanting sure that we're delivering safe and reliable service to our customers. And so, when you look at the slide deck that's been put together and you look at the type of improvement that we've made over the last five or six years, we feel good about it and we think it’s a foundational basis of conversation with our regulators about the good work that we've done. So, I think that it's about making sure you're delivering great service to your customers and that in turn ultimately we believe leads to improved relationships with our regulator as well.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. That's very helpful. Thanks. And then, secondly in terms of retail rates, you've really pointed out that something that you're focused on which make sense. And as you're looking forward post 2019 and you're looking at growth rates relative to keeping retail rates in check. Is there is deepening off of the growth you see over time balancing off these different considerations or how do you see that growth being maintained through the post 2019 period?
Jason Wells:
I think we are going to look at lot of factors here, Tony mentioned earlier on the call the fact that we've potentially got some headroom associated with our expiring procurement contracts. Our focus is continue to drive efficiency in our operations to keep our rates affordable. And kind of as we mentioned the trends we're seeing for capital investment, we think our longer term and extent beyond this 2019 period. So our objective is to kind of balance the need for that system investment while continuing to drive efficiencies in all aspects of the customers build.
Tony Earley:
And there are structural things in rates that the commission has already laid out [audio gap] dynamic area, but we watch it very closely, so we don't get rates spiking in any part of the state.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Praful. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Fallon with Citgroup – I'm sorry Citadel. You may proceed.
Kevin Fallon:
I had a question on slide 10 on the dividend that you are targeting in 2019 of $2.40. Are you guys implicitly trying to lead people to earnings power of $4 in 2019? Or does the roughly 60% payout range fall in the old guidance of 55% to 65%?
Jason Wells:
I think we're not trying to lead there, we're trying to focus on a 60% payout ratio of our earnings to 2019 and our objective is to get there over the next several years. [audio gap] that's correct yes.
Kevin Fallon:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Kevin. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. You may proceed.
Travis Miller:
All right. Thank you.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Travis Miller:
With respect to the grid modernization investments, the $1 billion and then any other extra that might come of that, how do you think about rate recovery for that? Are you thinking GRC? Are you thinking other trackers? Is there something else completely different out there? Help me think about the recovery of that?
Geisha Williams:
I think you should think of it in terms of the regular recovery we through the GRC and the TO rate case, that's the approach we've taken over the last six to ten years now. We have been investing in our grid at a pretty good clip. It’s a big part of the reason we're seeing the improved reliability and as we look at future GRC that will be the right mechanism for distribution and infrastructure improvements modernization and cases for the transmission piece.
Travis Miller:
Got it. Are any of these initiatives you would expect to either request or get rate tracker treatment and annual true up type treatment?
Geisha Williams:
The one that sort of a little bit different is probably the electric vehicle. That would be outside. It’s a separate sort of filing. We're expecting to get a decision on that hopefully in the near term, so that's an example of one falls outside the GRC. And there could be others, but right now we don't think of anything else. We really do like putting everything for the GRC and using the TO rate case for transmission as well.
Travis Miller:
Great. Appreciate it. Thanks.
Geisha Williams:
You bet.
Operator:
Thank you, Travis. There are currently no additional questions waiting in queue.
Janet Loduca:
Alright. Great. Thanks Monique, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to seeing many of you next week at the EEI conference. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you ladies and gentlemen for attending the PG&E Corporation third quarter earnings conference. This will now conclude the conference. Please enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Janet Loduca – Vice President, Investor Relations Tony Earley – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jason Wells – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Hyun Park – Senior Vice President and General Counsel Geisha Williams – President, Electric Steve Malnight – Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs
Analysts:
Steve Fleishman – Wolfe Research Anthony Crowdell – Jefferies Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Greg Gordon – Evercore ISI Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Chris Turnure – JPMorgan Praful Mehta – Citigroup Michael Weinstein – Credit Suisse Angie Storozynski – Macquarie Group
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time I’d like to introduce your hostess, Ms Janet Loduca. Thank you and enjoy your conference. You may proceed, Ms. Loduca.
Janet Loduca:
Thank you, Jackie, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlooks for future financial results which are based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the Company’s actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s slide deck. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that will – appears there and in the 2015 annual report. With that I’ll hand it over to Tony.
Tony Earley:
Well, thank you, Janet, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us this morning on what I know is a busy day for all of you. I’m going to start with some opening remarks and then turn it over to Jason to go through our financial results. We continue to believe that the key focus area shown on slide three provide the foundation for operational and financial success. So I’ll start with how we’re thinking about the future in the context of California’s clean energy policies. With the passage of AB350 last year California will be doubling its energy efficiency goals and increasing the renewable portfolio standard to 50% by 2030. Over time these mandates will impact both our electric procurement needs and our investment opportunities. On the investment side California’s policies will drive capital expenditures in both the electric distribution and transmission systems. We’re going to have to continue to upgrade the distribution grid to sport increasing levels of distributor resources, and we’ll need new and upgraded transmission lines to support the utility scale renewables required to meet the higher RPS standards. On the procurement side we expect electric demand to decrease as customers continue to reduce the energy they need from PG&E through energy efficiency and distributed generation. We also expect that some cities will pursue community choice aggregation where they will purchase their own generation. As we consider the changing energy landscape in California became clear to us that we needed to take a hard look at the future of Diablo Canyon. Working with a diverse coalition of labor and environmental groups we crafted a joint proposal to retire Diablo Canyon at the end of its current license terms which are 2024 for one unit and 2025 for another and to replace it with a greenhouse gas free portfolio of renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy storage. We’ve also voluntarily committed to a 55% RPS target beginning in 2031. I’m very pleased to report that the State lands commission recently extended the lease for Diablo Canyon’s intake and outflow structures so that it now runs through the current NRC license terms, and that was an important first step in carrying out our plan. In August we’ll be filing an application for CPUC approval of the joint proposal by the end of 2017. We believe the joint proposal fully supports California’s long-term clean energy goals while providing time for a thoughtful transition to new greenhouse gas free resources. Turning to customer expectations, we’ve made significant progress in all of our key rate cases during the quarter. As you know we received a final decision on the first phase of the 2015 gas transmission and storage rate case in June. The decision acknowledged the need to continue investing in the safety of the system and authorized revenues for much of the work that we had requested. Given the significant delays in the case that also included revenues for an additional attrition year in 2018. In a separate phase of the case the commission will consider how to allocate the $850 million disallowance ordered last year as part of the San Bruno penalty decision. We hope to get a final phase 2 decision sometime this fall. And Jason’s going to take you through our expectations around the financial impacts of that decision which is quite complex. Moving on to our General Rate Case which covers most of our business. We’ve been engaged in settlement discussions with other parties over the last few months. Last week we filed a notice of settlement conference which will take place on August 3. But given the confidentiality of settlement discussions we can’t really comment further today, but we do consider this a positive development. We’re also continuing to have settlement discussions in the TO 17 rate case. The rates are in place subject to refund while the case is pending. And tomorrow will be filing our next electric transmission rate case TO 18. We’ll be requesting an additional $100 million in capital expenditures which we’ve incorporated into our multi-year projections. Let me shift to the operational side of things. As we get into the driest part of the year, we’ve launched aggressive fire preparedness efforts focused on prevention, detection and response. Although we have had more rain this year than last, California’s experiencing significant tree mortality following several years of drought. To mitigate this increased fire risk we’re supplementing our annual inspections by conducting daily aerial patrols and proactive foot patrols over fire prone parts of our service territory. And finally we continue to work towards resolving outstanding issues. In June we received a presiding officer’s decision in the gas distribution record keeping investigation. Overall we thought the decision was balanced recognizing the actions we’ve taken to improve our records and the safety of the system and finding that many of the violations were isolated rather than systemic issues. The safety and enforcement division and the city of Carmel have appealed the decision seeking a higher fine, and we now are waiting for a commission to issue a final decision. The federal trial in the – or the trial in the federal criminal case began in June. And the case was submitted to the jury yesterday. Because we’re in the sensitive part of the trial we’re just not in a position to comment on any of the specific evidence or testimony. I can tell you that we continue to believe that no PG&E employee knowingly and willfully violated the law, but now it’s in the hands of the jury. So to sum things up, we are working to resolve all of our pending rate cases, and we continue to make steady progress on outstanding regulatory and legal issues. And we are well-positioned to help drive California’s clean energy future through sustained investments. So with that let me hand it over to Jason to walk you through our financials. Jason?
Jason Wells:
Thank you, Tony, and good morning everyone. Before I get into the second quarter results I want to provide a brief overview of the phase 1 gas transmission rate case decision. I’ll start by saying that this is one of the most complicated rate case decisions we’ve ever seen. Our financial results and projections reflect a number of key assumptions and new items from the decision. So I want to make sure that we’re all grounded on those. Turning to Slide 4, the first thing I’ll cover is revenue recognition. Because the decision came so late in the rate case period, we have not collected any incremental revenues for 2015 or for the first seven months of 2016. Those incremental revenues make up our under collected amounts. There are two important points I’d like to cover regarding incremental revenues. First, while the phase 1 decision allows us to begin billing customers on August 1, we would not be able to recognize the full true up of the under collected revenues until after the phase 2 decision when we know the final revenue requirement. Second, the phase 1 decision requires us to amortize these under collected amounts over 36 months. Utility accounting rules allow us to recognize revenues only if they will be collected within 24 months of the end of the year. As a result, assuming we get a final phase 2 decision by year-end, we will recognize 29 months out of the 36 month amortization period in 2016. The 29 months includes the actual revenues we will collect in the remaining five months of 2016 plus the amounts we will collect over the subsequent 24 months. This means we’ll recognize the remaining seven months of under collected amounts in the first quarter of 2017. These revenue recognition factors are important assumptions for the guidance I’ll be covering today. The decision also impacts our capital expenditure forecasts. First it permanently disallows a portion of the 2011 though 2014 capital spend that we sought to true up in this rate case and subjects the remaining portion to audit with potential for future recovery. The decision also includes a number of programs specific cost caps in one way balancing accounts. Since we are not in a position to adjust the spending we’ve already completed, we anticipate that some capital programs will exceed the authorized amounts over the rate case that will not be recoverable in the future. As I’ll discuss in a minute, we’ve taken one-time charge for this during the quarter for those items. And finally the phase 2 decision allocating the $850 million San Bruno penalty creates some additional uncertainty. Several parties have suggested that all of the $850 million should be allocated to expense. For purposes of today’s presentation, we assume that we receive a final phase 2 decision this year and that the penalty will be allocated to roughly $690 million in capital and $160 million in expense consistent with the original San Bruno penalty decision. We’ll obviously need to make adjustments if the phase 2 decision changes that allocation. So with that overview let’s go through the financials. Slide 5 shows ours results for the second quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $0.66. GAAP earnings including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. Pipeline related expenses came in at $27 million pretax for the quarter. Our legal and regulatory related expenses were $14 million pretax, and fines and penalties were $172 million pretax. The fines and penalties items, reflects two components this quarter. The first component represents our estimate of the disallowed safety-related capital resulting from the San Bruno penalty decision which we are accruing as we complete the work. This item totaled $148 million pretax for the quarter. The second component is a fine of $24 million for the gas distribution record keeping investigation. For now we reflected the presiding officer’s decision. We’ll make any necessary adjustments when the commission rules on the appeals. Butte fire related costs also reflect two components. First we booked $49 million pretax for additional cleanup, repair and legal costs associated with the Butte fire. We do not expect any additional cleanup and repair costs in the future. This item is offset by a positive insurance receivable of $260 million which reflects the low end of the range for estimated insurance recoveries. The two components net to a positive $211 million pretax. One important note regarding the insurance receivable. While we have recorded the low end of the range at this time, we plan to seek full recovery of cost for insurance and believe that nearly all the third-party claims will ultimately be recovered through insurance. So the $260 million receivable should not be interpreted as a ceiling on insurance recovery. The next line item GT&S capital disallowance is new this quarter. We booked a charge of $190 million pretax reflecting the two components of disallowed capital I discussed on slide 4 which are the $135 million for work performed in 2011 through 2014 plus $55 million for capital spending 2015 through 2018 that we expect will exceed authorized cost caps. The last line relates to the impact and the timing of the gas transmission rate case decision. This is where we will reflect out of period GT&S revenues once we begin recognizing them. To ensure that our 2016 results are comparable year-over-year, we plan to reflect all of the revenues authorized for our 2016 cost of service and earnings from operations this year. And reflect the out of period revenues as an item impacting comparability. Consistent with the revenue recognition factors on slide four, this item will continue into 2017 when we recognize the remaining seven months of the out of period revenues. Moving on, Slide 6 shows our quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations of $0.91 in Q2 last year and $0.66 in Q2 this year. The timing of taxes during the quarter with $0.08 negative. As a reminder this line is purely a timing item that in total will reverse by year-end. A number of smaller miscellaneous items totalled $0.08 negative for the quarter. And nuclear refueling outage during the quarter resulted in $0.06 negative, regulatory and legal matters totalled $0.05 negative for the quarter and issuing additionally shares resulted in $0.03 negative. These negative drivers were partially offset by growth in rate-based earnings which was $0.05 positive for the quarter. This item reflects assets covered by our General Rate Case and our electric transmission TO rate case. It does not include the gas transmission rate case since we did not recognize any revenue increase in Q2. Today we are reaffirming our guidance for earnings from operations of $3.65 to $3.85 per share, and that is shown on slide 7 along with GAAP guidance. On Slide 8, you can see the underlying assumptions for that guidance which we’ve updated to reflect the phase 1 gas transmission rate case decision. Starting at the top left, we assumed capital expenditures of roughly $5.6 billion for the year consistent with the last quarter. The gas transmission CapEx is now $700 million consistent with the amounts authorized in the phase 1 decision. Last quarter we shared a range of $500 million to $700 million. We’ve also reduced the electric distribution CapEx by $50 million to reflect our current spending for projections. Moving to the top right we’ve also adjusted our assumption for a weighted average authorized rate base to about $32.4 billion from our previous assumption of about $32.6 billion. Consistent with the phase 1 gas transmission rate case decision we’ve adjusted the gas transmission rate base to $2.8 billion down from $3 billion to $3.4 billion range we showed last quarter. This reduction is driven primarily a removal of the roughly $700 million in 2011 through 2014 capital spend that we had expected to true up in rate base this year. As a reminder rate base incorporates depreciation and deferred taxes. So it’s not a one-for-one relationship with capital expenditures particularly since this capital was spent several years ago. As a result, the rate base impact of this spend is closer to $500 million. On the bottom right, I want to reiterate that our 2016 guidance assumes that we received a final phase 2 decision in the gas transmission rate case this year and that it allocates the disallowance of safety-related spend consistent with the San Bruno penalty decision. The other bullets are consistent with what we’ve shown here before. The bottom line is that based on these assumptions we continue to target earning our authorized return on equity across the enterprise plus the net impact of the other earnings factors listed here. Turning to Slide 9, the guidance for 2016 items impacting comparability has been updated to include the phase 1 gas transmission rate case decision and our assumptions for phase 2. I will walk through each of these items briefly. There’s no change to the range for pipeline related costs which covers the work to reclaim our rights of way. Legal and regulatory related expenses also remain unchanged. The fines and penalties item has been adjusted for two items. First the guidance includes the $24 million accrual for the presiding officer’s decision in the gas distribution record keeping investigation. And second, the disallowed expense charge for the San Bruno penalty has been reduced from $116 million to $130 million due to the ## month amortization period. The remaining $30 million will shift to 2017. This item excludes any additional potential future fines or penalties beyond our current assumptions for the distribution record-keeping penalty and the San Bruno penalty. When we have a final phase 2 decision in the gas transmission rate case we will also include the associated ex parte penalty in this item. The Butte fire related costs are shown next. At this time we remain unable to estimate the high end of the range for third-party damages associated with the fire. As a reminder, last quarter we booked $350 million to reflect our estimate of the low end of the range for property damage. This quarter we recorded an insurance receivable of $260 million reflecting the low end of the range for estimated insurance recoveries. The remaining amounts reflect our recorded legal and operational costs associated with the Butte fire. Next we show the new item impact in comparability for the GT&S capital disallowance which is consistent with the assumptions shown on Slide 4. The last item covers the impact of the timing of the GT&S decision. The $350 million shown here reflects the 29 months of out of period revenues we expect to recognize in 2016. As I mentioned this item will continue into 2017 when we recognize the remaining seven months. Moving on to Slide 10. We currently expect to issue right around $800 million in equity and 2016 so we’ve eliminated the range we’ve showed in Q1. The incremental equity required by the new charges to this quarter is roughly offset by the Butte fire insurance receivable. In the first half of this year we issued about $300 million through our internal and Dribble programs. Turning to Slide 11, we are updating the multi-year CapEx ranges. For gas and electric distribution and generation the high end of the range continues to reflect the requested amounts in the General Rate Case through 2019. For gas transmission the high end of the range through 2018 has been reduced to reflect the lower authorized CapEx in the phase 1 decision in the gas transmission rate case. These expenditures are held flat in 20189. For electric transmission the high end of the range in 2017 now reflects the request in the TO 18 electric transmission rate case which we will file tomorrow. These expenditures are held flat in 2018 and 2019. Taken together these changes reduce the high end of the range to $6.4 billion compared to $6.5 billion shown last quarter. The low end of the range remains consistent with our 2015 capital spending. Overall you can see that we continue to expect robust capital spending going forward. On Slide 12 we’ve updated the rate based ranges consistent with the capital spending on the previous slide. The high end of the range also assumes that the portion of the 2011 through 2014 capital spend that is subject to audit is added to rate base in 2017. These adjustments narrow the range of rate based to a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% to 6.5% between 2017 and 2019. Finally we’ve added a new Slide 13 showing our dividend payout ratio targets. Consistent with our announcement during the quarter we increased the dividend this year by about 8% to $0.96 per share. We are targeting a 55% to 65% payout ratio with a specific objective of reaching 60% by 2019. I know we’ve covered a lot this morning. Let me close by saying that we continue to reach important regulatory, financial and operational milestones, and we are confident in our ability to deliver on our plans as we position the Company for future success. So with that let’s open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, hi everyone. Good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning, Steve.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Steve Fleishman:
Can you hear me? So I think I got all the moving pieces here and appreciate you going through it. Just to clarify so on the GT&S rate base that’s subject to the audit, that is excluded from the 2016 rate base but then it comes back in and 2017?
Jason Wells:
That is correct.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay.
Jason Wells:
At the high end for the 2017 rate base.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. At the high end. Okay. Is there – while in 2016 while it’s kind of in this limbo, do you have any earnings on it like non-rate base earnings or only when it goes in to rate base? Does it get like AFDC or something or some kind of treatment?
Jason Wells:
No. It’s not earnings rate base in 2016.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. So for example it’s not in your 2016 guidance essentially range or earning money on that?
Jason Wells:
That’s right. We pulled it out and that was really the key adjustment to the gas transmission and storage rate base reflected in our assumptions.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just the high end of the rate base ranges through 2019, the reason those came down is what then? A little bit?
Jason Wells:
We’re tightening the ranges because we because of the gas transmission phase 1 decision. Historically they’ve reflected the high end of the range that we – based on the amounts requested in the case. And now that we have a decision on that CapEx and rate base, we’re adjusting the ranges to be consistent with that decision. That reduction – I was just going to mention that reduction is offset by a small increase from electric transmission.
Steve Fleishman:
Got it. And you kind of narrowed brought the high end down brought the low end up? Kind of narrowed the rate.
Jason Wells:
Yes you know I think as we resolve some of these regulatory proceedings we’re getting more certain on what the range is and that’s what this narrowing reflects.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just on equity, you had the same amount of shares maybe this is just a rounding thing, but you had the same amount of shares outstanding at the end of Q1 and Q2 but you’re saying you issued $300 million in equity, and I recall that are being lower for Q1?
Jason Wells:
I don’t have the Q1 number in front of me, but we did issue through the second quarter of the year $300 million in additional equity for 2016.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Okay. I think that’s all I had. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Anthony Crowdell:
Good morning. There was a story in one of the industry papers that spoke about the trial and said the judge in the federal trial had maybe lowered the bar on proving a willingness I guess for a guilty verdict, and I know you can’t speak about the trial, but I’m wondering is there a lower bar in the decision of an alternative fines act, or is there a higher standard there than in the criminal trial?
Tony Earley:
Let me ask Hyun Park our General Counsel to comment on it.
Hyun Park:
Yes, so I don’t think that relate to the alternative fines act portion. I have not seen the specific article that you’re talking about. But I think what you may be referring to is a jury instruction that the judge gave with respect to willfulness in the context of a corporation as a defendant, and he said that you do have to find that a specific employee acted willfully even in the Corporation context. So that may be what you are referring to.
Anthony Crowdell:
Yes. That’s correct. And then lastly on related to the alternative fines act has there been any discussion on what the gross gain was realized by the Company?
Hyun Park:
So it’s the number that appears in the indictment which is $281 million. That’s what the government has alleged and under the alternative finds act if they can prove beyond a reasonable doubt, that the criminal violations led to the $281 million gain then under the act you can actually double that as the maximum fine.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great [indiscernible]
Tony Earley:
But there will be no discussion of that unless we get to a phase 2 in the trial.
Anthony Crowdell:
Okay, great. Thanks for taking my question.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Crowdell. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So just to think a little bit more strategically here, obviously developments with Diablo Canyon how are you thinking about the eligibility for utility owned assets to replace the $2 billion or so in rate base today for Diablo Canyon? And then separately I’d be curious, what is the impact to consumers from a bill inflation perspective for the Diablo Canyon early retirement? Or I suppose retirement without extensions?
Geisha Williams:
Julien, hi, this is Geisha Williams. So regarding the Diablo Canyon issue and utility ownership of replacement power our intention is to issue a number of trenches the first thing being energy efficiency the second one being non-GHG resources, and in both cases those will the open for a competitive solicitation and of course the utility could conceivably be a bidder in that regard. So it’s possible. But that’s to be determined in the future. As far as replacement of the rate base that’s beyond the – I guess the guidance period for us or for the period for which we are looking at our rate based but I mean obviously if you look at the structure the regulatory structure here in California than really conducive because you need to add the modernize the infrastructure. We’ve had a very healthy capital program for many years and I don’t see that changing but again, what that may look like beyond 2024, 2025 is to be determined.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it, okay. And then just turning back to the other side of the numbers if you will. Elaborating a little bit on Steve’s question can you comment real quickly in your numbers what’s reflected for if you were to get a decision in the near-term on the CapEx versus expense how you would recognize that, would you immediately reflect if it was to be an expense in your numbers and that would be an uplift for the back half as soon as you got that outcome?
Jason Wells:
I think this GT&S rate case is a pretty complex one so, our guidance assumes that the phase 2 decision allocates the San Bruno penalty disallowance consistent with the original allocation so about 80% as a capital disallowance and about 20% as expense. As you know, we’ve been accruing the capital portion of the disallowance since we first originally received that decision, and so really what remains outstanding is the disallowance for expense. And what we’ve talked about in the past is that disallowance for that expense is really a disallowance of incremental revenues. So I would say the one key change for the quarter is that given the 36 month amortization period which prevents us from recognizing all of the true up revenues essentially we only recognize about $130 million of that San Bruno expense disallowance here in 2016. The remaining $30 million which we had thought would be recognized in 2016 is now expected to be recognized in 2017 assuming that the allocation between capital and expense does not change in the phase 2 decision.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Just to be clear, as soon as the – when you get the decision that’s when the expense hits or the true up and then going forward the rate base would be adjusted correspondingly as post the next update provides?
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. As soon as we get the final decision that’s when we would take that $130 million disallowance for expense, but it is the final decision that we need before we record that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Smith. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
So, when we think about earnings from operations and we go from 2016 to 2017, 2017 to 2018, 2018 to 2019 we should be thinking about the rate base slide you show us on page 12 and what we think the earnings power is of the business there net of other factors and what the other factors would be on page 8. So I guess the big question is what we’re looking at 2018 in 2019 earnings, how many – are we going to be through this period where there are these multiple bridge line items from operating basis earnings to GAAP basis earnings? Once we’re in 2018 in 2019 do you expect that all of the repercussions accounting differences from all this complex rate making and disallowances will be behind us and that they’ll be a very tight band between your operating basis earnings in your GAAP basis earnings? If not what will be continuing on?
Jason Wells:
Thank you for the question. Assuming no new items, we do expect that we will resolve these lingering issues by 2017. So that in 2018 through 2019, our EPS growth will more closely align to the rate base growth that is presented on Slide 12. I will say though that we have a strong CapEx program, and if we spend at the higher end of that range we will be required to issue some additional equity to fund that. And so there will be a small amount of dilution from those – from that additional equity, but our earnings profile should more closely match our rate based starting in 2018.
Tony Earley:
Greg, this is Tony. I look at the left side I should point out that the Butte fire related costs that are listed there on Slide 9, historically those sorts of issues not only with us but with other California go on for multiple years. But certainly the gap will, will narrow because a lot of the other regulatory stuff should drop off.
Greg Gordon:
Great. That’s – investors just want to understand the real earnings power of the company is so that they can think out where your dividends going given what you’ve articulated as the policy so that they can put the right value on the shares which looks like it’s a lot higher than where it is trading now, but I think we’ve got to get through some of these complex issues first. So thanks guys. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Gordon. Our next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Picking up on equity and a couple of the other themes, does the way in which you’re going to recognize the GT&S with some of it rolling over into 2017, does have the effect of having pulled forward some equity pushing you into that higher end in 2016, but maybe tempering whatever you may or may not have to do in 2017?
Jason Wells:
The delay in terms of getting a final decision here that allows us to recognize this revenue has a small impact. This is really a timing related item that we’re going to look to address appropriately with our financing, but it does have a small impact on our equity needs here in 2016.
Jonathan Arnold:
And on 2017 how should we be thinking about whether you will or won’t be an issuer in 2017? How much variability is there depending on some have these other pieces shake out?
Jason Wells:
Well, I think it’s – there are going to be a couple of items that in our items impacting comparability that transition into 2017. I still think the dominant item in our gas business that we’re focused on is finishing our pipeline rights-of-way program where we’re reclaiming our rights away. As we said that’s a five year program not to exceed $500 million that we will completed 2017. The rest of the – there will be some small adjustments related to the GT&S revenue timing impact that I mentioned. Those will largely net out, and so I think it starts to look like a more normal equity pattern in 2018 but certainly substantially reduced from 2016.
Jonathan Arnold:
So I mean I guess reduced, more normal, what is the new normal? How much of 2016 do you consider to be kind of outside of the normal?
Jason Wells:
We’re not giving equity guidance for 2017 and 2018 but really the two main drivers continue to be our CapEx and our unrecovered costs. Those unrecovered costs will reduce significantly in 2017. And with the exception of Butte fire which as I’ve mentioned we plan to seek recovery through insurance. We’ll get back to a level of acquisitions that are really driven largely by our CapEx program.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you and just if may on the quarter, you have this $0.08 of miscellaneous inside it’s quite a big number any insight as to how some of that is likely to continue through the rest of the year guidance assuming some of it is not going to happen again but what’s in behind that?
Jason Wells:
Sure. Sure. As usual what I would say miscellaneous includes a number of small items. Some of them are timing related, some are not. But I think what’s really important to emphasize though is we’re reaffirming our annual guidance from earnings from operations this year. So I think that is really our focus.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. I’ll leave it there. Thank you guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Arnold. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Jason, want to focus a little bit on cash. You’re talking about the revenue recognition for the delayed GT&S rate case. But can you talk about when you get the cash them in your have a whole year of a revenue increase in 2015 and seven months of that revenue increase in 2016, where not only do you not recognized it from an earnings perspective you’ve not gotten – you haven’t gotten the cash. Can you talk about when you’ll get the cash for that, for that period. Do you collect it over a 12 month, 24 month, 36 month and can you put some numbers around that just to quantify how much cash that is that you’ve not collected to date but you anticipate collecting once everything gets finalized?
Jason Wells:
Sure. So we have not collected roughly 19 months worth of incremental revenues. So that’s all of 2015, and then our 2016 revenues through July. The phase 1 decision allows us to start billing customers in August 1 at that new revenue requirement so we’ll start collecting those incremental revenues here in August, and there will be a 36 month amortization period starting in August, and so that will be the period of time in which we recover those incremental revenues. So it really is just a timing item between when we recognize, when we’re able to recognize these revenues and when we collect them the amortization period.
Michael Lapides:
And how much is that from a cash perspective the amount that is being amortized over 36 months?
Jason Wells:
Roughly in a phase 1 decision, the annual revenue requirement increase was about $500 million, on a full year basis. So about $750 million in total. I will say though that that’s the preliminary authorized revenue requirement, because it can be modified in the phase 2 decision as the commission looks at how to allocate the San Bruno penalty.
Michael Lapides:
So you’ve got – ex that phase 2 decision you got $750 million, or roughly $250 million year from the cash flow perspective, to help make up for – to help recapture some of that revenue just due to the delay in the case.
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. Yes.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. That on the core California GRC and obviously lots of dockets in California not just yours but other utilities as well have faced delays as well. When that rate case gets implemented how should we think about the cash flow that you would get just due to the timing delay?
Jason Wells:
Yes. I guess one of the issues will depend upon what happens with the settlement discussions, and I will ask Steve Malnight to comment on that.
Steve Malnight:
Yes, Michael, so I think in terms of the outcome for the case first it would say like Tony mentioned we’ve announced the settlement conference. We’re hopeful that we can resolve that. The current schedule would call for decision in January. As you mentioned, there has been delays in many of the rate cases but at the same time the commission’s already authorized retroactive revenue to be collected if the decision comes late, so we will collect it from January in a similar way to what Jason described. I think that in this case we just had a pretty extreme example in the GT&S case which really was an unusual case. It was extremely complex, and I think we saw much longer delay from the commission. So will see how the GRC plays out.
Michael Lapides:
Got it and if let’s say new rates came into effect in January how much of a delay is that?
Steve Malnight:
That’s a mean the case is for revenues in 2017 so if we got a final decision in January, as soon as we get implemented in rate would just be a few months of delayed revenue.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, okay. Last item just trying to think in this is obviously maybe a little bit more for Tony. How are you thinking about potential investment opportunities outside of the core Pacific Gas & Electric utility and when I say that I mean things like Midstream, things if possible like on the renewable side. We’re just trying to think about once things get a bit more notable at PG&E how to think about what the investment opportunity is for the broader Corporation.
Tony Earley:
Michael, you’re exactly right. This is the time really to start to think about that so as we start to get a number of these proceedings behind us. And we have actually started work on that let me ask Geisha to comment on that on what were doing in transmission, electric transmission and then I’ll come back and comment a little further.
Geisha Williams:
Hi, Michael, this is Geisha. On the electric transmission side, last quarter we announced an alliance with TransCanyon which will give us an opportunity to really compete for transmission projects not just within our own service area but within the broader CAL-ISO system. We think there’s a lot of opportunity associated with transmission projects as we go to a 50% and in our case a 55% RPS level by 2030. So we see a lot of opportunity both within our service area and now that we’ve got the destrobe partnership with TransCanyon actually an alliance with TransCanyon, we see some opportunity for growth there. Of course this will be on the regulated side. If we start looking at the unregulated side I’m going to turn back to either Tony or Jason.
Tony Earley:
As you know California has some fairly stringent requirements around their affiliate rules. And so really want to make sure that their opportunities before you jump in because you have to keep it totally separate from the utility. And we’re looking at that, but as Geisha said there are opportunities within the utility to partner particularly on new technologies. The reality is, that the work we’ve done starting with smart meters and then moving to our automation in the grid, really gives us an opportunity to partner with a lot of these new technology providers. And we think there’s opportunity both in the utility and possibly outside the utility. We’re starting to look at that.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Tony, much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Lapides. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Chris Turnure:
Good morning. Jason, I was wondering if you could just reiterate your comments or give us a little bit more clarity on what changed for the equity issuance this quarter versus last quarter. You mentioned I think that I guess you had not been accounting for the Butte fire insurance proceeds and that was a positive and some of the phase 1 items negatively offset that?
Jason Wells:
That’s right. Yes, good morning, Chris. Thank you for the question. On the first quarter call I’d indicated that we were trending towards the higher end of the range particularly because of the delay in the gas transmission rate case, but what I would say is what really changed between the first quarter and the second quarter is we recognized the Butte fire insurance receivable which reduced the equity needs, but that was offset by the GT&S capital disallowance that I talked about as well as the gas distribution record keeping fine. And so what we really saw a sort of narrowing of our expected equity issuances as to about $800 million and that’s why we remove the range and just reiterated the $800 million target.
Chris Turnure:
Okay. And then just to kind of follow up on an earlier question regarding the $850 million of San Bruno disallowance. Am I correct in kind of thinking about this in 2015 and probably all of 2016 as well that you had spent the cash for and written off around $500 million in capital last year and then again kind of done the same thing this year for about $300 million, but you’ve yet to write off that O&M expense amount or spend the cash for that amount this year, so it’s if things were to change with how phase 2 is being recognized, most of that would already be reflected in your numbers and your cash flow?
Jason Wells:
Yes. From a cash standpoint we’ve spent most of the money on the underlying work. It was about $400 million last year in the capital disallowance, the balance expected this year. And then as I mention you know we’ve already spent the work on the expense programs while at the disallowance the expense we are waiting until we have the actual revenues and so there will be an offset of the incremental revenues that we ultimately recognize.
Chris Turnure:
Okay that’s very helpful thank you. And the only other thing I wanted to ask was a little bit more strategic. Maybe Tony you could comment on your thinking behind giving us payout guidance kind of out to 2019 and a specific number there. Why did you decide to do it now? Was it the GT&S or is it us getting closer to the remedies here with some of the criminal trial elements and the fines?
Tony Earley:
Yes. I think the driving force is we were getting to the point where we had better visibility on the outcome of the various San Bruno proceedings. We also see this strong investment profile going forward to be consistent with California’s clean energy objectives. And so we felt good about that. We also believe that just giving a one-time increase without saying more was not helpful to you as investors, so we thought A, we wanted to give a range and historically have talked about what I’ve done in the past is have a payout range. And we wanted to give you some idea of the trajectory over the next couple of years. This wasn’t a one and done. We want to have increases to get to that 60% payout ratio in 2019
Chris Turnure:
Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Turnure. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta:
Thank you, hi, guys.
Tony Earley:
Good morning.
Jason Wells:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta:
Good morning. Just sticking on the theme of looking past the recent events and more and more to longer-term growth, as you look into 2018, 2019, and you’ve kind of gone through these different changes, how do you see any challenges or constraints on that growth going forward? As in our rates going to be going to put pressure on that growth, or is there any other challenge, or do you see enough investment opportunity without too many constraints are challenges? How do you see that in terms of long-term growth?
Tony Earley:
I’d never say there are no going never going to be no challenges. I think you put your finger on one of the issues. We see plenty of investment opportunity to deal with the clean energy future here in California. We are very focused on what does it do for rates. We’re very pleased that the current GRC that we’re in negotiations around even with our ask and you never get everything you ask for, we were within the target that we set for ourselves as to keep rate increases around the rate of inflation. And that’s going to be our long-term goal. It’s lumpy so you don’t hit it exactly. But we will be focusing on that, and one of the challenges the whole trend of the lower projections for sales, due to energy efficiency, due to rooftop solar, due to the CCAs. So we’re focusing on that trying to become more efficient, but I think it’s all manageable, and we can drive that growth.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Just more specifically on the Butte fire insurance proceeds, you provide the range and you’re saying you can’t be at the low-end of the range just wanted to understand what are the push and pulls? What drives the range in the first place and what are the scenarios under which you end up at the low end of that range.
Jason Wells:
So I’ll first start with the Butte fire costs themselves, because I think that’s where we sort of anchor off of. And as you will recall we took a charge for $350 million in Q1 related to property damage and that represents the low-end of the range. It really represents our estimate of the cost for the structures that were destroyed in the fire. As I mentioned we are trying to gather more information on the higher end of that range which would include the costs for damages for things such as trees, the loss in value of the trees in a fire and we still are working through that. That is really sort of the larger sort of determination of the range for the costs. On the receivable side of things, as I mention we intend to seek the entirety of our costs related to the third-party claims for the Butte fire through insurance. We fully expect that we will seek full recovery of the third-party claims. From a County standpoint, though, we recognize will be considered to be sort of the low-end of that range for that receivable this quarter. And so I do want to emphasize is it really is just the low-end of the range where we are starting the negotiations with insurance carriers, but we fully expect to recover third-party costs through insurance.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, there.
Tony Earley:
Good morning.
Michael Weinstein:
To follow-up in the $850 million San Bruno penalty. If that was allocated 100% to expense, what would be the consequences especially considering the treatment of previously accrued capital write offs?
Jason Wells:
I think really the primary difference would be about an increase in rate base of $50 million. As I mentioned in the script, there is a difference between rate base and capital expenditures rate base includes depreciation and deferred taxes. So the primary difference would be about an increase about a $500 million increase in rate base. I would say the additional earnings from that rate base would offset the lower cash receipts that we would get by applying all of the disallowance to expense, so there would probably be minimal net impact on ongoing needs and so the real primary difference would be a change in rate base.
Michael Weinstein:
Also, just to clarify, when in 2016 do you recognize the 24 months of under collection? Is that all at once when the phase 2 final decision comes out?
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. As soon as we receive a final phase 2 decision we’ll recognize the full ## months of under collected revenues.
Michael Weinstein:
And also another question I had was the insurance recoveries I know you said that your going to be pursuing full recovery. At what point does what’s the timing of that those negotiate just like. When do you think you’ll know when that receipt can be increased?
Jason Wells:
I think this is going to be a lengthy process. Because it is going to be anchored more on the cost. So we’ve only work through really just a handful of claims at this point. It’ll probably take a couple of years to work through the remainder of those claims. As we have better certainty on the claims, we will adjust the costs associated with this. At the same point we’ll be seeking insurance recoveries from our insurers, and so that – the cash receipt from that will come periodically over the next several years.
Michael Weinstein:
I see the costs are also uncertain so this would not – I mean increasing that receivable potentially later does not affect the equity issuance at all?
Jason Wells:
No. Not going forward. It would have a very small impact on needs.
Michael Weinstein:
Got you. And just one final question. Do you have any update on status of efforts to reform the commission in California, just curious?
Steve Malnight:
This is Steve Malnight. I think the governor and the legislature are in active discussions. They’ve put out a proposal that really focuses on increasing transparency and improving some of the governance issues within the commission. We’re observing that and watching that and continue to see how that evolves, but I think it is an active discussion in fact in Sacramento, and it is ongoing.
Michael Weinstein:
Thanks a lot.
Janet Loduca:
Operator, I think we have time for one final question.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Weinstein. Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Macquarie Group. Please proceed.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. I wanted to go through again the 2018 and 2019 rate base projection. I know you are mentioned it earlier in the call, but could you remind me, so which portions of the asset base actually are kept basically stable from the most recent requests especially on the electric transmission side, et cetera? I’m kind of to figure out if there was an upside where would it occur?
Jason Wells:
Okay. I think it’s probably easier to start first with CapEx and those changes. Because the CapEx profile is what really drives rate base, and so the high end of the range for CapEx essentially we have adjusted down slightly the high end of the range in 2016, 2017, and 2018 for the gas transmission and storage rate case, the phase 1 decision we just received. It now reflects what that decision provides. Offsetting that though we increased the range by the transmission our electric transmission rate case that we expect to file tomorrow. That was a small increase in 2017 that we held flat then in 2018 and 2019. The high-end of the range and really then what provides probably the greatest sort of variability to that range relates to the General Rate Case which covers the period 2017 through 2019 that we’re in the process of negotiating. Given those assumptions on CapEx I would say the only other adjustment then in related to rate base was this $700 million in disallowance of the 2011 through 2014 capital spend. We – in the high end of the range starting in 2014, we assume that we would start earning on the remaining $400 million in 2017.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. That’s fine. Thank you. The other question I’m a little bit confused here. So you mentioned that the – you would recognize the penalty for San Bruno the final decision is rendered, that would be excluded from earnings from ongoing operations right? That would be in items impacting comparability?
Jason Wells:
That’s correct. Yes. It would not be reflective of our ongoing, so we’ve included an estimate for that in our items impacting comparability.
Angie Storozynski:
Now I don’t whine you provide any audience for beyond 2016, but would be fair to assume it’s basically just a financial CapEx and dividend requirement?
Jason Wells:
Yes – so the largest drivers are equity really continue to be in our CapEx program and the unrecovered costs. The unrecovered cost really start to resolve themselves in 2017 so I would say 2018 and 2019 really are more reflective of ongoing needs to fund CapEx in our dividend plan assuming no new unrecovered costs.
Janet Loduca:
All right. I’d like to thank everyone for joining us today. And we wish you a safe and happy day. Thanks.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp. Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp. Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel
Analysts:
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC
Operator:
Good morning and welcome to the PG&E Corporation First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. At this time I would like to introduce your host Ms. Janet Loduca of PG&E. Thank you, and enjoy your conference. You may proceed Ms. Loduca.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Jackie, and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us this morning. Before I turn it over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review our quarterly report on Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2015 annual report. With that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, thank you, Janet, and good morning everyone. I've got some opening remarks and then I'll turn it over to Jason to review our financial results for the quarter. We continue to believe that the three key focus areas shown on the slide three are the foundation for long-term operational and financial success. I'll also cover some of our near-term challenges later in my remarks, but I do want to touch on some of the fundamental drivers of growth, first. So let me start with an update on how we're positioning ourselves for a clean energy economy and the growth that it will make possible. As you know California has some of the most ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals in the country and we're helping the state to achieve those goals. First, as we plan for a 50% renewable portfolio standard, we're building additional flexibility into our contracts to effectively respond to changing market conditions. We've also begun our second round of energy storage solicitations, targeting nearly 600 megawatts of storage by 2024 to help manage the intermittency of renewables. In March, we reached a settlement with many of the parties engaged in our electric vehicle charging infrastructure proposal, which is critical to enable the levels of EV adoptions the state is targeting over the next decade. We're hopeful the Commission will approve this settlement later this summer. And finally, as the uses of our energy grid now grow and evolve, we continue to invest in new technologies and equipment to enable distributed energy resources and more actively engage with other stakeholders to shape future policies. Turning to customer expectations, our recent JD Power survey results show that we've made significant progress with our gas and electric business customers, with the largest year-over-year increase in customer satisfaction in almost a decade. These results reflect concerted efforts to improve the customer experience through ongoing safety and reliability investments. The El Niño storms this winter were good news and bad news. On the positive side, given all the precipitation we've had we expect hydro production this year to be closer to normal compared with just 50% of normal last year. However the increased storms also negatively impacted our electric reliability during the quarter. Nevertheless, we continue to show very strong emergency response performance on both the gas and electric sides of the business. And our teams are working to get our reliability back on track for the remainder of the year. We also continue to focus on reducing the number of third-party dig-ins on our gas lines. As you know, third-party dig-ins pose a significant public safety risk and are completely preventable through the free 811 call before you dig service. The significant steps we've taken to raise public awareness on this issue were recently recognized by the Common Ground Alliance and our efforts have resulted in industry-leading performance. In April, we announced that PG&E entered into an agreement with TransCanyon, LLC, a joint venture between subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway Energy and Pinnacle West. The agreement with TransCanyon allows us to jointly pursue competitive electric transmission projects throughout the California ISO footprint. We look forward to leveraging our collective experience and resources to explore future opportunities. Last week, we had a development in the Butte Fire when CAL FIRE issued its investigation report. The CAL FIRE report concluded that the fire was caused by a tree coming into contact with one of our lines, consistent with what had been reported in the press earlier. First, let me say that our thoughts and prayers continue to be with the victims and communities who suffered losses as a result of that fire and all of the devastating fires across California last summer. We also want to thank CAL FIRE and other first responders, including our own, for their heroic efforts in responding to all of those fires. We continue to believe that we have one of the best vegetation management programs in the industry and disagree with the report's conclusion that our practices fell short. To give you a sense of the magnitude of our program, every year our certified arborists and registered professional foresters monitor nearly 50 million trees across our service territory, and we remove more than a million trees each year. We use some of the most sophisticated technology that I've seen in my career for this program. Jason will review the financial impact of the Butte Fire in just a minute. And finally, I want to provide a few regulatory and legal updates. I'll start with the 2015 Gas Transmission and Storage rate case, which I know is top of mind for many of us. Although we had hoped to receive a proposed decision in the first quarter of this year, we're still waiting for that to be issued. As Jason will discuss, our quarterly financial results will continue to be impacted until we receive a final decision. In the 2017 General Rate Case we were really gratified to receive a report from the Safety and Enforcement Division recognizing our risk management practices as industry-leading. The SED report found that PG&E's risk assessment approach provides a greater transparency, and successfully maps risk outcomes to requested expenditures, meeting the Commission's goal of moving safety to a fundamental consideration in the case. The SED report also acknowledged that the value of the third-party certifications – they've acknowledged the value of the third-party certifications we've received in our gas asset management programs. In April, we also received testimony from the other parties in the case, which recommended reductions to our request. Obviously, we disagree with those proposed reductions, and we'll be filing our response later this month. In the gas distribution, record keeping investigation, we received penalty recommendations from both the Safety and Enforcement Division and the City of Carmel. Fundamentally, we do not believe that any of the penalties are warranted in the case. However our response noted that if the CPUC decides to issue a penalty, we believe it should not exceed $33.6 million, and should be applied towards future spending rather than taking the form of a fine. At this point, the record is complete, and we're awaiting a decision from the Commission. I also want to provide a brief update on the criminal case. We continue to believe that the changes do not – the charges do not have any merit. While we have acknowledged that we've made mistakes in the past, we simply haven't seen any evidence to indicate that PG&E employees knowingly and willfully violated the law. We're anxious to get the case underway, but just two weeks before the trial was scheduled to begin, the government finally provided us with more than 100,000 pages of documents that we've been requesting for more than a year. To ensure we could thoroughly review all of this material, we were compelled to ask the court for a delay. We're scheduled to go back before the court tomorrow to provide an update on our review of the documents and we hope to get a reasonable new trial date at that time. So to sum things up, while we continue to work through some of the outstanding regulatory and legal issues, we are well-positioned for growth, as we support California's clean energy future. So with that, I'll hand it over to Jason to review the financials.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin by covering the first quarter results and then quickly review the 2016 outlook. Slide five shows our results for the first quarter. Earnings from operations came in at $0.82. GAAP earnings, including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. The pre-tax numbers for the items impacting comparability are at the bottom of the page. Pipeline related expenses came in at $22 million pre-tax in Q1. Our legal and regulatory related expenses were $17 million pre-tax for the quarter. And fines and penalties were $87 million pre-tax. As a reminder, this amount represents our estimate of the disallowed capital work, coming out of the final San Bruno penalty decision, which we are accruing as we complete the work. Our results for the first quarter, include a new item impacting comparability for costs related to the Butte Fire. Based on the CAL FIRE report, we've taken a charge for $381 million pre-tax for the first quarter. As background, California has a theory of inverse condemnation, under which utilities may be liable for property damages without a finding of negligence when a power line is involved in a fire. The charge we've taken includes $350 million to reflect the low-end of a range for property damage and an additional $31 million for other costs related to the fire. At this point, we are not able to estimate the upper end of the range. We do carry liability insurance for claims like these, so we would expect to be able to recover a significant portion of those costs through insurance in the future. And we would show the insurance recoveries, as an offsetting positive item impacting comparability, in the future periods, as they are recorded. Finally, it is important to note that the $381 million does not include an accrual for any fire suppression or personal injury damages, both of which would require a showing of negligence. Slide six shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison from earnings from operations of $0.87 in Q1 last year and $0.82 in Q1 this year. The largest item, relates to the timing of taxes during the quarter, which was $0.08 negative. GAAP accounting requires us to smooth the impact of taxes across the quarters, even as income fluctuates. This is purely a timing item that will reverse by year-end. In the first quarter of 2015, we completed our disposition of the SolarCity shares. We did not have that item this quarter, resulting in $0.03 negative. And issuing additional shares, also resulted in $0.03 negative. These negative drivers were partially offset by growth in rate-based earnings which was $0.05 positive for the quarter. This item reflects assets covered by our General Rate Case and our electric transmission TO rate case. It does not include the Gas Transmission rate case since we do not yet have a decision. At this point, we would not expect a final decision in the first phase of the case until at least mid-year. So while the timing should not affect our annual earnings from operations in 2016, it will continue to have an impact on our cash flows in quarterly results as you saw last year. And finally, we had $0.04 of smaller positive miscellaneous items that impacted the quarter. Today, we are reaffirming our guidance for earnings from operations of $3.65 per share to $3.85 per share, and that is shown on slide seven. The underlying assumptions for earnings from operations remain the same as what we provided last quarter, so I'll just quickly cover the highlights. On slide eight, we continue to assume capital expenditures of roughly $5.6 billion, and a weighted average authorized rate base of about $32.6 billion for the year. On the bottom right, I want to reiterate a key assumption to our guidance, which is that we receive a reasonable outcome in the Gas Transmission rate case this year. Turning to slide nine, the guidance for the items impacting comparability has been updated to include the Butte Fire related costs. The other items impacting comparability are unchanged from last quarter. Our guidance for the year for the Butte Fire related cost reflects the Q1 charge of $381 million, which is the low end of the range for property damages, plus some other fire related costs. As I mentioned, we are not able to estimate the high end of the range at this time. As shown at the bottom of the slide, the current range for items impacting comparability in 2016 is right about $1 billion. And as a reminder, this range excludes any potential future fines or penalties beyond our estimates of the disallowed capital and expense costs associated with the San Bruno Penalty. On slide 10, we continue to assume equity issuance of $600 million to $800 million in 2016. During the first quarter, we issued about $150 million in equity through our internal and dribble programs. As a reminder the range reflects a number of assumptions including the timing and the amount of revenues we receive in the Gas Transmission rate case. The charge for the Butte fire results in roughly $100 million in new equity needs this year, which puts us towards the high end of our range. And finally, on slides 11 and 12, we are reaffirming the CapEx and rate base ranges through 2019. So to conclude, we continue to have a strong growth profile supported by California's long term policy objectives. We are confident in our ability to execute on our operational plans as we continue to work through outstanding regulatory and legal issues. With that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
Certainly Our first question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Stephen.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
I wanted to dig into the status of the efforts underway to create and integrate the Western grid. We obviously follow with interest your joint venture, but more broadly, it seems like there's a lot underway in terms of trying to move towards that overall goal and we've been trying to follow the procedural steps there. But at a high level, can you give us a sense of where that's headed, is there any contentious issues or what any sticking points in terms of trying to move forward towards the concept of a more integrated Western grid?
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Stephen. This is Geisha Williams. We are very supportive of the energy imbalance market and also CAISO's efforts to really have a more regional larger footprint. There is a lot of discussion going on, good progress has been made already with the EIM or the energy imbalance market and a lot of discussions are occurring right now in terms of looking at beyond the energy imbalance market, what it would take actually have a broader market, a broader area. We support it for lots of reasons, not the least of which is we believe that it will enable CAISO to really dispatch lower cost renewables, really take advantage of the load diversity and supply diversity that really is in existence in the western area. So we're optimistic and very supportive of their efforts.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Great. And can you share any particular elements of push back or any sort of – it seems like there are a number of benefits to having a more integrated grid. Are there any sort of negatives or issues that have been raised that, that could potentially be sticking points?
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
I think that there could be – one of the issues is, who governs this broad regional area. Right now, the CAISO is really focused on California. So the membership of the board is are Californians appointed by the Governor of California. As we look at a broader market, it will be interesting to see what the makeup of that board would be, what the representation will be from other states and what the implications might therefore be on California. One of the things that will create a bit of a sticking point will be that the rates of California will not be increased, as a result of a broader market. So these are going to be some of the issues that are going to have to be resolved.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. And if I could shift gears quickly to energy storage. You've taken a lot of proactive steps in building that out. The one sort of item of feedback we get is that, obviously as costs drop, volumes in terms of installation could go up. At a high level, could you speak to – so what you think will be necessary to have an even broader deployment of storage, are there sort of mile post levels in terms of overall costs that you would see or is this more just a gradual adoption kind of a plan in the state?
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
Well. California again is leading in this area and I think of course you know about the RFO on storage, the storage mandate that we have in place where PG&E will be putting in place 580 megawatts of storage between now and 2024. We had our first solicitation in December of 2014. We announced who the winners of that solicitation were. This year and now we're awaiting approval. We're going to have yet another solicitation at the end of this year for an additional 120 megawatts. So we're seeing great participation from the storage market, which is very – it's very good news. We think that it's an emerging technology, a lot of investment from many, many different companies around the world and we're hopeful that just as we saw declining prices on distributed generation or solar panels that we will similarly see improved costs if you will on the storage side. But it's early days and I think the market is still evolving and we're watching it and hopeful that again as more and more storage comes online that in fact we will see better pricing in the future.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. And if you did see significant cost reductions in storage, could there be a step change upward in terms of the amount of storage that you would ideally want to employ?
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
Well we believe storage is really a critical part of integrating renewables. So we are very active in the market looking at our own ownership as well as contracting with third-parties. But again, it depends on the economics, it depends on what types of changes we see in the future. Again we're hopeful, and are always in discussions with folks about what could potentially work. But again it's like looking in the crystal ball. I really can't – I can't really speculate on what prices might be and what our actions might be in relation to those prices.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Byrd. Our next question comes from Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning Greg.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
I know you've articulated that it's your aspiration to take some action on the dividend and give investors, a sort of a vision for what you see as the long-term, sort of total return profile for the investment after we get through these last few milestones. Is it fair for me, or am I putting words in your mouth to say that the GT&S case, and the criminal proceeding are sort of the last two major issues we need to resolve before you feel comfortable articulating that outlook?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Greg, first of all, we have made good progress internally on our discussions about the dividend. I feel good about it. Recall at the last quarterly earnings report, I said it's my objective to be able to publicly state our policy this year. Obviously we've got to be sensitive to all the other things that are going on. So I wouldn't call the things you mentioned as things that have to get behind us. But they have to be in the right place in order to make a decision, I mean I would tell you the Butte fire, we're just in the early stages of analyzing what the impacts are and we've got to just figure that out. I don't see that it will in the long run impact our ability at all for a dividend, but you just have to be sensitive. You've got to make sure, you've got all those things lined up when you make that announcement.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thanks. And on the Butte fire, I know you've increased your assumed equity issuance needs within the guidance range of course as a function of that. But if you ultimately are covered by your insurance policies, is it actually necessary to equitize those, really necessary to equitize those costs.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hi, Greg. It's Jason Wells. No, over the long-term, it wouldn't be. But there may be a timing difference between the recognition for the costs associated with the Butte fire and the receipt of the insurance proceeds. So over the long term, no, there would not be the need to equitize those amounts, but there may be short-term financing need.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Gordon. Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Just a follow up on that topic. So would it be fair to say that it's still, dividends is still something that could be addressed in 2016?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That's my goal.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then a question on the criminal case, you mentioned the document dump and that you'll be kind of responding tomorrow, I think to the court. Just curious if you could, maybe we can get this tomorrow, but were there a lot of documents in there that kind of would you say better support your case, and obviously better kind of – it sounds like it supports your comment that you already made that there is no evidence of any purposeful negligence.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Just a couple of comments. One, the fact we have 100,000 pages of documents dumped on us two weeks before the trial is quite remarkable. The hearing tomorrow is just to report on going through those documents. You have to go through them – someone's got to read all the documents. They are not in a – they weren't given to us in a form that you could do any automated reading of them. So somebody has got to put eyeballs on them. It takes a while to do that. And yes, we are finding documents that are very helpful to our case.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then I think just on the Butte Fire issue. So could you may be just go through once again the different areas of potential exposures that we need to think about. You mentioned you've taken this reserve for property damage. But then I guess what are the other areas that are not estimable that you haven't reserved and how we should think about those.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, this is Jason. We're still in the early stages of discovery and getting more information on the specific claims. With respect to the property damage though, I would say we have a good handle on the damages related to structures. But some of the other components are more complicated including damages to trees. As you can imagine, there are a lot of variables that go in to quantifying damages related to tree loss, including the number of trees that were burned over the 70,000 acres, the species and size of those trees, the pre-fire health of the trees, the post-fire tree value among other factors. And so we're working through these issues and we'll obviously provide an updated estimate once we have better information and are able to access those impacted parties. So that's what I would focus on from a property damage standpoint.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Hate to beat the dead horse but on the wildfire issue, you mentioned the $350 million was the low end, what's the high end?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We don't have a high end of the range at this point. We're still – it's – we're really in the early stages. So we're trying to gather as much information as we can on the specific claims, and we'll obviously update that range when we have better information.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. So it's not a – not really a range if there's not a high end. I'm just trying to think about, is there something we're going to be talking about every quarter, where the number keeps creeping up or is this, hey, we've kind of done the bulk of the work, we're 90% of the way there and maybe there is a little bit more coming, but it's not a material bit more.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I think we're really in the early stage. As I mentioned before, I think we have a really good handle on the damages related to structures. There is still a lot more work that we need to do particularly related to the damages to trees. And so we're working through that as quickly as possible.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And Tony, as you get through the GT&S case, as you get through the final San Bruno related stuff, how are you thinking longer-term, meaning 2017 and beyond, about the ability to earn the authorized and some of the tailwinds or headwinds that could actually enable you to do so, or keep you from doing so?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, obviously, that's our objective is to earn our allowed return going forward. And we think we've done a lot of work, both internally on managing our cost. We've got a big push on affordability here. Obviously, we're going to invest what we think we need to invest in the system and I think given the approach in rate cases, we're very optimistic that the showings we've made in our rate cases will support getting a level of revenues, that means that we will have money to continue to make those investments. So there're obviously going to be things that come up, but I think, we're positioning ourselves well for the future.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And when you think about the main GRC, the generation and distribution one, how are you thinking about the timeline for that? I know what the stated timeline is. Unfortunately California hasn't stuck to a stated timeline on a rate case for anybody in the state for a number of years and how any significant delays could potentially impact the balance sheet or cash flows?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, just in general, you're right. It's not just us. All of the cases have been delayed recently. We've had discussions about that. That's not helping California's image, I mean from a regulatory standpoint we've got lots of good policies in place. But the policies aren't effective unless you get the decisions based on them. That said, I really do think this case is different. I mentioned some other things that SED said about our filing. And also when you look at the bid-ask range, it's not as big as it's been in the past. And so we hope this can be moved along faster than in the past. And maybe I'll let Steve Malnight comment.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
Yeah, this is Steve. Thank you, Tony. I do think a couple of things. I agree with Tony. The case so far is moving along on schedule. I think we're optimistic about the case. The challenges do tend to come later in terms of timing. However, having said that, in this case we also did already receive the authorization to ensure that if the case is delayed, the revenues would be retroactive to the beginning of 2017, which is an important milestone that the Commission has regularly done in many of these cases. So the timing impact is somewhat muted because of that benefit.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Lapides. Our next question comes from Chris Turnure with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning guys. I know we've gone over this on past calls, but I wanted to just discuss the rate base and CapEx guidance for both this year and the next couple of years. Is there a chance that there could be lower CapEx spend than the bottom end of the range, if all of your rate case decisions kind of come out at the lowest, I guess potential scenario that you guys have been anticipating.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I'd say it's really, really early to kind of presuppose any decision on this process. Just as a reminder, our CapEx and rate base ranges, what we provided here is essentially in the outer years, we stayed flat to what we were spending in 2015, which I think is a reasonable assumption for the low-end of the range. And then the upper-end of the range reflects what we currently filed in our rate cases and where there's a period not covered by the rate case, we hold that upper range flat with the last rate case filing. So I do think it represents a reasonable range for CapEx and rate base over the next several years.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And I guess, the other thing that I would add. Some of the recommendations of the other parties while they recommended reductions in our expenses largely supported the capital proposals.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then just to go back to the fire. Maybe you could give us a bit of historical context here and remind us of your last kind of major fire where you had a liability there, and how things kind of played out in terms of timing, the amount of liability and the insurance proceeds. And then am I to understand this, the special legal clause in the State of California as basically putting any utility on the hook to pay for trees and other property damage even if they are not negligent there. It seems kind of a lot there and obviously you have insurance proceeds. Do those costs of insurance and the premiums there get passed through to rate payers ultimately?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
So, this is Hyun Park, General Counsel. So you had a number of questions there. So I'll try to answer what I can recall. The first question was about our prior experience with fires. And yeah, we've had fires in the past, and for example in 2013, we settled two fires; 2004 Power Fire and 2008 Whiskey fire and it cost us $50.5 million to settle those fire cases. In 2012, we spent approximately $30 million settling the 2004 Fred's and Sims Fires and in 2009, we spent approximately $15 million to settle the 1999 Pendola Fire. So those are the recent experiences with the fire cases. And you asked a question I think about inverse condemnation. And basically, inverse condemnation is a doctrine that is based on the California Constitution. It's based on the Takings Clause of the California Constitution. And courts basically held that inverse condemnation maybe found when three elements are satisfied. First, there has to be injury to private property. And second, the property damage was substantially caused. So there has to be a substantial causation and it does not matter whether there is fault or not. And thirdly, the damage had to be caused by a public improvement operating as deliberately designed, constructed or maintained. So that's the language from the case law. And inverse condemnation has been applied to utility fire cases, where fires were caused by power lines, and court cases that basically describe the underlying purpose of this doctrine is intending to distribute throughout the community, any loss inflicted upon an individual property owner by public improvement. And inverse condemnation allows recovery for property damage, prejudgment interest and attorney's fees.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks. And I think you had one question about recoverability of our insurance costs. They are a component of our rate cases. So we do file and seek recovery for the costs of our various insurance programs.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you Mr. Turnure. Our next question comes from Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Good morning. I just want to follow up on the previous questions. What's the path from here to reconcile the Butte fire. Do we – you guys go through the paperwork. You come up with a new target. Does it go to a court, does it go to District Court or where does it get resolved?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So to-date we have 32 complaints involving approximately 1,300 plaintiffs and their property insurers. So these cases have been coordinated in Sacramento Superior Court and of course it's possible that more cases will be filed. And right now, what's happening is the plaintiffs are starting to present to the utility claims seeking early resolution of the so-called preference cases and these are the cases that involve plaintiffs who either due to their age or physical condition are not able to wait for the full trial process. So we're starting to engage in discussions with the plaintiff's counsel about that these preference cases. And we have a Case Management Conference in Sacramento Superior Court on May 24.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
When you went to the previous question, it seemed that from fires to settlement, we were looking at anywhere from eight years to 10 years, is that accurate or did I not hear it correctly?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
I don't recall, saying anything about eight years to 10 years, but....
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
When you mentioned the fires, there were 2004 fires that were settled in the last couple of eyars.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Is that accurate?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So some of these settlements do to take a while. Yeah.
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
I think the components of the settlements that normally takes the longest is the actual CAL FIRE or U.S. Forestry Service component where they are asking or claiming fire suppressions costs and it's that element that likely often takes a long time.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. And just lastly, Jason, just trying to sure I heard correctly, the fine recommended by CAL FIRE was $90 million but that's not included in the company's low end of the range right now, is that correct?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So, couple of things on that. The first is the $90 million that CAL FIRE mentioned in its report was not a fine. It was essentially, they're seeking recovery for their cost to respond to the fire. In order for us to be viable for those fire suppression costs that were incurred by CAL FIRE, we'd have to be found liable for negligence and we just don't see, see that as based on what we understand today that we don't see the possibility being found liable for negligence as Geisha mentioned and as Tony mentioned. We have an industry-leading veg management program. And so at this point, we have not accrued anything for those fire suppression costs.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Crowdell. Our next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I wanted to follow up on Steve's question regarding the criminal case. There has been some discussion about some of the former executives getting granted immunity. And I don't believe what that actually means or practically, or what does that mean, how should we think about that in terms of – what are the ramifications of that, I just don't understand it that well, do you follow what I'm saying?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So this is Hyun Park, again. So at the earlier stages of the government's investigation of this case, the government insisted that certain of our current or former employee witnesses be represented by a separate counsel, other than the company counsel and in situations like the one we're in, getting immunity by certain witnesses is actually fairly common and I don't think one should read too much into that. As part of our cooperation with the government, we agreed to have some of our employee witnesses be represented by separate counsel. And these witnesses' lawyers negotiated an immunity, and it's fairly routine. And just being granted immunity does not mean that they are going to testify for or against anybody. I mean the bottom-line is that they all have to be sworn in to tell the truth.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
This is Tony, I might add that in the civil cases, because remember we have the investigation into San Bruno. But in the civil cases most of these employees were deposed. So we have a pretty good idea of what they're going to say and that's why we continue to believe that there is no basis for saying that anyone knowingly and willfully violated the law.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So it's fairly routine. I guess just lawyers probably protecting their clients, would it be safe to say in terms of any potential charges being brought up. Just to make them more comfortable in terms of what they are able to discuss. Is that how we should think about what it sort of procedurally mean as opposed to them necessarily cooperating with the government to...
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah, as I said, I just don't think you can read too much into this, and it's pretty standard practice on the part of a defense counsel to try to negotiate an immunity for their clients.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Great. And the immunity is only for the issues that are involved in this case, is that correct? You know that or...
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
I don't. I haven't seen these immunity agreements. So I really can't speak to that directly.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, fair enough. The rest of my questions have been answered. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Patterson. Our next question comes from Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hi guys. So my question firstly is on the growth side, the 5% to 7% growth. I know there are utilities who worry about retail rates and is that a concern for you guys at all as in consistently growing at that level, do you see ever rate pressure coming that may restrict or limit the growth going forward?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'll start off, this is Tony. Obviously, affordability is one of the things that we focus on here. One of the – the good news things here in California is well, some people say your rates are high. Actually the total customer bill is below the national average. And so while we're always sensitive, we still think that our products are overall affordable for the customer. Now one of California's challenges is in the rate structure that's been in place for a long time really needs to be reformed, because there are some groups of customers that are paying far more than they should and others probably paying less, and we've made some progress in improving that. We need to continue to make further progress on it.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Great. Thanks. And then, secondly just quickly on M&A and strategic direction both on the buy and sell side. Is there any view from your perspective on how you look at the landscape today given the consolidation that's happened in the space. How are you looking at the strategic path going forward, I guess?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So obviously, we never comment on specifics of M&A. But just stepping back from an industry standpoint, I believe we'll continue to see a fairly slow consolidation of the industry. It kind of goes in fits and starts. One of the interesting things is the consolidations – recently, the big consolidations have been creating combination companies. So gas and electric combined. Of course we're already there. We're a combination company. Also California is different, in many parts of the country, gas is viewed as the transition fuel from an environmental standpoint replacing coal. We have no coal on our system in California. So it's – the long-term issues are a little bit different here in California.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Mehta. Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So a lot's been asked and answered already, but just following up here. First, just on the equity side of the equation. Obviously, Butte fire is not necessarily explicitly reflected. How do you think about equity needs 2016 and more importantly onwards, right, but you've laid out rate base, you've laid out CapEx, is there any good way to think about that generically?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. What I continue to focus on is sort of the two big drivers of our capital needs, which are our CapEx program and our unrecovered costs. For our CapEx guidance, we've provided a range that relates to our pending rate cases. I think there you have to make an assumption what are we going to receive in those rate cases and what our CapEx will be to inform equity needs related to CapEx. On the other side of unrecovered costs, what I'll say is we expect to fully fund the San Bruno penalty in 2016. So that will go away after 2016 as a driver of equity needs. We also have our Right of Way program in our gas transmission business, which will continue through 2017. And as a quick reminder, that was a $500 million program to be completed over five years ending in 2017. So that will continue into 2017. And then you'll have to make your assumptions around any additional unrecovered costs, but absent any new items, unrecovered costs should start to decrease in 2017 and 2018 and be much less of a driver of the ongoing equity needs for the business.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Okay. And then just continuing there. Since you left it off at the GT&S. So maybe curious, can you elaborate a little bit more, I know it's been out there for a bit, what the rate impacts are by customer class and perhaps if you can comment to what extent is that any potential limiting factor and getting resolution here versus just the conventional lag that we've seen before the CPUC and getting cases processed.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
Hi, this is Steve Malnight. Well, I think that obviously this is a big case and it's been going on for some time. The rate impacts when you look at our original proposal, the rate impacts would be a monthly increase of about $5 a month or 12% for our customers. That is an issue. I think that is in consideration and was a part of the discussion throughout this case, but more so it's really about what's the right work that needs to be done in the system and the right cost to do that. And I think in this case we've seen a substantial record built on why we believe that the work we proposed is the right work to get done. So, we'll just have to see how that comes out in the proposed decision.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And last quick one, TransCanyon, why the latest partnership, why now perhaps if I would ask after years of success alone?
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Julien, this is Geisha. So, we've been very successful within California in terms of competitive projects. But as we look at a broader market, we've talked about it earlier, broader CAISO footprint. And we think an alliance agreement with TransCanyon makes sense. We think we have strengths. They have strengths. And together, we can even be more competitive and successful.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Smith. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you, for attending the PG&E Corporation's first quarter 2016 earnings conference call. This now concludes the conference. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp. Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp. Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel
Analysts:
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker) Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP
Operator:
Good afternoon and welcome to the PG&E 2015 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of our call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. At this time, I'd like to turn over to our host Janet Loduca. Thank you, and enjoy your conference. You may proceed.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Matt and thanks to those of you on the phone for joining us. Before I turn it over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to view the 2015 annual report that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of the risk factors that appears there. With that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, thank you, Janet. Hello everyone, thanks for joining us today. 2015 was a really strong year for us both operationally and financially. We continue to improve the safety and reliability of our gas and electric systems, while delivering really solid financial results. Our earnings from operations in 2015 were $3.12 a share, which is slightly ahead of our guidance range. So I'm going to spend a few minutes reviewing the operational and regulatory progress we've made, and then I'm going to turn it over to Jason Wells to review our financial results in more detail. We continue to believe that focusing on three key areas, positioning the company for a clean energy economy, delivering on customer expectations and addressing outstanding issues will provide the foundation for operational and financial success. So let me start with how we're positioning the company for a clean energy economy. PG&E continues to be a recognized leader in supporting the nation's goals around clean energy. In December several PG&E team members and I joined Governor Brown for the Global Climate Summit in Paris. We participated in a number of events and panels where we shared the actions PG&E and California are taking to reduce carbon emissions, advance clean energy technologies and spur economic growth. We were very proud to represent the California utility perspective at such a significant global forum. In 2015, nearly 30% of PG&E's electric deliveries came from qualifying renewable resources, and even more meaningfully nearly 60% of the energy that we delivered was carbon free. We know that as our energy mix continues to evolve, so do the needs of our electric grid. To deliver on California's low carbon future, we need to continue investing in a smarter, more resilient grid, and we need to ensure that rate structures are keeping up with these changes. Although, we didn't make as much progress on rate reform last year as we would have liked, the Commission has started to address the issues through flattening our residential tiers and moving towards mandatory time-of-use rates, and they've committed to review the rate structure again in 2019. We look forward to continuing to work with all the parties to develop the appropriate rate structure to meet our customers' changing needs. Turning to customer expectations, on the electric side of the business, last year we delivered a seventh straight year of improved electric reliability. Our outage duration and frequency are now in the second quartile for the industry. We also delivered first quartile performance in both our 911 Emergency Response and our wire down metrics. On the gas side of the business, we delivered top decile emergency response performance and broke ground on a new state-of-the-art gas training facility which we expect to open in 2017. We're also the first company in the United States to be certified in meeting the American Petroleum Institute's Recommended Practice 1173, which is a new standard related to pipeline safety and safety culture. We now have three external certifications recognizing the quality of our gas asset management and safety culture programs. We also continue to make progress towards resolving our outstanding issues. I'm pleased to report that we've closed out another one of the NTSB's recommendations by installing more than 200 automated and remote shut-off valves across our gas transmission system, and we're well on the way to completing the final recommendation to strength test nearly 1,000 miles of transmission pipe. In an important step forward, the Commission has officially closed out the San Bruno investigation. We've also completed hearings in the gas distribution record-keeping investigation, and we look forward to resolution of that case this year. In the criminal proceeding, we received some positive rulings from the court late last year that narrowed the scope of the case. Most significantly, the court dismissed the government's Alternative Fines Act claim based on alleged losses. The court is still considering whether to allow the government to proceed with an Alternative Fines Act claim based on alleged gains. That determination will be made after the first phase of the trial where the government will have to prove that PG&E employees knowingly and willfully violated the law. We continue to believe that the evidence just does not support the charges. So to sum up, we had a really strong year in 2015 and we're committed to making additional progress in 2016. Before I turn it over to Jason, I want to reconfirm that we expect to address the dividend in 2016. I'm committed to doing that this year, although I don't have any specifics on timing for you yet. I'm excited to continue to work with Jason in his new role as CFO. He has been working closely with our finance and operational teams for a number of years, so he knows the company extremely well, and he provides a wealth of experience and will be instrumental in helping us move forward. So Jason, welcome and let me hand it over to you to discuss our financials.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thank you Tony, and hello everyone. I've enjoyed meeting many of you already, and I look forward to meeting more of you this spring. I'll begin my remarks today by going through our Q4 and full year 2015 result, and then I'll provide some insights regarding our 2016 outlook. Slide five shows our 2015 results for Q4 and the full-year. We had solid results in 2015 coming in slightly above our guidance range for the year, due to some smaller positive miscellaneous items. Earnings from operations came in at $0.50 for the quarter and $3.12 for the year. GAAP earnings, including the items impacting comparability are also shown here. All items impacting comparability came in within our guidance ranges. Pipeline-related expenses came in at $39 million pre-tax for the quarter, and $103 million pre-tax for the year. Our legal and regulatory-related expenses were $14 million pre-tax for the quarter, and $58 million pre-tax for the year. Fines and penalties were $137 million pre-tax for the quarter, and $907 million pre-tax for the year. The Q4 amount represents our estimate of the disallowed capital work coming out of the final San Bruno Penalty Decision, which we are accruing as we complete that work. Finally, our annual results show insurance recoveries of $49 million pre-tax. As we mentioned last quarter, we have now resolved all insurance claims related to San Bruno recovering a total of $515 million. Slide six shows our quarter-over-quarter comparison from earnings from operations of $0.53 in Q4 last year and $0.50 in Q4 this year. You've seen most of these drivers in previous quarters, so I'll cover them briefly. The biggest item, a decrease of $0.10 is associated with lower cost recovery in 2015 because we did not receive a decision in the Gas Transmission rate case during the year. So we incurred those expenses, but did not collect the associated revenues. Next, a nuclear refueling outage in the fourth quarter drove a $0.05 decrease over the same period last year. There was a penny for regulatory and legal matters, and $0.02 negative resulting from additional shares quarter-over-quarter. These negative drivers were partially offset by three positive items; first, we had $0.05 of growth in rate base earnings; second, timing of taxes was also a small positive for the quarter, and for the full year as we've said, this item nets to zero; and finally, we had $0.09 of smaller miscellaneous items. For the full-year this line netted to $0.02 positive. More detail around the annual results is available in the appendix of today's slide deck. Moving to slide seven. Today, we're introducing guidance for 2016, earnings from operations of $3.65 to $3.85 per share. We're also providing ranges for items impacting comparability, which I'll come back to in a minute. First, I want to cover the assumptions behind the guidance on slide eight. Starting in the upper left corner, you'll see we are assuming capital expenditures of roughly $5.6 billion this year. The breakdown by line of business is also included. Importantly, the gas transmission line assumes a range of $500 million to $700 million for the year, and as you know, we're still waiting on a proposed decision in that rate case. This range includes about $300 million of safety related capital expenditures that we estimate will be disallowed as part of the CPUC's Penalty Decision last year. In the upper right of the slide, you'll see that our estimate of weighted average authorized rate base is about $32.6 billion for the year. Both the CapEx and rate base assumptions are consistent with ranges we've previously provided. In the lower left, you'll see that we continue to assume a CPUC authorized equity ratio of 52%, and a return on equity of 10.4%, which we now have certainty on through 2017. Finally, at the bottom right, we list some other factors we believe will affect 2016 earnings from operations. Our objective is to earn the authorized return on rate base for the enterprise as a whole, plus the net impact of the factors listed here. Many of these probably look familiar to you from 2015, so I'll cover them briefly. In terms of the Gas Transmission rate case, the first bullet highlights a key assumption underlining our guidance, which is that we will receive a reasonable outcome in the case this year. The second bullet is a reminder that we haven't sought cost recovery for certain corrosion control and strength testing work in the Gas Transmission rate case. We previously indicated these operating expenses should average a total of roughly $50 million annually over the three-year rate case period, although the amount may vary year-to-year. Next is the tax benefits associated with the repairs deduction. The net impact of this continues to be roughly $0.25 per share in 2016. The last item is incentive revenues for things like our customer energy efficiency programs. Finally, we continue to expect earnings on construction work in progress to be roughly offset by our below the line costs, which include advertising, charitable contributions, some environmental costs and other items. One more point before I move to the next slide. Since we do not yet have a proposed decision in the Gas Transmission rate case, we do not expect a final decision until at least the second quarter. So while the timing should not affect our annual earnings from operations in 2016, it will continue to have an impact on our cash flows and quarterly results as you saw last year. In 2015, that impact was roughly $0.60. Now, turning to slide nine, the guidance for the items impacting comparability is $565 million to $665 million pre-tax. You can see that most of these categories are consistent with last year, pipeline-related expenses, legal and regulatory related expenses, and fines and penalties. We will also have a new positive category relating to the 2015 portion of revenues from the Gas Transmission rate case. We expect a final decision in the case this year, with revenues retroactive to January 2015. Since we'll be booking two year's worth of revenues in 2016, we'll pull out the 2015 portion as an item impacting comparability once we get that final decision. The estimated range for pipeline-related expenses is $100 million to $150 million pre-tax. This component relates to clearing our pipeline rights of way. We are entering the fourth year of that program, which we've estimated will not exceed $500 million from its start in 2013 through its planned completion in 2017. The second component is legal and regulatory related expenses, which we estimate to be between $25 million and $75 million pre-tax for the year. This component represents costs incurred in connection with enforcement, regulatory and litigation activities regarding natural gas matters and regulatory communications. The third component is potential fines and penalties, again related to natural gas matters or regulatory communications. As you can see in the table at the bottom of the page, our 2016 guidance of $440 million pre-tax for fines and penalties reflects our estimate of the remaining portion of the $850 million of safety related spending that the Commission disallowed as part of the San Bruno Penalty Decision last year. This range does not include any other potential fines or penalties. And last, we have the new positive item for 2015 Gas Transmission revenues, which we'll update after we receive a decision in that case. Turning to slide 10. We assume equity issuance of $600 million to $800 million in 2016. That compares to equity issuance last year of right about $800 million. The 2016 range reflects a number of assumptions, including the timing and amount of revenues we will receive in the Gas Transmission rate case. Moving to slides 11 and 12, we're providing updated CapEx and rate base ranges through 2019. First on slide 11, as I mentioned earlier, we're estimating about $5.6 billion in CapEx in 2016. This is a little higher than the $5.4 billion we spent in 2015. As you'll recall, we had to defer some of our planned work last year due to wildfire response. For 2017 through 2019, the $6.5 billion high-end of the range is the same as you saw last quarter. As a reminder, the high-end reflects the full request in our pending rate cases, which are the 2017 through 2019 General Rate Case. The 2015 through 2017 Gas Transmission rate case and the electric transmission TO17 rate case. And for the outer years of the gas and electric transmission rate cases where we have not yet filed a request, we've kept the high end of the range flat with our current request. At the low end of the range, we simply assume that capital expenditures through 2019 stay flat with 2015 spending of $5.4 billion. Slide 12 shows our estimated rate base levels from 2016 through 2019. Next week, we will formally update our 2017 General Rate Case forecast to reflect the impact of the recent five-year extension of bonus appreciation. The ranges shown here incorporate that update. Before I go into the numbers, I want to briefly discuss the impact of bonus depreciation on rate base and earnings per share. While bonus depreciation results in higher deferred taxes, which lowers rate base, it also reduces our equity needs. So while bonus depreciation has a noticeable impact on rate base, it has a small impact on earnings per share because of the lower equity needs. In 2016, bonus depreciation will not impact rate base because we are already in a net operating loss position through the end of the year. In fact, we now expect to be in NOL at the enterprise level through 2019. However, we are also required to perform separate NOL calculations for each of our rate cases. As you know, we've had significant unrecovered costs in our Gas Transmission business, which has contributed to the enterprise level NOL. But when we look at the lines of business covered by our General Rate Case, which are our electric and gas distribution and electric generation businesses, we do not expect to be in an NOL position beyond 2016. As a result, bonus depreciation will impact our rate base request in the GRC beginning in 2017. The cumulative impact of bonus depreciation in 2019 is a rate base reduction of approximately $1 billion at the low end of the range, and about $1.5 billion at the high end of the range compared to the guidance we provided in Q3. There is a smaller impact in 2017 and 2018. The majority of that relates to the 2017 through 2019 General Rate Case. A smaller amount of that reduction relates to the electric transmission assets, which are covered by our FERC Transmission Owner rate case. The result is, rate base grows at a compound annual growth rate of 5% to 7% from 2017 through 2019. And again, because bonus depreciation also reduces our equity needs, that mitigates the impact on future earnings per share. To help you with this, we're providing a simple rule of thumb to estimate the net impact on earnings per share from both the reduction in authorized rate base and the lower equity needs. On the margin, a $500 million reduction in authorized rate base equates to roughly $0.02 in earnings per share. One last note on CapEx and rate base before I open it up for questions. Remember that the high-end of our CapEx range reflects only our currently filed rate cases. So there is some potential upside as we file future rate cases. Let me close by saying that I'm happy to be in the CFO role and I look forward to working with all of you. This is an exciting time for PG&E as we continue to see strong growth driven by California's policies, and our focus on enhancing safety and reliability. With that, let's open up the lines for questions.
Operator:
And our first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, you guys. Jason, just kind of going back in this bonus depreciation discussion a little bit. So you guys will adjust the rate base as the slides show for the treatment at the Utility level, but you will not be able to recover the cash until you get out of your NOL position at the corporate level?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Right, again, yes that's a fair assumption.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So how do you get net cash in to avoid the equity issuance if you're not going to be able to generate more cash, kind of in this interim three-year rate planning cycle?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
It's already factored in, in the guidance that we provided, the impact is really small in 2017 and 2019. So it's really the 2019 period to concentrate on.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
When you would actually start getting more bonus cash or perpetuate the cash tax position?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That's correct.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. So the equity issuance kind of the $600 million base line, the blue bar in the slides for 2016, and then you have the shaded area for contingencies. Is that $600 million become the ongoing run rate number as your expectation in this guidance or does that number come down?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We're not giving longer term equity guidance beyond 2016, but what I'll point to is the two main drivers of our equity needs, and that really has been our strong CapEx profile, which we've given you ranges, where you can make your own assumption. The second driver has been our need to finance our unrecovered costs. One of the biggest drivers in 2016 for that unrecovered cost is financing the remainder of the San Bruno Penalty Decision, which will be completed here in 2016. In the past, what we have said is that, and as a quick reminder, we've talked about the fact that our gas transmission right-of-way program will extend into 2017. That was a five-year program that we said will not exceed $500 million and will end in 2017. We've also said that we're not seeking approximately $50 million a year in certain costs as part of the Gas Transmission rate case. So that will extend into 2017. So you'll need to make your assumptions around these sort of unrecovered factors, but that's what I would principally concentrate on, as the drivers for our longer term equity needs.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And I guess, as Tony, I know the board is going to consider the dividend as normal course, but what factors do you think you and the board are looking at to help find a place where you're going to be comfortable to address the dividend, things we can kind of follow along to think this will check off some boxes to get more comfortable?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Dan. I think, there are a couple of things to think about. One is, we don't want this to be a one-off decision. So we want to make sure it's sustainable. Second, as you look at the changes that are going on in the Utility business, we don't want to look backward at what historical payouts have been but we want to try and figure out what our companies – what ranges are companies going to use in the future, and we'll be looking to then get ourselves in a comparable range, so we're trying to figure that out. And then the third thing on timing is, obviously, we still have a lot of things going on, and we want to make sure that we don't make the change at a time that would not be appropriate given all the things that are going on. So I think we are looking at all of those things. I think the principal thing is making sure that our decision is sustainable.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And I guess, Tony, just on that payout ratio,it seems like the industry has dropped the payout ratio over the last five years to 10 years. Is that suggesting that you think the current level is where dividends should be, or are you going more to the camp of say, Duke, today who talked about a payout ratio structurally higher than that 60% level?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think you're right, the payout ratios have come down, I mean years ago when I started this business, 80% was considered where you ought to be, and that obviously has come down. And so we want to try and anticipate where things are going to be and what's appropriate. So we'll be trying to sort that out, and our board has asked for a number of different analyses, but clearly, we want to get ourselves to where we're comparable with some of our fellow utilities that are out there.
Daniel L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning. I was wondering if you could comment a little bit more about the impact of the distribution rate plan, DRP plan on possible increasing the CapEx forecast going forward and offsetting some of that bonus depreciation impact. As well, just wondering how much spending are you planning on doing under the rider that you currently have in between rate case?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. So a couple of questions there as it relates to the DRP, I wouldn't necessarily look to that as a separate source of incremental capital. As we said in the past, our plans around modernizing our electric grid are incorporated in that 2017 through 2019 rate case and are reflected already in the CapEx that we filed. As it relates to the mechanism, something to consider there, that regulatory mechanism, which we call TAMA has really allowed us to spend additional capital previously to offset the extension of bonus. That was really intended to address situations where the extension occurred after a rate case decision, not when it's extended before the decision as it is in this case. So that mechanism isn't necessarily analogous to the situation we have here.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Got you. And another question about the time-of-use rates and the recent approval of Net metering rules. Just wondering if is it possible that the time-of-use rates might actually make Net metering less valuable to solar players in your jurisdiction? I'm just wondering what you think the impact of time-of-use might have on solar growth in your jurisdiction?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
Hi, this is Steve Malnight, from regulatory affairs. Let me comment quickly on that. I do think there are several components of what we feel the rate structures need to move towards in the future, and time-of-use rates is one of them. So we were pleased to see in the NEM decision that we will be moving solar customers to time-of-use rate. It's not the silver bullet that solves all the problems, and in total that NEM decision we feel didn't really go far enough in addressing the issues that are caused by subsidization that happens with the NEM rate. So we'll continue to look at that decision. The Commission did decide that they will be revisiting it in 2019. And I would just remind you between now and 2019, we have a lot of changes that are happening in base rates in California with collapsing of the tiers, and with the potential to move customers, all customers, to time-of-use rate. So we'll look forward to that conversation in 2019 as well.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Bernstein.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi. Thank you for taking the question. Just going into page six and the quarter-over-quarter comparison, the miscellaneous items this year of this quarter of $0.09 are equivalent to almost 20% of the Q4 earnings. Just wondering if you can give us a little more clarity as to what the bigger items are in that, if possible.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Sure. Thanks, Hugh. Just as a quick reminder, for the year miscellaneous items is at roughly about $0.02. And so what I'll say is miscellaneous items generally have a number of factors both timing and non-timing related. A couple of the things that have driven the Q4 results were higher gas transmission revenues as a result of the colder weather we experienced in the fourth quarter, as well as we experienced some favorable settlements and employee benefit costs during that quarter, which are reflected in those numbers. But again these are really timing items, and over the course of the year they netted out to a small amount.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great. And then on the item on the right, the $0.10 GT&S cost recovery item, those are basically increased GT&S costs that you've not been able to recover due to the delay in any revenue increase being granted in the case. There's nothing in that number for rate base growth and return on equity associated with your request in the case, right? That is excluded here.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That's correct. That $0.10 really relates to our operating expenses for which we're not receiving recovery through the GT&S rate case because of the delay in the decision. But the full impact on a quarter basis is roughly $0.15 when you include the lack of return on rate base depreciation, et cetera. As I mentioned, it's a total of roughly $0.60 for the full year, is the full impact of not having the GT&S decision.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
$0.50 including the rate base growth and return on equity.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
$0.15 for the quarter includes both the unrecovered costs, of which that's $0.10 and then $0.05 is roughly the impact of the lack of the rate base return.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And the number for the year of $0.50, is that right, or did I miss hear?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I'm sorry, $0.60.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And that's including both as well.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That's right.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then Tony, I wonder, if I could just ask you for a quick update on where we stand in the distribution safety records case, what we should be anticipating there, what downside risk there might be, and to the extent that there is any new information that's worth bringing out on the federal indictment or the investigation into the Bush (sic) [Butte] fire, I'd appreciate that as well.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. We'll walk through those and I may hand off some of them for some more detail. The distribution records cases, it's in process, there has been testimony given in the case. So we've got a consultant's report and in a minute I'll let Steve Malnight just comment on exactly where that is. With respect to the criminal case, the trial has been pushed back to the end of March. We continue to believe that there is no basis to conclude that any PG&E employee willfully violated the Pipeline Safety Act, and we are proceeding on that basis. Obviously, when it goes to trial there's going to be negative publicity, but we still firmly believe that we've got a solid case there going forward. And then you had one other case...
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
The Bush (sic) [Butte] fire.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, the Bush (sic) [Butte] fire. Let me ask Geisha to comment on that.
Geisha J. Williams - President, Electric, PG&E Corp.:
Hi, Hugh, this is Geisha. So as we've previously reported, CAL FIRE is investigating whether in fact a live tree made contact with some of our power lines in the vicinity and near the ignition point. It's a very detailed investigation, it's continuing and we haven't heard anything additional. So we really don't have any further updates at this point, obviously cooperating with them, providing them lots of information, and we're hopeful that we'll hear something soon but our experience shows that this could take a while.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Then just a quick follow up on that. Tony, remind us of the maximum amount of the penalty that the government could now seek on the federal indictment and whether – and if you have any guidance, similar guidance, on the safety distribution records case, I'd appreciate that.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. Let me let Hyun Park comment on where we are now on the penalty.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah, hi, Hugh. So the court issued an order late last year, basically eliminating the loss based Alternative Fines Act allegation. So it could have been up to $1.13 billion, and that fine possibility has now been eliminated. So the other question that's under consideration right now is whether or not the Alternative Fines Act allegation based on gross gains can be admitted. And the court just recently deferred decision on that, and basically said that the court wants to see how the case comes in, and if the company is convicted and if the alternative gains evidence is not going to unduly complicate the trial then the court will bifurcate the trial and consider that at the second phase.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
What's the max there?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
That's $562 million, so that's what's been deferred. But, you have to also recall that the court dismissed 15 counts, so we're now down to 13 counts, and if you don't have the Alternative Fines Act allegations that come in, and if the government doesn't prevail on that, then each count has a fine of $500,000. So 13 counts would amount to $6.5 million.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great. And any similar guidance on the safety records case or is that not possible?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let me let Steve comment on that safety records case.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
So, on the distribution records OII this is Steve Malnight again. As Tony said, we concluded the hearings in January. I think we had good and successful hearings in that case. So the case is now concluded. I would just highlight a few things, I think it's worth noting that even in SED's testimony they acknowledged that PG&E has made a lot of improvements in our distribution record keeping and commended us for some extensive use of internal and external audits. And we had the opportunity through the hearings to really comment about a number of the industry best practices that we've been implementing including our efforts, our multi-year efforts to consolidate and digitize gas distribution records, providing crews in the field with additional tools, including electronic maps and tablets, and really multiple layers of safety protections in place when we do work in the field. So we thought that getting those things out was a successful conclusion to that case. The next steps, just to highlight for you, next week, we expect parties to file with – they'll be filing – sorry, they'll be filing opening briefs next week including SED's, so we'll see what that says. And I guess just the last reminder is that, we already were fined for the Carmel incident, so we'll see what comes out after that remains.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Carmel was how big?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
That fine was $10.8 million.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you for your time. I appreciate that very much.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. I just wanted to follow up on the criminal trial question, and maybe you guys could elaborate on the timing there and the different scenarios of what could play out. Are you saying that the gross gains fine could potentially be thrown out by the judge, or is it just best case scenario there would be kind of together with the current trial as opposed to separated out into a separate proceeding, and kind of in all of those cases, what would we look at in terms of changes to the calendar?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So this is Hyun Park again. The court has not decided whether to admit the gross gains evidence. So that's still under consideration. So the trial is scheduled to start on the 22nd of March, and barring any further continuance, the parties have submitted an estimate, and the estimate that's been submitted is that it may take approximately six weeks, four weeks for the prosecution and two weeks for the defense, but that's I think a very rough estimate at this point.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
This is Tony. One other thing on the issue around the Alternative Fines, because it's a criminal case, it has to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. And I have trouble figuring how there would be any gain shown, in fact, the company sustained huge losses as a result of that. So the suggestion that they're going to be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the company had $500 million in gains resulting from San Bruno, it's hard for me to understand.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And they could still kind of throw out the idea that there was $550 million of gains, but still prove you guys guilty of having a deliberate attempt to thwart the law to achieve gains.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, they have to prove that first, that's the first step is, that they would have to prove that there was a willful and deliberate violation of the law, that somebody decided, I know what the law is, but I'm just going to violate it anyway and then you don't even get to the alternative gains consideration unless you get that. And then they would have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the number was the number, whatever number they want to push.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Got you. And then what would be the potential final, I guess jury decision point here, in terms of when that would occur, and then is there still I guess a chance on this point in the process for a settlement to occur?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Let me comment on the settlement. I mean, we're always open to a settlement if someone wants to make an offer. We've made efforts in the past that haven't gone anywhere, but we'd be open to it. But Hyun, why don't you comment on the timing that you think...
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So I gave you the current estimate of how long the trial might take. And then of course it's a question of how long it takes for the jury to deliberate and reach a decision. And I can't tell you how long that will take.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
But given a late March start, you'd be looking at some time in probably the May timeframe.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then, my second question relates to the GT&S ALJ decision, and final decision whenever that may kind of finally come here. Is there a way that we can think about different buckets of CapEx that you have requested here, and any kind of color into how those could come out in terms of approval or disapproval? And just how to think about the various scenarios of the outcome here, even though you probably wouldn't want to forecast what actually happens?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I really think it's probably premature to forecast what the decision will look like before we have it in hand. What I will say though is the capital expenditures' forecast for the year that we've included, the $700 million reflects what we filed in that case. And so you'll have to make your own assumptions around where that case will ultimately end up.
Christopher J. Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Great. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldenberg with Luminus Management.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Michael.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
I wanted to understand better at the issue of bonus depreciation. So I understand that mathematically how it works. But I also do know that you have the mechanism that you kind of have and it can be applied for. Does this take that – does the announcement that you've put forward take into consideration the fact that you may yet get this mechanism and reinvest the CapEx, and you just don't have somewhere to invest, or are you just assuming you're not going to get it, or you're being conservative and just not incorporating it in?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The ranges we provided do not reflect any incremental capital from that mechanism we've had in the past. I really think it's important to point out that, that regulatory mechanism which has allowed us to spend that additional capital, when bonus was extended in the past, it was really intended to address the situations where that extension occurred after we received the rate case decision. In this case, bonus was extended before we have a decision, so it's not necessarily applicable in this case.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Are you not going to apply for it?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We've requested the extension of that mechanism as part of our original 2017 GRC filing. But again, it really is intended to address situations where bonus was extended after we received a decision in the case.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
So are you saying you're unlikely to get the treatment again?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I would say, that's a fair assumption. It could be extended, but since bonus has already been extended for five years, I think that's a fair assumption.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
And if you were to get it, how would the numbers change?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I really don't think the numbers change in this case.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
I got you. Thank you.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
What I will point out though in the comment that I made is, the high-end of our ranges reflect what we've currently filed in our rate cases. And so just as a quick reminder over this 2016 through 2019 period, our currently filed rate case for our electric transmission assets is only through 2016. So we'll have to file an annual case for 2017, 2018 and 2019. As well our GT&S case only covers up to 2017. So we will file an additional rate case covering the period of 2018 and 2019. There is an opportunity where we may spend additional capital or request additional capital in those rate cases that are not reflected in these ranges here.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. You may proceed.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Hi, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hello.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
A quick question on slide 12, where you're talking about your updated rate base. And it seems like effectively because you're mitigating the need to issue equity or reducing the need to issue equity. In your base case plan there was equity need literally in each of the years as 2017, 2018, 2019, is that fair? And secondly, is it possible that due to bonus now you probably don't need any equity in any one of those years, how should we think about that?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
What I'll come back to is, the two main drivers of our equity needs have really been our CapEx program, and so we provided ranges here. You're going to have to make your assumptions about where we fallout in that range, and what that incremental equity will be needed to fund those levels. The other driver of our equity needs, as I mentioned before, is our unrecovered cost. As I mentioned, the majority of the unrecovered costs that are driving our equity needs in 2016 really relate to the financing of the remaining penalties of the San Bruno Penalty Decision. We will complete the financing of that penalty this year in 2016. So you can make your assumption about what those unrecovered costs will be post 2016.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Got you. And then secondly, from a retail rate perspective, as bonus depreciation reverses over time, and rate base grows, is there any concern that there is a concern for retail rates going up in the 2019 timeframe, and what that means for pushback in terms of further CapEx spend?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We're constantly focused on affordability of our service, but there is a number of factors that are going to play out over the period of time with which bonus depreciation reverses. So I don't think we can isolate that today as a driver or a concern about our rate levels.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. (Broker):
Okay. Great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just a few quick ones, the Community Choice Aggregation and Net metering issues, are those sort of resolved now one-way or the other, or do you expect further action in those areas?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
As Steve Malnight mentioned earlier, Net Energy Metering is not fully resolved. The Commission issued a decision, I mean, what we call Net Energy Metering 2.0, but now in 2019, they're going to take the issue up again. I mean, there is still this issue of cross subsidization. We think there is still work to do to get the rate structure right. So we don't have one group of customers subsidizing another, and we're going to be continuing to work with, not only the Commission, but all of the parties on this. So more to come on Net Energy Metering. And so that's something we're going to be working on. The other part...
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Community Choice Aggregation.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, CCAs, I mean, CCAs are – that gives local communities the right to aggregate. Now, they are still PG&E customers. We deliver the energy to the customer. The energy costs are a pass-through, so we don't make money or lose money on CCAs. One of the frustrations that we have is we want to make sure that customers understand what they're getting, when they go to a CCA. We want to make sure that from a cost standpoint and from a clean energy standpoint we are very competitive and we think we are. But in the end, right now, it doesn't have an impact on our bottom line.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Well, theoretically, Net metering wouldn't either, right? I mean, in terms of...
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No. Yeah, Net metering doesn't hurt us, it hurts our customers.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Right.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Or a certain class of the customers.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Right. I was just wondering if Community Choice Aggregation, I think the Commission acted on this, or at least one of the issues related to this, whether or not that cost shifting is an issue similar to net metering, or if that's been resolved, I guess. Do you follow what I'm saying?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President, Regulatory Affairs, PG&E Corp.:
Yeah. This is Steve Malnight again. I think you're referring to the PCIA proceeding that occurred last year in our ERRA case. And the Commission set – they finalized the ERRA case in December, and really that sets our rates for this year. They did announce they're going to have a workshop to look at the PCIA methodology going forward. It's a very complex methodology by which we calculate what are the costs that when customers leave, bundled customers have already procured on their behalf. And as a part of the CCA mechanism they retain those costs when they go to CCA service. So we'll have a workshop on that here coming up very shortly, actually, and we'll continue to work through that during the year, but there's not another formal proceeding that's been opened on that.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then as you guys are well aware, there's all this effort for CPUC reform. I mean, we've had legislation that's passed unanimously, was vetoed last year, and it looks like it's again showing up. I think it just recently – some of the similar legislation, and apparently they don't override vetoes with the Governor, but their validation of efforts et cetera. I mean, just if you could comment a little bit on that or what opportunities or risks you see with – I mean, with these rather – I don't know, it just seems that there is a big push legislatively, obviously to pass this unanimously for some form of reform, and how we should think about that and how you guys are sort of handling it?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I mean, in California there are always lots of pieces of legislation, and it's hard to handicap which ones are going to make it through the process and which ones aren't. And quite honestly we've kind of stayed out of that issue. I mean, however, the state wants to structure the CPUC, we'll work with it. The bottom-line though from a regulatory standpoint in California we still have really good regulatory structures in place, and there's nothing that leads any of us to believe that the fundamental positive regulatory structures that we have in California is going to change.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So these efforts and what have you, it's a lot of noise but you don't see that as a threat to, or risk to, any potential change in that good constructive regulatory environment that you have. I don't mean to put words in your mouth, but am I understanding it correctly?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I mean, we think from the Utility standpoint – we'll work within whatever regulatory structure, and a lot of the proposals around governance at the CPUC, but no one is proposing we change some of these very positive structures. And the trends that we've had such as going to clean energy, which means we got to modernize and make the grid more flexible, which means we've got a lot of investments which is driving our capital needs.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then just finally on the criminal case. I guess I'm a little bit confused. It seems like they are asking or they are seeking – the way you described it is that there has to be a finding of willful, deliberate deceit and I would assume that that would be on the part of individuals. But it doesn't seem like they are charging any individuals, they are charging the company as a whole, if I understand it correctly. Is that unusual to be sort of saying, hey, instead of making a charge that, there was a deliberate attempt to do something, but not actually charging the individuals with it. I guess, I'm just a little bit confused about how that works, or is that sort of typical in these cases? I just don't know.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Well, that's something that we've obviously been pointing out to the court. The requirement is knowing and willful violation of the Pipeline Safety Act regulation, and there is also an obstruction charge as well. And there is a theory out there called collective knowledge, and we believe that's what the government is looking to, but as you know, corporations are entities, and corporations as legal entities don't commit actions, it's the individuals, right? So these are issues that are very much at play and they are before the court right now.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, good morning. Quickly, earlier in the San Bruno proceeding you had reserved some funds for the state fine. Have you guys reserved any funds for the potential of a federal fine?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We have not.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. And also I wanted to follow up on Mike Goldenberg's question, just on bonus, and if I follow it correctly, understand it, it lowers rate base. Is there an appetite with intervenors or the regulators for maybe the company to spend more than it historically has because customers do – there's some type of shield – I wouldn't say – it minimizes the rate impact with bonus there. Is there any appetite for that with intervenors or the regulators?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I want to continue to emphasize that TAMA account or that regulatory mechanism that we had to increase our capital expenditures in the past really isn't applicable in this case for the extension of bonus. So what I would really concentrate on is the potential opportunity for additional spending in our transmission rate cases, which we will file over the next couple of years.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
No. I follow that, that mechanism is not going to be like – doesn't really work here, but when you make those filings, do you get a feeling with intervenors now that they'd be willing to maybe spend more in CapEx because of bonus?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We haven't picked up that any of them are demanding we spend more money right now. I mean, and to just reiterate what Jason said, in these later cases that we file, we're going to be evaluating what our needs are, and that will then be the subject of a hearing. But no one's out there saying, that I've heard, has said, yeah, because of bonus depreciation being extended, you guys ought to be spending more money.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Hi, thanks. I want to go back on the GT&S. I think I heard you correctly at the $0.60 cash benefit that you guys expect in 2016, obviously, pending that decision. If that's correct, I heard you guys correctly, how much of that is going into that equity reduction bucket, and then how much would go to other uses perhaps reducing short-term debt or whatever financing you took out last year?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. So I want to clarify that $0.60, that really is sort of the full impact of not having a rate case decision. The placeholder that we put in terms of a driver of our equity needs, there is a number of assumptions that are going to go into that. It includes things like what are the overall level of revenues that are going to be authorized in that case, the timing of the decision, when we will collect those additional revenues. And so we're not providing guidance to this specific factors. I'll leave that up to you. But I wanted to point out that one of the drivers for the reduction in equity needs year-over-year is the fact that we anticipate the GT&S decision this year.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Would it be fair to assume it's somewhat in lines of that – of your authorized capital structure such that you expect probably half of that to go to equity and half to pay down whatever debt or other financing you used?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I think that's a reasonable way to think about it.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. The second for Tony, strategically, you're looking ahead – a couple of years you talked about clean energy, you talked about the next generation grid stuff. What's your appetite for investing outside of the Utility in some of those projects or whether it's secondary, third-party, or even you guys yourselves directly?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That's a really good question. And over the four-and-a-half years I have been here, the focus has been on really focusing on back to basics, getting the company running well, getting through the regulatory proceedings, things we've talked about on this call. We do think that there are opportunities. I will tell you the affiliate rules here in California make that very difficult. In many states, you can have your experts in various areas spend part of their time, looking outside the Utility, just divvy up their time to make sure that their time is being charged to the right place. Whereas California, it's very difficult to use the expertise you've developed in the Utility to work on things outside the Utility. So you'd have to have a big enough opportunity to say, all right, I'm going to bite the bullet, set up a whole separate organization to pursue these things. But that said, I don't think, a week goes by where one of us on the team doesn't have somebody coming in and having some ideas about how technology can improve this business. We actually look at them, can we incorporate them within the Utility structure and be successful, and help us, they wouldn't help the bottom line necessarily, but it might lower our costs to our customers, which in the long run I think is a very positive thing. So we are looking at those opportunities because we really do believe that we are as far if not farther along than most other Utility incorporating some of these technologies into the grid, I mean, as I said, we've crossed over 30% on renewables now, and as for the 33% requirement by 2020. So we're way ahead of the curve, going to 50% renewables, we have confidence that we can manage 50% renewable. Many of our colleagues in the industry are struggling with how do you handle 10% or 15% renewables on your system. So we've put in place the mechanisms and the technology to do it.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
So Matt, I think we have time for one more question on the call today.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Thanks very much.
Operator:
Okay. Our question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Hey, good morning and congrats. Jason, it would really help us because you gave us the rate base which was very, very helpful, and I think, one thing would be very helpful if you can just tell us what would the 2016 equity needs have been on a normalized year. If there was no funding of penalty or the extra costs that you incurred this year. What would have that number been for the year 2016, that would help us to clear a lot of confusion regarding the growth rate.
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We're not providing those individual factors, but what I would say is, we provided rate base out there. So you have sort of the inputs to calculate it yourself, and in addition, we've got a couple of slides in the back of the deck which highlight the equity needs for the San Bruno Penalty Decision which you can also use to kind of back out sort of the equity needs related to that component of our equity drivers. So the factors are there, but we're not providing specific value.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
So if my math is correct, if I do that it would have been nearly half, like $300 million to $400 million if you take all those extraneous factors out?
Jason P. Wells - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I think I'll leave you to do that calculation.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
Okay.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thank you everyone for joining us this morning and have a safe day.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
Analysts:
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar Research
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Good morning, everyone. This is Janet Loduca, and thank you for joining us for the Pacific Gas and Electric Corporation's Third Quarter Earnings Call. Before I turn over to Tony Earley, I want to remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, which is based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations, and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2014 Annual Report. With that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Janet, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Our key focus areas remain unchanged. California continues to lead the U.S. in driving clean energy policies and PG&E will play a critical role in helping to achieve the state's goals. We also know that safety must be at the core of all of our decisions and our commitment to that is unwavering. We continue to make progress towards resolving outstanding regulatory and legal issues, while strengthening our safety and compliance programs. We believe that executing our strategies in these focus areas will provide the foundation for both operational and financial success. So I'm going to touch on some of the key developments this quarter before I turn it over to Kent, to discuss our financial results. Geisha Williams and Nick Stavropoulos are also with us today and they'll be available to take any questions that you have. In terms of our focus on clean energy, PG&E has a long history of action on climate change and we've been a vocal advocate for policies that will move us forward. In fact, I recently participated in a meeting with President Obama and talked about the actions PG&E is taking to help drive clean energy policy and greenhouse gas reductions. We supported Governor Brown's recent move to increase the renewable energy target to 50% by 2030 and we're confident that we can get there. We've been investing in the electric grid to enable both utility scale renewables and the growing distributed resources such as rooftop solar, electric vehicles and energy storage. During the quarter, we filed our proposal to update the current net metering rates. Our proposal supports the continued growth of rooftop solar, while beginning the transition to a sustainable rate structure that also supports the necessary grid investments. Our 2017 General Rate Case includes detailed proposals for continued grid modernization to ensure that we have the visibility and flexibility we'll need to enable all of the new distributed resources. Our General Rate Case also supports our goal on delivering customer expectations by providing customers with safe, reliable, and affordable service. Using a risk based approach, we proposed safety related investments across the system, including replacing aging infrastructure, taking targeted actions to reduce risk and improving our emergency response, and we balanced the necessary investments with affordability. Average residential bills will increase less than 3% and will remain below the national average. In terms of reliability, the most significant event this quarter were the fires in Northern California. As you know, California is in its fourth year of a severe drought and we've been partnering throughout the year with CAL FIRE and other stakeholders to address a challenging fire season. Our efforts have included things like increased patrols and vegetation management, as well as enhanced emergency response coordination. At one point, the state was simultaneously fighting three major wildfires across 300,000 acres of our service territory. In addition to restoring power to impacted customers, our crews came up with creative ways to meet our community's needs in a very challenging time. So for example, we leveraged the new exportable power technology from our electric trucks, to provide an evacuation shelter with backup electricity when its generator failed. The response from our customers and other stakeholders has been positive and we're really proud of how safely and quickly our crews were able to perform the work. As we've publically reported, CAL FIRE is investigating whether one of our electric clients could potentially been the source of the Butte Fire. That investigation is still underway and could take quite a while to complete, so we don't have any updates on that at this time. On the heels of the state's historic drought, we're now hearing forecasts about an El Niño winter, which could bring significant rainfall and cause mudslides and floods. Our team has been preparing for this possibility through a wide array of actions, including updating our meteorological models and performing drills that simulate potential flood scenarios. Finally, in terms of resolving outstanding regulatory issues, we recently received a report from the Safety and Enforcement Division in the Gas Distribution Record-keeping Investigation. While the report identified a number of potential past violations, which we'll be responding to in the next month, we were pleased to see that it also acknowledged the progress we've made to improve our records. Over the last few years, we've implemented a number of new procedures that have been informed by extensive benchmarking and industry best practices. As we said from the beginning, we know we have more work to do to enhance our distribution records and practices, and we're absolutely committed to getting that right. Geisha and Nick recently had a chance to share some of the actions we've taken to improve our safety culture at the California Public Utilities Commission's first-ever safety en banc. This was an opportunity for all five commissioners, the presidents of California's investor-owned utilities and a number of interveners to talk about what each of the utilities is currently doing around safety, and what changes the Commission might make to better incorporate safety into its proceedings. Nick and Geisha talked about the changes made by our board of directors to focus on safety, the strong link between our executive compensation programs and safety performance, our use of third-party experts and benchmarking and the way we engage our front-line crews around safety. The Commission also had the opportunity to hear from other utilities and to start thinking about how to create common metrics to track and measure progress. I can tell you that we thought it was a really positive step forward in the conversation and we look forward to continuing the dialog with all the parties. So, before I turn this over to Kent, I just want to take a moment to thank him for all that he has done for PG&E. As you know after 33 years with the company, Kent has decided to retire next year. Kent has done a tremendous job managing PG&E's financial activities during challenges that were some of the most complex in our industry. He has also been a great source of leadership and inspiration across the company. We're working through the succession process right now, and I'm thankful that Kent has agreed to stay on to ensure a smooth transition. So, thank you, Kent and with that I'll turn it over to you.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thank you, Tony. Good morning, everyone. I plan to first cover our results for the quarter and then I'll go through our updated guidance. Let me say upfront that the complexity of our rate case timing issues has made it especially difficult for you to forecast quarterly results. However, we do expect solid results for the full-year and you'll see that when I get to guidance. So, I'll start with our quarterly results, which is on slide five. Earnings from operations were $0.84 in the third quarter and GAAP earnings, including our items impacting comparability, were $0.63. Our pipeline-related expenses in the quarter were $32 million pre-tax, or $19 million after tax shown in the table. This includes our costs to remediate encroachments on our pipeline rights-of-way and to complete the remaining expense work for our Pipeline Safety Enhancement Plan. Our legal and regulatory-related expenses in the quarter were $14 million pre-tax, or $8 million after tax in the table, and here we have our costs for litigation and enforcement activities related to natural gas matters and regulatory communications. Fines and penalties in the quarter were $142 million pre-tax as shown in the table below. This amount represents the disallowed capital work coming out of the final San Bruno penalty decision, which we're accruing as we do the work. Finally, we received insurance recoveries in the quarter of $10 million pre-tax, or $6 million after tax, as shown in the table above. I'm pleased that we've now resolved all San Bruno claims with our insurance carriers, and in total, we recovered $515 million through insurance. Moving to slide six, you'll see our quarter-over-quarter comparison of earnings from operations of $1.73 in Q3 last year and $0.84 in Q3 this year and this is where it gets a little complicated due to all the timing issues. In Q3 last year, we've recorded three quarters worth of revenue increase associated with our 2014 General Rate Case. That's the biggest difference from Q3 of last year, worth $0.47. $0.16 is associated with the lower cost recovery this year due to the timing of the Gas Transmission rate case. As you know, a lot of our transmission work is seasonal and the Q3 amount reflects a higher level of activity in the summer months. When we receive a final decision in the case next year, the revenue increase will be retroactive to January 1, 2015. $0.09 relates to the timing of taxes, which will reverse to zero by year-end. $0.05 relates to regulatory and legal matters. This includes the impact of some favorable regulatory decisions in Q3 of last year, as well as some legal costs incurred in Q3 of this year. Another $0.05 is associated with an increase in shares outstanding and the impact here of share count is magnified by the fact that earnings in Q3 last year were so much higher as a result of booking three quarters worth of revenue increase to the GRC. $0.03 relates to the disposition of SolarCity stock in Q3 last year, and $0.09 relates to a variety of smaller miscellaneous items, many of which are timing. And we've had positive miscellaneous items in previous quarters. These factors are partially offset by a $0.05 increase due to growth in rate base earnings. That's it for our Q3 results. On slide seven, you'll see our 2015 guidance. Previously, we've had a guidance range for earnings from operations of $2.90 to $3.10. Year-to-date, we've been trending towards the upper end of this range. Therefore, today, we're narrowing our range to between $3.00 – $3.10. There are few other changes to this slide. We've reduced our range for pipeline related expenses, and I'll say more about that in a moment. We've also updated our insurance recoveries just to reflect the amount we've recovered in the quarter. Our resulting GAAP guidance is shown at the bottom of the table. On slide eight, we've updated our 2015 CapEx assumptions from $5.5 billion previously to $5.3 billion. There are really two main reasons for this update. First, our response to the recent wildfires displaced some of our planned work in electric operations. And second, we're realizing some efficiencies in gas operations, primarily related to our distribution pipe replacement program. The other assumptions for 2015 on this slide remained consistent with what we've previously provided. Slide nine reflects the updated range for pipeline-related expenses that I mentioned earlier. You can see we've decreased the upper end of that range from a $150 million to $125 million. The lower end remains at $100 million. You'll recall that this item is primarily associated with our rights-of-way work, and we continue to expect that the cost of the overall program will not exceed $500 million. Moving on to slide 10. Our total equity needs for 2015 remain the same at $700 million to $800 million. Through the end of Q3, we've issued roughly $700 million of equity. This includes about $350 million through a block trade done in August, about $75 million through our continuous equity offering program earlier in the year, and then about $275 million through our internal programs. Those are our 401(k) and dividend reinvestment programs. We do not expect to issue any additional equity this year other than through our internal programs. Slide 11 shows our estimated CapEx through 2019 and other than the change to 2015 that I previously covered, the ranges for 2016 through 2019 remain the same. Slide 12 shows our estimates of authorized rate base through 2019 and these are consistent with the CapEx ranges on the previous slide. As a result, we estimate that 6% to 8% annual growth in our authorized rate base over this period. As Tony discussed, California's clean energy policies and our focus on system safety and reliability are driving significant investment in the coming years and support this strong growth profile. I'll stop here so that we can now open the lines for your questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Good morning.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
A quick question, just on the CapEx and I guess therefore the rate base ranges. Could you talk to what it is in the base, the bottom-end of the range? Is that just authorized spending? And then the other things that you mentioned are what defines the shaded sections, or is there some other way of being a little more clear about what exactly is in and out of the two pieces, two different levels?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So, Jonathan, this is Kent. Let me kind of go through by parts of the business, which really relate to the regulatory proceedings. So, for the electric and gas distribution and generation, which is our General Rate Case, the high end reflects the amounts that we've requested in the 2017 General Rate Case. For gas transmission, the high end in 2017 reflects the amount that we requested in the gas transmission rate case. And then in 2018 and 2019, we've just kept that amount flat with the 2017 request. And then for electric transmission, which is our TO Case, we've really only requested an amount through 2016, our TO17 case. And so, our 2017 through 2019 levels are flat at the 2016 request. For the low end basically, it's consistent with the low end that we've had out there already for 2016 across the board.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And how about your distributions resource plan, for example? Where does that fit into this – the range? Is that in the high end or not?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
We did not have a specific ask in that proceeding, but a lot of those types of investments for automating the system and so forth, are included in our General Rate Case. So those components are included in the overall ask, and therefore in the overall range, the upper end of the range.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So put simply, if you got everything you've asked for in both of the big outstanding cases, you would come in at the high end?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That's correct. And then of course, we'll have updates because at some point we'll file another gas transmission case for beyond 2017, and we'll also file additional transmission owner cases for beyond 2016.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you, Kent. That was my question. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys. Can I just ask about with the El Niño concerns about the storms in the preparations there? How do you guys address cost recovery if you end up with some disproportionally high storm costs this year, I guess, next year? And how would that affect the numbers as we think about ongoing earnings estimates?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent. We do have the balancing account treatment in our current General Rate Case for major storms. In addition, for things like the wildfires, we just had where – in cases where the Governor declares a disaster area, we also have the ability to seek recovery through a catastrophic event memorandum account. So, there is a few different mechanisms that are in place in California.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you. And I guess the next question, Tony, with the electric vehicle charging station decision it was kind of a deviation from what you guys seem have been messaged from the Governor as far as his priorities are concerned, A, how do think this is going to work out from meeting the Governor's rules on vehicles? But second, when you look at the DRP is there a disconnect between the goals of the Governor and what the Commission's proving to be supportive of you guys investing in?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, obviously, we thought that our initial proposal was totally consistent with the Governor's goals on electric vehicles. I think the Commission felt it was overly aggressive and wants to phase it in, and in terms of our spending estimates since, it takes a while to gear up, it really doesn't affect any of the numbers that Kent is talking about. We just want to get the program up and running, and we think that once we get it running, we'll show that it's very well received and is consistent with the electric vehicle strategy in California. So it was disappointing, we didn't get the full green light, but we're going to continue to work to get still a fairly aggressive program out there.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And then I guess, just what it means as far as the pacing of DRP capital. Is there going to be more of a test for each one of these new initiatives along the way rather than maybe a more wholesale buy in of what you need to do to accomplish the bigger state goals?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I think, as Kent just said a minute ago that the DRP capital is spread among the various regulatory cases. So our General Rate Case has some of it in – and that's where it will be addressed, and it's being addressed now. We've submitted that case and it will go through the hearing process. So I don't expect a separate rate making proceeding for DRP. DRP expenditures will just be rolled into various other proceedings.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And I guess one last question, just with the Edison case where the manufacturing tax deductions are, they're trying to slap them as a reduction in rate base and the next rate case to claw back those earnings. How is that affecting you guys from maybe the way you're thinking about recognizing those earnings, those benefits during this GRC process and if there was a precedent that the Commission was pulling those back, would you guys need to change how you're recognizing them in your numbers?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Hi, Dan. This is Dinyar Mistry, the Controller. We've taken a look at the Edison PD and we think that our situation is different from Edison. We just filed our 2017 GRC, so prospectively the Commission will consider our request over there. But at this point in time, we don't anticipate changing our treatment.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi, good morning. So, first of all, Kent, I guess an early good-bye. We will miss you. Secondly, on the similar question regarding the Edison PD on their GRC. Is there any policy issues there that concern you at all, relative to your case?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
The major issue we've seen has been the repairs issue, which Dinyar just addressed and we do think we are in a little bit different situation. That's the biggest one that we've been watching.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. And then the – maybe just on the criminal case. I know there has been a lot of activity. Can you maybe just give us an update on whether any of the allegations have been thrown out at this point and do we still have some kind of trial in March of next year?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. This is Tony. Let me start off and then I'll let Hyun jump in. Those of you who have been involved in major litigations, this is just the pre-trial motions stage, there is a lot of activity going on, there will continue to be more activity leading up to the trial. The trial is still scheduled for next spring. We'll see what happens as we get closer to it, but, Hyun, why don't you comment on where we are.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. So, Steve, we did file a number of motions, and all the motions have been submitted to the Judge, so we're just waiting for the Judge to issue his ruling on our motions.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Great. And then on the GT&S case, I know there is oral arguments today, but in terms of – is any relevant updates there in terms of potential outcomes we should be aware of?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Hi, this is Steve Malnight from Reg Affairs. Really, we don't have any additional updates, timing still looks like next year for the case. We'll look forward to the oral argument later today.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. Congratulations, Kent, by the way.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, when do you guys think you will be in a position to discuss 2016 guidance and dividend policy?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, that's something that we look at every time I'm with my board of directors. We discussed that dividend policy. We've not tied it to any specific outcome at the Commission, what we are focusing on is, what is the right time to address that. I'm well aware that our investors have been very patient on this. We're committed to getting our dividend in line with our peers, but it's got to be at the right time and we continue to assess that.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
In terms of timing of guidance, I'd just say we're looking towards hopefully getting back in a regular rhythm with guidance. And I'd like to think we'll be in a position to do that in the first quarter.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And just one follow-up question on the repairs deduction issue. Can you just refresh how are you guys treating it and how – is there any simple way to explain why your situation is different than the Edison's?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Yeah. This is Dinyar again. So, the rate making for repairs is that customer rates are reduced for taxes that aren't currently paid to the IRS. That's the fundamental principle of the flow through rate making, and to the extent that there is a forecast difference between what was in the rate case and what actually occur, during that rate case period, up or down that forecast difference affects the bottom line. I would say the primary difference between us and the Edison Case is that, in the Edison PD it's indicated that its previous GRC request was based on a different methodology for calculating the tax repairs than was actually applied during that period. But for us we've applied the same methodology for our actuals that we used to develop the forecast, and so I think that's probably the key difference.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah, guys. Just curious when you think about longer-term, do you expect to be a company that winds up growing earnings kind of in pace with rate base growth? Is there anything structural that can make it something different than that over time?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Michael, this is Kent. I think at the levels of rate base growth and CapEx frankly that we are having right now, they do require some equity issuance. And so, generally you'll see earnings grow with rate base, but you'd have to net out whatever equity issuance you need to support that level of CapEx. At lower levels you could see that, but we're at higher levels and I do think that requires some level of equity issuance.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay. Second, Tony, you made the comment about you talked to the board about dividend and dividend policy. Can you dive a little bit into the – when you think about dividend policy, are we talking a payout ratio, a growth rate, a dividend yield target relative to the peer group? I'm just going to think about what are the metrics you and the board are looking at, when you all have the discussions about dividend policy.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent. I'll just say, generally, probably the primary metric we look at is payout ratio. We look at the industry and it's pretty nicely clumped. So it's pretty easy to see where the industry is and we're a bit below that. And so, that's the primary issue we'll be addressing.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Okay, guys. Thank you. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with AllianceBernstein.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi. Thank you. Two questions. One, I was just wondering if you might bring us up to date on any developments that could shed light on potential outcomes of the Gas Distribution Records OII? And then similarly whether there been any developments with respect to the CAL FIRE investigation into the origins of the Butte bush fire?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let me comment on the CAL FIRE. Their investigation is ongoing, we're cooperating with it, we don't have any updates. Traditionally, those investigations take quite some time, because it's hard because all the evidence is burned up. So it takes a lot of work to figure out exactly what happened. With respect to other proceedings, Steve, you – I don't think we have any updates there.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
No, we don't really have any updates on the OII. We saw the SED filing as was mentioned earlier, we'll file our rebuttal testimony in November, and then we'd expect hearings on that in January, first part of the year.
Hugh D. Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Question on dividend, going back to that. Given some of the changes that will take place in the C-Suite over the next 12 months, does that to some degree make you think that you ought to maintain flexibility on the dividend until the next set of C-Suite executives comes in or does that not factor into your thinking about how you think about the timing of a dividend policy going forward?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I don't think it has any connection at all to dividend policy. Dividend policy is based upon our financial situation and our assessment of what's going on on the regulatory front and doesn't have anything to do with the C-Suite changes.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Okay. Understood. Secondly, on the cost of capital mechanism and the proceedings that will come up next year, it seems like mechanically, the numbers are shaping out where an extension, perhaps, may not be too difficult of a suggestion to different stakeholders. I guess what I'm wondering is, are you aware of any issues out there that may prevent some of the stakeholders from wanting to consider an extension of the current mechanism, any issues that may need to be worked through that could prevent that and instead make a full-blown cost of capital proceeding take place?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Brian, this is Kent. So as you alluded to the normal process would have us file a cost of capital application next spring and that would be for rates effective January 2017. And I think what you are alluding to, I think everybody knows that last year we and the other parties all agreed to extend the existing cost of capital as well as trigger mechanism by one year. And so the question is will that happen again this year. And I'd just say, we are open to exploring that again given that as you said forecast bond rates haven't changed all that much since the proceeding was originally litigated, but whether or not that occurs depends on the extent to which all the parties are able to reach agreement.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So, I guess at this point you're not aware of any specific issues that may cause one or two of the stakeholders to say, we really ought to revisit this despite the mathematics looking fairly similar versus last year?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Brian, if I were, I wouldn't be talking about it with investors.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Understood. And then lastly, there has been a lot of consolidation happening in the industry. If, Tony, you could give just your quick thoughts on consolidation, how you think about it in the industry here. A lot of your peers have been using their balance sheets and I think it's safe to say that the California utilities are in a much better balance sheet position than others. Just your latest thoughts there?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I mean generally we don't comment on specifics on M&A opportunities. I will say one interesting observation though is, everyone is buying a gas company, we've already got 4.5 million gas customers. I think we're in a pretty good shape.
Brian J. Chin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays. You may proceed.
Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. You mentioned that as you get out to 2017 and 2018 your forecast for rate base on – your forecast includes flat assumptions for the gas and electric transmission. Is there maybe, since you are going to update it at some point, is there a better modeling assumption that we might use? Or with those updates maybe get you to the higher end of rate base growth that you are thinking about?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent. We've just done that because it's a fairly mechanical way to do it, and we don't want to call future cases that we've not yet filed, so, but you can apply judgment to it, you can look at our historic track record, what we've done over the last few years, adjust that. Whatever you think is appropriate, we just try to keep it simple and objective when we present it to you for your consideration.
Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from the line of Michael Lapides.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my follow-up. Real quick, on the rate base chart, or exhibit, slide 12, that still excludes the incremental CWIP that actually generates some earnings. I think that is the number of around $1 billion, $1.7 billion, $1.8 billion, somewhere in that range. You have commented historically that, that earnings from CWIP, while not in rate base, would largely be offset by corporate costs that aren't recoverable in rates. Do you still see that trend or is there the potential to manage some of those corporate costs down over time?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent, again. No, I think nothing has really changed there. I think that's a reasonable assumption to make going forward. I think, I've said several times a lot of the stuff we do that is below the line is really important to the longer-term success of the company and our financials. It includes our advertising, a lot of our charitable contribution, just bread and butter for a utility, and we're going to continue to make those necessary investments.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Kent. Once again, congratulations.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you. Going back to the long-term outlook for CapEx and that discussion, what is the impact from SB 350? How long out and is that included in any kind of near-term CapEx or GRC? Just your thoughts around that.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, SB 350, really one of the primary components of it is the RPS requirements in the state. And generally, we have already been on track to meet the 33% RPS, this would now take us to 50% eventually. We do that primarily through long-term contracting. So it doesn't have a direct implication for our own CapEx, which are primarily our distribution and transmission businesses.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Although, I will add one place we may see some opportunities, is in additional transmission out there. We've been successful in the competitive transmission bidding process here in California in the last couple of years, we continue to intend to stay involved in that process. But all of that is outside any of the years that we've been showing on the slides, because recall that the current 33% is a 2020 objective. And so the new SB 350 requirements will start showing up in the 2020s and you'd see transmission in that timeframe. So, I think the only conclusion you can draw is given California's commitment to a clean energy environment, it's going to require the utilities to have continued investment to upgrade the system.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay, great. Thanks. And then, different subject, what is your appetite right now for ex-California, outside of California or unregulated type of investments? Obviously, the SolarCity moves you have made here seem to be a pullback on that front. What's your thoughts and appetites for that unregulated type of investment?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We continue to look at those opportunities. I think I've said this before, the California affiliate rules make it very difficult to start from scratch, because there is – it's very hard to take your utility expertise and without taking them away from the utility and moving into a totally separate company and they can't even talk to their colleagues back at the old business, it's hard to justify when we've got so many growth opportunities in the utility right now.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay, great. Appreciate the thoughts.
Operator:
Thank you. There are currently no additional questions waiting from the phone lines.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. This is Janet, again. I want to thank everyone for joining us and we hope you have a safe day. Thank you.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel
Analysts:
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Leslie Best Rich - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc. Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc. James D. von Riesemann - Mizuho Securities USA Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Feliks Kerman - Visium Asset Management
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Second Quarter Earnings Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portions of our call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. At this time, I would like to turn it over to our host, Janet Loduca. Thanks and enjoy your conference. You may proceed.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Great. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I'll remind you that our discussion today includes forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results, based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide presentation. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2014 Annual Report. And with that, I'll turn it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, thank you, Janet, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start by covering the leadership changes that we announced recently and also provide some regulatory updates. Chris will talk about operational results and Kent will cover our financials later. So, a couple weeks ago we announced that Geisha Williams and Nick Stavropoulos, will be assuming the roles of Presidents of Electric Operations and Gas Operations respectively effective August 17. First, I really do want to thank Chris for his leadership at PG&E. Chris has been a passionate sponsor of our efforts to improve the safety culture at PG&E. And since I arrived almost four years ago, he has been a great partner for me in improving PG&E's operations. So thank you Chris for all that you have done. Geisha Williams joined PG&E in 2007 from Florida Power & Light. And under her leadership, PG&E has dramatically improved its electric reliability while managing the increasingly complex demands in our group. Nick Stavropoulos joined PG&E in 2011 from National Grid and under his leadership PG&E has completed an unprecedented amount of work to improve the safety of our gas system and has employed new innovative technologies that are literally changing the industry. Geisha and Nick are both here with us today, and they'll be available to answer any questions that you've got. While we're proud of the progress we've made to date, we also know that we have more work to do. We remain focused on continuing to strengthen our safety culture, resolving the remaining San Bruno related proceedings, and rebuilding trust with our stakeholders, including the CPUC. We're also focused on planning for California's clean energy future, and we've had a number of significant developments on that front since our last call that I'd like to touch on now. Earlier, this month we filed our electric distribution resources plan. This plan outlined our strategy for continuing to enable California's ambitious environmental goals, by building a flexible, reliable grid that meets the growing demand for distributed generation, electric vehicles, energy efficiency and energy storage. We've been investing in grid modernization for several years now, and will include the next round of investments in our 2017 General Rate Case filing that will come in September. Earlier this month, the CPUC also approved changes to our residential rates that will reduce the number of tiers from 4 tiers to 2 tiers, decrease the differential between the tiers, and establish a $10 minimum bill for most customers. While this is an important first step, we believe that additional rate reform is critical to fully realize the state's objectives, and ensure that all customers are appropriately paying for the use of the electric grid. We were a little disappointed that the commission didn't adopt fixed charges, but we are encouraged that the final decision recognized the importance of cost-based rates to send the appropriate price signals. We'll be proposing additional enhancements in the future to bring us closer to that goal. We'll also be submitting our proposal for new net energy metering rates next week, which is another important component of aligning rates with costs. Solar is an essential part of California's clean energy future, but we need smart energy reform for it to grow sustainably. The CPUC also issued a revised schedule in our Gas Transmission and Storage rate case. We'll now have two separate decisions, one that decides what costs are authorized and then a second decision that decides how we will apply the $850 million San Bruno penalty for safety related work. And Kent is going to discuss the financial implications of that new schedule in just a minute. Finally, today we filed our TO17 rate case. Our request was about $300 million higher than TO16. So, with that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Great. Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. We had another strong quarter in operations. We continue to perform well in our public safety metrics, in fact we reduced the numbers of wires down and gas dig-ins across our system and we're responding to emergencies at an industry leading pace. Inline pipeline inspections and upgrades are a little behind due to permitting delays, but we anticipate catching up by the end of the year and Diablo Canyon continues to perform very well. You can see our overall performance on key metrics in the appendices. In May, we successfully conducted a two day large scale exercise to test our preparedness and response plans for a major earthquake. It was our most ambitious exercise to date with over 750 employees and nearly a dozen external stakeholders participating across our service territory. Exercises like these along with our many other emergency preparedness efforts help us to be ready to respond quickly and effectively when an event happens. With California in its fourth year of severe drought, our electric operations team has significantly enhanced our efforts to prevent wildfires. We're conducting daily aerial fire patrols across our service territory and we've partnered with federal and state agencies like CAL FIRE and the U.S. Forest Service to create more firebreaks, improve emergency response and fund the cameras that will help detect wildfires in remote locations. We're also continuing to manage water in our own hydro system to help meet the peak load this summer. In early July, the CPUC released the results of an independent report on the Fresno pipeline incident, which found that the pipeline ruptured when it was struck by third party construction equipment. The report also confirmed that the pipe met all industry specifications and that the construction activity significantly reduced the depth of soil around the pipeline. This incident highlights the importance of calling 811 before digging and we've been working hard to make sure all our customers are aware of this free service. We're continuing to cooperate with the CPUC in its ongoing investigation. And our thoughts remain with the victims and families of this accident. Finally, earlier this quarter, the National Transportation Safety Board announced that PG&E has successfully completed the tenth of 12 safety recommendations for the improvements we've made to the system that monitors and provides real-time data about our gas pipelines. The two remaining recommendations which involve strength testing and valve installation, are proceeding appropriately. And with that, I'll turn it over to Kent.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thank you, Chris. And good morning. I'll start with our quarterly results, which are summarized on slide five. Earnings from operations came in at $0.91 in the second quarter. GAAP earnings which include our items impacting comparability were $0.83. Our pipeline-related expenses totaled $15 million pre-tax or $9 million after tax, as shown in the table. This includes our costs to remediate encroachments on our pipeline rights of way and some remaining expense work for our Pipeline Safety Enhancement Plan. Our legal and regulatory-related expenses totaled $16 million pre-tax or $10 million after tax in the table. Here we have our costs for litigation and enforcement activities related to natural gas matters and regulatory communications. Fines and penalties for the second quarter totaled $75 million pre-tax, as shown in the table below. You can see the Q2 charge was for disallowed capital work coming out of the final penalty decision in the San Bruno investigations. Disallowed capital work will continue to be recorded as an item impacting comparability in future periods as the capital is spent. But disallowed expense work won't be reflected as an item impacting comparability until the revenues are disallowed in the gas transmission rate case. So the timing there will be linked to the final decision. Finally, as you can see in the table above, we received insurance recoveries during the quarter of $39 million pre-tax or $23 million after-tax in the table. This brings our total insurance recoveries for third-party claims to $505 million pre-tax. Slide six shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations and the key factors that take us from $0.69 in Q2 last year to $0.91 in Q2 this year. $0.21 of the increase was due to the 2014 General Rate Case decision, which you'll remember we didn't receive until Q3 of last year. In addition, $0.05 of the increase was due to growth in rate base earnings and $0.04 was associated with tax timing. We expect the tax timing to reverse to zero by year end. We also had $0.06 positive in miscellaneous smaller items. These factors were partially offset by $0.09 of lower cost recovery due to the timing of the gas transmission rate case. As you know, the revenue increase from a final decision in the case will be retroactive to January 1. There was also $0.03 attributable to the disposition of stock in SolarCity in Q2 last year. And $0.02 attributable to an increase in shares outstanding. That's it for our Q2 results. I'll now move on to our 2015 guidance summarized on slide seven. As Tony mentioned, the CPUC issued a revised schedule in the gas transmission rate case. Since it now appears likely that the case will not be resolved until 2016, we don't expect to be able to book additional gas transmission revenues this year. I indicated on our last call that not receiving a final rate case decision in 2015 would impact earnings from operations this year by about $0.60 per share. Accordingly, we're adjusting our guidance for 2015 earnings from operations to reflect this delay, which takes us to a range of $2.90 to $3.10 for this year. The prior range was $3.50 to $3.70. Since the final decision will be retroactive to January 1, 2015, this is just a timing issue. And next year we would expect to book incremental revenues for both 2015 and 2016. We plan to treat the 2015 amount as an item impacting comparability next year and the 2016 amount will be included in our operating results. The delay in the rate case decision affects two of the assumptions underlying our 2015 earnings guidance. So I want to just briefly touch on those and then we'll come back to the items impacting comparability. On slide eight, we've adjusted our 2015 CapEx for gas transmission given the delay in the case. We're now showing $650 million versus a previous range of $600 million to $800 million. We've also reduced our 2015 authorized rate base for gas transmission to $1.8 billion since the increase in authorized rate base won't occur until next year when we get a final decision. The other assumptions here are unchanged from last quarter. Moving to slide nine, the ranges for the items impacting comparability are also unchanged from last quarter with the exception of the fines and penalties, which we've reduced from roughly $1 billion to about $900 million for 2015. The delay in the gas transmission rate case means we'll not report disallowed expense work until next year when we get the decision. We previously had $160 million in 2015 guidance for that. Partially offsetting that change, we've increased our 2015 estimate for disallowed capital by about $50 million to $400 million. The net of these two changes is a reduction in 2015 fines and penalties of about $100 million. I also need to remind you here that our estimate does not include other potential fines and penalties such as any revenues disallowed in the gas transmission rate case as a penalty for ex parte communications. Finally in the table above, we've also updated it to reflect the receipt of the insurance recoveries that we booked in Q2. Slide 10 just shows you how you get from the roughly $900 million estimate for 2015 to the total $1.6 billion of fines and penalties coming out of the gas investigations. This table has been updated to reflect the timing changes I just covered. Moving on to slide 11, our total equity needs for 2015 remained unchanged at between $700 and $800 million. In the second quarter, we issued about $100 million of equity through our internal programs, which include our 401(k) and dividend reinvestment programs. And we expect to issue a total of roughly $300 million through these programs for the full year. We previously issued about $75 million through our continuous equity offering, leaving the remaining need for the year at about $300 million to $400 million, and that's unchanged from last quarter. Slides 12 and 13 just summarize our assumptions for CapEx and rate base through 2016. Other than the change to 2015 authorized rate base, which I've already covered, the numbers are unchanged from last quarter. With that, I'll stop here and we can open-up the lines for your questions.
Operator:
Our first question comes from the line of Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse. You may proceed.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Dan.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, just on the – just to make sure I had this right. So in 2016 you guys will not include the $0.60 in recurring numbers. So a 2016 estimate was recently published and what you're going to talk about then would look like some sort of a function of a return on rate base plus any tax benefits you guys get from the manufacturing deductions?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes, Dan. I think you have that correct. We just – we want to make sure that we're pulling out the 2015 amount as we think it makes next year more comparable.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then, on the – just on the timing of GT&S kind of if you look at the proceedings as laid out and where flex points or where debates are going to be, when do you guys anticipate us getting to a clean number? And when will you give guidance for 2016 in that context?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Hi, Dan. This is Dinyar Mistry, the Controller. I think, when we look at the procedural schedule, it seems that early 2016 maybe around the January timeframe is when we would expect to see the first decision and the second decision will probably follow maybe a couple of months or three months after that.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And when do you guys think about giving guidance around those numbers? So, when are you going to give 2016 guidance, I guess?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Don't know for sure, Dan, but on a normal schedule we probably do that in February when we announce year-end earnings.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Would you be comfortable doing that before GT&S is done?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, if the schedule ends up playing out as Dinyar just described, you would at least have the first part of the decision, which is authorized revenues, which you wouldn't really have it how they're treating all the fines and penalties, I think we could make our way through that.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Very good. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
So, when we think about the guidance origin for this year, very simply it's the not getting the revenues from the GT&S case offset by the tweaks and the timing on the fines and penalties to get to that new range, everything else is basically the same?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yes. I think that's pretty much it.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, great. The second question was on – you're not presuming any incremental equity need this year versus your last update, clearly the one big change is going to be a cash flow, deferral of recovery of these cash flows through these cases done, should we just assume your funding with short-term debt until you get the money in?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well Greg, this is Kent again. There's kind of two things that have happened in terms of a few factors that result in not really a material change in our equity needs. One is, you're right, the GT&S case has been delayed until early next year. But we weren't anticipating it to actually happen anyway until very late this year. So it really only affected our equity balances for a few months, this year. So moving it out of this year isn't a big 2015 impact on our equity. And then in the other direction of course, we're not expecting to have the charge for the disallowed expense work this year and previously, we were. So that actually helps the equity balances a little this year and the net of those two is not a significant change.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So the – and to the extent those cash flows are pushed out a few months you have obviously sufficient balance sheet capacity to fund that right?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, and there's really no cash flow impact this year, it will all be in the next year just in terms of the timing of when the actual decision is made and we start collecting the revenues through cash rates.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Gordon. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning, guys.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Quick one and just the pushback with the GT&S case change you're thinking at all Tony about timing for revisiting the dividend? And then just give us an update on that process?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Well, I mean, let me reiterate. I mean we know the dividend is very important, we've been focused on that. Obviously with the change in the timing of that case that does change things. Our commitment is to continue to figure out what would be an appropriate time to deal with the dividend, we're having ongoing discussions here internally, but I don't have a projection of exactly when that might be yet.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. But is it reasonable to expect it's more like a 2016 event now and then given more you've just said?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I think that's a reasonable assumption for you.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And then, just on the miscellaneous items in the quarter, I mean, it seems to add up to quite a big number. Was there anything particularly worth calling out?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah. Jonathan, this is Kent. The miscellaneous by definition usually ends up being lots of small items and some of them can be timing and some of them aren't necessarily timing. In Q2, we did have a couple of settlements with contractors, litigation settlements so that added to the quarter compared to what we would normally see, and then there are some smaller items in there too. And I would say, overall it's always hard for us to forecast miscellaneous by their very nature, but we expect we may have a few offsets in miscellaneous later this year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Great. Thank you, Kent. On the similar subject, you said you thought the tax item would reverse by the end of the year, would that be in Q3 and Q4 or sort of between the two quarters?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
This is Dinyar, Jonathan. They should reverse over the next set of quarters.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. As in the next – the next two quarters or is it some of it slip into next year?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
No, it should all reverse this year. So, the reason that we have it is that accounting rules require companies to use a consistent effective tax rate every quarter, but your income isn't consistent each quarter. And so, you have this timing issue that reverses itself out by the end of the year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you for the clarity.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Arnold. Our next question comes from the line of Leslie Rich with JPMorgan. You may proceed.
Leslie Best Rich - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning. I wondered if you could talk a bit about some of the rate design issues you mentioned, I know you've got a final decision on that did not allow an immediate fixed charge, but you said you were going to submit a new proposal for net metering, I wondered what that might look like?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I think the decision that came down moved this in the right direction cutting down the number of tiers. It did go with a minimum bill charge rather than a fixed charge. We, of course, had advocated for a fixed charge. But we're moving in the right direction. The next step will be a net energy meter rate filing. And in that filing, we're going to make sure that we underscore that we continue to support rooftop solar. We have the largest number of rooftop solar installations in the country. It's now over 175,000 installations. But we also need to keep investing in the grid. So we'll submit a proposal that will allow us to reinvest in the grid at the same time we're supporting rooftop solar. And that filing should be coming out in the next week or so.
Leslie Best Rich - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.:
And then, did you make a filing in July maybe you call it the Grid of Things, there's a bullet point there on sort of longer-term grid infrastructure improvement, and I think you said you would lump that in with your next rate case. Have you quantified that?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We haven't yet, I mean, our distribution resource plan filing kind of outlines our strategy on the grid. And as I think we said in prior calls, we've already made lots of investments starting with virtually 100% coverage on our automated meter reading program. And our next filing will have a substantial chunk of investment for continuing the transformation of the grid to a 21st Century grid. I can't really quantify how much of it is grid development versus how much of it is going to be routine maintenance of existing equipment yet.
Leslie Best Rich - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.:
But it's fair to say that spending would be 2017 and beyond?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes.
Leslie Best Rich - JPMorgan Investment Management, Inc.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Ms. Rich. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi, good morning. Just first on the equity issuance. So it seems like you've only done about a third of the equity for the year. Is there any reason that you kind of haven't done it more prorated? And how should we think about the way you're likely to do the $300 million to $400 million not through programs?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Steve, as you might imagine, I am reluctant to really comment a lot on what our equity plans are. I just don't think that's going to serve us well. So I will tell you, I'm very confident we have more than adequate tools and the amount that we need to raise this year is quite manageable.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And any more clarity on – I know this year there was a lot of that tax cash flow coming in. And is there any more sense on kind of tax cash flows in 2016 that you can provide us? Or at least are the cash flows that are coming this year going to reverse next year, going to stay stable or continue to be a positive?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Steve, I think you're referring to balancing account activities, which was one of many drivers maybe in our cash flows.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
That's correct.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
I don't really have anything to add to what was discussed on the last call since then. And I just continue to point out that our balancing accounts are very complex. It's very hard to look on our balance sheet and really decipher all the things that are going on because we have longer term balancing accounts and shorter term ones. Sometimes the trends have to do with prior years and then you're reversing them. Sometimes they have to do with what's going on in the current period and they amortize over different periods. So I just think it's going to be a very difficult path to try to do analytics to figure out how that drives our financing needs. And so I think that the easiest way to get to the big picture is to focus on year-over-year CapEx changes. And obviously, we've had the fines and penalties we're financing, and those are a few of the key drivers.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Last question is just for Tony. Obviously, you announced some management responsibility changes a few weeks ago. Could you maybe talk a little bit in context of Chris leaving, and then, I'm not sure you're going to be there till you're 100. So thoughts on kind of succession planning?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. When I came I said I thought it would be three years to five years. Obviously, with Chris' announcement, things have changed. What I am committed to is making sure that we have a strong leadership team in place. I think with the changes that we announced a few weeks ago. We've got some great leaders now in place going forward. But I'm committed to make sure that we've got a good plan. I continue to discuss that with our board. Plus my wife and I like it here. Sarah and I just bought a place here in San Francisco, which I've got to move into later this week, which I'm not looking forward to the move. But I'm committed to making sure that we've got strong leadership to continue the momentum we've got in place.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Fleishman. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS. You may proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning. It's Julien here.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hey, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So first question just going back to tax issues. In terms of the deductibility from any penalties, could you talk to some of the proposed state legislations specifically the state taxes?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Hi, Julien, this is Dinyar again. So, you're right that there was a proposal that was introduced in the California Legislature, I think it was in the last week of June, and what that would do would potentially disallow the deduction for the penalty for the San Bruno penalty for California tax purposes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Right. Do you have any sense of what that would be in terms of the total bill? I know that it's not the federal number, it's the state number, so it's also considerably smaller?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Yeah, yeah. So on a really high level, it's up to a $1.6 billion penalty; $300 million was a fine. So, that would not be deductible anyway, and our state tax rate is roughly 10%.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. So, it's fair to just take 10%?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
Yeah.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And then going back to Leslie's question and trying to get a little bit more of a holistic understanding on how you're thinking about net energy metering and compensation as we go into the second stage or second round here. Broadly, is the thought process here to bring down compensation to the solar sector in tandem with the cost structure declines that we're seeing? I'm just kind of getting a sense as to how you're thinking about at least structurally approaching the question? Would there be some kind of or is the thought process devising some kind of tracker to bring down NEM over time? I know you can't exactly say what the NEM rate would be, but just holistically how we think about that next year and in subsequent years?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Yeah, hi, this is Steve Malnight from the Regulatory Affairs team. I think, Tony talked a little bit about the approach on NEM, and I think you know it's important to recognize that the existing structure allows customers to get credits at a full retail rate. I think it's been very successful in California in helping the solar market grow and advance. And as we now look forward, our goal would be to better balance both ensuring we have sustainable opportunities for solar to grow in the state, which I think is an option customers want and that we think is a vital part of meeting the energy goals in the state, and at the same time, start to shift that – shift the way we structure our compensation for NEM customers. So we'll be filing an updated tariff in the new proposal, I think we'll see a lot of proposals from multiple parties and the commission will work through that and make that decision and we'll participate in that proceeding.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
But nothing necessarily formulaic.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
I think, we'll have to see how all the different proposals come out, I think there will be a lot and there will be opportunities for the commission to look for how we make changes now and into the future.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Weinstein. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Congrats on a good quarter. Real quick question for you – just one on slide 12 related to CapEx. I want to make sure I understand this, the $5.5 billion in 2015, and the range you give in 2016, that includes the funds you'll spend the $400 million in 2015, and $300 million in 2016, that will get disallowed?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Michael, this is Kent; that's correct.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Second, any update on the insurance recoveries in terms of what you think you might be able to recover or what you've requested for recovery versus what you've recovered to date. I'm just trying to kind of think about that from a cash on cash impact?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Michael, we're not totally done with insurance recoveries, but the vast majority of the claims are resolved at this point.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And one final one, when you get the GT&S case, and we get to February, at the yearend earnings call and you think about giving 2016 guidance, is your thought process you'll give a multiyear view at that stage?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Michael, we're still working through that on our end exactly what we're going to do for guidance next year.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Once again, congrats.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Lapides. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Stephen.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Wanted to touch on the longer term in terms of you think about your total growth outlook in spending. You obviously laid out a lot of interesting information in your filing about the long-term resource need. At a high level as you think about the growth outlook that that provides you, how do you think about that compared to historical levels of spend? What could be the key sort of up and down drivers that could take you lower than you expect or higher than you expect when we think about it's a little challenging given all the possible areas of spend in the future, given all the greatest change, I'm just curious if you could speak to that at a high level.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, as Kent said, we're not giving future guidance yet. But I think, it's fair to say and we said this in the past that our capital investments going forward will be higher than our historic levels and consistent with what we've had in the last two or three years where we've been investing in our electric grid. We've been investing in our gas system. And while there are obviously going to be changes as we see particularly the Grid of Things develop and how fast we need to invest in the grid. But I think you can – you will see a significant amount of capital investment going forward. You can see that slide12 shows our estimate for 2016. Beyond that, I think we're going to see some things that are comparable to it and we'll talk as we get further out as to more specifics.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. And then shifting over to solar and thinking about the outlook there, as you've looked at bill increases over time, what have you been thinking of in turn as you think about the changes to your customers' bills, what kind of growth in solar do you expect and what have you factored into your thinking on where the bill goes, just given obviously, that there is a shift in costs from the solar customers to the remaining customers?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well let me start off by saying, one of the key focus areas that I've had since I've been here. I talked about safety, affordability, clean, safety, reliability, clean energy and affordability. And so, we have a very aggressive continuous improvement program in place and our teams are delivering on that to mitigate the cost of the investment. But obviously, given the capital investments that we're making we continue to see upward movement on our rates. But we're sensitive to the subsidies that I think the net energy metering proposal that we'll make, we'll try and bring more in line the amount we're paying for the solar that we're receiving, in line with the value to the rest of the customers so that it reduces the subsidies. But we continue to see very healthy growth of solar in California, both at the utility scale and at the rooftop distributed generation to solar scale. Steve, I don't know if you want to add any more about, to that.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Tony I'll just say again, I think that we've recognized throughout that solar is a vital part of achieving a lot of goals that California has for our energy policy. We're supportive of that and as we do look at rate changes be it in the residential rates or in the NEM proceeding, one of the goals is to make sure that solar can continue to grow sustainably. And I think that's the goal and that's something we see going into the future.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Understood. And it sounds like you do continue to forecast in a fairly rapid growth in solar as you think about the overall customer bill, but obviously you're going to try that modify how things are working to make it more rational and have costs bear things appropriately for solar?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, that's correct. And then as I said before, we've actually made progress on the rate structure. So reducing the number of tiers from four to two is helpful and we'll continue to keep working the rate issue because I think everyone agrees that we need to get to more cost base rates, in fact in the commission decision, they reaffirmed the belief in cost based rates to just – we may have disagreements over how fast we get there.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Byrd. Our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Bernstein Research. You may proceed.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi. I'd like to also follow up on some of the previous questions. Especially what is your target for annual increases in the per kilowatt-hour rate and then the average customer bill. You have a rate of increase relative to the rate of inflation that you would like to achieve?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Our target over the long-term is to track the rate of inflation for our rate increases. Obviously it's chunky and we're on a three-year rate cycle with our GRC, our General Rate Case and so you tend to see a spike up. And then, it slows down and then you get the next filing. We will make our next GRC filing here this fall. And that won't go into effect for more than a year. So you see those kind of bumps. But our long-range target is to get that those rate increases around the rate of inflation over a longer period of time.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then, also following up on the prior discussion of the net energy metering case, would it be possible for you to maybe just sketch out the positions that you believe will be put forward in that case? I'm interested in your views, for example, whether you believe that they'll be focused solely on a net energy metering construct? Or whether parties in the case will look to move in the direction of a value for energy supplied? Whether others will look for a feed-in tariff? Can you perhaps discuss where you think the different proposals will fall out?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I'm reluctant to speculate on what others are doing. I think we'll probably see all of those things included in the various filings. As I said before, our focus is going to be on the value we get for electricity that is being supplied to us and getting it more aligned with the value to other customers. But I'm sure we're going to see a range of proposals from the various parties. But I can't speculate on exactly which ones.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you, Mr. Wynne. Our next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays. You may proceed.
Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. Just a follow-up on slide 10. You talked about essentially moving $100 million of shareholder impact is from the disallowed capital and pipeline safety expenses out into future periods. Is it possible to lay out how that would track 2016 and beyond?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent. A you know, because we discussed it on the last call, all of our estimates here about timing and the actual costs we're incurring, they're based on estimates because the PUC has not yet decided, specifically, which costs will account as safety related. So we've been using our best estimates of which categories, and this chart reflects that. And based on our estimates, we would expect that most of what you see there in estimated future periods is what would actually happened in 2016. Again, whether or not it plays out that way will largely depend on the final PUC determination of which ones count.
Gregg Gillander Orrill - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jim von Riesemann with Mizuho. You may proceed.
James D. von Riesemann - Mizuho Securities USA Inc.:
Hi, good morning, everyone. A simple question, following up on the dividend. In 2016, do you think your GAAP earnings per share will exceed your current dividend level?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Jim, this is Kent. We're not giving you a GAAP guidance for 2016. So you can do that calculation yourself.
James D. von Riesemann - Mizuho Securities USA Inc.:
I tried. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. You may proceed.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just a couple of quick questions. On the felony case, there's a story about you guys making efforts under statute of limitations, basically that you guys are arguing that under the statute of limitation, the whole bunch of these charges don't apply – or violations. Could you elaborate on that and how much that might change the outcome of the course of the case if you guys succeed with that?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I'll let Hyun Park comment in a minute. But between now and of course the scheduled trial date is next spring. And obviously, those sorts of things can change. But between now and then, you're going to see a lot of legal wrangling and the lawyers and the number of different motions filed, but Hyun, you want to comment on this one that we recently filed?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Sure. this past Monday we filed a motion based on statute of limitation, and our request was that seven counts out of 28 counts should be dismissed on statute of limitation grounds. And the seven counts all relate to record keeping. And the motion is publicly available, and if you'd like a copy, we'd happy to send that to you.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. But then I mean in terms of – is there any way of estimating what the impact would be if that position was taken, one-third of the request or maybe a little less would be taken away?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
So if we were to succeed, it's seven counts out of 28 counts that would be dismissed.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And the penalty, its $0.5 million per count.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I got you. And then the second thing that I'd like to ask is, in the Safe Harbor disclosure, I saw a new bullet point, at least I don't remember seeing it before about the impact of the reductions in customer demand for electricity and natural gas have on the utility's ability to recover investments through rates and to earn its operating ROE et cetera. Is there any reason why that showed up this quarter? Is there anything you could point to that, why this is now an issue?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I think that's a trend we've been seeing that electricity sales continue to be soft, particularly here in California we've been so successful with our energy efficiency programs. Of course now we're getting a large number of rooftop solar installations that are starting to get to be more than just trivial numbers, and we've got 175,000 of them. And as we look ahead, we don't see electricity growth getting back to our historic levels. And what that means because here in California, of course in that we're fully decoupled, our costs stay the same to operate the grid, and the risk that we referred to here is that at some point you're going to be spreading those costs over a smaller number of kilowatt hours. I mean that's precisely why we're looking at pushing hard on the rates reform, we really need a 21st century rate design not a 19th century or 20th century. And we thought given all of those trends, it's appropriate to add that as a caveat, but there is no one thing that contributed to it.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. So, it's just, still recognizing it, trying to get it recognized for some time, but like for whatever reason you guys decided to include it this time, correct?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. I mean the various factors have been developing and we just decided it's probably appropriate to start including this.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. And then finally, there is a bunch of legislative initiatives concerning CPUC forum, the administration of energy efficiency, you guys know that more than I do and I won't list them. But are there any – is there one or two bills that you think are particularly are of significance for investors that we should be perhaps paying more attention to or focusing on with respect to this or is there anything you'd like to comment on in terms of sort of the political environment that sort of, that's separate from you guys to a certain degree now at this point. It's not – it's migrated from San Bruno, et cetera, to other things. Just in general, I mean is there any legislative initiative or changes at the CPUC you think we should be thinking about?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I've learned in my four years not to predict what happens here in this horse race to the end of the legislative session. You can never tell exactly what's going to come out of it. But the one that we're really focused on is a bill called SB 350, which is focusing on the renewable portfolio standard issues. And looking at whether we increase the renewable portfolio standard to 50%, we are very actively involved in those discussions. We're working with all of the legislative leaders to see what comes out of that. And that's one I think you could be taking a look at as having some impact. We are going to hit the 33% renewable standard by 2020. And we know we can go above that 33%. It's a matter of how fast we get there and also how much it would cost to get there. And we're actively involved in those discussions.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. But on the CPUC reform legislation or efforts thereof is there any thoughts about what 660 or 825 might or might not mean?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I wouldn't want to handicap any of them right now.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks so much.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. You may proceed.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you. On the transmission side, in the TO-16 in that settlement, is there anything in that settlement that would lead you to believe that it wouldn't be a rubberstamp type of approval from FERC anything debatable in there?
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
This is Steve Malnight again from Regulatory Affairs. We feel it's a good settlement with multiple parties. We submitted that to FERC and we'll just have to see how FERC processes that but.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
I think we have good experience with FERC approving settlements.
Steven E. Malnight - Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Yeah.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. And then just in general for TO17 and even perhaps TO16 amendment, what's the risk of an ROE cut like we've seen in some other transmission areas?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, we are just filing TO17 today. We're requesting $10.96 that includes a 50 basis point adder in our request. And we have to go through the proceedings.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Great. Fair, thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Feliks Kerman with Visium. You may proceed.
Feliks Kerman - Visium Asset Management:
Hi, good morning. My questions were previously answered. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are currently no additional questions waiting from the phone lines.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right, great. Thank you, everyone. Appreciate your participation today and have a safe day. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for attending today's conference. This now concludes our call. Thank you, and enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller
Analysts:
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC Brian J. Chin - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Travis Miller - Morningstar Research John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.)
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Q1 2015 Earnings Call. All lines will be muted during the presentation portion of the call, with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end. I would like to introduce your hostess, Ms. Janet Loduca. You may proceed.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Monica. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I'll remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2014 Annual Report. With that, I'll turn it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Janet, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to start with some opening remarks, and then turn it over to Chris and Kent to provide more detail on both operational and financial issues. As you know, we received a final penalty decision in the gas transmission pipeline investigations earlier this month, which is a significant milestone. Following the San Bruno accident, we worked hard to do the right thing for the victims, their families and the community of San Bruno. We've dedicated ourselves to becoming the safest and most reliable utility in the country. We've been working to build a culture across the company that supports this mission, and we've completed an unprecedented level of work to improve the safety of our systems, much of it funded by our shareholders. So although the final penalty assessed by the Commission is the largest in state history and certainly one of the largest in the country, we've decided not to appeal. We just don't feel that prolonging the proceeding is in anyone's interest. As we move forward, I can assure you that the lessons from San Bruno will continue to guide us. The San Bruno accident has changed the way we look at everything, from the way we plan what work we do to the way we execute and document work in the field. Safety starts at the top. It also requires the unequivocal commitment of every employee. My management team, our employees and the unions who represent them have all made that commitment, and safety has been at the heart of our decisions and actions over the last several years. I want to acknowledge that we still have a number of proceedings outstanding. On the legal front, a trial date in the federal criminal case has been set for March 8, 2016. As you know, state and federal prosecutors have been investigating potential ex parte communications with the CPUC as well. There are also still several investigations at the Commission, including a new investigation of our safety culture that President Picker announced at the last Commission meeting. And in fact, we welcome a conversation about safety at PG&E. We're proud of the work we've done to date and we know we still have a lot of work to do to re-earn the trust of our customers and the Commission. Over the past several years, we've hired some of the best experts in the country to help guide our efforts. Adding to that list, this spring, we announced that we've hired Julie Kane as our new Chief Ethics and Compliance Officer, reporting directly to me. Julie has deep compliance experience, largely in the highly regulated pharmaceutical industry, and her mandate is to work with our Board of Directors and our leadership team to build a best-in-class compliance program. As Chris will discuss, we had another solid quarter in our operations. We're in the third year of a rigorous risk assessment program that we used to develop our five-year operational plan. And I've been really pleased to see that these plans become more robust every year. And we continue to see strong opportunities for growth as we work to build a better California. In both gas and electric operations, we'll continue to upgrade the system with a focus on reducing risk and enhancing safety and reliability through physical improvements like replacing pipes and wires and using technology to respond to our customers' changing needs. We're also working on an integrated clean energy plan, which we believe will offer strong support for Governor Brown's vision for reducing carbon emissions. In the coming years, we expect to see continued investment opportunities to support the interactive Grid of Things. This will facilitate the state's increasing reliance on intermittent renewables, electric vehicles, demand-side management tools and energy storage. We have a number of proceedings pending at the Commission to address these changes to the electric grid, and you can expect to see more about this in the future. So with that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my remarks with an update on our operations, and then touch on some additional regulatory developments. I'm going to start with safety, which is fundamental to the work that our crews do every day. Over the past few years, we've worked to create an environment where all employees feel comfortable speaking up when something doesn't look right or they identify a potential safety risk. We were gratified to see that this was one of the areas where we received the most positive feedback in our employee survey last year. By encouraging this "find it and fix it" mindset and recognizing employees who do speak up or stop jobs when safety is a concern, we're identifying and addressing issues early. We measure ourselves on a set of safety metrics associated with both public and employee safety, and you can see several of those in our appendix in the slide deck. For example, we target responding to emergency gas calls within 21 minutes. During the first quarter, we had responders on site within an average of less than 20 minutes. That's a level of performance toward the very top of the industry. On the electric side, we target improvement every year in the number of sustained outages caused by downed wires. In the first quarter of this year, our results showed a nearly 25% improvement. Over the past five years, safety metrics have been an increasing component of our variable compensation plan. In gas operations, we continue to do significant work on our pipeline system, testing, replacing and automating components. For several years, we have been diligently addressing the recommendations made by the NTSB following the San Bruno accident. The NTSB has closed 9 of the 12 recommendations. The remaining three recommendations, which involve strength testing, valve installation and control room procedures, are longer-term multi-year efforts, and they continue to be on track. In electric operations, we continue to see strong reliability performance, with our customers experiencing fewer and shorter outages. And the California ISO awarded us two of the three competitive transmission projects we submitted bids for last year, both of which are in our service territory. As California enters its fourth year of drought, we're working hard to help the state meet this challenge by reducing water usage at our own facilities, encouraging customers to conserve by offering rebates for more efficient washers and agricultural pumps. We're stepping up our vegetation management activities to mitigate wildfire risk and improve access for firefighters, and we're managing water in our own hydro system to help meet the peak load this summer. Shifting to regulatory matters, as Tony mentioned, the Commission issued a $1.6 billion final penalty decision in the gas transmission pipeline investigation, and Kent will take you through the specific components of that in a minute. The Commission also announced two new investigations, one on regulatory communications and one on our safety culture. The work we've undertaken to improve our safety culture over the past 4.5 years has been informed by significant benchmarking and input from experts from the outside, and we look forward to the opportunity to share our progress with the Commission. Moving to the Gas Transmission and Storage rate case, we completed hearings in March. PG&E presented a strong case informed by a detailed risk assessment of the assets across our system. The next steps are opening briefs, which will be filed today, and then reply briefs on May 20. The current schedule calls for a final decision in the rate case in August of 2015, with revenues retroactive to January 1. It's unclear at this point how the final penalty decision will impact this schedule. Last week, we received a proposed decision in the Residential Rate Reform proceeding at the Commission. The proposed decision acknowledges the need for fundamental rate reform and recommends reducing residential tiers from four to two over the next few years. However, we were disappointed that it failed in the near-term to adopt monthly charges to recover fixed costs. Fixed charges are a common element of many utilities' rates, and we continue to believe they can be implemented with minimal impact to customers and that the time is right to adopt them in California. We'll be filing comments on the proposed decision in May. And finally, as we look forward, in September of this year we'll be filing our next General Rate Case, which will set forth our plans for gas and electric distribution and generation from 2017 through 2019. So with that, I'll turn it over to Kent.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks, and good morning. Today I plan to cover our quarterly results, including the impact of the final penalty decision in the gas transmission pipeline investigation. I'll walk you through all of that, and then I'll spend some time on our outlook for 2015. First, our quarterly results, which are summarized on slide five. Earnings from operations came in at $0.87 for the quarter. GAAP earnings including our items impacting comparability came in at $0.06. Obviously, our items impacting comparability drove much of the story for the quarter, so let me go through those. Our pipeline related expenses came in at $17 million pre-tax, or $10 million after tax, as shown in the table. And here we've included our costs to remediate encroachments on our pipeline rights of way and some remaining expense work for our Pipeline Safety Enhancement Plan. Our legal and regulatory expenses were $14 million pre-tax, or $8 million after tax, in the table. These include costs incurred in connection with litigation and enforcement activities related to natural gas matters and regulatory communication. Fines and penalties for the quarter totaled $553 million, as shown in the table below. I'll walk you through the components of that. First, the $300 million fine payable to the state resulted in a $100 million accrual in Q1. This is because we previously took a $200 million charge in 2011. Second, the $400 million customer bill credit was fully accrued in Q1. This reflects our obligation now to provide a credit to customers in February 2016. Third, the Q1 impact of the shareholder-funded safety improvements was a $53 million charge for disallowed capital, and I'm going to take a moment to explain that figure. As you know, the final penalty decision calls for shareholders to fund $850 million of safety improvements to be determined in our 2015 Gas Transmission and Storage rate case. This will consist of about $160 million of expense work and about $690 million of capital work. We expect to the CPUC to reduce the authorized revenues in the gas transmission rate case for these disallowed costs. In Q1, you see nothing here for disallowed expense work. This is because the item impacting comparability for the expense work will occur as the revenue is disallowed, not as the expenses are incurred. When we receive the final decision in the gas transmission rate case, we expect to book revenues retroactive to January 1, and the impact of the revenue disallowance will be reflected as an item impacting comparability at that time. What you do see here is a $53 million charge for disallowed capital work. The item impacting comparability for capital occurs as the capital is incurred and written off. I know that's complicated, so I'll reiterate it. Disallowed expense work will show up as an item impacting comparability when the revenues are disallowed in the gas transmission rate case. Disallowed capital work will show up as an item impacting comparability when the capital is spent. One more thing to keep in mind; the CPUC has not yet determined which costs will count towards the $850 million of shareholder-funded safety work, so we've estimated which capital expenditures incurred during the quarter we think will qualify. Once eligibility is determined in the gas transmission rate case, we'll true up any differences as necessary. Slide 6 shows our quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations. As you can see, we're going from $0.54 in Q1 last year to $0.87 in Q1 this year, and there are a number of factors. The largest impact, $0.21, is due to the 2014 General Rate Case decision, which we didn't receive until August last year. The impact includes both higher cost recovery as well as the tax benefits associated with repairs. In addition, $0.05 of the Q1 increase was due to growth in rate base earnings, and another $0.05 because we had a nuclear refueling outage in Q1 of last year, but not this year. There were $0.04 associated with tax timing. We expect that to net to zero by year end. You also see $0.03 for the disposition of the remaining SolarCity shares, and miscellaneous of about $0.05. These positive factors were partially offset by $0.08 of lower cost recovery due to the timing of the Gas Transmission rate case. The case covers costs for work we previously included as items impacting comparability, such as hydrostatic testing and integrity management. Until we are authorized revenues in the Gas Transmission rate case, this work will now reduce earnings from operations. When we receive a final decision in the case, the revenue increase will be retroactive to January 1. And then finally, we had $0.02 for higher shares during the quarter. That completes my summary of the Q1 results, and I'd now like to move on to our outlook going forward. The final penalty decision resolved a significant uncertainty for the company, particularly with respect to the fines and penalties to be borne by shareholders and our associated financing needs. Therefore, today we are providing guidance for 2015 earnings from operations of $3.50 to $3.70 per share. I want to spend some time going through the key assumptions underlying our guidance, which are shown on slide 7, and this should look familiar to you. Starting in the upper left, you see that we're still assuming capital expenditures of roughly $5.5 billion this year, consistent with our last call. In the upper right, you see that our estimate of weighted average authorized rate base is still about $31 billion. We've actually adjusted the gas transmission range down by about $200 million to reflect the estimated 2015 impact of the capital disallowance in the final penalty decision. Remember, this is average rate base for the year, so you only see about half of the full year impact of the disallowance. In the lower left, you see there are no changes to our assumptions regarding authorized return on equity and equity ratio. At the bottom right of the slide, we list factors we believe will affect 2015 earnings from operations. Our objective continues to be to earn our authorized return on rate base for the enterprise as a whole plus the net impact of the factors listed here. The first bullet under the Gas Transmission and Storage rate case highlights a key assumption underlying our guidance; namely, that we receive a reasonable decision in the case, and that it is issued before the end of the year. The current schedule calls for a final decision in August, but the judge has yet to determine how to address the shareholder-funded safety improvements mandated in the final penalty decision, and we don't know how that could impact the schedule. If we do not receive a final decision in the Gas Transmission rate case before year end, we would not record the incremental revenue for 2015 until next year. If that were to occur, we estimate that it would reduce this year's earnings from operations by roughly $0.60 per share. The second bullet under the rate case is the reminder that we've not sought recovery of certain corrosion and strength testing work in 2015 and beyond, and we previously indicated that these expenses should average roughly $50 million annually over the three-year period, although the amount may vary year to year. Next is the tax benefits associated with the federal repairs deduction. Last year, the net impact from this item was $0.24, and we expect it to be a similar order of magnitude this year. After that are the incentive revenues for things like our customer energy efficiency program, and the impact of monetizing the remaining SolarCity shares, which occurred in Q1. And finally, like last year, we expect earnings on construction work in progress to be roughly offset by below-the-line costs such as advertising, charitable contributions, environmental costs and so forth. Slide 8 summarizes our overall guidance. At the top, you see our 2015 guidance for earnings from operations of $3.50 to $3.70 per share. Guidance for our items impacting comparability is shown below that, and is broken down into the three categories. We've got more detail on these on slide 9, so let's go there now, and I'll start at the top. You can see that we're reaffirming the estimated range for pipeline-related expenses of $100 to $150 million. We're also reaffirming the estimated range for legal and regulatory-related expenses of $25 to $75 million. Next, we're establishing an estimate of roughly $1 billion in 2015 for fines and penalties associated with the final decision in the gas transmission pipeline investigations. You can see the key components in the table below. The first two, the fine payable to the State and the customer bill credit, were accrued in the first quarter. We estimate that charges for disallowed capital work will come to about $350 million for the year, roughly half of the total disallowed capital. We also believe we'll see the full $160 million of disallowed revenues for expense work in 2015, assuming we receive a final decision in the Gas Transmission rate case before year-end. This estimate does not include potential fines and penalties in the future, such as any revenues disallowed in the Gas Transmission rate case as a penalty for ex parte communications. Slide 10 shows you how to get from this $1 billion estimate for 2015 to the total $1.6 billion of fines and penalties coming out of the gas investigations. Going from left to right, you see the costs incurred prior to this year, the estimated impact for 2015, and then finally, the costs we expect to incur in future periods. The future items consist of charges for the disallowed capital next year as well as remedies specified in the final decision – final penalty decision. Moving on to slide 11, we are now estimating our total equity needs for 2015 to be between $700 and $800 million. This range is consistent with the guidance and assumptions I've walked you through this morning. It compares with our prior estimate of $400 to $600 million, which of course did not include the impact of the fines and penalties coming out of the gas investigation. As the slide indicates, the fines and penalties clearly drive up our equity needs for the year. Going in the other direction though, our overall cash flows are a bit stronger due to items such as balancing account activity and timing of expenditures during the year. This has mitigated some of our equity need for 2015. Keep in mind that we typically issue about $300 million annually using our internal programs – our 401(k) and dividend reinvestment programs. In addition, we issued $75 million in the first quarter using our continuous equity offering, or dribble program. That would leave our remaining equity needs for the year at roughly $300 million to $400 million, and we're currently evaluating options for that. By the way, we've updated the equity factors slide in the appendix to align with the components of the final penalty decision. Slides 12 and 13 summarize our assumptions for CapEx and rate base through 2016. The CapEx numbers are the same you've seen before, and you can see that we expect 2016 to look fairly similar to 2015, depending primarily on the outcome of the Gas Transmission rate case. The authorized rate base numbers have been adjusted to reflect the capital disallowance resulting from the final penalty decision. The impact on 2016 average rate base is a reduction of about $500 million. Our average rate base is expected to grow to right around $33 billion in 2016, and the adjustment for the final penalty decision results in an 8% CAGR over 2014 as compared to 9% previously. We plan to provide you with CapEx and rate base numbers beyond 2016 once we file our 2017 General Rate Case this fall. With that, I'll stop here, and we'll now open the lines for your questions.
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Steve.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Hey, I guess this is for Kent. So, on the equity issuance needs and specifically these cash flows from balancing accounts and timing, is there any way to kind of give us a sense of how much that lowered the equity need? And do those essentially kind of normalize back in future years so that – thus there's kind of like an equity need for it later on?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, Steve, and let me get to that. Let me just make sure everybody's got the overall picture clearly, which is that the range is higher than we previously said because of the impact of the final penalty decision, but these other factors, mainly cash flows, have somewhat mitigated the overall increase. And our cash flows have improved somewhat, and those do reduce our financing requirements. And really, a key factor is within our balancing account activities, and in particular, our energy procurement costs, which are lower primarily due to lower gas prices. They've stayed very low this year, lower than was reflected in previous expectations. And then the other thing is really kind of timing of our CapEx and our other expenditures. And together, those have really improved the cash flow forecast and reduced our requirement. Those will essentially normalize over time and play out over what is usually a several year period, particularly balancing account stuff gets trued up usually over a several year period.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Maybe kind of asking the question then a different way, is there a way to get a sense of, if you look at the totality of the $1.6 billion and didn't focus on the exact timing of the equity needs, but just at overall what the equity need would be to fund the $1.6 billion?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, the key thing I would rely on is slide 20 that has our equity factors. I think you'll be able to essentially take the components in the final penalty decision and translate them into financing requirements. And I'll just say, we haven't provided guidance for equity issuance beyond this year, and I don't plan to today, but I'll kind of – I can give you some observations about it overall. I think you know our equity needs are a function of a lot of variables in any one period, but two key ones are our capital expenditure levels and then our unrecovered costs and penalties, and that latter one can affect both our capital structure and our cash flow. And so it can trigger equity needs at different times, and that's really what this slide 20 helps you sort through. In terms of those two factors, I'll just make the observation on the CapEx front we expect 2016 to be pretty comparable to 2015, and you have those numbers. In terms of the penalties, we estimate that about two-thirds of our equity needs associated with the final penalty decision will be addressed this year as compared to next year, and you should be able to derive that using the equity factors that we've put in slide 20. The only other thing I'll say, I'll just remind you that all of this depends on how the disallowed safety-related expenditures end up being treated in the Gas Transmission rate case, and we just won't know that for a while yet.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. One other question, I guess maybe more for Tony. Just the – there was a lot of commentary when the final San Bruno order came out about issues with management and whether the company should stay as one company; should the gas business be split. Anything – takeaways that you might have from that? And also, I'd just like any comments on just clarifying what happened with this – the fire that occurred in Fresno, and just clarifying whether you're seeing anything within your operations that concern you about that.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, let me take the first piece, and I'll let Chris talk about the Fresno event. So with respect to the first issue, the commentary around the issuance of the OII, clearly it tells us we have a lot of work to do to build trust and a relationship at the Commission. And we've had restrictions placed on us, but it's our intent to have the maximum amount of communications with the Commission at all levels that are appropriate, consistent with all of the restrictions. And that's one of the things we know we need to work on. We're proud of the work we've done, and we think we need to spend more time sharing some of the things that we've done, and time will tell whether we're able to develop that sort of trusting relationship. With that, let me ask Chris to comment on the incident that occurred in Fresno.
Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Yeah, hi, Steve. First of all, our hearts are out for the victims – or the folks that were injured there, and we always are concerned about making sure that we're doing what we can to increase our public safety. Obviously, we did not have anybody that was on-site when the accident occurred, and so we don't know exactly what happened, but we do know some things. First of all, we do know that there was no 811 call made for that area where work was being done. We do know that there were a couple pipeline markers in place right around where the accident occurred. We do know that there was earth-moving construction equipment that was present at the time of the incident. Also, we know that we've surveyed that area several times over the last several months. We do it about every two weeks, both with walking by and flying over, and in fact, we had photos from the day before when we had last surveyed that, and did not see any construction going on at that time. So we've been – worked with the CPUC, who is the lead regulatory agency on this item and on the investigation as to what happened, and they've authorized us to hire Exponent, who is a third party, to perform a thorough analysis of the damaged pipe so that we can determine exactly what did happen there, and that'll be available in the next month or so. So that's where we're at with that.
Steven Isaac Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse. You may proceed.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Morning, guys. Just following up on Steve's equity questions, but if we – obviously, timing will have an effect on this in the balancing accounts and that sort of thing, but should we assume that you're going to target something like a 52%, or close to a 52% equity ratio at corporate over time?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Dan, this is Kent. Yeah, that is our requirement is a 52% minimum equity, common equity ratio at the utility. And there isn't a whole lot at the corporate level, so I think that's an appropriate assumption.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So calibrating that way will probably help us get to the answer. Okay. Thank you. And then, I guess just with the...
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Dan, just one other thing. Just remember, when you do the calculations, you exclude short-term debt. That's not included as part of the authorized capital structure.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Right. Thank you. I guess, next question, I guess now that San Bruno is resolved, the dividend hasn't been addressed in an awfully long time. Tony, how are you going to plan to have that conversation with the Board, and what kind of advice are you going to give them as you go into that next meeting?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, we obviously recognize the dividend is an important piece of how shareholders value us, and it's my intention to start having those discussions with our Board. And as I said in the past, my focus is to get our payout ratio in line with those of our peers. Obviously, we'll have to talk about the timing with our Board, but we're going to be starting those discussions. It will take some time to take all the variables into account, but we understand that's very important.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. So does that mean it – I guess you have a May Board meeting. Does that conversation now start now that this is behind you?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, I'm not going to go into the details of our agenda for our Board meetings, but I think it's fair to say this will be one of our priorities to discuss.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And I guess just one last question. When you guys file the GRC, the next GRC, how will you guys incorporate the Grid of Things-type of spending priorities in that budget? Will they be included in at that point in time, or do you think you need to see more clarity after the July 1 filing before you start to put them into a formal capital program?
Christopher P. Johns - President, Pacific Gas & Electric Co.:
Dan, this is Chris. We will start that process. We are doing our annual planning process which is a look out for five years, and so there's some beginning of that spend during that five year plan on the Grid of Things, and that will feed into what we'll have in the GRC. I don't think in this GRC we see some huge explosion of investments there, but you'll start to see some investments in some of the ideas. Don't forget, we've already made huge investments in our Grid of Things with our SmartMeter program and with a lot of the switches, the Cornerstone program, a lot of that has already laid out the foundation for where we're going to go with it.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. You may proceed.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Thanks. Good morning. So, just reviewing your commentary earlier on how we think about equity, if I look at page 10, I look at the different line items, what's been previously incurred versus estimated for 2015 versus estimated for future periods, and then I look at page – I believe it was page 20, and I use the equity factors, that should get me to what the equity needs are in estimated 2015 and beyond, correct?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, Greg, this is Kent. I think that's the best way to go.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So when I do that, I get the difference between what you're issuing in equity on the margin today versus your prior disclosure is smaller than that number, so presumably, the rest of that cash flow is coming in from the reversal and balancing accounts and other cash flows, correct?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Those are the two primary drivers that I've articulated on the call, so I could see how you come to that conclusion.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. I just wanted to make sure my algebra was right and there wasn't some other factor to consider. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. You may proceed.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Hey, good morning. Just – I feel bad not asking an equity question. If I just look at what your CapEx forecast, I think that's the biggest driver in your equity needs, the CapEx forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are near identical. Is it reasonable to assume the range that you gave not including the San Bruno fine is a reasonable gauge of what your equity needs would be, you know, a $5.5 billion CapEx in 2016?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Anthony, this is Kent. I don't want to get into providing guidance for 2016, and so I'm a little tentative about how to respond to that. But I indicated before on one of the earlier questions that the CapEx profile is the same, so that basic underlying driver will look very comparable. And then what you'll want to do is look at differences in some of the other variables that affect our equity needs, one of which obviously is unrecovered costs or fines and penalties. And I think we've laid out the data for you to do that pretty well today.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay, great. And just lastly, I think on Monday – and I may have this wrong – the company had filed a response in the federal indictment. Is there any color you could give on that filing that you made on Monday?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Sure. This is Hyun Park. So we made four motions for discovery of various materials. So for example, the government is obligated to provide us with what's called Brady materials. Those are evidence that are favorable to the company, and so we've asked for discovery of those materials, as well as certain portions of the grand jury transcript. And we've also asked for witness interview notes, as well as recordings of interviews. And we've also asked them to specify what other acts or incidents that they intend to introduce at trial. And so, all of this will get heard according to the current schedule on June 1 at the federal court.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thanks for taking my question, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldenberg with Luminus Management. You may proceed.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Good morning.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Morning, Michael.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
I have questions on the $1.6 billion chart; trying to understand exactly what's included and what's not included. Is rights of way in there? Is any of corrosion or hydro-strength testing is in there, or is any of the costs of GT&S delayed the five months? Are any of those things in the $1.6 billion?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
No, they're not. So these are the components that were included in the PUC's final penalty decision. I separately went through in the guidance for our items impacting comparability
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Right, right, right. I agree with all of those, I just wanted to be crystal clear that that's not included. So is there any way you can put a number holistically if we – you keep referring us to slide 20, but I guess two things that I didn't appreciate, that $200 of the $300 million fine, that will not need equity issuance, right? Because that was already – since you already took a hit for that, you don't need equity issuance, that's number one. And number two, so is there any way to put the amount of dollars for this cash flow benefit from balancing accounts?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So let me parse through those two. In the first comment you made, which was your conclusion that we don't need equity needs associated with the first $200 million that we accrued a while back, that's actually not quite the case. And when you look at the equity factors, because to date that's been a non-cash accrual, roughly half of that essentially has been financed and...
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Okay.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
...the remaining half gets financed at the time we actually pay the fine. So there is some remaining need that comes from that fine payable, the original $200 million.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Okay, that makes sense. Okay.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Okay. Second – what was the second part of your question again?
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
The second part was... is there any – a way to predict the dollar amount on this cash flow benefit from regulatory from balancing?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, what I would suggest you think about is go to our old guidance for equity, look at – which did not include any of the equity needs associated with the final penalty decision, use the equity factors on slide 20 to estimate what the incremental equity needs are. And there'll be a difference between that and the guidance that we're currently giving you for our overall equity needs, and one of the key drivers of that will be those factors related to cash flows.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Okay. Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Yeah, hey, guys. One question about 2015 guidance. If you just, like, back of the envelope rate base math, I'll use Greg Gordon's algebra for an example here. If I do $31 billion at a 52% equity ratio and at a 10.4% authorized ROE using your current share count, I get a number that's actually below your guidance range. So can you just walk me through what the delta there is? And then, does that delta, does that difference, do you expect that to continue multiple years going forward, or is that something that's a 2015 event only?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, so this is Kent. I'd suggest you focus on slide 7. And on slide 7, essentially the math you just went through is for all intents and purposes the upper part of the chart and the lower left part of the chart, you did the math on it. The other part though is the lower right part of the chart, the other factors affecting our earnings from operations. And I sort of gave commentary on each of those factors. The biggest driver is related to the net benefits of the repairs, the tax benefit. And we've indicated that we would expect it this year to have an impact that's comparable, same order of magnitude to last year when it was $0.24 a share.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then beyond this year, meaning that stops after the – in 2016, or does that carry forward into 2016 and beyond?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That item relates to our 2014 General Rate Case, so we would expect it to be in place through 2016.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
At a comparable level, meaning at that $0.24 level?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Similar order of magnitude.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Kent. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with AllianceBernstein. You may proceed.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Hi. I was hoping to get some clarity on the pending investigations and cases that may result in future fines and perhaps get your view on the maximum amount of those fines. Is it correct to say that we have the federal case, the ex parte withholding of GT&S revenue, the OII into the safety records on the gas distribution side, and then the investigation into the – the OII into the safety culture of PG&E, or are there other investigations and cases that we need to be aware of in addition to those four?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Hugh, I think that covers the list that we're aware of. I'm looking at Hyun Park, our General Counsel. I think he's accurately covered the list.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Hugh, and Tony mentioned earlier that the State AG as well as the federal prosecutors are looking at ex parte issues, so that investigation is still ongoing.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then just kind of a, is it bigger than a breadbox type of estimates here. The maximum penalty in the federal case, I think the federal attorney said that she was seeking up to $1.1 billion. Is that correct? Is there any color you can give us on that?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yes, so it's $1.13 billion is what they've alleged, and the color is that we disagree with that.
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And remember, the $1.13 billion is the alternative fine provision where you calculate either gain that we got or losses that were incurred. But of course, with respect to that, we settled all of the civil cases, so they're – arguably there are no losses left to cover. Certainly, there wasn't gain to the company. I mean, look at the size of this penalty and you'd know that there was no gain to the company. So if you go back to the fundamental provisions of the Pipeline Safety Act under which that case was brought, the fines I think are $500,000 a count, and there are 20-some counts, and so you can run the numbers that way, as what we believe would be a more likely – if in fact there is liability, which of course we contest fairly strongly.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. So you're basically pushing us in the direction of a nominal fine, maybe $1 million, because of the inability to apply the more onerous metrics for calculating a larger fine?
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
So, Hugh, if you do the math under the more conventional fine method, it's $500,000 per count, 28 counts, so that adds up to I believe $14 million.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
$14 million, okay.
Hyun Park - Senior Vice President & General Counsel:
Yeah. And then they've alleged the alternative fines, which Tony described. And by the way, some of this is discussed in some of the motions that we filed on Monday, so you can see some of the discussion on that.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
On the ex parte communication, is it correct to say that the CPUC is still reserving the right to withhold approximately $230 million from the GT&S revenue, or is there some new benchmark there?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Hugh, this is Kent. I think what they said that they would fine us up to 5 months of whatever the ultimate revenue increase coming out of the case is, and we don't know what that is yet.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Right. So that's still – the final determination there is still pending, but it could be 5 months of GT&S revenue increase as a result of the case.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That will be determined at the end of the case.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. On the distribution safety OII, are there any parameters we can use? Should we make reference to the OII into the transmission system, or is this going to be a different order of magnitude?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that's one – the case is just getting under way. We can't even give you an order of magnitude of what might come out of that, if in fact there is any liability at all.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
And what about the OII into safety culture? That seems a very intangible OII to me, and I wonder, is it – do we expect penalties to be sought there, or is that a different type of investigation?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And again, it's very early. I mean, the way I heard it, it sounds like a different type of investigation around what we've done with respect to our safety culture. And as I said before, that's an area we actually feel very good about. We've spent a lot of effort on safety culture issues, starting with doing some very significant benchmarking of other companies to look at what they do, and I will tell you that we've learned a lot from that benchmark, but we also learned that we compare quite favorably to our peers with respect to what we're doing. We hired a number of third-party experts to come in and look at safety culture, from a former head of the NTSB to Lloyd's Registry (sic) [Register] (48:24) in London who's done work under ISO 55000, and things like changing our discipline policy to encourage employees to identify safety issues, to a program to identify near-hits, as we call them, on safety. That has greatly expanded our understanding of where the rifts are in the company. And a number of other things; training of all of our leaders on safety culture. So we've done a lot that hasn't shown up in specific proceedings, and we think this will be an opportunity at some point when the OII gets underway to talk about what we've done.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thank you. And then just one final question. Are you considering as a matter of strategy trying to settle these various cases and investigations so that the hit to equity can be known, or do you feel it's in the best interest of shareholders just to kind of fight these out to the bitter end and let the adversarial process take its course?
Anthony F. Earley Jr. - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
You know, I think that what our recent decisions show is we want to aggressively defend the shareholders' interests, but at some point certainty is in the shareholders' interest. And that was kind of behind our decision not to appeal the San Bruno OIIs, even though there were some issues we thought might be appealable. In the end, it was better to have certainty so we can continue to focus on improving the system. We're always open to settlements in these cases. We're not open to admitting to things that just didn't occur. I think that's our position in the criminal case, that we don't see anyone who didn't – who made any intentional decisions to violate the Pipeline Safety Act. But we will continue to look for opportunities to get certainty by resolving some of these proceedings.
Hugh de Neufville Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you very much for the color. I appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS. You may proceed.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, guys. I was wondering if you could talk about what's the normalized tax rate that you expect to have in the next GRC, you know, once the repair benefits are absorbed?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
This is Dinyar Mistry, the Controller. We expect the repairs flow through rate making to continue in the next General Rate Case, and so it should have a similar order of magnitude on our effective tax rate. What you have been seeing in this year, the $0.24 that Kent mentioned, is the difference between the repairs that was forecasted in the last General Rate Case and the repairs that we are experiencing as we file our tax returns, but that should be trued-up in the 2017 rate case.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Right. And once it's trued-up, what will the normalized tax rate be?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
So the...
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
The 35%, or no?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
No. 35% is the statutory rate. If you go to our financial statements at the end of last year, you'll see that our effective rate was roughly 20%, and it should be probably similar. I don't know how it's going to shake out because it is a technical calculation. But it does not mean that there's a benefit to the bottom line because there's an associated reduction on the revenue side.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
I see. So you will be effectively earning at the 35% rate, even if your GAAP rate is 20%?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
I think the better way to think about it is that there is no benefit or harm from the effective tax rate being different from the statutory tax rate. It's just a calculation.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. We'll follow up offline on that. The other question I had was about future CapEx growth profile after 2016? The Edison call, they discussed kind of having a flat profile for the next decade, at the $4 billion level, and that includes presumably the – well, it might exclude the benefits that might come from investing in the distribution resource plan that's coming out in July. So I'm just wondering if you guys have a similar view of the next decade, especially considering the EV filing that you made, that your CapEx profile will be growing, or will it be kind of flattish over the next decade, or not?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
This is Kent. We will be providing you with numbers when we get to the fall. I would say our observations is that we are doing a lot of infrastructure investment, essentially hardening our system, replacing a lot of stuff that was put in post-World War II and so forth. And we don't expect that program to finish by the time we're done with 2016, so we'll continue to see I think a healthy CapEx profile going forward. But we're not prepared to actually provide you numbers at this point until we finish up on our GRC filing.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
All right. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Merrill Lynch. You may proceed.
Brian J. Chin - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Morning, Brian.
Brian J. Chin - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Is there an implied timing of the equity issuance embedded in the 2015 guidance that you can give a little more color on?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
No, there isn't. As I indicated before, we're still evaluating our options for the financing, and that's with respect to about the timing and the approach.
Brian J. Chin - Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc.:
Okay. Great. The rest of my questions were asked and answered. Thank you.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. You may proceed.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you. Obviously a lot of talk – plenty of talk about the equity side. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the credit side and the timing there in terms of issues and needs?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Well, Travis, this is Kent again. I think if you look last year, our net debt issuance was about $1.4 billion. That's net of maturities, and that's probably not far off from what we've done the last several years. So I would say similar order of magnitude, given similar CapEx program. We have a little bit higher CapEx this year. So similar profile, but we're not going to be talking about timing until we're closer to actually starting a transaction.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Remind me real quick, when do you need to have the capital structure in place for rate making purposes? What's the timing on that?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Yeah, it's essentially over the period during which the capital structure is authorized. So for us, it's over this cost of capital period which has been – essentially will end up being a four-year period right now.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. One other real quick one. The talk about the tax deductions and debate there with the CPUC, if they were to disallow some of that tax write-off, how does that change that slide 20?
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President & Controller:
So, this is Dinyar Mistry again, the Controller, and let's just go through the components of the penalty that you see on slide 20. And if you look at that, the fine payable to the State general fund is not tax deductible, but we continue to believe the other disallowances included in the Commission's final decision are tax deductible.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Goldenberg with Luminus Management. You may proceed.
Michael Goldenberg - Luminus Management LLC:
Good morning again. I just wanted to confirm when you guys talk about equity issuance, do you just talk about straight equity, or are you considering other options?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
Michael, this is Kent, and we are in general, as you know, for these unrecovered fines and penalties, we've been saying that primarily we're relying on equity issuance. And over the past couple years, I've had conversations with investors and certainly with you about options such as mandatory converts, for example. But I will say at this point, I think that option is probably less likely now, just given the size of our remaining equity need for this year.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Hey, Monique, I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of John Apgar with Balyasny Asset Management. You may proceed.
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Good morning. Michael asked my question, but I just wanted you to elaborate a bit more on the equity needs for 2015 and your options. I mean, you have a $300 million DRIP, and can you remind us of the size of the ATM program that you have in place?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
So, yeah, the equity options that we have used in the past include our internal programs, which are both the DRIP and the 401(k) program. We typically have issued roughly $300 million a year from those programs. We have had a continuous equity offering, and we have a program there for $500 million, and I believe in the first quarter, we did approximately $80 million of that through the dribble program. So those are the two components you are relying on – or you are referencing.
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
So between the continuous equity and the DRIP program, you have $800 million of total capacity? Is that the right way to look at it?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
That's correct. Of course, the continuous equity offering is not limited to $500 million, that's just our current program, and we've actually renewed that program several times over the last few years.
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Okay. Fair enough. And then, regarding the balancing accounts, can you quantify that at all as far as the cash impact?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
You know, I think I've had several folks take a run at me on that one on this call, and I think I pretty much laid out how you can get rough estimates of the various factors driving our equity previously on the Q&A, and I'll...
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Well, it's ...
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
... sit tight with what I've already indicated.
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Well, I was just looking at your net receivable balance off of the balancing accounts, and it's $1.2 billion in 2014, much higher than it was in 2013. So is it right to look at it as a big cash outflow in 2014 and that is reversing in 2015? And then, once that net receivable goes to zero, it's not necessarily a net cash outflow next year, right? It just stays at zero? Is that the right way to look at it?
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
There are a lot of factors and complexity in all of our various balancing accounts, so I think that actually if you're starting with those numbers on the balance sheet, you could spend a lot of time trying to figure out the timing during which different ones amortize, and I'm not sure they get you where you really need to be. So I would suggest a simpler way is to go back to our prior estimates of equity, look at the new estimates of equity, and look at our equity factors for the fines and penalties, and you'll at least know how much the equity factors are driving the change from our prior estimate to our new estimate. And...
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Okay.
Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President:
...any difference you see there, I've indicated on the call a significant driver of that has been our cash flows forecast.
John Apgar - Balyasny Asset Management, L.P. (U.S.):
Okay. Thank you.
Janet C. Loduca - Vice President-Investor Relations:
All right. Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning, and have a safe day.
Executives:
Janet Loduca – Vice President-Investor Relations Tony Earley – Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Chris Johns – President-Pacific Gas and Electric Company Kent Harvey – Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Steven Malnight – Senior Vice President-Regulatory Affairs-Pacific Gas and Electric Company Hyun Park – Senior Vice President and General Counsel Dinyar Mistry – Vice President and Controller
Analysts:
Julien Smith – UBS Greg Gordon – Evercore Dan Eggers – Credit Suisse Anthony Crowdell – Jefferies Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Paul Patterson – Glenrock Hugh Wynne – Sanford Bernstein Travis Miller – Morningstar Capital Brian Chin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch Steven Fleishman – Wolfe Research Andy Levi – Avon Capital Advisors Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management
Janet Loduca:
Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us. I’m Janet Loduca, PG&E’s new Vice President of Investor Relations. I’ve had the pleasure of meeting some of you earlier this year and I look forward to working with all of you in the future. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I’ll remind you that our discussion today will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results based on assumptions, forecast, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company’s actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s slide deck. We also encourage you to review the 2014 Annual Report on Form 10-K that will be filed with the SEC later today including the discussion of risk factors. And with that, I’ll hand it over to Tony.
Tony Earley:
Thanks Janet and good morning everyone. 2014 was a strong year for us, and I feel really good about the significant accomplishments that we’ve had in our operations. There is no question that our system is safer and our customers are experiencing greater reliability now than they ever had in the past, and proof of this is in our customer satisfaction scores. I’ve always believed that strong operations are the foundation for longer-term financial success and we’re working hard to deliver on both fronts. Chris, will tell you more about our operational results in a moment and then Kent will go through the financials. In addition to the great progress we’ve made operationally, I want to acknowledge the setbacks we had last year related to communications between the company and our regulators. As you know, we took quick and decisive action, making it clear to our employees and the public that non-compliance has no place in our organization. And with the help of outside side experts, we’re establishing a best in class compliance program. I also want to acknowledge that we still don’t have a final resolution in the gas transmission OII investigations. With the proposed decision issued last September, we believe the commission has all the information it needs and we hope to see a final decision soon. Now, as we look ahead with the resolution of the General Rate Case last year, we’re positioned to continue investing in our gas and electric systems. We plan to build on our progress for the past few years by continuing to upgrade our gas and electric infrastructure and leverage technology to enhance performance and modernize the grid. Over the next few years, we expect our capital spending to be more than $5 billion a year and we’re optimistic about PG&E’s growth opportunities. We plan to continue to take advantage of our location near Silicon Valley to help design and build the grid of the future, or as we’ve been calling it, the grid of things, where distributor generation, electric vehicles, energy storage, and other technologies are integrated into a two-way power grid. Governor Brown recently set out some ambitious goals for California to significantly reduce carbon emissions by 20130. We believe these policies are in line with our own strategies on clean energy, vehicle electrification and energy efficiency and look forward to working with policymakers to develop and implement these new standards. In fact, yesterday, we filed an application at the CPUC to invest $500 million over five years in electric vehicle charging infrastructure, which we believe is critical for EV adoption and greenhouse-gas reduction. We’re glad the CPUC has recognized that the utilities are important players in the electrification of the transportation sector and we’re eager to get our program approved and under way. So with that, now, let me turn it over to Chris.
Chris Johns:
Thanks Tony and good morning everyone. As you can see on Slide 4, I’ll begin my remarks with an update on our operations and then touch on some additional regulatory developments from the quarter and the year. As Tony mentioned, we had a really strong operational results in 2014. Starting with safety, we’re extremely proud of our performance on key public safety metrics such as gas odor response time, 911 response and third party dig-ins. For example, last year PG&E employees responded to gas emergency calls in an average of less than 20 minutes, which represents one of the fastest response times in the industry. In terms of electric reliability, 2014 was our sixth straight year of record performance for outage duration and our customers experienced the fewest outages in company history. We also opened our first of three state-of-the-art electric distribution controls centers last year, integrating leading technology to further improve operations. In terms of electric supply, we continue to make good progress on our goal of 33% qualified renewables by 2020. In last year, our electric supply portfolio was more than 50% greenhouse-gas-free making us one of the cleanest utilities in the country. On the gas side, we’re especially proud of the international certifications we received for our asset management practices. Not only did we receive the initial certifications from Lloyd’s Register in May, but in November, we were recertified after an extensive follow-up audit, which validated the sustainability of our program. We’re one of only a few utilities in the world to achieve these certifications. Also in gas last month we announced that we now completed our system-wide cast iron pipe replacement program, making our gas system even safer. And you can see on the slide the extensive work we completed on strength testing, valve automation, and pipe replacement. Now, all of this work is being acknowledged by our customers. Our customer satisfaction results in 2014 were the highest we’ve seen since 2009, which is before the San Bruno accident. While we’re proud of all of these achievements, we know we have more work to do, and we’ll continue to look for, find, and fix areas that need improvement. Moving on to our pipeline safety enhancement plan, or our PSEP, we’ve completed the majority of the planned expense work in PSEP, although a small amount of work will continue into this year, and Kent will cover how this fits into our 2015 plans. On the capital side of the program, the last part of the PSEP has proven to be very challenging. Late last year, we determined that the permitting and routing for a number of the remaining pipeline replacement projects, including some in environmentally sensitive areas, will be more difficult than we previously expected. So we now expect the work to be more costly and will be completed over the next few years, which is longer than we had originally anticipated. Since the PSEP program has a cap on the recovery of capital, we took a charge of $116 million in the fourth quarter for these higher expected costs. Shifting to regulatory matters, the hearings in the gas transmission and storage rate case started last week and are expected to conclude this month. The current schedule calls for a final decision in August, with revenues retroactive to January 1st of this year. As a reminder, the final decision on the order to show causes related to ex parte communications in the gas transmission rate case called for a disallowance of up to five months of the increase in the authorized revenue. As you know, we have appealed that portion of the decision. In other regulatory matters, in December, the commission approved an incentive award for our energy efficiency programs and our cost of capital mechanism was extended for another year. It will now be in place through the end of 2016. So with that I’ll turn it over to Ken.
Kent Harvey:
Thank you and good morning. As usual, I plan to go through our Q4 results and I’ll provide some insights about our 2015 outlook. Slide 5 shows our results for Q4 and full year 2014. Earnings from operations came in at $0.53 for the quarter and $3.50 for the year. GAAP earnings, including our items impacting comparability are shown here as well. We’ve got the details regarding the natural gas item in the table at the bottom in pre-tax dollars. Our pipeline-related expenses came in at $102 million for the quarter and $347 million for the year, which was just below our guidance range. As Chris mentioned, a modest amount of PSEP related expense work will spill over into 2015. Next is the disallowed capital write-off for PSEP of $116 million related to the higher costs to complete the remaining PSEP capital work. Because there is a cost cap in place, we wrote off those costs that we anticipate will come in above the cap. On the next slide, you see that we recorded $12 million of fines, mainly for the gas distribution accident in Carmel last March. We believe that fine is excessive and we’ve requested a rehearing. We adjusted our third-party liability claims related to San Bruno down by $7 million as a result of settling the last few claims in Q4. That leaves our total loss at $558 million versus our previous estimate of $565 million. Finally, we booked $26 million in insurance recoveries in the quarter for a total of $112 million for the year. Slide 6 is the quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations and you’ve seen many of these same drivers in previous quarters. The first three items relate primarily to 2014 – to the 2014 General Rate Case and they totaled $0.19. I’m just going to go through each of them briefly. First, as a result of the GRC decision, our expense recovery increased $0.08 quarter-over-quarter. This represents the impact of recovering higher levels of spend that were not being recovered in 2013. Second, we had a positive $0.06 resulting from tax benefits related to our federal tax deduction for repairs costs. Third, we recorded earnings on a higher authorized rate base. This totaled $0.05. As you see, we also had some smaller positive items in the quarter, a pick up on some regulatory matters, the absence of some project and lease charges experienced in the prior year and various other items included in miscellaneous. These positives were partially offset by a $0.14 timing item related to taxes and operating expenses that was driven mainly by the delay in our General Rate Case. You may remember this from last quarter’s call. In Q4, this item turned around, as expected, reversing out the impact experienced earlier in the year. Finally, our share dilution came in at $0.02 negative quarter-over-quarter. Now, I’d like to provide a few thoughts about our future performance. Since we’re still awaiting resolution of the gas pipeline investigations by the CPUC, we’re not providing guidance today for 2015 earnings. However, we are providing key assumptions for earnings from operations and items impacting comparability to help you understand our profile. If you turn to Slide 7, you’ll see some key assumptions for 2015 earnings from operations. First in the upper left, you see we’re assuming capital expenditures of roughly $5.5 billion this year. The breakdown by line of business is included here as well. In the upper right, you see that our estimate of weighted average authorized rate base is about $31 billion. Both the CapEx and rate base assumptions are consistent with ranges, we’ve previously provided, so no real change there. In the lower left, you’ll see that there also are no changes to our assumptions regarding authorized return on equity and equity ratio. At the bottom right of the slide, we list some other factors we believe will affect 2015 earnings from operations. Our objective for EFO is to earn our authorized return on rate base for the enterprise as a whole plus the net impact of the factors listed here. Many of these should look familiar from last year and I’ll briefly touch on them and reiterate what we’ve previously told you about them. In terms of the gas transmission and storage rate case, the first bullet is just a reminder that the outcome of the case is not known at this stage, so we have some uncertainty regarding the impact on 2015 results. The second bullet under the gas transmission case is also a reminder that we’ve not sought recovery of some operating expenses in 2015 and beyond. These are for certain corrosion and strength testing work. We previously indicated that these expenses taken together should average roughly $50 million annually over the three year period although the amount may vary year-to-year. Next is the tax benefits associated with the repairs deduction. Last year, the net impact from this item was almost a quarter and we’ve indicated that we expect it to be a similar order of magnitude in 2015. The next two factors
Operator:
[Operator Instruction] Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Julien Smith with UBS. You may proceed.
Julien Smith:
Hi good morning.
Dinyar Mistry:
Good morning
Julien Smith:
Hi, so congrats again on a good and decent quarter here. And just wanted to kind of kick it off with the question on bonus D&A here. If you don’t mind rehashing. It didn’t look like the rate base has shifted all that much versus what you last projected here. How does that flow through, if you can kind of realigned [ph] it?
Dinyar Mistry:
This is Dinyar Mistry, the controller. So as you know, bonus was past all the way at the end of 2014 and in our general rate case we have a mechanism that similar to what we had in the past it’s called Tama. And it basically provides for us to use that bonus benefit for additional CapEx. Since we got bonus all the way at the end of the year, it really didn’t have very much impact and we factored that into the rate base numbers that you see here.
Julien Smith:
Got you. So no real negative impact here for 2015 earnings as far as it goes.
Dinyar Mistry:
No it should not be, and additionally we’re in an annualized situation. So that dampens the impact.
Julien Smith:
Great and then secondly, for bigger picture here. As you look at the renewable portfolio standard and the potential shift to 50%. What is that mean near-term in terms of spend just broadly speaking the renewables and secondly, your specific spend whether would be directly in renewable technologies broadly or frankly from a T&B perspective what does this mean, in terms of accelerated deployment.
Tony Earley:
Well, this is Tony. I’ll start off. First of all there is a long way to go between where we’re today and a specific plan for California, the governor person stated the state speech outlined some long-term objectives, the utilities here in California are all working together and want to work with the state to develop. What those policies are, clearly will be going above 33% we think that a clean energy standard that gives us some flexibility going forward make sense, but in any event even assuming we’re going to be continuing to develop our renewable portfolio. Most of the renewables now are part of our purchase power portfolio. We did do some utility owned seller early on decided that wasn’t strength for us. So I would anticipate that in the future as our renewables go up that just we’ll slow through our purchase power accounts rather than being investment in capital. Although, we continue to look at new technologies, but it will do as this renewables go up, the grid becomes more complex to manage and as Chris said in number of speeches that’s our investment opportunity to invest in going from the traditional one way flow of power on the grid to multi flow power that is not as predictable. And that’s going to be where we think their growth opportunities.
Julien Smith:
Great. Could you elaborate just a little bit about the growth opportunity has been, what’s the timeline here which you think the 50% moves happen if you will? What could we see the dollars flowing and how do we get from A to Z here, if you will?
Chris Johns:
Yes. This is Chris. First of all, we don’t know again as Tony said on the timing of what the 50% would look like and again we would most likely wouldn’t be making investments in any of the facilities themselves. But as far as the future of the grid we’ve actually already started that we’ve been working on it for last several years, you may remember our Cornerstone project that helped us start to make investments in modernizing the grid and we’re going to continue to do that. We don’t have projections out there throughout the dollars look like, but those are dollars that we’ve already started to put in place. And some of our projections that you already see here around 2015 and 2016 include some dollars for continuing to modernize. So as we’ve continue to move forward with making sure that we’re in a position to be able to hook up the solar panels in the batteries in the plug-in vehicles into our system, we’ve continued to evaluate, not just replacing old wire, but modernizing the entirety of the system in putting more technology into it. And that’s what you’ll continue to see from us and we’ll just continue to build them into our rate base growth.
Julien Smith:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. You may proceed.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning.
Chris Johns:
Good morning, Greg.
Kent Harvey:
Hi, Greg.
Greg Gordon:
The tax benefits, should we assume that they will repeat, but at a lower level n 2016 and then sort of work – and then be gone post 2016 or - I remember [indiscernible] you’ve given any guidance with regard to the trajectory post 2015?
Kent Harvey:
Greg, this is Kent. We’ve really just indicated that the tax benefits were really in connection with our General Rate Case, which is a three-year proceeding. So yes, you should expect them through 2016.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And then you have a rate case in 2016 and the rates in 2017 and so that would get…
Kent Harvey:
That would be reflected in that proceeding, that’s correct.
Greg Gordon:
Okay, energy efficiency revenues, you booked – so I think you booked $0.04 in fiscal year 2014. Based on the new scheme, should we expect that you have an opportunity annually to continue to book earnings in that order of magnitude? And how should we think about that?
Kent Harvey:
Well, last year we did book in December the award was for a year and a half. So it’s a little unusual. It wasn’t just a single year. And again, it’s with significant lags, these awards. So the awards we just got were for 2012 I think and half of 2013. So I think what we’ll be booking this year will probably be for subsequent to that. The new scheme will be in place after that.
Greg Gordon:
Okay. And then finally on page eight of your handout, you pointed out, there’s a place holder for fines and penalties. Just to make sure I have this right that’s for potential fines and penalties in the San Bruno cases. You also potentially be disallowed some revenue requirement in the GT&S case? And then should we also sort of notionally have a place holder there for the potential for financial impacts from criminal indictment? Is there anything else out there that I’m missing that would sort of go into that catch-all?
Kent Harvey:
Well, right now it’s hard to know what is going to happen with all the ex parte stuff because there is a lot of stuff that we have filed at the commission. And we’re not really clear what will come out of that. In addition, we do know that there are investigations related to the regulatory communications by the State Attorney General as well as Federal prosecutors and that’s also unclear.
Greg Gordon:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. You may proceed.
Dan Eggers:
Hi, good morning, guys. Just maybe as a follow-on to Julien’s questions, can you give us a little more explanation of all the things that are going into the grid of things project that’s going on, how much CapEx is going into that right now and kind of the scalability of that. How long you think it would be before that was more broadly deployed on the system?
Tony Earley:
Yes, Dan, we haven’t broken out the specific capital investments associated with the grid, but you see our capital budgets next year, about 5.5 billion I think is our spend. We haven’t given guidance for future years, but we have said that you can expect comparable levels of capital investment. Now, within that, a big - there is a big chunk for upgrading the grid. So you go back a couple years and you start with going to virtually 100% smart meters. We’ve talked about then automating switches on the system. So that we can automatically shift when we have outages and that has paid tremendous benefits. The Napa earthquake and the storms that we had at the end of 2014, in fact just last week we had some major storms here in California and had really superb results because we’re able to immediately detect where the outages are and then automatically reconfigure the system. So we’re doing that. And then the other future investments will be control systems, A, to monitor the state of the grid as you’ve got all of these renewables dumping into the system at points that we never anticipated when the system was built. So to be able to detect and then to be able to control voltages on those systems. And that’s an ongoing program. Chris, I don’t know if you want to comment on the specifics. But I think that’s going to be something that’s going to be in every capital budget going forward.
Chris Johns:
Yes, I agree. And again, we haven’t put out what those dollars look like on a forecast basis, but they are included to the extent we’re working on them in 2015 and 2016 and the numbers you see in front of you…
Tony Earley:
I mean one other point I’ll make is our filing this week proposing about a $100 million a year investment in charging is also part of that. I mean, our view is that as we go forward, as we renovate different circuits, we ought to be installing EV charging at appropriate places within that renovated circuit, because that’s what the grid ought to look like going forward.
Dan Eggers:
Tony, just on the charging release, how was the approval process going to work from that and the other is what people who are trying to do it on a merchant basis who know that will challenge you? How do you guys kind of defend this as utility and investment opportunity?
Tony Earley:
Let me start off with the issue around challenging as a merchant activity. I mean, California for a number of years did not allow utilities to participate in the public charging market. We could build charging stations for our own fleet, but not for the public. On the theory that entrepreneurs would jump in and provide this service, I can tell you not only from our experience here in California, my experience at DT where we had unregulated subsidiaries that at times would look at this. The entrepreneurial model just isn’t going to work. There isn’t enough margin in that business, where at my work is for some of those entrepreneurs that actually produce the charging stations to partner with us and we’ll install the infrastructure. Let me ask Steve Malnight is here with me to talk about what the regulatory process looks like for going forward.
Steve Malnight:
Hi, this is Steven Malnight from the Regulatory Affairs team. So, we filed our application and we will be looking for the commission to issue schedule for that proceeding. As you know, Southern California Edison and San Diego also have proceedings that are going on at the same time. So we’ll wait to see what that schedule will look like, as it comes out.
Chris Johns:
And the only other thing, Dan, that I would add to that, this is Chris, is that our filing, we are only looking at about 25% of the marketplace. So, there is still huge amount of room for competitors, if they want to try to continue to operate in that market, there’s plenty of opportunity for them.
Dan Eggers:
Got it. And I guess one last question just on, I guess your challenger your appeal to the delayed revenue recovery, because they are ex parte communications on GT&S. Can you just walk through the process and the schedule for that to get resolved? And this is just something that could be said with some other number, rather than having to go through it fully adjudicated process?
Chris Johns:
Let me let’s say Hyun Park, General Counsel talk about the schedule for that.
Hyun Park:
Yes, Dan, we filed an application for rehearing of that decision. That was filed on December 26 and all the briefings have been submitted by all the parties, so it remains to be seen when the commission will act on that rehearing and, as you know, the GT&S case is currently going through hearings right now.
Dan Eggers:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. You may proceed.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hi, good morning, I guess I want to ask the same question. What is 2017 CapEx looks like so? Is moving toward a different, you’ve seen like you punch it on the first two. I guess just a two quick questions. One is you’ve given us equity guidance in 2015, I mean, any thoughts to doing converts or something else, something other than equity going forward with this large CapEx forecast? And the second the GT&S rate case is delayed, but I think there’s a GT&S 2 that’s down the pipe. When does that get filed?
Kent Harvey:
Anthony this is Kent. Let me take the first one. In terms of our equity needs, you can see they are more modest this year for our normal CapEx program. The uncertainty that we really have, obviously from a financing perspective, are when are the gas matters really resolved with the OII. And that’s really what’s going to drive our financing needs. And as I’ve said in the past, depending upon the nature of that, the timing of it, the magnitude and the various components, that there are alternatives such as, such as mandatory converts that we would consider. It all just depends on the details of the final decision. The second part of your question.
Chris Johns:
This is Chris. Your second one, I’m not sure there is a specific GT&S Phase 2 that you’re thinking of but the next rate case with GT&S would be filed in 2017 or 2018 because it’s a three year cycle.
Anthony Crowdell:
Okay. So I guess just in – in your electric case ends in 2016, new electric rates I guess in 2017 and then new gas rates would be in 2018 is that correct?
Chris Johns:
Before the pipeline that is correct.
Anthony Crowdell:
Before the pipeline, great, thank you. And do you sure, you don’t want to give us the 2017 CapEx or?
Chris Johns:
Let us make it better.
Anthony Crowdell:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides:
Yes. A couple of questions, first of all, I know somebody ask about bonus D&A in terms of what it means for rate base. But can you talk about what it means for cash flow in 2015?
Dinyar Mistry:
Hi, Michael, this is Dinyar, again. So as I mentioned, we’re in an annual situation so it really doesn’t mean much for cash flow.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. Can you talk about expectations kind of the spread do you expect which mean kind of gap in cash taxes meaning the fact you’ve got such as sizable NOL does that imply that you’re not really - you’re not much of a federal cash taxpayer this year and how far out in the future do you expect that to extend?
Dinyar Mistry:
Yes, that’s correct. We don’t anticipate being a federal cash taxpayer in 2015 or 2016. So I think it will extend out into 2017.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, guys, and one thing on CapEx.
Dinyar Mistry:
Michael, I just wanted to add that – that’s already embedded in the equity assumptions that we’ve given out.
Michael Lapides:
Right. Okay. So it already impacts the financing. When we look out at CapEx can you talk about the variability as part of the GT&S case meaning how much – how much from the GT&S case outcomes win your expected CapEx in either 2015 or 2016?
Dinyar Mistry:
Well, you can actually see on the Slide 7, that we show for gas transmission a couple of $100 million of potential variability.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. So that’s both 2015 and for 2016?
Chris Johns:
Well, we’re showing that as the, as for 2015 because that’s the year that we’re providing line of business guidance like that. But you could expect probably a similar type of impact in two years, depending upon how the rate comes out.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks guys much appreciated.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock. You may proceed.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning, can you hear me? Okay.
Chris Johns:
We can hear Paul.
Paul Patterson:
With respect to San Bruno, I know you guys were thinking that was going to be done by the end of the year. I’m just wondering what do you think if cause the delay and how should we think about the conclusion of this process going forward?
Chris Johns:
Well, I think it’s fairly, obviously the delay was caused by the issues around the ex parte communications. And then with the departure of President Peevey, getting a new President, appointed and then a new commissioner in. But we now have all of those pieces in place, with President Picker there and a new commissioner so. Everything is now in the hands of the commission, they’ve got the recommended decision and so I think it’s now in their hands to go ahead and make a decision, we don’t think there is anything more the parties need to do in the case.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, but you haven’t had any word or anything about how of any sort of template and data or anything like that is to – we should be thinking about?
Chris Johns:
No, we haven’t.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just in terms of the ex partes I realized that there is several proceedings going on and we don’t know how those are going to necessarily go or how long they are going to take, but is pretty much most of the ex parte communications to that to your knowledge, now out there? I mean, is that should we I mean in terms of discovery and stuff, are we sort of finished with that, do you think?
Chris Johns:
As I said in the past we have done a comprehensive search of all of the places where we believe there is some – there is a possibility that there would be ex parte communications And I have disclosed to everyone that – every instance that we are aware of. That said, there are multiple proceedings going on. There are lots of requests for more access to company records and e-mails. When you put it in perspective, we got 22,000 employees if they produce 10 e-mails a day, that’s a million e-mails every five days.
Paul Patterson:
Yes.
Tony Earley:
I get asked all the time, have you looked at every e-mails, my answer is no. Have we looked where we think it’s likely to have an ex parte communication absolutely.
Paul Patterson:
Fair enough. Okay and then just on the criminal case. Do we have a schedule now at this point or we still sort of where are we in the process?
Hyun Park:
So this is Hyun Park. So we have a hearing that’s scheduled for March 9 and I think the expectation is that’s when the motion schedule will be set.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, then back to sort of Dan’s question on the electric vehicles, it looked to me, I mean from what I read, $654million and looked that there was going to be a charge for customers between 2018 and 2022. And that’s what I’m piecing together. I haven’t actually been able to look at the full filing. Is there some sort of amortization that’s unique to this CapEx that would suggest that the recovery would be over that period of time or just to sort of get a flavor for what exactly is going into this. I mean, it looks like it would be $26,000 per station. Is that a fair number? Or is that just also all the other stuff that’s sort of supporting this kind of effort? Do you follow me?
SteveMalnight:
Yes this is Steve Malnight yes, the filing we’re anticipating putting that capital into rate base. Normally as we do with our, the rest of our capital and the total cost that we talked about is for all the cost associated with implementing that program.
Paul Patterson:
Okay and then the amortization period or the collection period for customers that was mentioned between 2018, 2022 sounds kind of slow, sounds kind of shortened. Is there something about these facilities that would suggest that their recovery should be over a short period of time or is that just how the release came out? Do you follow me?
Kent Harvey:
The period of time that looking at wasn’t meant to be what the recovery period time it’s just the expenditures in our implementation of them.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Kent Harvey:
So this is correct, so the recovery would just a normal recovery period of time. And I think that’s why it’s about, I think $80 million annual revenue requirement stretching out beyond that five-year, or that six-year period of time.
Paul Patterson:
And you mentioned the margins were low just a quick clarify this, how much if we would talk about the revenue requirement associated with these stations is being covered by customers versus what quote, unquote the marketplace would be theoretically covering? Do you have a rough breakdown of that?
Chris Johns:
Probably not to the level of detail that you’re asking for. But we’re asking for the what would be included in the cover for the customer’s choice is the capital cost that is putting the infrastructure in place. Then the meters would go on and the charges off of those meters would cover the cost of electricity and everything else%.
Tony Earley:
And we’re actually looking at having a third party manage that the process. So we are not in that payment processing business. Users would use their credit card and there is a third party would manage that process.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you, our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein. You may proceed.
Hugh Wynne:
Hi, good morning and congratulations on some of these achievements on the operational side. I just wanted to address initially that I continue to be concerned about on the regulatory side which is the OII into the accuracy of record keeping on the gas distribution side of the business as opposed to gas transmission. And I guess I’m still worried that if the commission really wanted to get grotty about this they could probably find enough inaccuracies in the records to come up with a substantial fund. Can you give us any parameters for how that investigation is going, what likely outcome you see, what financial impact there might be?
Chris Johns:
Huge this is Chris. I wish I had more details for you, but we don’t because we don’t have an information yet on the scope of the investigation. So they haven’t - they’ve done, just for reminder for everybody on November 20 of last year, the commission issued an OII in order to show cause, to look into the record keeping around the gas distribution system and they specifically reference six incidents from 2010 to 2014 where they were no fatalities or injuries. But we’ve done a lot of work on a record keeping over the - since San Bruno not just the transmission pipe, but also the distribution pipe. And we continue to do that, but they have not had a scoping meeting or scheduling meeting yet at all and so we filed our responses, but otherwise we don’t have a lot of information as to where they may go on this. We’re waiting for the pre-hearing conference and that has not even been scheduled yet.
Hugh Wynne:
Thank you. As I recall there was a program of upgrading the gas distribution system that you conducted several years ago which fell under the items impacted comparability and because those expenditures were not recoverable. Do you foresee the potential for any further unrecoverable capital expenditures on the distribution side of the business such as we’ve seen with the PSEP on the transmission side.
Chris Johns:
Yes, I mean obviously again, we don’t know what that record keeping OII would be about, but otherwise we wouldn’t because we just went through our General Rate Case which addresses our gas distribution side of the business. And we got the results of that and we’re going to be operating under that and so we don’t see anything on the horizon that would say we believe we’re at risk of non-recovery of things that we’re doing on our investments in the gas distribution piece of the business.
Hugh Wynne:
Great, alright, thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar Capital. You may proceed.
Travis Miller:
Good morning, thank you. The TO 16, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the key issues where you are the farthest apart suppose in the settlement conference that’s coming up. And then second, depending on that outcome how would that affects the $1 billion plus that you guys have tagged for CapEx and presumably a similar amount in 2016 and 2017.
Kent Harvey:
Travis, this is Kent. Typically we go through a TO case every year. This isn’t going to be any different than the other ones, but we really don’t provide much commentary on it, while it’s underway.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then would that affect, if you were to get an unfavorable decision, would that affect the transmission spend material those, are those projects that kind of in the process in the ground type of projects.
Kent Harvey:
Well, we’ve had a pretty good track record in resolving TO cases and we’re hopeful that’s going to be the outcome this time as well.
Chris Johns:
Okay. And this is Chris. Along those lines, as we do with all of our rate cases in regulatory orders, we try to operate within what they rule. So if there was something that wasn’t going to be a project that they didn’t think we need, we would have to reevaluate whether we would do that or not.
Travis Miller:
Okay. I think everybody asked my CapEx question is before, so I appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed.
Brian Chin:
Hi, good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning, Brian.
Chris Johns:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Chin:
Just on the slide where you are talking about 2015, what things to think about even though you haven’t given guidance, on the SolarCity, monetizing SolarCity shares, can you just give us a general sense of how big that should be. I realize you’re not in a position to give full guidance, but at least a sense of scale on that part would be helpful.
Kent Harvey:
Brian, it’s Kent. Last year, I believe it was in the third and fourth quarter we monetized SolarCity second and third. We monetized shares and I think each of those pickups were about $0.03 for each of those quarters and that basically represents about two-thirds of the total. So I think that gives you a pretty good indication of sort of roughly what we’d expect for this year.
Brian Chin:
Great. And lastly, my second question is when it comes to rights of way and surveying costs. It’s been a little while since we’ve heard you guys talk about that in great detail. Should we be at the level now where we feel relatively comfortable that there aren’t going to be unexpected additional costs there? Is there like a percentage of completion that we can think about going forward from here?
Chris Johns:
This is Chris. I think as we talked about last year, we did experience some delays in the pathway program because of some vegetation issues in some of the cities, but we still at this point in time are reiterating that we don’t - we believe we’ll be able to finish the program by the end of 2017, which was the original five-year schedule and that we still don’t expected to be in excess of the $500 million that we originally have put out there.
Brian Chin:
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Research. You may proceed.
Steven Fleishman:
Hi, good morning.
Chris Johns:
Hi, Steve.
Steven Fleishman:
Hi, so just on the TO case, the transmission case, you’re assuming kind of returns similar to what you get in the California regulated business.
Kent Harvey:
Steve, it’s Kent. We have filed for 1126. Over the last few years, we’ve just been telling people when they think about guidance, particularly given the relative size of electric transmission the rest of our business. We’ve been telling people to do an approximation of comparable authorized return is that the PUC. But the proceeding and the ROE is still under way at the FERC.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then just going back to the e-mails and communications side from kind of - I guess do you still owe anything per the process to anybody beyond the 65,000 e-mails you already filed? Is there something that you still have to provide?
Tony Earley:
I’ll ask Hyun to answer that. As I said, we get discovery requests in all of our proceedings, but we’re pretty much up to date on all the things we owe.
Chris Johns:
So Steve, as Tony said to the request from various parties for discovery and information is ongoing, so I would say we’re current, but I’m not sure that we’re completely done with this.
Steven Fleishman:
Okay. And then I guess Edison at times talk about kind of other programs that could add to their current rate base plan, things like storage and the like. Do you - and obviously something like this electric vehicle program you announced. Do you have some of those that are out there that would be kind of additive to the plan as it is now?
Chris Johns:
Well, we do anticipate that we’ll be doing storage. We just went out for bids for proposals on storage, but we also have the opportunity to invest in storage. Quite honestly, we’re early on and trying to figure out what technologies make sense and what don’t. We have not factored in any storage investments into our capital plans right now. It’s just too early to do that. The other things around upgrading the grid, they are kind of built into our forecasts of, as we upgrade our system will be upgrading to the newest technologies.
StevenFleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys just real quick on the electric transmission, where do you think you are in the cycle in terms of the level of electric transmission capital spending each year, meaning, do you think 2015 is a normal level and kind of a good run rate longer-term, do you think there’s strength that could make that number significantly higher going forward or significantly lower going forward? And if so what would those private drivers be?
Kent Harvey:
Michael, its Kent. We really only have guidance out to electric transmission for this year. So I can’t really give you a view beyond 2015 at this point.
Michael Lapides:
Yeah, I’m just, I’m not really looking for a number of more drivers like how do you think about - just kind a where in the cycle and may be not just for you, but kind of for the industry or for the State of California?
Tony Earley:
Yes, Michael, what I would say is, of course, the major projects are lumpy, they come and go as the needs go. I think you can assume, if we continue to build the renewals portfolio in California to support that, there’s going to be transmission investments whether we make those investments or not depends on a number of things. There’s a bidding process in California and we did win a bid to jointly develop a new project that’s underway. In the future, we’ll look at opportunities as they come along. But you can assume we’re going to do them, maybe other parties that will build the transmission to support renewables, then we just purchase the services.
Michael Lapides:
Thank you, Tony. Much appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Levi with Avon Capital Advisors. You may proceed.
Andy Levi:
Hey, good morning.
Tony Earley:
Good morning Andy.
Kent Harvey:
Good morning.
Andy Levi:
I think most of my questions were, after just I have two housekeeping. But I did see that you must have ticked the top on that SolarCity stock when you sold it, so very good on that one. We’ll have to give you a job here, too.
Kent Harvey:
Yes.
Andy Levi:
Just two housekeeping things, just on the $5.5 billion of CapEx for this year, do we back out any of that that’s not recoverable? Like is part of that like PSEP costs or something like that, so it’s not - doesn’t all go to rate base, I guess is the question.
Dinyar Mistry:
Yeah, so this is Dinyar. I think if you look at Slide 7, you’ll see that separately funded piece of a $100 million for PSEP, that spending that we will be doing in 2015 associated with the charge we took in 2014. So that would be the component.
Tony Earley:
And that’s the only piece.
Dinyar Mistry:
Yes.
Tony Earley:
Like, none of this stuff on Page 8, gets backed out, one of those expense items.
Kent Harvey:
So the way the accounting works is you take a charge for costs that you anticipate you will not recover on the capital side. So we haven’t yet spent the capital, but we’ve had to take a charge in 2014. That capital will be spent in the future years.
Andy Levi:
Alright, but that - for rate base purposes we should be adding $5.4 billion less depreciation in differed taxes to our rate base?
Chris Johns:
You could think of it that way, we’ve already given you a rate base guidance.
Andy Levi:
No I understand, I understand. Yes, I just like to do it with myself too.
Chris Johns:
Sure.
Andy Levi:
Okay.
Chris Johns:
Sure, yes that [indiscernible] would not be recoverable.
Andy Levi:
Okay. And then the second question, just on the insurance recoveries, Kent is there like you’ve collected a 112 in 2014, I don’t know what the total amount is, since the inception of the recoveries. But it’s there - go ahead I’m sorry.
Dinyar Mistry:
Andy the total was $466 million to date.
Andy Levi:
Okay $466 million and what’s the maximum you can recover?
Dinyar Mistry:
Well we can recover the full liability which we have booked at, $557 million now I think,
Kent Harvey:
$558 million.
Dinyar Mistry:
Excuse me and then also the litigation cost associated with the third party liability.
Andy Levi:
How much could that potentially [indiscernible]?
Dinyar Mistry:
That we haven’t separately disclosed.
Andy Levi:
Got it, so it’s up to 558 plus, whatever litigation costs. And there’s no maximum on that litigation cost?
Kent Harvey:
That is our estimate of the litigation cost. Oh excuse the litigation cost there is no maximum, it’s whatever was required to pursue the clients.
Operator:
I think we have one more question.
Andy Levi:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium Asset Management. You may proceed.
Ashar Khan:
Good morning and great quarter. Kent can you give us an idea like last year in the equity piece, there was a component which came in because of late timing of the GRC. So in this year’s equity $400 million to $600 million, can you give us some rough estimates what could be the impact, I’m assuming there is an impact for delayed GT&S rate case which is coming in later than, should have come in at the beginning of the year. Is there’s somewhere you can guide us on that?
Kent Harvey:
Well I’ll say if you actually look at Slide 9, we give some of the drivers to lock you from last year to 2015 and the equity need. And you’re right, the first item is kind of a timing item to when during the year you actually do the financings, but also in the case of last year, the fact that the General Rate Case was delayed until fairly late, means we had a lot of months during the year where we otherwise had to increase our equity component a little bit in order to manage our overall equity ratio. What you really ask about is, is there a similar phenomenon in 2015 for the gas transmission case? And there is. That’s absolutely true. It’s probably not the same magnitude but there is a similar phenomenon, which otherwise will cause us to have a little more equity this year as compared to the subsequent year when you have the revenues throughout the year. The other drivers up here, just to quickly go over them, we do have because of rate base growth, we do have higher earnings in 2015. So that slightly reduces the equity need this year. We also have lower unrecovered costs we talked about that on the call, similarly reduces the equity need. But we have higher capital expenditures and that’s one factor that goes in the other direction.
Janet Loduca:
All right, we would like to thank everybody for participating today and we’ll end the call now.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending today’s conference. This will now conclude the call. Please enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President and Controller Anthony F. Earley - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee Christopher P. Johns - Former President and Director Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President Hyun Park - Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Analysts:
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Ashar Khan Andrew Levi Andrew Levi - Caris & Company, Inc., Research Division Craig Martin Lucas
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Q3 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to introduce your host, Mr. Dinyar Mistry. You may proceed.
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I'll remind you that our discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results based on assumptions, forecast, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2013 annual report. And with that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley:
Thank you, Dinyar, and good morning, everyone. This quarter had a number of significant developments in PG&E, and I know you're all interested in the impacts of the recent self-reports concerning ex parte communications. I'll get to that in a minute, but I also want to highlight several other key developments in the quarter. After a long wait, the presiding officer's decision has finally issued in the gas investigations, an important step in resolving the gas issues. We also received a final decision on our 2014 General Rate Case, which positions us well for the next few years. We had a strong quarter operationally and financially. Chris and Kent will cover those aspects of the business on the call this morning. So, getting back to our regulatory issues. We've also had some setbacks in recent weeks in that very important area. We regret these developments. When I arrived 3 years ago, we knew that we had gaps in our performance, particularly in our gas business, and we launched major efforts to focus on operational excellence. We committed to seek out problems and to deal with them in a very transparent manner. Unfortunately, what we did not know was that we also had a gap in our CPUC communications protocols. All of this became apparent as a result of a voluntary review of communications between the company and the CPUC that we undertook after allegations of improper communications were raised this summer. We were disappointed to discover communications that we believe violated the CPUC's rules regarding ex parte communications, including in a pending Gas Transmission & Storage rate case. As you know, we took decisive action. We self-reported these violations. We held individuals accountable. And we're taking meaningful steps to put in place a best-in-class regulatory compliance model to prevent another incident. As you would expect, these ex parte violations have had a negative impact on the regulatory environment. Two commissioners have recused themselves from the pending decisions on both the San Bruno penalty and the Gas Transmission & Storage rate case. Also in the gas transmission case, the administrative law judge has been replaced and the schedule has been suspended. The commission also launched an order to show cause calling for PG&E to demonstrate why it should not be penalized for the ex parte communications related to the initial assignment of the judge. The ALJ issued a proposed decision and Commissioner Peterman issued an alternate decision. Both called for extended restrictions on our ability to interact with the commission and advisory staff, except at all party meetings and require a notification of even routine interactions such as data responses. Additionally, Commissioner Peterman proposed a $1 million fine and a disallowance of up to half the revenue requirement increase that would've been recovered during the delay in the gas transmission case. We've taken responsibility for the violations and understand that PG&E should be penalized, but we disagree strongly with these proposals. Silencing the company is not the answer. We believe it's a bad regulatory practice, particularly since the company self-reported and has taken responsibility for the actions. As a regulated utility, it's imperative that we be able to communicate appropriately with our regulators. And the CPUC must be able to communicate with utilities and other parties to reach informed decisions. We look to the commission to establish rules that strike the right balance going forward. But whatever their ultimate decision, we're committed to complying with it and we will work through these issues. In addition to the CPUC, both the U.S. Attorney's Office in San Francisco and the state attorney general's office have indicated they are investigating this matter. We are cooperating with the investigations, and our expectation is that this issue is going to take some time to be fully resolved. However long it takes, we're going to continue to do the right thing for our customers, for the communities that we serve and for our shareholders. That means, first of all, insisting on accountability, transparency and compliance with regulations and policies that govern our operations. It means continuing to strengthen and modernize our infrastructure and advance our operational performance through our continuous improvement efforts. We've made tremendous progress on both the electric and gas sides and we will not let up. It means advocating for resolution of the gas pipeline investigations and for penalties that are fair and proportionate. Yesterday, we filed our reply comments in the proceeding aimed at getting to that result. And it means rebuilding trust and an appropriate working relationship with the commission and other parties. We know this is going to take some time, but we are committed to it. The strength of the California regulatory model lies in the structures and policies that have been formalized over the last decade or more. It has been very successful and I don't see that changing. So with that introduction, let me turn it over to Chris to update you on our operational performance.
Christopher P. Johns:
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. As you can see on Slide 4, I'll begin my remarks with an update on our operations and then touch on an additional regulatory development for the quarter. For the last several years, we've been focused on strengthening and modernizing our infrastructure across our business. We saw some of the benefits of these investments in August when a 6.0 magnitude earthquake hit Napa Valley and resulted in significant property damage, with more than 70,000 of our customers experiencing outages. Using the data from the SmartMeters we've deployed over the last several years, our teams were able to quickly determine the extent of the outage and dispatch mobile command vehicles to rapidly establish an on-site presence. Technologies like fault location and isolation devices minimized the duration and impact of power outages on our customers, and our employees worked around the clock to restore power to all of our impacted customers generally within 24 hours. On the gas side, we addressed almost 6,000 customer calls regarding gas odors, leaks and re-lights and completed 2,500 courtesy gas safety checks in the following days. We also used our state of the art leak detection vehicles to patrol more than 200 miles of gas transmission pipeline. Individuals in the communities we serve as well as local and state officials, expressed significant appreciation for our concerted efforts following the earthquake. It's clear that the investments we've made over the past few years on both our electric and gas infrastructure, really made a difference in Napa, as did the work we've been doing on emergency preparedness. Shifting briefly to regulatory matters. Tony covered the general rate case and the pending gas investigations as well as the current state of the Gas Transmission & Storage rate case. I'll just add that on September 30 the FERC accepted our Transmission Owner 16 rate case for our electric transmission business and suspended the rates until March 1, 2015, subject to refund. As a reminder, in that case, we proposed an ROE of 11.26% along with an increased revenue requirement as we continue to make investments in our electric transmission infrastructure. So with that, I'll turn it over to Kent.
Kent M. Harvey:
Thank you, Chris. I have a lot to cover this morning. First, I plan to go through our Q3 results, which were significantly impacted by the final decision in our general rate case. I'll walk you through all of that. And then, I plan to spend some time on our outlook going forward. I'll start on Slide 5 with the overall results for Q3. Earnings from operations for the quarter were $1.73 and GAAP results were $1.71. Before I get to earnings from operations, let me just quickly address the items impacting comparability. Natural gas matters totaled $0.03 negative for the quarter, and you can see from the table at the bottom that was comprised of pipeline-related expenses of $108 million pretax, offset by insurance recoveries of $86 million during the quarter. Back to the table to the top, you'll also see that we booked $0.01 positive in environmental-related costs for the quarter, a small pickup in connection with our efforts at Hinkley, which have been treated as an item impacting comparability in prior years. Moving on to earnings from operations. Slide 6 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison with last year. As I said, the 2014 general rate case was a big driver because we booked the year-to-date impact all in Q3 when we received the final decision. The first 4 items here relate primarily to the GRC, and they total $0.77. I'm going to go through each of them. First, as a result of the GRC, our expense recovery increased $0.28 quarter-over-quarter. As you know, the past couple of years, we've been spending at levels higher than authorized, across the utility to improve operations. This item represents the impact of now recovering this higher spending level for the first 3 quarters of this year. It also offsets the negative item you saw for GRC expense recovery in Qs 1 and 2. Second, we recorded earnings on a higher authorized rate base, and this totaled $0.14. Again, this is the year-to-date impact, all recorded in Q3. Third, we had a positive $0.18 in the quarter, resulting from tax benefits related to our federal tax deduction for repairs cost. As with one of the other California utilities, our general rate case decision authorized flow-through treatment of the federal repairs deduction. The $0.18 booked to this quarter reflects the fact that our estimate of this deduction has increased due to recent IRS guidance as well as other factors affecting the size of the deduction. Again, we recorded the year-to-date impact of these benefits all in Q3. Fourth, we had an additional $0.17 pickup, mainly related to the timing of taxes and other expenses. This item was driven by the delay in the general rate case decision. And unlike the first 3 items I've covered, we expect this one to reverse in Q4. So those are the 4 components that related primarily to the GRC decision. As you see, we also had some smaller items in the quarter, another gain on SolarCity stock and a small pickup on some regulatory matters. There also was a host of miscellaneous items totaling $0.08 in the quarter, however, on a year-to-date basis, our miscellaneous items net to a negligible amount. And finally, we had share dilution of $0.05 negative. That gets you to $1.73. Suffice it to say, we had an unusual quarter with a lot going on, mostly related to the final decision in our general rate case. Now I'd like to move on to our outlook going forward. The GRC decision resolved a lot of uncertainty for the company for this year. Of course, the final outcome of the gas investigations is still pending and we anticipate the ultimate impact will be significant. But at this point in the year, it's unlikely to be a big driver of our average share count for 2014. Therefore, with the GRC resolved, we believe it now makes sense to provide 2014 guidance for earnings from operations. On Slide 7, you'll see updates to some of our key assumptions underlying guidance such as CapEx and authorized rate base. These primarily reflect the changes we previewed last quarter based on the proposed GRC decision, although we've made some other updates as well. In the upper left, you see we're assuming CapEx of roughly $5 billion this year. And in the upper right, weighted average authorized rate base of about $28 billion. There haven't been any changes in our assumptions regarding authorized return on equity and equity ratio shown in the lower left. In terms of the other factors affecting earnings from operations this year shown in the lower right, we've previously indicated that these factors should roughly net to 0 for the year. However, that was without the impact of the tax benefits associated with the repairs deduction. With these tax benefits included, we now believe that these factors taken together should result in an overall positive of roughly $0.25 per share for the year. By the way, we expect this impact to be fairly similar next year as well. Turning to Slide 8. You'll see that these assumptions lead us to provide a guidance range for earnings from operations in 2014 of between $3.45 and $3.55 per share. Again, the primary driver is the resolution of our general rate case, which provides us the opportunity to earn our authorized return on equity on a higher level of rate base in 2014. Additionally, we expect 2014 earnings from operations to reflect the impact of the tax benefits related to the repairs deductions and the other factors covered on Slide 7, which, together, should total roughly $0.25 this year. Moving on to Slide 9. You'll see we've narrowed our 2014 guidance range for the item impacting comparability for natural gas matters of between $350 million and $400 million pretax. Our previous range was $350 million to $450 million. At this stage in the year, we've tightened our range for PSEP expenses. We've also reduced and narrowed the range for non-PSEP expenses, in part due to the delays we've experienced in clearing encroachments on our pipeline rights-of-way. We've also narrowed our estimates of legal costs. As an aside, although our PSEP expense work for pressure testing is going well, we continue to find our PSEP capital work, mainly pipeline replacement, a challenge. We expect some of our PSEP capital work to be completed in 2015 rather than this year, mainly due to permitting delays. We continue to work hard to manage a variety of cost pressures affecting our capital work. On Slide 10, you can see we've narrowed our estimates for 2014 equity issuance between $800 million and $900 million, excluding resolution of the gas investigation. Our previous estimate was $800 million to $1 billion. We're bringing the estimate down a bit due to the net impact of the various items shown on this Slide 10. During Q3, we issued about $160 million of common stock, and that brought us to about $760 million issued through the end of Q3. We are not providing earnings guidance today for future years, but on Slides 11 and 12, we've updated our guidance ranges for CapEx and rate base through 2016 to reflect the final decision in our general rate case as well as current expectations of other cases. As you can see, we expect to maintain a robust capital program into the future as we continue to replace aging infrastructure as well as overlay technology on the grid. Our total CapEx is expected to remain north of $5 billion annually during this period. Our average rate base of about $28 billion in 2014 is expected to grow to more than $33 billion in 2016, and that represents a CAGR in the 9% range. I think that's it for the financials. So I'm going to stop here, and we will open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Listen, just kind of on the -- I know that we're not getting into 2015 guidance and there's a lot that has to happen before then, but is it still fair to assume with the GT&S prospective delays, that you remain confident concerning your -- a lot of ROEs of both the utilities and the gas businesses next year? Or is that a little more in question at this moment?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's still our objective for 2015, yes.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And then the timing of equity, the $800 million, $900 million for this year, that is adjusted to assume no additional resolution on the San Bruno expenses or fines between now and year end, is that correct?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, our previous guidance on equity issuance actually did not include resolution of the San Bruno penalty. It's mainly adjusted for the items we've shown on Slide 10. So we do have slightly lower CapEx, just mainly given the timing of the general rate case. Some CapEx will probably see next year as compared to this year. And remember, our original guidance for CapEx was slightly different. It was -- excuse me, for equity issuance was based on the midpoint of our prior CapEx range, and the range we're providing now is somewhat lower for 2014. We also have somewhat lower unrecovered gas costs. I just went through our guidance there for the unrecovered gas costs coming down slightly. We did get a depreciation rate change, not what we asked for in the general rate case, but some improvement in depreciation rate. And then on the other hand, there was -- somewhat mitigating that was, the GRC decision was delayed. So we've gotten less cash now through revenues this year as compared to what we had originally contemplated. So the net of all that is to bring down the upper end of the range a bit.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And I guess just on the interveners last night with their comments on the pod. There seems to be a huge amount of debate ultimately on the total amount of money they would like for you to hand over. What do you guys see as kind of the next steps from here? And if the number ends are coming at where the pod recommended, how are you guys evaluating your kind of legal recourse as next steps given the significant penalties associated?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, obviously, we've got to see the numbers. We yesterday filed additional comments objecting to pieces of the decision. But quite honestly, on the flip side, there is some benefit to getting finality and getting things done. So we -- the way we've been playing is, we'll take a look at the totality, the circumstances when we get that decision and then have to decide whether we want to appeal pieces of it or whether we just try and move on from there.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
So first question, if you could clarify just a little bit, is the 2015 -- I want to use the word guidance, but the view on taxes, shall we say, can you break that out a little bit more granularly in terms of what the $0.25 is comprised of? And then subsequently, not to read too far further, but 2016 as well, is there expectation for that as well just given the timeline associated with rate cases?
Kent M. Harvey:
Julien, this is Kent. The $0.25 that I provided on the call, the roughly $0.25, is for the combination of all the factors that are listed on Slide 7. Those other factors affecting earnings from operations, but the big change from last quarter are the tax benefits. The tax benefits, we do see them being triggered by the outcome of the general rate case, and so we do see them existing through the rate case periods, so that's through 2016. We haven't broken down the other items for you previously, and I don't intend to at this point in the year either. We've not -- I'm not providing a specific number for next year, but I was indicating that we thought of a similar order of magnitude for next year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
But no necessary composition, should we say?
Kent M. Harvey:
No. I don't think it makes sense. We really need to see what those other factors are going to look like next year on that slide. And the tax benefits again, similar order of magnitude next year or this year.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Great. And then secondly, just a little different. On the transmission ROE front, you provided some commentary here briefly in the slide. Can you elaborate a little bit, what kind of ROE should we be thinking about going forward coming out of this?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, Julien, our guidance for this year was assuming essentially on average for our whole business, 10 4 [ph]. As Chris indicated, we've requested a higher amount from the FERC in our TO16 filing, 11 26 [ph]. We have to see how that case proceeds, but in general, I would expect when we do get around to providing guidance for next year, I would say overall for our company assuming something around 10 4 [ph] probably makes sense. We don't know how the FERC stuff is going to come out. It's still early in that process.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
So you're not reading necessarily out of the FERC decisions in the last quarter, any new changes to the request that you put in? That's really what I was getting at.
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes. Not at this point.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
A couple of questions on the rate base and CapEx numbers. First, I was just curious sort of versus the last quarter's numbers, the generation rate base seemed to kicked up a couple of hundred million dollars in 2014. Any explanation sort of what drove that? I thought the number last quarter was going to -- what you were expecting from the GRC.
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes, Jonathan, this is Kent. You're right. It is a bit different. I think one of the factors there was we had some adjustments related to our utility-owned photovoltaic. So that program kind of completed, but we had to true up some numbers in that. Otherwise, we didn't see any significant changes in our overall results.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay, all right. My second one, if I look at the rate base forecast, the CapEx forecast. The CapEx is obviously a little bit lower this year, but then it's $400 million or $500 million higher of the midpoint versus sort of GRC midpoint from the last quarter slides in both '15 and '16, and yet your rate base forecast is essentially unchanged, a tiny bit higher in '16, but -- so you seem to be spending $0.5 billion more of CapEx each year but ending up at the same place on rate base. Can you explain what's going on there?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Yes, Jonathan, this is Dinyar. We're actually a little lower on CapEx in 2014 because of the delay in the general rate case. And also the way the attrition revenues come out, they don't result in kind of like an even CapEx program, but the way we spend our capital is a little more even. So that's what's causing that phenomenon that you're seeing.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
But why would that be a change versus what you showed us last quarter for the GRC sort of estimate?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Well, last quarter, what we showed you is what the CapEx would have been with the -- implied by the general rate case decision. So it would've been really tracking whatever the revenues that were implied in the GRC whereas here we're showing you what we think our CapEx spending profile is going to be. So over the 3-year rate case cycle, they should be pretty much the same. It's just that in each year they look a little different.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
So is it essentially the kind of delay effectively compounds a little into the future?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I want to follow on John's question a little bit, because if I just look at it on a cumulative basis, and I'm comparing Slide 10 from your last quarter's deck to Slide 11 of today's deck. The total CapEx number, if I just kind of sum it up is actually a higher number in today's deck than it was in Slide 10. That would almost make it seem like rate base by the end of the period would be a higher number unless there's some other offset like D&A or maybe an assumption around bonus or higher add set. I just want to make sure I understand that. It's one thing, if it's lower in '14 and higher in '16, but if I just do the sum of the 3, it seems like it's a higher number in terms of the total CapEx over the 3-year period, and yet the rate base number isn't up by nearly the same amount.
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Well, Michael, we actually recalculated our rate base based on the GRC and all of the other factors in there. And one of the things we did do is we did take -- we did kind of relook at our deferred taxes as well. So that is the component of the adjustments. We can go over it in more detail, but essentially, the way to think about it is that what we showed previously is what would have been implied by the GRC PD, but we didn't adjust for anything else. And this time around, we've pretty much looked at the totality of the things that we see coming up and we've made those changes.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. Okay, I'll follow up off-line.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Hopefully, we'll get the main San Bruno penalty result soon, but there's still kind of reverberations in the coming years. I wanted to try to get a little bit of clarity on those. Is there any update on the federal case that was brought by the U.S. attorney?
Anthony F. Earley:
Let me ask Hyun Park to comment on it, our General Counsel.
Hyun Park:
There is really not much update. We have a status conference that's scheduled for November 13. And at that status conference, we may get a better sense of the schedule for the case going forward.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. Have you been notified of any legal action related to the ex parte communications?
Anthony F. Earley:
We're aware that both the U.S. Attorney's Office and the California Attorney General's office are investigating the circumstances. I said, we're fully cooperating with both those investigations.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Could you just update us briefly on the extent of delay in the GT&S case that you expect as a result of the ex parte?
Anthony F. Earley:
We can't speculate on the extent of the delay. We did get a new administrative law judge in the case, but the case had not gone to hearings, the formal hearings yet. So we're early on in the process -- I don't know if we have any further information on the exact days, but I think we expect that shortly we'll get a schedule.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. And then final question on the PSEP expenditures. Do you have any estimates of what we'll been looking at? Well, I shouldn't say PSEP but unrecovered expenditures related to the gas work. Do you have any estimates of what we'll be looking at next year?
Kent M. Harvey:
Hugh, this is Kent. Really, the items that we have talked about continuing into next year and frankly, through 2017 is the costs associated with our efforts to clear our rights-of-way. We do anticipate that we'll have some continuing legal costs. Obviously, these proceedings have gone on for some time. And then the significant question mark is really sort of the outcome of the fines and penalties part of it for the natural gas matters because it's looking like those could be booked beyond this year or 2, it just depends on the timing.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Okay. And just on the rights-of-way, what's your latest view in terms of outlet?
Anthony F. Earley:
Chris, do you want to...
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes. We've -- we continue to move forward with that program, and really we're in the same position that we were in the second quarter when we said that we don't anticipate exceeding the $500 million number that we've given. There's some timing issues that we've got right now, but we still anticipate to being able to complete the plan on our original schedule.
Hyun Park:
I just want to make one correction. I said November 13 for the status conference. It's actually November 3.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Kit Konolige with BGC.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Do you guys have any sense if the commission feels that they should await a replacement for President Peevey before making decisions in either? Well, obviously, there will be a replacement before the GT&S case, but before the San Bruno issues are resolved?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, from a legal standpoint, the commission can make a decision with the 3 commissioners, need a majority vote, so 2 commissioners can vote out a case. We have no indication that they're going to wait until they get a replacement.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
And has there been any discussion publicly of who the new commissioner might be appointed to replace Peevey and/or if the governor would be interested in any of the current commissioners as the new President? Or would we expect the President and a replacement to be named at the same time?
Anthony F. Earley:
Again, from a legal standpoint, the governor can select one of the sitting commissioners and name him or her chair, but we're just not going to speculate on who might be the replacements.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And one final question on financing. Kent, can you give us any sense of the timing of equity issuance over the rest of this year and then into next year? I assume it's dependent on the outcome of several of these cases. Can you give us a sense of how much is dependent on what?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, Kit, for this year, we've issued $760 million through the end of the third quarter. So I would anticipate putting aside the resolution of the gas investigations that we would just rely on our internal programs for the remainder of the year in order to achieve our range of $800 million to $900 million. So we're pretty far along in that program for this year. The uncertainty really is the timing and the form of the resolution of the gas investigations. And as we've previously talked about, depending upon the variety of how that can play out, the timing and the form of our financing can be very, very different. And so we're just going to have to see if the presiding officer decision is voted out or something different.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Yes, I just sort of wanted to follow-up on that. One of the transmission pipeline operations proposed deadline extension. A lot of the issues that they sort of mentioned there would seem to maybe apply to San Bruno. When do you think we might get more clarity as to what they might do with respect to the review process? And just in general, do we have any other sense about how the San Bruno case itself might -- with the timing associated with it?
Anthony F. Earley:
Paul, could you clarify what you're telling me. In terms of the San Bruno case, all of the materials now have been submitted by the parties, so it's ripe for decision.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Right. I understand, but I mean it seems that there were 2 commissioners who've recused themselves. You have a couple of commissioners asking for reviews, right? I'm just wondering whether or not that might lead to more of a delay? Or do you guys think that, that won't have an impact?
Anthony F. Earley:
The reviews -- the requests there are around [ph] alternate decisions, and that's a fairly normal process. Commissioners can, in fact, propose alternatives and the commission generally works through those, whether it's days, weeks or longer, it's hard to speculate, but I think the commission, generally when they get to this stage, moves along pretty quickly, but we can't predict how long it's going to be.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I mean, I just wanted to follow-up on that because it's a little unusual just the case itself, but okay. And then just in terms of the ex parte and all that stuff, is it correct that you guys -- is my understanding correct that you guys have done your internal review subject to pretty much all of the proceedings that are going on at the PG -- that you guys have going at the CPUC and at least yourself investigation is over, and we're not going to probably hear much more from that at least?
Anthony F. Earley:
Yes, so -- I mean, we've reviewed a huge number of e-mail communications focusing on those between the PG&E and the commission because that's where you'd have an ex parte communication. But as I said before, there are investigations underway. We're cooperating with those investigations, and it's likely we're going to have to undertake additional reviews that will be necessary in the context of those investigations. So I can't say we're not reviewing any further e-mails. It's going to take some time to get through that full resolution as we work through those investigations. I can't say in the meantime, we've taken the appropriate actions to self-report all the violations that we've identified. We held people accountable and we're working to create a best-in-class regulatory compliance program, so we don't have incidents of this kind in the future.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
I'm sure you are, Tony. I guess, what I was wondering was -- so in other words, the investigation -- I guess, the investigation continues insofar as your cooperation with these other investigations are going on? Or are you guys having a separate internal investigation that's continuing with respect to the CPUC interaction?
Anthony F. Earley:
I think the way I'd characterize is what we're looking at is trying to stay ahead of those investigations. You don't want to be surprised and -- either in direct response or drawing some conclusions about where those questions may come. That's what we're looking at largely.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
I was wondering about the $0.77, the catch-up from the GRC. How much of that was third quarter such that we get a real comp against the $0.88? So we see that kind of year-over-year impact in terms of the appreciation from the GRC decision?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
This is Dinyar. I think the best way to think about it, let's go through each of those components. The first one, the 2014 GRC expense recovery, that is a 3-quarter catch-up. So that is really for 3 quarters worth. So we should expect to see one more quarter of that in Q4. And again, the way to think about this is that this represents overspending that we were doing in previous years to improve operations, and so it's just getting revenues to recover those costs. I will say embedded in that $0.28 is about $0.08 worth of previously kind of like a timing delay from the previous 2 quarters, as Kent mentioned. So if you kind of look at it, it's on a year-to-date basis $0.21. The next item, the growth in rate base earnings. Again, that's a 3-quarters catch-up. And so you can expect to see one more quarter of that next quarter. Similarly with the tax benefit of the $0.18. On the $0.17, as Kent said, of timing of taxes and other expenses, we expect that to fully reverse in Q4. So that will be the way to think of each of those components.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
And are each of these components just about evenly spread such that we could take, say, the $0.28 net of that $0.08 adjustment and just divide it by 3 to get an idea of what Q4 would be and to get an idea what your third quarter was?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
That's true for the second and the third component. The first one, remember, we actually had some under recovery in Q1 and Q2. But the way to think about the first one, the $0.28, is that it's $0.21 on a year-to-date basis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay, right. And then with the FERC proposal, TO16. Given we've had the ISO New England and the MISO thoughts at least from FERC, what's your thinking now regarding TO16? What's the nature of the conversations now that we have some more recent, I don't want to say precedent, but certainly, thoughts from the FERC?
Kent M. Harvey:
This is Kent, Travis. I just think it's still -- I view it as still fairly early on in the FERC process. I think there's been a reasonably encouraging trend at the FERC. And certainly, with the New England case, it seems as if the FERC is open to not applying the DCF model so mechanically. There's an acknowledgment that there are shortcomings and there are always anomalies in the market and those need to be considered. And so there's an overall sort of question about reasonableness, and I think that's really healthy and I hope we're going to end up with more reasonable outcomes going forward, but we haven't gone through our case and we haven't seen a whole lot of cases yet, post these developments at the FERC, so we'll see how that goes.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Did you use the DCF, primarily the 11 26 [ph]?
Kent M. Harvey:
We do use the DCF in our analysis.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
A couple of questions. As it relates to the tax benefits that you're seeing in '14, and you pointed to them showing up in '15, will they continue into '16? Or is it just going through '15?
Kent M. Harvey:
This is Kent, Rajeev. Yes, we do expect that the tax benefits will continue through this general rate case cycle, which is through 2016.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. And would the amount be similar to what you noted in '15 for '16?
Kent M. Harvey:
I would say, kind of on an order of magnitude, but I wouldn't want to get more precise on that at this point.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. And then Kent, this is another question for you. As it relates to providing an updated longer-term financial outlook, what are you envisioning once you're hopefully done with the investigation on San Bruno and the penalties et cetera, as well as maybe the GT&S case?
Kent M. Harvey:
I continue to believe that the key milestone for us is the resolution of the San Bruno penalties. And so that's really the milestone that I'm looking for before I would consider doing more of a longer-term outlook at this point.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. And just one last question. Tough to ask in the complexity of the issue. As it relates to the proposed decision on the ex parte issue, did that cover just what you disclosed on the GT&S side? Or does it cover on all e-mails that you disclosed in ex parte communications, if that makes sense?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes. And the judge -- administrative law judge made it clear, the focus that was just the GT&S issues. I think we submitted the second round of issues just right before the hearing in that case, so they kept that segregated. We don't know what they're going to do with the other filing.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. So no idea on timeline et cetera, as it relates to resolving that aspect?
Kent M. Harvey:
We don't have any timeline on that.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
I was just -- when you look at 2015 CapEx, it's a pretty tight range, $5.4 billion to $5.6 billion. Is there a way you could give us the, I guess, equity issuance forecast for '15 as you did -- you gave us for '14, which does not reflect the resolution of the gas investigation since it's a pretty tight range and if you just exclude the gas investigation, what you think the equity needs would be?
Kent M. Harvey:
Anthony, this is Kent. We're not at this stage yet for giving equity issuance for 2015, but I would point you to something we have been suggesting to people as sort of a shorthand way of understanding, sort of the underlying equity needs resulting from our rate base growth, and that is to look at our year-over-year growth in rate base and taking that difference and looking at 52% of it. That's the amount that needs to be financed with equity. You'd want to take away from that the fact that we retain some of our earnings. So you'd want to look at our earnings less the dividends for that year, and what remains after you net that amount is generally the equity that needs to be raised externally. And so that gives you a good ballpark estimate when you look year-over-year.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Does that exclude then -- is that calculation -- you don't really then include any benefit from deferred taxes, right?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, it does essentially because the rate base figure reflects changes in deferred taxes. I think implicitly, it's in there. So it's just an easier approach to take. The other thing to just keep in mind is whatever unrecovered costs we have, that's usually the other increment of equity needs.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium.
Ashar Khan:
Kent, I just wanted to -- I guess, just so I understand. So you came up with the guidance range, and from that you're saying that $0.25 of it are related to certain tax matters primarily and others, but that $0.25 or roughly approximate to that would remain there for '14, '15 and '16 through this rate case cycle?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes, I indicated a similar order of magnitude for the tax piece in '15 and '16. On Slide 7, however, we show a number of factors that in 2014 are affecting earnings from operations. Those will change year-over-year. And so you'd want to look at those as well and make your own assessment.
Ashar Khan:
Well, is there anything in one of those that reverses itself? Because it seems to be -- like the way you went over them right was basically majority of them were relating to picking things up on the GRC, which seems like to be a normal part of picking up the rate case.
Kent M. Harvey:
Some of the other factors that are shown on the bottom right part of Slide 7 include under earning on our Gas Transmission & Storage business, which were hoped to address through the GT&S case. We also have the monetizing of the shares of SolarCity, and to date, we've done about 2/3 of those shares this year. So you shouldn't expect that that continues at the same pace in subsequent years. Those are just some examples of how some of these items will change year-over-year.
Ashar Khan:
Okay. Fair enough.
Operator:
Our next question is a follow-up question from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Kent, sorry, just a bit on the same topic. I just want to clarify. Previously, you've said you're not asking for -- about -- for recovery of about $50 million of annual expense in the GT&S, and that you would -- you would hope to be able to offset that. Is the sort of $0.25 part of how you offset that under earning? Or is that -- is it sort of -- is the $0.25 net of that starting point?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, let me just unpack that a little bit. So again, what I'm saying for 2014 is all of those factors in the lower right, on average, should be roughly $0.25 for this year. Since you know that last quarter we had a guidance for those factors of roughly net to 0, your conclusion is that the tax benefits are the main driver there of that $0.25, and I think that's reasonable. I've also indicated that in subsequent years, 2015 and 2016, that magnitude of the tax benefits will be comparable, similar order of magnitude. And so I'm tracking with you to that point. I do agree that we have not requested all of our costs in the Gas Transmission & Storage case and your estimate of roughly $50 million is reasonable to me as well. So I think it follows that the tax benefits could offset that amount, but there are a lot of other items in our financial results that could also offset it. So I wouldn't necessarily just pair those, but I think that that's a reasonable way to think about it.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Slightly differently. I mean, are you intending to offset that $50-odd million of unrecovered expense absent tax benefits?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes. I mean, we'd like to, overall, be able to earn our authorized return. The tax benefits we'd like to have as an increment, but we have to -- we still haven't actually gotten through the Gas Transmission & Storage case.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Andy Levi with Avon Capital.
Andrew Levi:
I thought I was clear on this tax thing, but now I actually have a question. So just to kind of ask the question another way. So really all year, you were saying that 2015, you should be able to earn your allowed return, and whether you do or not, we'll see and I have faith that you will be able to. But when you said that earlier in the year, did it contemplate this tax benefit from the repairs method?
Kent M. Harvey:
Andy, I don't know if it did or not at this point. The tax benefit is a fairly recent development, so probably not. I guess you guys are asking similar questions multiple ways, and to me, it's pushing me more and more towards sort of guidance of earnings, and I'd like to sort of leave things the way I've said them to date, which is that we would expect that the benefit from the taxes going forward should be roughly comparable to this year and the next couple of years and that we do still hope to earn our overall authorized return for the company.
Andrew Levi:
Okay. And let me just follow-up. So again, I'll ask it one other way, just to torture you. So let's -- it doesn't matter what the number was. I assume $3 in earnings for next year, it doesn't matter whether that's correct or incorrect, and it had not contemplated this tax benefit. I would just basically add that to whatever number I thought it was because it's incremental to whatever that number is -- I mean, is that kind of the way to think about it?
Kent M. Harvey:
The tax benefit is a significant change from last quarter on the list of the other factors that are on Slide 7.
Andrew Levi - Caris & Company, Inc., Research Division:
Okay. I think I got it now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jesse Laudon with Nexus Asset Management.
Craig Martin Lucas:
It's actually Craig Lucas. I just wanted to ask a question about this ex parte communication issue. Just -- I'm sorry that, if it's redundant, I apologize for that, but I just want to be sure about something that -- so right now the case centers around the GPS case and the ex parte communication there, and that's because it was only really there and regarding the gas pressure issue that you found in the ex parte communication when you reviewed all the e-mails, is that correct?
Anthony F. Earley:
That's correct. We've reported all the ex parte communications that we have discovered in our review.
Operator:
There are currently no additional questions waiting from the phone line.
Dinyar B. Mistry:
Okay, if that's the case, thank you all for your interest and for joining us this morning.
Executives:
Sara A. Cherry - Vice President of Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee Christopher P. Johns - Former President and Director Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President Thomas E. Bottorff - Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Hyun Park - Senior Vice President and General Counsel Dinyar B. Mistry - Vice President and Controller
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup Inc, Research Division Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Ashar Khan
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to introduce your hostess, Ms. Sara Cherry. Thank you, and have a good conference, You may proceed, Ms. Cherry
Sara A. Cherry:
Thank you, Josh. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I'll remind you that our discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2013 Annual Report. And with that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, thanks, Sara; and good morning, everyone. I'll start off my remarks today by touching on a few items of importance, and then Chris is going to cover the status of our operations and regulatory matters and Kent will conclude with the financials. So I'll start with Slide 3. We remain focused on our mission of operating a safe, reliable and affordable utility for our customers. Our objectives are to resolve the gas issues, position the company for long-term success and partner effectively with others to shape policy and create value for our customers. Let me start with the gas issues. Unfortunately, we still haven't received the presiding officer's decision in the pending gas investigations. Although the record was complete last October, the proceeding continues to take a long time to be resolved. In fact just this week you probably saw that the city of San Bruno filed some motions raising questions about the propriety of communications between PG&E and the CPUC. I want to be clear that we are absolutely committed to conduct ourselves in an ethical manner and in compliance with CPUC rules at all times, and we take seriously any questions about the conduct of PG&E employees. As any regulated utility does, we communicate with the CPUC almost constantly on a wide range of issues. To ascertain whether our communications were appropriate, we will carefully review the documents in question and will take appropriate actions. Looking at the big picture as we approach the fourth anniversary of the San Bruno accident, we look to the commission to bring these proceedings to a close and to do so in a way that acknowledges PG&E's unprecedented response since the accident. Moving on to the federal arena. As you know, we expected the U.S. Attorney to file additional charges against the company. And on Wednesday, they issued a superseding indictment. Essentially, there are 3 primary changes in the indictment. It added 15 additional charges under the Pipeline Safety Act and referenced an additional code section. They have also alleged that the utility obstructed the NTSB's investigation of the accident based on a letter we submitted to the NTSB, which is on the NTSB's website and which we still stand by. And finally, for purposes of determining the maximum fine, they have alleged, with no details, that the utility derived $281 million in gains and that there were $565 million in losses. Let me just state that based on all the evidence that we have seen we still do not believe any of these criminal charges or fines are warranted. Moving on from the gas issues. In a key step forward for the company, we did receive the proposed decision on our 2014 General Rate Case. You'll recall that the GRC sets base revenues through 2016 for 3 key parts of our company
Christopher P. Johns:
Thanks, Tony; and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my remarks with an update on our operations and then touch on some additional regulatory developments from the quarter. Starting with gas operations. On Slide 4, you can see that we continued to execute unparalleled levels of work on our gas pipelines as we enhance the safety and integrity of our system. In May, our gas business received 2 international certifications
Kent M. Harvey:
Thanks, Chris, and good morning. Q2 was a pretty straightforward quarter in terms of our financials. So I'll briefly walk you through that and then cover some implications of the proposed decision in our general rate case. Slide 5 summarizes the results for the second quarter. Earnings from operations were $0.69, and GAAP results were $0.57. The item impacting comparability for natural gas matters totaled $0.12 negative, and you can see our Q2 pipeline-related expenses of $97 million pretax in the table at the bottom. We expect higher pipeline-related expenses in the second half of the year when the majority of the work is planned. You can also see that we didn't report any insurance recoveries in Q2. However, we have been in discussions with insurers about recovery of our remaining claims. Slide 6 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations and the key differences from Q2 results last year. About $0.04 negative is due to the fact that without a final decision in our pending general rate case, we're not booking sufficient revenues to cover our capital-related expenses for much of the business. You'll remember we had a similar impact in Q1. After the commission issues a final decision in the general rate case, which will be retroactive to January 1, we'd expect to recover the revenues associated with these costs, plus earn a return on a larger authorized rate base in 2014. Another $0.04 negative is due to the increase in shares outstanding. And $0.03 is due to miscellaneous items, including the absence of some regulatory pickups we had in Q2 last year. We've actually included within the miscellaneous total a gain from the disposition of some shares in SolarCity, which we obtained in connection with tax equity investments we made at the corporation a few years back. So that's the summary of quarterly results. As you know, pending resolution of the general rate case and the gas investigations of the PUC, we've not provided guidance for earnings from operations; but we have given you some key inputs, such as ranges for CapEx and rate base. I want to spend a few minutes talking about what the implications for those ranges would be if the proposed decision in the general rate case were approved as is. If you turn to Slide 7, I'll start with CapEx. Our guidance range for our 2014 CapEx has been $5 billion to $6 billion. The upper end of that range reflects the CapEx level requested in our various regulatory filings, and the lower end of the range reflects our 2013 spend with a few adjustments for things like the conclusion of our Cornerstone Program and our utility-owned photovoltaic program. Compared to that range, the General Rate Case proposed decision would imply total CapEx of about $5.3 billion for this year. To the right, you see the same information for authorized rate base. Compared to an original range of $28 billion to $28.5 billion, the proposed decision would imply a 2014 rate base at the lower end of that range, right about $28 billion. The main reason for this is that the proposed decision assumes a lower level of 2013 CapEx than we forecasted, resulting in a lower starting point for rate base in 2014. If the proposed decision is approved as is, we wouldn't expect to true-up this difference until our next General Rate Case. A heads-up because it's confused some people. If you actually look at the proposed decision, the rate base numbers for electric distribution and electric generation will not match this table here since we've included some items that are not -- that are recovered outside of the General Rate Case, such as the remaining rate base on the conventional meters that we have replaced with SmartMeters and our utility-owned photovoltaic installation. Finally, at the bottom right, we've previously highlighted the underearning on our gas transmission business, which when netted against other factors, such as incentive revenues for energy efficiency programs, was expected to negatively affect 2014 operating earnings by roughly $0.10. We now hope to fully offset this impact in 2014 and eliminate this negative $0.10. The drivers for this change include higher gas transmission revenues resulting from increased gas-fired generation given our dry hydro conditions in the state and the disposition of SolarCity shares I mentioned before. Turning to Slide 8. You'll see the estimated range for our item impacting comparability for natural gas matters in 2014, which we're maintaining at $350 million to $450 million pretax. The settlement we reached in connection with the Pipeline Safety Enhancement Plan update filing, which Chris mentioned, by itself would increase our unrecovered expenses by about $23 million this year. However, we continue to believe that total unrecovered expenses, including the PSEP settlement, will fall within our guidance range of $350 million to $450 million. At the bottom of the slide is a reminder that these figures exclude future insurance recoveries, which, of course, we would net against these costs, and any additional fines or penalties resulting from the gas investigations that we've not yet accrued. Moving on to Slide 9. We continue to target between $800 million and $1 billion of equity issuance this year. This range excludes any additional fines or penalties resulting from the gas investigations which would be incremental to the range. During Q2, we issued just under $300 million of common stock. That brings to about $600 million through the first half of the year, so we're well along on our financing plan for the year. Finally, on Slides 10 and 11, we've shown our guidance ranges for CapEx and rate base through 2016 and what the implications for those ranges would be if the proposed decision in the General Rate Case were approved as is. In all cases, the ranges implied by the proposed decision would fall within the ranges we've previously provided. For example, on Slide 11, the proposed decision would result in a range for 2016 authorized rate base of $34 billion -- $33 billion to $34 billion, which compares to our existing range of $32 billion to $35 billion. We would very much like to receive a final decision in the General Rate Case next month. In the meantime, we hope that this information is helpful to you in understanding the potential impact of the proposed decision. I'm going to stop there, and we can now open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with ISI Group.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
How many shares of SolarCity do you own and at what price?
Kent M. Harvey:
Greg, this is Kent. I'm going to answer that question as follows. The disposition that we did in this past quarter represents roughly 1/3 of our total holdings, so we will have additional dispositions in future periods.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. So you're not at liberty to disclose your holdings or the value?
Kent M. Harvey:
We've chosen not to do so.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, fair enough. Can you restate -- I was distracted a little bit, 7 companies reporting today -- what you said about there's a $0.10 expense this year that you're -- be able to offset? Can you restate that, please?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes, Greg, if you go back to Slide 7, this is really where I talked about this, and it's the lower right-hand part of this slide, and it was these other factors that affect our earnings from operations. And previously we had provided the indication that when you look at all these other factors, the underearning in our gas transmission and storage business but also other factors like energy efficiency revenues that we expect to receive, when you look at all of that, we've said it -- we expected it for this year to have roughly a negative $0.10 impact on earnings from operations in 2014. And what I said earlier today is that in light of the fact that we are experiencing higher gas transmission revenues just given the really dry hydro conditions in the state and the fact that a lot of the gas-fired generators are being -- are experiencing higher demand than was previously expected and the fact that we're monetizing some shares in SolarCity, those are a few of the factors that we hope will allow us to offset that negative $0.10 for 2014.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. But should -- and I know you haven't given guidance for this year or for future years, but should we assume in a base case that you're unable to offset that negative $0.10 in future years and that this is sort of an anomaly?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, Greg, our objective next year is when we hope to resolve the Gas Transmission & Storage Rate Case and -- therefore, our objective is to earn our authorized return next year at the gas transmission business going forward on an operating basis. So that's what we expect will be different in future periods.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. So that could mitigate or eliminate the drag?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's correct.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, great. Can you comment on what the legal path is for resolving the accusations made by the City of San Bruno with regard to the emails, whether that has to go through the ALJs writing the PODs or some other venue and what impact it might have on the timing of a final decision?
Christopher P. Johns:
Greg, this is Chris. Right now, what the next steps in the timeline are is that barring any kind of ruling otherwise from the ALJs the parties will all file responses within about 15 days or by August 12. And then following that, it's really up to the ALJs or the commission, and they could rule or issue a schedule for briefings and hearings if necessary. So there's not a firm schedule until they decide what that would look like. Right now, nobody's asked for -- obviously a delay in the PODs, and so it's hard to speculate as to what impact it might or might not have. But we still believe that the commission will move forward with the proposed decisions as quickly as possible.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
So the issuance of the proposed decisions is independent from what's going on with this issue? Or are they linked? I'm a little confused.
Christopher P. Johns:
Well, there's not necessarily an absolute link other than they are part -- they were filed as part of this process, and the ALJs and the Commission have some discretion as to they could rule on this before they do the proposed decisions; they could include them in the proposed decisions, and they potentially could keep them separate.
Greg Gordon - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. So the next step is within the next 15 days, people will file a response?
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes, that's the only thing that we know for sure.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
I want to first just get a little clarity here. So you have range of equity, and in light of the PD, how are you thinking about that? Just if you could comment specifically with regards to depreciation and accelerated depreciation. Is there any kind of thinking within that range you could provide perhaps? I'll leave it broad.
Kent M. Harvey:
Julien, this is Kent. A couple of hundred million dollars range for our equity needs we think is kind of a reasonable range to have even halfway through the year. So the fact that we got the proposed decision in the General Rate Case, it provided some additional improvement in depreciation rate but certainly not our full request, and our original range assumed no increase in the depreciation rate. So there's a slight positive from that. But another underlying assumption behind our original range of $800 million to $1 billion for equity needs was also that we get a timely resolution of the General Rate Case, and, obviously, it's dragged on longer than we had anticipated. And so it actually has not been reflected in our rates yet. So as a result, from a cash flow perspective, that's been a slight negative. And so those, I would say, are somewhat offsetting, and that's one of the reasons why we're very comfortable still with our $800 million to $1 billion range.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Excellent. And then if you could elaborate for a second. On transmission, obviously, you have TO15 in the bag. You're looking at the TO16. If you could -- as you're thinking about the resolution of that case and looking forward in the context of the latest decision in New England, has that changed your thinking at all? And how do you think about the median versus midpoint methodology that I suppose nominally is still out there?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, we do believe that the policy at the FERC is in transition. And I think in the New England case, the decision indicates that mechanically applying the DCF model has some shortcomings and that you do need to consider, for example, anomalies in the market and that the ultimate result should be reasonable. So based on that, we're hopeful that we can expect a little bit more flexibility than we've seen in the past. But it's still early on.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Excellent. And then lastly, in your comments, you've mentioned a couple times the impact of hydro. Are you seeing much in terms of your own portfolio? And then specifically, as you think about customer inflation, et cetera, I mean, how much of an impact could -- does this have this year and, more importantly, could this have in subsequent years as you're seeing it?
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes, Julien, this is Chris. In the last -- this last year has been third driest hydro season in the last 119 years. And so what we've seen is an increase in the need to use the marketplace to obtain power for our customers during parts of the season. We still have enough hydro to really hit at the extreme parts and use that to offset costs. But what that has resulted in, in conjunction also with some of the rising gas prices is, is that we're seeing higher costs for electricity here. And so, obviously, that will have an upward pressure on our rates with our customers either later this year or into next year. Depending on timing, we may just put it in as part of our next year annual true-up if it doesn't get too high.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Got you. But I don't sense any over-worry about what that might do to end user rates. It's probably...
Christopher P. Johns:
We're, obviously, always concerned about our customers' rates and any impact on it, but we have this in the General Rate Case. And all of that we're trying to consider together, what that looks like to our customers.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
On the $0.10 that you have now offset with the transmission revenues and the SolarCity monetization, can you split that out between the 2?
Kent M. Harvey:
I'd just say in terms of the SolarCity monetization it was worth a few cents during the quarter, and I think -- the gas transmission revenue is more of a gradual thing during the year.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And I guess on the SolarCity thing, it -- that's -- whatever your stake is, it's not enough to meaningfully kind of impact on the cash side your financing needs?
Kent M. Harvey:
No, it's not a huge driver from a cash perspective.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And then maybe just on the San Bruno proposed decision, I assume you've gotten no indication of when the ALJs may issue a proposed decision?
Anthony F. Earley:
Yes, that's correct, Steve. Anything we'd say will be speculation. But as I said, the record has been closed now for 10 months, and we certainly are hoping to get a decision sometime in the near future.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And just -- could you maybe just talk a bit little more operationally how you're doing on your kind of overall electric gas reliability this year, also on your pressure testing and all your other work?
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes, this is Chris. On the electric side, we are in the midst of a sixth straight year of record-setting reliability for PG&E. We continue to make the appropriate investments, and we're seeing great results in terms of reducing the number of outages and then the duration of those outages. And then on the gas side, we continue to do unparalleled work. We're testing more pipes, replacing more pipe, putting in more valves, validating the maximum allowable operating procedure than anybody in the country right now, and that continues to move along very well. We do our periodic updates of our PSEP program, and we're on schedule. There's a couple of projects, smaller ones, that may still slip into 2015. But otherwise, we're comfortable that we're on track.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Curious. So the SolarCity shares, you said you acquired through a tax equity structure. Do you have any other similar investments that have -- maybe might be comparable that you could also monetize?
Kent M. Harvey:
Jonathan, this is Kent. I mentioned that the disposition we did in this past quarter was roughly about 1/3 of our overall holdings. And so in terms of -- there are additional shares SolarCity stock. But other than that, no, I don't see anything comparable in terms of our holdings at the corporation.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay, so it's a non -- SolarCity is a sort of a one-off thing actually?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's correct.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
If we look out kind of 3 to 5 years, I wonder if you can give us the landscape for renewable energy development right now on the electric side, in your service territory. And then second to that, with the other opportunities, whether it's transmission, distribution, even owning some renewable generation, what that outlook looks like and growth opportunities there.
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, I'll start off and then maybe Chris can follow up on some of the details. But we are very optimistic and have said repeatedly we will hit the State goal of 33% renewables by 2020. We're in the high 20% range now, and we've done a lot of hard work to figure out how to integrate those renewables into the system. Many of you have seen the famous or infamous duck curve that's out there, and our folks have done a lot of work on figuring how to manage the system where we have renewables coming in that we don't control that depend upon whether the wind is blowing or the sun is out. And I'm really pleased with operationally how we are managing this, and I see the ability to get to that 33% number. Chris, you want to comment on opportunities we see in transmission and other things?
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes, as we move forward, we don't see ourselves investing in any renewables in any time in the future. But they will still come online, and we'll do most of that through contracting. I think as you look down the road and you look where the industry is headed, obviously, we need to continue to modernize our infrastructure both on the transmission side and on the distributor side for electric and making sure that we're able to accommodate all the new rooftop solar panels, the storage that's going to come online at some point, electric vehicles. And all of those things continue to provide us with opportunities to upgrade and modernize the system. And so although we have not given any guidance as to what our CapEx looks like beyond this year and what you've seen in the proposals for our GT&S case and our GRC, we know that we're got an older infrastructure and it needs upgraded, and we'll continue to do that so that we can make sure our customers can handle their energy needs in the way they'd like.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay, great. And you piqued my interest. What are some of the ways that you guys are managing that duck curve?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, it's a whole range of strategies. One is more accurate forecasting. So we've been developing models that give us a better idea of what to expect day-to-day. We're also working with a number of the suppliers. We conduct a periodic bidding process to get new renewables as we gradually work our way up to 33%. And more and more, we are trying to incorporate in those contracts the ability to curtail production when we don't need it so we can manage the matching of the demand with the available electricity.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Just I want to touch base on things that when we get past this General Rate Case and past the GT&S case won't necessarily be recovered in the rate structure until kind of the next round of either GRC or GT&S rate cases. Can you just kind of refresh us on what those items are expected to be?
Kent M. Harvey:
Michael, this is Kent. In terms of the General Rate Case, Tony indicated based on the proposed decision we are -- assuming it is approved in the final form, we do intend to earn our authorized return overall for those lines of business. So I don't think there's anything significant in the General Rate Case portion of our business where there's any significant unrecovery. I mentioned there's a small piece of our capital true-up for 2013. It's probably a couple of hundred million dollars that isn't reflected in the proposed decision rate base for 2014, so that's capital from before this year. But we did have a significant true-up request in that case, and the large majority of it is reflected in the proposed decision. In terms of the Gas Transmission & Storage Case, there's really just a few items that going in we did not seek recovery. Of course, the most significant one is our rights-of-way program that Chris talked about earlier on the call, and we expect that to continue through 2017, so we have a few more years of that. There's only 2 other smaller items that we didn't seek recovery of, much smaller in scale. And we said together, they're roughly $50 million a year for the 3-year GT&S rate case period. One has to do with pressure testing on newer pipe, and the other one has to do with a portion of our corrosion work, which we believe was more remedial in nature. So those are really the items I think that address your question.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And the pressure -- is it the combination of the rights-of-way and the pressure testing and corrosion? Is all of that $50 million or just the pressure testing and the corrosion? And then, therefore, how much is the rights-of-way on top of that?
Kent M. Harvey:
It's the latter. In other words, roughly $50 million a year on average during the 3-year period is the pressure testing and the corrosion work. The rights-of-way work, as you know, is a 5-year program, and we believe that it will come in at or less than $500 million. So I would say really simplistically you could assume on average roughly $100 million a year.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And all of that is pretax?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's correct.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. Last question. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in overall demand trends in Northern California relative to what your expectations for weather-normalized demand trends? What's differing? How -- and what are your kind of views on what happens to electricity demand going forward over the next couple of years, like what you think the new normal for weather-normal demand is in Northern California?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
This is Tom Bottorff. The forecasts that we filed recently in regulatory proceedings suggest an increase of about 0.3% per year going forward for several years. That could, obviously, change in future years as we learn more about the deployment of DICHI [ph] and other technologies, but that's the weather-normalized forecast for foreseeable future.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Kent, when it relates to the pipeline-related expenses, how much insurance claim do you guys have in backlog that is prospectively available for recovery still?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, I'll give you a kind of all the kind of insurance numbers across the board so you can kind of understand it. In terms of our accrual, we've accrued $565 million. In terms of the actual cash outlay we've made, it's a little over $530 million, so the vast majority has actually been paid out in cash. We have incurred legal expenses related to third-party claims, which is also recoverable from insurance, which totals $88 million. And our recoveries to date on insurance are $354 million, I think, is the number. So there's still a couple hundred million dollars just in terms of getting up to our accrual, and then there's also $88 million in legal expenses incurred to date.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And from an effective perspective, you guys have been funding that shortfall with equity just to keep your capital structure balanced, correct?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's correct. The after tax amount with equity, yes.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And then, can you guys just maybe give a couple of thoughts -- I know it's early -- but on 111 (d) and how that could, a, integrate with AB 32; and then, b, assuming there's a bit of a penalty for people who've done a lot of work in advance, which you guys have, how does that affect maybe how you guys comment or make future planning decisions?
Anthony F. Earley:
Yes, let me start. I think we are in good shape under 111(d). We are still though trying to sort out how it will impact the California Cap and Trade regime. It's been working successfully. And that's an issue we've been talking to the California Air Resources Board, working with EPA. But by and large, our take on that is that PG&E is in very good shape given our current mix of generation. Not only do we have over half of our generation now is -- on nonemitting sources, when you include Diablo Canyon and our large hydro plants plus the renewables that qualify under the California program, that's going to go to 65% by 2020. And our own utility-owned generation are almost brand-new combined-cycle plants that have been built in the last 4 or 5 years, so they're pretty much state-of-the-art, so we feel like we're in good shape. But, obviously, we've got to get understandings of how all these things are going to integrate, and it's really too early to tell.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And is there anything update-wise on kind of the process for looking at some of these net metering changes and how you guys are coming along with recalibrating rate structures and demand charges?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes, this is Tom Bottorff. The commission did issue a proceeding this month that would launch a new rule-making to look at how the net metering tier should be revised, and they have a timeline for resolving that by the end of 2015, so -- and it would become effective in the middle of 2017. So that proceeding has been launched. They have opportunities to comment that are due in the middle of August, but there really isn't a decision anticipated until probably the latter part of 2015.
Operator:
The next question comes of the line of Kit Konolige with BGC.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Just -- most of my questions have been asked and answered. Just on the superseding indictment. Do you have any sense of how long that process is going to take to play out? And is there any possibility of a settlement? I guess I'm starting from the assumption that if you didn't settle before the indictment that settling after the indictment may not be in the cards. But I'd like any sense you can give us of where we stand, how long it'll take and what ultimately might occur.
Hyun Park:
So this is Hyun Park, General Counsel. The timeframe, I think, is it could take 1 or 2 or more years, but the schedule just has not been set yet. And in terms of settlement possibilities, I would say at this point there have been no settlement discussions. But, obviously, as Chris mentioned earlier, we're always open to receive [ph] offers.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Right. And just -- not that it probably matters a whole lot at this point, but why does the U.S. Attorney issue a superseding indictment like that? I mean, what -- was there something that came out in -- during year 4 that had an impact on what the indictments look like? What -- did they know anything later that they didn't know before? Or was it just a matter of they discovered some new law books? Or how does that work?
Hyun Park:
Yes, so I don't think it's completely uncommon for prosecutors to commend and occasionally file a superseding indictment. But as we see the superseding indictment, we don't think that any new facts have emerged. I mean it looks like it's more or less pretty much the same types of issues. There are 28 counts that are now in the indictment, and one relates to the obstruction charge that Tony described earlier. And there are 27 other counts, and they all relate to the same type of issues that were in the original indictment. There's a new code section that's referenced that relates to pressure testing records, but it looks like it's more of the same type of issues.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Okay, fine. I have one last unrelated question. And that is with the -- on the gas transmission retroactive decision by the commission is -- how much of a change -- is that a change in policy? Or was that something you expected? Does that apply to future filings in gas transmission or other areas?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes, this is Tom Bottorff. This practice is generally fairly common in these kinds of proceedings, but you do have to initiate a request with each proceeding, so it's not automatic, but we've gotten similar treatment in our General Rate Cases. We requested it in this TTF [ph] case and received it. So my expectation -- should it be our expectation that decisions will be delayed in the future, we will make a request to continue to ensure that they're retroactive to the date that we requested.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
And would you take this as an indication that the commission would be of a mind to go along with your request to -- for retroactive treatment?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
I just wanted to follow up on some of the questions regarding the superseding indictment. You mentioned that there had been no effort to enter into settlement discussions. I would like to know what are the consequences of a conviction? Are there consequences for your ability to recover under your insurance policies? Are there consequences for your ability to continue to provide services under some of your franchise agreements? Can you explore the possible negative consequences of a conviction?
Christopher P. Johns:
Sure. So I think with respect to the 2 specific questions that you mentioned with respect to insurance, our ability to serve our customers, I think the answer is we don't think a negative consequence in the criminal indictment will have a negative impact on those 2 issues. And I can't remember, what was the third question that you asked?
Hugh Wynne - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division:
Well, if there are no serious commercial implications of a conviction, what was the thinking that got you to engage in settlement discussions? It seems to me that this is a potentially very large penalty, which will create uncertainty for a period of years. It almost replicates the environment that we've been in for the last 2 years on the San Bruno CPUC penalty. Would there not be a strong incentive to try to put this behind you as well earlier rather than later?
Anthony F. Earley:
Yes, let me comment on it. This is Tony. Of course, we've only seen the superseding indictment here a day or so. If you'll recall the original indictment, the 12 counts amounted to $6 million, so we've just got this larger amount that we have to look at. We still believe, as Hyun said, the new indictment doesn't really allege any new facts. And in the past, he said we've looked at this, and we've admitted in other proceedings that the company may have been negligent, and in fact, that's how we settled all of the civil cases. But there's no evidence that we've seen that somebody willfully and knowingly violated the Pipeline Safety Act. So first of all, it's difficult to admit to something you just have no evidence that would support that. Second, there's a difference between how a conviction -- so a conviction in federal court has a different standard. And if we admitted that we have willfully and knowingly violated that Pipeline Safety Act, and that could have had consequences in the ongoing proceedings that we have. So given those facts, we've decided that we just can't see that we should admit to violations of those proceedings -- of those acts.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jim von Reisemann with CRT Capital.
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
I could use a bit of a math tutorial, if you don't mind. So do you have any general understanding directionally as to how the U.S. Attorney calculated this $281 million gain they allege you made from the San Bruno incident even though you said you haven't seen any sort of specifics? And the second question is in the event there is a guilty verdict, is there a potential for insurance recovery clawbacks? And what I'm getting at there in the second question is, how does the math actually work here, meaning is the investment community possibly double-counting, meaning that you might get credit for settlements already reached? Or for lack of a better word, could there actually be some sort of double jeopardy, meaning that if you've already paid out the third-party settlements for this $565 million, exclusive of these insurance recoveries, would you still be obligated to pay, say, 2 times the $565 million so the dollar amount is actually significantly higher than what the U.S. Attorney is saying?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, Jim, I'll start off here. We don't know how they were calculated because all of this is one line at the end of the indictment that these are the numbers for the gain and here's the number for the losses caused. So we'd be just speculating on how those numbers were calculated. Hyun, in terms of mechanically how this works?
Hyun Park:
So as I said in --at I think, the last earnings call, to get to the alternative fine, there are a number of hurdles that the prosecutors have to overcome. They have to prove the criminal act beyond a reasonable doubt, and then they have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that, that criminal conduct caused the loss or the gain; and then, they also have to prove the amount of the loss or the gain beyond a reasonable doubt. They also have to try to prove that the alternative fine would not unduly complicate or prolong the sentencing process. And we're just not aware of any situation where an alternative fine was based on the amounts paid to settle personal injury fees. So I think it just remains to be seen how the prosecutors are going to try to demonstrate the link of the $281 million in gain or the $565 million that they have referenced in their indictment. And the $281 million, I just don't know where they came up with that.
Operator:
The next question comes the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Just want to know if you could provide sort of a range in the amount of deferred taxes you think you'd book in 2015 and maybe '16. I know previously you said you don't expect to be a cash taxpayer in '14 and I guess for most of, I believe, '15. And I guess you go back to paying taxes in '16. I wonder if you could give a range? And also, lastly, do your rate base assumptions include deferred taxes and bonus depreciation in there?
Dinyar B. Mistry:
This is Dinyar Mistry, the Controller. Previously, we had said that we are in an NOL position, so we don't expect to pay cash taxes in 2014, possibly going into 2015. We have looked at our range of deferred taxes, and they're embedded in the rate base forecasts that are in the slides that we've given you. So all of those numbers are already implied in the rate base and in the equity numbers that we have provided for 2014.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza from Citigroup.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
A little bit more of an obscure question. Most of my other questions were answered. When you -- there's some chatter and headlines that we've seen where Mexico may join CAISO's imbalanced market. Kind of wondering if whether you've done any work on what the potential impact could be for reliability as well as any opportunities that you can come about from additional transmission build?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, I think that's a new one for -- we've not heard that Mexico's going to join that imbalanced market. So I can't answer the question about impacts.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Okay. I'll follow up offline on that. And just one last question. Is there still any chatter or any kind of a push to increase the RPS standard above what it is currently by 2020?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, there have been questions of so what do we do next after we get to 2020. It also gets wrapped up in what happens with the 111 (d) things that EPA is working on. And here in California, I mean, we've had some discussions among the utilities and some of the State folks around clean energy standards rather than renewable energy standards, but it's all still in a formative status of discussion right now.
Shahriar Pourreza - Citigroup Inc, Research Division:
Okay, got it. And currently, as far as the net metering cap, can you just remind us what the cap is and whether you can potentially surpass that at a new point?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes. They give the cap as currently at 5%. We don't anticipate it being surpassed before 2016. There's some uncertainty about when it could occur, but our guess is 2016 to 2017.
Operator:
The next question comes of the line of Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
My questions have been asked and answered.
Sara A. Cherry:
Is there one more question?
Operator:
Yes, the next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium.
Ashar Khan:
Yes, I just -- Kent, just a small question. What would be the share count at the end of the year based on your current share issuance program?
Kent M. Harvey:
That one's going to depend on the price and stuff like that. So I'll just tell you the average shares in Q2 were 469 million.
Ashar Khan:
The average. And what were they at the end of the year, end of the quarter? Do you have that?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, I only have the Q1 average, which was 460 million in Q1. That was the average share count. I don't have the end of the quarter.
Sara A. Cherry:
Okay, great. Thanks, Josh. Thanks, everyone. I think we'll wrap it up. Thanks for participating today, and please don't hesitate to call us if you have any follow-up questions. And have a wonderful day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for attending the PG&E Corporation Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This now concludes the conference. Please enjoy the rest of your day.
Executives:
Sara A. Cherry - Vice President of Investor Relations Anthony F. Earley - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman of Executive Committee Christopher P. Johns - Former President and Director Kent M. Harvey - Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President Thomas E. Bottorff - Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Hyun Park - Senior Vice President and General Counsel
Analysts:
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Michael Weinstein James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good morning, and welcome to the PG&E First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to introduce your hostess, Sara Cherry with PG&E. Thank you, and enjoy your conference. You may proceed, Ms. Cherry.
Sara A. Cherry:
Thank you, Lynn. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before you hear from Tony Earley, Chris Johns and Kent Harvey, I'll remind you that our discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results based on assumptions, forecasts, expectations and information currently available to management. Some of the important factors that could affect the company's actual financial results are described on the second page of today's slide deck. We also encourage you to review the Form 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC later today, and the discussion of risk factors that appears there and in the 2013 annual report. And with that, I'll hand it over to Tony.
Anthony F. Earley:
Thanks, Sara, and good morning, everyone. I'll start off our remarks today and then turn it over to Chris and Kent. I'm going to cover our focus as a company. Chris will discuss the current status of our operations and regulatory and legal matters; and then Kent will conclude with the financial results of the quarter. Let me start with Slide 3. Since my first day at PG&E, it's been clear to me that everyone here is united around our shared mission to operate a leading utility that delivers safe, reliable and affordable electric and gas service to our customers. Our 3 objectives continue to be resolving the gas issues, positioning the company for long-term success and partnering effectively with others to move the company forward. So on the gas regulatory front, we continue to await action by the California Public Utilities Commission law judges in the pending gas investigations. But we have not waited to make significant improvements to the safety and reliability of our gas pipeline system. As I've said before, it's vital that the Commission's final decision recognize that we compensated the victims through the civil proceeding and that we made substantial improvements in safety at a very significant cost to our shareholders. Next resolving the gas rate case. Well, the General Rate Case will allow us to continue the important work we've already begun. We'll be able to upgrade our gas and electric systems and generating assets and continue to grow. As you know, we don't control the schedule, but we expect to receive a proposed decision soon, and we'll look to the Commission to reach a reasonable and timely final decision. In our gas transmission business, we filed a Gas Transmission and Storage Rate Case for 2015. And finally, the U.S. Attorney's indictment of the company under the federal Pipeline Safety Act was a development that we shared in detail earlier this quarter. We just do not believe any employees intentionally violated the federal pipeline safety regulations. And we believe that even where the mistakes were made, employees were acting in good faith. Turning to operations, in 2014 we continued to see strong progress. As a company, we've been focusing on steps to ensure the safety of our customers. And one area where I'm pleased to see great progress in the first quarter was in the reduction of third-party damages to our gas and electric lines as a result of unsafe digging practices. With respect to future success, our integrated planning process is now in its third cycle with plans for driving continuous improvement throughout the organization. As we look forward, we continue to focus on superior execution of the work outlined in our rate cases and earning our authorized return this year with the exception of the gas pipeline business. And next year, our objective is still to earn our authorized return for the entire enterprise. So with that, let me turn it over to Chris.
Christopher P. Johns:
Thanks, Tony, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin my remarks with an update on our operations and then touch on regulatory developments. Starting with gas operations, since 2011 we've successfully strength-tested over 675 miles of pipe, replaced almost 130 miles, retrofitted more than 400 miles to allow for inline inspection and installed nearly 150 automated shutoff valves. This work on the pipeline is the most extensive in the United States, and demonstrates the company's commitment to enhance the safety and integrity of our gas system. And this work has not been limited to the gas transmission business. We've taken lessons learned and applied them throughout our operations. We're finding and fixing issues in all areas of our operations, including our gas distribution system. In our gas distribution system during the first quarter, one of our crews working on a distribution line upgrade accidentally caused a leak, which caused an explosion at a vacant house in Carmel. Fortunately, nobody was injured. We take this event very seriously. The immediate steps we took included modifying our work procedures and hiring an independent third-party engineering firm to conduct a root cause analysis. The expert firm released their report last week and concluded that the explosion could have been prevented by proper verification of the distribution line status and configuration prior to working on the line. The report recommends a series of safety actions, which we fully embrace and have already implemented or will begin implementing shortly. We know the lessons learned from Carmel will make our operations even stronger and safer going forward. In the electric business this quarter, we've now fully integrated about 500 new devices on our lines to isolate outages and reroute power automatically in the event of a failure. We've already seen positive results from this program. Just since January 1, we've avoided nearly 10 million customer outage minutes or almost 100,000 sustained customers’ outages. This is just one example of the work we're doing on our electric system to improve the reliability experienced by our customers. In our energy supply organization, we've successfully completed another refueling outage at Diablo Canyon. As is true every 5 years, 2014 includes scheduled refueling outages on both units at the plant, with the second outage coming in the fall. Turning to regulatory matters, I'll spend a few minutes on our 3 pending rate proceedings. The first is our 2014 General Rate Case, where we are awaiting a proposed decision. This rate case integrates a strong risk prioritization process and a focus on safety. The Commission's consultants reviewed our request from a safety perspective. The consultants' reports provided some constructive comments, but also recognized the overall improvements we're making, including our integrated planning process that Tony talked about and risk management assessments as well as safety improvements. We look to the administrative law judge overseeing the GRC, and ultimately to the Commission, to acknowledge the importance of our plans to improve the safety and reliability of our distribution systems and generation assets. As a reminder, once the CPUC issues a final decision, the revenue requirement change will be retroactive to the first of the year. The second case was the Gas Transmission Rate Case, which we filed in December. During the quarter, we filed a motion with the Commission to request that the revenue requirement for the Gas Transmission Rate Case be retroactive to January 1, 2015, even though the final decision will come later. We're pleased to have partnered with TURN and ORA to gain support for this important motion in the proceedings. We expect a ruling on the motion in the next 2 months. Finally, with TO15, our electric transmission rate case, we continue to engage with the other parties for settlement discussions in April, and we'll continue those conversations later this month. With that, I'll turn it over to Kent.
Kent M. Harvey:
Thanks, Chris, and good morning. I'll now walk through the results for the first quarter, which are summarized on Slide 5. You can see that earnings from operations were $0.54. GAAP results, reflecting the item impacting comparability for natural gas matters, were $0.49. The table at the bottom has the natural gas item in pre-tax dollars. And you can see the pipeline-related expenses came in at $40 million for the quarter. Keep in mind that work on the pipeline is seasonal. We plan less work during the winter months, and we do expect it to pick up significantly in future quarters. Slide 6 shows the quarter-over-quarter comparison for earnings from operations and the main drivers behind the $0.09 difference. About $0.04 of it is due to the fact that without a decision in our pending General Rate Case, we're not recovering the increase in depreciation and interest expense resulting from capital growth over the past year. After the Commission approves the General Rate Case, which will be retroactive to January 1, we'd expect to recover these costs. And for that matter, turn a return on a larger authorized rate base. So this one's essentially a timing issue. Another $0.03 is due to the increase in shares outstanding, and the rest is due to a number of smaller items, some of which are also just timing. So that's the summary of our first quarter results. As you know, we are not providing -- we've not provided guidance for earnings from operations for the year, given the pending General Rate Case and the gas investigations at the PUC. However, on our last call, we did provide some key inputs to assist you in developing estimates, such as ranges for CapEx, rate base, unrecovered gas cost and equity issuance. We've not made any revisions to that information since last quarter, and it's included in today's presentation. On Slide 7, you'll see the estimated range for our item impacting comparability for natural gas matters remains at $350 million to $450 million pre-tax. At the bottom is the reminder that these figures exclude future insurance recoveries, which obviously would net against these costs and exclude any additional fines or penalties resulting from the gas investigations that haven't already been accrued. Finally, during Q1, we issued a little over $300 million of common stock, and we continue to target between $800 million and $1 billion of issuance for the year. Keep in mind that, that range excludes any additional fines or penalties resulting from the gas investigations, which will be incremental to the range we've provided. And with that, we'll go ahead and open it up for your questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Just -- you mentioned that the Carmel independent report was out last week, has there been any reaction to that from other constituent policymakers?
Christopher P. Johns:
Steve, this is Chris. We have not heard anything, and we haven't seen any reactions to it. I mean, we've been aggressive about sharing it with the different policymakers and constituencies. So there hasn't been any reactions publicly yet.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And then just the $300 million of stock you've issued so far to date, how much of that -- do you know how much of that came out of your dribble versus your comp programs?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes, I've got the number here, Steve. The majority was out of the dribble. Our internal programs, I think, were in the $80 million range and the remainder was from the dribble.
Steven I. Fleishman - Wolfe Research, LLC:
Okay. And the obvious question, just are you getting any indication from anyone on timing of when you'll get an ALJ on the San Bruno issues?
Anthony F. Earley:
This is Tony. No, we still believe that as we approach midyear, we should get it. But obviously we don't control that, and we're just waiting. But we continue to focus on moving ahead and getting work done. Because our belief is the more work we get done, the more we close out all of our gas issues, the better off we are.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
I'm just thinking about timing for this year with the GRC waiting on the PD and then formalization. Can you remind me what the time distance or what would be the normal process once you have the PD to once you have a final order in the GRC, just so we can try and figure out if how much time we have left in this quarter before all the catch-up money goes into the third quarter -- or whenever that shows up?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes. This is Tom Bottorff. I'm responsible for regulatory affairs. So what we expect once the PD is issued, parties will have 20 days to comment, then there will be another 5 days for reply. So the earliest you can get a final decision is 30 days, roughly, after the PD was issued. But sometimes decisions can change or other issues can come up that cause delay. But the earliest could be 30 days and it could be another month or 2 after that.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. So basically, if we don't have something in the next couple of weeks, then we should assume that it's going to be at best case third quarter pickup from an earnings perspective?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes, I think that's reasonable.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And then on the criminal case, as it stands out right now, there's been more talk of maybe going after some of these past profits rather than the per violation costs. Can you remind us again where your legal position is on that point? And then, is this something do you think there's an opportunity to settle on or resolve or does this have to go through the court process?
Anthony F. Earley:
Let me start off and then, Hyun Park, our General Counsel, could go into a little bit more detail. But there has been considerable confusion in the press about these alternative fines following the arraignment last month. So I just want to make it clear that the indictment documents do not include any request for alternative fines. And talking to our lawyers, we strongly believe that the law says that in order to seek alternative fines at this point, the prosecutors would need to go back to the grand jury, file a new superseding indictment that specifically seeks alternative fine. Whether they do that or not, we don't know whether they're going to do that, but none of it changes the underlying reality that fundamentally, it's our belief that the criminal charges against the company just are not merited. Hyun, I don't know whether you want to say any more about the -- procedurally what...
Hyun Park:
Yes, Dan, this is Hyun Park, General Counsel. And I guess the point that I want to make is that there are actually pretty high hurdles to seek an alternative fine. So what the government would have to do is, in addition to filing a brand new superseding indictment, we believe that they would have to prove to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt that the criminal conduct occurred and that the specific conduct actually caused the loss or the gain that they're going to base the alternative fine on, and that they have to also prove beyond a reasonable doubt the amount of the loss or gain. They also have to convince the court that the alternative fine would not unduly complicate or prolong the sentencing process. So they have to jump through lot of hoops for that.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Do you see, given that -- given otherwise the comparable -- these smaller dollars relative to anything else you guys have gone through, is there an opportunity here to settle this and just get it off the plate?
Anthony F. Earley:
Well, we are always open to settlement on this, and we'll continue to look for opportunities going forward. I think procedurally right now that the time isn't right for that. But as we get through the initial phase of this proceeding, we will look for those opportunities. Because you're right, the dollar figures are not big issues here.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And I guess just one last question, Tony. You focused a lot on trying to improve the operating performance from third and fourth quartile performance up to higher levels. Can you just give us an update where some of those bigger measures stand, and maybe when we should expect to see good comparability for what you guys did last year relative to the industry?
Anthony F. Earley:
Sure, I'll start off and Chris can add some things. You're exactly right. I think 2.5 years ago when I got here, I characterized that we were solidly in the third and fourth quartile for a lot of our key metrics. And I'm really pleased to say that we're pushing up. We moved some of the metrics into first quartile. Even some of the more challenging ones are starting to push up to the median, which will push them from third to the second quartile. Chris mentioned electric reliability. We've had a string of -- we're looking at probably the fifth year in a row this year where we will have record performance on the electric side of the business. Nick Stavropoulos and his team have really transformed the gas business from a solid fourth quartile company to one that's got some really positive things going on. And maybe Chris or Nick can comment on some of the progress we've made.
Christopher P. Johns:
Yes, Tony. This is Chris. And what I would say is, is that we've focused on a lot of the different areas. We've talked about reliability on the electric side having five-year -- 4 years now and getting into a fifth year of setting new records for us that will get us into the second quartile nationally. In addition on the electric side, we've been able to offset inflation in that organization last year. And we've embedded that into the rate case because of the continuous improvement programs. I think that's really the key. All of the organizations have embedded continuous improvement programs and initiatives within the organization that is helping them drive out cost and be able to do things like start to offset inflation and some of the other pressures that we've had.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Michael Weinstein:
I just wanted to confirm the -- when you're saying that there'll be some recovery once the retroactive nature of the GRC falls in, are you talking about the $0.04 there in the waterfall chart?
Kent M. Harvey:
Yes, this is Kent. So what's happened is in the past year, since the first quarter of last year, obviously we've had another year of CapEx and a rate base as [ph] well [ph]. So we have been incurring, in the first quarter, a higher level of depreciation and our interest expense is higher. Once we get the General Rate Case, we expect that it will provide revenues that will cover those costs, as well as the fact that we will have an authorized rate base that will be higher, and we'll be able to earn a return on a higher authorized rate base. So you should see both the $0.04 recovery in a future period as well as just the return component on a higher level of rate base for 2014 as compared to 2013 in the last rate case.
Michael Weinstein:
So just to be clear, you're not delaying any capital spending right now? The capital spending is going on, rate base is increasing, it's just not been recognized as such?
Kent M. Harvey:
That's correct. And the key thing is that the PUC's decision, we do expect will be retroactive to January 1. So we will get the revenues for -- that we would have otherwise gotten during the first quarter, they will just be booked in a later period. And there's nothing unusual about that retroactivity. That's kind of the standard way.
Michael Weinstein:
Right, right. I just wanted to make sure there wasn't a delay in the spending that you'd have to make up, I guess, later on in the year. But it sounds like...
Kent M. Harvey:
No, we've mainly been staying on our plan and our plan on the expense side, for the time being, was to stay relatively flat to last year with the expenses, pending the GRC outcomes. And that's the path we've been on.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jim von Riesemann with CRT Capital.
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
Could you just walk us through the -- I'm not an attorney, so can you just walk us through the process with the indictment and what goes on from here? And maybe the expected timing for this whole process?
Hyun Park:
Yes, so this is Hyun Park. So right now, there is a status conference that's scheduled for June 2. And I think the judge will at that point decide on some procedural schedules. There will be discovery. There will be motion. There will be additional status conferences. I think it's hard to predict how long the actual trial will take. It's probably 1 year, 2 years, or it could take longer than that. There was a federal indictment in August of 2009 against a utility, and from indictment to the actual jury verdict, it took approximately 22 months. That's an example that's out there.
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
Okay. Where is this going to be tried? Is this going to be tried in San Francisco? And if so, do you think you can get a fair trial given all the media coverage of this?
Hyun Park:
So we believe the trial will be here in San Francisco, and it's before a U.S. federal district court judge. And we believe that we can get a fair trial. And we'll just have to work through this here in San Francisco.
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
And then the last question is, aside from the penalties that might be considered, is there anything operationally that a conviction could have on the day-to-day operations of the company?
Hyun Park:
Yes. So some of the remedies that are available to a judge in sentencing in the event of a conviction is that the judge could order a monitor -- a court-appointed monitor, and there are other reporting type of remedies that the judge could also order as well.
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
Nothing would impact your Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity, is that correct? Or shouldn't impact, I should say?
Hyun Park:
I assume you're talking about our ability to operate our business?
James D. von Riesemann - CRT Capital Group LLC, Research Division:
Correct.
Hyun Park:
Yes -- no.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Most of my questions have been answered. Just one question. When you think of the delays, we thought we'd resolved right now, we're waiting for the ALJ in the San Bruno proceeding, yet the company is still spending capital. Do you think the delay helps you when it comes to their proposed decision or final decision that maybe cooler heads are prevailing and the parties are seeing all the investment the company's making? Or you think this delay's going to have no impact at all on the final decision?
Anthony F. Earley:
I hesitate to speculate on the impact, but our view is that the more we improve the system, the better off we are. And I think the commissioners recognize that we have transformed the system and have really taken it to a whole new level. And we're doing some things in the gas business that will be industry-leading -- are industry-leading. And we think that will be helpful when they're considering the appropriate penalty. Because not only have we compensated the victims in the civil cases, but we've remedied a lot of the issues that were raised in the NTSB report and elsewhere.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Kit Konolige with BGC.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Just -- most of my questions have been answered, one quick question. I think, Tony, you mentioned that you have support from TURN and ORA on the retroactivity concept for the gas transmission case?
Anthony F. Earley:
Yes, that's correct, Kit.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
And -- so when should we see a final indication from the Commission that, that would be retroactive? And can you just give us a view of what the timing is for the full case?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Yes, this is Tom Bottorff. With respect to that motion that seeks approval of the settlement between ORA and TURN and our company, that's expected within 1 month or 2. So we should see maybe [indiscernible] within the next month or the month after. The entire case, we do have a schedule that's been issued by the judge and the proceeding, and it calls for a final decision in the first quarter 2015.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
It's actually Rajeev Lalwani. First question was just on the -- as to whether or not there's any interaction between the criminal case and the state-level investigation as it relates to penalties, fines so that there's no kind of double counting? I'll ask maybe that and then a follow-up.
Anthony F. Earley:
We don't see any interrelationship. They are independent proceedings.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. And do you know if there's a dialogue between the 2 or anything like that?
Anthony F. Earley:
That we don't know. I mean, I'm sure there have been discussions. We do know that in the course of the U.S. Attorney's investigation, they were looking at a lot of materials that were developed in the PUC case. And I would assume that there have been some discussions, but we really see these as separate proceedings.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay. Understood. Second question was just more on investment potential longer term. I know you've got a 7% to 11% annual rate base forecast, but any thoughts on whether or not you think that can continue longer term? And then, any thoughts on whether or not earnings could follow that closely?
Kent M. Harvey:
Rajeev, this is Kent. I think it's fair to assume that the infrastructure investment we're making at a pretty good clip is not going to be done during the next -- this upcoming general rate case period. So we continue to see a lot of opportunity to invest in our existing system, to upgrade it both for reliability and safety.
Anthony F. Earley:
And this is Tony. Let me add, I think, from the general standpoint, we're getting a good consensus of thought leaders around California that a, we need to invest in infrastructure -- not only to remedy some of issues we had in gas, but also to take advantage of new technologies. Chris talked about the fabulous performance improvement in our electric business. And a lot of it's been driven by coupling the technology of smart meters with automated switching devices, and we've only just scratched the surface on using the data that we're developing out of those smart meters. And I think there's a lot of excitement of thought leaders around making sure we continue those investments here in California.
Rajeev Lalwani - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
And then, Kent, just to follow up on that. As it relates to just earnings growth, do you generally think your rate base growth and earnings growth would be close, or do you expect a big delta just from equity needs, et cetera?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, we haven't provided equity guidance longer term, but I think we have given you guys the tools to come pretty close to estimating it. And we do anticipate that we'll continue to have equity needs. So that will impact what the EPS profile looks like going forward.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
I wonder if you could characterize the timing and why it's taking so long, I guess, at the FERC, on the transmission case. And how that might back up your next few transmission cases or affect investment?
Thomas E. Bottorff:
Hi. This is Tom Bottorff. If you're addressing TO15, our FERC transmission rate case, it's really not off schedule to any significant degree at this point. Settlement discussions are all ongoing. We would expect to file TO16 in July, so we'll see. But I think there's still a good chance TO15 could be settled prior to that.
Christopher P. Johns:
This is Chris. I mean I think that's generally in line with our last several years' worth of TO filings.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And then, would you expect any impact or any further delays based on FERC -- potential FERC rulings in the Northeast case or the MISO case in terms of ROEs?
Christopher P. Johns:
No, we would not.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
I just want to make sure I kind of catch up a little bit on some of the rate case dockets, the General Rate Case and GT&S one. Can you talk to us a little bit about what won't be recoverable as a result of both cases? Meaning, what will still be kind of a potential drag on traditional rate base math for you even after you get that GT&S order?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, this is Kent. And let me just take the gas transmission stuff. I think, in that case, we have not requested the rights-of-way work, which you know is a 5-year program, 1 year of which is behind us. But we're in the second year of that program. And our estimates for the full 5 years was roughly $500 million. So those dollars would not be recovered, and those will continue in '14, '15, '16 and '17. And then, I would say the other ones, there are 2 smaller pieces that we decided not to seek recovery of in the gas transmission case. And each one of them is roughly $25 million per year for the 3-year rate cycles. One has to do with certain remedial corrosion work, and the other one has to do with hydrostatic testing of post-61 pipe. And those are really the items that we've not sought recovery in the gas transmission case.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And can you help us understand when we think about the combination of your GRC as well as the GT&S cases, what the bridge between the O&M you're requesting and as a result of both cases versus kind of historical levels?
Kent M. Harvey:
Well, I guess, the way I would say [ph] it from an earnings perspective, maybe one way you want to think about it is, prior to this year we've been consciously spending about $250 million in excess of what we were recovering in those cases. That's putting aside the gas item impacting comparability. But in our normal operations, about $250 million. And those -- that's essentially the gap from an earnings perspective that we're trying to address in the combination of the 2 rate cases. And obviously the General Rate Case is the bigger piece of that.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
And finally, can you rehash for us just what's the level of capital spending under PSEP that we won't be recovering in rates going forward?
Kent M. Harvey:
I think that's about $500 million that doesn't get recovered.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Of future capital spend or spend that's already occurred?
Kent M. Harvey:
Some of that is spend that's already occurred, but we've accrued the total amount. And the rest of it will occur this year, because the PSEP program reaches its conclusion at the end of 2014.
Operator:
There are currently no additional questions waiting from the phone lines.
Sara A. Cherry:
Thanks, Lynn. I think we'll wrap it up. Thanks very much, everyone, for participating, and don't hesitate to call us if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for attending the PG&E First Quarter 2014 Earnings Call. This now concludes the conference, enjoy the rest of your day.