• Regulated Electric
  • Utilities
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated logo
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
PEG · US · NYSE
79.36
USD
+0.39
(0.49%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Zeeshan Sheikh Senior Vice President and Chief Information & Digital Officer --
Mr. Daniel J. Cregg Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 1.49M
Ms. Tamara Louise Linde Esq. Executive Vice President & General Counsel 1.36M
Ms. Sheila J. Rostiac Senior Vice President of Human Resources, Chief Human Resources & Chief Diversity Officer - Services --
Ms. Kim C. Hanemann President & Chief Operating Officer of Public Service Electric & Gas 1.32M
Mr. Ralph A. LaRossa Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer 3.17M
Ms. Carlotta N. Chan Vice President of Investor Relations --
Ms. Karen Cleeve Vice President of Corporate Communications --
Ms. Courtney McCormick Senior Vice President of Audit, Enterprise Risk & Compliance --
Mr. Richard T. Thigpen Senior Vice President of Corporate Citizenship --
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-06-03 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1373 74.9883
2024-05-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1374 69.5534
2024-05-01 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 TANJI KENNETH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 SURMA JOHN P director A - A-Award Common Stock 2579 69.81
2024-05-01 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Stephenson Scott G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Smith Valerie Ann director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Perez Ricardo G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Gentoso Jamie M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2579 0
2024-05-01 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Common Stock 2579 69.81
2024-04-22 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 65.78
2024-04-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1374 66.3694
2024-03-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 64.2
2024-03-14 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - S-Sale Common Stock 4800 64.18
2024-03-01 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship A - A-Award Common Stock 2520.971 62
2024-03-01 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - F-InKind Common Stock 844 62
2024-03-01 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO A - A-Award Common Stock 3262.826 62
2024-03-01 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1118 62
2024-03-01 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear A - A-Award Common Stock 2520.971 62
2024-03-01 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear D - F-InKind Common Stock 694 62
2024-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 7711.174 62
2024-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 3945 62
2024-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 14236.268 62
2024-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7282 62
2024-03-04 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1374 63.0003
2024-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 1891.077 62
2024-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 746 62
2024-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 3855.864 62
2024-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1973 62
2024-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 10380.405 62
2024-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 5310 62
2024-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1398.195 62
2024-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 442 62
2024-02-29 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - S-Sale Common Stock 5585.606 62.99
2024-02-29 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 2748 63.0158
2024-02-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.52
2024-02-13 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO A - A-Award Common Stock 4100 58.55
2024-02-13 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship A - A-Award Common Stock 3075 58.55
2024-02-13 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear A - A-Award Common Stock 6149 58.55
2024-02-13 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 9223 58.55
2024-02-13 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 12298 58.55
2024-02-13 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 43553 58.55
2024-02-13 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 9223 58.55
2024-02-13 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 3416 58.55
2024-01-22 Perez Ricardo G - 0 0
2024-01-22 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.21
2024-01-02 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - F-InKind Common Stock 689 60.9
2024-01-02 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1095 60.9
2024-01-02 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear D - F-InKind Common Stock 613 60.9
2024-01-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2168 60.9
2024-01-02 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4208 60.9
2024-01-02 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 514 60.9
2024-01-02 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1084 60.9
2024-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2988 60.9
2024-01-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 597 60.9
2023-12-19 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear D - Common Stock 0 0
2023-12-19 McFeaters Charles V President & CNO - PSEG Nuclear I - Common Stock 0 0
2023-12-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.8
2023-12-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1374 63.0125
2023-11-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 64.24
2023-11-02 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4122 63.0048
2023-10-23 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.44
2023-10-02 TANJI KENNETH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1920 0
2023-09-20 TANJI KENNETH - 0 0
2023-09-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.63
2023-08-21 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.76
2023-08-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 8074 64.45
2023-07-03 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4168 63.0069
2023-05-01 ZOLLAR ALFRED W director A - A-Award Common Stock 2851 63.14
2023-05-01 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 SURMA JOHN P director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 Stephenson Scott G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 Smith Valerie Ann director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 Gentoso Jamie M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2851 0
2023-05-01 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Common Stock 2851 63.14
2023-04-17 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 31398 63.7
2023-03-13 Carr Eric President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 7105 57.635
2023-03-01 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship A - A-Award Common Stock 2560.231 59.54
2023-03-01 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - F-InKind Common Stock 850 59.54
2023-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 7831.371 59.54
2023-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 4006 59.54
2023-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 3915.908 59.54
2023-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1529 59.54
2023-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 14457.745 59.54
2023-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7396 59.54
2023-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 9759.1 59.54
2023-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4992 59.54
2023-03-01 Carr Eric President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 4819.545 59.54
2023-03-01 Carr Eric President & COO - PSEG Power D - F-InKind Common Stock 2156 59.54
2023-03-01 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO A - A-Award Common Stock 3012.271 59.54
2023-03-01 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1032 59.54
2023-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1291.228 59.54
2023-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 405 59.54
2023-02-14 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 6868 61.16
2023-02-14 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2126 61.16
2023-02-14 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO A - A-Award Common Stock 3434 61.16
2023-02-14 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 7358 61.16
2023-02-14 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 39242 61.16
2023-02-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 9566 61.16
2023-02-14 Carr Eric President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Phantom Stock 6132 0
2023-02-14 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship A - A-Award Common Stock 1349 61.16
2023-02-14 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1349 0
2022-12-31 Thigpen Richard T officer - 0 0
2023-01-03 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1060 61.283
2023-01-03 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2697 61.283
2023-01-03 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 531 61.283
2023-01-03 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - F-InKind Common Stock 677 61.283
2023-01-03 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO D - F-InKind Common Stock 980 61.283
2022-12-15 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 412.391 0
2023-01-03 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2126 61.283
2023-01-03 Carr Eric President & COO - PSEG Power D - F-InKind Common Stock 1800 61.283
2023-01-03 LaRossa Ralph A Chair, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4131 61.283
2022-12-20 Rostiac Sheila J SVP HR & CHRO & CDO D - Common Stock 0 0
2025-01-01 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - Phantom Stock 1075.268 0
2022-12-20 Thigpen Richard T SVP Corporate Citizenship D - Common Stock 0 0
2022-12-05 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.45
2022-11-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 57.14
2022-10-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.19
2022-09-07 LaRossa Ralph A President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1054 65.7527
2022-09-06 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 64.31
2022-09-01 LaRossa Ralph A President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 22444 64.83
2022-09-01 IZZO RALPH Executive Chair of the Board D - S-Sale Common Stock 9889 64.518
2022-08-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 65.51
2022-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 65.5816
2022-07-29 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1054 65.7543
2022-07-05 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 64.45
2022-07-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 64.1468
2022-06-06 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 68.84
2022-06-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 68.1037
2022-05-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 68.91
2022-05-02 Stephenson Scott G A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 Stephenson Scott G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 0
2022-05-02 TOMASKY SUSAN A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 0
2022-05-02 SURMA JOHN P A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 SUGG LAURA A A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 0
2022-05-02 Smith Valerie Ann A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 Gentoso Jamie M A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 Ostrowsky Barry H A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 ZOLLAR ALFRED W A - A-Award Common Stock 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 LILLEY DAVID A - A-Award Common Stock 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 Deese Willie A A - A-Award Common Stock 2615 68.85
2022-05-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 68.9544
2022-04-19 Gentoso Jamie M - 0 0
2022-04-19 Smith Valerie Ann - 0 0
2022-04-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 70.4395
2022-04-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 70.65
2022-03-24 JACKSON SHIRLEY A A - A-Award Phantom Stock 795.825 67.54
2022-03-24 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 795.825 0
2022-03-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 66.02
2022-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 12976.046 64.71
2022-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 6638 64.71
2022-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 73814.222 64.71
2022-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 64.4616
2022-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 37756 64.71
2022-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 3244.454 64.71
2022-03-01 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1142 64.71
2022-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 13974.818 64.71
2022-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 64.4653
2022-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7149 64.71
2022-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 13974.818 64.71
2022-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 7149 64.71
2022-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2139.337 64.71
2022-03-01 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 728 64.71
2022-02-15 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 42372 64.43
2022-02-15 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 6519 64.43
2022-02-15 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 11641 64.43
2022-02-15 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 6054 64.43
2022-02-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 8614 64.43
2022-02-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1863 64.43
2022-02-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 66.56
2022-02-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 66.1671
2022-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 66.1515
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3326.29 41.41
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2024 65.25
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3953.9 39.435
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2149 65.25
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 3326.29 41.41
2022-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 3953.9 39.435
2022-01-03 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 557 66.54
2022-01-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 66.13
2022-01-03 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2252 66.54
2022-01-03 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 697 66.54
2022-01-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 65.6939
2022-01-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 18651 66.54
2022-01-03 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2436 66.54
2022-01-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2446 66.54
2022-01-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 65.9679
2021-12-16 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 819.235 0
2021-12-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 63.1391
2021-12-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 63.1942
2021-11-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 62.65
2021-11-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 64.1686
2021-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 64.1753
2021-10-18 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 61.56
2021-10-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 9883 60.6644
2021-10-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 60.8298
2021-09-23 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 885.648 0
2021-09-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 62.95
2021-09-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 64.5964
2021-08-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 64.71
2021-08-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 62.853
2021-07-19 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 61.34
2021-06-30 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-06-30 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-06-30 Hanemann Kim C President and COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 1633 59.74
2021-07-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 58.8275
2021-06-24 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 905.339 0
2021-06-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 61.06
2021-06-14 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 29500 61.7113
2021-06-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 62.0538
2021-05-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 62.64
2021-05-03 ZOLLAR ALFRED W director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 SURMA JOHN P director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 Stephenson Scott G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 LILLEY DAVID director A - A-Award Common Stock 2121 63.65
2021-05-03 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2121 0
2021-05-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 63.8699
2021-04-19 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 4890 63.2955
2021-04-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 397 62.52
2021-03-25 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 904.578 0
2021-03-12 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 461 0
2021-03-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 397 57.85
2021-03-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 23769.519 54.69
2021-03-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 12159 54.69
2021-03-02 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 16836.418 54.69
2021-03-02 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 7905 54.69
2021-03-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 23769.519 54.69
2021-03-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 12159 54.69
2021-03-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 8276.843 54.69
2021-03-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2780 54.69
2021-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 27730.847 54.69
2021-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14185 54.69
2021-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 42445.238 54.69
2021-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21711 54.69
2021-03-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 138354.418 54.69
2021-03-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 70769 54.69
2021-03-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2971.773 54.69
2021-03-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 932 54.69
2021-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1924 54.27
2021-02-16 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 7041 57.95
2021-02-16 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 12425 57.95
2021-02-16 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 6730 57.95
2021-02-16 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 47110 57.95
2021-02-16 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 9060 57.95
2021-02-16 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1899 57.95
2021-02-16 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 403 57.989
2021-02-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 56.9511
2021-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2144.1 34.9
2021-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 825 59.38
2021-01-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 2144.1 34.9
2021-01-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 403 57.71
2021-01-04 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1017 57.77
2021-01-04 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2355 57.77
2021-01-04 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 19929 57.77
2021-01-04 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 56.4366
2021-01-04 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 4615 57.77
2021-01-04 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14209 57.77
2021-01-04 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1661 57.77
2021-01-04 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 440 57.77
2021-01-04 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2355 57.77
2020-12-30 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 56.96
2020-12-18 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 945.97 0
2020-12-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 58.4165
2020-11-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 58.4508
2020-10-01 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 54.96
2020-09-28 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 55
2020-09-25 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 992.98 0
2020-09-09 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 54.0225
2020-08-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 55.04
2020-08-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 55.053
2020-07-17 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1919 54.0132
2020-07-17 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 400 55
2020-06-24 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1116.071 0
2020-06-08 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 600 55
2020-06-05 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 5757 54.0144
2020-03-26 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 1221.31 0
2020-05-01 ZOLLAR ALFRED W director A - A-Award Common Stock 2733 49.41
2020-05-01 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 SURMA JOHN P director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 Stephenson Scott G director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 LILLEY DAVID director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-05-01 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2733 0
2020-04-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 52.14
2020-04-08 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 50
2020-03-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Phantom Stock 159093.4917 0
2020-03-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 3148.278 52.52
2020-03-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 987 52.52
2020-03-02 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 5682.64 52.52
2020-03-02 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 1964 52.52
2020-03-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 24476.284 52.52
2020-03-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 12055 52.52
2020-03-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 9660.489 52.52
2020-03-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 3284 52.52
2020-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 31819.643 52.52
2020-03-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 15672 52.52
2020-03-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1648 54.4956
2020-03-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 24476.284 52.52
2020-03-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 12055 52.52
2020-02-18 Stephenson Scott G - 0 0
2020-02-18 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 2288 59.02
2020-02-18 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 6913 59.02
2020-02-18 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1695 59.02
2020-02-18 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.66
2020-02-18 LaRossa Ralph A COO A - A-Award Common Stock 12200 59.02
2020-02-18 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 6608 59.02
2020-02-18 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 46256 59.02
2019-08-08 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 6562 0
2020-02-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 8235 59.02
2020-02-18 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 58.66
2020-02-03 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 59.373
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2500 35.11
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 989 59.05
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4356 0
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1532 59.05
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 4356 0
2020-01-23 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Units 2500 35.11
2020-01-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.59
2020-01-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 58.59
2020-01-02 Daly David Matthew President - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 617 58.99
2020-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2161 58.99
2020-01-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1055 58.99
2020-01-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2867 58.99
2019-11-07 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 403 0
2020-01-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2160 58.99
2020-01-02 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 408 58.99
2020-01-02 LaRossa Ralph A COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 58.7278
2019-12-16 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 58.79
2019-12-16 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 58.79
2019-12-02 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 58.7263
2019-11-19 SURMA JOHN P director I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-11-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 60.65
2019-11-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 60.65
2019-11-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 63.0483
2019-10-15 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 200 61.9
2019-10-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 61.9
2019-10-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 61.663
2019-09-16 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 60.82
2019-09-03 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 60.8242
2019-08-29 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2175.5853 60.08
2019-08-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 57.33
2019-08-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 57.1468
2019-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2019-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 57.1812
2019-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 57.1817
2019-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2019-07-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 58.2624
2019-07-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 60.45
2019-07-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2019-07-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 58.2608
2019-07-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 58.2628
2019-07-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2019-06-17 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 60.92
2019-06-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2019-06-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 58.7903
2019-06-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 58.7796
2019-06-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2019-06-03 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 58.7996
2019-05-15 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 625 59.25
2019-05-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28991 33.49
2019-05-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 59.1518
2019-05-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28991 59.0997
2019-05-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28991 33.49
2019-05-01 ZOLLAR ALFRED W director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 SWIFT RICHARD J director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 SUGG LAURA A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 LILLEY DAVID director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 HICKEY WILLIAM V director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2297 0
2019-05-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 59.1963
2019-04-22 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 1650 58.509
2019-04-15 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 13535 60.0353
2019-04-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2019-04-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 58.4916
2019-04-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 58.4892
2019-04-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2019-03-29 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller A - P-Purchase Common Stock 2.824 53.1248
2019-03-22 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 815.456 0
2019-03-11 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-03-11 Chernick Rose M Vice President and Controller I - Common Stock 0 0
2019-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 7689 59.045
2019-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 11309 59.045
2019-03-01 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 5026 59.045
2019-03-01 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 2956 59.045
2019-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7689 59.045
2019-03-01 Black Stuart J VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2464 59.045
2019-03-04 Black Stuart J VP & Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 59.0728
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Phantom Stock 126088 0
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28991 33.49
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 59.0831
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28991 59.0864
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 423 0
2019-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28991 33.49
2019-02-19 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 5870 56.22
2019-02-19 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 2802 56.22
2019-02-19 Black Stuart J VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1957 56.22
2019-02-19 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 6938 56.22
2019-02-19 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7471 56.22
2019-02-19 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 7471 56.22
2019-02-19 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 39462 56.22
2019-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2019-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 54.3
2019-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 54.31
2019-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2019-01-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2800 31.41
2019-01-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4259 0
2019-01-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2883 52.05
2019-01-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Phantom Stock 4259 0
2019-01-14 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Units 2800 31.41
2019-01-01 SUGG LAURA A director D - Common Stock 0 0
2019-01-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1467 51.5075
2019-01-02 Black Stuart J VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1057 51.5075
2019-01-02 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 845 51.5075
2019-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3160 51.5075
2019-01-02 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - F-InKind Common Stock 4753 51.5075
2018-12-13 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - G-Gift Common Stock 436 0
2019-01-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 3160 51.5075
2018-12-31 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 946.4641 0
2019-01-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28991 33.49
2019-01-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 50.8801
2018-12-13 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 100 0
2019-01-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28991 50.86
2019-01-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28991 33.49
2018-12-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2018-12-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 55.3948
2018-12-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 55.3895
2018-12-03 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2018-11-30 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 25046 55.5657
2018-11-01 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2300 53.015
2018-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28991 33.49
2018-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 52.957
2018-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28991 52.9514
2018-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28991 33.49
2018-10-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2018-10-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23415 52.5747
2018-10-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 52.5725
2018-10-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2018-09-27 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 952.0554 0
2018-09-04 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 28992 33.49
2018-09-04 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20837 52.6034
2018-09-04 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 28992 52.6031
2018-09-04 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Options 28992 33.49
2018-08-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 50.5969
2018-08-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 792 0
2018-08-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 990 0
2018-08-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 1979 0
2018-08-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 4037 0
2018-06-29 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 900.1107 0
2018-07-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 53.8514
2018-06-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 52.5001
2018-05-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 52.0187
2018-05-01 Ostrowsky Barry H director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 ZOLLAR ALFRED W director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 TOMASKY SUSAN director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 SWIFT RICHARD J director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 Shin Hak Cheol director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 LILLEY DAVID director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 JACKSON SHIRLEY A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 HICKEY WILLIAM V director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-05-01 Deese Willie A director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2604 0
2018-04-16 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - S-Sale Common Stock 16400 50.3647
2018-04-02 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 975.8294 0
2018-04-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 49.9049
2018-03-01 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 6570 48.47
2018-03-01 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 4134 48.47
2018-03-01 Black Stuart J VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 3455 48.47
2018-03-01 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 15869 48.47
2018-03-01 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 9329 48.47
2018-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Phantom Stock 143265 0
2018-03-01 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 2378 48.47
2018-03-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 48.3611
2018-02-20 Ostrowsky Barry H - 0 0
2018-02-20 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. A - A-Award Common Stock 3196 0
2018-02-20 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel A - A-Award Common Stock 7304 0
2018-02-20 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 8521 0
2018-02-20 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - A-Award Common Stock 30433 0
2018-02-20 Black Stuart J VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 2232 0
2018-02-20 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G A - A-Award Common Stock 5174 0
2018-02-20 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7304 0
2018-02-20 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 42514 0
2018-02-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 50.9979
2018-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2200 39.55
2018-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 860 51.46
2018-01-02 Cregg Daniel J Executive VP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Units 2200 39.55
2018-01-02 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1792 51.46
2018-01-02 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - F-InKind Common Stock 4920 51.46
2018-01-02 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G D - F-InKind Common Stock 977 51.46
2018-01-02 Black Stuart J VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 1230 51.46
2018-01-02 Linde Tamara Louise EVP & General Counsel D - F-InKind Common Stock 2753 51.46
2018-01-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 51.2483
2017-12-19 RENYI THOMAS A director A - A-Award Phantom Stock 942.7576 0
2017-11-28 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 385 0
2017-12-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 52.9021
2017-11-17 DiRisio Derek M President, PSEG Services Corp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2184.582 51.5
2017-11-09 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33000 48.205
2017-11-09 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - S-Sale Common Stock 33000 50.1175
2017-11-09 LaRossa Ralph A President & COO - PSEG Power D - M-Exempt Stock Option 33000 48.205
2017-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 39960 48.205
2017-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 49.609
2017-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 39960 49.7419
2017-11-01 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 39960 48.205
2017-10-27 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33533 48.205
2017-10-27 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 33533 49.4708
2017-10-27 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 33533 48.205
2017-10-26 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6427 48.205
2017-10-26 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 6427 49.45
2017-10-26 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 6427 48.205
2017-10-13 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 39960 48.205
2017-10-13 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 39960 49.2
2017-10-13 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 39960 48.205
2017-10-12 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 79920 48.205
2017-10-12 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 79920 48.825
2017-10-12 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Option 79920 48.205
2017-10-02 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G D - Common Stock 0 0
2017-10-02 Daly David Matthew President & COO - PSE&G I - Common Stock 0 0
2017-08-22 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 880 0
2017-08-23 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 1060 0
2017-10-02 IZZO RALPH Chairman, President and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 20833 46.5033
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Transcripts
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob and I'm your event operator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, July 30th, 2024 and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's investor relations website at https:\\investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Carlotta, please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning, and welcome to PSEG's second quarter 2024 earnings presentation. On today's call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO; and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release, attachments and slides for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed later today. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income as reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's material. Following the prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30 minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning to everyone and thanks for joining us to review PSEG's second quarter results. PSEG reported net income of $0.87 per share for the second quarter of 2024, bringing results for the first half of 2024 to $1.93 per share. This compares to net income of $1.18 per share and $3.76 per share for the second quarter and first half of 2023, respectively. The 2023 GAAP earnings have reflected higher mark-to-market gains that benefited those earnings. Our results for the quarter and year-to-date periods are summarized on Slides 7 and 9 in the webcast slides. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.63 per share for the second quarter of 2024 and $1.94 per share for the first half of the year. This compares a non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.70 per share and $2.09 per share for the second quarter and first half of 2023, respectively. As a reminder, our non-GAAP results exclude the items shown in attachments eight and nine, which are included with the earnings release. Dan will provide a detailed financial review later in the call, but I want to note that the results for the first six months of 2024 are on track with our full year expectations. These expectations reflect the anticipated resolution of PSE&G's distribution rate case later this year and the realization of most of the increase in PSEG Power and others 2024 gross margin concentrated in the fourth quarter. Turning to operations for the second quarter. New Jersey has experienced what may turn out to be one of the hottest summers. The early and extended heat wave we experienced last month made June 2024, the second warmest June in our records. Our electric transmission and distribution system performed exceptionally well, meeting the daily load requirements. In addition, our employees provided outstanding customer care, handling double the call volume compared to the same period in 2023, responding to requests for customer service and air conditioning repairs. PSE&G responded to the elevated coal volume and restored power to the electric customers affected by severe storms and heat related incidents, bringing them back online in under 24 hours, while responding to air conditioning service calls on average in nine hours. Our electric and gas systems also withstood a 4.8 impact earthquake in April, which resulted in required inspections, but resulted in no operational issues. At PSEG Power, we completed the scheduled refueling of our wholly-owned Hope Creek nuclear station on schedule, which lowered the fleet's capacity factor from over 96% in the first quarter to 82.7% for the second quarter. As expected, the refueling average also reduced total generation for the second quarter, but for the year-to-date through June, the two Salem units, which share the site with Hope Creek operated at a capacity factor of 99%, keeping us on track with our full year generation forecast of 30 to 32 terawatt hours. Switching to regulatory activity. In May 2024, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities or the BPU, approved an additional extension of our clean energy future or energy efficiency program of approximately $300 million, covering a six month commitment period from July of 2024 through December of 2024. And in June, the BPU approved the recovery of PSE&G's previously deferred COVID-19 costs over a five year period starting in June of 2025. We continue to participate in confidential discussions with various parties to resolve both our distribution, base rate case, as well as the $3.1 billion Energy Efficiency II filing. These discussions are ongoing in parallel and we anticipate that both cases can be resolved later this year. We recently submitted the final update to the base rate case filing, with actual data for the full test year. As a reminder, the combined electric and gas distribution rate case filing is primarily to recover incremental capital spending. We have proposed an overall revenue increase of 9% with a typical combined residential, electric and gas customer seeing a proposed increase of 12%, or less than 2% compounded growth over the six year period. As a single state utility with dual regulatory jurisdictions, this distribution filing covers approximately 57% of our total rate base. That said, customer affordability continues to be a priority. And we continue to compare favorably with our regional peers. PSE&G customers have a lower than average electric bill and the lowest gas bill in the region. Additionally, PSE&G recently filed with the BPU to implement another gas supply cost reduction this October, a third since January 2023, which will further help customer affordability this coming winter. Moving on to capital investments. We remain on track to execute PSEG's five year $19 billion to $22.5 billion capital plan through 2028. The regulated portion represents $18 billion to $21 billion of the total, focused on infrastructure replacement and our award-winning energy efficiency programs. PSE&G has placed into service over 2 million of the 2.3 million smart meters planned through our AMI program, still on schedule for completion by the end of this year. These investments are captured in our projections for a compound annual growth rate and rate base of 6% to 7.5% over the 2024 through 2028 period, starting from a year end 2023 rate base of $29 billion, which was up 10% over the prior year. We also continue to pursue potential incremental investment opportunities for future regulated growth. Along those lines, PSE&G is experienced an increase in new business requests and feasibility studies from potential data center customers across our service area compared with 2023 activity, which combined with increased electric vehicle charging is expected to drive load growth and system investment needs in the future. Switching to regulated transmission solicitations, which are scheduled for this summer, PSE&G expects that the BPU will announce the winner or winners of the pre-built offshore wind infrastructure during the second half of 2024. Last month, the BPU postponed its second state agreement approach process to procure transmission to support offshore wind generation, while it evaluates the impact of FERC and PGM activity on long-term transmission planning, cost allocation and interconnection queue reform. The BPU may reevaluate this timing and the need for a second SAA solicitation in six months, which would be this coming December. PJM opened the 2024 regional transmission Expansion Plan Window 1 solicitation earlier this month, which reflects their higher load growth forecast on the 2029 to 2032 plan horizon. That has been influenced by increased electrification expectations and data center load growth throughout PJM. We are evaluating the Window 1 solicitation for potential opportunities to bid this September. Now crossing the Hudson for a moment, and as expected, the Long Island Power Authority opened a request for proposal process to select the manager to operate their electric grid. Our existing operating services agreement and power supply contract with LIPA runs through the end of 2025. We intend to submit proposals into their RFP process and LIPA is expected to make selections early next year. At PSEG Power, we are also continuing to explore opportunities for the potential sale of electricity from our nuclear facilities pursuant to long-term agreements to supply large power energy users such as data centers and hydrogen producers. In addition, we are pursuing multiple growth plans that include thermal and efficiency upgrades at our co-owned Salem units that could potentially increase the combined output by up to 200 megawatts and qualify for tax credits under current rules. Today, we are reaffirming our guidance for long-term non-GAAP operating earnings growth of 5% to 7% through 2028, which is based on the threshold price of the Nuclear Production Tax Credit, or the PTC that also provides these units with revenue stability through 2032. We continue to deploy the free cash from the nuclear business to help fund utility growth without the need to issue new equity or sell assets and this continues to be a differentiating factor for us. Importantly, our solid balance sheet supports the execution of our capital investment program of $19 billion to $22.5 billion through 2028 and provides the opportunity for consistent and sustainable dividend growth. In summarizing the first six months of the year, solid execution is driving our expected results. We have settled two regulatory proceedings in the past quarter and we are working to resolve our pending base rate case and the EE II filings later this year. We are also advancing our five year capital investment plan focused on infrastructure modernization and energy efficiency initiatives. These investments will help prepare our system for grid electrification of transportation, homes and workplaces, while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping to lower customer bills. Last but certainly not least, I want to thank our employees for all they do. Their tireless efforts have helped us to maintain best-in-class operating statistics and customer service, especially through the challenging heat wave we have seen this year. I'll now turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financial results and outlook in greater detail and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG reported net income of $0.87 per share for the second quarter of 2024 and that compares to $1.18 per share in 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.63 per share in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $0.70 per share in 2023. Slides 7 and 9 detail the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business segment for the second quarter and first half of 2024. Slides 8 and 10 contain waterfall charts that will take you through the net changes for the quarter-over-quarter and six month periods in non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSE&G, which reported second quarter net income of $0.60 per share for 2024 compared to $0.67 per share in 2023. PSE&G had non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.60 per share for the second quarter of 2024 compared to $0.68 per share in 2023. The main drivers for both net income and non-GAAP results for the quarter were growth in rate base from higher regulated investments, offset by higher investment-related depreciation and interest expense, awaiting rate recovery in our pending rate case, as well as higher O&M costs due to regulatory, safety and weather-related activities. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, electric margin increased by $0.02 per share due to customer growth in the Conservation Incentive Program or CIP. And our final Energy Strong II recovery, an energy efficiency investment of $0.01 per share higher. Other distribution margin added $0.02 per share, while transmission margin declined by $0.02 per share due to timing of revenue and O&M, including our annual true up. Ralph referred to the heat wave we experienced in June, and this warmer weather combined with greater storm activity led to higher corrective maintenance costs during the quarter. Distribution O&M expense increased by $0.04 per share compared to the second quarter of 2023, also due to higher gas meter inspections and safety costs. Depreciation and interest expense increased by $0.01 per share and $0.02 per share, respectively. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, reflecting continued growth in investment and higher interest expense. Lower pension and OPEB income resulting from the cessation of OPEB related credits, which ended in 2023 resulted in $0.01 per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. Lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an annual effective tax rate, which nets to zero over a full year and other taxes had a net unfavorable impact of $0.03 per share in the quarter, compared to 2023. Summer weather in the second quarter as measured by the temperature humidity index was 42% warmer than normal and 99% warmer than the second quarter of 2023. In fact, the second quarter of 2024 was the warmest second quarter in our records going back 55-years, mostly due to that June heat wave. As a reminder, weather variations have minimal impact on our utility margin, because of the Conservation Incentive Program or CIP mechanism, which limits the impact of weather and other sales variances positive or negative on electric and gas margins, while helping PSE&G broadly promote the adoption of its energy efficiency program. The number of electric and gas customers, which is the driver of margin under the CIP mechanism continued to grow by approximately 1% each over the past year. On capital spending, PSE&G invested approximately $900 million during the second quarter and we remain on track to execute on our 2024 regulated capital investment plan of $3.4 billion. It's focused on infrastructure modernization and decarbonization initiatives. These include upgrades and replacements to our T&D facilities, last mile spend in the infrastructure advancement program, ongoing gas infrastructure replacement spending and the continued lean energy investments across EE, smart meter installation and EV make-ready infrastructure. We are reaffirming our five year regulated capital investment plan of $18 billion to $21 billion from 2024 to 2028. The high end of this plan includes the $3.1 billion CEF, Energy Efficiency II filing made in December 2023 that would enable commitments from January 25 to June 27 based on the BPU's EE framework. As Ralph said earlier, this proceeding is expected to be resolved at the BPU later this year. Moving to PSEG Power & Other. For the second quarter of 2024, PSEG Power & Other reported net income of $0.27 per share compared to $0.51 per share for the second quarter of 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.03 per share for the second quarter of 2024 compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.02 per share for the second quarter of 2023. In the second quarter of 2024, net energy margin rose by $0.08 per share, driven by nuclear, including the net impact of the nuclear PTC that took effect January 1st, 2024. Partially offset by the anticipated reduction in generation due to the Hope Creek outage and capacity revenue. As a reminder, for 2024, there will be a shape to our quarterly results as we move through the remainder of the year. We anticipate realizing most of the increase in the 2024 gross margin over 2023's gross margin during the second half of the year, specifically in the fourth quarter based upon the shape of our underlying hedges. This differs from last year when PSEG Power realized most of the step up in the annual hedge price in the first quarter of 2023. O&M increased by $0.05 per share, mostly driven by the scheduled refueling at our 100%-owned Hope Creek nuclear unit. Interest expense was penny unfavorable reflecting incremental debt at higher rates, and taxes and other were $0.01 per share unfavorable compared to the second quarter of 2023, primarily reflecting the use of a higher effective tax rate in the quarter that will reverse over the balance of 2024. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 7 terawatt hours during the second quarter of 2024 compared to 7.7 terawatt hours in the year earlier period and ran at a capacity factor of 82.7%. Nuclear generation in the first half of 2024 totaled 15.2 terawatt hours, which was impacted by the Hope Creek refueling, but also benefited from high capacity factor performance at our two Salem units, which operated at 98.9% for the quarter and at 99.3% for the first half of 2024. Touching on some recent financing activity. As of the end of June, PSEG had total available liquidity of $3.1 billion, including $113 million of cash on hand. Following the issuance of $1.25 billion of PSEG senior notes in March, during the second quarter, PSEG paid off $500 million of a 364-day term loan in April and $750 million of PSEG senior notes in June. With the PSEG term loan redemption in March, PSEG variable rate debt at the end of June consisted of a $1.25 billion term loan maturing March 2025, the entirety of which has been swapped out from a variable rate to a fixed rate to mitigate the fluctuations in interest rates. At the end of June, given our swaps, we had minimal variable rate debt. On the credit ratings front, in June, Moody's updated PSEG Power's outlook to stable from positive. And this change is consistent with our future plans for leverage and our targeted credit rating. We continue to maintain a solid Baa2 investment-grade rating at PSEG Power. In closing, we are reaffirming PSEG's full year 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 per share. Which reflects continued rate base growth from ongoing regulated investments, offset by higher depreciation and interest as we await resolution of our pending distribution rate case later this year. We are also reaffirming our forecast of long-term 5% to 7% compound annual growth in non-GAAP operating earnings through 2028, supported by our capital investment programs and the nuclear PTC. This concludes our formal remarks and we are now ready to begin the question-and-answer session.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you, guys for the time. It's nice to chat again. Back in action, as they say. Look, guys, nicely done. Seriously, a bunch of questions here, what you guys just said. First off, just talking about the data center opportunity, as is the buzz these days. Can you elaborate a little bit on what you're seeing today about your co-located opportunities? And how do you think about the economic benefit criteria that you would and other stakeholders would like to see contribute to the local community here? Obviously, that's a key element of bringing jobs to New Jersey here. So, can you elaborate on that? And then separately related, how would you characterize demand for data centers outside of perhaps co-located opportunities in New Jersey today? Any kind of quantifiable commitment numbers or soft numbers that you would kind of see today that you care to share?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, that's great. Thanks for that, Julien. And again, welcome back. Look, I would say a couple things to you. I'm going to answer your first question with purely my, choose New Jersey economic development hat on, and that is that it really has a couple of benefits of a co-located data center. And it's not necessarily just that it's co-located, it's the fact that it's a hyperscale data center. It's going to provide a clear signal to AI companies that are looking to locate here in New Jersey and in the region, that the infrastructure is here up and running and ready to go for their businesses to thrive. So, there'll be a lot of, I would say, trickle down opportunities that get created specific to the site. You obviously have your construction activities, but not the least of which would be driven by wire work that the IBWs here in New Jersey would benefit from. So, there's a lot of local opportunities that take place from the construction activities, they are one time. But as you've heard from others, they do grow over that one time. It's not all done in one month, it's over several years. They ramp up these data centers, and then there's a lot of other opportunities that happen for edge computing, or AI infrastructure around the hyperscale data center, like a co-located one would be. Specifically, to our utility at PSE&G, we are seeing quite a bit of activity that's taking place. We think about things and every utility is a little bit different as to what a commitment is. Some folks would count a commitment as only when they have a deposit for construction. Some would say a commitment is when you begin engineering work. Some would say just getting a lead in with some other financing that you need to do to get the utility to respond might be a commitment. Well, the way we think about it is those that are actually have moved on beyond the engineering phase, and we're seeing several hundred megawatts of data centers that are moving into that scenario here in New Jersey. And I would give you a little more breadth on that one, which is they all come in different sizes and shapes. Not only what the needs are at the location, from a power standpoint, it being different sizes, but actually the infrastructure that is required to support them are different based upon where they may be going, whether it's a green field, a brown field, or an existing building that has enough capacity already run to it. So, everyone's a little bit different. Everyone's a little different size, but it's taken place and it's significant for us.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent, guys. And just quickly, if I can just to clarify on the excellent on efforts, should we say complaint with Talend here, does that shift at all, your thought process on any co-located opportunities just out here, but I'm just curious.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, no, thank you, Julien. Again, look, that's not shifting us in any way, shape or form. We're committed to supporting the governor in his efforts on economic development. So, we are going to continue in that effort. I will say this to you, I'm a little bit concerned about co-located load as it impacts other industries. If you really think about co-located load, that doesn't just apply to data centers, that's for combining power plants, it's for cogeneration units. So, depending upon where this goes, I'm much -- while I'm concerned about data centers, I'm just as concerned about everything from rooftop solar behind a meter to co-generation that might be taking place.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right, great. I'll leave it there. Talk to you guys soon. See you soon.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please see with your questions.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. How are you?
Ralph LaRossa:
We're great. We don't have to say welcome back to you.
Shar Pourreza:
No, no, thank God. Rob, just to follow up on Julien's question on sort of the protests at FERC against the Susquehanna ISA. Obviously it's not gonna have a bearing on you pursuing a deal, right, with artificial island. But if the protest turns into a hearing, an NOI or an RTO process, do you kind of wait before signing a deal?
Ralph LaRossa:
I think every deal is going to be very specific. And look, I think the way our nuclear facilities are configured, they'll be different than a nuclear facility down the street. So, each one of those will be looked at differently, whether it's by PJM in its current rules that exist for co-located load or FERC, when they come out with some sort of a process, if they do under the current challenge that's there. So, no, I'm not really -- I don't think anything would hold us up. I think, again, I would just to reinforce, we're here to support the governor of New Jersey. The governor of New Jersey is focused on building out AI, he just passed and signed -- he didn't pass, he just signed some tax incentives, up to $500 million to attract AI businesses here to New Jersey. That just happened last week. If there's no more indication, and he's all in, that would be it for me. And we want to be a company that's supporting the policies of the state.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. Now that's helpful. It's a question we've been getting from investors. And then just last thing, obviously, you guys noted that the 5% to 7% growth rate kind of remains exclusive of upsides on kind of the nuclear business. So outside of kind of this data center opportunity, I guess, what progress have you made to implement some of the other upsides, right? So, any thresholds we should be thinking about on uprates as we head into sort of FIDs and some of these.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I don't -- I don't think we've really published anything sure specifically. I think everything is on track. I will say that, there's nothing that has raised a red flag for us in the process as we move forward, whether it be the fuel cycle changes at Hope Creek or the uprates that we mentioned in the prepared remarks at Salem, and certainly nothing on the long-term license extension. So, all three things are moving forward. And really, I have not seen a bump in the road from any internal analysis or anything that we've received externally.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, perfect. I appreciate it, guys. And big congrats on the execution. We'll be seeing you soon. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, good morning. Hey guys. Can you just comment, are you having discussions with your local transmission utility on an ISA for artificial island right now?
Ralph LaRossa:
I don't think anyone who has co-located load has to have a discussion with the transmission provider until they move forward with an interconnection agreement. So, I don't. We have not at that. We have not stated that we're at that stage, and we haven't filed anything.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And then just, I mean, you're in maybe a little bit of a unique position, and owning both unregulated generation and regulated transmission in PJM. And I don't think you all have kind of weighed in officially on the FERC docket, whereas it seems like the rest of the industry has. Any reasoning behind that or any thoughts you want to share on your views there?
Ralph LaRossa:
Well, Michael, it's not a contract that we're privy to, so I really, I don't think we feel that we have enough details to weigh in on what is there. There's a process at PJM that we trust will be managed correctly by PJM. If FERC sees a challenge with that process, I'm sure that they'll step in. We believe in following the rules, and so the rules that exist have some very specific steps in it. And if we were to go down that path, we would follow those rules. As far as weighing in on policy changes, again, I can't tell you how much we're trying to focus on supporting the governor's economic development plans.
Michael Sullivan:
Yep. No, that's super clear. I appreciate that. And then just, like, pivoting over to along the same lines with the states goals. Any stance on offshore wind in the state. Just in light of the Nantucket news up there, is it still kind of full speed ahead from the governor's standpoint?
Ralph LaRossa:
It is from my perspective; I have not heard anything different. I know there were some challenges with the blades up there, but there was nothing that we've seen that would indicate there's anything slowing down the process here in New Jersey. In fact, I think the governor, I keep talking about his economic development initiatives, and certainly offshore wind remains at the top of that priority list.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. There's an ongoing solicitation now, Michael.
Michael Sullivan:
Got it. Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Barclays. Please see with your questions.
Nick Campanella:
Hey, thanks. Hope everyone's doing well. Hey, so just one more on the data center contract opportunity. Just, I know that you have the three different units and you can really cycle that as and market that as a kind of 24/7 offering, just given the refueling outage dynamics. But just thinking about kind of quantum of size here, does that conceptually mean that you'd be willing to sell up to a third of your total capacity? Are you trying to work to do something much more piecemeal and smaller than that? Just how should we kind of think about that?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I look again, and Dan, if he wants to add anything, is he's a little bit closer to this in his, in his role with the development team. There's nothing that's that specific at this point for us. I think, look, there's so many different factors that'll be involved here. It'll be the ramp up that'll matter. It's going to be whether or not -- I've even heard some of these data centers are considering being a demand response resource. And that would certainly change the dynamics of any conversation. There's just so much uncertainty now, Nick, as to where you would settle with anybody on any of these cases. I don't want to talk about sizing. It would be really premature.
Nick Campanella:
Totally get that. And then I guess just given PJM's auction is coming up here, I think tonight we'll get the results. But just your five to seven forecast, do you just assume just constant payment from the last auction or is there already an assumption embedded in there? Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And there's assumptions that are embedded within our overall longer-term plan. But if you think about what we are from a generation perspective, the nuclear units' capacity is not a very significant component of the overall mix. And so, there's a -- it is not, our five to seven overall, from an enterprise perspective, is not terribly sensitive to what that is. We'll see what comes out here, I think, where the parameters seem to point. And a lot of what I've read shows things may be a bit more bullish than we've seen recently, but we'll find out what that looks like at the end of the day. I don't expect it to be significant enough to move us within, certainly outside of the range, and barely move us inside the range.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to circle back on data centers, maybe a little bit more, if I could. You least references increased inquiries at PSEG for data centers and the need for system investment to address this and EV charging. Could you expand a bit more on these comments? And how much is this additive to your current capital plan? Any other important points for us to think about here?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think we'll roll forward our capital plan at the end of the year, beginning next year, as we have in the past. So, any updates on that front will come there. Jeremy, I tell you, I think, look, I'll walk you through a couple of scenarios that we're seeing in the utility space itself. One is you'll have, if anybody's familiar with Northern New Jersey, there used to be a big Nabisco plant up in the northern part of New Jersey that doesn't exist anymore. Greenfield is there and it's near a 69 KV sub transmission line that we just built out, which is very close to a substation. I wouldn't expect a lot of capital required if someone was to locate something there. But if you are talking about a data center that's going to go into an old industrial site in one of the cities that has used up most of its capacity, and they've chosen that location because the construction of the building is such that they won't really need to put up much capital to support all the servers that are there and the floor load and everything else that exists. And I think that one might need a little more capital that's going to be involved and it'll be a little more complicated and we'll see where things play out. So, every one of them are different. Right now, I would say that it's a mixed bag as to what we're seeing and where things are falling out. But it's positive for us in the fact that we continue to see the growth that's taking place here, and we're attracting the businesses. A number of AI folks have been working with the state and we're excited about it. We're never going to be maybe as big as some of the other states are going to be, just by the geographic size that we are. But I think it's going to make a difference for us here.
Dan Cregg:
Hey Jeremy, the other thing I'd say is there's another layer as you take a look at what PJM has done from some of their competitive windows, that is data center related as well. Those are competitive solicitations. They end up in regulated transmission. You've seen us participate in those before where in Maryland, we have a $400 million and change capital opportunity, and I think more of those are available to us. They're competitive. We'll see where we go. We don't count on those within our existing plan, but to the extent that those come forward, there'll be an opportunity there for us.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think Dan just hit on a key point, Jeremy, the next PJM solicitation, I think it's referred to as Window One, is a good signal as to what's going to be required on the transmission side. Again, every last mile sub transmission, last mile investment will be different, but Dan's absolutely right. Watch that load profile change of PJM to see what's coming down the pike.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That makes sense. And any incremental thoughts you could share on the EV side as far as impacts that could have.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, again, we're seeing steady, slow but steady growth on the EV front. And proud to say we're not turning down any EV interconnections. We have the capacity, but we're upgrading that last mile. So that's really playing out exactly the way we expected it to. New Jersey is, again, a little bit unique in the condensed nature of our housing and our commutes. So EVs have not had the same challenges and pressure that maybe the rest of the country has seen as far as the expansion that was expected. So, we're kind of moving along at about the pace that we thought we would, and it's having the impact on the last mile as we had planned.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And just one last one, if I could, and appreciate the sensitivities and limitations and what you can say at this point, but as folks make their way back from the beach over August into Labor Day, just wondering. So you can share with us on the rate case process in stakeholder discussions, point out there just any sticking point or anything else that you could share?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I really appreciate you asking that. Look, I take it as a big compliment to the team here that we're this far in, and that was the first rate case question we got. So, the team is executing as we expect they would execute in those conversations. And the Board of Public Utilities, as I have been saying multiple times, continues to really run a very efficient and thoughtful process. So, I don't see there's no red flags there either. But I would point out that that recent COVID settlement that we just had was exactly the way we had thought it would play out. The fact that we expected the conversations not to become public has played out exactly that way. And so, I just very grateful for the way this has all been portrayed.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Great. Thank you for that. Hopefully everyone can enjoy their time on the shore.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my questions. It sounds like there's good momentum in terms of data center support from a policy perspective, and maybe on the contracting front. I was just wondering if there's any timeframe that you would offer in terms of when you think you could come to a colocation deal.
Ralph LaRossa:
No, David, we really haven't gone there. I appreciate the question, but we just try to be thoughtful about everything and make sure that the folks that we talk to are people that are aligned with the policies we have here in the state.
David Arcaro:
Yep, understood. Makes sense. And then in terms of the utility business request and increased data center interest at PSE&G, I was wondering, are you still seeing continued momentum? Is that backlog still growing and kind of, if so, is there a time when you would anticipate taking another look at the load growth outlook that you have in capex plans that would be required to address it?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, David. So, I referred to several hundred megawatts that are at what I would consider to be the very firm stage that we would have. And again, every utility looks at that a little bit differently. The other two stages are even more robust than the very firm stage. The leads and the initial engineering analysis that would be done here somewhat double or triple in each one of those stages. From what we're seeing in the firm construction side, that makes sense projects to look at, but we -- any roll forward that we have from a capex standpoint, we will do at the end of the year, as I mentioned earlier. So, we're just we're happy to see it taking place.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Excellent. Thanks so much for the color.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.
Carly Davenport:
Hey, good morning. Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Just wanted to quickly follow up on Jeremy's question on the call out on electric vehicles. Do you see any election related risk to the uptake of EVs in New Jersey and the potential investment needed to support that?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I don't think, I don't see any real risk from an investment standpoint here. I think most of those interconnections are done at the distribution level. There's not an election that's going to impact the state of New Jersey until next November. So, I think the only question, and we've talked about this before, is -- will you have 100% EVs by 2035 or will we get a 50 on that test? And a 50 on that test is still going to be quite a bit of market penetration for the electric vehicle industry here. So, I'm not concerned about an election change. Maybe it'll impact some of the tax incentives and some of the other things that we have. But again, the uniqueness of our condensed and compressed service territory, I think will keep electric vehicles at the forefront.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. Okay, great. That's helpful. And then switching gears, just, I guess as you think about your nuclear fuel requirements, I know you mentioned in the slides you're covered through 2026 and then have a significant portion also covered through 2027. I guess. Just how are you thinking about longer term supply just in the context of the Russia waivers kind of rolling off in 2028? Just curious of your thoughts there.
Dan Cregg:
Yep. We're thinking about it quite a bit, Carly, and it's very topical, given what you mentioned within your question. And so, there's been a fair bit of work that's been ongoing to move forward and extend out over time. And I would expect that, I don't know, maybe when we're sitting here at the next call, we'd have a little bit of an extension there we'd be able to offer. So, we're aware of it on top of it. It's not the most immediate, urgent thing that's going on from the standpoint of actually producing power, but we always have a lead time that we're interested in and continue to move forward on that. So, we'll continue to push that data out and give updates as we do it.
Carly Davenport:
Great. We'll stay tuned there. Thanks so much for the time.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please proceed with your questions.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. For the EV program or energy efficiency program with a six-month extension in place, are you looking at any expansion to the energy efficiency program given the load forecast in the service territory?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think that, Ryan, that we're in the middle of trying to settle at, we refer to it as EE2, I think will be that response that you're kind of inferring there that people are going to be looking at from a policy standpoint to offset some of the other data center and other load growth. So, the VPU has those filings from all the utilities here in the state, and they're taking a look at it. I think their timeline was the end of the year to reach, I think it was October timeframe to reach settlement. So, I think they're on track for that and looking for some consistency across all the utilities. So, again, completely aligned with the policy there. And I don't expect a big jump in the next couple weeks, ask for a new filing or anything like that. I would just keep an eye on the filing that is in front of them today.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. And then in your prepared remarks, you highlighted data center feasibility study that some of your potential customers are engaging in. What's the scope of that study? And are there different legal or regulatory frameworks that may be deterministic around what's viable?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, no, I mean, look, a feasibility study is where -- where we haven't gotten an official request to go out and buy the copper, the transformers, and start digging a hole to install a wire. So, our engineers are out looking to see whether or not those megawatts that are being requested can be supported. And it is, again, I think if you talk to every utility, we would refer to that differently with a different acronym, and it might be at different spots in the process. I would say our feasibility studies are the middle of the road for us. When it becomes real in that last couple hundred megawatts, that's what we consider to be a new business request, an official request that comes in, and then we have leads that are coming in all the time. But both the feasibility side and the leads are about triple right now, the actual new business requests that we've started to work on.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think it's inherent within your question, the legal and regulatory. I tend to think of it more operationally than anything else about just having the injection of that incremental need into the system. And can the system handle it? What will it take for the system to handle it?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I mean, the only time it would become a regulatory issue is if there was a concern that somebody turned down, whether it was a solar panel that was trying to get installed on one side or a data center because they didn't have the infrastructure to support it in a timely fashion. It might be a regulatory issue raised in that scenario.
Ryan Levine:
Okay, great. And just to confirm, so you're saying that the Amazon connection dynamic isn't being pursued or diligence through that process.
Ralph LaRossa:
You talk about a hyperscale data center we're handling through Dan's team in the commercial development side.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. To the extent there'd be a difference in the approach to the extent of something that might be co-located versus something that was, I think, inherent within your first question, which is about the feasibility study on the grid the utility has an obligation to serve. They're figuring out the best way to do it, figuring out what has to happen from a capital perspective, and from a system operation perspective.
Operator:
Our next question is on the line of Sophie Karp with KeyBanc. Please proceed with your questions.
Sophie Karp:
Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking the question. Just kind of curious how you're formulating your PJM strategy from here on, considering that you're also looking at co-location opportunities. I mean, like with this next BRA auction coming up at some point this year, would you still consider bidding into it or hold back? Like, what's your thought on that?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think the data center that's co-located, that doesn't exist right yet needs to be built. And so that's going to take some time, and that time is going to basically at some point, cross over what you're looking at from a BRA. But I think where we are right now, we're either not there or we'd be adjusted at the very [indiscernible]. So, I don't think that that's quite hit a crossover point yet. So, I don't think that's really critical to where we are.
Sophie Karp:
Got it. Thank you. That's all for me.
Operator:
The next questions are from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Weisel:
Hi, good morning, everybody. First, one quick one to clarify. I know you've talked about it a little bit, but of the land of the artificial island, how much of that is already leased out, and maybe you could talk a bit about just the size and shape of some of those parcels, and how suitable it might be for a small number of larger facilities or a larger number of smaller facilities.
Ralph LaRossa:
Andrew, it's a great question, but one that we haven't really discussed. And obviously we were being talking to folks and would give a handle as to what other people are thinking about. So, I don't want to go down that path, but I would just say to you, qualitatively, I mean, big picture. Yes. I would simply say to you this. Any data center that comes in, each one of them have a unique configuration and design. Some of the data centers would be comfortable with multiple stories. Some are not comfortable with multiple stories. Some have certain cooling needs, others have different cooling needs. So, each one of them, it'd be really hard pressed to say one acre of land equals this many megawatts, and we're seeing multiple designs, whenever we would have a conversation with anybody, and they think about it. So, I kind of sidestepping that specific question, but really think that's better left for the negotiating team and any conversations they're having with developers.
Andrew Weisel:
Understood. Certainly not one size fits all. Then if I can ask sort of a two-part question on the ZEC program. First question is, if we were to see the hypothetical red sweep scenario in November, would you have any concerns about the IRA and specifically the nuclear PTC being at risk? And then conversely, if you were to see data centers being co-located behind the meter, obviously, the original intent of the ZEC program was to support uneconomic struggling nukes. The nukes are no longer struggling. So, the question is, as you mentioned, the governor is trying to incentivize these tech companies to come. Would it make sense for New Jersey ratepayers, for PSE&G customers to be supporting tech companies? Is there a scenario that the New Jersey program gets revamped in one way or another if we do have hyperscaler signing co-located contracts?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So again, I'll put on a couple different hats here, one of which is actually even a customer hat. I would say to you this, first of all, the ZEC program ends next March. So, start from -- next May, I'm sorry. So, start from that scenario so that we would certainly, there won't be any conversations or that would take place that would -- we would benefit from a data center before then. Second, I think any company would be very hard pressed asking for a subsidy on top of a revenue stream that was similar to what was we think was just negotiated at Talend. And I'll leave my comment there. That's my customer hat being on. I would be hard pressed to think that you would pancake that on top of something else, whether it be the state subsidy or a federal subsidy. Federal PTC, we don't know what the definition is yet for gross revenues. And when that comes out, we'll certainly take a look at it. Again, I would be hard pressed to believe that they're going to allow a PTC payment on top of X dollar payment per megawatt hour that we're seeing in the marketplace. So, there's a lot of TBDs in what I just laid out for you, but there's also a little bit of just reality. And I would not be thinking that we'd be asking New Jersey ratepayers to be subsidized in tech companies. In fact, I would probably step in front of that conversation myself personally.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, great. So, assuming things go in the direction of data centers, it would be more of a market-based pricing mechanism going forward, you would expect?
Ralph LaRossa:
I don't -- well, again, look, I never want to say never, but I wouldn't. I can't see any other scenario.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, thanks for squeezing me in. I guess Carly is looking to get like an EV IRA Camaro or something. I guess, just quickly, you guys are in a unique position where you have unregulated generation. You guys are the regulated utility in New Jersey. Just all the talk is maybe higher capacity prices, higher power prices. I mean, is there, while that's going to benefit your units, but any thought on maybe the customer bill impact starts crowding out rate base investment, like managing that line? You guys are in a unique position where you kind of will see both ends of that.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Anthony. No, it's a great question, and it's one that we've been thinking about since 2008, right. We always go back and take a look when commodity prices were much higher and make sure that any projections that we have do not put us in that position. I've said it multiple times, and I'll say it again. Because of the good economic development work that we've done in this region, not just in this state, but in this region, the income has continued to do pretty well. And if you look at the share of wallet or pocketbook that anyone would have to put up to pay their utility bills, it's been pretty consistent over the last 20 years. So, I would expect that to remain the same. There's a lot of that information that's in our IR materials that we've gone over a bunch of times with you. So, I don't see anything that's on the horizon. Even in some of the conversations that are taking place that would lead me to believe that we're crowding out the required utility investment that's going to have to take place if we're going to have all this electrification.
Dan Cregg:
And I think as we kick into PTCs too, Anthony, I think it rightfully puts whatever support there may be for nuclear at the federal level, which puts on even playing field for some of the PTC and ITCs that you see for other carbon free investments. So, I think that helps as well.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks so much for taking the question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Bill Appicelli with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.
Bill Appicelli:
Hi, good morning. How are you doing? Just similar line of questioning of Anthony there, but just maybe around the demand and supply balance in PJM. So, going back to the point of you kind of being on both generation front and on TD, I mean, how are you viewing the demand growth broadly, whether it's behind the meter or otherwise? You did make that comment earlier about proliferation of colocation deals going forward in other sectors. I mean, do you have confidence in the current PGM process to ensure adequate reliability?
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey Bill, look, I got to leave that to the experts at NERC and FERC and every place else to look at PJM and their processes. I am one of the folks who has continued to say we need to keep our eye on the ball very, very closely. That won't change. I was very happy to see PJM react to our push specifically for our projections and to listen to the input that we provided them last year. I think they've started the process to look at load growth again. I think it's another four- or five-month process that they've just begun, and they'll come out with that towards the end of this year, beginning of next year. I trust that everything you've heard from other utilities that are within the PJM footprint and the load projections I said will be reflected in those, in those forecasts. And as a result, we'll either have a need for generation that'll be signaled through the capacity markets or we'll have some transmission that'll be required, and you'll see that come in there through the RTEP process. So, I'd like to see something longer from a capacity standpoint than three years or a year or whatever you might want to take a look at. It's tough, when we were looking at those types of things, it's tough to make a decision on building a power plant. We're not in that business anymore. We're simply here on the, with the assets we have, the clean assets that we have today and we're going to continue on that path.
Bill Appicelli:
Right. I guess maybe to that last point then, I mean, some companies within PJM have contemplated maybe pursuing legislation that could allow for regulated generation and rate base at some point. Right. If you feel like the system isn't.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, look, I think they may be closer to conversations they're having with PJM and they may have more frustrations about how PJM is listening to them. We were pretty vocal and we got a decent response last year. So, I don't want to really weigh in on what their conversations may be, and I think I might be doing that if I weigh in on their generation.
Bill Appicelli:
Well, I guess the question is for you, right? I mean, would that be a path you would ever consider?
Ralph LaRossa:
Oh, from our standpoint, look, I have said multiple times, Bill, we have more than enough capex to have our 5% to 7% growth rate with our replacement activities. If the state of New Jersey or the federal government says, hey, listen, we'd like utilities to go do that, we would certainly listen to those requests. But we like putting pipe in the ground and wires in the air right now, and we're not in the business of building new rotating equipment. So, if that happens, we certainly can put that skill set, we have it, we could restart it if we needed to, but we're counting on the marketplace that we're in to resolve it right now.
Bill Appicelli:
Understood. Thank you very much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think that's it for the call, correct, timing wise?
Operator:
Correct. Yes. I was just going to hand the floor back to you for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
All right, great. Well, I listen, great conversation. I really appreciate everybody calling in and appreciate the Q&A section, obviously was robust. I do want to just make one comment at the end here. We're in our normal storm and season that takes place, and I'm going to go a little bit off the script here from the standpoint that I want to thank all those that responded to the storm down in Texas and just remind us all of the hard work that's done, day in and day out by the line workers that responded in Texas. I was taken aback, I must say, by some of the behaviors that took place from a security standpoint down at center point and in Texas in general. And I just ask you all to keep that all in mind as we go forward into this season. Lights will go out, storms will come through, and there's people out there working really, really hard in some really tough conditions. And let's just keep them in our thoughts and prayers. With that, I thank you for calling in, and we'll catch up with you either on the road or in three months. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's Conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, April 30th, 2024 and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEGs Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan :
Good morning and welcome to PSEG's first quarter 2024 earnings presentation. On today’s call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO; and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release, attachments and slides for today’s discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed later today. PSEG’s earnings release and other matters discussed during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today’s materials. Following the prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa :
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning to everyone and thanks for joining us to review PSEG’s first quarter 2024 results. PSEG’s financial results for the first quarter are in line with our full-year expectations for 2024, and we are reaffirming our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 per share. We are also continuing to execute on our long-term strategy to grow PEG’s non-GAAP operating earnings by 5% to 7% through 2028, which we are also reaffirming today. This will be accomplished by investing in energy infrastructure and energy efficiency programs, which support greater electrification of transportation homes and workplaces, while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions while helping our customers lower their bills. Turning to the first quarter of 2024 PSEG reported net income of $1.06 per share compared to $2.58 per share in 2023, which reflects the absence of mark to market gains that benefited first quarter GAAP earnings in 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.31 per share in the first quarter of 2024 compared to $1.39 per share in 2023. As a reminder, our non-GAAP results exclude to items shown in attachment seven and eight, which we provide with the earnings release. The main driver for the quarter was continued rate-based growth from investments focused on infrastructure replacement, which was offset by higher investment-related expense. These expenses will build over the balance of 2024 as we await the resolution of our pending distribution rate case later this year. In addition, the nuclear production tax credit went into effect on January 1st, 2024, which provides our nuclear fleet with downside price protection through 2032, an important contributor to the increasing predictability of PEGS’ results. Dan will provide a detailed financial review later in the call, but I want to note for PSEG, power and other, some margin contribution will be skewed to the back half of 2024 as we expect to realize most of the increase in 2024 as gross margin versus 2023 during the second half of the year. Turning to operations, we are pleased to report that both our utility and nuclear businesses continue to exemplify operational excellence. PSE&G and PSEG Long Island met the challenge of quickly restoring service to tens of thousands of customers following severe rain and windstorms early in the year. And at PSEG Power, our nuclear fleet also operated well during the quarter, achieving a capacity factor of 96.8% and supplying New Jersey and the region with over eight terawatt hours of reliable carbon free base load energy. Shifting to an update of our pending rate case, our combined electric and gas base distribution case covering 57% of our rate base is progressing as expected at the BPU. We are currently working through the discovery and documentation phase, responding to requests for information from parties to the case, and we recently submitted updated test your financials. The procedural schedule for the case includes several weeks of built-in settlement discussions beginning later in the second quarter. Based on recent and prior rate case timelines, we anticipate that this rate case will be settled later in 2024. As a reminder, this combined electric and gas filing proposes an overall revenue increase of 9% with a typical combined residential electric and gas customer seeing a proposed increase of 12% or less than 2% compounded growth over this six-year period. During the same period, we have consistently delivered on our reputation for reliability, affordability, and nationally top-tier customer satisfaction scores with a nonstop focus on cost containment. PSE&G continues to manage its o and m to minimize customer bills while continuing to compare favorably to regional peers for residential, electric and gas service, and are among the lowest in national comparisons on a share of wallet basis. Now moving on to capital investments. We are on track to execute PSEGs five year $19 billion to $22.5 billion capital plan through 2028. The regulated portion of that program is $18 billion to $21 billion and it's focused on infrastructure replacement as well as our Clean Energy Future EE program. PSE&G has installed and placed into service about 1.8 million of the plan 2.3 million smart meters through our AMI program, still on schedule, it's still on budget for completion by the year end. These investments are projected to result in a compound annual growth in rate base of 6% to 7.5% through the 2024 through 2028 period. Premised on PSEG's year-end 2023 rate base of $29 billion, which was up 10% over the prior year, and we continue to pursue potential investment opportunities for future regulated growth. Among those opportunities, we are currently evaluating our competitive transmission solicitations in a Mid-Atlantic region, similar to PSEGs award of a $424 million project from PJMs 2022. Window three process. In April of 2024, PSE&G submitted bids to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities or the BPU for its pre-built infrastructure project to support offshore wind. The BPU is expected to announce the winner or winners of the pre-built infrastructure solicitation in the second half of 2024. PSEG is also evaluating two other upcoming regulated transmission solicitations this July. The first is the BPU's second public policy solicitation for offshore wind transmission infrastructure utilizing the state agreement approach. The second is PJM's 2024 regional transmission expansion plan window one solicitation, which is expected to include the impacts of higher load growth forecasts that have been influenced by increased electrification expectations and data center load growth through throughout PJM. At Power, our nuclear fleet is also pursuing multiple growth paths with modest capital spending needs. We have previously commented on our plans for thermal up rates at the Salem nuclear station, which could potentially add up to 200 megawatts of additional capacity and would qualify for clean hydrogen tax credits under current rules for both additionality and hourly matching. PSEG nuclear has also notified the Nuclear Regulatory Commission of its intention to pursue subsequent 20-year license renewals for our three reactors in New Jersey. This would extend the operational capabilities from 2036, 2040, and 2046 for Salem units 1 and 2 in Hope Creek to 2056, 2060, and 2066 respectively. Beyond these opportunities in nuclear, there's been discussion lately about the potential for direct power sales to data centers from our 3 unit artificial island site. We have had discussions related to both sides of the meter in recent months. In a form of new business inquiries at PSE&G for mid-sized data center construction of approximately 50 megawatts to 100 megawatts and behind the meter inquiries for co-located facilities that prioritize highly reliable carbon-free baseload power from existing facilities, all without the challenges faced by non-dispatchable generation. PSEG has a long history of aligning with New Jersey policy goals. This data center opportunity has the potential to create a nexus between economic development and energy policy, and we stand ready to support New Jersey. In its recent efforts to create an in-state artificial intelligence hub, our New Jersey nuclear units could provide access to a highly reliable, carbon-free source of baseload power and infrastructure consideration as increasingly mission critical for the large data center developers and hyperscalers. One thing that is certain at this point is that all these opportunities in nuclear would be incremental to our long-term forecasted growth rate guidance of 5% to 7% through 2028 based upon that PTC threshold price. Another differentiating factor for PSEG overall is that our nuclear operations provide the business with the added flexibility to fund its current regulated investment plan without the need to issue new equity or sell assets. I'd like -- my remarks by thanking our employees for all they do and their dedication to safety, reliability, and our customers. I'll now turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financial results and outlook in greater detail, and I will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg :
Thank you, Ralph. Good morning everyone. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG reported net income of $1.06 per share for the first quarter of 2024 compared to $2.58 per share in 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $1.31 per share in the first quarter of 2024 compared to $1.39 per share in 2023. We provided you with information on Slide 7 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business for the first quarter, and Slide 8 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter over quarter and non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Going with PSE&G, which reported first quarter net income of $0.98 per share for both 2024 and 2023, PSE&G had non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.98 per share for the first quarter of ‘24 compared to $0.99 per share in 2023. The main drivers for both net income and non-GAAP results for the quarter were growth and rate based from continued investments in infrastructure replacement offset by higher distribution, investment-related depreciation and interest expense, not yet reflected in rates as well as higher O&M costs compared to the first quarter of 2023. Margin was $0.07 higher in total driven by transmission at $0.03 per share, gas margin at a penny per share and other utility margin added $0.03 per share. Distribution O&M expense increased $0.05 per share compared to the first quarter of 2023, primarily due to gas meter inspections and overhead corrective maintenance following severe rain, wind, and flooding events early in the year, and tree trimming. Appreciation and interest expense increased by a penny per share and $0.03 per share respectively compared to the first quarter of 2023. Reflecting continued growth and investment, these costs of weight recovery in our pending distribution rate case anticipated to be settled later this year. Lower pension and OPEB income resulting from the cessation of OPEB-related credits, which ended in 2023, resulted in a penny per share, unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. Lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an annual effective tax rate, which nets to zero over a full year had a net favorable impact of $0.02 per share in the quarter compared to 2023, whether during the first quarter as measured by heating degree days was 17% warmer than normal, but 9% colder than the first quarter of 2023, which was the warmest first quarter in PSE&G’s records. As we've mentioned, the conservation incentive program or SIP limits the impact of weather and other sales variances positive or negative on electric and gas margins. While helping PSE&G broadly promote the adoption of its energy efficiency programs. The number of electric and gas customers, which is the driver of margin under the SIP mechanism, continue to grow by approximately 1% over the past year. On capital spending, as Ralph mentioned, PSE&G invested approximately $800 million during the first quarter, and we remain on track to execute on our 2024 regulated capital investment plan of $3.4 billion focused on enter on infrastructure modernization and electrification initiatives. These include upgrades and replacements to our T&D facilities, last mile spend in the Infrastructure advancement program, ongoing gas infrastructure replacement spending, Energy Strong II investments, and the continued rollout of the clean energy investments in EE, smart meter installation, and EV make-ready infrastructure. We are reaffirming our five-year regulated capital investment plan of $18 billion to $21 billion. This 2024 to 2028 plan includes the $3.1 billion CEF EE2 filing made in December, 2023, which would enable commitments starting January, 2025 through June of 2027. Based upon the BPU’s EE framework with investments being made over a six-year period. This proceeding is expected to be resolved at the BPU later this year. Moving on to PSEG Power and other, for the first quarter of 2024 PSEG Power and other reported net income of $0.08 per share compared to $1.60 per share for the first quarter of 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.33 per share for the first quarter of 2024, compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.40 per share for the first quarter of 2023. For the first quarter of this year, net energy margin rose by $0.03 per share, including $0.02 favorable contribution from nuclear driven by the net impact of the nuclear production tax credit, which went into effect January 1st of this year, partially offset by reduction in capacity revenue. Also, in energy margin gas operations increased by a penny per share compared to the year earlier quarter. Importantly, for 2024, while the PTC begins this year, there will be a shape to our results per quarter as we move through the year. We anticipate realizing the majority of the increase in the 2024 gross margin, over 2023s gross margin during the second half of the year based upon the shape of our underlying hedges. This will differ from last year when PSEG Power realized most of the step up in the annual hedge price in the first quarter based on lower pricing in the winter of 2022 compared to 2023. O&M increased by $0.03 per share, mostly driven by the start of the scheduled refueling at our 100% owned Oak Creek nuclear plant. Interest expense was a penny unfavorable reflecting higher interest rates partially offset by lower short-term debt balances. Taxes and other were $0.06 per share unfavorable compared to the first quarter of 2023, primarily reflecting the use of a higher effective tax rate in the quarter. That will reverse over the balance of 2024. Operating standpoint, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 8.2 terawatt hours during the first quarter of 2024 compared to 8.4 terawatt hours in the year earlier period, and ran at a capacity factor of 96.8%. Our Hope Creek Nuclear Unit is undergoing its scheduled refueling outage, which will include preliminary work on the fuel cycle extension project. As a result, as is always the case with outages for our a hundred percent owned Hope Creek Unit, we expect a little higher O&M and lower generation in the second quarter. Touching on some recent financing activity at the end of March, PCG had a total available liquidity of $5 billion, including $1.2 billion of cash on hand. Our revolving credit facilities totaling $3.75 billion were also extended by one year to March of 2028. During the first quarter at the end of March, PSEG had $500 million outstanding of a 364-day variable rate term loan, which subsequently matured in April of 2024, and PSEG Power had $1.25 billion outstanding of a variable rate term loan maturing March of 2025. The entirety of these term loans were swapped from a variable rate to a fixed rate, mitigating the fluctuations in interest rates as of the end of March. Given our swaps in cash position, we had minimal variable rate debt in early March. PSE&G issued $1 billion of 10 and 30 year secured medium term notes consisting of $450 million at 5.2% due March, 2034 and 550 million at 5.45% due March, 2054. A portion of the proceeds was used to pay the maturity of $250 million of 3.75% secured MTMs on March 15th. Later in March, PSEG issued $1.25 billion of senior notes consisting of 750 million at 5.2% through April 2029 and 500 million at 5.45% due April, 2034. A portion of the proceeds will be used to pay the maturity of $750 million of 2.875% senior notes in June. We continue to maintain solid investment-grade ratings. Looking ahead, we expect that PSEG's considerable cash generation combined with PSEG powers enhanced cash flow visibility from the nuclear PTC will support the execution of PSEG's five-year capital spending plan dominated by regulated CapEx without the need to issue new equity or sell assets. In closing, we are reaffirming PSEG’s full-year 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for $3.60 to $3.70 per share, which reflects continued rate-based growth from ongoing regulated investments offset by higher depreciation and interest expense that will build over the balances of 2024. As we await resolution of our pending distribution rate case later this year, we are also reaffirming our forecast of long-term 5% to 7% compound annual growth and non-GAAP operating earnings through 2028, supported by our capital investment programs and the new nuclear PTC. That concludes our formal remarks, and we are ready to begin the question and answer session.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Nick Campanella with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Nicholas Campanella :
Thanks for all the context around the direct power sales opportunities with your nuclear facilities. Can you just kind of comment on the potential, just the timing around any potential announcement and then how we should kind of think about when that could contribute to EPS if it were to be achieved. Then just, I know you kind of talked about being in like the nexus between economic development and energy policy. Is there something that you're looking for from the state before moving forward with this? Or just what are the data points that investors should be looking for to know whether this is becoming more of a reality or not? Thanks.
Ralph LaRossa :
Yes, Nick. Look, I think, the bottom line here for us is that we kind of see this as just a continuation of us following the state's policy, not setting it. I think the governor has been very clear about his desire to attract AI jobs to New Jersey and the infrastructure in data centers and other IT assets or things that he's looking to have in place. Now, the timing of something like this, I think is driven by a number of different factors, you have got some of the hyperscale, data centers and their timing. I don't want to, I really don't want to talk for them, and I don't want to front run the governor on some things that he may or may not be working on. So, we're here to support. And I think from a timing, overall timing standpoint, I would just really follow the state's announcements and policy initiatives around this effort.
Nicholas Campanella :
I appreciate that. I guess, I think you also said in your remarks that you would maybe provide an update later in the fall. I guess that would be, dependent on how the rate case kind of progresses, but to the extent that you're giving a refreshed kind of financial outlook, when would that be? And then also is the data center opportunity something that could be included in that, or it would really kind of be post that ‘25 and beyond?
Ralph LaRossa :
Yes, Nick, I think those are really kind of a couple of different pieces there, we'll roll forward later in the year as we roll forward every year. I think we start out with the CapEx and some other items at the end of the year, and then our earnings beginning of next year. But the data center specific, we're not going to change our plan. Power is still a very small part of this company's earnings stream. It is a all upside, so I understand the attention to it, but what we'll do is we'll roll in any PPAs, whether it be on data centers or hydrogens, opportunities or anything else that we have down at the plant. We'll optimize it, and as soon as we agree on terms around something like that, we'll roll it in, and be transparent about it. But right now, our plan as we look forward is to continue to project ourselves out based upon that PTC floor.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeremy Tonet :
Just wanted to touch base on a non-data center question here. You've been closely following, the state and regional transmission needs for offshore and now that data centers have come into the equation having an outsized impact, how do you see the transmission system changing overall and how do you see pegs role in this?
Ralph LaRossa:
Jeremy, I think, it's really my advice is to keep a very close eye on the PJM -- process as they continue to re-evaluate the topology of the transmission grid. I think there'll be opportunities across the PJM footprint. Look, you got to just take a look at what happened at with -- as a very simple example. That power plant was connected to our Susquehanna Roseland line. That power, at least a hundred megawatts or so of it won't be flowing out of the power plant into the grid. And so that'll have an impact on the topology in a very simple term. Then you've got data centers popping up in different locations. We have a number of requests that have come into our utility that we're processing not of the magnitude of a hyperscale, but smaller edge-type computing solutions. And so, each one of those will have an impact and the place where it all comes together, and I would encourage you to take a look at is through that -- tech process. Offshore wind will be one of the generation solutions for it, but there will be need for additional modifications to the grid and it's a TBD for all of us.
Jeremy Tonet:
And then just think about the picture at large in structuring tariffs in a way that doesn't impact other rate payers. Just wondering if you could provide any other thoughts on that. I guess, making sure this is developed in a way and such that other rate payers don't bear more burden. Look, if it's a behind the meter solution, the way rate payers will be held harmless on that is that they -- there won't be any additional infrastructure charges, so they wouldn't be burdened with additional infrastructure other than if there's new generation that comes on and it has to be supplied into the grid and there's different paths. Those interconnection agreements are the way that that's handled through cost allocations at, in the PGM market today. So, I think there's a very fair and transparent way that's taken care of. And I think each state has a different solution for in front of the meter data centers or loads that are popping up and those state individual tariffs. And I guess, every state will take a look at it from an economic development standpoint and determine how they want to handle it. But we haven't seen any changes in New Jersey to the tariff requirements for new business extensions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra :
Dan, maybe just what are -- like, just any updates on the nuclear PTC guidance from the IRS? It feels like we've been waiting on it forever. And then any implications that you see coming from that guidance on your financial plan, please.
Dan Cregg:
To guess, I wish I had a better answer for you, but we continue to wait for guidance to come out of treasury. I know that there's been a host of different approaches to treasury to try to spur some information to come out. But I know that you know that the PTC began January 1st, so we are in it. And I continue to think that the most important definition is as we've all thought about it, is the definition of gross receipts. And so that's what we're waiting for more than anything else. I think we're moving forward. We're finding out a little bit more about what ‘24 looks like every day that goes by in ‘24. And we continue to do what we've been doing is trying to think about what different potential outcomes could come from treasury and try to position ourselves as ideally as we can against the backdrop of that uncertainty. And I think we're doing fine there, but we would prefer to have it. I don't have a date for you. I don't have an estimated date. And I've not heard that one is forthcoming. So, I think we're in the same boat. I think we're just waiting.
Durgesh Chopra:
I appreciate that color. Sounds like you're kind of planning different scenarios and you've kind of baked that risk and opportunity into your 2024 guide guidance. Is that a fair way to put it, Dan?
Dan Cregg :
Yes. I think that's exactly right.
Durgesh Chopra:
And then just, you had this very nice chart that you used to share. I think it was maybe a bit dated now. It showed your balance sheet capacity in terms of funding more or higher CapEx and you have all this opportunity, whether it's transmission, related or on the nuke side. I know that's going to be capital light, but generally speaking at the utility, whether it's energy efficiency, whether it's the transmission opportunity, just can you give us a sense of, and the CapEx plan recently was raised light right in December 13% over the prior five year. So maybe can you give us a sense of how much more capital can the balance sheet cover without issuing any equity, if there's a way to do that? Thank you, Dan.
Dan Cregg :
Yes, and we've talked about, it's going to come off of the FFO to debt. And I think that, one of the things that when you did see that increase in capital that you referenced, there are different FFO to debt implications depending upon exactly what the capital it is. And kind of on the opposite ends of the spectrum, our energy efficiency program has a recoverable life, depreciable life, amortizable life, whatever you want to call it, closer to 10 years to 12 years and are more infrastructure-oriented investments have a longer, recoverable life. And so, when you look at those particular investments, you're going to see much less of an impact on your FFO to debt. Because you're going to see a lot of cash coming back to you quicker. To the extent that it's EE benefits, that's something that's more steel on the ground, whether it's on the transmission side or electric or gas side. And then to your other point, I totally agree with your comment that, on the power side it would be capital light, but it could be FFO positive in a fairly significant way. So, those are the elements that move around. If we're in the mid-teens, our current threshold for where we are is 13, 14, depending upon whether you're talking about Moody's and S&P. So, we've got some room in there, but I think it's not -- it's going to depend a little bit on the nature of the investment and I think as you saw more of that increase coming from EE of late, it was more credit friendly for us to move in that direction.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Shar Pourreza:
It's actually Constantine here for Shar. Thanks for taking the questions. I really appreciate the commentary on the nuclear opportunity. Maybe a bit of nuance from your perspective, is behind the meter a scalable opportunity for data centers in New Jersey, or is it a bit more kind of one off as you look at it? And maybe as you mentioned, there's a level of potential grid dependence and do you see that becoming a concern at all for regulators or is that kind of getting addressed in other forms, regulatory forms?
Ralph LaRossa:
Look the grid, I'll go backwards on that. The grid dependence, Constantine, I think is, it's not just data centers, right? We're seeing electrification across the board, and as policy makers continue to move in that direction, we have to be aware and make sure that the system's being built out correctly. I think it's being handled on multiple fronts. It's being handled at FERC. It'll be handled at each individual state, but there's plenty of avenues for those conversations that take place in and to keep the burden to customers to a minimum. No offense or buts about that -- the scalable side, I'm going to give it to Dan, because his team does a lot of work on the commercial front. I'll just tee up that there are different ways that you can look at it and Dan's team is doing a great job of talking to multiple folks and looking at multiple solutions that he can give you some more detail about it.
Dan Cregg:
It's a great question, but if I try to think about exactly then the nature of how you're asking, I think that by definition, if you're going to do something behind the meter, you're going to do it at scale. And so, I think that you wouldn't move into that situation with something that was not of scale and grow at the scale other than the natural fact that I think you're not going to have a data center of scale appear immediately. And so, it's more likely, and from what we have seen, you would see something that would be agreed to be upscale that would come in over time.
Ralph LaRossa:
And so, if you, if that meets your definition of scalable meaning it's going to grow as you step through time, I think that the answer would be yes, but I think you'd want to set that all up right at the jump. And Constantine, the only thing I'd add to what Dan said, just a reminder, where we sit geographically is a great spot, but I also point out to everyone, we're the only merchant site that has three units on it, so the ability to scale there is a little bit different and the ability to back up the supply is also very different. We're really excited about whatever those opportunities might be down the road because of that.
Shar Pourreza:
That's abundantly clear. And maybe as we look a little bit more broadly at just supply and demand in power markets and power prices are now well north of the PTC levels for the ‘25, ‘26 trip, which kind of continued to be the PTCs that were the core planning input. Do you plan to update guidance as you kind of recontract or start realizing those revenues and do those become ACC creative to the credit metrics and kind of the investment capacity that you talked earlier about?
Dan Cregg:
I think, if there's a change in how we are looking at things and what we are seeing that is in place in lock for a period of time for us to be able to say something about it, I think that's a logical time for us to do something constant. You've seen these markets for a long, long time. You know that they come up, they come down and they're cyclical. And so, in an instant, when they are higher, our intention is to try to be more predictable and come out to investors and let them know what they can count on and to the extent that there's some upside opportunities speak about it, but not have it be embedded until it is real. We're trying to just kind of keep things grounded. And so, my sense is with that you will probably see that as you continue to go forward from us.
Ralph LaRossa:
And just a reminder, Constantine, the highly visible and liquid PJM West top is not necessarily reflective of the entire PJM marketplace. So those numbers aren't dead on for everybody.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Carly Davenport:
Maybe just on the Hope Creek outage, you mentioned that you're doing some of the initial work on the kind of fuel cycle shift there with the outage. Could you just talk a little bit about sort of the scope of what's getting done and how much will be left in order to make that shift as we get to 2025.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. It's -- Carly, it's a very small piece of the puzzle that's going on now. There's a lot of engineering work that's going on. There's work that's being done on -- we're doing a rewind on the generator that in part of this outage, we've got an upgrade that we're doing -- we're basically cleaning out some old insulation on the cooling tower, which provides us about 8 megawatts of additional capability there. I mean small, little pieces, but really helps us in some -- based upon weather conditions and the rates that are required. So, lots of work to optimize the unit itself in anticipation of that fuel change that we're going to be making down the road. So, it's -- the investments will be made at Hope Creek over the next couple of fuel cycles, and then we'll be ready for the ultimate change to the 24-month cycle.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe you just mentioned a bit higher O&M related to the Hope Creek outage and then you talked a bit at the beginning some of the storm activity that you had to respond to earlier this year. Just any thoughts on where O&M for the full year could sort of trend versus last year with some of those early moving pieces in mind?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Carly, we may see it to move a little bit higher. It's funny. We talked a little bit about the weather in the earlier remarks, and it was a fairly mild winter, but it was a really wet winter, and we had some storms that were not exactly temperature-driven as much as they were precipitation-driven. And so, some of that drove costs a little bit higher as did. Any time we have a Hope Creek outage, it's 100% owned. So, there's a little bit of a bigger impact there. And so, some years, we'll have that, some years we won't. So, you'll see that come through on the power side. But really, the storms were one of the contributors to the first quarter's impact on O&M.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Weisel:
Appreciate the details on the nukes. Maybe just one -- can kind of pin you down a little bit to size up the opportunity, how much nuclear capacity do you have that's not committed to state programs like the ZECs or other obligations? In other words, how many megawatts could actually be committed to a new dedicated customer?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Andrew, I think, look, you can look at what happened at Talend as a placeholder for size of units at hyperscalers are thinking about. Just a reminder, our state plan kind of ends in May of '25, right? So, we're -- I don't see a data center being built before May of '25 down at that site. We may be in discussions with folks and have something to say sooner than that. But I don't expect any power to be flowing into a data center before May of 25 when that program ends. And then we'll see what the rules say on the IRA and how the PTCs interact with any of this kind of agreements that are reached.
Andrew Weisel:
But your expectation is the entire portfolio is available?
Ralph LaRossa:
I think, the entire portfolio could be available for long-term contracts. And again, I think that that falls into a bunch of different scenarios. I don't think there's anything that's a restriction and we'll continue to work forward and keep you posted.
Andrew Weisel:
Just wanted to clarify that then second pivoting to the energy efficiency side of the utility, the -- two program you filed in December calls for $3.1 billion of spending, much bigger than the first program at about $1 billion. Can you just talk to some of those dynamics of why each incremental kilowatt hour of savings is so much more expensive, and maybe more importantly, are you seeing any pushback from the BPU or key stakeholders, or is this all well understood and supported?
Ralph LaRossa:
Andrew, it's kind of simple as to why the dollar per megawatt saved goes up. I mean, you're going from changing light bulbs, which was the first effort that we started way back when and thermostat changes to now you're upgrading HVAC units and moving into commercial and industrial operations. That's very different just from a dollar per megawatt hour save standpoint. As far as the pushback, this was all part of the BPU's triennial, so a lot of what was submitted was based upon the needs identified by the Board of Public Utilities and really are not a surprise. The question will be just from a total spend standpoint, how far they would like to go. I don't think there'll be a lot of arguments about the cost per based upon one historic performance, which has been really good. And then second the types of work that we'll, the type of work that we'll be doing going forward. Andrew, also, within what the BPU -- I think to their credit, they tried to take a philosophy in approaching this, that they wanted to target things through this program that they viewed would not happen otherwise. And so, these light bulbs is an example of that given that incandescent are off the shelf, but in other examples too things that were going to happen anyway are not a great target for this kind of a program is to try to expand what would otherwise happen. And so that I think expands the reach a little bit moves them to a better place, but may cost a little bit more to get it done.
Operator:
Our next questions from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Sorry, another nuclear question. We've talked about this hypothetically the last -- let's say six, nine months hydrogen, I think there's supposed to potentially be like offshore wind port next to the plants around there, and then obviously data centers. Now just should we think about these as things, all things you can do there or you have to kind of focus to one and data centers is now kind of top of the list?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, Steve, it's a great question. So, the port is built. I mean they've done a ton of work down there, and that was the New Jersey Economic Development Authority has done a lot of work there. I don't know if we can pull a ship up there yet, but we're pretty darn close. So, there's been a ton of activities completed. And they started to lease some space to some of the offshore wind developers. And so, I think from a state standpoint, that's going pretty well. Then there's additional land that's available, and you could put a data center there, you could put how big it is, is a question right? You've got to figure all of that out based upon each individual developer design criteria and what they might be considering and the size that they're looking for. You could put a hydrogen unit there, you might have an electrolyzer or something that makes some sense to go there? Or maybe it goes a little bit off property, right? And again, it all depends upon the rules that come out and what we finally see from the IRA implementation. So, we're thinking about it as all of the above and an optimization strategy. Just to figure out what is the best way for us to use those -- that electricity that's coming off the units and doing in a way that's completely aligned with the state's policy. So, you could do it all. It's just a matter of what the policy is at the state and how big any one of those individual opportunities become.
Dan Cregg :
An on the hydrogen front, Steve, as just a reminder, an upgrade there would meet both additionality and hourly matching to the extent that those limitations continue on hydrogen. So, I do think we feel pretty good about what we have the ability to do down there and don't see limitations on having to pick one or the other.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just the other -- I guess the other part of this is just reliability in New Jersey overall and just a lot of focus on offshore wind that's been delayed and the like. And just -- so I guess from that last standpoint can kind of how are you in this alignment with the state thinking about that aspect to be able to do something behind the meter at nuclear?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, Steve, that power flows a whole bunch of different ways, right, not just in New Jersey, but other states, right? So, it's more of a PJM question as to that specific unit in those specific megawatts. But I will say this, and what we've set it in multiple settings, I apologize if it's a repeat, but that 2003 blackout gave us the opportunity to rebuild the transmission infrastructure and we did that. And as Sandy comes along when we rebuilt the switching stations and substations. So, we're well prepared for this. I think New Jersey is uniquely prepared and I've got my economic development hat on here for a second, but I think we're in a really good place. and the margins aren't quite as tight as some others might have. So, I think we're looking at this and trying to figure out what's the best solution for the state and we're doing it in a partnership that one-off of the states plans. So, we feel pretty good.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Ryan Levine :
Had a, I guess, one or two more on nuclear. In terms of the duration of contracts that your counterparties may be willing to sign. I think in your comments, you mentioned long term, any color you could share around how long term is as you look at it? And then to the extent that there's transmission constraints in PJM, how does the timeline of any investment there play into ability to serve that longer term?
Dan Cregg:
Ryan, I think, the simple answer on the first question is somebody's going to come in and build a data center that's going to be a very, very significant investment and it's going to be around for a long time. I don't have a specific number of years to give you, but I think long term is pretty comfortably thought about as being long-term. And I think on the transmission side of things Ralph just really, I think gave the right response as much as we have built out the transmission system, given what we went through about 20 years ago and 10 years ago I do think we're prepared for whatever flows need to happen within the region. Both of those I think are in pretty good shape.
Ryan Levine:
And then to follow-on the last line of questionings, to the extent that there is policy opportunities to maybe attract this customer base to the state, are there any legislation initiatives that you're keeping an eye on that may make it more palatable for other stakeholders to attract this load to the service territory?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, so I believe, again, I'm putting my other hat on. I believe the state has plenty of solutions for new businesses to move to New Jersey or to start up here. There was a number of different initiatives down at the EDA that could attract businesses, and I don't think anything that I've seen would require additional legislative changes. There may be some to speed things up or expand opportunities for folks, but I'm pretty confident that the state has the tools and its tool just to reach out to the opportunities that it has.
Operator:
Our next questions are from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller :
Since I don't have to apologize for a nuclear question, I suppose I'll jump in with another one here. Just thinking about what a contract at a very high level might look like for a co-located facility. And mainly, I'm thinking about who would take the risk on their -- of perhaps a non-performance or something like that. Is that something you'd be comfortable with or is that something you're going to essentially make the offtaker take that risk?
Ralph LaRossa:
Travis, I would simply tell you way too soon for us to be talking about anything like that. We're not in a position to talk about any details of any discussions. I would say this to you though, we've answered the question a bunch of times. And I'll tie it back to the hydrogen opportunities. We don't want to get into the commodity risk commodity risk situation. What we basically look at this is, we put a meter at point A and folks can pick it up from there and figure out what they're going to do with the electricity. And I don't see data centers or electrolyzers or anything else that might happen in that space as different.
Dan Cregg:
And Dan, I don't what you want to add. No, I mean, the only thing I would say is, is just from a practical perspective, if you think about a 3 unit site, you've got a lot of redundancy in the ability to deal with things like that. And so obviously contractual T's and C's are going to be worked through as across the entire breadth of, of whatever agreement you come to. But I think we start from a position of strength there.
Travis Miller :
And then one other question on the transmission in your bids and proposals there. How much does what you proposed or put in those bids depend on a second round of offshore wind projects coming in, is any of it or some of it.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, Travis, I think there's two answers there. First, the PBI, the interest prebuild opportunity does not require that. It's basically very similar to what happened in the first solicitation where use an analogy. It's a [Indiscernible] for pipes coming -- or wires coming in from the offshore wind farms. So that piece really is not dependent. I think the size and scope of the next solicitation is clearly dependent upon what -- how big that offshore wind opportunity gets for the state as a whole. And that -- we have not seen a scope of what that might look like yet.
Travis Miller :
Okay. And would that be through the PJM process or through New Jersey process?
Ralph LaRossa :
It would be a PJM process initiated by the state agreement approach from New Jersey. So, New Jersey would pick up the phone call PJM and ask them to run the process for -- on behalf of the state.
Operator:
Our last question is from line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson :
So just to sort of follow-up on the transmission stuff. I was wondering if you could -- what your thoughts might be with respect to the upcoming transmission policy agenda that's coming up here with FERC in the next few weeks. Any thoughts about how -- what you think might be coming out there and how it might affect you guys?
Ralph LaRossa:
No. I think -- look, there's 5 or 6 items that are there. We have some folks that are heavily involved in transmission in our wire’s organization, so many other ones. So, we're staying abreast of it. I think FERC has remained balanced under the current share. And I don't expect some wild swings in the outcomes there, but we're monitoring it closely right now, Paul, and I wouldn't have much more to add than that.
Paul Patterson :
Okay. And then just on another big policy push that we're seeing from different officials is grid enhancing technologies. And just wondering if your -- if you see -- how you see that might-- how that might impact you guys or your operations in the next few years?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, some of that grid enhancing has really been focused. I think there was a New York Times article on it about the upgrades of some of the conductors that people have installed. And we've looked at some of that and piloted some of that. As we've talked about, we've done a lot of transmission upgrades. We've also built into our system, the ability to do some additional upgrades. But I think that just becomes a cost benefit for the consumer based upon what additional capacity we would get out of it and whether or not we wouldn't want to front run the need. So, it's something we'll monitor and it's something that PJM again, will have in their tool chest to make some determinations upon how they want to solve some of the gaps that might get created as we move forward here with electrification.
Operator:
There are no further questions at this time. And I'd like to turn the floor back to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
I just simply want to thank you all for your continued confidence and support, we welcome all these questions and we really look forward to getting together with most of you at AGA later in May. Again, thank you to our employees, to our customers, and to and to our investors, and we'll see you all in California. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob and I am your event operator today. I’d like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 26, 2024 and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG’s Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning and welcome to PSEG’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings presentation. On today’s call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release, attachments and slides for today’s discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-K will be filed later today. PSEG’s earnings release and other matters discussed during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today’s materials. Following the prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning to everyone and thanks for joining us to review PSEG’s 2023 fourth quarter and full year results. For the fourth quarter of 2023, PSEG reported net income of $1.10 per share compared to net income of $1.58 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $0.54 per share compared to $0.64 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our non-GAAP results, excluding the items shown in attachments 8 and 9, which we provided with the earnings release. For the full year of 2023, PSEG reported net income of $5.13 per share compared to $2.06 per share for the full year of 2022. Our non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.48 per share for the full year came in at the high-end of our 2023 guidance range of $3.40 to $3.50 per share and marked the 19th consecutive year that we delivered results meeting or exceeding our guidance. Our fourth quarter 2023 financial results capped off a solid operating year. Building on this results, you can see on Slide 5 that we also reaffirm PSEG’s full year 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 per share as well as our 5% to 7% earnings CAGR through 2028 and our $18 billion to $21 billion regulated CapEx plan that supports our rate base CAGR of 6% to 7.5% through 2028. In rolling forward our 5-year capital plan to 2028, we added approximately $3 billion of investments to the prior plan that started from a year end 2023 rate base of $29 billion. These are all unchanged from our January 2024 investor updates and we continue to identify potential investment opportunities for future rate base growth. Dan will discuss our financial results in greater detail following my remarks. So I will focus on a quick look back then on our outlook and objectives for 2024. Since our last earnings call, PSEG has submitted two important filings at the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities. In early December 2023, we filed our $3.1 billion Energy Efficiency II investment program. This significantly expanded offering is driven by an increase in work to achieve the savings targets required under the BPU’s updated energy efficiency framework. If approved, this program will launch the state’s second energy efficiency cycle beginning in January of 2025 and run through June of 2027 with investments made over a 6-year period. Our EE2 filing aligns with the annual reduction goals of 0.75% for gas and 2% for electric contained in New Jersey’s Clean Energy Act of 2018, which are all unchanged and extends through the 2027 program year. In the interim, we continue to conduct our award-winning energy efficiency program, which remains oversubscribed. This last November, we filed for a second extension to this program totaling approximately $300 million covering the July through year-end 2024 period. As a direct result of these programs, PSEG is also advancing its Clean Energy Jobs program with a focus on lower and middle-income community hiring and training. Our EE programs continue to create value by lowering customer bills, reducing energy use and emissions and providing shareholders over the return of and on the energy efficiency spending. New Jersey continues to be a national leader in promoting the broad adoption of EE, and it remains an important tool in helping us reach New Jersey’s clean energy goals. The second regulatory filing we made in December was our first distribution base rate case in nearly 6 years. This case addresses 57% of our rate base, given that the other 43% is regulated under FERC Formula Rate. You are aware that this filing was required pursuant to the settlement of our second gas system modernization program back in 2018. The filing proposes an overall revenue increase of 9% and the typical combined residential electric and gas customers seeing a proposed increase of 12%, or less than 2% of compounded growth over the 6-year period. We expect the procedural schedule for this rate case to be issued in near term. And based on previous rate case time lines, we anticipate that this rate case will conclude later in 2024. The largest item in the rate case is to obtain recovery of our capital expenditures, already made to modernize system infrastructure and improve reliability, but not yet in rates as well as to implement recovery of expenditures for the previously approved AMI and electric vehicle programs. Besides capital recovery, the rate case proposes several mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of market volatility on customer bills, including insulating customers from swing in interest rates, severe weather events and revenue-related impacts of pension, providing for a more predictable monthly bill. We are also proposing a new time of use rates that will allow customers to save on their bills by shifting usage to off-peak periods, a rate option that can benefit all customers, including incentivizing residential customers to charge their electric vehicles during these off-peak hours. The BPU has added several commissioners in the past year. Governor Murphy recently appointed Michael Bange, a retired water utility executive with operations experience. The new commissioners continue to advance a full agenda and we already have several data points over the past 6 months that are consistent with prior results, including two recent rate case settlements that adopted the existing New Jersey return on equity rate of 9.6%. These agreements between the BPU staff, Rate Counsel, other interveners and the utilities demonstrate a continued preference for settlements over adjudicated cases in New Jersey. In 2023, the BPU also approved settlements to extend our GSMP II program for 2 years to invest $900 million on infrastructure monetization and greenhouse gas reduction as well as a 9-month extension for $280 million, covering our EE1 program through June of 2024. If you’ve followed us for several years, you know that we are also laser focused on cost containment. In 2023, we were able to lock in 4-year labor agreements with all our New Jersey represented employees, which addresses one of our largest O&M costs. This is just one example of our relentless cost discipline, which has positioned our distribution rate case increases to be the lowest in the state over the 6 years since our last rate case filing back in 2018. A comparison of our in-state electric and gas distribution rate increases since our last rate case is shown on Slide 12. PSE&G’s electric distribution CAGR was less than one-third of the average New Jersey electric CAGR and our gas distribution CAGR was less than half of the average New Jersey gas CAGR. PSE&G’s customer bills continue to compare very well with regional peers for residential electric and gas service and remain lower from a historical share of wallet basis. Of considerable note was our ability to reduce monthly bills for typical net residential natural gas customers with three commodity reductions during 2023 prior to the 2024 heating season. In addition to this focus on affordability, we continue to provide outstanding reliability. For the 22nd consecutive year, PSE&G received a ReliabilityOne award in the Mid-Atlantic metropolitan service area from PA Consulting, an industry benchmarking group. We are very proud this combines our reputation for reliability and our regionally favorable affordability with nationally recognized customer satisfaction scores. PSE&G ranked number one for the second consecutive year in the J.D. Power 2023 U.S. electric utility residential customer satisfaction study in the East among our large utilities. We also secured the top position in the J.D. Power 2023 U.S. electric utility business customer satisfaction study in that same region. Now, let’s turn to our capital investment programs. During the fourth quarter of 2023, PSE&G invested approximately $1 billion in energy infrastructure and clean energy, bringing the full capital spend to $3.7 billion, our largest ever single year expenditure. As I mentioned earlier, PSE&G finished 2023 with a total rate base of approximately $29 billion, which was a 10% increase over year end 2022 rate base. A key driver of this growth is our energy efficiency program, which continues to experience higher demand for residential and C&I offerings, accounting for close to $480 million of the $3.7 billion. Our infrastructure advancement program, which is focused on modernizing the last mile of our system, has never been more critical as activity in response to new service requests for EV make-ready and additional large specific projects, including data centers picks up. We also installed and placed into service 1.5 million smart meters through our CEF Advanced Metering program or AMI. The total AMI program, which is intended to replace more than 2 million meters in total, is expected to be completed this year, still on schedule and on budget. Now turning to our nuclear operations. The nuclear production tax credit provided in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act began on January 1 of this year and extends through 2032 with a payment of up to $15 a megawatt hour based on nuclear units gross receipts. Our nuclear fleet operated 93% capacity factor for the full year of 2023, producing approximately 32 terawatt hours of carbon-free baseload energy, which included a Salem 1 breaker-to-breaker run between refuelings. In wrapping up, I want to note a few other highlights. For the 16th consecutive year, PSEG has been named to the Dow Jones Sustainability North America Index. And for 2024, PSEG will also be included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook. U.S. News & World Report also recently named PSEG to its inaugural list of 200 best companies to work for. And in 2023, we were recognized by the CPA-Zicklin Index as a trendsetter for corporate political disclosure practices and accountability. We also completed the sale of our last fossil unit in Hawaii last year, making PSEG Power, one of the few carbon-free baseload generating fleets in the country. This fleet is well situated to benefit from potential data center growth, hydrogen hubs and a license extension with none of the potential upside in our current 5-year plan. PSE&G continues to execute on a robust set of growth investments aligned with New Jersey’s energy policy goals as well as expected growth from increased electrification, including EV adoption, port electrification as well as new business, including data center loads. These last two mentions were recently recognized by PJM in their January 2024 load forecast report for RPS zone. We are very pleased with the progress made thus far to increase the predictability of PSEG, an important part of achieving this comes from our ability to execute on our current 5-year capital investment plan without the need to issue new equity or sell assets. PSEG has delivered on what we said we would do, and I look forward with confidence in this team’s ability to continue to execute on our business plan in the years ahead. I’d like to close my remarks by thanking all 12,500 plus PSEG employees for their dedication and safety, reliability and our customers. I’ll now turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financial results and outlook in greater detail and I’ll be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph and good morning everyone. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG reported net income of $5.13 per share for the full year of ‘23 compared to net income of $2.06 per share for 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of 2023 were $3.48 per share compared to $3.47 per share for 2022. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net income was $1.10 per share compared to $1.58 per share in 2022, and non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.54 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to $0.64 per share in 2022. We’ve provided you with information on Slide 7 and 9 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business segment for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023. Slides 8 and 10 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes, the quarter-over-quarter and full year periods and non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSE&G, we reported fourth quarter 2023 net income of $0.58 per share compared to $0.70 per share in 2022. The PSE&G had non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.59 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $0.70 per share in 2022. The main drivers for both net income and non-GAAP operating earnings results for the quarter were growth in investments in transmission and gas distribution. These favorable items were offset by the expected decline in pension income and lower OPEB-related credits as well as anticipated higher depreciation, amortization and interest expense resulting from higher investments, not yet reflected in rates and the timing of O&M in the quarter that was within our expectations for the full year. Compared to fourth quarter 2022, margin was $0.03 higher, driven by transmission at $0.01 per share, and gas margin also at $0.01 per share higher, primarily driven by the clause recovery of our GSMP investment. Other utility margin was also $0.01 per share favorable. Distribution O&M expense increased $0.05 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting seasonality and operational timing. But for the full year, distribution O&M was flat versus 2022. Depreciation and interest expense each increased $0.02 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting continued growth in investment. Lower pension income resulting from 2022’s investment returns, combined with lower OPEB credits, which ended in 2023, resulting in a $0.04 per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. Lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an effective tax rate, which nets to zero across the full year and other flow-through taxes had a net unfavorable impact of $0.01 per share in the quarter compared to 2022. Weather during the fourth quarter, as measured by heating degree days, was 15% warmer than normal and 13% warmer than the fourth quarter of last year. As we’ve mentioned, the Conservation Incentive Program, or SIP mechanism limits the impact of weather and other sales variances positive or negative on electric and gas margins while helping PSE&G broadly promote the adoption of its energy efficiency programs. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers, the driver for margin under the SIP mechanism has remained positive with each up by about 1% in 2023. On capital spending, as Ralph mentioned, PSE&G invested approximately $1 billion during the fourth quarter and completed its largest single year investment program at $3.7 billion for the full year. The program included upgrades and replacements to our T&D facilities, Energy Strong II investments, last mile spend in the infrastructure advancement program, ongoing gas infrastructure replacements via base and GSMP II spending, continued rollout of the clean energy investments in energy efficiency, smart meter installation and EV make-ready infrastructure. We recently rolled forward our 5-year regulated capital investment plan to 2028, amounting to $18 billion to $21 billion, which incorporates both the new $3.1 billion CEF-EE II filing as well as the $300 million expansion of the existing EE program through the end of 2024. For 2024, our regulated capital investment plan totals approximately $3.4 billion. Moving on to PCG Power and Other. For the fourth quarter of 2023, PCG Power & Other reported net income of $0.52 per share compared to net income of $0.88 per share for 2022. Non-GAAP operating loss was $0.05 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to a non-GAAP operating loss of $0.06 per share for 2022. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net energy margin rose by $0.05 per share after including lower capacity revenues that were $0.03 per share unfavorable and gas offset were lower by $0.01 per share compared to the year earlier quarter. O&M comparisons in the fourth quarter improved by $0.01 per share, driven by the absence of a Hope Creek refueling outage. Lower interest expense was $0.01 per share favorable, primarily the result of lower collateral requirements. Lower pension income from ‘22 investment returns and OPEB credits from the lower amortization benefit were $0.03 per share unfavorable versus fourth quarter of 2022. And taxes and other were $0.03 per share unfavorable compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a partial reversal of the effective tax rate benefit from the first quarter of 2023. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 7.3 terawatt hours during the fourth quarter and 32 terawatt hours for the full year of 2023, running at a capacity factor of 86% and 93% for the quarter and full year, respectively. At year-end 2023, PCG Power had hedged approximately 90% to 95% of its expected generation for 2024 and at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour, up from $31 per megawatt hour in 2023. Touching on some recent financing activity. As of December 31, PSEG had total available liquidity of $3.4 billion, including $54 million of cash on hand. PCG Power had net cash collateral postings of approximately $113 million at December 31, more consistent with historical experience and substantially below the elevated levels seen during 2022. This reduction in collateral also helped to bolster PSEG’s cash from operations to $3.8 billion for the full year 2023 versus $1.5 billion for the full year of 2022. At year-end 2023, PSEG had $500 million outstanding of a 364-day variable rate term loan maturing in April 2024 and PCG Power had $1.25 billion outstanding of a variable rate term loan maturing in March of 2025. We’ve swapped a total of $1.4 billion from these two term loans at PSEG Power and PSEG from a variable to a fixed rate to mitigate variability in interest rates. As of December 31, reflecting our swaps, approximately 4% of our total debt was at a variable rate, which is down nearly 8% since year-end 2022, driven by a reduction in parent short-term debt of nearly $1.7 billion. We continue to maintain solid investment-grade ratings. Looking ahead, we expect that PSE&G’s considerable cash generation combined with PCG Power’s enhanced cash flow visibility from the nuclear PTC will support the execution of PSEG’s 5-year capital spending plan, which is dominated by regulated CapEx without the need to issue new equity or sell assets. In closing, we executed on our 19th year in a row of meeting or exceeding our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance. We are reaffirming PSEG’s full year 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.60 to $3.70 per share, and we are reaffirming the extension of our 5% to 7% operating earnings compounded annual growth rate through 2028. That concludes our formal remarks and we are now ready to begin the question-and-answer session.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Constantine Lednev:
Hi, good morning, team. It’s actually Constantine here on for Shahriar. Congrats on a great quarter.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi, Constantine.
Dan Cregg:
Hello, Constantine.
Constantine Lednev:
Good morning. Starting off on the power side of the business, do you see any further upside to earnings contribution from nuclear going beyond the sale of operates and refueling cycle adjustments like Hope Creek in ‘25 and maybe any pushes and takes as these could be accretive versus the utility growth on a consolidated basis?
Ralph LaRossa:
Constantine, I think we’ve been mentioning for quite some time that we’ve got – we potentially have some upside down from PPAs or something similar to that. But we’re going to look at what the state – how the state moves from an economic development standpoint and then make some decisions from there. And let me give you a very specific kind of thought process. We’ve done a lot of work down and around the plan in anticipation of the wind port. And so that work progressed and the state has been very happy with it. They have got some manufacturers that are either in the process of moving into that area or still considering it. But if they don’t use all of that area, maybe we could look at electrolyzer set up that could be down in that vicinity that could provide us with an opportunity. Maybe there could be a data center down in that area. But all of those things really are driven by the growth that the state is looking to do from an economic development standpoint. And as we have done for many years here aligns with the policy of the state and that’s going to enable us to continue to excel. So I think there is some upside. None of that is in our plan. None of it has been in our plan, and we’re just going to keep our options open.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay, and any particular timeframe that you are looking at or now ongoing?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, no. I think once we get a couple of years out here, we will be able to see – there is exert still in place through ‘25 and as all the companies are talking about a noise on the PTC rules need to come out. And once all of that comes together, we will be able to look at a plan to optimize the revenues from those plants.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay. Perfect. And maybe shifting to PSE&G for a little bit. Do you have any thoughts around any lessons learned around recent rate proceedings in the state? And just how are you thinking in terms of update filings through the process and maybe the activity around settlement negotiations like any deal breakers or settlement like ROE or anything else?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Constantine, I think the biggest lesson learned is that New Jersey has its act together. I really think that the state – if you look at what has happened recently with JCP&L and Atlantic City Electric, really good outcomes. And I wouldn’t say everybody is always – people are always looking for a little more here or there. But the process and the methodology that’s been used has been consistent with in the past. There hasn’t been any real deviations and we don’t expect there to be anything different with our case, going in with a case that’s not as big as some others have gone in with. And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, if you look at Page 12 in the deck, we’ve done really well by our customers over a time period that has seen a lot of inflation. We’re really not anticipating this to be a very contentious case.
Constantine Lednev:
Excellent. I personally appreciate that. Thanks. Thanks for taking the questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks, Constantine.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi, David.
David Arcaro:
Hi, thanks. Good morning. Hey, Ralph. Hey, Dan.
Ralph LaRossa:
How are you?
David Arcaro:
Good, good. Ralph, I think in the past, you’ve thought that there could be some upside to the PJM load growth outlook in New Jersey, and we’ve obviously seen some of that get reflected in the latest load forecast. We’ve also seen some state initiatives pushing for AI and data centers. So I guess what are you seeing on the ground in terms of data center activity, any upside to latest load growth expectations?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So a couple of pieces there, David. First of all, on the state level, we were very happy to see the PJM listened to our recommendations and most importantly, to the state’s policy. And so they have reflected both of those things in their latest forecast. That being said, PJM is a lot bigger than the state of New Jersey. And so we’re hoping that PJM takes a look across its entire footprint and make sure that the same methodologies are being used and a consistent methodology in all the states. States have different policies. So they may have different outcomes, electric vehicles being a great example, but how that – how any of those loads are being looked at should be consistent in our opinion, across the entire footprint of PJM. And then specifically in our backyard, we are starting to see some data centers pop up here. I would say – so far, what we have seen is somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 megawatts to 100 megawatts, but those conversations are just starting. Again, if you think about what the state has been pushing from an economic development standpoint, there is a lot of AI activities. The Governor is trying to entice some companies to move into the area. Once that happens, there might be some more opportunities for us. And our system is really well positioned. We have talked for years about the build that we did on the transmission side and the self transmission upgrades that we have been doing. It’s driving some last mile investments for us, but that’s also, again, consistent with what we have talked about with you all in the past.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And David, just a reminder, we do have the conservation incentive program that’s in place, and so what this matters more from our perspective, it’s less about the particular road growth and the volumes that we would sell. It’s much more about the infrastructure needs to have these folks be able to set up shop here in New Jersey.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. And the only – think about it this way, too, David, is if Dan is putting in a data center, he is going to use 100 megawatts, that’s 100 megawatts more to spread the costs over for all the customers. So, it also creates more headroom for our residential customers. So, all bits of it come together in a positive way.
David Arcaro:
Yes, that’s helpful. Got it. Thanks. And am I hearing you correctly that I am wondering about the potential T&D CapEx opportunity that could stem from this so far. Are you thinking it’s kind of within the programs that you are – that you are growing already. I am wondering if there is potential incremental upside if this becomes a bigger driver.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. We would certainly signal that to you if we did. But I think what Dan and Carlotta and I have been saying wherever we have been going has been, right now, we have got our last mile investments that we need to make. And then if you look at our CapEx bar charts, we have a few – a little bit of upside that’s built into the high and the low, but there is nothing that I would say is incrementally driving us above those charts that we have provided in the past.
David Arcaro:
Yes. Okay. Got it. Thanks. Then I was just wondering, as we think about affordability in the state, I was wondering if you could run through just the elements of rate headroom that you see looking forward, things that fall off of the rate plan, I am thinking storms, ZECs, etcetera, just to put the rate case increase into perspective.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, David, I am going to let Dan walk you through that, but because there is a lot of puts and takes that we have been taking people through, but start with Page 12 and take it from there.
Dan Cregg:
Ralph, these were up exactly, right. I think – I tend to not think about it as headroom as available dollars. I would just try to think about it as maintaining an affordable bill for the State of New Jersey. And if you take a look at Page 12, it shows that we have done a very good job of doing exactly that over the last 5 years. And this is on a relative scale, but I think we have been able to manage the system very well at an affordable rate. And also with the reliability that Ralph talked about in his prepared remarks and also the customers Ralph that you talked about within those remarks. You do mention something that I think is important as well. If we take a look at the ZECs that will roll off in May of 2025, you will see a couple of hundred million dollars that will come off of PSEG customers and closer to $300 million across the state. So, that is I think a benefit from an affordability perspective to the extent that there is capital that’s needed for the reliability of the system and some of the energy transition that can help in that regard. But we don’t really think about it as headroom, we think about just trying to maintain as affordable bills we can while we are still providing quality service to customers.
David Arcaro:
Great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks David.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey team. Good morning. Thanks for letting me.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning.
Durgesh Chopra:
Good morning Ralph. Just on the $3.1 billion energy efficiency filing, maybe can you just clarify, is that the spending, is that over a 6-year period, or is that from ‘25 to ‘27, that’s part one. And then part two, when should we expect a decision from the commission on that?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, great questions, Durgesh. And it can be a little confusing because they do talk about the period as a triennial period. And so that ‘25 to ‘27, it’s actually 2.5 years, which is the reason for some of the extensions that you have seen and that we remarked upon earlier in our prepared remarks. Think about that 3-year period as being the period during which you are going to get the commitments to actually have the work get done. But we have described for folks, and it’s important given the magnitude of the numbers that it’s understood that the actual spending to satisfy those commitments is going to be done closer to a 5-year to 6-year period. So, I think that’s how to think about it. It is described as a triennial period, but that’s more about getting the commitments. The spend will be over a little bit longer period. And the schedule that’s in place right now is for us to move forward. We made that filing, if you recall, December 1st. We did that at the same time as all of the utilities in the state. And you should see in the third quarter to fourth quarter. I think it’s October of this year coming up is the estimated date for us to get an outcome there.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. And that process is separate and independent from the rate case, right? Just to be clear.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, that is correct.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. Perfect. Thank you. And then can I just quickly follow-up, Dan, just latest thoughts and your discussions on the nuclear PTC and where do we stand on getting guidance in terms of timeline and what to expect there?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. We are still in a waiting game to guess. I wish I had a different answer for you. Treasury, as we have spoken to them last, which is just a couple of months ago, we made them aware as we do every time that we can, that it’s important for them is try to get the rules out sooner rather than later. But as we sit here today, they have not issued a date by which that they will provide that guidance. So, we are just awaiting their answer. I don’t have anything more specific, I wish I did.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thank you very much. Excellent. Thanks guys.
Dan Cregg:
You bet.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Carly Davenport:
Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning Carly.
Carly Davenport:
Maybe just to quickly follow-up on Durgesh’s question there. As we think about the interim before we get the PTC guidance, how should we think about the hedge program in the meantime, should we expect to see any potential incremental ‘24 hedges or starting to layer in ‘25 hedges between now and then?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Carly, so we have provided some data with respect to where 2024 is. And we do have some hedges out for ‘25, obviously, at this juncture. I mean it is a little bit more challenging, but you don’t know exactly how they are going to come out with that definition of gross receipts. And so what we have tried to do internally is just take a look at what some of the potential most logical outcomes could be and try to triangulate off of that to try to basically do exactly what we have always done is try to minimize the overall risk inherent with that business. And so if under different scenarios, you could see a moderation of risk by moderating our hedges a little bit. That’s basically what we are going to try to do, again the objective of being identical to where it has been in the past to minimize the overall risk. And if there is a little bit of a different hedge position we might want to put on to do that, that’s what we would end up doing.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. Okay. That’s really helpful. And then maybe just as you think about managing O&M, can you just talk about some of the moving pieces we should be keeping in mind for 2024. I know that there might be some upward pressure from some of the nuclear outages that you have, but anything that you would flag on O&M for ‘24?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, there is nothing really. Just a reminder, though, for everyone, we really have that great outcome that we had with our union negotiations where we have labor certainty starting last May and continuing where we had – we negotiated a 4-year deal with our unions at 4% increase than 3%, 3% and 3% in the subsequent year. So, there is no surprises that we see on the horizon from that aspect and there is a lot of talk certainly about fuel prices on the nuclear side, which we can give you some more about if you are interested. But it’s such a small percentage of the overall O&M that we have that it’s really – it doesn’t become a material conversation for us at this point. So, we don’t really see anything that’s coming at us there is always storms and there is other activities, but nothing that we specifically are concerned about.
Dan Cregg:
And even just to follow-on Ralph’s comments for ‘24 the nuclear fuel comment, most of what we will incur for 2024 is what’s in the reactor already. And so as we do step through the time, you have seen some increment in those markets. But for 2024, you shouldn’t expect anything very different.
Carly Davenport:
Got it. Okay. Great. Thanks so much for the time.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning everybody.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
One follow-up on nuclear, should we expect that there is a plan in place on what you would do once you get the treasury regulation around tax policy that you could roll out shortly thereafter or is there a more delayed timeline in terms of response that we should look for?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Ryan, I can’t say enough about Dan and his team as far as how much they have done as far as looking at a bunch of different options right now. So, I think we are very well positioned to act when we need to act and they have been very thoughtful about that. But I will give it to Dan to give you any more specifics.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I mean I think Ralph said it, we have done a lot of work trying to understand where this could come out. I guess I would say the treasury has given us the time to do that work by not having some guidance out as early as we might have liked. So, in those situations, what you do is you try to think about where they may come out with guidance and to prepare yourself to be ready for any of those outcomes. And so that’s what we have been doing. To your – the other part of your question, yes, we would let you know what our response will be after it does come out, we are able to thoroughly read through everything and make sure that we understand all the nuances that may or may not be in what comes out. I hope when it does come out, it will be won [ph] and done. Instead of guidance that we will have incremental guidance to follow, it would be great if it was – if it comes out on full form, but we will definitely share how we are approaching things once we know what the final rules are.
Ryan Levine:
Great. And unrelated, I think you were touching on time of use rates as being important for the data center potential opportunity in New Jersey. Is that – am I hearing that right? And is there any rate design mechanisms that are being discussed to maybe further attract that industry development in the state?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So, maybe a little bit less from a data center perspective, but certainly from a broader perspective, if you think about EVs, one of the things that we did touch on was that time of use rates is a topic that we would anticipate that we would work through within this rate case. And I think in Ralph’s prepared remarks, you talked about that being helpful to those that ultimately have EVs and could encourage some incremental adoption there. But that’s more where you would find it in the rate case and less about data centers more about electrification and EV.
Ryan Levine:
Great. Thank you very much…
Ralph LaRossa:
Which is really well positioned, Ryan, between the SIP that we have had in place for some time and where we are from a rate structure standpoint that Dan’s comments were bid on.
Ryan Levine:
Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Ryan.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. And I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Great. Thanks. Listen, this – I think the fact that we have got, we only have five questions on this call, folks asking questions that at the end of the day, it was another uneventful call for us. And that is just really what we are hoping to put in place as we have worked really hard as a team to close out our first full year together. 2023 was the year of execution that came across from a number of different areas in our company. But it’s all built on the base of a utility that’s really uniquely positioned. It’s got – it’s provided affordable service for its customers, it’s provided reliable service for its customers and its continued to deliver high-quality service based upon the results of all the polling that we do with our customers and J.D. Power just being one of those examples. And then you just combine that with a nuclear fleet now has continued to be more predictable, not only because of what we are seeing from the revenues side and the PTCs, but from an operating standpoint, you see in our deck, we went from 92% capacity factored and 93% capacity factors this year, and we will continue to improve on that. That’s our expectation. We want to continue to provide that great revenues from those plants that’s going to provide us with the opportunity to continue to not issue equity, and not sell any assets and continue the growth that we have had on the utility side. So, we thank you for all the support that you have given us over 2023, and you can expect from us the same consistent and uneventful progress that we have made throughout this past year. So, thanks and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob, and I am your operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for the members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today October 31, 2023, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning, and welcome to PSEG's third quarter 2023 earnings presentation. On today's call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO; and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release, attachments and slides for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income or net loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principle, GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's materials. Following Ralph and Dan's prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining us to review PSEG's third quarter results. Earlier today, PSEG reported third quarter 2020 net income of $0.27 per share compared to net income of $0.22 per share for the third quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter were $0.85 per share compared to $0.86 per share in the third quarter of 2022. Our non-GAAP results exclude items shown in Attachments 8 and 9, which we provided with the earnings release. We are very pleased with the results of both PSE&G and PSEG Power & Other which are continuing to fully meet our planning expectations. Through the first nine months, PSEG is on track to achieve our full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share. This morning, we also reaffirmed both PSEG's full year 2023 earnings guidance and our long-term 5% to 7% earnings growth outlook with the announcement of our third quarter results, which Dan will discuss in greater detail following my remarks. We had a very constructive quarter on several fronts. Our utility, PSE&G invested approximately $1 billion in energy infrastructure during the third quarter, bringing the year-to-date spend to $2.7 billion. For the full year 2023, capital spend is now expected to total $3.7 billion, slightly higher than our original plan of $3.5 billion, ahead of scheduled execution on our clean energy future energy efficiency and our infrastructure advancement programs. On the advanced metering front, PSE&G has completed the installation and placed into service just over half of 1.3 million of the 2.3 million planned smart meter replacements. Overall, we remain on schedule and within our cost parameters. We have seen strong demand for PSE&G's energy efficiency solutions, which is helping our customers save energy and lower their bills. To give you some perspective on how strong the demand for energy efficiency is. Consider that PSE&G now sells more energy efficiency solutions in a single month than we did in the entire year just a few years ago. In addition, we continue to support the energy transition and decarbonization of the New Jersey economy by upgrading the last mile of our distribution system as well as adding new electric infrastructure due in part to an increase in electric vehicle penetration. These critical New Jersey energy investments also support our rate base growth trajectory of 6% to 7.5% through 2027. The low end of PSEG's rate base CAGR assumes an extension of our investment programs at their current annual levels. Within the upper end of the rate base range is a potentially higher amount of infrastructure investment and upcoming filings for energy efficiency above their current run rates. Last week, the BPU reset the start date for the second three-year energy efficiency period to begin January 1, 2025, and run through June 30, 2027, for a total term of 2.5 years while adding a six-month extension to the current three-year period. The BPU requested updated utility filings to be aligned with this new period. The BPU's updated framework outlines a robust continuation of EE in the state and includes utility-specific net annual energy reduction targets for the upcoming filings. It also directs utilities to propose quantitative performance indicators aligned with the updated net annual energy reduction targets and the compressed 2.5-year time frame. The prior EE annual reduction goals of 0.75% for gas and 2% for electric during the program years of 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged. Earlier this month, the BPU approved a settlement to extend our current GSMP II program through December 2025 and provided for $900 million of investment to replace a minimum of 400 miles of cast iron and unprotected steel main at a modestly higher run rate than our previous programs. For the $900 million investment provided in the settlement, $750 million will be recovered through three periodic rate update clauses with the balance addressed in the future rate case. Through GSMP II, we reduced methane lease by approximately 22% system-wide from 2018 levels. This extension enables us to remain on track to achieve our long-term reduction target in methane emissions of at least 60% over the 2011 through 2030 period. PSEG's broader GSMP II filing is being held in advance. We expect that this filing, which also includes pilot projects to introduce renewable natural gas and hydrogen blending into our existing distribution system. We'll restart after the future of natural gas utility stakeholder proceedings conclude. The GSMP II extension approval provides for restarting the GSMP III filing by January 2025 with the intent of beginning the next phase of this work in January of 2026. While we make these investments, we remain focused on customer affordability and continue to diligently manage our O&M expense. We recently completed new four-year labor agreements with all of our New Jersey unions. I want to underscore the importance of this in relation to our costs labor is one of our largest expenditures. Having four years of labor cost certainty helps us keep customer bills affordable and provides our represented employees with wage predictability. PSE&G continues to compare very well to peers on a share wallet basis both in the region as well as nationally. Monthly bills for typical residential natural gas customers remained among the lowest in the region. Beyond that, for the upcoming 2024 heating season, the BPU approved PSE&G's request to lower the gas commodity charge to approximately $0.40 per therm effective October 1. This gas commodity charge, which is simply a pass-through for the utility has declined by a total of 38% since January 1, 2023. Now turning to our nuclear operations. The PSEG nuclear fleet operated at 95.8% capacity factor during the year-to-date period ended September 30, producing 24.3 terawatt hours of carbon-free baseload energy. Our 57% owned Salem Unit 1 just completed another breaker to breaker run and entered its scheduled fall refueling outage after operating for 508 continuous days between refuelings. Our efforts to transition our boiling water reactor at Hope Creek from an 18-month to 24-month refueling cycle through lower capital cost projects is ongoing. Related to our competitive transmission proposal submitted to PJM as part of its 2022 Window 3 solicitation -- their transmission expansion advisory committee staff recently recommended that a PSEG project being included as part of a comprehensive solution. PSEG's project outlines a $447 million investment with an expected in-service date of 2027. The PJM Board will announce their final decision in December. This is another example of regulated opportunities that we are pursuing, and we intend to leverage our considerable transmission skills and similar opportunities that arise. Switching topics for a moment to sustainability, you will recall that we committed to the United Nations back race to zero campaign in September of 2021 with the intention of submitting proposed targets encompassing scopes 1, 2 and 3 emissions to the science-based targets initiative. We made our submission in September and is now under review as part of SBTi's validation process. I'd like to conclude by recapping some of the progress we've made towards our goal of streamlining and improving the predictability of our business. We now have a lower business risk profile following the sale of the fossil business and our exit from offshore wind generation. February and August, we successfully reduced a significant amount of pension variability on future results with the regulatory accounting order and the lift-out and we'll consider pursuing additional mitigation on our upcoming rate case. And we have helped them secure the financial viability of critical important New Jersey energy assets with the decision to retain our carbon-free baseload nuclear fleet, enhanced by the revenue stability of a production tax credit that begins January of 2024. These actions helped to extend our track record of executing on PSEG's improved business strategy. Having a decade-long visibility of cash flows from the nuclear PTC will help us to maintain a solid financial profile that does not require us to issue any new equity or sell any assets to fund our five-year capital investment program. It supports our ability to pay a competitive and growing dividend. In closing, I want to share our plans for providing 2024 earnings guidance and other important financial updates. As you know, we will file our electric and gas distribution base rate case this December, and we'll update you with the parameters once that is public. We expect to complete our normal business planning in mid-December, so you can expect us to provide 2024 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance shortly after that business plan is completed. In early December, we intend to update our existing 2023 to 2027 CapEx and rate base projections to reflect the recent GSMP II extension through 2025 and two upcoming energy efficiency filings; one, to extend the current EE program out through the end of 2024, followed by a new filing covering the next round of EE programs through 2027. These updates will inform our longer-term assumptions for capital and rate base projections. And we expect to post a full roll forward of the capital plan rate base and long-term earnings CAGR in the January 2024 investor update. I will now turn the call over to Dan for more details on the operating results and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG reported net income of $139 million or $0.27 per share for the third quarter of 2023 compared to net income of $114 million or $0.22 per share for the third quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2023 were $425 million or $0.85 per share compared to $429 million or $0.86 per share for the third quarter of 2022. We've provided you with information on Slides 9 and 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business for the third quarter and year-to-date of 2023. Slides 10 and 12 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes for the quarter-over-quarter and year-to-date periods and non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSE&G, which reported third quarter 2023 net income of $401 million or $0.80 per share compared with $399 million or $0.80 per share in the third quarter of 2022. The PSE&G had non-GAAP operating earnings of $403 million or $0.80 per share for the third quarter of '23 compared to $399 million or $0.80 per share in the third quarter of 2022. The main drivers for both GAAP and non-GAAP results for the quarter were growth in transmission and distribution margins resulting from continued investment in infrastructure replacement and clean energy programs as well as lower O&M expense. These favorable items were offset by our anticipated lower pension income and OPEB credits, along with higher depreciation and interest expense resulting from incremental investments since the year earlier quarter. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, transmission was $0.03 per share higher. Electric margin was $0.02 per share higher, reflecting investment returns from Energy Strong II. Gas margin was $0.01 per share higher, primarily driven by the clause recovery of our GSMP investment. Lower distribution O&M expense added $0.01 per share compared with the third quarter of 2022, and depreciation and interest expense increased by $0.01 and $0.02 per share, respectively compared to third quarter 2022, reflecting continued growth in investment. Lower pension income resulting from 2022's investment returns, combined with lower OPEB credits scheduled to end in 2023, resulted in a $0.05 per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. Lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an effective tax rate, which nets to zero over a full year and other flow-through taxes had a net favorable impact of $0.01 per share in the quarter compared to third quarter of 2022. Weather during the third quarter, as measured by the Temperature-Humidity Index, was 11% warmer than normal, but 5% cooler than the third quarter of 2022. As we've mentioned, the SIP mechanism in effect since 2021 limits the impact of weather and other sales variances positive or negative on electric and gas margins while enabling PSE&G to promote the widespread adoption of its energy efficiency program. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers, the driver of margin under the SIP mechanism continues to be positive and will each up by approximately 1% year-to-date. On capital spending, PSE&G invested approximately $1 billion during the third quarter and is on track to execute its largest ever investment program of $3.7 billion in a single year. The program includes upgrades and replacements to our T&D facilities, Energy Strong II investments, last mile spend in the infrastructure advancement program, our ongoing GSMP II program continued rollout of the clean energy investments in energy efficiency and the energy cloud, including smart meters and adding new electric infrastructure to accommodate an increase in EV penetration. During 2023, we've taken actions to limit the impact of our pension on earnings and increase the predictability of our financial results. In February of 2023, the BPU approved an accounting order authorizing PSE&G to modify its method for calculating the amortization of the net actuarial gain or loss component for ratemaking purposes. This change is effective for the calendar year 2023 and forward. For the full year 2023, PSE&G's forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings is unchanged at $1.5 billion to $1.525 billion. Moving to PSEG Power & Other. For the third quarter of 2023 PSEG Power & Other reported a net loss of $262 million or $0.53 per share largely reflecting the pension settlement charge associated with the lift-out transaction. This compares to a net loss of $285 million or $0.58 per share for the third quarter of 2022. The onetime noncash settlement charge of $332 million, $239 million net of tax was related to the approximately $1 billion of PSEG Power & Other pension obligations and associated plant assets transferred to the Prudential Insurance Company. After providing for the effect of the lift out, our pension plans remain well funded, and there is no material impact on our non-GAAP operating earnings in 2023. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $22 million or $0.05 per share for the third quarter of 2023 compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $30 million or $0.06 per share in the third quarter of 2022. We previously mentioned that during the first quarter of 2023, PSEG Power realized the majority of the approximate $4 per megawatt hour increase in the average price of our 2023 hedged output which rose to approximately $31 per megawatt hour with higher winter pricing driving most of that increase. For the third quarter of 2023, gross margin rose by a total of $0.03 per share primarily reflecting the roll-off of certain full requirement BGS load contracts and had a higher cost to serve, resulting in a $0.04 per share of benefit compared to the prior year. The gross margin improvement also included higher generation which added $0.01 per share, resulting from the absence of a Hope Creek refueling outage that started at the end of last year's third quarter. These positive variances were partially offset by lower capacity revenues of $0.02 per share compared with the year ago quarter consistent with prior year capacity auction. OEM cost comparisons in the third quarter improved by $0.03 per share, driven by the absence of Hope Creek refueling outage expenses that were partly incurred in 2022's third quarter. Lower depreciation expense was $0.01 favorable compared with the year ago quarter, while higher interest expense was $0.01 unfavorable. Lower pension income from 2022 investment returns and OPEB credits from the lower amortization benefit were $0.03 per share unfavorable versus third quarter 2022. Taxes and other were $0.04 per share unfavorable compared to the third quarter of 2022, reflecting a partial reversal of the effective tax benefit from the first quarter of 2023. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 8.1 terawatt hours during the third quarter and 24.3 terawatt hours for the year-to-date period in 2023, running at a capacity factor of 95.3% and 95.8% for the quarter and year-to-date periods, respectively. For the full year 2023 PSEG is forecasting generation output of 30 to 32 terawatt hours and has hedged approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $31 per megawatt hour. For 2024, the nuclear fleet is forecasted to produce 30 to 32 terawatt hours of baseload output and has hedged 85% to 90% of this generation at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. The forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for PSEG Power & Other is unchanged at $200 million to $225 million for the full year. This forecast reflects the realization of a majority of the expected increase in the average 2023 annual hedge price in the first quarter of '23, as we previously discussed. For the balance of the year, higher interest expense largely captured in our November 22 update is expected to reduce PSEG Power & Other results. Touching on some recent financing activity, as of September 30, PSEG had total available liquidity of $3.8 billion, including $57 million of cash on hand. PSEG Power had net cash collateral postings of approximately $350 million at September 30, which is substantially below the elevated levels seen last year. In August, PSE&G issued $500 million of 5.2% secured medium-term notes due August 2033 and issued $400 million of 5.45% secured medium-term notes due August 2053. In September, PSE&G retired $325 million of 3.25% secured medium-term notes at maturity. Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, PSEG issued $600 million of 5.88% senior notes through October 2028 and $400 million of 6.13% senior notes due October 2033. Prior to pricing these notes, $800 million of treasury locks were executed, which had a positive fair value of $14 million, and this benefit will be amortized over the life of the senior notes, partially offsetting interest expense. Proceeds from the sale of the senior notes will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of $750 million of PSEG debt maturing this November. As of September 30, 2023, PSEG had $500 million outstanding of a 364-day variable rate term loan maturing in April 2024 and PSEG Power had $1.25 billion outstanding of a variable rate term loan maturing March of 2025. As of the end of the quarter, PSEG had swapped $900 million of the power term loan from a variable to a fixed rate serving to mitigate the impact of higher interest rates. As of September 30, reflecting our swaps, approximately 5% of our total debt was at a variable rate, which is down by half since year-end 2022. We continue to maintain a solid financial position with limited exposure to variable rate debt given the improvement in our collateral position, a staggered maturity schedule and PSEG Power cash generation to support funding our regulated business. In closing, we are reaffirming PSEG's full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share. PSE&G is forecasted between $1.5 billion to $1.525 billion and PSEG Power & Other is forecasted at $200 million to $225 million. That concludes our formal remarks. And operator, we are ready to begin the question-and-answer session.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Nicholas Campanella:
So I just -- I wanted to ask on looking forward to '24, if the broad market kind of underperforms here that could maybe affect your pension headwind, but also kind of understanding that you've done a lot of derisking this past year to take the volatility out, you had the lift out, you have the accounting order. Just -- could you just give us any sense how we should think about kind of pension contribution as a percentage of earnings for '24 or just even relative to the drag you've had year-to-date? Is there a drag that we should be thinking about for '24? And any detail on how pension has performed year-to-date versus your expectations as well would be helpful.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Nick. Sure. So listen, first of all, I appreciate you recognizing the work that Dan and his team and the regulatory team did already here. And we're seeing the benefits of it, right? We had -- I'll talk in engineering terms, we've reduced the sign of the sine wave and there's less volatility. So, there's nothing that we've seen or expect that it's going to become problematic for us as we look at '24. But I'll let Dan give you any more details he wants to provide on that, but just the result of some good work that we've accomplished this year.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And think that's really what we set out to do. It doesn't eliminate the effect of markets moving because we still do have attention, but we've been able to minimize the magnitude of what we would see. So, as we step through the year, markets have moved, they've been off a little bit in the last few months. We got another couple of months to go to we see where we land. I think that we're not immune to some of those movements, but I think the work that we've done will lessen that effect. And as we're looking at it now, the magnitude of what we intend to see or what we anticipate seeing as we move through year-end is something we can still manage through the overall O&M budget.
Nicholas Campanella:
Okay. That's helpful. And nice to see that you're ahead of plan on the CapEx, obviously, there's a bias hire here as you roll forward. And I guess we'll get more of those details in January, but as we kind of think about putting higher CapEx through the model, just how are you thinking about equity proceeds, if at all?
Dan Cregg:
No. There is no -- there has been no and there is no intention to have any equity issuance as we go through the capital plan that we have in front of you. So we've had $15.5 billion to $18 billion for the utility through '27 all year. We're still within that range as you look across the five years, that $3.7 billion is a great performance. So, we've been able to continue to move forward on that. But what you're seeing there is great and it's helpful, but it is still within our overall range. And there is no equity that we're going to need to fund even the high end of that range.
Ralph LaRossa:
And Nick, let me just double down on that, right? We've been saying to everyone that we can, no equity, no kind of equity and no sale of assets, so...
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Shar Pourreza:
Let me just slightly tweak Nick's question around '24. I mean, obviously, it's going to be a big year for PSEG with the rate case filing and your PTC guidance for nuclear and then the ZEC’s on setting, right? I guess how do you plan to sort of embed the various scenarios into '24 guidance when you roll forward at 4Q, even if you're we're thinking about this directionally? I mean, obviously, a swift resolution of the GRC could be part of this I guess, so how do we think about your base assumptions there? And any changes to the interest rate assumption and $0.30 under earning headwind for PSE&G that was presented a year ago, any incremental puts and takes on regulatory lag in the preceding year?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Shar. All great questions. And again, I'll give Dan some chance to answer details here, but you hit on all the moving parts that we're considering. And a lot of that has to do with driving for what our time frame is that we're going to come out with the -- with our earnings in December. So Dan, can you just give any more on some of those items.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, sure. We'll finalize where we're heading and let you know. And I think, there's always some assumptions you're going to make as you step forward, I think, on the rate case. We will file that at some point during this quarter. We've said that it usually takes somewhere between 9 to 12 months to move through. So, we'll make our assumptions around that. I would love to be able to tell you that we're going to have PTC guidance in hand, and we're going to know exactly where things land. But I think that there's a reasonable set of assumptions that you can make within that uncertainty until we get those regulations, and we'll do that. And our guidance on interest rates really will be driven by what we see in the market. [Technical Difficulty] We captured the moves that we've seen over the last year or so. And so, all of those will come into play, and I think we'll still be able to speak with confidence with respect to an overall guidance range for '24, and we'll do that soon.
Shar Pourreza:
And again, I don't want to put you in a corner, but it seems like there's probably more tailwinds and tail risks that as we're thinking about that shift from '23 to '24. Is that a fair assessment?
Dan Cregg:
Well, look, I think what we'll put forth is a balanced view. I think that both from Nick's question before and some of the things that you referenced, those are the kinds of things that will come into play as we put the estimate together. But I still think the way that the business is set up we're not going to have to worry about weather movements because of our decoupling. We've got a smaller pension variability that Ralph just mentioned. We've captured most of the interest rate moves. So, I think the work that we have been doing over the last 1.5 years or so is really going to pay off to enable us to be able to speak with confidence on that range when we put it out.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And then just lastly, just -- I mean, I guess, what are you hearing on the nuclear PTC guidance? And I guess, how do you plan a business case around it? I mean you have a refueling cycle, you've had some modest CapEx improvements on the back burner for nuclear, are those plans getting closer to a decision point, especially with the guidance?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Shar, I'd say a couple of things on that front. Just to reinforce again the stability that we introduced last year. We said it on the PTC floor, right? So we're not counting on anything above or beyond that. And that's the way our plan is set. So that should be pretty clear for you all and pretty transparent on that front, and then on the CapEx, we have said a couple of times, we're moving ahead very well on the refueling cycle at Hope Creek -- that work is progressing as we expected and those surprises there. And we'll probably be hearing something in '24 from us, a little bit more on the upgrades that we plan for sale and the timing of that. Effects on cal '24 though -- those will pay dividends as we go down the...
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. And again, sorry, just getting hit with a lot of questions from one of my questions. When do you plan on giving '24 guidance?
Ralph LaRossa:
We have said that we're going to give it after we finish our business planning process with our board. We have a review with our Board that we do in December. So, we'll be doing it in December.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Ralph, just a finer point on equity. I think this is going to be a Dan's wheelhouse. But you showed this slide in the June investor deck, which kind of talked the $4 billion in balance sheet capacity. How does that look now as obviously the puts and takes -- how does that look now? And then part two, just to be clear, as you roll forward the plan, and there's energy efficiency, there's obviously the transmission opportunity. Should we expect no equity as well as you roll forward to 2028?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So look, I'll give it to Dan again, give you some details, but that -- both of those things are very good news for us. The transmission opportunity as well as the energy efficiency growth that we see from the triennial at the BPU put forth. But Dan's answer, I believe, is going to be exactly the same to you. We do not need equity or anything that looks like it.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. If you guys Ralph is right. We are still moving forward with that same capital raise that we talked about earlier. We will be providing an update. Ralph referenced that in his earlier remarks, both from what we've heard back from PJM and from what the state is looking at on energy efficiency in this next triennium this next three-year period. And so, we will do that update as we go forward. But that will be the exact -- the way that, that will roll through is we have a range of capital. We will update that range. And on the other side of that, we will have what remains from the standpoint of that debt capacity. But I think you should still look with us -- look to us with confidence that we will be able to fund that without the need for incremental.
Durgesh Chopra:
Excellent. Very clear there. And then just maybe just on the topic of nuclear PTCs. I saw you've increased hedges for 2024, the percentage of output hedged. How are you thinking about '25? I mean, obviously, we are still awaiting guidance here. But are you like -- as you roll forward to 2025, are you going to be less hedged than before anticipating some clarity on nuclear PTC? Or what is your thought process there?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So guess what we've said to folks is that we don't have the exact calculation that's going to be made and what we try to do is think through what may come to us, right? So when you have some of that uncertainty, you try to think through the ultimate answer that will come and then try to think through the viability of those solutions and where they may land. And we've kind of reacted to that thinking against the background of some of that uncertainty. And so that doesn't mean that we would not be doing any hedges that means that we would be continuing to move forward at pace thinking about how that PTC may come out. Those rules will come out at some point, we hope sooner than later for that exact reason, right? It's just shaped how you're thinking about it. But I'd say, I don't think terribly different from what we had been doing with our hedging versus what we're doing now within 25 as a general rule.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
David Arcaro:
Let's see. Wondering if you could touch on your latest expectations for the rate case. Just has anything changed around your thinking for the revenue requirement, anything on the capital or O&M side that would shift your expectations as to what you file coming up this quarter?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, there's nothing really that I said -- we've been saying all along with what our plans are. I think the only thing that you'll see is that this rate case gives us the opportunity to roll in a lot of the other things that people have been asking about, whether it be interest rates or pensions, right, and the impact that pension expenses might have on us. So -- that's -- those are the only two real updates, I would say that we have, and we're keeping an eye on the CapEx, but most of those items that we talked about, whether GSMP, which we closed on, transmission opportunity exists, which will not be with the state of New Jersey, our energy efficiency would be a clause mechanism. So nothing really that I would say is driving a big change to us. Dan, anything you want to add?
Dan Cregg:
No. Just one thing, David, the one thing that I think we could lose sight of and shouldn't is that with all of the focus on a higher interest rate environment, that there's -- we've got some questions about what might be the implications to any kind of an impact on the rate case as we go forward. And I reminded folks, this is the first rate case filing we'll do since 2018. And so the early part of that period between rate cases, we saw lower interest expense. And so yes, what we're seeing in this current environment is higher, and so there could be some costs that would move through the overall revenue requirement from the way we have trust capital. But thinking about stepping through years where interest rates were lower and now we're in a higher rate environment, net-net, that does not calculate into a considerable rate increase because of interest rates. And so that's not a rate pressure as we go into this just as a reminder.
David Arcaro:
Yes. Got it. Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then we've got new leadership at the commission. I was just wondering if you could give perspectives on if you think the overall kind of priorities of the commission, and how they're going to treat maybe settlements or just overall views on your opportunities to work with them now going forward under new leadership in a different set of commissioners?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, David. Sure. Look, I would -- our opinions really don't matter as much as results. And I have to tell you, I could not be more pleased with the board and the action they took on our gas system modernization program. That quick action and decisive action to move that forward shows a couple of things. One is the work that we're doing and how it's helping the environment from a methane reduction standpoint is aligned with the policies of the state. And I would also say the desire for the board to continue to reach settlement was exhibited there as well, right? So, both of those things are real positives and just should reinforce that for only us, in our opinion, but for you all that we are in the same space that we were before.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to kind of, I guess, build a little bit on some of the points you laid out there. With the GSMP II extension, can you frame the settlement versus capital plan assumptions versus the longer-term goals of GSMP III? Are the state's ongoing energy transition discussions factoring into the settlement, just kind of looking at this more holistically.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So look, here's the way I would frame it. The two years that we agreed upon are at a higher run rate than they would have otherwise been based upon our filing. So that's a real positive. I think when you look at the two areas that were of concern in the conversation they were minimal from an investment standpoint. One was the renewable natural gas piece of our filing and the other was the hydrogen blending. And those are fair policy conversations that need to take place. So, the Board wanted to move ahead from a commitment standpoint to get the work done to continue to methane reductions. So, we're completely aligned there. The run rate was higher. And I think we just participate and see where policy wants to go on those other two items and make a decision on that. But from a long-term strategy standpoint, our commitment to reduce the cast iron in our system remains and it's supported at this time by the commission. So I see nothing really changing from that standpoint.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And I think against the backdrop of the capital plan, Jeremy, we had talked about the low end of the range being consistent with where we were in the high end of the range being more like what we had for this particular item more like what we had filed for GSMP III. And so, we were above our run rate, but not as high as we had filed. So, we're firmly within that capital plan range.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful there. And then following up with hydrogen, if I could. What's the latest messaging progress behind the hydrogen hub evaluation in the Northeast Mid-Atlantic there? And how should we think about the hydrogen opportunity across local industry, PEG’s nuclear fleet, gas blending, regional renewable electrification overall. What can you share there?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Jerry, we -- first of all, we participated on two of the hub applications. One was the Northeast hub and the second was the MACT II. The MACT II hub was the one that was selected by the DOE in this area and we're really happy and proud of being part of that solution. I think it's going to provide us with a lot of long-term growth opportunities in the region. And I say that from an economic development standpoint for the state. I think we'll have a real opportunity to place an electrolyzer somewhere in South Jersey. I think we'll have an opportunity to make use of some pipelines that exist in South Jersey and some storage that exists in South Jersey for hydrogen as well as some end users that are in that area, both in the Delaware and across the river in Southern Pennsylvania from refinery standpoint. That's from the generic economic standpoint. I think our play here will be really determined when we see what the rules come out from the IRA and how the PTC is going to interact with both the nuclear PTC and the -- and what -- so you might think of as pan-caking hydrogen credits on top of that or not. So we'll look at that. We don't have any of that baked into our plan. I think that's the key for you to take away. It's upside for us. I will also tell you that we have no expectation of being part of anything that's going to create any commodity risk for us on the hydrogen front, so we'll look at this. We'll help the state achieve some economic growth that they have down in that depressed part of our state, and then we'll see what role we specifically play within it as an enterprise.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And I think you guys have been pretty clear on no equity. So I will fully refrain from that part.
Dan Cregg:
I could say it again, if you like, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
No, we heard you loud and clear. But just, I guess, in December, any updates to get there. I mean, will we be getting kind of a CapEx update in December, and then would that be updated kind of later on '24 as we kind of -- some of the incremental items come through? And just clarity comes through on some of the different items. And if so, how does the expected EE filing match up with how you're thinking about it at last year's CapEx update?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, Jeremy, so we are going to give you a partial update on CapEx through '27, and then we will give you more in January from a capital roll forward standpoint. So that's kind of the rhythm the December update will be a little bit of the run rate that we talked about for GSMP and the EE filings that we have to file, which will be in the beginning of December for the BPU. That said, what we've been indicating is that, that filing will -- if you look at the triennial, you would expect it to be a little bit more than we have seen in the past from a run rate standpoint. We're still assessing it. I personally have not seen the final product from our team, so I couldn't give you any more details even if I wanted to. But the indication from everyone who has looked at that order that came out from the BPU is that there'll be more opportunity for us there.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So just trying to bring the call together here, tie it up a little bit. Look, you talked about December and then January. You guys have a lot of different moving pieces coming together, right? And so you've got this GSMP, you got the energy efficiency. You have the rate case proposal. You got the PJM transmission. I think in your comments, you said December presumably. And again, you comment on this new load growth update from PJM December, January as well. I just want to -- maybe just to ask it more directly, how do you think about that rate base CAGR? You said specifically in your remarks again today about being that run rate being the low end of that? You commented just out of Jeremy, amongst others, about seeing a new elevated run rate. How do you think about that 6% plus rate base outlook? How does that fit into the 5% to 7%. And what pieces are we missing here to the culmination, if you will, in January here? It seems like a lot of positives, no equity, low end of rate base CAGR clearly seeing a higher run rate. Just I'm trying to tie this together, if I can. I guess...
Ralph LaRossa:
I'm going to give Dan a crack at some of this, too, but I just want to reinforce -- I apologize if I said we were at the low end. I definitely is in that -- I did not mean to say that if I said it earlier, it was not my intention. So we're within the range. We've said that. And I would agree with you that there's a lot of positive momentum here, but nothing is firmed up yet. And so that's why we're where we are. And we will give you that information when we get later in December for the two items that I mentioned, the GSMP and then we'll give you some more in January. But Dan, do you want to add anything to that?
Dan Cregg:
No, I think that says Joe. There was not an update with respect to those numbers today. We have reaffirmed those numbers today. As we do step forward, it has and it continues to be a range. And so we've gotten some indication from PJM that there could be some incremental transmission spend is in the $400 million range. We've gotten some indication by going through that BPU triennial that EE could see a little bit of a lift frankly, the GSMP was a higher run rate, but was not as much as GSMP I was filed for. So, there's going to be puts and takes. And I think what we're saying is that you're going to see that update in full and some of those ranges having a little bit more color around that because we've stepped through another series of months as we approach the end of the year and move into year-end.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. A couple of clarifications there. If you don't mind, I was saying earlier, 6% to 7.5%, at least the -- the low end of 6% seems like it needs to come up through '27 -- would you be rolling forward the plan to '28? And then even more specifically within that, how do you think about the linearity if we're going to bring up this term again in terms of earnings, not just off of '23, but maybe off of a '24 baseline, if you will, if you don't mind?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Look, Julien, we said 6% to 7.5%, and that is where we still are. So if you're talking me up from that number, we're at the 6% to 7.5% -- what we're trying just to do is as we do step forward, we will give the indication as to what these things start to look like. The filing for EE has not been made. And we don't have that final answer from PJM with respect to that transmission. So I think those will follow. And as we do step forward, that base will move up and will some incremental capital as we extend the years of our forecast. We need to come up a little bit. These are the kind of things that we'll do that. So, I think you ought to Think about it as exactly how we presented it, that we're affirming those numbers as we step forward. We'll give you a little bit more color in '24 come December and then we'll move into a longer-term update on the other side of our overall finalization of our plan.
Operator:
Our next question is come from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Sullivan:
Sorry to belabor, but just to tie it up on the year-end call update. So fair to say that the earnings CAGR will be 2024 to 2028, is that right?
Ralph LaRossa:
That will be in the January time frame. That's what we said in the prepared remarks, and we will be giving that update at that time, exactly.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And kind of consistent with how you laid it out at the Analyst Day on the nuclear side of things. We should assume the nuclear PTC 4 level with anyone else being...
Dan Cregg:
Yes.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And then last, just on the credit side of things. So I think I saw earlier this week, Moody's took a favorable action or outlook on the power side of things. And any potential resource to the consolidated view there and how they might be thinking about your metrics and thresholds?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Nothing that we're aware of on the parent level, but I will tell you, I was getting some good work by Dan and his team treasury department to explain what's going on in our -- on the power side. And we were very happy, and I appreciate you recognizing Moody's letter it went out. So, thanks on that front.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think what they did, Michael, made sense, right? If you think about what nuclear has been and what it is now, that PTC does provide that exact floor that you're referencing. And so, we do intend to continue to talk about that within our numbers and nothing beyond that. But certainly, that stabilization is supportive of exactly what Moody's did.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Carly Davenport:
Most of might have been answered, but just two quick sort of housekeeping questions on nuclear, if I could. First one, are there any updates in terms of nuclear PTC in terms of your view on when we might get clarity there? And then the second one is just, is there anything to flag so far on the Salem 1 refueling outage in terms of how that's been progressing from both a timing and a budget perspective?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Look, I'll take the last one. The team continues to perform excellent work there, and there's nothing that we have there to discuss other than a normal average consistent with our business plan, so just a great opportunity for me to give kudos to the team down there. So thank you for that and Dan will give you the PTC piece.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I presume treasury is also doing excellent work down there, but they're not reporting now to it's not exactly when. So we don't have any particular color on timing other than to continue to reinforce that, but sooner is better than later, but we've not heard anything back yet.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
Real quick to go -- just touch on CapEx. That $200 million -- is that -- could you characterize that as new projects? Is that inflation on existing projects pull forward? I wonder if you could clarify that real quick?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Travis, I think what that really is, is the team has been doing a great job of knocking out the work that we have in front of us, and there are a couple of things that, that is think of it as just getting some of the work done a little bit quicker than anticipated, and we'll follow up with a more fulsome update as we go forward.
Travis Miller:
Okay. So would that pull out of 2024 at all or not a relationship there?
Dan Cregg:
No. Well, I would argue that you may be able to think about it that way. But as we give you an update, you'll be able to see what happens because 2025 could get pulled back into '24. It's a little bit fluid as they go forward. And if they're ahead on where they are right now, you can see some other things coming back into '24. So I wouldn't think about it as a reduction in '24. I think about it as just getting a little bit more work done early, and we'll continue to true that up as we go forward.
Ralph LaRossa:
And the only thing I would add there is the comments I made also just indicate there's a lot of interest on the energy efficiency front, and we've been able to continue to expand there. So, all consistent with what I indicated on the triennial and the support we get from the BPU.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And then a high-level question on offshore wind, I know you're not involved in that anymore, but obviously, a lot of stuff coming out in New York. Any thing you're hearing in regulatory discussions, political halls, anything you're hearing in terms of New Jersey's offshore...
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, look, we're just -- we're reading what you're all reading. And again, just happy with the decision that we made at this point.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Anthony Crowdell:
Just apologies a housekeeping on cadence rate filing in December, then we get 2024 guidance, earnings guidance in December, a little CapEx update. And then on the 4Q call, we get an update on rate base CAGR, earnings growth CAGR. Is that -- did I hear that correctly?
Ralph LaRossa:
That's about the rhythm we expect. I don't want to be tied into an hour or a day, but yes, that's the rhythm we expect.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then just an easy question. You talked about the financing, maybe interest rate hedges earlier in the call. There's a bond that's due, I guess, you guys have taken care of that. There's also one due, I guess, in June of next year, it was an attractive rate at 2.9%. Has that been included like in your interest rate hedges or -- what are the plans for that maturity?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So, we'll take that out and step forward. And Anthony, I think the important element is that last November, as we gave that update, we presume rates including spreads that were pretty comparable to where we are. We didn't capture every single dollar of it. But I think the delta between what we thought it was going to be and where we are currently from a market perspective is within the range. So, I think we've done a nice job of getting ahead of it, and we will take that out. And like a lot of our refinancing, we will see some higher rates as we flip them, but they're a caution our forecast.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. And then last, if I could jump in up to Mike's question earlier about the PEG Power outlook change, I guess, at Moody's. I mean, any thoughts to maybe potential changes at the parent company? I believe Baa2 PEG Power, stronger balance sheet there, the utility strong balance sheet, any read-through on or your interest in moving PEG Power -- I'm sorry, the parent up to Baa1.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I mean if you take a look at it, they didn't move the rating on power. It's just a positive outlook there. And so I think that ripple effect would be would be lesser as you look at the parent. But I think on balance, just if you think about the overall business mix reflective of PTCs and what we've done from an overall strategic set of decisions I think we're in a better position going forward.
Operator:
That is all the time we have for questions today. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No. Thank you very much, and try -- sorry, we had so much interest, but sorry, we had to move on. Listen, I just want to thank you all for your continued interest. The work that our team continues to produce amazes me. I'm really happy with the stability that we've created here and the certainty. We put out some internal information earlier today, and it's just amazing the amount of things that we continue to execute on. And I'll just highlight a few of them here. One was this gas system monetization plan and the work that we completed. We've continued to be recognized in awards different things that have come out of best employers and best companies to work for. We lowered our gas bills again for customers effective October 1, and we refreshed our Board of Directors. So, things that a lot of people sometimes struggle with, we just seem to be executing time and time again. So a big thanks to our team. Hopefully, you hear that not only in our voices, but from others that we're a company you can count on, and we're executing on the work that we said we would. And I'll just leave with this. Anthony said it, but happy Halloween to everyone. I hope you all have a safe and healthy Halloween, and that's not just for yourselves but also for your families. Enjoy the day. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, August 1, 2023, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning, and welcome to PSEG's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation. On today's call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair President and CEO; as well as Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release, attachments and slides for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income or net loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's materials. Following Ralph and Dan's prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us to review PSEG's second quarter results. This morning, PSEG reported second quarter 2023 net income of $1.18 per share compared to net income of $0.26 per share for the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter were $0.70 per share compared to $0.64 per share for the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP results for the second quarter of 2023 and 2022 exclude items shown in Attachments 8 and 9 provided with the earnings release. Results for the second quarter and year-to-date align with our full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share, which we reaffirmed along with our outlook for 5% to 7% long-term earnings growth through 2027 in this morning's earnings announcement. Dan will also discuss our financial results in greater detail, but this was a relatively straightforward quarter for both PSE&G and PSEG Power & Other results fully meeting our planning expectations and supporting full year segment guidance. We are focused on proving out the execution of our plans and grow PSEG while also increasing the predictability of our business. During the quarter, we completed PSEG's exit from offshore wind generation through the sale of our 25% equity stake in Ocean Wind 1 back to Ørsted, recovering our investment in the project. We also continue to implement the solutions we outlined to address pension variability. PSEG recently executed an agreement for a pension lift-out to further reduce prospective earnings variability. This transaction covers approximately 2,000 retirees and will transfer approximately $1 billion of related obligations and associated plan assets to the insurer. The transaction expected to be completed this month will result in no changes to the amount of benefits payable for the retirees and have no material impact on PSEG's non-GAAP operating earnings in 2023. Turning now to PSEG's capital spending plans. The utility portion of $15.5 billion to $18 billion remains focused on system modernization of our aging distribution infrastructure, Last Mile support in preparation for EV and building electrification, climate mitigation aligned with New Jersey's energy policies and our clean energy investments. PSE&G's investment program drives our expected compound annual growth rate and rate base of 6% to 7.5% from year-end 2022 to year-end 2027. The low end of this rate base CAGR assumes an extension of our gas system modernization program and our clean energy investments at their current average annual levels. While the upper end includes an extension of our Energy Strong II program, which is scheduled to conclude in 2024 as well as the remaining portion of our proposal for medium- and heavy-duty EVs and energy storage programs as well as a potentially higher amount of investment for GSMP and energy efficiency above current levels. With this robust capital program, we are ever mindful of customers' affordability. And on this front, PSE&G continues to compare well to peers on a share of wallet basis, both in the region as well as nationally. I mentioned in the last quarter that our 2023 utility capital spending budget of $3.5 billion was the largest single year plan in our history. During the second quarter, we invested approximately $900 million, bringing us to $1.7 billion year-to-date and midyear. We are on schedule and on budget. In fact, PSE&G just installed its 1 million smart meters out of 2.3 million that we have planned, and we continue to notice higher spend on electric -- new business related to electric vehicles and strong demand for our energy efficiency solutions. Speaking of energy efficiency, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities recently approved its second energy efficiency framework for the next 3-year cycle that will begin in July of 2024 and run through June of 2027. This past May, the BPU approved a $280 million 9-month extension of PSEG's first energy efficiency program to sync us up with the completion of the state's first cycle in June of 2024. You may recall that PSE&G started its energy efficiency programs earlier than the other New Jersey utilities bid. The BPU's new framework sets up guidelines for the next round of energy efficiency plans, which are now due this October for implementation in July of 2024. The energy efficiency annual reduction goals of 0.75% for gas and 2% for electric for program years '26 and '27 remain unchanged. The BPU also approved the performance incentive mechanism to drive energy efficiency above the preset goals. On the gas side of the utility, PSE&G filed the third phase of its gas system modernization program during the first quarter of 2023, which remains pending with the BPU. Through our gas system monetization program, we reduced methane release by approximately 22% system-wide. And assuming the extension at similar to current levels, we expect to achieve an overall reduction in methane emissions of at least 60% over the 2011 to 2030 period. There is also good news for customer bills for this coming winter. Following 2 basic gas supply service commodity charge reductions this past heating season, our recently filed BGSS rate proposes a reduction from $0.47 to $0.40 per therm. If approved by the BPU, the new rate will keep PSE&G's monthly bill for typical residential gas customers among the lowest in the region for the upcoming 2024 heating season. The BPU's future of natural gas stakeholder proceeding will also start this month, and we expect to participate in the upcoming technical conference and on follow-up meetings as New Jersey achieves its emission reduction targets, which will also will be considering the impact on costs and jobs. Kim Hanemann, President of PSE&G is already actively involved in the state's clean buildings working group that is considering various approaches to building electrification, including the development of Clean Heat Standard. Our overall approach to energy transition is to continue advocating for practical expansion of electrification in a manner which protects customer affordability, safety and reliability. We are having impactful conversations with PJM, our regional grid operator and our New Jersey stakeholders to increase the coordination and understanding of our relative perspectives on future load growth and the investment needed in existing T&D infrastructure to meet even a diluted version of New Jersey energy transition. Now turning to nuclear operations. The PSEG nuclear fleet continues to safely generate the majority of New Jersey's carbon-free baseload electricity. During the first half of 2023, our nuclear units generated over 16 terawatt hours of electricity and operated at capacity factor of 95.8%. Charles McFeaters, who many of you met at our March investor conference, was promoted to Chief Nuclear Officer during the quarter in a seamless and well-planned transition that included the Salem 2 refueling outage completed on schedule and on budget. The Power & other portion of PSEG's 5-year capital program is a significantly smaller amount of PSEG's total, mainly reflecting basic nuclear capital spending, but does include several low-cost, high-impact projects like the Hope Creek transition from 18 months to 24-month refueling cycles. So just to wrap up what I believe is a quarter that delivers on what we have committed to you, we are reiterating our full year non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share. Second, we continue to make progress on building our earnings growth platform by keeping our largest-ever capital program on track, financed with a strong balance sheet without the need for new equity or asset sales through 2027. And this financial strength gives us confidence in our long-term 5% to 7% growth rate in non-GAAP operating earnings through 2027 and supports our ability to pay a competitive and growing dividend, as we have for 116 years. Third, we increased the predictability of our financial results by streamlining the business with the completed offshore wind sale and delivering progress on reducing pension variability with the lift-out. Finally, we are working to keep our customer bills affordable during the energy transition with help from stringent cost controls and a culture of continuous improvement. Moving out the execution of our strategy and maintaining a safe and reliable network operations, that is what you can expect from this team. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on the operating results, and I will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Daniel Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. Earlier, Ralph mentioned that PSEG reported net income of $591 million or $1.18 per share for the second quarter of 2023 compared to net income of $131 million or $0.26 per share for the second quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2023 were $351 million or $0.70 per share compared to $320 million or $0.64 per share for the second quarter of 2022. We've provided you with information on Slides 9 and 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business for the second quarter and year-to-date periods and Slides 10 and 12 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes for the quarter-over-quarter and year-to-date periods in non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSE&G, which reported second quarter 2023 net income of $336 million or $0.67 per share. This compares to $305 million or $0.61 per share in the second quarter of 2022. The second quarter 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings were $341 million or $0.68 per share compared to $305 million or $0.61 per share in the second quarter of 2022. The main drivers for both GAAP and non-GAAP results for the quarter were growth in rate base reflected in higher transmission formula rate, recovery of infrastructure investments with roll-in mechanisms and a benefit from the reversal and timing of taxes, which we mentioned on the first quarter call, nets to 0 over the course of the year. These favorable items were partly offset by our anticipated lower pension income and OPEB credits, along with higher depreciation and interest expense from increased investment versus the year earlier quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2022, transmission was $0.02 per share higher, gas margin was $0.01 per share higher driven by the clause recovery of GSMP investment. Electric margin was $0.01 per share higher, reflecting investment returns from Energy Strong and other electric and gas margin added $0.02 per share based on a benefit from the tax adjustment credit and appliance service results. Lower distribution O&M expense added $0.02 per share compared to the second quarter of 2022, primarily reflecting reduced weather-related corrective maintenance. Depreciation and interest expense increased by $0.01 and $0.02 per share, respectively, compared to the second quarter of 2022, reflecting continued growth in investment. Lower pension income resulting from 2022's investment returns, combined with lower OPEB credits scheduled to end in 2023, resulted in a $0.04 per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. Lastly, the timing of taxes recorded through an effective tax rate, which nets to 0 over a full year and other flow-through taxes had a net favorable impact of $0.06 per share in the quarter compared to the second quarter of 2022. Second quarter weather typically contains both heating and cooling sales. For 2023, winter weather during the second quarter was 23% warmer in terms of heating degree days than the second quarter of 2022, and summer weather was 34% cooler than second quarter 2022 as measured by the temperature humidity index. As we've mentioned, the SIP mechanism in effect since 2021, limits the impact of weather and other sales variances, positive or negative on electric and gas margins while importantly, enabling PSE&G to promote the widespread adoption of its energy efficiency programs. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers, the driver of margin under the SIP mechanism continues to be positive and were each up 1% during the trailing 12-month period. On capital spending, PSE&G invested $900 million during the second quarter and is on plan to deliver its largest annual capital investment program at $3.5 billion. The program includes upgrades to our T&D facilities, Energy Strong II investments, last mile spend in the infrastructure advancement program and the continued rollout of the clean energy investments in energy efficiency and the Energy Cloud, including smart meters. Related to our pension, in February 2023, the BPU approved an accounting order authorizing PSE&G to modify its method for calculating the amortization of the net actuarial gain or loss component for ratemaking purposes. This change is effective for the calendar year ending December 31, 2023 and forward. For the full year 2023, PSE&G's forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings is unchanged at $1.500 billion to $1.525 billion. Moving on to Power & Other. Just as a reminder, Power & Other includes our nuclear fleet, gas operations, Long Island and parent activities, including interest expense. For the second quarter of 2023, PSEG Power & Other reported net income of $255 million or $0.51 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $10 million or $0.02 per share. This compares to second quarter 2022 net loss of $174 million or $0.35 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $15 million or $0.03 per share. We previously mentioned that during the first quarter of 2023, PSEG Power realized the majority of the approximate $4 per megawatt hour increase in the average price of our 2023 hedged output, which rose to approximately $31 per megawatt hour with higher winter pricing driving most of the increase. For the second quarter of 2023, gross margin rose by a total of $0.05 per share reflecting the absence of certain full requirement BGS load contracts that remain following the sale of the fossil business in 2022 and resulted in a lower cost to serve compared to the prior year. The increase in gross margin includes higher generation of $0.01 per share from fewer refueling outage days in the second quarter of 2023, offset by lower capacity revenues of $0.01 per share compared to the year ago quarter. O&M cost comparisons in the second quarter improved by $0.01 per share in 2023. Higher interest expense covering PSEG Power and parent financings were $0.02 per share unfavorable compared to the year ago quarter from higher variable rates on term loans and refinancing maturing debt at higher rates. Lower pension income from 2022 investment returns and OPEB credits from the lower amortization benefit mentioned earlier were $0.03 per share unfavorable versus the second quarter of 2022. And taxes and other were $0.02 per share unfavorable compared to the second quarter of 2022, reflecting a partial reversal of the effective tax rate benefit from the first quarter and lower investment income. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 7.7 terawatt hours during the second quarter and 16 terawatt hours for the year-to-date period in 2023, running at a capacity factor of 91.2% for the quarter and 95.8% for the year-to-date period. For the full year 2023, PSEG is forecasting generation output of 30 to 32 terawatt hours and has hedged approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $31 per megawatt hour. For 2024, the nuclear fleet is forecasted to produce 30 to 32 terawatt hours of baseload output and has hedged 75% to 80% of this generation at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. The forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for PSEG Power and other is unchanged at $200 million to $225 million for the full year. This forecast reflects the realization of a majority of the expected increase in the average 2023 annual hedge price in the first quarter of '23, as we previously discussed. Touching on some recent financing activity. As of June 30, 2023, PSEG had total available liquidity of $4 billion, including $500 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand. PSEG Power had net cash collateral postings of approximately $400 million at June 30, which is well below the levels experienced during 2022. Through the second quarter, we've repaid $2 billion of term loans, which were entered into during 2022 to support our collateral needs. In April, we entered into a $750 million 364-day variable rate term loan to support our liquidity needs. As of June 30, 2023, PSEG had $750 million outstanding of a 364-day variable rate term loan and PSEG Power had $1.25 billion outstanding of a variable rate term loan maturing March of 2025. As of the end of the quarter, PSEG had swapped $900 million of the power term loan from a variable rate to a fixed rate. And in May, PSE&G paid at maturity $500 million of secured medium-term notes. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG recently executed an agreement for a pension lift-out that will further increase the predictability of our financial results. This transaction covers approximately 2,000 retirees from PSEG Power & Other, and will transfer approximately $1 billion of related obligations and associated plan assets. This transaction will have no material impact on PSEG's non-GAAP operating earnings in 2023. Upon completion of the pension lift-out, we anticipate taking a onetime noncash settlement charge in the third quarter of 2023 related to the immediate recognition of unamortized net actuarial loss associated with a portion of the pension involved in the transaction. After providing for the effect of this transaction, our pension plans remain well funded. As Ralph mentioned, we are reaffirming PSEG's full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share, with PSE&G forecasted to contribute between $1.500 billion to $1.525 billion and PSEG Power & Other forecasted at $200 million to $225 million. The settlement charge related to the lift-out is not included in the full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for PSEG, PSE&G or PSEG Power & Other. That concludes our formal remarks. And operator, we are ready to begin the question-and-answer session.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And the first question comes from Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Dan, you talked about some uncertainties remaining with power and energy prices until we get that PTC guidance. Any update on conversations with treasury? There seems to be some delays, obviously, in other tax credit issues. So does that potentially push out like the PTC implementation. And does that change the calculus for power as you think about earnings hedging in any of the efficiency projects like refueling gas, et cetera.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Thanks, Shahriar. I don't think it changes much for us. I think maybe an analogy, 2023, the corporate minimum tax kicks in, and there's still guidance that we're looking for that as well. So I think from a PTC perspective, it's a tax credit -- it applies under the existing law. It states it begins 1/1/2024. So I've heard nothing from the standpoint of any delay in implementation. I think what we may have the potential for is, we may not know on the 1st of January exactly how they will define gross receipts. If I think about it, technically that tax return will get filed until into '25. I still would love to have the information now to best plan what we do. But I don't think there's any question, nothing that I've heard of anyway that would tell you that the start date would be anything other than 1/1/2024, but I have also not heard anything with respect to the date with which we will get further guidance on [indiscernible].
Shahriar Pourreza:
And then just on the '24 case expectations, I mean, you guys have highlighted the need to recover base spending that's not in much mechanisms to the tune of $0.30 earnings in '25. As we're getting closer to a filing, can you maybe just talk a little bit about how we should think about the revenue deficiency and the overall rate impact as we are seeing higher cost of capital? It's certainly a different inflationary environment in the last [indiscernible].
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I don't think I would think about it any differently than we talked about it before, right? The filing date for the rate case remains fourth quarter. I think the nature of the capital that we still have in front of us to roll in all remains the same as what we've talked about before. And so it will be a part of the filing that we'll make. And again, most of that are items that we've been through proceedings with the BPU, whether it's stipulated base or whether it's some of the clauses that we've actually set up a deferral mechanism for those roll-ins. So I don't think that we're in a different place from that approach and where we'll go. I think we're just kind of moving forward in getting that filing ready to be submitted in the fourth quarter.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Okay. Perfect, very clear-cut quarter. So that's all I had.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to get into the pension lift a little bit more. Just wondering if you could provide some more details such as is there any cash changing hands here? And how does the equity fixed income mix and the lifted out portion compare to the rest? And any thoughts on the equity fixed income mix going forward with the strength in equity markets?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Jeremy, I'm going to have Dan give you some details and I will discuss much on the PIC or pension investment committee plans. But I just wanted to kind of preface it by saying a couple of things. One, really proud of the work that the entire team here did at PSEG. I mean there's a lot of hard work and we talked about this pension lift-out not too long ago and got to the point where we executed on it in a very timely manner. So just really happy with the work that they did. Really happy about the way that we were able to protect our retirees and the folks that have done so much for us over the years in the way that we transacted here and fill a lot of details, and we'll get out to those folks. But -- very happy about that part of this process as well and certainly happy about the results that we were able to achieve, which Dan will go into a little more detail here, but it's more and more of the execution that we've talked about and trying to build that confidence for you all that you expected from us.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So Jeremy, to your more particular questions. So your first question about cash transacted. By its very nature of what the transaction is, is a liability for future pension payments that will move out of the company and that liability will be matched basically with cash that's going to go out with it. And so yes, there is a cash element to the transaction. However, you should think about that cash as coming out of the pension trust where those liabilities will be paid from. And so from more general corporate cash, don't think about any cash from that perspective solely from the trust. That said, and I think that is very a logical way to think about it, given your second question, which is where does that cash come from? And so we have investments across a bunch of different elements of spectrums of investments that we have made through different managers in the pension trust. And I think just the most natural way to think about it without putting too fine a point on it is, it's roughly 20% of the pension, and you could think of us as essentially taking about 20% of our investments across the board and moving them over. There's -- that won't be a perfect interpretation but pretty close to how to think about what it would look like on a go-forward basis from the remaining mix within the funds. So I think that's a simple way to think about it, but an appropriate way to think about it.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And then thinking about the pension lift-out here and thinking about kind of 5% to 7% growth CAGR. As previously communicated, is there any impact that we should think about here from this transaction?
Daniel Cregg:
No, you should not -- I think the 5% to 7% you should think about as being intact. Really, Jeremy, this was all about looking to the potential variability and results that we could see corporately because of the size of the pension. And that was the driver behind the transaction. Ralph made a hugely important point. We've said all along, the first thing that we needed to do with our diligence wasn't sure that this was going to be a move that would protect the benefit to our retirees. We did significant diligence there, I felt very comfortable there. And then secondarily, it needed to ultimately come through in a way that made sense for the company as well. And so that's exactly what we did. I think that managing that variability going forward is what we have talked about for a while and what we wanted to deliver on. And you could see some very, very de minimis effects as we step forward within the plan, but nothing that's going to move us out of that range at all.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Quick follow-up on the lift-out. What does that leave you in terms of a funding ratio post the transfer there?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So we finished the year at 87% and the year has been pretty good as we work through. So you can kind of think about that as increasing into the low 90s. And so we're in a good position from a funding perspective with what remains still within that kind of a range as we go forward from here.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. Perfect. And then on the Hope Creek fuel cycle extension, is that kicking off earlier here than you had anticipated previously? Or is that still on track toward the potential fall 2025 outage that you had mentioned previously in the Investor Day?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, 2 separate -- so good pickup, David, definitely on track for that date that we talked about in the Investment Day. But the work starts earlier, right, because it's just a lot of engineering work that needs to be done because some of those -- some of that fabrication starts years in advance. So the engineering is taking place and kicked off. We have a good idea, the costs are minimal as we had explained, and it's on target for that date that we had said. So again, more execution from the team down there.
David Arcaro:
Yes. Great. And then just one other minor question related to that, just as a follow-on. Are you -- how are you thinking about hydrogen and the prospects of potentially producing hydrogen at your nuclear facilities. Do you have involvement or any perspective on the discussions going on now in terms of framing up that policy structure and how additionality might be considered. Just wondering if that's front of mind for you.
Ralph LaRossa:
No, it's not top of mind because it's not a big driver for us one way or the other, but it's something we certainly want to do for a couple of reasons. I mean one, it's the right thing to do from an environmental standpoint, if we can help on the hydrogen development front. So that's one piece of it. Two, it's good for the region economically for New Jersey in the southern part of the state down there. If we could get some activities, additional construction activity, more jobs that southern area around our Salem plant has been challenged economically over the years. So another positive from that aspect. And then from the third, look, it is going to have some incremental financial impacts for us. I think additionality might make a lot of sense. But again, I think we're a small player in that, and we'll see where policymakers go with it.
Operator:
Next question is from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Just I want to go back to the pension lift-out real quick, Dan, congrats for getting it done in short order here. Just if memory serves me right, the portion of the pension, which is not covered by rates, or on the regulatory side was around 30%, and this lift-out is for 20%. So I'm just wondering if -- what are you doing with the 10% that is not covered by rates? Just any thoughts there.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, your order magnitude is right there, Durgesh. And essentially, the transaction and the go-forward pension plans would have been more complicated to do this kind of a transaction with active employees because you kind of got a moving target, right? Your service cost continues to go forward. And those kind of elements come into play. And so right now, just think about what sits outside of this lift-out in Power & other as just being status quo.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then just any thoughts on potential for a settlement in the GSMP filing. You've had a nice track record here. Energy efficiency was a very constructive outcome. So any color you can share there?
Ralph LaRossa:
Durgesh, I'll give you a couple of pieces. Yes, last night was the first public hearing that we had on the GSMP filing. 17 individuals spoke in favor of the filing, 1 against. So just in sheer numbers and conversation, it was a very positive outcome. 4 public officials spoke in favor of the project and the work that's been done so far by our folks out in the field. So really, really positive there. So I'm very optimistic that public sentiment is in the right direction. That should all lead to a continuation of our opportunity to settle. I would be surprised if we were in a situation that was anything about a settlement when we get to the end of this.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.
Carly Davenport:
Maybe just to start, as you think about the regulatory environment in New Jersey, a couple of new commissioners have joined the commission there. Anything that you would highlight in terms of changes or expectations around the regulatory landscape there following the personnel additions?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, nothing that I would expect to change dramatically. Look, we've got some real good conversations that are going on. From what I can tell and what folks have had going from conversations would be aligned with the things that new commissioners are talking about, focus on environmental issues, focus on affordability. I think what we're doing on the GSMP program is completely aligned from that standpoint, especially with our -- with the methane reductions that are involved there and the work that we're doing, getting those pipes ready for whatever they may carry down the road. The electrification work is certainly aligned with comments that those new commissioners have made in other settings before they were in the commission. So I think that's a real good sign. And from an affordability standpoint, boy, I got to tell you, the more we dig into this in preparation for our upcoming rate case, the prouder I am of what New Jersey has done over the years. I mean we -- no matter which way you look at it, the rate increases for the entire state -- I'm not just talking about us, but for the entire state have really stayed below inflation rates. And with all the work that we're doing to electrify homes, electrify transportation and clean up the grid, it has really proved out in New Jersey that we can -- if you do it right, you can do it in an affordable way, and the numbers are proving that out. So I think everything we're doing is aligned with what those 2 new commissioners would expect and things that they have said in prior positions that they've held.
Carly Davenport:
Great. That's helpful. And then just on collateral postings, it looks like that was down to about $400 million at quarter end. Any thoughts on how we should think about the cadence of incremental hedges rolling off from here?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, Carly, I think if you think about us continuing to do what we've historically done it's probably the right answer. And maybe just for a little bit of a different reason, I answered the question earlier on the PTC timing and -- that Shahriar had asked. And we are still waiting, but we've also thought through what some of those potential outcomes could be from the treasury regs and we're taking into account, admittedly a little bit in the dark what they could look like as we're continuing to move forward. So I think until we know something different, I'd say it's an educated thought process, but maybe not as educated as we like with the guidance that we have and thinking about what to do. But we are layering on some incremental hedges as we go through time. I think you've seen within the material today over the last quarter, you've seen a little bit more and a little bit of a higher price. So we're just trying to be smart about it in a situation where we don't know everything we'd like to know. But hopefully, we'll get some information soon from treasury.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I just wanted to follow up on a few things that have been said here. First off, coming back to that pension lift-out, I just wanted to run this by you guys. Just with the $1 billion implying return on asset flipping the liability around conversely. I mean it sounds like that might be like maybe upwards of a nickel drag here. Again, it's difficult from the outside to run the math. But does that sound like ballpark? Is it a drag? Is there sort of a net drag on a run rate '24 basis, if you will? Or are there other offsets here to think about? Just to close out on that one.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, Julien, listen, I don't think those numbers you just quoted would be aligned with the words de minimis. So I think that would be a little bit more than what we would certainly expect and not aligned with what our expectations are.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. I appreciate it. And then separately, look, did I just hear you say additionality might make sense on the nuclear side? I just wanted you to -- if you might clarify your thoughts around that.
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I could understand why people would make that argument. So it might make sense in some circles to do that, right? It certainly would make the most sense from a -- if you just want to generate hydrogen and create hydrogen from the nuclear plants, but I could understand why people make that argument from a tax credit standpoint, right? Because if you're getting tax credits for providing clean energy into the grid and then you convert that to hydrogen, then you get both tax credits. And I could understand that, right? Just the legitimate argument to make. So is that something we're taking a position on one way or the other, but I could certainly understand why some people would approach it that way. And I could understand why other people would approach it, "Hey, listen, we really have to kick start the hydrogen generation. And so therefore, we want to see that -- we want to see all those tax credits go to that angle. I think that's a -- it's a real policy call. It's -- some folks are going to need to make within Washington. So we'll see where it goes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. Excellent. And then just meanwhile, I mean, if not going down the hydrogen route, I mean, how do you think about parallel avenues of data centers or what have you, just to maximize your opportunity set around these nuclear plants. Obviously, we've seen some of your peers out there maximizing around some of these low carbon transactions, if you will.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So again, I think what Dan has been saying from the beginning, and I'm just going to reinforce here is, we really need to understand what treasury is going to seem to be the revenues. And once we understand that, then we can optimize that for our shareholders. Everything that I've been saying up to this point is just respectful of the conversation that's been taking place. It's not meant to take sides on anything. So even whether it's data centers and I -- we try to do what's right for New Jersey and New Jersey customers. And so, hey, does that make sense? Is it a data center here? Where is that data center? Are we wheel in power. There's all sorts of things that are going to go into our thought process as we go forward. And the number one is what Dan has been saying, let's see what rule of treasury say as to how revenue is going to be calculated.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Got it. But the point is you'll come up with a -- or you could come up with a new strategy pro forma for wherever the IRS lands on some of these regs. Can we get an update from you.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, 100%. And -- but again, give us a week to digest the rules when they come out, and then we'll have a plan ready. We're -- those conversations are not -- they're already -- we're already looking at things inside. We'll figure it out.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. You're already working on things pro forma here with folks?
Ralph LaRossa:
Always. That's why we're able to move as fast than we did on pension. Yes.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
So just -- almost all my questions have been answered. But just on -- I apologize for missing this. What is the expected GAAP impact of the lift-out?
Carlotta Chan:
GAAP. GAAP.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So Paul, what we said is both -- as we look at 2023, de minimis impact, not even worth kind of including within any models, very, very small impact anticipated. And then going forward, I'd say the same, right? There's a very modest positive arbitrage. But by the same token, what we're -- what we've also talked about here is we will see a onetime charge come through from the standpoint of the unrecognized element. And so the absence of that going forward does provide somewhat of an offset. So I would not think about it as having much of an impact, '23 or going forward. So the main tracker that we talk about is mitigating the volatility.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. But the charge itself is not going to be big either, is what you're saying?
Daniel Cregg:
No, that 1 charge -- so if you take a look at our year-end 2022, that unamortized amount was about $2 billion. So we've disclosed that we would see something in the low 200s after tax from the standpoint that was in the release of the amortization of that charge. So think about the pension as a whole, having that unamortized balance. And if this is about a 20% impact you're seeing about that coming through on the onetime charge.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho Securities.
Anthony Crowdell:
You may have addressed this in Durgesh's question, so I apologize. But if we think about from year-end to now, you had the approval from the BPU on the pension smoothing and now the lift-out. How much of your pension volatility have you reduced or removed from the end of 2022?
Daniel Cregg:
A little less than half, somewhere between 40% and 50%.
Anthony Crowdell:
Okay. And then I appreciate you did go through that this is for the PEG Power employees unregulated. And in the fourth quarter, you're going to file the general rate case where I believe you're going to request a pension tracker. If the company is unsuccessful or the regulators do not approve the pension tracker, I mean, is this an option that you would look deeper into for the regulated employees? Or just structurally, it just makes -- it's very hard to do it for existing employees, this type of lift-out?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Anthony. So we will absolutely have a conversation with the BPU about a mechanism to address pensions and the volatility around that. So -- they worked with us on the last mechanism. They worked with other companies. So we'll be in there having a conversation about it. It's good for ratepayers as well as also it create -- it reduces their volatility as well over a longer period of time as you are going from rate. So it makes sense for everyone. That said, we always will continue to take a look at things like we just executed on. But I would tell you that it's really tough to figure out for active employees what the right formula is for all the reasons that Dan mentioned, I think it was to Durgesh earlier, how long is somebody going to work? What's going to be their earnings trajectory and so on and so forth. So I think those pieces of the puzzle make it tougher when you have a group of employees like we just went through, it was a lot easier to have that conversation. And again, got us in a really good place.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi.
Ryan Levine:
Given the range of gross receipt treatment outcomes from treasury, what's the range of '24 hedges that you'd be considering adding on to your nuclear plate?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I think, Ryan, it's a tough question to answer, given that we don't have what we need to have from treasury. We have been stepping into hedges as we've approached the year fairly similar to what we've done in the past to be as prepared to mitigate the market volatility as we can. And so I think the question is going to be best answered when we do have that guidance and as we continue to go through the rest of the year.
Ryan Levine:
Just a follow-up on that. I mean when I look back on where you were last year at this time from a hedge standpoint and you were meaningfully more hedged on a 1-year forward basis than you are today. Given that comment, what's driving the lower hedge profile?
Daniel Cregg:
Well -- and Ryan, the other thing I would add to that is we've said in the past that we've tended to work our way through a 3-year period within a range kind of a band of hedges across those 3 years. And so there are periods of time where we will try to take a look at what the market looks like within that range to take advantage of market opportunities. And so if you just think about where we've been historically from a price point perspective and where we are now, I think the opportunities led us to be a little bit higher within that band before and a little bit lower within that band compared to last year right now.
Ralph LaRossa:
Which at the end of the day is exactly the way Dan has managed this for years, and the team has managed it for years and they've looked for those opportunities. So absent really clear guidance from treasury, we're doing what we've done in the past.
Ryan Levine:
Interesting topics. How does the recently approved second energy efficiency framework impact the company's approach to energy efficiency into the next filing later this year?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. I don't think it impacted what's going to happen in the next filing. What really impact -- will impact what's going to happen in the next filing is what was just released by the Board of Public Utilities, which is their triennial report or direction that was an order that came out on energy efficiency. And we're still studying that, but that has a lot of upside for us there that we think will really encourage additional energy efficiency investments from companies like ours. So more to come on that, but that I would encourage you to take a hard look at that order because I think it really did provide a good road map for all the utilities in New Jersey to follow and provide some opportunity for us.
Carlotta Chan:
Rob, we'll take 1 last call and then we'll turn it back to Ralph for closing comments.
Operator:
Thank you. That last call will come from Paul Freeman with Ladenburg Thalmann.
Unidentified Analyst:
Quick question on generation gross margin year-to-date and how we should think about generation gross margin for your following your hedges?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. I think as you take a look year-to-date, one of the things we talked about upfront was the hedge price we saw most of that uplift within the first quarter. So we got more of the benefit from the timing of the hedges that were put on during the winter period. I think what you're more likely to see as you go through the balance of the year is a little bit of a change from the standpoint of looking back at '22 when we kind of rolled off our final load-serving contracts compared to where we are now without them is that we have a little bit higher cost to serve last year compared to what we're seeing this year because of those contracts. And so most of the top-line benefit has been recognized year-over-year if you take a look at where the hedge prices are, but the cost to serve will benefit as we go through the balance of the year, Paul.
Unidentified Analyst:
So if I look at next year, you would expect the gross margin to be roughly comparable in terms of how it's calculated or the differential to the hedge price as it is this year?
Daniel Cregg:
No, we'll give you guidance next year for next year's results as we head in there. But I think next year, you're also going to have a situation where you'll have PTCs in place that will change things. So it's a more complicated structure that we can talk through as we go forward and to give next year's guidance.
Operator:
I would now like to turn the floor back over to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you. So I would just leave everyone with this. For the -- as we kind of put this new management team in place and talked about things, we said we weren't going to change much. We were going to continue our strategy. But I think this quarter kind of reinforced a lot of things that we've been telling you over the first 6 months here. Alignment with public policy, especially in the state of New Jersey is really important and the great work from the workforce that we have and our alignment with them on a regular basis. And the reason for that is that we were able to execute the way we did. 3 big wins, I'd say this quarter, our exit from offshore wind done in a way that really, I would say, we're very, very proud of. We entered. We took a hard look at that opportunity, and we exited in a way that both -- we were able to keep our heads up financially, policy-wise and with our -- with the labor workforce in the state of New Jersey as we did that. Second, we stayed aligned with public policy on our energy efficiency filing and took a good step forward. But as a result of that, we'll really be able to take some advantage of some new orders that came out from the Board that we just talked about. So again, really aligned with policy and a workforce that can deliver on that. Third piece was what we just talked about on the pension execution and the work that was done there. And again, I just want to reinforce how happy we are that we were able to accomplish all the things that we set out to accomplish through some great, great teamwork from a number of folks here on our team. And then I don't want to lose sight of the heat storm that we just had here in New Jersey. And the work that was done, again, by -- if I had a number of folks that have stepped up time and time again, whether it's our appliance service technicians out fixing air conditioners that have gone bad to our overhead line workers, making sure that the pole-top transformers are back in service and the underground folks making sure the networks here in Newark and other cities are up and running and the call takers answering any questions customers might have as far as timing of restoration for the few that did go out of power. It was just great work and really was seamless. And I -- it did identify some additional opportunities for us in that last mile, which we're going to learn from and continue to put into our plans, but I can't say enough about execution on that -- on the heat storm, but execution across the board on all the things that we've accomplished in the last quarter. So I appreciate you all calling in, listening and we'll continue to build your confidence as we move forward through the remainder of '23. Thanks, and talk to you next quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob, and will be your event operator [ph] today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded today, May 2, 2023, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning. And welcome to PSEG's first quarter 2023 earnings presentation. On today’s call are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO; as well as Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release attachments and slides for today's discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. PSEG's earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings which differ from net income or loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings materials. Following Ralph’s and Dan's prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30-minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph LaRossa.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning to everyone and thanks for joining us to review PSEG’s first quarter results. As indicated in our release, PSEG reported first quarter 2023 net income of $1,287 billion or $2.58 a share compared to a net loss of $2 million or less than $0.01 a share for the first quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter were $695 million or a $1.39 per share compared to $672 million or a $1.33 per share for the first quarter of 2022. The non-GAAP results for first quarter 2023 and 2022 exclude items shown in Attachment 7 and 8 provided in the release. PSEG delivered solid operating and financial performance to begin the year and we are on track to achieve our full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share. We are executing our plan to grow PSEG, while also increasing its predictability, which we outlined in our March 10 Investor Conference. In addition to introducing PSEG'S ten-year capital spending forecast during the conference, we announced the decision to retain our five-unit nuclear generating fleet and exit offshore wind generation. The utility invested approximately $800 million during the first quarter of 2023, consistent with its full year capital plan of $3.5 billion. These investments will be directed to modernizing T&D infrastructure, clean energy future programs, and the last mile projects in the Infrastructure Advancement Program that support New Jersey's policies for energy transition. The 2023 capital spending program also represents PSE&G’s largest investment plan to date and drives PSE&G’s long-term growth outlook for non-GAAP operating earnings of 5% to 7% over the five-year period through 2027. PSE&G completed the second phase of its Gas System Modernization Program in February. And in order to continue these critical infrastructure investments proposed a third phase with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities or the BPU to invest $2.5 billion over a three-year period. This effort will reduce methane leaks and carbon emissions as we work to expand clean energy options for our customers. Also, in February, the BPU approved an accounting order allowing PSE&G to modify its methodology for amortizing a component of pension expense for rate making purposes. This is consistent with our request to reduce the impact of pension accounting on our reported results. Additionally during the first quarter, PSEG achieved several milestone metrics in customer satisfaction and nuclear operations, ratifying new labor agreements with all of our New Jersey unions and implemented back to back gas supply cost reductions that helped on the customer affordability front. On the customer satisfaction measures, PSE&G achieved top quartile performance of overall among large utilities in the east in J.D. Power’s first quarter 2023 residential electric and gas studies. This follows our full year 2022 J.D. Power recognition of ranking number one in customer satisfaction with both residential electric and gas service among large utilities in the east. On the customer affordability front PSE&G implemented two basic gas supply service commodity charge reductions during the 2023 heating season, resulting in a total bill reduction of approximately 14% per month for a typical residential gas customer. Our nuclear fleet demonstrated its strong performance in the first quarter, operated at 100% capacity factor and maintained a strong ranking on the Institute for Nuclear Power Operations Performance Indicator Index. We have also authorized the funding required to transition our 100% owned Hope Creek unit from an 18-month to a 24-month fuel cycle starting in 2025 and are monitoring NRC approval of a fuel change that would enable the transition of our co-owned Salem units to a 24-month fuel cycle in the future. We also continued to evaluate power upgrade options for our Salem units to increase their generation capacity in the back half of this decade. Salem unit two has completed a scheduled fueling outage and was synchronized to the regional power grid last Friday. Turning to our union contracts, following constructive discussions, PSEG recently reached new four-year labor agreements with all of our unions representing employees in New Jersey. This provides all parties with visibility and predictability on compensation and benefits into 2027. During 2022, PSEG also hired over 1,000 new employees and maintained and created thousands of essential good paying jobs for the New Jersey economy, like PSE&G’s award-winning Clean Energy Jobs Training Program, which was focused on employment opportunities for underserved communities. Turning to Governor Murphy's three executive orders issued in February to combat climate change and power the next New Jersey, we are developing proposals to help support and advance the state's updated and expanded energy policy goals, which we also believe can represent a $3 billion to $7 billion incremental investment opportunity for PSE&G through 2032. BPU is expected to be the primary implementation agency for all three executive orders over the next 12 to 18 months. We anticipate that the BPU will update their energy master plan with specific short- and long-term proposals to achieve the state's accelerated target of 100% of electricity sold in the state coming from carbon free resources by 2035. [Indiscernible] a strategic roadmap with strategies to achieve the goals of having 400,000 homes, 20,000 commercial properties, and an additional 10% of all low to moderate income properties electrification ready by 2030. And convene a stakeholder process for the future of natural gas utilities aimed at reducing emissions all consistent with the state goals, while also considering impacts on costs and jobs. On the ESG front, Forbes recently added PSEG to its 2023 list of America's Best Employers for Diversity. In addition, PSEG continues to work towards developing and submitting for validation our emissions targets for Scope 1, 2, and 3 to the UN-backed Science Based Target initiative this fall. We are off to a solid start in 2023. We are on track with PSEG’s full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share and with PSE&G's $3.5 billion plan capital spend for 2023. The five-year capital spending program over 2023 to 2027, of $15.05 billion to $18 billion, drives our 6% to 7.5% of compound annual growth rate in rate base over that same five-year period. These utility investments and the cash generation from our nuclear fleet position us to continue supporting growth in our common dividend, which we recently raised by $0.12 to the indicative annual rate of $2.28 per share. It enables funding our capital investment program through 2027 without the need to issue new equity or sell parts of our company in order to grow. The month of May marked the 120th anniversary of public service. We thank our 12,000 dedicated employees and the ones before us for carrying forward the company's proud legacy of safe and reliable service. As we look to the next 120 years, I see a long runway of opportunity in the energy transition. We are seeing trends like the new business request trickle in for behind the charger infrastructure work. Policy makers pushing ahead on the next phase of offshore wind transmission and future investment opportunities in New Jersey's accelerated and expanded clean energy policy goals. In fact, just last week, the BPU, in keeping with their stated intentions, opened the next solicitation window for offshore wind transmission solutions in 2024. The board staff and PJM recommended the PSEG Deans 500kV substation as the preferred interconnection point to facilitate the additional injection of 3,500 megawatts of power, part of New Jersey's goal of adding 11,000 megawatts of offshore wind resources. We fully intend to continue pursuing regulated offshore wind transmission investment opportunities both at our utility and separately at PSEG Power and other. This ongoing investment in the New Jersey economy and its energy infrastructure improves the reliability of our networks, as well as the predictability of the business, which we hope our stakeholders find to be a compelling value proposition. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on the operating results, and we'll be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning everybody and thank you, Ralph. As Ralph mentioned for the first quarter of 2023, PSEG reported net income of $1,287 million or $2.58 per share compared to a net loss of $2 million or less than a penny per share for the first quarter of 2022. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2023 was $695 million or $1.39 per share compared to $672 million or $1.33 per share for the first quarter of 2022. We have provided you with information on Slide 9 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings per share by business for the first quarter of 2023, and Slide 10 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in the non-GAAP operating earnings per share by major business. Starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported first quarter 2023 net income of $487 million or $0.98 per share compared to $509 million or $1.02 per share in the first quarter of 2022. First quarter of 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings were $492 million or $0.99 per share compared with $509 million or $1 per share in the first quarter of 2022. The main drivers for the quarter were the rate base additions from transmission and our Gas System Modernization Investment Programs, which were offset by the lower pension credits and the timing of taxes. Compared to the first quarter of 2022 transmission was a penny per share higher. Gas margin was a penny per share higher driven by $0.03 per share, a favorable GSMP investment return that was partly offset by a penny per share of lower non-SIP demand due to the warm weather and other margin items. Electric margin was flat compared to the first quarter of 2022. Also reflecting the absence of favorable ship true-up in the year earlier quarter partly offset by growth in the number of customers. Other Electric and Gas margin added a penny per share reflecting both the earnings impact of the cap or the tax adjustment credit and appliance service results. Lower distribution O&M expense added $0.03 per share compared to the first quarter of 2022, primarily reflecting reduced weather related corrective maintenance and gas maintenance costs. Both depreciation and interest expense increased by one penny per share compared to the first quarter of 2022, reflecting continued growth in investment. Lower pension credits reflecting 2022s investment returns resulted in the 4 penny per share unfavorable comparison to the year earlier quarter. The impact of PSEGs $500 million share repurchase program completed in May 2022 had a penny per share benefit in the first quarter of 2023. Lastly, the timing of an effective tax rate adjustment, another flow through taxes had a net unfavorable impact of $0.03 per share compared to the first quarter of 2022. But will reverse over the remainder of the year driven by the use of an annual effective tax rate. The ship mechanism in effect since 2021, limits the impact of weather and other sales variances positive or negative on electric and gas margins, while enabling PSE&G to promote the widespread adoption of its energy efficiency programs. Winter weather in the first quarter of 2023 was the warmest first quarter in PSE&G's records, measured by heating degree days the first quarter of 2023 was 23% warmer than the first quarter of 2022 and 23% warmer than normal. The CIP mechanism allowed us to recover the impact of this extreme weather on sales. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers, the driver of margin under the CIP mechanism continues to be positive and we're each up 1% during the trailing 12-month period. PSE&G invested $800 million during the first quarter and is on track to execute its plan 2023 capital investment program of $3.5 billion; that includes infrastructure upgrades to its transmission and distribution facilities, Energy Strong two investments, Last Mile spend in the infrastructure advancement program and the continued rollout of the clean energy future investments in energy efficiency and the energy in cloud including smart meters. For the full year 2023 PSE&G's forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings is unchanged at $1,500 million to $1,525 million. Moving on to PSEG Power & Other, which includes our nuclear fleet, gas operations, Long Island and parent activities including interest expense. For the first quarter of 2023 Power & Other reported net income of $800 million or $1.60 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $203 million or $0.40 per share, this compares to first quarter 2022 net loss of $511 million or $1.02 per share, and non-GAAP operating earnings of $163 million or $0.32 per share. We previously mentioned that PSEG Power would benefit from an approximate $4 per megawatt-hour increase in the average price of a 2023 hedged output, which rose to approximately $31 per megawatt-hour. The majority of this annual price improvement was realized during the first three months of the year with higher winter pricing driving most of the increase, and as a result gross margin for the quarter rose by a total of $0.10 per share driven primarily by $0.17 per share increase from recontracting 8.4 terawatt-hours generation and market impacts from the step up in power prices. The gross margin increase also includes lower capacity revenues of $0.02 per share and lower gas operations of $0.05 per share reflecting lower capacity and natural gas prices during the first quarter of 2022. First quarter cost comparisons improved by a penny per share in 2023 reflecting lower nuclear costs and reduced spend on offshore wind activity versus 2022. Higher interest expense covering PSEG Power and parent financings were $0.04 per share unfavorable compared to the year ago quarter from refinancing, maturing debt and higher rates. Lower pension credits from 2022, investment returns were $0.03 per share unfavorable versus the first quarter of 2022. Taxes and other were $0.04 per share favorable compared to the first quarter of 2022, reflecting the use of a lower effective tax rate in the quarter that will reverse over the balance of 2023 partly offset by lower investment income. On the operating side, the nuclear fleet produced approximately 8.4 terawatt-hours during the first quarter of 2023 similar to the first quarter of 2022, and ran at capacity factor of 100%. For the full year of 2023 PSEGs forecasting generation output of 30 to 32 terawatt-hour and its hedge approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $31 per megawatt-hour. For 2024, PSEG is again forecasting nuclear baseload output 30 to 32 terawatt-hour and it said 75% to 80% of this output at an effective price of $37 per megawatt-hour. A forecast non-GAAP operating earnings for PSEG Power & Others unchanged at $200 million to $225 million for the full year. This forecast reflects the realization of a majority of the expected increase in the average 2023 annual hedged price in the first quarter of the year with minimal incremental pricing improvement compared to the prior year expected over the balance of 2023. Moving on to recent financing activity. As of March 31, 2023 PEEG had available credit capacity of $3.9 billion including $1 billion at PSE&G. In addition, PSEG had total cash and cash equivalents on hand of approximately $1.2 billion. PEEG Power had net cash collateral postings of $700 million at March 31st, primarily related to out of the money hedge positions resulting from higher energy prices. As these historical lower price trades continue to settle through 2023 and into 2024, collateral is returned as PSEG Power satisfies its obligations under those contracts. Thus far in 2023 collateral postings have been below the high levels experience during 2022 and remained subject to market moves Early in the first quarter we prepaid $750 million of the $1.5 billion, 364-day variable rate term-loan due in April. Subsequent to the end of the quarter remaining $750 million of the April 2023 term-loan matured and was replaced by a new $750 million, 364-day variable rate term-loan maturing in April 2024. As of March 31, 2023, PSEG had outstanding a total of $1.25 billion of 364-day variable rate term loans expiring April and May of 2023 to support PSEG Power's, collateral needs and PSEG Power had outstanding $1.25 billion variable rate term loan expiring March 2025. In total $1.05 billion of Power & Others' variable rate debt has been swapped from variable rate to fixed as of March 31, 2023 with an additional $175 million swapped in April. Also in March PSE&G issued a total of $900 million of green bonds consisting of $500 million of secured medium term notes due 2033 and $400 million of secured medium term notes due 2053. As Ralph mentioned we are reaffirming PSEGs 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.40 to $3.50 per share with regulated operations at PSE&G forecasted to contribute $1.5 billion to $1.525 billion. And PSEG Power & Other forecasted at $200 million to $225 million, noting that PSEG Power & Other has realized the majority of the expected annual price increase and re-contracting during the first quarter 2022. That concludes our formal remarks. And operator we are ready to begin the question-and-answer session.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. And our first question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your questions.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey guys. Good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Good morning. So first question is on, on just looking at maybe opportunities to efficiently finance, I know obviously interest rate risk has been a headwind recently, but it's embedded in plan. You don't need equity, but do you feel like you have some opportunities for maybe financing efficiencies on the debt side especially as we kind of see a very attractive cash pay convert market unfolding, five-year terms, low 3% costs. And could that sort of benefit be accretive to that 5 to 7 you guys reiterate today, especially since you do embed a higher interest rate cost step up?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Sure. Thanks for that and, I will give it to Dan in a second here. I – look we're never going to walk away from an opportunity to save a few dollars, which is what you're referring to there, and so we wouldn't do that. I also think there is a fine line there that you have to watch from a being 2Q to being folks thinking that you're actually issuing equity. So I guess every one of those deals are different and we look at it and how it's structured, but we don't need to issue equity and I just want to be certain that anything that we did to look at that, would not be done in that light. So Dan, you want to add?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think that's the right theme, Shar. We obviously going to consider all options and we do on a regular basis when we try to look at how we finance the business. But I think it probably is a better fit for somebody who has an equity need coming up, but obviously we would look at it the same way that we would look at anything else to make sure we're financing efficiently.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect. That was very clear. And then just lastly on the strategic side, it's obviously maybe a small upside but do you have any sort of efficient ways to allocate proceeds for the lease sales if those occur? I mean, there's been some activity on that front across the offshore wind players. So I wonder if you – if you think it could be more accretive to hold on to some of those leases for a more competitive process and maybe more stable capital market environment there. Thanks.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I don't know that you can perfectly time the market. I do know that acreage that we do have is off the coast of Maryland. Maryland just upsized, they are targeted offshore wind; New Jersey has done the same. Those are, I think, probably the two markets that those acres would serve the best. And so I think you'd look at it from an operating perspective and from a market perspective I should say as to when you were going to execute on that sale. And when they come in, I think it’s just going to be part of general corporate funds. Probably the most, the quickest and most efficient way to use those funds would be a pay down of some debt and then just redeploying capital as we've seen needed. It's not like we're going to, I guess embedded within Ralph's comments we're not selling parts of the business in addition to not issuing equity for what we need to do. And so it's not like that's going to be required from a timing perspective to do what we need to do to fund the capital plan. I think that's all, all sound and I think it's just going to go back and be part of the overall financing plan.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Fantastic guys. Kudos on today. We'll see you soon.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Shar.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Shar. Happy doing.
Operator:
Next question is from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey. Good morning Dan. Thanks for giving me time here. Just – Dan, quick clarification on the proceeds from the lease that – that would be all incremental to the current CapEx plan, right? I just want to be clear on that front?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And look we shouldn't overplay the magnitude of what that's going to look like. It's going to be great, but it's not going to be life-changing for the company as we go forward. It is a transaction that will be around the edges and we'll do it when it makes the most sense to make it the most efficient.
Durgesh Chopra:
Makes sense. Okay. I didn't hear you mention the lift out on the pension on the call. Sorry if I missed it. Can you just talk to that, what are the latest developments there and is that still sort of something you're considering?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think, Durgesh, you didn't really hear anything because there really isn't nothing new to report which is not to imply nothing's going on. Diligence does continue, it's something that we're continuing to explore just with the same purpose to dampen the volatility that we would've within the pension. And I think things are continuing productively, but there's nothing new to report. But don't take the absence as if it's off the table, it remains something we're pursuing.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. That's very clear. And then just one last one for me, can you comment on how did the quarter shake out versus your expectations and how does that position you for 2023 with respect to your guidance range?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Durgesh, it shook out exactly the way we expected it to. So we're, that's why we're so certain about reaffirming guidance. I think what you also heard in a bunch of the answers that Dan just gave you was flexibility that we have. We're not – none of the things that you're talking about are opportunities we have require us to thread a needle to execute the plan that we have in front of us. And that confidence I hope comes across in both the way that we're answering and with the optionalities that we have.
Durgesh Chopra:
It does. Well done guys. Thanks so much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Durgesh.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team. Thank you guys for the time. Just following-up on hedging and hedging strategy here post IRA, it seems like there's been a pretty nice step up here at hedge prices versus the fourth quarter deck, $37 a megawatt-hour versus $32. Can you talk about that? What drove the significantly higher price? Is there a change in how commercial activities are being characterized or is that actually a real step up in economic value that you're showing there? I just want to make sure we're all clear about that.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. And I'll give it to Dan to give you because he's got that trading operation. But I just do want to reinforce that a lot. There's still some uncertainty out there in the out years until we get the rules back from treasury. So what we are describing there though is what we expect to happen. And Dan you could fill some more details in there.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Julien, I would – what you're describing is not some kind of dramatic shift in what we're doing. We've always worked within a range across a ratable period. There are bounds within that range. It's not a perfectly scientific range, so you could see some movement within a fairly bounded range for what we do. The quarter started with some higher prices, ended with an uptick and in the middle had a drop off. And so I think that we did a nice job of capturing some decent pricing. The other thing I would say though that you don't want to lose sight of is that, not everything is robotically across the year as well. So you could have some on peak, some off peak hedges come on. You could have some winter hedges, some seasonal hedges, some calendar hedges come on and that can make a little bit of a difference as you go through quarter-to-quarter. It's a little bit of a granular look. So to your question, I do think that we did a nice job in moving forward and capturing some value, but I think some of the other things that I described also could come into play in any quarter, frankly. I say that more generically as we go quarter-to-quarter and you look at it granularly through time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And just to clarify that commentary. So basically this is more about hedging on peak resolve peak than it is anything tied to IRA or otherwise. And again you did a nice job commercially hedging, but you wouldn't necessarily say that this is anything in terms of a change methodology importantly?
Ralph LaRossa:
You got that last part is the most important point that that we said that we are kind of continuing on our path, similar methodologies to what we've done in the past. Pending the real update that is when we'll get that from treasury and understand it. My only comment is you can't take too much of a fine point because there are some nuances with the timing of hedges whether they're on off peak and seasonal versus counter hedges and things of that nature. But on balance definitely a good quarter from a value perspective as we step through time.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And then super quick if I can. You alluded to these plans that you're developing proposals for electrification. When do you expect that to come? I know we've talked about this a bit in the past, just what's the timeline there and then especially any thoughts about a parallel higher load forecast with that and the timeline there?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Julien, I think you're going to – all of that's going to play out over the next 12 to 18 months on multiple fronts. First we have to get agreement on our load forecast as you said. I continue to believe that the current load forecast that we see from PJM is light. Like isn't that a big impact to us again because we are decoupled, which we've seen the benefit of this year. But I think that it will drive additional investments for us both potentially at the transmission level and at the distribution level depending upon what – where those forecasts levelize off that. There is a gap between our internal forecast and what PJM has. We provide that information, but PJM is the ultimate transmission authority from a planning standpoint, so we build our system out to that. I think there are though as we get alignment on rates of EV turnover in the state of New Jersey as we get alignment on the electrification plans of the Governor. And then as we get more alignment on this clean energy transition as a whole and specifically as in regards to the offshore wind transmission, I think we'll be able to give you a little more guidance on that over that next 12 to 18 months.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Good luck guys. See you soon.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Julien.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Julien.
Operator:
The next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your questions.
Travis Miller:
Good morning everyone. Thank you.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey Travis.
Dan Cregg:
Hey Travis.
Travis Miller:
I know it's really early in the process, but wonder if you could characterize the discussion and issues that might come up on the GSMP III filing so far?
Ralph LaRossa:
Sure, Travis. I think you've said the key though, which is it's still early in the process right now, but we still don't have any red flags as far as what we've seen in the conversations that we've had with the regulators. So we're confident at the end of the day that we'll get a similar run rate to what we have currently with our GSMP II filing. And I think – I think you've heard and seen in all the comments made from the administration, specifically the governor's office that there's no intent to stop any gas installations. There's no intent at this point to stop stoves from being tied into gas. So it's a little bit different environment that we have and I think that the lack of attention that it has had is also a very good indicator for all of us is to where policy will be heading in the state.
Travis Miller:
So you're not taking anybody's stoves away?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, I mean there's no plan on that. And I look at; we got to be careful on all of this because that process is confidential, right? So we – I think you can see from the newspaper articles and so on that there's really no challenge to us on the replacement of our facilities.
Travis Miller:
Yes. Just joking on that one, and perhaps I should have asked this first, but how early is it in the process? What kind of timeline are you thinking about?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. We usually talk about those things in the 12-month plus timeline for filing like that. And I think we're only a couple months into it yet, so they just – they just named a presiding officer at the BPU for that – for this filing. And so I think we're 12 months plus away for early decision.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
The next questions from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Please proceed with your questions.
Andrew Weisel:
Hi, good morning everyone.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi Andrew.
Andrew Weisel:
First question on the new four-year labor agreements, first of all I'm glad you had more success than the Hollywood writers did. But my question is given the inflationary pressures, how do the cost structures compare to prior deals and how will that affect customer bills?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Andrew, a couple things there. Let me start backwards with the customer bills, I think there's been a few reports out that I just would encourage. If I take a look at New Jersey from 2021 to 2022 was I think the fourth lowest state in the U.S. as far as residential electric rate increases. So the process here is working, it's not just what we do in the T&D business, but it's also the way they procure power. And we've talked about that a bunch of times. So kudos to the BPU on that and the process that's been in place, and so we – because of that rolling nature, I – any kind of increase that we would have is going to be minimal to start with. That said labor is a large component of our O&M and the largest component of our own O&M expenses within the utility. So it will be a piece that goes into our rate case filing that we have. But the 4% increase that we were able to negotiate, three in the out years is just – it's just a good indication of the relationship that we have. The strong relationship that we have with our unions – all of our unions in the state, and the fact that in prior years when we had a 3% labor increase and inflation was in at 1% to 2%, the unions recognize that and the unions recognize now when inflation is higher than the 3% to 4%. They had some benefit in prior years. So I think the outcome is pretty flat and it's flat from a growth standpoint for our folks because the good working relationships that we have and the way it plays out. At the end of the day, I don't think this will have a major impact on the rates again because of a number of different factors. So that's exactly what we expected and should give you some confidence and others on a call as to our own end projections in the out years because it is the biggest component of our expenses.
Andrew Weisel:
Great. That's very helpful, and yes, I know those negotiations are never easy; so congrats. Next question is on electric vehicles. Can you talk a little bit about how soon you expect to see the impact in terms of both infrastructure investment and higher residential demand? And then just remind me under the CIP decoupling mechanism. Would you benefit with higher revenues as EVs pick-up? Or would that be kind of more of an affordability story?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So a whole bunch in there. First of all as far as timing goes, we are starting to see some new business requests come in. We see it in some of the Garden State Parkway, rest stops we're seeing it in the New Jersey Turnpike rest stops. We're seeing in some of the large commercial organizations that were just granted approval by the BPU that will installed the charging infrastructure. So those – that activity has started, and we're going to keep an eye on that and see about what it – what kind of capital is required for each one of those installations on a standalone basis that'll help us in projections going forward, but it's just a start. As far as load increases, and individual residences, we'll know more about that as we deploy AMI. We have our AMI cross rollout going very well in New Jersey, and we'll have a lot more details that we can talk about, I would say 12 months from now as far as when we start to see folks connected their EVs that we had an engineer that – that had worked here, just retired after about 60 years. And he said that he sees this transition as the transition when we went to Central Air Conditioners back in the 1950s. So it'll happen – it'll happen sporadically and then it'll take-off just like – like that, that deployment took place. So we are – we will have more to say about it as we go forward, but I'm just really excited about the fact that we're starting to see it take place already and these first set of plans getting out from the BPU last week.
Dan Cregg:
And on the affordability side of things, Andrew, too, I think that there will be infrastructure improvements that will need to be made that last mile of our system is pretty dated and there is a lot of work that'll need to be done, but I think, part of what you're going to see is a shift where a piece of the wallet that used to end up at the gas station is going to end up on the electric bill. So, that helps things as well.
Ralph LaRossa:
And that's only for the commodity because again, as you mentioned from the SIP, we're not going to collect anymore for the pipes or the wires other than for what we deploy additional capital on.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock. Please proceed with your questions.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
You mentioned the selection of the offshore wind injection point, and I was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more what that actually might mean for you. If you could just elaborate a little bit more on that, I guess.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, sure, Paul. So it wasn't a selection, it was a recommendation by the BPU to PJM to look at our Deans Sub Switching Station as the entry point. So what that could – what it means for us certainly is that if PJM does agree with the Board of Public Utilities and does select that, any of the work inside the fence will be the responsibility of PSE&G the complete inside the fence. The work outside the fence will still follow under that state agreement approach and be a competitive solicitation. However, what I am encouraged by is the fact that Deans is in our service territory. We know our service territory. And we should be very knowledgeable about the routes to get from the shore to that Dean's substation. And I wouldn't go beyond that at this point, but I'm happy to see that that Deans was selected. I also would tell you that I'm very happy about the work that we've done on our transmission system because the indication that that gives us is that our transmission system is robust enough to take that injection of offshore wind generation into it. So, we've done a nice – our engineering team has done a really nice job of readying the system for what might come and here it is.
Paul Patterson:
Is there any potential, I guess, when we talk about inside defense, do you have any number about how much that might be?
Ralph LaRossa:
No. Well, I wouldn't know. We won't know until we actually see the size and magnitude of what comes in there versus down to the area JCP&L just is rebuilding and maybe even down in the Atlantic City Electric territory. So, a lot of flows to be figured out by PJM between now and then.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. That’s something to watch, I guess. Then with respect to the going from an 18-month fuel cycle to a 24-month fuel cycle, can you tell us what the – what the potential impact of that might be, I guess, starting in 2025?
Ralph LaRossa:
Well, from a capital expenditure standpoint, I think, we told you it’s going to be around $30 million or so. It's about that same amount. So it's a very small number. What the impact will be is we'll be some savings in O&M that we'll have as a result of that. And we're also obviously going to get additional megawatts. We have not – I don't think we've published that anywhere yet. So I’d just stay away from disclosing any of that information until we get the engineering completed, which is what that $30 million. There is really not a lot of work to do to actually ready a nuclear plant for this. What really has to be done is the engineering on the fuel rods and how they are going to interact with each other. And as that's completed, then we're going to tell what additional power we're going to get out of the unit.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please proceed your questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Hi. Hi. How are you? A couple of follow up questions. As the organization continues to evaluate the pension lift out opportunities, do you think the company will be in a position to make a decision later this year, or has the timeline changed as you continue to work through the mechanics and details of how that would all work?
Ralph LaRossa:
You want to give that one with Dan?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Ryan there is really no change in schedule, I think, it's a – we think about it as being a 2023 event, but we'll continue to watch what's going on. We'll continue to watch what the market looks for is a large deal announced today on that front. So, we'll make sure that as we do move forward first and foremost continuation of benefits and certainty around all that and all that diligence that we're going to do and that everything works well it’s going to be super important, but we'll also keep an eye on what the overall market conditions are to move forward on that.
Ryan Levine:
Got it. Appreciate the color. And then as in terms of the Salem, what's the remaining process to extend the fueling cycle there? And are there any other capacity additions or changes to maintenance or refueling that you are contemplating in the near term?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, what we referred to in the script was that the NRC has several PWR plants that are looking at changing their fuel cycle from 18 to 24 months. So we're monitoring that. What we had discussed in the past and what we're continuing to look at is the additional upgrades, which are different than the fuel cycle down at Salem. So, more to come on that we have not disclosed anything further than what we talked about at the investor meeting.
Ryan Levine:
Okay. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please proceed with your questions.
Anthony Crowdell:
Good morning, Ralph. Good morning, Dan.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning. Anthony. How are you? Is your first comment going to be congratulations, devils?
Anthony Crowdell:
It was, congratulations, devils. Big win last night. Congratulations. I'm a little sad with my ranges. But most of my questions answered. Just one super quick one following up on Shar's question earlier on, I think, the thought of maybe using a hybrid maybe for financing, I guess, are you guys forecasting additional debt to parent to fund CapEx either at power or the utility?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, we gave a little bit of indication in March on that Anthony, that the parent will see some debt levels come down as the existing collateral cycle kind of works off down to a more baseline amount of collateral. But then over time, we do expect, as we continue to fund the capital plan that we have we do anticipate some incremental financing over time. And when Shar asked the question, is it something that we think of first and foremost as we're going to finance? No, we don't have equity needs as we go through the capital plan, but is it something that we would look at just to make sure we're not missing anything? I think that answers yes.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. That's all I had. Thanks so much.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Anthony.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks, Anthony.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ross Fowler with UBS. Please proceed your questions.
Ross Fowler:
Good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning, Ross.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning, Ross.
Ross Fowler:
I'll echo the congratulations devils. And my broods laid a big egg, so they cleared the way for me for sure. So most of my questions have been answered. Just maybe a couple for you, Dan. So, customer growth came in pretty good in the quarter, tracking around 1%.
Dan Cregg:
Yes.
Ralph LaRossa:
Can you just kind of remind us with the SIP what you've assumed for customer growth in your go forward earnings growth guidance?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, less than – between 0% and 1% is kind of the range that we've assumed for customer growth over time. And again, that's number of customers, that's the important element for us. Right.
Ross Fowler:
Right, right. And then there was this $0.10 of expected tax carryback, in your walk from 2022 to 2023, but that ended up coming in 2022. So, what other things are now sort of in 2023, given the absence of that $0.10 and get you back to sort of your 2023 guidance rate?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, it's a great question. And that $0.10 was not entirely the carryback that was the biggest chunk of it. And so that did come in early. What we're seeing in 2023 really that offset some of that without going through a whole bunch of puts and takes with respect to the guidance, which is still in the same place it was last quarter, is some of the lower collateral deriving lower interest, which is a little bit of a tailwind. So a headwind from the former, a tailwind from the latter. And we're still in the same place from an overall guidance perspective.
Ross Fowler:
All right. Perfect. That's all I had. Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Ross.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Ross. And I'll fill you in on my Panthers’ connection later.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, Ralph. How are you?
Ralph LaRossa:
Good.
Michael Sullivan:
Just wanted to circle back to the offshore wind transmission opportunity and solicitation next year. I guess like how should we think about the read through from the first go around? And I think the fact that it came on shore in JCP&L's territory and the fact that they got most of the opportunity there should we take that as a read through with using the Deans substation?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, Michael. I think, look, the fact that that work was awarded to JCP&L just indicated that they had some work to do to make that system more robust, to catch the power coming in, to use an analogy there. What you are hearing now is that the work that we have been doing at Deans has ready our system al already. So, we're in a little better place from a readiness standpoint at Deans. And I think that you are now seeing the BPU executing on what they had originally said from the beginning, which was, hey, we want to come into the southern part of the state, the central part of the state, and the northern part of the state. And our Deans substation switching station, allows them to execute on that plan.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. That's very helpful. And then just in terms of the timeline for any spend related to this solicitation next year?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. It's all end of the decade, Michael. We have been saying from the beginning, they will go through the solicitation process. Again they are still waiting for treasury as well to figure out the tax rules, once they get there, we will determine what's going to be transmission, what's going to be generator leads, and we'll be off to the races at that point. But that still puts us at the end of the decade before anyone is deploying capital on us.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. That’s very helpful. One, one quick one, back to the quarter. On the electric and gas margin, I just wanted to make sure I understood correctly the impact that was not covered by the SIP, what was that related to?
Ralph LaRossa:
So like, I think, we said in March there is about 95% of our overall revenues covered by the SIP, and there is some component that is not. And so we do have some variability, albeit much more on the smaller end. I think the variance you are talking about was a $0.01. So, it was not a significant amount, but there is some element that falls outside of it, some of the larger customers that's all.
Dan Cregg:
It's the I&C. It's a small piece of the I&C customer base.
Michael Sullivan:
Understood. Thanks guys, appreciate it.
Ralph LaRossa:
You bet Michael.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Seaport Global. Please proceed with your questions.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. So, I know you guys covered this in detail during the Analyst Day, but I still want to ask a question about the future of your nuclear plans. And so you talked about the assets being an important source of cash to finance the growth of the utility that you wanted to do upgrades at the assets and you were waiting for more guidance from IRS around nuclear PTCs. So, my question is – so is it just a question of timing in the sense that you are not ready yet to separate these assets, or maybe there is no easy way to separate these assets without any tax, so it could still come in the future? Or is it just a long-term strategy that you plan to stick with these assets and you hope that investors will value them at least the PTC backed earnings as regulated like?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Angie, I was trying to be as clear as possible at that investor meeting. We want to and expect to keep those assets in a portfolio. I don't see any scenario that we've been presented with that would make us waiver from that. And so, I just want to be as clear as I can, crisp as I can beyond that. You laid out exactly upfront, all the reasons why we articulated and I stand by that today as to why we're keeping those plants. They are a great cash flow, they've been run really, really well and they continue to be run really well. And so when you have that operating excellence combined with the cash flow, it does create a very unique utility like revenue stream for us that we think differentiates us from some of our peers. And hopefully across the board today you are seeing that differentiation.
Dan Cregg:
And hard to think of a more valuable asset in these times, Angie.
Angie Storozynski:
Yes, I mean, I don't disagree. But then lastly, so we're waiting for that guidance on nuclear PTCs, and it sounds like it's only going to come in the first quarter. Do you guys have any, like, what is the main question mark here? What is it? Is it about the low market hedges? Is those getting – if those are going to get recognized in that true up associated with the nuclear PTC, I'm just wondering what is it that we're really waiting for?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I'll not give it to Dan to give you some more details on this. But look at the very high level it's the definition of revenues and how that's going to be treated by treasury. But Dan can give you a lot more.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, just the mechanics of how it works Angie, I'm sure you know, is there's a calculation of grocery receipts and then a comparison to what the PTC threshold is and the credit kind of fills that gap. And so how that definition is determined, and you went to exactly some of the areas that I would reference and how do you treat hedges, is it a spot price, is it some kind of an assumption around what hedges have happened, is it actual hedges that it's just? It's unclear exactly how they will define the gross receipts in order to figure out how you move from that amount to the PTC threshold. And so, that's what we're waiting on. I think that at the end of the day, we'll get a reasonable answer. And I think that there's a significant support for what's there. And I think we just got to work, treasury has got to work their way through, what's going to make the sense across units that are in various situations across the country.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And then lastly so, we've heard from, consultation [ph], for example, that they are thinking about replacing some of the state support for their nuclear plans with the federal subsidies. In your case, I'm just thinking about it, so the – so the nuclear PTCs would accrue in 2024, but you would collect them only in 2025. So, New Jersey is expiring in May of 2025. So, is it fair to assume that it's unlikely that that there would be any changes in the current structure, given that, again, the payments roughly coincide with the expiration years [indiscernible]?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Angie I think, those mechanics are still ahead of us to be worked out. But I do think – look I think that all along, one of the things that we were saying that was so, so important is that we had a long term solution for nuclear. And I think that we were very happy to see that the PTCs did create that and honestly did create that at the federal level. And so if you think about most of the other elements that support renewable energy are the types of things through ITCs and PTCs that ultimately are funded at the federal level. And so that's another element that I think is very important within this. And that's what we will end up moving towards once this PTC amount starts to start to kick in.
Angie Storozynski:
Awesome, thank you.
Carlotta Chan:
Operator, we're going to conclude the Q&A Session at this time. And I will turn it over to Ralph for just the closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, well, thanks. So, listen, I appreciate everyone getting on, I appreciate the robust questions. I just leave you again with what we've been saying, ad nauseam at this point, but predictability and stability and confidence, and I think, that all three of those things have come across again today in both our results and hopefully in our Q&A. We're proud of the organization we've got here. We're proud of the results that we've been able to achieve. And we're just trying to build on 120 years of great history that we've been able to inherit. And as we've said multiple, multiple times, we want to leave it better than we found it. So, thank you for calling in and I appreciate the time.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Shamali and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 21, 2023, and will be available for replay as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at investor.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Shamali. Welcome to PSEG's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings presentation. Joining us on the call today are Ralph LaRossa, Chair, President and CEO of PSEG; and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and CFO. The press release attachments and slides for today’s discussion are posted on our IR website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-K will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income or net loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's material. Following Ralph and Dan's prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you to everyone joining us on our call this morning. Since the third quarter 2022 earnings report, we've had several important updates. Dan will provide you with a full financial review later in our prepared remarks as I will focus on some strategic highlights. We are pleased to report strong operating and financial results for both the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. We successfully navigated last year's challenges including inflation, supply chain disruptions, energies price spikes, and the steep rise in interest rates to deliver a GAAP earnings of $2.06 per share, and non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.47 per share, placing our results for the full year above the midpoint of our 2022 non-GAAP earnings guidance. In fact, 2022 was the 18th year in a row that PSEG has delivered non-GAAP results at or above management's original operating earnings guidance. PSE&G which contributed the vast majority of our results posted in 8.2% annual increase in net income from the continued investment in its TND infrastructure, clean energy programs and a first full year of decoupling. PSE&G invested over $3 billion of capital during 2022 in transmission upgrades, gas system modernization, energy efficiency, electric vehicle infrastructure and launched our efforts to address the reliability of the last mile of our distribution system. At year end 2022, PSE&G's rate base topped $26.4 billion a 7.7% increase over the year end 2021. We know the importance shareholders placed on a predictability and visibility of our financial results and during the past 12 months we have taken many steps to deliver just that. First, we completed the strategic alternatives process, which included the sale of PSE&G fossil last February. This increased the regulated contribution to about 90% of our consolidated non-GAAP earnings. We completed a $500 million share repurchase program in May of 2022 and increased the cash return to shareholders by raising the annual dividend by $0.12 or 5.9% for 2022. Second, the passage of the inflation reduction act of 2022 will offer our nuclear generation a level of much needed stability when it goes into effect in 2024. While the industry waits for clarifications, we believe the inflation reduction act is a game changer that should provide the stability required for long term financial viability of the U.S. nuclear fleet. As a result of the nuclear production tax credits extending through at least 2032 we are now able to consider small but important value added investments, including the potential for capacity upgrades to [indiscernible] a fuel cycle extension to hold Creek and the license extension of our New Jersey units. Critical to these decisions will be our determination of how predictable and visible nuclear revenues could be beyond our current three years ZEC window. The Ira also created valuable incentives for PSE&G's customers to accelerate their transition to electric vehicles, which will advanced New Jersey's decarbonisation goals and expand our opportunities to invest in last mile reliability and make ready infrastructure. This aligns with the recent state objectives to increase electrification. Just last week, Governor Murphy issued three executive orders that establish or accelerate the state's existing 2050 targets for clean source energy, building electrification and electric vehicle adoption goals with new target dates in 2030 and 2035. The Board of Public Utilities and other state agencies were directed to collaborate with stakeholders to develop plans to reach these goals. These include an updated energy master plan in 2024, and a new proceeding to develop a future of natural gas utility plant to consider new revenue streams, such as conversion of existing facilities to district geothermal, and new technologies to meet the 2019 energy master plan goal of 50% reduced emissions below 2006 levels by 2030. Third, we announced our strategic decision to exit our investment in offshore wind generation by selling our 25% equity stake in Ocean Wind 1 backdoor joint venture partner Ørsted. This decision to exit or short generation was consistent with our goal to increase the predictability of our business. PSE&G will continue to provide Ocean Wind 1 to onshore construction management services to ensure the onshore substations and associated onshore cabling are ready to receive the project's output when it goes in service. We also intend to continue pursuing regulated transmission projects offshore and investing in related transmission and distribution projects onshore and enabling the New Jersey wind port in Salem County. Finally, last week, the BPU approved the settlement of our pension accounting filing, retroactive to January 1, 2023. An important step we have pursued to limit pension expense volatility. This improved business platform created by the strategic actions we have taken over the past two years, combined with our efforts to increase the predictability of our results, positions us to narrow our 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings to a range of $3.40 to $3.50 per share from our original guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 a share provided last November. This new $0.10 range compares to the $0.20 range we have provided in previous years. These strategic rules also drive our outlook for long term compound annual earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2027 and enable us to pursue this growth path without the need to issue new equity during this five year period. Moving into 2023, we extended our 2022 dividend increase of $0.12 per share to set the 2023 indicative annual rate at $2.28 per share, marking our 116th year of paying a dividend to shareholders. PSE&G has begun executing its capital investment plan of over $3.4 billion for 2023 which is expected to be the largest single year spend in utilities 120 year history. This will be directed primarily towards infrastructure replacement, energy efficiency and last mile reliability. The good news is that additional headroom was created in our gas and combined customer bill, as the recent decline in natural gas prices has enabled PSE&G to reduce its residential default gas supply rate by $0.15 to $0.15 per therm for the balance of the winter 2020 to 2023 heating season. This decrease in the pastor commodity charge will reduce the typical residential winter gas bill by $13 per month annualized or 11.5%. Speaking of our customers, they rated PSE&G number one in 2022 JV Power customer satisfaction studies for both residential electric and natural gas service in the East among large utilities. This is the first time we have achieved both number one rankings in the same year. This honor culminated the year that saw PSEG recognized by the Edison Electric Institute with the Edison award, the industry's highest honor, for leadership and innovation. And speaking of leadership, PSEG's environmental, social and governance credentials continue to be recognized. In addition to our MSCI upgrades to triple A, its highest ESG rating PSEG was also named for the Dow Jones Sustainability North America index for the 15th year in a row, as well as just 100 list of America's most just companies for 2023 recognizes our commitment to serving our customers, workforce, communities, the environment and shareholders. None of this could be accomplished without our employees, who remain PSEG's most important resource. Together, we continue to be guided by PSEG's long standing commitment to operational excellence, discipline, investment, and financial strength. As I recognize our employees, I must take a moment to honor one that lost his life in a tragic act of violence. Some of you may have heard about the horrible loss when a member of the PSEG team was killed by a former employee. It was one of the saddest days in our company's history. Our condolences and prayers go out to all of those that have been impacted by this event. I also want to thank our employees who supported each other during this difficult time. We will continue to provide resources to protect the health, safety and wellbeing of all PSEG employees, including grief counseling for any employee seeking it. In closing, and as I mentioned earlier, we know the important stakeholders play some predictability and visibility of our financial results and goals. I have made increasing both factors, a key focus of PSEG's strategic plan. We intend to share the details of this plan on our upcoming investor conference on March 10 as we continue to build a practical path for decarbonizing the New Jersey economy. I'll now turn the call over to Dan and return after his remarks for Q&A.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph. Good morning everybody. For the full year 2022 GAAP earnings were $2.06 per share, compared to a GAAP loss of $1.29 per share for the full year of 2021, which included fossil sale related impairments. Non-GAAP results for $3.47 per share for 2022 compared to 2021's non-GAAP results of $3.65 per share, which you may recall excluded depreciation related to the fossil assets held for sale in the fourth quarter of '21 and retirement of power debt. For the fourth quarter of 2022 GAAP earnings improved to $1.58 per share, compared with $0.88 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.64 per share compared with $0.69 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021 which contain the fossil sale related items I just mentioned. We provided information on slides 9 and 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business on the fourth quarter and full year periods ended December 31. Slides 10 and 12 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year and non-GAAP operating earnings by major business which I will review now starting with PSE&G. Full year 2022 net income rose by $119 million or over 8% to $1.565 billion compared to 2021 net income of $1.446 billion reflecting higher earnings from continued investment in TND programs and the favorable impact of a full year of decoupling in 2022. For the fourth quarter of 2022, the utilities net income rose by $81 million to $352 million or $0.70 per share compared to $0.53 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. As you can see on Slide 10 transmission margin and a penny per share compared to the year earlier quarter, reflecting growth and rate base partly offset by the timing of O&M recovery. Gas, electric and other margin contributed combined to add $0.07 per share compared with last year's fourth quarter reflecting GSMP II roll-ins the Conservation incentive program or CIP decoupling for both electric and gas, appliance service and other margins. On the expense side, O&M was flat versus the prior year quarter. Higher distribution depreciation and interest expense each reduce results by a penny per share reflecting higher plant in service and investment. Lower pension expense added a penny per share versus a year ago quarter and flow through taxes the impact of lower outstanding shares and other items added $0.10 per share compared to the fourth quarter of '21 with $0.07 of that amount reversing the timing impact of taxes from prior quarters in 2022. During '22, PSEG invested over $3 billion in planned capital spending to upgrade transmission and distribution facilities, enhance reliability and increased resiliency. In 2022, we also launched the IAP our $511 million infrastructure advancement program, which the BPU authorized last June to improve the reliability of the last mile of our electric distribution system and address aging substations and gas M&R stations. As Ralph mentioned a year in 2022 PSE&G's rate base stood at approximately $26.4 billion a 7.7% increase over year end 2021. Last Friday, the Board of Public Utilities approved an order authorizing PSE&G to modify its method of pension accounting for ratemaking purposes, which will mitigate variability in the calculation of PSE&G's pension expense for calendar year 2023 and beyond. The backdrop of economic conditions continue to improve in New Jersey during 2022. New Jersey's unemployment rate return to pre-pandemic levels of 3.3% in September, and remain below the national average at year end. System peak load reached 10,147 megawatts on August 9, exceeding the 10,000 megawatt level for the second year in a row. Weather normalized electric sales increased by 2% for the year with residential sales flat and CNI sales increasing by 3%. Weather normalize gas sales were flat for the year with residential gas sales down 1% while CNI sales increased by 2%. [The sale] mechanism because the impact of most customer usage from margin subject to earnings or rate cap limitations, leaving the change in the number of customers as the major driver of margin growth going forward. The number of electric and gas customer rose by approximately 1% each in 2022. Wrapping up the utility update. We've narrowed our forecast of PSE&G's net income for 2023 To $1.5 billion to $1.525 billion which reflects pension and OPEB updates compared to 2022 offset by the benefit of contemporaneously recovered investments, predictability of utility margin from the safety coupling, as well as the implementation of the pension accounting filing effective for calendar year '23. Now turning to carbon free infrastructure another. For full year 22 CFIOs net loss of $534 million or $1.06 per share reflected higher losses on both mark to market transactions and nuclear decommissioning trust fund related activity. The full year 2021 net loss included impairments and debt extinguishment costs related to the fossil sale. Non-GAAP operating earnings declined $174 million or $0.35 per share from $407 million for full year '21 reflecting the absence of the fossil assets. The fourth quarter 22 CFIOs net income improved to $436 million or $0.88 per share from $174 million in the year ago quarter, reflecting higher gains on both mark to market transactions and NDT fund related activities. Net income for the fourth quarter ‘21 included debt extinguishment costs and other charges related to the sale of fossil. For the fourth quarter 2022 the non-GAAP operating earnings loss of $34 million or $0.06 per share reflected the absence of the fossil assets compared to the fourth quarter 2021 non-GAAP earnings of $81 million or $0.68 per share, which reflected the cessation of depreciation and lower interest costs related to the fossil sale. Referring again to Slide 10, non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.22 per share lower in the fourth quarter than the fourth quarter of 2021 driven by lower capacity prices for the remaining nuclear fleet, but regeneration volume recontracting lower prices and lower deck revenue compared to the year ago quarter. Combined these items drove electric gross margin to decline $0.34 per share. Gas operations improved by $0.04 per share, reflecting higher off system sales, higher commodity pricing and higher stores. Power related cost comparisons for the fourth quarter 2022 improve his overall O&M expense was $0.07 per share favorable compared to the year ago quarter. Again reflecting fossil assets sale, partly offset by the plan refueling at the 100% owned Hope Creek nuclear plant in this year's fourth quarter. Appreciation and interests were higher by a penny per share that reflected the March 2022 debt issuance of power versus the year earlier debt retirements related to the fossil sale. Activity was a pay per share favorable compare the fourth quarter of 2021 primarily reflecting the essence of 2021's donation to the PSEG foundation, partly offset by higher parent interest of $0.04. Taxes and other improved by a penny per share over the fourth quarter of 2021 and includes the accelerated receipt of expected tax carried out claim in '22 instead of '23, which is partially offset by the reversing of a timing impact from tax benefits in prior quarters in 2022. Turning to ops. The nuclear fleet operated and an average capacity factor of 85.8% during the fourth quarter, which included the Hope Creek and 7.3 terawatt hours requirement for generation. An unplanned outage at Salem unit two in late December 2022 occurred during a PJM region wide generation emergency action and resulted in capacity performance penalties. The net financial impact of the outage including replacement power, capacity penalties, as well as bonuses earned by the other operating PSEG units did not expect it to be material. For the full year the nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 92.2% producing 31.3 terawatt hours of generation. PSEG's forecasting total baseline baseload nuclear generation of approximately 31 terawatt hours for the full year of 23 hedged 95% to 100% and an average price of $31 per megawatt hour an increase of about $4 per megawatt hour compared to '22. For '24 total nuclear generation is forecast also to be approximately 31 terawatt hours, and 55% to 60% hedged than an average price of $32 per megawatt hour. In addition, in December, we exited certain legacy BGS or basic generation service contracts in order to rebalance our hedge portfolio and realign it to our baseload nuclear fleet and reduce volatility in 2023. Wrapping up CFIO we've narrowed our forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings to $200 million to $225 million from $185 million to $235 million. A quick update on financing activity and collateral postings. As of December 31, 2022, total available credit capacity was $3.7 billion including a billion at PSE&G. In addition, we have total cash and cash equivalents on hand of approximately $465 million. PSEG power had net cash collateral postings of $1.5 billion at December 31 primarily related to as a money hedge positions resulting from higher energy prices, which declined to $700 million through last Friday. Given the recent improvement in our collateral position, in January of this year, we prepaid $750 of a $1.5 billion short term loan that was due in April. Following the repayment of this term loan, PSEG had outstanding a total of $1.25 billion of 365 day term loans expiring this spring to support powers collateral needs and power had an outstanding a $1.25 billion term loan expiring in March of 2025. Combined, these term loans comprise $2.5 billion a variable rate debt. As we mentioned during our third quarter call, we entered into interest rate swaps during September and October of last year, which converted $1.05 billion of our outstanding term loans from floating to fixed rate reducing our variable rate debt exposure. Following the measurement of the pension at year end 2022, we've incorporated the impact of the actual 2022 investment returns, discount rate and interest rates into the 2023 pension [calculations]. Our expected return on plan assets increased to 8.1% for 2023, as the declining value of the fixed income securities due to higher interest rates during '22 enables a higher yield on them going forward. While 2022 investment returns has a negative impact on 2023 pension calculations, the increase in interest rates serves to reduce the pension liability with the funded status of a pension plan, ending the year at a solid 87%. In addition, the county settlement approved by the BPU will create a regulatory asset or liability to overlay our current accounting, which will partly mitigate the impact of certain expense related pension calculations going forward. As Ralph mentioned earlier, we've narrowed our 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $3.40 to $3.50 per share around the same $3.45 per share midpoint, with regulated operations continuing to contribute approximately 90% of that total. As a reminder, PSEG does not forecast GAAP earnings related and related long term growth rates. PSE&G's forecast of 2023 net income is narrowed to $1.500 billion to $1.525 billion reflecting the predictability provided by the expected transmission distribution investment recovery, and focus on owned and cost control. Non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for CFIO is now forecasted at $200 million to $225 million. CFIOs narrowed guidance also removed the previously expected benefits of the tax carry back claim from PSEG's 2023 operating guidance. That concludes our prepared remarks. So Shamali please open the line. And we'll take some questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] And the first question is from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Good morning Ralph and team. It's actually Constantine here for Shar. Congrats on the quarter.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey -
Unidentified Analyst:
Just wanted to start off with '23 guidance updates, and specifically on the utility. Do you have any updates on the O&M cost initiative targets and interest costs that are embedded in guidance versus what was presented in November especially as you're finding down some of the collateral needs. And just maybe to clarify, was the pension outcome the main driver for the 15 million decrease at the top end of the guidance?
Ralph LaRossa:
I think the way to think about the tension honestly, is just reducing volatility overall, as we think about it EI was in November, we were providing guidance. And as you know, we snapped the tape at 12.31. And so I think the elimination of the ups and downs that could have come from year end, which was not known at the time was part of the reason that we had a wider range at that point and are more narrow now I would say that that number came in right about where we thought it was going to. And so I would say we are consistent with that. But with the absence of the movement that we could have had. We had presumed at that time, Constantine, that we would obtain what we did subsequently obtained from the BPU. So that was presumed already and I would say from an O&M perspective. I'd say it's fair to think about the assumptions as being consistent as what we said at EI. We may see some benefits coming through by virtue of collateral coming off a little quicker but the year is not over. We'll continue to see some movements. And we'll continue to manage that going forward.
Dan Cregg:
Yes Constantine the only I would add from O&M standpoint, we would have been a culture of continuous improvement. And we'll continue to look for opportunities when they arise, but we don't normally publicize any specific numbers on that area.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. Thanks for that clarification. This one might be more for Dan, again, with the, with the announced exit from offshore wind. And the first part being though that put option on the JV and the potential incremental acreage sales more directly? How are you thinking about the use of proceeds? And as we think about the old investment capacity slide, and with the sale proceeds the unwind of the short term financing? Is there a target FFO to debt metrics that we need to think about in your longer term planning assumptions?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I think, we sell on it that that exit from motion when one would be at our cost to date. And we've characterized it as being right around $200 million just in just an excess of $200 million, so that it certainly is nice to have back but it's not a major item to move the needle with respect to the broader numbers. I think we've talked about having an overall as a footstep threshold 13% to 14%. And we've talked in the past about living somewhere north of that into the 15, 16 area. And I think that's a fair way to continue to think about where we are.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, and maybe for just one second shifting to nuclear. What's the threshold for including operational or CapEx driven upside into the plan and the needs associated with it, just thinking about co-owner and some of the assets of just being de-announcements around some of the upgrades elsewhere. Curious on any thoughts or conversations that you've had?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So we'll have our normal run rate operating capital. And to the extent that there's an opportunity to deploy capital to enhance results overall. Obviously, that analysis is going to go through just like any other analysis, we would do and be up against the hurdle rate that's going to show that it's going to make sense for us to do that. I think we have some promise on some things going forward. And maybe we'll give you a little bit more color about that, as we get a little further down the road on it.
Unidentified Analyst:
And any specific conversations that you've had or still too early?
Ralph LaRossa:
About the CapEx?
Unidentified Analyst:
With the co-owners.
Ralph LaRossa:
We talk to our callers all the time. I mean, that's just the normal operating but nothing specific. Yes.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, thank you. Appreciate it. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Pleae proceed with your questions.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning. It's actually Rich on for Jeremy. Can you hear me?
Ralph LaRossa:
Sure. Yes.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, thanks. circle back to the offshore we update just on the acreage. Any options here evaluating beyond an outright sale here? Also curious when we can expect the next update on this front?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So Rich, just unequivocally we're not going to be in the offshore generation business. I mean that and the timing of what we do, we'll just be keeping an eye on the market and see what makes sense.
Unidentified Analyst:
Very clear. Got it. And then just Governor Murphy's executive orders within that I guess the 100% clean energy plan. How do you see this impacting the Energy Master Plan overall and curious at a high level, what you're focused on either from that front or from an EMP front?
Ralph LaRossa:
So I would kind of say, there's a lot of good news in that announcement last week for a company like ours, and especially one, it's been focused. We kicked off this effort on the last mile last year and I think this just kind of reinforces the need for it from a customer standpoint, and from a reliability standpoint. So lots of opportunities. We'll certainly be engaged in that. I personally am tripling down on electric vehicles as much as we can in this area, and that's driving the decarbonisation in the state. And then from a gas system standpoint, certainly some push on whether or not there's a lot of expansion of the gas system, we have about a high 80% saturation rate for our customers. So we never had our business plan set up for growth on the gas side. That's not in our numbers. We just kind of hook up customers, as they call this, but our replacement plans are completely aligned. If you look at the wording that's in the executive order by reducing methane emissions. So we think there's just a lot of positives in that announcement. And we'll work with the state and policy makers on whatever we can self drive that in the Energy Master Plan.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it, very helpful it. Sorry, just wanted to circle back one last time to offshore wind [indiscernible] to acreage. Is that is that all committed? And can you just run the numbers on what's in there and what's net to PEG?
Ralph LaRossa:
It’s 35,000 acres, and so there's about 35,000 acres that are still available to some degree, we've committed some of that are set if they go ahead skip check. I don't have the exact numbers in front of us, but it's a de minimis amount of that 35,000.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, there's, as that project was going forward, there was a need for some incremental acreage. And so some of those were made available for that purpose.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thank you for the time today.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Rich.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, guys. Just on the bench in front, I just want to reconcile and make sure we have this accurately captured the accounting order from the BPU last week that roughly mitigates about 20% to 30% of the pension expense volatility. So if you can confirm that, Dan, if that's still the right number, and then maybe you can update us on the sort of the lift out approach that you had highlighted you were considering just any updates that you can share there as well.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I guess I'm the first question. I think that's a reasonable way to think about it, although you will see as you step through time, some of the components elements under changing. So it's not a I think it's a fair way to think about where we sit today. But as we step through time, some of that could move as some of the component elements end up changing. I think with respect to the list that we've talked about a little bit in the past, we are continuing to explore that as a potential. Again, as a reminder really what that does is just shrink the overall size of the pension for us. And I think that potential still exists for us we're still doing diligence on it and we're working our way through the process. And we'll have some more information for you as we go through the year. But I wouldn't expect anything to be imminent but I would hope to see something happen this year [indiscernible] Durgesh.
Ralph LaRossa:
We might have lost him.
Operator:
Durgesh are you on mute? Not sure he's still connected but --
Carlotta Chan:
Shamali we can move to the next question. And if Durgesh comes back, we'll continue with him.
Operator:
Sure. No problem. Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
David Arcaro:
Hey, Ralph and Dan. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey Dave.
David Arcaro:
Let's see. I was curious on nuclear. So many of your peers recently announced higher levels of nuclear O&M heading into 2023. Curious if you would expect a similar dynamic in terms of upward O&M pressure on your nuclear units? And then separate but somewhat related on nuclear fuel. They also, we're taking a more conservative approach in terms of building inventory and lowering risk of any kind of Russian supply interruptions that could occur in the future. Wondering if you have considered a similar strategic approach in terms of sourcing nuclear fuel.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So a couple of things on that front, on the just from an O&M standpoint, as you recall, the inflation reduction act required anyone who wanted to participate in the PTC or not participate, but fully participate in the PTC to pay prevailing wages at the sites. And we have been doing that for years here at PSEG. So no awkward O&MM impact for us. I don't know if there's anything beyond that the others are talking about, but specifically for us, I don't see anything that would be driving additional O&M expenses at those plants. And then on a fuel supply. We were not as dependent on Russian fuel supply, as at all for our fuel supply. So it's not an issue for us that we needed to get in front of, and I think we'll talk a little bit more about that at the, at our investor meeting. But I just it's, again, that's something that was forefront for us or something that we had to proactively address. Because we're not, we're just not in that marketplace. I think there's an impact on the entire market. There'll be an impact for everyone. But that's something we are trying to jump in front of right now.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think we got pretty good line of sight in the near term on nuclear fuel, David just given from the standpoint of the fuel in the reactor, and then you've got your upcoming fuel reloads and those that as you kind of go through the years, the near term is pretty well-hedged and known, and that's on top of the fuel that's in the reactor. So I think we're in pretty good shape for the pursuit for the foreseeable future.
David Arcaro:
Got it. Got it. Thanks. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to clarify on the collateral postings. It's great to see that they've come down maybe sooner than expected. I was wondering if you could just remind us of how the collateral kind of falls off through the year and is that earlier than you had previously anticipated I think $800 million that you were able to pay down earlier? Is that helpful for EPS in terms of taking some of the short term debt off the balance sheet for this year?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, David, we've said before, if you think about most of the price differential and most of the period that we do have hedged, a lot of what we would expect to see is that those positions would roll off through '23 and into the winter of '24 was where the bigger element of the totals were. And so that timing is fairly consistent. I think, to the extent that you saw prices come down, you're going to see a lower overall balance to the extent that they go back up that'll continue to move. So it will continue to be dynamic, but to the extent that that stays a little bit lower as we run through these next 12 months, we would have less overall collateral posted and that would be a benefit.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Are you back?
Durgesh Chopra:
I am. Can you hear me now?
Ralph LaRossa:
We can.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay, sorry about that. It was actually my headset. So Dan, thank you. I heard all of that. I appreciate it. Just the lift that was roughly another 20% to 30% that would reduce the pension volatility by and so if you were able to get that successfully, the uplift successfully executed that would essentially basically kind of the 50% of the pension expense volatility would have been taken care of includes [indiscernible] order last week. Am I thinking about that correctly?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think you mean the list out. Right.
Durgesh Chopra:
Yes. That's right.
Dan Cregg:
So I think that's a good way to think about if you think about building blocks, you'll have an element related to the utility with respect to the unrecognized losses, and then you would have another element which would be of comparable size. I think the way you're thinking about the math is right. There is the only caveat is again, as you do go through times, you'll see the different cost components and return components changed a little bit. So you could see some of them, but I think that's a fair way to think about it there.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay, perfect. And just one last one again in terms of timing, you might have said that, expect an update sometime this year. So by Analysts Day or Investor Day in March, we shouldn't be expecting that you get a you get a bench and lift out, right. That's coming later in the year?
Dan Cregg:
That's the right way to think about it. Yes.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thank you so much. I appreciate it again, guys. And thank you for bringing me back in time to ask my questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Anytime Durgesh.
Ralph LaRossa:
Take care of the headset.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Michael.
Michael Sullivan:
Hey, Ralph, how are you. Great. Yes, I didn't want to like front run the hour, say too much here. But just can you maybe give us a little preview of what else to expect just in terms of new disclosures? I mean, I imagine the growth rate and all that is kind of set. But in terms of like some of the nuclear things you alluded to, or we get some more flavor there. And then I guess on offshore wind side, it sounds like that timings not really tied to the analyst day?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, that's not. Look I would say this The Michael, if you walk out of that meeting with even more confidence in our ability to execute on the things that we've been talking about that would be my goal for that investor meeting. We've done that over the last year in some crazy turbulent times. And I think that you'll see more of that. And I want you to walk out of that meeting with more confidence. So more than doubling down on some of the things that we've got planned in the utility. And that should be the real highlight of the conversation a little more about our thoughts about how to respond to the governor's call for action.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay, great. And then I think this kind of got asked a little bit, but just on the offshore wind proceeds. So it sounds like the $200 million you already got back is not a big needle mover. But when you stack that on top of what you could potentially get for GSOE. I'd imagine that's a little more material. So kind of as we think about where those proceeds could go.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, and just so we are 100% clear, we have not received the $200 million back yet, right? That's in the process with our partner, and we're going through dotting the I's and crossing the T's in that whole conversation. So more to come on that front. But I think the materiality of the GSOE is a TBD. And we'll see what the market gives us on that front. And then Dan, and the team will do what Dan and the team have done for many years and put it to the best use.
Michael Sullivan:
Sorry. So are you suggesting that it could end up being in material like is there a reason that no actually worth anything?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I just don't want to, we're not building a plan that's built that's based on getting some New York bight multiples on it. So I don't want people to walk away with some inflated opinion on what those acres are going to be worth. We'll see what the market comes back with.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay, fair enough. Okay. Thanks very much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it. Good to chat with you guys.
Ralph LaRossa:
It's been a while.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
It's been a second year. Absolutely. I'm so just with respect to how you guys want to come back to this real quickly. A couple different moving pieces. First off, if I heard right in the comments, BGS here, you guys are moving away from that seems like a slightly more important strategic decision after years of benefiting there. Can you talk about that a little bit here, again, obviously not a big contribution. But then also related here, probably more critical and looking forward here what's your latest interpretation of the PTC and how that interplays with your 24 hedges and ultimately how you think about hedging right now, considering what IRS may or may not do?
Ralph LaRossa:
I want to give that to Dan to give you details on it. But that is not a recent move on our part. We have been moving away over time on the BGSS and I think we've BGS and we've talked about that for a while on that BGSS for BGS and we've been we've been doing that if it's a different product, right? It's more of a shape product than a than a baseball product that are nuclear plants with support but Dan will give you a lot more details on that and the GMP.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, just to just to be super clear, Julian if you think about it, the BGS product is a default product in New Jersey on the electric side of the business. And so PCG power has used that as a hedge for a long time and PCG power had nuclear and fossil units and had a very shaped output, seasonality by virtue of having both nuclear and fossil generation. And as we sold the fossil units, and we still had some BGS obligations you think about those are three years at a time that was not an ideal fit for nuclear, which is more shaped in a more of a block power. And so really don't take too much from the sale of the BGS. It just those remaining legacy tranches were not a good fit for a nuclear output that looks more like block shape power. What is not is related to the BGSS, which is basic gas supply service that we provide to PSE&G Ng, and actually can leverage some of that excess capacity in a way that we've done for many years and will continue to do that. So the move away is for just the small remaining legacy tranches that we had on BGS on the electric side, that were taken on three years at a time and unrelated to BGSS. With respect to the interpretations, I would love to have more of an interpretation than I do right now. But we don't have guidance from Treasury related to how they will define grocery seats in determining what the PTC will be based upon. And so we are still a little bit at the mercy of what Treasury will do. I think the outcome of the PTC's is going to be positive and supportive. But the exact dynamics of exactly what numbers you would use to figure out what that's going to be is undetermined by that I mean to the other part of your question how they will account for hedges in their calculation. And so that's the guidance we're still waiting upon. I think that the outcome will influence how we will end up hedging the nuclear units. We will try to align with how they will define grocery seats so that ultimately the PTC that we get will kind of fit the overall mechanism as it's supposed to work. And we can end up with that steady ultimate result at the PTC threshold or above if the markets are higher and so we're still a little bit of a waiting game. And I don't even have a date to tell you when Treasury is going to come out with it. The PTC has come into play for the first time in Cal 24. Obviously, companies like ours hedge in advance of that. So I'd love to have information sooner rather than later. But other elements of the IRA do kick in 2023. So we have not heard back from Treasury, any guidance with respect to how they're thinking about that exact definition.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And related here with their second New Jersey stakeholders. Any update in the how you're thinking about treating it? There any changes in that construct, as you think about like a belt and suspenders of the federal program here? And we heard some comments from your peers here.
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I mean, look, I think the upshot is that to the extent that PTC is a payment for the attribute, and ZEC is the payment for the attribute, we will net back that amount to the state. And that was in the original ZEC legislation that was put together. And so I think if that's net over the long run, this is going to be a very good thing for New Jersey because the payment for the attribute that's going to help nuclear ensure that it does have financial backing is going to be borne by the federal government rather than just New Jersey, and that'll be a positive thing on the bills over the long run.
Dan Cregg:
And I would I would just support that by just saying from a belt and suspenders standpoint, I think anything we do here we be enough and policymakers in New Jersey would be for next generations. It's not something that would be belt and suspenders for anything near the near term.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Understood what you mean by that. Appreciate that. All right. Excellent. Thank you guys very much. Appreciate it. Actually one last quick one on power, just if you don't mind with respect to all the commentary from the governor's office, etc. are you thinking about updating investments around power and the opportunities to maximize value of those assets here? And we've seen some commentary again, from some of your peers there but again, given what's going on with the governor, etc. I'm just curious if that is even more of an opportunity.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think that was the PTC and that's in my opening remarks a little bit there Julian was all about hey, we potentially do some upgrades to Salem some change in the fuel cycle at Hope Creek and then long term extension of the licenses themselves. Not to mention everybody's talking about hydrogen element. But we'll talk a little bit more about that all on March 10.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. All right. That's what I thought. Thank you guys. Appreciate it. Good luck.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson:
Hello good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Just really quick just the extension of the licenses. Is that already reflected in the depreciation schedule of the assets?
Ralph LaRossa:
No.
Paul Patterson:
And how much might that lower the level of depreciation?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So the depreciation runs through 2036, 2040, 2046 for the New Jersey, and 2053, 2054, for the Pennsylvania units, and so those are presumptive of the extensions that gets you to those dates. But we've talked about those two things going on we talked about is the potential for another extension in New Jersey. That is not what is in place right now. And also, you may recall, [indiscernible] point had some questions raised by the NRC about their existing license extension, which has not changed what we have done. We believe that that will be restored without any change. And so with respect to the incremental 20 years, I don't have a number off the top of my head as to what that would do to us. But we can, that's easy math, I think that's all available. We could get that to you Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Just over the years, we've seen different companies recognize these depreciation changes because of license extensions at different times. Some do it even before they file with the NRC. Some do it only when they get the NRC is official ruling on it. Any thoughts about when we might see the depreciation benefit show?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think it's most likely what we have in hand, the extension.
Ralph LaRossa:
And Paul let me just reiterate what Dan said about the timing. You got 36, 40 and 46 on these units. And normally, you would apply in about 10 years in advance. So just to kind of set the timeframe for you as to when the application going, we're just talking about it because it would be within the five years of our business plan.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, got you. Thanks so much.
Ralph LaRossa:
For the work done. Probably not for the receipt of the extension.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thank you.
Ralph LaRossa:
Sure.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Morning Travis.
Travis Miller:
On the transmission, the onshore of the offshore transmission, any update on solicitations or development there anything along those lines?
Ralph LaRossa:
No. We're waiting on that as well. I don't expect anything in the very near term on that. I think the BPU is committed to seeing through the work that they've approved so far, but we have not. There's no indication at this point on the timing of any new solicitations.
Travis Miller:
Okay, is a gating factor is the development in future off for when or would there be additional transmission for current?
Ralph LaRossa:
I think a bunch of it has to do with the IRA and understanding how the tax treatment would be for a wire whether it's a wired it's deemed a generator lead or a wired deemed offshore transmission. So once they get through that process, I think there'll be some better idea of five times.
Travis Miller:
Okay, makes sense. And then I said I mentioned about the rate case at the end of the year. Anything unusual about that that would come out or just typical operating costs, capital updates?
Dan Cregg:
No, just typical. Okay, that's all I had. Appreciate it.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Travis.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Anthony Crowdell:
Hey, good morning, Ralph. Good morning Dan.
Ralph LaRossa:
How are you?
Anthony Crowdell:
Good. Just two quick ones, want to follow up from Durgesh’s two parter. You talked about maybe two of the three parts you were going to use to mitigate pension volatility. I think the third party didn't talk about was a pension tracker that you're going to ask for and rate case have filed the end of the year. Any feedback or discussion you've had with policymakers on support or anything around that?
Ralph LaRossa:
I'll start and Dan can add anything he wants to put there. But look at the end of the day, whether it's a tract or any other kind of mechanism, we absolutely plan to have a conversation with the BPU about that. I'm just very happy with the near term what we were able to accomplish. And I think the combined with the American Water Adjustment or mechanism they put in for them I think the BPU is recognizing there may be some value here for not just for the companies but for the customers as well as they look at this. So we'll continue to have a conversation. I won't get tied into a tracker or mechanism but we'll have a conversation about it. It'd be part of the [rare case].
Anthony Crowdell:
And then just one last housekeeping. If I look at the long term EPS growth rate 5% to 7%, capital spending drives rate base to your 6 to 7.5 a slight difference there. There is just a difference on the book ends there. The growth at the CFIO.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, because the five to seven is for enterprise and the rate base growth is solely of utility, so anything and everything and CFIO is going to be in there. And then you'll have a little bit of noise as you go through O&M and different other components. But I think I think they're largely consistent. You should think about them that way.
Anthony Crowdell:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Anthony.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Lautenberg Dauman. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey Paul.
Paul Fremont:
Hey good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning.
Paul Fremont:
Sort of a quick question on rate base growth. You guys I think had a range. But I think most of the stretch CapEx looked to be in the out years. So I was wondering how you got such a strong level of rate base growth in 2022?
Dan Cregg:
The only thing I can think of. And I'm trying to interpret your question a little bit fall is whether any see web, it kind of worked its way through the numbers that could change your ultimate rate base as you go year-to-year.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. Also, can you give us cents per share in terms of what change in pension cost you're assuming in 2023?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, versus 22?
Paul Fremont:
Yes.
Speaker:
At EI. we've given a range of $0.25 to $0.30 for pension and OPEB. And we're right within that range, that kind of around the midpoint of that range. So that's a consistent number. Obviously, EI we were estimating where we would come out, and we didn't see too much movement, either in markets or interest rates that moved us away from that. So you think about middle of that range? I'm in pretty good shape.
Paul Fremont:
Okay, but you still got the accounting audit, right? And that didn't change the range is what you're saying?
Ralph LaRossa:
It was assumed we had filed it at that point. And we had commented that we were optimistic that that would come through. It came through as expected. So it was part of what we were thinking at the time when we provide the range.
Paul Fremont:
Great. And in terms of hedge guidance, I mean, is there a reason why we haven't seen sort of 25 hedge guidance for peg power?
Dan Cregg:
No we got updated through '23 and '24. I mean, part of the answer could well be if you want to think about it this way, Paul, is that we still are awaiting what Treasury is going to do from the standpoint of, of guidance. And so that's going to be an important element as we go forward.
Paul Fremont:
Okay, and then last question for me. You guys gave a gross margin per megawatt hour. Is there any guidance that you can provide on a gross margin per megawatt hour basis for peg power in 2023?
Ralph LaRossa:
No, I mean, I think we've given you the overall hedge price across '23 and characterizes 95% to 100% fair. So I think you'll see that as we go through the quarters.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Paul.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Paul.
Operator:
Our next question comes --
Carlotta Chan:
We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Okay. No problem. And our last question comes from the line of Sophie Karp with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Sophie Karp:
Hi. Good morning. Thank you for putting me in here. Most of my questions have been answered actually. But maybe I can just ask you about the gas utility future in New Jersey. Had given the -- in the comments that are coming out from the governor and just overall focus on electrification. How do you think about kind of the setup that you have going into this? What could be a multi decade trend? Specifically, are your electric and gas territories fully overlapped in terms of customers? Like where whatever you might lose as a gas business you will gain as an electric business or are they kind of cannibalized by other utilities? How should we think about that?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So it's a mixed bag for us that we have some gas only territory, some electric only territory but [indiscernible] our customers, bulk are combined. So I don't want to say it's a win-win, but it is a win-win for us to great expense. And because we're focused on all of our gas investments being in replacement activities, not new activities, but replacement activities that are going to help reduce methane, we're thinking those investments will make a ton of sense and will continue. So I actually think about this more from the standpoint of the speed in which we electrify and the cost to consumers and how we think about that. So we'll continue to drive that point. We'll be able to offset a bunch of it with the Energy Efficiency work that we've started. And we'll continue. We don't talk about our energy efficiency programs, half as much as we did in the past. But that's because it's just become such a core part of our business like any other anything else we do. So I'm thinking that the energy efficiency will help create more headroom on the bill. As we do that for customers the electrification can move faster in those areas, but for some of our urban centers, the challenges will remain and we'll have to really work closely with policymakers not to have sticker shock for everyone in the state.
Sophie Karp:
Terrific, thanks so much. That’s all from me.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks Sophie.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you.
Operator:
And that is all the time we have for questions. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Well, thank you. And I just three things I want to hit on. One again, our thoughts and prayers to all those who were impacted by the tragic events that we had here earlier this month. The organization is still dealing with that and will continue for probably years to come. But during that time, we have always talked a lot about the transition and leadership here. And I think Ralph Izzo and a number of other people in the past, but no time, whatever either what I want to do more than now is thank the entire team and my direct reports that have been standing here with me and been able to not only deal with the tragic events, but also to execute on a plan that you heard earlier today. We've accomplished a lot in a short period of time. We'll continue to do that. And we'll continue to build your confidence and look forward to having that conversation with you on March 10 when we meet with you at the stock exchange in New York. Thanks for calling in.
Operator:
And ladies and gentlemen this concludes the teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Rob and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Today's Conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, October 31, 2022, and will be available for reply as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Rob. Welcome to PSEG's third quarter 2022 earnings presentation. Joining us on the call today are Ralph LaRossa, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG; and Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our press release attachments and slides for the discussion today are posted on our Web site and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net income or loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR Web site and in today's material. Following Ralph and Dan's prepared remarks, we will conduct a 30 minute question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call over to Ralph.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us today. As you may know, this is my first earnings call since becoming CEO in September. And if you've met with us over the past few months, you've heard me lay out my initial action plan for PSEG to deliver value to our investors. The focus is clear and simple. Continue to grow the company through investments with appropriate risk adjusted returns, and increase the predictability of our business by reducing the variability in both financial and operating results. PSEG has a solid utility operation, a constructive regulatory and policy environment, and now a federal tax incentive for a nuclear fleet that stabilizes its cash flows for a decade. Together, these attributes make PSEG a compelling investment. Earlier today, we reported net income of $0.22 per share for the third quarter of 2022, compared to a net loss of $3.10 per share in the third quarter of 2021 that was related to the announced sale of our Fossil assets. We also reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.86 per share for this third quarter, compared to $0.98 per share in the third quarter of 2021. Results for the 9 months ended September 30 of $2.83 per share place us squarely within our guidance range. So we are narrowing our 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $3.40 to $3.50 per share, assuming normal operations over the remaining 2 months of 2022. We remain highly confident in the growth potential of our regulated investments and are committed to the cost discipline needed to minimize the impact of current economic conditions. We also reaffirm a 5% to 7% multiyear EPS CAGR to 2025 with the understanding that this CAGR is nonlinear. And we fully intend to deliver on our earnings guidance expectations, as we've done for the last 17 years and counting. PSE&G's investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure continue to produce rate base growth consistent with our long-term expectations. Our new infrastructure advancement program, which launches investment in a critical last mile of our distribution system, and the clean energy future investments are also supporting a wide range in decarbonization priorities, driven by our programs to expand energy efficiency, electric vehicles, solar investments and create clean energy jobs and training opportunities. Now turning to our offshore wind ventures, we are approaching a final investment decision on Ocean Wind 1 in New Jersey to determine if we will proceed to the construction phase. We are reviewing our options related to our 25% equity investment in Ocean Wind 1, as well as our option to purchase 50% of Ørsted's Skipjack 2 project and options regarding PSEG's interest in the remaining Garden State Offshore Energy lease area. Last week, the BPU completed its review of offshore wind transmission competitive proposals and awarded several onshore only projects. PSE&G was awarded 50 -- sorry, $40 million of system upgrade work needed to accommodate the injection of offshore wind generation in Central New Jersey. However, the BPU also indicated it will consider an additional solicitation to address the state's increased offshore wind generation targets. We remain optimistic that our emphasis on reliability and resiliency will keep it as a strong contender for any future offshore transmission solicitations to bring regional offshore wind projects onshore. Our Energy Strong investments in the aftermath of Sandy lifted and hardened PSE&G substations against future storms. With similar foresight, the BPU has recognized for the infrastructure advancement program, that attention is needed to address that last mile of our distribution system, and proactively replace critical components in advance of electrification. Safe and reliable operations will always be the core of our customer focus mindset. This is the focus of our team of over 12,000 dedicated employees every day in providing safe and reliable service to over 3 million customers in New Jersey and Long Island. As a result of these efforts, I'm pleased to report that both PSE&G, our nuclear operations are trending at above top quartile metrics on several key measures. In addition, PSE&G continues to receive some of its highest ever customer satisfaction ratings from J.D. Power. The 2022 hurricane season has been relatively quiet in New Jersey and Long Island, which enabled PSE&G [indiscernible] mutual aid to Florida to assist with hurricane in restoration. Our thoughts and prayers in addition to our support went out to all those impacted by Ian. I mentioned this cooperation because it is unique in our industry and we all benefit from it. On this 10-year anniversary of Superstorm Sandy, we remain acutely aware of how a single powerful storm rolling up the Atlantic Coast can permanently affect lives, destroy homes, businesses and livelihoods for extended periods of time. And we remember how grateful we were for the support we receive then. I'm also proud to announce that MSCI has raised PSEG's corporate environmental, social and governance ratings to AAA from AA, placing us at its highest rating. PSEG has also improved its score within the top tier of the 2022 CPA-Zicklin Index of corporate political disclosure and accountability. I've met and listened intently to many of you these past few months. And I recognize the importance of maintaining our financial strength, preserving our ability to grow without needing to dilute our existing shareholder base and rewarding our shareholders with a compelling common dividend yield. As we approach several critical decisions and the weeks and months ahead, I will be guided by the approach that I mentioned at the very beginning, prioritizing predictability and increasing shareholder returns. I look forward to meeting with many of you at the EEI Financial Conference over November 13 through November 15 where we will announce PSEG's 2023 full year earnings guidance, provide more detail around our estimate of pension impact on 2023 financials, as well as a longer term EPS growth rate. I'll now turn the call over to Dan, who will provide you with the financial review and outlook.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Ralph. Good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned, for the third quarter of 2022, PSEG reported net income of $0.22 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.86 per share. We provided you with information on Slides 8 and 10 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business, the third quarter and year-to-date periods ended September 30. Slides 9 and 11 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and year-to-date for 2022 and 2021, and non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I will now discuss results starting with PSE&G. PSE&G's results were $0.03 higher compared to the third quarter of 2021, driven by continued capital investments in transmission, distribution and clean energy. Compared to the third quarter of 2021, transmission margin was flat as growth and rate base of $0.02 per share was offset by the combination of the August 2021 formula rate settlement which included a lower return on equity and the timing of O&M expense first recovery. For distribution, electric margin was $0.02 favorable compared to the third quarter of 2021, driven by investments in Energy Strong II and the impact of the conservation incentive program or CIP mechanism. Gas margin improved by $0.01 per share over the third quarter of 2021, reflecting recoveries of our Gas System Modernization II investments and other margin primarily related to our appliance service business also added $0.01 per share, compared with the third quarter of 2021. O&M expense was $0.01 per share unfavorable compared with the third quarter of 2021 and interest expense was $0.01 per share unfavorable reflecting higher investment. Flow-through taxes and other items had a net unfavorable impact of $0.01 per share compared to third quarter 2021, driven by the use of an annual effective tax rate. For the year to date, unfavorable flow through taxes of $0.07 per share year-over-year will reverse in the fourth quarter of 2022. Lower shares outstanding had a $0.01 per share benefit on third quarter 2022 results versus the year earlier quarter, reflecting the impact of the completed $500 million share repurchase program. And in addition, non-operating pension expense was $0.01 per share favorable compared with the third quarter 2021. Weather during the third quarter, as measured by the temperature-humidity index, or THI was 19% warmer than normal, but similar to conditions during the third quarter of 2021. With the CIP in effect, variations in weather both positive and negative have a limited impact on electric and gas margins, while enabling the widespread adoption of PSE&G's energy efficiency programs. PSE&G's system peak load exceeded 10,000 megawatts for a second summer in a row on August 9. And growth in the number of electric and gas customers has continued to track at approximately 1% for the trailing 12-month period ended September 30. Regarding our capital spending program, PSE&G invested approximately $795 million during the third quarter and $2.2 billion year-to-date through September 30. PSE&G now expects a revised capital-spending forecast of $3 billion for 2022, up from the planned 2022 capital program of $2.9 billion. The 2022 capital spending program includes transmission investment, the continued rollout of the Gas System Modernization Program II, Energy Strong II, and Clean Energy Future investments, and the Infrastructure Advancement Program focused on our distribution system’s last mile. On the regulatory front, in September of 2022, PSE&G filed a petition with the BPU requesting an accounting order with an effective date of January 1, 2023, to authorize PSE&G to modify its method for calculating pension expense for ratemaking purposes, which would partly reduce future variability in pension expense. Also in September, PSE&G filed a petition with the BPU requesting a $320 million, 9-month extension of its Clean Energy Future - Energy Efficiency program, which would serve to align future program timing with the other New Jersey electric and gas utilities. And in October, PSE&G filed its annual Transmission Formula Rate update with FERC, which increases its annual transmission revenue requirement by $69 million effective January 1, 2023. Now turning to Carbon-Free Infrastructure & Other, which reported a net loss of $285 million or $0.58 per share for the third quarter of 2022, compared with a net loss of $1,953 million, or $3.87 per share in the third quarter impacted by the Fossil sale process. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.15 per share lower in the third quarter of 2021, driven by lower margin related to the Fossil divestiture, lower capacity prices for the remaining nuclear fleet and re-contracting at lower prices. For the third quarter of 2022, electric gross margin declined by $0.29 per share, which includes re-contracting approximately 8 terawatt hours of nuclear generation at a $3 per megawatt hour lower average price. In addition, higher off-system sales at gas operations from heightened commodity volatility added $0.01 per share to total gross margin versus the third quarter of '21 with customers also benefiting from a long standing sharing mechanism in place. Cost comparisons for the third quarter of 2022 improved by $0.09 per share from the year-earlier period, driven by lower O&M, depreciation and interest expense related to the Fossil divestiture. Taxes and other were $0.04 per share favorable versus the third quarter of 2021. During '21, the Solar Source sale was reflected in June, cessation of Fossil depreciation began in August onward as the assets were held-for-sale, and the retirement of PSEG Power’s outstanding debt occurred in October. And accordingly, the majority of the favorable cost comparisons related to the Fossil divestiture occurred in the first half of 2022. Nuclear generating output declined slightly to approximately 8 terawatt hours in the third quarter of 2022, reflecting the ramp down of Hope Creek and Peach Bottom 2 into the fourth quarter refueling outages. The capacity factor of the nuclear fleet for the year-to-date period through September 30 was 94.3%. PSEG forecasts generation output of approximately 7 terawatt hours for the fourth quarter of 2022, and has hedged approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $27 megawatt hour. For '23, PSEG is forecasting nuclear baseload output of 30 to 32 terawatt hours and has hedged 95% to 100% of this output at an average price of $30 a megawatt hour. For 2024, PSEG is forecasting nuclear baseload output of 29 to 31 terawatt hours and has hedged 55% to 60% of this output at an average price of $32 a megawatt hour. As of September 30, 2022, our total available credit capacity was $3.4 billion, including a $1 billion at PSE&G. PSEG Power had net cash collateral postings of $2.2 billion at September 30 related to out-of-the-money hedge positions as a result of higher energy prices and that amount was $1.7 billion through last Friday. The majority of this collateral relates to hedges in place through the end of '23 and is expected to be returned as PSEG Power satisfies its obligations under those contracts, or if market prices decline in the interim. In July of 2022, PSEG repaid a $1.25 billion short-term loan that was due in August. Following the repayment of this term loan, PSEG had outstanding a total of $2 billion of 364 day term loans expiring April, May of 2023 to support power collateral needs. And PSEG Power had outstanding of $1.25 billion term loan expiring March of 25. Combined, these term loans comprise $3.25 billion of variable rate debt. And during September and October, we entered into interest rate swaps from floating to fixed for $1.05 billion of our outstanding term loans, reducing variable rate debt exposure. Moody's recently published updated credit opinions for PSEG, PSE&G and PSEG Power with credit ratings and outlooks remaining unchanged. Regarding the potential headwinds of pension impact on 2023 costs, we continue to monitor several items that will influence the pension calculations when we take the actual measure on December 31. We will assess the net impact of various factors including the decline of financial markets year-to-date, updating the discount rate and interest component, setting the expected return on planned assets for 2023 and the inclusion of the impact of the petition filed with the BPU earlier this year. We will include an estimate of the impacts of pension on our 2023 earnings guidance, which as Ralph said, we will provide at EEI. As Ralph also mentioned earlier, we've narrowed our 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to $3.40 to $3.50 per share, with regulated operations contributing approximately 90% of the total. For the full year, PSE&G's forecast of 2022 net income is narrowed to $1,545 million to $1,575 million, reflecting strong transmission and distribution margin growth in the year-to-date period. 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings for CFIO is now forecasted at $160 million to $180 million, reflecting higher interest costs. PSEG's 2022 earnings guidance excludes financial results from the divested Fossil assets. That concludes our prepared remarks. So we can now open up the line to begin the question-and-answer session.
Carlotta Chan:
Just as a reminder, before we go to Q&A, I'd ask you to state your name and your firm and that we ask you to limit your questions to one and one follow-up, so that we can get to as many of you as possible. Rob, you can start the queue. Thanks.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
Hey, guys. Good morning. Good morning. How are you doing?
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Shar. Good.
Shar Pourreza:
Excellent. So, again, Ralph, as we are kind of getting closer to year-end and we still see continued turbulence in the market, what are some of the moving pieces around offsetting pension headwind? Is it your regulatory filing? Is that enough to cushion some of the drag as we're thinking about '23? And is that kind of a contributing factor for the removal of that 5% to 7% language, which I think caused a lot of investor confusion this morning, even though you just verbally reiterated. Can you just elaborate on this and kind of what you mean by nonlinear for modeling purposes? Thanks.
Ralph LaRossa:
Sure, Shar. So a couple of things. There's -- if you just look at the pension, there were three factors that we've been looking to offset the pension impacts and the headwinds from the market that you referenced. One, the filing that we made at the BPU, I think we've talked about that being around 20% or so the pension impact. We've got the lift out that Dan has been working on, and I'd say that's in the same 20% to 30% range. And then O&M offsets that we've been working on inside the building, which, again, we've talked about for quite some time, we're not going to do anything that's short sighted, but looking for O&M offsets that we possibly can tab that will stay in place, even post rate case when we make that filing in '23, which will be effective in '25. That -- those three pieces there together are kind of what we are looking at to offset the pension. And then the 5% to 7% specifically addressed that, we -- that we always have said is nonlinear. I think we've talked about that quite a bit on prior calls. So we have a test year in '22 that we're going to be filing in '23 and then we expect rates to be effective in '25. So inherent in that will be an uplift, and kind of drives a little bit of what we talked about as being nonlinear.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. But just to reiterate, you have not removed the language around 5% to 7%.
Ralph LaRossa:
We have not. We are committed to the 5% to 7% through '25.
Shar Pourreza:
Perfect.
Ralph LaRossa:
Through '25.
Shar Pourreza:
Great. And then just lastly, I guess, Ralph, as we're sort of thinking about your offshore wind segment and sort of the remaining nuclear assets in a sale or retention scenario. We could see some interesting public marks on both fairly soon from some of your Eastern peers. I mean, Ralph, you've been in the helm now for a few months. So you're ready to go. I mean what's your latest thinking here? Are you waiting for public signals to decide what you want to do and where the value is? Is the Analyst Day, the right podium to announce any strategic paths? If any, I guess, how are you sort of thinking about the non-distribution business as you've taken your seat, right?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, so Shar, split those into two pieces, right. First, first of all, wind standpoint that we’ve been pretty uneven. We've mentioned it in my prepared remarks that we are looking at FID on the -- on Ocean Wind 1, that's the project in New Jersey. So one of the things we're looking at there is where the costs come in, and where we finally -- what that project looks like from an investment standpoint, that's pretty straightforward. And then for our Skipjack and other projects, we're certainly looking at what might be out there from a mark, as you said, whether it's from some of our peers, or for some other entity. So there's -- I think the offshore wind is pretty straightforward. Transmission, obviously, as we talked about, again, very happy to see what the BPU did, might not seem to make a lot of sense when I say that, but the BPU kind of kicking the can and moving. That decision later is the right thing to do from a -- for the ratepayers in New Jersey. There's some uncertainty around the tax treatment of the copper that will be in the water. And so I think what they did there made a ton of sense, and just focus onshore for the time being. So that kind of ties together everything from a offshore standpoint. Then from a nuclear standpoint, look, this may not be the most popular. But I think again, you still need more and more time there. There's a lot of details to be worked out in the treasury rates. When those are worked out and we see some marks in the marketplace, we should be in a very good position to tell whether or not as my predecessor Ralph Izzo said multiple times, there's whether or not we're the natural owners.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Perfect. Congrats, Ralph on your first earnings call. And we'll see you guys in a couple of weeks.
Ralph LaRossa:
Looking forward to it.
Dan Cregg:
See you, Shar.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, David.
David Arcaro:
Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Maybe on the pension first, I think you can clarify or give a little bit more color around the lift out approach that that you mentioned could be pursued for a portion of the pension. And I was just curious if there are any other regulatory approaches that could be pursued as kind of a follow-on to what you've already requested with the BPU?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, so Dan is going to give you more in a lift out. Just the other obvious regulatory solution we could is when we file for the rate cases to put in a pension tracker, and at this point, we fully expect to be doing that in our rate filing, but I will give Dan the mic to talk a little more about the lift out.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And David really there's -- I think the easiest way to think about that is just if the pension is giving us some variability within results, then having it be smaller would give us less variability. And in that same vein, we continue to have a pension that is well funded. Yet we have seen assets decline as I think every pension fund in the country have, but we've also seen discount rates come down. And as they come down in parallel, the fund stays pretty well funded. But you can do a lift out, which essentially would be taking some of the assets and taking some of the obligations and moving them to an appropriate creditworthy entity and have that be housed elsewhere. And it just essentially would shrink the size of the pension. We are beginning down a path of that exploration. And I think to the extent that we find that to be a successful way to go, we would inform you at that time, but it's also would have the effect of just basically shrinking the overall pension and therefore, the overall variability of it. So I think that's the way to think about it, and we'll continue to keep you posted as we continue to go down that path.
David Arcaro:
Okay, got it. Great. That's helpful. And then, Ralph, you mentioned a little bit on the offshore wind transmission opportunity, but I was just curious given maybe what you saw with the BPU's decisions and elections within this first solicitation and how the other bidders approached it. Any thoughts on how you might look at future opportunities, whether you still think you can be competitive and how you might respond in terms of setting up other future project designs for [indiscernible]?
Ralph LaRossa:
Sure. So the selection that the BPU made was, again, focused onshore, right? And I'd like to just think about the state, North Central and South, the southern part of New Jersey has a lot of, what I'll call, takeaway capability already on a transmission system because we had Oyster Creek retire and Bill England retire in the southern part of the state. So that onshore transmission system was pretty well set up for -- to take onshore -- offshore generation. The northern part of the state is also has a pretty robust transmission system because a lot of the work that we've done at PSEG over the past 10 years, 15 years after we started to get approval from projects after the 2003 blackout. So then that kind of left the central part of the state and that project that was approved for JCP&L's Larrabee substation and again, very consistent with the need to have to take more takeaway ability from the Shoreline into New Jersey. So not a lot of learned from that. That was all the information that we had and we would have expected to be in place. I think what we've all learned, both us and our competitors, is what others are thinking about and how they're both from a financial standpoint, but also from an engineering standpoint, how they were going to design the offshore grid. We think our Mesh network is absolutely the most resilient and most robust. We are very proud of that design, keep the lines in and we are very unique in how we did that. And for all 11,000 megawatts, I'm absolutely convinced that you need that robust solution to be in place. So I think we all learn from each other and the next set of bids will be more robust as a result of that. So looking forward to it. But I am confident that our design is a really good design and will meet the reliability and resiliency to state demands.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Appreciate that. Thanks so much.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for the time and the opportunity. Hope you guys are well.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Looking forward to seeing you guys soon. Hey, thank you. Just following up on Shar's question here, if I can. Just to break down your expectation for an update versus your reaffirmation of the '22 through '25, 5% to 7%, is the -- is what you're prepared to disclose in the coming weeks more around rolling that forward here? Are we talking about keeping '22 as the baseline? I know because of this nonlinearity, I think folks going to be very focused on this piece. Or is this about including the nonutility businesses as well within the EPS guide [ph]? Can you give us a little bit more of a flavor of how you're thinking about that relative to what you just reaffirmed on the call here?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. Well, Julien, I won't front run what we're going to do in EEI much, but I will tell you that we think about the business is the business we have in front of us at the moment, and we'll look at it from that direction. We'll give you '23 guidance, and then we will extend the guidance beyond that. So that's the way we are thinking about it and the way you should be thinking about it and be prepared for EEI.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And just to clarify, would that be based off of '23? And then also, are you assuming 2024 here has the PTC in effect versus the hedge in terms of an uplift?
Ralph LaRossa:
Well, so think about what you just asked me from a PTC and a hedge standpoint, right, that exactly is the core issue that I was raising earlier, which is treasury regs and how that's going to come out, right? So we will pick one of those and give you some guidance based upon that. And for '22, '23, Julien, you can use '21 as the baseline, right? You have all that data. So whatever CAGR you decide to use going forward, but we will talk to you about '23 and we will talk to you about future years.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay. But you feel covered off of using baseline of '21 and '22 still?
Ralph LaRossa:
You can use '20 or go back to '19, I'll go back and however you want to go, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I love it. I love it.
Ralph LaRossa:
We will give you the CAGR -- we will give you the CAGR going forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Wonderful. Thank you, guys very much. See you then. Good luck.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi, Nick.
Nicholas Campanella:
Hey. Thanks -- hey, how are you? Thanks so much for taking the questions. I just wanted to ask on the hedges. I think your hedge percentages are unchanged for '24. So I guess my question here is just why not do more? Can you just give us an update on your general hedging strategy for the nuclear assets, please?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. And I'm going to ask Dan to give you a little more color on this. But again, I will point everyone back to the regs that are needed out of treasury and some of the guidance there. So there's -- it's a balance as to how we are going to be looking at this both from a PTC standpoint, and frankly, our ZEC [ph] process and everything in between. So Dan, if you want to give a little more?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think, Nick, if you take a look at 2022, 2023, essentially fully hedged for those years and really where there's some open is into those years where the PTC comes about. And so Ralph's exactly right, trying to make sure that we understand the backdrop of the PTC is going to be important. I'd say that by the same token, we have seen some decline in markets in the near-term, but those declines really have been mostly focused on '22 and '23, and we've seen the back end hold up fairly well. So we are, I'd say, within the same ranges that we've provided. It doesn't mean we are in exactly the same place. But I think keeping an eye on what happens down in treasury and as well as keeping an eye on markets is how we are approaching things as we go forward.
Nicholas Campanella:
Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot. So I guess just on the lift out as it pertains to the pension, I think you said potentially can mitigate 20% to 30% of the impact. Is that something that we should have clarity on by year-end? Or is that something that you're continuing to work through maybe it's more of an Analyst Day item? And then just as I think about transacting on that lift out and the overall contribution to EPS, is it a headwind, like i.e., a step down headwind to the 5 to 7 CAGR? Or is it just one -- more one-time in nature and reduces volatility going forward? Just trying to think through like how a decision like that could impact '23 and '24? Thanks.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So probably somewhere -- I'd say Analyst Day is probably the right approximate time for that. It's going to depend upon how our analysis has gone on for us to give you a little bit more detail about it. And I think that at the highest level, one of the ways to think about what happens from the pension perspective is you determine an estimated return on your assets and you have a discount rate for your liabilities. And those comparisons -- and that gap really determines what you see coming out of it. So if you assume that you're going to earn north of the discount rate than a smaller pension while having less volatility would also have less of a contribution. We would certainly include that in whatever guidance we were to give. But I think as we've seen interest rates come up, we've seen discount rates come up, there's not a whole lot of daylight between those two. So whatever we give you will be based upon our plans at the time and our calculations at the time. And I think it's probably around Analyst Day when we will be able to firm that up for you.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, that would be my expectation that could be around Analyst Day.
Nicholas Campanella:
All right. Thanks so much. Really appreciate it. See you in a few weeks there.
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for giving me time here. Hey, just on the pension discussion, can you remind us what the regulated versus non-regulated mix of pension is? Is it still around 80% regulated toward pension?
Dan Cregg:
It's closer to 70, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. 70%. And so when we think about the lift out, are we thinking -- I'm just trying to see the 20 -- is it -- could you lift out the regulated portion of the pension too? Or is it just the non-regulated portion? I'm just wondering if there's any state opposition or regulatory opposition to lifting out the regulated portion of the pension?
Ralph LaRossa:
Durgesh, I think it would be premature for us to get into that level of detail at this point. So some work to be done. And again, I think our expectation and try to set for you is that we will have those kind of details at Analyst Day.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thanks, Durgesh.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi. Good morning.
Ralph LaRossa:
Good morning, Jeremy.
Dan Cregg:
How are you?
Jeremy Tonet:
Good. Just wanted to start off with offshore wind, if I could here. How do you view offshore risk -- offshore wind risk currently, particularly given some of the high-profile development or other projects that have kind of implied a degradation of returns in this inflationary environment?
Ralph LaRossa:
Jeremy, I think, look, where these projects are no different from some of the other projects that you've been reading about. But we have been steadfast in that front running our partner who has 75% stake in this so, and Ørsted had their call coming up in the future, and I will let them talk to that level of the detail. But certainly at a very high-level what you've been seeing with others is consistent with what we've been seeing with our projects here.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That makes sense there. And I was just wondering as it relates to power, if you could walk us through the return of your collateral postings on power hedges. And is it kind of fair to think of these financings as the incremental drag in the current environment? And are there any kind of offsets looking versus that?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think -- if you think about our overall hedging picture at our percent hedge, 2022 is mostly behind us, 2023 is where most of the hedges are. So you would see most of that collateral come back as we go through 2023. And so as that cash comes back to us, frankly, there's two ways that it could. You could see market moves, which could move it up or down. But over time, as you deliver on those contracts, you would see that coming back to you. And so frankly, what that's going to do is it's going to lessen the overall cash needs that we have and ultimately reduce some of those borrowings. And so as that cash comes back, you can almost think about it as just taking out those borrowings over time.
Ralph LaRossa:
And if you look at the -- like the second to last paragraph in our release, we've dropped from $2.2 billion to $1.7 billion, and that's exactly a reflection of the moves in the market over that time frame that's listed there since the end of September into the end of October. So Dan's explanation is completely aligned with what we have there in that release.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Jeremy.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks and Ralph, congratulations on your first call.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Steve. Good to have you on.
Steve Fleishman:
I've been looking forward to this for a long time, yes. So just -- so obviously, you said you're going to give '23 guidance at EEI and then you've reaffirmed the 5% to 7% to '25. Is there -- are you going to give some kind of path of how you go from whatever you give to '23 to get to that end game, 5% to 7% in '25, so we have kind of a view with that?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, we absolutely will.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. That would be very helpful. And then secondly, given the pension impact in '23 as well as the kind of going into the rate case test year, is it fair to assume that you maybe are kind of under earning in 2023 …
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I wouldn’t …
Steve Fleishman:
… as you going with this rate case?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, Steve, I don't usually like to -- if you point to that, but I would not make an assumption one way or the other on that about how we're entering that test year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Lastly, just on nuclear, Ralph, you've talked about the kind of better visibility of nuclear, but also trying to kind of reduce volatility. Obviously, at the floor price, super visible and a lot of certainty. But at higher prices, in theory, there is great news, great returns, but more variability. Just any thoughts on how that fits into your framework that you've talked about?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. No, 100%. I think, look, a lot of that gets back to the hedging strategy and what makes sense from a treasury rate standpoint. So I think we need to see that visibility, understand what the potential volatility is down the road and then also look at what growth we potentially have from that business and put all three of those pieces together and determine whether or not it fits. And that's -- it's exactly what we've been talking about, and it's not going to happen tomorrow, but we need those regs in place. We need to understand what those growth opportunities are in and we need to see what these marks are.
Steve Fleishman:
Growth being stuff like hydrogen, you mean or something else?
Ralph LaRossa:
You've got -- we've talked a little bit about some growth opportunities that we now have in front of us because the revenue stream is more certain, right? So simple things like fuel cycles. There's a couple of those things that are out there as well that we've mentioned in the past, we would not have pursued based upon a 3-year ZEC cycle. But now with a much longer runway out of the PTC, we have those opportunities in front of us.
Steve Fleishman:
Got it. Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So, Steve, I mean, I think implied in your question is you do have that floor, which is helpful from a variability standpoint if you're above it. You're happy to be above it because you had a higher value location. And then the challenge really just is trying to manage whatever variability does happen there. But frankly, that's a -- it's a better place to be, obviously, if you're above that floor, right?
Steve Fleishman:
Agree. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
Thanks for taking my question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Hi. When you think back to the offshore winds discussion, if you weren't to go forward with that or if you were to sell out of that, how do you think about capital allocation over the next 4 to 5 years?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think, frankly, Travis, it's -- right now, that is one of the options that's there. I think we've talked a little bit about the other side of offshore wind, which could be some transmission work. And we've referenced that as being somewhere in the $2 billion to $7 billion range for our 50-50 partnership. And so there is still a degree of capital that, I think and as Ralph alluded to before, with the state's target of 11,000 megawatts, we will still continue to look for whether that solution does make some sense. Beyond that, predominantly, capital would be going to the utility part of the business. I think there continues to be areas to invest within the utility, and that would be the number one place where we deploy capital.
Ralph LaRossa:
And just again, we are still hopeful on that offshore transmission and a full Mesh network. I think there's an opportunity there in addition to the core utility activities. And all of this, though, as we've been kind of teeing up, will come together at the investor conference.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And I think you answered my second question, but on your update on the opportunity set in terms of dollars for that transmission, the offshore-related transmission, is that the $2 billion to $7 billion?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, I mean there's -- yes, again, just based upon the selection that was made by the BPU of just focused on the onshore portions of work that was required that a large part of that opportunity set is still in front of us.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And so that would be both the onshore and the, say, under the sea [multiple speakers]?
Ralph LaRossa:
Most of what's needed and most of what we were in our bids were offshore. There's a little piece of onshore that work that could be done up in the northern part of the state, as I kind of laid out earlier kind of think about those three doors or entry points into New Jersey for offshore wind. The largest amount of work that was needed was in the central part of the state, in Jersey Central Power & Light territory, but a little bit for us up in the North, if that entry point is selected.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Perfect. Thanks so much.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Travis.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Dan Cregg:
Hey, Paul.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
So just -- I apologize if I missed it, but the BPU order on the pension accounting, when are you expecting them to act on that?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. We -- our petition had requested a response by year-end. We have some discovery and so that there's activity that has gone on, on it, but they will act on their own time. But our request was to see if we could get that in place by year-end. And probably as importantly, to have it be effective year-end. So there's potential if we get something modestly after that, that it could still be effective as of year-end, but that was the anticipation and that's where things stand.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then on the wind, given what you're saying about the economics and how they might be similar to others, how should we think about FID sort of the steps that we should be looking out for here in terms of the potential for asking for a change in the contract? Or would there actually be rebidding? Or should we think about -- I mean, just sort of how should we think about the time line associated with your review process and the FID thing, given the changed economics?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes. So, Paul, again, our FID decision is our decision to invest in the joint venture. The joint ventures decision as to whether or not they want to talk to the state or customers, or however they want to do that, that's with the joint venture. And I leave that to our partners Ørsted to talk about if they so choose.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. But I guess what I'm wondering is, it would seem to me that your decision would be dependent upon the JV's actions and the response to the JV's actions. Do you follow what I'm saying? I thought [multiple speakers].
Ralph LaRossa:
[Indiscernible] might be independent, right? And that's the point I wanted to make to you. We could go in either direction.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Ralph LaRossa:
And they're not dependent upon each other, whether it's changes in the revenue or changes in the expenses. One of those things could impact our decision, but I would also tell you that they may not.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just what's the timing that we should think about with respect to the FID decision?
Ralph LaRossa:
Yes, there's no set time and we've talked about that on a number of prior calls. That is a decision that joint venture will make based upon what contracts they choose to enter into and in what time line. So again, we've left that to the majority owner to speak to. But there is no set time line in any of our contracts as next date, there will be a decision.
Dan Cregg:
It's not a calendar date, Paul. It's just really FID moves you to the construction phase of the project. And so it's when things are ready to move to that phase.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks so much.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Ralph LaRossa:
Hey, Ryan.
Ryan Levine:
Good morning. Hi, everybody and thanks for taking my question. Given the EPS growth guidance through 2025, the new PTC through 2032 and to be made decision around transacting the nuclear decision, how are you thinking about managing the 2025 Power debt maturities to be able to continue your EPS growth rate under the various scenarios?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think, Ryan, it will depend upon overall cash needs and overall revenue picture. I mean we would determine what the best magnitude of debt would be at that entity based upon what that -- the overall economics that can be supported there and what makes sense there. So we don't have an absolute number, but we do have in place is a 3-year term loan that sits at Power and runs to '25 and that's what was put in place after the sale of Fossil. And so as we get a little closer to that date, we will be looking at all that to make that determination.
Ryan Levine:
Is there any consideration to amend and extend the duration to be able to provide more earnings smoothness or keep things more visible?
Dan Cregg:
The duration of the debt?
Ryan Levine:
Yes.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. We will do what makes sense as we approach that maturity or even before if it makes sense to do it before. But there's -- that will come as we step towards that maturity time frame.
Ryan Levine:
I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. LaRossa for closing comments.
Ralph LaRossa:
Okay. Thanks. Well, first of all, thank you for participating in the first call that I've had. I was -- I appreciate the interest and the opportunity to talk to all of you. I also just want to reiterate in this forum, my thanks to our Board and to my predecessor, Ralph Izzo for this opportunity. I am internally grateful and humbled by this -- what's in front of us, but at the same time, excited and look forward to continuing the conversations and providing more clarity and more a little bit about what we are trying to do to remove some of the volatility that has been a concern for some of you at EEI. So I can't wait to have those conversations. And again, I appreciate you all calling in.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Kyle and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Today's Conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode . As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, August 2, 2022, and will be available for reply as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at http://investor.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Kyle. Good morning, everyone. PSEG's second quarter 2022 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our IR Web site located at www.investor.pseg.com, and on 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differs from net loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR Web site and in today's earnings material. On today's call are Ralph Izzo, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG; Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. And following their prepared remarks, Ralph LaRossa, currently our Chief Operating Officer and our next CEO, will join Ralph and Dan to take your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for a review of PSEG second quarter 2022 results. For the second quarter, PSEG reported net income of $131 million or $0.26 per share compared to a net loss of $177 million or $0.35 per share in the second quarter of 2021. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of '22 were $320 million or $0.64 per share compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $356 million or $0.70 per share in 2021 second quarter. And just a reminder and I'll repeat this several times throughout this call that the second quarter 2021 included the results from our divested Fossil assets and Solar Source. PSEG is on track to achieve our 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 per share based on results through the first six months of 2022. This is largely driven by ongoing rate based growth from regulated investments and lower costs due to the already mentioned sale of generation assets on the carbon free infrastructure side of the business. Utility earnings for the first half of 2022 are up 4% over the last year. At carbon free infrastructure, the year-over-year comparisons are skewed by our asset sales. Also, the majority of 2022’s earnings at the carbon free infrastructure and other side of the business have been realized as of June 30th. So for the balance of 2022, the utility will continue to be the main driver of PSEG's growth profile, which results squarely within our guidance range. I'm very encouraged by the revised climate compromise contained in the proposed Inflation Reduction Act that includes production tax credit provisions for existing nuclear and new offshore wind resources. We hope to see it move on to the Senate's floor this week, but more on that later. I know many of you have been following the potential for an impact to our pension results in 2023 due to the significant declines in equity and fixed income markets since the beginning of the year. Should market conditions remain stressed on our December 31st measurement date, we would anticipate noncash pension headwinds related to these market declines. December 31st is the single date that will determine the pension impact for 2023. So instead of continually updating a number as our dynamic market changes on a daily basis, we would rather simply assure you that in the interim we are actively developing plants to counteract the potential near term headwinds to the extent they remain at year end. I want to emphasize that our pension remains very well funded and does not, I repeat, does not require any cash contributions for the foreseeable future. From a funding perspective, our pensions were approximately 95% funded at year end 2021, and the increase in the discount rate year-to-date has kept the funding ratio in a comparable place to year end. Rest assured that we will work tirelessly to mitigate the potential future headwinds including pension, supply chain and general inflationary pressures. I hope you will see through these near term challenges and recognize what we see that the underlying fundamental utility growth story of PSE&G remains intact, and that our valuation will reflect the improved business mix and overall derisking that continues, all of which gives us the confidence to reiterate our multiyear 5% to 7% EPS CAGR from the midpoint of 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance to 2025. We remain focused on improving our system reliability and resiliency, further derisking the business overall and maximizing affordability for our customers. The statewide moratorium on shutoffs for residential electric and gas service was lifted in mid-March 2022 and collections and shutoffs have since restarted. However, New Jersey did passed legislation after the moratorium ended that provided protection from shutoffs to customers who applied for payment assistance programs by June 15th of '22. We applicants for assistance are protected from shutoffs while awaiting their application determination. As a result, PSE&G continues to experience higher accounts receivable aging, which we expect will take the next several years to reset to historical levels. PSE&G's electric distribution bad debt expense is recoverable through its societal benefits clause mechanism and has deferred as incremental gas distribution bad debt expense, as well as other incremental COVID-19 costs to future recovery, which will likely take place in our next distribution base rate case. Our regulatory framework in New Jersey continues to be constructive. Working with the BPU staff and Rate Counsel, we reached the settlement to begin work this quarter on the infrastructure advancement program. The BPU approved the settlement in June. And over the next four years, we will invest $500 million to extend reliability improvements, inclusive of the last mile of our distribution system as we prepare the grid for the rapid transition to electric vehicles and enable a greater integration of renewable energy resources. Turning to our efforts on the environmental, social and governance or ESG front, we are continuing our internal preparations to finalize company wide emission reduction goals, and we will be submitting those targets to the United Nations backed Science Based Targets initiative for validation that they are in fact consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius or less. We have until September of 2023 to finalize and submit our targets for validation, although we're aiming to present our pathways before that, which will address all three scopes of PSEG's emissions reduction goals. Let me turn now to commodity markets, where we've seen a continued increase in electric and natural gas prices during the second quarter. And although some PJM prices have moderated recently, prices remain at high levels. With gas and electricity supply costs, which are a pass through at PSE&G, comprising approximately 40% to 45% of a typical residential gas and electric bill, we are keenly focused on controlling costs to minimize the impact of rising commodity costs on these customer bills and maximizing affordability. On the electric side, PSE&G contracts for its default BGS, basic generation service, as we often refer to it, requirements on a three year rolling basis, and each year, one third of the load is procured for a three year period. New BGS rates went into effect June 1st. And despite what I just said a moment ago, but due to a decline in actual versus assumed capacity costs, electricity bills actually declined. On the gas side, PSE&G is permitted to recover the cost of hedging up to 80% or roughly 115 Bcf of its annual residential requirements through the BGSS tariff. We recently filed for our anticipated BGSS costs to go into effect in rates before the upcoming winter season that will reflect current market prices at the time and be trued up for actual costs over subsequent time periods. On the nuclear side of the business, we remain fully hedged in 2022 and 2023 and a little more than half hedged in 2024. With our ratable base load hedging program in effect, we should begin to see higher prices layer in as we continue to incrementally sell power forward into 2024 and 2025 assuming that prices remain at today's higher levels. The uncertainty of power prices highlights the critical need for longer revenue visibility to safeguard the economic viability of existing nuclear plants, which are increasingly recognized as a irreplaceable source of carbon free domestic energy supply. I might add, this is also taking place at the international level in terms of the recognition as an irreplaceable source of carbon free energy supply. We continue to observe a positive shift in public sentiment and support preserving these nuclear plants. Most recently as part of what I mentioned before, the proposed inflation Reduction Act of 2022, as our country invests in energy security and climate change solutions, which can help to stabilize rising electricity prices. This proposed legislation agreed to last Thursday by Senate Manchin and Schumer includes the nuclear production tax credit we have advocated for over the last two years, and would be in effect from January 24 through 2032. This pricing floor for nuclear generation squarely addresses our need for a longer term framework within which we can continue to own and operate our fleet with extended revenue visibility beyond the current three year zero emission certificate cycle. The bill also includes transitioning to a technology neutral ITC, PTC beginning in 2025 for new carbon free resources. And there is a 15% corporate minimum tax on net book income that would impact us and our customers. We are analyzing all aspects of the bill, including the many provisions that will help address climate change. We are hopeful that these provisions will pass Congress. Senate Majority Leader Schumer indicated his intention to bring the bill to the Senate floor this week. But there is a review process involving the Senate parliamentarian that could take a week by itself to complete. If the Senate is able to approve the measure, the House would likely return from the August recess to vote on it. In the meantime, we continue to have policy level discussions with New Jersey state legislators who are currently in summer recess to discuss a longer duration alternative to the current zero emission certificate framework for nuclear should the price floor contained in the reconciliation bill for prove elusive. Now let me turn to an update on our offshore wind opportunities, which we continue to advance on a number of fronts. On the transmission partnership, Coastal Wind Link, the timing of New Jersey's decision on its state agreement approach to transmission offshore is still expected this October. On Ocean Wind 1, development efforts are ongoing as we approach the upcoming FID date in the coming months, while the Bureau of Motion Energy Management will continue public hearings on the draft environmental impact statement later this summer. As related to the opportunity to co-invest with Ørsted, we continue to have conversations on a variety of fronts, and in fact, due diligence continues in earnest in this regard. As I step down from my CEO duties on September 1st, PSEG is well positioned to enter its 120th year of serving New Jersey with essential energy services that help to power the economic engine of the state and advance its energy policy leadership. In my role as Executive Chair of the Board through the end of '22, I will continue to advocate on behalf of PSEG in key policy arenas. Now later, you'll hear from Ralph LaRossa, and I must say he is the most well prepared, ready CEO elect in the history of our company. And with Ralph at the helm, PSEG will further advance its powering progress vision of a future where people use less energy and it's cleaner, safer and delivered more reliably than ever. PSEG's dedicated workforce will continue the public service heritage that recently earned us the 2022 Edison Award from The Edison Electric Institute, the Electric Utilities highest industry honor and recognition of PSEG's infrastructure monetization programs focused on protecting our customers and communities from extreme weather conditions. I think that's our second Edison award in the last 10 or 12 years or so. I will now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results. Then Dan, Ralf and I will be available for your questions.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned, for the second quarter of 2022, PSEG reported net income of $0.26 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.64 per share. We've provided you with information on Slides 9 and 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the second quarter and year-to-date periods ended June 30th. Slides 10 and 12 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and first half 2022 over first half 2021 and non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. We'll start with PSE&G, whose second quarter net income was relatively flat compared to the second quarter of 2021, reflecting rate base additions from our investment programs and our gas system monetization, Energy Strong programs and the implementation of the SIP, which was largely offset by IRLM in the quarter, much of which was timing related. Compared to the second quarter 2021, transmission margin was flat as growth in rate base and other positive adjustments were offset by the August 2021 implementation of a new transmission formula rate, including our base return on equity moving to 9.9% plus the 50 basis point add. For distribution, gas margin improved $0.02 per share over the second quarter of 2021, reflecting the scheduled recovery of investments made under GSMP and a true-up from the SIP. Electric margin rose $0.02 per share compared to the second quarter of 2021, driven by the scheduled recovery of Energy Strong 2 investments and the SIP. Other margin primarily related to service also added $0.01 per share compared to the second quarter of 2021. O&M expense was $0.04 per share unfavorable compared with the second quarter 2021, reflecting higher costs from the resumption of customer settlement proceedings as courts reopened and higher electric operation expense and gas tariff work. Interest expense was $0.01 per share unfavorable, reflecting higher investment. In addition, the impact of PSEG's $500 million share repurchase program had a $0.01 per share benefit on second quarter 2022 results. Flow through taxes and other items had a net unfavorable impact of $0.01 per share compared to the second quarter of 2021, driven by the use of an annual effective tax rate that will reverse over the remainder of the year. Summer weather during the second quarter of 2022, measured by the temperature humidity index, was warmer than normal but cooler than temperatures during the second quarter of 2021. With the SIP in effect, variations in weather, positive or negative, have a limited impact on electric and gas margins, while enabling the widespread adoption of PSE&G's energy efficiency program. For the trailing 12 months ended June 30th, weather normalized electric and gas sales reflected lower residential sales, both electric and gas lower by approximately 3% and higher commercial and industrial sales, higher by 2% and 3%, respectively as more people return to work outside the home. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers remain positive by approximately 1% over the trailing 12 month period. PSE&G invested approximately $741 million during the second quarter and approximately $1.4 billion year-to-date through June 30th, and we are on track to execute our planned 2022 capital investment program of $2.9 billion. The 2022 capital spending program includes infrastructure upgrades to transmission and distribution facilities, as well as the continued rollout of the Clean Energy Future investments in energy efficiency, energy cloud and smart meters, electric vehicle charging infrastructure and the new of investments that will begin this quarter. PSE&G's forecast of net income for 2022 is unchanged at $1.510 billion to $1.560 billion. Moving on to carbon-free infrastructure and other, where we reported a net loss of $174 million or $0.35 per share for the second quarter of 2022, driven by our nuclear decommissioning trust and mark-to-market impacts and non-GAAP operating earnings of $15 million or $0.03 per share. This compares to a second quarter 2021 net loss of $486 million and non-GAAP operating earnings of $47 million, which included the results of the divested fossil and solar assets. For the second quarter of 2022, electric gross margin declined by $0.25 per share, primarily due to the sale of the 6,750-megawatt Fossil portfolio this past February, and the sale of the Solar Source portfolio in June of '21. This reduction in gross margin includes recontracting approximately 8 terawatt hours of nuclear generation at a $3 per megawatt hour lower average price. In addition, ZECs added $0.01 per share due to the absence of the Hope Creek refueling outage in the year earlier quarter. Separately, lower margins at gas operations resulted in a $0.01 decline in gross margin versus the second quarter of 2021. Year-over-year, second quarter cost comparisons were better by $0.22 per share due to the divestitures, driven by lower O&M depreciation and interest expense that will mainly benefit first half 2022 results. You will recall the third and fourth quarters of 2021 reflected the solar source sale in June, the cessation of fossil depreciation from August onward, and the retirement of PSEG Power's outstanding debt in October. Current activity was a $0.01 per share unfavorable compared with the second quarter of 2021 as a result of higher interest expense, and taxes and other were $0.01 unfavorable compared to the second quarter of last year. Nuclear generating output increased by over 3.7% to 7.5 terawatt hours in the second quarter of 2022, reflecting the absence of a refueling outage at Hope Creek in the year earlier quarter. The capacity factor for the nuclear fleet for the year-to-date period through June 30th was 95.1%. PSEG is forecasting generation output of 14 to 16 terawatt hours for the remaining two quarters of 2022, and is hedged approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $28 per megawatt hour. For 2023, we're forecasting nuclear baseload outlook of 30 to 32 terawatt hours with 95% to 100% hedged at an average price of $31 per megawatt hour. And for 2024, we're forecasting nuclear baseload output of 29 to 31 terawatt hours, which is 55% to 60% hedged at an average price of $32 per megawatt hour. The forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for carbon-free infrastructure and other is unchanged at $170 million to $220 million. And this guidance for 2022 excludes results related to the Fossil assets that were sold in February of this year. With respect to recent financing activity and collateral postings, PSEG remains on solid financial footing. As of June 30th, the PSEG money pool, including PSEG and Power, had available liquidity, including cash on hand of $3.7 billion. In April and May of 2022, we entered into a 364 day variable rate term loan agreement totaling $2 billion. Also in the quarter, Power entered into two $100 million letter of credit facilities expiring April '24 and April '25 respectively. And in July of ‘22 PSEG repaid a $1.25 billion short term loan that was due later this month. Our net cash collateral postings of $2.5 billion at June 30th related to out-of-the-money hedge positions as energy prices rose during the second quarter of 2022. Collateral postings have increased subsequent to June 30th and at the end of July, Power had net collateral postings of approximately $2.5 billion. Most of this collateral is associated with hedges in place through the end of 2023, and is expected to be returned to PSEG Power once it satisfies its obligations under those contracts, or sooner if market prices decline in the interim. As Ralph mentioned, we are reaffirming PSEG's 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 per share, with regulated operations contributing approximately 90% of the total. For the full year of 2022, PSE&G's net income is forecasted at $1.51 billion to $1.56 billion, $1.51 billion to $1.56 billion. The non-GAAP operating earnings for CFIO is forecasted at $170 million to $220 million. PSEG's 2022 earnings guidance excludes financial results from the divested fossil assets and includes an additional interest expense related to recent financings. Looking beyond 2022, regarding the pension item Ralph referenced earlier. Slide 19 in the webcast deck highlights some pension disclosure contained in our current 10-K annual report. We outlined several items that will influence the pension impact in 2023, including updating the discount rate and interest costs, setting the expected return on planned assets for 2023, calculating the actual gain or loss on the funds and determine the fair value of the funds at year end. As many of you know, we do not smooth, we apply the fair value of the fund balances to next year's expected return. As such, asset values and discount rate on December 31st will determine the impacts for next year. Lastly, we've completed our $500 million share repurchase through open market purchases at an accelerated share repurchase program in May of 2022. That concludes our prepared remarks. And with this being Ralph's last earnings call as CEO, I'll give him an opportunity to make some closing remarks before taking your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
No. Actually, Dan, I think I'll wait until later, sorry about that. Why don't we go right to the questions, Kyle?
Operator:
The first question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
So Ralph, let me just, if it's okay, start on the pension side. Can we maybe just get a little bit more details on the potential offsets that you're sort of thinking about implementing? I mean everyone has estimates out there on what the drag could be, so whether it's $0.20, $0.30, $0.40, whatever it ends up being. Do you feel like you could offset that kind of a drag and how does that potentially factor into a rate case filing in '23?
Ralph Izzo:
So Shar, of course, we like to think of the fact that we're always mindful of our O&M expense. But you can always do more, there's a cost versus quality consideration that we'll have to take into account. So there's no doubt we can offset some of the headwinds. We're just not going to get into a conversation today about how easy it is to offset $0.05 versus $0.30 versus $0.20. And believe me, we've seen numbers dance around that whole range over the past six years. And we're not going to do anything that compromises the long term service quality of the customers. We're going to look at every part of our cost structure to see what is a good short term decision, what's the good long term decision. And then, of course, as you correctly pointed out, the utility does have a rate case that starts January 1, 2024. So we view this as a short term headwind that's not quantifiable on August 2nd and can only be quantified on December 31st, but we're looking at a whole litany of potential cost reductions, and each one of them comes with some risk. And we'll draw the line where we feel comfortable that the short term risks are manageable, but we do nothing to jeopardize the long term health of the company. I know that's not a quantitative answer to your question. But I think it's just going to drive people crazy to every day look at what markets are doing and what congressional leader is visiting, what island nation and what that's doing to equity markets and things that are simply not within our control over the next few months.
Shar Pourreza:
And then just, Ralph, on the strategy side with generation sort of with the inflation reduction not gaining traction. There's obviously improved visibility on nuclear, which is one of the things you mentioned would be a trigger point potentially to assess whether you want the assets within the portfolio or not, so any updates there. And then just around offshore wind, there's obviously some very healthy valuation marks on the land lease values, with your neighbor looking to provide another maybe data point soon. Any thoughts there on whether you would reassess value here as well? So I guess, how are you thinking about potential trigger points to exit the remaining generation business you have?
Ralph Izzo:
I think you hit the nail on the head in terms of important data points, Shar, coming in. Look, if the inflation reduction Act passes as is proposed, there are some technical amendments that we're working with bill sponsors to make sure are considered because of some language that is inconsistent with what people have told us they're trying to achieve. I mean you basically have nuclear energy price of $44 a megawatt hour, give or take a few pennies as long as power prices in the market don't drop below $25, and as long as power prices in the market don't go above $44. So the nuclear assets begin, to me at least, to look a lot like a rate base rate of return and piece of infrastructure with a steady and attractive cash flow that makes them economically viable. Now there's a whole lot of wood that needs to be chopped between now and making that something that President Biden puts his pen to. And then there's the need to see what investor reaction will be, if it's interpreted the same way that we interpret it, which is, as I said, essentially a very predictable earnings stream with a very solid cash flow generation that I think serves the state of New Jersey very well, serves the company very well, serves the planet very well. On offshore wind, we do have an important data point coming up, and you alluded to it. There is another company that is in a strategic review process and we'll carefully monitor the outcome of that while pursuing with all the due diligence efforts as I spoke about before from Coastal Wind Link to Ocean Wind 1 and some other possible opportunities with Ørsted. Look, it should be obvious to everyone. New Jersey is going to build 7.5 gigawatts of offshore wind. I think half a dozen states are going to build 30 gigawatts of offshore wind. That's going to have a significant impact on tower markets, bill headroom and opportunities to grow earnings per share for companies. So it's something that we want to make sure we are taking a long view in terms of the role we should or shouldn't play in that. So more to follow and some of it we’ll be following in the next few months.
Shar Pourreza:
What was the test year for the rate case that you guys are going to file, is it '23…
Ralph Izzo:
July of '23 to June '24, so it does include ‘23 -- it gets filed on January 1 of '24.
Operator:
Our next question is from Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse.
Nick Campanella:
Just acknowledging that you kind of -- you reiterated the long term 5% to 7% EPS CAGR. When we kind of take into account the mitigation strategies you're targeting, and this 5% to 7% CAGR. Is this a long term CAGR or do you still have kind of visibility on 5% to 7% growth in '23?
Ralph Izzo:
So Nick, as you know, in a regulated world, with test years and rate cases, one does not -- and even though -- I guess, it's almost 90% of our CapEx has some form of trackers, some of that is delayed six months, some of that's delayed one year. We've never told people that the 5% to 7% CAGR is every year to be applied that it was -- you think the midpoint of the '22 guidance and you look at where we are in '25 and the CAGR over that time frame is 5% to 7%, and we never gave what '23 would be or what '24.
Nick Campanella:
And then just other aspects of the , just like the minimum 15% tax. How does that kind of play into affecting your business, if at all, and what are the offsets there?
Dan Cregg:
I think what's laid out right now, Nick, is pretty simple to what's in the build back better. And so I think your first screen you're going to go through is the size of the earnings from the company to determine whether or not you're subject to it, and then you're going to work your way through essentially will deemphasize things like depreciation and give you a lower rate in exchange. And so that trade off I think as an industry, we're going to go through and take a look and see what that means from a cash flow basis. To the extent that, that does kick in, you'll have a higher cash flow upfront coming out the door for taxes. But whatever excess you do have, that's going to be carried forward indefinitely, and so we will work our way through. And ultimately, to the extent that, that happens, you have a deferred tax asset or probably more appropriately stated a smaller deferred tax liability, which comes into play and the balance of your rate making as well. So I think we're all exploring where this is going to go to the extent it does get across the finish line as is. I know that there are some in Washington who had challenges against this type of increase in the first go round. But right now, as it's played out, it looks pretty similar to what was in build, back, better.
Nick Campanella:
And if I can just squeeze one more in, I think folks are wondering, so I’ll ask. Just any thoughts on an Analyst Day this year?
Ralph Izzo:
So Ralph, go ahead, do you want to…
Ralph LaRossa:
Nick, right now, we're planning to do an Analyst Day in the first quarter of '23. I think Ralph has laid out a bunch of mile posts that would lead us to say that there's enough moving parts that it makes sense for us to have that conversation in the first quarter of '23.
Operator:
Our next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Ralph, I just want to wish you the best in case this is your last earnings call. So first of all, just on the pension, how should we think about how the pension is maybe roughly split between regulated and nonregulated parts of PEG?
Dan Cregg:
You probably have 75%, 80% of it that's going towards the regulated piece.
Steve Fleishman:
And then when you -- obviously, you don't know what returns are going to be the next three years. But when you think about your confidence in the 5% to 7% to . Is most of that just because this just gets all trued up in the rate case no matter what happens to the pension performance, can you just go to a normal return or is it that you're expecting the market to bounce back, and the offsets? Is it more that this is just part of the rate case ups and downs?
Dan Cregg:
Think about it more of the latter, Steve. Well, obviously, you're going to have the effect of markets, both your equity and debt markets for your asset return for the assets within the trust as well as what the discount rate is going to look like. But ultimately, with a bigger part of the pension being on the utility side of the house that you're going to have a regulatory aspect of it that's going to be important as well.
Steve Fleishman:
So it's not like you're counting on the markets to come back or anything like that?
Dan Cregg:
Right.
Steve Fleishman:
And then Ralph Izzo, unfair question to end things up. You've been very involved in working on this IRA law. Just curious your best judgment on the likelihood it passes.
Ralph Izzo:
I was a little bit worried about Senator Sinema, but the tax provisions, the carried interest provisions don't seem to be a big number. So I find it hard to believe that, that would really result in having to worry about one more Renegade Senate vetoing the bill. And as we head into the midterms, there's a really good chance, it looks like the Senate could retain a Democratic majority. And a lot of them feel like if they could get this over the finish line, that would cement that prospect. So I give it a high probability of success. My bigger worry was whether or not when we a $2 trillion piece of legislation to $0.5 trillion if you lose the folks that were part of it on the house side, but some of the more visible and outspoken members of the left wing of the Democratic party have said this is a critically important climate change initiative and the most important thing we've done in this regard. So I've gained a little bit of confidence there as well. So I put its odds at pretty strong. I mean with the Senate majority leaders saying he's going to bring it to the floor on Thursday, even before the parliamentarian is likely to rule, I'd say the odds are looking quite good at this point.
Steve Fleishman:
I had one last question I forgot about. Offshore wind transmission, the bidding for that. Is there any update on the process there?
Ralph Izzo:
The RFP, I think, is going to come out first quarter of next year, for the next round. Is that the question…
Dan Cregg:
It’s an October date, Steve, for when we're supposed to be hearing back -- there's been a little bit of -- there's been work that's been ongoing on it. I know PJM put out a piece related to some of the risks and the constructability, and different elements. And so I know folks have had some comments back on that. But ultimately, it sits within the BPU's jurisdiction with PJM providing some technical support. So October is still when we're supposed to hear back what the answer is on that.
Operator:
The next question is from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Just on the pension topic. One of the discussions that we've had with investors relates to your earned ROEs versus authorized. Obviously, pension has been sort of a tailwind past few years, and it looks like it's going to be a going forward. Can you comment on, Dan, just your earned versus authorized returns at the utility currently? And then how are you modeling that going forward in your 5% to 7% target? I'm interested in your returns versus the authorized levels.
Dan Cregg:
I mean, I think, I guess, if you want to think about what we would anticipate on a go forward basis, it would be earning our allowed return. And so yes, you're going to have some tailwinds and headwinds from various items, pension certainly is one. And you're right, if I think about it in the immediate term, you've got some more -- the potential for more headwinds. And if you look backwards, there's been some tailwinds, but there's other items that have offsets and also come into play. But I think if you want to think about what we're anticipating as we look at '25, I think it's -- we're anticipating earning our allowed return.
Ralph Izzo:
And Dan, I mean, 40% of rate base is transmission, which is basically trued up exactly every year. If I'm not mistaken, doesn't the conservation incentive program have a range where we fall outside that range. We're either not eligible. So we stick to that a long return basically on both the side…
Dan Cregg:
Yes, exactly. The way that, that mechanism works, it has kind of balance related to your earned returns. So we are pretty close to that level throughout.
Durgesh Chopra:
I mean I guess the forward-looking plan has you earning close to the authorized, is the key takeaway here. Just Ralph, I wanted to go back to sort of the strategic review on offshore, how critical -- and this is -- how critical is being involved with the offshore generation side to winning some of these offshore transmission opportunities. Obviously, you previously indicated like roughly, I think, over $1 billion in opportunity, and we'll hear about it in October. But how critical it is from a strategic standpoint to be in the generation to get some of these transmission awards, or you think those are two independent things.
Ralph Izzo:
I think those are two independent things. I don't think it's critical at all. Dan, did you want to answer that?
Dan Cregg:
I'd just reinforce that.
Operator:
The next question is from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Could you talk a little bit as to the hedging environment for 2024 right now for Power? Is there any update on your ability to take advantage of the current commodity backdrop to accelerate some hedging from here, and what's the liquidity looking like?
Dan Cregg:
There's more liquidity out there, David. We couldn't close out the entire position in a very short term. But there's liquidity to be able to continue to do what we anticipate doing, which is staying on a ratable path. I mean I think we've got a market environment, which has higher pricing than what we have seen historically. But by the same token, we've got a fairly backwardated curve. And so those two items, I think, are a little bit at odds with respect to where things may be going. So we're moving along related to our ratable hedging program kind of within the bounds that we set, I anticipate that general construct to remain.
David Arcaro:
And it's early, but just wondering as you think about some of the strategic considerations over the next year or so. Any early thoughts on how you'd redeploy capital and kind of use of proceeds as some of these strategic endeavors might unlock cash flow?
Ralph Izzo:
I mean I think one of the things that is really important about the infrastructure advancement program is the recognition to the credit of the Board of Public Utilities of the under investment or let's just say the lack of investment that has followed the last mile because there was so much to do with the higher voltage part of the system. And all the good work we did in transmission and inside plant that actually resulted in our second Edison award and just an outstanding outcome in what was a devastating flood event in Hurricane Ida. All of that work that went so well at the high notes now needs to go towards the lower voltage part of the system. And was a recognition of that, and getting $500 million plus of the $800 million ask approved, I think, shows that we're entering a new era, people working from home, losing power at the home is not just knowing, blinking lights on, the microwave oven, you can't charge a car and you can't do your work, you can't call your neighbor, you can't find out where the kids are and that level of resiliency and reliabilities is something that customers are demanding. So I think that there's a lot of opportunity in that last mile that we're just beginning to explore and touch upon. So as we've often said in the past, David, there's a long runway of utility investment needs. I mean we still have a lot of aging infrastructure we have in place, that's to get with a little track of what the runway is on the GSMP program at the current spend rate, if you see the 20 or some odd years, I think. So the number one gating function has been, is, and will be, just making sure that we have customer affordability and we're always mindful of that. But in terms of opportunities to redeploy, that's on the things that used to keep your awake at night that were somewhere around number 20.
Operator:
Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I'm just going to keep going here on the theme here on the 5% to 7%. And I want to come back to -- I know we asked you, I think, even last time here, but Dan, the expectation of this persisting beyond '23 on the 5% to 7%. Does that include the latest net pension headwinds in Power mark-to-market, where do you stand on reflecting that? And just -- again, just again, I get that this moving around, I get is rate case extension -- what is your expectation? And related to that, if you can, what is the current asset performance year-to-date? You kind of implied a comment in your prepared remarks, but if you can quantify that, that would be great.
Dan Cregg:
Julien, I think it's consistent with what we've been saying. I think we're not going to know exactly what that number is going to be until 12/31. That is the nature of how we do our accounting and that's where we're going to stand. And so I think we're going to have that part of the puzzle determined at that time. And given the variability we've seen in markets, you could see some movement there. I would argue that if you take a look at how we are invested with kind of in the mid-50s on the equity side and then some real assets and the balance being on the debt side, you can kind of make a determination that we're -- if you use just the benchmarks, I think you're going to be in the right ballpark. Against that backdrop, we're going to do exactly what Ralph talked about. We're going to go through. We're going to drive through all the initiatives that we've started to lay out, made determinations on some. We'll continue to make determinations on other and trying to make sure we strike the right balance between running the business right and managing our way through some near term headwinds. And the magnitude of those and what we see by virtue of doing the things that we've identified is going to be what's going to determine where we end up in 2023. So it's a little bit dynamic right now but that's going to drive ultimately where we land within 2023, and that guidance will be forthcoming.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And maybe implicitly within this, you expect the utility to grow 5% to 7% specifically, right?
Dan Cregg:
Say again?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So you expect the utility to grow 5% to 7% specifically as well, right?
Ralph Izzo:
So we give you a rate base CAGR on the utility, we don't break each business separately in terms of the CAGR. But as you know, Julien, given 90% of our CapEx get some type of contemporaries return, the utility earnings should equal rate base minus O&M minus regulatory lag, plus any new customer growth which is not part of the SIP. And those last three pieces are pretty small but they can change things faster the first decimal point. But we don't break out each company separately in terms of the CAGR. But the…
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Actually, just going back to the last question, very briefly here. Why only hedge 5 percentage points of '24 at this point, is it just about the prospects on federal support here that hold you back just to make sure?
Dan Cregg:
Say your question again, Julien?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just on the only adding about 5 percentage points on '24 hedging, I would have thought intuitively, maybe you would layer in more. Again, question is more, is the federal support and uncertainty from a legislative perspective, hold you back?
Dan Cregg:
I mean, I think, frankly, it's just more consistent with respect to how we're thinking about the ratable program. We are a little bit higher than what a ratable three year would have you have the math turn out to be. And then so we have some of those ranges but we want to stay within a bit of a ratable band identifying as well the backwardation that exists within the curve. And so I think that we'll continue to move forward, continuing to hedge at the prices that we're seeing as we go forward. But I think you'll -- I wouldn't anticipate us to be outside of that ratable range in the near future.
Operator:
The next question is from Ross Fowler with UBS.
Ross Fowler:
So I just wanted to go to Slide 22 and make sure I understand the dynamic here between the potential, let's call it, potential because it's what it is, a nuclear PTC at the federal level and the ZECs in New Jersey. So if I think about the 55% to 60% that you've hedged to 32 hours a megawatt hour out to ‘24. Right now, status quo I would add the $10 ZEC to that and get a price on that hedge piece of about $42 a megawatt hour. But if I were to get the nuclear PTC, that would be somewhere between $42 and $44, a megawatt hour, and that would actually be upside to that pricing, because the ZEC would go away of New Jersey, if I understand it correctly, it would be replaced essentially by the nuclear PTC at the federal level. Have I got that right, is that the right understanding of how that would come in…
Dan Cregg:
You're absolutely right.
Ross Fowler:
And then the non-hedged piece would come back to the nuclear PTC price if -- well, it would basically be either the current price if it were over the $44 or would be the at the nuclear PTC, if that's what we get, or it would be whatever you hedge at plus the ZEC, if that's where we stay. So am I thinking about that correctly?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think that's right. Ross, if you think about what they're doing in Washington essentially is a floor, and to the extent that realized exceeds that then the PTC basically just drifts away as your realized goes up and New Jersey with plus 10%.
Ross Fowler:
So as you look to hedge a further piece of that and following on Julien's question here where you go through your ratable hedging, if hedging were to move up above that $32, it would be above the nuclear PTC. But if you lose the $10 ZEC, you have to come back to the nuclear PTC level. Is that how I should think about that? I guess I'm trying to say if you're hedged at $35, you get a credit for the PTC up to that $44 level in the federal PTC case or if you're hedged at $34, you would have -- or $35, it would actually be $45 in the ZEC case. Am I thinking about that correctly?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, the ZEC does not have to -- the state does not, it could be $10.
Dan Cregg:
Through to '25 is what we -- and the crisp definition with respect to the realized that you apply in determining what the PTC is to get you to that $44 is going to be finalized within the details, but that's our expectation.
Ross Fowler:
I just wanted to make sure I was getting the into out correctly as we potentially change what applies to the power side in New Jersey for the nuclear…
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
My question is probably more for Dan. Dan, you talked a little bit about collateral postings and being a little over -- right around $2.5 billion at the end of July. That cash, if I understand correctly, it comes back over the next 18 months, between now and year end 2023. So how should we think of -- what does that mean, does that mean that it's simply a reduction in maybe your draws on your credit facility that shows up, so short term debt on the balance sheet will actually go down by that amount by the time we get to 2023 -- end of '23, if we leave all else constant?
Dan Cregg:
You're thinking about it exactly right, Michael. So there's -- think about it as incremental draws to fund that. And as that comes back, we would just take out the source that was used to fund in the first license.
Michael Lapides:
And the source that's being used to fund it is simply short term debt or credit facility up top at the holding company level?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, that's exactly right.
Michael Lapides:
And if I were to apply -- my follow-on question relates to the Inflation Reduction Act. If I were to apply that to the minimum tax requirement to 2022, how big of a cash flow impact would that be on this year using your guidance for this year, how material?
Dan Cregg:
I wouldn't give you like a single year look because you can have onetime items that would come through. So if you think about this year, we closed the fossil sales, so you're going to have some kind of disruptions in what it normally looks like. I think if I would try to do the math, and it's going to depend year-over-year over the longer term, but you're going to basically take a look at what your delta is within your accelerated depreciation, what the delta is within the rates. There's going to be other pieces that are going to move, but I think those are the two biggest moving pieces that you have. And how much does that 6% buy you going from 21% to 15% compared to the magnitude of what you're getting through the tax benefits that will be taken away that are in your book income. So that's the trade-off and it's going to vary a little bit by year depending upon what capital you're deploying and where you are within the accelerated depreciation .
Michael Lapides:
I hate to sound really big picture here, but I'm going to try and do it. Big deal, medium deals, small deal.
Dan Cregg:
I think it's probably somewhere in between. I think to the extent that you're going to see an incremental payment, you're going to end up having an indefinite carryforward on your credit and basically, that's going to reduce deferred taxes. And so to the extent that deferred taxes end up reducing your rate base when you have a deferred tax liability, it seems like you'd have the potential that -- from a regulatory perspective, you'd have an incremental rate base component on the regulatory side of the business, and that's where most of the capital is. So I think it's still going to play out and see where we end up in the final determination, but somewhere in between.
Operator:
The next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Best of luck to Ralph and Ralph. And I just wanted to kind of pick up on the last point a little bit there, if I could, as it relates to the IRA, and it passed as it is. How would this impact your financing strategy and agency thresholds if passed?
Dan Cregg:
Well, I think ultimately, there's the potential for a lot of pieces, Jeremy. So it's kind of tough to give a really crisp answer. You've got some -- if I think about just a couple of pieces that are going on, you're going to have a PTC on nuclear that's either going to kick in into certain magnitude or not kick in a certain magnitude because you're above or below that floor. So you've got some cash variability there. I think you've got offshore wind, you've got some PTC potential versus ITC and you're going to make your trade off there, which has a different impacts for cash and for book. And then you've got this minimum tax item, which could be an incremental draw on cash. And so I think having the balance sheet strength that we have, we have the ability, obviously, to work through these issues. But I think the incremental financings around the edges would be changing based upon the timing of some of these things when we see any potential minimum tax incremental payments reversing and the timing of any of these credits that come through. So those are the things you would look to. But I think you've got a lot of time between now and final passage to actually figure out what the actual impacts are going to be.
Jeremy Tonet:
And just one little point there. Is it fair to say PTC visibility for nukes would change agency view there versus three years at?
Dan Cregg:
Certainly, a favorable item, magnitude of that change to be determined. I think you've -- like we talked about, it could be incremental dollars, it could be a floor which provides stability, which reduces risk, which the agencies would like. So either way, if I think about both the flexibility on the offshore wind as well as the PTC for nuclear, I think both of them are value additive from the standpoint of both of these options that we have on the generation side.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just a last one if I could. As it relates to the IAP process, are there any takeaways from this process this time, particularly as it relates to how you might view future extensions of CEF and GSMP programs?
Dan Cregg:
I think less on CEF and GSMP and more on last mile. So I think this was the first proposal that we put in front of the BPU to start the long runway of work that we have on the last mile. And we were very pleased with the acknowledgment of that need and the work that we have ahead of us. So I think more than anything else, I would look to the IAP, if it's a signal for anything, it's the acknowledgment of the work that does need to be done on the last mile of the system on a more proactive basis rather than just run to failure.
Ralph Izzo:
Great. So look, it's been mentioned a couple of times. This is my last quarterly earnings call, and it's something of a cliche, but I have to tell you, it's been just a genuine honor and privilege to be with this company for 15 years. And for those of you who are still on the call or listening to the webcast, I want to extend to you and hope you'll accept my sincere thanks for all the conversations, all of the probing questions you've offered over those years. And I'm not kidding, I mean it served to make us a better company and hopefully, it serves to make me a better CEO. I'll genuinely miss those interactions. But I cannot overemphasize the company is in great hands with the new Ralph, with Dan and the entire senior team. We've worked side by side for a long time, and I have just 100% confidence that they will do a far better job than I was able to do on my own, certainly, in the early stages. Now I know that you're all eager to learn more about pensions and nuclear economics and ownership and offshore wind prospects, and you will, and you will. But I'm encouraging our leadership team to continue our proud tradition of taking a long term view and gathering important information before rushing into decisions that might have short term appeal but long term consequences. And I think we're literally talking about weeks and maybe months before we get some really important data points that come our way. So with that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Ralph.
Ralph LaRossa:
Thank you, Ralph. I just have a few items I wanted to touch on. First, I want everyone to know how excited I am for our future. We are very well positioned by our Power and Progress vision, and I look forward to continuing the work that we have started. Second, I wanted to thank all of you on the call for the kind and supporting words I've received from so many of you since the announcement in April. And I look forward to meeting with you throughout the remainder of 2022. But finally, I wanted to thank you, Ralph. Thank you for all you've done for this great company, our customers and our employees. Thank you for the industry leadership and specifically your leadership on addressing climate change issues. And last but not least, I thank you for all the time and effort you've given to me personally. And with that, Kyle, I think we’re ready to close the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Liddy and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Today’s Conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. And as a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, May 3, 2022, and will be made available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s Investor Relations website at http://investor.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning. And thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG’s first quarter 2022 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our IR website located at www.investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings, which differ from net loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings material. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for a review of PSEG’s first quarter results. PSEG reported a GAAP net loss of under $0.01 per share, resulting predominantly from mark-to-market adjustments related to higher energy prices versus our existing forward sale contracts. We exclude these items in calculating PSEG’s non-GAAP operating earnings, which were a $1.33 per share for the first quarter of 2022. For the first quarter of 2021, PSEG reported a $1.28 per share for both net income and non-GAAP operating earnings. And just a reminder that first quarter 2021 included the results from our divested fossil assets, and solar source. Our non-GAAP results for the first quarter of ‘22 reflect solid utility and nuclear operations. That foundation combined with rate-based growth from regulated investments, as well as lower cost resulting from the completed sale of PSEG fossil, offset lower capacity and recontracting this quarter. Regulated operations at PSE&G continue to benefit from our ongoing investments in energy infrastructure and clean energy. Increasing first quarter ‘22 earnings per share by over 7% above first quarter 2021 results. And following the February fossil sale close, we are reporting results from our non-utility activities under the heading carbon free infrastructure and other or CFIO. For the first quarter of 2022, CFIO reported a net loss of $1.02 per share driven by these same mark to market adjustments. And non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.32 per share. This compares with $0.34 per share for both net income and non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2021, which once again, included results from the divested fossil assets. Slide 11 details these results for the quarter. PSE&G's customer satisfaction scores reflect our commitment to safe and reliable service, achieving top quartile performance in all six factors of measurement among large utilities in the east, in the JD Power first quarter 2022 residential electric study. The statewide moratorium on shutoffs for residential electric and gas service was lifted in mid-March. In late March, New Jersey passed legislation that provides protection from shutoffs to customers who have applied for of payment assistance programs by June 15, 2022. Customers who apply for assistance will be protected from shutoffs, while awaiting their application determination. PSE&G in partnership with the New Jersey Board of public utilities and community groups has stepped up efforts to help customers and arrears in role in the readily available payment assistance programs, such as USF and LIHEAP, as well as providing deferred payment arrangements. We recognize the continued economic strain that the pandemic has brought to many of our customers and we'll -- we will continue to work with empathy as we conduct our collection efforts. We continue to make progress on our infrastructure advancement program, a proposed four year investment in the last mile of our electric distribution system. To address aging substations and gas metering and regulating stations, and to integrate electric vehicle charging infrastructure at our facilities to support the electrification of PSE&G's vehicle fleet. The discovery phase, responding to inquiries from BPU staff and rate council is coming to a conclusion and confidential settlement discussions are scheduled to begin within the next week. We continue to expect based on the current procedural schedule, that final BPU action will take place this fall. With the fossil sale completed on February 23, PSEG will continue to focus on regulated growth, empowering a future where people use less energy, it's cleaner, safer, and delivered more reliably than ever before. As you know, last September PSEG committed to United Nations’ backed Race To Zero campaign, pledging to develop and submit our mission reduction goals consistent with the objectives of the Paris agreement to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degree Celsius or less, what are known as science based targets. Slide 5 and 6 detail our five year 15 billion to 17 billion our capital spending program and show the spending in various categories. The majority of which supports our business ambition for 1.5 degrees, either through direct carbon emissions reductions, energy efficiency, or climate adaptation. The business ambition for 1.5 degrees includes our net zero by 2030 goals, as well as keeping our emissions targets across all three scopes, within the 1.5 degree limit consistent with the Paris Agreement. Essentially the business ambition for 1.5 degrees C will use science to validate PSEG's net zero commitments to inform needed investments and our resulting growth opportunities. We are fully engaged in developing our plan, staffed with technical advisors and internal teams that are preparing to submit our targets to the science-based target initiative, by the end of this year, which is well ahead of the fall '23 timeframe required. Based on our initial carbon inventory, our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions comprised roughly 15% of our total carbon emissions. Our challenge, one that we embrace, is to address our largest emissions category, which falls under Scope 3, the largely a downstream customer use of our energy products that also includes the emissions profiles of our upstream supplier. Our various capital programs support our climate vision and net zero 2030 goals by addressing decarbonization with gas infrastructure replacement, expanding our energy efficient programs, which can also lower customer bills, integrating climate adaptation and resiliency design into our systems, supporting the electrification of transportation, preserving carbon-free nuclear generation, and investing in offshore wind infrastructure, in addition to our base spending. With an improved business mix in an already compelling environmental, social and governance profile, we are confident that we are creating shareholder value by growing our rate base in alignment with New Jersey's clean energy goals, as well as our business ambition for 1.5 degrees centigrade, helping to enable a lower carbon and competitive New Jersey economy. Over the past several weeks and months, energy prices have risen to levels not seen or sustained in many years. Utility customers around the country have been experiencing commodity price increases in their electric and natural gas bills. So the first time in the decade, PSE&G's customers have benefited from the price moderating effects of New Jersey's electric and gas default supply mechanisms, better known as basic generation service or BGS, and basic gas supply service or BGSS. On the electric side, PSE&G contracts were expected BGS load on a three year rolling basis. And each year one-third of the load is procured for a three year period. When the new BGS rate goes into effect this June 1, electric bills will actually decline by 2.8%, owing to a significant reduction in actual versus assumed PJM capacity cost. On the gas side, the BPU permits PSE&G to recover the cost of natural gas hedging, up to 115 billion cubic feet or 80% of its residential gas supply annual requirements through the BGSS tariff. Each June, we make a filing for our anticipated BGSS costs to go into effect in rates before the upcoming winter season. And that filing will be driven by market prices at that time and then chewed up for actual costs overtime. On the nuclear side of the business, we are essentially fully hedged in 2022 and 2023, and approximately 50% hedged in 2024. While the energy price increases helpful to nuclear in the long term, we continue to monitor pricing together with impacts from rising interest rates, adverse financial market conditions impacting future returns for our pension trust, as well as general inflationary pressure in the broader economy covering labor and supply chain material. Collective of these factors, we remain confident in our multiyear 5% to 7% EPS CAGR to 2025. On a related note, we have seen a positive shift in public sentiment in support of nuclear power, and its carbon free energy security attributes since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And we remain hopeful that tax incentive to preserve the economic viability of nuclear generation can be passed in Washington that provides a floor price needed to sustain these carbon free resources over the long term. The department to help struggling nuclear plants with the civilian nuclear program, none of our nuclear units qualify for DOE funding under the initial criteria. We will endeavor to obtain the maximum benefit for our nuclear units from the DOE program, should we qualify in future rounds? However, we do believe that the DOE grant program provides sufficient revenue stability or visibility needed to make longer dated fuel and licensed extension decisions. In late February, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the NRC, reversed the previously granted subsequent license renewal for peach bottom units 2 and 3. The NRC is requesting an updated environmental review that addresses the impacts of extending the operating licenses by 20 years. In the interim, the NRC has rolled back the license expiration dates for peach bottom -- units 2 and 3 to 2033 and 2034 respectively. Moving to offshore wind. The New Jersey BPU hosted a series of four public meetings in March and April, as part of its ongoing evaluation of bids submitted in its offshore wind transmission solicitation, better known as the state agreement approach or SAA process. The meeting solicited public input on topics including integration with offshore wind generation projects, environmental effects, permitting, and rate payer protections and cost controls. We participated in each of the four public meetings to advocate for our submissions and submitted our formal comments to the BPU on April 29, in support of our coastal wind partnership with Orsted. The solutions we submitted range from single collectors at various landing points to a linked transmission network out in the ocean and could range in an investment opportunity for us from $1 billion to $3 billion of selected. Now, let me turn my attention to guidance for 2022. Our regulated investment programs are producing predictable utility growth and the conservation incentive program were sip as we often refer to it, is effectively minimizing variations on electric and gas revenues from the rollout of our energy efficiency programs and other impacts including weather. We are on track to execute PSE&G’s $2.9 billion 2022 capital spending plan, which is part of PSEG’s five year $15 billion to $17 billion capital plan through the year 2025. Over 90% of this capital program is directed toward PSE&G and is expected to produce a 6% to 7.5% compound annual growth rate in rate base over the 22 to 25 period, starting from a year end 2021 rate base of approximately $25 billion. While the first quarter results reflect the lower regulated contribution than the 90% we outlined at our September 2021 investor conference this is due to the favorable first half of 2022 cost comparisons at CFIO operations from divestiture activity. Dan will go into more detail on those drivers during his review. Nonetheless, we continue to see the full-year shaping of consistent with our 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 per share. And for each of PSE&G and CFIO, as I said, a moment ago, we continue on track for our multiyear EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% from the 2022 guidance midpoint to 2025. Now, let me wrap up my comments by mentioning to you what you have all heard by now that I will be retiring as CEO and President of PSEG on September 1, but I will stay on as executive chair of the board until the end of the year. As part of our plan, leadership succession, the PSEG Board of Directors has elected Ralph LaRossa to be the next President and Chief Executive Officer effective September 1. And Ralph will then assume the additional responsibilities of chair of the board in the New Year. Most of you are familiar with Ralph and his incredible operating experience that has guided PSE&G and our generating business over the course of my tenure as CEO. I have every confidence that the other Ralph, as we often refer him, will continue the strong heritage of this 119 year old organization and lead its bright future. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg :
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph mentioned for the first quarter of 2022, PSEG reported a net loss of under a penny for share primarily related to the mark to market adjustments and non-GAAP operating earnings of 1 33 per share. We've provided you with information on Slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the first quarter of 2022, and Slide 12 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. Let's start with PSE&G. PSE&G’s first quarter 2022, non-GAAP operating earnings improved by $0.07 per share over the prior years’ quarter, reflecting rate based editions from our investment programs and the gas system modernization program and the implementation of the conservation incentive program. Compared to the first quarter 2021, transmission was $0.03 per share unfavorable reflecting the implementation effective August of 2021 of the settlement agreement of our transmission formula rate, including a lower return on equity, partly offset by growth and rate base. For distribution, gas margin improved by $0.08 per share over the first quarter of 2021, half of which was driven by the scheduled recovery of an investments made under the gas system modernization program. With the balance reflecting growth in the number of gas customers and the true up from the conservation incentive program. Electric margin rose by $0.02 per share compared to the first quarter of 2021, also reflecting a higher number of customers and the implementation of the SIP mechanism. The SIP was not in effect in last year's first quarter for either gas or electric distribution. Other margin primarily related to appliance service was $0.02 per share favorable compared to the first quarter of 2021. Higher OEM expense was $0.02 per share unfavorable compared with the first quarter of 2021, reflecting timing in various costs. Higher depreciation expense reduced results by a penny per share, reflecting higher plant and service. Lower pension expense added a penny per share compared to the first quarter of ‘21. In addition to the impact of PSEG 500 million share repurchase had $0.01 per share benefit in the first quarter of 2022. Flow through taxes and other items had a net unfavorable impact of a penny per share compared to the first quarter of ‘21, but was more favorable than we will see over the remainder of the year driven by the use of an annual effective tax rate. Winter weather in the first quarter of 2022 measured by heating degree days was slightly colder than normal, as a result of implementing the SIP variations in weather positive or negative, now have a limited impact on electric and gas margins, while enabling the widespread adoption of PSE&G's energy efficiency programs. For the trailing 12 months ended March 31, weather normalized electric sales reflected lower residential sales, lowered by 4.8% and 3.2% respectively and higher C&I sales, higher by 3.3% and 2.8% respectively, as more people return to work outside the home. Growth in the number of electric and gas customers remain positive by approximately 1% during the trailing 12 month period. PSE&G invested $656 million during the first quarter and is on-track to execute its plan 2022 Capital Investment Program of $2.9 billion, which includes infrastructure upgrades, transmission and distribution facilities, as well as the continued rollout of the Clean Energy Future investments and energy efficiency, energy cloud or smart meters, and the electric vehicle charging station infrastructure. PSE&G's forecast of net income for 2022 is unchanged at $1.510 billion to $1.560 billion. Moving on to carbon free infrastructure and other or CFIO. We reported a net loss of $511 million or $1.02 per share for the first quarter of '22 and non-GAAP operating earnings of $163 million or $0.32 per share. This compares to first quarter 2021 net income of $171 million or $0.34 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $173 million or $0.34 per share, which included the results of the divested fossil assets. For the first quarter of 2022, electric gross margin declined by $0.27 per share, primarily due to the completed sale of the 6,750 megawatt fossil portfolio in February, 2022 and the sale of Solar Source. This reduction in gross margin also includes recontracting approximately 8 terawatt hours of nuclear generation, at a $3 per megawatt hour lower average price. Higher margins from gas operations of $0.04 per share compared favorably with the year earlier quarter. Year-over-year cost comparisons were better by $0.21 per share due to the divestitures, driven by lower O&M, depreciation and interest expense that will mainly benefit first half 2022 results. The third and fourth quarters of 2021 reflected the sale of Solar Source in June, the cessation of fossil depreciation due to held-for-sale status from August onward, and the retirement of PSEG Power's outstanding debt in October. Taxes and other was favorable to the tune of $0.01 per share versus the first quarter of 2021 and parent activity was $0.01 per share, unfavorable, reflecting higher interest expense. I also want to make one point on the NRC decision to revert the peach bottom 2 and 3 licenses of 2033 and 2034, respectively that Ralph mentioned earlier. Because the NRC anticipates that it will complete its environmental analysis before 2033, and we believe the licenses will be updated to the previously extended lives of 2053 and 2054, PSEG has not as adjusted the useful lives of the units, and will continue to depreciate the assets through that period. On the operating side, nuclear generating output increased by over 2% to 8.4 terawatt hours, reflecting the absence of the coast down Hope Creek spring 2021, refueling. The full availability of Hope Creek during the first quarter of 2022, helped the nuclear fleet operate at a capacity factor of 100% in the first quarter. PSEG is forecasting generation output of 21 to 23 terawatt hours for the remaining quarters of 2022, and has hedged approximately 95% to 100% of this production at an average price of $28 per megawatt hour. For 2023, PSEG is forecasting nuclear baseload output of 30 to 32 terawatt hours and has hedged 95% to 100% of this output at an average price of $30 per MWh. And for 2024, PSEG is forecasting nuclear baseload output of 29 to 31 terawatt hours and has hedged 50% to 55% of this output at an average price of $31 per MWh. The forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for Carbon-Free Infrastructure and Other is unchanged at $170 million to $220 million for 2022, and this guidance excludes results related to the fossil assets sold in February 2022, as all free cash flow generated in 2022 from the fossil operations prior to the closing were translated into an adjustment to the final purchase price. With respect to financing in March of 2022, PSEG and PSEG Power consolidated their revolving credit agreements into a master credit facility with total borrowing capacity of 2.75 billion with an initial PSEG sub limit of 1.5 billion and an initial PSEG power sub limit of 1.25 billion. The PSEG sub limit includes sustainability linked pricing mechanism with potential increases or decreases depending upon performance relative to targeted methane emissions reductions. In addition, PSE&G expanded its existing revolving credit agreement to provide for a billion dollars of credit capacity. Both facilities are extended through March of 2027. As of March 31, PSEG’s total available credit capacity was 3.2 billion in addition to approximately $1.6 billion of cash and short-term investments on PSEG’s balance sheet inclusive of $910 million at PSE&G. As of March 31, our liquidity position reflects the repayment of $500 million PSEG term loan at maturity in March, repayment of $750 million PSEG term loan due May of 2022 and 500 million of capital being returned through share repurchases. PSEG Power had net cash collateral postings of 1.5 billion at March 31 related to out of the money hedge positions from higher energy prices during the first quarter of 2022. Collateral postings have continued to increase subsequent to March 31 as power prices have continued to rise. At the end of April, PSEG Power had net collateral postings of approximately 2.6 billion. The majority of this collateral relates to hedges in place through the end of 2023, and is expected to be returned to PSEG Power as it satisfies its obligations under those contracts. In March of 2022, PSEG Power closed on 1.25 billion variable rate three year term loan to relever power after redeeming all long term debt outstanding prior to the sale of our fossil fleet. At PSE&G, we issued our first Green Bond in March of 2022, consisting of 500 million of secured medium term notes due 2032 under PSEG’s new sustainable financing framework. And subsequent to March 31, PSEG entered into 1.5 billion variable rate term loan and PSEG Power closed on LC facilities totaling 200 million. Lastly, we have successfully implemented our $500 million share purchase through 250 million of open market purchases, completed earlier in 2022, and an accelerated share repurchase program for the remaining amount that will be completed no later than June of 2022. We are reaffirming PSEG's 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.35 to $3.55 per share with regulated operations contributing approximately 90% of the total. For the full-year of 2022, PSE&G's net income is forecasted at 1,510 million to 1,560 million. Non-GAAP operating earnings for CFIO is forecasted at 170 million to 220 million. PSEG’s 2022 earnings guidance excludes financial results from the divested fossil assets, and includes the additional interest expense related to the recent financings. That concludes our formal remarks. And with that, we are ready to take your questions.
Operator:
The first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Credit Suisse.
Nicholas Campanella :
So just on the higher energy prices, great to see customers well insulated via BGS and I guess just as translates to your unregulated nuclear business, you're partially open on 24 power prices are higher than where the current hedges are today. I think, you mentioned in your prepared remarks that this is helpful to nuclear over the long-term. So I'm just curious, like, has this changed your thinking or your calculus at all and how you're thinking about the long-term ownership of the nuclear fleet?
Ralph Izzo :
No, Nick, so, we we're sticking by the three-part plan that we've had in place, which is that what we really want to see is action in Washington or failing net in New Jersey that provides more stability over the long-term to the revenue stream that nuclear can expect either through production tax credit or an emissions credit along the lines of our Zach. And at that point in time, we'll reach a conclusion as to what the logical long-term positioning of those assets should be. Are we the logical owner or somebody else, the logical owner, but we do think that current markets might make it easier candidly in Washington to score a production tax credit in terms of the impact on the federal budget. And certainly, that would be helpful in New Jersey to reduce the pressure on New Jersey customers. But we're still right now in that Phase 2 of trying to assess how we can get the long-term solution and eliminate some of the volatility that I know our investors and our fans of in terms of the wholesale power market.
Nicholas Campanella:
And if I could just shift to offshore wind quick and just the New York bright auctions, we definitely saw impressive comps out there now. And just thinking about your unused lease bed specifically, the garden state JV with Orstad, it's our understanding that the skip Jack award is out there and – those lease areas might be potentially used for skip Jack, but --- I'm just question on just overall kind of commitment to the offshore program and excess of ocean win one at this point, and how you're thinking about your unused lease bed, if at all?
Ralph Izzo :
So we're having multi-prong conversations with our, that as we still have one more step to go on ocean win one in terms of an FID decision, we're waiting to hear back from the BPU on coastal win link, which we talked about in our remarks. You're right that, -- cannot build out its expansion of Skipjack without making use of our share, or part of our share of the garden state offshore energy lease that we own. When we signed up -- we said we weren't going to do that, as it was going to be one and done that, we wanted to take a look at this market opportunity, which New Jersey is committed to doing 7.5 gigawatts of this in Maryland, probably a couple gigawatts I think is their target at this point in time. But we are looking at the due diligence associated with all these projects and what that means from a return point of view and how that compares with our alternative uses of capital. And rest assured that, unless they exceed what the demands are on a regulated utility on a risk adjusted basis, then we wouldn't go forward. But, if they do, then we do think that this is going to be something that policymakers are committed to do, and we want to be able to participate in that.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Ralph, I just want to, just a quick follow-up on Nick's question around the viability or the longevity of the assets within sort of the portfolio. I guess I'm trying to get a sense on why would the outcome of a federal PTC or -- kind of be a deciding factor if these assets are logical for you to own them or not? I mean, is it, or is it more of a function of trying to cement the value of the assets post sort of any kind of policy initiatives? I guess, how do we sort of think about these kind of bookends here, that would be helpful because just trying to get a sense on timing, and if there's any sort of discussions happening.
Ralph Izzo :
Yeah, I mean, look, these are really highly performing assets from an operational point of view. If you can come up with an economic construct that makes them look regulated, and by that, I mean you basically in the federal PTC, you have essentially set a price of $44 per megawatt hour for the output, right, as it was originally designed. It could be higher than that. Hopefully people wouldn't complain about that. And it could conceivably be lower than that, if power prices drop below $15 a megawatt hour, which we haven't seen, you never say never. So, then the question becomes if you have achieved that kind of earning or margin stability, you have done two things. You have either convinced the market that you are a legitimate and natural owner of the plants and it reflect, it gets reflected in your valuation, which would be great, or you haven't convinced the market that you are a natural owner, but you have enhanced the value of those assets for whoever it's natural owner is. So, since nuclear has gained so much favor in international markets and domestic markets and certainly in New Jersey, why would you lose patients and do something sooner than otherwise and leave value on the table, if you are not the natural owner or realize that value, if you are the natural owner you. And so, I pride ourselves on running this company, not for the next few weeks, but for the next few decades. And I think we are going to know a lot in the next couple of months in Washington. And then, we will turn out attention to New Jersey if Washington proves that, it's unable to act, but the situation in Ukraine has heightened concern over natural gas markets, and what that means for us as domestic uses and what that means for us as LNG exporters. And that has huge implications for the nation's fuel mix for electricity and nuclear has to be a vital part of that. So I think we have some opportunities here, right. To maximize the value of those assets.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. So just not to paraphrase, but the topic is really around value accretion for another owner versus trying to emulate a regulated type of return within PSE&G?
Ralph Izzo:
No, I think that's the question on the table. Can we fashion a regulated return on those assets through whatever construct we come up with? And I think PSEG gives you a shot at that, but we won't be the ones to determine that that'll be decided in Washington. And failing that, I still think by giving it the kind of predictability and long-term floor price that it's envisioned than that you maximize the value of those plants to whoever the natural owner is.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Okay. So a little bit more to come here on that. And then just maybe a little bit minor, but from sort of the fourth quarter to the 1Q the volumes TWh for the assets, the generation volumes went from 31 to a range of 30 to 32 for 23. Is there kind of a reason a Ralph that you're providing a range now versus kind of an absolute number? We would've thought obviously the plans would be running around the clock except for like a refueling outage. So there's any change in the planning assumptions there. And then could we, let me just get a quick update on the operating strategy for the assets in light of the commodity price moves and the policy uncertainty. So what sort of hedge profile is appropriate to kind of maybe maximize value with these externalities?
Ralph Izzo:
Right. So there's zero change in the expected operating performance of the assets. We kind of thought 31 to 33 was a pretty narrow range that has a target midpoint. That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. And in terms of the hedging profile, we do the three years pro ratable and we do give our folks some flexibility depending upon market moves that seem to be a little bit of an outlier, or maybe deviating from what the fundamentals might predict. And that's why we're a little bit more heavily hedged than we would normally be two years out. But Dan, I don’t know if you want to supplement that, but I'd say no, no massive change.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, sure. There's no change. I guess if you think about, even in my preparative remarks, I talked a little bit about overall volumes, and as we go into an outage, if we have run very well, it has been recent history throughout the entire run since the last refueling added, you end up coasting down on the way in. And so it's those kind of things that can add a little bit of change between what's there. But I think your question was we said 31. Now we said 30 to 32, 31 is dead in that midpoint. So there's really no difference at all. And we're going to operate to be able to continue to have us units on round the clock to be able to capture what's there. Now we're hedged up front, and as Ralph said, we look at it over three years. We usually have a little band around that. And if we like where prices are, we can move up a little bit. So we're a little bit North of that. If you take a look at where we are on hedges, but don't read anything into a change that says 31 turns 30 to 32, it's the same midpoint. And it just has a little bit of that variability that exists, but it's still frankly it's as much about strong operations and coasting into it originally adage than anything else.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet :
I just want to start off on results here. You talked, I think you mentioned them being and just wondering if you could walk us through 1Q results to your full-year guidance here, particularly for CFIO. Are you trending toward the high end of the range here? At least for that segment results seems a bit better than maybe we would've expected there.
Ralph Izzo :
Yeah, Jerry, I mean, I think the one thing that I would look at is some of the shape that we have as you look at the year as a whole. We we'll have a shift in capacity revenues as we go through the year and those will come off based upon the auctions that we've already seen. We have another auction coming up in about a month or so we'll get back to a regular process there, but there's a little bit of tax movement that you see throughout the year as we book to an annual effective tax rate and some of the recontracting has a little shape to it. So I would say that we reiterated guidance for CFIO and kind of hold just to that blanket statement.
Jeremy Tonet :
And now that settlement discussions are active for the IAP, how do you see prospects for reaching a broad agreement among stakeholders at this juncture?
Ralph Izzo :
Jeremy that the temptation's always to give you a play by play, but they are confidential settlement discussions. And I would simply say, look, we go out of our way to pick things that are essential from a reliability point of view and consistent with stay a policy, but those discussions have just started and I want to be respectful of great council and the BPU staff that they've asked us to treat those confidentially and I owe that to them.
Operator:
The next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning team and congratulations on this call Ralph -- this time, rather than Ralph, but thank you team.
Ralph Izzo :
There's no end of the abuse we take on this. I just want you to know how hard it was to find another Ralph.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Absolutely. You just had to. But to that point, listen, in the messaging that you just threw out there with the ETS CAGR range through 25 still intact at five to seven. How do you reconcile that with the current 24 and 25 wholesale forwards, given your likely open position in that time period? I mean, what are the offsets here? I mean, are the headwinds from inflation and pension that real to offset this magnitude of upside and what we've seen in the power price environment?
Ralph Izzo :
Well, Julian, believe it or not, we actually expected that question. So well you look, we try to get the cadence and not change our earnings guidance with every quarterly call for the long-term. So what we'll do is you we'll fill you -- on our hedge position, if you want to predict where the market will be tomorrow, that that's okay. We just try to radically hedge in and in September, we'll have an investor conference and we'll give you ‘23 guidance and multi-year guidance at that point. And a lot of the benefit of a few more months of market purchases and but yeah, we'd rather not start adjusting our four year CAGR or five year CAGR with every quarterly call. So that's how we justify it.
Dan Cregg:
Our -- are going to say Julian, our sales will kind of be what they are. We'll keep giving you that update and just a reminder, because as you take a look at some of the prices that you are seeing, you have got some significantly higher prices in the very near-term than you do further out. And so, if you take a look at, where the overall complex is, you have got the balance of year '22 and '23 are significantly higher than '24 and '25. In '22 and '23 we are hedged, right, so really the opportunity is with, yes, those higher prices that you see '24 and '25, but not nearly as high as you see in '22 and '23.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yeah. I appreciate that dynamic. And Ralph, related here, if we can speak to it, how are you thinking about your conversation with the BPU and others, in an effort to sort of effectuate a longer-term solution? I mean, it seems like a particularly opportunistic moment here to take advantage of the environment to kind of engage in more wholesome discussion with the state and stakeholders, on something that might be more sustainable over long-term and help to provide some de-risking to the upside for customers.
Ralph Izzo:
I absolutely agree with you, Jillian. I do think that, forward prices in the market, do offers an opportunity to think about, okay, will the market on its own sustain nuclear units. And is there an opportunity to move away from this three-year cycle that really does impair our ability to make any major long-term decisions about capital improvements or license extension or anything of that nature? So, the production tax credit type of solution at the federal level, of course, as the tremendous benefit of stabilizing margin, while removing the burden on New Jerseyans, and I do think it's perfectly normal for the state to say. Well, let's sort that out because, absent action at the federal level, then we know we have to address, the long-term stability of the asset, but what we do in the state could vary depending upon what happens at the federal level. So, we don't have to be sequential and wait for an infinite amount of time for the federal government to act. But, as you know, there is talk in Washington right now of a climate only provision, and there is talking that happening so sooner rather than later. But you are spot on, the robustness of the forward price that we are seeing in the market does create an opportunity to stabilize the nuclear units for the long-term.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. And I think the, if I hear you right, the key linchpin here is the state, recognize that, you all don't have the visibility you need for the subsequent license extension, which is obviously something that the state would likely be keen towards, but you can't emphasize, you can't invest given the construct at present.
Ralph Izzo:
That's exactly right. We can't, nor would I expect anybody else could, if somebody else were to be the logical owner and it's broader than that, right. I mean, these nuclear plants are terrific. But every once in a while, something happens, and it's really tough to do a discount of cash flow over three years and convince yourself that it's going to pay itself off. So you have to prepare for that possibility. And there was another study came out recently by Princeton University, which we funded, but their demands for academic independence, I assure you were at the highest level. And they clearly articulated that, continued operation of those nuclear units was amongst the lowest cost pathways to achieve the state's carbon target. So, I've lost track of how many studies have verified the need for the ongoing operation of those plants beyond their current license life.
Operator:
The next question is from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team and Mike congratulations also to Ralph and Ralph. Just I want to go back, I have two questions, one on offshore when generation then a follow up on the transmission piece of it. Just Ralph, can you remind us if there's on the skip check and skip check to opportunity. I guess the partnership, the garden state offshore energy partnership, is there sort of a timeline or expiration data to sort of, when can you make that decision in terms of whether you're going to have ownerships taken the project or not?
Ralph Izzo:
There was no a hard date, I guess we've been telling people you should expect that to be measured in months, rather in weeks, obviously, or that has a obligation to meet the deadlines that they have in Maryland. And they're going to continue in that path, but we don't have a hard and fast deadline for making our decision. It would be nice to make an integrated decision, right? So we have an FID decision on Ocean Wind 1 coming up probably Q1 of next year, late this year. And it would be wise to kind of come up with a bundle of approach. The BPU will give feedback on the coastal win link in October of this year. So it would be months. Dan, did you want to add…
Dan Cregg:
Just recalled your guess that the on Skipjack, that was an Orsted bid, and so upon the success of that bid, the opportunity was put to us. So we kind of began our due diligence on the other side of the acceptance of that bid and the winning component of that solicitation. So that the timeline of that really started after that bid was successful.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So I guess in terms of months, like in you mentioned the September investor conference, analyst day, would you have a sense of where directionally you were headed here or is that still kind of you'll still be in the decision making phase then?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. If we do it in September, it would prob -- that would be before we know what's going to happen in offshore wind, just because the BPU was saying, they'll give a decision on transmission in October. And they've been really good about sticking to their promised deadlines on offshore wind, but you always have to assume that there's a potential for some slippage there. And I don't think in any of our thinking, is there an FID decision that would happen as early as a September? So probably we'll know or more, but we won't have decided things by that point.
Durgesh Chopra :
Got it. And then just one quick follow up, Ralph. I mean, you've said previously, roughly over a billion dollars in the transmission offshore opportunities, and I heard you saying your prepared remarks about 1 billion to 3 billion. Is that just obviously that's a pretty large number from the 1 billion, but is that just confidence in your sort of in your bids or sort of what's driving that 1 to 3 versus sort of roughly 1 billion previously.
Ralph Izzo :
Yes. So first of all, the BPU working through this state agreement approach has categorized the transmission investments in really four ways. This kind of an offshore backbone, there's a connection of the backbone to land. And that connection to land could be at an existing facility or a new facility. And then there's the upgrade to the existing grid that need to be made because of those first three pieces. The BPU can decide to give all of that to one bidder. They can decide to give some of that to one bid, some of it to another bid or the BPU can decide, we're going to stick with generator leads. We don't need to build the transmission network. So they have such tremendous flexibility and latitude in terms of how they want to design transmission for offshore wind that we by definition have to be pretty broad in our range of what's possible. We put 1 billion to 3 billion in terms of if we got the smallest of our projects versus some of the larger projects, but don't misunderstand me. The bottom end of the range could be zero. So we're not guaranteed anything in that solicitation. We happen to think we're the best bidder in the lot. So, and I trust the wisdom of the BP and PJM to recognize as that, but that's by no means guarantees.
Dan Cregg:
I just think that there's, I guess the open nature of the solicitation was such that a lot of different solutions could come about and whether or not it is a series of winning bidders within the solicitation is also something that could end up moving the number around a little bit. So, we did put it in a series of different values and thus the range of different potential outcomes and zero is certainly a possibility.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides :
This one may be more for Dan. Dan, can you talk to us about the cash outflows required for collateral postings and how we should think about kind of what happens cash wise, once those postings reverse? How much CA how much actual cash has gone out the door or for postings versus given your strong credit rating or is it not really a cash posting or something else? And how should we think about the timing of if there's cash going out the door when that cash comes back in?
A – DanCregg :
So, I alluded a little bit to it within my remarks and we have some data within the slides as well. And so right now, the number for the amount of cash out the door at the end of April was 2.6 billion. And those are mostly for exchange trades. And very simply the way to think about it is that it's covering the positions that we have hedged and reflective of the Delta between the price that we put the hedge on, we put the sale on and where prices are now. And so if you think about the nature of our overall hedging program, most of the volume for those hedges is within 2022 and 2023. So most of that cash would come back to us as we deliver that power across 2022 and 2023. And so that's one way it comes back to us is by the delivery of that power. The other way it comes back to us is to the extent that you see price declines and the escalation that we've seen in prices coming off some of that would end up in bringing some cash back to us. So that's amount that that's what's posted, and that's how it would end up coming back to us.
Michael Lapides :
So if I think about the balance sheet as of the quarter, and maybe April cause you've posted more in April. And you get 2.6 billion of cash in-flow, roughly ballpark between now and the end of the year, 2023. So call it a 30 month, 32 month timeframe, something like that. What do you do with that money? Where does that money go? That's a lot of money.
Dan Cregg :
Yeah. It is a lot of money. And I think that the simple answer is it, it goes back largely where it comes from. And so we would normally tap a commercial paper program to put some of those postings in place. We've recently put some term loans in place to have that flexibility with respect to the funding. And so that is where you would end up seeing that reverse literally where it came from those areas.
Operator:
And the next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont from Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
Thank you very much. And I want to wish both Ralph, all the best in terms of their next move. I guess, if you were to be successful on the $1 billion to $3 billion, would that change your past discussion on no equity need through '25?
Ralph Izzo :
No, no. At this point, no. Sorry. I don't, I don't mean to be, overly succinct. But, that was something that we envisioned.
Dan Cregg :
Yeah. And another thing is if you think about it, Paul, you are going to end up with that in service date, going out into the latter half of the decade as well. So that the spending in earnest is going to be on the back end of the decade.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. Also, when I look at sort of the first quarter, nuclear or fuel cost per megawatt hour, it looks to be a little bit lower than it was last year. I guess we have sort of seen inflation in uranium prices and sort of other components of nuclear fuel cost. What's driving sort of the lower nuclear fuel cost per megawatt hour?
Ralph Izzo :
I don't know if Dan has a specific answer to that component. But remember nuclear fuel is purchased over a multiyear period and multiple components. Some of these contracts are done six years in advance of enrichment, the conversion. But Dan, do you...
Dan Cregg:
Exactly. And for our facilities, if you kind of break it apart, unit-by-unit a little bit more at the peach bottom side. But Ralph is exactly right. If you think about the actual uranium and the conversion, the fabrication, those are contracts that are put in place over a long period of time. So, what we are amortizing now is many years in the making of the fuel that you are saying on the P&L.
Paul Fremont:
Great. And over, so, I mean, the hedges on average run for 6 years, is that sort of a fair assumption?
Ralph Izzo :
On a different components of the fuel cycle? Yes, that's correct.
Paul Fremont:
And then you talked about sort of the remaining 250 of share repurchase being completed, by June. How much of that second 250 has already been completed?
Ralph Izzo :
About 80% of it, Paul. It's predominantly completed. It's an ASR, so the accelerated nature of it is such that the upfront pieces, most of it. And then you just threw it up as you finished the overall purchases. So, most of it is behind us.
Paul Fremont:
And last question for me, the date of your next planned New Jersey GRC filing?
Ralph Izzo :
The GRC, general rate case filing?
Paul Fremont:
Right.
Ralph Izzo :
Actually, by the end of '23.
Dan Cregg:
4th quarter next year.
Operator:
And the next question is from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson :
I wanted to touch base with you guys on, I'm sorry, you guys mentioned the life extension and that it wasn't in numbers and -- but I'm just a of wondering what the potential depreciation benefit might be if that were to come about?
Ralph Izzo :
Well, so are you talking about the peach bottom life extension or the potential for salem and hope creek life extension?
Paul Patterson :
Both.
Ralph Izzo :
On the peach bottom depreciation benefit we already took. That was what, like $2 million a month or something. And we wouldn't dream of a depreciation benefit on salem and hope creek until we had a long term solution for nuclear fully baked and determined that we were the logical owners of that. So I don't even, Dan do you --
Dan Cregg:
I don't have a number. So that's a long number of years away, Paul.
Paul Patterson :
Well, I mean, I'm just wondering if you were to get legislation that would enable you guys to go forward with it. Different companies do it differently, but often if you apply for a license extension, for the most part, in other words, often you have companies that we we'll take the -- will adjust the depreciation based on just the ability to file for license extension. Do you file what I'm saying?
Ralph Izzo :
Yes, I do. I would anticipate that we would extend the lives when we have the license extension in hand.
Paul Patterson :
Okay. Like I said, it varies from company companies. So and then with the -- could you just remind us what the book value is on a GAAP basis for those plans? If you don't know, it's okay. I don't need to…
Ralph Izzo :
I don't have any, but I mean, the other thing I would say is if you're thinking about a license extension, you're getting to the point where you are going to make that commitment, which is after you have some long-term certainty, then you're going to put the filing together, then you're going to make the filing, and then you're going to get the response from the filing. So really what would matter would be the book value at that time. And there's a lot of daylight between now and then.
Paul Patterson :
Okay. And then the appliance the $0.02 positive, could you just elaborate a little bit more what's driving that? And what the outlook might be associated with that?
Ralph Izzo :
Client services?
Paul Patterson :
Yes.
Ralph Izzo :
I'm sure it was some combination of what we call -- it's called , which is people call us up because their heating system broke, and they didn't have a contract and we go out there. But I don't have the details in front of me right now. Paul, we can get that for you. The other possibility is that the party appliance services contracts, and if the weather was mild enough where we didn't have to go out and service folks with the normal frequency that we might have had a better top line with the lower cost of goods sold in that business. But we can get that specific for you.
Dan Cregg:
I expect there'd be a major driver as we go through the balance of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions. Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg, please continue with your closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo :
Thank you, Ludi, and thanks everyone for joining us today. So we're not going to hide Ralph, the other Ralph. He is going to be joining Carlotta, Dan and me for a bunch of upcoming industry conferences. And he'll also be on the next quarterly call. And then I can't count my quarters. I think the one after that, he's going to just run with that and Dan on his own, but we do look forward to seeing all of you in person again. And thanks for joining us today. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Julia, and I will be your event operator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 24, 2022, and will be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at https://investor.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Julia. Good morning and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our IR website located at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-K will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings material. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning, everyone. Sadly, the events of today do warrant a slight deviation from our normal beginning remarks. And let me just offer our thoughts and prayers from everyone at PSEG to those of you, who are more deeply and personally affected by the events in Eastern Europe. And of course, we pray for a rapid diplomatic resolution of matters. Let me proceed, however, with a review of our 2021 performance and our outlook for 2022 and beyond. We are, in fact, pleased to report strong operating and financial results for 2021, which marked the 17th year in a row that PSEG has delivered results within management's original or in some cases, our raised non-GAAP operating earnings guidance. So PSEG's GAAP results were $0.88 per share for the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to $0.85 per share in the fourth quarter of 2020. For the full year, PSEG reported a 2021 net loss of $1.29 per share, driven by charges related to the sale of PSEG Fossil. This compares to net income of $3.76 per share in 2020. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.69 per share, compared to $0.65 per share in the fourth quarter of the prior year. Non-GAAP results for the full year 2021 rose to $3.65 per share, compared to $3.43 per share in 2020. For 2021, PSE&G net income increased by 9% above 2020 results and contributed approximately 80% of PSEG's consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings. Slides 15 and 17 detail these results for the quarter and the full year. So we're pleased to report that PSEG has completed the sale of the Fossil portfolio. We closed on the PJM assets on February 18, and the New York and New England assets closed yesterday, having received all required regulatory approvals from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and regulators in Connecticut and New York. I extend my heartfelt thanks to the PSEG Fossil employees for their professionalism throughout the sale process, which resulted in an impressive 2021 operating statistics that actually were among the best in our history. PSEG Fossil's commitment to operational excellence and continuous improvement will continue to inspire all of us at PSEG going forward. The closing of both Fossil sales along with other key priorities achieved during 2021 will support our pursuit of a robust set of regulated and contracted opportunities. PSEG is focused on clean energy and infrastructure investments to drive regulated utility growth with a vision toward powering a future where people use less energy, and it's cleaner, safer and delivered more reliably than ever. PSEG's improved business mix further enhances an already compelling environmental, social and governance profile and will help us achieve that powering progress vision. Let me take a minute to recap a few significant accomplishments from last year. PSE&G initiated investments in its $2 billion Clean Energy Future program that has expanded the traditional definition of rate base while helping New Jersey to achieve its clean energy goals and importantly, will provide customers with options to lower their bills. PSE&G also settled the potential challenge to the return on equity in its FERC transmission formula rate last July, resulting in reduced rates for customers and eliminating a regulatory overhang. In addition, our energy strong investments prove their value in the aftermath of a devastating tropical storm Ida last August, despite floodwaters approaching five-feet in height in parts of New Jersey, all of the Energy Strong hardened substations remained operational and help to minimize customer outages across our system. PSEG Power secured a second three-year term of zero emission certificates, which will carry us through May of 2025, and help to preserve the state's carbon-free nuclear generating resource. We detailed these and other accomplishments at last September's Investor Day, which highlighted a company built around a 2022 business mix that is projected to be 90% regulated. This more predictable and visible earnings platform has enabled PSEG to provide a multiyear earnings growth rate of 5% to 7% from the 2022 guidance midpoint to 2025. PSEG also announced at last year's Investor Day that we would pursue a $500 million share repurchase program and raised the 2022 annual dividend by nearly 6% to $2.16 per share. We have completed half of that repurchase program, and we'll be executing the remaining $250 million in the near future. In addition, our Board of Directors recently declared a $0.54 per share first quarter 2022 dividend at the indicative $2.16 per share annual rate. Supporting our strong financial capabilities is our commitment to operational excellence and continuous improvement. I'm proud to report that for 2021, PSE&G achieved better-than-top decile rankings and OSHA scores for safety and SADE scores, which is an industry standard for reliability as shown on Slide 8. The Utilities JD Power Customer Satisfaction scores improved in both its electric and gas areas and in each of the residential and business customer segments. These results were our highest cumulative scores to date, achieving top quartile ranking in the Eastern group in 3 of the 4 studies. In addition, for the 20th year in a row, PA Consulting recognized PSE&G with its ReliabilityOne Award as the most reliable electric utility in the Mid-Atlantic region. After a sustained period of low natural gas prices, New Jersey and the rest of the country is experiencing increases in energy prices. This has resulted in PSE&G implementing two 5% gas rate increases for this winter's heating season. Yet following these adjustments, our typical gas residential customer bills are still the lowest among our regional peers. On the electric side, monthly residential bills remain below our peer group average, and default supply rates will actually decline this coming June, based on the results of New Jersey's basic generation service auction earlier this month. This will result in a decrease in the average PSE&G electric bill of about 2.8%. Including the BGS rate reduction in June and other requested changes, the combined bill of a typical residential customer will be at least 20% lower compared to more than a decade ago, and 35% to 40% lower when you take into account inflation. Next month, in March, the statewide moratorium on shutoffs to residential electric and gas service, which began in March of 2020, is set to be lifted. And PSE&G in partnership with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and several community groups, is helping customers enroll in several payment assistance programs. Now turning to our 2022 earnings guidance on Slide 9. We have narrowed the range of full year guidance for non-GAAP operating earnings to $3.35 to $3.55 per share from the $3.30 to $3.60 per share initiated last September. The subsidiary guidance ranges for 2022 are narrower also, with a slightly higher midpoint at PSE&G that is 6% above 2021 results and reflects a more predictable earnings profile and improved business mix overall. The narrowed range reflects the benefit of a full year impact of the Conservation Incentive Program and finalizing 2022 pension drivers updated for our December 31 performance measurement date. Last September, we introduced PSEG's five-year 2021 through 2025 Capital Investment Program of $15 billion to $17 billion, with approximately 90% or $14 billion to $16 billion allocated to the utility. This plan is expected to produce 6.5% to 8% compound annual growth in rate base over that same five-year period. Recall that we added the Infrastructure Advancement Program, I'll refer to that as IAP, to our 2021 to 2025 capital plan with an investment to be made over four years to improve the reliability of the last mile or the lower voltage of our electric distribution system. This will also address aging substations, and gas metering and regulating stations and allow us to invest in electric vehicle charging infrastructure at our facilities to support the electrification of the utilities' vehicle fleet. We remain in discussions with the BPU with regard to our IAP proposal. And based on current status of the proceeding, we anticipate BPU action in the autumn of this year. With respect to financing our capital spending program, I will reiterate that we expect our strong cash flow, enhanced financial flexibility and solid investment-grade ratings to enable funding this $15 billion to $17 billion program, as well as our planned investment in Ocean Wind 1 without the need to issue new equity. Now before moving to Dan's financial review, I would like to touch upon some of the exciting new initiatives for future growth. These range from the new Clean Energy Future investments, which enable opportunities for rate base growth behind the meter, to supporting electrification of transportation and a growing mix of renewables into the distribution system, to expanding the aging infrastructure replacement programs that have been the hallmark of our growth this past decade. During 2021, we advanced our regional offshore wind efforts by acquiring a 25% equity interest in Ocean Wind 1 and submitting several onshore and offshore solutions into the New Jersey PJM competitive transmission solicitation with Orsted, our regional offshore wind partner, as well as through stand-alone PSE&G bids for onshore upgrades. We submitted nine solutions into the state agreement approach proposal window being pursued by the BPU with technical assistance from PJM. Seven of those proposals were jointly made with Orsted under our partnership, which we've named Coastal Wind Link. These solutions are designed to deliver thousands of megawatts of offshore wind energy into New Jersey, drawing from PSEG's extensive transmission experience, and Orsted's expertise in offshore wind energy. These projects range from single collectors at various landing points to a linked transmission network out in the ocean, with total project costs ranging from $2 billion to $7 billion. We continue to expect the third or fourth quarter 2022 decision from the BPU on this matter. We're also in discussions with Orsted regarding near-term opportunities and options to expand our offshore wind investments in the Mid-Atlantic by way of our joint ownership of the Garden State Offshore Energy side and Orsted's recent award of the Skipjack 2 project. Turning to our climate advocacy efforts, we are continuing our active dialogue with federal state regulators, PJM and other stakeholders to develop regulatory and market mechanisms that appropriately recognize the value of carbon-free nuclear generation over the long term. As a top 10 producer of carbon-free energy in the United States with a coal-free fuel mix, we're especially supportive of the nuclear production tax credit and clean energy incentives proposed in previous legislative efforts and are hopeful that the broad support for the clean energy measures will result in new legislative proposals in coming months. Let us move through our updated environmental, social and governance summary on Slide 11, where you can see our comprehensive and growing list of action items as well as an equally impressive list of recognition. In 2021, we not only accelerated and expanded PSEG's climate vision by 20 years to net-zero 2030 covering scopes one and two for our entire operations. We also made a significant commitment by signing on to the United Nations Back to Race to Zero campaign, that will validate science-based targets for all 3 scopes of our mission reduction goals. We're fully engaged in meeting this commitment and look forward to updating you on our progress. PSEG was recently named to Just Capital's 2022 Just 100 ranking of America's Most Just companies. That's a lot of justs in there. And we were headed to the 2022 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index as well. Among the many ESG accomplishments and recognition we attained in 2021, I'm gratified that our corporate strategy grounded in sustainability is 1 that is appealing to ESG investors more and more. Finally, I thank the 13,000 strong PSEG workforce contributing to our solid operating and financial results in 2021. The Board of Directors' recent dividend declaration is the 18th annual increase in the last 19 years. Our 2022 dividend marks 115 consecutive years, that PSEG has paid a common dividend to shareholders, one of only a very few companies that can make such a claim. This year's $0.12 per share increase reflects our confidence in the durability of our growth strategy, as well as an ongoing commitment to returning capital to our shareholders. In summary, with the Fossil sale now behind us, we look forward to executing on our robust set of opportunities to grow both the regulated and contracted areas of our business. Solid alignment with the State of New Jersey's energy policy goals and our cost-conscious focus on the customer bill, continue to underpin our approach to regulated growth investments, that powers progress in New Jersey, which has been our core mission for the last 119 years and counting. I’ll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results, and we’ll be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everybody. As Ralph mentioned, the full year and fourth quarter 2021 PSEG reported a net loss of $1.29 per share related to the fossil sale charges and mark-to-market impacts and net income of $0.88 per share, respectively. PSEG also reported full year and fourth quarter 2021 non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.65 per share and $0.69 per share, respectively. We’ve provided you with information on Slides 15 and 17 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the fourth quarter and for the full year of 2021. And Slide 16 and 18 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, and non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And I’ll now review each company in more detail. For the full year, PSE&G net income increased by $119 million or approximately 9%, compared to 2020 results. This improvement reflects a 10% increase in rate base to $24.5 billion at year-end 2021, driven by our investment programs focused on infrastructure replacement, resiliency and beginning our Clean Energy Future investments. We also note on Slide 32, approximately $1.2 billion of Construction Work In Progress, or CWIP, mostly transmission, not included in that year-end 2021 rate base numbers. For the fourth quarter of 2021 PSE&G’s net income was $0.53 per share, compared to net income of $0.58 per share for the fourth quarter of 2020. As shown on Slide 20, transmission margin was $0.01 per share lower compared to the year earlier quarter, reflecting the formula rate settlement implemented earlier in 2021, partly offset by growth in rate base and a benefit from O&M timing. Gas margin was $0.03 per share favorable, reflecting GSMP roll-ins and the implementation of the Conservation Incentive Program, or CIP, compared to last year’s fourth quarter. Electric margin was $0.01 per share higher, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, also reflecting ongoing investments and the adoption of the CIP. O&M expense was a $0.01 unfavorable versus the year-earlier quarter. Higher distribution depreciation expense reduced results by $0.01 per share, reflecting higher planned service. Lower pension expense added $0.02 per share versus the year ago quarter, and as we signaled last quarter, flow-through taxes and other or $0.08 per share unfavorable, reflecting the expected reversal of similar positive impacts in taxes in the second and third quarter 2021 net income. The New Jersey economy continued to recover from COVID-related restrictions throughout 2021, as more people returned to work outside the home and commercial activity stabilized. For the full year, weather-normalized electric sales were flat versus 2020 and weather-normalized gas sales were slightly higher, up 0.3% over 2020. I should note with the CIP now in effect for electric and gas, growth in the number of customers, not sales, will drive net income for the utility. The number of electric and gas customer rose by approximately 1% each in 2021. PSE&G invested over $770 million during the fourth quarter of 2021 and fully executed on its planned full year $2.7 billion electric and gas infrastructure capital spending program in 2021 to upgrade transmission and distribution facilities, enhance reliability and increase resiliency, and launch its Clean Energy Future programs. We’re on track to meet our higher $2.9 billion capital plan for 2022, and while we’re seeing pockets of delays affecting certain equipment procurement, we are managing our work accordingly and do not expect that conditions will affect the overall capital plan. As detailed on Slide 31, approximately $865 million of our 2022 Capital Plan is allocated to transmission, $840 million to electric distribution, which includes over $200 million in Energy Strong II, $940 million in gas distribution, which includes over $400 million for GSMP II, and $275 million for our award-winning energy efficiency programs. Of these amounts, the vast majority, about 90%, receives contemporaneous or near-contemporaneous regulatory treatment, either through the FERC formula rate cause recovery mechanisms or recovered in base rates as replacement spend or new business. As a reminder, the Conservation Incentive Program is now in effect for both electric and gas sales with the implementation for the electric side of the business last June and for gas last October. This mechanism removes the variations of weather economic activity, efficiency and customer usage from our financial results, resetting margins to a baseline level per customer. The mechanism supports PSE&G’s ability to promote maximum customer participation in energy efficiency programs without the loss of margin from lower sales, and retains earnings impacts based on the number of customers. And as a reminder, PSE&G suspended its gas weather-normalization charge in October 2021 when the gas CIP began. We continue to expect the remaining balance of PSE&G’s Clean Energy Future filings, which includes energy storage and the remaining EV programs, will be addressed in future stakeholder proceedings. Moving on to Power. For the full year 2021, PSEG Power reported a net loss of $4.09 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.86 per share, respectively. For the fourth quarter of 2021, PSEG Power had net income of $0.40 per share, an increase of $0.10 per share compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Power also reported fourth quarter non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.21 per share, an increase of $0.11 per share over the year earlier quarter. In both instances, the quarterly improvement mainly reflected the cessation of depreciation expense related to the Fossil sale and lower interest expense following the redemption of PSEG Power’s remaining long-term debt in October of 2021. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA totaled $179 million for the quarter and $896 million for the full year 2021. This compares to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $182 million and $990 million for the fourth quarter and full year 2020, respectively. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax, interest expense, depreciation and amortization. The earnings release and Slide 25 provide you with a detailed analysis of the items having an impact on PSEG Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income quarter-over-quarter from changes in revenue and cost. And we’ve also provided you with added detail on generation for the fourth quarter and the full year on Slide 26. Gross margin for both the fourth quarter and full year 2021 was $30 per megawatt hour, a decline of $2 per megawatt hour over the fourth quarter and full year of 2020, mainly reflecting prior recontracting at lower prices. As we turn to Power’s operations, total generation output for the fourth quarter of 13.3 terawatt hours was 9% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity of 88.5% during the quarter producing 7.6 terawatt hours, which represented 57% of total generation. The combined cycle fleet produced 5.7 terawatt hours of output and operated at a 49.4% capacity factor. For the full year, 2021 generation totaled 54 terawatt hours, up 2% over 2020. And the nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 91.9% for the full year, and produced over 31 terawatt hours of carbon-free baseload power, representing 58% of total generation. PSEG is forecasting total baseload nuclear generation of 31 terawatt hours for the full year 2022, hedged 95% to 100% at an average price of $29 per megawatt hour, representing an approximate $3 per megawatt hour decline from2021. For 2023, nuclear generation is forecasted to be 31 terawatt hours and is 85% to 90% hedged at an average price of $28 per megawatt hour. And for 2024, total nuclear generation is forecasted to be 30 terawatt hours and is hedged 45% to 50% at an average price of $31 per megawatt hour. For 2022, PJM capacity prices, determined in previous auctions, are expected to provide approximately $150 million of revenue for our nuclear units. This is based on EMAC pricing of $166 per megawatt day for the first five months, followed by a scheduled decline to $98 per megawatt day for the last seven months of 2022. The next PJM capacity auction for the 2023 to 2024 delivery year is expected to be held in June of 2022. Now let me briefly address results of Enterprise and Other, where we reported a net loss that increased by $0.02 per share, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 as a result of higher contributions to the PSEG Foundation and interest expense, partly offset by lower taxes. PSEG ended 2021 with approximately $2.9 billion of available liquidity, including cash on hand of $818 million and debt representing 57% of our consolidated capital. During 2021, PSEG issued $715 million of senior notes at 84 basis points due November 2023 and $715 million of 2.45% senior notes due 2031. And we also retired $300 million of senior notes at maturity. As Ralph mentioned earlier, PSEG redeemed all remaining outstanding senior notes of PSEG Power in connection with the sale of Power’s Fossil generating units. The receipt of the Fossil sale proceeds supports the share repurchase program and provides cash to help repay funds borrowed from the parent for the power debt redemption. We’re providing 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for PSE&G, with an updated description for the remaining businesses for nuclear, offshore wind, gas operations, Long Island, and other investments as well as power financing costs to be described as carbon-free infrastructure and other. For the full year of 2022, PSE&G’s net income is forecasted at $1,510 million to $1,560 million, and reflects the benefit of contemporaneously recovered investments and the full year benefit of the CIP. Non-GAAP operating earnings for carbon-free infrastructure and other is forecasted at $170 million to $220 million. PSEG’s 2022 operating earnings will exclude results from the Fossil assets and the free cash flow previously generated from the Fossil units translates into an adjustment in the purchase price. PSEG also raised its common dividend by $0.12 per share to the indicative annual level of $2.16, a 5.9% increase over 2021. The 2022 indicative rate represents a 63% payout ratio of consolidated earnings at the midpoint of our 2022 guidance and utility earnings alone are expected to cover 140% of the dividend at the midpoint of 2022 guidance. That concludes our formal remarks. To summarize the non-GAAP results for the quarter was $0.69 per share for the full year were $3.65 per share. And for 2022 we’ve narrowed our guidance to $3.35 to $3.55 per share. With regulated operations contributing about 90%. The narrowing of our guidance reflects the setting of our 2022 pension expense, which incorporates strong investment returns through year end 2021, offset by a more conservative portfolio composition, given a strong year end funded status. As Ralph mentioned, our strong cash flow, improved financial flexibility and solid investment grade profile will enable us to fund PSEG’s five year $15 billion to $17 billion capital program, as well as our planned Ocean Wind 1 investment without the need to issue new equity. And with that, Ralph and I are ready to take your questions.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet from JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just what to start with, given the significant intention on offshore projects and cost increases here, I just wanted to get your latest thoughts on this part of the business. And if there’s any color you could provide on kind of return expectations.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Jeremy. Yes, I think our message has been pretty consistent on this, that we look at the returns and that could come from these projects and it’s just upon them being above our regulated opportunities. The nature of the relationship with the state is that the commercial risk is minimized by virtue of the fixed price with escalators, but this clearly operational construction risk that would exceed what we’re normally accustomed to in the utility. So we look at the earnings accretion potential in those returns and we haven’t given a specific number except to say that they have to be higher than the utility. And we’re pleased that we think it’s a regional opportunity for us, the state’s committed to going forward. I will say there’s been a lot of discussion around this topic of late, and it just feels like some of the enthusiasm and exuberance for this that we questioned early on has been tamped down a bit, but over that period of time, we’ve learned a lot more about the capabilities and skills of our partner, and we’ve learned a lot more about the commitment of other states and the development of the supply chain. Some of the regulatory hurdles that have been eased by virtue of some state actions and some federal actions. So our initial early caution has actually been diminished and it feels like the lines are converging in terms of what the return expectations are from these projects. But suffice to say that we do have an internal set target, and we’ll be disciplined about making sure that we exceed that.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That’s very helpful. Thank you for that. And then just wondering as you look into D.C., if there are any thoughts you could share with regards to not maybe build back better itself, but the energy policy elements there, and if you see hope for that past moving forward in some fashion?
Ralph Izzo:
I do. I mean I think we’re all right now in a little bit of a holding pattern. Clearly, there are current events that are superseding build back better and issues around energy policy. I do think, however, though, the current events are going to motivate additional conversation around energy policy and how comfortable are we as a nation with sort of the increased globalization of gas prices, right? I mean gas markets used to be very, very regional, very tightly priced. And clearly, some of the dependency that our allies in Europe have on Russian gas is going to be a factor in LNG exports, which is going to be a factor in prices here in the U.S. So I think we have a new dynamic that over the long-term has a positive read through to our nuclear fleet and to renewable energy. The near-term is going to be a little bit tougher to predict. But I think in general, I’m optimistic that the provisions that were first motivated by climate change and now I think can also be motivated by energy security are both positive forces for us.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great. Thank you for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Hi. Can you hear me? Ralph, I just wanted to get your perspective on the value of nuclear to sort of PSEG and more broadly kind of in the market? I mean, obviously, you envision some sort of a policy change at the federal level. And as a follow-up, just given the recent public mark for the asset, how do these sort of factors play into the value proposition for long-term ownership of the nuclear assets? I guess, sum it all up, do you see value to transitioning to a pure distribution business – single-state pure distribution business?
Ralph Izzo:
So Shar, it’s good to hear from you. I’m going to ask you to have a little bit of patience with us as we focus on that question. And the reality is we’re going to let our investors determine, who the logical owner of nuclear is in the future. Our priority is right now the continued outstanding operations that we’ve realized. And Dan talked about a 92% capacity. In fact, I think it was 91.9%. I can’t re-round those numbers up. And we just talked to Jeremy about the importance of nuclear from a climate change and energy security point of view. I think I’m confident we can resolve those issues, if not at the federal level, certainly at the New Jersey state level within the calendar year. And once that’s done, if PSE&G doesn’t get the kind of recognition that it deserves, that I believe it deserves in the market, co-located with nuclear, then I think the market will really be signaling us that maybe we’re not the natural owners of it. But there’s a couple of things that I want to get done before we jump to any conclusions, because it is a well-run operation that contributes to earnings and is a fairly steady earnings producer. I mean, it’s not – we’re not hedging the spark spread here. We’re not following full requirements to load contracts. We’re a base load generator that can be hedged pretty comfortably over a three-year period, and be part of a fairly stable earnings stream. But as is often the case with us, we pay very careful attention to what the market and our investors are telling us. And I will give you a more definitive answer to that in the not-too-distant future, but right now, we’ve got just a couple of tasks ahead of us that we want to resolve.
Shar Pourreza:
No, that’s helpful. And that’s pretty consistent to what you’ve been saying. So thank you for that. And then just maybe just the CapEx question here. The current plan remains at around $17 billion top end. What level of spending, if any, just remind us, is embedded for offshore wind, the transmission proposals and any supporting infrastructure? And do you have an update around Ocean Wind 2? Sorry, sorry, if you highlighted that, but I had to jump on late. Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And maybe we’re following accounting a little bit. But if you think about what’s in that $15 billion to $17 billion, you do not have the Ocean Wind 1 investment in there. That’s going to be accounted for as an equity interest in a joint venture. So it is separate and apart from that $15 billion to $17 billion, Shar. And I would say the same with the Ocean Wind Link there. There’s some modest dollars you can think about from the standpoint of the onshore infrastructure that would be necessary that is going to support offshore wind more generally. But the Ocean Wind Link spending – think about offshore wind as being outside of that $15 billion to $17 billion.
Shar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. And any just Ocean Wind 2? Is there any sort of updates there at all?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, nothing brand-new there, Shar. I think it’s safe to say, though, that we have a series of conversations underway that are related to Ocean Wind 2, Skipjack, potential further upside in Ocean Wind 1 and they all fall into this notion of what are the return expectations that can be derived from each of those.
Shar Pourreza:
Terrific. Thank you guys so much. Appreciated
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How are you doing?
Ralph Izzo:
Great, Paul. How are you?
Paul Patterson:
All right. So just to sort of follow-up on offshore wind and you guys with a history of being conservative and looking at risk-adjusted rate of returns and mentioning that there is quite a bit of excitement out there among parties looking to get into the business. Is there any potential of – obviously, it depends on what you see out there, but I’m wondering if you’ve been approached or is there any potential for potentially monetizing it if, in fact, you guys see more opportunity? The risk-adjusted rate of return compared to other things and what people are offering, it looks like you can maybe monetize it.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. I mean there's always that opportunity, right. Paul, you never say never, I just said never. I mean, we monetized the social – the solar assets that we had 400-plus megawatts. So that could be something. I think it's premature to monetize something that still has a pretty robust growth trajectory and is right in our regional wheelhouse and has some enormous potential from a transmission point of view. But yes, I mean, we would always be open to that. I mean our core business is the regulated utility. It's beyond core. It's the dominant part of our business, right, 90%. But folks always know we're open to inquiries that enhance shareholder value.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to the – you mentioned the PJM and the BPU selection for transmission associated with offshore wind in the Q3 and Q4. I'm just curious, is that just going to be an announcement of – do you think there'll be any short list that will be provided sort of in the interim? Or do you think it's just going to be a sort of a selection of the winner, so to speak, or the winners when it's finalized?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So the short answer to that is I don't know. I mean, the BPU has always prided itself on transparency and visibility and public outreach. So that would lead me to say, yes. But I think so little will be known just coming out of PJM in terms of the other criteria that the BPU may want to apply that would lead me to say, no, that it would be too premature. So the most accurate answer is we just don't know. We have some vague dates that have been given to us. We do know that the BPU wants to get this done before the next solicitation, which goes out, I think, in the third quarter. And so if you want people to bid an offshore wind farm based upon knowledge of what they might have by way of transmission assets, then that would argue for Q3 results from the BPU. But there's a lot of flexibility built into the SAA approach that allows the BPU to take advantage of the transmission proposals or not, depending upon what the ultimate wind farm there is that gets proposed.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. And then just finally on electric efficiency and that you guys are big on making a big effort in that. I'm just sort of – and I realize the way the investment works and what have you. But I'm just sort of wondering what – given COVID and everything, it looks like essentially growth was sort of flat this year. Over the next several years or next three to four years, what do you expect sales growth to sort of be in your region given COVID and of course, the energy efficiency efforts that you guys are making a big effort on?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So I mean I think we have a less than 1% projected growth rate for electric sales. We're going to do our best to turn that into a negative number. Because, again, our business is not predicated on electric sales. It's predicated on electric value and with an aging infrastructure that cannot meet the challenges of today's weather patterns or today's customer expectations. We have a huge task ahead of us of replacing that aging infrastructure. And the customer side of the meter, there's a huge opportunity set for us in the point of view of customer bills and climate change impact. And again, this isn't Foo Foo Dust. I mean, the way in which we continue to make money off these infrastructure investments is by basically sharing the fuel cost savings with our customers, but we're not the fuel business. So that's a real win-win for us and our customers.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Paul, just what Ralph is referencing is as we went into this upsize of the energy efficiency program in conjunction with the state, I mean it's about a tenfold increase in our investment amount. And so it was increasingly important at that point to ensure that lost revenues from those sales did not create a disincentive with respect to the program. So that's when this conservation center program went in place that essentially separated the sales volumes and the revenue that we see from the volume of the product that we sell. And so that all made sense to get all of the incentives aligned, but it also dampened the implications to us from the standpoint of what sales are. It's more about numbers of customers than it is about actual sales volumes.
Paul Patterson:
That’s really helpful. Thanks so much appreciate it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research.
Ralph Izzo:
Hello.
Dan Cregg:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just checking handy, so one quick question. You gave a stat on the bill impact from BGS. I think it was – I think I heard 2.8%, something like that. Was that the supply rate? Or is that the average bill? And just maybe a quick headline on what – how that sort of works?
Ralph Izzo:
That's the bill impact, Jonathan, the whole bill, not just the supply rate.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And that's based on the auction that just happened effectively.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, that was driven by – you may recall, because of the delays in PJM capacity auctions. There was an assumed capacity price that was in prior BGS auctions that ended up being much higher than what the actual capacity price turned out to be.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. Okay. That's great. Thank you. And then I did – can you – sorry if I missed this, but could you maybe just talk, Ralph, about where you are on your efforts with the state to term out your nuclear?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Yes. So by the way, that 2.8% bill impact was by way of reminder, that's a residential number. It obviously varies by rate cost. I think – we've now had three spirited conversations about the importance of nuclear in New Jersey in the last four years. We had the creation of the legislation for the ZECs and we had two rounds of ZECs. And my sense from policy leaders, both elected officials, regulators, key staff members, is we need these plants to run at least until 2050, which is actually beyond the current license. And asking ourselves that question every three years, the sentiments are it just sort of being and nobody really has that in them. So there's very much a strong desire to expand the duration of the support. There's an equally strong desire to see what happens at the Federal level, however, before one acts on that. Yes, just a simple thing to think about, Jonathan, I won't take all with this is, right now, the New Jersey legislation says, if its Federal money for the carbon attributes of nuclear than the state ZEC support goes down. Well, if you were to take the proposed production tax credit, as it was originally envisioned, and build back better, what that would mean is that as power prices went up, the state ZEC dollars would go down, would go up, I'm sorry, because the Federal money goes down as power prices go up. So power prices rise, state increases its ZEC contribution. Power prices go down, state decreases its ZEC contribution. That's exactly the opposite of good public policy, right? So hopefully, I didn't confuse you with that, but I'm sure that we can clarify further if need be. The point is that the state policy should be working in partnership with whatever the Federal policy is, and that's not been established as yet.
Jonathan Arnold:
So just in terms of how – because if it takes us a while, if Federal issues are sort of pushed off to the right, like is there some chance we could have action in the states this year or just any thoughts about timing?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. No, we've already started those conversations, and we would – of course, we would follow the lead of our legislators and our governor, but we would encourage action sometime this year to certainly begin in anticipation of what a Federal outcome might look like. But hopefully, we would be able to initiate that action based upon Federal resolution. It's just tough to estimate what a Federal calendar might look like in light of the very complex set of issues facing us in Washington right now.
Jonathan Arnold:
And just to tie things together. If I hear you right, you're not inclined to sort of make a strategic decision about nuclear until these things have sort of had time to work out, but you did say you would be fine to give us an update relatively soon. So just trying to square those two statements.
Ralph Izzo:
That's exactly right. Look, the reality is people have already expressed an interest in our nuclear plants, and they're outstanding assets. The issue is how do you firm up the longer-term economic treatment beyond a three-year time frame. And I think we're the ones who are best positioned to do that, whether with a natural owner or somebody else's. And that's what we're hard at work to resolve right now.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And Jon, another thing maybe to think a little bit about is that there's been
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. Maybe just one quick housekeeping item. You said you've done half of the $500 million. How much of that was done so before year-end, and then I guess we'll get this in the K, but any chance of the year-end share count, just to help us with model?
Dan Cregg:
Not having that precise number in front of you, I'll make you wait for that. But you can think of it more as being a 2022 than a 2021 event.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you guys.
Jonathan Arnold:
Got you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo from Bank of America.
Unidentified Analyst:
Actually, Julian on for Paul. Yes. Good morning everyone. Thanks for the time. Just wanted to come back to the – yes, good morning. Just quickly, I wanted to come back to the nuclear conversation and apologies to do it. With respect to credit metrics, obviously would you anticipate your credit metrics to be further relaxed to the extent of which you were to divest it? I just want to understand some of the incremental latitude to the extent to which you see that? And then separately, how do you think about like a litmus test on earnings accretion? Or given the thing that would be involved, could it be value accretive to divest without earnings? I'm just sort of thinking conceptually without asking that time line?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Julien, I think on the – we haven't given a precise number with respect to where things would go. I think if you think about where the credit metrics moved from the standpoint of with and without fossil, I think that there's probably increment in that same direction with respect to nuclear. And so I think there has not been a firm number that we put out, but I think you would become even more regulated and that would be positive from a credit perspective. And I don't think there's an accretion dilution answer to give you necessarily. I mean, we would take a look at the overall value, the accretion dilution on the ground, but also the valuation of the company that Ralph was talking about before. So we look at both of those aspects with respect to what we've been doing in that situation.
Unidentified Analyst:
Right. But the point is it doesn't necessarily need to be earnings accretive in order to move forward, given as you all think about the risk weight out there?
Ralph Izzo:
Value that matters, right? Quality of earnings multiple expansion.
Dan Cregg:
Yes.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Excellent. And then just a quick follow-up here on the IEP. How conversations with stakeholders progressed on the remaining infrastructure program here? I mean do you see the opportunity to achieve a constructive stipulation before the autumn time line that you talked about a moment ago?
Ralph Izzo:
We've had a pretty good track record of resolving these issues through settlement process, and that would be my prediction here again, Julien. So – but you can never guarantee that. But we're proposing to do things that are completely consistent with the state energy master plan. That is a huge social justice component associated with it in terms of job creation for underemployed members of our community. So I really think it's a perfect fit for things that the state has said it wants to do. So I would be very surprised if we couldn't settle something eventually, but can't guarantee it.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. So look for something in the summer or something like that?
Ralph Izzo:
I think so. It's early autumn.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Exellent. We will leave it there. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Let's see, it's been a thorough call, but maybe just one question I had was the thoughts on customer growth going forward after posting 1% growth in both electric and gas this past year. Wondering if that's in the ballpark that you would expect going forward?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. I think that's a reasonable number to use on a go-forward basis. It's if we look back over time and forward, you're kind of in that ballpark. That's a reasonable assumption, David.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Great. And then maybe just any thoughts on the timing of the remaining $250 million in buybacks?
Daniel Cregg:
We haven't put a firm data out there, but I think our language that we said was in the near future. And so I would think about it fairly near term.
David Arcaro:
Okay, great. Thanks. That’s all I had.
Daniel Cregg:
Thanks, David.
Carlotta Chan:
Juli, we’ll take one more question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sophie Karp from KeyBanc.
Sophie Karp:
Hi, good morning and thank you for the update and the call. Just one question, if I may. Could you comment on kind of like the recent spike energy prices will impact you've seen in your customer bills? And I appreciate your comments that you're not in the energy business, right? But your customers are, nonetheless, presumably seeing some spikes in their overall bills and how bad is it right now? And do you expect that these increases will somehow inform the some future proceedings with the BPU or elsewhere?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Sophia, I think that the mechanisms that New Jersey uses leaves us some pretty good stead with respect to what you're seeing here. And it works both ways. So we've seen commodity prices come down over time, and the mechanisms at a slower kick in of some of those reductions, which they have seen. And when you see spikes in time, the impact similarly are going to be slower to find their way to the bill. And frankly, the duration of those spikes might be such that they don't find their way on the bill. And what I mean by that one is, if you think about the BGS auction that we referenced earlier that just happened, that was a re-up of one-third of the obligation to customers for three years with the other two-thirds being based upon the last two year auctions. And so those auctions happen once a year in February, starting in June. So the – depending upon what you see from a pricing impact and how long it lasts, you'll either see one-third of the supply side move through over time and increase or to the extent that you have shorter-term perturbations that don't get bid into that February auction, you won't see it at all. So we talked about an overall reduction from the most recent auction. And again, that was driven by the update to the capacity prices going from using a prior price to using what the actual prices actually were and that true-up was a big driver in bringing that build down. On the gas side, we can implement 5% increases to the bill, and we have done that as we have stepped through time. But in the overall scheme of things, those are limited in how they get moved through. So I think you don't see spikes on customer bills. You tend to see things get moderated by virtue of the mechanisms that have been put in place, which I think are very helpful from that perspective. And if you do see longer-term changes in prices, that's when you're going to start to see things move its way through the bill.
Sophie Karp:
Terrific. Thank you. Very helpful color. Appreciated.
Daniel Cregg:
Thanks, Sophie.
Operator:
That is all the time that we have for questions. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Okay. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us. Hopefully, you've gotten the information you need. But I know from Carlotta and Dan, that we will be on the road at a couple of major conferences coming up in the next few days, and we'll be more than happy to meet with folks and provide greater clarity. But at the end of the day, I just can't help but overemphasize, we are well on track to deliver on what we promised we would deliver last September. The dividend increase is in place. The share repurchase program is well underway. The growth rate is intact. And we are 90% regulated utility and another the 10% is basically a contract on Long Island, strong nuclear operations and an ongoing gas supply contribution. So we're excited about the opportunities and prospects going forward in terms of the utility capital program being the underlying driver of our growth. But the additional augmented opportunities that may come from regional offshore wind, all under a very, very strong balance sheet that is in the – as far as the eye can see, not in need of additional equity. So – we can provide more color when we see you in person, and we look forward to that opportunity. Thank you all. Have a safe and good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect, and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Jesse, and I'm your event operator for today. I'd like to welcome everyone to today's conference entitled to Public Service Enterprise Group Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, November 2, 2021, and will be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's Investor Relations website at investor.pseg.com. I'll now turn the call over to your moderator for today, Carlotta Chan. Ma'am, you may go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Jesse. Good morning. PSEG has posted its third quarter 2021 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company on our website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income or loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings material. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Marla, and to all of you for joining us on our call this morning. As you have seen, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.98 per share for the third quarter of 2021 versus $0.96 per share in the year ago quarter. GAAP results for the third quarter were at $3.10 per share net loss related to transition charges at PSEG Power, and they compare with a $1.14 per share of net income for the third quarter of 2020. In this year's quarter, PSEG Power recorded a pretax impairment loss of approximately $2.17 billion to reflect the announced sale of its fossil generating fleet that includes $13 million of other related costs. Results for the third quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the first 9 months of 2021 to $2.96 per share. The 6.5% increase over non-GAAP results of $2.78 per share for the first 9 months of 2020 reflects the growing contribution from our regulated operations and continued derisking at PSEG Power. Slides 12 and 14 summarize the results for the third quarter and the first 9 months of 2021. The third quarter of 2021 was one of the most significant in recent PSEG history. Since July, we've announced the sale of Power fossil fleet and reached the transmission rate settlement that will help lower customer build. In addition, at our recent investor conference, we announced an increase in our 5-year capital spending plan by $1 billion, a $0.12 per share increase to the common stock dividend for 2022, a $500 million share repurchase program expected to be implemented upon the close of the fossil sale and initiated a 5% to 7% long-term earnings growth projection over the 2022 to 2025 period. On the ESG front, we advanced our decarbonization efforts with the elimination of coal in our fuel mix this past June. Our participation in the New Jersey Wind port and ongoing consideration of regional offshore wind opportunities in generation and transmission, demonstrates our alignment clean energy agenda. And our Clean Energy Future program was recently named a star of energy efficiency recipient in . Of critical importance, we have staked out a leadership position in the industry by accelerating our net 0 vision to 2030 and joining the UN-backed Race to Zero campaign that will put us on a test to establish science-based targets to all of our missions across Scopes 1, 2 and 3. Later this week, I will be attending the conference of parties referred to as COP 26 to engage with policymakers and further support emissions reduction goals. This includes advocating for climate action now and advancing the case for preserving existing nuclear generation. This month, we issued a combined sustainability and climate report that outlines our progress to date and commitments for the future. We intend to continue taking meaningful climate action in response to the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather in our service area. Speaking of extreme weather, tropical storm Ida soaks parts of New Jersey was nearly 9 inches of rain within a 24-hour period and caused extensive flooding throughout the state. Our past and current Energy Strong investments that hardened flood-pro energy infrastructure brought tremendous benefit to customers during Ida, minimizing the damage to adaptive substations and switching stations and keeping them operational. That said, the extreme weather did read Havoc throughout our service area and our thoughts go out to the families who lost loved ones to the storm and to the community still recovering from flood damaged homes and businesses. To continue these enhancements and bring them closer to the customer, we are expanding our reliability improvement programs to the last mile of work we will propose in our upcoming infrastructure advancement program, which we plan to file with the BPU in a few days. This proposal, if approved, would direct approximately $848 million of investment over a 4-year period to improve the reliability of our electric distribution system, addressing aging substations and gas metering and regulating stations and electric vehicle charging infrastructure at PSE&G facilities that will support the planned electrification of the utility fleet, all of this while serving the dual purpose of creating important high-quality jobs and helping to further stimulate the New Jersey economy. The foundation of results for the quarter was the solid operating performances by both PSE&G and PSEG Power. This summer, the third hottest on record contributed to the hottest first 9 months we've ever recorded, pushing a number of total hours with temperatures exceeding 90 degrees or greater, nearly 65% higher than the same period in 2020 and versus normal, thereby increasing peak demand. The conservation incentive program effective since June 1 for electric and October 1 for natural gas provides recovery for variations in customer usage due to weather, economic conditions and energy efficiency, thereby enabling the utility to promote maximum customer participation in energy efficiency programs without the loss of margin from lower sales. This also has a stabilizing effect on our margins more broadly. The continued reopening of the New Jersey economy is unwinding some of the shift in sales experienced during most of 2020. Residential electric sales declined adjusted for weather as more people return to work, school and other activities outside the home, partly offset by higher commercial and industrial sales. Due to the warmer-than-normal summer weather and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the daily peak load for the quarter topped out at 9,620 megawatts compared to last year's third quarter daily peak, which was slightly less at 9,557megawatts. Our peak load for the year remains the 10,064 megawatts we hit on June 30, which exceeded the 10,000 megawatt mark for the first time since 2013. Moving to the Zero Carbon and infrastructure side of PSEG. We recently announced that we have submitted several joint proposals to New Jersey's competitive state agreement approach, open window to build offshore wind transmission infrastructure. These joint proposals submitted with Orsted are collectively named the coastal wind link and leverage the experienced partnership of PSEG and Orsted in New Jersey energy infrastructure, our commitment to diverse suppliers and our mature working relationships with local building and construction trades. The proposals cover onshore upgrades, new onshore transmission connection facilities, new offshore transmission connection facilities and a networked offshore transmission system in any stand-alone configuration or combination. PJM is providing the technical analysis and recommendations to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, who will make the final decisions based on an evaluation of reliability and economic benefits, cost, constructability, environmental benefits, permitting risks and other myriad New Jersey benefits. A BPU decision is not expected before the third or fourth quarter of 2022. FERC has granted PJM's request to delay the next capacity auction covering the 2023, 2024 energy year to late January 2022. This revised time line places the 2024, 2025 auction into August of 2022 and the '25-'26 auction into February of 2023. These upcoming capacity auctions will provide additional surety to the gross margin of our nuclear fleet in the outer years of our 2021 to 2025 planning horizon. Nuclear Power's economic struggles are a national challenge that call for a broad federal solution so that individual states like New Jersey aren't shouldering more than their share of the loan. We are continuing efforts to secure support for existing at-risk nuclear plants in the federal tax code, the House version of the build back better infrastructure legislation currently contains an 8-year production tax credit for existing nuclear at $15 per megawatt hour, with the value of the credit declining as market revenues increase. The proposal has support in the Senate and from the Biden administration. While passage is not assured , this would be an impactful provision for the nation's nuclear fleet, and we are hopeful that commerce can enact this fall. You may recall that the New Jersey's ZEC law contained considerable customer protections and specifically requires that state 0 emission certificate payments that I just referred to a moment ago as ZEC payments, be offset by any out-of-market payment compensating nuclear for the same 0 carbon attribute. Specific to the nuclear production tax credit, the value of the PTC for our New Jersey units would reduce the ZEC payment up to the maximum $10 per megawatt hour. However, the ZEC would not reduce the value of the PTC and our share of the 2 Pennsylvania peach bottom units would benefit from the full production tax credit. Moving forward, there needs to be broad recognition at both the state and federal level of the value of nuclear 0 carbon attributes both for the quality of air today and the climate tomorrow. To avoid backsliding for decades to come, we need to ensure that the long-term viability of New Jersey's nuclear generation is preserved as we bring more clean energy resources into the mix. Turning my attention to guidance. We are raising our forecast for full year 2021 non-GAAP operating earnings to a range of $3.55 per share to $3.70 per share from the prior range of $3.50 to per share. And this is based on results in the first 9 months of the year. Results for the third quarter and the first 9 months incorporate the planned August 1 implementation of PSE&G's transmission rate settlement. In addition full year forecasted results also reflect PSEG Power cessation of depreciation expense on the fossil assets based upon the move to held to sale accounting treatment in August while otherwise continuing to contribute to consolidated results. We are also reaffirming PSEG's 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.30 to $3.60 per share. We remain on track to execute on PSE&G's 2021 planned capital spend of $2.7 billion. This spend is part of PSEG's consolidated 5-year $15 billion to $17 billion capital plan, which we still intend to execute without the need to issue new equity offer the opportunity for consistent and sustainable growth in our dividend. Following the close of the peak of the fossil sale, PSEG will be a 90% regulated and predominantly contracted platform of stable carbon-friendly businesses. As we continue to execute on this strategy as well as on the significant financial announcements made in our recent investor conference, we remain fully dedicated to providing our shareholders with the premier opportunity to pursue sustainable growth in earnings and dividends with an industry-leading ESG platform. I'll turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results, and we'll make sure -- make myself available for your questions after his remarks.
Daniel Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of $0.98 per share versus $0.96 per share in last year's third quarter. We provided you with information on Slides 12 and 14 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter and the year-to-date period, and Slides 13 and 15 containing corresponding waterfall charts that take you through the net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. So now I'll review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $389 million or $0.77 per share for the third quarter of 2021 compared with net income of $313 million or $0.61 per share for the third quarter of 2020. PSE&G's third quarter results rose by $0.16 per share over third quarter 2020 and reflect revenue growth from ongoing capital investments as well as one-time items. Growth in transmission rate base added $0.01 per share for third quarter net income even after incorporating the August 1 implementation of PSE&G's transmission rate settlement, which FERC in October return on equity and our formula rate can 9.9%. Electric margin added $0.02 per share to net income compared to the year ago quarter as the conservation incentive program, combined with energy strong to roll ins more than offset a reduction in weather-normalized volumes. Gas results were $0.04 favorable compared to the year ago quarter, reflecting the absence of the gas weather normalization clause reversal in the third quarter of 2020. O&M expense was $0.01 per share favorable compared to the year ago quarter and nonoperating pension expense was $0.02 per share favorable compared to the third quarter of 2020. Lastly, tax expense was $0.06 favorable compared to the third quarter of 2020, driven by the timing of taxes to reflect PSE&G's lower estimated annual effective tax rate due to higher tax flowbacks in 2021. This impact is expected to reverse next quarter when PSE&G finalize its actual tax rate for the year. Moving to sales for the quarter. The weather for the third quarter of 2021 was 4% warmer than the year ago period and 22% warmer than normal, with significantly higher than normal number of hours at 90 degrees or greater. On a trailing 12-month basis, weather normalized electric sales were flat and gas sales were up nearly 2%. Growth in the number of both electric and gas customers rose by approximately 1.5% each versus the third quarter of 2020. Ralph mentioned earlier, the stabilizing impact of the conservation incentive program, now fully in effect for both electric and gas margins, resetting those margins to a baseline level. Going forward, about 95% of our electric distribution, 90% of gas distribution will be stabilized via this mechanism, which will still pass through the variation in the actual number of customers. PSE&G's capital program remains on schedule. PSE&G invested approximately $670 million in the third quarter aggregating to $1.95 billion year-to-date through September. This capital is part of 2021's $2.7 billion electric and gas capital program to upgrade transmission and distribution infrastructure, enhance reliability and increase resiliency. We continue to forecast that over 90% of PSEG's planned capital investment will be directed to the utility over the 2021 to 2025 time frame. We have raised PSE&G's forecast of net income for 2021 to $1.430 billion to $1.480 billion from $1.420 billion to $1.470 billion. Now moving to Power. Power reported a net loss of $1.933 billion or $3.84 per share for the third quarter of 2021, non-GAAP operating earnings of $119 million or $0.23 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $237 million. This compares to the third quarter 2020 net income of $254 million or $0.51 per share, non-GAAP operating earnings of $167 million or $0.33 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $349 million. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items from non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization expense and the benefit of net operating loss purchases, which are included in net income. The earnings release on Slide 23 provide you with a detailed analysis of the items having an impact on PSEG Power's non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income year-over-quarter. We've also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and for the year-to-date 2021 on Slide 24. Power's third quarter non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.10 per share lower than third quarter 2020 results. The recontracting and tire market impacts reduced results by $0.11 per share as the seasonal shape of hedging activity and higher cost to serve load versus the year ago quarter lower gross margin. The sale of the solar source portfolio earlier in the year also lowered gross margin results by $0.02 compared to the year ago quarter. The retirement of Bridgeport over 3 on May 31 and Power's last call unit lowered New England capacity revenues by $0.01 per share versus the third quarter of 2020. And gas operations were lower by $0.02 per share, reflecting the absence of a pipeline recon received in last year's third quarter. O&M expense lowered results by $0.01 per share compared to the year ago quarter as higher nuclear costs were partly offset by lower solar expenses and lower depreciation expense associated with fossil assets moving to held-for-sale accounting status and the sale of the solar source portfolio and the early retirement of Bridgeport Harbor, combined with lower interest expense to add $0.08 per share versus the year ago quarter. Lastly, taxes and other items were paying per share unfavorable compared to the third quarter of 2020. Gross margin in the third quarter of 2021 was $28 a megawatt hour compared to $33 a megawatt hour for the last year's third quarter. This decline reflects the seasonal price impact of recontracting, including the third quarter's anticipated higher portion of the $2 per megawatt hour annualized price decline in the hedged portfolio. We expect recontracting results in the fourth quarter of 2021 to moderate from Q3 levels. Now let's turn to PSEG Power's operations, with total generation output of 14.9 terawatt hours matched the output of third quarter 2020. Power's combined cycle fleet produced 6.8 terawatt hours of output in response to higher market prices. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 94.8% for the quarter, producing 8.1 terawatt hours, which represent 54% of total generation. For the balance of '21, total baseload and combined cycle generation is forecasted to be 12 to 14 terawatt hours, hedged 85% to 90% at an average price of $32 per megawatt hour. Power's third quarter activity included the announcement of the fossil sale to ArcLight in August of this year. As previously mentioned, PSEG fossil's assets have been reclassified to held for sale as of the date of the sale of the announcement. This change has prompted the cessation of depreciation and amortization expense for these held-for-sale units and resulted in a favorable impact to GAAP and non-GAAP operating earnings through the close of the sale and contributed to the increase of our 2021 full year non-GAAP operating earnings guidance. Power has raised the forecast for its non-GAAP operating earnings for 2021 to $365 million to $440 million from $350 million to $425 million. Our estimate of non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA has also been raised to $870 million to $970 million from $850 million to $950 million. Now let me briefly address operating results for Enterprise and Other, where for the third quarter, we reported a net loss of $20 million or $0.03 per share compared to net income of $8 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2020. The non-GAAP operating loss for the third quarter was $13 million or $0.02 per share compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $8 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2020. Results this quarter reflected higher tax and O&M expenses at the parent versus the year ago period. For 2021, the forecast of Enterprise and Other is unchanged at a non-GAAP operating loss of $20 million. From a financial standpoint at September 30, we had approximately $3 billion of available liquidity as well as cash and cash equivalents of $1.8 billion and debt represented 58% of our consolidated capital. PSEG Power had net cash collateral postings of $999 million at September 30 related to out-of-the-money hedge positions resulting from higher energy prices during the third quarter of 2021. It's been several years since the sustained rise in power prices has caused collateral postings of this magnitude. Our liquidity and cash position are ample and capable of accommodating additional cash collateral postings if necessary. Overall, our ratable hedging program remains an effective risk management tool that we implement over a rolling 3-year period, which smooths volatility in earnings through the averaging of forward sales and importantly locks in gross margin. Turning to financings during the quarter. In August, PSE&G issued $425 million of 1.9% secured medium-term notes due 2031. Also in August, PSEG entered into a $1.25 billion 364-day variable rate term loan agreement. In September, Power and after retirement of its 3 senior notes totaling $1.4 billion on October 8. These remaining notes were retired at a redemption price that included a make-whole premium of approximately $294 million. Following the retirement of all of its debt, PSEG Power's 8.625% senior notes due 2031 were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange effective October '18. Because PSEG Power no longer has any registered securities outstanding, we'll go through a process to terminate status of the SEC registrant. In October, Moody's lowered the credit ratings of PSE&G, PSEG Power and PSEG. The current senior secured ratings of PSE&G, are A1, A at Moody's, S&P, respectively, with stable credit outlooks from both agencies. PSEG's senior unsecured credit ratings and PSEG Power's issuer credit ratings Baa2, BBB at Moody's and S&P, respectively, also with stable outlooks from both agencies. As we outlined during the investor conference, we raised PSEG's 2021 to 2025 capital program by $1 billion to a range of $15 billion to $17 billion. We continue to anticipate execution of this 5-year capital program without the need to issue new equity as we continue to offer a compelling shareholder dividend, with the opportunity for consistent and sustainable growth. And as Ralph mentioned, we've raised our 2021 guidance of non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $3.55 to $3.70 per share based on solid results year-to-date and the benefit from cessation of depreciation on fossil assets. We also accounting the initial 2022 non-GAAP operating earnings guidance of $3.30 to $3.60 per share that we provided at the investor conference on September 27. That concludes my remarks, and Jesse. Ralph and I are ready to take questions.
Operator:
Speakers, our first question is from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off with the nuclear PTC, if I could. Just wondered if you might be able to talk a little bit more about the type of support you're seeing there, confidence that it makes it through to the end. And if it does, maybe just kind of the impact on your business helping derisk. And if there's any possible benefit the agencies could see could have a positive reaction here if this does go all the way through.
Ralph Izzo:
Jeremy, yes, so I feel very good about the bipartisan nature of the support from PTC. I would be less than candid if I didn't express some concerns and hesitation about the overriding piece of legislation to which it's attached. So the debate that's taking place, as you know, is around 2 separate pieces of legislation. One is a roughly $1 trillion bipartisan bill. So the PTC is not part of that then there's, depending upon what price accounts you believe, a $1.75 trillion to $1.85 trillion bill that is not bipartisan that is requiring reconciliation rules and full Democratic party support to get through. But the nuclear component has not attracted any controversy whatsoever. I believe the estimates in that bill is that there's about $550 billion of that legislation dedicated to climate mitigation. And it's widespread recognition that if we're going to make progress, it's got to be based upon the existing nuclear fleet still being around upon which to build that progress. So the House version has an 8 year PTC. Roughly speaking, it targets all-in $15 per megawatt hour of tax credits starting with energy prices of $25 per megawatt hour or less. And then there's a declining scale of the PTC benefit as market revenues climb above $25 per megawatt hour where every dollar above that level, $0.80 of PTC is removed. It kind of gets you to a $40 per megawatt hour or so outcome. There's a pre and post tax adjustment that needs to be mixed in that but for simplicity's sake. So it's really, I think, great news. And I think just today, for example, President Biden announced an SMR development project in Romania that's going to be done with new scale. You should check the press accounts on that. I don't want to speak for others. But it's just indicative of the support that nuclear is gaining in recognition of the pretty aggressive carbon reduction goals that need to be achieved.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, Jeremy, the other part of your question was how the rating agencies will look at it. And clearly, longer term support for nuclear is going to be much more valuable and much more stabilizing than something on a shorter term basis. And that's something that we've been pretty vocal about for quite some time. And so I think that's a positive as well. The number of years that's been tied into the PTC has moved around a little bit, ralph mentioned earlier, 8-year period. So we'll see where it goes. But I do think that what you have seen is increasing support, I think, universally, both we saw it initially in New Jersey as we went through the ZEC process and I think folks are getting on board in Washington as well.
Ralph Izzo:
I don't want to beat it to death, Jeremy, but in addition to the emphasizing our forward looking statements, I would just remind you what the history of ITC and PTC have been. They've all had 5- and 10-year life spans that have been renewed for multiple decades. So I'm not at all worried about the 8-year PTC. By the way, I do want to add one other thing that's happening at COP26 right now that's great news for us is that there is a growing consensus around a 30% reduction in methane by the year 2030. There's an article written today by Fred Krupp of EDF in the Wall Street Journal highlighting the importance of methane reduction. And that is just incredibly supportive of our Gas System Modernization Program and continued funding for that and expansion of that. So I think between nuclear, offshore wind and methane reduction, we're really quite well positioned for some important investments going forward.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. Maybe switching gears here a bit. As we look to the 4Q update and kind of the narrowing of the 22% range, can you give us a little bit more color on some of the items that have been coming in kind of ahead of plan this year and how to think about those items if they're sustainable into 2022, and this is excluding the Fossil sale impact?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. I think rather than sort of front running our own guidance, just by way of reminder, we do expect to narrow that and the real variability is around the pension. Equity markets have been strong. Interest rates have been low. They work against each other in terms of our projected benefit obligation at year end. But I don't think we want to go further than that at this point in time, Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Just wanted to try. Appreciate that. And maybe last one, if I could here. Just thinking through the potential changes at FERC and returned to a full commission. Can you frame some of your expectations moving forward both as we think about the transmission items out there in the future of the MOPR?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Well, in terms of future of the MOPR, that's -- that candidly become less of a concern for us if they announce sale. I mean energy revenues are really the primary consideration for nuclear plants. That's not to say that were completely disregard capacity revenues for our nuclear fleet. Having said that, our units have not needed to be mitigated according to the IMM. So they should be able to compete in that capacity market whatever that ends up being in the future. I'd say the other changes at FERC that we're eagerly anticipating is the recognition of the importance of transmission investment to carbon mitigation. That's a little bit of a head scratcher when you think about some of the mentioned earlier this year, about reducing the RTO adder for a transmission ROE, which seems to have quieted down right now and has given way to the ANOPR, the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, which is looking at transmission planning on a much more comprehensive basis. So I just think at a high level, the things that are being discussed and taken up are favorable to our business, both in terms of nuclear being able to participate in capacity markets, states being able to make renewable energy decisions, free of penalties from the prior version of the MOPR, which is important to state like New Jersey, where people otherwise would have been paying twice for offshore wind capacity, which would have significant crimping of the headroom on the utility bill, which now we don't have to worry about as much.
Operator:
Next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
If I can keep going with Jeremy's thought process here on reconciliation and prospects. I wanted to just focus a little bit more on some of the complementary nature of nuclear and specifically hydrogen here. I mean as you see the magnitude of that potential subsidy here and the opportunities afforded therein, how are you thinking about that being a complement to your current nuclear portfolio and strategy, understanding there's all sorts of different nuances here, but would be curious to hear these as you stand here today and assuming there is something that stays the course, how could or does this fit into a future strategy?
Ralph Izzo:
So we're closely monitoring the progress of hydrogen, Julien, but to your point, I mean, the value of it, to nuclear would be the ability to avoid any cycling of the nuclear plants and being able to then yield to the lack of dispatchability of renewables and then to just continue the base load operations in nuclear, where in some cases, the offtaker might be an electrolysis project or some other hydrogen creation. And there's a hearing, I think, this week or next week in the Senate on alternate sources of nuclear power in terms of its applicability to the health sciences and medical fields. So I think there's just a growing recognition of nuclear as a carbon mitigant and the multiple ways that we need to act to keep it around and keep it vibrant, whether it's a PTC or source for hydrogen creation or medical science. I no means want to be a skunk in the party, though I do think that there needs to be much more conversation around the safety of large scale hydrogen generation than we're seeing right now in various forms. That's an engineering challenge. But as with other engineering challenges, I'm sure there are solutions, but that does need to be discussed much more prominently than it's getting attention right now.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
And maybe related to this, if I can, how are you thinking about just hedging? I heard your comments on collateral postings earlier, but how are you thinking about taking advantage of the current commodity deck and/or, frankly, any other, should we say, long term contracting opportunities that might be arising, whether that's crypto or data centers looking above and beyond hydrogen opportunities. I mean, certainly, we haven't seen this robust, as you say, a commodity environment in sometime.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Julien, I think some of the crypto stuff is a little bit more niche opportunities. I think you should think about what we're doing as being aligned with what we've talked about in the past. I mean we still think that a multiyear hedging program for baseload power, such as nuclear, does make sense. What you saw within some of the numbers that we provided aligned very closely to if you were to just step back over time and take a look at where forward prices have been for the years that we've hedged and take a look at those hedge prices. It's consistent with exactly what we have told you that we have done on that front. That said, we have always talked a little bit too about the fact that while that's a general range, there is a little bit of a range around what we can hedge as we go through those times. And so in times like what we've seen more recently, there's been a little bit more activity to try to capture some of those prices. But if you think about it over the long run and over a 3-year hedging period, you're not going to be able to move the needle that much with respect to what's been done on the nearer term. And as you step out, while prices are a little bit backwardated, there's maybe a little bit less of an opportunity, you're into a little bit of a challenge on liquidity. So will we seek to capture some of these higher prices? Absolutely. But should you anticipate that it's going to have a very big move on the needle? I think, against the backdrop of a base of hedges that we have and the backwardation and some liquidity challenges on the back end, it will be more moderated of an impact.
Operator:
Next question is from Shar Pourrez of Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourrez:
So Ralph, just not to beat a dead horse, but just starting on the nuclear side for SEC. And you obviously, you highlighted the PTC opportunities and potential upside from federal nuclear incentives. I'm just curious, over the long term, right, as you're thinking about the portfolio, could sort of federal policy, can that change your view on keeping these assets over the long term? Or could there still be a better steward of your nuclear capital as you move towards becoming essentially a pure wires business with offshore wind optionality?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, sure. No, it's a fair question. And it's really TBD. I think the more we can make the nuclear fleet look like a regulated asset, some combination of predictable cash flows. My sense then is that would be something that investors would view more consistently within the predictable earning streams of our regulated business. But I think what we'll do is we'll let investors tell us, right? We'll -- I've not been quiet about the fact that I think given our strength of our balance sheet, the security of our dividend, the lack of a need for equity, the growth in our rate base, the regulatory relations we have, I think we're premium utility. It's not showing up in our valuation yet. So we'll get there. And then the question will be, is nuclear an adder to that ESG profile, which further enhances our premium status or not? And we'll be guided by how our investors view that. But our number one objective is, first of all, safe nuclear operations. We've achieved that. Our #2 objective is long term economic viability of those plants. I think we're on the cusp of that. And then we'll be able to better answer the important question that you raised. I'm not trying to duck it. I just rest assured, it's foremost in our thinking too.
Shar Pourrez:
No, no, I think that's a fair point. I mean that's a paraphrase. It's obviously more to come and you are sensitive to help, I guess, investors ascribe value to these assets and whether there is a terminal. Okay. Perfect. That was the first question. And then just lastly, as we're thinking about the strong performance in '21, are you starting to see some O&M flex being carried into '22, i.e., do you have sort of that ability to prefund some of the work going into the tail end of '21 that creates some contingency to execute in '22 as we're thinking about bridging from '21 being a relatively strong year into '22?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, so there's always a little bit on the margin, but it's not. I mean, the last thing you want to do to massive work management plans is uphand them and stand them on their head, right? So you would not change a nuclear fueling outage plan. You wouldn't change major maintenance on large transmission assets. Can you move some tree trimming up because the first frost hasn't hit? Yes, you can, but you're still on a 4-year cycle. So there's some incremental stuff you can do, but not big items.
Operator:
Next question is from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Just you mentioned -- I just want a little bit more clarity on the proposals that you submitted with the BPU and PJM in conjunction. Are those transmission solutions? Or is it a combination of some offshore wind with transmission?
Ralph Izzo:
So they're both. They're primarily offshore wind to, first of all, create a grid out in the ocean that connects the 7.5 gigawatts that are planned. Secondly, to bring that on to land. And third is the upgrades that are needed on land to support this injection of new supply. But it's dominated by the assumption that there will be an additional 4 gigawatts of off-shore wind developed in New Jersey.
Daniel Cregg:
But just for clarity to guess that they are both on land and at sea, but the proposals are not both generation and transmission. It is only a transmission solution. And so New Jersey is about halfway through the awards that they've had towards their goal of 7,500 megawatts of the actual generation of the turbines. And so this is essentially an effort to seek -- getting that power back to shore. So it is not incremental generation that this effort that the BPU in conjunction with PJM is pursuing. It is just a transmission solution, but it's both at sea and on land.
Durgesh Chopra:
Perfect. I appreciate that clarity. So it is regulated transmission, but it's a combination of onshore and offshore. Can you size that for us? How, again, in -- Ralph, you've previously talked about a 9-figure number in terms of transmission investment opportunities. What are we talking about in terms of size with these proposals? And when could we see you layer these projects into your CapEx plan, if approved?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So it's no longer 9 figures, it's now 10. And the schedule has not been carved in stone, but what's been said by PJM is that they would expect to make their technical assessment known to the New Jersey BPU sometime late in Q1, early Q2 next year. The BPU said that they will probably take 6 months to evaluate that. And therefore, it would not be decided prior to Q3, but they are motivated to try to make a decision before Q4 because the next solicitation of offshore wind farms as the supply piece are due at the end of next year. So the hope would be that whoever is bidding an offshore wind farm for the next tranche would have the benefit of knowing what transmission resources would be available to them.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So it sounds like Q4 -- and then any sort of guidance on capital dollars or rate base we might be looking at with these opportunities or these initial opportunities rather?
Ralph Izzo:
They range in size. And as I said, it is 10 figures. It doesn't round to 11. It would stay in the 10-figure range. But it really does depend on which or how many. If that were the case of our proposals, the BPU and PJM were to embrace.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. The only other thing I would mention, too, that may be helpful, Durgesh, is that if you think about the timing for the capital, this would run towards the back half of the decade from an in-service perspective. So if you're kind of in the 2028, 2029-ish kind of a time frame for in-service, you're going to see some of that capital come in over a somewhat longer period of time.
Operator:
Next question is from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Just to sort of follow up on those questions. With respect to the CapEx, as I recall, there was a potential for AFUDC. Is that not still the case for the offshore wind transmission projects?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, there absolutely would be, Paul. Sure.
Paul Patterson:
And so -- and I just was wondering, you got a number of projects, and I realize that it's all sort of very early, but when you've talked about the range, could you give us maybe possibly quantify just a little bit more what the range from the low end to the high end might be? Or is that just too early?
Daniel Cregg:
Are you talking about from the standpoint of investment potential?
Paul Patterson:
Yes.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. I mean I think it is a little hard to tell by virtue of a couple of things. One, it's just recently submitted and Ralph gave you the time line for when we'll start to get a determination. We feel very good about our proposals, but it's unknown exactly what's going to come back. And on top of that, there are a series of different proposals that are out there. And so the prospect of all of them actually being part of the solution is unlikely. And so you're going to get piece parts and you don't know what they're going to do from the standpoint of magnitude of bidder. So I think it's early. It's just a little bit tough to gauge. I do think -- as I said, I think we have a solid position with respect to what we have submitted. But that said, it's tough to tell exactly where they're going to go with the solutions they see and how wide they may distribute.
Paul Patterson:
Have you seen proposals from other parties so far?
Daniel Cregg:
We have not seen other's proposals. What we have seen is that the magnitude of proposals that are in, if I'm not mistaken, I think the number was 79 proposals, 79 players that are involved, we submitted ourselves 9 different proposals. So that gives you just an indication as to there's a lot of potential different ways to get at what the problem that they are trying to solve is. And so they will have to analyze all that, both from a technical, from a cost, from an ongoing operations standpoint to make their determination.
Paul Patterson:
And then with respect to the technical assessment that PJM is going to be making, do you know if that's going to be just simply given to the BPU? Or is that going to be more widely provided to people like us?
Ralph Izzo:
I suspect it will be just given to the BPU because the BPU is a decision maker here. And whether or not to be BPU makes that public or not remains to be seen. I mean, typically, the Board doesn't reveal the detailed scoring of its assessment of projects, they just announce the winners.
Operator:
Next question is from David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
Let's see, posted a good customer growth this quarter, 1.5% in electric and gas. I was wondering if you could remind us kind of how that compares to your longer term assumptions for the increase in customer count over time?
Ralph Izzo:
It's comparable. I think we're in that range. We may be just a hair below that on an ongoing basis. I think it's kind of been around 1%. It's something that we do update on a regular basis based upon the data that we get regularly. But certainly, it's a little bit lower than that, but we do see customer growth going on into the future.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then I was wondering if you could just talk about heading into the winter here for the gas business with what we've seen in natural gas prices do. Could you talk about the pressure on the customer bill heading into the winter, maybe how you have been hedged into the winter heating season? And anything, any kind of relief or strategy that you're pursuing for managing that customer bill increase here over the next couple of months?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So David, I think that the mechanisms that are in place are there and do protect the customer pretty well, both on the electric and the gas side because obviously, when gas prices go up, you see the effect on the electric prices. And so what we have and we actually referred to within our remarks is an ability to put forth a 5% increase on the commodity component of the bill 2x during the year. And so there's a -- because of some timing and some kind of a technical aspect to work through, the utilities in the state are looking through the ability to do that. So you can think about that on the gas side has been 5% and 5% is on just the supply side of things that you may end up seeing. And then most customers, I think on the electric side, the best model to think about is the provider of last resort contract for BGS. And so what folks are paying now are prices that were established this past February, the February before and the February before that, on a 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 basis. And so nothing will change from the residential standpoint until we get to next year. and the auction that will come this February will get put in place next June. What will get put in place is for 1/3 that will roll off and the remaining 2/3 will be sticky from the prior 2 auctions. So that has a mitigating effect as well. That mechanism has a mediating effect as does the fact that if you think about some of the most current prices on the electric side, they are higher for the current year, for the upcoming year than they are for the following couple of years. We've got a backwardated curve. And so that auction in February will cover 3 years forward, which will have a higher price year for 2022, if you just look at the forwards and then lower as you go into '23 and '24. All to say that, that also has a very moderating effect how this stuff will ultimately flow through to the customer bill. So if we are in a position where prices like we're seeing now are sustained for the longer term. Obviously, that would all work its way down to the retail customer. But if anything is shorter lived, you're going to see less of an impact because of those mechanisms that I described.
Operator:
Next question is from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
I want to come back to the transmission for offshore wind. Your proposal is both for an offshore and onshore component, I think, I'm not entirely sure I understand that. When I think about the onshore component, does the utility where the substations are -- where the plants are being landed effectively where the -- the substation where the capacity is first hitting onshore. Is that the utility that probably has a competitive advantage for the approval or the grant to build out the onshore transmission?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Michael. So we put forward a series of proposals that can be used in a comprehensive manner. They wouldn't need all of our proposals as there are alternative options that are in there, and they can also be mixed and matched with proposals made by others. So we tried to create as robust of options for PJM and the BPU as was possible. Now the short answer to your specific questions, yes, there are some onshore advantages to being the landing point from a right of way point of view as an example. But beyond that, it's really just a question of what are the path lengths, what are your relationships with suppliers and your ability to manage the work and be cost competitive. And what those right of ways look like with respect to environmental permits and other issues that will come up. So I guess, technically, the short answer is yes, there are some advantages, but they, by no means, assure victory for whoever is at substation .
Operator:
Next question is from Jonathan Arnold of Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Quick hedging question. In the disclosure, you say that 90% of the gross margin for '22 is locked in via energy capacity in ZEC's. I'm just curious whether then the percentages and prices that you then give for '22, '23 and '24 are on that basis? Or is that just energy?
Daniel Cregg:
From ...
Jonathan Arnold:
When you then say 90% 29 -- for '22, 75% to 80% for '23. Are those sort of on a full gross margin basis? Or are those just the percentage of the base load output?
Daniel Cregg:
Now I got it. Yes, yes. They are energy based, Jon, energy based ...
Ralph Izzo:
We don't have the capacity options for some of the outer years, right.
Jonathan Arnold:
That number is really just a look at energy rather than energy and capacity? Is that ...
Daniel Cregg:
You got it. That is correct, yes.
Operator:
Thank you, participants. That is all the time we have for questions. Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg, you may now continue with your closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Great. Thank you, Jesse. So thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I know that we'll see a bunch of you in the EEI, Dan and Carlotta, Brian and Ralph LaRossa will be with you in warm and sunny Florida. I am off to chilly and drizzly Glasgow, although I'm looking forward to. I think there's some important things to be done there. We'll be arguing and helping the administration argue for significant reductions in carbon and significant support for all the things that we are advocates of from energy efficiency to offshore wind and nuclear and a variety of other things, including methane reduction. So I will miss you there, but I catch up with many of you at upcoming virtual conferences. So thanks again for joining us today. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Carol, and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, August 3, 2021, and will be available beginning at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time today as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at investor.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Carol. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's second quarter 2021 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income or loss as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings material. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.70 per share for the second quarter of 2021 versus $0.79 per share in last year's second quarter. GAAP results for the second quarter were $0.35 per share net loss related to transition charges at PSEG Power, and that compares with $0.89 per share of net income for the second quarter of 2020. Also in the quarter, PSEG Power recorded a pretax impairment of $519 million at its New England Asset Group, partly offset by a pretax gain of $62 million from the sale of the Solar Source portfolio. We continue to make great progress on a number of fronts to position ourselves for the future. We had a strong operating quarter that, once again, produced non-GAAP operating earnings in line with our expectations for the year. Our results for the second quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2021 to $1.98 per share. This 9% increase over non-GAAP results of $1.82 per share for the first half of 2020 reflects the growing contribution from our regulated operations and continued derisking at PSEG Power. Slides 13 and 15 summarize the results for the quarter and the first half of the year. It's been a year since we announced our intentions to explore strategic alternatives for our nonnuclear generation assets, and I'm pleased with the progress to date in what I believe is a compelling platform for future regulated growth at PSE&G. Our utility, a clean energy infrastructure-focused business, will be complemented by a significantly contracted, carbon-free generating portfolio, consisting of our nuclear fleet and investments and opportunities in regional Offshore Wind. The marketing of the fossil assets has garnered a significant level of interest from numerous qualified buyers in a competitive process, which is advancing as expected. And we expect to provide you with more information on this process in the very near future. I'm pleased that we've reached a balanced agreement with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and the Division of Rate Counsel on PSE&G's transmission rate, which, if approved by FERC, will resolve a significant regulatory uncertainty for us and provide a timely rate reduction for customers. PSE&G has agreed to voluntarily reduce its annual transmission revenue requirement, which includes a reduction in its base return on equity to 9.9% from 11.18%. If approved by the FERC, a typical electric residential customer will save 3% on their monthly bills. New Jersey continues to experience positive economic activity since Governor Murphy lifted the Public Health Emergency Order in June. Our largest customer class in terms of sales, the commercial segment, has shown a rebound in electricity demand. Electric sales overall adjusted for weather were up nearly 4% over the second quarter of 2020, led by an 11% increase in commercial sales, which was partly offset by a 5% decline in residential sales as people gradually returned to work outside the home. The warmer-than-normal summer has also increased PSE&G's average daily peak load for the quarter to 5,480 megawatts compared to last year's second quarter average of 5,100 megawatts and the 5,330 megawatts experienced in the pre-COVID second quarter of 2019. And so far this summer, PSE&G's load has peaked at 10,064 megawatts on June 30, exceeding the 10,000-megawatt mark for the first time since July 19 of the year 2013, 8 years ago. Turning to clean energy developments in New Jersey, the BPU in June awarded a second round of Offshore Wind projects totaling 2,658 megawatts and is now halfway towards the state's goal of procuring 7,500 megawatts of Offshore Wind generation by 2035. The award was split between the 1,510 megawatt Atlantic Shores project and Ørsted's 1,148 megawatt Ocean Wind 2. The OREC price is set in the second round range from about $86 to $84 for the Atlantic Shores and Ocean Wind projects, respectively. And last week, the BPU approved a new solar successor incentive framework that consists of 2 programs
Daniel Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2021 at $0.70 per share versus $0.79 per share in last year's second quarter. We've provided you with an information on Slides 13 and 15 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter and the year-to-date periods, and Slides 14 and 16 contain corresponding waterfall charts that take you through the net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I'll now review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $309 million or $0.61 per share for the second quarter of 2021 compared with net income of $283 million or $0.56 per share for the second quarter of 2020. PSE&G's second quarter results reflect revenue growth from ongoing capital investment programs. Growth in transmission added $0.01 per share to second quarter net income, reflecting continued infrastructure investment as well as the timing of transmission O&M in the quarter and true ups from prior year filings. Electric margin added $0.02 per share to net income compared to the year earlier quarter. driven by commercial and industrial demand, reflecting higher margins in April and May compared to the COVID-19 restrictions that affected prior year results; and the implementation of the Conservation Incentive Program or CIP mechanism in June. Gas margin added $0.01 per share, driven by the Gas System Modernization Program rate rollings. Gas related bad debt expense and O&M expense were both $0.01 per share favorable compared to the year earlier quarter, driven by the timing of COVID-related deferrals since the issuance of the BPU's order in the third quarter of last year. An increase in distribution-related depreciation due to higher rate base lowered net income by $0.01 per share. Nonoperating pension expense was $0.02 per share favorable compared to the second quarter of 2020, reflecting the continued recognition of strong asset returns experienced last year. Tax expense was $0.02 unfavorable compared to the second quarter of 2020, driven by the timing of adjustments to reflect PSE&G's estimated annual effective tax rate. The transmission agreement between PSE&G, the BPU and Rate Counsel that Ralph mentioned earlier has been filed with FERC for approval with an August 1 requested effective date. There's no timetable from when FERC must respond, however, we will begin recording the impacts of the settlement on our financials starting with the August 1 requested effective date. The agreement would reset the base ROE for PSE&G's formula rate to 9.9% from 11.18%, which lowers the annual transmission revenue requirement by about $100 million per year on a pretax basis. Other key elements of the settlement lower annual depreciation expense by approximately $42 million, which has a corresponding reduction in revenue that results in no net impact on earnings and an improved cost recovery methodology for our administrative and general costs and investments in materials and supplies. The agreement also includes an increase of PSE&G's equity ratio from 54% to 55% of total capitalization. The financial impact of the settlement agreement is expected to lower PSE&G's net income by approximately $50 million to $60 million or $0.10 to $0.12 per share on an annual basis in the first 12 months once implemented. Weather for the second quarter was significantly warmer than the second quarter of 2020, with the temperature humidity index that was 34% higher than normal and a significantly higher than normal number of hours at 90 degrees or greater. The New Jersey economy continued to recover in the second quarter, increased by total weather-normalized electric sales by approximately 4% compared to the second quarter of 2020, which was at the height of the COVID-19 economic restrictions. On a trailing 12-month basis, weather-normalized electric and gas sales were each higher by approximately 1%, with residential electric and gas usage up by 4% and 2%, respectively. The Conservation Incentive Program, which started June 1 for electric sales, removes the variations of weather, economic activity, efficiency and customer usage from our financial results, resetting margins to a baseline level. This new mechanism supports PSE&G's ability to maximize customer participation in energy efficiency programs without losing margins from lower sales. A similar program covering gas sales will commence October 1 and replace the weather normalization clause. PSE&G's capital program remains on schedule. PSE&G invested approximately $700 million in the second quarter and $1.3 billion year-to-date through June. This capital was part of 2021's $2.7 billion Electric and Gas Infrastructure Program to upgrade transmission and distribution facilities and enhance reliability and increase resiliency. We continue to forecast over 90% of PSEG's planned capital investment will be directed to the utility over the 2021 to 2025 time frame. PSE&G's forecast of net income in 2021 has been updated to $1.42 billion to $1.47 billion from $1.41 billion to $1.47 billion. Now moving on to Power. PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of $0.10 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $159 million. This compares to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.24 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $258 million for the second quarter of 2020. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization expense. The earnings release and Slide 23 provide you with a detailed analysis of the items having an impact on PSEG Power's non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income quarter-over-quarter. We also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and for the first half of 2021 on Slide 24. PSEG Power's second quarter non-GAAP operating earnings were affected by several items that combined lowered results by $0.14 per share below the quarter from a year ago. Recontracting and market impacts reduced results by $0.09 per share, reflecting seasonal shape of hedging activity and higher cost to serve load versus the year ago quarter. Generating volume and zero emission certificates were each down by $0.01 per share, affected by lower nuclear output related to the spring refueling outage at the 100% owned Hope Creek Nuclear Plant. PJM capacity revenue added $0.02 per share to the year ago quarterly comparison. For the year ended June 30 -- for the year-to-date ended June 30, capacity is $0.05 per share favorable compared to the first half of 2020, reflecting the scheduled higher price of approximately $167 per megawatt day for the majority of the first half of 2021 versus the $116 per megawatt day for the same period in 2020. Higher O&M expense reduced results by $0.04 per share compared to last year's second quarter, primarily reflecting the planned Hope Creek refueling outage and higher fossil operating expenses. Lower depreciation expense, reflecting the sale of the solar source portfolio and the early retirement of the Bridgeport Harbor coal-fired generating station, combined with lower interest expense, to add $0.02 per share versus the year ago quarter. Taxes and other items were $0.03 per share unfavorable, reflecting the absence of a multiyear tax audit settlement included in the second quarter 2020 results. Gross margin in the second quarter of 2020 was $28 per megawatt hour compared with $33 per megawatt hour for last year's second quarter. The decline quarter-over-quarter reflects the seasonal price impact of recontracting, that is anticipated to result in a negative $2 per megawatt hour price decline in the hedge portfolio for the full year. We expect recontracting results in the third quarter of 2021 to be similarly negative, as we mentioned last quarter, will more than offset the $0.03 per share benefit seen in the first quarter of this year. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Total generation output declined by 1% to 12.6 terawatt hours in the second quarter as the refueling outage at Hope Creek and subsequent forced out its lower nuclear output versus the second quarter of 2020. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 86% for the quarter, producing 7.2 terawatt hours, down by 7% versus last year, which represented 57% of total generation. Power's combined cycle fleet produced 5.3 terawatt hours of output, up 8% in response to higher market demand helped by warm weather. Power is forecasting generation output of 25 to 27 terawatt hours for the remaining 2 quarters of 2021, and has hedged 95% to 100% of its production at an average price of $30 per megawatt hour. Also during the quarter, we're pleased to remind you that PSEG Power eliminated all coal from its generating mix with the early retirement of Bridgeport Harbor Station 3. Power's quarterly impairment assessments, including consideration of its strategic review of the nonnuclear fleet, determined that the ISO New England asset grouping showed an impairment as of June 30, 2021. As a result, Power recorded a pretax charge of $519 million for this asset group. PJM and New York ISO asset groupings did not show an impairment as of June 30, 2021. However, a move of these assets to held for sale, which would be effective upon an anticipated sale agreement, would be expected to prompt an additional material impairment to the fossil portfolio. Such a move to held for sale would also prop the cessation of depreciation and amortization expense for the held-for-sale units, resulting in a favorable impact to GAAP and non-GAAP operating earnings through the close of the transaction. In June of 2021, PSEG completed the sale of PSEG's Solar Source, which resulted in a pretax gain of approximately $62 million and income tax expense of approximately $63 million, primarily due to the recapture of investment tax credits on units that operated for less than 5 years. For the remainder of the year, depreciation expense will also decline by approximately $0.03 per share as a result of the Solar Source sale. Forecast of PSEG Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for 2021 has been updated to $295 million to $370 million, from $280 million to $370 million, while our estimated non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA remains unchanged at $850 million to $950 million. Now let me briefly address operating results from Enterprise and Other and provide an update on PSEG Long Island. For the second quarter of 2021, PSEG Enterprise and Other reported a net loss of $3 million or $0.01 per share for the second quarter of 2021, which was flat compared to a net loss of $2 million or $0.01 per share for the second quarter of 2020. The net loss for the second quarter of 2021 reflects higher interest expense at the parent initially offset -- partially offset, I should say, by the ongoing contributions from PSEG Long Island. In June, PSEG Long Island entered into a nonbinding term sheet with the Long Island Power Authority, that would resolve all the authorities claims related to Tropical Storm Isaias. The terms will be adopted into amendments to our operation service agreement, or OSA, and submitted to New York state authorities for approval later this year. The OSA contract term will continue through 2025, with a mutual option to extend. For 2021, the forecast for PSEG Enterprise and Other remains unchanged at a net loss of $15 million. PSEG's financial position remains strong. At June 30, we had approximately $4 billion of available liquidity, including cash on hand of about $107 million and debt represented 52% of our consolidated capital. During the first half of 2021, PSEG entered into 2, 364-day variable rate term loan agreements totaling $1.25 billion. During the second quarter, PSEG Power retired $950 million of senior notes maturing in June and September 2021 and ended June with debt as a percentage of capital of 20%. In May, Moody's changed PSE&G's credit rating outlook to negative from stable. Their first mortgage bond rating remains Aa3. We still expect to fund PSEG's $14 billion to $16 billion capital investment program over the 2021 to 2025 period without the need to issue new equity, while also continuing to offer consistent and sustainable growth in our dividend payment. As Ralph mentioned, we've raised the bottom end of our forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $3.40 to $3.55 per share, up by $0.05 per share based on the solid results we have seen in the first half of the year that give us confidence that we can deliver results at the upper end of our original guidance. That concludes my comments. And Carol, we are now ready to answer questions.
Operator:
. The first question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to dig into the fossil sales process a little bit more, if I could. And given the impairment here, I just want to make sure I'm clear, the one taken in New England, it would seem that, that process might wrap up more near term than the others. And then at the same time, for the other pieces of the sale, it seems like the process might slip into '22 a little bit, if I saw that right. Just wondering if you could walk through some of the drivers on that.
Daniel Cregg:
Sure, Jeremy. With respect to your question on the different asset groupings, when we think about and when we do our impairment tests, we use those asset groupings. And so there's an asset grouping for New England, one for New York and one for PJM. And so I would not look at the timing of the impairment in the second quarter in New England as being different timing for different components. I think what you would look at is the way that the test is done by looking at both the traditional view of an undiscounted set of future cash flows, as well as the potential for a sale that go into that calculation. And basically, that calculation was such that we did as of the end of the second quarter, see an impairment in New England, but did not see one in New York and PJM. As I noted in my remarks that as we continue forward and upon a movement to held for sale, you could see a material impairment incremental to what's there. But it does not have to do with timing per se of the sale. And -- what we have said all along was somewhere around midyear, we would be moving to agreement. We're still in that ballpark, I believe. But I still think year-end is about what you would anticipate the path that we're on. But it does not imply separate sales by virtue of what's happened. It's more just based upon the overall accounting and how that test works vis-a-vis, let's say, the balance on the books.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just kind of pivoting towards Offshore Wind here in investment timing in transmission. Just wondering how you think about the opportunity post the settlement here? And then I guess as well, with nuclear, if there's potential federal outcomes here, if that might kind of play into the process in any way at all, and informs how the state goes about the review. Just wondering if you could update us there on that.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So Jeremy, it's Ralph. So we're excited about playing in all 4 parts of the offshore transmission opportunity. And we do see that as a quite sizable opportunity. This is due, if I'm not mistaken, at the end of this month, but they've been delayed. They were originally due the end of this month, but they were delayed. Now it's sometime in September, probably the end of September. We're expecting PJM to review that through the balance of the year and then handing their results over to the BPU for an early decision probably end of first quarter next year, it could slip a little further than that. But there's a sizable opportunity in Offshore Wind. And it's quite real, just given the fact that we now have over 3,700 megawatts of wind farms that are due to become operational depending upon the project anywhere from 2024 to 2028. Nuclear is wholly separate from that, and we are greatly encouraged by the amount of attention being given to merchant plants, in particular by President Biden and his administration, by bipartisan members of the House and the Senate. There is a component of the infrastructure build that right now allows for a grant program for nuclear. And while that is by no means the preferred path for us, just a mere fact that Congress is recognizing the challenge of nuclear plants, I think, is important for the nation and could relieve some of the cost pressure on New Jersey customers who are currently bearing the full burden of keeping our 3 units economically viable. But I don't see that connected to Offshore Wind in any way.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Can you just elaborate, Ralph, on the impact of the FERC ROE settlement with the BPU? I mean do you anticipate that $0.12 to -- $0.10 to $0.12 of drag to be perpetual? Or are there offsets like CapEx go forwards? Or maybe the ability to raise the equity ratio at the distribution business, O&M levers? How do we think about that?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So the $0.10 to $0.12 is the all-in effect of some of the improvements in the formula rate treatment. Some of the benefits realized from an earnings point of view of reducing the depreciation rate, but it also includes the most obvious drag of lowering the allowed ROE. Now a couple of things will happen by parts of changing the depreciation rate. The rate base will decline more slowly. So that's an improvement to earnings in the out years. But having said that, however, though, as you grow the rate base from new CapEx, the lower ROE is going to be a drag on earnings. So we won't break it out in the future, Shar, because there's no sense talking about what is no longer our ROE, but it will all be factored into any earnings guidance we give for 2022 and beyond.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. Got you. Okay. Great. And then just can you just give us some thoughts on how you see sort of the business trajectory post like the power sale? Just thinking of like how do you bridge the 6.5% to 8% utility rate base growth with the remaining moving pieces, like nuclear and the holdings business, Offshore Wind JV. And do you sort of plan to provide longer-term EPS guidance post the sale at the Analyst Day? So how do we sort of think about that?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So we're hoping to get together late in September. That's still our current thinking. And we do anticipate being able to give multiyear earnings guidance and revisit our dividend policy at that point in time. I think -- right now, we give you 10 months of earnings guidance. So multiyear may start out being 3 to 5 years. I don't think it's going to -- it's certainly not going to be beyond that. It's just so tough to predict, longer term than that, Shar. But really, what we highlighted not that long ago is still in place, we think after the sale, we'll be close to 90% regulated. Now that could drop a little bit as we start adding Offshore Wind, but that we expect to be fully contracted. And so that was the 80% to 90% range that we had given in prior earnings calls, and that's still in place. We are determined to get a longer-term treatment of our nuclear plants. We've said in a matter of fact that the 3 years that is untenable. And we're delighted that New Jersey gave us that to be able to enter into this more thoughtful discussion either at the federal level or if it has to be at the state level to expand that time frame. But the utility growth trajectory has only been enhanced, right? Its growth trajectory has always been supported by the fact that we have an aging infrastructure that can
Shahriar Pourreza:
So should we -- as we're thinking about the 3- to 5-year growth rate, should we think about it as the rate base that you guide currently at the utility level, and when Offshore Wind starts to become more material, you kind of rebase that year higher and then grow off of that? Or as you're thinking about that 3- to 5-year growth rate, are you going to revert back to your traditional, to what you guide, which is looking at your CapEx and probabilistic scenarios, right? And I guess the bookends of that growth rate off of the rate base growth would really be based on, I guess, the CapEx visibility you have, right, that would dictate a lot of on top of that. Is that the way to think about it?
Ralph Izzo:
So I don't want to give that long-term growth today. But I think -- when you have to think about, Shar, I mean, we have given a 5-year CAGR on rate base growth. So that will form the template of how we think about our long-term earnings growth so -- the end of last year until we get to the new year. And then it will build off of that. Now Offshore Wind is a little bit more difficult at this point in time, obviously, because we only have one project that's in the bank, so to speak, that's Ocean Wind 1. But we have lots of opportunities that are in the discussion phase. And to your point, yes, we will still suffer from the fact that the capital program is not as well known in years 4 and 5, and that they embed a little bit of potential conservatism in the rate base growth, which we've tended to be able to make up for in the past. And we'll think that through and give you further clarity about what we're assuming in terms of on file programs or continuation of programs when we meet with you in September. But we'll make that abundantly clear in how the earnings growth has been -- what's being assumed in it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So I want to come back to the guidance increase just on '21 here. I just wanted to understand a little bit more of the confidence, and the confidence in raising now with second quarter. I mean, obviously, the ROE impact is known, but you also have a solar and fossil headwind, obviously not fully reflected in expectations here. Just what gave you the confidence to raise it at this point? It's notable.
Daniel Cregg:
Julien, I think it's a couple of things. First off, we have solar that has been sold and that was in what we had going forward. And as we sit here today, what we have still assumes that fossil continues on. So that's more status quo than anything else. The other thing that I would -- that I think is probably worth mentioning though, is just the -- if you think about the utility, if you think about on the electric side, that SIP program, which has a leveling effect -- is in effect for electric in June, it's in effect in October for gas. And if you think about going through the summer period, gas usage is low during that period. So that will take some volatility out of the balance of the year from those perspectives. And so just seeing where we are with the events that we know and with the effect of some volatility-reducing aspects of the SIP, I think that it made sense right now to do what we did do and we'll see what happens from here.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And perhaps I can preference that I know the rating agencies are already acting in some respects. But can you elaborate on the increased flexibility, right? I know you used that word very specifically here, as you mentioned the topic at the Analyst Day. What kind of financial metrics are you thinking about with respect to your balance sheet on a prospective basis, perhaps pro forma for your strategic repositioning?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Look, I think embedded within your question is an acknowledgment that as we step forward, the company will have a more stable business mix on top of the aspect that I just talked about with respect to the SIP having a stabilizing effect. I think Analyst Day is the right time to put that out. But if you think about just that change in business mix is going to put us in a position where we have some more flexibility. So I think for more details on that, stay tuned. But I think the direction of it is obviously favorable given the business mix.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
But just to clarify this, should we still broadly be thinking about use of proceeds? Is it entirely towards debt paydown?
Daniel Cregg:
No. I mean what we said is that use of proceeds certainly would go towards Power's debt paydown. You've seen some of that happen already, but also the continued ability to invest in the business, if you think about investment opportunities that Ralph just talked about with respect to PSE&G and certainly within some of the out years as well as Offshore Wind, and the potential for a return of capital to shareholders. So those are the buckets that we've talked about. And probably with respect to the first use, I would think about the Power debt being taken out.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Understood. I appreciate it. But so buyback, dividend and CapEx all there?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. You were nodding your head Dan, but they couldn't see that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Dan, just quickly on 2021, can you quantify how much benefit was weather in the second quarter? I'm just trying to reconcile your move up in guidance given, sort of, the ROE headwinds and the combination of other things, including sort of demand recovery, load recovery year-over-year.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. We didn't have a $0.01 provided on weather, but modest. It's kind of in a $0.01 or $0.02 down across the businesses.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. Okay. So small. And then just maybe all my questions have been answered. But Ralph, is there a way to size the transmission investment, like what could be the upside? I mean you have a, what, $16 billion 5-year CapEx plan towards the high end of your range. But what could be a potential upside from all the transmission investment in New Jersey?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. No, I'm glad you asked that question, right? Because what we have been telling folks is that we expect it to be a 9-figure investment opportunity. But I think we've understated it. Looking at the breadth of what New Jersey wants to see happen, we may need to add a 0 to that. That does look like a more of a 10-figure investment opportunity at this point.
Durgesh Chopra:
Got it. So very large and presumably sort of worth structure.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. It's a lot of infrastructure.
Durgesh Chopra:
Right. And over sort of a 5, 10 year time line. Is that the right way to think about it? I appreciate all leanings, but...
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. No. I think that that's right, because it's supposed to be if New Jersey goes ahead with it, the intent is to be able to manage the 2035 target of 7.5 gigawatts. But it's not necessarily all going to be regulated, right? Some of the on-land stuff probably will be. But the components that are landing sites onshore and the backbone out in the ocean and the pieces that are connected to the ocean more than likely would be unregulated, but supported by a contract or a board order.
Daniel Cregg:
And Durgesh, the nature of it, we talked a little bit about it in the prepared remarks. There's a lot of options as to what actually can end up coming forward. And so I think what you're likely to see is a submission that would include multiple alternatives that some may or may not be mutually exclusive depending upon the way that the decision is ultimately made. So you may see kind of a bigger number going forward from the standpoint of all alternatives, which may distill down to a smaller number that we end up getting. Now it all obviously would end up being FERC regulated, but you may not see that embedded within our PSE&G regulated entity.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just quickly on Ocean Wind to your potential interest in becoming involved there. Any sense of how soon we might learn about that? Are you already talking about it? Or anything you can share there?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I don't think we want to get into details on that, Jonathan. I mean we have a range of conversations across several projects that are in the Mid-Atlantic region underway with Ørsted. And I think that's probably as far as I want to go. I do want to make sure that we -- that Dan's comment a second ago is best addressed, right? So when we say it's not regularly what we mean is it's not going to be part of the transmission, it's not going to part of PSE&G, but all transmission is FERC regulated. So we'd still give that kind of treatment. But in terms of Ocean Wind 2, it is obviously safe to conclude that we will have some conversations with Ørsted about that as well as some other opportunities in the region.
Jonathan Arnold:
All right. And just on -- you said that you're hoping to announce the -- have things to tell us in, I think, the very near future on fossil in the Analyst Day still targeting September. But you did -- it does look like you put first quarter of '22 sort of in the official statement on when we might when closing might happen. So -- can you just close the loop for us there a little bit? Did things shift back a bit, or...
Ralph Izzo:
Happy to. Look, so from my perspective, we've been running a 12-month process that's been phenomenally successful. It's been extremely robust. And I just don't want to sacrifice value for an arbitrary deadline. So we think in the near future, we'll be able to give you more detail, and we're still holding out for end of September Analyst Day. But I'm not going to sacrifice value for, as I said, an arbitrary deadline. The Q1 of '22 is just if you look at FERC approval time frames for similar-sized deals, in terms of when things were filed and when FERC finally blessed and you tack it on to where we are at the moment, that it could bleed into next year is what we're saying. It could still happen by the end of this year, but it could also just look at the range of dates leading to next year. Again, I think the process has been incredibly robust, and I don't want to diminish how well it's gone by just forcing an expedited closing of the final stages.
Daniel Cregg:
And just as Ralph mentioned, Jonathan, so I mean the initial announcement was this time last year. So when he talks about 12 months, we literally are to the event at least, if not for the exact day at 12 months. And that FERC process does not have a firm time line on it. And so that's -- as we think about timing, it's a little bit of an uncertain target. That's an approximate time frame I believe.
Jonathan Arnold:
I was just curious because it looks like a slight change in language, but that's great. Dan, I'll just ask one other quick thing on the CIP and implementing that. Does that have -- because I guess that sort of would pull out any over or under performance on weather through the balance of the year. Does it help or hurt you relative to guidance, having the CIP sort of come into effect? I realize it makes it less volatile going forward. But I'm just curious as you sort of pull out the, what you had in the base.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Honestly, Jonathan, it will depend a little bit upon what the weather and the economic activity is, right? We will be back to a more neutralized outcome. And as you mentioned, embedded within your question, there's more stability to that. But I think it's probably a question better answered as we get to our year-end call than where it is now.
Jonathan Arnold:
I thought it might be a question of what weather was because that was -- which you'll then as we think about sort of year-to-year comps that will fall away and then it becomes normal, right?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. I mean we would be thinking about it prospectively as being normal. So I don't think there'd be a strong bias one way or the other.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
A couple of questions. First one, just need a little help here. The net revenue change tied to the FERC ROE adjustment is $100 million, if I back out the $42 million. I'm just struggling to get to how it's only $0.10 to $0.12 of an impact. Would think just that $100 million tax effect is a bigger impact than $0.10 to $0.12.
Daniel Cregg:
I'm sorry, Michael. Say again?
Michael Lapides:
Well, I'm just -- the total revenue reduction is $142 million, but there's a $42 million reduction in D&A. So kind of down to the EBIT line or operating income line, it's a $100 million adjustment that just -- if that tax affected that, that would imply a bigger impact than the cents per share you've disclosed when you first announced it. Can you just help me bridge the gap there?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Yes, Michael, if you think about the other things that we kind of talked about within the overall settlement. So the way we've described it to some folks, the probably the easiest thing to think about is just if we spend $1 on G&A, the imperfected timing groove of state and federal regulation might have us receiving $0.49 back from state and $0.49 back from federal. And so there's not full recovery. And so it seemed like the right time, as we were talking through all this, to be able to just make sure that we were able to recover all costs. And so something like that, that would get us back and my example, that $0.02 of that dollar is additive as well. And so it's that kind of thing that went into the overall settlement, which helped a little bit beyond just the headline math of ROE delta times rate base amount. So those kind of things around the edges that were a little bit helpful, that we cleaned up as we went through as well.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then, Ralph, just a question for you, and this is thinking multiyears out and really long term. What is a better business from a risk profile and return standpoint? Owning minority stakes in Offshore Winds, the generating facility itself? Or owning and developing and building either contracted or FERC-regulated transmission to serve that wind?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, it depends on the skill sets that you contain, right? So for us, it's clearly the transmission component. But we're fortunate to have a partner that's the world leader in operating those Offshore Wind farms. So by virtue of that skill set that we can candidly lean on, we're economically indifferent in that regard. But it's pretty clear we've not been shy about it. In the case of building the wind farms, we're the passenger on the bus, but we have a very good bus driver that we trust. And in the case of the transmission, we're more than happy to be the best driver. But in both cases, we look at risk-adjusted returns. And the risk component is a function of what are the skill sets that you have or that your partner has.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And can you remind me just the -- we're in an environment right now where a hot topic for conversation is inflation, especially on commodity cost inputs. If the price, or the cost to build the Offshore Wind plant rises above kind of the original expectation, how does that get shared between you and Ørsted?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, so the projects are shared according to our equity percentages, right? So you're 25% owner of the project, they're 75% owner of the project. And that's what the benefits or burdens would be going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
So just on the asset sale, could you -- with the write-down and everything, where is the book value or the asset value on the books of the fossil portfolio at this point?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So we've laid out within our SEC docs, Paul, that fossil asset value is about $4.5 billion.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then just on the transmission build-out, which you guys went over and it sounds like a great opportunity with Offshore Wind and everything. But how would it work? I mean, it sounds like it's competitive. Would there be AFUDC if you guys were to win a substantial portion of that? Would that be -- would there be AFUDC that would be associated with the construction of that? Or would it basically be the situation where you get the earnings impact when the project is complete?
Daniel Cregg:
No, there is the ability for an AFUDC recovery loan.
Paul Patterson:
There is. Okay. And then -- just finally to sort of -- you mentioned that any component can be bid on. But it would seem to me that -- how would that work, I guess, if there was sort of a comprehensive bid, somebody dig into this scale like you can do a comprehensive bid? Is it really the ability of somebody to say, "Hey, there's a substation or something I want to -- I want to build." How could somebody sort of modularize it, if you follow what I'm saying? Is that really a possibility that you would have a project that would be put out there, but they would say, well, we'll take part of your project and split it up or really would it be pretty much -- do you follow what I'm saying?
Ralph Izzo:
I do. I do. And actually, that's been done successfully in the past, Paul. If you think about third quarter 1,000 solicitations replaced called the Artificial Island project. We're basically -- we were given part of the project and someone else was given another part of the project that were considered complementary to each other and mutually reinforcing of the voltage and stability issue that was trying to be resolved. I do think your question points in a direction that I would agree with, that it is probably easier to optimize the whole by putting in all 4 components and a specialist that just wants to do one component may or may not fit as naturally into the other components. But they could have just such a low-cost solution on land or out in the ocean that, that PJM figures out a way to ensure the technical requirements of the project are achieved and then leaves it to the BP units whether or not they want to have bifurcated ownership of what will become an Offshore Wind grid.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions. And now I will turn the call back over to management for closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Great, thank you. So look, I hope you agree. We've made tremendous progress on multiple fronts, operational, regulatory and legislative. I'm particularly optimistic and encouraged by the amount of federal attention being given to a nuclear production tax credit, and the clearing of the deck, so to speak, of some of our own state issues that are now behind us, both in terms of the ROE settlement and the second round of ZECs. We're going to continue to make progress, I'm sure, on the fossil asset sale, to get us to that fully-regulated or contracted position that we have targeted for the better part of the year. And we're looking forward to speaking with many of you at some of the upcoming virtual conferences over the next several weeks and our Investor Day in the fall. So with that, stay safe, stay healthy, and thank you for joining us, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect, and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Christi, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. . As a reminder, the conference is being recorded today, May 5, 2021, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern Time on May 11, 2021. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at investor.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Christi. Good morning. PSEG released first quarter 2021 earnings results earlier today. The earnings release, attachments and today's slides can be found on the PSEG Investor Relations website, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters we will discuss on today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and included in today's earnings material. I will now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on today's call is Daniel Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that PSEG has achieved several major milestones on our path to becoming a primarily regulated utility company with a complementary and significantly contracted carbon-free generating fleet. PSEG posted solid results earlier this morning, reporting non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2021 of $1.28 per share versus $1.03 per share in last year's first quarter. Our GAAP results for the first quarter were also $1.28 per share versus $0.88 per share in the first quarter of 2020. Results from ongoing regulated investments at PSE&G and the effect of cold weather on PSEG Power drove favorable comparisons at both businesses. We present details on the quarter's results on Slide 5 of the earnings presentation. We are well positioned to execute on our financial and strategic goals for the balance of the year given this eventful quarter. Beginning was out nearly $2 billion of Clean Energy Future programs, which have moved from approval to execution. PSE&G is helping to advance the decarbonization of New Jersey in a sizable and equitable way. Our Clean Energy Future investments are paired with a jobs training program that offers opportunities to low and middle-income New Jersey community. Last week, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities voted unanimously to award a continuation of the full $10 per megawatt hour zero-emission certificates, I'll just call them ZECs from now on, for all 3 New Jersey nuclear units, that would be Hope Creek, Salem number 1 and Salem number 2 through May of 2025. This was the maximum amount that the BPU could have awarded, and we are appreciative of the support received from the many community, labor, business, environmental and employee organizations that participated in this enormously important process.
Daniel Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph mentioned, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2021 of $1.28 per share versus $1.03 per share in last year's first quarter. We've provided you with information on Slide 12 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. And Slide 13 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I'll now review each company in more detail.
Operator:
. The first question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Well, first off, if you don't mind, there was an article this morning here in Reuters, I believe, around federal support for production tax credits. Obviously, you all just received your own state level support here on ZECs. Can you talk about how those 2 might match together, understanding that, obviously, it's very early days on any federal effort here? And then related to that, on the Nuclear front, as you think about your cost reduction efforts and offsetting the dissynergies, how should we think about the cost structure above -- sitting above the nuclear plant sort of once everything's said and done after this year, if you think about that, too?
Ralph Izzo:
Julien, thanks for your question. So in the New Jersey statute -- for 2018 statute, there's an explicit offset that would reduce the ZEC payment if there's a federal payment for the carbon-free attributes of the plants. And we have always maintained that whether it's nuclear or wind or solar that reducing the nation's carbon emissions should be governed by a nationwide program. So we are actively pursuing these federal remedies. And yes, they would be, as I just said a moment ago, offset the ZEC. I don't know that I fully understand your question about the cost structure on top of the plants.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Let me rephrase that, if you don't mind, team.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you, Ralph. Just as you think about the legacy SG&A, sort of the corporate costs, as you think about divesting these other packages here, can you just elaborate as to how you think about sort of what the run rate is of that business without asking what the actual profitability of the nuclear plants are? How do you think about the cost structure therein just as we look to refine ourselves in kind of a '22 going-forward basis?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. No, we have set a goal for ourselves that there would be no stranded costs that would remain upon a divestiture of assets. The philosophy we've adopted is that we want to be extremely ambitious in eliminating positions, but extremely accommodating in helping people get reassigned to the extent that their skills match needs in the company, right? I mean we churn over 7% of our employee population every year. So we're always looking for talent. Now the one exception to that, of course, is that to the extent that we have people like myself, who's compensation was spread over a bigger asset base, that's going to be something that we will have to make up like that will be the case. So no, we are not having any residual stranded support or costs remaining of the .
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. These are direct or indirect, as Ralph pointed out.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. Excellent team. And just clarifying, there's no further clues you can offer us on the sale price for the portfolio today upside and not taking a write down.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So it's -- bracket, it's a big bracket. It was between $500 million and $600 million. And the value accretion is based upon an average of the next 3 years of what we thought the EBITDA would be. And the earnings accretion is if we used the proceeds simply to retire debt. So we're not making any heroic assumptions. So as I said in my remarks. it was a robust process, we had credible participants, and we had -- the prices we received were quite credible, and we think it worked quite well. I'm -- you're tired of hearing me say this, but so far, the only surprise I've had since July is that there have been no surprises. So -- and I hope I can continue to say that, and I'm sure I will.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
I just want to take a step a bit higher level here with Biden plan and granted, it's very early here, things can change, but just wondering what you're looking for here and how could it impact PEG as far as what it could mean for offshore wind, transmission development, or even kind of different things such as nuclear with green hydrogen in the future? Just any type of thoughts that you could share as far as what possibilities or what you're looking for here?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Jeremy. We were one of the very small group of companies candidly in our industry who worked to the President and supported his 80% reduction by 2030 for the electric sector. And we're working with members of Congress on making sure that nuclear is included in any clean energy standard in a technology-neutral way. Candidly, we have been talking to folks about the possibility that if tax credits are extended for carbon-free energy that nuclear be eligible for that as well. That, to an extent, an incentive system is set up to achieve these targets that may not be technology specific, but that they be, I'll repeat myself here, technology indifferent as long as you're achieving the desired outcome, which is carbon reductions. We know that there is a lot of wisdom to all the above approach, including nuclear, solar, wind, carbon capture and storage. And we're pleased to see what the President has said about the prospects for offshore wind in New Jersey in the middle of the second round, solicitation looking from another 2.4 gigawatts. Maryland is seeking an additional fee of 100-gig megawatts. So I do think the momentum is real. And the combination of enthusiasm coming out of Washington and enthusiasm on the part of Governors in the region in which we operate leads me to believe that there is going to be a lot of opportunity to invest both in the transmission infrastructure needed to access carbon-free resources and the continued development of carbon-free resources as well as the preservation of existing carbon-free resources. Don't forget, I know you know this, but nationwide, the existing nuclear fleet is responsible for over -- just over 50% of the carbon-free energy in the nation, even though it only supplies 20% of the total electricity. And in New Jersey, those numbers are even more pronounced. Our nuclear plants are over 90% of the carbon-free energy. So he's got this really nice confluence of political leadership in capital and in the states, all rowing the same -- rowing the boat in the same direction.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. And granted, as you said, federal support could supersede what happens at the state level. And it's great to see you just get the 3-year extension is there. But just wondering, as you look down the road here, do you see the potential for changes to the ZEC program in New Jersey, be it higher levels, longer duration? Or just trying to get a feeling for what you think might be possible there?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, listen, we've been quite consistent in saying that we see a multi-phase process to secure the long-term viability of our nuclear plants, and getting around to a ZEC was the successful combination of Phase I. In Phase II, there are 3 pathways we're going to explore. One is a federal pathway via that a clean energy standard or production tax credit, and we talked about that just a moment ago. So we're going to work hard to pursue that because it is global climate change, not New Jersey climate change. Second path is to being honest broker and adviser to the state in its pursuit of an FRR. And that, as I said in my remarks, is in process, and we're expecting a summary report from the state consultants sometime this month. That's just a little bit behind schedule, but not by much and state has some time to do that thoughtfully and well. In the unlikely event that all of that doesn't achieve the long-term economic viability of the nuclear plants, then we would talk to state policymakers about modifying the ZEC program to do that. It is pretty clear that a 3-year process is untenable in such a capital-intensive asset. And as we said throughout the proceeding, the $10 per megawatt hour was not commensurate with the cost of capital associated on a risk-adjusted basis when operating those plants. But given the opportunity to pursue these 3 other remedy paths that we would accept the $10 per megawatt. So I do think that there's a fair amount of opportunity to change the economic support for the nuclear plants.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Shah Pourreza with Guggenheim and Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
A couple of questions here. First, just curious how you're thinking about maybe capital allocation from the Fossil sale -- pending sale? And especially as you guys are getting over the finish line, I mean, kind of with the derisking nature of the transaction, do you sort of need the cash proceeds further delevering? Or do you anticipate the transaction to be credit accretive. And then maybe as a sub-point, how efficiently do you think you could redeploy proceeds on the organic side? Because we've seen some pretty healthy transactions on the asset side with PEG, so curious there.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, it's a great question, Shahriar. And we've said throughout the year and even before, if you take a look at the capital program that we have in front of us for 21 to '25 that we could fund that without the need for incremental equity. So take that as it is and start to think about the sale of the business and proceeds coming in, there's going to be excess proceeds. And so your question is the right one. What do you think about for use of proceeds? And so there's debt at the Power level. And if you think about working your way through some of the terms of that debt, you'll see that some of the conditions there in is reliant upon some of the assets that are being sold. So I think, pay down of debt at the Power level is an obvious first use of proceeds. We would anticipate excess proceeds beyond that, at which point, you start to take a look at how we have described the business and how we've described the business is continuing to grow the utility. It has a fairly voracious appetite. The existing capital plan can be done without additional equity. But as we step through time, as we've always said, if you take a look at the 5-year capital plan, there are additional things that end up coming to bear during those 4- or 5-year periods and then towards the back end of that plan that are not known at the beginning. So there certainly ends up being opportunity at the utility. We've had a lot of discussion about offshore wind. We've talked about investing in Ocean Wind, and that we would not intend to do ocean wind as a one-off project, so we would either be in the business or not. So opportunities will come there, and they tend to be lumpy when they come based upon the various solicitations. So I think there's another opportunity to deploy capital there. And then there is always the opportunity to return some capital to shareholders. To your point, we have said very often that, to the extent that we look at some of the transactions that are going on and people are paying more than 1x rate base to get the ability to earn on a dollar of rate base, that's a challenging economic situation for us. So we have looked, and we'll continue to look at those opportunities. But to date, they have kind of fallen below the optimal things that we can do with our capital.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Got it. And then just a transmission ROE question, how active, Ralph and Dan, are your discussions on returns? Now that some of the other agenda items have been taken off the BP plate. And this is in light of the headlines from the FERC ALJs I'm pretty draconian views for ROEs and cap structures, which obviously sent a message to investors. How qualitative do you think the BPU is in regard to target ROEs, both on -- at the transmission and state level side in light of what we're seeing at the federal side?
Ralph Izzo:
So I think the conversations remain very constructive. And the issue, as you correctly pointed out, Shahriar, has been a combination of how busy the Board was given what we wanted to do, but that's only part of it. I mean the Board is in the middle of a second round solicitation on offshore wind for 2.4 gigawatts. They're in the middle of an FRR proceeding. They regulate water companies other electric and gas companies and then COVID does introduce an element of inefficiency in terms of how and when it can . So there's been no indication in the conversations that anyone is any less motivated to find a common ground than we started. And I know -- I realized it's over a year ago that we started It's taking that amount of time, but that's just a function of what I said a moment ago. And again, the motivation for us is to get a fair outcome that removes any uncertainty on the part of our investors and as well as to provide some level of rate relief for customers. And the motivation for the Board staff is to achieve that team very belief, but to do it now instead of getting immersed into a FERC proceeding that might resolve itself in many years from now.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.
Durgesh Chopra:
Maybe just a clarification on the FERC discussion you were just having. Have you quantified what the 50 basis points elimination does in terms of an earnings impact to you guys?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. I think we did I said it would be about $0.06 a share on an annual basis.
Durgesh Chopra:
Perfect. And then just maybe get your thoughts directionally, how you're thinking about the PJM here, the capacity option here next month, maybe you can just talk about it directionally, where do you see prices going? And then how does that impact your sort of process of selling the Fossil assets?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. So we have had a long and story history of not trying to predict public where things are going. We've -- I think we've done a decent job internally of having our own views. But ultimately, as a participant there, I don't tend to share too many. I mean the only thing I would say is that if you take a look overall at the parameters that have been put forth for this auction, there is more of a bearish tilt than a bullish tent, if I think back compared to some prior auctions. So we'll get the results June 2 and see where things go. But on balance, we see just as a comparison to prior auctions, we see a little bit more bearish than bullish signals coming out of this one, just from the inputs that we've gotten so far.
Durgesh Chopra:
That's super helpful. And just a is that -- just any color on sort of your discussions with active parties interested in those assets? What are you seeing there?
Daniel Cregg:
So I think it will play a little bit of a role. If I tend to think about the assets that we're selling to they are assets with they're very efficient, great capacity factors. And so they're getting significant spark spreads that ultimately drive their value. Capacity has some of the value, obviously. But given how much they run, I think the energy margins are going to be critical to that determination. And this auction is going to be 1 year. And what folks will see after that, they can draw some conclusions from a year. But as I just talked about, you think about historical auctions compared to the current auction, you're going to have differences in the parameters as you step through time. So I think that the capacity auctions of the past have not been a wonderful forebearer of what could happen in future auctions. So obviously, each participant is going to take a look at that and see what they're going to do with it from a bid perspective. But it's not as big of an impact to look at a historical capacity auction as the some other things.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
I think most of my questions were answered, but just on the Fossil sale just discussed, based on the initial bids you've had and different scenarios for the auction. How confident are you that you will complete a sale out of this and get somewhere in the range you were expecting?
Daniel Cregg:
Steve, I think we have had a robust process. I think that we've had a lot of interest. I think the assets themselves deserve and have drawn a lot of interest. So I guess I'd echo what Ralph said a couple of minutes ago, if we think about that things have gone as expected, I think that's a relative positive for continued progress here, and we would anticipate coming to a good conclusion.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then on the offshore wind, both the commitment you've made so far and potential future ones, when will we get a little more kind of insight into the amount of the investment you're going to make and timing of that, yes?
Ralph Izzo:
So that happens in an increment, Steve, right? So good news at a bone is on the impact statement, it will be done, and I think that's a '22 event. We've talked about making some capital decisions in the second half of this year, it's called a pre-FID decision. And as I said, that for financial investment decision. And then I think there's another major decision a year later than that. But -- so it's multiple steps in the process. We're pleased with how things are going right now. There's some tax flow changes that are being bandied about that need to be sorted through in terms of our original premise in a tax equity partner. And I think right now, to be honest with you, that team is more focused on execution and a little bit more attention being paid to the ongoing solicitations to create even further opportunities.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes -- see, the dynamic environment that we've had from a credit perspective in Washington does tend to shift things around. And as Ralph said, we're the tax equity in the social wind project. So it remains, a little bit of flux, exactly what it will look like because the tax equity is going to be influenced by the ultimate tax rules where they sit. So we've had some changes over time with respect to, I guess, last December, you saw a shift between the equalization, if you will, between PTC and ITC. And with all of the, I guess, I'd say, proposals as opposed to proposed legislation because it's not at that stage yet with respect to where some of these credits may go. It's got to turn into actual legislation before we know a final answer there. So those will tend to influence ultimately some of the cash flows in the initial years, too.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And this question kind of got asked, but I'll just -- I'll ask a little differently there. Given the FERC MOPR that came out, just how are you -- how is that, if at all, impacting your ability to settle the New Jersey transmission ROE? Is that tying into it at all? Or if you're okay?
Ralph Izzo:
It's a course part of the background environment in which we're talking sort of ironic. 6 months ago, we were having this conversation that I think you would have phrased that as how does the...
Steve Fleishman:
The other way.
Ralph Izzo:
Framing realization. And of course, our colleagues at the regulatory team were saying, right, maybe another 50 basis points, we need to have it lower and our response was well that's not guaranteed and we can depend on we were ride. And now we're tempted to say, well, with RTO taken away, then our settlement number needs to be higher what they're saying there's no guarantee that's going to happen. So it's part of the background. The negotiation has always been around the base ROE. And both sides realize that any RTO incentives adder was a separate from that.
Operator:
Next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Just quickly on the sort of the market for off a cap. As you're aware, there's -- there was a filing by P3 sort of seeming somewhat concerned about whether or not there was going to be a safe harbor that have been -- that they perceive to be -- that they -- whether that was going to be continuing for this upcoming auction? And I was wondering, I didn't see really anybody other than them raise this issue. And obviously, counter filings and what have you, but any sense as to whether or not that's a significant issue or could impact you guys in any significant way?
Ralph Izzo:
Not to my knowledge, Paul, Dan and I are looking at each other right now, saying we haven't joined any alarm bell -- rang any alarm bells over that at all.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. And then just with the MOPR and the FRR, given where the MOPR is and these things that are happening at PJM plus what we're having at FERC, is there -- what are the chances that there will be any significant action until the MOPR issue is resolved with respect to the FRR?
Ralph Izzo:
I think what the state will do is to continue to make progress on what an FRR should look like if the MOPR doesn't resolve the duplicative payment, I'm not -- I don't want to conjecture whether the state would proceed with the FRR if the duplication and the capacity payment were eliminated might choose to continue anyway, just to some dependents and not have to worry about the future FERC going back in the other direction, right? So because New Jersey is clearly in for the long-haul in terms of securing carbon-free energy. And we've had some sizable changes in the direction of FERC, whether it's the MOPR, whether it's the RTO adder. And I could see the states are saying, okay, I can't live that way, let me chart my own course. Having said that, they might equally say, well, I don't need to chart that course for a little while because the offshore wind that's coming into play in the 2024 energy year will no longer have this penalty to imposed upon it. So it does give the state some optionality if the MOPR is fixed.
Daniel Cregg:
And if resolved, quick enough, perhaps gets done before anything gets finalized on the FRR, that would, I think be the ideal situation that the state would have all the information to be able to finalize against.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
David Arcaro:
How do you think about your chances in the offshore transmission solicitation and the eventual scale of that opportunity?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So one of the landing points is a switching station of ours. And that doesn't give us a hard and fast advantage, except we know the area, we know the right-of-ways, we know the transmission flow as we understand how to engineer multiple solutions to bring that power online without creating any other reliability issues. I don't -- have we given the scale, I mean, of the magnitude of the opportunity? I don't think we have, right? Because it's an RFP. So if we struck numbers out there, that'd give competitors a fair amount of information about what we think we'll be bidding. But it is a consequential number. I mean, it's something that would be a sizable project and a good use of capital.
David Arcaro:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And I guess I was just curious with recent cable issues that they ran into. Just wondering if that's something that needs kind of reevaluation or changes economics in any way for the Ocean Wind project?
Ralph Izzo:
So I don't want to pretend to be an expert on that. I think the economic impact is more on having to go back and fixed as opposed to designing in advance to avoid. But that would be a better question to ask the folks at We will Ørsted. We will of course, see all of that included in the project financial analysis during the pre-FID stage. But I don't have a more specific answer than that. I know what's been in domain has been existing project in mitigation.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Real quick. First of all, offshore wind, are you thinking that you're your interest is primarily owning or co-owning or owning stakes in projects that primarily serve New Jersey? Or are you looking to be more broad, more diverse across the Eastern Seaboard and with more venture partners besides just the one you're doing on ocean wind?
Ralph Izzo:
So yes. So we would accept a broader opportunities. As you probably know, Michael, our Garden State Offshore Energy site that we call that has ready access to Maryland. And it's actually been used for something called the Skipjack project, which serves Maryland. We also reach into Delaware, should Delaware choose to pursue Ocean Wind and can reach New Jersey. It's in the southern tip of New Jersey. So that has a 3-state reach. Our arrangement with Ørsted is in a certain part of the Mid-Atlantic region. So we're free to work with others outside this region. But as you're well aware, most of the participants in offshore wind are seeking partnerships, if at all, with local utilities for a variety of regulatory and planning -- transmission planning reasons. So while we would be open to it, I think it's safe to conclude that our primary focus and emphasis is with this partner in this Mid-Atlantic region.
Daniel Cregg:
It's, Michael, a pretty opportunity-rich area as well. I mean, we have said that we wouldn't expect to be going to the Philippines to do any projects there. But if you think about what is closer to home, it is a pretty opportunity-rich area.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then just one last one. On Ocean Wind or on other New Jersey ones, can you remind me once the PPA is signed, who warehouses construction cost risk? Is that the project developers? Is it the customer? Like how does that work?
Ralph Izzo:
That's a project developer, right? So the PPA, the Board order has a energy price and then an escalator for 20, 25 years, I forget. And anything that's -- any costs or issues that were not anticipated or planned for are at the risk of the developer.
Operator:
Your final question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research Partners.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just a quick one. On the offshore again, can you remind us, Ralph, if you have any with Ocean Wind 2 at this stage? And or if there's kind of an opportunity to have one?
Ralph Izzo:
So Jonathan, you broke up. Either there's a chance that Dan heard you better than I did, or maybe you just there repeat that.
Daniel Cregg:
Could you repeat the question, Jon?
Jonathan Arnold:
My question was whether you have -- just if you could remind us what your involvement or potential involvement with Ocean Wind 2 might be the project that was bid in to the current solicitation?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So basically, that's Ørsted's project. And if they want to partner with someone, we have the right of first refusal in doing that.
Jonathan Arnold:
Great. And then just one -- just to clean up issue on the Power and the balance sheet. And Dan, you mentioned your comments about use of proceeds. Is there an amount of debt that you indicated that you would continue to carry on Power? Just trying to sort of gauge how we should think about some of these sort of coming up? And what the go-forward balance sheet might look like?
Daniel Cregg:
There's not a number that we put out, Jonathan. I think the way to think about it is that there's cash flows that come off of Power. And certainly, those cash flows are financeable to the extent that there's a, for instance, a longer-term solution for Nuclear, then you've got a longer-term understanding of what that could be and it could carry an incremental amount of debt for a longer period of time, depending upon where all that lands. And separate and apart, I'm sorry, Power the offshore wind proposal, as Ralph talked about, it escalates for 20 years, and that price is fixed. So yes, the construction risk is on the developer. But what you see from a revenue stream standpoint is not market oriented, you get paid the OREC and then you provide back the market revenues that would come from that. So there's some stability there as well. So I have put a number on that, but there is a financeable cash flow stream in both of those instances.
Jonathan Arnold:
So your comments before were not sort of pointing to a kind of a debt-free Power there?
Daniel Cregg:
Right, not necessarily. Certainly, it would not -- it would probably not be the same issuances that would be there, but it could carry some debt on the other side of that.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then just maybe a similar vein. Any plans to term out the parent maturity that's coming up in November? Or is that one you're just going to retire?
Daniel Cregg:
It will be based upon everything else that happens between now and then which includes the status of what's going on from a sales perspective.
Ralph Izzo:
I think we're going to wrap up at this point. Thank you all for joining us. And I know we've been on the phone for about an hour, but the message I hope you heard is a fairly simple one that is that we're executing on our plan and doing the things that we said we would do to reinforce and create primarily ESG leading utility. So thank you again for spending time with us. And I hope to see you all soon in person. Have a great day, folks. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect, and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to PSEG 4Q and Full Year 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan, VP, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Carlotta Chan:
Good morning and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's fourth quarter and full year 2020 earnings release, attachments and slides, detailing operating results by company, are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-K will be filed shortly.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for joining us for our 2020 review and future outlook. PSE&G reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.65 per share. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year rose by 4.6% to $3.43 per share, and mark the 16th year in a row that PSE&G delivered results within our original earnings guidance. PSE&G GAAP results were $0.85 per share for the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with $0.86 per share for the fourth quarter of 2019. In addition for the full year PSE&G reported 2020 net income of $3.76 per share compared with $3.33 per share in 2019. Details on the results for the quarter and the full year can be found on slides 12 and 14. I am pleased to report that the PSE&G's fourth quarter and full year results reflected solid contributions from both PSE&G and PSEG Power. And I'm particularly proud of the achievements of our employees during this past year as it was one of the most challenging in recent memory. Their efforts have kept our customers connected to essential energy services to power their homes, businesses, and vitally important institutions. We have also made steady progress in several key business priorities, the most important of which is our transition to becoming primarily a regulated utility, with contract and generation comprise about zero carbon nuclear fleet and future investments in regional offshore wind. In the past six months, we've announced the exploration of strategic alternatives for PSEG Power's 7,200 plus megawatts of non Nuclear Generating assets, and received initial indications of interest for both the fossil and solar source assets. PSE&G successfully initiated its landmark clean energy future program, securing approval to spend nearly $2 billion in energy efficiency, smart meter installations and electric vehicle charging infrastructure, all of which will enhance New Jersey's environmental profile for years to come. In addition, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, I'll refer to them as the BPU recently concluded public hearings regarding PSE&G nuclear application to extend the zero-emission certificate. I think I'll shorten that to ZEC from now on through May 2025. Our service area experience milder than the normal weather during the fourth quarter, book ending the week heating season of the first quarter in 2020.
Dan Cregg:
Terrific. Thank you, Ralph. Good morning, everybody. As Ralph said, PSE&G reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2020 of $0.65 per share. And we provided you with information on slides 12 and 14 regarding the contribution of non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the fourth quarter, and for the full year of 2020. Slide 13 and 15 contained waterfall charts that take you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, and non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I'll now review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G's net income for the fourth quarter of 2020 increased by $0.04 to $0.58 per share, compared with net income of $0.54 per share for the fourth quarter of 2019 as shown on slide 17. For the full year PSE&G's net income increased by $0.16 per share, or 6.5% compared to 2019 results. This improvement reflects an 8% increase in rate base at year end 2020 to just over $22 billion, which as we note on slide 22 does not include approximately $1.8 billion of construction work in progress or see what that's mostly a transmission. The continued growth in utility earnings resulting from investments in transmission added $0.2 per share versus the fourth quarter of 2019. Gas margin was $0.02 favorable, reflecting GS&NT roll in and higher weather normalized volume. Electric margin was flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. As higher were the normalized volumes will offset by lower demand? Mild temperatures during the quarter had a negative $0.03 per share impact, mostly reflecting recovery limitations under the earnings test of the gas weather normalization clause. O&M expense was flat versus the fourth quarter 2019. Higher distribution depreciation expense of a $0.01 per share offset lower pension expense of a $0.01 per share in the quarter. Taxes and other were $0.03 per share favorable, partly reversing the negative $0.07 per share impact that the timing of taxes had on third quarter of 2020. Recall in the third quarter flow through taxes and other items lower net income by $0.07 per share compared to the third quarter of 2019. And we indicated at that time that about half of the $0.07 would reverse in the fourth quarter. The balance is related to bad debts which we anticipate reversing in the future based upon the timing of actual write-offs. Early winter weather in the fourth quarter as measured by the heating degree days was 9% milder than normal and 14% milder than in the fourth quarter of 2019. The full year PSE&G weather-normalized residential electric sales increased by 5.6% due to the COVID-19 work from home impact, but a larger decline in commercial sales resulted in total electric sales declining by 2%. Total weather-normalized gas sales were up 1.2% for 2020 by a 4.9% increase in residential use partially offset by a smaller decline in the commercial and industrial segment. For both electric and gas sales, higher residential uses largely offset declines in commercial and industrial sales, resulting in stable margins overall. PSE&G invested $700 million in the fourth quarter as part of its 2020 Capital Investment Program of approximately $2.7 billion directed to infrastructure upgrades of transmission and distribution facilities to maintain reliability, increase resiliency, make lifecycle replacements and clean energy investments. PSE&G updated five-year capital spending plan includes investing $2.7 billion in 2021. And as detailed on slide 21, approximately $960 million is allocated to transmission; $700 million to electric distribution, which includes approximately $200 million for Energy Strong Two, $875 million to gas distribution, which includes over $400 million for GSMP2 and $200 million for new clean energy future EV programs and the beginning of the AMI rollout. The clean energy future EV investment will ramp up to approximately $125 million in 2021 before reaching a full annual run rate of about $350 million in 2023. As Ralph mentioned the BPU approved two CF settlements in January, totaling approximately $875 million covering energy cloud and electric vehicle investments. The capital and operating costs of these programs will begin to be recovered in PSE&G next rate proceeding, expected to be filed in the second half of 2023. From the start of the programs until the commencement of new base rates estimated in late 2024, the return on other non-capital will be included for recovery in these rates as well as operating costs and stranded costs associated with retirement of the existing leaders. Of these amounts, the vast majority about 90% received contemporaneous or near contemporaneous regulatory treatment either through the first formula rate, or clause recovery mechanisms or recovered and rates as replacement spend or new business. As Ralph also mentioned, we continue settlement discussions with the BPU staff and re-counsel regarding our FERC transmission return on equity. Although our forecast for 2021 as soon as the resolution effective in the near term, those discussions remain confidential and ongoing. PSE&G net income for 2021 is forecasted at $1,410 million to $1,470 million which reflects an assumed reduction of our transmission formula rate, as well as incremental investment in EV infrastructure and energy efficiency. So moving to power, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter unchanged from the non-GAAP results in the fourth quarter of 2019. Results for the quarter brought Power's full year non-GAAP operating earnings to $430 million or $0.84 per share. Compared with 2019 non-GAAP results of $09 million or $0.81per share. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA total to $182 million for the quarter and $990 million for the full year of 2020. And this compares to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $198 million, and $1,035 million for the fourth quarter and full year 2019 respectively. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure, as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization expense. The earnings release and the waterfall on slide 13, and 15 provides you with a detailed analysis of the items having an impact on PSEG Power's non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and costs. We've also provided you with added detail on generation for the fourth quarter and full year on slide 26. PSEG Power's fourth quarter non-GAAP operating earnings were aided by the scheduled increase in PSEG Power's average capacity prices in PJM, covering the second half of 2020 and higher gas operations, which resulted in improved non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons of $0.04 and $0.01 per share respectively, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. However, lower generation output and re-contracting at lower market prices reduced non-GAAP operating earnings by a total of $0.08 per share versus the year ago quarter. The decline in O&M expenses in the quarter improve results by a $0.01 per share and reflects the absence of the Hope Creek refueling outage that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019. The extension of the Peach Bottom Nuclear operating licenses contributed to lower depreciation expense of a $0.01 per share and lower taxes improve non-GAAP operating earnings by a $0.01 over the year ago quarter. Gross margin for the quarter was $32 a megawatt hour, a $1 per megawatt hour improvement over the fourth quarter of 2019, mainly reflecting the scheduled increase in capacity prices that began June 1, 2020 and remain in place through May of 2021. For the full year 2020 gross margin was flat at $32 per megawatt hour compared to full year 2019. Mild fall temperatures and holiday related spikes and COVID-19 positivity rates dampen market demand in New Jersey and kept our prices and natural gas prices lower than the quarter and year ago comparisons. So let's turn to Power's operations. Total output from Power's generating facilities declined 9% in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Unplanned outages at fossil and an extended outage at the sale of one nuclear unit reduced fourth quarter generation levels compared to the fourth quarter in 2019. However, full year 2020 output of 53 terawatt hours came in above our 50 to 52 terawatt hour forecast. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 78.9% in the quarter, and 90.3% for the full year, producing nearly 31 terawatt hours of zero carbon base load power. The combined cycle fleet operated an average capacity factor of 46.2% in the quarter, and 48.3% for the full year, generating approximately 22 terawatt hours in 2020. The three new combined cycle generating units, Keys, Sewaren and Bridgeport Harbor 5 posted an average capacity factor of over 75% for the full year 2020. And this coming June PSEG Power will complete the planned early retirement of the 383 megawatt coal fired Bridgeport Harbor 3 generating station, eliminating the last coal unit in power's fleet. For 2021, Power has hedged approximately 90% to 95% of its expected output of 48 to 50 terawatt hours, at an average price of $32 per megawatt hour, which represents an approximately $2 per megawatt hour decline from 2012. In addition 2021 average hedge prices no longer include cost-based transmission charges for New Jersey's basic generation service contracts due to a change in how they are billed and collected. This change further reduces revenues by approximately $3 per megawatt hour starting on February 1 of 2021. And is often on the cost side so there's no P&L impact as a result. We're forecasting 2021 non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA PSEG Power to be $280 million to $370 million and $850 million to $950 million, respectively. Power segment guidance reflects a full year of fossil and solar operations, lower expected generation volume and lower market prices, as well as the absence of a one-time tax benefit realized in 2020. Now, let me briefly address operating results from enterprise and other which reported a net loss that increased by $0.03 per share, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. And reflects lower tax benefits compared with the fourth quarter of 2019 and lower results from KCG Long Island. Regarding PSEG Long Island, following several challenges related to our response to tropical storm Isaias. We've made significant improvements in our outage management to lessening business continuity and other systems and processes. The Long Island Power Authority filed a complaint against PSE&G Long Island in New York State court last December, alleging multiple breaches of the operating services agreement or OSA in connection with PSE&G Long Island's preparation and response to tropical storm Isaias. We are in discussions with LIPA to address their concerns, which could include potential amendments to our OSA with LIPA and to resolve all claims. As a reminder, our 12-year contract is scheduled to run through 2025. We are committed to addressing the identified performance issues and to continue our strong track record of performance for Long Island customers since taking over operations. For 2021, PSEG Enterprise and other are forecasted to have a net loss of $15 million as parent financing and other costs exceed earnings from PSEG volume. PSEG ended 2020 with approximately $3.8 billion of available liquidity, including cash on hand of $543 million, and debt representing 52% of our consolidated capital. In December PSEG issued $96 million of 8.63% senior notes due April 2031, in exchange for like amount of 8.63% senior notes due April 2031, originally issued at Power, which were cancelled following the completion of the exchange. PSEG also retired a $700 million term loan at maturity. Power's debt as a percentage of capital declined to 27% on December 31 from 28%, at September 30. To summarize non-GAAP results for the quarter was $0.65 per share; full year non-GAAP operating earnings were $3.43 per share. And as we move into 2021, our guidance for the year is $3.35 to $3.55 per share, with regulated operations expected to contribute over 80% of consolidated results, arranged for 2021 reflects incremental investment in our T&D infrastructure, and a ramp up of a new clean energy future programs, as well as an assumed reduction return on equity of our transmission formula rate during the year at PSE&G. And a full year of fossil and solar operations at PSEG family. PSE&G also raised its common dividend by $0.08 per share for the indicative annual level of $2.04, a 4% increase over 2020. The 2021 indicative rate continues to represent a conservative 59% payout of consolidated earnings at the midpoint of 2021 guidance and utility earnings alone are expected to cover 140% of the dividend at the midpoint of 2021 guidance. We still expect our strong cash flow will enable us to fully fund PSE&G's five year $14 million to $16 billion capital investment program, as well as our plan to offer when investment during the 2021 to 2025 period without the need to issue new equity. That concludes my comments. And Shelby we're now ready to take questions.
Operator:
Your first question is from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan.
JeremyTonet:
Hi, good morning. I'm just wanted to start off with the Power by sales if I could, if there's any additional color that might be possible, including maybe the relative progress of solar versus the wind assets they're in, if the events in Texas last week have any impacts on the process overall.
RalphIzzo:
So I'll handle it because Dan will be too modest when Dan laid out for the board in July. But this process would look like in terms of participants timing, expected outcomes. I knew he'd done good work in terms of assessing it and coming up with some predictions. But I got to tell you, he's nailed every element of it. So the process is going exactly as planned. Our near-death experience in January of 2014 with our own polar vortex really has winterized these assets in a way that I'm sure Texas will now follow suit with. So no, Texas has not had any impact on us. I don't apologize for not being able to give more information, we will give greater clarity sometime in the summer, I'm sure as we get past the round two bids but so far, no surprises, the process is going well. And our assets are fully winterized as a result of the 2014 polar vortex we experience.
JeremyTonet:
Got it, that makes sense. Maybe just kind of flipping over to the transmission ROE and just what time expectations per transmission ROE reduction are incorporated into your 2021 guide here? And should we assume any changes on a prospective basis versus having a retroactive impact as well?
RalphIzzo:
Yes. The second question, when I can give greater specificity on, yes, it would only be prospective. Typically, when something is filed in FERC, notwithstanding the time lapse to the actual decision, the tariff adjustments go to the filing date and not sooner. So yes, it would be prospective as you can appreciate, just given the nature of the negotiation that we're involved in, we really can't disclose what we've assumed in terms of the guidance. But that shouldn't be a big surprise. I mean, we don't break out the guidance in terms of individual components, whether it's weather or outage durations of plants and things of that nature. So we are where we were for a while now, we're close, both sides are eager to resolve this. But in deference to the BPU, they've had an incredibly active agenda for the better part of two years. And they are dealing with the same challenges everyone else's in terms of working from home. And despite that they've successfully done one offshore wind solicitation and in the middle of the second one. They've done stakeholder prophecies to energy efficiency, so they're getting a lot done. And this ROE discussion is part of that - is part of the portfolio activities, but not resolved yet.
JeremyTonet:
Got it, fair enough. Figured I'd give it a try. Thank you.
RalphIzzo:
You won't be the first; you won't be the last I am sorry. You were the first.
Operator:
Your next question is from Julien Smith of Bank of America.
JulienSmith:
Hey, good morning, team. Thanks for the time and the opportunity. So what intriguing in your slides, you talked about potential investments in offshore wind here as well. Can you talk about; obviously, this is dynamic, and certainly evolving from quarter-over-quarter. Can you talk about your latest expectations on offshore and how they could fit into your capital budgeting process and earnings all together as best you see to date between expanding ownerships and potential new leases, et cetera?
RalphIzzo:
So, just a high level, Julien, I'm sure you're aware that there's an ongoing solicitation in Maryland. There's a second round in New Jersey, we have not fully developed our jointly owned Garden State Offshore Energy site jointly owned with Ørsted down off of the coast of Cape May. So there have been 29,000, I think, megawatts of hopes and dreams announced by states up and down the East Coast and 9,000 megawatts of awards granted. So even if we were to just focus in the Mid-Atlantic region, going from Maryland to Delaware to New Jersey, there are ample opportunities. And as I said, a moment ago, we still have leasehold that's not fully developed. So I don't think we've set it any more specific than that right, Dan. So we'll just probably leave that there.
JulienSmith:
But maybe if I can ask you to put parameters or how you think about this business, maybe either be more palatable, right? For instance, how do you think about return metrics? And palatability obviously, we see some data points out there, and the Americas and Europe of late and separately, you have any thoughts about what percent ownership in a given project, et cetera, what size it should be relative to the business, anything that you're thinking about to help size it out? And even at the minimum or how you think about the return palatability, if you will?
RalphIzzo:
Yes, I mean so first of all, I think is that we don't view ourselves as the lead developer, we do this in partnership with others. And we have an option for 25% on ocean land, and we have entertained, possibly going as high as 60% previously on this project, there is likely to be a transmission solicitation that will be managed by PJM on behalf of New Jersey, that we feel very confident that we could do something of that sort without necessarily needing partners although we will be welcomed to partnerships in that regard too. I think at the end of the day, our number one growth engine remains rate base growth and PSE&G. Having said that, there's a window of opportunity here as states aggressively pursue offshore wind, and we don't - have ourselves excluded from that. The commercial risk is completely mitigated by the PPA or the orders. And the operational risk is mitigated by making sure you partner with a world class partner. And we think we have that in Ørsted. So the risk profile is something that we're now comfortable with. It took us the better part of I guess it was close to two years of us kind of inching along, and we're very grateful for Ørsted's patience. But on the transmission side, I think the risk reward and we're very comfortable with, we always were and on the wind farm side, having the right partner mitigates that. We've never disclosed what our hurdle rates are, but suffice to say we, even though I think we can manage the risk, both the commercial and the operational risk, as I just mentioned, we wouldn't do these projects alone and we would only do these projects for about utility returns.
DanCregg:
Actually I know think about too is if they come about solicitation by solicitation. So as far as what the ultimate end game is going to be, it gets determined in those bite sized chunks as we work our way through both New Jersey, Maryland and transmission opportunity that Ralph talks about, so that will be the manner in which we will come to what the ultimate outcome is.
Operator:
Your next question is from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
MichaelLapides:
Hey, Ralph, thank you for taking my question. One on the utility just looking out at the CapEx guidance. I want to make sure I understand something, I'm looking out at this and it basically has transmission spins falling off a cliff. Meaning spending levels year by year. Just curious, when you think about the type of things that may backfill it to maybe where it doesn't fall off as much in years, three to five? What are the types of things-- what are the type of opportunities that your engineering teams are looking at?
RalphIzzo:
Yes, a couple things that happened, Michael is that even though the numbers look like they're coming down in years, four and five, as we get closer to that point in time, we learn more, and that very spend comes back up. So one thing you could see is just more of the same, you're not going to see us thus plan rose one mega project at least that's not readily predictable. But you could see more of the 69 kV upgrade and just the transmission budget coming up, as we get more knowledgeable about what the good status is. I think one of the areas though, that we are increasingly paying attention to and it's difficult to quantify is as a result of the pandemic, I believe long term patterns, lifestyle titles are going to change. I know a PSEG, were already telling our employees that many more than we'll be able to work from home. The combination of the household becoming now a place of business and greater penetration of electric vehicles, which are charged at the household. And the growth of electric devices in the home, whether it's smart devices, communication devices, is really changing the whole calculus behind the importance of reliability into the home. So I'm right now in the office with Dan and Carlotta, and we've got multiple 26 kV feeds into this building. Because Newark is a commercial center for New Jersey. That's true in New Brunswick, and many other downtown commercial areas of New Jersey. That's not true in my hall. And it's not true anybody's hall New Jersey, so the need to invest in the last mile to reflect the reliability expectations, as the home becomes a commercial center. And really a bunch of small business operations is a public policy discussion that I think is just beginning to take place. And there's no way reflected in our numbers. So I'd say you'll see those numbers come up in the future, they always come up in the future, either, because we'll just get smarter about the traditional stuff we need to do. Or there's this whole last mile question that we'll need to grapple.
MichaelLapides:
Got it. And then my question is this a little bit of maybe one for Dan, in the rate based by your exhibit, one of the footnotes talks about the billion a day and you brought it up the billion eight of transmission that is construction work in progress. Can you remind me you earn on that quip you just don't necessarily earn a cash return even that prompt here?
DanCregg:
Yes, we aren't on equipment, frankly. Michael, the reason that it really is in there is from the concept of when folks have done the calculation and tried to figure out whether or not there was over earning going on. The people sometimes would miss the equip component. And so all we really tried to do was lay that out so that people were aware.
MichaelLapides:
But if I think about the true earnings power of the business meaning of transmission rate base, I would actually add that on top of the fact bars.
DanCregg:
Yes, right. Exactly.
Operator:
Your next question is from Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
SteveFleishman:
Hey, good morning. Hey, guys. So just a question on the 80% to 90% from PSE&G that you highlighted Ralph. So that's a little bit less than I would have thought after selling these fossil assets. And I know you mentioned offshore wind, but that's not for a while. So could you just give us is it more like 90% once the sale is done and before the offshore wind? And then it kind of comes down again, some or how should I think about that range?
RalphIzzo:
Yes, so listen building blocks that I'm sure you're aware of it, Steve, right, so the foundation, the house, the roof, everything, but maybe the unnecessary furniture is the utility. And that's got a rate base CAGR of 6.5% to 8%. And that'll do a little worse, because of O&M are a little better because the load growth. But as you know, both those numbers have hovered around zero. And they'll be some regulatory lag, maybe in some of the final years as clause mechanisms have some non clause recovery back into them. But that's utility is what 80% this year close to that, and continue to grow. Then this year, we're still including all fossil that'll go away. But hopefully, New Jersey will abide by their own energy master plan, and nuclear will still be around. So that'll be on top of the utility. You may recall our BGSS that sticks around that's on top of the utility. Long Island notwithstanding, you saw its challenges worse and we will stick around. That's why I'm talking truly. And then yes, we're making some assumptions in year 2024, mostly 2025, on Ocean Wind. So those are making up the other 10% to 20%. And I'd rather not narrow that and I certainly don't want to give it to you by year, I do want to remind you that we are very much interested in willing after the, if we sell the fossil units or when we sell the fossil units, once this process is over, going to revisit the notion of multiple year earnings guidance and investor meeting where we kind of recalibrate everyone and try to provide greater clarity of what the company looks like with those different components. But right now we're in the middle of a competitive solicitation for the assets in the middle of the ZEC negotiation and ROE negotiation that's what I can give for you so.
SteveFleishman:
Okay. And then one other question just on nuclear, if I heard you right, I think you reiterated that you would shut the nuclear plants. But I think you said if the ZEC is anything but the $10 it currently is given the market prices are even lower. Is that correct or?
RalphIzzo:
That was correct, Steve. We value our corporate citizenship in the state. And I think we've shown over the past few months, how important it is to follow the BPU's leadership in terms of its clean energy aspirations and Governor Murphy's aspirations, we've had some very constructive outcomes because we have followed their lead on energy efficiency, on AMI, on electric vehicles. Having said that, the nuclear plants need more than $10. And what we've said is we'll look at longer term solutions for that and hopefully coming out of the federal government with a price on carbon. Hopefully, if that doesn't work coming out of the FRR process. And that's the only reason. And the only reason why we would accept $10 now is because that's what the state can do. So that's really not a negotiation, that's just kind of a match the state has available to it. That's why we need it. And we need more than that. So that's kind of where we start, right? If you need more than $10, you can't accept less than $10. And whenever the party can only offer you $10, then that Venn diagram ends up at one point and only one point, which is $10. But that does not preclude the need for additional work after that. And at the risk of stating the obvious if you don't get the $10 then what confidence can you possibly have, that the longer-term solution can be realized, and that's why we would shut the unit. So I guess I could have simply said yes to you but I gave you maybe wife's explanation over that.
Operator:
Your next question is from David Akira of Morgan Stanley.
DavidAkira:
Hi, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. I was going to ask a basically a follow up on that last line of thinking with the new FERC in place, do you think there is chance that New Jersey doesn't end up pursuing FRR if it sees a new path ahead for morpher and how do you think about your strategy with a nuclear plant if that were to happen?
RalphIzzo:
So I mean the short answer is anything is possible, right? And I think what New Jersey's goal is at least what we've encouraged New Jersey to set as its goal. And it wasn't because we any better insights than the state already did are to not pay twice the capacity. And under the current construct, without question, offshore wind will not clear the market. At some point in the future, it's likely nuclear won't clear the market; I'm referring to the capacity market. And solar certainly won't clear the capacity market. So as New Jersey grows its carbon free footprint and even its existing carbon free footprint from nuclear, you'd have increasing double payments for capacity, and it is about $25 million to $30 million per gigawatts that you end up paying. So that starts adding up very quickly. Now, if you went to a unit specific FRR, which is something that we were supportive of, during the original capacity market discussions, if PJM could come up with some sort of stakeholder process that has a reasonable price on carbon, there's a whole bunch of ifs and no, bore you with the litany of them, because they're all equally improbable, then yes, maybe the state can do something differently than simple, broad based FRR. But at the end of the day, the mechanism has to be one that avoids the customer a burden of paying twice for capacity that truly would be outcome.
DanCregg:
And David, to some degree, it also comes down to timing. So as things stand today, you do have that double payment issue that Ralph talked about. And so your question is, if something changes at work with something changed in New Jersey, and so part of it comes down to how quickly might you see something change at work? And where would New Jersey be in their process, and these things tend to not happen extremely quickly. So against that backdrop, you do start to have that double payment Ralph talked about in 2025. So it's a bit of unnecessarily raise but it's two timelines coming to that year's capacity determination with respect to how quickly FERC can move, and what New Jersey's reaction would be to whatever it is they do and how much of a solution it is to the double payment problem. So those are some of the things to think about with respect to how the parties might be approaching that change from the
DavidAkira:
Got it, that's helpful color. And just in terms of how that influences your strategic thinking around the nuclear plant, it sounds - is it fair to say, if you do get a $10 ZEC, you still think there's more that would be needed for the nuclear plants to provide longer term clarity beyond just getting that though?
RalphIzzo:
Yes, chipping become obvious since the passage of the law 2018, how markets continued to decline is more so than we expected them to. That's only going to get worse as more zero marginal cost renewables are introduced to the market. And we're in a market that dispatches on marginal costs. And nuclear plants rely on those infra marginal revenues to make their economics work. And that dispatch curve is getting flatter and lower each passing year. Secondly, the state has very ambitious carbon free energy goals which are great, which we completely applaud. But they're so ambitious that they exceed the current licensed life of the nuclear plants. And you're not going to go into re-licensing, and you're not going to make capital improvements on the basis of the three-year ZEC process, even if it was adequately compensated, which it isn't. So the two problems with ZEC law are the overall dollar amount and the duration of the review process. So and we've sworn that over the past few years, if the market continues to implode on itself, so for nuclear plants, our fossil does right, they're running 70 plus percent of the time and Dan said they're enjoying nice spark spreads and they're working beautifully. So yes, longtime nuclear questions and equalization, but there are multiple pathways to get there.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Fremont of Mizuho.
PaulFremont:
Hey, how are you? Just a quick question on the hedging. There were, I think some other adjustments that were originally in your hedge calculations, like some renewable programs and maybe ancillary charges. Are those eliminated as well for now? Should there be sort of no adjustment whatsoever to the $32 number that you're providing?
DanCregg:
No, think about the opposite way, Paul, the single change is the Delta with respect to transmission charges.
PaulFremont:
So you would continue to add the other charges into your number?
DanCregg:
Yes, or stated another way, not try to back out those pieces as a revenue-oriented number, we've stripped out capacity as a separate item. And now, since transmission is not in the revenue, it will not be in the revenue.
PaulFremont:
Okay. And then the other question I have is you have a 25% option, obviously, on Ocean Wind, if you were to go to a higher level, would that just be a separate negotiation that you would need to have with Ørsted or are there any contractual rights that you have to go higher?
RalphIzzo:
We have to get there, Paul, yes.
PaulFremont:
Okay, and then the last. If I take your comments, you guys don't want to be sort of a majority project. So the limit of where you would be is roughly 50% or less?
RalphIzzo:
That's correct.
Ralph Izzo:
So I think we're at the appointed hour. Thank you all for joining us. Just by way of recap. The rate base grows with the utility as it has for the past decade and plus continues to drive the EPS growth at PSE&G, all the while, doing things that are vitally important to customers. And we continue to project now a 6.5% to 8% CAGR in that rate base over the next five years, doing things that are really driven by state policy leadership and an aging infrastructure that has to attract our attention to meet the need of customers. I think an add is a positive outcome from what has occurred last year is this consolation incentive program providing much greater even greater stability to utility revenues. The positive constructive outcomes we've had with the BPU, again, at the risk of repeating myself, by virtue of us following their lead on energy master plan and public policies, accomplishments that they had targeted, have all just made for a terrific, terrific set of outcomes. Yes, we do have an ROE and negotiation and A ZEC application that is in front of the BPU. Resolution to those two items will introduce a prolonged period of regulatory comm and significant execution of these great programs that we've gone through before. We will give you a greater clarification on the strategic alternatives in a couple of months. But I said a moment ago, I couldn't be happier with the fact that it's met every one of our expectations so far, and I think it will continue to do so. I would be remiss if I didn't close my remarks that I have, sadly, for each of the last three quarters by expressing my thanks to all of you who have family members or loved ones who are frontline workers and what is an improving situation to support a tragic situation related to COVID-19. I know that it's got to be a tremendous burden on you and your families, but please, from our family at PSEG a sincere thank you to anyone who knows is engaged in that. Otherwise, we look forward to seeing you albeit as pixels over the next few weeks. I know the budget conferences coming up and maybe in the not-too-distant future. Seeing you live into the flesh. Thank you. Have a great day everybody.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Sylvia and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, October 30, 2020 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 P.M. Eastern Time today until 11:59 P.M. Eastern Time on November 5, 2020. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Sylvia. Good morning and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's third quarter 2020 earnings release attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA which differ from net income as reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings materials. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta and thank you all for joining us this morning. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2020 of $0.96 per share versus $0.98 per share in last year's third quarter. PSEG's GAAP results for the third quarter were $1.14 per share compared with $0.79 per share in the third quarter 2019. Our results for the third quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the year-to-date to $2.78 per share, up 5.3% compared to the $2.64 per share in the first months of 2019. This performance reflects the strong contribution from our regulated operations at PSE&G, cost controls at both the utility and PSEG Power. Lower pension expense and the favorable settlement of tax audits I mentioned last quarter. We delivered a solid quarter of PSE&G and PSEG Power. We’re updating PSEG’s non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for 2020 to the range of $3.35 to $3.50 per share, which removed $0.05 per share from the lower end of our original guidance range. Last month the New Jersey Board of Public Utility, I’ll refer them to as the BPU approved the settlement as the energy efficiency component of our clean energy future filing. As you know, we proposed a comprehensive filing covering energy efficiency, energy cloud to analytic vehicles in storage in October of 2018 to help deliver on the goals of New Jersey’s clean energy act. The VP is in decision on energy efficiency will enable PSE&G to invest $1 billion over three years to help bring universal access to energy efficiency for all New Jersey customers. These programs will lower customer bills, shrink the carbon footprint and give them control over their energy resources.
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you Ralph and good morning everybody. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2020 of $0.96 per share versus $0.98 per share in last year's third quarter. We provided you with information on slide 9 regarding contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter and slide 10 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter over quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business and I will now review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $0.61 per share for the third quarter of 2020 compared with net income of $0.68 per share for the third quarter of 2019 as shown on slide 14. The utility's third quarter results reflected ongoing growth from our investment programs offset by certain items largely reflecting tax adjustments that are timing in nature. For the year-to-date period PSE&G results are on track to achieve our full year guidance driven by revenue growth from ongoing capital investment programs, lower pension expense and cost control. Investment and transmission adding $0.04 per share to third quarter net income. Electric margin was a penny per share favorable compared to the year earlier quarter driven by higher weather normalized residential volumes mostly offset by lower commercial and industrial demand. Summer 2020 weather was a penny per share ahead of weather experience in the third quarter of 2019. O&M expense was $0.03 unfavorable versus the third quarter of 2019 primarily reflecting our internal labor costs from tropical storm Isaias and timing of certain maintenance activities partly offset by the reversal of certain COVID-19 related costs recognized in prior quarters. In July the BPU authorized PSE&G to defer certain expenses incurred because of the COVID-19 pandemic. To reflect that order PSE&G deferred certain COVID-19 related O&M and gas bad debt expense previously recorded and established a corresponding regulatory asset of approximately $0.05 for future recovery. Largely offsetting this timing item PSE&G reversed a $0.04 accrual of revenue under the weather normalization clause for collection of lower gas margins resulting from warmer than normal winter earlier in the year due to recovery limitations under that clause's earnings test. Distribution related depreciation lower net income by a penny per share and non-operating pension expense was a penny per share favorable compared with last year's third quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. Your first question comes from Jeremy Tonet from JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to start off with offshore wind if that's okay and just want to see as the recent or said commentary on seeing delays on some of their U.S. based onshore projects influence your thinking and your involvement here and do you have any thoughts on some of the feedback course that's received in New Jersey some negative feedback recently?
Ralph Izzo:
So I think Jeremy that given the fact that this is an industry in its infancy candidly all of us expected there to be regulatory delays and the issue that I think you're referring to in the state of New Jersey was just over the extent to which offshore wind would help grow the economy and something as new as this the expectations for job growth versus the delivery of job growth and the pace of which is happening are not in complete alignment. But the direction is completely aligned. So the state remains committed to growing the industry. First it remains committed to supporting its project with the hiring practices that it put forth in its solicitation and I think it's just a case of people needing to talk to each other more often about how much and how fast but there is no dispute over what direction it's going.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That makes sense. So it sounds like this wouldn't influence your appetite for participating in future rounds of bids for offshore when like the one that's expected too?
Ralph Izzo:
No. That's correct. We've maintained that if we assume the 25% equity position we would only do so with the expectation of participating in future solicitation. We would not be particularly interested in knowing just the one-off project.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. Understood and just as switching gears here do you have any thoughts on the delayed BPU FRR evaluation here and do you have any thoughts on what some of the drivers of the delay could be and do you have any sense on how the FRR study could impact your ZEC application?
Ralph Izzo:
Well yes, this is I want to make sure everyone hears this clearly and quotes me and gets this back to the BPU I have to commend the BPU on the schedule they've maintained in what has been a very ambitious agenda. I mean when you think about all they've accomplished getting the first offshore complete getting the second one out the door initiating the analysis of the FRR, really the critical period for New Jersey is that when the offshore wind projects go commercial in 2024 and that will be all one thousand megawatts that'll be a fraction of that to not have to pay twice for capacity. That PJM capacity auction is not likely to take place until at best late in 2021 probably in 2022. So to my knowledge the BPU process is really on the schedule that the staff laid out that sometimes the end of this year early next year they'll get their consultants report out and then they'll consider whether they need legislation. We don't think that they do but it depends on the design. So I'd say Jeremy that they're in pretty good shape to avoid this double capacity payment by the 2024 auction at this point.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That is very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey good morning team. thanks or the time. Appreciate it. Hey good morning and thanks for the clarity there a second ago. Crystal clear. So I wanted to come back to this though how are you thinking about strategic decisions on the nuclear business as a sense today and I'd be curious if a sale or spin would be something that you would all would be amenable to and I'm sure you all are familiar with some of the media reports out there so just want to get ahead of that and try to see if that's a part of your considerations one way or another?
Ralph Izzo:
So Julien, there were two reasons why we opted to simply focus on our non-nuclear assets. Number one was to further solidify what we believe to be a strong ESG position and secondly as you know we are in the process as Dan and I just discussed the filing for round two of the ZEC process and we didn't think it was fair to New Jersey or the BPU to undertake ZEC process and not know who the eventual owners of nuclear might be. So we're more than happy to own and operate nuclear plants if they are meeting the state's energy needs, if they are marching the state towards its carbon aspirations and this is a critical and third condition they are economically viable and those plants are not economically viable without the ZEC and in fact I can't go into details because the financials that we submitted are confidential but they actually are need of more than $10 dollars per megawatt hour. We were willing to operate them at $10 megawatt hour because we do think that the direction of public policy both in New Jersey and in the nation is the increased recognition of the importance of carbon-free energy to mitigate climate change and that value will eventually be more fully recognized. So in the absence of that payment then we wouldn't be able to operate those plans and that's an old story. That's been going on for at least three or four years now. I'm not familiar with any media reports you're referring to so I'm not going to be able to comment on that but I'm sure that there will be a constant attention to this regulatory process.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Okay. That's clear enough and just in terms of the disclosures that you're providing to the BPU there is obviously been a lot of discussion about transparency in the need for nuclear support across a variety of states. I'm sure you're aware. Can you talk about how this go around might differ from the last initial request for ZEC especially from a disclosure perspective and I understand it may not necessarily all be public either but I'm just curious if you can elaborate a little bit.
Ralph Izzo:
Well, so as you know there's two main differences in round two versus round one and then I'll turn it over to Dan for a second. In round two we have the ability of the BPU to set a number between zero and ten whereas in round one it was either zero or ten. Also in round two there's a much more transparent public process that we think is great for everyone. There'll be a preliminary decision in December followed by evidentiary hearings response to the preliminary decision and the final decision in April. So I think that that's great because look those plants are necessary as we pointed out they save consumers almost $200 million a year 175 million a year over 10 years they eliminate 13 million tons of carbon a year. They provide employment for 1600 PSEG employees 5,000 employees in general but the reality is at the current advantages enjoyed by natural gas in the absence of a price on carbon and at the subsidized levels for renewables which are far above the cost of nuclear they're under tremendous economic disadvantages and you don't have to do a very sophisticated analysis. NEI published what the average cost is of operating a nuclear plant and it's about $30 per megawatt-hour and in fact if you look at what round-the-clock prices are doing and head capacity to it it's around $30 megawatt-hours. So unless you think that companies should invest over a billion dollars a year for zero return those plants are not reliable. And then of course the last attribute in addition to their carbon free energy is they are baseload workforces and despite our enthusiasm for wind and solar mother nature doesn't answer to us and the dispatch ability of those resources we all know screams for the need for battery storage or some storage mechanism and that just adds additional economic pain to customers above and beyond what they're already experiencing. So nuclear is a good slam dunk winner and I'm sure the regulatory process will bear that out.
Dan Cregg:
Yes Julien, I think Ralph said everything I would have said about it and just the about the process and how everything runs and the only other thing I would add is just as we go into this process we're in a more challenging price environment. So things have from the standpoint of the environment that the facilities are in from a market environment you've got to continue declining forward prices and incremental zero cost energy that's coming online. So it is more challenging economically than it's been in the past. So we'll go through the process that Ralph described in the next six months or so.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great. Excellent. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from from Guggenheim Partners.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi good morning. It's actually stepping in. Thanks for the very comprehensive update and just wanted to kind of follow up on some of your thinking on the infrastructure programs and kind of the clean energy future programs just interpretive kind of longevity at the current CapEx levels how would those kind of programs help New Jersey reach the broader policy goal in the same line of thinking kind of how long the runway is going to speak for the infrastructure programs like the VSMP and so forth.
Ralph Izzo:
Good questions. Two are related but slightly different answers. On the kind of traditional infrastructure programs remember what we're doing there is we're not building new infrastructure to meet new demand which was the primary thesis for utilities for many, many decades in the better part of the entire 20th century. In our case we're having to replace an aging infrastructure not because of a growth in demand but because of a variety of factors including increased reliance upon electricity for our way of life and more extreme weather conditions driven by what we believe to be climate change others may choose that other beliefs. So that aging infrastructure replacement program is essentially perpetual because we cannot replace that aging infrastructure in just a few short years. It would just be prohibitively expensive. So you get in this position where as it was the case for our gas system modernization program even at the $400 million a year that we're currently spending we have another 20 years worth of work to do then and since we started that program 10 years ago we will then have our newest pipe be 30 years old and some of the pipe that's currently 50 years old will be 70 years old by that point and the same can be said about our transmission system and our substations. As you probably know we haven't even touched the last mile of our electric system. We have done this double digit or near double digit growth rate in our regulated utility focused primarily on cast iron gas main transmission and electric substations and now with the increased dependence of residential customers on reliability which we think will have a post-COVID permanency to it. We do things that increase reliability to the home that last mile is going to become increasingly important. So there is interest in New Jersey around helping the state recover from its current economic downturn by accelerating some of that infrastructure replacement work and doing more in the way of kind of stimulus activities because it is essential work. That could lead us to perhaps deviating at least in the short term from what is the one and only controlling limitation to the amount of investment that's required and that's the impact on the customer bill. As you may be aware we have steadfastly tried to pace ourselves so that our clause recovery and our formula rate treatment at FERC plus recovering the state now formula rate treatment at FERC allows us to make this infrastructure replacement yet allow the bill to kind of move up that CPI. A bill that by the way is 30% below where it was 10 years ago in nominal terms and 40% below where it was 10 years ago in real terms. So stimulus might allow us to break that rule a little bit and just recognizing that if you take customers utility bills from 3% of the disposable income to 3.06% of their disposable income that's a price worth paying to put people to work and make some major infrastructure improvements. Separate and apart from that though is the question you asked about the clean energy future and that's a different set of circumstances right. In our case where we're choosing focus is on energy efficiency which I call the quadruple winner. It is 8 million less tons of carbon emitted into the atmosphere so the environment loves it. There is lower bills for customers who participate and in fact there's a net savings to the whole customer base of $1 billion. So customers are smiling. There is over 4,000 jobs that we think we can create so the economy smiles and our shareholders are getting a 9.6% ROE with contemporaneous return on the investment and it's really it's just a phenomenal investment opportunity and opens up a whole new definition of rate base for us one that I am firmly convinced the state will be eager to continue beyond the three years of the program. In fact if you look at the $1 billion three-year grant that a lot of approval we received that's actually a faster run rate in the initial period than the 2.5 billion six-year program that we had originally proposed. Now that for the state's aspiration for other clean technologies such as offshore wind and solar that is a different story. That is far more expensive and that will have to rely upon the price curve coming down and technology bending that price down and the state pacing is appetite for that so as to not overburden the consumer but in terms of the areas that we're involved with I have a high degree of confidence that there's very strong support for continuing those. Sorry for the long answer.
Unidentified Analyst:
That's definitely well appreciated. Jumping again to follow up a little bit on kind of the fossil asset sales kind of process and some of the thoughts around it I mean it's obviously a pretty good set of assets in the market and there's kind of the equity part of the price tag is definitely going to be sidewall just kind of given the fact that there's not much leverage on the business. Curious to get some of your thoughts on like capital recycling and kind of what the priority would be for reinvestment buybacks and kind of how to keep it all efficient.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So it's a great question and you're right if you take a look at power it is not very heavily levered. There is about $2.4 billion right now debt outstanding and by the time we get to the end of a potential transaction you would see about a billion that would be redeemed at that point. So about a billion four and agree your commentary if you think about the quality of the assets that we're talking about that would provide some more than sufficient capital one would think to take care of that debt. So yes you would think about the repayment of that debt mean first and foremost you would think about having excess capital and I would say really general corporate purposes is what is normally conveyed and I think that's the right conveyance here. I think that we've talked about an existing capital program that's in place. We talked about the potential for some incremental capital identification. We have always gone through our five-year plan with a declining capital forecast and by the time we get to the end of that five years there's other opportunities that we've seen on the other side and whether some of that could be something from a stimulus perspective coming out of this economic impacts that we've seen from COVID this is to be seen. So I think the continued deployment of capital into the utility is the first place that we would look to and then to the extent there's excess we would weigh that against incremental potential opportunities for capital as well as some kind of a return to the extent that those opportunities didn't exist from it could be dividends could be buybacks so not out of the question but certainly not first and foremost on the list.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra from Evercore.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey good morning team. Thank you for taking my question. Ralph can I just go back to the -- I want to understand, make sure I understand the conservation efficiency program. What is the Intel? Does that protect you from going forward from like lost revenues from storms whether something like COVID? Can you just talk through that and then second like is this a pilot program where you have to make a filing every other year or things like that or this basically a permanent thing at this point?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, Dan will answer the question about how often to make the filing but I do know that whenever we file we get we don't suffer any lag associated with that but I forget it for six or twelve months. What I was referring to and hopefully I'm answering your question if not just nudge me back in the right direction is look the city of New York as an example we have a dual 26KV distribution loops into the city because we have commercial centers that have thousands of employees who come here every day and expect the lights to be on, the air conditioning to run and the computer systems to operate. They are not here now. There is four of us in the office today and most of our employees are working from home. Well the level of reliability they have in their homes is quite different than the level of reliability that we have feeding this building and it's not because it's the PSEG building that's just typical of businesses in New York area. So if now the home is going to become the place where not only you eat and sleep but you work, you fill up your gas tank so to speak. You energize your vehicle. You charge all of your information tools; your phone, your computers that grid is not prepared to deliver the kind of reliability that people will expect when another Isaias hits or another super storm Sandy or just the typical northeast thunderstorm. So the investment in the last mile what I'm talking about there is the overhead system will need to be made if the economy is not to come to a grinding halt during your fairly routine storm events that we have nowadays and I'm not calling Sandy a routine event but as we've seen in some parts of the country whether it's what's going on in the gulf or what we have had in the past in the northeast we are getting more intense weather events and you can't have people who just stop work for three to five days if they have that weather event when they're working from home. So that's what I was referring to and I think policymakers are really plugging into that. Now we will benefit from AMI and our ability to identify outages at the individual customer location and regrettably New Jersey does not have that capability now but I do believe our BPU commissioners understand the importance of that and I'm hopeful and optimistic we can resolve that in just a few short months but Dan did you want to talk a little bit about how we file for the same?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So if you think about what New Jersey is trying to get at from an energy efficiency program standpoint it is a step change from where we have been historically and I think it will it literally will catapult the state to among the best in the country with respect to energy efficiency programs and so if you think about a program of that magnitude it's important from the utility perspective as it pursues that that there is some kind of a form of lost revenue recovery and that's what was in the filing has been a topic of the discussion that we have gone through as we've gone through the process and where we ended up was really borrowing from something that the gas utilities largely had in place historically and that's the CIP, the conservation center program. So it is we talked about a little bit in our prepared remarks it is an annual filing it would begin into 2021 if you think about let the program get up and running as we implement the lost revenue recovery for the program that we're talking about and so it would start June for the electric side of the business and October for the gas side of the business you think about the seasonality of those businesses it's a very logical way to do it and it will be an annual filing. It is not a lag oriented filing. Basically it's going to cover the changes from the baseline year that you have I think the way to think about that is the last ray case from the usage perspective and will essentially be put in place to be able to recover the shortfalls or provide the excess back to basically bring back to a more stable rather than stream. So I think it's a great solution for the challenge that would come about by virtue of loss revenues through an energy efficiency program. So I think we ended up in a very good place there.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thanks there Dan. I just want to be clear does that only cover loss revenues from efficiency programs or does it cover loss revenues from weather related changes or perhaps loss revenues from storms and other events?
Dan Cregg:
Yes it is more broad than the energy efficiency. So it's going to cover broader loss revenues in fact if you think about our gas, weather normalization clause that will essentially be suspended against the backdrop of this. This will kind of supersede that. It's broader.
Durgesh Chopra:
Excellent. That's super constructive. Then maybe just a quick follow-up on the fossil transactions. Does the and I appreciate you launched the process here last quarter knowing the elections around the corner but does the potential tax rate change impact you're thinking at all does it matter for that transaction for the non-nuclear potential sale transaction?
Dan Cregg:
Yes I mean look obviously it will have an impact on the dollars that flow out of what happens but it will not change the bottom line intent and nature of where we are headed. I think that's the simplest way to say.
Durgesh Chopra:
Thanks guys. I appreciate the time.
Ralph Izzo:
Absolutely. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from from Morgan Stanley.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey good morning. Thanks for taking my question.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi David.
Unidentified Analyst:
Could you give an update a status update on the transmission are we discussion that's going on with the BPU?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. David unfortunately can't say much more than what we did in our initial remarks because they are confidential. I do think that there is still a lot of good will and good intent on the part of all parties. So it's a three-person conversation. It's us, the BPU and the consumer advocate, the ratepayer advocate and clearly what motivates our colleagues in the BPU and the ratepayer advocate is providing immediate relief to New Jersey consumers in the form of lower rates in particular exacerbated by COVID-19 challenges. What motivates us is removing some uncertainty over where things could end up if we went to FERC but and we've closed a significant difference in points of view from when we first started talking but there still is a small gap between us. Whether or not we can resolve that I really do I remain hopeful but I can't say for sure that we will. So we're still talking to each other and I think that's a positive thing and the gap is small that's a positive thing but it's not done and I don't want to violate the confidentiality of it by saying anymore.
Unidentified Analyst:
Understood. Thanks for that update and I was just curious if you could touch on the gas utility side of the business your thoughts in the long term maybe vision for that business and how you're thinking about it in the context of on your side taking an EG step in the sale of some of the merchant assets and then also in the context of the state moving aggressively over time to reduce its gas consumption.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So this is one we get this question quite a bit I got to tell you I respect everybody's right to ask the question but of the ten things that keep me awake at night this one's like number 100. We've the state under one of the greenest governors in the nation is asking us to spend more money on the gas distribution system largely to eliminate the methane leakage that results from an age system and as you know if you look at the 100 year effect of methane versus carbon dioxide it's about 28 times bigger methane being 28 times bigger than carbon dioxide. So there is definitely a commitment towards preserving the existing infrastructure as it relates to natural gas. Also I would point out that over 90% of the homes in New Jersey cook and heat their homes with natural gas and for them to change that would cost on average $10,000 and that's for a bunch of homes that not that long ago moved from oil because of energy security concerns and pollution concerns. So that's not exactly something that anyone is going to tackle in the near term plus I'm a firm believer someone who is adamant that we need to be far more aggressive on climate change as a nation that the consumer dividend associated with relatively clean fuel like natural gas really does motivate the nation to do something about carbon capturing storage. But to walk away from this resource which doesn't have any SO2, doesn't have any mercury, doesn't have any fine particles and has it's related impacts relatively well controlled just begs for carbon capturing storage solutions. So I don't think you are going to see a lot of new pipeline construction. You are obviously going to see a lot of gas plants still but I don't think you are going to see people heating their homes and cooking with the natural gas for many, many years to come. And last but not least if you think about the fact that when we, that we still have largely 75% fossil fuel driven electric system in the nation and then New Jersey is part of the PJM with a large fossil fuel component is taking that fossil fuel wasting two thirds of its energy content, converting the other one third into electricity and then using that one third to then heat home and cook is just really bad use of the environmental dollar. That two third that is wasted is referred to as waste heat and if you didn't waste it by converting it into electricity you simply converted it directly into hot water in home and hot air in home you have captured a lot more of the energy content. So it's just -- I suspect over the long term as we do better job developing carbon capturing storage.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys first of all congrats on a good quarter. Second two questions. One is New Jersey specific and trying to think about what has to happen to have a more significant extent expansion of batteries or storage in New Jersey is it a price point question meaning a cost question? Is it a kind of a market design or a regulatory design and construct question? Would love your thoughts Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
I just think it's a question of how much is on the plate right now Michael I mean the state has in its clean energy act passed in May of 18 financial law in May of 18 a 600 megawatt goal for battery storage next year I guess I think it's by the end of the year and of course we're nowhere near that but when you're spending $98 and $0.10 for offshore wind when your solar renewable energy credits at $220 and your transition program for solar renewable energy is that I think 150 or 175 per megawatt hour there's just so much you're willing to put on the customer's plate. So battery storage has gotten the sort of lower priority with some of the kind of core thing further along in and I mentioned one of them before AMI is something that is just screaming to be implemented not only because of the operational benefits it provides but because of the consumer benefits it provides in terms of helping the customer understand where they are in their bills during a month as opposed to waiting to the end of the month what it might mean for us in terms of more granular data and being able to do energy efficiency in ways we never did before. So I just think that battery storage is falling victim to some other priorities.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one other Ralph with the election next week obviously one of the candidates has been very open about talking about higher corporate income tax rates. How do you think about what that means not just for PSEG especially as you become less focused on the non-regulated business but also what it means for the customer on the customer bill and the pace of change in that bill?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, as you know the regulated business historically has been able to test through taxes and higher taxes will result in a greater bill impact to be sure but I think that that that's we're getting kind of far ahead of ourselves in that regard and I don't want I certainly don't want to be one to predict with what might or might not happen on Tuesday. So Dan I don't know if you have any comments on that but I'm getting all sorts of hand signals from our folks here that we've gone passed out a lot of time and folks may have other commitments that they need to do with, but so Dan do you want to?
Dan Cregg:
Yes Michael, like I would just say look the first thing that that needs to happen is it needs to get enacted and so it'll take some time for that to happen and then when it does as Ralph says yes the kind of the statutory rate will pass through on a normal basis but you'll also have right now what you're seeing is the flow back of excess deferred go back and there's some restrictions on what can happen for certain of those excess deferred taxes and there's flexibility on others of those deferred taxes. So that's I think the other part of it. The other thing I would say is that it's very simple to think about a change in tax regime as being the corporate tax rate changes by X percent underlying that there's usually a whole host of other changes and those things can have pretty considerable impacts from a cash perspective positive or negative. So both to the company and to the customer. So the devil's in the details and there's usually a lot of details beyond just that headline rate that can have impacts up and down to both sides of the equation.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you. Much appreciate it guys.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Michael.
A - Ralph Izzo:
I think we are going to close right now and I would be remiss if I didn't simply say thank you to all of you for joining us and extending my sincere hope that all of you are safe and your families and friends are safe and healthy and free of this dreaded virus and its impacts and also to say to each of you that know of someone or have any kind of relationship with someone who's on the front line as a health care provider assisting with this clear second wave and spike in this virus to extend our thanks as a company to those individuals who are doing that whether that's in our operating region or elsewhere and I know that we thank our employees every day for providing the services that enable those frontline workers to do their job. I suspect we'll see many of you in a couple weeks at EEI virtually. Be safe on Halloween. Protect your kids. Wear your mask, wash your hands, and keep safe distance and thanks again. See you soon folks.
A - Dan Cregg:
Thanks everybody.
A - Ralph Izzo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen this does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Phyllis and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, July 31, 2020 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 P.M. Eastern Time today until 11:30 P.M. Eastern Time on August 11, 2020. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Phyllis. Good morning and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's second quarter 2020 earnings release attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings materials. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta and thank you all for joining us. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2020 of $0.79 per share versus $0.58 per share in last year's second quarter. PSEG's GAAP results for the second quarter were $0.89 per share compared with $0.30 per share in last year's second quarter. Our results for the second quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2020 to $1.82 per share. This increase over non-GAAP results of $1.66 per share for the first half of 2019 reflects the growing contribution from our regulated operations, effective cost controls at both the utility and PSEG Power. The absence of two extended plant outages that took place in last year's second quarter and the favorable settlement of audits covering the 2011 through 2016 tax years, which in combination of mitigated much of the weather related headwinds experienced in the first quarter of 2020. Slides 11 and 13 summarizes the results for the quarter and the first half of the year. We are especially pleased to report solid operating and financial results at both businesses. Our employees continue to effectively respond to the challenges and requirements of providing essential energy services under extraordinary conditions. The statewide mandated closure of most businesses, schools and government buildings in New Jersey contributes to a decline of approximately 7% in weather normalized electric sales for the second quarter. As the state continues the gradual reopening of businesses and activities, effective containment of COVID-19 should expand commercial activity and energy usage in the months ahead.
Dan Cregg:
Terrific, thank you, Ralph and good morning everyone. Ralph said PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2019 of $0.79 per share and that's versus $0.58 per share in last year's second quarter. We have provided you information on Slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. And in Slide 12, you will see a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes, quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. So now I'll go through each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $0.56 per share for the second quarter of 2020 compared with net income of $0.45 per share for the second quarter of 2019 and that's shown on Slide 16. PSE&G's second quarter results were driven by revenue growth from ongoing capital investment programs. Transmission results contributed an incremental $0.05 per share to second quarter net income which included approximately $0.02 per share related to 2019 true ups and lower pension expense. Gas margin was $0.02 per share favorable driven by Gas System Modernization Program investments, and weather normalized volumes. Favorable weather comparisons quarter-over-quarter added a $0.01 per share, and while electric bad debt expense is recovered through our societal benefits charge, gas related bad debt expense in excess of the amount included in rates reduced earnings by a $0.01 per share, compared to the second quarter of 2019 reflecting higher uncollectibles related to COVID-19. Distribution-related depreciation and interest expense each over net income by $0.01 per share and non-operating pension expense was $0.03 per share favorable compared to the second quarter of 2019. And lastly, flow-through taxes and other items were $0.03 favorable compared to the second quarter of 2019 as driven by the timing of taxes and the settlement of federal tax audits for the 2011 to 2016 years. Weather in the second quarter of 2020 was favorable compared with the second quarter of 2019 but year-to-date weather remained a mild headwinds. Early summer weather was below normal, but 7% warmer than second quarter 2019 and weather normalized electric sales in the second quarter declined by about 7% with residential loads up 8% but more than offset by commercial and industrial sales that were approximately 14% lower in the quarter.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Durgesh Chopra:
Hey, good morning team. Thank you for taking my question.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Durgesh.
Durgesh Chopra:
Maybe if you could help us just size the EBITDA for the non-nuclear generation assets you were thinking it's roughly 20% of the total Power EBITDA does that, does that seem reasonable, can you comment on that?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Durgesh, we have not broken that out in the past and are not going to do that at this juncture, I think as we continue to go through the process, more information will come forward but at this point we're not going to provide that and you can put together your best estimate.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. That's fair. And then maybe can you get your thoughts on, just in terms of the current market for -- just in merchant generation and going into the strategic review, how are you thinking about valuation for these assets just any high level color on that front?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I'd say Durgesh our expectations is to conduct an extremely robust process without redetermining or self-limiting it in any way and we'll let the market decide what these assets are worth there, or highly efficient with good heat rates, environmentally compliant and terrific market. So we're pretty optimistic about it.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay. Thanks for that, Ralph. And just one really quick one and then I'll jump back in the queue. Is there a regulated to non-regulated business mix, Ralph, that you were targeting from this transaction?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So what we're trying to do is become as regulated as is possible and whatever remains being as contracted as possible to remove that earnings volatility and to have people explicitly recognize the valuation that PSE&G deserves. So the contracted piece would be things like PSEG Long Island, right, that's a multi-year contract to operate that system out there. And then to the extent that the nuclear plants supported by ZECs, that's not exactly contracted but Plaza, supported by public policy and instrumental in terms of New Jersey's carbon aspirations.
Durgesh Chopra:
So basically get to regulated get to -- as high regulated plus contracted mix as you can.
Ralph Izzo:
Exactly right.
Durgesh Chopra:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
Given the merchant piece, yes.
Durgesh Chopra:
Understood. Thanks guys, I appreciate the time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just wanted to follow-up with the strategic process as well. And just wondering if you could give a little bit more flavor as far as why now versus any point in the past and I imagine it sensitive overall the process, but didn't know if you could speak at all to what would be the driver for a single asset verses multi-asset process and the release, you mentioned the release just trying to see what details you can share here?
Ralph Izzo:
Hey Jeremy, so we have said for quite some time that we've eventually thought these businesses will separate and we gave certain conditions under which we thought that would happen and one of those. I won't bore you with all of them, one of those was a sustained discount and valuation, which just will be a demonstration that investors were not satisfied with an integrated model. And we have a couple of things that we are in the process of tackling that seem to us at least to be in the market waiting for good news, recently the utility going to grow at 6.5% CAGR, but CEF is going to add to that. So that's the absence of a positive. We've been very public about our discussions on transmission ROE, so that's a driven -- unknown yet, but not a big unknown and we have good news coming out of the FERC MOPR in terms of our nuclear plants being able to bid basically zero and clear that market. So the remaining pieces that discount associated with having the integrated model and you can't put our current valuation all on the back of transmission ROE. You'd have to make forgive me, if it's impolite but some really crazy assumptions to get PSEG valuations that made sense with that being the only case. So we don't -- we're just right that pre-determined factor that we've always been paying attention to which is a sustained discount in our valuation appears to have manifests itself. So let's pursue acting on that.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great, that makes sense. That's helpful.
Ralph Izzo:
In the US, also in terms of pieces or the whole thing, I really at the risk of repeating what I said a moment ago, our plan is to make this process as robust as possible to get the cleanest signal from the market about how to optimize the value to our shareholders. And if that means one check for everything or 5,700, 6700 checks for each megawatt, I'm being observed there obviously, we will entertain that whole range.
Jeremy Tonet:
Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you, and then do you expect any material change to managing the nuclear portfolio after you did best -- you the power assets and how might the sale here impact your financing plans given the importance of power free cash flow to funding utility growth?
Ralph Izzo:
So in terms of the nuclear, I'll let Dan speaks to the financing, but in terms of nuclear operations, they have largely been separate for their entire existence, nuclear engineering group, it's on maintenance group, it's on operations group, it's on supply chain, it's on HR support. So that should be a non-event from an operations point of view.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think from a financing perspective, I think that one of the key uses of proceeds I think would be to pay down debt at Power, obviously, if you think about the indenture and the structure of that you've got the assets sitting underneath Power and to the extent that we see some separation there to sell the cash that would come in would be used to pay down that debt. So, you would also have less interest expense on a go-forward basis to the extent that would end up happening. And also a better business mix and a better credit profile. So the ability to draw some debt capacity from that as well. So that's how we would think about it.
Jeremy Tonet:
So overall, no real impact to -- future equity needs at this point.
Ralph Izzo:
That's correct,
Dan Cregg:
That's correct.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great, thank you so much for taking my question.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Jeremy
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning. Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Pleasure. Hey, so following up on Jeremy's question there. Can we talk about how you think of the financing on a go-forward basis. I don't want to get into the proceeds expectation, but again, given the backdrop of the Dominion transaction recently and the repositioning, can you just give us a little bit of a sense on how you think about financing the business prospectively, and specifically, how you think about equity needs relative to dividend and specifically emphasis on dividend if you can?
Ralph Izzo:
So, I'll start and then Dan will tell you the real story. I mean the utility earnings far in a way more than covering the dividend and the utility rate base CAGR growth is in excess of our dividend growth over the past 5 to 10 years. So from the point of view, the dividend policy, obviously reserving the right of the Board to always make decisions each quarter. We are highly confident that that's a no, never mind. In terms of the financing, the change in the business mix is going to change the potential for the parent to borrow and the delevering that will take place from the proceeds will -- and there'll be a residual a power function from the nuclear plant point of view will free up some investment capacity there as well. And don't forget Julien, our biggest cash generator for the past few years has been the utility. So we've done a bunch of analysis and obviously we'll wait and see how the process involves. But we feel pretty good about where our financing will come from and how we'll be able to support strong utility growth, that's the goal here right? Strong consistent utility growth.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Right. But -- go forward.
Ralph Izzo:
No. Go Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
I'm sorry, I was going to say to that point, how do you think about your balance sheet at a consolidated level, you talked about paying down if I heard you right, that basically the entirety of proceeds would be used to pay down power debt, but from a consolidated basis, how do you think about pro forma metrics from FFO to debt perspective right given a different risk profile, et cetera. I think that's probably another angle here right?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, whether it's the entirety of proceeds is to be determined, right. I think that it's more likely the entirety of the debt and then we'll see what ultimate aggregate proceeds are coming in. I think that where you land from the standpoint of overall debt capacity is going to be a function of that business mix and it's going to be a function of working with the rating agencies to make that determination. And but undoubtedly that is going to be an improvement and undoubtedly that's going to be some debt capacity that's going to open up from that perspective. So, that's how we're thinking about it, the fine points on that are ahead of us yet, but I think that's how you think about it, and frankly Julien, we tend to think about our overall financing is coming from the utility, a very strong cash from operations in its own right. And then, ultimately on the other side, there is a Money Pool where you'd have access to the power and parent as funding vehicles. And I think it's just more of a shift in potential to the parent, although the remaining operations that would sit at power certainly would have a stream of cash flow and would have the ability to have some financial.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Just quick question or clarification on the release, timing, key issues get resolved before actually completing?
Ralph Izzo:
I'll take that. Those are totally dependent processes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent, thanks for clarifying that especially the dividend.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Akira with Morgan Stanley.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you give your latest thoughts on the transmission ROE and negotiations in terms of what timing, you might be aiming for. And then, one other ways that you have in mind that could potentially mitigate some of the EPS impacts from that, whether it be on the equity ratio or cost allocation side of things?
Ralph Izzo:
So the negotiations are confidential, so I apologize for not being able to give you specifics, but you're -- the contents of your question actually gets right to the heart of the matter that this isn't about a single number what the ROE is this is about a variety of issues and what is the depreciation rate of the assets, what is the equity layer, associated with the business, what are acceptable components of the FERC formula rate filing, in terms of cost, that maybe had not been captured in the past that could be captured now so. So, what I'd say is both sides are eager to provide relief to customers and eliminate an uncertainty in terms of where this could end up. However what matters to us is the overall economics and I think what matters to the regulators as the cash impact on customers, so what we're trying to do is balance each of those variables, if you will, to each to achieve our stated objective. I'm hopeful we can do it, but I'm not certain we can do it and we're just unfortunately I can't say more than that at this point in time. I mean the BPU staff is working hard, the consumer advocates are working hard. We talked, I think at least we -- they have other things that they need to tend to do. But it is an overall economic assessment that we need to bring voluntarily that we believe is more difficult to achieve further. So to be continued.
Unidentified Analyst:
Excellent. And I guess would there be any change in the timing of the rough time frame that you've communicated in the past for that?
Ralph Izzo:
No, I don't think so. I mean yes, it's a question of the patients that BPU staff and the consumer advocate have, I mean they could file a complaint tomorrow and we certainly are not encouraging that, but we're not going to let the potential of filing a complaint make us deviate from what we know is an economically reasonable outcome and it would be a shame if we couldn't reach that outcome because the fact of matter as the complaint was filed, it wouldn't be resolved that FERC for years to come and New Jersey is struggling with 16% unemployment and all manner of economic challenges that it would be in everybody's interest, to try to return some rate relief to customers today. But no, I mean they could file tomorrow. I can't constrain that. But we're still trying.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Thank you for taking my question. Two questions, one on power and why sell down given the Clean attributes associated with it, I know it's small, but why sell down was solar assets, or why sell off the solar assets, why not keep those embedded and do you see utility scale solar or not see it as that in attractive business longer term?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So Michael, it's 479 megawatt, I think the biggest project is like 40 or 50 megawatt and most of them are 5 and 6. They spread around 17 states. So the scale is what we'd like it to be and candidly, we'd like to focus more of our green and carbon free attributes in the Mid-Atlantic region and as it relates to particularly nuclear potentially offshore wind plus, it's really because of its size, what I'm about to say, it's hard to prove it. We don't think we were getting proper credit for it in our own valuation, it's almost never picked up, you put an EBITDA multiple on something that's largely benefiting from investment tax credits and that doesn't get reflected in the stock price in a way that it might provide greater value to somebody who has a different calculus around, and know how to measure economic value. Yes, you said you had a second question, Michael.
Michael Lapides:
Yes, I had a second question. When I go back and look at your investor slide decks and I'm looking at the capital spending charts and slide decks from the last few months or so, in the CapEx by year, for PSE&G. And this has happened for years with your company, is that your forecast transmission CapEx to just fall off a cliff, kind of gradually every year, year two is lower than year one, year three is lower than year two, year four is lower than year three. It actually never happens. Do you have any incremental color about what could make 2021 or 2022 Transmission CapEx, materially different or significantly different than kind of what you've shown on your latest slide decks for those years.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So what you said about transmission is actually truly the capital program overall and we try to point that out in the good old days when we can actually face to face at an investor conference that is purely a function of the fact that things are less firm in years, three, four and five than they are in years one and two. To your specific question about transmission, most of the big projects that came out of the PJM RTEP are pretty much complete or near complete, and a good part of our effort now is in upgrading our 26 KV system, the 69, that will result in an overall reduction in the transmission spend. But that's fully baked into that 6.5%, 90% CAGR number that we put out there. The possible -- there is a possibility of increasing transmission investment as New Jersey continues its pursuit of offshore wind, and we go from a 1 gigawatt to potentially 7.5 gigawatt future, the current project, the had a very minuscule effect on the onshore transmission system, but as you start moving 7.5 gigawatts of power onto New Jersey, then that could change. So, and then last but not least, one of the things that the BPU is talking to all utilities, not just us about is the possibility for accelerating some of the infrastructure programs that we want to do to help create some economic stimulus and just given the age of our transmission infrastructure, and age of our gas infrastructure, that is something that could provide further opportunities for us as well.
Michael Lapides:
Are there any public filings or any dockets or proceedings open whether at PJM or whether at the BPU regarding incremental transmission spend over the next couple of years.
Ralph Izzo:
I don't think -- I'm wondering, there may be a BPU -- we can get back to you, Michael. There may be a BPU docket on how to bid future offshore wind projects, whether there is separate transmission from the actual wind farm, because as you probably know, the first solicit together and I thought the BPU is looking at it, it wasn't separate to them. But that may be over. I'm not sure, we can get back on that.
Dan Cregg:
Michael, it really was, it was offshore wind and the line coming into shore all in one solicitation. So to the extent that there is and that's -- that has been the only solicitation in New Jersey to the extent that there are more solicitations and more of an ability to link-up projects that are out in the ocean and then doing it in different ways and may be carving it up, that's the kind of thing that is being looked at as a policy question. But what I think that wherever that does landed -- it sounded like your question was really nearer term for capital deployment, really in the immediate term, I wouldn't expect I think your question was '21, '22 that would be on the early end of anything if anything would happen by that time frame, on what we're talking about. So if that's your timeframe, I think less likely, I think as we go out into the future and try to make some longer term determinations as how to best target the magnitude of offshore one that the state is looking for, you may see more into the future.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you, Ralph. Thank you, Dan.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Hey, how are you guys doing?
Ralph Izzo:
Great, Paul.
Dan Cregg:
How are you?
Paul Patterson:
Great. So I wanted to just sort of make sure that I just wanted to clarify something here. So the divestiture or the strategic review that's purely being basically driven by, if I understand stock valuation, there is no real significant change in market outlook or regulatory stuff that's going on here. This is just basically, hey, is it worth more -- the valuation equation basically mean it's a good time to look at it, am I understanding that correctly?
Ralph Izzo:
That's exactly right.
Paul Patterson:
And then with respect to the FRR, and I guess Ralph touched on this. There is no change in that process that you see taking place as a result of this and do we still, do you think I think you guys were basically under the impression that it was a very good chance, you don't need legislation, is that sort of still the case?
Ralph Izzo:
So, while -- question, so we're not driving the FRR bus right, that's being driven by the BPU's. So that's a totally independent process and I think the state is still trying to figure out, do they want FRR that simply secures the carbon free energy, because they want to do an FRR that secures all of their energy and I don't see that being any way shape or form influenced by our decision to divest of our fossil assets. In terms of legislation, that's a purely a function of what kind of FRR they design. So if there is a better than even chance that no legislation is needed, but for example in the creation of an old REC, legislation was required if there is a similar thinking about any other kind of particular technology, then there might be a need for legislation. So, it's just too early in the FRR discussions to be definitive. What you're accurately quoting, Paul is that once upon a time when we thought all that would happen was that our nuclear plants will be supported by BGS that they would not be a need for legislation, but I think the PJM compliance filing that shows that our nuclear plants are free to bid and computing capacity markets has really diminished the need for anything specific to our nuclear plants at this time.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, great. The rest of my questions have been asked and answered. And thanks so much, have a great one.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
Thanks. Hi, I think I just wanted to follow-up a little bit on Julien's line of questions. It looks like your downgrade threshold, according to the Moody's report put out earlier this year was 17% and you ended the year 1% below that. If you were to essentially lose some additional cash flows on the merchant side and use back leverage to fund the utility investment going forward that could put further pressure on your FFO to debt ratio. So I guess my question is, would you be willing to accept ultimately a downgrade in the credit rating or what would you see as potentially happening on the FFO to debt side?
Ralph Izzo:
There is obviously a whole lot of moving parts with respect to what we're talking about and a lot of discussions yet to be had and an ability to work through those things I think what I would say is, if you think about the overall business mix of enterprise and you think about that business mix without the non-nuclear generation, I think you have a more stable set of cash flows coming off the business and I think at the end of the day, you would have a lower threshold from the standpoint of what that newly designed entity look like. So I think that's a part of the calculus that becomes important in all this as we work forward and come to some determinations.
Paul Fremont:
Great, thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Paul, sorry, I was hoping, you'd ask us the question about CEF. By the way we, our annual run rate right now at CEF is $200 million a year, it's not $40 million a year, because we got a $110 million extension for six months. And also as far as we can tell, negotiations are pretty active. We expect either a settlement or decision about the BPU in September. So we're…
Dan Cregg:
Yes. No, I think we were definitely anticipating a settlement, I think is what we wrote in the last report that we put out. So we don't know the timing but we are very optimistic that there will be a settlement in that proceeding.
Ralph Izzo:
Okay. Well, my timing is September, just so the world knows that.
Paul Fremont:
Great.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Good morning. Thought I was going to . Hey, Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
How are you?
Steve Fleishman:
I'm doing great, thanks. So just couple of questions, first of all, you have kind of talked for a little while about kind of willingness to sell the fossil assets, so maybe could you just give a little more color like what is different now versus what you've already been saying for kind of 6 to 12 months. I think you were worried about getting a fair price to some degree. So, are you more confident on that or some color there?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I'd say two things, Steve. Number one is getting a fair price given the capacity market uncertainty in PJM, and that I think, we haven't run an auction. But the rules are pretty clear in terms of what's going to happen there, but I would say it's just the valuation discount has expanded to a point where it just -- it's not fair, it just doesn't make any sense for PSEG to be valued where it is and,
Steve Fleishman:
Right.
Ralph Izzo:
You can't put it all on the backs of transmission ROE without making truly assumption. So, it really was a case of enough is enough. And I do think that unlike the BEC process where we candidly, we did a little bit of a test program, we will announce a handful of people we thought might have interest. We're not going to do that, we're going to conduct a very robust process and we're going to -- just run it differently than that probably run. So I'd say, yes, there is a calming in the power markets and further expansion of the discount in valuation that conspire to say enough is enough.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, couple of just technical questions on it. Do you have the tax basis of the assets that you could provide us? And also just how should we think about dealing with like dis synergies. Is that something you can manage?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Steven, we have a tax basis number to provide, it's certainly going to be lower on the federal side, if you think about some of the expensing that's gone on. So I would think about it against the backdrop of some of bonuses -- on. And there's not a dis-synergy number, but obviously to the extent that you've got some of the costs, that you see getting spread across the various businesses, there will be some of that right, that you'll have a smaller entity to do to be able to spread over, but also as we look at this, we will be looking at efficiencies across the business as a whole to try to make up some of them.
Steve Fleishman:
Great. And then last question on offshore wind, is there any I may be over reading it but I kind of feel like there's a little bit more of a tone of kind of interest in moving forward with offshore wind growth, could you maybe just give a little more color on that talking about the future auctions coming up to and -- Yes.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so certainly, we're still, where we have been all along, Steve from the point of view trying to maximize this opportunity that's available to us to learn. We are in a different places, we have learned more. And we are gaining confidence and the ability to construct and own and operate probably not can't see the same in terms of the regulatory process, particularly at the national level. And you -- I'm sure are aware that New Jersey has begun discussions about round two solicitation, and that's expected to -- Yes, I think in a couple of months. So, the state is moving and I do believe all within Governor Murphy's first term, you will see solicitations and securing a 3,500 megawatt of offshore wind. So this is becoming more and more real with every day and I have no reason to not believe that the state's full aspirations of 7,500 megawatt as well as New York state's 9,000 megawatts and so on and the list won't be realized. So you are picking up in my voice that this is going to happen at a scale that I wouldn't have predicted three or four years ago, but you see it coming along right now.
Steve Fleishman:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
We have time for one final question. Your next question comes from the line of with KeyBanc.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thanks. Can you hear me?
Ralph Izzo:
Hi.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe if I could sneak in a couple of related questions on the Power side, so you're keeping nuclear power plants and we understand they have been substantially derisked via ZECs and is there -- however a scenario where you can envision that they may find different home also and then another question, I had is there any implications for -- any implications for how much headroom on your customer bill, you have in new Jersey after this divestiture. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Sophie, in the spirit of you, -- never say never, I wouldn't want to say the word never, but we are not marketing those nuclear plants. We have every intention and expectation of holding on to them and marketing the non-nuclear assets to source and fossil fleets. Plus, I just think that the candidate pool for purchasing is vastly, vastly larger for the fossil assets, right. So again at the risk never say never, but I think it's pretty, that would be in the conjecture and most that is not time well spent. And because of that -- what's your second question?
Unidentified Analyst:
Is there, are there any implications on the bill headroom in New Jersey?
Ralph Izzo:
No. I would think that, no I mean power prices in the forward market as we've said are down from where they were just two years ago and that continues to be pressure on forward power prices both because of the abundance of natural gas, the reduction in load and the availability of highly efficient generation, so. We match, we try to match all of our utility proposed programs to bill impact of roughly CPI, and we try to do that in a way that includes rolling integrates every 6 to 12 months. So there is no price and rate shock to the customer, and of course we are firm believers that energy efficiency can be targeted at those customers who are A, the most vulnerable or B, are most broadly providers of services to the population at large and therefore benefit the population at large by reducing their energy consumption. I do think that, that once -- this past the appointed hour, so I would be remiss notwithstanding all the news and hopefully really good and exciting news that we share with you if I didn't simply say everyone on the call that I hope you and your families and friends are experiencing good health and have not been affected by this horrible challenge that we have in a form of COVID-19 and to the extent that any of you have friends or family who have been front-line health workers, we have PSEG truly express our thanks to you and to them indirectly. I'm pleased, I mean we convey that to them. We had just an amazing terrific effort by our employees, we've not been untouched by COVID-19, our infection rates are about half of the general population, our employees are managing to work safe and just produced some phenomenal cost savings, yielding a very strong quarter, I know we had some one-time stuff. But even if you back that one-time stuff out, I think we had a terrific quarter. And Dan and IR are the dancing types, but hopefully you can hear our voice excitement, the genuine excitement we feel about the pursuit of the strategic alternative and what that means for the concentrated focus growth of the utility, especially a CEF that we expect to be resolved by September -- and we look forward to seeing you all in person. But until then, we'll see you at some upcoming virtual conferences over the next several weeks. Thanks, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect. And thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Christie, and I’m your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, May 4, 2020 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 o’clock PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Time on May 13, 2020. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Christie. Good morning. PSEG released first quarter 2020 earnings results earlier today. The earnings release attachments and slides detailing results are posted on PSEG’s IR website and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters we will discuss on today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as recorded in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and included in today’s earnings materials. I will now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on today’s call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta and thank you all for joining us today. Before we begin our review of this quarter’s results, let me take a moment to express my sincere condolences to anyone on the call who has been personally affected by COVID-19. I also extend my gratitude to the healthcare and emergency first responders. For these frontline hero’s in New Jersey PSEG recently donated 50,000 N95 masks and 200,000 pairs of gloves to help replenish personal protective equipment. I’ll refer to that as PPE from now on. The PSEG Foundation has also made a $2.5 million commitment to provide grants to regional food banks and health and social service organizations in our communities. PSEG’s first and foremost responsibility has always been to provide safe and reliable delivery of electric and gas service to our 3.7 million customers in New Jersey and on Long Island. As part of the New York Metropolitan area, New Jersey and Long Island have been among the hardest hit areas by COVID-19, but are showing signs of improvement. Confirmed COVID-19 incidents rates among PSEG employees remain below those of the New Jersey and Long Island general populations. Approximately 1% of our employees are currently self monitoring. So, personal availability continues to be strong and a test to the effectiveness of the safety protocols we put in place early on. This will become even more important as the summer storm season begins and access to mutual aid resources maybe limited.
Operator:
Hello?
Dan Cregg:
That confirms you?
Operator:
Yes. We can hear you now.
Dan Cregg:
Okay. I’ll go back to the beginning of my remarks prior to the technical difficulties. As Ralph mentioned, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2020 of $1.03 per share versus $1.08 per share in last year's first quarter. We are providing you with information on Slide 10, regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter, and Slide 11 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And I’ll start to review each company in more detail with PSE&G. PSE&G as shown on Slide 13 reported net income for the first quarter of 2020 of $0.87 per share, compared with $0.79 per share for the first quarter of 2019 up 10% versus last year. PSE&G results were driven by revenue growth from ongoing capital investment programs in transmission and distribution, which more than offset the impact of unfavorable winter weather on electric and gas margin. As a reminder, our gas distribution business has a weather normalization clause that moderates the impact of weather-related sales variances versus normal weather. First in transmission rate base which added $0.06 per share to first quarter net income includes approximately $0.02 per share of items that will reverse over the second and third quarters of 2020 due to timing of expenses in 2019 true-ups. Gas margin, which includes the recovery of investments made under the gas system monetization program or GSMP II, as well as higher weather-normalized gas sales margins, improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.04. Winter weather, as measured by heating degree days, was 19% warmer than normal and 19% warmer than first quarter of 2019. The negative impact of unfavorable weather on gas margin quarter-over-quarter was largely offset by the gas weather-normalization clause. However, the decline in electric sales and revenue as a result of the large difference in weather reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.02 per share. For the trailing 12-months ended March 31, weather-normalized electric and weather-normalized firm gas sales were each down by approximately 1%, led by declines in Commercial and Industrial usage. Residential sales were flat with customer growth just below 1% offset by increases in energy efficiency and solar net metering. PSE&G’s capital program remains on schedule as mentioned earlier with essential work continuing on the majority of our critical reliability in infrastructure replacement projects at our transmission and distribution facilities. PSE&G invested approximately $0.6 billion in the first quarter and is on track to meet its full year planned capital investment program of $2.7 billion. Progress continues on several important projects, including The Metuchen-Trenton-Burlington Project, which energized its second phase and the Aldene-Linden project that recently energized an upgraded circuit connecting Aldene and Linden. Both projects are on plan and on budget. Customer bill affordability remains a key consideration as we invest in the system and PSE&G remains well-positioned on this metric with its combined electric and gas bills under 3% of New Jersey media and household income as of January 1, 2020. In March, PSE&G temporarily suspended all non-safety related service shut-offs for non-payment during the COVID-19 crisis recognizing the financial hardship that many of our customers are currently experiencing. And we will be advising them of available payment assistance programs and bill management tools. And as a reminder on the electric side, we will recover our bad debt expense through the societal benefits charge, which is trued up periodically. We are reaffirming PSE&G’s net income forecast for 2020 at $1.310 billion to $1.370 billion. Now, I’ll move to Power. PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.17 and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $201 million. This compares to operating earnings of $0.29 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $304 million reported for the first quarter of 2019. Net income for the first quarter was $13 million or $0.02 per share and a pre-tax charge of $20 million to reflect a lower cost for market adjustment to oil inventory was recognized in the first quarter and excluded from our non-GAAP measures. The earnings release and Slide 18 provide you with a detailed analysis of the items having an impact on Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA relative to net income quarter-over-quarter. We’ve also provided you more detail on generation for the quarter on Slide 19. PSEG Power’s first quarter results were negatively affected by an extremely mild winter weather conditions, compared to the first quarter of 2019. A scheduled decline in PJM capacity revenue reduced non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by $0.11 per share compared to Q1 2019. The addition of ZEC revenues to first quarter results added $0.07 per share. Lower generation output for the quarter reduced comparisons by $0.01 per share and re-contracting reduced results by $0.01 per share, reflecting an approximate $1 per megawatt hour decline in the average hedge price versus the year ago quarter. The weather related decline in total gas send out to commercial and industrial customers reduced results by $0.04 per share. Higher O&M expense from an unplanned outage at Salem Unit 1 lowered results by $0.01 per share and higher interest expense lowered comparisons by $0.01 per share versus the year-ago quarter. Gross margin for the first quarter declined slightly to $30 per megawatt hour compared to $0.31 per megawatt hour in the year ago period. Power prices were weaker across PJM, New York, and New England compared to the year earlier quarter as winter temperatures were 16% higher on average versus the first quarter of 2019. PSEG Power’s average capacity prices and PJM are set to rise in the second half of 2020 and beginning on June 1, the average PJM capacity price will rise to $168 per megawatt day, up from $116 per megawatt day. And I saw New England capacity prices are scheduled to decline, but the impact on our capacity revenue will be moderated by the addition of Bridgeport Harbor 5 and its seven year capacity lock at $232 per megawatt day. Now let’s turn to Power’s operations. Total generation output declined by 6.5% to 13.2 terawatt-hours, reflecting the sale of the Keystone and Conemaugh units last fall. PSEG Power’s Combined Cycle fleet produced 5.1 terawatt-hours of output, up 16%, reflecting the addition of Bridgeport Harbor 5, which was placed into operation in June 2019. The three newest combined Cycle units Key, Cone, and Bridgeport combined to post a strong average capacity factor of 81% in the quarter. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 94.9% for the first quarter, producing 8 terawatt-hours, representing 61% of total generation. Higher output from Hope Creek and Salem Unit 2, partly offset a month-long repair outage at Salem unit 1, resulting in a 2% decrease in nuclear output for the quarter. Salem 2 entered its 24th refueling outage on April 11 and the outage has been scaled back to complete a core set of essential tasks, which is expected to reduce the duration and cost of the outage. PSEG Power continues to forecast annual output for the years 2020 through 2022 at 50 terawatt-hours to 52 terawatt-hours. For the remainder of 2020, Power has hedged approximately 95% to 100% of production at an average price of $36 per megawatt-hour. 2021, Power has hedged 55% to 60% of forecasted production at an average price of $35 per megawatt hour, and for 2022 Power has hedged 25% to 30% of forecasted output at an average price of $35 per megawatt hour. More than 70% of PSEG Power’s expected gross margin in 2020 is secured by our higher hedge position of energy output, capacity revenue set in previous auctions, the opportunity to earn a full year ZEC revenues and certain ancillary service payments such as reactive power. We are reaffirming our forecast of PSEG Powers non-GAAP operating earnings for 2020 at $345 million to $435 million and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA at $950 million to $1,050 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2020 includes pre-tax expenses of $35 million related to the purchase of New Jersey tax credits and the benefit from this program is included below EBITDA in the Income Tax expense and it combines for a net benefit for the quarter of $5 million and there were no similar transactions in Q1 of 2019. Now, let me briefly address results from PSEG Enterprise and other. For the first quarter of 2020, Enterprise and other reported a net loss of 5 million or $0.01 per share, compared to net income of $1 million flat on a per share basis in the year earlier quarter. The net loss for the first quarter reflects higher interest and tax expenses at the parent, partially offset by ongoing contributions from PSEG Long Island. For 2020, we are reaffirming that the forecast for PSEG Enterprise and other remains unchanged at a net loss of 5 million. PSEG ended the quarter with $799 million of cash on the balance sheet. In March of this year, PSEG closed on a $300 million variable rate loan due March of 2021. As of March 31, PSEG had access to 3.2 billion under its $4.2 billion credit facility with a $4 billion revolver extended by a year to March of 2024. Debt at the end of March stood at 52% of our consolidated capital and debt at PSEG Power represented 32% of its capital at the end of the quarter. During the first quarter, PSE&G issued $300 million of tenure, 2.45% secured medium-term loans and $300 billion and 30-year 3.15% secured medium-term loans. In addition, we retired $406 million 5.13% note at PSEG Power that matured in April. Also in April, PSEG closed two additional term loans totaling $500 million. For the balance of the year, we have approximately $260 million of PSE&G maturities that come due in August and a $700 million parent maturity in November. Our solid balance sheet and credit metrics keep us in a position to internally fund our 2020 to 2024 capital investment program without the need to issue directly. As Ralph mentioned earlier, we are reaffirming our forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year 2020 of $3.30 to $3.50 per share. That concludes my remarks, and now, I'll turn the call back for questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session from members of the financial community. First question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning. Congratulations on holding everything together here.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith :
Absolutely. So, I wanted to dig a little bit further on the Power and PSE&G 2020 reaffirm, when you think about the cost control that you’ve embedded, and I appreciate it's a dynamic situation, so it's hard to put your finger on it, what’s the order of magnitude that you all are contemplating and reaffirming here today, especially as it relates to the power side of the business just because, obviously – you know that is hedged largely, but not entirely? So, I’m just trying to understand the order of magnitude that you all are contemplating in your guidance here when you take out the puts and takes here against what is, obviously, moving target expectations for full-year load and average pricing?
Ralph Izzo:
So Julien, rather than give you piece parts with specific numbers attached to each piece parts, well, first of all it to hear your voice, hope you and your family are well and that you’re managing in these challenging times as well. You know some of the things that we've done as, for instance, is we recalibrated our nuclear refueling outage and I – and we took a bunch of days off. I can't give you that number because I don't think we’ve posted it on Oasis. We didn't have the original number days, and so therefore, I don’t want to give you the new number days. While O&M goes up given the work rules we have to put in place for an outage, and therefore, we only saved a modest amount of O&M by shortening the outage we increased a lot of the revenue expectations for things like ZEC payments and things of that sort by abbreviating the outage. You mentioned the hedge position and even though the hedges aren’t perfect, they were – we were about 95% hedged for this year. There’s been some fairly modest O&M reductions just in terms of support services that we’ve been enabled to capture just because of the change in work practices. So, those are the types of things over power in utility because we're only doing the essential work for customers. There has been some reduction in O&M associated with some of the appliance repair work and things of that nature that the Governors asked us to not do. And in the meantime, we’re still full speed ahead on the capital program, which as you know, gets at 90% clause recovery. So, it's been a combination of things and the team is working 24/7 to make sure that we’re constantly adjusting and Dan please feel free to add to if you could like.
Dan Cregg:
I think that’s a good summary, and you know, I also think you will see some benefit come through as well to the extent that you see a lower cost to serve on some of our hedges as well. So, to the extent that we’ve got a lower market that we can work to support some of the hedges you could see some benefits coming through there in and some of those contracts tend to lean a little bit more on the smaller side or on the residential side, so there can be some uptick there as well Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Excellent. And then, if I can quickly follow-up on the second piece here. The offshore wind arrangement, how are you thinking about coming to terms on that? And ultimately is the timing of this ultimately drawn into a broader conversation at FRR and election and thought processing the State? And do we need to see some kind of resolution from the State in order for you to feel comfortable to participate in whatever form?
Ralph Izzo:
No, that’s – thank you, Julien. Good question. Let me be more explicit than I've been in the past because Ørsted is just a terrific company and a very valuable partner, but time is our friend, so we are just – I don't mean to upset my colleagues at Ørsted if they are listening, but it is to our advantage to take every day to learn as much as we possibly can about this business and maximize the timeframe that they’ve granted us to make that decision because we started from a position of relative ignorance. So really it’s just making use of every day to be smarter and smarter about what is entailed in the developing that project. The state is absolutely committed to building that project. It would appear the federal agencies are as well. There have been well-publicized delays in different projects around the company. Ørsted themselves have talked about some of the delays in getting through the federal permits. So it's really not a question of the FRR at all. The BPU order is quite clear on what the commercial terms of that project will be – are and will be, and we just now need to understand given that very well-established topline, what does the middle of the income statement look like in terms of their ongoing operational costs, and then, make a decision sometime in the fall. So, it's just the – I’m going to repeat myself, time is our friend in terms of collecting more and more information and getting smarter and smarter.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got you, excellent. And then no update on timeline for FRR resolution as far as you’re concerned?
Ralph Izzo:
and I don't mean to sound presumptuous by putting the educated is that it's probably at the earliest end of year more likely spilling into Q1 of next year. Remember, the State really doesn't have to worry about paying double for capacity now that the nuclear units are covered or at least for the foreseeable future until off-shore wind comes online and that's not going to happen until 2024, so you have to worry about the 2021 auction before you have to kick in your FRR so as to avoid that duplicate payment for capacity.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. Thank you all very much. All the best. Stay safe.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Constantine with Guggenheim Partners.
Constantine Lednev:
Hi, good morning, guys. Sure has a jump so I'm taking some questions here. It’s great to hear the update on everyone staying safe and work going on. You mentioned the kind of 5% to 7% load impact that you're seeing. And so, if we king of just look at an extended lockdown in New Jersey saying kind of full second quarter, what do that kind of mean in terms of sensitivities for EPS and understanding that there’s some offsetting dynamics kind of having only quarter of the margin on really C&I? And can you talk about kind of – you mentioned the bid on the cost efficiency levers have been applied, but what about more details on the kind of magnitude versus that sensitivity?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, Constantine, so, it's been a little challenging as Ralph referenced in his original remarks that without AMI, the granularity that we would like to have we don't have. So, we know for a fact that in the aggregate when we take a look at what reductions are, we’re in that 5% to 7% range on a weather normalized basis, and by all occasions, we’re going to see an uptick on the residential side and we’re going to see more challenges on the C&I side just knowing what's going on. So, we basically have taken a look at that kind of a trajectory and presumed that we would continue to see that through the balance of the year now. It's going to have varied effects as you go through the year. you’re going to have different seasonality; you’re going to have different effects moving through the year, but that’s what we used to try to gauge what things would look like and if you take a look at both from a power and a utility business combined and you try to take a look at what that's going to do from an EPS perspective. It ranges in the order of about $0.01 a month from the standpoint of impact from an enterprise earnings perspective through the – the summer periods. And then, when you get into the fall into more of a shoulder period, you could see a little bit less of an impact just because you've got a different dynamic with respect to what overall loads are. So, that’s a – an admittedly rough estimate given the data that we do have and how we’ve been able to forecast and as we go through time, we’ll continue to get more data and more data on a customer segment perspective and be able to refine that, but that’s the order of magnitude that we’ve seen from the standpoint of losses to-date and where we think it may end up coming out, that’s a gross margin number. So, we’re going to take that, and then, you would tax affect that and then you’re going to work your way through on the cost side, and you know, there are some basic things that are fairly obvious if you think about the cost structure of the business and things like travel. You could think about that we’re going to strip some of the outages down too. So, some work may be more expensive to do, but there will be some of it that will not be done during this period which will cost some saving. So, we will continue to manage this as we go through the balance of the year and I think from taking all this and looking at it that's what gives us confidence to be able to reaffirm guidance.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay that makes sense, kind of offsetting on both sides. Another one kind of – this maybe one for Ralph, you talked about both NJBPU and kind of engaging stakeholders on ROE, is there any kind of advancements in what sort of conversation there can be had at this stage?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Constantine. I’d echo what I had mentioned a moment ago. Glad to hear your voice and hope you and your family are well in addition. So, I don't want to go into details what the conversations with the BPU on transmission ROE, but suffice to say that we still are in conversation and the motivation for that really is the fact that the New Jersey economy is in a tough state right now and I think the BPU realizes that this is a great opportunity for possibly refunding to customers many, many dollars as a result of a reduction in our allowed ROE and rather enter into a protracted litigated case at FERC, which would take many years to have that rate relief occur, now is a good time to do it, and we would agree with. Having said that, we’ve been very clear with the BPU as to what we think is a fair return and we’re not going to settle on something unless it matches what we think is a fair return, and I'm sure they feel same way. So, the good news is, we are still in conversation and we both recognize that there could be a win-win if we can narrow the gap that continues to just between us. So, I’m sorry for not giving you a specific number or a answer right now, Constantine, but just the nature of that dialogue doesn't allow me to do that, but all parties realize that it would be a great benefit to many folks to reach resolution, and if we can, and then, we – so be it and it will be decided elsewhere. We had technical difficulties before; I’m hoping that we didn’t just go silent again.
Operator:
No.
Constantine Lednev:
No, sorry about that. I just happened to be on mute. Just one real quick one for Dan, are there any kind of volume metric risk remaining with the hedges on tower for the remaining of the year or is that kind of pretty hedged out?
Dan Cregg:
There’s volume metric aspects on some of our hedges. There's volume metric aspects on some of our generation as well and that's how I would have you think about it, Constantine. So, the nuclear units are going to run like nuclear units, and then, our gas units with pretty significant capacity factors will still follow load. And similarly, we will have some blockages that will be on it. We will have some good deals that will be on them that makes up the aggregate of our hedge portfolio. So, I think you’ve got the ability for some of your generation to flex based upon changes in load and I think you’ve got some your hedges that will do the same. And so, there will not be an absolute lockstep, but I think that those hedges will work well for the fleet that we have and you’ll see some of them working in approximate tandem.
Constantine Lednev:
Perfect. Thanks for that guys. Stay safe out there.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Constantine.
Operator:
Your next question is from Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Mr. Byrd, your line is open.
Carlotta Chan :
Christie, let’s go to the next question.
Operator:
Yes. Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.
Steve Fleishman:
Yes, hi. Good morning. Hopefully you can hear me?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, we can, yes. We can hear you.
Steve Fleishman:
I’ve seen you nearly as much as – hi – I think I’ve seen you, Ralph, nearly as much as my family on TV for the last few weeks, so it’s been nice. Good to see your face. So, a couple of things, just on the, you know, guidance for 2020, you mentioned that you just continued strong operations and cost control, is that just kind of say that there are pressures and you don’t have as much cushion as normal or what are you trying to kind of emphasize there?
Ralph Izzo:
Nothing more than what we said there, Steve. And so, the kind of flexibility you have is outage duration and that helps both in terms of the costs associated with the outage, as well as the opportunity for margin acquisition. And the utility is type of thing that you have is if you do less O&M and more capital, you can both benefit from the clause recovery associated with the capital and benefit from the reduced O&M. In eliminating some of the non-essential services there are some reduction in over time. So it’s really a combination of things like that. There’s not one specific item. By the way that TV spot that you saw was recorded by my wife on an iPhone, so we save money there, if you’re curious. We almost incurred some expense with the divorce attorney, but that was okay, we managed with that. So, you know, I know that everybody wants to – okay, so what are we doing to get $0.05; what are we doing to get $0.03, but it just doesn’t work that way. It’s really a never ending focus on a bunch of small things that add up. In terms of the guidance range, as Dan said, you know, we are going to be swimming against about a $0.01 a share if this current trend in demand reduction continues with a lesser amount after the summer. So, that’s the bogey that we're fighting against. So obviously, when we give a $0.20 range, we have enough flexibility in there with that kind of a headwind with some of the offsets to reaffirm.
Steve Fleishman :
Great. And then, just on the New Jersey capital program outside of the base rate case, juts based on the schedules we have now, how are feeling good about, you know, some meaningful amount of those investments starting to be made or being made in 2021?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, I feel good about it. Let me tell you why because that is something you’ve heard me say before, despite phenomenally good management on the part of Governor Murphy, New Jersey has been dealt a really tough hand here. You know we are a densely populated state, and therefore, as a result of that population density, we are being hit harder than no other state other than New York in terms of COVID-19 that is having huge social impact, self impact, as well as economic impact, and we are, as a company, probably best positioned to help in regard to those economic impacts, right. The energy efficiency filing that we have made has huge benefits in terms of up to 5,000 jobs that could be created as a result of that and the bill reductions for customers and shareholder benefits. I mean, that – there is nothing that you can point to that has that kind of multiple benefits. In the past, I’m not saying this will be repeated now, but in the past, in 2008, when we had economic downturn, it was a desire on the part of the BPU to accelerate some of the aging infrastructure replacement as a form of economic stimulus. We’ll certainly remind them of that and we do a bandwidth to do more I mean electric distribution side than we’re doing now, which is useful stuff to do while recognizing some of the economic impacts that we’re experiencing as a state. So, I do think the that we are generally viewed as someone that can help with the economic recovery, and right now, as you well know, we – we’re expecting to resolve the energy efficiency component by September this year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay, great. Thank you. Be well.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you too.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks Steve.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning, guys, and it’s good to hear from you.
Ralph Izzo:
Same, John.
Jonathan Arnold:
A quick one on just – am I hearing you right, Ralph, I think what you’re saying is that pretty much all of the capital work you're currently doing is continuing under an essential header, but it’s really more, you know, O&M type activities that your having to curtail, is that correct? Or is that – are there some sort of elements to the capital program that are also going to need to catch up a little bit when things start to normalize?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, that’s correct, Jonathan. You heard me correctly.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, that was one. And then, you mentioned, Ralph, in your prepared remarks that you have some concerns about mutual aid and how that will, you know, work as we get rather into the year and storm season, can – could you maybe talk about some of the things you're doing or thinking about as you try to address that?
Ralph Izzo:
First of all, I’m surprised if you can tell if those are prepared remarks. I thought you realized that I just – yes, that was – so we had a little bit of a taste of this, Jonathan, about two or so weeks ago. We had a significant storm roll through, but it was high winds and lots of rain, but it happened before the tree is all leafed out. So we dodged a bit of a bullet, but normally what you do when you see a storm coming is you arrange for contractors and all the utilities will not likely to be affected because they’re not in the path of the storm to stage our workforce. And it might be just getting them ready to leave from where they are or might actually get them to New Jersey and have them in place. We were able to secure about 40% of what we asked for, and it was a combination of – candidly, utility is not willing to risk their own employees in terms of their exposure to jobs and travel limitations put on some of the contractors. So, if we have that experience when the trees all have leaves on them and the wind blows then we will have to communicate extensively with customers about some of the likely delays that they will experience in being restored.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, great. So, you're really pointing out the issue as opposed to that being, you know, way of addressing here at this point.
Ralph Izzo :
Right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thanks answer that really helps, I think, Ralph. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo :
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JP Morgan.
Jeremy Tonet:
Good morning, thanks for having me.
Ralph Izzo:
You’re welcome Jeremy.
Jeremy Tonet:
Just want to go back to FRR if I could, how do you see the near-term cost dynamics of an FRR versus the PJM capacity auction influencing the BPU, the valuation of the long-term issue of double payment for capacity?
Ralph Izzo:
So there’s multiple factors that we're exploring with the BPU as they are exploring with many other people. I didn't mean to suggest that we’re the only folks that they are talking that’s not the case. They have a formal proceeding that they've announced. One possibility is that you could be seeing a, you know, different price in New Jersey than you would see in PJM writ large, but the fact that you only need to secure a 15% or 16% reserve margin as opposed to the larger reserve margin that's in the broader PJM could allow the total amount of money that is paid by customers to be less likely whether you have a case where you pay a higher price in New Jersey, but you buy less of it. So, the unit cost is more, but the number of units is less, so the product of the two terms got to be less expensive for the state. If you were to just look at offshore wind aspirations of the state and then take a look at what typical Eastern Mac capacity prices have been and then you factor in what the capacity value of the offshore wind might be granted by PJM, you quickly get to eight if not nine figures in just a few years in terms of extra payments on the part of New Jersey customers for not having offshore wind be able to clear the auction. So, you have those two potential savings like one savings is the avoidance of paying twice, that’s the eight to nine figures offshore wind capacity that won’t be granted a recognition on the part of PJM and would not be able to clear auction at the ACRs that have been proposed. And the second is just the mere fact that by virtue of New Jersey having to secure only a 15% or 16% reserve margin, it could save there as well. So, you have this double benefit that the state could realize if it designs the FRR in a competitive way that recognizes the carbon free resources that it is committed to securing.
Jeremy Tonet:
Great, that’s really helpful. Thank you for that. And just one more if I could, if you have any thoughts you could share when you think settlement discussions could begin on the CEF proceeding?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, so we've had good conversations with the board staff. They know what's important to us and we’ve been very clear. It's been to be up in different energy efficiency investments. You know, we hoped that the Board would incentivize us, if I may have just created a verb, but the least we should be indifferent so whether we invest in a circuit or meter or energy efficiency and that's worked in states. We need to have fixed cost recovery because the profitability of energy efficiency is much smaller than the fixed cost lost, if you avoid a kilowatt hour sale, and that's been recognized by other leading states. And last but not least, we want to make sure that the state recognize the importance of having the useful life of the asset be matched up with the depreciable life of the asset, which is just sort of good ratemaking practice that we apply to our $30 billion in rate base throughout the system. So, I think those are the three critical items. Then, you have much more latitude about how much of this do you want to do? And we’ve sized the program to achieve the targets of the Clean Energy Act. We could do more, but as the state doesn't want to achieve the targets of the Clean Energy Act or wants to phase that in more slowly, it may ask us to do less. I am encouraged by the fact that the state gave us $110 million bridge in just these next six months, while we wait to resolve the settlement discussions, and you know, if you look at a $110 million over six months and you compare it to the $40 million year we’ve been averaging, that’s certainly a nice step in the right direction. I’m not trying to signal anything with that other than obviously growing enthusiasm for energy efficiency. So, we’ll know more by September and that's a lot sooner than you may think. Hope that helps, Jeremy. I note once again in confidential settlement discussions, I have to just be careful about how much detail I share because I don’t think that’s fair to the other party.
Jeremy Tonet:
That does help. Appreciate the color there. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Paul, hope you’re well.
Paul Patterson:
I’m managing, thank you. So, just – you know just as a follow-up on the FRR discussion, it sounds like that given everything you’re saying and what the commission and what have you’re saying, it's very likely that they probably will go for the FRR option, is that they way we should be thinking?
Ralph Izzo:
You know look, they are the final decider of that, but I think that that is the logical thing for the state to do why New Jersey would want to take twice for capacity in what is obviously an extremely ambitious carbon free energy agenda would boggle my mind. You know, new solar and offshore wind are not going to clear the auction at these ACRs.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
So, you know, I would think that the state would be greatly incented to do an FRR?
Paul Patterson:
Okay, that makes sense. And so, I guess what I was also wondering so to follow-up on, you mentioned the stimulus benefit and of infrastructure development that you guys have been – that you guys have produced in the past and you also mentioned the ROE transmission discussion that you’re having with the commission, so I’m sort of wondering, you know, how should we think about, I think probably maybe you would disagree, there probably is going to be substantial budget pressure even with Federal assistance in New Jersey, how should we think about sort of just the potential financial problems that the state is going to be facing and weighing the two issues that you mentioned, which is one perhaps not wanting to see big rate impacts and then two wanting to probably see economic activity stimulated. You follow what I’m saying, how should we …?
Ralph Izzo:
I do. I mean, so if it were me and I were writing the script, which I don’t, but certainly what we’re telling policy makers is that an adjustment to transmission ROE to a reasonable level would still be a very attractive annual give back of rates to customers. Significant investments in energy efficiency also puts more money into customer’s pockets by a virtual of bill reductions. Infrastructure investments helps us to employee contractors and other folks and in doing work that gets paid back over 40 and 60 years because that’s how long these assets last. So, you have, you know both expense savings through transmission ROE reset and energy efficiency as well as payroll increases through energy efficiency and payroll increases through infrastructure investment. The latter of which gets paid over many decades because that is the life of the asset. So, all that if done properly, results in net reductions in bills and creations of thousands of jobs and that's not alchemy, that's just the hard reality and benefits associated with energy efficiency rate relief and infrastructure investment. So, I would do that in a heartbeat. And we are having those kind of conversations I, you know, that that will be up to the BPU, though to decide.
Paul Patterson:
Awesome, thanks so much. I really appreciate it. Hang in there.
Ralph Izzo:
Take care, Pau. So, I think we're at the appointed hour. I just want to conclude with three thoughts for you. I know it's a bit of a cliché at this point, but I must tell you, I couldn't be more proud of our employees, whether it's managing a nuclear outage safely with de minimis impact on health and safety, and being able to get the work done on time or the storm response to what I mentioned before in terms of that rain event. Our call center stats are even better than they were, we've closed the books on time, our communications personnel are working from home by keeping our employees apprised of what's going on, and a shout out as Steve Fleishman mentioned to my wife for her superior cameraman skills and getting our commercial on the air. And by the way folks are not working five days a week anymore. They are 24/7 during this, and somehow managing to get all of this done. So, I couldn't be more proud of them. And I really want to thank the policymakers and decision makers at the BPU and in New Jersey government. They have recognized the essential nature of the work we've done. They've allowed us to keep our capital work on track with the right social distancing, and with the right precautions. And we've taken that trust that they've given us quite seriously. And our and our exposure rates are lower than the population at large despite the fact that about half of our employees are out there in the field doing work on a regular basis and the BPU working remotely as kept their procedural schedules on track not only now do we have procedural schedules for all of CES, not only for energy efficiency, but for AMI, and for electric vehicles and battery storage, but they've also taken on the challenge of resolving an FRR. And they've engaged us in an ROE discussion for transmission. So folks at the state government are just doing tremendous things in terms of meeting these challenges that we all feel personally, while at the same time, keeping the trains running on time and adding a few trains to the schedule. So, despite these tough times, I'm just in awe of what people are doing everywhere, in terms of rising to the challenge, and to all of you on the call, if you have friends or family members who are in health care services or providing those services to the rest of the population, please express our thanks to them on our behalf and our respect and admiration for all that they are doing. So, we'll see some of you virtually I'm told in various meetings and conferences and we'll Zoom or WebEx or do whatever works and then hope to see you in person in the not a very distant future. Thank you. Be well and stay safe. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Tiffany, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Wednesday February 26, 2020 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 o’ clock PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Time on March 5th, 2020. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Tiffany. Good morning. PSEG released its fourth quarter and full year 2019 earnings results earlier today. The earnings release attachments and slides detailing results by company are posted on the IR website and our 10-K will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters we will discuss on today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as recorded in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and included in today’s earnings materials. I will now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on today’s call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta and good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us on the call today. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.64 per share, that’s an increase of 14% versus non-GAAP results of $0.56 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year were $3.28 per share, which are 5% higher than 2018’s non-GAAP results of $3.12 per share. We achieved solid operating and financial results in 2019, which marked the 15th consecutive year that PSEG delivered results within or above our original earnings guidance. Our GAAP results for 2019 of $3.33 per share, compared to net income of $2.83 per share for 2018 and reflected higher earnings due to several factors. These included, the conclusion of PSE&G’s 2018 distribution rate review, excuse me, a partial year of Zero Emissions Certificates or ZECs, as I’ll refer to them later on. Mark-to-Market gains and Nuclear Decommissioning Trust fund gains compared to losses in 2018 and higher pension credits from benefit plan changes in 2019. Net income for 2019 also included a loss recorded on the sale of PSEG Power’s ownership interest in the coal-fired Keystone and Conemaugh units in Pennsylvania that closed in the third quarter. Details on the results for the quarter and the full year can be found on Slides 6 and 7.
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph and good morning, everybody. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $0.64 per share versus $0.56 per share for the fourth quarter of 2018. Our earnings in the quarter brought non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $3.28 per share, just 5% higher than 2018’s non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.12 per share. And on Slide 6, we provide you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. We also provide you with information on Slide 12, regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. And Slides 13 and 15 contain waterfall charts that take you through the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major businesses. I’ll now review the company in detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $0.54 per share, compared with $0.47 per share for the fourth quarter of 2018. Full year 2019 net income was $1.250 billion or $2.46 per share, an improvement of over 17% compared with net income of $1.67 billion or $2.10 per share in 2018. As shown on Slide 17, PSE&G’s net income in the fourth quarter increased as a result of expanded investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure and distribution rate relief for the full quarter as new rates were put into effect on November 1st of 2018. Growth in PSE&G’s investment and transmission improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.04 per share. Gas margin improved by $0.02 per share as a result of rate relief and recovery of investment in gas distributions made under the gas system monetization program. Electric margin was flat in the quarter as one month of incremental rate relief versus 2018’s fourth quarter was offset by lower weather normalized volume and demand. Operating and maintenance expense improved by $0.02 per share compared with the prior quarter, reflecting lower tree trimming and preventative maintenance work. And in addition, retiree medical plan benefit changes implemented in 2019 at a $0.03 per share positive impact on net income compared for the year earlier quarter. These positives were partially offset by a $0.01 per share of higher depreciation expense on higher plant balances. A $0.01 of higher interest expense on higher debt outstanding and higher taxes and other items that were $0.02 on favorable compared to a year earlier quarter. For the full year, weather normalized residential electric sales were 0.2% lower, and weather normalized residential gas sales declined by 1.8%. Total electric and gas customers for the full year increased by 0.9% and point 0.6%, respectively. Last October, PSE&G updated its transmission formula rate filing for 2020 to implement a rate increase after having completed the return of excess deferred tax benefits in 2019. In 2019, PSE&G’s formula rate filing included the flow back to customers of the tax benefits related to accumulated deferred income taxes on an accelerated basis in a single year, which had the effect of lowering the annual revenue requirements and transmission revenue for 2019 after reflecting system investments. PSE&G’s investment of over $2.7 billion in its transmission and distribution infrastructure in 2019 resulted in 6% growth in rate base to over $20 billion. And of this amount, PSE&G’s investment in transmission represents 45% or just over $9 billion of the company’s consolidated rate base at the end of 2019. PSE&G’s net income for 2020 is forecasted at $1.310 billion to $1.370 billion. Now let’s turn to Power. PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago. The results for the quarter brought Power’s full year non-GAAP operating earnings to $409 million or $0.81 per share, compared to 2018’s non-GAAP operating earnings of $502 million or $0.99 per share. Power’s non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and the year amounted to $198 million and $1.035 billion, respectively. This compares with non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2018 of $176 million and for the full year of $1.059 billion. The earnings release as well as slides 13 and 15 provide you with detailed analysis of Power’s operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and cost. Power reported net income that increased by $0.39 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings that declined by $0.01 per share, compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, as shown on Slide 23. A scheduled decline in capacity prices in PJM and ISO-New England in the second half of 2019 reduced fourth quarter non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by $0.11 per share. Lower generation output for the quarter also reduced comparisons by $0.02 per share. The benefits of a full quarter of ZEC revenues of $0.06 per share, and lower costs to serve of $0.05 cents per share were partly offset by a $0.03 per share decline from recontracting at lower market prices. Gas operations were flat as lower commodity prices pressured margins and limited off-system sales. The decline in our O&M expense improved comparisons by $0.03 per share, reflecting savings from the Keystone and Conemaugh’s sale and lower fall 2019 fossil outage expense that more than offset higher costs related to the Hope Creek refueling outage and Bridgeport Harbor 5 in-service as of mid-year 2019. Higher interest and depreciation expenses were offset by savings from retiring medical plan benefit changes that were implemented in 2019. And lower taxes improved non-GAAP operating earnings by a $0.01 over the prior year’s fourth quarter. Gross Margin in the fourth quarter stabilized at $31 per megawatt hour from the same level in 2018’s fourth quarter as a scheduled decline in capacity prices that began on June 1st in PJM and ISO-New England was largely offset by the ZECs awarded in April. For the year, gross margin declined to $32 per megawatt hour from $33 per megawatt hour, reflecting the average decline in 2019 hedge prices for energy of approximately $3 per megawatt hour. Now let’s start the Power’s operations. We’ve provided you with detail on generation for the quarter and for the year on Slides 24 and 25. Output from Power’s generating facilities in the fourth quarter declined by 6.2% from last year, primarily reflecting the sale at the end of the third quarter of the Keystone and Conemaugh coal-fired generating units, as well as an extended refueling outage at Hope Creek. Full year 2019 output of 57 terawatt hours was at the low end of our 57 terawatt to 69 terawatt hour forecast. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 81.9% in the quarter, resulting in a full year capacity factor of 88.7% and total production of approximately 30 terawatt hours. The combined cycle fleet operated at an average capacity factor of approximately 54.8% in the quarter, resulting in a full year capacity factor of 52.2% and total production of approximately 23 terawatt hours for the year, an increase of over 20% year-over-year reflecting the addition of Bridgeport Harbor 5 and high capacity factors achieved at the other two new combined cycle units Keys and Sewaren. Coal-fired generation for the quarter and the year was significantly reduced as a result of the sale of Keystone and Conemaugh. And update of Power’s hedge position following the BGS auction in early February is provided on Slide 27. PSEG Power’s forecasting a decrease in output for both 2020 and 2021, to 50 terawatt hours to 52 terawatt hours, down 2 terawatt hours since the third quarter 2019 update, primarily reflecting weak prices and lower market demand. Following the completion of the recent Basic Generation Service or BGS auction in New Jersey, approximately 85% to 90% of production for 2020 is hedged at an average price of $37 per megawatt hour. With baseload production hedged at approximately $1 lower than the average price in 2019. For 2021, Power has hedged 45% to 50% of forecast output of 50 terawatt hours to 52 terawatt hours, at an average price of $36 per megawatt hour, and for 2022 Power has hedged 20% to 25% of forecast output of 50 terawatt hours to 52 terawatt hours at an average price of $36 per megawatt hour. The forecast for 2020 to 2022 volumes fully reflects the sale of Keystone and Conemaugh, which had produced approximately 5 terawatt hours of annual generation in prior years, the generation from the 3 new CCGTs approximately 3 terawatt hours of low generation and each year consistent with current market conditions. And the planned retirement of 383 megawatts of coal-fired generation at the Bridgeport Harbor 3 stations in June of 2021. Power’s 2020 non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA forecast that is projected to be $345 million to $435 million and $950 million to 1.50 billion, respectively. Moving on to Enterprise and other for the fourth quarter of 2019, Enterprise and other reported net income that increased by a $0.01 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings that increased by $0.02 per share compared with the fourth quarter of 2018. Net income of $2 million for the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with a net loss of $5 million or $0.01 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018. And for the full year of 2019, PSEG Enterprise and other reported a net loss of $25 million or $0.06 per share, compared with net income of $6 million or $0.01 per share for all of 2018. Enterprise and other reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2019 of $2 million bring full year results to $7 million or $0.01 per share, which compares to non-GAAP operating loss of $12 million or $0.02 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018 that brought results to $13 million or $0.03 per share for the full year of 2018. For 2020, Enterprise and others expected to produce a non-GAAP operating loss of $5 million and this guidance reflects a continued PSEG Long Island results that are more than offset by higher parent interest expense. PSEG concluded 2019 with $147 million of cash on hand, and debt representing 52% of our consolidated capital position. Power’s that was 33% of its total capital base and its yearend debt positions stood at just over 2.7 times in 2019 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. We expect internally generated cash flow will enable us to fund our current 2020 to 2024 capital program of $12 billion to $16 billion and accommodate incremental investment in previously identified opportunities without the need to issue equity, while providing the opportunity to grow our dividend. The recap regarding to non-GAAP operating earnings for 2020 of $3.30 to $3.50 per share at approximate 4% increase over 2019 with regulated operations at PSE&G approaching 80% of consolidated earnings. We also raised PSEG’s common dividend by $0.08 to the indicative annual level of $1.96 per share, a 4.3% increase over 2018. This level continues to represent about a 58% payout of consolidated earnings at the midpoint of 2020 guidance and is comfortably covered by utility-only earnings and has contributed to a 4.7% annual rate of growth in the dividend over the last five years. And with that, Tiffany, we are now ready to take some questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for the members of the financial community. your first question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi Praful.
Dan Cregg:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi. So, Ralph on the PJM capacity auction, I’m sure you’re expecting the question. Unfortunately the way FERC has lifted, it’s going to be difficult to see how states stay in it if they really want to push their renewable mandate especially like you said, offshore wind and we’ll see how the net ACR comes out from nuclear. But what is your view on that, if states were to separate or at least have their own FRR like you said, what does that mean for New Jersey? What does the process and timing take? And what does that mean for your portfolio in particular?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, so that’s a very – thanks, Praful that is a very complicated question. And so much of it is really summarized in two words, it depends. I don’t think New Jersey wants to pay twice for a capacity from carbon free sources and particularly from offshore wind. So under the current construct, which as you know, many people have filed for rehearing. But under the current construct, that would mean New Jersey would have to have either a zonal or statewide FRR which to me is suboptimal, right, because now you’re going to be solving a small problem with a rather large tool. If your aspirations are for 7,000 megawatts of offshore wind, you need to pull out 15,000 megawatts from the capacity market seems to be a bit of overkill. It also depends upon the design of the FRR. Are you taking out what is the engineering assessment of the reserve margin you need, 15%, 16%? If so, you’re leaving behind a residual market that is grotesquely oversupplied and crushing capacity prices in that market. How is price set? I mean, there’s just a ton of questions. What I feel good about is number one, we have an Energy Master Plan that says nuclear is important to 2050. So that has to be economically supported. Number two, we have fossil assets that are located close to the load centers and have deliverability advantages that will make some important factors in any capacity reliability construct that is created. So you know, candidly, we’ve already filed comments and by virtue of those comments, I think it’s for me to say that we’ve said FERC didn’t quite get this right. And it looks like – most likely outcome is folks that are not close the load centers and that are in other regions and may face a residual market that does experience some price suppression, which is the exact opposite of what FERC said they wanted to do. So everything I said after the first two words of it depends, you should take with a little bit of a very cloudy crystal ball of in terms of its ability to be precise, and I’ll end where I started, which is it depends.
Dan Cregg:
And Praful and just one just to add the – as we mentioned in the prepared remarks that we will find out a little bit more from PJM on the 18th of March with respect to the ACRs, which is part of your question as well. So that depends as well, but we’ll get a little bit more insight and we anticipate that to come out on the 18th of March.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah and you do not perform sure that the IMM numbers would suggest that our nuclear plant should we choose to participate would be certainly competitive –
Praful Mehta:
Right now. Yeah, now thanks for all that color. And obviously I do appreciate that nuclear should at least based on IMM numbers. But I guess, given all of the – it depends and uncertainty from a timing perspective, if we’re good to go ahead, do you think New Jersey can react in time to get the FRR? If that was the path forward like you said, a big tool for a smaller problem. But if that was the only path forward, what is the timing expectation you think that FERC that beat that New Jersey can get together and kind of solve the problem from an FRR perspective?
Ralph Izzo:
So remember, our capacity prices are set for 2022. So we have a little bit of time there. Depending upon whether or not FERC responds properly to the March 18th filing that Dan referenced, it’s conceivable that the next auction would take place late in Q4 of this year, and New Jersey will not have offshore wind, collecting payments until sometime in 2024. So it doesn’t start paying double until the second auction from now, because we’re still working on the 19 auction just yet for the 2024 energy years, the 2021 auction. So New Jersey has a little bit of time and in conversations with staff, we believe and we’re hearing from staff that they also believe that they may not need legislation to go forward with an FRR. Now 100% certain but I do think that there will be adequate time for New Jersey to avoid double paying for capacity 2024 it won’t be a walk in the park.
Praful Mehta:
Got it, fair enough. I’ll get back in queue guys. Lots more questions, but thank you for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you. Good morning, team.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning, Julien
Ralph Izzo:
How are you?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, excellent. So let me turn the subject to a slightly different more utility-oriented subject. The E&P talked at least a little bit about transmission returns. I’d be curious to get your latest thoughts on New Jersey specific dynamics. Obviously, you already alluded to in your prepared remarks to an ISO situation. And specifically with a New Jersey, do you think that there’s a potential to file like a 205 to get ahead of any kind of process in New Jersey? Or how do you see this playing out, if at all? Curious on your reaction there.
Ralph Izzo:
So I don’t know how to predict whether or not there’ll be a 205 at all, Julien, I mean, we’ve often talked about a 206. And there, there is a high threshold for someone who files a 206. I think we have to do a better job here quite candidly reminding people of the enormous value of our transmission investments over the years, right. If I take you back to August of 2003, when the grid was very different in its structure and how much more improved that is now from a reliability point of view, we’ve literally reduced transmission outages by 300% I believe over that period of time. Once upon a time when there was low cost fuel for generators in the West, New Jersey faced prices with that $20 basis uplift in the east. And nowadays, the nature of that low cost fuel in the West has changed from coal to gas, but it’s lower cost fuel. In the West, New Jersey doesn’t have any natural gas and basis differentials now that have been positive 20 or negative 3, there’s been a bunch of advantages associated with transmission and we still have no shortage of 90 year old transmission assets that need to be replaced. Having said that, we are not likely to file a 205 to change our ROE, because we really don’t know what the FERC rules are going to be it is pretty clear to me that FERC as professionally as possible as assumingly possible basically said, oops, maybe we need to rethink what we did here. And I believe the Chairman himself and so that they are open to potentially rehearing this case. So, a 206 filing is extremely complicated. It takes many years, just take a look at what happened in New England, take a look at what happened in the Midwest. And that’s when people knew what the methodology was going to be. So now in the absence of a known methodology with that complexity, I think it’s not particularly beneficial to our customers or to us to begin to go in and talk to semis, what those rules might be in the form of a 205 filing. So I’m proud of every dollar we spent on transmission and the customer benefits we’ve delivered and as soon as FERC get the rule straight and maybe we can have an intelligent conversation with our regulators and our customers about what is a fair return. But right now the market seems to have anticipated every bit and then some so.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Indeed. And then if I may, just to follow-up on the sort of bridging the two conversations in power and utility, obviously pressure across the market and then also potentially a slowing utility growth trajectory even on the margin. How do you think about the Power business again, strategically as you think about dividends and cash flow required back into the utility again, trying to bridge that financing conversation against both sides of this business?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, okay. So –
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
In light of the latest asset sale too.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah. So first of all that remember because of the delay in CEF combined with the 6% growth in rate base, which was part of a 17% growth in utility earnings. Yeah, we do lower the bottom end of our rate base growth to 6.5%, but I would take issue with the slowing utility growth, I think that we are very mindful of customer bills and the impact and the customer value creation associated with the type of investments we are making, right? We’re not here to just grow the rate base, we’re here to reward shareholders by doing better things for customers. And so that’s 6.5% to 8%, I would still say is not only robust, but at the risk of being a little bit. But it’s real. So let me just leave it at that since that is describing it, and so 6.5% of programs that and things that we know and 8% is if we get some part of CEF and with the BPU saying, please bring in an AMI or modify your AMI proposal, I think it’s safe to assume that some part of CEF both the EE and AMI will be approved. Now, in terms of Power to your – to the heart of your question, I just, sorry, Julien but I just want to take issue with some of the assumptions behind the question. You know, we’re making progress. We’ve sold Keystone and Conemaugh because that made sense. We’re selling Yards Creek because that makes sense. Right now we’re not selling best line, because it seems that we can get more value out of it than the market was willing to pay for it. And utilities can be almost 80% of our earnings, this year it was 90% of our capital deployed in that direction in the next five years. So the cash flow from Power is an attractive way to fund utility operations. The debt capacity of Power is an attractive way for us to fund the equity component of the utility and we’ll keep doing that. But as people come forward and say, we can make better use of that asset fill in the blank if what that asset is, then, we’re more than happy to have a conversation and those conversations take place all the time. And sometimes they’re fruitful and other times we realize people are just trying to say something that’s quite valuable at a discount price and we’re not going to let them do that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right, thank you guys.
Dan Cregg:
And I think, Julien, you know, the only other thing to add really is, if you think about it, we have talked for a long time about a growing base of rate base is going to trend towards the potential for a lower growth rate off of that because of the higher base. And that’s a little bit about what you see from the standpoint of the range that we have put out. In addition to the fact, if you think about some of the clauses that are in place related to GSMP, related to Energy Strong of five-year run rates, which run through 2023. The five-year plan that we talk about now runs through 2024. So remember, the low end of the range is what we know as a person is moving forward. And so a fall off one year within our five-year forecast from the standpoint of what is approved. And we’ve also talked about there’s a lot of gas pipe, cast iron pipe that’s out there that has a longer run rate from the standpoint of being able to move through all that to eliminate all the methane leaks that come from that. So I think some consistency with that that’s not approved as yet into 2024 is approved through 2023. So you see some drop off on the lower end of that range for that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Vertical Research.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi guys.
Dan Cregg:
Hi, Jonathan.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Jonathan. Good to hear from you.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you. Likewise. Just a quick on the CapEx updated slide. I just was curious, in 2023 there’s obviously a big increase in the orange segment, the electric distribution is. Can you just remind us as what in that, is the AMI in there or is that sort of still up in the green hashed out ZECs?
Dan Cregg:
No, Jonathan, I think there’s a maybe two things that you can think about a little bit from that perspective. One is the fact that it and I just referenced Energy Strong and GSMT and there’s usually some of what we called stipulated base within the overall spend that is there and that spend can tend to lag a little bit across the five-year period of the clauses that we have. So to the extent that the stipulated base comes through, towards the end of those programs, you may see some of that come through. And usually there’s a little bit of capital that have been – capital add or as we move towards the rate case here just based upon ultimately pulling capital together. So those are the two things that would come to mind related to –
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. As I look, the orange and blue that’s 23 particularly had really, really increased the law versus what he was showing us just recently.
Ralph Izzo:
An AMI is above in the crosshatch reason, Jonathan for this month.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, so that’s not what’s driving it. And then just to generally when I try to design the numbers underlying with slide was that, you know, a slight rule. But it seems that you’re spending through like the 2023 is probably out $0.5 billion, maybe a little more and, but the rate base is more or less pending up in the same place in the same place. Like on base with that observation or –
Ralph Izzo:
With respect to – I’m not quite sure, I fully follow this question.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just as you look at what your slide implies in terms of 2023 kind of timeframe, rebase. You know, although you’ve had all this moving around on the CapEx, it looks like it adds up in more or less the same place, I just want to make sure I’m right about that.
Dan Cregg:
2023 ends up in the same place as well.
Jonathan Arnold:
It was before.
Ralph Izzo:
We’ll have that comparison.
Jonathan Arnold:
You’re saying that as compared to –
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I mean – let me rephrase, how your 2023 vintage type of rate base forecast changed very much in aggregate. Once you put all this together.
Dan Cregg:
I think from the lower end of the range, I would say now, and what you’re seeing on the top end of the range basically is inclusive of both the CEF potential as well as the IIT potential. So we can we can pull our slide rules together and kind of look through what’s there.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay –
Dan Cregg:
You’re basically looking at what was a 7% to 8% increase off of ‘19 versus a 6.5% at the lower end off of ‘20. And you’re seeing a 6% increase year-over-year. So net-net, that just becomes math.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And the destination does seem to be kind of not that different –
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I think that’s fair, Jon. I don’t think it’s that different –
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay.
Dan Cregg:
And I think the dependency of CEF is a part of that, that’s been – what’s been the biggest part of our range and remains that way, because we are still in progress with respect to those filings.
Jonathan Arnold:
Perfect. And then just one other thing. What was the goodwill impairment at Power that you took in the quarter?
Dan Cregg:
Oh, Jonathan that was from any years ago, when we acquired a location in New York which ultimately became the Bethlehem Energy Center and we built that. So I’m going to guess a couple of years to build that it might have been in the 2001-2002 timeframe, something like that. We acquired a site of the Albany Steam station from Niagara Mohawk. And at the time of that acquisition, there was some goodwill that came on the books and that goes through an annual impairment test. And that was impaired as we went through this year. It was a fairly modest amount, but ultimately, it was just that accounting test as –
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. But it wasn’t sort of a not one of your core asset?
Dan Cregg:
Yeah, non-cash and relatively small math.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thank you.
Dan Cregg:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys. Just a quick question on the transmission CapEx embedded in the five-year outlook. I’m just curious, how much clarity do you have at this point in time on 21 and 22 transmission CapEx levels?
Dan Cregg:
I would answer generally is a very high degree. If you think about a lot of those projects, they end up being multiyear projects. And so a lot of that spend is not awaiting approval in those years. It’s more related to spend on projects that have a longer-term runway.
Michael Lapides:
Okay, and the only reason why I asked that question is historically, if you go back over time, when y’all put out a five-year forecast of transmission spend, what the actual spend in years three through five were versus what the forecasts were a couple of years earlier turned out to be vastly different numbers. I’m just curious before looking at something where there could be a significant uptick relative to what we’re seeing on Slide 19 in terms of expected transmission spend, especially since the rollover seems to be occurring really next year in ’21, normally it’s kind of years three through five when you guys have forecast that out.
Ralph Izzo:
So, Mike, I mean, I think you could – rest assured that we’re putting out there the best of our knowledge right now. We have said in the past that some of the larger projects, which tended to make the future a little bit lumpier so to speak as new projects were approved. Those large projects are not in the forecast. We don’t envision any, I mean, we never say never depending on what PJM does with the RTEP. Much of the transmission improvements now our end of life projects and 69 kV upgrade projects. So the Susquehanna-Roseland type projects, the Northeast Corridor projects, which could take something that was at x and make it much bigger than x as it gets approved are not likely to show up in the near-term.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one follow-on, I just want to make sure, can you remind me what happens now on the AMI process? Is that spin that’s approved? Is that spin that’s part of the ongoing dockets on the CEF that needs to get approved? And what I, you know, and if it’s a separate part of that, when does that kind of roll in? Is that just part of the energy cloud docket?
Ralph Izzo:
Yep. So the BPU lifted the moratorium said okay, based upon some work that was done at brought from electric and independent consultant for this makes sense, we should do this statewide. So they put forth a procedural schedule, which would – if it were fully litigated in its outcome, based on our experience that would wrap up sometime in Q1 of next year. And I said to utilities, okay, please submit your filing, you could do it under the rubric of the infrastructure improvement program, which you may recall was passed in December of 18th. Since we already have a filing in, we don’t need to write a new filing. So we’re going to simply take the AMI component of our CEF, the energy cloud components, and make sure it doesn’t need to be tweaked in any way and pilot under the infrastructure improvement clause recovery mechanism. So I would think I would hope that we’d have a very strong opportunity to come to a negotiated settlement on that since everybody recognizes the value of AMI and since the recovery mechanism in the IIT is pretty well documented and has been used extensively. So maybe this is something we can actually get done this year. But we’ll see.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And last question. Can you remind me on energy efficiency spin that PSE&G. How was that treated from an earnings perspective?
Ralph Izzo:
Right base rate of return. And we’ve had a mechanism in all of our prior programs which continues in this case, it will recover, we have the opportunity to recover the lost revenue through an administrative fee that is set in a way that allows us to run the programs and have the opportunity if we run them efficiently to recover that as that lost revenue –
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you. Much appreciated, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning. How’re you doing?
Dan Cregg:
Good.
Ralph Izzo:
Paul, how are you?
Paul Patterson:
Just really quickly, is there any reason to think that I mean, that there be a significant difference between the PJM’s ACR values versus the IMMs?
Ralph Izzo:
There’s nothing that jumps out at us. Paul, they don’t always agree as you know on either policy or other analyses, but there’s nothing that jumps out of this at this moment right now.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to the FRR, if that’s the route that’s taken, how should we think about the amount of capacity that New Jersey would be procuring, I guess. And, you know, how it would be selected, I guess?
Ralph Izzo:
That’s really to be determined that. We would want to work with the state to make sure that reliability concerns are met with that the state doesn’t oversupply itself and therefore pay more people than it needs to, but that all needs to be determined.
Dan Cregg:
I guess they would provide information to PJM to ensure that they have actually met the requirements that they need to meet. So you can, I think you can think about the concept of needing to meet the reliability is being consistent with PJM from the standpoint of what kind of a credit you would give two particular types of units like a solar unit wouldn’t get a megawatt for megawatts credit, because it’s not the dispatchable that but I think that the details are to be determined.
Paul Patterson:
So it will basically one would normally think that it would be basically the PJM rules for capacity and what have you, and what their – what the goal is for reserve margin for PJM? Is that how we should probably think about it or –
Ralph Izzo:
That’s the way I think about it, Paul, because, you know, clearly, you want to avoid the free rider case, because New Jersey is not going to sever its interconnections to the rest of PJM. And if and we’re not suggesting this, but a New Jersey designed an FRR, that created greater opportunities for reliability concerns in New Jersey to be backstopped by the rest of PJM. But the New Jersey’s to pay for it. That does not seem to be fair. But yes, I mean, I think that we all know that PJM right now has reserved margins that exceed its stated requirements. And presumably, if New Jersey just follow the PJM FRR requirements, that would be more akin to what they’ve traditionally said in the 16% range, not in the 20% plus range and that’s why I think there ought to be concerned about the residual markets.
Paul Patterson:
Absolutely. Okay. Thanks so much.
Carlotta Chan:
Tiffany, we’ll take a final question.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Constantine Lednev:
Hi morning. It’s actually Constantine here for Shah.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Constantine.
Dan Cregg:
Hi, Constantine.
Constantine Lednev:
Just a quick on what kind of slipping from distribution to transmission to generation move fairly frequently. But just high level when we’re thinking about kind of the clean energy future programs and advanced metering kind of energy efficiency opportunities. With kind of this update that you’re potentially thinking about, how does that kind of translate into opportunity? And I’m just thinking in aggregate that you have about 2.3 million customers and what’s kind of an efficient rate of what you think you would deploy AMI and how to think about the trajectory overall?
Ralph Izzo:
So that the annual rate, I don’t have committed to memory, Constantine, but, you know, the $2.5 billion for energy efficiency was over to six years. And we are convinced that we can deploy that. Right now we have the authority to commit $111 million over the next six months that will all get spent in six months, that we pre-committed based upon the demand for our programs, I’m pretty confident – I’m very confident of that. The AMI estimate we’ve made is about $500 million to $600 million investment and that’s for 2 million electric customers. Our gas system is a fairly extensive amount of a drive by reading capability and on electric vehicles and storage, that’s the one that really is just a question of what is the regulatory appetite and enthusiasm. The state has a 600 megawatt battery storage goal for 2021, which is clearly is not going to hit. And we’re just proposing $100 million for 30 megawatts. So as the state wants to really aggressively pursue that 2021 target, we could do a lot more. And in electric vehicles are similar question of what is the appetite we proposed the $100 million program for a variety of different charging station infrastructure deployments. So in the aggregate if you add those numbers up, it’s $3.5 billion over six years with the EE being at single biggest piece and the AMI probably being a little bit more of the backend loaded piece as it once you get the approval and then are doing the deployment.
Dan Cregg:
Yeah, the deployment is going to run a few years by the time you roll it out everything. I think a couple of unique aspects of the AMI is that, it certainly feels more like an all or none scenario, you’re not going to do every third house with AMI, it’s going to – you’re really going to roll out AMI you’re not. So it’s got a more of a binary aspect to it. And to do that full rollout is going to take, I don’t, maybe three or four years or so depending upon the pace. So it’ll take a little while to work through at all.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay, that’s very helpful. And just one quick follow-up on kind of offshore wind and the timing and kind of opportunities going forward. Kind of have you made the commitment or is there a timeline for making a commitment with Orsted and how are you positioning for any kind of future RFPs New Jersey or otherwise?
Ralph Izzo:
So we have not made the commitment yet. We do need to resolve that by the third quarter of this year, I think both we endorse that would like to see that sooner rather than later, but we don’t want to do that in the absence of being fully comfortable that our due diligence is complete. And we have retained ownership of another site that is a residual from our prior partnership with deep water win, which was acquired by Orsted, and that site has access really, I think to three states to Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey in terms of future solicitation.
Constantine Lednev:
I mean, that’s very helpful. And any way that you’re thinking about kind of partnerships and structures going forward or is it a little too early to tell?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I mean, those discussions are underway with Orsted and I’d rather not have it a lengthy public conversation about that until we resolve that without our future partner.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay, that’s very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo and Mr. Cregg, that is all the time we have for questions. Please continue with your presentation or your closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, so thank you for joining us today. And we will be on the road, the balance of next week and a few days after that. So we’d be more than happy to have to meet with folks and have further conversations. I know that there’s a little bit of a – there’s a fair amount to talk about in terms of the FERC Loper and the future of the regulatory decisions, but I must admit that we are encouraged by some of the things that have happened in New Jersey of late. You may recall the white paper on utility role and energy efficiency that came at the end of last year, the Energy Master Plan has come out, we are seeing procedural schedules for all aspects of our CEF filing and we do have an extension of $111 million for just the next six months. So I’d say that, of course, we’re never satisfied with pace, but we are directionally satisfied with the dialogue and the substance of our continued growth of the utility in ways that benefit the customers. So look forward to seeing you on the road. And thank you for joining us today.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Sylvia and I will be your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Public Service Enterprise Group's Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, October 31, 2019 and will be available for telephone replay, beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Standard Time on Friday, November 8, 2019. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Sylvia. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's third quarter 2019 earnings release attachments and slides, detailing operating results by company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA which differ from net income as reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of these financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings material. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us this morning. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2019 of $0.98 per share versus $0.95 per share in last year's third quarter. Our GAAP results for the third quarter were $0.79 per share compared with $0.81 per share in the last year's third quarter. Our results for the third quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the year-to-date to $2.64 per share compared with $2.56 per share for the first nine months of 2018. That is up 3%. Regulated operations are on track to contribute approximately 75% of total op earnings for the year, and reflect PSE&G's ongoing investment in New Jersey's energy infrastructure. Slide 6 and Slide 7, summarize the results for 2019's third quarter and year-to-date. In September, the New Jersey, Board of Public Utilities and I'll refer to them as the BPU approved PSE&G's Energy Strong II settlement authorizing continued investment in electric and gas system reliability and resiliency improvements, over the next four years. We expect to begin the first of these projects in the current quarter, which will continue the important economic engine associated with PSE&G's investments in New Jersey's energy infrastructure. We continue to eagerly pursue PSE&G's Clean Energy Future filings to bring the benefits of energy efficiency, electric vehicles, energy storage and Advanced Metering Infrastructure or AMI, at scale, to our entire customer base which is consistent with Governor Murphy's clean energy goals.
Daniel Cregg:
Excellent. Thank you, Ralph and good morning everyone. As Ralph mentioned, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2019 of $0.98 per share versus $0.95 per share in last year's third quarter. We've provided you with information on slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings, by business for the quarter and slides 12 and 14 contain waterfall charts that will take you through the net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings, by major business, for the comparable quarter and year-to-date periods versus the prior year. And now, I'll review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G as shown on Slide 11 reported net income for the third quarter of 2019 of $0.68 per share, compared with $0.54 per share for the third quarter of 2018. For the first nine months of the year, net income was $1.92 per share up 18% from $1.63 per share earned in 2018. PSE&G's third quarter results were driven by expanded investments in transmission, the settlement of the 2018 distribution rate review, and changes to our pension plan that took effect on July 1 that lowers pension expense during the second half of 2019. PSE&Gs growth in transmission investment added $0.06 per share to quarter-over-quarter net Income comparisons, including a $0.01 per share positive adjustment for an estimate of the 2019 year-end true up. Electric margin was $0.03 higher than the year ago quarter, driven by rate relief, and higher weather normalized volume. And gas margin was $0.03 higher than the prior year quarter, driven by rate relief. Weather was lower by $0.01 per share, compared to the significantly warmer summer experienced in 2018. An increase in depreciation and interest expense of a $0.01 per share each, related to PSE&G's expanded capital base, reduced net income comparisons versus the prior year's third quarter. Lower O&M expense was a $0.01 per share favorable comparison, and changes to post retirement benefit or OPEB expenses as well as the split of the pension plan associated with re-measurement of pension expense, effective July 1 at a combined $0.03 per share positive impact on net income compared to the year ago quarter. The effective tax rate for the quarter, recorded based upon the average annual effective tax rate resulted in a positive $0.01 per share impact, and this effect is just timing between quarters, it's related to the flowback of excess deferred taxes and it will reverse in the fourth quarter. The New Jersey economy continues to experience positive growth evidenced by the low state unemployment rate in the last 20 years. PSE&G reached a 2019 system peak of 9,753 megawatts this past July, compared to 2018 system peak of 9,978 megawatts.
Operator:
Your first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please proceed.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So, a couple of questions, first off, just strategically, if you could address some of the media articles out there would be curious on how you think about the fate of the Power business, and I know you - typical practice isn't to talk about media articles per se, but I'm curious how you think about it strategically, some of the assets there in the future and to any extent that you do evaluate assets, how do you think about paying down debt versus reinvesting back in the business, as evidenced by potentially some of this offshore wind investment - or at least some of the inaugural investment?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, on the fate of the Power business, Julien, I think it's going to be around a while, I'm sorry, I don't mean to flip, but it seems like electricity is still highly regarded in value and used by people and we have a really strong bleed from the point of view of proximity to load, and environmental signature. So, I think we're quite happy with its cash flow generation and its overall operational performance. We're always open to the suggestion that others may be able to extract greater value from our assets than we can, and when that's the case, they come talk to us and they suggest commercial terms that we find interesting, and that's kind of what's happened with Keystone/Conemaugh as you're well aware. But, I'm not quite sure how else to respond to your question. I mean, we've got a good fleet. They run well, they're financially sound, they're operationally sound and we're always open to commercial discussions with others about whether we can maximize the value or they can maximize the value. Dan, you can help me out here.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I mean if there is a specific article that you're referencing Julien, we're not recognizing exactly what it is, but I think Ralph has kind of laid it out.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Or perhaps, if I can frame it this way, should we be thinking about more asset sales, following on your first asset sale this quarter with respect to the - with respect to the interest in Key/Con.
Ralph Izzo:
As we've said in the past, Julien, we always are active in the market. We both look to purchase and look to engage with others, although candidly, we have made a net zero pledge that said, we will not be building or expanding our fossil fleet in any way that we can envision at this point in time. But, yeah, we're always engaged in commercial discussions with interested parties. I mean that doesn't change.
Ralph Izzo:
Okay, all right, well, let's move on then just quickly, if I could pivot to the other side. On offshore wind, if you will, how do you think about the stake versus being involved more narrowly in the transmission side of this business. It seems like potentially a little bit of a pivot in terms of where you all want to be involved. But, without the details on our side, how do you think about the risk profile of the decision to be involved, sort of outright ownership interest?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, we've looked at this industry, as best we can and estimates are that there is a potential for up to 80 gigawatts of offshore wind developable along the Eastern United States, and that's a number that comes out of I believe an EIA or NOAA, I forgot exactly which. And there has been an announced desire to develop about 35 gigawatts, so there is a potential for growth in this industry. We're not experienced in building offshore wind and we have a full year ahead of us in terms of due diligence and further analysis to do. It does appear Julien that you're right, that one cannot completely extricate themselves from the risk associated with the timing of the construction. But, it's conceivable still that one could protect oneself from the cost associated with the construction. So, we're learning as we go along how to balance that risk of the total project versus the components. But yeah, you're not going to be able to build a wire to know where and get paid for it. That is an option that isn't available to us. Maybe it's available to others, but I don't think that's the case. So, we're trying to learn in a measured way in an industry that we think is going to continue to grow, and we're pretty proud of the person that is willing to help us learn and do some of the teaching. I mean, they are a world leader in offshore wind projects, and we think we know this part of the country, fairly well from a permitting point of view, from a market point of view. From a workforce point of view and various other characteristics that matter a lot to a project like this.
Daniel Cregg:
Yeah. And I think Julien, Ralph referenced in his prepared remarks that there are skills that we can bring to this kind of a project, but obviously they are not - all of the skills that are needed for this project. So, I think that for that reason you see an interest in potentially partnering, I think certainly that's the case, if you think about the existing solicitation at Orsted 1 from a New Jersey standpoint that all of that is linked. And, as we step forward to the extent that, that things are done on a more differentiated basis, there may be more transmission specific oriented work that, that could come from.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Praful Mehta from Citi. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta:
So, maybe just a little bit more on the offshore wind side. I just wanted to understand the nature of the agreement. So, is the 25% ownership reflective of your investment into the transmission or is that a upfront payment of 25% to get the 25% and then subsequently, there will be cash outflow to invest in the transmission side. Just, if you could give us any color you can on how that option that you have right now. How will that actually play out?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I think the way to think about it Praful is that the solicitation that New Jersey did represented the project as a whole. What I mean by that - it would represent the turbines at sea, it would represent the substation at sea, the line in between and substation on land. So, all of those are an indistinguishable project that is - it was put forth to New Jersey and was awarded to Orsted. So the interest would be an interest in that project, what we still have in front of us is the advanced due diligence and the partnership structuring with respect to that type of an investment.
Praful Mehta:
So, you're paying an upfront 25% something - to get the 25%, and then as a partner you would put in money to kind of build out that project, as approved?
Daniel Cregg:
No. What we have is an opportunity over the ensuing number of months and Ralph referenced roughly a year's period to make a determination, whether or not an interest in 25% of the project is something that we would want to do. So, that's currently what we are exploring, but it would be a - the 25% is not anything immediate, it is more about what the ultimate interest in the project could become.
Praful Mehta:
And then just on the generation side, I know. Ralph, you mentioned, everything is going great, but if you just look at from a - like for example 2021 curve's perspective, your hedging for the baseload generation is down about $4 a megawatt hour versus last quarter's disclosure. Capacity factors are down and clearly markets are challenging. So, just wanted to understand, given you've been in this business for so long and these assets for so long, is there anything different that needs to be done to kind of better deal with the current market situation; like more retail or anything else that you think would help or is the current plan and this current quarter is more of a blip than anything else?
Ralph Izzo:
So, that's fair Praful. I didn't mean to suggest it's going great. I meant to - what I meant to say is that we're still in a business that is essential and has natural customer segment, namely the whole population and the particular assets that we're putting to that business are quite strong in terms of where I think, our future is headed as a collective society, let me be more specific. We tried retail, we couldn't get the scale and the profitability that we wanted; we gave it a good effort for 1.5 years to two-years and stepped away from that. Clearly, something we need is resolution of the PJM capacity market. If reliability is going to continue to be served from the point of supply, then FERC has to do something other than, say, the current PJM RPM, is not just reasonable. They have to have to replace that with rules and hopefully they will replace with the rules that meet the two objectives they've set forth; namely to eliminate price oppression and number two, to allow states to access the resources that they want to. Another thing that needs to happen is that we need to get a recognition for the attributes of different power plants the society appears to value, but the market doesn't price in. The one that's most glaring is carbon. I think if we can do one or both of those things, then our fleet is extremely well positioned; in the meantime, it continues to generate some healthy positive cash flows for the utility to make use of, but if somebody else can make better use of them, we're willing to listen. Until that time, we're quite happy to run these good assets and await further progress in price formation, further progress on capacity markets and further progress on the pricing of carbon. But, your observations are spot on. I did not mean to suggest that spark side expanded, and that everything was fixed in wholesale power market design.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Greg Gordon from Evercore. Please proceed.
Greg Gordon:
Two questions. Not to beat a dead horse on the power side of the house. The willingness to enter into negotiation with Orsted, to take a position in the project itself, feels like a bit of an evolution of your thinking in that - correct me, if I'm wrong and I may be wrong. The last time we talked about this publicly, you had said that your interests would lie, primarily and mainly in building the infrastructure to support that kind of investment and that you weren't primarily interested in taking direct equity interest in offshore wind. So, can you talk about the evolution of your thinking there, and do you think that, that could be given the quantum of the size of the potential market that you just quoted - a bigger part of your strategic vision going forward, and then I'll switch over to the utility side.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So Greg, I think it is fair to say there has been some evolution. I don't know that I would characterize it the way you did, but it definitely is fair to say there's been some evolution. The evolution really is the recognition that whatever skills one brings to the table, and there, there's been no evolution about what our skills are in terms of this particular project. It is an integrated whole. And the project doesn't stand - it doesn't meet its own financial expectations if one side successfully brings their skills to the table, and the other side doesn't, and what's most challenging of course is, how do you extricate yourself from the schedule risk, for example. I mean, there may be ways, and we'll explore them every year to protect oneself from cost risk, but at the end of the day if Orsted builds transmission - if we build transmission online, but turbines aren't there on time, then how on earth does the project succeed and vice versa. If the wind turbine is out there on time and we don't build transmission line on time, how do they get paid? So, these relative risks and returns are all part of the calculation going forward a year from now. But yes, it is fair to say that as we've had further discussions and grown in confidence in the skills and ability of our partner to do this and do this well, that we've been a little bit more open-minded about overall project risk and what that means for us..
Greg Gordon:
My second question is, can you just take us into a little more detail on the adjustment you have made on pension, and why now and how that flows to the bottom line - the accretion level that you've articulated?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Kind of simple in concept, I think Greg. What we did without changing any of the benefits within the pension - a split of the pension among the different participants, enabled a little bit of volatility to come off of the overall expense, and that all being what it is - one outcropping of that was that, that process during the year - and it was a mid-year this year - prompted a remeasurement. And so, if you think about what year-end looked like from the standpoint of overall returns and what it looked like from a market recovery, more generally that remeasurement ended up in kind of a recognition within the overall components of the pension of the fact that markets had come back a little bit, and so that prompted an uptick from the standpoint of overall P&L impact or a reduction of expense increase of income in total from the pension standpoint. So, it's really nothing more than the overall management of the pension, in general, but the outcropping of that was a remeasurement which prompted a lift because market prices had come back from where they were at the turn of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Christopher Turnure from JPMorgan.
Christopher Turnure:
I was wondering, if you can give us a update on the Energy Master Plan finalization coming up pretty soon here. Just, where are maybe stakeholder discussions around this and kind of what the impact might be on the CEF and Energy Efficiency finalization next year?
Ralph Izzo:
So Chris, as far as we know, we're still expecting a year end conclusion to the master plan. I'm going to stick with what's been publicly reported, because I think that's A, what we're allowed to say, and B, probably all we know. There has been some debate over the future of continued use of fossil fuels. There is a desire to decrease that as soon as greatly as possible, but there is a recognition that fossil fuels in particular, natural gas play a very important role in heating and various other users in the state. And therefore, given the housing infrastructure and the building infrastructure, that would not immediately lend itself to moving away from natural gas. One has to be reasonable about its continued use. So, it was I think just last week that the BPU announced the details for a public review of the plan, and there they did repeat that it would be available by the end of the year. There's been a little bit of discussion around how aggressive the state should be in encouraging electric vehicles, and there seems to be some enthusiasm for that. But, every draft we've seen continues to espouse the importance of nuclear, and which is important to us. I think those are the issues at a high level that matter and that we've been paying careful attention to.
Christopher Turnure:
And, I mean clearly, the governor has stated his position on the PennEast pipeline which you're no longer a part of but is I guess more broadly, the debate in New York State on gas availability having an impact on the discussions or the Energy Master Plan so far?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, I think that, that conversation in general is not quite a specific in New Jersey as in New York when it comes to permitting of specific projects and the ability to hook up customers. But that general topic of continued reliance on fossil fuels has made its way into New Jersey Energy Master Plan, not in this immediate timeframe, is my interpretation, given what we're witnessing in New York versus what we're witnessing in New Jersey.
Christopher Turnure:
And then, my second question is just a follow-up on the offshore wind announcement from the other day. It looks like you had an option to have exclusive negotiations, why did you kind of have to do this now, if you have a year to make a final decision or just what was the impetus behind coming out now as opposed to kind of keeping things going on in the background?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, the option to have exclusive negotiations required that we decide whether or not we wanted to preserve that option for an exclusive negotiations for this next phase, so we chose. I know, it's a little strange, yes indeed it does select an option for an option, but that we had - and we exercised that option at this point, we have an option to participate where there's no third option through option, through option. I'm just stuttering there, I'm actually articulating something accurately, believe it or not, still frightening.
Christopher Turnure:
And with that you had to specify the 25%.
Ralph Izzo:
No, that was - we had an option, once you specify, we could have gone higher than that, but we chose to focus on entering this space in a more measured way, at this point.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. Thanks for the color Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
And Chris that obviously, I mean as we learn more about the space, that number can be different, right. I mean we'll keep getting educated.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Shahriar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So, just a couple of follow-ups on the prior questions, just first on the 21, on the power hedges. Looked like, it was a bit more of a pronounced downward move in the hedges versus what you guys disclosed in the second quarter, and you only kind of modestly increased your hedges. Course in Sparks had some strength this quarter for Cal 21. So, I'm kind of curious what drove the downward move, which looks to be a little bit more pronounced than what the dictate markets, as you think about second and third quarter. Is there any other regional dynamics that we should be thinking about?
Daniel Cregg:
I mean, I think one thing to think about Shahriar, is to the extent that low deals are a bigger part of what's included there, you're going to see some of those costs end up coming through because they are offset within the revenue mix. So, we tend to see a little bit of an uptick, as we go through BGS which is one of the biggest load contracts that we have, and then as we go through the year, you'll see a little bit more of a decline, so it's a little bit of a sawtooth from that perspective, and that's maybe what you're seeing there.
Shahriar Pourreza:
And then, just on asset sales and Dan, specifically there has been reports around Bethlehem Energy Center and sort of you marketing the assets, so I'm kind of curious is there any updates there? Can you confirm that? And then it's your only asset left in New York, so sort of how you're thinking about that exposure?
Daniel Cregg:
I think, you're right. And I think that with your follow on to the question, actually you captured some of that concept as well. It's just a single asset in that area. So, years ago, there was thought processes around maybe expanding a little further, that did not happen. So, we are out and really checking value with respect to that, it is a situation where we will go through the process and make a determination as to whether or not we want to do something based upon what we see coming out of that process.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it, got it. Thanks helpful.
Ralph Izzo:
Shahriar, as Dan was referring to earlier about, we're always engaged in commercial conversations, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is any sort of requirement or commitment or decision that's been made on these assets.
Shahriar Pourreza:
That's helpful, and thanks just want to be a little bit more specific. And then just lastly, around sort of the offshore wind ventures and I know you're taking sort of a proof of concept kind of dipping your toes in the water, no pun intended. But, there has been some sort of negative dialog from rating agencies, we've seen some downward movement in ratings with some of your peers and certainly around the New England region who have taken a much bigger role in this process. So, I'm kind of curious how the conversations are going with the rating agencies, especially as you start to take the step - a little bit more forward, as proof of concept starts to kick in there, and eventually we potentially could take a bigger piece, whether it's transmission or what have you? I'm curious, if there is any dialog right now, you've had with the rating agencies and if there is any concerns coming from their end?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Shah, what I would say about that is that obviously - clearly we understand that aspect of what you're talking about from the standpoint of current exposure, as described by Ralph; where we are right now is in a situation where we will continue the dialog into the next number of months and into next year to make a determination as to what the ultimate path is going to be. So, there is awareness, that this is a possibility for us to make that investment. There is an understanding as to the nature of the magnitude - relative nature, relative magnitude of the investment and it falls into the broader category of where we are in total, and where we come from, from the standpoint of financial strength as well. So, it's not something that we're blind to, we're aware of and as are the rating agencies, but that's part of our overall diligence, as we go through the next year or so.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
I liked your options on options on options, I have a follow on follow-on and follow-on, on the offshore wind here. The 25% - I'm wondering how you're thinking about that as a percentage of the project or as a dollar amount? What are your thoughts there? Why not, leave it more open to a 10% or 50% and what's the capital at risk that you think about?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, that percentage is based upon the agreement, we have with Orsted and suffice to say, Travis that we've done some financial analysis that has a total project cost expectation built in and therefore a related return, and if during the course of the next year, we find out that the project - that the 25% dollar value that we expected isn't what the project is promising, then we have the option to not participate at all. So, those terms are still being negotiated with Orsted. But yes, we do have some expectations of what that 25% amounts to in dollars and cents, and we'll spend a year making sure that those expectations are as solid as they can possibly be, and that there isn't some other realities that would cause us to basically walk away. We don't anticipate that, we're in good faith and with a fair amount of work done already, but a lot more to be done.
Travis Miller:
And then, when you think about that amount of capital that you would put into offshore wind, how do you think about that in terms of bucketing return on capital across the two businesses here? The utility, in terms of returns versus putting more capital into the utility versus returns relative to, say, buying back stock or other kind of corporate level or even Power?
Ralph Izzo:
So, our philosophy on that hasn't changed. We view share repurchase as value neutral that unless there is a dislocation in the market that the market is accurate, and therefore one, is not creating or destroying value and if the market is out of whack then you might be able to create value, if you purchase at the right time. And then we apply cost of capital to the regulated operations, which is lower than the cost of capital through the unregulated operations. This would be an unregulated operation, so therefore, we have a higher hurdle rate that we subject ourselves too because of the greater risk. When we compare it to Power business writ large, I would say that we are trading off merchant risk for some operational risk. We just don't know the offshore wind business as well as we know, the nuclear business and the combined cycle business, but we like the contract that Orsted has received from the State of New Jersey. It's actually a regulatory order, and we like their experience base. So, we are comfortable enough at this point to enter into this option agreement that says that trade off of commercial risk versus operational risk with this partner is worth taking, and over the course of next year, we have to turn that into even greater comfort as a result of the diligence that needs to be done. But yes, that was a lengthy speech, but the answer is, the return expectations on offshore wind would exceed the return expectations of the utility. Having said that, we are still very much committed to the utility, representing over 90% of our capital deployment over the next five years. And Dan and the finance team have done a great job of making sure that all of these things are possible, within the investment potential of the enterprise.
Travis Miller:
And just real quick on the utility side. I know, you guys just got through obviously a big rate case. But, given the spending plan and what's on the table in terms of Energy Master Plan, other possible - separate outside of general rate case, what is your thinking on timing of a general rate case?
Ralph Izzo:
So, we have a requirement to go and buy in five years from our GSMP which is 2023 is what we would have - December of 2023 I think. So, we've got four more years before we need to worry about that.
Travis Miller:
And nothing before that?
Ralph Izzo:
Correct.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson:
I have a question about transmission; in the last couple of months, we've been seeing, FERC put out a few orders trying to expand I guess competition or voice concern about competition out being in the specific areas of transmission development, and also PJM I think put a cost containment filing, not that long ago, that I think you guys have actually filed some stuff, and I'm just thinking when you look at these actions, how do you think about the potential impact on you guys, if it's possible, I know the variety of orders. I mean, I'm not asking for any granularity or I guess, but what the potential impact might be in terms of transmission development from your perspective, if these things come to pass as I guess initially filed?
Ralph Izzo:
So, I think what you're referring to Paul is an attempt by others and maybe even FERC to breathe some life into FERC Order 1000, which I have been an outspoken critic of, in terms of the tremendous cost and administrative burden, it has imposed upon customers, in exchange for a very, very little benefit in terms of creative and valuable solutions to transmission reliability issues. What I will say today is what we said when FERC Order 1000 first came out, which is to the extent, it potentially introduces competition to our own service territory and projects that we would embark upon, then we would make ourselves available to other territories, where we will be allowed to compete. Now, as long as that is indeed a level playing field across RTOs, I kind of like our skillsets and our ability to compete to the extent that other RTOs don't make it as open a playing field as perhaps PJM might, then that will be an issue, we'd have to raise at FERC and get fixed. Having said, all of that, I still believe that FERC Order 1000 was a solution in search of a problem, and has created more problems than it has done anything else. So, we will continue to try to point that out to FERC through actual cases, where administrative costs and burdens have exceeded overall project costs, in certain jurisdictions and this notion is just - FERC would be far better off spending its time figuring out how to fix wholesale power markets than trying to fix something that isn't broken, namely transmission construction.
Paul Patterson:
I hear you there. Any sense as to how some of these might - or is it just I guess too early to say maybe how some of these things might fall out, do you think?
Ralph Izzo:
I think it's too early to say, Paul.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lapides from Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Lapides:
Ralph, very basic question. First of all, how are you thinking about, now that you're a few quarters behind the rate case or anyhow after the rate case, how are you thinking about the impact of regulatory lag in the coming years, and whether you think rate based growth and earnings growth at PSE&G will move in lockstep?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So remember Michael, I think it's about 90% - I forget the exact number, but I will know by the time I get to EI, I'll do some more studying of our - the CapEx does get contemporaneous return at the risk of - in modesty, actually - there's no modesty, I am going to boast about our employees, they do a great job of controlling O&M. So the EMEC load growth we have is enough to help us combat about the regulatory lag associated with the 10% that doesn't get contemporaneous return. It isn't enough to make up for all of it, and our clauses do have some back-end CapEx that does not get clause recovery, but candidly, it is back end and closer to the rate case test year. So, we always have the ability to file for rate sooner, if we needed to, if the lag became too much. But, believe me all hands on deck are focused on earning our allowed return and quite candidly, Dave Daly and the team at the utility are doing a darn good job of making that happen. So...
Daniel Cregg:
And Michael, the other thing to remember as well is that the transmission side of the business has a formula rate filing, which is through contemporaneous as well.
Michael Lapides:
Right. And can you remind us, what is the formula rate increase in transmission for 2020 - starting in January 2020? What's the dollar amount for that?
Daniel Cregg:
Aggregate amount, I think was in approximately the $300 million number. It's a year-over-year jump that's a little bit bigger than the norm, because if you think about the last year, there was some particular tax flow backs, which are not there. So, from a year-over-year standpoint, that's a little bit higher than the norm, because of the absence of that giveback, which will conclude at the end of this year.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. So roughly $300 million step up from 2019 to 2020?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Fremont from Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
If you were not to take an equity interest in the offshore wind project, can you give us an idea of how much capital spending would be involved to connect up the project on your side?
Ralph Izzo:
So Paul, I don't think any analysis has been done yet on what the land impacts are of the project. It is suffice to say the generator lead which is a transmission like - it's not FERC-regulated, it doesn't get a rate base treatment would be much bigger than any kind of on land adjustments that need to be made. And, it's probably not unreasonable to assume that, given that this lead would connect into someone else's service territory that the RTEP type of impact in our area would not be something that - materially change our capital budget.
Paul Fremont:
And then, I guess I just wanted to follow up on something that you mentioned earlier the net-zero pledge, we shouldn't assume, for instance for Keystone and Conemaugh that you're looking to replace that capacity and if you were to dispose of let's say Bethlehem, you wouldn't be looking to sort of replace that, or would you?
Ralph Izzo:
No. I'm not 100% sure I understood your question, but I think the answer there is no.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. In fact, almost the opposite of what we've said is that we would not be acquiring fossil driven generation. So, that would imply that replacing those would not happen.
Paul Patterson:
I just wanted to sort of make sure that I understood what you meant by that. Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your final question comes from Sophie Karp from KeyBanc. Please proceed with your question.
Sophie Karp:
I just wanted to go real quick, back to the offshore wind and if you were to take a 25% stake in that project, I'm presuming there would be a sizable chunk of cash involved, eventually as an investment. So, how should we think about your CapEx plan evolving and when would we get updates on that, as well as, how you plan to fund it as far as debt and equity mix et cetera?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. Sophie, I think the way to think about that, as we've been talking about a timeframe over the next number of months and for the year, to make an ultimate determination is to the investment that we may make, and I think that's the right time frame to think about some of those incremental details.
Sophie Karp:
So, you took down there - at some point, on the Energy Strong II decision, you took down a little bit your CapEx plan, and so, is that fair to say that you have some headroom there versus your original plan, maybe that you contemplated at the Analyst Day?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I think that's a fair way to think it.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks everyone for joining us. Lots of questions about offshore wind, I guess that wasn't a big surprise. But, the real message we want to make sure we leave you with is that, we continue with just extremely steady performance where we're on track to deliver on everything we've told you about, earlier in the year and have been telling you about for many years. Customer sat is solid, we're preserving our financial strength. This is giving us the opportunity to pursue some expanded clean energy future opportunities, and those are everything from the Clean Energy Future filing that is still very much alive of being discussed with the BPU and offshore wind, which we've now exercised the option to pursue an option. So, that's really where we want to leave you. Wish you all a Happy Halloween. Have a safe and enjoyable holiday, and we look forward to seeing you in about 10 days in Florida. Thanks everyone for joining us on the call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect, and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Maria, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. . As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, July 30, 2019, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 p.m. Eastern today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern on August 8, 2019. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Maria. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG's second quarter 2019 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We include reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements on our IR website and in today's earnings materials. I'll now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of PSEG. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us. PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2019 of $0.58 per share versus $0.64 per share in last year's second quarter. PSEG's GAAP results for the second quarter were $0.30 per share compared with $0.53 per share in last year's second quarter. Our results for the second quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2019 to $1.66 per share. This is a 3.1% increase over non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.61 per share for the first half of 2018 and reflects the growing contribution from our regulated operations. Earnings at PSE&G reflects the benefits of our continued investment in New Jersey's energy infrastructure and rate relief from the 2018 settlement of our distribution rate review. Slide 6 and 7 summarize the results for the quarter and the first half of 2019. We've had a constructive quarter with respect to several regulatory and policy matters that will advance our long-term strategy on several fronts. PSE&G has reached an agreement, in principle, with key parties in the Energy Strong II Infrastructure filing that will enable the continuation of increasing the resiliency and improving the reliability of critical energy infrastructure in New Jersey. PSE&G is working with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities staff with Rate Counsel and other parties on finalizing a stipulation of settlement, which we will then submit to the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities for approval in September.
Daniel Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2019 of $0.58 per share versus $0.64 per share in last year's second quarter. We've provided you with information on Slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter, and Slide 12 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And I'll now review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G, as shown on Slide 16, reported net income to the second quarter of 2019 of $0.45 per share compared with $0.46 per share for the second quarter of 2018. For the first half of the year, net income was $1.24 per share, up 13.8% from $1.09 earned in the first half of 2018. PSE&G's results were driven by rate relief and investments in transmission and distribution, offset by the reversal of the lower tax rate in the first quarter that resulted from the flowback to customers of excess deferred income taxes and by unfavorable weather that resulted in lower electric demand. As a reminder, we mentioned on the first quarter call that a positive P&L impact of the effective tax rate reflected in last quarter's earnings would largely reverse in this second quarter.
Operator:
. Our first question is from Praful Mehta of Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
So I guess the big move between last quarter and this quarter has been power prices in your power markets. So wanted to get a little bit more perspective on what you think has been the big driver that's driving this drop in pricing? And do you see this as more structural? Or do you see this as more onetime or short-term in nature?
Ralph Izzo:
Praful, so hard to answer that question, and we've heard everything that ranges from a move on the part of certain active participants in the market to fix a position issue that they had to the fact that there's no doubt that we are seeing limitations to the amount of infrastructure that can move gas to this region, and therefore, the potential for an oversupply of natural gas prices, keeping prices low, which is a continuation of the pattern we've seen over the past few years, right? So you have new construction, low gas prices and that combines to low power prices in this market, and we see a little bit of relief in terms of the construction of pipeline capacity outside of our immediate region. That, of course, could, over the long term, give some support to gas prices in the region, which will help our nuclear plants. We still don't have the compliance filing from PJM on fast-start. That may help, but in theory, the forward price curve should have anticipated that already. I think given the level of candidly slow movement at FERC on things that range from capacity markets to the operating reserve demand curve, the market probably isn't pricing a lot in for some of these reforms. So yes. So I think our answer is it's certainly not a temporary operation. There are some developments taking place in the market that are a combination of low gas, highly efficient combined cycle gas turbines that are creating a lower new normal. Whether or not $26 round-the-clock is the new normal, we're skeptical, but as is always the case, we run the company in accordance with the markets predicting and not any other point of view.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. That's super helpful color. In that context then, does that change how you strategically look at the generation business in terms of like the whole spinoff and separation that at one time was on the table? Does that change your view in any way? Or is that still kind of keep the businesses together is still the focus?
Ralph Izzo:
No. So I think you can judge that question's answer by our actions, right? So you've seen us move on some "non-core assets." So we're pruning ourselves at Keystone, Conemaugh. You've seen us make sure that to the extent that we operate fossil units, we have a heat rate that's competitive and now with the addition of these three units, we're at a heat rate of just over 7,000 BTUs per kWh, even though the marginal heat rate in the area is closer to 9,000 or 10,000. And the nuclear plants are really going to continue to operate as long as the state values those attributes. They are not in the money assets from a current market design, and it's only recognition of their carbon value that creates them as a viable market participant. So with all of that said, 90% of our investment is going to the utility and the ability of Power to generate a fairly healthy cash flow allows us to operate the combined entity without the need for any new equity. But however, you will see us continue to look at non-core assets the way we're looking at Keystone and Conemaugh.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So just on the stepdown of ES II from sort of what you've asked was, is there any sort of programs that were negotiated down? And curious if anything was eliminated or simply pushed out. And you're right in your prepared remarks the program is definitely comparable, but it seems like the prior program, ES I, supported more closely to the top end of your range, your prior range. So just trying to figure out what the delta is.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. It's a good question. So the headline number of people reporting is light of what they expected and I respect that, it certainly is the case. But there are several things you have to look at beyond the headline number. First of all, we thought the program would be a five year program and as we've reported, this program is now scheduled to sunset at the end of 2020 surely. Secondly, the ask was for $1.5 billion in electric over that five year period, and we were granted $740 million of electric up until 2023. So that, depending on how you want to look at things, is at least 50% of the ask. The big difference was really some policy daylight between us and the staff, and I'm going to defend the staff and defend ourselves at the same time at the risk of sounding hypocritical. We have seen, given the increased demand for natural gas in our region, electric generation is gas driven, residential customers are seeking more natural gas that whenever, and it's rare fortunately, but whenever there are issues with the interstate pipeline system is that we run into some operational challenges in terms of supplying natural gas to our customers. And candidly, there has been some fairly well-organized opposition to further construction of interstate pipelines into our region, right? So the new build that we're seeing in gas pipelines tends to be heading south of us much more than it is and directly into the Metropolitan New Jersey, New York region. So we proposed a fairly large program that would deal with that issue, so that we would have a highly resilient gas distribution system and, candidly -- so we think that's a really good thing to do because even though we talk about lots of things around here, the number one thing our customers expect from us time and time again is reliability. Whether that's electric reliability or gas reliability, it's always reliability. And I think we proposed a very good program to enhance the reliability of our gas distribution system in the face of a limited new pipeline construction and the possibility of future operational challenges on the existing system. And in light of all that the BPU staff believes they have on their hands in terms of demands on customer bills, not the least of which is our own gas system modernization program to replace an existing cast iron system and things like offshore wind and various other renewables targets that are included in solar expectations, they just did not have the appetite at this time to pay for what they do just more of an insurance program rather than a pressing operational correction such as Energy Strong II electric or gas system modernization. So long-winded answer. Short answer is yes, there was a significant gas resiliency program that the staff simply did not want to do under a clause type recovery at this time, and that's understandable. We don't agree, but it's understandable.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Right. And just one follow-up, Ralph. As -- one of the strongest attributes of this story has always been about Power shrinking but PSE&G is growing, right? So our earnings mix is improving, we're getting more regulated. So as you sort of start to think about your current range, right, at your utility, are there items that we should be thinking about that could be incremental to your growth, not items that can sort of extend the runway but be incremental, but you're not ready to embed it in your plan?
Ralph Izzo:
Well. I feel like we're the only company with about 7.5% to 8.5% CAGR. We're growing fast, but I promised myself I wouldn't whine today and there I go, I'm going to catch it from this. No, look, one of the things that I'm sure you're interested in is that we have predicted a third quarter resolution of the Clean Energy Future filing and that's not a third quarter resolution anymore, right? We basically have a continuation of our programs which were over, so -- but that's not what that filing is about. I mean, whatever it is, $35 million a year program is not what we're trying to achieve there. And that is really a healthy, great conversation that we're having with people about where the state is heading, whether or not you put the cart before the horse. In this case, we think the cart is the Energy Master Plan and we were the horse and others think that the Energy Master Plan is the horse and our filing should be the cart. So don't look past that. I know that the future is what matters, but that is still a $3.5 billion filing that is a drop in the bucket from an electric vehicle point of view and from an energy efficiency point of view in terms of the overall market need. Then there are other things, Shar, that we think about all the time and talk about all the time that we're just not ready to discuss publicly. I am not trying to create any false expectation there, but there are always other ideas that we have that would benefit the state of New Jersey and that relate to primarily electricity and the infrastructure needed to keep the state's economy and quality of life at an elevated level. The number one gating function is not ideas, it is impact on the customer's bill, which is why you see us looking at a different part of the customer's share of wallet. And that's what's so important about the Clean Energy Future filing, is that we're going to ask customers to actually pay us less while we make more because we're going to be doing things for them that right now others do for them, and that's an important consideration.
Daniel Cregg:
And I think the only thing I'd add, Shar, is just, if you think about the Governor's agenda, everything he is trying to do from a clean energy perspective, there's an awful lot of things that are out there that I think provide opportunities, but I also think it's a matter of working through all those things. And it's been a pretty heavy agenda to date, and I think that's going to continue, but part of that is what you're seeing with respect to letting the Energy Master Plan run its course through the balance of the year and working our way through the clean energy filing.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Right. And I think that's one of the things that's being overlooked today.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski of Macquarie.
Agnieszka Storozynski:
So I have a longer term question. So you mentioned that you are planning to operate your other conventional power plants over their useful life, which I understand as no plans to sell your gas plants. But the new gas plants are -- and actually existing ones as well, seem to be exposed to not only oversupply of natural gas but also offshore wind. You have this potential equity investment in offshore wind in New Jersey but even without that, it seems like the Northeastern New Jersey and Maryland as well likely will get additional offshore wind capacity. So how do you see that growth in offshore wind installations vis-à-vis your existing conventional gas plants?
Ralph Izzo:
So Angie, I'm so glad you asked that question because that's an important clarification. I think if we had been more precise, we would have said that if we had retained our gas plants, then their natural evolution would've been an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by the year 2046. The only thing that is in our plans right now is to not acquire any new or build any new. We were not walking ourselves into the continued ownership of the gas plants for 2046. So that is a gap in our communication that I'm glad you exposed. So the main thesis that we're trying to achieve here is to get an important seat at the table on what constitutes a net zero conversation by 2050. And there are two things that we think are really important. Number one, that there was a technology gap to getting to net zero as of today, and that technology gap needs to be fixed. And a way to fix that technology gap is by giving clear signals in the market that carbon matters, call that a national energy price, call that a PJM energy -- carbon price, call it what you want, but we think that the market has not unleashed its fully creative forces in the absence of that price. And we've got this fairly inefficient mechanism where people have ZECs and RECs and every other alphabet soup you can apply going on a state-by-state basis. The second thing we want to expose is that we're going to greatly improve our carbon emission rate when we sell Keystone, Conemaugh. The planet doesn't care that we sell Keystone, Conemaugh. This planet is still going to run. So this notion of what is our carbon intensity is not necessarily going to strike at the physical reality that needs to be achieved in terms of carbon reduction emissions -- reductions. So all we were pointing out is if we just continue -- if we were to continue to run our gas plants as planned, then we would be 80% lower by 2046 than we are today. That does not mean that we will -- doesn't mean that we won't, but doesn't mean that we will retain all ownership of the plants before them. I don't know, Dan, if you want to add to that?
Daniel Cregg:
No. I think that distinction is exactly right. It's not reflecting an early closure; it's reflecting running them through their useful life. But ownership, certainly just like Key/Con, certainly could change as we step through time.
Ralph Izzo:
And despite the...
Agnieszka Storozynski:
Just one follow-up. I understand, okay, so you're not trying to say that you will or won't retain the ownership, but I'm just thinking that does it play a role, that decision on the future ownership of these assets, into your decision on having an equity stake in that Ørsted project in New Jersey?
Ralph Izzo:
So the Ørsted project in New Jersey, as you know, came about as a result of us having an early role in a predecessor company to Ørsted, where we owned an offshore land -- an offshore lease and that was acquired by Ørsted and given the state's commitment to build offshore wind, I think, somebody help me, is the contract price public? I think it is. Is it not?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. At $98.10 a share starting in 2024 installation per megawatt hour, we believe that's an economically viable project and want to participate in a way that matches our skill set. Having said that, I can't even begin to tell you what I would do to get a $98 per megawatt hour contract for our nuclear plants or our gas plants. I mean, it's at least 3x above market, and that's a decision the state has made. And it will, as you, correct, it will factor into probably the earlier-than-normally planned retirement of some inefficient gas units. But the absence of storage technology, the absence of demand-side management controls through advanced metering infrastructure necessitates the need for ongoing natural gas dispatchable power. And to the extent that those units become marginal units and don't realize any value in the energy markets, then the capacity market design will be instrumental to the reliability of the grid. So these are challenges that we pay attention to every day, and we try to have good conversations, and we do, with PJM and with FERC and with the state. But yes, 3,500 megawatts of zero marginal cost, highly-subsidized offshore wind is going to have a negative effect on less efficient gas plants. There's no question about that, and we will be mindful of that in making all of our investment decisions going forward.
Daniel Cregg:
But ownership potential within the offshore wind opportunity is not premised on ownership or lack thereof of gas plants onshore.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Turnure of JP Morgan.
Christopher Turnure:
I was wondering if you guys can just give us any thoughts you might have on the next steps at FERC for PJM reform and any constraints on the commission or constraints that they might be thinking about that might make them want to act faster?
Ralph Izzo:
Chris, sometimes, I wish that we could have 20% of the Q&A reserved for us to ask you folks questions because there are some mysteries that we would love to see unshrouded as well. I'm going to quote for you what I've heard quoted of Chairman Chatterjee that they are working on this every hour of every day, every day of the week and they understand the importance of it and they're not delaying the August auction. The August auction is already a four month delay from what should have been a May auction. There is a point of view, I think, that is not unreasonable that says, okay, when you have four people, there's a chance for a two, two vote, when you have three, there's no such chance for a two, two vote. I guess, there's a chance for one, one, one vote, I don't know. And that perhaps, there is some philosophical logjam that can be broken now. I do believe there are comments recorded in the press so that was not the issue. So if it's resolved by middle of September, then I suspect that, that might have been the issue. If it takes longer than that, then I think it's this challenge that has been quoted coming out of the Chairman that on the one hand, how do you protect states' rights to choose and on the other hand how do you allow regional market to operate efficiently. We're of the point of view that the market wasn't broken to begin with, but if you want to fix it, the best route that we've seen is the current PJM proposal. But that was a really long-winded way of saying you really have no clue what's going on there right now other than what has publicly been revealed.
Daniel Cregg:
Chris, maybe just to add to that. It has been a very long time since they have ruled. They have had a proposal in front of them for a long -- in front of them for a long time, and yet, when you read the order there, the words and especially some of the consenting opinions reflected some urgency, yet we haven't seen anything. So I think the potential breaking of a logjam, I mean, having an odd number of commissioners manned up helping, and I think that from folks we've talked to, it seems that maybe something in September. If you marry up that urgency with the fact that nothing has happened to date, some thing has got to change and maybe just going through an odd number of commissioners will get us there. But I think there's more speculation than knowledge right now, and we'll wait to see what happens.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. I appreciate the commentary there on a difficult question. And then certainly I think, both of you have talked a lot about the Energy Master Plan and the potential settlement agreements around gas investment and what this all means for the future of the state. But just a little bit more tactically, as the negotiations continue until a final version here, do you have a sense of kind of where parties stand and what direction that final version might head versus the draft?
Ralph Izzo:
Chris, unfortunately, those negotiations are confidential. I think it's not a breach of confidentiality to realize that New Jersey is one of the few states that does not have decoupling on the electric side, and we recommended a mechanism to achieve that and then this is a much, much bigger program, literally in order of magnitude bigger than anything we've done in the past. However, everything we've done in the past has been received with accolades and tremendous support. So I don't think I want to get into anymore detail than that, given the importance of respecting the confidentiality of what's been discussed around the table.
Daniel Cregg:
But on the EMP, in particular, there is a series of six hearings that are scheduled related to the EMP and I think some of those are, I want to say, August 8 and another one into September. So there will be two hearings on each of those days where you can at least get a sense as to where all the parties are coming out. But from a timing perspective, year-end for conclusion of that EMP is what's anticipated.
Christopher Turnure:
I guess, kind of, so far, no major pushback to speak of when it comes to the anti-gas direction that the EMP is going at.
Ralph Izzo:
From a Clean Energy Future filing? I'm confused. I'm sorry, Chris, I'm not grasping the full...
Christopher Turnure:
So I was referring more just to the Energy Master Plan and the finalization of that and kind of the direction that, that's going to go in versus the draft.
Ralph Izzo:
No, no, no. One should not construe the decision on our Energy Strong II filings as having anything to do with whether or not natural gas pipelines into the state are problematic for Clean Energy Future. I think, if anything, you can just look at GSMP II to realize that the importance of making sure that our current distribution system is not leaking and is in fact operating well as a recognition of the -- certainly the near-term, near-term being next few decades, importance of natural gas.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI.
Gregory Gordon:
Most of my questions have been answered, but I was just hoping maybe we can go back over the numbers on the proposed settlement on Energy Strong and be clear on sort of like an apples-to-apples basis where that proposed settlement is versus what the initial ask was? And then also, given the -- when is it that we now think the more rational expectation is of getting a Clean Energy Future decision? Is that now is going to, I guess, be sequenced behind the Energy Master Plan filing, so that was just your whole cart-horse, horse-cart question?
Ralph Izzo:
That's right. Correct.
Gregory Gordon:
And so how do we think about the timing of that and what milestone should we be looking at to get a sense of where we end up?
Ralph Izzo:
Okay. So let's do Energy Strong II first. To recall, we filed a $2.5 billion program over five years. Typically, these programs take about one year to resolve, so we are close to that one year mark coming up. And that request was $1.5 billion on electric and $1 billion on natural gas. And what we received was a program that we expect to see approved in September of this year, that will only run until December of '23 and of the $1.5 billion in electric, $741 million of that was approved. But importantly, just about every program that was asked for was approved, just not the dollar amount. So the prudency of the programs, I think, we feel really good about. Conversely on the natural gas component, of the $1 billion that was requested, most of that, about $800 million of that was for this notion of resiliency of the distribution system. Basically more interconnections between our distribution pipes. And the -- then there was about $200 million in reinforcing some of our measurement, metering and regulating stations. And half of that smaller piece was approved, $100 million. So electric $740 million out of $1.5 billion; gas, $100 million out of $1 billion. A December '23 end date versus a five year program. And that ends up yielding an annual run rate that's about 10% less than the annual run rate of Energy Strong I. On Clean Energy Future, the Energy Master Plan is scheduled to be finalized this December, end of the year, and a draft was issued already and the stakeholder hearings are already scheduled. So there should be no reason why the board can't complete that work by the end of the year. And then you may recall that the Clean Energy Act of May of 2018 had a requirement that rules be promulgated on the energy efficiency programs within a year, so we're late there. That year lapsed three months ago. So we are understanding of the full range of issues on the BPU staff plate, so we are expecting resolution of our filing early in 2020.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller of Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
If I can go back real quick to that whole net zero concept and the vision there. I'm just wondering, one, does net zero means zero, such that by that -- through that vision, you wouldn't have any fossil fuel in your fleet at least? And then to more of the visionary aspect, do those plants even exist? Even if you don't own them, do you think they exist in a market where in an environment where we see a lot of the region going to kind of this idea of zero by 2050?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so Travis, so I apologize for repeating perhaps something I said before. One of the reasons why we made that commitment is because we want to engage actively in the discussion around net zero, because there is nobody who owns the definition of net zero. Typically, it refers to generation and the reason why the word net is inserted is that if you are still emitting carbon but you then come up with a way to extract carbon from the atmosphere, then your net effect is zero, right? So you're putting a ton of carbon into the air and you extract it by planting trees or coming up with some method to extract carbon dioxide and dissolving it in the ocean or something of that sort. That's typically what people refer to. We think that, that is not what -- is not the full breadth of what matters to the planet. And you used a great example just a second ago, right? So if we won accolades for reducing our carbon footprint, but all we've done is sell the plant to somebody else who is still running it, the planet doesn't care about that. By same token, if we get approval of a multi-billion dollar clean energy filing and people use less energy, we don't get credit for that, we think we should. If we electrify transportation, we don't get credit for that, we think we should. So we're just trying to remind people that the subject is complicated and never lose sight of what problem it is you're trying to solve whenever you engage in these policy discussions because sometimes we forget what problem we're trying to solve and we do crazy things like put production tax credits in place that produce negative marginal cost and put pressure on nuclear plants to retire. So there is no unique ownership of the term net zero, but typically speaking, nowadays, it refers to both the simultaneous production and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Yes, that's clear. So you do think there is a place for fossil fuel and the net zero or this is, kind of, zero-ish concept?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no. That's right. We do. I mean, carbon capture and storage would allow for fossil fuels to continue to operate.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Conemaugh sale deal, view that as accretive or dilutive or kind of neutral to EPS?
Daniel Cregg:
I think you cut out there in the beginning, but I think your question was, is the Keystone, Conemaugh sale accretive or dilutive. I think for '19, it doesn't really move the needle at all. And as we step forward, we would see some mild benefit.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And just trying to kind of think to the puts and takes of that, how material is the O&M and kind of what's the book value that you had prior to the write down? I'm just trying to think about backing out O&M and D&A, just to kind of think about the accretion impact of this?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, I don't think we've had a separate disclosure of the O&M, but the book value was on the order of about $400 million or so.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Prior to the write down. Okay. And then one last thing. When you think about you need potential portfolio additions, including offshore wind, do you look at it and say, hey, we'd like to have a controlling position or we'd like to have an operating position, just given your history as a pretty strong operator of plants? Or are you willing to be a minority owner?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. We're definitely willing to be a minority owner, it's something that's new to us, where we don't have that operating experience.
Operator:
And Mr. Izzo and Mr. Cregg, at this time, we do not have any time for any further questions. I will turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Maria. So thanks, everyone, for joining us today. I know that Dan and Carlotta and I have a bunch of plans to be on the road to visit with many of you, and we look forward to that. And we hope you enjoy the rest of the summer. Thanks for joining us.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by my name is Cristal and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Thursday May 2, 2019 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2:00 PM Eastern today, until 11:30 PM Eastern on May 10, 2019. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Cristal. Good morning and thank you for participating in our earnings call. PSEG’s first quarter 2019 earnings release, attachments and slides detailing operating results by the company are posted on our website at investor.pseg.com and our 10-Q will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters discussed during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and are included in today's our earnings release. I would now turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. [Operator Instructions].
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us. Earlier today PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2019 of $1.08 per share versus $0.97 per share in last year's first quarter. Our GAAP results for the first quarter were $1.38 per share compared with a $1.10 per share in the last year's first quarter, thereby demonstrating the growing contribution from our regulated operations as well as solid operating results from both businesses. Details on the results for the quarter can be found on Slide 6 of the earnings presentation. These results reflect the benefits from our continued investments in New Jersey energy infrastructure and a full quarter of new rates based upon PSE&G’s 2018 distribution rate case settlements. At PSEG, we continue to align our business objectives with New Jersey's energy and environmental policy goal. As a reminder, over the coming five years, PSE&G plans to invest approximately $11 billion to $16 billion on programs which are expected to provide annual rate based growth of 7% to 9% starting from 2018 year-end base of approximately $19 billion. In addition to investments that improve electric system reliability and resiliency. We recently began the second phase of the $1.9 billion gas system modernization program that will replace approximately 875 miles of gas lines over the next five years and make other improvements to reduce methane leaks and ensure critical energy infrastructure that’s available to support New Jersey's economy. Turning to operations, the first quarter of 2019 had slightly colder temperatures in comparison to the first quarter of 2018. At PSEG Power, total generating output increased by 11% over Q1 2018, driven mainly by the additions of Keys and Sewaren 7 in mid-2018 which have added the Power’s increasingly efficient and clean fleet allowing us to reliably supply the market with flexible dispatchable generation. Our fleet of nuclear generating plants also performed well in the quarter, evidenced by a 98% capacity factor. Notably Salem 1 just completed its first ever uninterrupted operating run between refueling outages, delivering a reliable source of carbon free energy in support of New Jersey's clean energy goals. As we recently celebrated Earth Week, I want to recognize that it was less than a year ago that New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, signing two environmentally progressive bills into law, The Clean Energy Act and the Zero Emission Certificates program and the state has made much progress since then. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, the BPU was tasked with establishing and implementing the state's energy policy around the goals outlined in the Clean Energy act. These efforts include updating state's energy master plan by the end of this year, setting important targets for utilities to reduce energy usage. Developing the basis for New Jersey's first offshore wind solicitation for 1,100 megawatts in mid-2019, establishing a transition to a more cost effective approach for solar energy and carrying out the legislature's intent to preserve a major source of the state's carbon free electricity through the Zero Emission Certificates program. A vital step in reaching the state and Governor Murphy's clean energy goals. As you know, on April 18 the BPU commissioners voted to award Zero Emission Certificates and I'm going to start calling them ZEC, just simplicity, to all three of PSEG’s New Jersey nuclear power plants, Hope Creek, Salem 1 and Salem 2. The BPU order closely follows the legislation that established the ZEC program and Power began accruing the ZEC payments on April 18. This decision preserves over 90% of New Jersey's carbon free generation, saves thousands of direct and related jobs in Salem County and around the state prevents a significant rise in environmentally damaging air emissions, helps preserve fuel diversity and make no mistake, saves New Jersey electricity customers hundreds of millions of dollars and would have been even higher energy costs. Another way to keep bills as low as possible is by continuing to return the benefits of tax reforms of customers and there is good news on this front. PSE&G’s combined electric and gas residential customer bills are already 30% below where they were a decade ago and 40% lower when adjusted for insulation. In 2019 PSE&G will return an additional $380 million of tax reforms savings, primarily related to excess accumulated deferred income taxes in transmission and distribution rates. This is over and above the $262 million of annual rate reductions from the change to the corporate income tax rate from the 2017 federal tax act. These tax flow backs reduced customer bills as the utility continues to improve the reliability and resiliency of its T&D system, modernizing an aging infrastructure and advancing the state’s clean energy goals in a low interest rate environment. As I said, we continue to align our business objectives with New Jersey's energy and environmental policy goals. Our current capital spending plan and proposed investments in Clean Energy Future and Energy Strong II are perfect examples of that alignment. The second phase of Energy Strong will further strengthen and enhance the system reliability and resiliency and the energy efficiency portion of the Clean Energy Future filing, addresses the requirements in the Clean Energy Act to reduce electricity usage by 2% and natural gas usage by 0.75%. We consider our energy efficiency proposal to be the best and the most cost effective way to achieve the state's energy efficiency savings targets because that accomplishes these targets while limiting growth in the customer bill and providing broad-based access to such benefit. Both of these important proposals are being evaluated by the BPU and we expect to resolve them sometime during the third quarter. At Power, construction of Bridgeport Harbor is approaching completion and the anticipated mid-2019 service will add another highly efficient clean and dispatchable combined cycle gas turbine to Power’s fossil fleet. The Keys and Sewaren stations have continued to operate well since coming into service and drove a 63% increase in combined cycle output in Q1 2019. The completion of our 1, 800 megawatt combined cycle construction program will transform Power’s fossil fleet and bring in improvements of Power’s free cash flow generation as its ongoing capital needs decline. With respect to energy markets, FERC recently issued a ruling directing PJM and the New York ISO to change their fast-start tariff pricing practices, though they reflect the marginal cost of serving load. The FERC is directing PJM to make a series of tariff revisions to allow fast-start resources to set prices including restricting eligibility to fast-start resources that have a startup time of one hour or less and a minimum run time of one hour or less. PJM is required to make a compliance filing by July 31, along with tariff change information by August 30. FERC also directed the New York ISO to modify its pricing logic to a lot of the startup costs of fast-start resources to be reflected in prices. The New York ISO must make its compliance filing by year-end 2019 and implement the tariff changes by December 31 of next year 2020. We continue to watch the broader package of price sublimation reforms as they wind their way through the FERC’s process. An interim order expected from the FERC to reform the PJM capacity auction process toward a just a reasonable construct remains pending. If the PJM’s proposal was approved and with the receipt of ZEC, our New Jersey nuclear units, will undergo likely to subject to PJM’s revised Minimum Offer Price Rule or MOPR I'll refer to it. In the interim, PJM has proposed a two stage auction process and we continue to believe that either FERC suggested alternatives or the PJM approach can accommodate nuclear units receiving ZEC in the capacity auction process. As you know, PJM has asked FERC to approve holding 2022, 2023 RPM auction in August of this year based on existing rules. PSEG continues to participate in this case and we are awaiting further guidance and uncertainty from the FERC with respect to the auction. On a related note, on April 19, following the BPU’s ZEC decision, we withdrew our must offer exception filings and deactivation notices for the New Jersey nuclear units that we had submitted in compliance with the PJM auctions timeline. So given our first quarter results, we are affirming the full year forecast of PSEG’s non-GAAP operating earnings at $3.15 to $3.35 per share, at the midpoint of our guidance this represents over 4% growth in earnings over 2018’s full year non-GAAP results of $3.12 per share. At the midpoint of our guidance this represents over 4% growth in earnings over 2018 full year non-GAAP results of $3.12 per share. Higher contribution from regulated earnings at PSE&G which is approximately 75% is driving this increase in offsetting the challenging power market conditions. In addition, the benefit from a partial year of ZEC payments covering all three of our New Jersey nuclear plants has been reflected in our 2019 guidance. The focus and commitment of PSEG’s 13,000 employees to operational excellence supported our first quarter results and enables me to affirm our earnings guidance. I will now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph and good morning everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2019 of a $1.08 per share versus $0.97 per share in last year's first quarter. We provided you with information on Slide 10 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter and Slide 11 contains a waterfall that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And then I'll walk through each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G as shown on Slide 13 reported net income for the first quarter of 2019 of $0.79 per share compared with $0.63 per share for the first quarter of 2018. PSE&G’s results were driven by a full quarter of new transmission and distribution rates in effect, a reduction in O&M expense, and a reduction in the utility’s effective tax rate to reflect the flow back of access deferred taxes to customers. PSE&G’s continued growth and Transmission investment headed $0.03 per share, quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons. PSE&G implemented $100 million annual increase in transmission revenue, under the company’s FERC-approved formula rate effective January 1, 2019. Transmission revenues are adjusted each year to reflect an update of the company's investment program for the coming year. Gas margin, which includes a full quarter of rates implemented from the 2018 distribution rate case settlement as well as the recovery of investments made under the Gas System Modernization Program, improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.08, which is magnified by the seasonally strong winter usage for the first quarter. Electric margin was a $0.01 per share higher than the first quarter of 2018, also the result of implementing new distribution base rates. Lower distribution O&M expense added $0.01 per share from the absence of four Nor’easters experienced in 2018’s first quarter. In addition, higher depreciation and interest expense, reflecting the utility’s expanded asset base, each reduced net income by $0.01 per share versus the first quarter of 2018. Non-operating pension and OPEB added $0.01 per share versus last year. A lower effective tax rate offset by other items had a positive $0.04 per share net income impact compared with the first quarter of 2018. The flow back of excess deferred taxes to customers, which reduces revenue as well as expense, will lower PSE&G’s effective tax rate and lower customer bills and the positive P&L impact of the tax rate reflected this quarter will largely reverse in the second quarter. Winter 2019 weather was 3% colder than 2018 and 2% colder than normal, but due to the gas weather-normalization clause, weather did not impact results compared with the first quarter of 2018. For the trailing 12-months ended March 31, weather-normalized electric sales were flat and weather-normalized firm gas sales were 3% higher, led by increased Commercial and Residential usage. Growth in the number of Residential customers continues to trend higher at about 1% per year. PSE&G’s capital program remains on schedule. PSE&G is expected to invest $2.7 billion in electric and gas infrastructure upgrades to its transmission and distribution facilities during 2019 to maintain reliability and increase resiliency. PSE&G continues to pursue its Energy Strong II infrastructure investment program before the BPU. Developed under the BPU’s Infrastructure Investment Program or IIP, Energy Strong II infrastructure plan outlines $2.5 billion of capital spend over the coming five years. And the pending Energy Efficiency component of PSE&G’s Clean Energy Future filing is also pending before the BPU. Designed to achieve the 2% electric and 0.75% gas energy savings goals outlined in 2018’s Clean Energy Act. And for PSE&G, we are maintaining our forecast of net income for 2019 of $1.2 billion to $1.230 billion. Now moving to Power. PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.29 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $304 million. This compares to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.33 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $313 million for the first quarter of 2018. And our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense depreciation and amortization expense. The earnings release and Slide 17 provide you with detailed analysis of the items having impact on Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income quarter-over-quarter. And we've also provided you with more detail on Generation for the quarter on Slide 18. PSEG Power’s results for the first quarter reflecting increasing capacity revenue of $0.05 per share compared to the first quarter of 2018. Recontracting reduced results by $0.08 per share reflecting an approximate $0.03 per megawatt hour decline and the average hedge price compared to the year ago quarter. Volume increases versus the year-ago period added a $0.01 per share and gas operations were lower by $0.01 per share versus the year ago quarter. The absence of early Spring outages occurred in the first quarter of 2018 produce a favorable O&M comparison of a $0.01 per share in the first quarter of 2019. Higher depreciation and higher interest expense lowered net income comparisons by $0.04 per share versus the year-ago quarter. Taxes and other were a $0.02 per share benefit over the first quarter of last year. Gross margin in the first quarter declined to $31 per megawatt hour from $35 per megawatt hour in the year-ago quarter. Power prices were lower across PJM, New York and Maryland despite slightly cooler temperatures concentrated in February. The severity of weather this year did not pushed our prices higher as they did during the winter of 2018. Capacity revenues for the first five months of 2019 will be a positive comparison to the same period in 2018 and starting June 1, both PJM and ISO-New England capacity prices are scheduled to decline with the average price received scheduled to decline to $115 per megawatt in PJM and a $231 per megawatt day in ISO-New England. Coincident with the in-service date of Bridgeport Harbor 5, Power will begin to receive the $231 per megawatt day for the units 485 megawatt of capacity for seven years. Now let's turn to Power’s operations. Generation output increased compared with the first quarter of last year and output was driven by the addition of new combined cycle capacity. Power's gas-fired combined-cycle units produced 4.4 terawatt hours of output up 63% over the first quarter of last year with the addition of Keys and Sewaren. Lower spark spreads pressured realized margins as infrastructure build-out in the Marcellus shale region continues to erode Power’s gas cost advantage. Coal generated 1.4 terawatt hours, down slightly as a result of lower market demand in Connecticut. And Power’s nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 98% for the quarter, producing 8.2 terawatt hours of electricity representing 58% of the total generation of the fleet. Of note, Salem 1 strong performance was evidenced by its first ever continuous operating run between refueling outages going into its spring 2019 scheduled refueling. Salem 1 entered that refueling outage on April 12th during the scheduled inspection of the unit 832 reactor vessel bolts, it was determined that a higher number of bolts have degraded than originally projected. We anticipate replacing a total of 271 bolts during the current refueling outage, which is expected to extend the outage by about a month. We have the required tools materials onsite to complete the repairs. Some reactor vessel bolts were replaced at Salem 1 and Salem 2 in the past in 2016 and 2017 respectively during refueling outages at that time. And there was no impact at Hope Creek or Peach Bottom as the reactor vessel bolt issue really only affects pressurized water reactors. That said, Power continues to forecast output for the full year 2019 at 60 terawatt hours to 62 terawatt hours. For the remainder of 2019, Power has hedged 80% to 85% of total forecast production and an average price of $37 per megawatt hour. For 2020, power has hedged 50% to 55% of forecast production of 60 terawatt hours to 62 terawatt hours at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. For 2021 output is forecast to be 60 terawatt hours to 62 terawatt hours with 25% to 30% of forecast output hedged at an average price of $39 per megawatt hour. The forecast for 2019 to 2021 includes generation associated with the full year production contribution of 1300 megawatts of gas-fired combined cycle capacity at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland and Sewaren in New Jersey includes the mid-2019 operation of the 485 megawatts of gas-fired combined cycle unit at Bridgeport and the mid 2021 retirement of 383 megawatt Bridgeport Harbor coal-fired generating station. We continue to forecast Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings for 2019 and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA at $395 million to $460 million and at $1.30 billion to $1.130 billion respectively. I'll briefly address operating results from Enterprise and Other. For the first quarter, we reported net income of a $1 million versus net income of $5 million in the first quarter of last year and the net income in the first quarter reflects ongoing contributions from PSEG Long Island, partially offset by higher interest expense at the Parent. And the forecast for the year remains unchanged at $5 million to $10 million. PSEG closed the quarter with $65 million of cash on the balance sheet with debt at the end of March 31st representing 51% of our consolidated capital. Debt at PSEG Power represent 32% of its capital at the end of the quarter. Based on our strong balance sheet and credit metrics, we're able to fully fund our five year capital program without the need to issue equity. And at Enterprise, we continue to forecast non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $3.15, $3.35 per share. That concludes my remarks and I'll turn the call back over to Ralph, and we will both take your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Cristal, I think we're ready for the questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim.
Constantine Lednev:
Hi good morning. It's actually Constantine here for Shahriar How are you guys.
Dan Cregg:
Hi Constantine.
Constantine Lednev:
Just a quick one, on the walk for Power, you called out $0.01 of volume. Can you go a little behind that number? And talk about some of the power gas dynamics and the spreads because the volume generation is actually materially higher?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think if you take a look and we can talked a little bit during the prepared remarks on the call about some of the pressures with respect to the power markets in general and we laid out the overall impact that we saw from re-contracting both from $1 per megawatt hour as well as a $0.01 per share. So if you just take a look at kind of comparing volumetrically year-over-year and looking at the incremental volume and the incremental margin that's the clear vision of the $0.01 per share.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay. And kind of one quick follow-up on the Slide 18 with the cost of gas for the generation, those seem to be up materially per unit. Is that just a factor of gas takeaway capacity that we're seeing?
Ralph Izzo:
I think you are talking about the aggregate fuel costs?
Constantine Lednev:
Yes.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. That's there is biggest difference there, really as the two new units coming in. So the bump up that you're seeing from Keys and Sewaren running is just giving you a much bigger aggregate gas burn for the quarter.
Constantine Lednev:
I'm talking kind of per unit generation for the combined cycle. Does that seem to be also up a bit, as just the kind gas based dynamics?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. it’s a little bit of basis, but more broadly gas prices as well Constantine.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay. And just one housekeeping item on the hedge percentages. The hedge percentage for 2021 was down a bit of the range by about 5%. Is that just a factor of kind of how the total generation output has been forecasted?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, it's that as well as in the first quarter of every year, we have the BGS auction come through, by definition, taking on BGS and the size of the hedge all in one day ends up being a bigger impact in the aggregate. But there is some rebalancing as we work our way through that quarter, you're seeing a little bit of that. So it's not a material change to how we are doing anything, I think just as we walk through and when we see a bigger opportunity to hedge all in one day where BGS would do some balancing of that. I think that, coupled with the as we were working through that quarter and thinking about the potential for where our nuclear was pre-ZEC determination came into some of our thinking. So it's not a macro change and we're approaching things, I think it's just some nuances as we went through the quarter.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay. And I have last quick one just to reiterate. You mentioned the CapEx plans are fully funded with no new equity and that includes the top-end of the range versus the 9% is that right?
Dan Cregg:
Yes.
Constantine Lednev:
Okay, thanks. That’s all from me.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi Julien.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So perhaps let's kick it off on the ZEC side of the equation. Just going back to process-related questions, how are you thinking about the BPU in addressing some of the thornier issues around the implementation of MOPR, basically how do you see the state moving forward and how you do see yourself processing, just any potential carve-outs that you might need with respect to the units now that you've been formally allocated to ZECs? And how do you see timeline to that playing out?
Ralph Izzo:
So Julien, that's really good question, but it's tough one to answer, right. So until we know what approach FERC is going to take, we are really just engaged in [indiscernible] philosophical conversations. And I think the BPU commission is having a very clear answer to in terms of the value by virtue of their role. So the actual tactics that will be used to preserve the plants is really going to be a function of what FERC decides to do with RPM and we've talked in the past about some things that we've explored, whether it's BGS or possibly other message that we would take. I think the most important thing that we should take away from the events in the past few weeks because the state has plans to getting those plants online, where there are environmental benefits and weather issue.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Okay. Alright, fair enough. And I wanted to turn it back to the offshore side of the equation. I know there's a formal partnership with Orsted Deepwater at this point. But I wanted to understand just perhaps a little bit broader your participation in the state? Could you have relationships elsewhere amongst the other participants? And how do you think about potentially broadening out your involvement on the transmission side here? If there are other – indeed, other folks awarded projects or otherwise? I just want to make sure I understand. I understand that’s public award with Orsted but I just want to understand broadly your participation?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So a couple of things. So we do have an MoU with Orsted to provide energy management. The BPU at present is entertaining bids that are inclusive of transmission construction. They could decide in Phase II to do things differently than that, to separate the supply from the transmissions. And I think we've made it pretty clear that we don't believe we have the skills nor we're seeking to develop the skills to build the wind farm, but we think we have the skills to help with the transmission. So we would have some flexibility in subsequent rounds to help folks with their transmission needs.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So basically, they won’t necessarily be exclusive of your partnership in the Phase II? They could predict that– that separate transmission piece could pertain to any potential development?
Ralph Izzo:
Again, the answer to that is yes, provided the BPU decided to separate the supply from the transmission, which they have not decided to do. And we haven't taken a strong position on what's the better approach. It does appear that if you envision a long-term build-out offshore wind up and down the coast, then some comprehensive thinking of the transmission backbone is merited, but in the absence of that kind of coordinated effort, it really is a solicitation by solicitation decision that we'll have to respond to.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
All right, excellent. Well, thank you very much. Best of luck, we will talk to.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Can I just ask Ralph, I missed some of the quotes, of course you may be covered this, but just the recent delay with timing on the state’s Energy Master Plan update, do you have any battling on the regulatory process around your filings and just can you give us some context there?
Ralph Izzo:
So answer is no, it does not. As you know, Jonathan, the Clean Energy Future, which is the one that's most specifically relevant to the targets and goals set by Governor Murphy, comes under our schedule that's determined by what we used to call the [indiscernible] I don't know if we can call that or not. But coincidently, I just read a newspaper article this morning with the Governor himself commented. So you're getting this third-hand, I'm just quoting news paper article I wasn't with the governor yesterday. The reason for the delay is he wants to make sure that everyone who wanted to participate in a stakeholder process had a chance to do so. So I think it's a combination of that, which is straight from the newspapers quote and the fact that the BPU has had a lot of work to do. I mean you've got the offshore wind solicitation, the first-time ever you have the ZEC process the first time ever and in the meantime they have to regulate the water companies, cable companies, install our environmental remediation, the filings and various other kind of routine business that is a tremendous workload for them. So at the risk of perhaps may be deviating a little bit from the prepared remarks, since a number one person in the state is just a lot of work going on down there at that level.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And so you have the filing for energy efficiency, but what's the timing on other pieces of CEF?
Ralph Izzo:
So we don't have timing on that. And we just think discretion is a better part of valour, just given the workload down at the staff. We're just patiently waiting for that feedback on when they are ready to handle those other components. As you know, the EEPs, the energy efficient piece is $2.5 billion out of the $3.6 billion. So I just want to make sure we get that right before pressing on a couple of other components.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then, I guess, just is there any you like to share about what we should be at least conceptually expecting out of your Analyst Day at the end of the month?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Dan is going to upload in a moment, but you can expect to catch up on your sleep. No, I mean, you will bring up the data in detail, but it's really going to be where she goes. I mean, we're in really good trajectory, and I expect to stay in that trajectory and will just reaffirm that with some nice backup data and interesting stuff.
Dan Cregg:
We will be serving breakfast Jonathan, so you can still come.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. I guess, there's some, just back to my other question, the BPU has obviously agonized over the FERC decision and this means there are quite a bit of public dialogue about pressure on rates. You've made your comments today, Ralph, about how rates would be higher, perhaps in the decision they make. Can you just sort of share any comments on sort of the general turn of the discussions from that decision?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. Look, I don't think it's – expressed on my part is to really extend congratulations to the BPU Commissioners. This was a really hard decision for two reasons, right. It's a decision that is a better for the state and the planet, but for all and those are always the toughest decisions. It's not like you're doing something that fixes a situation, you're doing something to avoid a problem. So they avoided $400 million in higher bills, they avoided 16 million tons of carbon, they avoided pounds and pounds of mercury and NOx, they avoided thousand jobs of lose. So that's a tough case to make. It's all based upon studies and analysis. Plus they did by raising the collection of revenues in the states rate pay of $300 million. No regulatory ever likes to do that because its two-thirds, which is excellent. So I think that was an incredibly courageous, but right decision for the State of New Jersey, and again, the risk of being dramatic for the planet. So that's the color you heard is that goodness gracious. But for doing this, things will be a lot worse, and I've got somehow – I as a regulator has not only step to make that decision but explain it to people, we are candidly more concerned whether the kids are doing their homework and whether the boss is giving them right time and whether or not the house needs a new roof and not exactly as customers immerse deeply in the nuances of carbon emissions from gas plants versus coal plants versus nuclear plants. So I'll just give them a ton of credit for doing the right thing. Especially [indiscernible] of the, candidly, some of the work that was done by the Levitan folks which I think was not the best work.
Dan Cregg:
It’s Daniel, I think from our perspective on that front, if you think about and read through what was done, it seems to us they pretty clearly did not follow what was in the legislation itself. And there are particular elements of the legislation, the market risk, the operating risk that were part of the analysis in the legislation, but we're not part of the Levitan report that was pulled together. So we're scratching our head a little bit, and I think to Ralph's point, that the Commissioners looked at what was there and made the right choices to follow the legislation that was in place. And I think that reported from Levitan that pulled together and put in front of them. So I think they got to the right place and acknowledge that with some direct language within the order and I think that helped to set the record straight as well.
Jonathan Arnold:
I appreciate the color, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Hi guys.
Dan Cregg:
Hi Praful.
Praful Mehta:
So one of the long-awaited fast-start reforms has come well, so I just wanted to check with you on that in terms of was it in line with the expectations? If the move in the curve fully priced in for this reform and did you kind of see the movement you expected? How do you kind of see this fast-start reform kind of playing out?
Ralph Izzo:
Look Praful , we have heard, just like everyone else's that there was a debate between one and two hours. And whether it's priced in or isn't priced in, we don't know. What we only know is that we run our business based upon the forward price curve. And if I'm not mistaken, we have not seen much movement satisfying that could be a function of the fact that there's a bunch of implementation work yet to come. Or it could be a function of factor that was already priced then. But again, I don't mean to be vague. I just think we don't try to guess what the forward price curve has or hasn't factored, we just operate the business based on what it's telling us, that is available and in terms of purchasing and sales.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. Understood. Makes Sense. I guess on the refueling outage on the nuclear, it sounded like there was an extension of that by about a month, just wanting to understand why no impact on the annual. Is there some way to kind of offset that impact of an extension of the refueling outage?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Praful. I think it's two pieces. One is the fact that when we're providing ranges of output, you're within that range. So if you think about one unit, one month and 57%, you come down to a number that absolutely fits within that range. Probably a smaller thing to think about is that we have generation that's not far from where this facility is. And maybe thinking about, if you look at the interaction of what happened when Oyster Creek retired and we looked at nuclear generation went down in the state and gas generation went up in the state. So there's probably some aspect where we'll end up seeing some of that generation get replaced and it could end up being some of our units. But I think the more way to think about it is just the fact that we're providing a generation range and the magnitude of the incremental days on the outage will easily fit within that range from where we were to where we'll be on the other side.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. And that's helpful two-pronged color. And then I guess one final point, there seems to be a lot of generation assets pruning happening in terms of either rationalizing some assets, both buying and selling assets right now by a number of the other players in the space. How are you looking at the fleet? Is there an opportunity to rationalize anything or do you think, do you have the right kind of generation makes it this point? Just wanting to understand how you look at that?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. First of all, I like the environmental signature of the fleet and I liked the heat rate of the fossil units. But we're always willing to listen to people who were willing to offer an attractive price. So that's – I don't think we want to get into the acquisition or merger discussions of the phone. I mean, that's just personal comment in general. But I'd say in general, we like what we've done with our fleet in terms of its efficiency, its dispatchability and its environmental footprint. But we always think about what our core, what is in core and we talked about that as a board on a regular basis.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. Well, thanks so much guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.
Michael Sullivan:
Yes. Hey guys, how's it going?
Ralph Izzo:
Fine.
Michael Sullivan:
Yes, my first question, I just wanted to circle back on what Jonathan was asking about a little bit earlier and may be put a finer point on it. Just curious, just given the commentary that was made at the BPU meeting itself on ZECs and then some of what we've seen at the state level posts that decision. Are you guys expecting any sort of reverberations, particularly as it relates to some of the filings on the regulated side that you have pending right now?
Ralph Izzo:
No. What I would say on that, Michael, is that we always – we have been consistent. That's the investment needs are enormous. That the thing that we all have to be respectful of the impacts on the customer bill. And right now, we are 30% below where we were 10 years ago in our customer bill, 40% if you factor in inflation. So we're 40% below in real terms, 30% nominal terms and what we've committed to our customers and what we've committed to ourselves is to whether in programs using some combination of IIP or other clause mechanisms that keeps those rates fixed in real terms. That's rate bunch up and comes out kind of CPI level growth rate. And now the challenge is to do that at the same time that people's dependency on electricity is increasing and therefore their need for greater resiliency is increasing. And as the same time that some higher costs supply options are desired, carbon-free supply options, right? So I think the state and the BPU commission showed their strong commitment to a low carbon energy by doing what I would argue is the second cheapest way to reduce carbon by keeping existing nuclear plants alive but at a cost of $10 per megawatt hour. We are now in discussions with them on the cheapest way to reduce carbon. And that's for energy efficiency, which has a negative cost percent of carbon reduced. And then there'll be other things that we'll chat with them about in terms of being able to take energy efficiency to the next level through advanced metering. And then to really tackle the number one source of carbon in New Jersey, which is transportation, through helping to build an electric vehicle infrastructure. So the aspirations of there were all lined up from the government to the BPU to the company. It's doing that while respecting the customer bill that I think we're collectively trying to figure it out. So I think the merits of what we've proposed hasn't changed, the concern for the customer's bill hasn't changed. You just need to make sure that you place things in a way that respects all of those aspirations, to be mindful of the bill and to be mindful of the environmental justice.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Appreciate that. And just as a followup specifically as it relates to the pending Energy Strong II filing that you have any update on the settlement discussions front there and any sort of timeline that we should be looking at?
Ralph Izzo:
I think that should be looking at confidential. Michael. So really – I mean, we are still in settlement discussions. I think I can go that far, but there were a lot surprises, that there were some other business that step in front of that for us then the staff and we're having to ask them to have settlement discussions while we're looking at three first time ever solicitations for offshore wind and, I mean, they are just so as we down there and there are so much work on their plate that we have to be respectful of that workload.
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. And then just my last one, switching over to power. I think we got the PJM parameters for this year’s auction history. Just curious if at a high level, you guys had any thoughts on what the implications might be for your fleet.
Ralph Izzo:
That’s tough to digest. You could see the total numbers basically said that there’s greatest transfer capability into PS North, PS Zone and Eastern Mac is less transfer capability into Mac. And not surprising demand was down across the board. So, we haven’t done our analysis yet on what we think that implies. And with all due respect, my belief is even after we do that analysis, we typically don’t tell anybody. So, we do get it right though. I hate to be such a jerk about it, but I sort of like, we know things that we can tell them. but at this point, we don’t even know things, so…
Michael Sullivan:
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, this is [indiscernible] from Greg’s team. Hey, thank you for taking my question. I have a one quick question related to the power business. You noted that the realized spark spreads were pressured by rising gas prices. Can you please give us more color around this price dynamic? Is this something you think permanent or temporary in nature?
Ralph Izzo:
I think I would punch him more towards the forward curves then than any place else. And that’s what we always do reference with you and that’s how we think about it as we look forward. The main thing I would tell you is that as you look forward, they are going to continue to change. So, I think we’ve seen some pressure right now and as we look out into the forward curve, we’ve seen a little bit of tightening with respect to sparks and we’ll continue to watch them. And I think supply demand and overall use including whether it looks like it’s going to have an impact as we stepped forward.
Unidentified Analyst:
Understood. That’s helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Real quick. Ralph, how are you? What does a big things you’re looking for? What do you think some of the bigger things that could emerge out of the energy master plan coming out late in the year?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, for us, Michael, it would be the opening up of opportunities on the customer side of the meter. Whether that’s, energy efficiency, which we’ve clearly articulated, whether it’s electric vehicle infrastructure, whether it’s advanced metering infrastructure, which I guess is on the border. I don’t think, I’m not aware, at least of anyone who disputes our prudency and our thoughtfulness around the traditional investments we’ve made. Just going back to a second ago to the question that that was asked about what we expect out of RPM, I mean, whatnot for transmission investments, those transfer capability numbers would have been very different. So there’s huge consumer benefits to the transmission investments we’ve made and we all know about the benefits of the energy. Strong investments we’ve made in terms of lifting assets out of a flood prone areas. So, I think from my point of view of traditional infrastructure and resiliency and reliability, we’ve had a long history of very, very favorable feedback on how prudent we’ve gone about doing that. Well, we really are now trying to recognize the increased urgency around taking actions the preempt two degree seeing rise. Now, New Jersey is not alone, and we need more than New Jersey to act on this. But right now we have a very strong policy mindset this as we should do as much as we can and others will follow too. So out of the energy master plan, I’m looking for a reaffirmation of that commitment to environmental progressiveness that we’ve heard about, because we’re trying to lead the way on that front.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one question on utility side, just thinking about transmission spend, and I know you have really good line of sight when you think about transmission CapEx to the next year or so. How do you think about kind of year three and beyond whether there are any lumpy or large scale significant projects on the horizons like some of the ones you’ve done over the last three to five years or is it much more about lots and lots and lots of little bitty ones?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So it’s definitely more in the latter category. I think we’re, for the foreseeable future, past out peak transmission spend. Now the caveat you have to give for that as you know, is that the transmission is the first and last line of defense for the both Power systems reliability in the face of generation, construction and retirement decisions. And even though PJM does a good job of trying to allocate expenses associated with generator leads and things of that nature, the grid ultimately is a function of the physical proximity of supply to load. So barring some major, major changes in that dynamic, I think that you can safely assume we're in the mode of improving end-of-life facilities and maybe creating greater capability of our sub transmission and bringing it into the transmission domain. So it would be smaller project.
Michael Lapides:
Got It. Thank you Ralph. Much appreciated.
Ralph Izzo:
You are welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi Travis.
Travis Miller:
Just real quick. So, back of the offshore wind, if the BBU or any of the solicitation that they don't break out transmission, is that an area where you might be interested in JV or some other kind of partnership or you took on the transmission and other parts of that and left the partner to do the heavy lifting, so to speak?
Ralph Izzo:
So right now Travis as we said, we have just an MoU with Orsted in Phase 1 and that’s for generic energy management services and we've been clear with everyone and with Orsted that we considered transmission to be part of that. In Phase 2, we would have some flexibility to work with others or to resume that relationship with Orsted. I wouldn't want to predetermine that that decision because we have a fair amount of work to do in Phase 1 just yet.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And does the MoU specifically break out CapEx designation or is that just a general partnership?
Ralph Izzo:
All we publicly disclose is that it allows us to offer energy management services to Orsted.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And then also real quick on the hedging disclosures, just remind me or clarify are the ZECs included in the 2020 and 2021 prices?
Ralph Izzo:
No. That's just a market oriented number that you're seeing Travis.
Travis Miller:
Okay. That's the 30 and the 39.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Very good. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
You next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotia Howard Weil.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey everyone. [indiscernible] wasn't fast enough. Thank you. See you soon.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo and Mr. Cregg, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Cristal and thanks everyone for participating and for your questions. So again, as you know, I mean our long-term strategies to transition our business to a mostly regulated company was predictable cash flows and every way we look at it that feels like it's on track to us. We have not only reached the point where 75% of non GAAP operating areas have come from utility, but as we look ahead to the five year capital program, a 90% of it and possibly more depending upon the outcome of the filings will be directed towards the regulated business. So that's going to improve the reliability and efficiency of our operations. It's going to benefit our customers and it's going to support New Jersey's energy policy goals. So Power is going to see it's free cash flow improved this year. It's going to continue to support our investment programs and dividend growth. It's going to enable PSEG to meet the objectives of that five year capital plan without the need to issue equity. So we like the trajectory we're on. Thank you again for joining us and hopefully we'll see everyone on May 29th at the New York Stock Exchange for our annual analyst day. Breakfast included then. So thanks, everyone. We'll see you soon. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect. And thank you for your participation.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Julie, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, February 27, 2019, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 pm Eastern today until 11:30 pm Eastern on Thursday, March 7, 2019. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Julie. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our earnings call. We released our fourth quarter and full year 2018 earnings results earlier today. The earnings release attachments and slides detailing operating results by company are posted on the IR website at investor.pseg.com, and our 10-K will be filed later today. The earnings release and other materials we will discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and are included in today's slides and in our earnings release. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on today's call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2018 financial results. Earlier today, we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.56 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.57 per share in the fourth quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year were $3.12 per share, up 6.5% over 2017's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.93 per share. Our GAAP results for the full year of $2.83 per share includes the recognition of net unrealized losses on nuclear decommissioning trust equity securities, as a result of new accounting rules, mark to market losses and a gain related to the sale of the retired Hudson and Mercer generating units. Details on the results for the quarter and the full year can be found on slides 5 and 6. PSEG had a successful year in 2018 continuing our long term strategy of investing in PSE&G's infrastructure and growing the percentage of our earnings coming from the regulated business. We put $3 billion of capital to work at PSE&G constructively settled our first distribution base rate case in eight years, obtained approval for the next phase of our gas system modernization program which I'll refer to as the GSMP II, and filed two other significant regulatory programs. The first filing, Energy Strong 2 will enhance system reliability and resiliency, and the second filings, our Clean Energy Future, or CEF support New Jersey's clean energy goals and give every customer the opportunity to reduce their energy bill while lowering emissions. You may recall that New Jersey passed clean energy legislation in 2018, which requires utilities to implement energy efficiency measures to reduce electricity usage by 2% and natural gas usage by 0.75%. Our CEF proposals are aligned with the objectives outlined by Governor Murphy and the legislature and designed to advance energy efficiency, electric vehicles and energy storage as well as smart electric meters or otherwise referred to as advanced metering infrastructure, AMI to a broad group of customers in the least cost manner. We consider our proposal to be the best way to achieve the state's energy efficiency savings targets, as it accomplishes this while limiting the growth in the customer bill and providing fairer broad based access to such benefits. Speaking of the customer bill, PSE&G was the first utility in New Jersey to return the benefits of lower corporate income tax rates, which totaled approximately $262 million in customer savings last year. In addition, in 2019, we have implemented the return of $380 million of additional tax reform savings related to accumulated deferred income taxes that will further moderate customer bills going forward. We also made major progress at PSEG Power with last May's legislation that recognizes zero carbon attributes provided by New Jersey's nuclear generation and establish the zero emission certificate program. In addition, power completed and placed into service 1,300 megawatts of new highly efficient combined cycle gas units or CCGTs into our PJM fleet. With two of the three CCGTs now online, Power's expecting to complete its multiyear construction program in the middle of 2019. That will also bring an improvement in its free cash flow as powers ongoing capital needs decline. PSEG's operations performed with high reliability in 2018 when it mattered most, during critical times when service territory experienced extreme weather events that included a cyclone bomb, Apollo Vortex [ph], multiple northeasters, an extended summer heat wave and the wettest year on record. In addition to safely operating our T&D system throughout the year, our associates share their expertise and provided aid to many of our neighboring utilities. At PSEG power, our Hope Creek nuclear plant achieved its first ever breaker to breaker continuous run in April of 2018, helping deliver carbon free energy in support of the state's clean energy goals. Non-GAAP operating earnings at PSE&G grew by 10.5% to $2.10 per share in 2018, benefiting from incremental investments in transmission and distribution programs that expanded rate base by $2 billion to end the year above $19 billion for an increase of 13%. This growth is consistent with the approximate 12% compounded annual growth rate in PSE&G earnings over the past five years, and reflects the record $14.4 billion of capital invested in the reliability and resiliency of our system over the same period. Of note, PSE&G achieve this growth in earnings in rate base through constructed regulatory mechanisms that allow for contemporaneous or clause based recovery for the majority of those important infrastructure investments. Moreover PSE&G's efficiency and discipline in managing costs enable to operate without a base rate increase since 2010. And our recent distribution base rate review was completed with customer rates remaining basically flat. We will continue to drive this disciplined approach to efficient growth and earnings and rate base, along with a continued focus on the customer bill. Our investments in system reliability continue to be recognized for the value brought to our customers. For the 17th year in a row PSE&G was recognized as the most reliable electric utility in the Mid-Atlantic region, and was also awarded the 2018 outstanding Customer Reliability experience award, highlighting our outage reporting and restoration communications. Last May, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved a $1.9 billion 5-year investment plan to extend PSE&G innovative Gas System Modernization Program modeled after the infrastructure investment program process established by the BPU to incentivize investments in critical utility infrastructure. PSE&G recently began this next stage of accelerated replacement of up to 875 miles of aging gas pipe, which will carry us through 2023. In the coming months, we will strive to make progress on both the Energy Strong II filing and the clean energy Future Energy Efficiency Program with anticipated decisions on both programs sometime in the third quarter. Now let me turn my attention to PSEG Power. Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $502 million or $0.99 per share were 1% below last year. Power continues to exercise stringent cost discipline, while producing solid operating results that included higher generation from our gas and coal fired units over the prior year. As I mentioned previously PSEG power is nearing completion of its construction program related to its three new natural gas combined cycle generation stations with the last unit, Bridgeport Harbor 5 expected to be completed in the middle of this year. The Keys and Sewaren stations completed last year have operated well since coming into service. Together these three units represent 1,800 megawatts of new efficient clean gas fired capacity that will replace some older units and improve Power's competitive position. On the policy front, I want to bring you up to date on our efforts to secure recognition for the value of the environmental, fuel diversity and resiliency attributes provided by our three New Jersey nuclear units. Nuclear generation is a critical component of New Jersey's generation portfolio and it provides approximately 40% of New Jersey's electric power needs and over 90% of its carbon free electricity. The legislation created a Zero Emission Certificates program that is being administered by the BPU, which is now in the process of evaluating the three applications submitted by Power in December of 2018. If awarded the New Jersey Zero Emission Certificates, they will be set for a three year period at $0.004 per kilowatt hour, which allows for approximately $10 per megawatt hour in payments to any selected nuclear plants. The legislation requires a BPU decision by April '18. Any plant receiving as ZEC award starts accruing benefits in April with the first award period ending in May of 2022. The legislation requires nuclear plants to reapply for any subsequent three year award period. In December 2018 power submitted ZEC applications to the BPU for the Salem 1 and 2 and Hope Creek nuclear plants. These were the only applications submitted. As required the three applications included a certification in which Power confirmed that each of the Salem 1 and Salem 2 and HOPE CREEK plants will cease operations within three years absent a material financial change. While we are fully confident that each of our three ZEC applications demonstrates conclusively that the financial environmental standards required under New Jersey's legislation have been net we cannot predict what the BPU will decide. As a result we have continued contingency planning to shut down the units. In the event that any of the Salem 1 and Salem 2 or HOPE CREEK plants is not selected to receive Zero Emission Certificates starting in April of this year and don't otherwise experience a material financial change, Power will then take all necessary steps to retire all three plants at their next refueling outages. With respect to FERC's pending rule on the PGM capacity auction design an interim decision remains pending. As you know last June FERC issued an order finding that PJM's current capacity market construct is unjust and unreasonable, because it allows state supported resources to suppress capacity prices. FERC suggested alternative approaches, which included modifying its minimum offers price rule to apply to new and existing resources that receive out of market payments. FERC's other directive was to establish an option that would allow on a resource-specific basis state supported resources to be removed from the PJM capacity market along with a commensurate amount of load for a period of time. PJM submitted its recommendation for a two stage capacity auction, which would leave in state supported resources and load during the initial auction to determine capacity obligations. PJM would then remove the state supported units and rerun the auction with the remaining supply stack. The fill-in generation that replaced the removed resources sets the final capacity market clearing price for all resources. These filling resources are needed for the overall capacity obligation. They don't receive the market clearing price, but instead they get what's referred to as a lost opportunity payment, equal to the difference between their bid and the market clearing price. We believe that either PJM's two stage re-pricing proposal or the FERC's suggested resource specific FRR alternative can work with New Jersey's existing ZEC structure. Alternatively, if all of our New Jersey nuclear plants are selected to receive zero emission certificate payments in April 2019, but the financial condition of the plants is materially adversely impacted by potential changes to the capacity market construct being considered by FERC and in the absent of sufficient capacity revenues provided under program approved by the BPU in accordance with the FERC authorized capacity mechanism, then Power would still take all necessary steps to retire all of these plants. With respect to energy the PGM board Recently decided to submit a Section 206 filing to FERC covering PJM's reserve price formation proposal, also known as ORDC or Operating Reserves Demand Curve. This effort is intended to improve scarcity price formation and overhaul, operating reserve levels in energy prices to better reflect system conditions and appropriately value scarcity. PJM expects to submit the filings in the next few weeks, but the timing and ultimate implementation remain uncertain. And in fact, if implemented, any revenue recognition could be well into the future. The State of New Jersey has also made progress in its efforts to become a leader in offshore wind, following Governor Murphy's executive offer directing the BPU to move the state to order 2030 goal of 3,500 megawatts of offshore wind energy generation. An initial solicitation was established for 1100 megawatts of offshore wind. And the state received three bids just this past December. In connection with a bid submitted by Ocean Wind LLC, a subsidiary of - U.S. Offshore Wind, we agreed to provide energy management services and the potential lease of land for use in project development. We also retain an option to acquire an equity interest in the project. If --- bid is selected we would expect to make a decision regarding what, if any, investment we may have in the Ocean Wind Project in the second half of 2019. Our financial condition remains a competitive advantage and we continue to benefit from the financial flexibility that a healthy balance sheet provides. We ended 2018 with solid credit metrics that will enable us to finance our considerable capital plans over the coming five years, and provide the opportunity for growth in our dividend without the need to issue equity. Our total capital program for the years 2019, through 2023 is now $12 billion to $17 billion with over 90% of that amount directed at regulated utility growth, that improves the reliability and efficiency of our operations and supports New Jersey's Energy policy goals. Over the coming five years. PSE&G plans to invest approximately $11 billion to $16 billion on programs which are expected to provide annual rate base growth of 7% to 9%, starting from the higher 2018 year-end base of $19 billion. Our CCGT program is largely complete with just the commercial operation of the 485 megawatt bridge Port Harbor unit remaining. PSEG's continuing long term strategy to transition our business to a mostly regulated company with predictable cash flows is on track. A regulated utility PSE&G is projected to represent nearly 75% of our consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings this year. PSE&G Power, our high quality generation business will see its free cash flow improve and will continue to support our investment programs and dividend growth. So as for 2019 guidance, the conclusion of our distribution base rate case and incremental investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure, combined with a relentless approach to minimizing O&M growth have offset the expected declines in energy and capacity prices in 2019. PSE&G's business mix is expected to produce growth in 2019 consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings. So for this year we're forecasting consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings of $3.15 to $3.35 per share, which at the midpoint represents over 4% growth in earnings over 2018 results. This increase is led by a higher contribution from regulated earnings at the utility moderated by the expected decline in Powers result that reflect market prices for energy and capacity and also includes the benefit from a partial year of zero emission certificates for all three of our New Jersey nuclear plants. The Board of Directors recent decision to increase the company's common dividend by $0.08 per share to the indicative annual level of a $1.88 per share is the 15th increase in the last 16 years and reflects our financial strength, business mix and confidence in our outlook. Let me also acknowledge and thank all of our employees in both New Jersey and on Long Island for the outstanding contributions made over the past year, in utility operations and construction, in nuclear and fossil operations, and all the support organizations that enabled us to execute on a full regulatory and policy generating. I should not omit obviously our employees in Connecticut and Upstate New York as well. As we enter our 116 year PSE&G remains committed to our strategy to build long term value for our shareholders as we meet the evolving needs of our customers and the diverse communities we serve. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results and we'll be available to answer your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Great, thank you, Ralph and good morning everyone. As Ralph said we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018 at $0.56 per share and that's versus $0.57 per share for the fourth quarter of 2017. Our earnings in the quarter brought non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $3.12 per share, a 6.5% increase over 2017's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.93 per share. Now on slide five we've provided you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. We also provided you the information on slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter and slide 12 and 14 contain waterfall charts that take you through the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And I will now review each company in more details starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2018 of $0.47 per share compared with $0.43 per share for the fourth quarter of 2017. PSE&G's full year 2018 net income was $1.067 billion or $2.10 per share compared with net income of $973 million or $1.92 per share in 2017 which included $0.02 per share of benefits from tax reform. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year 2018 represented a 10.5% increase over 2017's results. As shown on slide 16 PSE&G's net income in the fourth quarter increased as a result of expanded investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure and rate relief put into effect on November 1, which more than offset an increase in distribution O&M. Both PSE&G's investment in transmission improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.04 per share. Gas margin improved by $0.06 per share as a result of rate relief and recovery of investment in gas distribution made under the gas system monetization program. Electric margin improved by $0.02 per share reflecting rate relief as well as higher volumes in demand. Changes to the accounting treatment of the non-service component of pension and other postretirement benefit or OPRB resulted in a favorable $0.02 per share comparison over 2017's fourth quarter. These positives were partially offset by $0.05 of higher O&M expense in the quarter associated with tree trimming and higher corrective maintenance. And in addition, depreciation expense increased by $0.02 per share reflecting higher plant balances. Taxes and other were $0.01 per share higher compared to 2017's fourth quarter. For the full-year, weather-normalized residential electric sales were 0.6% higher and weather-normalized residential gas sales rose by 3.3%. PSE&G October 2018 distribution base rate settlement provides a balance and constructive framework for regulatory stability over the next several years. PSE&G anticipates its next distribution base rate review by the end of 2023, and that's based on terms reached in the GSMP II settlement last May. This settlement recognize the inclusion of capital spending that was not recovered via clauses, deferred storm costs and an equity percentage of 54% offset by a lower return on equity of 9.6%. PSE&G also updated the transmission formula rate filing for 2019 to pass through additional tax benefits related to accumulated deferred income taxes. This latest update reduced the annual revenue requirement by approximately $155 million from the original filing amount, which called for revenue increase of $100 million. PSE&G investment of $3 billion in its transmission and distribution infrastructure in 2018 help drive a 13% growth and rate base to approximately $19 billion at year-end. Of this amount PSE&G's investment and transmission represents 45% or about $8.7 billion of the company's consolidated rate base at the end of 2018. For 2019, we forecast PSE&G's net income at $1,200 million to $1,230 million reflecting incremental investments and transmission and distribution and a full year of rate relief. Now let's turn to Power. As shown on page - slide 24, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.11 per share, compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.20 per share a year ago. The results for the quarter brought Power's full year non-GAAP operating earnings to $502 million or $0.99 per share, compared to 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings of $505 million or $1 per share. Power's non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and for the year amounted to $176 million and $1,059 million respectively. This compares with non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter '17 of $196 million and for the full year 2017 of $1,172 million. The earnings release as well as the earnings slides on pages 12 and 14 provides you with a detailed analysis with Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and cost. Power's results for the quarter were down from a year ago period, largely reflecting a $6 per megawatt hour decline in the average price received on energy hedges as re-contracting led to a $0.09 reduction in net income compared to last year's fourth quarter. This was partially offset by a scheduled increasing capacity prices in New England and PJM, which improved comparisons by $0.04 per share. An increase in generation output for the quarter improved comparisons by $0.03 per share. Gas operations declined by $0.02 per share as higher natural gas prices lowered commodity margin and impacted off system sales following the startup of the Atlantic Sunrise gas pipeline, and has enabled price convergence of Leidy Gas with higher prices at Henry Hub as expected. In addition to decline in Power's O&M expense improved net income comparisons by $0.01 per share and interest expense of $0.03 per share and depreciation expense of $0.02 per share both rose as a result of two new combined cycle units in service at mid-year. And higher taxes reduced net income comparisons by $0.01 over the prior year's fourth quarter as the absence of investment tax credits and other items offset the benefits of tax reform. Gross margins in the fourth quarter declined to $31 per megawatt hour from $38 per megawatt hour in the year ago quarter, largely the result of a step down in power prices from re-contracting. Power prices in the quarter improved slightly as gas prices rose in response to a long cold snap that lasted through most of November to mid-December. For the year, gross margins declined to $33 per megawatt hour from $38 per megawatt hour, reflecting the decline in average hedge prices for energy. Now let's turn to Power's operations and we provided you with some detail generation for the quarter and for the year on slides 25 and 26. Output from Power's generating facilities in the fourth quarter increased by 19% over the fourth quarter of 2017 and that's mainly from new capacity additions at Sewaren and Keys but also from higher output at our other New Jersey combined cycle units. Quarterly comparisons were also influenced by increased demand in response to the extended period of cold weather from most of the quarter. Our output of 56 terawatt-hours is at the high end of our forecast provided at the end of the third quarter which calls for full year output of 54 to 56 terawatt-hours. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 86.9% in the quarter resulting in a full year capacity factor of 91.4% which included as Ralph mentioned Hope Creek's first uninterrupted breaker to breaker run going into last spring's refueling. For the year nuclear production totaled 31.2 terawatt-hours. Powers gas fired combine cycle fleet operators at an average capacity factor of approximately 51% in the quarter resulting in a full year capacity factor of 52% producing 18.5 terawatt-hours of electricity for the year, up approximately 36% year-over-year. For the quarter output from the coal fleet was up 10% primarily from the Pennsylvania units which is in response to higher weather related demand. For the full year out performed the coal fleet increase 7% to 5.7 terawatt-hours as an increasing gas prices improved coal's competitiveness. An updated Power's hedge position is provided on slide 29. For 2019 with a full year of Keys and Sewaren combined cycle units at an expected half year of production from Bridgeport Harbor Five Power's forecasting an increase in output to 60 to 62 terawatt-hours. That's a 2 terawatt-hours since third quarter 2018 update. Following completion of the recent basic generation service or BGS auction in New Jersey approximately 80% to 85% of production for 2019 is hedged at an average price of $37 per megawatt hour. As a reminder our average hedge prices tend to skew higher after we layer in hedges from the BGS auction. For 2020 Power has hedged 55% to 60% of forecast production of 60 to 62 terawatt-hours at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. And Power's also forecasting out for 2021 of 60 to 62 terawatt-hours approximately 15% to 20% of Power's effort in 2021 is hedged at an average price of $42 per megawatt hour. The forecast for the 2019 to 2021 period includes generation associated with the full year contribution of 1,300 megawatts of gas fired combined cycle capacity at Keys and Sewaren the mid 2019 commercial operation of the 485 megawatt gas fire combined cycle plant in Bridgeport and the mid-2021 retirement of the 383 megawatt Bridgeport Harbor coal fire generating station. Consistent with our hedging practice the gas fired combined cycle assets remain more open to the market in the out years and can take advantage of spot spread opportunities within our ratable hedging program. Power's 2019 non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA forecast is projected to be $395 million to $460 million and $1.030 billion to $1.130 billion respectively. The operating earnings guidance for 2019 reflects the benefits of including a partial year of ZECs and the incremental contribution from three new CCGT units, offset by lower pricing on re-contracting lower capacity revenues, higher interest expense due to the absence of capitalized interest on construction and higher taxes due to the absence of the nuclear carry back benefit we received in 2018. Now moving on to PSE&G, Enterprise and other, we reported a net loss for the fourth quarter 2018 of $5 million or $0.01 per share compared to net income of $126 million or $0.25 per share for the fourth quarter of 2017. For the full year PSE&G Enterprise and other reported net income of $6 million or a penny per share compared to net income in 2017 of a $122 million or $0.24 per share. The results for 2018 reflect the absence of the one-time non-cash earnings benefit of $147 million related to tax reform and a decrease in energy holdings deferred tax liabilities partially offset by an after tax charge related to Remay [ph] in 2017. Enterprise and other reported a non-GAAP operating earnings loss for the fourth quarter of $12 million or $0.02 per share compared to non-GAAP operating loss of $21 million or $0.04 per share in the year ago quarter. The results for the fourth quarter brought PSE&G Enterprise and other non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $13 million or $0.03 per share versus $20 million which also equated to $3 per share in 2017. The decline in the fourth quarter non-GAAP operating earnings/loss versus the fourth quarter 2017 primarily reflects the absence of certain tax charges at holdings taken in the fourth quarter of 2017. But were overall tax expense in 2018 as result of tax reform and higher interest expense, mostly from - mostly offset by some lower donations in 2018. For 2019, Non-GAAP operating earnings for PSEG Enterprise and other are forecasted to be $5 million to $10 million. This guidance reflects the continued PSEG Long Island results largely offset by some higher interest expense. PSEG's business mix continues to make us a beneficiary under the Tax Act of 2017 and our financial flexibility remains strong. Our net income for Power and for enterprise will realize an ongoing benefit from the decline in federal tax rate overall. However, recently updated rules proposed by the IRS could limit the amount of interest that can be deducted in a given year by non-regulated businesses. If as proposed, depreciation is excluded from the definition of adjusted taxable income in 2018 to 2019, the bonus depreciation related to the new CCGT units in service during '18 and '19 will cap the amount of deductible interest in both years. However, any amount of interest expense is disallowed can be carried forward indefinitely. And therefore, we do not expect us to have an earnings impact for us in either year. PSEG ended 2018 with $177 million of cash on hand and debt representing 52% of our consolidated capital position. Power's debt was 32% of its total capital base. And its year-end deposition was just over 2.6 times 2018 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. Given the strength of our balance sheet and internally generated cash flow from both businesses, we are able to fund our capital program and manage the cash impacts of tax reform without the need for additional equity. To recap, we're guiding to non-GAAP operating earnings for 2019 of $3.15 to $3.35 per share, a 4% increase over 2018 with nearly 75% of that amount being generated by PSE&G, our regulated utility. And the common dividend recently was increased $0.08 to the indicative level of $1.88 per share. This level represents a 58% payout of earnings at the midpoint of our 2019 guidance, and has contributed to a 4.9% annual rate of growth in the dividend over the last five years. And Julie, we are now ready for questions.
Operator:
Certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from a line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hey. So, perhaps let's just start out with some of the conversations we left off on third quarter. Can you perhaps revisit just in brief a little bit more on the Leidy Hub conversation with respect to 2019 expectations, and obviously, given substantial amount of gyrations in gas basis in the quarter here. I know you reviewed to a certain extent your power guidance already. But just how does that - what is reflected with respect to basis and how have you seen that even evolve in the last few months since the last update in November? I want to make sure we put this one to better to rest as one of these lingering concerns out there from third quarter?
Dan Cregg:
Sure Julien, I don't think we've seen a tremendous amount of change since the third quarter. I think we talked about some takeaway capacity coming from the Marcellus and having a little bit of a tightening between some of the gas bases. And that could have some compression on spot spreads. We also talked a little bit about some of the electric basis. And I think both of those things we will remain somewhat open to and are reflected in the guidance that we have provided. I think even as you look through the fourth quarter we saw a fairly consistent story with what we told in the third quarter. We did see some uptick during that quarter related to some incremental volume at power, largely weather related and also some O&M benefits. But I think what we talked about and expected in the third quarter, we've seen through the fourth quarter will continue to rely upon foot forward prices show us as we go through '19 and beyond.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it excellent. And then turn to the other side of the house on the utility for the '19 guidance. Can you talk to a little bit about the earnings components there and obviously you provide a projected rate base, but expected return and equity ratios perhaps just in brief really the returned peace implied guidance and I are you expecting to earn your authorized is basically long weighted [ph] assets.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, Julien it's Ralph. We're just two months out of our latest rate case. So we've expect to earn 9.6% on the distribution, rate base and the 1.68% on the transmission rate base at the 54% equity level. I mean the data was pretty current and the settlement was pretty current. So this - we should hit those numbers.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. And just a quick last one, just in terms of the offshore effort. There's been a lot of focus on this by your peers. But just with respect to the returns and risk profile of what you're contemplating to invest in. How - especially with respect to the risk, would it be different from just a straight equity investment in the project altogether? And obviously, this is preliminary?
Ralph Izzo:
So, again, what we've been very clear about is that we know what we know, we fortunately do know, what we don't know. And we know transmission, how to build that at a low cost and a reliable way and we understand the PJM market, but we've never built anything offshore. And we're not eager to take any significant risk on offshore construction. So that we're delighted to be part of the team in terms of them being the leading developer of offshore wind around the world. But there are certain strengths that we bring to the table that I think everybody on this call is aware of. And those areas where we're not strong, we're not going to take a big chance on.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. I'll leave it there. Thank you very much.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from line of Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Arnold:
Yes. Good morning, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi Jon.
Jonathan Arnold:
Can I just ask, if we look at the new rate base and CapEx outlook and as it often has is a little bit of a fade in the later years? Do you have a sense rather for what the likelihood is of filling some of that in and what kind of things and what the timing for some of that materializing might be, or is it too early to be having that conversation?
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Jonathan. So what I tried to spell it is that we have two major programs in front of the BPU [ph] right now, Energy Strong II and Clean Energy Future, I think an aggregate over $6 billion. And we think every penny of that would be money well spent on behalf of customers. It's not a surprise to you that typically when we work with the professionals at the BPU we don't usually get complete agreement on every dollar being - we're spending. So but I know that zero is not the right answer as well. So those two programs will have the potential to fill in some of the later years.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then just so your answer on - the question on offshore and knowing what you know, is it safe to assume that whatever you did would largely be within the [Multiple Speakers] please go ahead.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, that would not be the case, John. And it would, it would be on our unregulated side of the business that we would do that work. To the extent that there's any transmission implication that are in the utilities service territory, then that would be undertaken by PSE&G. But any connection on land or any improvements that needs to be made as a connection point would not be in PSE&G territory. So that would be a project responsibility that we could participate in. And by the way John, I think I felt it and see your timing question. We do expect to have some resolution on these two filings in the third quarter this year.
Jonathan Arnold:
To that, that would be incremental to the plan what you're talking about?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so what we've said is that based on currently approved programs we will achieve that 7% compound revenue rate. And based upon the way in which we propose the spend for the new programs, if they were fully funded, we would achieve the 9%. But remember those both of those programs take outside the timeframe of the 79% that we're proposing. So both the rate at which the money is spent and the amount of money will probably land you somewhere in between those two numbers.
Dan Cregg:
And Jon, just as we think about it in as a way of thinking about the update, we were at 7% to 9%, but really, that's all about the increased base as we're jumping off end of '18 instead of end of '19, so end of '17 I should say. So the kind of the embedded capital you can think of that as being consistent and the update is more about updating off of this one year increase rate base.
Dan Cregg:
Right.
Jonathan Arnold:
We got the math, it goes into the same place so.
Dan Cregg:
Yeah right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay and can I just one other thing just on the guidance the holdings just seems to be quite a novo number than you've been talking about and you talked about life of minus interest offset but is there something else going on in there the sort of structurally shifting holdings are a little lower, and will that continue?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no Jon, that really all it is that that the interest expense at holdings if you think about shorter term rates coming up a little bit, you're seeing some of that effect come through at the parent level. So some of the debt at the parent being shorter term is seeing a little bit of increase in rates that's all, not nothing strong.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay so we should probably just see if that continues along then?
Dan Cregg:
Yeah so that we've given you the guidance for '19 and we'll kind of go from there.
Jonathan Arnold:
I have to plug our folks we're doing a great job, so there's no issue out there. All right thank you guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Paterson from Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead with your question.
Paul Paterson:
Hey good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning Paul.
Paul Paterson:
So looking to your comments on the capacity market, and I guess sort of concerns about if the new group plans are excluded from the market or does not - through the adoption or something similar to the PGM proposal that you would still potentially have to look at closing the plant. Would there be no - what was the toll be in terms of perhaps doing a PPA or [indiscernible] might there be, if in fact there isn't an effort to delay, if in fact you were excluded from the market if you follow what I am saying, could you go back and - okay.
Ralph Izzo:
It really depends on the nature of the proposal from FERC. I mean what we rely upon is the fact that New Jersey's demonstrated a commitment to nuclear power, they have passed the legislation. So it's hard to imagine although we'll have to work out the details that FERC action which is intended to allow states to continue to choose certain resources to achieve environmental or other objectives, that mechanism would in some way preempt New Jersey's ability to pursue some options to keep the plants online. So I think we got the state saying we want these plants online, as witnessed part of legislation. FERC saying we don't want to interfere with state's abilities to do that. And now it's of course somewhere between those two broad policies statements. We'll just have to wait and see what the order from FERC looks like to figure out the metallics of how we achieve both of those objectives but I've got to believe that those objectives are sincere and we've demonstrated an ability in the past to meet policy objectives when they are articulated as clearly as those two are.
Paul Paterson:
But then clearly the BPU or the State of New Jersey, I guess more generically could just simply arrange a situation where the carve load would simply to be provided capacity payment in lieu of that sort of mimicking what's the PSE&G capacity market would have provided if you were part of it, do you follow what I'm saying still.
Ralph Izzo:
I know and that's actually true right I just I wouldn't want to be so presumptions as to say what the BPU will give except to say that the policy objectives of the state are very clear and the BPU has a lot of professional expertise that will want to weigh in on what I think the right and creative solutions to meet that objective. And we'll certainly we're it's hard as we can to make sure the state achieves its goal.
Paul Paterson:
Okay great and then on the energy efficiency and the legislation and then your move towards meeting those goals what should we think about in terms of the retail sales growth in New Jersey, going forward from here is that negative 2% what we should be thinking about or how should we be thinking on that?
Ralph Izzo:
No, so I think that 2% decline was off of a base year I forget the year was. So I think we saw that 0.6% increase this year. So there's going to be some netting and I don't think it should be 2% plus the incremental increase. Remember Paul I know you know this but figuring for an opinion. The utility growth is not about low drugs right our utility growth is about an aging infrastructure that is in desperate need of replacement. And then on top of that new technology is needed to achieve some of the policy objectives in particular the climate objectives of the state. So I'm not going to say that we're completely indifferent to what the load does but that's really not at the heart and soul nor the foundation of what the utilities operations or investment or financial performance will look like in the future.
Dan Cregg:
Sure. Sure, as is trying to get to the better market picture. Just and then I think you might have said that that would offset sort of build increases as well. Was that an offset from the cost to achieve for the energy efficiency, or is that just sort of - I mean how should we think about customer bills? I know you guys are concerned about that and looking at on that and how should we think about that in terms of your forecast?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, so the first of all, the rate case resulted basically no net change in customer bills because of the way which, we will flow back to customers our tax benefits and we still are about 30% below for an average residential customer, though where we were in 2008. But the EE program is specifically proposed to regulate. Now they have a lot to say about when they agree with a proposal to - even those customers recording good cost control is too burdensome, right? So we've targeted low income customers, critical assets like hospitals that serve the public at large, municipal facilities, government facilities, schools, things of that nature. So we fundamentally do believe that the bill is what matters not the rate. And that there are some customers even in this reduced the bill environments that we've been operating under for the past decade that struggle. And so we've taken our best shot at it, thanks for the people, who we think we can help and I'm sure that we'll have a great conversation with the staff, over the next few months, whether they agree with that or if they'd like to see it directed differently.
Paul Paterson:
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning,
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning Greg.
Greg Gordon:
Circling back to Julian's question, it just would appear on basic rate based math, just looking at the slides and taking that income and dividing it into rate base that the ROE would appear to be a bit higher than the authorized return. But I presume that we're missing things like earnings on AFEDC and other adjustments that you have to make to walk back down to a regulatory ROE. Is that Is that a fair summary? Because if you just do the arithmetic it seems high.
Dan Cregg:
Yeah. Not seeing your exact math. But I think that's right, there's a regulatory ROE that ultimately just came out of the rate case that we had and we're moving into that now. So I think if it's a pretty clean number right now and then as we go through time we'll continue to move forward.
Ralph Izzo:
So Greg, every time we have this call we always sort of come out of here was like okay that makes sense we understood. That's the second question on earning ROE's always that is two questions too many, I just don't know where it's coming from. I mean, if you are looking at this room right now, you see nothing but some really confusing political faces. So we're fighting every day to control O&M to make sure we earned that allowed ROE. So I don't know where that's coming from. But no, we just came out of a rate case and we are at our allowed earnings. And somehow we have to figure out how to increase salaries 3% this year with demand growing, but 26% and still earn that allowed ROEs.
Greg Gordon:
I understand, I'll figure it out. My second question.
Ralph Izzo:
That too could be, if you look at the rate base, you got a transmission component. Right, you got an ASP on applied service business, which is a piece of it, you got some different treatment for some of the clauses, some of the Reg E clauses. So that may be coming into play. And I think we can work through the math and bring it back to an understanding as to where we are with it.
Greg Gordon:
Yeah, that I'm sure that's going to be easy to do that. The second question was on the power side. The increase in fuel costs, that sort of compressed the spark spread in Q4. Has there been some sort of a structural change in basis on, deliver gas to your plants that we need to sort of extrapolate forward or was that just demand driven, sort of surge in pricing that it will just that was more weather and demand volatility
Ralph Izzo:
To that, Greg, I'd say there is a little bit of both, I think what we saw in the third quarter, and we talked about some of the weather related aspects, if you look at where things were for most of November, and the first half or so of December, we also had some pretty cold weather and the back end of December, you start to run into holiday. So I think if you look at aggregate monthly or quarterly data, it may blur a little bit about the fact that when you have more of your core demand going on, you had higher weather during that period. And so that's going to pull a little bit more on that price comparison that you see in addition to some of the takeaway capacity. So I think some of it is structural that we saw within that kind of the back half of 2018 and some of that is going to be more weather and demand oriented as well.
Greg Gordon:
Okay final question Ralph if FERC comes back and rules that the units specific FRRR option is in fact part of the portfolio of options that PJM needs to use going forward to run its market would you go to the New Jersey government and say you'd like to pursue the full FRRR option to remove your units from PGM or would you consider other avenues?
Ralph Izzo:
I think it's safe to say we would consider a bunch of different avenues at that point. Like I would not at all want to use a thing that would exclude that possibility but we could still bid it, who knows we would take a look at that and we would consider other options as well.
Greg Gordon:
Okay so you wouldn't preclude pursuing the FRRR option but you'd look at the whole decision before you make the call?
Ralph Izzo:
That's correct.
Greg Gordon:
Okay thank you Ralph take care.
Ralph Izzo:
Take care.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Thanks good morning. First just a quick question on FERC. Do you have any updated trends on timing of when they might make a decision? On capacity yeah.
Ralph Izzo:
You know, Steve I mean our visits to FERC really has suggested they are struggling with the capacity market decision. I had the sense that fast start might happen sooner but September 30 I thought it was 2018, I don't - I have come in across the smart allocation to do that. So I have kind of stopped predicting timing on FERC as well.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay and then I guess Ralph high level strategic question so if you look at New Jersey is obviously moving to kind of a trend toward want a clean energy efficiency offshore wind et cetera and then if you look at New England states a lot of them are also doing the same thing so what how does that kind of are you thinking strategically more about the Power business in context of that. What does that mean?
Ralph Izzo:
Absolutely so the question is what's the environmental footprint of the fleet and how does it fit in that and then quite honestly given market structures that dispatch on a short run marginal cost basis, and an increased willingness on the part of policy makers to fund the capital needs of assets that then lead into that market of zero you have to pay very serious attention to it what that means to the dispatch queue and the profitability of plans in the future. So we've taken some actions as you know Steve, we've shut our ACGT units we shut Hudson, Mersa so we're going to be shutting our Bridgeport coal facility, we've got some pretty impressive heat rates on our gas plants and we are looking at some roll in offshore wind. But there's no doubt that one has to look at the Power business in the context of an increasingly clean energy future.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides from GS. Please go ahead your line is open.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys just Dan real quick question on 2019 earnings expectations at the utility at E&G the growth rate if I just take actual in '18 versus 2019 is a pretty significant growth rate at even they appears higher than your rate base growth. San you just kind of walk me through the puts and takes is there something unusual what tax is there and can you mention what tax rate that assumed or is there something unusual that happens in '18 outside of the $0.04 or $0.05 from tree trimming we ought to think about?
Dan Cregg:
No I think maybe just if you put into big buckets you've got your rate base growth that that's going to be part of it but you also have a rate relief component that's going on the distribution side. So if you think about a relatively flat overall rate case settlement you've got an increment to your base rates that that's come through and then you got that being offset by some tax flow backs and that tax pieces is more balance sheet oriented taken deferred taxes and flowing to back through cash and the base rates are more of that survives. I think you're going to get a little bit of the benefit coming through there in addition to what you're seeing from an investment and an overall rate basis perspective. So I look at those two components as being some of what's driving the delta as you look year-over-year.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And Ralph. Just curious, I want to come back on the offshore wind piece? If you take an equity stake in the project. How do you shield yourself from long-term construction risk, I mean - we know the Europeans have built a lot of offshore when there's been one or - a small project built here. But there's not the same infrastructure and supply chain and some of the other kind of items that are necessary to build out lots of the first of a kind, large scale offshore wind here. How you kind of protect yourself from material construction, risk, because you never really been a company that's like to take that kind of risk.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean, with all due respect, Michael, we're not in a position of kind of have a negotiation here, resource through you. But I mean, at the end of the day, if you can't shield yourself, than the ultimate wisdom is don't invest, right. So we have some incredibly talented engineers and we have some equally talented contracts people and the lawyers that if they can't figure it out and the ultimate protection is we don't participate.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you Ralph much appreciate it.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you. So thanks everyone for joining us today and thank you for your continued interest and presumably confidence in us. We will be on the road next few days and next few weeks we look forward to seeing you in some of our upcoming meetings and conference appearances. And in the meantime at the risk of stating the obvious, rest assured we're going to continue to work hard and smart every day and we're going to meet the needs of customers in a safe reliable economic and environmental protective way. And we think we do that which we've been pretty good at. And our shareholders will realize a fair returns an allowed return. On the infrastructure vessels we've been making that allows us to achieve that best in class service level. So thanks everyone and we'll talk real soon. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. And thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Natalia, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Tuesday, October 30, 2018, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern on Thursday, November 8, 2018. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Carlotta Chan. Please go ahead.
Carlotta Chan:
Thank you, Natalia. Good morning, and thank you for participating in our earnings call. Earlier today, PSEG released earnings statements for the third quarter of 2018. These materials, including the release, attachments and accompanying slides detailing operating results by company, are posted on the IR website at investor.pseg.com. Our 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2018, will be filed shortly. The earnings release and other matters we will discuss during today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We will also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, which differ from net income as reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and are included in today’s slides and in our earnings release. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Operating Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Carlotta, and thank you all for joining us today. PSEG reported solid results for the third quarter and through nine months. We are updating full year non-GAAP operating earnings guidance by narrowing the range to $3.05 to $3.15 per share, with an increased contribution from PSE&G, balancing lower expected results at PSEG Power and the parent. The midpoint of our guidance remains unchanged and continues to represent a 6% increase above 2017 full year results. This morning, we reported net income for the third quarter of $0.81 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.95 per share versus net income of $0.78 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.82 per share in the year-ago period. Third quarter net income and non-GAAP operating earnings improved by 4% and 16%, respectively, over 2017’s third quarter comparables. Our results for the quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the nine months to $2.56 per share, an 8% increase over the $2.36 per share earned in the nine months ended September 30, 2017. Slides 6 and 7 summarize the results for the quarter and the year-to-date periods. Now throughout a very hot summer, both PSE&G and Power performed well. Therefore, our financial results reflect solid contributions from both businesses. PSE&G’s earnings increased by $0.05 per share, up 10% over third quarter 2017 results, driven primarily by continued investment in Transmission and Distribution programs focused on increasing system resiliency and reliability. Warmer-than-normal weather increased electric demand for air conditioning throughout an extended summer that was the second hottest in nearly half a century. Expanded investment in Transmission and Distribution infrastructure continues to benefit customers and have a favorable impact on PSE&G’s rate base and earnings. We are on pace to spend $2.8 billion for the year, and the utility’s rate base is forecasted to grow to almost $19 billion at year-end. Based on our various investment programs, we remain comfortable with PSE&G’s ability to achieve growth in rate base within our forecasted 8% to 10% per year for the five year period ending in 2022. We have made significant progress to date in our regulatory and policy partnerships. PSE&G recently filed several Clean Energy Future investment programs totaling $3.6 billion over six years. These filings continue the alignment of PSE&G’s capital investment plans with New Jersey’s energy policy goals by advancing a broad range of programs in Energy Efficiency, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure and Energy Storage. The inclusion of what we are calling Energy Cloud, or AMI, is consistent with the BPU’s recommendations for improving storm response following the March 2018 nor’easters in which they directed each utility to submit a plan and cost-benefit analysis for the implementation of AMI, focusing on reducing customer outages and outage durations. PSE&G’s filing is designed to create an advanced technology network and upgrade 2.2 million electric meters to smart meters by the year 2024. In addition, Energy Strong II, the proposed $2.5 billion, five year extension of our infrastructure reliability and resiliency investment program, is pending at the BPU. Inclusive of the AMI initiative, PSE&G’s 2018 to 2022 capital spending forecast range is $12 billion to $16 billion. I now want to bring you up-to-date on PSE&G’s Distribution base rate case proceeding. As you may be aware, at its regular meeting yesterday, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved the settlement agreement between PSE&G, BPU staff and rate counsel. This concludes the utility’s first Distribution rate review since 2010 and is expected to provide PSE&G’s customers with rate stability while allowing us to achieve three important outcomes
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. As Ralph said, PSEG reported net income for the third quarter of 2018 of $0.81 per share, and that’s versus net income of $0.78 per share in the last year’s third quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2018 were $0.95 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.82 per share in last year’s third quarter. And a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter and nine months can be found on slides 6 and 7. We’ve also provided you with a waterfall chart on Slide 11 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by each business. And a similar chart on Slide 13 provides you with the changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. And I’ll now review each company in more detail, starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $0.54 per share for the third quarter of 2018. That’s compared with $0.49 per share for the third quarter of 2017. Results for the quarter are shown on Slide 15. Net income growth in the third quarter was driven by continued investment in Transmission and electric and gas distribution facilities as well as the impact on sales of weather conditions, which were substantially warmer than both the year-ago quarter as well as normal conditions. Returns on PSE&G’s expanded investment in Transmission added $0.02 per share to net income in the quarter. Incremental revenue associated with recovery of PSE&G’s Energy Strong and the Gas System Modernization Program added $0.02 per share. Favorable weather comparisons year-over-year added $0.03 per share, and higher volume and demand added $0.01 per share. Changes to the accounting treatment of the non-service component of pension and other postretirement benefits, or OPEB expenses, resulted in a favorable $0.02. And these positive items were partially offset by an increase in operating and maintenance expense of $0.02 per share, driven by higher corrective maintenance work; higher depreciation expense of $0.02 per share, reflecting higher plant balances; and higher interest, taxes and other of $0.01 per share. As Ralph mentioned, electric sales reacted favorably to hot summer weather, and actual sales increased by 6% over 2017’s mild third quarter. The THI, or temperature humidity index, was 35% greater than in the year-ago quarter and 25% warmer than normal. PSE&G reached a 2018 system peak of 9,978 megawatts compared to 2017 system peak of 9,567 megawatts. On a trailing 12-month basis, weather normalized electric sales were flat year-over-year. And gas sales on a similar basis increased 1.9%, led by the commercial sector and strong second quarter results. The conclusion of PSE&G’s distribution rate review achieved several regulatory priorities, mainly the recovery of an on investments made since 2010 outside of the programs with cost base recovery, in addition to the recovery deferred storm costs dating back to 2011 and a true-up of sales and cost estimates. New rates are based upon a distribution rate base of $9.5 billion, a return on equity of 9.6% and a 54% equity ratio. We are pleased that the settlement recognized the need to maintain solid utility credit metrics following the negative cash impacts that resulted from tax reform in 2017 as PSE&G’s financial flexibility is essential to providing reliable service at the lowest cost. Going forward, PSE&G’s Distribution investment programs will adopt a new ROE rate and equity percentage established in the settlement agreement. As Ralph mentioned, the net $13 million revenue reduction takes into account an additional $212 million in annual revenues, including storm cost recovery and an increase in depreciation expense, as well as a flow back to customers of $225 million in tax savings largely due to tax reform. PSE&G customers will benefit from $262 million in annualized rate reductions to reflect savings from federal tax reform enacted in 2017. PSE&G filed to two updates earlier this month to its formula rate for Transmission at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The first was an annual update reflecting our planned capital improvements with a focus on system reliability, and that provides for a $100 million increase in annual Transmission revenues. The second filing adjusts our formula rate to provide a refund of our excess deferred income taxes due to federal tax reform, resulting in a refund of over $150 million. Both of these changes are expected to be effective January 1, 2019. Our distribution infrastructure programs, Energy Strong and GSMP, continue to perform as expected. The combined annual revenue increase for the full year in 2018 from these two programs is forecast to be approximately $53 million as we near completion of the first GSMP and Energy Strong programs. Once GSMP II begins, gas rates will adjust in December and June of each year. PSE&G has invested approximately $2.3 billion for the nine months ended September 30 in electric and gas Distribution and Transmission capital projects. For the full year, PSE&G expects to invest approximately $2.8 billion on increasing system reliability and resiliency, upgrading critical infrastructure and supporting New Jersey’s energy policy goals. We continue to expect rate base growth at a CAGR of 8% to 10% over the 2018 to 2022 period. For the full year, we’ve increased PSE&G’s forecast of net income for 2018 to reflect the impact of higher sales margins largely due to weather, with the range now forecast to be $1,055,000,000 $1,070,000,000, up from a $1 billion to $1,030,000,000. Now let’s turn to Power. PSEG Power reported net income of $125 million or $0.25 per share for the third quarter of 2018 compared with net income of $136 million or $0.27 per share in the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.39 per share for the third quarter of 2018 compared to non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2017 of the $0.31 per share. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2018 was $360 million versus non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for 2017 of $356 million. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation and amortization. The earnings release and Slide 21 provide you with detailed analysis of the impact of Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. We’ve also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and the first nine months of the year on Slides 22 and 23. Power’s net income in the third quarter was impacted by a decline in average energy hedge prices and lower realized margins despite the effect of warmer-than-normal weather on demand and output. During the quarter, non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons increased $0.05 per share as a result of the higher capacity prices in New England and PJM. The increase in capacity prices occurred on June 1 of 2018 and will run through May 31 of next year. Recontracting of hedges at lower prices and the market impact of lower spark spread in PJM East reduced results by $0.10 per share compared with the third quarter of 2017. Power experienced a $7 per megawatt decline in its average hedged energy price during the third quarter, which is consistent with our expectations for the full year. The impact of placing the Keys and Sewaren combined cycle stations in service, along with higher demand, boosted generation volumes by $0.06 per share. Higher O&M expense of $0.01 per share reflects new unit start-up expenses at Keys and Sewaren. And higher depreciation of $0.02 per share and a higher interest expense of $0.02 per share both relate to the new combined cycle units placed in service versus the year-ago quarter. And these impacts will continue to affect year-over-year comparisons in coming quarters given the in-service of Keys, Sewaren and, ultimately, Bridgeport Harbor five next year. A reduction in the corporate tax rate from federal tax reform, combined with the impact of less taxes due to year-over-year – from lower pretax income, improved net income comparisons by $0.07 per share. The anticipated benefit from the remeasurement of tax reserves associated with the nuclear carryback claim and the closure of IRS audits for the year 2011 and 2012 added $0.06 per share compared to year earlier results. These tax benefits were slightly offset by a $0.01 per share impact related to a newly enacted New Jersey surtax. Now let’s turn to Power’s operations. Output of Power’s generating stations increased 24% in the quarter, reflecting the higher output of the combined cycle fleet with Keys and Sewaren in commercial operation. Power’s gas-fired combined cycle fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 68% and produced 7 terawatt-hours of output during the third quarter of 2018, up by 88% over the year-ago quarter, primarily reflecting the production of the two new units. Pennsylvania coal generation output also improved to 1.3 terawatt-hours and operated at 79% capacity factor in the quarter. For the year-to-date period, Power’s nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 93%, producing 23.7 terawatt-hours and representing 57% of Power’s total generation. Gas prices improved in the third quarter on low storage levels and weather-driven demand, but power prices didn’t move up in conjunction with gas, putting pressure on Power’s spark spreads. Power’s forecast of total output for 2018 has been raised modestly to 54 to 56 terawatt-hours from last quarter’s reduced estimate of 53 to 55 terawatt-hours. For the remainder of 2018, Power has hedged 80% to 85% of total forecasted production of 13 to 15 terawatt-hours at an average price of $37 per megawatt-hour. For 2019, Power has hedged 70% to 75% of forecasted production of 58 to 60 terawatt-hours at an average price of $36 per megawatt-hour. For 2020, Power has hedged 40% to 45% of output forecasted to be 62 to 64 terawatt-hours at an average price of $36 per megawatt-hour. The forecasted output for 2018 to 2020 includes generation associated with Keys and Sewaren as well as the mid-2019 commercial startup of the 485-megawatt, gas-fired combined cycle unit at Bridgeport Harbor. In addition, Power has decided to exit the retail electric marketing business after determining it would not provide a material enhancement to its hedging activity. Power has, therefore, ceased taking on new customers but will continue to meet all obligations to existing customers through the end of their contracts. Our forecast of Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings for 2018 and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA has been updated to $465 million to $500 million and $1,045,000,000 to $1,100,000,000, respectively, from $485 million to $560 million and $1,075,000,000 to $1,180,000,000, respectively. Now turning to PSEG Enterprise and Other. Reported net income of $9 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2018 compared to net income of $13 million or $0.02 per share for the third quarter of 2017. The decrease in net income year-over-year reflects higher interest expense at the parent, partially offset by lower taxes and other items. The forecast of PSEG Enterprise and Other’s full year 2018 non-GAAP operating earnings has been reduced to $25 million from $35 million, reflecting those higher interest costs. PSEG closed the quarter ended September 30 with $88 million of cash on its balance sheet, with debt at the end of the quarter representing approximately 51% of consolidated capital. And Power’s debt at the end of the quarter represented 34% of capital. In September, PSE&G issued $325 million of five year, 3.25% medium-term notes and $325 million of 10 year, 3.65% medium-term notes. And PSE&G also retired $350 million of 2.3% medium-term notes at maturity. And as Ralph mentioned, we’ve narrowed our guidance for full year 2018 non-GAAP operating earnings to $3.05 to $3.15 per share while maintaining the midpoint of guidance at $3.10 per share. And with that, Natalie, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question is from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Hi guys. So maybe a specific question on the quarter first and then we’ll get to all the market reform that’s taking place. But starting with Slide 24, where you highlight gas prices went up and that’s what pushed up your fuel costs, wanted to understand why that didn’t drive up power prices as well. I mean, clearly that implies some reduction in the spark spread, and wanted to understand heat rates have been coming down. So just some color on that, that’d be helpful.
Ralph Izzo:
All right. So there is strong correlation, obviously, Praful, between gas and electric prices, but it’s not perfect. One can only assume that there was some dispatching of coal that took place that keep a little bit of a lid those power prices from moving perfectly in tandem. Dan, I don’t know if you want to add to that.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I also think that the sourcing of gas matters as well, and Leidy has been a very low-cost source of gas for us, and we saw a little bit of an uptick in Leidy prices. And Leidy doesn’t necessarily drive all of the electric prices that we end up seeing. So depending upon what units are running, where the source of the gas is, you can see some different gas prices coming through. And I think that the magnitude of gas that was used during the summer for gas generation as well as coming out of a winter, where storage levels were low, it pushed gas up a little bit more for some of our units compared to what we saw from an electric pricing standpoint.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. That’s helpful. And so do you see this as a permanent kind of issue? Or is this something that happened more this quarter but is not more of a permanent issue?
Ralph Izzo:
We never had tried out just before a price curve, Praful. But we are seeing that with the opening of some pipelines that are taking Marcellus gas to regions other than the Mid – Eastern region that the basis differential between Leidy and Henry Hub is changing with prices coming up in the region; stronger pricing in M3; and if you believe historic correlations that should ultimately be reflected in power prices, but – and forward curve is predicting whatever it’s predicting right now.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Understood. And then quickly just going on to the market reform side, especially around capacity prices and capacity reform. Given all the different proposals out there, Ralph, where do you see capacity – this whole capacity reform process going? Do you see any downside risk to capacity prices through all this? And how do you see the BGS auction kind of fitting in from a legal perspective?
Ralph Izzo:
So again, what we keep anchoring ourselves to is what FERC has espoused in terms of their policy objectives, which is, A, to remove price suppression; and B, to allow states to do what they want to from the point of view of a resource designation. As I think I mentioned, our preference is the status quo. But notwithstanding an ability to preserve that status quo, we think that PJM’s offered an intelligent alternative. There are some things we would quarrel with, perhaps the – their cutoff at the 20-megawatt level versus FERC’s guidance that any and all subsidized units should be subject to reform. But if you look at the approach PJM has suggested, it does point to higher capacity prices for unsubsidized units, all other things being equal. And as you know, Praful, there are many other factors to consider. There’s transmission transport capability. There’s the demand side management. There’s how different local delivery areas break out. But nonetheless, when you remove supply, which is what PJM is proposing to do, from the setting of price, that should – that – without changing demand, as I said, all other things being equal, that should remove the price suppression for unsubsidized units. And that will set a different market price. I – it’s hard for me to see how that will be a lower market price. And as we pointed out, the ZEC legislation in New Jersey always recognized that payment, as zero emission credit payment, was for the carbon attributes of nuclear and was additive to the energy and capacity price. And the BGS auction clearly states that energy electricity will be secured at prevailing market rates for both energy and capacity. So we think that – and certainly, the output from 30 terawatt-hours of nuclear, which is what the New Jersey ZEC law targets, is well within the capacity – the overall need of BGS. I use the word capacity in the generic sense, not in the – not in our industry sense of the word. So I do think BGS can use up or consume or call for the 30 terawatt-hours of nuclear at prevailing market prices for energy and capacity without any need for legislation, which would just be a win all around, right. Then FERC get its way, New Jersey get its way and nobody – the customers are not burdened anymore than was originally envisioned in the legislation and, in fact, will achieve the savings that were envisioned in the legislation if the plants were to not operate.
Dan Cregg:
And just one reminder as well, Praful, if you think about it, the next three capacity auctions have – or the next three years, I should say, the capacity auctions have happened already. And what we will anticipate this coming April will be a determination related to ZECs for those same three years. So this – all that we’re talking about is an important effort that’s got to go on. And the next thing to look for, reply, comments, are due on the 6th of November, but this will all impact the period after those three years.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. very helpful for the color thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning. So maybe perhaps to follow-up on Praful’s question. Just back to the forward hedges that you all disclosed in your slide. I mean, obviously, you had some impacts on sparks here in the latest quarter. Can you elaborate, is that reflected in your expectations of realized energy prices in the hedges at this point? Or is it too much of noise?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I mean, to the extent that hedges were put on during that period, you would see it in the hedges. And as you know, we have kind of a mix within the intermediate combined cycles section of the overall fleet of some elements that are open and some that are hedges. But to the extent that those hedges are put on, I’d say the only difference really is that you’re going to see the effect coming through the forward markets as opposed to just in the real-time and day-ahead markets. But it’s been a consistent phenomenon across both.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. But maybe to be clear about it, your expectations going forward with respect to what you saw transpire in the spark spread in the latest quarter, I mean, is this more of an acute issue that you saw during the quarter? Or how do you think about that from an ongoing impact?
Dan Cregg:
Well, I think there are both shorter-term and longer-term impacts, right. So if you think about a couple of things that Ralph and I already have talked about, I’ve talked about having some more extreme weather in the summer, having some lower inventory levels that need to be bought in, which is going to have an upward pressure on pricing. And Ralph talked about on the longer term as you see some takeaway capacity coming into the market, that’s going to have a longer-term effect. So I think you’ll continue to see both shorter-term and longer-term impacts impacting market prices.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And did that have any bearing on the decision on the retail side at this point?
Ralph Izzo:
No, the retail side was, as you know, Julien, always a defensive plan now primarily targeted at trying to reverse some of the losses we’ve been realizing on – from the point of view of wholesale market basis differentials. With the start of the Keys plant, with the strengthening of gas prices in the M3 zone, we’ve seen some decrease from basis to our fleet, and the margins were so thin on the retail business. As you know, I’ve never been a huge fan of it that we just decided that it can – was not in our best interest to continue to pursue it.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. And then if you could clarify the comments on capacity. It seems that you’re thinking is there is no need for legislation. Can you talk about timing for any potential? I suppose it would be a BPU-led effort to change BGS procurement relative to the implementation of MOPR. It would seem as if, and you tell me if this is correct, that there would not be application of MOPR for New Jersey next year, and that would give you some runway to be able to implement for a 2020 auction?
Ralph Izzo:
So remember, BGS typically follows the RPM auction in terms of the energy year applicability. So the RPM auction that would have taken place in April but is now going to take place in August is input to the BGS auction that will take place in 2020. So we have plenty of time, right. As Dan pointed out for the next three years, capacity prices are known, BGS has been layered in to the tune of 100% next year, 2/3 the year after, 1/3 the year after that. So the timing of all this is that the PJM proposal would only apply if we did get the ZEC. We’ll find out if we get the ZEC in April. And at that point in time, assuming we get the ZEC and assuming that the PJM proposal goes in as accepted, we have a full 10 months to get the BGS auction right. Of course, we would do it much in advance so that typically, the LDCs put their comments in, in the fall for what BGS rule changes should take place, if any, in the following winter. So the way to think of this is January, FERC rules on the PJM proposal, we make comments shortly thereafter, FERC finalizes the RPM auction in the April time frame, we find out whether or not we get a ZEC in the same time frame, the auction takes place in August. In the fall, we – if we are a ZEC recipient and if the auction has taken place per the MOPR approach, we would file with other LDCs for BGS to be the entity that secures the nuclear energy and capacity for the following February. So that was a long-winded way of saying I think the timing will work just fine.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Actual thank you all.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, good morning all. I’m sorry to circle back to Power, but I just wanted to see if maybe we could get a clarification on why we saw you lower the guidance range now. Because to the extent that you knew you were hedged at lower prices, right, that was a known factor that impacted the guidance range, and there was only a small portion of your combined cycle and peaking generation that was open to the market, and even though we know spark spreads were lower, it doesn’t seem like there’s enough volume there on an open basis to swing your numbers by the magnitude that the guidance range was reduced. So can you just – is it possible for you to be a little bit more granular on just how much of this was known and how much of this was unknown? Because going into the second quarter – going into the third quarter from the second quarter, realized spark spreads were not very different from what the forward curve was telling us.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, Greg. And you’re right. So if you think about it as just a pure open volume and the delta on the open volume, you can have some impact, but it’s not going to be as much as what you saw. I think that there’s a couple other factors that are coming into play. One is that just our out and out volume amounts are down a little bit. So if you think about where we had them pegged at the beginning of the year and where they ended up, they’re down about 1 terawatt-hour. So we’re down a little bit on volume. And then the other factor is some of the basis differentials that we end up seeing. And we have seen some lower Eastern basis. We’ve talked about that a fair a bit of late. And that comes through on an awful lot of our hedges are not perfect hedges at the exact generator bus where the generator is generating. To the extent that our hedges are at the West hub, there is a little bit of an openness on that basis, and we’ve seen some deterioration of the basis as well within the hedges. So I would point to those other factors as well to think about, in addition to just the pure open position times at delta spark. And the accumulation of those factors would get you to the delta that we’re talking about.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So that basis is basically what it cost you to move the power to the hub where you’re hedged?
Dan Cregg:
That’s right. So for instance, if you think about our nuclear facilities, you’ve got a lot of volume coming out of there, but you don’t have a lot of ways to transact at the nuclear location. So if you’re going to put a forward sale on – for example, you might put in on at the Western hub. And to the extent that you saw a basis differential move between the Western hub, where your hedge was put on, and where the actual generation is at nuclear, you’re going to have some openness within a hedged amount of volume.
Gregory Gordon:
Great. One last follow-up. The $0.06 that you booked on the mark-to-market associated with – I forget exactly what it was, was it pension or associated with the nuclear...
Dan Cregg:
Yes, yes.
Gregory Gordon:
Trust? Was that an expected item? Or was that something that was an unexpected benefit in the quarter, the tax reserves?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, yes, yes. So what that is, that’s a – that’s not on the NDT because you mentioned trust. Really what that is, is just the more generic tax issue, generic meaning that it’s on the company’s taxes as opposed to the NDT. And it’s a carryback of losses back to an earlier year with higher tax rates, but the direct answer to your question was, yes, that was expected.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. So that was an unexpected gift that was in the guidance already?
Dan Cregg:
That’s right.
Ralph Izzo:
And Greg, just to go back to your question about the quarter versus – and Dan’s accurate answer about some of the cumulative impacts, I mean, at the risk of stating the obvious, when we initially give guidance at the beginning of the year, we give a range, and we expect to be somewhere in the middle. Otherwise, we would advise them as one way or another. And typically, during the second quarter, we try not to change that because it’s still early. There’s a half year to go. It’s not unreasonable to assume that we saw some creep of Power, as Dan mentioned, in terms of the volume reduction towards the lower end of that range but still within the range; and the utility towards the upper end of that range but still in the range; and then the third quarter just resulting in the need to redesignate the ranges. So long-winded way of saying I wouldn’t assume that all of the movement in Power or, for that matter, the utility occurred in the third quarter. That’s not the case.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay, yes, that was my intuition. I just wanted to make sure I understood it. I appreciate you clarifying. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi Good morning guys. So just I wanted – along the lines of just where Greg was going, I – when we look at the fourth quarter guidance now for Power and where you were through the nine months, I know – the low end suggests that you might have as low a quarter as a $20 million quarter in Q4. It just seems that, that would be unusually low for you. So I’m just curious, is that some of the same issues sort of working into Q4 as well? Or is there something else by Q4 that’s kind of in the plan that we maybe need to remember?
Dan Cregg:
No, I think you can just kind of do the math over where we are now and what the range would imply. And I think you’d be north of the number that you gave. But maybe one thing to keep in mind, there was some tax benefits that came through, more of a onetime, in the last year’s fourth quarter. So if you just go against that as a comparison, your – you’ll have to carve out some of the onetime items as you look at the two quarters compared to one another. So it’s something to keep in mind in that regard. But you do have a couple shorter months in the fourth quarter, and you also have a lot of the outages that were going on during some of those shorter months. So you get some variability as you go year to year.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then on – just could I ask on investment capacity? That slide was, in the Analyst Day deck, at somewhere sort of between, I guess, in the sort of high single 100s of millions. And it was also in the September deck. And I guess with the rate case settlement and the Transmission rate adjustments now in hand, is that still a good number? Or is there some – is there an update there?
Ralph Izzo:
So we’ll update that in a week or so, Jonathan, rather than trying to give that piecemeal here today.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay will guess see you then, thank you guys.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Christopher Turnure with JPMorgan.
Christopher Turnure:
Good morning. I think, Ralph, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the importance of decoupling to your long-term plan and New Jersey customers. Can you give us a sense as to what kind of might have been missing from the negotiations with intervenors and if there’s any kind of partial agreement heading into your energy future filing?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Chris, that was – so first of all, I can’t give you the details as to a settlement discussion because those are all confidential, but we can give you details on the outcome of that. However, it’s not – it won’t come as a surprise to you to know that the principles in a base rate case are different than the principles – and I’m referring to participants here – than in a strictly energy efficiency conversation. So it’ll – the Clean Energy Future filings will have a greater percentage of people who are interested in seeing that – the green energy agenda of Governor Murphy being advocated and pushed forward. And that will, therefore, have the kind of center stage that’s appropriate to it, which may not have been more expected in a base rate filing.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay, that’s helpful. And can you give us a sense as to what some of the other mechanisms might be there if it’s not an outright decoupling mechanism?
Ralph Izzo:
I’d rather not go into that now since we haven’t even sat down and gotten the discovery questions from the other parties. But there’s all sorts of stuff that one can do to get contempering this type of recovery of both – of investments being made as well as trueing up for what might have been anticipated to be revenues versus what’s realized and revenues either in six months or annual filings or things of that nature. So...
Christopher Turnure:
And then...
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Okay?
Christopher Turnure:
Yes. My second question was on weather versus normal on the utility side. Can you quantify that for the quarter or the year-to-date? And then just related on the corporate side, anything changed versus your original plan there other than just the interest rate on new debt?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. So I can point you to the slides. If you take a look, you’ve got a breakout both of weather in particular as well as on volume and demand sometimes can come into play there. So on the weather for the year-to-date for the utility, you can see we had about $0.04 delta, $0.03 of that in the quarter. And volume and demand was about $0.02 year-to-date and about $0.01 in the quarter. So you can see it broken out pretty cleanly within the slides that we provided. And then your question on interest, basically what we’re seeing mainly at the parent is just the increase in some of the shorter-term debt that exists up there as we’ve stepped through the year, which has put a little bit of pressure on the aggregate numbers at the parent.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. And then just on those weather numbers, were those year-over-year or were those versus normal?
Dan Cregg:
Those are year-over-year.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. Any sense as to versus normal? Or is that something we could take offline?
Dan Cregg:
It’s pretty close. I think you might have seen just a little bit of an uptick because the 2017 summer was a little bit milder. But they’re almost the same at – if you take a look at versus last year versus looking at normal.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hi guys thanks for taking my question. Real quick. If I go back to the Analyst Day and look at the PSE&G forecast capital spend, and then I think a little bit about some of the filings that you made in the last few months, how should we think about where you’re tracking and whether you think you’re likely above what you kind of highlighted back at the Analyst Day? I mean, the filings you’ve made are pretty large-scale capital projects. Are you above where that would be if all of those come through? Or are you kind of somewhere in that range? Just kind of walk us through how you’re thinking about that right now.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I mean, Mike, I think that we had GSMP II approved in April and we had our conference in May. So that was at Cannacord. I think If you really look at the major areas that we were talking about, one was Energy Strong. Energy Strong II, I should say. In Energy Strong II, we talked about putting forth a $2.5 billion filing. And in June, we put forth a $2.5 billion filing. And we said in May that we were going to put forth the Clean Energy filing of $2.9 billion. And those programs and the magnitude of those programs is – were filed as we talked about with one exception, and Ralph talked about that a little bit earlier today, is the inclusion of AMI, which was not in the filing at the time. So the programs that we filed aggregate to a capital investment of $3.6 billion versus the $2.9 billion, and you can attribute the full amount of that delta to the AMI component of that filing. Now it’s a six-year program. So if you’re trying to look at it within a five-year horizon that we normally talked about – that we talk about, you’re going to have two issues
Michael Lapides:
Meaning the 10% assumes you get full approval of both of those, of Energy Strong II and the Clean Energy filing? Or does it assume something in the middle of what you asked for versus often where you see intervenor requests come in at a slightly lower number?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, it assumes approved as filed for the periods within that five-year period, and it also assumes that there’s no other incremental programs for the balance of the five years. So if nothing else were to happen but – and we were to get every dollar as filed, we’d be at the 10%. Any reduction from as filed would lower that amount, and then anything else between now and then that is identified as incremental capital would be additive.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then one last one. How are you looking at the potential changes to Transmission spend over the next three to five years versus what you laid out? I mean, if I go back over time, what you laid out in the Analyst Day for years three and years four and beyond, the numbers actually usually, as you rolled forward a year or two, came in higher as PJM recognized the incremental needs or as you recognized an incremental need as you kind of got closer to those years occurring. How are you thinking about it now relative to what you put out back in the – at the Analyst Day?
Dan Cregg:
So is the question how does our forecast differ from our forecast?
Michael Lapides:
Well, a little bit of are you seeing incremental opportunities that may not have been embedded in the forecast?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think we’re a few months away from when we put that forward and is still how we are characterizing the five-year capital plan at this time.
Michael Lapides:
Okay. Last item, a little bit housekeeping. O&M at the utility year-over-year and sequentially was up a double-digit percentage. How much of that drops to the bottom line? Meaning, I’m just looking at the quarter.
Dan Cregg:
So for – you’re talking about for the quarter for PSE&G, the $0.02 incremental O&M?
Michael Lapides:
Yes.
Dan Cregg:
All of that $0.02 drops to the bottom line, if that’s your question.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay, got it thanks Dan.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Paul Fremont with Mizuho.
Paul Fremont:
Thanks. Looking at fast-start, I guess Exelon, I think, has put out estimates that would imply maybe less than $2 per megawatt-hour. And at your Analyst Day, I think you were in the $1 to $3 range. Are you still at the same level in terms of where your – what you’re expecting in – if fast-start is adopted?
Ralph Izzo:
So there’s two schools of thought on this, right, Paul. One is that in the aggregate, fast-start reserve margins in flexible units could be $3 to $5 with fast-start being a significant down payment on that, possibly in that $1 to $3 range. But the question is, what is the degree of – in which the forward price curve already has incorporated that if we believe that FERC is going to be issuing that decision fairly soon and PJM will be incorporating it in Q1? And I don’t know the answer to that, but that’s the two considerations you have to make, right. So should fast-start result in an increase? Absolutely. Is it already in the forward price curve? Depends on your confidence in the timing of the FERC decision.
Paul Fremont:
Great, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza:
Hi, good morning guys. You guys touched on most of the questions. Just real quick on the Clean Energy legislation versus what you proposed on Slide 17. The storage mandate versus what you’re proposing, correct me if I’m wrong, has incremental upside versus what your plan is?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I think the storage goal is like 600 megawatts by 2025 or something like that. So – and then – and it’s a big number, and we proposed 35 megawatts. So yes, there is upside there.
Shar Pourreza:
Would that be within – is that a back-end loaded? Or when do you think you’ll figure that out as far as how we should...
Ralph Izzo:
One of the conversations we’ve been having with the policy leaders is that most of these technologies, and battery storage is a great example, is something that we do believe has a healthy trajectory in terms of prices coming down in the future. So you want to both stimulate the market by the same stroke and you don’t want to pay for that market in its entirety up front. So there’s a little bit of a delicate timing of how much you do and when you do it that is an iterative conversation that we have – that we do have with policy leaders, both in the BPU and in the Governor’s office and the legislature.
Shar Pourreza:
And then, Ralph, just on – one of your peers is our talking about $5 to $10 of – per megawatt-hour of incremental cost when you layer it in with wind or sort of solar on two to four hours of sort of storage. Are you seeing figures like that? Or seeing a higher figure? Because if you use two to four, it seems like you could probably get something that’s economically viable, right?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, yes. So I’m not – I’m used to coating it in terms of capacity. And the number we use is $2 million to $3 million per megawatt. I’d have to work it backwards to see if I get to $3 to $5 per megawatt-hour. And I’d rather not do that in real time, which is short, but I will take that as a homework assignment.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, great. I’ll bother Dan later.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure.
Shar Pourreza:
And then just lastly...
Dan Cregg:
Nice, Shar.
Shar Pourreza:
What drove – no problem. What drove the lower capacity factors on your new gas assets for the third quarter? And just as a...
Ralph Izzo:
I didn’t actually – was it a Hope Creek outage? Was it like a 100% ownership of Hope Creek?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. I think they’re at 93% – we had a huge outage. It’s nothing but kind of your normal outages that occurred at the time.
Shar Pourreza:
Okay, thank guys terrific. Dan, I’ll follow up with you after the call.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Shar.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. So two questions. One, FERC has just updated its ROE – its transmission ROE methodology now. But there also seems to be some discussion about maybe changes to transmission ROE adders, what they should be actually related to. And, I mean, what are your expectations about how those ROEs will be trending and if your existing projects will be impacted?
Ralph Izzo:
So Angie, we’re following the discussion. As we understand it, ROE adders and incentives have not been ruled on yet. We do have a rising interest rate environment, and the three methodologies that FERC are using all then lead to a discussion about how does each specific company and its risk profile sit within the range predicted by those three methodologies. So I’d say that the ingredients to the stew are getting a little bit better known, but what the stew comes out tasting like still remains to be understood going forward.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay. And then so the equity layer at the utility under the rate case settlement or decision is now going to be 54%. I think you mentioned that at the end of the quarter, it was 51%. So, I mean, should I expect that there’s going to be additional equity injection into the utility? And is it going to come from basically corporate-level debt?
Dan Cregg:
No, Angie, the – our 51.2% was the stated rate from the last rate case, and our existing equity percentage was somewhere between 53%, 53.5%. So that delta is not as big as you might otherwise think. And just general corporate funds would fund that delta.
Angie Storozynski:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotia Howard Weil.
Andrew Weisel:
Hey, thanks for squeezing me, and good afternoon. We’re past the hour here. A quick first one on the PSE&G guidance for the year. The midpoint essentially went up by $0.10 on an EPS basis. When I look at the year-to-date weather benefit versus normal, that was only around $0.03. So what else is taking you ahead of the plan? And would any of that be sustainable to benefit future years?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think in addition to the area that’s just labeled weather, you’ve also got some volumes and demands, which will give you probably another $0.02 or $0.03 or so. And then there’s a couple other modest items that would end up moving it north of that. So I think two things for you. One is layer in the volume and demands incrementally to the weather amounts, which also tend to be fairly weather related. And then you think about a couple other smaller adjustments and you could get to that range.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. And those smaller adjustments, should we think of those as sort of onetime? Or will that carry through?
Dan Cregg:
I think more onetime than not.
Ralph Izzo:
I think one – another one, Andrew, just is we may be a little bit conservative on the timing of the rate case.
Andrew Weisel:
Oh, I see. Okay. Good. Then the other question I had on AMI. You mentioned the reaction to the March storms and improving reliability. My question is, can you remind us the history in the state? I believe the BPU chose not to continue a pilot program at one of your neighbors, and they instead asked you, so the utility, to file for cost-benefit analysis. I guess my question is, is it a little premature to file for the $700 million program now? And how comfortable are you that it will be approved as part of the CEF filing?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, we definitely do not think it’s premature. There is a moratorium, as you correctly pointed out, Andrew, and – but we think that there’s a couple of factors that are materially different. One is the BPU announcement seeking the cost-benefit analysis and the concern over outages, you’re right. But the second is the huge initiatives that the Governor has embarked upon to really push forward on a Clean Energy agenda. And the value of information that one can extract from Advanced Metering Infrastructure to help customers use their energy more intelligently, – translation
Andrew Weisel:
Okay. And just to clarify, I believe this is the case, but it’s certainly possible that the CEF could be approved without that. In other words, it’s not a packaged deal. Those – the pieces could be treated individually, so it might end up looking like what you had talked about at the Analyst Day? Is that right? So that’s a possibility?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Yes, that’s correct. And we didn’t go into details, but we did – CEF is really three separate filings that were all put in at the same time. But that’s correct.
Andrew Weisel:
Okay, thanks for everyone.
Operator:
We have reached the allotted time for questions. Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg, please continue with any closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Okay. Well, thank you there. So hopefully, the takeaway from this call is that the Utility and Power both have had some solid operating performance in terms of our traditional hallmark attributes
Operator:
Well, ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect, and thank you for participating.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Lebay and I’m your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, August 1, 2018 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 O'clock P.M. Eastern Time today until 11:30 P.M. Eastern Time on Thursday, August 9, 2018. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Lebay. Good morning, everyone and thank you for participating in our earnings call. Earlier today PSEG released earning statements for the second quarter of 2018. These materials including the release, financial attachments and accompanying slides detailing operating results by companies are posted on the IR website at investor.pseg.com. Our 10-Q for the period ended June 30 has been filed with the SEC. The earnings release and other matters we will discuss during today's call contain forward looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. We also discuss non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA which differ from net income as reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures and a disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements are posted on our IR website and are included in today's live and in our earnings release. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining Ralph on the call is Dan Craig, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen. And thank you everyone for joining us today. PSEG reported net income for the quarter of $0.53 per share versus $0.22 in the second quarter of 2017. We also reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.64 per share versus $0.62 in the last year's second quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter rose 3% compared with the year ago period, reflecting continued strong performance at PSE&G and effective cost control and the lower corporate tax rate at PSEG power. Solid results for the quarter bringing non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2018 to $1.61 per share. A 4,5% increase over non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.54 per share earned in 2017’s first half. For the first half of 2018, we have made substantial progress meeting our objectives for the full year. On slide 6 and 7, we summarize the results for the quarter and the first half of 2018. At PSE&G earnings increased by $0.05 per share up 12% over second quarter 2017 results. The continued investment in PSE&G transmission and distribution programs was the primary driver of earnings growth for the quarter and year-to-date periods. PSE&G has made over $3 billion in electrical gas infrastructure investments in the past 12 months. Including, increased distribution spending, as we continuously strive to upgrade New Jersey’s aging infrastructure and to maintain high levels of customer reliability and achieve high customer satisfaction scores. PSE&G reached many significant milestones during the second quarter. Successfully executing on its capital programs. PSE&G recently finished construction of the third and final phase of the $1.2 billion, 345kv Bergen-Linden Corridor or BLC as refer to it. This project improve the liability, was one of the larger and more complex projects we have built and was finished safely on time and on budget. At the completion of the BLC line, our transmission project portfolio will focus on our 69kv system upgrade program, enhance the storm hardening, as well as lifecycle replacement to maintain reliability, increase good resilience and modernize aging plant. Turning to our ongoing distribution programs. PSE&G is completing the first phase of its Gas System Modernization Program, what we will refer to as GSMP. And this is replaced approximately 500 miles of gas mains in the last three years. We will begin the work on GSMP II in 2019. This next phase, a five year $1.9 billion program was recently approved by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and will enable us to replace an additional 875 miles of aging gas mains. In early June PSE&G filed for an extension of its energy strong infrastructure program, or ES II with the BPU. The key components of the $2.5 billion five year program are outlined for you on slide 17. The request this progressing at the BPU will enable us to continue investments to hardness our system against storms, replace aging or end-of-life infrastructure. And incorporated advance technology to improve grid management. PSE&G’s pending distribution base rate cases proceeding according to the schedule, including our early stage settlement meetings with the parties held in July, which will continue until August. We public hearings across the state were recently completed in the early July, and in the next week we will file a scheduled update with financial data for the full test year ended June 30th. We also expect the BPU staff and others to file their initial testimony in the coming weeks. As a reminder, in the absence of the settlement, we have the ability to self implement interim rates this November, consistent with regulations issued by the BPU last December. The BPU recently released their investigating report conducted in response to the multiple March 2018 Nor’easters that left many customers throughout the state without power. PSENG is reviewing the BPU’s report and its recommendations for improving storm response protocols, to ensure that our procedures are continually aligned with industry best practices. Among the BPUs recommendation, each utility is to submit within 180 days, of plan with an accompanying cost benefit analysis. So the implementation of Advance Metering Infrastructure, or AMI, focusing on the use and benefits of AMI for the purpose of reducing the number of customer outages as well as outage durations during a major storm event. Also as we discussed during our recent investor conference this past May, New Jersey Governor Murphy signed infill law clean energy legislation which adopts significant new standards for energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy. PSE&G plans to submit our Clean Energy Future or CEF filing. A $2.9 billion six year proposal align with New Jersey's energy policy goals that details a broad range of planned investments in energy efficiency, electric vehicle infrastructure and battery storage. The CES program sets targets for energy efficiency savings for electric and gas usage in a cost efficient manager broadly benefit our customers by helping to lower bills and better management energy uses. PSE&G's focus remains on providing customers enhanced reliability, a resilient system supported by green energy and bills that are affordable. We look forward to making this filing in the near-term supporting the state’s energy policy goals and bringing value to our customers. New Jersey's legislation enabling Zero Emission Certificate or ZEC was also signed into law by Governor Murphy in May. The legislation closer to BPU within 230 days to establish a process for ZEC's including determining eligibility and certification of need. And ultimately selecting nuclear plants to receive ZEC's starting in April 2019. The BPU will remain nuclear plant applicants based on considerations that include fuel diversity, air quality, and other environmental attributes. PSEG Power estimates that if all three of its New Jersey, nuclear units are selected, it could be eligible to receive ZEC revenues of approximately $200 million per year. PSEG Power placed into service the keys Energy Center and fee warrant seven combined cycle unit. Adding 1,300 megawatts of clean efficient gas fired generating capacity. Construction activities are ongoing at Bridgeport Harbor 5 which we expect to bring online mid 2019. Once Bridgeport Harbors is in service, it will complete reconfiguration powers merchant generation fleet that will improve its competitiveness in the marketplace. In June of 2018, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued an or refining a PJMs current capacity market is unjust and unreasonable because it allows resources supported by out of market payments to suppress capacity prices. FERK established a new proceeding to address an alternative approach in which PJM would one, modify its minimum offer price rule, so that it would apply some new and existing resources that receive out of market payments, regardless of resource type. And two, establish an option that will allow on a resource specific basis. Resources receiving out of markets support to be removed from the PJM capacity market along with the commencement amount as load for some period of time. We are participating in this proceeding and we will continue advocating for policies at the Federal level to correct flaws in wholesale markets design that suppress prices. While striving to obtain adequate recognition of the value that fuel diversity brings to a secure, resilient and well functioning electric grid. We expect that the growth prospects or PSE&G, the reconfiguration about merchant generating fleet and successful execution of our policy initiatives will allow PSEG to extend its track record of delivering value for our customers and growth for our shareholders. We intend to maintain our strong balance sheet and credit metrics that enable us to fund PSEG's projected capital investment program of $14 billion to $17 billion over the 2018 to 2022 period without the need to issue equity and continue providing shareholders with the opportunity for consistent and sustainable dividend growth. Our non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2018 are supportive of our outlook for the full year and we are maintaining our full year guidance for 2018 non-GAAP operating earnings of $3 to $3.20 per share. With that, I will turn the call over to Dan, who will discuss our financials in greater detail and then we will join Dan at the end of the call for your questions.
Daniel Cregg:
Thank you Ralph and thanks everybody for joining us today. As Ralph said PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2018 of $0.64 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.62 per share in the last year, second quarter. A reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter can be found on slide six. We have also provided you with a waterfall chart on Slide 11 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on Slide 13 that provides you with the changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by each business, for the first half of 2018. I will now review each Company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $231 million or $0.46 per share for the second quarter of 2018 compared with net income of $208 million or $0.41 per share for the second quarter of 2017. Results for the quarter is shown on Slide 15. PSE&G’s second quarter results reflect continued successful execution of our infrastructure, investment programs and ongoing control of operating expenses. Growth in PSE&G’s investment in transmission improved second quarter net income comparisons by $0.03 per share. Revenue recovery of investments made to enhance system resiliency under the energy strong and gases to modernization programs drove improved margin in second quarter net income comparisons by $0.02 per share. Distribution O&M savings added a $0.01 per share over the second quarter of 2017 results. Changes to the accounting treatment of the non-service component of pension and OPEB expenses resulted in a favorable $0.02 per share comparison over 2017 second quarter. Partially offsetting the favorable margin items, were higher expenses related to depreciation interest in taxes that had a combined impact of $0.03 compared to 2017 second quarter. As a reminder, transmission revenues are adjusted each year based on the Company's investment program. PSE&G’s investment in transmission is expected to grow to approximately $8.6 of rate base at the end of 2018 or 45% of the Company's year-end consolidated rate base. Under Energy Strong, electric rates are adjusted twice during the year in March and September, and gas rates are adjusted each year in September. Under the Gas System Modernization Program, gas rates which are now adjusted each year in January to reflecting investment made during the prior year will move to a semiannual recovery schedule when we begin the GSMP II program in 2019. The combined annual revenue increase from 2018 over 2017 from both the Energy Strong and GSNP programs is forecast to be approximately $53 million. Economic Indicators for New Jersey continue to be generally positive, supported by gains in employment and housing data. Quarterly gas sales were higher influenced by cold April temperatures. On a trailing 12 month basis, which provides longer term trending data, weather normalized electric sales were relatively flat, while gas sales were 2.7% higher, led by demand from the commercial sector. Residential electric and gas customer growth continues to try and higher at approximately 1% per year and our forecast to PSE&G's net income for 2018 is unchanged at a $1 billion to $1,30 billion. Now let's turn to Power. PSEG Power reported net income for the quarter of $41 million or $0.08 per share, compared with a net loss of $97 million and $0.19 per share for the second quarter of 2017. 2017 included incremental depreciation and other expenses related for last June's retirement, Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2018 was $0.16 per share, compared to $0.19 per share in 2017. And non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2018 was $210 million compared to $261 million in 2017. And non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation and amortization. The earnings release and Slide 21 provide you with a detailed analysis of the impact on Power's non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. And we have also provided you with generations statistics for the quarter and for the first half of the year, on Slide 22 and 23. Power's non-GAAP results for the second quarter 2018 reflect the impact of lower market prices on re-contracting of our hedges which reduced operating earnings by $0.08 per share. Power experienced a $6 per megawatt hour decline and its average hedged energy price during the second quarter and this is consistent with our expectations for the full year. Lower volumes of $0.01 per share and higher O&M of $0.02 per share reflect the impact of Power so [quickly healing] (Ph) outage compared to the year ago outage of our 57% hometown sailing unit. An increasing capacity prices in PJM and New England, starting on June 1st improved quarter-over-quarter results by $0.03 per share and higher gas spend out as a result of cold April temperatures added a penny per share. The decline and depreciation expense related to the Hudson and Mercer coal requirements together with lower interest expense and a lower corporate income tax rate combined to improve quarterly comparisons by $0.04 for the quarter. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Generation output defined by 5% compared with the second quarter of 2017, reflecting the plan refueling outage and Hope Creek and other scheduled maintenance. Power's gas fired combined cycle fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 46% and produced 3.5 terawatt hours of output during the second quarter 2018, down by 11% over the years ago quarter reflecting outages and lower market demand. PJM coal generation output remain constant at 1.4 terawatt hours and operated at an 81% capacity factor in the quarter. And for the year-to-date period Power's nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 92.9%, producing 15.8 terawatt hours and representing 63% of Power's total generation. Gas prices were flat year-over-year and an improvement of Power prices is offset by lower market demand. Power has adjusted its forecast for expected 2018 through 2020 output to reflect current market conditions and now expects 2018 output of 53 to 55 terawatt hours, 2019 output of 57 59 terawatt hours and 2020 output of 62 to 64 terawatt hours down slightly from our earlier forecast volumes of 55 to 57 terawatt hours for 2018, 59 to 61 terawatt hours for 2019 and 63 to 65 terawatt hours for 2020. An update of Power’s hedge position is provided on Slide 25. For the remainder of 2018 Power has hedged 90% to 95% of total forecasted production of 28 to 30 terawatt hours, at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. For 2019, Power has hedged 65% to 70% of forecasted production at 57 to 59 terawatt hours, at an average price of $37 per megawatt hour. And for 2020, Power had hedged 35% to 40% of output, forecasted to be at 62% to 64% terawatt hours, at an average price of $36 a megawatt hour. Earlier this year in July, the State of New Jersey made changes to its income tax laws, including imposing a temporary sure tax on corporate taxable income of 2.5% effective January 1, 2018 through 2019 and declining to 1.5% in 2020 and 2021. The surcharge provides an exemption for public utilities and as such, PSE&G will not be impacted by this change. But for the full year 2018, the tax surcharge is expected to have a modest negative impact on results of Power and to a lesser extent on enterprise and other as each begins to accrue the surcharge, starting July 1 2018. Our forecasts of Power’s full year 2018 non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, remains unchanged at $485 million to $560 million and a $1,75 million to $1,180 million respectively. Now, let me turn to PSEG enterprise and other which reported a net loss of 3 million or a penny per share for the second quarter of 2018, compared to a net loss of $2 million for the second quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2018 were $11 million or $0.02 per share, representing no change versus the second quarter of 2017. The net loss for the second quarter of 2018 includes a pre-tax charge of $20 million related to the ongoing liquidity challenges facing Energy Rina, compared to a similar pre-tax charge of $22 million in the year ago quarter. Results this quarter also reflect higher parent interest expense offset by the lower federal tax rate at PSEG and ongoing contributions from our PSEG Long Island contract. For 2018, the forecast of PCEG enterprise and other non-GAAP operating earnings remains unchanged at $35 million. And I would like to take a moment just to recap our 2018 to 2022 capital spending plan of $14 billion to $18 billion, with approximately 90% directed to regulated growth initiatives at PSE&G. As we detailed in our investor day presentation in May, PSE&G’s five year $12 billion to $15.5 billion capital spending program supports our expected compound annual growth and rate base of 8% to 10% over the 2018 to 2022 period. The recent five year expansion of GSMP II at an approximately $1.9 billion is incorporated into the lower end of the spending and growth range at an average annual spend of approximately $350 million to $400 million which is an increase over GSMP I of approximately $75 million per year beginning in 2019. The upper end of the range as the full investment positions contained in our pending $2.5 billion Energy Strong II program. And our anticipated $2.9 billion dollar clean energy future program. That when combined, total approximately $3.5 billion through 2022. The timeframes for both Energy Strong II and our Clean Energy Future program extend beyond the 2022 horizon. So the tail end of both programs is beyond PSE&G’s 2018 to 2022 capital spending window. PSEG’s financial position remains strong. Powers free cash flow is expected to improve in 2018 with a decline in capital spending following the completion of construction at [Keys in C1] (Ph) And overall respect and improvement of PSEG's cash flow in 2018 versus 2017. PSEG closed the quarter ended June 30, 2018 with $95 million of cash on its balance sheet and debt representing 50% of consolidated capital. Power's that at the end of the quarter represented 34% of its capitalization, providing a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 times at the midpoint of Power's 2018 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA forecasts. And well within Power's solid investment grade credit metrics. And I will know that it May Standard & Poor's a firm the credit ratings of PSEG, PSE&G, PSEG Power retaining each rating outlook at stable. We continue to expect the Power's improving cash flow beginning in the second half of 2018 will be directed to supporting regulated growth investments. PSEG continues to expect no new equity to fund our current capital spending program over the 2018 to 2022 timeframe and we stand firm on our commitment to providing our shareholders with the opportunity for consistent and sustainable dividend growth that has averaged nearly 5% annually over the last few years. As Ralph mentioned, we are maintaining our forecasts and non-GAAP operating earnings for full year of $3 to $3.20 per share. And Lebay we are now ready to take some questions.
Operator:
Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith from Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hey, good morning. This is actually [Claire] (Ph) hopping in for Julien here.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Claire.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions here. So I appreciate the update on the rate case settlement negotiations. Just if you could provide a little more color on maybe progress on some of the critical issues and just anymore color you can get there?
Ralph Izzo:
Claire, it's really difficult to reveal the details of the negotiation publicly. That doesn't seem fair to the other parties. But there is a bunch of issues that we had resolved even prior to this discussion in terms of storm costs and recovery of that. But we are under confidentiality agreement with the other parties to not discussed in negotiations at this point. I think we just stick with what we said in the script that what we are engaging in dialogue, it's been constructive. Summer vacations are now interfering a little bit. And at the end of the day, everything is on schedule and we always have recourse to interim rates and nine months after filing date of January. So as much as I would like to share with you we do have these confidentiality limitations.
Daniel Cregg:
Yes, from a schedule standpoint we will provide the latest update as we step through times. So [indiscernible] I will be will be submitted on the 8th of August and things are moving according to schedule.
Ralph Izzo:
Just to reminder that our ask is a net of attached give back a 1% rate increase and we will still be 20% below where rates were and are less rate case even if we got 100% of our ask.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it and appreciate the confidentiality aspect. Well, in that case, my second question here is probably could you give a little more color on how you see in this survey the BTU complaints on transmission cost - allocation and cost inflation and how you might address that?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. Well, first of all, let's make sure everybody understands that the issue is who pays not whether we get paid, right. So PSE&G will get fully compensated for its transmission investments as per our transmission rates and there has been some back and forth between who the beneficiaries are of things like the artificial islands, fidelity improvements, [indiscernible] and its impact on the New York ISO teams. And we have been working with the BPU to obviously as advocate for a fair treatment of New Jersey customers. So we are completely aligned in what we want to see happen there. So, we obviously had a couple of, not the best outcomes from New Jersey perspective at FERC recently, but there is no gap between what we want and what the New Jersey BPU wants. And again, I will end where I started, which is, there is no issue in terms of a shareholder recovery of what has been invested.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got It. Could you give possibly one more color on some of the discussions at PJM to lower transmission costs or if there is anything could be always there.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean I think that there is two types of transmission projects that PJM has presented stuff that comes out of the ARCH, regional transmission expansion program that is generated by PJM and then there were additional non ARCH projects that have more of a local reliability component. So with that the company generate and there has been a movement at PJM which we have been supportive of to make the visibility of the justification for those projects more consistent with each other that hasn't been the case always in the past, primarily because the ARCH projects are bigger. So if you have one $750 million project like [indiscernible], you can understand why you would want to treat that different than 10. $75 million projects, like a 69 kv upgrade. But recognizing that customers and load serving entities and suppliers and all of the stakeholders at PJM have the right information, PJM has been moving towards a path of greater and greater upfront disclosure. We just have to make sure that we don't get to a point where diminishing returns where literally the eight figure project is or the seven figure project is getting the same amount of upfront time and disclosure that the nine and 10 figure projects demand that averages kind of the whole process.
Unidentified Analyst:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. Next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta, from Citi Group. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi guys. So Ralph I wanted to get your view on the total capacity reform and the FERC proposal. It sounds like if you are going to remove both demand and supply from the capacity market it probably has a negative impact or at least not a positive impact on capacity prices. So first you want to get your view on that. And secondly what does that mean for resources that are getting support like zero emission credits. Does that mean they have to go the state to kind of get that refund for the capacity that they lost? Just some color, that would really appreciated.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Praful. So, I don’t think I’m being Pollyannaish when I say that I’m quite optimistic about what could come out of this. Although we don't know what will come out of this. And let me explain why this. Its first of all, let's level set the calendar right now. Borrowing in an unusual action by FERC to claw back prior RPM options. For the next three years, we know what our financial situation is right. We have three auctions that took place and those capacity prices are set and it's by no means coincidental that the first phase of the ZEC program in New Jersey, will coincide that we deliberately talked about three year horizons for the ZEC program, because of the visibility and capacity prices and fairly high visibility of energy prices will not deterministic way capacity question. So for three years, I think where we understand our financial situation pretty well, providers are New Jersey units are indeed selected from the ZEC payments which I don't want to presume to be the case. Now let's take a look at what FERC has said the reason for doing what they are doing. Number one, they said that they want to allow states flexibility and choosing their own resources. Well, when you get 60 out of 80 votes in this assembly and 20 out of 40 votes in the Senate and the governor signed the bill, you got it you got to feel pretty good at this state wanting to support its nuclear plants. And whether that is through and FR or some other mechanism, I have a very high degree of confidence that the state recognizes the energy, capacity and environmental attributes about nuclear plants. Now the devils of the details was to how that will be actually designed and recovered. But again, from a policy point of view, that feels pretty good to me. And then when you think about who brought the complaint and why they brought the complaint. The claim is that out of market payments which by the way is not limited to ZEC's, it's [REC's] (Ph) it's regulated generation in the market today that these out of market payments were serving to suppress capacity crisis. So if the goal is to correct for that, I feel pretty good about what that means for our powerful units. So somewhere between the goals and Ralph is feeling good about the goals and getting the details right is a fair amount of work to chop extensively over the next four months by January 9th, which has all sorts of other probations that are associated with in terms of how many FERC commissioners are there, who is filing for rehearing, who isn’t filing for reach hearing, et cetera, et cetera. So I don't want to suggest that there isn't uncertainty, but there is clearly. But I think if you hold on to the stated goals to eliminate price depression for the things that are receiving out of market payments, check that box for a powerful units. And number two, allow states to support those resources that they want support, check that box for our nuclear units. There is no other boxes for us to check. So, that is where I come out of [indiscernible] right now again, for the third time, we are actively engaged in the details of how one achieve that. And that is the part that no one is able to predict at this point. Dan, I don’t know if you want to add to that.
Daniel Cregg:
No, I mean, just the only other thing I would add, if you think about the mechanics of it as well, properly, you talk about taking out the load and taking a generation, there is a reserve aspect that that would come with the load and how that gets worked through would also have an effect. But that would service if it was megawatt-for-megawatt loading generation, you absolutely would have the effect you are talking about to the extent that reserves are going to turn any kind of FRR alternative into a smaller version of what you are seeing in the market, meaning to it be with reserves. You would have a lesser impact or maybe no impact, based upon how that mass would work.
Ralph Izzo:
And not to solve the problem here. But if the removed supply is a small subsets then presumably the reserve margin needed for that smaller market would have to be comparable if not higher than what you have 160,000 megawatt 13 state region so.
Praful Mehta:
That is super helpful color. I mean and almost the depth of your answers also suggest the work the trough here and as you said, do you think that it can get done in January time frame or do you think this is kind of going to take more time?
Ralph Izzo:
Instinctively, I would say probably will take more time, but I don't want to second guess the FERC and their stated schedule, but yes, I mean we would be kidding ourselves if history wasn't some sort of feature about how long these things take on something as complicated as this.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Thanks so much guys.
Ralph Izzo:
You are welcome.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning guys. A question on, I just curious what at the Analyst Day Ralph you said that you would on the CEF filling, it already held the 30 day pre-filing and that was kind of ready to go and, you slides today say later in the year, I think you said in the near-term but either way it seems to have been held off a little bit. Can you give us any color on why that is?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure Jonathan. It’s very simple. We have got a wonderful opportunity here with Governor Murphy's passion for the types of things that are in that filing and we just want to work very closely with the front office in terms of policy alignment and you may or may not be aware of this, but June 30th is the end of the fiscal year for New Jersey. So until June 30th arrived it’s just impossible think of anything, but statewide budget conversations right. So even though Energy is important, it doesn't step in front of the state budget. So then you run into vacations. It's really just a question of being completely in sync with the policy of the administration and having a couple of things step in front of us for that, but nothing more than that. I would be surprised if it's much delayed at this point. Once we get some people back from vacation for just further detail.
Jonathan Arnold:
What you are saying seems to imply might it might involve a little bit versus what you share with us.
Ralph Izzo:
The program elements. I mean, we are determined to go in with this dollar amount. If anything this interesting, BTU comment on the importance of AMI for outage restoration could affect what we submit and that obviously would have the effect if anything, increases somewhat as opposed to decreasing.
Jonathan Arnold:
That is what I was going to ask, do you have an [indiscernible] could feel what a full deployment would costs and it sounds like you are saying that would be incremental rather than displacing something else…
Ralph Izzo:
No, you are correct. It would be incremental, rather I give that Jonathan that number Jonathan because we are just starting that conversation with BTU staff and rather not have them here for the first time in one of your reports. Even though they, they will written in wonderful reports.
Jonathan Arnold:
But, to the point of incremental instead of what is the…
Ralph Izzo:
I would think, it would be more incremental.
Daniel Cregg:
We don't want it to take away from the other side.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay.
Ralph LaRossa:
From a dollar amount standpoint as well, Jonathan. If you look at the spend that has been identified that we have been talking about that does align with the EE savings objectives that are laid out within the legislation, so that should hold fairly steady to get the savings that we need and having the spend that we have talked about.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Than just a one other topic if I may. Dan you mentioned the forecast output Power. I'm just curious if you could give us a little more color behind the -- why the changes in 2019 and 2020?
Daniel Cregg:
Yes. I think Jonathan it’s a little bit of what we are seeing from a market demand perspective right now, and also a little bit related to whether or not the units are running through the night, and whether there is some [indiscernible] that is going on. So just, they moved from time-to-time and they remain estimates. And as we step through 2019 and 2020, we will continue to keep an eye on it. But the early indications now is that there is a little bit more downward pressure than up. So we are just providing that from the standpoint of our forecasts that output.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Gregory Gordon from Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
Gregory Gordon:
Hey, good morning. Actually uncertainty upon uncertainty but in addition to the 206 remains the capacity market and the Power markets are as was sort of first articulated in the last answer to the last question pretty low and more upon pricing lies but we have got this fast start pricing decision pending. There also seems to be a continued desire or on the part of PJM leadership to address the overall pricing model from an energy perspective. So it seemed to me that the revenue model for Power does have a lot of uncertainty on both size of the equation capacity and energy? But it would seem to me that they are both bias to the upside, but I don't want - rather than bias or answer I would like to hear what you think about the momentum for energy price for form as well both fast-start? And if a momentum can be reestablished on the [indiscernible] reform?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, I think what we are hearing is a fast-start chain and should be implemented as beginning of 2019 and then the broader inflexible unit aspects of price formation, PJM is committed to filing something at the end of this year. So I would agree with you Greg. My sense and this is not - it’s just that is that there has been enough delays in false-starts that it's hard to believe that either or both of those are fully baked into the full price curve at this point. So that would suggest that there is more upside I mean if the fast-start unit as lots of surprise, that is a good thing right and inflexible units fast-start surprise that is a good thing. But, I would be less than wholly accurate if I didn't say that when we last met at EEI I thought that it would happen around this time. At least PJM was saying we are not there yet. So there has got to be some degree of discounting going on and the full price curve. But we don't have just the full price preview, we do have a range of changing that we allow ourselves to gravitate up or down within some boundaries, but so short answer is yes, I would agree. There is some upside, but the delays of the past fully account where I think some of the steps moving that might not the fully price this into the forward curve.
Gregory Gordon:
Okay. Thank you Ralph. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, Ralph. Good morning. So just a try and get a better understanding scenarios from the FERC structure. Like what you said, you kind have a protection for non-subsidize generation and a path for subsidize generation. I guess the only issue would be you would I assume need to get a new legislative structure then if you just - no it can be done with the current one?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, well I think yes, of course it depends what FREC says, but we have every reason to believe that the state could designate resource requirements that for example, legislation right now that is been signed by the Governor saying was 40% of its energy to come from nuclear plants. So that legislation exists. There is a real brand new legislation that exists in terms of renewable portfolio standard. So the approach we would think it could work is that the BPU would simply say that based upon that statutory authority using a couple of mechanisms that we have already started talking about what I would rather not go into detail here. It could be purely done through regulation without any need for additional legislation, fully supportive of the 3,500 megawatts of nuclear, 1400 megawatts of solar and whatever the headcounts. We have running around out there right now, which I’m not go into details.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. so the fact that there was a $300 million cap on the ZEC is not relevant for that aspect.
Ralph Izzo:
It isn’t right because the ZEC was not a payment for Energy or Capacity, the ZEC was the payment for fuel diversity and environmental attributes. So to supply the load in New Jersey there has to be an Energy and the Capacity payment and that is wholly separate from the ZEC payment. That is, that was abundantly clear in the legislation and…
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then just, I am just curious if in trying to figure out this whole picture, if you heard any updates on potential DOE fuel stability plan and just where that might be and how that fit into this.
Ralph Izzo:
I had not - one could conclude that if price suppression is eliminated that could solve DOE’s concern about other units that are suffering from that price depression becoming viable again. But that is really an extrapolation that you would have to judge for yourself. The DOE issue has been out there for a while now, there is a resiliency technical workshop going on at FERC, I think there was a meeting yesterday if I'm not mistaken or two days ago, but I don't have any other information than what you probably have already read in the press.
Steve Fleishman:
And then just on the AMI big picture program you mentioned. When we are going to - what be the date for when will get an update on that?
Ralph Izzo:
So if we file it with the Clean Energy filing, it would literally be within a couple of weeks. If not also maybe a month or two. If it's done separately, that could be a little longer data that could still into the end of this year.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
You are welcome.
Operator:
Thank you so much. And your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock. Your line is now open.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning guys. So just sort of a follow up on this capacity. It seems to me that if I understand thoughtful and - question, your answer like it seems to me that if I understand you correctly, you expect to see some additional form of mitigation measures to address the impact of essentially disrupt self supply for our specific resource alternatives. Is that Correct? And am I understanding that correctly?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, that is right Paul. So what we understand, and FERC has said and its second step of the process was that, okay states if you want to assure your own resource adequately consisting of various components, then you can do that. And we will let you remove them from the market as well as the load associated with that. And I think we are profitably we are talking about is that, that second half of that sense is well, what is the load associated with that, right. So if resource adequacy and a 168,000 megawatt market is 16% or 15.8%, what is an adequate reserve margin when the market is 3000 megawatts. Is it higher, is it lower, I would argue it's much higher, because if you lose one nuclear unit out of 3000, you got q big problem. So maybe resource adequacy then. You have got, you are only taking your reserve margin needs to be 35%, I'm making stuff up here with us. So, the state wants that nuclear unit, it's painful environmental attributes, it's going to collect an energy price in the PJM market, it's and going to set a capacity price, presumably through a market proxy, that RPM would be agree duplicate for. And then it's going to leave behind a lot more load and it took out. And a lot less supply, then it's took out. Well that works nicely for the residual market. We just have to make sure that everyone else sees it that way.
Ralph LaRossa:
At a minimum, if you do have that hypothetical situation that Ralph just talks about and as a shortfall with respect to the load in the resources that we are thinking out, what is going to happen is that that load is going to rely upon the balance of the market and the reserve that sits within the balance of that market. So a very strong reserve within the balance of that market is going to so the benefit of the low that was taken out for an FRR. So absent some kind of ability to ensure that that is compensated for there is a bit of a free rider issue. So logically tell you that there should be a reserve that is going to be appropriate for the smaller amount of load just come out.
Paul Patterson:
I hear you. That really hasn't been done with regulated assets, right? I mean, we don't see that I mean PJMs, IRM has been done throughout the footprints or regional specific area, it doesn't seem like they said, okay, this union is co-op that they have - right I mean, that is why it seems a little novel to me, I mean I understand the logic and - but I appreciate that that will be interesting to see how it all works out. Just an energy [indiscernible]. How much motive we have last year? What is the net investment after all this?
Ralph Izzo:
For the [indiscernible] there is an aggregate total of $20 million. So and those are the more acute areas. So there is very little that remains in that results.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So we are pretty much finished all I think.
Ralph Izzo:
We do, I mean, we'll see what happens. Ultimately, there could be some timing aspects to the extent that that there is a process that goes forward within a bankruptcy scenario. There could be a write down in the aggregate to be followed at a later date by a recovery in the aggregate. So from the accounting conservative standpoint, you could see more down before there is a recovery. And it could be separated as opposed to that. That would be the other element that I would point out.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure.
Operator:
Thank you so much. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Cregg, there are no further questions at this time, so please continue with your presentation and closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Right yes, so thank you all for joining us, I know that Dan and [indiscernible] will be on the road next week, if I’m not mistaken and then for sure we will see everyone at EEI in San Francisco in November and once again we are pleased with where we are in terms of Power portfolio and the construction of the new units going into service and the ongoing growth, the utility with no shortage of opportunities, that continue to surface, the strength of the balance sheet and security of the dividend and look forward to seeing you on the road in San Francisco. Thanks everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel Cregg - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin Smith - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Praful Mehta - Citigroup Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Gregory Gordon - Evercore ISI Travis Miller - MorningStar Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates Paul Fremont - Mizuho Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research Michael Weinstein - Credit Suisse
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Nicole and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter Earnings 2018 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Monday, April 30, 2018 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1P.M. Eastern today until 11:30 P.M. Eastern on Tuesday, May 8, 2018. It will also be available for audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Nicole. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our earnings call. As you are aware, we released first quarter 2018 earnings statements earlier this morning. The release and attachments are posted on our website at www.pseg.com under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2018 is expected to be filed shortly. I'm not going to read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA and GAAP results. But I do ask that you all read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. The disclaimer statement regarding forward-looking statements details the number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made there in. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even in light of new information or future events unless required by applicable securities laws. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and net income reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measures of operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA provide a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand operating and financial trends, but should not be considered an alternative to our corresponding GAAP measure net income. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up to provide enough time for everyone. Thank you. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen and thank you everyone for joining us today. Earlier this morning we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2018 of $0.97 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.92 per share in the last year's first quarter. Our GAAP results for the first quarter of $1.10 per share reflect solid operating and financial contributions from both businesses. This compares to GAAP results of $0.22 per share in last year's first quarter, which includes expenses associated with our decision to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations. Details on the results for the quarter can be found on Slide 5. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter benefited from an increase in earnings at both PSE&G and Power. On the operating front, our service area experienced four consecutive Nor'easters in March that wreaked havoc on trees and power lines. The repeated battering of freezing rain, heavy snow and high winds caused widespread service outages to over 500,000 customers during two of the back to back storms. PSEG employees once again rose to the challenge beginning with comprehensive storm preparation and then efficiently and safely completing PSE&G and PSEG- Long Island customer restorations the utility then actually offered assistance to neighboring utilities. The diversity of PSEG Power's generating fleet was also responsive to the extremes in weather that range from a near zero temperatures experienced in January to the very mild weather in February. Eight days of severe weather in January however, demonstrated again the importance of fuel diversity. Power's high nuclear availability and greater use of oil was able to meet weather related demand. For the quarter, PSEG's nuclear plants achieved the near perfect capacity factor of 99.5% anchored by a record setting 517 consecutive day run at the Hope Creek generating station. We have successfully advanced many policy and regulatory initiatives during the quarter. Last week, PSE&G reached the settlement to expand and extent its Gas System Modernization Program. The settlement which is awaiting approval by the Board of Public Utilities would allow PSE&G to invest approximately $1.9 billion over five years beginning in 2019. This next phase of GSMP will replace approximately 875 of miles of gas mains and make other improvements that will reduce methane emissions and ensure we have the critical infrastructure needed to grow New Jersey's economy. PSE&G is also implemented transmission and distribution rate reductions to pester the benefits of recently enacted lower federal corporate tax rates to our customers. In addition, PSE&G filed with the BPU this past January its first base rate case since 2010. PSEG Power made significant progress in its continuing efforts to ensure the economic viability of its nuclear plants. With broad bipartisan support the New Jersey Legislature passed the Zero Emissions Certificate bill in early April, key provisions of the ZEC Bill as we refer to it are outlined on Slide 6. We are hopeful that the safety net mechanism to be implemented by the BPU upon Governor Murphy's signature will secure Power's nuclear fleet as a major source of New Jersey's carbon free energy supply and acts as a bridge through a cleaner energy future as the state implements companion legislation to further promote renewable energy. The major energy policy goals of the new clean energy bill are outlined on Slide 7. PSEG has been incorporating climate change considerations into its business planning and investment decisions for many years. We look forward to working with the Murphy administration as New Jersey pursues energy policies which recognize the value of existing carbon free energy resources and promotes new opportunities to advance New Jersey's clean energy goals. Also in the category of good news, we have reached the full and final resolution of the long standing FERC investigation into Power's cost based bidding matter. PSEG continues to focus on its strategic investment program of $13 billion to $15 billion over the 2018 to 2022 period. Earnings for PSE&G are expected to grow by 5% in 2018 to represent 65% of our full year 2018 non-GAAP operating earnings. The previously mentioned $1.9 billion of settlement providing for the second phase of PSE&G's Gas System Monetization Program is aligned with our investment goals and supports annual growth in PSE&G's rate base at the upper end of our forecasted rate of growth of 7% to 9% through 2022. PSEG Power continues to operates its assets safely and efficiently and remains focused on the cost discipline essential in today's power market. Construction of two of Power's three combined cycle gas turbines under construction, is expected to conclude around mid-year and will at 1,300 megawatts of clean highly efficient gas fired generating capacity in favorable locations. This significant list of accomplishments could not have been achieved without the tireless effort of many talented teams across PSEG, from the Utility's line crews and Power's plant operations to state government affairs, communications, regulatory, legal and finance. I'd like to recognize their exceptional contributions to our progress. Today we are reaffirming our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for the full year of $3.20 per share. At the midpoint this represents 6% increase over 2017's full year non-GAAP results of $2.93 per share. With the support of our 13,000 dedicated employees, we expect to be able to successfully deliver on the promise of our investment programs that should provide growth for our shareholders and a sustainable energy future for our customers. With that I'll turn the call over to Dan who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Daniel Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph and Good morning everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2018 of $0.97 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.92 per share in last year's first quarter. On Slide 5, we've provided you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. And we've provided you with information on Slide 10 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. Slide 11 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I'll now review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G as shown on Slide 13, reported net income for the first quarter of 2018 of $0.63 per share, compared to $0.59 per share for the first quarter of 2017. PSE&G's first quarter results reflected continued successful execution of our infrastructure investment programs. Growth in PSE&G's investment and transmission added $0.03 per share or the first quarter. And recovery of investments made under the Gas System Modernization Program, improve net income by $0.02 per share and favorable weather comparisons added $0.01 per share versus the year ago quarter. PSE&G experienced higher cost associated with restoring service to customers following four storms that occurred over a 30 day period. The increase in storm costs when combined with the change in pension accounting standards from non-service costs increased O&M by $0.01. In addition, higher depreciation expense reflecting the utility's expanded asset base reduced net income by $0.01 per share versus the first quarter of 2017. Weather-normalized electric sales to residential and commercial customers rose by four tenths of a percent compared to the first quarter of 2017. Weather-normalized gas sales were higher by 1.6% in the quarter led by increased residential and commercial usage. Residential and commercial growth continues to trend higher at eight tenths of a percent per year. PSE&G implemented a revised $64 million annual increase in transmission revenue under the company's FERC approved formula rate effective January 1, after factoring in the $148 million decrease in its revenue requirement associated with a lower federal tax rate. PSE&G also reduced its distribution revenue by 114 million in response to the BPU's order to accelerate returning the benefits of federal tax reform to customers effective April 1. Combined, that's $262 million of benefit to customers. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G the GSMP II filing with the staff of the New Jersey BPU rate council and other parties, which remains subject to BPU approval. The details of the agreement are summarized on Slide 16. Model this to the BPU's recently enacted infrastructure investment program or IIP initiative, the agreement will allow PSE&G to invest 1.9 billion over five years beginning in 2019 to continue and accelerate the replacement of cast iron and unprotected steel mains in addition to other improvements to the gas system. The settlement provides five year project visibility to efficiently plan labor, materials vendors and permitting. Approximately 1.6 billion of the total program will be eligible for semi-annual rate ruling's with the remaining 300 million to be addressed in a future base rate case. The return on equity for the GSMP II investment will be determined in PSE&G's pending base rate case and as part of the settlement PSE&G agreed to file a base rate case no later than five years from the commencement of GSMP II. We are maintaining our forecast of PSE&G's net income for 2018 of $1 billion to $1.13 billion. Moving on to Power, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.33 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of 313 million. This compares to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.30 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of 359 million for the first quarter of 2017. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA includes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization expense. The earnings release and Slide 21 provide you with detailed analysis of the earnings having an impact on Power's non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income quarter-over-quarter. And we've also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter in Slide 22. Power's net income comparison for the first quarter reflects an increase in capacity prices of $0.01 per share. Re-contracting and lower market demand reduced results by $0.06 per share versus the first quarter of 2017. Plant maintenance increased O&M expense and reduced net income comparisons by one penny per share. And lower depreciation associated with the early retirement of Hudson and Mercer generating stations in June of '17, along with lower interest expense added $0.02 per share versus the year ago quarter. A reduction in the corporate tax rate for recently enacted federal tax reform and other tax items improves first quarter net income comparisons by $0.07 per share. Gross margin in the first quarter declined just $35 per megawatt hour from $37 per megawatt hour in the year ago quarter. Although power prices were higher on average driven by extreme temperatures in early January, lower market demand experienced in February lowered dispatch of Power's intermediate fleet. Compared to last year's first quarter Power experienced the $4 per megawatt hour decline in the average hedge price. This decline is lower than the anticipated annular reduction of $6 per megawatt hour forecasted for the full year. As a result the first quarter benefited from the cold weather experienced in January. We forecast average hedge prices for the remainder of the year to decline by more than $6 per megawatt hour resulting in an average decline for the full year of $6 per megawatt hour. Capacity revenues by comparison are expected to increase throughout the remainder of the year with the average price received scheduled to increase on June 1, 2018 to $205 per megawatt hour in PJM and to $314 per megawatt day in ISO New England, that's 205 per megawatt day in PJM. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Generation output declined modestly compared to the first quarter of 2017. Output was affected by severe winter weather at the start of the year. And in conjunction with an unseasonably warm February and higher planned outage hours at the Bergen and Linden combined cycle units, Power's gas fired CCGT fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 37% and produced 2.7 terawatt hours of output. A higher price for gas in the quarter favored a shift to more production from coal, which generated 1.5 terawatt hours and a doubling of peaking output. Power's nuclear fleet operated an average capacity factor of 99.5% for the quarter, producing 8.4 terawatt hours representing 66% of total generation for the fleet. And of note, Hope Creek's strong performance was evidenced by a breaker-to-breaker run 517 consecutive days of production before entering its planned refueling and maintenance outage on April 13. Power continues to forecast an improvement in output for 2018 to 55 to 57 terawatt hours. For the remainder of 2018, Power has hedged 80% to 85% of total forecast production at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour. For 2019, Power has hedged 60% to 65% of forecast production of 59 to 61 terawatt hours at an average price of $37 per megawatt hour. And for 2020, output is forecast to be 63 to 65 terawatt hours with 35% to 40% of forecast output hedged at an average price of $36 per megawatt hour. The forecasted increase in output for 2018 to 2020 includes generation associated with the mid 2018 commercial startup of 1,300 a combined cycle capacity at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland and at Sewaren in New Jersey and the mid 2019 commercial startup of the 485 megawatt combined cycle unit at Bridgeport Harbor, Connecticut, that will also mark the conclusion of Power's construction program. I'd also like to update you on the conclusion of the FERC investigation for Power's cost based bidding matter that has been pending since 2014. Last week FERC issued an order fully resolving this issue. Financially, Power has recorded an incremental $5 million pretax charge to income in accordance with the order, which included $8 million non-tax deductible penalty, so $0.02 impact from that item. And operationally we do not believe that the order will have any material impact on Power's ongoing business operations. We continue to forecast Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for 2018 and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA at 485 million to 560 million and $1.75 billion to $1.180 billion respectively. Now let me briefly address the operating results from Enterprise and Other. For the first quarter Enterprise and Other reported net income of 5 million or a penny per share versus a net loss of 15 million or $0.03 per share in the first quarter of 2017. Net income for the first quarter of 2018 reflects the absence of tax benefits in the year ago quarter at PSEG Energy Holdings and higher interest expense is apparent. The net loss in the first quarter of 2017 included $55 million pretax charge related to the continuing liquidity issues facing energy arena partially offset by tax benefits at PSEG Energy Holdings and the forecast for PSEG Enterprise and Other net income remains unchanged at $35 million. PSEG closed the quarter with $118 million of cash on the balance sheet with debt at the end of March representing 49$ of our consolidated capital and debt at Power representing 28% of its capital at the end of the quarter. Based on our strong balance sheet and credit metrics we are able to fund our five year capital investment program without the need to issue equity. We continue to forecast our non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $3 to $3.20 per share. That concludes my remarks and I'll now turn the call back to Nicole for a question-and-answer session.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] And the first question is from Julien Dumoulin Smith from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Hey, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
Hey, I wanted to follow up on the latest clean energy bill signed at the legislation that passed. Can you define a little bit more specifically the energy efficiency opportunity at the Utility to how to think about the net income impacts at the end of the day and then separately related just the possibility of pursuing offshore wins given its risk profile and given your current position, I mean how do you think about approaching or tackling that opportunity here or if at all?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, so Julian thanks for the question. We are generally excited by the Murphy administrations stated energy policies. As I think you know, we've been strong at the case of energy efficiency. We've done in kind of small bites; I think total over the past10 years or may be little bit north of $400 million worth of energy efficiency programs. And the clean energy bill anticipates 1.50% or 2% reduction depending on whether it electrical gas. I think it's 2% on electric and three quarters of a percent on gas. And the BPU is going to come up with rules, but surprise to say we've been thinking about this for a good long time, as the legislation also talks about recovering that utilities have the right to file annually to recover their cost including return on and off their capital and loss revenues as well. So this is great news and we will jump into this feet first and deliver universal access to energy efficiency for all the New Jerseyan's. On the offshore wind piece, we don't have a track record on the offshore wind, but we do have at least offshore and we do have a partner that's part of a JB that we have in place. So I would say that whether it's a participant in the transmission aspect or in the offshore wind aspects the form itself - that's probably not quite as mature in our own thinking as the energy efficiency, but overall this notion of a sustainable energy future is one we've been talking about for a decade or more and we are excited by the prospects that are created.
Julien Dumoulin Smith:
But just to clarifying the EE piece of this, I mean, how do you think about that in the context of de-coupling specifically and maybe that's a more wrecked question and separately if I can re-characterize a little bit how you describe when you talk to that sort of initial 400 million of cumulative spending. I mean, how does that compare versus what prospective you've been talking about even in order of magnitude?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I said that's right, an order magnitude difference. We analytically released our planned number for filing, but we have said that we anticipate putting a filing before the middle of the year and we still are on track to do that. I'd rather not give a specific number because there's a pre-filing meeting we need to go through before the Board of Public Utilities and they deserve to hear that kind of before we start blurting it out in the quarterly Earnings call. But it is an order of magnitude difference in terms of the opportunity.
Daniel Cregg:
And to your point Julian, related to the rate case, we did file a de-couplings mechanism as part of the rate case and that really fits hand in glove with, what's going on from an energy subsidy standpoint.
Julien Smith:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta:
Alright thanks so much. Hi guys.
Daniel Cregg:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi, so on the GSMP and the settlement and the distribution rate case, I'm trying to understand, where you're saying that if you achieve both you would be at the upper end of the 7% to 9%, just wanted to confirm that?
Ralph Izzo:
So, it's a combination of multiple factors Praful, there is the rate case which includes various tax give backs that have to do with also change in federal tax policy and differed tax balances. There's GSMP II which takes up $300 million per year prior GSMP per room up to about 375 million per year program. It is still the number one investment area that we will be focused on, which is transmission and all of our expectations there. And then there is some expectation for continuation of energy strong and energy efficiency, but not at numbers that we have completely disclosed yet, but when you add all that together, at least just think that we're bias towards the higher end of the 7% to 9% range, but then you may want to turn the real stone.
Daniel Cregg:
Gary, we said we are on the higher end of that and we anticipate being there and Praful I guess if we think about the rate case, the rate base element of that, it is a couple of things. One, it's the rolling some remaining portion of some prior clauses, but it's also rolling in the give back on some of the taxes effect. So with the way we characterized that earlier in the year was that we always talked about our growth rate and as we continue the capital program that we have, the existing rate base goes up. So, you're jumping off at a higher base and last year we were at about 7% to 9% growth rate, this year right about 7% and 9% growth. But, that higher base was really offset by some of the tax flow back that we would anticipate. So, that is what - basically the rate case and that flow back would hold you about steady and then with the existing GSMP settlement plus energy strong. Two, which we've talked a little bit about and possibly an energy filing we would anticipate moving higher up within that range.
Praful Mehta:
Got you, that's super helpful. So, just to clarify, I think you said 600 million will be unprotected BTL on I think previous calls, is that re-fund expected to happen pretty soon? And is that part of like the growth that's kind of flowing in to the rate base?
Daniel Cregg:
That will ultimately be determined in the rate case. So I think that the bulk of the excess deferred are going to be through the average rate assumption method, which will be a longer term period but some of that, in addition to some of the excess deferred it's going to be worked through the rate case related to some other item. So we will know more about that toward the end of the year.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough and just quickly on ZEC. Congratulations to where it's kind of come out so far, just wanted to understand in terms of the three year extension, it sounds like if the prices don't change meaningfully, you have a shot at continuous extensions. But, just wanted to understand from your perspective, how do you see that extension discussion going? Because if you do get the three year, what does it take to kind of happen next three year extension?
Ralph Izzo:
So, first of all you got to realize that the ZEC price is not tied to market price, right. The ZEC price is an attribute payment for the carbon and field diversity dimensions of nuclear power. There is a consumer protection put in the bill that goes to simply the affordability of ZEC's, when viewed in a context of overall energy prices that customers have to pay. As well as a provision in the bill that anticipates a review by the BPU as to whether or not the plans are in any kind of economic de-rest. So, that's what the three year review is for right. Can New Jersey continue to afford to pay for zero emissions energy and that's a question the BPU will have to answer on behalf of the customers. We will always be mindful, both on behalf of customers, but on behalf of our shareholders as to whether or not the plans are making their cost of capital on a risk adjusted basis and if they are not then we will close the plan. It's not [indiscernible] that's just to share responsibility. And we will always work extra hard to make sure New Jersey is aware of those situations and what that means in terms of the wars of attributes. So I just think it's a - as you know in nuclear space nothing happens in less than a year anyway and in RPM and PGM world things tend to happen in three year increment. So, just checking in every three years as to affordability, economic viability seems like very natural rhythm to put in to public costs.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough, thanks so much guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Nicole, do we have any other questions.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning guys.
Daniel Cregg:
Good morning Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Just on the energy efficiency and I hear you comment about filing by the middle of the year and then needing to go through a pre-file with the BPU. Is it a reasonable expectation that you'd be through that and able to give us a little more flavor by the time of the Analyst Day?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so we should definitely get the pre-file done before the Analyst Day, Jonathan and then we will tell you everything that we plan to file that point correct.
Jonathan Arnold:
So, the filing itself might not have been made, but you'll have a better sense of the scope of it?
Ralph Izzo:
It will be because the pre-file meeting is - there's a 30 day clock that starts from then and as you know the Analyst Day is on the 31and we haven't had the pre-file meeting yet although we like to have it.
Jonathan Arnold:
So, now I've got hearing you tell us a bit more than you told us today?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah and we'll tell you lot more. We are just too excited not to tell you a lot more so. This is a favor.
Jonathan Arnold:
Switching to something a little different, Slide 22 on power generation measures and just wanted to understand a little better, the coal costs up 9 million, it's about over 25% and the generation was a more like mid-single digits. So, is that just the fact that you're less hedged than you have been in the past and you are buying some spot to cover the extreme weather or is it a contract rolling off or how should we think about that, when we're trying to calculate coal cost for the rest of the year?
Daniel Cregg:
I don't think I would too much weight into that Jonathan. I think it's especially if I think about it from an overall component of the generation. I think what we saw was really a little bit more reliance on coal because of the weather, and I think on an ongoing basis, I don't anticipate it to be much of an impact as we go through the rest of the year.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I didn't do the numbers Jonathan. But if you look at that slide, you'll see that Pennsylvania is down a little bit and Connecticut's up quite a bit and Pennsylvania is a lot more expensive coal.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, that's helpful, thank you. But then on the oil piece presumably the denominator for those few –25 million of cost is in the gas segment?
Ralph Izzo:
That's correct.
Jonathan Arnold:
And again is there any - I guess what I'm trying to get a feel for is to what extent the weather may have actually hurt you at Power this quarter.
Daniel Cregg:
I think it had a lot to do with what you are seeing on the delta quarter versus quarter from sample on the oil. That number under normal situation would be much, much lower and what you saw was prices moving up and gas getting a little bit tighter and gas prices going to extreme levels for the quarter. So, I think what you saw was much more an anomaly with respect to oil burn for the quarter and that's all -
Jonathan Arnold:
Did you make that up in price or was that really just lost margin?
Daniel Cregg:
We were economic when we were running on oil. So, if we weren't economic we wouldn't have been running. But, if you took a look at where gas prices were, I mean gas prices during that part of the year, very early part of the year we were dressing up looking like a very healthy age old power prices as opposed gas prices, well up into the double digits.
Jonathan Arnold:
So, you don't feel that there was the - net-net this was a drag on the quarter, it just the moving pieces within the revenue and cost lines?
Daniel Cregg:
Yeah, I think that's right. I think some anticipated spark for earlier January wasn't quite were we would have wanted it to be because gas prices basically push you into oil which had lower margin. But it was a fairly short term phenomenon in January and anomaly. But it really does drive all the oil burn that you see there for the quarter.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon from Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Gregory Gordon:
Thanks, good morning. We were on the subject of PSE&G Power, there's several initiatives at PJM that are certainly in their pendency whether it's capacity market, design update or DC pricing, fast start pricing. I believe Andy put out a letter recently indicating that he hoped those three things would get done this year. Can you review what's your expectation is for the timing on those and the potential impacts on Power and then there's one thing extent, which is the management of PJM still seem support of overall price perform. There hasn't been much progress there, so can you give us an update on your expectations on that front?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure Greg, sure. On capacity market reform we've been public that we prefer the two phase approach, which is the PJM preferred approach even though they submitted the market monitors [indiscernible] based approach as well. I think we have every reason to believe that will go on to effect by May of '19, obviously that won't have any effect on the current RPM. So, I think that's the timing there. I would view fast-start as yet another piece of the price formation puzzle. I know that many people including ourselves talked about the inflexible unit dimension of price formation. But fast-start does have now a proposed zero threshold element to it, which is characteristic of inflexible units right. They can't move over the time frames that PJM is seeking. We've never been one to quote whether or not the forward price curve has these numbers in it nor have we been one to quote what these changes will mean to the forward price curve. We just say the market is the best determinant to that and our all internal views will influence whether we hedge a little bit to the high side or to the low side of our own internal disciplined approach. I think Andy, himself has said that these should be able the energy prices fixes should be able to be put in place by a little bit more than a year from now, but sometime in the summer of '19, so that is a delay. I think that once upon a time there was a talk of fall of '18 for some of these reforms, but I think the combination effect has introduced that [indiscernible]. I think the good news if I might is that the PGM board appears to be willing to undertake what's called the Liaison process [ph] as opposed to the full-fledged stake holder process, which can put a little bit more of a limitation on the amount of time. I should by the way point out that in terms of RPM, we prefer the status score, but the middle of that PGM is made we think the two phase approach is better than one phase approach. I don't think PGM has given up on the full inflexible unit pricing, they see that as part of their resiliency discussion which continues comments due back from I think the rest of us, [indiscernible] has already made their comment, ours is due back I think in the middle of June or the middle May, I suppose. So, it's still working process not over by any shreds or something's that's bit of a date certain - are either capacity market reforms and energy market forms we think are still creep into the market.
Gregory Gordon:
Thank you for the update.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller from MorningStar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
Thank you. Reading through the ZEC, it sounds like there could be out-of-state plans that would be eligible and most interested in your thoughts Peach Bottom plant if that is true, if I am in fact reading the ZEC correctly?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so Travis, you are absolutely reading it correctly. The bill simply says that New Jersey wants 40% of its power supply by nuclear energy and it does not limit geographically. In terms of there being - more than 40% of New Jersey's electricity being deliverable by nuclear power plants whether its Salem, Hope Creek, Peach Bottom or a variety of others. Then there's a ranking system that the BPU is encouraged to undertake that is really driven off of the greatest impact on New Jersey from an air quality point of view and various other parameters that are detailed in the legislation. But the short answer to your question is yes. Out of state plans would be eligible, but New Jersey would not support or coincide to legislation more than 40% of its energy being supplied by nuclear power.
Travis Miller:
Okay, what's the thought that Peach Bottom would rank at the bottom, just giving us on New Jersey?
Ralph Izzo:
No, I don't want to pre-determine what the BPU will do. Peach Bottom will compete with Salem and Hope Creek and [indiscernible] but it doesn't.
Travis Miller:
Yeah, sure, so second question on the clean energy bill. What components specifically could generate rate base growth if any? Just clarifying a couple I guess?
Ralph Izzo:
There are multiple, right. So the utility has done grid connected solar, utility done roof top solar and the utility has done energy efficiency, it has done pilot programs in battery storage technology, so various - no shortage of opportunities that are expanded in the clean energy world. Two others, there's a transmission components offshore wind, there's offshore wind itself, so I think you just have to remember what the Governor says, he sees nuclear power as an important bridge to renewal future and the renewable future he has in that bill which he has not signed yet, is the 50% renewable target in 2035. And we expect to be participants in every aspect of that sustainable energy agenda.
Travis Miller:
Got it and those are investments you foresee could go under rate basis and not just on an exit to rotate collections right?
Ralph Izzo:
That's correct. Well, I mean yes. Look the reality is in New Jersey just given our geographic and natural resource profile, you are not going to be able to do merchant seller or merchant off shore wind, those will have to be supported through some type of regulatory revenue stream that's either in the form of renewable energy credit and - or some other mechanism. And again on the offshore wind piece I just want to empathize that while we have at least - we've never done that before, so we would be interested in the transmission component probably as much if not more than the actual wind farms and we are - as I said a moment ago, we are all in on energy efficiency piece.
Daniel Cregg:
I think some elements of the legislation Travis, talks specifically about utilities investing and having recovery, I don't know, like the energy efficiency. Off shore wind, very different situation, not specifically laid out as to how that will work out. In fact, the legislation really calls for a study for that to be determined - things like that to be determined.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Yeah, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson from Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson:
Hey good morning.
Daniel Cregg:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
Just ZEC under suspect [ph], when is the Governor expected to sign the nuclear legislation?
Ralph Izzo:
Paul, so he has - so the New Jersey Governor has 45 days to act on legislation and that action could be either an outright veto which would require two thirds majority of the legislation to over write, something called the conditional veto which is like this except for and then he sends it back to legislature to change the piece that you like except for or to sign in for law. In addition, if he doesn't act for 45 days, it automatically goes it for a while. So those are the options.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. So let me ask you this. If we don't get in signing it by the RPM auction which is in that far from now, how should we think about how that might effect, how you guys would be bidding into the capacity auction?
Ralph Izzo:
You know we never comment on our bidding in plans prior to the auction but I - let's say this that we would view things differently if we do the legislation versus simply not get around to signing it yet. So those are two things.
Paul Patterson:
I see. Okay, I got it. So, okay, absolutely you guys sort of expecting that this bill be enacted?
Ralph Izzo:
You know he is - like ever wants to pretend to be constraining your government. He is a very important person and he is a talented person one that we admire. So I am not going to try to tell me what to do on an earnings call. But having said that I mean he has been outspoken and supportive of nuclear is a bridge to renewable energy in the future and he is also been outspoken and support of the important of those jobs so South Jersey. So I feel pretty good about those public statements on this part.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then the LG efficiency program, just how should we think about how that impacts the demand forecast longer term and just in general how we should think about how you see energy demand for electricity demand working in the State?
Daniel Cregg:
You know Paul, we've been working hard to try to remind investors that the utility growth story is really independent of demand growth. Demand growth are the absence of it has significant implications for how regulations needs to be restart to avoid the compounding of inevitable when regulatory lag on investment returns. But PSE&G's growth over the past ten years and its continued future growth really is about an aging infrastructure and these replacement and a higher degree of customer service and customer demand for clean energy future. And I am absolutely convinced that we can continue to invest in a resilient grade cleaner energy and more efficient use of energy which would - that third piece would help lower customer bills and put smiles on our shareholders. So I think that energy efficiency is an important part of controlling the bill from the point of view of the extra cost associated renewable energy and making the group more resilient.
Paul Patterson:
So you guys had demonstrated that too, so you guys have been the head of the group on that, but I guess sort of wondering though it does have an impact perhaps on non-regulated generation not just in your state but all over. So what you guys like be doing could have an impact there, I am just sort of curious is to what you guys think. And just roughly speaking all these demands - what you see the demand for cost kind of being?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, I think RPM is a good example, demand forecast is down. I think that's the consecutive year over some large single digit number, well that's been the case. We've obviously made the decision in our own service territory that power has a much bigger market in which you plan and therefore to the extent that our own efforts cannibalize power, we've been willing and continue to be willing and continue to be willing to do that. I do think that the primary supply demand economics in the wholesale market are going to be determined as much by the shrinkage of supply as it is going to be determined by any changes in demand.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael [indiscernible] from Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi guys, thank you for taking my question. One easy one, you have talked about this in prior earnings call during Analyst Day, haven't circle back on this a bit. Can you just talk about how much extra balance sheet capacity that you think the company has right now, meaning either the fund, incremental rate base closed or incremental renewable growth at PS Power. Just kind of when you think about your credit metrics in a post-tax reform world and balance sheet strength, how big is that balance sheet strength?
Daniel Cregg:
And Michael, I think you'd want to think about it really in two steps right, we've talked about the ability to fund the capital plans such as we have without the need for any addition equity. And then as you mentioned consistent with we talked about it in the past, if we take a look at our existing credit statistics and you take a look at where some of the threshold points are, you got somewhere in the order of $1 billion of excess at PSEG Power which then can be utilized at the utility within the existing regulatory capital structure. So that can be matched with debt and so you'd come up with that double if you think about from a utility overall investment incremental standpoint without having any impact on the existing ratings.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. And incremental for potential holding incremental holding company leverage or do you just think about it as if opportunities came up for incremental investment at power or at E&G, you would simply make the leverage down at power?
Daniel Cregg:
I think that the leverage could happen at power or at the parent company. I think we've had some parent company debt and we tend to talk a look at what makes them more sense from economics standpoint when looking to source that debt. So I think that it could be at either location but I think you are in the same ballpark when I talk about the numbers that I just referenced.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Thank you, Dan, much appreciated.
Daniel Cregg:
Yeah.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont from Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Fremont:
Thanks. I guess the first question would be on the clean energy bill. When I think of the 7% to 9% rate based growth target and the fact that you guys are seeing yourself footed with the upper end. Do the investment opportunities under the clean energy bill keep you within that 7% to 9% band or would that potentially put you outside of that band?
Ralph Izzo:
So I'd rather give more detail on the band at the upcoming investor conference Paul, right now because I think we'll have more information coming out of our pre-filing meeting with the board staff and hopefully definite resolution of the nuclear build by that point in time.
Paul Fremont:
Okay. And then sort of a quick question on Hope Creek, the 60 megawatt upgrade that was approved, when would that take affect?
Ralph Izzo:
It was 16 or 60?
Daniel Cregg:
16.
Ralph Izzo:
16, it was much small. You know I have to get on it Paul, I don't know the answer. Our nuclear has been jammed with broader issues than 16 out of the 1100. It wasn't occur - I mean this was a change I believe and our problem was to take risk assessment that allowed us to run the plant at different numbers. But I'm tempted to say it's coming out.
Daniel Cregg:
I think coming out of this outage is the right answer, but we can't confirm that for you.
Paul Fremont:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
Any questions we can answer for you Paul?
Paul Fremont:
No, that's good. Thank you very much and congratulation.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie. Your line is open.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. So my only question is you guys in the past mentioned that you might try to pursue electric retail in the mid-Atlantic, we haven't actually had much, haven't heard much about it. And you know do you think that this is still something you'll be interested in and so do you think that this would be done organically or would you need to acquire every tool book? Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, Angie, thanks for the question. We're still at work, it is exclusively an organic effort. We did look at the potential for acquisitions but given that the purely defensive nature of this effort and our desire for it to basically help us improve our margins based on our own assets. You know there's been no book that kind of sit back to high enough degree of accuracy that the transaction costs what those swamped the benefits of, because whatever book we bought, we have to sell off a piece of it and that would be suboptimal. So we're continue to pursue an organic growth strategy there.
Angie Storozynski:
Cool. And my other question on the regulated side. So even your rate base what you grow at 9%, would you consider acquisitions of other regulated under invested systems than your, around your service territory or in the same state?
Ralph Izzo:
You know we always, there are logic announcements. I don't know if any that are available in that state that are bigger entity. So we always look at those right, but we've been very public that we are quite an advert with our organic growth strategy and without any disrespect to our colleagues in the industry sometimes are puzzled by the premiums that others are willing to pay and we've not putting a little pencil of those in the way that works. But we always look at those possibilities.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Fleishman from Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman:
Hi, good morning. Sorry, quite buggy with some clarifications but just on the weight base growth comment, could you clarify what the base of your growth forecast, is that change due to some of the tax reform adjustments or is it the same current base level 37 to 9?
Ralph Izzo:
Hi Steve. I think probably I'll let Dan dive into that. Yeah, but that's just a year end 2016 number, because 2017 number which is $17 billion.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. So the base is still the same base?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah.
Steve Fleishman:
And then and saying that you might be toward the high end that is including the GSMP but nothing else defined?
Daniel Cregg:
It would include as we look forward, some opportunity related to future filings right. So I would say that if we had nothing beyond the GSMP filing will be more middle of the road within that range and with the opportunity for future filings, we could see the opportunity to go higher than the middle of the range.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. So it may include some of these clean energy investments or?
Daniel Cregg:
And any other adjustments as we step forward through time, yes, yes.
Steve Fleishman:
Okay. And then - yeah, I am good. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein from Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Mike Weinstein:
Hey Ralph. It's Mike Weinstein. A quick question. You said before you prefer the status quo for the current capacity market reforms I believe, I've heard some similar sentiment on and I'm just wondering what, is it about the status quo that's better than any of the proposal systems out there?
Ralph Izzo:
I just said it the status quo has new plants being mopped as opposed to existing plants being mopped and it doesn't interfere with the state's ability to price attributes that the market isn't currently pricing. So we just don't see a need for this kind of a modification at the current time.
Mike Weinstein:
I mean do you think any - is it that you think the modifications won't have an effect at all or?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no, no. I mean they will have different effects, I think that the two phase approach at least continues to allow states to recognize the value of renewables and carbon free energy sources. The market monitors approaches this for tracked administrative battle over what constitutes the appropriate minimal of offer price which as you know can be moved quite a bit depending upon whether you believe something has a 30-year life or 40 depreciable life if you cross the capital's X or 1.1X or 0.9X. So to characterize that is a correction to ensure the market is working properly. I think is inaccurate, I think it's a correction to assure administrative power refers to people who want to have administrative power and that's not necessarily consistent with markets. I mean what we are all dancing around here is we need a price on carbon and then let the market pick the technology. And then I think you see every participant in the market sign up for that, or it's for me the carbon heavy participants I guess.
Mike Weinstein:
Is that more handle better on the energy side basically and then you think, yeah total capital market reforms are currently distraction of some sort maybe?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, you've got a collapse an interim marginal revenues because there's no carbon price in energy markets. And that collapse in from marginal revenues, high fixed costs participants are getting crushed and that's, and yet people are saying they want the attributes of these high fixed cost participants are. You know you have the decoder ring right, the high fixed cost participant, there's a nuclear plant and yet people are paying record prices of anywhere from $5 to $200 per ton of carbon. And so the markets just got these inherent inconsistency is built into it. so if we did get a single price on carbon in energy markets then the in for marginal revenues will increase and the fixed cost recovery would be mitigated and then capacity markets can do what they were supposed to do, being for a liability mechanisms and nothing more.
Mike Weinstein:
Got it. Okay, thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
You're welcome. And I think we have time for one more question and then we'll I think let folks out the day back.
Operator:
It sounds like there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
It's always a magic no matter where you are, whether it's a teleconference or public speaking, if we say one more questions there are no questions but that's great. So anyway, so thank you folks for joining us today and I hope you heard from Dan and I that there's a lot of good things happening at PSEG and they range from a continuation of a $143 to $15 billion investment program 90% of which is going to the utility and leads to be biased towards the upper end of that 7% to 9% rate base growth looking out to 2022 twenty offered the higher base in at the end of 2017. Again we've got to give kudos to the great work done by our utility crews and our power plant operations during what were some very, very difficult circumstances certainly in January. And Kudos to our regular team and all of our support functions for the strives that made on some of the policy fronts with the settlement of GSMP II and legislation that recognizes the value powers, nuclear generation, I mean getting 60 out of 80 votes in the assembly and 30 out of 40 votes there on basis, I think validates what we've been saying along that New Jersey will recognize the important of these plants to our environment, to our cost of energy, to our economic wellbeing and that they are much cheaper to keep than they are until it's shutdown. And then of course our ongoing commitment to maintain our financial strength which gives us flexibility to support the growth and dividend, fund these rate based growth investment and no need to issue equity and still some balance sheet capacity leftover. So hopefully we'll see all of you on May 31. I know that's the weekend after that's Memorial Day, so coming Chubby's or whatever other beach where you have, we will have a great conversation about the rate base growth in detail where we are with our PM and I think there is a brand of clothing. And we'll see you soon. Thanks a lot everyone. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - IR Ralph Izzo - President & CEO Dan Cregg - EVP & CFO
Analysts:
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Gregory Gordon - Evercore ISI Christopher Turnure - JP Morgan Securities Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Shelby and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter 2017 and Year End Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 23, 2018 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2 o'clock P.M. Eastern Time today until 11:30 P.M. Eastern Time on Friday, March 2, 20178. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our earnings call. As you are aware, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2017 earnings results earlier today. The release and attachments as mentioned are posted on our website at www.pseg.com under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter and year. Our 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2017 is expected to be filed early next week. I'm not going to read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results. But I do ask that you all read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. The disclaimer statement regarding forward-looking statements details the number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made there in. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change unless required by applicable securities laws. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA and net income reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. PSE&G believes that the non-GAAP financial measures of operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA provide a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand operating and financial trends, but should not be considered an alternative to our corresponding GAAP measure net income. I'm now going to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question, and we hope to get to everyone's questions. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen and thanks everyone for joining us today. This morning we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2017, a $0.57 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.54 per share earned in the fourth quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $2.93 per share versus 2016 non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.90 per share were above the midpoint of our guidance range which was $2.80 to $3 per share. Our GAAP results for the full year of $3.10 per share included onetime non-cash benefits associated with the revaluation of deferred tax liabilities at enterprise and PSEG Power associated with a reduction in the federal tax rate and expenses associated with our decision to retire the Hudson & Mercer coal fire generating stations in June of '17. Details on the results for the quarter and the full year can be found on Slides 5 and 6. Successful execution of our capital program at PSE&G, an increased output coupled with strong cost control at PSEG Power offset earnings weakness experienced earlier in the year from abnormal weather conditions. Non-GAAP operating earnings from our regulated utility business grew 8.6% in 2017 as PSE&G's investment program expanded rate base by 12.5% to $17 billion at the end of the year. The utilities earnings have grown at an annual rate of approximately 13% over the past five years which is in line with its growth in rate base over this timeframe. While the growth in earnings occurred with PSE&G maintaining cost discipline -- I'm sorry, the growth in earnings occurred with PSE&G maintaining cost has been while was successfully implementing infrastructure programs that upgraded its electric and gas systems to make them both, more reliable and resilient. Importantly, PSE&G has achieved these results as customer bills have declined. This past January the utility filed it's first distribution base rate case since 2010. The filing which was required by the 2014 energy strong settlement calls for a 1% increase in revenue as it incorporates a reduction in revenue associated with the decline in the federal tax rate. Also in January PSE&G updated it's 2018 annual transmission formula rate with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission; the update reflecting a lower federal corporate tax rate reduced the utilities annual transmission revenue requirement by $148 million. The timing of the reduction in the federal tax rate and the base rate filing places us in a position to pass along tax savings to our customers and keep rates low allowing us to continue to improve our ageing infrastructure. As important, PSE&G's achievements allowed us to maintain our best-in-class reliability. For the 16th year in a row PSE&G has worked to protect and strengthen the system yielded recognition as the most reliable electric utility in the Mid-Atlantic region. Also during the year the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities approved PSE&G's plans to expand its investment in energy efficiency by $69 million. PSE&G also filed with the BPU plans to extend its innovative gas system modernization program. The extension otherwise known as GSMP2 would accelerate the pace of replacement of ageing cast iron and unprotected steel. The program would in turn replacing 250 miles of pipe per year over five years at a total cost of $2.7 billion. We hope to have a decision on this program in the second quarter. The GSMP2 filing is modeled on the process outlined in the infrastructure investment program, and if I refer to that a future, I'll just say IIP which was approved by the BPU in January. The Board's approval of IIP provides for a rate recovery mechanism that encourages and supports the continued safety, reliability and resiliency of utility infrastructure which is essential for economic growth in New Jersey. In the coming months, you should expect PSE&G to seek approval once again under the IIP process. To extend this energy strong related investment programs, we also expect to make a filing to broaden our investment in energy efficiency. And expansion of energy efficiency is one of the best means of achieving the state's clean energy goals and simultaneously limiting growth in the customer bill. Now let me turn my attention to PSEG Power. Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $505 million or $1 per share we're at the upper end of our guidance range. Cost discipline across the fleet and strong operations from Power's nuclear generating asset supported the better than forecast results. Power's nuclear fleet operated at 93.9% capacity factor for the year generating record electric output of 31.8 terawatt hours. PSEG Power has also made progress on construction activities related to it's three new natural gas combined cycle generation stations. Two plans; the Keys and Sewaren stations are expected to be operational during the second quarter of this year. And Bridgeport Harbor 5 is expected to achieve commercial operation during the second quarter of 2019. Together these represent 1,800 megawatts of efficient clean gas-fired capacity that will improve Power's competitive position. Safe and reliable operation has been a hallmark of PSEG Power. The cold weather experienced early in 2018 reinforced the importance of Power's diverse fleet and of course, making sure the assets were available when needed to meet demand. The nuclear plants ran at full power providing base load capacity for everyday demand as shortage of natural gas required some of Power stations to operate on oil. Power's management team has continued to drive efficient operations at it's fossils missions which included the early retirement of the Hudson & Mercer coal fire stations, as well as at nuclear. Controlling costs is vital but we face continued challenges in maintaining operations, particularly at our nuclear plants as the average price for Power's energy hedges is expected to decline by $5 per megawatt hour in 2018 from $45 dollar per megawatt hour in 2017 with even further erosion foreseen in 2019. On the policy front as you know, we've been focusing on raising awareness of the financial condition of our nuclear generating assets and communicating to the State of New Jersey the detrimental impact closure would have on the state's cost of electricity, its air quality and overall economy. The loss of the approximately 32 terawatt hours of clean electric energy produced by Power's nuclear generation in 2017 would represent a severe setback to the state's ability to meet its clean energy goals and result in crushing economic impacts due to resulting increases in electricity prices and major job losses. We remain involved in discussions with key stakeholders here in New Jersey and with those in charge of the wholesale energy market at FERC and PJM to secure the long-term viability of our nuclear generation assets. A bill as proposed in the New Jersey legislature would value the attributes of nuclear and create a safety net for our at-risk nuclear capacity. The bill also addresses the state's pass toward a clean energy future. We're pleased that the legislature is giving this issue the careful attention it deserves, and hope for timely resolution. But the risk of closure remains without a change in the financial condition of nuclear. To that end, Power recorded $276 million increase in its asset retirement obligation liabilities at the end of 2017 to take into account a higher assumed probability of early retirement of its nuclear units. Our financial condition is strong given the focus we've placed on maintaining a healthy balance sheet that supports our investment goals. Our balance sheet continues to provide us with a competitive advantage as we adapt to recently enacted changes in the federal tax code. We ended 2017 with strong credit metrics which support continued growth in our regulated investment program without the need to issue equity; and this position is unchanged with tax reform. Our capital program for the five year period ending in 2022 has expanded to $13 billion to $15 billion from the $13 billion level outlined a year ago. And it remains focused on investments that improved reliability and inefficiency of our operations which also advanced the state's plans to a clean energy future. The utilities investment program of roughly $11.5 billion to $13.2 billion, which accounts for 90% of the total PSEG program addresses customers desires for reliable, efficient and clean energy and provides for continuation of our projected 7% to 9% compound annual growth rate for rate base off a higher 2017 base. Also given the impacts of tax reform, we feel comfortable achieving the midpoint of that range. PSEG Power's major capital program will be complete in 2019 following the commercial operation of Bridgeport Harbor 5. The start-up of that 485 megawatt gas-fired combined cycle unit will represent the conclusion of Power's $2 billion capital investment in 3 new gas-fired combined cycle stations including the previously mentioned Keys Energy Center and Sewaren which as I said are scheduled to start up by the middle of this year. Power's focus will be on efficient operations, improving the returns on the generating assets and resolving the fate of its nuclear units. PSEG strategy implemented a decade ago has transitioned our business mix to one that is more aligned on regulated earnings. PSE&G, our regulated company has grown to represent two-thirds of our consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings. PSEG Power focused on improving its operational efficiency and maintaining a strong balance sheet continues to provide strong cash flow in support of our investment program. The growth in our investment program and the disciplined approach to O&M have overcome a decline in energy prices over the past five years and produced annual growth in consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings of approximately 4% during that time. Despite the challenges we continue to face in the wholesale markets, especially our nuclear units, the continued successful investment in regulated programs that provide reliability and quality service to our customers and the benefits of a reduction in the federal tax rate are expected to support continued growth in earnings. For 2018 we are forecasting consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings of $3 to $3.20 per share which at the midpoint represent 6% growth in earnings over 2017. The Board of Directors recent decision to increase the Company's common dividend 4.7% to the indicative annual rate of $1.80 per share is an acknowledgement and expression of confidence in our strategy and outlook. It needs to be said that our success as the result of the outstanding effort of our dedicated workforce, and we are positioned to continue to execute on our strategy to provide long-term value to our shareholders as we meet the needs of our customers in the communities we serve. I'll now turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.57 per share versus $0.54 per share for the fourth quarter of 2016. Our earnings in the quarter brought non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $2.93 per share, a 1% increase over 2016's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.90 per share and at the upper end of our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for 2017 of $2.80 to $3 per share. And on Slide 5 we have provided you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. We've provided you with information on Slide 11 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. Slides 12 and 14 contain waterfall charts that take you through the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year net changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I will review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2017 of $0.43 per share compared with $0.38 per share for the fourth quarter of 2016. PSE&G's full year 2017 net income was $973 million or $1.92 per share compared with net income of $889 million or $1.75 per share in 2016. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year were $963 million or $1.90 per share, an 8.5% increase over 2016 non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.75 per share. As shown on Slide 16, PSE&G's net income in the fourth quarter continue to benefit from a return on its expanded investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure which more than offset an increase in O&M. Growth in PSE&G's investment in transmission improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.03 per share, and recovery in investment made in gas distribution under PSE&G's energy strong and gas system modernization programs increased quarter-over-quarter net income by $0.01 per share. Colder than normal weather as compared to more normal weather conditions in the year ago quarter improved net income by $0.01 per share. An increase in O&M expenses associated with preventative and corrective maintenance reduced quarter-over-quarter net income by $0.02 per share. Electric sales on a weather normalized basis modestly declined 0.4% for the year as energy, efficiency and solar net metering offset growth in a number of customers. Weather normalized gas sales for the year increased 1.2% led by growth from commercial and industrial customers. PSE&G's distribution rate base filing provides it with an opportunity to reflect current estimates of electric and gas sales growth, and proposes improvements in it's rate design including decoupling and higher monthly fixed charges offset by lower volume metric rates to minimize the impact of sales variability. This aligns our interest with achieving greater energy efficiency results. Details of the base rate filing are outlined on Slide 18. The filing is based on a test year ending June 30, 2018 with some adjustments for the following months including rate base of $9.6 billion as of December 31, 2018. And as Ralph mentioned, PSE&G filed for 1% increase in revenue or $95 million. In keeping with maintenance of PSE&G's credit metrics, the request is based on a cap structure consisting of 54% common equity and reflects a 10.3% return on equity. PSE&G's filing took into account approximately $130 million reduction in its annual revenue requirement as a result of the federal corporate income tax rate reduction from 35% to 21%; and in addition provides for a one-time credit for estimated excess income tax collected from January 1, 2018 to the time rates go into effect. PSE&G is also proposing to increase the amount of tax credits flowed back to customers in subsequent years. This would result in rate decreases which would have the effect of offsetting the impact on the customer bill associated with investments such as the GSMP2 capital program. Pursuing to a recent BPU order, we expect to make a filing to lower our rates sooner by April 1 to account for the lower federal tax rate and we'll update our rate case filing accordingly. A decision on the base rate filing is anticipated in the fourth quarter. PSE&G has separately updated its transmission formula rate filing for 2018 to incorporate the lower federal tax rate. The update reduced it's annual revenue requirement by $148 million from the original filing which called for an increase in revenue of $212 million. This adjustment has no impact on earnings expectations. PSE&G's investment of $3.1 billion and it's transmission and distribution infrastructure in 2017 provided for approximately 13% growth in rate base to $17 billion. Of this amount, PSE&G's investment in transmission has grown to represent 46% or $7.8 billion of the Company's consolidated rate base at the end of 2017. Reported by the ongoing transmission and distribution investment program, we are forecasting continued growth in PSE&G's net income to a range of $1 billion to $1.030 billion in 2018. Now let's turn to Power. As shown on Slide 21, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.20 per share compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.13 per share a year ago. The results for the quarter brought Power's full year non-GAAP operating earnings to $505 million or $1 per share compared to 2016's non-GAAP operating earnings of $514 million or $1.01 per share. Power's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and the year amounted to $196 million and $1.172 billion respectively, and this compares with adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2016 of $155 million and adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2016 of $1.201 billion. We provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and for the year on Slide 22 and 23. The earnings release as well as the earnings slides on Pages 12 and 14 provide you with a detailed analysis of Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and costs. Power's earnings benefited from an increase in capacity prices in New England NPJM which improved quarterly net income comparisons by $0.02 per share. A 2% increase in output improved net income comparisons by $0.01 per share as colder than normal weather resulted in higher gas end out which increased net income by $0.01 per share. A decline in the average price received on energy hedges of $4 per megawatt hour was partially offset by an increase in market prices on unhedged output which combined to reduce quarterly net income by $0.01 per share. A decline in O&M expense improved net income comparisons by $0.03 per share. A decline in depreciation expense associated with the retirement of Hudson & Mercer, as well as a decline in interest and taxes combined to improve fourth quarter net income comparisons by $0.01 per share. Gross margins in the fourth quarter increased to $38 per megawatt hour from $37 per megawatt hour, and power prices held up vis-à-vis gas prices in response to the colder than normal weather. For the year, gross margins declined to $38 per megawatt hour from $40 per megawatt hour, given a decline in average hedge prices for energy. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Output from Power's generating facilities decreased 2% in the fourth quarter and quarterly comparisons were influenced by the timing of nuclear plant refueling outages and increased demand in response to colder than normal weather during the month of December. Based on results for the fourth quarter output for the year of 51 terawatt hours was stronger than the forecast we provided you at the end of the third quarter which calls for full year output of 49 to 50 terawatt hours. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 89.9% in the fourth quarter, and the fleet's performance in the quarter resulted in a full year capacity factor of 93.9% producing record electric output for the year of 31.8 terawatt hours. The fleet's output was aided by strong performance from Power's 100% owned Oak Creek nuclear plant which operated at 100% capacity factor for the year. And based on our normal 18 months refueling cycle, Oak Creek is scheduled for refueling this spring and the spring of 2018. Power's gas-fired combined cycle fleet operated an average capacity factor of approximately 40% for the quarter, and approximately 47% for the year producing 13.6 terawatt hours of electric energy for the year. Output from the coal fleet declined slightly during the quarter as a result of the outage work at Keystone which for the year output from the coal fleet increased 12% as the fleets competitiveness benefited from an increase in gas prices. For 2018 with the addition of Keys and Sewaren combined cycle units, Power is forecasting an increase in output to 55 to 57 terawatt hours. Following completion of the recent basic generation or BGS auction in New Jersey, approximately 80% to 85% of production for the year is hedged at an average price of $40 per megawatt hour. Power is forecasting a further increase in output for 2019 to 59 to 61 terawatt hours for the full year of Keys and Sewaren in operation and a partial year from the new combined cycle unit at Bridgeport Harbor. And for 2020, Power is forecasting output of 63 to 65 terawatt hours; approximately 55% to 60% of 2019's expected output has been hedged at an average price of $38 per megawatt hour and approximately 25% to 30% of 2020's expected output has been hedged at an average price also of $38 per megawatt hour. And update of Power's hedged position is provided on Slide 26, and as you can see, Power has hedged it's base load nuclear and coal output for 2018 and is mostly hedged in 2019. The gas-fired combined cycle assets remain more open to the market during those years and will be available to take advantage of spark spread opportunities that have improved based upon recent fluctuations in commodity prices. The outlook for 2018 and 2019 has improved since our last update based on an increase in sparks in the region and Power prices have not declined to the same degree as gas. Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for 2018 are forecasted $485 million to $516 million and the forecast represents non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2018 of $1.075 billion to $1.118 billion. PSEG Enterprise and other reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2017 of $126 million or $0.25 per share compared to net income of $11 million or $0.02 per share for the fourth quarter of 2016. For the full year, PSEG Enterprise and other reported net income of $122 million or $0.24 per share which compares to a net loss of 2016 of $20 million or $0.04 per share and the results for 2017 include a one-time non-cash earnings benefit of $147 million related to the reduction in the federal corporate tax rate resulting in a decrease in energy holdings deferred tax liabilities, partially offset by an after-tax charge taken earlier in the year related to ongoing challenges facing energy Rina [ph]. The fourth quarter of 2017 PSEG Enterprise and other reported a non-GAAP operating loss of $21 million or $0.04 per share compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $17 million or $0.03 per share in the year ago quarter. Results for the fourth quarter of PSEG Enterprise and other non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $20 million or $0.03 per share versus $72 million or $0.14 per share in 2017. The decline in non-GAAP operating earnings in the fourth quarter reflects the impact of a $15 million after-tax contribution to the PSEG foundation, as well as certain tax items that's apparent and PSEG Energy Holdings in the absence of certain tax items in the fourth quarter of 2016 at PSEG Energy Holdings. For 2018, non-GAAP operating earnings for PSEG Enterprise and other, which are driven by PSEG [indiscernible] and partially offset by parent interest expense are forecast at $35 million. I want to spend just a moment on the subject of tax reform; PSEG is a net beneficiary under the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 and our financial flexibility remains strong. PSE&G as mentioned will be returning 100% of the benefit from the decline in the federal tax rate to its customers in the recently file distribution base rate request reflects a $130 million annual reduction in revenue associated with a lower federal tax rate. And as mentioned, we amended our 2018 transmission formula rate to incorporate the decline in revenue of $148 million associated with the lower federal tax rate. Net income from PSEG Power and Enterprise is expected to benefit from the decline in the federal tax rate; and our estimate of 2018's non-GAAP operating earnings reflects an improvement in earnings of approximately $0.16 per share. PSE&G's cash flow will be negatively impacted by the elimination of bonus depreciation and lower tax rates for ongoing tax depreciation. PSE&G Power's cash flow on the other hand is expected to benefit from it's ability to expense 100% of its capital expenditures. PSEG Power's cash flow in 2018 will also benefit from the reduction in the federal tax rate, as well as a decline in capital spending in 2018 of about $400 million with the mid-2018 completion of construction at both, Keys and at Sewaren. Given our strong balance sheet and low debt balance, we estimate that interest expense at PSEG Power and Enterprise will remain fully deductible for tax purposes. The reduction in the federal tax rate under the Tax Act also reduced the deferred tax liability of PSEG Power and Enterprise which was originally recorded based upon the higher 35% rate. At PSEG Power and Energy Holdings, we recorded onetime non-cash earnings benefits in the fourth quarter of 2017 of $588 million and $147 million respectively, resulting from this reduction in deferred tax liability. PSE&G has excess deferred taxes of approximately $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2017; and as recorded the impact of these excess deferred taxes as a regulatory liability. Approximately 70% of PSE&G's excess deferred taxes are deemed protected under the IRS normalization rules which requires the protected deferred taxes be returned to customers over the life of the remaining asset that generated deferred taxes in the first place. Given the long life nature of utility assets, it will take many many years for all of these protected taxes to be returned to customers. Remaining 30% or about $600 million; some of which were included in our distribution base rate filing will be returned to customers over a timeframe that will be determined in discussions with the BPU and with FERC. Of course as you know, the loss of bonus depreciation and reduction of PSE&G's deferred tax balance serves to increase it's rate base. We estimate that these two items combined will increase the annual growth in PSE&G's rate base by approximately 1% through 2022. The net result of the change in federal tax law on PSEG's consolidated cash flow and credit metrics is manageable given our business mix and the strength of our balance sheet. We do not anticipate the need to issue equity to finance our capital program and we continue to have excess balance sheet capacity to finance further growth. As Rob mentioned, our financial condition remains strong, we closed 2017 with $313 million of cash-on-hand, and debt representing 49.6% of our consolidated capital position and debit Power approximating 29% of it's capital base. At year end, Power's debt position was just over 2.1x the midpoint of our forecasted 2018 adjusted EBITDA. We are guiding to a non-GAAP operating earnings at PSEG for 2018 of $3 to $3.20 per share which is a 6% increase over 2017. And the common dividend was recently increased 4.7% to the indicative annual level of $1.80 per share. This represents a 58% payout of earnings at the midpoint of our 2018 guidance and builds on the 3.4% annual rate of growth in the dividend over the last 10 years. Shelby, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Julien Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Unidentified Analyst:
I just was wondering, could you provide a little bit of commentary on your outlook of ongoing PBM price commission reform discussion, as well as the potential for comprehensive energy legislation in New Jersey?
Ralph Izzo:
As you know there is due date -- I believe it's sometimes in the first week of March where each RTO was supposed to get back to FERC with respect to the FERC decision to close the DOE [ph] and to ask the question about fuel diversity and resiliency of the grid. There have very public conversations and statements by PJM that they believe in particular inflexible unit challenges are things that need to be corrected in the market, these showed up in abundance during -- it's not called a pole vortex [ph], there is some other name for this past January, some sort of a cold bond. We're in the odd testified in front of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that there had to be $4 million to $5 million in daily uplift payments. So without having control [indiscernible], I fully expect PJM management to submit comments to FERC that they have some improvements to make in their current tariff if prices in fact going to be the way in which the market is reliably dispatched because there continues to be out of marketing moments that are relied upon to achieve that. Switching gears on and moving over to New Jersey; we've had some very good conversations, we had a good day yesterday with a comprehensive energy bill which included our nuclear concerns reported out of the Senate Budget Committee in the Assembly Telecommunications and Utilities Committee getting further reference in the assembly to its budget committee, it's appropriations committee if you will. And I think the encouraging news there is that everyone who has testified and we now had four hearings on this thing I think with the exception of our competitors have said they don't want to see those plants closed. And our competitors obviously want to see those plants closed because that means higher prices. I just have a high degree of confidence that New Jersey policymakers understand the value of those plants and will do the right thing, but of course, one cannot guarantee any outcome.
Unidentified Analyst:
You talked about roughly $80 million benefit from tax reform at Power but increased guidance by only $50 million. Are there any headwinds that limit the ability to fully recognize that tax reform benefit?
Dan Cregg:
I think if you think about the overall impact year-over-year, we referenced the $0.16 related to tax reform but of course there is other impact as you step from year-to-year. What we'll see changes in capacity prices which will help but we also have a reduction in the average price that we sold our power. So that's a headwind that we have been fighting, and as you mentioned that we're [indiscernible] per megawatt hour, so you think about that across the fleet and then you compare that to an uplifting capacity and a benefit from tax reform, those are your biggest pieces.
Operator:
Your next question comes from [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
I understand that you have a pending rate case for your utility but your guidance for '18 imply relatively low pick up in earnings power of the utility versus what we have seen in the past. Is this just because you are waiting for your rate to be shoot up in the rate case?
Dan Cregg:
If you think about the timing of the rate case, we are essentially saying that we would intend to see rates at the end of the year; I think we referenced fourth quarter in our prepared remarks. So I think a big part of it is just related to the rate relief on the distribution side being -- coming at the end of the rate case which was really towards the end of the year.
Unidentified Analyst:
But how about your at previous expectations that there would be a rate based growth of around -- let's look at 8% or 9% and a commensurate increase in earnings. Is that -- does this still hold? I mean, that we're still waiting for the outcome of the rate base.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I think -- if you think about the two sides of the business; the transmission side, that's going to move along by virtue of the formula rate which is always the norm. But when we take a look at the utility side of the business, I wouldn't expect to see anything different. We have 6% increases to the midpoint of the range and with the rate case following on later in the year. And as we move into '19, I think that would bridge the gap for you.
Unidentified Analyst:
On the Power side; it seems like you've marginally reduced your expectations of volumes for the VGS auction, there has been also some news or press coverage of your interest in the retail business. How should we think about it? How you are actually trying to shape up the merchant power earnings given the weakness of the fuller curves?
Ralph Izzo:
We've been pretty consistent that the reach of our business is defensive play; it's primarily targeted at improving the negativity and basis differentials that we've experienced. We're looking at it as a nice supplement if you will to diminish of the BGS load contract that we have seen occurring over the years. What did change probably about a year or so ago was our recognition that we would not find an acquisition opportunity just kind of step into a New Jersey focused PJM centric opportunity; so we're building it organically and that's going fine but when you do something organically, it's a little bit more gradual than just stepping into it. So no change in strategy there at all.
Dan Cregg:
And as we step from year to year, we will have a BGS auction roll-off, so the state goes out to auction, a third of the load each year; so over three years they auction everything, and so as we step from year to year to year there could be some modest differences within volumes of the number of tranches that we would have as we go from auction to auction to auction.
Ralph Izzo:
I want to supplement something the Dan mentioned before. So the rate base growth; we're still saying 7% to 9% and comfortable with the midpoint. But remember, we had a fair amount of capital that was deployed coming at the back end of GSMP1 and energy strong, that is part of the rate case proceeding we are in now. So the 12% growth in rate base that you saw last year by necessity is then correctly pointed out is awaiting rate relief at the end of the year and when you get at the end of the year, you just -- and now Dan and I repeating ourselves, it doesn't give you the full 12 months of impact.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Praful Mehta of Citi Investments.
Praful Mehta:
I wanted to just clarify in terms of tax reform, what is exactly built into the forecast? I know on the back power side it sounds like you've incorporated the lower taxes. On the utility side, the DTA refund the unprotected didn't sound like it was; so I just wanted to clarify specifically what is currently built in tax reform and what is more left in terms of regulatory outcomes than you're waiting to see?
Dan Cregg:
I think if you think about the utility side of the ledger, it's much more a cash story especially right away. So it's about the pass back of taxes because frankly, you're not going to end up paying taxes. So if you think about what we did, we proactively in January went to FERC knowing that there was going to be a rate change and we knew we were going to pay less tax in 2018; so we proactively want to FERC to get that money back in customers hands; revenues come down, taxes come down, end up being a wash. There will be some modest benefit as we step through time because if you have less deferred taxes on your books and you pass that back to customers, you know deferred taxes as a reduction in rate base, so your rate base will grow as you step through time with that reduction in rate base but that will grow overtime and does not have really much of a P&L impact as you look at 2018 in particular for the utility.
Praful Mehta:
I was -- again, more focused on the cash impact specifically; like for example, the DDL refund, is that currently incorporated within the forecast or no?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. And further to the prepared remarks as well, you think about some of those are protected deferred taxes, that's the lion share of our deferred taxes; and that will get passed back over what's called the average rate assumption method, that's over the remaining life of the asset and I think it's a true statement to say that we are still passing back some deferred taxes from the 1986 Tax Act when it happened because we have such a long lived property. So that will go on for a period of time as those different lives end up turning. But yes, we've incorporated what we know and estimates of what we don't know into our numbers.
Praful Mehta:
And then secondly, in terms of the New Jersey bill; it's helpful and yes, the conversations say you were productive from what we heard yesterday. How do you see that playing out from here in terms of timing? And when does it reach the governor's desk? And all of that; how do you see that playing out from here?
Ralph Izzo:
My high degree of confidence in the ultimate outcome is matched by mild certainty over timing. I mean what I can tell you is the bill is posted for a vote Monday in the State Senate. The assembly doesn't have a voting session, I don't think at present scheduled until the end of March. So we're 140 year old company Praful, Salem is 40 years old, Oak Creek is 30 years old; I'm not going to sweat a couple of weeks one direction or another but I feel pretty good about the nature of the conversation and clearly, earnest desire in the part of all stakeholders to preserve those plans but timing is not something I can predict.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
My question has to do with -- on tax reform and your comments; Dan, I think you said obviously that you're not planning any equity but you said you also still have access balance sheet capacity. And I think you don't normally update till the Analyst Day but if I recall, at EEI [ph] you gave us a slide which showed something like $1.8 billion reduction or roughly halving of what it had been without tax reform. So I guess, my question is that still a good number or as you further refined your inputs and outputs, is this -- are we somewhere else?
Dan Cregg:
No, I think you're still at very much in that range, Jonathan. I think that what we tried to do at that point is highlight that -- a number that we have provided was based on large part on FFO to debt and there was a lot of FFO that came from bonus depreciations. So by either the passage of time or by tax reform because at EEI we had not had tax reform at that point in time. Unless bonus was extended the FFO was going to come down; and so that was kind of a temporal aspect and what we tried to do to your good memory was to give some indication that that was going to come down. So the order of magnitude numbers was about $3 billion at that point and we were highlighting that about $1.8 billion or so would go away with bonus depreciation; so that's still in the right ballpark and I think the right way to think about it. And when I referenced before the strength of balance sheet and the ability to fund further investments, it's still that order of magnitude.
Jonathan Arnold:
And so, that was -- if I remember the math was like $300 million FFO divided by your 18% target, and effectively that's how you got that. So presumably that means you're sort of -- as you've put all this together, you see FFO degradation roughly in that $300 million range.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, as you step out into -- I think our number were target around 2020 or so timeframe, right. So you're kind of come off of the bonus years but that's -- you're thinking about it exactly right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Holdings is on the increase in '18 over '17; is that all tax reform related or is this -- and I guess some uptick in the Long Island contract or is anything else driving that?
Dan Cregg:
No, it's not a lot. If you have a little bit lower taxes, you'll have a little bit higher income and that's not -- the $35 million we threw out is kind of a normal range; last year we had some tax issues coming through and we had made a contribution to the foundation. So I think you can look at '18 as being a more normal year.
Jonathan Arnold:
So it's more that '17 was a little skewed low and '18 is more normal?
Dan Cregg:
That's exactly right.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI.
Gregory Gordon:
A lot of my questions have been answered, and this one you may not be able to answer but I'll try. In terms of your observation from the outside looking in at how PJM gets to the answer on implementing their price reform initiatives?
Dan Cregg:
It appears that there is a bit of a cart-horse [ph] issue here and that one path is to wait for the FERC to potentially order a 206 proceeding and say that their rates are unjust and unreasonable. So my first question is, are we on a path in the current FERC docket where you believe at the end of the initial filings and the responses that the FERC could look at the evidence that PJM files to show that their rates are not appropriate? Can they actually get to a place at the end of this proceeding where they could legally say, yes, you've proven your rates are unjust and unreasonable and allow them to go ahead and change the rate? Or are we realistically on a path here where they have to make a decision on whether they're going to go through stakeholder process; and then it's whether they go through a truncated process with a Board vote or a more elongated process with a stakeholder vote knowing -- understanding that the former was what they used when they did capacity performance. It's a long question but hopefully, you get the gist.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, that was just a jist but you we're right at the start; Greg, I'm sorry, there is no way to predict that. I would point out to you though that there is multiple things going off at FERC that matter right from PJM there is the capacity market reform as fast stock pricing as price formation So there is multiple issues, there is multiple degrees of freedom, is it 205, 206 or is it a truncated process. So it just -- I think we're all visiting with the commissioners and telling them how important and I think we're all seeing the same comments come out of PJM. So I don't know what else to say at this point in time.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Christopher Turnure of JP Morgan Securities.
Christopher Turnure:
The only question that I have left is on New Jersey in nuclear support. You've answered a couple questions on it already of course, but I'm wondering if there is a couple of potential hurdles to getting across the finish line this session that you're concerned about it seems like the governor could potentially further his environmental kind of effort and the emission free our efforts long-term through this and there the some other stakeholders that seem to have come in-line here but what might we be missing that could start all the entire operation?
Ralph Izzo:
Chris, it's always nice to have quarterly calls where we're trying to explain the past but now you guys are really pushing us to predict the future, it is so hard. I mean the good news is, the Governor has publicly stated on numerous occasions that those plans have to continue to operate as a bridge to long-term renewables future. And as I said before, everyone has testified other than our competitors have begun their testimony by saying we don't want these plants to close but -- and they each have but that they put in there. So are there hurdles? Yes there are but I stay grounded on the support -- the articulated support of consumer groups, environmental groups, and the Governor, and the legislature itself and we have made progress in terms of schedule and in terms of going through the committee process. So we'll just keep making sure people know what it means if they go away. And then of course, the risk of stating obvious, all of our shareholders know that we will do what is right by our fiduciary responsibility in terms of [indiscernible] regardless of New Jersey's action.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
On PSE&G, I just want to make sure I understand the puts and takes in rates or revenue requirements that are happening this year. So on a year-over-year basis, is what you're saying is that transmission is actually down year-over-year and that's just all tax related.
Dan Cregg:
From a pure revenue perspective, but completely neutral from an earnings perspective.
Michael Lapides:
And then the distribution revenue reduction for tax is going to happen in April of this year?
Dan Cregg:
Correct.
Michael Lapides:
And that's not a full year number, that's an annualized number; so it says if they were able this year through March of next year?
Dan Cregg:
Right.
Michael Lapides:
And then the rate increase won't happen -- well, I'm going to rephrase that; anything tied to rate changes tied from the rate case won't happen until the end of the year?
Dan Cregg:
That's right.
Michael Lapides:
What about like tracker or GSMP1 or even GSMP2 related revenue changes or are you still getting those in 2018 or do the things we've talked about kind of supersede that or incorporate?
Dan Cregg:
The only thing that ends up superseding that Michael is when the rate case is done. And so they roll in as we work our way forward, they'll be done I think by the time we get to the rate case and so that kind of wrap up at about the same time. But until then we'll have roll-ins as we always have.
Michael Lapides:
So in 2018 you'll have the transmission revenue decline, obviously offset by tax. You'll have the distribution revenue decline offset by tax; and then whatever you'll have in the rate case, none of the other trackers or anything will flow in 2018 but they will kick back in 2019?
Dan Cregg:
Yes. You'll have our continuing roll-ins as they are from the standpoint of energy strong and GSMP. And then we'll have the rate case as it comes in at the end of the year. So I don't think it's any different than the norm; the only thing different than the norm the way to think about it really is the two tax return actual rate -- the return of the taxes at both, the distribution and the transmission side which has no P&L impact, revenues go down and taxes go down. Also I think our solar and energy efficiency filings are not part of rate case proceedings, they will continue to have their trackers.
Michael Lapides:
And then finally, what the tax rate are you assuming at both, E&G and Power this year? Like, what's in guidance?
Dan Cregg:
If statutory moves to '21 and then we'll have some modest moves like we normally do. So for instance the update to taxes has eliminated a production deduction, a manufacturing deduction that Power would take to the tune of a couple pennies but other than that it's still modest adjustments off of the statutory rate.
Michael Lapides:
And no significant state tax level added on top of that?
Dan Cregg:
True but no different and other than the fact that the federal benefit you get from states is going to change by virtue of the federal tax rate change.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Paul Fremont of Muziho [ph].
Unidentified Analyst:
Does your GRC filing and the rate base numbers that are in there, does that reflect the rate base numbers after-tax reform or would there be a further adjustment that we need to make?
Dan Cregg:
What we have filed within the rate case -- assume that we did have the tax rate, the tax changes come through. We had also within our base rate case filing, had a pass back of some deferred taxes within that rate case; and we will continue to do so as we make our prospective filings. Now what may end up happening in our prospective filings is some of the pass back of deferred taxes that were embedded within the filing may get swapped out compared to some of the excess taxes that we will ultimately pass back to customers. So part of the -- I guess I would say the -- as we step through the next steps of this rate case, we will have overlaid on top of it the BPU order to provide back the tax rate change which was in our base rate case. So we will adjust the base rate case in our next filing to adjust for the fact that a separate filing will be made by virtue of the BPU order outside of the rate case.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then can you at all discuss what the retail contribution was in 2017?
Ralph Izzo:
We don't break that out. It would have been very, very modest at this point.
Unidentified Analyst:
I mean, can you give us maybe a metric like how many megawatt hours did you sell and…
Ralph Izzo:
I just don't have that number. I don't think we're -- we were really -- we'd like to tell you so many people we were hiring to get going but not in megawatts we sold.
Unidentified Analyst:
So when would be sort of the first year that you would expect any type of material contribution out of that business?
Ralph Izzo:
Depends on your definition of material really. We don't break out a lot of the sub-numbers in Power, and we don't power plant by power plant; we don't give you gas versus electric. So I don't think you should expect us to break out something that is purely an organically grown defensive mechanism. There can be some changes in revenue recognition portrayals and SEC documents that may be a little more illuminating.
Operator:
And your final question comes from [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
You kind of referred to it that utility growth is a little bit muted this year but then can we expect -- what the inference I got from your comments is that we make it up in '19 because of the back end loaded nature of the rate case. That's my one question. And the second question I had was that you mentioned the 7% to 9% growth rate in the utility rate base; and that's the same number you mentioned at your Analyst Day but now you also mentioned that you have an additional $1 billion of rate base because of the tax reform. Is that $1 billion rate base included in that 7% to 9% or no? Just a clarification on those two issues.
Dan Cregg:
I think the way to think about it is that we jump off as we do every year from a higher base by virtue of the prior year's investment in rate base. So as rate base steps up, the ability to grow at the same rate kind of presupposes an incremental increase to rate base from a pure dollar amount. And if you take a look at the incremental rate base by virtue of the lower deferred taxes, and if you take a look at the bump up in the starting point year-over-year; it's a bit of an offset. So I think that you think about as going from 7% to 9% on a lower basis, 7% to 9% on a higher base. Basically, it's tougher to do but some of the deferred tax of tax reform provides that offset and leave us at comparably the same place.
Unidentified Analyst:
And what base are you using; can you just mention.
Dan Cregg:
End of '17.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then on the utility earning question?
Dan Cregg:
I think it it's essentially what we referenced before; if we have incremental spend that Ralph reference from both GSMP and Energy strong and that was going to roll into the rate case and we have rates that come in towards the end of the year, you would anticipate seeing maybe a little bit of a modest shave-off of rate of growth. What comes in 2019 will end up giving you the details on it this time next year from the standpoint of total '19 earnings guidance.
Ralph Izzo:
So I guess that was our last question. Thank you, all. Dan and Kathleen will be on the road, hopefully seeing many of you next week. Three of us will be on the road a couple of weeks after that, maybe we will see many of you then. One thing that's little different this year, you may have noticed that we moved our Analyst and Investor Conference to June; please read nothing into that other than bad scheduling on my part that required some coordination of family calendars and business calendars but nonetheless, I think we have some good things to talk to about and we'll know a lot more than about the New Jersey nuclear situation, we'll know a lot more about RPM, comments will be into FERC from PJM and other folks. So I think we have a lot of opportunities ahead of us in the next few months. With that, thank you for participating in the call and we look forward to seeing you soon. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Cregg - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Julien Smith - Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Praful Mehta - Citigroup Christopher Turnure - JPMorgan Travis Miller - MorningStar, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Shelby and I will be your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Tuesday, October 31, 2017 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 o’clock PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Time November 7, 2017. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Shelby. Good morning. Thank you everyone for participating in PSEG’s call this morning. As you are aware, we released our third quarter 2017 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachments as mentioned are posted on our website at www.pseg.com under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2017 is expected to be filed today. As you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, unless required to do so. Our release also contains certain non-GAAP operating information. Please refer to today’s 8-K or other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations and for a reconciliation of our non-GAAP operating information to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen and thank you everyone for joining us today. PSEG reported results for the third quarter having executed well on major operational and policy initiatives. Despite the impact of abnormally cool weather on sales and earnings, we remain within our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for the full year of $2.80 to $3 per share. Earlier this morning, we reported net income for the quarter of $0.78 per share, non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2017 were $0.82 per share compared with net income of $0.64 per share and non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2016 of $0.88 per share. For the 9-month period, non-GAAP operating earnings were $2.36 per share, which is the same as non-GAAP operating earnings for 2016’s first 9 months. Slides 5 and 6 contain the detail on the results of the quarter and the 9 months. At PSE&G, earnings per share declined $0.01 per share from the prior year comparable quarter. The results for the third quarter were affected by cooler than normal weather which reduced demand for electricity from air conditioning. The weather comparisons for last year are stark. For instance, the measure of average temperature and humidity was 27% below the year ago quarter and the number of hours at temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees was 69% below the year ago quarter. PSE&G’s expanded investment in transmission and distribution continue to benefit customers and had a favorable impact on PSE&G’s earnings. PSE&G’s rate base is forecasted to grow 12% in 2017 reaching $17 billion. The forecast is based on the continuation of PSE&G’s investment program to upgrade its transmission and distribution infrastructure. The upgrades will entail full year capital expenditures of approximately $3.1 billion. This figure is slightly less than our original budget of $3.4 billion and it’s the result of some projects being moved to 2018 and improved efficiency related to the cost of other projects. Based on further development of our various investment programs, we are increasingly comfortable with PSE&G’s ability to achieve growth in the rate base at the upper end of our forecast of 7% to 9% per year for the 5-year period ending in 2021. Our updated forecast assumes reasonable reception by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to PSE&G’s proposal to invest $540 million per year over 5 years to accelerate the pace of replacement of aging cast iron and unprotected steel mains and their associated services. Approval would support expansion and extension of the work currently being performed under the gas system modernization program. This filing was made in July and we expect to be a few to take action during the first half of 2018. We also intend to request the multiyear expansion of Energy Strong in the near-term. PSE&G is in the final stages of work previously approved as part of Energy Strong to strengthen and harden infrastructure damage during Hurricane Irene and Superstorm Sandy. The extension will address the remaining electric substations that need to be raised or projected. In addition, some other much needed work that enhances the resiliency of our system and reduces the risk of outages. That request similar to GSMP 2 will be consistent with the BPU’s draft regulation supporting multiyear capital investments under its infrastructure investment program. If the draft regulations are approved as we expect before year end, utilities will be able to proceed with 5-year investment programs that will allow more certainty in staffing and planning of work. Now, I want to bring you up-to-date on PSE&G’s distribution base rate proceeding. As you maybe aware following discussions with BPU staff and rate counsel and as approved by the BPU at its October 20 meeting, the deadline for filing our distribution rate case was deferred from November 1 to no later than December 1 of this year. The change in the filing date is simply an administrative procedural matter. We will now be providing the BPU with 3 months of actual data and 9 months of forecast data for the same test year that will end on June 30, 2018. A review of PSE&G’s distribution rates which is expected to result in a modest change in revenue is primarily driven by the need to recover investments made outside of cost mechanism since the last rate case, to recover storm costs and to allow PSE&G to reset assumptions for growth and sales in O&M. As part of the filing, PSE&G will also be seeking approval to decouple electric and gas distribution revenue from sales volumes and demand which would support larger scale energy efficiency investments. We believe that with the right regulatory policies, the states utilities can provide the energy infrastructure that meets customer requirements and creates a stronger and more efficient New Jersey. Now, let me turn to PSEG Power. Our PSEG Power, non-GAAP operating earnings declined by 9% to $0.31 per share from the prior year comparable quarter. A lower average price on energy hedges was partially offset by Power’s continued efforts to lower its costs and Power’s favorable gas supply position. PSEG Power also made progress on construction activities related to its three new natural gas combined cycle generation stations. The new stations will add 1,800 megawatts of efficient capacity over 2018 and 2019 and represent a reconfiguration of Power’s merchant fleet that will improve its efficiency and competitive position in the market. The design of the wholesale energy market and where the current policies provide adequate recognition of the cost for generation to be available is getting the attention needs. The Department of Energy issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking at the end of September regarding the need to properly value baseload generation with robust onsite fuel characteristics. We hope their interest in this important issue will jumpstart efforts by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to implement improvements in the market. It is encouraging to see that FERC has acted quickly. To meet the DOE’s 60-day requirement for response, FERC requested comments on the DOE NOPR to be filed by October 23 with reply comments due on November 7. A response by the FERC to the DOE NOPR is anticipated by December 11 of this year. PSEG filed comments in support of DOE’s initiative to immediately address the erosion occurring in the resiliency of our electric grid due to the risk of premature retirements of baseload generation and the subsequent trend towards greatly reduced fuel diversity. We believe that the DOE NOPR is necessary to address the challenges facing distressed yet valuable resources such as nuclear in the absence of a market solution that recognizes the attributes of fuel diversity and resilience. We recommend that measures adopted in response to the DOE NOPR should be viewed as an interim until effective mechanisms can be developed that recognized these attributes in the market. The current market design distorts efficient outcomes due to the disharmony between price signals, public policies and generation dispatch implementing the DOE measure as an interim step which stabilized the earnings for qualified units until a comprehensive market-based solution can be integrated into RTO and ISO market designs. It is worth mentioning that a significant amount of generation that competes in the PJM market already falls under cost of service regulation. We believe the DOE NOPR also provides the necessary impetus to push for further action by FERC to address longstanding price formation reforms that would avoid some of the continued distortions of competitive market results that disadvantage baseload resources. The PJM energy price formation proposal should be evaluated as part of the comprehensive solution to the challenges facing baseload units. As part of our response, we have requested that FERC promptly finalized the fast start pricing reforms and direct PJM through the Commission’s Federal Power Act Section 206 authority to submit its energy price formation proposal especially as it pertains to inflexible units. Getting energy prices right is critical to ensuring that the correct signals are sent to incent efficient investment as well as market exit. PSEG Power is making every effort to preserve its nuclear asset base, working in concert with the industry to identify means of improving operating efficiency without sacrificing safety. PSEG Power is on track in 2017 to reduce the all-in cost per megawatt hour of its nuclear operations by 10% from the average cost experienced during the prior 3 years, but energy prices influenced by the availability of natural gas have declined by a greater degree during this timeframe. State action also remains critical to prevent the loss of these units. We believe state action can be done the way that both maintains the integrity of the wholesale market and serves as a bridge until a regional federal solution is in place. A strong legal foundation has been established for state actions to preserve generating assets critical to meeting the state’s emission-related goals and to maintain the benefits to the state’s economy that comes with the safe, reliable operation of nuclear power. Successful execution of PSEG’s key policy and regulatory initiatives would assure the company’s ability to provide customers with the service, reliability and resiliency that they have come to expect. That is also affordable. Successful execution of our key policy and regulatory initiatives would also provide our shareholders with greater assurance of PSEG’s ability to meet our objectives for returns and growth. With that, I will turn the call over to Dan to discuss our financials in greater detail.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph and thanks everyone for joining us today. As Ralph said, PSEG reported net income for the third quarter of 2017 of $0.78 per share versus net income of $0.64 per share in last year’s third quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2017 were $0.82 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.88 per share in last year’s third quarter. A reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter and 9 months can be found on Slides 5 and 6. We have also provided you with a waterfall chart on Slide 11 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on Slide 13 provides you with the changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business on a year-to-date basis. I will now review each company in more detail. Starting with PSE&G, PSE&G reported net income of $0.49 per share for the third quarter of 2017 compared with $0.50 per share for the third quarter of 2016. Results for the quarter are shown on Slide 15. Net income growth in the third quarter associated with PSE&G’s expanded investment in transmission and electric and gas distribution facilities was offset by the impact on sales of weather conditions, which were substantially cooler than experienced in the year ago quarter and cooler than normal. Returns on PSE&G’s expanded investment in transmission added $0.04 per share to net income in the quarter. Incremental revenue associated with the recovery of PSE&G’s Energy Strong Investment Infrastructure program, which added $0.02 per share to net income was offset by a decline in weather normalized electric sales and in electric demand related revenues. Demand related revenues were impacted by the significantly lower peak temperature hours, which as Ralph mentioned, were 69% lower than the year ago quarter and 47% below normal. Net income comparisons were also hurt by weather conditions, which were approximately 27% cooler than conditions experienced during 2016 in the third quarter and 5% cooler than normal. Electric sales as a result of the cooler summer weather declined 8.3% in the quarter. The decline was led by an approximate 14% decline in sales to residential customers. On a trailing 12-month basis, weather normalized electric sales were flat year-over-year and gas sales on a similar basis increased 1.5% led by the commercial sector. The decline in electric residential sales reduced third quarter net income comparisons by $0.03 per share, an increase in depreciation expense of $0.01 per share associated with PSE&G’s expanded capital base was offset by a decline in O&M expense and absence of tax credits available in the year ago quarter and other items reduced net income comparisons in the third quarter by $0.02 per share. PSEG’s 5-year capital investment plan includes approximately $6 billion to upgrade and expand transmission-related facilities and investment. PSE&G filed an update of its formula rate for transmission at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in October 2017 and the update which reflects an increase in the level of PSE&G’s investment in transmission and a true-up of prior year results provides for a $212 million increase in annual transmission revenues effective January 1, 2018. PSE&G under Energy Strong and the cost mechanism therein adjust electric rates 2x per year in March and September and gas rates are adjusted each year in September. Under the cost mechanism for the gas system modernization program, PSE&G gas rates in January of each year to reflect the investment made during the prior year. The combined annual revenue increase for the full year in 2017 for these two programs is forecasted to be approximately $56 million. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G as agreed to delay the filing of its distribution rate case by 1 month to no later than December 1, 2017. This filing as you recall was agreed to as part of the Energy Strong settlement and provides the opportunity for PSE&G to recover capital investments made outside of existing cost mechanisms, an update for other factors such as storm costs and changes in sales growth in O&M. The distribution base rate filing will be based on a test year ending June 2018 and a 10.3% return on equity and provide for a mid single-digit increase in revenues still leaving overall rates below the level coming out of the last distribution base rate case in 2010. The 1 month delay in the filing hasn’t changed any of the economics associated with the request as the test year is unchanged that allows one criminal month of actual results to be included in the filing. PSE&G invested approximately $2.1 billion for the 9 months ended September 30 in electric and gas distribution and transmission capital projects designed to provide more reliable safe and resilient service to its 2.2 million customers. For the year, PSE&G currently expects to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its infrastructure. And this is slightly lower than the $3.4 billion we originally forecast for 2017. A delay in timing of some projects in greater cost-related efficiencies on others are the primary reasons for the decline in the forecasted spending for the full year. As Ralph mentioned, as a result of identifying incremental investments, we now expect PSE&G’s investment program for the 5 years ended 2021 will provide growth in rate base of 2016 year end amounts at the upper end of our 7% to 9% per year growth rate. This is driven by incremental investments in our GSMP 2 filing relative to what is reflecting in our base capital plan and planned expansion of our Energy Strong filing. These important initiatives built confidence in PSE&G’s ability to extend its growth beyond the end of this decade. For 2017, we are maintaining our forecast of PSE&G’s net income at $945 million to $985 million. Now, let’s to Power. PSED Power reported net income of $136 million or $0.27 per share. For the third quarter of 2017 compared with net income of $139 million or $0.27 per share for the year ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.31 per share for the third quarter of 2017 compared to non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2016 of $0.34 per share. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2017 was $356 million versus non-GAAP operating EBITDA for 2016 of $387 million. Our non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation and amortization. The earnings release and Slide 19 provide you with detailed analysis of the impact on Power’s non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and we have also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and the first 9 months of the year on Slide 20 and 21. Power’s net income in the third quarter was impacted by a decline in average energy hedge prices and the effect of cooler than normal weather on demand and output which offset a decline in operating and maintenance expense. During the quarter, non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons increased $0.01 per share as a result of higher capacity prices in New England and PJM. This increase in capacity prices occurred on June 1, 2017 and will run through May 31, 2018. Lower average prices on energy hedges and a decline in market prices combined to reduce non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by $0.05 per share, a 6% decline in output associated with the impact of cooler than normal weather on demand, reduced non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by an additional $0.02 per share. Power’s focus on improving operational efficiencies help mitigate the impact of the decline in energy prices. The June 1, 2017 retirement of the Hudson and Mercer coal stations and a decline in nuclear plant related O&M, improved non-GAAP operating earnings by $0.02 per share and a decline in depreciation expense associated with the retirement of Hudson and Mercer combined with a decline in interest expense and taxes improved non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by $0.01 per share. Now, let’s turn to Power’s operations. Output of Power’s generating stations declined 6% in the quarter and nuclear fleet’s output increased 20% in the third quarter to 8.2 terawatt hours as the fleet’s capacity factor improved to 96% from 80%. The quarter-over-quarter improvement was due to strong performance at Oak Creek, which operated at an average capacity factor of 98.4% in the absence of an extended refueling outage and repairs at the Salem station in the year ago quarter, which addressed the repair and replacement of baffle bolts at Salem 1 and repair of the transformer at Salem 2. The nuclear fleet’s performance for the third quarter brought the capacity factor for the 9 months ended September 30 to 95%. As mentioned cooler than normal weather limited energy pricing peak demand requirements and utilization of gas-fired combined cycle and peaking fleet, Power’s combined cycle fleet experienced a 29% decline in output to 3.7 terawatt hours while an increase in the price of gas improved the competitive position of the baseload coal fleet. As we indicated earlier this year, average hedge prices during the second, third and fourth quarters of the year were expected to decline by less than what we experienced in the first quarter and by less than the average decline of $5 per megawatt hours we anticipated for the full year. This reflects the absence of weather-related risk premium during the winter months that was experienced in prior years. Gas prices improved in the third quarter, but since Power prices didn’t move in conjunction with gas, spark spreads declined relative to year ago levels. Power’s realized spark spreads held up better than the market declining $1 per megawatt hour quarter-over-quarter given its beneficial gas supply position. And Power’s beneficial gas supply position also held gross margins in the quarter to a decline of $1.50 per megawatt hour to $40 per megawatt hour. Power continues to forecast output for 2017 of 49 to 50 terawatt hours. Approximately 86% of production for the remainder of the year of approximately 11 terawatt hours is hedged at an average price of $45 per megawatt hour. Power has hedged approximately 70% to 75% of 2018’s forecast output of 52 to 54 terawatt hours at an average price of $41 per megawatt hour. And for 2019, Power has hedged 30% to 35% forecasted output of 58 to 60 terawatt hours at an average price of $39 per megawatt hour. The average price for energy hedged in 2019 is $2 per megawatt hour lower than our prior forecast and the reduction reflects a decline in market prices. The forecast of output for 2018 and 2019 remains unchanged from prior estimates. Forecasted increase in output in both 2018 and ‘19 reflects the commercial startup in mid ‘18 of 1,300 megawatts of new gas-fired combined cycle capacity at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland and at Sewaren in New Jersey. And the forecast increase is also supported by the commercial startup in mid-2019 of the 485 megawatt gas-fired combined cycle facility in Bridgeport Harbor, Connecticut. Our forecast of Power’s full year 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings remains unchanged at $435 million to $510 million. The forecast represents non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $1.80 billion to $1.210 billion. Now, let me turn briefly to PSEG Enterprise and other, which reported net income of $0.02 per share for the third quarter 2017 compared with a net loss of $0.13 per share for the third quarter of 2016. Results for the third quarter of 2016 were impacted by the impairment of the REMA leases. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2017 were $0.02 per share compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.04 per share for the third quarter of 2016. The decrease in non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter reflects the absence of certain tax items recognized in the third quarter of 2016, as well as higher interest expense at the parent. And the forecast for enterprise and other for the full year 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings remains unchanged at $35 million. PSEG also closed the quarter ended September of 2017 with $287 million of cash on its balance sheet and with debt at the end of the quarter representing approximately 49% of consolidated capital. PSEG Power had debt at the end of the quarter representing 31% of capital. And as Ralph mentioned, we are maintaining our guidance for 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $3 per share. And Shelby, we are now ready to take questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Julien Smith from Bank of America/Merrill Lynch.
Julien Smith:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Julien. Welcome back to the fray.
Julien Smith:
Thank you so much. I appreciate it. So perhaps just to kick it off a little bit here on the New Jersey and some of the background with the politics here, I would be curious one, do you think there is potential for reform in New Jersey just given what’s already going on at the FERC level? And then secondly in that same vein of thinking, how do you think about the potential for our more comprehensive review of energy mix obviously there is some considerations with respect to solar in addition to the nuclear issue that you have addressed as well as just your ongoing utility spend in the extension and expansion of those programs. So to the extent to which that legislation might be a fixed for all, I would curious how that might be shaping up?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Julien. Yes, I do think that depending on what happens at the federal level, there remains the opportunity for New Jersey to recognize certain attributes that perhaps are not explicitly identified at the federal level. To the extent that the federal level does recognize the same attributes then you would not have redundant programs. So, an example of that might be you could have price formation improvements at the federal level just to make the market more efficient sort of along the lines of what PJM has talked about with inflexible units and that doesn’t do anything explicitly for fuel diversity or resiliency and therefore New Jersey could have an overlay on top of that. Similarly, fuel diversity versus carbon would be mutually exclusive, but if both jurisdictions recognized carbon, then you would not have two programs overlapping each other. Those are just types of examples I would think about in terms of state and federal programs being complementary versus redundant. To your second question, whenever you have a change in administration and as you implied, Governor Christie is term limited, now he is finishing his second term, has a desire on the part of the new incoming administration to establish themselves in various ways, it could be environmental, it could be the economy, it could be education and both candidates have talked about their desire to look at things a little bit differently when it comes to energy policy discussions about REGI and green energy targets and we absolutely as we have done for 110 years we absolutely will work with the incoming administration to understand their policy objectives and inform them as the implications both about positive and negatives of whatever we want to be done, because as we know things cost money to do, but if the benefits outweigh the costs, then we are eager to help them pursue it. So, yes, we will work closely with whoever the new governor is to help them formulate and execute their energy policy. Lastly, I think you are correct and if I could say implicit remarks that an ongoing investment in the infrastructure is something that is no matter who comes into office will probably be supportive of and I do think that’s correct, there is a widespread recognition on the part of regulators and policymakers that we have an aging infrastructure that’s not perfectly suited for the growing dependency that people have on electricity nowadays and the improvements we are making will certainly continue proposed, but I think will be well received.
Julien Smith:
Excellent. Thank you for that. Just a follow-up again congratulations on moving higher within your range here at the top end on the rate base side, can you talk about reconciling that against earnings and some of the key factors that might be relevant in the current rate case and/or through the current period just in an attempt to reconcile the rate base trajectory against kind of hitting the upper end of that earnings, perhaps items might include like an authorized equity ratio or other deferred items in the context that we should be paying attention to you once it’s filed?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Our last base rate case was in 2010 and we have done a very good job of controlling O&M expense, but circumstances have conspired against us by having complete actions of low growth over that time. So, even a very good job of controlling O&M expense loses out to no load growth. We have also as you know had some of the clauses anticipate this rate case. So, we had some un-recovered CapEx and we had some modest investment levels above depreciation that served to build the rate base to levels that were not commensurate with what was in the 2010 rate case. That’s a really longwinded way of saying we need some rate relief, but we have managed our overall portfolio well enough that we are describing this is a kind of middle single-digit type of rate increase, which will be far below the compounding of CPI over the last 7 years that one might otherwise have expected. So, I think it will be something that is easily explained. Now, the 7% to 9% figure in rate base is more a prospective conversation. And my last 3 minutes was really looking in rearview mirror, but now as I look out the windshield, basically we have as you know in our 7% number, programs that were wholly approved than the 7% to 9% number anticipated some fairly high degree of confidence in some program extensions. And I think what you are hearing in our voices today is that, that confidence has grown as we have been able to put our engineers to work and understand some of parts of the system both gas and electric that needs strengthening. So, as you think ahead to earnings and as you know we don’t forecast earnings beyond the current year, the three levers you have in the regulated utility are earnings grow with load, I think down we are seeing 0.4%, 0.5% is the forecast.
Dan Cregg:
Within the last 12, that’s about right.
Ralph Izzo:
And then you are subtracting that O&M, we have been pretty good at controlling that and you add to that the clauses that we expect to get recovery of. So, its two additions and one subtraction and you will get pretty close to what the utility should look like in the coming 5 years.
Julien Smith:
Got it. So, let me just make sure what I am hearing you say is it shouldn’t be all that different notwithstanding any kind of uncertainties with respect to the case?
Ralph Izzo:
I think that’s correct within the limitation of as you know we don’t smooth for pension. So, some massive change in pension funding which we don’t expect we are 92% funded right now, but the equity ratio could be adjusted in the case to – we are probably going to ask [indiscernible] more, a bit more than we used to have in the past and so yes, the case could set a new base from which that upper end of the 7% to 9% can grow.
Julien Smith:
Excellent. Alright. I’ll leave it there. Thank you all very much. Good luck.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Julien.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Praful Mehta of Citigroup.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks so much. Hi, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Praful.
Dan Cregg:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
So I got the point of this decks and the DOE being mutually exclusive just wanted to understand given, Ralph, your initial comments on the DOE initiative, how do you see it playing out like do you see it as dollar per megawatt and dollar per megawatt hour. Do you see – how do you see that actually playing out and do you see that how much in terms of benefit you expect for your facilities?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, probably, so, of course, probably I wish I could answer that with definitiveness, but let m answer it with the way which we proposed that to be played out, which may or may not have any bearing with what actually happens. In our comments to FERC, we basically said first of all bringing PJM in under Section 206 to do what PJM says needs to be done is a no-brainer. So, the inflexible unit treatment, they fast start reforms, that is long overdue what needs to be done and that is the easy part. Others have estimated that could be anywhere from $2 to $4 per megawatt hour. Others have estimated that. Secondly, as this specifically pertains to the DOE recommendations put forth in a NOPR, we have pointed out that there is a substantial portion of PJM that is competitively positioned in the market, but yet receives cost of service rates from their state regulators. And on an interim basis that can be replicated at the federal level through a version of RMR type reliability, must run type contracts. So the units that are at risk of premature retirement and that would be an interim solution until one comes up with a market-based solution that values the diversity associated with these different field types. We have proposed one method that relates to tranching of the capacity markets, others have proposed methods that relate to scarcity, pricing and energy markets for different fuels, but that permanent solution will involve a longer discussion with affected stakeholders. So really, it’s three steps, it’s hey, there is plenty of evidence already that fast start and inflexible unit price formation needs to be fixed now and can happen now, interim solution for at risk of premature retirement using a cost of service methodology can be put in place very easily and then a longer term market-based solution. There are known solutions and options that people can pursue, but a more fulsome discussion would not be inappropriate in that regard.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. That’s very helpful color, Ralph. And secondly, in terms of long-term views, I know you’ve talked about long-term the generation business probably not being as part of the consolidated business over the long-term. Now, given what’s happening with the IPP space and either company is going public or shrinking given the mergers. How do you see that playing out? Has that changed in anyway? Do you now see Power being more part of the business going forward or has that view on separation is still hold at this point?
Ralph Izzo:
No, the view still holds, but I think it’s pretty obvious to us to at least, but right now in the short-term with all of the conversations taking place at FERC, at DOE, at the state, with new entrants being formed in anticipating the Vistra Dynegy combination with all the entrants exiting in terms of public markets, anticipating the Calpine going private. I think it’s – this is a good time to just sort of wait and let something settle out of it, right. So, we are in a great shape. Power is a cash generator and earnings producer. And about 15 months, Power will be a healthy free cash flow generator. The utility has an insatiable appetite for that cash. So, we are not in any hurry during this period of tremendous change, all healthy, all very healthy given the dialogues taking place at FERC and given the dialogue taking place at the state to let it kind of play out while we enjoy the benefits of the two companies being together. That doesn’t change the fact that we continually assess our strategic flexibility going forward on whether these two businesses belong together or not. And I standby my prior belief that I think over the long-term they do diverge.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. And just to be clear that time of change is what 2, 3-year period while all of this benefit is down, do you think it’s…
Ralph Izzo:
I did make that mistake about 3 or 4 years ago. I may not be this large, first off all, but I do learn from those mistakes, I am not going to give you that, nice try.
Praful Mehta:
Alright. Thanks, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Almost it’s like the gasoline started like choking me, so my voice broke a little bit.
Praful Mehta:
Thank you, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Greg Gordon of Evercore ISI.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, it’s [indiscernible] here. Good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning.
Unidentified Analyst:
I just want to see if you could quantify the uplift in PJM price reform as it’s currently being contemplated?
Ralph Izzo:
So, Kevin what we quoted is what other sources have talked about if you just take Dan’s comments about 55 terawatt hours, every $1 is worth $55 million pre-tax. So, if it’s $2 to $4, but I just strung three if statements in there, so please be aware of that. You come up with the impact on us. Dan, did you want to add some color there?
Dan Cregg:
No, I mean I think that’s right. I think there has been an awful lot of people that have put out some numbers on it. They have actually coalesced around that range pretty tightly. So, we will see as these different initiatives get done what it ends up looking like, but I think that seems to be a reasonable place to lot of the [indiscernible]. We think it’s pretty reasonable as well, Kevin.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay. So, now how would that impact your hedging? Would you like hedge less or stop hedging ‘19 if you start to see progress or how do you think about that?
Ralph Izzo:
So we have constantly disciplined ourselves to staying within a certain range in terms of how much we hedge, we have various parameters, gross margin at risk, standard VAR calculations. We do allow our ERNT folks, our trading organization to float high and low in that range depending upon what’s going on. To the extent that the whole market anticipates price formation you should start seeing that in the forward price curve and therefore our hedging approach would stay the same. We do challenge ourselves if we think the market is missing something to make darn sure that we can figure out why the market will be missing it before we would push one boundary or another, but in general, we will run a place to where we always have which is not assume we are smarter than the market and to just stay within those limits, but again, those limits are range and we do let our folks have some flexibility within that range.
Unidentified Analyst:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Christopher Turnure of JPMorgan.
Christopher Turnure:
Good morning, guys. I wanted to get maybe a little bit more detail on the rate case last year and in particular, kind of the true-up in what’s included in that. I guess that would kind be a third quarter event after the test year ends on June 30, but I am just trying to get a sense as to how next year will shape up there and what the rate case will ultimately include in terms of timing coming out of the gate?
Ralph Izzo:
So, Christopher, we had originally planned to file November 1 per the agreement we made back in May of 2014 coming out of Energy Strong. There was widespread recognition that, that will be 2 in 10 and there was preference for 3 months of actuals and 9 months of forecast as opposed to 2 months of actuals and 10 months of forecast and that was the primary driver behind the 1 month delay, if you will. So, there is nothing mystical or profound going on there. So, the test year still ends in June of ‘18. As I mentioned before, we are expecting mid single-digit, we are requested to increase that will still keep rates below where they were in 2010 when we had our last base rate case. Remember, we have $250 million of GSMP stipulated rate base that was not covered by GSMP. We have about $100 million of Energy Strong above the $1 billion that was in the clause. We have storm recovery cost that’s I think $200 million something. That was deemed prudent, but hasn’t been returned to us yet. We have some new business that added to the CapEx. And candidly, we had some additional capital that was above depreciation levels that were accumulated over the course of the year. So, we would anticipate rates going into effect October, November of next year. And I don’t want to front-run the filing, we owe to the board staff. So, let them be the first ones to read the details, but Dan if you want add any thoughts.
DanCregg:
Just one thing, Chris, it sounded like your question was implying there would be a rate case and then there would be a true up afterwards and the way that we describe the rate case is basically it is a truing up host of the things that Ralph just talked about. So we will come out of the rate case with the rates that are set within that case and historically we’ve seen a settlement in these cases and in the statement and that may well be where it ends up going, what we’ll see. We would look for rates next fall usually these are taken about a year and we would hope to anticipate that we can get rates may be in like the October range, but it’s a little different than our transmission formula rate which is file those rates going to effect for the following year and then there is a separate true up that happens the year after that. So just for clarity sake there is no true up after the rate case, rate case itself will true up our distribution rates and we would anticipate the new rates would be in effect say October of next year.
Ralph Izzo:
And just I think most of you know this, but our rate base is roughly half transmission, half distribution right now, so tiny but more distribution.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay, that was all very helpful context and I mean that’s kind of what I was driving at there towards the end-to-end just that the distribution rate case itself would have a 9-month forecasted test year, but that itself would never be trued up during the rate case process.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so the 9 months it will be a 12 year, 12 months test year and it will start with 3 months of actuals and 9 months of forecast and as we step through we’ll update those as we go forward.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay. So you would have some update on or something during the process?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, yes.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay, got it. And then just on the request for decoupling can you help put that into context for me just kind of understanding your motivation for that and maybe how you think it may or may not be perceived by interveners?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Chris, we’ve had a series of energy efficiency filings approved over the past 7 or so years. I think they’ve totaled out about $400 million most $69 million past summer. And we have basically worked around this issue of fixed costs recovery with the stakeholders in these processes and it kept us from doing something in a much grander scale and we’ve simply decided that with the prospect of a new administration coming in and ongoing indication that there are market imperfections that keep customers from investing in energy efficiency despite the compelling economics of that that we would like to do this in a much more significant way, but we are not going to do it and suffer fixed cost losses at the options recovery of fixed costs. So given the traffic redesign involved with decoupling we thought well, since we are going in for rate case, now is a good time to raise the issue and that’s the motivation. The motivation really is not so much of this rate case, but the rate case is an opportunity to pave the way for significant energy efficiency proposals early next year.
Christopher Turnure:
Okay, great. Thanks, Ralph.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Travis Miller of MorningStar, Inc.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering if we could boil down all of these power market issues and the two buckets, the price formation bucket and the fuel diversity bucket. How do you think about the next 2 to 3 years perhaps even more of capital investment based on what happens in either of those two buckets? So, what happens to the capital investment depending on the outcome [indiscernible] capital investment based on an outcome in fuel diversity?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, I can tell you what it means for us Travis is we are not deploying additional capital into the power generation business, we have 1,800 megawatts of 6,000 to 6,500 heat rate power plants coming online and we are quite happy with that. At the risk of speaking for others, which is always going to be wrong that PJM in particular many other markets are in oversupply situation and there has been reasonable demonstration of capital discipline in the most recent auctions that have taken place. So, I think that the supply demand imbalance that exists is a separate issue that will continue to impart that capital discipline and the price formation issue is just the recognition that if you want the market to be efficient, then price should determine who runs and who doesn’t and you can’t keep having uplift payments and sidebar out of market payments guiding the dispatch of the system, which is what PJM has going on right now. I mean, price is not the sole determinant of how the systems dispatch, then that’s not a market, so that needs to be fixed, so two separate issues I guess.
Travis Miller:
Okay, then got a reason that you don’t think there would be much capital investment in general across certainly the PJM region however this turns out?
Ralph Izzo:
I think you can, without question, read into it, but that’s our point of view. Again, I don’t want to speak for others, but I know what our capital plans are, is to finish these three projects and generate some healthy free cash flow for the utility.
Travis Miller:
Sure, sure. Okay, all my other questions are asked and answered. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Patterson of Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
I am sorry. Can you hear me?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Paul. There we can.
Paul Patterson:
Sorry about that. So, just to follow-up on Travis’ question, what we often see with these market reforms is that others seem to deploy capital and I am just wondering when you see this $2 to $4 price increase with price formation we are potentially seeing that. How long-term do you think that would be or is the proposal, it’s hard for me to really completely get my arms around it? Is it such that you would still see location marginal pricing being set by inflexible units even with new entry showing up in the gas-fired area if you follow me. I mean, how should we think about sort of the sustainability of something like price formation given what we have seen quite frankly with the capacity markets and other “market reforms” to change the price that’s evolving?
Ralph Izzo:
So, Paul, I mean that’s fair, I think that one has to realize that there is cyclicality in these markets that have different periodicity associated with them, right, the cyclicality in fuel prices, the cyclicality in boom/bust cycles associated with oversupply and under supply, the cyclicality in oversupply and undersupplies determined by power plants being built and is determined by pipelines being built. So to simply say that price formation will drive prices up $3 picking the midpoint in the range that Dan and I have talked about which we don’t attest to, but simply quote from others and then automatically concluding that, that’s going to lead to people running the numbers and assuming that, that number stays there for the plants, it could be a little bit risky right. I mean, what does it mean for the timing of pipelines that may change the basis differential of gas in Western PJM versus Eastern PJM? What does it mean for future carbon constraints that may or may not be part of a subsequent administration in Washington? I think all of us want to go – some people on this call may want to go see their children in their Halloween parades, otherwise I would list a thousand other factors that should go into people’s thought process before making those kind of investment decisions.
Paul Patterson:
Okay.
Dan Cregg:
Just a matter, a market that is working better by virtue of some of the changes that need to be made is going to get you to a better answer.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with respect to the DOE proposal, I know this is kind of a sort of moon shot question I guess maybe, but how much assets should we think about is being potentially if it were to be enacted for you guys I mean how should we think about what the potential impact might be there? I mean, how many units – just how do we sort of quantify that, if that were to – I mean, I know it’s kind of a hard question maybe to answer, but I mean, how would you suggest we think about it?
Ralph Izzo:
I think Paul the way I will break it down is based upon how they have the DOE described the eligibility. So – and one of the main ones is having 90 days of fuel onsite. And if you think about what that means, that means our nuclear facilities certainly and it means our small interest in Keystone and Conemaugh.
Paul Patterson:
So, all those units would theoretically be able to get rate of return rate base sort of what you are getting at the utility kind of thing?
Ralph Izzo:
We will see where the – ultimately where the NOPR goes with it, but certainly from an eligibility standpoint, those are the units that would come to mind.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And I guess we don’t have – do we have like a – what the asset, what the day base number would be kind of if you me associated with that, you thought what I am saying I mean…
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean but there is a little bit of data related to some of the nuclear facilities in the Q, but it’s not on an asset-by-asset basis from a book value perspective.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, well, I will follow-up afterwards. I mean I was just wondering, I was just curious if you had some sort of idea there, but I don’t want to hold it up. Thank you so much. Have a great one.
Ralph Izzo:
Okay.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Michael Lapides of Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hi, hey guys, easy question your 2017 CapEx guidance, the reduction of 300 million, can you give a little more detail about what’s moving and does that get put back into a future years CapEx and if so how far out in the future?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Michael so it’s a little bit of a split, I think we had reference, there were a couple of things that were going on related to the total sum is frankly just doing some work more efficiently and I think there’s a the majority of that it is on energy strong you heard about talk a little bit earlier about $1 billion going through the clause and about 100 million that will await the rate case and you remember it's about a $1.2 billion program. So frankly, some of that work was done more efficiently and I think that’s a great outcome and then it’s great for customers and we’re pleased to be able to do it that way and we had a little bit of the same on transmission not a whole lot. And then the balance really is timing and the timing is not anything that’s going to move dollars out 3, 4, 5 years it just moving ‘17 out into ’18. So in the aggregate if you think it may be about half-and-half, half being just efficiencies that we brought to the process and about half being some capital that move into next year.
Michael Lapides:
So when you think about efficiencies, if I did half-and-half reducing CapEx Over the cycle by about 150 million and pushing out 150 in the next year kind of ballpark?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, if you think about that the 31 versus 34 that we talked about that’s about right, yes.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
That trend towards the upper end of the rate base growth through 2021 includes all of that thinking.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Okay. And then one other just thinking about transmission rate base growth and transmission capital needs and kind of how you’re thinking about whether there’s any lumpiness in some of what PJM is trying to plan around, given what happened with the [indiscernible] wheel. How are you thinking about just whether there are any lumpier or larger scale projects coming down the pike with transmission or is it all going to be just lots and lots and lots of kind of small and midsize ones?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, it’s more the latter than the former, I think if you had gone back 3 or 4 years you would have found more bigger lumpier projects a fair bit of what we are spending now is around 29 – 69 KB upgrade of 26 KB systems and that actually moves capital from the distribution area into transmission as it goes up in voltage. And those are smaller now a lot of them are still sizable projects, but smaller than for instance a Susquehanna Roseland type of project that we talked about in the past. So there are more smaller projects, projects as opposed to fewer larger projects that we seen in the past that will us forward and in fact as we think about our 2018 revenue number that we talked about even within our prepared remarks some of what you see their it’s a is a step up from what we have seen in some prior years even if you look back to last year there’s a pretty sizable step up in the amount. Some of that is incremental capital year-over-year and both the return on that capital and the depreciation the return of that capital will contribute to some of that increase, but you may recall last year part of the number that we had from a revenue increase was inclusive of a true up and that true up was related to bonus depreciation, so a couple years back, the bonus depreciation extension took place ironically goes December 31, it was roughly close to that it was certainly after we had filed our October formula rate filing. So the impact of bonus depreciation in 2015, getting it approved moved into 2016 after we had set our rates in a true up in 2017 included the reduction in rate base for those excess deferred taxes for bonus depreciation. So on a year-over-year basis you’ll see a jump in a lot of that had to do with the fact that 2017 had a true up reducing revenues for transmission related to that late enactment of bonus depreciation back in 2015.
Michael Lapides:
Got it guys. Thank you much appreciated. Maybe one last one O&M at the utility has been very strong meaning you produced O&M this year. How much of that is just one off stuff related to maybe storms in 2016 and how much of that is kind of active O&M management?
Dan Cregg:
It is the latter. It’s active O&M management and we’ve kept O&M to a very manageable rate over frankly the last number of years and we look to continue to do so going forward.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks Dan and much appreciate it.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Michael.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold of Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Arnold:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Dan Cregg:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
I have just one on the hedging data that you mentioned that you would had a $2 down in the average price to 39 after 2019 and hedged amount ticked up by 5%. Can you just remind us does that include an estimate of the pricing on the open position or is that just the average price on the hedge piece?
Ralph Izzo:
It’s the latter, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. So then I guess, following from that and between over the last four quarters it’s ticked down from 43 to 39 and the hedging is going from 15 to 30. How do we can reconcile that math?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, I think if you take a look at what the ‘19 – 2019 forwards it look like over that period, you’ve been in a $29, $30 rate and what you’re doing is you’re pulling down from a BGS price in those out years which is exclusive of the capacity components, but inclusive of the other. So it’s not an unusual trend that we start in the out year of our 3 year cycle with BGS and then we layer on flat hedges as well as some other low deals in those slack like just tend to come in at lower prices and part because the curve has come.
Jonathan Arnold:
Right.
Ralph Izzo:
But also because their energy only hedges.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Sort of those two things going on that and then but also the curve is sort of the trade-off in the quarter and then recovered a couple of dollars since is a fair to say these were sort of down in the heart of the third quarter or can you give us any sense there?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, during the quarter since our last update.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And then one other thing just on enterprises than the your guidance for ‘17 is 35 million number is that still the right ballpark going forward?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, yes, that’s right.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. I think that’s it. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Excellent. Thanks Jon. So I’ll go next, I’m sorry if we one more question otherwise I never got over our allotted hours time, but I don’t want to cut anybody off with the significant questions. So we’ll allow one more question.
Operator:
Okay. So your final question comes from [indiscernible].
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi, how are you guys doing? [indiscernible] can I just ask through Ralph, can you just talk a little bit about the legislation if when we should kind of expected or what should we expect in the last 2 months starting tomorrow I guess November starts Buxton? And then I just had a one more question for Cregg was that could you remind us how much of the transmission increase went into effect on January 1 of the year. You said you’re going to requests something like 212 million, right January 1, 2018. Could you remind us what an amount was January 1, 2017?
Ralph Izzo:
So we are just in a series of conversations with people right now, we are just making sure they understand what are nuclear plans meaning to New Jersey. And yes it is true that if New Jersey were to build a safety net, so as to guarantee or sure the continued operation those plans it would require legislation, but anything more than that would be premature to discuss right. So there is just a lot of conversations that we’re having with folks to say. If those plan were near here’s what happened.
Unidentified Analyst:
And then 2017, Dan?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, 2017 was $121 million and that was down over the last couple of years, which is 146 and 182. So it’s moved around a fair bit a lot of that is the bonus depreciation not I’m going to talked about earlier.
Unidentified Analyst:
So from $121 million we are now going to like $212 million right, am I correct?
Dan Cregg:
That’s right.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you so much.
Ralph Izzo:
So just to summarize what hopefully you heard from me and Dan this morning, our power plant construction is on budget and on schedule, three power plants that we hope to have online in June of next year and the subsequent June. We have a very healthy dialogue that we are active participants in going on under way on wholesale power market design and reform taking place at FERC, at DOE and at the state level. For the utility, we are now pointing toward the upper end of rate base growth at 7% to 9% range we are now thinking we will be able to hit that upper end of the range of between now and 2021. We have a very busy, but a constructive regulatory agenda coming up at PSE&G. We have GSMP in play. We have a rate case. We will have Energy Strong 2 in the near-term and longer term some energy efficiency. And we are happy to go over all of that and then some with you at EEI next week. I know we have a full set of meetings setup and if you are not on the meeting schedule, I am sure you can corner one of us in the hallway, they wouldn’t let me say it at the beginning of the script, but I wish everybody a Happy Halloween now and have a great holiday and a safe day. Thank you. We will see you all next week.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research)
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Jamie, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Friday, July 28, 2017, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern on Friday, August 4, 2017. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Jamie. Good morning. Thank you, everyone, for participating in our earnings call this morning. As mentioned, PSEG released earnings statement for the second quarter 2017 earlier today, and you will find the release and attachments on our website, www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2017 is expected to be filed shortly. As you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes unless required to do so. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and net income reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. We won't go through the full disclaimer statements or the comments we have on the difference between non-GAAP financial measures, but I do ask that you read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measures providing information on operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA offers a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand the operating and financial results. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. PSEG delivered solid results to the second quarter and has had a good first half, putting us on a solid path to meeting our full-year objectives. Earlier this morning, we reported net income for the quarter of $0.22 per share. PSEG's non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2017 increased 9% against the prior-year comparable quarter, reflecting strong performance at both PSE&G and PSEG Power. The results for the quarter bring non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2017 to $1.54 per share, which is a 4% increase over non-GAAP operating earnings of $1.48 per share earned in 2016's first half. Slides 5 and 6 contain the detail on the results for the quarter and the first half. At PSE&G, earnings increased $0.06 per share from the prior year comparable quarter. Continued infrastructure investment was the primary driver of this growth. PSE&G's focus remains on providing customers with what they want in terms of enhanced reliability, resiliency and green energy, while keeping bills affordable. PSE&G continues to make progress in its 2017 plan to invest approximately $3.4 billion in transmission and distribution upgrades. The investment will allow PSE&G to meet its commitment to provide customers with high quality service. Yesterday, PSE&G filed for continuation and acceleration of its Gas System Modernization Program. PSE&G is proposing to invest $540 million per year over a five-year period beginning in 2019. The program would allow PSE&G to shorten to within 20 years the replacement of its aging cast iron and unprotected steel mains and associated services. The filing is consistent with the draft regulations that the BPU issued in June regarding infrastructure investment programs. We applaud the BPU's efforts in this regard. While PSE&G has received approval from the BPU for several multiyear investment programs in recent years, they have generally been two to three years in duration, limiting the opportunity to expand as efficiently as we could with longer term programs. The BPU's infrastructure investment proposal would address this, encouraging needed infrastructure investment through timely recovery of investments and providing increased predictability by expansion of the investment time horizons of five years. The longer timeframe provides for better planning with contractors, vendors, municipalities where the work takes place, our own workforce, and of course, helps to promote economic growth in the state of New Jersey. PSE&G has made progress advancing its investment initiatives. Earlier this week, PSE&G reached an agreement in principle with the BPU Staff and Rate Counsel, which provides for a $69 million extension of its investment in energy efficiency equipment for hospitals, multifamily housing and other sectors. The agreement represents more than 90% of PSE&G's original request and will bring PSE&G's cumulative investment in energy efficiency to approximately $400 million. We believe an investment in energy efficiency programs is a cost-effective tool to lower air emissions and control the growth in customer bills. The work PSE&G has done in promoting solar energy in New Jersey was recently acknowledged by the Smart Electric Power Alliance, also referred to as SEPA, which named PSE&G the 2017 Investor Owned Utility of the Year. The award honors PSE&G for its ongoing commitment to increasing the amount of solar power in New Jersey and specifically for its work to build solar farms on landfills and brownfield sites in the state. PSE&G, as you know, will be filing a distribution base rate case with the New Jersey BPU no later than November 1 of this year. The timing of this filing was agreed to in the settlement of the Energy Strong Program. The case will provide PSE&G with the opportunity to reset assumptions on sales and O&M growth, as well as provide the opportunity to recover investments not recognized in various clauses since our last base rate proceeding, which was settled in 2010. It will also give us the opportunity to recover prior approved storm costs. PSE&G, as part of the filing, will request approval for a decoupling of distribution revenue from sales volume to support larger-scale energy efficiency investments. We believe strongly that this latter action will incentivize continued investment in energy efficiency and help lower participating customer bills. We expect PSE&G's initiatives to provide value for the customer and our shareholders. For the five-year period ending 2021, PSE&G's successful execution of its investment program is expected to result in compound annual growth in rate base of 7% to 9%. At PSEG Power, non-GAAP operating earnings increased by 6% to $0.19 per share as ongoing programs to reduce operating expenses supported earnings. PSEG Power retired its Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations on June 1 and made good progress on construction activities related to its three new natural gas combined cycle generation stations. The new stations will add 1,800 megawatts of efficient capacity over 2018 and 2019 and represents a reconfiguration of Power's merchant generation fleet that will improve its competitiveness in the market. We've seen some improvement in energy pricing in the PS zone relative to the PJM West Hub. A higher gas price with the opening up of more outlets for gas supply and the completion of work on transmission lines has released congestion and improved energy prices in the East. Power's primary market in PJM has also experienced an improvement in capacity prices. In May of this year, PJM announced the results of the RPM capacity auction for the 2020 and 2021 delivery year. Power cleared approximately 7,800 megawatts of its generating capacity at an average price of $174 per megawatt day. The average price received by Power was higher than prior auctions and continues to represent a premium to the price per capacity in the RTO. However, the number of megawatts, which cleared the auction, declined from the amount we have cleared in the past. Our results reflect the higher price resulting from the increased risk in the market associated with PJM's move to 100% capacity performance requirements, and the absence of available capacity to meet emergency situations following the retirement of Hudson and Mercer. The results of the latest auction provide stability in Power's capacity revenue through calendar year 2020. The energy markets, on the other hand, continue to be impacted by a slight demand and excess capacity which has hurt the return on our base load resources, as the average price on energy hedges declines. Power continues to advocate for policies at the federal level that would correct flaws in the wholesale market design that suppressed prices, and provide adequate recognition of the value that fuel diversity brings to a competitive wholesale market. We believe that state action is also critical and can be done in a way that both maintains the integrity of the wholesale market, and serves as a bridge until a regional or federal solution is in place. A strong legal foundation for state action appears to have been set with recent district court rulings upholding the legislative and regulatory actions in Illinois and New York. We continue to educate stakeholders at the state level about the need to preserve the diversity and resiliency of our electric generating mix. Successful execution of PSEG's key policy and regulatory initiatives would assure the company's ability to provide customers with the service, reliability and resiliencies they want and need at an affordable price in today's technologically-advanced society. Our non-GAAP operating earnings for the first half of 2017 are solidly within our outlook for the full year. So, we are maintaining our guidance for 2017's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $3 per share. We expect the growth prospects of PSE&G, the reconfiguration of our merchant-generating fleet and successful execution of our policy initiatives will allow PSEG to extend its track record of delivering value for our customers and growth for our shareholders while we maintain a strong balance sheet and credit metrics. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dan who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Ralph and thanks, everybody for joining us today. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2017 of $0.62 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.57 per share in last year's second quarter. A reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter can be found on slide 4. We've also provided you with a waterfall chart on slide 11 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on slide 13, which provides you the changes in non-GAAP operating earnings on a year-to-date basis. I'll now review each company in more details starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the second quarter of 2017 of $0.41 per share, compared with $0.35 per share for the second quarter of 2016. And results for the quarter is shown on slide 15. PSE&G's operating results for the second quarter reflected benefits of revenue growth associated with its expanded investment and the continued control of growth and operating expenses. Growth in PSE&G's investment in transmission improved the second quarter net income comparisons by $0.04 per share. And revenue recovery from investments made to enhance system resiliency under the Energy Strong and Gas System Modernization Programs, GSMP, drove improved margin and second quarter net income comparisons by $0.02 per share. And an increase in depreciation expense is offset by a reduction in O&M and other expenses. Recall the transmission revenues are adjusted each year to reflect an update of the company's investment program. PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to grow to represent approximately $7.6 billion of rate base at the end of 2017, which will be 45% of the company's year-end consolidated rate base. Under Energy Strong, electric rates are adjusted two times during the year in March and September and gas rates are adjusted each year in September. Under the Gas System Modernization Program, gas rates are adjusted each year in January to reflect the investment made during the prior year. The combined annual revenue increase in 2017 from these programs is forecasted to be approximately $56 million. Economic conditions in New Jersey continue to show steady growth, particularly in the level of employment. On a trailing 12-month basis, weather-normalized electric sales were flat year-over-year due to the impact of increased deficiency in solar net metering, which offset customer growth. Gas sales on the same basis were slightly higher with growth and demand from the commercial sector. PSE&G has had significant advances on a number of fronts. As mentioned by Ralph, the company filed earlier this week for an extension of the Gas System Modernization Program. This program, which calls for an average investment of $540 million per year, would accelerate the pace of replacement of aging cast iron and unprotected steel mains to 250 miles per year from the current GSMP pace of 170 miles per year. In addition, PSE&G reached an agreement in principle with BPU Staff and Rate Counsel, which provides for $69 million increase in the company's investment in energy efficiency equipment for hospitals and multi-family housing, as well as for new residential energy efficiency offerings for smart thermostats and data analytics. The agreement calls for a 9.75% allowed ROE and is subject to review by the BPU in the near future. PSE&G continues to advance its five-year $12.3 billion program in transmission and distribution, and continues to identify incremental investments. We expect to see growth in rate base through 2021 of 7% to 9% per year. Assumed within that $12.3 billion capital program is the extension of our existing GSMP program at the current rate of $300 million per year. Our filing yesterday reflecting investment of $540 million per year would increase our forecast capital program by investments made in excess of that $300 million per year amount. These important service quality-related initiatives build confidence in PSE&G's ability to extend its growth through its five-year capital cycle. Based on results for the first half of the year, the forecast of PSE&G's net income for 2017 remains unchanged at $945 million to $985 million. Now let's turn to Power. PSEG Power reported a net loss for the quarter of $97 million or $0.19 per share compared with a net loss of $11 million or $0.02 per share for the year-ago quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings was $0.19 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $261 million in the quarter, compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.18 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $250 million for the second quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure, as well as income tax expense, interest expense and depreciation and amortization. The earnings release and slide 20 provide you with a detailed analysis of the impact on Power's non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. We've also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and the first half of the year on slides 21 and 22. Power's non-GAAP operating results for the second quarter of 2017 reflect the benefit of ongoing programs to reduce operating expenses and an increase in output, which offset a decline in average energy hedge prices. PSEG Power's net loss for the second quarter reflects the impact of incremental depreciation and other expenses of $387 million pre-tax associated with the June 1, 2017 retirement of the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations. This incremental depreciation expense associated with the retirement of these units is now complete and will not continue into the second half of the year. An increase in capacity prices in both PJM and New England on June 1 for the 2017/2018 energy year improved quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by $0.01 per share. Growth in output improved second quarter non-GAAP operating earnings comparisons by $0.01 per share, and a reduction in O&M associated with fewer nuclear and fossil unit outage-related days in the quarter and the June 1 retirement of the Hudson and Mercer coal stations improved non-GAAP operating earnings by $0.02 per share. A decline in the average price received on energy hedges reduced non-GAAP operating earnings by $0.03 per share. And an increase in depreciation expense was offset by a decline in interest expense. Power's O&M for the remainder of 2017 is expected to compare favorably against 2016. And this reflects the absence of a refueling outage at Power's 100%-owned Hope Creek nuclear station, a decline in major maintenance expense at the fossil stations and, of course, the retirement of Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Output of Power's generating facilities increased 4% in the second quarter. The improvement reflects a 30-day reduction in nuclear refueling outage days in 2017 relative to the year-ago quarter, which improved the nuclear fleet's capacity factor to 89.6% from 82.7%. And you may recall Salem 1 underwent an extended refueling outage in 2016 to inspect and replace that unit's baffle bolts. The outage lasted through the month of July and the work required during Salem 2's recent refueling outage to inspect and replace baffle bolt was less extensive and has been completed. And no further work associated with this issue at Salem is currently contemplated. An increase in the price of gas improved the economic competitiveness of our base load coal fleet during the quarter. And during the quarter, that fleet saw an improvement in its capacity factor to 32.6% from 18.4%. Conversely, the gas-fired CCGT fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 55.3% versus 62.3% last year. As we indicated earlier this year, we experienced a more modest decline in our hedged energy pricing in the second quarter than in the first quarter, as weather related risk has not been priced into the market to the same extent as was experienced in prior years. Gas prices have improved year-over-year, but we have not seen a similar improvement in Power prices, which has led to a compression in Western hub spark spreads. In the PS zone, spark spreads have held up relative to what we experienced a year ago with an improvement in basis. Power continues to forecast the output of 49 terawatt to 50 terawatt hours for 2017 and approximately 90% of production for the remainder of the year's hedge at an average price of $46 per megawatt hour. Power has hedged approximately 65% to 70% of 2018's forecast production of 52 terawatt to 54 terawatt hours at an average price of $41 per megawatt hour. And for 2019, Power has hedged up to 30% of forecast production of 58 terawatt to 60 terawatt hours at an average price of $41 per megawatt hour. Power continues to assume deliveries in 2017 under the Basic Generation Service or BGS contract will represent approximately 11 terawatt hours of hedged volume. The forecast increase in output in both 2018 and 2019 reflects the commercial start-up in mid-2018 of 1,300 megawatts of gas-fired combined cycle capacity at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland and Sewaren facility in New Jersey, and the mid-2019 commercial startup of the 485-megawatt gas-fired combined cycle generation unit in Bridgeport Harbor, Connecticut. Our forecast of Power's full year 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings remains unchanged at $435 million to $510 million and the forecast represents non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $1.80 billion to $1.210 billion. Now, turning to PSEG Enterprise and Other, we reported a net loss of $2 million for the second quarter of 2017 versus net income of $19 million or $0.04 per share for the second quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the second quarter of 2017 were $11 million or $0.02 per share compared to $19 million or $0.04 per share for the second quarter of 2016. The net loss for the second quarter includes a pre-tax charge of $22 million related to ongoing liquidity challenges facing NRG REMA and deterioration in market conditions affecting the residual value of the leveraged lease portfolio. The decrease in non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter reflects the absence of certain tax related items at PSEG Energy Holdings and higher parent interest expense. Lastly, discussing our financial position. Our financial position remains strong. Moody's recent upgrade of PSEG's senior unsecured rating to Baa1 stable from Baa2 positive, a test to the strength of the balance sheet and the changing composition earnings with PSE&G forecast represent two-thirds of 2017's non-GAAP operating earnings. PSEG closed the quarter ended June 30, 2017 with $430 million of cash on its balance sheet, with debt representing 49% of consolidated capital. PSEG Power's debt at the end of the quarter represented 31% of its capitalization, providing a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1 times at the midpoint of 2017's Power's non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA forecast. As Ralph mentioned, we are maintaining our forecast of operating earnings for the full year at $2.80 to $3 per share. And Jamie, we are now ready to take your questions
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. One moment please for the first question. First question is with Neel Mitra with Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead with your question.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning. I was wondering if you could comment on the dispute against the transmission ROE with the 11.68% base level. And then, basically, how it was redacted and how that process went. And if you anticipate any conflicts in the future, how we should kind of interpret that?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Neil, I mean, three New Jersey towns did file and then they withdrew a couple of weeks later. We're not at liberty to disclose anything other than that. As you know, large customers always can challenge a lot of ROEs. But at this point, those are the only chance we've had.
Operator:
The next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi, guys.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Jon.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
God morning, Jon.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Just checking if it's still morning. Feels later than that.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
What have you been doing, Jon?
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Always not much. Waiting for your call. Ralph, I missed a little bit of this, I think you made some generic comments about support for nuclear-friendly market reforms and legislation. I'm curious whether you could just give us some insight into what you believe the prospects might be for moving something like that in New Jersey this fall. And also, from your perspective, what is the most effective format for something like that to take?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So, I don't want to put any kind of timing stuff, Jonathan. But I did comment that the court decisions that came out of Illinois and New York Federal Districts relevant to the states have solidified the fact that the states have the ability to act in these matters, and that's good news. We've been maintaining this is both a local and national issue, and it's good to see that it's getting national attention. But the problem, according to the forward price curve, is at New Jersey's doorstep, and there's no denying it. So, we've continued an education campaign, and I am pleased that actually in those conversations we've received just about, not exactly, but just about universal support for the continued operation of those plants. But we're going to work at all levels, primarily at the state, but also with PJM and FERC to do what we can to just make sure those plants are continuing their operation, that they don't prematurely retire and they do so with economics that is satisfactory to customers and shareholders. So, we don't have specific solutions. We're just really right now in a kind of education mode and we're pleased with the kind of feedback we're getting.
Operator:
The next question is from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Thanks so much. So, I wanted to follow up a little bit on the strategic direction, I guess, and we've talked about this before but with the Zek and the Zen (28:10) discussion happening in New Jersey, obviously, is something around the nuclear support, how do you think about strategic direction of PEG Power? And also, given what IPPs are going through in terms of a number of them either merging or going private, how do you see the long-term vision of this business? Do you still see separation as a possibility or now you are thinking of it more as an integrated platform?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, Praful, I think the best way to look at strategic direction is to look at how we're allocating our investment dollars. And if you look back over the past 10 years, you'll probably see a 75/25 split utility PSEG Power. And if you look ahead five years, that ratio has changed a little bit. Now, it's 82% PSE&G at the utility and 18% at Power. So, the strength of the company and its growth is clearly at PSE&G, but we are not making VCRs or buggy whips, right? We're producing electricity and power and people still need that, so we're constantly optimizing that portfolio. We retired 4,000 megawatts of uncompetitive assets. We're now building 1,800 megawatts of competitive assets and we're warning people about 3,500 megawatts that are in some parallel that, actually, is a greater parallel to the customer and policymakers than it is to our shareholders, that being nuclear. If there is a strategic opportunity to do something different, we'll entertain it. But right now, we're quite happy with the cash being generated by Power and the utility's ability to deploy it very, very productively, which gives us extremely healthy balance sheet, one that rating agencies are looking more favorably upon, and robust growth of the utility without any need for additional equity and solid support for dividend that continuously grow with 4% a year. So, we're in a good place.
Operator:
The next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
On the new rules at the BPU that they filed with New Jersey or they're going to file with the New Jersey register, I was wondering if you could just – is there any flavor you can give us in terms of what that means quantitatively in terms of earnings or where your CapEx prospects or what have you?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, Paul, I don't think of it necessarily as increase or decrease in earnings prospects. I think of it as greater predictability of those earnings. So, for example, we talk about GSMP and the expansion we're filing – that we filed yesterday and the reality is that our filing follow those proposed new rules. So, that makes life a little bit simpler in terms of the discussion. But, think about this for a second, GSMP-2 is a bit of a misnomer. We could just have easily have called it GSMP-4 or GSMP-5 because it's prior incarnation it was called Capital Infrastructure Program, and then, it was called Capital Infrastructure Program 2 and then it was the Gas Improvement within Energy Strong. And so we've had great dialogue with the board's staff and consistent recognition of the need to replace this aging infrastructure. But it's been going on in 18-month increments and more recently in 36-month increments. And from an operational point of view, it just makes life difficult. And I think the board realized it. Okay, we've got a 100 years and then we got it down at 30 years, now hopefully we get down to 20 years of this pipe that needs to be replaced. Why are we doing this in such small increment? So, as you can see, we filed for 9.75% on the GSMP program. It's similar to what – it's exactly the same as what we've been getting on other programs. The mechanism is what's anticipated in the rule, in the proposed rule. So it's not a question of how much more or how much less the earnings will be, but just greater predictability, greater clarity, longer duration.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. An easy one. Just trying to think about PSE&G's capital spending over the next three to four years, three to five years. And a little bit what's changed since your March analyst conference? If I go back and look at like that slide 13 I think or one of the other CapEx slides, how should we think about how different the CapEx level is today going forward for the next few years versus what you discussed three or four months, or four or five months ago?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Michael, this is Dan. I don't think about it as being very dramatically different. I think that one of the things that we sought to address and as we talked about a 7% to 9% rate base growth, and identifying things that weren't necessarily in the base plan, but were on our radar screen to layer into the back end of the plan because of the nature of how we put forth our capital plan based upon what we know. I think what you've seen is very, very consistent with that as we moved from a 7% rate base CAGR over five years and targeted a 9% rate base CAGR. One of the things we identified to be able to fill that gap was energy efficiency, and we talked today about $69 million being approved for energy efficiency. Another is GSMP. And embedded within our base plan was $300 million a year on GSMP, which is the consistent run rate, but we thought that we could expand that. And we talked about maybe another $100 million or more that we could put into that plan to be able to get us from 7% to 9%. And what you saw us file was very consistent with that. So I don't think that I would describe the capital plan as being very different. I think I would describe it as us executing on the upsides that we saw within it and being able to achieve the higher end of that range, and we will continue to look for opportunities to do exactly that same thing.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. But if I go back and look at the Analyst Day deck, and I think it was actually slide 15, that's maybe the most appropriate one or so, you kind of showed a roll-off or a roll-down of CapEx from close to $3.5 billion at E&G this year, going at $2.5 billion or even less in 2018 and beyond. Do you still think you're at that $2.5 billion level in 2018 and beyond? Or do you think the run rate might look a little bit more something closer to the 2017 level?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Well, I think I would say that, directionally, it's not inconsistent with how we have talked about it in the past. And as we step forward into these years, we have been able to find appropriate investments that the system needs to have done. And as we step through time, that number has tended to grow. So 2017 is a high year for us with respect to capital. But I do think what we represented then through some historical data and how the years have progressed through time and what we anticipated on a go-forward basis was an opportunity to grow that capital program. And I think that's what we conveyed then and, I think, we still believe that now.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thanks, Dan. Much appreciated.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Fair enough.
Operator:
The next question is from Steven Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Yeah. Hey, good morning, Ralph. You talked about the different avenues that you're watching for your nuclear generation stake (36:18), but also PJM and FERC. Could you maybe focus a little more on the PJM, FERC and DOE side and just kind of how much progress do you think is occurring there? And really, can they do enough, I guess?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So I think if you look at DOE, first. It's just good that from a policy point of view DOE recognizes a challenge with base load generation and fuel diversity. As you know, Steve, they don't have day to day regulatory authority. They have some emergency powers and various things of that sort. But most of the attention, I think, needs, from our point of view, to be at FERC than PJM. And there we've been talking about price formation for quite some time. The recent PJM proposals on how to deal with inflexible units is potentially quite helpful to the market overall in terms of the missing money issues associated with the fixed cost component of energy that it's not recovered as clearly the market design is to drive towards short run variable costs. I think that could benefit all power generators from the point of view of more accurate pricing. This bifurcated capacity market or different approaches to the capacity market can also be helpful in terms of mitigated units. At the end of the day, there are some policy objectives that states and others have sought to pursue, typically environmental, but there may be resiliency policy objectives that unless they are explicitly targeted by FERC and PJM, the states will continue to reserve that right to go forward. So, I guess what I'm saying is that we're encouraged by the reception at DOE and the administration at the importance of this reliability, national security, fuel diversity issues. It's going to be up to FERC to translate that into a price. And there is a recognition that price formation has not delivered on the workshops of two years ago, all the benefits it can. What is missing in everything I just described is the national levels of price on carbon. We don't anticipate that being made explicit in the near term. And that's probably going to be the domain that states will continue to probably add incremental value in terms of the environmental benefit. So, to me, Steve-
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Thanks.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
-as I said, we're not shy of our retiring plants. Hopefully, we've proved that. But in the case of nuclear, that's a state, local and national disaster in the making and we're just working double time every way we can to point that out to people that this is something that they don't want to let happen, and then say, 5 years or 10 years now, oops, what were we thinking?
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you for the follow-up. Just at the Analyst Day, in addition to the incremental items you've added, you had the expansion of ESMP or a continuation. Is that still something you see as possible? What should we be thinking around timing there and size-wise? Anything you can give us on that.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Sure, Jonathan. So, that one is more of a fourth-quarter event. This year, it'll be after the rate case is filed. The rate case will be over by then. You should think of that in terms of the balance of Energy Strong. If you remember back to Energy Strong, we asked for close to $3 billion. And because we had never done anything like that before, the board staff suggested that we just do the most critical components first and see how it goes. The board then actually hired a third-party consultant to oversee our work, and that's gone very, very well. So, I would say it could be an additional $200 million to $300 million per year nominally in terms of electric system modernization that we would be filing in Q4. Well, probably in Q1 of next year, file our large – much larger energy efficiency program. So, there is no shortage of things that need to be done, some – continue the aging infrastructure replacement, for further enhancement of the grid, and balanced by the energy efficiency to help those participating customers control their bill.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Would that be a five-year type program, Ralph, the $200 million to $300 million you just-
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. No. You should expect in all of these cases we will comply with the infrastructure program rule – proposed rule. So, I keep stumbling on my word. So, yes. It would be a five-year for the current proposed rule.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So, we may see more about that in 4Q?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yes. You will.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
May I just ask one other thing while I'm on?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Sure.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
You're up 4% in the first half. But your guidance is still midpoint. It's kind of flat in the year. Are there other specific drivers in the second half that you can point to that would sort of tamper things back down?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
There's two things going on. Number one is that I think was only one year being the exception that we changed our numbers after Q2. It's also 72 degrees in New Jersey today on July 28, so the third quarter although not a big pricing event for Power is still a big volume event for Power. And Dan is waving at me. He may want to add to that.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Just last year there was a little bit of tax help that we saw towards the end of the year that we may not end up seeing for this year. So, that and just some of the pricing and what we'll see over the summer, and we talked a little bit within the prepared remarks about how prices are coming down. So, I would point to that and some tax help we got at the end of last year.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
You got it, Jon.
Operator:
The next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Thank you. I was wondering if we look out a few years and if you get the nuclear support that you're thinking about, wherever that comes from, what would you think about upgrades and investments in upgrades at your existing plants?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, Travis, good morning. We are actually looking at a very modest upgrade (43:17). And it's mostly, I don't mean to diminish this paper exercise, it's the way in which one can measure, monitor, and calculate operational risk associated with different operating parameters. So, at the risk of stating the obvious, you're not going to see any major equipment investments at the same time that I'm talking about the forward price curve coming down and putting tremendous economic pressure on the plants. But, to the extent that we have the same staffing levels and the same overhead costs and we can squeeze out a couple more megawatts by doing better probabilistic risk assessment, we're going to do that. We do have a couple of up rates going on at our fossil plants that we've announced in the past at both our Bergen and our Bethlehem plants and those are a bit more meaningful in terms of their size. But at the nuclear plants right now at Salem and Hope Creek, we're just looking at Hope Creek and it's about 18 megawatts, I think, is the exact amount.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that's right. And so, the incremental benefit that you would get versus the incremental cost is very favorable given the fact that you have the base plant running as Ralph mentioned.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Sure. Okay. Could up-rates and promises to expand nuclear power? Do you think considerably (44:33) be part of some kind of negotiation state legislative level?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, from the point of view that as we just try to suggest getting a few more megawatt hours without increasing the cost is helpful. Let me be 1,000% clear. We are working our tails off to make sure we don't need any help from anybody, right. The most important thing is to control what we can control and make sure we run those plants as well as we can, as at low a cost structures as we can so that even with the flaws in the market, they can still win. And if that means paper up-rates, then we'll do that. If it means more staff optimization, we'll do that. And so that's job number one, two and three. The comment I made before about near universal desire to see those plants operate is accurate. Obviously, our competitors don't want to see those plants operate. And that's a very rational position on their part. But I don't think we get the same universal reaction to new nuclear or building additional plants and not that we would have even considered that in the current gas price environment. So, I think to the extent that getting more out of the plant is something that helps make the more competitive answers, yes, but no one has talked to us about we'll build another plant and we'll let you keep these running. I mean that's not part of anybody's calculus right now.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Yeah. Okay. Great. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo and Mr. Cregg, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Jamie. So, thanks everyone for joining us and we hope you- we genuinely hope you're as pleased as we are with the results we've had here today, and also hope you're as encouraged as we are with the growth prospects that we have, anchored by the agility with programs such as GSMP. As Dan said, it's just a few months ago, we thought that was probably going to be a $300 million a year program and maybe winding down in 2019, and now we have some good hopes that it could be a $500-plus million program and have five years of life after 2019. So, as always, Kathleen and Carlotta and the rest of the team are available to you for follow up. And with that, I'll just wish you a very happy and pleasant rest of the summer and we'll see you I'm sure on various different venues. Thanks everyone. Take care.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Antoine Aurimond - UBS Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Daniel Yu - Goldman Sachs & Co. Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Dennis and I will be your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, April 28, 2017, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2:00 PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Time on May 5, 2017. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated:
Thank you, Dennis. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in PSEG's call this morning. As you are aware, we released our first quarter 2017 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachments are posted on our website, www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2017 is expected to be filed shortly. The disclaimer statement regarding forward-looking statements details the number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made therein. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even in light of new information or future events unless required by applicable Securities laws. We also provide you with commentary with regard to the difference between non-GAAP operating earnings and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA and net income reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. I am not going to read to full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between non-GAAP operating earnings and GAAP results, but I do ask that you read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measures providing information on operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA offers a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand operating and financial trends. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service. And joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Thank you. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you everyone for joining us today. As you saw earlier this morning, we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2017 of $0.92 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.91 per share in last year's first quarter. Our GAAP results for the first quarter of $0.22 per share reflect the decision we made last year to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating units, which will happen in June of this year. Results also reflect an increase in the reserve for the impairment of our leveraged lease investment in the Keystone, Conemaugh generating stations. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter benefited from the ongoing successful execution of our investment program. Growth of our regulated utility business and effective cost management offset the impact on Power's earnings of a continued decline in energy prices. Our regulated utility business is expected to grow 8.5% in 2017 to represent two-thirds of our full year 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $3 per share. We're off to a good start for the year by maintaining our usual focus on operational excellence, disciplined investment and financial strength. We've also increased our attention on achieving a few key policy objectives. First among these is getting recognition for the value of our nuclear-generating assets. As you know, nuclear generation is facing challenges that are real and serious. We've initiated discussions with key stakeholders at the federal and regional levels and here in New Jersey to improve awareness of the importance of nuclear power. Nuclear is a clean energy resource that provides nearly 97% of the energy that is free of air emissions and is generated in New Jersey. Nuclear supports resiliency of the electric grid by adding to a diverse fuel mix and avoiding the potential reliability problem of putting all of our eggs in one fuel basket. And nuclear provide significant benefits to the regional economy. We've been working on many fronts to secure the long-term viability of our nuclear generation assets. We've reduced staffing and cut expenses at our nuclear facilities. We've also advocated for change in wholesale market price formation that more accurately recognizes the value that these and other generation resources bring to the customer. The common sense reality is that these plants are valuable for a variety of reasons. Nuclear-generating facilities have unique characteristics that enhance the resiliency of the system and support public policy objectives that are not recognized or priced in current markets. While we commend the efforts that FERC is taking on price formation, time is running out for a wholesale market solution. We believe progress in recognizing the value that nuclear brings to the environment, the resiliency of the grid, and the economy of the region has been and will take place at the state level. Enhancing the resiliency of the power system has become an important issue for our company. Superstorm Sandy was the wakeup call that affected our thinking about what is important to our 2.2 million electric customers and 1.8 million gas customers. PSE&G's $12.3 billion base capital investment program over the next five years is focused on ensuring continued reliability and on anticipating, preparing for, and recovering from high-impact, low-frequency events. PSE&G's investment program includes $6 billion dedicated towards transmission system improvements. $3 billion of electric distribution investment is focused on lifecycle investments to ensure continued top quartile reliability performance and even better customer service. Another $3 billion is focused on modernizing and upgrading cast iron and unprotected steel gas mains. And lastly, $250 million is directed to investments in solar and energy efficiency programs that support New Jersey energy policy objectives. PSE&G's base capital program provides the opportunity for annual growth in rate base of 9% through 2019 and annual growth in rate base of 7% for the five years ending 2021. The expansion and/or extension of existing capital programs could lift PSE&G's five-year capital program by up to $1.5 billion and raise the growth in rate base from 7% to 9% per year over the five-year period. At the beginning of March 2017, PSE&G filed for approval to extend its investment in energy efficiency. This request represents a capital investment of $74 million and you should expect to see PSE&G request an extension of its existing program to replace gas mains and to modernize its electric distribution system later this year. PSEG Power's construction of 1,800 megawatts of new efficient combined cycle gas-fired capacity within PJM and New England markets is underway at a total cost of $2 billion. Earlier this month, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection issued the last set of regulatory permits necessary to begin construction of Bridgeport Harbor 5. The Keys Energy Center in Maryland and the Sewaren Station in New Jersey are scheduled to begin operation in mid-2018. The Bridgeport facility is scheduled to begin operation a year later in mid-2019. The retirement of Hudson and Mercer, and the commercial operation of the new gas-fired, combined-cycle gas turbine capacity repositions Power's portfolio more toward efficient, cleaner assets. Our company-wide investment program is focused on building an infrastructure that improves system reliability. We will update you throughout the year on our efforts to preserve the value of nuclear energy for New Jersey and to secure approval for regulatory mechanisms that provide customers clean, affordable, resilient energy supply. As mentioned, we are maintaining our non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for the full year of $2.80 to $3 per share. With the support of our dedicated 13,000-plus employees, we expect to be able to successfully deliver on the promise of our investment program that should provide growth for our shareholders and a sustainable energy future for our customers. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dan, who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us this morning. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2017 of $0.92 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.91 per share in last year's first quarter. On slide 4, we've provided you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. We've also provided you with information on slide 8 regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. And in addition, slide 9 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. I'll now review each company in more detail, starting with PSE&G. PSE&G, as shown on slide 11, reported net income for the first quarter of 2017 of $0.59 per share compared with $0.52 per share for the first quarter of 2016. PSE&G's first quarter results reflect the ongoing successful execution of its growth initiatives and control of operating expenses. Growth in PSE&G's investment in transmission improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.03 per share. Revenue recovery of investments made to replace gas distribution mains under the Energy Strong and Gas System Modernization Programs improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.02 per share, and the reduction in O&M expense also improved quarter-over-quarter net income comparisons by $0.02 per share. PSE&G implemented a $121 million increase in transmission revenue under the company's FERC-approved formula rate on January 1, 2017. Our transmission revenues are adjusted each year to reflect an update of the company's investment program. PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to grow to represent approximately $7.6 billion of rate base at the end of 2017 or 45% of the company's year-end 2017 consolidated rate base. Gas distribution revenue increased by $16 million, with the completion of gas main replacement work approved under Energy Strong and GSMP. Under Energy Strong, electric rates are adjusted two times during the year in March and September and gas rates are adjusted each year in September. And under the Gas System Modernization Program, gas rates are adjusted each year in January to reflect the investment made during the prior year. Annual revenues in 2017 under both of these programs are forecasted to increase by approximately $55 million. Actual and weather-normalized electric sales increased about 1.5% in the first quarter compared to the year-ago period. The increase is due to a spike in industrial use from one customer that use PSE&G service in 2017, while the dedicated generation plant that normally serves the customer was out in an outage. So, the improvement in sales to this customer did not lead to an improvement in margin and actual and weather-normalized from gas sales increased about 3% on the quarter, and the high volatility of the weather experienced over the last few winters challenges the weather normalization calculations. But over the trailing 12-months period, we view weather-normalized electric and gas sales as essentially flat. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G filed with the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities in March of 2017 for approval to increase its investment in existing and new energy efficiency programs. The programs, if approved, would represent a capital investment of $74 million. As part of the petition, PSE&G is also seeking recovery of additional administrative and other costs, including costs associated with the enhancement of the information technology system. The petition has been deemed complete, which starts a 180-day clock to complete a decision on the filing. And this is expected during the third quarter. PSE&G invested $752 million in capital expenses during the first quarter of 2017 and is on track to invest $3.4 billion in 2017 on transmission and distribution infrastructure. And we are maintaining our forecast of PSEG net income for 2017 of $945 million to $985 million. Moving to Power, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.30 per share and adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA of $359 million. This compares to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.36 per share and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $409 million for the first quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure, as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization expense. The earnings release and slide 17 provide you with detailed analysis of the items having an impact on Power's non-GAAP operating earnings relative to net income quarter-over-quarter. And we have also provided you with more detail on the generation for the quarter on slide 18. PSEG Power's net loss for the quarter reflects the impact of incremental depreciation and other expenses of $564 million pre-tax associated with the decision to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations on June 1 of this year. Power's results in the second quarter will also be impacted by incremental depreciation expense associated with the early retirement of these units. A decline in the average price received on energy hedges reduced Power's quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by $0.09 per share. The non-GAAP quarterly operating earnings comparisons are also lower by $0.01 per share due to a decline in generation output and by $0.01 per share increase in the reserve-related to a FERC investigation of Power's cost-based bids that began in 2014. The impact on non-GAAP operating earnings from these two items was offset by a $0.02 per share improvement in off-system gas sales. A reduction in O&M as a result of cost control efforts at the nuclear stations improved non-GAAP quarter-over-quarter operating earnings comparisons by $0.03 per share. Power's O&M for the remainder of 2017, particularly the second half of the year, is expected to compare favorably into 2016, given a reduction in pension expense, a decline in major maintenance expense at fossil, the absence of a refueling outage of Power's 100% owned Hope Creek nuclear station, and of course, the June 1 retirement of Hudson and Mercer, as I previously mentioned. Now, let's turn to Power's operations. Output from Power's generating stations declined 2.8% in the first quarter from year-ago levels. Quarterly comparisons were affected by one fewer day of operation this year versus last year, due to leap year, and also reflect the adverse impact on energy pricing and volatility from above normal temperatures during the first two months of the year. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 100% in the quarter, producing 8.4 terawatt hours of energy. Power's combined cycle fleet experienced a decline in its average capacity factor during the quarter to 41.8% from 51.7%. For the quarter, the combined cycle fleet produced 3 terawatt hours of energy as the coal-fired fleet produced 1.4 terawatt hours of energy. During the first two months of the year, the power markets were characterized by warmer than normal weather, reducing overall demand and lowering price volatility. The impact on realized energy pricing from the decline in our average price on energy hedges was notable in the first quarter of 2017 versus 2016. As previously disclosed, our average hedge price on energy for 2017 is expected to decline from $51 per megawatt hour in 2016 to $46 per megawatt hour in 2017. The impact on realized energy prices in the first quarter of 2017 reflected a larger decline than the average for the year, contributing to the $0.09 per share impact from recontracting I mentioned earlier. This quarter-over-quarter decline was related to higher seasonal pricing on contracted basis in the eastern PJM region realized in the first quarter of 2016. For the remainder of 2017, we anticipate a more modest decline year-over-year in energy pricing than what we experienced in the first quarter and a lower decline than what we are forecasting for the full year. Although Power's access to low-cost shale gas continued to provide a benefit to its margins relative to the market, power did experience a compression in spark spreads during the quarter, which had an impact on output from the gas-fired combined cycle fleet. The market has sustained higher prices since the end of February and the improvement can be attributed to higher gas prices and a reduction in congestion with the completion of some transmission work in the area. Based on the milder weather to-date, Power's forecasting output for 2017 of 49 terawatt hours to 50 terawatt hours and the forecast is modified slightly from our prior forecast of output for the year of 49 terawatt hours to 50 terawatt hours. The change in output is primarily the result of a mild winter and the impacts on output on the combined cycle fleet. The nuclear fleet's full year forecasted capacity factor is unchanged at 92%. Salem 2 is currently in a refueling outage that's forecasted to be longer than normal, given the decision to proactively address any needs related to the unit's baffle bolts. Approximately 90% of production for the remainder of 2017 is hedged at an average price of $46 per megawatt hour. Power has hedged approximately 55% to 60% of its forecasted production for 2018 of 52 terawatt hours to 54 terawatt hours at an average price of $41 per megawatt hour. And for 2019, Power has hedged 20% to 25% of its forecasted production of 58 terawatt hours to 60 terawatt hours at an average price of $42 per megawatt hour. Power continues to assume BGS volumes will represent approximately 11 terawatt hours in 2017, which is consistent with 2016 volumes. Power's average hedge prices don't include any anticipated future benefit from its retail marketing efforts. We continue to forecast non-GAAP operating earnings for Power in 2017 of $435 million to $510 million. And the forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings represents an adjusted EBITDA of $1,080 million to $1,210 million for the full year. Now, I'll briefly address the operating results from Enterprise and Other. For the first quarter, Enterprise and Other reported a net loss of $15 million or $0.03 per share for the first quarter of 2017 compared to net income of $17 million or $0.03 per share for the first quarter of 2016. The net loss for the first quarter of 2017 reflects the impact of a pre-tax charge of $55 million associated with the continuing liquidity issues facing NRG REMA. The charge reflects our current assessment of the ongoing matter. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the first quarter of 2017 of $17 million or $0.03 per share were unchanged quarter-over-quarter from the first quarter of 2016 and reflect contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island and certain tax items at PSEG Energy Holdings. And we continue to forecast full-year 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings from Enterprise and Other of $35 million. With respect to financings, PSE&G closed the quarter with $193 million of cash on the balance sheet and with debt at the end of March of 2017, representing 47% of our consolidated capital. Debt at PSEG Power represented 30% of its capital at the end of the quarter. In March 2017, PSEG Power and PSE&G extended the expiration dates on $4 billion of credit facilities to March of 2022. At the end of March, total available credit capacity was $3.6 billion. We remain in a position to finance our five-year base capital program of $15 billion without the need for the issuance of equity. And we remain in a position to finance an expansion of our investment program also without the need to issue equity. Power's cash flow is forecasted to improve following the completion in 2018 and 2019 of construction of the three new combined cycle units, with the decline in annual capital spending at Power to $200 million a year from 2017's capital budget of $1.2 billion. PSE&G's internal generation of cash is expected to remain strong throughout the forecast period. We continue to forecast non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year at $2.80 to $3 per share. That concludes our prepared remarks and now I'll turn the call back over to the operator for questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. And your first question is from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Jonathan.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I was curious about the REMA item. When I look back to the Analyst Day, I think you had said, when you were talking about guidance, you'd highlighted this as a write-down of what you described as the residual value. So, is it safe to assume that you have no further exposure?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Jonathan, I think we're in a good place right now. The best information that we have is what we have booked to, really based upon what we know about the liquidity issues at REMA, the issues surrounding the facilities themselves, and basically the alternative outcomes through our discussions with them. So, we think based upon what we know right now, to the best of our information, we've recorded to where we think things will be when all is said and done.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Can you share sort of how much still on the books?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Between Keystone and Conemaugh, there's about $55 million of total investment that remains on the books.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, you've written off basically half of what was there?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
That's correct. Yes.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. Thank you. And then just on the $0.01 charge you took for the FERC investigation, not much happened on that recently. And can you just clarify what's going on with that given the situation at FERC at the moment, and what led to that charge?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So, as you know, this has been an issue that's been around for a while and 2014 is when it began, and there was that $25 million charge that was taken in 2014. We are moving forward with it. There's still a fair bit of uncertainly that remains, but based upon where we are right now within the investigation and discussions, the lower end of the range of our exposure as we've seen it has raised to $35 million from that $25 million number that we had. And that was the driver behind the reserve that we know.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, you were still booking the low end and that's up $10 million.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
That's exactly right.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, great. That's all I had. Thank you.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Okay.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Antoine Aurimond - UBS:
Hey, guys. This is Antoine Aurimond calling for Julien. How are you?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good, Antoine. How are you?
Antoine Aurimond - UBS:
Good. First, after this quarter, how do you see BGSS margins trending for the full year? And more generally, how do you see gas basis in PJM is evolving in light of the recent pipeline delays?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Your first question was on BGS or BGSS?
Antoine Aurimond - UBS:
BGSS. The margins for the full year.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So frankly, as we look that product in particular, most of what we'll see throughout the year takes place in the first three months of the year. So, I would say that the BGSS component of our business really will have minimal impact until we get into December, so not a whole lot of variability that we would anticipate until we get adjusted to the fourth quarter there. We have seen some delay in pipelines. I agree on that front, but we have seen some movement within the basis as well. I think that over time as we continue to see more takeaway capacity built, we will see some levelization of gas prices over time.
Antoine Aurimond - UBS:
Okay, got it. And lastly, with regards to the Con Ed wheel, given that Con Ed has been dropped out and that NYPA could possibly follow, do you see any risk of the transmission carving allocated to your utilities customers?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, that's a subject of ongoing dispute at FERC. I think the bottom line for us is that there's no question about recovery of investments that we make. But you're right, Antoine, there will be some healthy debate over who pays that. But at the end of the day, we are getting paid.
Antoine Aurimond - UBS:
Okay, got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Thanks. One in the weeds question and one higher level question. It looks like you have slightly lower – not just slightly lower from output for this year, but also slightly lower projected output in the subsequent years. It doesn't look like it would impact margin much, but I'm just wondering is that a function of sort of your dispatch model just being updated for current forwards?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. That's all it is, Greg. I'd say the most solid impact is what we've seen year-to-date on the winter. So, the lower end of that range stay the same. We just took the top-end down by 1 terawatt hour.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay, great. And then, I know that you obviously have state level activity with regard to what you believe to be the right infrastructure agenda for your customers. But at the same time, you've got this federal move with Rick Perry at DOE opening up a process. And my understanding is that FERC may consider a stakeholder process that ultimately develops into potentially a 205 proceeding to amend their tariffs to deal with the proliferation of subsidies. Can you comment on all those on whether you believe that – how you think those tensions ultimately get resolved and whether or not that's accurate.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Greg. Yeah. We're following the DOE studies through EEI, which is we're paying very careful attention to what the future prospects are for base load generation, primarily in organized markets, but in general around the country. And the discussions we've had at every level, right, so we've been talking to people at federal levels, we've been talking to people at PJM, we've been talking to people at state, is that regional and national solutions are preferred, but given the time that's required for naming of FERC commissioners, getting your arms around the value of fuel diversity, getting your arms the value of the environmental impacts of NOx, SO2, carbon, et cetera, that states should be in the lead on those attributes that they value and those programs should go away as regional and federal programs take over. So, it's not a question of holding off on everything until we get clarity from DOE by any means.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. Do you think it's plausible that there could be a stakeholder process that ultimately results in a request for a tariff change at FERC...
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I think it's possible. Sure.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
... for the PJM auction in 2018?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
It's possible. Sure. We all know what the time frames are at PJM and at FERC, but, yes, it is possible.
Greg Gordon - Evercore Group LLC:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Just following up the nuclear discussion, wanted to understand what kind of timeframe do you have in your mind around getting some resolution on this? If there is no support or no exact or any other form of nuclear support, how long are you willing to wait before you take a decision on the nuclear assets?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
We haven't drawn a line in the sand, Praful. I mean, our units are hedged. And as we've said publicly that our – because of those hedges generating positive cash flow, however, as one looks at the forward price curve, as those hedges roll off, that cash flow becomes more and more challenge. And in fact, if you believe the forward price curve out three years, those cash flows turn negative. One then has to ask, well, what do you think will happen to the price curve beyond that? So, rather than draw a line in the sand, what we've said is we ought to work collectively with people to make sure that the attributes of nuclear are being compensated in the market. And that to the extent that those attributes are not being compensated, they should look at providing a needs tests for nuclear plant to say, okay, if they are in fact not profitable and are at high risk of going away and we will regret losing those attributes, then we want to make sure they don't go away. So, I think what we've tried to go out of our way to say is the day we announce a date, we are in a mode that is a place that nobody ought to want to be, because these assets are too valuable to the state of New Jersey for us to announce a date. So, we're doing all we can to avoid having to do that.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Fair enough. And secondly, just a detail question. On the hedges, it look like the percentage hedge obviously comes down over time, but the price also is down, which you would expect from the forward curve down from 46% to 42%. I guess the question is, generally when you're hedging in the forward market, or hedging better periods of time, peak periods or peak hours, what do we take away from the hedge price? Does that mean that the average is actually even lower than that? Just trying to get a sense for what the 42% really means in terms of forward achievable prices for 24/7?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Maybe two ways to think about that, Praful. One is – I don't know that I would say that we are necessarily hedging the highest prices earlier and then moving down the scale. There's on-peak and off-peak hedges that get put on without a particular pattern necessarily. So, I would diffuse you of your first thought that it's definitely the higher prices. That said, as we look to the outer years of our disclosed hedge prices and into 2019, given that we've had some BGS auctions that have rolled through, some of that 2019 volume is based upon BGS and we decomposed the BGS price and pull out the capacity components, but there are some other non-energy components that are in there that give a little bit of a lift to that price. So, maybe not so much the fact that it's the higher price or the on-peak prices that have been hedged, but more so that some of the BGS volume that rolls into 2019 shows that price to be what it is. But that's the makeup of it.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. That's very helpful color. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. I just – I don't know if you're willing to give us a sense what would be the potential construct of that support for nuclear plants in New Jersey. It's my understanding that it wouldn't resemble the one from New York or Illinois. Would it be more like what we're seeing in Connecticut or something completely unrelated? Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Angie, I would say right now we're in what I would call an education phase. And the only thing that we know for a fact in New Jersey is that if New Jersey were to agree to the importance of nuclear from an environmental point of view, from a regional economy point of view, from a fuel resiliency point of view is that it would require legislation. And I just have a lot of confidence that New Jersey will give it serious thought. I mean, the issues are pretty clear here. If those assets are not earning their cost of capital over the long term or if they turn cash flow negative, we'll retire them. That will be a very painful decision given the impact it has on New Jersey, but, unfortunately, it's a very clear decision for us from a shareholder point of view. So, now, the question is how do policymakers feel about the increased emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, single-fuel dependency. And I thank you for your question. This is not a slam against natural gas. This is not a projection that natural gas won't be abundant for decades to come. It's not a slam against renewables. This is the case for the value of fuel diversity, the value of not putting all your eggs in one basket, the value of something that does not have air emissions, the value of something that has, candidly, really good jobs, and obviously the laws of economics, supply and demand. You cannot remove 40% of the supply without having an increase in prices in New Jersey. And that's something New Jersey consumers should not like. So, once the plants become quote uneconomic, they still have enormous value to New Jersey. So that's what we're doing right now. We're just educating people about that. To us right now, they are still positive cash flow generators.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
So, just following this line of thinking. So, basically, the plants become free cash flow negative come 2020?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Well, if the forward price curve is realized, the answer is yes.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And so -
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
And we do not try to outguess the forward price curve. As you know, we run this company in accordance with a hedging program that feathers in the forward price curve. Now, we're working hard to lower our cost at nuclear and try to fight against that stream, that current.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. But in light of that, right, you said that it's still a discussion phase in New Jersey. We're going into a capacity auction, which will cover the summer of 2020 and beyond. You have a set of assets that based on observable curves is free cash flow negative. So, what do you do going into the auction?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Of course, we discuss that all the time and you know us well enough, Angie, to know that we're not going to disclose that. You're really asking how we we're going to bid the units in RPM and we just never talk about things like that.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. I had to try. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
But it's worth trying though.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Daniel Yu with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Daniel Yu - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi. Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Daniel.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Daniel Yu - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Two parts to my question on Power and market fundamentals. First, are there major supply changes in New Jersey that we should keep in mind in addition to the retirement of Hudson and Mercer and the elimination of the Con Ed wheel? And second, in your view, what are the impacts of these supply changes on the energy and capacity markets?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
I mean, I think the one that we would point to is we have our Sewaren plant that's coming in, but maybe I would say you have the RPM auction that has happened for the past couple years. You can see what has come forth from the standpoint of new capacity there. And in the last auction, there was nothing that was in EMAAC. But that's your best indication as to what's going to happen in the near term, near term being three years out coming out of the capacity auction given indication. So, you'll be able to see what supply and demand has committed to the market three years out. And then, the other thing that we look at that we talked about briefly before is just overall supply of gas and pipeline capacity in the region.
Daniel Yu - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Chris Turnure with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. I know that you had a couple specific things that you wanted to see changed or things that you thought were, I guess, unjust or unreasonable in regards to the PJM parameters in the transmission capacity in the eastern region. Given the changes that were announced a couple of weeks back, did they fully reflect those changes or partially reflect those changes or can you give us some color there?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yes, Chris, partially only. We're still confused and our technical people have a different point of view than what was published by PJM, in particular on the CETL/CETO parameters as it pertains to the PS Zone, and in particular, PS North. So, we are going to follow the appropriate communication channels to PJM. And I'm sure that they will post our communications with them on Oasis or whatever other mechanisms they choose. So, it was better the second time around, but we still either need to be educated or PJM needs to make some further changes.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And when you say that, are you referring to changes for future auctions or something that could impact this year?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, think it's more than likely for future auctions, Chris. I've lost track of time. I think today's April 28 and the auction starts in two and a half weeks. So, I think we're talking about future auctions.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And then, I know you don't have that much capacity up there, but the ISO-New England proposal from I think last week was pretty interesting. Do you have any preliminary thoughts on what the impact of that might be over time and the next steps that would be required to get that in place there?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, as you know, the most important thing we have up in ISO-New England is the construction of a new combined-cycle gas turbine unit, which has a seven year lock on prices. So, we're good to go for the foreseeable future. So the changes that you're referring to are not of a big consequence to us.
Christopher James Turnure - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. We'll have to wait and see. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please proceed with your question.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Paul.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
A few quick ones. First of all, on the DOE examination, et cetera, just in general, are you hearing anything about perhaps something more dramatic coming out of Washington to deal with nuclear or coal plant retirement, base load retirements outside of the sort of normal stakeholder process sort of approach? Anything that would lead you to think that there'd be something outside of the stakeholder approach that we've been seeing for so many years now? Have you heard anything perhaps more dramatically happening more quickly to address some of the more imminent closures that might be happening?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
No. Paul, we haven't. I mean, the reality is last congressional stab at tax reform has some phasing out of both the production and investment tax credits. I suppose Congress could revisit that and try to further accelerate those phase-outs. The real issue is what happens in organized markets to price the attributes of fuel diversity and/or environmental attributes. And I think that's less about doing away with something and creating something and that, as the earlier questions pointed out, really lends itself more to a stakeholder process or a discussion that would play itself out over the coming months, if not, years, which is why we would say that state action is likely going to front run any federal consensus on these issues. But to be blunt, Paul, we're reading the same stuff you are and just getting feedback through EEI on what this all means.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, great. And then – and I apologize. I was interrupted just briefly during the call. There was this infrastructure strong proposal at the New Jersey BPU and another one of payments of it, a disc sort of setup. And I was wondering if you guys – if you've already talked about it, I apologize. But if you haven't, I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more about what you see happening potentially there and how could it impact you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Sure, yes. No, we haven't discussed it. I describe it as a step in the right direction on an issue that we and the board staff and others have been talking about now for a well over a year. You may remember, we have filed 14 trackers/clause programs over the past 10 years and had all 14 approved, not exactly as we had filed them, but with modifications. And it's become abundantly clear to us and to the board staff that many of these programs that we've initiated have many, many years ahead of them. I mean, we have an aging infrastructure that needs replacement. And to constantly go back in because of an 18-month program's expiration is just suboptimal in terms of how much work you can do efficiently. So, things like training programs for long-term employees, permanent hires versus contractors are things that we don't do now because we don't know whether our capital program is going to end in 18 or 36 months. So, what the board has come out with, all right, we'll give things a kind of a standard recovery mechanism in a five-year life, but in exchange you have to come in for rate case every five years. And given the actions to load growth, that seems like a very, very reasonable thing to do. Now, the devil's in the details, and based upon the straw man that was put out, there's a couple of significant improvements that we think we need to be made. I'm sure that maybe some other folks who have a different point of view. But we think it's a good step in terms of realizing that long-term ongoing infrastructure replacement should not be done in 18-month increments. And giving us five years of clarity will help us hire the people, train the people, invest in new equipment that can help us replace miles of pipe more efficiently and reinforce circuits more efficiently and do things that customers are expecting from us. So, to be continued but certainly a constructive first step.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
And then, Paul, this all will be a public process. So, as it progresses over time, you will be able to see the discussions that are going on and how it is going.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Any sense on the timing? I mean some of these things can – I don't know, I mean the consolidated tax seems to take forever. Do you have any idea when this might be resolved?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Not resolved. Next week is the beginning of the process. I believe there's – you may see some more discussion around it next week that would give more of an indication. But I think as far as when it would end is we don't know right now.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
I'm going to hope that it's done this year, but we don't have a control over that schedule.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your question.
Steve Fleishman - Wolfe Research LLC:
I'm sorry. It's been answered. Thank you.
Operator:
And at this time, there are no further questions. Please continue with any closing or prepared remarks.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Sure. So, thank you all again for joining us. As is often the case, we're greatly appreciate it. As is always the case indicates, we're greatly appreciate of you spending your time with us. So, hopefully, the main messages you heard is that the utility investment program is on track. We're doing things that are valuable to customers and hopefully provide a fair risk-adjusted return to our investors. We certainly view them as being such. Dan briefly mentioned, but it's worth repeating that the Power construction program is on schedule and on budget, so all looks okay there. We continue to realize the benefits of careful cost control in the utility, in PSEG Power and that commitment is a daily one and you can rest assure that will continue out to the future. And lastly, we are engaged in some policy discussions that we believe can be helpful to our customers and our shareholders whether it's energy efficiency, recognizing the value of nuclear or putting in place predictable long-term infrastructure programs, all of which will help us run our system more efficiently and in a way that's safe, reliable and affordable for all involved. I'm sure Kathleen and Dan and I will see you at various venues in weeks and months ahead, and we look forward to chatting with you at that time. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc. Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.
Analysts:
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research) Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co. Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc. Ashar Hasan Khan - Visium Asset Management LP Andrew Levi - Avon Capital
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome, everyone, to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, February 24, 2017, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2:00 PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM Eastern on March 3, 2017. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated:
Thank you, Brent. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our earnings call today. As you are aware, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2016 earnings results earlier this morning. The release and attachments are posted on our website www.pseg.com under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2016, is expected to be filed early next week. I'm not going to read the full disclaimer statement, or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but I do ask that you all read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. The disclaimer statement regarding forward-looking statements details a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made therein. And although, we may elect to update those forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change unless required by applicable securities laws. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA and net income reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measures of operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA provide a consistent and comparable measures of performance to help shareholders understand our operating and financial trends. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group, and joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions and we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today. This morning, we reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of 2016 and as you saw we reported that the non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter were $0.54 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.50 per share earned in the fourth quarter of 2015. Our GAAP results for the full year of $1.75 per share reflect the impact of our decision last year, to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating units in June of this year. The non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year of $2.90 per share were closely aligned with 2015's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.91 per share. And they were solidly within our revised guidance of $2.80 per share to $2.95 per share, as well as within our original guidance. Our results reflect the benefits of growth through organic investment and control of O&M expense, this helped to offset the impact on earnings from low energy prices and record mild temperatures experienced during the first quarter of the year. Actions we have taken to transition our business mix in response to changing market conditions have supported PSEG's earnings and will continue to have a positive impact. For 2017, we're focusing on our non-GAAP – forecasting, our non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 per share to $3 per share. Now, let me just describe a few highlights in 2016. First off, PSE&G was named by the ReliabilityOne organization, as the most reliable utility in the mid-Atlantic region for the 15th consecutive year. The utility invested $2.8 billion during 2016 to upgrade and expand its transmission and distribution system. As part of this work to enhance the system's resiliency and its reliability, PSE&G placed into service the 345 kV northeast grid transmission line. The utility upgraded 177 miles of gas pipe in more than 80 towns under its three year, $905 million gas system modernization program. As part of this work, PSE&G collaborated with Environmental Defense Fund to help detect methane emissions. This collaborative effort helped determine which gas pipes to replace first and that led to a greater reduction in emissions at less cost. In addition, upgrades to PSE&G's electric distribution system continue under the $1.2 billion energy strong infrastructure program. The utility also received approval during the year to expand its Solar 4 All program. The decision by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities allows PSE&G to build an additional 33 megawatts, that's DC, of solar farms on landfills and brownfield sites in the utility serviced territory. Solar 4 All with this latest approval grows to represent a 150 megawatt program, that's also DC. PSE&G's investment program, its supportive revenue recovery mechanisms, and tight control of O&M provided for growth of 12.9% in its net income from 2015 to 2016, increasing its contribution to 60% of consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings. This continues PSE&G's track record of 16% compound annual growth in earnings since 2009. And we also made strides in 2016 at PSEG Power. Despite the continuation of difficult power markets, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year within original guidance, and in excess of our revised guidance. Management's ability to control expenses in response to market and operating conditions helped to offset the impact on earnings of lower volume and pricing, and speaks to the capability of our management team. Power invested $1.3 billion in capital in 2016, construction of 1800 megawatts of new, efficient combined cycle gas-fired turbine capacity within the PJM and New England markets at a total project cost of $2 billion remains on time and on budget. Also during the year, Power invested approximately $300 million, a nearly double the size of its portfolio of solar projects to 400 megawatts DC. During the year, Power announced it would be retiring the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating stations on June 1 2017, given the outlook for energy prices and the cost of operating these older stations. Retirement of these facilities will improve the outlook for Power's cash flow and income going forward. The addition of the new gas-fired capacity and the retirement of Hudson and Mercer will transform Power's generation mix. Coal-fired generation is expected to represent 7% of our fuel mix in 2017. As energy produced from natural gas represents 30% and nuclear fuel generation provides 63% of our energy output. An improvement in the fleets' economic efficiency with a decline in the average heat rate will also benefit the dispatch of Power's assets. We continue to focus on safe efficient operation of our base load nuclear fleets. Power's management team has implemented cost reduction measures in coordination with industry groups to help assure these assets operate in a safe and reliable manner. Controlling cost is vital in the current energy price environment, but even with stringent measures, these units faced continued challenges. A key element of PSEG strategy has been to maintain a strong financial position that supports our investment goals. Our balance sheet continues to provide us with competitive advantage. We ended 2016 with strong credit metrics, which allow us to pursue investment opportunities for growth. For 2017, we intend to invest $4.7 billion to enhance the efficiency and reliability of our businesses at PSE&G and at Power. This represents a record amount for PSEG to invest in any one year. We continue to have the ability to use our financial strength to improve returns. This includes an increase in our capital program, primarily in our regulated utility. Our investment program at PSE&G for the three years ending 2019, will provide for 9% annual growth in rate base. We plan on providing you with an update of our five-year outlook for capital spending, and our Annual Financial Conference on March 6, when we will use our time together to describe what is known and what else maybe possible. I truly believe the investment program is exciting for shareholders and customers as it is focused on meeting their needs with the platform that provides reliable, efficient clean energy at an attractive return. The strategy we implemented over the recent past has transitioned our business mix, as it provided annual growth in earnings. Over the past four years, we have achieved annual growth in earnings at PSEG of 4.4% albeit inclusive of a flat 2016. We want to outperform our recent past and to do so we must remain focused on our principles of operational excellence, financial strength and disciplined investment. Of course meeting our objectives would not be possible without the significant contribution made by PSEG's dedicated workforce. The continued successful deployment of free cash flow into regulated investment programs that meet customer needs, is expected to support 8.5% growth in our utility company's net income, at the midpoint of our 2017 guidance. This then would represent 66% of enterprise's forecasted 2017 non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $3 per share. The board of directors' recent decision to increase the common dividend by nearly 5%, or $0.08 per share on an annual basis to the indicative annual level of a $1.72 per share, is an expression of confidence in our outlook, and an acknowledgment of our strong financial condition. We do see the potential for consistent and sustainable growth in the dividend as an important means of returning cash to our shareholders. I will now turn the call over to Dan for a more details on our operating results and will be available for your questions after his remarks.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported non-GAAP operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.54 per share versus $0.50 per share for the fourth quarter of 2015. Our earnings in the quarter brought non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $2.90 per share, in line with 2015's non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.91 per share, and at the upper end of our revised non-GAAP operating earnings guidance for 2016 of $2.80 per share to $2.95 per share. On slide 4, we've provided you with a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter. I'll be providing you with information on slide 10, regarding the contribution to non-GAAP operating earnings by business for the quarter. Slides 11 and 13 contain waterfall charts, that take you through the quarter-over- quarter and year-over-year changes in non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And I'll review each company in more details starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the fourth quarter of 2016 of $0.38 per share and that's compared with $0.31 per share for the fourth quarter of 2015, as shown on slide 15. PSE&G's full year 2016 net income was $889 million, or $1.75 per share compared with net income of $787 million, or a $1.55 per share in 2015 for year-over-year growth of 12.9% PSE&G 's net income in the fourth quarter continued to benefit from return on its expanded investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. Net income for the quarter improved by $0.06 per share based on growth in PSE&G's investment in transmission and the absence of an adjustment for bonus depreciation in the year-ago quarter. More normal weather conditions relative to unseasonably mild weather in the quarter a year ago, improved net income by a $0.01 per share. And a decline an O&M of $0.03 per share and other expenses was offset by an increase in depreciation and taxes. At the start of 2017, PSE&G implemented a $121 million increase in revenue under the company's transmission formula rate. Transmission revenues are adjusted each year, to reflect an update of the company's investment program. PSE&G's investment in transmission has grown to represent 44%, or $6.7 billion of the company's consolidated rate base of $15.2 billion at the end of 2016. Economic conditions in the service territory are stable. During the quarter, weather-normalized electric sales were flat compared to the year ago period as an increase in demand from the commercial sector offset a decline in sales to residential and industrial customers. For the year, continued decline in the industrial sector and increases in efficiency offset the positive impact on sales from growth in residential customers. The experience in 2016 is representative of our long-term forecast for electric sales of under 0.5% per year. Weather-normalized firm gas sales declined slightly during the fourth quarter, compared to the year ago quarter, and declined 1.9% for the full year. We believe the decline in weather-normalized gas sales for the year is due to the extreme weather conditions experienced over the past two years, starting some in precision in the weather adjustments and over the long-term we forecast annual growth of a 0.5% to 1% in firm gas sales. PSE&G invested $2.8 billion on its transmission and distribution system in 2016 and has forecasted to invest an additional $3.4 billion in 2017. We're forecasting growth in PSE&G's net income for 2017 to a range of $945 million to $985 million. And at the midpoint of that range, the forecast represents 8.5% growth in net income for the year. Now, let's turn to Power. As shown on slide 20, PSEG Power reported non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.13 per share, compared with non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.19 per share a year ago. The results for the quarter brought Power's full-year non-GAAP operating earnings to $514 million, or $1.01 per share, compared to 2015's non-GAAP operating earnings of $653 million, or $1.29 per share. Power's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter and the year amounted to $155 million and $1.201 billion respectively. This compares with adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2015 of $218 million and adjusted EBITDA for the full-year of 2015 of $1.435 billion. And as of this reporting, the calculation of Power's adjusted EBITDA no longer excludes costs associated with major maintenance activities at Power's fossil generating stations. The earnings release as well as the earnings slides on pages 11 and 13, provide you with the detailed analysis of Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and cost. We've also provided you more detail on generation for the quarter and for the year on slides 22 and 23. PSEG Power's net income for the fourth quarter reflects the impact of incremental depreciation and some other expenses of $555 million and that's associated with the decision to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal-fired generating units effective June 1 of 2017. The company's fourth quarter results also reflect the impact of a decline in energy prices on output and margins. The decline in the average price received on energy hedges reduced Power's quarter-over-quarter net income by $0.05 per share and improvements in our system gas sales partially offset the impact of reduced output, resulting in a net reduction of a $0.01 per share in quarterly net income comparisons. During the quarter, an increase in O&M expense of $0.03 per share, associated with the planned refueling outage of Power's 100% owned Hope Creek nuclear station, was offset by a decline in taxes and other items and for the full-year, lower O&M improved Power's net income by $0.13 per share. Let's turn to Power's operations and the output from Power's generating facilities was 7.6% lower in the fourth quarter, compared to a year ago levels. Quarterly comparisons were affected by the planned refueling outage at Hope Creek by major maintenance on the Bergen 1 gas-fired combined cycle gas turbine unit during the quarter and by market conditions. For the year, output was 6.7% lower than the amount of energy produced in the prior year. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor for the year of 86.9%, producing 29.6 terawatt hours of energy representing 57% of Power's total energy output for 2016. If you recall, the refueling outage at Salem 1 in the spring was extended to replace baffle bolts in the reactor and Salem 2 was removed from service during a portion of the third quarter to repair a main power transformer. The Salem units each operated at capacity factors in excess of 98% in the fourth quarter. Power's gas-fired combined cycle fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 57% for the year, producing 16.4 terawatt hours of energy, representing 32% of Power's 2016 energy output. The coal-fired fleet primarily Keystone and Conemaugh generated 4.8 terawatt hours of energy during the year, producing 9% of Power's 2016 energy output, with the remaining output produced from our peaking assets. Operation of our gas-fired combined cycle fleet, for the year has been affected by the timing of outages and market conditions. Although a compression in markets spark spreads could continue to influence output from the combined cycle fleet in the upcoming year, we don't forecast the deterioration in the spark spread earned by the fleet given the availability and pricing of shale gas. We've seen an improvement in forward zonal market prices over the quarter, particularly for 2018 and 2019 pricing. The improvement stems from an increase in pipeline capacity moving gas from the Marcellus basin, as well as transmission repair work, which has supported movement of electricity. Over the long-term, however the market prices do remain backward dated. Overall, Power's gross margin declined slightly to $37 a megawatt hour in fourth quarter, versus $38.83 per megawatt hour in the year ago quarter. For the year, Power's gross margin was $40.40 per megawatt hour versus $42.25 per megawatt hour last year. And slide 25, provides detail on Power's gross margins for both the quarter and for the year. Power's forecasting output for 2017 of 49 terawatt hours to 51 terawatt hours, a slight reduction from the 51.5 terawatt hours of energy produced in 2016. Following completion of the BGS auction in New Jersey earlier this month, Power enters the year with a 100% of its 2017 baseload generation hedged and approximately 80% to 85% of anticipated annual production hedged, at an average price of $46 a megawatt hour. The percent of output hedged is higher than what we've typically hedged at this time a year, and the difference is the result of a slightly lower generation forecast for the year. For 2018, we forecast annual production of 55 terawatt hours, approximately 50% to 55% of 2018's forecast generation is hedged at an average price of $43 a megawatt hour, and for 2019, Power has hedged 15% to 20% of forecasted production of 60 terawatt hours at an average price of $43 per megawatt hour. And Power assumes BGS volumes will continue to represent approximately 11 terawatt hours in 2017, which is consistent with 2016's deliveries of 11.1 terawatt hours under the BGS contract. Forecast increase in output in 2018 and 2019 reflect a commercial startup in mid-2018 of 1,300 megawatts of new gas-fired combined cycle facilities at Keys, in Maryland and at Sea Warren in New Jersey, and the mid 2019 commercial startup of the 485 megawatt gas-fired unit at Bridgeport Harbor in Connecticut. Moving to retail, Power has received approval to operate as a third-party supplier of retail electric energy in both New Jersey and in Pennsylvania. The forecast for 2017 doesn't assume meaningful contribution from retail sales, the Power's team will begin its marketing efforts. Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for 2017 are forecast at $435 million to $510 million. The forecast represents non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2017 of $1.080 billion to $1.210 billion. Moving to Enterprise and Other. Enterprise and Other reported net income for the fourth quarter of $11 million, or $0.02 per share, which compares to net income of $4 million for the fourth quarter of 2015. For the full year, Enterprise and Other reported a net loss of $20 million, or $0.04 per share compared to net income in 2015 of $36 million, or $0.07 per share. Net income in the fourth quarter and the full year 2017 included pre-tax charges of $10 million and a $147 million respectively, related to impairment of leveraged lease residual values and an estimated loss as a result of liquidity issues currently facing NRG REMA. Non-GAAP operating earnings for Enterprise and Other in the fourth quarter were $17 million, or $0.03 per share compared to $4 million in the year ago quarter. The results for the fourth quarter brought full year 2016 non-GAAP operating earnings from Enterprise and Other to $72 million, or $0.14 per share compared to $36 million, or $0.07 per share in 2015. Excluding the issues related to the leases, the improvement in non-GAAP operating earnings reflects the absence of certain corporate expenditures, as well as contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island and certain tax items. And for 2017, non-GAAP operating earnings for Enterprise and Other are forecasted at $35 million. I'd now like to spend a moment on the subject of tax reform, and as you all know it's very early in the process, but that said, we've evaluated the impact on PSEG of key changes to the tax code that are being discussed that you've, no doubt, familiarized yourself with over the past quarter. Slide 31 provides an overview of these key issues, and overall we believe PSEG is well-positioned and would benefit from a decline in the federal tax rate due to Power's contribution to earnings and our strong balance sheet. We anticipate any reduction in federal taxes at PSE&G would be passed through to our utility customers, and we also anticipate the customer rates would decrease as excess deferred income taxes are returned to customers. The payback period as you know is unknown at this point. But our strong balance sheet puts us in a position to comfortably manage that return of cash to customers. And you should also expect that our November 2017 distribution base rate filing at PSE&G would reflect any changes in federal taxes that would be known at that time. The first changes in federal taxes are expected to improve PSEG's and Power's after-tax earnings and cash flow. And we estimate that given our low debt levels, the impact of deductibility of interest expense would be moderate to us versus our peers, as with potential loss of deductibility of our relatively low property taxes paid by Power. We do bear the risk of a boarder adjustment tax on our nuclear fuel, but on balance we believe, we are well-positioned for the elements of tax reform that are currently being discussed. Next I'd like to provide a brief update on our pension, pension and OPEB expense in 2017 is expected to be $22 million lower than our 2016 level of expense. Contributing to that reduction was a merger of our three qualified defined benefit pension plans and the assets of those plans into a single plan. As a result, total pre-tax net periodic benefit costs are expected to decrease by $48 million in 2017 from what they would have been, but for the merger of the plans. And this is due to a change in the amortization period for gains and losses for the merged plan, resulting in a lower amortization expense than that of the individual plans. Returns on our pension fund in 2016 exceeded our targets and at year end, the pension plan was well-funded with no anticipated funding required over our five-year planning horizon. With respect to financing as Ralph mentioned, our financial condition remained strong. We closed 2016 with $423 million of cash on hand and debt representing 47% of our consolidated capital position. Debt at Power represents approximately 29% of its capital base and at year-end Power's debt position was just over 2.1 time to the midpoint of our forecast for Power's non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for 2017. During the fourth quarter, PSEG issued $700 million of three-year and five-year senior notes at favorable interest rates, and we plan to provide you with an updated five year view of capital spending at our Annual Financial Conference on March 6. We're guiding to non-GAAP operating earnings for 2017 of $2.80 to $3 per share, in line with our 2016 operating results, as forecast growth at PSE&G offsets lower energy prices on Power's income. The common dividend was recently increased 4.9% to the indicative annual level of a $1.72 per share, which represents the 13th increase in the last 14 years, and builds on a 3.9% average annual growth in the dividend over last 10 years. And with that, we're ready to take your questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. Your first question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Hey, good morning, thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I just was looking at the guidance that you last gave on a segment basis on the Q3 call versus the actual results. And it looks like PSE&G net income came in slightly below the low end of the higher articulated guidance range, but PSE&G Power had a phenomenal year, at least relative to what you thought at the end of the third quarter. Can you compare your last articulated segment guidance against the year-end results and explain where things were consistent with or inconsistent with where you thought you were going to end up the year?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, I'll give it to Dan, Greg, good morning, but I think basically we had a pretty cold December and great O&M control and a tax issue with the utility, but Dan do you want to...
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. That's exactly it, Greg. There was a tax issue that's not an ongoing issue, it's a one-time tax item at the utility that brought them just below and Power just did a great job of controlling costs as we went through the balance of the year.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, great. So when we think about the guidance for 2017 then, whatever that – and I can go over it with Kathleen offline, whatever tax issue you had is normalized in terms of expectations?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. That's exactly right, Greg.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay, fantastic. And when you talk about the – sorry to focus on the tax stuff because who knows three months from now, we may wind up not having any tax bill at all, but one of your other competitors that's a large nuclear generator did point out that they thought that there was a significant exposure on border tax on uranium costs since we now unfortunately import the majority of our uranium. Is that theoretically true? But in the longer term if that were the case, are there domestic sources of uranium that would be quickly brought online to mitigate that?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean, Greg as we think about it, we spend about $200 million a year on nuclear fuel and a little more than half of that is sourced outside of the U.S. So we show that issue, obviously, not to a major extend from the standpoint of the overall impact on Enterprise. But if you think about a border tax trying to encourage domestic production, I don't know that it would – there is any way it would get you all the way there from the ability to source what the industry needs domestically. That said that doesn't mean that you would necessarily have it as part of tax reform. So, we're aware of the issue, watching the issue, and that would be an area, where it would have an impact on us.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
And Greg, just the risk of getting into too much detail, remember when we say nuclear fuel, that's a complicated noun to use right, because there is a whole bunch of processing that goes along with it. So, when the answer is half of it is outside, it doesn't mean that from uranium cake to fuel rod, we do half of that in the country, and half of that outside of the country, all parts of it are touched outside of the country. So, as you point out, this is an attempt to bring this product into the nation, that we don't know, how that's going to be doable.
Greg Gordon - Evercore ISI:
Okay. Thank you, guys. Take care.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Julien.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey, just to finalize that question, just to make sure I heard you right on the nuclear fuel piece. You should assume the vast majority of the fuel CapEx is subject to the border adjustability tax?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Since the laws aren't written it's going to be tough to say, but there is different components going from uranium to enrichment to fabrication along the way, and those steps are more external than internal to the U.S. So, however they would make the determination to apply any kind of a border tax that doesn't – that isn't written as yet, we would apply that against the components of how that comes together, so we're grasping a little bit at trying to define, a number around something that doesn't exist, but if we think about it little more than half of the aggregate cost seems like it might qualify to be non-domestically resourced.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Right, got it. And then vis-a-vis your cash taxes, can you remind us exactly where do you stand today and what your effective and cash tax rates would be as you look at the forecasted future?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So, future would not include any tax reform, I presume. But as we think about overall tax profile, we are a taxpayer and get a little close to not being one into this year, depending upon where the results go and then move back into a tax paying position?
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it, all right. Then turning to the CapEx bucket, your GSMP program, do you have plans to increase that going into the rate case? And can you remind us of the potential upside there as you see it in terms of the next filing?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Sure. Julien, (34:20) that's a $300 million a year run rate adjusted for inflation going forward, we think that's a 30-year program, so that means we have 27 more years after this first tranche of GSMP and you remember we were operating at a $300 million a year run rate and we have gained confidence that we can push that number up higher. I'd rather leave the details of that discussion for March 6, but it will be – we certainly have the capability to do more than $300 million a year, which would of course shorten the 27 years proportionally.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Travis.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
I was wondering if you could update us, Ralph, on your thoughts about the retail business? The speed at which you would like to ramp that up, the extent to which you might ramp that up relative to the generation output?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So our philosophy hasn't changed, remember this is primarily a defensive move on our part. We did make clear that we were looking at possibly trying to find a couple of tuck-in niche acquisitions, but we have not, and so we've opted to pursue this organically building the capability in house. We still are targeting between 5 terawatt hours and 10 terawatt hours at its maturity. We have received licenses to market in Eastern Pennsylvania and in New Jersey. We have a head of the operation on board that we've hired and a couple of support folks and are talking to people about some of the back-office fundamentals that we don't want to build on our own. Don't forget we still have BGS, which is the 11 terawatt hours of our 50 terawatt hours round numbers that is essentially retail product. And what we're looking to do here is to basically claw back some of the BGS that over years had gone away by some combination of migration or changing of thresholds for the BGS customer. And we think that it will help us capture some loss margin and improve our management of basis differentials. So I think from the point of view of organic growth, I'm pleased with the approach it makes it harder, but it does make it more profitable if done this way.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Yeah. Got it, thanks. And then within that retail business, would you think about doing anything unique like energy services or C&I energy management, anything like that or are we just talking plain retail?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
This is plain retail capturing better margin for our hardware that exist.
Travis Miller - Morningstar, Inc. (Research):
Got it. Okay. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hi, guys. Congrats on a good 2016. I want to come back to the utility and the commentary about CapEx. I think if I read the release correctly, you said $10.2 billion of total CapEx for the entire company over the next three years and 77% of that is the utility. So that's kind of roughly $7.8 billion of utility CapEx. But then, and I may have misheard this, I thought you said that 2017's CapEx at the utility is going to be $3.4 billion. So that would leave $4.5 billion for 2018 and 2019, which implies $2.2 billion a year roughly. That's a pretty big step down in PSE&G's CapEx. a) I want to make sure I heard that correctly. b) could you walk us through whether that's the number you're likely to lay out at the Analyst Day, or at the Analyst day are you going to update that number? What are the things that are not included that could wind up in there when we think about the next couple of years?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Okay, Michael. Well, first of all good morning, thanks for the nice words. Yes, you heard the numbers correctly. This is our age-old problem, that you now have grown accustom to, where the out years have in the past grown beyond, what we predict them to be in the current timeframe. So, what we'll do at the Analyst Day is try to explain to you, what's been approved, what's about to be filed, what we've confidence in, in terms of being a mere extension of existing programs, and we're actually going to expand a little bit at the Analyst Day to kind of give you a little bit more insights into what I would just call our opportunities set, our drawing board things which we were always working on, but we normally don't bake into our bar charts showing five-year growth. But at the risk of sort of doing the preview with details on the news at 11 you are once again going to see a five-year set of numbers that are higher than what we thought they were going to be last year at this time and that just seems to be the natural trend. And I wish I could always get it right in terms of the prediction, but the out years are always less certain. So – yes, you heard it correctly.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Right. It just seems in this – and I want to make sure I understand. The CapEx you're likely to layout at the Analyst Day will differ from the $10.2 billion total number that you put in today's release, or will those two, for just the next three years, be the same number and you'll give a lot more detail about drivers and what could change it?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So, in terms of three years, what we'll show you is stuff that we didn't include and why didn't include it, and then we'll expand the five-year view for you.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. The only reason I ask is that when I go back over the last decade, it's really years three through five, where you would show a cliff in the slide deck at the Analyst Day, and then as we got closer to year three and year four those numbers would come up. And the only thing that differs from the detail this time is now it's FY 2002 (40:53), meaning it's the 2018 number where you kind of assume a $2.2 billion if you just assumed 2018 and 2019 were the combined equal amount of what's left over. And so I'm just wondering, are we reaching a point where CapEx at PSE&G is starting to moderate?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
So I think, I think that your observations are accurate that the turnover generally occurred in years – it slightly occurred in year three and turnover in year four and year five. The other observation I would offer those that this year is a record breaking year for PSE&G CapEx. So, I think it's a combination of kind of GSMP and ESM and Energy Strong in tandem and Solar 4 All in tandem with still some major transmission work going on in the Bergen-Linden Corridor that's feeding a record breaking year. So, that year four and year five is coming up a little bit earlier this time, but that won't change the 9% growth in rate base, which is off of a higher base, and a larger capital program than we've had in the prior years and the prospects for even more to come.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. And one thing, in thinking about rate base calcs, what is the bonus D&A impact on rate base over the next couple of years?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
It's in the numbers that we're providing, I don't have a separate breakout of what the implications of that were, we can get you a little bit color on those numbers, but we broken out with the total cash flow aspect is and then that will ripple through based upon timing.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it, thanks. I can follow up with Kathleen. Much appreciated, Ralph, Dan. Much obliged.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Thank you, Michael.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Really quickly. The leases, they were, as I understand, last quarter they were all being paid. Is that still the case?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yes, everything is still current on them, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And what is the earnings impact associated with these leases for 2017? Is it anything significant?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Not a significant contribution to the ongoing earnings, no.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. That's my only question. Everything else has been asked. Thanks.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, Paul.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks, so much.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good morning.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
So, my first question was on the O&M operation. You said the Q4 PSEG Power costs were low and were run efficiently. I wanted to understand, is that a one-time thing? What drove that, and can that be replicated going forward or is that already reflected in your guidance?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So, our O&M forecast for 2017 is clearly included within the guidance for 2017 and we continue to manage as efficiently as we can within the facilities that we have it. I guess the items that I would think about it, as you move through time and Ralph referenced, maybe some of the operational aspects as supposed to cost specific. But you'll see Hudson and Mercer coming off from the standpoint of those units retiring, and you'll see as time moves on with some new units coming on into retail operation, coming together, you will see some cost come back on from more productive purposes. But we have operated the Power business at an extremely efficient O&M trajectory and if you look over the last five years or so, our O&M is basically dead flat.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And that's helpful. Any perspective on PJM capacity prices? How do you see all the supply that could impact the upcoming auction, any view on that at all?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, we never forecast what that is going to be, largely because we don't know what that's going to be. I think, what we are paying careful attention to and I suspect everyone on the call is as well as this first of a kind footnote by PJM that they may have to revisit some of the reliability parameters in the PS Zone and PS North in particular, that's something we all expect to see updated prior to May, I know that we have launched some questions with PJM about some of the reliability assumptions made, these seem to emanate from the change in the wheeling circumstances associated with the New York ISO. So, no we don't forecast, we don't predict to the outside world, we obviously do a lot of analysis inside about what we think may happen, but right now I believe the parameters unfortunately are in a bit of flux, and they need to be fixed sooner rather than later.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. And just finally quickly on the tax reform side, you said with the reduction of corporate tax rate, obviously the excess deferred tax liability, whatever you revalue, you'll have to refund back to customers. Can you give us a sense of what that size is and what do you expect in terms of timeframe if you had to refund that?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, the second question is the harder one to answer, because it is not determined yet, where that's necessarily going to come from, so that could be legislated as part of what ultimately may come out or be left to the regulatory agencies to make that determination. So, we don't know if you look back to 1986, there was something called the average rate adjustment method, which was painfully complex, and pushed the excess back on a unit-by-unit or a class-by-class as the timing difference has changed. So it was very structured, and very complex and pushed them back over a long period of time. So as it stands right now, we don't know what that message is going to be, because nothing is in place as yet, but that's just an eyeball to history. And if you take a look, you can see just by going through the overall tax footnotes and looking at the aggregate deferred taxes that we have and grossing up at 35% and pulling down at whatever rate you think the rate is going to go to. So you'll have to determine whether you had a 15% or 20% rate or something else based upon what gets legislated. But if you're in that range, you're probably approaching about $2 billion of excess deferreds, just by doing that math off the footnotes of the 10-K.
Praful Mehta - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.:
Got you. Thanks so much, guys.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Good morning. I just have hopefully one quick question. The midpoint of the utility guidance $945 million to $985 million, what's the assumption on earned ROE?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that's not changing this year for any reasons that we can think of Anthony. We're looking at each other right now say, does somebody knows something that we don't. The rate case filing for base distribution will go in November my guess is those rates will be effective sometime either late in 2018 or January 1 of 2019. Our FERC formula rate has already gone through for January 1. Our clauses are all baked in already at varying degrees from 9.75% to 10.0% So, there is no ROE – there is no allowed ROE impact this year that I can think off...
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. I mean ultimately it becomes the sum product of all of those different rates and programs.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
I guess, have you provided what that sum product is that you're assuming for 2017 or no?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
No.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
No.
Anthony C. Crowdell - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Angie Storozynski with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Thank you. Just a quick question on the Enterprise and Other. Can you help me with modeling of the future earnings power of this segment?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Far and away the biggest component there is PSEG Long Island and that's about a $0.07 to $0.08 benefit in the aggregate. Beyond that there is a little bit of corporate expenses and a little bit of interest, but mainly if you think about that, as just being PSEG Long Island it will be pretty close.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
So why was there a step-down between – why is there a step-down between 2016 and 2019 – 2017? I'm sorry.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So there is – we had a tax benefit that came through this year, which is a onetime item, which would not be replicated on a go forward basis.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. And then for Long Island, should I just keep it flat? Is there any growth embedded in the contract?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah, that there is growth basically on a kind of a CPI oriented growth. So there is no step change that you should expect from that business.
Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.:
Okay. Thank you.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
You're welcome.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium. Please go ahead.
Ashar Hasan Khan - Visium Asset Management LP:
My questions have been answered. Thank you so much.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Ashar.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Good job.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andy Levi with Avon Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
Hey, guys. How are you doing?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Hi, Andy.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
Hey, just two quick questions. Just on 2019 on your hedges, the $43 on the baseload, seems like a very attractive price relative to kind of what shows up on various different – like Bloomberg for example. Just wondering the timeframe when you hedged that and how you were able to get a $43 price, which is very attractive.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Nothing new there Andy, what we have always done and continue to do is as we try to capture items like a full requirements contract like BGS, we, we strip-out the capacity component of it and it leaves you with some of the actual non-energy elements that remain in there. So, as you look that far out that's a bigger proportion of what the hedged amount is. So that's what it gets you to.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
And it's consistent with what we've done, whenever we give you our hedge profile.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
Okay, so that, just make sure I understand it because I'm not that smart at times. So that percent that you show there, that's mainly from BGS? Is that what you're saying?
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
About half of it is BGS.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
Half of it is BGS, got it. Okay. And the second question is, and I don't know if you had disclosed this already, but what is the PSE&G, the utility's, CapEx for 2017?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
That was the $3.4 billion.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
$3.4 billion, okay. I did hear that correctly, okay. And then I guess I can discuss the rest with Kathleen afterwards. Okay. Thank you very much.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
But she is not going to tell you how we hedged so smartly, she is not going to give away those trade secrets to you.
Andrew Levi - Avon Capital:
Okay. Thanks.
Daniel J. Cregg - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
See you, Andy.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Real quick follow-up on the balance sheet. You've talked previously about how much balance sheet capacity, or excess balance sheet capacity you maintain. Can you give an update on that? And if CapEx does start to moderate at the utility some, and we know that once the gas plants come online at Power we'll start seeing CapEx moderate, and probably early, mid next year there as well. How do you think about utilizing that balance sheet?
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Yeah. So thanks for the follow-up question Michael. And your arithmetic was right before, I just, I wanted to be cautious about the use of moderation for the utility capital program as a general characterization because it's anything but, and we'll talk in greater detail about that. And we'll also give you some specifics on residual investment capacity and there is a healthy amount of residual investment capacity that we'll expand about. That is the primary reason, why we planned to do something a little bit new on following Monday and talk about the opportunity set. Albeit with a heavy dose of qualifying that opportunity set as, yeah, so this is the stuff that's on the drawing board that oftentimes never gets to a filing and then even after filing oftentimes gets trimmed, right. So, but we just want to show you the reason why we like having that investment capacity because we're always thinking of things that are important to customers that we can do for them.
Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Ralph. Much appreciated.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo or Mr. Cregg there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo - Public Service Enterprise Group, Inc.:
Great. So, thanks, Brent. So thanks, everyone, for being on the call. And we hope the results for 2016 and the outlook for 2017 help you understand that our strategy is successful in meeting the challenges of the market today. We will be in New York on March 6th at the stock exchange and hope you'll join us for our annual review of our business both the three year and five year look going forward. Presumably your takeaway say at least what we tried to communicate to you is that our balance sheet remains strong. As we just discussed with Michael and with the rest of you, our capacity for growth exists beyond the 9% rate base that we've talked about and the completion of the projects of Power that are going to add 1,800 megawatts of efficient combined-cycle. We will give you a little bit more information on the range of utility opportunities and what our ongoing efforts will be to position Power's portfolio for maximum returns. In the meantime, as much as it pains me to say, please enjoy this wonderful weather. And hopefully, we'll see it bundles up in Manhattan in about seven-day. Take care, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - IR Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President, and CEO Dan Cregg - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering Travis Miller - Morningstar Angie Storozynski - Macquarie Praful Mehta - Citigroup Mitchell Moss - Lord Abbett
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Ginger, and I am your event operator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session from members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Monday, October 31, 2016 ,and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2:00 PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM. Eastern on November 7, 2016. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate Web site at www.pseg.com. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Ginger. Good morning. Thank you for participating in PSEG's call this morning. As you are aware, we released third quarter 2016 earnings statements earlier this morning. The release and attachments as mentioned are posted on our Web site, www.pseg.com, under the Investor section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2016 is expected to be filed later today. As you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update those forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes unless required to do so. Our release also contains non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or our other investor filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecast, and expectations, and for a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group; and joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks there will be time for your questions. Thanks, Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you everyone for joining us today. PSEG reported strong results for the third quarter. Earlier this morning, we reported net income for the quarter of $0.64 per share versus $0.87 per share last year. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2016 were $0.88 per share compared with non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.80 per share. For the nine months, we reported net income of $1.94 per share versus $2.70 per share, but non-GAAP operating earnings for the nine months ended September 30, 2016, are $2.36 per share, which compares with non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.41 per share earned during the nine months ended September 30, 2015. Slides four and five contain the details on the results for the quarter and the nine months. We remain committed to our core operating philosophy of operational excellence, investing in a disciplined manner, and maintaining a strong financial position to support the growth expected by our shareholders. PSE&G continues to earn its return on an expanded capital investment program. PSE&G Power continues to manage through very difficult energy markets, and we continue to take strong actions to optimize both businesses in this environment. PSE&G Power has decided to retire the Hudson and Mercer coal fire generation stations in 2017. This is sooner than we would have forecasted just a few short years ago, but became inevitable in the face of changes in the energy market, which were amply demonstrated this summer. While we experienced very warm weather conditions, the abundance of low-cost gas supply, which is a benefit for our customers kept energy prices low, and is expected to keep power prices lower for longer. Careful analysis indicated it would be uneconomic to invest the capital necessary to assure the units would comply with PJM's new capacity performance reliability standards. Although the units have been dispatched infrequently, we expect the retirement of Hudson and Mercer to result in a further reduction in the fleet's emissions profile. These retirements continue the evolution of PSE&G Power's fleet into a portfolio of reliable, low-cost, flexible assets capable of competing in today's market. To be clear, retirement will also aid Power's future cash flow and return profile. The addition of 1,800 megawatts of new gas-fired capacity Keys, Sewaren, and Bridgeport Harbor over 2018 through '19 will further the transformation of the fleet. From a supply-demand standpoint I want to remind that the capacity at Sewaren and Bridgeport Harbor will replace older steam and coal-fired capacity that we will retire. The new capacity will improve the fleet's efficiency and lower its cost structure. The new units remain on time and on budget. These new units remain profitable even with the recent declines in market pricing, and continue to meet our hurdles for returns, which of course are in excess of our return expectations that we place on new utility investments. By the end of this decade our nuclear and gas-fired generation facilities will provide more than 90% of our electric output. Our nuclear fleet represents our cleanest energy resource for the foreseeable future. And our gas-fired combined cycle fleet represents an efficient flexible resource. We remain committed to operating the fleet in a safe, reliable manner, and assuring their availability over the long term. Power continues to focus on running the business efficiently, and has made targeted reductions in its workforce, and continues to identify measures to improve availability and margins in today's market. New investment opportunities for power do not involved the construction of additional new capacity, but we continue to look for opportunities to diversity the fleet. PSE&G also continues to identify new opportunities for growth. PSE&G is on track to invest $3 billion in 2016 as part of its five-year $12 billion capital program. In addition, PSE&G has recently reached the settlement with key parties that provides for an extension of its existing, innovative, landfill and brownfield solar programs subject to BPU approval. The settlement allows PSE&G to expand its investment in solar by approximately $80 million to construct 33 megawatts of grid-connected solar facilities over three years. We believe PSE&G's involvement in grid-connected solar extends the benefit of solar to all of its customers at a lower cost. We anticipate a decision from the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities by year end. PSE&G is also requesting approval from the BPU to partner with New Jersey Transit in the development of a new $270 million substation that both would utilize and would enhance the reliability and resilience of facilities damaged by Superstorm Sandy. The new substation would enter service by the end of 2020. For me it's hard to believe, but it has been four years since Superstorm Sandy struck. It touched all of our customers, and to-date we have invested more than $900 million under electric and gas programs approved by the BPU to improve our systems' resilience through raising substations, building redundancy, replacing gas pipe, and even trimming trees. The collaboration with New Jersey Transit on construction of a new substation represents a continuation of this type of work. The agreement to increase our investment in solar, our announced $300 million increase in base capital spend, and PSE&G's anticipated collaboration with New Jersey Transit represent a greater than $600 million increase in PSE&G's capital program. PSE&G's ability to earn its authorized return on investment continues to drive our forecast for double-digit growth in PSE&G's 2016 earnings. Based on our forecast for the year, PSE&G is expected to represent more than 60% of 2016 consolidated non-GAAP operating earnings. Its investment program continues to drive annual growth and rate base of 8% through the end of the decade with the potential for up to 10% with additional programs that we have planned. We have met significant challenges through our forecast presented by the lack of winter weather and low energy pricing. Even so, consistent with our comments on the second quarter earnings call in mid-summer, we're making a slight adjustment to the upper end of our full-year guidance. We are now guiding toward 2016 non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $2.95 per share, which represents a small reduction from our prior forecast of non-GAAP operating earnings of $2.80 to $3.00 per share. We are confident that the investments we're making, along with a focus on operational excellence and a strong balance sheet will drive long-term success. With that I'll turn the call over to Dan, who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Dan Cregg:
Great. Thank you, Ralph, and thank you everybody for joining us on the call this morning. As Ralph mentioned, PSEG reported net income for the third quarter of 2016 of $0.64 per share versus net income of $0.87 per share in the last year's third quarter. Non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2016 were $0.88 per share versus non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.80 per share in last year's third quarter, and a reconciliation of non-GAAP operating earnings to net income for the quarter and year-to-date can be found on slides four and five. We've also provided you with a waterfall chart on slide nine that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by major business. And a similar chart on slide 10 provides you with the changes to non-GAAP operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. And I'll now review each company in more detail, starting PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income of $0.50 per share for the third quarter of 2016, compared with $0.44 per share of the third quarter of 2015, for a 14% improvement. Results for the quarter are shown on slide 12. The improvement in PSE&G's net income for the third quarter reflects growth from its expanded investment in electric and gas transmission and distribution facilities. Returns on PSE&G's expanded investment in Transmission added $0.03 per share to net income in the quarter. And incremental revenue associated with PSE&G's Energy Strong infrastructure program added $0.02 per share to net income in the quarter. Third quarter net income comparisons also benefitted by an increase in electric demand associated with weather conditions, which were approximately 30% warmer than normal and 9% warmer than conditions experienced in the third quarter of 2015. The increase in demand associated with the warmer than normal weather added $0.01 per share to third quarter net income. An increase in depreciation and O&M and other expense was offset by a decline in taxes and other items. Retail electric sales increased 3.6% in the quarter reflecting the much warmer summer weather than occurred in 2016 and on a weather normalized basis total sales were slightly positive versus the third quarter of 2015 with higher sales to residential and industrial customers offset by a decline in sales to commercial customers. As Ralph mentioned PSE&G's capital program led by an investment in transmission is on schedule. PSE&G is expected to invest $1.8 billion in transmission during 2016 as part of the five year $7.1 billion investment program to upgrade and expand the transmission network. PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to grow to represent approximately 45% of year-end 2016's rate base. PSE&G recently filed an update of its formula rate for transmission at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and the update which reflects an increase in the level of PSE&G's investment in transmission would provide for $121 million increase in annual transmission revenues effective January 1, 2017, subject to FERC approval. We are maintaining our forecast for PSE&G non-GAAP operating earnings for 2016 of $900 million to $935 million. Now let's turn to Power. PSE&G Power net income of $139 million were $0.27 per share to the third quarter of 2016 compared with net income of $206 million or $0.40 per share for the year ago quarter. Our non-GAAP operating earnings were $0.34 per share for the third quarter of 2016 compared to non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.33 per share, and non-GAAP adjusted EBIDTA for the third quarter of 2016 was $397 million versus non-GAAP adjusted EBIDTA for 2015 of $401 million. Non-GAAP adjusted EBIDTA includes the same -- excludes the same items as our non-GAAP operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expect, depreciation and amortization and major maintenance at Power's fossil generating facilities. In the earnings release on page 18 provides you with detailed analysis of the impact on Power's non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. We have also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and for the nine months of the year on slide 19 and slide 20. Power's net income at the end of the third quarter includes one-time pre-tax charges amounting to $114 million pre-tax, $67 million after tax or $0.13 per share related to the early retirement of the Hudson and Mercer generating stations. These one-time charges which were excluded from Power's non-GAAP operating earnings mainly relate to the write down of excess coal inventory and materials and supplies as well as some other smaller items. Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter, reflect a decline in the average price on energy hedges, which is partially offset by lower cost of serve load, which combined to reduce quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by $0.02 per share a decline in output during the quarter reduced operating earnings by $0.01 per share and a reduction in O&M expense improved results by $0.03 per share, an increase in depreciation expense associated with Power's capital program was more than offset by a decline in interest expense and other items, which combined to improved quarter-over-quarter net income by a $0.01 per share. As I mentioned, Power's third quarter results benefited from a reduction in O&M expense which added $0.03 per share to net income quarter-over-quarter. Year-to-date, a reduction in Power's O&M expense has improved net income comparison by $0.15 per share. Management's proactive response to lower energy pricing has been a major contributor to the decline in O&M and with timing of outages and major maintenance related work has also influenced comparisons. For example in 2015, refueling outage at Hope Creek occurred in the spring, and this year Hope Creek's refueling outage is currently underway in the fourth quarter. O&M expense in 2015 was also elevated due to major maintenance related work at some of the fossil stations. Although we expect O&M expense in 2016 to decline year-over-year, you should anticipate an increase in O&M for the fourth quarter given the cost associated with the refueling of our 100% owned Hope Creek nuclear station. Over the long-term, you can expect constant diligence in controlling the growth of O&M. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Output at Power's generating facilities declined 4% in the quarter. And the nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 80% in the third quarter versus an average capacity factor of 95% in the year ago quarter as output declined 12% to 6.9 terawatt hours from 7.8 terawatt hours. The decline in output reflects the impact of extended outages at the two Salem units. And as we mentioned in our second quarter earnings call, output in the third quarter would be impacted by the expansion of the refueling outage at Salem 1 through July to complete repair work on the units baffle bolts and repair work at Salem 2 to repair an electrical fault. Both units have since returned to service and are operating at full capacity. Output from Power's gas fired combined cycle fleet declined slightly to 5.2 terawatt hours from 5.4 terawatt hours last year. The warmer than normal weather condition spurred an increase in demand for Power's coal fired generating stations and peaking fleet which together experienced an increase in output during the quarter to 2 terawatt hours from 1.6 terawatt hours. Power markets in the third quarter benefited from hotter than normal weather which had a favorable influence on the market and power was less hedged to going into the quarter than a year ago allowing the fleet to capture some upside in pricing. That said, a decline in power's gross margin in the quarter to $41.74 per megawatt hour from $0.42 and $0.7 reflects the impact of lower average prices on energy hedges. As we've indicated, we continue to expect bases to be seasonal that is positive in the winter assuming normal weather, and neutral to negative at other times of the year until more gas pipeline capacity goes into operation. Power continues to forecast output for 2016 of 15 to 52 terawatt hours. The forecast takes into account the extended outages at Salem as well as refueling outage at Hope Creek which is currently underway. Power has reduced its forecast of generation output for '17 and '18 by approximately 3 to 4%. Revised forecast recognizes the impact of low gas prices on the potential dispatch of the Keystone and Conemaugh coal fire generating stations with also some impact coming from the retirement of Hudson and Mercer's coal fire generating stations in mid 2017. Approximately, 75% to 80% of anticipated production in the fourth quarter of 2016 of 11 to 12 terawatt hours is hedged at an average price of $48 per megawatt hour. The average price per energy hedges for the full year approximates $50 per megawatt. And for 2017, Power has hedged 65 to 70% of its revised forecast to 51 to 53 terawatts hours of offering at an average price $47 per megawatt hour. And for 2018, Power has hedged approximately 25 to 30% of its revised forecast of 56 to 58 terawatts of output at an average price of $45 per megawatt hour. Hedged data continues to assume DGS hedges will cover 11 to 12 terawatt hours of output. The forecast of Power's non-GAAP operating earnings for 2016 has been revised to 460 to $500 million. And the forecast represents non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 1.270 billion to 1.35 billion. I would also like to point out that the retirement of Hudson and Mercer will continue to have an impact on Power's net income in the fourth quarter. In addition to the one-time charges recognized in the third quarter, Power expects to recognize incremental depreciation and amortization during the remainder of 2016 of $568 million per tax. And in 2017, Power expects to recognize incremental depreciation and amortization of 946 million pre-tax due to the shortening of the expected economic useful lives of Hudson and Mercer. Until the units are retired, we will continue to record a normal O&M and depreciation in our non-GAAP operating earnings. On an annual basis, these expenses amount to an estimated 60 million and 50 million pre-tax respectively. You should also see a reduction in Power's plan capital spending beyond 2017 of approximately 200 million to reflect the elimination of previously planned capital improvements at Hudson and Mercer. Now, I will turn to PSEG Enterprise and Other where we reported a net loss of $0.13 per share for the third quarter of 2016 compared to net income of $0.3 per share for the third quarter of 2015. Our non-GAAP operating earnings for the third quarter of 2016 were $0.04 per share compared to non-GAAP operating earnings of $0.03 per share for the third quarter of '15. During the third quarter of 2016 Energy Holdings completed its review of estimated residual values embedded in the NRG REMA leveraged leases. As a result of current and expected future market conditions, an impairment of $86 million after-tax related to the residual value of these leases was recorded in net income. The increase in non-GAAP operating earnings quarter-over-quarter results reflects certain tax items at PSEG Energy Holdings, and contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island. The forecast of PSEG Enterprise and other full-year 2016 non-GAAP operating earnings remains $65 million. PSEG also closed the quarter ended September 30, 2016 with $450 million of cash on its balance sheet, with debt at the end of the quarter representing approximately 45% of consolidated capital. PSEG Power had debt at the end of the quarter representing 28% of capital. As Ralph mentioned, we've adjusted our forecast for non-GAAP operating earnings for the full year to $2.80 -- to $2.95 per share from $2.80 to $3.00 per share. And with that we are ready for your questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Neel Mitra from Tudor, Pickering. Please go ahead with your question.
Neel Mitra:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Neel.
Neel Mitra:
Just based off of some of your peers' commentary, could you comment if you're seeing any cost inflation at your nuclear plants or any upwards pressure on pricing which you're having to contain?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Neel, so we have been commenting and participating in industry efforts to reverse the trend of some of the escalations in both O&M and capital being driven by the considerations emanating from the NRC. So we're part of an effort called Delivering the Nuclear Promise, to take the average industry cost structure of $35 a megawatt hour down to $30 a megawatt hour. We haven't released our specific cost structure, but suffice to say that we operate slightly below the industry average. So yes, there are cost pressures, but there's an active industry effort that we are front and center in participating to both control that escalation and reverse it.
Neel Mitra:
Got it. And then just moving to the Keys center, some of your recent commentary is based off of the fact that you like the location in Southwest MAAC [ph] within PJM. Could you comment on why that's a good location compared to some other locations in PJM for a new build?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. It's a couple of reasons. First of all, it is part of PJM-West hub where we do all of our hedging. So it does lend some balance to the portfolio, which is primarily PJM-East for where most our assets are located. It is a load pocket that is experiencing some modest degree of growth. There have been years where it looked like it was going to be about 4%. And it's been consistently the strongest pricing region from an energy market point of view in PJM for the past few years.
Neel Mitra:
Okay, perfect. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Travis Miller from Morningstar. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Looking at a high level, I know you guys like to have a strong balance sheet. Where you are right now with the growth projects that you have over the next two to three years, especially on the power side, how do you see that leverage changing? And to the extent that it stays in this kind of range, what's the opportunity to add leverage, perhaps up at the parent co or some other place on the balance sheet?
Ralph Izzo:
So I think our numbers are looked in, so when -- remained on average above 40% for the next three years given current market expectations. Our floor at Power is an FFO to debt of 30%, and as it's been the case in the past, Travis, our top priority is reinvesting in the business. That predominantly means reinvesting in regulated utility assets, although we continue to look for opportunities to acquire assets in Power that have allowed our portfolios in competitive markets that were interested in that being New York, New England, and PJM. But number one use of the balance sheet is reinvesting in the business. Number two is, given the cyclicality of the merchant generation business to provide support for the dividend in some of those ups and downs so that we can provide a consistent growth rate in that dividend. And last would be to repurchase shares if we were not seeing those growth opportunities, primarily in utility or had earnings that just dwarfed the growth in the dividend. But Dan, I don't know if you want to add some color to those specific numbers.
Dan Cregg:
Yes, what I would say Travis is we have had a lot of success in finding opportunities to deploy capital. And we even referenced today an excess of $600 million at the utility. So rough reference is reinvesting the capital on the businesses as opportunity number one, and that's what we have been able to do. And having a strong cash flow coming from the Power side of the business, and the ability to provide financing there at the parent is enabling of that growth that we have throughout the business.
Travis Miller:
Okay. And on those generation projects, would you expect to have a higher percentage share of debt or leverage there such that your entire balance sheet, certainly in a small way given the relative size, would move toward more leverage is –- the question there simply is, is there going to be extra leverage at those projects as you go through the construction phase?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, I mean, I think if you take a look at what we're investing in to the business on the power side of the business, and you take a look at what our cash flow is coming from the business, it pretty well supports the ability to build that, a, without any equity at the parent, but without growing that leverage capacity or that leverage utilization at Power.
Ralph Izzo:
And to Dan's point, Travis, both Power and the utility can support that capital program without any equity issuance in any of the forecasts that we're able to come up with.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question is from Angie Storozynski from Macquarie. Please proceed with your question.
Angie Storozynski:
Thank you. So first on the Power side. Can you comment on what you're seeing on the power base, not the gas bases, but the power bases for your combined cycle gas front? It seems like the output from your New York and New Jersey units have come down slightly over the year despite this hot summer. And we are hearing from other power producers -- gas-fired producers in PJM that they're seeing some expansion in a negative power base as due to some congestion on transmission line as well as the gas plants are running now -- well, often 24/7. Is this a phenomenon you are actually seeing at your units?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Angie, that is correct. So we're, as you know, the basis differentials are very seasonal in nature. They tend to be somewhat strongly negative in the off seasons, the spring and the fall, less negative in the summer, and they turn positive in the winter. It's driven by two factors, you've identified both of them, one is our gas basis differentials, and transmission congestion. I forget the name of the transmission asset down in the PG&E area that is undergoing some renewal. It's Bagley Grayston [ph] which I believe according to PJM is scheduled for completion sometime next spring. That's all public information; you should check the PJM Oasis board for confirmation that -- in case I have the date wrong. And then obviously from a gas point of view, there's a much healthier degree of infrastructure that's brining gas from the Marcellus to the New York-New Jersey region than there is going to the PJM West region, which is a bit of a misnomer. It's actually south of here. And until the infrastructure corrects that arbitrage opportunity you'll continue to see gas-based generation being less expensive to operate up here than it is down there. But we remain confident that over time the market does correct any anomalies that exist and arbitrage opportunities that exist. And there's no shortage of projects that are either in permitting or in construction to move gas to the south. And as I said, there is a specific transmission project underway to correct congestion project underway to correct the congestion that we're seeing in the PG&E area.
Angie Storozynski:
Great. And now on the utility side, in your prepared remarks you mentioned the double-digit growth rate and then you mentioned something about 8%. Can you actually or just remind me or repeat your comments about the -- was that about the rate base growth or was that about the longevity of the current double-digit earnings growth?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, as you know we don't forecast earnings growth. And what we've been forecasting is that for the next five years the utility capital program for approved programs, which support an 8% rate base growth and for programs that are fairly straight forward extensions of existing programs that 8% becomes 10%. But they've not been approved by the BPU yet. Of course as you know rate base growth is a good indicator of earnings growth, but then one has to add load growth and subtract O&M growth and those are two parts that are tougher to predict. We do a good job of controlling O&M. But I would not want to promise that we will be able to control O&M at a level of zero which is about the load has been growing, that's like 0.1%, 0.2%. So, it's suffice to say that the earnings growth would probably be a net subtraction from that net based growth, but we don't give an exact number, what that is.
Angie Storozynski:
Okay, thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
You are welcome.
Operator:
Your next question is from Praful Mehta from Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.
Praful Mehta:
Thank you. Hi, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
Hi, sorry -- first question was on the separation - the generation separation side, the PEG Power side, I know we we've talked about this before. But given how ITP's are trading today, they really seem to struggle and I was wondering in that market context, does it make sense to think about PEG Power being separated or do you now reconsider and think more keeping PEG Power as part of the whole, PSE&G family?
Ralph Izzo:
I really don't have a lot new, to say about this subject. If we may - if and when or we were to make such a decision, it would be a market timing decision, it would have to do with the strength of the strategic arguments in favor of separation dwarfing the tactical benefits, that we continue to believe dominate the picture today in terms of staying together. So sure, you wouldn't try and do something in the middle of economic instability or major macroeconomic you can have like disruptions, but we're not market timers, the real question is, do we still have the financial synergies between the business, do we still have the build synergy between the business, do we still have a long-term investors who see the attractiveness of both, that's kind of strategic flexibility questions that we've talked about before.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough. Thank you. And then, growing has been the nuclear discussion that we were having earlier, there is obviously discussion in New York to support nuclear with through this X program. Do you see other states looking to implement something like this or do you see that as a possibility in New Jersey or Pennsylvania in terms of support from nuclear or carbon free generation?
Ralph Izzo:
I do. I think, that a lot of states are realizing that these are long-lived assets these mean the nuclear plants that provides enormous benefits both from a carbon point of view, from a fuel diversity point of view, from a reliability point of view, and most of our markets are fairly short-term in nature, even three your capacity prices don't capture the full benefit of what I expect to be fairly extensive debate on how carbons to be priced in the future. So they -- every state may not come up with its own remedy, and regrettably the right remedy would be a national remedy, but we don't seem to have a lot of traction in that regard right now. So I do see most of the action focused at state-by-state level.
Praful Mehta:
I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from Gregg Orrill from Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes. Thank you. I guess two questions. First, are you able to provide what your transmission rate base is for year-end '16 and '17? And then what are your thoughts around acquiring nuclear and/or coal asset?
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Greg. It's good to hear from you. So I'm going to do a little. People scurry around to find the rate base number, I do know that by '18 it's 50% of the rate base price -- by the end of 2018, but I don't know what it is. Now Dan has the magic numbers, where he's going to take you through?
Dan Cregg:
I think we are -- I think what we've done historically as we put out numbers for particular years and then given some ranges in between those years. So I think you're heading towards about $7 billion, as you approach '16, and then with the overall growth in capital, you would see increases there, but we will provide kind of our normal set of numbers within our next update like…
Ralph Izzo:
I knew you are going to make it up, Dan, I wouldn't refer to. Gregg, your second question on interest on acquiring coal, we are believers in nuclear, but at the right price of course we would be interested, but we are not -- we have no interest in adding coal to our fleet, nor would you see us be a large fleet acquirer, I do think that in general, we signaled through our investors that our primary investors in the regulated utility and that's what we continue put our emphasis.
Gregg Orrill:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Mitchell Moss from Lord Abbett. Please proceed with your question.
Mitchell Moss:
Hey, guys, just quick questions on, first, just a follow-up on Angie's question regarding the combined cycle. How they are running with due to transmission gas supply issues. Do you see some of these issues being resolved by 2017 in terms of just gas takeaway in transmission or do you see it in longer terms, sort of a 2018 and beyond type of an issue.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So Mitchell, of course we are operating with the same crystal ball as you are, which without being too critical of your crystal ball, ours is pretty cloudy. Having said that, it's more of an '18 to '19 timeframe that these projects we think will have a takeaway capacity impact.
Mitchell Moss:
And regarding the REMA leases that you mentioned, you took a charge on. Have you been involved in any of the negotiations that NRG has mentioned with bondholders or with leaseholders as part of the any, I guess restructuring discussion?
Ralph Izzo:
No we haven't, Mitchell. I mean, we are obviously aware as you are of where the current situations are and certainly ready for discussions when the time is right, but not as yet.
Mitchell Moss:
Do you guys have a view on whether or not the REMA lease could be broken or restructured in a bankruptcy or is it a bankruptcy proof, I guess?
Ralph Izzo:
I think we are going to let that play out and let time tell what's going to happen. I think it's a fairly complicated situation and we'll let time become our best estimate. We got some disclosures within our 10-Q, that give you a little bit of sense as to, some thoughts on it. But I think, where it ends is ahead of us, yes.
Mitchell Moss:
Okay, great, Thank you so much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Ginger. We can give back 15 minutes to folks if there are no further questions.
Operator:
Yes. So, there are no further questions. Presenters, please -- for any closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. So just to summarize, hopefully what you heard is that Power capital program remains on-budget, on-schedule, and based on current prices is still expected to create strong value for us. The utility continues to identify new customer-driven investment opportunities that fuel its growth. Lastly, there is no question we have a relentless focus on cost control. It's part of everyday life at PSEG. So with that, I'll just wish everyone a happy Halloween. We look forward to seeing you next week in Phoenix, and thanks for joining us this morning, take care everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally – Investor Relations Ralph Izzo – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Cregg – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Travis Miller – Morningstar Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Praful Mehta – Citigroup Brian Chin – Bank of America Shahriar Pourreza – Guggenheim Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Jonathan Arnold – Deutsch bank Anthony Crowdell – Jefferies
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent and I am your event operator today. I’d like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group’s Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session from members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday July 29, 2016 and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2’clock p.m. Eastern today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern on August 5, 2016. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com. I’d now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Brent. Good morning. Thank you all for participating in PSEG’s call this morning. As you are aware, we released our second quarter 2016 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachments are posted on our website, www.pseg.com, under the Investor section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2016 is expected to be filed shortly. I won’t read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but as you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes unless of course we are required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operated earnings. Please refer today’s 8-K or other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecasts and expectations and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. Joining raffle on the call is Dan Craig, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you everyone for joining us today. PSEG’s results for the second quarter were characterized by a tough environment for power markets, but also with continued growth associated with PSEG’s expanded capital program. Earlier this morning, we reported net income for the quarter of $0.37 per share. Operating earnings for the second quarter of 2016 were $0.57 per share; operating earnings were in with the $0.57 per share earnings in 2015 second quarter. The results for the quarter bring operating earnings for the first half of 2016 to $1.48 per share, which compares with operating earnings of $1.61 per share earned in 2015’s first half. Slides 4 and 5 contain the detail on the results for the quarter and the first half. PSE&G’s execution on its expanded capital investment program continues to provide a growing source of earnings and powers prudent management of reductions in O&M, minimize the impact of the extended outage at sale on earnings. PSE&G is on track to invest $3 billion in 2016 as part of its five-year, $12 billion capital program. PSE&G’s ability to earn its authorized return on investment continues to drive out forecast for double-digit growth in PSE&G’s 2016 earnings. We continue to look for opportunities to grow in a manner that meets customer demand for reliable, efficient and clean energy and provides the risk-adjusted return demanded by shareholders. In the past quarter, we have identified more than $500 million of additional investment opportunities at our regulated utility company, PSE&G. During the past quarter, PSE&G requested an extension from the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities of its existing land fill, brownfield solar program. The program would add 100 megawatts of grid-connected solar facilities over a five-year period at a cost of approximately $240 million. The program would also create 575 direct jobs in New Jersey during the construction period and allow all customers to share in the benefits of solar. We hope to see a decision on this request during the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, PSE&G has increased its estimate of distribution capital expenditures over 2016 through 2018 like $300 million to address what is commonly referred to as new business requests and to replace certain aging equipment and infrastructure. As I mentioned, these programs together would represent an increase of more than $500 million over PSE&G’s current plans to invest $12 billion over the five-year period ending 2020. PSE&G’s robust investment program will ensure that remains one of the most reliable utilities in the nation as was demonstrated during periods of intense heat and thunderstorm activity experienced over the past two weeks. The investment program will also improve on PSE&G’s growth and rate base currently forecasted at 8% per year for the five-year period ending 2020. The powers capital program is also an important response for the needs of today’s market, which requires that we operate at greater levels of reliability and efficiency. The planned replacement of older generating capacity at the Sewaren and Bridgeport station and new capacity at Keys amounts to 1,800 megawatts of new, clean and efficient gas fired capacity over the next three years. This will transform Power’s fleet and enhance its competitive position. We will see an increase in capacity. We will see an increase in reliability. We will see an increase in efficiency and we will see a reduction in carbon emission. Although Power has focused on the construction of the new combined cycle units, Power’s also committed to improving the efficiency of existing capacity and ensuring its long-term availability. This can be seen through completion of a small upgrade at its peaking stations which adds 14 megawatts to capacity. Power also plans to increase the efficiency and capacity of the Bethlehem Energy Center through advanced gas path upgrades of the turbines over 2017 and 2018. When completed, this work is expected to add 58 megawatts to BEC’s capacity. And the recent issuance of a final renewal permit of the Salem station that meets the requirements of Section 316b of the Clean Water Act helps to assure the long-term availability of this zero carbon generating resource. Finally, Power has made targeted reductions in its workforce and continues to identify additional means of reducing its cost structure to assure the availability and dispatch of the fleet in the current low-price environment. The power market over the short-term continues to be characterized by an oversupply of gas. The market, however, has shown signs of improvement as gas prices have responded to a decline in production. The improvement in the supply picture and the development of more outlets for supply has also led to an improvement in forward basis. As we’ve indicated in the past, we continue to expect basis to be seasonal that is positive in the winter and neutral to negative in the summer, until more takeaway capacity goes into operation. In May 2016, PJM announced the results of the RPM auction for the 2019, 2020 delivery year. Power cleared approximately 8,900 megawatts of its generating capacity at an average price of $116 per megawatt day. The average price received by Power while lower than prior auction continues to represent a premium to the average price for capacity in the RTO. Prices in the most recent auction reflect PJM’s downwardly revised demand forecast, changes in the emergency transfer limits due to its transition expansion and the effects of both new generation and unclear generation from the prior year’s auction. However, the results of the RPM auction were in line with our expectations. Nearly all of Power’s clear capacity in the latest auction complies with PJM’s capacity performance requirements and the fleet is expected to be in a position to meet PJM’s requirement that 100% of capacity for the 2020 to 2021 delivery year must meet those CP requirements. On the regulatory front, FERC has approved two of the five recommended steps to improve energy price formation. Further efforts to address transparency in the scheduling of capacity could lead to an approved alignment of prices with costs. The year has presented challenges. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we’re maintaining operating earnings guidance for 2016 of $2.80 to $3 per share. But it will be difficult to reach the upper end of the guidance even with an improvement in the power markets, expectations for warm summer weather, restoration of normal operations at Salem and ongoing cost control and management of O&M. Our highly skilled workforce has met the market’s challenges through the right sizing of resources and by identifying investments that meet customer needs. Our dedication to customer service, our strong balance sheet and our ability to invest in the future of the company are expected to drive long-term value creation. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Dan, who will discuss our financials in greater detail and then I’ll be available for your questions.
Dan Cregg:
Thank you, Ralph, and thank you for everyone for joining us today. As Ralph said, PCG reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2016 at $0.57 per share, the same as operating earnings at $0.57 per share in last year’s second quarter. The reconciliation of operating earnings to net income for the quarter can be found on Slide 4. We've also provided you with a water fall chart on slide 10 that takes you through the net changes and the quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on slide 12 provides you with the changes on operating earnings by business on a year-to-date basis. I'll now review each company a little bit more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported net income for the second quarter of 2016 at $0.35 per share compared with $0.33 per share for the second quarter of 2015 or a 6% improvement in earnings. The results for the quarter are shown on slide 14. PSE&G's operating results for the second quarter reflect the impact of revenue growth associated with an expansion of the company's capital investment program. Returns on PSE&G's expanded investment and transmission added $0.03 per share to earnings for the quarter. An increase in depreciation and O&M expenses were $0.02 was partially offset by a decline in taxes and other items. The higher level of depreciation is related to the growth in capital spending and higher levels of O&M reflect increased spending on vegetation management. The New Jersey economy continues to show steady growth and employment levels have shown improvement from a year ago. The variability in quarterly data for weather normalized electric and gas sales has been high given extreme weather comparisons. Weather normalized electric sales reflect growth in residential and commercial customers, which is offset by the continuing decline in the industrial sector and increased energy efficiency measures. So, on a trailing 12-month basis, weather normalized electric sales were essentially flat. PSE&G's capital programming remains on schedule. PSE&G invested approximately $1.4 billion during the first half of the year as part of its planned 2016 capital program of $3 billion. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G has identified investment opportunities which, if approved, will increase PSE&G’s five-year capital program by approximately $500 million to $12.5 billion. And you should expect the majority of this increase in spending will occur between 2016 and 2018. Once again, all of this growth will be funded without the need to issue new equity. As you may recall, PSE&G implemented $146 million increase in annual transmission revenue under the company's transmission formula rate filing which took effect this past January. This increase in revenue adjusted to reflect the impact of bonus depreciation and updates of spending in prior years will be reflected in PSE&G's earnings throughout the year. But I'll also remind you that the quarter-to-quarter earnings comparisons associated with PSE&G 's investment and transmission are not expected to be even during the second half of the year. The recognition of bonus depreciation for 2015 and some other expenses at the end of the year reduced PSE&G's fourth quarter 2015 earnings by about $0.04 per share. The contributions to earnings from energy's strong capital program will also be more evident during the second half of the year given growth in the energy strong-related spending and the shape of the rate structure which places more emphasis on the demand charges during the third quarter. We are increasing our forecast in PSE&G operating earnings for 2016 to $900 million to $935 million from $875 to $925 million. And the change incorporates cost-control efforts and a strong start to summer weather. Now let's turn to power. PSE&G Power reported a net loss for the quarter of $11 million or $0.02 per share compared with net income of $166 million or $0.33 per share for the year-ago quarter. Operating earnings were $0.18 per share for the second quarter of 2016 and adjusted EBITDA was $272 million as compared with operating earnings of $0.22 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $301 million for the second quarter of 2015. Our adjusted EBITA excludes the same items of operating earnings as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation, and amortization and major maintenance at Power's fossil generating facilities. The earnings release and Slide 20 provide you with detailed analysis of Power’s operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. We've also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter and the first half of the year on Slides 22 and 23. Power’s operating results for the second quarter reflect the impact of the known decline in PJM capacity revenues and average prices on energy hedges, in addition to the effect of an extended refueling outage at Salem 1. Decline in capacity revenue associated with the June 2015 retirement of capacity in PJM reduced quarter-over-quarter income by $0.02 per share. And capacity revenue during the second half of 2016 should approximate the revenues received during the last six months of 2015. Earnings comparisons in the quarter were also impacted by decline in the average price received on energy hedges as well as lower market prices and gas volumes, which together reduced Power’s quarter- over-quarter income by $0.03 per share. A decline in output reduced income by $0.01 per share. Reduction in O&M expense improved Power's quarter-over-quarter income by $0.07 per share. This improvement reflects the absence in 2016 of costs incurred during the second quarter of 2015 for the refueling outage at the Hope Creek nuclear plant which is 100% owned by Power and major maintenance work at our combined-cycle units. And the quarterly comparisons also benefited from targeted reductions in O&M at powers nuclear and fossil stations as well as from changes in the management of work schedules associated with the Salem 1 refueling outage which minimized the overall cost of the outage. As we mentioned during the first quarter earnings call, the Salem 1 refueling outage which began on April 14 would be extended to repair degraded baffle bolts. The bolt replacement has been completed and the unit is in the process of returning to service. During the quarter an increase in depreciation expense was offset by declining interest expense. However, an absence in 2016 of tax credits received in a year-ago quarter and other tax items contributed to a reduction in quarter-over-quarter income up $0.05 per share. Turning to Power’s operations, output at Power’s generating facilities declined 6% in the quarter as a result of lower wholesale market prices and reduced demand. Output from the gas fire combined-cycle fleet declined slightly to 4.4 terawatt hours from 4.6 terawatt hours given mild weather conditions relative to the year-ago quarter. Low gas prices impacted the dispatch of powers coal fire fleet and during the quarter the output from the coal fleet declined to 0.9 terawatt hours from 1.3 terawatt hours. Output from the nuclear fleet was largely unchanged in the quarter with 7 terawatt hours in this quarter versus 7.1 terawatt hours in the year-ago quarter. The impact of the extended outages at Salem was largely offset by an increase in output at Peach Bottom. In completion of the extended power operated at Peach Bottom, added 130 megawatts in the aggregate to Powers' interest in the station. Salem 2 was out of service for three days at the end of the quarter and remains out of service. The unplanned outage at Salem 2 is a result of an electrical fault in the reactor's non-nuclear balance of plan. The extension of the outage at Salem 1 into July and the unplanned outage at Salem 2 will have a continuing effect on performance in the third quarter. Power's gross margin in the second quarter declined to $38.54 per megawatt hour from $40.15 per megawatt hour. Power's margin in the quarter experienced only a modest benefit from the gas fire combined-cycle fleet's access to low-cost gas. A lack of demand and low volatility in the market, given an excess supply of gas, pressured spark spreads. The power markets over the last month have seen prices move to higher levels, given the impact on gas supply from hotter than normal weather and declines in production. An improvement in load and prices will help margins on base load units as an increase in regional gas prices, but also support margins at the gas fired combined-cycle fleet. For the year Power is revising its forecast of output to 50 to 52 terawatt hours from the prior forecast of 52 to 54 terawatt hours. And the updated forecast incorporates the results for the first half of the year and takes into account the extension of the outage of both units at Salem. As shown on Slide 26, approximately 75% to 80% of anticipated production for the second half 2016 of 25 to 26 terawatt hours is hedged at an average price of $50 per megawatt hour. For 2017 Power has hedged 55% to 60% of its forecast generation, up 53 to 55 terawatt hours at an average price of $48 of megawatt hour. And for 2018, Power has hedged approximately 25% to 30% of forecast generation of 58 to 60 terawatt hours at an average price of $46 per megawatt hour. The forecast and increase in output for 2018 reflects the commercial start-up of the new gas fired combined cycle capacity at the keys and C1 stations. The percentage of energy hedge for 2017 and 2018 is slightly greater than what we communicated to you earlier this year and in line with our practice. We've adjusted our forecast to Power's full year 2016 operating earnings to $460 million to $525 million from $490 million to $540 million. So, incorporate the results for the first half of the year. The revised forecast represents an adjusted EBITDA of $1.27 billion to $1.375 billion. I'll turn to PSEG Enterprise and other. The net income for PSEG Energy Holdings and Enterprise in the second quarter of 2016 was $19 million or $0.04 per share versus net income of $12 million or $0.02 per share for the second quarter of 2015. The increase in quarter-over-quarter income reflects contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island and certain tax items at PSEG Energy Holdings. We raised our forecast for the full year of operations to $65 million. Our financial position remains strong. PSEG closed the quarter ended June 30, 2016 with $648 million of cash on its balance sheet with debt at the end of the quarter representing 45% of consolidated capital. During the quarter, Power issued $700 million of 3% five-year senior notes due in 2021. We do not foresee the need to issue equity to finance or expand the capital program. And as Ralph mentioned, we are maintaining our forecast of operating earnings for the full year of $2.80 to $3 per share. And with that, we'll be happy to take any questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] You first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Jonathan. Are you there?
Operator:
Mr. Arnold, please make sure your line is not on mute.
Ralph Izzo:
Power is still working in this building so...
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thanks.
Ralph Izzo:
Hey, Travis. Good morning.
Travis Miller:
I was wondering if we look ahead more generally to 2019, 2020 when you guys have your new plant online, and PJM in your region and the other plants that are proposed, what are your thoughts on spark spreads? Obviously, we've seen what's happened in the capacity markets. But what are your thoughts on what happens to spark spreads?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, so Travis, I mean by that point, we will have grid plans up – we will have one in Connecticut, one in New Jersey and one in Maryland and it really will depend upon the infrastructure that's being built in each of those locations. As you know, all of those sites do have gas on the property. But we're seeing an increased importance in regional spark spreads. Right now in our region we're seeing sparks spreads giving our access to natural gas with that $20, down at Pepco. It's pretty close to that, the forwards they are saying it could be as high as $23 still I mean we certainly make these investment decisions on the expectation that the combination of either locked in or anticipated capacity prices plus those spark spreads would allow us to recover our cost of capital and then some. So as you know, our history is we don't – we don't usually pick numbers that are different than what the market is telling us. So right now, the local spark spreads defined region by region is in the $20 range.
Travis Miller:
Okay. So pretty flat type of curve that you think.
Ralph Izzo:
I think the dynamic will be modified as the infrastructure gets built.
Travis Miller:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
Now for a good six months or so.
Travis Miller:
Great, and then on the - you guys have been benefiting for quite a while on that Marcellus gas basis at Power. When does that cycle off in terms of incremental growth? When does it stop being a net benefit I suppose, relative to the previous years?
Ralph Izzo:
So therein lies the value of a diversified fleet. One would expect that as infrastructure gets built from the region to mostly Southeastern markets that you'll see an increase – a decrease in price in other parts of the country which don't have that access, and an increase in price here which will diminish our regional sparks spread advantage but that should also then help our nuclear plants. So it's been an ongoing source of pride for us that diversity of technology and fuel allows us to deliver some consistency in terms of the margins that we – that we're able to capture. And then of course, one cannot ignore the seasonal variations that will persist even once the infrastructure gets built.
Travis Miller:
Sure. Okay. Thanks. I always appreciate the thoughts.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Julien. Good morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So I wanted to ask kind of a bigger picture strategic question about the fate of nuclear in New Jersey, if you can think through that with us. What is your current positioning on the need for support and the price for carbon in New Jersey specifically? Perhaps not just with respect to RGGI, but looking at parallels from New York, how are you positioned in this state?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Julien, thank you for asking the question because I want to make sure that there's clarity of understanding around that. There's a lot going on in the nation around nuclear. I don't know the latest numbers. I think 10 to 15 plants are rumored to be at risk of retiring. Half a dozen have retired. Our dilemma is that as active industry participants, frustrated by an absence of carbon value given to nuclear plants and seeing what's happening around us, is we're trying to engage policy makers in a conversation that nuclear is not getting the credit it deserves. Our challenge is our plants are quite healthy economically, so notwithstanding the importance of carbon, I think the motivation in other markets are some of the near-term economic consequences of shutting those plants given their lack of profitability. So we don't have that situation. We're glad we don't have that situation. But it does – it does sort of impair our ability to have the same level of interest and participation in the discussion. So we've been talking about fuel diversity. We've been talking about 90 plus percent capacity factors and what it would mean should long-term forces require the replacement of that. Whatever those long-term forces might be but it is kind of a difficult conversation to have given how many pressing problems are staring policy makers in the face right this minute. So on the one hand, yes, I don't want to go on ad nauseum. We feel strongly that nuclear is not getting the credit, i.e., price it deserves but we cannot and we do not make the claim that our plants are at any kind of economic risk in the near term the way others are.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
So perhaps to expand on that, no specific efforts in New Jersey and/or thoughts on kind of nascent efforts at PJM to perhaps more appropriately price in diversity?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no, no. We are having early conversations that – in both forms – about what that kind of more accurate representation of the value could look like. And we're informing people who don't study this stuff as much as we do about what’s being proposed in the New York State and what's been discussed in Connecticut and what didn't happen in Vermont and Massachusetts and Wisconsin and what that led to and what doesn't appear to be happening in Illinois. So we're not just walking around saying, boy, I wish the world was different. We're talking to people who care about these things, about what the consequences have been and – in places were nothing took place and what would happen – what's being proposed in other places. At PJM, I think there's much more of a focused on reliability associated with such large quantities of baseload power that don't have the seasonal challenges of access to gas and back-up fuels. But I think that historically PJM of course has not viewed itself, nor should it, as an implementer of environmental policy. So the conversation can be broader at the State level than the stakeholder process at PJM.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it, and then completely separate question, just in terms of Power. Are you still thinking about expanding the footprint of Power? Obviously you have been through the different diversification efforts. Where you think you are with respect to having an adequate scale in that business, and/or desirability of further investments? I will leave it there.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. No, no. So I think some power has some – has stated its desire to expand in New England, New York and PJM. We think that those are the most efficient markets given the combination of energy and capacity value in all three of them. We have also said that we do not anticipate any new build. We thought we have three very unique situations but in the flat demand world with pretty much an over-supply condition, arguably all three locations but certainly in two of them, injecting new supply does not appear to be a winning proposition. From the point of view of a power scale, I mean, in terms of its reach, I'd like to see it have a little bit more of a robust portfolio outside of PJM than it currently has, but its certainly would be one of the largest, if not the largest, independent power producer on its own if that is where you're headed with that question. Power doesn't have a lot of megawatts, but it's financial strength and its profitability I think are quite unique. And something that we are very proud of and we work hard to preserve that in making our operating and investment decisions. So there’s – so the way we – we intend in the near-term to grow Power is the way we’ve been trying to which is through selective acquisitions of existing supply. As you know, we’ve not been successful at doing that. The one project we landed was the keys project and there probably because our perception of construction risk management was different than others. So I hope that answers your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Yes, absolutely. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Praful Mehta:
All right. Thank you. So just following-up on that question on the future of Power, there looks to be clearly some Texas generation that will be in the market soon. Is there an interest in partnering up with Texas, or is Texas not a market that you look to enter?
Dan Craig:
No. Praful, you may recall was just a few years ago that we exited Texas. It’s not a market that we would want to re-enter at this time.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough. All right, and secondly in terms of capacity prices, I know you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you weren't surprised by the current capacity trend. I wanted to get a sense for how you are looking at long-term capacity prices in PJM, and also, what was driving or what is minimum threshold that you looked at when you were making your investment decisions, that instead of a particular price that you thought capacity prices need to stay at to hit your IRR?
Dan Craig:
So in terms of longer-term, as you know, we don’t forecast prices. What we think will be different about next-year’s auctions than this year’s are a couple factors. Number one is the requirement that 100% of the assets be CP compliant. Number two, we will have a market effect due to a recent announcement, an April announcement by ConEdison that a wheel that they were party to – they will no longer make use of and that wheel had the effect of a net transfer into our region of about 400 megawatts which will now no longer be the case. Also, we don’t anticipate the kind of step change in PJM’s demand forecast that took place prior to the last auction. We have been the primary builder of major transmission and while we still have a very robust transmission program, most of those projects are not involved in significant transfer capability, they’re more at the 69 to 230 KV level within the zone. The second half of your question, what did we look at. So we do have an internal rate of return expectation. That is well-above our utility return expectations. And we look at the combination of energy margin and capacity margin when making that decision. Suffice it to say, obviously the fact that we’re going ahead and building the prices that we realized last year in the auction and this year in Connecticut were sufficient for us to go ahead. So there’s no one magic number in terms of capacity that says go ahead and build, it’s the combination of capacity and energy together over the long term, that we look at.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough. Thanks so much guys.
Dan Craig:
You’re welcome.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Brian Chin:
Hi. Good morning.
Dan Craig:
Good morning, Brian.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Chin:
We've seen a number of your peers announce greater investment in utility scale renewables, while I appreciate your earlier comment that you're not looking to expand in Power, I was wondering if you can comment on renewable outlook in the Northeast, given just how quickly renewable costs has been declining, and how improvements in technology have changed the landscape from the last couple years?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Brian. First, we don’t have any peers. That’s number one. I’m sorry. It’s just a personal point of view. Number two, in terms of renewables, you know we’ve been active on two fronts. On the unregulated side, we have about 300 megawatts that are in 12 or 14 states. I’ve lost track. And we specifically embarked on a crawl-walk-run strategy, I'd say right now we are jogging. And those projects have done well. Everyone of them have met their pro formas. In fact, most one of them has slightly exceeded their pro formas. Most of our solar investment, however, has been concentrated in PSE&G and that’s been a blended of rooftop funded solar, where we don’t own the assets, but we have regulatory assets that support the rooftop and then grid connected. As you know, in New Jersey, grid connected is measured in single-digit megawatt as opposed to double or triple digital megawatts. Notwithstanding the impressive price improvements of these installations, they still are substantially above conventional technology power prices. So our estimates right now are that, in New Jersey, people pay anywhere from $4 to $6 a month for solar energy and that’s typical residential homeowner obviously, the average homeowner means that there’s a bunch of people pay more, a bunch of people pay less. In all of our customer survey information suggest that, that is at or above the level that people are comfortable paying. So our pursuit of solar in PSE&G is really driven by the RPS and the desire to achieve those policy-mandated targets at as low a price as possible and doing things three and four megawatts at a time on landfill. It’s a lot less expensive than giving them two to three kilowatt hours at a time on roof tops. But one has to be careful, even three and five megawatts at a time as to what the bill impact is. So we’re long-standing fans of solar. We are not apologists for it, but we do have to balance the bill impacts. So we pursue those opportunities in-state in accordance with the RPS, and in other states in accordance with those utilities needs to meet their RPS and secure those investments through power purchase agreements.
Brian Chin:
Got it. Thank you very much. That’s all I got.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shahriar Pourreza with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Hey, Dan and Ralph.
Dan Craig:
Hey. Good morning.
Shahriar Pourreza:
So most of my questions were answered, but just curious, Ralph, you've, historically on the Power side, you have talked about still having potentially, and let me know if I'm putting words in your mouth, of an interest in the U.S. nuclear business given your diversified fleet at PEG Power, but one of the curtailments of that business has been the mechanisms or lack of mechanisms or the constructs haven't been appropriate. But now that you are looking at some of what's happening in your surrounding states, that environment could be potentially improving. So when you look at Power, you look at its balance sheet and you look at selective acquisitions to increase scale, what you're seeing around you, does it open up the doors of maybe looking at nuclear?
Ralph Izzo:
No, Shah. I mean, let me make sure I interpreted the question correctly in terms of new nuclear power, the economics just aren’t there. Every indication of the availability of natural gas and the duration of that availability, and the likely price range that we would see, would suggest that new nuclear and emerging company would not be an economic wise thing to do.
Shahriar Pourreza:
No, I think what I am relating to is pre-existing nuclear assets that could potentially have contracted cash flows for the next few years.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean, if you had contracted cash flows and they met the hurdle rate, we think that nuclear has a long-term future. But as we were saying just a few minutes ago with Julien and Praful, others seem to, invariably when we show up to buy an existing asset, they add a couple dollars to the forward price curve and we don’t tend to win. So in terms of purchasing existing assets so much is driven by the kind of the winner’s curse and your view of where forward prices are going and our is I think more disciplined approach of saying that we are not smarter than the market. So I would think that the practicality of that would be somewhat limiting.
Shahriar Pourreza:
Got it. Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes are the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey guys. Question on the regulated site on E&G and it's actually a handful of questions. First of all, the $300 million increase in distribution CapEx, can you talk a little bit about how you get cost recovery on that, and whether, if it is not being tracked, does that increase the potential for regulatory lag at E&G over the next couple of years?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So, Michael, thanks for the question. So two things; number one, part of that $300 million is what's called new business, so there's new revenue that comes with new business. But equally, if not more importantly, as you know, we have to go in for a rate case in November of 2017. So we are doing some things that need to be done, and we are timing them as such that they will fit into the rate base for the test year. So they will be covered by the rate case with minimalist – if any regulatory lag at all.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Another thing, how are you thinking about the ability to manage O&M at E&G over the next – really what's in 2016 guidance but also how you're thinking about it over the next one to two years, maybe 2017, 2018 both core O&M and then when you think about what's happened with interest rates, discount rates and what it means for the pension component of your O&M and E&G.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. I'll let Dan talk about the pension. But we don't look at O&M on an – it's time to check out O&M perspective. We look at it every day. So we just extended contracts with six out of our eight unions, not all of them were in the utility, but our three largest utility unions were included in that six out of eight, and those were all at reasonable escalation. They were wage increases of 3% per year, but benefit trade-offs that reduced the over-all O&M growth. So we kept utility O&M growth to a little bit over CPI, I think it's 2%-ish, thereabouts. I don't remember exactly CPIs, but I know what our O&M growth rate has been – is just little bit over 2%. We just pay attention to that every day. We are not believers in getting inefficient before rate case, and taking costs out of the business right after it. That is – first of all, it is not a great way to build confidence with regulators, and it's not a good way to manage the operation. In terms of pension, yes, lower interest rates are not going to be great for the PBO, but strong market performance which we've seen will be. But Dan, you may want to add some more color to that.
Dan Cregg:
No, I mean, I think that's exactly right and it's a little bit of a wait and see. I think a lot on the PBO side, exactly what Ralph referenced. The discount rate is going to be determined really when we get to the end of the year. So that’s uncertain until we get there and returns have been doing pretty well. So I think, keeping an eye on those things as we move toward year end, will track where we go in the pension. And in the interim, just try to manage overall and stand whether it storms, whether it's any new requirements we have for inspections or veg management and trying to manage it as a whole which I think we've done successfully in the past and we would intend to do into the future is how we'll go forward.
Michael Lapides:
Dan, have you ever talked about what the sensitivity is to every 25 basis points change in the interest rate? For pension O&M. Sorry.
Dan Cregg:
Yes. Ultimately, it is going to have an impact those on what the obligation turns out to be, and the components of what your returns are. And yes, we do look at that internally to try to see where it goes, but fact of the matter is at the end of the day, the discount rate is going to be the discount rate. So it's something that we need to manage having come at us because we can't control that as a rate itself.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, guys. I'll follow-up offline. Much appreciated.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Mike.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsch bank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys. Sorry. I was offline when I called before. Ralph, you've mentioned a sort of some level of interest in the retail business as a way of past market, I believe. Can you update us on your thoughts there and obviously a large booklet one would imagine would have had some sort of geographic interest to you just transacted and with someone else was that bigger type of portfolio that you might be interested in? Or any perspective that might be great.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, Jonathan. First of all, it was good to hear you. I was a little concerned when you disappeared on us before. No, we remain interested in retail for our defensive purposes, managing basis risk and not as a significant growth opportunity by any stretch of the imagination. We've looked at some boutique shops including the transaction you just referenced right now. I suspect that we are going to run into the same issues in looking at those types of potential tuck-in acquisitions as we do in power plants that our discipline, somewhat I consider an approach to pricing these things will result in us perhaps not being able to roll up what we need to roll up from an inquisitive point of view. So we are starting to pay our attention to just building some capability in-house because again, our ambitions here are modest. They're defensive and it's conceivable that an organic approach could be quite a bit more profitable point of view from return expectations. Sorry, Jonathan. I seem to have left a deafening silence.
Jonathan Arnold:
Sorry. I had the mute button on again. What stage would you describe that sort of internal look at? Have you started to sort of keep together or are you just thinking about it?
Ralph Izzo:
We've hired some folks and we've started looking around it kind of systems that we would need that are a little different from the systems we have now. We're preparing to file the necessary documents one needs to be certified or licensed. I figured the exact terminology to engage in this business – be a separate and different function than our current wholesale trading arm.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. But it's actually something you're – it's beginning to move on, but nothing small.
Ralph Izzo:
Correct.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Ralph Izzo:
You're welcome.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Anthony Crowdell':
Good morning. I just had a quick question on I guess the hedge volumes slide 26. I look at the 18 hedge volumes. It doesn't look like there was a big change in the percentage hedge from the first quarter announcement, but the price change went from $54 to $46. Can you provide any clarity on that?
Dan Cregg:
Yes, Anthony, I think we were up at the midpoint of those reigns split up about 5% from the first quarter until now. There's a piece that is about a huge move – a piece of it is as well is that earlier in our over-all hedging trajectory, more of the volume is BGS-oriented. So if you think about what that price is, it includes some non-pure energy items. And as we step further through our hedging, we end up with a little bit more just kind of blocked pure energy trades, which tends to have a more moderating effect on the price itself.
Anthony Crowdell':
Okay. Great. You're saying earlier in the near when you hedged, I guess, the first hedges you put on a more BGS-oriented hedges and as you move throughout the year and you lay on more hedges, that's more of just an energy market?
Dan Cregg:
So if you think about when the BGS auction happens in February of 2015, you'll have that stuff and going into 2018 and then 2016 we'll have the same effect on 2018. So that accounts for a higher percentage of the volume earlier on and as we step into some of the energy hedges, that number tends to go down a little bit by virtue of the nature of the hedge that we're putting on.
Anthony Crowdell':
It's like the wedding of Cana, I guess; the better wine first. Thanks for your help.
Ralph Izzo:
Good one, Anthony.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks, Anthony.
Ralph Izzo:
That's great.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] We will pause for just a moment.
Ralph Izzo:
Brent, that was probably a great note to end on, if there are no further questions.
Dan Cregg:
Nobody wants to follow that comment.
Operator:
Okay. Mr. Izzo, Mr. Cregg, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation.
Ralph Izzo:
So I'm told by Kathleen that many of you folks had a very busy morning with some other calls, so I always am grateful for your participation with a special thank you today given how much was going on prior to us. So in keeping with prior practices, let me just summarize what I hope were the key takeaways for you. The utility growth driven by customer needs and policy maker priorities is really continuing unabated rather than showing up year after each investor meeting telling you about what we found, we're trying to do a better job of keeping you apprised of things as we locate them. So we have about a little bit over $500 million of new stuff that we'll be doing, $300 million which we'll definitely going to do and a couple hundred million of which we're waiting for BPU feedback on. Power remains quite focused on markets managing its costs, its performance and its investment decisions with a real disciplined adherence to what the market is telling us. So some challenging price environments, some great O&M control. And then third and final take away is that this balance sheet remained strong. There's no change in our dividend policy. We continue to have the belief or the opportunity for sustained growth in that dividend that continues and yet these expanding investment needs at the utility and opportunities at the utility can be met without any new equity. So I think we are on a little hiatus for a couple weeks and we will be back on the road in September and certainly see all of you early in November. So thanks very much for joining us. Have a great rest of summer, folks.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally – Investor Relations Ralph Izzo – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Cregg – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Neel Mitra – Tudor, Pickering Paul Patterson – Glenrock Associates Michael Weinstein – UBS Travis Miller – Morningstar Greg Gordon – Evercore ISI Jonathan Arnold – Deutsche Bank Gregg Orrill – Barclays Michael Lapides – Goldman Sachs Praful Mehta – Citigroup Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management Shahr Pourreza – Guggenheim Partners Michael Goldenberg – Luminous Ben Budish – Jefferies
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I’m your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today’s conference, Public Service Enterprise Group’s First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, April 29, 2016, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2 O’clock PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM Eastern on May 6, 2016. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG’s corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Brent. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in PSEG’s call this morning. As you are aware, we released our first quarter 2016 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachment are posted on our website at www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-K for the period ended March 31, 2016, is expected to be filed shortly. Please read the full disclaimer statement and the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results. As you know the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today’s call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties, and although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change, unless of course we’re required do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings as well as adjusted EBITDA for PSEG Power. Please refer to today’s 8-K for our other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause results to differ from management’s projections, forecast and expectations and for a reconciliation of operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group and joining Ralph on the call is Dan Cregg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen, and good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today. PSEG delivered solid results for the first quarter in the face of rather mild winter temperatures and low prices for natural gas and energy. Earlier this morning, we’ve reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2016 of $0.91 per share versus operating earnings of $1.04 per share in last year’s first quarter. Extreme temperature differences between the first quarter of this year and the first quarter of last year provides the backdrop for this quarter’s operating results. The first quarter of 2016 was 10% warmer than normal and the fifth warmest on record. The month of March in particular was extremely mild with heating degree days 25% lower than normal. Weather for the first quarter was also 27% warmer than the first quarter of 2015, but last year was the coldest on record. Our results were strong in the face of this headwind. PSE&G’s execution on its expanded capital investment program continues to provide a growing source of earnings. PSE&G is expected to invest $3 billion in 2016 as part of its five-year $12 billion capital program. Transmission is the largest part of PSE&G’s effort, representing 60% of planned spending. PSE&G’s investment program and a continued focus on controlling costs will help drive our forecast for double-digit growth in PSE&G’s 2016 operating earnings. PSE&G’s execution of our capital program is expected to yield best-in-class growth rate in rate base of 8% per year for the five-year period ending 2020. PSEG’s continues to develop a pipeline of investment opportunities that also meet New Jersey’s policy objectives and have customer support. Now as for PSEG Power, it has been focused on operating in an environment of low gas prices for years. The availability and low price of gas and the need to meet more stringent reliability requirements has added new urgency to the company’s efforts to improve its cost structure and efficiency. Power’s capital program also represents an important response to today’s market. Power’s $2 billion of investment in three new combined cycle gas turbine will add approximately 1,800 megawatts of clean, reliable and efficient capacity to its fleet. Construction of the KEC plant in Maryland and the Sewaren Unit in New Jersey are on schedule to meet their 2018 operating date. Bridgeport Harbor is expected to be available for 2019 commercial operation date. The addition of this new capacity will transform Power’s fleet. Power’s base load nuclear capacity will be complemented by a flexible low cost fleet of combined cycle gas units capable of responding to the market. The fleet’s carbon footprint is also expected to decline with the addition of the new clean gas fired capacity as nuclear generation continues to represent approximately 50% of the fleet’s output. As I said, we remain focused on operating efficiently and safely. PSEG Power has made judicious reductions in its nuclear workforce and is working closely with the industry to identify additional means of reducing its cost structure to assure the availability of this clean nuclear resource well into the future. Our goal is to capture these savings for the year to help offset the impact of low gas prices on earnings. Separately from operations, we were very pleased with some recent actions in defense of competitive markets. In particular, we were delighted with the U.S. Supreme Court’s unanimous decision affirming the Fourth Circuit decision in Hughes versus Maryland. Since that decision the U.S. Supreme Court also dismissed the New Jersey case allowing to stand the lower court ruling that the so called LCAP contracts are unconstitutional. A recent action at FERC is also constructive. I am referring to the orders issues by FERC earlier this week, granting the complaints filed by EPSA and others, which called into question some approvals, granted by the Public Utility Commission of Ohio. A separate complaint brought by a number of generating companies regarding the scope of the minimum offer price rule under RPM is till pending at FERC. While owners of existing assets without of market contracts will not be directly restricted in the upcoming base residual auction regarding how they can bid the affected units. The lack of certainty regarding FERC approval of such contracts should at least neutralize some if not all of the incentives under the contracts to bid without regard to the unit’s actual cost of operations. We believe that a competitive market is the best approach for ensuring that there is a supply of electric capacity to meet customer demand at the lowest cost. Our companywide efforts are focused on building an infrastructure that improves system reliability, reduces emissions and supports the needs of customers. Our strategy is working and it is made possible by the contribution from our dedicated employees, who support our efforts in countless ways. Their focus on the mission of providing safe and reliable energy has allowed us to meet the needs of customers and shareholders. We are maintaining our operating earnings guidance for the full year of $2.80 to $3 per share. Our guidance assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year. As we move forward, the weather and market conditions during the third quarter will be important for both PSEG Power and PSE&G. Current market conditions and the complete absence of a winter require that we maintain our relentless focus on identifying cost efficiencies and maintaining strong operating performance. With that I’ll turn the call over to Dan, who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Dan Cregg:
Thanks you, Ralph, and good morning everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2016 of $0.91 per share versus operating earnings of $1.04 per share in last year’s first quarter. On Side 4 we’ve provided you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to net income for the quarter and we’ve provided you with information on Slide 8 regarding the contribution to operating earnings by business for the quarter. Additionally, Slide 9 contains a waterfall chart that takes you through the net changes quarter-over-quarter and operating earnings by major business. And I’ll now walk through each company in more detail. For PSE&G, shown on slide 11, we reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2016 of $0.52 per share compared with $0.47 per share for the first quarter of 2015. PSE&G’s first quarter results reflect the impact of revenue growth associated with an expansion of its capital investment program, which will more than offset the effect of unfavorable weather conditions on electric and gas demand. Returns on PSE&G’s expanded investment in transmission added $0.04 per share to earnings in the quarter and the first quarter also benefited from the recovery of revenue on PSE&G’s distribution investment under its Energy Strong program. This increase in revenue improved quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by a $0.01 a share As Ralph mentioned, weather in the first quarter was warmer than normal and significantly warmer than conditions experienced last year. The negative impact of the extreme differences in weather on gas demand in revenue quarter-over-quarter was largely offset by the gas weather normalization cost. A decline in our electric sales in revenue however as a result of the extreme differences in weather reduced quarterly earnings comparisons by $0.02 per share. Lower taxes more than offset an increase in O&M expense due to the absence of insurance recovery of storm costs received in the year ago quarter. These items together added $0.02 per share to quarter-over-quarter earnings. Economic indicators continue to improve. Employment in New Jersey has increased for 28 consecutive months as the unemployment rate has declined to 4.3% and the housing market has also experienced an improvement. However, this improvement in economic growth was outweighed during the quarter by a mild weather. The variability in quarterly data for weather normalized electric and gas sales has been high given the extreme weather conditions making it difficult to discern a trend in demand when analyzing just the quarterly data but data for the trailing 12 months indicates weather normalized electric sales were flat for the period ended March of 2016. And in terms of weather normalized gas demand a 0.3% decline in sales in the first quarter was led by 1.5% decline in heating demand from the residential sector which also is influenced by the large weather adjustment quarter-over-quarter. But on a trailing 12-month basis gas sales increased by 1.8% year-over-year. PSE&G capital program remains on schedule and PSE&G invested approximately $725 million in the first quarter as part of its planned $3 billion capital investment for 2016. Also as you may recall PSE&G implemented $146 million increase in annual transmission revenue under the company’s transmission formula rate filing which took effect this past January. This increase in revenue adjusted to reflect the impact of bonus depreciation and updates of spending in prior years will be reflected in PSE&G’s earnings throughout the year. We’re maintaining our forecast of PSE&G’s operating earnings for 2016 of $875 million to $925 million. Moving to Power, as shown on slide 18, PSEG Power reported operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.36 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $416 million compared with $0.55 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $626 million for the first quarter of 2015. Adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our operating earnings measure as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization and major maintenance expense at Towers Fossil generating facilities. The earnings release and slide 19, provides you with a detailed analysis of the impact on Power’s operating earnings quarter-over-quarter. We’ve also provided you with more detail on generation for the quarter on slide 21. PSEG Power’s first quarter results were impacted by the extremely mild weather conditions experienced this year in comparison to the year ago period. A decline in capacity revenue associated with the June 2015 retirement of the HEDD or High Electric Demand Date peaking units in PJM reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.04 per share. Lower output due to the mild weather conditions coupled with lower average prices on energy hedges reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.09 per share. And a weather related decline in total gas send out to commercial and industrial customers and lower prices combined to reduce quarter-over-quarter earnings on gas sales by $0.12 per share. Lower O&M expense improved quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.05 per share and a reduction in interest expense added $0.01 to earnings per share. Now let’s turn to Power’s operations. Output from Power’s fleet declined 9% in the quarter as a result of the reduced demand and lower wholesale market prices. Output from the coal fleet reduced during the first quarter a decline of 1 terawatt hour from 2.5 terawatt hours in the year ago quarter as low gas prices affected the dispatch of coal. Output from the combined cycle fleet declined 0.2 terawatt hours to 3.7 terawatt hours with the decline in demand. The nuclear fleet however experienced a 0.6 terawatt hour improvement in output to 8.4 terawatt hours for the quarter. The fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 99.7% in the quarter and the nuclear fleets performance benefited from an improvement in availability at Salem as well as an increasing capacity at Peach Bottom. You may recall that the extended power upgrade work was completed at Peach Bottom last year and this work added 130 megawatts to our share of the station’s capacity. Power’s gas fired combined cycle fleet has access to low cost gas which continues to provide it with an advantage relative to market prices. However, the lack of demand and a lack of volatility in the market given the mild weather in an excess supply of gas pressured spot spreads which were significantly lower compared to last year’s levels. Overall Power’s gross margin declined to $43.80 per megawatt hour from $47.32 in the year ago quarter. Power is revising its forecast of output for 2016 to 52 terawatt hours to 54 terawatt hours from its prior forecast of 54 to 56 terawatt hour. The updated range for output incorporates the impact of the abnormally warm weather in the first quarter. This range also incorporates an anticipated expansion of the Salem 1 refuelling outage. A visual inspection during the current refuelling at Salem 1 which began on April 14 revealed damage to a series of bulbs located inside the reactor vessel. The need to conduct further testing to repair and replace the bulbs is expected to expand the refuelling outage. To provide some context as a rule of thumb, a delay in Salem’s refuelling outage of 30 days would reduce generation by approximately 0.5 terawatt hour. And under this scenario nuclear fleets’ capacity factor for the year would be reduced by about 1.5% to 91% from the current forecasted capacity factor of 92.5% for the year and the actual outage duration will be determined after ongoing inspection work is completed. As shown on slide 24 approximately 70% to 75% of anticipated production for the April to December period of 40 terawatt hours is hedged at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. Our open position for the reminder of 2016 is more than adequate to cover the potential for a decline in output at Salem from our original forecast. For 2017, Power’s hedged 50% to 55% of its forecast generation of 54 terawatt hours to 56 terawatt hours at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. And for 2018, approximately 20% to 25% for the forecast generation of 59 terawatt hours to 61 terawatt hours is hedged at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. The forecast increase in generation in 2018 reflects the commercial operation of the Keys and Sewaren combined cycle units. The hedge data for 2016 continues to assume PSEG’ hedges representing 11 terawatt hours to 12 terawatt hours. As we mentioned to your last quarter, there are items included in our average hedged price which influence Power’s revenue but not support Power’s gross margin. Our average hedge price for the remainder of 2016 reflects an increase in cost elements such as transmission and renewables associated with serving our full requirement hedge obligations. The increase year-over-year in these non-margin revenue items is approximately 1 megawatt hours to 2 megawatt hours. We continue to forecast operating earnings for Power in 2016, of $490 million to $540 million and the forecast for operating earnings represents adjusted EBITDA of $1.320 billion to $1.4 billion for the full year which compares to $1.563 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2015. I’ll briefly address as well enterprise and others’ operating results and for the first quarter we reported operating earnings of $0.03 per share compared with operating earnings of $0.02 per share recorded last year in the first quarter. The increase in operating earnings quarter-over-quarter reflects contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island and certain tax items that PSEG Energy Holdings and we continue to forecast full year operating earnings for 2016 from PSEG, Enterprise and Other of $60 million. And finally with respect to financings and other, PSEG closed the quarter with $592 million of cash on the balance sheet with debt at the end of March representing 44% of our consolidated capital. During the quarter, PSE&G issued $850 million of securities consisting of $300 million of five-year notes at 1.9% and $550 million of 30-year notes at 3.8% while redeeming a $171 million of long-term debt. And we remain in a position to finance our current capital program without the need for the issuance of equity. We continue to forecast operating earnings for the full year of $2.80 to $3 per share. That concludes my comments and I will now turn the call back over to the operator for your questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for the members of the financial community [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Tudor, Pickering. Please go ahead.
Neel Mitra:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Neel.
Neel Mitra:
I just had a quick question on the lower generation in the first quarter from the milder weather, is that actually a net negative or a positive because you could not wanted to lead and then procure the power at a lower cost to fulfill the financial hedges?
Ralph Izzo:
So the hedges are supplied at a lower cost even though we’ve locked in the price, so that’s good news. But as you know, we’re naturally long, so whenever demand is down that creates a drag for Power, is a more modest drag on the utility, it has a whether normalization on the gas business, but no such thing on the electric business. So reduced demanded due to mild whether would create a slight drag there.
Neel Mitra:
So the opened position on Power is hurt just because it’s not running as much is that the way to look at that?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. That’s right. So you have lower dispatch prices, we have lower, lesser amount of run time.
Neel Mitra:
Okay. And second question, I know you have a small stake in the PennEast Pipeline. Can you remind us when you have that going into service and then there have been recent reports on possible delay, what your thoughts are on that?
Ralph Izzo:
So we have 10% position and we are now forecasting late 2018.
Neel Mitra:
And what were you forecasting earlier?
Ralph Izzo:
Late 2017.
Neel Mitra:
Okay, great. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
You’re welcome, Neel.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead.
Paul Patterson:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson:
On the Salem implant and I apologize I heard you talk about, but I just want to make sure I understood it. How long is the extended outage that you guys are now expecting?
Ralph Izzo:
So we don’t know yet Paul. The outage started I think it was April 14 and that would have been a fairly standard refuelling outage. We normally don’t give dates on that for obvious reasons due to market sensitivity. But we are in the middle right now of doing some testing to see how many of the bolts are damaged. And so until we finish that we won’t know exact how long the outage is, but I should point out even when we know we typically don’t announce that to the marketplace.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then with – and you are still looking at how many bolts or what percentage of bolts have problems.
Ralph Izzo:
That’s right.
Paul Patterson:
And is there any read through to any other units do you think or any other sort of sense for about this?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean so clearly Salem 2, but we did inspect Salem 2 in 2015, because I mean this is an industry, problem it’s been around since I think 1998, so this is not something that is unique to us or unheard of before. But if Salem 2 pass visual inspection in 2015 and Salem 1 was scheduled to have the more intrusive inspection in 2019, but we’re couple of years ahead of schedule there. I just remind you Salem 2 is six years younger than Salem 1 to the extent that this is a degradation over time that should have an influence.
Paul Patterson:
Okay, thanks so much.
Ralph Izzo:
No problem, Paul.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Weinstein with UBS. Please go ahead.
Michael Weinstein:
Hi, Ralph, how are you doing?
Ralph Izzo:
Good.
Michael Weinstein:
Hey, recently we saw ConEd enter agreement to purchase gas storage and pipeline assets in Pennsylvania and New York and we’ve also seen other large utilities making large acquisitions of gas assets and utilities. And given the PennEast interest that you have already what is your view on the current market for gas related acquisitions and what’s your own interest in expanding further?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I would say that our interest in expanding further is low to zero. In terms of our position in PennEast, high candidly every gas LDC in New Jersey has a position in that and we just thought that it was important to help participate and bringing those consumer benefits to our gas customers as you know PSE&G has almost two million gas customers. It’s a really different business, Michael. I serve on a board of the company that’s involved in the pipeline business and I just think we’re really good at the netting that we do and I would like to stick to that. So, I’m not second guessing others, please don’t misinterpret. I mean they have their own unique reasons for moving in that direction. But typically the corporate structure is different there, mostly MLPs, they have a fairly different financial proposition and they are not without their challenges nowadays as well. So that may be a great time to go in to buy in. There is a graph of those citing challenges associated with this, we are experiencing that in PennEast. That was a major pipeline. And I am sure you are aware of in New York state obviously had an unpleasant surprise. So it’s a very challenging business with fairly different DNA than what we have in our company and I like the DNA and the match that our company has with the operations that we are responsible for.
Michael Weinstein:
Does the current PE’s and the gas utility space on the LDC space, does that also put you off in terms of future opportunities?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So that’s a different subject, but the short answer to that is yes. I mean, I understand that debt is fairly inexpensive. Dan, hopefully impressed you with the numbers he reported for our utility. And you can make acquisitions accretive at very, very attractive premiums to the target. But the question really is that obvious just because money is relatively inexpensive what are the alternative uses for that and simply paying a very, very rich premium and still having accretion may not be your best choice and we’ve been very clear. Our priorities are number one organic growth and number two supporting the dividend and then number three will be share repurchase. As I have said to many people paying a 20 plus PE to someone seems to me to be a bad idea when I know a great company that’s treating at a 14 or 15 PE that has the ticker symbol PEG. So again hopefully [indiscernible] because it’s the second guessing critical above the decisions, but those are the ones I am comfortable for us.
Michael Weinstein:
Okay. One last question, in terms of the partnership with Vectren for competitive transmission in MISO, do you see any other opportunities to part with other local utilities for similar type of partnerships?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. So I can’t disclose any of that we haven’t public disclosed. But there is an approach that we are eager to pursue. I think that there is lot of value to be had by combining forces with someone who understands the local transmission grid and system with our expertise now having put over $2 billion to work on annual basis for good number of years in terms of cost and schedule management on transmission construction. I am very proud of our team and the work that they have done, but we don’t know the system everywhere in the country, such to the extent that we combine our project management as skills in our construction management know how with people systems knowledge that’s a win-win for everyone.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Travis Miller:
Hi, thanks.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller:
I wanted to think a little bit more about the $0.12 on the lower gas send out and fixed cost recovery business. How much is that just pure volume and how much is there something else there, either margin contractions there or some other factor there that might not be directly weather related?
Ralph Izzo:
I ask Dan if he knows the split between the two. I mean, my short answer is it’s a combination of both.
Dan Creeg:
And that’s right. I mean, Travis, I guess the way that may be the best way to try to think about where we are from that $0.12 impact that we saw this quarter is if you were to look at each of the last couple of quarters, you would have seen last year and the year before, there was a $0.05 and a $0.04 benefit that we picked up additively over the last two quarters. So, it’s very much the absence of a winter which has impact both on pricing and on volumes. I think the volumes were down about a third and when you have that impact as well as a margin compression. We really also didn’t see much volatility which doesn’t help in that market. So they all were contributions to the delta that you saw for this quarter.
Travis Miller:
Okay, great, that’s helpful. And then Ralph without too much a dissertation here, you guys have put a lot of eggs in the transmission baskets certainly, previously and for the next three to five years. What are your thoughts on storage and how that might disrupt the transmission plans or alternatively offer you guys investment opportunities that wouldn’t be in transmission but could be in storage?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, I am a still sort of smarting from your suggestions that I am a bit long way [indiscernible].
Travis Miller:
I am interested in the dissertation, just not this morning.
Ralph Izzo:
[Indiscernible] There is a lot we’re having. I literally just came for a presentation two weeks ago by a director of Lawrence Berkeley Labs on storage. And his claim, don’t ask me his name because I don’t remember but he is easy to look up, is that at least factor of too away from grid connected storage that makes the economic sense and what he has found is that that translates into anywhere from a 10-year to 20-year timeframe. Of course when you are talking about material science research event it’s difficult to put up with precision but we are agnostic Travis about what hardware one puts in place to serve customers. So I don’t care if its copper wires, super conducting ceramic wire, lead acid batteries, lithium batteries, slow batteries, I am running out of technologies to stop lathering and I am starting to tread on dissertation time frames but we were more than happy to pursue things that have economic merits that provides the reliability our customers are demanding.
Travis Miller:
Okay, good question our this [ph] version.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks.
Travis Miller:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Gordon with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Greg Gordon:
Thanks, my questions have been asked and answered, thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Greg.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Thanks same here. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Gregg Orrill:
Yes thank you. Just around the hedges at Power, you increased some of the hedges over the last quarter and just wondering where you stand with where you would normally be at this point. How you are thinking about that?
Ralph Izzo:
So Gregg as you know we try not to outguess the forward market. We do, however, we’ve said in the past there was a tendency of the market to take a data point from 48 hours ago and a data point from 24 hours go and extrapolate it for the next three years and sometimes that emotional responses not as formed by fundamentals as we would like but we always stay with some certain guidelines. We allow our team to drift up little bit if we think the market is begin a bit bullish and we allow them to drift down if we think the market is begin overly bearish and you will recall in April 14 was the former where you said we can go ahead and hedge a little bit towards the upside since the market is being somewhat bullish and it’s pretty safe to conclude that right now we are drifting towards the bottom of our guide post just given the anomalously one winter we had and the bearish that crept into the market. Now having said that that bearing this is not, totally unjustified given the guess those levels are. And then just the other thing to think about too Gregg is that for the BGS auction to the extent that that’s a contribution across our hedge horizon. That auction usually takes place every year in February. So, you see a little bit of a pickup in that regard in the first quarter’s change.
Gregg Orrill:
Fair point, okay, thanks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, Ralph thanks for taking my question and congrats on a good start to the year. Can you on the Salem issue, can you talk a little bit about other plants over the years kind of seen similar issues and whether any of those turned into any more major related items or is having issues with kind of baffle bolts are very standard, very common occurrence. I have to be very honest as a non-nuclear engineer that where baffle bolts is a little baffling to me?
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Michael for the question. I’m glad you asked this. So, to my knowledge DC Cook had an issue in 2010, Indian Point had an issue starting a month or so ago. There have been a handful, I think like six or eight European plants. These are not to my knowledge, these are not life threatening issues, they’re literally 800 bolts typically that secure these metal plates we call them baffles to the reactor vessel and they’re under pressure. There is a pressure grade in because of the hot high temperatures steam that flows through the holes of these baffles and you just get a mechanical stress, in our case I think we have 832 bolts. They are typical of pressurized water reactors, so that’s why I mentioned earlier it’s a false question that we would have to look at Salem 2 again it is extra refueling outage although it passed visual inspection in 2015. It would be an issue for Hope Creek because that’s a boiling water reactor. So, I don’t want to suggest anything other than we have to complete the inspection but none of the prior instances has this been an issue that has threatened the plants going forward integrity or anything of that nature.
Michael Lapides:
Got it, and coming to your regulated side of the ENG, you know as you guys do most years at your Analyst Day, you lay out a CapEx forecast that obviously shows you know in year three through five somewhat of a decline from years one through two, can you talk about the things, your goals in 2016 in terms of actually, I don’t want to call it back filling but the types of projects that you could see showing up in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe that might keep CapEx at a more similar level to 16 and 17 or even at a higher level, what are the types of projects what you have to do from the regulatory construct process to get those approved?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, so there is a whole host to that Michael; there is ongoing renewable portfolio standard commitments that could result in some additional solar work. There are couple of special projects that we haven’t named publically on the distribution system that involve major customers that would benefit the entire customer base that we will be pursuing. There is always new and additional work that comes out of it PJM, RTEP [ph] and that’s the kind of stuff you will see us looking at and potentially announcing in 2016. However, the major backfill in the out years of the plan won’t be announced in 2016 because they are pretty new and that will be continuation of our gas system monetization plan and a continuation of Energy Strong. And reason why we won’t announce those in 2016 is because we are only a year and half since Energy Strong and we are only six months into GSMP and those were both three-year programs give or take a few months on some unique aspects. So you’re right to say that we have historically backfilled the years four and five. I think there is a very high probability we’ll do the same this time. But I think that’s in terms of the goals for 2016, it will be more some significant distribution projects that we have and potentially some solar work that to keep the state on its RPS targets, you’ll see as a percent in the near-term.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thank you Ralph. Much appreciated.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Praful Mehta:
Thanks you. Hi, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Praful.
Praful Mehta:
So quickly on the storage point, I know it was an interesting debate and you’ve made a bunch of relevant points, so that was very thoughtful. I’m just wanted to understand you were mentioning storage more from a transmission perspective. But just take it back to storage more from a generation perspective. If you did have the 10 to 20 year window horizon as you talked about, how would you think of the implications for your gas lead and just generally for the markets in general? If you did think storage was coming, whenever, 10 years or 20 years down the road, how do you see the implications for the power generation for your fleet and just generally in the U.S.?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. I think there are three uses for storage. One is to the extent that one has some localized distribution reinforcement that can be more economically achieved for the storage rather than fluctuation enhancement. Second would be your classic arbitrage between peak and off-peak, however which has become less of an economic driver now days just given the abundance of natural gas. Third could be sort of a similarity that which is to offset the intermittency associated with renewables, but in terms of using batteries as speakers I mean I think that you just have to take a look again it’s a dollar per KW and my goodness yes I’m – keeping getting more and more efficient and storage seems to be losing in that race so its to keep up with them. So I think there are multiple applications I didn’t mean to suggest that we would only consider one what I was trying to point out is whether the application is a supply side or whether it’s a customer reliability side, whether its providing peaking services, other ancillary services. We don’t have a religious fervor around one technology or another we look at them all the time.
Praful Mehta:
Fair enough that’s really helpful. And then secondly from a M&A perspective there is number of generation assets clearly in the market and potentially more coming and you’ve talked about at some point of separation as well. So how do you fit all that in are you looking to get to critical mark is there opportunity here to apply some asset critical mark there you think you can at some point separate how are you thinking about that opportunity right now?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes I mean that’s pretty much what we’ve told the world right that we see three very changeable tactical reasons for remaining integrated its the financial synergies between powers, our cash generation and utilities cash needs. It’s the customer build synergies between the customer Power serves and the customers that PSEG’s serve and power prices were down PSEG’s distribution rates go up quite candidly. And the last but not least is the benefit of scale associated with the corporate support functions and as Power continues to pursue growth opportunities outside PJMEs the first two issues become less important right. You have more customers that are not PSE&G customers that we will be serving in the New England and the New York State. You have more need for Power’s funds from operations going to Power as opposed to going over to the utility and as both companies get bigger then the corporate supports synergies become less on a percentage basis. As the reason why I say outside of PJMEs is because we’re pretty much preemptive from making any acquisitions within PJMEs and given the slow growth in demand, we’re not big fans of Greenfield development in PJMEs it’s just you quickly run into an oversupply situation. Having said all of that, we have demonstrated that we’re pretty bad at acquiring assets. By that I mean we seem to have a more conservative view of where the market is going and are consistently outbid, Keys being the one exception to that which I believe was largely because of our confidence in our ability to manage construction risk that perhaps others did not posses and also some of the portfolio benefit going to us in terms of PJM West. So, we all the time at generation assets, we have an, I was not saying anti coal bias, that sounds very political and I didn’t mean it that way. But just given the direction of environmental regulation, you wouldn’t see us taking a look at any co expansions in terms of new assets. But we do look in our target markets which would be the rest of PJM, New England and New York State. We just have to get it at the right price and we’re going to remain disciplined in what that means for us.
Praful Mehta:
Got it. That’s very helpful, Ralph, thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Ashar Khan:
Good morning and good results. Can you just ask you one thing which [indiscernible] mentioned why their outage is lasting a little bit longer, is that they didn’t have the equipment on site and I didn’t know what that meant exactly, but I just wanted to ask you Ralph, are you guys do you have this stuff on site to replace everything so it won’t cause a longer outage?
Ralph Izzo:
No it was so – hi Ashar. So the equipment is not routinely onsite, but we are in the process right now of securing that equipment while we do the ultrasonic testing. This is a highly radiated area. It’s inside the reactor vessel, but we are in conversations with at least two vendors who claim to be able to help us do the work and we’re confident we will be able to bring them on site. I mean this is – as I said there is at least 10 other reactors that had this issue in the past and.
Ashar Khan:
No, I understand. And I was just trying to understand whether they were saying the delay was caused by equipment not begin on site?
Ralph Izzo:
I think there is a robotic device that needs to go in and change out the bolts and replace those that fail the ultrasonic test. It’s not something you could send a person into the vessel.
Ashar Khan:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo:
From a clinical path perspective to the inspections that are ongoing now need to take place first so we have sometime of a critical task to be able to secure that kind of equipment.
Ashar Khan:
Equipment, okay I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Shahr Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Please go ahead.
Shahr Pourreza:
Hi, questions were answered thanks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Goldenberg with Luminous. Please go ahead.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Mike.
Michael Goldenberg:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning.
Michael Goldenberg:
Hi just wanted to ask a question about your 2018 hedging. I wasn’t clear. If I just look at previous quarters and this quarter it seems like you hedge very little about 5% of your output, but if I did the math I get about $30 or $31 incremental hedging price. I’m not understanding if that’s the price or I’m doing something wrong there.
Ralph Izzo:
And your comparison is what Michael.
Michael Goldenberg:
Versus Q4, so in Q4 you were same percentage at $54 now you’re same percentage $49 so if I just do the simple math I get incremental hedging down at $31?
Ralph Izzo:
We will have to go through the individual math which maybe we could follow up with you on but you also got a range of output where you’re within a higher low band. So, its going to vary, I know that some of that 2018 output is going to come from BGS which tends to have a higher price and then we run lower price environment as well, so it’s going to be some mix of that.
Michael Goldenberg:
Got it. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] . Your next question comes from the line of Ben Budish with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Ben Budish:
Hey, everybody good morning. Just I wondering if I’m maybe reading into your comments you made at the beginning of the call too much about kind of the importance of Q3, it seems like maybe you’re sort of guiding us to the low end of the range and I’m curious like strong Q3 might get us back to the midpoint or maybe we’re looking at sort of below the bottom end and a strong Q3 gets us back within, is there anymore color you can kind of give on that?
Dan Creeg:
Yes so Ben, the range is the range and historically what we do is after Q1 we really don’t modify our numbers or push people up or down and just live with range. After Q2 sometimes we may move a nickel one way or another if we think that there is a definitive bias one way or another in terms of verbally guiding and then typically after Q3 is when we – if there is a need tighten the range one way or another. So we’re $2.80 to $3 it was a tough winter and we’ve got a lot of focus on our operations and cost efficiencies and the range always assumes that the rest of year is normal weather. We never assume that the weather is going to suddenly do something different than what the weather service predicts as anomaly.
Ben Budish:
Okay great thank you.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo and Mr. Cregg there no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or any closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Sure thank you Brent. So thanks everyone for being on the call and the main message I hope you took away is my favorite message which is steady she goes. We have utility capital program that’s proceeding as planned, Power construction program with three combined cycle units is on schedule and on budget, our operations are strong throughout the enterprise and the balance sheet is as solid as ever. I know Kathleen and Dan have some travels coming in the next couple weeks and then the three of us have some travels coming up in the next couple of months. So hopefully we will get to you see you most if not all of you during those travels. Thanks a lot and we will talk soon.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - IR Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President and CEO Dan Creeg - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Jonathan Arnold - Deutsche Bank Keith Stanley - Wolfe Research Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Praful Mehta - Citigroup Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Gregg Orrill - Barclays Travis Miller - Morningstar Stephen Byrd - Morgan Stanley
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group’s Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, February 19, 2016, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2 o’ clock PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM Eastern on February 26, 2016. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Brent. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our earnings call this morning. As you are aware, we released fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings results earlier this morning. The release and attachments, as mentioned, are posted on our website, www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2015, is expected to be filed shortly. I won’t go through the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but I do ask that you all read those comments, contained in our slides and on our website. The disclaimer statement regards forward-looking statements detailing the number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made therein. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimates change, unless of course required by applicable securities laws. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between operating earnings and net income reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measure of operating earnings provides a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand trends. I’m now going to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group and joining Ralph on the call is Dan Creeg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Given the interest in the call, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen and thanks everyone for joining us today. This morning, we reported operating earnings for the full year 2015 and I’m pleased to report that it was a year of significant accomplishments. As you saw this morning, we reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.50 per share, versus $0.49 per share earned in the fourth quarter of 2014, despite the unseasonably mild weather this past December. Results for the full year were $2.91 per share or 5% greater than 2014’s operating earnings of $2.76 per share. This was at the upper half of our guidance of $2.85 to $2.95 per share and it was also higher than the midpoint of our original guidance of $2.85 per share. Our results reflect the benefits of excellent performance and robust organic growth, which offset the impact of low energy prices on earnings. We’ve continued to successfully deploy our strong free cash flow into customer oriented investment programs that have supported growth. 2015’s operating earnings represented a third year of growth in earnings. Now, let me just mention a few of the year’s highlights. PSE&G was named Electric Light & Power’s Utility of the Year and was named the most reliable utility in the mid-Atlantic for the 14th consecutive year. But we’re not resting on those laurels. PSE&G invested approximately $2.7 billion during 2015 on programs to further enhance the system’s resiliency and its reliability. During the year, PSE&G placed into service key backbone transmission lines, such as the Susquehanna-Roseland line as well as the Mickleton-Gloucester-Camden line, which are designed to meet the needs of customers today and well into the future. PSE&G invested over $550 million on programs under its $1.2 billion Energy Strong initiative. These programs are designed to strengthen and protect the electric and gas distribution system from the impacts of extreme weather. During the year, PSE&G also received approval from the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to invest an additional $95 million in its award winning energy efficiency programs and to continue the work begun under Energy Strong, replacing aging cast iron natural gas pipes. The $905 million gas system modernization program represents the 14th multi-year investment program approved by the BPU since PSE&G’s last base rate case and this speaks to the state’s support of infrastructure investment that meets the needs of customers. PSE&G’s investment program, supportive revenue recovery mechanisms and tight control of O&M expenses have provided growth in PSE&G’s operating earnings of approximately 13% per year for the five year period ended 2015. During this period, PSE&G’s rate base expanded at a rate of 11% per year and importantly, we’ve been able to support this growth as customer builds have declined. But 2015 was not just a year of PSE&G accomplishments. PSEG Power’s strong operating performance supported earnings in line with guidance for the full year, despite very difficult market conditions. The nuclear fleet operated at a capacity factor of greater than 90% for the year and accounted for 54% of the fleet’s output. Power’s gas fired combustion turbine fleet set a new record for output. This improves on the prior record established in 2014. The fleet’s performance is benefiting from investments that have improved its efficiency, increased its capacity and provided greater access to low cost gas supply. The flexibility and diversity of Power’s fleet have allowed us to provide approximately $500 million of positive free cash flow in 2015, even during soft energy market conditions. Power also plans to invest $2 billion over the next 3 to 4 years to add approximately 1,800 megawatts of new, efficient combined cycle gas fired turbine capacity. The Keys Energy station which is located in Southwestern MAAC will extend Power’s footprint in this core PJM market, a new efficient unit at the Sewaren station in New Jersey will replace old, inefficient steam capacity. And after clearing the most recent capacity auction in New England, Power will construct a new 485 megawatt combined cycle unit at its existing Bridgeport Harbor station site, giving us an enviable and growing position in both energy and capacity markets in Southwestern Connecticut. The addition of these units will transform Power’s generation mix as its ownership of efficient reliable gas-fired capacity will grow to exceed 5,000 megawatts in 2019. At that time, the combined cycle gas turbine fleet will surpass the size of Power’s ownership in nuclear capacity and secure Power’s position as a low cost generator with modern, flexible, clean assets that remain capable of meeting the demands for reliability in today’s markets. Power also grew its investment in contracted solar energy. In 2015, Power added two projects representing an investment of approximately $75 million in utility scale grid connected solar energy. And earlier this year, Power announced that it will invest an additional $150 million in three projects that bring its portfolio of solar projects to 240 megawatts DC of clean renewable energy. All projects in this portfolio are under long-term contracts with credit worthy customers. So as you can see, we continue to explore opportunities to expand and optimize Power’s fleet, although I will add that we do not see any new generation build in the foreseeable future, although you never say never, but we don’t plan any at this point in time. Our balance sheet continues to provide us with a competitive advantage to finance our capital programs without the need to access the equity markets. We ended 2015 with strong credit metrics and the extension of bonus depreciation through 2019 is expected to provide enterprise with an additional $1.7 billion of cash during this period. Our investment program calls for a 21% increase in capital spending to $11.5 billion for the three years ended 2018 from capital invested during the three year period ended 2015. Approximately 72% of that amount or 8.3 billion over this timeframe will be invested by PSE&G on transmission and distribution infrastructure programs that customers will require for reliability. This level of investment is expected to yield growth in PSE&G’s rate base for the three years ended 2018 of 10% per year, even after taking into account the impact of bonus depreciation on rate base. The remaining approximate 27% or $3.2 billion of expected capital investments will be made at Power. The majority of Power’s investments will be devoted to expanding its position in new, efficient, clean gas-fired generating capacity as I mentioned already, all of which, Keys, Sewaren and Bridgeport Harbor are expected to exceed our long standing and unchanged financial returns expectations. With our strong balance sheet, we remain in a position to increase our capital investment across the company. We have a robust pipeline of opportunities and plan on providing you with an update of our 5-year outlook for capital spending at our annual financial conference on March 11. In total, the investment programs at PSE&G and Power are focused on meeting customer needs and market requirements, with an energy platform that is reliable, efficient and clean. The strategy we implemented has yielded growth for our shareholders as we have met the needs of our customers. The continued successful deployment of strong free cash flow into customer oriented regulated investment programs is expected to support 14% growth in utility’s earnings to 60% of enterprise’s 2016 operating earnings as the results for the full year are forecast at $2.80 to $3 per share. Our guidance for 2016 takes into account the impact on demand from the continuation of unseasonably mild weather conditions in January and early February. The Board of Directors’ recent decision to increase the common dividend by 5.1% to the indicative annual level of $1.64 per share is an expression of our confidence in our outlook, the continued growth of our regulated business and an acknowledgement of our strong financial position. We see the potential for consistent and sustainable growth from the dividend as an important means of returning cash to our shareholders. Of course, none of our success would be possible without the contribution made by PSEG’s dedicated workforce. I look forward to discussing our investment outlook in greater detail with you at our March 11 annual financial conference. But for now, I’ll turn the call over to Dan for more details on our operating results and we’ll be available to answer your questions after his remarks.
Dan Creeg:
Thank you, Ralph and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.50 per share versus $0.49 per share for the fourth quarter of 2014. Our earnings in the quarter brought operating earnings for the full year to $2.91 per share or 5.4% greater than 2014’s operating earnings of $2.76 per share and at the upper half of our guidance of $2.85 to $2.95 per share. And on slide 4, we provide you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to net income for the quarter. We’ve also provided you with information on slide 10 regarding the contribution to operating earnings by business for the quarter and slides 11 and 13 contain waterfall charts that take you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes in operating earnings by major business and I’ll review each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2015 of $0.31 per share compared to $0.32 per share for the fourth quarter of 2014 and that’s shown on slide 15. PSE&G’s full year 2015 operating earnings were $787 million or $1.55 per share compared with operating earnings of $725 million or $1.43 per share for 2014, reflecting a growth of 8.6%. PSE&G’s earnings for the fourth quarter benefited from a return on its expanded capital program, which partially offset the impact of earnings from unseasonably mild weather conditions and an increase in operating expenses. PSE&G’s return on an expanded investment and transmission and distribution programs increased quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. Mild weather conditions relative to normal and relative to last year reduced electric sales and lowered earnings comparisons by a penny per share. Recovery of gas revenue under the weather normalization clause offset the impact on earnings of the abnormally warm weather on sales of gas. And higher expenses including pension and other items reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.03 per share. Economic conditions in the service area continued to improve. On a weather normalized basis, gas deliveries are estimated to have increased 2.1% in the quarter and 2.2% for the year. Demand continues to benefit from an improving economy and also from the impact of lower commodity prices on customer’s bills. Electric sales on a weather normalized basis are estimated to have increased by 0.8% and 0.5% for the fourth quarter and for the year respectively. The estimated year-over-year growth on electric sales is more representative of our long term expectations for growth. PSE&G implemented a $146 million increase in transmission revenue, under the company’s transmission formula rate for 2016 on January 1. PSE&G’s investment in transmission grew to $5.7 billion at the end of 2015 or 43% of the company's consolidated rate base of $13.4 billion at year end. As you know, transmission revenues are adjusted each year to reflect an update of data that was estimated in the transmission formula rate filing. The adjustment for 2016 which we will file in mid-2017 will include the impact of the extension of bonus depreciation which was executed after our transmission formula rate filing. This adjustment will reduce transmission revenue as filed by about $27 million. But we will accrue that for accounting purposes in anticipation of the reduction in revenue as we report our 2016 results. We are forecasting growth in PSE&G’s operating earnings for 2016 to a range of $875 million to $925 million. And forecast reflects the benefits of continued growth in PSE&G’s rate base and a decline in pension expense. Turning to Power, as shown on slide 19, Power reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.19 per share compared to $0.18 per share a year ago. Results for the quarter brought Power’s full-year operating earnings to $653 million or $1.29 per share compared to 2014’s operating earnings of $642 million or $1.27 per share. Power’s adjusted EBITDA for the quarter in the year amounted to $235 million and $1.563 million, respectively, which compares to adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2014 of $271 million and adjusted EBITDA for the full year of 2014 of $1.588 million. The earnings release as well as the earnings slides on pages 11 and 13 provide you with a detailed analysis of the impact on Power’s operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and cost and we have also provided more detail on generation for the quarter and for the year on slides 21 and 22. Power’s operating earnings in the fourth quarter reflect the impact of strong hedging and tight control on operating expenses which offset an anticipated decline in capacity revenue and the impact of unseasonably warm weather on wholesale energy prices. The decline in capacity revenues associated with the May 2015 retirement of High Electric Demand Day or HEDD peaking capacity in PJM reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.04 per share. An increase in the average price received on energy hedges coupled with the decline in fuel costs more than offset the impact on earnings from a reduction in gas sales. And these two items together netted to a quarter-over-quarter improvement in earnings of $0.02 per share. Power’s O&M expense for the quarter was unchanged relative to year ago levels. An increase in depreciation expense and other miscellaneous items was more than offset by the absence of a charge in the year ago quarter resulting in a net improvement in quarterly earnings comparisons of $0.03 per share. Turning to Power’s operations, Power’s outputs during the quarter was in line with the year ago levels. For the year, output increased 2% to 55.2 terawatt hours and the level of production achieved by the fleet in 2015 represented the second highest level of output in the fleet’s history as a merchant generator. Growth was supported by improvements in the fleet’s availability and efficiency. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 90.4% for the year producing 30 terawatt hours or 54% of total generation. Efficient commodity cycle gas turbine capacity was rewarded in the market with an increase in dispatch levels. And Power’s DCG fleet set a generation record during the year at each of the Lyndon Station and Bethlehem Energy Center set individual records. Output from the commodity cycle fleet grew 11% to $18.4 terawatt hours or 33% of total output during the year. Power market demand for our coal units reduced output from those stations to 5.8 terawatt hours in the year or 11% of output. And lastly, the fleet’s peaking capacity produced just under 1 terawatt hours or 2% of output for the year. Power’s gas-fired commodity cycle fleet continuous to benefit from its access to lower priced gas supplies in the Marcellus region and for the year gas from the Marcellus supplied 75% of the fuel requirements for the PJM gas-fired assets. This supply [indiscernible] and implied by market pricing and allowed Power to enjoy fuel cost savings in the fourth quarter similar to the levels that enjoyed in the year-ago quarter despite weak energy prices. And for the full year, Power enjoyed positive spreads relative to the market. The year-over-year realized spot spreads in 2015 were lower than what was realized in 2014 given the decline in energy prices. Overall, Power’s gross margin improved slightly to $38.83 per megawatt hour in fourth quarter versus $37.40 per megawatt hour in year ago and for the year Power’s gross margin amounted to $42.25 per megawatt hour versus the $42.41 per megawatt hour last year. And slide 24 provides detail on Power’s gross margins for the quarter and for the year. Power is expecting output for 2016 to remain unchanged at 54 to 56 terawatt hours. Following the completion of the basic generation service or BGS auction in New Jersey earlier this month, Power has 100% of its 2016 base load generation hedged. Approximately 70% to 75% of Power’s anticipated total production is hedged on an average price of $51 per megawatt hour and Power has hedged approximately 45% to 55% of its forecast generation in 2017 of 54 to 56 terawatt hours at an average price of $50 per megawatt hour. Looking forward to 2018, Power’s forecasting improvement in output to 59 to 61 terawatt hours with the commercial startup in mid-2018 of Keys and Sewaren stations that Ralph mentioned earlier. Approximately 15% to 20% of 2018’s output is hedged at an average price of $54 per megawatt hour and Power assumes BGS volumes will continue to represent approximately 11 to 12 terawatt hours of deliveries and this number is very consistent with the 11.5 terawatt hours of deliveries we saw in 2015 under the BGS contracts. Our average hedge position at this point in time represents a slightly smaller percentage of output hedged versus what you saw a year ago and at that time, Power was able to take advantage of market prices influenced by the colder-than-normal weather conditions of last winter. Average hedge pricing includes the impact of recently concluded DGS auction and the auction for the three-year period beginning in June 1, 2016 ending May 31, 2019 was priced at $96.38 per megawatt hour in the PS zone. This contract for one-third of the load will replace in 2013 contract for $92.18 per megawatt hour which expires on May 31, 2016. And we do remind you from time to time that the items included in the average hedge price which influenced Power’s revenue but don’t support Power’s gross margin. Our average hedge price for 2016 of $51 per megawatt hour reflects an increase in the cost of elements such as transmission and renewables associated with serving our full requirements hedge obligations. And based on our current hedge position for 2016, each $2 change in spot spreads would impact earnings by about $0.04 per share. Power’s operating earnings for 2016 are forecasted at a range of $490 million to $540 million. That forecast includes an adjusted EBIT DA of $1.320 million to $1.4 billion. Forecast reflects a year-over-year decline in capacity revenues associated with the May 2015 retirement of the HEDD peaking capacity. Operating earnings for the year will also be influenced by the re-contracting of hedges at lower average price and a decline in gas sales. And most of the decline in Power's operating earnings forecast for the full year 2016 is expected to be experienced in the early part of 2016. With respect to our enterprise and other, we reported operating earnings in the fourth quarter of $4 million which compares to a loss in operating earnings of 44 million or $0.01 per share for the fourth quarter of 2014. And results for the quarter brought full year 2015 operating earnings to $36 million or $0.07 per share compared with 2014’s operating earnings of $33 million or $0.06 per share. The difference in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings reflects the absence of prior year tax adjustments as well as other parent related expenses in 2015. For the year, PSEG Long Island’s earnings contributions of $0.02 per share was in line with expectation. And looking forward to 2016, operating earnings for PSEG Enterprise and Other are forecasted at $16 million. Next I want to provide an update on our pension. At the beginning of 2016, PSEG has elected to measure service and interest costs for pension and other postretirement benefits by applying the specific spot rates along the yield curve to the plants liability cash flows rather than the prior use of a single weighted average rate. We believe the new approach provides a more precise measurement of service and interest costs by aligning the timing of the plant’s liability cash flows to the corresponding spot rates on the yield curve. The change does not affect the measurement of the plant obligations and we estimate this change will reduce 2016 pension and OPEB expense by approximately $34 million and $13 million, respectively net of amounts capitalized from what would have been without this change. On a year-over-year basis, the pension expense is expected to decline, pension and OPEB expense is expected to decline by $25 million from 2015’s level of expense. We ended 2015 with 91% of our pension obligations funded and minimum need for cash funding of obligations over the next several years. With respect to financial condition, it remained strong. We closed 2015 with $394 million of cash on hand and debt representing 43% of our consolidated capital position and debt at Power representing 27% of our capital base. PSEG’s capital program for the three years ended 2018 is currently expected to approximate $11.5 billion. This represents a 21% increase over the level of capital invested over the prior three year period as PSE&G and Power focused on modernizing their infrastructure to meet the needs of today's marketplace. We have ample capacity to finance our current capital program. In addition, we estimate that the change in bonus depreciation as Ralph mentioned will provide an additional $1.7 billion of cash through 2019 with most of this cash received over the three year’s ending 2018. And of this amount, $1.2 billion of the cash will be at PSE&G and $500 million will be at Power. And as mentioned, our forecast for double-digit growth in PSE&G’s rate base through 2018 does take into account the impact of bonus depreciation on the rate base. We plan to provide an updated five year view of the capital spending at the Annual Conference on March 11. So regarding to earnings for 2016 in $2.80 to $3 per share in line with our 2015 operating results as forecast growth at PSE&G offsets the impact of lower energy prices on Power’s operating earnings. The company remains on solid footing and we continue to focus on operational excellence, we remain disciplined in our approach to investment strategy and maintain our financial strength. Common dividend was recently increased 5.1% to the indicative annual level of $1.64 per share and we believe we can provide shareholders with consistent and sustainable growth in the dividend going forward. And with that, we are ready to answer your questions.
Operator:
[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Arnold:
Good morning, guys.
Ralph Izzo:
Hey, Jonathan.
Jonathan Arnold:
A couple of questions on the change in pension accounting methodology, could you just give - is this designed to bring you more into line with standard practice or something - can you just give us some perspective around what drove that change?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, I think it will probably increasingly look more like standard practice. In applying an interest rate we have normally done a weighted average rate which is across all of the cash flows and some recent determination has been made that in looking at the yield curve and the timing of your actually payments and the timing of the interest by virtue of shape of the yield curve be more accurate method was to apply the near-term interest rates to the near-term cash flows and the longer term interest rates to the longer term cash flows. So we've been looking at this for a while and in addition to being a more accurate method I think you will start to see this more and more in others.
Jonathan Arnold:
Your sense is that others have not - who you haven’t adopted this it yet, but you think that will go that way, is that what you're saying?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, so our intel from talking to our advisors is we're probably somewhere between 30%, 40%, 50%, so companies are pursuing and a bunch of the others are investigating the same. We’ve seen some of this from other leases that we’ve seen from others as well.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And can you give us a sense, is the change we're seeing in 2016 something that would all else equal will just persist into 2017 just a change of basis one piece? And then secondly, can you parse out the impact to the utility versus power?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, on the second piece, it’s about half and half is the general way to think about it. And with the yield curve that rises over time, you will see a moderation of the benefit of this method over time, but remaining positive, based upon all the current assumptions in place through the balance of the five year plan period. It remains positive, but declines over time.
Jonathan Arnold:
Okay. And can I just add one other topic, Enterprises, the uptick in 2016 is that mostly the Long Island contract?
Ralph Izzo:
That was correct, Jon. Some of you heard.
Jonathan Arnold:
Yeah, we missed the answer. Great. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Keith Stanley:
Hi, good morning. The $11.5 billion of CapEx over 2016 to 2018, if you take 72% of that at the utility, it seems like utility CapEx for 2016 to 2018 is about maybe I don't know, $750 million higher than what you showed in a chart at EEI. Can you just confirm if I'm reading that right and if so in what areas are you investing more money now over the next three years?
Ralph Izzo:
So Keith, the answer is you’re correct and we will detail not only that, but the full five years on March 11, but it’s the same areas we have been. It’s largely transmission related, and there is an element of Energy Strong in there as well, but we will give you the details of that as well as any new initiatives that we plan to pursue in the five-year time horizon on March 11.
Keith Stanley:
Okay. And one other one, just what ROE are you assuming at the distribution business that PSE&G in 2016 and what ROE did you earn at distribution last year?
Dan Creeg:
So you remember, ROEs are a blend of an allowed base, ROE of 10.3, and then myriad 14 to be exact of various programs that we have had approved since then, that range from 9.75 to 10.3, but with a couple of them also the beneficiary, I think that’s the tax credit in some of the solar programs. So we are earning on a longer term, but you have to do the - some of the parts so to speak of each of those programs.
Keith Stanley:
So netting out some of those programs you earned 10.3 on call it core distribution last year, and I mean, are you just assuming that you're earning precisely your allowed return and that's what you're saying you earned last year?
Dan Creeg:
So on the core distribution, yes, the 10.3, and on Energy Strong, we are going to earn the 9.75 and on solar for all, we are going to earn 10, and on energy efficiency, we are going earn 9.75 and so that’s what I am trying to point out, and because of to varying degrees contemporaneous nature of the returns we do stick to those, we do accomplish those objectives.
Keith Stanley:
Okay, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please go ahead.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Hi, good morning, can you hear me?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Excellent. So I wanted to go back a little bit to the latest BGS Auction, and ask you, if you can elaborate a little bit on what exactly drove the year-over-year results? And perhaps at least our perception of a reduction in the risk premium, can you elaborate kind of what the dynamics you saw?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, I mean, some of the bigger pieces, Julien, I think are fairly transparent from what you can see from a market perspective. I think we saw a little bit of a decline in the energy prices, which is kind of where you spot as a baseline for the auction. And then probably the couple of other areas where you’ve seen the biggest change is against that decline, as you have seen a bump on the transmission side and you have seen a bump related to some of the green costs that are involved. So you can track the green cost here in New Jersey, [indiscernible] and you can track the transmission fact, I think the BPU even sends out some of the transmission cost that ultimately get embedded in. and then finally, the last big piece, which is also fairly transparent is the capacity piece and those auctions take place in advance of by virtue of their three-year forward market and the BGS three-year forward market. They place in advance of the BGS auction. So those are your biggest movers. And there is other pieces obviously in there, there is ancillary, and different components, but those are the biggest pieces that you see related to the changes.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
But just coming back, clearly some of those big changes move in year-over-year, but at least from our calculations, it seems that even adjusting for that there might have been a little bit less of a premium there, just curious.
Ralph Izzo:
I mean, we don’t really talk necessarily about what kind of a premium you would see in the product, but I think you can - most of those pieces are transparent enough that you can build out and see what the elements of them are and I think, on balance, you’re seeing a bit of a decline on the energy side, and you’re seeing a bit of a roll up coming off in the other direction related to both transmission agreement.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Got it. Fair enough. Maybe going back to the last question a little bit more about the utility regulatory, how are you thinking about trackers in a post-great case scenario as you think about rolling at least the legacy programs in the base rate et cetera? Can you kind of talk about perhaps what the subsequent role might look like?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. While we are pleased with the success we have had, Julien over these past several years with these programs, we have been talking to the staff about - in particular the gas program, which clearly has a multi-decade run that it would need to do all of the work that the system requires of it, I am talking about replacing the cast iron, that we would like to break away from this incremental approach and into more of a longstanding approach. For no other reason that it would be beneficial to develop the infrastructure, primarily people, that one needs to sustain these programs, right. So right now, the way we run the programs is we work for contractors and we bring in the folks that are needed and we enter into this conversation six months before the program expires. But will we need more, I am not quite sure. Well, we have to wait for the BPU, so when can you find out, I will get back to you since possible, and that’s not the way we typically run a 110-year old company. We like to have training programs, bring people in as an apprentice and have them climb the technical ladder and have a nice long career and that’s a much more efficient way to use customer rates. So I think that program in particular could be a template for the type of ongoing things we want to do, we were close second to that. As you may recall, Energy Strong, we had put forth the ten-year plan that got approved for three years. And some of the cleaner technologies, whether solar or energy efficiency that will be needed to meet the state’s own renewable portfolio standard or what eventually becomes of CPP and whatever carnation takes, reincarnation that takes, I think will lend themselves to more programmatic and longstanding programs that we can anticipate and rationally equip ourselves to execute. So those conversations are going on with the Board staff now and to their credit, their responses well, you should have confidence, you have come in 14 times and 14 times we said yes and that’s true. So the question is how much of an investment risk are you willing to make in equipment and training programs and people, when the yes, it’s pretty much assured but has different forms, half the programs, half the duration and maybe three quarters of the run rate. So it’s a very constructive dialog right now to be continued.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith:
Great. Thank you so much, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line Praful Mehta with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Praful Mehta:
Hi, guys. Morning. My question firstly you guys sit in a very interesting spot where you own all three assets, coal, gas and nuclear and it's interesting the trends you highlight with gas capacity factors increasing, coal reducing. My question is, how are you thinking about asset life of these three classes of assets given the market conditions you see now? And what does that mean in terms of leverage levels that you're comfortable with for the Power business?
Ralph Izzo:
So one of the things that’s equally important to the fuel diversity of our assets is the technology diversity and performance features of our assets. So obviously, gas we have some combined cycle gas turbines, which once upon a time, we called load following, which we are looking more and more like base load. But we also have a pretty robust and healthy peaking fleet. And similar in our coal assets, we have Keystone kind of which are rightfully described as base load and candidly Hudson, Mercer, and Bridgeport stations have become more peaking with Hudson and Mercer having the additional flexibility to be able to run on gas. So it’s not just a question of fuel diversity, it’s what part in the dispatch queue, the asset can play and whether it starts, stops features and in that respect our diversity serves us well. Now, you probably picked up that we would anticipate retiring the Bridgeport Harbor coal unit in five years provided that we are successful executing the permits for the new 500 minus combined cycle units at Bridgeport Harbor, which we don’t anticipate any difficulties in doing so given the community benefits agreement we have achieved with some important stakeholder groups in Bridgeport. And I will let Dan finish up on the leverage of power, but once again, our base FFO to debt expectations are 30% and we will give you more details when we see in March, but we were well over that prior to bonus depreciation, and with bonus depreciation that number has gotten even bigger. But Dan, you may want say anything?
Dan Creeg:
Yes, I mean, the only thing I would add is obviously from the credit perspective, power’s FFO to debts are well above the 30% threshold that we have with the rating agencies to hold our existing rating. So that’s not something that we get concerned about at all. We have an awful lot of financial strength there. But I think as you do look forward, we will see a shift in the fleet and maybe be that’s kind of what your question is getting at. We have got three new efficient combined cycle plants and if you look backwards, I said in my remarks that we have some of our HEDD units, those were older peaking units that were retired for environmental purposes and they are going to be replaced by new efficient combined cycle clean gas units. So the fleet really will take out a different look into the future and we will be more efficient and we will have a better profile and be more competitive in the market.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. So as you see that fleet profile changing, are you seeing leverage levels kind of match that in terms of increasing given the quality of the new gas fleet that you’re kind of bringing on?
Dan Creeg:
I think we will see some leverage increase by virtue of the spend that will have, but I think we will remain well above where we need to from the rating agency perspective. That capacity at Power is extremely strong and is expected to remain that way, and bonus depreciation helps on that side too. We have - on the Power side of the business, we have the benefits of bonus depreciation without the detriments of any rate base reduction.
Praful Mehta:
Yes, absolutely, got it. And just secondly is a more philosophical question. As you think about the fate of Power with the consolidated business, is there at any point a view that this business needs to be a stand-alone entity or do you kind of see this more as part of the consolidated business in the next two, three year timeframe as well.
Ralph Izzo:
So as I have said before, I do see over time, you’re not going to get me to pick a time frame now. I see these businesses separating, the strategic flexibility of both would be enhanced by doing that. Some of the tactical benefits is keeping them together right now, which is the financial synergy - financial complement that Power provides to utility, we have talked about power’s new plants, but for the past five years and for the next five years, it looks like the utility will be out-spending Power almost 3 to 1 and Power is a great source of equity for that with its funds from operation. Secondly, the complement and utility provide on the customer bill is a huge advantage to us. And the support cost synergies that exists with two companies are big advantage to us as well. But as Power grows in New England, as it grows in New York State and other places, it will need to use its own FFO for investment opportunities and that free cash flow that remains to help the utility will be decreased. There will be more customers that it will be serving outside of the utilities territory so, that complementary nature will decrease. And as they both grow, the corporate overhead vital functions that corporate support groups provide, will be a smaller piece of the overall operating budget. So I think over time, the tactical benefits of staying together decrease, and the strategic advantages of separating will increase. But we’re not there today. So, yet again - continue.
Praful Mehta:
Okay. That's really helpful. And I know you're not talking timing, but I guess the benchmark or at least the milestones as we look for is, those three factors in terms of that strategic benefits as that I guess reduces in terms of the fit then the probability or likelihood of some timing of separation kind of increases. Is that a fair assessment?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so qualified yes to that. I mean, there is not magic date, there are a host of parameters one looks at, what are the market dynamics, what’s the composition of the shareholder base, are there other triggering events that could accelerate ones point of view of where the tactical benefits are now greatly reduced. So I don’t mean to be long-winded on it, but you ask a very complicated question albeit wrapped in some trout of simplicity that the Board of Directors looks at on a regular basis and so I am just giving you kind of a general point of view on that. But it’s fraught [ph] detailed analysis on a pretty regular basis.
Praful Mehta:
Got you. Very helpful, thank you so much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, guys, congrats on a good year. A couple of questions and these may be for Dan because some of them are kind of a little bit down in the weeds or in the nitty-gritty. Can you talk to us about the earnings or EBITDA contribution that maybe Power gets from things like trading or doing some of the optimization as part of the LIPA deal? And can you talk to us about the overall earnings Power you expect to get over time from the broader LIPA O&M services contract?
Ralph Izzo:
Even though Dan can answer it, Michael I just want to point out that I try to pay attention to these things.
Michael Lapides:
I totally understood Ralph.
Ralph Izzo:
So, Power’s trading group is about a $0.01 a share for LIPA and all-in LIPA is grow to about $0.07 or $0.08, so I think the share will probably be closer to the $0.05 and then stepping up $0.07 or $0.08, $0.05 or $0.06 this year, close to $0.07 or $0.08 next year. But Dan go ahead and tell him I’m wrong if I am.
Dan Creeg:
[indiscernible] right order of magnitude.
Ralph Izzo:
Order of magnitude.
Dan Creeg:
It will be $0.07 next year across the enterprise but there is just a small piece of that caught $0.01 or so that’s at the Power side of the business where that's coming from.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And do you get a significant margin from things like ancillary revenues or ancillary services in PJM or ISO-New England. Just trying to think about the components not just within BGS but within your broader margin in Power?
Dan Creeg:
I don't have an ancillary number in front of me Michael, I don't know that we've kind of provided the breakdown of all the different components of how Power makes money and far and away the biggest pieces are your capacity margin and your energy margin. There is a host of different elements that we work our way through as we manage a portfolio as a whole. I mean if you’re kind of talking somewhere in the bucket of a $0.05 a share or something like that on the ancillaries that’s probably in order of magnitude number. But we haven't broken out a lot of the pieces beyond - the biggest pieces which I think gets folks most of the way home if you look at your capacity margins, we’re very transparent about that Math and provide that within the investor relations decks that we end up on together and the same with respect to energy side of the business.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And finally when we think about the combined cycle fleet at Power I mean you've seen a significant uptick in terms of how much they can run. Just curious from a physical standpoint, what do you think - I guess I'll use the word maximum output level like how high do think they can physically run from a capacity factor standpoint versus where they been running for the last 12 to 24 months?
Dan Creeg:
I don't think that there is a physical limit to what they can do; I mean they are ultimately going to be off-line for maintenance just like any other facility would but there is nothing that snaps those plants from running as long as they are called. And it’s not a refueling outage like you would see at a nuclear plant where you would have to shut the unit down to refuel it but periodically there is major maintenance that goes on at these facilities were the unit needs to be worked on but I think we’ll have the advantage as well within the units that we have of having a kind of clean and new unit that won't have that effect over a period of time when it starts up.
Ralph Izzo:
And don’t Michael, we've also had a couple of significant improvement programs on our combined cycles we’ve improved the gas path which has actually allowed us to stretch out the major maintenance cycles and modestly improve the heat rates. And I’ll double check the numbers, we’ll certainly show them in March but I think our forced outrage rates have dropped even while our capacity factors have gone up, which is always a great sign and that just means we are taking better care of the machines. So they're running at about 65%, 66% capacity factor now. You never want to promise 100% on any mechanical device but I have not picked up from any of our team that worried about us over taxing these units.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. And then last one, Ralph, just a little curious, your thoughts on the impact if any of the Ohio PPA contracts and what that means for that competitive market dynamics and design in PJM?
Ralph Izzo:
So it depends on how that’s structured right, I mean, you're clearly - there was situation in New Jersey under what we call the LCAPP law there, their statute mandate is that winners of those contracts bid at zero and clear the auction and that was a just an egregious attempt to crush artificially capacity prices in the region. So we are participating in an industry group in Ohio to make sure that whatever is agreed upon doesn't artificially move the market in a way that disadvantage participants who don't have the protection of these contracts. I'd like to think that Ohio has been a long-standing supporter of competitive markets and whatever gets structured out there gets structured in that way. But what I’d like to think that we’re going to carefully monitor what actually is decided to maximize the chances that is indeed what happens.
Michael Lapides:
Got it. Thanks, Ralph, thanks, Dan. Much appreciated, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Gregg Orrill:
Thank you. I was wondering if you could revisit the topic of bonus depreciation. I think you said that $1.3 billion at PSE&G and $1.7 billion overall was that 2015 to '18, first of all?
Dan Creeg:
The $1.7 billion total is $1.2 billion to the utility and $500 million to Power. And that runs you out through ‘19. Most of the cash comes in through ‘18.
Gregg Orrill:
Okay. So part of that you were - at the utility you were going to be accruing into the next case, is that generally the way you are going to deal with the bonus depreciation accounting at the utility?
Dan Creeg:
Yeah, I think the way to think about it Gregg is that to the extent of transmission the impact of that will come through on a contemporaneous basis. So we will while bonus was approved after we filed our formula rate for the 2016 year, we know that it’s there and we’ll accrue that from an accounting perspective and we’ll do that true-up in future filings. But as we go forward you'll see that true-up every year with respect to the transmission piece of the bonus. Similarly, with elements related to Energy Strong, with elements related to GSMP, all the clause-related updates will take place as we file those contemporaneous and near contemporaneous filings. And then the balance of what's left which really sits with the base amount or PSE&G that will await the next rate case.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Travis Miller:
Hi, thank you. I was wondering if you guys look across your entire CapEx program both Power and PSE&G, what parts of that make you most nervous? And either nervous that you would not meet the budget that you've set out or nervous that you wouldn't meet either the allowed returns or the hurdle rates that you've set out for those projects?
Ralph Izzo:
If we're nervous about anything Travis, we make sure we take action to fix it so we don't stay nervous but I know you know that. I guess I'd say the biggest things that we pay attention to are regulatory and environmental mandates that don't add to the return expectations of our shareholders and quite candidly on occasion don't really benefit customers commensurate with the costs that need to be put into it. But other than that, as you well know, we show up at a lot of places to make acquisitions and to expand our asset base and invariably lose. So I don't think anyone would ever accuse us of being bullish or undisciplined in how we spend our money. And the good news is that most of that environmental spending is behind us. So we talked a lot about hey we're building three combined cycle units and let's make sure we have the team in place to manage those because they're not all within a city block of each other we've got one in Maryland, one in New Jersey, one in Connecticut and I probably spent an hour and half yesterday with our head of fossil talking about what his needs are and how we can make sure that those are met. So, I say in general, its mandates that don't produce the customer or shareholder benefit that the regulator thinks they do. Fortunately most of those are behind us and to the extent that if we didn't respond to the expanded construction program in Power, I would be nervous about that but we are responding and I guess the proof that I put forth for you on that is we have quadrupled in the past five years that transmission program and we've delivered those projects on schedule and on budget. So --.
Travis Miller:
Okay, that's great and then more you mention the word retail in the past and just wondering if you could update if that’s still in the Lexicon strategy?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah, it's still it is. But it remains in the Lexicon as a defensive move to help us make sure we can be more effective in managing our basis risk and key is going to go a long way to that and it's not a retail place so there are things we can do other than retail. But we are disciplined and cautious as you know I'm not a big fan of the retail business, I think everybody falls in love with it in the declining price environment that’s typically when you can make a lot of money in retail, it’s when prices rise and people are caught short for whatever reason that life isn't quite so pleasant. So we would look at it purely as a small part of our output truly for defensive purposes managing basis risk and we're still looking at that and working on it.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Stephen Byrd:
I'm wondering if you could lay out what the year-end rate base was for transmission and then for the utility overall?
Ralph Izzo:
I don't have that number - transmission was 40 something, 13.4 [ph] is the number we provided for the utility and I think 43% of that was transmission.
Stephen Byrd:
Got it, thanks very much. And you’ve been - on solely you’ve been continuing to grow there, how do you see sort of the overall market opportunity there, ability to achieve further growth in solar?
Ralph Izzo:
So, Stephen we've seen as I think you're aware we've carved out for ourselves kind of a modest sized portfolio really it’s the 250 megawatts DC I think consisted 14 or 15 projects. So these things range in size like 5 megawatts to 50 megawatts and many more closer to 5 than to 50. And we have very rigid return expectations they’re also supported by 25 to 30 year PPAs and they meet those return expectations. So, generally those returns are not available in some of the larger projects and we’ve developed a couple of partners who are really good about bringing those opportunities that they know we can execute on. So they're willing to work with us. I do see that continuing to grow, it’s mostly driven by state RPSs and I don't think we have baked in a number in terms of what size that will be. So when we talk about our capital program there isn’t a dollar of those projects in there yet. If I look back over the past three or four years, we’ve been pretty consistently doing anywhere from $100 million to $200 million of those projects.
Kathleen Lally:
I was going to say I think that brings us to the end. I’m going to turn the call back over to Ralph at this time.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Kathleen. So, looking forward to see you all hopefully in two weeks but really I hope there are three key points to take away from what Dan and I talked about today. First of all, we are genuinely excited about Power’s positioning. We’ve long had low cost nuclear and we've had a pretty good highly efficient combined cycle fleet but in three years, we’re going to have just an outstanding highly efficient combined cycle fleet. And all of our assets are going to be well positioned and I mean well positioned in the broader sense of the word there will be near load, they’ll be clean, they’ll be diversified fleet. And we’ll continue to look at opportunities to improve upon that fleet but you really should recognize that we’ve talked for a long time now about these three new units and I don't foresee any circumstances at present that would suggest any additional new build on the horizon for us. Second point is the utility growth continues and we averaged 13% growth over the last five years and if you just take our ‘15 results and the midpoint of the utility guidance for ‘16, we're going to grow at 14%. And yet utility bills will go down yet again this year because of the expiration of some charges. So the utility will represent 60% of earnings at the midpoint and it's doing stuff that is very important to customers and will just continue marching along that path. So we had a good year is the final point and I think you'll find that when we get together on March 11 that the next five years look even better. So looking forward to explaining that further when we see you in New York. Thanks everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen Lally - VP of IR Ralph Izzo - Chairman President & CEO Dan Creeg - EVP & CFO
Analysts:
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates Travis Miller - Morningstar Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs Sophie Karp - Citigroup Gregg Orrill - Barclays Capital
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Kelly and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, October 30, 2015, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 PM Eastern time today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern time on November 6, 2015. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.PSEG.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen Lally:
Thank you, Kelly. Good morning. Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. As you are aware, we released third quarter 2015 earnings statements earlier today. As mentioned, the release and attachments are posted on our website at www.PSEG.com, under the investor section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by Company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2015, is expected to be filed shortly. As, the earnings release and other matters that we discuss in today's call contain forward looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties and although we may elect to update those forward looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimate changes, unless of course we are required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations, and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Group, and also joining Ralph on the call today is Dan Creeg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions and we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up to give everyone an opportunity to join us on the call. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Kathleen, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Earlier this morning we reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.80 per share, that's a 4% improvement over the $0.77 earned in 2014's third quarter. The results for the third quarter bring PSEG's operating earnings for the nine months ended September to $2.41 per share, which represents a 6% increase over the $2.27 per share earned during the first nine months of last year. Slides 4 and 5 contain the detail on the results for the third quarter and for the nine months. We delivered solid earnings in the third quarter and year-to-date, and we made excellent progress on our objectives for growing our business. PSE&G continues to deliver on the earnings promise of its expanded capital program and PSEG Power achieved solid operational and financial results driven by improved performance from its nuclear and combined cycle fleet. During the quarter, PSE&G recent agreement with the staff of the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and the New Jersey Division of Rate Council that provided for PSE&G to invest $905 million over a three year period beginning next year to replace aging cast iron gas mains. Approval by the BPU later this year will allow PSE&G to continue the work begun under Energy Strong, supporting a clean, safe, and reliable gas system well into the future. This agreement follows upon BPU's support earlier this year for a $95 million expansion of PSE&G's investment in energy efficiency programs. PSE&G's focus on improving the resiliency of the grid and increasing operational efficiency has translated once again into PSE&G being recognized as the most reliable utility in the Mid Atlantic region for the 14th consecutive year. PSE&G's responsiveness was also recognized with receipt of the outstanding outage response time award for restoring customers 30% faster than any other large investor owned utility. This is by no means the end of the infrastructure and replacement needs for PSE&G and its customers. Turning to PSEG Power. It is increasing its investment in clean, efficient gas fired capacity. Power cleared a new 540 megawatt combined cycle gas plant at the Sewaren station as part of PJM's reliability pricing model base residual auction. The new unit represents an investment of about $625 million to $675 million. The development of new capacity at Sewaren is in addition to Power's announced plans to construct and operate a new 755-megawatt combined cycle unit at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland for between $825 million and $875 million. Both units are expected to achieve operational status in 2018. PSEG Power's $1.5 billion investment will expand its gas-fired combined cycle capacity in its core PJM market to approximately 3,800 megawatts as Power's overall gas-fired combined cycle capacity, which includes facilities in Bethlehem, New York grows to represent 4600 megawatts. PJM's capacity performance initiative under RPM provided the correct incentives for investment. PSEG Power cleared approximately 8,700 megawatts at an average price of $215 per megawatt day. Auction prices reflected the increased risk of nonperformance associated with the auction's new rules. Power adjusted its bidding strategy to reflect this new reality with an emphasis on availability and reliability under capacity performance. And we believe Power's fleet is well positioned to perform given its dispatch flexibility, diverse fuel mix, and anticipated improvement in efficiency. The new paradigm underlying PJM's capacity market is one sign of a more constructive regulatory environment for wholesale generating assets. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's notice of proposed rule-making on energy price formation issued in September is further recognition that rule changes may be required to appropriately compensate generation for the true cost of operation. Our total planned investment program covering PSE&G and Power for the five-year period ending in 2019 has expanded by 20% since the start of the year and now totals $15.6 billion. Our investments in PSE&G are expected to improve the resilience of the grid as we replace aging equipment and meet customer needs for reliability. Our investment programs are projected to result in annual double-digit growth in PSE&G's rate base for the coming five-year period. Our investment in PSEG Power should enhance our market position with improvements in the fleet's efficiency and reliability. In a word, we are executing well in a dynamic market. Based on the strength of our results, we are updating our guidance for 2015's operating earnings. We've narrowed our range for guidance as we've increased the lower end. For 2015, we are now forecasting operating earnings of $2.85 to $2.95 per share, which is different from our prior $2.80 to $2.95 per share. PSE&G has grown to represent more than half of our operating earnings as Power continues to provide strong free cash flow. We have maintained a disciplined approach to investing as our strong financial position supports growth without the need to issue equity. We intend to utilize our financial strength to meet the high standards for reliability expected by our customers and enhance the returns required by our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Dan to review our operating results in greater detail.
Dan Creeg:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everybody. I'll review our quarterly operating earnings as well as the outlook for full-year results by subsidiary company. As Ralph noted, PSEG reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.80 per share versus $0.70 per share in the third quarter of last year. For the nine months ended September 30th, we reported operating earnings of $2.41 per share versus $2.27 per share last year. We provided you a waterfall chart on Slide 10 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on Slide 12 that provides you with the changes in operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. I'll now review each Company in more detail starting with PSE&G. As shown on Slide 14, the reported operating earnings for the third quarter of $0.44 per share compared with $0.39 per share a year ago. PSE&G's earnings in the third quarter reflect the benefit of warmer than normal weather and an increase in revenue associated with PSE&G's expanded capital program. The improvement in revenue more than offset a moderate increase in operating expenses. Returns from PSE&G's expanded investment in transmission added $0.03 per share to earnings in the quarter. Weather conditions, which were much warmer than normal and warmer than a year ago, provided PSE&G's earnings $0.02, improved PSE&G's earnings by $0.02 per share. Earnings comparisons also improved by $0.01 per share due to an increase in electric demand coupled with revenue recovery and infrastructure related investment programs. And consistent with the first half of the year, PSE&G experienced an increase in pension expense resulting in a reduction in the quarter-over-quarter earnings of $0.01 per share. Electric sales grew 7% during the third quarter as residential customers responded to temperatures which produced 38% higher temperature humidity index than levels experienced in the year-ago period and 19% higher than normal. And on a weather-normalized basis, electric sales advanced 8/10 of a percent in the quarter and 4/10 of a percent for the nine months ended September. Growth for the nine-month period is in line with our long-term expectations for weather normalized electric sales growth. As Ralph mentioned, PSE&G reached settlement in principal with the staff of the BPU and the New Jersey Division of Rate Council on the Company's gas system modernization program, or GSMP. The settlement provides for an investment of $905 million over a three year period beginning in 2016 and under the settlement we would invest $650 million in the program at a 975 return on equity with the remaining $255 million investment recovered as part of our next base rate case. And you may recall that we agreed as part of our Energy Strong program to file a base rate case no later than November 1, 2017. PSE&G with the addition of programs of proven pending has increased its investment program for the five year period ending in 2019 to $11.8 billion, and this represents a 10% increase in PSE&G's capital investment plans since the start of the year and should support estimated annual double digit growth in PSE&G's rate base over this time frame. PSE&G has also filed an update of its formula rate for transmission at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The update supports PSE&G's ability to earn its authorized return on an expanded capital base and would increase transmission revenues in 2016 by $146 million. Remember, PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to grow to about 50% of its rate base by the end of 2019 versus approximately 40% at the end of 2014. We've increased our forecast of PSE&G's operating earnings for 2015 given strong year-to-date results and are now forecasting operating earnings of $785 million to $805 million versus $760 million to $775 million previously. Now turning to Power. Power reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2015 of $0.33 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $401 million, and that's compared with operating earnings of $0.34 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $386 million for the third quarter of 2014. Power's results for the quarter reflect the impact of strong hedging and increase in operation from the gas fired combined cycle fleet, and an improvement in spark spreads which offset the effect of an expected decline in capacity prices. Higher average prices on energy hedges coupled with reduction in the cost of supply more than offset the impact on earnings of lower wholesale market prices for energy, and these items combine to increase Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.07 per share. This improvement in margin in the quarter was partially offset by an expected decline in PJM's capacity revenues which reduce Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. The reduction in capacity revenues reflects the retirement of 1800 megawatts of older inefficient peaking capacity that was no longer compliant with environmental requirements. The average price received on PJM's capacity in the third quarter was in line with the year ago levels at $186 per megawatt day. Increase in O&M expense reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. This increase in operating expenses primarily reflects differences in timing of outages at PSEGs Power's nuclear facilities and is not an indicator of a higher embedded level of expenses. Lastly, the absence of prior year tax benefits reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.02 per share. As Ralph mentioned, in August PJM completed the RPM capacity auction for the 2018, 2019 year. More than 98% of Power's capacity that cleared the auction met the new capacity performance or CP standards. The price Power will receive for capacity is expected to grow to $215 per megawatt day on average for the capacity year beginning June 1, 2018, from the $168 per megawatt day for the current year. On Slide 28, we have detail on the results of the latest capacity auction, including the number of megawatts that cleared the auction as well as the average price Power expects to receive for its capacity. Power cleared a new efficient combined cycle unit at Sewaren and plans to retire a similar amount of older inefficient steam units at that site. With the results of the latest auction, Power should see growth in its capacity revenues through 2018. The generating fleet's operational flexibility continues to be demonstrated during this period of low energy pricing. Improved performance from the nuclear fleet and increased production in the gas fired combined cycle fleet offset a decline in production at the coal fired stations. Our nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 95% for the quarter, producing 7.8 TWh of output, representing 53% of total generation. This also represents a 3% increase in output. Performance of the nuclear facilities benefited from the absence of repair work at Salem 2 in 2014 and showed improvement year-over-year in spite of an early start to the refueling outage at Peach Bottom 3. Production from the gas fired combined cycle fleet increased 7% to 5.4 TWh for the quarter, representing 36% of total generation. The fleet operated extremely well running at an average capacity factor of 73% during the quarter in response to market demand. Output also benefited from the completion of capacity enhancement work at the Linden and Bergen stations which added 94 megawatts to the two stations over the past year. Warmer than normal summer weather had a favorable impact on the dispatch of our peaking fleet as dispatch of our coal fired assets was affected by lower wholesale energy prices. Wholesale market energy prices during the quarter continue to reflect a decline in the price of gas based on an overabundance of gas supply in the region, strong production of gas from the Marcellus Basin coupled with insufficient takeaway pipeline capacity has not unexpectedly resulted in lower prices for gas. Power's combined cycle fleet benefited from its access to low cost gas supply in the summer and enjoyed strong spark spreads as power prices held up better than the price of gas. Power fleet is expected to produce energy at the lower end of its forecasted range of output for 2015 of 55 to 57 terawatt hours, reflecting reduced expectations for output from our coal-fired stations. This was slightly less than our prior forecast and would provide a nominal increase in output year-over-year. Approximately 80% to 85% of anticipated production for the fourth quarter is hedged at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. Moving to 2016, Power has hedged 65% to 70% of its forecasted generation of 55 to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. For 2017 Power has hedged 35% to 40% of its forecasted generation of 55 to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. The percent of energy hedged in ‘16 and ‘17 is consistent with but at the lower end of the range for Power's prescribed ratable hedging policy. And the forecast for ’16 and ’17 continues to assume that 11 to 12 terawatt hours of annual output are hedged at BGS prices. Forecast range for Power's operating earnings for 2015 has been narrowed to $620 million to $650 million from the $620 million to $680 million prior range. This forecast of operating earnings represents adjusted EBITDA for the full year in the range of $1,545 billion to $1,595 billion. Now, turning to enterprise and other where we reported operating earnings of $11 million or $0.03 per share for the third quarter of 2015 versus operating earnings of $22 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2014 and the decline in operating earnings reflects the absence of prior year tax benefits at Energy Holdings partially offset by lower expenses and higher interest income at the parent. And the forecast for enterprise and other full-year earnings for 2015 remains $40 million to $50 million. And lastly relating to financing, PCG closed the quarter with $271 million of cash on its balance sheet with debt at the end of the quarter representing 41.5% of consolidated capital. PCG's five-year capital program has increased to $15.6 billion with the announced agreements for PSE&G and Power's plans to develop new capacity. PSE&G's capital program represents 75% of our planned capital expenditures with Power's capital program representing 25%. Given our strong balance sheet and expectations for Power's free cash flow generation, we're able to finance our capital requirements without the need to issue equity. So as mentioned, we are pleased to update our guidance for 2015's operating earnings to $2.85 to $2.95 per share and results in this range would represent the third year of growth in operating earnings. And we're now ready for your questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community [Operator Instructions]. Your first question will come from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson:
Last quarter you were discussing potentially exploring the retail market and I was wondering if you had any update on that or any thoughts given the third quarter and what have you?
Ralph Izzo:
Paul, it's Ralph. We did talk about it and we still are considering different options. Again to the extent that we think about retail, it's only in the context of the effectiveness of our hedges. This is not an offensive play. This is how do we make sure that assets that we own and operate in places like PS zone and in places like Eastern Mac and places like Bethlehem, New York, are effectively hedged when the liquid hub is at PJM west. So it's really just about the effectiveness of hedging and how to make sure that we optimize that. So, one thing we did to make sure we hedge effectively by purchasing the Keys Energy Center. That's not retail. That's a way to get at managing basis differentials and effective hedges. So we are still looking at it, but nothing imminent to announce.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. And then on the re-contracting and low cost of service -- again a good quarter for that. Given where you see things heading into 2016, any thoughts about how that -- how things look with respect to that?
Ralph Izzo:
So that was definitely explicitly stated in Dan's point of you view, right. So we don't out guess the market. We have a very clear set of guidelines that we give our trading organization in terms of how much they can hedge in terms of max and mins, all based upon calculations of VaR and gross margin at risk, and we allow them to use their judgment in terms of how market sentiment might be affecting near term prices that may be slightly out of whack with respect to fundamentals, and we allow them to lean a little bit heavier in their hedging as they did last year which benefited us because prices did kind of come up pretty strong after last winter. And as Dan pointed out, right now we're a little bit lighter than we would typically be hedged in 2017, but still within our normal range, not taking a strong point of view that the market has this all wrong, but you can infer from that that we think maybe there's a little bit more bearishness in the market than is normally the case.
Paul Patterson:
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller:
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller:
Real quick one. I want to clarify. Do you guys expect the BPU to decide on that gas replacement program later this year, is that right?
Ralph Izzo:
We're told it's going to be on the November agenda.
Travis Miller:
November agenda. Okay. Great. And then thinking more broadly here, those plants that you retired, what did you see during the summer in terms of how that capacity and ultimately energy at the peak levels was replaced? Were you guys picking up some of that? Were there other areas where you were seeing that replaced?
Ralph Izzo:
Our Kearny peaking units did run during the summer. We did have to run our Hudson unit on gas during the summer, but Sewaren, the units that we replaced, did not run during the summer.
Travis Miller:
Okay. So you're picking up that mostly with your other facilities, is that?
Ralph Izzo:
That's right. We had some expansion in some of our combined cycle units which ran, our LM6000s ran, but the old steam units that sometimes in the past we had to turn on, we did not have to turn on this year.
Dan Creeg:
A little bit of the peaking units were up as well. Coal units is where our volume was down. Our peakers picked up some of that volume.
Travis Miller:
Okay. More strategically, how do you think now about enterprise and what you can do there when investments might go there, just that segment in general?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, we see really two primary operating subsidiaries in power and in utility, Travis. The earnings that you see at enterprise really are borne out of some residual legacy leases on real estate that are very, very small and of course LIPA which is on an exactly as planned trajectory of starting out at $0.03, going to $0.08 by 2017. This year I think it's about $0.03 or $0.04. Next year that will go up to $0.06 or $0.07 and then $0.07 or $0.08 two years after as per the contract. There are no plans to put a lot up at the parent level in terms of new businesses.
Travis Miller:
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael Lapides:
Hey, Ralph. Thank you guys for taking my question. I want to know if we should see what your investment in Power is for the next couple of years as a bit of a strategy shift or a bit of a view in the market? And the reason why I ask that is if I go back over the prior six or seven, six or eight years a lot of what you've done in Power is actually more of the harvest mode. Meaning, once you finish the environmental CapEx on Hudson and Mercer, a lot of what you had done at Power had either been divesting assets or realizing the significant cash flow, the free cash flow, that the remaining assets the large portfolio created. We're now seeing a little bit of a shift and now you're becoming much more of an investor in new assets, whether it's building on existing sites or buying development projects. Is that a do you think the market has changed type of view or is there some other structural view that you're trying to express in utilizing the cash flow that way versus other potential methodologies, either allocating it to the balance sheet or allocating it even more investment at E&G? Just curious.
Ralph Izzo:
That's a very good question, Michael. We do get that from a lot of our investors so I thank you for giving us a chance to answer it. It is definitely not a strategy shift. We believe that both businesses are quite viable, quite strong, and need to be tended to in terms of their investment and growth opportunities. I think if you look at a short enough period of time, you could create whatever strategy you want to from a short enough period of time, but if I just take you back over the last five years, PSE&G made up about 80% of the capital program versus Power being 20%, and if I look ahead five years based on what I know today, that 80/20 becomes 75/25 and it's no more than that. So, if you think about Power the last five years, we spent $400 million operating nuclear units. We spent a couple $100 million dollars on peakers. We spent a couple $100 million dollars on advanced gas path upgrades. So, now we're not doing that. Instead, we're going to take an old steam unit that had 550 megawatts of capacity that there was no way it could survive in a CP future and said, okay, instead of just retiring that and leaving nothing there and losing the injection rights, let's build a combined cycle unit because we like the way those numbers look. Instead of upgrading, instead of expanding, we're going to build a natural gas combined cycle unit. As I mentioned before when I was answering Paul's question, there's some changes going on in basis. We want to know how can we manage that better. We saw a great opportunity handling that in the key investment. At the same time we announced $1 billion in new utility investments between gas system maintenance modernization and energy efficiency, and as we pointed out that program at $300 million a year run rate has 30 years to go. We only got three years of approval. So what we have is do very strong businesses, both worthy of investment, both which we look at where we can maximize the benefit for our customers and achieve the return expectations of our shareholders. So really nothing has changed; absolutely understandable why people would ask the question. If you just looked at a three-month window, all the sudden you see, wow, Power's investing $1.6 billion and utility's investing $1 billion. but I don't think you should look at narrow short windows like that.
Michael Lapides:
One other question, you talk about rate-based growth at the utilities, meaning double-digit rate base growth. Do you expect earnings growth to match rate base growth over time?
Ralph Izzo:
So it will be close but it can't match it. So the reason for that is quite simple. I am so proud of our utility folks for controlling costs, but even in the best of years you have labor escalation in our union contracts that are like 2.5%. You just look at management wage growth of 2.5%, 3% and then you look at load growth on a weather-normalized basis of 0.4% on the electric side and I think it's 0.8% on the gas side. So you just do the arithmetic and the O&M expense outstrips the growth in load. So that bit of a drag peels away at some of the contemporaneous returns that you go get from the rate-based growth. That's why these things don't match perfectly.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] You have a question from the line of Sophie Karp with Citigroup.
Sophie Karp:
Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to ask you about the nuclear economics as we continue to see very low gas environment obviously in the -- if this prevails do you see any meaningful change in the nuclear economics for your assets and does that change your view of their long-term strategy with respect to those assets?
Ralph Izzo:
Sophie, it's an excellent question. Each of our units is over 1,000 megawatts. I think if you look at both fixed and variable O&M, I don't know if we've published the operating cost of them, but it is $37 a megawatt hour, both fixed and variable. If you look at nuclear fuel costs it's far, far, far less than that. So given our capacity prices, given our variable O&M costs, our units are absolutely fine. They'd be a lot finer if gas was at $8 and $10 an MMBtu. But as you well know, some of the challenges other units have had is, number one, their size in terms of their ability to spread their fixed cost and, number two, some of the distortions that are created by the production tax credit in particular from wind farms. That's not to minimize the competitive pressures associated with natural gas, but what we're seeing is margin compression and we're nowhere near a point operating at anything but positive margins for those units. I think there will be a period, I don't know how long that will be, of competitive pressure on them, but eventually there's going to be a price on carbon. I don't know if that's going to be under CPP or some other paradigm, and these units will be able to ride through these a little bit more difficult times without any problem and then really benefit from that carbon regimen in the future.
Sophie Karp:
My other question was about transmission investments. Are you looking into any incremental transmission investment opportunities right now maybe through FERC order 1000 or any other transmission investments that are not currently in your plan or have not been contemplated previously?
Dan Creeg:
So I mean the FERC 1000 process has been around for a while and I guess I would say has been gaining traction for a while. We've been through the most recent and first opportunity here within PJM and with Artificial Island. So, yes, we are definitely involved in them. I think a lot of the areas in the country are still formulating the best way to move into this new regimen, so I would say that the prognosis for large investments in the very near term in that regard are probably less, but I think over time it is still an area where we think we have the skills and expertise that we can bring to it and we think we can be very successful in that arena.
Ralph Izzo:
And Sophie, it's important to realize that the $12 billion in the utilities prospective five-year capital program of which I think 60% or 70% is transmission. None of that is subject to FERC order 1000 competition. It's all stuff that doesn't meet the criteria for FERC 1000. The exception as Dan just implied is the $120 million of Artificial Island project that we won that's included in that number.
Operator:
Your next question will come from the line of Gregg Orrill with Barclays.
Gregg Orrill:
Ralph, you've talked about having an excess balance sheet capacity of $2 billion to $3 billion against your FFO to debt targets.
Ralph Izzo:
Right.
Gregg Orrill:
And where does stock buyback stand in the way you're thinking of using that money? Has anything changed about your thinking?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, thanks, Gregg, for the question. So nothing has changed really. We have this sort of three tiered prioritization on how to use the balance sheet. Number one is reinvesting in the business and we've been public about the fact that we will bid Bridgeport Harbor combined cycle unit in the upcoming forward capacity market in New England in February. I just mentioned a minute ago that the gas system needs $300 million per year and we have a three year program. If you subtract three from five that means there's two years that are unfunded in the plan right now. You may recall, Gregg, that we when we originally filed for Energy Strong goodness gracious two and half years ago we asked for $3.6 million as the first part of a five year program and we got $1.2 million approved and it was only put into a three year program, so that's halfway done already. And if you take 1.5 from 5, that means three and a half years of the five year program is unfunded, so there's $1 billion plus in investment opportunity there. So just looking at those three, Bridgeport Harbor, gas, and Energy Strong, you're looking at anywhere from $2.5 billion to $3 billion of investment opportunity that we've publicly discussed. Second thing is, look, let's face it, we know the utility's a steady grower but we know Power's in a commodity cyclical business and we know how important dividends are to our investors and we've been promising consistent growth in our dividend, so we'd like to make sure that balance sheet has a little bit of an ability to absorb some of the ebbs and flows of the commodity markets, so that's a second priority for us. And then, third but not one that we would never do but something that we talk about all the time, if our cost of capital is a little out of whack because the balance sheet is a little too robust and the investment opportunities are kind of far off, then let's think about share repurchase as a way to get that cost of capital back in line. So that really hasn't changed at all in terms of the three tier prioritization but perhaps a little more color on the details.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo, Mr. Creeg, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you very much. So, look, I hope your take away is the same as the message we were trying to deliver which is the Company is in great shape. Our fleet of plants, our nuclear units, our combined cycle units are running well. The utility is hitting all of its growth targets as it executes its capital program and the balance sheet remains very healthy. So, we hope that you all come out to meet Dan if you haven't met him just yet. He stepped right in and fabulous job for us, and we'll see you in Florida in two weeks. Thanks, everyone. Have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brandy, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, Friday, July 31, 2015, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM Eastern on August 7, 2015. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Brandy. Good morning. Thank you for participating in our earnings call this morning. As you are all aware, we released second quarter 2015 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachments as mentioned are posted on our website at www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also have posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter and the first half of the year. Our 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2015, is expected to be filed shortly. I won't go through the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating, earnings, and GAAP results, however, as you know the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimate changes unless, of course, we are required to do so. Our release contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I'm now going to like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Kathleen. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2015 of $0.57 per share, a 16% improvement over the $0.49 per share earned in 2014 second quarter. The results for the quarter bring operating earnings for the first half of 2015 to $1.61 per share, a 7% increase over operating earnings of $1.50 per share earned in 2014's first half. Slides 4 and 5 contain the detail on the results for the quarter in the first half. Our business is performing well and meeting the challenges of today's low energy price environment. The results for the quarter and first half of the year demonstrate the importance of strong operations in providing our customers with safe, reliable, low cost energy. PSE&G invested $1.3 billion during the first half of the year as part of its planned capital program for 2015 of $2.6 billion. This included upgrades to the electric and gas distribution and transmission system. PSE&G's focus on improving the resiliency of the grid and increasing operational efficiency has also translated into strong performance in a number of the areas of customer satisfaction including price, billing and payment, corporate citizenship and field service. PSE&G was recently assigned a share of the transmission upgrade work at Artificial Island. PJM's decision will increase PSE&G's transmission-related capital spending by $100 million to $130 million over the next four years. This project will add to PSE&G's robust pipeline of projects that will drive high single-digit growth in PSE&G's earnings over the three-year period ending in 2017. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities has begun proceedings related to PSE&G's proposed $1.6 billion Gas System Modernization Program. The investment would provide for a continuation of the work underway to replace 800 miles of cast iron and bare steel pipe over five years to enhance reliability and reduce the potential for harmful emissions of methane gas. Approval would also provide a direct boost to New Jersey's economy. We continue to believe that this is the right time to move forward with this work, given the sizeable savings customers continue to realize from low gas prices. PSEG Power's earnings demonstrate the strength of its asset mix. Recent economic investments have increased the capacity of existing nuclear and fossil units and have improved the fleet's operating efficiency. The completion of upgrade work at the gas-fired Bergen combined cycle unit yielded an increase in capacity of 31 megawatts, just as the completion of the first phase of the Peach Bottom upgrade which achieved 100% output at the new rating in May provided an additional 65 megawatts per Power's share of this nuclear unit. In addition, Power recently announced plans to construct and operate a new 755-megawatt combined cycle unit at the Keys Energy Center in Maryland at a cost of $825 million to $875 million. The investment is in keeping with Power's overall strategy of investing in efficient capacity in its core markets. All three investments will enhance Power's ability to perform on the PJM's recently approved capacity performance program. Capacity performance, with its emphasis on performance, is an example of how customer demands for reliability are increasing. The size of PSEG Power's fleet, the diversity of the fleet's fuel mix and its dispatch flexibility should support performance under the new capacity standards. The real impact of the changes in the RPM capacity auction should result over time as the market recognized the need for increased investment to maintain system reliability, particularly in light of anomalous weather patterns. We are focused on executing our investment strategies and expanding our infrastructure in a disciplined manner, a manner that supports the goals of customers and shareholders alike. PSE&G's investment program is expected to yield double-digit growth in rate base through 2019, as the earnings contribution from our regulated business should continue to exceed 50% of our consolidated earnings. PSEG Power's investment program is expected to enhance the fleet's efficiency and reliability as we continue to look for opportunities to expand that fleet. The potential investment in Artificial Island, actually the recently approved investment in Artificial Island, the announced acquisition of the Keys Energy Center and the gas system modernization program, if approved, would expand our previously announced capital program for 2015 through 2019 by 15% to 20%, or $2.2 billion. Based on the strength of our results for the first half of the year and the outlook for the remainder of the year, we are updating our earnings guidance for 2015. We have narrowed our range for guidance to $2.80 to $2.95 per share from its original $2.75 to $2.95 per share. Our financial position remains strong. The growth in capital spending can be financed without the need to issue equity. We intend to utilize our financial strength to pursue investments that enhance operating efficiency, support our market position, and seek to improve on the high levels of reliability expected by our customers as we increase shareholder value. With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline, who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Ralph, and thank you everyone for joining us today. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2015 of $0.57 per share versus operating earnings of $0.49 per share in last year's second quarter. We provide you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter on slide 4. And we've also provided you with a waterfall chart on slide 10 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on slide 12 provides you with changes in operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. So, now I'll review each company in a bit more detail, starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2015 of $0.33 per share, compared with $0.30 per share for 2014's second quarter, a 10% improvement. Results for the quarter are shown on slide 14. PSE&G's operating results for the second quarter continued to benefit from the expansion of its capital program and the impact of warmer-than-normal weather on demand. Returns from PSE&G's expanded investment in transmission added $0.04 per share to earnings in the quarter. An increase in revenue at the start of the year under its transmission formula rate provides PSE&G the opportunity to continue to earn its allowed return on its transmission investments. Electric demand benefited from the more favorable weather conditions during the quarter, that is, the weather was hotter than normal and warmer than last year, as well as the recovery of costs associated with PSE&G's capital infrastructure programs. Together, these improved earnings comparisons in the quarter by a $0.01 per share. Gas deliveries continued to grow in response to sustained low prices. The growth in gas deliveries also increased earnings comparisons by $0.01 per share. The improvement in earnings associated with this growth and revenue was partially offset by an increase in pension expense as well as higher storm-related expenses, with those increases totaling an impact of $0.02 per share. An increase in taxes and other items reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.01 per share. Economic indicators in the service territories such as employment and housing are showing signs of improvement. Modest growth in electric demand is reflective of the improvement in economic conditions. On a weather-normalized basis, electric sales grew by 0.2% for the quarter and about the same year-to-date. Growth in demand by residential and commercial customers was partially offset by a decline in demand from industrial customers, but weather-normalized deliveries of gas grew 2.7% during the first half of the year in response to sustained low prices, something you'll recall we saw last year as well. PSE&G, as part of its annual BGSS filing with the New Jersey BPU, requested a further reduction of $70 million in annual revenues, reflecting its lower cost of gas supply. When placed into effect, the BGSS rate will be reduced to $0.40 per therm from $0.45 per therm effective October 1 of this year. And including this reduction, the typical residential gas customer has experienced a reduction in his or her bill of $792, or 47%, since January of 2009. PSE&G has maintained a steady level of capital expenditures, investing $1.3 billion in the first half of the year as part of its annual planned capital program of $2.6 billion in upgrades to the electric and gas distribution and transmission systems. The capital investment associated with PSE&G's share of recommended upgrades to the transmission system at Artificial Island will increase investment in the transmission by $100 million to $130 million during the 2016 to 2019 timeframe. So, we are updating our forecast for PSE&G's operating earnings for the year from $735 million to $775 million, to $760 million to $775 million. Given year-to-date results, operating earnings for the full year will be influenced by the summer weather, and of course the recovery of costs associated with higher levels of capital spending. Now, let's turn to Power. PSEG Power reported operating earnings of $0.22 per share for the second quarter of 2015, and adjusted EBITDA of $301 million, compared with operating earnings of $0.17 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $276 million for the second quarter of 2014. Power's operating results for the second quarter benefited from improved operations at its Nuclear and Fossil generating facilities, as well as higher prices on its hedged output and a decline in the cost of its gas supply. The benefit to earnings from the improvement in operations more than offset the impact on earnings from an expected decline in capacity revenue and the lower wholesale market prices for energy. Higher average prices on energy hedges, coupled with a reduction in the cost of supply, more than offset the impact on earnings of lower wholesale market prices for energy. These items combined to increase quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.10 per share. In addition, a 10% improvement in the output over the prior year increased quarterly earnings comparisons by $0.02 per share. So this improvement in margin was partially offset by the expected decline in PJM capacity revenues, which reduced Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.08 per share. The reduction in capacity revenues reflects the impact, both of a lower average capacity price and the retirement of capacity that we've talked about before, the capacity that's no longer compliant with environmental regulations. Higher levels of O&M and depreciation expense were offset by a decline in taxes of $0.03 per share, and other items, to net improve quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.01 per share. The lower effective tax rate in the quarter of approximately 23% versus last year's 31% was anticipated, and we continue to estimate that the tax rate for the full year will approximate 38%, which is about the same rate as you saw in 2014. The increase in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter is in line with the changes in earnings per share that I just went through on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The average price for capacity declined in the quarter to approximately $168 per megawatt-day from $217 per megawatt-day. In addition, the amount of capacity that cleared the PJM capacity auction for the 2015-2016 capacity year, which we've discussed over the past few years, was reduced by about 1,800 megawatts to 8,800 megawatts. And this reflects the retirement in May of this year of the HEDD peaking capacity that didn't meet New Jersey's nitrous oxide emissions standards. As we move through the second half of 2015, the average price received on PJM capacity will remain stable, relative to the average price received during the second half of 2014 at about $168 per megawatt-day. However, we should continue to expect on a year-over-year basis a decline in capacity revenues during the second half of the year specifically related to that retirement of capacity under HEDD. The fuel diversity and flexibility of Power's fleet of generating assets was demonstrated once again in the quarter. Our output increased 10% over a year-ago levels to 13.2 terawatt-hours. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 86%, producing 7.1 terawatt-hours of output, or about 54% of our generation. And this level of output represents a 9% improvement from year-ago levels. The performance on the nuclear fleet reflects the absence of some major repairs to Salem 2 in 2014, which led this year's fewer outage-related days in the second quarter. Production from the combined cycle gas fleet increased 26% this year to 4.6 terawatt-hours of generation or 34% of our total generation, as the fleet's capacity factor improved to 61% from 49% in the year-ago quarter. Linden's availability improved versus 2014 as the result of upgrade and maintenance work that was occurring in the year-ago quarter. Dispatch of the combined cycle fleet was also supported by the availability of low-cost gas. Dispatch of the coal fleet, however, was hurt by a decline in the price of gas and lower wholesale energy prices. Output from the coal fleet declined 1.3 terawatt-hours or 10% of generation during the quarter. Wholesale market energy prices have been affected by a decline in the price of gas and anomalies in the dispatch of generation associated with the volatility in pricing. Strong production of low-cost gas from Marcellus station and the lack of sufficient takeaway capacity, not unexpectedly, has resulted in a lower price for gas. The impact on power prices from the lower cost of gas has been further compounded this summer by repair work on electric transmission lines in the Maryland-D.C. area and differentials on load, given warmer-than-normal weather in Southern PJM versus the more normal demand experienced in the northern part of PJM. That inability to dispatch energy to meet demand as a result of the transmission constraints hurt the wholesale market price for power in our region. This situation is alleviated during periods of more normal weather-related demand in the areas served by PSEG Power. So the dynamics affecting the power markets were not wholly unexpected, given that lack of gas transmission takeaway capacity in the Marcellus basin and the work underway to alleviate the constraints on electric transmission to the south of us. Power's combined cycle fleet continue to benefit from its access to this low-cost gas supply during the second quarter. And since power prices held up and we continue to access lower cost gas, the combined cycle fleet experienced an expansion of spark spreads and Power's fleet will continue to benefit from low gas prices and a somewhat open gas position. As we look to the full year, the improvement in availability of Power's gas-fired and nuclear fleet combined with incremental operating capacity at the Peach Bottom 2 nuclear plant and the gas-fired Bergen Station should allow Power's fleet to produce energy at the upper end of our forecasted output for the year of 55 terawatt-hours to 57 terawatt-hours. This level of output represents a 1% to 5% increase over 2014's output of 54.2 terawatt-hours. Approximately 70% to 75% of anticipated production for the second half of the year is hedged at an average price of $53 per megawatt hour. The average price on Power's energy hedges remains the same, approximately $4 per megawatt hour higher than the average price received on energy hedged during the second half of 2014. For 2016 and 2017, Power's forecast output will remain stable at approximately 55 terawatt-hours to 57 terawatt-hours. Of this, Power has hedged 55% to 60% of 2016's forecasted generation at an average price of $51 per megawatt-hour and about 30% to 35% of 2017's forecasted level of generation is hedged at an average price of $50 per megawatt-hour. As Ralph mentioned, Power has acquired the rights to develop the 755-megawatt gas-fired combined cycle Keys Energy Center in Maryland. The addition of Keys, which represents an investment of approximately $825 million to $875 million, is targeted to enter commercial service in 2018. The plant's location, we believe, will complement Power's fleet in the core market and add to a fleet capable of meeting PJM's new capacity performance standards. The forecasted range of Power's operating earnings for 2015, even with lower wholesale energy prices, remains $620 million to $680 million as guidance, and for adjusted EBITDA, it remains unchanged as well, at $1.545 billion to $1.645 billion. Results for the remainder of the year will be influenced by higher average hedge prices, that declining capacity revenue that I mentioned, and wholesale energy market prices. Just a quick note on Enterprise and Other. Operating earnings for PSEG Energy Holdings and Enterprise in the second quarter of 2015 were $12 million, or $0.02 per share, versus operating earnings of $7 million, or a rounded $0.02 per share, for the second quarter of 2014. The improvement in the operating income for the second quarter reflects higher earnings from PSEG Long Island, lower O&M expense, and higher interest income at the parent. And we continue to forecast full-year operating earnings for PSEG Enterprise/Other of about $40 million to $45 million. PSEG closed the quarter ended June 30, 2015 with $597 million of cash on its balance sheet, with debt at the end of the quarter representing 41.9% of consolidated capital. During the quarter, PSE&G issued $350 million of 10-year secured medium term notes at an interest rate of 3% and $250 million of 30-year secured medium-term notes at an interest rate of 4.05%, and we also redeemed $300 million of maturing medium-term notes, yielding 2.7%. As Ralph mentioned, we've updated our forecasted operating earnings for the full year to $2.80 to $2.95 per share, given the strong operating results at both businesses in the first half of the year. Estimates of PSEG Power's adjusted EBITDA remain unchanged at $1.545 billion to $1.645 billion. Finally, just on a personal note, as you know, I announced a week ago my plans to retire from PSEG during the fourth quarter. I have really enjoyed working with all of you and, as I move on, I know that PSEG has an outstanding management team, led by Ralph Izzo, with a strong balance sheet and lots of opportunities to deploy it in the future, and possesses a really solid foundation for further growth. With that, we're now ready for your questions and I'll turn it back to you, Brandy.
Operator:
Your first question is from Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, guys. Can we just talk a little bit about the Keys plant and just your thought process on the capital allocation on that front, given the fact that you've looked at a variety of other brownfield type projects in generation that haven't passed muster from your cost of capital perspective?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Dan. So I think in general, we're somewhat cautious about injecting new supply into a market where demand isn't growing much. So most of the investments you've seen us make have been kind of upgrades to existing units, and we've talked a lot about (26:54) and replacement of existing units. This one is a little bit unique for us, in that A, it's not an existing asset, and B, it is a new development project. I think what makes this one a good fit for us is its location, it's in Southwestern MAAC, where we've seen some seasonal basis advantages. Number two, I think we're ahead of the market in terms of the future delivery of gas to that region, which will put a 6,400 heat rate unit in a very, very strong competitive position. And number three, this one went beyond the usual forecasting of forward price risk, and included an element of construction risk that we believe ourselves particularly well-suited to manage, given the project work we've done, both in power and in the utility, and how well that has all worked out. So for a combination of reasons, we were able to see clear to some value creation here that was different from other opportunities, where I can't believe people outbid us. So, I think what you hear me saying is that we remain cautious on injecting copious amounts of new supply in a market that's not growing, but this was a fairly special situation that we thought fit our portfolio rather nicely.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And given kind of your history of being pretty conservative on using capital, is your view effectively that the energy value of the asset is going to make sense for it, since you don't have the lock on capacity that you would have had if you had done Bridgeport or something else?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that's right. I mean we did talk in the past about how we – we were attracted to the seven-year lock on capacity in New England. And this one obviously is more about sparks and energy margins than it is about a one-year price on capacity. But it will be clearly a CP-eligible unit.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And I guess Caroline, what – you've talked in the past about how much balance sheet capacity you guys thought you had to redeploy. How much you think you have left with the Keys investment and because it is more merchant, does that lower the amount more meaningfully than just the dollars going into the project?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No, Dan, so we still have plenty of capacity when I think about – remember the slide we showed in March and we know we've talked about before, we add capacity and multiple billions of dollars both at POWER and at parent, parent mostly for regulated. When I look at where we landed at the end of the second quarter, actually similar to what we've talked about before, Power ends with – does it cap at 31%, FFO to debt number is well above our floor level. So, we didn't relax any standards here in doing the analysis for Keys. We will be able to finance that on Power's balance sheet and that doesn't use it up, right? So, when we talk about those balance sheet capacities, remember I've mentioned before that that's the most conservative way to look at them because we look at them assuming they don't start contributing any FFO back and when this goes in service, it certainly will. So, when we looked that Keys, we didn't look at it from the perspective of well, if we do Keys, we can't do anything else. We looked at it from the perspective of Keys is a really good project and by no means does it use up all of our balance sheet capacity. So, we can still continue to look at new opportunities for Power as well. So, I feel really comfortable that it's one balance sheet deployment, but it's not the only one we'll be able to do in either businesses.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
So, this wouldn't preclude the HEDD upgrades or something else then?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No, no, not at all. We'll not preclude other things that we may be considering, not at all.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Well, Caroline, I trust we'll have you on the third quarter earnings call, so I won't say goodbye yet. And thank you guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Dan. Next question.
Operator:
The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi, good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
So, perhaps to follow-up on investment opportunities here. I'd be curious to – obviously we're moving forward or PJM is moving forward with Artificial Island at this point. I'd be curious to get your prospective on the future of FERC 1000 or FERC 1000-like investments in PJM. And specifically within that your views on the use of cost caps and just other mechanisms to be more "competitive," I suppose to what extent do you anticipate yourself and others continue to leverage those kinds of mechanisms to win as we saw with the Artificial Island example, and to what extent do you see that as impeding your ability or enhancing your ability to win, et cetera.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, it's interesting that I believe that PJM published an announcement that said that the identification of this project preceded the creation of Order 1000. So PJM did not feel obligated to achieve the strict terms of the tariff on Order 1000, which is a point that may be we would beg to differ on. Look, Julien, there is way to make this process look pretty. This was a painful process and I would like to chalk it up to the growing pains associated with Order 1000. My concern, and I've expressed this to FERC and to PJM, is that we may be heading for a ubiquitous dumbing down of the transmission system as opposed to robust solutions that have advantages over the long term. The cheapest solution in the short-term may not be the cheapest solutions of long term and I don't want to do get into a full-fledged debate over how you make comparisons across two projects. I still believe, based on everything that our engineering team has told us, that not only did we have a more robust solution, but we had a lower cost solution. So this is going to be challenging. I think efficient markets work when you have good information available to both suppliers and buyers and these are technically detailed, painful reviews done by a handful of assessors on the basis of a fairly robust set of bidders. It doesn't kind of lend itself to the transparency you see at the NYMEX on what's happening in gas markets. So I don't mean to give a speech, but it's showing some real challenges in terms of me having confidence that over the long term Order 1000 will yield a strong transmission system that won't be constantly second-guessed through a challenged – the quarters or more importantly over the long-term in the field as we head towards the least-cost solutions as opposed to the short-term least-cost solution.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Got it. And the complement – to complement that last question a little bit, PJM is talking about reducing their load forecast this cycle, given some adjustments for efficiency and solar et cetera. I'd be curious, does that impact your – A, your current spending plans, with B, your prospective plans when you are thinking about transmission, and obviously you guys are on the both sides of power and the wires business. What do you – how does that change your business at all, if you can elaborate?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. So I think that PJM is still reviewing its re-forecasted load growth. And of course load growth is an important consideration in how one designs your delivery system. But don't underestimate this significant role played by the location of load and the location of supply in having to design the transmission system. I would contend, although I couldn't prove it to you in this call, that the reason why we've had such a strong need for transmission deployment is the fact that we no longer have an integrated system where utility planners go from generation all the way to the meter and PJM has had to respond to changes in supply, both in terms of unexpected retirements and unexpected injection of new supply. And that results in the need for an even more robust transmission system and one that you can plan from generation to user. Now, for Power, we had nearly all of this forecast in our fundamental model – or fundamental model already. So when we looked at something like Keys and when we looked at whatever else we might be bidding into RPM, we do scenario analysis that includes diminished demand as well as more robust growth. But well, one way of saying it, it's not a single variable model, it's not just what's the demand, it's – where is the load, where is the supply and what's happening to the infrastructure that connects all the above.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Excellent. Well, thank you.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Julien. Next question.
Operator:
Your next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar Inc. Please proceed with your question.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning, thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Ralph, just a follow-up on that, the transmission discussion. When you think about the investments you're making, what's on the table, how close do those investments get us to kind of next generation grid, a grid where you can have distributable generation, smart type of grid? Is that kind of what you're talking about there, in terms of robustness and where we need to get to relative to the future?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So I think it does get us a long way there Travis, but I think of it more as building a set of highways, so that no matter what happens on one highway you could switch over to another one and not get stuck in a traffic jam. Other people though I think talk about the future grid as being a more flexible grid so that you don't have to build big highways and you could just direct traffic flows along the back roads intelligently so that nothing gets clogged. And that's probably not the best analogy. But I think the Internet of Things is what people speak about in terms of the ability to move power more flexibly. I'm not a big believer in that being an eventual outcome because of the connectivity that you need at the last mile, so to speak. And I'm more of a believer in the types of things that PJM is advocating, which is – look, the backhaul has to be robust, so that people can get on and off, people in the form of power plants can get on and off that backhaul system.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It's a central station dispatch model on a robust high voltage system that I think is ultimately one that will be economically more efficient.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Sure. Okay. And then, more specifically on PSEG Power in the quarter, that re-contracting lower cost to serve, how one-time type of stuff is that? I'm guessing a lot of that was spark spread versus the BGS but the re-contracting part, what are you seeing on that part?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure, Travis. This is Caroline. So yes, remember that when we talk about re-contracting as well as lower cost to serve, we give you that hedging data, right, so we give you all the details on our hedging data. And as I just said, we've moved up our hedges a little bit and the prices are basically the same as where we are. So the hedges prove to be very valuable on a year-over-year basis. I remember last year at about this time we talked about the fact that we had taken advantage of some better pricing last year to put on some incremental hedges. Now hedging doesn't last forever, but when we see those opportunities we've layered on hedges as to beneficial prices and so re-contracting, that's kind of what that benefit is about. The lower cost to serve, obviously there is lower cost to serve in terms of the wholesale market prices, but also as I mentioned in my remarks, $0.02 of that is our Leidy gas access. So, having that access to Leidy gas after the customers and PSE&G have the first call in that access, that contributed $0.02 of share in this quarter and you remember that's contributed pennies each quarters of the key quarters in the summer particularly and for each of the last two years. Now that benefit is one that we've never said we expect to continue in perpetuity. But if you look at the delta of Leidy gas cost relative to Henry Hub, you'll still see benefit. And because we have that access, that's what gives us part of our lower cost to serve, is that Leidy access. And as I mentioned, we have higher spark spreads. We've talked about this last year in the summer, as well as starting in 2013 summer, that our spark spreads for our access to that low cost gas tended to be about 30% or more higher than the sparks seen in the overall market. So, some of the things are a hedge position, some things are a little more structural, but together, we think they give us a nice position, with a combined cycle fleet, obviously, that operates very well.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. Got it. Thanks so much, and congratulations on the work that you've done while you're at PG – PSE&G.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Travis. Next question?
Operator:
The next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yes, good morning, and my congratulations to Caroline. And thank you for all your help.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
But just firstly, could we get – maybe get an update on the gas main replacement program case? If I'm not wrong, the first round of settlement talks, which have happened in July; didn't seem there was a whole lot of opposition in the hearings. So, any updated thoughts on when we might see that come to a head?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, Jonathan. Thanks for your question. As you know, settlement discussions are confidential, so we can't give you a lot of detail. It's encouraging, though, that we've had them. And our hope really is that by year-end, or at the very latest early in 2016, we would have this resolved. As you correctly noted, it's something that the state recognizes needs to be done. The interventions in the case are not many, nor has there been any surprises. And I think lowering the supply tariff from $0.45 to $0.40 in October just once again points out the wisdom of doing this now. So, as I mentioned – as we've done visits with folks, I think that the debate and the arm-wrestling will be around the length of the program and the size, but we went out of our way to file conditions that were identical to what was approved at Energy Strong, and that was approved only 14 months ago. Interest rates are exactly where they were then, and return expectations are exactly where they were then. So right now, my number one nemesis is summer vacation schedules. So we'll – I think we have a couple more settlement dates that are on the calendar for the fall, and we're well on our way to spending the $250 million for gas that was in Energy Strong that goes through early 2016. So, we wouldn't be able – even if we had an agreement today, we wouldn't be able to add a bunch of new work in the next couple of weeks anyway.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Is there – do you see a path, a route that – where it might wrap up before these fall dates, or is that unlikely?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, that's possible, I wouldn't want to bet anything that I hold near and dear to my heart on that. What we really want to do is make sure we get this done well in advance of running out of the Energy Strong money, so we don't have to demobilize the contractor workforce, so we don't put pencils down on the engineering. So we just have a continuous flow and so, if we got it done in the fall, that would certainly assure that. If we get it done by the end of the year, we should be able to do that. If it gets done early in 2016, then we create a bunch of inefficiencies that the customers end up paying for, which we'd rather avoid.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Great. And then, one other topic, just strategically, you've always been of the view that the retail business is not somewhere you want to be. But we did notice one of your merchant power peers, who have been of a similar view, is evolving somewhat in that direction this quarter, and citing poor liquidity in the forecast. I was just wondering whether you're seeing similar challenges in terms of hedging, and whether there might be any change of thought on your part on the same?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, I don't want to send off shockwaves in a third quarter call, I'm not a big fan of retail, but my short answer to your question is a qualified yes. I do think that, given challenges in hedging and matching those hedges with asset locations and some of the basis challenges one has seen, (44:34) the effectiveness of hedges has to be taken into consideration, in terms of whether or not some consideration has to be given to that. So, I don't know the details behind what Calpine did, but I can certainly understand why they would think of that, given the diminishing liquidity and the effectiveness of hedges in terms of where the consumption is and where the supply is, and where one hedges relative to those two. So – but again, please don't interpret this to expect any announcement in the next few days that PSEG is launching into the retail business, but it is something we are looking at now.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
That you're at least exploring some options on that front there.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
That's right.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
And mostly – absolutely from a defensive posture, about how do we maximize the effectiveness of our Power business, as opposed to retail being a new growth strategy or anything of that sort.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, that makes it. Thank you.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Next question?
Operator:
The next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Congrats, and Caroline, congrats on your announcement.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Michael.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
One question on CP. Everybody – most people have been pretty bullish in terms of what the impact of CP would be. From a contrarian standpoint, what's the bear case?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
I have no idea. I'm sorry, Michael. Caroline and I are looking at each other and like, no, you take it. No, I don't – so well, I guess I will default to our usual we don't forecast bullish or bearish prices. I guess the good news is today is July 31 and in 21 days we'll know the outcome. But I don't mean to be flip, I mean the bear case would be massive injection of new supply with an economy growing at 2.3%, demand growing at fractions of that. You'd have to be pretty undisciplined to inject a whole bunch of new supply but I guess that would be the bear case (46:49).
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Maybe there is a bear case if you are just a single asset, but we're a fleet, right?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Right, right.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So it feels like this is a good product from our perspective.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that would be more of a bear outcome in terms of penalties that you may incur...
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Right, right.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
If you didn't perform, right.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
How do you think about – I means lots of people talk about the potential higher bid price because lots of assets – or portfolios have kept kind of "embed" the risk of having penalties into their bid price. How about the folks like you guys who have really well performing assets? How do you think about what the potential for rewards are? If you're on the other side, I mean this is going to be a balancing or settling type market just like New England. How do you think about preparing for what potential rewards could be, where you're not as focused on the penalty side, but maybe you're also focused on the – hey what's my upside, if I'm actually the better performing units in the market and able to deliver more megawatts than what I cleared.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So that happens in two ways, Michael. We do think about that a lot and think about what it means for us. One is I set a UCAP of 90% of what my ICAP is and I get the other 10% out of that particular unit, which successfully clear the auction. That's candidly an asymmetric risk-reward relationship right, because the downside is the 90% that's strung out for you, upside is the 10% of overall performance. But for somebody like us the more significant upside is in the units that don't clear and their availability to backstop in the event that somebody else underperforms within the LDA. So we never clear 100% of our units. And when we look at our nuclear plants, they have a very low forced outage rate, our combined cycle are slightly higher but still quite low and our LM6000s – our peaking units are also very low forced outage. And so we'll make some incremental investments in some of the units that don't have the same type of operating profile, but I think really for us we have not only that sort of even better performance than in the past, but probably more important is the fact that we have a bunch of units that don't clear the auction. Some of them with high forced outage rates, but will be great insurance policies going forward.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Ralph and Caroline, much appreciated.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question is from Ashar Khan with Visium (49:32). Please proceed with your question.
Unknown Speaker:
I'm sorry, my questions have been answered. Thank you.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Ashar. (49:43) Next question?
Operator:
Mr. Izzo, Ms. Dorsa, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Thank you, Brandy. So, we tried to do a count – I think this is Caroline's 26th call. I've teamed up with her on 25, there was an August vacation I couldn't change if I remember correctly. She is going to tire of hearing me say these things, I'm not going to tire of saying these things and I'm going to do them for every one of the different audiences that we somehow manage to find ourselves in front of. I know you've all met Caroline and have been impressed by what she has done for us as a company. I can only tell you that no matter how high your opinion is of her, you probably only know a fraction of what she's done for us as a company and what she's done for me as the leader of this company. Her presentation – preparation for these calls is just the tip of the iceberg. Her discipline, day in and day out, her knowledge of the business, her knowledge of financial markets, and while all of that isn't superstar category, all of that pales in comparison to just what a pleasure she is to work with. (50:58) from the times when we've travelled around that people think that we actually like each other, but we really do like each other and I can remember the earliest days of those visits and in these calls, she would say, Ralph, you focus on the strategic issues, I'll answer the factual questions which was her delightfully professional way of saying, Ralph, you'll get it wrong (51:19). So Caroline, I can't say thank you enough for our shareholders, for our investors and for me and I know I have many opportunities to repeat that in front of employees, in front of customers and various other folks.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, thank you and thank you for all you've done. With that, we'll wrap up the call. Hope for a hot, sticky humid weather for the balance of this summer, and we'll see you, I'm sure, at various conferences. Thank you all for joining us today.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Brandy.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Angela, and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group's First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, Friday, May 1, 2015, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 o'clock PM Eastern today until 11:30 PM Eastern on May 8, 2015. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Angela. Good morning. Thank you all for participating in our earnings call this morning. As you are aware, we released our first quarter 2015 earnings statements earlier today. The release and attachments are posted on our website as mentioned, www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2015, is expected to be filed shortly. I won't go through the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but as you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although, we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes unless, of course, we are required to do so. Our release today also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings, as well as a new non-GAAP disclosure of adjusted EBITDA for PSEG Power. Please refer to today's 8-K or the other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations for a reconciliation of operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA to GAAP results. I'd now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Kathleen. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. PSEG performed extremely well in the first quarter. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2015 of $1.04 per share, that's a 3% increase over the first quarter of 2014's operating earnings of $1.01 per share. PSE&G continues to achieve best-in-class growth as we expand investments that are helping meet our customers' needs and helping New Jersey achieving important goals. PSE&G invested $599 million in the first quarter as part of its planned capital investment for 2015 of $2.6 billion in upgrades to the electric and gas distribution, and transmission systems. PSE&G's capital program is on schedule and on budget. The Susquehanna-Roseland 500 kV transmission line is expected to be fully operational later this month. This will be a major achievement. SR's 2015 operational date is 12 years after the August 2003 blackout, and almost a decade after PJM identified the critical system needs required to upgrade aging infrastructure and relieve overloaded power lines. SR's completion is testament to the cooperative relationship between PSE&G and PPL Energy and the capability shown by PSE&G in navigating the lengthy permitting and licensing process at both the federal and state levels. PSE&G's investment in transmission represented 39% of its yearend 2014 rate base. And it is forecast to grow to represent an excess of 50% of rate base in five years. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities recently approved an expansion of PSE&G's successful energy efficiency programs. The investment of $95 million over the next three years will decrease energy costs for participants and lessen the environmental effects of energy supply. At the same time, given the structure of the program, PSE&G should be able to fully earn its authorized return of 9.75%. In addition, the recommendation by PJM staff earlier this week to award PSE&G a share of the work required to upgrade reliability at Artificial Island would increase spending on transmission by anywhere from $100 million to $130 million. The AI investment, the Artificial Island investment was not included in our capital program as described in our March Investor Conference. So this is additive to our prior forecasting of utility investment opportunities. We await the BPU's action later this year on PSE&G's request to invest $1.6 billion over the next five years to continue its long-term program to modernize its gas systems. PSE&G's Gas System Modernization Program would support the replacement of approximately 160 miles of cast iron and unprotected steel gas mains per year. The replacement program would reduce the risk of leaks and it would reduce the release of methane gas. PSE&G has been replacing and modernizing its gas pipe as part of the Energy Strong program. Approval of the Gas System Modernization program would support the extension of this work, and continue to provide a direct boost to New Jersey's economy with the creation of more than 500 jobs. We continue to believe that this is the optimal time to move ahead with this work, given the sizeable savings customers continue to realize from low gas prices, spending on this program, which further enhanced PSE&G's already strong growth platform. The first quarter results for Power demonstrate the quality of its asset mix. PSE&G's Power's earnings continue to benefit from strong operations and the capable management of its gas supply. The fleet's dispatch flexibility and diverse fuel mix supported operations during this past winter. The gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines fleet's availability improved quarter-over-quarter, following conclusion of work at Linden in 2014 to increase its capacity and with a continued focus on operations. This improvement in availability aided the fleet's ability to respond to market conditions. And Power continues to benefit from the management of its gas storage and transportation agreements, which also provide substantial savings to PSE&G's residential gas customers. In a related development, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has granted PJM's request to delay the RPM capacity auction. The delay provides more time for the FERC to consider PJM's proposed changes to the auction structure. We believe PJM's original Net CONE offer cap proposal was just and reasonable, but we support PJM's proposed alternative offer cap, which the FERC agrees would allow for bids up to approximately 85% of Net CONE. The FERC's approval of the proposed changes would recognize the need for increased investment to maintain system reliability. The weather conditions experienced over the past two years exposed the critical need to maintain and improve on the resiliency of our infrastructure, the need to replace aging equipment and maintain the level of service demanded by our customers. On a separate matter, I'm pleased with the outcome of the settlement we reached with our insurers over claims related to Superstorm Sandy losses. It's been more than two years since the storm affected our operations, but in the end we have been fully compensated for the insurable spending we made on Sandy related repairs. Our business model is working the way it should. Operational excellence produces the financial strength that allows us to invest in a disciplined way for growth. Our balance sheet is strong, the financial capability supports our current plans to invest $13 billion through 2019, and it is sufficient to support an expansion of this investment program without the need to issue equity. PSE&G's investment program is expected to yield double-digit growth in rate base through 2019, as the earnings contribution from our regulated business exceeds 50% of our consolidated earnings. PSEG Power's investment program is expected to enhance the fleet's efficiency and reliability, as we continue to look for opportunities to expand Power's fleet. The successful implementation of our investment plans will provide PSEG with a strong foundation to deliver customer satisfaction and shareholder value. Based on the strong start to the current year, both operationally and financially, 2015 would represent the third year of growth in PSEG's operating earnings. But given that it is still early in 2015, we are maintaining our forecast of operating earnings for the full year of $2.75 per share to $2.95 per share. We have a proven strategy, and a key contributor to our success is the dedication of our employees to meeting the needs of customers in a safe, reliable manner. Their skills and talent are what will propel us to achieve our long-term goals. With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the first quarter of $1.04 per share versus operating earnings of $1.01 per share in last year's first quarter. We've provided you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter on slide four. As you can see on slide eight, PSEG Power provided the largest contribution to earnings. For the quarter, Power reported operating earnings of $0.55 per share compared with $0.58 per share last year. In addition, Power reported adjusted EBITDA of $626 million compared to $651 million last year. PSE&G reported operating earnings of $0.47 per share compared with $0.42 per share last year. PSEG Enterprise/Other or the parent contributed operating earnings of $0.02 per share compared with $0.01 per share for the first quarter of 2014. The waterfall chart on slide nine takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business, and I'll now review each company in a bit more detail. Let's turn to PSE&G. As shown on slide 11, PSE&G reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2015 of $0.47 per share, compared with $0.42 per share last year. PSE&G's earnings for the first quarter reflect the benefits of the increase in revenue associated with the expansion of its capital program, an increase in demand for gas, and the recovery of insurable storm costs from the settlement of Sandy-related insurance claims. PSE&G's expanded investment in transmission added $0.03 per share to earnings for the quarter. PSE&G is expected to invest $1.6 billion on transmission in 2015, and under PSE&G's formula rate, an increase in transmission revenue of $182 million was effective at the start of the year. This increase in revenue provides for recovery of known costs and appropriate returns associated with PSE&G's expanded transmission investment. The winter weather was significantly colder than normal and colder than a year ago. Of course, the gas weather-normalization clause negates the impact of weather on earnings from PSE&G's gas distribution business. However, growth in customer demand for gas normalized for weather added $0.01 per share to earnings. Quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons also benefited from a decline in operation and maintenance expense of $0.01 per share. Decline in O&M reflects the expensed portion of PSE&G share of the Sandy-related insurance settlement, and a decline in storm-related repair cost from the higher levels experienced in 2014's first quarter. Together, these more than offset the impact on O&M from an increase in pension expense. Economic indicators in the service area are modestly better than a year ago. Employment and housing indicators show signs of slow, but steady improvement. Electric demand has also shown modest improvement. And I stress the word modest in characterizing demand growth. On a weather-normalized basis, electric sales are estimated to have improved by 0.2% in the quarter and the improvement was led by a 0.6% growth from the commercial and industrial sector, which offset a decline in demand from residential customers. Gas deliveries on the other hand continue to benefit from sustained low commodity prices and the signals of recovery in the economy. Weather-normalized gas deliveries in the quarter grew by 0.4% based on a 1% improvement from the residential sector. PSE&G extended bill credits that it had provided for residential gas usage for the prior five months through April. The April bill credit cut the average bill for the typical residential customer by 32%. PSE&G received approval from the New Jersey BPU in April 2015 to increase its investment in energy efficiency. PSE&G will invest an additional $95 million over a three-year period at an authorized return on equity of 9.75%. The approval will allow PSE&G to expand its energy efficiency initiatives under several popular programs, and the structure under the agreement for revenue and cost recovery should allow PSE&G to fully earn its authorized return. We're maintaining our forecast of PSE&G's operating earnings for 2015 of $735 million to $775 million. PSE&G's earnings for the full year will be driven by the recovery of costs associated with higher levels of capital spending. Let's now move to PSEG Power. As shown on slide 15, PSEG Power reported operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.55 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $626 million compared with $0.58 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $651 million for the first quarter of 2014. Adjusted EBITDA excludes the same items as our operating earnings measure, as well as income tax expense, interest expense, depreciation and amortization, and major maintenance at Power's fossil generation facilities. PSEG Power's strong operating results from the first quarter reflect an improvement in availability of its gas-fired combined cycle fleet, higher prices on its hedged energy output, and the monetization of its gas supply. Together, these help to offset the impact on earnings from a declining capacity revenue and lower wholesale market prices for energy. An increase in the average price received on energy hedges, coupled with an increase in the percent of energy hedged in the first quarter relative to a year ago, fully offset the impact of lower wholesale market prices on earnings. We expect a decline in average PJM capacity prices to $168 per megawatt day from $242 per megawatt day last year reduced Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.09 per share. Higher gas send out to commercial and industrial customers and strong margins on sales to the off system market in a response to the extreme weather conditions experienced throughout the quarter added $0.04 per share to quarter-over-quarter earnings. The absence of a charge in the prior year improved earnings comparisons by $0.03 per share. And lastly, earnings comparisons were reduced by a $0.01 per share, due to an increase in O&M expense. The changes in adjusted EBITDA are directly parallel the changes in earnings per share on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The earnings release on slide 16 provides you with detailed analysis on the impact of Power's – on Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter from changes in revenue and costs. Let me now just take a moment to mention our inclusion of adjusted EBITDA, as both new disclosure and new guidance. We know that many of you track one or both operating earnings and EBITDA for Power. And we thought that by giving you our EBITDA on the same basis as operating earnings and adjusted for fossil major maintenance expenses, this would give you a better window into Power's cash flow generation potential and value over the long term. We took out major maintenance at our Fossil plant, as this is a periodic cost versus the ongoing run rate. As I mentioned, the changes in operating earnings align with the changes in adjusted EBITDA. In other words, the reduction in EPS of $0.03 per share associated with lower wholesale energy market prices and slightly higher O&M equates directly to the $25 million reduction in adjusted EBITDA from $651 million in 2014's first quarter to $626 million in this quarter. I plan to talk about adjusted EBITDA every quarter as we go forward, to ensure we provide you with a consistent view as many of you use this for modeling purposes. Now let's turn for a few minutes to Power's operations. Essentially, this is a tale of two winters. As you remember, the past winter was one of the coldest on record and actually colder than 2014's winter. But this past winter was also characterized by improved availability of gas supply and fewer days of extreme weather than the year-ago period, which resulted in dramatically lower wholesale energy prices than a year ago, when the market reflected scarcity pricing for a much longer period of time. The decline in wholesale energy prices in the first quarter of 2015 from the first quarter of 2014 affected the financial performance of Power's assets that were opened to the market. The increase in the average price received on energy hedges of about $4 per megawatt hour on approximately 76% of generation hedged, help secure Power's margins during the first quarter. The net impact of the higher hedge price was offset somewhat by the need to meet increased demand under load-following contracts at fixed prices. The net impact on profitability of Power's load-following contracts however is not as severe as in the year-ago period for the reasons I just mentioned. Once again, Power's ability to monetize gas supply position offset these market – energy market impacts, resulting in only a slight decline in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter as I mentioned, to $626 million from last year's $651 million. The flexibility and fuel diversity of Power's fleet supported strong operations in the cold weather conditions experienced in the first quarter. Output of 14.5 terawatt hours was in line with year ago level. The nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 95%, producing 7.8 terawatt hours of output or 54% of generation. This is just a slight decline from year ago levels. Production from the combined cycle fleet increased to 3.9 terawatt hours or 27% of generation, and this represents a 16% increase in output versus 2014's first quarter. An improvement in the availability at Linden following work to increase the station's capacity, and the availability of the Bethlehem, New York facility with an increase in gas supply led to higher production from the combined cycle fleet. The combined cycle fleet's operation was also aided by its use of oil as backup supply to maintain operations during important critical periods. The coal stations performed in line with prior period, producing about 2.5 terawatt hours of energy or about 17% of generation. Finally, output from the peaking fleet declined in response to fewer days of extreme weather. Power is maintaining its forecasted output for 2015 of between 55 terawatt hours and 57 terawatt hours, a 1% to 5% increase over 2014's output of 54.2 terawatt hours. Approximately 70% to 75% of anticipated production for the April to December period of this year is hedged at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. For 2016, Power has hedged between 50% and 55% of its forecast production of 55 terawatt hours to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. And for 2017, Power has hedged 25% to 30% of its forecast generation of 55 terawatt hours to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. The hedge data for 2015 and 2016 continues to assume volumes hedged under BGS represent approximately 11 terawatt hours to 12 terawatt hours for each year. We continue to forecast operating earnings for Power in 2015 of $620 million to $680 million. The forecast of operating earnings represents forecast of adjusted EBITDA of $1.545 billion to $1.645 billion for the full year, which compares to $1.584 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2014. Results for the remainder of the year will be heavily influenced by an increase in the average price of hedged energy and the expected decline in year-over-year capacity revenue. I want to remind you that the average price Power receives for its PJM capacity is expected to remain at 168 megawatt – $168 per megawatt day for the capacity year, which begins on June 1st of 2015. At the same time, the number of megawatts of capacity for which Power receives revenue in PJM is expected to decline by 1,800 megawatts, and this reflects primarily the retirement of the HEDD units, which we've talked about before. Slide 17 provides more detail on generation in the quarter, as slide 21 provides detail on Power's hedged position. Now let me briefly address the operating results from Enterprise/Other. For the first quarter, PSEG Enterprise/Other reported operating earnings of $0.02 per share compared with operating earnings of $0.01 per share last year. The difference in operating income is primarily the result of favorable interest and other income, the contribution to income from PSEG Long Island, and a lease portfolio was steady quarter-over-quarter. And we continue to forecast full year operating earnings for 2015 from PSEG Enterprise/Other of $40 million to $45 million. Finally, just a word on the settlement of the Sandy insurance claims. As Ralph mentioned earlier, we're very pleased that we were able to reach a settlement of claims with our insurers for coverage of Superstorm Sandy-related losses. The settlement provides a total recovery of $264 million, an amount that fully compensates PSEG for insurable spending on Sandy-related repairs. PSEG received $50 million of this amount over the 2012-2013 period, which you probably remember our talking about. Of the remaining $214 million, PSEG recognized $159 million pre-tax in the first quarter's result under a partial settlement reached with insurers, and we will recognize an additional $54 million pre-tax in the second quarter. Power's share of the settlement proceeds are not included in operating earnings or adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. As you recall, those expenses, when incurred, were not included in Power's operating earnings at that time. And this settlement fully closes out the claim related to Sandy. PSEG closed the quarter with $1 billion of cash on its balance sheet with debt at the end of March 31st of 2015 representing 41.5% of consolidated capital. The level of cash on the balance sheet is high relative to normal conditions, and this reflects the cash impact of bonus depreciation on taxes and includes the receipt of Sandy-related insurance proceeds, all both occurring, of course, at a time during the year when seasonal influences on demand have a favorable impact on cash balances. We remain in a position to finance our current capital program without the need for the issuance of equity and we look forward to seeking additional growth investments. We continue to forecast operating earnings for the full year of $2.75 to $2.95 per share. So that concludes my comments, and I'll now turn the call back over to Angela, our operator, to open up the line for questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. Your first question comes from Daniel Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning. Ralph, I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on the Artificial Island outcome. It went back and forth quite a bit. You guys got part of the project, but not all of what was originally awarded. How is that affecting your thoughts about future investment in transmission outside of the standard footprint opportunity?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Dan. Good morning. We have a complaint pending at FERC on the way in which PJM followed the process. And I have met with – the FERC commission is telling them that, we're a little concerned with both the unevenness with which FERC Order 1000 is being implemented nationwide and the fits and starts with which it's being implemented specifically within PJM. And we specifically filed that before PJM staff recommendation came out, because we didn't want it to be viewed as a case of either potentially sour grapes if we didn't win or beating of our chest if we did win. So I think the best face you could put on this is that, it's a nascent program and it's undergoing some growing pains. I have some broader concerns about it that the success of any market is in, the fact that you have multiple buyers and multiple sellers, and you have visibility to pricing and the needs of customers. And this thing has not had any of those characteristics associated with it and it's hard for me to imagine that it will be the case when it gets applied nationally that the recharge here through the separate rule license. Having said that, we're going to proceed with the complaint that the PJM FERC (29:55) recommendation to just about $120 million of $260 million project or thereabouts of round numbers. So it doesn't change our enthusiasm for transmission investment and the importance of that as it pertains to customer reliability. But the FERC Order 1000 component transmission investment, I think, still has some significant work to be done.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Thanks. And I guess just one other question. With CP hopefully advancing at this point, how are you guys looking at maybe generation related investment opportunities, and is there something you could do prospectively with repowering some of the old HEDD sites, if you're getting paid more for reliability than you have in the past?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes, Dan. That's definitely on the table. The FT4 engines, as you know, had problems with high energy delivery date KNOX (30:51) requirements. And with some SCR improvements, we believe that those would be economically viable. And our plan would be depending upon FERC's decision, if we think the auction could achieve the kind of prices that would eat down (31:03) justify those improvements, we would go ahead and make those improvements.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Do they seem more viable than maybe Bridgeport did earlier this year, because of lower capital dollars and maybe a little better visibility?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
The only thing they have in common is that they are both power plants. As you know, Bridgeport is a combination of spark spread and capacity markets. And HEDD upgrade for SCR -- sorry for the alphabet soup -- is 99.9% of our capacity payments. They're highly inefficient units, and you would only need them for reliability, you wouldn't expect any energy margin from them. So, I could better answer that question once FERC decides on the rules, but at this point in time I'd say just that, they're not directly comparable.
Daniel Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Michael Weinstein with UBS.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Real quick question about, wondering if you could talk about the possibility of getting a low carbon portfolio standard in New Jersey, and how that might impact CapEx?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yes. Thanks Michael. So, I don't see a separate and independent low carbon portfolio standard in New Jersey in the near term. I believe, if I'm not mistaken, the state's official response and comments to the EPA 111(d) proposal was questioning actually the legality of EPA's ability to implement the program. So looking at sort of the progress we've made on the RPS in the state, I believe New Jersey is intent to proceed along those lines, as opposed to doing something more comprehensive in the form of using an energy efficiency standard or a carbon standard. As you know, we have consistently and still feel this way, believed that a nationwide carbon program is required, and that states going alone, creates all sorts of economic distortions. That doesn't change our point of view, however, that there is a need for the carbon standard nationwide.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Right. And have you guys specifically mentioned, what you're going to do with proceeds from Sandy insurance recoveries?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. This is Caroline. Good morning, Michael. So no, we haven't – we haven't specifically earmarked them for things, of course money – I mentioned we're getting reimbursement, a lot of money was spent for Sandy recovery. So this fully compensates us. That money large part already spent. So the dollars that come in here really just support the strength of the balance sheet that we have and the reinvestment that we're making in new things at the utility and potential new opportunities at Power. So it just gives us more strength to pursue more growth opportunities and very pleased to have the settlement behind us.
Michael Weinstein - UBS Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Sure. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Paul.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just a few quick things. I notice that the deficiency letter, that the response that PJM made to it, there was – they didn't seem to have a problem with stop loss limits on the penalties removed, and I think you guys and maybe Exelon – I'm not sure, and tell me if I'm wrong, are not opposed to that, whereas some generators are, and I was just wondering, if you could give us a feel as to what you think might happen if those limits are removed?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
If the limits are removed, in general, Paul, I think that the greater the potential for reward which comes along with greater risk, the better it is for us. We have a highly – a high performing fleet and what's important is both halves of that sentence, A, the first half being that they're high performing and second that it's a fleet. So the interchangeability of assets that do clear the auction with assets that don't clear the auction, the fuel flexibility, the different technologies we have, all give us greater and greater confidence about the ability of the assets to perform. So to the extent that penalties become tougher, or limits get removed, one would only expect that the reward would be commensurate with that risk, and we would perform well in that market.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Right, no, I can see that. I guess I'm wondering if you have any sense as to quantifiably, or just obviously approximate just general idea about how much that might impact?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, we don't try. Even when the rules are clear, we don't predict the outcome of the auction.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
That's true.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
The rules aren't clear. (35:45)
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. I think that actually satisfies the second question that I had, then, and that's it, I guess. Thanks so much.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Okay.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thanks. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Looking at the slide 19, want to make sure I clearly understand this. The Power fuel costs, look at that oil and gas line. So generation in the quarter was up, and yet saw a substantial reduction there in that fuel cost. So I'm wondering if you could just go through that, and how sustainable that is? It's polar vortex related, or something else?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So you're right, exactly right, Travis. I mean, you think about where gas prices were last year and where gas prices are this year, they are lower. And so, you see that come right through that line. Of course oil prices were lower too, but gas is the predominant – predominant fuel here. You're seeing that directly come into that line. Remember, I also mentioned that the prices for wholesale energy were lower and that goes along with that, right. So get lower gas prices and lower power prices, preserves spark spread for us and that's what also commented on the value that our hedges provided this year on a year-over-year basis because of that reduction. That is directly related to the observable market price for gas versus last year.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Got it. Is any of that gas monetization benefit in that number, in terms of reducing the fuel costs?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. This is just the pure fuel cost, and cost of goods sold.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay, and is it sustainable? Do you think you'd see trends like this over the next couple quarters? Is this a one-off...
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So that's really gas price forecast question, right. So we really just use what's in the forward curve when we think about gas prices going forward. The important thing to keep in mind though is we've got the base load is hedged, right, in the current year. So we're really talking about what's happening in the combined cycle, and therefore their ability to preserve the spark spread because of how gas moves, protects us to an extent, but other than using the forward curve, it's really hard to predict gas prices.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Great. Thanks so much.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Shar.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
So if you take your energy strong program, combine it with gas modernization, sort of what is that – how many miles does that cover, as far as replacement of the cast iron steel pipes, and sort of where do you see that program expanding to?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So I believe it's about 150 miles per year, and it would take us 30 years.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
Okay. Got it.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So the (38:31) gas system is closer to 800 miles, but it would take us 30 years at that spending rate to replace everything.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
Okay, got it. And one just reminder, what do you – as far as, your transmission ROE's right now? What are you earning on?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So it varies. Shar, it's – our base ROE is 11.18%. We get a 50 basis points RTO membership adder for 11.68%. We had, I guess, we still have a couple of projects that get anywhere from 25 basis points to 125 basis points in addition. However, our last four or five projects that we filed for have not received any incremental ROE incentive component. So a long-awaited answer, but there is no one simple number. It starts at 11.18%, it goes up to 12.75% or something like that, that being the Susquehanna-Roseland project being the only one that got that big an adder.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
Got it, and if you'd think about it from a weighted average, it's still within the range of reasonableness that you're seeing? (39:34)
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
It comes down to about 11.7%, which is just a fraction of a bit outside the range of reasonableness.
Shar Pourreza - Guggenheim Securities:
Perfect, thanks so much.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Our next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Well good morning, guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, John.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Could you, I think you said that the amount of this Hurricane Sandy recovery that was left in the operating numbers of the utility was $0.03, roughly, in the first quarter, but there would be some amount in the second quarter, but I don't think you gave us a breakdown of how much was in Power and how much was Utility.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Right. So sure, Jonathan. So the impact to PSE&G's earnings for the first quarter benefited $0.01 to the benefit of O&M from the Sandy recovery that goes to PSE&G. The remaining piece of the settlement that we have – the remaining about $54 million, we have to go through the allocation process, and we will do that and we'll discuss how that will flow when we do the second quarter results. So a couple of things to remember. So on the Power side, we don't flow it through operating earnings, that's below the line, which you can see in the reconciliation. We don't do that because Power spend was below the line as well. And on the Utility side, remember that the recoveries that we got, including a portion of the $50 million – a small portion of that was for PSE&G in the past, goes primarily to balance sheet because a lot of the spend for storm recovery that's recoverable under our policy's capital spend and that's on the balance sheet. So there is balance sheet or regulatory asset offset, and just $0.01 of impact for the P&L from the first quarter for Sandy at PSE&G, and we'll do the second quarter piece when we do the second quarter results.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, but it sounds like it's unlikely to be that material to the year in the context of the guidance or what have you.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. I think that's right in the context of guidance, correct, right. So you've seen now we're almost done with the Sandy settlement being booked, with just $54 million to go and you've got a big piece already booked in the first quarter and the P&L impact for operating earnings purposes was just $0.01. So I think, proportionally you're thinking of it the right way.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thank you. And then just on one other topic. We've obviously, it's very – just recently, we're seeing the change in the dispatch or at least the generation stack with some of the coal plants no longer there. What are you guys seeing in terms of just day-to-day, as you come into this front end of the summer? Are there noticeable changes in operations or the units of the shopping (42:19) just not really participating already? What are you seeing in the markets?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, Jonathan. I think one of our slides shows you the capacity factors, and we had a slight dip in nuclear capacity that was purely related to an outage at Salem that wasn't planned, for and otherwise the units would have been at or better than last year in terms of nuclear. Our gas units picked up the slack from some of that, as well as some of the lower prices that Travis paid attention to earlier, but the base load coal units Keystone, Conemaugh had a strong winter season. Prices weren't – gas prices were not below that fateful $1.90 number of 2012 that resulted in some of the dispatch of those, and of course our New Jersey coal units as well as our Connecticut coal units did run a little bit during the winter months because of the unavailability. The head unit saw peakers (43:15) using the demand at the level that they would be called upon. So really no change in terms of the numbers this year from any kind of a fundamental shift in the market that we haven't over the past four years or five years.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Ralph, I was actually a bit more curious about sort of post the mid-April date, where MAPS (43:38) went into effect. It's obviously not in the quarter, so whether there's anyone that could just talk about more real-time?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, I don't think so. I think if anything the forward price curve would suggest that we'll continue to see robust capacity factors for our combined cycle gas turbine units, and nuclear units will run flat out. I mean that's pretty much the same.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Well, thank you very much.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Next question?
Operator:
And your next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Hey, guys. Congrats on a great start to the year. Two items. One on the regulated side. Can you just highlight for us what's different in CapEx known for the next few years at E&G today, versus what you talked about at the Analyst Day? Several moving parts, just want to make sure we have them all.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Michael. The one thing that's different that has been a – so what we like to show you in the March meeting is what's been approved. So, notwithstanding our complaint in front of FERC, there's $120 million – Caroline correctly described it as $110 million to $130 million in Artificial Island was not included in the March Investor Presentation as baked in. Similarly, so that's the only change of things that have been finalized and are now part of the plan. The other piece that's significantly different is that, we filed, have not received approval for $1.6 billion over the next five years in this gas system modernization program, and that's not in the utilities capital program that we showed you in March.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. The other question, thinking about your coal plants in New Jersey, so moving over to Power. Not running a lot, haven't been for a year or two. Just where are you, if at all, in the process of thinking about whether these plants will remain economic? And if not, kind of how on the edge are they, or are they clearly economic? And when you look out for the next three to five, five to seven years, they're a core part of Power's fleet?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Could you just hold on a second, Mike. I want to get my controller off the floor, he fell down. Obviously, those plants have – we made significant environmental commitments to them, and the capital requirements going forward on those plants from any kind of regulatory point of view are minimal. The real question will be, their age and their ability to perform in a CP market and the rules there are just aren't known. So to the extent that the risk reward profile of CP changes our thinking on those plants then we would – we have to address that issue. But as of now, we're happy to run them on coal in the winter and on gas in the summer, and they do just fine for us. They are part of an overall fleet, and that fleet has multiple dimensions to it that work well for us from (46:49). But I said that the new factor in the calculus will be what does CP mean?
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Last question. Can you just remind us the amount of the HEDD units in terms of megawatts, that are going or went off line?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
1500 megawatts.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. Thank you, Ralph, much appreciated.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, thank you.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Sure, next question.
Operator:
Mr. Izzo and Ms. Dorsa, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Perhaps, this is – we're finishing ahead of schedule. Thank you all for joining us. I really do hope you view this as kind of a quintessential quarter for us as opposed to anything special. I grant you we didn't have anything fancy to tell you about just steady progress in terms of new investment opportunities at the utility and solid operations all around the company. In other words, what we like to do is just deliver on our commitments, and then some. I know that Caroline and Kathleen and to a lesser extent I, will be on the road over the next couple of months and we look forward to seeing you until then just enjoy your spring. Thank you all.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Travis Miller - Morningstar Research Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brandy, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, February 20, 2015, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1 PM Eastern Time today until 11:30 PM Eastern Time on February 27, 2015. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, Brandy. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in our call today. As you are aware, we released our fourth quarter and full year 2014 earnings results earlier this morning. The release and attachments, as mentioned, are posted on our website, www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We have also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2014 is expected to be filed shortly. I don't typically read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but I do ask that you read those comments contained in our slides and on our website. The disclaimer regards forward-looking statements, detailing a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made therein. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimates change unless, of course, we are required to do so by applicable securities laws. We also provide commentary with regard to the difference between operating earnings and net income reported in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States. PSEG believes that the non-GAAP financial measure of operating earnings provides a consistent and comparable measure of performance to help shareholders understand trends. But I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions. Ralph?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Kathleen. And thanks, everyone, for joining us today. This morning, we reported operating earnings for the full year 2014. I'm pleased to report – actually I'm more than pleased to report that 2014 was a year in which we continued to make progress on our plans to deliver for our customers and shareholders. Operating earnings for the fourth quarter were $0.49 per share, which equaled the $0.49 per share earned in 2013's fourth quarter, bringing results for the full year to $2.76 per share or 7% greater than 2013's operating earnings of $2.58 per share. And it was above our guidance of $2.60 to $2.75 per share. Our results are benefiting from disciplined capital allocation. PSE&G, our utility, achieved double-digit growth in earnings, adding to our track record of five years of 18% compound annual growth. As a result of an expanded capital program, earnings from our regulated company grew to represent 52% of our consolidated operating earnings, as PSE&G's investment in transmission has grown to represent 39% of its $11.4 billion rate base. PSEG Power's successful management of its operations, including its gas supply arrangements, supported earnings in excess of guidance for the full year and delivered substantial savings to PSE&G's customers. In addition to being a successful year for delivering on earnings, we achieved success in many areas that will provide a lasting foundation for customer satisfaction and shareholder value. By way of a reminder, we received approval to invest $1.2 billion in Energy Strong, a program that will improve the resiliency of our electric and gas distribution systems. We have begun the work on replacing and modernizing 250 miles of gas pipe and have begun the engineering and scheduling associated with upgrading and enhancing our electric substation. The investments under the Energy Strong program, as you'll recall, will take place over a period of three years to five years. We're also executing well on our transmission investment program. We completed construction of two 230 kilovolt transmission lines during the year, as well as the New Jersey portion of the 500 kV Susquehanna-Roseland line. We expect the full Susquehanna-Roseland line to go into service this year, when the Pennsylvania portion of S-R is completed. The investment in transmission will support the reliable service our customers have come to expect and provide an important boost to New Jersey's economy, as it also adds to PSE&G's growth. PSE&G once again was named the Mid-Atlantic regions' Most Reliable Electric Utility. This is the 13th consecutive year that PSE&G's capabilities have been recognized. In addition to that, for the first time in its history, PSE&G received J.D. Power's award for highest customer satisfaction for both electric and gas business service among large utilities in the region. This recognition, while important in itself, we think recognizes that PSE&G has always kept the needs of its customers uppermost as we pursue our major growth initiatives. But 2014 was not just a year of PSE&G accomplishment. PSEG Power's combined cycle fleet produced at record levels as Power's fossil fleet achieved the safety performance in a tough 10% of the industry. We successfully grew PSEG solar sources portfolio. In 2014, we added projects in three states that expanded solar sources portfolio to 123 megawatts of clean renewable energy. And we had a successful first year of operating the electric system of the Long Island Power Authority. I'm particularly pleased with the efforts of our PSEG Long Island team. We're rewarded with the major improvement in customer satisfaction scores. But let me be clear, this is only the beginning of a multiyear journey for us on Long Island. Our core strategy focused on operational excellence, financial strength, and disciplined investment is anticipated to yield a third year of growth in operating earnings over the coming year. For 2015, we are initiating operating earnings guidance of $2.75 to $2.95 per share. PSE&G's expanded investment in transmission is expected to support continued growth in operating earnings in 2015, as PSE&G's results for the full year are expected to represent more than 50% of consolidated earnings. PSEG Power is expected to report operating earnings in line with its strong 2014 results. The investments made by PSEG Power are expected to enhance the competitiveness of its environmentally well-positioned fleet, capacity upgrades at our gas-fired combined cycle fleet, and that our nuclear units will increase the fleets output as Power's investment in the PennEast Pipeline enhances its already strong access to low cost gas from the Marcellus region. PSEG Power's fleet has the characteristics envisioned by PGM's proposed standards for capacity performance. Its diversity in dispatch and fuel mix as well as the alternative fuel capability mitigates operating risk. Power's investment program will be focused on improving its reliability during periods of stress on the system. We also look to expand the fleet when it's financially attractive. We were disappointed that our bid to construct the new 475 megawatt combined-cycle plant at our Bridgeport Harbor site in Connecticut didn't clear the New England ISO's recent capacity auction. However, we haven't abandoned this work and we'll invest when the markets support its development. The strategy we implemented has yielded growth. We have a robust pipeline of investment opportunities that will support further expansion of our capital program over the next five years. The program is expected to yield double-digit growth in PSE&G's rate base, as we maintain the operating strength of Power's generating assets. We will update you on our capital spending plans on March 2. Our financial position remained strong. An acknowledgment of our success and the strength of our platform going forward was the recent decision by our Board of Directors to meaningfully increase the common dividend by 5.4% to the indicative annual level of $1.56 per share. We see the potential for consistent and sustainable growth in the dividend given our business mix. Our continued positive cash flow from our generation business and our strong financial position, all supports this dividend philosophy. We've made significant strides in meeting our objectives for growth, as we also satisfy customer requirements and we're not done. Of course, none of this would be possible without the contribution made by PSEG's dedicated employees to our continued success. I look forward to discussing our investment outlook in greater detail with you at our March 2 Annual Financial Conference. I will now turn the call over to Caroline for more details on our results and we'll be available to answer your questions after her remarks.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thank you, Ralph and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of $0.49 per share equal to operating earnings of $0.49 per share in last year's fourth quarter. Our earnings for the fourth quarter brought operating earnings for the full year to $2.76 per share versus operating earnings for 2013 of $2.58 per share, or 7% growth. On slide 4, we have provided you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to net income for the quarter. And as you can see on slide 10, PSE&G provided largest contribution to earnings for the quarter. PSE&G reported operating earnings of $0.32 per share compared to $0.29 per share last year. For the quarter, Power reported operating earnings of $0.18 per share, compared with $0.23 per share last year. Enterprise/Other reported a small loss in operating earnings for the fourth quarter of a $0.01 per share versus the operating loss of $0.03 per share reported in the fourth quarter of 2013. We've provided you with waterfall charts on slides 11 and 13 to take you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year operating earnings by major business. So now, I will review each company in a bit more detail, starting with PSE&G. As I mentioned, PSE&G reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter of 2014 of $0.32 per share, compared with $0.29 per share for the fourth quarter of 2013 as we show on slide 15. PSE&G's full year 2014 operating earnings were $725 million or $1.43 per share, compared with operating earnings of $612 million or $1.21 per share for 2013 for growth of 18%. PSE&G's earnings in the fourth quarter benefited from lower operating expenses including pension and a return on its expanded capital infrastructure program, which more than offset the impact of mild weather on sales. PSE&G's investment in transmission infrastructure increased this quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.02 per share. The earnings improvement related to the investment in transmission in the fourth quarter was less than the earnings increases you've seen during each of the first three quarters of the year, and this reflects a reduction in PSE&G's rate base at year-end associated with the deferred tax impact of the expansion of bonus depreciation. PSE&G's tight control of its operating expenses, including lower pension expense, resulted in a quarter-over-quarter increase in earnings of $0.04 per share. The continued improvement in weather normalized gas volume and demand, which improved quarter-over-quarter earnings by a $0.01 per share, was offset by a similar decline in electric volume and demand. And although you wouldn't think it on a day like today, weather was actually mild relative to normal and relative to the prior year on the net reduced earnings comparisons by about a $0.01 per share. Earnings comparisons were also affected by the absence of $0.02 per share to tax related change which benefited earnings in the prior year. Economic conditions continued to exhibit signs of an improvement in the service area, which is good news. On a weather normalized basis, gas deliveries are estimated to have increased 1% in the quarter and 3.1% for the year. Demand continues to benefit from a decline in the cost of gas, which is passed on to our residential customers and an improvement in economic growth. PSE&G announced earlier this month that it would extend through March of 2015 the credits against gas bills that it had already provided to residential customers for the months of November, December and January. A typical residential customer with these credits would experience savings on their total bill over the five months of approximately 31% or $210. Electric sales on a weather normalized basis are estimated to have declined 2.3% in the fourth quarter. The decline in the quarter reflects a number of winter storms at the end of 2013, the increased residential consumption in that year, as well as decreases in demand this quarter from some large industrial customers. By the way, weather normalization is generally good for temperature, but unfortunately there is not really a good way to adjust for storms. Overall, there was a 0.3% increase in weather normalized electric demand for the year, which we think is indicative of improving economic conditions, partially offset by continued customer conservation. PSE&G implemented an increase in transmission revenue of $182 million effective on January 1 of this year. The increase in revenue under PSE&G's transmission formula rate will provide PSE&G with recovery off and a return on its forecast of transmission-related capital expenditures through the year. PSE&G's investment in transmission grew to $4.5 billion at the end of 2014 or 39% of the company's consolidated rate base of $11.4 billion, and transmission is forecasted to be well over 40% of rate base as we go forward. Let me just mention the impact of bonus depreciation. The expansion of bonus depreciation has the effect of reducing PSE&G's transmission-related rate base with an increase in deferred taxes. We estimate PSE&G's transmission related rate base was reduced by approximately $150 million to $200 million from prior forecast levels, and this is reflected in PSE&G's yearend rate base of $11.4 billon. The impact of this change on 2015 revenues is not reflected in the formula rate increase that I just went through, as that filing took place prior to the enactment of the extension of bonus depreciation. But our guidance for PSE&G reflects the impact on revenue associated with the extension of bonus depreciation and we estimate that impact to be approximately $21 million. As you know, this is really a timing related issue. We get the benefit of an increase in cash over the short-term and see a decrease in the deferred tax balance over the long term. PSE&G's operating earnings for 2015 are forecasted to grow to $735 million to $775 million. Our forecast for 2015 reflects the continued growth in PSE&G's transmission-related rate base and the expansion of PSE&G's investment and distribution through the Energy Strong program. Earnings for the full year will also be affected by a forecast increase in pension expense that will affect O&M. And I'll go into a little more detail on that shortly. We expect PSE&G's rate of earnings growth to improve beyond 2015, as the impact of bonus depreciation will annualize and pension expense is expected to be lower under long-term return and interest rate assumptions. PSE&G invested approximately $2.2 billion in 2014 on capital projects that improve the systems' resilience and maintenance its reliability. We currently forecast an increase in PSE&G's average capital spending for the next three years to about $2.4 billion per year. PSE&G's investment in transmission will represent more than 50% of this new spending. We will be providing you with an updated forecast of PSE&G's capital expenditures by year for the five-year period ending 2019 at our Annual Financial Conference on March 2 of this year, and I can tell you that spending plan remains robust. Now let's turn to PSEG Power. As shown on slide 19, Power reported operating earnings for the fourth quarter, as I mentioned, of $0.18 per share, compared with $0.23 per share a year ago. The results for the quarter brought Power's full year operating earnings to $642 million or $1.27 per share, compared to 2013's operating earnings of $710 million, or $1.40 per share. The earnings release as well as slides 11 and 13 provide you with detailed analysis of the impact on Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year from changes in revenue and costs. We've also provided you with more detail on generation in the quarter and for the year on slides 21 and 22. Power's operating earnings for the fourth quarter were influenced by the known declining capacity revenues that we've discussed in prior calls. The monetization of Power's gas supply position, and a reduction in operating and maintenance expense helped mitigate the effects of lower market prices for energy. As you recall, the average price for our PJM capacity declined to $166 per megawatt day from $244 per megawatt day on June 1 of 2014. The decline in price reduced Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.09 per share. A decline in the average hedge price for energy that Power realized during the quarter relative to year-ago levels and lower market prices on Power's open position were more than offset by Power's ability to monetize its gas supply position. These items together led to an improvement in quarter-over-quarter earnings of $0.01 per share. The decline in Power's O&M expenditures during the quarter improved quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.05 per share and the decline in expense for the quarter was greater than what we've been forecasting at the end of the third quarter. Power's management of maintenance outages at fossil stations coupled with the absence of outage related expenditures in the prior year resulted in a better than forecast reduction in O&M expense for the fourth quarter and led overall to lower O&M expense in 2014 versus the full year of 2013. Now let's turn to the operations. Power's output increased 3.1% in the quarter from year ago levels. For the year, output increased 1.3% to 54.2 terawatt hours. The fleet's flexibility in response to volatile market conditions was demonstrated in the quarter and throughout the year. The level of production achieved by the fleet in 2014 represented the third highest level of output in the fleet's history as our merchant generator. The nuclear fleet produced 29.1 terawatt hours or 54% of generation, operating at an average capacity factor of 89.3%. Hope Creek experienced its second best year, operating at 97.9% annual capacity factor, which helped to offset the impact of the extending refueling outage at Salem 2 earlier in 2014. The market is clearly rewarding efficient combined-cycle gas units, and Power's combined-cycle fleet set a generation record during the year. The fleet produced 16.5 terawatt hours or 30% of our generation during the year with record levels of output from the Bergen Station and Linden Unit 1. The coal fleet produces 7.4 terawatt hours or 14% of generation and the peaking fleet's responsiveness to market conditions particularly the abnormally cold weather experienced at the start of 2014 led to full year production of 1.2 terawatt hours. Power's gas-fired combined-cycle fleet continues to benefit from its access to lower price gas supplies in then Marcellus Basin. For the year, gas from the Marcellus Utica region supplied approximately 60% of the PJM assets fuel requirements. This represents the larger percentage of fleet's gas supply than was available in the past. Power's ability to step up its acquisition of gas from the Western Marcellus and Utica Basin in addition to the use of backhaul arrangements on existing pipe in the Eastern Marcellus improved its access to this low cost resource. This supply supports higher spark spreads than implied by market pricing and allowed Power to enjoy fuel cost savings similar to the levels it enjoyed in 2013 despite the decline in energy prices. Overall Power's gross margin per megawatt hour in the fourth quarter was $37.40 versus $45.90 last year which was driven by the capacity price reset. For the year, gross margin amounted to $42.41 per megawatt hour versus $47.10 per megawatt hour last year. And slide 24 provides detail on Power's gross margin for the quarter and the year. Power is forecasting a further improvement in output in 2015 to 55 terawatt hours to 57 terawatt hours. The increase is primarily the result of investments we have made to expand the capacity of our nuclear and combined cycle fleet. Following the completion of the Basic Generation Service auction in New Jersey earlier this month, Power has hedged 100% of its base flow generation in 2015 and has hedged approximately 75% to 80% of anticipated total production for 2015 at an average price $52 per megawatt hour which compares favorably to the average hedge prices in 2014 of $48 per megawatt hour. Power has hedged approximately 50% to 55% of its forecast generation in 2016 estimated at 55 terawatt hours to 57 terawatt hours also at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. And for 2017 Power has hedged 25% to 30% of forecast production of 55 terawatt hours to 57 terawatt hours at an average price of $52 per megawatt hour. The hedge data for 2015 and 2016 assumes BGS volumes represent approximately 11.5 terawatt hours of deliveries, about comparable to the 11.5 terawatt hours we delivered in 2014 under BGS. Based on our current hedge position for 2015, each $2 change in spark spreads would impact earnings by only $0.04 per share. This modest impact on earnings is a result of a higher percentage of output from a intermediate and peaking fleet that is hedged at this time about 40% to 45% than we had hedged a year ago, when it was really about 35% to 40% of forecasted output for the intermediate and peaking fleet. For 2016, a $1 change in natural gas pricing would impact earnings by $0.06 per share. And just for your reference, if we were fully open, the $1 change in natural gas pricing would impact earnings by about $0.24 per share. The BGS auction for PSE&G customers for the three-year period beginning June 1 of 2015 and ending on May 31, 2018 was priced at $99.54 per megawatt hour. This contract for one third of the load will replace the contract for $83.88 per megawatt hour, which expires on May 31 of this year. This latest auction is based on an average price for energy at the PJM West Hub of about $37 per megawatt hour to $38 per megawatt hour, which is similar to the base price for energy seen in the last two auctions. The BGS auction continues to represent the key means for Power to hedge basis associated with baseload output. Power's hedging strategy is consistent with what you've seen in the past. Power maintains open positions on a portion of its intermediate and load following assets and this allows Power to capture any benefits associated with weather-related demand in the summer months and contain the risks associated with fuller requirements contracts like BGS. Power took advantage of market strengths earlier in 2014 to hedge its output. And given favorable pricing, Power is also committed to serve a larger percentage of load under the BGS contract in this latest auction, which, of course, will have its proportional impact across the upcoming three years. Power's operating earnings for 2015 are forecast at $620 million to $680 million. We're very pleased that our anticipated results are essentially in line with 2014's operating results. Comparative results for the full year will be affected by a decline in capacity revenues which will essentially be fully offset by an increase in the average price received on energy hedges and a modest increase in O&M. Turning to Enterprise and Other, PSEG Enterprise/Other reported an operating earnings loss for the fourth quarter of $4 million or about $0.01 per share, which compares to a loss in operating earnings of $11 million or $0.03 per share for the fourth quarter of 2013. The results for the fourth quarter brought full-year 2014 operating earnings to $33 million or $0.06 per share, compared with 2013's operating loss of $13 million or $0.03 per share. The difference in operating results quarter-over-quarter reflects primarily the absence of tax payments and other items which contributed $0.03 per share relative to the fourth quarter of 2013. For 2015, operating earnings are forecasted to fall within the range of $40 million to $45 million and results will be influenced by the contractual payments associated with the operation of PSEG Long Island, income on the lease portfolio including the benefit from the renegotiation and extension of our lease on the Grand Gulf nuclear generating facility. Let me now just add a word about pension expense. Last year, as you recall, we saw total pension income of about $0.02 per share as the success of our investments strategy created that pension income. In 2015, our funding level remains greater than 90%, but a lower discount rate and changes to mortality tables, offset the continued strong return we generated on the Trust resulting in net pension expense of slightly less than $0.07 per share, which is split about evenly between PSE&G and Power. Keep in mind, these are non-cash charges, and we anticipate to move back to pension income over the next two-year to three-year period given our solid funding and our long-term investment strategy. These impacts that I just mentioned are embedded in our financial plan and our guidance for growth at PSE&G and consistent performance in 2015 at Power. We still see a low-single digit growth in O&M across the company over the three-year horizon and we will talk more about that in greater detail on March 2. Lastly, just a word on our financial position. We're in great shape to finance our capital program. At the end of 2014, we had $402 million of cash on hand and debt represented about 42% of our consolidated capital position, with debt at Power approximating 31% of its capital base and no parent debt. We'll be updating you on our capital program at our Annual Financial Conference but the message is the same. We can finance our robust long-term capital program and pursue a very healthy amount of growth opportunities without the need to issue equity, as we also provide our shareholders with a meaningful increase in the growth of the common dividend on sustainable basis. We're pleased to be guiding to another year of anticipated growth in earnings for 2015 of $2.75 to $2.95 per share. Our forecast continues to reflect the benefits from PSE&G's expanded capital program and the dynamics of Power's fleet and access to low cost gas supplies. As you know, the common dividend was recently increased 5.4% to the indicative annual level of a $1.56 per share, and we believe we can provide shareholders with consistent and sustainable growth in the dividend going forward. With that, Brandy, I'll turn it back to you and we're now ready for your questions.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session for members of the financial community. Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Julien.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning, Julien.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Hey. So, first quick question. Following the Bridgeport sort of back of clearing that asset, what's your thought about building out Power at present? I mean, are we going to look towards clearing potentially new assets in different markets or what's your overall thought about capital deployment at this point in time in Power or back at Public Service Utility?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, Julien, our thinking on this hasn't changed. Our Power markets that we're interested in are PJM, New York and New England. We look for asset acquisitions, we look for opportunities to repower sites, we look for opportunities to extend or increase the output of our plants. As you all know, we've been much more successful on the later and not as successful on the former. So Peach Bottom uprate, advanced gas path improvements, a couple of peakers here and there have not been able to see the same price justification as others on asset acquisitions and similar thing happened in New England. In general, we like the New England markets from the point of view of newbuild because of the seven year. That's a bigger hurdle to overcome in PJM because of the one-year price. On the regulated utility side, we'll give you more detail on March 2, but there is still very much a robust capital program that we'll be showing you for the five years, and not just in terms of transmission which has been our number one. But as we've talked about in the past, opportunities to accelerate the replacement of our cast iron mains system in the gas business, as well as some of the components of the Energy Master Plan that relate to energy efficiency and renewables. You may recall, it's only been 10 months or so. So, I'm not suggesting we're done by any means but Energy Strong was a much bigger program than what was ultimately approved, so there will be more of that, but it's a little bit longer term than the next coming months. So there is no shortage of opportunities to deploy the capital. We are disappointed at Bridgeport Harbor, I'm not going to deny that but we've reefed up things we can do.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And then perhaps moving on with what about the bidding inquiry? Any update there you can elaborate by chance where we stand?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We're not giving any more detail on that than we have already, Julien. We don't have any new information to update our financials and we are actively involved which FERC. We meet with them on a regular basis in terms of their questions and giving them feedback. But right now we'd rather make sure that FERC has all the information before talking much more about that on our earnings call.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. And then, if you will, I noticed PJM East just generally or specifically Public Service Zone, saw sort of a negative basis versus PJM West on a spot basis in the back half of the year. Could you talk about what dynamics you saw day-to-day in the market that would drive that and what your expectations are for forward basis East versus West hedging that specifically?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. So, Julien, as we said, the Power markets at least for the foreseeable future have been turned 180 degrees. The winter is where most of the volatility and earnings potential for Power is coming from and that hasn't changed since we started talking about that now almost two seasons ago. So when you look at basis for the year, that's a little bit of a misleading view of the world. It's a combination of moderate basis in the summer, very strong basis in the winter and weak basis, in fact, negative basis in the shoulder periods. But the flexibility of our fleet and the way in which we hedge it takes all that into account. Over the longer term, I think what you are going to see is the market dynamic that's going to driven by significant infrastructure build of gas pipes from the Marcellus region to the Southeast and significant replacement of aging power plants that aren't able to meet environmental standards in the Southeast with highly efficient natural gas combined cycle. So we don't run the business saying that we are smarter than the market but to the extent that the market is viewed as an extend to that three-year to five-year timeframe, we still have lots of reasons to feel pretty confident in the location and quality of our asset base.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Securities LLC:
Great. Thank you all very much.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hey, good morning, guys.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Dan.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Just kind of on the Power side of the outlook for Power, can you just walk through or remind us all the hedging strategies you guys are using? Obviously, you got the nice price uplift in the hedge percentages going from 100% hedged to a 100% hedged. So can you just remind us how you got that upside?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. Dan, it's Caroline. Sure. Thanks. Yeah, I cited the baseload and the total and, keep in mind, that intermediate and peaking, right? So if you look at what we told you on the third quarter call, we were still a 100% hedged on the baseload. But the differences really occurred as we've added hedges in that intermediate and peaking which was 5% to 10% for 2015 on the last call and is now 40% to 45%. Now, of course, piece of that would be BGS, but if you do the math on that, you'd see that's a little less than half of the total on an estimated basis. And really what's going on, Dan, and if you look at the curves, just look at the forward price curve, you see this there were opportunities where the prices moved up during the last quarter before they came down right at the very end, and spark spreads have been pretty robust. And so, we took advantage of those opportunities to layer on incremental hedges. And by having that incremental flexibility and putting on a little bit more and capturing those price in spark spread opportunities, that's what's really increased the numbers. Now, if you are asking about the change in the price of baseload, you know that we actually give one consistent price across. So even though baseload was 100%, the average price of the entirety of the book, we put that across all the hedges, but we give you the granularity of where we're hedged between baseload and intermediate and peaking. So we like the impact that we had in the fourth quarter by adding on hedges. You know that BGS, of course, being full requirements also has some pass-through costs. But even if you strip that out you'd find that the hedges are really higher than they were from our last report.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then – thank you for that answer. On the outlook for the utility this year, kind of if you look at the bridge or you think about mental bridge from 2014 to 2015, maybe not as much of an increase year-on-year as we would have previously modeled. Can I think of it as basically there is going to be a drag of $0.035 or $0.04 because of pension year-on-year maybe in nickel because you had some gains in 2014. And then you get a step down from what you would have expected at transmission because of the bonus depreciation. Is that the right way to think about the step year-to-year in simple terms?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
That's exactly right, Dan. So you're exactly on the right math, because when you look at those key things which, of course, if you think about interest rate, actuarial tables and bonus depreciation really aren't in our control. But you've got your finger on the right things that take the utility growth rate perhaps lower than the expectation, but a nice growth rate nonetheless because the things that we do control, the things we're doing to put capital to work obviously continue. And as I said, when you think about going out beyond 2015, you'd see the annualization of bonus deprecation in terms of the base versus a subsequent year effect, and then pension obviously we think being more of a one-time and then going back to normal. So you're exactly right on how you're thinking about it.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
And I guess this is the last question. You talked about $2.4 billion of utility CapEx. Is that just for 2015? Or are you guys thinking that's going to be the new repeated number kind of for the five-year plan?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So we haven't given the five-year number, but the three-year number and you'll see this in our 10-K when we file it, the three-year number averages about $2.4 billion per year in total for PSE&G, so I'm talking 2015, 2016 and 2017. And when you do that and you look at that, keep in mind that, as I said, transmission will be more than half of that. So you're going to see transmission really carrying the weight of that growth. So we're really pleased to see that on average for the next three years, and then we'll talk more about the five years on March 2.
Dan L. Eggers - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Great. Thank you, guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Sure. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan (42:04) with Visium.
Unknown Speaker:
Good morning and congratulations.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you, Ashar Khan (42:10). Good morning.
Unknown Speaker:
Well, I've been kind of attacking this I guess, Ralph, it's like – year-after-year it's like the best integrated company, and I hope we start getting discernible premium this year as we go forward.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks.
Unknown Speaker:
But I wanted to go over a point that Caroline graced is that because of the all pension and all that and the hefty CapEx that you've mentioned, if I heard correctly Caroline, you expect the utility to then go back to somewhat closer to a 9% or 10% growth rate going forward if I do my math correctly based on the CapEx and everything for the next couple of years. Is that a fair thing which you referred to a little bit in your remarks because the growth got a little bit dampened this year from 2014 to 2015 from the pension and other things. But it should re-grow at a faster rate coming out of the blocks 2015 going forward, based on the CapEx and things which you have indicated. Am I on the right track?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, Ashar Khan (43:20), you are on the right track. I won't validate a particular number that you cited there. But, yes, think about one-time effects, when you have a year-on-year effect of something like bonus depreciation which you remember, was passed at the very, very end of 2014, that has its one-year effect and then it becomes part of the base. Pension same thing, right, lower interest rates and then mortality table, which as you probably know is once in about 10-year effect, those things come in. And so, we would expect utility growth to be higher as we go on a 2015 to 2016 basis and on a 2014 to 2015 basis for exactly the reasons you cite overlaid on the backdrop of what I just mentioned, which is a continued robust investment program averaging a little bit more on an annual basis than we actually spent last year. So the fundamentals are there to provide the driver for that opportunity and we've got these sort of one-year effects from the two items. That's the right way to think about it.
Unknown Speaker:
And then, if I could just then if I'm thinking through it on an investment proposition, so it's now utility earnings with the LIPA contract and all that makeup like 55% of the earnings. And say, this is my number, if we're growing at around 9% or 10%, on the utility that would imply a consolidated growth rate of about 5% or so. And with the dividend now growing at 5%, I mean I think so we have a value proposition, which is equal to any utility or even better than the rest of the group.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
So we certainly think we have a good value proposition, no doubt about that – and thank you for mentioning the dividend as well. Obviously, we don't give guidance beyond the current year, as you know, because of Power, although I think we're pretty pleased with what we've been able to deliver and the guidance we're giving for Power for this year. And frankly, going forward, expect us to do the same things we've been doing with Power for the past few years and I think relatively successfully layering in hedging, taking advantage of opportunities when we see them, and continuing to just take advantage of a well-positioned fleet. So we do think we have a good value proposition. I just mentioned and I think you were just doing the math separately. As you know, PSEG Long Island and our operating arrangement on Long Island is not part of PSE&G's results. It's part of the Enterprise, but you may have been just adding that back in your calculation.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. And if I can just end up, Ralph, we're happy on the dividend, but do you have a payout goal in mind for the consolidated entity earnings or on the utility earnings? I just wanted to get a sense. If not the board has a payout or no?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure. No, we don't, Ashar (46:21). You may recall, a few years ago, maybe about five or so, we did have a number, and we found it too limiting. The dividend is something that we discuss all the time with the board, but we have a very robust conversation. We talk about where are the earnings coming from, what is the cash being generated, where are we in the power cycle – the power price cycle, what are the cash needs of the business, what are our competitors doing, competitors for capital, that is. So it's a very fulsome discussion and not one that lends itself to simply saying x% is the payout ratio. But we do try to guide you qualitatively recognizing that the dividend decisions are the purview of the board on a quarterly basis. But the number we put forth this time we believe is consistent with that view that we can provide a sustainable growth in the dividend.
Unknown Speaker:
Thank you so much. Cracking results.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Good morning, guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just really quick, I'm sorry if I missed it. The gas monetization in Q4, could you quantify that? And is there any sort of outlook of what the opportunity might be for stuff like that going forward?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So I didn't quantify that specifically, Paul, in terms of a number on the quarter. What I did mention was that the gas monetization benefit was essentially similar to what we saw in 2013. So you may recall in 2013 – and I'm talking about this (47:51) differential base in our supply. 2013, it was about $0.05 and in 2014 it was just about the same level. In terms of thinking about it going forward, obviously, we don't control that differential, but two things good to keep in mind. If you look at forward curves, you still see that differential. And so that's valuable and we model everything on the forward curve, including thinking about that differential. What, of course, you can always think about for us that does sustain is that access. Right? So we have the access this year, given what the team has been able to accomplish in terms of providing even more access to (48:33) Marcellus and Utica gas, we've been able to step up that percentage to a total of about 60%. And so, when you have the differential and we've got this long-term access, that's going to stay with us, can't say exactly what percentage every year, but long-term significant access. When that differential is there, you'd expect us to get it.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then the polar vortex? It looks like we have some similar conditions out there to what we saw on January 7 of last year and the performance of plant seems to be better. And I'm wondering whether or not you think that might impact the capacity performance proceedings going on right now at FERC? Or, just in general, what do you guys see or what are you hearing out of FERC or anywhere else with respect to how that process is going or your expectations with respect to it?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, Paul, you're right. I mean, temperatures have been averaging about 16 degrees below average the last few days and plants are operating. But I think I know for us and I suspect for others, there were some operational changes we're able to make to reduce the amount of forced outages. Just in light of the forecast, we moved our coal piles around a little bit more so that we make sure that we didn't face them freezing up. But what hasn't changed for us and I suspect for others, the amount of capital investment that's being made in the older units, which basically never run until you get six days averaging 16 degrees below zero. And I think FERC is very cognizant of that. So there's only so much you can get out of improved performance by doing some operational prep work and eventually frictional forces that these temperatures overcome, whatever you might do in terms of preparation and those capital improvements are needed. And so, I think FERC will be supportive. I don't want to predict any outcome. I don't want to guarantee an outcome. But suffice it to say that there's really two issues that are involved in making sure a power plant runs. It's what you physically have put into the asset and what you do to ready it. And in terms of physical preparation, it's not leaving coal piles exposed, putting buildings around them, so that they are protected from the elements, that's a capital investment and you're not going to do that unless you know that you're going to get paid in the capacity market, because those typically – in our case at least, aren't units that capture energy margin. So we're still cautiously optimistic about what FERC will do. And we are very confident that whatever FERC does, we do have the type of fleet that will benefit from it.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, great. I appreciate it.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Byrd with Morgan Stanley.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Steve.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Wanted to start on the utility. For 2014 and I guess going into 2015, what was the earned ROE at the utility in 2014 and what's the assumption going into 2015 that defines the guidance?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We earned our allowed returns, Stephen, just you may recall that we have an 11.68% return at transmission, and a blend of 10.3% at the utility for the most – at the distribution level a blend of 10.3% and some of the more recent programs are at 9.75%.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. So the actual results of 2015 were right at your earned level or were they in excess of the earned level?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
They were right at the earned level.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And...
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We're investing heavily in the utility to make sure that's the case.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Understood. And what's the timing for the likely filing of the rate case?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
November of 2017.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Is when you would file?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Is when we would file for a test year that is three months to start and nine years prospective. Typically, we may seek to push it out even further.
Stephen Calder Byrd - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then, looking over in terms of gas infrastructure, major theme we've seen is more investment in pipelines and we saw your investment there at the Power side. Do you see other potential need for gas infrastructure that looks interesting for you in your service territories, as you look at the growth of gas infrastructure?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
No, not in our service territory. It seems to me that most of the gas pipeline build that's been proposed nowadays for a variety of reasons is going from Marcellus and Utica to the Southeast and to the South. That's a much longer conversation that we can have. There is some very good economic fundamental reasons why that's taking place. I think we're ready for the next question, operator.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line from Travis Miller with the Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Good morning. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Hi, Travis.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Hi, Travis.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Hi. Wonder if you could talk about a little more of the incremental investments that you've discussed here over the last few months about Energy Strong where that stands, what filings we might see in the next three to six months opportunities, the incremental stuff, that's not been approved for Energy Strong?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Sure, Travis. The pure Energy Strong filing, if you will, had multiple components to it. There were a series of substations, for example, that were a center piece of, I think there were 29 of them that have to be upgraded and there where we are is we're in the engineering and design phase of that work. So that work is probably going to be the longest dated one, and when we do file for additional help in that area that's likely to not be off for at least another year. Another big part of Energy Strong though was the $350 million program to replace some of the cast iron main system. And I think we've done over 200 miles of that already and that is one that is scheduled to pretty much wind down by the end of 2015. So we'll talk more in detail about that on March 2, but that is a filing that we will be making in very, very short order to continue that program. That's important for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is number one. You don't want to keep mobilizing and then de-mobilizing your workforce to do that. And as I said, that's winding down at the end of the year. But probably equally if not more important is the fact that we've continued to be able to pass these gas credits on to our customers. So this is the time to make the investment in infrastructure while the supply part of the bill is actually coming down, because it's something that the customer can afford to do right now. We're always mindful of the burden that we are putting on the customers. But there are some other parts of Energy Strong that are smaller in magnitude, but those being the two biggest ones. Some of the other things we've talked about in terms of potential investments that we're still waiting to here on are the Utility 2.0 program out on Long Island. Candidly we thought that would be resolved by now, but that looks like it's going to go out a couple more quarters into this year. We had thought we were the winner of the FERC 1000 project at Artificial Island. As you know, PJM is reconsidering that, and I don't know exactly when a decision will be forthcoming there. We thought it would be Q1. But Q1 is now halfway gone and that decision isn't done. The PennEast Pipeline investment we've made is still underway. The energy efficiency filing that we made is still having very constructive dialogue with the staff on that. So, there are things in all manners, all different stages from disappointment in terms of Bridgeport Harbor, optimism in terms of energy efficiency and a whole bunch of stuff in between.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. How much of all those programs that either haven't been approved or at development process are included in that $2.4 billion CapEx number?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
None.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Zero, zero.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Research:
Okay. So that's upside. Okay. Thank you very much.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Thanks, Travis. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning guys.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Jon.
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Good morning.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Quick question on what you've said about the dividend, Ralph. You've been very clear you wanted to be, to grow consistently and sustainably. Does that mean we should anticipate similar percentage growth going forward to what you've just done or similar kind of share growth or how consistent are we talking?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
So, let's just put it this way, Jonathan, about 40 years ago or maybe, I think it was about then, we put a big increase into the dividend, I think it was about an $0.08 or $0.10 increase in the dividend. $0.12. Thank you, Jon. And we went out of our way to tell people that that was a significant resetting of the dividend and not to be expected as an ongoing change in the dividend. And we haven't used those words this time. So I really don't want to be tied to a specific number either from a cents per share or a percentage point of view, except to say that, we think this dividend increase is supportable and sustainable.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
It seems you're growing it roughly in line with how you expect the utility earnings to grow this year, I mean, is that kind of the status policy (57:40)?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. And again – that's a fair question, Jonathan. And I did say earlier that we look to see where the earnings in the company are coming from because, quite candidly, Power is more cyclical and the utility is more steady. But we don't have a – it's not formulaic. It's not 0.9 Utility plus 0.1 Power or 1.1 Utility plus 0.2 Power. It's clearly the fact that the utility will be well over 50% this year for the second year in a row. It depends on how you define well over. It'll be over 15% for the second year in a row, gives us more confidence in the size of the increase and the sustainability of the increase. But we absolutely know how important it is to the shareholders. We hear about it all the time.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then on the credit metrics, I think you mentioned that Power's FFO-to-debt was 59% (58:33) at the end of the year. Is there anything about (58:38) you're forecasting flattish earnings for 2015 in Power at the middle of the range. Is there any reason why FFO-to-debt wouldn't be similar in 2015 as in 2014?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
No. So, good question, Jonathan. If you look at, you're right, where we landed the year. Power is going to continue to be in very good shape. So I think the way to think about it is FFO-to-debt will continue to be well in excess of our floor of 30% just continuing to provide a lot of investment capacity of Power for the things that Ralph has just been talking about and of course as you know we don't have any parent debt and so that provides us even more opportunity for regulated investments. So yeah, I continue to see Power a very robust and what I like about is it allows us to have that conversation of where else can we make incremental investments, because there is just a lot of room there and that's a nice way to start the conversation about extra capital investment, not talking about issuing equity.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So unless 2016 (59:39) is going to step down very significantly, it seems like mathematically there's no way you can be sub 50% for the 2014, 2015 average, which is I think what your EEI slide showed. Could those numbers be up by that much higher? Is that -- are we on the right track there?
Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President:
Yeah. So, I won't give the specific numbers now on the call and we'll talk more about the long-term view of things on March 2, but I think the right takeaway is that balance sheet is in terrific shape and we look for as Ralph said lots of ways to deploy it. The numbers are in really, really good shape.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Did you come close on Bridgeport Harbor or was it...?
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Nice try, Jon.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
All right.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
We're not going to reveal close or not close, because as soon as I give you a qualitative answer, you'll try to narrow me further.
Jonathan Philip Arnold - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Ralph is going to have some closing remarks and then we'll complete the call. Thank you.
Ralph Izzo - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Kathleen. So something just a little bit out of character. As many of you know – as all of you know, there is probably no bigger fan of our employees than yours truly here. There is one that I just want to make special mention of that, many of you probably have never met before, but after 40 years of service in the industry and 10 years with us, eight years as our chief nuclear officer. We did announce the retirement of Tom Joyce. Tom is just the quintessential professional, not only did he just create tremendous value for our customers and our shareholders, but he did what's expected of every strong leader and that is he leaves behind an incredibly solid team and groomed a talented successor. But I just can't thank Tom enough. And I thanked him yesterday in front of employees. So I want to make sure, I thank him today in front of our investors. As for the rest of my comments, it's simply this, for those of you in the Northeast, I hope you stay warm, hang in there. Our plants are running, our gas pressures on the system are good if not only even Northeast but you are in our service territory. And I hope to see all of you a week from Monday at our annual meeting. So I hope you're as pleased as we are with that result, and the outlook for 2015 looks even stronger. See you soon. Thank you.
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President-Investor Relations:
Thank you, operator.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. And thank you for your participation.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President of Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman and CEO Caroline D. Dorsa - EVP and CFO
Analysts:
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC
Operator:
[Call Starts Abruptly] As a reminder this conference is being recorded today, October 30, 2014, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 2 o'clock p.m. Eastern today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern on November 6, 2014. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead
Kathleen A. Lally :
Thank you Brent. Good morning and Thank you all for participating in PSEG's earnings call this morning. As you were aware, we released our third quarter 2014 earnings statements earlier this morning. The release and attachments as mentioned are posted on our website, www.pseg.com under the Investor section. We have also posted a series of slides that detail the operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2014, is expected to be filed shortly. I'm not going to read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but as you know the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes, unless we of course are required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause those results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations, and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I am now going to turn the call to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group; and joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks there will be time for your questions. And I'm not going to limit you but that's…
Ralph Izzo:
Nice try, Kathleen. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2014 of $0.77 per share compared with operating earnings of $0.76 per share in 2013’s third quarter. The results for the third quarter brings PSEG's operating earnings for the nine months ended September to $2.27 per share, which is a 9% increase over the $2.09 per share earned during the first nine months of last year. I'll refer you to slides four and five as they contain the detail on the results for the third quarter and for the nine months. PSEG earnings continued to benefit from the expansion of our regulated utility capital program. Our results also benefited from the focused [placement] controlling the growth and operating expenses which offset the impact of less favorable weather conditions on demand for electricity. Our major transmission projects are being completed on time and on budget. We completed the construction of the $390 million North Central Reliability line and placed the $400 million Burlington-Camden line into service as well. These two 230 kilovolt lines will improve the system’s power quality and voltage stability. Construction on the New Jersey portion of the Susquehanna-Roseland line was also completed in the quarter. The work to connect the western portion of this major 500 kilovolt project in Pennsylvania with New Jersey is underway and it’s planned to go into service around mid-2015. We are in the midst of engineering permitting and siding work on our remaining large projects as we also work on the upgrading conversion of lower voltage lines. These projects are all part of our planned $6.8 billion capital investment in transmission which provides for the double-digit growth in the PSE&G's earnings in 2014 as well as the anticipated double digit growth in rate base and earnings through 2016. We hope to add the proposed 500 kilovolt line at Artificial Island to our stable of transmission projects. We supplemented our original proposal to meet the stability issues in Artificial Island and expect to have a decision from PJM during the first quarter of next year. We've also accelerated the replacement of PSE&G's cast iron gas type system. Approximately $350 million of the $1.22 billion energy strong investment program approved by the BPU earlier this year is dedicated to this ongoing effort. This is an opportune time to pursue these investments. Major surcharges on customer's electric bills are scheduled to expire over the next two years and the bills of PSE&G's gas customers continue to benefit from the capable management of the company's natural gas storage and transportation contracts. The BPU approved on a provisional basis a 9% reduction in the gas rate paid by residential customers. The reduction which was effective on October 1 or just the few weeks ago is the latest in the series of reductions which has lowered customers' gas bills by 44% over the past five years. PSE&G has since indicated that it intends to implement an additional bill credit over the months of November, December and January that will return approximately $160 million to residential gas customers. The earnings growth enjoyed by PSE&G in the quarter offset the impact on earnings from the well-known reset in Power's capacity revenue. Lower operating cost helped to offset the impact of mild weather on energy pricing and earnings. We're in the midst of major change in the electricity market. An unprecedented amount of capacity is expected to retire over the next two years in response to environmental requirements and market economics. In addition the availability of low cost gas in the Marcellus and Utica basins and the lag in the development of infrastructure to move the gas to market has and is expected to continue to be a source of volatility in gas and electricity prices. The new dynamic implies that winter is as important to the power market as the summer as demand in the winter season can heavily influence forward prices. Power is well situated. Its fleet of base load intermediate and peaking generating assets benefits from access to low cost gas in the summer and from price volatility in the winter. The changing dynamic in the market creates a need to review maintenance practices to assure availability of our units during critical peak conditions. The changing market dynamic appears to be recognized by PJM. The change is proposed by PJM to the reliability pricing model, RPM as we often refer to with, are designed to incent operations related investments as much as they’re meant to encourage new investments in light of the events in the winter of 2014 and no new retirements of capacity over the next two to three years. PJM's proposal which provides for a change in the demand curve as well as its capacity performance proposal could provide greater visibility to much needed market driven price formation. Outside PJM, the potential to receive a seven year contracts for new capacity that clears the market in New England under its revised capacity construct has encouraged us to consider bidding a new 450 megawatt gas-fired combined cycle unit into next year's auction. The new unit which will be located at our existing Bridgeport Harbor site would represent a $600 million investment. I do want to emphasize however that we would only proceed with this project if it clears in the forward capacity auction. The potential investment in Bridgeport Harbor would represent the latest of several opportunities for PSEG. Over the past quarter Power has announced the plan to invest $120 million for an equity interest in the PennEast Pipeline. This 105 mile pipeline would bring gas from Pennsylvania into New Jersey and provide PSEG and its customers with increased access to low cost natural gas supply. Similarly, PSEG Long Island has updated its utility 2.0 proposal with a revised proposal to spend up to $345 million, meets the customer's desire for increased investment in energy efficiency demand resources and distributed generation. It also limits the impact on customer bills as the increased investment would be financed by the LIPA, the Long Island Power Authority. The inclusion of our performance incentive mechanism in the proposal provides PSEG Long Island the opportunity to earn an increased return. If preferred the proposal also reaffirms PSEG Long Island's original approach to fund new rate base like investments. So PSEG Long Island could benefit from the utility 2.0 investments through either the use of its own capital or proving out the effectiveness of the programs and earning under the performance mechanism. PSE&G is also awaiting BPU's response to its request to invest approximately $100 million in programs that would extend existing energy efficiency offerings here in New Jersey. Together, if my math is right, these programs represent an investment opportunity of over $1.2 billion and extend the growth associated with our existing $13 billion capital program. These investments also provide our customers with access to low cost gas and cost effective technologies that reduce emissions as they also improve system reliability. Based on the strength of our results for the quarter and year-to-date we are raising the low end of our full year operating earnings guidance to $2.60 from $2.55 per share. And as we indicated last quarter we remain on track to achieve results at the upper end of our revised operating guidance of $2.60 to $2.75 per share. Our investments are meeting our expectations, our costs are under control and we remain well positioned to deploy our balance sheet to meet shareholder objectives for long-term growth. I'll now turn the call over to Caroline to review our operating results in greater detail.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Thank you Ralph and good morning. I will review our quarterly operating earnings as well as the outlook for full year results by each subsidiary company. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2014 of $0.77 per share versus $0.76 per share in last year's third quarter. And for the nine months ending September 30th we reported operating earnings of $2.27 per share versus $2.09 per share last year. Slide four and five provide a reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter and year-to-date. We've also provided you a waterfall chart on slide 10 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on slide 12 that provides you with those changes in operating earnings by business on a year-to-date basis. So now I’ll overview each company in more detail starting with PSE&G. As shown on slide 14 PSE&G reported operating earnings for the third quarter of $0.39 per share compared with $0.33 per share a year ago. PSE&G's earnings in the third quarter continue to benefit from the increase in the revenue associated with its expanded capital program particularly in transmission and a decline in operating profit. An approved increase in PSE&G's transmission revenue under its formula rate effective at the start of the year supported the quarter-over-quarter increase in the net earnings contribution from transmission of $0.04 per share bringing the total transmission-related earnings increase to $0.10 per share on a year-to-date basis. And the roll-in of our second capital infrastructure program or CIP II into our rates this past July improved earnings comparisons from distribution during the quarter by $0.01 per share. The decline in operating expenses particularly pension expense lead to an improvement in earnings of $0.02 per share. PSE&G's revenue was affected by weather conditions during the third quarter which was very mild relative to normal as well as relative to conditions in the year-ago quarter. On average, weather in the third quarter was 14% cooler than normal and 18% cooler than 2013's third quarter. The impact on demand from the mild weather reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.02 per share. PSE&G's earnings continue to benefit from a decline in financing cost which more than offset an increase in the level of debt on its balance sheet associated with higher levels of capital spending. The reduction in interest expense and a lower tax rate more than offset an increase in depreciation expense and netted to an increase in quarter-over-quarter earnings of $0.01 per share in the distribution business. Economic conditions in New Jersey, as evidenced by employment in the service territory continue to show signs of improvement. Adjusting for the weather, electric sales in the quarter grew by 0.4% and the improvement was led by an increase in demand from the residential sector and reflects some growth in the number of customers. On a year-to-date basis weather normalized electric sales grew by 1.1%. Weather normalized gas sales, while less impactful to results in the third quarter, advanced 1.9% in the quarter and 4% for the nine months ended September. Of course demand for gas continues to benefit from a decline in commodity prices and economic conditions. Customers will see a further decline in the commodity portion of their bills during the upcoming year. The BPU approved on a provisional basis an annual reduction of 9% in residential customer gas rate, that went into effect on October 1 of this year, and given the continued availability of low cost gas under the company's long-term supply arrangement PSE&G has since informed to BPU that it would be implementing an additional three months bill credit of 31% which would retire approximately $160 million to customers over the months of November, December and January of 2015. On the transmission front, PSE&G has filed for an update to its formula rate per transmission at the FERC. The update, which provides for a return on PSE&G's forecasted increase in its capital investment and transmission would increase 2015's annual transmission revenues by an estimated $182 million at the start of the New Year. You’ll recall that in 2014 we added a $171 million to our revenues which has resulted in year-to-date growth in earnings of $0.10 per share; something to keep in mind proportionally as you do our modeling for our filing for 2015. The BPU also found that all but $400,000 of PSE&G's $366 million of storm costs are prudent and recoverable in a future-based rate proceeding. The total spend breaks down as approximately a $126 million of major storm capital expenditures and incremental O&M of approximately $240 million. PSE&G is also awaiting a decision from the BPU on its request to invest approximately $100 million plus administrative cost on programs that would extend existing energy efficiency offerings in the residential multi-family, hospital and self-install markets. This program is not expected to have a major impact on customer rates and we expect a decision during the first half of next year. PSE&G is meeting its capital and operating benchmarks and earnings its authorized returns. For the year, we've made a slight modification to our forecast of PSE&G's operating earnings. The low end of the range has been increased to $710 million, bringing the rate -- excuse me -- bringing the range for operating earnings guidance to $710 million to $745 million from the prior $705 million to $745 million. Results for the remainder of the year will continue to reflect an increase in transmission and distribution revenue and a reduction in operating and maintenance expense, including importantly pension costs. With that let's now turn to Power. Power reported operating earnings for the third quarter of 2013 of $0.34 per share compared with $0.43 per share for the third quarter of 2013. Power's results reflect the full quarter impact of the scheduled reset in the average price received on PJM capacity as well as lower market prices for Energy. PJM capacity prices are reset to an average level of $166 per megawatt day on June 1 of 2014 from $242 per megawatt day in the prior capacity year. Recall that we enter a period where power's PJM fleet, based on the results of past auctions is expected to experience stable capacity prices in the range of $165 to $166 per megawatt day through May 31 of 2018. A decline in capacity revenues reduced Power’s quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.09 per share. Mild weather conditions relative to a year ago and lower gas prices resulted in a return to a more average [spot] spread for our region than those we experienced during the hot summer last year and that reduce quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.03 per share. A decline in Power's average hedge price for energy and lower market prices combined to further reduce quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.04 per share. Power's O&M expense was lower in the quarter relative to the level experienced in the year-ago quarter. The actions of major maintenance expense at the Bethlehem, New York facility in 2014 compared to the year ago quarter and lower nuclear outage related cost even with the impact of Salem’s extended outage in the quarter, combined with lower pension expense to improve Power's quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.06 per share. A reduction in the tax rate and the other miscellaneous items more than offset an increase in depreciation and interest expense to improve quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.01 per share. The availability of the Bethlehem, New York gas-fired combined cycle facility in 2014 led to a 4% improvement in the generating fleet’s output in the third quarter as production from the gas-fired combined cycle fleet increased 16% in the quarter to five terawatt hours or about 34% of output. Output of the nuclear fleet improved slightly from a year-ago levels. During the quarter the fleet operated at a capacity factor of 92% and produced 7.6 terawatt hours or about 52% of output. Production from the cold-fired and peaking units declined 8% during the quarter to 2.1 terawatt hours, about 14% of output due to planned outages as well as lower weather-related demand. Generation volumes in PJM overall were flat relative to year-ago levels. Power expects output for the full year to be approximately 53 to 55 terawatt hours. The forecast represents a slight increase in output on a year-over-year basis but is lower than our prior forecast for 2014 given year-to-date performance including the mild summer. Keep in mind we have scheduled fourth quarter outages at the Salem 1 and Peach Bottom 2 Nuclear facilities. Salem 1 begin a normal refueling outage earlier this month and Peach Bottom is undergoing work associated with its planned upgrade during a refueling outage. Approximately 80% to 85% of generation in the fourth quarter is hedged at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. The average price for energy hedges in the full year is approximately $48 per megawatt hour versus the average hedge price for energy in 2013 of about $50 per megawatt hour. Power’s maintaining its forecast of economic generation for both 2015 and 2016 at 55 to 57 terawatt hours per year. This represents an increase in output from 2014’s forecast. For 2015 Power has maintained its average hedge position at 65% to 70% of forecast generation at an average price of $50 per megawatt hour. You will recall that Power increased its hedge activity earlier in the year in response to higher market prices. The current level of hedges is consist with past practice and continues to assume BGS volumes represent about 11 terawatt hours of demand, in line with the 2014 forecast for BGS volumes. In 2016 Power has increased its average hedge position to approximately 35% to 40% of its generation from 30% to 35%. Hedges in 2016 have been transacted at an average price overall of $49 per megawatt hour compared with our prior update which indicated average hedge prices for 2016 of $51 per megawatt hour. The decline in the average hedge price for 2016 reflects an increase in non-BGS related hedges, all done at market prices since our last update and you will recall you have seen this pattern from us in prior periods as we increase the proportion of non-BGS hedges in the third year out the weighted average math of putting in hedges at market prices relative to the representation of BGS in that total, and remember BGS goes in at a full requirement price less capacity, normally brings down the weighted average hedge price as we move through the year. For example in 2016, last quarter BGS represented about 30% of the total amount that was hedged in our disclosures last quarter and now it’s closer to 25%. One thing to note is that the prices that the new hedges were put on, the market prices for the new hedges are actually slightly higher than the energy component of BGS that cleared in February of 2014. So again our normal pattern as we layer in market hedges post the clearing of BGS in February. We’ve narrowed our range for Power’s 2014 operating earnings guidance to $575 million to $610 million from the prior $550 million to $610 million with full year operating results expected to be at the upper end of the range. Results for the remainder of the year are expected to be influenced by the reset in the average price received on PJM capacity that we just talked about and the decline in the average price of energy. Power’s O&M expense for the fourth quarter is expected to compare favorably with year ago levels, given a reduction in pension expense and the absence of major outage related work. We anticipate O&M for the full year will be flat versus 2013’s level of expense and this estimate as always assumes normal weather and normal operations. As we notified you earlier this year Power discovered errors in its cost based bids for its New Jersey fossil generating units in the PJM energy market as well as additional pricing errors and differences between the quantity of energy that Power offered into the energy market and the amounts for which Power was compensated in the capacity market. We have since been verbally notified by the FERC staff that they have initiated a preliminary non-public staff investigation into the matters discovered by Power. The investigation could result in the FERC seeking disgorgement of any over collected amounts, civil penalties and non-financial remedies. Power has implemented procedures and continues to develop processes to mitigate the risk of similar issues occurring in the future and as is usual in matters of this nature FERC investigation may take an extended period of time to resolve. We have not by the way changed the reserve we took in the first quarter which still stands at $25 million. Let me now turn briefly to the Enterprise and all other; PSEG Enterprise/Other reported operating earnings of $22 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2014 versus an operating loss of $4 million, or a $0.01 per share during the third quarter of 2013. The results reflect the inclusion of earnings from the operating contract of PSEG Long Island as well as a reduction in tax expense. The conclusion of an Internal Revenue Service audit for the tax years’ 2007 through 2010 resulted in a $121 million cash refund and a reduction in tax expense. The reduction in taxes improved quarter-over-quarter earnings comparisons by $0.02 per share from the closure of the audit. In October PSEG Long Island update its original Utility 2.0 proposal which called for PSEG Long Island to invest up to $200 million over four years in programs that would expand energy efficiency, demand resources and distributed generation on Long Island. The updated proposal calls for an increase in the size of the program to $345 million. As currently proposed PSEG could fund all or some of increased program and compensation for the part that is funded by LIPA could be performance based. We anticipated a decision on the Utility 2.0 proposal by year end. On the financing side we ended the quarter with cash on hand of $703 million, the growth in PSE&G’s earnings and cash flow and the cash generated by Power continue to support our financing requirements without the need to issue equity. Debt represented 41.6% of our consolidated capital structure and 31.6% of Power’s capitalization at the end of September. As Ralph mentioned earlier we have narrowed the range of our 2014 operating earnings guidance to $2.60 and $2.75 per share and continue to expect earnings to fall at the upper end of that range. PSE&G remains on course to achieve double-digit growth in operating earnings during 2014 as its contribution to earnings is expected to exceed 50% of our forecasted earnings for the year. PSEG Power is expected to reported earnings at the upper end of the forecast range for the year. That concludes my remarks and at this point we are now ready for your questions and I will turn it back over to Brent.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question-and-answer session for members of the financial community. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from the line of Kit Konolige with BGC. Please go ahead with your question.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
Good morning, guys.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Good morning.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
A couple of related areas, first of all, can you give us a sense of what kind of response you’ve seen in New Jersey so far to -- as far as working with the commission and the authorities in general on 111(d)?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure, we had lots of communication [stuff this past] with New Jersey DEP. I think it’s pretty safe to assume that one of the areas they would be focusing on was the amount of credit or candidly the lack of credit given for nuclear output and the feeling that the cleaner states in our case are being somewhat penalized. Second area that I’d put sort of a lower priority the opportunity to perhaps expand the purview of 111(d) to touch upon things that are electric related but not specific to power plants in New Jersey. Our leading clause is get [permission] for transportation so the possibility of expanding 111(d) to include electric transport and the possibility of expanding 111(d) to include methane leakage fugitive emissions from the pipe [inaudible] combined cycle units. But I put those two issues, electric transportation and methane leakage as a distant second to the concern for the credit not given to nuclear.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
What, Ralph do you have any sense of our A; if there is been any responsiveness at the state level to crediting nuclear and B; what kind of form would you like that to see or can we reasonably expect that to see -- to appear as?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so I would say that it’s not much of an exaggeration to say that we are in lock step with the state on that perspectives on 111(d). As you know Kit we have a very clean fleet, nuclear typically is 55%, 57% of our yearly output, the third quarter was 52%. But as to the details of how that would manifest itself I am not sure I want to get into that on this call. We could certainly talk more about that hopefully in Dallas if you are at the [DEI] but there is no space that I am aware and hate to be absolutely definitive and say that there isn’t any at all between us and the state’s position but I have been briefed on this couple of times already and I think we’re in lock step with the state in terms of the…
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
Let me ask about one particular area. You used to be in Reggie and now you're not. So is that something you’d like to see reinstated?
Ralph Izzo:
No, it isn’t because as we’ve said many times we thought Reggie was a good idea to serve as a template for a national emissions trading program and appetizing Congress to begin a national program. It doesn’t seem wise for the state to diminish its economic competitiveness with respect to nearby states and joining Reggie.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
One other separate area…
Ralph Izzo:
Go ahead Kit.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
All right, last one. DR how do you expect that the play out? Obviously there are still legal issues pending. And then one way or another presumably PJM and FERC have to figure things out and possibly states as well.
Ralph Izzo:
So on DR I mean I know just what you and everyone else in the call knows about it right. I mean the court decisions were very comprehensive, very deterministic, it is positive on the issue I’m guessing I am inferring that the recent stay is just out of healthy degree of respect for FERC and the desire of the judicial branch to allow the executive branch to weigh its options, not at all reflection that the court decided that what they had previously ruled upon was any kind of back peddling whatsoever. So I think DR is likely to come out of energy and capacity markets in the future. Now PJM has gone on record saying that they are going to adjust for that, that they are going to look for ways to allow DR to effect the demand curve but I have got to believe that once that very transparent efficient market whereby DR providers are paid a revenue stream goes away, that that’s going to candidly diminish the amount of DR that’s available and remember RPM stands for reliability pricing model. That’s PJM’s number responsibility, reliability and if they will control the asset I don’t know how much they are going to be able to count on that. So you add that to the removal of the 2.5% hold back and I think all that weighs very positively for people with iron in the ground and generation assets that are there when needed.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners:
Great, thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ashar Khan with Visium. Please go ahead with your question.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management:
Good morning and congratulations. Can you just talk a little bit about the plant in Connecticut, if it gets into the auction when it comes online? And also on the Power’s investment in the pipe, when that comes into line as to when those would be helpful to earnings? If you can just remind us what the dates are on those things?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure Ashar. So the auction is in February I believe and it’s a three year forward. So it comes into service in 2018. I am not sure what month exactly but early -- first half of 2018. PennEast we have been publicizing a target date of November of ’17. We’ve also been emphasizing that it’s a Greenfield project. You could take those two emphases -- what’s the plural of emphasis - and infer your own startup date for PennEast, but it’s a Greenfield project and it will not be online before November of ’17. It wouldn’t surprise if it slips into ‘18.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management:
Okay. And Ralph, any other transmission or any other projects which can you just talk about or anything which might be on the drawing board which is not in the CapEx plan?
Ralph Izzo:
So I listed about $1.2 billion worth of project that are not in the CapEx plan and they range from Bridgeport Harbor to PennEast and I mentioned Artificial Island which is about $250 million in our re-submittal. And I am looking with a critical look at Kathleen and Carol to see whether or not we have publicly announced what we have put in the open window for PJM.
Kathleen A. Lally :
No.
Ralph Izzo:
We have not okay. So there are other things we are working on right now, nothing that’s staggering or tilts the balance sheet but we are always looking at ways to improve the system and we’ll definitely have an update for you on that in the not very distant future.
Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management:
Okay, thank you sir.
Kathleen A. Lally:
Thank you, next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
First off, good morning. Perhaps to follow-up on the last question. I was curious, how are you thinking about the Power strategy overall? I would just be curious the extent to which you are reinvesting potentially meaningful dollars in New England? Are there other markets, more broadly other asset types, again you have done a few solar projects, are we thinking about a scaling up of spend in this business at all just as a way to deploy dollars in your excess balance sheet?
Ralph Izzo:
So Julien good morning. We like the integrated model we love the regulated utility business, we love the power generation business. We look at every project, whether it’s a solar farm in California, we have closed on one recently, or bidding a combined cycle unit in New England or building more transmission on a discounted cash flow basis with different hurdle rates and make sure that they are NPV positive, that there is near-term visibility to the accretion and the balance sheet gives us room to do both in both businesses. So where there is no shortage of us strolling around looking for these opportunities and there is a long list of those we’ve walked from, because others had a different point of view of what the future held. But no, you shouldn’t interpret the Bridgeport Harbor project as any shift in our affection for the regulated utility or anything of that nature. I don’t know, Caroline you may want to add to that.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Absolutely and I think when we look at these kind of opportunities, as Ralph said, we are disciplined in looking at the NPV, using the right hurdle rates. I think the thing that makes us interesting in Bridgeport is you think about the capacity construct there and what they put in place giving a seven year incentive which really helps us think through how to make that work for new investment. So those kinds of constructs that truly can convert something really can encourage new investment and we think are very good.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
Excellent, and then turning to the BGS auction, can we talk briefly about the ability to pass through capacity, transitionally capacity increases as a result of the capacity performance scheme? And any ability from a regulatory perspective to have to shift the BGS contracts, they will allow that?
Ralph Izzo:
So that has not been decided formally at this point, Julien. I would point out that as Caroline mentioned a moment ago we have put in for a transmission formula rate adjustment of north of $180 million and the BPU has made it a policy that transmission increases are pass through. I believe there was a similar ruling on SREC issues a couple of years ago. So in general I think the BPU has recognized that if they want to continue to have a fully competitive active BGS market the things that are outside of the control of the BGS suppliers have to be adjusted on an as-go basis. But they have not opined specifically on an incremental capacity auction change that could come out of a PJM’s most recent concern over asset performance.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
But presumably that’s something you would be seeking?
Ralph Izzo:
Absolutely.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
And then lastly, just a quick one, energy efficiency and just the broad call it, LIPA plan. Can you talk about the incentive in terms of EPS, perhaps a bit more explicit range? Just to give us some kind of sense of what of this could ultimately drive?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so those details have yet to be worked out but it would safe to assume that they would in the same vicinity as what a regulated return would achieve if the investment had delivered upon the promise to operational performance, right. So don’t think of this as having an effective ROE of 20% or 30% and don’t think of it as something that would be south of 10%. It’s just okay if we think this LIPA is going to do X and it does X than in our eyes then that should have been a prudent investment but there is a slight increase in risk that’s taken as a result of that kind of mechanism.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
And just keep in mind as you are thinking about the modeling for Long Island and I know you know this but just to reinforce so we have $0.03 per share this year rising to $0.07 to $0.08 per share by 2016 and that does not include any potential uplift that we might get from these new proposals that we are making. So that’s the base contract that’s currently enforced something here would be additional.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
And a clarification there. Presumably you would achieve these targets over time such that you would not necessarily immediately hit the first year of the $345 million, the regulated return? Or is that…
Ralph Izzo:
The numbers we gave earlier Julien, our original program of $200 million, the expanded program of $345 million, both of those were four year programs. So you would not see all that programmatic emphasis or capital deployment take place in the first year, it would be over four years.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith – UBS:
All right. Okay so thank you.
Kathleen A. Lally :
Thank you. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Neel Mitra with Tudor Pickering. Please go ahead.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Hi, good morning. I had a question about the PennEast Pipeline and the off take agreements how does that benefit you, is it at the utility with lower gas prices for PSE&G or is it kind of lower gas prices to fill your combined cycle plans?
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning Neil so it’s the same exact sequencing of uses as we have today. So 125,000 to 150,000 bcf a day -- 125 bcf a day. So the priority customer would be the utility regulated distribution gas customer, they get first [chance] at that. Second would be off system sales and then lastly would be power used for burning in its plant. So what tends to happen under those three tiered prioritizations is that Power really doesn’t get to make a lot of use of that additional low cost gas in the winter months. A little bit more but not a lot in the spring as we start to refill for storage reasons but gets to use a whole bunch of it in the summer when storage is completed and there’s no heating demand. Right now Power is using about 25% -- about 25% of the gas the Power burns is from the [inaudible] region it could go up on a percentage basis from that.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Got it. Great, thank you and then secondly with the CCDT expansion in New England can you just generally give your thoughts on the New England market. It’s obviously gone very quickly from an oversupply to an undersupply and just wanted to get your thoughts on capacity and energy looking at that project?
Ralph Izzo:
So I think, there’s two things are important in New England market. Number one is what you just mentioned. They have gone through an undersupply condition as assets announced and carry through on their retirement. But number two is really what Caroline pointed out which is a risk reward profile has shifted to be a little bit saner when you’re making an investment and you want a recovery on your long run marginal cost not just your short run marginal cost. So the seven year capacity payment is extremely helpful there. I think the big question is the one that you hinted at in New England, that’s around energy markets, given the lack of infrastructure for natural gas into the region. You’re going to find people looking at assets that are near existing infrastructure and have a dual fuel capability and I'm pleased to say that we have both of those in our Bridgeport Harbor side we have both access to gas and we will go for dual fuel. Lastly on the capacity [margin] addition to the seven year construct, the change in the slope on demand curve allowing for return some of the missing money that plagued that region.
Neel Mitra - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.:
Hey great, perfect, thank you.
Kathleen A. Lally :
Thank you. Next question?
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Dan Eggers with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse:
Hey, good morning guys.
Kathleen A. Lally :
Good morning.
Ralph Izzo:
Good morning, Dan.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse:
Caroline I hate to bring up a number question on the call but when I look at the fourth quarter guidance for Power, kind of staying within the range of what you guys have for your guidance, basically it means you guys will earn somewhere between, I think $0.05 and $0.12 or $0.13, which is down quite a bit from prior years. Can you kind of walk me through what are the big drivers that’s going to lead to that much of a decline and then how we should think about that kind of for next year from a base line perspective?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
So thanks for the question Dan. We took up the bottom end of the range right, but we’ve also said that we expect to be at the high end of the range. The one thing I think you should always keep in mind as you do the quarter-over-quarter comparisons which you saw this quarter for the first time as the full quarter, right, last quarter was just a month, is capacity, right? So capacity on a quarter-over-quarter basis just like you saw this quarter is a $0.09 impact and so you have to start there right, that’s significant dollars, but of course we knew that. We took that into account in our guidance all the way through the year. So that’s the number one thing I would suggest that you consider. Of course going the other direction is we do expect favorability in the O&M, as I mentioned. So that’s going to go a little bit to positive direction and then the normal kind of unit operations, keep in mind we have Salem 1 and Peach Bottom outages which I mentioned during my remarks that Peach Bottom outage is a good one for us because it’s the EPU going into one of the units that will give us more megawatts for the future. So but those things obviously have an impact in the expected generation. So if you think about the pushes and pulls you’ve got Salem 1, you’ve got Peach Bottom in near term, before the winter period of course, you’ve got capacity at $0.09 going the negative direction, fully anticipated; you’ve got O&M going in the positive direction because full year we are guiding to about flat so you can pretty easily do the math. We were worse in O&M in the first two quarters, better in this quarter, anticipate to be better in the fourth quarter and then of course it’s just a normal operations and whatever the weather is at the beginning of the winter. So all in we still expect to be at that upper end of the range. We feel the bottom, but really haven’t changed our thinking which is with normal operations you’d see us be at the upper end, [which is what] drives the company to the upper end.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse:
Okay so the $0.23 or whatever it is you take out the $0.09 of capacity revenues, which will get you to kind of $0.14, which is above the implied range right now. There is some other maintenance issues that will bring you down toward the high end is that the right way to think about it?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yeah, that’s right, think about the outages I just mentioned but still consider us we’re talking about the high end of the range.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse:
Okay and then can we talk a little bit on the gas basis side, 25% of gas generation came from Leidy, how does the benefit of the basis arbitrage look full year, year-to-date ’14 versus ’13?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yeah, sure so the year-to-date not as strong as ’13. So let’s kind of wind back and look at what happened in ’13. We saw the Leidy differential really appear in ’13 at the end of the second quarter. And that Leidy differential became pretty wide as we got into the summer of 2013 and we talked about differentials being as much as $2. And then of course it was that warm weather and the warm weather is what drove and kept that differential from the Leidy price to the actual market price rate for the energy. This summer was quite different with the cooler weather on the CHI basis depending on weather compared to last year or normal 13% to 18% lower in terms of the weather. So extensive to the site CHI, what we actually have is Leidy gas costs are still lower the problem was for the summer with the lower demand and the cooler weather the differential of Leidy to thinking about where energy is priced in our market, looking at G6, [inaudible] that dropped those prices down. So what happened was the differential really collapsed. Leidy was still cheaper than Henry Hub but the differential moved together as opposed to last summer when it moved more widely apart because of the low demand for the power. Now keep in mind as we think about Leidy going forward you think about Leidy for us we have that access, it’s about 25% of Power’s overall gas usage as Ralph just mentioned and I think what we’re still expecting to see and you can see if you look at monthly data going forward is the choppiness to the pattern of how to think about basis. Just like we seen actually now for the last two winters the months make a difference so as we come into 2015 we still expect to see benefit from having Leidy, it’s really just about how that basis differential moves relative to power prices. And so the winter periods and the strong summer period we would still expect to see some basis differential on our favor. This was just a tough summer because the low demand led to the lower power prices, not because Leidy prices came up because power prices came down. Last year you may recall we had $0.03 from the Leidy benefit in the third quarter and that’s the $0.03 negative year-over-year I’m citing in this year’s third quarter that I attribute to weather. It’s really the spot spread going back to a normal level versus that expanded spot we had given the differential last summer.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse:
Thank you for that I appreciate it.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC:
Thank you very much. I guess my first question is at a proposed cost of about $600 million that would account to about 1330 per kw how confident are you in your ability to build at that level and I know that that others in the region have experienced a problems building in the Northeast?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah so, good morning Paul you’re obviously quoting around numbers, the team is running through details right now. We’re filing permit applications so we just think of that as one significant figure and not three significant figures in terms of the accuracy. I think the bigger challenges people had in terms of building has been access to gas. That’s been the number one concern and that one we have well in hand. But we don’t want to give you an exact amount on our -- on what kind of bids are we getting from folks in terms of engines. We’re just [continuing] to the back calculating what we might been in the option and that wouldn’t help anyone.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC:
And then Caroline, just a follow up on that last question, what would be the, you I think provided the quarter contribution as being zero this quarter versus $0.03 in the third quarter last year, what would be the year-to-date numbers on Leidy?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yeah so year-to-date numbers in terms of the gas benefit we had about $0.03 benefit in the first quarter, remember it was a strong winter so it’s about neutral on a year-to-date basis, about zero.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC:
And last year, year-to-date?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Last year when the Leidy differential really started to spread it was the end of the second quarter. So there really wasn’t sort of the first quarter of last year effect. So last year at this time it was about $0.03 and for the full year it was $0.05. But that included the fourth quarter so we haven’t got to the fourth quarter yet. So $0.05 full year, $0.03 to this point last year and this year it’s about neutral.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC:
Great and based on the modified CTA formula that was adopted by the NJ BPU what type of adjustment should we assume for PSE&G rate base if you were to use that methodology?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yeah, so we’re very pleased obviously with the decision we think it reflects the right balance from the perspective of the company and the rate payers. Thinking about our rate filing which would be made by November of 2017 and then the five year look back period. The impact for us is di minimus. So really not something you really should be thinking too much about as we think about our rate case numbers going forward because by that period if you take a five year look back you do the adjustment you do the 75:25 it’s truly di minimus.
Ralph Izzo:
And you back out transmission.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
And you back out transmission as well right.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC:
Great, thank you very much.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, next question.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Hi, can you hear me?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes Paul.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
You guys have a sort of unique position in New York and I was just wondering with the stuff going on there with the REV, I mean sort of really kind of transformative potential for change in regulation, what you guys see as potentially happening to energy and power prices in the state?
Ralph Izzo:
In New York State?
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Yeah well I mean you guys have LIPO, so I assume you guys are pretty focused on it.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
We don’t have it fully.
Ralph Izzo:
That’s a very complicated question.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, I apologize then, I mean just sort of directionally maybe?
Ralph Izzo:
Yeah well I think that a lot of the distributed resources that are being advocated, they are going to put upward pressure on prices for customers. I mean there are other reasons for doing things like with rooftop solar and offshore wind that’s being advocated just off of Long Island, and those are capturing some of the environmental benefits that are not baked in. Right now the missing [extra analogy] if you will. Having said that there are some other parts of the program, specifically energy efficiency which while they will also serve to increase rates they will bring overall bills down. So I think a lot depends upon how aggressive people want to be in making in-roads to capturing the benefits associated with the [extra analogies]. We are big advocates of this, both on Long Island and New Jersey but we never tell people that doing this stuff is going to lower their rates. It’s -- you’re getting a benefit you’re having to pay for it. So there are some things that we can do in terms of making sure that some of the reinforcements of that would have to be made in the distribution system are foregone or delayed as a result of perhaps some peak shaving or some broader demand response programs that we can target. And there are some parts on Long Island I think it’s on the South Fork where there’s been a significant growth in peak demand and otherwise command the need for some infrastructure that we will be able to delay. But it really is a much more complicated question than simply gee, we’re doing this to lower everyone’s bills and lower everyone’s rates. The answer really depends on what this is and how aggressive one wants to be on that sort of green agenda.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay fair enough and then just on the -- as you know RPM has been controversial in the past and New Jersey has been sometimes apprehensive about it and I'm just wondering we’ve had several changes with the BPU and we’ve had the potential for several changes happening with DR and capacity performance and everything else, how would you describe the political situation or the general regulatory environment vis-à-vis these issues now as it was in comparison to maybe when the MOPR and the ALCAP issue was going on?
Ralph Izzo:
A good question Paul, yes so we had a bit of a change at the BPU. It was all due respect to the commissioners who’ve gone off. We have two new commissions who are quite astute about both energy policy in the form of President Mroz and in terms of the technology strength, weaknesses, limitations in the form of Former Assemblyman Chivukula. He’s a Nautical Engineer by training. He has spent 20 years at Bell Labs. This is a very, very intelligent man who understands the complexity of capital in terms of infrastructure and Rick is well known entity in policy circles in New Jersey and he has actually worked in the energy sphere in the past. So I think that those are two strong additions to balance the BPU. The world is very different now from where it was in El Cap where in the ALCAP days you had strong basis differentials West to East. You have a coal dominated West, the gas dominated East and people were always scratching their heads saying we don’t understand why we pay so much in New Jersey and sadly last month basis was the other way around. It was lower in the West than it was in the East and gas has kind of changed that whole dynamic and I think as a result you’ll see people realizing that the market is working, it’s doing what it’s supposed to do and prices are going to be going up for everybody I believe, and this is a new RPM market as the missing money, appropriately gets restored. So no one likes to pay high prices for energy, there’s no [inaudible] bucks around that but no one wants to see the lights go out either, we came dangerously close in ’14 and a similar winter in ’15 and they probably would go out. So I think PJM is doing the right thing in trying to address that and New Jersey knows that PJM has done a better job than just about any place in the country in making sure those lights stay on.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Great, thanks a lot.
Kathleen A. Lally :
I think operator that’s all the time we have for questions. I’ll turn it over to Ralph for just some closing comments and see you at…
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks Kathleen. So just wanted to reinforce three messages or comments made by Caroline and me earlier. First of all the utility growth story is very much intact and not only is it doing what we said would do this year but following it for is very much exactly on where we said we would be for 2015. Secondly, hopefully you are as impressed by Power’s diverse asset base as we are in terms of not only its strong performance in current markets whatever the gas prices are doing, whatever coal prices are doing but also how strong a performance it is and how well positioned it is even as we look forward to the ever changing environmental rules and market design parameters. I think we have dual fuel capability, we have units that strong and high capacity factors, all of them have a great position in the CP market if the risk reward profile are in the details as we go forward, is done sensibly and I have every reason to believe that PGM moves you that sensibly. So growth story intact, with the utility Power’s diverse asset base once again demonstrating its strength and last but by no means least the balance sheet remains as strong as ever. So as Kathleen said we look forward to seeing you in days ahead and hopefully for most of us that means the [Inaudible]. Thank you for your time today.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect. And thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President of Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President, Chairman of Executive Committee, Chairman of PSEG Power LLC, Chairman of Public Service Electric & Gas Company, Chief Executive Officer of PSEG Power LLC and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Electric & Gas Company Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Skyler, and I am your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference, Public Service Enterprise Group Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, July 30, 2014, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on August 8, 2014. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead
Kathleen A. Lally:
Thank you, Skyler. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for participating in PSEG's earnings call this morning. As you are aware, we released our second quarter 2014 earnings statements earlier today, and as mentioned, the release and attachments are posted on our website at www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. Our 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2014, is expected to be filed shortly. I don't go through and read the entire disclaimer statement or the comments we have on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results, but as you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update those statements from time-to-time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even if our estimate changes, unless we of course are required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or other filings for a discussion of the factors that may cause those results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations, as well as for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I am now going to turn the call to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group; and joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. At the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2014 of $0.49 per share, and that's to be compared with $0.48 per share earned in 2013 second quarter. The results for the quarter bring operating earnings for the first half of 2014 to $1.50 per share compared with operating earnings of $1.33 per share earned in 2013's first-half. Slides 4 and 5 contain the detail on the results for the quarter and the first half. The several results for the quarter are noteworthy. We continue to see benefits to earnings from the increased deployment of capital into our regulated company. Now that's primarily in the form of transmission infrastructure, and we're completing major projects on time and on budget. From our perspective, we're delivering on the promise both for earnings growth and improvement in reliability associated with this multibillion-dollar investment program. We've been able to supplement that growth with a continued focus on controlling O&M costs, and supported rate mechanisms have allowed us to earn the authorized return on our regulated companies investment program. The improvement in earnings from our regulated company, PSE&G, offset the impact of mixed operating conditions during the quarter on Power's results. The costs related to the extended outages at the sale of 2 nuclear facility and the gas-fired Linden combined cycle station, mask the underlying strength of Power's operations. The down time at Linden during the quarter was longer than planned and associated with extensive work being done to test and complete the installation of equipment which has led to a 63-megawatt increase in the station's capacity. During the recent refueling outage at Salem, we discovered the need to make repairs to Salem 2's 4 reactor coolant pumps. The refueling outage was extended approximately 60 days to complete the necessary repairs and the unit was returned to service on July 14. The decision to keep the unit out of service is not made easily. However, only by taking steps necessary in the short term in support of operational excellence were the key assets such as Salem be available on the reliable basis to provide substantial value for years to come. I'm pleased to report that both Linden and Salem 2 have been operating essentially flawlessly since they returned to service. Keeping a focus on operational excellence is the primary means of assuring our customers and regulators that we operate our assets in a safe and reliable manner. We have begun the work recently approved by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to protect and strengthen PSE&G's electric and gas distribution systems against severe weather conditions. The $1.22 billion Energy Strong investment program represents an initial phase of work designed to upgrade and improve the resilience of our system, and we intend to work with our regulators and other parties to consider additional measures at a later date. This is an opportune time to pursue these investments. Major surcharges on customers' electric bills are scheduled to expire over the next 2 years and the bills for PSE&G's gas customers continue to benefit from the capable management of the company's gas supply, storage and transportation contracts. In fact, PSE&G has filed for a further 9% reduction in the gas rate paid by residential customers. The reduction, which would be effective in time for this year's heating season will be the latest in a series of reductions, which have lowered the customer's gas bills by 44% in the past 5 years. The availability of low-cost gas in the Marcellus Basin and the lack of infrastructure to move the gas to market has been a source of volatility in the Power markets. Power's combined cycle assets in PJM enjoy an economic advantage given actions to low-cost supplies in the Marcellus, particularly during the summer period. As a practice, we don't, and as you will know, forecast results for PSEG's Power beyond the current year and outside of what is implied by the market prices. But we will make note of some consistent improvement in demand that is showing up here in our region. The results of PJM's recent capacity auction point to an improving market environment with the retirement of older, inefficient generating capacity as environmental rules take effect. Power's assets in PJM will also once again receive a price that continues to reflect our assets value given their location relative to load. So for the next 4 years, Power's assets will receive a price for capacity of approximately $166 per megawatt day. The Power markets have gained greater clarity on another key environmental priority. We are pleased that the Environmental Protection Agency has issued its ruling on cooling water, commonly referred to as Section 316b. The agency's ruling substantially addresses many of our concerns, and we are working with the appropriate state environmental agencies on permitting of our affected units. On another environmental matter, the EPA also released its proposed rules concerning a reduction in CO2 from existing generating units. We are supportive of the administration's efforts to enforce the Clean Air Act. Power has made the necessary investments to meet existing air quality environmental requirements and although we expect it may take some time to implement final rules regarding carbon, given the complexity of the proposal, Power's fleet should benefit given the generation profile that is almost 60% carbon-free. Before I conclude, I want to bring you up-to-date on matters relating to Power's trading arm, energy resources and trade, which we commonly refer to as ER&T. As you recall, we indicated with our release of first quarter results that Power informed FERC, PJM and the Independent Market Monitor of PJM that it found errors in some components of its cost base bids for its New Jersey fossil generation units. We began an internal investigation and has since notified FERC, PJM and the IMM that we identified and corrected additional errors. We are working with the appropriate parties but cannot provide you with a timetable as to when this issue will be resolved or whether or not we will be required to recognize another charge against Power's earnings. We take pride in our performance, and candidly, we did not live up to our own standards of applying sufficient rigor in this area, but I can assure you that we corrected all identified errors and we are instituting new processes and controls to reduce the likelihood of a recurrence of this situation. This issue does not change the strong underlying operating performance of Power's fleet of assets that continue to provide solid earnings and good cash flow, given the fleet's favorable location close to load, its dispatch flexibility and fuel diversity. Despite Power's strengths, we have nonetheless changed the profile of our earnings over the past several years. Our investment program focused on improving the reliability in expanding the transmission system has yielded the anticipated outcomes. PSE&G remains on course to achieve double-digit growth in operating earnings during 2014 as its contribution to earnings is expected to exceed 50% of our forecast for the year. The Energy's strong related capital investment provides further support for our forecast of double-digit growth in PSE&G's rate base and earnings over the next several years. Given the strength of Power's operations in the first half of the year and the growth of PSE&G, we feel comfortable saying we expect operating earnings for the full year to be at the upper end of our range of guidance of $2.55 to $2.75 per share, assuming normal weather and operations. The growth in our capital program doesn't diminish the strength of our financial position and our balance sheet. We remain well-positioned to deploy our balance sheet strength to meet shareholder objectives for long-term growth. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline, who will discuss our financials in greater detail
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Thank you, Ralph and thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2014 of $0.49 per share versus operating earnings of $0.48 per share in last year's second quarter. We provide you with the reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter on Slide 4. We've also provided you a waterfall chart on Slide 10 that takes you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business and a similar chart on Slide 12 that provides you with the changes in operating earnings by each business on a year-to-date basis. So I'll now review each company in more detail, starting with PSE&G. PSE&G reported operating earnings for the second quarter of 2014 of $0.30 per share compared to $0.24 per share for the second quarter of 2013, and results for the quarter are shown on Slide 14. PSE&G's operating earnings continue to benefit from an increase in revenue associated with an expansion of its capital program and tight control of its operating costs. PSE&G's results for the quarter were also aided by a reduction in financing costs as weather normalized sales growth, which remains consistent in the slowly improving economy. A FERC approved increase in PSE&G's transmission revenue under the company's formula rate was effective on January 1 of 2014. The increase supported a quarter-over-quarter improvement in the net earnings contribution from transmission of $0.03 per share. Weather conditions during the quarter were unfavorable relative to normal and in comparison to conditions experienced in the year-ago quarter. And these conditions reduced quarterly earnings comparisons by $0.01 per share and offset the favorable impact on earnings from continued growth and demand for gas. PSE&G's focus on controlling the growth and operating expenses, including a decrease in pension expense, led to an improvement in quarter-over-quarter earnings of $0.02 per share. And although the level of debt on PSE&G's balance sheet has grown consistent with the expansion of its capital program, the actual overall cost of debt has declined as a result of the refinancing of higher cost debt and a decline in interest rates. This reduction in financing cost improved earnings comparisons quarter-over-quarter by $0.01 per share. The service area continues to experience a slow improvement in underlying economic conditions. Sales data for the first half of the year, which in general is more reflective of trends than quarterly data, indicate weather-normalized demand for gas grew by 4.4% as decline in prices and an improvement in the economy continue to support demand. Weather normalized electric sales increased by 1.6% during the first-half. Demand from residential customers grew in line with customer growth of about 0.5% as demand from the commercial and industrial sectors improved by 2.1% and 1.7% respectively over the 6-month period. The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities or BPU, approved PSE&G's Energy Strong settlement during May. The agreement calls for PSE&G to invest $1.22 billion over the next 3 to 5 years to improve the resiliency of its electric and gas grid. The addition of Energy Strong brings PSE&G's 5-year capital program to approximately $11.3 billion versus our prior forecast of $10.1 billion in spending over the 2014 to 2018 time period, and will provide further support for our double-digit earnings growth in PSE&G's rate base as we've mentioned before. PSE&G's operating earnings increased to 22% during the first half of the year and supports maintenance of our forecast for a growth in operating earnings for 2014 to $705 million to $745 million. Results for the remainder of the year will continue to reflect an increase in transmission revenue and a reduction in operating and maintenance costs, including pension expense. Let's now turn to Power. PSEG Power reported operated earnings of $0.17 per share for the second quarter of 2014 compared with operating earnings of $0.24 per share for the second quarter of 2013. The decline in Power's results for the quarter is the result of the impact on production and O&M expenses associated with the extended outage at the Salem 2 nuclear facility and the maintenance outage at the Linden gas-fired combined cycle facility during which we also upgraded the equipment to increase that station's capacity. Power's quarterly earnings comparisons continue to benefit from a net increase in capacity revenue. Power received capacity prices of $242 per megawatt day during the first 2 months of the quarter versus $153 per megawatt day in the year-ago period before capacity prices reset to $166 per megawatt day effective June 1 of this year. This net increase in capacity prices improved quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.04 per share. The capacity price benefit plus benefits from lower cost gas offset a decline in average hedge prices and the negative impact from relatively lower market prices in the East resulting from transmission and generation outages outside of our region. Incremental production at the coal-fired and peaking stations partly offset the lower production due to the outages at Salem 2 and the completion of the capacity upgrade work at Linden. The net reduction in output however reduced earnings quarter-over-quarter by $0.03 per share. Operation and maintenance expense, or O&M expense, was higher than the year-ago quarter. Again, the costs associated with the outage in operating work at Linden and the repair at Salem more than offset the benefit from a lower pension expense and altogether, reduced quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.04 per share. An increase in depreciation expense was offset by a reduction in the tax rate and other miscellaneous items. Output from Power's fleet was 5% lower in the second quarter compared to year-ago levels. Power determined in mid-May at the conclusion of Salem 2's normal refueling outage that was necessary to extend the outage to inspect and repair the reactor's cooling pumps. The unit was returned to service on July 14. The extended outage reduced the nuclear fleet's output in the quarter by 9% to 6.5 terawatt hours, 54% of our generation, and lowered the nuclear fleet's average capacity factor in the quarter to 80.5%. Production from the gas-fired combined cycle fleet declined 11% in the quarter to 3.6 terawatt hours, 30% of the production -- 30% our production as Linden was out of service early in the quarter to complete maintenance and the work associated with the 63 megawatt increase in the unit's capacity which is now in place. Production from the coal-fired and peaking units increased to 27% to 1.9 terawatt hours or 16% of generation, with improved market economics. Power was able to meet its hedged obligations from its on generation despite the decline in output given the fleet's net long position and the availability of the coal-fired units. Power has reduced the upper end of its forecast of output for the full year to 56 to 57 terawatt hours from the previous 56 to 58 terawatt hours to take into account the results for the second quarter. Our forecast, which represents an increase in output for the year of 4% to 6% continues to assume normal operations in weather. Approximately 70% to 75% of generation for the second half of the year is hedged at $50 per megawatt hour. Power has slightly increased its forecast of economic generation for 2015 and 2016 to 55 to 57 terawatt hours per year from the previous 54 to 56 terawatt hours to take into account normal operations and our estimates of a economic dispatch. Power's taking advantage of the strength in market prices earlier this year to hedge a gas-fired combined cycle fleet into the third quarter, and also increase the percent of generation hedged in 2015 and '16 to the upper end of the normal limits that we would normally see at this time. That's in order to take advantage of some opportunities we saw for locked-in heat rate and spark spread. Liquidity has improved somewhat into 2016, but generally speaking, we can think of liquidity as poorer the further you get beyond 2015. Power's combined cycle fleet also benefits in the summer months from its access to low-cost Marcellus gas. Economics are particularly compelling, as gas prices have declined more than Power prices, which has allowed Power to do that key heat rate lock in. For 2015, Power has hedged 65% to 70% of its forecast generation at an average price of $50 per megawatt hour. For 2016, Power has hedged approximately 30% to 35% of its generation at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. The hedge data for 2015 also reflects a change in our forecast of the BGS volumes. As a result of the extreme volatility in market prices for energy experienced earlier in the year, we have seen some return of customers to the BGS contract but not a lot. So our forecast for 2015 now assumes BGS volumes represent 11 terawatt hours of demand, more in line with the forecast volumes for 2014 than our prior forecast which had assumed BGS volumes of 10 terawatt hours as we move into 2015. As Ralph mentioned, we are working with FERC, PJM and the Independent Market Monitor, or IMM, to determine the impact of identified errors in our bidding processes. We recorded a charged operating earnings of $25 million or $0.03 per share in the first quarter based on the information available at that time. On discovery of the errors, we initiated an investigation and identified additional errors in our bids and further determined that the quantity of energy that Power offered into the day ahead energy market for its fossil peaking units differed from the amounts for which Power was compensated in the capacity market for those units. Based on information currently available to us, we've generally not seen an impact on our realtime operations for these units. We informed the FERC, PJM and the IMM of these additional issues and we have corrected these errors. We have not recorded an additional charge to income in the second quarter over the amount we reserved earlier this year. PSEG doesn't have access to PJM's proprietary data to determine if the differences in quantity have had any impact, and if so the level of that impact. However, FERC has the authority to investigate the matter, which could result in FERC seeking disgorgement of any over-collected amounts, civil penalties and non-financial remedies. The forecast range of Power's operating earnings for 2014 remains unchanged as $550 million to $610 million with full year operating earnings expected to be at the upper end of the range, assuming normal weather and normal unit operations. Our forecast includes all of the issues we just discussed, including the $0.03 per share charge in the first quarter related to the items I just discussed. Results for the remainder of the year will be influenced by a reset in the average price received on PJM capacity to $166 per megawatt day, which started in June, from the $242 per megawatt day we've seen previously, as well as a decline in the average price of energy hedges. O&M expense is expected to compare favorably in the second half of the year given a reduction in pension expense and the absence of major outage-related work in the year-ago period. For the full year, however, Power's O&M is expected to be flat against 2013's experience, given the increased cost associated with the extended outages. Let me now turn briefly to PSEG Enterprise and Other. Operating earnings for PSEG Energy Holdings/Enterprise in the second quarter of 2014 were $7 million, rounded about $0.02 per share versus operating earnings of $2 million or basically breakeven results during the second quarter of 2013. The results for 2014 reflect the inclusion of earnings from PSEG Long Island's operating contract and the absence of some charges in the year-ago quarter. PSEG Long Island filed its first Utility 2.0 proposal on July 1 of this year. The proposal calls for investing $200 million in energy efficiency, demand response programs, distributed generation and related programs over a 4-year period beginning in 2015, and we expect a response to our proposal by year end. We continue to forecast full year operating earnings for PSEG Enterprise and Other of $35 million to $40 million. Just a brief note on financing, during the quarter, PSE&G issued a total of $500 million of medium-term notes consisting of $250 million of 5 year notes at 1.8% and 30-year notes of 4%. These funds will be used in PSE&G's capital requirements. PSE&G's capital budget is currently 15% to 20% greater than what we told you in the spring and is now expected to approximate $11.3 billion over the 5-year period from 2014 to 2018, which brings our plans for our consolidated PSEG capital spending to $13 billion over that same period. We ended the quarter with debt representing 42% of consolidated capital. The improvement in PSE&G's earnings and cash flow, as well as our continued strong earnings and cash generated by Power support our financing requirements without the need to issue equity. And while I think we've demonstrated with the growth in PSE&G's capital program, we continue to seek opportunities to deploy our investment capacity to drive growth. We continue to forecast operating earnings for the full year of $2.55 to $2.75 per share, but we do anticipate the results for the full year to be at the upper end of our range, assuming normal weather and normal unit operations. And with that, we're ready for your questions. So Skyler, I'll turn it back to you.
Operator:
. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Kit Konolige with BGC.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Caroline, you just mentioned that the company continues to see opportunities to redeploy cash flow to drive growth. Can you -- certainly, transmission investments are one major area there. Maybe you can outline for us, are there other areas that you see -- and Energy Strong, I guess, I should say as well. So those strike me as the 2 big buckets. What else should we be looking for, and are there other arenas that you're considering that may not be front and center now but could be an afterburner effect later on?
Ralph Izzo:
I'm sorry to disappoint you, but Ralph will answer, actually. So we only talked about things that are fully baked but before this question comes up so often, I'll just give you a couple of examples. We have been in conversation with the BPU staff about the modest, by our definition, modest $100 million energy efficiency program. Ralph Larosa is the incoming Chair of the American Gas Association. He was in DC yesterday where he heard nothing but concerns expressed by the Obama administration and many other attendees on methane emissions, fugitive methane emissions from gas pipes and our BPU has fiscally [ph] supported, I guess, cast iron maintenance infrastructure replacement program and you will probably see that as the first thing in Energy Strong that we go in for an increase on. We had our first public hearing on Long Island over Utility 2.0, with $200 million program we've put in, and I would say that if there was one message that came from that meeting, it was that we were being too timid and it needed to be bigger. Now that's only one of several hearings that we'll have on the subject. We get a chance to refresh that proposal in October. So the onset belief came out just this past month, if I'm not mistaken, usually comes out in June, I shouldn't say why those come out in June this year and will be looking at PJM open window on some of the problems identified in there. I don't want to give a number there because I just heard from Ralph only a day ago on that, and that number moves around depending on the engineering analysis. So I just mentioned a few things that all start with 9 figures, and as Caroline mentioned, I think our 5-year capital program increased by 50% from last year to this year, and it's now up by 23% between March and July. So I don't want to guarantee that that's what will happen on the next quarterly call, but we don't seem to be running out of infrastructure needs in this region.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
And just to focus on one item of infrastructure. Can you give us the outlook for the Artificial Island project with the reconsideration now and how we mark our scorecards to see this going forward?
Ralph Izzo:
Well, I was hoping that you would have the answer for that. I mean, this is witnessing the making of sausage, the making of law, and the making of everything else. I mean in defense of PJM and they don't need me to defend them, this is a brand-new tariff in response to brand-new regulation in a first-time major process. So we're seeing growing pains. I would be less than 100% candid if I didn't express disappointment at the board's action last week. Having said that, what the board said is they are are inviting the finalists and we are one of the 4 finalists down from whatever the original number was which is the number I think at least double that and they want some more information. I don't even know the exact nature of the additional information they want. I do know that we're going to do $2.2 billion of transmission this year on top of $1.6 billion of transmission last year and we've got a great team who will be able to answer any one of those questions and outshine the competition. I think it's just growing pains of a brand-new tariff and a brand-new program that PJM is experiencing right now.
Operator:
And the next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with UBS.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
So perhaps going back to the Energy Strong side of the equation, just following up there. I mean, obviously there's a number of things that didn't ultimately get put into that package. Is their potential of going back and pick up some of those last items and kind of the reflect that in your CapEx year at some point?
Ralph Izzo:
So the answer to that, Julien, is yes. I think if could steer you in certain directions, it's more likely that we'll go in first on the gas side because that work is expected to be complete in a 2 to 3-year timeframe. And just the fact that notwithstanding that, that will be our fourth request for gas infrastructure improvement, these things take many months to get approved. So we wouldn't wait until we were running out of work, and I'm sorry, running out of approval because there's no chance that we'll run out of work. On the substation work, that really is scheduled to go 5 years and candidly, we were not convinced that given the amount of transmission work that we have and the 29 switching and substations that we plan to work on that we want to put the system much more in configuration that is as tenuous as it would be with all that electrical work going on. Some of the stuff that went away was making the distribution system smarter. That one is a little tougher to predict. So a little bit of a long-winded answer, but the short answer is there's no doubt that before the 3 to 5 year period is up, we will be back in and my prediction today would be that we would be back in on the gas pipe replacement first and foremost.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Any sense of magnitude there, or is it still too early to expect?
Ralph Izzo:
We intended to talk about $200 million to $300 million a year is about the size of the program we can reasonably manage. If there were emergency issues, which we do not have, you'd somehow find a way to do more than that, but right now the emergent issue that seems to be coming up is the order of magnitude increase in greenhouse gas effect that comes from fugitive methane emissions and the desire and the policy circles, fairly prominent policy circles, to do more about that.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
And then going back to the Artificial Island side of the equation, just to be clear, is this really about capital cost and who can deliver the cheapest project? Is that where this is headed? I mean it's tough to tell obviously or is this about terms, conditions ultimately indicating that you can partner with or someone else can get involved in your territory?
Ralph Izzo:
I think it's more the former, but simply answering the question that way oversimplifies it. I mean, these are complicated engineering solutions to a sophisticated set of infrastructure assets in the infrastructure. So it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that just because a project is less expensive than another, that it is preferred from a consumer point of view. That's the equivalent to saying, gee, I could buy that car for $10,000 and that car for $100,000, I should buy the $10,000 car and then you fail to recognize that but no you need the $100,000 crane because you're in the construction business and the $10,000 smart car isn't going to quite help you be able to move that equipment around. I'm sure I don't have the right brands and dollar amounts there, but you know my point that these are not commodity services, these are sophisticated engineering services. The terms and conditions issue that you allude to is, I think, it's fairly well-understood that some people have come in after the process, who said we will guarantee a price. Well, the prudent buyer would say, let me understand that guarantee. Is it bumper to tail pipe? Is it just the drivetrain which doesn't fall apart? But for $200,000 miles and now you've extended the warranty from 15,000 to 75,000 miles? So there are some terms and conditions element, there are some pricing elements and I think that's why the PJM board simply said, gee, we're getting a little bit more noise in the system then we'd like to under first time in a project and I don't mean to speak for the PJM board, I don't have that ability. But let's just ask more questions. They did not come out and say you picked the wrong project by any stretch of the imagination. They just want more information on those issues that you implied would be front and center.
Operator:
Your next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
There was some discussion surrounding the Tepco acquisition and, of course, you guys are located in New Jersey, and I'm sure you guys are aware of the press reports. I'm just wondering sort of philosophically if you look at the potential amount of leverage that might be used in that transaction, and what you're seeing with respect to the discussion with CTA in New Jersey? Is there any change or thoughts that you guys might have in terms of leverage over the long-term at public-service?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, Paul, it's Caroline, thanks for your question. So yes, obviously, saw what Exelon said in terms of how they were financing that acquisition. So part of that, I guess I'd characterize, not really surprising. We look at our own balance sheet, and we obviously are always in discussions with the rating agencies. Given the fact that we don't have any parent leverage, right, we have the occasional commercial paper but our long-term debt is at our operating companies. We talked about investment capacity. We tend to talk to you about Power and Power's debt-to-cap profile, where that stands at the end of the period and what its investment capacity is, but we've always recognized that we do have incremental investment capacity at the parent that we could deploy and in conversations with the rating agencies, the deployment for that to regulated, right, investment is something that works very well. So the way I look at that is given where Power's performance has been, and as I think we know where the company ended the quarter and Power,of course, ended the quarter debt-to-cap at 32%, there's significant amount of capacity at Power but there also is that parent-related investment capacity. And so when we talk about things internally in terms of opportunities, some of the things that Ralph was mentioning earlier, we look at that from the perspective of having a balance sheet that has a lot of room not just a room for Power but also the room for parent if it's oriented toward regulated. So maybe that was the first largest announcement of use of that kind of capacity that we've seen, but we recognize that we have it as well. And, of course, continuing to run our businesses appropriately and keeping the right capital structure at PSE&G, et cetera, and then seeking out regulated opportunity. So If I look at that is just, we're reinforcing the fact that we have ample room.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
And then with respect to this PJM Independent Marketing Monitor stuff, I wasn't completely clear exactly what you guys indicated happened. It suggested that there were some additional pricing areas in the cost based bids that were identified with the quantity of energy that Power offered into the energy market that's differed from the amount that Power was compensated in the capacity market for those units, I'm just trying to get an idea, what does that actually sort of mean for somebody who's a little bit less sophisticated on what actually happened, I guess.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes, so you had it right in terms of -- in the first quarter we talked about the cost base bids and then the incremental information that we identified during this quarter was other errors but also this capacity issue. And so sort of trying to say it again. So we had -- we offer, of course, our units into the day ahead energy market, we offer an amount of megawatts into the day ahead energy market and what we have seen is, at times, we did not offer the capacity into the day ahead energy market that was equivalent to the amount of capacity that we have, we were getting paid for from the capacity auction results. So as I said, generally speaking, what I'm talking about is offering into the day ahead market, that differential, not generally speaking impact on the realtime operation of the unit. So it's about the bidding in the day ahead generally speaking more than it is about the operation in the realtime. So it's a differential. And then as I said we're in the process of investigating that, doing the analysis and working with the IMM and PJM and we've informed FERC. This day ahead, this issue about the capacity difference you may recall I mentioned in my remarks it's about our peakers. So not about all of our units, but our fossil peaking units in the day ahead market.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay, I got you. And then just, finally, the methane emissions issue and the policy objective and the opportunity, you mentioned now, I think this might start within 9 figures. Could you just give a little bit more of a flavor of sort of the total opportunity that might be involved in that? I noticed there's other stuff that was coming out yesterday from the DOE and I just supposed, I was thinking about this, I mean, anymore you can share with us about what that could possibly mean? These methane leaks, sort of plugging them up and the benefit there?
Ralph Izzo:
We have, I think, 4,000-miles of cast iron main pipe needs to be replaced. I don't know the mount of bare steel pipes that we have, that needs to be replaced and typically speaking, what Energy Strong had how much, for how many miles?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
We're doing 350 for Energy Strong 1.4 million per mile.
Ralph Izzo:
It's about $1.4 million per mile, Paul. If you take that 4,000 miles and multiply by 1.4 million that you get up really rough ballpark. Yes there's $350 million in Energy Strong to replace 250 miles.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
For the methane escape issue, isn't that sort of a climated issue that is separate from Energy Strong, I thought there was an additional amount [ph]?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, yes, yes, that's correct, I was connecting 2 disparate thoughts. So we've been on a long-standing program to replace our cast iron main because it is the oldest part of our gas distribution system. It's the leakiest part of our gas distribution system. It doesn't have any safety consequences from the point of view of high-pressure, it's a low pressure, low utilization system. But just from a point of view of good operational practices, you don't want leaky pipes. What's been added to the calculation of why it's important to do it is concerned over the greenhouse gas effect associated with methane being, I think, I've read estimates of 30 to 35x more impactful per pound of CO2. So that's just an added impetus for a program that's been underway for many years now to replace the cast iron main.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
So you don't have a dollar number sort of?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, if you want to replace all 4,000 miles, you can multiply....
Operator:
Next question is from Dan Eggers from Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Just can you maybe give us an update or is there a way to quantify how much benefit you guys saw in the second quarter because of the advantaged gas supply contracts in Power and how should we think about maybe the benefit in the third quarter this year versus last year, seeing how wide based it is today?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, Dan, thanks for the question. Not much impact in the second quarter. So about a penny, even that's rounded into the numbers I gave you relative to overall pricing impacts, so offsetting capacity upsides. That's not surprising to us. Remember, we talked about last year in the second quarter was when we actually first saw this differential come into play, and actually it had a similar impact in last year's second quarter again rounding to about $0.01. You may remember with the third quarter that we actually talked more about it because of the summer season we had a nice warm summer last year you had the supply demand imbalance, more supply trying to get onto the pipe, right. And so the differential widened out and we got about $0.03 a share benefit in the third quarter. So not surprising in the shoulder season and, of course, this is a season where we haven't had as warm of weather as we would normally have at the end of the second quarter, it's cooler than normal and cooler than last year, you're not seeing a lot of that benefit, not surprising you won't see as much. So differential for Leidy is ranging and looking a little bit ahead $0.50 to $1 right now, just given supply demand issues as people refill storage. That's not surprising. We saw it depending on those supply demand conditions, you can see that bases really move around. So we still think we're obviously, we're well positioned and whenever we can capture that advantage, we will take it and you'll see it come through our numbers. Can't really forecast obviously the rest of this quarter, we have to see what the summer turns out to be, it was cool in my house this morning, I don't know about yours, but we'll see how that goes. But we still have that Evergreen opportunity on the pipeline with those contracts that Power has, residential customer of course, gets first claim that's why you don't hear us talk about it in winter right because the residential customers using it for heating, but in the summer where there is obviously not as much heating demand we can get that benefit. So I still think it's something you should look to us to try to capture whenever we can. We'll report on how we do at the end of the summer in the third quarter, but as I said, not surprising that 2Q is about the same as last year's 2Q and again a reminder that advantage Power has is an evergreen advantage over all, you may remember last year we said about 25% of the gas that we use for our generation on a net basis, net 25 across the year is Leidy sourced but it's peaky, it's peaky and that's summer period, it's much less so in the winter.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
It brings me to my next question, the guidance kind of the pointing at the top end of the range, how is that reflecting kind of the absence of July weather so far?
Ralph Izzo:
So Dan, whenever we give information it's up-to-the-minute, so we obviously have taken into account July and we've looked at a 10 to 14-day forecast. So all of that's factored in. By the way, I just saw yesterday that it is being called the polar vortex again. So evidently in July, that's 74 degrees versus negative 17 . But yes, the recent weather and the near term forecast is included in the upper end of guidance. Thanks for asking that because beyond that range, we would assume normal weather.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
And then I guess this is the last question, Caroline, how should we think about tax rate for this year given the fact the rate came in lower in the second quarter? And what would be your expectations for next year?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes, So I think in terms of tax rate, you should pretty much think of our tax rate as relatively steady for the businesses. Sometimes we have smaller adjustments in the tax rate so just a little bit of benefit in Power for the tax rate this year. We closed out audits. Obviously that affects things, production, deduction, you calculate that as you look at it overall the amount of generation that your source from market versus what you produce. Those kind of things I think is just noise. So I would think of your tax rate as basically consistent for Power and for the utility on the year-on-year basis. The only thing that might bounce your tax rate a little bit on a quarterly basis now that we of the Solar Source business in Power and Solar Source goes into, as the unit comes into service, you see that little bit of boost benefit, if you will, right, a little bit of benefit for the portion of the ITC that you see kind of on through the P&L as a permanent difference. Other than that, I think you should expect it to be pretty smooth.
Operator:
And the next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Wondering about the outage at Salem. Was there anything in the work that you did there that perhaps, I guess, for lack of better term, pulled ahead work or work that you would have done or had to do in 1 year or 2 years and that you're able to do at this point? Is there anything in that ...
Ralph Izzo:
Nothing that would meaningfully change the duration of the next refueling outage, Travis. But believe me, that topic was front and center often as we waited for the coolant pumps to come back from the refurbishment of the vendors. But with by no means when we skip an outage nor should you think about any material shortening of the next refueling outages which should be 18 months from now.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Different talk, but now that you have certainty on the Energy Strong investment needs, what are your thoughts around equity needs and use of balance sheet right now and use of retained earnings financing that?
Ralph Izzo:
So we consistently and remain firm in our belief that we do not have any need for outside equity for the fairly robust capital program we have. Caroline, you may want to answer?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes, Travis as I mentioned just earlier, we closed the quarter with the debt-to-cap of the company at 42 and for Power at 32, we also talked about the fact that we know if you have more regulated investments to do, we even have parents at capacity. So there's a lot of room on the balance sheet, not to say that we haven't used it right to consistently identify things as Ralph has mentioned to put balance sheet to work. But when I look at this and then I look at the things that we were just talking about earlier whether it's more on the gas side that we might be able to do next round of something following Energy Strong, more transmission in the open window, potential for Artificial Island if it comes our way, potential for more things that we might identify on an infrastructure basis and I look at a lot of those kinds of things that we identify and they do add up but none of them add up to suggest that the balance sheet we have can't support that, and more. And, of course, for things like transmission, as you know, under our formula rates, it's a realtime, we're not lagging and so cash comes back as well so I look at this and say we have our conversations and talk about opportunities. We have a balance sheet that can support that and nothing gets close to equity issuance.
Operator:
And the next question is from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
I just wanted to understand a little better the thought process behind the charge related to the cost base bidding issues there. In the first quarter you've identified that the initial issue you took a charge you didn't tell us how much it was. And then this quarter, you are telling us how much that charge was. You've identified the issue might be broader, and have some other aspects to it, but you haven't added to the charge. So should we read into that, that you feel that you took adequate reserve or you just have no way of estimating it? If that was the case, initially, why did you come up with $25 million? Is there any context you can give there, Ralph?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, I'll answer that, Jonathan. So thanks for asking the question. We should be clear here. So as you recall, we said we took a charge in the first quarter. We didn't identify what it was. So obviously, it was the source to lot of conversation. So we thought it was appropriate to tell you what we took in the first quarter, which was the $25 million, the $0.03 a share was all embedded into Power's operating earnings for the first quarter. And the standard on which we rely here in determining that charge is the accounting standard for contingency. So you may be familiar with it, but if not, let me just be a little bit descriptive. The accounting guidelines for the time for which we took the charge in the first quarter essentially worked this way
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
One other follow-up on that, is there any aspect to this which is sort of ongoing affecting your earnings power? There are constantly changes in practice and systems you talked about. Are we going to notice any of that?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
No, so the guidance that we gave you and the upper end of the range guidance, we're really talking about Power's operational earnings power. And Power's operational earnings power is unchanged in how we bid the units and how the units run and the capacity factors and Salem getting back and Linden having more megawatts. So we don't see this as changing the ability of Power to continue to garner the value it garners from its location. So I would say no to that. This is something we need to work through and there we will update you as we go and there may be more to say in subsequent quarters, because we are just in the process now. But it doesn't change the fundamentals of how you should think about Power operating in the market.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
This is more a sort of retroactive thing, if I may, either penalties or disgorgement or whatever that may occur, but the go forward is not really affected?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
So you're correct. This is something that may result in incremental charges, it may result in penalties. But we just don't know enough right now to give you any guidance in that regard.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay, did you have an update on when do you think you might have some clarity on that. I apologize if you already said that.
Ralph Izzo:
That's okay, Jonathan. No we -- actually, we don't. As I mentioned earlier, and Ralph mentioned as well, we did inform the FERC, we've been in discussions with PJM and the Independent Market Monitor, so there are many parties into this conversation appropriately. And so we can't really give an estimate of the timeframe at this point. We're continuing to obviously work with all those parties.
Operator:
The next question as from Paul Fremont of Jeffries.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Really two things. One, can I get a reaction to the staff recommendation on the consolidated tax adjustment, and what that might mean for Public Service Enterprise for Public Service Electric and Gas?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure, you know the CTA, as recommended, of course, which is not final, right, it's just recommended, takes a view of taking a 5-year look back from the date of filing, also takes a view of separating out transmission from distribution and then 75% to the company, 25% to the -- for the benefit of the customer. So we think that is a very good outcome, and we think if that were to be the final rule, we think that would be fine from the PSE&G perspective and we'll continue, we think, to appropriately reflect how to think about taxes and, therefore, appropriately encourage incremental investments. So if that were the outcome, which is as I said is not the final outcome, that would be a good outcome from our perspective.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
I mean, are you able to sort of quantify the potential rate base impact of, if that recommendation were adopted?
Ralph Izzo:
It would be de minimis, it would not be material.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
And then the second question I have is, you guys mentioned the 316b final rules at EPA, where do you currently stand with the Salem water discharge permit?
Ralph Izzo:
So I believe our Salem water discharge permit expired some years ago and it's been held in advance waiting for the EPA rules to come out. So we have had some very preliminary meetings with the EP staff not only on Salem but some of our fossil units that now can have their permits refreshed given the promulgation of the rule. I'm pretty sure that the 316b rule, as proposed by EPA have named traveling restructuring as the best technology available for impingement; entrainment [ph] is more of site-specific determination. So the ink wasn't dry when we called up VP [ph] and said let's talk about these permits.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
So you're essentially -- you would like to see sort of a ruling that's consistent with the EPA standards, then, at the same level?
Ralph Izzo:
That's right, Paul.
Kathleen A. Lally:
Operator, I think we're going to move to closing comments right now, given the fact we're at the noon hour. So I'm going to turn it back over to Ralph for closing comments before concluding.
Ralph Izzo:
Thanks, Kathleen. So just to recap. We obviously had some help from weather in the markets earlier in year. Mostly weather early in the year and a little more help from the markets early in the spring which we were able to capitalize on in some of our hedging activity, as Carol described for you. We're not getting any help from the weather lately and we didn't do ourselves a favor with some of our operational challenges in the spring. But when I add up all of those challenges, whether it's weather or operational, I am pleased to guide you to the upper end of the range, even having put all that into the stew. And I'm even more happy about the fact that all those challenges are in the rearview mirror and that plants are running well now as Carolyn dialogued with Jonathan alluded to, even the bidding issues at our trading group we've corrected in the errors that we were aware of have been corrected in, that's in the rearview mirror. The balance sheet remains strong, and investment program is on track, we don't need new equity, we can do all that and still support growth in the dividend. So with that, I'll just say thank you for joining us on the call. We'll see you in various venues in the fall and then I'm sure, late in the fall. And that will be it from here. Thank you, all.
Kathleen A. Lally:
Thank you, operator. With that, we're going to conclude today's call.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may disconnect and thank you for participating.
Executives:
Kathleen A. Lally - Vice President of Investor Relations Ralph Izzo - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President, Chairman of Executive Committee, Chairman of PSEG Power LLC, Chairman of Public Service Electric & Gas Company, Chief Executive Officer of PSEG Power LLC and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Electric & Gas Company Caroline D. Dorsa - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President
Analysts:
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division Paul Zimbardo - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Ali, and I'm your event operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to today's conference call, Public Service Enterprise Group First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded today, May 1, 2014, and will be available for telephone replay beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern time today until 11:30 p.m. Eastern time on May 8, 2014. It will also be available as an audio webcast on PSEG's corporate website at www.pseg.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kathleen Lally. Please go ahead.
Kathleen A. Lally:
Thank you, Ali, I appreciate that. Good morning, everyone. I apologize for the slight delay in our call this morning. I appreciate your patience with us, as there's a lot of earnings calls this morning. We do appreciate your participation in our earnings call, and as you are aware, we released first quarter 2014 earnings statements earlier this morning. And the release and the attachments are posted on our website at www.pseg.com, under the Investors section. We also posted a series of slides that detail operating results by company for the quarter. The 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2014, is expected to be filed shortly. I'm not going to read the full disclaimer statement or the comments we have made on the difference between operating earnings and GAAP results. But as you know, the earnings release and other matters that we will discuss in today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. And although we may elect to update forward-looking statements from time to time, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so even if our estimate changes, unless of course, we are required to do so. Our release also contains adjusted non-GAAP operating earnings. Please refer to today's 8-K or our other filings for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts and expectations and for a reconciliation of operating earnings to GAAP results. I would now like to turn the call over to Ralph Izzo, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Public Service Enterprise Group. And joining Ralph on the call is Caroline Dorsa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. And at the conclusion of their remarks, there will be time for your questions.
Ralph Izzo:
Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Earlier this morning, we reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2014 of $1.01 per share. That's a 19% increase over the first quarter of 2013's operating earnings of $0.85 per share. I'm extremely pleased with PSEG's results. We delivered on many fronts during the quarter. For anyone on this call listening who resides on the East Coast, I don't need to tell you how cold it was this winter. You experienced the polar vortex and we experienced it as well. The record low temperatures challenged our employees, our equipment and our markets. Our readiness was tested at a critical time, and the effort that PSEG's employees put in to secure the availability of our equipment and maintain the reliability of the system was evident and appreciated by customers. The extreme cold weather caused stress around the system from freezing coal-handling equipment at some facilities and playing havoc with other equipment, which resulted in forced outages at some of our coal, gas and peaking units. And there was a need to response to the stress the weather placed on our electric and gas distribution system with additional repair work. Despite these challenges, the strength of Power's fleet was demonstrated in the first quarter through its dispatch flexibility and diverse fuel mix. Our dual fuel coal units were able to run on gas, and when necessary, our peaking units with dual fuel capability ran on fuel oil when gas wasn't available. And our nuclear fleet continued to perform at high levels, operating at a 100% capacity factor. Even though some of our gas generation was curtailed, we were able to get sufficient gas to operate our units at critical times. Our coal and peaking stations responded to the improvement in market economics, and given the responsiveness of our employees, the impact of outages was limited and the fleet was available to meet the strong demand. The extremes in weather created substantial volatility in the market. PSEG Power's diverse fuel mix and dispatch flexibility allowed Power to capture margin on its net long position as it responded to the increasing demand. The strong interaction between our station managers and commercial teams resulted in the adjustment of scheduled outage work and assured the supply of energy in support of customer needs. We were also able to pull forward major work at our Linden units to upgrade with Advanced Gas Path technology in advance of the summer season. Our access to low-cost gas supplies continued to yield benefits for our customers. During the month of February and March, PSE&G's customers received bill credits amounting to $115 million. That's an important savings at any time of the year. Our operating earnings in the quarter also reflect the benefit of an increase in the capital invested in our stable regulated business. This increased investment continues to drive earnings growth and improvement in reliability of PSE&G as it transforms the profile of our company. PSE&G's capital program remains on schedule. In 2014, PSE&G is expected to invest $2.2 billion in electric and gas infrastructure upgrades to its transmission and distribution facilities to maintain reliability as part of a 5-year $10 billion capital program. We reached a milestone as part of our capital program that we are quite proud of. The first segment of the Susquehanna-Roseland 500 kV transmission line went into service during the month of April. We expect to complete construction of the SR towers and the lines heading west to the Delaware Water Gap this summer. Our section of the line, an investment of approximately $790 million, will eventually connect with PPL's portion. And Susquehanna-Roseland is expected to be fully operational in 2015 when PPL completes construction on the western portion of the line. This will be a major achievement. SR's 2015 operational date would be 12 years after the August 2003 block out and almost a decade after PGM identified the critical system needs required to upgrade aging infrastructure and relieve overloaded power lines. PSE&G energized the Burlington-Camden 230 kV line this week, ahead of schedule, and it is on schedule to energize to address the North Central Reliability transmission line this summer. These projects represent a total investment of approximately $790 million and are designed to improve power [ph] quality and system reliability. All 3 lines are part of PSE&G's ongoing transmission program, representing $6.8 billion of the $10 billion capital program I mentioned a moment ago and providing double-digit growth in PSE&G's operating earnings through 2016. As PSE&G's investment in transmission is expected to drive its earnings growth, it is also expected to further diversify PSE&G's asset base as transmission gross will represent more than 45% of PSE&G's rate base over the next 3 years. Transmission lines and switching stations are the backbone of our electric grid, ensuring that we can transport power to where it's needed safely and reliably. This will assume greater importance as we begin to experience growth, although still modest, in weather-normalized electric demand. The polar vortex exposed the critical need to maintain and improve on the resiliency of our infrastructure, the need to replace aging equipment and maintain the level of service demanded by our customers, and it highlighted the everyday truth that not investing in the system can have a real cost. We expect the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to rule on PJM's proposed changes for a demand response prior to the upcoming RPM auction as they switch over to Power now. We're supportive of PJM's proposals and believe the rule changes will be a good step in recognizing the need for a more level playing field among suppliers. So as we look ahead, Power has also invested in necessary retrofits to its fossil units to meet existing environmental requirements. Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling upholding the Environmental Protection Agency's Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, or CSAPR as we often refer to. As you may recall, this was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. We're studying the ruling and await word from EPA and its intention with regard to implementing CSAPR. With its implementation, we would see reductions in NOx emissions in addition to the SO2 reductions achieved through the implantation of the Mercury and Air Toxics rule, commonly referred to as MATS. The Supreme Court ruling validates the investments we made to satisfy of environmental requirements, and supports expectations for the retirement of plants that don't meet EPA requirements. As I mentioned earlier, the first quarter represented a significant challenge. Through it, we demonstrated the strength of our assets and the talent of our employees, their focus on the mission of providing safe, reliable energy allowed us to meet the needs of our customers and shareholders. The first quarter was very strong financially and operationally and we are maintaining our operating earnings guidance for 2014 of $2.55 to $2.75 per share, given the importance of normal weather to third quarter earnings expectations for both Utility and for Power. We have a proven strategy and we continue to reap benefits from our robust business mix. Our strong financial position will allow us to meet our goals without the need to dilute shareholders through the issuance of equity, and our employees provide me with a confidence in our ability to achieve our long-term goals. With that, I'll turn the call over to Caroline who will discuss our financials in greater detail.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Thank you, Ralph, and good morning, everyone. As Ralph said, PSEG reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2014 of $1.01 per share versus operating earnings of $0.85 per share in last year's first quarter. We provide you with a reconciliation of operating earnings to income from continuing operations and net income for the quarter on Slide 4. As you can see on Slide 8, PSEG Power provided the largest contribution to earnings. For the quarter, Power reported operating earnings of $0.58 per share compared with $0.50 per share last year. PSE&G reported operating earnings of $0.42 per share compared with $0.35 per share last year. And PSEG Enterprise/Other, or the parent, contributed operating earnings of $0.01 per share compared with breakeven operating earnings during the first quarter of 2013. We've provided you with a waterfall chart on Slide 9 to take you through the net changes in quarter-over-quarter operating earnings by major business, and I'll now review each company in more detail. First, let's turn to PSE&G. As shown on Slide 11, PSE&G reported operating earnings for the first quarter of 2014 of $0.42 per share compared with $0.35 per share for the first quarter of 2013. PSE&G's earnings for the first quarter reflect the benefit of an increase in revenue associated with its expanded capital investment program, an improvement in demand, under-reduction and pension expense. Slide 12 provides a reconciliation of the items that influence PSE&G's quarter-over-quarter earnings. FERC authorized PSE&G's request for an annual increase in transmission revenue under the company's formula rate filing. The increase in revenue, which was effective on January 1 of this year, supported a quarter-over-quarter increase and a net earnings contribution from transmission of $0.03 per share. Demand for electricity and gas in the quarter was influenced by weather, which was significantly colder than both normal weather and the weather of a year ago. The impact of the colder-than-normal weather on electric demand added $0.01 per share to quarter-over-quarter earnings. The impact of weather on gas demand, as you would expect, was recaptured in the weather-normalization clause and didn't impact earnings comparisons. Apart from the weather, an improvement in the weather-normalized gas demand and volumes added $0.02 per share to quarter-over-quarter earnings. Gas deliveries continued to benefit from sustained low commodity prices and slowly recovering economic conditions. On a weather-normalized basis, gas deliveries are estimated to have increased by about 3.4% in the quarter. Earnings also improved by $0.01 per share due to a reduction in the effective tax rate and all other items. And the reduction in PSE&G's pension expense was fully offset by some higher operating and maintenance expense associated with weather-related repair costs, resulting in a flat O&M comparison quarter-over-quarter. Economic conditions in the service area led by the housing market are exhibiting slow but steady signs of improvement. On a weather-normalized basis, electric sales were estimated to have improved by 1.3% in the quarter, led by a 2.9% growth in sales to commercial customers. But this level of growth may be greater than the underlying improvement in economic conditions, given Sandy-related adjustments to billings in the year-ago quarter. And you'll recall we mentioned last year that Sandy impacted normal billing patterns during that quarter and immediately after. Weather-normalized electric sales to residential customers are estimated to have increased by a more modest 0.6% in the first quarter. Turning to investments, despite the extreme cold weather experienced in the quarter, PSE&G has been able to maintain its schedule for capital spending and remains on target to invest up to $2.2 billion on electric and gas infrastructure upgrades during 2014 to maintain reliability. As Ralph mentioned, a portion of the Susquehanna-Roseland transmission line was energized from the new Hopatcong switching station to Roseland earlier this year, and the North Central Reliability and Burlington-Camden 230 kV lines are on schedule to be in service to meet this summer's peak electricity demand. PSE&G is earning its authorized ROE for the 12 months ended March 31, 2014. We're maintaining our forecast for double-digit growth in PSE&G's operating earnings for 2014 to $705 million to $745 million as well as expectations for double-digit earnings growth through 2016. Now let's move to Power. As shown on Slide 15, PSEG Power reported operating earnings for the first quarter of $0.58 per share compared with $0.50 per share 1 year ago. The earnings release and Slide 16 provide you with detailed analysis of the impact on Power's operating earnings quarter-over-quarter from changes in revenue and costs. Power's first quarter results, which are $0.08 per share higher than last year, benefited from an increase in revenue. Higher capacity prices, an improvement in the economic dispatch of Power's fleet, and an increase in output more than offset the impact of higher costs associated with the need to meet the increased demand as well as the need to undertake planned outages and the cost associated with completing the capacity upgrade work at Linden. Now let's turn to Power's operations. Power's output increased approximately 3% in the quarter from the year-ago levels, and Power's assets were well positioned to take advantage of market movements in the quarter, given Power's hedging strategy, dispatch flexibility and diverse fuel mix. The base load nuclear fleet operated at an average capacity factor of 100% in the quarter, as Ralph mentioned, and it produced 55% of Power's total generation in the quarter, or 8 terawatt hours. Production from the combined cycle fleet declined 8% to 3.4 terawatt hours in the quarter, or 23% of total generation. Output at the Bethlehem, New York, facility was hurt by a decline in gas availability and Linden's availability was affected by a decision to extend an outage to complete the AGP capacity upgrade work, actually ahead of schedule. An improvement in dark spreads supported an increase in output from the coal stations, particularly from the Connecticut-based Bridgeport Harbor station, so production from the coal fleet increased 15% to 2.6 terawatt hours, or 18% of total generation. The cold weather and increased demand supported the economic dispatch of the steam and peaking units, which provided 4% of the fleet's output in the quarter. Slide 17 provides more details on the generation in the quarter. The combination of higher capacity prices and an increase in market prices on Power's unhedged position more than offset the impact of lower average price upon hedges and the need to meet the demand under the fixed-price full-requirements BGS contract. For the quarter, Power's gross margin as -- gross margins, as shown on Slide 19, expanded to $50 per megawatt hour from $47.50 per megawatt hour last year. Lastly, impacting electric gross margins, Power has identified that it incorrectly calculated certain components of its cost base bids for certain generating units in the PJM energy market, with resulting over-collection of revenues related to its fossil fleet. Power has self-reported the issue to FERC, PJM and the PJM Independent Market Monitor on this issue. The issue is still under review and we're unable to estimate the ultimate impact or predict any resulting penalties or other costs associated with the matter at this time. The company recognized the liability in the quarter related to this matter, but this impact is included in our calculation of gross margin, which continues to show quarter-over-quarter improvement to the $50 per-megawatt-hour level that I just mentioned. Turning to the gas side, the contribution from Power's firm gas transportation contracts improved quarter-over-quarter earnings by $0.05 per share. The contribution to earnings is from Power's traditional gas supply business and it reflects the positive impact on earnings from higher volumes and the ability to price gas sold to commercial and industrial customers at market. Looking forward, power has increased its forecast generation output for 2014 to 56 to 58 terawatt hours from the prior estimate of 53 to 55 terawatt hours. The revised forecast reflects the increase in output during the first quarter and an expected improvement in the economic dispatch of the fleet. As always, our forecast is based on normal weather conditions for the remainder of the year. Approximately 70% to 75% of anticipated production for the April-to-December period is hedged at an average price of $49 per megawatt hour. Power has also increased its forecast of economic generation in 2015 and 2016 to 54 to 56 terawatt hours from 53 to 55 terawatts hours in each year. For 2015, Power has hedged between 50% and 55% of its forecast generation at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. For 2016, Power has hedged 25% to 30% of its forecast generation at an average price of $51 per megawatt hour. The hedge data, as we show on Slide 20, for 2014 and 2015 continue to assume BGS volumes will represent about 11 terawatt hours in 2014 and about 10 terawatt hours in 2015. We continue to forecast full year operating earnings for power of $550 million to $610 million. Results for the remainder of the year will be influenced by a decline in the average price received on our PJM capacity to $166 per megawatt day on June 1 of this year from the historically high level we're currently enjoying of $242 per megawatt day, as well as a decline in the average price of our energy hedges. O&M is expected to compare favorably given a reduction in pension expense and the absence of major outage-related work that occurred in the second half of last year, for comparison purposes. Now let me briefly discuss the operating results from Enterprise and Other. For the first quarter, PSEG Enterprise/Other, or the parent, reported operating earnings of $0.01 per share, which compares with essentially breakeven operating results during the first quarter of 2013. Results reflected a steady contribution to earnings from the leased portfolio and a contribution from PSEG Long Island. We continue to forecast full-year operating earnings for 2014 for PSEG Enterprise/Other of $35 million to $40 million. I want to point out that in April, PSEG and Power amended their credit agreements ending in 2017, which has effectively -- does extend the expiration dates from March of 2017 to, now, April 2019. Total credit capacity as of March 31, 2014, was $4.3 billion. PSEG has credit facilities amounting to $1 billion, Power's credit facilities total $2.7 billion. In addition, PSEG maintains a 5-year credit facility amounting to $600 million. A significant portion of our $4.3 billion of credit capacity expires post 2018, $2 billion matures in 2018 and $2.1 billion matures in 2019 with this recent extension [ph]. As we said many times, we can finance our capital program without the need for the issuance of equity given the strength of Power's cash flow and our already-strong balance sheet, with debt at the end of March 31 of this year representing 41% of our consolidated capital. And we ended the quarter with about $655 million in cash. We continue to forecast operating earnings for the full year of $2.55 to $2.75 per share. With that, that concludes my comments and I'll now turn the call back over to the operator and open the line for your questions. Ali?
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Jonathan Arnold with Deutsche Bank.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Just on this reserve, Caroline, you talked about in the quarter, the cost base bidding, et cetera, could you clarify if that -- it -- was that just a first quarter item or was -- did you reserve against something that relates to a longer period of history? How long, perhaps, if that's the case?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure. So thanks, Jonathan. So we booked a liability in this quarter based on errors that we identified. And they're in certain bid adders such as emissions, historically, and we've fixed all of the errors that we've identified in the bid adder arena that resulted in any over-collection. So right now, we're assessing all other aspects of our model, any other identified and quantified errors will be fixed. We can't comment any further, really, at this point other than to remind you that we have self-reported, and what we booked as a liability is reflected, still, in those numbers that I gave you that result in gross margin per megawatt hour increasing quarter-over-quarter to $50 per megawatt hour.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Do you give us any sort of insight into what your -- I mean, whether this is, there's some kind of historical liability kind of being booked against the first quarter?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes. It relates to errors we've identified historically. That's exactly right. But since we're in the self-report and the appropriate regulatory process, we can't give more details at this time. And when the process is complete, we'll give the full information but we can't do that quite yet.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay. But it's safe to say that some element of this unquantified reserve that doesn't just relate to kind of rejiggering how you've presented first quarters, there's some past stuff in there, too?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
It relates to the past. Correct.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay. All right. When, do you think, we might have a better sense of how much that affected the quarter?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes. So we're in this self-report process, discussions with PJM and the Market Monitor and the self-report we just made to FERC. We want to see that regulatory process, of course, through to completion and can't really predict what that timeframe would be, but when we get to that end of that timeframe, we'll disclose it as appropriate, the final results.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
Okay. And then I think as we've been -- you've been on the phone, it looks like an 8-K has hit with an information about an Energy Strong settlement.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes. Jonathan, so let me talk about that. I want to dispel one rumor and confirm one rumor. The one rumor I want to dispel is that we moved the call up an hour and I couldn't get here on time, so we started 5 minutes late. That's not accurate. But we did have some tremendous progress last night in our discussions with all the interveners, in particular the board staff. And this morning, we were just trying to dot our Is and cross our Ts and have signatures on the settlement agreement, and then of course, to comply with FD, we needed to make sure that, that information was released. The earnings release went out ahead of the dotting of Is and crossing of Ts. And we now have done that. So I am pleased to tell you that we have a settlement agreement with the staff. We expect many of the other interveners to join, but we don't have their signature yet, and I'm okay with that. The staff is -- we'd always want to make sure we have an agreement with. It's a $1.22 billion program, about $820 million of that is electric and $400 million of that is gas. The allowed ROE is $975 million. $1 billion of that will be recovered through accelerated-recovery mechanisms. $200 million of that will be done in the 2017 time frame when we will then file a rate case in November of '17, with a 3-month historic, 9-month look ahead profile. So that will be 7 years plus from our last base-rate case. We would expect the BPU to approve this. They have not as yet, the schedule for approving it will be announced shortly. That will be a partial function of how many other parties sign on, although, as I said, I do expect most of the participants to sign on. So I know that they're not on the phone right now, but I just have to thank the hundred-plus municipalities and counties who supported us, the unions who supported us, the hospitals who supported us, the other parties who engaged in the dialogue of about 15 months and our regulatory team. They just did a great job, and we're just pleased to get this thing going right now. I would view this as an important start to hardening the system. There's nothing in the settlement that says we can do the full $3.9 billion. I don't mean to suggest that. But there's nothing that says we can't. So I just view this as an important start, and we will be measured by our success and effectiveness in hardening the system, as we should be. But I'm glad that we can get underway.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
And I guess given it's my question, can I just ask one clarifier on this?
Ralph Izzo:
Sure. Sure.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
The -- so when you said that $1 billion will be under kind of accelerated recovery and then the balance, $200 million will be -- so the $1 billion is sort of for 2015 and '14 through '16. Is that correct?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, it's unfortunately not quite so simple, Jonathan. Some of the stuff will get done in 2 years. Some will take 3 and some will take 5. The 5 year has to do with the substations that were underwater in Irene and in Sandy. And all of those, even those that go out to 5 years, will be under the accelerated recovery mechanism. So there's $200 million of the program that is going to be done just leading up to the rate case. And what we agreed is, we would just make that part of the prudency review since there's really not a lot of time lag between the prudency review and the capital program. None of this stuff gets recovered until it goes into service. So we thought that, that would be okay. That there would be no lag on that $200 million.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
The rate case will be filed with 9 months of 2016, 3 months of 2017 for 1/1/17 rate?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no, no. You got it the other way around. So when it goes in November of '17.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
November.
Ralph Izzo:
There would be 3 months of actuals and 9 months of forecast.
Jonathan P. Arnold - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division:
It will go in November of '17. Okay. I got it. 3 months.
Ralph Izzo:
Very good. Because if I had to repeat it, I might not say it the same way twice. It's 3 months of actuals and 9 months forward, that's been our practice.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Kit Konolige with BGC Financial.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Just to follow a little on the Energy Strong, can you quantify how much that -- this deal would be worth, say, in terms of EPS or...
Ralph Izzo:
Kit, we've pretty much given you a fairly consistent rule of thumb that at our cap structure with these kind of returns is about $0.01 for every $100 million of investment that needs to be refined frequently.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
That's right.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Right. And when would -- under this settlement, when would the investment start to be made and how would the rate base ramp up as a result of this?
Ralph Izzo:
So -- I mean, you should not expect a big impact in '14. I don't have in front of me the exact capital program calendar, but yes, most of it will be felt in '15, '16, '17 and '18.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
And you may recall, Kit, as we talked about in March, right, we forecast double-digit earnings growth, but also double-digit rate-base growth even without Energy Strong as we talked about. So this enhances that to reinforce the strength of the rate-base growth as double-digit and the earnings. But as Ralph said, not a material item at all for 2014.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And one other area to go back to, Ralph, your comment on the auction, it sounds like -- do I understand you correctly to say that, you view the demand resources rule changes kind of the key change in the auction?
Ralph Izzo:
So we do view it as a key change, right? Because the import issue is more of a Western PJM issue than it is for us. So whether it's the limited DR resources or trying to address some of the arbitrage opportunities available between the base residual auction and the incremental auctions, we think all these are positives for creating more of a level playing field in the market. Now I've been running around trying to find the settlement documents. So I'm just looking around at my colleagues to make sure FERC hasn't acted on this yet, right, it's suppose to happen soon, but we don't have a decision yet.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
No. That's right. Not yet.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
Right. Okay. And so can you give us any insight into what we should expect from the auction do [ph]? Should we expect the PS and PSEG Zones to separate again? And can you give us an idea of what your thinking is about where the RTO settles?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, Kit, we would never do that. We just -- it's obviously a competitive auction process and to forecast or predictions would not be a good idea. And we've never done that in the past. I will tell you though that we'll know by May 23, if it's going on the 12th, and from the 12th to the 16th, and then PJM takes a week to assess them. So 3 weeks and 2 days from today, we'll all have the answer. I don't want to lead you to think that we don't analyze this. We just don't publicize what we think of that.
Kit Konolige - BGC Partners, Inc., Research Division:
You're right. Well, at least you confirmed that we'll know by May 23, right?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, thanks, Kit.
Operator:
And the next question comes from Dan Eggers with Crédit Suisse.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Can you just -- with the settlement, can you just walk through maybe -- because I don't have them side by side yet, I apologize. But walk through what were the big changes kind of from that, maybe the $2.6 billion over the 5 years you had projected or requested and what you guys settled today as far as where dollars weren't spent and how you think about the opportunity to spend those later?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so Dan, the most important part we view of the settlement was the electric substations. And all of that is covered from the point of view of what was affected by Irene and Sandy. But there were a bunch of other areas that we thought would be beneficial. For example, we had the undergrounding of, I think, 30 miles of circuits -- of overhead circuits, and that was knocked out. We had some improvement to SCADA systems, our data analysis, data acquisition and analysis system that would help us restore those customers who were interrupted more promptly. That was knocked out. On the gas side, we had, I think, 500 miles of cast-iron that was affected or is in now FEMA -- more at-risk areas. And that 500 was cut back to 250. We then had some movement of backyard services to the front of the home. Once again, our backyard service getting knocked out is just that much more difficult to restore. That was knocked out. We had some improvements in construction standards for some of our distribution systems. That was knocked out. So the heart -- I just listed a whole bunch of stuff that was knocked out. I don't want to give the wrong impression. The heart of the program was the substations, and that was fully funded. But we will go back, I mean, I think people are going to see that this has a benefit. We wouldn't have proposed it if we didn't think so. And as we do the work and as we see the system perform, we'll go back and talk to the staff and talk to the other parties. I really do take their reaction to this, not as a no on the other stuff, but as a not yet, and just show me that it's money well spent. And I think that, that's perfectly legitimate and fair on their part, and we will step up to that.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Do you have a ballpark maybe of kind of by year how that money is going to get spent over the next...
Ralph Izzo:
We'll release further details. I don't -- off the top of my head right now, and I just want to make sure the team has a chance to get the schedules all put together and then we can release that. But as Caroline said, in our March conference, we didn't bake in to our growth projections for the Utility Energy Strong. So that's 1.2 over the next 2 to 5 years. It's really more like 4, will be incremental to that, and we'll give you the specifics.
Daniel L. Eggers - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Okay. And I guess one other question that has kind of been out in the market is, your kind of views on remaining an integrated company with the distribution business on the regulated side and the competitive generation business. Can you just remind us how you guys think about combined company and what will be required to maybe how you reevaluate that strategy?
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, so Dan, we talk about that often. And there's arguments on both sides of the equation. By and large though, we don't think we're hampered from doing things on either side of the company by virtue of having the other company as part of the family. We kind of like the stable earnings growth of the Utility, providing a really strong foundation for the dividend and its future growth. We like the fact that power is generating a healthy amount of cash that could feed the equity needs of the Utility. There are very obvious operational dissynergies to separating. You never say never because we're always asking the question, but we obviously like the model right now. And I just keep reminding myself that every once in a while somebody says, "Gee, you have such a great Utility, if only that were standalone and separate from that struggling power company." 5 years ago, we used to have the same conversation, only the roles we're totally reverse. So it's not -- we don't put our head in the sand and not ask that question. We do talk about it regularly from the point of view of strategic clarity and being able to give a very specific message to our shareholders. But right now, the cash from power and the equity needs of the Utility are a really nice financial complement, and the operational benefits of moving people from one organization to the other with complementary skill sets has been a big plus for us as well.
Operator:
And the next question is from Travis Miller with Morningstar Inc.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Sort of back on the capacity auction real quick, I wonder if you could characterize how much demand response you would either expect or you've seen in the past show up and the potential impact on you guys specifically or your zone specifically.
Ralph Izzo:
Travis, the ability to forecast the DR is not an inconsequential part of getting the price right, so we really wouldn't want to put that number out. And the historic DR, I would rather have you -- I don't mean to make you do extra work, but check the PJM website for that rather than me quoting it. The numbers, I recall, are high-single-digit percentages, like 8% or so, but it's better to check the PJM website. But the [indiscernible] numbers and the transfer capability and the known assets and the known demand numbers are all out there for PJM. So really, a large part of the auction turns on what you expect for DR. I will say this, that most DR does happen in the higher industrial zones. And in the part of PJM that we operate, we don't have a large industrial load, so there's typically a lower DR component where we are.
Travis Miller - Morningstar Inc., Research Division:
Okay. Fair enough. And then secondly, I wonder if you could characterize the hedging environment as you saw from essentially February at the Analyst Day to where we are today, end of March period.
Ralph Izzo:
I'll start that right now and fill in. To be sure, some of the banks and financial players leaving the market, we have seen a little bit -- well, we've seen less liquidity in the out years. I don't want to qualify it as less. Also, given some of the infrastructure challenges of moving low-cost gas out of the Marcellus to other regions, combined with some fairly extreme weather conditions, have really introduced a tremendous amount of volatility in the market. So we benefited greatly with our naturally long position. We have what I would just call corridors. They're upper and lower limits in terms of how much we want to hedge. And we play within those corridors in terms of, if we think the market is oversold or maybe there's some potential for upside. So we'll lean one way or another. That's why we give you ranges of our hedge position. And suffice to say that, we've been pleased by the way in which we've managed our book given the increase in power prices of late. And we've seen a little modest increase coming from the CSAPR rule. How sustainable that will be, we don't outguess the market, but we do capitalize on those opportunities when they come up. Caroline please go ahead and answer it. I'm sure your...
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure. Just a few other points then looking at some of the numbers that you saw on our slide deck and comparing them perhaps to what you saw when we were at the March 7 meeting. So we did continue to layer on hedges, consistent with that layering and strategy that Ralph mentioned within the corridors. Keep in mind that the numbers that you have now in today's slide deck reflect an increase in the expected terawatt-hour generation from our fleet based on the economics in the market. That's a good thing, obviously, for us. So what its impact would be is, as we continue to layer on hedges, you wouldn't see the ranges move up quite as much of the hedge percentage because the denominator is moving up. That's great from our perspective. Also, if you look at the hedge percentage for the remainder of this year, it looks a little lower than the hedge percentage we gave you for the full year earlier this year. That's normally what you see because when the first quarter rolls off, you've got a greater representation from the summer period. And the summer period is where we have the mid-merit in peaking, which we would never be hedging fully because of the weather. So you normally see that percentage looking like it's going down, and then it kind of goes back up after you get through the summer. So we continue to layer on our hedges. It kind of looks the same as the progression last year, if you rolled the tape back. The only other thing going on there is that increase generation expectations, which is just great from our perspective. That changes a little bit how to think about the numbers, but it's all because of that denominator effect that we're very pleased with.
Operator:
And the next question is from Paul Zimbardo with UBS.
Paul Zimbardo - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
I think pretty much all my questions have been answered, but one question on Linden and that acceleration, and some of the other cost acceleration. Do you see that having an impact on the remainder of the year if some of the costs have been accelerated?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
In terms of O&M do you mean or in terms of generation?
Paul Zimbardo - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
In terms of outage and O&M type of expenses that you've moved forward.
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Oh, sure. So we moved them forward because we had a Linden outage that was ongoing. So we took the opportunity to extend it a little bit so that we could add the AGP, the uprate, so now we have 63 extra megawatts at Linden, which will be available for us for the summer. That increment was about $0.02 for the quarter, but that would have happened later on as we continued to do Linden. So we're still forecasting to have the O&M be lower at power and on a full year basis than prior year. That's what we told you earlier this year. And that hasn't changed. Again, some of this is timing, but a good timing to get the AGP done sooner. Remember, both businesses continue to benefit from pension expense, and that's baked into the numbers. So a little bit of timing difference. Good thing for us from the generation side, still going to see that O&M reduction in our current forecast, actually in both businesses on the year-over-year basis.
Paul Zimbardo - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division:
Okay. Great. And I'm sorry if I missed it, but did you say a potential timeline on when we would get our next update potential review from the BPU on the Energy Strong settlement?
Ralph Izzo:
So Paul, depending upon the extent to which the settlement is universal, if all the parties agree, then it's conceivable that the board would act on it in the May time frame. If all the parties are not on board, and there's reason to believe that we have a good shot at getting all the parties, but I don't know that for a fact, then it's more likely that the board will schedule an opportunity for comment on the settlement, and you're looking at more of a June decision.
Operator:
And the next question is from Anthony Crowdell with Jefferies.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Yes, actually, it's Paul Fremont. What I'm struggling with a little bit is, when I compare the uplift in commodity margin that you guys realized, which is roughly, I guess, in PJM $50 million on close to 14.5 million megawatt hours, and I compare that to Calpine, which, I think, had only 3.5 million megawatt hours in their north region, but had an uplift of like $125 million. What is it that you would point to as the biggest differences between their profit opportunity versus your profit opportunity when both companies were sort of in a similar hedge position going into the quarter?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Sure. So thanks, Paul. So I don't their situation, so certainly I can't comment on that. Obviously, we saw, as we provided the data in the waterfall, right, part of what you have to keep in mind for us is not just the data on the incremental generation, which we said was 3% higher, but you've got to take into account the impact of the hedges, right, the hedges that we have including the full requirement of BGS, right? So when BGS has stronger demand because of the winter weather, and it was a strong winter this winter, that BGS is a fixed price, and so that reduces some opportunities for us in taking advantage of the market because we have that cost to serve. So we were about 75% hedged, about 25% open to the market for the quarter. Not too dissimilar to where we've been before, but obviously the BGS prices relative to the market prices are lower now because of where the market moved in the first quarter.
Paul B. Fremont - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
So I mean, does that lead you to maybe reconsider whether the BGS is the best hedging vehicle for the company?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no. Not really, Paul. I mean, if you think about the reliance on power's cash generation, BGS has nicely protected us in the down markets. Yes, it does create an opportunity cost on the up markets, but it provides a nice stable platform. If you remember, the strength of a BGS is that it is full requirements, and it's -- we are uniquely capable of serving full requirements because of the breadth of our technology. The breadth, meaning baseload, load falling and peaking, which allows us to incorporate a load factor premium and a risk mitigation premium. So no, I don't think you'll see us moving away. That's why we have the 10 to 11 terawatt hours of BGS still factored into future years.
Operator:
And the next question is from Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Just, I wanted to follow back on this energy cost bid issue. Are you guys not disclosing the liability in the quarter? Is that -- did I get that correct?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Yes, we're not disclosing the specifics of the liability in the quarter because, as I mentioned, we're in the regulatory process. We did the self-report. We're in discussions with PJM, the market monitor, and self-report to FERC. We'd rather let that regulatory process go on and complete. So as I mentioned to you, we did book something this quarter, but it's all rolled into that gross margin per megawatt hour, that increase. And we'll give more details when we finish the process.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then you also said that it was historical in nature. Could you give us just a little bit of a flavor just roughly speaking over what time frame this was?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
No. I won't go into that right now. Same thing, we want to handle the regulatory process as appropriate, but it is historical in nature. It's things we identified looking at historical things, for example, as I mentioned, such bid adders like emissions. Those things have been fixed, and those are the kinds of errors we've been reporting.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Did it have an impact on market prices during that period of time or can you...
Caroline D. Dorsa:
That's not something we can comment on. As I said, we'll go through the regulatory process, complete all of that, and then we'll give additional information.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. But this is something that you guys discovered and it didn't involve the market monitor or anybody else? You guys are self-reporting that, correct?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
We self-reported, that's correct. We discovered it, and we self-reported it to all the agencies, correct.
Paul Patterson - Glenrock Associates LLC:
Okay. And then just finally, there was some commentary about the replacement capacity case, I think, the arbitrage, and you guys have some insight as to what the outcome is going to be is that correct or what were you talking about?
Ralph Izzo:
No, no. We, like others, have been curious about whether or not DR actually is physically delivered or whether there's an arbitrage between the base residual auction and the incremental auction. And PJM has basically adjusted some modifications to the way in which that incremental auction can take place and the physical delivery of demand response that we think will benefit the market. That's all. We have no insights other than the full public dialogue on the subject.
Operator:
And the next question is from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Two questions actually. One, Caroline, when I look at O&M in the quarter at both power and the E&G, up year-over-year at both places, up a good bit at E&G relative to first quarter 2013, but even a little bit at power. Can you just walk us through the puts and takes and what of that, if any, would be recurring when we start thinking about 2015?
Caroline D. Dorsa:
Okay. Sure. So not really forecasting 2015 specifically, but if you look at the O&M for the quarter -- and you see a nice breakout, I think, on Page 9 of our deck. We put the O&M in 2 pieces for you, which I think is kind of helpful. So the lower pension expense for PSE&G is valued at about $0.02 a share on a favorable basis, right, and then there's distribution O&M, about $0.02 a share unfavorable. So the way to think about that is, we told you that the pension expense for the whole company, right, would be $0.15 a share favorable. A little bit more than half is at PSE&G. So you'll see more like $0.08 for the year and then $0.02 for the quarter. The $0.02 on distribution O&M that was unfavorable year-over-year is primarily driven by some incremental -- some of the storms that occurred in the winter. Can't really forecast that, right? We always forecast normal weather. Sometimes we have storms in the winter. Sometimes we have storms in the summer. So together that leads to a flat O&M on an operating earnings basis, the way we typically report it. Keep in mind, if you're looking at the GAAP statement though, you wouldn't see the impact I'm showing on the waterfall because the O&M in the GAAP statement includes -- is the O&M for clauses. We always take that out from a management perspective, but if you're looking at GAAP, you're going to see O&M that relates to the contemporaneous return clauses we have, for example, like solar and a number of other things. We've always excluded that because that's recovered within the ROEs that we get when we get those clauses. That's why we focus on the operating earnings waterfall that we show you on 9, because that's really what to think about in terms of what flows down to the bottom line without recovery. So that's the Utility piece. You should expect to see pension continue to benefit quarter-over-quarter. And then the rest of the O&M really depends on the rest of our ongoing and control and whether there are any storms in the summer season, but you can't be sure about that. So in terms of power, now if I go over to the other side. Power, we also break out pensions. It's about a $0.01 for the quarter. Remember, I said, power will be a little less than half. So power gets on a rounded basis about $0.01 of benefit for the quarter. And then it has about $0.05 on a quarter-over-quarter impact for this quarter. And I mentioned the Linden outage, which was planned, but then extended. And the extension was an impact of about an extra $0.02 this quarter for the AGP. That's a good thing because that gives us more generation. So on a year-over-year comparison, most of what you're seeing in the O&M negative is the impact of outages and outage extension. For power, going forward, there's no Hope Creek outage in '14. So that will be a favorable impact relative to prior year. Because remember, when we have outages at Hope Creek, we get 100% versus outages at Salem, where we only get a portion. And also there was BEC outage, remember I talked about last quarter, for the end of the year. There won't be a BEC outage in the later part of this year. Roll that all together, where does it all take us? We have some storms in the Utility we had to spend and couldn't anticipate. We had the extended outage for the AGP in power. That is just a little negative. You've got the positive pension rolling through just the way you should expect to see it for the quarter. And when you pull all that together and you look at the rest of the year on an operating earnings basis, setting aside Utility clauses that get recovery, that's why we're still comfortable forecasting a decrease in the aggregate for each of our businesses year-over-year.
Michael J. Lapides - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. And then Ralph, just on the Energy Strong settlement, I want to make sure I followed kind of the high-level details. $1.22 billion, the bulk of the CapEx is really 2015 to 2017, there'll be a tiny bit at the end of '14 and a tiny bit that kind of trickles after 2017. On ROE, that's 30 to 40 basis points lower, 30-ish basis points lower than kind of the last authorized level and about 80%, 85% of it recovered via contemporary -- contemporaneous clause and the rest of it will be trued-up in a rate case. Is that basically the high-level gist of the settlement, anything I'm leaving out?
Ralph Izzo:
No. I think you got it, Michael.
Kathleen A. Lally:
I know there's another call that's about to begin. I don't want to interfere with -- so we do appreciate, I'll turn the call back over to Ralph for any closing comments. I'm available as well as Carlotta for any calls people have.
Ralph Izzo:
Yes, thank you, Kathleen. So just a summary, looking back at the quarter and looking ahead. From my perspective, power just continues to handle anything that comes its way. Power managed the polar vortex almost flawlessly. While that's going on, we ran 100% nuclear capacity factor, and we managed to get our Advance Gas Path technology accelerated into the quarter at Linden to make sure it's ready for the summer. And then looking ahead, please make note of the increase in our expectations for power's output in the subsequent years. Utility, once again on track for double-digit earnings growth. Capital program is on budget. You heard us mention a couple of transmission projects that are ahead of schedule. And of course, the good news that we've reached resettlement on the $1.22 billion Energy Strong Program. And last but not least, the weather-normalized demand for gas continues to grow, and we're now beginning to see growth in electric demand, and that's refreshing. So thank you for joining us. I hope to see all of you at some point in the near future on the road as we make our visits. Thanks, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may now disconnect and thank you for participating.