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Parker-Hannifin Corporation logo
Parker-Hannifin Corporation
PH · US · NYSE
568.08
USD
+55.58
(9.78%)
Executives
Name Title Pay
Mr. Todd M. Leombruno Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 2.82M
Mr. Michael J. O'Hara Vice President of Global Sales & Marketing --
Mr. Joseph R. Leonti Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary 1.88M
Mr. Mark J. Hart Executive Vice President of Human Resources & External Affairs --
Mr. Andrew D. Ross President & Chief Operating Officer 2.42M
Jeff Miller Vice President of Investor Relations --
Mr. Mark T. Czaja Vice President of Chief Technology & Innovation Officer --
Mr. Aidan Gormley Director of Global Communications & Branding --
Mr. Dinu J. Parel Vice President of Chief Digital & Information Officer --
Ms. Jennifer A. Parmentier Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer 4.62M
Insider Transactions
Date Name Title Acquisition Or Disposition Stock / Options # of Shares Price
2024-07-10 Savage Jean director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 117 0
2024-07-10 Savage Jean director I - Common Stock 0 0
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 973 158.9
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 724 530.68
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 323 166.49
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 572 536.49
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 323 166.49
2024-05-03 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 973 158.9
2024-05-03 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2058 544.25
2024-05-03 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 1200 539.36
2024-05-06 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 1079 548.85
2024-05-03 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 928 545
2024-04-24 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 2922 0
2024-04-24 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1040 546.35
2024-04-24 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 1980 0
2024-04-24 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 736 546.35
2024-04-24 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 3732 0
2024-04-24 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 1674 546.35
2024-04-24 Scott Patrick VP & Pres. - Fluid Conn. A - A-Award Common Stock 608 0
2024-04-24 Scott Patrick VP & Pres. - Fluid Conn. D - F-InKind Common Stock 273 546.35
2024-04-24 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1331 0
2024-04-24 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 403 546.35
2024-04-24 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7986 0
2024-04-24 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3286 546.35
2024-04-24 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 3732 0
2024-04-24 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 1395 546.35
2024-04-24 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 3732 0
2024-04-24 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1674 546.35
2024-04-24 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 17211 0
2024-04-24 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 7635 546.35
2024-04-24 Ross Andrew D Pres.& Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 5864 0
2024-04-24 Ross Andrew D Pres.& Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2631 546.35
2024-04-24 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 3098 0
2024-04-24 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1375 546.35
2024-04-24 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Common Stock 1866 0
2024-04-24 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 837 546.35
2024-04-24 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 477 0
2024-04-24 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 143 546.35
2024-04-24 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 2563 0
2024-04-24 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1150 546.35
2023-08-16 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 42600 406.32
2024-02-24 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 230 531.07
2024-02-24 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.-Motion Sys. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 444 531.07
2024-02-24 Scott Patrick VP & Pres.-Fluid Conn. D - F-InKind Common Stock 340 531.07
2024-02-24 Reidy Jay VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 243 531.07
2024-02-07 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director D - G-Gift Common Stock 500 514.22
2024-02-07 Scott Patrick VP & Pres.-Fluid Conn. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1640 158.79
2024-02-07 Scott Patrick VP & Pres.-Fluid Conn. D - F-InKind Common Stock 853 514.06
2024-02-07 Scott Patrick VP & Pres.-Fluid Conn. D - S-Sale Common Stock 787 514.3
2024-02-07 Scott Patrick VP & Pres.-Fluid Conn. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 1640 158.79
2024-02-07 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7840 158.79
2024-02-07 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4533 516.63
2024-02-07 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 3307 516.69
2024-02-07 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 7840 158.79
2024-02-02 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 13020 158.9
2024-02-02 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 7823 502.51
2024-02-02 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 5197 502.94
2024-02-02 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 13020 158.9
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4550 166.49
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 4267 501.45
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2695 158.79
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - S-Sale Common Stock 2978 501.72
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2695 158.79
2024-02-02 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 4550 166.49
2024-02-02 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 5080 158.9
2024-02-02 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2872 507.65
2024-02-02 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2208 507.66
2024-02-02 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 5080 158.9
2024-02-02 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9740 166.49
2024-02-02 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 5836 510.3
2024-02-02 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 3904 510.16
2024-02-02 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 9740 166.49
2024-02-02 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9740 166.49
2024-02-02 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 5850 506.04
2024-02-02 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 3890 506.24
2024-02-02 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.-Filtration Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 9740 166.49
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2590 209.56
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2890 158.9
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 3258 499.64
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2222 500.91
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2590 209.56
2024-02-02 Bracht Berend VP & Pres. Motion Sys. Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2890 158.9
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 370 166.49
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - M-Exempt Common Stock 430 158.79
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 433 497.8
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - S-Sale Common Stock 367 498
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 430 158.79
2024-02-02 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 370 166.49
2024-02-02 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 510 505.29
2024-01-01 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-01 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2024-01-01 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. I - Common Stock 0 0
2018-08-16 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1640 158.79
2019-08-15 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1380 166.49
2020-08-14 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1460 158.9
2021-08-12 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1680 209.56
2022-08-11 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1710 296
2023-08-17 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1990 299.19
2024-08-16 Scott Patrick VP & President-Fluid Conn. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1670 406.32
2024-01-01 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2024-01-01 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Common Stock 0 0
2024-01-01 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace I - Common Stock 0 0
2021-08-12 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1310 209.56
2022-08-11 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1080 296
2023-08-17 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1260 299.19
2024-08-16 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1370 406.32
2019-08-15 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 323 166.49
2020-08-14 Reidy Jay VP & President-Aerospace D - Stock Appreciation Rights 973 158.9
2023-12-14 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - G-Gift Common Stock 230 0
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2616 299.19
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4493 296
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3407 209.56
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 8349 429.26
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 2167 429.49
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 5000 429.48
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2616 299.19
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 4493 296
2023-11-14 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 3407 209.56
2023-10-25 WAINSCOTT JAMES L director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Verrier James director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Thompson Laura K director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Lobo Kevin director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Harty Linda S director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 FRITZ LANCE M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Fleming Denise R. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Evanko Jillian C. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-25 Svensson Ake director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 453 0
2023-10-26 Svensson Ake director D - F-InKind Common Stock 199 367.52
2023-10-24 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2500 0
2023-09-12 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director D - S-Sale Common Stock 1660 409.91
2023-09-07 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - G-Gift Common Stock 250 0
2023-09-07 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. D - G-Gift Common Stock 370 0
2023-09-01 Fleming Denise R. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 69 0
2023-09-01 Fleming Denise R. - 0 0
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1410 124.36
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 1230 113.23
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 1848 416
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 410 113.19
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 1202 416.1028
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - S-Sale Common Stock 3800 416.1157
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 410 113.19
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 1230 113.23
2023-08-29 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 1410 124.36
2023-08-16 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres.-Aerospace Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7780 406.32
2023-08-16 Bendali Rachid VP & President - Eng. Mat. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 11580 406.32
2023-08-16 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 14450 406.32
2023-08-16 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 45560 406.32
2023-08-16 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Malone Robert W VP & Pres.- Filtration. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 12590 406.32
2023-08-16 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 2220 406.32
2023-08-16 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 3240 406.32
2023-08-16 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 5090 406.32
2023-08-16 Bracht Berend VP & Pres - Motion Sys Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6850 406.32
2023-08-16 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Fluid Conn. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7780 406.32
2023-08-16 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 21480 406.32
2023-08-07 Harty Linda S director D - S-Sale Common Stock 1487 424.28
2023-08-04 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President A - S-Sale Common Stock 23638 417.13
2023-08-04 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 3906 417.6
2023-08-04 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2600 166.49
2023-08-04 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1737 418.18
2023-08-04 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - S-Sale Common Stock 863 419.47
2023-08-04 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2600 166.49
2023-08-04 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 5140 416.54
2023-08-04 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2079 416.89
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12830 113.19
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace A - M-Exempt Common Stock 17040 106.18
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 17810 418.73
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - S-Sale Common Stock 12069 419.2
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 17040 106.18
2023-08-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 12830 113.19
2023-06-13 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - S-Sale Common Stock 2200 367.91
2023-06-12 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - D-Return Common Stock 4310 357.04
2023-06-12 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 7840 158.79
2023-06-12 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 5437 357.48
2023-06-12 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2403 357.65
2023-06-12 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 7840 158.79
2023-06-09 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - S-Sale Common Stock 1759 352.94
2023-06-07 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - S-Sale Common Stock 1441 357.91
2023-06-07 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11540 158.79
2023-06-07 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 8064 353.74
2023-06-07 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - S-Sale Common Stock 3476 353.45
2023-06-07 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 11540 158.79
2023-05-09 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 600 337
2023-05-09 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 204 0
2023-05-09 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 204 0
2023-05-09 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 30 0
2023-05-08 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 204 0
2023-05-08 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 204 0
2023-05-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 51150 124.36
2023-05-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - F-InKind Common Stock 33423 334.7
2023-05-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - S-Sale Common Stock 17727 334.07
2023-05-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - S-Sale Common Stock 12037 333.49
2023-05-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 51150 124.36
2023-04-27 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 3174 0
2023-04-27 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1019 311.65
2023-04-27 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 7186 0
2023-04-27 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 2876 311.65
2023-04-27 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Common Stock 3134 0
2023-04-27 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 991 311.65
2023-04-27 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 3508 0
2023-04-27 Czaja Mark T VP & Chief Tech. & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1174 311.65
2023-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 3628 0
2023-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.- Motion Sys. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1227 311.65
2023-04-27 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 4032 0
2023-04-27 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1417 311.65
2023-04-27 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 1537 0
2023-04-27 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 483 311.65
2023-04-27 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace A - A-Award Common Stock 6893 0
2023-04-27 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - F-InKind Common Stock 2738 311.65
2023-04-27 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President A - A-Award Common Stock 22436 0
2023-04-27 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - F-InKind Common Stock 10399 311.65
2023-04-27 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 9989 0
2023-04-27 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Executive Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 4145 311.65
2023-04-27 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 6287 0
2023-04-27 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2914 311.65
2023-04-27 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 7624 0
2023-04-27 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 3038 311.65
2023-04-27 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 8412 0
2023-04-27 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 3413 311.65
2023-04-27 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman D - F-InKind Common Stock 22658 311.65
2023-04-27 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman A - A-Award Common Stock 48887 0
2023-04-27 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 1660 0
2023-04-27 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 513 311.65
2023-04-27 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 6454 0
2023-04-27 Ross Andrew D Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2540 311.65
2023-02-13 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman A - M-Exempt Common Stock 105500 124.36
2023-02-13 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman D - F-InKind Common Stock 67402 353.36
2023-02-13 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman D - S-Sale Common Stock 38098 352.63
2023-02-13 Williams Thomas L Executive Chairman D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 105500 124.36
2023-02-06 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 430 351.7
2023-02-03 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - S-Sale Common Stock 1550 346.55
2023-02-03 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 5950 343.05
2023-02-03 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - S-Sale Common Stock 1850 343.31
2023-02-03 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - S-Sale Common Stock 300 341.98
2023-02-03 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President A - M-Exempt Common Stock 44800 113.23
2023-02-03 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - F-InKind Common Stock 28374 338.29
2023-02-03 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - S-Sale Common Stock 16426 337.42
2023-02-03 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 44800 113.23
2023-02-03 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11390 158.9
2023-02-03 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 11390 158.9
2023-02-03 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 7729 337.29
2023-02-03 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 3661 337.43
2023-01-07 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres-Engineered Matl. Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 217 308.55
2022-11-16 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director D - G-Gift Common Stock 650 0
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4610 158.9
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3406 209.56
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 6253 303.91
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 1763 303.74
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 5800 303.93
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 3406 209.56
2022-11-10 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 4610 158.9
2022-11-08 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director D - G-Gift Common Stock 332 0
2022-11-07 Malone Robert W VP & President-Filtration Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 6700 300.72
2022-11-04 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. D - S-Sale Common Stock 1041 288.36
2022-11-04 Sherrard Roger S VP & President-Aerospace D - S-Sale Common Stock 2100 290.88
2022-10-26 Svensson Ake director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-27 Svensson Ake director D - F-InKind Common Stock 395 278.9
2022-10-26 WAINSCOTT JAMES L director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Verrier James director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Thompson Laura K director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Lobo Kevin director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Lacey William F. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Harty Linda S director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 FRITZ LANCE M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-10-26 Evanko Jillian C. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 653 0
2022-08-26 Bracht Berend VP & President-Motion Sys. D - F-InKind Common Stock 222 292.38
2022-08-17 Ross Andrew D VP & President -Fluid Conn. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 9150 0
2022-08-17 Ross Andrew D VP & President -Fluid Conn. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 9150 299.19
2022-08-16 SCAMINACE JOSEPH D - G-Gift Common Stock 340 0
2022-08-17 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 2750 0
2022-08-17 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 3920 0
2022-08-17 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 3920 299.19
2022-08-17 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 5230 0
2022-08-17 Bowman William R VP & Pres.- Instrument. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 5230 299.19
2022-08-17 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6280 0
2022-08-17 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Malone Robert W VP & President - Filter. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Malone Robert W VP & President - Filter. Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 299.19
2022-08-17 Hart Mark J EVP-HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 299.19
2022-08-17 Weeks Andrew M Vice President A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Sherrard Roger S VP & President -Aerospace A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 9150 0
2022-08-17 Sherrard Roger S VP & President -Aerospace A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 9150 299.19
2022-08-17 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 14650 0
2022-08-17 Leombruno Todd M. EVP & CFO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 14650 299.19
2022-08-17 Williams Thomas L Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 70620 0
2022-08-17 Williams Thomas L Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 70620 299.19
2022-08-17 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 17260 0
2022-08-17 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 17260 299.19
2022-08-17 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 27200 0
2022-08-17 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 27200 299.19
2022-08-17 Bendali Rachid VP & President - Eng. Mat. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-17 Bracht Berend VP & President - Motion Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 7850 0
2022-08-15 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. D - G-Gift Common Stock 233 0
2022-08-15 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. A - G-Gift Common Stock 200 0
2022-08-10 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 3224 296.3
2022-08-02 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2022-08-02 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - Restricted Stock Units 0 0
2022-08-02 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. I - Common Stock 0 0
2022-08-02 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - Common Stock 0 0
2021-08-12 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 1310 209.56
2022-08-11 Bendali Rachid VP & Pres.- Eng. Mat. Grp. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 830 296
2022-08-05 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 2787 293.47
2022-08-05 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 2666 293.47
2022-08-05 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 2786 293.47
2022-08-05 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 17 293.47
2022-08-05 Weeks Andrew M Vice President D - S-Sale Common Stock 7762 290.3
2022-08-05 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6962 293.47
2022-08-05 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres - Aerospace Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 2786 293.47
2022-08-05 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres - Aerospace Group D - S-Sale Common Stock 1375 294.12
2022-05-12 WAINSCOTT JAMES L A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1000 260.239
2022-05-10 WAINSCOTT JAMES L A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1000 265.076
2022-05-06 WAINSCOTT JAMES L A - P-Purchase Common Stock 1000 273.439
2022-05-06 WAINSCOTT JAMES L director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 2000 267.78
2022-04-27 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Common Stock 9079 0
2022-04-27 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer D - F-InKind Common Stock 3562 271.38
2022-04-27 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 3029 0
2022-04-27 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & Info Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 950 271.38
2022-04-27 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 3574 271.38
2022-04-27 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Ross Andrew D VP & Pres-Fluid Conn. Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 3127 271.38
2022-04-27 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 7199 0
2022-04-27 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 2796 271.38
2022-04-27 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres - Aerospace Group A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres - Aerospace Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 3058 271.38
2022-04-27 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Leonti Joseph R VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 3017 271.38
2022-04-27 Weeks Andrew M VP & Pres-Engineered Matl. Grp A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Weeks Andrew M VP & Pres-Engineered Matl. Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 3536 271.38
2022-04-27 Ives Angela R VP & Controller A - A-Award Common Stock 866 0
2022-04-27 Ives Angela R VP & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 255 271.38
2022-04-27 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 7711 0
2022-04-27 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 3125 271.38
2022-04-27 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Common Stock 3599 0
2022-04-27 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 1188 271.38
2022-04-27 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. A - A-Award Common Stock 2815 0
2022-04-27 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Tech&Innovation Off. D - F-InKind Common Stock 837 271.38
2022-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres - Motion Systems Gp A - A-Award Common Stock 2665 0
2022-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres - Motion Systems Gp D - F-InKind Common Stock 783 271.38
2022-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres - Motion Systems Gp A - A-Award Common Stock 2665 0
2022-04-27 Bracht Berend VP & Pres - Motion Systems Gp D - F-InKind Common Stock 783 271.38
2022-04-27 Bowman William R VP & Pres - Instrumentation A - A-Award Common Stock 5232 0
2022-04-27 Bowman William R VP & Pres - Instrumentation D - F-InKind Common Stock 1944 271.38
2022-04-27 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President A - A-Award Common Stock 28921 0
2022-04-27 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President D - F-InKind Common Stock 12898 271.38
2022-04-27 Williams Thomas L Chairman & CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 64278 0
2022-04-27 Williams Thomas L Chairman & CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 29258 271.38
2021-08-17 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman and President D - F-InKind Common Stock 6579 299
2022-03-09 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - S-Sale Common Stock 545 281.225
2022-02-15 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer D - G-Gift Common Stock 200 0
2022-02-15 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - G-Gift Common Stock 200 0
2022-02-09 Weeks Andrew M VP, President - Eng Mat Grp. D - S-Sale Common Stock 2240 313.97
2022-02-04 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 5077 310
2022-02-01 Weeks Andrew M VP, President - Eng Mat Grp. D - F-InKind Common Stock 1030 310.01
2022-01-26 Weeks Andrew M VP, President - Eng Mat Grp. A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 1610 0
2022-01-25 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 3523 314.77
2021-11-19 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9740 166.49
2021-11-19 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 7124 333.38
2021-11-19 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 2616 333.4
2021-11-19 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 9740 166.49
2021-11-15 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 400 158.9
2021-11-15 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. A - M-Exempt Common Stock 400 158.9
2021-11-15 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. D - F-InKind Common Stock 254 331.01
2021-11-15 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. D - S-Sale Common Stock 146 331.0137
2021-11-08 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director D - G-Gift Common Stock 310 0
2021-11-08 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 4023 331.84
2021-11-05 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 67200 113.23
2021-11-05 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 43704 325.07
2021-11-05 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 23496 324.3288
2021-11-05 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 67200 113.23
2021-11-05 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp A - M-Exempt Common Stock 9740 166.49
2021-11-05 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 7145 327.74
2021-11-05 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 2595 328.0122
2021-11-05 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 9740 166.49
2021-11-05 Bowman William R VP & Pres -Instrumentation Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 3275 327.03
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3407 209.56
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 4610 158.9
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - M-Exempt Common Stock 3247 166.49
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 8470 325.64
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 2794 330.12
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - S-Sale Common Stock 6000 330.12
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 3407 209.56
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 4610 158.9
2021-11-05 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 3247 166.49
2021-11-05 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - M-Exempt Common Stock 2695 158.79
2021-11-05 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 1954 325.89
2021-11-05 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - S-Sale Common Stock 741 326.204
2021-11-05 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Rights 2695 158.79
2021-11-01 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - G-Gift Common Stock 100 0
2021-11-01 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors A - G-Gift Common Stock 100 0
2021-11-01 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & IO D - F-InKind Common Stock 359 296.59
2021-10-27 WAINSCOTT JAMES L director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Verrier James director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Thompson Laura K director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 SCAMINACE JOSEPH director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Lobo Kevin director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Lacey William F. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Harty Linda S director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 FRITZ LANCE M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Evanko Jillian C. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Svensson Ake director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 556 0
2021-10-27 Svensson Ake director D - F-InKind Common Stock 222 297.98
2021-09-13 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President D - G-Gift Common Stock 350 0
2021-08-11 Bracht Berend VP & Pres-Motion Systems Grp. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2019-08-15 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.-Motion Systems Grp. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 2600 166.49
2020-08-14 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.-Motion Systems Grp. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 2890 158.9
2021-08-12 Bracht Berend VP & Pres.-Motion Systems Grp. D - Stock Appreciation Rights 2590 209.56
2021-08-11 Ives Angela R Vice President & Controller A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 2360 296
2021-08-11 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 5400 296
2021-08-11 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 51700 296
2021-08-11 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 51700 296
2021-08-11 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Materials A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Sherrard Roger S VP & Pres - Aerospace Group A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 14840 0
2021-08-11 Parmentier Jennifer A Chief Operating Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 14840 296
2021-08-11 Parel Dinu J VP Chief Information Officer A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 2000 296
2021-08-11 Parel Dinu J VP Chief Information Officer A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 3030 296
2021-08-11 Malone Robert W VP & President - Filtration Gp A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel & Sec. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel & Sec. A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 12590 296
2021-08-11 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 6740 296
2021-08-11 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 3370 296
2021-08-11 Bowman William R VP & Pres-Instrumentation Grp A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 4500 296
2021-08-11 BANKS LEE C Vice Chairman & President A - A-Award Stock Appreciation Rights 23380 296
2021-08-05 Ives Angela R Vice President & Controller D - F-InKind Common Stock 31 303.35
2021-05-27 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - G-Gift Common Stock 100 0
2021-05-27 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors A - G-Gift Common Stock 100 0
2021-05-21 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - G-Gift Common Stock 30 0
2021-05-07 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11540 158.79
2021-05-07 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 8418 320.39
2021-05-07 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 3122 320.2627
2021-05-07 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 3985 320.0651
2021-05-07 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 11540 158.79
2021-03-11 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp A - M-Exempt Common Stock 11540 158.79
2021-05-07 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 8449 316.3
2021-03-11 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 3091 316.2216
2021-05-07 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 11540 158.79
2021-05-07 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - S-Sale Common Stock 3928 320.04
2021-05-07 Parmentier Jennifer A VP Pres-Motion Systems Group D - S-Sale Common Stock 3487 320.3492
2021-05-07 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - S-Sale Common Stock 2071 320.017
2021-05-07 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - M-Exempt Common Stock 12500 0
2021-05-07 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 9118 320.37
2021-05-07 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 3382 320.4055
2021-05-07 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - S-Sale Common Stock 4229 319.5937
2021-05-07 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 12500 158.79
2021-05-05 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 13618 316.3414
2021-05-03 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. D - S-Sale Common Stock 653 310.818
2021-04-30 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - S-Sale Common Stock 3996 312.7179
2021-04-22 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp A - A-Award Common Stock 6614 0
2021-04-22 Weeks Andrew M VP, Pres-Engineered Matl Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 2618 317.6
2021-04-22 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors A - A-Award Common Stock 6614 0
2021-04-22 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - F-InKind Common Stock 2686 317.6
2021-04-22 Parmentier Jennifer A VP Pres-Motion Systems Group A - A-Award Common Stock 5735 0
2021-04-22 Parmentier Jennifer A VP Pres-Motion Systems Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 2248 317.6
2021-04-22 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & IO A - A-Award Common Stock 1726 0
2021-04-22 Parel Dinu J VP & Chief Digital & IO D - F-InKind Common Stock 542 317.6
2021-04-22 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp A - A-Award Common Stock 6614 0
2021-04-22 Malone Robert W VP, President - Filtration Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 2629 317.6
2021-04-22 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 7179 0
2021-04-22 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary A - A-Award Common Stock 7179 0
2021-04-22 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 2846 317.6
2021-04-22 Leonti Joseph R VP, General Counsel, Secretary D - F-InKind Common Stock 2846 317.6
2021-04-22 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 2314 0
2021-04-22 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO A - A-Award Common Stock 2314 0
2021-04-22 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 714 317.6
2021-04-22 Leombruno Todd M. Executive VP & CFO D - F-InKind Common Stock 714 317.6
2021-04-22 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs A - A-Award Common Stock 7179 0
2021-04-22 Hart Mark J EVP - HR & External Affairs D - F-InKind Common Stock 2950 317.6
2021-04-22 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain A - A-Award Common Stock 3098 0
2021-04-22 Gentile Thomas C VP-Global Supply Chain D - F-InKind Common Stock 1027 317.6
2021-04-22 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. A - A-Award Common Stock 929 0
2021-04-22 Czaja Mark T VP-Chief Technology & Innov. D - F-InKind Common Stock 276 317.6
2021-04-22 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group A - A-Award Common Stock 6614 0
2021-04-22 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group A - A-Award Common Stock 6614 0
2021-04-22 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 3066 317.6
2021-04-22 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 3066 317.6
2021-04-22 Bowman William R VP Pres - Instrumentation Grp A - A-Award Common Stock 4501 0
2021-04-22 Bowman William R VP Pres - Instrumentation Grp D - F-InKind Common Stock 1676 317.6
2021-04-22 BANKS LEE C President & COO A - A-Award Common Stock 25382 0
2021-04-22 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 11764 317.6
2021-04-22 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO A - A-Award Common Stock 52950 0
2021-04-22 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 24541 317.6
2021-04-22 Lacey William F. director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 365 0
2021-04-22 Lacey William F. - 0 0
2021-03-23 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - G-Gift Common Stock 320 0
2021-03-11 Harty Linda S director D - S-Sale Common Stock 7719 311.6853
2021-03-10 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - S-Sale Common Stock 850 302.3868
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 22281 116.46
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 22281 116.46
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14430 300
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - F-InKind Common Stock 14430 300
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 7851 299.9963
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - S-Sale Common Stock 7851 299.9963
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 22281 116.46
2021-03-08 BANKS LEE C President & COO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 22281 116.46
2021-03-08 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO A - M-Exempt Common Stock 33422 116.46
2021-03-08 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - F-InKind Common Stock 21991 299.77
2021-03-08 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - S-Sale Common Stock 11431 299.8017
2021-03-08 Williams Thomas L Chairman and CEO D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 33422 116.46
2021-03-08 FRITZ LANCE M director A - P-Purchase Common Stock 3900 299.8244
2021-03-03 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group A - M-Exempt Common Stock 6625 81.86
2021-03-03 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - F-InKind Common Stock 3552 298.74
2021-03-03 Sherrard Roger S VP and Pres - Aerospace Group D - M-Exempt Stock Appreciation Right 6625 81.86
2021-03-01 Ross Andrew D VP, Pres-Fluid Connectors D - S-Sale Common Stock 2594 298.825
2021-01-27 FRITZ LANCE M director A - A-Award Restricted Stock Units 547 0
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Transcripts
Operator:
Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation Fiscal 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions]. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Todd.
Todd Leombruno :
Thank you, Kevin, and good day, everyone. Welcome to Parker's fiscal year 2024 fourth quarter and year-end earnings release webcast. As Kevin said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer, speaking. And with me today is our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jenny Parmentier. We appreciate your interest in Parker, and we thank you all for joining us today. If I could draw your attention to Slide 2, you will find our disclosures on our forward-looking projections for non-GAAP financial measures. Actual results could vary from our forecast based on the items we have listed here. Our press release, the presentation we're going to go through today, and reconciliations for all non-GAAP financial measures were released this morning and are available under the Investor section on our website at parker.com. We're going to start the call today with Jenny summarizing our record fiscal year 2024 that was really driven by our portfolio transformation and really some exceptional strength in our Aerospace businesses. She'll also touch on our bright future and what really is driving the company today. I'm going to follow Jenny with some more details on specifically the strong fourth quarter we just posted. And then both of us are going to provide some color on the Fiscal Year 2025 Guide that we released this morning that sets us off on our journey to achieve our FY’29 targets. After those remarks, we'll open the call for Q&A session. We'll try to take as many questions as possible within the one-hour time slot. And with that, Jenny, I'm going to hand it over to you and ask everyone to reference Slide 3.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you, Todd. And thank you to everyone for joining the call today. Parker delivered an outstanding year in fiscal 2024 on the dedication of our people, the strength and balance of our portfolio, and the value of our business system, the win strategy. We met or exceeded many of our commitments for FY’24. We produced top quartile safety performance aligned with our goal to be the safest industrial company in the world. The strength of our portfolio was highlighted by a stellar year delivered by our Aerospace system segment. On low single-digit sales growth, the team delivered 200 basis points of margin expansion. Our earnings per share grew 18% on top of earnings growth of 15% in fiscal year 2023. And we generated record-free cash flow of $3 billion. Parker has a very promising future ahead, as you'll see from our strong fiscal year 25 guide and the targets we have set for fiscal year 2029. Next slide, please. And it was a record year for Aerospace. Our first full year with Meggitt, achieving over $5 billion in sales, more than two times the sales of fiscal year ‘20. All market segments delivered double-digit sales growth, and the strength continues as we look ahead. We are positioned for growth with significant content on leading programs, and our extensive portfolio will continue to create value for our customers, as well as our large install base will drive continued aftermarket growth. Next slide, please. As illustrated on this slide, the transformation of our portfolio further expanded longer cycle and secular revenue mix in fiscal year ‘24. And although Aerospace is a big part of the transformation, it's not the whole story. The acquisitions of CLARCOR and Lord and our on-purpose strategy to expand distribution in Europe and Asia have greatly contributed to the longer cycle secular and industrial aftermarket mix. We see this transformation continuing and expect 85% of our portfolio to be longer cycle secular and aftermarket by fiscal year ‘29. Early last week, we announced that we have signed an agreement to divest the North American composites business that came with the Meggitt acquisition. As mentioned during our investor day, we continue to optimize our portfolio. Our best owner playbook identifies businesses that find greater value with a different owner. Through this process, we determined that this business is not aligned with our core products and we are not the best owner. It's a great team and we are confident that they will be successful in the future. Next slide, please. These are the four key messages we presented at our investor day in May. We are positioned for growth with our interconnected technologies and the secular trend. We have demonstrated the win strategy. Our business system is compounding our performance and driving us to top quartile. Operational excellence, years of driving a continuous improvement culture through our lean tools creates growth and expands margins. We have confidence in achieving the fiscal year ‘29 target launched at our investor day in May. Next slide, please. As a reminder of what drives Parker, safety, engagement, and ownership are the foundation of our culture. It's our people and living up to our purpose that drives top quartile performance, allowing us to be great generators and deployers of cash. I'll turn it back to Todd to review our outstanding fourth quarter results.
Todd Leombruno :
Thank you, Jenny. It really was a fantastic year for the company. On Slide 9, I just would like to take some time to talk about the fourth quarter. Q4 was an exceptionally strong quarter for the company. Once again, every number in this gold box on this page is a Q4 record. They also happen to be the highest levels of performance that we experienced this fiscal year. Total sales growth was up nearly 2% from prior year. We reached almost $5.2 billion in sales in the quarter. Organic sales were positive at roughly 3%. That was a little bit better than what we were expecting with our guidance. Divestitures were just very slight, unfavorable impact, and currency really turned into another headwind, almost 1%, unfavorable on currency. If you look at adjusted segment operating margins, Jenny mentioned this, but we did improve them 130 basis points from prior year. And for the first time in the history of the company, we generated 25.3% segment operating margins for our quarter. Same story with EBITDA margins. The increase was a little bit greater, 190 basis points. For the quarter, we did 26.3% adjusted EBITDA margins. You look at adjusted net income, $884 million of adjusted net income. That is up 12% from prior year, and that is a little bit better from prior year, and that is a 17 return on sales. Earnings per share, Jenny mentioned this as well, $6.77 that was up $0.69 or $0.11 from prior year. And it was just really an exceptionally strong quarter. It was a great way to finish the fiscal year, really driven universally across the globe by our engaged team members, and it was really just a nice way to finish the year. And it's another data point on Parker being able to deliver on our commitments. If we jump to Slide 10, this is just the bridge on that 11% improvement and adjusted earnings per share. Again, the story is very similar to what we saw all year, strong operating execution continues to drive earnings per share growth. If you look at segment operating income dollars, we increased by $90 million, or 7%. That's basically $0.54 or 80% of the EPS growth quarter-over-quarter. And we've talked a lot about this already, but the Aerospace system segment, once again, is really responsible for over 90% of the earnings per share growth when it comes to segment operating income. The diversified industrial North American businesses made up the rest. If you look at some of the below segment operating income line, corporate G&A was $0.16 favorable in the quarter. That really, again, was a result of some favorable items from the prior year just not repeating. Interest expense favorable, again, $0.17 versus prior year. That really is the result of our successful deleveraging efforts that we've been working hard on all year. Tax was unfavorable, $0.12 against the prior year, and that was really just from slightly higher operating tax rate and, of course, the higher EBIT. And then other expense and share count were just both a bit higher than last year, but really the story here has been consistent throughout the whole year, strong operating execution, driving margin expansion, really keeping an eye on cost controls, and being disciplined with our debt pay down. Just a nice way to finish the year. If we jump to Slide 11, let's look at the segment performance. You can see, again, margin expansion across every business here. Really proud to see that. Incrementals for the company and really every part of the business were incredibly strong. Order rates inflected positive. It's 1% that's positive. We're really happy to see that. And our backlog remained at near record levels. We have $10.9 billion in shippable backlogs, so that was a nice way to finish the year. Let's look at the diversified industrial segment, specifically in North America. The U.S. sales volume really remained strong, $2.2 billion in sales. Organic growth was negative 3, but that was a full point better than our expectations. Softness in North America continues to be driven by off-highway markets and transportation markets. But despite those lower volumes, we were able to increase adjusted segment operating margins by 150 basis points, and the North American businesses achieved 25, that is a record. It is all driven by operational execution, executing the win strategy, and really working hard to deliver for our customers. Order rates in North America also did improve to flat. That ends our negative string of year-over-year order declines, and we were really happy to see that. If you look at the International businesses, sales were slightly over $1.4 billion. Organic growth was down 2.5% the prior year, but again, that was also better than our forecast. Off-highway markets continue to be soft. And if you look really across the regions, in Europe, we were negative 5%, in Asia-Pac, negative 1%, which did slightly improve from Q3, and Latin America just continues to be robust at 19% organic growth. Same story on the margins. Margins increased 60 basis points in the quarter. Our International businesses generated 23.9% segment operating margins, and really just continue to be focused on simplification, productivity improvements, and I'm really happy to see this in the continued margin expansion from those International businesses. Order rates in International finished at minus 1%, with positive order rates in Asia driving the majority of the improvement. So nice to see that improve from Q3 as well. But if we look at Aerospace systems, right, that business continues to shine. Sales reached a record $1.5 billion in Aerospace. First time we've had $1.5 billion of sales in our Aerospace business. Organic growth, 19%, with double-digit growth across all the platforms within Aerospace. Operating margins, a brand-new record, increasing 130 basis points to 27.1%, and it really is driven by great volumes and unbelievable strength in these. Aerospace orders still remain strong. We did get the highest dollar level of orders for the year, and order rates continue to grow at plus 7%, so all things are looking up in Aerospace. If we go to the next slide, Slide 12, I just want to highlight our cash flow performance for the year. We finished FY’24 with record cash flow performance. CFOA increased 14% to a record of $3.4 billion, that's 17% of sales. Free cash flow, nearly $3 billion. That's also a record. That was 15% of sales. It's also a 15% increase from prior year, and we did achieve a conversion of 105%. I really just want to thank our team. This has been a lot of effort by a lot of people across the company, really made some nice improvements in working capital, really nice efforts on AP and AR, but I really want to note this year we were able to reduce inventory by over $120 million, really showcasing the efforts and focus that we've had on supply chain excellence. Across the globe, we continue to focus on being great generators and great deployers of cash. If we jump to Slide 13, you can see what we did with all that cash. We reduced debt by over $800 million in the quarter, $800 million in the quarter alone, and since closing Meggitt, we have now reduced debt by over $3.4 billion. We had a target to reduce debt by $2 billion in the fiscal year. We hit that target, and if you look at our leverage ratios, gross debt to adjusted EBITDA is now 2.1 times, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA is now 2, so it's exactly what we had forecast. And it really wraps up just a solid Q4 and a great fiscal year. So with that, I'm going to hand it back to Jenny, and I'm going to get to what I know everyone is focused on, and that is our outlook for FY’25.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you, Todd. So at our Investor Day in May, we introduced the six key market verticals of our business that you see on this slide. This slide represents our FY’25 sales growth forecast for each market vertical, resulting in organic growth of 2% to 5%. We are providing a realistic guide for fiscal year ‘25. At the midpoint of this guide, we have Aerospace at 8.5%, industrial North America at 2%, and industrial International at 1.5%. We are confident in growing EPS, achieving mega synergies, and continuing our track record of expanding margins. I'll get it back to Todd to review the guide in a little more detail.
Todd Leombruno :
Okay. Thank you, Jenny. So I'm now on Slide 16, and let me share some of the details of the FY’25 guide. Reported sales is forecast to be in the range of 1.5% to 4.5% or 3% at the midpoint. That will equate to approximately $20.5 billion in sales. That is really supported by outside support in our Aerospace businesses. Total sales for the company are modeled at 48% in the first half and 52% in the second half, so right in line with what we've historically done on sales splits. If you look specifically at organic growth, we are forecasting organic growth in the range of 2% to 5% or 3.5% at the midpoint, and we're expecting high single-digit growth from Aerospace, roughly 8.5%, and a gradual recovery in the industrial markets throughout FY’25. For the North American businesses, we are forecasting organic growth of 2% at the midpoint, and for the International businesses, we are forecasting growth of 1.5% organic at the midpoint for the full year. If you look at the mix on organic growth, it's 2.5% first half, 4.5% growth second half. And I will note that this guidance does include sales from the recently announced divestiture that Jenny mentioned. We are expecting that to close sometime in the second quarter, and we will give an update once that closes to the impact it has on the company. We are based on June 30 currency spot rates, and we're forecasting that to be a slight headwind of about 0.5% or $100 million on currency versus prior year. Jenny mentioned margin expansion, 50 basis points of margin expansion is our plan. And in FY’25, we're going to get that by continuing to do exactly what we've done over the last couple of years, is really implement and advance the win strategy. Adjusted segment operating margin guidance is 25.4% at the midpoint. There is a range of 20 basis points on either side of that, and segment operating income is split 47% first half, 53% second half. If you do the math on incrementals, we're expecting slightly at 40% incremental margins. That's a little bit higher than what we normally have had just based on the growth in Aerospace and of course, continued mega synergies. Few additional items on the guide. Corporate G&A is expected to be approximately $230 million. Interest expense is $450 million. That is a reduction of approximately $50 million from FY’24 and other expense is expected to be about $5 million. Tax rate, we are modeling a 23% tax rate and full year as reported EPS of $23 or adjusted EPS of $26.65. Both of those figures are at the midpoint and the range on those, both of those ranges is $0.35 on the high end and the low end. And if you look at adjusted EPS, it is split 47% first half, 53% second half. In respect to cash flow for the full year, we are giving a range of $3 billion to $3.3 billion. That is $3.15 billion at the midpoint. That will be approximately 15.3% of sales and of course, we expect free cash flow conversion to be greater than 100%. If you look at the far right column on this page, you'll see some specifics, specifically about Q1. And these are all at the midpoint. Reported sales, we are forecasting to be plus 1%. Organic growth is 1.5% positive. Adjusted segment margins of 25.2% and adjusted EPS is expected to be $6.05. As usual, we've provided several other details for guidance in the appendix. If you look at Slide 17, this is a very similar story to what we just did in FY’24. Segment operating income is the main driver of our EPS growth. That is $1.51 of EPS growth. We'll continue to have lower interest expense as a result of our great cash flow generation and our deleveraging efforts. That will add $0.34 to EPS. If you look at the tax rate, that will be an unfavorable number. Just a reminder that that will be a 23% model tax rate. That is a headwind of $0.41, really compared to a favorable rate that we had in the full year of FY’24. Our corporate G&A is slightly unfavorable, just $0.06. Other expense is $0.10 unfavorable, and share count is just another headwind of $0.07. But if you look at that all in, that's our walk to the $26.65 midpoint or 5% increase year-over-year. With that, Jenny, I'm going to hand it back to you and ask everyone to reference Slide 18.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thanks, Todd. As mentioned at our investor day and demonstrated in our results, this is a different Parker. We will add more than $10 to EPS and generate an additional 50% free cash flow by fiscal year ‘29. Our performance will continue to be accelerated from the wind strategy. We have a longer cycle and more resilient portfolio. We will experience growth from secular trends, and we will continue to be great generators and deployers of cash. Next slide, please. We are very proud to be celebrating 60 years on the New York Stock Exchange, and we'll ring the closing bell next week on Wednesday, August 14. I'll turn it back to Todd to get us started with Q&A.
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah, okay, Kevin, we are ready to open the lines for Q&A. And we'll take the first person in the queue.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Julian Mitchell from Barclays, your line is now live.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. Maybe just a first question around the first quarter outlook. I think first off, maybe to talk about the organic sales guide a little bit. I think you're dialing in a bit of a deceleration from the June quarter year-on-year, even with better orders. So maybe just any commentary around kind of very recent demand trends, any big movement month-to-month? And then sort of on the firm-wide P&L for Q1, you're basically saying flat EPS dollars year-on-year but with sales growth and margins up. So is there something below the line moving around?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah, Julian, this is Todd, I could take that. There is some seasonality just going from Q4 to Q1 if you look at our historical sales splits and our historical earnings split. What we're modeling here is in line with what we've historically done. Our organic growth guide for the total company is plus 1% for the quarter. That is driven by Aerospace, which continues to be a low double-digit organic growth is what we're expecting in Aerospace. But in the industrial businesses, both in North America and International, we are still expecting that to be down from prior year. So it's low single digits, but it's still down. We expect that to improve throughout the fiscal year, and this is just our best look at a roll-up. So you're right, it's a little bit of a soft industrial environment, but really offset by strength in Aerospace. If you look at margins, you know, what we just did in Q4 was all-time record for the quarter. We are guiding the 25.2%. That would be a Q1 record for the company. So it is not an easy number there. It really is, it would be a record. And to do that in light of some softness on the industrial side of the business, we're pretty proud about that. There's some below-the-line stuff that just is a first-quarter phenomenon, but nothing abnormal. We are experiencing earnings per share growth and net income growth in Q4. And that really supports what we see throughout the balance of the year.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful, thank you. And then maybe just my follow-up would be around Slide 15. So you have that very helpful color on the end-market verticals outlook for the year. Maybe just any context you could give around sort of, maybe fourth-quarter rates in some of those end markets. And I suppose in plant and industrial I'm particularly focused on. It seems like the CapEx environment is getting a little bit worse out there. Just wondered what you're seeing in that in plant and industrial piece, please.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Sure, Julian, be happy to do that. So if you look at in plant and industrial equipment, it improved from negative low single digit in Q3 to neutral in Q4. And as you can see on the slide that you're referencing, our FY’25 guide is forecasting neutral in the first half, low single digit in the second half, resulting in a low single digit for the full year. If you look at transportation, it was mid single digit negative in Q4, and that was primarily driven by automotive cars and light trucks. We are forecasting low single digit negative growth for transportation in the first half, mid single digit growth in the second half because we expect automotive to return to growth then. Work truck strength continues and heavy duty truck is positive now. So full year is at that low single digit growth. If you look at off-highway, it was high single digit negative in Q4. And we are forecasting the same for the first half, neutral for the second half, and mid single digit negative for the full year. Inside of there, we expect ag to be double digit negative this year, offset by construction, low single digit positive. So that's some color there. And then energy is forecasted to be low single digit for fiscal year ‘25, neutral in the first half, mid single digit in the second half. HVAC was low single digit negative for Q4, but it is improving. We are forecasting mid single digit growth for the first half. This is driven by a recent regulation change on refrigerant. And the second half growth forecast is at low single digit growth, but that's dependent on how fast some of these manufacturers get through their inventory and ramp up production under the new regulation. So for the full year, we have them at low single digit.
Julian Mitchell:
That's great, thank you.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question is coming from David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your line is now live.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you. My questions are on your comfort with the organic sales guide, right? We have 1.5% in the first quarter. We can back into 2Q, right? It's 3.5%. So that 2% faster growth in 2Q from 1Q, I'm the impression I get that's coming from industrial going from, say down 1.5%-2% in the first quarter to going slightly positive. And I just wanted to get some color on why do we see that turning flat to positive in 2Q? The comps get a little easier in North America, but just any color around that, particularly in the mix of orders. Are you seeing it more from distributors? Is it the lack of de-stocks, maybe from a year ago at the manufacturers? Just trying to get more comfortable with that delta on year-over-year growth for industrial 1Q and then getting essentially slightly positive for 2Q. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. So I'll take that, David. So some of the things that Todd mentioned earlier, total company order rates did go positive to 1% in Q4. Industrial North America improved to zero in Q4 after being negative for -- so that was a positive sign. And as Todd mentioned, that did end five quarters of negative order entry. International orders improved to negative 1% from negative 8%, and that was driven by Asia-Pacific. When you look at the channel, that destocking in the channel started over a year ago, and we believe that it has pretty much played out. We see the distribution trend going up, but I would say it's not a step change yet. We aren't actually seeing them add inventory. But these are all the things that are placed into our guide. Todd mentioned also the backlog remains strong. Q4 flat with Q3, dollars at near-record levels. So all of these things are baked into the guide and the reason that we feel good with the organic growth numbers we have in the first half.
Todd Leombruno :
David, I'd agree with everything Jenny said there. As usual, your math is spot on. You mentioned the comps. Comps are 2% easier in Q2 than against the prior. So it's a little bit of all that stuff, but I just wanted to call out the comps.
David Raso:
The reason I asked is it doesn't seem like there's much pricing -- new pricing for July 1. So I'm just trying to figure out what's the incremental bump may be. You're saying there's a little bit of comp and, obviously -- maybe some pickup --
Jennifer Parmentier :
We're back to a normal pricing environment. So it's more about those comps getting easier. If you look at North America, Todd mentioned that we expect Q1 to be flat to Q4. But that gradual industrial recovery is what we have really baked into the guide. And the growth uptick, mainly in the second half, is on easier comps.
David Raso:
And follow-up, if you could indulge me with one question, you don't have to answer it. But I'm curious, the verticals that we're now breaking out. We know the margins in Aerospace, obviously, they're highlighted separately. But the other 5 verticals, would you give us a sense of kind of force rank highest to lowest the margins between those 5, just so we get a sense of the mix looking at it in this format?
Jennifer Parmentier :
No, we're not going to disclose that, David.
David Raso:
That’s right. Thanks.
Todd Leombruno :
I would tell you, just look at those -- the Diversified Industrial segment. Those margins are -- they're record levels. The International businesses are not that far off from the North America businesses. And it's really just a factor of some softness in Europe and Asia kind of going through a recovery mode. But the margins are strong across all of those verticals, David.
Jennifer Parmentier :
All the businesses are performing really well in margin expansion.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question is coming from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Your line is now live.
Scott Davis :
Hey, good morning Jenny and Todd, congrats on another great year.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thanks, Scott. Thank you.
Scott Davis :
I know it probably hasn't -- the answer probably hasn't changed much since the Analyst Day, but perhaps you could give us a little bit of an update on M&A and what you're seeing. I think you clearly have the balance sheet space to probably step up and get a little bit more aggressive. So just a little bit of an update would be helpful, I think. Thanks.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah, you're right. Not a lot different, but obviously, we still have some debt to pay down. That's still our focus. But when we look to acquisitions, we're always working the pipeline. Those relationships, maintaining and building those relationships is really important to us. And we've been doing quite a bit of that. We're looking for those things where we are the clear best owner, with the interconnected technologies and building on the secular trends. But the one thing that I'd say the most is that we're looking for deals that are accretive to growth, resiliency, margins, cash flow and EPS, it really has to tick all of those boxes. And in some cases, it really is based on timing. So we like all of the 8 core technologies, and we see opportunities to build on the entire portfolio. We have different businesses that we're looking at, of all sizes. So a question that I get a lot too is, you've built with each one, is the next one going to be bigger than Meggitt? And that's not that's not something that we're focused on. We're focused on the right deal with all of that criteria that I just mentioned.
Scott Davis :
Okay. And Jenny, the portfolio optimization and the small divestiture, is the lens here that you guys are looking at -- the Slide 15 lens that -- the key market vertical stuff that's outside of that vertical? Or is there a -- or is it more a function of kind of margin growth potential and kind of more traditional metrics?
Jennifer Parmentier :
It's the latter. We have to see that it's part of our core technologies, our core product offering. Obviously, this business was in Aerospace, and that's a market that we're very fond of. But it's the future profile of the business, both margin expansion and growth.
Scott Davis :
Okay. That makes ton of sense. Thank you. I’ll pass it on. Appreciate it.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Mig Dobre from Baird. Your line is now live.
Mig Dobre :
Thank you. Good morning. I guess one of the things that kind of stood out to me over the past couple of quarters within your industrial technology platforms is that motion systems and low-end process control kind of behave the way we would sort of expect them to in the kind of industrial downturn we're experiencing, this whole down high single-digit revenue type. But your filtration, engineered materials platform has been pretty remarkably stable. So I guess my question is, looking back, why has that been the case? Is this sort of different than what you've seen in prior downturns? And is there an impact on margin from a mix standpoint within your industrial business from this filtration business hanging in there a little bit better?
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. So thanks for the question, Mig. So if you think back to the on-purpose strategy that we had with our acquisitions to double the size of filtration, double the size of engineered materials and Aerospace. We've done that with the last four acquisitions. So if you take filtration for instance, with the acquisition of CLARCOR, we greatly increased our aftermarket exposure in filtration. And that business has become more resilient than it was in the past. And when you look at Lord, into engineered materials, that's where we picked up a lot of that longer cycle business. And so you see those two groups behaving a little bit differently than the other two that you mentioned. That is definitely the main reason.
Mig Dobre :
And the margin impact?
Jennifer Parmentier :
The margin impact is accretive, just like the criteria that we give to the acquisitions that we would do in the future. These have been -- those have both been very successful deals where synergies were hit. And they continue to use The Win Strategy to improve margins.
Todd Leombruno :
Let me give you a little color on this. If you're worried, we agree with you, the top line has acted exactly as we expected it. But I would tell you the margin expansion has been equally generated by all of these businesses. When you look at that record that we put up for the quarter, 25.4, that motion systems platform, that flow and process control, those were equally contributing to those margin ramp.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. Wouldn't have happened without those two areas.
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. And when you look at the cash that we generate, those businesses are stellar cash flow generators as well. So it's all part of the mix. It's all why we love the portfolio as it sits, and it's helped generating all-time record numbers.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Those technologies are a very important part of our portfolio and participate in the secular trends that we talk about.
Mig Dobre :
Thanks for the color. I’ll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Jamie Cook from Truist Securities. Your line is now live.
Jamie Cook :
Hi, good morning. And congratulations on a nice quarter and guide. I guess my first question, Todd or Jenny, just looking at the implied incrementals for the year, the 40%-ish, it's a very good incremental margin above your targeted range on lower organic growth relative to your longer-term guide. So is there anything unusual in your -- in the mix this year that would allow you to have above-average incrementals on a low organic growth versus your targeted range? And then I guess the follow-up question is, once you get to the 4% to 6% organic growth, like why should your incremental margins be better than that just given what we're seeing already today? And then, Jenny, you're probably not going to want to answer this, but I'm going to ask it anyway. The order surprised me both on Industrial North America and on International. Anything you can do to talk to like the cadence of what you saw since April? And where were there -- did the orders outperformed your expectations as well? Thank you.
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah, Jamie, let me start on the incrementals. This is Todd. Thank you for the recognition of the quarter. We appreciate that. You're right. The incrementals are a little bit higher than what we have historically forecast. That 30% is really kind of over the cycle, so sometimes we think we could do better, sometimes it might be a challenge on the top line. But the way the math works is a little bit funny, right? Aerospace, with the strong growth in Aerospace and the margin profile that Aerospace is operating at, it is driving the incrementals for the company a little bit higher than normal. We also are committed to the $300 million in synergies that we have promised for Meggitt. We expect $50 million of incremental synergies in FY '25 versus FY '24. So that's putting Aerospace a little bit higher than historically where we've been at. And when you look at the Industrial businesses, we still see margin expansion even in a low-growth top line environment. So when you put all that together, that's how we came up with the numbers. So we feel really good about that. But the team is energized and focused on making sure that we deliver that.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. And from an order standpoint, Jamie, on the May call, I did something that I normally don't do, but made the comment that we were encouraged at the start of the quarter with what we were seeing in orders. And obviously, that continued and we saw ourselves get to the order condition that we're talking about today at the end of Q4. So that played out well for us. But what we have in the guide today is supported by the comments that we've made at those Q4 orders. So no additional color on orders.
Jamie Cook :
Okay. Thank you. Nice job.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Jamie.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.
Joe Ritchie :
Hi, good morning, Jenny and Todd, a terrific year, not just the quarter, it was a great year.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you.
Joe Ritchie :
I'm going to tackle the margin question maybe slightly differently. And so, look, the exit rate for the Industrial businesses were really strong, right, both in North America and International. If you take a look at the 25% North America and the 23.9% in International, squarely either at the high end of your guidance for this year or the midpoint for the International segment. I guess why isn't it going to be better than that? If we're going to expect some growth, and typically, you guys have shown that you could expand margins even in a no-growth environment.
Todd Leombruno :
Well, Joe, I'll start. I'm looking at Jenny, she's smiling. We just a few months ago gave you the FY '29 targets. And if you look at this, this is right on track with those FY '29 targets. Aerospace, we're going to expand 100 basis points off of an all-time record for that business. And when you look at the Industrial businesses, we're showing margin expansion there as well, and really an unbelievably low growth top line number. So we feel really good about that. If you look at the cadence throughout the year, every one of these quarters would be a record margin number for us, and it increases, outside of Q2, which is a little bit of seasonal volume, they're aggressive numbers. So that's what we feel today. That's what we have confidence in. And that was kind of all that went into our guide.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. I would just back that up by saying, obviously, it was a fantastic year, it's a fantastic exit rate. But this guide is realistic. And this isn't a slam dunk for our teams. We believe in The Win Strategy, we believe in our ability to continue to expand margins, but this is a -- this isn't easy.
Joe Ritchie :
Okay. Got it. I'm sure you'll make it look easy. But the follow-up question is the --
Jennifer Parmentier :
We'll try.
Joe Ritchie :
Yeah. So you mentioned that you're still planning to continue to pay down debt. You got your leverage ratio, your net leverage down to two turns, so congrats on that. I know there was a question earlier around M&A. So just talk to us a little bit about what's the kind of right leverage ratio that you want to get to before you get a little bit more front-footed with capital deployment on the M&A side. And then is there an opportunity to continue to buy back shares as well? Like how are you thinking about that priority going forward?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah, Joe, it's a great question. It's something we talk about constantly here. We've been very clear, our target was to get to and operate around a 2 net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage. We got there, we're very proud about that. It was not easy, but the team worked really hard to get there. The way our debt is structured, we have a service debt that goes all the way out into 2026. So we feel good that we will not -- we'll be putting our cash to good work as we continue to pay down that debt. But I would tell you, our preference continues to be to deploy our capital optionality towards deals, as Jenny mentioned it earlier. It's going to be the right deal. It's not going to be one that just happens to be available. It's got to be able to grow the top line differently. It's got to be accretive to our margins. It's going to have to be EPS accretive. And it's going to have to help generate cash in a way that's different than what the company has been able to generate. And if we can't get those done, we have no worries about deploying that elsewhere. We're going to keep our dividend record going. And our share buyback is $200 million a year. We're going to do that at a bare minimum, and we will be active. I could assure you that.
Jennifer Parmentier :
And if the timing and the deal don't line up the way we'd like one to in the future, we'll always buy back shares, like Todd said. I mean, we believe in Parker.
Joe Ritchie :
Great. Thank you, both.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question is coming from Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies. Your line is now live.
Stephen Volkmann :
Great. Thanks for taking the question. Todd, I just missed it when you said the Meggitt synergies in FY '24.
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. We increased those Meggitt synergies. I think that was in the second quarter or the third quarter, $200 million is what the accumulated synergies were at the end of FY '24. We're committed to the $300 million number. That would be $50 million in FY '25 and an additional $50 million in FY '26.
Stephen Volkmann :
Got it. Thank you. And then I'm trying to think, just mentally, if I back that out, how much did mix add relative to sort of other drivers for the margin in Aerospace?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. I mean everything in Aerospace is really booming right now. Aftermarket is especially strong. You know the profile of that business. That is the highest-margin business we have, and it's been really robust. So if you look at what they did for the quarter, I think it was 27% margins. If you look at what we are forecasting for FY '25, it's another 100 basis points of margin expansion in Aerospace. And that gets us 27.5% ballpark. So really strong margins in Aerospace.
Stephen Volkmann :
Great. I guess what I'm trying to think about is, assuming that the aftermarket OE mix kind of normalizes at some point, maybe that's a big assumption, I don't know. But if it does, should we be worried about potential kind of margin headwinds in that scenario?
Todd Leombruno :
No. When you look at our team -- of all of the forecast tools that we have that we've improved across the company, our best tools remain in the Aerospace verticals. And I would tell you, our team, we've had multiple discussions with the team. We feel really good about that. And I don't want to speak outside of FY '25, but we feel really good about what '25 has in store.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. We feel very positive about air traffic growth. So we're not concerned about that.
Stephen Volkmann :
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your line is now live.
Nathan Jones :
Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones :
I'm going to go back to the revenue guide. For as long as I can remember, Parker has been guiding for a revenue split, 1H to 2H of 58% to 42%. So I wanted to ask, you've got a much larger backlog now than you've had historically. So potentially some better visibility out into that. So I'm just interested on what you're visibility into that second half revenue guidance is based on where the backlog is. And what kind of macroeconomic assumptions that you've got baked in there? A lot of peers and competitors have been talking about lower CapEx spending going forward, but it's -- maybe that you guys went into the downturn first, you're coming out of it first. But just any color you can give us there.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Well, just to run through it a little bit. Obviously, for Aerospace, as we talked about, we have 8.5% organic growth out there. In the first half is at 11%, second half is at 6%, and that's really because the comps get pretty tough when you get into the second half. So obviously, we feel really good about Aerospace. We have good visibility over -- we have a high backlog there, right? So no concerns there. When you look at North America, as Todd mentioned, we're guiding to 2% organic growth, minus 1% in the first half. And as we've talked about, that's based off of a typical Q1 and based off of what we see today in the orders and the information that we have from our customers. Again, we expect continued softness in off-highway all year and transportation in the first half. So kind of going back to those forecasts for the market verticals. We do expect a gradual industrial recovery, as we've mentioned here, and that's what we have baked in. So again, the growth uptick is mainly in the second half, and it is somewhat on easier comps. Those are the inputs that we're looking at. In International, 1.5% organic growth, again, negative 1% in the first half, second half at 3.5%. As we mentioned, order rates improved, but they're still in negative territory. Our guidance assumes that Asia-Pacific turns positive, offset by continued weakness in Europe. So that's what we're looking at right now. Again, softness around end-markets in Europe, neutral growth in the guide for the full year. So that's what we have built into the guide.
Nathan Jones :
Do you need things like interest rate cuts to spur some of that recovery that you're looking for in the second half in various parts of the industrial economy? Kind of what are the underlying assumptions that you've got that inform that expectation?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. Nathan, this is Todd. Those certainly would be helpful, there's no doubt about it. What we have baked into the numbers is really -- again, you've heard us talk about our AI forecast. So we have a variety of macroeconomic forecasts that we're using. There's nothing outside of anything that you're not seeing yourself. It really is driven by great Aerospace performance, a gradual recovery in the Industrial markets, mainly in the second half of the fiscal year. And that's based off of what we've seen orders do for many, many, many years. We were really glad to see North American orders turn not negative, and we were really happy to see the Industrial orders move to minus 1%. So all of that is what we've been using to build our forecast.
Nathan Jones :
Awesome. Thank you for taking my questions.
Todd Leombruno :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Next question is coming from Jeffrey Sprague from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now live.
Jeffrey Sprague :
Thank you. Good morning everyone. A lot of ground covered here. A couple of things from me. First, just on the divestiture, Jenny or Todd. I think it sounds like it's kind of part and parcel to your kind of normal process of reviewing the portfolio and assets. But should we view this as largely kind of a one-off? And obviously, it just kind of came with something you recently acquired? Or there's kind of other pieces here and there that could be methodically coming out as your margin structure has moved up, right, and your threshold for what's good enough rises, does that cause some additional things to shake out of the portfolio?
Jennifer Parmentier :
At Investor Day, we mentioned that we would continue to trim around the portfolio, but not anything significant. All of our businesses have to perform. Every year we go through an analysis of our businesses, a best owner analysis. But again, nothing significant, Jeff. It would be just some trimming around the portfolio.
Jeffrey Sprague :
And could you also just share with us your view on Aero for 2025 in terms of the big buckets, commercial OE versus aftermarket military OE versus aftermarket?
Jennifer Parmentier :
Absolutely. So on commercial OE, we are forecasting high single digit, really based off of narrow-body rates and wide-body ramp-up. Commercial aftermarket, low double digits. And again, air traffic recovery, broad-based growth there, been very strong as we've talked about today. Defense OE mid-single digit increase, increasing defense budget and continued demand for legacy fighters. And then defense aftermarket, high single digit. And again, pointing to those public-private partnerships we have with the depots, that's really proved to be great growth for us. And again, retrofits, repairs, upgrades. So really it's going to be a strong year for Aerospace, high single digit at 8.5%.
Jeffrey Sprague :
I’ll leave it there. Thanks a lot.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you.
Todd Leombruno :
Appreciate, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
I just wanted to ask another question on the divestiture. And we all have the revenue number that was in the press release. But I guess, any color on whether the divestiture will be accretive to margins? And can you just confirm that that's all coming out of the Industrial North America segment?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah, Nicole, this is Todd. It will all come out of the Industrial North America segment businesses. We do expect that to close sometime in Q2. It will be margin accretive, there's no doubt about it. I'd rather wait until we get the actual close date to give you exact color on that. Jenny talked about it. It's a great business, just maybe not perfectly aligned with our core products. If you look at the enterprise value that we got for that business, it's $560 million of enterprise value. So there will be a gain on that. And like I said, we'll be looking to share more of that once it finally closes.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. That's really helpful. And then on the outlook for International, it sounds like you guys are expecting Europe to be down again. If you could kind of confirm your thoughts there. And I know it's small for you, but any color on what you're seeing in China. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Yeah. So the guide does assume that Asia Pacific turns positive, offset by continued weakness in Europe. So the full year for Europe is neutral to fiscal year '24. So just continued softness there. What I would say in China, growth improved to negative low single digits in Q4, and Q4 orders increased due to some project orders. So there's some positive there.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thank you. I’ll pass it on.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Nicole.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you.
Todd Leombruno :
Kevin, I think just in light of time, I think we have 5 minutes left, maybe one last question.
Operator:
Final question today is coming from Brett Linzey from Mizuho Securities. Your line is now live.
Brett Linzey :
Hey, good morning. Congratulations.
Jennifer Parmentier :
Thank you.
Brett Linzey :
Just a question on the margin outlook, but specifically gross margins. So another strong year in '24, but you're now seeing a better mix of secular in these applications. Are you embedding a higher-than-normal gross margin lift in the '25 outlook as you're seeing some traction here?
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. Brett, this is Todd. Thanks for noticing that. We've been working hard on all elements of profitability for a long time here. When you look at that 50 basis points of segment operating income expansion, the vast majority of that will come in the gross margin line.
Brett Linzey :
Okay. Got it. Great. And then I apologize if I missed it. On off-highway, so I appreciate the color on adverse construction, but I was wondering if you could dimension the outlook between OE, the distribution business in Off-Highway, and what's your level of visibility is on some of the OE inventories. Thanks.
Jennifer Parmentier :
I mean, I don't have a good picture of that that I could share with you today, but perhaps we can pick that up in a callback.
Brett Linzey :
I’ll leave it there. Thanks a lot.
Todd Leombruno :
Appreciate, Brett.
Operator:
Thank you. We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.
Todd Leombruno :
Okay, Kevin, thank you. This concludes our earnings webcast. Thanks to everyone for joining us today. As always, we do appreciate your attention, interest and support of Parker. If anyone's got any more follow-up questions, whether that's on the quarter, the year or the FY '25 guide, Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available throughout the day and even if tomorrow, if needed. I hope everyone has a great day. We appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
Operator:
Greetings. Welcome to Parker-Hannifin Corporation's Fiscal 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please note that today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Leombruno, you may now begin your presentation.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Rob, and good day, everyone. As Rob said, this is Parker's fiscal year 2024 third quarter earnings release webcast. This is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. With me on the call today is our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Jenny Parmentier. We appreciate your interest in Parker, and we thank you for joining us today. If we move to Slide 2, you will find our disclosures on our forward-looking projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Actual results could vary from our forecast based on the items listed here. The press release, this presentation and reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures that we will discuss today were released this morning and are available under the Investors section on parker.com. We're going to start today with Jenny reviewing the highlights of our strong third quarter performance, and then she's going to highlight how the competitive advantage of our high-performance culture is getting our global team members to deliver consistent margin expansion. I will follow up then with some color on the financial results of the quarter, and I will provide some assumptions to our increase in the fiscal year 2024 guidance. We're going to end the call with a Q&A session, and we'll try to take as many questions as we possibly can. Just a reminder, please try to limit your questions to one and a follow-up, if needed, so we can get to all of those in the queue. With that, I now draw your attention to Slide 3, and Jenny, I will hand it over to you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Q3 was another quarter where the team delivered outstanding results executing the Win Strategy. Starting with safety, a 17% reduction in recordable incidents over prior Q3. Safety has been and will remain our top priority. Record sales of $5.1 billion in the quarter, with organic growth of 1.2%, record adjusted segment operating margin of 24.7%, that's a 150 basis point improvement over prior year with all segments expanding margins. Adjusted EPS growth of 10%, along with 12.6% year-to-date free cash flow margin. Aerospace demand remains robust and was again a significant driver of our performance in the quarter. Our transformed portfolio and strong performance are driving an increase to full year guidance. Next slide, please. Those of you who know us well know, this is the Win Strategy. This is our business system focused on the fundamentals. It is a proven strategy. We trust the process, and this is how we deliver results. Very simply put, this strategy works. I first used the Win Strategy when I joined Parker 16 years ago as a plant manager. I very quickly learned that it wasn't just words written on a piece of paper. I was trusted, empowered and expected to use the tools in the Win Strategy to improve my plan. I've since used it as a General Manager, Group President and as an Executive Officer of the company. Based on a solid foundation of culture and values, we pursue four goals
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jenny. It's great to see those results. Let's take a look at the quarter. This is just a high-level financial summary for the company. As Jenny said, Q3 was another strong quarter for Parker. Once again, every number in that gold highlighted box is a Q3 record for the company. If you'll see total sales, we did grow -- it's up slightly from prior year. We reached $5.1 billion in sales. Organic growth was just over 1% positive, slight negative impact from divestitures. That's just 0.3%. Our sales and currency did shift to a slight headwind this quarter, not terrible at 0.6%, but it's the first time the sheer currency has been a headwind. If you look at the adjusted segment operating margins, that's an improvement of 150 basis points versus prior year. We did finish at 24.7%. And a similar story on EBITDA margins. We finished at 25.5%. That is an increase of 130 basis points from prior year. Moving to adjusted net income. We generated $851 million of net income. That is an loss of 16.8%. And adjusted earnings per share were $6.51, and that's a $0.58 or 10% increase from prior year. Net income is also an increase of 10% from prior year. Q3 was really just a solid quarter when you look at the sales, when you look at segment operating income, when you look at net income and earnings per share, each one of those generated the highest levels that we produced this fiscal year. So a very strong quarter. If we can move to Slide 9. This just shows the walk of that $0.58 or 10% increase in adjusted EPS. I'm really glad to say again, the main driver of segment operating income dollars increasing. We increased by $76 million in the quarter. That accounted for $0.45 of the EPS growth. That's nearly 80% of the EPS growth in the quarter. Again, Jenny mentioned this, but it's just impressive operating performance across the company, but specifically, the strength in our Aerospace Systems segment was again a main contributor this quarter. Interest expense is again favorable. That really is the result of our successful efforts to deleverage after the Meggitt transaction. Tax was favorable $0.06 versus prior year. Simply, that's just a few discretes that are certainly hard to predict. Corporate G&A was higher from prior year, but really, that's just more a result of prior year favorable items not repeating this fiscal year and you can see other expense and share count were just a little bit higher than prior year. So the theme really remains the same this quarter as it has in the first half of the year. Our team members are generating strong operating performance that is driving margin expansion, really in a tepid top line industrial environment. And our debt paydown efforts are really reducing our interest cost. So it's just great to see the team work together to generate those results. If we go to Slide 10, this is the segment performance. You can see we continue to see positive growth as a result of the higher concentration of Aerospace in our portfolio. Margin expansion does continue across all of our businesses. That is great to see. Order dollars did remain strong against a very tough comp in the prior year. Order dollars did improve sequentially from last quarter. So we're happy to see that. If you look at the North American businesses, sales volume reached $2.2 billion. Organic growth was down 4.6%, as you can see on the slide, but that was in line with our expectations. It was driven by softness in off-highway and transportation markets specifically. We did continue to see destocking throughout the quarter, but I will say it did continue at a decelerating rate. Despite the down volume, margins increased 120 basis points to a third quarter record of 24.1% in the North American business. This just really is a shining example of operation excellence and how the teams continue to see opportunities to drive margins even higher. Order rates in North America did remain constant with last quarter. They finished at minus 4 in the quarter. If we move to the international businesses, you can see sales volume reached $1.4 billion. Organic growth was down 3.1% on those businesses. But again, that was in line with our guidance. If you look at EMEA, that was the most negative at negative 5.1 and just some contraction again in highway transportation and implant industrial markets. Asia Pac growth was minus 2.8%. China remains generally soft. Latin America is a strong point. They continue to be positive at 19% versus prior year. What we're really proud about is the team, even on that lower volume, expanded margins by 10 basis points, and they also generated a third quarter record of 23.5%. Focus remains on productivity improvements and cost controls in these businesses with orders in the international businesses at minus 8. In EMEA, we are seeing some choppiness on orders, while Asia Pac we are seeing some improvements. If we look at Aerospace, Aerospace delivered another stellar quarter for the company. Sales reached a record of $1.4 billion, that's the highest we've ever had in the aerospace business. Organic growth was 18% across every market segment we have in aerospace. This is the fifth quarter of double-digit organic growth within Aerospace. Aftermarket strength continues to be outstanding. This quarter, we were up 26% in the commercial aftermarket area and operating margins are fantastic, reaching a new record, increasing by 320 basis points versus prior year to come in at 26.7%. Demand just remains robust, aftermarket strength continues and the team is just doing great driving margins ever higher. Order rates in aerospace continue to be very strong at plus 15. So just great performance across all of our businesses. If we go to Slide 11, let's talk about cash flow. So first of all, I think most of you have probably seen this last week, our Board approved a quarterly dividend payout of $1.63 per share. That is a 10% increase over the prior dividend payout. With that increase, this does increase our annual record of paying higher dividend dollars per year from 67 years to now 68 years, just an unbelievably impressive record. Looking at cash flow. We've got a record on cash flow of $2.1 billion of cash flow from operations, that's 14.6% of sales. That is a 20% increase over prior year. And I said it already, but it is a record. When you look at free cash flow, we did $1.9 billion that is 12.6% to sales and that also is a 22% increase versus prior year. The team really remains focused on being great generators and great deployers of cash. We are reaffirming our full year target of free cash flow dollars of over $3 billion, and we certainly are committed to free cash flow conversion of over 100 for the full fiscal year. So great performance on cash. Let's move to Slide 12. I'm happy to give an update on our deleveraging progress. We did reduce debt by over $420 million in the quarter. Since we closed the Mega transaction, it was just six quarters ago. We have reduced debt by over $2.6 billion. That, coupled with the continued expansion in EBITDA growth, we have reduced our leverage by over 40% just since the close. Both of those are ahead of our original commitment. And you can see on the slide here, gross debt to adjusted EBITDA is now 2.3 times and net debt is down to 2.2 times. We still feel confident that we will get the $2 billion of debt paid down in this fiscal year and we certainly are on track to achieve net leverage of 2 times by June of this fiscal year, just in two months. So if we go to Slide 13, just some color on our guidance. We are reaffirming our full year organic growth midpoint and increasing our margin and earnings per share expectations for the year. Our reported sales growth for the year is expected to be 4% at the midpoint. And on organic growth, we are increasing aerospace once again. We're increasing it by 300 basis points to 15% for the full year. Both North America and international diversified industrial businesses. Organic growth is now forecasted to be negative 2.5. But for the company, full year organic growth remains the same at 1.5% positive. So you can see how aerospace is helping the portfolio on our top line. We're raising adjusted segment operating margins. We're raising that to 24.6. That's 30 basis points higher than prior guidance, and that now forces the full year margin expansion to be approximately 170 basis points versus prior year. Corporate G&A and interest, unchanged from prior guide. Tax rate is down a little bit, just really based on Q3 actual results. We expect that to be 22% now. Full year as-reported EPS has increased to $20.90 and full year adjusted EPS has increased to $24.75. Both of those are at the midpoint and there's a range narrowed to plus or minus $0.10 for the fourth quarter. Finally, if you look at the fourth quarter, our adjusted EPS is expected to be $6.13 at the midpoint. So as usual, we've got some more specifics in the appendix if needed. And now, I'm going to hand it back to you, Jenny, and I ask everyone to turn to Slide 14.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. A few key messages to close this out as we near the end of our fiscal year 2024, our high-performance culture built a better and more resilient Parker. We will continue to drive operational excellence through the Win Strategy. As mentioned a couple of times already, aerospace demand remains robust, and our transformed portfolio drives growth. And finally, Parker is and will continue to be a great generator and deplorer of cash. Next slide, please. We are looking forward to sharing our story at our investor meeting on May 16th. I will be joined by our President and Chief Operating Officer, Andy Ross, our Chief Financial Officer, Todd Leombruno, and our Vice President of Investor Relations, Jeff Miller. Our key themes for the meeting are transforming the company, how we are positioned for growth from secular trends, operational excellence and financial performance. Thank you again for joining the call today. And I'll turn it back over to Todd for Q&A.
Todd Leombruno:
Rob, we're ready to open the lines for Q&A, and we'll take whatever you got first in the queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question in the queue today is Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Davis:
Hey. Good morning, Jenny and Todd and Jeff.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning, Scott.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning.
Scott Davis:
Look forward to you in a couple of weeks. I got a bunch of questions, but I'll try to keep it brief and pass it on. Just as it relates to M&A, what just mark-to-market a little bit on what you guys are thinking on your pipeline, what your comfort level and stepping forward right now, kind of what good looks like? And are we more -- are we looking at more bolt-on-ish type stuff at this point? Or are there other kind of Meggitt type deals that are out there?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, I often say, Scott, we really like Meggitt, and we wish there were a lot of Meggitt like deals out there for us. Listen, we -- first and foremost, as Todd was talking about, we're committed to paying this debt down, right? We're doing it earlier than we said we would. We're forecasting to be at two times by the end of this fiscal year. But we're always working on that pipeline, building the relationships. The pipeline is robust. There are targets in there of various sizes, some bolt-ons, some larger ones. Really, it's about making sure that we have the right one. It has to be accretive to growth, margins, follow the secular trends and really be the right fit for Parker, fit with our interconnected technologies and be the right business. So we continue to work that pipeline, and we'll have more to talk about that in the future.
Scott Davis:
Okay. I look forward to that. And a smaller issue, but when you think about commercial aftermarket in Aero being up 26%, that is -- those are big numbers. And help us understand at the customer level are they taking on more inventory? Do they -- how do they generally manage their inventory? Or how do you guys at least help them manage our inventory so that you don't experience double ordering and things like that. And perhaps just making sure we understand the risk profile of those types of growth rates and the sustainability? Thanks.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. It's a good question, Scott. I haven't heard of any concerns of double ordering in aerospace. I think there's still supply chain constraints out there that everybody has their orders. There's long lead times but no, I've heard nothing about double ordering. As we go through this balance of air traffic returning to pre-COVID levels, different manufacturers ramping up to higher rates, it's a balance and MRO, I believe, will continue to be strong. So for the foreseeable future, we see that as strong.
Todd Leombruno:
Scott, one thing -- you probably know this, Scott. But with Meggitt, specifically in the quarter, our aftermarket business is 47% of the total aerospace business. So it's up Jenny mentioned the air traffic is back to pre-COVID numbers. And it's really a combination of expanded aftermarket mix within the company.
Scott Davis:
Yes. Well, it looks like they certainly need to replace some wheels and brakes based on what we read out there. So good luck guys. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Good morning.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a follow-up on aerospace and aero margins. You guys have really emphasized one-time mix over the past one-time mix benefits over the past couple of quarters I guess, high spare impact. But you know, we are up sequentially from 1Q, 2Q, what's going so well?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, as we were just talking about the mix, Q3 was actually -- aftermarket mix was actually 48%. Year-to-date, we're at [Indiscernible]. So the combination of what we had in our portfolio and adding to what we got with Meggitt, it's been a big increase. And it is excellent growth from our braking business in other areas. Also military aftermarket growth is higher because of these public private partnerships we have with the Department of Defense. So a lot of things going well really pleased and well positioned with this portfolio of complementary technologies, so really positive about this going well into the future.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. And just a question on orders in North America, I think you highlighted softness enough highway and transportation, maybe you could just walk us through what are you seeing on the mobile, and I mean, it's been a while since we used those terms. But mobile and stationary and am I correct just to think that it's a lot of Ag and Class A trucks? And just how much visibility do you have because you are saying the stock can continue at a decelerating rate. But where do you see the bottom?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Okay. So I'll just -- I'll do a little run-through of the markets. Obviously, we know aerospace is very strong, and we've raised our guidance because of that. If you take a look at energy, oil and gas, that remains positive. Implant industrial equipment, low single-digit negative, more negative in Europe, less in North America. Transportation, mid mid-single-digit negative, Automotive is down globally. And I would again say that Europe is more negative there. Off-highway, high single-digit negative, primarily construction and Ag and both of them are equally negative, Andrew. Again, Europe a little more negative. When we take a look at HVAC refrigeration, it is still double-digit negative, but it's some pretty tough comps to prior it was quite positive this time last year, mainly driven by the residential business. It is improving. There's an improvement in commercial and as you were just mentioning, destocking, distribution is slightly negative, and we saw that destocking lingering through the quarter. So when we take a look at where we're at today, Industrial North America orders have been negative for five quarters now. And we're still very proud of it, still guiding to 1.5% organic growth for the company. And historically, you would see that orders go negative for an average of six core years. And both portfolio, total Parker went negative same quarter as industrial North America. So a big difference here. What I would also say is the backlog remains strong. Backlog dollars are at near record levels. And as we spoke about in quarters past, consistent coverage really holding in there, as we've talked about before, pretty much double what they've been historically. And while we have Q3 order conditions reflected in the guide, I would have to say that April orders are off to a better start, and we might be seeing the end of destocking here.
Andrew Obin:
I’ll take that. Thanks so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
David Raso:
Hi. Thank you. The implied fourth quarter for international, the organic growth rate weakening from the third quarter. Can you just help us maybe geographically or however you like to take us through that cadence? And is there any sort of visibility on when those declines start to lessen.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Thank you, David. So obviously, orders went from minus 5 in Q2 in international to minus 8. So that is definitely what is reflected in the guide. Destocking continued, as I was mentioning earlier, softness in off-highway and transportation and industrial equipment. We just really see that the macroeconomic indicators are still in contraction in Europe. Really, the sales for the quarter were in line with our expectations, but the orders in the quarter are really what has driven us to take that down in Q4 and slightly for the year, we had -- had a negative two for the year, and now we have it at a negative 2.5%. So we're not seeing the same thing that we're seeing in North America at the start of this quarter. So not signaling any turn there yet, but we're keeping a close eye on it.
David Raso:
Okay. I'm just trying to get a sense of when, if North America, you sound a little more encouraged for April. I'm just making sure the international doesn't sort of dampen what -- I would suspect you think maybe North America organic can turn positive in a couple of quarters. Maybe sort of if you kind of address that thought, if you could?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Usually, North America, historically, the average has been six quarters, and then we see a turn, right? And international has just -- it's been choppy. It's been really choppy over the last several quarters. So it's hard to call at what point that would follow North America. We're just going to have to keep a close eye on it, and we'll have a better update for you next quarter.
David Raso:
And then lastly, price cost. Can you give us an update on how that's trending? And I'll hop off. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. So we're back to what we would call a normal pricing environment. We're doing our twice a year price increases. As a reminder with price, we went out early and often. We believe that price to be sticky. We still have inflation out there. And I think we've done a really good job. The team has done a good job at maintaining our margin neutrality. So we're back to more of a normal environment right now.
David Raso:
Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Ritchie:
Hi. Good morning.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie:
And so we're getting lots of questions, obviously, on the turn in North America. And I'm just curious, so really helpful to hear that April is a little bit better and that we maybe were towards the end of destocking. Just curious like how do you think that this potential inflection actually will work? And what I'm asking specifically is with your distributors, what are the conversations like you feel like things could be low and slow just given we've been -- we've seen this destocking now for several quarters. Just any comment around that would be really helpful.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, I would tell you that the distributors have been positive for a couple of quarters now, right? They've been sharing with us how they've been able to participate in some nice work with some reinvestment in some factories, maybe some early days on some of these mega CapEx projects. But it's really a positive sentiment. I wouldn't tell you at this point, is indicating a slow move or a steep climb. It's just what we're seeing early in this quarter. It's just really kind of looking like we might be seeing bottom.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Yes. No, that's great to hear. I guess maybe just kind of thinking through also the questions around the industrial international business as well. Like -- you guys have done a really good job of expanding margins even at a time when things haven't -- volumes have been negative. I'm just curious like if we're if it's slower to pick up in the international business, how do you feel about the margin trajectory of that business from here?
Jennifer Parmentier:
I have a lot of confidence in these teams. I mean in this environment for the last several quarters, they've just done a great job with cost control and expanding margins. These teams, as I mentioned earlier, their practitioners of the Win Strategy, and they know what levers to pull. We've commented in the past, we're never waiting for a downturn or a recession or anything that might happen. We're constantly looking at making sure that we expand margins.
Joe Ritchie:
Awesome. Thanks, Jenny, look forward to seeing you in a couple of weeks.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. Congratulations on a nice quarter. I guess, Jenny, if you look at your implied margins for this year, the 24.6% were sort of already at, your targeted margins, which I'm assuming -- which you guys will address at your Analyst Day. But I'm just thinking, as you're focused on igniting organic growth for Parker-Hannifin in total just brought across the portfolio. To what degree do you have to balance the ability to improve margins much more from here just for most industrial companies having a 25% margin or whatever is pretty good. I'm just wondering if we have to put a ceiling sort of on the margins to get the organic growth. And then my second question is -- or would you to, I guess, you don't have to, but would you consider that strategy? And then my second question, just back to the M&A question again. I mean, obviously, Meggitt has been a big positive for you guys. Longer cycle business is giving you guys the ability to grow the organically as industrials weaker. Do we need sort of more long late-cycle aerospace businesses, do you think to have a more balanced portfolio? Thanks. And I'll get back in queue after that.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, Jamie. So first of all, I would say we're really proud of our teams in this margin expansion that we have achieved. And as I mentioned earlier, we're not done. We feel like there's still a lot of runway, no pun intended in Win Strategy 3.0, a lot of opportunity to expand margins. We feel very strongly about our ability to grow differently with this portfolio and with the secular trends. And we'll have some more updates for you at the investor meeting here in a few weeks. But we're not pulling together a strategy right now that limits us on one or the other. We're just going to stay focused on margin expansion and growing that top line organically. On your acquisition question, for more aerospace or what the mix needs to be, it does need to be that longer cycle business, accretive to growth, accretive to margins, EPS, complementary technologies. All of those things have encompassed the last couple of acquisitions that we've done and is one of the reasons that I believe that we've been so successful with them. So that's the kind of business we're looking for. No magic number on a percentage of aerospace. We obviously like the aerospace business, but we like all of our technologies. We think there's real power in these technologies being together, and that's why we often talk about them being interconnected and most of our customers buying 4 or more of these at a time.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone. I guess a bit of a follow-up on some of the questions on the order rates and expected improvement in those in the short term. I think by historical standards, this has been a relatively shallow downturn in the industrial businesses for Parker as well. So I was just interested in your commentary on how you envision the shape of that recovery as well, just given that it's been a relatively shallow downturn, should that lead to maybe shallow or upturn or just kind of your expectations on what the recovery looks like when it comes.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. I think it's been -- to use your terms, we're shallow than the past, obviously, because we've changed the portfolio. We do have longer lead time business in the industrial part of our business today. We have higher aftermarket with CLARCOR. We have longer lead time business with Lord. And as a reminder, we have some aerospace business that sits in the industrial segment, where it belongs to some of those technologies in those groups. So I think the portfolio is the reason that it's not as deep as maybe as it has been in the past. Going forward, it's hard to say how that's going to move, but I do believe with the secular trends with some of these projects that are out there that we're going to like the way we grow differently. So no real indication for you today on if it's going to be slow and steady or some spikes, but just really wanted to share with everybody today that the start of the quarter looks better. And we might be seeing -- finally seeing an end to this lingering destocking.
Nathan Jones:
That would be good to say. A couple of questions on margins or any question on margins. Obviously, North America margin is up 120 basis points on down revenue. And international margins up 10 points on a 6% decline in revenue, a very strong margin performance. As we envision the return to growth in the end to this destocking and down cycle here, what kind of incremental margins should we be expecting as you see those industrial businesses return to growth?
Jennifer Parmentier:
I think you're going to see the normal incrementals that you've seen for us. We target 30%. We still think that, that's a good number. But you've seen us outperform that in the past. But I think going forward, that's a good number for us.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Maybe apologies, I just wanted to revisit the DI North America sort of top line color, just one more time, if that's okay. And it was really sort of relating to the point around it seems like destocking may be nearing an end in the order intake, but you did take down your fourth quarter organic sales assumption for North America. So is that really reflecting the fact that you've had a five-quarter orders decline behind you, but you've only had a two-quarter revenue decline behind you in that region. And so we should expect several quarters of revenue decline commensurate with the longevity of the orders decline. Is that the right way to think about it? Or there's something moving around with the backlog that means no, that's the wrong answer, we should have a much shorter revenue downturn than the orders downturn? Thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Julian, we're not expecting that to linger like that. What we really were just trying to signal was that things look better in the month of April than the way we finished to Q3. So no, there's no long lingering expectation for negative growth in North America.
Julian Mitchell:
Understood. Thank you. And then just my second question, trying to look at revenue another way, perhaps in industrial would be on the sort of technology platforms basis. So we saw around, I think, high single-digit declines in Motion and flow and process control in the quarter and sort of flattish in Filtration and Engineered Materials. I realize there's different moving parts geographically and so forth. But on the Filtration and Engineered Materials side, do you think that, that can sort of hold in there better than what happened in the other two industrial tech platforms or does it sort of follow them down and then back up just with a lag. Thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Julian, we do -- thanks for pointing that out. We do believe that those businesses could and should grow differently than the motion systems and flow and process platform, those businesses, motion systems, flow and process, those are the most levered to the distribution network, highest percentage of distribution sales. You've seen the destocking continue over the last couple of quarters in that space. We do think that, that's kind of nearing an end. Jenny already mentioned it, but filtration, heavy aftermarket, engineered materials, a little bit more longer cycle business, both in automotive end markets and then some of the transportation markets. So it kind of supports our strategy over the last many, many years to help the company perform differently no matter what's going on in the global industrial market that we could perform differently. And I think if you look back over the last 18 months, that's why the order downturn has been less shallow, that's why we've been able to post organic growth as a positive, even in industrial in light of some negative orders. So I think it's part of our shaping of the portfolio.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. I mean it's -- the portfolio is more resilient. And the teams across all of these businesses are doing a great job using the tools to expand margins. It's the reason why with 1.5% organic growth, we can expand margins 170 basis points. So it's -- I guess said before, we're really proud of the whole team.
Julian Mitchell:
That’s great. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
Next questions are from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you for taking the question. Good morning. I also sort of want to talk a little bit about industrial and orders there. I'm curious when you kind of destocking business and you look at the last four or five quarters, how you think about the OE versus distributor demand. It seems to me that in this down cycle, we had lower distributor demand occur maybe earlier than what's been going on with OEMs. The destocking process started earlier for distributors and we're just maybe now really starting to see the OEM production cuts. I'm wondering if that's sort of your experience as well. And if that somehow implies that while the down cycle is shallower, it could actually be longer than the traditional six quarters that you've seen in the past where things were more synchronized.
Jennifer Parmentier:
I would say that I do think we saw destocking start earlier for distribution. But as we've seen with many of our large OEs, they talked about higher dealer inventory, right? And so that's kind of a sense of their own destocking when the dealer inventories are high, they're not placing as big orders as they had in the past. But I would tell you, though, there's nobody canceling orders or pushing them, pushing them out to any great extent. So I don't feel like this is going to last longer. We're not seeing any signs that are telling us that right now. Just the early Q4 signs here that it looks different than it has.
Todd Leombruno:
Mig, that mix really still remains the same, that 50-50 mix that we talk about in the Industrial segment. So we think there's a nice balance there.
Mig Dobre:
Okay. And on capital deployment and maybe you'll comment on this at your upcoming Investor Day, but I'm sort of curious as you're evaluating M&A if there is -- there is something to be said about expanding portfolio -- the portfolio outside of the core areas that you've been targeting over the past couple of years. So more expansive strategy or if sort of the lanes that you've been active in are still the areas that you're looking to build. Thanks.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Right now, I would tell you that we're not looking to expand outside of the technologies we have. As I've commented a couple of times externally, we really like this set of technologies. They have a connectivity to them, and we think they're the right ones for our portfolio.
Mig Dobre:
Appreciate it.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, Mig
Operator:
Our next questions is from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hi. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I guess you can tell we're all like hyper focused on orders, right, Jenny?
Jennifer Parmentier:
[indiscernible]
Jeffrey Sprague:
Yes. And I may be even a little more hyper focused given the way I'm going to phrase my question, it rhythms a little bit with what a couple of other people brought up. But it is interesting when you look at North America, right? Sales growth has outpaced order growth, I think, for seven quarters until this quarter, and it looks like we've kind of recoupled. You mentioned some backlog, but should we be thinking really that sales and orders are going to be much more tightly correlated here as we try to glean where the upturn might be.
Jennifer Parmentier:
No, I don't think so, Jeff. I don't think we should be thinking that way. I think that, again, if I go back to the strength of the backlog and the change in the portfolio. It's different than it was in the past. It's a different company than it was 10 years ago, five years ago, right? And we really believe that once this turns, we're going to grow differently because of that.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Okay.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Jeff, I would add, obviously, every one of these things we go through is a little bit different. We did come off two years of double-digit organic growth, right? So there was a significant amount of demand that we had to deliver through those industrial businesses. I think if you've seen that inventory levels moderate throughout the year, we've kind of reduced that thing. But as Jenny said, the backlog really pretty strong. It's at near all-time levels. We continue to pressure test that to make sure that it's real and legitimate. I think it's just part of having a longer cycle mix within that portfolio.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Great. And if you have the numbers handy, can you just tick through the kind of the four aero buckets we got here, commercial aftermarket up 25, but just OE and then military aftermarket and OE, what those numbers were in the quarter?
Jennifer Parmentier:
For Q3, Jeff, you're asking?
Jeffrey Sprague:
Yes, for Q3.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Commercial OEM was up 18%, and that was mainly based on strong narrow wide-body growth. MRO up 26%. And same thing. Their traffic recovery, things we've talked about, military OEM 7% and MRO 14%.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thanks a lot. I’ll leave it there.
Todd Leombruno:
Jeff, I would just remind everyone, that's all organic at this point, too.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Thank you, Todd, all organic.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
Joe O'Dea:
Hi. Good morning. Sorry to bore you, but I'll stick with the common theme. And just wanted to get a little color around, I mean, certainly encouraging commentary on kind of North America through cycle and demand. I guess as it relates to what's implied for fourth quarter, I mean, it looks like a larger kind of sequential revenue decline from 3Q to 4Q, than what we've seen over the last number of years outside of COVID. And so just kind of sequentially, what you're anticipating there? The orders seemed like they were stable from 3Q to 4Q. I think you said -- from 2Q to 3Q, I think you said dollars up. And so just what's kind of driving maybe a little bit softer sequential trend there because it sounds like otherwise, things are holding and even improving.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. So as I mentioned earlier, the guide is based off of Q3 order rates, and they -- you are right, they did stay at negative four, but if you look at the sales dollars, Q4 dollars are in line with Q3. So that's why we're signaling that minus 4 versus the approximately minus 1 that we had previously.
Joe O'Dea:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful and then just a question in terms of kind of pricing sensitivity and just to, kind of understand customer experience. I mean when a customer walks into a distributor. Are they typically walking in knowing exactly what they want to buy and the Parker product? Or are they kind of looking at prices and shopping between Parker and competitors? Just trying to understand how much price shopping goes on versus how much is -- is kind of predetermined and brand loyal.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. First of all, I think the Parker brand is very strong and people are looking for Parker products when they walk into a Parker distributor. And they need a part and they need it now, right? So it's not what I would characterize as price shopping, it's availability. And then having that person standing behind the counter who knows how to apply that part, how to help them get the right part if they don't know exactly what they need or they don't know exactly what replacement is an order. So they're walking in to get help and they're walking in to get a product. And that really is what is so special about the partnership that we have with our distributors. They're just an extension of our engineering team, and they provide a great value and service to many customers.
Joe O'Dea:
That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Joe Giordano with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.
Joe Giordano:
Hey guys. Thanks for taking my questions.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Joe.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Hi Joe.
Joe Giordano:
Hey. On the aerospace side, so given all that's happening, I know you're in your aerospace portfolio is very broad. But if we just kind of narrow into like OEM commercial, like given what's going on with Boeing. And the reduction in rates there, like it doesn't sound like they've told any of their suppliers anywhere to slow down what they're shipping to them given supply chains. But like is there -- at what point do you see risk to that dynamic where build rates are down, but everyone is still shipping the same and inventories must be building over there?
Jennifer Parmentier:
No. We stay in close contact with all the airframe manufacturers and our aerospace team talks to the Boeing team on a regular basis. So -- what we're seeing is consistent with what they've talked about most recently, production in the 30s. They have signaled that the rate increase isn't going to happen right now. But we are committed to make sure that we are at pace with them and that we continue to supply product them to help them reach their goals. So we're not seeing any signs of that's slowing down right now.
Todd Leombruno:
Joe, too, we talked about it, but if you think about that mix, it's nearly 50-50 aftermarket versus OEM in the aerospace business. So that's helpful as well.
Joe Giordano:
Yes, for sure. Just on price, you mentioned you're back to like normalized situation here. I guess inflation is kind of tough to figure, you have some things going up like copper, something is going down. If we get into a situation where inflation is more consistently rising than falling again, how do you think about your customers either willingness or ability to accept price to the same extent that they did last cycle?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, I think we've talked about how our pricing team, our pricing muscle is strong. And one of the things that I think we even got stronger during these last couple of years is really looking at the total cost of inflation. So it's not just material, right? It's all those things that just hit extraordinary levels all at once. And while those aren't easy conversations, you know their conversations that we had and if we would need to have them again, we would. They're based on facts, they're based on data. And we would cross that bridge when we come to it. But as I mentioned earlier, we're back in more of a normal pricing environment, but I believe it's sticky because inflation is still out there.
Joe Giordano:
Thank you guys.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you.
Operator:
Our next question is from the line of Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Brett Linzey:
Hi. Good morning all.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning, Brett.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning.
Brett Linzey:
Yes. First question is on business realignment charges. So it looks like the 2024 expectation dropped to $57 million from $70 million, anything to glean there? Is it just timing on projects? Or is there some costs to achieve perhaps moving lower, any thoughts there?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. It's just a minor tweak. I would call it more timing than anything, maybe getting some of those done at a little bit of a lower cost as well. So we just kind of updated it based on the best that we had from the team.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. Great. And then just on pricing, I know you don't disclose actual price, but was it positive in both those industrial segments. And I'm just curious on any competitive behavior on price and some of the more challenged regions like Europe or Asia?
Jennifer Parmentier:
No, you're right. We don't comment on the exact price. And as I mentioned earlier, we went out early and often. So we've protected our margin to make sure that it maintains neutral going through everything that's gone on in the last couple of years, and that's where we stand today with price.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. I mean if you're asking about rolling price back, we've not done that, right? Jenny mentioned that we're still in an inflationary environment and a lot of those costs that went up, have not gone back down. So we feel very much tied to the price. We don't do it randomly. We do it when we need to and that's kind of where our process has been.
Brett Linzey:
Okay. Great. Congrats on a performance.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks Brett.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks Brett.
Todd Leombruno:
Hi Rob. I think we've got time for one more question here if we've got somebody.
Operator:
Sure. Sure. Our next question will be from line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Todd Leombruno:
Nigel, are you there?
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Yes. I am here. Can you hear me?
Todd Leombruno:
Good to hear you.
Nigel Coe:
Yes. Yes. Good. Thanks for squeezing me in. Okay. So coming back to April, let's look at it again. Maybe could you just hone in the North America, where you're seeing the improving trends. And the spirit of the question is that it feels like in your off-highway and even in the on-highway customers, things aren't necessarily getting better. So I'd be curious on which pockets of customer groups are you seeing that improvement? And then if we do move to Europe, are we seeing a similar degree of improvement over there? Or do we still see pretty negative trends?
Jennifer Parmentier:
No, I would say, Nigel, at this point, just commenting on how I see it better in April. I don't really want to go into any detail in markets or specifics. But I would say that where we're seeing it is mainly North America, it's not to say that there's nothing positive in Europe or Asia, but the comments about April are mainly North America, where we're seeing quite -- might be that this destocking is coming to an end and that we'll see a turn here.
Nigel Coe:
Yes, it's got to come down at some point, I suppose. And then switching over to margin and SG&A productivity is really impressive. I think underlying SG&A came in at 13.5% this quarter. So I think for the full year, we're sort of in that 14% zone. Is that the right range going forward? Do you think you can maintain sort of 15% SG&A to sales? That's the question, really. Is there anything sort of like discretionary you're controlling at this point? Or is this a good range going forward?
Todd Leombruno:
Nigel thanks for recognizing that. We have always proud of ourselves on being frugal when it comes to SG&A expenses. Quite honestly, we think we can do better. I wouldn't say that there's anything that we've been holding off on, right? I mean the overall level of the business remains extremely high, right? The sales levels are at record levels. But we hold our team to constantly assessing and making sure, we're making the best investments in the business. So we think we can do better when it comes to SG&A, there's no doubt.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Okay. Thanks.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks so much. I think that's all we have time for. So I want to thank everyone for joining us today. As usual, Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available, if anyone needs any follow-ups. As always, we appreciate your time, your attention and your interest. So this concludes our FY 2024 Q3 earnings release webcast, and I wish everyone a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Today's conference and webcast has concluded. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and log off your computers. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.
Operator:
Greetings, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fiscal 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Diego. Welcome to Parker's Fiscal Year 2024 First Quarter Earnings Release Webcast. As Diego said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer, speaking. Thank you to everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Jenny Parmentier, our Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. Our comments today will be addressing forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 of this presentation provide specific details to our disclosures in respect to these areas. Actual results could vary from our projections based on the items listed here. Our press release, this presentation and reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures were released this morning and are available under the Investors section at parker.com. And they will remain available there for 1 year. Today, Jenny is going to start with some highlights of our outstanding first quarter. She will also reiterate how our portfolio transformation, along with strong aerospace secular trends, position Parker for a promising future. I will then provide some financial details on the quarter and detail our increase to our fiscal year '24 guidance. Jenny is going to wrap up. And then Jenny, Lee and I will take as many questions as we could fit in the hour. And with that, I would ask you to move to Slide 3. And Jenny, I'll hand it over to you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Q1 was a standout quarter, driven by a strong portfolio and our teams executing The Win Strategy. Starting with safety, a 16% reduction in recordable incidents. Safety has been and will remain our top priority. Record sales of $4.8 billion in the quarter, a 15% increase over prior year with organic growth of 2.3%. Record adjusted segment operating margin of 24.9%, a 220 basis point increase over prior year with all segments coming in above 24% and 26% adjusted EPS growth along with 11.4% free cash flow margin. The combination of Parker and Meggitt delivered an outstanding quarter for aerospace and a strong start to the year. As a result of this performance, we are increasing our FY '24 guidance, and Todd will go over this later in the slide deck. Next slide, please. Many of you have seen this slide before. The transformation of our portfolio over the last 8 years has doubled the size of aerospace, filtration and engineered materials. As a result of this, from FY '15 to FY '24 guidance, you can see the obvious shift to a longer cycle and secular revenue mix. We have high confidence that by fiscal year '27, we'll have approximately 85% of the company in long cycle end markets and industrial aftermarket. Next slide, please. The mix shift that I just spoke of is evident in our strong backlog. For total Parker, backlog remains resilient. Coverage has doubled from 27% in fiscal year '16 to 54% today, and this has been consistent for the last several quarters. Aerospace backlog is extremely robust. This coverage will support high single-digit growth well into the future. Industrial backlog coverage continues to be 2x what it was in the past, from mid-teens to low 30s. We now have longer-term visibility from the portfolio changing acquisitions with secular and longer-cycle exposure. Next slide, please. We have transformed the portfolio, and we have strong backlog. Let me remind you of the future sales growth drivers. The Win Strategy is our business system that delivers growth and financial performance. It is a proven strategy, and every tool in this system expands margins. Macro CapEx reinvestment is addressing the last decade of underinvestment as well as investments to strengthen and develop the supply chain. This will result in increased equipment spend and higher levels of automation. Under innovation, our new product blueprinting tools and Simple by Design principles have increased our product vitality index, that is the percent of sales from new products, enabling faster growth and support of the secular trends. And as mentioned on the previous slide, the acquisitions we have made are great companies with higher growth rates, aftermarket and accretive margins. We continue to benefit from the growth related to the secular trends. As previously stated, we expect multiple years of solid growth in aerospace, driven by both commercial and defense. And no matter what the energy source is, from diesel to electric to hybrid, the primary Parker content that we have today increases 1.5 to 2x with electrification. With 2/3 of our portfolio supporting clean technologies, we are well positioned today, even better for tomorrow, and we are truly energy-agnostic. Again, all of this is giving us high confidence to grow differently than we have in the past and achieve our 4% to 6% organic growth over the cycle. Next slide, please. Now 30% of our business, aerospace is a growth differentiator for Parker. And Parker and Meggitt are a powerful combination. This team has embraced The Win Strategy and is exceeding our expectations. We couldn't be happier with this acquisition. Next slide, please. From nose to tail, we have a comprehensive portfolio of products and services. Parker has a broad product offering for both airframe and engine applications. Meggitt brought new product and system areas, including braking, fire detection and suppression, thermal management, avionics and sensors and electric power. This breadth of technologies is enabling a more strategic relationship and discussions with our customers, both OEM and aftermarket. Next slide, please. This slide highlights the favorable aerospace secular trend we are experiencing now and will into the future. Taking a look at the sales mix at the top of the page, we are now 45% aftermarket, an 800 basis point increase with the acquisition of Meggitt. And we have a balanced portfolio with strong growth drivers in each of these 4 areas. At the bottom of the page are the macro growth drivers. On the commercial side, we are expecting double-digit growth in aircraft deliveries and air traffic. On the military side, the Department of Defense budget increases. And our military aftermarket partnerships will drive mid- and long-term growth, a very promising future for aerospace. I'll now turn it over to Todd to go through the summary of our Q1 results.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jenny. I'm going to begin here on Slide 11 and just touch on some of the financial results. Jenny mentioned this, our FY '24 is off to a very strong start, really speaks to the alignment across our global team. We broke several records this quarter. We set records for sales and on an adjusted basis, segment operating margin, EBITDA margin, net income and earnings per share. If you look at the sales growth, it's up 15% versus prior year, obviously, strongly impacted by the net of acquisitions and divestitures. You look at that impact, that was a little over 11% positive to our growth. Organic growth remained positive at 2.3%, and currency was actually a slight favorable 1% impact in the quarter. When you look at adjusted segment operating margin, it was 24.9%. That is an increase of 220 basis points versus prior year. And if you look at adjusted EBITDA margin, that was 24.8%, an increase of 150 basis points versus prior year. If you look at adjusted net income, we generated $776 million in net income. And adjusted EPS was a record at $5.96. If you look at both of those items, it's a 26% improvement versus prior year. And we can't say this enough, it's our portfolio transformation and really consistent execution across the global team, just great work delivering a standout quarter here. And I'm really pleased to say that these results are consistent across all of our businesses. If you can move to Slide 12, this just kind of details the 26% increase in earnings per share, that's $1.22 of improvement. What I really like about this chart, the main driver continues to be standout operating performance. We increased segment operating margin dollars by nearly $250 million. That was $1.46 of our EPS growth. And while all segments contributed to growth, really the strength in our aerospace business was a major driver this quarter. If you look at income tax, that was $0.17 favorable this year. Really, that is solely based off of a few discrete items that settled in the quarter. We did have some headwinds on the other expense line of $0.27 and also the interest expense line of $0.10. But I will tell you, both of those items are simply related to timing with last year's funding of the Meggitt transaction. We do not expect those to repeat going forward. And finally, corporate G&A and share count were just slightly [indiscernible] at $0.02 each, and that is -- really that is in line with what we guided to. So nothing of concern there. So that's the walk to the record $5.96 in EPS, and it really is just driven off a broad-based offering improvements. Obviously, the Meggitt results are in there. The synergies are in there. And as you can see, strong record margins across all of the businesses, just great job by the team. On Slide 13, we'll just talk a little bit about segment performance. Every segment delivered adjusted operating margins over 24%. That's the first time in the history of the company that, that has happened. And it was really, again, just driven by strong performance, good volumes. Obviously, Meggitt synergies helped quite a bit, and really just the global team is very aligned. If you look at incrementals, we did 40% incrementals versus prior year, really proud of that number. And orders are positive at plus 2 versus prior year. And backlog coverage, as Jenny mentioned, really remains elevated. And again, aerospace activity remains especially robust on the order line. So just great work there. And then lastly, I would just say as we celebrate that 1-year anniversary with Meggitt, we're really very pleased that those businesses continue to outperform. It's been a great addition to the company. If you look at North America specifically, sales volume is up 4.5%. We generated $2.2 billion of sales. Organic growth was slightly positive, just 0.5% there. And that was impacted by some destocking and channel rebalancing that we've kind of mentioned throughout the quarter. If you look at adjusted operating margins, we did increase operating margins 150 basis points to 24.9%. And that was really just great execution and obviously cost controls. So great work there. And if you look at orders in North America, they did improve versus last quarter. They are minus 4. They did improve from minus 8. And backlog coverage in North America obviously remains strong as well. So great work to our North America team. In the international businesses, sales were $1.4 billion. That is an increase of about 2.5% versus prior year. Organic growth in the segment was about negative 2. So that was down. Organic growth in EMEA was positive 2, right? So that was a plus. Latin America, also very positive at plus 8. The impact of the segment was really driven by Asia Pacific, and that was about a negative 8 organic growth. And that's really just a result of mostly China softness that I think is well documented and also some tough comps that we had in the prior year. However, if you look at operating margins, even with that negative 2 organic growth, we expanded operating margins by 100 basis points. And the segment finished at 24.1%. So our team members there are focused on productivity, cost controls. The team really expanded margins in a very, very tough environment. So just great, resilient performance across the segment there, very nice work. Order rates do continue to be choppy. They did decline to minus 8. Really, that is conditions driven really out of Europe and China. The standout for the quarter is our aerospace business, right? Just a stellar quarter from aerospace. Sales were $1.2 billion. That was an increase of 65% versus prior year. Organic growth, very robust at about 16%. And that was really broad-based, double-digit growth in all of the aerospace market platforms. So business is very strong there. Operating margins, unbelievable, a new record, increasing 610 basis points to 26%. Really, that was driven by healthy margins, rate increases at the airlines, strong aftermarket growth, really all those things contributing to great margin performance. I will note, we did benefit from a few small favorable onetime contractual settlements in the quarter. And we do not expect those to repeat throughout the rest of our fiscal year. Aerospace orders, I already mentioned this, but plus 24 are very robust. Great future for the aerospace business. If you move to Slide 14, just a quick look at cash flow. Our cash flow from operations increased 42% versus prior year. Cash flow from operations was $650 million. That's 13.4% of sales. Our free cash flow increased even more, 48% increase versus prior year, finished at $552 million for the quarter. That's 11.4% of sales, and free cash flow was 85%. For the full year, we are committed to our strong cash flow generation profile. We are forecasting mid-teens cash flow from operations. And of course, we will extend our record free cash flow conversion of over 100% [indiscernible]. So great start to the year on cash flow. Moving to Slide 15. I just want to touch real quick on our leverage reduction. I think everybody knows we are focused on our leverage reduction commitment. We reduced debt in the quarter by $370 million. And just since the Meggitt close, we've reduced that by over $1.8 billion and improved our leverage by 1.2 turns. Both of those numbers are ahead of what we originally scheduled. If you look at gross debt to EBITDA, it's now 2.6 and net debt to adjusted EBITDA is now 2.5. And of course, we are still committed to forecast over 10 -- over $2 billion of debt paydown in FY '24. So great work there that [indiscernible]. Looking forward on Slide 16, just some details on guidance. Basically, we are reaffirming our full year organic growth midpoint. We did incorporate September 30 currency rates. And we are increasing our margin and EPS expectations for the year. Reported sales growth for the year is now forecasted to be in the range of 2.5% to 5.5% or roughly 4% at the midpoint. That split will be just as it always is, 49% in the first half, 51% in the second half. We are raising our aerospace organic growth guidance 200 basis points from 8% in our prior guide, now 10%. So that's great to see that business performing so well. Full year organic growth is tweaked just a little bit. The company will remain at 1.5%. Currency is a small offset, which is now expected to be just a slight headwind to our prior guide. Margins, if you look at margins, we're raising our margin expectation to 23.6. At the midpoint, there's a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. And if you look at what we're forecasting on a year-over-year change, we're increasing that expectation to 70 basis points of margin expansion versus prior year. It was 30 basis points in our prior guide. Incremental margins really just based off of the strong Q1 performance, we expect those to be around 40% for the full year. And if you look at the other items, corporate G&A, interest and other are relatively unchanged to what we guided to last quarter. Tax rate for Q2 through Q4 we expect to be 23.5. So if you look at the full year, that will equate to about 23% on the tax line. And EPS on an as-reported basis is now $19.13 at the midpoint, and adjusted EPS is $23. And the range on both of those items is $0.40 plus or minus. Split remains the same, 48% first half, 52% second half. And specifically for Q2, adjusted EPS is now expected to be $5.17 at the midpoint. And as usual, if needed, we have more guidance specifics that are included in the appendix, and that's all I had. Jenny, I'll turn it back to you, Slide 17.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. And now I would like to recognize our colleague and friend, Lee Banks, during his last quarter earnings call. Lee will be retiring as Vice Chairman and President effective December 31, 2023. He joined Parker in 1991, has been an officer of the company since 2006 and a director since 2015. During Lee's tenure, sales grew at a 7% CAGR to nearly $20 billion. EPS grew from $0.36 per share in fiscal year '91 to $21.55 adjusted per share in fiscal year '23. Since 2015, total shareholder return was 292% versus S&P 500 industrial sector of 80%. As if all of this isn't enough, I'd like to repeat a few of my comments from last week's shareholder meeting when we announced Lee's retirement. It's obviously not possible to overstate the tremendous positive impact Lee has had on our company, our businesses and our team members around the world. His legacy and track record is nothing short of extraordinary. From leading our largest businesses to growing our global distribution network to championing and driving operational excellence to co-creating the recent versions of The Win Strategy and probably most importantly and what he's proud of is to recruiting, leading and developing many of our most talented leaders and beyond, Lee's set the bar for us for what good looks like and was a key leader in the transformation of Parker's performance and portfolio. Lee, on behalf of all of us, we can't thank you enough. We will miss you. And we wish you and your family nothing but great health and happiness in your retirement.
Lee Banks:
Thank you, Jenny. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Leombruno:
Lee, we know you're going to crush retirement just like you crushed [indiscernible].
Lee Banks:
I've got a plan.
Jennifer Parmentier:
All right. Next slide, please. A few key messages to close this out before Q&A. Q1 was a great start to fiscal year '24. Our focus on safety and engagement will continue to drive positive results in our business. We have a proven track record, and we're going to continue to accelerate our performance with The Win Strategy 3.0. It's been a successful first year with Meggitt. And the transformation of the portfolio is delivering a longer cycle and more resilient revenue mix, allowing us to achieve our FY '27 goals and continue to be great generators and deployers of cash. We have a very promising future ahead of us. Back to you, Todd.
Todd Leombruno:
Diego, we're going to open the call for Q&A. So we'll take whoever's first in the queue. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And our first question, we have Andrew Obin with Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Lee, congratulations. We'll definitely miss you. But these EPS numbers are staggering when you started where you are right now. Yes, just a question in terms of guidance. If I take the midpoint of your EPS guidance and you gave us the first half, second half split, and then just subtract what you've printed in the first quarter, there seems to be a sort of sequential decline in EPS that would be quite a bit more than what the history would suggest. And I'm just trying to understand, is that -- given that you do have Meggitt now, is that just a different seasonal pattern that Parker is going to have? Or are there onetime items in the second quarter versus the first quarter that's sort of this -- that the implied numbers are driving?
Todd Leombruno:
Andrew, I'll take a stab at that and then if Jenny or Lee's got some color, I'll let them add. Q2 for us has obviously got some seasonality in it. It is our lowest volume quarter of the year. But really, I would call out just a stellar performance in Q1. Every number that we talked about was a record. It's kind of hard to keep that going into your lowest volume quarter. You're right, we do anniversary Meggitt. So that from a year-over-year standpoint, it's now in the base or will be in the base for Q2. So that is it. But there's no other onetime items that are abnormal that we would expect to see in Q2. It's really just volume and seasonality around the business.
Andrew Obin:
No, that's a good answer. I'll take it. And the other question, just North American orders. Could you just provide a little bit more visibility by key verticals? I think they're holding in a bit better than I would have expected. What's coming in better than expected, what's weaker and maybe a lot of focus on orders this quarter. Maybe just talk a little bit about the cadence of orders throughout the quarter.
Lee Banks:
Andrew, it's Lee. I'll take this. So maybe I'll just take a step back. I think all the reports that I've read, I think the narrative is right. If you look at it globally, and I'll get into North America here in a second, but underlying demand in North America is still fairly positive. There is definitely some inventory balancing taking place, not only through the distribution channel, but I would also argue at OEM levels, too, with their customers, dealership, dealers, et cetera. And I think that's going to continue to play out through the second half of this -- into calendar 2024. But there's a lot of -- I mean, you just look at all the infrastructure spending taking place, there's been a lot of money flooded in the economy in North America. And I would still say it's good. When you look at the rest of the world, really, the story is China. China, not only tough comps, but it just hasn't rebounded like I thought it would have rebounded maybe 3 or 4 quarters ago. And it's got -- it's probably got a bigger impact on what's happening in Europe right now, especially in Germany would be a key market. So that's soft. If I look at the rest of Asia, the rest of Asia, Southeast Asia, India are still strong. But if you look at Japan and Korea, they're pretty soft, too, I think, tied to China. When I think about the North American markets, and I'll lump aerospace in there, I mean, you can't find any weakness. What's going on in aerospace, commercial, military, OEM, MRO, all really strong. And I don't see that stopping for some time. If you look at those 3 indicators that Jenny talked about, you're hard-pressed to find a time in history where you've had all those 3 indicators, available seat kilometers, DoD spend and then aircraft coming into service where they've all lined up that well. Land-based oil and gas in North America is still really strong. There's less rig count, but there's a lot of MRO activity taking place that's keeping people busy. And again, our distribution, if you look at all the end markets, yes, they [indiscernible] on inventory, but things are not falling off a cliff. It's still real good. So the short way telling you, I feel pretty positive about North America end markets. We just got a little bit of a balancing taking place right now.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Congrats on a great start to the year. And then, Lee, trips to Cleveland won't be as fun. We'll miss you. [indiscernible] retirement.
Lee Banks:
Great.
Joseph Ritchie:
So maybe following up on Andrew's question, if you had to think -- if you had to look across your industrial end markets today, what portion of those end market do you think are continuing to decelerate? And then as you kind of think about the destocking commentary, any color on like how long you think certain end markets will continue to destock for you guys?
Lee Banks:
I'll take a stab at this, and maybe I'll let Jenny and Todd pile on. But I think in North America, you've got things like automotive are somewhat flat; heavy-duty trucks, flat; agriculture is flat. Construction in North America is really kind of flat for the most part. Again, I think there's some dealer inventory that people are working through. But it's still good overall demand there. I think things that were tied to COVID production, life sciences, there's still some big overhang from the ramp-up we had during that period of time. So that's just tough comps, and the demand is down a little bit. Yes, I'll leave it -- material handling is still really strong.
Joseph Ritchie:
Got it. Go ahead, Jenny.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Just to echo Lee's comments to Andrew's question and yours, I think with this backlog as strong as it is, although that we see this destocking continuing, we see a bit of supply chain normalizing, and that's helping things. And as that heals, we'll start to see, I think, a bit of a better environment. But just echo all Lee's comments.
Lee Banks:
One other thing I meant to say when I was talking, Joe, is I think what everybody forgets about, everybody is focused on aerospace and Meggitt, which have been huge positives. But don't forget about that we bought LORD and we bought CLARCOR. And we bought those to kind of -- we knew they would not be as cyclical as the core legacy Parker business. And I think you're seeing that in the numbers. It's panning out that way to be true.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then look, big focus this quarter on mega projects, timing of orders. Just, Jenny, maybe just talk a little bit about how you see things kind of playing out with all the investment that's happening in the U.S. Do you think Parker is well positioned to see an inflection in orders when you start to see a lot more equipment and the stuff that's going inside of factory come through?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Absolutely. I mean, when you think about, as I mentioned earlier, the underinvestment that's happened in the last decade and what will happen a decade, I mean, we are in a great position to participate. We've said a couple of times, it's still early days. But in speaking with some of our channel partners, where there's some factories going in for semicon and some of these other big projects, they're starting to participate in that. We've said we're there when the land is prepped, when the walls go up and when the equipment goes inside the factory. And some of our distributors have been able to talk to us about how they're already enjoying that business. So we're in a really good position with those as well as the secular trends that I mentioned earlier.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird.
Mircea Dobre:
Congratulations, Lee, and all the best to you going forward. My question, going back to the industrial backlog discussion, I'm sort of curious as to how you think about this elevated level of backlog. Is this sort of a function of a change in the way your customers are ordering? Or is this more of a function of really what we've been going through over the past couple of years with supply chains and so on and so forth and safety stock being built up?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Mig, this is Jenny. I think it's all the things you mentioned. But as Lee just stated, with the acquisitions that we've made, we're getting longer cycle business here. So we see a longer demand sense, a longer demand horizon than we've seen in the past. So the transformation of the portfolio is definitely impacting the backlog. And I do think that what we've been through the last couple of years, of course, you're going to see some people just kind of sharpening their pencils on how they order and making sure that they have the right lead times out there. So I think that's part of it. But more of it is really about the shift of our portfolio. I've said many times, we know from the past that backlog isn't bulletproof. But we've seen this now for the last several quarters in a declining order environment. In North America, orders have been negative for quarters, but this backlog has remained resilient. And we believe that while it might go down a little bit, our portfolio is going to drive us to have this kind of backlog going forward.
Mircea Dobre:
Right. Understood. My follow-up is on aero. Can you be a little more specific on that contractual settlement and the benefit in the quarter? And then in terms of the guidance raise, talk a little bit maybe about that as well, the organic as well as the market. I mean, is this a function of aftermarket really driving that guidance raise? Or is there something else in there?
Todd Leombruno:
Mig, this is Todd. On the guidance raise, you obviously can see the orders. Activity across all of those platforms has been extremely strong. Aftermarket was a big standout in the quarter. That was a big driver of the growth, and it was a big driver of the margin performance. So we just feel a little bit more confident with another quarter in there that we feel that we're able to raise that. So we moved to 200 basis points from 8 to 10 for the full year, and we feel pretty confident about that. I don't want to make a big deal about those things. I said they were small and minor, those onetime items. I just wanted to call it out so that it would make a little bit more sense if you look at our margin guide going forward for the rest of the year. So it's little of that.
Jennifer Parmentier:
And just a little more color on aerospace. Like Todd said, very strong aftermarket, commercial and military. And if we look forward in this guidance, we've said it a couple of times already, but just to look at each 4 of these -- each of these areas, commercial OEM is in the mid-teens. And those narrow-body rate increases, they've happened, and we see that they're going to continue to do so. Commercial MRO is in the mid-teens. The narrow-body aircraft are almost at pre-pandemic levels. There's a lot of engine repair and component restocking going on. So very positive there. And then military OEM, mid-single-digit as demand for legacy programs continue. And then military MRO, mid- to high single digit. Near term, we have tailwind with some of our Department of Defense repair depots. We continue to really enjoy public-private partnerships. They're growing. And there's fleet [indiscernible] and service extension. So just all in all, just a great environment across all 4 of these areas.
Operator:
And our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
Obviously, congratulations, Lee. Best of luck. When it comes to the North American orders, just given 2 quarters ago, right, down 8, now some second derivative improvement we just saw. Given the comps are starting to ease, I'm just curious if you'd be willing to say, do you think we've seen the bottom in the year-over-year orders in North America? And then I have a question about the organic sales cadence. Can you just update us on how we get from here to the full year 1.5? And I'm particularly interested also what do you have for organic in Europe in the guide.
Jennifer Parmentier:
David, this is Jenny. I don't think any of us really have that good of a crystal ball. But I will restate that the backlog is strong. And as you said, orders were at negative 8, and they went to negative 4. So we feel good about that. There's some uncertainty out there. And all in all, if you look at North America, we have the first half slightly lower at about 1%, but full year, mostly unchanged, it's slightly positive. So I can't give you an exact answer on that, but we feel good about where we're at right now.
David Raso:
Can you help with the organic cadence a little bit though maybe for the whole company just to get a sense of the 1.5, if you can take us through that a little bit detail? And again, maybe a little color on Europe, in particular, what's in the guide. I thought the first quarter was a little stronger than expected. So just trying to get a sense.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, David, I agree with you. Europe did outperform in the first quarter. I think we called that derivative plus 2. The total company did plus 2. Obviously, aerospace was fantastic at 16. If you look at the cadence, it's really not that much different than what we guided to initially, is not second half-weighted. We expect comps to kind of moderate a little bit. But if you look at Europe specifically, they did 2 in Q1. We're expecting about 1 in Q2, and then it goes -- turns a little bit negative just again based on comps in the second half. I would say for the second half, it's probably about minus 3.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Also, congrats, Lee. Great run. It's been nothing but a pleasure indeed, but good luck in the future. I have a tough time picturing you retired, but...
Todd Leombruno:
Scott. You've got a plan. He's got a plan.
Scott Davis:
Yes. I'm guessing we'll see you around on Boards and such even more so. But anyways, a lot of the questions about inventories and stuff have been asked. So I just wanted to go back to a big picture one on Slide 4. Jenny, you kind of showed the -- where you want to be in '27. Can you get there with -- I mean, is the plan kind of further tweaking around with the portfolio and a longer cycle M&A? Or do you get there just on the growth rates, the outsized growth rates and aero and some of your longer-cycle businesses?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes, it's the latter. We -- these illustrations are with the portfolio that we have today and the tailwind that we see not just from aerospace but from the macro CapEx investment and the secular trends.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Fair enough. And then the -- just looking through my notes here, the distribution levels and like Parker stores, you guys have great visibility. But are they -- is there a new normal above COVID levels? I know this has been asked in a different way, and I'm trying to really narrow down whether in this new world, everybody holds a little bit more inventory or whether supply chains are so healed up and people are so comfortable that they're back down to kind of what was more of the long-term averages pre-COVID. And obviously, the cost of carrying inventory has risen, too, with higher rates. We haven't had that in quite some time. So any comments there and how that plays into it would be interesting, too.
Lee Banks:
Yes, Scott, it's Lee. I would think it's the latter. The cost of carrying inventory is way up from what it's been. I think the insanity of supply chains has started to quiet down. So I don't expect there to be a huge difference as we go forward about how some of those core industrial products are inventory versus what they were before pre-COVID.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Lee, congrats, and thanks for all the help over the years. Could we just maybe kind of come back to the margins, which really stood out here. I think it's probably pretty clear from just other companies we follow that price/cost spreads were pretty favorable this quarter. I know you don't want to talk about price in isolation, but can you give us some sense of kind of where you're tracking on a price/cost basis, how that might differ from what you saw in fiscal '23 and how it's progressing through the year embedded in your guide?
Jennifer Parmentier:
So if you recall, we went out early and often with price. And we are now back to more of a what we would call a normal pricing environment where we are going out in July and January. So we don't disclose the specifics, obviously, but price/cost management is a core element of The Win Strategy. And what we did do is we expanded from just material inflation to total cost of inflation. So we feel good about what we have covered, and we're back to more of a normal environment.
Jeffrey Sprague:
But you are getting some cost relief. Is that fair or not so much? You've got some metals relief, but other inflation, maybe just a little perspective on the cost side of the equation.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Where we have some of those commodities index, which is very few, there's adjustments. And where we have agreements with customers, there's adjustments, but that's already built in.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then just back to Meggitt and aero. When I saw the margins this morning, I thought okay, you're going to be talking up the synergies or you've accelerated them into 2024. Really no comment about that. So I'm sure you're capturing synergies, but it sounds like the margins are little one-offs that Todd mentioned but mostly aftermarket mix. But maybe just a little bit of color on the synergy pace, and is there scope for that to go up? And is any of that actually embedded in these results here in the quarter?
Jennifer Parmentier:
So if you recall, in fiscal year '23, we increased the synergies from $60 million to $75 million. And then we committed to another $75 million in fiscal year '24. So as Todd mentioned, the synergies are in there. The team is doing a great job. We're committed to the $300 million, and we're just confident we're going to get there. A lot of -- as Todd mentioned, too, strong aftermarket, right? That is just a very favorable mix, really helped boost the margin in the quarter.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Great. Yes. Felt like you're getting after that additional 75 faster, but I'll leave it there.
Todd Leombruno:
No, Jeff, it really is a combination of -- obviously, the volumes have helped on the efficiency side, but Jenny has mentioned supply chain has eased. I think that has taken a lot of noise out of a lot of our operations. It's not totally gone yet, but if you look back to a year or 1.5 years ago, it is a lot more efficiencies that we're seeing across all businesses.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
I wish Lee all the best. Just wanted to circle back to my first question on the international sort of demand picture. So I guess, if you look at the last 6 quarters, you've had orders down in 5 of those 6. When you think about inventory levels, and it's an extremely disparate set of countries and markets, that down 8 on orders you saw in the most [indiscernible] quarter and when you think about the duration of these orders downturn, I just wondered any perspectives on when you think we start to sort of pull out of that order slump. And if you think that down 8 marks the kind of low point of what we should see this down cycle in international orders.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, Julian, orders, like you said, it's been choppy for a while. In international, Q1 organic growth was in line with our prior forecast at segment level. As Lee mentioned, in Europe, destocking continues, softness in some broad-based end markets. Low recovery in China is impacting that region. And there's Eurozone macroeconomic indicators that remain in contraction territory. So I would say, hard to tell there. But two, again, China, if you look at Asia Pacific, China recovery remains slow. There's continued softness in construction in semicon and automotive. As we mentioned earlier, there is a bit of a tough comp for last year Q1 because they were rebounding from the Q4 shutdown. So in the guide, no big change for the first half, and the full year is largely in line with previous guidance, so at about negative 3%. This is the best view we have today.
Julian Mitchell:
And then on the North America business, I think a lot of investors still get concerned when they see some of those big sort of mobile OEM customers talk about backlog down, and what does that mean for their inventories for suppliers such as yourselves and others. So maybe just remind us of the scale of that kind mobile piece within North America. And how do you gauge or what's your assessment of that inventory level at some of those big machine or mobile customers?
Jennifer Parmentier:
So as Lee mentioned, there's a certain amount of rebalancing going on there as well as dealers are starting to get some inventory. But it kind of goes in line with the constant analysis we do on the backlog to make sure that there are no pushouts, there are no cancellations. And in discussion with some of our big OE mobile customers, they are adamant that the orders, the backlog are real. And some have even commented that if they happen to get a cancellation from one customer, they have another customer who will take that slot right away. So we still feel pretty positive about that. But again, as -- if the supply chain is improving, it's helping us. So I think we're in a pretty good position there.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Julian, I would just add. Lee brought this up earlier, but you think about the North America portfolio, that does include LORD. That does include the CLARCOR businesses. There's a significant amount of aftermarket that we benefit from in the North America business, and I think that's helped offsetting some of these larger OEM callouts.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Longer cycle.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.
Joseph O’Dea:
First question is just related to field inventory. I think some of the corrections have been going on for several quarters now. And so what your views are, both at an OEM level and a distributor level and maybe even if you take it by region. But just how far along that process is? Are those headwinds actually starting to abate a bit?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Well, I think as we've gone through the regions, what we've talked about here is that first, again, backlog coverage remains strong. Destocking is continuing. We probably saw a little more of that in North America in Q1 than we had anticipated, and it's continuing. But as Lee pointed out, the overall channel sentiment is very positive. As I was just mentioning before, international, too, I mean, the backlog is strong, too, there. But the orders have been choppy. So to try and say where that's going to wind up in the next quarter or 2, we'll have a better update for you in February. But as Lee mentioned, this is -- and international is really a story about China recovery remaining slow and the impact that it has on -- and on Europe. So continued softness there in industrial markets, and destocking is continuing.
Joseph O’Dea:
And then, Jenny, I wanted to ask on investment spend and just strategic focus as you think about opportunities over the next 1 to 2 years and really, in particular, on the industrial side of the business. But across the regions, across technologies, where you're trying to direct the most emphasis right now because of the biggest opportunities that you see for returns on some of that spend?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, our CapEx goal has increased from 1.5% to 2%. We were at 2%, a little bit above in fiscal year '23. And we're forecasting 2% for fiscal year '24. It's a pretty big increase from our 10-year average. And our focus is on safety, automation, robotics, some AI tools on AI-driven inspection, so things that are really going to help us increase our efficiency and our productivity. We're investing in the supply chain. And then we're investing in specific divisions where we have -- we need to support secular growth. So, for instance, electrification projects with our customers. So when we look at this, the investing in the supply chain is something that we think will help us well into the future and make sure that we have not only those local-for-local strategy is intact, but dual sourcing strategies. And so that investment, we expect that to pay dividends well into the future.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho.
Brett Linzey:
Congrats to Lee. Appreciate all the insight over the years. Wanted to come back to some of the market choppiness and the destock. I guess what is Parker doing from a cost-containment standpoint? In the quarter, international volumes down, margins up. Is this just simply throttling back on discretionary? Are you taking more structural simplification actions and how that positions you?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. So we always say that we're planning for the next recession, right? So what is evident with our Q1 performance is that executing The Win Strategy in a slower-growth environment works, right? So every tool, and I say this because I've used The Win Strategy to run Parker divisions and Parker groups. Every tool in that Win Strategy helps to expand margins. So it can be anywhere from adjusting your discretionary spending, changing the way you staff the operation to how you order material for your production. So there's a lot of levers that our general managers can pull. And they become very agile and flexible. And they have learned how to look around corners and see demand changes coming. So we're very proud of what they do on the downside as well as the upside to make sure that we get the best return.
Brett Linzey:
Yes. That's great. And then just one more on orders. Just curious how the sequential evolution of orders played out through the quarter into October. Any discernible pattern that might give you confidence that we could be some [indiscernible] to the bottom here?
Jennifer Parmentier:
We'll give you an update on that in February.
Todd Leombruno:
Brett, I wanted to just touch on that restructuring comment. There's been no change to our restructuring plans for the fiscal year. We do this all the time. This is not something that we wait for. I think we have $70 million of restructuring costs in the guide for the year. And that's the beauty of the decentralization of all the markets. Our businesses are doing what they need to do depending on what's happening in their businesses all around the world. So we're not waiting for any kind of high sign to do restructuring. We constantly do that. To Jenny's point, it's part of The Win Strategy, and it's part of what we do every day.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
I add my congratulations on retirement to Lee and [indiscernible]. I'm going to ask David and Julian's question a little bit of a different way. Parker has been through many order downturns over the years. And while every downturn is different, the math always tends to be the same. You see 3 to 5, maybe 6 quarters of negative order rates. The magnitude of those declines are either a mid-cycle pause or a recession. We've got to the point where we're now 3 to 5 quarters of negative order rates. Is this starting to feel more like a mid-cycle pause in the recession we've been trying to talk ourselves into for the last 18 months? And maybe just any comments around the feelings you guys have about this downturn relative to the downturns that you've seen previously.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, I'll start off just by saying that I think as evidenced by past performance, we're able to handle these downturns, and we just weather them better each time, right? So with the transformation of the portfolio, again, I think we're going to continue to see a longer cycle view of the backlog, and we're going to be less susceptible to the dips. So I think we're just in a really good position going forward to be able to achieve our organic growth targets and really perform at a higher level. We're going to keep expanding margins in a slower-growth environment and be very well positioned for when some of this returns on the industrial side.
Todd Leombruno:
Nathan, too, we've said this a couple of times, but we've never had as high a percentage of aerospace exposure across the whole portfolio. So it's over 30% of the portfolio, and that part of the business is extremely strong right now. So we're benefiting from that as well.
Nathan Jones:
Yes. I was just talking about the industrial businesses that understand that there [indiscernible] dynamic. And then just one on Meggitt. You guys have talked about that outperforming. I think it's clearly seeing better growth, the market seeing better growth likely leading to some [indiscernible] margins here. You had targeted year 5 high single-digit ROI. Is the double-digit ROI on this business with the outperformance now within reach in year 5?
Todd Leombruno:
Nathan, we couldn't be more happy with the way that business is performing. It still is early days. We just had the 1-year anniversary. Growth is robust. The margin performance has been good. And if you remember, we had a 3-year plan here on synergies and our focus is executing that. It's kind of performing better than our expectations. So we're happy with it.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. We'll wait till the upgrade of that target.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Thanks, Nathan. Diego, I think we got time for one more question.
Operator:
Okay, and that question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Lee, you've had a lot of callouts, but we will like dream of walking off on a high, and that's certainly what you're doing. So congrats and enjoy. Enjoy the rest of the year before you retire. So backlog, I've got to say I'm surprised you didn't consume more backlog based on what we're hearing elsewhere. Maybe you could confirm, Todd. I'm calculating maybe $100 million of sequential backlog consumption in industrial in that kind of range. I was wondering, are you seeing more like longer cycle, lumpier orders coming through the backlog here? I mean, just any color there would be helpful.
Todd Leombruno:
Nigel, you're saying specifically on aerospace?
Nigel Coe:
Industrial, industrial.
Todd Leombruno:
Excuse me, industrial. I think you're about right on the number that you're talking about. And again, Jenny and Lee have talked about this. We think it's really just kind of more rebalancing, nothing overly concerning at this point in the cycle yet. I can't say that we're seeing anything more lumpiness from the industrial orders. There are some project-based things in there, but it's nothing significant in comparison to the total.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Great. And as the last question, I guess, is the cleanup questions here. But I'm getting -- when I bridge the current guide to the previous guide for FY '24, I'm getting $0.40 from the margin uplift, about $0.10 in taxes [indiscernible] taxes, about $0.10 of interest. Is that right? That gets me to $0.60 or thereabouts, which is the increase. And there's nothing [indiscernible] for FX. Is that right?
Todd Leombruno:
The only thing we did for FX was updated the currency rates to September 30. So there's a little bit of a headwind on the sales line. That translates throughout the P&L, but it's really just an update, [indiscernible] major.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Great. Well, sorry for the low-level questions there.
Todd Leombruno:
No. No worries. No worries. Yes, and we can follow up with you more.
Lee Banks:
I think we're almost at the end. I'm going to pass it back to Todd. This is Lee. I just want to say thank you for all the nice callouts from everybody. It's 32 years. It's been a long run. During that 32 years, I've worked for 4 CEOs, 3 of them directly. Every CEO has taken the baton from their predecessor and run the race faster. And I've got no doubt in my mind that Jenny and this team is going to do the same thing. So thank you, and hopefully, we'll see you around.
Todd Leombruno:
Lee, you're definitely going to see us around. Congratulations to you and Elizabeth and your whole family. I know they're going to enjoy more Lee time. And we are going to miss you. So congratulations again. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. This does conclude our FY '24 Q1 webcast. As usual, Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available if anyone needs any kind of follow-ups. Thank you all for joining, and everyone, have a great day. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you, and that concludes today's call. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.
Operator:
Hello and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation’s Fiscal 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you so much, Donna. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker Hannifin’s fiscal year ‘23 fourth quarter and full year earnings release webcast. As Donna said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. And with me today for the webcast is Jenny Parmentier, our Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. I think everyone knows we released our results and all of these slide materials this morning. Our comments today will address forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. On slide 2 of this presentation, you will find specific details to the disclosures that we are making in respect to both, non-GAAP financial measures and forward projections. And just as a reminder, actual results could vary from what we speak about today in this presentation based on all of the items listed here in these disclosures. Our press release, this presentation and all reconciliations are available under the Investors section at parker.com, and those will remain available for one year. Today, we’re going to start with Jenny addressing some of the highlights of our strong fourth quarter and really what was a transformational fiscal year for Parker. She is also going to reiterate some reasons that show why Parker is so well positioned for the future. I’m going to follow up with just some color on how the quarter wrapped up and provide some details around our initial FY24 guidance that we released this morning. Jenny will wrap up the call with some key messages, and then we’re going to open up the lines for Q&A for Jenny, Lee or myself. So, now, I’ll ask you all to move to slide 3. And Jenny, I’ll hand it over to you.
Jenny Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Q4 was a quarter of outstanding performance across all of Parker. Starting with safety. We remain in the top quartile with a 20% reduction in recordable incidents. Safety has been and will remain our top priority. We had record sales of $5.1 billion in the quarter, a 22% increase over prior year with organic growth of 6%. This is our second quarter above $5 billion in sales. We achieved record adjusted segment operating margin of 24%, a 110 basis-point increase over prior year. And as we discussed last quarter, our backlog coverage remains resilient at 55% and has increased 1% sequentially. The Win Strategy and portfolio changes have delivered a strong finish to a great year. Next slide, please. A great and transformational year. On the right side of the page, you can see highlights from fiscal year ‘23. Again, it all starts with our team. Top-quartile safety and engagement delivers these results. We now have approximately 30% of the portfolio in aerospace and defense, and we couldn’t be happier with the progress of the Meggitt integration. The team is exceeding our expectations. And a record $3 billion operating cash flow, 22% higher than prior year, allowing us to make great progress in paying down debt. Todd will give you a few more details on this in his upcoming slides. Next slide, please. Many of you have seen this slide before. As you know, over the past eight years, we have strategically reshaped the portfolio to double the size of aerospace, filtration and engineered materials. I’d like to draw your attention to the middle of the page for the FY23 update. The dotted line represents where we originally forecasted our longer-cycle and secular trends revenue to be at the end of the year. The arrow and new solid line represent that we have realized a bigger shift to longer-cycle revenue. The combination of the portfolio changes and secular trends is already and will continue to create a profound shift in our revenue mix. We have high confidence that by FY27, we will have approximately 85% of the Company in long-cycle end markets and industrial aftermarket. This mix shift is further reason why we will grow differently in the future. Next slide, please. Diving a little deeper into our future sales growth drivers. The five buckets on this slide will allow us to achieve our FY27 target of 4% to 6% organic growth over the cycle. The Win Strategy is our business system. It delivers growth and financial performance. Every tool in this system expands margins. CapEx reinvestment is addressing the last decade of underinvestment as well as investments to strengthen and develop the supply chain. This will result in increased equipment spend and higher levels of automation. And under innovation, our new product blueprinting tools and Simple by Design principles have increased our product vitality index, that is the percent of sales from new products. This enables faster growth and support of the secular trends. The acquisitions we have made are great companies with higher growth rates, aftermarket and accretive margins. We continue to benefit from the growth related to secular trends. We expect multiple years of solid growth in aerospace driven by both commercial and defense. And we are enjoying an increased bill of material on all electric passenger vehicles and continue to partner with our mobile customers on electrifying their equipment and helping them to achieve their carbon-neutral goals. And today, two-thirds of our portfolio enables these clean technologies. Again, all of this giving us high confidence to grow differently than we have in the past and achieve our 4% to 6% organic growth over the cycle. Next slide, please. As a reminder, living up to our purpose, top-quartile performance and being great generators and deployers of cash is what drives Parker. This slide provides an update on living up to our purpose, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. We are committed and on track to be carbon-neutral by 2040 and achieved a 20% carbon reduction in fiscal year ‘23. And we are proud to be in the first quartile of the Carbon Disclosure Project on climate change. Post pandemic, our teams were anxious to get back into the communities where we work and volunteered over 10,000 hours in fiscal year ‘23 to help serve others. And again, our clean technologies are critical in helping our customers achieve their carbon-neutral goals. Next slide, please. The combination of our growth drivers and living up to our purpose points to a very promising future for Parker. We are committed to our FY27 targets of growing EPS from $21.55 to $30 and achieving 25% adjusted segment operating margin. Growth from secular trends, continued transformation of the portfolio with Meggitt and continuing to accelerate our performance with Win Strategy 3.0 will drive top-quartile performance and organic growth of 4% to 6% over the cycle. We have entered fiscal year 2024 on a solid foundation. The guidance that we are sharing with you today reflects continued progress to these FY27 goals. Todd will go through the quarter and the guide, and then I will be back with more comments on our guide assumptions and why we are still very bullish about the future and the 4% to 6% organic growth over the cycle. Over to you, Todd.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jenny. If everyone’s following, I’m going to start on slide 10. And I’m really proud to say once again, every Q4 number highlighted in this gold box is a record for the Company. It was really just an unbelievably strong finish to the fiscal year. I’m going to try to move quickly because Jenny already spoke to the 22% sales growth and the 24% segment operating margin. But in respect to sales, organic growth was 6%. When you take a look at the Meggitt acquisitions and the divestitures that we did in FY23, the net addition for the quarter was 16%. And the good news here is on currency, the headwinds have moderated. It’s now was just a slight a headwind of 0.4% in the quarter. One thing I do want to note is adjusted EBITDA margins, 24.4%. That’s an increase of 130 basis points versus prior year. And if you continue down the page, both net income and adjusted earnings per share did increase by 18% versus the prior year. Our adjusted net income was $791 million or a 15.5% return on sales, and adjusted EPS was $6.08 in the quarter. That is an increase of $0.92 or 18% versus prior year. Internally, we always stress how important it is to finish strong. And really, these results are just really a testament to the resilience of our global team. So, thank you to everyone for a great Q4 and a great fiscal year ‘23. If you move to slide 11, this is just a bridge on how we generated that $6.08. This is a $0.92 walk. And I’m proud to say, again, you could see the biggest bar on this page is increased segment operating income. If you look at that, we increased segment operating dollars by $264 million. That’s nearly 28% increase year-over-year. That added $1.63 of EPS to our total for the quarter. There were a few headwinds below the segment that are really no surprise. Obviously, that interest is 100% related to Meggitt. That’s consistent with what we’ve seen in past quarters. And income tax was favorable this year in the quarter. Even though we did finish favorable, it was a headwind of $0.19 compared to what we did last quarter. And if you think about that, last quarter, we did have a few onetime items that were related with the acquisition that were favorable and some higher discretes last year. Those were obviously non-repeating issues this year. So the story on the walk is just really strong operating execution, and it’s really across the board. If you move to slide 12, just some details on the segment performance. Every segment delivered positive organic growth this quarter, but they also delivered positive margin expansion, you can see across the board here. Incrementals were very strong, and all of these margins are records. And I’m also proud to say, even with the challenging comparisons, orders did increase from last quarter to a plus-3% versus prior year. And our backlog did increase 1% sequentially and did reach a record, $11 billion. So this is really the result of robust aerospace activity but also the changes to the portfolio that we spoke to throughout the year. Just jumping into the North American businesses. Sales were very strong, $2.3 billion. That was 5% organic. That’s really right in line with our guide. Adjusted operating margins did increase 60 basis points to 23.5%, really just driven by excellent execution across those North American businesses. Incrementals also did improve sequentially, and that helped drive our margin expansion. One thing to note, orders did turn negative to 8%, but that really still is against tough comps. We still have strong backlog coverage that we believe will continue to support growth. And customer sentiment overall remains positive in North America. So, all-in-all, a great quarter and a great finish by our North American team members. If you look at the international businesses, sales were $1.5 billion; organic growth, nearly 4%. Organic growth did remain positive in all of our international regions, really led by Asia Pacific, 8.5%, almost 8.6%. Latin America was 2.5% positive. And even EMEA, which we’ve seen some softness, did post a 1% positive organic growth. Even with all that said, margins did increase 90 basis points, finished at 23.3% versus prior year and really still continue to reflect consistent performance, productivity improvement, good cost controls and that increase in distribution mix that we’ve talked about periodically. Orders in the international business did improve from last quarter. They are still negative 1, but it is a nice improvement from last quarter. And again, from our international team members, great consistent performance, and I’m glad to see these results. If you move to aerospace, this is really the story of the quarter, really a standout, just fantastic results all around. Sales are $1.3 billion, 16% organic. Total sales are a 90% increase versus prior year. That’s really obviously benefiting from the Meggitt acquisition. But if you look at the business, commercial OEM and MRO continue to be very strong. Both of those businesses are growing at plus 20% versus prior in the quarter. The military OEM business did return to growth this quarter with high single-digit organic performance. That was really nice to see. And operating margins, a new record high, really increasing an impressive 160 basis points to 25.8%. Those strong margins reflect that growth in the commercial aftermarket businesses and really notably a nice favorable mix of spares versus repairs. So, you can also see the addition of Meggitt has also increased our aftermarket exposure. That was one of the compelling aspects of that acquisition. We’re glad to see that materialize in the results. The aerospace team is really doing a phenomenal job, obviously, dealing with growth. The integration is ahead of schedule and on track, and these results are really fantastic to see. It’s really truth that Parker and Meggitt are really better together. If you look at aerospace order rates, plus 28%, continues to be robust and then obviously, it’s helping our backlog. Great performance across the segments. If I jump to slide 13, I just want to highlight our cash flow performance. We finished the year with extremely strong cash flow. It was a record in FY23. We increased cash flow from operations 22%. We reached a record $3 billion of cash flow from operations. That’s 15.6% of sales. Free cash flow, also very strong, $2.6 billion or 13.6% of sales. Our CapEx came in right where we were forecasting, 2%. And just as a note, because this was the closing of Meggitt, we did have some transaction-related expenses that were a drag to cash flow that was about 1% of sales. So those obviously aren’t going to repeat next year. And we have set ourselves up extremely well to be great generators of cash. If you look at conversion, free cash flow conversion for the year, 125%. And I just really want to thank our teams for the great work on working capital. We strive to be great generators, great deployers of cash, and reaching this $3 billion milestone is really the result of significant effort from our team across the globe. If you go to slide 14, you can see what we did with all that cash. We reduced debt by $850 million in the quarter. Since we closed Meggitt just this fiscal year in September, we have reduced our debt by $1.4 billion. Since announcing Meggitt, way back in August of 2021, we have already paid down approximately 35% of the total consideration of nearly $10 billion. So, very impressive work across the board by our team. If you look at leverage, gross debt to adjusted EBITDA finished the year at 2.8%, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA finished the year at 2.7 -- excuse me, 2.7 times. We’ve spoken about our great track record of how we are so dedicated to quickly deleveraging after the deals. And since closing the transaction in September, we have already reduced leverage by 1 full turn. So we’re proud of that. Looking forward to next year, we expect to generate significant cash flow. We think we can reduce debt by an additional $2 billion in FY24. And we are targeting leverage of 2 times in early FY25. Okay. So moving to guidance and putting FY23 to bed. You could see what we are looking at here is slide 15. And I’ll start with the top line. Reported sales growth for the year is forecasted to be in the range of 3% to 6% or 4.5% at the midpoint. That equates to approximately $19.9 billion in total sales. If you look at the split, the first half is 49% and the second half is 51%. Speaking specifically to organic growth, for the full year, we expect it to be 1.5% at the midpoint. In respect to aerospace, we’re expecting high single-digit growth in aerospace, a little over 8%. North America organic, we expect that to still be positive at plus 1%. And international, we are forecasting slightly negative at 2.5%. Those are all full year numbers. The backlog that I just spoke of earlier does support our growth, so we feel confident in these numbers. And if you look at the breakdown, the guidance does assume acquisition sales, roughly $500 million from Meggitt, offset by $400 million of the divestitures that we did complete in FY23. So, the net impact is $460 million or about 2.5% of our total sales. I mentioned currency earlier based on spot rates as of June 30th. We do expect currency to be a slight tailwind of 0.5% or roughly $100 million. So, that is based on currency rates as of June 30th. We still see margin expansion this year, 30 basis points is what we’re forecasting for FY24. That is all based on continuing to accelerate our performance across all of our businesses using the Win Strategy and, of course, delivering on Meggitt synergies that we have communicated. If you look at adjusted segment operating margin, our guidance is 23.2% at the midpoint, and there is a range of 20 basis points on either side of that midpoint. If you look at operating income dollars -- segment operating income dollars, the split is 47% first half, 53% second half. And for the full year, we are forecasting incremental margins of 30%. Few other items in respect to guidance. Corporate G&A is $240 million. That’s a full year number. Interest expense is $525 million. That is a $40 million reduction from where we finished in FY23, really just based on our strong debt pay-down. And other expense is $25 million. Full tax rate, we’re guiding at 23.5%. That is without any discrete items that is really a continuing rate from operations, 23.5%. And finally, we expect full year as reported EPS of $18.55 or on an adjusted basis, $22.40. The range -- those are both midpoint numbers. The range on either side of those is $0.50, plus or minus. And the split is 46% first half, 54% second half. And just specifically for Q1 of FY24, we are forecasting adjusted EPS to be $5.10 at the midpoint. Looking at cash flow. Full year free cash flow is expected to be between $2.6 billion and $3 billion. So, will be mid-teens free cash flow, and our conversion will be over 100%. Also included in the appendix is subsegment guidance details and some other specifics that you might find helpful. If I move to slide 16, this is just a bridge and really highlights as follow, again, very similar to what’s happened throughout this fiscal year. The organic growth, the acquisition sales, margin expansion and the $75 million of incremental Meggitt synergies for the year translate to an increase in segment operating income of $1.47. We will have less interest expense next year based on that debt reduction that we’ve done, but -- and that will add $0.23 to EPS. Our forecasted tax rate of 23.5% is a headwind of $0.26. But remember, we had a lot of favorable items in FY23. We’re not forecasting those to continue. We also had lower interest income. If you remember, we prefunded those -- the Meggitt transaction in June of last year. So, we had interest income in the first quarter of last year. That was about $35 million. Just to note, that is reported in the other expense/income line on the business segment statement. That was a one-off benefit that obviously will not repeat in FY23. That’s a $0.21 headwind. The rest is just a forecasted $0.20 unfavorable to EPS, and there’s just some really some non-repeating items in there. And obviously, share count is also a $0.10 headwind that we hope to make up. So, that’s a walk from FY23 to FY24. EPS at the midpoint is forecasted to be $22.40. So with that, Jenny, I’ll hand it back to you and ask everyone to move to slide 17.
Jenny Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Just a few key messages to close this out. So, FY23 was a tremendous year with record performance. We have top-quartile safety and engagement, and that continues to drive results in our business. We truly have a great team. We have a proven track record, and we’re going to continue to accelerate our performance with the Win Strategy 3.0. The transformation of the portfolio is clearly delivering on longer cycle and more resilient portfolio, and this will allow us to achieve our FY27 targets and continue to be great generators and deployers of cash. So before we go into Q&A, I’d like to give you a few of our assumptions and comments on the guide. So obviously, aerospace is a real growth differentiator for Parker in fiscal year ‘24. We are projecting total aerospace growth at 17% with the acquisition sales from Meggitt and organic growth of 8%. We see strong mid-teens growth in commercial and mid-single-digit in military. Good story all the way around. We have now had two years in a row of double-digit growth for industrial. But having said that, as Todd mentioned, industrial orders have been negative for the past two quarters. However, in North America, backlog coverage is still above 30%, which is roughly double what it has been in the past, and it will support the growth we have in the first half. We do expect some destocking to continue, but overall sentiment from our customers is positive about steady demand and future growth. Obviously, there’s more macroeconomic uncertainty for the second half, and we’ll update you on that in future calls. While we did see an improvement in international orders from Q3 to Q4, this does include a benefit coming from some of those multi-period, longer-cycle orders and an easier comp from last year’s China COVID shutdown. Again, the backlog coverage remains above 30%. But as Todd said, we are forecasting negative growth for the first half and full year. Since the last time we talked, we’ve seen some signs of Europe slowing. Customers are returning to those seasonal shutdowns where they do maintenance in their facilities, and we’re starting to see some softness in some of the end and geographic markets as well as some weakening macroeconomic indicators. And although China had stronger growth in Q4 than Q3, recovery is slower than anticipated, and then we will face a tough comp in Q1 against prior year China COVID rebound. So in summary, this is our thinking right now
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Today’s first question is coming from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just wanted to start off with the industrial businesses. Maybe give us a bit more color on the assumptions for international. It sounds like you’ve got a down first half organic sales and also down second half organic sales in the guide. So, are you sort of assuming heavy negative orders pressure there for the coming six months or so? Just wanted to check that. And broadly on destocking, any regions or markets to call out in particular where that’s most severe?
Jenny Parmentier:
So first of all, your question on international, like I was talking about earlier, obviously, the backlog is still strong. It’s above 30%. But those customer shutdowns that I mentioned, that takes weeks out of the schedule that we hadn’t seen previously. So, a return to that is one of the reasons. And then obviously, since the last time we talked, we’ve seen a slowing in Europe. We’ve seen the demand not be as strong in certain regions. And then the China recovery is -- we haven’t seen the rebound from the stimulus that had been previously anticipated. So, that is all weighing in there as well.
Julian Mitchell:
I see. And maybe just following up on the sort of the destocking comments you’ve made. Any more color on markets or geographies most affected?
Jenny Parmentier:
So, we did see destocking happen in Q4, and we just expect that to continue through the first half. I’ll let Lee comment a little bit on the specifics of some regions and markets.
Lee Banks:
Yes. Julian, it’s Lee. I think destocking, mostly at the distribution level, there’s -- it’s been going on for a couple of quarters. They were holding more inventory than usual. But I would tell you the sentiment is still strong. So, we’ve seen destocking across our European distributors and in North America. Maybe too, just a little more color on Europe, as Jenny was talking about, the biggest softness really is around the DACH region. So that would be Germany, Austria, Switzerland. I think it’s a couple of things. It’s -- the China export market is a big deal for them. And China has not rebounded like we all expected it would. And then, I think when you pivot to Asia, with China, the property woes continue to weigh heavily on the business community there. So all the stimulus we read about really hasn’t trickled down to any significant economic activity. I’m still expecting that to change going forward, but those are the plus sides as we move forward.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Julian, this is Todd. I would just add, we don’t have this really first half-, second half-weighted. We are forecasting international in total to be about 2.5% for the full year. And if I look across the year, there’s no real weighting there. It’s about an even split.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. And nice end to a year.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Joe.
Jenny Parmentier:
Thanks, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Maybe just -- hey, just wanted to maybe talk a little bit more about North America. Obviously, you’ve got this little order deceleration, the destocking commentary. Just maybe talk a little bit more about what your expectation is for orders going forward or any comments you can make about how this fiscal first quarter is trending, that would be helpful.
Jenny Parmentier:
Yes. Thank you, Joe. So obviously, we’ve already talked a bit about what we expect to see, a continuing destocking and just kind of a softening in orders despite a very positive sentiment from the customer. So in the first half, in North America, we’re projecting 2% growth and overall for the year, 1%. So, we think that there’s some macroeconomic uncertainty in the second half. But in the first half, we fully believe that this strong backlog is going to support what we have in the guide. So, the backlog, again, above 30%, a little bit down, about 2% down, from last quarter but very strong. And in talking with our customers, we continue to constantly pressure test this and analyze it. And we’re not really seeing any major pushouts or cancellations, so we feel good about the guide we have out there.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, great. And then maybe just focusing to aero. I guess it’s funny, like you’re expecting 8% growth -- good growth. But why is 8% the right number? It feels like it could be better than that and then -- particularly with military inflecting. And then also, would love to get any color around where the integration is going better than expected with Meggitt.
Jenny Parmentier:
Sure, sure. So, the first half for aero is 12%. So obviously, we’re going to see some nice growth here in the first half. And in the second half, we have 5%. And the comps get pretty tough in the second half. So, we feel good about that 8% organic number right now. So obviously, we’re seeing really nice growth in commercial OEM. We see those narrow-body rates increasing. Wide-bodies are starting to recover, but really, it’s a story about narrow-body rate increases. And then MRO, as Todd mentioned earlier, the Meggitt acquisition has really increased our aftermarket exposure. And it’s been really strong with the air traffic recovery, especially with those narrow-bodies. And we’re pleased to see military OEM return. Obviously, the military budget increase is going to drive mid- and long-term growth. F-35 is nearing peak delivery. So all good news there. And then, same thing with military MRO. I mean, there’s a focus on retrofits and upgrades as the fleet ages. So really good outlook for all of aerospace going forward. So, you questioned about Meggitt integration. I mentioned in the slides, we couldn’t be happier with the progress of that integration. We’re forecasting another $75 million in synergies in FY24. Team did a great job in FY23 of pulling some actions ahead and allowing us to increase those synergies by $15 million. So really just a positive outlook for aerospace.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Joe, this is Todd. Just one thing I would add. If you remember a year ago, when we did the Meggitt post-close call, we said that we felt Meggitt could add $0.80 of EPS on a full year basis. We are ahead of that schedule. So that should give you some comfort too, that it is adding EPS to the bottom line as well.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on price and cost. Companies are starting to talk about disinflation, maybe some deflation. What’s the view on the Company’s pricing power into next year and also ability to actually extract price concessions from supply chain?
Lee Banks:
So, we’ve -- you’ve covered us a long time. I mean, the one thing I think we’ve got a good handle on inside the Company is kind of price/cost and the ability to push cost in the price. Every one of our facilities is embedded in our Win Strategy. We look at costs constantly, and we look at price. I would say pricing has become much more normal now. We’re not in that rapid inflationary period. But our goal is always to keep things margin-neutral, and we’re working that. And we’re working the cost side on the supply chain side, too. So I’m comfortable that kind of the price/cost scenario we have is baked into our margin forecast.
Andrew Obin:
Excellent. And then, the other question, you sort of talked about seeing Europe slow down, specifically Germany and the DACH region. If you read the newspapers, economists, politico, a lot of articles about sort of structural slowdown in Germany, right, because exports to China, cheap energy from Russia. Could you give us a slowdown as an opportunity to sort of reconfigure your manufacturing footprint and supply chains in Central -- I would call it, Central Europe or just Western Europe in general? What are your thoughts? And is it too early to say?
Lee Banks:
Well, so first off, we’ve been reconfiguring our supply chains and our manufacturing footprint in Europe for the last 8 or 10 years. I mean, you remember when Tom and I took our roles, we had a big initiative…
Andrew Obin:
I absolutely do, absolutely do.
Lee Banks:
So -- and I would just tell you that that is always ongoing. So, we never stopped with that. And we take every opportunity we can to just continue to be better, and we’re doing that today.
Jenny Parmentier:
Yes. We don’t wait for an event, Andrew. It’s something we’re always working on.
Todd Leombruno:
Andrew, this is Todd as well. I think Lee brings up a good point. We’ve been working that initiative for a long time. And if you look at the margins that I just ran through for Q4 and really what we’re guiding for FY24, you’ll see that those international margins are similar to every other piece of our business. So, that has been a great success.
Lee Banks:
Great European team with great leadership, doing great things, they really are.
Andrew Obin:
No, I appreciate you’ve certainly been doing something right. Thanks a lot.
Lee Banks:
Thank you.
Jenny Parmentier:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Nathan Jones of Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Question on the margin guidance in aerospace. Jenny, you just mentioned $75 million of additional synergies for Meggitt in 2024, which I think is about 150 basis points. And the margin guidance is up about 60 basis points. So maybe just some commentary on the core, I guess, margin decline in 2024. Is that really just a function of increasing commercial OEM as part of the mix or is something else in there?
Jenny Parmentier:
You just answered the question, right? We expect those narrow-body rates to go up, and it’s definitely a matter of mix.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Fair enough. That’s helpful. And then, I guess, just on the M&A outlook now. I mean, you guys have obviously done a sensational job paying down debt post Meggitt back to towards 2 by the end of the fiscal year, early in ‘25. What are kind of your criteria for getting more materially back into the M&A market and the shape of the pipeline? I know you guys continue to cultivate that even when you’re out of the market. Just commentary on plans there?
Jenny Parmentier:
Yes. So, we’re committed first to pay down our debt. That is our number one priority and our focus. We’re always working in the pipeline. We have long-standing relationships with people we talk to now as we have in the past. So, that’s not something that we ever let go stale or dry. It’s a continuous pipeline. So, for now, we’re focused on paying down debt, and we expect to get in the range of about 2 times by fiscal year 2025. And I’m sure we’ll talk about it in the future.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague:
Just wanted to follow up on your comments on price/cost margin-neutral. I believe you got yourself the price/cost margin-accretive through this period. Kind of correct me if I’m wrong on that. But should we kind of expect that trend back to neutral to occur here in ‘24, or can you actually maintain some kind of positive spread?
Lee Banks:
Well, I think, Jeff, again, you followed us, we’ve always maintained some kind of positive spread. We’re always looking at the portfolio. We’re sunsetting products. We’ve got different strategic pricing initiatives. But I would tell you, we deal with a lot of core tough customers, and pricing is very competitive. It’s really what we do with the balance of the portfolio that helps us out. And as we’ve talked about in the past, one of the great strengths of this company is the distribution base we have, which gives us a great opportunity to kind of price into that market.
Jeff Sprague:
Understood. And then, Jenny, just back to aero. Can you be a little bit more explicit about what your aero commercial aftermarket assumption is inside the guide? And is the growth similar at legacy Parker aero and Meggitt on those metrics?
Jenny Parmentier:
I guess, I would say, first of all, that it is very similar. But obviously, the Meggitt acquisition, as we’ve mentioned, has meaningfully increased our aftermarket exposure. So it’s mid-teens is what we’re projecting right now. And again, that air traffic recovery, especially with the narrow-bodies with this high domestic traffic, is that really what’s going to help that into the fiscal year.
Operator:
The next question is coming from David Raso of Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
On the margins industrially that you had them up despite in aggregate, your industrial organic sales are down. Just want to make sure I understand, the destocking that you’re referring to, I think that probably is distribution, which would be a challenging mix if that’s your destock. Are you also referencing, though, maybe a more balanced destock? It’s at OEs as well? I’m just trying to get a sense of the ability to have margins up when you’re destocking distributions, a heavy lift. So, I’m just curious if you could color on that. And maybe the -- what’s in the backlog? It sounds like the backlog will help carry the first part of the fiscal year. Although margins particularly positive, what will be coming out of the backlog? Just trying to get a sense of the margin progression and how to have margins up if organic is down industrially for top line.
Jenny Parmentier:
Yes. So David, primarily when we talk about destocking, we are talking about distribution. But we’re just seeing a kind of a moderation of growth across all of our customers. So, don’t worry about margin degradation. We’re not going to allow that. We have all the right things in place to make sure that we hit our margin targets. So really, it’s about -- we’re just continuing to see the benefit of this transformed portfolio, right? We’re continuing to see the power of the acquisitions that we’ve done over the last several years.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey David, this is Todd. I would just add to that. Jenny is absolutely right. We do believe that we can expand margins both in the North American businesses and the international businesses. It really is a testament to the power of the Win Strategy. But if I’m looking at the numbers here, it really is a smooth glide path, very similar to what we’ve done historically with our normal seasonality. So, it’s not weighted in any -- one way or the other. I gave a little color on the splits of segment operating income, but the margin expansion is a nice glide throughout the year.
David Raso:
And maybe I missed it, just a clarification. The first quarter in North America particularly has a hard comp. Are we saying margins could be up every quarter in North America, or is it just for the full year and the first quarter is down and then it’s up from there?
Todd Leombruno:
No, we see margin expansion in every quarter this fiscal year.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Josh Pokrzywinski of Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Jenny, you referenced the backlog here a few times. I think for most folks, they don’t really think about backlog when they think about the industrial pieces of Parker. Clearly, that’s changing, but maybe some more kind of breakdown of how long does that backlog extend out? Is there a particular set of end markets or channel mix? Like I would assume more OEM, maybe more project activity. Just any kind of color you can give us on the nature of that backlog and really the duration over which it ships. Is it kind of one to two quarters, three, four or something like that?
Jenny Parmentier:
So the backlog, as I’ve said, is at 55% right now, and it went up 1% sequentially. So that -- we talk about that backlog being so strong and especially, obviously, aerospace is in there. But in industrial being above 30% is roughly double what it was in the past. So we were sitting around 15% to 17% coverage in the past, and now we have 30%. So that’s really coming from the acquisitions we’ve done, the higher aftermarket, the longer cycle. So we’re seeing a more resilient and longer, I call it the demand horizon, a longer horizon on that backlog. So, we feel very strongly about it. Now we know from the past that backlog isn’t bulletproof, but we are constantly pressure testing it, analyzing it, talking to our customers, which is really a great benefit of us being so decentralized because our divisions can have real-time conversations to make sure that that backlog is strong. So I wouldn’t be able to break out all the details that you were just asking about between the channel and the OEMs, but I would tell you that over 30% coverage in industrial is a good place to be right now. And that’s why we feel good about covering the growth we have in the first half.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That’s helpful. And then -- oh, yes, please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Josh, this is Todd. I was just going to add to that the other thing to keep in mind is when we talk about the Company having 30% aerospace exposure, 5% of that exposure does come from our industrial businesses. So, that is also a plus there as well.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood. That’s helpful. And then just pivoting to something I’ve heard a lot of your peers talk about, particularly this quarter, on U.S. mega projects or, I guess, North American mega projects and near-shoring. Obviously, you folks play in all stages of that, I guess, new products that are being developed here as well as the construction of maybe some of these facilities themselves. Open-ended question, but is that something that in Parker’s, I guess, more kind of component- and subsystem-type business that you’re actually seeing yet, or is it just a little too early and maybe we see that more kind of later in ‘24?
Jenny Parmentier:
We are seeing some of it through our customers and our distributor partners. And you’re right, there’s just been a massive amount of announced CapEx. I mean, some industry sources are citing over $500 billion. Some key examples of that where we will get into the game is the semi fabs and the electric vehicle battery plants that are now breaking ground. So, we win -- Parker wins when the job site is prepped, when the factory is built and when the machines go into the factory. So, it’s early days, but Parker is winning and will continue to win in the future.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Joe O’Dea of Wells Fargo.
Joe O’Dea:
Todd, I wanted to circle back. You talked about Meggitt trending ahead of that $0.80 that you had given about a year ago. Just any sort of color on what you think the all-in Meggitt contribution is this year?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. I would say it’s slightly above that $0.80 that we really forecasted for the first full 12 months. So, we’ve only owned them 9.5 months, but it’s been a fantastic 9.5 months. We’ve talked about the synergies being ahead of schedule, but the other thing is they are benefiting from the secular trend in aerospace. So, their growth has exceeded expectations every quarter since the close. So, we feel really good about that. I’m really happy we got the deal done.
Joe O’Dea:
All right. Got it. And then, Jenny, I wanted to circle back the macro CapEx investment sort of drivers that you talked about, kind of the three main buckets with underinvestment, supply chain, megaprojects. Can you just talk about sort of within those buckets, sort of if you can rank order what you’re seeing is sort of like the biggest growth drivers for you, but also just what you’re seeing in terms of kind of the evolution of them, maybe where things are accelerating, where things have played out a little bit more?
Jenny Parmentier:
Well, I don’t know that I can rank them right now, but I would tell you that I see activity in obviously, all three of them. If you start off just thinking about the CapEx, investment because of the reinvestment over the last 10 years, we’re seeing some -- just some upgrading of factories, a lot of work being done to really develop the supply chain and increase capacity. So, that ties into the investment, a lot of machinery and a lot to help really that supply chain development. A lot of folks that got burned during the pandemic are going to dual source this. So that drives a lot of investment. And as I mentioned just a few minutes ago, the mega projects, we’re starting to see some of that. We’re hearing about involvement in that from some of our distribution partners. And it’s still early days, but there’s a lot out there for us to go win.
Operator:
The next question is coming from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Congrats on a nice quarter. I guess most of my questions have been asked, but I guess just to -- you wouldn’t know this from looking at your results. But in 2023 or 2022, is there any way you can handicap the inefficiencies running to your earnings, whether it was related to supply chain, employees not being back, et cetera? And I’m just wondering, for if any of this is an opportunity for 2024 potential tailwind that’s not implied in your guide. And then my second question, Lee, I don’t think you said this yet. I know you walked through some end-market color. But last quarter, you told us like the percent of the portfolio that was growing versus not growing. I think last quarter, 90% of the portfolio was still in growth mode. Can you give us an update just on your portfolio percent, flat versus growing versus negative?
Lee Banks:
So Jamie, it’s Lee. I guess, I’ll start on a couple of things. One, in terms of -- we’re always striving for productivity and continuous improvement. So certainly, things coming out of COVID were chaotic. Some of that chaos is settling down. So those are opportunities for us, but productivity is increasing. You see it in our numbers and kind of the inefficiencies that were going on are getting better. It’s not perfect. There still are supply chain issues out there, but it’s a far cry from what it was before. I would say when we look at our markets from the backlog that we have, all our markets are still growing at different levels. I mean, it’s kind of interesting, nobody talks about oil and gas anymore, but that’s been incredibly strong, land-based oil and gas here and even offshore here and in Europe. Everything in aerospace is great, and forestry and automotive is still great. North America, anything around electric vehicles is doing really well, and we share a lot of content in those areas. And then, construction equipment is still steady throughout all that as is ag. I think some of the areas have softened, and you’ve seen it with public announcements as the whole area of HVAC is down. I think that’s short term. That will come back. And semicon is soft. And life sciences really just tough comps coming out COVID, things were really going there. The sentiment is it’s just tough comps. So, it’s getting better as we kind of cycle through the comps.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Jamie, this is Todd. I would just add to that, on your 90% question, if you look at our total orders last quarter, they were plus 2. They did move to plus 3. So there really hasn’t been a material change in that percentage of end markets that continue to grow.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question…
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Donna, this is -- sorry to interrupt you. This is Todd. I think we have time for one more question. So, whoever you have next in the queue, that will be our last call.
Operator:
Okay. The next question is coming from Jeffrey Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Just a couple of quick questions. Supply chain in aero has kind of been a problem point. Just wondering what you’re seeing there and how that kind of informs kind of the growth rate and how much it’s may be holding the growth back.
Jenny Parmentier:
Yes. So, it’s interesting. I’ve been talking to a lot of people about supply chain, as always. And the aerospace supply chain is really experiencing what the industrial side of the business did 18 to 24 months ago. So just -- it’s a little bit tough. There’s constraints responding to the high rate increases and demand. But, I would tell you that outside of chips and electronics, we’re starting to see some lead times moderating. But overall, I would say it’s still a constraint for aerospace. So again, we work closely with our suppliers. We’re investing in developing suppliers, especially in aerospace, because obviously, with it being a third of our portfolio, it’s very important to us that we can deliver these orders.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay, great. And then, I think as was the case with LORD, Exotic, the deleveraging process is pretty swift here and seems maybe a little bit ahead. Just level set us on when we start to shift away from debt pay down.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Jeff, this is Todd. Obviously, Jenny mentioned it earlier. We are fully committed to debt pay down. So if you look at what I mentioned earlier, we expect to pay down another $2 billion of debt in this fiscal year, FY24. We don’t expect to get to 2.0 times till early FY25. So, we talked about the portfolio. We never stop looking at it both from an addition and a subtraction standpoint. But our main focus really is still for FY23 is to continue that debt pay down trajectory.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. This concludes our FY23 Q4 webcast. As always, we fully appreciate everyone’s interest in Parker, Jeff Miller, our VP of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, are available if anyone needs any further clarifications or has any questions on any of the materials we covered this morning. I want to really thank everyone for joining. We appreciate your support. Thanks.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin’s Fiscal 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Chris. And good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker’s fiscal year 2023 Q3 earnings release webcast. As Chris said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer, speaking. And joining me today is Jennifer Parmentier, our Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. Our third quarter results were released this morning. And just a reminder, today we will be addressing forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. On Slide 2 of this presentation you will find further details to our disclosure in these areas. Actual results may vary from our projections based on some of the details that are listed on this slide. Our press release, this presentation and all reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are available under our Investors section at parker.com, and they will remain available for one year. We're going to begin the call today with Jenny addressing highlights of the third quarter and really touching on how Parker is so well positioned for the future. I will follow with a brief financial summary and then review the increase to our guidance that we released this morning. Jenny will then wrap up with summary comments, and then Jenny, Lee and myself will address any questions from the queue. I will all ask you now to address yourself to Slide 3. And Jenny, I'll hand over to you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning to everyone and thank you for joining our call today. Q3 was a quarter of outstanding performance across all of Parker. Starting with safety. We remain in the top quartile with a 17% reduction in recordable incidents. Safety has been and will continue to be our top priority. We had record sales of $5.1 billion in the quarter, a 24% increase over prior year with organic growth of 12%. The Win Strategy and portfolio changes have clearly delivered record performance, driving a full year guidance increase. We are increasing the quarterly dividend 11% over last year, and we are happy to report today that the Meggitt integration and synergies are ahead of schedule for fiscal year 2023. Moving to Slide 4, please. We couldn't be more pleased with the enthusiasm and dedication of the talented Meggitt team, further evidence to the shared heritage and culture identified early in the acquisition process. From the start of the integration, safety and engagement has been top priority. We have the key leaders and structure in place to ensure performance into the future and the Win Strategy deployment is well underway. The team picture on the right of this page is from a recent Kaizen event held in the Ansty Park UK location. And at the end of March, we held a Win Strategy training session here in Cleveland with over 50 leaders from various Meggitt locations. There are multiple examples of where the Win Strategy has already taken root and is being used to improve the business. We are confident in our assumptions around working capital opportunities and are already starting to see some of them materialized. We are increasing our FY 2023 synergies from $60 million to $75 million, and we remain committed to achieving $300 million in synergies by FY 2026. Slide 5, please. With the addition of Meggitt to our portfolio, we are well positioned for long aerospace cycle growth. We have significant content on premier commercial and military programs, all the right ones with a growing bill of material. These are long life cycle programs with a growing aftermarket well into the future. As a reminder, with the addition of Meggitt, our aerospace aftermarket has increased 500 basis points. We are greatly benefiting from the recovery of the aerospace market. Commercial MRO and OEM is very strong and military is positioned to do well in the upcoming years. With the addition of Meggitt complementary technologies, we provide a comprehensive offering and a stronger bill of material that allows us to add value and help solve our customers' problems. We have key technologies such as advanced sensors for more efficient engine control, thermal management systems for higher heat loads and lightweight materials for reduced fuel consumption, all of these enabling sustainable aviation. Aerospace and defense markets are now 30% of our sales. All of this adds up to significantly increased shareholder value. Slide 6, please. Many of you have seen this slide before as we introduced it last year at our Investor Relations Day. Over the last eight years, we have strategically reshaped the portfolio to double the size of aerospace, filtration and engineered materials. The combination of the portfolio changes and secular trends is already and will continue to create a profound shift in our sales mix. By FY 2027, we will have approximately 85% of the company in long cycle end markets or industrial aftermarket. This mix shift is further reason while we will grow differently in the future, and it is why we are committed to our FY 2027 target of 4% to 6% organic growth over the cycle. Slide 7, please. A lot of discussion, questions and inquiries lately on backlog. And as you can see by the chart on the left of this page, our backlog is at a record level. What is encouraging is that in Q3, we saw our backlog dollars increased 3% sequentially. Since FY 2016, we've seen a 3x increase in backlog dollars and a 2x increase in backlog coverage. Very important to note here that we are constantly analyzing the backlog at the division and group level and staying close to our customers on the health of the backlog. We know from the past that it isn't bulletproof. But having said that, this consistent growth over time is an indicator that the portfolio changes are changing the company. Slide 8, please. As demonstrated by the strong performance in the quarter, and the increasing power of our transformed portfolio, I want to share a few slides with you on why Parker is built for the present and the future. Slide 9, please. Parker has a proven business system, the Win Strategy 3.0. Whenever I talk to anyone about the Win Strategy, whether it's a new Parker team member or someone externally, I'd say the same thing. Trust me. I've used it and it works. It is a system focused on the fundamentals. We trust the process, and we know that making the safety and engagement of our team members, our top priority consistently delivers results. Our Lean tools, Kaizen culture, supply chain and simplification initiatives have driven margin expansion and will continue to do so well into the future. Our increased aerospace exposure is delivering results today as well as our 800 basis points expansion of international distribution, which still has room for growth. Our innovation sales are two times the previous decade. And we have a new annual incentive plan that incentivizes the right behaviors and driving intensity around profitable growth throughout the whole company. Nearly all of our 65,000 team members are on this plan as of this fiscal year. Now more than ever, we have better top line resilience. Slide 10, please. And the good news is we have significant opportunities ahead. As I mentioned earlier, approximately 85% of our portfolio will be longer cycle and more resilient. There are strong Meggitt growth opportunities well into the future, and we are confident in achieving the $300 million in synergies by FY 2026. The Win Strategy 3.0 performance acceleration will further drive margin expansion and ensure we hit our FY 2027 goals. As I mentioned in our February call, the pandemic and subsequent increase in volume exposed some areas that we can further improve upon to become supply chain leaders. We will utilize new tools and strategies to respond to changing demand while increasing productivity and achieving best-in-class lead times. Simplify design has become a business fundamental and will continue to drive us to design excellence by reducing complexity and overall product costs, thus helping to further expand our margins. We're very excited about zero defects. It's still early days. It exposes the hidden factory, improves quality, reduces cost, expands margins and most importantly, provides a better overall customer experience. And with all of the announced and already initiated Meggitt capital projects in addition to the secular trends, we will grow differently in the future. I'll now hand it over to Todd.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jenny. Just for reference, everyone, I'm going to start on slide 12 with just the Q3 financial summary. It was a stellar quarter for the company. Every number on this page highlighted in the gold box is a record for Q3, every single number. And Jenny did mention this, but we did surpass $5 billion in sales for the first time for a quarter in the history of the company. Reported sales were up 24% versus prior year. Organic sales were very robust at approximately 12% in the quarter, and that did extend our string of double-digit organic growth quarters. The net of acquisitions and divestitures did have a favorable impact on sales. That was approximately 15%. And currency still remains negative, but it's basically exactly as we forecast. It's minus 2.4% impact for the quarter and that is obviously unfavorable to prior year. When you look at adjusted segment operating margins, we did exceed our forecast. We finished at 23.2% for the quarter. That's an increase of 50 basis points versus prior year. It's the first time in history of the company that we surpassed 23% for a full quarter. So impressive results really across the board. When you look at dollars on segment operating margin, we generated nearly $1.2 billion in segment operating margin dollars. That itself is a 27% increase from prior year. And it happens to be the second quarter in a row that the company has generated over $1 billion in adjusted segment operating dollars. When you look at EBITDA, another record here, we surpassed 24% for the first time. In the history of the company, we finished at 24.2% and adjusted net income of $772 or 15.2% ROS, was an improvement of 22% versus prior year. And finally, when you look at EPS, adjusted EPS nearly $6, $5.93 for the quarter. That was an increase of $1.10 or 23% compared to prior year, just outstanding execution for the company for the quarter. When you look at sales, segment operating margin dollars, net income and earnings per share, every single one of those was an increase of greater than 20%. I can tell you, I'm just immensely proud of our team for the record performance. Meggitt is really truly adding value to the company, and the company is just executing soundly across the board. If you go to slide 13, this is just a walk on that $1.10 improvement of EPS year-over-year. And I mentioned on the last slide, the biggest driver of that is our increase in segment operating income dollars. We did basically an additional $250 million in segment operating income. That 27% increase. That added $1.50 to EPS year-over-year. When you look at the corporate G&A and other that was a $0.23 favorable EPS impact that was primarily driven by lower salary and other benefit costs. Interest, as you all know, is a headwind. That was a $0.54 headwind, but 100% of that is attributed to the Meggitt acquisition and of course, what's going on in our rates. You look at income tax that was $0.09 unfavorable. Really, it's driven by some prior year favorable items that were discrete that aren't repeating this year. And really, that's the walk to the $5.93. It's really a stellar number, record 23% increase. If you go to slide 14 across the segments, you can see, as I mentioned, it's really just across the board solid performance. Organic growth was a double-digit positive in every segment. We exceeded our margin expectations across the board and our legacy businesses really perform soundly with incremental margins above 30% in every single segment. Beginning this quarter on orders, we finalized the Meggitt structure. We felt good about that. And going forward, we are including Meggitt orders in both the prior and current period for comparison purposes. And we really feel that, that better reflects the transformed portfolio that Jenny mentioned earlier. So all in, orders remain positive despite really some tough comps versus prior year and finished at plus 2%. Demand remains really broad-based across most of our markets. And Jenny also mentioned this, but I just want to reiterate, the dollar value of orders in the quarter was certainly the highest that we've had in FY 2023, and it did grow 9% sequentially from Q2. And of course, the backlog obviously is up 3% sequentially as well. So our team members are really just executing well to meet our customer expectations and really focus on delivering top quartile results. If you look at the North American businesses, sales really strong at $2.3 billion. Organic growth was just under 12%. Adjusted segment operating margins nearly 23%. And if you remember, there is a dilutive impact on some of the Meggitt businesses that are in the Industrial North American businesses, but like I said before, the legacy business has really outperformed and strong sales growth in supply chains, improving gradually and really just great incrementals across those base businesses and really strong backlog and that demand is very solid across all of our North American businesses. International really outperformed in the quarter. Sales were $1.5 billion. Organic growth exceeded our expectations and finished at just about 10% organic growth versus prior year. Organic growth in the International segment was positive in all regions. EMEA was plus 11%, Asia Pac 8.5%, Latin America 8%. So all positive in every single region in the International segment. Adjusted operating margins were up 70 basis points, finished at 23.4%, really benefiting from that volume, that strong organic growth, but really some focus on cost control and productivity improvements really helped leverage result in the International segment this quarter. Overall, this really strong performance across every region. And then finally, aerospace, secular trend we've talked a lot about. Sales were $1.2 billion. That's almost 90% increase from prior year. That is obviously clearly driven by the Meggitt acquisition. But organic growth led the company in aerospace at 14.5% versus prior year. And really just strong across the board, OEM and MRO commercial businesses, sales and orders are very strong, both being mid-20s positive. And interesting, this quarter, military OEM returned to flat versus down from prior quarter. Operating margin is extremely sound, 23.5%. That's 160 basis point improvement year-over-year. Jenny mentioned it, that the Meggitt integration is going extremely well. Synergies are ahead of schedule. We did raise our synergy estimate for the quarter, $15 million and performance in those businesses continue to impress. Order rates in aerospace, obviously very strong. You look at that order number of plus 25%, but both strong in commercial and military end markets. Just really sound operational performance across the company, no weak spots at all. Moving to slide 15, just talking about our year-to-date cash flow performance. Cash flow from operations was 12.8% of sales. $1.8 billion of cash generated so far this fiscal year, that's 16% over what we did last year. Free cash flow is 10.9%. Our CapEx remains right at 2% like we have been forecasting. There are some one-time transactions that were the result of the Meggitt transaction. That impacts our cash flow by 1.5 points. So without those transactions, those numbers I just gave you would be 1.5% better. And free cash flow continues to be greater than 100%. We're at 111% year-to-date. And just I want to reiterate, for the full year, we continue to forecast cash flow from operations and free cash flow conversion of over $100 million and that free cash flow would be mid-teens for the year. If we go to the next slide, just touching on capital deployment and some leverage. We did increase our quarterly dividend. Our Board approved this last week to an 11% increase. The dividend payout is now $1.48. That is in line with our stated target of being in the range of 30% to 35% of our trailing five-year net income. And the increase this quarter does increase our annual record of increasing annual dividend paid from 66 years to 67 years. So long-standing record that we intend to keep. On leverage, we did make some significant progress reducing leverage this quarter. We paid down approximately $650 million in debt in the quarter. If you look at our gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, it was 3.2, that's down from 3.6 last quarter, so 0.4 turns from Q2. And if you look at the net debt to adjusted EBITDA, finished the quarter at 3.1, that's down 0.3 turns from Q2. So we are pleased with the deleveraging progress. We are on track and we continue to target our leverage commitment of 2.0 times, and we are committed to delivering on our commitments there. Looking at slide 17 and guidance. Obviously, we increased our guidance this morning. We have incorporated obviously the strong performance from Q3, but we've also increased our expectations for Q4. Full year sales growth at the mid point increases to 19% versus prior year, with organic moving up to 10%. That's up from 7% last quarter. When you look at the net impact of acquisitions and divestitures, we expect that to be about 12%. That's just up slightly from 11.5% last quarter and currency remains a headwind, no change to our prior guidance, but the full year, we expect it to be a minus 3. When you look at adjusted segment operating margins, we've increased our full year guide by 40 basis points. We now are forecasting 22.5% for the full year. And the midpoint of adjusted EPS is raised to $20.75 for the full year with a range of plus or minus $0.15. Just some specific details for Q4. We expect organic growth to be approximately 4% in the quarter and segment operating margins to be approximately 22.6%. And finally, EPS for the quarter, we are forecasting $5.32 and at the midpoint, same range wrapped around that. And we've also included guidance by segment and several other details that could be useful for your models in the appendix. So with that, just a really solid quarter. Glad to increase our guide. And with that, Jenny, I'll hand it back to you and ask everyone to reference Slide 18.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. As discussed today, Parker has a very promising future. Our highly engaged team is living up to our purpose as evidenced in the results. We will continue to accelerate our performance using the Win Strategy 3.0. And as mentioned several times, our portfolio transformation is making us longer cycle and more resilient. This will allow us to achieve our FY 2027 targets and continue to be great generators and deployers of cash. We remain committed to top quartile performance. . Next slide, please. A quick look at our upcoming events for the rest of the calendar year. And with that, Chris, we are ready for questions.
Operator:
Thank you. At this time we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning.
Joe Ritchie:
So let's just -- let's start on the backlog as a percentage of next 12-month sales is super interesting, how that's progressed over time. I guess -- my question is really, as you're kind of thinking about the 2024 framework, I know you'll give us guidance in August. How is this going to inform that framework, whether that's a like more narrow sales range? And any color you can give us around that would be helpful.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, you're right. We'll come back to you in August with the full year guidance. So we really believe that this backlog as we've shown the consistent increase over time will remain. I always use the term demand sense. And I think that with the transformation of the portfolio, we're going to have more backlog because we have a longer cycle business. So we'll look at it for the new fiscal year, the same way in which we've been looking at it most recently. So that will help us with the future year guidance.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And I guess maybe since things seemingly are still going very well. If you take a look at the organic growth you put up this quarter, there's certainly some pricing that's coming through that as well. Just maybe talk through the orders in industrial a little bit. And I'd love to hear whether there are certain areas, particularly in industrial distribution, how that's holding up today, whether there's any destocking that's happening. Just any color around that would be helpful.
Jennifer Parmentier:
So I'll start off and give you a little bit of color on industrial, and then I'll let Lee chime in on distribution. So in North America, orders to go negative, as Todd mentioned, a negative 4%. Just a reminder, real tough comp as North America last Q3 was plus 23%. So, customer demand remains strong. We have seen some destocking happening, and we believe that's very steady overall, positive outlook, and we continue to believe there will be broad-based growth. International also at minus 4%. That decrease was mainly driven by Asia-Pacific, which was down the mid-teens. China Mobile construction remaining very soft. A lot of, I think, automotive awaiting for the government stimulus. Semicon soft, but that's pretty much what drove the international negative. And EMEA, there's really no signs right now of the market weakening, strong mobile construction and automotive. still some tough comps related to COVID vaccine business last year and some supply chain challenges. But that's primarily around electronics chips and sensors. So, it looks to be good in EMEA.
Lee Banks:
Joe, I'll just add on, just a quick -- this is Lee, just a little bit about distribution. I would tell you, in general, the sentiment is still very strong, very positive, and the backlogs have stayed very consistent. There's obviously here and there some balancing of inventory, but it's truly negligible on the total backlog for distribution and it's really true for all the regions. North America, the most. Asia, I continue to see some strength in China on our distribution level. And EMEA has been fairly resilient, which if you would have asked me a quarter ago, I thought we'd have a little more headwinds, but it's been much more resilient than I planned on.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Thank you both.
Operator:
Thank you. This question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning Andrew.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
So, I love your slide that shows the company's transition to longer cycle business over time and how it's just fundamentally different. But I guess it's a question for Jenny and Lee. As you -- as the company has transitioned the portfolio, clearly, it's happening outside of aerospace as well, right? How are you adjusting the sales organization and you go to market to deal with the fact that you now have to deal with longer horizons, perhaps you do need to carry more inventory to service these kinds of customers. Maybe give us a 30,000-foot view. Thank you.
Lee Banks:
Yes. That's a great question, Andrew. So, I think I could probably spend a half hour on this conversation. But the sales organizations continue to morph around the globe. I would say at a high level, we've got very focused teams that deal in the aerospace sector, deal with the big OEMs and in a separate organization on the MRO side. And then with key market segments, if I could take electrification initiatives around automotive, we've got whole sales organizations and application engineers that deal specifically with that. So, we are constantly adapting. We've got a team right now that's dealing nothing, but hydrogen generation, even though it's early days. So, we kind of organized based on some of these secular trends and based on what we see the opportunity in the field.
Andrew Obin:
Excellent. Thank you. And I guess I want to resist asking this question, giving Jenny's background. But I think a lot of debate on HVAC. And I know that this is one of your largest businesses. Can you just give us more insight if you're willing to go that granular what's happening at the Portland? And I guess if you can, that's great. And if you can, just would love to hear your view on the U.S. construction cycle? Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
So yes, obviously, very, very fond of the Portland division and a lot of history there. It is one of our markets that is single-digit negative right now. But I would tell you this is a very strong business and historically has done very well. So we don't expect that this is going to be any time -- any long-term impact to the division. And I think they're in a good position, Andrew. .
Andrew Obin :
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. This question comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research. Your line is open.
Scott Davis:
Great. Good morning, Jenny, Lee and Todd. Congrats on another good quarter here. Great quarter. Jenny, you mentioned in your prepared remarks about a new annual incentive plan. What -- can you share a little bit of color around what you changed or what you're emphasizing in the plan?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Thanks for asking, Scott. So we used to be on a plan that was driven off of return on net assets. And it was very difficult for all of our team members from -- inside of our factories even up into our offices to understand exactly where all those numbers came from and how they fit into that calculation. And now with our annual incentive plan, the operators on the shop floor, all of the people who support the manufacturing environment, everyone can clearly see because it is based off of sales and profit and cash. So they know exactly how they fit into it at the division level. So if you can kind of imagine a production planner, thinking about the inventory they need to bring in and the scheduling of the shop floor, they are in tune to that fact that, that is cash, and that is a metric that drives their incentive plans. So that's just one example of how we've been able to take that plan and the metrics that support it and deploy it to where everyone can understand it and buy into it. First full year this year, all groups, and like I said, nearly all of our team members are on this and has been very positive thus far.
Scott Davis:
That makes sense. And just conceptually to back up a little bit. I mean, it's -- I've been studying companies for 30 years. It's very hard for capital spending to stay at levels around 2% of sales with growth above GDP and less productivity is just exceptional. And so I guess my question, which is a little bit of a tough question here. But productivity is something you measure in kind of the 3% to 4% level. I would guess it would have to be something like that to be able to sustain something down towards the 2%. How do you guys think about it, I guess, is the question?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Great question. So we think about it a little bit higher than that. We're very challenging when it comes to continuous improvement. It's why the Win Strategy has been so successful. Our lean tools and Kaizen constantly drive cost out of the business and make that productivity possible. That goes again to every member of the business being part of using those lean tools being part of Kaizen. So it's ingrained in our culture to consistently be more productive quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year. And in many cases, that's part of people's annual goals, depending on the role they're in. So we pride ourselves. We we're the hardest on ourselves. We still think we have plenty of room to improve, but we do pride ourselves on constantly looking for ways to increase efficiency and drive output.
Scott Davis:
So even above the 3% to 4% level that I mentioned, is that what you said, Jenny?
JenniferParmentier:
In some cases, targets that divisions will be there, yes.
Scott Davis:
All right, okay. Impressive. Thank you. Best of luck.
JenniferParmentier:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. This question comes from the line of Mig Dobre of Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you and good morning, everyone. I wanted to go back to backlog as well. I'm curious how much of this backlog is deliverable in the next 12 months? Do you have multiyear orders that are in here? And as you look at the backlog build here, is there a sense from you as to how much of this build is just a function of supply chains and lead times and folks securing production slots as opposed to just a pure structural change in your business model?
JenniferParmentier:
Well, Mig, I think that, obviously, we know that the supply chain has been very chaotic over the last several years. But -- that's why we wanted to talk about this consistent growth over time, because this is not just related to what's happened in the supply chain. I mean, you can look at the slide, you can think about where floored and Exotic and now Meggitt has come into play. And those are all longer cycle businesses that put orders out there for a further period of time. So when you look at this, we think that this is something that is going to be consistently out there into the future. We don't expect that we're going to see this drop very much.
Mig Dobre:
And how much of this is deliverable in the next 12 months? Is it all of it or just portions?
JenniferParmentier:
About 85% of it.
Mig Dobre:
Okay. Then my follow-up on industrial and international, and maybe this kind of relates to the backlog discussion, too. If we're looking at the last couple of quarters, we've seen order intake declines. Your organic growth has stayed positive. You're guiding for the fourth quarter, implying still positive organic growth. So there is this disconnect, I guess, between orders and organic growth. And I'm wondering how you would frame it for us to think on a go-forward basis? Thank you.
JenniferParmentier:
Well, I think the big thing there is that the backlog remains strong, right? So the orders did go negative. But as I mentioned earlier, we constantly check the health of that backlog, and we see the shippable orders to that backlog.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for next question. [Operator Instructions] This next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good morning. Just wanted to switch back maybe to the aerospace business. Some of your peers have been very, very upbeat as they're thinking about the defense or military exposure into next year. I think your orders are starting to reflect that the last couple of quarters after some tough comp's prior to that. So maybe help us understand kind of how you're thinking about that military piece within aerospace over the next kind of 12, 18 months. Any update around Meggitt's organic performance?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Sure. So first of all, you're right about military. Military OEM, we're starting to see orders return on the F-35, F-135 and the Black Hawk. So we're happy to see that. That's looking good. On military MRO, it is increasing as well with some new partnerships on stocking. And when you look at the growth compared to last year, military OEM will still be negative mid-single digits. But as Todd pointed out, it went flat to prior year for the first time in the last quarter and MRO will be high single digits. So I feel really good about that. . The second part of your question again, please?
Julian Mitchell:
It was really around the sort of the growth outlook into fiscal 2024. Aero is a particularly sort of backlog-centric business, especially the OE side. So is it realistic that we could see kind of high single-digit growth again for the segment overall next year just because you've got very good commercial growth and now sort of military helping.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yeah, absolutely. We see that as a possibility. And just as a note, last quarter, I mentioned that the outlook for this fiscal year for Meggitt was $1.9 billion at 17% and we increased that to $2 billion at 19%. So strong outlook.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah, Julian, I would just add. If you look at our organic growth in our aerospace business, nearly 15%. The Meggitt business is performing better than that. If you remember, they dipped down lower than we did in the airline COVID times, but orders are strong. And if you see the total orders that we reported, it's a plus 25%. So we feel really good going forward about aerospace.
Julian Mitchell:
That's very good to hear. Thank you. And just one quick sort of fiddly follow-up, apologies for this, but just sort of the nature of the guide. If I look at the North America industrial, it looks like you're assuming sort of margins are down a bit year-on-year in the current fourth fiscal quarter. Just wondered, if that's correct. And is that more just around the kind of seasonal you've got a sequential decline in sales and that's bringing the margins down with it, anything else going on there?
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. I mean I would just say, Julian, Q3 was fantastic. I mean, stellar far exceeded our expectations. We were forecasting a slight decline in margin for Q3. We outperformed, and we did better than that. We did increase our Q4 margin expectations. You're right though, it is slightly below prior year. It's just a combination of mix and of course, Meggitt being in there, and obviously, organic growth moderating. So we're going to try to do the best we can there, but we are forecasting just a slight dilutive year-over-year just for Q4.
Julian Mitchell:
That’s great. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. This question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. Nice quarter. I guess two questions. One, the international margins have surprised on the upside, in particular this quarter in your guidance. So can you speak to the color of what's going on there? How much of that's price cost versus some structural stuff? And then I guess my second question, back to Parker's change business model with later-cycle businesses and Meggitt and integrator backlog going into a potential recession. How does Parker manage the business differently going into recession versus the old Parker that was much shorter cycle in terms of levers that you pull, maybe you're less aggressive to take cost out quickly. I'm just trying to understand how you approach the new Parker in a pending recession. Thanks.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. Hey, Jamie, this is Todd. Thanks for the good comments there. I'll start with the international margins, and then maybe I'll hand it over to Jenny to talk about how we're going to manage through whatever the future holds for the macroeconomic trends. You're absolutely right. International margins, international volumes far surpassed our forecast. And it really was across the board. It was -- Europe is way better than feared. Asia has been extremely resilient with the start-ups and shutdowns and the back and forth with certain end markets. And Latin America has really been very solid for us. So across the board, it was a combination this specifically this quarter. Lots of volume leverage, great cost control, really integrating the Meggitt businesses that are in the international area. And it was just solid execution across the board, so easiest that. I wouldn't call out price cost as any different than any other region. They're doing exactly the same thing that we're doing everywhere across the board, it was really just really solid execution. Jenny, you want to take that?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, Todd. So Jamie, probably the biggest thing to say is we don't wait for the recession to hit. We have a playbook for this. And quite honestly, we're always planning for the next recession. So when you look inside of the wind strategy and you look at our tool box, some of the things I was talking about earlier, constantly using our lean tools and our Kaizen events to make sure that we drive out cost. Those are the things that are always ongoing that help us expand margins. When we get to the point where there are some changes in volume, we have several different levers that we pull around -- over time around the temporary workforce before we make any permanent reductions. We also make sure that we are constantly keeping an eye on the customer demand. Like right now, we've seen no significant push-outs or cancellations, but we continue to work closely with them. So we can stay ahead of that from the standpoint of bringing in inventory and staffing the shop floor. So we have a lot of levers we pull on an ongoing basis, and we performed well in the last couple of downturns. And as I mentioned before, we're very well-positioned for what's going on today and into the future.
Jamie Cook:
Thank you. Great job.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks Jamie.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next caller. The next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning, Nathan.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Just a question on the corporate G&A. I think, Jenny, you said lowest salary and other benefits. I'm here if anybody talking about labor costs going down. Can you give us a little more color around what's going on there?
Todd Leombruno:
Nathan, yes, that was me. It's really true. So lower salary costs across the board. I did mention other benefit costs, a little bit of that is pension. Other things is just a market-based benefit. So it's really a combination of really just minding our SG&A, like we always do and then some favorable headwinds from pension and other market-based benefits.
Nathan Jones:
Are you talking about salary costs going down per capita or the number of heads going down?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, it would be the number of people.
Nathan Jones:
Number of people. Okay. And then maybe if you could just give us an outlook on working capital going forward here. You obviously got growth to support, but it's probably carrying extra inventory or supply chain issues and themselves out. So just any expectations, I guess, more for going into 2024 than for just the end of the fiscal year?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, for sure. Obviously, working capital with what's been going on in supply chain and obviously dealing with the growth and making sure we've got continuity for our customers. It has been a headwind to cash flow. I think we've turned the corner on that. Our teams are really focused on reducing inventory. We are tightly managing CapEx, right? Our plan has been 2%. We've kind of stated that throughout the year. There is opportunities certainly across the Meggitt businesses as we continue to integrate those. So we feel positive about that being a tailwind for next year. And I would tell you across a number of the legacy businesses, we think there's opportunity as well. So I expect that to be a plus for us going forward, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks for taking the questions.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. The next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks, good morning, everyone and great quarter. Very strong execution, obviously. So just looking at the fourth quarter guidance. And as my math is 1Q, you're guiding for sales to be down roughly 4%, 5%. Again, if I'm wrong there, please let me know. But that's something we only normally see during the sessions, I think it was 2009 and 2020. It doesn't sound like you're planning for recession. So just curious what course need to be so conservative with that 4Q guide? And what are you hearing from customers as you go into 2024? Are you hearing more caution as we kind of come into that planning session? I mean any thoughts there would be helpful.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Nigel, this is Todd. I think your number might be a little bit high. I think if you look at it, we might be close to 2%, down from Q3. And when you look at this, Q4 really starts to kind of anniversary some of these growth periods that we had prior year. If you remember, Jenny said last year, I think North America was plus 23%. We significantly increased our guide. If you look at organic growth for the quarter. I think we were almost flat with our forecast coming into Q4, we're now roughly 4%, 4.5% organic growth. There's still some uncertainty out there. We are monitoring it closely. And like I said, we're just giving you the best look that we have right now. We feel really good about aerospace, and we're watching North America and international. You've seen the orders, the orders did turn negative, still robust. We're just giving you the best look we got at this point.
Nigel Coe:
No, I appreciate that. That's helpful. And just on the orders cuts, down 4% for both North America and International. I noticed that you've made a slight tweak to the policy with acquisitions. So do those numbers include the contribution from the Meggitt industrial businesses in both segments, or is that a change to the like-for-like? So you've also just the prior year. So we still have a core but including Meggitt, so do we have 4, 5 points in North America for Meggitt there?
Todd Leombruno:
No. Yes, we did. You're absolutely right. What we started to do this quarter, we finalized the formal structure of where those Meggitt businesses now sit within legacy Parker-Hannifin. And we felt good about that. As we've talked about the change in our portfolio and when we looked at what we were guiding going forward, we felt at this point in time, it was prudent enough to include those both in the prior and in the current year period. So that is -- those comparison rates that you're seeing, those are apples-to-apples comparison rates. And if you remember…
Nigel Coe:
Okay. That’s helpful. Yes.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. 80% of Meggitt sits in the Aerospace Systems segment, roughly 20% of that does sit in the International segment, roughly 15% of that is North America, 5% of that is in international. And I would tell you, just got to keep in mind, obviously, Aerospace segments got the biggest chunk of that. You can see the plus 25% on the orders in the aerospace segment. It is a smaller slice of Meggitt that is in the North American and International Industrial segments. And when you look at the size of those businesses, it really is a small impact to what it was historically reported.
Nigel Coe:
That’s very helpful. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was on late, so I'm just going to ask one, and I apologize if it's been addressed. But just, again, looking at kind of the backlog. It is interesting, right, the backlog of forward sales has moved up pretty nicely. Certainly, Aero plays a big role in it. But looking at even industrial backlog to forward sales by my math is sort of double what it used to be, high teens to maybe into the 30s now sort of thing. I just wonder if you could maybe address how much of that is reflective of the longer-cycle business mix shift that's going on within Industrial, versus just kind of legacy supply chain and other issues and just kind of the raw ability that gets to out the door as you deal with supply chain, both on the back end of the process through your plants and then out to the customer level. Thanks.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Thanks, Jeff. Yes, we believe that the majority of it is due to longer cycle business and the way that it's going to look going forward. So if you think about the addition of the LORD business and you think about how that's impacted the industrial segment, that's definitely longer cycle and in here along with all of the aerospace that you already mentioned. So we feel like this is the new way that the backlog is going to look and feel that it's a little bit of supply chain impact probably, but seeing this growth over time is an indicator to us that the portfolio changes are really changing the company and changing what the backlog looks like going forward.
Jeff Sprague:
And maybe then just a second part of that. So the margins obviously look very solid. Are there any residual just inefficiencies that you're dealing with in the system because of supply chain or other dynamics, or is that pretty much ironed itself out at this point? Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes, I would say, overall, we've seen some supply chain healing, but we definitely are still in the thick of it when it comes to electronic sensors and chips. And our Motion Systems group on the mobile side is impacted by that. And I would say that aerospace not only impacted by chips and sensors, but still a little bit of a bumpy road in supply chain yet in aerospace. So, we're not completely through it.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thanks for the color.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] This question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey good morning everyone.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning Jeff. How are you?
Jeff Hammond:
Hey just a follow-on on supply chain. I guess, one, if you look in the industrial business, as supply chains kind of heal, are you seeing changes in order patterns, less blanket orders and maybe how does that impact the order rate? And then also, just as the supply chain friction comes out, how do you see that playing out in the margins going ahead?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, first of all, we're not seeing any significant changes in order patterns or lead times overall, I would say. The thing I would say about that is that when we have supply chain issues in any of our businesses, it does somewhat drive inefficiency, right? We're doing whatever we can to get the material in and get it out the door. So, as the supply chain continues to heal in different parts of our business, we'll look for those opportunities to be more productive. It's one of the things that I mentioned that we were focused on in the last call and again in this call, is that some of the chaos that we went through really highlighted some areas where we could improve, and we could look to use new tools and new strategies to analyze that demand in a faster way, be more reactive, thus increasing productivity and shortening the lead-time. So, definitely still opportunities out there to become supply chain leaders in. We're working closely with our suppliers on this. And it's one of the things that we've come out and said that we're using capital for to invest in the supply chain.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just on Meggitt, do you have an accretion number for the quarter to give us? And then just on the up-synergy should we think of that as more of a pull ahead, getting things done faster or some upside to that $300 million number?
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Jeff, this is Todd. I'll take that. We're not going to give an EPS accretion number. I would tell you, we're just extremely happy with the way that's performing. It is doing exactly what we hoped it would do. When you look at the synergies, we did up the synergy numbers for FY 2023 from $60 million to $75 million. That's basically just doing things faster. So, if you look at the cost to achieve, if you go to that detail, the cost to achieve are slightly higher. That is just a result of doing things faster than we originally had planned. So we still are committed to the $300 million in the full third year of acquisition. We just are pulling those a little bit forward. .
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Thanks.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for next question. This question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Unidentified Analyst :
Hi. This is Toby [ph] on for Josh. Congrats on great -- a follow-up on the order trend question. Jenny, you mentioned some of the mega projects that have been going on. Where are you seeing this in the business? And how would you think about the potential uplift given Parker historically is focused more on components and assemblies?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. So it's -- it's difficult to directly tie it to a specific project, but we are definitely benefiting from some of these projects in the secular trends. So if you think about a lot of the new battery plants that are being built to support electrification, we're there when they're prepping the land, we're there when they're building the factory and we're there when they're putting all the equipment in the factory. So definite benefits there. Also although it's a little bit longer-term for these to be online, but we'll directly benefit from a lot of the chip and sensor production that is coming to the U.S. And today, if you look at the secular trends, obviously, aerospace, we've been talking about that a lot definitely benefiting from that secular trend in that market recovery. And beyond the battery production, we currently have a lot of content on electric vehicles. And when we transition from an internal combustion to an electric, it's 1.5 times to two times the bill of material for us. In addition, we're starting to see from an electrification standpoint, a big pull on our mobile business. So between mega CapEx projects and secular trends, again, it's the reason we feel so confident about those targets in the future, 4% to 6% organically and really why we believe we're going to grow differently with this portfolio.
Unidentified Analyst :
That's very helpful. Thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey, Chris, this is Todd. I think we've got time to maybe squeeze in one more question. Let's take one more and then we'll wrap up after that.
Operator:
Thank you. Todd. Standby for our next question. Our final question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Joe O'Dea:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. One, just on the quarter in the North America margins flat year-over-year on 12% organic growth. And so can you elaborate a little bit on mix? I also just anything else that you could be ramping up on the investment spend side where you could see opportunities there?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Let me take this. This is Todd. When you look at the Meggitt business, we're extremely happy with the way the Meggitt business is performing. If you remember, what we did was we put some of those businesses in the technologies where we thought they fit best. That would be engineered materials and a little bit into filtration. Those just happen to be some businesses, some parts of Meggitt that are lower performers compared to the total. So when you take that out, if you could look at just the legacy portion of North America, it would be very similar to what you're seeing across the rest of the company, record performance, record volumes, record incrementals and -- or strong incrementals, I should say and really sound performance across those legacy businesses. So if I had to call one thing out, it would be the main driver of why North America was flat, it would be simply the inclusion of those mega businesses in that total.
Joe O'Dea:
That's helpful. And then just in terms of -- I mean, what's kind of changed over the past three months? I think, Jenny, three months ago, you were talking about maybe seeing a little bit of pushouts. I'm sure a little bit of destock as supply chain improves here. But given the strength of the revenue in the quarter, real evidence of much in terms of pushouts. And so I'm just curious with credit conditions out there, obviously, the macro uncertainty, but sort of day-to-day, what you're seeing anything notable in terms of shifts, either more constructive or more cautious?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yeah. Really, I think it goes back to the strength of the backlog, and we've seen no notable shifts. We were cautious last quarter, and I think we obviously are very pleased with the performance. March really, really strong month for us. So we were able to ship a lot of that. And again, that backlog is still healthy and really has what has led us to the guide for Q4.
Joe O'Dea:
Appreciate it. Thank you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you.
Operator:
And thank you for your participation in today's conference. Sorry, please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Thank you, Chris. This concludes our FY 2023 Q3 webcast. If anyone needs any kind of clarification or have further questions or need to follow-up, both Jeff and Yan we'll be here for today and through tomorrow. We obviously appreciate everyone's time. We appreciate your recognition of a strong quarter, and we obviously appreciate your interest in Parker. So thank you all for joining us today. .
Operator:
That does conclude our program. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation's Fiscal 2023 Second Quarter Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Sir, please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker's fiscal year 2023 Q2 earnings release webcast. As Chris said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. And joining me today is Jenny Parmentier, our Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. Our second quarter results were released this morning and before we get started, I just want to remind everyone, we will be addressing forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 of this presentation details our disclosures our disclosure statement to issues in these areas. These forward-looking statements detailed issues that could make actual results vary from our projections. Our press release, this presentation and all reconciliations for non-GAAP measures are now available under the Investors section at parker.com and will remain available for 1 year. We're going to start the call today with Jenny addressing some focus areas for the company as she takes on the role of CEO. She will then address some highlights for the quarter, which we just released this morning, and then I'll follow up with a brief financial summary and then review the increase to our FY '23 guidance that we issued this morning. Jenny is going to wrap up with a few summary comments. And then Jenny, Lee and I will take as many of your questions as possible. I now ask you to reference Slide 3. And Jenny, I will hand it over to you.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining the call today. As Todd said, before we get into the quarter results, I'd like to remind everyone what drives Parker and give you some insight on where we'll be focusing. Moving to Slide 2. New CEO, same three drivers
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Jenny. That was great. Okay. So I'm going to begin on Slide 12 with the financial results. I can't tell you how excited the team is. This is the first full quarter that includes Meggitt in our results. It also is the first full quarter that we do not have Aircraft Wheel and Brake in our results. So the year-over-year comparisons are a little bit more complicated than usual. But you see the top line sales increased 22% versus prior year. That clearly is a record for us at $4.7 billion. Organic growth continues to be extremely healthy and was just over 10% in the quarter. That does extend our string of double-digit organic growth quarters. Although better than forecasted, the currency headwinds do continue. The currency impact to sales was unfavorable by 4% in the quarter versus prior year. And when you look at the net of the Meggitt acquisition and the Aircraft Wheel and Brake divestiture, that was a positive 16% to our sales in the quarter. Looking at adjusted segment operating margin, we exceeded our forecast, and we finished at 21.5%. And if you look at adjusted EBITDA margins, that was even stronger at 22.4%. And just as a reminder, we mentioned this last quarter, we do expect Meggitt to be just slightly dilutive to overall margins in this first sub-years as we generate those synergies that Jenny just spoke to. Looking at adjusted net income, we did $619 million or 13.2% ROS. That is an improvement of 6% versus prior year, and adjusted earnings per share were $4.76. That's a Q2 record and an increase of $0.30 or 7% compared to the prior year. Overall for Q3, we are extremely happy to have that first quarter of Meggitt in the books to see that sales increase by 22% and obviously, see the positive net income and EPS growth. So just really happy with the results of the quarter. If we jump to Slide 13. This is just going to be the visual elements of that $0.30 EPS improvement. And again, I'm really happy to say the driver of this is the additional segment operating income. We generated $180 million or 22% additional segment operating income versus the prior year. If you look at that, that added $1.8 to EPS for the quarter. Interest expense, as expected, is a headwind. It's a $0.51 headwind. That was a little bit higher than we were expecting just with the movement in rates, 100% of that entire $0.51 is related to the Meggitt transaction and what's going on in the rate environment. Other expense was $0.12 unfavorable. That was primarily driven by year-over-year changes in currency rates and income tax is a drag of $0.14, really because last year benefited from a number of discrete items that were favorable. And of course, this year, we have some of these transaction costs in the quarter that are not deductible. Everything else nets to just $0.01. And if you look at all those items, that makes up our $0.30 increase to that record $4.76 earnings per share, and we're really happy with that. If you jump to Slide 14 and just looking at the segments, once again, every segment was positive organic growth in the quarter. We exceeded our margins across the board. Every segment exceeded our expectations on margins. Orders remain positive despite some pretty tough comps in the prior year and for the total company finished at plus 3. And really, demand does remain robust across all the markets we serve. Our team members really are working hard to meet customer expectations. And the result is that record sales that we just generated in the second quarter. If you look specifically at the North American businesses, Sales are extremely strong at $2.1 billion. Organic growth in that segment is 13.5%. Adjusted operating margins did increase 50 basis points in North America. They finished at 21.8%, that is a record and just really healthy volumes and a gradually improving supply chain really helped drive performance in those North American businesses. Order rates are positive at plus 2 and that really matches our strong backlog and really that broad-based demand that is consistent across North America. So special thanks to our team members in North America for their record performance. Looking at the international businesses, sales were $1.4 billion. Organic growth there, almost 9% from prior year. And across all of our regions in the International segment, we were positive from an organic growth standpoint. Margins remained high at 21.9%. This is slightly down from prior year, really due to currency, a little bit of product mix and some China COVID-related headwinds, just specifically in China. Order rates are minus 4. They were positive last quarter, but that did have a bit of a rebound, if you remember, from the COVID-related shutdowns in China. So we're watching that very closely. Aerospace Systems, obviously, huge sales, up 84%. They did exceed $1 billion for the first time, and that obviously is clearly driven by the addition of the Meggitt businesses in our Aerospace Systems segment. Organic growth in aerospace was almost 5%. Really strong OEM and MRO commercial activity in that segment, both from sales and orders being mid-teen positive on the OEM side of it and military OEM remains negative as we expected. Operating margins were 20.6% in that segment. That is up 70 basis points from last quarter and better than we forecasted. And really, the Meggitt integration, the performance of the businesses, the synergies, like Jenny had mentioned, totally on track, and we're really happy with that. When you look at aerospace orders, they are plus 22. We talked for the last couple of quarters about that bad comp we had with the military orders we've now -- we've passed that comp. So you can see the orders are 22%. We're really happy with that. Great performance across all of the businesses this quarter. Great job, everyone. If we go to Slide 15, this is just cash flow. This is our performance on a year-to-date basis. The Meggitt transaction, we've talked about this last quarter, there's a drag to cash flow just based on some of those transactions costs. They did impact CFOA and free cash flow by roughly 2%. But even excluding that, if you look at the numbers as reported, cash flow from operations is 12.1% of sales. We did surpass $1 billion in cash flow from operations on a year-to-date basis and our free cash flow is 10% of sales. Our CapEx, as we have communicated, just slightly over 2% for the year, and free cash flow conversion is 114%. I think everyone knows us pretty well. Our cash flow is always second half weighted and we continue to forecast mid-teens cash flow from operations, and certainly, free cash flow conversion over 100% for the full year. If we jump to Slide 16, just a few comments on capital deployment. I think everyone saw that last week, our Board approved a quarterly dividend payout of $1.33 per share. That is our 291st consecutive quarterly dividend, and it is certainly in line with those targets that Jenny mentioned earlier. On leverage, we did make progress on reducing our leverage. If you look at gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, that was 3.6. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.4. Both of those metrics improved 0.2 turns from Q1. So that EBITDA is on a trailing 12-month basis. And just a reminder, that only includes Meggitt EBITDA from the date of close, so roughly 3.5 months of Meggitt EBITDA. And I'm proud to say we've now applied over $2.2 billion of cash towards that Meggitt transaction. And we're really fully committed to our deleveraging plan, and that plan remains on track. So good progress there. Okay. So moving to guidance on Slide 17. You saw we did increase our guidance this morning. We are providing this as usual, on an as reported and on an adjusted basis. And if you look at the sales range, we are increasing that. We're increasing the range from 14.5 to 16.5 or from, excuse me, 14.5 to 16.5 or 15.5% at the midpoint. More importantly, organic growth, if you look at our organic growth for the full year, we are increasing that to 7%. That is up 1% from 6% last quarter. The impact of acquisitions and divestitures. We're moving that up just slightly to 11.5%. That was 11% last quarter. And while currency is still a headwind, we expect that to be less bad. We now forecast that to be a 3% impact to sales, negative. And that's down from what we were forecasting last quarter at negative 4.5 and that is using spot rates as of December 31 like we normally do. When you look at adjusted segment operating margins for the full year, we are increasing that full year guide by 20 basis points to 22.1%, and that is at the midpoint, there's a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. And just a few additional items to note. If you look at interest expense, that is now up to $555 million. That was $510 million last quarter. That does include the changes in the interest rates that just were announced yesterday and really what we forecast them to do in the upcoming months. Corporate G&A is $204 million and other income is really an income of $18 million. Both of those numbers are virtually unchanged from our prior guide. If you look at our tax rate, just based on where we're at now, halfway through the year, we believe that will be 23.5% for the full year. And adjusted EPS is now raised to $19.45, that's a $0.50 increase from our prior guide and there is a range around that or plus or minus $0.25. Specifically, for Q3, organic growth is expected to be nearly 4%. We raised that from our prior guide and adjusted EPS is expected to be [$4.76] at the midpoint. And finally, adjustments in the forecast at a pre-tax level are listed here on this table for the remainder of the year, together with acquisition-related expenses incurred to date. So that's the details on guidance. If you go to Slide 18, this is again just a little bridge on that. You can see where we start. Our prior guide was $18.95, that strong performance in Q2. We're rolling in that $0.45 beat. We are increasing segment operating income by $0.35 for the remainder of the second half. And I just wanted to note that $0.25 of that is due to the less bad currency rates. If you remember last quarter, we knocked that down a little bit based on where rates were at the end of September. We've now moved that back a little bit, and there's a little bit more based on the organic growth increases, and that is $0.35. Interest and tax still continue to be a bit of a headwind. You can see the interest expense is a $0.20 headwind and income tax for the second half of the year is just $0.10. Add it all together, we get to $19.45 at the midpoint, and that is the changes to our guidance. So with that slide, I will ask you to focus on Slide 19. And Jenny, I will hand it back over to you for summary comments before we go to Q&A.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Todd. So we have a very promising future. We have a highly engaged team that's living up to its purpose. We'll continue to accelerate our performance with Win Strategy 3.0. We are seeing the benefit of our strategic portfolio transformation, and we will continue to be great generators and deployers of cash. And with that, Chris, I think we're ready for questions.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And one moment for our first question. Our first question will come from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Nice quarter. I guess two questions. One, can you give a little more color on the negative order growth in international and then the acceleration that you saw in orders in the Aerospace segment? That would be helpful. And then, Jenny, I guess, just a bigger question for you today. Obviously, Parker has been on a journey to move their -- through acquisitions, move their portfolio into higher value-add services, higher organic growth businesses, but it's been more really about acquisitions versus divestitures. I guess as you look at the portfolio today, do you still see Parker going down the path of looking at acquisitions? Or is there an opportunity to look at potential businesses that might not make sense for Parker over the longer term?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thanks, Jamie. I'll try to answer your second question, and then I'm going to let Lee give some color on your first question. So we always want to be the best owner of any business, right? So we have a regular process where we look at that every year. So that's something that's well in place, and we'll continue to do that. As we look to future acquisitions, again, we're going to be looking for the type of acquisition that is margin accretive. It has that resilience of a longer-cycle business and something that fits well with Parker. So obviously, short term, we need to pay down some debt for Meggitt, but that's why it's important for us to keep those relationships strong for the future.
Lee Banks:
Jamie, it's Lee. Just commenting on international orders. The biggest story here is really Asia Pacific, and it's really around China. If you think about where we've been, I mean, we've had consistent COVID lockdowns, start-stop, and then really tight monitoring fiscal restraint by the government trying to get some of the real estate markets under control, et cetera. And we saw really that really play out specifically later in the quarter, things contracting and slowing down. The other thing quite frankly, the Chinese New Year is the first time in almost three years, the Chinese New Year has really been fully open. So the amount of people traveling and gone is a lot different than it's been in the past. Having said that, we're conservatively optimistic going on the second half of the year. I'm seeing low single -- flat to low single-digit positive growth in Asia Pacific, really led by China. The -- I think it's still going to be a little troublesome in China as they get their supply chains up and running, et cetera. But I'd like to believe that with the stimulus going in and everything else that we're going to see some positive momentum there.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. And then color on aerospace, is it just all commercial, I presume?
Lee Banks:
Yes. The big thing, aerospace was really the military OEM orders lapping. So we had some big pull forwards orders and then we've lapped that on that 12, 12 basis. So you're seeing the positive order entry rate in commercial OEM and commercial MRO right now.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Next question will come from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. No, it's a pleasure not to be restricted. Yes, just more of a longer-term question. So a couple of companies are sort of talking about managing the operations, managing the backlog differently in this environment, maybe sort of accepting that lead times are going to be extended for a while, right, given that at the tail, there's still a lot of disruption in the supply chain. Are you guys thinking about sort of structurally adjusting your view on lead times? How much backlog Parker carries into the future? Just any insight would be super helpful.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrew. So the beauty of the Win Strategy and the lean tools that are inside of the Win Strategy is really all about constantly looking at optimizing our lead times. So as far as restructuring the way we look at it, I wouldn't say we're going to do that, but I would say we're going to continue to look to have those best-in-class lead times. The supply chain, I would characterize it as it's healing. We are seeing some improvement. The one thing that we will really continue to do is increase our dual sourcing and our local-for-local model that has really helped us out. It also helps us that our teams are in a decentralized structure, and they're able to work closely with the customers. So I think that those are some of the keys that help us work closer with our suppliers and really help us have a good look into the future so we can best utilize our resources and our capacity.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. And just a follow-up question on CapEx when you talk about your capital deployment priority. You sort of said CapEx target 2%. I may be wrong, but I recall sort of having conversations where you sort of thought maybe you needed on the margin to have capacity in places like Mexico, et cetera, and maybe take it off a bit to deal with what's coming in terms of the cycle. A, have you changed your view? Is that a function of Meggitt? And just generally, maybe how do you think about capacity additions, given what you're seeing over the next couple of years in terms of broader CapEx cycle trends?
Jennifer Parmentier:
No, we have not changed our position. We're doing exactly what we said we were going to do. We have a need to increase capacity in a couple of our operating groups. And obviously, we'll invest in Meggitt in the future as well. So that position remains the same.
Todd Leombruno:
Andrew, I would just add, if you look at historically over the last couple of years, our CapEx has been about 1.4% of sales. So you look at it today, it's a 2.1%. That's a pretty significant increase for us. And of course, as the sales of the company increased, that's more CapEx dollars that we've got to spend there. So we think that 2% number is right, including Meggitt, including all the supply chain initiatives that we're looking for as well. And it might be a little bit bumpy, but you're not going to see it too far about that, too.
Operator:
And one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Scott Davis of Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
I was hoping to dig into supply chain a little bit and not necessarily what's going on this quarter, but the longer-term fixes and priorities and such. And so when you think about supply chains, there's a notion of kind of localization and dual sourcing. Some of that, in some ways, feels almost inflationary. But then there's the other component of kind of streamlining supply chains and driving more productivity and it becomes kind of a cost tailwind. How do you guys think about the priorities that you're trying to -- now that kind of COVID is less of a problem around the globe? How do you think about those priorities and the puts and takes behind kind of costing you more but maybe saving you more? I'll just stop there and leave it open ended.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. No, thanks for the question, Scott. Listen, it really is all about driving efficiency in the operations. And we've had a long-term strategy of being local for local, right, being close to our customers, having our suppliers close and being able to give that good lead time and really provide a good customer experience. So we'll continue with that. And then with dual sourcing, I mean, I think some of it in the past has had to do with different things going on in whatever environment we're in. But it really is a good practice through different cycles in the business. So it's really something that we want to increase in all regions and make sure that we can be flexible and agile as demand goes up and down. That's the big key is being able to go to one source or the other and really respond to your customers' demand. So that is really the way that we look at it. I think going forward, we've learned a lot through the pandemic. That's the beauty of having a continuous improvement culture. Our teams are trying to recognize where there's opportunities. And we think we have opportunities to make sure we're more efficient and that comes through visibility and analysis of demand as well as really optimizing the schedule that goes to the production floor. So that's where we're focused.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Makes sense. And then to back up a little bit, when you have a big CEO change, oftentimes any issues or problems or complaints or gripes kind of come up or kind of rise to the top of your desk file, but what are the big internal complaints or fixes or gripes that perhaps we don't see as investors, but things that you want to tackle and fix internally that maybe perhaps wasn't really something that Parker was good at in the past?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, first of all, I just -- I'd like to say that I've had no big complaints or gripes or no surprises. Somebody asked me last week if I had any surprises. I know there's been none of those. I've been on this team for several years now and very aware of how we run the business. And what I talked about with my slide, that's where the focus is. I mean there's an opportunity to become supply chain leaders here. There's an opportunity to really make sure that we capitalize on the portfolio transformation and we continue to expand margins. So what you saw in those slides is exactly what we're going to work on.
Lee Banks:
Scott, it's Lee. I would say the only gripe is the one I have. She's working me harder than time ever.
Scott Davis:
Well, my gripe is I don't own enough of your stock, but otherwise. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
One moment, please, for our next question. And our next question will come from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a first question on the industrial businesses. So I guess several other industrial companies who are more sort of short cycle in nature, have talked about maybe some destocking early in the year in the U.S. and also Europe. Doesn't sound like you're seeing any of that yourself. But maybe just talk a little bit about how you see customer behavior or distributor behavior if it's different on that front? And what do you assume Europe does in terms of organic sales in the international business, the balance of the fiscal year?
Lee Banks:
Julian, it's Lee. I'm going to just take a step back a little bit and talk to what you're asking to, but a little bit commercial for the company. So sitting in front of me is a heat map from every country around the world and region of what the PMIs are doing, and it's a sea of red, and it's really turning a red since August or September. And the success we're having today, I think, really has to do with the portfolio changes that we've made inside the company and then really focusing on these key secular trends. So that's made a big difference as we navigate through what is forecasted around the world is a slowdown in different areas. On inventory, I would say, if I just break this down by region -- I was out with some of our large distributors here in North America. There's definitely some inventory balancing taking place. We were at a frantic pace there for probably 18 months. This things came out of COVID, there's people taking their breast balancing things out. But I would tell you their order book is still very strong, and they're still very positive about what's happening. And the other thing to test for me in some of the regions on distribution is what kind of CapEx projects they have going on with customers. And the CapEx dollars with end customers are still flowing. On the OEM side, I would say, broadly speaking, the order books are still good, especially on the mobile side and that inventory level, they try to get us true to adjusting time as they can. A little bit of disruption with microprocessors, et cetera, but really not a great deal. So that's still positive. I think I'll stop there if -- I don't know if I hit your question or not.
Julian Mitchell:
No, that's good color, Lee. And maybe just a follow-up on aerospace, give us some insights as to how the Meggitt top line is trending at present? And I guess when you think of overall Parker Aerospace, a couple of large sort of aero peers, GE and Honeywell, for example, have talked about the headwinds, whether it's cash or P&L margin from the OE ramp at the airframers. Maybe help us understand if that's a big pressure point for Parker Aero on margins or cash in the next year or two?
Jennifer Parmentier:
I'll start with your last comment first. We don't see that as a big pressure point for us. I mean we're pleased with the performance. We expect their full year sales to be $1.9 billion at about approximately 17% adjusted segment operating margin. As I mentioned earlier, we're on track to achieve the $60 million in synergies by the end of this fiscal year. We expect this to grow at or a bit faster than legacy aerospace. So we're real positive on this.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment please for our next question. Our next question will come from Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good day, everyone. Jenny, just back to where you left off on Meggitt and synergies, probably very early to talk about changing those forecasts or anything. I'm actually a little bit more curious about cost to achieve and opportunities to sort of outperform there? Given that it's not a real heavy lift on factories and the like, there's some people costs associated with getting this right. But -- is that a potential lever here as you get into this and lean the company out to do this maybe even more cost effectively than you were originally thinking?
Jennifer Parmentier:
So Jeff, you're right, it is too early to say that there's some upside to that number. We feel good about this year's synergies at $60 million. We feel good about the path to $300 million. But obviously, as I spoke about with the synergies and the operational excellence driven by the Win Strategy implementation, we expect to get this to a higher level of performance, and we'll update you along the way.
Todd Leombruno:
Jeff, this is Todd. I would just add, this is a big complex acquisitions. The biggest one we've done to date. We've talked about the integration team. It's the largest team that we've had to date. Jenny had a comment. There's over 20 teams, both Parker and Meggitt team members working together across the board. A big chunk of this is SG&A cost, right? There's clearly associated with that. So I would say in the near term here, I'm pretty confident on those costs to achieve numbers. If there is maybe some upside, I think it's too early to tell, but maybe in the out years, '25, '26 maybe there might be some upside there. But again, I think we're going to have to talk about that when we get further into the process.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then maybe a follow-up for Lee. Lee, when you were addressing the international question, you mostly talked about what's going on in China, which is understandable. But can you give us a little bit of an update on what you're seeing in Europe and how you're expecting the balance of the year to play out there?
Lee Banks:
Yes. So I think the balance of the year and kind of what's implicit in our guide is kind of flat to very low single digits negative. There's definitely saw a big slowdown in December. I mean you've got rate hikes everywhere. You've got the war going on, you've got the industrial business being affected by that. It's not -- so that's kind of how I would see it. Distribution is still hanging in. There's some inventory rebalancing taking place. So there's -- and there's some incredibly tough comps from previous year. I mean Europe was one area where we were at the benefit of some big COVID production type products that have kind of lapped and they're not coming back. So that's how I would characterize it, flat to slightly negative.
Operator:
One moment for our next question. And our next question will come from Mig Dobre of Baird.
Mircea Dobre:
Lee, maybe sticking with you here, you provided color on order trends by geography, but I'm kind of curious if you can comment by the various end markets within your industrial business, how -- if there's any variance there that we should be aware of?
Lee Banks:
Yes. I'll give you kind of what our outlook is. That's implicit in our guide. And I think the key thing to think about is really 90% of our markets are still positive as we look forward. But I kind of look at the greater than 10% positive. Commercial aerospace is still really strong. Commercial military MRO is really strong. Electric vehicle passenger cars. That's one of those secular trends where we've applied product through our portfolio change that we're participating in. And then oil and gas, especially here in the U.S., land base and even some offshore now, it's really come back with a vengeance. I would call high single-digit positives, agriculture, heavy-duty trucks, passenger cars, and telecommunications. And then mid-single digits, the neutral construction markets, distribution, forestry, marine, material handling, mining, power gen, rail, et cetera, and semiconductor is still strong. There's a lot of infrastructure build on the semiconductor side that's still taking place. The big negative markets that kind of stand out a little bit of what we would categorize as life science, and that's really comps around coded equipment and drug dispensing stuff that we were supplying and then really military OEM that's really a timing thing, I think, long term, but that would be negative for the outlook. So at a kind of high level, not breaking it down by region, that's kind of how we see it.
Mircea Dobre:
I appreciate that. Then I guess my follow-up would be, you talked about the fact that there is a divergence between the demand that you're seeing and PMIs in the industrial business, that's obviously obvious to everyone at this point. But I'm curious, as you're kind of analyzing your order intake, how much of that do you think can be attributed specifically to these higher-growth verticals rather than customers that have significant backlogs that are just now trying to increase production after normalizing the supply chain?
Lee Banks:
I would be -- that's not something I can answer here on the call. I would just tell you anecdotally, some of the customers that we're participating with today are at a different level than we participated with them before, and that's due to the portfolio changes. But I can't answer that right off the cuff.
Operator:
And one moment for the next question. The next question will come from the line of Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann :
Maybe I'll stick with you, Lee, here because as I hear you lay all that out, it sounds like the maybe even said, I mean, it was quite tilted to the positive. And yet I look at kind of what's embedded in your organic guide for the second half. And I guess it looks like the exit rate is going to be sort of close to zero on organic growth. Maybe you disagree with that, but I'm just curious, would you sort of characterize this as a little bit conservative or careful given the economic outlook? Or is this really kind of a bottoms-up kind of forecast that you have for the second half?
Todd Leombruno:
Steve, this is Todd. I'll give Lee a chance to catch his breath a bit. There is a lot of positives. We see demand broad-based across the business. Obviously, we talked about North America. We did increase the North America organic guide basically doubled it, was 2.5 -- this is for the third quarter, I'm speaking, it was 2.5. We moved that to almost 5. For the third quarter, I think I was clear on the guidance. We think it's going to be about 4 organic growth. Q4, a little bit of comps come into play there. Your rough math is pretty close. We think maybe 1% organic growth in Q4, second half really is 2.5 when you look at the total. So there are some headwinds out there. I think we're being a little cautious in what we're seeing here. And at this point, it's the best look that we got. So the international piece, I think we gave some color on that. Currency is still not as bad, but still pretty hurtful. You look at the second half, it's about a 1.5% drag for the total company, but almost a little over 4 for the International segment. So that's kind of how we rolled up the numbers and that's the way we feel right now.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay. Fair enough. Just to follow on to that, though. I mean, it would seem, Todd, that you could get that level organic just from kind of pricing rolling its way through. And any comment on that?
Todd Leombruno:
Well, we don't give a lot of color on pricing there, but you could tell it's in the organic number. So that's totally in the guide that we just laid out.
Operator:
And one moment for our next question. And our next question will come from Josh Pokrzywinski of Morgan Stanley.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
We've covered supply chain and some of this like inventory phenomenon for a while now in orders. But maybe just to put a bow on it a little bit. As your own lead times have improved, have you seen customers adjust the way they order to match that? So I'm assuming there was a point in time in which everyone was sort of scrambling a little bit more to get everything that they can and maybe it's a little bit more normalcy, that's changed. Anything that you guys have seen on that end?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. I think that's a really good question. We really haven't seen that yet, but we know that that's what happens, right? We know that when the lead times either reduced or just effect to normal, the order patterns usually follow that. We have really close relationships from the divisions to the customers. So we really work closely with the customers and looking at the backlog and making sure that it's healthy but I would also say, at the same time, we've seen a few pushouts. Nothing that I would characterize as being significant, but I do think it's a little bit of a leveling of demand as the supply chain heels, but really nothing that has drastically changed any order patterns yet.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up in terms of what lessons, I guess, the last two or three years have taught you guys. How are you thinking about different ways you would pull levers in a downturn knowing the types of scarcity and tightness that might have waived on the other side as well as what you guys are doing today even without a downturn?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Yes. I think we -- as we've talked about before, we're well positioned for changes. We have a recession playbook, right? We start pulling those levers way in advance at the first signal. So I think we do a really good job of that. Thinking about levers into the future, it really goes back to that increasing the dual sourcing and the local for local. What helps us reduce those lead times and ensure that we can give our customers the delivery that they're looking for. So that's why that's an area of focus for us going into the future.
Lee Banks:
Josh, short thing I would add to that, too, is we've got an incredibly strong operating cadence around here. I mean we -- we are looking at orders, we're looking at businesses weekly, both at the division level and then rolled up to myself and Andy Ross. And as a team, we get together once a month look at the trend, making sure we are ahead of the curve on whatever is happening. And it's no different. It's the way we've operated in the past, and that's the reason we've been able to act quickly.
Operator:
And one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
Lee, just one quick clarification on your fee of red comment from earlier. You're basically implying that the outlook that your end markets are decelerating, but not necessarily negative because it sounds like you still -- you guys found still pretty constructive on most of your end markets. Is that correct?
Lee Banks:
Yes, I think that's exactly what I'm trying to tell you. When I'm looking at this heat map, we've been in a contraction from a PMI standpoint almost around the world since August. And I think what's really holding us well are the portfolio changes that we've done inside the business, and the secular trends that are taking place that we're able to tap into inside our business today. So we're not immune from what's happening around the world. None of us are, but it's a different portfolio today when I started 32 years ago.
Joseph Ritchie:
Yes. Okay, great. That makes a lot of sense. And wanted to ask also on cash flow. Todd, obviously, I saw you guys -- you reduced your debt by about a couple of hundred million this quarter. I know that there's a lot more cash flow expected in the second half of the year. What can we anticipate from either a net leverage or debt reduction perspective as you progress through the year?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. We're really focused on that, Joe. It's a great question. I kind of mentioned it earlier, our cash flow is certainly more weighted to the second half. We just made the dividend increase. Jenny talked about the CapEx 100% of the cash flow that we generate in that second half will be dedicated to that debt pay down. And like I said, we've got a nice plan for it. We're on track, and the team is already focused on that. So we're pretty positive on that. Chris, this is Todd. I think we have time for one more question. So thank you whoever is next on the list.
Operator:
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our last question will come from Nathan Jones of Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
I've got a bit of a follow-up on the kind of orders backlog cadence as we see supply chains normalize here. Can you give us maybe a little bit more color on how elevated your backlog is relative to where it normally was, I guess, we haven't had normal for three or four years now? And as supply chains improve and lead times shortened, if you would expect to see backlog get worked down, the order cadence dropped down a bit. And we could get into a scenario where we see lower orders with that, that actually signaling any lower demand as we normalize order cadence in backlog.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Okay. Nathan, this is Jenny. Just to kind of talk a little bit about the backlog. So right now, our backlog without Meggitt is 12% over prior year. It's roughly coming in at the same dollars as last quarter. When we answered this question, it's around $8 billion. If you put Meggitt on top of that, it's another $2 billion plus, so it's a little bit over $10 billion total. So when we look at the backlog and at the orders, I think the first thing to point out is that with the portfolio changes, it's different than it used to be. So we have longer cycle business. We're going to see what I'd like to call a demand sense, a longer demand sense, and we're going to see more orders out there. There’s been a lot of noise the last couple of years because of the supply chain. But we have seen with the transformation of the portfolio that this has gradually increased. So even with supply chain normalizing in the future order patterns changing. I don't think we're going to get this down to where it used to be pre portfolio transformation. I think we're going to see a higher backlog going forward.
Nathan Jones:
And I have one on price cost. Parker has a tremendous long-term record for being mutual loan price cost at the margin level and did a tremendous job through the inflationary period we've seen over the last couple of years. Do you expect that if we get to a deflationary period to remain price cost neutral? Or do you think that you could actually hold on some of that pricing and have that be a tailwind to mine?
Lee Banks:
Well, Nathan, it's Lee. I think the first thing is a lot of our pricing isn't always price cost neutral. We're selling -- introducing a lot of new products every year. That based on the value delivered to the customers, these are margin accretive. So there's a big mix about what's happening. We've been through moderate deflationary periods in the past, and we've weathered it just fine. And when I talk about one of those operating cadences, when it comes to price cost, that's just kind of ingrained in all of us here on how we do that. And I think we'll be okay on the margin front.
Todd Leombruno:
All right, everyone. This concludes our FY '23 Q2 webcast. We do appreciate your time, your questions and of course, your interest in Parker. If anyone needs any clarifications or follow-ups on anything we cover today, Jeff Miller, our Vice President of Investor Relations; and Yan Huo, our Director of Investor Relations, will be available today. So that's all we have today. Thank you for joining, and have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker's fiscal year 2023 Q1 earnings release webcast. As Jonathan said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. And joining me today is our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; our Vice Chairman and President, Lee Banks; and our current Chief Operating Officer and Chief Executive Officer elect, Jenny Parmentier. We will be addressing forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures today. Slide 2 provides details to our disclosure statement in these areas. Actual results could vary from our projections for the items listed in these forward-looking statements and also detailed in our SEC filings. The presentation today will address non-GAAP measures, and reconciliations for those non-GAAP measures are available in this presentation and all of this is available on the Investors section at parker.com and will remain available for 1 year. Tom is going to begin the call today with a couple of highlights on the quarter and also provide an update to the Meggitt integration. I'll follow with a brief summary on the financials and review the increase to our guidance that we issued this morning. And then we'll touch on the leadership transition that we announced last week, and we'll finish the call with Q&A. So if I could ask you to reference Slide 3, and I'll hand it over to Tom to begin.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining the call today. We had an impressive first quarter -- first quarter record sales, net income, EPS and several margin records. And we closed the Meggitt acquisition, which was a big accomplishment. So if you look at this slide, the first bullet, safety is our top priority. We leverage the high-performance teams, Lean and Kaizen. We had a 17% reduction in incidents versus the prior year. If you look at that on a safety incident rates, there would be a number of incidents per 100 team members, that will put us in the top quartile versus our proxy peer group, which is fantastic results. Sales were $4.2 billion, an increase of 12% versus the prior year. Organic was very strong at a plus 14% versus the prior, and we had strength across all regions and segments. Segment operating margin was 19.8% as reported or 22.7% adjusted. We had a 70 basis point improvement versus prior year, again, excellent improvement in pretty tough conditions. As I mentioned, we completed the Meggitt acquisition integration, is well underway. We're off to a good start. I'll talk more about that in a second. So if you look at the quarter and really the last several years, is that takeaway that you see in this slide, The Win Strategy, the portfolio changes working together to deliver record performance. Go to Slide 4, some pictures from day 1. We showed you some of these in our last call, but it was a great day 1. We had Parker executives at every Meggitt site globally, 34 sites around the world. Very positive meetings, and we're off to a good start putting the 2 companies together. If you go to Slide 5, I went through this in a fair amount of detail on the September 28 investor call, but just to orientate you on the page on the left-hand side, the blue bars of the synergies, gold is cost achieved. This is by fiscal year, it shows you the walk to a $300 million worth of synergies in FY '26. That would take us to approximately 30% adjusted EBITDA margin over a period of time, so a significant improvement in profitability. On the right-hand side, is really the how, how we'll get to $300 million synergies. And again, I went through that in a lot of detail. Suffice it to say, it all sits on at the umbrella of The Win Strategy. Those 4 boxes that you see underneath there. And we've had -- we're now 7 weeks into it. I've had a chance to spend time with the teams. I feel very good about our ability to deliver these synergies. If you go to Slide 6, really, the combination of the portfolio changes that we've made so the doubling of filtration, doubling of Engineered Materials and the doubling of Aerospace over the last 8 years. If you put that together with our technology offering, which is very much aligned to the secular trends of today and the future aerospace, digital electrification and clean technologies, that combination is going to have a profound shift in our sales mix. And that's what you see illustrated on these pie charts at the bottom here. So if you look at where we were in FY '15 and you go out to FY '27 on an illustrative basis, you'd see we have 85% of the company, either industrial aftermarket or a longer cycle. That mix shift is what has allowed us to change our FY '27 target on growth to grow 4% to 6% organically over the cycle. Go to Slide 7. If I was only allowed one slide on these earnings calls, this is probably the slide I'll show up. It demonstrates that the company is distinctively different and better over quite a period of time here. So on the left is adjusted EPS, and we've updated that for the FY '23 guide, you see the $18.95 at the midpoint. And the adjusted EBITDA margins on the right-hand side, an almost 800 basis point improvement over this period of time. This slide really speaks for itself. It's hard to make metrics go at a 45-degree in a little rate, but it's a fantastic job by our people, portfolio changes and the strategy of the company. Arguably, the most improved industrial company over this period of time and a great company to invest in. And with that, I'm going to hand it over to Todd to talk more about the quarter.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Tom. I'm going to start on Slide 9. Obviously, it was an impressive quarter. Tom mentioned that. It's a really strong start to our fiscal year. And our team members just really globally continue to execute and deploy The Win Strategy, and we're very proud of the results that they were able to put up. Tom mentioned this, but sales are up 12.5% versus the prior year. That was a record of $4.2 billion. The organic growth in Q1 was extremely strong, 14%. Everyone is seeing the strengthening of the dollar, and that has created a currency headwind for us. That's about 5.5% of sales. And we're very happy that we closed Meggitt. We also close the Aircraft Wheel and Brake divestiture. All in, net of that, it added 4% to our sales for the quarter. Adjusted segment operating margins, 22.7%. That's an increase of 70 basis points from prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins came in at 23.3%. That's an even bigger increase. That's 120 basis points up from prior year. And really, this year-over-year margin, both the adjusted segment operating margins and the EBITDA margin improvements, really just demonstrate the power of Win Strategy 3.0. When you look at adjusted net income, the number is $616 million, that's a 14.5% ROS. Adjusted earnings per share is $4.74. That is a Q1 record. It's up $0.48 from prior year, and that's really despite some currency headwinds that we saw in the quarter. Both adjusted net income and earnings per share have increased 11% versus prior year. I would say I just want to make a couple of notes. There were a number of several onetime items incurred this quarter as a result of the Meggitt acquisition and the Wheel and Brake divestiture. We've included a reconciliation to all those items in the appendix. Those are mostly over but some large onetime items. And I really want to thank our global finance and accounting teams for getting all this done with just 2 weeks of ownership and closing the quarter really well. So all in, this is a really a fantastic start to our fiscal year. If you go to Slide 10, this is just a bridge on the year-over-year EPS improvement. I've already mentioned it, but the strong Q1 operating performance, obviously, the main driver there. We generated $133 million or 16% additional segment operating income Q1 versus Q1 last year. That equated to $0.80 of the earnings per share improvement. Incrementals were extremely strong, excluding acquisitions and divestitures. Total company did about 36% incrementals. When you look at everything else, the net of corporate G&A, other tax and shares outstanding, all of that nets to $0.03. And you can see the big line there, interest expense is $0.35 headwind. But 100% of that is related to the Meggitt acquisition, and we knew that, that was going to be a headwind. So all in, that's $4.34, that's 11% increase from prior year. If we go to Slide 11, just looking at the segments, you can see organic growth, again, very strong in the quarter. Orders remained positive in every segment, despite some notably tough comps versus prior year. Total company orders are up 5%, and we continue to see broad-based demand across all the end markets that we serve. Strong incrementals drove that margin expansion, that 70 basis point margin expansion versus prior year. And again, our team members just really continue to be agile in the current environment, and I'm very proud that they were able to generate record sales and operating margins. Looking at North America, the organic growth was extremely strong in North America. Nearly 18% sales came in at $2.1 billion, significant margin expansion, 200 basis points over prior year, that reached 23.74%. Volumes obviously were a big driver here. But again, we've talked over the last couple of quarters about the specific regional supply chain challenges. Our team has just been very resilient, working on our operational efficiencies, and that really is the main driver on driving this strong margin performance. Incrementals in North America, ex acquisitions, was 38%. Orders are positive at plus 3. And again, just operating in all cylinders in North America broad-based demand. Looking at the international businesses. Organic growth, again, strong there at 12% organic growth. Sales reached $1.4 billion. Organic growth was positive low to mid-teens in every region in our international businesses. And adjusted operating margins expanded 30 basis points from prior year and reached 23.1%. And again, that's all in light of some currency headwinds that obviously more heavily impact this segment. Our Asia Pacific team continues to outperform. We've talked about that. They have done a great job recovering from those shipment delays that were a result of COVID shutdowns, and we feel that, that is kind of mostly played out in Q1 here. Orders are positive in the international business to plus 6. And that clearly reflects a rebound, obviously, from China as well. Looking at Aerospace Systems. Sales are $746 million now. That's obviously up 26%. If you remember, about 82% of the Meggitt transaction does get reported in this segment. There's about $150 million of sales for Meggitt in Q1 in our Aerospace Systems segment. That makes up 19.5% of the sales increase. But if you look at organic growth, very strong there as well, 7.4%. We just continue to see a strong OEM and MRO commercial volumes continuing throughout the year. When you look at operating margins, that was impacted really by Meggitt coming in, Wheel and Brake coming out and then there were some nonrecurring program timing charges that were in respect to our OEM business. So all in, that's a onetime issue, and we don't see that continuing going forward. If you look at Aerospace orders on a 12-month rolling basis, it's plus 5. But you remember, we've talked about these multiyear military orders. That will anniversary next quarter if we adjust for that, orders were positive 29% in Aerospace. And Aerospace dollars continue to remain at extremely high levels. So all in, great performance across all of our segments. We're really happy with the way the team has outperformed there. Looking at cash, another good story here. If you look at our cash flow from operations, that was 10.8% of sales. Free cash flow was 8.8% of sales. Our CapEx did hit 2% as we have been signaling and free cash flow conversion was 96%. The transaction costs that we've talked about did impact CFOA and free cash flow pretty significantly in the quarter, it's about 450 basis points of impact. Those will minimize as we go on throughout the year, but I just wanted to call it out that, that was a drag in our Q1 cash flow. We do still expect free cash flow for the year to be in the mid-teens, so no worries on that. On Slide 13, I just want to give you a couple of updates on the capital deployment. I'm sure everyone has seen this. Last week, our Board approved a quarterly dividend payout of $1.33 per share. That is our 290th consecutive quarterly dividend payment and our record of continuing to increase the dividends paid is now at 66 years. And I want to address leverage because I know that's a number that's been on people's mind. At the end of Q1, leverage now reflects all Meggitt-related debt for the transaction. If you look at our gross debt to adjusted EBITDA at 3.8%, net debt is 3.6%. And those numbers are presented on a trailing 12-month basis, and they do not include any Meggitt pre-closed EBITDA. So that is basically base Parker adjusted EBITDA, doesn't really include any Meggitt EBITDA, and we fully expect that to improve as we go throughout the year and we start to include that Meggitt EBITDA. We are fully committed to our delevering plan, and I'm really proud to say since we made this announcement last August or really August of 2021, we've applied over $2 billion of cash towards the purchase price of Meggitt. So great work on that. Okay. Looking at guidance, you saw this. We are now including the Meggitt acquisition, and we are excluding the Wheel and Brake divestiture in our guidance. We're providing this on an as-reported and an adjustment basis. And Tom mentioned this, we're increasing the sales growth range now to a range of 11% to 14% or 12.5% at the midpoint. Organic growth forecast has been increased to 6% at the midpoint. Acquisitions net of that divestiture is going to be plus 11. And we do see currency being a larger headwind now. We are now increasing that unfavorable impact of currency of 4.5% and that is using spot rates as of September 30. When you look at adjusted segment operating margins, the range is now 21.7 to 22.1 or 21.9% at the midpoint. So that is all-in, includes Meggitt and excludes Wheel and Brake obviously, our strong Q1 performance. Just a few other items to note. On an adjusted basis, corporate G&A is expected to be $207 million. Interest expense, that's all in, including everything from Meggitt 5 10. And the other income expense line is actually going to be income of $23 million for us. Really no change to the tax rate. We expect that to be 23%. And you can see the full year as reported EPS is now $13.20 at the midpoint or $18.95 adjusted and there's a range of $0.35 on either side of that. And just looking a little bit more forward into Q2, we see adjusted EPS to be $4.46 at the midpoint for our second quarter. Lastly, all the adjustments that we've been talking about on a pretax level are listed in this table, which now includes at least the current estimate we have for the Meggitt-related intangible amortization of 220. So you can see the total is now 520. And it also includes integration costs to achieve, specifically for Meggitt of $70 million for the remainder of the year. Especially with the acquisition expense to date, we've adjusted for all of those. The majority of those are over, but we will adjust those as they come through. Okay. Last, on the guidance bridge, let me just give you some details to that. Obviously, we started the year with our initial guidance of $18.50. We had the call at the end of September, which included Meggitt and excluded Wheel and Brakes. So that was another $0.33 of additional EPS that we saw for the year that got us to the $18.83. Really our strong Q1, there's a little bit of moving pieces here because of Meggitt coming in and Wheel and Brake coming out. We calculate that to be about a $0.54 beat to our original guide. And for the remainder of the year, we've really increased the Q2 organic growth just slightly, and we've held the second half to exactly what we said in our original guidance. We have incorporated the recent currency rates and their estimated impact on the segment operating income. Right now, we feel like that's a $0.42 headwind. Really, there's nothing else notably changed to our guide for the full year. And all in, we increased our full year adjusted EPS guide to $18.95 at the midpoint. So with that, I'll hand it back to you, Tom and it's all yours.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Todd. So on Slide 16, we've got the leadership transition. As you saw last week, we announced several leadership changes. In coordination with the Board, I have been planning my transition for many years. I happen to be turning 64 years old tomorrow. It's my birthday so my early birthday present is my last earnings call. So I've been CEO for 8 years and believe this is the right time to step down from the CEO position effective end of this calendar. I've always had 8 years in my mind. I've used kind of the 2 term as President as kind of the length of tenure that I thought felt about right. And so now is the right time for me to step aside. To help facilitate a smooth transition, I plan to continue as Executive Chairman from January 1 of next year to December 31, 2023. At which time, I plan to intend to retire from Parker and the Board. It's truly been an honor to lead this great company. And if you'll indulge me, I have a few thank yous I want to mention. First, our shareholders that are listening in. Thank you for the confidence you've shown me to lead the company on your behalf. My thanks to the Parker Board of Directors for just creative advice counsel not just to me, but to our management team. To the analysts who pretty soon are going to ask me lots of questions, thank you for an open and constructive and a transparent relationship. I've known a number for many years and have always appreciated the relationship. To all the Parker team members, just incredible people who take ownership in everything that they do. It's our culture, it's our people that are the secret behind our success to the Parker leadership team. Without a doubt, the best leadership team that I've had a chance to work with. It's a very deep and talented team that our shareholders take to create comfort in. And to the office of Chief Executives of people are sitting around the table with me today, Lee, Jenny, Todd and now Andy, thank you for helping me to lead the company. Business leadership is a team sport, and I appreciate their help. And special thanks to Lee. For 19 years, we've been business partners. We talk to each other and together, we hope Parker to be a better company. I really appreciate that's Lee's going to continue on as Vice Chairman and President. Going into the new year, I think it's going to be a big help to the team. If you go to Slide 17, one of the most important responsibilities of the Board and myself is CEO succession planning. As you saw, the Board elected Jenny Parmentier is our next CEO, effective January 1. Jenny will report to the Board of Directors and be a member of the Board as well. Jenny is currently Chief Operating Officer, has been a Group President Twice and General Manager twice. She's a great person and a great leader, proven track record of success, and I have complete confidence in Jenny to lead the company in the future. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Jenny to make a few comments and finish the presentation.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Tom. I am honored and proud to be appointed the next CEO of Parker Hannifin and very excited about our future. I'm grateful to both Tom and Lee for the support and mentorship over the last several years and to our Board of Directors for their confidence in my leadership. Moving to Slide 18. Effective January 1, this is the office of the Chief Executive. Lee, Todd and I have been part of this team for some time, and we welcome Andy to the role of Chief Operating Officer. Andy will report to Lee as I do now in my current role. This is a seasoned leadership team that has been part of the company's transformation and an integral part of developing and implementing Win Strategy 3.0. This team will continue to deliver record results well into the future. Moving to Slide 19. As I look to the new calendar year and the second half of our fiscal year, my priority is to build upon the success of Parker's transformation. We are focused on integrating Meggitt into the Parker family, achieving the synergies we've committed to and delivering a record FY '23. Win Strategy 3.0 will continue to accelerate our performance across the company. and our portfolio transformation, coupled with the secular growth trends, makes us more than confident in achieving our FY '27 goal. Before we go back to Todd for Q&A, Lee has a few comments.
Lee Banks:
Okay. I know everybody is anxious to get to Q&A. We're going to get there quickly, but we've got 1 more thank you to have happen here. So Tom, on behalf of 60,000-plus teammates around the world, our management team and really from myself, thank you for 8 exceptional years as leadership and our Chief Executive Officer. When you came into that role, you had a great vision. And you boil that vision down to 3 key deliverables. You said we're going to be the safest company in the industry, and we're going to have the highest engaged team that thinks and acts like an owner. Since your time in office, we've reduced our incident rate by 73%, and we annually qualify and measure a s one of the top engaged workforces amongst our peers. You mentioned it in your slides earlier, you drove us to be a top quartile financial performer. Nearly 800 basis points increase in EBITDA margin during your time and a 2.7x increase in adjusted earnings per share. And lastly, I remember us talking about this, we're going to be great generators and great deployers of cash. Excluding today's numbers, your time and office, we've increased the enterprise value of this company by $30 billion, $48.8 billion. Total shareholder return, not including today, 180%. And dividend increase, quarterly dividend increase, a 111% increase from $0.63 to $1.33. Capital deployed during this time period, $25 billion. But I think most importantly, Tom, is you're leaving us with the company, not only in management, talent but portfolio. It's structured to have its best days ahead of it. So with that, thank you very much.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you.
Lee Banks:
And now we'll turn it over to Todd.
Thomas Williams:
Should I have retired sooner?
Todd Leombruno:
All right. Jonathan, we're going to go to Q&A. I'll let Tom catch his breath here a little bit, but I want to make one clarification. I called out an incorrect number on our Q2 EPS. I read last year's number. The number that we're looking for, for FY '23, Q2 was $4.31 at the midpoint. So with that, Jonathan, we are ready for Q&A. I'll turn it back over to you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. And our first question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Congrats, everybody. Tom, a high integrity 8 years. I think that's the greatest compliment I could probably give you. It's just was exceptional.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you. Excellent.
Scott Davis:
Jenny, what does the Board want you to do differently, if anything, maybe you can start with that?
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Scott. Well, my priority, as I said, is to build upon the success of the Parker transformation that is well underway. Our focus is -- our key focus is integrating Meggitt, bringing them into the family and achieving the synergies that we've committed to. And we're obviously, we're going to continue on our journey to top quartile performance and delivering long-term value for the shareholders. So I don't expect that we're going to see big changes in the day-to-day run of the operations and Tom and I are both committed to a very smooth transition.
Scott Davis:
Jenny, maybe just to follow-up on that. I mean how would you compare your kind of leadership style or differences or strengths and weaknesses versus Tom, if you will.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Well, I think that we have a lot of the same leadership style. And I don't know that I want to get into my weaknesses just yet, but I've had 2 good mentors here who have helped me develop some strength over time. But from a leadership perspective, very passionate about safety and our team members, just the same as Tom is. I'm very passionate about providing a customer experience that stands out amongst our competition and very focused on organic growth in the future and delivering the performance that we delivered in that recent past and even more so in the future.
Thomas Williams:
Scott, it's Tom. If I could just chime in for a second. One of the things that Lee and I did when we were changing the Win Strategy, whether it was 2.0 or recently 3.0, this was very much an inclusive process where it wasn't the 2 of us scrolled away in a corner coming up with all the answers. It was very much bottoms up. Obviously, we had to guide it, but it was very much lots of input and Jenny was part of that. And it was part of all those changes, and she's very capable of driving the ship going forward.
Scott Davis:
Okay. Well, I'll pass it on. Best of luck to all of you folks and best of luck to in your next chapter.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
And once again, I want to extend my thanks to Tom and congratulations to Jenny.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Andrew.
Jennifer Parmentier:
Thank you, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
So I'm going to ask sort of more near-term question. There are a couple of companies this earnings season that have called out sort of, I think, some clouds in the horizon in terms of short cycle and frankly, these management teams that I do respect. So how do you think -- and I appreciate you have second quarter guidance. But as you look at your order activity, as you look at lead times, as you look at the backlog, how do you see the interplay of perhaps improving lead times, perhaps improving supply chain, what does it do to the orders? And how do you think about inventory, your inventory and what's happening to the inventory in the channel?
Thomas Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom. So inventory in the channel went up a little bit, I'm referring to our distributor channel, but nothing really sequentially all that material. I think a lot of our distributors are going to probably wait to see how their fiscal year ends and how the new year begins. But maybe what you're getting in and so many words is kind of what's our thinking about the rest of the guidance period, what gives us confidence, et cetera. We were pleased that the order entry was positive against some very tough comps in the prior year. The dollar volume that we saw through the quarter was pretty consistent across all the regions and segments. We were also really happy that international saw a mid-single-digit order growth. And we saw that in EMEA and in Asia, we have mid-teens in Latin America. So we've got Aerospace in there at around plus 7 as we think about the full year. And the industrial markets are very positive. We had over 90% of our end markets were in a growth phase. So our guidance really utilizes that input, our backlog, the AI model, feedback from obviously customers and distributors. And we still see broad-based growth. However, to the point you're getting at, it's going to moderate as the fiscal year progresses. Yes, supply chain is healing, but I would say it's healing slowly, and it's not really making, I would say, that big a difference on lead times, at least not yet. So as a result, we did bump up our guidance -- I'm referring to organic sales guidance. We took our first half, if I compare to prior guide to now, was 5.5%. We bumped it up to 10.5%. We left the same was the second half, and that the second half basically around 2% organic growth. I think for us, even though we've got the backlog and we've got this broad-based strength, we're cautiously optimistic. And the reason I say that is that we'd like to see how the year-end -- I'm talking about the calendar year ends for our OEMs and how do they start with their order patterns, particularly their demand signals to us in January. Everybody's -- most of our OEMs are fiscal year calendar year type of companies. And so we want to see how they're all running hard to finish. So I think the start of the new year will be a good indicator, which is why we didn't change this. But in general, we're still very positive. And we have a lot of things going for us when we think about the secular trends, the changes we've done from acquisitions. In general, I think there's a decade of better CapEx investments for Industrial. So I feel very bullish in the long term. I think we're just being a little careful in the near term given some of the macro unsurge out there.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. No, look, our survey work is fairly consistent with what you're seeing, but obviously, you have a live view. My follow-up question is, clearly, cash flow has been one of the strongest suits at Parker for a long, long time, and I know you're laser-focused on cash conversion. With rising interest expense, right, it seems that floor financing is getting more expensive, right, just running inventories as more expensive, both for your customers and your distributors. What things can you do or what things are you doing to continue to have this very strong cash conversion going forward as both your customers and your suppliers and your distributors are probably going to be more conservative with their cash, right, just because it's more expensive to float working capital and inventory, et cetera?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Andrew, I'll take that. This is Todd. Obviously, the cash flow generation profile of the company is something that we all work extremely hard on virtually every day. We feel like we can do better on inventory. We've been vocal about that. We have -- whether the supply chain challenges globally extremely well. But we have tools in place to further reduce that inventory as we go forward. As we bring Meggitt into the company, we see opportunities there on payment terms and receivables terms. So we see activity on that as well. And the other thing that I would note is, we've talked about the ACIP conversion, right, our annual variable incentive plan. the company is now 100% on that plan. So all of our team members across the globe are all incentivized on achieving their cash flow plans for their respective business. So I think you'll see us continue that. I feel confident in telling you that we see free cash flow in the mid-teens number, and that is all part of our commitment to that delevering plan that we spoke about. So I feel really strong about our ability to deliver on that.
Andrew Obin:
Once again, Lee, thank you and Jenny, congrats -- not Lee, sorry Tom. Tom, thank you. And Jenny, congratulations. Look forward to working with you. .
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Well, I don't want to lay it on too thick. I don't want to tear anybody up here and get all choked up or anything, but Tom really, congrats and thanks. And Jenny best of luck, look forward to watching your tenure here. I wonder if we should...
Thomas Williams:
Jeff, Jeff. If you don't mind, [indiscernible] thick, it's okay.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I love my people in Cleveland, as you know. I wonder if we could talk a little bit just about price cost. Where we're at now, I think Tom said, supply chain is healing a little bit, not materially. Kind of just interested in kind of the friction that might still be going on, both on a price cost standpoint? And also just kind of the factory and efficiency side of kind of the ongoing lack of all, how much maybe pain you had to absorb in fiscal '22 and how you think that might play out in '23.
Lee Banks:
Jeff, it's Lee. I'll take a stab at that. Look, the slope of the curve price/cost has moderated, but cost is still a real issue. There are some commodities that have come down off their peaks. They're still high if you look on a historical level. There's still a lot of friction in the supply chain where even though raw commodities may have peaked, the finishing of those raw commodities before they get to us sometimes a real supply chain issues. And there's still lots of inflation up and down, you name it. You can see it just tier MRO supplies coming into our facilities to food to wages, et cetera. So we're on top of it. As you know, I mean, we measure this like crazy, not only just raw commodity costs but also total inflation costs. And we've got great visibility on how we're doing on pricing to make sure that we stay margin-neutral. I would say in the factories, again, the slope of the complexity has gotten better. But for me to tell you that labor availability is still a non-issue, I would be kidding you. It's still a little bit a deal. I think the thing that helps us through a lot of this is we just use our Parker lean system, and we go in and we just figure out how we're going to reconstruct the value stream and bring out the efficiencies and get better throughput, et cetera. So we're addressing it. I can't put a number on what the difference is going to be, but we're on top of it, and we're making -- you see it in the margins in the company. We're still doing better on a year-over-year basis.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And also maybe just kind of through this cyclical question or just macro outlook question. Clearly, it's actually impressive. The orders are positive against those comps, but I'm just wondering where the backlog stands these days? Do you have more than kind of a quarter's worth of coverage at this point? And just kind of any other like leading indicators that you're trying to stay on top of here as you kind of look around the corner economically.
Thomas Williams:
Yes, Jeff, it's Tom. The backlog went up 16% year-over-year. So we're at almost $8 billion on the legacy portion of the company, had another $2 billion plus for Meggitt so it would be a little over $10 billion of backlog. So obviously, we have well more than a quarter for the backlog. I think the thing that we want to watch, we feel very good about Aerospace's backlog. And we feel good about the industrials. My comment I was making to Andrew just want to watch the demand signals to see if anything changes once we get to the new calendar year. But the backlog obviously gives you a lot of confidence that you'll be fine.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie:
And Tom, I guess, my comment to you or you're just going to echo what everybody else has already said. I think you've been such a class act. Congratulations on your 2 tenures.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you. Thank you, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. So I guess my first question, I know we're all trying to get at this volume question really in the second half of the year. And Tom, I guess, as you kind of look at your curves, it still seems like the environment is healthy. Are you seeing kind of any deterioration across any of your different end markets? I'm just trying to really understand the expectation still for second half volumes to be negative, assuming that is still the expectation across the industrial businesses.
Thomas Williams:
Yes. So it's interesting, Joe -- it's Tom, that forecast in the second half. Because if we look at backlog and we look at the orders that we saw and what we did in the first quarter, it would tend to make you think, well, we could do more in the second half. And there's a chance we could, and we'll have to wait and see how that turns out. But given the amount of uncertainties that we see in some of the AI model data, which we've been building over time and is that [indiscernible] based on the data, we're projecting that things are going to moderate as we go into the second half. And with the price that's baked in there, the time we get somewhere between the third and the fourth quarter, we probably are going to have some unit volume declines. But when we look at the outlook for '23 on all the end markets, with the exception of aerospace, military and a little bit of weakness in HVAC primarily because of residential, everything is either neutral to strongly positive. Just as we go into the deeper end of the year, we have more end markets guiding to that kind of low single-digit neutral category, which is what makes up our forecast.
Joseph Ritchie:
Got it. That's helpful and makes sense. I guess the one follow-on. I know you just touched on the backlog increasing. You had another multi-industry company recently seen uptick in cancellation rates out of their backlog. I'm just curious whether you have you seen any of that in the orders that are canceling at this juncture or still kind of steady as you guys?
Thomas Williams:
Joe, it's Tom. Steady as she goes. We haven't seen any cancellations. That's something else that we'll be paying attention to. Most of the time, our customers want to make a change. They won't cancel per se. They'll just push out delivery dates. That's why my comments about watching demand signals from the OEMs at the beginning of next calendar year will be an important indicator right now, our OEMs are very positive about the future.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. That's great to hear. And Jenny, I look forward to spending more time with you as well. Congratulations.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
I was curious for the quarter, the orders in North America, can you give us a little split between the order patterns from distributors versus OEM?
Thomas Williams:
David, it's Tom. We don't split them out, but given it's such a big part of the company, it would have been the orders that we reported for the 312.
David Raso:
And then when it comes to the second half of the fiscal year, I appreciate all the commentary about just being prudent. I'm just curious, though, if you didn't see cancellations in your backlog -- I guess essentially, I'm asking, are you expecting some cancellations in the backlog? Just given the size of the backlog, how it looks like you're going to start at least fiscal second half with a pretty healthy backlog. I'm just curious, what are you factoring in when you have down volumes in your base case for fiscal second half?
Thomas Williams:
Yes. So it's not down by much. It's down small. But I guess, it's just the lack of the unknowns very really seeing a monetary policy with this kind of high inflation land the plane softly on the surface of the aircraft carrier. So hopefully, it happens. And maybe it happens after -- maybe if there's any issue that happens after our fiscal year later into calendar '23. But that's -- I think that's what we're being cautious of. We're very positive given that are -- the breadth of the end markets that are strong is pretty much across the board and to your point, the backlog. But they won't necessarily cancel the backlog, they just shift dates to the right if they decide that they don't need it. And that's -- we're pausing to just wait to see that indicator. So when we do our next call, it will be in February, at least have January to reflect on how did the OEMs come back in the end of their fiscal year. If they come back the same way, we'll be looking to update this. And that's the benefit of every quarter getting a chance to talk to you and give you a new insight as to what we're seeing.
David Raso:
And I apologize if I missed this earlier. But that thought process for the fiscal second half, how does that dovetail into further price increases from here?
Thomas Williams:
I think on the pricing, and as Lee had mentioned, we'll stay on top of it. A lot of the pricing that we did was we're going to anniversary in the second half. A lot of the big price increases we were catching up the cumulative effect of inflation. It's still there, and we're going to have to continue to look at that and stay on top of them. But as we compare the price increases [indiscernible] '23 [indiscernible] '22, there'll be less. Not necessarily every single part number but in aggregate, a little bit less.
David Raso:
All right. And obviously, congratulations to everybody.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann:
And Tom, happy Birthday. I cannot imagine a better present and not having to do this with us 4 times a year.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Steve. Look forward to that part of
Stephen Volkmann:
So maybe this is a Jenny question, and I apologize, it may be a little bit too early, but sort of one of the feedback things that I hear relative to other sort of premier industrials is that Parker doesn't have at least quite as much an obvious sort of recurring revenue story or SaaS-type revenue story. And secondarily, that you guys don't really do much in the way of divestitures, which have become kind of I guess, fashionable amongst these industrial companies. So I'm curious if maybe those might be a couple of areas where there could be some sort of modest change in the strategy going forward?
Thomas Williams:
Steve, it's Tom. So on the recurring revenue, you're right, maybe a Software as a Service, but if you look at our recurring revenue, with half of our industrial business going through distribution, and that's almost all aftermarket. So that's a recurring revenue stream. With Meggitt and the additions that we made there on the Aerospace side, our aftermarket piece is going to go from 36% to 41%, so that's 500 basis points of improvement that we talked about Meggitt brings. We've significantly increased the aftermarket. And some of you might remember from the Investor Day, we talked about increasing the international distribution, which we bumped up 100 basis points every year. So that's changed that mix. It's been one of the key ingredients, International's margins are now at parity with North America, which most people that have tracked us for a long time, never thought that would happen. On the divestitures, we like -- I've always used this tree analogy. We like the tree. There are some branches that we'd like to trim off, and we're working on that as we speak. And when we're ready, we'll announce those, but they're not going to be materially significant. But we'll continue to look at that. We do best on a review internally, and then we share that with the Board. So we'll do divestitures, but we -- this portfolio has been very thoughtfully built and that these technologies are very well interconnected. The fact that 2/3 of our customers buy from 4 more technologies speaks to interconnected technologies. So they like that we can come in with a strong bill of material, drive their cost ownership down and help them with their sustainability issues. And we couldn't do that if we were a one-trick pony. But you'll see us do more on the divestiture side, but it won't be materially significant.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from RW Baird.
Mircea Dobre:
Congratulations to everyone. Tom, it has been an honor working with you through all these years. So thanks again.
Thomas Williams:
I remember the first dinner we had together.
Mircea Dobre:
So do I. So do I. And I look forward to seeing you in Chicago next week. I just -- my first question on your Industrial segment, Q1 came in better than you expected, and I'm trying to understand what the sources of upside were here. Is it that there's something going on with your customers in terms of the supply chain getting better and production rates increasing for -- what was really the variance sources of your expectations?
Thomas Williams:
Well, I think in Q1, we had a lot of help pretty much across the board. I'm looking at all the inter markets, I'm not going to read all of them to you. But everything was pretty much north of 10%. So it was -- I think we had guided North America to 10. And so we're a little bit off on that. So it just turned out to be -- there's no single market that pulled it forward. Obviously, when distribution comes in, it came in at 15% to 20% range. It has, by the size of it, it automatically pulls a lot of the industrial numbers up. But it was broad-based. And everything was north of 10% that we had a few that were greater than 20. So we were pleasantly surprised and that was a good thing. We kind of guided a little bit lower than a reality.
Mircea Dobre:
Okay. But you're not really pointing to something going on in the channel in terms of stocking or something of that nature. And I kind of ask because, again, going back to that second half discussion, it seems to me like a lot of your OEM customers have significant backlogs. And if anything, they're actually trying to increase production volumes in calendar '23 which is a little bit at odds with how you have your guidance structured.
Thomas Williams:
Yes. So on your question about distribution, so that is end market-related, maybe a minor inventory. But back to the point of next year, that's a possibility of what you just described. Part of what we've factored in, especially when we put all the elements into the AI calculation, is just some risk around what does the macro economy do as interest rates go up higher and higher? And does it eventually start to temper demand. And so that's why we forecasted the way we did. If it doesn't, and maybe it doesn't start to temper within our fiscal year, and we'll update that guidance in February when we have more current data. But that was the thinking now that we're forecast, and we're not any smart than anybody else other than we just want to get a little closer to the target before we get a little more bullish on the second half.
Mircea Dobre:
All right. Fair enough. And congrats again. .
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
And Tom, you've had a hell of a run. So congratulations and Jenny, congratulations as well. So my question really is on the guidance. I think you took down industrial margins by 40 basis points in both North America and international. And normally, 1Q would be sort of the lower point of the -- for both segments. And that's not the way that this year is playing out. So just wondering, maybe Todd, if you could just address sort of like the thinking on the margin cadence here.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. No, it's a great question. Obviously, we -- specifically, we are including the Meggitt acquisition. There's -- roughly 20% of that goes into the Industrial segment. 80% of it goes into Aerospace. That does have a slight negative impact to our margin just for this first year as we get through the integration as we start to realize some of the synergies. Also a little bit on the international side. Currency has been a fairly large headwind. We expect that to get a little bit bigger. But that is essentially the only real adjustments that we made to margins going forward.
Thomas Williams:
Nigel, is a -- it's the legacy portion of the company actually goes up 20 bps on margins and the legacy portion of the company is at mid-30s incremental MROS. So it's all the factors that Todd described, which is causing the slight decline versus the prior year.
Nigel Coe:
No, that's really helpful. That makes a lot of sense. And then just switching to Meggitt. There's obviously hedges in place for U.S. dollar and euro versus British pound, which makes a ton of sense as a British company. But as a subsidiary of a U.S. company with the majority of its revenues in U.S. dollars, maybe not. So I'm just wondering, are you -- have you executed or are you competing any changes to the hedging policy for Meggitt?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Nigel, that's a great question. We're learning exactly what the Meggitt process was as we get through this. It's a little bit over a month now. We most likely will do something different. We're not rushing to exit out of anything that they have in place. But overall, we're happy with that structure, right? We called it out 70% of the sales dollars are in U.S. dollars. So we feel good about that. And we feel really confident in our macro hedging program across the legacy business, we will obviously integrate Meggitt into that process as well. Jonathan, just in -- taking the time, I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Certainly. Then our final question for today comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Tom, I'm sure you stick of this. Congrats, well done. Thanks for making a lot of us look smart. And congrats to you, Jenny, as well. We look forward to working with you.
Thomas Williams:
Maybe [indiscernible] you never get quite sick of this enough.
Jamie Cook:
I guess just to, I don't think you've commented on trends specifically that you're seeing in Europe or in China. I think I get some pushback on you guys on just concerns over European exposure? And then my second question, obviously, a lot of concerns around the macro, but I'm just wondering even if the macro is a little weaker than you think, is there enough sort of cushion as you think about perhaps supply chain ends up being better, you hold more price cost or just synergies assumptions with Meggitt that if the top line is a little weaker, there's other ways to make up so you can still maintain the guide?
Thomas Williams:
Yes. So the -- Jamie, it's Tom. The comments on China, China in Q1 was a positive approximately 10% organic and the rest of Asia, it was about the same, 10% organic. And we've kind of guide Asia very similar to how we described company moderating to or those low single digits as we go to the end of the year. We have a lot of things we can do. To your point, if the macros were to weaken, we've got backlog, we could use supply chain. I don't think supply chain can get worse, so that's probably going to be a positive side. We've done this before. We've created an organization that's more nimble and flexible and structured differently. You've seen how we've been improving each recession. At one chart, just for people that have said is my favorite one chart, that was over 2 industrial recessions of pandemic in the current supply chain issues. So this team is pretty good at being flexible and more on its toes than it's on its heels when it comes to -- and so we're already working on those things we can do to be ready in case they got worse. But we're still pretty positive as will be okay.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thanks, Jamie. This concludes our FY '23 Q1 webcast. Obviously, we do appreciate all the thanks and congratulations for Tom. He's obviously so very deserving of that. Congratulations to Jenny and Andy as well. But I also want to remind everyone of an announcement we made back in May, and that was Robin Davenport retiring, right? So this is Robin's last earnings call as well. And she's been a big voice of our investment story really for the entire tenure that Tom has been CEO. So Robin, we thank you for everything that you've done, and we wish you nothing but the best in your next chapter. A familiar face to everyone. I think everyone knows Jeff Miller, who was our Director of Investor Relations. Jeff has agreed to take the position of Vice President of Investor Relations starting in January. And he will lead our IR program going forward. So congratulations to both Robin and Jeff on those changes as well. And both Robin and Jeff will be here if you have questions or you mean kind of clarification on anything we discuss today. So thank you. Thanks, everyone, for joining us and anything we discuss today and interest in Parker. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Carmen. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Parker's fiscal year 2022 Q4 earnings release webcast. As Carmen said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. And as usual, with me today are Tom Williams, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, Vice Chairman and President. Today, our discussion will address forward projections and non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 of the presentation provides details to our disclosure statement in these areas. Actual results may differ from our projections due to uncertainties listed in these forward-looking statements and detailed in our SEC filings. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures, along with this presentation, have been made available under the Investors section at parker.com and will remain available for one year. In respect to the Meggitt transaction, while we expect this transaction to close in of fiscal year 2023, that's our current quarter, we are still down by the requirements of the UK Takeover Code in respect to discussing certain details. We do plan to hold an investor call shortly after the close to provide expanded color on the transaction once the regulations allow. For the call today, we will start with Tom discussing the fourth quarter and our fiscal year 2022 full year results. And I'll follow with a brief financial summary and review some of the assumptions around our initial fiscal 2023 guidance that we issued this morning. After that, we'll finish the call with the Q&A section for any questions you have for Tom, Lee or myself. So with that, Tom, I'll turn it over to you and ask everyone to refer to Slide number 3.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everybody, and let me welcome everybody as well to the call. Starting with Slide 3, we had a great quarter. It was absolutely a dynamite record performance, great execution by the team around the world. The first two bullets really is what drove our success. Safety has always been our top priority. We're leveraging high-performance teams. Think of that as how we are organized around the world and how we engage and involve our people. Lean is how we run the factories and kaizen is our culture of continuous improvement in how we go about making things better. We also just conducted our 2022 engagement survey. We were able to capture over 90% participation of our people around the world, asked them questions around empowerment and engagement. And we got great results. We got results that put us in the top 8% of industrial companies. And it's really these first two bullets that's driving an ownership culture within the company, driving an ownership of results and our business performance. Going down to the third bullet, sales were $4.2 billion. It's an increase of 6% versus the prior year. Organic growth was 10% versus the prior year, with excellent quarter organically. Segment operating margins was 20.9% as reported or 22.9% adjusted. So that's a 70 basis points better than prior year. This is really excellent margin expansion in the face of all the challenges that you're fully aware of, supply chain inefficiencies, inflation, and of course, the China COVID lockdowns. So just really outstanding performance in a very difficult environment. Lots of records and my thanks to the global team for all their hard work. If we move to Slide 4, talking about the full year, came in at $15.9 billion in sales, 12% organic growth versus the prior year. So a really big year for us organically. Record segment operating margin, 20.1% as reported or 22.3% adjusted. That was 120 basis points better than the prior year. It really speaks to the robustness and the agility of our business model. Operating cash flow was $2.4 billion, and that represented 15.4% of sales. So a mid-teens CFOA with growing sales, which was very commendable. And then, of course, all of you hopefully are aware we announced our FY '27 targets in the March Investor Day, and I'll just summarize it was bigger growth, bigger margins, bigger cash flow targets, and we're confident in our ability to get there in the future. So a transformed company with a promising future. What drives us is on Slide 5. It's what's been driving us in the past, President and will drive us in the future. First is living up to our purpose, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow, being great generators of cash as evidenced by the mid-teens and see if a way that you saw and great deployers of cash by our pending Meggitt acquisition. And then being a top quartile company, how we perform versus our peers. Which really goes to Slide 6, which I'd like to show to this slide, it's updated now for FY '22 numbers. And really the reason for showing its objective evidence that our company is significantly different, significantly better than it's been in the past. On the left-hand side is adjusted EPS, and on the right-hand side is adjusted EBITDA margin. And I think the pace of improvement speaks for itself. You can look at this chart, everything is moving high and to the right and it's really great progress. In particular, if you look at '21 versus '22 on EPS, going from $15.04 to $18.72. That's a gain of $3.68. It's the largest year-over-year dollar gain we've had on EPS in the history of the company. So it was a 24% improvement. On the right-hand side, almost 800 bps of EBITDA margin improvement, which is fantastic. And if you look at these two improvement trends side by side, arguably the most improved industrial company out there over this time period, and I'm hoping for the shareholders, a great company to invest in as well. Going to Slide 7. I like the picture here, we're trying to symbolize that we're coming in for a landing here on Meggitt. We're close to the end. We expect to close some time in Q1, our current quarter FY '23. The only remaining regulatory approval is the U.S. Department of Justice, which we expect to complete sometime in the quarter. And following the U.S. DOJ, it's customary to go to court in the UK to get final approval, which we expect also in the current quarter. The timing here is perfect. We're adding a transformational acquisition, doubling aerospace at the beginning of a commercial aerospace recovery and with the synergies in front of us to help us grow the top line on the bottom line. And as Todd mentioned, we'll host a call after this closes to bring it to day on Meggitt and to update our guidance. Moving to Slide 8. We're going to talk a lot in the Q&A about FY '23 sales guidance, I'm sure. But I wanted to highlight the future growth drivers that we talked about in the March Investor Day, these growth drivers remain intact. I'm just going to walk you briefly through the five columns that you see here. The first is our business system, the Win Strategy. It's about the things we can do ourselves to grow differently organically. It's about innovation, strategic positioning, distribution growth, incentive plan changes that we're making and simplify design. Go to the next column, the CapEx changes that we expect over this time period, we think this will be a very constructive time for industrials. There's going to be a need to invest in supply chain development, tool sourcing, automation, all things that are going to be very helpful and need marker products regarding channel restocking, and particularly here, I'm referring to the distribution channel, it's improving, but there's still a ways to go. And I think our partners will probably be somewhat cautious as they add inventory. But as we go out the next several years, they're clearly not at the inventory levels they'd like to be, so that's additional tailwind. The acquisitions are transformational. They've reshaped the portfolio doubling filtration, doubling Engineered Materials, doubling our aerospace business once Meggitt closes and really reshaping the portfolio to be much more longer cycle, accretive, more resilient. And then our linkage to the secular trends around the world, aerospace, digital, electrifications and clean technologies are all going to help us grow it differently. So there's targeted organic growth by FY '27, 4% to 6%. We think industrials and Parker in particular is going to be a very attractive space over the upcoming years. And with that, I'll turn it back to Todd to talk more about the quarter.
Todd Leombruno :
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'm going to start on Slide 10. This is just a year-over-year comparison of our Q4 financial results. And as Tom said, really proud of our team members for just delivering across-the-board record results against the backdrop of several continued global challenges. So as Tom mentioned, the sales was up 6%. We did hit a record sales number of $4.2 billion in the quarter. Organic growth was double-digit at 10%. I think everyone is following these currency rates, the strong dollar drove currency headwinds for us. It was minus 4% impact to sales. Our backlog remains healthy. It did increase 21% versus the prior year, and over 90% of our markets are in growth phase. So we're very happy with that. Two markets to note, commercial aerospace and North American industrial markets are two that really remain very robust. Adjusted segment operating margin was 22.9% for the quarter. That's a 70 basis point increase versus the prior year. And our adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.1%. That's a 100 basis point increase from prior year in the quarter. Both these margin numbers segment operating and EBITDA margins exited the year at the highest levels of our fiscal year. So really happy with the strong finish that the team put forth in Q4. When you move down to net income, adjusted net income was $671 million. That's a 16% ROS. It just also happens to be a 60% improvement from prior year. And again, I'll just note due to the continued strengthening of the dollar, specifically versus the pound, we did record a pretax noncash charge in the quarter for $619 million. That is related to the Meggitt deal-contingent currency contracts. And I just want to remind everyone that these contracts, we entered into these contracts really to eliminate currency exchange rate risk associated with the purchase price of the Meggitt acquisition. And the total expected U.S. dollar outlay related to the transaction included in these contracts is neutral to the transaction consideration we announced last year. So moving on to EPS. EPS is great, $5.16 on an adjusted basis. That is a record is an increase of $0.78 or $0.18 -- or 18% versus prior year, really strong results there. And I really just commend our team for the strong finish for the fiscal year. If you move to Slide 11, this is just a bridge. This details some of those elements of the $0.78 improvement. We did generate 35% incremental margins. That was really aided by our margin expansion, but more significantly, just very solid execution across every one of our businesses. Adjusted segment operating income increased by $80 million or 9% versus the same quarter last year. That accounts for over 60% or $0.47 of the EPS improvement that we had in Q4. If you net corporate G&A, interest expense and other, all that amounts to just $0.01 favorable. And we did have a few discrete tax settlements in the quarter that drove a lower income tax expense that did calculate to a $0.24 positive impact to EPS, and that was specifically in our fourth quarter. And then finally, just a slight reduction in the number of shares outstanding accounted for a favorable $0.06 to EPS. So all in, that's the 18% increase in adjusted EPS or our $5.16. If you move to Slide 12, I'll talk a little bit about the segments. Across the board, very strong performance here, 35% incremental margins. We increased segment operating income really across the board, and it's really just nice to see positive organic growth in every segment. That growth continues to be very broad-based. Orders for the total company ended up positive 3%. And that really is against a backdrop of increasingly more challenging comps. And the team really remains agile in this current supply chain and inflationary environment. We're happy with our actions. It is materializing in results in the financial statements and just really proud of all the effort that's going on here. All of this gives us performance or confidence in our performance that we will achieve our FY '27 targets that Tom mentioned, we just announced just back in March. So if I jump into the businesses in North America, very strong organic growth, 15% versus prior year. Sales reached $2.1 billion. Adjusted operating margins increased 40 basis points. Our North American team achieved 22.9% ROS. And really, we've talked about this all year. They continue to manage well through a more difficult regional supply chain environment, so just kudos to them. Incrementals in this segment was about 25%. So we're happy with that, with all the headwinds. And really, orders continue to impress at plus 10%. In the North American segment, our backlog is up 50% versus prior year, and it did grow 5% sequentially from Q3. Moving on to international. International sales, $1.4 billion, organic growth just above 5% for that segment. Organic growth in EMEA and Latin America was mid-teens positive with Asia Pacific mid-single digits negative. Obviously, that was driven by the shutdowns in China based on the COVID outbreak. But margins, if you look at margins, margins were 22.4% and still increased 30 basis points from prior year despite all that -- all those challenges and really just tremendous effort from our Asia Pacific team. We forecasted $100 million negative sales impact based on the shutdowns at the time we talked last quarter. The team really outachieved and that ended up being only a $50 million impact for the quarter, and it was really a strong month in June. So much appreciation to our super dedicated Asia Pacific team. They really went above and beyond to serve our customers. International order rates did inflect to a minus 4%, which did reflect some short-term impact from those shutdowns in China. But great overall performance by the international team. Looking at Aerospace and another strong quarter from Aerospace, this is the best organic growth and margin performance that, that segment has had all year. Sales were $676 million. Organic growth is about 8%. Commercial businesses in both the OEM and MRO markets are very, very strong. And the operational margins increased 260 basis points and finish it in impressive 24.2%. Those Q4 margins did benefit from a favorable mix, aftermarket mix and lower-than-expected NRE expenses that were really just due to some program timing. So this is really a record margin performance for that segment, and I still note that we are still below pre-COVID sales level. So we're very happy with the cost controls and the execution in our aerospace business. A note on orders. Aerospace orders are showing flat. But if you remember, we've talked about this. We did have some very significant military orders that we booked in Q2 of our FY '22 and that continues to make our 12-year comparisons difficult. If we exclude those items, aerospace orders were positive 24% for the quarter. And our aerospace dollars in respect to orders continue to main really strong. So overall, segment performance, very, very strong, and I'm proud of our teams. It's really a testament to our strategy and our purpose. So if we jump to Slide 13, cash, we had an unbelievable cash flow generation quarter in Q4. It was really stellar. We did exceed the forecast that we gave at Investor Day for both cash flow from operations and free cash flow by about $100 million for the full fiscal year. Tom mentioned this, but we generated $2.4 billion in cash flow from ops. That was 15.4% of sales. Free cash flow was $2.2 billion or 13.9% of sales. And obviously, the conversion is 168%. We really have been managing working capital very diligently throughout the year. As our year progressed, that use of working capital began to normalize across the company. If you look at this year, the change in working capital was a 1.6% of sales use of cash. If you're comparing that to prior year, last year that was a 1.0 source of cash. So we are very disciplined. Our teams are focused on generating top quartile cash flow performance. And again, we're really confident that we can achieve that FY '27 target of 16%. Just a few comments on leverage. At the end of the quarter, gross debt to EBITDA was 4.7, net debt-to-EBITDA was 4.5. That increase from last quarter is really a result of our issuance of $3.6 billion of bonds that we will use to fund the Meggitt transaction. That cash is sitting in escrow. It is on our balance sheet listed as restricted cash. If we exclude that restricted cash, our net debt to EBITDA at the end of June was 2.0x. So happy with the reduction there. The spike is just really preparing for the Meggitt transaction. And just one final note on our strong cash flow performance. We've already used $1.5 billion of cash that we've generated this year to fund the Meggitt transaction. So we are really happy with our position on that. And we're looking forward to getting to close and welcoming all the team members into Parker-Hannifin. Okay. If we go to Slide 14, guidance, this is just some detail on the guidance we released this morning. As usual, we're providing this on an as reported and an adjusted basis. And I think everyone got this, but just to be very clear, while we expect that Meggitt transaction to close in this quarter, we have not included any sales or earnings in our guidance number. However, we have given you color on the interest expense that is already committed for Q1. And I'll give you some more color on that in a second. So no sales and earnings, just the Q1 interest that we have already committed to in our Q1. So if you look at sales, reported sales growth for the year is forecasted to be flat to 3% or 1.5% positive at the midpoint. Organic growth is obviously better than that. It's expected to be 3.5% at the midpoint with a range of 2% to 5% on that. As usual, we're using currency rates as of June 30. We do forecast currency to be a headwind this year. It will be about a 2% headwind to sales versus the prior year. And as usual, if you look at the split, our sales are 48% first half, 52% in the second half. Moving on to segment operating margins. As reported, segment operating margin guidance is 20.4%. On an adjusted basis, that's 22.5%. That's at the midpoint. We have a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. And the split of segment operating income is 47% first half, 53% second half. We are forecasting incremental margins to be 30% for the full year. And just to give a little bit more clarity on a few additional items. Corporate G&A, we expect to be $204 million in FY '23. The interest related to the legacy company, so this is excluding Meggitt interest is expected to be $228 million and that Meggitt related interest that will cover Q1 only is $42 million or roughly $0.25 of EPS. We will give you an updated interest expense number once we schedule that update call that we have post close on Meggitt. Other income and expense is expected to be $14 million and as usual, any acquisition-related expenses that are associated with the Meggitt transaction, we'll continue to book those as incurred. We're not going to guide for those, we will just adjust those out as they incurred. We do expect the tax rate from continuing ops to be 23% next year, that is essentially what our continuing ops rate was this year. That does not include any discrete items that may be favorable or unfavorable. And finally, we expect full year EPS on an as-reported basis to be $16.53 at the midpoint or $18.50 adjusted. And the range on both of those figures is plus or minus $0.40. EPS has split 46% first half, 54% second half. And just a little color on Q1. We foresee Q1 adjusted EPS to be $4.13, and that's right at the midpoint. And then just a little color on those adjustments. It's really just the acquired intangible asset amortization which is now $300 million, and expected business realignment charges of $35 million. So we tried to give a lot of color there. We hope that, that was helpful. Slide 15 might give a little bit more color. This is just the bridge and really, the highlights here. It's really just continued strength and demand across the board. Obviously, our productivity initiatives and our expectations across all of our operations, increases segment operating income on a year-over-year basis. The total is $0.49 EPS have increased. And I just want to note that, that does include an estimated headwind of approximately $0.40 based on currency. So in a constant currency, obviously, that $0.49 would be $0.89, but we're incorporating that $0.40 currency headwind, so we get a $0.49 increase in segment operating margin. When you look at corporate G&A, that legacy interest and any other items, those are all forecasted to be favorable to prior, those actually help us by $0.09. And then again, that forecasted tax rate of $0.23 creates a $0.55 headwind compared to that lower tax rate that our actual rate was in FY '22. And I just would note there on that, our FY '22, we always have discretes. We don't try to forecast them because they move around so much. But our FY '22 did have a higher-than-normal amount of discrete items. So that's just a little color on there. And as I mentioned earlier, we've included that interest expense. You can see the bridge there. It's $0.25, it's $42 million. That is the Q1 amount only, and that's how we walk from our FY '22 finish to legacy $18.75 or including that $0.25 of Meggitt $18.50. So with that, that's my color on guidance. Tom, I'll hand it back to you and ask everyone to move to Slide 16.
Tom Williams :
So just to wrap things up before we open up Q&A. It was a record FY '22, probably easier to say, well, it was not a record. There were so many records to speak of. a challenging environment, just my congratulations to the entire global team for just a job well done. It's been our people, the portfolio changes and the second bullet there, the changes we made on the Win Strategy specifically on Strategy 3.0 that have driven over this period of time, 800 basis points, almost 800 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion. We're positioned to perform well in FY '23, and it's really because of the remaining items you see on this page the last three bullets. The portfolio is dramatically different, reshaped from where it was in the past with Meggitt closing in this quarter. Very few companies are going to be in a position to add a great company tied to future growth and synergies that we will be able to do. And then we're positioned for growth with the secular trends, aero, digital, clean tech and electrification. So hopefully, you feel, as you've seen in our numbers, a transformed company with a promising future. And with that, I'll turn it over to Carmen to open up to Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.
Jeff Sprague :
I'm not sure if I'm going to cross any lines with this Meggitt question, but I'll just give it a try. They reported today, as I'm sure you well know. And they put up a 17% EBITDA margin. Just thinking about the trajectory from your slides last year, right? You had at mid-19% in 2019, dipping to 14% in 2020, clearly, on the upswing now. Are you able to, in any way, address whether kind of the aggregate results there are, in fact, in line with your original deal case?
Tom Williams:
Jeff, it's Tom. Thank you for the question. Yes, we feel very good about Meggitt's results. They're growing faster actually than we had expected in faster than Parker Aerospace. They grew at 11% for the last six months. Their EBITDA held in there at 17%, as you mentioned, -- and we projected as we looked at this, as they get back to pre-COVID levels, that would put them into 19% and hopefully may be better and then with the $300 million of synergies. So there's still in a trajectory when we put the two companies together to get that back to that 30% EBITDA for Meggitt. So we feel very good about what the job that they're doing. And frankly, we can't wait to say welcome them to the team.
Jeff Sprague :
And just then on, I guess, for Todd on this interest expense. Just to be totally clear, this $0.25 or $42 million just ties to the permanent financing you did, right? So on close, obviously, there's going to be additional interest expense in the equation. It sounds like you're going to kind of fine-tune that for us when you do close. But I just want to be kind of clear on that and any other color you could provide there.
Todd Leombruno :
Yes, it's a good question. You're right. The majority of that $0.25 is related to the longer-term debt that we issued, there is a slice of some CP in there, but the vast majority of that is the bonds that we issued in peat. And you're right, we will give you a full look at the financing and the interest of layout post close, and we'll fill in the rest of the quarters for the year on that.
Jeff Sprague :
Can I just sneak one more in? Are we still looking at kind of a $70 million gap, so to speak, between GAAP accounting and IFRS accounting as it relates to R&D and other items?
Todd Leombruno :
Yes, Jeff, I think -- I don't know if we can answer that, Jeff. We're still kind of looking at that. Obviously, post close, that will be part of what we give color on.
Operator:
Our next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie :
Maybe I'll just kind of start, maybe parse out a little bit more the guidance that you just gave for 1Q, the $4.13 number, obviously, adjusted for the interest expense would have been kind of more like $4.38. Can you maybe just give us a little bit of details on the trends that you saw exiting the quarter and what the expectation is either from growth or for margins for the core business in 1Q?
Tom Williams:
Joe, it's Tom. So I'll talk about the first quarter, but I'd like to lift it up and we talk about the whole year as well because it kind of goes hand in hand with our thinking there. And maybe if I could start with we always relish and I'm being a little bit sarcastic being 1 of the first companies to talk about calendar '23, it's a difficult spot to be put in. And this forecast period is probably a little more complex than others because we have a lot of unprecedented actions that have somewhat unknown consequences, things that you're all familiar with quantitative tightening, rising interest rates, inflation, the dollar strengthening energy costs and availability in the Ukraine more. So it's a list that we really haven't faced and forecasted into. But we've got strong backlogs we've got resilient order entry. We are very pleased with the order entry that we showed for the quarter. And actually, we saw even though international was minus for the quarter, and that was really influenced by EMEA and Asia in the month of June in particular Asia, with the COVID shutdown. We saw international orders come back quite nicely in July, kind of in that mid to upper single digits. So our guidance really includes our AI model, the inputs from the divisions, customers and distributors. And we still see broad-based growth across almost all of our end markets. We've got almost all the end markets positive. If I could maybe go deeper into some of the secular areas, Aerospace, which you saw at the midpoint is at 6.5%. We've got greater than 10% for commercial OEM and military MRO high single digits for commercial MRO. But we're soft on military OEM versus some of the initial provisioning of the pull forward that happened on F-35 and that will turn around in FY '24. So Aerospace, in general, really, really positive for the whole year. That whole digital thread to the company is going to grow in that mid-single to high single digits in whatever ferns in markets like semiconductor, heavy-duty truck, which is obviously needed to transport all these digital goods lift trucks for 5G type of things, data centers, telecom. And then if I look at clean tech, electrification kind of in aggregate, and if I look at automotive, ag, mining and construction, and you just cut the sliver of electrification that cuts through those, that's all growing at greater than 10%. I'm going to get to your Q1, Joe, ain’t going anywhere. Powergen is going to grow mid-single digits. That's a combination of renewables and conventional. And oil and gas, which has been soft the last couple of years, it's going to turn positive greater than 10%. So we've got LNG, CNG and really kind of a return to investment here with, I think, the world recognizing as we journey from brown to green or not all shades the colors in between if we're going to need oil and gas for many, many years. The other part I would remind people is not only are the growth rates of these secular trends faster, the bill of material content is higher. So bill of material tends to be 1.5x to 2x traditional ICE application. So now if I get closer to your question now, the first half, second half split. First half -- I'm talking about total company, 5.5% organic, second half 2% organic. And we've got Q1 at a little higher organic growth rate, kind of, say, high single digits, 7%, give or take, for that Q1. And that's what's coming off of the current orders that we've got, the fact that we saw international get better in the month of July is what really kind of framed our thinking for Q1.
Todd Leombruno :
Joe, I'll just add a little bit of color on Q1. Obviously, you called out the additional interest expense that we try to highlight there. But tax rate is a big issue. If you look at our Q4 tax rate it had those discrete items in there. We are guiding to 23%. And then you know this is a normal thing, but we do recognize a higher amount of equity-based comp in Q1. So if you're doing a walk that other line is higher than what we normally have in Q4.
Operator:
Comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis :
You're one of the few companies we cover that's generated real cash flow this quarter, and you didn't seem to have a whole lot of supply chain problems. I mean what -- is there anything that supply chain or that you would call out as an issue?
Tom Williams:
Scott, it's Tom. First part of why we've done is maybe better than most, has been that strategy we've been utilizing for years that local-for-local. We've been focused on dual sourcing before dual sourcing became popular. And so that has clearly helped us weather this. But we're not immune. We felt that our team has done a great job, I think, scheduling their shops working with suppliers. I think the use of our lean techniques and kaizen are all things that have maybe helped us perform better than others. If I was to characterize supply chain going forward, I would -- let's take the chips out of it for a second. It has stabilized. And in our forecast period coming up FY '23, we're going to see slow gradual improvement I wouldn't characterize that we're going to be back to normal by the end of FY '23, but making a small improvement, which will be good as in this year, it was more of a struggle for the whole year. But chips is a different story. We're fortunate we're maybe not quite as chip dependent. Obviously, as our OEM customers are, but certainly, our Aerospace business, Motion Systems, in particular, those two businesses have a fair amount of electrical electronic content. And that one, we're not forecasting really any improvement. We've done an awful lot of work with our engineering team qualifying alternative suppliers, alternate materials across the board. And a lot of credit goes to them. We've been able to be very nimble and agile with expanding our available materials and supplies to satisfy demand. And we did that on ships, but chips is still a struggle. And for FY '23, we're not forecasting any help on chips. I think it will take beyond that time period to get better.
Todd Leombruno :
Yes. Tom, I would just add on capital -- working capital as a focus. We talk about it every week. Our teams are very dedicated to it and really did a fantastic job in Q4.
Scott Davis :
Clearly, I must have confidence in supply chain to be able to have working capital improved like that. But, yes, I just wanted to clarify on guidance, the 2% to 5% organic guidance, is that [audio gap] I would imagine that just based on pricing you did this year alone, you probably have a few points of price in there. But can you clarify on that, please?
Tom Williams:
Scott, you broke up about midway there, but I think you were asking about the guidance. You're probably asking volume versus price, is that your question?
Scott Davis :
That's correct, Tom. Sorry if I break up.
Tom Williams:
Okay. All right. So as you know, we don't get into segmenting price for all the commercial reasons and the downfalls and pitfalls of doing it. I just suffice it to say as we go from that 5.5 in the first half to 2 in the second half, that volume is going to mimic that. And probably when we look at a volume standpoint, Aerospace is going to be fine all year, good organic growth, organic growth actually expands in their second half versus the first half. But on the industrial side, the second half will be weaker for all the things that we see out in the world. And so somewhere in our Q3 and we will probably get to flat volume slightly negative, somewhere in that time period. So we do -- that is in our forecast period.
Operator:
Comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies.
Stephen Volkmann :
I'm wondering maybe somewhat on the same topic here. presumably despite the fact that you've really done a great job with margins and incrementals, I'm guessing there's still been some sort of productivity headwinds from these supplier kind of issues. And I'm wondering if that's true and if maybe you can ballpark what sort of headwind you've seen?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Steve, it's Tom. It's really hard to do that to give that kind of that detailed. And just you're right, it's in there. We had to overcome it. We overcame it with all the things we were doing the supply chain win strategy, pricing, et cetera, but it's really hard to quantify. It will be something that will gradually help us as we go into this year. But as I mentioned, we're projecting gradual improvement, not some big step change in the supply chain improvement.
Stephen Volkmann :
Got it. Okay. I guess what I'm trying to think about this is that if supply chain were to normalize, and it doesn't sound like that's really totally your view. But if it were, my guess is that the incremental margins would be kind of higher than what you've laid out.
Tom Williams:
Well, certainly, it would help us. I mean the incrementals in the guide are pretty respectable. North America is at around numbers 30, international is at a decremental upper 20s and aerospace in the mid-20s. Recognize that Aerospace has a unique challenge this year as we compare it to the prior, our mix shift is going to be much more commercial. We've got commercial growing 2x commercial MRO, which is what the exact inverse we had in FY '22, we have commercial MRO growing twice at commercial. And I think everybody understands the difference in margins on MRO versus that. So that's probably the inverse, we had in FY '22, we had commercial MRO growing twice of what commercial OE. And I think everybody understands the difference in margins on MRO versus OE on that. So that's probably the biggest headwind there, but still putting it mid-20s incrementals. But to your point, chips, Steve, if we were to end up having even quicker supply chain improvements, yes, that's a potential upside for us, potential upside for us.
Stephen Volkmann :
Super. And then just on the final one on supply chain is just we do hear Hydraulics as a bottleneck for a lot of the customers that we speak with still. And I don't know whether they're just using the wrong supplier or whether that's kind of an area of issue. But are there opportunities for kind of share gains here if you're able to manage this more effectively?
Tom Williams:
Again, Steve, it's Tom. Absolutely. And I would not want to pretend that we are little white in that because we have opportunities because I know our customers listen to this, and that's 1 of the top things that they talked to me about. But we do have a distinct advantage that we’re typically much better than our competitors when you look at lead times and our ability to deliver. So we always look at these times where it's kind of a struggle that we can become the go-to supplier of choice and have an opportunity. And once a customer makes that kind of commitment, it tends to be pretty sticky. They're not going to switch back after making the effort to switch to us. So again, that's a potential upside.
Operator:
Comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook :
I guess my first question, Tom, can you just talk to your assumptions within North America and Industrial organic growth first half versus second half? And then just sort of your organic growth is below your targeted range of the 4% to 6%. So just your view on the macro? I mean, like how does Europe in China come out of this? And why is North America sort of more resilient?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Jamie. So the 4% to 6% remember is over the cycle with an FY '27 target. And actually being 2% to 5% in the current climate with all the things I said at the beginning, quantitative tightening, high inflation, high interest rates, the dollars growing, I mean, I actually think it's pretty remarkable that we're putting in that kind of a number, given all the conditions we're facing. So I'll make that comment on the 4% to 6%. But specifically in North America, first half is more like 7.5%, second half goes to 1.5%. And international is first half, 2.5% versus kind of a flat second half. As far as end markets, I gave color around [secular] ones, but if I just was to bucket and I don't want to read this giant list and bore everybody to tears. But we have a couple on the greater than 10%. And I would say this is pretty indicative as I described these the world. Obviously, some of the regions have a little bit of more softness. In particular, I think maybe to get before I go to that and some of your question around maybe the difference between regions. We see EMEA have probably -- and given everything that's going on there between the war and energy challenges being the regions that in the second half is probably going to go negative. So that's in our guide. Asia Pacific, we've got not weaker than North America, obviously, it's going to be in that low-single digits throughout the whole year. But in the first half, we've got China somewhat flat, rest of Asia mid-single digits in the second half. Both China and the rest of Asia gets in that low to mid-single digits. Recognizing that Asia gets a chance to compare to the current quarter last Q4, which was really a tough quarter given all the shutdowns. So North America, more resilient on order entry. We've seen that in the last quarter or two as we rejecting that trend for the whole year. And maybe I'll just stop there and see if you have any follow-up to that.
Jamie Cook :
No. I mean that's good color. I guess my only other question is I know you don't want to comment specifically on pricing and what your assumptions are. But to what degree should we think your pricing is fairly sticky so that if we do get into a deflationary market, that potentially is a positive for you? And I guess sort of what's embedded on price cost in the 2023 guide?
Lee Banks :
Jamie, it's Lee. I would say as you look at pricing across the enterprise, it's fairly sticky. I mean there are material contracts on the OEM level that flex based on what's happening with commodities, but that's a small part of what's going on. So I'm not really concerned about price rollback inside the company.
Operator:
Comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso :
Looking at the split, it looks like despite you have higher organic in the first half than the second half, the margin improvement in the first half and second half year-over-year is about the same, right? It's about 20 bps in the first half year-over-year and 10 bps in the second half. So I'm just making sure we understand despite the slower organic growth in the second half of the year, the margin performance year-over-year will be similar. And again, is that a price cost is inherently better in calendar first half of '23 than back half?
Tom Williams:
Dave, it's Tom. Yes, that's part of it. Yes, definitely, pricing was better in the second half of '22, which will help us as we go into '23. But I think we've proven in slowing top line areas to do pretty good at margin control. So I'd look for us to continue to do that.
David Raso :
And then lastly, the comment about July. I think you said all of international orders went back to up -- I think you said mid to upper single digit. Was that a year-over-year order comment for July for all of international? And if you can give us a little more color on that would be great.
Tom Williams:
Yes. David, thank you for -- this is Tom again. Thank you for asking because it allows me to clarify. So it's just a one month, so it's a [1.12] July versus July. So it's not our typical [3.12], which is why I don't typically quote that number, but given coming off the negative [3.12], international. Of course, when you get to forecast into a new calendar year, we look for every single piece of data we can get our hands on. And that was a nice indicator for us because we saw really all three regions. Latin America held up well in Q4, but Latin America continued to do well in July. We had both EMEA and Asia turned back positive in July. It's one month. So it's not a long data trend, but it was a good indicator.
David Raso :
I think China getting better in July from June to a little bit of reopening. I don't think would surprise people, but that Europe reaccelerated in July. I'll leave it at this. Any color on that? Is that distribution? Is it OEM? I think that's a pleasant surprise that Europe reaccelerated last month.
Tom Williams:
Yes. One month, I don't have my typical segmented market type of comparison, but I would just say across both distribution and OEM.
Todd Leombruno :
David, I would just add on the margin walk throughout the year, currency does come into effect that a little bit, right? So we have a little bit more headwind in the first half and it kind of normalizes as we get to the second half just because the comps become a little bit easier on those currency changes. I'm just looking at the margin walk, it's a very similar progression Q1 to Q4 versus what we did this year as well.
Operator:
Comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe :
So it does feel like July was a bit stronger than June or certainly in the second quarter calendar of course. I mean you're very broad and you touch pretty much every single part of the industrial economy. I’d just be curious if you could give you a perspective on what's going on outside of China, obviously, which is a bit more of its own beat. But -- so maybe Tom, you might want to take that. But just in terms of the financing for Meggitt, it looks like we've got about $6 billion already financed on the balance sheet. I'm just wondering, just based on whatever cash you got on collateral with the derivative contract, et cetera, how much more is to be raised to get to that $9.9 billion?
Todd Leombruno :
Yes. Nigel, this is Todd. We are complete with the financing program for that. The one element of that is that $2 billion delayed draw term loan that we will pull once we get more clarity on the close date. So that's really the last piece -- and it's already set. We just have to wait until we get some clarity on close.
Nigel Coe :
So the $42 million in 1Q, so we can analyze that, add on the $2 billion for the play draw and that gets us in the ballpark of the current interest rates for -- interest expense for Meggitt.
Todd Leombruno :
Yes. Nigel, it's a good question. What our plan on that is to come back to you once we close, and we've got some clarity on what the rates happen to be. We will lay that all out for you in very good detail.
Operator:
Comes from Joseph O'Dea with Wells Fargo.
Joseph O'Dea :
I wanted to start on backlog. I imagine it was flat to up a little bit sequentially. I think running at something like 2x what would be normal levels relative to demand. And so as you're thinking about the upcoming year, what do you expect in terms of backlog trends? Do you think this is something that sort of normalizes relative to demand over the course of the year? Or based on what you're hearing from customers that they still want to order kind of well in advance, and just generally how you're preparing for that?
Tom Williams:
Joe, it's Tom. So is up significantly year-over-year, about 21%, backlog was $7.8 billion on June 30. But sequentially, it was pretty flat. And so I think this is kind of the peak in the backlog. I would expect it to moderate to the years slowly declining, probably not getting back to what I would call normal backlogs in the course of the whole year, but starting to moderate. And this backlog, in addition to our order entry patterns, the secular trends, the portfolio changes. These are all part of why we felt good about the 2% to 5% organic growth guide.
Joseph O'Dea :
Got it. And then related to market share gains, do you have any perspective on what you think you achieved in terms of share gains last fiscal year I imagine North America was a bigger opportunity with presumably some of the tougher supply chain dynamic in that region. So I don't know specifically if you could comment on that as well, really all of this related to the industrial businesses.
Tom Williams:
Joe, it's Tom again. So I would characterize it, yes, we did gain some share, calculating market share by region and all that is really difficult. There's -- you don't get the degree of accuracy. We track share by account. And obviously, I'm not going to quote any accounts here. But that's where you can actually get good accuracy because you know what potential is for an account and you know what your sales is into it. And you have good gauge [R&R] and repeatability of that. So we've seen where we've been able to make some improvements and not in every single account, but on some accounts. And so I would use that as an indicator that we had made some progress, but obviously, more to come.
Todd Leombruno :
Carmen, just -- I think we maybe have time for one more question.
Operator:
Excellent. One moment for our last question, please? Comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell :
Maybe just the first quick one around the free cash flow margin assumption. And you had a very strong sort of 14% margin in the year just finished. As you look at the sort of the current business ex Meggitt, how should we think about that free cash flow margin in the upcoming fiscal year? Should that sort of move up slightly with operating margins? Or do you get a big sort of hit still from working cap in the first half or something?
Todd Leombruno :
Julian, this is Todd. It's a great question. We obviously are very proud of our cash flow performance that we just finished in FY '22. We do see a little upside of that in FY '23. Obviously, the growth isn't as great as the growth period that came through. teams continue to manage working capital. So I think you'll see a slight increase in that. We'll give you a little bit more color once we get some of the Meggitt details on what it does for the whole company. Obviously, on the integration here the stub here, there will be some pressure on the total company free cash flow just as we get through the acquisition. But core company will be very similar to what we did last year with a little upside.
Julian Mitchell :
That's good to hear. And then a quick follow-up. Aerospace guidance, I think, Tom, you had said that the organic sales growth assumption for Aerospace is higher growth in the second half, I think, year-on-year than the first half. Any color around that? Is it to do with sort of easing supply chain constraints in commercial OE, lumpiness in military? And then commercial MRO, I think you said up high single, which may look low versus what some other companies have talked about for the next year or two.
Tom Williams:
Yes. So maybe I'll just give you the splits on -- not the split with the segment. So our guide assumes a mid-teens commercial OEM, a high single-digit decline in military OEM. That's again the pull forward provisioning on the F135 and the 135 engine. High single digits on commercial MRO, remember that's comparing against what we just did last year, which was a plus 36%. So that's you get this really big difficult comp on the commercial MRO, but it continues to grow. And the military MRO positive mid-teens do that math, those 4 segment gets you to 6.5. These first half, second half is just kind of the normal pattern. Aerospace tends to be stronger growth in the second half. You'll have some of the military MRO probably hitting stronger in the second half as well.
Todd Leombruno :
All right. This concludes our FY '22 Q4 earnings webcast. We really do appreciate all your support, all your interest in Parker. Like we said, we will do another one of these shortly once we get through close. Robin and Jeff are obviously here all day. If you have any further questions once again, I thank everyone for joining, and we will talk to you soon. .
Operator:
With that, ladies and gentlemen, we conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation's Fiscal Year 2022 Third Quarter Earnings Webcast and Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And now it is my pleasure to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Paul. Good morning and thanks to everyone for joining. This is our fiscal year 2022 Q3 earnings release webcast. As Paul said, this is Todd Leombruno, I am Chief Financial Officer. And as usual, with me today are Tom Williams, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. Today, we are going to discuss forward-looking projections and also, we will discuss some non-GAAP financial measures. Slide 2 in our deck details our disclosure statement on these areas. Actual results may differ from our projections due to uncertainties listed in these forward-looking statements, and those are detailed in all of our SEC filings. Reconciliations for all the non-GAAP measures, along with this presentation, have been made available under the Investors section on parker.com, and those will remain available for one year. I'd like to remind everyone before we begin that we are still bound by the requirements of the UK Takeover Code in respect to discussing certain details of the pending Meggitt transaction. As for the call today, as usual, we'll start with Tom discussing some key items for the quarter. I'll follow up with some additional color on our Q3 results and detail the increase to our guide that we issued this morning with all of our press releases. We'll finish the call with any questions you have for Tom, Lee or myself. And with that, we are now on slide 3. And Tom, I'll hand it over to you.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd. Welcome, everybody, to the call today. Appreciate your participation. It was a record quarter, record quarter for the quarter and record quarter for all time in a lot of key metrics and was delivered against very difficult circumstances that required exceptional agility and performance by our global team. I know we all lived through it, but just as a refresher of what happened in Q3, we had the Omicron spikes, which drove absenteeism. We had supply chain challenges, inflation, China COVID shutdowns and the Ukraine war. So just your basic average quarter. Obviously, I'm being sarcastic, but obviously, not ideal conditions. And what was remarkable against that backdrop, we turned in a number of all-time records, as I mentioned, and my thanks to the entire team for just great performance and resilience in these times. So a couple of comments about the quarter on dside 3. Safety is our top priority. We continue to be top quartile when you look at our performance on safety incidents versus our peers. We're doing that through our high-performance teams, which is how we run the factories and the warehouses, and a culture of Kaizen. And as I've mentioned before to shareholders, there's a very strong linkage between safety, engagement and business performance. If you look at those three metrics for us over the last seven years, they're all going in the same direction. Our sales growth was 9% versus the prior year. Organic was a positive 11%, so that was very nice. We eclipsed $4 billion in sales for the first time in the history of the company, first time over $4 billion in a quarter. That was a great milestone. We had strong demand against virtually all of our end markets. Segment operating margin was 20.3% as reported or 22.7% adjusted. That was 130 basis points better than prior year. So expanded margins, 130 basis points in the kind of conditions that I started the call with, just remarkable performance. We increased the quarterly dividend 29%. That is the largest increase in our history and clearly signals the confidence that we have about Parker for the future. We have some temporary things, which we highlighted in the future slides here, that Todd will go over about the Q4 impact related to China COVID shutdowns. The comment here I just want to make is that that's a temporary thing. How long it goes? It's hard to predict. Hope, we expect to come up to full production sometime in Q1, and that will make up this delta that we're experiencing in Q4 during the course of the rest of FY 2023. And maybe to clarify, if you're looking at our -- what we're talking about China versus what some of our peers are, we only have 60 days left in our fiscal year. So it's very hard for us to make that up in rest of the fiscal year. But we clearly feel confident that we'll make it up in FY 2023. If you look at these results, the Win Strategy, as the portfolio changes, it's the fact that the company is now much longer cycle and a better performing company. On slide 4, what drives us is really three things
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'm going to start on Slide 10. This is just a year-over-year comparison of our Q3 financial results. And Tom mentioned this, really all the credit goes to our team members, really demonstrating stellar execution to generate a number of record results in a quarter that, as Tom mentioned, had a lot of disruptions. Sales increased 9%. We did eclipse $4 billion for the first time in our history. Organic growth was 11%. Currency was a drag at two points. So that's how we get to the 9% growth. I just want to make a comment. Our backlog levels are unbelievably strong. They're up 25% from this time last year, and over 90% of our end markets are in growing state. We continue to see all regions perform extremely well. Commercial aerospace and really all of the North American markets are really the most robust, but it is broad-based across the company. Tom mentioned this, but we did expand segment operating margins 130 basis points. In the quarter, we finished at 22.7% on an adjusted basis. And I'll go through the segments in a couple of slides, but really every segment, every region contributed to this performance. The inflationary and supply chain issues, they are persistent. They remain, yet our team members are really showing their resiliency as we leverage the Win Strategy to really achieve our goal, which is top-quartile performance. When you look at EBITDA, our EBITDA margins expanded 70 basis points. We finished at 22.6 for the quarter. And net income -- adjusted net income grew by 16% in the quarter, and we finished at $630 million or 15.4% return on sales. That -- net income grew 16% versus prior year, very, very impressive. I think we've mentioned this multiple times before, but Tom was talking about Meggitt. The currency deal-contingent hedge we have on the pound to dollar requires mark-to-market accounting treatment. Due to what's going on with currency rates and really the strengthening of the dollar versus the pound, we did record a pre-tax non-cash charge in the quarter of $247 million, and that really accounts for the major difference between the as-reported and the adjusted numbers this quarter. When you look at EPS, we did $4.83. That is $0.71 greater than prior year. That's up 17% from the $4.12 we did last year, so just really solid performance across the board. And again, I can't thank our team enough. If you go to slide 11, what we did here is we just put a graph together that displays really the elements of that $0.71 or 17% increase in EPS. And again, once again, this quarter, we continue to outperform. It's really driven by volume. Of course, the margin expansion that Tom and I talked about. But really, what I like about this is it really displays our solid operating performance. The majority of the change, all of it is showing up in segment operating income, $0.75 of the $0.71 increase is all segment operating income. If you look at everything else, that's the $0.04 of a drag, but really proud that we were able to not only improve EPS, but do it at the operating line. If we jump into slide 12, this is our segment performance. Growth continues to be broad-based across every segment and every region. Demand is continues to be robust. Our orders are up 14%. The team has taken prudent actions to manage the inflationary environment. And that really has positioned us to continue to maintain margin-neutral on all of these price cost issues that are fairly well documented across the world. That and the operating execution that I talked about, really allowed us to improve margins in every segment. If you look at our incrementals, 37%, we've talked about this a couple of times, but we still are going up against pandemic-level comps. We had $25 million of discretionary savings in Q3. If you account for that, incrementals would have been 44% for the quarter, so just really solid incremental performance. It really highlights the power of the Win Strategy, and it demonstrates the transformation that we spoke about at our Investor Day, just March 8th. If you jump into the segments, North America surpassed sales of $2 billion. Organic growth was almost 15% versus prior year. And adjusted operating margins expanded by 100 basis points and reached 22.9% for the quarter. That led the company this quarter, right, which is really impressive. North America has certainly had challenges across the supply chain. It's great to see them rebound and lead the company again. Their incrementals improved in the quarter, and they're the best incrementals they generated all fiscal year. And even more importantly, order rates accelerated to 23% and backlog, of course, grew even stronger. Just very great execution, broad-based demand in the North American segment. If we move to international, sales were about $1.4 billion. Organic growth there is almost 9% from prior year. EMEA and Latin America combined was mid-teens positive, and Asia-Pacific was low single digit, but all regions are positive in the international segment. Again, here, operating margins expanded 110 basis points in international and finished really at a high level of 22.7%. Really satisfied to see the consistent performance our international teams continue to post. And we've talked about this. It's been a long-term effort for a long time. And I'm really happy that we're seeing the results out of our international segment. Order rates in international are plus 9%. If we look at aerospace, aerospace continues to rebound. Sales were $632 million. Organic growth was almost 6%. Very strong demand in our commercial markets, both OEM and MRO. And operating margins, a great points of improvement, came in at 21.9%. And I just want to remind everyone, with this great margin performance, we are still operating at below pre-COVID, the baseline, when it comes to sales. Orders in aerospace are minus 4%. But if you remember, we talked about this last quarter. There were a few large military orders in the prior period that really just kind of make a tough comp in aerospace. If you exclude those items, aerospace orders were positive 20. And again, aerospace dollars in the quarter are the largest dollar level that we've had in the last four quarters. So, it just really gives us confidence in the aerospace recovery. Really proud to be able to share these results across all of our segments. And like Tom says, it really demonstrates the power of the performance and portfolio change that a lot of all of our team members have been working on for some time. So, if we go to slide 13, cash flow generation, right? Tom talked about being great generators and great deployers of cash. Year-to-date, we've exceeded $1. 5 billion in cash flow from operations, that's 13.3% of sales. Our free cash flow is about $1.4 billion. That's almost 12% of sales and our year-to-date conversion is 117%. We continue to still manage this diligently in a growth environment, right, which is not the easiest thing to do. If you look at year-to-date, working capital is a use of cash of about 3% versus last year, it was a source of cash of about 1.2%. Q4 is our strongest quarter for cash. If you followed us for a long time, you know that. We still continue to forecast mid-teens CFOA [ph] and obviously greater than 100% conversion when it comes to cash flow conversion. Tom called out the 29% dividend increase that we announced. This really reflects the confidence we have in our ability to generate cash not just in the short-term, but in the long-term as we look to achieving those FY 2027 goals. Just a few notes on leverage. Our gross debt to EBITDA was 2.8, our net debt was 2.6. But if you remember, we have about $2.5 billion of cash in escrow to pay for the Meggitt transaction. We are classifying that as restricted cash. If you exclude that $2.5 billion, our net debt to EBITDA would be 1.8. Now let's look at the guidance. If I go to slide 14, on the guidance, we obviously announced an increase to our guidance this morning. I'm going to give it to you on an as-reported and adjusted basis. We're raising full year EPS by $0.10. Last quarter, we were projecting $18.05 per share. We are now at $18.15 per share at the midpoint. We've also narrowed the range to $0.15 on either side. Sales growth for the full year is forecasted to be about 10%. We did increase the organic guide 50 basis points from 10.5% to 11%, so 11% full year organic growth. And while currency remains a headwind in the quarter, for the full year, we think it will be about a 1% drag to the top line. Just a reminder on currency for our guide, we are using March 31 rates to calculate our estimate. If you look at the segment operating margins, full year guidance is 22.1%. I just want to call out, if you look at that versus last year's actuals, that's a 100 basis point increase in segment operating margins. So I'm glad to be able to speak to that. The corporate G&A interest and other is really expected to be $947 million on an as-reported basis and $459 million on an adjusted basis. And the adjusted – we've kind of – the adjustments we've detailed out for everybody. The acquired intangible asset amortization is $315 million. Business, realignment charges are $20 million. LORD cost to achieve is $5 million. And of course, we closed our Russian operations. That is a charge of $20 million. If you're curious, that was $13 million in the segment line and $7 million below the segment operating income line. Meggitt acquisition-related expenses that we've incurred to date is $84 million and finally, that deal contingent hedge that I mentioned on a full year basis, it's $396 million. We will continue to adjust transaction-related expenses as they are incurred, all the way up until we get to close. And a note on tax, our full year tax rate is down a little bit. We expect that to be about 21.5% for the full year. And when you do all the math, for us, that equates to an EPS – adjusted EPS guide for Q4 of $4.60. This quarter, we actually put another slide in here. It's a bridge on our guidance reconciliation. The Q3 performance that we had, we really outperformed our guide significantly. We beat our guide by $0.29. We've rolled that into our full year guide here. And based on really strong backlog and order rates, in North America specifically, we have increased our Q4 North American organic growth guide by 300 basis points versus what we thought last quarter. And that really is generating about $0.08 of segment operating income in Q4. Tom has mentioned this, but the COVID-related shutdowns in China are a near-term temporary headwind for us in Q4. Obviously, Q4 is the end of our fiscal year here. We are estimating that to impact Q4 sales by $100 million. We're using a 40% decremental on this $100 million, which is greater than what we normally operate at, simply because a number of our facilities are fully shut down. So we are confident that the facilities that are operating in China and those others in the international segment are going to be able to perform, but we're using a 40% decremental on just that $100 million of near-term headwind. That equates to a $0.24 EPS headwind going into Q4. All the other items net to a slight EPS reduction of $0.03, and that really is the walk on how we get to our new guide of $18.15. So before I turn it back over to Tom, I just want to make sure everyone saw the press release that we issued on Tuesday with Robin announcing her retirement plans after what will be almost two decades with Parker-Hannifin. And Robin has really been a driving force within the company, really helping us to transform our M&A processes, our long-range planning and, of course, serving as our voice and our biggest fan with the investment community. She has put forth a timeless effort to champion Peer W, which is our first business resource group that is focusing on developing women leaders, and that will leave a lapping imprint on Parker. So, Robin, all of us here, we couldn't be happier for you, for your husband, Scott, as you transition into the best phase, the next phase of your life, and we thank you very much.
Tom Williams:
So I'm going to just pile on, while we have Robin blushing and embarrass her even more. She's just done a great job. I've had a chance to work with her for 20 years. If I think about her deal-making skills and what she did when she led M&A, her ability to finance all these transactions, which isn't the easiest thing. And like Todd said, the Investor Relations and you've all experienced it, her ability to be the top spokesperson for the company, just outstanding. We're going to miss her. But thankfully, she's given us lots of lead time here, and she's not leaving until the end of the year. And we'll get every ounce out of her that we possibly can on these next several months. She's nodding her head in agreement. So last slide, slide 16. We have a highly engaged team. They're the people behind these results. Their ownership, their engagement that drove the -- is driving our success. You saw the EPS and the margin expansion, just phenomenal, speaks to the Win Strategy, speaks to the portfolio changes. We are a longer-cycle, more resilient company. And we've got great alignment to the secular trends that I referred to earlier. And we're going to help the world, as it moves to the clean technologies to be more sustainable. We gave you a new guide -- new feedback on where we’re headed for FY 2027, with the continued improvement across the board and really a transformed company with a bright promising future. Again, my thanks to everybody in the global team, just a fantastic quarter, fantastic year-to-date. And I'm going to turn it back to Paul to start the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question is from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Please, go ahead.
Scott Davis:
Good morning, everybody and congrats, Robin. I did not see the announcement. You will be missed. And we appreciate your help over the years. I wanted to talk a little bit about your results. I mean, it doesn't seem like supply chains hurt you guys really at all. I mean, you had 11% core growth in a zero GDP world. So was there a tangible impact to supply chains on being able to get stuff out the door in the quarter? It sure didn't seem like it could have been much.
Tom Williams :
Scott, it's Tom. Supply chain is still a challenge. I would characterize it, if I take chips, I'll come back to chips in a second, that has stabilized, but stabilized still at a fairly inefficient level. It really hasn't shown much improvement over the last several quarters nor are we forecasting that. Obviously, we're not forecasting very far out here as the rest of our fiscal year. But I think it's going to be a challenge as we go into the calendar -- rest of the calendar year. What we did see worsen was chips, and that continues to be a challenge. But I think why you've seen us perform maybe better than most has been our ability to -- we're local for local. Our supply chain has been built around that for years. And while we continue to want to localize even more, we kind of had a running start against a lot of this. We've been active on trying to increase tool sourcing. And our engineers -- we spent a fair amount of time with our engineers working to develop alternative materials that would be qualified with our customers. Our materials are either more readily available, especially in the chipset qualifying alternative chips, and some of our engineered materials products or some of the chemicals, et cetera, were difficult to get. We've been qualifying alternative materials there. So I would put saying doing all of the above and just an awful lot of elbow grease and work in the factories, in the warehouses to make this work. This is not the easiest environment, but the team did a great job with it.
Scott Davis :
Yes. Certainly seems so. The example you gave on natural gas to hydrogen was kind of interesting. And I -- it begs the question of, does the competitive landscape change as you go to the more complex hydrogen applications? I mean, my understanding is that it's -- the specs have to be pretty darn tight, and hydrogen, it's a highly volatile material. But does the competitive landscape change at all, or is it -- do you think the competitors will be there -- the similar competitors would be there?
Tom Williams:
Scott, it's Tom again. I think it does change a little bit. I think it thins out because I think there's fewer people that can do the kind of things that we can do in that area. The fact that we've already developed a lot of these cryogenic solutions puts us in a running start with that. Yes, we had to look at hydrogen birdman to make sure that there's material compatibility, which we're doing. And then our -- the advancement we've had in engineering materials and the fact that we have that technology in addition to all the other technologies, because the big -- like I mentioned, the big challenge with hydrogen is sealing a molecule because it's much smaller and prone to leaking and to a point volatile. And so we're doing investments as we speak. We just looked at that early this week. We had a clean tech review with all of our groups. And we're investing right now so we can be ready for when that does come to market.
Scott Davis :
Okay. Sounds good. I’ll pass it on. Thank you. Appreciate it. And good luck guys.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Your next question is from Mig Dobre with Baird. Please go ahead.
Mig Dobre:
All right. Thank you and Robin, all the best. Congrats. Tom, I want to go back to your comments on North America. You really kind of highlighted this geography as accelerating maybe relative to the others. And I'm wondering, what are you seeing that's differentiated or special here? And let's leave the China COVID lockdowns to the side, because that part is pretty obvious. And I'm curious, when we're looking at the sequential acceleration in order intake, are you actually seeing better volumes, or is this just a function of higher pricing given everything that's happening on the commodity side?
Tom Williams:
Well, I think in North America -- Mig, it's Tom. I think North America -- Mig, it's Tom. I think North America has gotten on top of the horse, so to speak. The supply chain challenges we had were the most pronounced in North America. They had more work to do, more work to do on logistics, on dual sourcing, on qualifying alternative materials versus the other regions. And I think you see the benefit of sometime and good work by all the teams, which was evidenced in their MROS is improving as you go through the course of the year and then having their best ROS quarter to date and leading really all the segments. So, North America clearly has gotten on top of that, made a lot of progress to that vantage point. There is good volume improvement really across the world. Obviously, I think most of that volume improvement has been in North America and in aerospace. Because aerospace with their long-term contracts were somewhat shielded from the inflation pressures there. So, they benefit from the volume as well.
Mig Dobre:
Okay. And then my follow-up, I'm curious, as you're looking at your international business, maybe Europe specifically, are you sort of seeing any change in the pace of business, customer confidence or whatever you want to call it as a result of this situation in Russia and Ukraine? How did April progress for you maybe relative to March? If you can comment on that. Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Well, on EMEA, I would say -- again, it's Tom. It's probably too soon to know for sure how the whole rush Ukraine process is going to play through. Obviously, Russia and our hearts go out to the Ukrainian people. And we've done an awful lot of our philanthropic work has been to help all the people that are involved in there. But it's small sales for us. It's immaterial from a -- of course, the human toll is huge. Sales tolls is immaterial. But our orders for -- if I look at Q3 versus Q2, we're roughly the same. They were in the low teens. I'm talking about EMEA. We do forecast sales -- sales, you break out the international piece in EMEA was 13% for Q3. We are forecasting it to soften in Q4 to 5%. So, we do anticipate some moderation there. Some of it is comp, some of it is based on what we're seeing with the orders, and that's all baked into our guide. But I think to fully understand what the second derivative is of all the Ukrainian war, I think we're going to need more time to see how that plays through.
Mig Dobre:
Understood. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning everyone. Congrats, Robin. Just a couple Meggitt-related questions, if I could. First, Todd, on the FX hedge, are you completely economically neutral at close on this? Obviously, the dollar has strengthened a lot against the pound, which impacts the ultimate out-of-pocket. If you could just clarify that. And also, any color on whether or not your funding costs to ultimately consummate the deal have moved materially here?
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Jeff, thanks for that question. On the deal contingent hedge, what we did is we locked in a pound-dollar rate. I think we did that in September time period. Obviously, a lot has changed across the world and the economic landscape since then. We still are confident that, that was the right thing to do. It has made our certain fund process as we go through the transaction certainly much clearer and much easier. Most recently and you've seen the pound to the dollar, really the pound weakened and the dollar strengthened. That has created these accounting transactions that we have to record each quarter. So from an economic value standpoint, we're working through that right now. Obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces with the valuation of the purchase price accounting of all that stuff. But we're confident that we're going to like the results that we have. As far as the financing goes, we've done a lot of work on this with our team, with our advisers on this. And really, what we found is the increasing interest rate environment is pretty much priced into the market. So just on a high level, the way we are attaching that is really based on our strong cash flows. We are just leaning towards more of a mix of serviceable debt on the transaction. So, when you look at this compared to the last large deals that we've done, the financing plan is basically using the same methodology, and they're about the same costs in total. So more to come on that, Jeff, but we feel good with where we're at in respect to financing and the pending transaction.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. And then what -- thanks for the color on the approvals and what remains. Would the UK national security be the longest pole in the tent here, or should we think about the remaining items as roughly equivalent and on the same time line?
Tom Williams:
Jeff, it's Tom. It's hard to predict that. But we've had a lot of discussions with the UK government. There's a couple of tracks there. There's the economic considerations, which are really the things we had at 2.7, the national security considerations that were in [indiscernible] in a number of discussions with them. And then you have their antitrust process as well. And I can't predict who will go first, just that the list of who's in the outbox is increasing. And this all bodes well that we're getting closer to the end. And I think you'll see them probably all kind of go roughly in about the same time frame would be my guess.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thanks for the color. Good luck with that.
Operator:
Your next question is from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning and congrats on a nice quarter. I guess, first, just a modeling question. It looks like the aerospace margins get a nice bump in the next quarter. So is there anything unusual driving that, or I'm just trying to understand what that could potentially mean for the trajectory into 2023 as aerospace starts to improve. So that's my first question. And then I guess my second question, again, very good organic growth. Tom, the market is very concerned about a slowdown, and people are using the R word. Just wondering if you could talk to how you think your portfolio could perform. In a slowdown, some of the market share gains -- are you getting market share? And could that -- and the pricing dynamics, could that help make your sales more resilient, assuming we're going into a downturn over the next six to 12 months? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Jamie, it's Tom. So I'll start with the first one, Q4 is nationally our highest margin in aerospace, typically based on shop visits and the exposure with the summer, et cetera, for aircraft and engines. And then also, it's been driven by the commercial MRO activity increasing because it's growing at the fastest rate. That happens to be our highest margins, which is why you see that performing like they do. Now coming back to -- this question happens all the time as far as, well, how will Parker do during the next recession. And I'm hoping if you go to that slide that I mentioned in my prepared remarks, it's my favorite slide that shows the margin and EPS expansion. That has two note recessions
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thanks and congratulations, Robin. Thanks for all the help you've been fantastic.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Your next question is from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
David Raso:
Hi, thank you and best of luck, Robin. A quick question on the China getting back to full production in July. Can you just give us a little more color on your confidence in that? And then also, I mean, historically, you've sort of gone through 312 pressure curves through the key markets. Obviously, the North American orders are strong. But I'm just curious, are there any areas that you're seeing the book-to-bill or the 312 pressure curves that you track that are starting to show? Those are some of the short-cycle businesses that maybe are showing a little bit of cracks. Or are we just not seeing any cracks anywhere in the North American market at this stage? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
David, it's Tom. So I'll start with the full production comment in China. If you notice, we put Q1. We didn't say July. We said Q1. And the first thing I'll say is it's an educated guess. Obviously, I'm no smarter than anybody else. And only President Sheen [ph] knows when those lockdowns are going to turn around. However, a couple of things. Just part of what we have to do when we forecast is use some pragmatic thinking a little bit of history. So we go back to when China went through it, the beginning of COVID, it had a pretty rapid rebound compared to the other regions. So some of that was factoring equation. And then just thinking about the practicality, how long can you practically keep people locked up in their apartments and their homes, and it started middle of March. And so there's a point of diminishing returns here, where people are going to have to come back, the factories are going to have to come back. And so our best guess is sometime in Q1 of FY 2022 that seen its July, could be August, it could be September, and I could be wrong. And it took we had to pick a time. The whole point I was making about that comment is that it's temporary. This is not a permanent situation in China. Then if we look at FY 2023 and if we look at China, we would make up whatever happens here in the next several months because we have another 12 months ahead of us to make up with that. Now in your comment related to end markets, we have over 90% of the end markets positive. And virtually, with the exception -- everything is positive with the exception of aerospace, military and power gen. And that's our outlook for Q4, feels the same. And the pressure curves look good, we still feel very good about what's going on. Broad-based, I would describe it.
David Raso:
And last quick clarification. The aerospace, it's rolling 12 months. I appreciate that. When does that large order that's making for the difficult comps roll-off in that calc?
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. David, I can take that one. This is Todd. We probably still have another two quarters to get through that. If you remember, we just started calling that out last quarter. This is the second quarter we've called it out. So we've got two more quarters to go.
David Raso:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning everyone. Would echo all the comments about Robin, really, really great working with you and wish you the best. First question on industrial, on the global business. So just looking through the guidance, it looks like you're kind of forecasting a mid single-digit decline. And you had a pretty high decremental, call it, high 30s decremental. I know that the comps are tough in 4Q, but is there anything else that you want to call out for the 4Q number?
Tom Williams:
Joe, so are you referring to sales or margins?
Joe Ritchie:
Yeah. So if my math is right, it looks like sales are expected to be down year-over-year, margins also down, call it, more than 100 basis points. I'm just trying to parse it out and see whether there's some conservatism in there or you guys are seeing something specific to 4Q for the international business?
Tom Williams:
Okay. So well, margins total for the company 22.2% is what the effective Q4 guide is. We did 22.2% last year, last Q4. And we see expansion in North America. North American markets expand. Aerospace margin expands. And then Asia, international margins expand -- declined a little bit, still coming in our implied guidance right around 21%, and that's because of the China shutdown. So really good margin expansion in the areas outside of the China shutdown. And then on the top line, Todd preferred to this that we bumped up North America organic guide by 300 bps of going prior guide to new guide, bumped up aerospace by 50. And of course, we took down international. So maybe to calibrate people, the effect of the China shutdowns, we would throw -- we would increase total guide from Q4 by 250 bps, if that was running normal. And the total international will go up 650 bps. So it's a pretty big impact, which is weighing down international.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. And then also, I kind of wanted to ask about aero also, more from a near-term perspective. I recognize you guys are calling for some good growth year-over-year on the margins as well. Sequentially, though, it doesn't really seem like the margins are expected to pick up in the fourth quarter just based on the full year guide. Is there anything like you would call out from a mix standpoint in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, or still seeing good mix coming through in 4Q as well?
Todd Leombruno:
Hey Joe, this is Todd. I could take that one. What we've got in the fourth quarter guide, you're talking specifically for aerospace, right?
Joe Ritchie:
Yes. That's right.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. We actually are improving margins from Q3 to Q4. We did 21.9% in Q3, and we're right at 22.2% for Q4. So there is expansion there.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. All right, great. Thanks guys. I’ll get back in queue.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question is from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. Thanks for taking the question. And congrats, Robin. For me, I'm very impressed with the incremental margin performance accelerating here. And I'm wondering just kind of directionally how we should be thinking about that for 2023. Is there some reason that it would revert to a long-term average, or do we get to enjoy a longer period of a little bit higher incrementals?
Tom Williams:
Steve, it's Tom. I'm going to probably not make any specific comments about 2023. I think you can appreciate there's a lot of things that changed. We're one of the first companies to get -- has the good fortune to talk about 2023, and so I won't talk about it a month sooner than I need to. However, in general, when I've articulated incrementals, they tend to inflect at your highest point at the beginning of an upturn. They start to moderate, and then you use 30% over-the-cycle type of number. And then once you're deeper in the cycle, it would go below 30%. So we'll see as the numbers roll up and as we forecast. But I continue to -- we gave you our five-year look. I think we had incrementals in that low 30s over the course of the next five years to get to those five-year targets. And so that's -- we need to do that consistently somewhere over the next five years to hit those five-year targets. And you've seen our track record on doing that. We are pretty good about our say-do ratio on the five-year targets. So we'll see what happens, but the company is clearly in better shape and better condition to generate those incrementals.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay. Yes, agreed. Well, it's worth to try. Maybe I'll shift to ask you about distribution. And I'm curious if there's any interesting trends you're seeing in distribution that are worth calling out as we try to think about the direction of everything here. And maybe you can add a comment on distributor inventory when you do that?
Lee Banks:
Steve, it's Lee. Just -- so distribution as a whole, I would say, is going very well. I'll break it down a little bit. North America, all markets are very positive. There's -- for those distributors that are covering the natural resource industries that business is coming back quickly and specifically. Internationally, we continue to grow distribution, despite all, the term loan about 100 basis points a year. So we've been making great progress on that. And I would say on inventory, everybody could use more. I mean, there's a great pull taking place. We're able to satisfy customers. But as a whole, distribution, if they could build more inventories, I think they would.
Stephen Volkmann:
And are you seeing more, price in the distributor channel relative to the rest?
Lee Banks:
Well, we've been -- as you know, we've been very proactive, on making sure we cover material cost and do the pricing that's necessary with that. And those distributors have been passing those price increases along.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay. I appreciate you guys.
Lee Banks:
Thanks, Steve. Operator
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, and Robin, congratulations. Thanks for the help. Going back to Meggitt and some of these currency moves, the -- I'm guessing that the bulk of the functional currency for Meggitt is U.S. dollar. I'm guessing that the bulk of the cost base is sterling. Is that correct? And -- because that, then implies that if we do have a sort of a structurally weaker sterling going forward that should be, helpful to margins, so just wondering, if you can maybe comment on that.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. Nigel, this is Todd. I don't think I could comment on that. We are bound by the code. We did mention, I believe, on the call, there's a significant mix of the Meggitt business that is in the U.S. That obviously is dollar-based. So I think I'll leave it at that. But I...
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Yeah. The move is significant, so it's worth exploring. And then just thinking about international, so it looks like ex-China, the -- so the kind of the ex-China business is low-single digits in 4Q. So I'm just wondering if maybe you could just talk about, what you're seeing geographically in international markets. And then, would you encourage us to model the recovery of that $100 million of lost sales through FY 2023 at this point?
Tom Williams:
Hi Nigel, its Tom, yes, $100 million, we will recover sometime in FY 2023. And obviously, we'll embed that when we give you the guide here in August. But when I think about the markets across the regions in Q3, I'll just give you the reasons. This is all organic numbers, I've given you. In both North America and EMEA, in mid-teens; Latin America, upper teens; aerospace, 6%; and then, Asia was in the low single digits. And Asia Pacific was impacted because of China. China was down mid-single digits. The rest of Asia was up high-single digits. And that's how you get to the Asian number. But when you look at end-markets, it's pretty much across the board. As I mentioned on David's question, we have strength in 90% of our end markets. The only market decline was aerospace, military and power gen. So it's very broad-based. If I looked at even higher, distribution and industrial both growing about the same rate and a little bit slower, but it's been across all the segments.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Well. Thanks Tom. Good luck.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Nigel. Stephan I think we've got for more question?
Operator:
Thank you. For our final question, it's from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please, go ahead.
Julian Mitchell:
Thanks very much. Good morning. And appreciate all the help, Robin. So, yes, I guess my final question really just on the aerospace business. I guess, two aspects. One is, I think, you toned down the sales guide a little bit for the year. So just trying to understand what drove that and whether you think on the revenue side, the military headwinds abate entering fiscal 2023. And then, the margin performance for the year as a whole in aerospace is kind of exceptional on the operating leverage this year. Is there any way you could parse out drivers within that around maybe synergies or lower R&D, just so we can sort of use our own math to get to the sort of forward incrementals next year?
Tom Williams:
So, Julian, it's Tom. What's driving aerospace, if I just give you the two key components, is the commercial recovery. Our growth in Q3 commercial MRO was plus 31%, and commercial OEM was plus 21%. So those two, we get to the full year, plus 27% for commercial MRO, plus 17% for commercial OEM. And I think actually, when I look at my numbers, we bumped aerospace up 50 bps in Q4 versus the prior guide. So we see aerospace as positive. The order entry, again, once we cycle over the multiyear military order, which we've been trying to give you visibility to that, that was plus 20%. I mean the orders we had, commercial OEM was over 100%, commercial MRO was 60%, so gigantic orders. And what you get right now offsetting that is the military piece, which everybody tracks out the companies. The military piece for supplier health, a lot of the OEMs pulled in military business into FY 2021, which makes the comparable in 2022 difficult. But we'll cycle through that, and military will eventually get back to kind of a low single-digit type of growth. So I'm very bullish on aerospace. Obviously, we don't have any of the Meggitt synergies and that kind of stuff into it now. But we have the same goal for aerospace as we do for everybody else, trying to get to 25% ROS over the next five years. And we've got a great acquisition in Meggitt, which we've shown what that synergies brings that Meggitt business up to 100% EBITDA once we get the end of those synergies. So we have a lot of things that will help us with aerospace.
Julian Mitchell:
And -- thanks. Is there any kind of outsized mix or R&D tailwind you'd call out for the margin performance in fiscal 2022 just overall in aerospace?
Tom Williams:
Well, in the current quarter, it was light, mainly due to timing, nothing unique there. I would say, in general, it's a tad light or it's going to be 2.5% to 3% for this fiscal year. It's going to probably be more in that 3% to 4% range, if I go over that 5-year period of time. But you won't see that hit in any material quarter -- material way, like a specific quarter or specific year. It's going to -- over that period of time, we'll grow the MRO. And we're on still the R&D. And so by historical standards, that's a pretty efficient R&D spend versus what we were at the beginning of the super cycle for aerospace.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey, Julian, I would just add to that. If you remember, at the pandemic when we made our adjustments, aerospace made the most aggressive adjustments from a cost basis. So we have obviously benefited from that throughout this year. Those costs are not coming back. So that would be another change from this year versus pre-pandemic levels.
Julian Mitchell:
That’s great. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Yes.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. That concludes our Q3 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff are going to be here today if you have any further questions or if you'd like to congratulate Robin personally. I would just like to make sure everyone knows, Robin will be here through December 31 of this calendar year. So you definitely have time to congratulate her, hopefully in person, as we go throughout the year, and she'll be here for the next couple of calls as well. So that is it. I'd like to thank everyone for their interest in Parker, and thanks again for joining us today. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect. Stay safe and well. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation Fiscal Year 2022 Second Quarter Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call may be recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Jonathan and good morning everyone. Welcome to Parker's fiscal year 2022 Q2 earnings release. As Jonathan said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. Tom Williams, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President, are both with me here today for the webcast. I'd like to direct you to slide number two, which details our disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP financial measures are included in today's materials. Those materials, those reconciliations, along with this presentation, are accessible under the Investors section at parker.com and will be available for one year. As usual, today, Tom is going to begin with highlights of the quarter and a few comments on the company's transformation. I'll follow-up with a brief financial summary and review the increase to our full year guidance that we announced this morning. Tom is going to handle closing comments, and then we'll open up the lines for your questions. Two comments before we begin today. First, as a reminder, regarding the pending Meggitt acquisition, we are still bound by the requirements of the UK Takeover Code in respect to discussing certain transaction details. And secondly, we are announcing a date and time change to our upcoming virtual Investor Day due to a scheduling conflict with another company's Investor Day. Our meeting will now be held on Tuesday, March 8th, from 9:00 A.M. to 12:00 P.M. Eastern. It will be a virtual event, and among the topics that we'll cover will be the release of our new long-term financial targets. So, with that, I'll ask you to move to slide three, and I'll turn it over to you, Tom.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd and welcome everybody. Thanks for your participation today. I want to start with the title of this slide, which is exceptional execution in a challenging environment. When you look at the performance of the company in aggregate safety, sales growth, the margin expansion, EPS, it was an extremely strong quarter. This is against arguably one of the most difficult operating environments that we've all faced in our careers when you add up the cumulative effect of inflation, supply chain challenges and the Omicron virus. My thanks to the global team for just a great job execution in this quarter and really the execution for many, many quarters as we go through this presentation. Let's start with the first bullet. Focus on safety continues. It is our number one goal. We're leveraging our high-performance teams, the combination of the natural work teams that we have in our plants and warehouses as well as the Star Point teams and kaizen. And it's really this combination this team structure plus kaizen that is driving an ownership culture within the company. So, ownership of safety, but also ownership of quality, cost, delivery and engagement. Sales growth was 12% year-over-year. Organic growth was 13%. It was nice across all the external reporting segments as well as every region participating. Total sales was the second quarter record as well as total segment operating margin. EBITDA margin was 18.2% as reported or 22.7% adjusted. It was 180 basis points. It's a big move versus prior year. Robust demand environment continues. We had over 90% of our end markets in the growth phase, which we're very excited about. And this execution, what you're seeing is really the cumulative effect of One Strategy 2.0 and 3.0 driving this kind of performance. When you add the strategy changes on top of the portfolio, things we've done, adding those great acquisitions that we've done over the last number of years, and a powerful secular trends that I'm going to talk about it here momentarily, we see a future as a much longer cycle and more resilient and faster growing. So if you go to the next slide, slide 4. I've touched on this before. This kind of frames all of our thinking and our strategies for the company to around trying to achieve these three key drivers; living up to our purpose that higher calling, that North Star that we're driving for; to be great generators and deployers of cash, to be a top quartile performer versus our proxy peers. If you go to slide 5, which is the little expression that picture is worth a thousand words. This kind of sums up how the company has changed over the last number of years. We've updated this slide for FY 2022 numbers. And I'm going to just reframe the slide for you. On the left-hand side is adjusted EBITDA -- adjusted EPS, and on the right-hand side is adjusted EBITDA margin. So if you look on the left, and you go to FY 2016, so we work real hard as a company for 100 years to get to $6.99 EPS. And then the last six years, we've grown it by 2.5 times to a little over $18 in our current guide. If you just look at the gain that we've had since the pandemic, FY 2020 to FY 2022 guide, it's almost another $6 just in those two years. It happens to be, and I don't think it's coincidental although we launched Win Strategy 3.0 at the beginning of FY 2020. And you can see what it's doing to propel performance. If you look on the right-hand side, we don't guide on EBITDA margin, but we put in our EBITDA margin year-to-date to 22.4%. If you look at that from FY 2016 to that, it's 770 basis points improvement, just remarkable improvement. Really the how behind these results, it's been our people, portfolio changes that we've done and has been, again, a cumulative effect of Win Strategy 2.0, 3.0. So if you go to the next slide, give you a quick update on the Meggitt transaction. We continue to make progress. There's really four main work streams that we're working. There's two -- the economic and national security review that we're working on with the UK government. I would characterize those as constructive and positive and on track. And then the antitrust and FDI filings are proceeding as we had anticipated. We're still anticipating a Q3 calendar 2022 close and we're really excited about this. This is obviously a compelling combination. It doubles the size of our aerospace business, highly complementary technologies. And we're at the beginning of a commercial aerospace recovery with great synergies as we put these two companies together. Again, coming -- bringing this on with everything else we've been doing, a much longer cycle, less cyclical, faster growing companies. And then on slide 7, in addition to the strategic acquisitions that we've been making, we are uniquely positioned with our eight motion control technologies to benefit from the four secular trends that you see on this page. Now I touched on aerospace and the recovery and momentum of Meggitt plus Parker. But if you look at electrification, ESG, digitization, what you have here, our long-term multiyear growth enablers and content growth for us is going to grow both on-board as well as infrastructure. And we're excited this is going to be a big part of what we'll talk about at Investor Day, and we look forward to sharing more about these secular trends on March 8th with you. And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Todd for more details on the quarter.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'll ask everyone to move to slide 9, and I'll start with our FY '22 Q2 results. As Tom mentioned, this was just an outstanding quarter. Just another reminder that our operations leaders are really driving the company to significantly higher levels of performance. Our sales increased 12% versus the prior year. We did hit a record level of $3.8 billion. Tom mentioned this, but organic sales were very healthy at 13%. Currency was about a 1 point drag on sales. That's how we got to the 12% reported sales increase. Demand just remains robust. Our backlogs are healthy. Our growth remains very broad-based across all of our industrial businesses. If you look into the Aerospace business, commercial demand continue to trend positive. And we talked about this before, but the acquisitions of CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic continue to outperform our expectations. When you look at the segment operating margins, it's a Q2 record on an adjusted basis. We did 21.6% segment operating margin, that's 120 basis points improvement from prior year. And our teams are really managing through the well-documented supply chain issues, the inflationary environment. I really just want to commend them on our team's swift actions to manage these costs and inflationary actions, still while achieving record sales in the quarter. Tom mentioned this, but adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.7%. That's up 180 basis points from last year. Both our adjusted net income and our adjusted EPS has improved by 29% versus prior year. Net income is $582 million or 15.2% return on sales. And adjusted EPS was $4.46. That's $1.01 increase versus the prior year of $3.45, just a really solid quarter. If we jump to Slide 10. This is just a bridge on adjusted EPS, and I'll just detail some of the components that generated the $1.01 increase in EPS. And as you can see, really, operating execution is the major driver in this increase. Adjusted segment operating income did increase by $132 million. That's 19% greater than prior year. And that really accounts for 80% of the increase in our EPS this quarter. We did have some other favorable items that was $0.19 favorable. There were some currency gains that were favorable. We did sell a few facilities that we restructured those closed in the quarter, and we do have reduced pension expense versus prior year. All of that added up to $0.19. And then you could see the other items on the slide that all netted to $0.04 favorable. But really, the story here is just a very strong operating quarter. If we go to Slide 11, I'll make a few comments on our segment performance. Tom mentioned those secular trends, we are seeing growth from those trends across our segments. Every single one of the segments has a record adjusted segment operating margin this quarter. We did maintain a cost/price neutral position. We're very proud of that. Incrementals were 32% versus prior year. I just want to remind everybody that is against a headwind of $65 million of discretionary savings that we had in the prior year. If you exclude those discretionary savings, our incrementals were 48%. So really fantastic performance across the board from our teams. It really highlights the power of the One Strategy and really demonstrates our ability to perform through this current climate. If you look at orders, orders are plus 12 and really the demand continues to be robust across our businesses. Just a little color on Diversified Industrial North America, sales reached $1.8 billion. Organic growth in that segment was 15% versus prior year. And listen, we're really pleased with the performance in this region. We've talked a lot -- I've read -- I know everyone is familiar with the well-documented supply chain issues. Tom mentioned the Omicron spike, we are not immune to that. But we did keep operating margins at a very high level of 21.3% in this segment and we're proud of that. Order rates continued to be very high at plus 17. Our backlog is strong. And Tom mentioned this, 91% of our markets are in growth mode. So great things in the North American businesses. Industrial International is a great story. Sales are $1.4 billion. Organic growth is up 14% in this segment. And I want to note that across all the regions within our International segment, organic growth was mid-teen positive in every region. So really robust activity there. Maybe more impressive is the adjusted operating margins, 22.4%. This is an increase of 210 basis points versus the prior year. And certainly, we have volume. We've talked a lot about our growth in distribution internationally. We are benefiting from some product mix. And really, the team is doing a great job controlling cost. And this has been a really long-term effort over a long period of time from that team. So I'm really happy that they're able to put up these continued high level of margin performance. Order rates there were plus 14%, ample backlog and really solid international performance. If we look at Aerospace Systems, really continued signs of a rebound there. Sale were $618 million. Organic sales are positive at almost 6%. And we did see very strong demand in our commercial OEM and MRO markets. Great margin performance here as well. Operating margins have increased 270 basis points that finished the quarter at 20.7. And again, I just want to remind everyone that, that is still at pre-COVID volume levels. So great margin performance from our Aerospace team. Aerospace orders on a 12-month rolling rate did decline 7%. But one item I want to make clear for everybody is, we did have a few large multi-year military orders in the prior period that really created a tough comp, just in Aerospace. If we exclude those orders, Aerospace orders would be plus mid-teens positive. So we're seeing continued signs of steady improvement in Aerospace. Our order dollars in Aerospace in the quarter were at the highest level they've been in the last three quarters. So great quarter out of Aerospace. But if you really look at the segments, it's really outstanding operating performance. We've got positive growth, strong order dollars robust backlogs, record margins and really just solid execution across the board. So great segment performance. If I take you to slide 12 and talk about cash flow on a year-to-date basis, we did exceed $1 billion in cash flow from operations. That is 13.3% of sales. Free cash flow is $900 million or almost 12% of sales and conversion on a year-to-date basis is now 107%. We still continue to diligently manage working capital across the company. We really are just responding to these increased demand levels that we have. The working capital change did improve in the quarter as we forecasted. In the quarter, it was a 1.9% use of cash, versus last year it was a 4.1% source of cash. So for the full year, I just want to reiterate, we continue to forecast mid-teens cash flow from operations and free cash flow for the full year will exceed 100%. If we go to slide 13 now, I just want to make a few comments on our capital deployment activity. I'm sure many people have seen this, but last week, our Board approved a dividend declaration of $1.03 per share. That is fully supportive of our long-standing 65-year record of increasing dividends paid. And I want to give an update on the Meggitt financing. We continue to make progress on our financing plan. Our plan is flexible. It is efficient, it is risk-mitigating. I did mention on the last call that we secured a deal contingent forward hedge contract in the amount of £6.4 billion. Accounting rules require us to mark those contracts to market. That impact in the quarter was a non-cash charge of $149 million. We booked that in the other expense line, and we are treating that as an adjusted item. We now have $2.5 billion US dollars of cash deposited in escrow to fund the Meggitt transaction. That is listed on our balance sheet as restricted cash. And that was funded from a combination of commercial paper and some cash on hand. A result of that, our gross debt-to-EBITDA ended up being 2.7 times in the quarter. Net debt was 2.5 times. If you account for the $2.5 billion of restricted cash, net debt-to-EBITDA would be 1.8. Okay. So if we go to slide 14, I just want to give some details on the increase to guidance that we announced this morning, and of course, we're giving this on an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Full year adjusted EPS is raised by $0.75. We did guide to $17.30 at the midpoint last quarter. We have moved that to $18.05 and that is at the midpoint. We've also narrowed the range. Range is now $0.25, up or down and sales is also raised. We're raising the midpoint to a range of 10% at the midpoint. We've got a range of 9% to 11%. And the breakdown of that sales change at the midpoint is organic growth is 10.5%. Currency will be about 1 point unfavorable. And of course, there's no impact from acquisitions. As Tom said, we don't expect Meggitt to close in our fiscal year. If we look at the full year adjusted segment operating margin, we're also raising that 20 basis points from the prior guide. Full year now, we expect that to be 22.1% at the midpoint. There is a 20 basis point range on either side of that. And corporate G&A and Other is expected to be 6.56 on an as-reported basis, but 4.35 on an adjusted basis. So of course, there's a couple of adjusted items in there. The acquisition-related intangible assets that is a standard adjustment, the realignment expenses, standard adjustment, lowered cost to achieve, standard adjustment, but we are adjusting these transaction-related expenses for Meggitt. Year-to-date, we've got $71 million worth of transaction costs, and of course, that $149 million non-cash mark-to-market loss that I just mentioned. We're going to continue to adjust for the transaction-related expenses as they are incurred. If you look at tax rate, tax rate is now going to be slightly lower than what we had forecasted just based on first half activity. We expect that to be 22% now. And finally, guidance for the full year assumes sales, adjusted operating income and EPS all split, 48%, first half; 52% in the second half. And just a little bit more color, Q3 – FY 2022 Q3 adjusted EPS guide, we have at $4.54. So with that, Tom, I'll hand it back to you for closing comments, and I'll ask everyone to go to slide 15
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd. We've got a highly engaged team around the world living up to our purpose, which is enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. You've seen what 3.0 has done as I referenced in that EPS that's driving our current performance what's going to drive our future performance. It's early days of Win Strategy 3.0, and I would characterize it as having long legs, lots of potential ahead with Win Strategy 3.0. The portfolio transformation continues. We've acquired three great companies, are in the process of a fourth that will make us longer cycle, more resilient. And if you put that on top of the secular trends that I highlighted, we feel very, very positive about the future. So it's been our portfolio changes. It's been the strategy changes, but it really starts with our people, 55,000 team members that are thinking and acting like an owner, so 55,000 owners that are driving this transformation. So my thanks to all of them for what we did in the quarter, but really for what we've done in the last number of years. And then I'm going to hand it back to Todd for a quick comment just to set up the Q&A before we get started.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. Jonathan, I just wanted to ask the participants on the call, just as a reminder to ask one question, a follow-up, if needed, and then jump back in the queue. Just so we can try to get everyone on the call to have a shot at answering the question. We do appreciate your cooperation. So Jonathan, I'll turn it over to you for Q&A.
Operator:
Certainly [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your question please.
Joe Ritchie:
Hi. Good morning everybody. Nice quarter.
Tom Williams:
Thanks Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
So Tom, you mentioned in your prepared comments that 90% of your end markets are growing. I think that there's still some concern just around like this like hyper growth that we're seeing this year, and that we’re kind of closer to peak. Can you maybe just tell us a little bit more about, kind of, like the sustainability of growth even beyond this year and maybe some commentary around inventory balances as well?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, kind of, what I would characterize as some rebound off the bottom, Joe, but you've got a lot of things that are positive. The secular trends that I mentioned during my prepared remarks, aerospace recovery, ESG electrification, digitization, are all what I would call longer cycle. I mean the whole electrification trend is going to be years, you could suggest decades. It's what's going to happen to the, ESG, digitization, et cetera. The content that we've seen and the potential bill material changes, both on board and then adding the infrastructure that's going to be needed to support that is big, and it's going to allow us to grow differently, I think, than in the past. You've got a couple of other things that are going to underpin, I think, a more constructive industrial business cycle going forward. You've got, I think, the CapEx needs where -- are two-fold. One, you're going to need to reinvest in areas that you haven't invested in the last 10 years, because I don't think we're any different than most of my industrial peers, especially the last eight years, where we've had two industrial recessions in the pandemic. You typically probably underinvested during that time period because there's a need to catch back up to that. And then there's also the need around supply chain. Everybody is going to need to put a more robust supply chain systems, add multiple sources, et cetera, that's going to require infrastructure, extra equipment, et cetera. So you're going to have kind of two bites of the apple on CapEx needs that's going to happen. And then you're going to need to get back to normal inventory levels in the system. And today, inventory is basically nonexistent outside of the suppliers like us. But when you go into our customers and take larger distributors, you're going to need an inventory replenishment cycle. So there's a lot of things that are going to foreshadow a much more constructive future. Then, if you look at what we – the companies we've been buying, we've been buying companies that are longer cycle with accretive growth rates than what we've done historically. So again, you have the things we've done with the balance sheet, capital deployment help ourselves as well. So I think this is a different cycle. I mean, it clearly feels different to me. There's always all of those unknowns, the geopolitical unknowns and the virus, et cetera. But I think, if you – if we look at it, we were able to look forward, the next seven or eight years is going to, I think, be better for industrials in the last seven or eight.
Joe Ritchie:
Yeah. That's super helpful. Thank you, Tom. Maybe my follow-on there is again, stand out from a margin standpoint, this quarter was Aero, and it seems like we're still so far off the bottom in that business. I'm just – I'm just curious, maybe just kind of peel back the onion a little bit on what's really kind of driving the strong margins and then sustainability of those margins moving higher from here?
Tom Williams:
The big help with Aerospace is twofold. One, we were very aggressive in establishing, again, Joe, it's Tom. Establishing a fixed cost structure that was going to be designed to withstand to current conditions and flexible enough to withstand the commercial recovery. So we've done that. And we were – probably, I'd say, one of the more aggressive and quick to do that of our other peers are in the aerospace industry. So we have a fixed cost structure that is in a great position to leverage this additional volume. And then in the near-term, you're seeing significantly higher volume from commercial MRO. And that piece is obviously more higher margins. I mean, commercial MRO in the last quarter grew 47%. So those would be the two big things. We had moderate R&D in that low 3% type of level. So you get additional volume over a great cost structure and additional volume being the higher-margin piece of the portfolio is driving the margins. Just for people, I mentioned this in the last quarter, but it's even more pronounced now. We're guiding to 21.4 for the full year and that's against an all-time peak pre-COVID of 20.5. So that's fantastic. It's 90 bps higher than our previous high, and we're nowhere near previous high on revenue for Aerospace. You've got – so what's going to help, Joe, going forward, you've got ASKs, they're going to recover. You got departures, they're going to recover. Omicron is probably the silver lining to helping all of us get out of this pandemic. And the Aerospace industry will be the first to recover and you can look at – there's a lot of different people forecast in the future. When we get back to pre-COVID, I think you can say anywhere from 2023 to 2025 calendar year. If you kind of look at the median – middle of that, what most forecast were saying that puts you kind of in 2024. But there's a – you're going to have a lot of positives going forward. You've got the recovery, we've got Meggitt, and the continued good things we're doing in aerospace as a whole, so we're very positive. If we weren't so positive, we obviously wouldn't have bought Meggitt. We think there's a great space to invest in.
Joe Ritchie:
Makes a lot of sense. Thanks, Tom.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. I appreciate the questions, Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Your question, please.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Hi, guys. Just wanted to maybe just pick up on your investment comments, Tom. You talked about CapEx, but I'm just wondering about OpEx investments. And so just wondering if there's a need to catch up on engineering spending, R&D within aerospace, any comments there would be helpful.
Tom Williams:
Yes. Nigel, it's Tom. I think on the OpEx part of things, I think we're in good shape. What we've learned over the time is that innovation is not a function purely a dollar. Yes, you need to invest enough there. It's more a function of org structure, the talent and the processes that you put in place to drive that innovation. So, we think we're at a very good level. We're focusing a lot of our R&D, if I just take aerospace as an example, more on future component technologies and additive and trying to be ready for our customers when the RFPs come out. If you wait for the request for proposal to come out and start to do your R&D, you're too late. So, you have to look at where the market is going and anticipate those type of things. Our simplify design process is allowing us to innovate much more efficiently. Every new product that we develop is going through the simplify design process so that's going to help us as well. I think you weren't asking about CapEx. I think we'll have to add a little CapEx, but it will be immaterial. It would be probably just getting us into the upper 1s or closer to 2.0 on the CapEx side for productivity, for organic growth and all those kind of things. And a good example of this and how this has been happening, and I don't disclose the total numbers. But if you look at -- we added a new metric with One Strategy 3.0 called PVI, product vitality index, and it's the percent of our sales that are coming from new products, new technologies that have been developed in the last five years. And that percentage, in the last -- I'd go five years, has doubled. So, the percent of the portfolio that is more innovative is doubled. It's one of the things that's going to help us with sustainable growth. And it's one of the things that is helping us with margins because the new products are designed with a more attractive value proposition and higher margins. And so that's -- I think that's a good indicator, Nigel, that as long as you invest efficiently, you can get nice rewards for that.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. So, it sounds like no big investment cycle on OpEx. And then just my follow-on is Industrial versus North American -- International versus North America Industrial margins. Having covered Parker-Hannifin for a long time, Industrial has always lagged North America. And within the guide, international 50 bps above North America. So, I just wondering, going forward, do we think that international and North American structural margins will be very similar going forward?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Nigel, it's Tom again. Yes. Yes. I mean they're there now, and we think they basically should run the same. And they're great positive about this and for all my international colleagues that are listening, this has been years in the making, a fantastic run rate really from all the regions outside of North America have contributed to this. We're seeing margin expansion across all three regions. And the short answer, Nigel, is yes, North America and international, should basically be about the same as we go forward.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks Tom.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss from BMO. Your question please.
Tom Williams:
Joel -- welcome, Joel. Congratulations on your retirement. Glad you made it.
Joel Tiss:
Thanks. Well, you see, after I ask my question, you might not feel that way. No, just kidding. So, I have one short-term, one about net pricing for 2022? Do you think that's going to be positive, or you think it's going to continue to be neutral?
Lee Banks:
Yes. Joel, it's Lee, also congratulations. Maybe just taking a step back for everybody on the call. I think the one thing that we've established inside this company is a great culture of value-based pricing. So always pricing products for kind of the – how we make or save money for our customers. When we have times of inflation, we've got great processes internally to gauge pricing, but also what's happening with material costs. And as you know and I've said in the past, our goal is always to be margin-neutral, and we've been able to accomplish that for a long period of time. I will tell you what's happening now is just looking at material cost is not enough. Inflation is incredibly broad-based. And we've just had to take a very comprehensive look to maintain that margin neutrality. And we're very active in this last quarter. I mean, we saw things ramp up quickly. But to answer your question, I expect to maintain that margin neutrality going forward.
Joel Tiss:
And then a longer-term question, probably maybe beyond Tom's scope or whatever, one we're on Wind 5.0. Do you think by 2030, we could see 30% EBITDA margin potential? And the reason, I'm asking the question is maybe just a little bit of thought process about some of the some of the big strides, you have in front of you to get the margins higher than where they are now?
Tom Williams:
Joel, it's Tom. And I'll add my congratulations as well. And I'm going to maybe just expand for a second. We have always appreciated your honesty, your intelligence and your sense of humor, just like you started this -- your questions. And that's refreshing. And it's not always -- you don't always get that. And so on behalf of all of us, we thank you and congratulate you for a great career. On the long side, so 23, you're right, that will be beyond my time. But we're not a company that views that there's any kind of mile marker we can't go past. And so, I won't say that, that's a number we could never achieve. We're going to give you the first look at our 5-year when we get together on March 8. And I think that will give you visibility of where we think we can take the company. But just as you've seen that chart at the beginning of my remarks, what's happened with EBITDA margin, it's at like a 45-degree line. And as long as, we keep developing technologies and products that create the distinguishing value that Lee referenced, we can attract that kind of margin attainment. So that's not an overnight and you weren't suggesting it's an overnight at 2030. But I view this as we go down the highway of continuous improvement there's no exit ramps. We're just going to continue to go and keep trying to get better and aspire -- as I mentioned at the beginning, aspire to be the best industrial company that we can.
Joel Tiss:
Thank you very much.
Todd Leombruno:
Joel, we greatly appreciate it. You have a wonderful retirement.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your question please.
Jamie Cook:
Hi good morning and congrats on a nice quarter. Tom, I guess, my question, again, it relates to the margin performance in the first half of the year and what's implied in the back half of the year. I'm just sort of wondering, while you're putting up better margins than everyone expects, can you sort of talk through the supply chain, the labor inefficiencies, some of the headwinds that you're seeing in the margins, because it just makes me think, obviously, the underlying margins could be much stronger as some of these short-term issues go away. And I guess, as I think about that, does that set up Parker to put up above-average incrementals as we think about 2023, assuming sort of the world goes back to normal? Thanks.
Tom Williams :
Yes, Jamie, it's Tom. I'll start, and Lee can tag on, because Lee's leaving us as we speak. I mentioned this in the beginning that arguably the toughest environment in my career, and I've been around a long time. This is really a tough environment. If you're a general manager, you're an ops manager, supply chain leisure between inflation, COVID supply chain disruption, really difficult to schedule the shop. It's difficult to schedule your suppliers. It's difficult to schedule your team members and apply them. Omicron has been -- well, I think it's going to be a blessing overall, has been a blessing if we didn't have any of this. It's going to get us out of it. It's really kind of peaking in January, and will start to decline, hopefully, here as we go through February, but it has impacted absenteeism rates significantly. We felt some of that in the second quarter. We're feeling much higher absenteeism rates in the beginning of Q3. The reason why I go through that, is it just to your point, Jamie, it underlines how impressive these numbers are. If you run a factory and you're trying to hire a bunch of people, train them, and you've got absenteeism significantly higher than you used to, and you're having to redeploy people, retrain them, cross train them. You can imagine how difficult it is in any given day you’re not sure whether the material you want is coming in, you can just guess how hard that is. And so these numbers are impressive, to your point, as we get through this and it becomes more normal times, that's helpful, and we'll kind of indicate that when we get to IR day. But the implied guidance in our second half is quite a bit better than the first half. So 22.3 is what we're implying for total op margin in the second half. We did 21.8 in the second half of 2021. So it's a 50 bps higher than prior year. And ironically, it's the same 50 bps higher than what we did in the first half. So you see some of that sequential growth. I would just help to remind, you guys cover so many companies. We came out of the -- when we started the pandemic, we were very aggressive on taking out cost. And so it kind of fall no good decost and punished. We were one of the best companies putting up MROSs at the beginning of the pandemic. But we now have to compare against those years, and we've been trying to give you apples-for-apples. This last quarter, the apples-for-apples was a 48% incremental. The guidance for the second half is around 40% for Q3. This is making apples-for-apples taking out those discretionary costs in Q4 around 35, again, a full year, not counting those things, it turned out to be 30. I think that's a great number. In this kind of environment that you can put up a 30 incremental, you're doing some spectacular work. And again, I want to emphasize, Todd said this earlier, a big thank you to Lee and Jenny and all the group present and all the people around the world that did such a great job run our factories. But we'll get more, Jamie, into what we think we could do in a more normalized world and show you the targets in IR day.
Jamie Cook :
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate it.
Tom Williams :
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird. Your question please.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Tom, I remember on the last earnings call, you were talking about supply chain disruptions, maybe not so much impacting you, but impacting your customers and their ability to frankly produce and thus, purchase or get deliveries of components from you. I'm wondering if you can maybe give us an update here in terms of how things have evolved. And as you're looking at the back half of your fiscal year, how you think your own customers’ output/throughput is going to progress?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Mig, it's Tom. Yes, that is still the case. If you look at the whole value chain, our customers, us, our suppliers and our suppliers' suppliers, everybody is feeling it. Everybody's feeling it. I would say our customers are feeling it the worst, because they're at the top of the food chain, our customers or the OEMs, they have a more complicated build material. They have more ship dependency. And so they have more difficult time. And so, that is still -- while everybody is feeling it, and we are clearly not immune, we're feeling it as well and our suppliers are feeling it, the long pole in the tent is still our customers and their ability to manage a more complex build material coming their way. That's part of what makes forecasting sales difficult for us, is we look at our own inputs, our AI model and feedback from customers and divisions and, et cetera. But we do have to factor in, our customers are careful that they're not able to take everything that we could provide them because -- and I understand why they would do this, why would they want to take our material, if they can't put it to use. We're doing the same with our suppliers. That really hasn't changed much since our last conversation. I think, in a lot of cases, the chip issues, at least the chips that our industry, our customers and our products use are still feeling the pinch point. As a matter of fact, probably got to hear worse as we started Q3. We're not forecasting any help on that. Of course, we have the benefit being a different fiscal year company. We've only got five months left to talk about, but we don't see any help within our fiscal year. And if it helps going to come on that, it's going to be more towards the end of this calendar year.
Mig Dobre:
Understood. You talked earlier about the robustness of this industrial cycle. But, I guess, one of the concerns out there is that, the robust orders that you've seen thus far could potentially be a factor of customers trying to make sure that they do have available components in an environment in which there are shortages out there. So what is your science as to whether or not this resulted in some unnatural boost to demand or double ordering, however you want to characterize it?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Again, Mig, it's Tom. I would say that from what we can tell, is still predominantly all underlying demand and not people trying to worry about getting in line or double ordering to your point. Is that happening? I would guarantee, it probably is happening somewhere because there's no way we can 100% predict that. But my comment is the beginning of the Q&A was more longer term, this industrial cycle feels like it has stronger legs from just the recovery dynamics, CapEx and the underlying -- for us, the underlying linkage of those secular trends. I think most of what our customers are doing now is just trying to be pragmatic. They're laying in orders that are over multiple time periods than they historically would have done, which I think net-net is a good thing for the whole supply chain.
Mig Dobre:
Thanks for the call.
Tom Williams:
Appreciated it, Mig.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore. Your question, please.
David Raso:
Thanks for the time. One question a little longer-term and one more near-term. With the meeting coming up, last meeting, the margin expansion was really focused on simplification and then a better mix as distribution grows. And within simplification, obviously, we had org structure, operational complexity and particularly simple by design. I was just curious, can you give us at least a little insight on how to think about approaching this meeting? Is this the ability to drive those initiatives further, get a further update on those? Are there other things that we should consider? And then I'll follow up with my near-term question.
Tom Williams:
Yes, David, this is Tom. It's going to be a combination of what were the latest on 3.0 and really keep updating on all the changes to 3.0. It's very hard in an earnings call and just even a normal roadshow that we might be doing to take people through all the different elements of Win Strategy 3.0. So we're going to try to do a more comprehensive job of taking you through that and how it can help both growth and our margin expansion. Talk about some incentive changes that we've made, they're going to help change the behavior and motivation for our team. We're going to give you an update on the secular trends, which are really unique. I mean when Lee and I started our respective jobs, this whole ESG phenomena, the electrification, digitization, they were there, but not at the same kind of extent with the same kind of momentum and CapEx investment that's going to happen around there. And we really -- and we want to try to give people a better understanding of how our portfolio is going to change and how the content changes because of those trends. So there will be a lot of time on that. And then it will all come out in a forecast of what we think the five-year goals are going to be. So that's a not show kind of the high-level time line of our agenda for the meeting.
David Raso:
That's helpful. Thank you. And just real quick, I know the guide, we can debate conservative or not on the revenue. But in particular, the international revenues for the back half of the year implied only growing 1% despite the order it just came in 2014. And I suspect some of it's currency weighing on it. But anything we should be thoughtful about on why if you look at where the guide in the back half seems a little, at least raises an eyebrow, why would international slow that much?
Tom Williams :
Okay, David, it's Tom and Todd, tag on if I missed something here. So I'll give you what I have. I don't know where you're getting to 1%, but I'll give you what we're seeing for the second half. I'm going to give you the organic numbers. So we are raising the guide, it was 6% for the second half, all-in total company to 7%. And just to kind of provide context, that 7% is against the 10% that we did in the prior second half. So again, it's kind of the two-year stack, it's 7% on top of 10%. But if I split out the segments for you to get to the 7% North America second half is around 8.5%, International is 5%, so it's not 1%, it's 5% organic. And then Aerospace is approaching 7%, and that's how you get to the total number of 7%. I don't know, Todd, do you have to...
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Dave, I would just add, you're right. You mentioned currency. We're forecasting between 3.5 and 4 points of negative impact in the International segment just from where the currency rates are today. We're not trying to forecast those going forward. It's just a year-over-year comparison. To kind of put that in perspective, we had less than one in the first half. So that's probably a little bit of a –
David Raso:
So that's the gap between the five and one essentially?
Tom Williams:
Correct. Yeah.
David Raso:
Okay. I appreciate it. Thank you so much.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Your question please.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. Hey, Todd, you laid out how your FX hedge on financing for Meggitt. Could you just update us on what, if any, interest rate risk you have just on the actual financing cost itself?
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. We've got a very flexible plan here. We've talked a little bit about that. It's going to be a mix of commercial paper, a mix of cash. We did take out a deferred throughout term loan, and then the remaining of that is yet to be determined. We've looked at it. We feel good with the rates that we're seeing. So I guess, we could give you more info that as we get a little bit closer to taking action on that. But we've got the team looking at it, and we feel really good with the total cost of debt for this transaction.
Jeff Sprague:
You're not proactively locking anything else in front of the transaction?
Todd Leombruno:
No, we've looked at that, because the close timing is uncertain, the breakeven on that just becomes a little bit challenging.
Jeff Sprague:
Understood. And then, Lee, you mentioned we need to think more about raw mats and I totally agree. I just wonder, if you could address labor a little bit more? Tom mentioned how hard people are working in the factories and the like. Can you just maybe give us a little bit of a context of how significant labor is in terms of your direct cost in COGS or any other kind of way to frame up the labor component of the cost structure?
Lee Banks:
Yeah, I'm not sure I can be that specific for you. But I think the one thing I was thinking about when Tom was talking, the one reason we've been able to come through this two years of pandemic is really the culture around our high-performance teams driving all these processes that are embedded inside the company around lean, talent, supply chain, and the way there is just this culture of ownership. And what's been rewarding for me to see is we have had a spike in absenteeism rate, but our teams figure it out. They prioritize what needs to get done. Our local teams figure it out. There's certainly an increase in cost in different markets, inflation – to sum it up in one number, I can't do that for you. But I can tell you, costs are going up and all the support costs that go with it. But bottom line is it's really our team that keeps working all the way through this to help us achieve these results.
Jeff Sprague:
Thanks a lot. I’ll leave it there.
Lee Banks:
Appreciate it, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea from Wells Fargo. Your question, please.
Joe O'Dea:
Hi. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start on supply chain and experience over the past few months, and your confidence in kind of stabilization of peak pain, if you think we see that kind of this past quarter and the quarter we're in right now? Anything you have in terms of visibility on things getting better? And then within that, any characterization of differences you see on the North America side versus the international side on supply chain?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, Joe, it's Tom. I would say that, I don't see it getting better, as I mentioned earlier within the fiscal year. If I had to say, it's probably this current quarter we're in, is probably the toughest that we're going to experience. At least, I'm hoping, it's the toughest with all things considered. I think we've weathered it pretty well and probably the best indicator of our ability to weather has been that incremental margin conversion and our margin expansion that's really the punch line. Are you able to digest inflation, supply chain disruptions, absenteeism, everything. It all ends up in, well, how are you doing on margins? Are you expanding margins? Are you converting incremental revenue at the right kind of pace? And we've been able to do that. Part of our success on supply chain is historical. We've taken the approach historically that we want to make, buy, and sell local for local. Yes, we have global supply chains, and we look at augmenting local sources. But we've always been, from a service and a customer experience standpoint, trying to be local, too, and speed-to-market, et cetera. So, that localization has helped us a lot and a lot of -- because a lot of the pain points are tied to logistics as we're all aware of. And then we've had a pretty good risk mitigation strategy around dual sources, but we're spending a lot of time on that. So, I would tell you going forward, we're going to add more dual sources, which I'm not the only CEO in the world that's thinking that. So, that's a good infrastructure thing for us, equipment needs, et cetera, building needs. We're going to do that. We're also going to be deploying simplify design at our suppliers because as we help them with designs that are easy for them to make, obviously, that makes it easier for them to produce and at a better cost, et cetera. North America is more challenged, in general, because it has tougher logistic challenges. That would be first. And then second, it has tougher labor challenges. I think Europe in particular, did a better job of retaining people during the pandemic. There are various different number of programs that they had varied by country, but where they didn't people off and retain people and we did a lot of that as well. And so I think their labor availability and their logistics are running smooth in North America, and that's how we'd characterize the differences.
Joe O'Dea:
Got it. And then a related one on the incrementals when you talk about adjusted incrementals and a stronger first half of the year than the back half of the year, what within that change is operational versus how much of that is more a function of comps and mix and factors like that, that we would consider more non-operational elements of a step-down in the incremental in the back half?
Tom Williams:
Well, incrementals are -- incrementals based on operating margins. So, they're all operating. The difference would be what I mentioned to one of the questions was we put out some incredible incrementals in that first reset -- of pandemic. If you could go back at benchmark, we were clearly top quartile, maybe not one of the best incrementals of any industrial company. So, we're comparing against that. So, that's a difficult comparison. And then of course, we've tried to take you through making an apples-to-apples. We had description one-offs that we've savings all the people taking pay cuts beginning to pandemic is not repeating. And so the apples-for-apples, I mean, our first half this year is in the upper 40s. When you do apples-for-apples incrementals, which is absolutely fantastic. That's fantastic in normal times and everything is running smoothly and to do it in these kind of times is just incredible.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Joe, I would just add, it does get -- because those discretionary savings kind of ramped down as we went back to normal operations. The adjustment does get lower in the second half. So, we're -- the comparable is $25 million in Q3 and goes down to $10 million in Q4. So Q1 was $125 million. Q2 was $65 million. So, you could see that start to ramp down there.
Joe O'Dea:
But you're not saying that there's something about supply chain that's getting tougher or that labor is driving some meaningful change within those incrementals in the back half?
Tom Williams:
No.
Joe O'Dea:
All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research. Your question please.
Scott Davis:
Good morning. Congrats on a great -- another big result here.
Todd Leombruno:
We appreciate that.
Scott Davis:
I've got from -- I got a couple of things. First, just hearing all these questions, I mean it kind of raises the -- your question, I mean is working capital needed almost be permanently higher the next 2, 3, even potentially 4 or 5 years because of all these dislocations and such? And that kind of threw a little bit of a monkey wrench into some of your traditional lean practices?
Todd Leombruno:
No, Scott, we don't believe it is. We believe that this is a short-term response to the spike in demand. If you look at us over the longer period of time, you can see that we have done a wonderful job managing working capital. It still is early days on some of the recent acquisitions. So, I do think we have some upside there as well. But the other thing I would say is, if you look at our second half, historically, the second half is really where we've started to get a little bit more leverage from the working capital side of the fence, and that's exactly what expect to see in the second half of '22. It's always a little bit tougher in a growth environment, but that's a good problem to have. And I'm really happy with the way the teams are managing this across the entire company.
Tom Williams:
Scott, it's Tom, if I would add on, our inventory levels right now we have lots of opportunity. And as we go forward, that will be a source of cash for us once we get through the more normal supply chain conditions.
Scott Davis:
Okay. That's helpful. And then this is kind of a little bit big picture. I mean, if you went back and you looked at your original deal models in CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic, I mean where -- I hate to have you rank your children, but where have you been most kind of pleased with the upside? I know there's a little bit different duration on each of these, so it's a little unfair to compare it. But when you think about trying to normalize the trajectory, I mean, what's standing out? Anything in particular that you would note on those 3 big deals?
Tom Williams:
So Scott, I'll try -- I'm recognizing them up against the time, but we try to be quick with this. We could not be happier with all 3. You're right, it's kind of like, well, picking for your 3 children, what you deal like best, you like them all. They've all achieved their margin targets that we wanted, have all done, we would expect as far as growth resilience and being accretive to growth. I think LORD, in particular, brought some unique best practices around how we do commercial strategies, which we're applying across the company. And they've all been accretive on growth, accretive on margins and accretive on EPS. And so the design intent when we started, they lived up to their billing. A lot of times, it's not the case. So we are happy about that.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Jonathan, just to be respectful of everyone's time, I don't think we have time for another question, so I apologize to those that didn't get on the call. This really concludes our FY '22, Q2 earnings webcast. As always, Robin and Jeff are going to be available for the rest of the day. if you need any clarifications or questions. And I just ask everyone that try to stay warm, stay safe, and have a great afternoon. Thanks for your interest in Parker and thanks for joining us today.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Operator:
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation, Fiscal 2022, first-quarter earnings release, conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, our Chief Financial Officer, Todd Leombruno. Sir, please go ahead.
Todd Leombruno :
Thank you Rachel. And good morning, everyone. And thanks for joining our FY 22 Q1 earnings release webcast. As Rachel said, this is Todd Leombruno our Chief Financial Officer. And joining me today is Tom Williams, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Lee Banks, our Vice Chairman and President. If I could direct you to Slide 2, you will see our disclosure statement addressing our forward-looking statements and Non-GAAP financial measures. As usual, we've included all reconciliations for any Non-GAAP measures in today's materials. Those reconciliations and our presentation are accessible under the investor section on Parker.com. and will remain available for 1 year. The agenda is as usual, Tom is going to begin with some highlights on the quarter. He's got a few strategic comments to you that he'd like to add. And then I'll follow-up with a very brief financial summary of our quarter and provide some color to the details on the increase in our guidance that we released this morning. Tom will close with a few closing summary comments, and then we'll open up the lines and take your questions. Just one reminder regarding the pending mega acquisition. We are still bound by the requirements of the UK takeover code. And respect to discussing certain transaction details. So that's just a reminder for everyone with now, I'll ask you to move to slide 3. And I'll hand it up to Tom.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Todd. And good morning, everybody. And welcome to the call. We turned into an outstanding quarter and it's a great start to FY '22. My thanks to the global team for delivering such a record quarter against the backdrop of strong demand, inflation, and supply chain disruptions. So a couple I'll highlights, safety performance continued to improve 17% reduction or equivalents and a rolling 12-month basis, very strong growth, in particular, organic growth is 16% year-over-year. Was an extensive list of records. We had seven first quarter records, sales, total Company operating margin, net income, and EPS. And then each reporting segment, all 3 of them had all-time operating margin records. EBITDA margin, you can see the reported number was 22.1% adjusted. We're 210 basis points higher than the prior year. And then down at the bottom, last rows segment operating margin adjusted was 22. Again, a 210 basis points improvement versus the prior year. Just a great quarter. I'm very proud of the team and thank you for your hard work. Going to Slide 4, there's really 3 things that drive the Company Living up to our purpose, and create generators and deploy us the cash, and being a top quartile performer. If you go to Slide 5, I wanted to spend a minute, you're familiar with our purpose statement, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. And we've been trying to show you examples of our purpose in action after the Company come to life. And one of the secular trends that the pandemic is accelerating is standardization. And in investor day, we're going to highlight our content as you look at the whole digital supply chain. As example, things like 5G, infrastructure, electronics, manufacturing, clean rooms, data centers, electronic devices, shielding and thermal management that we do there. And of course, transportation to get these products around the world. But the application on a monitor to cover today is semiconductors, given especially the importance of chip demand around the worlds, if you go to slide 6. There's going to be a significant amount of investment as we all aware of in the semiconductor space. And that's going to drive for us double-digit growth over the next several years. Now, we are -- we have strong expertise in semiconductor manufacturing about a quarter of our divisions shipped some kind of content in the semiconductor space. So the orientation on the slide, on the left-hand side, or the applications that we go into. In the right-hand side are our technologies for just a second on applications. Those 6 bullets that you see there are really -- are made up of a combination of what we call fabs and tools. The fabs would be the infrastructure or the transportation part of the process. And then tools are the various tools that are in the factory helping to make the semiconductors. On the left-hand side is picture of a wafer and on the center there that's picture of an etch tool, a 6-chamber etch tool. On the right are our technologies that we bring to create a distinct value for our customers. First segment is process controls. Think of that as precise control of gases and liquids in the process. Fluid and gas handling provides cooling system for the tools, electro -mechanical is helping with a wafer movement, and then engineering materials is doing shielding and ceiling. The shielding is helping to protect the wafer from electromagnetic static issues which would destroy the chips. So we are essential to supply chain in this supply chain and related technologies and markets around digital. If you combine that will be part of four major secular trends for the Company driving long-term growth. That'd be aerospace, ESG, electrification, and digitization. If you go to Slide 7, speaking of the breadth of technologies, these 8 motion control technologies, 2/3, as you heard me talk about in the past of our revenue, come from customers who buy for 4 more of these technology. So again speaks to the interconnectedness the technologies, the value proposition system and subsystem work that we do. But then, and coincidently, 2/3 of our portfolio is also helping to enable our customers with our clean technology journey. And that 2/3 is going to continue to evolve to virtually a 100% over time. I'll give you a classic example. The seal work that we did today, a combustion engine for transmissions of Parker sales, eventually gets replaced for sales promoters, and batteries and electric vehicles. So the takeaway on the bottom here is really our brand promise, helping our customers increase their productivity and their profitability. And we do that really in two ways. It's that interconnected tissue, in the value proposition that we offer. And we're going to be a big part of helping our customers on their sustainability journey as we helped with our clean technologies. Go to the next slide, Slide 8 of our favorite slides. It's kind of -- you wanted to know whether profits were really different or not, a picture's worth a thousand words. On the left hand side is the EPS trend that we've updated that now for our current guidance for FY '22. And you can see that's virtually a 45 degree angle there. Tremendous amount of year-over-year improvement and a 2.5 times EPS growth from the $7 we were doing in FY '16. On our right-hand side is EBITDA margin. Again, you can see an almost 45 degree angle to that trajectory. And while we don't guide on EBITDA margin, our performance in the actual quarter just completed for EBITDA margin was 22.1%. So you can see that will continue to show the expansion we're doing on margins. So the question might be how? The how is really in the header there. It's been our people, their engagement, the ownerships that they are taking, the portfolio changes that we made, and then strategy changes. One strategy is 2.0, and now most recently 3.0. If you go to Slide 9, just a quick update on the mega transaction. We had a very strongly favorable shareholder vote. We're working with the UK government on both economic and national securities; they are underway. The anti-trust and FTI filings are proceeding as planned, and we still anticipate a Q3 calendar 2022 close. And this is as we've described before as a really compelling combination that's going to double the size of our aerospace business. And when you couple this with the other acquisitions we've done, CLARCOR, LORD, Exotic, and now Meggitt. Our portfolio is now much more long-cycle, less cyclical, and faster growing. And with that I will hand it over to Todd for more details on the quarter.
Todd Leombruno :
Okay. Thank you, Tom. I'll ask you to go to Slide 11. I know Tom mentioned a number of these numbers, so I'll try to move quick. The quarter was fantastic, right? 7 records. Sales were up almost 17% versus prior year. We finished at $3.8 billion in sales. Organic sales are roughly 16%, that's almost all of the total. And currency had a small favorable impact of less than 1%. The growth this quarter was really driven across-the-board strong, broad-based demand across all our industrial businesses. And really a rebound in the commercial aerospace market. So we were happy to see that. And as Tom mentioned, we continue to benefit from strong growth from those recent portfolio additions we didn't CLARCOR lord and exotic, Both segment operating margins and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded by 210 basis points from prior year. We're really proud of that number. The adjusted segment operating margin came in at 22%., and really just another strong quarter of margin performance. Really proud of our teams, not only responding to the increased demand, but also executing through a number of various well documented supply chain challenges. And I want to give them credit. There was a great effort to maintain costs in the quarter and you could see that in our results. Incrementals are 35% year-over-year, which is really impressive, but even more impressive considering last year, we had a $125 million of discretionary savings, really, based on the actions we took during the pandemic. So if you account for that, the difference in Incrementals would be 58%. So we're very proud of those results. If you look at adjusted net income and adjusted EPS, both of those numbers increased by 40% versus prior year. Adjusted net income is $557 million, that's a 14.8% return on sales. And adjusted EPS were $4.26. That's a $1.21 increase from prior year where we finished at $3.05. If you jump to Slide 12, this is really just that breakdown of the $1.21 increase in adjusted EPS. And really the story here is just very strong, solid operating performance across every segment. Adjusted segment operating income increased by a $184 million or almost 30% from prior year. That really is the first leg in this bridge that's $1.10 or 91% of the increase in earnings per share. All the other items netted to another $0.11 of favorable items and interest expense. Other expense and tax were all favorable and that helped us to offset just a slightly higher corporate G&A that was really based off of some of those temporary savings we took action with last year. If you go to Slide 13, just looking at the segments. The takeaway on this page is every segment generated record margins in the quarter. The other big thing I want to note is we were able -- we've always talked about trying to maintain our neutral price cost position. We were able to do that in the quarter across all of the segments. And I already mentioned Incrementals are already, but I think it really highlights our efforts on covering inflation costs and really managing through the supply chain inefficiencies. So 35% is the MROS, but 58% if you exclude those discretionary savings. And demand continued to be very robust. Orders for the total Company are up 26% from prior year. Just diving into the segments really quickly, Diversified Industrial North America sales were $1.8 billion, that's up 17% from prior year. Adjusted operating margins did improve by 30 basis points from prior year and finished at 21.3%. Really sound performance in that segment considering it's pretty clear that the supply chain challenges are more difficult in the North American region. Order rates also very healthy at 32% positive, And it's really just continuing to show a strong rebound off of those prior year incomes. If I look at our international businesses and diversified industrial international, great quarter here for that team. Even higher organic growth, 21% organic growth. Their sales came in just under $1.4 billion and adjusted operating margins, significant expansion, 360 basis points improvement from prior year and they did reach 22.8%. I'm very proud of that team, volume obviously was a big driver here, but also, we've talked about this before our focus on international distribution that helped our mix, that continues to expand. And really some disciplined price cost management across that segment, very important drivers for the quarter. And order rates also very strong at 25% plus prior year. If we move to Aerospace Systems, fantastic quarter from that team, sales were almost $600 million. Organic sales did turn positive for the segment 3.4%, but it did turn positive. And we were very pleased to see that commercial markets are trending pop. And notably the commercial aftermarket came in very strong at 33% over prior year. So it's glad to see some rebound in those markets. Operating margins, a great story here, 400 basis points improvement. That segment came in at 22.1%. And I just want to note, it's really nice to see that level of performance. We are still well below pre-COVID volume levels. So there is room to grow here, at that volume returns. So we're looking forward to see that as well. And an order rate turned positive plus 16%, that is on a 12-month rolling basis. But if you remember last quarter it was minus 7, so we did see a fraction to positive orders in the aerospace segment. And that's really this is further proof of a slow but steady recovery in that segment. So it really, thanks to all of our global team, very great execution and really just continuing to live up to our purpose and performed extremely well. I've asked you to go slide 14. This is just, I will touch on cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $424 million or 11.3% of sales, free cash flow was $376 million or 10% of sales, and our conversion for the quarter was 83%. So I just want everyone to know working capital management continues to be a very strong story here. We continue to tightly manage this and really we're just responding to the inflection and growth here. The increased level of demand, coupled with really our efforts to provide continuity of supply for our customers, drove working capital be a use of cash in the quarter. It accounted to be at 3.6% use of cash in the quarter. And if you just look at that compared to prior year, prior year we were in the second quarter of a significant downturn. Today we are in the second quarter of a significant upturn. Last year, working capital was 6.1%, source of cash last year. But just importantly, I want to be clear on this for the full year, we are forecasting mid-teens cash flow from operations and our free cash flow will be well over 100%. So you'll see that strong cash flow performance for us as we go throughout the year. On slide 15, just really a quick update on capital deployment. I think everyone saw this, but last week our board approved a dividend payout of $1.03 per share. That is our 286 consecutive quarterly dividend. And then payout is in line with our announced target of 30% to 35% of 5 year average of Net Income. And on share repurchases, we did purchase $50 million in the quarter through our 10B51 program, But we also deployed an additional $180 million to purchase shares on a discretionary basis. And essentially, what that does is that discretionary purchase makes up for the 3 quarters that we paused the 10B51 program from FY '20 Q4 through FY '21 Q2. and our goal there is to eliminate dilution in FY '22. And then I just want to give a final update on the Meggitt financing. In the quarter, we did secure a $2 billion deferred drop term loan, that together with $215 million cash deposit into escrow positioned us to take down our initial bridge facility, so that was successful. And I want to be clear here. In October, after the quarter end, we also deposited another $2.3 billion into escrow from a combination of proceeds from commercial paper, issuance and also some cash on hand. And that really allowed us to further reduce that bridge to 3.2 billion pounds. Lastly, on Meggitt financing, we did complete a deal contingent forward hedge contract in the amount of $6.4 billion. And that really was just a lock in our pound to dollar rate as we continue to work through financing on the Meggitt acquisition. So great work by the team there. If I go to Slide 16. Just looking at guidance, obviously you saw we increased our guidance this morning. As usual, we're going to give this to you on an as-reported and an adjusted basis. The sales range now for the year is approximately 6% to 9% or just under 8% at the midpoint. The breakdown of that is really all organic. It's a 8.4% organic growth. We do expect currency to turn on us in Q3 through Q4. And that will create just a minimal drag about a half a point to top-line sales and obviously that's going to impact the international segment. There is no impact from acquisitions. We still do not expect Meggitt to close in our fiscal year. We're targeting Q3 of calendar year 2022, but we have no impact from Meggitt acquisition sales or segment operating income. And the split on sales is 48% first half, 52% second half. If you move down the segment operating margins, we did increase our adjusted segment operating margin forecast for the full year by 30 basis points from our prior guide. And that full-year now gets us to 21.9% at the midpoint. There is a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. And segment operating margin is split 47% first half, 53% in the second half. No change to adjustments at a pre -tax level, you see all those numbers, those are exactly the same that we guided last quarter. And in corporate G&A and other expense, we expect that to now be $513 million on as-reported basis. And for 461 million on an adjusted basis. Really the only difference there is some transaction-related costs with the Meggitt acquisition. And just a reminder, we will continue to adjust. transaction related expenses as they are incurred until we get through all of those transactions. No change of tax rate, we expect that to be 23%. And our EPS guidance on an adjusted basis it's now $17.30 it's the midpoint. We did narrow the range a little bit, $0.35 on either side of that. The first half, second half split is 46% first half, 52 -- excuse me or 54% second half. And then finally, I will just say for Q2, we are expecting adjusted EPS to be $3.74 at the midpoint. So that's just the real brief summary of the quarter. With that, I will turn it back over to you, Tom to present his comments. Thank you, Todd. And I think the first floor that kind of sums up our thoughts. A big thank you to the global team a highly engaged team delivering outstanding performance. And couple that with this very bright future, propelled by the wind strategy at 3.0 and our strategic long cycle acquisition as part of our capital deployment strategy. With that kind of a quick comment, he wants to make logistics before we start the Q&A. Yeah, just one comment before we start the Q&A portion of the call, we'd like to respond to as many analysts as we can today on the call. So if you could ask one question, a follow-up, if necessary, and then jump back in the queue, it would be appreciated. So with that, Rachel, I'll turn it back over to you and we can start the Q&A session.
Operator:
Thank you. . . Please standby while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning Mig.
Mircea Dobre:
Good morning everyone and congrats on a very strong quarter. Tom, I guess where I was thinking we'd start. You highlighted for big trends that benefit your business, aerospace, ESG, electrification, digitization. The first one, Aerospace is perhaps clearest to observe. But I'm curious. The other three, can you give us some context in terms of how all of this plays into your business? How is it driving incremental growth? And more importantly, are all these items driven by new product introduction from Parker, or is this using the existing solutions that you have in new ways that are helping your customer achieve these goals?
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Mig. I appreciate you picked up on that comment during on the -- toward my opening comments. But yes. So what I would characterize, these are secular trends that feel longer than a normal business cycle. This is going to take decades to unfold electrification or living kind of a subset of that. And digitization continues to just transform out. We interface with each other and how we interface with the supply chain. So these are things that I view as being bigger, longer than a typical business cycle. For us, it's going to be a combination of infrastructure. So the infrastructure goes around the world to put these in place, things that are also onboard equipment in both of these are bill of material plus type of additions for us. And then also the fact that they should be faster-growing environments as a result of. We are doing innovation in this space but a lot of our portfolio today, which is what I mentioned on that one slide, 2/3 of today is already clean technology-related. Yes, we're adding some motors and motor controllers and software in addition to our current portfolio. But our current portfolio was already designed to be very energy source and be able to respond to these changing dynamics. We will try to give a little more context of this in Investor Day. But we just started before the call to try to last couple of days, quantify digital and the threat that it cuts to the Company and it's surprisingly large. And we'll give you more context on that with some actual numbers when we get to Investor Day, but, it has an opportunity you with -- you think of the Company is being very diverse. And probably no end markets outside of Aerospace being bigger than 5 or 6% digitals are threat to Custer, so many, it's going to be probably second to Aerospace, the biggest spread the Custer the Company. And ESG's unfolding for the next 20-30 years, as the world tries to get to carbon neutrality. So that's what I like if you've got a prior environment thinking on Liza by watch, 7 years to industrial recessions in a pandemic. I think we're facing a much more constructive environment going forward.
Mircea Dobre:
Understood. Then my follow-up is on international, which frankly performed quite a bit better than, I guess. Two questions here. One is on the margin side, in terms of Incrementals and maybe some things that might have been unique that helped the quarter. I don't know if there's anything to call that. And on the order front, I'm curious as to how you're seeing the various regions develop, China in particular. I know that geography punches maybe above its weight from a profitability and margin standpoint. So what are you seeing there and what's the impact on a go-forward basis in terms of mix? Thank you.
Thomas Williams:
So maybe I'll start with that Mig first. It's Tom again. On the orders, they were strong throughout the quarter and to help people, it's easier to look at it from a dollar value basis. It's dollar value was fairly consistent with what we saw on a prior quarters. We had nice consistency. The numbers in the 26% improvement went down from where we were in the mid 50s just because the prior period was improving. But we saw all regions strong internationally, all 3 of the national regions were pretty much the same. We reported our national as 25, but all 3 regions underneath there were pretty much plus or minus 25, give or take some change. On the margin side, I would say there was nothing in particular that is different other than what we've been doing all along which was when Strategy at 2.0 and 3.0 and a rapid resizing of the Company post-pandemic and then being very careful as we move into a higher demand of feathering costs and a very judicious type of fashion And a much more lean and natural fashion we've had ever before because our cost structure is so much better. I do think international has less supply chain disruptions than North America for sure, and you see that reflected in MROS.
Mircea Dobre:
Thank you.
Thomas Williams:
Appreciate it, Mig.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
Good morning. Tom, I wonder if you could address a little bit what's going on with your OE customers. The next of my question is, I thought it would be apparent that maybe in the quarter that there would be some more pressures there. I'm sure there were some sale slippage and the like, but it doesn't jump off the page and the numbers, so to speak. So maybe just a little color on what's going on with the OE s, the shape of their inventory? and just your visibility into the remainder of the year.
Thomas Williams:
Yeah, Jeff, so is Tom. So, I'm going to touch on customers and then a little bit about us because what you're referring to is really supply chain issues. And those would be the 2 fronts that it touches obviously. With our customers, I would say the supply chain has been much more acute in a bigger of an issue versus our own supply chain. What we've seen with orders from customers is that much more longer period duration, staggered release dates. Trying to make sure they have a spot in line, so to speak. We've had push-outs on delivery acceptance. So you may have a date as it's due. And due to other challenges they have as far as supply chain with other suppliers, they may not necessarily want that delivery which we fully understand. They don't want to sit on all this inventory. There has been temporary idling of plants. And this isn't really type the OEs, but you've got to rolling energy shutdown we've had and been experiencing in China, which will continue pretty much all the way to the Olympics. We've done pretty well through all that. If I had to use round numbers, it's probably a $50 to $75 million impact as far as the OE customers filling supply chain, things that feathered it to us. I think overall demand with them continues to be strong, as more just sliding to the right and then trying to manage a more complex supply chain. Their inventory -- they've always been just in time and they are being very careful to not accept other inventory that they don't they need to can put together with holes that they might have in for bill material.
Jeff Sprague:
Great. Thanks for that. That's very interesting. And then on price costs, it is quite an achievement that not only get the dollar neutrality, but margin rate neutrality, but I wonder if you could just give us a ballpark number of the actual realized price on a year-over-year basis that you're running at. Your nominal price.
Lee Banks :
Jeff, it's Lee. I can't give you an actual number, but I will tell you the margin neutrality is a lot of hard work by everybody in the Company. And I think it shouldn't be a surprise. We've had two processes embedded in our wind strategy for going on 20 years, and that's around pricing and it's around supply chain. And those processes give us very accurate indices around our selling price index and our purchase price index. So what it does, it aligns the whole Company and it gives us a way to roll things up about what we need to do going forward. And what you're seeing or the benefits of those processes really embedded in the Company and institutionalized.
Jeff Sprague:
Thanks. I'll leave it there. Take care.
Lee Banks :
Okay. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from a Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.
Scott Davis :
Hi, good. Good morning, guys.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Scott. Hope you're well.
Scott Davis :
Well, great results from you guys make our lives a little easier. So thanks for that. Now that we've had a little bit of time, not post - COVID yet, but a little bit of time. Can we take stock of and exotic kind of where they are at versus the deal models on, imagine, perhaps maybe not quite on the top-line, that your deal model, but perhaps better on the margin line, but I'm just guessing. Some color there would be helpful.
Thomas Williams:
Yes, Scott, it's Tom. We cannot be happier with both of these transactions. LORD has proven to be more resilient and faster growing than legacy Parker, and that's what we had hoped for. Its margins are beating what we had expected in -- at this kind of cash flow that we've reviewed with the board. It's performing in the upper 20s EBITDA, so it's accretive on growth, it's accretive on margins, accretive on cash flow, and is exposed to more longer cycle businesses. Then Exotic has performed remarkably well. Remember, when we bought Exotic, nobody would've anticipated the 737 MAX being grounded for as long as it was. And even with that strength of their portfolio than the team, we've put up mid-20s EBITDA. So it's a little light on the top-line, mainly because of 2 things that match grounding and the pandemic. But its margins have held up very consistent to what we had approved for the port and we know we're at the beginning of a long cycle improvement there with Exotic. The aerospace traffic is going to come back and the max ramp up is coming back. So we've gotten through the worst of it and it's going to be quite an exciting transaction for us.
Scott Davis :
Sounds good, Tom.
Lee Banks :
Just hey, I referred CLARCOR. It's been obviously a few years, but that business is also exceeding our expectations from the model standpoint. So a lot of hard work across the team. And that is flowing through in all those numbers that we just talked about. They're a big piece of that as well. So, didn't want to lose sight of that.
Scott Davis :
That was a great deal, but moving on. I love your Slide 6 of the semiconductor example, but how do you -- can you go to market as one when you're looking at content into a semi fab?
Thomas Williams:
We do Scott, we have account managers that cover certain accounts and they're representing and looking at the entire business and that's how -- we're so organized operationally around technologies. But our commercial teams are organized around channels to market, either global OEMs, national OEMs, or distribution. And so it's that account management team that brings power -- power of Parker to their customers. Or if we go through our channel partners, these are our distributors. They are bringing the power of Parker and bringing that comprehensive offering together.
Scott Davis :
Okay. Encouraging. Good luck the rest of the year, guys. Thank you.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. Ann Duignan here after 20 years.
Todd Leombruno :
Yeah. Good morning.
Ann Duignan:
Maybe first on your guidance for our fiscal Q2, you're guiding to 374 at the midpoint and consensus is that 386. Can you talk about where you think the biggest disconnect is between our sell-side models and what you're guiding to? Where should we be most focused and where do we need to review?
Thomas Williams:
At this time, I would say it's probably at the top line. So what we tried to do with Q2, you saw that we raised the organic look full-year from 7% to 8.5%, and that was primarily by raising the second half. Our second half in a prior guide was 4.5% and a new guide is 6%. We left Q2, basically the same. And that's really based on what we saw in Q1 and in particular in October, around just supply chain challenges, more around what I was talking about with Jeff, around our customer demand and kind of the uncertainties or difficulty in predicting, delivery dates of time on this. On that, you also have -- you just look at the raw dollars, the dollars flow very much proportionally from Q1 to Q2. So normally in Q2, we would have less work days, which was what we have. In North America typically if you look is over the last 20 years. Our Q2 is typically a 4% lighter Q1 and their national typically 1% lighter. We lowered North America air more minus 5 from a dollar standpoint versus Q1, mainly because that extra 100 bps of some supply chain uncertainties. And part of what we're looking at is those temporary idling that customers have been doing. And in particular, we haven't had any customers announced yet. You've got the holidays and it would be very easy for them just to extend a day or 1/2 day, those types of things. And so we're just trying to be pragmatic as to what Q2 would look like given the natural progression for Q1 and Q2, putting on a little bit of price changes. And so I think the difference would be on the top line because the incrementals for Q2, if you look at it on an apples-to-apples. again, taking out the discretionary basis that we had in prior Q2, it's another upper 50s, just like Q1. So when you look at the operational excellence, upper 50s incrementals is pretty hard to beat. And so really the only difference you could have is top-line assumptions. I'm giving you the context of how we came up with our Q2.
Ann Duignan:
Very helpful in there. I guess if I had time to back into all your first half -- back half I would have figured that out. So I appreciate you taking the time to give us that color. Just as a follow-up then. If I look at your sales in diversified industrial North America up 19% versus orders up 32%, which suggests that your lead times are extending. A, can you just confirm that. And B, is that what gives you confidence in the back half revenues or is there still some uncertainty when you're not known for having long lead times. So they have confidence in the back-half and make no change to your revenue outlook for half too. Is some of that back-half contingent on all of these supply chains getting better through the course of Q2 and off to the races thereafter or is there still some lack of visibility -- per back-half for you guys. And I'll leave it there, thanks.
Thomas Williams:
And it's Tom, again. So yes, we don't always have complete visibility, but our backlog is increasing sequentially. North America, went up 14% and international went up 6%. So that's part of it. We're also just recognizing that the second half, we don't see -- significant improvement from supply chain. We think you'll get a little bit of most of those supply chain improvements will be more so into our FY '23. We have not been impacted a lot of that, but I think the difference you're seeing between orders and organic growth is what I was referring to earlier as customers putting in orders and having it be over multi-quarters release dates, whereas in the past they would give us orders that were much shorter cycle. These are longer cycle by industrial standards with release dates over multiple quarters.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. That's helpful color. I appreciate that. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore. Please proceed with your question.
David Raso :
Hi, thank you. Obviously been covering the Company for some years and the international margins have really been impressive now running ahead of North America. And part of it lately maybe it's been a supply-chain issues are a little more acute in North America. But can you help us better understand how we should think about that notable improvement international margins, be it geographic, be it obviously building out more Parker stores, whatever it maybe, bigger distribution there. Just trying to understand. So when we think about -- if you say the upcoming March meeting and we think about margin improvement from here. It just was a major issue years ago about can International get close or equal North America. And now it's been many quarters in a row it's running ahead. And I'm just curious about the drivers and how to think about that going forward. Thank you.
Thomas Williams:
Good, David, it's Tom, we could not be happier obviously, because it has been sort of companies been working on for a long time on international margins. So I would say it's started a while even before the changes still wind strategy. At least in my watch, it started with our team working very hard to change the cost structure in all international, in particular in EMEA. And just recognizing that all those different countries and different infrastructures, there was an opportunity to try to simplify that. So that's been going on for multiple years, having a more agile lower cost structure than a concerted effort to grow international distribution from where we started at 35% -- at 35-65% split. Now to 40 and we'll give you the latest when we get to Investor Day, but it's north of 40 now, so you getting some mix help there. We've had -- Asia is always historically been a very strong performer. We really kind of set that region up that we think you can think about over the last 30 years, we set that region up. The latest and so we took all the best practices that we had from everywhere around the world when we set that region up from a cost structure standpoint. But what's helped us a lot the last couple of years is the Europe team and Latin America being small for us, but both of those teams have made a marked improvement. And when we think going forward your other part of your question, David, we see no reason why they can't continue. We'll give you new targets when we get to March. But you see right now our full-year guide. basically North America international margins conversion. We had always hoped that they be basically the same. And so going forward, we don't see any reason why they can't be and they both have equal opportunity to grow to higher levels and we'll give you that vision in March.
David Raso :
A quick follow-up. The back-half for the year fiscally speaking, if revenue is only up 4% and I have to believe pricing is running probably at least that. So the idea of volume being essentially flat or down in the back-half of the year. Is that simply a conservatism around the supply chain or just trying to understand why volumes want to be able to grow in the back half.
Thomas Williams:
As so just for clarification, the back half organic is 6%. You have about 1% currency headwind. So probably net's to around 5. And there is some -- we're being, what I mentioned earlier, pragmatic about the uncertainties on supply chain or so on our customers. But then we're not immune. We have some of our own challenges. But I think our team has done a particular job weathering it. And probably the best evidence of our ability to weather supply chain is just our ability at the MROS, because if you're struggling with your supply chain initiative, will it ultimately shows up in your marginal return on sales but that's how I'd characterize the second half.
David Raso :
Alright, thank you very much.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks for the questions David.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Please proceed with your question.
Nathan Jones :
Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones :
Parker has, over the years, continued to move towards and has always maintained a local for local sourcing and manufacturing structure. Has that given you guys better supply chain here that's allowed you to pick up any market share versus competitors who might have longer supply chains? And do you think that that market share gain will be sticky or trendy when supply chains normalize?
Lee Banks :
Yeah, Nathan, it's Lee. Just -- maybe I'll touch the first part. You're right. Our strategy always has been to build and source local, which has been incredibly helpful. And I think the other thing that's benefited us through these disruptions, we worked hard on dual-sourcing strategy where appropriate, which has given us some flexibility. And one of the things it -- is weaved itself into this are simple by design efforts and some key areas where it's been easier for us to do material substitutions than we've done in the past. So all that together is really, I'm not saying we're immune, but has made us to be able to work through the supply chain disruptions. I would say the market share that we pick up is very sticky. 1. You're talking about a lot of engineered products. So I mean, when people take the effort to engineer the product, and it's not something that you quickly change, 2. The reality is if we're taking on new business, we're looking for commitments both -- from both of us to be committed to the volume going forward. And to that's standpoint, I think it's sticky.
Nathan Jones :
Thanks. And my follow-up, Tom, was to one of your comments where you talked about customers giving you I guess, orders over multiple quarters, rather than maybe orders over just one quarter. Did that have a meaningful impact on the order rates in the quarter you've just reported first-quarter '22. And should we expect that to have maybe a little bit of a negative impact on the order rates as we go forward with that increased visibility that customers are giving you at the moment or is it not a significant amount?
Thomas Williams:
This is Thomas. Hard to quantify if you take the orders and try to some how dissect and separate all of the ones that are multi-quarters, I'd be hazard and just a guess, I don't think it's material. It just -- it's different as far as in the past, at least on industrial and normal business conditions, say normal supply chains and normal order entry patterns, you had a fairly consistent input-output, quarter-to-quarter, maybe a little bit going into the next quarter. This is clearly more over multi-quarters. And actually it's good, it's customers trying to plan for longer, trying to make sure they get their ticket in line, and in a way that help us from a plans point. So when things do stabilize if they continue that way, I think that's a good thing for scheduling our factors and scheduling our supply chain.
Nathan Jones :
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Nathan. Take care.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research. Please proceed with your questions.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. So Aerospace. I wanted to -- maybe unpack the our performance a little bit and maybe focus a little bit more on a military because that's been an area where we've seen, especially in the U.S. market, some noise from some of your competitors in defense. And I'm just curious how you see military over the next fiscal year compared to previous
Thomas Williams:
Nigel it's Tom. So on military OEMs, and that's one we mentioned in the last call, we do see that being slightly solved mid-single-digit's decline. And that's primarily because of the repositioning that our customers thankfully did to try to strengthen the supply chain and protect the supply-chain during the pandemic. They didn't want people to go wonder. And so they kind of pull forward demand into last fiscal year, leaving this fiscal year lighter. As you're adjusting inventory. So that should come back into FY '23 and beyond. And I would see that being a lower to mid-single bit. Probably more towards a low-single-digit growth on the military OE side. And then our military MRO, we had some softness in the quarter. We're still forecasting mid-single-digits positive for the full-year. Some -- the only weakness that we're really experiencing for the full-year would be the military OEM based on this supply chain, things I'd mentioned.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. That's great. Thanks, Tom. And then you raised your margin by a points at the midpoint of Aerospace. I think the revenue numbers stayed unchanged. So just curious, what's changed since you gave guidance back in August.
Thomas Williams:
The Aerospace team has done a fantastic job. There's a couple of factors, Nigel it's Tom again. First of all, a nice commercial MRO uptake. So Todd mentioned that commercial MRO up 33% for the quarter and order entry on a 312 was over 70%. So you're starting to see that replenishment of commercial aftermarket, which is up the 4 elements, the highest margin than, than we would have. And then within that kind of favorable mix of that, within that favorable mix, the spare to repair mix was favorable. So at the beginning that was just typical when customers were trying to maintain assets and minimize costs, they'll do more repair work. And then once that's exhausted and they have to put back in spares. So we've seen an uptake in spare activity. And then the aerospace team has done a great job. If you go back to the beginning of pandemic, we moved very aggressively at the beginning to resize the business for the long cycle. And what's really remarkable here is we're going to put up -- these margins were putting up the guide at 20.9% will be higher than our previous all-time high pre - COVID. And so this business is not even that 80% volume of COVID. And it's putting up margins that are higher than the best we've ever done pre-COVID. This is fantastic job. And to your point, Nigel, if you were to go compare that aerospace performance against other aerospace peers, I think we would do quite well with that.
Nigel Coe:
Without to the question on whether you can get some mid-20s longer-term. But I think we'll leave that one for March. But thanks, Tom. Good color.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Nigel, take care.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Lee Banks :
Good morning, Steve.
Stephen Volkmann:
Good morning, guys. Thanks for fitting me in here. You mentioned, Tom, some of your OE customers were sort of delaying some of their deliveries, certainly understandable. But what are you seeing in the distribution side? our inventory is also really low there. And would they -- rather be building them a little if they could.
Thomas Williams:
Absolutely, Steve, as Thomas Williams, I can let Lee Chime in if there's anything extra. Our distributors are flying the same challenges when you talk to them, they would love to be building inventory. This is what would be strategic use of cash for them as they could but they are having a hard time. All of our suppliers are getting out to where they would like them to be. So there's pretty much running hand about. And so that -- when I think about the longer-term opportunities for us on growth here, you've got the pent-up demand that reflects off the towards the bottom. But there will be an inventory replenishment back to normal levels for distribution, which will be -- will help us. And if you go out longer than that, you've got CapEx reinvestment. Two things there, under-investment in I think this whole localization as a giant burner underneath it now, because of this lack of product availability, is going to drive customers and suppliers to add capacity and to create dual capacities which has infrastructure opportunities for us, ESG, and then just the capital deployments. So I think there's long-term secular growth trajectory, but to get to your more near-term question, Yes, the distributors are in desperate need of more material, and we're doing everything that we can to get it to them.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay, great. And maybe just my quick follow-up. You guys obviously did much better this quarter than I think most of us expected, and I think maybe then you even expected, and yet for most of our companies, things are actually deteriorated through the quarter. So I guess I'm just curious really what changed for you from 3 months ago that allowed you to kind of come in with such a strong result?
Todd Leombruno :
Well, 3 months ago we we're doing an annual guide, so we're careful of the annual guide, again as Tom, as to getting too far over our skis. We try to factor in an element of uncertainties with supply chain because we were experiencing them already when we did the August guide. I think we weathered the supply chain issues better than we had anticipated, allowing us to generate higher organic growth. And then the operating margins are I think indicative of really multiple years of effort. It's a combination of when 2.0, when 3.0, the capital deployment, buying
Thomas Williams:
companies that are accretive on margins and cash and growth. So it's not an overnight sensation it's really you go to that one slide that shows the EBITDA trend it's been building on the pace of that improvement on top of some very quick cost actions that we did in the pandemic. And thankfully, not a lot of those costs have come back. We've been able to run the business differently in a more digital fashion, which is clearly helped us on some of those variable costs.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. Thank you guys.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks, Steve. Rachel, I think we have time for at least one more question. So could you take who's next in line?
Operator:
Sure. The next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Capital Market. Your line is open.
Jeff Hammond:
Good morning, guys.
Todd Leombruno :
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Appreciate you fitting me in. I know you can't say much on the mega deal, but I just wanted to understand if in Europe, from your perspective, if the review process or the gating factors around getting the deal closed or the timing has changed any -- in any way.
Thomas Williams:
Jeff, it's Tom. No, not at all. We're -- we're on schedule. We're always kind of anticipated third quarter, next calendar year. The reviews we're doing with the government on economic, and national security will conclude well before that. And then really the pacing item will be just the anti-trust and FTI filings which are proceeding as planned, but you just can't predict every country as the different process and timing. And it's difficult to project that outcome. So that's our best guess, but everything is on schedule.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great. And then Tom, I like the slide on the clean tech as well, 2/3 of the product enabling clean tech. But I'm just wondering if you have a sense of what you think your revenue mix is today to clean tech or ESG markets and what you think that might look like 3 to 5 years out.
Thomas Williams:
Yeah, it's Tom again. So it's basically that 2/3 numbers. That's how we came up with it, it's 2/3. Our revenue today would be supporting clean tech. I would argue everything we do supports sustainability, even if you take, say, engine and mobile filtration that we've be doing for heavy-duty trucks is helping that fuel run more efficiently and better emissions So even today, we just try to be very conservative in that number, recognizing that that was still a fossil fuel related technology. But it's going to morph into a 100% of the portfolio because everything is -- if you take construction equipment fossil fuel moves to more electric, all you're really doing is changing the power source. You're going from say engine at and a getting engine, diesel engine, to higher Gen Energen or FuelCell or battery or some combination thereof. And all of our technologies are still needed to facilitate the work functions and the propel functions. And if anything, like I had mentioned before, our build material gets bigger because there's much more heat, and you've got a management of all of our engineering materials, technologies. We do have, I think, a bigger bill of material that we'll have -- with our motion technologies as we add more motor content and more software, etc. So we're very excited. It came back to those secular trend for us
Jeff Hammond:
Thanks so much.
Todd Leombruno :
Thanks for the question, Jeff. Alright. I think that concludes our FY '22 Q1 earnings webcast. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. As usual, Robin and Jeff are going to be here for follow-ups if anyone needs any. And I wish everyone has a great remainder of the day. Thanks again.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2021 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Parker's Chief Financial Officer, Todd Leombruno.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Dawn. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining our FY '21 Q4 earnings release webcast. As Dawn said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. I'm here today with Tom Williams, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lee Banks, our President and Chief Operating Officer. If you could focus on slide two, this is the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any non-GAAP measures are included in today's materials. Those reconciliations and our presentation are accessible under the Investors section at parker.com and will remain available for 1 year. As usual, we'll start today with Tom providing some highlights for the quarter and our record fiscal year, as well as some color on Parker's transformation. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a brief financial summary and provide some details on our FY '22 guidance that we just released this morning. I'll then hand it back to Tom for closing comments. And then Tom, Lee and I will open the lines for Q&A. And just one reminder, in respect to the announcement we made Monday, concerning the Meggitt acquisition, we are still down by the requirement of the UK takeover code. With that, I'll ask you to move to slide three, and I'll hand it off to Tom.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining us today. This marks the end of FY '21 for us, and it was a difficult year personally and professionally for everybody due to COVID, but it was a year where the Parker team really shined. We delivered outstanding results and lived up to our purpose in enabling a better tomorrow, and my thanks goes out to the global team for just a great year, great quarter. So let's start with the quarter. It was dynamite. Top quartile safety performance, 29% reduction in reportable incidents. The sales growth in the quarter was 25% approximately. Organic was almost 22 and the industrial portion of the company grew at almost 27% in the quarter. We have six all-time quarterly records, sales, net income, EPS, segment margins for total Parker, as well as North America and international. The EBITDA margins were very strong at 21.8% as reported or 22.1% adjusted, that was 190 basis points improvement versus prior. On the segment operating margin, on an adjusted basis, if you go to that last row, 22.2% or a 230 basis point improvement versus prior. Just a great quarter and a really great team effort by everybody around the world. Go to slide four, we'll move to the full year. It was a year of records, and I won't read all of these to you, but you can see eight all-time fiscal year records. And just - that's in the history of the company, so that's 104 years to put up a record. So it speaks to how well the team performed in this last fiscal year. Sales growth came in almost 5% year-over-year. Organic was flat, but clear momentum building on orders and organic growth in the second half of the year, as you see from our order rates. FY '23 margin targets, we hit them at full two years early, and we'll be announcing new targets once we have Investor Day, March of next year, and we're going to go out for a new five year target, so we'll be going out to FY '26. We look forward to a discussion at that time. Operating cash flow was $2.6 billion, a record, that was almost 18% of sales. Free cash flow conversion rate was 135%. And we were very pleased to be able to announce the offer to acquire Meggitt Plc, which greatly enhances our aerospace portfolio, and I'll touch on that briefly here in a few minutes. So if you go to slide five, I want to talk about the transformation of the company, give you a little bit of color behind what's driving it and the progress we're making on the results. And slide six speaks to those three drivers, living up to our purpose, being great generators and deployers of cash; and being a top quartile performer. I'm going to touch on each one of these over the next several slides. When it comes to purpose, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. This is something that really resonates with our people. It represents a higher calling to your work, and it acts as our North Star. In the next few slides, I'm going to talk about and highlight our purpose in action, specifically our technologies and how they're helping health care and how they're helping the climate and create a more clean technology world for everybody. So on slide eight, we're going to talk about vaccine production, in particular, something that's obviously very pertinent for today, COVID-19 production. On the left hand side speaks to the challenges that drug manufacturers have today. This is a batch process typically with extensive inventories, long lead times to produce these products. They take huge space requirements, large footprints for storage, large footprints with the manufacturing processes and very difficult changeovers. The cleaning cycles between the batch processes is very complicated. So the idea here is a simple concept that most of us can relate to. All those have been in some kind of a restaurant with a soda fountain, where you can pick your beverage of choice. And of course, the technology behind that is a concentrated syrup and carbonated water and you get to pick the soft drink of your choice. So the idea here instead of soft drinks, could we deliver sterile vaccine ingredients with a similar type of process? And slide nine is that process. So that's our inline dilution system. It's a proprietary point-of-use process for combining the purified vaccine ingredients. So if you look at that piece of equipment, you can see it's on wheels, so it's modular, easy to move around, easy to deploy. As mixing and sensing combined, it has two way communications via the IoT-enabled, so it can talk to the manufacturer's enterprise system to enable scheduling it just in time. It uses, very importantly, intellectual property-protected single use consumables. So instead of these massive batch processes, huge cleaning events for changeovers, this is a giant productivity improvement for the drug manufacturers on the speed of the change, but also just reducing contamination tied to the changeover. Then our software and automation helps control the amount and the flow of these various ingredients. So this applies obviously to COVID-19 and apply to other vaccines that are being developed and that we can use this for other drugs as well. So this is a really attractive business opportunity for us. But more importantly, it's a great help to customers and society is a great example of our purpose in action. Move to slide 10, move to the climate and the clean technology portion of our purpose. We just recently announced last month new sustainability targets. You see on the right hand side of this page is our new sustainability report, which you can reach electronically, where we announced a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030. So that would be Scope 1 and 2 emissions, direct and indirect. And by 2040, same things go pointing to be carbon neutral. So enabling a more sustainable future with what we do with our plants, our operations, our supply chain. But in addition, if you go to slide 11, and actually, more importantly, how can we help our customers. Like how can we help society with the sustainability journey? And so in this page you see, the eight motion control technologies across the top and that this portfolio, approximately two thirds of this portfolio is a very much part of the enabling of clean technologies for our customers. The exciting part is an expanding bill of material on automobiles, construction equipment, on forestry and mining, basically almost every piece of equipment on airplanes, engines, everything is feeling this impact for more electric applications. So there's onboard opportunities, but there's also infrastructure opportunities as the world has to build in infrastructure to support that growth. Our technologies can help with that infrastructure move. And then I want to move to slide 12, which illustrates the top quartile performance portion of those three drivers. And you can see we're using two metrics to illustrate this, adjusted EPS on the left, and adjusted EBITDA margin on the right. It's really been our people, the strategic portfolio changes we made, the capital deployment decisions that we made over the last seven years and The Win Strategy that's transformative of this performance. And when you step back and look at this, this is just a remarkable improvement. On the left is a more than doubling of our EPS. And that's hard to do. I can assure you that's really hard to do. This is a fantastic progress, a little less than $7 in FY '16 and over $15 as we closed last year. And the EBITDA margin, which has clearly been propelling that from 14.7% to 21.3%, so a 660 basis point improvement there. And then the last part on transformation and the drivers is cash generation and deployment. We touched on the cash generation piece in my opening comments, but clearly, in the deployment is how to deploy capital and buying effective companies. And we're very excited to put two high quality companies together, an aerospace combination that we announced Monday, Parker with Meggitt nearly doubles the size of our Aerospace Systems segment with highly complementary technologies, 70% sole source, a strong recurring revenue, excellent growth potential combination of commercial aerospace recovery, as well as the synergies, and this will be accretive to our organic sales growth margins, EPS and cash flow. This deal makes sense for all stakeholders, the shareholders of Parker and Meggitt. The team members of both of our companies, their parishioners, pensioners and of course, both of our customers. Following the announcement on Monday, we've introduced ourselves to the key stakeholders in the UK, reinforcing why we are the best home for Meggitt. Our long great track record in the UK, a clear strategic rationale for the deal including a premium we are offered to the Meggitt shareholders, our shared interest to continue to innovate and invest, that we are committed to being a responsible steward of Meggitt. And that is why we've agreed with Meggitt to offer the UK government a number of legally binding commitments about how we're going to operate going forward. These type of transactions, but we are pleased with the reception so far. And we look forward to constructive discussions with the key people in the UK government. And we'll keep you updated as the process unfolds and we go to the planned completion of this in approximate 12 months. And with that, I'll hand it back to Todd for more details on the quarter.
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah. Thanks, Tom. I guess I would like to direct everyone's attention to slide 15. And I'll just, real quickly, walk through the FY '21 Q4 results. As Tom mentioned earlier, we have some outstanding results to share here. Sales increased over 25% in Q4 versus prior year and finished at $3.9 billion. As we said, that's an all-time record for the company. And we're really particularly proud of this due to the fact that our aerospace markets are still challenged. It really demonstrates the strength of the portfolio additions that we've spoken about, CLARCOR, LORD & Exotic, and really is driven by strong broad-based demand across all of our industrial businesses. Organic sales are up 22% in the quarter. So basically, the majority of that 25% change is all organic. This is the first time organic sales have been positive for the company in over two years. Currency also was favorable with a 3.5% impact to total sales. Moving to adjusted segment margins. That 22.2% is an improvement, like Tom said, a 230 basis points from prior year, and it's also 80 basis points improved sequentially from Q3. Just another strong quarter of margin performance, as really our teams around the world pivoted to the increased demand levels and managed through a number of challenges, very proud of our team for that margin performance. Incrementals are also commendable at 31% year-over-year, really impressive considering last year with the depth of the pandemic. And our decrementals last year were fantastic at plus - or excuse me, minus 13%. And if you remember, that included approximately $175 million of temporary savings in that FY '20 Q4. So we're really happy with the 31% incrementals. EBITDA margins also expanded 190 basis points from prior year, finishing the quarter at 22.1%. And if you look at that net income number, $577 million, that's an ROS of 14.6%, and that's an increase of nearly 50% from prior year. All of those great results translated to an adjusted EPS of $4.38. That's an increase of $1.39 per share or 46% compared to the prior year number on this slide of $2.99. Just one point I want to reference to the prior year numbers, and I'm really speaking to net income and the EPS numbers only. We have been planning for some time to convert our remaining US locations that used to use LIFO for inventory evaluation to standardize that across the company and move to FIFO inventory valuation purposes. We made that voluntary change in FY '21 Q4, and we've retrospectively applied that change to prior years, and we've attached the impact of those prior years to this press release in the table section. So the impact to the previously reported quarter last year was minimal. It was only $0.04 last year. So the $2.99 on this page, if you're looking back to prior year, that would have been $3.03 [ph] in FY '20. So one other note I want to make, LIFO, we've always booked this at the corporate level. This has no impact to our segment operating margins or the incrementals that I just mentioned to and now 100% of the company's inventory is valued using the FIFO method. So just one last comment on the quarter. Really proud of our team globally. It's just a tremendous effort the team put forth to put up just such a solid quarter to finish really, as Tom said, a record year. So if we can move to slide 16, this is just a bridge of that $1.39 increase to adjusted EPS that I just mentioned, and what I love here is the largest bar on the page, signals the strong operating performance that the teams put together. Our segment operating income on an adjusted basis increased $250 million or 40% from prior year Q4. That accounts to $1.50 of the increase in EPS that we just put up for the quarter of $1.39, so it's really strong execution really everywhere across the company. All the other items you see on the slide, if you net it, it's $0.11 unfavorable. Corporate G&A, income tax and shares were slightly unfavorable, but lower interest and lower other expense partially offset the impact there. So again, most of this is really fantastic due to comparing back to our COVID-impacted quarter of the prior year. If you go to slide 17, just some color on our segment performance. Really, the message here is our industrial businesses delivered outstanding results across the board. We've spoken in the past about the impact of these portfolio changes have had on the company, and you can see it here in these margin numbers. Diversified North America sales were $1.8 billion in the quarter. Organic sales improved again in this segment sequentially up and are up 26% versus prior year. Operating margins improved an impressive 300 basis points versus prior year and really finished at 22.5% for the quarter. Obviously, volume helped us a little bit there, but really the disciplined operating performance and cost control really continue to drive the sizable increase to margins. Margins in this segment are a record, all-time record. And incrementals were also were very healthy at 34%. And again, I keep referencing the comparables back to last year, which is just a very tough comparison. If you look at order rates, order rates are robust at plus 56%. This is up sequentially from last quarter where we reported plus 11% and really just strong across the board. If I move to the International, Diversified International segment, really same story here, a little bit higher organic growth of 20.5% [ph] And sales just reached $1.5 billion in that segment. And again, another story here, adjusted segment operating margins expanded 300 basis points versus prior year and finished at 22.1% in the International segment. Just really, again, strong organic growth in that volume, coupled with that cost containment and productivity initiatives really generated this record margin performance in this segment as well. Order rates again here, tremendous, up a little bit higher than North America at plus 58% versus 14% positive in the last quarter. So really just a great performance out of our industrial businesses. I'll just touch on Aerospace Systems, really slightly. Very sound performance in the current market. Sales here were $630 million for the quarter. And I'm happy to report organic sales have turned positive in this segment, they are up 1%. We saw strength in commercial and military aftermarkets with strong sequential growth again in Q4 and we're happy to start seeing rate increases from OEMs, particularly in the narrow body and business jet platforms. Aerospace orders also got less negative and improved to minus 7% this quarter on a rolling 12 basis versus minus 19% last quarter and further proof that we are seeing signs of recovery in this area. Operating margins also very strong, 21.6% that improved sequentially from Q3 and really finished the year at the highest level they've had in the entire fiscal year. So very proud of our aerospace team there. So just looking at the company as a whole, we're really pleased with these results. It's a solid finish to the fiscal year. Our total incrementals were 31%. I'm really proud about that. And really just a comment, if I look at just our industrial businesses, if I go back to pre-pandemic FY '19 and on a like-for-like basis, if I include LORD in those FY '19 numbers, in the industrial businesses, our sales volume has surpassed pre-COVID levels. So we're really proud about that. Orders, you can see in total are plus 43%. And as Tom mentioned, not only did we achieve our FY '23 margin targets, but we surpassed them, and we did that two years earlier. So if I go to the next slide, slide 18, cash flow. We're obviously very proud of this. Tom mentioned this earlier, full year cash flow from operations was $2.6 billion, that's an all-time record for the company. 17.9% of sales, just outstanding top quartile performance. If you look at that compared to prior year, we generated over $500 million more cash. That's 24% more cash than we did prior year. And like I said, that CFOA at $2.6 billion is a record. Working capital, really solid performance here. And I want to just really thank our teams everywhere around the world for focusing on this. We asked them to focus on this through the pandemic and they delivered soundly. So I want to thank you all for your focus on that. Free cash flow, also fantastic, 16.5%. That's up 310 basis points versus prior year, and the free cash flow conversion for the year, 135%. So with that, this now marks the 20th year that free cash flow conversion has been greater than 100% and cash flow from operations have been greater than 10%, 20 years running. All of these allowed us to significantly pay down our serviceable debt. We've been vocal about that for the last couple of months. If you look at the last 20 months, we've paid down $3.4 billion of debt and our gross debt-to-EBITDA finished the year at 2.1%, net debt is 1.9%. So again, the similar story here, we achieved these leverage levels a full one year sooner than we have originally forecast, and it's just an outstanding cash position. It's top quartile execution and really impressive considering the backdrop of the global pandemic. So 19, I will ask you to focus on 19, just flipping to FY '22 and our guidance. You saw that we released this morning. As usual, we're going to provide this on an as-reported and adjusted basis. And I'll just start at the top. Sales. We're forecasting sales to increase in the range of 5% to 9%, really 7% at the mid-point. And really the breakdown of that sales growth is essentially all organic. We do not expect the Meggitt transaction to close in FY '22. Both LORD and Exotic have anniversary [ph], so those are no longer considered acquisition sales. Therefore, we are forecasting no impact sales from acquisitions. And currency is just a minimal drag at 0.2% of sales. And just like we always do, we have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates at the end of June 30, and we've held those rates study as we forecast FY '22. One thing I'll note, the sales split for the guide is 48% first half, 52% second half. The next item I'll talk about is segment operating margin. On an as-reported basis, the guidance for the full year is 19.3% at the mid-point, and there's a range of 20 basis points on either side of that. But more importantly, on an adjusted basis, segment operating margin guidance for the full year is 21.6% at the mid-point, same range of 20 basis points on either side of that. This adjusted segment operating margin guide is 50 basis points higher than what we just finished our record FY '21 app. Just some color on adjustments. At a pretax level, business realignment charges are expected to be $35 million for FY '22. LORD cost to achieve are only $7 million for the forecasted year and acquisition related intangible amortization is $320 million. Just a note on the split, adjusted segment operating margins, 46% first half, 52%, second half. If you look at the corporate G&A interest and other, $480 million is our forecast. That is the same on an adjusted and an as-reported basis. Tax rate, we are forecasting full year to be 23%. And finally, EPS on an as-reported basis, our guidance is $14.48 at the midpoint. There's a $0.40 range on either side of that. And our adjusted EPS guidance is $16.60 at the mid-point, same $0.40 range on either side of that. Adjusted EPS split
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd. Just closing there. So just, you know, what drive these results, the engine on company’s are people, our engage team, great culture, higher levels of ownership driving this performance very [indiscernible] results as you’ve seen. Living up to our purpose, the vaccine production is a class of chain puller, top quartile performance the more than doubling of EPS, the 660 basis points improvement in EBITDA margin for the last six years, getting the margin targets that we laid out for you two years early. And obviously, we're going to keep improving upon that. And the strategic deployment of capital and change in the portfolio, CLARCOR, LORD, Exotic, and now Meggitt. You put that together with The Win Strategy 2.0 and now 3.0, and it really spells for a bright future, and we'll continue to accelerate this performance. And with that, I'll turn it over to Dawn to open up to Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi. Good morning, guys. And congrats on a great year.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Scott.
Scott Davis:
I don't always say that, but I mean it. Guys, you've had a few days for this to marinate the Meggitt deal at least. What's been the customer response and feedback to the announcement?
Tom Williams:
Scott, it's Tom. We're early days on reaching out to customers. General view is very positive. They like the fact that this is a stronger bill of material opportunity to create more value, the highly complementary technologies and really the track record of both companies. Both companies have a great reputation, great innovators, great engineering led companies. So the response so far is very positive.
Scott Davis:
Good to hear. And not to get too nitty-gritty here, but you didn't really talk much about some of the challenges out there on the cost side, supply chain disruptions, logistics, all of that. I mean clearly, with 31% incrementals, it couldn't have been too big of a deal for you guys. But perhaps you could help us understand how you've managed through that? And how are you thinking about that as it relates to guidance over the next 12 months as well?
Lee Banks:
Hey, Scott. It's Lee. I'll take a shot at answering this. I think the first thing on the supply chain side is just to kind of step back, I recognize how we're structured, which is a huge benefit for the company. So as you know, we make, sell and source in the region for the region. So it allows us to be close to the customers and get away from a lot of international shipments. Having said that, we're not immune to what's going on in any of the regions. But I would characterize it internally as being manageable but not without hard work. Now I would say the biggest challenges we're dealing with is just our customers. So I mean, I think automotive is very public on what's happening. But I probably don't have a large OEM that hasn't had some kind of disruption where lands have been down, people have been sent home, et cetera. So we're working with our customers to work through that. It's just creating a lot of chatter in the channel and it's just, I would say, best is a lot of choppy production.
Scott Davis:
Yeah. Makes sense. Okay. Thanks, Lee.
Lee Banks:
Yeah. You bet.
Operator:
I am sorry. Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. And nice quarter. I guess just a couple of questions. Can you help us understand the - what you're assuming for organic growth in the first half versus the second half? And what you're assuming sort of price versus volume? And then I guess the aerospace, like the top line guide to me seemed like you know, with what's going on, understanding we have the Delta variant, but there could be some level of conservatism there, as we think about sort of the top line. So if you can just help me understand what your assumptions are on the aerospace guide? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Jamie, it's Tom. I'm going to take the guide, and I'll take a few minutes to describe that. I'll go through the aerospace piece. I'll let Lee touch on the price cost aspect. So this is probably the question that everybody is on everybody's mind, and how do we come up with the guidance and some of the context behind it. So first of all, there is a number of tailwinds, and I'll highlight some of the headwinds. But on the tailwind side, clearly, the order trends, the macro environment, I think there's a CapEx under-spend that happened for a number of years. So I think there's some CapEx demand that's coming back for manufacturing companies. Clearly, governments being more prone to put in stimuluses, the rebound from the great shutdown and of course, rebound of activity. The commercial aerospace recovery, which I'll touch on, to answer your question here in a minute, Jamie. Low interest rates and then a climate investment, which with our clean technology portfolio is a very attractive positive for us in the future. On the headwind side is the Delta variant and COVID hasn't gone away and is creating uncertainties throughout the world. The supply chain disruptions in particular, our customers and how that might impact demand patterns, which Lee touched on than inflation, both on the material side and wages. But we've built a pretty sophisticated AI model over the last 18 months. It's not perfect, nothing is when it comes to forecasting. But in my time at the company, it's the best tool we've had to date, and we factored in all this inputs and came up with what the best forecast is. And I’ll give a little more detail behind it. The first half, that we're looking is up a little over 9% organically, and the second half up mid single digit, that’s why you get to 7% overall. And important part, so if you look at the industrial piece, both North America and industrial approximately the same, up 11% in the first half and up mid single digits in the second half. When you think about aerospace and several of the pre-reports that came out, didn't have the insight that I'm going to share with you right now. So we have aerospace with a gradual recovery, up 3% in the first half, up 5% in the second half, that's where you get the 4% at the mid-point. But what's underneath that and will help give you some context is as to why that number is what it is. On the commercial side, both OEM and MRO, that's going to grow low teens, so nice recovery there. Military MRO is growing mid single digits. What is down is military OEM, it's down mid single digits. And the reason for that, and thankfully, our customers thought as our customers accelerated deliveries last year, we were up 19% as an example. They did this to protect the supply chain to protect supplier health because a lot of suppliers have commercial exposure, as well as military exposure, and they accelerated the military exposure to help everybody. So this year that we're in now, '22 is a reset of the inventory through that supply chain. So we will be down. And of course, then we'll go back to more normal levels in FY '23. If you would take out that acceleration in the prior period, our FY '22 military OEM would be about a plus three. So then when you add - when you would factor that in, aerospace growth would be more like 8%. So that 4% is being weighted down by the military OEM segment, that reset of inventory. So hopefully, that helps everybody with why the aerospace number is what it is. Just comparing that growth rate to 7% to GIPI, Global Industrial Production Index, that's going to be within our fiscal year '22, that's a 4.8% forecast. And you've heard us talk externally, we want to grow 150 basis points faster than that, so that our number of 7% would do that. Then maybe while I've got kind of talking about guidance, I want to just touch for a second on operating margin, and I'll let Lee comment about price cost. So our operating margin guide is at 21.6% at the mid-point. So it's approximately 30% or more less for the full year. If you were to take out the discretionaries in the prior period, it made this an apples-to-apples, the underlying MROS is a positive 50%. And a good indicator is what we did in Q4, we did over 50% in Q4, so that was actual results. The reason why I mentioned that is that underlying MROS is being hidden because of the year-over-year comparisons being awkward and really speaks to the operational excellence from the team just because it's hard to do an underlying 50% from where it was, I think everybody can appreciate that. So Lee, if you want to comment on the price.
Lee Banks:
Yeah. Jamie, I'll just add on, maybe finish up here with price, cost. So at last earnings call, the question came up, and I talked about how we track all the commodities on quarterly trends and the year-over-year trends. And I said back then, it was a sea of red. In other words, everything was up. And I would tell you here a quarter later, it's still a sea of red. But having said that, we're able to see this coming very well because of the processes we have internally, by measuring what we call our purchase price index and then also maintaining margin neutrality by our selling price index. So we're on top of it. And our goal, as we've always said, is to be margin neutral. We're actively working price both with direct customers and distribution. But it is a - there is a lot of inflation in the commodity side right now, no doubt about it.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate the color.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, Mig.
Mig Dobre:
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the question. Tom, I guess I'm looking for a little more context from you vis-à-vis industrial order strength, both North America and International. I don't know what your expectations were for the quarter, but I'll tell you, versus ours, these orders were much stronger. And I'm also looking to understand what backlog must look like at this point? Because obviously, your order intake was higher than organic growth. And are there any challenges with regards to converting this backlog to actual revenues either on your side or maybe potentially your customers? So let's start with that, maybe.
Tom Williams:
So Mig, let me talk about orders. This is Tom. I think just to maybe help clarify things for people. People, you're doing two year stacks, you might say, hey, geez, it seems like the organic growth might be like compared to the two year stack. The one thing that you have to look at is in current period, we have acquisitions in prior period. We do not have LORD exactly go the way back to '19. When you do apples-to-apples on orders, '19 to '21 and exclude the acquisitions, our industrial orders are up low teens. And I just mentioned, as I was answering to Jamie's question, our forecast for the first half on industrial is low teens at 11% organic growth. So there's a clear correlation between what we're seeing versus '19, again, apples-to-apples on order entry. And that's how we - in addition to AIMO [ph] how we laid out the year. The backlogs are increasing. Again, you got to remember that the prior periods has uniquely low comps. It's probably an inflated number that you can't get too excited about. Our on-time delivery is holding up nicely. Obviously, my customs would like to see us do better on that, but it's holding up very well compared to comparable times. And I'd say the impact that we've seen has been more on customer push-outs of schedules, particularly in automotive, where the automobile OEMs are having trouble with chips as everybody knows, and they're taking really targeted shutdowns and that will push-out our various orders and that impacted North America a little bit in Q4. But as Todd had mentioned, our Q4 sales were up about 10% industrial versus Q4 FY '19. So everything is kind of coalescing between orders and sales when you compare to '19 around that low teens type of growth rate.
Mig Dobre:
Okay. And then I guess I want to follow up on Jamie's question on pricing and trying to see if we can get maybe a more specific answer. When I'm looking at various PPIs of some of the product categories that you guys are involved with, it's pretty common seeing these PPIs somewhere in plus 4%, 4.5% year-over-year. And I'm just sort of wondering if you're seeing a similar level of price increases in your industrial business. And if there are differences at all in terms of OE versus your distributor partners? Thank you.
Lee Banks:
So I would say it's a range, some lower and some higher. Whether it averages out to that or not, I can't really say. But with our OEM customers, we've got direct contracts with many of them and what we're benefiting from is a lot of them have material clauses in them. So it allows us to capture that pricing as we go forward. On the distribution side, that's typically just a list price increase. But what you're seeing is kind of our best guess and it's all in the guide right now.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you.
Tom Williams\:
Thanks, Mig.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.
Tom Williams\:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
Thanks. Good morning, guys. Can we just - maybe, I know you went through the one half dynamics, Tom, but can you just narrow that view a little bit to what's baked in to 1Q, both with respect to organic growth and incremental margin? Thanks.
Tom Williams\:
Yeah. So Nicole, it's Tom. So first quarter would be up kind of low to mid-teens for Industrials, Aerospace, low single digits; and really our first half from an MROS is going to be in the upper 20s. Again, I would just point to, again, the comparison, if you did apples-to-apples, would still be in that 50% range. So it's really outstanding performance by the operating team being masked by the prior period, all the discretionary cost savings that we had.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Tom. And then can we just clarify on the change to FIFO accounting in the US. I guess, what was the impetus to do this now? And is there any benefit to the 2022 guidance related to the FIFO change?
Todd Leombruno:
Nicole, I'll take that. This is Todd. We've been talking about this internally for quite some time, and it really started with the recent acquisitions, CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic, those companies always use the FIFO valuation method. We do not use it in our Aerospace business. We really only used it in our traditional US locations. All of our international locations by rule had to use the FIFO valuation method. So we took a look at it and said, hey, maybe this year is an opportunity to convert, and that's essentially what we did. We converted early in the quarter. We worked tirelessly across our teams and with our internal - or excuse me, our external auditors and that we felt it was the best time to do it. There really is no impact to the quarter since we converted. We essentially reported the quarter in the FIFO method. We did go back and restate prior years just to show you what the impact was. And I just want to make sure everybody realizes that. If you look at this historically, it's $0.01 or $0.02 per quarter. It's a very immaterial impact. We always book that at corporate, so it had no impact to our segment margins or anywhere incrementals, and it really just now standardizes our inventory valuation across the entire company. So we're happy with the results. In respect to FY '22, there's nothing in the guidance for a benefit for converting to FIFO.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay. Thanks for clarifying Todd. I’ll pass it on.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Tom Williams:
Hi, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Todd Leombruno:
Morning.
Nathan Jones:
I wanted to follow up on the MROS comment, Tom. 50% if you'd normalize both years for all of the discrete costs and charges and benefits, which I think is you would normally see a high MROS in the first real year of recovery here, which would then glide back down to something more normalized. Can you talk - but I think the 50 was probably higher than you would normally get in the first year. Can you talk about what you think that MROS kind of progression would be over time? And what a normalized average kind of incremental margin MROS would be for you guys?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Nathan, it's Tom. And you're right. I think this underlying MROs of 50% for a whole year, and it would be also counting Q4 and probably Q3 of last year, so 18 months will be higher and longer than we normally expect. I think what speaks to the changes from The Win Strategy and the fixed cost changes we made and maybe the efficiencies on top of those changes that came out of the pandemic is just a more efficient way of working. But I think, going forward, especially when we get to FY '23, you won't have these anniversaries to worry about with the discretionary on - you're not in the next year. I think - and I would just use for people modeling, 30%. As we've looked at it in benchmark, that continues to be a best-in-class number. And I think with all the changes we've made, I think that's a good number of you over a cycle to use 30%.
Nathan Jones:
All right. Thanks for that. I want to ask a question on the ESG report that you guys put out the other day. There is clearly some very significant reductions that Parker has made over the last decade or so and some good aggressive targets over the next 10 to 20 years. Can you talk just a little bit about - it's probably a very long answer. Is some of the mechanism that you guys used, some domain initiatives that you're going to use to achieve those goals?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. [indiscernible] So we've been this already and we've had since 2010 44% reduction, I’ve got the report actually [indiscernible] these different time periods 30% since 2010. So we’ve been on this for a while. And it's energy things that we do within the plants, renewables, different lighting, some of this will happen from indirect emissions, as the various utility companies change over to using renewables. We automatically get credit for that as well. We're going to be working with our suppliers what they can do to reduce it. All the Kaizen [ph] work we do or we just utilize the equipment better, smaller footprints, better flow, less distances traveled all those kind of things helps in this reduction. So we have every group signed up for their - have their prospective greenhouse targets that they're working on. They know exactly where they are, and that gets cascaded down plant by plant. And then we've also have - envisioned every group having a list of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, all the things they're doing, recycling things they're doing, that's in the way we know how to do. We drive it down in the respective divisions. And then at the group level, we have each group on their technology road map, developing their clean technology portfolio and how it needs to change for more EVs or fuel cell EVs or hydrogen, et cetera, and the groups have been actively doing it. The good thing about this is we formed the Motion Technology Center about 3 years ago, and for people who aren't familiar with it, this was taking the best and brightest that we could between aerospace and our Motion Systems Group. So taking all the motion-related technology of the company, having a center of excellence spread. And in particular, focusing on electrification. And a lot of the technologies that we developed in the '90s on the F-35, so the flight surfaces on the F-35 fighter are electro-hydraulically actuated and we've taken a lot of those learnings and applied it into the industrial portion of the company and has developed a suite of motors and motor controllers and software that we're offering on the industrial companies, OEMs in particular, where their platform changes as they look more electric. And when you add in acquisitions like LORD on top of the engineered materials applications that we have from legacy Parker, we have a really strong material science portfolio to help with that transformation as well. So our sustainability message is twofold, things we're going to do internally, which we have good line of sight to, and we put out two major targets 2030, 2040, but we're looking for year-over-year things to get there; and then what we're doing to help our customers because our customers at Scope 3, that's us helping our customers, and we'll be all over doing that.
Nathan Jones:
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Todd, maybe a first question on free cash flow. Clearly, really nice job this year at 16.5% of sales. I guess as you think about the free cash flow margin going forward, should we be thinking that there's going to be a little bit more like a working capital drain going forward, just given that growth is inflecting here on the industrial side?
Todd Leombruno:
Well, yeah, absolutely, Joe. There's been a step change in our cash flow performance. And I think everyone has seen that over the last couple of years. It's always a little bit tougher in a growth environment. So we'll be ready for that. I still think there's some opportunity across our enterprise. Some of the recent acquisitions, I think we've got some upside on inventory, and really I [Technical Difficulty] on receivables and payables throughout the last 20 months. So I still think we've got room to grow here. So we're not expecting much of a impact.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, great. Great, to hear. And then my one follow up, Tom, obviously, clearly big announcement this week, I am curious, you know, maybe on the flip side of things, are you thinking maybe a little bit more aggressively around like portfolio divesture side, can help with the potential deleveraging from this large acquisition and how you're thinking about divestitures and holistically, that would be helpful.
Tom Williams:
Yeah, Joe, it's Tom. We look at it all the time, not just when we have a large acquisition, but this is something we have standard workaround that we look at the office of the Chief Executive. So Lee, Todd and myself, as well as we do it annually with the Board. And I would characterize that I've used this visual for people. I think the portfolio of the company has been very thoughtfully put together. Think of it as a tree trunk with the various branches. Two thirds of our revenue comes from customers that buy from four or more of the eight technologies we have. So my predecessors and everybody that built this company did a very thoughtful job of putting together interconnected pieces that make sense. So when we do that portfolio analysis, there's very little we see that we'd want to divest. It's something we look at all the time. It doesn't mean that we wouldn't divest anything. But if you use the tree analogy, it would be a small branch. There's going to be no major trunks that gets lopped off. But we look at it all the time, but I wouldn't see any big announcements from those regarding divestitures.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
Tom Williams:
Appreciate it, Joe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO.
Joel Tiss:
Hey, guys.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, Joe.
Joel Tiss:
Just a different angle on that last question. Are there any internal actions you guys can take? Or that would really help you to get ready for the Meggitt acquisition? Or that's not how you work?
Tom Williams:
Well, I would characterize it as - Joel, it's Tom. Those internal actions have been happening every day since I joined the company and every day that everybody else that works here. I mean, we're all about continuous improvement. And I think the slide we showed earlier on the 660 basis points improvement in EBITDA margin is what's positioned us to be able to do a deal of this size. If you think about a couple of things regarding Meggitt, and just using that as an example. The multiples that we're going to do are very similar or less than what we have at CLARCOR. The synergies, while the dollars are big, the percent synergies are very similar to what we did with CLARCOR and LORD. And what's interesting is we're going to do a deal that has over 2x the purchase price of our largest transaction, but our starting leverage will be about the same point that we were when we did LORD and Exotic, so that's what might be how. The reason for that is because EBITDA has grown dramatically, the cash flow generation of the company, the EBITDA margins have grown so dramatically that we can take this size and it looks very similar to what we did in the past. And so we will get ready everyday and as we keep it [indiscernible] be ready to do something even better as we go into the future. When we had reach [ph] in our FY ’26 targets, we're going to be higher then what we are today and when Win Strategy 3.0 just started and it has tremendous firepower behind it to continue to propel the company. So we're preparing for the future every day. And I think what we did really the last 10 years is what's positioned us to do the Meggitt acquisition.
Joel Tiss:
Does that take away your kind of potential as we get to Investor Day to have some kind of bigger levers that really drive margin forward? Is it really just a series of small things? And can you give us a couple of examples of some of the things you're working on that could really continue to transform this company? And then I'm finished. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Well, there is a couple of things I'd talk about on the top line. It would be the portfolio changes we've made, but there's also things organically, we're doing differently the whole strategic positioning, which I'll try to give more color on that on IR Day and how our divisions are taking a real step change in ownership of how they position themselves versus their competitors. The innovation changes we've made on PVI and new product printing, simplify design, which is a growth propellant as well as a margin engine, international distribution growth, the digital leadership and the new incentive plan change, ACIP replacing RONA. All those things are going to help on the top line with several of those help on the margin side as well. So as the portfolio becomes more innovative, and it has over the last number of years, those carry higher margins. Simplify design, as some of you maybe heard me talk about will be the single largest margin enhancement the company has ever done, and it's just starting. International distribution as we move that mix, that's a margin enhancement. We found what digital leadership that we continue to get more efficient with the use of AI. And then probably last but not least the most important, the things we've done around engagement. If I had to pick one single thing that propelled the company, it's been the engagement of our team members, the engagement scores, the ownership. And it's hard to put a number to that, which you know when you have people that think and act like an owner that use Lean and Kaizen which is part of their normal thinking, that spirit of continuous improvement is a big part of what's driven our success to date. You can plot our Kaizen activity and our engagement scores and they're working hand in hand. They're locked on a parallel path driving success. So - it's not one single thing, Joel. It's a number of things. And I guess that one slide that we showed you earlier showed the compounding effect of improvement year-over-year. The compounding on EPS, doubling at the compound of margins, and that's going to keep going. We're not going to stop.
Joel Tiss:
That’s great. Thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Joel. Hey, Dawn, I think we have time for one more question. So whoever is next in queue, we'll take one more question.
Operator:
Okay. We have a question from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
Thank you very much. I apologize. I didn't follow the order commentary. You said that the current quarter orders were running, I think, you said 17%. Can you first clarify that? Was that industrial? Was it the whole company? I'm just trying to understand that comment.
Tom Williams:
David, this is Tom. So the comment I mentioned on orders was contrasting '19 to '21, where we were, if you made it apples-for-apples. And because we didn't have acquisitions, two last acquisitions in '19. And that has orders growing versus '19 at around low teens. And I was just making that correlation because we got order entry coming in low teens versus '19. And we've got sales growth in Q4 was right around 10% versus '19. And our forecast for organic growth the first half for the industrial piece of the company was around 11%. So they all kind of coalescing around that 10% to 11% low teen type of level.
David Raso:
I appreciate that. But we're not - right, we're not really comparing it versus '19. Your guide is '22 versus '21. And if the orders were over 50% industrial in last quarter, if you look at the more challenging comps, single stack, maybe its you know, 17%, so the orders will be like 40 or you want to double stack it, and see less of degradation. So I am just trying to understand, what are the actual order trends right now versus a year ago, just so we understand, are you saying a slowdown? Or are we just confusing the commentary about versus '19? Just to be clear, because the first half industrial growth is the correlations breaking significantly versus orders leading sales and how you're guiding.
Tom Williams:
Right. I was trying to give you back to something that was more normalized activity because the year-over-year is what we've announced. It was over 50 plus percent for international and minus 7 for Aerospace, plus 43. Because you can't extrapolate that against normal conditions because that was against a quarter ago, which is on when the great shutdown happened. So you can't take that number and extrapolate it into organic growth. You got to come back to kind of some other benchmark so we went back to when activity was more normalized, and that's the data that came up with. This is what I - all the various inputs that we put into that. So there's a lot of science that went into this number. And I'm just trying to contrast why you can't take a 43% order entry and so you're going to have a 43% organic growth.
David Raso:
But would you be able to help us with how the orders are trending currently versus a year ago?
Tom Williams:
Well, orders continued to grow through the quarter. I mean, if I take North America, it was 11% at Q3 and it went to 56%, and it sequentially got better every month through the quarter, same thing happened in international. So we saw momentum building through the quarter. Things are definitely not slowing down, David. I don't want anybody to take that thought process, things built through the quarter.
David Raso:
That's what I want to be clear, I mean, Tom, if you've got 50 in this past quarter, that usually is right, somewhat have a correlation for the next quarter, but the comps not exactly a normal comp. But the fact is if you look at the comps, this current quarter, the industrial orders should still be up north of 30 or so. And then when you have two quarters running 50, then 30, it doesn't make a lot of sense to be thinking the first half industrial is kind of low teens. And I'm just - I know it's a little tricky on the conversion, maybe some things were taking a little longer to ship. I'm just making sure we don't walk away thinking that's a pretty dramatic slowdown. So you're saying you're not seeing a slowdown at the end of the day?
Tom Williams:
I'm going to be very clear, there's absolutely no slowdown. You can't take a 50% order entry rate and draw a linear curve there and say it's a 50% organic growth.
David Raso:
I hear you. Lastly, to the March meeting, when we think about the comment about Simple by Design, still you feel pretty early in the journey. Any way you can frame for us how you perceive margin improvement from here versus kind of the journey we've been on the last five years? Just to kind of frame it a little bit for us, given Simple by Design.
Tom Williams:
I want to do that in full context of going through all the strategies and how we're going to do it, and given you a fully baked explanation. But I would just say that we're going to continue to get better. And if the future is - if the past is an indicator, you can draw that into the future.
David Raso:
No, I appreciate that. Okay, thank you very much.
Todd Leombruno:
Appreciate it, David. All right. I just want to say thank you to everyone for joining us today. This does conclude our FY '21 Q4 earnings webcast. And again, just consistent with the comments made on Monday regarding the requirements of the UK takeover code and our pending Meggitt transaction, a representative of Citibank will continue to participate on all of our analysts and investor calls for the foreseeable future. Robin and Jeff are obviously available here all day if you have further questions or need any further clarification. And always thank you for your interest in Parker. And I hope everyone has a great day and a great weekend. Take care.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2021 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Presentation. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The opening speaker for today's call is Parker's Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Todd Leombruno. Please go ahead, sir.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Elaine. And, good morning everyone. Thanks for joining our FY'21 Q3 Earnings Release Webcast. As Elaine said, this is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer speaking. Here with me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. On Slide two, you will find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for all non-GAAP measures are included in today's materials. These reconciliations and our presentation are accessible under the Investors Section at parker.com and will remain available for one year. We'll start the call today with Tom providing some quarter highlights and some strategic commentary, and I will provide a summary of the quarter, financial results and review the increased guidance that we announced this morning. Tom will then close with key messages and then Tom, Lee and I will take any questions that the Group may have. With that, I'll direct you to Slide three, and I'll hand it off to Tom.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd. And good morning everybody. Before I jump into Slide three in the quarter, I want to say thank you to all the Parker team members around the world for an outstanding quarter. It's really more than just this quarter, it's really been the whole year and the performance to the pandemic, and also the transformation of the company into a top quartile to pursue of company. These results are all because of your efforts. So, let's look at the quarter on top of Slide three. Starting with Safety as we always do, had a 33% reduction in recordable incidents, we're still in the top quartile, the combination of safety, lean our high-performance team structure in Kaizen, all driving high engagement and high performance, you see that show up in our results. Sales grow grew about 1%, the organic decline was minus 1, but in particular, if you take out Aerospace and look at the industrial only, industrial segment grew organically, almost 4% that was significant. We had word [ph] records. You can see that net income EPS in the segment for Parker North American International EBITDA margin was very strong at 21.6 as reported 21.8 adjusted a huge increase versus prior 250 basis points. Year-to-date cash flow was an all-time record of 1.9 billion and 18 for a little over 18% of sales. If you go to the very last row of this page, you see segment operating margin on an adjusted basis 21.4%. Again, a significant improvement versus prior plus 240 basis points. So, a terrific quarter and really tough conditions. So if you go to the next slide, I want to talk about the transformation of the company, the old adage that a picture is worth a thousand words. And, so I want to take you to Slide five, and this is really the picture that speaks to the transformation of the company. Let me explain the chart here for a minute. So you've got in gold bars the adjusted EPS, the blue line is global PMI plotted on a quarterly basis. If you look at the last six years and look at that dotted green line and compare that with the blue global PMI line, you see they are much less correlated, in fact they are diverging and there's been a step change in performance of the EPS over this time period, is more than doubled from $7 to our guidance of $14.80, so approaching $15 and was propelled it over the time period an EBITDA margin that's grown 600 basis points. So you might ask how that happened, that's really that blue take away in the bottom of the page, it's our people, that focus, the alignment, the engagement that comes when you have people thinking like an owner, the portfolio, which is a combination of our interconnected technologies and the value they bring and the capital deployment we've done buying some great companies that have added to the strength of the company. Then our performance, which really sits with the strategy of the company, 132.0 come at the beginning of this journey, strategy 3.0 most recently in FY '20. So this combination has really transformed the company you see that as a business slide and we're very proud of it. But if you go to slide six, so that's what's kind of in the rearview mirror but going forward, we're equally excited about where the company is going to go and I've called this a convergence of positive inflection point, so in the left-hand side it is kind of those external inflection points, you're familiar with a lot of these - macro environment momentum, you see that in our positive orders and positive organic growth industrial, we showed in this quarter. Aerospace is going to recover, question is just what the trajectory will be in the timing, vaccines to make a progress around the world. There's going to be a significant amount of climate investment. If you put all that on top of, right all these down but low interest rates pent-up CapEx demand of fiscal spending, you have a very attractive environment for industrials for the next several years. On the right-hand side, it is really the internal things we've been doing when it shows 3.0 particular, but at the last line, I just went through spoke to all those internal actions because that's what's been propelling us. Remember that last period - last six years really had very little help from a macro standpoint. So, if you look at the three major things, I highlighted here performance becoming top quartile, strategies to grow fast in the market you've seen our margin expansion, great cash flow generation consistently over the cycle, portfolio, we've added three great companies are accretive on growth cash margins, and with the rapid debt pay down that we've done, we're positioned to do future capital deployment, which is very exciting. The technology will get into in the next Slide, but the interconnected technology is really distinctive for us. And then with a climate investment, we are very well positioned with our suite of clean technology to take advantage of that. So, I would tell you that my view and the team's view, this is about as good an environment as we've seen in a number of years. Go to Slide seven, you've heard me talk about this page, the power of this interconnection of the technology brings that value accretive for customers, what I want to do today in light of the Clean Technology discussion is give you forward samples and how this suite of technologies helps with - were clean environment clean technology world. So, the first would be electrification and we've got a full portfolio technologies here hydraulic, electro hydraulic, electromechanical low competitors got that breadth of technologies and we formed about four years ago the Motion Technology Center, which put the best and brightest of engineers doing Motion Technologies and things of Slide as well as things with wheels underneath even so we put the motion and the aerospace teams together and this team has come up with a great listing of products around motors and burners and controllers, but there's also in addition to the typical motion opportunities, there's other challenges of our electrification like light weighting, thermal management, shielding, structural adhesives, noise vibration all of these to the combination we have a legacy Engineered Materials and with LORD acquisition, we're well positioned to take advantage of those. Secondary is batteries and fuel cells that utilize most of technology see on this page. Thirdly, clean power sources and that kind of falls into two word [ph] renewables, which we do a lot and always have done a lot of wind and solar. Then the hydrogen, we just recently joined the Hydrogen Council and it's going to be both on board as well as infrastructure opportunities as you go up for the next many years and it's really building in our high pressure in our cryogenic applications that we have today. And then we've been and more sustainable company for a long time - the clean technology example for us, that started a lot of things is filtration and our filtration business protection purifies assets and equipment for people for more sustainable environments. So we feel very good about this portfolio is more climate investment in the future. Going to Slide eight, just want to remind you of our purpose statement enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. It's been very inspirational for our team, and I think it comes more into light, when we give you examples of the purpose and action, which is on Slide nine. And again, kind of following with a clean technology discussion when I'd highlight electrification, I'm going to highlight in particular electric vehicles. On the left-hand side, you see applications that have changed because of an AGV an EV versus a combustion engine. On the right-hand side, you see the various technologies of Parker has that addresses those applications, I won't read all those [indiscernible] major categories safety related technologies, things would say wait thermal management variety of things we do for critical protection. The big opportunity for us, we will obviously are in the fact is helping to make these vehicles, and we'll always do that, but the big opportunity for us is the word [ph] content around engineered materials. Our build material for an EV or an HEV is Ten-X what it was on a combustion engine and it's one of the key reasons why our LORD business has grown so nicely even despite the pandemic, we grew 11% organically in Q3 for Board. So we're very happy with the progress so far. And our purpose and action around electrification as an example. So with that, I'll turn it over to Todd for more details on the quarter.
Todd Leombruno:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'll just word [ph] everyone to Slide 11 and I'll do a quick review of the financial results for the quarter. Tom mentioned some of these. So I'll try to move quickly. Sales for the quarter were $3.746 billion that is an increase of 1.2% versus prior year. We are proud of the fact that the diversified industrial segment did turn positive organically. Industrial segment organic growth was 3.7, obviously that was offset by the Aerospace, Systems segment there organic decline was 19.7%. So, all in that drove total organic sales to minus 1.0. Currency was a favorable impact this quarter of 2.2%. And just a note in respect to acquisition, this is the first full quarter that we report both LORD and Exotic in our organic growth numbers. So therefore the acquisition impact was zero. Moving to segment operating margins, you saw the number 21.4%. That's an improvement of 240 basis points from prior year. It's also an improvement of 130 basis points sequentially. Strong margin performance there. And that really was the result of just broad-based execution of the Win Strategy. We continue to manage our cost in a disciplined manner. The portfolio additions in core for LORD and Exotic are all performing soundly and you've all been familiar with the restructuring activities that we've done in FY '20 and in FY '21 those are on track and unplanned and generating the savings that we expected. Adjusted EBITDA margins did expand 250 basis points from prior year finished the quarter at 21.8% and net income is $540 million, which is a 14.4%, ROF that's increased by 22% from prior year. Adjusted EPS was $4.11, that is a $0.72 or 21% increase compared to prior year's results of $3.39. And as Tom said, it's just really outstanding performance, and I'd also to like to commend our global team members for generating these results. If you Slide to Slide 12, this was really a bridge of that $0.72 increase in adjusted EPS versus prior year and the story here across the board is the strong execution from all of our businesses. This produced robust incrementals in our diversified industrial segment and really commendable decrementals in the Aerospace Systems segment. Adjusted segment operating income did increased by $98 million or 14% versus prior year. That equates to $0.58 of EPS and really is the primary driver of the increase in our adjusted EPS number. Interest expense was favorable to prior by $0.12 as we posted yet another quarter of sizable repayment of our serviceable debt and that is really benefiting from our strong cash flow generation. Other expense, income tax and shares netted to a $0.02 favorable impact compared to prior year. Moving to Slide 13, this is just an update on our discretionary and permanent cost out actions, and this is just a reminder, these represent both savings recognized in the current fiscal year from our discretionary actions in response to the pandemic and our permanent realignment actions that were taken at the end of FY '20 and throughout FY '21. Discretionary savings came in exactly as we guided at $25 million for Q3 and now totaled $215 million year-to-date, there is no change to our discretionary savings forecast for Q4, that remains $10 million and we continue to forecast the total year to be $225 million in full-year savings. Just to note with the increased demand levels that we're seeing from our positive order entry, our teams have really pivoted to grow and really now these discretionary actions that we knew would diminish across the calendar year have now really been based in reduced travel expenses. If you move to permanent savings, we realized $65 million in Q3, our total year-to-date is $190 million, the full-year forecast again here remains as previously communicated at $250 million, one item to note, we did guide that the cost of the FY '21 restructuring would come in around $60 million, it's now expected to be $10 million less or $50 million but there is no change to the expected savings that we are forecasting. Total incremental impact for the year from both permanent and discretionary savings is $260 million. And just one other thing to note this will probably be the last quarter that we detail these items as we anniversary, the pandemic induced volume declines and really focus our attention on growth. So the takeaway is savings are on track, no changes other than the expense to be a little bit less. If you go to Slide 14, this is just highlighting some items from our segment performance for the third quarter in our diversified North America business, sales were $1.76 billion that is an improvement in organic sales sequentially from Q2, it still is down 1.2% from prior year, but if you look at the adjusted operating margins, we did increase those operating margins by 190 basis points versus prior year and reached 21.9% for the quarter. We were able to increase these margins despite that sales decline due to our disciplined cost management, those portfolio improvements we've talked about and really margins in this segment are at a record level. If you Slide over to order rates, another positive here, they improved significantly from plus one last quarter and they are now, ending the quarter at plus 11. Looking at the Diversified Industrial International sales, robust organic growth here of 11.1%, total sales came in at 1.39 billion and another great story here adjusted operating margins expanded substantially and reached 21.6%, an improvement of 400 basis points versus prior year, clearly the double-digit organic growth coupled with the cost containment and the effort from our global team really generated this level of record margin performance as well. And again, another plus here is order rates accelerated in this segment and are now plus 14% for the quarter. If you look at Aerospace Systems, they continue to really perform soundly in the current environment, sales were 599 million for the quarter, organic sales showed a slight sequential improvement from Q2, but are still down basically 20% from prior year. Commercial end markets are still under pressure. However, there is a strength in our military end markets. What's nice here is operating margins were 19.4%, 30 basis points better than prior year despite that 20% decline in volume and if you look at our fiscal year, that performance of 19.4% is the highest they've done all year. So we're really proud about that. Decremental margins are also impressive here in this segment this quarter there 18% decremental margins. Order rates appear to a bottom and finished at minus 19 for this quarter. And just a reminder that is on a rolling 12-month basis. So, overall we're pleased about a number of things this quarter that Diversified Industrial segment organic growth of 3.7 as a positive total segment margins improved 240 basis points from prior year and at record levels, orders have turned positive in plus 6 and our team is really continuing to leverage the Win Strategy to drive significant improvements in our business and increased productivity and generate strong cash flow. So with that, I'll ask you to go to Slide 15, just to give some details on our cash flow year-to-date cash flow from operations is now $1.9 billion that's 18.1% of sales, that's up 45% from prior year and it is a year-to-date record. Improved net income margin as we've talked about before is really a key driver in this it's created a step change in our cash flow generation. But I also like to commend our team members intense focus on our working capital metrics. Each of our working capital metrics is improving and showing positive results and I'm really proud about that. Moving to free cash flow at 16.8% of sales that's an increase of 630 basis points over prior year and our free cash flow conversion is now 141%, which compares to 122% in the prior year. So, great cash flow generation there. Moving to Slide 16, I just want to mention some things we've done on our capital deployment, we did pay down $426 million of debt this quarter that brings our total debt reduction to a little over $3.2 billion in the last 17 months since the LORD acquisition closed. This reduced our gross debt to EBITDA to 2.4 it was 3.8 in the prior year and net debt to EBITDA is now 2.2. And that's down from 3.5% in the prior year. Looking at dividends last week, you saw our Board of Directors approved a quarterly dividend increase of $0.15 or 17%. This raises our quarterly dividend from $0.88 to $1.3 per share and extended our record of increasing the annual dividends paid per share to 65 consecutive years. And finally, as we mentioned at the Q2 earnings release, we've reinstated our 10b5 program and repurchased $50 million of shares in the quarter. All right. So if you go to Slide 17, I'll just provide some color to the increase in guidance that we gave this morning really the strong year-to-date performance and these order trends have positioned us to increase our full year outlook for sales to a year-over-year increase of 4.5% at the midpoint and the breakdown of that sales change is this organic sales are now expected to be flat year-over-year. Acquisitions will add 3% and the full year currency impact is expected to be 1.5%. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended March 31 and we held those rates constant to estimate the Q4 '21 impact. Moving to segment operating margins, our guidance for the full year is raised to 20.8% and that would equate to an increase of 190 basis points versus prior year. And just some additional color some things to note corporate G&A interest and other is expected to be $381 million on an as reported basis and a $479 million on an adjusted basis, the main difference between those two numbers is that $101 million pre-tax or $76 million after-tax gain on real estate that we recognized and adjusted in the other income line in Q2. That's the main item. If you look at our tax rates down just a little bit. We're now expecting the full year tax rate to be 22.5% and moving to EPS on a full year basis, our as-reported EPS guidance range is increased from 12.96 to 13.26 that's $13.11 at the midpoint. And then on an adjusted basis, we're increasing the range from 14.65 to 14.95 that's 14.80% at the midpoint. For Q4, adjusted EPS was projected to be $4.18 per share, that excludes $0.54 or $93 million of acquisition related amortization expense, the finishing of our business reliant expenses and integration costs. If you look at Slide 18, this is just a bridge of our increase to our adjusted EPS guidance. Now, these results that we just reviewed, you can see the outperformance that we had in Q3 that increases our previous guide by $0.57, the order strength that we just reviewed and really the exceptional operation and execution by our teams have allowed us to increase Q4 guide by an additional $0.33 and that is exclusively based on increase segment operating income. This raises our full year EPS guide by about 6.5% from prior guide. And with that, I'll turn it over to Tom for some summary comments and ask you to move to Slide 19.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Todd. So we've got a highly engaged team. You see that this was driving our results. The ownership culture that we're building, record performance in difficult times, these numbers are historical all-time highs for us and not the best of times. The convergence of positive inflection points we feel points very bright future and the cash generation and deployment as evidenced by the rapid debt pay down acquisition performance and our dividend increase, which I would just highlight the first time we've been over $1 at $1.3 on a quarterly dividend, which we're very proud. So the Win Strategy 3.0 and our Purpose Statement is well positioned in addition to inflection points for a very strong future. I'll turn it back to Elaine for to start the Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning and nice quarter. I guess just two questions, one, understanding you don't want to talk about 2022. But I'm trying to understand the setup for incrementals and to what degree if volumes are still there. Can we have above average sort of incrementals and how that discretionary cost sort of factor back in and impact incremental margins? And then I guess my second question, as regards to your longer-term margin targets, which you're on already starting to beat those targets. So, in particular if volume is not really showing up in your numbers, I'm just trying to think about how we position your margins longer term, potentially to be at a higher structural level? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Jamie. This is Tom. So I'll start with the incrementals. The one thing I would point out is our guidance for Q4 is incrementals of about 30% and if you were to do like for like take out the discretionary savings, we had in Q4 prior periods, maybe about a 50% incremental. So would be at the incrementals that we feel based on the cost structure and all the things we've done with when 2.0 when 3.0 that we would generate at this point in the cycle. So that's - we would continue to do 30%, I think as we go into 22, obviously we're not guiding to that yet. So I think just a good round number to use for us, but I'll highlight Q4 because it is impacted by the prior period discretionary which we don't have now are not as much, and that difference is pretty significantly go from the 30 to plus 50 incremental. So, it speaks to the underlying power of the business is there. And then on your question on long-term margin targets; yes, this is a good problem that we have that we basically beat our targets by about two years, our guide of 20.0 needed to midpoint on op margin is within spitting distance of the '21 and then our EBITDA but we don't guide on EBITDA margins will be at the 21% for the full year on EBITDA, so we're actively working on what this new set of targets will be and I'm sure this is a question everybody had, so we are going to disclose at IR Day, which will be March of next year and we think that's the appropriate form to do that, the rest assured, we're working on it and we're not going to settle or be happy was stopping where we're going to continue to march forward and we'll give you that vision when we have Investor Day.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Congrats. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Tom Williams:
Hi, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah, I guess I'll follow Jamie, I'll ask one question. But it will have two parts, it seems you guys are getting ready for some of the best growth you've seen in a long, long time. And, the two-part question that I have for you is how do you think about your supply chain and manufacturing footprint to meet demand and meet growth over the next three, four or five years in North America? So that's part one. And part two, for the past decade, at least we didn't really have a lot of growth in North America structurally and in terms of your distribution channel, do you need - what do you need to do to optimize your distributors for this new growth environment? Do they need to be better capitalized? there has been some consolidation, do you need to continue or consolidating your dealers? So, part one manufacturing getting ready for this multi-year upturn and part two, what do you need to do on the distribution side? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Okay. This is Tom, I'll start maybe Lee can pile on with the manufacturing structure of the company. But we feel that we're well positioned to take advantage of this growth in one of our strengths historically is when there is a spike in demand our supply chain and the fact that we make-buy-sell local for local and our manufacturing footprint which is diversified around the world. Typically been more responsive than our competitors. And then what we've done with 3.0 and adding Kaizen, and so I stated with my opening comments when you links safety performance, Lean Kaizen in the high performance teams the structure how we run the various cells of value streams, you've got a very powerful combination as we do Kaizen we keep finding ways to free up capacity pre-up floor space, free up capacity in our equipment, we're able to do - what we call more simple automation category, which is uses the only free thing in life, which is gravity and if you saw these are gravity induced material handling things in some automation in the factories, has allowed us to be responsive to this demand. So, I think we're well positioned. Obviously, we're going to have to continue to invest, which we will we just found ways to do it more efficiently and Kaizen has been kind of great liberator for us to be able to do that. On the channel, the channel has been to your point, has been consolidating over the last number of years. I think it's better position than it's ever been to respond, we did see nice growth in distribution sequentially and our distributors are investing and some inventory for the future. And I think will be positioned to respond absolutely take share through them as well as through our OEMs going direct and we've got a great distribution team, our partners are strong, we've got a great distribution sales force, have been investing and application engineers and they're relying on us to be better on supply chain. And word [ph] we could continue to do better, but we have made quite a bit is on that. So I think both of those will be well our position to take advantage of this upturn.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you, Tom.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.
Scott Davis:
Hi, good morning everybody. Thanks for including me. Kind of fascinated by Slide nine. I know you've shown it before, but I don't think you guys have disclosed kind of the opportunity, difference between the electric vehicle and potential content versus ICE. Is there any way that you can quantify the opportunity for us?
Tom Williams:
Hello Scott. This is Tom. So, for competitive reasons and for sensitivities with customers, I won't get into the dollar content, which is why you heard me describe it in terms of just size versus ICE, a Ten-X build material. Our build material board is primarily almost exclusively all engineered materials. So, but then when you go down that list on the right-hand side of Slide nine. These are all engineered materials and this would be a combination of a pretty strong portfolio that we had before we did Lord but then Board added quite a bit to that. And really the combination we've got there is really given us a very attractive offering for customers and the debate is how fast it's going to grow and what percentage of total fleet will take over. But for us every time there's a new EV, it's an upside opportunity recognized as I mentioned as more growing 11% in the quarter towards the third Aerospace, so large Aerospace business is doing a little better than legacy Parker's because they have a pretty big exposure, but it's feeling pressure just like legacy is and for LORD as a whole to show a plus 11% to shows you the growth you got on the EV in EHV side.
Scott Davis:
Okay, fair enough. And what - just again, looking at Slide 13 and the discretionary cost versus that permanent, how do you think about this going forward, and kind of passed the middle of the year - will expenses kind of go back to pre-COVID levels, is that something that you guys are starting to model in or is there some sort of an improvement to discretionary that's even that almost becomes permanent, if you will like people will travel a little bit less or there's you find that you don't need to send 30 people do a trade show you can send 20. I mean, or is that in the numbers already and open any question, I guess, Tom?
Tom Williams:
Scott, this is Tom, I'll take that question. You're right on all accounts there, when we talked about this last year because the decline in volume came so quickly, we bought a number of levers on discretionary expenses. A lot of this was in response to the volume declines. Right. And we talked about our permanent actions in that eventually our permanent actions would right size the business we feel like we're there now, but we have found a new way to do business. Right. 'I don't think we will go back to the way we did things, travel, trade shows, those are all great examples. But there will be some right we're stopped - still trying to figure out what that is, but it will not be like it was before. So that will be essentially a change that will be structural going forward.
Scott Davis:
Okay, perfect. Good luck, and congrats guys. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Scott.
Operator:
And you have a question from Joel Tiss from BMO.
Joel Tiss:
I'm glad you started off with the safety talk. Tom, I've got my mask and my safety glasses on and I get all my shots and everything I'm ready for it.
Tom Williams:
Probably Joel, stay safe Joel, stay safe.
Joel Tiss:
Can you talk a little bit about the inventories in the channel and in Aerospace and just sort of maybe more generically how the industry is setting up for '22 and '23 like what are you hearing from your customers and your distributors and things like that?
Todd Leombruno:
Joel, this is Todd. So on distribution, we saw really nice improvement versus Q2 so distribution came in at plus two overall for the quarter versus a minus 6 in the prior period. So when 800 basis point improvement in distribution. We saw really good growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America, and that 15% to 20% range. EMEA was flat in North America, just slightly negative low-single digits. But, pretty much across all our distributors, we saw a combination of actual activity driving demand and then investing in inventory coming front. So I think the channel has turned from you know last quarter I talked about selective restocking, I think it's pretty much across the board, people planning for the future is an aerospace, we still need time, I think we're bouncing along the bottom there and we've sized the company to put operating margins in more now. We have the advantage of being very diversified in our segments between engines military, commercial helicopters, et cetera going down the line that's helped us quite a bit. We're about 50 50 on military and OE, so we're well positioned, but quite a question mark there is just what the trajectory be and how long do we bounce along the bottom, clearly, I think the military side will continue to be strong for us. It was strong this quarter and will continue to be strong going forward both we. And over on the right programs there. And then commercial side, will be all based on that we will be based on line rates from the OEMs, the airframers. And then on the MRO side for commercial it's all about air traffic shop business you see positives with airlines hiring pilots back and departure rates are improving and that will speak well to shop as done growth.
Joel Tiss:
All right. It's great. Thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Joel.
Operator:
And you have a question from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Hi, thanks. Hey, good morning guys. So I'll ask a multi-part one question. But really around free cash flow because that's been a great story for you guys as well. And so as we think about next year and the inflection that you're going to see in growth, how do we think about you having to build working capital within your own distribution and the impact that that could have on 2022 free cash flow margins. And then beyond that, like longer term, what's kind of like the right entitlement if margins are going to be going up longer term, what can free cash flow margin for quite long term for the company.
Todd Leombruno:
Hey, Joe. This is Todd. I'll take that question and thanks for noting our superb free cash flow. We are really proud about that. As you know, we don't guide on free cash flow. We're really happy with our results. There has been a step change. If you look back over time. I kind of alluded to that and in the slides there. It's really driven by our increased margin performance, but not only that I mentioned, our working capital. Our team really have put intense focus on this. And that's one of the areas that, that we really have improved with these recent acquisitions kind of bringing them into Parker type terms and Parker type policies. So we're not done with that. We still have room to go on that on every single one of those metrics. So we do see that improving. Will there be some pressure as growth comes, absolutely, but it will not adversely affect those numbers, we see a positive future for cash flow.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. Okay, thank you very much.
Operator:
And we have a question from Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
Todd Leombruno:
Good morning.
Nathan Jones:
I'd like to follow up on the aerospace side. Tom specifically on commercial aerospace and even more specifically on the aftermarket side, that's where you guys are going to see the pickup on the commercial side, but have you seen sequentially that get any better as we're really seeing the front end of air traffic start to pick up and if not, what's the typical kind of lag you see from when that recovery in air traffic starts to when you actually see the recovery of your aftermarket orders?
Todd Leombruno:
Yeah, Nathan, it's Todd. So sequentially and sales for commercial MRO. We saw a 13% improvement call from Q2 to Q3 and the lag is sometimes hard to predict, but the sequence of the increase in available seat-kilometers increase in departure rates drive shop visits to go up at some period of time after that, and that's always the hard part is depends on what the routes are in the cycles and particular engine, etcetera, but those will start to improve and they want to shop visits go up then. Our flow-through in the commercial MRO is going to happen. So I can't give you an exact lag because - but I would probably be wrong, but clearly. These are all positive signs being hired departure rates going up available seat-kilometers starting to at least stabilize and start to improve those will all speak the shop as it's going up and will drive higher content of MRO for us.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. And then on use of cash here, I think you guys had said once we get to about mid this year mid calendar year, you're going to be out of debt to pay off and obviously producing a lot of cash flow, can you talk about your approach to the M&A market now when we might expect to see you back into it and what the maturity of the pipeline looks like right now.
Todd Leombruno:
This is Todd again. So you're right, our serviceable debt will be paid off this quarter. So we'll enter FY '22 with no serviceable debt in our next payment corporate partner due to September calendar 22. So we have opportunities and wherever always described in the lessons learned from the financial crisis is to continuously work to financial pipeline. The myself just did reviews we do this all the time does it a monthly was presence and so this is something we stay on top of build those relationships. So the pipeline is active, but it's always a matter of finding a willing seller willing buyer. So it's activity necessarily always translate into actual properties in. But we're looking and certainly we're going to continue to buy companies with the same kinds of themes that you've seen before that either are immediately accretive or accretive within our synergy time period, they can help the growth rates of the company. Help margins, help cash flow and you'll continue to see it still consolidator choice. I think we're are still the best home this motion control properties, but we'll also look at the other areas that you've seen us build on in the last several years. And hopefully by now people feel good about our track record we've with the last three, got a lot of fanfare we've been good at this for a long-term, 80 deals last 20 years. And I think you'll see us to continue to be had upon that. First and foremost, for us dividend. We were very excited to clip that dollar mark on a quarterly basis and it and you'll see us stay on top of that. Our net income is going to grow and we're going to stay on top of those dividends to match that. That's income growth will continue to invest in the company organically in productivity and if we don't find the right properties which our preference would be to do deals because it drives cash and EBITDA growth. We think we're create investment and we'll buy shares on a discretionary basis top of 10b51. The pipeline is active and more to come on that.
Nathan Jones:
Great, thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
And you have a question from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.
Tom Williams:
Hello Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe first question around the sort of linked topics of cost inflation and component shortages and the sort of unifying factor of tight supply chains. I mean, I guess two parts, one is, do you think there is much evidence of sort of excess stocking up or accelerated stocking up by your customers or channel partners, given all the headlines around supply chain shortages. And then secondly, when you look at Parker itself. How comfortable do you feel on that pricing outlook to offset cost inflation pressures?
Lee Banks:
Julien, it's Lee. I was wait for somebody asked the question very material costs and pricing. I'm looking at a commodity chart right now, which has got trends year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter going back the last big inflation period. It's a sea of red, but the thing I would say about our team as we saw this coming early on as we did this. And as you know we've got really two great internal processes inside the company. It's how we track our PPI which our input cost and how we track our selling price index to make sure that we always maintain this margin neutral of kind of role. So, we've been active with price through the distribution channel and we'll continue to do that. We're fortunate to have great contracts in place with many OEMs that have raw material cost escalators in them. But, our goal on the whole pricing side is to be margin neutral. We've done that before; we'll continue to do that. On the supply chain side. I would say just echo what Tom said earlier, the biggest benefit is our business model. So we designed source make sell in the region for the region everything you read about in the paper. We're not immune to that. I mean there's still things that happen day-to-day basis, but I would just tell you from a company standpoint, it's not material. I mean we manage it day in and day out. So on pricing. I think we are active in a good place on the supply chain side, we're managing it the models set up. So I don't think we'll get hurt. And it's really not going to be a material.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you. And then, how about on your own sort of customers or channel partners. Do you see them kind of across the board doing any kind of accelerated stocking up because of the supply chain issues being so well publicized or do you think that the activity is kind of normal for what one would expect, as you see a macro inflection positive?
Lee Banks:
Listen, everybody is very, very busy right now, I would say, supply chain issues aside North America labor is very tight. I mean you read about that is a fact. So a lot of our customers are doing what we're doing. Just really using Kaizen automation where appropriate, et cetera. But I don't look, every time there's a ramp is a little bit of a bull with effect, but this is no different than anything I've seen in the past. It's just people trying to manage the increase in demand.
Julian Mitchell:
Great, thank you.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you. Thanks. Julien.
Operator:
And you have a question from John Inch from Gordon Haskett.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hey, maybe to pick up on some of the themes here, what are you seeing in terms of competitive behavior, particularly given the inflationary backdrop how our competitors jockeying jostling and how is that may be modifying your own behavior in this period of post-pandemic or emerging from post pandemic?
Lee Banks:
I think really the narrative right now. John is around supply. I think everybody's we're structured much differently than many of our competitors, so the issues that you read about every day, maybe you're not as imperative to us. But I think the narrative right now is around supply people were looking for continuity of supply, they can get it everybody understands. What's happening with commodity prices. So I don't really see any negative customer actions taking place. I will tell you is, and we've talked about this for years. This is always an inflection point for us where we tend to do better than the market as we come out of this. It's a combination of two things. We've done a lot of work with OE customers on design during the downturn as we're looking to simplify their designs take cost out. We do that through our application centers, we see the benefit of that as we ramp up. And then second, are our internal distribution systems are really poised to take advantage of disruptions with competitors.
John Inch:
Well, I was wondering you know like as prices go up and everybody is trying to raise in various aspects of their operations. Our competitor is one of the ways a competitor might instigated price tough to position themselves by not raising commensurately say compared with other people or other companies are players are we seeing any that kind of that behavior. Is it still a little bit too soon to tell?
Lee Banks:
I haven't seen that kind of behavior and I typically really don't see that for this kind of the cycle. You see more of that you see more of that John when you're at the bottom of the cycle and people trying to fill up factories.
John Inch:
Yeah, that makes sense. And then, Tom, you know simplified design as it becomes more ingrained as what's call it an operating, competitive advantage for Parker, do you think it to be used to perhaps offensively target companies for M&A picking up on the M&A theme. I was thinking you could maybe provide a bit of an arbitrage opportunity for safe partner to be able to go in and maybe even bid more you can drive more synergies and other bidders that going to have simplified design as part of their arsenal.
Tom Williams:
Hey, John. so clearly simple. And I would just say, everything that's in win 3.0 is part of our basket of goods that go into evaluating an acquisition. So we look at what the best practices are for the acquisition. This practice that we bring that combination of one plus one equals three generates the synergy plan. And that's the figure, the synergies which you're alluding to, was some of by design the opportunity you have to pay and we really look for is what's the synergized EBITDA multiple we're done. And is that something that makes sense given that where we're trading, the other part aside from acquisitions to get at believe was talking about was competitive dynamics simplify design is an opportunity for share gain as we come up with products that are similar to make that easier supply chains, more reliable et cetera. And maybe in some areas where we weren't don't currently have share allows us to penetrate in account overall got at 11%, 12% market share of this $35 billion space. We've got lots of room to grow so just one of many share gain opportunities.
John Inch:
Yeah, makes sense. Great, thank you, Raj.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, John.
Operator:
And you have a question from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.
Lee Banks:
Morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Hey, good morning. Thanks everyone. Hey, I guess two from me just thinking about this idea time of trying to break the gravitational pull of the PMI actually two questions, one just kind of maybe fundamental in the business and maybe a second kind of philosophical first obviously the PMI is a broad industrial benchmark. Have you considered that calling your segments Diversified Industrial just suggest UR in Industrial proxy perhaps some kind of different earnings presentation would make sense you give us global technology platforms, but we don't know anything about the profitability of those sub-segments? So that's more of a philosophical question. I wonder if you've thought about that. And then secondly, although most of your business is short cycle, right. I would argue, it's really a broad mix of early mid and late, and I think to some degree people confuse short with early, I just wonder if you could kind of give us some rough buckets, what percent of your business, you would actually characterize this early cycle versus mid cycle versus late cycle?
Tom Williams:
Okay. Jeff, it's Tom. So those are - it's a good question, hard one. First of all, the whole PMI gravitational pull that's one of the reasons, besides, I think it's just a great way to describe the company to what we did. Slide five. And that's, Steve, for those users now looking at your slides. That's the whole PMI versus our EPS trend and I hope you people got the point. This company is dramatically and have underlying dramatically different. And yes, we will never be completely detached from PMIs because obviously that represents total manufacturing activity and we will benefit from that, but we didn't get much help in that over the last six years, and you've seen us double EPS and as 600 basis points to EBITDA margins, so we will continue that and hopefully people recognize that we don't need the macros to help us. We have enough self-help with 2.0 3.0 to keep last for many, many years. The current environment is going to get better. So we are going to get some of the - your comment philosophically on reporting segments. Yes, that's been a raging internal debate for many, many years, there is pros and cons to it probably longer discussion than they can do on an earnings call, but we continue to think that represent the way we do today is the best way, because if you go back to those eight technologies and the fact that two-thirds of our revenue comes from customers at Viper technologies. That's exactly how we go to market. We don't go to market, specifically one off technologies, all the time we go to market if you look at our commercial teams leveraging that press technology, so that's how we're presenting the company to shareholders is exactly how we go to Mark Neville early versus mid versus late, I'm not even going to try to do that other than I'm going to reinforce your point, yes, we are a mixture and obviously you can look at Aerospace and characterize that as long, but where do you want to put EV you mean EV we're feeling that now, but the, a long-term change. It's going to happen, where do you want to put all the green technologies, I could add up all the things I've talked about and that one slide related to clean technology and you get a pretty significant percentage of the company. Obviously, hydrogens long very long cycle, what's happening there. Notifications still more near-term. So I think unfairly we've been characterized as early and maybe because I've just historically we pleased to report orders on a monthly basis and people could see those things sooner. I think we're a good mix and I think, hopefully over the last six years people recognize we're good where you want to invest money better on this team.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Great, thanks for that perspective.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
And you have a question from David Raso from Evercore ISI.
Tom Williams:
Good morning, David.
David Raso:
Curious, it seemed like the January price increases you put through were relatively modest, I think kind of where we were in the cost escalation moment if it made sense. But as the quarter has gone on and we look out to fiscal '22 I'm word [ph] connector group put out an increase, but you don't usually do a lot of increases for July 1, the setup here feels though more accommodative to you putting price increases through. So, two questions. Is it fair to say we should see a lot more mid-year price increases and we've seen in the past? And, second is the lead time issue significant enough where distributors who would normally want to get ahead of that increase are not able to, given the lead times I'm trying to get a sense of how much of the price increase, we could think about for '22 and sales, that kind of capture it versus maybe a little bit of a natural pre-buy that you see some times when you announce an increase?
Lee Banks:
Yes, David. It's Lee. I'll take that question. So I think it's fair to say you achieve mid-year price increases going after the distribution channels, not only in North America but globally, given where we are with input costs, et cetera. And I would say, by and large are probably pretty correct lead times that a lot of pre-buying while there are some, it's not, we would expect if the level of activity wasn't so strong as it is right now.
David Raso:
All right, terrific. Thank you very much.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, David. I know everyone's got a pretty packed schedule today. So Eline, we'll take one more question before we wrap up.
Operator:
Okay. The last question comes from Joshua Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Tom Williams:
Hello, Josh. How are you? We may have lost Josh. You go to the next one.
Operator:
We'll go to the next from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. I'm guessing Josh is speechless by the results. Thanks for fitting me in here. So look, I think that, I think, it is very good point on the early cycle points. The fact that you are still negative in two or three segments. I think it's sort of proof that you're not Category cycle. So I think that's an important point. I did want to go back to your comments about incremental margins between '22 and I know that that wasn't guidance, but if you could do 3% incremental margins with the temporary costs coming back and perhaps obviously inflation pretty rampant in the back half of the calendar year. I guess I'm going to ask is, do you think that there is a line of sight based on weighted today to hitting out there. It's an incremental margin for FY '22?
Tom Williams:
Hai Nigel, it's Tom. So you're right. We will or not a guidance discussion with '22, '22 is hard enough to do and we do it in August. But I think philosophically, our goal and what is best in class is to do a 30% a little. And, I think the evidence that we're going to do about 30% in Q4 even with the tough comps that we have with high, discretionary cost us that we did in Q4 a prior period are evidence that we can do that going into '22. We'll see when we pull the numbers together because it's Q4 is probably one of our tougher comparisons and it will in Q1 probably another tough comparison, but it will get progressively easier as we go through '22 comparisons, but I think a 30% is still on our radar. And, Q4 is good evidence that we can do it in Q4, we can do going forward.
Nigel Coe:
And then that - the question then, if you can do it in an environment like this, presumably FY '22 a mix isn't there'll be that helpful. I don't think in FY '22 but once Aerospace are kicking back into gear do you think 35% maybe plus could be a good run rate beyond FY '22?
Tom Williams:
I missed the word, what was before FY '22 there.
Nigel Coe:
I mean do you think that balance 30% could be a good number to use beyond FY '22?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, over the business cycle. What we've always told people is if you're modeling us over multi-years used 30% now, clearly and inflections we've done better than that. Down 40% to 50% range, but this isn't we're an inflection now is a little bit masked because the prior period the huge discussion why I gave a number, if you took that out of these 50. So typically go ahead pretty high up at the beginning 30% over the cycle, 10% later in the cycle. You're down into the '20s. But if you're modeling multi here I would use 30%.
Nigel Coe:
Okay, that's great, thanks.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Nigel. All right. That concludes our call today. I'd just like to thank everyone for joining us. As always, we appreciate your interest in Parker. Robin and Jeff will be here all day, if you have further questions or if you need clarification. I hope everyone has a great afternoon, and stay safe everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation Fiscal 2021 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Gigi, and welcome, everyone, to our earnings release webcast. This is Todd Leombruno, Chief Financial Officer. And joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's commentary and the slide presentation will be accessible as an on-demand webcast on our investor information website located phstock.com, and will remain available for one year. If you move to Slide 2, you'll see the Company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to any non-GAAP financial measure, is included in today's material and are also posted on our website at phstock.com. If you move to Slide 3, you'll see our agenda. We'll begin with Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing some strategic comments and highlights from our second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a more detailed review of our second quarter performance and review the components of our increase to guidance for the remainder of our fiscal year fiscal year '21. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call to questions from Tom, Lee or myself. And with that, Tom, I'll hand it off to you.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. Now before I move to Slide 4, I want to make a few opening comments. Calendar 2020 was an extremely difficult year to say the least, for all of us, both professionally and personally, and I hope all of you are staying safe. Our global team has come together like no other time in our history and has responded to this combination of a health and economic crisis. We've rallied around our purpose, in the Win Strategy, and we've showed that Parker is an exceptional performer even in the most difficult of environments. I'd like to take this opportunity beginning here to thank our global team for just great performance. And you're going to see evidence of that over the next couple of slides. If you go to Slide 4, one of our key competitive advantages our breadth of motion control technologies. We're now up to two-thirds of our revenue. You heard me talk about this as [indiscernible] 50%. We're now up to two-third of our revenue coms from customers who buy from four or more of these technologies. As these interconnected technologies that enable us to create even more value for our customers and create a distinct competitive advantage versus our competitors. If you move to Slide 5, we just had outstanding performance in the quarter when running through some of the highlights. Top quartile safety performance, we had a 23% reduction of recordable incidents. This now makes 75% reduction for the last five years, which has been phenomenal. Sales decline was 2.5% year-over-year. You can see it was a little over 6% from an organic standpoint. This was significantly better than our guidance and about a 50%-plus improvement from where we were in Q1. Q2 was a record net income at $447 million. The EBITDA margin was a little over 23% as reported or 20.8% adjusted. You can see the significant improvement versus prior 230 basis points. Year-to-date, cash flow from operations was a record at 20.4% of sales. And then the table to bottom there has got segment operating margin both as reported and adjusted basis, I'd call your attention to the adjusted row, 20.4% segment operating margin adjusted. And again, a giant increase versus prior, plus 250 basis points. So, there's a lot of numbers on this page. We have a lot of companies to track. So, the easy way to remember this is just the quarter we put up 320s. And we happen to highlight that in gold. So, greater than 20% EBITDA margin, CFA margin and segment ARPU volume. So, we're pretty proud of that, and those are all great results during a pandemic, so just a fantastic job on the whole team. If you go to Slide 6, we're going to talk about cash flow. Big cash flow quarter, paid down $767 million of debt in the quarter. If you look at the last 14 months, it's $2.8 billion of debt. This is a little over half of the acquisition that we took on with lower excise, which is great progress there. You see the ratios in the middle of the page there. Of significance, if we go back a year ago, we were 4.0 and now we're at 2.7% on a gross debt-to-EBITDA basis. And we've now reinstated effective in this quarter of Q3, our 10b5-1 share repurchase program. So, I'll move to the next slide, which is our transformation of the Company. And hopefully, just the last two slides are indicative of how the Company is transformed. But I'd like to give a little more color and context as to what we're doing. So if you move to Slide 8. This is our strategy summary on a page, and it's flanked on the left side with why we win, which you've heard me talk about this in the past, this is a list of our competitive advantages, and I've highlighted them. So, I'm not going to talk about them this earlier today. But there are historical success factors that will continue on into the future. I want to focus most of the time for my next couple of slides on where we're going. And I've got a slide on each one of these bullets. And the output of really this historical success factors and where we're going is that we want to be a top quartile company, and we want to stand out in the crowd, and we think we're doing that. So if you go to Slide 9. The one strategy and this is 3.0. This is our business system. Pound for pound, this has been the most impactful change we've made to-date to the Win Strategy. And it's going to be Win 3.0 in our purpose statement. They're going to be the powerhouse behind our future performance. Go to 10. You've seen our purpose statement, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. This is a statement that everybody has really rallied around. It found very expirational within the Company, has enabled everyone to connect their efforts to this higher calling, this higher purpose of life. And really it helps answer the question, how can we help through our customers, create a better tomorrow. And I think given what's going on with the coronavirus and the vaccine, Slide 11, is probably a great highlight of our purpose and action and just how essential we are to the vaccine value chain. And the way to read this slide to go left to right and go in a clockwise fashion was turning upper left-hand corner. So, we're in a development and production phase of these vaccines, mixing, purification, filtration and dispensing. Then you got to get the product moved around. So, we are in sterile transfer containers, especially designed. And then all of our motion control technologies are in both air and ground transportation to move the product around the world. We need to be able to store it locally and that requires low-temperature refrigeration, how our refrigeration technologies are in play there. Then when you administer to the patient, again, you need on-premise refrigeration, and then stoppers and trim seals as part of our engineered materials offering. So we're very proud to be part of this value chain, and through our customers helping to create the better tomorrow than all of us, as I start this call are striving for as we try to exit the pandemic and deliver billions of vaccines to people around the world over the next quarters and years. So if you move to Slide 12. My last slide for my opening comments, want to focus on our strategies to grow faster in the market. And our proxy for the market is global industrial production growth, which is skipping that acronym. So on the left-hand side, it's a series of portfolio of things that you've seen us make transforming a portfolio of the Company buying three great companies, $3 billion of acquired revenue that were all accretive on growth, cash and margins. As a matter of fact, as an example, LORD grew mid-single digits last quarter, while the rest of the Company, total company grew minus 6%. On the right-hand side, there is a list of organic growth strategies. And what's interesting about this list with the exception of international distribution, these are all new with Win Strategy 3.0. So, I'm going to make a quick comment on each one. So strategic positioning is really our effort to focus on stronger divisional strategies. And we have a cadence with every division. We do three a month, and these are extremely productive conversations with our general managers to how they're going to position their division to win versus the competition. Second, both in our innovation, we made two big changes. One is a metric PBI, which is product vitality index. It's a measure of new products as a percent of sales, looking at a five-year period for new product blueprinting, which is that NPP, acronym there, is really a change to our ideation process to create better ideas coming into the innovation funnel. The output of what we're trying to do here is that we want our PBI context a percent of sales, to grow by 600 basis points over the next five years, a more innovative portfolio, better chances to grow, better margins, et cetera. And then simplify design. I've talked a lot about that. It's a speed initiative. It's a cost initiative. It's a customer experience initiative. It's a recognition that 70% of your costs are tied up in how you design a product. And simple by design is all about focusing on design excellence. So when you put together design excellence with operational excellence, it's a dynamic pairing. International distribution is going to continue from the success we've had with 2.0. Digital leadership is really a four-pronged attack, digital customer experience, digital products, digital operations and digital productivity, and digital productivities where we have a concerted effort on artificial intelligence and debt analytics. And then lastly, a new our annual cash incentive plan acronym, ACIP, and that's going to focus our divisions and the whole company on driving growth cash and earnings. So, it's this combination. And it's this combination that's helped us performed better on the top line organically, particularly in the current downturn, and it will be our catapult to growing fast in the market as we go forward. So with that, I'm going to hand it back to Todd with more details for the quarter.
Todd Leombruno:
Thanks, Tom. I'd like to direct everyone to Slide 14, and I'll just begin summarizing our strong second quarter results. This slide displays as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter and I'll focus on adjusted earnings per share. We generated $3.44 this quarter, and that compares to $2.98 last year. If you look at the breakdown of the adjustments for the FY '21 as reported numbers, it netted to $0.03 this quarter. And that is made up in the following bucket. Business realignment expenses of $0.14, integration cost to achieve of $0.02; acquisition-related amortization expense of $0.62; and as we communicated last quarter, we are adjusting out the gain on the sale of land that amounted to $0.77. And all in, the net tax impact of all of those adjustments is $0.02. Last year, our second quarter earnings per share were adjusted by $1.41. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. If you move to Slide 15, this is just a walk from the $2.98 to $3.44 for the quarter, and despite organic sales declining 6% and total sales declining 2.5%, adjusted segment operating income increased by $70 million or $0.11. That equated to $0.42 per share. So a very strong operating beat for the quarter. Decremental margins on a year over basis are favorable, demonstrating the excellent operational execution, robust cost containment by our team members really in every segment and every region. If you continue on the slide, we had a slight headwind from higher corporate G&A, just $0.02 that was a result of market-based adjustments to investment tied to deferred comp. And as Tom mentioned, our strong cash flow allowed us to pay off a significant portion of debt on a year-over-year basis that reduced our interest expense that equated to $0.12 for the quarter. And then, if you look at the remaining items, other expense was just $0.01 slightly higher. We had a higher effective tax rate that impacted us by $0.03. And finally, slightly higher diluted shares resulted in a $0.02 impact, that's how we get to the $3.44. If you move to Slide 16, this is a savings from our cost out actions. I know there's been a lot of questions on this, just from some of the early reports. Just a reminder, these represent savings recognized in the year as a result of our discretionary actions in response to the pandemic and volume declines, plus the savings we realized from our permanent reliant actions taken in FY '20 and also in FY '21. So if you look at this, our second quarter discretionary savings exceeded our forecast and now amount to $190 million on a year-to-date basis. We are now forecasting for the full year that discretionary total will increase to $225 million or an increase of $50 million. The majority of that increase was recognized in the second quarter and roughly amounts to $35 million above our forecast. Just a reminder, as demand continues to increase and our team's pivot to support growth, we expect these discretionary savings to be lower in the second half. Permanent actions remain on track. There's no changes to what we have communicated previously. Our full year forecast will generate savings of $250 million, and that will be $210 million incremental. And we believe that this will help us generate the strong incremental margin that we have in our guide for the second half. If we move to Slide 17, this is just a walk of the total results for the Company, sales and segment operating margin. And as Tom mentioned, organic sales did decline by 6.1% this year. The decline was partially offset by the contributions from acquisitions, that was 2.6%. And currency impact of 1%. And again, despite these lower sales, total adjusted segment operating margins improved to 20.4% versus 17.9% last year. This 250 basis point improvement reflects all the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives, the hard work and dedication to cost containment and productivity improvements as well as savings from those realignment activities I just spoke of and really performance of the recent acquisition, so strong execution really across the entire the Company to get these results. If we jump into the segments, if you go to Slide 18, looking at diversified industrial North America, sales there declined by 5.9%, acquisitions were a plus of 3.1% and currency only slightly negatively impacted sales. But again, even with these lower sales, our operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis increased sizably to 21.3%. Last year, it was 18.2%. So again, another impressive 310 basis point improvement focused on our long-term initiatives around Win Strategy, along with the productivity improvements, diligent cost containment actions and really some increased synergies we're seeing out of the LORD acquisition. So if we go to the next slide, Slide 19, for Diversified Industrial International. Organic sales for the quarter increased by 3.1%, acquisitions added 3.2% and currency accounted for 3.5%, again, strong operating performance here. For the quarter, we reached 20.3% of sales versus 16% in the prior year. And again, same story, Win Strategy initiatives, strong synergy growth and really our teams around the world rally together in light of the pandemic. If we go to Slide 20 and talk about Aerospace Systems Segment, and again, what we'll see here is a decline of 20.9% for the quarter, acquisitions helped us by 0.4%. And again, a small currency impact of 0.1%. Really, declines in the commercial businesses, both in the OEM and aftermarket end markets were the main impact. These were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and military aftermarket sales. Operating margins for the second quarter was 18% versus last year's 20.2%. This resulted in a decremental margin of 28.8%, which is in line with our expectations and really the result of all the previous actions we've taken to realign the aerospace business to current market conditions, along with strong cost controls and really helping to offset the pandemic composed of a mix that we're seeing from the commercial and military businesses. Slide 21 is just some highlights on cash flow. Tom already mentioned this, but our operating cash flow activities increased 64% year-over-year to a record of $1.35 billion of cash. This is an impressive 20.4% of sales. Our global teams are really focused on this, very disciplined in managing our working capital across the world, and we're really focused on delivering strong cash flow generation. If you look at free cash flow, year-to-date, we now move to 19%. That's an increase of 78% versus prior year, and our cash flow conversion is now 1.64% versus 130% last year, so just strong cash flow performance from the team, very impressive results. If we wanted to just focus on orders real quick, moving to Slide 22, our orders came in at flat this year or this quarter, I should say, and that was really driven by plus-one in our industrial North American businesses, plus 10 in our diversified industrial businesses and minus 18 on a 12-month basis in aerospace. So all in, we came in flat. And that's the first time in seven quarters I believe that members have been not negative. If we move to Slide 23 and the guidance, obviously, we have a pretty large guidance increase. We are now providing this on an as-reported and an adjusted basis. And based on the strong performance we just spoke of in the first half, all the current indicators that we see right now, we've increased our total outlook for sales to a year-over-year increase of 1.7 at the midpoint. This includes a forecasted organic decline of 3.4%, offset by increases from acquisitions of 2.9% and currency of 2.2%. And again, just a reminder, we've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates based on the quarter ending December 30, and we held those rates steady as we look through the second half of our fiscal year. In respect to margins, for adjusted operating margins by segment, at the midpoint, we are now forecasting to increase margins 150 basis points year-over-year, and that range is expected to be 20.2% to 20.4% for the full year. And if you note for items below segment operating income, there is a fairly significant difference between the as-reported estimate of 3 88, and the adjusted forecast of 4 87. The difference is that land sale that we spoke about, that's $101 million pretax, $76 million after tax. That was recognized as other income in Q2. And since that's an unusual onetime item, we are going to adjust that from -- we have adjusted that from our results. Full year effective tax rate, no change, we still expect that to be 23%. And for the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as-reported basis is now $11.90 to $12.40 or $12.15 at the midpoint. And on an adjusted per share basis, the range is now $13.65 to $14.15 or $13.9 at the midpoint. Adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance at a pretax level, include business realignment expenses of approximately $60 million for the year associated with savings projected from those actions to be $50 million in the current year. And acquisition and integration costs to achieve $50 million of expense. Synergy savings for the LORD acquisition are now projected to reach $100 million. That is an increase of $20 million from our prior stated numbers of $80 million, and that is included in our guidance. Exotic synergies remain and expected to be $2 million for the full year. Just a reminder, acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense is forecasted to be $322 million for the year and some assumptions that we have baked into the guidance here. At the midpoint, our sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half. And both adjusted segment operating income and adjusted EPS is split 47% first half, 53% second half. For the third quarter of FY '21, we are forecasting adjusted earnings per share to be $3.54 at the midpoint. And that excludes $0.57 or $97 million of acquisition-related amortization expense, the business realignment expense and integration costs to achieve for the quarter. So if you look at -- move to Slide 24, this is really just a walk from our previous guide to our revised guide. We had guided at $12 per share last quarter, based on the strong second quarter performance, we exceeded our estimates by $1.06. And we mentioned this, but the improving demand environment, along with the strong operational performance. Some additional extended discretionary savings, the permanent restructuring savings and increased LORD synergies, we feel confident in raising our forecasted margins, which adds $0.85 of segment operating income over the next two quarters for the remainder of the fiscal year. So the majority of this increase is based on operational performance. This calculates to an estimated incremental margin of 41% for the second half. And then some other minor adjustments to the below segment operating income lines are a negative impact of $0.01. And that's a net of interest expense income tax. So that's how we get to the $13.90. That is approximately a 16% increase from our prior guide. So, if I can direct you to Slide 25, I'll turn it back over to Tom for some comments.
Todd Leombruno:
Thank you, Todd. And just want to wrap things up with these great results don't happen by accident. They're driven by a highly engaged global team. Our focus on safety, high-performance team is Lean and Kaizen, is driving an ownership culture within the Company and its resulting in top quartile engagement as well as top quartile results. We talked about the portfolio. It's a big competitive advantage of us at interconnectivity, a transformation on the three acquisitions and the fact that they're outgrowing and generating more cash and margins than legacy Parker. Our performance over the cycle, but I would just reflect in the last five years and just use round numbers, our margins or up 500 basis points. In a five-year period of time, it was not necessarily the easiest five-year period of time for industrial companies. And then our one Win Strategy, at 3.0, in particular, and the purpose statement, are going to be the powerhouse behind exerting our performance into the future. So, I give my thanks to everybody for all their hard work and the great results. And to you, Jane, I will hand it back to you for start the Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie:
Congratulations on a fantastic quarter. Maybe just kind of just starting off. Tom, obviously, it seems like things are kind of coming off the bottom of here, you're starting to see some improvement in the order trends in your industrial businesses, both domestically and internationally. Can you maybe just like walk us through exactly like what you saw -- what you're currently seeing and what you saw kind of transpire as the quarter went on?
Tom Williams:
Sure. On the orders Joe, we saw if you look at total Parker from minus 12% to zero, North America to minus 11 to plus 1; International from minus 4 to plus 10, and then Aerospace get improved from minus 25 to minus 18. Pretty much North America and International improved throughout the whole quarter. And from our view, it looks like Aerospace is finding bottom. International piece, in particular, if you look at that plus 10, that was EMEA, plus 7; Asia, plus 13 and Latin America plus 27. So pretty strong rebound across all of the particular regions internationally. When I look at some of the higher level sub-segments, so the major buckets outside of Aerospace. Distribution get better I was minus 14 the prior quarter to minus six this quarter. Industrial, things are stationary, went from minus 7 to plus 1.5. And mobile saw the biggest improvement from minus 13 to plus 2.5. So, we saw all the sub-segments improved nicely with the largest recovery being at mobile. And when you look at our end markets in the four phases of growth, we have roughly about 30% of our end markets are in accelerating growth and about two-thirds are in decelerating in decline. So we continue to move all the various end markets into either bottoming out. And you saw our decline starting to turn for accelerating growth. And maybe I'll pause to, I don't know if you want me to go through all the end markets, but that's the color we saw. In distribution, we saw an entity, which was encouraging. Our distributors, I would say, cautiously optimistic. They are being careful. There is some uncertainty, obviously, in the next six months. And what we're seeing from distribution is selective restocking, in particular, focusing on those longer lead time type of products that they can get ahead of demand and position themselves to take share, which we're happy to help them with that. And in general, what we're seeing from distribution, in some cases, with some of the OEMs is placing a little larger stock orders with scheduled releases over the next several quarters, which are all indicators of people I think trying to plan as a few things are turning and start to get ahead of things.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes. That's super helpful and great to hear, Tom. If I -- can I just ask one follow-up question and really just focusing on like the sustainability of margin improvement going forward. Clearly, you've got a lot of long-term actions within the Win Strategy that are going to help. But I really want to focus on the temporary cost actions that are benefiting FY '21 to roughly $225 million. How should we think about that beyond 2021? Are you -- is that going to be a headwind beyond this year? Or are there other actions that you can take to mitigate some of those expenses coming back?
Todd Leombruno:
Joe, this is Todd. I'll take that one. I mean some of these things are volume related. So as volume continues to come back. We expect some of those costs to come back into the business. But really, what we saw in the second quarter was a lot of productivity improvements. This has been based on our focus on Kaizen for a long time. Many elements of our Win Strategy initiatives have helped drive that. But there's been strict cost containment by our teams really around the globe. What did surprise us a little bit was lower travel and lower discretionary expenses. That's why we increased the discretionary expenses for the remainder of the year just based on the current situation that we see in the world right now, but we do see that returning. Nowhere will it go back to the levels that we've seen in the past, but we do see it going up from where we're at now.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Can we start with just looking at the 3Q outlook, what's baked in at the midpoint with respect to organic growth? And if there's any big change or divergence in the incremental margins you're expecting in 3Q relative to 4Q?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Nicole, this is Tom. So if I take the top line and maybe to help with the guide for the full year. So, we reduced the guide on decline on organic for minus 7.5% to minus 3.5%. But I think what's probably the most interest to analysts and shareholders, is what do we think the second half is going to be. So the second half, our assumptions in the guide is North America and International, both in that kind of that 6% to 7% positive organic growth. And Aerospace at around minus 11% for the second half. When we look at Q3, I'm going to focus on the top, and I'll come back to the decrementals and incrementals. In Q3, we're going to see a slight improvement in the industrial portion of the Company, about 100 basis points as there's still some uncertainty. And those orders I referred to earlier on, have scheduled releases are going out multiple quarters. We see Aerospace about the same as we had in Q2. And when we get to Q4, we've got North America in that upper teens, International of around plus 10% and aerospace getting to flat and that puts total Parker in Q4 in the low teens for Q4. So again, Industrials for the second half, that plus 6% to 7% range and Aerospace at minus 11%, so when we think about the margin side of things, Q3 margins are going to be slightly less than Q2. And that's mainly from the reasons that Todd was describing, we're going to have less discretionary savings in Q2 than we had in Q3. Q3 is going to be around $25 million, and Q2 was $65 million. So you got $40 million less of discretionary savings going into Q3. We'll still have a favorable MROs, and then people aren't familiar with what that term is that's basically you have less sales and you get more earnings. So you can't really calculate an incremental, but it's favorable. And when we get to Q4, we've got approximate 30% MROS. I would just make the comment for Q4, really for the first half of FY '22, that the incremental MROS are going to be a tough comp for us. So the plus 30 this is, again, remember in Q4 prior period, we had the gargantuan discretionary cost out, all the big wage reductions at that time. If you were to make it like-for-like and take out discretionary actions from both periods, this would be greater than 60% incremental. And so, it's -- the business is performing at a very high level, you'll see margins get a little better into Q4. That will be our highest margin quarter. And if you just look at for the second half, we go from 20.1%. That's the first half total company to $20.7 million in the second half, so continued improvement and we're not going to stop there. Obviously, our goal is to keep driving this as we go into FY '22.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. That's super helpful. And then maybe just as a follow-up, can you just talk about any impact you into production, supply chain with respect to COVID and the level of confidence you have as a result in ramping as this recovery does take place?
Tom Williams:
Nicole, it's Tom again. When we look at COVID and its impact, we're mirroring case rates in the local communities that we're at. We've done a great job of, I would say, almost exclusively, our case is originated from outside of work. And we've tried to take the position. We won't be able to be safe at home and save our work. But we like them to be the safest possible they could be when they're at work. We're not immune to absenteeism, type of things related to this. But it's not been a material impact to us. We've been able to keep up with demand, keep up with our lead times. And if you look at us historically, obviously, a pandemic is a unique phenomena, but we have periods of increased demand, we outservice our competitors. It's something we've proven time in and time out. I would look for us to have the opportunity to take share because our lead times and our customer experience will be better than our competitors. So I feel very good. And on the supply chain side, we purposely laid out a strategy years ago to be local for local. So we make buy and sell in the region for the region. So that supply chain strategy, that operational strategy allows us to be very flexible based on what's happening, do not have all our eggs in one basket in one particular region, not to be overly exposed on trade tariffs and those type of things. So, we feel very good about where we are in supply chain.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis from Melius Research. Your line is now open.
Scott Davis:
And I don't say this very often, but congrats on a great not just a couple of quarters, but great the last two or three years, has been just phenomenal. Impressive, but anyways, I want to talk a little bit about M&A because you've been so successful in that front, which is not -- perhaps not something folks would have expected out of Parker in the old days, you're going to be down to 2.5 turns of debt, as you said, this year. And are you ready to reload on the M&A front? Do you have an interesting backlog at all that you want to talk about?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Scott, first of all, this is Tom. Thank you for your comment and the recognition of progress it doesn't go unnoticed, and we do appreciate that. On the M&A side, what's been interesting and we're really happy about the cash flow and the ability to pay down debt is clearly ahead of schedule. And we're going to be in a position to come into this fiscal year, where all of our service with debt, the term loans and the CP that we took out with these acquisitions will be all paid off. And our next corporate bond is not due to September of '22, and it's a nominal amount of $300 million. So, we are going to be in a position with a much stronger balance sheet to look at capital deployment across all the veins. Now in particular, you talked about M&A. So the lesson learned for us historically, is to never stop working the M&A pipeline. And so we're continuing to build those relationships. We are building those relationships with across a couple of big themes. We want to be the consolidated choice within our space. We think we are the best -- we're the leader in the space, we think we're the best home, which means we'd like to be looking at anything within our space. In particular, though, if we only had a certain amount of money and all eight of the technologies that I referred to earlier on roll on the table, we like to focus on filtration, engineered materials, instrumentation and aerospace. We think those -- you've seen us focus on those to date. But I would tell you, we saw us do with the last three deals, buy companies that within very quickly or within a reasonable period of time and with synergies. Can outgrow, can outpace margins, can outpace cash flow for the base business, and that's what we did, and that's going to be the flavor you're going to see as we go forward. And if we don't find the right properties, we think we're a great investment, and we're going to invest in Parker and buy our shares.
Scott Davis:
Makes sense, Tom. Can you talk a little bit about how when you do a deal, how do you integrate it? I mean, how do you bring or how do you bring Win into an asset? Do you come in with all the tools? Do you come in with Lean first? Or is there some sort of a -- or is it case by case? Is there a playbook? I don't think I've ever heard you guys talk about that. I'm just kind of curious.
Tom Williams:
It's a good question. There's obviously, there's lessons learned that we've learned over the years and how to organize the project management office, what you're going to do on day 1. And there's really two big kind of veins that you're looking at looking at all the integration tasks, those basic tasks of putting the businesses together and then your synergy task. We've learned to make sure you've got a dedicated integration team and you put the best and prides people and those various leadership positions, put a great integration manager. But the key thing to remember is we're buying great companies. And they're bringing good things to us, and we're trying to bring good things to them as we become one team, and it's the concept of one plus one equals three. So we're going to take the best of the acquisition and the best of Parker. And obviously, we work the Win Strategy. But we do give some latitude within the respective acquisitions to how they want to implement the Win Strategy. There's no -- it's not an option that you're going to implement it, but we give them latitude as to how they want to phase it in because, obviously, certain parts might be more applicable faster for respective acquisitions. We have a real robust cadence as far as review. And frankly, I think we've gotten pretty good at this and something we want to keep doing.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Yes. Great quarter, great free cash flow conversion as well. Just a couple of questions for me. The first one, you sort of talked about your dealers still being cautious. I mean if you look at our channel checks, if you look what are the publicly traded hydraulics companies or the ones that are still hydraulic companies, sort of talk about what they are seeing in the channel, they just sound a bit more optimistic relative to what you guys are saying and sort of our channel checks, I think, a bit more optimistic on outlook as well. Just trying to understand, is it market-based conservatism? Or are your dealers are more conservative, your channel just knows something that we just don't see across the industry.
Tom Williams:
Well, you're probably referring to one of our neighbors, and they would be much more heavy mobile than stationary and distribution. And we're not a hydraulics company. We're diversified industrial companies. So that's a big difference.
Andrew Obin:
But I'm also talking about a small competitor down in Florida, I guess.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Well, our discovers still feel good but part of what they're doing is placing orders, making scheduled releases over the next couple of quarters. Now we still think that if I look at going into Q3, that we're going to go from a minus 6% to getting to probably flat on North America and EMEA, and we'll be probably in that upper teens when you look at Asia Pacific. Then when you get to Q4, we'll be very strong in North America and EMEA, probably around that plus 10%. And now China has a tough comp in that Q4 because if you remember, that's when they rebounded on the pandemic, so they're probably going to be flat on distribution. But our distributors still feel very good. And when we look at distribution for the whole second half, it will end up being a nice positive.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. Second question, you sort of talked about China, and I think we've been sort of talking about hydraulics competition emerging out of China for the past 20 years. But it does seem that we finally are at a point where you are sort of seeing Chinese competitors, and particularly the fact that China is leading recovery this time around. How do you see competition in China from the local competitors this time around? And then in this upturn, how different is that? And then also some of them are talking about getting into industrial applications now, even though probably you have a bigger moat there. But just how do you think about Chinese competition coming out of this downturn in the next cycle?
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom again. That's been a question really for a while now. And I really don't see it much different coming out of this than it was when we went into it. Just as a reflection, China for us grew about 10% last quarter. So we did quite well in China, Asia Pacific overall grew about 7%. And the way we win in China is we're in China with the same or better cost structure because we have a nice density of plants in China and a very robust supply chain in China. And we have the breadth of our technology. So when we go to compete. And again, that's a distinguishing characteristic that we have around the world. We're not just competing as a Chinese fitting company or a Chinese host company, we can put the whole portfolio technology to get in that discussion with the customer, they can't beat us when we're having a discussion around cost of ownership or the weight of the product or reliability, the ease of assembly, all those type of things that you can do when you're a multi-technology. And obviously, these multi technologies are interconnected or not disparate technologies or interconnected technologies that create a big value proposition for customers. So that's been -- we can beat them on a cost because we're there. We're at the same cost structure or better, and we have a better basket to sell more products to customers.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
My question is on Aerospace, but if you could clarify first. Were you saying the fourth quarter, the fiscal fourth quarter Aerospace organic sales flat? I just want to make sure I heard that correctly?
Tom Williams:
Yes, David. This is Tom, flat to prior year.
David Raso:
And I'm not asking for '21 guidance, but can you take us through your thoughts on how you see the cadence of the Aerospace recovery and? Obviously, make color also how you think about M&A in the space as well? So I'm trying to tie those two together and give us a little lay of the land, if you're already at flat in calendar 2Q, fiscal 4Q, how are you thinking of the slope from there?
Tom Williams:
Yes. David, it's Tom again. So we like this space. This is all of our motion control technologies going into things that fly. We're going to things that fly because there are stationary and things that have wheels under them. And the way we look at Aerospace is that we have its size to win in the current climate. The current climate is finding bottom, and it's going to be a slow turn coming back up. But my view over the next several years is going to gradually show improvement. Now what is that pace of improvement? I think it's going to mirror the pace of vaccine deliveries and the comfort that travelers feel. And I think you'll see resident -- personal travel come back much more aggressively. The business travel will come back, but we'll probably plateau at a certain level based on just the efficiencies of digital tools. But we're positioned to win right now with the kind of op margins in this current climate, and it's only going to get better going forward. So with respect to M&A, I actually think this is a good time to look at M&A in the Aerospace arena, depending on the right property and direct pricing, obviously. But I think the future is bright. Now it's going to be -- it's a long-cycle business, so it will turn slower than industrial turn would be. But again, if you're positioned to win now and you're going to have a gradual upturn, it speaks to nice incrementals and nice positive year-over-year changes for you over the next several years.
David Raso:
Yes. I'm just trying to balance the dance that doesn't go on with the stock, right? The traditional crowd that looks at the ISM and says, hey, this is fantastic right now. How much better can it get? While the compounded crowd looks at your cash flow, the deleveraging and say, look, we can definitely move the ball forward here. This is not just an old ISM play. And the timing of the M&A, I think it's important to balance that -- those two crowds. And not to get inside your M&A department here, but when you listed those four categories, can you just give us some sense of -- if you had your druthers, identical kind of assets, when you think of where you're positioned, your size, the competitive landscape and then obviously, how you view the cycle playing out. Of those, I mean would you prioritize them at all between filtration and engineered materials, filtration in Aerospace?
Tom Williams:
I probably won't prioritize not to disappoint you being big and the answer, but we like all those properties. But I will come back to the very first thing and this is -- what I always remind the Board and I'll remind shareholders. We want to be the consolidated choice within our space. So those8 motion control technologies that, I believe, was on Slide 4, is the space we play in it. And we have a big advantage that we're not disparate pieces of businesses. With now two-third of this revenue comes from people that buy from these -- all these technologies for four or more, we like all those technologies. I think the thing you're going to see us look for is -- and the theme that you've seen with the last three deals is within a period of time depending on the synergies, they're going to be growth accretive, margin accretive and cash accretive. And that's a different strategy, I think, for the Company. Our tendency, we would prefer to buy things that are not ultra small. But if you just look at the histogram of the targets, it's more in the midsized category just because of the lay of the land. There's fewer of these really super large targets that you can look at. We will look at them, obviously. When I say midsize, what's changed for us versus the past is our mid-size is now bigger. A midsized target for us would be envisioned an exotic like deal, which, historically, would have been the largest deal in the history of the Company for LORD and CLARCOR. So our appetite is there. If I could go back, David, to a comment you made about the ism, which I thought was a thoughtful comment. The power of this portfolio, besides being interconnected, is that the cycle is somewhat balance each other. So yes, we will see some near term, and we'll see how long near-term turns out to be on the industrial portion of the Company that's going to have much more robust macro conditions. But then following that, the Aerospace business is going to start to be healing. And I think sequentially, that those time periods are going to be complementary to each other. The other part is that this five-year period that I envision going forward, is going to be, I think, much easier for industrial companies in the last five-year period because we went through two industrial recessions and a pandemic. I'm not going on wood here. I guess it's possible to have that happen again. But the odds are low that it would repeat. So I think it's a much better time. And we have enough self-help for all those people that I'd like you to encourage. We are no longer a short-cycle bet. We are bet over the cycle. And we have all kinds of room once Win Strategy 3.0 just started. And those FY '23 targets are not an endpoint. They're a mild market we're going to blow past.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Baird. Your line is now open.
Mircea Dobre:
And maybe just to kind of pick up on this topic here. Tom, you've spent a better part of last year of sort of showcasing how the business is performing different than it has in prior downturns, right? Or entering an upturn, and I'm curious to get your perspective as to how this next upturn might be different than what we have seen historically?
Tom Williams:
Well, I think it's always hard to predict one cycle versus I think you will continue to see us perform very well on converting on the incremental side. Just I would caution people incrementals for Q4 this year and for the first half of next year are going to be tough comps. We're going to try to flatten the field when we give you the results. So you'll be able to see the real incrementals of the Company. But I think you would expect to see us north of 40% in the first couple of quarters and we glide down in the 30s. But we're going to be in a much -- that stair-step slide that I've showed for the last couple of quarters. Our intention is to keep raising the ceiling and raising the floor. So, this next ceiling, this next cycle, our expectation is going to be higher the last ceiling. We're doing it right now. This isn't even really a necessarily good period right now, and we're breaking records on margins. So I'm bullish because there's a lot of positive factors. If you just look at interest rates and what's happening with global industrial production forecast. In my view, of pent-up need for CapEx, given that there's been two industrial recessions in the last number of years, and Aerospace cycle that will follow an industrial cycle that you get the benefit of those not being right on top of each other, and just a tremendous amount of self help. A lot of what you've seen has propelled these margins to date as prior period restructuring in Win Strategy 2.0. Win Strategy 3.0, and I mentioned not just being biased because I'm a part author, but it's better than 2.0, hands down, and you've only seen about a year of that in play. And so 3.0 is going to get -- has tremendous legs. So we have still a portfolio of self-help. And the big thing is that we're back in the capital deployment gain. So it will be a steady diet of dividends, share repurchase and acquisitions. And obviously, that formula we're going to raise. I can assure all the shareholders listening. There will be a Q4 increase to the dividend. We're not going to break our track record. And then we'll continue to do what we've always done is look at the acquisitions purchase, share repurchase and try to make the best decision of happy shareholders for what is the best long-term return for them.
Mircea Dobre:
And perhaps, you're going to want to punt on this, but you're pretty close to your stated fiscal '23 targets. At what point do we expect an update to this? And I'm also curious as to how you're thinking about free cash flow margin here. I mean, even taking out the working capital benefit that you had year-to-date, free cash flow margin is quite impressive. How sustainable do you think this is, especially as perhaps we need to see a little more working capital coming back into the business? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
So Mig, I'll start on the '23 targets. I'm going to let Todd take the free cash flow one. You're right, I am going to punt. But hopefully, you recognize we've not hesitated to change these. So we've gone from -- I'm just going to use segment operating margin. We've gone from 15% to 17% to 19% and now 21%. So, we've not hesitated to update it. We just want to prove for several quarters that we're close or at it. And once we do that, we'll be prepared to give you a better vision of that. And I'll let Todd talk about free cash flow.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Mig, you're right. Our cash flow has been really impressive. And like I said, it's really the work of our global team, really focusing very quickly on working capital management. We know there's going to be some pressure on working capital as growth returns to the business. So we're well aware of that. But as Tom said, we've basically had a step change here. Our margins are a different profile than they used to be, and that obviously feeds the free cash flow. So we think historically, we're going to be better than we've been historically, and we're positive on that going forward.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe from Wolfe. Your line is now open.
Nigel Coe:
And great job. You make it look easy, but I know it's not, so well done. So we're pretty deep into the Q&A here. We haven't had the end market roll down. So it'd be remiss not to do that, but just one clarification, the lag on distribution -- distributor orders versus -- sorry, versus OE. A little bit surprised with that. Is that normal at this point in the cycle as we turned back up? Or is this a quirk of this pandemic?
Tom Williams:
Nigel, it's Tom. No, it's very normal. Mobile tends to lead, which is doing now and then industrial and then follow-up disputes. Remember, the distribution, well, we'll service some small to medium-sized OEMs is primarily the aftermarket. And so that tends to lag a hair after you see a sharp return, which is what you're seeing with some of the other end markets. And I will spin you through the end markets quickly. And I'm going to break it into the buckets like I've historically done. I'm starting with the positive end markets. The greater than 10%, this is for the total company was semiconductor, life science, power generation, agriculture, refrigeration, aerospace military OEM and aerospace military MRO. On the positive high single digits was automotive, positive low single digits was construction, heavy-duty truck. And then on the declining markets, they've got four buckets
Nigel Coe:
Great. That's wonderful. And then just on the margins between International and North America. We now have very close conversions between these margins. Is that really a function of the recovery profile mix perhaps? Or are we in a situation now where these margins going forward are going to be very comparable.
Todd Leombruno:
Yes, Nigel, we worked with this for many, many, many years to get those margins comparable, and I really give credit to our international team. They've made great progress. So, we're not where we want to be. We still have plans to move it forward, but we see those margins. There's no reason why those margins can't be similar.
Tom Williams:
Gigi, I think we have time for maybe one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just following up on asked a question from earlier, just on PMIP. So I guess is there anything in the business today, Tom, that you're seeing that would that would say that the PMI is maybe not indicative of where the business and your recovery, your customers are in recovery, like maybe things don't feel quite as far along as they normally would with like a 60 PMI, whether it's inventory levels, which we sort of talked about or just the types of end market leadership, anything that would make you feel like maybe this has kind of some longer legs to it than you would normally see at this point?
Tom Williams:
Josh, this is Tom. I still think that you'll see relatively this similar correlation feared to plot our orders historically against PMI is anywhere from a three to six month lag. I think that pandemic has the potential to maybe influence that a little bit, we'll just have to see as that plays through. But I would just characterize, I feel better about this next several years and I do about what happened in the last six years of leasing my time leading the Company. Because I just think about, we went through a natural resource recession, we went to the most current recession and we had the pandemic. And so, I think there is a need for industrial and infrastructure type of activities. I think Aerospace will return longer-term. So I just think there's a better -- potentially more stable macro environment the next couple of years.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And I agree with that. And I guess just kind of related to that, all the while bringing up the segment operating margins within striking distance of your target even with an arrow still on its back. At what point does gross margin become a limiter and you need to find yourself mixing higher on that front because the distance between the two is narrower than we see in most of our coverage. So at what point does that I mean, more differentiated growth or M&A mix like what you had with the word exotic? Just any observation you would make on what it takes to get to the steps beyond?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Josh. Again, it's Tom. One clarification, our gross margin might look different than you compare to other companies because we embed a fair amount of SG&A and/or our cost of goods sold. So our gross part has some of that in there versus other people might be booking their SG&A in different categories. But your question is stepping higher levels really. Can margins continue to grow higher? It absolutely can. If you look at what I was referring to earlier on about early days of Win Strategy 3.0 and all the initiatives we have underneath there, I feel very good about our potential there and just very strong legs and where the future can hold. You can put that in place maybe a little macro-environment, yes, you can have little more [indiscernible] leverage. And then we're coming into a period of time where we have a stronger balance sheet, so we can put that to work as well. So what I've told people before, maybe I'll close on this. If you like what's happened in the last six years in the environment we had with basically no macro help, the next several years are going to be fantastic.
Tom Williams:
All right, everyone. This concludes the Q&A portion of our earnings call. We appreciate all your comments. And as always, thank you for your interest in Parker. Rob and Jeff are going to be available throughout the day and if anyone needs any follow-ups. We thank you again, and everyone stays safe. Thanks.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation Fiscal 2021 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, Sonia. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our teleconference this morning. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for a year following today's call. On Slide 2, you'll find the company's safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on Slide 3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing a few comments and some highlights from the first quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a more detailed review of our first quarter performance, together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2021. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. We plan to end the call at the top of the hour. Please refer now to Slide 4, and Tom will get us started.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. I hope that you, your family and your friends are all safe and healthy. So before I go through the quarter results, I wanted to highlight Slide 4, which is really our strategic positioning slide on one page. It's how we create value for our customers, our shareholders and our people. And I'm going to highlight some of these through the course of my remarks in the opening slides here. But really, the output of all these differentiators is really that last bullet. It enables us to be great generators and deployers of cash over the cycle, which is a proven strength of ours that has only gotten better over the years. This list is what sets us apart. It is what enables us to be a top-quartile company. Hopefully, a company that you'll want to be a shareholder of. If you go to Slide 5. This is one of those competitive differentiators, which is the breadth of our technologies. This is a portfolio of 8-motion control technologies that are all interconnected and complementary to each other. It's how we bring value to customers. It's how we solve problems for our customers. Our customers see the value in it, too. It has 60% of our revenue comes from customers who buy from 4 or more of these technologies. So if you go to Slide 6, we'll talk about the quarter. It was an outstanding quarter, great results really in the face of unprecedented times. And a big thank you goes out to our entire global team for all their hard work, dedication and the great results here. So starting with the first bullet, something that we take great pride in. We are a top-quartile safety performance company. In addition to that, we continue to reduce recordable injuries and incidents by 31%. Sales declined 3%. Organic decline was 13% year-over-year, but that showed nice improvement versus the prior quarter, which was a 21% decline. So we are pleased to see the progress there. EBITDA margin was 19.5% as reported or 20.1% adjusted. That makes two quarters in a row that we've been greater than 20% EBITDA margins we're excited about, and it was 100 basis point improvement versus the prior year. We did a great job on debt reduction. We paid down debt in the quarter of $557 million. And our cash flow from operations was just an outstanding level at 22.8%. So I call your attention to a little table at the bottom of the page. And go to that last row, the total segment operating margin adjusted row. See, we came in at 19.9% for the quarter. That was 110 basis point improvement versus the prior year. Our decrementals were just terrific. If you look at our decrementals on an adjusted basis with acquisitions, they were favorable, meaning that we had less sales and we had more income versus the prior year. On a legacy basis, so Parker without acquisitions, again on an adjusted basis, was a 14% decremental. Just great results by the operating team. So if we go to Slide 7. The deleveraging progress has been just dynamite. You can see we paid down $2 billion worth of debt in the last 11 months. We've now paid off 37% of the LORD and Exotic transaction debt. And you can see the multiples, whether it's on a gross basis or on a net basis, we continue to make nice progress reducing those leverage multiples. So we're very proud of that. Moving to Slide 8. These outstanding results are really underpinned by a couple of factors versus the prior period restructuring that we've done, The Win Strategy and the performance enhancements that it's driving and the speed and agility of our pandemic response. And just for clarification, when you look at these numbers, these are cost-out actions that represent the savings that are recognized in the year as a result of our pandemic response. The incremental amount is footnoted at the bottom of this page. That was $210 million year-over-year incremental. But the big thing that I want to make a point on this page is the shift to more permanent reductions. And while we didn't put it on here -- we didn't put Q4. But if you go back and look at your Q4 notes, we were 90% discretionary, 10% permanent. This quarter, Q1, we are now 30% permanent and moving to a full year of 60% permanent. If you just go to that full year section of the page and looking at FY '21, see $175 million discretionary. It's a little bit less than what we showed you last quarter, primarily because our volume is better, and we didn't need to and act as many of those discretionary type of actions. Most of our wage reductions have been restored to normal effective October 1, with some minor exceptions in countries where those government support supplementary income or short work weeks, which we've continued. Permanent actions stayed the same at $250 million, and we're right on track to deliver that. And really, I think this bodes well when you look at the shift to more permanent actions for the remainder of FY '21, it sets us up very nicely for FY '22. So if we go to the next slide, we talk about our transformation. And clearly, I'm going to show you a couple of numbers here. Hopefully, you're going to believe the company is definitely transformed. And we'll talk about how, and we'll talk about more importantly where we're going to go in the future. Next page is on the how portion of it. It's been a combination of portfolio of things we've done as well as just sheer performance improvements. And on the performance side, it all starts with the Parker business system, which is The Win Strategy; and two major updates that we've made that you're familiar with, which is really propelling our performance. We simplified the organization from a structure standpoint. And we acquired three outstanding companies that were accretive on growth, margins and cash flow. And they're performing very well during the pandemic. And I think the best evidence, which is the slide you've seen before is on Slide 11, which is the transformation across the last 5 manufacturing sessions on how we've been raising the floor operating margin. We wanted to put this slide in again because we've updated it based on the latest adjustments, where we include deal-related amortization in our adjustments. And we did that through all the prior periods. So the reported in change, that's in gray, and gold is the adjusted. And you can see that the improvement now is even more pronounced, 1,100 basis points over this period of time. Just dramatic improvement. And obviously, we intend to keep moving in this direction. If you go to Slide 12. We're going to talk more about the future now and where we're going. And it's going to be all around Win Strategy 3.0, which we just recently changed in our purpose statement, which is in that blue box then at the bottom. Both of these changes have created excitement within the company and an inspiration from our people on that higher purpose that we're all trying to live up to. Slide 13, where I'm going to spend a little bit of time going through 3.0 to give you a little more context and color as to why we think our future performance is going to continue to accelerate. I'm going to make a comment on each one of these. So start with simplification. You've seen what we've done on structural things, and organization design work continues. Simplification is going to expand into more 80/20 and Simple by Design. And of course, you're all familiar with 80/20. For us, it's still early days with lots of upside. The Simple by Design is the realization that 70% of your cost is tied up in how you design the product. And what we want for our company is design excellence and operating excellence. We want both of those things. And the way you get design excellence is through Simple by Design. It's going to have 3 major buckets that's going to be a complexity assessment of our existing and new designs. We're going to use 4 guiding principles on how we design products. We're going to design with forward thinking. We're going to design to reduce how we use material. We're going to design to reuse things that we use across the company. We're going to design the flow. And we're going to enable all this with the use of AI, which is going to allow our engineers to be able to do these things in a much faster and knowledgeable fashion. Second bullet is innovation. In our stage gate process, we call internally Winovation. So that's taking an idea to launch for a new product. And we're making three changes there. One is in metrics, and that's called PVI, product vitality index, another new metric for most of you be familiar with this. It's the percent of revenue that comes from new products and things that we've launched and commercialized over the last five years. We're holding people accountable to that, and we're seeing nice progress. We've also included two key process changes. One is new product blueprinting, which is an outside-in orientation for engineers. So it's spending more time with customers and end users to understand their pain points and their needs so that we design and develop better products to solve those. And of course, Simple by Design is embedded into the new Winovation as well. Third bullet is digital leadership. Now we put this on there before the pandemic but, of course, with the pandemic, this is even more important. We've got 4 big areas that when we say digital leadership, we mean 4 things
Todd Leombruno:
Yes. Good morning, everyone. First of all, I just want to say congratulations to Cathy on a wonderful 33-year career with Parker-Hannifin. There are so many people across the company that have you to thank for all you've done for the company, and that includes me. We worked so closely and so well together for so many years. I want to personally thank you on behalf of the Parker finance and accounting community for all you've done and for me personally as well. So we wish you nothing but the best in retirement. And we look forward to hearing all about your retirement and ventures, and we will stay close. So congratulations, and thank you very much. Tom and Lee, thank you for your confidence and your support in me for many, many years. I couldn't be more humbled and appreciative for this opportunity. We have a fantastic global team, and we are committed to delivering top-quartile performance and continuing the transformation of the company. Couldn't be happier. And for the investment community, Tom already mentioned this, but I still remember many of you from my time in Investor Relations. I look forward to reconnecting and also seeing some new faces very soon. Thanks.
Thomas Williams:
So thank you, Todd. But Cathy is not retiring yet. We're putting her to work, and I'm going to turn it back to Cathy for details on the quarter.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, Tom and Todd. I'd like you to now refer to Slide 17, and I'll summarize the first quarter financial results. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter. Current year adjusted earnings per share of $3.07 compares to the $3.05 last year, an increase despite lower sales. Adjustments from the fiscal 2021 as reported results netted to $0.60, including business realignment expenses of $0.12; integration costs to achieve of $0.03; and acquisition-related amortization of $0.63, offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.18. Prior year first quarter earnings per share were adjusted by a net $0.45, the details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. On Slide 18, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $3.05 for the first quarter of fiscal 2020 to $3.07 for the first quarter of this year. Despite organic sales declining 13% and total sales dropping 3%, adjusted segment operating income increased the equivalent of $0.09 per share or $16 million. Decremental margins on a year-over-year basis were favorable, demonstrating excellent cost containment and productivity by our teams. In addition, we realized an $0.08 increase from lower corporate G&A as a result of salary reductions taken during the quarter and tight cost controls on discretionary spending. Other income was $0.14 lower in the current year because the prior year included higher investment income and gains on several small real estate sales. Moving to Slide 19, we show total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Organic sales decreased 13% year-over-year. This decline was partially offset by favorable acquisition impact of 9.1% and currency impact of 0.8%. Despite declining sales, total adjusted segment operating margin improved to 19.9% versus 18.8% last year. This 110 basis point improvement reflects positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives and the hard work and dedication to cost containment and productivity improvements by our teams. Moving to Slide 20. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales were down 14.1%, and currency negatively impacted sales 0.3%. These were partially offset by an 8.5% benefit from acquisitions. Even with lower sales, operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was an impressive 21.0% of sales versus 19.4% last year. This impressive favorable incremental margin reflects the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 21. Organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 7.3%. This was offset by contributions from acquisitions of 9.1% and currency of 2.9%. Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis increased to 19.2% of sales versus 17.0% in the prior year, an impressive incremental margin of 66.5%. The teams continue to work on controlling costs and utilizing the tools of our Win Strategy. I'll now move to Slide 22 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic sales decreased 20.1% for the first quarter partially offset by acquisitions, contributing 10.8%. Significant declines in the commercial businesses, both OEM and aftermarket, were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and military aftermarket. The diversity of our aerospace portfolio, which includes business jets, general aviation and helicopters, is providing some additional balance against the current market pressures. Operating margin for the first quarter was 18.1% of sales versus 20.4% in the prior year for a decremental margin of 43.5%. Realigning the businesses to current market conditions and strong cost controls are helping to offset the less profitable mix imposed by the pandemic and the lower volumes. On Slide 23, we report cash flow from operating activities. Cash flow from operating activities increased 64% to a first quarter record of $737 million and an impressive 22.8% of sales. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 21.5%. And with a drop in net income of just $17 million, the free cash flow conversion from net income jumped to 216%. This compares to a conversion rate of 118% last year. The teams remain very focused and effective in managing their working capital and consistently generating great cash flow. Moving to Slide 24, we show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 12% as of the quarter ending September. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 11% within Diversified Industrial North America, minus 4% within Diversified Industrial International and minus 25% within Aerospace Systems orders. Just a reminder that we report the Aerospace Systems orders on a 12-month rolling average. Looking ahead, the updated full year earnings guidance for fiscal year '21 is outlined on Slide 25. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Based on our current indicators, we have revised our outlook for total sales for the year to a year-over-year decline of 3.5% at the midpoint. This includes an estimated organic decline of 7.3%, offset by increases from acquisitions of 2.8% and currency of 1%. This calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended September 30, 2020, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year '21. Please note our revised guide does not forecast any additional demand pressure caused by further shutdowns as a result of a second wave of increasing COVID infections. You can see the forecasted as-reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are now forecasted to increase 30 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating adjusted margins in a range of 19.0% to 19.4% for the full fiscal year. For the below-the-line items, please note a significant difference between the as-reported estimate of $400 million versus the adjusted estimate of $500 million. In October, as a subsequent event to the quarter, we reached a gain on the sale of real estate of $101 million pretax or $76 million after tax that will be recognized as other income. Since this is an unusual onetime item, we plan to remove this gain as an adjustment to our adjusted earnings per share. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as-reported basis is now $9.93 to $10.53 or $10.23 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $11.70 to $12.30 or $12 even at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance at a pretax level include business realignment expenses of approximately $60 million for the full year fiscal '21. Savings from current year and prior year business realignment actions are projected to result in $210 million in incremental savings in fiscal year '21. Also included in the adjustments to the as-reported forecasts are integration costs to achieve of $18 million. Synergy savings for LORD are projected to be an additional $40 million, getting to a run rate of $80 million by the end of the year. And for Exotic, we anticipate a run rate of $2 million savings by the end of the year. Acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expense is forecasted to be $322 million for the year. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2021 guidance at the midpoint are sales are now divided 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is split 46% first half and 54% second half. Adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 45%-55%. Second quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.38 at the midpoint. And this excludes $0.63 or $106 million of projected acquisition-related amortization expense, business realignment expenses and integration costs to achieve, offset in part by the gain on real estate of $0.59 or $101 million. On Slide 26, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of the revised fiscal year 2021 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $12 even at the midpoint compared to the prior guidance of $10.30. The teams outperformed our original estimates, beating the first quarter's guidance by $0.92. With this performance and our continuing efforts to control costs, we are raising our estimated margins, which will in turn generate $0.81 of additional segment operating income over the next 3 quarters. This calculates to an estimated decremental margin of 11.4% for the year. Other minor adjustments to below operating income line items reduces our estimate by a net $0.03. All in, this leaves $12 even adjusted earnings per share at the midpoint for our current guide for fiscal '21. If you'll now go to Slide 27, I'll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. So the portfolio, our motion control technologies, gives us a clear competitive advantage versus our competitors. We continue to transform it with the three acquisitions, and we really feel strongly with the Win Strategy 3.0 in our purpose statement that our best days are ahead of us. And with that, I'll hand it over to Sonia to start the Q&A.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Nice quarter. I guess just first question, on the aerospace side, you narrowed the guide -- sorry, you raised the top line a little relative to before in the margins. But Tom, any view on how you're thinking about the recovery out of the commercial business? And how we think about the correlation between global aircraft miles flown or revenue passenger miles? Like should we expect a greater lag than usual in terms of how we think about Parker's pickup versus those 2 items? And then obviously, the margin performance was very strong in the quarter. I guess you'll attribute that to Win. But were there any sort of anomalies or price, cost or mix or anything else that was sort of viewed as favorable to the margin performance in the quarter?
Thomas Williams:
Okay. Jamie, it's Tom. I'll come back to the margins. I'll start with aerospace. So when we look at aerospace, we think, again, this is just our initial look, is that it will bottom out next quarter for us. But when you look at the components for our full year forecast to the 4 major segments, I'll go one at a time here. Commercial OEM, we've got in the guide assuming a 25% to 30% reduction. And that's basically using the current production rates that our customers have given us times are bill of material. Military OEM will be low single digits, which seems reasonable with the F-35 and the F135 engine tied to that. Commercial MRO, which is one of the questions you're asking, we have at a minus 35% to 40%. And that compares to -- we were at minus 40% in the last quarter. So we see a little bit of improvement there but not significant improvement. Available seat kilometers are currently around 55%. And that's not unusual to see our MRO run a little bit better than available seat kilometers. Airline departures are supportive of that kind of forecast that we've given you out there. And then on the military MRO side, we've got positive mid-single digits, really being supported by fleet upgrades and trying to extend service life of some of the older military aircraft and then the mission-critical 80 -- or MC80 initiative were to make sure the fleet is 80% ready to go. And all those things, we think -- so we still feel good about this forecast. I would tell you, one of the things we like about aerospace is we've been very aggressive on our cost to us. We've taken 25% of our people out, unfortunately, given the conditions. And we are in a position from a margin standpoint and a return on assets, it's a very attractive business for us. And longer run, this will be a longer return. And it bottoms in Q2 and starts to turn for our second half. Over the next several years, with the cost structure we have in place, it will be a very attractive business for us, almost just showed nice gradual growth before it eventually gets back to where it was, which will obviously take time. Margins for Q1. In general, obviously, you're right, it's the Win Strategy is 2.0 and now 3.0. It's all that restructuring we've done in the past, et cetera. But I do think we had the advantage in Q1. We're pretty much at our run rate on the permanent savings actions because we came out of the gate very aggressive on the permanent restructuring. And then we also still had the peak discretionary actions that we were able to have in Q1. And with restoring salaries, that will come down. So I think that was part of what helped Q1. But when we look at margins, if you compare our first half to second half, we're going to still show a nice improvement in our second half with this guide versus the first half. And like I said in my closing comments, our best days are ahead of us both on the top line and on margins.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Just like to start with the top line guide. Cathy, you said you're intending or you're planning for that to split 48-52, which I think is what it typically splits for you every year and kind of the way that you typically guide at this point in the year, which also then implies that you don't really see any fundamental sequential improvement in the businesses. Is that the way you've gone about framing this guidance? And if we do see the economy gradually get better as we go through the rest of the year, would that tend to suggest that maybe your second half of '21 guidance could be a little bit better than where you're at the moment?
Thomas Williams:
So Nathan, this is Tom. Maybe I'll start. So part of what we looked at, when we looked at improving the organic guide from minus 11% to minus 7.5%, was that we looked at our Q2 it being very similar to Q1. The industrial piece, maybe a little better; aerospace, a little worse, as I mentioned, bottoming up. Then we'll see Q3 get better and Q4 be a positive -- or forecast for our Q4 is positive high single digits. When you look at the second half as a whole, we'll have industrial up -- just I'm combining North America and international, has a positive low single digits, aerospace around a minus 12%. So we get to flat because of the aerospace being negative. I think part of what we're looking at with Q2 and Q3 is just understanding, well, we have a lot of positive trends with order entry, PMIs moving in the right direction and markets moving to more of a decelerating decline -- or shifting to more accelerating decline. It works, so they're not decelerating. But the realization that there's risk in the next 2 quarters tied to the virus activity -- and we're not assuming that it's getting any worse, but I think there's a fair amount of uncertainty as we go into Q2 and Q3, which is the winter part for most of the world. And you've got COVID and the flu season together, which creates a bit of an unknown. So we still are very positive. But we think it's going to -- the next 2 quarters will be a little bit of a slower sequential. There are still better quarters in the top line that we'd guided to just last quarter. So we are reflecting that improvement. We were just a little bit, I think, realistic as far as what's going on.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Then on free cash flow, obviously, very good conversion and a lot of free cash flow this quarter. That's going to be typical when you're seeing declining revenue as you liquidate your own working capital. As we get later in the year and you're starting to look at more actual year-over-year growth, how are you thinking about free cash flow and free cash flow conversion for the full year based on the guidance that you've provided for the top line here?
Catherine Suever:
Yes. Nathan, this is Cathy. I'm glad you asked. We had a tremendous first quarter, and a lot of that came from managing the working capital, as you suggest. I do not anticipate that it will continue at the pace that we saw in the first quarter as the working capital will be -- there will be more need, for example, for inventory. And then payables will also have an impact in receivables. So yes, it will slow down. We still confidently believe we'll be at over 100% conversion each quarter and for the year. It was a great start to the year and will remain above that 100% conversion, but it won't continue at the pace that we were able to enjoy this quarter.
Nathan Jones:
But you think it will be over 100% each quarter for the year?
Catherine Suever:
Yes. I do.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Well, congratulations, Cathy. And congratulations, and welcome back, Todd. I'll pass it on.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
And our next question comes from John Inch of Gordon Haskett.
John Inch:
Congratulations, Cathy. Great to see that. And Tom, I wouldn't worry about the coronavirus. Joe Biden is going to defeat the virus anyway.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, John.
John Inch:
$64,000 question in industry is like when does -- when the economy normalizes, is CapEx, not OpEx but CapEx, likely to prospectively come back? And if so, how do you see the landscape across the multiplicity of your end markets in terms of customers' predisposition to spend CapEx? And obviously, I would leave out commercial aerospace and oil and gas because we know those are pretty challenged. But it kind of is a framework to even understanding where the verticals operating, Tom and Lee, kind of close that, if not even above pre-COVID levels. You have a lot of visibility into that, and we don't have the same kind of visibility. So if you could share your thoughts, that would be great.
Thomas Williams:
So John, it's Tom. I think what you're getting at is what does the future hold. And obviously, CapEx is a key ingredient to potentially driving more industrial activity. And when we get through FY '21, we're going to characterize FY '21 -- we have 2 quarters where I think there's still a fair amount of uncertainty, Q2, Q3. Q4, we have an easy pandemic comparison. But by then, I think we will have had -- we will round the corner. But I'm very optimistic about FY '22, so really for everybody else in the second half of the calendar year '21 and beyond. There's low interest rates. There's fiscal stimulus that's in place and maybe more might come. The vaccine will be there. Air travel is going to slowly resume. Our order entry by then will have turned positive. The end markets are going to continue to shift and will shift it into accelerating growth. Our forecast for global industrial production growth, which is a good indicator of CapEx spending, is positive. And you couple what I would characterize as a much better industrial environment with our own growth initiatives, and I'm pretty optimistic on what the number of years look like. The way I would look at it, John, Lee and I since we took our jobs, we faced 2 recessions together and a pandemic. And so it can't be any worse than that. And all indicators that this is a much better environment. And I do think CapEx and people making more strategic longer-term investments will come back more into play, which -- and that will just add to it.
John Inch:
Yes. I think that makes a lot of sense. You called out 80/20 as part of your framework. Just in the spirit of another 80/20 company, ITW has been probably realizing and targeting some share gains to try and take the offense. Do you envision opportunities for Parker for share gains across your businesses and perhaps because, say, smaller players have pulled back? Or conversely, I guess, have -- there've been tougher competitors emerge, let's say, in China, for instance?
Thomas Williams:
Absolutely, John. It's Tom again. We think that there's a big opportunity there, and we track that now. That's part of our quarterly cadence. We have all the commercial leaders present top accounts' share in the prior quarter or share of the next quarter. And it's going to be able to a multitude of things, and a lot of it's on the Win Strategy. It starts with creating a great customer experience for our customers. That's the first thing you got to do to grow. And then we think with Winovation, Simple by Design and all the other things that we're doing, we have an opportunity to take share. We have obviously gotten stronger through this, and we think we can take advantage of that. Our service capabilities have gotten better. We've acquired companies that are growing faster than -- and we were doing extremely well, and they're adding to our offering to customers and creating more value when we go to them. So yes, I do think there's a sheer shift here opportunity.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Jeff Sprague of Vertical Research.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Congrats to Cathy. Two from me, if I could. First, just on the margins, Tom, a couple of questions around that, but I was hoping you could just help us a little bit more understand the cadence. It does appear that on similar revenues, you've got a step-down in Q2. I get you don't have quite as much discretionary actions, but it seems like there's still a lot of positivity flowing through. And the year guide is below kind of what you did in Q1, right, as revenues are expected to build as the year progresses. So understand you might want a little dose of conservatism going into the winter here. But is there really something going on, mix or otherwise, that we should think about to kind of understand that margin profile?
Thomas Williams:
So Jeff, it's Tom. A couple of comments. The implied change from Q1 to Q2 is a pretty normal sequential shift that we have. If you go back and look at our Q1 and Q2 over the years, it's pretty much in the same neck of the woods. Yes, you are right, in Q1, we had the benefit of all the permanent actions because we were pretty much at our permanent actual run rate, and we had almost all the discretionary actions. So that was a big opportunity. But I would just -- the guide right now is still 30 basis points better than last year. And if I look at just the first half, second half, we go from 18.5% -- I'm talking about the total company now, 18.5% to 19.8% in the second half. So we see an improvement. And obviously, Q4 will be better than Q1. So the improvement is there. We do have a little bit of mix headwind as mobile, if you look at our end markets that have come back. This is not unusual. Mobile has come back faster than any other end market, and that's lower margins. But these are still fantastic numbers for us to be in this kind of environment. And to be putting up a full year at 19.2%, we're pretty proud of that.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I know the absolute numbers are solid. Just trying to understand the pattern. And then second, just on channel. Did you actually see a normalization of channel inventories? Or where are we in that progress? And what do you see distributors doing here as you look forward the next couple of quarters?
Thomas Williams:
Yes. So Jeff, it's Tom. And I'll start, and Lee can add on. So we thought that what we saw it looks like through the quarter, destocking has pretty much run its course and that we are anticipating sequential improvement distribution. And that when we look at the whole second half, distribution global would be positive. Obviously, especially in Q4. We have a little bit of softness still in Q3. But for a full side half, it will be positive. Asia will be positive for both Q3 and Q4. And I think distribution will be a little bit careful in Q2. Most of them are calendar year -- fiscal year companies. I think they'll just be a little bit careful as far as what they do as they go into the end of their fiscal year so they won't get too ahead of themselves as far as restocking. But I do think as they go into the second half that they'll look to probably strategically restock some things. Lee, I don't know if you have anything?
Lee Banks:
No. I've got nothing else to add other than the sentiment, by and large, is positive.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.
Nigel Coe:
Obviously, congratulations to Cathy and Todd. So I'd like to just kind of explore some of the end-market dynamics. You usually give some pretty good details on sort of the puts and takes. So I'd just love to know where you're seeing sort of Phase 3, Phase 4 maybe even Phase 1 in the end markets.
Thomas Williams:
Okay. Nigel, I'll give you the spend through the markets for everybody. Maybe I'll start at the higher levels, if you want the short version. This is by -- what we would call subsegments, and these are all organic numbers. Total company, minus 13%; minus 20% in aerospace; distribution was minus 14%; industrial, as a whole, the whole grouping was minus 7%; and mobile was minus 13%. If I take it into a depth below that, and I'll give you just various buckets. The positive end markets, and this would be all greater than 10% positive, was semiconductor, life science, aerospace, military OEM and aerospace military MRO; positive growth high single digits was power generation and rail. We had one market that was neutral. That was refrigeration. The remaining markets were declining, and I'll give you those in the various segments. Low single-digit decline was telecom and ag, high single-digit decline was automotive. In that 10% to 20% decline was distribution mills, foundries, construction, heavy-duty truck, automotive and marine. And that 20% to 30% decline in machine tools, tires, mining, forestry, material handling. And then greater than 30% decline was oil and gas, aerospace, commercial OE and aerospace commercial MRO. And then, Nigel, just on those -- the phases -- the 4 phases, I would just highlight the big shift. If you look at the last quarter, we had 90% of our end markets, so all those end markets I just talked about, 90% of them said an accelerating decline, which you would expect, even where we were. And now we have 84% of them in decel or a decline, which is a good sign. That's the first sign of healing. You got to go into that, what we call Phase 4. You saw a decline, and you have the opportunity to move into Phase 1, which is accelerating growth. So that's the spin to the markets.
Nigel Coe:
Yes. Tom, that's great color as always. And then it looks like you're going to be at an EBITDA margin kind of circa 20% for this year. Your long-term target is -- well, 19%, 20% probably on my math, but your long-term target 2023 is 21%. So I'm just wondering if you see opportunities to exceed that target? I mean what does this year imply? Basically, the trough of the cycle, 20%-type margin, what does that mean for margins going forward?
Thomas Williams:
So Nigel, it's Tom again. So yes, we're proud of that. We're excited. We won't change those targets yet. We'd like to do them for a full year or at least get close to doing a full year before we do that. But clearly, we're performing better at a faster pace than we had anticipated. And those targets are all pretty fresh. We just want to update them at IR Day, which is just March. And to your point, we're doing this in not the best of times. So I think this is an indicator. Those were always goalposts. They were not an end destination. So we have lots of room to grow. And I'm hoping my page on 3.0, which was kind of the Readers Digest of IR Day, gives you indicators that we think there's a lot of gas in the tank here. But we won't change those until we get a little closer and we've demonstrated doing them more sustainability -- more sustainable fashion. But yes, we are pleased with the progress, and we are going to beat those numbers.
Operator:
And our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore.
David Raso:
Really two quick questions, if you don't mind. The margins for the rest of the year appear to be sort of flat 9 months over 9 months. And I can understand aerospace is down a lot. But even the industrial businesses, you don't really have the margins up much year-over-year. And I do appreciate some of the cost savings are a little less dramatic than we just saw in the first quarter. But when you highlight distribution as maybe ready to restock a little bit or definitely improve to some degree, is there something else about the mix or something we're missing about price/cost that would not allow the margins to improve much industrially? I think when you strip out the A and just do it old-school EBIT, you really don't have the North American margins much up at all, maybe 20 bps year-over-year and international only up 50 bps when it was just up 150 bps. So I just want to make sure I'm not missing something. And the second question is simply with the deleveraging pace going this quickly, when do you expect to be able to lean forward and think about the M&A market a little bit or however you want to choose to use the balance sheet? And if it is M&A, just a little lay of the land, kind of what you're seeing on pricing and so forth.
Thomas Williams:
So David, it's Tom. So I'll give you guys a little more color because the margins are doing quite well. If I just compare the second half of '21 to second half of '20, and I'll give it to you by segment. 20.5% for North America versus 19.8% in prior period. 19.0% in international versus 18.3%. So very nice improvement and then 19.5% aerospace versus 20.6%. So obviously, aerospace feeling more pressure. And we end up at 19.8% versus the 19.5%. So the margins are improving. We do have, as I mentioned earlier, a little bit of a mix headwind with more mobile, and that's very typical the beginning of a upturn. The mobile end markets speed up faster. We saw that in our order entry in the last quarter. And those markets and that customer base have all less margins and when you compare to distribution and industrial. Then on the deleveraging side, yes, that gives us lots of opportunities and as we continue to work down that. Our pecking order, which you'll be familiar with, and first and foremost is dividends. And our next dividend target to raise the dividend to keep our track record going is Q4. And you can rest assure we're going to do that. The next is continue to fund organic growth and productivity, which we'll do that. And that's about 2% of sales. We will continue to delever. But as we glide down there, we have an opportunity to look at reinstating the 10b5-1, and we'll update you all on our thinking of that in the next earnings call. And then there's an opportunity as we go down the glide path here to look at acquisitions and share repurchase. And I think because our cash flow has been so strong that we don't necessarily have to wait until we get to 2.0 again to finally dust off the acquisition pen. There's probably opportunities of properties that are a more reasonable size, say, versus doing a CLARCOR or a LORD that would allow us to do and glide down and basically not be impacted at all, so to be able to meet our commitment to all the credit rating agencies and delever at the speed we wanted to. And then the EBITDA is so much higher now that we can probably absorb some things as we glide down and not miss a beat as we try to get down there. So it does give us a lot more opportunities, and those opportunities will depend on what's available. And that trade-off is something we look at every time.
David Raso:
Is it fair to summarize that then is the cash flow is the visibility of it, the strength of it that, again, maybe not a CLARCOR size, but the idea of having to wait until the end of the fiscal year to lean forward with M&A, that's not necessarily the case any longer if something could occur before the end of the fiscal year?
Thomas Williams:
I don't know if I'd go that far. I think it's going to be -- the acquisition activity on FY '22 type of thing. I think sequentially, you're going to look at the 10b5-1. You're going to look at dividends. Obviously, the thing that we've learned over the years, because we have a pretty good track record of being an acquirer. We work that pipeline all the time. But I think we'd like to see the deleveraging go a little bit more. But the point I was trying to make is that once we get into '22, the EBITDA growth has been still high that we can start to look sooner than we probably would have looked in the past.
David Raso:
Terrific. And congratulations, Cathy and Todd.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
And our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Congratulations to Cathy, and thank you. And congratulations to Todd. Maybe I will ask you more questions on margin pace in the second -- no, I will not do that. Just a question on your hydraulics business and just sort of trying to figure out your performance versus your competitors. A, can you talk about the pace of orders throughout the quarter? And when do you think we should hit positive orders for your hydraulics business, industrial business, yes, month, quarter, however you want to answer it? So that's question one.
Thomas Williams:
Okay. So Andrew, it's Tom. First, I would just remind everybody, our industrial business is not just hydraulics, it's 8-motion control technologies. And if I was to compare my neighbors across the street, our organic decline was 15%. And our industrial declined, if I add North America and international, is more like 10%. So again, I think it shows the more diversified portfolio that we have. The order trends in the quarter improved sequentially for North America and international. And we actually had international -- we had Asia Pacific and Latin America turn positive in the quarter. And when we would turn positive as a total company, it's hard to pin that down exactly, but more than likely sometime in Q3.
Andrew Obin:
Got you. And just a follow-up question. Aerospace, could you remind us post the Exotic transaction, what was the mix between commercial and military in the aerospace portfolio? And where are we right now?
Thomas Williams:
Yes. Andrew, it's Tom again. So the mix right now is 50-50. And in the past, it was about 2/3-1/3. 2/3 -- I'm just round numbers, 2/3 commercial, 1/3 military. So you have 2 things going. You have much higher military content with Exotic. And then of course, you have the commercial market softening. So we're about 50-50. And I think the thing that's really helped us in aerospace -- if you go look at our sales decline versus other aerospace businesses, we're at the top of the list. And we're not thrilled that we declined 20%. But if you compare our decline to others, we're in a top quartile. Go compare our margins to our aerospace peers, we're in the top quartile. Go compare our decrementals, we're in the top quartile. So why? The Win Strategy, but it's been the diversification of that portfolio. We have a very diversified technology portfolio. Our percent on engines, commercial, military, bizjet, generally patient, helicopters, regional transportation, it's very diverse. And so that allows us to kind of weather the storm. And certainly, the 50-50 now in the military content being much more stable, has helped us quite a bit.
Andrew Obin:
And 50-50 is a -- it's a normalized revenue mix? Or is that a revenue mix post commercial crash?
Thomas Williams:
Post the commercial decline. We could probably in the follow-up calls off-line, give you an approximate what it would be if commercial came back. But that's like 1,000 different durations. What assumptions you want to make on commercial improvements, so you could have -- I could give you a dozen different answers there. It's probably not going to be 50-50 forever because commercial is going to grow, but we will have a much higher military component than what we've historically had. It won't be 1/3 anymore. It's going to be...
Andrew Obin:
Yes. You guys did even better than Eaton and MOP. So just trying to figure out what's going on here. But congratulations on a great quarter.
Thomas Williams:
Yes. Long term, we're in that 40 to 50 range probably.
Andrew Obin:
Congratulations.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Andrew. Sonia, in respect of everyone's time, we'll take one more question.
Operator:
And our last question comes from Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.
Ann Duignan:
Same regards to Cathy, and best wishes. And my question is around, again, the end-market demand and particularly on the mobile side. Can you talk a little bit about your mix there? I mean we just heard from CNH Industrial and AGCO and I'm sure from Deere that the order books for agriculture, up double digits. Maybe you're not just seeing that yet. But just maybe a little bit of color on your mix within mobile? Is it more construction versus ag? Or do you anticipate orders coming through now that the OEMs are beginning to see a pickup in their orders?
Thomas Williams:
Ann, it's Tom. Maybe I'll just make a couple of comments about some of the ag markets and kind of our view for the year. And obviously, this isn't in any particular quarter, just kind of summarizing our view as we get towards the end of the year. Agriculture for us is somewhat neutral. We see U.S. government support, grain prices up. If I get to construction, nonresidential is soft in both North America and Europe. Asia Pacific is positive in both residential and nonresidential. But I think it's the small equipment activity that's been positive, has been offset by weaker large equipment, primarily outside of China. Automotive for us is a soft first half but a strong second half. And we see bush and engine platforms starting to turn around. But we see a short pickup in electric vehicles, and we have great content on the whole EV side of things. I'm trying to see if I missed any bit mobile end markets. They're probably the biggest ones.
Ann Duignan:
Maybe mining since that's mobile even though...
Thomas Williams:
Yes, I'm sorry. Mining, we've got neutral but we see that as a positive second half. I would say for most of these, Ann, when I look through them -- my comment is kind of an aggregate for the full year, but we got ag as a positive second half; mining is a positive second half; rail, positive second half; construction getting to neutral in the second half; automotive, positive second half. So when we look at our second half, with just the minor exceptions of aerospace, oil and gas being negative, everything is either neutral or positive.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I appreciate that. That's good color. And then just as a quick follow-up. Can you talk about how you think about the return of the MAX into production and sales? Is there any early aftermarket opportunities as they take all those parked aircraft and have to rejigger them? Or do you just have to sit and wait for production volumes to pick up? How do you think about the restarting of that production line?
Thomas Williams:
Yes. Ann, it's Tom. Obviously, it's a positive. And Boeing had already signaled to us -- our production started in May. We've been at 7 per month, and we're going to move to 10 per month starting in January. So that signal had already started. So this is a good thing. And if you just think about how our aerospace business has performed, even with no MAX and then just now at a low rate of MAX, it's a good indicator. I don't think there'll be a lot of MRO provisioning, Ann. I think it's primarily just going to help us on the OE side. The MRO side will be more after the planes flying and it starts to get some flight hours cycle time on.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, Ann. So this concludes our Q&A and the earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Parker. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls, should you have any further questions. Stay safe, everyone.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call and webcast. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2020 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentations, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Sarah. Good morning everyone. Welcome to our teleconference this morning. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast, replay, will be accessible on the Company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On Slide number 2, you'll find the Company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on Slide number 3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing an update on Parker's response to COVID-19. Tom will then discuss highlights from the fourth quarter and full year. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of our fourth quarter performance together with guidance for fiscal year 2021. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. We'll do our best to take all the calls we can today. Please prefer now to Slide 4 and Tom will get us started.
Tom William:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning everybody. A couple of comments from me before we start Slide 4; firstly, I hope everybody listening in that you and your families are safe and healthy. And I'd like to extend our thoughts to those affected by this crisis. And our deepest sympathies go out for those that have lost loved ones as a result of virus. I have a special thank you for all Parker team members that are listening in for their hard work and our dedication really delivering two high level accomplishments. First, we delivered outstanding performance during the unprecedented times as you saw by the quarter and by the full year results, and we're living up to our purpose. We're providing products and technologies are helping society to the prices, and we're hoping to do our part to create a better tomorrow for people. So on Slide 4, we talk about our response to the pandemic. It starts with safety as the first column, strategy and really when we made that change in 2015. It provided a great foundation for us to respond to this pandemic. We're helping society to the crisis. Our technologies are essential what was interesting with all the government orders that came out almost every one of those deemed those as an essential manufacturer. Our purpose and actions are more clear than ever and I'll give you a few examples of that. And our manufacturing capacities stayed near normal levels throughout the pandemic. The governing principle is really the takeaway on this page which is our two safest places that we want for our people to be at work at home, and we're doing everything we can to live up for that. So in Slide 5, the performance during this health and economic crisis and a confidence in the results that you saw in Q4 really come from this list that you see. I want to just touch on the very last bullet, the engaged people. This is a big change that we made in Win Strategy 2.0 2015 and we recognized a strong correlation between safety, engagement and business performance. We are now at top quartile in safety, top quartile engagement. And you can see the significant progress we're making towards being top quartile for financial performance based on the results we just turned in. You go to the next page, I am going to talk about the strength, our portfolio and our purpose and action, and on Slide 7 is the unmatched breadth of technologies that we have those eight motion control technologies. They are our competitive differentiator. It's how we bring value to customers, and our customers see it, 60% of our revenue comes from customers who buy four more of these technologies. Go Slide 8. Our capital deployment strategy has been thoughtful and we've been transforming that's already great portfolios through these strategic acquisitions by acquiring CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic. This is $3 billion of acquired sales. We bought three great companies, the three largest in our history. And they've increased our resilience because of their technologies and because of their aftermarket content. And you've seen in the results, they're accretive to growth, margins in cash and this was especially evident during the crisis. And we've been able to equal or beat our synergy goals, despite the macro conditions. Slide 9 is our purpose statement and they were engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow, which is really acted as our compass and our guiding light and provide a love inspiration to our team. On Slide 10, just some examples of that purpose in action. On the left hand side is the food supply, we're basically from the farm all the way to your kitchen table, transportation whether it's truck, air or rail we're having helping the world move products and goods around the various customers in the middle section there on life sciences, helping patients, whether it's in the hospital or in the ambulance and probably the post challenge is the one that’s probably the signature of the purpose in action for the last quarter was the work we did on the ventilators. So six of those eight picked out that I showed in the prior page or two reddened ventilators, and we saw dramatic, as you might expect, ramp up in production needs based on what was happening in society with existing customers and we took on a lot of new customers and could not find suppliers that could keep up with this production demand, and in some cases, we went from zero to full production and weeks, and it was really a remarkable job by the divisions involved. On the right hand side in the upper right, we are an essential manufacturer as I mentioned earlier. And basically, if you look at any plant in the world, you can probably find a Parker part somewhere in that plants. So we're the essential manufacturer because we're needed by everybody else. Then on power generation whether it's traditional renewables, we're there to help customers with their energy source. Moving and shifting to really the summary of the quarter and the full year on Slide 12. It was outstanding. It was difficult time, probably the most difficult in the history of the Company. The organic growth came in at 21% decline. So, we clearly felt that impact, but we paid down debt by $687 million that was on top of what we did in Q3. And when you look at margin on the two different categories we're going to look at here, it was just terrific performance. Our operating margins, it's better to look at without acquisition given the acquisitions we've got and don’t have periods, but you look at the adjusted growth there 18.1% versus 17.6%, so a 50 bps increase in Q4 as a 16% decremental, just fantastic. That's the fantastic job by all the groups and divisions around the Company. And then without acquisitions, EBITDA was a good way to look at this, apples-to-apples. If you go down to the last row, 20.4%, 160 basis points probably the first time, at least in recent memory that we've ellipsed 20% EBITDA margin. So, this is really a company of the base business performing well, the Win Strategy, the prior period restructuring and bringing on acquisitions that are creative on. If you go to Slide 13, quick summary of the full year, we made continue to progress. I would just remind people that we are already in a great recession before the pandemic hit, so these accomplishments really are up against a pretty stiff headwind. And on safety, 35% reduction in recordable incidents, this puts us in a top quartile and I would just contrast five years ago, we were in the fourth quartile on safety and we're not in the first so remarkable progress there. Cash flow from operations from a dollar standpoint is at all time record. So that's an all time record in the history of the Company $2.1 billion. If you got to hit a record, cash is a good place to hit a record on. You can see the CFOA margins at 15.1%, free cash flow conversion of 152%, and then just some debt metrics, leverage metrics there. You can see that we improved on a gross debt down to 3.6, 3.8 times then on a net debt standpoint, it's just a 3.3 and 3.5. What we're very proud of this cumulative debt reduction in FY '20 was $1.3 billion, approximately 25% of the transaction debt. So in just a little over eight months of acquisition ownership, we paid off a quarter of the debt that we took on to acquire the Company. It's just a great job by the teams here. And then moving on 14 to the full year, again, just a great margin performance for this, the four year organic was down about 10%. And again, same methodology without acquisitions, look at the operating margin that doesn't hold that flat 17.2%, which is very hard to do on a volume drop, and came in at a 70% decremental, which is the best in class performance. With the acquisitions, looking at EBITDA adjusted, we raised it to 19.3%. Again, showing the combination of Win Strategy and acquiring companies that are created on margins to help out the total business. So if we move to this transition here. So, the Parker transformation is happening. Those numbers that you saw on the prior pages don't happen just by accident or by luck. So what we've been doing to drive that? So if you go to Page 16, I'll roads lead to the Win Strategy. And I would say, it's a combination of our decentralized divisional structure with the Win Strategy that drives us unique ownership culture that's really putting up these kind of results. If you go to Page 17 just to elaborate a little bit more on what's different. We started off this time period with a major restructuring activities really starting in FY '14. And then you look at the cumulative restructuring we did those three years, it was approximately $270 million in restructuring. So that really set us on a path of putting the right kind of cost structure in place. We built upon that. We launched simplification 2015, immersed simplification on a broad standpoints structure and organization design on 80/20 and on Simple by Design, which is from a structure standpoint, you can see that we've reduced one-third of the divisions of the Company. And we made two major updates to the Parker business system which is the Win Strategy. Building on the success of the original Win Strategy, we did 2.0 in 2015, it was 3.0 just recently, and we're very excited about that because we have a ton of potential. We're just launched that and has a lot of runway in front of it. We talked about the power of companies that we've acquired and you see that resilience coming through the business side, but I'm going to give you two slides coming up that will show you that resilience objectively looking at both margins and growth. But don't underestimate the takeaway of the purpose statement has really provided create alignment and aspiration. And there's a big difference between being at work and being inspired by at work, and purpose does that for you. And that's what our people feel about that. So on Slide 18 talk about the margin side and I showed you this our last quarter. And this is looking at the last five manufacturing recession and I would argue FY '20 is actually got two separate recessions, and it's the industry recession we've already end and the pandemic that came in March. But you can see whether you're looking at it as reported basis or adjusted, you'd see this significant step change in performance over these manufacturing recessions and something we're very proud of and something that we intend to keep doing. And if you go to 19, this is a look at top line resilience -- and go to 19. So I recognize the great recession COVID-19 is not the same. But these are two examples of significant shocks to the system. My view COVID-19 is worse. You look at the GDP reduction across the world in the last quarter, it draws any kind of reduction happened in the great recession, but let's just say, for the sake of argument, that the organic, that the environment is the same. And we took the worst period is happen in the great recession happened to be Q4 as well and FY '19 was down 32%. And then what did we do last quarter? We did minus 21. Hopefully, that'll be our worst quarter time will tell, but we think it's the worst quarter. So why is it better for some distinct structural reasons why it's better, first a corporate position is now part of our organic performance and it has 80% aftermarket, so that's more resilient. The percent revenue that we get from innovative products and the way we calculate that as a percent or better, this new world, new market divided by our total revenue that over the last five years, that has more than doubled over this period of time. Innovative products are more resilient they grow faster by the margins and then you heard us talk about how we changed the mix and the national distribution by raising it by 500 bps over this period of time. And we've had better customers experience, we’re not there we have lots more to do on customer experience, but that's been other contributor. So the top line, we're not immune to the cycle. We felt that obviously, but it is better than we were before. And there's distinct reasons why better. And it's only going to get better in the future because LORD and Exotic, not yet in our organic numbers. And you can see by the results have shown so far, they are performing better than legacy Parker. Moving to Slide 20, something we are very proud of our cash generation history. I mentioned the CFOA record at 2.1 billion and then we just been very, very consistent good times or bad times you've seen 19 consecutive years of double digit CFOA and greater than 100% prepared for conversion. So I want to move to FY '21 and the outlook, and we decided that to reinstate guidance, and you can make good arguments as to why not to give guidance with the uncertainty and we’re not trying to pretend that we’re smarter than anybody else because we're not, however, we're four months smarter than we were at the last earnings call. And we've proven that we can operate safely and with strong results. And the future's uncertain, we felt we are in the best position to communicate, to shareholders and provide them the insight as to where we're going. And hence, that's why we decided to do guidance. Of course, it's an opportunity we'll have every quarter and we'll certainly get smarter as order entry comes in and we'll update your thoughts if we go through and Tom will go through this in more detail in Q&A portion of the call. But I want you to give you that context as to why we decided to guide before actually give you some of the cyclical numbers. So then if you go to 22, a big part of our success in Q4 was our actions on costs. This is a combination, as I've mentioned, the prior period restructuring, Win Strategy and all the things we've been doing. And then the speed and agility of our pandemic response but what you see here in contrast what we did in Q4 and what we're going to do in FY '21 is the strategic shift and the cost to a more permanent caused action basis. So you can see that a little donut chart and Q4 of FY '20, 12% permanent and that's going to move to 55% permanent in FY '21. If you look underneath that Q4 you see permanent actions these are all saving with 25 million. And that was spot on what we told you last quarter. And you see the 175 million of savings that was less than what we told you to arrange 250 to 300 and it was lower because our volume was better, which was a good thing. We didn't necessarily give ou specific guides last quarter, but we had our own internal planning. We were projecting a 30% decline in volume and asked us why we gave it a range and discretionary came in at minus 21, which we were grateful for. And we didn't need to do as many discretionary actions we needed people to work more hours, which was a good thing. Then when you move to 21, you see a discretionary of $200 million that will be mostly in the first half of that gradually lean off of that as we go through the first half, what we saw in the second half will be more local driven by what the general manager needs based on local conditions and protect predominantly and help balancing plant hours to demand. But then you see the permanent action rising $250 million. And if you look at when COVID hit and you take the second half of that FY '20 and add the, for all of that by 21, look at our restructuring costs, so we did a $65 million of purchase proposing $65 million of restructuring in FY '21, we did 60 million in the second half of FY '20. So that's $125 million of COVID related restructuring. That's going to generate $250 million of savings. So that might seem a little more efficient than normal and the reason for that is it's going to be an asset bite, a restructuring plan. We've got very few plant closures as a solid, that's why it's not lot more efficient than normal. So with that, I'm going to hand it back to Kathy for more details on the quarter.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide 24 and I'll summarize the fourth quarter financial results. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter. Current year adjusted earnings per share of $2.55 compares to $3.31 last year. Adjustments from the 2020 as reported results netted to $0.28, including business alignment, expenses of $0.37 and lower acquisition integration and transaction expenses of $0.05. These were offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.09 and the result of a favorable tax settlement of $0.05. Prior year, fourth quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.14. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. Moving to Slide 25, you'll find the significant components of the $0.76 loss from prior year, fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to $2.55 for this year. With organic sales down 21% adjusted segment operating income decreased the equivalent of $0.61 per share, or $99 million. Decremental margins on a year over year basis were 19%. Decremental margins without the impact of acquisitions were just 16%, demonstrating excellent cost containment and productivity by the teams. Offsetting this decline, we gained $0.07 from lower corporate GNA as a result of salary reductions taken during the quarter and type cost controls on discretionary spending. Interest expense costs an additional $0.15 of earnings per share as debt is currently at a higher level because of the acquisitions. Income taxes accounted for an additional $0.08 of expense because we had fewer discrete tax credits in the current quarter. Slide 26 shows, total Parker segment sales -- total Parker's sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter organic sales decreased year-over-year by 21.1% and currency had a negative impact of 1.1%. Acquisition impact of 8.1% partially offset these declines. Total adjusted segment operating margins were 17.4% compared to 17.6% last year. This 20 basis point decline is net of the Company's ability to absorb approximately 100 basis points or $33 million of incremental amortization expense from the acquisition. On Slide 27, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic had on fourth quarter fiscal year 20 on both an as reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisition were 298 million and operating income on an adjusted basis were 32 million. The operating income for LORD and Exotic includes $35 million in amortization expense. I should point out that the improvement of 50 basis points and legacy Parker operating income despite the $818 million drop in sales. The great work to change it on controlling costs resulted in a 16% decremental margin for the quarter within the legacy businesses. Moving to Slide 28, I'll discuss the business segments starting with diversified industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North America organic sales were down 24.7% while acquisitions contributed 7.6%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.5% of sales versus 18.4% last year. This 190 basis points decline includes absorbing approximately 60 basis points or $9 million of incremental amortization. North America's legacy businesses generated an impressive decremental margin of 24%, reflecting the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements, a favorable sales mix together with the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. Our continued with the diversified industrial international segment on Slide 29, organic sales for the fourth quarter and the industrial international segment decreased by 16.4%, acquisitions contributed 5.4% and currency had a negative impact of 2.9%. Operating margins for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis increased to 16.8% of sales versus 16.4% last year. 40 basis point improvements is net of the additional burden of approximately 110 basis points, or $12 million of incremental amortization expense. The Legacy businesses generated a very good decremental margin of just 9.8%. Again, reflecting diligent cost containment, favorable mix and the impact of the Win Strategy. I now have to Slide 30 to review the Aerospace System segment. Organic sales decreased 22.3% for the fourth quarter partially offset by acquisitions contributing 14.3% declines in commercial OEM and aftermarket volumes were partially offset by higher sales in both military OEM and aftermarket. Operating margins for the current fourth quarter increase to 20.4% of sales versus 17.9% last year. This is net of the incremental amortization expense in active approximately 190 basis points or $12 million. A favorable mix, proactive realignment actions, cost containment and lower engineering development costs contributed nicely to the quarter. Good margin performance from Exotic and hard work for the teams on top containments productivity improvements helped contribute to the solid performers in the quarter. And Slide 31, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic has had during fiscal year '20 on both the NASH reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisitions for the year totaled 949 million and operating income on an adjusted basis contributed 114 million. The LORD team was able to pull forward synergy savings reaching a run rate of $40 million by the end of the year. These savings plus a great deal of hard work by the teams on integration, productivity and adjusting to lower volume due to the pandemic helps the acquisitions the $0.04 per share accretive for the year after absorbing $100 million of amortization expense. Adjusted EBITDA from LORD and Exotic is 26.3%. With this meaningful contribution from acquisitions fiscal year '20 total Parker adjusted EBITDA has increased to 19.3% as compared to 18.2% for fiscal year 2019. Note that the Legacy Parker business was able to improve EBITDA margin 60 basis points to 18.8% despite lower sales of nearly $1.6 billion. On Side 32, we report cash flow from operating activities. We have strong cash flow this year resulting in record cash flow from operating activities of $2.1 billion or 15.1% of sales. This compares to 13.5% of sales for the same period last year after last year's numbers adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. Free cash flow for the current year is 13.4% sales and conversion rates net income is 152%. Moving to Slide 33, I'd like to discuss our current leverage and liquidity position. Based on the continued strong free cash flow generation, and effective working capital management, we made a sizable $687 million reduction to our debt during the quarter, which brought our full year debt reduction to $1.3 billion, which is approximately 25% of the debt issues for the LORD and Exotic Metals acquisition. I apologize for a typo on the slide. The second bullet should be 1.3 billion rather than 1.3 million. With this reduction, our gross debt EBITDA leverage metric at the end of the quarter was 3.6 times, down from 3.8 times at March 31st despite the drop in EBITDA. Our net debt to EBITDA reduced to 3.3 times from 3.5 times at March 31st. We've continued to suspend our 10b5-1 share repurchase program, and we remain committed to paying our shareholders a dividend and we intend to uphold our record of annually increasing the dividend paid. Moving to Slide 34, we show the details of current order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 22% as of the quarter ending June. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 29% within diversified industrial North America, minus 21% within diversified industrial international, and minus 5% within Aerospace Systems orders. Just a reminder that we report the aerospace system orders on a 12-month rolling average. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year '21 is outlined on Slide 35. Guidance has been provided on both enhanced reporting and an adjusted basis. Beginning with this fiscal year '21 guidance as we've previously announced, we are revising our disclosures for adjusted segment operating earnings and adjusted earnings per share. With this guidance, we will now start to include acquisition related intangible asset amortization expense in our adjustments. We think these adjusted results will provide a better representation of our core operating earnings year-over-year. In the appendix of today's slides, you can find the impact of the acquisition related asset amortization expense on fiscal year '19 and fiscal year '20. In today's pandemic environment, total sales for fiscal year '21 are expected to decrease decrease between 10.7% and 6.7%, compared to the prior year. Anticipated organic decline for the full year is forecasted at a midpoint of 11.3% acquisitions are expected to benefit growth at a midpoint of 2.7%, while currency is projected to have a marginal negative 0.1% impact. We calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as the quarter ended June 30, 2020, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for fiscal year '21. You can see the forecasted as reported adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are forecasted to decrease approximately 80 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating adjusted margins in a range of 17.8% to 18.4% for the full fiscal year. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $7.41 to $8.41 or $7.91 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $9.80 to $10.80 or $10.30 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as reported forecasts made in this guidance, at a pretax level, include business realignment expenses of approximately $65 million for the full year fiscal 2021 with the associated savings projected to be $120 million in the current year. We anticipate integration costs to achieve of $19 million, synergy savings for LORD are projected to hit a run rate of $18 million and for Exotic a run rate of $2 million by the end of the year. And in addition, acquisition related intangible assets amortization expense of $321 million will be included in our adjustments, some additional key assumptions for full year 2021 guidance. At the midpoint, our sales will be divided 47% first half, 53% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 43% first half, 57% second half. Adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 40%, 60%. First quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.15 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $0.67 per year or $115 million in projected acquisition related amortization expense, business realignment expenses and integration costs to achieve. On Slide 36, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year 2020 adjusted earnings per share, compared to the adjusted fiscal year '21 guidance of $10.30 at the midpoint. Fiscal year '20 adjusted earnings per share were reported as $10.79. To make it comparable to the fiscal year 21 guidance, which includes an adjusted for acquisitions related asset amortization expense, we show the adjustment of $1.68 to get to a comparable $12.47. With organic sales down over 11%, adjusted segment operating income is expected to drop approximately $1.95. This would result in decremental margins of 27% on a year-over-year basis. Corporate G&A and other expenses projected to negatively impact earnings per share by $0.36, because of gains achieved in fiscal year '20 that are not anticipated to repeat. Offsetting these declines, interest expense is projected to be $0.29 lower in fiscal year '21. And income tax rate of 23% will reduce earnings per share by $0.10 year-over-year. And the assumption of a full year of the spending share buybacks is projected to result in a $0.05 dilution due to an increase in average shares outstanding. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance, which should now include adjusting for acquisition related amortization expense. This concludes my prepared comments. Please turn to Slide 37. I'll turn it back over to Tom.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. I thought we would close with what is probably an honest question on most people's minds is, how do you feel about the FY '23 targets that you just outlined in IRD, given the pandemic and what is done? And the short answer is, we're still committed. We've made tremendous progress on margins, and our top line is clearly becoming more resilient. While the top line revenue that Cathy articulated in IRD was 16.4 trillion, that will be very hard to hit. But we can still grow fast in the market, which is our intentions for these, targets to see in the space growing fast and global industrial production next to margin targets of 21% of the margin of EBITDA, free cash flow conversion and in EPS. Barring a recession in FY '23 and recognize we have three full fiscal years left to get here and provided we get some modest growth is going up like '22 and '23, we believe we can hit these numbers. So again, I want to just close by saying thank you to the partner team, especially thank you for keeping each other safe and for what you've been doing on all of our safety protocols and for the great results in the FY '20. And I'll turn it over to Sarah to start the Q&A.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole DeBlase:
So maybe starting with the expectations for decremental margins fall on the slide that you guys are anticipating 30% decremental, I think that's inclusive of the cost savings plan you laid out. So I guess just maybe frame for us why decremental should step up from here since the performance this quarter was so impressive?
Tom Williams:
Nicole, its Tom. So, I'll start. Our decremental, if you look at quarters for FY '21, our projection float in a range of 25% to 30%. So still best-in-class type of performance. The difference between say, where we were in Q4, and that because a couple things, one in Q4, we had a little bit of help with next, we had a lot less mobile business than we had in the past. And that business is typically significantly lower margins and distribution in industrial. So the distribution industrial portion of the Company's revenue in Q4 was disproportionately higher than it normally. So, that is not going to sustain itself is going to go back to more normal levels as mobile comes back as opposed to four years, so that will become a headwind. The other part in Q4 is we saw the results of terrific forms by aerospace, which was helped with some seasonal help on the international military MRO where we had a very sharp increase versus prior periods and that's very high margin that comes with that. So, those would be the two key reasons, but even with that, I would suggest to you that with these kinds of volume drops at 25% to 30% decremental and I looked at all of our peers before we came into this, would still put us in the top quartile decision.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, absolutely. Thanks for that Tom. And just as my second question, I know you guys had said that you didn't see a ton of improvement from April to May when you spoke previously. But can you maybe characterize, what you guys saw in June in anything quarter to-date in July?
Tom Williams:
Yes, so I'll continue on Nicole. So through the quarter, we saw from North America and international bottom in May, improved in June and July orders are indicative of what, I'll give you kind of how we feel, what the first and second has splits for our guide and then aerospace weekend through the core. And I've give you more color on aerospace here in a second. So when you go to the full year, we saw our guide of minus 11, so that minus 11 is made up of a first half of minus 19, a second half of minus three. So what was our thinking, as we thought through that? So if you look at it by segment North America and I'll start with how Q4 ended, I kind of parlay that into how our thinking about the first half. So Q4 in North America, and then minus 25, based on the words we saw in June and July, we see some modest improvement going into the first half. We forecast at a minus 21 for the first half, then it gets to flat for the second half of FY '21 and international came in at minus 15 organically and again, based on order entry in June and July, we have that going to a minus 12 modest improvement and going to almost flat in the second half as well. And aerospace was minus 22, helped a little bit because of that high international military MRO. We see that weakening a little bit in the first half at minus 26 and then improved but still being a tough environment, a longer cycle minus 15. So again, you get the first half of minus 19 second, half minus three, but we get to Q4 when we anniversary the pandemic and we show high single positives. The thing that I would point our view on this, that, and our thinking behind the whole guidance is that the industrial coverage started, but it's going to be uneven and there's going to be a fair amount of demand. And certainly, and I think that that improvement is going to follow the more or less it lagged behind how the virus improves, in a sense why we forecast that a modest improvement in the first half. And we still had aerospace declining as it's a longer cycle taking a while to adjust out until some of those orders. And the second half we see things slowly starting to build. And what I would say is positioning for a really good Q4 but really positioning ourselves for an excellent FY '22. And those are obviously going to outpace aerospace here as far as performance, and Asia's going to, run fast within North America. So that's just a little color so far on what we think guide.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good day, everyone. Also maybe a little clarification on how the cost actions work through, if we could Tom or Cathy. It's the nature of my question, first just looking at slide 22. So should we think of discretionary actions then as a headwind in the first quarter of roughly $125 million, so we're going from $175 million in Q4 to $50 million in Q1 and running $50 million a quarter through '21 to get to that $200 million?
Tom Williams:
Jeff, this is Tom, no. Most of the discretionary things will continue in Q1 and will start to slowly meter them off in Q2. And so, most of that's going to happen. So Q1 will look a lot like Q4 a little less and Q2 will have a small note and then you'll have this very little about if I trickle into the second half of '21. That portion is hard to predict, because it will be very much sensitive to demand, just like how you saw what we did in Q4, how it flexed based on demand. It will flex based on what happens on demand as we go forward. But we're going to continue to discretionary pretty much full steam for Q1, but the permanent starts to compensate for that base on what we did in the second half and what we're doing in 2021 to cover those total costs need to come out, plus at the same time, our volumes is starting to get better as they move through those quarters.
Jeff Sprague:
Yes. So on the permanent then Tom, it sounds like it was built over the course of the year. Is that, can you give us a little color on that trajectory? Is that indicative of the run rate also as you exit or did you actually exit, at a higher run rate in that $250 million?
Jeff Sprague:
The split on the $250 million is approximately 57% in the first half, 43% in the second half. And so part of what's making up $250 million, as we got $130 million, that's carry over from FY'20 actions. And then we've got $120 million coming from the new $65 million of cost currently for 2021. So, it's a combination of the two coming in there.
Jeff Sprague:
And just one last one if I could, on cash flow, greater than 10% now doesn't sound like a real high bar. But, are you assuming now given the performance that you've put up recently? But are you assuming, some kind of negative working capital swing in the next year that would be muting the cash flow?
Tom Williams:
No. This is Tom. We don't want to go backwards on that percent. As dollars become tougher, because we're forecasting at $1.2 billion less revenue. However, from a percent standpoint, CFOA margin and recognize that was a really great here at 15%. It's not that we can always do that every time. But I would tell you, I would not be happy if it came in at 10%. So, we're looking to be well north of that and where we come and we'll see what happens. But the expectations we would continue to work working capital. We have opportunities still on inventory. We have opportunities with acquisitions and inventory and we're going to work receivables and payables like we normally do. So, I would see it being a team effort on the cash flow, just like we've always done.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie:
So, Tom maybe just digging in a little bit further into the end market trends. I know, a lot of your businesses short cycles. There is a tremendous amount of visibility, but it seems like if I heard you correctly, the modest improvement in both North America international, I mean, is that a way to think about it that that July for North America was down, let's say north of 20%, international still down double-digits mid-teens? And then I guess, the second part of the question is really as you talk to your distributors, what are they saying about inventory levels and the potential for restock?
Tom Williams:
So let me start with a restocking question. So, right now we're forecasting that distribution will continue to probably have some mild destocking for the first half, not as much as what we saw, obviously in Q4, with some mild restocking. To maybe give you a little bit more color on the markets. We -- so that minus 11, at the midpoint is North American minus 11. International minus 7, aerospace at minus 20, but I want to give you a little bit more insight on international. So we're forecasting EMEA and these are obviously put a plus or minus these numbers at minus 10 Asia-Pacific and flat and Latin America minus 10, a small part of the portfolio. But we have a number of markets that if I just gave you a couple of comments, I'll try not to make this too lengthy. Our view of end markets for FY '21. And again, my comments are not trying to position the entire market just speaking out Parker's going to do. But what we saw is positive is life sciences and we're going to continue to see a pretty good first half and based on the ventilator, but that will decline as we go into the second half power generation coming up on still being positive semiconductor being positive. And then we'll have aerospace military OEM, aerospace military MRO being positive in mid-single-digits. And automotive actually being probably for full year and automotive will be negative for the first half, but it turns out to be a positive second half as we see both combustion engine volume. And in particular content on EV and HEV things such a strong build material there, that that will drive a lot of growth for us and our engineering materials in the business. And in the neutral category, we've got clean material handling, mining, telecommunications, refrigeration and core stream. Then on the negative core stream for FY '21, we've got distribution how. We think distribution to each bottom and starting to slow recovery expect for those sugars that support oil and gas. I mentioned in my comment about the stocking. So it'll be down probably high-single-digits in 5% to 10% range in the first half, some reasons could be worse, turning positive in Q4, but we look at Asia in positive distribution for the full year. And then on the aerospace, which is probably where people have a lot of questions, what should we assume on the aerospace side? So commercial OEM, we assumed the minus 25 to 30, something in that range for the full year. And how we came up with that, as we took prompts, anticipated production rates? So the rates that you see published by the airframe and the engine makers and time chart build material, how does that subject to change but that's based on current provisional rates that we have right now. And then our commercial MRO, we forecast that down at minus 35 to minus 40. And recognizing that tends to fall available see kilometers. And so we got our first half thing, obviously more stressed on commercial MRO minus 50 in the second half of minus 20 to minus 30. They're rounding out the rest of the negative markets with the construction and truck machine tools oil and gas, rail, tires, and mills and foundries. So that's a quick spin to the market and how we came up with the guidance. I would tell you that our process, we use a process, which is similar to what we've done in the past, where we take all the end markets, the top 20, we look at external forecast and we build it up by in markets. We take our divisions and groups, and we also take our customer and distributors, but this year we built an AI model, which is the first time we've ever done this. And we use the last 10 years with a data in our history to help come up with what are they interdependent, dependencies on the things that would predict our future forecast. Now, recognizing we never had a pandemic in past 10 years, so that's new. And while the AI model was helpful until we have more months with a pandemic in there to be able to continue to be refined. So there's was a fair amount of science, but I would just tell you, this is a forecast and we all know what happens with the forecast. This is our best effort at this point to tell you what we think is going to have.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks and very helpful. My quick follow up and apologies if I missed it because I got cut out of the last question, and I think Jeff asked this question. But just thinking from a quantification perspective on the cost, just want to make sure it's clear. So for fiscal 21, you've got 450 million in cost benefits, getting that number against the 175 in discretionary actions from fiscal year 20, or what's the right number to think of it as the net benefit in fiscal 21.
Tom Williams:
So maybe I can help you out a little bit. We're keeping the permanent savings separate from the temporary action savings. So they're independent of each other. We did about the total year of fiscal year 20 and had about $76 million of costs. And we see carry over savings into fiscal 21 a lot of those costs came through the fourth quarter and we see the benefit coming into 21. So of the savings you see in fiscal year 21, some comes from the actions we already took. The rest will come about 120 million will come from the actions we plan to take in the fiscal year 21. Those actions will be heavily weighted into the first half about 75% of the dollars will come through the first half and 25% in the second half. So you'll see most of the savings coming into fiscal year 21 from those actions.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning and lots of great detail. So, low free cash flow forecast for FY '21, so should we take the cash EPS has the best estimates for free cash flow, but we do have cash restructuring to think about? And I guess my real question is. Do you think that working capital will come down in line with sales? Or are we getting to a point now where we have to start rebuilding some during second half of fiscal?
Cathy Suever:
Good question, Nigel. Yes, you can expect that cash flow -- what we like to say for our target is more than 10% as Tom described, 10% only would be disappointing for us at this point. If sales decline as we're projecting then we would expect working capital to come out just accordingly, as we typically do. We're very good at pulling that working capital down as the volume comes down. The improvements that we talk about in the second half or in the fourth quarter, keep in mind is talking against some pretty low comparables. So, it shows improvement year over year, but it's not a significant dollar increase in terms of volume. So, it would not require a significant working capital and the fourth quarter.
Nigel Coe:
My follow on is on price. It doesn't feel like there's a little price pressure across cap goods, right now. And clearly, your margin performance suggests, you don't see much price either. But commercial aero is an area where we, there are some concerns. So, I'm just curious, if you all have seen some price concession requests, so some get backs to your OEM customers in commercial aero?
Lee Banks:
It's Lee. Maybe I'll just couple that with commodity material inflation. We do see some modest material inflation across the channels. But our goal always has been from cost price standpoint to be margin neutral, and we still expect that to happen this coming fiscal year.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Just first question, I guess on supply chains, a, both global and North America. A, have you seen any disruption shipping stuff from Asia to North America and also Mexico to the U.S.? And have you made any adjustments to your supply chains post-COVID are you thinking about making structural adjustments? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom. So, I would take you back to really our strategy and what's just been a long-term strategy on supply chain, as we make buy sell on local. That helps us a lot on this and in that we do not have a tremendous amount of cross continent type of activity. We've not seen any disruption that's been material in nature and the supply chain team has done a great job. And part of our protocols, always we look at risk mitigation and we look at the solvency of suppliers and their ability to deliver. We always look at that and make sure that things are in great shape and we don't see any major things to worry about there. But, this is an opportunity for us as our customers look at this and they may have supply chains that are different than the way we're structured. And as that happens and that place team from a material standpoint, yes, that will provide a revenue opportunity for us as they move plants or re-relocate things. We have an opportunity since we have a global footprint to satisfy them as they move.
Andrew Obin:
Tom, I guess the follow-up question on inventory from the channel on both distributors and sort of OEs. A, we really since the great financial crisis, we really haven't seen a big restocking cycle. Do you think we can adept one after a COVID-19? I know you said people have sort of destocked a little bit, but are we going to see anything materials coming out of it? And the second thing, what can you tell us about sort of the bullwhip effect in your OE customers, how much this sort of discourse sales and what you're seeing in the channel? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Andrew, I can start and Lee if will willing to add on it, he can add on it. But I think what you see with both of OE, a lot of your question the answer will be the trajectory of any kind of recovery. At this point, based on what we just gave you as guidance, we're projecting a modest recovery and not some sharp type of recovery. If it's sharper than I do think you'll see some restocking type of opportunities. But based on what we're projecting, I think you can see just normal, kind of and pull through type of stock. So, we saw pretty major destocking in Q4. We think some of that will continue at a lower rate and both OEM and distribution in the first half. But I think the restocking opportunity. We're not projecting or counting on that right now. But if the trajectory of recovery was to be a lot more sure than obviously I think people will be looking at something they need to do.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
I'm trying to better understand the margin guide for the year. Now, you're looking at the guidance with amortization excluded. So you're guiding 18.9 goes down to 18.1, which that seems let's say reasonable. Given amortization this year, is it going to be a lot more helpful to the margins than last year last year that added 210 bps given sale guide adds 260? So when you strip that away, and we have more history, looking at the four this change of how you're reporting. You're implying of the margin before amortization being pulled out at 15.5. That's on a 12.5 billion sales base. The last time you had margins at low revenues were a billion or half a billion less than what you're guiding. And just given the improvement a company's been showing our margin. I'm just making sure that what we're trying to suggest that the margins the old way used to report it before you pull that amortization, the margins are going to be down to 15.5 that just seems 0.5 or 1 billion less than some years back, when you're doing 15.8 or 14.8. I'm just trying to say while the margins be that low I mean aerospace mix issue a little bit. But can just help us level that why would be lowered and even years ago, when revenues were even lower?
Tom Williams:
David, this is Tom I'll start, I'll let Cathy add on. First of all, it's a little bit typical if you do have to back out acquisitions, because acquisitions in the first quarter do throw off the MROs is a little bit. So if you and we can share this with you more privately and one on one, you'll have with Robin and Jeff with the decremental without acquisition and we kept them in one a lapped are now 25% to 30% range. For a guidance in an uncertain times that is a really good guy MRO. So the MRO is come out the probably position. When you look at their respective segments, so North America 18.9 versus 19.3, again, this is a make an apples-to-apples amortization put back and both years. We had 11% volume drop, and we have a mobile next, a headline. So that seems dropping 40 bps seems reasonable, International, we've got lower volume and so that's dropping 30 bps, 17.1 versus 17.4. And aerospace perhaps the most, which is what, helped a lot here in FY '20, 20.5 to 17.9. And the big difference there is the international military MRO that we had which really gave us a strong fourth quarter. And then they had the most severe volume drop for the full year and 20% organically. So I think these are really good numbers. MROSs for an August guide are best-in-class as far as what we would guide to. I can tell you we've never, ever guided to a 25% to 30% MROSs. We always typically guide into higher than a 20% to 30% range. So we are reflecting how the business has gotten better, or we're also forecasting into a very uncertain period of time. Hence why, we didn’t go down to the teams because that's a difficult thing to repeat.
David Raso:
I think when you strip out the change and you look at a pre adding back amortization, what really sticks out is international, which just put up margins year over year pre amortization add back in last year in total at 59, you’re driving around 14 with a decremental of around 40. I'm just trying to understand, is there something unique going on internationally, creating that in the modernization, something going on international to mix on this thing.
Tom Williams:
Yes, for me international is a lot less amortization, it's getting allocated. You got to look at both years with amortization in, and that's why it was articulated to FY '20 with amortization all in is 17.4 and it's only dropping 17.1. So, it's not much of a drop at all for international, and it matches what you would expect with the kind of volume drop.
Andrew Obin:
We'll talk offline about the add-backs for -- by section.
Tom Williams:
Yes, you're throwing in international amortization as if it has the bulk of the amortization. The bulk of the amortization would reside in North America.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, I'm just taking the quarter you just reported and times-ing it by four essential keeping it as a run rate by quarter. So maybe Robin or Kathy offline, we can get the exact ad that by segment for 21 would be great. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
I've got one that's probably for Lee. Can you guys talk about what kind of friction you're seeing in your own operations from safety protocols that you've had to put in as part of your processes, whether that's changing how the U-shaped cells are laid out or anything like that or additional costs that you've incurred and if that's meaningful to your results? And then are there plans for you to be able to improve those processes and eliminate some or all of those frictions as we go forward?
Tom Williams:
Well, that's a great question. Thank you. first off, because I know there's a lot of team members listening, I can't say enough about what our worldwide team has done and putting in these safety protocol, that's been audited by a lot of outside, governments, and they've always applaud what we're doing internally to separate things out and keep our workers safe, but remark. Yes, there is a cost. It's not material things up, but it's remarkable what our teams continue to do in terms of reconfiguring ourselves, still getting the same productivity flow, but separating our workers from each other, giving them the space, giving them the many cases plexiglass separations, and just organizing a production system that you know is consistent with our lean production system. It gives us excellent flow and keeps everybody safe. So, nothing meaningful to talk about, doing a great job and the results I think prove it out.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. Maybe on capital allocation, Tom, we're getting down to net debt in the low 3, probably by this time next year, it's going to be in the 2.5, maybe a little bit better than that even. Depending on how the recovery goes. When -- how are you guys thinking about when to reenter the M&A market in a meaningful fashion, what kind of leverage metrics do you need to get down to before you look at that? And how is the cultivation of the pipeline going in the meantime?
Cathy Suever:
Nathan, I'm going to start with that and then I'll turn it over to Tom. I'd like to recalibrate you a little bit. Keep in mind that EBITDA is dropping. So, the denominator gets a little bit more difficult. I think 2.5 times next year is a pretty aggressive projection and not what we're anticipating we will be able to do. So, Tom, you want to comment?
Tom Williams:
Yes. So, we're probably going to be still north of three when we finish. But obviously, we're going to do what we possibly can to saw the pace of debt reduction. We did this last fiscal year. But on acquisitions, we continue to always build those relationships and look at those strategic targets and have those discussions. But we're not going to enter into those until we get the M&A to get the covers down into those low 2s. And we're going to work very hard as soon as we get the lever.
Operator:
Thank you. Out next question comes from the line of John Inch with Gordon Haskett. Your line is now open.
John Inch:
Hi, Cathy. Could you comment a little bit on the first quarter expectations for core growth? And obviously, the genesis of my question is, you've got North American orders and international orders much worse than the core growth you just put up and then the outlook that shows the substantial top line rebound, right in all of fiscal '21. So, I'm assuming we're heading to a pretty tough next quarter or two. Is there anything you could say about that?
Tom Williams:
John, it's Tom. So, in similar way what I mentioned when I went through the first half, first half is going to be minus 19 for the total company and North America is going to get a little better from minus 25 last quarter to minus 21, and International minus 15 to minus 12. So, we see that gradual improvement. It will be a little bit in Q1 and a little bit more in Q2. The only thing that will weaken will be aerospace as aerospace is a longer cycle in finding bottom, probably most likely kind of in the middle of a year as far as aerospace finds bottom.
John Inch:
And do you expect these businesses to good turn positive by the end of fiscal '21 just as part of your guide or still hovering negative?
Tom Williams:
Yes. We've thought in Q4, it'll be probably plus high single-digits on the industrial portion and aerospace.
John Inch:
And probably if you went over this before, there is just a lot of moving parts. I wanted to just as follow-up, the structural actions, I guess I was under a bit of an impression that, the Company was not looking to take structural actions based on all of the work that you've done before. So Tom, I'm wondering kind of what perhaps, maybe I got that wrong, but was there something that did trigger your thought process to go ahead and take structural actions like, do you think the outlook narrated that as the quarter proceeded, and can you tell us anything about sort of how you're allocating these actions across say, aerospace versus International versus the domestic ops?
Tom Williams:
Yes. I'll kind of give you more strategic view second, like Cathy comment as far as within the segments, but when we looked at it, John. We look at aerospace on gas going to be down for long. So we needed to take structural actions there. And we also just looked at the trajectory here. And the opportunity between all the things we've been doing for even more continuous improvement regarding the structure of the Company. So that's why we're looking at permanent if this was to bounce back sharply already could not be doing it, the face of effective, this is going to be a little longer trajectory. And we have some certain markets that are down proposed several years. We wanted to take the actions now to get the right decision. And we really felt that way, as we're going through it at the end of Q4, and that's why we took those actions. So, the actions we took in Q4 are really helping us springboard into FY '21 savings. I don't know if Cathy wants to add on as far as how it's going to split between the segments or not.
Cathy Suever:
Yes, for FY '21, John, the split will be about half of the costs will be through the international operations. And then the remaining 50% will be fairly evenly split between aerospace and North America. And keep in mind that these actions are more workforce related than they are asset related.
Tom Williams:
I guess I would just add on. Something that we did by structuring about 50 blend a permanent discretionary is it gives us the flexibility to move depending on what happens on demand.
John Inch:
I'm sorry. I don't understand. Permanent discretionary gives you the flexibility to what?
Tom Williams:
To move based on demand. As an example, if we just made all permanent action, you probably have a little less flexibility by doing a mixture of both. So more flexibility and we're not taking out assets, which gives you even more flexibility. You can obviously have people vacant.
John Inch:
And at the numbers are definitely impressive on the paybacks. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Cathy Suever:
In respect of everyone's day, we're going to take one more question and then let you go.
Operator:
Our last question comes on the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities.
Andy Casey:
I guess it dovetails with John's last question on the concept of workforce versus assets within the restructuring. Can you comment on, as other companies may have done similar things whether your experience with this pandemic has accelerated stuff you've already had in the pipeline? And what sort of things might those be?
Tom Williams:
Andy, it's Tom. So we always look at how to continuously get better, as far as our people or how we deploy them. And that's a combination of lean and kaizen simplification, all those types of things. So I would say, we always have a pipeline of those type of ideas to groups and divisions do. And when you run into where volume is down, if this volume is going to be down for longer, some of those things getting get accelerated. Clearly, when we look at the most distressed markets that is causing us to take more aggressive action there because we don't expect him to come back, aerospace as an example anytime soon, but we always look at I like better on the structure of the Company. And I haven't said that this is that plus our response to the end markets that are being the most distressed.
Andy Casey:
And then the last question, they've been quite a few questions around this. But if I take the midpoint of the first half, second half framework that Cathy put out, the decremental margins with all adjustments are slightly above 30 in the first half and then high 20s in the second half. Is that difference, I know, I’m splitting here a little bit, but is that difference really mix related and the impact of acquisition? Or is there something else?
Tom Williams:
No. Andy, you summarized it because when you take out the acquisitions and only have them when they've lapped so its apples-to-apples, the decremental are 25% to 30% range have been. So, that's pretty good because you're pointing mix it’s not going to help us next year as well.
Cathy Suever:
So this concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you everybody for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available to take your calls should you have any further questions. We appreciate your times this morning. Enjoy rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fiscal 2020 Third Quarter Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the conference over to your host Chief Financial Officer, Cathy Suever. Madam, please, go ahead.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Latif. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin's third quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast, replay, will be accessible on the Company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the Company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing comments on the current environment and related actions we've been taking. Tom will then discuss highlights from the third quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a more detailed review of our third quarter financial performance. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. We'll do our best to take all the questions we can today. Please refer now to slide number 4 and Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. Before I get into Slide 4, I just want to first extend our thoughts to all those that have been affected by the crisis and our deepest sympathies go out to those that have lost loved ones as a result of the virus. A special thank you to all the health care professionals for their courageous efforts around the world and I'd also like to thank all the Parker team members for their dedication and their support and what we have done in really, in our own small way to help society through this crisis. I'll elaborate more about that later on in the presentation. So this is unprecedented times and that's a word that's probably overused but very appropriate given the uniqueness of having a combined health and economic crisis. So on Slide 4, our performance and our strength for both of these crises really comes from The Win Strategy, which is a proven operating system and we're now in our third and very powerful revision of that. A portfolio of products and technologies that are needed and this has never been more evident and important in today's climate. We make things that the world absolutely needs. Our culture and our values, which is why people join and stay at Parker and our purpose, which has been our North Star, and I'll talk more about the connectedness of our purpose to our actions later on. And we have an engaged team of people. We have top quartile engagement scores and you couple that with our decentralized divisional structure, that is what has enabled us to move at the speed and agility that you've seen during this crisis. So on Slide 5, our crisis management strategy is really threefold. First is the safety of our team members and their families; second is how do we help society through this crisis, we are essential, and I'll talk to you more about why we are essential. And that we want to emerge stronger than ever before after the crisis is over. We have utilized the crisis response management team and that's structure we have in every key country and we have it for corporate as well, and their focus has really been on the health and safety side of things. We've had a daily cadence with that team, seven days a week, really, since this all started in January. I wanted to make a comment about how the executive team has been functioning. So the executive team, say the top 20 executives in the company, have still been coming to the office, and we maintain physical distancing and do zoom conferencing, all those type of things, but it's very advantageous to have us co-located to where we very quickly can see each other, make decisions. That's been a key enabler to our speed and to decisiveness as well. On Slide 6, we'll talk about the health and safety actions. They've been early and they've been decisive. They've been patterned off of the CDC and the WHO as well as lessons that we've learned from China. And this is a list that you probably are familiar with as you've listened to other companies. I won't necessarily go through each one of these, but I would just point to, we were early on with travel restrictions and we were early with cancellation of in-person meetings. And I will highlight two examples. First, ConExpo. We're probably one of the first companies to withdraw from ConExpo, which is a very important show. So that sends a very strong message, I think, to everybody in our space as well as our people, the importance of what we wanted to do here, protecting our people. And then we were an early adopter of the virtual Investor Day, which all of you were part of, and we thought that was very successful. Not as good as in person, but it was very successful. And it was a smart move to do that. So the takeaway on this page, the governing message to all of our people has been this takeaway. We wanted the two safest places for our people to be at work and at home, and we're going to do everything humanly possible to make sure that it happened. So I mentioned that we were essential. And on Slide 7, I just wanted to highlight some examples of our purpose and action. And I'm going to go through these just real quickly. But our products have helped society through this entire crisis. So if you look at food supply, we have products from the farm all the way to the point-of-use in retail, helping patients, whether it's emergency transportation on a helicopter or on hospital beds. And we are a central manufacturer but we're also helping other people that are central manufacturers. That little picture that you see in the upper right-hand corner there, is a picture of a typical manufacturing plant with the roof off of it. And I would tell you, we are in almost every manufacturing plant around the world, helping people make their products. So those eight motion control technologies, seen in the lower right, are being put to use to help society. And if you go to the next page on Slide 8, a couple more examples, transportation, whether it's heavy-duty truck or air freight to get products to customers, power generation for electricity. We're on traditional as well as renewables. And I would – I think the best example and the poster child of this crisis is really the ventilator. We do a fair amount in health care but the ventilator in particular, we have almost doubled our sales in this calendar year 2020, and we have six of our eight technologies on the ventilator. And we've been supporting new and existing customers as well as countries from around the world. And the divisions that have been doing this have just done a herculean job staying up with customers. It's just a fantastic job and my compliments to all of them. So on slide – the next slide is our purpose statement, enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. We released this last September, and I can tell you, we probably never envisioned how positive an impact it's had on our people. And it's really is becoming a rallying cry for our organization through this crisis, and it illuminates, I think the purpose in what we bring to society and gives a great deal of meaning for our people on what they do, day in and day out. Moving to Slide 10, a quick snapshot of the facility and supply chain status. And you go to that middle column, just at the major regions and total Parker. So this is percent capacity versus pre-virus. Using pre-virus as 100%, as an example, we're virtually back to normal at 97%, but there's obviously a lot of things that went on through the quarter and in April, with stay-at-home orders and all that, that moved us up quite a bit. Our supply chain strategy on the right-hand side has done great and very effective during the crisis. You've heard me talk about this in the past but we may buy and sell in the region for the region. We've also got a very robust supply chain risk mitigation strategy that we've been doing for years, well before this started. So we're in very good shape on that. This is a nonissue for us. Moving to 11. I want to talk about the quarter and I would just – if I had to summarize, I would tell you it's probably one of the best quarters that we've ever done, given the environment that we're in. It was really just remarkable performance by the team. Starting with safety, we had a 27% reduction in recordable incidents and that yields, when you look at reportable incident rates, so that's the number of safety instance per hundred people, we're a top quartile company, which is fantastic progress. Sales were flat year-over-year. Acquisitions offset the decline we had in organic and currency. But the margins really were stellar. They really stood out. So we got two categories here, without acquisitions, and I would call your attention to the adjusted segment operating growth and you see, we came in at 17.3% for the quarter versus 17.2% in FY 2019, the same quarter. So a 10 basis point improvement, 16% decremental and remember, this is on about a 7.5% organic decline. So just fantastic progress by the teams to pull that off. And then when you put acquisitions, it's easier to look at EBITDA to make it apples-to-apples. If you look at EBITDA margin on an adjusted basis, that last row, you can see that came in at 19.3%, so a 60 basis point improvement versus the prior period and this speaks to two things
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide number 24, and I'll summarize the quarter. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $2.92 compared to $3.17 last year. Adjustments from the current fiscal year as-reported results netted to $0.09, including before tax amounts of business realignment charges of $0.10, acquisition costs to achieve of $0.06 and acquisition transaction expenses of $0.14. These were offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.07 and the result of a favorable tax settlement of $0.14. Prior year third quarter earnings per share has been adjusted $0.03, the details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. On Slide 25, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $0.17 for the third quarter last year to $2.92 for the third quarter of this year. Starting with the net decrease of $0.07 in segment operating income. For legacy Parker, a $329 million decline in sales resulted in only a $54 million reduction in operating income or $0.31. The Parker teams did an excellent job of controlling costs on the lower volume, resulting in a legacy Parker decremental margin of 16% for the quarter. The LORD and Exotic acquisitions contributed $0.24 in operating income. Lower net corporate G&A and other expense contributed $0.03 this quarter as a result of currency gains on forward hedge contracts. We incurred incremental interest expense of $0.19 year-over-year. And after adjusting out the benefit of a favorable tax settlement, a higher tax rate from continuing operations and less favorable discrete adjustments resulted in a $0.04 reduction from income taxes. On Slide 26, you'll find the significant components of the walk from the previous third quarter adjusted earnings per share guidance at the midpoint of $2.36 to $2.92 for the third quarter fiscal year 2020 actual results. Segment operating income contributed $0.43 more to the quarter than anticipated. Our guidance was developed at the start of the COVID-19 scare in Asia and we anticipated a 16% drop in international organic sales but actually achieved only a 10% organic decline. The aerospace segment, on the other hand, experienced more impact in the quarter than was anticipated. Our quick reactions to controlling costs and the resulting higher margins also contributed to the higher than expected operating income. Lower net corporate G&A and other expense contributed $0.10, due to the previously noted currency gains in the quarter. Lower interest expense due to reductions in debt and lower variable interest rates in the quarter, resulted in a $0.02 per share improvement Slide 27 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the third quarter. Organic sales decreased year-over-year by 7.4% and currency had a negative impact of 1.5%. These declines were more than offset by the positive impact of 9.3% from acquisitions. Total adjusted segment operating margins were 16.9% compared to 17.2% last year. This 30 basis point decline is net of the company's ability to absorb 100 basis points of incremental amortization expense from the acquisitions. On Slide 28, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic had on the third quarter of fiscal year 2020 on both an as-reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisitions were $343 million and operating income on an adjusted basis was $42 million. The operating income for LORD and Exotic includes $35 million in amortization expense. Note the improvement of 10 basis points in legacy Parker operating income despite the $329 million drop in sales. The great work the teams did on controlling costs resulted in a 16.4% decremental margin for the quarter. Moving to Slide number 29, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with diversified industrial North America. For the third quarter, North American organic sales were down 7.1%, while acquisitions contributed 8.9%. Operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis was 17.1% of sales versus 16.5% in the prior year. This 60 basis point improvement is after absorbing 100 basis points of incremental amortization. North America's legacy businesses generated an impressive decremental margin of 4%, reflecting the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements together with the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide number 30. Organic sales for the third quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 10.2%. Acquisitions contributed 6.2%, and currency had a negative impact of 4%. Operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.2% of sales versus 16.5% in the prior year. Without the incremental amortization expense, margins would have improved 10 basis points on an overall 8% reduction in sales. The legacy businesses generated a very good decremental margin of 19%, again, reflecting diligent cost containment and the impact of The Win Strategy. I'll now move to Slide number 31 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. The Aerospace Systems sales increased 16.7% from acquisitions, while organic sales declined 2.4%. Declines in OEM volumes, primarily commercial, were partially offset by higher commercial and military aftermarket sales. Operating margin for the third quarter was 17.4% of sales versus 20.7% in the prior year. Incremental amortization expense impacted the change in margins, 160 basis points. Lower earnings were driven by the OEM volume declines, higher engineering development costs and a less favorable aftermarket mix. Good margin performance from Exotic and hard work by the teams on cost containment and productivity improvements helped contribute to the solid performance in the quarter. On Slide 32, we’re showing the impact Lord and Exotic has had year-to-date fiscal year 2020 on both an as reported and adjusted basis. Sales from the acquisitions total $651 million and operating income on an adjusted basis contributed $82 million. This operating income includes $65 million of amortization expense. Adjusted EBITDA from Lord and Exotic is 26.3%. With this meaningful contribution from acquisitions, total Parker adjusted EBITDA has increased to 19% year-to-date compared to 18% for the same year-to-date period in fiscal year 2019. On Slide 33 we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was a record $1.3 billion or 12.3% of sales. This compares to 12.1% of sales for the same period last year after last year’s number is adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. Free cash flow for the current year-to-date is 10.5% of sales and the conversion rate to net income is 122%. Moving to Slide 34. I’d like to discuss our current liquidity and credit positions. Our cash as of the end of the quarter was $0.7 billion. The majority of this cash is overseas allowing the international operations to be self-financed. Our long history of free cash flow exceeding net income during growth periods as well as recessionary periods gives us strong confidence in our cash flow outlook. With additional emphasis on our well-established cash management practices, we are optimizing working capital, taking advantage of the government tax payment deferrals and reducing our capital expenditure investments. We have temporarily suspended our 10b5-1 share repurchase program, but as Tom described, we remained committed to paying our shareholders a dividend and we’re confident we have the cash available to do so. We have a $2.5 billion revolving credit facility readily available should we need it, and we have no major debt repayments due until fiscal year 2023. We remain active in the commercial paper market and as of the quarter end, we held $0.9 billion in commercial paper debt. The only active financial covenant in place is to maintain a gross debt to total cap ratio below 65%. We are currently at 59.4% and we have $2.5 billion of headroom where we in need of additional debt. Our gross debt to EBITDA leverage metric at the end of the quarter was 3.8 times, down from 4.0 times at December 31. We were able to pay down $611 million of debt during the quarter and as we build a full 12 months of EBITDA from the acquisitions, the metric will become more meaningful. As Tom mentioned, we are withdrawing our fiscal year 2020 guidance due to the uncertainties we are still facing through this quarter. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted results for a more consistent year-over-year comparison. As a reminder, we will be revising our method of reporting adjusted results to include adjusting out the amortization related – the acquisition related amortization expense, but we do not intend to make that change until fiscal year 2021. We ask that you do not adjust for amortization expense in your estimates until we all consistently make that change. If you’ll now go to Slide number 35, I’ll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. We are confident in our ability to emerge stronger than we’ve ever been before. And that confidence and that hope really comes from a couple of factors
Operator:
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning. Can you hear me?
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nigel. We can hear you well. Yes.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Great. So Tom, you mentioned that you’re planning on analysis recovery. And I’m just wondering what that means in terms of balance sheet liquidation inventories and it suggests that you’re going to be very aggressive in terms of liquidating the balance sheet. So my real question is, 4Q guidance obviously being withdrawn, but do you have confidence that you could still generate $1.8 billion of free cash flow versus the $1.3 billion year-to-date?
Tom Williams:
Nigel, yes. Because we – typically, our fourth quarter, even in tough times is always a very strong quarter for us, and we will have the advantage of working capital generating a lot of cash for us in Q4 and that should help us quite a bit. And so we still see that, that 10% or greater CFOA as a percent of sales is going to continue, and we’ll do a good job in Q4. I think what I want to emphasize is we’re planning for an L to be conservative, but we have the flexibility with whatever shape, letter it turns out to be. And of course, nobody knows at this point, but we have the supply chain flexibility. We have the people flexibility to respond in whatever direction it works.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks, Tom. And then my second question is on the decremental margins. You’ve obviously done a fantastic job, especially on the legacy Parker businesses. Your comments on the 4Q seems to suggest that there’s going to be some deterioration in the run rate given the volume drop-off that you’re expecting. But given the cost countermeasures you’ve put in place, a little bit surprised that maybe decrementals can’t be managed below 30%. So I’m just wondering what you’re expecting in terms of decremental margins based on your scenario planning?
Tom Williams:
Well, like I have on that slide that I outlined all the cost reductions, we’re targeting a 30% decremental. A 30% decremental is still best-in-class, if you benchmark other companies. And doing a 30% decremental approximately in this kind of climate is really, really good performance. Who knows what the quarter is going to turn out to be, I would suggest to the folks listening, that April is probably our low point and that we would see May start to improve a little bit and then improve a little bit after that with June. But if you can do decrementals like this in this kind of environment, that’s really outstanding performance.
Nigel Coe:
Great. Thanks, Tom. Good luck.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nigel.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre of Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I’m glad to hear you doing well. I’d like to ask a question on aerospace. The color that you’ve given us on April is quite different than the orders prior to coronavirus becoming an issue. And I just – I guess I’m wondering, how should we be thinking about this softness in orders playing through to fundamentals next quarter and over the next couple of quarters? How does it flow to revenues and how should we think about decremental margins in this segment specifically?
Tom Williams:
Mig, it’s Tom. So I think, obviously, we never disclosed – haven’t disclosed until this time, aerospace on a 112 because it is lumpy, and there’s a lot of multimonth, multiquarter, multiyear type of orders that get in there. So it can sometimes be misleading, either on the positive or the negative side when you look at it. But aerospace, what we’re planning for is a significant change to aerospace. It’s going to go through a tough time. And you’ve got the commercial side, it’s going to come down very strongly, but we have a really great military business. So we’re basically two-thirds commercial, one-third military and that military business is growing very nicely. So our 20% reduction in force will be in addition to those discretionary things for aerospace. So we’ll do the 20% reduction in force, that’s a permanent SG&A challenge to kind of reshape aerospace for this new normal, but we will continue the reduced work schedules, the salary reduction of the things I have on the discretionary page that I outlined so that aerospace can flex as well. And we feel very good that aerospace will be able to do well in this new environment. The Exotic team that’s come on is performing well. They’re performing better than legacy Parker and it has over 60% military business. So aerospace long term, long, long-term is still a great business. It’s going to have a couple of years here of challenges, and we’re reshaping the portfolio to win in this new reality, and we’re doing it very quickly.
Mig Dobre:
Understood, Tom. But is there a way to maybe talk about this business sequentially from a revenue standpoint? Just trying to make sure that we have our expectations properly gauged there.
Tom Williams:
Well, we’re not guiding. So I’m not going to start spouting off what I think Q4 is going to be. But I think you can look at order entry there. And you can also recognize that we do have very strong backlogs in this business. So we had the ability to continue to work backlog. And actually, the backlogs have held up fairly well. When I look at backlogs going from March to April to date, commercial OEM is at about 11 month backlog and military OEM is almost two-year backlog. Commercial MRO, if you remember at IR Day, we talked about at 2.5 months, it’s still about 2.5 months. And military MRO is at about a 16-month backlog. So the backlogs are holding up. I would tell you what customers are doing is they’re more rescheduling quantities. And that’s what we’re doing is we’re reshaping our supply chain demand and our people to that new reality.
Mig Dobre:
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Mig.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Can you hear me? I apologize.
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Good morning.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning. Just a question. Can you just talk maybe about region-specific trends on orders? You provided great granularity on orders by segment in April. But maybe just compare and contrast how Asia, Europe and U.S. – well, U.S., you have, but how the pace of recovery in Asia and what do you see at the end of the tunnel in terms of your China experience?
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it’s Tom. So I’ll address that. Let me start with – I’ll give you the Q3. I recognize maybe a lot of you won’t need Q3 but I just – I’ll give it to you for context. And then I’ll go into April and China, your specific question. So you saw the orders on Q3 and the improvement that we saw before middle of March was really international. It was both EMEA and Asia. And you saw aerospace orders stay level, and that was because we had very strong military OEM orders. When you look at it by kind of subsegment, and this is organic, and you’ve already seen total Parker minus 7.5%, aerospace at minus 2.5%. But distribution was down about mid-single digits, pretty much steady versus the prior quarter. Again, this is a Q3 market summary. Industrial was down mid-single digits, a slight improvement of about 200 bps improvement versus Q2. And then mobile was down low teens. And it had a slight improvement versus Q2. The markets that were positive, we had some very strong end markets that were positive in Q3. Greater than 10% was power gen and semiconductor. We had two markets that were positive, low single digits, marine and mining. And then on the declining markets, I’ll just give you in various buckets, low single-digit decline was mills and foundries, mid-single-digit declines, refrigeration, oil and gas wanted tariff on distribution, high single-digit declines in life science and automotive. And then that 20% to – and that 10% to 20% decline was tires, telecom, construction, heavy-duty truck, agriculture and rail. Now to April, Andrew. So what we saw in April so far, now – so you saw the segments. So let me give you color on international. So in a page, Slide 14 in the deck, it’s 25% to 30% down, but Asia Pacific was down about minus 5% to minus 10% and then EMEA and Latin America down minus 35% to 40%. We did have some positive end markets in April. Life sciences, I mentioned the amount of ventilator work that we were doing, power generation, semiconductor as well as aerospace military OEM and aerospace military MRO, all the negative. The positive, as I mentioned earlier on, was that orders stabilized the last two weeks at these levels. So they did not continue to decline, which is kind of the first sign of healing. In May, and this is a guess on our part, is that this will be somewhat similar, but slightly better as most of our customer shutdowns start back up in May, but there’s been a lot of variations as part of why we’re not giving guidance is their start dates have moved very much. Almost every day, we get a new letter from a customer moving a start date and their levels of production have moved and really won’t be finalized until they start-up. And they’ll start at low levels. But we expect May to be slightly better and then June should build slightly better on that. But to your point, and what we’re looking at related to what you were getting to, is Asia. So Asia was the first to go in and the first to come out of this. So Asia, while maybe not necessarily being foreshadowing what the rest of world is going to do, it’s illustrative to understand what happened in Asia. So in particular, if I look at China, because that’s really the bulk, it’s half of Asia, at least. In Q3, the trend there, I’m using round numbers on sales, was a minus 30 in January, minus 40 in February and then flat in March. So we had a very sharp rebound in China orders in March. This is restocking due to the pent-up demand from January and February. And so our thoughts and about the only region I’m going to give you thoughts on Q4 is Asia. And so I’ll give you what we – our initial estimates are might be for Asia, again, indicative of what might happen as you think about the rest of the world, subsequent months down the road. Is that we have North Asia, China, Japan and Korea, kind of in that minus 5% to minus 10% for the quarter, Q4. Southeast Asia is slightly positive and then India being down probably in the high teens. Most of India is taking a very hard line on their manufacturing capacity shutdowns that puts total Asia in that minus 5% to minus 10% range for Q4. I would just comment that, that visibility is cloudy, clearly dependent on how global trade does and probably mostly dependent on China’s economy. The same challenges that we have seen in the rest of the world on small to medium-sized companies, China has the same issue, those company cash and then the rest of Asia is still operating with partial shutdowns. If you look at New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and India, in particular. So Asia is the first to start to heal and that’s the indicator that we see at this moment, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
That is incredibly helpful. And just a follow-up question. How do you gauge the financial health of your distributors, the ability to access capital, the ability to access in this environment? And where do you think financial health for your distribution stands right now? Thank you.
Lee Banks:
Yes. Andrew, this is Lee. So I mean, as you know, we’ve got incredibly close relationships with all our distribution. And we have constant health checks with them, very current on receivables. Just very frank conversations on credit and we don’t have any issues looking through the channel right now to speak of.
Andrew Obin:
That’s was helpful. Congratulations and thank you. And congratulations on a great quarter.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning, I’m trying to think of a setup exiting this calendar 2Q. I mean, it looks like the way the revenues are playing out the orders with your decrementals, it seems like your sort of wide range EPS for the quarter is like $1 to $1.50 or so. But typically, the next quarter, you have sales down mid-single digit. I would think just given what’s happening here, it should be the opposite. They should be improving from calendar 2Q to 3Q? But I’m trying to understand the setup. When you’re saying stabilization, are you getting any indication, is this – distributor inventories low enough that they’re restocking, OEMs were not stocking up before they’re shutdown, so they have a catch-up? I’m just trying to get a better sense of how comfortable can we be that the first quarter of fiscal 2021 can really leverage off that, say $1 to $1.50 range. I think people are just trying to get a sense of what’s the earnings power after what could be obviously difficult calendar 2Q?
Tom Williams:
So David, it’s Tom. So I probably won’t surprise you. I’m not going to comment on Q1, but I’ll give you maybe some thoughts on the other parts of your question. So when I make comments about being more stable, it’s the daily rate stabilizing for the last two weeks. And our distributors are smart business people and they’re conserving cash just like everybody else. So they are pretty much being very careful with what kind of things they’re going to do on inventory and they’re managing inventory very appropriately. I think our Q1 is going to have an advantage because our cost structure is going to be extremely lean going into Q1. What I can’t predict is what’s going to happen on the top line. I do think that we will progressively improve April to May, May to June. But I can’t guess necessarily what the year-over-year is going to be because the pandemic, you have to cycle the pandemic before you start to show really positive gains. But I think sequentially, you’re going to start to see improvement. The big question is just the rate of improvement. Is this an L? Is it an L where the bottom of the L starts to move up more aggressively than a traditional L? Is it a U? We don’t know. That’s why we’ve designed our ability to flex to that demand if it happens, but have a cost structure that can be there, if it doesn’t happen as well.
David Raso:
That was sort of the genesis of the question. So if there’s any reopening that can be stabilized at all, you would think your revenue sequentially would go against the historical norm. It won’t decline mid single, it should improve. But from your answer, it sounds like it’s more OEM right now than it is distributor. And to your point, I’m just trying to figure out the incrementals coming out because if it’s OEM over a distributor, you’d argue you’d rather have distributor. But to your point, you’re going to have cost-outs that should not automatically come back. Right? You should have some leaned out costs. But again, it’s more OE improving from here, stabilizing, let’s say, then I should think it’s the distribution. It’s more OE. Right?
Tom Williams:
Okay. So I get your question more, David. So I think you’ll see improvement – marked improvement across both channels, OE and distribution because those order rates that we showed you on that slide for April are pretty equally representative distribution and OEM, maybe slightly better in distribution, but they’re pretty much the same. So you’re going to see both of them come back. It won’t be like, hey, we’re just going to rebound in OEM and distribution stays the same. You’ll get both coming back.
David Raso:
Okay. That’s helpful. I appreciate it. And lastly, anything about how you’re viewing the world now, that changes how you feel about what leverage you want to come down to before? And I know it never was imminent anyway, but we used to talk kind of 12, 18 months. Have you rethought at all what you are comfortable with on leverage before you would lean back forward, be it M&A or repo?
Tom Williams:
David, it’s Tom again. So we would – we still feel strongly we want to get back down to that approximate 2.0 level on a gross debt to EBITDA. That was our feeling before the crisis, it’s still our feeling.
David Raso:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
The next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone. Just a question on the decrementals first. You guys have some noise going on in the decremental margins with the acquisitions folding in. Is that 30% decremental that you’re targeting, including the acquisitions, excluding the acquisitions? How should we think about that?
Tom Williams:
Nathan, it’s Tom. That would be excluding the acquisitions, the legacy business. But I would just tell you, the two acquisitions are doing extremely well. And I would just want to make one quick comment in case there’s – people have more – might have more questions in acquisitions. Part of why you see the improvement in North America is our synergies on LORD have accelerated. We’ve gone from what we told you last quarter at $18 million in FY2020 to $30 million. And we’ve been able to accelerate our SG&A on LORD. And so we look for that – the decrementals on legacy, but we look at the two acquisitions. Both acquisitions, as you saw, are coming in at a really nice – LORD is significantly beating where we thought they’d be on EBITDA. They’re on approximately 27% EBITDA for Q3 and Exotic was in the mid-20s. And both of those businesses are executing the same kind of cost reductions and cash actions that the rest of the business is doing. So they will continue to be helpful. Their top line is holding up better than legacy Parker and our margins are better. So they will continue to help. But that decremental-like quote, it was on the legacy business.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. And then on the cost out numbers, the $250 million to $300 million, it sounded like that was in place on April 1. Are you already at the run rate there? And then the $25 million to $30 million that’s structurally coming out of the aerospace business, how long does that take before that falls into your cost structure?
Tom Williams:
The numbers that are on that page are what we will feel in Q4. So that’s for a full quarter, you’ll feel it. And it’s more than just aerospace and the structural, there’s oil and gas, things we’re doing. And there’s things really across every group that we’re doing as well. But clearly, a lot of it is aerospace driven.
Nathan Jones:
And then just one quick one on the Exotic synergies. You talked about the LORD synergies there. Does the – the large drop in the expectation for aerospace here reduce the expectation of the amount of synergies that you can get out of Exotic over the next year or two?
Tom Williams:
Yes, for Exotic, we’ve had a pretty minimal amount of synergy, if you remember, it’s $30 million. And we recognized that with material savings for Exotic, you’ve got long supply agreements, and they really weren’t going to start to kick in until year 2022 and 2023. And most of Exotic’s synergies were productivity and The Win Strategy, which we feel very good about. So the $50 million, the short answer is we feel good about that. That’s not changing. And I would just highlight again for Exotic, their top line in Q3 was still significantly better than legacy Parker. We’re clearly fortunate that over 60% of that business is military. And we’ve been able to pull in and accelerate our F135 work to kind of help cushion what’s happening on the commercial side. And so for Exotic to deliver mid-20 EBITDAs, given what’s going on, it’s just really fantastic performance by them.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Good morning and nice quarter. I guess, two questions. Tom, you kept talking about the resilience of Exotic and LORD through the third quarter. Can you sort of talk about trends that you’re seeing in April for those businesses? And then my second question was with regards to the 30% decremental, I assume that’s specific to the fourth quarter. And my question is, if we’re in a prolonged sort of downturn, how confident are you with decremental margins because of some of the actions you’re taking seem like more short-term versus like salary cuts and stuff like that, versus long term? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Okay. So let me start with the second part. So the 30% decremental in Q4, that will continue going forward. We’ll continue to do the things we have to do to flex the business to deliver that. And again, I’m saying approximate 30% regardless of what’s happening with the top line. I believe that this will eventually start to turn, so you had to be careful that you don’t do too many permanent structural actions and prevent your ability to respond. So we will watch that. We obviously won't let the temporary things go on forever because that would be unfair to people and we would then have to turn them into permanent. But we will look at that quarter-to-quarter and make those decisions as a team. But I think you can expect the detrimental and the resilience. Remember, the resilience you're seeing now is five years in the making. Its work we've been doing on – and I would say it's even before that. That stair steps on those margins happen because of all the actions we've done over the last 20 years. We've been building a more resilient business model for 20 years now. So this is why we're able to perform here. But specifically, you've seen the margins significantly increase the last five years and that you could point directly to Win Strategy 2.0 for that. The trends on – in April for LORD and Exotic. So I don't really want to go into too much detail on this. I would just say that LORD would be probably half as better than what you saw for legacy Parker, at least half better, I mean, less – half less bad. That's a way to say that in English. And I would say the same thing for – and even better for Exotic because Exotic is probably going to be able to hang in there at a high single-digit type of decline because of their very strong military business. And that's what's really helping that. We've been able to pull forward and our customers have approved this, the F135 work, and we just happened to be very fortunate and thank you to the Exotic team for having such a big bill of material on one of the premier military programs really in our history.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate it.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes, thank you. Good morning guys.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So I just wanted to talk a little bit more about distributor imagery levels. If you could just comment on, do you think distributor inventories have rightsized for the current level of demand? Just trying to gauge how much restocking would be required as we come out of this and end-user demand increases?
Lee Banks:
Nicole, this is Lee. My sense is that inventories are in line with demand. They're not buying anything, they're conserving cash. So what I think you would see is a pull through on real demand through the channel back to Parker-Hannifin.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay. Got it. Thanks, Lee. That's helpful. And then on the leverage, is the expectation that you guys have more opportunity to continue paying down debt in the fourth quarter? Or is the next tranche of that likely to be coming in 2021?
Cathy Suever:
Yes, Nicole, this is Cathy. We'll watch how things are going through the fourth quarter, but if you look at our expectation for cash flow, we will have some flexibility I believe to pay down additional debt during the quarter. And if we're comfortable going into next year in the position that we are then I think we will definitely do that.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. Thanks, Cathy. I'll pass it on.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nicole.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ann Duignan of JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Bill McMullan:
Hi, thanks. This is Bill McMullan on behalf of Ann. Her question is, can you provide a little bit more of an update of a lower discount rate environment and weaker equity returns on your pension plan funding?
Cathy Suever:
Sure. This is Cathy. The discount rate that we're currently booking expense to was set last June and we set it once a year at our June 30 timing, and we're at a discount rate of 3.28%. As we disclose in our queue, if the rate drops 50 basis points, that'll have an impact of about $15 million to our expense. We're watching it. We in as of the June rating last year, we had no required pension contribution due until fiscal year 2023. As the rate will likely drop and will have some impact on the need to fund, we don't anticipate it being any sooner than fiscal year 2022. And so we have a good year plus before we have any and that repayment we think would be a pretty minimal amount required. So no funding requirements we don't think for the rest of this year and fiscal 2021.
Bill McMullan:
Great. Thank you. That's all I have. I’ll pass it on.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann of Jefferies. Your line is open.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. Maybe I could do a couple of longer-term questions here, and I'll just sort of take them together. I'm wondering, it's probably too early to answer a lot of it, but I'm wondering if there's any change in your long-term margin expectation as you have laid out recently? And second to that, given that things look like they could be a little bit different going forward for some of the end markets like you mentioned, aerospace and oil and gas. Does that potentially free up some businesses that might be candidates for divestiture going forward? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Steve, its Tom. So the margin targets that we gave you at Investor Day are still the targets and we're not moving off of those. We're still what we're striving to get to for FY 2023, and we still think we can do that. From the divestiture side, oil and gas and aerospace are still great businesses. And we are able to perform well in those end markets. And we use all eight of the technologies into those end markets. So they meet all the performance criteria to stay part of the team and we'll get through this near term challenges and we're going to reshape those businesses to win in this new market. But these are really strong businesses for us, have all the right kind of returns. So yes, they will stay part of the portfolio.
Steve Volkmann:
Thank you. Good luck.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi. Good afternoon. Maybe just a quick question around aerospace again. So you've taken some fixed costs measures in that business. So the assumption understandably is for a prolonged downturn. Maybe just help us understand what you're thinking about aerospace aftermarket within the commercial side specifically? And is it fair to assume similar to peers that decremental margins on that aftermarket decline will be very, very severe? And then sticking to aerospace, one of the large defense contractors talked about some production choppiness for the F-35 program. Just wondered if you'd seen any of that or expecting any type of slow down or disruption on that program on the military side? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Julian, its Tom. I'll start with that one. On the F-35, no, we've not seen any choppiness. As a matter of fact we are accelerating our deliveries. So everything has been fine on that. And then the commercial MRO, you're right. As you might expect, that's feeling a very sharp decline. It's probably in the greater than 50% type of decline area. And that will take a while to heal. You'll need the public to want to get back and airplanes. But they will if you think about it over time here, I think the leisure traveler wants the right kind of safeguard and comfort are there. Will come back, and who knows how long that takes, but they will come back. And the business traveler will come back, but probably not the levels that you've seen because we've all learned that there's a lot of digital productivity that you could do. And that's why we're designing structure of aerospace to be able to win because it might take a little while for this to heal. Nobody fully knows, but I think you'll see the leisure side heal faster. The business travel will come back – will probably not come back to 100%. But then you'll have the demographics that were there before is that aerospace tends to follow GDP historically and tends to follow GDP at 2x GDP. So once you get through this kind of reshaping of aerospace, it will start to then follow that kind of growth rate, which is a nice growth rate, and we will continue to have this business perform well. We will do the things to make aerospace as creative business as it is now, be great in a tough environment.
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Julian. Latif, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Yes, ma'am. Next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Andy Casey:
Thanks so much, and hope everybody is well.
Cathy Suever:
Hey, Andy.
Andy Casey:
I just was looking for a little bit more color on the – what you may be seeing on the distribution inventory actions. Going into the quarter, it looked like those might be stabilizing a little bit. Clearly, April, they probably fell off. But is the pattern kind of stabilization and then reacceleration?
Lee Banks:
Andy, I think the way I would characterize it, you're right. They were declining to stabilizing in March. I think the second half of March, there was – the channel saw what was coming, there was a conservation of cash, really not buying anything. We saw a direct impact through our divisions from distribution. I would tell you in April, as Tom characterized, they're down about as much as the OEMs are down right now. So I think any kind of rebound we get in demand will facilitate a rebound in demand directly to our divisions.
Andy Casey:
Thanks, Lee. And then should we kind of look at the distribution in terms of regions as similar to what Tom had laid out in terms of China getting a little bit better, down less, maybe getting better? And then the other regions, still down?
Lee Banks:
Yes. I think the way to think about distribution is really the reemergence of the manufacturing base. So a lot of our distribution is dealing with MRO activities inside the manufacturing space. And when they're closed, they're not buying anything. So we've seen a rebound in distribution in Asia, China specifically, Europe has been incredibly soft along with North America and Latin America.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Andy. This concludes our Q&A session and the earnings call. Robin and Jeff will be happy to take your calls should you have any further questions. Thank you for joining us today. Stay safe and enjoy the rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Fiscal 2020 Second Quarter Earnings Conference call and Webcast. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms. Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please, go ahead, ma'am.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Liz. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin's second quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number two, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's materials and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number three. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing highlights from the second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's second quarter performance, together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number four and Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the call and thanks for your interest in Parker. Let me start with some strategic highlights. First of all, we are very pleased to report that despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, our margins and our cash flow are all-time highs, relative to previous downturns. I think the best way to compare this -- the best way to do it apples-to-apples is look at the base business without lowering side and compare to prior downturns. When you look at our second quarter FY 2020 adjusted operating margin without acquisitions, that came in at 16.1%. This compares to our previous best recession performance, which was in FY 2016, and that Q2 adjusted operating margins were 13.5%. Both of these recessions had about similar organic sales declines and this represents a 260 basis point improvement comparing that to our best previous recession performance. Really, a remarkable performance and really my thanks to everybody around the world for doing such a great job. In addition to the margin improvement, cash flow from operating activities was an all-time year-to-date Q2 record. This performance demonstrates that we are building a more resilient business that is poised for accelerated earnings growth as the market turns. Strong FY 2020 margin performance and cash flow generation so far are really a reflection of the improvements driven by The Win Strategy and the strengthening of our portfolio by buying companies that are accretive to growth into margins. So we are excited about where we are and we're excited about where we're going to go in the future. Shifting to safety. We had a 25% reduction in recordable incidents in Q2. Really making great progress here and my thanks again to everybody for their effort on this and their dedication to safety. Our recordable incident rate and what that is to people that aren't familiar with that, that is the number of safety incidents we have per 102 members that is now top quartile versus our project peers. And there's a very strong linkage. You've heard me talk about is between safety and business performance. If you were to apply our safety metrics and our financial metrics you'll see them moving in tandem in a positive direction. So some summary comments on Q2, sales were our second quarter record as acquisition revenue offset soft organic sales. Organic sales declined as we expected with improvement in international organic sales versus our guide. The 737 Max issues impacted our aerospace business as Q2 airframe and engineers were slowed in advance of the production pause. Strong adjusted EBITDA margins were significantly higher than they were during the last recession. We came in at Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% again really strong performance. Earnings in the quarter were excellent and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations. Order rates in the quarter continued to be negative impacting organic growth. And the portfolio additions that we have made are certainly going to help our organic growth over time. We've acquired businesses that are more resilient with higher organic growth rates than legacy Parker. We're well positioned for excellent performance in the second half of FY 2020 and beyond that. I want to move now to year-to-date cash flow. You've heard me talk about how this is such a strategic priority for us. We want to be great generation deployers of cash to drive excellent returns for our shareholders. We've achieved the best-ever cash flow from operations of any first half in our history. And given current market conditions that's really commendable. Free cash flow to sales is about 10% and we're expecting to achieve our 19th consecutive year of cash from operating activities as a percent of sales in excess of 10% for FY 2020. The year-to-date free cash flow conversion was excellent at 130%. Moving now to the outlook, we're increasing EPS guidance for FY 2020 on roughly flat sales to the prior year. This reflects strong Q2 performance which is being offset by the 737 Max and slightly weaker organic sales in the second half versus our prior guide. Our guidance assumes no additional 737 Max sales for the balance of FY 2020. We are very excited about the future. We feel we're well positioned for growth with excellent margins and cash flow as the macro conditions improve. Some of the factors that are driving this feeling of confidence will be first launching, The Win Strategy 3.0 which is going to drive a further step-change in the performance of the company really building on the momentum from the previous updates that we've made to The Win Strategy. Second would be the portfolio strengthening that we've done through the strategic acquisitions that have come on board. We're very happy with how LORD and Exotic integrations are progressing and we can comment more about that in the Q&A. And we recently had the leadership teams for both businesses here at headquarters talked about the -- incorporating The Win Strategy 3.0 their integration plans. It was a great session; a lot of good teamwork there. And then third would be the launch of the purpose statement which is enabling engineering breakthroughs that lead to a better tomorrow. This statement is a real source of pride for our organization. And we recognize that it takes being a top-quartile performing company to live up to the higher purpose. Parker is transforming as evidenced by the higher level of performance that we're doing in a very difficult part of the business cycle with lots of opportunities to drive earnings growth beyond FY 2020. Switching to the next slide, you'll see a reminder of our winning formula what we have characterized as our competitive differentiators. And I've talked about these before, so I'm not going to say highlight each one specific. I would just tell you this is -- this listing in aggregate is what makes us special. This is why customers come to us and this is why shareholders should think about investing in Parker. If I had to reference one in particular these competitive differentiators, I would point out Win Strategy 3.0 and what we're -- the momentum and the performance enhancements that's going to create over time. And a lot more discussions will happen on that as we forward. So my thanks to all the global team members for their continued and dedicated effort in creating a top-quartile company. And with that I'll hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter and the guidance.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks Tom. I'd like you to now refer to slide number 6. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.54, compared to $2.51 for the same quarter a year ago. Adjustments from the fiscal year 2020 as reported results totaled $0.97 including before-tax amounts of business realignment charges of $0.08, acquisition costs to achieve of $0.05 and acquisition transaction expenses of $1.14. These were offset by the tax effect of these adjustments of $0.30. Prior year second quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.15, the details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. On slide number 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 to the second quarter of fiscal -- for the second quarter of fiscal 2019 to $2.54 for the second quarter of this year. Starting with the net decrease of $0.13 in segment operating income. For Legacy Parker, a $260 million decline in sales contributed to a $0.34 reduction in operating income. The Legacy Parker teams did a good job of controlling costs on this lower volume by sustaining a decremental margin of 23% for the quarter. The acquisitions contributed $0.21 partially offsetting this reduction. Lower corporate G&A contributed $0.16 due to gains this year, compared to losses last year on market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation. Incremental interest expense on the debt borrowed for the acquisitions resulted in a $0.20 year-over-year decline in the current earnings per share. Lower other expense of $0.07 benefited from interest income earned on the bond proceeds prior to the closing of the LORD acquisition. We gained $0.10 from a lower tax rate, primarily due to favorable discrete tax benefits and a lower share count benefited the current quarter $0.03. Slide number 8 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter. Organic sales decreased year-over-year by 7.1% and currency had a negative impact of 0.4%. These declines were more than offset by the positive impact of 8.2% from the acquisitions. Total adjusted segment operating margins were 15.8% compared to 16.6% last year. This 80 basis point decline before the incremental amortization expense from the acquisitions. With the help of the Win Strategy tools, the Legacy Parker businesses managed to achieve good decremental margins of 23% on their lower sales volume. On slide 9, we're showing the impact LORD and Exotic had on the second quarter fiscal year 2020. These results reflect a partial quarter of contribution from LORD since the acquisition closed on October 28; and a full quarter of Exotic, which closed on September 16. Sales from the acquisitions during the quarter were $286 million and operating income on an adjusted basis was $36 million during this stub period. Moving to slide number 10. I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the second quarter North American organic sales were down 8.5%, while acquisitions contributed 7.3% to the segment. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.4% of sales versus 16% in the prior year. Incremental amortization of 75 basis points in the quarter more than accounted for the change in margins. North America's legacy businesses generated a good decremental margin of 24%, reflecting the hard work of diligent cost containment and productivity improvements together with the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 11, organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 9.4%. Acquisitions contributed 4.5% to the segment and currency had a negative impact of 1.4%. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 14.6% of sales versus 15.7% in the prior year. Incremental amortization was 30 basis points in the quarter. The legacy businesses generated a very good decremental margin of 23% which was partially offset by contributions from the acquisitions. I'll now move to slide number 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Aerospace Systems sales increased $111 million or 18% from acquisitions and 1.3% from organic sales. Growth in military OEM and commercial aftermarket sales were largely offset by lower commercial OEM sales and military aftermarket sales. Operating margin for the second quarter was 18.5% of sales versus 19.7% last year. Incremental amortization expense of 160 basis points more than accounted for the change in margins. Good margin performance from Exotic and hard work by the teams on productivity improvements, helped contribute to the strong performance in the quarter. On slide number 13 we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $826 million or 12.1% of sales. This compares to 10.7% of sales for the same period last year after last year's number is adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. That's a year-over-year increase of 11%. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 10.4% of sales and the conversion rate to net income was 130%. Moving to slide number 14, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder these orders results exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a 3-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Continued declines in the industrial markets resulted in total orders dropping 3%. This year-over-year decline is made up of a 7% decline from Diversified Industrial North American orders and a 6% decline from Diversified Industrial International orders offset by a positive 12% increase from Aerospace Systems orders. Moving to slide number 15. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined. This guidance has been revised to align to current macro conditions and includes the impact of the LORD and Exotic acquisitions. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year with the help from acquisitions are now expected to be flat compared to prior year. Anticipated full year organic change at the midpoint is a decline of 6.4%. Currency is expected to have a negative 0.5% impact on sales. And acquisitions will add 6.9% to the current year. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended December 31, 2019 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2020. Considering the uncertainty of the regulatory clearance of the 737 MAX, we have now excluded all 737 MAX sales for the balance of the fiscal year 2020. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.1% and 15.5%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.0% and 16.4%. We have not adjusted the incremental amortization expense of approximately $100 million, we will incur in fiscal year 2020 as a result of the two acquisitions. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 22.5%. The second quarter tax rate was favorably impacted by discrete items which we don't forecast for the balance of the year. We continue to anticipate a tax rate from continuing operations of 23.3% for the remainder of the year. For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as reported basis is now $8.78 to $9.38 or $9.08 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $10.25 to $10.85 or $10.55 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $40 million for the full year fiscal 2020 with the associated savings projected to be $15 million this year. Synergy savings from CLARCOR are still estimated to achieve a run rate of $160 million by the end of fiscal year 2020, which represents an incremental $35 million of year-end savings. In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $27 million of integration costs to achieve for LORD and Exotic and $185 million of one-time acquisition-related expenses. LORD and Exotic are expected to achieve synergy savings of $18 million this fiscal year. A reconciliation and further details of these adjustments can be found in the appendix to this morning's slides. Savings from all business realignment and acquisition costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2020 guidance at midpoint are sales are divided 48%, second half 52% -- sorry 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is split 49% first half, 51% second half. Adjusted EPS second half is -- first half second half is divided 50%, 50%. Third quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.36 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $18 million of projected business realignment expenses, $7 million of integration costs to achieve and $19 million of one-time acquisition related expenses. On slide 16, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of revised fiscal year 2020 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.55 per share at the midpoint, compared to the prior guidance of $10.50 per share. During the second quarter, stronger than guided sales together with meaningfully higher segment operating margins from the industrial segment generated a net $0.17 operating income beat. Strong gains in market adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation and lower than guided interest expense contributed a benefit of $0.08 and favorable discrete tax benefits during the quarter helped to contribute $0.07, totaling to a $0.32 EPS beat in the quarter. Updates to the second half guide result in a $0.04 increase in operating income offset by a $0.30 negative impact to operating income from the elimination of 737 MAX shipments in the second half. Updates to the below the line items resulted in a net $0.01 decline. This results in a net $0.05 increase to the fiscal 2020 full year guided earnings per share at the midpoint. On slide 17, we show the impact the acquisitions will have on both an as reported and adjusted basis for the full year. On an adjusted basis the acquisitions lower operating margin to 16.2% for total Parker from 16.6% for Legacy Parker impacted by the $100 million or 70 basis points of full year FY 2020 incremental amortization expense. For the adjusted EBITDA margins, the acquisitions provide 50 basis points of improvement, moving from 18.1% for Legacy Parker to 18.6% for total Parker. If you'll now go to slide 18, I'll turn it back to Tom for summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thanks Cathy. We're pleased with the continued progress. We are performing well for this downturn as demonstrated by our cash flow performance and our ability to raise the floor on margins. We're well on our way to delivering top-quartile financial performance as a company. I just want to remind people where we're trying to drive to as far as we're laser focused on our FY 2023 targets and those are sales growth at 150 basis points greater than global industrial production growth, segment operating margins at 19%, EBITDA margins at 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100%. And those would all culminate in driving an EPS CAGR of 10% plus. So thanks again to the global team everybody around the world for all your hard work. And with that, I'll hand it over to Liz to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is now open.
Mig Dobre:
Yes. Good morning, everyone.
Lee Banks:
Yes. Good morning, Mig.
Mig Dobre:
Maybe just very quickly some clarification on what's embedded is segment level for organic growth, especially in your industrial business?
Tom Williams:
Mig, it's Tom. So what we assumed for – I'm just going to give you for the second half with the new guide was North America at minus seven, international at minus 12, aerospace at minus 0.5 gets to the second half at a minus 7.5. And that compares to the prior guide was minus six. Big difference there being a little bit of weakness in North America but the big difference was a shift in the mix.
Mig Dobre:
Understood. Then if I may on international, I think you said negative 12 for the second half?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Yes.
Mig Dobre:
So if I'm comparing that with what you've done in – in the first half there is some deceleration there? And obviously your orders are looking a little bit different in that regard being less bad if you would. So can you help us understand kind of how you're seeing it and what's going on there?
Tom Williams:
Yes. So our thinking on – again Mig. it's Tom. Our thinking on the orders and the sales for international, first of all, you're right. So orders came in at minus six. They did improve in Q2 but that was driven mainly by Asia. And from what we can tell, a lot of that was influenced by some pull-ins in advance of Chinese New Year. So we feel these order rates may be a little bit overstated or maybe not entirely reflective of underlying market conditions. And then given the uncertainties of the Coronavirus and the fact the Chinese government has extended Chinese, New Year by one week, we actually had our Asia team just within the last 48 hours redo the second half forecast on what they thought. And their latest thinking which is obviously very fluid given what's going on there is now reflected in this new guide. And ironically it came in about the same as what we had before. We were minus 11.5 before, we were minus 12 million. But that was our thinking is that combination of the orders are a little bit over-enhanced from the pull-ins and our current intelligence-based on what's going on is reflected in this guide.
Mig Dobre:
I appreciate that. Not to put too fine a point but as we're sort of thinking about the Q3, specifically in Asia, in China, how do we think about that in terms of the negative 12 for the back half of the year? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Yes. So I'm not going to split it out necessarily by region but we have international for Q3 at about minus 16. So the worst of it hitting in Q3, you got the Chinese, New Year, the extension of that. There's some obvious reasons why Q3 might be impacted worse.
Mig Dobre:
Great. Thank you, Tom.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Mig.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Maybe I'll just start with a question on pricing. I mean you were kind of getting to the peak of the negative comps in this part of the down cycle. Are you guys seeing any pressure coming from customers? Any kind of aggressive or irrational behavior from competitors in the market out there? I know you guys are always targeting being price/cost neutral? Are you still able to maintain that at the moment? And do you think you can maintain it for the rest of the year?
Lee Banks:
Yes. Nathan, it's Lee. To answer your question is yes. As you know, our goal always is to be price/cost-neutral, margin-neutral. And I think why we're so resilient in doing that are the processes that we have? We follow the input costs through our purchase price index and we have our selling price index that we track at all the different locations. But in our forecast and what we're expecting is to be price/cost-neutral, margin-neutral.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. You guys have also -- I mean, you've taken the margin expectation in aerospace down, which I think is fairly straightforward, right? You've got less volume from the MAX, so you're not going to say the leverage on that. You did take the margin expectations in both North America and international up. Can you talk about what's going on there, whether it's internal productivity? Or what else has led to an expectation of better margins for the full year than you had previously baked into guidance?
Tom Williams:
Nathan, its Tom. I think what we're experiencing, what we said, and you saw a lot of that in the first half; I'd take North America as an example. We had some benefits from lower synergies pulling in from what we had originally expected, The Win Strategy and everything we're doing there. We've seen a lot of help from Kaizen activities at all of our plants. On international, we had a very strong Q2, driven somewhat with higher volume burst of our guide. But the same thing for international, Kaizen activities, The Win Strategy, we had the benefit of prior restructuring that is playing through for us there. And I think it just gave us confidence that when we looked at our second half that we could continue that in the second half. The organic growth is slightly different, slightly worse than the prior guide. But we didn't think it was enough to -- we felt we had enough other positives to offset that and to improve the margins.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I'll pass it on.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Joe.
Nathan Jones:
Tom, I just want to clarify the MAX comment that you made. I think you said that it impacted 2Q. And so, if it did, like, what kind of impact did it have on 2Q? And then secondly, as you think about the zero for the second half of the year, is it just fair to assume that airframers have inventory on hand and that's why the MAX is going to zero in 2H?
Tom Williams:
Yes. So let me just -- Joe, this is Tom. Glad you asked, because I wanted to give a little bit of color as to why we did what we did on the MAX. First, given Boeing's public comments about the ungrounding occurring sometime in the middle of the year, we felt that, hey, there's a lot of uncertainty there. Even Boeing doesn't fully know exactly what's going to happen with that, once suppliers will turn back on. And that we really wanted to derisk the guidance for the rest of the fiscal year by taking the MAX out. I also felt that it wasn't fair to our shareholders to have it in and then be guessing on what it's going to be and what kind of ramps it could be. I thought it was a disservice to our shareholders and that it would be much better perceived stronger by taking it completely out and showing that we could demonstrate the guidance that we're going to -- that we have here, even without the MAX. So what we did is -- so the production pause officially started January 15. However, when you look at what hit us in Q2, there was some minor slowing of orders, both on the airframe and the engine side. It was approximately $5 million in Q2. The total amount for us for the full year, including Q2 and the second half, is $150 million impact for the MAX and $50 million of earnings. Obviously, lower volume and the lack of absorption associated with that. But obviously Boeing and as well as all of our customers are really important to us. We're going to be there to support them whenever the production returns. If it happens to return sooner what we have in this guidance we'll be there for them. And in the meantime, we're reallocating our team members to other programs as much as possible to help with backlog and potentially accelerating schedules of our customers permit that. So that's really the strategy and the thinking behind the MAX.
Joe Ritchie:
That's super helpful Tom. And then maybe if you can just, kind of, talk about the North America weakness in a little bit more detail, just parsing out like what you're seeing from a distributor perspective versus what you're seeing on the heavy industry side and how you expect that to play out in your fiscal second half?
Tom Williams:
Okay. So Joe what I'll do is I'll go through North America, but I'll just maybe run through the whole company on markets, because it's typically a question people want. But our thinking on North America, we're guiding 100 bps lower than what the prior guide. So it was minus six. Now it's minus seven. I'm just talking about the second half because, obviously, that's what's left. Orders were down from -- 100 basis points from Q1 to Q2. So that's probably the most direct linkage there. We had distribution weaker. We have the December ISM at 47.2. And all those factors plus, obviously, every time we do this we do a bottoms-up. We really look at what our thinking was there. I went through international, but I wanted to make a comment about distribution when I think about North America. So distribution and the whole for the whole company was down mid-single digits about 400 basis points worse than Q1. And this declined pretty much sequentially through the quarter and really was broad-based from an end-market standpoint. International distribution was worse in North America, but about all the regions went down equally approximately going Q1 to Q2. In North America in particular, we think the holiday timing hurt. There's two Wednesdays involved there for Christmas and New Year's Day. And really what we saw with end customers is that drove extended plant shutdowns. And our distributors as a result of this broad market based decline and the extended shutdowns took the opportunity to resize their inventory. So if you think about down mid-single digits on distribution, our best intelligence and again this is an estimate it was about half of that was destocking. Half of it was tied in markets. Maybe if I go back to just total end markets, I'm just going to list all of the positives and the negatives and I'll give maybe a little more color on the specific end markets. But on the positive side for the quarter Q2 total Parker, aerospace, mining, semiconductor, lawn and turf and marine. And then minus was distribution, which was -- I was just talking about. It's not a market but an important channel to us. Mills and foundries, refrigeration, machine tools, tire and rubber, power generation, telecom, life sciences, oil and gas, automotive, heavy-duty truck, construction, ag, forestry and rail this is too long a list on the negative side. So -- but let me give you some color if I was to, kind of, lift it up to the major segments. So I talked about distribution. So now I'd just characterize industrial end markets. For those maybe not familiar, all of our industrial markets are basically things without wheels things that don't move equipment that doesn't move. That was -- that improved. So, industrial markets went from minus nine to minus 6.5, again total company. The positive side of there was low single-digit improvements in mining and semiconductor. Semiconductor is starting to come back. On the negative side, low single digits. I'm just going to give you buckets. Low single digits was mills, oil and gas. Mid-single digits was refrigeration, power gen and general industrial. And things greater than 10% declines were machine tools, rubber and tire, telecom and life science. Then on the mobile side, again equipment with wheels saw us go from minus 6.5 in Q1 to minus 14. So that was the big shift. A lot of that was driven in North America. And the positives there was mid-single-digit improvements in lawn and turf. And then on the negatives, kind of, two buckets here, high single-digit decline in forestry. But then almost all the end markets with mobile were kind of in that 10% to 20% decline range
Joe Ritchie:
No. I think I'm all good. Thanks. Thanks, Tom.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Joe.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So, I guess, maybe focusing on the North America orders, we already talked a little bit about what happened in international. But what's your view on whether or not order activity has bottomed and maybe thinking about how January has trended as a way to characterize that?
Tom Williams:
Nicole, its Tom. So if I was to kind of do what I did, I won't go into that same kind of detail for North America. But if you look at North America industrial, it went Q1 to Q2 basically about to say minus 5.5, minus 6. So basically the same quarter-over-quarter. The mobile is what declined the most. It went from minus 5 to minus 16. And all the same end markets that I just described for the total company, is what we saw there. And then on distribution, that went from minus 2 to about -- I mean, it was flat in North America to about minus 4 or so -- in Q2. So that was 400 bps in North America alone that we went down. So that was kind of how we look at North America. I think, in general, when we think about organic growth for the year, we're really -- in our guidance, we're reflecting really Q3 is kind of our bottom from what we see at this point.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay. Got it. That's helpful. Thanks, Tom. And then just a quick one on the deals. I think you guys said that you're expecting $18 million of synergies, up a little bit from your prior guidance. Can you just say what you've realized in synergies in the second quarter? And what's remaining for the second half?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. We saw a little bit of the synergies for LORD pull into the second quarter. The timing moves ahead for us, so we got them sooner than we anticipated. And so, we're then factoring that through the rest of the year as well. So, a small amount in Q2 with $18 million for the full year effect.
Nicole DeBlase:
Got it. Thanks. I'll hop it on.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nicole.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning.
Ann Duignan:
Good morning. Tom, would you just comment on the notion on that, while you've taken the downturn in aerospace because of the 737 MAX? Couldn't that also spill over into your industrial business more broadly, just from the supply chain and the supply base as they have to shut down production?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Ann, its Tom. We did factor that in. Because people who don't realize that we'd have a fair amount of work that goes that's aerospace-related and engineered materials and filtration that goes into that. So the $150 million includes the industrial piece in that. And just in round numbers about 10% of that is industrial; and the other 90% as you might imagine, the bulk of it is in the Aerospace segment. But we did factor in the amount of onboard type of work we did. And then the -- I think what data part you're referring to is the things that might be in the factories of our suppliers. That's factored into the guide we have for the rest of the business.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. That's -- I appreciate that. And then just circling back on the same topic, can you give us a breakdown, the $150 million? How much of that is Legacy Parker? And how much is Exotic Metals?
Tom Williams:
So Exotic is $16 million of the $50 million.
Cathy Suever:
$150 million.
Tom Williams:
Of the $150 million, sorry. Yeah, $60 million of the $150 million.
Ann Duignan:
$60 million of the $150 million?
Tom Williams:
Yes.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And that includes both direct shipments content on the aircraft as well as shipments to the engine?
Tom Williams:
Yes.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I appreciate that. I just wanted to get back color, and I think you’d given us most of everything I’m assuming. So, I appreciate it.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. A nice quarter. I guess two questions Tom. Just in terms of as we exit 2020, potentially comps get better when we start to see organic growth reignite again. Based on what you've done with the acquisitions and when is there -- should we be thinking about incrementals any differently? And I'm wondering if there's a difference on how to think about things Industrial versus Aerospace I guess? And then just my second question just relates to your portfolio given some of the announcements recently. One, do you see any change in the competitive landscape? Or could that be a positive for you with Eaton selling their hydraulics business? And just your view of -- is there any change in your view I guess of your portfolio in terms of potential divestitures? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Jamie, it's Tom. So I'm going to work backwards on the questions. I'll start with -- I think what you're referring to is the Danfoss Eaton announcement. I would first say we weren't surprised, given I think the portfolio that Eaton has. And I think some of our inclination as to what they might do with it. We have a lot of respect for both Danfoss and Eaton. And in our view, strong competitors make you a better business. So we welcome the challenge. We like our chances. We believe that the breadth of our technologies, the growth that we have with the motion and control technology and the Win Strategy is going to allow us to compete effectively with any company in our space. And we're confident going forward. Obviously when you have these, kind of, transitions, having done a lot of these type of acquisitions ourselves, we recognize that there's stress in the system when that happens. And there's maybe a potential opportunity to look at share gain. And so we will, obviously, be doing everything we can to optimize that and take advantage of that and good competitive tension in the system. So if I move back to maybe your other two comments from incremental MROSs, kind of, looking forward. I still think plus 30 in general is a good number if you're doing it over multiple years. But clearly coming out of a downturn as we have talked about in the past, you would expect to see that be north of a plus 30, because you're going to get some help as that volume comes up. And you're going to be only adding incremental variable cost and doing it very efficiently as you do that. So I think the first couple of quarters coming out, tends to be stronger than what I would say you'd see over a whole cycle. And then the whole goal of these acquisitions and they will but maybe I could just comment in general about them. I'm extremely pleased with the progress. We've acquired great products and technology but the best thing that we've done is the talent that's come into the organization from these two businesses. It was on full display when we had the leadership meaning we have about 80 people from both businesses and together. And if I look at LORD, LORD is ahead of what we had hoped for, low single-digit growth and that compares to a minus 6.5% for total Parker. So it's doing what we wanted. It's more resilient. And what we're seeing from the aerospace thermal management. The structural adhesives part of LORD is really doing quite nicely. We were very confident on the $125 million of cost synergies and we pulled in the synergies into this year. Now with Exotic, the team is doing a great job. The 737 MAX is out of everybody's hands. That's something we can't control. But that team there is effectively redeployed everybody that was on the MAX and we've redeployed them to the F135. And we got to do some minor CapEx to help facilitate that. But we have them on F135. We also have the repair depot starting up on the F135. And then we've got one of the big synergies which we didn't really disclose on our revenue side is the fact that we have this well-established aftermarket organization customer support operation as part of legacy Parker aerospace that can help with the commercial efforts of Exotic to go capture those legacy engines and to look for spares and repairs for all the type of products that Exotic does. And we're going to do that and we're going to try to pull them in. And everything I just described in that is not going to really help so much Exotic in FY 2020 but it's really positioned for FY 2021. And the MAX will come back. And so I think we have the benefit there. There's potentially a one-two punch with Exotic MAX goes back. And then we've also got additional people trained. Now some of the F135 will depend on our customer allowing us to accelerate the schedule. I think they have signaled that they would. But obviously, if some other supply becomes a constraint for them they might slow us down. But that's an opportunity to accelerate the F135. So that's kind of a long-winded answer on acquisitions. But if you think about them in aggregate they're coming in they're going to grow faster than the legacy Parker. And that was the whole reason why we acquired them. You see the incremental EBITDA, what it's doing for us in one of the slides that Cathy had. So we're still very positive. The MAX is a short-term blip on the path to a pretty strong future for them.
Jamie Cook:
Thank you. I appreciate the color.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Jeff Sprague:
Yes. Thank you. Good day, everyone. Just a couple of things for me. First just back to LORD, Tom. Can you address how it's performing kind of in the automotive markets? And you had pointed to kind of the ability to outgrow through thick and thin. We've heard a lot of the kind of negative automotive comments out of the 3Ms and DuPonts here this earnings season. Just wondering how things are really progressing for that slice of the business?
Tom Williams:
Yes. So – and without getting into specific numbers, if I just take the three major buckets. Aerospace is a pretty strong growth for us. And then the industrial piece would be slightly negative and automotive would be neutral to slightly positive. And what's really happening there is the technologies we have there that are more electrification type of technologies which would be thermal management. And structural adhesives are offsetting the weaknesses that we have. And the traditional adhesives and coatings they might be more supplied into the internal combustion engine. So I'm really happy with what they're doing, coming in at low single digits. And that's even factoring in some weakness in Asia tied to the Coronavirus. So those -- that's, obviously, a new element and that's an unknown still as -- and yet to be determined. But I'm really happy with what they're doing out of the gate.
Jeff Sprague:
And I was curious back to the MAX situation. You provided a little detail on the redirect to the F135 et cetera. But have you actually shut down MAX related production? Or are you continuing at some low rate to keep the line warm? How do you manage that operationally to make sure you are ready to go if you get the signal?
Tom Williams:
Well, obviously, that's a balancing act. So we redeployed the people. So we haven't lost that skill set for the most part. There's some we could not retain unfortunately, but we've retained most of them. So we have the skill set people wise. Obviously we'll make sure we maintain any of the equipment that needs to be maintained. So we're ready to go. And with our supply chain, we're making sure that they're ready and able to supply to us when we need to. So if we need to carry a little extra inventory to be ready we'll do that. And our suppliers will be ready too. But I thought it was prudent for us and for our shareholders to not be trying to chase and guessing when the MAX is going to start back up. So we didn't build it in the guidance. But, obviously, internally we're going to make sure we built a supply chain that can respond. And, obviously, Boeing needs to give us some lead time and they recognize that they will. But we will be there to respond when Boeing gives us a signal.
Jeff Sprague:
Right. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Joel Tiss:
Hey guys, how it’s going?
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Joel.
Joel Tiss:
We've gotten a lot of good information here. So just a couple of like whatever clarification I guess. Are you guys giving any updates on your debt-to-EBITDA? Like where do you expect to be by when? Or is that more for the Analyst Day?
Cathy Suever:
I can talk about that for you Joel. As we finished the quarter considering that we don't have a full 12 months of EBITDA from the acquisitions in there, we're currently at a gross debt-to-EBITDA as is four times. And our net debt is 3.6 times. We expect by the end of the year we'll have the gross debt down to 3.7 and the net debt down to 3.3. Again that's not -- that only has a sub period of EBITDA for the acquisitions in there. So it's actually -- next year will look -- quickly look a little better once we get 12 months of EBITDA.
Joel Tiss:
And is there a target before you'd look at acquisitions again? Do you need to be closer to two, or is it more 2.5?
Tom Williams:
Joel, it's Tom. I think as – 2.0 is what we'd like to get to. But, obviously, as we start to glide closer to that we're -- obviously our interest is going to get more keen. The key thing on what we've learned and it's not a new lesson over the years is you have to continually work that business development pipeline. We are working it now today as we speak, building those relationships, understanding the strategic fits to our company. And so we'll continue to do that. Even though we're not ready to action a thing, we'll continue to work that pipeline. But yes we need to get closer to two before we get back in the game.
Joel Tiss:
Okay. And just one last quick one. You -- Jamie asked about PLS and you didn't really -- you missed that part of the question. I just wondered are there any, kind of, bigger chunks that you guys are seeing that could accelerate the restructuring. Or everything is pretty much as you expected and we just keep the incremental improvement?
Tom Williams:
Joel help me with PLS?
Joel Tiss:
Product line simplification, so looking at individual product lines and having them off or finding a better owner for them?
Tom Williams:
Okay. Good. So yes, that's going to be a big but we will talk a lot about that at IR day. But the cliff notes is that still a really big part of our strategy going forward. And we've added to it was Simple by Design. So it's still looking at what I'll call organization or structural change, a number of divisions and cruise. But that has played through for the most part but we continue to look at that. But the other part of that that we'll look at is just within the divisions do we have the right staffing elements, what we call competitive staffing analysis looking at debt versus best-in-class examples. So that's item one. Item three is I think what you were using – what we would call 80-20. And that's still early days. We have lots of opportunities and that's a big part of how we're trying to simplify things, revenue complexity and the processes and structure that services that. And the third element is Simple by Design, which gets at that approximately 70% of the product cost is tied up in how we design things in the first place. So you can have the most fantastic lean system in Kaizen and doing all these other simplification things I just talked about, but a lot of your cost and your speed within your factories and your speed of service customers is stuck in concrete based on how you design the product. So we'll go through that in a lot more detail at IR Day. And we think we're one of the first people thinking differently on how we want to do that and it'll be a combination of process and software things that we'll elaborate in more detail. And that's – obviously, that's a little bit longer term because you've got to do that as you design new things. There are some things we can do going backwards with existing designs. But that will set us up nicely for margin expansion and really I think speed in the future.
Joel Tiss:
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Joel
Operator:
Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi, good morning. I think Tom you had said that destocking was about a 2.5 point drag on sales in the fiscal second quarter. So I just wondered what your guidance implies for that destock aspect in the second half please?
Tom Williams:
That one is really hard to predict exactly how destocking goes and doesn't go. To be honest I would not have expected given what we were trending before the quarter does to have it stepped down about 200 bps. We're in round numbers we're about minus 100 destocking in Q1. It's now around minus 300 in Q2. That has to eventually find equilibrium. And I would – based on probably the Q3 being our bottom, our hope is that the destocking when to hit bottom in Q3. And then everything else from our distribution channel would be end market-related as we go into Q4.
Julian Mitchell:
That's helpful. Thank you. And then my second question just on the international industrial segment. You gave a lot of good color on the top line pieces moving around there. I just wanted to ask on the margins because it looks as if – in terms of the margin rate your full year guide for margins in international implies a step-down sequentially in the second half in the first half or second half versus Q2, even though the revenues just in dollar terms should be going up. So I just wondered if there's something around mix or something with the Asian production impact that you were talking about earlier that dragged down the margin sequentially even with that higher revenue?
Tom Williams:
Yes. You hit the nail on the head. So percentage-wise organic goes down 11.5 to minus 12 for international. But I think in particular, what you're seeing there, is we've got a little -- our assumption is a little weaker decremental, go from a decremental in the low 20s in the first half to kind of the low 30s in the second half for Asia, really influenced by how we looked at what the risks associated and the uncertainties around, in particular, Asia, the Coronavirus and just the unknowns there. Recognizing that as you extend Chinese New Year shutdown, nothing's happening there. And then when you start back up, it's going to be much more inefficient. Our belief on the start-up than in previous times coming off of the Chinese New Year. So that's really the difference, Julian.
Julian Mitchell:
That’s great. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Andy Casey:
Thanks a lot. First question on Europe. It doesn't seem like that's trending any different than you expected, but are you seeing -- we're seeing some improving macro stuff. Are you seeing anything on the ground that would follow that?
Tom Williams:
Hey, Andy, it's Tom. We saw some slight improvement in Europe. If I look at EMEA as a total region, industrial went from minus 13 to minus 11 in Q2. So still soft, but got a little bit better. There was no particular end market that kind of lifted up sand. That was what drove it, just was kind of really a whole breadth of it getting a little bit better. Mobile was basically the same, minus 13, slight improvement minus 12.5. I'm rounding to the nearest half. So I would say, fairly consistent with some minor improvement.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. And then, I think, last quarter you called out phase three, phase one -- sorry, phase three, phase four being 28% and 48% respectively. It sounds like North American distribution had a little bit of a lag down. Could you kind of help us with how phase three and phase four trended in Q2 and how that may change if you exclude the North American distribution piece?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Andy, so that distribution -- as distribution goes, it really influences these four phases. I think what we've seen now and looking at these phases, things can move kind of jock you back and forth between phase three and phase four, depending on what's going on. And that's what we saw in this last quarter. Distribution went from phase four in the prior quarter to phase three. And distribution, being like 37 points of our -- excluding aerospace, it influences it quite a bit. So, if I just contrast for you phase one that's accelerating growth was plus 3. I'm talking about the current quarter. Decelerating growth, phase two, was plus 17% -- or 17% of our sales. Accelerating decline in phase three was 72% and that main reason why that moved higher, was because distribution moved into there and automotive moved in there. Automotive was in phase four. The balance being 8% of our sales was in phase four decel and decline. So the big shift predominantly was distribution and automotive moving from four to three.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thank you. And then, one last one and this isn't an attempt, because irrespective of what, just, I'll be at the Investor Day. But should we expect any significant changes in the longer-term goals that you previously outlined outside of potentially EBITDA margins, which are -- look on track to maybe exceed it? Given a big slug of amortization that you're carrying now, the EBIT margin seems like it might be more of a challenge. But anyway should -- your lineup looks great. It looks like you're going to be providing a lot of detail. But at the end of it, should we expect significant changes in the longer term trajectory?
Tom Williams:
This is Tom. You're very perceptive. Obviously the amortization headwinds Cathy gave numbers by segment. If you look at that on a steady state round numbers, it's about 100 bps of headwind that we now have with amortization before -- that we didn't have before we set those goals. But I would -- the short answer to your question is, no, you should not see any big changes. But, obviously, EBITDA needs to be looked at given what's happened. And we will look at that. And we're looking forward to seeing everybody, because I think you're going to see an excited team with an exciting lineup with I think more information than we've ever shared with you. And we're going to get a chance to talk about the Win Strategy 3.0 and a lot of things that I think are going to be very compelling to people want to be excited about our current shareholders and then hopefully future shareholders to want to own Parker-Hannifin.
Andy Casey:
Great. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Andy. Liz, I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our last question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Stephen Volkmann:
Well, just slid it in. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning.
Stephen Volkmann:
Can I just ask Tom to go back to something you were talking about earlier when I think Joel was asking you about product line simplification. And you talked about 80/20. From a lot of other companies who have instituted this, a big part of the process was having off a fairly chunky size of revenues that might be underperforming or might just not have the potential to perform over time that you might have thought. You've made lots and lots of acquisitions. So I guess I was just trying to get a little more clarity there. Can you picture Parker going through a process of divesting a significant chunk of revenue to, kind of, prepare the ship for higher returns and higher growth going forward? Or is the portfolio where you want it and there might be some tweaking but nothing major?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Steve, it's Tom. So that's a good question. And actually that's probably what Joel was getting at and I didn't completely answer him. I think the short answer is, no, you're not going to see any major chunks come off. You might see some minor tweaks. The big difference between say how we're deploying 80/20. We're deploying it the same way that people that you've seen to it before like ITW et cetera. The difference is in our portfolio. Our portfolio is built with a lot of complementary interconnectivity there. And with 60% of our revenue coming from customers that buy from four or more of our technologies, our revenue in the tail is very much linked to other revenue throughout the company. So it requires a little more thoughtful approach. We can't just lop off those tails saying hey that's the end of it because the tail for one division might be an A item for a different division. So we're doing that for a very thoughtful standpoint. We will still get the same kind of speed and margin improvements. We're just -- you're not going to see really any, kind of, revenue changes on that. We don't see it as a headwind to revenue. It will be neutral on the revenue side. You might see some minor things that we do on that, but most of it is going to be just helping customers through different ways to deliver it. Different pricing things are different things we can do on alternative part numbers to satisfy their demand. We want to still take care of our customers and create a great experience for them. We're just going to find more efficient ways to do it.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. Good color. I appreciate it. Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Stephen. Okay. This concludes our question-and-answer session and the earnings call. Thank you everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have further questions. Thank you. Enjoy the rest of your day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advise that today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference to your speaker today, Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, madam.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Joule. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Parker-Hannifin’s first quarter fiscal year 2020 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today’s presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company’s investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today’s call. On slide number two, you will find the company’s Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning’s materials and are also posted on Parker’s website at phstock.com. Today’ agenda appears on slide number three. We will begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing highlights from the first quarter. Following Tom’s comments, I will provide a review of the company’s first quarter performance, together with the revised guidance for the full year fiscal 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we will open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number four and Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody, and welcome to the call. We appreciate your interest in Parker. So let me start with the first quarter highlights and I am going to start like I normally do on safety. We had 25% reduction in recordable safety incidents year-over-year, which is a great start to the year. When you look at it from a safety incident rate, so for those who aren’t familiar with this, this is the number of safety incidents per 100 people. We came in at 0.46, which is the top quartile number, top quartile happens to be 0.5. So this is the first time in history of our company that we came in on the top quartile for incident rates. So we are very proud of that. Safety for us is a core value and zero accidents is not an aspirational goal. It’s really an expectation that we are going to operate the business and lead the business in such a way that we are going drive a zero accident culture. And if you have seen, there’s a linkage between safety and business performance, and you can see that if you look at our numbers over the last several years and plot its safety and our financial improvement, you will see they went hand in hand. So switching to financial results, Q1 was a strong quarter on margins and on cash against a challenging macro environment on sales. Sales declined 4% and that composition was a minus 3 organic, minus 1.5 on currency and a plus 0.5 on acquisitions. Total segment operating margin remained level at 17.0% reported. Adjusted segment operating margins increased 10 basis points to 17.3 basis points. On a reported basis, EBITDA margin increased to 70 basis points to 18.4 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased 110 basis points and reached 19.1%. So really when you look at it operating margin or EBITDA margin, really excellent performance at this part of the cycle. EPS reported was $2.60 and on an adjusted basis it was $2.76. We had a very strong quarter on cash flow. Cash flow from operations came in at 13.5% of sales. We had a record as far as cash flow from operations in terms of dollars at $449 million and free cash flow was 12.0%, and when you look at free cash flow conversion that was 118%. So, really, really strong quarter on cash. We had a number of exciting announcements in the quarter. We launched Win Strategy 3.0. So that’s the third revision of the Win Strategy. This follows the second revision we did in 2015 and we launched a new purpose statement for the company and we closed the LORD and Exotic acquisitions. So we have been busy in the quarter. And we are excited to welcome the LORD and Exotic team members to the Parker team. The joint integration teams have been working hard in preparation for the closings and they are hitting the ground running as we speak. And you heard me talk about the acquisitions are transformational to Parker’s portfolio, really strengthening engineered materials and aerospace with high growth, high margin businesses that will definitely be more resilient over the business cycle. Our global Parker teams are very energized by all these announcements between the Win Strategy, purpose and these acquisitions so we are excited about the future. Now switching to the outlook, we advised guidance for FY ‘20, we have seen a market shift within the last 90 days as reflected in weekend order entry, primarily driven by macro conditions and trade certainties. So when you look at total sales for Parker in FY ‘20 are expected to be flat year-over-year at the midpoint. With guidance now, these midpoint numbers at minus 6 organic, minus 1 for currency and plus 7 on acquisitions. Segment operating margin guidance is now at 15.2% as reported at the midpoint and the adjusted midpoint is now 16.3%. I would just call your attention there’s two important impacts on there, when you look at it from a partial year as the amortization of the two deals from a partial year standpoint for FY 2020, that impacts us by 70 basis points, when you look at it on a full 12 months, there’s 100 basis points of deal amortization as a headwind on margins. Business realignment expenses are expected to increase to $40 million. This is reflective of the current macro conditions. This was $20 million in the prior guide, and, of course, our guidance now includes LORD and Exotic Metals forming for the balance of the year. And we will go through discussing markets and the guidance assumptions in more detail during the Q&A. So let’s switch to cash flow and margin resilience. So, hopefully, you saw on the cash numbers in my comments just a moment ago, cash flow was very strong, record numbers. And then when you look at the operating and EBITDA margin performance and I am going to compare it to 2015 and 2016, so the last downturn we experienced and we will look at this legacy Parker without acquisitions. So it allows us to do an apples-to-apples comparison. So FY ‘16, which would have been the worst year in that downturn on an adjusted operating margin was 14.8% and then FY ‘20 guidance is 16.6% the midpoint. So when you look at that delta, that’s an improvement of 180 basis points. On adjusted EBITDA FY ‘16 it was 14.7%. Our current guide at the midpoint is 18.2%. So that’s a 350 basis point improvement. So, clearly, raising the floor on margins when you compare the 15%, 16% downturn to what we are experiencing now. We fully anticipate to do double-digit cash flow from operations for the full fiscal year like we have been doing for the last 18 years and really this performance is driven by a combination of factors. The new Win Strategy, which we introduced in 2015 is propelling our performance. All the previous restructuring activities we have done, which has positioned us to be a more agile and lean operating company. So let’s move to slide five and talk about the future. We are very positive about the future and I think we are absolutely poised to generate nice earnings growth after we clear these near-term macro conditions. A couple things influencing our confidence on the earnings potential, Win Strategy 3.0 and the purpose statement represents some important changes for the company, plus we have added two great businesses via these acquisitions. And actually in my view the timing of these acquisitions couldn’t be any better during the soft part of the cycle there’s clear advantages here. We have the capacity to digest these much easier than when we were digesting CLARCOR we were trying to ramp-up the base business, as well as digest CLARCOR. And when you look at the timing, when you look at the integration teams hitting their stride, it’s about the same time the markets will start to turn for us in approximately nine months and both of those factors will drive earnings growth as we look into the future. We are going to be hosting an Investor Day March 12, 2020 in New York City and during that Investor Day we are going to showcase Win Strategy 3.0 and the purpose statement. So we will give you a lot more color on the key strategic changes for the future. We are going to highlight all six operating groups and in the past we have highlighted one group and last time we highlighted three groups. So for the first ever we are going to give you insights to all six groups. You will see the entire company and we will go through the three last acquisitions, CLARCOR, LORD and Exotic. So just a quick reminder, which is on this page as you see the winning format for Parker, our competitive differentiators the Win Strategy now 3.0, the third revision of that, which is our business system, you couple that with our decentralized divisional structure. In my view, that’s the best of both worlds. You got a certainly led business system that’s deployed locally with that closeness to the P&L. The breadth of our portfolio and technology is very interconnected, strong intellectual property, long product life cycles, very balanced between OEM and aftermarket with the best distribution channel in the motion control space, low CapEx requirements to actually generate growth and productivity. And all this equate -- ends up culminating in being able to generate a lot of cash and being able to deploy on the best we can for shareholders. So, we have a lot of confidence on our ability to achieve the FY ‘20 financial targets. I just want to thank all the global teams listening in for their hard work, their continued and dedicated effort. And I will hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter and the guidance.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Tom. I’d like you to now refer to slide number six. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $2.76, compared to $2.84 for the same quarter a year ago. Adjustments from the fiscal year 2020 as reported results totaled $0.16, including before tax amounts of business realignment charges of $0.04, acquisition costs to achieve of $0.04 and acquisition transaction related expenses of $0.14, offset by the tax effective these adjustments of $0.06. Prior year first quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.05. The details of which are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. On slide seven, you will find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.84 for the first quarter of fiscal ‘19 to $2.76 for the first quarter of this year. We have benefited $0.02 per share in operating income from Exotic Metals Forming Company since closing on that acquisition September 16th. For Legacy Parker, a $166-million decline in sales contributed to a $0.15 reduction in operating income. The teams did a great job of controlling costs with lower volume by sustaining a 15% decremental margin for the quarter. Incremental interest expense on the debt borrowed for the two acquisitions resulted in a $0.15 decline in the current earnings per share. Interest income from the pre-acquisition investments of that cash benefited the current quarter $0.09. Lower other expense of $0.13 came from several one-time gains in the current year and by not repeating several one-time losses from last year. Lower corporate G&A contributed $0.01, while fewer favorable discreet tax benefits in current quarter resulted in a higher tax rate causing $0.12 of incremental tax expense. Finally, our lower share count benefited the quarter $0.09. Slide eight shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Organic sales decreased year-over-year by negative 3.3%. Currency had a negative impact of minus 1.5%. These declines were partially offset by a positive impact of 0.6% from the September acquisition of Exotic. Despite declining sales, total adjusted segment operating margin improved to 17.3% versus 17.2% last year. This 10-basis-point improvement reflects the operating costs improvements teams have been working hard on, combined with additional positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives. On slide nine, we are showing the small benefit Exotic had on the first quarter FY ‘20 results post-close on September 16th. You can see they contributed $21 million in sales and $3 million in operating income on an adjusted basis during this brief stub period. Exotic results are included in the Aerospace Systems segment. Moving to slide 10, I will discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales were down 3.2%. Currency had a small impact on sales of negative 0.2%. Even with lower sales, operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was an impressive 17.3% of sales versus 16.6% in the prior year. North America continued to deliver improved margins, which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements, as well as synergies from CLARCOR and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to Diversified Industrial International segment on slide 11, organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 8.7%, currency had a negative impact of minus 3.9%. Operating income for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.9% of sales versus 17.0% in the prior year, a decremental margin of 25%. The teams continue to work on controlling costs during the more difficult drops in volume by utilizing tools of our Win Strategy initiatives. I will now move to slide 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 8.2% for the first quarter as a result of growth in all of the platforms, with the strongest growth in Military OEM and the Commercial Aftermarket. In addition, the Aerospace segment sales increased $21 million or 3.7% from the addition of the Exotic acquisition. Operating margin for the first quarter was 20% of sales versus 19.5% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of higher volume in all the platforms, lowered development costs and good progress on the Win Strategy initiatives. On slide 13, we report cash flow from operating activities. Cash flow from operating activities was a first quarter record of $449 million or 13.5% of sales. This compares to 10.3% of sales for the same period last year after last year’s number is adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution. That’s a year-over-year increase of 25%. Free cash flow for the current quarter was 12% of sales and the conversion rate to net income was 118%. Moving to slide 14, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, these orders results exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Continued declines in the industrial markets drove total orders to drop 2% for the quarter-end. This year-over-year decline is made up of a 6% decline from Diversified Industrial North America, 10% decline from Diversified Industrial International orders, offset by a very positive 22% increase from Aerospace Systems orders. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined on slide number 15. This guidance has been revised to align to current macro conditions, and now includes the impact of the LORD and Exotic acquisitions. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year with the help from acquisitions are now expected to remain flat compared to prior year. Anticipated full year organic change at the midpoint is a decline of 6%. Currency is expected to have a negative 1.1% impact on sales and acquisitions will add 7.4% to the current year. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended September 30, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of this fiscal year. For Total Parker, as reported, segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.0% and 15.5%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.0% and 16.25%. We have not adjusted for the incremental amortization of approximately $100 million, which we will incur for the remainder of this year as a result of the two acquisitions. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. The first quarter tax rate was favorably impacted by discrete items which we don’t forecast. We are anticipating a tax rate from continuing operations of 23.3% for quarters two through four. For the full year, the guidance range for earnings per share on an as-reported basis is now $8.53 to $9.33 or $8.93 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $10.10 to $10.90 or $10.50 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $40 million for the full year fiscal 2020, with the associated savings projected to be $15 million. Synergy savings from CLARCOR are still estimated to achieve a run rate of $160 million by the end of fiscal 2020, which represents an incremental $35 million of year end savings. In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $27 million of integrated costs to achieve for LORD and Exotic and $200 million of onetime acquisition-related expenses. LORD and Exotic are expected to achieve synergy savings of $15 million this fiscal year. A reconciliation and further details of these adjustments can be found in the Appendix to this morning’s slides. Savings from all business realignment and acquisition costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2020 guidance at the midpoint are a split first half, second half of 47%, 53% for all sales, adjusted segment operating income and adjusted EPS. All three we expect to be split 47%, 53%. Second quarter fiscal 2020 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.22 per share at the midpoint. This excludes $15 million of projected business realignment expenses and $167 million of acquisition related expenses and costs to achieve for both LORD and Exotic. On slide 16, you will find a reconciliation of the major components of revised fiscal year ‘20 adjusted EPS guidance of $10.50 per share at the midpoint, compared to the prior guidance of $11.90 per share. Starting with just the legacy business, a $0.10 per share beat in the first quarter is quickly going to be offset by the challenging macro conditions facing the rest of the fiscal year. A drop of nearly $800 million in forecasted sales at the midpoint is driving a decline of $1.44 in operating income for the rest of the year. Interest expense in our previous guide included the interest on $2.3 billion of bonds we were holding for the acquisitions. Since then, we have borrowed additional term loans and commercial paper to complete those acquisitions. Now that both acquisitions are closed, we have allocated $0.72 of interest expense to the acquisitions, which includes the interest on the bonds, the term loans and the new commercial paper, causing a relief of $0.29 of interest expense within the Legacy business. Also, in our previous guide, we had an assumption of earning $0.35 from interest income on the cash from the bonds. That cash has now been used for the acquisition so the other expense line, which includes interest income has been reduced going forward. And finally, within the Legacy business, we are anticipating a slightly higher tax rate for the rest of the year, which will drop earnings per share $0.03, resulting in revised Legacy Parker adjusted guidance of $10.50. Exotic is estimated to contribute $0.28 and LORD $0.44 to operating income for the year, inclusive of the additional combined $100 million amortization expense we will be incurring. Offsetting this will be the $0.72 of interest expense related to the debt for these acquisitions. All in, this leaves $10.50 consolidated adjusted earnings per share at the midpoint for our guide for fiscal 2020. On slide 17, we show the impact the acquisitions will have on both an as reported and adjusted basis. On an adjusted basis, the acquisitions’ lower operating margin to 16.3% for total Parker from 16.6% for Legacy Parker, impacted by $100 million of amortization expense. For adjusted EBITDA margins, the acquisitions provide 50 basis points of improvement, moving from 18.2% for Legacy Parker to 18.7% for Total Parker. For those of you building forecast models, we have included more details regarding the LORD and Exotic impact on the total year guidance in the appendix. You will now go to slide number 18. I will turn it back to Tom for summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. So we are very pleased with our progress. We are going to perform well with this downturn, as demonstrated by our cash flow performance and raising the floor on operating margins. And we are well on our way to being that top-quartile company we want to achieve and being best-in-class. As just a reminder, where we are trying to drive to, we want to transform the company to achieve targets we have set out in FY ‘23 of growing organically 150 basis points greater than global industrial production growth, segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100% and EPS CAGR over that time period of 10% plus. So again thanks to everybody all the global team members around the world for your hard work. And with that, I will hand it over to Joule to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Tom, it seems like you guys have taken maybe a bit more negative outlook going forward over the next three quarters here than some of your peers have. I think you mentioned you were planning on three more quarters of downturn here. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about what’s going on in the end markets and your expectations around why you are thinking this downturn is as long as you guys have seemed to built into guidance here?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Nathan, it’s Tom. And I am sure this is question top of mind for everybody. So let me -- I will start by going through kind of what was behind the guide, then I will finish with a summary of end markets. So it starts first with our Q1 orders and you have seen that minus 2 total company, but in particular, minus 6 North America and minus 10 internationally. And then you got to look at other external indicators that are typically flow-through in our orders, three months to six months out. Those things like the ISMs and the PMIs. So the U.S. ISM had 47.8 for September, that was a 10-year low as everybody knows. Europe’s PMI of 45.7 for September, and of course, Germany, our third largest country at 41.7, obviously, feeling the impact of the trade related uncertainties. Asia PMIs are weak. And so what we look, part of what influenced our forecast was the trend of orders through the quarter. So August and September were about the same, but they were weaker than July. And then as you look at October, while October’s not done yet, we look at October on a daily basis, we saw further softening from that August and September rate. So put those factors into also our bottoms up latest look from the divisions and our view yielded a more challenging macro environment. So I will give you -- I will peel back the organic piece a little bit more, and I will give you some of my thoughts as to why we did what we did. So you have seen organic at the midpoint at minus 6. So that composition is North America at minus 6, International at minus 11.5 and Aerospace at plus 4.5. So the first half, second half organic is both minus 6, so minus 6 for first half, minus 6 for the next half. And so given that organic growth was minus 3 in Q1, that implies that our low point or the bottoming out of Parker is somewhere between Q2 and Q3 in this guidance. And we also looked -- and you remember I talked about the pressure curves last time and we had baked about a 15-month duration. This now looks like it’s an 18-month duration, a whole fiscal year, that’s a difference versus the prior guide. When we look at the four phases of growth that we have talked about in the past. We have got -- the markets are definitely moving through those phases. The largest phase is now in Phase 4, decelerating growth at 48%. That last quarter, that was at minus 10. So that’s encouraging that you are starting to move through that. When we look at Phase 3, which is accelerating decline, that used to be 67% last quarter. Now it’s 28%. So that’s also an important point. So that’s -- all these things are signaling some kind of a bottoming for us about the midpoint of our FY ‘20, so maybe now just to kind of walk on the prior guide to the new guide. So the prior guide was minus 1.5 at the midpoint, again, I am talking about organic and the new guide’s minus 6, so that’s up 450-basis-point step down. Our order step down 200 basis points, again, I am focused on the industrial piece, where North America and international step down 200 basis points. And then we had to try to project out those ISMs and PMIs I just described that are pretty negative and they are going to flow through on orders anywhere over the next couple of months to maybe a maximum of six months. And then, also, looking at the October orders that weekend from what you see in September. So, that kind of made up the balance that you got 200 that’s already declined with orders. The balance of 250 made up of that projecting those PMIs and ISMs into our future orders and what we saw in October. So that kind of gives you a walk down. So maybe if I give you comments on the end markets for Q1. I will start with the positives. Aerospace continues to be very strong, lawn and turf, forestry and marine, and pretty much all the others are negative. So probably the best way for me to summarize the others is to take them into major buckets. So distribution I recognize is not a market but it’s an important channel for us. Distribution actually got a little bit better. I am talking about going from Q4 to Q1 year-over-year. It came in Q1 at about a minus 2. And in Q4, it was minus 2.5. That composition, North America got better, Europe stayed about the same and Asia-Pacific got worse. The industrial end markets stayed relatively the same both were minus 9, minus 9 in Q4 and minus 9 in Q1. And the mobile market is where we saw the step down. Mobile markets went from a minus 3 in Q4 to a minus 6. In particular, what stepped down in mobile was ag, construction, heavy-duty truck and material handling. So, that’s a quick run through -- that’s at the global level what I was describing as far as the end markets and what caused us to move the guidance like we did.
Nathan Jones:
I appreciate the transparency and the color there. Just moving away from things that are happening in the short-term here, I am sure there will be plenty of questions for that on you. Maybe you could just talk a little bit about what’s changed in the Win Strategy 3.0 from Win Strategy 2.0?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. And I’d be happy to do that, because that’s going be very exciting for the company. And obviously, when we have you all together, we will go through this in a lot more detail, but if I would just paraphrase the key points, so underneath engagement, going to continue to expand the whole ownership concept with the idea that the more people we have thinking and acting like an owner the better the company’s going to perform. But a big change on people is Kaizen and we will take you through all the things we are doing on Kaizen as far as our approach to it, who we are working with and the results we are seeing. Under customer experiences, a lot more emphasis on digital leadership, and we will expand what we mean by that ad a new metric, which is not too dissimilar to what we had before, but we have a new metric called composite likelihood recommend, which is going to be a mixture of on-time delivery and feedback from customers and distributors. Earnings and profitable growth, we have this new strategic initiative called strategic positioning, which we will give you more color on. New product blueprinting underneath innovation and two new metrics for innovation, product vitality and mix and gross margin for the product vitality and we will explain more about that when we are in person. And then underneath simplification, a very new powerful concept called simplified design, where we focus on simplifying the design of our products to reduce the building material complexity, the inventory and planning and scheduling complexity, and the ability to produce it, recognizing about 70% of our product costs are tied up in how we design it. So we will talk a lot more about that when we have you all there. We will be somewhat careful on simple by design, because I don’t want to teach my competitors how to do that, but we will give you enough color since you all know that it’s real and there’s some big enhancements to the company both on a growth and a margin standpoint.
Nathan Jones:
I appreciate all the color and all the transparency there. I will pass it on. Thanks very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning. I am not sure if there were any questions left after all of that color. You gave us global end markets, industrial versus mobile, would you mind breaking those up by region, please, or any notable differences across the major markets that have decline ag, construction, heavy duty, material and handling?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Ann, this is Tom. So I will give you the high points by region. So North America was about 3% organic decline, on the positive side was machine tools, heavy duty truck, forestry and lawn and turf, flat was distribution on automotive. And then on the negative side, we had low single digits was mining, telecom and life sciences, mid single-digit decline, these are all declines, refrigeration, mills and foundries and tires. And then switching to the mobile markets, mid single-digit declines was construction and marine and mid-teen declines was ag, material handling and rail. So, again, I had mentioned that distribution fared better North America than any of the other regions as far as how it performed. Then in Europe came in about a minus 7 for the quarter. On the positive side was refrigeration, power, semicon, life science and oil and gas. And then on the negative side, starting with the industrial end markets we had a couple that were greater than 20%, mills and foundries, machine tools, obviously, Europe being more export sensitive feeling the impact of trade uncertainties. Those are very trade-centric type of end markets. Mid-teen declines was mining, tire and rubber, distribution came in around minus 4.5 about the same as it was versus prior period. And mobile, we had low single digit declines in construction and ag and about 10% in heavy duty truck and auto. So, actually mobile fared okay in Europe and the industrial markets suffered worse in Europe. And then in Asia on the positive side, Asia came in a 12% decline for Q1 and on the positive side were oil and gas, mining and marine, although, declines distribution was down about 5.5 and on the industrial space, we had about mid-teen declines out of mills, refrigeration, machine tools greater than 20 on some of those big secular end markets like powergen, semicon and, of course, telecom being somewhat impacted by the Huawei challenges. And then on the mobile side is where we saw some of the steepest declines greater than 20 in construction, ag, material handling and rail. So you can see that mobile feeling the worst in Asia-Pacific. So that’s quick spin to the regions.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And then just as a follow up, I think you have already answered this, but are you seeing any signs of, I hate to use the word we use every time coming up, but any green shoots anywhere?
Tom Williams:
Well, what has been nice is that distribution got a little bit better. So we like that the fact that that went into Phase 4 and we had a number of other things moving into Phase 4, automotive and life sciences and oil and gas. So and actually powergen and semicon, even though they are down mid-teens for us, the fact they went into Phase 4, I always like when things move into Phase 4 because guess what the next phase is, accelerating growth. So that’s encouraging. And we still had the ones that were strong and continue to be strong like aerospace, lawn and turf, we are seeing some seasonal help there and forestry with all the paper related goods tied to e-commerce has continued to be strong. So those are what I would say as indicators. Again, for us it’s -- what we are signaling with this guidance is a bottom forming for us. I can’t call it bottom for anybody else but a bottom for us is somewhere in the middle of our fiscal year.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I will leave it there in the interest of time. I will get back in queue. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joel Tiss of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Joel Tiss:
Hi. How’s it going?
Cathy Suever:
Hi Joel.
Joel Tiss:
I just wonder on the last discussion and super duper color there. Can you just give us any sense of how you take -- it feels like things are a little worse now or maybe in the next couple of months’ future, because of inventory reductions. How do you take the amplification of that in the near-term out of your forward guidance, I am just curious how to think about that.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Joel, it’s Tom again. So the destocking it’s always a tough question. But the one area where we do have good data on is North America distribution and you have heard both Lee and I talk about this in the past that it’s been the destocking has been improving by about 100 bps and that’s actually what happened again. So to refresh people’s memory in Q3 of 2019 it was down 300 bps of destocking, Q4 was 200 bps and now Q1 was 100 bps. So we had guided to that we felt distribution was going to at least North America was going to get into somewhat of equilibrium at the end of the calendar year, so the end of Q2. But we clearly are seeing destocking at the OEMs, especially the mobile OEM’s destocking and how long that takes to play it through is very difficult, because we don’t have the kind of visibility into that that we have with the U.S. distribution. But what we are guiding is very hard to split end-market demand versus destocking, what we gave you is kind of our view all-in of this impact.
Joel Tiss:
And then just like a strategic question and not so much thinking about a forecast, just thinking about how do we think about Parker’s earnings resiliency going forward, like beyond the obvious, okay? Aerospace is a bigger part of the company, but like some of the ways that you guys think about it, if that could help us? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Joel, Tom. That’s a good question and I am actually glad that you asked it. Because we have been working very hard at this, as you might imagine and there’s a number of factors. First, it would start with some of the portfolio moves that we have made over the last number of years. CLARCOR, LORD and Exotics, so let me give you some for instances. So when we look at our order entry without getting into things that I don’t want to disclose publicly, our filtration platform is holding up much better than the rest of the industrial platform and that was by design, with CLARCOR, with the density in aftermarket. So that is -- it’s living up to its billing and what we had hoped for. LORD is coming in that -- with about a 4% organic growth and that compares to what we just told you or guiding to a minus 6 for Parker. And Exotics’s growth is coming in around 11% and so that’s better than Parker and better than Parker Aerospace. So you have got some portfolio things that are -- that we are doing that drives resilience and enhance organic growth. And then you have heard us talk about what we have been doing on distribution, growing international distribution in particular and we have changed that mix from one, we started with Win Strategy 2.0. We were at 35% international mix and distribution and now it’s 40%. So that doesn’t seem like a lot. But moving that number, 100 bps a year, is meaningful, that enhances margins and it provides more resilience, again, because our channel there is servicing primarily aftermarket. We are doing a lot of things on innovation, which will give you a lot more color with 3.0 when we see it all in March. But the new product blueprinting, product vitality and mix, our gross margin that we are tracking on these products are all designed, because if you look at our innovation growth, it is growing faster than the base business. So it’s going to hold up better in a downturn. The things we are trying to do to drive customer experience are really important because you can’t really grow with a customer if you don’t give them a good experience. And then all the things we have been doing operating-wise, simplification, lien, supply chain, et cetera and now Kaizen to make the company more agile and just a better operating company. So those would be the things that I would say on the topline and then just from operating standpoint, how we are going to get to those FY ‘23 targets.
Joel Tiss:
Great. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Joel.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. I guess just a couple questions. I guess the first one, just understanding the guide. The international -- or the implied international adjusted margins I guess fall off a little more than I would have expected in the remaining nine months of the year. Understanding there’s a lot of moving parts. But is there any way you can sort of help me -- help us with what the puts and takes are there besides increasing amort? And then, just obviously the cash flow in the quarter was very strong and as we are in sort of a slowdown here, leverage becomes more topical. So just, Tom, how we should think about cash flow for 2020, whether there’s any structural improvements we should be looking for. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
So, Jamie, let me start. I will have Cathy add on as far as debt and maybe comment on cash flow. One thing I want to try to make sure everybody understands. This new guide has got still some really good decremental margins in it and we have always -- if you benchmark companies, which I know you all do this, a minus 30 decremental is still best-in-class decremental. So I am just going to read to you total decrementals for the company, Q2 through the rest of the year. So Q2 -- and these are approximate, these are at the midpoint, there’s going be a range around these numbers, 27% decremental, Q3 a 28% decremental, Q4 a 23% decremental. So we end up with a full year of about a 25% decremental. So, those are really, I think, very excellent performance given that if you look at industrial, it’s going to be down minus 6 North America and minus 11.5 on international. That’s why international’s is a little bit worse. On its decrementals, North America is coming in around 24 and internationals at 29. And it’s because it’s about a 2x difference on volume and so that’s creating a lot more challenges. And then, in addition to the volume side, international has currency, which we have always struggled to identify currency impact on financials and we have -- we basically decided not to try to figure -- to try to communicate that because you can’t get a consistent number with it. But we do all know that when currency becomes a headwind to us, it becomes a pressure point on margins. So that’s another factor for international. On cash flow, I will hand it over to Cathy. I would just - I would have shareholders rest assured that that 18 years of 10% plus CFOA is going to turn into 19 years, because we have got a proven track record of being able to work with working capital. And these operating margins, like you heard me talk about in the opening comments are 180 basis points better than our last downturn. So we have better operating margins and we will work the working capital like we normally do. Cathy, have you got anything to add on.
Cathy Suever:
Yeah. Jamie, we finished quarter end at a leveraged gross debt-to-EBITDA of 3.6. We did bring in a small amount of additional debt in the form of term loan when we -- to be ready to -- to close LORD this past week and so it’s going to go up slightly. But if you look historically, we do have a great track record of managing the working capital very well during a down cycle. So, we are pretty confident. In addition to that, both LORD and Exotic have a history of very strong cash flow stronger than Parker, so they will be great contributors to it. And we are confident we would be at a level that we have - that we were with CLARCOR when we closed that deal and we brought that down very quickly and we feel that we can do the same, even though we are seeing things slowdown Also keep in mind, we do carry about $1 billion of international cash, so our net debt-to-EBITDA was actually 2.1 at the end of the quarter.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I appreciate the color.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
Hi. Thank you. Just looking at the organic growth first half, second half, obviously, the second half, a big change from used to be up 1 to negative 6 now. Can you take us through your thoughts on how you see orders playing out underneath that decline? I mean, it seems like the second quarter, you are expecting the biggest organic decline, but the second half is still pretty healthy at down 6. I mean, healthy meaning a large decline. So, I am just trying to get a sense of how you are viewing the order patterns underneath that negative 6 in fiscal second half?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. David, it’s Tom. And that’s where the forecast gets far more challenging the he further that you go out. But really we are trying to project some of those macro indicators that I mentioned in my comments. U.S. ISM, Germany’s number, Asia’s PMI, rest of Europe PMI’s, et cetera, recognizing as we plotted those historically, they tend to lag and impact our orders three to six months out. So we know what we saw weakening in October, which that’s going to influence Q2 and then, these other macro indicators three to six months out, starts to impact the second half and so that was the thought process behind that. But it does become more challenging as we try to figure that out, because our backlog doesn’t carry us outside of Aerospace. It doesn’t carry us out that far, so we had to kind of look at historical trends and lagging periods between these macro indicators of what we do.
David Raso:
Yeah. I am just trying to think how you thought about managing your own inventory through the end of the year and that interplay between, okay, the second half’s a lot weaker than what we thought, but we do see some bottoming process and that’s how we are managing, be it not even just inventory but how you are thinking about pricing. That usually gets announced January 1st and so forth. I mean, is it fair to say at this stage you are not thinking of the orders improving much in the back half fiscally and just the comps get a lot easier. So, I think for a lot of people seeing the cut through the organic is obviously not pleasant. But if you felt the orders were improving in the back half to some degree, you can call it temporary. So what you are speaking to the businesses is it’s kind of a temporary macro environment. I know it’s hard to call. I was curious if you had some sense of where you are headed and how you are managing the company for that fiscal second half. It doesn’t sound like you are planning for orders to be say, up in the latter part of the year, is that a fair assessment in how you are trying to manage?
Tom Williams:
Yes. David, I think that’s fair. We would project that orders would continue to be weak because our orders, organic growth in orders are typically within a month or two of each other when you plot it historically. So for us on inventory, inventory is never good. It’s always it’s a waste when you are running a lean operation. So we are continuously whether we have volume going up or volume going down we are looking to optimize inventory period all the time and the kinds of efforts that we are doing in unity with our Parker lean process we will continue to look work at managing inventories down. Now obviously when orders go down, you need to update all your planning tools. You plan for every part, which is part of our lean system, so we are doing that. And then on pricing, I will let Lee comment on pricing with what we are doing with that.
Lee Banks:
Well, David, maybe I will put price and costs together. I would say costs inputs, it’s a mixed bag, there’s some going down, some going up. But from a price cost standpoint, as always, we just try to stay margin neutral and that’s what we are planning going forward.
David Raso:
Okay. And just to make sure just to wrap up here, the first quarter organic was in line with your expectations maybe 20 bps even better. I actually thought the orders weren’t even that bad in the first quarter relative to some of the fears out there. But then, obviously, you took a big chunk out of the rest of the year on organic sales and even your thoughts on orders. So the surprise I guess must have really been this last month that you really thought to see at least some beginning of bottoming process. So is that fair, it’s really been the last month that really drove the change in the guide.
Tom Williams:
David, it’s Tom again. So there’s two things, you are right, October, but then also the sequencing we saw within the quarter. The fact that August and September got worse from July. So we were starting to see a weakening through the quarter then another step down in October. That’s why we have changed the guide.
David Raso:
All right. That’s helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Yeah. Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on cash flow and it’s not more a question but a lot of companies that do deals have shifted to reporting sort of cash earnings, given a massive discrepancy between your cash flow generation and reported earnings. Have you guys considered moving to reporting cash numbers and what has the feedback been from your investors?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Andrew, it’s Tom. It’s good question. We have thought about it and we have reached out to shareholders and it’s been pretty uniform from shareholder feedback saying don’t make that change. I continue to obviously we will adjust for a onetime cost and the things that we would normally be doing but other than that, continue to report on a GAAP basis. And if you think about it, just it creates a more, a bigger hurdle that business needs to absorb to generate returns on behalf of the shareholders and I think that was the feedback I heard from shareholders is we want you to incorporate that bigger challenge into how you run the place. But it’s a good comment, I know there have been good companies that have made that change, at this point we have elected to stay with what we have been doing.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you. And then just a question, as your numbers have decelerated, what has the feedback been from LORD and Exotic, what have they experienced relative to expectations when you announced the deals?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. So, Andrew, it’s Tom again. So actually they have held up really nicely. LORD and the outlook that we have just given you is coming in at about a 4% organic growth and we had in our model, about 5.5%. That’s what I was verbally said during the announcement that was kind of our five-year CAGR. So if you think of everything that’s going on that’s changed from when we made that announcement to today, that’s pretty good. And again, that 4% positive compares to minus 6% for Parker. That’s why we like LORD so much. It’s why we bought them. It’s accretive from a growth standpoint. And then when you look at Exotic, Exotic’s coming in at a little over 11.5. we -- in our model that we built for the DCF, we had about a 7.5% CAGR, so that’s held up nicely. I would say two things, A, little better F-35 sales and we modeled a more conservative 737 Max. We have modeled Exotic going down to 42, but Boeing has not done that yet with Exotic and probably won’t because Exotic with its long lead time for materials. When you look at what Boeing’s done with their management supply chain, the rest of Parker Aerospace, for the most part, at 42, but as they have managed long lead time type of suppliers, Exotic being one of those, they have kept them at 52 because of obvious reasons. You can’t ramp back up with that kind of long lead time. So that’s part of why they have overproduced on the revenue. So in a nutshell, both acquisitions holding up on revenue, both acquisitions coming in at the EBITDA level that we expected to actually LORD slightly better on EBITDA, margins because we have pulled in the $15 million that Cathy referred to in her comments as the synergies for LORD, we are able to pull them a little bit earlier than we thought.
Andrew Obin:
And if I may squeeze just one in, auto exposure with LORD, you did comment that auto is bottoming, was that referring to sort of the old Parker exposure or was that referring to LORD’s exposure as well, and that will be it for me. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
That was total Parker. We haven’t -- that was based on Q1 so we didn’t have LORD in Q1. But their auto has held up better than our auto has, so pretty comparable.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Andy Casey:
Thanks a lot. I just wanted to go back to the decrementals that you talked about, Tom. Were those all in including the acquisitions over those Parker Legacy?
Tom Williams:
Parker legacy without the acquisitions and they are trying to do it with the acquisitions as apples and oranges, acquisitions are not in the prior period. We have got the $100 million of intangible amortization. So the MROS is when you look at it all-in versus prior basically nonsensical, you can’t really read anything into it, which is why I gave you the ones without it.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Okay. Appreciate that. And then, basically over the long-term, you had talked about 30% incrementals. The decrementals you gave were lower than that, which is good. When you embed the two new acquisitions that seem to be a little bit similar to CLARCOR, a little bit more resilient, would the downside over the long-term relative to the mid to high 20% decremental that you gave kind of even shrink further?
Tom Williams:
Well, I think, there is definitely that potential, because to your point they will be more resilient. Their higher margins as well. So they should help us with that. And we are going to work to make them even better than they are today. The whole goal of these is to take the best of what we do and the best and of course, we is not all of us and the best of what the acquisitions had and to make it even better. So I still think, again, for purposes of bottling, I don’t want to get too far over my skis, I would just encourage you to continue to use the plus or minus 30 as still best-in-class, and of course, our goal is we try to do better than that.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Andy. Joule , I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. Our final question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning. Hey. Just two from me, if you don’t mind, just first back on the acquisitions. At the time they were announced, I thought LORD’s run rate sales were about $1.1 billion and Exotic was about $450 million. And when I look at what you laid out here, it looks like they are both actually kind of on an annualized basis tracking flattish, is there something in timing or do I have this basis wrong?
Tom Williams:
Jeff, it’s Tom. I think the main thing would have -- when we gave it, it was based on calendar year over calendar year. Now these numbers are FY in Parker’s fiscal year, so the prior periods are not comparable.
Jeff Sprague:
Those growth rates you gave us though, Tom, were for the year in your plan or just in the quarter, those organic…
Tom Williams:
Yeah. The growth rates I gave, Jeff, are for our FY ‘20. So it would be comparing the period of time they are in part of Parker in our FY ‘20 and then using the same Parker fiscal year at FY ‘19 for them to go back and kind of reconstitute that, the two acquisitions.
Jeff Sprague:
Then just one other question on incrementals, if you don’t mind, and perhaps, it goes to the FX point you were making, Tom, but the decline in the 6% organic growth sales decline is about $650 million in sales, I think, Cathy said $800 million, if I think about it on a core basis, and $1.44 of EPS would gross-up to about $230 million. So that’s a 35% decremental on the core business, if I think about it relative to the walk that you gave us where you showed Legacy Parker versus deals, am I missing something there, or is it FX?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah. Jeff, it’s the FX differential, so the number I quoted was top-line total drop that we had in our guidance for the second, third and fourth quarters. And when you are quoting organic, you are probably correct that it’s closer to $600 million.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay. Great. Thank you for that color.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thank you. All right. This concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thanks everyone -- thank you to everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. Everyone have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all phone participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today’s conference maybe recorded. I'd now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Ms. Cathy Suever, Executive Vice President, Finance & Administration and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks Liz. Good morning. Welcome to Parker Hannifin's fourth quarter 2019 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2 and 3, you will find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 4. We'll begin with our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, providing comments and highlights from the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2019. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2019 performance together with guidance for fiscal year 2020. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 5, and Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Cathy. And good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation. Looking at slide 5, we had a strong fourth quarter and completed Parker's best year ever in our history. But before I jump into all the results, I wanted to just pause for a minute and reflect on the remarkable transformation of our company. Parker is a very different company now, delivering record performance and better able to perform through market cycles. We have a stronger portfolio of businesses following the three transformational acquisitions we've done in the last three years. If you look at performance and go back to last five years, adjusted operating margin percentage improved 280 basis points and adjusted EBITDA margins improved over 300 basis points. We are better performer over the cycle. We've always been good on cash flow over the cycle, but we're now we're much better on EPS and margins over the cycle. Particularly if you note, our margin performance during the '15 and '16 industrial recession and our margin performance just in last quarter Q4, a negative order growth, they all point to the improved performance that I was referring to. On the three acquisitions, they're going to lift the company up on two levels, portfolio and performance. On the portfolio side, we wanted to add to Filtration, Engineered Materials and Aerospace, these are parts that we've talked about on the air to because of the resilience over the cycle. On the performance side, we're adding three great businesses that are accretive to growth and the margins. Our goal here through the Win Strategy and our Capital Deployment strategy is to build a better business that generates higher growth, margins and cash flow through the business cycle, and you're seeing evidence of that already. Ultimately, this is this is going to result in Parker being a best in class company. So my thanks to all the Parker team members who are listening in, for all their hard work last year, but really over the last several years to get us to this point. If you turn to slide 6, part of what is transforming the company is our business model and the competitive differentiators that makes us special and we'll just talk through these bullets on this page briefly, The Win Strategy, it's our business system, it is the engine behind our results. Our decentralized divisional structure really drives an entrepreneurial spirit in the company. The motion and control technologies that we have really creates the breadth of our portfolio and this strategically positions us to have a big advantage versus our competition. And recognizing the fact that I've talked about before, 60% of our revenue comes from customers that buy from all of those technologies. That's a good evidence that our customers value that breadth of technologies. Our strong intellectual property, 85% of our portfolio, and typically what we ship has some element of intellectual property tied to it. We have long product life cycles, decades long as it go, balanced OEM and aftermarket, and we have arguably the best distribution channel in the motion control space. We have low CapEx requirements. Our lean transformation has really driven a low CapEx to drive our business and that enables us to have a very robust capital deployment process. And we're great generators and deployers of cash and you've seen us in action over the last five years in that regard. So if you turn to slide 7, some highlights from the fourth quarter. Safety continues to be our top priority. Our reportable incidents for the quarter were down 24%. Our high performance teams are helping to drive these results. Our goal is zero incidents. That's not an aspirational goal, it's really an expectation of how we're going to run the company. And the ownership culture that's created from the high performance team process and the start of a safety is going to be applied also to quality, cost and delivery, and that will naturally lift up the performance of the company. All-time quarterly records for the fourth quarter
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Tom, I'd like you to now refer to slide number 8. This slide presents as reported and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2019 compared to 2018. Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter increased 3% compared to the prior year, reaching $3.31. Adjustments from 2019 as reported results totaled $0.14 including business realignment expenses of $0.04 and LORD acquisition and integration expenses of $0.10. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $0.60 for business realignment expenses, CLARCOR costs to achieve, and net loss on sale and write-down of assets and a US tax reform adjustment. For the full year adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2019 was $11.85, an increase of 14% compared to fiscal 2018. Adjustments from the 2019 as reported results totaled $0.37. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $2.59. The details of all of these adjustments are included in the reconciliation tables for non-GAAP financial measures. Moving to slide number 9, you'll find the significant components of the $0.09 walk from prior-year fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share to $3.31 for the fourth quarter of this year. We gained $0.04 from lower corporate G&A, interest expense and other expense. Lower income tax expense accounted for $0.06 and lower average share count contributed $0.11. Offsetting these gains, segment operating income decreased by $0.12 as a result of lower volume, with sales down 3.6% versus the prior year quarter, and also as a result of higher development costs incurred in our Aerospace segment. Moving to slide 10, you'll find the significant components of the $1.43 walk from adjusted earnings per share of $10.42 for fiscal 2018 to $11.85 for this year. The largest improvement came from segment operating income. This accounted for an increase of $0.79, with total segment margins improving by 100 basis points year-over-year. $0.14 came from lower interest expense. Lower income tax expense accounted for $0.19 and reduced average shares contributed $0.31. Slide 11 shows total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter and full year 2019. For the fourth quarter, organic sales decreased year-over-year by 1.9% and currency had a negative impact of 1.7%. Despite a decline in sales, the fourth quarter total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.6% versus 17.5% last year. This improvement reflects productivity improvements and the benefits of synergies from acquisitions, combined with the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives. For the full year, organic sales increased by 2.6% and total segment operating margins increased 100 basis points to 17.2%. Moving to slide 12, I'll discuss the business segments starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North America organic sales were down 3.2%. Even with lower sales, operating margin improved nicely for the fourth quarter to 18.4% on an adjusted basis. North America continued to deliver improved margins, which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as synergies from acquisitions and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. For the full year, North America organic sales increased 1.8% and adjusted margins increased 30 basis points to 16.9%. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide 13. Organic sales for the fourth quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 4.1%. Currency also negatively impacted the quarter by 4.5%. Despite the lower sales, operating margin for the fourth quarter of 2019, on an adjusted basis, improved 30 basis points to 16.4% of sales. This margin performance reflects our team's improved operating cost efficiencies from realignment initiatives and the benefits of the Win Strategy. For the full year, organic sales for Industrial International increased 1.1% and adjusted operating margins increased by 110 basis points to finish the year at 16.4%. I'll now move to slide 14 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic sales increased 6.5% during the fourth quarter primarily due to commercial and military OE growth, along with growth in commercial aftermarket. Operating margin for the fourth quarter decreased by 200 basis points due to higher development costs in the quarter and a lower mix of military aftermarket sales as compared to the prior year. For the full year, our Aerospace Systems segment delivered great organic sales growth of 8.5% and an impressive 210 basis point improvement in adjusted segment margin, finishing the year at 19.4%. On slide 15, you'll find the differences in fiscal year 2019 earnings per share between our full year guidance going into the quarter compared to the actual results from the out performance in the fourth quarter. Final full year earnings per share on an adjusted basis was $0.25 higher than previously guided. At the operations level, segment operating income finished $0.01 higher than expected driven by productivity improvements despite the lower-than-expected sales. Lower corporate G&A, interest and other expense resulted in an additional $0.06. We benefited $0.16 from lower income tax expense due to discrete tax adjustments and additional benefits resulting from new regulations related to US tax reform recognized in the quarter. And lastly, we benefited $0.02 from lower average shares. On slide 16, we report cash flow from operating activities. We had strong cash flow this whole year. Full year 2019 cash flow from operating activities was a record $1.73 billion. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the first quarter, cash flow from operations was 13.5% of sales. This compares to 11.2% of sales for the same period last year. On slide 17, we show a history of Parker's free cash flow conversion rate. For the 18th consecutive year, Parker generated free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%, finishing fiscal year 2019 at 115%. Parker is great at cash generation even during growth periods. We're very proud of our team for their good management of working capital. Moving to slide 18, we show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 3% as of the quarter ending June. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 4% within Diversified Industrial North America, minus 8% within Diversified Industrial International and a positive 10% within Aerospace Systems orders. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2020 is outlined on slide 19. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year are now expected to decrease to 1.5% compared to the prior year, within a range of minus 3% to 0%. Anticipated organic growth for the full year is forecasted in approximately the same range at a midpoint of minus 1.5%. There is no prior-year acquisition or divestiture impact and the currency impact is expected to be minimal. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended June 30, 2019. We've held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for fiscal year 2020. You can see the forecasted as reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. At the midpoint, total Parker adjusted margins are forecasted to increase approximately 20 basis points from prior year. For guidance, we are estimating an adjusted range of 17.2% to 17.6% for the full fiscal year. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $11.38 to $12.18 or $11.78 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $11.50 to $12.30, or $11.90 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $20 million or $0.12 per share for the full year fiscal 2020, but the associated savings are projected to be $10 million. Some additional key assumptions for full-year 2020 guidance at the midpoint are
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Cath. So, just a couple of quick comments. We're very pleased with our continued progress, projecting record year of earnings in FY '20, and we're well on our way to delivering of being a top quartile company and being that best-in-class company that we are aspiring to be. My thanks to the global team for all their hard work, their dedication, the results from FY '19 and we're looking forward to a bright future together. And with that, Liz, we're happy to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. Nice quarter. I guess just first question, Tom, if you could just provide some context around how you're thinking about the organic growth drive for 2020, what's implied for sort of first half versus second half? And then you know, what you’re seeing in terms of, you mentioned channel inventory before, how long that continues to weigh on results versus clear the channel? So I guess start there and then - yeah, I guess, why don't we start there? That's fine.
Tom Williams:
Okay, Jamie. It's Tom, Happy to do that because that's obviously probably top of mind for everybody. So let me take you through our assumptions and obviously this process that we do is we're one of the first companies to start talking about calendar '20. We take a lot of input from customers, distributors or divisions of course in our own economic models. So, the organic growth that we talked about at the midpoint at minus 1.5%, that turns into our first half at minus 4%, which really mirrors our current order entry, on the second half, a plus 1%. So on the second half, we have a slightly better volume, little bit easier comps. If you look at that minus 1.5% organically on a regional basis, it's North America at minus 1.5%, international at minus 4.5% and Aerospace at a plus 4.5%, I am kind of rounding to halves here as I go through it. While it's not a predictor of our future, there's another important data point that we have looked at and that's our pressure curve history. If you look at the last 10 years, anytime to 3, 12 [ph] curve has gone less than 1, it tends to go down less than 1 for a 12 months to 18 months duration depending on where that particular business cycle is. Our current pressure curves have been less than 1 for about 7 months. So, this guidance assumes that the 3, 12 curve crosses 1 approximately 15 months from when it started, so not too different from what we have seen in other cycles. Of course, and that's our best estimate at this time. Let me take you through the markets that we see for FY '20, and I'll give you a little color as to what we think is driving the second half. I'm going to make just a quick clarifying comment like I usually do, and on our list markets and positive neutral negative, this is our forecast for the market. Don't take my comments as I'm speaking about the entire market, this is just how Parker is going to perform in the market. So on a positive side is Aerospace, forestry and life sciences. Neutral, which is a pretty big section, agriculture, construction, distribution, modern tariff, material handling, oil and gas, power gen, refrigeration, semi con, telecom and ground military and defense. On the negative side is automotive, engines, heavy duty truck, machine tools, marine, mills and foundries, mining, rail and tires and rubber. So what's driving the markets in our view in the second half besides some help on compare -- easier comparables will be the one part, which is what you were alluding to earlier, Jamie, on distribution. The destocking that we are seeing early in Q3 and Q4 will continue for the first half, but at a diminishing rate, and then will be pretty much of an equilibrium in our view on the distribution channel come into this calendar year and that turns to a slight positive for the second half. Life Sciences will be positive for us in the second half as well as power gen turning from negative to positive in the second half. So that's one category, things that we see moving to positive in the second half. There is another big category of markets that are currently negative that we see is going to neutral in the second half, so they don't necessarily provide us tailwind, but they become less of a headwind, obviously. So the negative to neutral ones, first half to second half I'm just going to list these out, are construction, oil and gas, semi con, automotive, machine tools, mining, rail, mills and foundries, again, and tires. So I'm pretty optimistic. When you look at the 312 curves, they are less than 1, but they are flattening. So that's a positive indicator. When you look at our four phases of the business cycle, we have about two-thirds of our markets that are in Phase 3, Phase 3 being the accelerating decline phase of a four-phase business cycle. And what that signals to us is that we're moving our way through the soft patch because the next phase after accelerating decline is decelerating decline, which means you're starting to move out of that, and then the next phase after that is growth. So in our view, there is lots of self-help here. The markets are going to turn, and it wills tart to help us, albeit a little bit later in FY '20, but will start to provide some small tailwind. The Win Strategy is producing margin expansion for us in a negative organic sales environment. We've got the two transformational acquisitions in LORD and Exotic that bring in higher growth in margins. And just about the time that we close these deals and really get the integration really up and running is also going to be about the time these markets start to come back and start to give us some slight tailwind. So I think that all is going to align very nicely. So I feel good about '20 and I think it all comes back to the message I started the call with that we're positioned well for the cycle, and we're going to continue to try to be the best-in-class company. So I don't give a follow-up, Jamie, or not?
Jamie Cook:
No, I mean, I think I guess, just if I can have a follow-up. The implied margin resilience that we're going to see in the North American markets in 2020 even with the sales decline, just any color in particular on that and then I'll get back in queue.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. So we have North America going up about 20 basis points versus '19. It's really going to be a continued win strategy efforts, the productivity that we've got, the kaizen activity that we have is all creating the capacity for us to be more resilient on the margin side. And North America's volume being down, not as bad as International, they are able to hold up the margins and in fact expand margins because of that.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thanks. I'll hop back in queue.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is now open.
Mig Dobre:
Good morning, everyone. So Tom, I want to go back to your comments early on, when you talked about the transformation of the business, this is something that we spent some time speaking to investors about. And one of the questions that I think we often get that maybe you can help us with is when you're looking at your business mix and you look at what traditionally have been perceived as your key customers and key drivers, heavy machinery OEM build, how is your business looking today, especially when you count in LORD and you are counting in CLARCOR as well as Exotic versus, say, the way it looked in fiscal '15 in the last cycle or even the cycle prior to that? Because there is a business mix aspect here that I think is perhaps under appreciated even by me.
Tom Williams:
Yeah, I think you're right. I mean that was, as you know, Mig and everybody else that's been listening on the call, almost all of my investor presentations, when I talked about capital deployment, I start talking about we're going to be the consolidator choice in this space because we like the space and we are number one. So we want to continue to add that. But all things being equal, we'd like to invest a little heavier in filtration, aerospace, engineered materials and instrumentation, you've seen us do three out of the four so far. And we are on purpose trying to balance out that density that you referred to that we traditionally had maybe in the Fluid Power side of the company on our fluid connectors and our motion technologies and add filtration, which is now one of our largest groups. And with Lord, Engineered Materials would be one of our larger groups, and add to Aerospace which balances out the short cycle nature of the company with a high margin business, that's got a great growth trajectory. So clearly that portfolio, since we've added $3 billion of revenue in roughly three years, that goes into those targeted parts of the portfolio that will make us clearly more resilient. You can't ever be - not have any reaction to the business cycle, everybody feels it. But can you dent the lows versus what you had in the past. And I think you see evidence of that. We held margins almost virtually flat during the industrial recession of '15 and '16 on the margin performance in Q4. Those are pretty phenomenal results and that was even before, of course, Q4 had CLARCOR in it, but it's before adding LORD and Exotic. So the mix is going to continue to help us and the Win Strategy is going to continue to help us too, because we're not stopping at 17% operating margin.
Mig Dobre:
I see, okay. And then if I may ask a question on Industrial International, obviously your full year guidance implies organic growth decline. I'm presuming you're sort of thinking that orders kind of keep in line with your organic guidance. Two years in a row now of contraction in International, so from your perspective, what sort of environment are you really baking into your outlook? And I am to some degree surprised that you're not announcing some kind of restructuring of sorts, addressing basically the second year of volume decline here. Maybe you can comment on that and how your cost structure has changed in international with everything that you've done? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Yeah, so on the restructuring side, we have been restructuring International since FY '14 and we've been on a very aggressive restructuring getting International margins almost to the levels of North America, if you look at last year, 16.4% versus 16.9%, and a lot of either falls for a long time. Never thought we could ever do that. So International has been moving because of the restructuring that we've been doing, and we've been creating a much more agile organization and the mix of improving distribution versus OEM. So that's been helping International. So we don't feel the same need at least at these levels of sales decline to trigger some new level of restructuring. We've got the organization to where it needs to be, obviously we will do the normal variable cost reductions in temps and over time and voluntary lack of works, those type of things. But we think we've really done a great job internationally and that's why you see the margins what we've had. I'm not sure I hit everything you wanted to cover, Mig, then.
Mig Dobre:
No, you kind of did. I guess I'm wondering, in some ways, it's a little bit unusual to see two years in a row of, say, orders or volume decline here. That's actually worse than what happened in 2015, right? So I'm trying to understand kind of that dynamic and also trying to understand if your cost structure here has become more variable than it's been in the past. That's kind of where I was going.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. So Mig, that was the part of your question I missed. Yeah, International did grow at least minus 1% last year, but it was the first to start to go down, and so it felt a little bit sooner. So International declined organically last year, of course it had a lot of the currency, minus 5.5 [ph] on currency. But we do -- I think we've been realistic with International. We've got International down about 8.5% the first half and then starting to work its way by the time we exit Q4 to almost a neutral type of positioning in Q4. So it was first to go in, and I think it will be fine. And I think the guide is pretty realistic in what we have for International.
Mig Dobre:
All right. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Mig.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks, good morning.
Catherine Suever:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
So I guess my first question and just it's going back to the inventory comments from earlier. I guess as you think about the next couple of quarters, it sounds like you're expecting destock to continue. I guess in that context, have you heard or have you experienced any distributor like price adjustments or how are those conversations with your distributors occurring on the pricing side just given the backdrop?
Tom Williams:
So let me - I'll start with the inventory, and let Lee chime in on the pricing side of things. So with at least North America, we do have good visibility into that sales out and sales-in that I referred to in the last call. And so we look at North America, we see about a flat growth organically with about 200 basis points of destocking. So North America came in at about a minus 2% on distribution growth. That was about minus 300 bps of destocking in Q3. So we saw a little bit of improvement, about 100 basis points of improvement. And that's really was our thinking as we go into the first half of '20, so we have about another 100 bps every quarter, hence six months to get through the destocking. And that's obviously through conversations that we have with our distributors and then we were plotting, like I referred to last quarter, for plotting that sales-out, sales-in, so we can get a little better visibility of the trend. I'll let Lee comment on the pricing side.
Lee Banks:
Just commenting on distribution. Speaking about North America, I would - as Tom said, it was mixed during the quarter, really depends on the region and destocking continue. I'd say on the pricing side, if you're asking if there still pricing power in the channel, I'm not quite sure exactly what you were asking. We're still in a slightly inflationary environment. I would say that there is still pricing taking place, and which is still promising through, there's still a lot of CapEx activity still taking place at this point in time, which is a good indicator that, and I'm speaking mostly of North America that there's still a lot of positive momentum going on.
Joe Ritchie:
Yes, Lee, my comment was more around like whether your distributors were pushing back on price at all in this backdrop. And really kind of trying to understand whether that has any implications on the leverage in your North American business.
Tom Williams:
No, there is really none of that taking place right now.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Got it. And then maybe just my follow-on, and just thinking about the trajectory of the aero business, the aero obviously continues to do well from an order perspective. If you take a look at the growth expectations for 2020, and they seem a little light based on the trends that we've been seeing. And so maybe some commentary around that as we head into 2020?
Tom Williams:
Okay. Joe, it's Tom. So on orders, remember, orders are long cycle or 12 months and they tend to be lumpy and you don't always translate the due dates directly out into the next fiscal year, but we were plus 10% like you've seen. That composition was minus 5% on commercial OE, plus 42% on military OE, plus 13% on commercial MRO, and plus 24% on military MRO. So some of the things that really drove some of the big spikes for F-35 on the military OE. On the commercial side, it was 737 and 787, and really kind of a mixture of A 220 [ph] a pretty nice broad base mixture on the MRO side. And the military MRO, a lot of fighters F-18, F-119, F-101 is a bomber, but some pretty good progress on orders there. For sales, our forecast is about 4.5%, that composition is commercial OE at plus 3%, military OE at plus 2%, commercial MRO at plus 4%, and military MRO at plus 10%, and that's our best view at this moment.
Joe Ritchie:
Appreciate the color.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning. Yes, my question focuses on the sensitivity of your margin guidance to volumes. What's striking me is in the first half of the year, you have total company sales down 4% to 5%, but implied margins up 10 bps. The second half of the year, your revenue is up and the margins are up 30 bps, not terribly differently. It doesn't seem like there's much volume sensitivity to the margin improvement. Now I do appreciate the year ago comp, mix, you know, currency can mess with the analysis a bit, but I'm just trying to understand is that accurate that where you see your margin improvement coming from really isn't that volume sensitive?
Tom Williams:
Well, if I take a tour of Parker, I'm just doing total MROS, so we're in that minus 15% to minus 20% range for the first half. And if I look at the second half, it's like plus over 70% now. Again, it's the loss on numbers, you got relatively modest sales increase. So you are seeing some pretty nice lift in that second half as far as MROS go.
David Raso:
Well, I am just seeing the opposite, Tom, saying you would think the second half of the year has got to really carry the load on the margin improvement, because your distributors aren't destocking the same way. You have volume overhead absorption that's improving because you have revenues up, not down. But at some sense what striking me is interesting that you're almost saying I can grow margins nothing regardless of volumes, but it's -- I won't use the word impressive, but yeah, if you can do it, it is impressive that you can have down volumes up, margins and up volumes up margins. I mean, just interesting to see this, obviously if you really can do it without a much volume sensitivity, it makes the credibility of the guide improve. So I'm just trying to understand, am I reading it right. I know I'm doing the math right, but I'm just trying to figure out other clear things in the margin improvement this year that you would say, yeah, it's really not tied to volume at all, have confidence that we can grow margin even when bottoms are down because that's what you're implying in the first half.
Tom Williams:
You're absolutely reading it right and that's part of the transformation that I spoke to at the beginning of the call. The combination of all the things we've been doing on lean, the kaizen activity really started heavy for us in the fall of last year, the Win Strategy simplification, all those type of things, the inefficiencies that we've worked through, the CLARCOR synergies that are really kicking in. All those things and of course, the portfolio shift as far as things we're adding to the portfolio, are enabling us to be better our margins when we have softness on sales. So yes, we feel good about that.
David Raso:
Yeah. I wasn't sure. Maybe the part of the reason is the price cost is, you know, particularly helpful over the next couple of quarters, because you still have some lag benefit from prior price increases, but now you get the benefit from a lower cost and that kind of goes more neutral in the second half. It doesn't seem like in the channel, you put much of a price increase if any through July 1. So I'm not sure how much benefit maybe in your fiscal second half you'll have on price, but the carry over from the prior price increase, it should still be there the next six months, and then maybe a benefit from lower costs. So, I am not blessing it here, but just it's impressive, if you can do that where you're not that volume sensitive. I'm just trying to get a handle on -- it seems that you believe it just with our couple of buckets to make us feel good about, that's not volume sensitive. We know what the price cost is and we know we have some inefficiencies that we're still lingering at CLARCOR that aren't there in the fiscal first half of '20. That's all I was driving at.
Tom Williams:
Yeah, I think you're right, you hit on all the buckets. The inefficiencies that we have at CLARCOR were clearly more pronounced in the first half of '19. And so that helps us as we look at '20. Some of the carry over on pricing is a little bit better in the first half. In general, if I was to do the total pricing for the year, it would be margin neutral, but we do get a little bit of help more in the first half. So I think you're right.
David Raso:
All right. I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole DeBlase:
Yeah. Thanks, good morning.
Catherine Suever:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase:
So, I just wanted to start with the first quarter. So the color between the first half and the second half was really helpful. But if you guys could give us a sense of what's baked in from an organic and a margin perspective in that $2.66 midpoint guidance for 1Q that would be helpful?
Catherine Suever:
Sure, Nicole. I'll help you here. We're anticipating organic decline of about 3.5% for the first quarter with just a minimal impact from currency, say 0.5 point of 0.5% currency. But as you look at the margins, we're expecting year-over-year for North America to see improving margins year-over-year. Again that relates to some of the inefficiencies we saw at the first half of last year that are improving. International, with the decline, will have lower margins than last year, a nice decremental though there, and Aerospace will see improving margins.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then secondly on Aerospace margins, it looks to me like you've embedded about 50% incrementals in 2020 guidance. Just curious how much R&D maybe contributes to that, the factors driving the pretty substantial year-on-year increase in margins to about 20%.
Catherine Suever:
Yeah. A lot of that or a good portion of that has to do with the development costs and what we incurred in fiscal '19 compared to what we anticipate in fiscal '20 and especially what we incurred in the fourth quarter. So in the fourth quarter of this year, our development costs were 7.5% of sales. That was pretty high. Our overall average for the year was 5.6%. In fiscal year '20, we expect development costs to be less than that and we're forecasting in the range of 4.5% to 5%. So lower development costs are driving some of that incremental, along with other continuous improvements the teams are making to implement productivity and Win Strategy initiatives and just improving the processes in the shops and getting more productive.
Nicole DeBlase:
Okay, got it. Thanks, I'll pass it on.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Nicole.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Catherine Suever:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Can we just touch, Just going back to the strategy question, can we talk about internal capital deployment? And it's really a two-part question. A, how do you think deploying capital in terms of sort of capital and labor, and specifically on capital, if you could talk about stuff sort of implementing robotics, 3D manufacturing, how much money are you spending, how much impact is it making? And the second question is, given all the trade tensions, how are you guys thinking about deploying capital by geography, North America, the rest of the world, and what are you seeing in your supply chain? I know, it's sort of an expansive question, so that would be the only one from me.
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom. So let me start with the CapEx side. So I think a good round number for to think about is in CapEx and this would be before for the fund organic growth as well as productivity is around 2%. And we are very active on robotics and additive. I would just tell you that our strategy on automation robotics is to do kaizen first. We believe it was not automate waste, we're going to do kaizen, we're going to streamline the processes and optimize what we have and then we'll automate the remaining processes. And so there is a little bit of a learning curve on learning all the automation, we've got a lot of great partners that we're working with, and we've had a number of summit sessions with all of our manufacturing engineers, and I would say the organization is really jazzed up about it. And I think this is a good strategy, we're putting kaizen first, then automation. And as part of why I think you've seen the margin do as well as ahead is the kaizen activities are just starting to gain traction. So more robotics coming forward, but we will invest in that, that will be in that 2%. And because of our lean transformation, we don't need as much dollars. We can divert some of that what we've traditionally done into more CapEx towards robotics. On the additive side, that's a big deal to us. We've got three centers of excellence, so we've decided strategically that we're not going to have -- this is not the kind of process you're going to have 80 of them, like one for every division. So we have two centers of excellence for Aerospace and we've got one for the entire company, and that one for the entire company really acts as an incubator for all the Industrial divisions as well as also for Aerospace, and we're working on proprietary material powder blending and processes. So there's a lot of good work that we're very close to having our first production parts both industrially and Aerospace to make it into the field utilizing additive. I'd tell you, the other thing on additive is designing for additives. So we have a program working on designing it for additive world, because it's very important to design the next generation of products thinking about an additive manufacturing process versus designing it in the subtraction world. You were asking about supply chain, we've always been, view on supply chain, and so we like to make, buy and sell in the region for the region. So maybe you're asking about China, do we feel still good about China? And we really do, I mean we've not over positioned ourselves in China where we think we're over extended. We still have low-cost centers there that we're very happy with. China is still a huge country for us and we need to be there to service that. And so I don't think you can see us doing much big CapEx shifts like building a bunch of plants in Indonesia. We have the footprint we need and maybe just some minor tweaking up lines, but it will be immaterial.
Andrew Obin:
And I'll just sneak in one more follow-up on collaborative robotics. I know that you had a big rollout program, I believe you did. Where are you in that terms sort of kaizen versus actual physical rolling out of capacity?
Tom Williams:
Heavy on the kaizen activity, early days still in the collaborative robots. We have several, lots of them in all of our factories, but we particularly strategically emphasized kaizen's first. You talk to most senseis that are experts in this kind of transformation, they will encourage to do the same thing. And it's a lot faster dollars to the bottom line and a lot more CapEx friendly. And collaborative robotics is really CapEx -friendly as well. It's going to be a light touch on CapEx. I don't see that as an issue, but the thrust has been, let's do the kaizen, let's get the processes right first.
Andrew Obin:
Really appreciate it. Thank you very much.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann Duignan:
Yeah, hi. Most of my specific questions have been answered, but Tom, maybe I'll throw this one at you. If you look at where your end markets are today versus where we were when we went into the industrial recession in '15 and '16, it strikes me that as we look at the number of end markets that are down or negative right now, it's much more broad based. Do you worry at all that heading into calendar year 2020, we're facing much broader decline when you include automotive, heavy-duty truck, you take the impact of Boeing 737 MAX, if that production schedule declines? It looks to me like we've got a pretty broad-based set of end market declining.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Ann, it's Tom, I'll make a comment, let me touch on the MAX real quickly for a second. So the MAX for us, in our guidance we put in 42 months and because it's first fit and most of our content there is very low margin, it's immaterial to us pretty much of that schedule is to change, but I just want you to know we put it in a 42. So I think we're in good shape on that. But I think your characterization is pretty accurate. This is a more broad based, but not as deep type of softness. The '15 and '16 industrial recession was a sharp contraction in natural resources. So you had all the natural resource related end markets, as we all remember, went down significantly and so that was more isolated. This is a little more broader based, and my comment earlier on that we have two-thirds of our markets and accelerating decline is an indicator that we have some pockets that are unusually down, things like semiconductor, power gen. But we're hopeful on power gen, that's starting to find a bottom, and that we are also hopeful actually on semiconductors, it's starting to find a bottom as well.
Ann Duignan:
And yes, I just wanted to follow up on the Boeing 737. Isn't there a risk that again that becomes more broad based? It's not just about what you supply onto the airplane, but there are a lot of kind of second derivative impacts that could impact your business.
Tom Williams:
I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to, because it would just be reflecting our bill of materials there. You are talking about the general supply chain that supports Boeing?
Ann Duignan:
Yeah. I am just thinking about the impact of pulling down the schedule at one large manufacturing facility and how that might impact some of your industrial Distribution businesses.
Tom Williams:
Okay. I see what you are saying. I think that would be very minor. Basically, you won't be able to find it. So they shut down the plant at Redmond for 20 days or whatever on a temporary basis. It would be immaterial to us as far as the implant, things that we do on the industrial side.
Ann Duignan:
Okay, I'll leave it there. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, Ann.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Nigel Coe:
Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Catherine Suever:
Hi, Nigel.
Nigel Coe:
Yes. So I just want to touch on international orders. We saw the year-over-year deteriorating from last quarter on an easier comp. So I'm just curious if you maybe just talk about geographically where you saw the incremental weakness? And then I've got a follow-up.
Tom Williams:
Yeah Nigel, it's Tom. So on international, that composition of that minus 8%, we had both EMEA and Asia Pacific at about the same, at high-single digit declines, and we had Latin America low-single positive -- remember Latin America's small, so it's not really enough to move the needle. And the way that trended in the quarter is that Asia Pacific weakened in May, but stayed stable in June. So May -- stepped down from April to May, but May and June were pretty well flat. And then Europe was pretty consistent. It was in that high-single digit level the entire quarter. So, no real variation going in April to June, and in Latin America we saw some variation, but in general, slight growth.
Nigel Coe:
And then in Europe, have you seen any signs of a bottom there or is it still very consistent [indiscernible]?
Tom Williams:
I think my description of the markets earlier on that I went through is a pretty good indicator for Europe as well. So that's how we would characterize here. The only difference in Europe will be maybe a little weaker distribution channel than we have in North America, but that will be the key difference.
Nigel Coe:
And then my follow-up is really maybe just touching on what Ann was digging into. Going back to '15 and '16, we saw North America negative 12%. And certainly, the order numbers don't support that kind of deterioration. But maybe just take a step back and characterize what you're seeing today, what you're hearing from the field from your channel partners and characterize what you're hearing today to what you saw in '15 and '16?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, Nigel, this feels very different, I mean, distinctly different. '15 and '16 was a commodity-driven reduction. If you remember, the commodity prices weakened dramatically. The only equipment that went in there, the demand dried up. We had oil and gas prices dropped dramatically. So it was a very different type of downturn. This one is, like I mentioned earlier on, is broader based. I think our forecast was realistic. Part of why we studied those pressure curves was just look at what history has shown us going back, -- data back 10 years and the financial crisis today, and that 12 months to 18 months interval was fairly consistent over those cycles. But the big difference for me is sharp spike down and natural resources before, this one a lot more broader based across a broader base of end markets, but not as severe.
Nigel Coe:
Okay. Thanks.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks Nigel. Liz, I think we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Our last question will come from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine Suever:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Thanks for fitting me in. First question, I just want to follow up on this conversation about the shallowness of this pullback and perhaps its duration. Tom, it sounds like a lot of your outlook for when we recover from this is based on historical correlations and historical outlooks for the businesses. You did say this is a difference of '15 and '16. Do you need some kind of trade resolution here in order to see that recovery? Do you need to avoid a hard Brexit, are there geopolitical things here that maybe they don't make this decline any deeper than it is that you're projecting but maybe it makes it longer than you're projecting and just how you're thinking about those kinds of things?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, Nathan, it's Tom. So I want to clarify, in case anybody took my comments the wrong way. We're not using a pressure curve history as to how we predict future sales. It's just one data point on top of our customers, our distributors, our divisions, et cetera, okay? So it's just one of many additions to the regression models we have, but it's just another element that I wanted to share. You know, I think that as far as this forecast, it does not assume any kind of trade resolution. So if we had some kind of trade resolutions, and there was a really positive, that would be upside to us. Obviously, this doesn't -- and resolution of Brexit or however that happens, that will be immaterial to us, it's not big enough to move the needle. And we're always subject to, if there was something geopolitical event out of our control, but I can't forecast those type of things. Let's not assume any kind of upside on trade. It's really mirroring the current order entry that we have for the full first half and then we get some help on comps. And as we went through the markets, this is all those markets that we think are going to go from negative to neutral or from neutral to positive, and then we track all these end markets and where they are in those four phases. And when you have two-thirds of them in Phase 3, that's an indicator that you're going to start to turn, your next phase is going to be [indiscernible] in decline, and that's what we put in the forecast. So there was a whole bunch of different angles we looked at it. As you know, forecast is only as good as the most current data and we'll update you every quarter and hopefully give you even better information.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. My follow-up questions, a little more longer-term on Aerospace in the margins. You guys said 5.6% in engineering expenses in 2019, 4.5% to 5% in 2020. Does that continue to decline going forward? And then maybe you can comment on the mix as we go out a few years. I think you're fairly heavily on commercial OE at the moment, and that should switch as we go forward to a little more commercial aftermarket and clearly those are at opposite ends of the margin scale. So just any qualitative commentary you could give on how you think margins should progress in Aerospace over the next few years.
Tom Williams:
Yeah. Nathan, it's Tom again. So we feel very good about margins in Aerospace in the future. The current mix of OE to aftermarket for Aerospace is 64% OE, 36% aftermarket. And you're right, that won't necessarily change much, say, over the next three years to five years. But once you start going beyond that and we start having shop visits and you are looking at the engine content and the airframe content, that is going to gradually start to move, a point or two movement on that is a big deal to us from a margin standpoint. The NRE, that 4.5% to 5% of our guiding for FY20, I think it's a pretty good future number to use as well. And so the other advantage that Aerospace has, besides the mix you referred to is that it still has ample opportunity just like the rest of the company on the Win Strategy. It's got opportunities on kaizen. It has additional opportunities and that all the entry into service part that they are doing today, which your first pump versus your 100th pump versus your 500th pump, we're going to work down that learning curve and we will have some cost advantages, not in this next 12 months, but as you work through that, we're going to have cost advantages on entering to service learning. So it's a business we're very bullish on from a margin expansion.
Nathan Jones:
Very helpful. Thanks for fitting me in.
Catherine Suever:
Okay, thank you, Nathan. All right, this concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you everyone for joining us today. Robin and Jeff will be available to take your calls should you have any further questions. Everybody have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin’s Fiscal 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to introduce your host for today’s program Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer, Please go ahead.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's third quarter fiscal 2019 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide two and three, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement, addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number four. To begin our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide comments and highlights from the third quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's third quarter performance together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2019. Tom, will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number five and Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning everybody and thanks for your interest in Parker. We had a very strong performance in the quarter, but before I’d jump into the quarter, I’d like to take you back for a few seconds here to 2015. We had launched the new Win Strategy in our first generation of five years goals. If you remember, one of our key goals that we had at that time was to get to 70% [ph] operating margin by FY ‘20. And I kind of remember that meeting, we also got feedback that perhaps it might be too aggressive, but we are excited to tell you that we have achieved that goal basically about 18 months early, and that included doing the CLARCOR acquisition during that period of time, so really a remarkable accomplishment and my thanks to everybody around the world, the Parker team for that huge accomplishment ahead of schedule. So you might be asking how? How did we do that, and I’m going to come directly from the slide, that's up there slide five describing our business model and the competitive differentiators that we have. And if you look at that, it is really a powerful lineup, and that list represents what makes us different. It strategically positions us versus our competitors and helps to answer the question why would you invest in Parker, why would you buy from Parker, and why would you work at Parker. So, I like to show this every quarter but I am only going to pick one bullet to go over to give you some extra color. And let's talk about the operating CapEx requirements of the company. If you go back before the Win Strategy started, we were basically a 6% CapEx to sales company, and today we are bouncing that 1.5% to 2%. How we did that is we implemented the Parker Lean system, value stream transformations, waste reduction efforts, and by doing that we have freed up floorspace, machine, and people capacity, and that enabled us to free up basically 400 basis points of free cash flow, which you can imagine what we can do with 400 basis points of free cash flow, deploy it as effective as we can back to our shareholders. That's been a big part of our success over the last decade or so. So let's go ahead and jump into takeaways from the quarter. Safety continues to be our top priority. We had 20% reduction in recordable incidents. We continue on about that 20% clip, and it's really making great progress. My thanks to our team members around the world for their ownership on safety, and remember the connection between safety performance, engagement, and financial performances are a clear linkage between all those. We had strong operational quarter reflecting the benefits of the Win Strategy, and we put up a number of quarterly records, segment operating margins, net income, and EPS, and our confidence remains very strong for achieving record performance in FY ‘19. Again, a big thank you to all the Parker team members out there for the great progress and all the hard work. So some highlights on the quarter. Organic growth came in approximately 2%, offset by currency and divestiture. Order rates did moderate bumping up against some tough comparables, growth moderating and North America distributors destocking; and of course, we will discuss that more in the Q&A portion of the call. EPS and net income were all-time records. Segment operating margins was an all-time record at 17.1%, and adjusted total segment operating margins were 17.2%, up 90 basis points versus prior year, and we saw improvement across all of our reporting segments. Aerospace posted an all-time record of 20.7% segment operating margin for the quarter, and a big thank you to the aerospace team for their great work. We've seen really nice returns from past investments in aerospace, which is a long cycle business that's performing at a very high level and it utilizes all of our motion control technologies into that space. Our as-reported EBITDA margin was up 150 basis points to 18.6% or 18.7% adjusted and we had very strong cash flow, operating cash flow of 12.1% excluding discretionary pension contribution. Free cash flow conversion was 104%, so in summary an excellent quarter with a number of records. Switching to capital deployment. Last week, we announced a 16% increase in our dividend and we've now made dividend increases for 63 consecutive fiscal years. It's a record we're very proud of and a record we intend to keep as we go into the future. We also continued our 10b5-1 repurchase program of $50 million in Parker shares and we made an opportunistic discretionary purchase of $150 million in shares which we initiated immediately after our second quarter blackout period finished and before the Lord acquisition process started. And of course on Monday, we announced the agreement to acquire Lord Corporation for $3.675 billion and Lord was approximately $1.1 billion business, 23% EBITDA, and a leader in material sciences and vibration control technologies. And if I could just as a reminder, because some people didn't listen in on the call on Monday, what the strategic rationale was behind that acquisition. This is a strategic portfolio transaction which significantly expands our engineered materials business. It has complementary products, markets and geographies that are aligned to key growth trends, and it's very culturally aligned with Parker's values and has a rich history of innovation and product reliability. Strong global brands with long-standing blue-chip customer list that is very similar to our customer list, strengthens material science capabilities, electrification, light weighting, and aerospace offerings, and it's expected to be accretive to organic sales growth, EBITDA margin and cash flow and EPS, excluding one-time costs and deal-related amortization. So moving out to the outlook, we’re maintaining EPS guidance midpoint of $11.32 as reported and $11.60 adjusted. Our forecasted organic growth range is in that 2% to 3% for a full fiscal year, and we're anticipating record earnings in FY ‘19 to the Win Strategy execution. We are really in a great position to perform regardless how the macro environment turns out, and there's a number of positives that are going to serve as a tailwind to our performance as you look forward for the next several years. The first is we're still early days of the new Win Strategy and execution, and you can see the progress we’ve made just in the first five years of it, 15% to 17% and CLARCOR acquisition, so lots of headroom as we continue to improve with the Win Strategy. Integration of CLARCOR is showing lots of promise, with upside -- continued upside to margins as we continue to improve on the manufacturing consolidation. And the LORD Corporation brings a top-quartile performing company into the portfolio that has attractive technologies in materials science, vibration controls and will generate that incremental organic growth margin and cash flow that I referred to earlier. So, we continue to have confidence in reaching our second set of financial targets, the ones we set for FY '23. And those are, just to remind everybody, to grow organically 150 basis points faster than the market, to achieve segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, continue our free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%, and this would all yield an EPS CAGR of 10% plus over that time period. So, in sum, we anticipate another record year for FY '19 and we're making progress toward that second generation of 5-year targets. And with that, I'll hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Tom. I'd like you to now refer to Slide #7. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 increased 13% compared to the prior year reaching $3. 17. Adjustments from the 2019 as-reported results are business realignment expenses of $0.03. This compares to fiscal 2018 adjustments of $0. 04 for business realignment expenses and the $0.06 for CLARCOR costs to achieve. On Slide 8 you'll find the significant components of the $0.37 walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 for the third quarter of fiscal 2018 to $3.17 for the third quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.15. Aerospace segment generated 26% more income in 2019 with meaningful organic growth and considerably higher margins. The Diversified Industrial segment generated consistent year-over-year income with higher margins despite declining revenues. Lower corporate G&A accounted for a $0.12 increase driven by market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation. Lower interest expense and higher other expense lowered earnings per share a net $0.01 and lower average shares resulted in an increase of $0.11. Slide nine shows total Parker segment sales and segment operating margin for the third quarter. Total company organic sales in the third quarter increased year-over-year by 1.8%. This was negatively offset by 3% of currency impact and 0.5% from a prior year divestiture. Total segment of the margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.2% compared to 16.3% for the same quarter last year. This 90 basis point improvement reflects productivity improvements and the benefits of synergies from acquisitions combined with the positive impact from our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to Slide 10. I'll discuss the business segments starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the third quarter North America organic sales were relatively flat as compared to the same quarter last year. With flat sales operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.5% of sales versus 16.4% in the prior year. A onetime labor settlement in Mexico and a less favorable mix put pressure on margins in the quarter. Despite these headwinds North America continued to deliver improved margins which reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as synergies from acquisitions and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide 11. Organic sales for the third quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 0.7%. Currency negatively impacted the quarter by 7.5% and a prior year divestiture accounted for 0.7% loss of sales. On relatively flat sales operating margin for the third quarter on an adjusted basis improved 120 basis points to 16. 5% of sales. This margin performance reflects our team's continued progress in growing distribution along with improved operating cost efficiencies from realignment initiatives and the benefits of The Win Strategy. I'll now move to Slide 12 to review the Aerospace Systems Segment. Organic revenues increased an impressive 9.2% during the third quarter due to continued broad-based growth across all Aerospace markets. Operating margin for the third quarter improved an impressive 260 basis points to 20.7% of sales reflecting the benefits of higher volume lower development costs and cost efficiencies from The Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to Slide 13. We show the details of order rates by segment. Total orders decreased by 4% as of the quarter end. This year-over-year decline is a consolidation of minus 6% from Diversified Industrial North America orders minus 4% from Diversified Industrial International orders and a positive 2% from Aerospace Systems orders. On Slide 14 we report cash flow from operating activities. We had strong cash flow this quarter. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $1.093 billion. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the first quarter cash flow from operations was 12. 1% of sales. This compares to 8.6% of sales for the same period last year. The revised full year earnings guidance for fiscal 2019 is outlined on Slide 15. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales for the year is now expected to be relatively flat compared to the prior year within a range of minus 0.4% to plus 0.6%. Anticipated organic growth for the full year is forecasted in the range of 2% to 3% or 2.5% at the midpoint. The prior year divestiture negatively impacts sales by 0.4% and currency is expected to have a negative 2.1% impact. We've calculated the impact of currencies to spot rates as of the quarter ended March 31. We have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remainder of this fiscal year. You can see the forecasted as-reported and adjusted operating margins by segment. Total Parker margins are forecasted to increase approximately 100 basis points from prior year reaching an adjusted range of 17. 0% to 17.4% for the full fiscal year. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. This anticipates the tax rate tax expense run rate of 23.5% for the fourth quarter. For the full year the guidance range on an as-reported earnings per share basis is now $11.17 to $11.47 or $11.32 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis the guidance range is now $11.45 to $11.75 or $11.60 at the midpoint. The adjustments to the as-reported forecast made in this guidance include business realignment expenses of approximately $16 million or $0.09 per share for the full year fiscal 2019 with the associated savings projected to be $10 million. The guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $14 million or $0.08 per share of CLARCOR cost-to-achieve expenses. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to achieve a run rate of $125 million by the end of fiscal 2019 which represents an incremental $75 million of run rate savings in fiscal 2019. We remain on track to realize the forecasted $160 million run rate synergy savings and $100 million revenue synergies by fiscal '20. And finally guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $0.11 per share for the second quarter tax expense related to U.S. Tax Reform. This forecast does not include any results from our announced acquisition of LORD Corporation or any other acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2019. In August we will give you an update on our projections for LORD but we will not include LORD's results in our guidance until we have closed the transaction. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. On Slide 16 you'll find the components of our full year guidance relative to the outperformance in the third quarter versus our initial guidance going into the quarter. Actual third quarter earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.18 higher than previously guided due to $0.04 driven by excellent operating results lower net corporate G&A interest and other expense of $0.07 lower income tax expense of $0.06 and fewer shares outstanding contributing $0.01. For the balance of the year we are projecting $0.16 per share lower segment operating income due to anticipated lower volume and $0.04 per share higher net corporate G&A interest and other expense. We expect these to be partially offset by $0.01 from lower taxes and $0.01 from lower shares outstanding. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom I'll turn the call back over to you for your summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Cathy. So, we're very pleased with the continued progress. We've got much room for improvement still with The Win Strategy. And with the solid execution to date, we are projecting record earnings for fiscal 2019. And we feel that we're well on our way to being a top-quartile financial performing company. Again, my thank you to the global team for all their hard work and their dedication to Parker. And with that, Jonathan, I'll hand it over to you to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Your question, please.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Just like to start on industrial North America on the margin profile here. I would have expected a little better number there this quarter, I mean, margins there are pretty flat, volumes pretty flat. But you should have had some improvement on getting rid of some of the duplicate costs from CLARCOR next year, some accrual of cost synergies from the CLARCOR acquisition. So, just any color you can give us on what the offsets where there this quarter?
Tom Williams:
Yes Nathan, its Tom. So, there's a couple headwinds that we ran into for the quarter that really masked some pretty good performance by North America, specifically Cathy referred to it a little bit in her comments. We had a one-time labor settlement in Mexico which is about $5 million. This was in case people aren’t familiar with it, there was about 35 companies that were impacted, they were on the Maquiladora range region of the country, and it was a one-time labor settlement to settle a union strike that impacted all 35 companies and that was about $5 million. The other is that we saw a marked shift versus our guide in the distribution mix. So, we saw destocking of about 300 basis points of impact on the topline on distribution. So, we had much less distribution volume than we had expected, and of course everybody recognizes the difference in margins between distribution and OEM. And then, while we were flat to prior year in volume, we were soft to the guide that we gave you. And so, those three things together, we were light by about 100 basis point to our guide in North America, and that's what makes up the 100 basis points. So, without that, and these are some pretty unique things that happened, we of course we couldn’t foresee the Mexico labor thing when we did the guide or the mix in volume shift. So, without that, I felt very good about how North America performed, minus that and those are one-off type of things that shouldn’t repeat other than the distribution destocking from what we can tell looking at our trend lines is going to continue into Q4, but just not quite the same kind of destocking rate.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. So, the destocking distributor is going to have somewhat negative impact on the mix there for North America in 4Q as well?
Tom Williams:
Yes. But that's reflected in our guide. We have that in the guide -- in our guide for Q4 is 18.1%, so still pretty nice margins for Q4 in North America, and that'll be better in prior year by 30 bps, but yet it'll still wait on North America a little bit.
Nathan Jones:
Got it. Then, maybe if we just broaden out that North American margin discussion for the full year, you’re at 20 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint of your guidance now. And Cathy mentioned $75 million in additional synergies from CLARCOR this year. That would be 110 basis points by itself of margin expansions, so maybe you can comment a little bit more on the full-year impacts and what kinds of things are the offsets there over the full year and how we should think about those going forward?
Tom Williams:
Yes Nathan, its Tom again. I think the full year is impacted by the same things that I've mentioned earlier that the distribution mix really is impacting the whole second half of the year and weighing down on that number, the labor settlement weighed down on it as well. We continue to see progress, we're probably about two-thirds of the way through as far as the productivity improvements that we needed to get from CLARCOR, but that's how I’d characterize as a mixed headwind, a little less volume than we had expected versus our prior guide that would be another factor because when we did the original guidance, we had quite a bit more volume associated with that. So, the combination of volume, mix, the labor settlement is pretty much contained in Q3 but those are weighing down the full-year number.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, thanks very much for the color, I'll pass it on.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks, good morning everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
So, maybe just kind of following a little bit on Nathan's question and your commentary, Tom, on distribution. Is it your sense that distributors destock now because they pulled forward demand at the end of the calendar year last year? Or what are maybe kind of some of the underlying things that is impacting the destock that you're seeing this past quarter and then into this quarter?
Lee Banks:
Joe, this is Lee. I'll answer that question. I think as long as I'm on, I'll take an opportunity just to update everybody on the markets too, if I can. So, as Tom said, noticeable inventory destocking in North America channel in Q3. And we expect that -- you could tell the imbalance of stock material was improving through the quarter. It's improved in April. But we do expect it to continue through Q4. A couple of key things different. One, kind of our visibility to this is kind of a 30-day lag. And so, we didn't have perfect information as we went into Q3. Second, there were some noticeable slowdowns in some end markets that our North American distributors service that I think caught them off-guard. Definitely, a slowdown in in-plant automotive investment, which is -- it comes in waves depending on platforms and built schedules; continued softness in the microelectronics area; and then, softness on land-based oil and gas. And there's two factors taking place there. One, there's takeaway capacity, mostly in Alberta and the Permian Basin. But there's also an overbuild at some of the key land-based oil and gas OEMs. So, I expect that to cycle its way through as time goes on. And then, just lastly, I would say as order entry was accelerating, which led to this inventory destocking, our team likes to use inventory as a real competitive weapon out there. So kind of a natural thing that happened, but that's what's different than Q2. I'm just going to take a second, if I can, and update on the market. So, I really put these markets in three buckets. And if I thought about distribution at a high level, it was pretty neutral for the quarter I'm not going to comment anymore and I gave you the most colors, but it varies by region. But North America was neutral. On the positive side for us, they continue to grow around the world. Aerospace, obviously, I'll comment on that. Really natural resource, construction, forestry, engines, lawn and turf North America-centric, rail is very strong. Heavy-duty truck Class 8 backlogs are very strong. There's probably some softening coming in the future based on order entry there, but right now the backlogs are very strong. Material handling and refrigeration end markets along with telecom and life sciences. So, a lot of positive markets still right now. I talked about distribution, which I put in that neutral category right now. But then, I'd say on the soft side, there's some trade-related end markets. We highlighted those last quarter. But general industrial, machine tools, automotive, mills and foundries continue to be soft. And then, there's oil and gas which is soft based on where we play, which predominantly is on the upstream side. We have exposure to all areas, but upstream. And then, power gen and semiconductor, microelectronics. Just quickly on Aerospace. A great quarter. Commercial OEM up 6% for the quarter. We're going to finish the year plus 9%. So, strong backlogs there. Military OEM, up 16% for the quarter. We're [forecasting up 13%] for the year. So, very strong there. Commercial MRO, as you would suspect, very strong at 11% for the quarter; forecasting plus 6% for the year. And military MRO, a very strong plus 10% for the quarter; forecasting plus 2%. So, year-over-year for the quarter, plus 9.2%. And then, rounding for the full year, approximating 8%. I'll just comment on Asia as a region because there's a lot of questions on that. It's clear that China was impacted -- has been impacted by broad -- trade challenges in Q3. This was compounded really by a longer Chinese New Year shutdown versus very high comps. What happened around the Chinese New Year shutdown, there was slowness in the economy. A lot of OEM customers decided to shut down on either one side or the other of Chinese New Year. So, a little longer shutdown than we typically see. Microelectronics markets continue to really contract with a negative impact on Korea, Japan and ASEAN regions. And then, Japan, Korea also experienced really a depressed export market, heavy percentage export to China, and that's really around machine tools and automotive and trucks. So, it's probably more than you wanted, Joe, but now you have it.
Joe Ritchie:
No. That's exactly what I wanted. Thanks, Lee. I appreciate all the color. And if I could just maybe follow on. Obviously, commercial aero, the MRO piece of the business sounds like it was a little bit better than we anticipated for the quarter. I know that you guys were originally talking about some headwinds in the second half of the year for the Aero business, both from an aftermarket standpoint, but also because R&D was stepping up. So, if you could maybe just provide a little bit more color on what R&D was for the quarter and what we should be thinking about in terms of that for 4Q as well?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Joe, I'll help you with that one. We do see a little bit of -- the comps for the fourth quarter, we had significant military MRO last year fourth quarter. So, the comps for fourth quarter are higher than usual, and so that's part of the headwind in terms of volume or growth that we were talking about. And we still see that as a headwind. The development costs for the quarter were lower than we expected. Some of the costs got pushed into the fourth quarter. We did 4.3% development costs in Q3, with the push of some of those into the fourth quarter, and we expected fourth quarter to be high. Right now, we're forecasting fourth quarter to be 7.5% to 8% for the quarter. That'll get us to a total year development cost of somewhere between 5.5% and 6%.
Joe Ritchie:
Great, thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Raso from Evercore ISI. Your question, please.
David Raso:
Hi, good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, David.
David Raso:
I was just curious, with the order rates that you're seeing, and if you can clarify, where do you think the distribution destocking ends? Is it done in your mind by June 30? Just curious, big picture, Tom, just how you're thinking about looking into fiscal '20 with the order rates. Maybe you can help us a little bit to kind of baseline. Are we thinking of the year as a year that can return to growth? Not just earnings I'm talking about, of course, but revenue. Just seeing where the order book is trending now, inventory levels, just trying to get some perspective. And maybe if you could help us with where is the backlog today versus a year ago or how you're thinking about fiscal 4Q. Where does the backlog end the fiscal year year-over-year?
Tom Williams:
So, David, it's Tom. Just a couple of comments about really kind of how we formed our view for Q4. It was influenced by Q3's orders. So, we see a negative 6% in North America. And that kind of declined throughout the quarter. However, we saw an improvement in April to where -- and we really thought that our order entry rate at minus 6% was probably influenced by about 300 basis points by distributions destocking. We look at the sales into distribution and the sales out of distribution, that was about a 300 basis points delta there. Hence we forecast for Q4 about a 2.5% softness in North America. So, that's little better than the order entry, picking up on a little better April order entry that we saw. International stayed pretty consistent through the quarter as well as April. Hence we kept international at minus 4% for Q4. And then, Aerospace is a plus 3%, piggybacking on what Cathy talked about as far as the comparables to last year. So, it's hard, as you might imagine, to predict FY '20 and I'm not going to do that because it would really help us to have another three months under our belt. I think you can project, which is what we have in the guide here, that the destocking will continue through the quarter. And I think we've got a better way of graphing that now to see these trends a little bit easier, looking at it in tables. And so, I think we need a few more months to know whether we can say that it's going to end in June. But, clearly, that gap between purchases and sales at our distributors is narrowing. So, the trend looks good. Whether it will get done in the complete quarter, we don't know. I think when you look at the comparables to last year, we continue -- the comps get a little bit better, but they're still pretty high. And so, maybe our first half is a little more challenged and the second half becomes a little more attractive when you look at some of the order entry comparables. I still feel very optimistic about the underlying growth. If I take distribution as an example and back out the destocking, our view is distribution was growing around 3%, low single digits in North America. And so, I think that's going to be there once the destocking plays through for the reasons that Lee went through. And we'll give you the visibility for sure when we get there, but I'm still optimistic. A lot of us -- this noise is going to play through. We have a couple of tough comps in the beginning of the year, but that should help us in the second half.
David Raso:
And given your April comments and maybe just what you're seeing and what you're hearing from customers, would it be fair to say as a bit of a baseline, given a little bit easier comp and your commentary about April, you would not expect further order deterioration year-over-year in North America and international?
Tom Williams:
Well, you still get tough comps.
David Raso:
On a year-over-year declines you would use this base case?
Tom Williams:
It's hard to say. I think Q4 will still be -- we're forecasting to be soft for Q4 based on our guide. When you get to Q1, it's still a pretty good comparable, pretty tough comparable at a plus 8% for North America. So, I think you still need a little bit more time for that to play through. But at some point we're going to pick our head above that. And there's still that underlying growth that I'm optimistic that it's going to come through. The destocking will finish, the trade tensions will finish. But, for us, the trade tensions has been negligible cost impact, but it's been more demand impact. And I think more of a true growth trajectory will be seen for the company.
David Raso:
And last question. Just I think maybe some of these order growth rates were a little bit weaker than some people thought. Is there anything, when you look at 2020, how you think about toggling between price, any cost maybe relief that you've seen that allows you maybe to be a little more aggressive on sales? Just trying to think of the toggle between -- obviously, you're dedicated to your margins, but also maybe the orders here a little weaker than people thought. And I'm not sure if there's any costs related that's going to allow you to be a little more aggressive next year. Just maybe frame that balance for us.
Lee Banks:
David's, it's Lee. I think we always try to price to win. So, we target where we want to go. We're very cognizant of the balance between input costs and what's going on and we always strive to be margin neutral. So, I expect it to be a lower inflation environment going -- next year than what we've been experiencing.
David Raso:
I appreciate it, thank you.
Cathy Suever:
All right, thank you David.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your question, please.
Andrew Obin:
Yes, good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just again, I'm sure I'll ask another question on destocking. Just thinking about where the industrial cycle is. Your goal of 150 basis points outgrowth, should we expect a snapback in growth rates once destocking is over? And if not, how does this reconcile, as I said, with your target of global industrial growth for plus 150 basis points? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom. So, the goal versus the global industrial production is really over a cycle, over multiple years. And if you look at us the last really two years approximately, we were growing in that anywhere from 6% to 10% organically. And so, we were clearly growing 2x to 3x global industrial production index. Right now, we'd be a hair below that with global industrial production index in that 1.5% to 2% range. I would expect, once the destocking plays through and the China demand stabilizes post trade concerns, that you would see us in -- not a snapback. I would not characterize it as a snapback. I would characterize it as a slower, moderate growth world. Not the 6% to 10% that we were living in when we snapped out of the industrial recession of 2015 and 2016, but more of a steady growth. And with all the things we have, extra tailwinds that we have to drive earnings growth between The Win Strategy naturally, between efficiencies and the plant closures, LORD coming on and the synergies we'll get there, we have a lot of EPS growth that we can do over the next several years in a moderate-growth world. So, I feel very strongly that that 19% target is still the target, even with the extra amortization we're going to take on with LORD and all that. We still have an opportunity to hit that, and that's the plan.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up on sort of adjustment to fourth quarter guidance on segment operating income. You identified a number of one-time items in North American performance. And frankly, if you pull that out, we thought incrementals were very solid. So, just wondering why so conservative on Q4. Why don't you think you could get more offsets on top line through execution to fourth quarter? Did I just miss something in your commentary? And if I did, apologize.
Tom Williams:
No, no, you didn't any. Andrew, again, it's Tom. We've got really -- we had some softness in Q4 and we have a very attractive decremental that's in there. It's only, like, minus -- it's less than minus 10% decremental. So, we are -- that underlying margin enhancement is still there, being offset by the volume. And we still have the distribution pressure with the destocking, with that mix shift hitting us. We'll still come in Q4 at 18.1% operating margin for Q4. So, it's very nice numbers. But I think that is part of the story that's attractive going into FY '20 that that destocking is going to play through. It's not going to continue forever and we're going to get some upside for that as we turn the corner into FY '20.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you, so much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research. Your question, please?
Jeff Sprague:
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. First, I was just wondering if Cathy perhaps could explain a little bit more what exactly that adjustment was in corporate and what we should expect going forward.
Cathy Suever:
Sure, Jeff. We carried some investments to support a deferred comp plan and the accounting rules require us to mark-to-market that balance. And in the third quarter, we saw a nice gain in the market share of those investments. Now, that compares to second quarter where we had a significant loss. So, it's a mark-to-market investment fluctuation that we're seeing come through our corporate G&A line.
Jeff Sprague:
And I was also just wondering back on kind of the whole order equation. It looks like your organic revenues have historically very, very closely tracked your orders, right, with maybe a quarter delay. You don't seem to be signaling a revenue contraction in North America that would be commensurate with the order decline that we just saw and perhaps continues based on your commentary. Am I missing something there? Or is there just something in kind of the way this destock is playing through that's coloring your view? Any additional color there would be helpful.
Tom Williams:
No. Jeff, it's Tom. You're not missing anything. In general, you're right that our follow-up period orders tend to generate the next quarter's sales. With the exception of the destocking, it was more pronounced in Q3. And what's giving us optimism, which is why we have the guidance not quite as soft in North America, is that April orders improved quite a bit from March. They're still not out of the woods. We still have the destocking, but improved better to where -- what you're seeing with that 2.5% is about what we saw in April. And our sense as far as when we talk to our distributors, we'll see the rest of the quarter. in a lot of cases on those type of orders, we can cycle them all within the same period.
Jeff Sprague:
Okay, thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Your question, please?
Ann Duignan:
Hi good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann Duignan:
Maybe switching gears a little bit. Could you give us a little bit of color around Rest of World markets? I know you talked about Asia, but could you talk a little bit in more depth about Europe and what you're seeing there by end market or by country?
Lee Banks:
Yes. Ann, it's Lee. I spent quite a bit of time at Hannover Fair and then at the bauma Show. And at the bauma Show, if you talked to industrial customers, it's generally soft. And I would -- a lot of it seems to be trade related in some way or another. So, these would be generally machine tool companies, et cetera. If you are in a construction equipment, forestry industry, you can't build equipment fast enough. So, there's still a high demand. Distribution markets are still strong throughout EMEA. And then, there's a little bit -- it's bouncing off a low number, but there's an acceleration around the world around offshore oil and gas, slowly, but surely. So, that's positive and we're seeing some of that in the North Sea. I would say, in Asia, I'm not sure I can really add anything more than what I have on there. There is definitely softness around some of the industrial markets we're there. Construction equipment, et cetera, still seems to be still pretty good. And distribution as a whole kind of held in there in Asia Pacific.
Ann Duignan:
Okay, thank you. I appreciate the color. And then, just maybe one follow-up on North America distribution. Do you know how much of your North American distribution is leveraged to oil and gas? Or even by region, distributors in Texas, or any metric that you can use to give us some sense of the size of that business?
Lee Banks:
Nothing I can repeat right now. That might be something we could take offline. But the exposure tends to be around those distributors that are in that area of trade. So, it's like you said. It's Texas, Oklahoma, around the Gulf down there, is where it is. But it's something we can look at.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And the destocking was broad based in the oil and gas sector or regions?
Tom Williams:
Yes. And also, we've got distributors that do a lot around in-plant automotive, which is kind of spread all the way from the Midwest down through the south. That amount of investment and activity has slowed down quite a bit. And then, we've got distributors on the West Coast -- mostly; some on the East Coast -- involved with the microelectronics industry, and that's been pretty soft, as you know. But if you went out and talked to a lot of our other distributors, they're very positive about business even with -- in the oil and gas area. It's just a slowdown from the high level of activity that there was which has led to this destocking.
Ann Duignan:
Thank you. I appreciate it. I'll get back in line.
Tom Williams:
Thank You Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your question please.
Nigesl Coe:
So, no points here for originality. I want to go back to the order numbers. And fully understand the comments about the destocking in the MRO channel. But I'm wondering if we're still restocking through calendar 2018. And therefore, even if we do get to a point where the destocking stops, are we then comping against restocking activity and, therefore, still have challenging comps through the back half of the year? And then, the second part of my question, it's really the same question is, normally, it takes four to six quarters for negative order comps to cycle through back to positive. Is there any reason to assume that this cycle is going to be different and we can get back to positive comps earlier than four quarters?
Tom Williams:
Nigel, it's Tom. I think when you look at the comparables, I think we're going to -- the next quarter, we've given what we think for this Q4. I think when you go into FY '20, clearly, the first quarter Q1 of FY '20 has a pretty tough comp. And after that, everything has become more balanced. I do think that everything we -- when we do our discussions with our distributors, once this channel destocking plays through, we feel that that underlying growth -- when we look at the trend lines on [purchases versus sales] to our distributors, that delta was about 300 basis points. So, North America came in basically flat. So, that means if you take out the destocking, North America would have grown around 300 basis points, a positive 3%. So, whenever that plays through, I think that's approximately where we're going to end up. The question is how long does it take to play through. We don't have that complete answer yet. We saw that difference start to net down, which was a positive in April. But until it finishes, we're not going to know. I think we're doing a better job of graphically displaying that internally, so we can see the trends better. But it does lag 30 days as far as when our distributors give us that visibility. So, we don't always have perfect information when we give you quarterly update. So, when we give you August, we'll have a better view on exactly where we are with the destocking.
Nigesl Coe:
Thanks, Tom. I appreciate that. And then, obviously, with FY '20 in mind, just wondering, with Aerospace margins performing so well, are we at a level where we can still grow from here into FY '20 and beyond? Just curious how your view is kind of the next two or three years on Aero margins? Can they go into the low 20s?
Tom Williams:
Nigel, it's Tom again. I feel very strongly that they can. We're going to get to an equilibrium, which we're approaching that this year on R&D. If you look at this year, our mix of OEM to MRO actually got a little bit disadvantaged to us versus FY '18 that we have with a less MRO mix versus OEM. And so, that's going to naturally, over time -- it's not going to happen instantaneously, but over a multi-year period of time, that MRO mix is going to come up. We continue -- part of what's driving these great margins is the team has done a very nice job of entering into service productivity. They've done a very nice job with The Win Strategy. And, of course, they're getting a little bit of leverage with a lower R&D. So, while the R&D may be reaching equilibrium, that entry into service productivity, The Win Strategy things and continued volume is going to continue to give us margin expansion opportunities with Aerospace. So, I think your approximation of where we can head is spot on and that's what we're going to try to do.
Nigesl Coe:
Thanks Tom. Appreciate it.
Tom Williams:
Thank you Nigel.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Your question please.
Unidentified Analyst:
Hi. This is actually Themis on for Jamie. Just a question on international margins where I think you raised your margin assumptions despite a weaker top line forecast. So, can you help us better understand what drove that?
Tom Williams:
You're talking about for Q4?
Unidentified Analyst:
Yes.
Tom Williams:
Yes. We're building off of what we did with the prior quarter, which Q3 came in very nicely at 16.5%. And so, our Q4 guide is 16.6%. So, that's in line with what we did with the prior quarter. That's building on prior-period restructuring that we've done which continues to give us leverage. The Win Strategy. And so, we feel good that, even with the softness in the top line, we have enough momentum with what we're doing from an earnings standpoint to keep those margins about where we were in Q3.
Unidentified Analyst:
Got it. Thank you. And then, maybe real quick, could you provide some more color around your price cost assumptions for Q4?
Lee Banks:
Yes, I would say commodities and input cost are basically neutral. There's some that have softened or some that have accelerated and I would just expect this to be margin neutral here in Q4.
Unidentified Analyst:
Thank you very much. Will get back in queue.
Tom Williams:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from RW Baird.
Unidentified Analyst:
It's Joe Grabowski on for Mig this morning. Most of my questions have been answered. I guess I'll just throw one out there. You mentioned a slowdown in in-plant automotive and you talked about that business kind of comes in waves depending on platforms. But we have seen a slowdown in auto builds around the world. So, maybe a little bit more color on that dynamic and where you see it kind of over the next several quarters.
LeeBanks:
Yes. So, the way I look at our automotive exposure is basically in plant and then MRO activity. The big dollar amounts are when they're tooling up for a new platform, new transmission line [indiscernible] etc. A lot of our distribution base gets involved with those types of investments and their machine tool customers. So, that's where the slowdown is. It's -- these slowdowns tend to happen between model builds. It's nothing that's systemic long term, but it's just a slowdown right now at that level.
Unidentified Analyst:
That's helpful. Like I said most of my other questions have been answered. So thank you.
Tom Williams:
Okay. Thank you for calling.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi good morning.
Tom Williams:
Good morning Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just want to follow up on a couple of things and I'll beat the dead horse a little bit more here or North America distribution. I think, last quarter, Lee, you mentioned that we were kind of at the end of destocking. You had lived through a little bit then. I guess that sign wave in distributor stocking levels, what got worse? What got better? And then, I guess, what got worse again that kind of led to the early call on that being balanced as of last quarter and then coming back in again?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Josh, so it was a lot of phone calls last quarter. I'm always in touch with our distribution base just kind of getting a level of what's happening. One, it's the holiday periods. So sometimes people aren't as focused on what's happening day to day, but the one thing that got worse during the quarter was really those things. It was around a significant slowdown around land-based oil and gas. And again, it was all the way from Alberta all the way down through the Permian Basin. And then, with some of the key OEM customers that our distributors really take care of, there was an overbuild of equipment which will work its way through. So, that slowed down. And that wasn't so much on the radar screen when we were checking last time. So, I think that's what the over correction was. And then, the other things I talked about. Just kind of a slowdown in in-plant automotive and then continued softness in microelectronics. And then, lastly, I think we've been a little smarter here. We had that last 30 days of data because we do -- our distributors do report their sales. And we would have seen that. The data would have said something different than a phone interview. So, it would have helped.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. But, I guess, within that, there's something that presumably felt less bad or got better, call it, 60, 90 days ago that maybe changed your mind on since then, but was there something that actually did get better or was it just the end of destocking that didn't happen?
Lee Banks:
I think -- so, the destocking is the headline number. But I think if you were to call out to any of our distributors, they would feel like these are good times. There's a very good underlying growth happening throughout the country. It's just there was just a rapid growth taking place. There was an inventory stocking taking place and probably got out ahead of what demand was.
Tom Williams:
Josh, it's Tom. I just wanted to add on maybe for everybody else to -- Lee touched on this early on. Our distributors view inventory as a strategic advantage and they view it as a market share opportunity. So, remember how rapidly the inflection was when we go from '16 into '17 and we're all growing at 8%, 10%. So, our distributors were really hustling to build those kind of inventory positions that they wanted to have. I think that correction and their sales and operating planning correcting to current demand probably didn't happen quick enough on their end. We had not the same kind of visibility that we would like to have because it lags by 30 days. And I think our technology, how we looked at it, by the fact that we are now trending this, it's easier to see trends versus it is to just look at raw data. I think you have all that phenomena, the rapid inflection, maybe an opportunity for distributors to take share and maybe being a little more aggressive on that. And that was -- it's playing through. So, I think we'll never have perfect visibility, but I think the data analytics we now have will give us a little better color when we give our guidance going forward.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got it. That's helpful. And then, just a follow-up, obviously, with the announcement earlier this week, engineered materials becomes a much bigger piece of the portfolio on a pro forma basis. How did your Engineered Materials business perform this quarter?
Tom Williams:
Josh, it's Tom. It continues to be one of our higher margin businesses. And I would say it was very much in line with the total company as far as growth, in the same kind of organic growth as the total company had. Remember, it's an industrial orientated just like LORD has. It has aerospace exposure as well. I think the difference, what LORD brings that we're excited about, is LORD is a content shift for us on automotive. First of all, remember that LORD is 70% not automotive. It has a fantastic aerospace portfolio and a great industrial portfolio. LORD grew 14% organically in Q1. And if you factor in currency, they grew about 7%. So, they have the same kind of currency headwinds we have. But the automotive difference, like while we felt pressure on automotive, they do not feel the same kind of pressure because the bill of material for an AGV or an EV, if you look at the thermal management and the structural adhesives on light-weighting is about 10 times to 20 times. That's the right number, 10 times to 20 times their bill of material on a combustion engine machine. That's why they have the opportunity to not be impacted by automotive and why we were so attracted to them, plus the fact that they've got this great aerospace portfolio that's growing just like ours and the job they're doing on industrial. So, just look at their growth rate. 14% organic growth in Q1 is -- I don't care how you slice it, that's pretty darn good.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Understood. I appreciate the color Tom.
Tom Williams:
Jonathan we have time for one more question please.
Operator:
Certainly. Then our final question for today comes from the line of Julian Mitchell from Barclays. Your question please.
Julian Mitchell:
Maybe just a quick one around the North America margin outlook. Just wanted to sort of test your conviction. And if we see in fiscal '20 another year of low single-digit, but positive sales growth in Industrial North America, how confident you are that margins can expand from that, what, 16.8% level, I guess, at the midpoint for this year?
Tom Williams:
Julian, it's Tom. I'm still comfortable that we can expand those margins. Absolutely. We've got tailwinds on just The Win Strategy in general and all things we're doing related to simplification, Lean, supply chain work and our value pricing strategies. We still got upside on what we are doing from an innovation standpoint. And we're going to continue to get some tail wind as we continue to get better in the plans on the plant consolidations. The good thing is that we're seeing the progress. it was masked a little bit in Q3 because of those one-offs that we talked about earlier. But we still feel good about that trajectory. So I think you would expect normal type of incrementals coming on volume gain for North America going into next year.
Julian Mitchell:
And then, my second one, I think, Tom, on the last call, you talked about this still being a great industrial environment. Clearly, the destocking has dented things a little bit. I wonder, in that light, if there were maybe any extra cost measures being taken with the temporary workforce, for example, or those sorts of levers that you're pulling as an organization as you go through this softer top line patch?
Tom Williams:
Yes, Julian. Absolutely. We're pretty good at that. That's our pedigree, our track record. We'll make all those variable cost adjustments whether it's over time, temps, et cetera, ratcheting back and having the whole variable cost structure match the order entry output. And we have some -- you can utilize attrition. There's a lot of things you can do to help you get there and we track that religiously. So, I would expect that that would not be a problem for us.
Julian Mitchell:
Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Thanks Julian. This concludes our Q&A for today and our earnings call. Thank you for joining us. Rob and I will be available to take your calls if you have any further questions. Thanks everyone. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does include the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Fiscal 2019 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct question-and-answer session and instructions will be provided at that time. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to turn the conference over to the Chief Financial Officer, Cathy Suever. Please go ahead.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, James. Good morning. Welcome to Parker Hannifin's second quarter fiscal year 2019 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number two, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement, addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide three. To begin our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide comments and highlights from the second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's second quarter performance, together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2019. Tom, will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number four. Tom will get us started.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning everybody. Thanks for your interest in Parker and your participation today. So I'm going to start by first highlighting Parker's business model, which Cathy mentions on slide four, specifically those competitive differentiators that really help us stand out versus other companies and versus our competition. So first on the list and first and foremost is the Win Strategy. It's our business system. It's a proven strategy that has a long track record of success. The second will be our decentralized divisional structure. We like that structure because it's close to the action. We want our people close to the customers and close to the P&L, so that we know whether we're making money or not. The breadth and integration of Parker's technology portfolio really creates this combination technologies that creates a unique, customer value proposition. I think this is best demonstrated by the fact that 60% of our revenue comes from customers that buy more and more of those technologies. We make engineered products. About 85% of our products have some kind of intellectual property wrapped around them. Our products have long product life cycles, which is a great thing. We're balanced between OEM and aftermarket and support this business model only requires low operating CapEx requirements, which is very positive. We've got a great track record on cash generation and deployment and we want to continue that over the cycle going forward. So some key takeaways for the quarter. Safety is always our top priority. We had really strong performance; 23% reduction in recordable incidents. This is building on great progress from prior quarters. My thanks to everyone for their efforts on owning safety, the leaders and all the team members of the company. And I would just remind shareholders there's a very close linkage between safety performance and financial and customer performance. And you can see that linkage as we improve safety seeing the performance in our customer and our financial metrics. We put up a number of second quarter records. This was on sales, segment operating margins, net income and EPS. We reached 16.4% as reported on operating margins in the quarter. This is an unprecedented level of performance for the second quarter. If you were to go back years ago it would normally be a Q4 type of performance to get what we did in Q2, a really significant job for everybody around the world. Our organic growth came in positive at almost 6%, partially offset by currency and we had strong cash flow and free cash flow conversion for the quarter driven by operating income growth and good working capital management. As a result of all this, we're increasing earnings guidance for the fiscal year and we remain confident in our ability to reach our new guidance for FY 2019 as well as FY 2023 five-year financial targets. So my thanks to the team members of Parker around the world. Great progress, great results. Thank you so much. So, a couple more comments about the quarter. A strong quarter, nice earnings improvement year-over-year as I mentioned in the number of records. From a net standpoint our sales came in at 3%, again with almost 6% organic, which is very close to our guidance spot on. Order rates moderated. It was a combination of tougher comparables as well as growth moderating. We'll talk more about that during the Q&A. Net income was a Q2 record, which included income tax expense related U.S. Tax Reform of $14 million. And segment operating margins again was a record 16.4% as reported. This compares if you look what was -- the previous Q2 record was 14.4%. So if I could just comment for a second. Most of the time when you beat a margin record, you beat it by 10 to 50 basis points. So nominal type of beat. The fact that we beat this by 200 basis points is very significant. We almost never do something like that. That was remarkable. And of note is that this includes the CLARCOR intangibles as well as the cost to achieve. Again, a really outstanding result. If I would switch now on an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins for the total company were 16.6%, which was up year-over-year 170 basis points versus Q2 of FY 2018. Aerospace had another great quarter making three straight quarters with margins over 19%. A great job of aerospace team demonstrating really nice returns on the significant amount of investments that we made there over the last decade or so. And what we've done is we've built a long-cycle, high-performing business that we're excited about now and we're excited about what the future is going to bring for the aerospace business. On an as reported EBITDA standpoint EBITDA margins were up 120 basis points to 17.0% or 17.2% on an adjusted basis. So I spent a fair amount of time talking about margins. There's three big factors that drove margin expansion for us. Again, it starts with the Win Strategy and execution the team's doing on that. The productivity what we demonstrated in the plants and the plant closures improving there and supply chain optimization. Cash flow switching to cash was strong. We expect to exceed 100% free cash flow conversion and operating cash greater than 10% of sales for the fiscal year. This will be excluding discretionary pension contribution. And then on share repurchase where we bought a total of $500 million in Q2. This is made up of a discretionary repurchase of $450 million and our 10b5-1 program repurchasing $50 million. So now switching to the outlook. We're increasing EPS guidance by $0.09 at the midpoint to $11.29. This is on an as-reported basis. And we're now increasing it $0.20 at the midpoint to $11.60 on an adjusted EPS basis. This reflects the strong first half that we had and the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. We're forecasting moderating sales growth based on our current order entry and currency impact and this has a forecasted organic growth range of 2% to 4% for the full fiscal year. We are in a great position the best position we've ever been to outperform regardless of the market environment. Several factors underpin our confidence and ability to perform here. New Win Strategy is demonstrating a distinct step-change in performance. I think the best example is, if you would look at our margin expansion over the last four years that's a great indicator that there's clearly a step change of performance and the underpinning of that is the Win Strategy. But what really gives us a lot of confidence is that we're still in early days in the Win Strategy performance. And I would just highlight a few opportunities there. The first is our high-performance team process which is all about creating an ownership culture of the company. As you have owners evolve and continue to care more and drive more engagement you're going to see performance improve with it. Simplification initiatives are still early days. The innovation pipeline is growing. And the combination of lean and kaizen opportunities and our supply chain strategies are going to continue to yield margin expansion as we go forward. We are stronger as a company now than we've ever been. Our cost structure is in the best shape that it's been. And we're well-positioned to manage any kind of market dynamics and softening. The combination of our earnings growth cash flow, our strong balance sheet, gives us a number of capital deployment opportunities as we continue to drive increased shareholder value. We continue to have confidence in our ability to reach the financial targets in FY 2023 – 2020-2023 that we communicated in last year's Investor Day. And just as a reminder what those are, to grow organically 100 basis points faster than the market this will be over the cycle, segment operating margins of 19%, EBITDA margins of 20%, free cash flow conversion greater than 100%, and EPS CAGR over this time period of 10% plus. In sum, we anticipate another record year for FY 2019 and we're making good progress towards our new five-year targets. And with that, I'll hand it back to Cathy for a more detailed review on the quarter.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to slide number 6 and I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.51 which is a 17% increase compared to $2.15 for the same quarter a year ago. The differences between the as-reported results and the adjusted results are as follows. Fiscal year 2019 second quarter operating income adjustments include business realignment expenses of $0.01 and CLARCOR cost to achieve of $0.03. This compares to prior-year adjustments of $0.07 for business realignment expenses and $0.07 for CLARCOR costs to achieve. In fiscal year 2018, we also adjusted other expense to exclude a net gain of $0.05 from the sale of assets and the write-down of an investment. Income tax expense in the current year second quarter has been adjusted by $0.11 for a tax expense related to U.S. Tax Reform. This updates the initial net one-time tax reform adjustment of $1.65 adjusted for in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018. On slide number 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.15 for the second quarter of fiscal 2018 to $2.51 for the second quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.41 attributable to earnings on meaningful organic growth, synergy savings from acquisitions, and increased margins as a result of Win Strategy initiatives. Lower average shares resulted in an increase of $0.07 and lower interest expense contributed $0.03. Adjusted earnings per share was reduced by $0.06 due to higher income tax expense in fiscal year 2019 driven by higher earnings. And higher year-over-year corporate G&A expense primarily as a result of losses in market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation resulted in a $0.09 per share reduction. Moving to slide 8, you'll find total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter. Total company organic sales in the second quarter increased year-over-year by 5.7%. There was a 0.5% negative impact to sales in the quarter from prior year divestiture, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 2.2%. Total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 16.6% versus 14.9% for the same quarter last year. This 170 basis point improvement reflects the benefits of higher volume, productivity improvements and the benefits of synergies from acquisitions combined with the positive impact from our Win Strategy initiative. Moving to slide number 9, I'll discuss the business segments starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the second quarter, North American organic sales increased by 5% as compared to the same quarter last year. Our prior year divestiture accounted for a 0.4% loss of sales, while currency also negatively impacted the quarter by 0.3%. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 16% of sales versus 15.1% in the prior year. This 90 basis point improvement for North America reflects the hard work dedicated to productivity improvements as well as the benefits from additional volume, synergies from acquisitions and the impact of our Win Strategy initiatives. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 10. Organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 3.6%. Negative impact from a prior year divestiture accounted for 0.8% of sales, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 5.3%. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.7% of sales versus 14.2% in the prior year, reflecting increased volume, improved operating cost efficiencies from realignment initiatives and the benefits of the Win Strategy. I'll now move to slide number 11 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased an impressive 12.2% for the second quarter due to strength in the military and commercial OEM businesses as well as the aftermarket businesses. Operating margin for the second quarter was 19.7% of sales versus 16.0% in the prior year reflecting the benefits of higher volume and cost efficiencies, the impact of a favorable sales mix, the deferral of some development costs and good progress on the Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to slide 12, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and a reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average while the Aerospace Systems segment reports on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders increased by 1% as of the quarter end. This year-over-year growth is made up of flat order growth from Diversified Industrial North America, a decline of 2% from Diversified Industrial International orders and a 10% growth from Aerospace Systems orders. On slide 13, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $541 million. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the first quarter, cash flow from operations was $741 million or 10.7% of sales. This compares to 6.8% of sales for the same period last year. The significant capital allocations year-to-date have been $200 million for the payment of shareholder dividends; $550 million for share repurchases of common shares made up of $100 million through our 10b5-1 plan and $450 million of discretionary share repurchases completed in the second quarter; and $200 million for the previously mentioned discretionary pension contribution. The revised full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2019 is outlined on Slide number 14. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. We have adjusted our sales outlook for the second half to reflect current order trends and current currency rates. Total sales increases for the year are now expected to be in the range of minus 0.4% to plus 2.0% as compared to the prior year. Anticipated organic growth for the full year is forecasted in the range of 2% to 4%, or 3% at the midpoint. The prior year divestiture, negatively impact sales by 0.4% and currency is expected to have a negative 1.9% impact on sales for the year. This calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended December 31 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal 2019. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.7% and 17.2%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 17.0% and 17.4%. The full year effective tax rate is projected to be 23%. This anticipates a tax expense run rate of 24% for the third and fourth quarters. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is now $11.04 to $11.54 or $11.29 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis the guidance range is now $11.35 to $11.85 or $11.60 at the midpoint. This updated guidance on an adjusted basis, excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $19 million or $0.11 per share for the full year fiscal 2019 with the associated savings projected to be $10 million. The guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $15 million or $0.09 per share of CLARCOR costs to achieve expenses. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to ramp to a run rate of $125 million by the end of fiscal 2019 which represents an incremental $75 million of run rate savings as we exit fiscal 2019. We remain on-track to realize the forecasted $160 million run rate synergy savings and $100 million revenue synergies by fiscal year 2020. And finally, guidance on an adjusted basis also excludes $0.11 per share for the second quarter tax expense related to U.S. Tax Reform. Savings from business realignment and CLARCOR costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as-reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2019 guidance at the midpoint are; sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half; adjusted segment operating income is divided 47% first half, 53% second half; adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 46%, 54%. Third quarter fiscal 2019 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.99 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $0.05 of projected business realignment expenses and $0.01 of projected CLARCOR costs to achieve. On slide 15 you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year 2019 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $11.60 at the midpoint, compared to the prior guidance of $11.40 per share. Increases include $0.11 from stronger segment operating income, $0.03 from lower full year tax expense, and $0.20 from reduced average shares. Offsetting these increases is an $0.11 per share decrease from higher corporate G&A than previously forecasted due to market adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation and higher other expense attributed to mark-to-market accounting of equity investments in the second quarter as well as $0.03 from higher interest expense for the year. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2019. On slide 16 you'll find the components of our updated full year increased guidance relative to the outperformance in the second quarter versus our initial guidance going into the quarter. Actual second quarter earnings per share on an adjusted basis were $0.12 stronger than previously guided due to excellent operating performance, partially offset by higher corporate G&A and other expense attributable to the market investment losses previously mentioned. For the balance of the year, we expect net incremental per share benefits of $0.08. Lower tax expense will provide $0.03 and $0.16 will occur due to the lower average shares. Offsetting these favorable items will be the impact that moderating growth will have on operating income in the second half of $0.10 per share as well as an expected net $0.01 unfavorable impact from below the line items of corporate G&A interest and other expense. All of this equates to a net increase to adjusted earnings per share for the full year of $0.20. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I'll turn the call back to you.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. We're very pleased with our continued progress. With the execution of Win Strategy we're projecting another earnings record for fiscal 2019. I just want to conclude by saying thank you to the global team for all the hard work their dedication and I thank our shareholders for their continued confidence in us. And with that James I'll hand it over to you to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Excellent. Thank you, sir. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann Duignan:
Hi, good morning. Good morning Ann. I think maybe perhaps you could give us some color on the regions what you're seeing in the various regions and then the various end markets. We used to do the 3-12 and the 12-12 or the trends around the end markets and the regions. Perhaps we could start with that Tom.
Tom Williams:
Okay. And this is Tom. I'll start. I'm going to give you maybe an overall framework and I'll hand it to Lee with more details. Let me start with the new guide and I'm going to focus on organic guide. So, we guided now to 2% to 4% as far as our range. And I'm going to put the regions in Aerospace into that range and give you where they sit. So, on 2% to 4% Latin America would be above that range. Aerospace is above it. North America would be right at the midpoint. Asia-Pacific would be at the low end of that range. And EMEA would be flat. So, that's our view on organic growth for the full year. Probably what's more important and interesting for everybody on the call is what are we seeing for the second half so our first six months of the calendar year 2019. So, our organic guide I'm going to kind of round the here is approximately a little less than 1% for the second half. And the way that splits out is North America a little bit north of 1%, international about a minus 0.5% Aerospace at 2.5%. So, now if I split out international that minus 0.5% is around Latin America plus 5% Asia-Pacific flat, and EMEA about negative 1.5%. Again these are all second half numbers from us. So maybe a little bit of thoughts from me on what's behind the second half guide. Well, let's start first with the most recent order entry and you all saw the numbers from the press release North America at 0; international minus 2; Aerospace at plus 10; Total company at 1. So, if I could step back for a second and back to where we were two years ago, we were clearly in an accelerating growth environment. That very naturally moves into a moderating growth as most business cycles do from an accelerating into a moderating growth and that's fully based on our last guide what we had projected for the second half. However if I was to give you an analogy going from moderating to really what we guided to a slower growth I'd have you visualize a metal spring -- not spring the season, but a spring - a metal spring. And I think that opinion and still, I think very capable of a moderate our organic growth. And it's still I think very capable of moderate growth environment. I don't think the dynamics have changed. However, there's been some weights put on top of the spring and these weights would be the macroeconomic and geopolitical issues that we've all been talking about and reading about and listening to; and trade-related things, Brexit monetary policy, the oil and gas price softening and the government shutdown. I'm very optimistic we are very optimistic that those weights, those macro issues will resolve themselves, maybe not all of them but several are going to resolve themselves. And that spring our organic growth guide for the second half that is currently now in slow growth environment can spring back to a moderate growth environment. The big question is when. I don't think anybody really knows the answer to that. However, our guide assumes that those macro issues are not going to get resolved and enough time to really have much support or change to what our current second half guide is. So, that's a backdrop. I'm going to hand it over to Lee to give you more details on the markets.
Lee Banks:
Okay, Ann. What I thought I would do if you don't mind is first just some color on Aerospace. I mean we were absolutely pleased with the performance in Aerospace strong organic growth. And I just thought I'd give you some color by the segments in Aerospace. So commercial OEM for us was up 11% in Q2 and we're guiding at the midpoint for 5% for the full year. Military OEM up 24% in Q2 and a guide to 14% for the full year. Commercial MRO up 8%, a guide to 4% for the full year. And military MRO was a strong 9% in Q2 and a 3% guide for the full year. So these full year guides obviously some of this stuff is very lumpy and then there's tougher comps but that's our latest thinking right now. So we're guiding to 5.7% organic growth at the midpoint for Aerospace. On the industrial side of the business what we did is just kind of look at this we took all our markets in Q2 how we saw them. And this is pretty consistent with Tom's comments how we're projecting them going forward. But we kind of put these markets in three buckets
Ann Duignan:
You did indeed. And I don't want to hog the call, but I just – could I just clarify without putting words in your mouth would North America distribution have been the one kind of that inflected the most during the quarter? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Lee Banks:
It definitely pulled back North America. I would not say overall. I would say, those areas a little bit of re-bouncing across the channel and those areas are around land-based oil and gas pullback. But that's just off the hip, right? I don't think so. I don't think the most would be a wrong way to characterize it.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I'll leave it there. I appreciate the color.
Lee Banks:
Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Andy Casey:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Andy.
Andy Casey:
I'm wondering, how to view the Industrial International guidance for the second half. You're guiding the top line down a little bit. The margins are pretty resilient. And I'm just wondering is the resilience more a function of the structural cost work that you've done for that region? Is it mainly comps or is it something else?
Tom Williams:
Andy, it's Tom. I think what you're seeing is a combination of things and you pointed to one of them. The restructuring that we've done – and I would characterize this for really all the regions. Obviously international we did probably more over the last several years than we had in North America. But it's a combination of that prior period restructuring so that fixed cost's in a lot better position than we've been. The new Win Strategy changes and that focus on simplification and the costs SG&A costs have come down. Our variable costs have gotten better. The productivity in the plants, we saw continued to improve through the quarter. And our – we've continued to feel that they'll improve in the second half, which is why we – our margins are so resilient, with a little bit of softness there. And we've done a really nice job on supply chain and sort of just optimizing all the dynamics that are going on from a material inflation freight et cetera. So I think the team has done a great job of executing, but there's still a lot more opportunities there which is why we've guided to pretty good margins in the second half even with some softness in the top line.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. And then I think you said it, but if – investors seem to be worried about a downturn across several markets. I'm just wondering, what you would expect from Parker in terms of return performance, if the markets actually did go into a downturn. Are we looking at not only raised – increased margin performance that you've already demonstrated with this record in the second quarter, but also decreased return sensitivity to the changes and end market demand swings?
Tom Williams:
Well, obviously Andy, it depends on the severity of a market swing. But I would tell you we have this continuous view on being cost leaders. Everything we're doing around the Win Strategy the execution there is on making us the most nimble and agile business that we possibly can be. And I think the best evidence of that is just plot our margins over the last four years what's happened. You've seen significant margin improvement. And of course in the second half, we're guiding to a little less sales and margins equal to or better than what we originally said in the last guide. Now, typically over a cycle, we would expect sales would drop. That same 30% decremental I think is still a good rule of thumb. But what we've demonstrated over the last several cycles go back to 2002, I'm going to take a history lesson for those who haven't tracked the company for a long time, 2002 we had 60% drop in earnings. 2008 and 2009 it was a 40% drop. The 2015 to 2016 industrial recession contraction was a 20% drop. And so we continue to get better. Our whole goal is to raise the floor raise the ceiling of margin performance. And while we're very proud of what we did in Q2 and very proud of and we're guiding for the first time in the history of the company to a 17% operating margin we clearly, clearly have a lot more opportunity in the future. So I'm not worried at all about any kind of softness. We've been practicing for this every day. We're ready for it.
Andy Casey:
Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Andy.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning. Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Just like to dig a little bit further into the margin in North America. I think incrementals are in the mid to upper 30s in the second quarter North America versus kind of that 10 to 20 that you'd guided to for the first half, so clearly better there. And I think this is probably around the productivity improvement post-closing the CLARCOR and Parker facilities. Maybe Tom you could -- Tom or Lee you could talk a bit about the improvement in productivity there, if those businesses are now running at the levels that you expect them to run, if there's further improvement we're going to see in the third quarter? Just any color you can give us around that.
Tom Williams:
Yes, Nathan. This is Tom. I would say first, you have a good ground-rooted improvement in productivity regardless of the plants that were involved in plant closures because you got all the other plants that are improving as well, Win Strategy execution and all the things that I talked about earlier in sort of my opening comments. So you got a good ground-based improvement in productivity specifically around the plants that -- and all the lines that we moved, we saw steady progress and productivity but we have more to do. So we were pleased as you pointed out 37% more or less in North America for the quarter and beat what we had guided to what we communicated. But we expect that to continue to get better and we're guiding to an even stronger second half. So our belief that we told you last quarter about the second half being stronger than what we feel the first half would be that still holds true. We may have gotten a little better faster. But what we've seen is there's still lots of opportunities whatnot yet at the complete rates that we need to be, so I think that bodes well to what our second half is going to be. And really I think signals -- not talking about FY 2020 yet, that signals that we have momentum in FY 2020 as well.
Nathan Jones:
And maybe then just on the order -- the flat orders in North America in the quarter. Lee talked about some maybe channel rebalancing on the distribution side. Have you seen that abate into the third quarter here? Are you seeing any channel rebalancing or any OEM channel rebalancing there inventory there maybe with your OEMs anticipating a little slower growth, they tend to maybe take some inventory off the shelves? Or what your expectations are in both channels for inventory over say the next six months?
Lee Banks:
Yes. Nathan, it's really hard for me to have a gauge through the OEM channel. But my feeling through the distribution channel is the rebalancing that took place is by and large done. I think there's real pull on demand that's taking place. And so, I don't feel like there's more pullback coming, given current market conditions right now.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Thanks very much. I will pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is now open.
Julian Mitchell:
Hi good morning. Maybe just following up in the industrial businesses on the cadence of the order changes that you saw in the last few months, was it in general when you look globally a big step down, very late in fiscal Q2? Or was it a steady deceleration since sort of early October? And related to that perhaps, how should we think about the organic growth guide in the current quarter versus the fourth fiscal quarter? Is there any particular cadence on the industrial side that you would emphasize?
Tom Williams:
Julian this is Tom. Let me -- I'll start first with the order trends and I'll maybe take region by region. So North America, pretty well declined equally -- equal parts through the quarter and really mirrored the -- if you'll go back to the prior year, the increases we had, so kind of a mirror image there. I would say EMEA and Latin America was -- I'd say all the regions were pretty sequentially equal drops. EMEA and Latin America exited flat to prior, so remember our international was minus 2. Composition was EMEA and Latin America exiting flat and Asia Pacific exiting slightly negative on that end. As far as the first half, second half, in the third quarter and Q4 on organic, we have a little bit better organic in Q3 and that's mainly because of comps with Aerospace in Q4. We had a huge Q4 in Aerospace with some big MRO activity that is unlikely to repeat. And so that's probably what's weighting it down. But I would say in general how I articulated what we articulated as far as organic growth is not really too much different between Q3 and Q4.
Julian Mitchell:
And then my second question would be around maybe switching to the balance sheet. You talked about the buyback step-up the $500 million or so in Q2. Does the demand slowdown at all, affect your appetite to undertake acquisitions? And therefore buybacks are a more logical use of cash? Or are you still equally interested in M&A as you look out over the rest of this year?
Tom Williams:
Julian, maybe to start with, I'd like to cover the capital deployment from a comprehensive standpoint. So first is, dividends. We're going to keep that consecutive increase record. And we like to target 30% to 35% of net income on a rolling 5-year average. And our dividends are going to grow because we're going to grow net income over this time period. CapEx as you -- my opening comments about one of the things that make us unique, we're pretty efficient on CapEx. We'll use CapEx to fund organic growth and strategic productivity. So now to the heart of your question, is share purchase versus strategic acquisitions. And we like both. We will do what the best use of this for our shareholders for the long run. I think in general, acquisitions generate incremental cash, generate incremental EBITDA that would be the preference, provided that they meet our stringent and our disciplined view of acquisitions. Over the cycle, it's important as far as where we are but what's more important is it's a strategic fit will it hit our return criteria's. We would model where we were organically into the DCF so we factor that in. So I would just say the M&A pipeline is active. We're going to continue to look at properties really along two big things
Julian Mitchell:
Great. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is now open.
Andrew Obin:
Good morning. I guess, it’s still morning. How are you guys?
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Andrew.
Andrew Burris:
Just a question I guess for Tom and Lee. I remember maybe last year you guys were sort of stressing the fact that we're still in very early innings of the industrial cycle. And I looked at your growth and you guys have been spot on I get it. But it appear, you can just provide a sort of 5%, 6% organic growth for hydraulics for 2019; 8%. 9% for Aerospace market is guiding for a 7% for 2019. So I'm just wondering what has happened to the cycle and why are you so different from other short-cycle industrials that I'm looking at 2019. And have you changed your view about the long run? Sorry for a long-winded question but just the difference in guidance is so stark between you and everybody else. Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Andrew, it's Tom. I can't comment about everybody else. I'll just comment about what we see. We can -- if I take Aerospace, we continue to see Aerospace very strong. And we had robust orders. You saw order entry there we had a robust first half. Our second half will still be very strong sequentially. It's a 7% growth a sequentially. We had some pretty tough comparables in the second half, which makes it now look quite as strong, but I'd put up our Aerospace numbers against anybody in that space. On the industrial side, we do tend to probably see things maybe a tad quicker than other people but we're giving you what we see right now and that's all we can do. The order entry in the prior quarter given the fact that our backlog is four to six weeks typically in the industrial piece is what you're going to yield out in the next quarter. I still believe and as you've heard me talk about before that I still think this is a great industrial environment. I do think though that some of the uncertainties weighed on order demand, and I do think they'll resolve. Since our fiscal year ends June 30, I'm not sure they're going to resolve in time to influence our second half. Remember we're guiding only for our second half or our full year, which ends June 30 versus everybody else is guiding to a full year calendar 2019. So that's how I would describe it.
Andrew Burris:
No. That's very fair. And just a follow-up question. Seeing how the channel check work is picking up very, very strong pricing even though we are seeing the slowdown you guys are talking about. Is there anything different about the industry pricing strategy in this cycle? It's just -- I've been doing it for a while and pricing seems to be as sticky as I've ever seen. Thanks a lot.
Lee Banks:
Andrew, it's Lee. As you know, I mean, we're constantly measuring our input costs using our PPI metric and using our -- and seeing what's happening with inflation. There's certainly been a lot of inflation in this cycle some driven just by pure commodity pricing, some driven the extra things like tariffs, et cetera. So I think what you're seeing is just the ability to probably cover some of those input costs that are maybe a little different than past cycles.
Andrew Burris:
Right. But what's driving this fundamental ability? That's a big deal.
Lee Banks:
You mean for it to stick? Andrew, I think I lost you there. But I would just finish by saying that we were in a very rapid growth environment. I think supplier was paramount for everybody. And I think there's just strong brand recognition with Parker's brand throughout the channel. So not sure I get…
Andrew Burris:
You guys certainly doing a great job in the channel. I'll follow-up offline. Thanks a lot.
Lee Banks:
Okay. Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks, Andrew.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. I guess first question on Aerospace margins have been very strong in particular over the past three quarters. I know you're guiding for margins to deteriorate in the back half. But can you talk about mix or whether there's upside to Aerospace margins over the next couple of years and what would be driving that, I guess is my first question. And then my second question just based on sort of what you're seeing uncertainty in the macro environment or in some of the slowdown in the markets you talked about, are you considering potentially additional restructuring actions at all and how we should sort of think about that? Or what actions you're taking to prepare if there is a downturn. Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Jamie, this is Cathy. I'll start on the Aerospace margin. We're very pleased with the margins that they achieved in the quarter and we do see a lot of improvement that they've worked hard at gaining in their infrastructure and their cost control. If you notice we did raise the guidance for their margins for the year a fair amount. In the second half, you'll see maybe not as high as you would have expected and that's going to be driven by higher development costs in the second half than what we experienced in the first half. We're anticipating development costs for the year to finish somewhere between five in three quarters of their sales in a quarter. They did 5.5% in the first half and we're expecting closer to 6.5% in the second half just because of the timing of some of those development activities.
Tom Williams:
And then Jamie, this is Tom. I'll take the market question there. Again, I would just go back to we're constantly preparing for any softness by just having the best cost structure we possibly can, but we will make market adjustments. We're not seeing anything, yet that would warrant a change in our restructuring profile. We have a lot of levers you can pull that don't trigger that like reduction of temporary workforce, overtime reduction those type of things, recognizing that we have probably around 8% of our workforce total company that is temporary people. So, there's a number of levers we can move that won't trigger a restructuring change.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso:
Hi, Good morning. Obviously, an important time for the stock and the company here in the sense of trying to show the evolution how does Parker handle a slowdown differently than in the past. And I mean this quarter obviously we're able to show weaker orders weaker organics still able to raise the guide do a good job in the quarter. But just can you help frame a little bit thinking about really not that far away from six months from now fiscal 2020 Guide; we can all make our topline assumptions. But can you help us with -- when you look at the order patterns what you're seeing right now as you know North America -- if you look at the comparisons and you double stack them, right, the actual North American comp gets a little harder and then it begins to ease. The international order comps start to ease from here. Can you help us level set again I know you're not going to give us fiscal 2020 guide right now but should we be thinking the order rates in North America and International are both negative in the current calendar 1Q? And then I'd like to follow up with a question on kind of cost side items or below the line items as well to think about puts and takes '20 versus 2019.
Tom Williams:
David, it’s Tom. As you might expect I won't get into FY 2020. But I think orders are going to be reflective of what I imagine that organic guide that I gave you for the second half meaning that a little less than 1% total company; North America up plus 1; International about minus 0.5; and Aerospace with 2.5. So I think orders will mimic that. Obviously Aerospace orders are longer cycle lumpier so they may not look exactly like that. But I think the industrial pieces will mirror that organic guide that I gave you. And as far as below the line why don't you follow-up with that question.
David Raso:
Sure. And just to be clear on your answer so it doesn't sound like you see the North American orders -- I'm not going to try to hold you to 100 200 bps here, but it doesn't sound like you see North American orders going maybe negative at all let alone any materiality. And then international orders it sounds like you also don't think that would get any worse from here. Is that a fair characterization of your answer? Just seeing what you're saying out there and knowing the comps.
Tom Williams:
Yes. Again I would frac it with a little bit of a range. It's really hard to pinpoint this stuff. But I mean the numbers I gave you is our best estimate at this point based on the current order entry.
David Raso:
And then on the year-over-year benefits. I know you're not going to quantify them. Just if you can help us a little bit. You're obviously going to have the share count help. The full year benefit of the plant closures and some of the approved -- improved efficiencies and I would suspect and we can debate the cost structure materials. But you would think that for price cost maybe it even gets better as we look into the moment you have to give a guide on 2020? Can you help us a little bit maybe even prioritize for us is the biggest benefit, the plant closure efficiencies having that for a full year? Obviously, repo versus M&A the next six months we can debate it, but it sounds like you have a nice share count health. Can you just kind of frame the puts and takes for us on those cost items and below the line items? And obviously, any other help you have on tax or anything would be great, just things that you see as of today.
Catherine Suever:
David, I'll start it out here. We're forecasting some of the realignment activities that we're doing this year that we'll see $10 million of savings in the year and then that'll carry through. In terms of the integration and the synergy savings we're seeing with continuing to work on integrating CLARCOR, we've increased the run rate to up to $125 million through this -- the end of this year and that's a $75 million incremental. And we still then think that by the end of fiscal 2020 we'll be up to $160 million. So yes, we'll continue to see savings from those activities. In terms of price cost, we don't really talk about in that detail. Lee, you want to touch on that?
Lee Banks:
No, I would just say on price cost David the way we track this in our -- our goal is just to be margin-neutral as we go through these.
Catherine Suever:
And in terms of tax expense, we are forecasting an effective rate of 23% this year. I would expect that to be our continuing long-term rate for the next year or two unless things change significantly.
Thomas Williams:
David, to a higher point here. I think what you're getting at is we got more room to go. We're going to end up 2017. We're on a mission to get to 2019. We're not stopping there. That's just a test. We're just going to stop for a minute and congratulate ourselves and keep moving. But we are very pleased with what we're seeing and I won't get into FY 2020 because we haven't done that, but we're going to continue to grow earnings and grow margins.
David Raso:
Appreciate that. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, David. I think we have time for one more question. Operator Excellent. Our final question will come from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Thank you Noel.
Joel Tiss:
All right. Thank you. Just wondering just two things -- I wonder again just more of a characterization, but are the pieces largely in place for the 19% longer-term operating margins? Or are there more levers that have to be pulled? Or it just depends on what the volume profile looks like? And just help us get a sense of where you are there.
Tom Williams:
Well it would be -- all the things -- Joel this is Tom. All the things that we've had in the Win Strategy all along in that infamous walk we've got that shows you where we were in FY 2018 at the IR Day to the 19%. And if I would just tell you the major ingredients without going through the numbers the CLARCOR synergy's a big part of it. All simplification program, which we didn't talk about is still early days. The whole 80-20 look at our revenue complexity is a big deal. We're down to 80 visions now 122 to 80 divisions. So 80 8-0 we continue to work that. But I would tell you that the revenue complexity side is a bigger deal. Productivity, we have a lot of things we're doing on kaizen. We're combining lean and kaizen and some strategic CapEx investments we're making around automation those will continue to yield. We've done a great job in supply chain and we've been able to optimize the supply chain in a much more efficient way than I think maybe historically which we're pretty pleased with that. And we'll continue to leverage a fair amount of our spend that I think has not had as much visibility all indirect cost side of things. And then, we're going to continue to have margin enhancements around change in the mix and distribution the innovation pipeline those type of things. So I think you all know us well enough. We wouldn't put out a number. Even though it was five years ago we don't think we had a roadmap to get there. So we believe in our roadmap. But I would just again emphasize that, it's not the final destination. And we got to 17% early. I'm not saying we'll get to 19% early, but our confidence is there.
Joel Tiss:
And then just the last one in Aerospace. Is there any unusual mix that could put a little pressure on the margin progression over the next say 12 to 18 months?
Cathy Suever:
Yes, good question Joel. We will see an increased volume of OEM activity of entry into service as some of the newer platforms are now ramping up, and that does start out at very low margins. So that will have some pressure on our Aerospace margins. But we are confident. I mean we're forecasting a midpoint margin for this year of 19%, 19.1. And we -- the cost efficiencies that they've been working hard on I think will help balance against that mix pressure that they're going to feel in the next few years.
Joel Tiss:
Okay. Thank you so much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Joel. All right, this concludes our Q&A session and our earnings call for today. Thank you everyone for joining us. Robin will be available to take your calls, should you have further questions. Thanks everybody. Have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen that does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may all disconnect.
Executives:
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.
Analysts:
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc. Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Neil Frohnapple - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 2019 Parker Hannifin earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will host a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Candace. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin's first quarter fiscal year 2019 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Williams and President and Chief Operating Officer Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the first quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's first quarter performance together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2019. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 4, as Tom will get us started with the highlights.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation and your interest in Parker. We're off to a great start. It was an excellent start to fiscal 2019. We delivered record performance across many measures. Starting with safety, as we always do, our safety performance remains our top priority. We had a 20% reduction in recordable incidents for the quarter, and we're striving to create a zero-accident environment for our people. That's the goal there. And we've gotten really strong engagement from our team members around the world on safety, and you can see the difference. With the engagement of our people, you see a big difference in the performance there. Let me start the call with some summary comments and key takeaways on how the business is doing. First, we had a number of all-time quarterly records, EPS, net income, ROS, and segment operating margins. We reached 17% operating margins for the quarter on an as-reported basis, which is really remarkable performance. It's an all-time record for us. And if you just reflect back to Investor Day in September 2015, so this is about nine months after Lee and I took our jobs. And we had a slide that we showed you that had a walk from 14.5% operating margin to 17% as our goal, and we wanted to achieve that over a 5-year period of time. So while we're all about continuous improvement, that's a nice accomplishment. It's a nice milestone to hit, and we're really proud of the team for doing it. We also in the business have experienced some very nice positive organic growth. The balance sheet has continued to get stronger, which is giving us more options and flexibility in how we want to deploy that capital going forward. The CLARCOR integration continues to track well, and we're raising our guidance for the fiscal year as a result of the Q1 performance. We've reached – those goals I talked about at the 2015 Investor Day, we reached those FY 2020 5-year goals in just three years, so two years early. And if I just remind you what those goals were, we wanted to grow 150 basis points greater than market, using global industrial production as our proxy for the market, and we've been able to do that. The 17% segment operating margin, hit that. EPS of an 8% or higher growth CAGR, we've been doing that, and free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%. So it's some nice targets, but what's best about our company and what's really exciting going forward is that we have a ton of opportunity to improve going forward, and that's going to bode well for our shareholders and our people. And as a result, we've set new 5-year targets, the FY 2023 targets, which we shared with you recently at the March Investor Day. So my thanks to everybody and all the Parker team members around the world for the great progress that we've seen and really what's going to be a great future as we look forward. So let's go back to the quarter. It was a great quarter, nice profitability improvement. On the top line, sales growth was 3%. It was impacted by currency translation and the Facet divestiture. But underlying that, the organic growth was at 6%, which was in line with our expectations. EPS was an all-time quarterly record, which increased 33% from our Q1 record one year ago. We saw positive order rates continue against some tough comps. We had segment operating margins, which I mentioned earlier at an all-time 17% as reported, but we also had adjusted operating margin at 17.2%. EBITDA came in 155 basis points up to 17.7% reported or 18.0% adjusted. We were able to fund $200 million of discretionary pension contribution, which created a nice favorable tax consequence for us. This was a very timely opportunity for us to take advantage of that investment. And we're on track to deliver greater than 100% free cash flow conversion and operating cash flow exceeding 10% of sales when you exclude that discretionary pension contribution. So looking forward, our end markets are largely positive. We'll talk more about that during the Q&A. And we're projecting a healthy organic growth outlook. I want to make a couple comments about Aerospace. The business is performing extremely well. What you're really seeing is you're seeing prior-year investments paying off. So we have a long-cycle business with a very attractive future. I wanted to thank the Aerospace team for a really great quarter and really last year as well. The current performance is really reflective of the hard work we've done on R&D, the Win Strategy, the entry-into-service work that we've been doing, and we've got a business that's long-cycle at a high level, but the good thing is that it's got lots of opportunities, just like the Industrial portion of the company, to continue to improve. So as I mentioned earlier, the balance sheet is stronger, creating more alternatives when we think about what our capital deployment priorities are. And the lineup is very consistent with what you've heard me talk about in the past. We're going to continue our dividend increases. We're not going to break the continuous increase record on dividends paid. We're going to continue to invest for organic growth and productivity, which is the most efficient value creator we can do for our shareholders. We always are evaluating strategic acquisitions. And we're looking at share repurchases. We're looking at obviously continuing our 10b5-1 program, but we're going to look at evaluating opportunistic discretionary share repurchases concurrently. Regarding CLARCOR, the integration is going well, and my thanks to the team for all the heavy lifting that they've been doing. A couple noteworthy items, all the production lines have been moved, and all the plants that we wanted to close are now closed. I'm going to say that last one again. All the plants we wanted to close are now closed. That is a huge milestone for us. That's an important turning point when we talk about improving the margins for North America. We're working on finishing the qualifications and the production ramp-up of those recent Q1 moves. That will be happening in Q2, and we feel very good about the synergies. They're on track, and we feel good about the second half for the company and the second half in particular for North America as a result of those actions. So on the outlook, we've increased EPS guidance by $0.30 at the midpoint to $11.20 as reported or $11.40 adjusted. This reflects our strong first quarter, the margin expansion that we've demonstrated, and our outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year. Organic growth is in the 2.5% to 5.3% range, which is consistent with what we saw in the August forecast. And the new guide reflects the effects of currency updated now versus what we felt in August, and a full-year effective tax rate of 23%. So looking at the future. We're going to continue to drive the new Win Strategy. And just as a reminder, it's made up of four major segments, four major goals, the first being engage people. And it's all about creating an ownership culture, and we're going to focus on our high-performance team process, which is a process where we get our people engaged around four key metrics, safety, quality, cost, and delivery, which is going to drive an ownership mindset and an intimacy and inspiration and passion around hitting those performance targets in those areas, which will drive better performance. Second is superior customer experience, and the keyword here is experience. We're going to focus on improving that likely to recommend score, which is our feedback we get directly from our customers and distributors. Focused on growth is the third area, and we've been fortunate to grow faster than the market, and using industrial production as a proxy for the market, and we've exceeded that the last seven quarters straight. And the Win Strategy, and this is really our need for profitable growth, like innovation, distribution growth, and share gain have really seen a lot of good traction there. Lastly, financial performance because of the progress we have made and we're ahead of the pace that we had expected, we've identified new financial targets for FY 2023. And those are, again
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to slide number 5. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $2.84 compared to $2.24 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of 27%. First quarter fiscal year 2019 earnings per share have been adjusted by a total of $0.05, including business realignment expenses of $0.01 and CLARCOR costs to achieve of $0.04. Prior-year first quarter earnings per share had been adjusted by $0.14. On slide number 6, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.24 for the first quarter of fiscal year 2018 to $2.84 for the first quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.34, attributable to earnings on meaningful organic growth, income and synergy savings from acquisitions, and increased margins as a result of Win Strategy initiatives. Lower income tax expense equated to a year-over-year increase of $0.20. Lower interest expense resulted in an increase of $0.05, while lower other expense and share count each contributed $0.03. Adjusted per-share income was reduced by $0.05 due to higher corporate G&A, primarily as a result of losses in market-adjusted investments tied to deferred compensation compared to gains in those investments last year. Moving to slide number 7, you'll find total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Total company organic sales in the first quarter have increased year over year by 5.7%. There was a 0.6% negative impact to sales in the quarter from a prior-year divestiture, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 1.7%. Total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.2% versus 16.0% for the same quarter last year. This 120 basis point improvement reflects the benefits of higher volume, operating cost improvements, and a favorable market mix, combined with the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to slide number 8, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales increased by 6.2% as compared to the same quarter last year. A prior-year divestiture accounted for a 0.5% loss of sales, while currency also negatively impacted the quarter by 0.3%. Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.6% of sales versus 16.7% in the prior year. This margin performance was on target to our forecast now that the final production lines have been moved. We still anticipate stronger margins in the second half of this year as productivity will continue to improve. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 9. Organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 4.6%. Negative impact from a prior-year divestiture accounted for 0.9% of sales, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 4.1%. Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 17.0% of sales versus 15.7% in the prior year, reflecting improved operating cost efficiencies and the benefits of the Win Strategy. I'll now move to slide number 10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 6.3% for the first quarter as a result of strength within OEM and aftermarket in both commercial and military markets. Operating margin for the first quarter was 19.5% of sales versus 14.7% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of a favorable sales mix, the timing of development costs during the quarter, and good progress on Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to slide number 11, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year over year excluding acquisitions, divestitures, and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a 3-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders continue to be strong, growing at 5% for the quarter end. This year-over-year growth is made up of 8% from Diversified Industrial North American orders, 3% from Diversified Industrial International orders, and 3% from Aerospace Systems orders. On slide number 12, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $159 million. When adjusted for a $200 million discretionary pension contribution made during the quarter, cash flow from operations was 10.3% of sales. This compares to 7.1% of sales for the same period last year. The significant capital allocations year-to-date have been
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Cathy. So we're very pleased with the start of the year. The combination of our sales growth, lower cost structure, integration of CLARCOR, and execution of the Win Strategy, and we're projecting another record year in fiscal 2019. So again, just in closing, my thanks to the global team. All of our groups around the world are doing a great job and are exceeding our expectations, and I want to thank our shareholders for their interest and their confidence in us. And with that, I'll hand it over to Candace to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question comes from Joel Tiss of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Wow, I never get first place. How is it going?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Joel.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Good morning. So I just wondered if you could give us a couple of factors that give you visibility and confidence to raise the full year, and maybe if it's appropriate for Lee to give his run around the world because we're starting to hear other companies are hinting at slowdowns in some markets, as you know, auto, China, stuff like that. So I just wondered where you guys – where is it coming from? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joel, this is Tom. So I'll start with a couple opening comments, and I'm going to hand it over to Lee to go through the markets in more detail. But I would just say one of the things that are giving us confidence is when we look at the order pattern. So orders are doing well against some very tough comparables. But if I look at North America through the quarter and including October, North America was stable at some nice levels through the entire quarter. What we liked was EMEA. If you remember, last call I made a comment about EMEA softening a little bit and moderating, but I wasn't sure whether it was the holiday period. But what we saw in September and October that EMEA strengthened and stabilized at a low single-digit level for us, which is a good thing for the Europe area. Asia-Pacific did moderate through the quarter and Latin America remained strong. So really that mixture, in particular the fact that EMEA got better through the quarter, gives us the confidence. And when we look at all the end markets, and Lee will take you through this, they really held up quite well despite some of the geopolitical issues that you read about. So I'll let Lee take you through the regions and give you a high-level view of what we see.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks Tom. So, Joel, I think just to tag on what Tom had to say, I think we were encouraged that organic growth moved in the direction that we expected from our last call. And I'll start with Aerospace, if I can, and then just walk through. But with Aerospace we were pleased with the quarter. We saw nice growth in the commercial OEM segment. It was up 6% year over year. And we're forecasting the growth for this year, which will get you to our organic midpoint of about 5% at the midpoint. And a lot of that has to do just with comps going forward. Military OEM was strong. That was up 12% in the quarter. There are a lot of factors leading into that. F-35 ramp-up production increased Department of Defense spending, so all positive for that. So that was up 12% in the first quarter, and we're forecasting full-year growth of 7% at the midpoint. Commercial MRO was good. Revenue passenger miles continue to be up. We were up 6% in the first quarter. We are forecasting 2% for the full year at the midpoint. A lot of that, again, has to do with comps as we go forward. And then lastly, the military MRO was strong, 5% in the first quarter, and again, adding onto that 4% for the full year, again comps. So it gives you an organic midpoint for the full year for Aerospace at 4.7%. On the Industrial side, just characterizing what Tom had to say, we look at North America being at the high end of that 5.3% to 2.5% growth range, Asia-Pacific and Europe at the lower end, Asia-Pacific a little bit ahead of Europe, and Latin America being above the range. So Latin America is strong but it's small, as we talked about. I think what was positive was we continue to see year-over-year order entry growth in most of our end markets. The rate of growth is colored by the region. I'll talk a little bit more about that as I go through this. But in general, all natural resource end markets continued to grow during the quarter. So this includes agriculture, construction equipment, mining, oil and gas, and mostly land-based in North America when it comes to oil and gas. Although what's positive is we continue to see increased activity in Gulf of Mexico offshore. And even in the North Sea now, there's a lot of activity and quoting taking place, so that's positive. When I look at oil and gas rigs, they continue to expand. There's just a lot of appreciable pickup in quotes and order entry activity, which is really great both at the OEM level and with our distribution partners. Distribution around the world is really strong. A lot of this has to do with our on-purpose initiatives to grow distribution, which we've talked to you about for the last three years. I'm really pleased with what's happening there. And then one telltale sign about the health of the economy is when you see an appreciable increase in CapEx requests to our distributor partners and that's still strong. So for me, that bodes well going forward. I would say the only notable end markets that we saw contraction in the quarter, which was well publicized, is around large-frame gas turbine power generation market. Microelectronics activity fell throughout the quarter. We do expect that hopefully to rebound going forward. And then like you said, everything that touches automotive is down. It's not a big deal for us but it can affect some tangential markets, and we do a lot of in-plant automotive work. And then mills and foundries are down. I think a lot of that has to do with excess capacity in Asia, mostly China, but some of it is probably tariff-related too. Not a big deal for us, but it was noticeably down. So just talking about North America, I talked about it being robust. I'm really happy with what's happening in North America. The sentiment of our distributor base continues to be very positive across the country, and our OEM activity is very strong. EMEA, as Tom mentioned, a little worried in August and September, but things started to strengthen and stabilize. And I feel good about where that is right now, and the feedback we get from our customers is positive. And then Asia, I would just say we moderated during the quarter, but we're coming off a couple years of really, really strong comps, so growth is still there. China continues to grow, some markets different than others. Road construction, specifically excavator markets, are very strong, which are big categories for us, so net positive. And I talked about automotive, that slowed during the quarter, but again, not a big deal for us. So in summary, we're encouraged by what's happening with our end markets. I'm going to echo what Tom said. I think we're presently pleased with the activity in the markets. With all the trade and tariff noise out there, things seem to continue to move along. And bottom line is we're forecasting higher organic growth this year on top of a pretty good growth year last year. I hope that helps.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Yes, awesome color. I think I took enough time, thank you so much.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Joel.
Operator:
Thank you. And the next question comes from Ann Duignan of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yes, hi. Thanks for all that great color, I'm trying to digest it here. But as a follow-up, could you give me more insight or more color on the comments you made about CapEx requests for distributors remain strong? What exactly do you mean by that?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, typically what happens with our distributor partners when they're working with customers in their region, they may get some projects that would be capital-intensive for that customer, so it would be capital appropriation. And it just tells me that companies are spending as opposed to just MRO activity at a facility.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, I got you. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then just could you give us a little bit more color on EMEA just in terms of end markets and regions, just as you walk around the different countries on that large continent or continents?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think what's positive, what's been down is a lot more quoting activity and the activity with our distribution base around oil and gas markets. So that's North Sea activity in Norway. Germany continues to be strong, and mobile construction equipment industries continue to be strong. I think automotive, which is well-publicized, is down; again, not a huge impact for us other than what I mentioned before, but that would be the noticeable thing. So despite all the noise with Italy and Brexit, things continued to grow at a very low single-digit rate.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And I think from the comments that you've made and the visibility that you have, I think what you're telling us today is that even if dollar orders stayed as is, you would still deliver year-over-year growth in orders through the remainder of the year. Is that a fair comment?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
The numbers I gave you are organic numbers with our best guide on FX impact. If there's a bigger FX impact, obviously that would lessen that organic guide number right now.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay, I got you. Okay, I'll leave it there because I think you answered most of the questions I would have asked in your first question.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Ann.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Your line is now open.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hey, guys. Good morning. We had a pool in my office if Adam was going to ask about Ag. I'm not going to ask about Ag, just a question on Aerospace and International. A), it does seem that Aerospace margins and incrementals were fantastic, and you alluded that it's a combination of the factors. But what changes in Aerospace during the year for the margins not to have this kind of strong performance? What goes away? And the second thing on International, once again, International margin is above North America, which is unusual. Once again, what changes in International over the year for this gap to go away?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay, I will start with Aerospace, and I'll let Tom take the International margins. But Q1 was a great quarter for Aerospace, and we've talked before. The company's long-term targets are 19% operating profit, and we see Aerospace going there. I think what happened in Q1 is excellent continued execution around the Win Strategy. Good mix during Q1, it was what I would call stronger legacy OEM shipments and less entry-into-service shipments. That changes going forward a little bit, and that's what we forecast. And then less R&D expense in Q1, we gave you a range of 6.25% I think to 6.75% last time. We came in at 5%, and that's just really timing, Andrew, in Q1. So that's factored a range of 6% to 6.5% for the balance of the year. So two things going on with the balance sheet why you see a midpoint guidance of 18.3% is increase in R&D expense on some things. It's come way down from where we were, but an increase in R&D expense, and we see the mix changing going forward.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
And, Andrew, it's Tom. On International, we were excited, you're right to point it out. This is a big deal to have International higher than North America. When we finish the year, we'll have North America higher than International. But when you pattern International, Q1 always ends up being the highest profitability quarter for us, so this is a normal seasonal change for us. We will have as we go through the course of the year with Asia growing at a little less growth rate than it had before and Asia carrying a higher profit margin, that does impact us a little bit for the full year. But we're still going to see a full year with some nice improvement within International margins, 70 bps higher than the previous year, and we raised it 20 bps versus the prior guide. So we're very pleased with what International is doing.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just to follow up on International, maybe we're not doing the math right, but it comes out that for International in the second half, we're going to have flat to negative core growth, and I was just wondering how to think about that. And how does pricing figure in it because we're hearing you guys are getting fairly good pricing across your regions?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Andrew, it's Tom again. So our International growth for the second half is going to be 2.5%. And so what you're seeing when you look at that is really the effect of currency. We have a second half based on what we see for currency right now of a 5% drag. Obviously, it's subject to change based on translation, but that's what you're experiencing with International.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got you. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Julian – I'm sorry, it's Andrew.
Operator:
And your next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is now open.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Hi, good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Julian.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Maybe – hi. Just firstly, a little bit more color on your comments on APAC. I think you said China still growing, but the region moderated in the first quarter, and it sounds like you're saying that it will continue to moderate in your assumption over the rest of the year. So maybe talk about how much of that is China-specific versus other parts of the region and how broad of a slowdown in China are you seeing right now?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, Julian, this is Lee. So China did moderate, there's no doubt about it, but we're still seeing growth across the region and in China. I think what everybody has to remember, we've just come off some incredible great growth comps in China. So we're still seeing growth, but at the low end of that range that we gave you. What's noticeable is still strength in what I would call natural resource end markets there and construction equipment markets. We do forecast some infrastructure spend going forward for the year. It's already starting to ramp up, so there's a little bit of stimulus happening from the Chinese government. I think what's also positive is we're seeing excellent growth throughout the region in Australia, Japan, and India. Those are all noticeable growth areas for us. So you put all that together, and that's why we came up with the growth in that low single-digit rate.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Thank you. And then my second question just around the North America margins, you obviously had some issues affecting the margin last year. You came in squarely in the middle of your incremental margin guide for the first half in Q1. Maybe just update us how comfortable you feel with the incremental margins for the balance of the year and how the productivity effort is progressing and the duplicate cost-out?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Julian, it's Tom. You're right, we had forecasted at 10% to 20% for the first half, came in at 16% MROS for Q1. I mentioned in my opening comments, a very important milestone is that we've closed all those plants that we want to close. Remember, part of the issue we've had the last several quarters is we were running duplicate plants due to demand and productivity levels, and so that's a huge milestone. And all the lines that we wanted to move, they got moved as well. Now there's a number of them that got moved during Q1. And when you move a production line, you go through a requalification with the customer, and there's a production ramp-up curve that you go through, so that will be happening in Q2. But we feel very good about where we are for the second half. So our first half MROS, we're now looking at a 15% to 20% MROS, and the second half still, as we had articulated last quarter, at a 40% to 50% MROS. The lines that have moved prior to Q1 moves are all moving in the right direction. Productivity levels are increasing. So we feel very good about that. I think the fact that North American margins were basically the same as prior period, and you compare what we did in the prior periods as far as plant closures, which was very minimal compared to what would be going on now, the underlying efforts in North America are getting better. You can see it. There's no way you could have held North America margins flat with the amount of plant closure work and production line work that has been going on here without some good underlying productivity on everything else that's working. And I think the other part is the International margins and Aerospace margins are indicative of all the Win Strategy initiatives that are going on. Those margins moved, but they moved demonstrably for several reasons that Lee had touched on with Aerospace, but because the Win Strategy is working. So I feel very good about the margin expansion. Of course, we forecasted that in the guide going forward. I know North America has been an important question for shareholders and analysts. And I would just tell you we've reached an important turning point, and we feel good about the future there.
Julian Mitchell - Barclays Capital, Inc.:
Great, thank you for the detail.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Julian.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
And, Tom, congratulations on getting this plant closed. I know it's been a long time coming and a pretty arduous process.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Joe.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
I guess my first question, look, it sounds like you guys feel really good about your end market backdrop and what you're hearing from an order entry perspective. How do I square that with the comments that CAT made this quarter regarding inventory levels being elevated? Just maybe any color that you can provide there would be helpful.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, it's Tom. So I'll start, and if Lee wants to add anything on. I think we've seen some isolated, and I would call it not material, where customers have made a supply chain adjustments basically where the supply chain has caught up and they're rebalancing their demand signals that they're giving to their suppliers. But I think the theme for us that has been a big positive, North America stayed strong. EMEA strengthened better than we thought, and EMEA is 60% of our International. Asia moderated, but it's been off a very high. So that mixture in International made us feel good about that. Lee touched on what's driving the organic growth for us is distribution and the natural resource end markets having enough strength and power to overcome the geopolitical noise that we're hearing. And I would characterize automotive and automotive-related, like tires and machine tools, some of that is the automotive cycle, and some of it could be some of the tariff noise. It's hard for us to attribute what's to what. The mills and foundries that Lee touched on clearly is probably trade-related. Power gen, semicon, and marine, that's been something that was soft, stayed soft, so that didn't really change. So it's really that composition, Europe getting a little better than what we had thought, and the distribution and natural resources having enough strength to overcome the geopolitical noise that we've heard so far. We will obviously keep our eyes and ears open to all that and we always give you our best look every quarter, but that's the view right now.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay, that's helpful, Tom. And maybe as my follow-up question, just was there anything that occurred below the line this quarter? That number seemed to be a little bit more elevated than usual to get to your EBIT bridge. So I'm just wondering if there were any one-time items in that number.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, Joe, I'll take this one. We have some investments that help support some deferred compensation plans. And those investments incurred losses this year compared to gains last year. So you see the swing year over year, and it's purely from the market moving on those investments. That's the biggest item.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
And, Cathy, how should we be thinking about that number on a go-forward?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
We're anticipating that we'll continue to see losses compared to last year just based on what the market looks like today versus before. So we have added a little expense in the next few quarters in the other income line related to that.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
That's helpful. Thanks, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
Hi, thank you, just a quick question. The guidance appears to have the back half of the year, you talk about $0.15 a share out of the implied back half. And is that solely currency? But also, the tax rate at 24% through the rest of the year, is that an upward revision of how you thought the tax rate would be sequenced through the year? I'm just trying to figure out that $0.15 out of the back half.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, David, it's primarily the tax. And what is happening is we had some very favorable discretes in the first quarter that started the year out at a pretty low rate. But as we are finalizing our calculations related to tax reform, specifically the GILTI tax, which is very complex, and as we're pulling those together and finalizing that, we've built in a 24% rate for the rest of the year to compensate for right now what we're seeing in that. So a little bit higher rate in two, three, and four quarters that offset the very low rate we achieved in Q1. Keep in mind, we do not forecast tax credits that we do get for stock option exercises. And so our number may be conservative, but we have no way to forecast that. We are forecasting 24% run rate for the next three quarters.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
And for moving forward, just use 24% for fiscal 2020 and onwards as that base case?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think as we look at the GILTI and what we can do and as we look at all of tax reform and how we can work with it, I would use 23% on an ongoing.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
23%, okay. And quick question on North America, the margins were maintained, but it seemed like your description of your end markets, resource markets, strength in distribution, it almost seemed like there could a little upward bias to North America on the margin, just given that mix. Is the mix as you thought, or is the mix a little better and maybe price/cost is trimming that back? I'm just trying to understand the North America margins being maintained.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
David, it's Tom. North America being maintained versus our guide was related – it came in exactly how we expected. The sales forecast hit our expectations. The MROS, just for clarification, I articulated a 10% to 20% MROS range for North America, and we came in at 16%, so right in the middle. So it was right on what we were thinking, and we feel good about that. Like I mentioned, we've had a couple big turning points to get all those plants closed, all the lines moved now. We've got to get them qualified and up to production rate, but we made a big turn in North America.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
And lastly, your trailing net debt to EBITDA now is down to 1.6 – 1.7 times. Can you give us a bit of an update how you're looking at the M&A markets?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, David. As I mentioned in my opening comments, which I'll repeat, we really look at four main levers when we think about capital deployment. Obviously, I'll get to your M&A piece. So we're going to look at dividends and we're going keep that increase record, and we are going to have dividends continue to grow with the operating net income of the company. And we expect to expand them as we go forward over the next several years. We're going to invest in CapEx for organic growth, but we're going to make some productivity investments as well. This is a unique time between additive and automation robotics to really look at productivity initiatives throughout the company, so we're doing that. On the acquisitions, to get specific on your question, we are always out there working that. We've been building relationships for years and years with a lot of companies, and we'll continue to do that. Our pecking order there is one we want to continue to be the consolidator of choice. If it's in our space, the $130 billion motion control space, we'd like to be at that. We may not decide to swing, but we'd like to be aware of what's going on and have those relationships. All things being equal, we want to invest in aerospace, engineered materials, instrumentation, filtration. It has a little higher margins, a little more resilient over the cycle, so we'd like to add to the portfolio there. And then lastly would be share repurchases. The 10b5-1, we'll obviously continue it, but we have enough capacity, to your point, to look at discretionary share repurchases as well. And we're going to look at all four of those levers on a simultaneous basis and what makes the most sense to optimize value creation for our shareholders, and we'll do that in concurrence with our board and try to do that to the best of our ability. So the good thing, and you pointed it out, we have a lot of capacity. We're in a much different position on capital deployment than we were two years ago or 18 months ago, and that's a great thing for shareholders. We're going to put it to work. You've heard me talk about we want to be great generators of cash. We're going to keep doing that. And we want to be great deployers of cash. So I think you can look forward to us putting it to work.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
I was looking for with maybe some of the recent economic anxiety, whatever it may be, have the multiples being asked by sellers changed?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I would say not yet. I think it's still fairly – a lot of it depends on what technology platform you're going after. Some areas are valued higher than others. And we're going to obviously try to pay at the right value that wins the deal but also wins the deal for our shareholders and creates the right kind of returns, and we will be selective. We will pick the right properties that make the most sense. But I would still characterize the M&A environment as fairly high still from a multiples standpoint.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities:
All right, I appreciate the time. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I'd like to go back to the Aerospace margin profile here. It's up nearly 500 basis points year over year. I think Lee explained maybe a couple hundred basis points lower R&D year over year. There's a comment you made, Tom, in your prepared comments that there are prior-year investments paying off here. I would think the numbers you gave – or that Lee gave on the mix, OE grew faster than aftermarket. So it wouldn't seem to be a mix tailwind here. So I'm wondering, why the margin profile for the rest of the year is not a little bit higher than what you're pointing to given those dynamics?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Nathan, this is Tom. So the investments I was referring to was – remember, we were at 11%, 12% R&D. And that was if you go back the 10 years we've been working basically the Aerospace super-cycle, which is a unique part of the whole Aerospace business, a unique opportunity to win an extraordinary amount of business both on the airframe and engine side. And we took advantage of that, and so there was heavy R&D to do that. I would say what is driving us – what Lee was referring to, we had just a mix. Aftermarket and OE stayed about the same as we were in Q4, but we saw a higher mix of legacy, which was a temporary delivery pattern. EIS does not go out at the same margins that legacy goes out, because with legacy you've had years, in some case decades of working on the cost and price relationship. And so it's pretty much a night-and-day comparison in margin, very similar to maybe the margin gap you would see in the OE to aftermarket for Aerospace. So that was the unusual part that spiked out the first quarter. We don't expect that to repeat. That was an unusual for the quarter. But what will repeat, which is why you see Aerospace margins growing versus prior period, is the great job they're doing on the Win Strategy. They are working up the EIS learning curve and getting better at that. And the R&D is down from – we're going to be we're projecting in that 6% to 6.5% range. And for the quarter we're around 5%. So we had a little extra tailwind on R&D as a result of that – timing-wise we'll spend that money as we go forward in the next three quarters.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, got it. So there's some mix within the mix there. And then I've got a little bit more of a philosophical question for you. I think maybe this time next year or when we started fiscal 2018, Tom, you had said you thought we were going to be in a relatively good multiyear growth outlook for the industrial economy. A fair bit has gone under the bridge, shall we say, from a macro perspective over the last four or five quarters. Can you talk about what your expectation is over the next few years, maybe how it's changed over the last 12 to 18 months, if at all?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Some of you have heard me talk about this, where if you look at our company over the last 15 years, you see the global expansion, really the China pull from 2003 to 2008, the financial crisis. And then industrials, not just us, but industrials in general somewhat treaded water in that 2011 to 2015 range. Then we had the second largest contraction in our history, and everybody else felt it, the whole natural resource contraction in 2015 and 2016. So part of what I was characterizing is this feels like a different part of the cycle. It's not treading water clearly. It's not the global expansion that we saw with China. It doesn't have that same kind of pull, but it feels more broad-based. Part of what – and for legitimate reasons, a lot of concerns and questions have been around the geopolitical issues around the world between trade and interest rates, Brexit, those types of things. But what we were very happy with as we look at our end markets and our order patterns, they held up pretty well despite all that. So provided, which we can't control the geopolitical things, provided that none of those go tilt and create some really step change down, I think there's enough strength there that the industrial activity – we're only in our second year of an expansion. So everybody talks about being in the ninth year of expansion. We're in the second year of expansion. So that's why I felt this has got some room to go. Remember when we did our first IR Day, at that time it was Lee, Jon [Marten], and myself, we were hoping for a 1% to 2% world. And our range that we gave you, taking out currency, at a 2.5% to 5% world, while it feels like a big range. Even if it's at the low end of the range, with everything we've got with the Win Strategy, we can perform extremely well at that type of growth target. And that's why I think you see the enthusiasm and how we feel about where we can go is that I think we're prepared for the low end of the range if it happens. And again, I hope none of the geopolitical things impact it enough. But we'll see what happens over the next couple years. Who knows?
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, thanks for the insight.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, good morning. Most of my questions have been answered. Just two quick ones, one, the Filtration and Engineered Materials revenues were down year over year. I don't know if there was anything to read into that. And then my follow-up question, it sounds like you guys didn't see this in mining but some suppliers to the mining OE companies have talked about weakness in order trends and sales in the third quarter. I'm just wondering if you saw that in any particular geography? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Jamie, it's Tom. The technology platforms you saw, the difference would be most likely the Facet divestiture, which that was the piece of the Filtration business that we sold due to the Department of Justice settlement. So that would make the year-over-year comparison not as favorable for us this year because it was in the prior-period sales. Regarding mining, mining for us is holding up okay. It's still in that mid to upper single digits for us.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay, thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Jamie. We have time for one more question please.
Operator:
Thank you. And our final question comes from the line of Neil Frohnapple of Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
Neil Frohnapple - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi, guys. Good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning.
Neil Frohnapple - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Lee, did organic orders benefit in the quarter at all from distributors or customers maybe building inventory to get ahead of any of the price increases, or is the growth really just more indicative of underlying market demand?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
No, I would say the growth is definitely just from underlying demand. I didn't see any – there was no big event on the price increases that people would be pulling forward.
Neil Frohnapple - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay, great. And then just lastly, are you facing any notable supply chain constraints in any of the segments dealing with expedited freight, extra overtime, any other cost items that could be dragging on margins that could potentially improve from here?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Neil, it's Tom. No, we didn't really experience anything. We've been fortunate that our supply chain – we're in the region to serve the region, and the team has done a nice job of balancing out the supply chain challenges. We may have had an isolated issue or two here, but in general I would say the supply chain has done a really good job for us in the past, and we're in good shape on that.
Neil Frohnapple - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay, thank you. Congrats.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Neil.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So maybe before I turn over to Cathy to finish I just want to make one comment to all the investors and analysts that are listening. The gentleman down at the end of the table here, Ryan Reed, who all of you know as the Director of our Investor Relations is leaving us, which we're not excited about. As you all know, he's done a great job for us. We are very happy for him, for the opportunity. He's leaving the company for bigger job in Investor Relations. And I think all of you know he's done a great job, and we will obviously work very hard to fill that job, but he's got big shoes and did a nice job. So we just want to say thank you and congratulate him on his last earnings call with Parker, and we wish him all the best.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks Tom. This concludes our Q&A and earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. Robin [Davenport] and Ryan will be available throughout the day today to take your calls should you have any further questions. Thanks and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.
Analysts:
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) David Raso - Evercore ISI Group Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2018 Parker Hannifin Corp. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remains, we will host a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to hand the conference over to Ms. Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am you may begin.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Brian. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website, at phstock.com, for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and earnings presentation slides and are also posted on Parker's website, at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's fourth quarter and full fiscal year performance together with a review of our guidance for fiscal year 2019. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide 4 as Tom will get us started with the highlights for the quarter and the full year for fiscal year 2018 and then continue with a brief overview of the fiscal year 2019 outlook on slide number 5.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Extend my welcome as well. Thank you for your time and your interest in Parker. So we're really happy to report that we delivered a record Q4 and just completed Parker's best year ever in FY 2018. My thanks to everybody around the world, the Parker team members for their hard work, their dedication and the great results. This performance was driven by a combination of the Win Strategy, the CLARCOR acquisition and some really nice organic growth that we're experiencing around the world. So let me start with the fourth quarter highlights, and I'm going to start with safety as we normally do. On safety, injuries were down 21% really driven by our High-Performance team, which stands within the Engage People goal, which is the first goal to Win Strategy. And this is really all about creating an ownership culture as we expand the High-Performance team concept and that ownership concept beyond safety to quality costs and delivery, we're going to really see nice improvements in performance. And we're just starting that expansion as we speak today. I'm going to give you a list of all-time quarterly records. These are all as-reported. Cathy's going to go through the numbers and more specifics, so I'm just going to give you the categories. And we use reported numbers for records because that's what we have history on going back. So, these are all-time quarterly records in the history of the company. So, sales first of all. Segment operating margin was an all-time record, which is significant in that we are including depreciation and amortization incremental amount for CLARCOR, the restructuring the cost to achieve and still delivered an all-time record for the quarter. I think that really speaks to the underlying performance of the company. A number of fourth quarter records
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Tom. I'll now refer to slide number 6 and begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. As reported, earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 were $2.62 and adjusted earnings per share were $3.22. The $3.22 compares to $2.45 for the same quarter a year ago, a 31% increase year-over-year. Fourth quarter 2018 earnings have been adjusted to exclude business realignment expenses of $0.10, CLARCOR costs to achieve of $0.04, $0.39 related to a loss on the sale of a business and a net charge of $0.07 related to U.S. tax reform. Q4 of FY 2017 adjustments include $0.11 for business realignment expenses and $0.19 of acquisition-related expenses. On slide 7 you'll find the significant components of the walk from the prior-year adjusted earnings per share of $2.45 to the $3.22 for the fourth quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.44, attributable to earnings on meaningful organic growth, income and synergy savings from acquisitions and increased margins as a result of the Win Strategy initiatives. Lower income tax expense resulted in an increase of $0.23 while lower other expense and share count contributed $0.09 and $0.04, respectively. Adjusted earnings per share were reduced by higher corporate G&A of $0.03. On slide 8, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $8.11 for the full year 2017 to $10.42 for the full year 2018. Increases in 2018 included higher segment operating income equating to $2.28, lower income tax expense of $0.51 and a benefit of $0.01 from fewer shares outstanding. The decreases to adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2018 were higher interest expense of $0.28 associated with the CLARCOR acquisition debt issuance, higher corporate G&A expense of $0.18, primarily related to increased performance incentive compensation, and increased other expense of $0.03. Moving to slide number 9, you'll find total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter and full year. In the fourth quarter, total company organic sales increased year-over-year by 8.7%. There was a 0.4% headwind from a filtration divestiture and a 0.9% contribution to sales from currency. Total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 17.5% versus 16.8% during the same quarter last year. This overall margin improvement reflects the benefits of higher volume combined with the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives and acquisition synergies. For the full year, organic sales increased 8.4% and total segment operating margins increased 40 basis points to 16.2%. Moving to slide number 10, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North America organic sales increased by 8.8% as compared to last year and with 0.4% drag from a filtration divestiture. Operating margin for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis was 17.8% of sales versus 18.2% in the prior year. Compared to last year, the current quarter reflects the additional work involved to complete footprint consolidations while also maintaining excellent customer experience during a period of higher-than-anticipated growth. During the quarter, we made steady improvement toward completing these consolidations and we saw productivity metrics improve, but some duplicate plant costs continued. With the completion of the planned plant closures during the first half of fiscal year 2019 and continuous productivity improvements with the Win Strategy, we remain confident that we'll experience a strong second half of fiscal year 2019 for Industrial North America operating margins. For the full year, organic sales increased 10.1%, while segment operating margins were 16.6%. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 11. Organic sales for the fourth quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 10.2%. The filtration divestiture created a 0.7% drag, while currency positively impacted the quarter by 2.6%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.1% of sales versus 14% in the prior year. We continue to see progress in margins in Industrial International as a result of the Win Strategy and simplification and realignment efforts. For the full year, organic growth was 10.2% and segment operating margins increased by 130 basis points to 15.3%. I'll now move to slide number 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 5.5% for the fourth quarter, driven by strength in military OEM and commercial and military aftermarket. Operating margin for the fourth quarter was 19.9% of sales versus 18.5% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of a favorable aftermarket sales mix, successful execution of the Win Strategy and more effective development costs than the prior years. For the full year, organic growth was 1.2%. Operating margins increased by 240 basis points to 17.3% for the year. Moving to slide number 13, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders continue to be strong, growing 8% as of the quarter end. This year-over-year growth is made up of 9% from Diversified Industrial North America orders, 5% from Diversified Industrial International and 10% from Aerospace Systems orders. On slide 14, we report cash flow from operating activities. Full year cash flow from operating activities increased $298 million to $1.6 billion, or 11.2% of sales compared to 10.8% of sales for the same period last year or 12.7% last year when adjusted for a $220 million discretionary pension contribution. On slide 15 we show a history of Parker's free cash flow conversion rate. For the 17th consecutive year, Parker generated free cash flow conversion of greater than 100%, finishing 2018 at 127%. We're very proud of our team for their great management of working capital to be able to sustain this impressive cash flow during a period of higher growth. The significant allocations of capital in the fiscal year have been
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Cathy. So we are anticipating another record year in FY 2019. The Win Strategy is working well. What framed the changes to the Win Strategy when we revised it about three years ago were two overarching themes. One, we wanted to be a top-quartile performer versus our Diversified Industrial peers and we wanted to be a great generator and deployer of cash. You couple those two themes with the unique competitive advantage that we have that differentiate us versus our competitors and that's what enables us to be the number-one motion control company in the world. So these unique advantages are the following
Operator:
Thank you, sir. And our first question will come from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert W. Baird. Your line is now open.
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone. This is Joe Grabowski on for Mig this morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Joe.
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Good morning. Maybe talk about the incremental margin in North America in the fourth quarter, kind of what the puts and takes were there. How have CLARCOR inefficiencies progressed through the quarter? Maybe start there.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Joe. It's Tom. So we were really pleased with what we saw in North America. We saw continued improvement with our productivity metrics through the quarter. We track it line by line, plant by plant and we were very encouraged with the progress that we saw. We completed 80% of the plant closures in FY 2018. We have 20% that's going to carryover to FY 2019 due to the higher volume that we experienced. So this higher volume, this is a high-class problem that we have. Just to help frame what I mean by higher volume, the Q4 guide that we gave for North America was approximately 6% organic growth, and we came in at almost 9% organic growth for North America. So a 30% higher growth rate than what we had anticipated. But the productivity at the plants is improving at a pace that we're very comfortable that we're going to be able to close the plants that we've got and these carryover closures in the first half and we're going to be able to take the costs out and when you do that you're going to see a very strong second half from North America. So I was very encouraged with North America. And maybe if I could just – while I've got the stage here, just emphasize if you look at the other segments, I think it's a really good indicator of the underlying operating performance So North America really strong performance sequentially. And if you look at International and Aerospace you saw the results there, significant progress versus prior year on a quarterly basis and on an annual basis and then total your EBITDA margin improvement. So we feel very good about what we've done on the margin side and we look forward to FY 2019.
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thanks for the color. And then maybe my follow up would be along the same lines. What were the price cost dynamics in the quarter? Have you been able to keep up with raw material inflation through pricing? And how does that look as you progress through FY 2019?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, this is Lee. Thanks for the question. As we've talked before in the past, we've got a pretty disciplined process inside the company where we start at the division level and measure our input costs through our PPI Index and measure our sales increases through our SPI Index. So we stay on top of it. There's definitely inflation in the channel and we've been very active in neutralizing it. And I would say everything we've done has been really margin neutral, at a minimum, for the company.
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Thanks for taking my question.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. First, just some color on the orders in for International Industrial. They were a little weaker than what I would have expected. So if you could just start with that. And then I have a follow-up question.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, Jamie, it's Tom. So for international first you got tougher comps there. So that's probably a big contributor to it. We saw Asia and Latin America stayed at a high level and EMEA moderated a little bit through the quarter, but still had pretty good numbers for us.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And sorry. Just a follow-up question on the last question on incrementals for 2019 second half better than first half. Is there any way you could just quantify or give a little more color? I think investors were expecting low-20s in the first half, 30s in the second half. Is that the right way to still think about it? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, and I'll give you a range because MROS is a difficult metric to predict on a pinpoint basis. So our first half for North America for 2019 is going to be in the 10% to 20% MROS and the second half, as I mentioned, with the strong tailwind is going to be in the 40% to 50% MROS. Full year for the total company will be in that low to mid-30s putting the whole company together.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
And it just seems more back-end loaded versus before. If you could just give a little color on that.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
No, I think that's about what we were anticipating. Obviously we didn't talk about FY 2019 when we were in the last quarter, but we talked about that we were going to anticipate more work with the plants for the first half of 2019. And that's where we're at. But I'm very pleased with the productivity pace. The improvements that we're making line by line and the improvements that our team members are making is going to enable us to close those factories and take the costs out that we need to and position us to be in very good shape for the second half.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll get back in queue. Thanks.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
So, guys, when I look at the organic growth guide for the upcoming year, I know you typically will tend to guide on trend. But the trend so far on your order rates have been much better. And so how should I think about that range that you've given? The low end seems lower than we anticipated, but obviously the order trends still remain very good.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Joe. This is Tom. Let me first start with maybe the process of how we developed the guide, so people have some context, and then I'll go through and answer your question. So first we look at order patterns, just like you described. We get input from our customers and our distributors, we obviously get forecasts from all of our divisions. We look at the economic models on industrial production growth. And then we built our own regression models that we have by our respective groups to help predict the future. So, what I'm going to focus on is my comments on organic growth because we can't predict currency. So our range of 2.5% to 5% looks like approximately 5% for the first half and approximately 2.5% for the second half. But really the rates of growth coming down in the second half primarily because of the comparisons. If you look at the comparison of 2019 to 2018, it's much harder than the comparison from 2018 to 2017. But I would describe this organic growth environment as one of the best ones that we've had in my recent memory with a significant number of positive end markets. And I'm going to run you through our forecast for the end markets. I'm going to put a little asterisk by my comments that this is our forecast as far as how Parker's going to perform in these end markets, not necessarily predictor of how the whole market's going to do. But I'm going to do just three buckets
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Got it. That was very helpful, Tom. And obviously it sounds like the outlook remains pretty strong. And just given your visibility, I guess we'll wait and see that update later this year. But maybe thinking about how you're thinking about the incremental margin/EBIT bridge for the year for 2019 versus 2018, when I take a look at the midpoint of your guidance, it implies roughly $115 million in EBIT. I guess how are we supposed to think about how much of that is coming from the cost savings and the benefits associated with all the actions you've taken versus, again, how you're thinking about just the volume leverage for the rest of the year?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Joe. Let me take this one for a little bit here. It will be a combination. So we will see savings from efficiencies as we complete the plant closures in the first half of 2019. We will continue to see productivity and efficiency come through the margins as we continue to work on Win Strategy initiatives. And just overall as we've seen some pretty high level of growth and to keep up with that, it's been at times inefficient in terms of premium freight and such and we've gotten better at that. We've seen improvement in that and we'll continue to see improvement in maintaining our customer deliveries in this growth period as we go forward. So it'll be a combination of things.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, it's Tom. The bottom (35:27) numbers, our MROS forecast is in the low to mid-30s for the total company for next year's guide.
Joseph M. Grabowski - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO. Your line is now open.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hi. How's it going?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hi, Joel.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
And I just wondered, I know it's too early to start making bigger acquisitions again and all that. Can you talk a little bit about Aerospace and how that fits in? It used to be more than 20% of the mix and now it's 15%-ish. And I just wondered, you're having great success there and I just wondered how you think about incremental acquisitions overall and Aerospace in particular.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Joel. This is Tom. So our acquisition strategy and I mentioned this briefly at the Investor Day, one, is first to be consolidator of choice within the motion control space. So we are number one but we have only about 11% share of a $130 billion space. So we want to be at bat – not that we'll swing at everything, but we want to be at bat looking at things that make sense for us in the motion control space. Second is, all things being equal, we want to invest in aerospace, infiltration and engineering materials in our Instrumentation Groups. Those are groups that tend to have higher margins and a little more resilience over a business cycle. So clearly Aerospace is on that list. And maybe if I could talk about capital deployment just in a broader sense, we are in a much better position as we go into FY 2019 than we were in 2018 from a capital deployment standpoint. Our balance sheet is in a robust position at 2.1 gross debt to EBITDA multiples. So we're going to do our dividends and we're targeting 30% of net income and net income is going to keep growing, so we – which is a big growth there. We're going to invest in organic growth and productivity. I mentioned that at Investor Day, so strategic investments in productivity to drive productivity within the plants on additive and robotics and those type of things. And then to your point, we're going to look at acquisitions and share repurchase and make the best decisions we can for the shareholders. But Aerospace, we like about a 20/80 balance. And I would remind people, when you look at our technologies, all of our technologies are the same. We just happen to call out Aerospace as a market-facing segment because of the customer profile there. But it's the same motion control technologies that go into Aerospace that go into Semicon that go into all these other technologies – these other end markets. So we like it and we've done a lot of work in Aerospace over the last 10 years from the R&D work that we've done, the Win Strategy, the good work that the team's done there. It's in a great position and it's going to yield nice benefits going forward for us.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
And then just a weird question for Lee. As you go around to all the different factories, are you finding anywhere where the cost savings – like you're reaching your efficiency goals and you're running out of things to do? Or just a little sense of where you are, what inning maybe on this overall cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joel, can you believe me on one thing? I am not running out of things to do. No, I'll tell you, very proud of the team. We continue to make productivity improvements. We continue to change what we're working on in the factories. And I've used this analogy with many of you. We're in the early stages of our journey because there's constantly opportunities to eliminate waste in all the businesses and our teams are focused on doing that.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
All right. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Joel.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Hi. Good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hi, David.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Just curious about the first half, the comment about North America being mid-teens and on the incrementals. Just trying to get a feel. I mean, the basic math I'm running here, it looks like for the whole company we're talking about $45 million in the sense of the first half incrementals are 17% to 18% for the whole company and then the back half of the year has kind of 200%. I know it's a really easy comp, so it's sort of a funny number. But it seems like it's a $45 million number where if you added it to the first half and took it out of the second half, you'd be doing your 30%, 35% incrementals. So I'm trying to gauge the comfort, the understanding of that kind of size of a number on the ability to get that with the plant closures going into the back half. Or is there maybe some cushion in the first half? I'm just trying to understand. That's a sizable number that it's loaded in the second half. So if you can maybe help me somehow understand that a little bit better.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, David, let me spell out what we think we're going to achieve in savings from our efforts. So with the CLARCOR cost to achieve efforts, we'll be spending about $13 million throughout fiscal year 2019, and that'll be heavily weighted in the first half. Out of that, we expect to increase our margins with $75 million of synergy savings split pretty evenly first half, second half. Then in addition, we'll have our other areas of Parker working on continuing improvements through realignment. That'll be a $22 million cost for the year, fairly evenly split first half second half, and $10 million of savings heavily weighted in the second half.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Yeah, I guess it's a little less back-half loaded than maybe the math suggests. Is it also a function maybe about obviously some of the inefficiencies go away, the slower growth is maybe a little bit easier to serve? You're a little bit in scramble mode right now. But is there also some price increases for the calendar year that you're expecting? Or just to better understand, we all know that it was going to be back half loaded on the margin just trying to get incremental comfort on the pieces.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
David, it's Tom. We do feel very good about the back half. And you're right. Clearly we've been racing up to get on top of the demand, and we feel very good about what we see on the metrics productivity freight costs going down in the second half that they will start to peel-off even more as we go into the second half of FY 2019. Pricing actions and activity has been very robust as we've worked, as Lee described, throughout the year. I think we've done a great job on that. We have been on top of it and that will clearly help us as well as we go into next year.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Okay. I'll get back in queue. Thank you very much.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, David.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I've got some more math for you. Cathy, I think you just said $75 million of synergy savings from CLARCOR in 2019. If I figured out 75% split North America, that's still 110 basis points of margin expansion that you would get in North America just from the CLARCOR synergy savings. I'd expect you'd have some productivity improvements some low duplicate costs going through as the year progresses. Yet the midpoint of North American guidance is only up 40 basis points. Can you guys talk about what the additional drag on margins there is and why we shouldn't expect to see some of those margins improved a bit more than what's in your guidance?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, Nathan, this is Tom. If you look at it in total, these are some pretty good MROSs for North America, because it's still going to come up full year in that 25% to 30% range. And all the particulars that you're talking about the ins and outs, these are still good numbers with a second half that really reflects I think what you're saying. The first half has still got the redundant plans and activities that we're doing there over time, et cetera, that will be running. And you're going to the second half with 40% to 50%, which is going to reflect all of the numbers that you're seeing. And so I think it's weighed down primarily because of the first half performance. But a full year in a 25% to 30% range is a very good number, given the plant closure activity we'll complete in the first half.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And I know you guys, have limited visibility into what happens in the second half of the fiscal year and you've kind of use that regression model of the 48/52 revenue split. Can you talk about maybe what your assumptions are for first half organic revenue growth versus what second half organic revenue growth is by segment if you have those there?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Nathan. So in the first half, Tom had mentioned that we're expecting organic growth of midpoint of 5%. That breaks down close to 6.5% North America, just under 3% International and just over 6.5% for Aerospace. In the second half, the overall organic growth is expected to be around 2.5% and that breaks down as a little bit over 3% for North America, close to 2.5% for International and just under 1% for Aerospace.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And you guys pretty much assume that current business trends maintain into the second half. And if there was any improvement in the economy these continue to grow there would potentially be upside to those numbers in the second half?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, Nathan, it's Tom. Yes, I would feel that that's the right way to describe it. I would not – just for everybody that's listening, I would not over-read the second half. Obviously, we get the benefit of being one of the first companies to describe 2019 and we're giving it our best visibility based on the models that we've built to describe that. But I think this environment, I'm very encouraged by the economic environment, the activity levels we have with our customers and our distributors. So I think, obviously, the second half has got opportunities to improve.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Very helpful. Thanks very much for your time.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. A lot of my questions have been answered. But I wanted to go back to your comments perhaps on EAME (46:23) moderating a little bit through the course of Q2. Perhaps you could give us a little more color on that either by country or by end market or just any commentary that you're seeing in that region, please.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, it's Tom. And I'm not going to go by country by country, but it continues to be a good region for us. I think most of what we saw was seasonal and typical Europe as they go into the summer period and the heavy holiday time for Europeans. In general, if you were to look at how Europe trends versus our other regions, it tends to tread at a lower growth rate. So that was not unexpected. And that's really what we forecasted for Europe as we go into the next year. At a high level, it's Latin America at the highest growth rate, North America and Asia towards the top end of that range that I described 2.5% to 5%, and Europe being more towards the lower end of that range.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
And, Ann, this is Lee. I would just add on I've personally reached out to a lot of our larger customers. They are very, very encouraged going forward. So I think some of it is just seasonal, as Tom said.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. that's helpful color. And then on the margin outlook. Aerospace 19.9% operating profit in Q4. That can come from a lot of different things, but what drove that strong margin in the fourth quarter versus the guide for the full year for 2019?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Ann, we typically see a very nice aftermarket mix in both – mostly third quarter tends to be our highest best quarter for mix in terms of aftermarket, but the fourth quarter it came through as well for us. We had some nice military aftermarket that won't necessarily repeat and it helped the mix and the margin. We also were more effective with our development costs. Development costs for the year came in at 6.5% which is lower than we were expecting. We've gotten more efficient with that effort. And then it was overall just productivity improvement in the operations as the team continues to realign and work on Win Strategy initiatives. So a bit of it won't continue because of the mix, but we hope to see continued improvement in margins through productivity improvements and continued efficiency in the development cost activities.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
And just for clarification, what were development costs previously? And is the 6.5% sustainable? Is that what's in the margin guide?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. We have been running closer to 7.25% or higher in prior years. The last couple of years have been high because of the new platforms that we've been working hard to get into service. That will now taper down as the planes are getting ready to fly and we're at a more normal operating level for development costs. We're expecting next year to average somewhere between 6.25% and 6.75% of sales for Aerospace.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I appreciate it.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical. Your line is now open.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good day, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hi, Jeff.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Hey. Tom, I was wondering if we could just step back maybe bigger picture. Obviously we all have our calculators and protractors out here trying to work through your arithmetic. But we're comparing a heavy transition year in 2018 to somewhat of a partial transition year in 2019, with the carryover effects you're dealing with. Just going to get on the other side of this, has the incremental margin profile with the company materially changed? And what would you guide us to as a reasonable underlying incremental once the dust settles from the sort of thing?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Jeff. It's Tom. So, you're talking about, say, beyond FY 2019?
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, I think a good number is always that 30% plus or minus a little bit. And we are on a march here. We're going to get to 19% segment operating margins and 20% EBITDA margins and we're not going to stop. But that's the next bridge we want to go over. And we gave some visibility in the Investor Relations Day as to various buckets that we're going to go after. But what I'm so encouraged by is we're in an environment now, unless we go back to the first Investor Day that we hosted for you when Lee and I both took our jobs, we thought we were living on a 1% to 2% organic growth world. And whether our 2.5% to 5% ends up being an actual number, it's still a significantly better environment for industrial companies than it was just a couple of years ago. And you put all the changes we've outdone on the new Win Strategy around engagement and ownership, our premier customer experience, things we're doing, that experience for customers, all of the initiatives and growth, this has been the best period we've had demonstrating growth greater than the market than we probably have done in the last 10 years. And we continue – which we plan to do in 2019 and clearly set a new standard for ourselves. And then the financial performance initiatives, we haven't talked much about simplification on the call yet, but we're early days in that because we are just now starting to tackle the 80/20 of our revenue complexity and we've got more to do on Lean and supply chain and pricing activities. So I'm very encouraged. We had a lot of work that we're doing that is sometimes difficult to see what's happening underneath, which is why I tried to give us much color as I could to the EBITDA side of things and the fact that we hit record reported margins. Just to put it in context, FY 2012 15.2% and the reported margin this year is 15.7%. Well that was in round numbers almost $200 million. If you add up all the incremental D&A from CLARCOR the incremental costs to achieve and the restructuring $200 million of headwind and we still put 50 basis points higher than the all-time record of the company. I think, which is the point you're getting at, is once you start to move from that and you have less of those unusual activities which we will once we clear FY 2019, there is a very strong underlying performance. And we're the kind of group that we're not going to be happy with static performance. So it's all about continuous improvement and driving EPS to higher levels for our shareholders.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Yeah. Thank you for that. Then the one other thing I'm trying to get at with that too is I would think that 30%-ish underlying is happening as we speak and there's all this noise around that. And just adding together those puts and takes, I think a lot of us on the phone are getting to higher numbers?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, I think you're right. Because I think the comment – not to be too precise, but when we talked about it at IR Day, we talked about something closer more in the mid-30s because of the changes that we have made and the investment we're going to make in CapEx, tighter productivity that we'd hope to lift up in our traditional 30%, give or take, just to a little higher band going beyond FY 2019.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is now open.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Joe. Good morning.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Just in the guide, what's your underlying assumptions for IP? Should we just assume that it's 150 basis points below in a range there? Or how are you building up to that? And what's your view inherent in that on price cost for next year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I'll take the IP question and I'll let Lee discuss the price cost. And this is Tom, Joe. So, we have to build this because you don't typically get a global industrial forecast based on the Parker fiscal year. But we do our best to build it. That forecast is approximately 2.7%. So at our range of 2.5% to 5%, we would clearly be performing at greater than that.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So, 2.7% is your baseline forecast for the Parker timeframe global IP?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Right.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I'll let Lee talk about...
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, it's Lee. Just maybe reiterating what I mentioned earlier. So we've got some very good processes here internally that really track input costs and sales price. And at a minimum, we'll be margin neutral going forward. We are on top of it, have been on top of it. And if you look at us in cycles past where we've had inflation, we're pretty good at making sure, at worst case, we're margin neutral.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. And then last for me. Cathy, I think you mentioned this on Ann's question, but the development cost for Aero next year, I think you said 6.25%, 6.75%. Can you remind me of what it was in the last couple of years?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
It's been more in the 7-plus percent range. I think we finished FY 2017 at a little – about 7.3%. The year before 7.6%. It was as high as 10% back when we first started on some of these new platforms. So we're now at a more normal, stable level as the platforms are entering service.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Great. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Nicole Deblase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hi. Thanks for taking my question.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, my first question is just around tariffs. So, we've kind of extensively talked about what price/cost looks like for you guys this year and into 2019. But if you could talk a little bit about any work you've done on the expected impact from tariffs on your business in 2019.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Nicole. It's Tom. So, the short answer on tariffs, and I'll give you the longer one here in a second, is we're in good shape. Our supply chain model, we make, buy and service in the region for the region. So that naturally helps us. But if I just go through Section 232 and 301 here for a minute. So, 232, which is the steel and aluminum, because of the reduction in the number countries that are actually being exposed, the number of exemptions that were placed and the fact that this is down to milled products only, it's only about $1.5 million of impact for us, all of Section 232. And in Section 301, if you take list number one and list number two and even list number three, which is the $200 billion that the President has talked about, even at the latest number bumping it up to 25% tariff, that's about $18 million even all of that. So in round numbers, if you add the 232 at $1.5 million and $18 million for 301, you're looking at approximately $20 million for us. So it's pretty immaterial against our total direct material spend. And our process is, we're going to pass that on. We're going to cover that cost immediately. And we're not going to eat one dime of that and I think our customers understand that. And so this is small for us and we're going to cover it.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. And then just one on Industrial International margins. Seems like the margin expansion that you guys are forecasting year-on-year is pretty impressive on kind of I'd say pretty modest revenue growth next year. If you could just elaborate a little bit on what's driving the confidence in the MROS there, that would be helpful.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Nicole. Yeah, we've been working hard in our international operations to realign them to a more effective cost base. And they've been now getting to the point where we are enjoying the savings from that and the higher margins. So we have more to do. There's more realignment that we continue to work on and more improvements. They also have gotten better and better at the tools that we use through the Win Strategy in becoming more productive in our normal operations. And so we're seeing the benefits of all of that and we expect that to continue into fiscal 2019 despite the volume not increasing too significantly.
Nicole Deblase - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Understood. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Nicole. Brian, we have time for one more question, please.
Operator:
Yes, ma'am. Our last question then will come from the line from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
Thanks. I guess I better make this a good one, right, since it's the last question.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
The pressure's on, Nigel.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
I know. Seriously. So most of my questions have been answered. So can we talk pension? Discount rates for you, given your 30 June year-end, discount rates are significantly higher. And market returns are also healthy, positive as well. So just wondering how the pension expense in fiscal 2019 is tracking versus fiscal 2018.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Nigel, we're forecasting – we have raised the discount rate slightly, which will benefit our pension expense. However, as we looked at the rate of return on assets that we were using, we did decide to lower that slightly, which is going to offset the benefit we got from the discount rate change. So we expect FY 2019 to be pretty comparable to our fiscal year 2018 pension expense.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
Okay. And then just coming back to the pricing, and I'm curious whether the strength in pricing that you're talking about and the confidence in passing through the inflationary impact of tariffs, is that both through OEM and channel? So would you describe OEM pricing power as strong as channel, or is it a case of OEMs being squishy but, say, there's enough pricing power in the channel to offset that?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nigel, it's Lee. Definitely the distribution channel is a little more elastic than the OEM channel, but we've been effective in both channels. And there's inflation throughout it. So these are conversations nobody wants to have, but everybody understands where we have to get to. So we've been successful in both.
Nigel Coe - Wolfe Research LLC:
Great. Thanks, Lee.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thank you, Nigel. All right. This concludes our Q&A and the earnings call for today. Thank you for joining us. Robert and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. Thanks, everybody. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude the program and we may all disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.
Analysts:
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2018 Parker-Hannifin Corp. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Cathy Suever, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, you may begin.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Chelsea. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the third quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's third quarter performance, together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2018. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 4, as Tom will get us started with the highlights.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So thanks, Cathy, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for your participation today. We really appreciate your interest in Parker. So the combination of the Win Strategy, the CLARCOR integration and the strong growth that we saw in the quarter put some very, very nice results for the quarter. Thank you to the Parker team members around the world for all your hard work and dedication and the great progress that we're making. So let's jump into the quarter, starting first with safety. So our injuries were down 25%, and this is driven primarily because of our engagement initiatives, specifically the high-performance teams. Regarding high-performance teams, this initiative has got about 80% of our people across the company are high-performance teams, about 5,000 teams worldwide. Remember the goal here is to create an ownership culture, and that idea of ownership starts with safety. And the kind of progress we've seen on safety, we expect to translate to the progress we want as we create ownership around quality, cost and delivery. We hit a number of all-time records in the quarter as reported. And just a reminder, when I say all-time records, this means in the history of Parker. So we had sales of $3.75 billion for the quarter, net income of $366 million, net income ROS of 9.8% and EPS of $2.70. We had a third quarter record for segment operating margins of 15.8% as reported. This is especially noteworthy, given the amount of depreciation and amortization we have in CLARCOR, the restructuring, the CLARCOR costs to achieve and all the activities that happened in the quarter, to still put up an all-time record for Q3 is very impressive. Other highlights for the quarter, sales increased 20%. It was 8% organic, which is approximately 2 times the growth rate for global industrial production. We had order entry rates increase 11%. This marks the third quarter in a row of double-digit order entry. Adjusted segment operating margins were 16.3%, and EBITDA margins were up 280 basis points to 17.1% as reported or 17.6% adjusted. Adjusted EPS was $2.80, increasing 33% versus the prior year. So let me switch to cash and capital deployment. As you've heard me say before, our goal is to be great generators and deployers of cash. And our priorities are, in this order; first, dividends. And last week, we were very excited to announce our 15% dividend increase, very positive for our shareholders. This marks the 62nd consecutive year of increase in annual dividends paid. It's a track record we're very proud of and a track record we have every means to continue with. Organic growth investment, which is the most efficient investment we can make on behalf of shareholders, and we've done a great job paying down debt. Our gross debt-to-EBITDA multiples, if you start when we did the CLARCOR close, it was at 3.6 times. And at the Q3 close, we're at 2.6 times. So, very significant progress on debt reduction, really tied to the fact that we've driven significant improvements in generating EBITDA. We're going to continue our 10b5-1 share repurchase program. And as our debt reduces, we're going to reevaluate acquisitions and discretionary share repurchase and, as always, try to make the best decisions we can on behalf of our shareholders. So I'd like to make some comments on operating margin performance and just make a couple of reminders on a couple of key points and to provide some context into the operating margin performance for the quarter. I'll start again reminding everybody that this operating margin for Q3, despite all the extensive restructuring, was the best in Parker's history. What it does is really points to the upside that we have on margins once the restructuring and costs achieved are behind us. The strategy here on all this activity is that it's a long-term approach. We're going to protect our customers during these extensive plant closures, and this drives some short-term impact, but absolutely the right thing to do long-term, long-term for our customers, long-term for our shareholders. To provide some additional context, we're closing about 36 facilities, which represents 2 million square feet of floor space, so a pretty significant endeavor. The headwinds that impacted North America Industrial margins are a couple things
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Tom. I'll now refer you to slide number 5 and begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. You see here as-reported earnings per share for the current year third quarter of $2.70 and adjusted earnings per share of $2.80. The $2.80 compares to $2.11 for the same quarter a year ago, a 33% increase year-over-year. The respective adjustments for both years are as follows
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Cathy. We're making good progress. We're seeing broad-based improvement demand across geographies. The Win Strategy initiatives are generating improvements in both growth and in earnings. We're increasing our earnings guidance. We're on track for a record year performance. And we really have a bright future ahead. Those new 5-year targets we've announced put Parker in the top-quartile performance versus our peers. So I want to say again thank you to the Parker team members around the world for all their progress, their hard work. And I want to thank the shareholders for their continued confidence in us. At this point, I'll hand it over to Chelsea to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Good morning. Can we talk about the realignment costs and the CLARCOR costs? Maybe you could give us some color in terms of have the absolute costs gone up? Or are we just pushing out costs because volume is too strong, and we have duplication? And any color you can give us around quantifying how much more we're going to spend now in fiscal 2019 than we might have thought a quarter ago or a couple of months ago.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, Ann. It's Tom. So we're moving some costs from 2018 to 2019. I'll talk about that in a minute. But what we experienced during the quarter is what I described at the beginning. It's a significant amount of restructuring that we're doing, a tremendous amount of floor space, and we took the long approach on it as far as protecting our customers and making sure that we protected lead times and service our customers to the best of our ability. So we ran redundant plants, and we also have redundancy in bridge builds that we did to help cover for that. Now we track productivity at all the closing and the receiving plants, and what we saw during the quarter is that productivity started to get better. So I fully expect that what we experienced this last quarter was kind of the worst of what we're going to experience in inefficiencies. We moved only three plant closures from this year to next year. So it was 39. We're now at 36, and so those three that we moved were tied to the CLARCOR integration, mainly because of the volume that we've seen. So we really think that we've got some nice gradual improvement in front of us. Even with all this, I keep coming back to the fact that these are all-time best margins that the company's had, and the EBITDA margin improving 120 basis points adjusted year-over-year. So to me, the glass is very much half-full on this, that we accomplished a tremendous amount. We're only at the beginning of year two of CLARCOR. When you look at all the synergies, the buckets that we look at, they're all ahead of schedule. The footprint, we fully expected year two to become a big year for all the footprint activity, and that's what it's turned out to be. And even with the slight push-outs and running the plants longer because of the volume, which obviously is a good problem to have, we're still on track for the original footprint plan that we had when reviewed this with the board and when we communicated to everybody here. So this is short-term noise that's going to work its way through, and we look forward to seeing nice, nice progress as we progress in the next several quarters.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yes, Tom, can you give us any color on the cadence of the improvement of incremental profits, particularly in North America? I mean, I think what investors are focused on is the incremental profits. When will we get back to your more normal 25%, 30% incrementals?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, what we've got in the guide for Q4 is a 19% incremental for North America. I'm not going to go beyond that at this point because I'd like to just have another quarter under our belt to see all the plant metrics and how that progresses. So I'm not going to get into FY 2019. We do expect that we're going to see some of those inefficiencies go into the first half of FY 2019, but that is going to continuously get better as we go into 2019. The low-water mark was this last quarter, going to get a little better in Q4. Obviously, we'll give you a full look in August of what we think for the next year. But you're going to see some of it in the first half of 2019. It's just going to lessen each quarter as we go. Now on the restructuring, which I want to come back to the costs achieved, so we lowered it from $52 million this year to $45 million. So that's $7 million we moved into FY 2019. So originally, it was $10 million FY 2019. It will be $17 million in FY 2019 as far as the costs achieved for CLARCOR.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I appreciate the color. I'll get back in queue.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Again, following up on some of the margin questions here. I think we've seen several companies report so far this quarter having some trouble passing through raw material inflation. And I think probably some of the stock reaction here is people wondering how much of the margin drag here is CLARCOR stuff versus price cost. And I know you guys track those indices very closely. So can you talk about where you are on price costs, both in the quarter and what your expectations are going forward?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nathan, it's Lee. Yeah. I thought that was going to be the first question. So, as you know, you've followed us for a long time. Pricing for us is more than just passing through input costs. I mean, we've got a very strong discipline in this company on how we do things when it comes to price. But we're definitely in a period of inflationary costs throughout the supply chain. And it's not the first time we've been here before. I mean, we've been through several cycles before in the past where this has happened. But I will tell you first and foremost, this is not contributing to the North American margin incrementals. I mean, I think, one way you can look at that is the nice margin accretion we had in International and in Aerospace as just some indication that price costs, you know, our processes are recovering price costs. But just as a reminder on how this works maybe for everybody on the phone is we've got standard processes inside the company that really start at the division level or business unit level. And we've got core teams that work around price and then work around purchasing. And in both of those, we track our selling price index, what we're charging for something this year versus prior year, and our purchase price index, what we paid for something this year versus prior year. And the benefit of that is we've got teams that have good communication about what's happening on input costs, and we can take actions very quickly. And for myself and Tom and our senior management team, all this rolls up to us, so we have a very good visibility at the corporate level on what's happening. So year-to-date, to be specific, we do have a positive spread between our price and input costs. We use surcharges on heavy commodity-based contracts. Those contracts that have heavy commodities like copper would be a perfect example. So those contracts are material-indexed, and we get out in front of that. And then just in terms of the channels distribution, a lot of channel checks have gone on. You can see we've done price increases there, and we can do those frequently. And then on OEM customers, it's really customer-by-customer negotiation.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So just to put a ball on that. You said year-to-date, you're positive on price costs. Were you still positive in the third quarter?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, we were.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And then my follow-up question, you've still got very strong orders going on here, 11% North American Industrial versus a 9% comp and 8% in International versus a 13% comp. Raising revenue guidance here for the year. Can you talk about which markets have been better than you thought they were going to be coming into the back half? Because I think you guys have been pretty clear that you didn't think the double-digit North America order rates were going last this far into fiscal 2018. So any color you can give us there?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, I would say that inorganic growth really moved in the direction we highlighted and expected during our call. I mean, maybe I'll just -I'll do my typical quick walk here, and it will be brief. But on Aerospace, we continue to see very good demand for single-aisle commercial aircraft. So build rates are up, and we're seeing that, and which goes hand in glove with that is the commercial MRO increase throughout the quarter with continued traffic growth and then the benefit that there is fewer retirements with planes because fuel prices are so low. So that increases the spares and repairs opportunity. There are some headwinds in commercial. It's really has to do around product mix. There's some changeover in some wide-body aircraft and a pullback on some build rates with some of the wide-body, but that's really a product mix. On the military side, we continue to see very strong military MRO growth with fleet upgrades. And then we've seen on the military side on an OE level F-35 production continues to ramp up, so that's been positive. On the industrial side, I have to tell you, if I look at all our heat maps, it's really hard to find an end market that's not accelerating. We continue to find significant markets that have had year-over-year growth and continue to grow during the quarter. All the natural resource end markets continued to grow during the quarter. This includes agriculture, construction equipment, mining, oil and gas, to name some. And on the oil and gas, the land base is really back very strong. And we've also seen, for the first time, some increased activity in offshore activity, so a lot of quoting and exploration at this point in time, which is positive. And then semicon and distribution, I'll comment on distribution here in a minute. When it comes to distribution, we continue to see just a strong rebound in activity from our partners around the world, very optimistic. And really a reality or a gut check for me is what's happening with the capital project business with our distributors. So these are bundling of Parker technologies for our customers on capital projects, and that business has become very robust, which tells me there's a lot of activity in the channel. I would say the only notable end markets that we saw contraction on, which you would guess was the power-generation market. So that – there's been a pullback there. Just quickly touching on the regions, North America, very strong, and the sentiment across our base continues to be strong, especially with our distribution. In EMEA, we continue to see year-over-year order entry growth in most of our end markets and countries, and we're forecasting a second year of organic growth, which is really nice to see for EMEA. And in Asia, China continues to lead with strong industrial and natural resource end markets. The strength in China really has been led by infrastructure investment and a strong housing market. And Southeast Asia continues to be strong. So I would say we continue to be very encouraged by what's happening with our end markets, both domestically and internationally. And there continues to be a lot of positive global sentiment to growth right now.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Excellent, thanks very much.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes. Thank you, Nathan.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
So I guess, just maybe touching on the CLARCOR disruptions one more time. Can you guys try to quantify what the disruptive impact has been? I know you took down your North America guidance by roughly 50 basis points. Was all of that – can all of that be contributed to CLARCOR? And then I know you talked a low bit about the first half of next year you're seeing a bleed-in. Yeah, talk us through your confidence and what you're looking forward to really start to see the improvement in incremental margins as we progress through the early part of next year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, its Tom. So just to clarify, the disruptions that we see, everyone wants to talk about CLARCOR, obviously, there's a lot of activity that's happened there. We're closing 36 plants. 19 of them are tied to the CLARCOR integration. 17 is the rest of the company. And the high volume that we're seeing obviously hits all of those activities. So this isn't just a CLARCOR. So this – the inefficiencies related to plants closures really hits across the company because of the higher volume and the fact that we are doing absolutely the right thing long-term is protecting our customers and running a little more redundant activities to protect those customers. So the issue is just to help for people to understand, when we say inefficiencies, what does it mean? It's things like premium freight, it's overtime, its scrap, rework, lower productivity rates at the closing plant and receiving plant and just the redundant cost that you have if you happen to run plants simultaneously. You need to build a bridge inventory or because you're running both plants you've got too much volume and you need to do that. And if you have a totally redundant plant structure and redundant variable costs, you can imagine what that does to your incrementals. So that issue is more than CLARCOR. It cuts across the grain. And we think about for 2019, again, I'm not going to get over my skis and start predicting 2019, we will benefit from having an extra 90 days of seeing how all the plant closure work is going. We check this we – again, I'll give you clarity. So we're closing 36 plants. Within those plants are dozens and dozens of individual product line, pieces of equipment. So when you add it all up, you get hundreds, hundreds of product line moves that you're making. The team is tracking each one of those lines, a whole suite of metrics. That gets pulled up to Lee and I in a more summary version that we see once a week. And we saw good evidence during the quarter that those bottomed and started to improve, which was very encouraging. But we wanted to give you better transparency. We now have better granularity on the data, and that's why we updated the North America margins the way we did going forward. And 19% is our best estimate based on the – all of the improvements we've seen so far, incrementals for Q4. I won't forecast 2019 other than just to say we expect gradual improvement beyond the 2019, and we still think we're going to have an additional six months the first half of FY 2019 we will feel it, but we're going to feel at a decreasing rate every quarter as we go forward.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay, that's helpful, Tom. And maybe just staying with this topic, and I fully appreciate that it was both CLARCOR and legacy Parker. I think the original expectation, though, is that all these plants will be closed by the end of this year, again, the end of this fiscal year. Clearly, the growth has been a lot better, which is a positive thing. Is there like a growth bogey perhaps for the fourth quarter where you would maybe even keep some of these plants open longer, or are we like or you feel pretty well committed that will get to the closures on the 36 plants by the end of this fiscal year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think we're in a pretty good trajectory for that. I mean, we've got the order entry right now for Q4 and all that. We've pushed the three plants into FY 2019. So we're really close to that 36 number for what we think is going to happen this year.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay, got it. Thanks,guys. I will get back in queue.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Joe.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey, how is it going?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hey. Good morning, Joel.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
You gave us a little bit of color on Aerospace, and I just wondered, are we kind of coming into a period of – is this a new higher run rate on the operating margins, or is it just a lot of things came together or coming together in the shorter term, and there has, you know what I mean, the balance between structural change and shorter-term or medium-term trends is like we're going to have lower margins going forward?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, Joel, I would say that for the third quarter, things all aligned pretty nicely for us where it was a nice aftermarket mix. We tend to have our best aftermarket mix in the third quarter as the big airlines have lower traffic, so they're bringing aircraft in for maintenance. So it's typical for third quarter to have that nice mix. We'll see a little more of that extend into the fourth quarter, but as it wraps around the first quarter and second quarter next year, we don't enjoy as nice of a mix for aftermarket versus OE. We also had lower development costs this quarter. This is the lowest cost we had all year so far. Some of that is delays and will move into the fourth quarter. So if you notice in our guidance, the fourth quarter margins aren't quite as high as third quarter came out to be because we are going to be experiencing high development costs in Q4. Beyond that, we are seeing nice, continuous growth in aftermarket, and that comes at higher margins. So as time moves on and we continue to have more and more hardware out there flying, the aftermarket continues to improve. So in addition to that, the team has done a lot of hard work on simplification and the whole Win Strategy, and they're taking a lot of costs out. So I think the higher margins are the future, but it does mix a little differently in Q3 and Q4 versus the first half of the year.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. And then just one cleanup question, can you talk a little bit about the why the free cash flow was down year-over-year? And then if you take out that pension contribution, it looks like it was down a little bit even more than the year ago.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Compared to last year, we are behind in our percent of sales of free cash flow. A lot of it is the growth that we've had to invest in working capital, higher inventory and higher receivables moving through, and then – and just as we're moving through the higher volume. The end of the year tends to be our best cash flow generation, and the trend is always very good towards the end of the year. So we still expect to make the targets that we have. We're at the 100% conversion of net income. We expect to finish the year that way, and we expect that free cash flow percent to improve during the rest of the year.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Great. Thank you very much.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Joel.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks a lot. Good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Question on the facility consolidation activities. I mean, you've had a lot of questions on this already, but I just want to go back and to a response, I think, it was to Joe Ritchie's question. Do you expect to have all but 3 of the 36 completed by the end of this fiscal year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Andy, its Tom. The three I was referring to, last quarter, we said 39 plants that we're going to close. So we've updated it to 36. So those three are going to be pushed into FY 2019, but we're on track with the 36 to finish this fiscal year.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. So I know you don't want to talk about fiscal 2019 right now, but how linear is this? Is it really truncated into the two quarters that just have reported already the next quarter, and then it just kind of tapers off in the first half of 2019? I'm asking because it's pretty clear people are worried about carrying costs into kind of a decelerating environment.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Well, I would say, when I look at – again, it's Tom again, Andy. The plant closure work really started in Q1 and then picked up steam in Q2 and Q3. Q4 will be another important quarter, and you'll see a tail off, which is why the MROS, when you look at what happened over so far this year, incremental margins for North America bottomed in Q3. We're expecting to get better in Q4. Based on in-process productivity metrics that we see that you don't – obviously can't see, but we see that the progress is starting to turn and we should be able to experience that in the numbers that we give to you into Q4. And then it's going to gradually get better from the first half of the year. So the worst is behind us. It's not going to flip like a switch to all of a sudden where, bang, it's not an issue. It's going to get a little better in Q4 and will continue to get better the first six months of FY 2019, and we should be through with it at that point.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. And then, if I go back to the Investor Day, there was a question, I forget who asked it, about the incremental margins assumed over the next – within the next five-year plan. And I think one of the answers was those will be truncated to the first. Those will be higher in fiscal 2019 and kind of trail off a little bit as you go through the five years. With this extension of the consolidation activities, is that still your expectation?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Andy, it's Tom again. Yes, they'll be higher in 2019. The first half will be a little bit impacted by it, but they'll be higher in 2019. When you look at that forecast, as that walk to 19% in FY 2023, and if I remember correctly, I think it was a 37% MROS through that whole period, it was running higher in 2019 and then starts to glide down to a more normal path as we go into the future years. So yes, even with this, you'll see an uplift in 2019.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. I guess, my first question, just based on the shrink that you saw in your North American order book in the quarter, I mean, how much visibility do you have? And what's the risk that as we're shifting to 2019 does mix continues to play an unfavorable role in terms of margin shifts with the mobile equipment markets being so strong?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Jamie, it's Tom. So, if you just take the big – lead one through all the more specific markets, but if you just take the three big constituents, distribution grew high-single digits for us in the quarter, industrial grew mid-single digits, and mobile was low-teens. So yes, when we look at it year-over-year, mix was still a challenge for us. Compared to the previous quarter, mobile was up at 20%. So mobile has softened a little bit in comparison, and I think you'll see that continue to temper as we go forward. So it will be a headwind a little bit year-over-year, but it will – these things will equalize. I would tell you that the lion's share of our challenges from incremental margins in North America is not tied to mix. It's tied to just all the work we're doing on plant closures, both CLARCOR and legacy Parker and all that work across the company.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. And then sorry to ask the incremental margin question again, but I just want to make sure we're crystal clear. At the Analyst Day, you said post this inefficiency period, you would be able to generate above-average incremental margins, so above the 25% to 30%. That is not off the table. Whether it's the second half of 2019 or whatever, but we're still – that's still the right to think about it, just a delay?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Still the right way to think about it.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Just a couple cleanups on CLARCOR. One, can you just talk about the core growth rates that CLARCOR's seen? And maybe how much is – more broadly, how much is tied up in working capital around some of this plant transition?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Jeff, the growth rates that we see for CLARCOR are the standard in the filtration markets, I think low- to mid-single digits growth. Tom quoted that on the longer-term CAGR, we see about 3.5% growth for the CLARCOR business. But with the revenue synergies that we're adding in, that's going to go up to more like 4.5% over the long-term CAGR. So, but think of it in the terms of standard increases that you would see in the filtration market. And the second part of your question was about inventory. Yeah, we certainly have higher levels of inventory as we are bridging from sending the inventory from the sending plant to the receiving plant. We do not want to fall behind on customer deliveries. So there is incremental inventory in the system today longer as we've delayed closing some of these plants that have extended longer than we had hoped. But we hope to see that come down a fair amount in the fourth quarter and then continue to come down as we finish these closures and these transitions in the first half of 2018.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And then finally, just I know the focus is debt pay down. But just with the stock being so dislocated, is that making you rethink buybacks and being more opportunistic? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Jeff, it's Tom. So on the capital deployment, I went through some of those priorities in my opening comments, but just to refresh. Again, it's dividends, and we're very proud of the strong increase that we just made in our consecutive increase record, and we're going to invest in this organic growth. It's a fantastic time to do – it's always a good time to do that. The debt pay down, we've got $550 million of debt coming due in Q4 and Q1 that we want to make sure we're on top of. So that's top of mind to make sure that that happens. You've seen a nice improvement already, but we have those payments out that we want to make sure that we do. Once we clear that, clearly – and we're going to continue the 10b5-1 share repurchase, we'll be able to look at acquisitions and discretionary share repurchase and evaluate both of those simultaneously. And you've all heard me talk about how I want to make sure we have a more assertive balance sheet and that we're active and we'll look at both of those, and we'll look at the pipeline of acquisition. We haven't let off that, even with all the work we're doing. We're just not ready to do anything this minute. But we continue to build those relationships, and we think there's never a bad time to buy Parker stock, especially now. And so we will keep all those as potential opportunities as we go forward.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you. Good day, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Jeffrey.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Good morning. Hey, I just wanted to come back to the disruptions one more time. Obviously, we've done a lot of analysis around this. It seems like we measure everything. To put it bluntly, the stock is kind of responding to concerns you guys have missed the cycle here by over restructuring at the wrong time. I wonder if you could just address that. I mean, is the plant footprint actually where you wanted to be when this is done? But also, kind of secondarily, can you give us some sense of, in aggregate, the headwinds that you have absorbed this year so we can try to make some sort of judgment on our own or where this might normalize or moderate as we move into 2019? Thank you.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Jeffrey, to help put it into context, I would take you to back what EBITDA margins have done over this period of time. 14.7% just from when we made an announcement was December of 2016 to 17.6% now. If you could have told me in little less than 1.5 years, I could – we could drive almost 300 basis points of EBITDA margins, I would have been ecstatic, and I'm still ecstatic with that kind of progress. It's absolutely fantastic. We put all-time records up on operating margin for the quarter even with all this. We are going to put the businesses together, and we doing it in a very constructive, thoughtful fashion And this is -- again, I would just emphasize this is short-term so unless you're an investor for the quarter, and I'm hoping most of the people are listening are investing for the long term with us. You are absolutely ecstatic that we're doing what we're doing. We're taking care of our customers. We're taking share. We're driving margin expansion. And we put up a tremendous amount of records in the quarter even with all this. And we're setting the future up to put numbers up that nobody would have ever guessed this company could do. 19% up margin, 20% EBITDA, 10%-plus EPS growth, fantastic vision for where we're going to go. And I would just encourage everybody to jump on the bus because the bus is going places.
Jeffrey Todd Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC:
Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks. Thank you, Jeffrey.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is open.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, Joe.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
I just wanted to ask about we're starting to see some kind of directional changes in some of the more – in some of the broad macro indicators that impact your business. Still at really healthy levels, but just directionally, kind of plateauing or maybe starting to move lower and start to see them in Europe. Now how do you kind of reconcile that with your order growth? We're still seeing some – looks really good, and Lee's commentary about acceleration. When do you kind of flip into, okay, now we have to start thinking about growing slower and different types of actions and you take about dealing with accelerating markets and decelerating? Where is that line? How does that change your thought process?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, I think, Joe, I think the key thing is that if we look at all our markets today, we can chart them all, and if I drew a line, 95% of them are growing. Now some are growing even on top of tougher comps on previous year, but the reality is they're still growing. So that's what we're looking at. When I'm out with our customer base, very encouraged by the level of activity that's happening. And so I think this is – I think we're in for a fairly decent cycle here of continued economic activity and growth. Yes, I mean, it's the law of numbers here, right? I mean, the comps keep getting tougher as we go forward, but the bottom line is we're growing and we have a chance to put up some decent incrementals on top of that.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
So at this point, like growing but decelerating is not something you're seeing too much yet that you have to start changing the way you kind of approach spending or anything like that?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
No. It's not – I don't have that approach right now.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thank you, Joe. All right, Chelsea, we have time for one more question.
Operator:
Certainly. And our last question will be a follow-up from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, hi. I just have a follow-up question from an investor asking to clarify whether the incremental costs you're not going to see in the first half of 2019 is only from the three final plant closures, or is it – I know you said 36 will be closed at the end of the year. But are there still lingering costs associated with those 36 that will be incurred next year? If you could just clarify what the cost in 2019 are going to be?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, again, it's Tom. It's hard for us to give you 2019 numbers, again, given where we're at right now But the cost for the three plants, obviously, you're going to see that. The inefficiencies, you'll see some of that, but it's going to continue to get better. So again, I'm trying to paint the picture that this was the low watermark in inefficiency we continue to get better as productivity gets better first yields get better, scrap is down, let's see if it get better in Q4, you'll see it get better in each quarter going forward. But when we look – when we gave you that five-year look, we still expected FY 2019 to be a very good year as far as how we can – as we launch towards our new five-year targets, FY 2019 will be a very nice year.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Yeah, I appreciate that. But I think, if I'm interpreting what you said correctly, there will still be some lingering costs associated with the 36 plants that the flow into early part of next year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, it's Tom. If I'm not being clear, yes, inefficiencies for the 36 continue. They just get less and less in the first half.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. Perfect. I just wanted to get that clear. So I appreciate that. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Ann.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. This includes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any more questions. Thank you, everybody. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Executives:
Tom Williams - Chairman and CEO Cathy Suever - EVP, Finance & Administration and CFO Lee Banks - President and COO
Analysts:
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Joel Tiss - BMO Capital Markets John Inch - Deutsche Bank Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus Jeff Sprague - Vertical Research Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Josh Pokrzywinski - Wolfe Research
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Q2 2018 Parker-Hannifin Corp. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would like to [indiscernible] Ms. Cathy Suever. You may begin ma'am.
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's second quarter fiscal year 2018 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio web cast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information web site at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's web site at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the second quarter. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's second quarter performance, together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2018. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 4, as Tom will get us started with the highlights.
Tom Williams:
So thank you Cathy and good morning everybody. Thank you for joining the call and of course your interest in Parker. So let me just make a few general comments and I will get into the quarter specifically. So a top focus of the company continues to be safety and the engagement of our people. These are obviously interconnected, as we improve safety for all of our team members and we have higher levels of engagement across the company, who are going to continue to drive higher and higher operating improvements. When you look at orders for the quarter, very strong momentum across a wide range of markets and geographies, very excited about that. Organic growth was very strong, much faster than industrial production growth, and this is our fourth quarter in a row that we exceeded industrial production growth. The Win Strategy initiatives, when you look at the improvements in growth and operating margins continue to evolve, and we really feel we have got a bright future ahead of us. If you look at the progress over the last few years, remarkable progress. But I would just characterize, that we are still early days of implementing the Win Strategy. So my thanks to everybody around the world, all the Parker team members for all your hard work and your efforts and looking forward to a bright future. So let's get into the quarter, it was a solid quarter and really great first half of the fiscal year, and I will go through a couple of key stats. Safety performance, 22% reduction in recordable injuries, which is very nice. Sales was an all time record for the second quarter, up 26%. Organic growth was approximately a 10% increase, significantly outpacing industrial production growth, and order entry rates increased 13%, making it the highest order entry rates that we have seen since Q4 of FY 2011. So a couple of comments on margins, because it is difficult to look at margins year-over-year, as the prior period did not have CLARCOR net, this period has CLARCOR net. So when you look at adjusted segment operating margins, they continue to improve, we came in at 14.9%. But if you were to add back the incremental depreciation and amortization from the CLARCOR acquisition, you would add 90 basis points back to that number, so what comes in to 15.8% segment operating margins, related to true underlying operating margins as a company, and that represents 110 basis point improvement versus prior year. Another way to look at it, as you look at EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 16.3%, again, a 110 basis point improvement, if you also adjust out for the divestiture gain that we had in last year's second quarter. When you look at adjusted EPS, it increased 26%; again, excluding the divestiture gain that we had last year and the new tax legislation was a $225 million net one time negative adjustment, Cathy will go through that in more detail in her comments. So we look at cash and capital deployment, our goal is to be great generators and deployers of cash. You have heard me talk about that before, it's really an overarching team of the company, and we remain on track to deliver significant cash flow over the next several years. When you look at the new U.S. tax reform; clearly in the quarter, it was a negative one-time adjustment. However, many long term positives for us to create some more competitive environment, really levels of playing field with our foreign competitors. This creates a nice share gain opportunity for us. It's going to encourage our customers' investment decisions, because the way CapEx is treated in the new tax law. It's clear we are going to encourage CapEx and in turn, will drive through more [indiscernible] content as part of that. And then there is greater flexibility and we are building within cash around the world, which is a big advantage for shareholders. So when you think about deployment priorities, they really remain the same. However, we have greater flexibility obviously. So first on the list is continuing our history of increasing annual dividends paid. So maybe, that will clarify why that is so important to us. So obviously, our longstanding record is important; we don't want to break that. But really speaks to our ability over the cycle to consistently generate cash, which emphasizes why we are such a great long term investment for shareholders. Our target on dividends is 30% on net income over a rolling five year period of time, so obviously as our net income grows, which it will, our dividends will grow in corresponding fashion. Second priority is CapEx for organic growth, the most efficient way to deploy capital back on behalf of shareholders, so that will be on the top of the list. The beauty of our business model and our cash flow generation, when you take those first two priorities and you complete them, we have roughly half of our cash total available to deploy. So here in the near term, we are going to reduce leverage with the CLARCOR deal. We are also going to continue our 10b51 share repurchases. But then as the debt reduces, we are going to revaluate acquisitions and discretionary share repurchases, with the goal always being that we are going to deploy capital in the best long term fashion that we can, on behalf of our shareholders. I would just remind people that we utilized overseas cash to help fund CLARCOR, so we put most of that overseas cash to work already. So I am going to talk about the outlook; and may be just start with some headlines with the new guidance when I look at it from a full year. Now Safety, it's hard for me to predict a full year there, but injuries down 22%, obviously want to continue that trend. Sales up 17% versus prior year. Adjusted EPS up 21% versus prior and adjusted EBITDA margins forecasted to be 17.6% for the full year versus 16.3% last year, so that's a 130 basis points improvement, again excluding the divestiture gain we had last year. Now specifically regarding EPS, we are increasing EPS, adjusted EPS by $0.45 at the midpoint. So our new range is $9.65 to $10.05, reflects the reduction in the U.S. federal tax rate, our year-to-date results, regarding realignment in CLARCOR costs achieved, they are going to be at the same levels that we previously anticipated. So now going forward, we are going to continue to drive the Win Strategy, and I am going to just make a couple of comments about each of the goals here briefly. But engage people, still our first goal, it's all about creating that cornership [ph] culture, and I would remind people that being an owner, people think differently when they think and act like and owner, and it creates a level of intimacy and accountability with your respective area of responsibility that drives results, and I would characterize our engagement process across the company as being the water [ph] that's going to lift performance up for the whole company. Second goal is premier customer experience, and we are moving from a service mindset to an experience mindset, and we are doing that by rolling out a new metric like [indiscernible] recommend, and that's now fully deployed and we are getting great customer feedback from that and it gives us tremendous opportunity to improve. And remember, the whole purpose behind the great experience is that it leads to share gain, leads to faster growth. Third goal, profitable growth, and we have a number of initiatives which I won't go through here. All around driving growth fast than the market. And then financial performance, that's what I would call affectionately, the big four strategic initiatives, that's simplification, lean enterprise, strategic supply chain, and value pricing, and we see tremendous upside really in all four of those categories. Now we are really looking forward to seeing everybody for our Investor Relations day on March 7, so let me just give you a quick commercial on what the high level agenda is going to be. We are going to give you a progress report on the new Win Strategy. We are going to give you an update on our five year targets. We will give you a much more detailed review on the CLARCOR synergies, and we just characterize that the integration is going very well or what's happening, we will give you more color on that on IR day. And then we are going to give you presentations from three of our six operating groups, aerospace, engineering materials and filtration. First time we have given that level of transparency and detail, so I think you will enjoy that, we look forward to sharing that with you. So in summary, we are looking forward to a record year, and a continuous improvement with the Win Strategy. So with that, I am going to hand it back to Cathy for more details on the quarter.
Cathy Suever:
Okay, thanks Tom. I will now refer you to slide number 5, and begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $2.15 compared to $1.91 for the same quarter a year ago. When comparing to second quarter fiscal 2017 results, please recall that, last year included a $45 million or $0.21 per share gain on the sale of our product line, which was not adjusted out. Excluding this product line gain, adjusted earnings per share increased 26% from the same quarter last year. The respective adjustments for both years are as follows; fiscal year 2018, second quarter operating income adjustments, include business realignment expenses of $0.07 and CLARCOR cost to achieve of $0.07. This compares to $0.04 for business realignment expenses in the second quarter in fiscal year 2017. Other expense in fiscal year 2018 has been adjusted to exclude a net gain of $0.05, which includes a gain from the sale of assets, offset by the write-down of an investment. Prior year other expense was adjusted for $0.09 of acquisition related expenses. Last but not least, fiscal year second quarter 2018 has been adjusted for the net one time impact from U.S. tax reform of $225 million or $1.65. I will discuss this adjustment in more detail on slide 13. If you move now to slide number 6, you will find a significant component of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.91 for the second quarter of fiscal 2017 to $2.15 for the second quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.62, attributable to earnings on meaningful organic growth, income from acquisitions and increased margins, as a result of our new Win Strategy initiative. I'd like to point out that this $0.62 improvement is net of incremental depreciation and amortization expense of $0.16 taken on with the CLARCOR acquisition. The lower effective income tax rate, equated to a year-over-year increase in earnings per share of $0.07. Adjusted earnings per share was reduced by $0.31 on the other expense line, primarily due to the non-recurring $0.21 per share gain from the sale of a product line included in the prior year. Higher interest expense was an $0.11 drag, together with slightly higher corporate G&A and share count, equating to a $0.03 per share reduction. Moving to slide 7, you will find total Parker's sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter. Total company organic sales in the second quarter increased year-over-year by 9.5%. There was a 13.3% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions, while currency, positively impacted the quarter by 3.4%. Total segment operating margin on an adjusted basis improved to 14.9% versus 14.7% for the same quarter last year. I'd like to remind you, that the fiscal 2018 operating margins include incremental depreciation and amortization from the CLARCOR acquisition. Without this incremental expense, margins would have improved 110 basis points. This margin improvement reflects the benefits of higher volume, combined with the positive impacts from our Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to slide number 8, I will discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the second quarter, North American organic sales increased by 12.7% compared to last year. Acquisitions contributed 26.3% to sales, while currency also positively impacted the quarter. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.1% of sales versus 16.6% in the prior year. Current year includes 160 basis points of CLARCOR related incremental depreciation and amortization expense. Without this, margins improved 110 basis points. I will continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 9. Organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 10.7%. Acquisitions positively impacted sales by 6%, while currency, positively impacted the quarter by 8.1%. Operating margin for the second quarter on an adjusted basis was 14.2% of sales versus 13.1% in the prior year. This includes 40 basis points of Parker related incremental depreciation and amortization expense. I will now move to slide number 10, to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 0.8% for the second quarter. Strengths in both commercial and military aftermarket, more than offset weakness in OEM activity during the quarter. Operating margin for the second quarter adjusted for realignment costs saw 16% of sales versus 13.5% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of a favorable aftermarket sales mix and lower development costs during the quarter. Moving to slide 11, we show the details of order rates by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12 month rolling average. Total orders continue to be strong, improving to a positive 13% for the quarter end. This year-over-year improvement is made up of 15% from Diversified Industrial North American orders, 13% from Diversified Industrial International Orders and 8% from Aerospace Systems Orders. On slide 12, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $460 million or 6.8% of sales, compared to 7.5% of sales for the same period last year or 11.5% last year adjusted for a $220 million discretionary pension contribution. The significant capital allocations year-to-date have been $176 million for the payment of shareholder dividends, $145 million or 2.2% of sales for capital expenditures and $100 million for the company's 10b51 repurchases of common shares. On slide 13, I will now take a moment to discuss the impact of U.S. tax reform. In the second quarter, we incurred a net $225 million charge, that includes a $287 million one-time charge for the deemed repatriation of non-U.S. earnings, offset by a favorable $62 million adjustment to our net deferred tax liabilities to the new 21% federal rate. I need to mention, that these onetime adjustments are our best estimates at this time, however the amounts may change, as we continue to analyze the impact of tax reforms. Due to our June 30 fiscal year, our statutory U.S. tax rate for fiscal year 2018 is blended at a 35% rate for the first half of the year, and a 21% rate for the second half of the year, which results in a 28% full year U.S. statutory rate. This reduced rate will have a favorable impact on cash for fiscal year 2018. As for the long term implications, the U.S. tax reform will result not only in increased net income, but we can benefit from improved mobility of our non-U.S. cash. The payments of the deemed repatriation charge will commence in fiscal year 2019, where it will be a use of cash over eight years with significant balloon payments from the last three years. Based on our initial analysis, we expect our long term effective tax rate to be approximately 23% beginning in fiscal year 2019. Fiscal year 2018 is still a blended rate. The full year earnings guidance for full year 2018 is outlined on slide number 14. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and adjusted basis. Total sales increases are expected to be in the range of 15.3% to 18.9% as compared to the prior year. Anticipated full year organic growth at the midpoint is 6.5%, which is a 100 basis points higher than our previous guidance. Acquisitions in the guidance are affected to positively impact sales by 8.1% and currency is expected to have a positive 2.5% impact on sales. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended December 31, 2017, we have held those rates steady, as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2018. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.3% and 15.7%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.1% and 16.5%. Full year tax rate is now projected to be 25%, down from our previous guidance of 28%. For the full year, the guidance range on an as-reported earnings per share basis is now $7.38 to $7.78 or $7.58 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $9.65 to $10.05 or $9.85 at the midpoint. In addition to the full year net loss of $5 million resulting from the combined gain on sale and writedown of assets and the net provisional tax charge of $225 million, this guidance on an adjusted basis, excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $58 million for the full year fiscal 2018. Savings from business realignment initiatives are projected to be $25 million. In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $52 million of CLARCOR cost to achieve expenses. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to be $58 million in fiscal year 2018. We continue to remain on pace to realize the forecasted $140 million run rate synergy savings for CLARCOR by fiscal year 2020. Savings from all business realignment and CLARCOR costs to achieve, as well as anticipated full year favorable effects from U.S. tax reform, are fully reflected in the as reported and the adjusted guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2018 guidance at the midpoint are; sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 45% first half, 55% second half. Adjusted earnings per share, first half second half is divided 45%, 55%. Third quarter fiscal 2018 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.59 at the midpoint, and this excludes $0.08 of projected business realignment expenses and $0.09 of projected CLARCOR costs to achieve. On slide 15, you will find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year 2018 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $9.85 at the midpoint compared to the prior guidance of $9.40 per share. Increases include $0.14 from higher segment operating income, $0.41 from a lower effective tax rate, and $0.01 from lower projected corporate G&A. Offsetting these increases is an $0.08 per share decrease from higher forecasted interest and other expense, and $0.03 per share from increased fully diluted share count. Please remember, that the forecast includes any acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2018. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I will turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Cathy. So we are pleased with the strong first half of the year that we have had. A combination of our sales growth, the lower cost structure that we have built, integration of CLARCOR and execution of the Win Strategy, that combination is projecting for us to have the best fiscal year that we have ever had in the history of the company, with an all time sales record. So my thanks to everybody around the world Parker team for all your hard work and efforts into creating that. So at this point, let me hand it back to Kevin. We will start the Q&A part of the call.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Can you maybe -- let's just touch on the North American margins for a second. Clearly, it's going to be the pretty big focal point today. And you guys have talked a little bit about the impact from the CLARCOR and dilutive impact that's having to your margins. But did that number change at all on a quarter-by-quarter basis, because the margins were down a little bit more this quarter than they were in the prior quarter? And then my follow on there is, can we maybe just talk a little bit more about like the other potential puts and takes to margins and what impacted them this quarter?
Tom Williams:
Okay, so Joe, this is Tom. Maybe to help everybody, I am going to run through the margins and give you back the incremental D&A, depreciation and amortization, when we have no CLARCOR deal. Cathy did that and I am going to summarize it again just so you have it. So North America, if you add that back, the 160 basis points of incremental depreciation and amortization, North America's operating margin for the quarter would have been 16.7%. International, you add back 40 basis points, international's margins would have been 14.6%. Aerospace, obviously not impacted, 16.0%. Total Parker, you add back 90 basis points, 15.8%. So when you look at it all in, North America still was higher by 10 basis points versus prior year. There are some challenges that we have faced in the quarter and faced a little bit when you just look at the mix of order entry and sales that we have. When you look at our -- we are tickled pink with our sales growth. But then, the mobile part of the sales growth is drawing at a faster clip than industrial and distribution. So we have got mobile growth at approximately 20% for the quarter, Industrial, high single digits, and distribution in the low teens. So that mix is putting a little bit of margin headwind for us, and we had a number of plant closures, and when you look at our restructuring; restructuring dollars are not always at equal level of complexity. You know, if you close down a headquarters, like when we closed down Franklin, it's a little more straightforward as -- as the headquarters for CLARCOR, for those of you who aren't familiar. It's a little more straightforward, as far as how you incur those costs. We are right now in the heat of the restructuring for CLARCOR, in particular, around the manufacturing footprint consolidations. So to give you some color in it, so plant closures last year, 23 plant closures for the total company. This year, 39. So that level of plant closures, and there is inefficiencies that you are impacted by both ends of that equation. So plant A that's getting closed down, obviously has some impact when you announce it. Things don't work quite as well, if you have announced the plant closure. And then plant B, is it's coming up to speed in efficiencies that yields line rates, etcetera, just take a little bit of time to come up. So we have incurred all that and the margins still grew 10 basis points. Again, making it apples-to-apples the depreciation and amortization. But that gives you some color as to some of the dynamics that we are feeling from a margin standpoint.
Joe Ritchie:
That's helpful Tom. I guess maybe the follow-on there is, is this quarter then the trough from -- that we should expect from like -- from an inefficiency perspective, from the plant closure perspective, or is this something that could potentially be a headwind to North America margins for the next couple of quarters?
Tom Williams:
Well it's in our guide, North American margins for the full year at 17.2% for the full year, which is a pretty nice performance, with all of this. But yes, because we are right now in the thrills of this, we experienced it this quarter, we probably are going to see for the next two quarters. Remember, this is a three year synergy plan that we were laying out. The bulk of it, the heavy lifting from a footprint standpoint is this last quarter we just experienced really the next six months. But even with all that, we have got margins at very nice levels. EBITDA, which is a nice way to look at it, because it takes out the depreciation and amortization, growing to 17.6% versus 16.3% last year. I guess, I would just remind everybody, when we announced the deal, December 1 of 2016, not that I remember that date [indiscernible], that's an important date for the history of the company. We announce -- we were to tackle a 300 basis point EBITDA margin improvement. And at that time when we made the announcement, we were sitting at 14.7% EBITDA margin. So we have almost accomplished that 290 basis points. Remember we told you 300 bps was a five year look in the combined company. So we have done it basically in two years almost. So I am very proud of what we have done from a margin standpoint. We have a few of those challenges that I just mentioned, but we are putting up some pretty nice numbers in the further heat [ph] of the CLARCOR synergy plan.
Joe Ritchie:
That's helpful. If I could maybe sneak in one more, just on -- again, just the kind of end of the calendar year. We have been hearing from some of our companies that because organic growth surprised to the upside and clearly, like the growth in North America was extremely strong, that there were higher rebates as well to distributors that flushed out in the fourth quarter -- least accounted the fourth quarter. Did you guys experience any of that, just given 50% of your business sells through distribution?
Lee Banks:
This is Lee. You know, we did have great sales during the quarter and order entry continues to accelerate. But there is nothing meaningful regarding rebates or anything that's factored in to what you have seen.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay, got it. Thanks guys. I will get back in queue.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Joe.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan.
Ann Duignan:
Hi. Good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Ann.
Ann Duignan:
[Indiscernible] my question has been answered, it would have been on the North American margins. So the color was top [indiscernible] at least. Maybe switching gears a little bit to Aerospace, can you talk about your mix of business today, and where do you see that going? If I recall, you are pretty strong than the 747, pretty strong than the A380, I mean programs that might be ending, and also very strong with Embraer and whether your relationship with Embraer would change, if Boeing were to acquire Embraer. So just little bit of background on the Aerospace business please?
Cathy Suever:
Ann, I will start out. In the quarter, we had an unusually strong mix of aftermarket, both commercial and military. And that came with higher margins, since our aftermarket typically has higher margins, but it was also a very favorable mix of aftermarket. It was a little unusual in the quarter, however in the third quarter, we see our strongest aftermarket activity. So third quarter should be a similar mix, but it's not necessarily a full year mix that we would normally see. Yeah, we have platforms that are slowing down. Wide body, we see a lot of slowness in the market. But keep in mind, that we are very diverse in our portfolio, and there are also new programs coming on. So as some of them are shutting down or slowing down, we are also seeing growth in like the A350 and in platforms like the Global 5000. So I think our portfolio mix helps balance the impact that you are describing, and you won't see a significant impact.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. So you are suggesting that fiscal Q3 should be strong margins and then taper off? Is that what I should read in the near term?
Cathy Suever:
The Q3 tends to be our strongest quarter for aftermarket. It's when the OEs, the large airlines are typically having the planes brought in for a repair. So three will be good, yes.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I will leave it there and get back in queue. Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
All right. Thanks Ann.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO.
Joel Tiss:
Hey guys, how is it going?
Cathy Suever:
Hi Joel.
Joel Tiss:
I will just glue both of my questions together. I just wonder if, maybe Tom or whoever, if you could talk a little bit about -- it seems like the order strength is a lot higher than what you are hinting at earlier in the year for your second half? I think your implied order growth was pretty close to flat, and I just wondered why more of that? Is there anything happening that would undercut your confidence on the sustainability of that? And second if Lee could just kind of run around the world and give us some of the highlights of the different businesses? Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Okay, Joel. I will start off -- this is Tom, and I will hand it to Lee in a second here. On the order entry, I think in our sales forecast; so we revised our guidance, basically up 100 basis points on organic from 5.5 to 6.5, kept acquisitions, kept currency, same assumptions. So the new guide, up 100 bps. In the second half in particular, we have raised it from the previous guide, it was 3.7% to 5.0%. So that's what we are forecasting for the second half of the year. And I would just remind everybody, we don't feel anything weakening from a macro standpoint, Lee will cover that momentarily. We feel good about the macro markets and all that. Our sales numbers sort of based on the comps we have versus the prior year last year, second half of FY 2017 plus 6% organic growth. So our plus 5% forecast is building on top of the plus 6%. So that's just the comparable math -- the mix of the numbers. We feel good about the macro conditions. I will let Lee kind of take you through the world.
Lee Banks:
Joel, it's Lee. So I am not going to comment on Aerospace. I think Cathy did a great job on that. I would just say industrially, as you look through all our end markets, it's really hard to find any significant markets did not continue to show positive year-over-year order entry growth during the quarter. And some of these markets fall a long way, especially when it comes to natural resource end markets. And they continue to show growth during the quarter. We saw strong growth in construction equipment, mining, oil and gas, which is mostly land based, almost all land based, frankly. And then other markets like semiconductor, microelectronics, heavy duty truck and distribution was strong. Land based oil and gas, if I think about the Americas, the amount of active rigs continue to expand, and I think what's really positive is, we are starting to see quote activity with some customers that we haven't seen much in the past. So they are doing more than just refurbishing what's in the field. We also saw a great continued rebound from our distributor partners around the world. Almost every region, double digit order entry, which is really nice, and they continue to be very optimistic. The only notable market that we see contraction in and it has been significant has been large frame power jet. I mean, that has gotten a lot of press and it's real, so that has had a negative impact. And just commenting on the regions, I won't take you through all the markets. But North America continue to be very encouraged by all the increasing end market activity. It just seems that it's somewhat firing on all cylinders. I think there is some worry about maybe in-plant automotive activity, but we haven't seen much dampening on that yet, but we are keeping an eye on that. Throughout EMEA, continued strong order entry growth, this would be the second year, we are forecasting organic growth, in which there was a long trough there, we didn't see that. And then in Asia, Japan, Korea, China continue all to be very strong, Southeast Asia is really good, so I am encouraged by what's happening there. And then just lastly on Latin America, it seems that there is some good positive momentum in Brazil, despite all the politics. So we are hopeful, there continues the turnaround. So I would just say, we are really happy with what's happening in the Embraer, it's both domestically and internationally, and I think in some cases, we are pretty early stages, because of how far some of those industries have fallen.
Joel Tiss:
That's really super. Thank you.
Tom Williams:
Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Joel.
Operator:
Our next question comes from John Inch with Deutsche Bank.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Hi John.
John Inch:
Cathy, hi. The tax rate was a little lower in the second quarter. I don't think you talked about it. What was that about?
Cathy Suever:
Sure. So let me just reiterate for the year. We expect it to be 25%. We are at a 28% blended rate for U.S. federal. In December, we adjusted everything to that new blended rate. So as part of that, you do a catch-up of what you had booked provisionally in the first quarter, and you catch up the year for the six months to your assumed effective rate for the full year. So you get a little bit of a double benefit in December from the lower tax rate for the year.
John Inch:
So even though tax -- okay. So I am just trying to understand, tax reform though is a calendarized impact. You are saying, this is actually a function of tax reform, is that what you are saying?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah, correct. It was effective January 1, but for us, it become half effective. So what they require us to do, is take the number of days that we would be at a 35% rate, and the number of days we'd be at a 21% rate, and that come to a 28% effective rate for our full fiscal year.
John Inch:
Okay, that makes more sense. I got it. Thank you. What about the mix of orders? Tom, you talked about stronger OE and that's -- you talked about the ramp down I guess, in terms of the plants, but the stronger OE is sort of pricing [ph] margins a little bit to the downside. Is that embedded in the mix of orders that you are seeing, so we would expect that kind of OE mix to still prevail over the coming quarters?
Tom Williams:
John, it's Tom. Yes, it would and that's what factored into our guidance, part of why we left margins, the same as our prior guide, because of that. But over time, that's going to start to stabilize. And those things, the high spike and mobile activities is going to start to stabilize at a lower number, and I think this imbalance, I guess, [indiscernible] order entry, shift a little bit more to mobile, become more in check, as we go throughout the next several quarters.
John Inch:
Right. So mobile is clearly accelerating and I think you could make that claim globally. What's happening with respect to distribution then, at the high single digit? I think you called out that run rate, is that actually accelerating at a lesser cadence, or is it sort of steady?
Tom Williams:
I wouldn't characterize. I am going to let Lee chime in -- as in, add. Distributions in the low teens is what it's at. But I would characterize it as stable. High levels of growth [ph] stable, and it will glide down into something in the mid-single digits in the second half, mainly just because of comps in the prior year.
John Inch:
CLARCOR also, I think we took your guide from what $0.20 to $0.33, was that all tax? Or is the business actually getting better?
Cathy Suever:
I am sorry, I didn't quite understand what you are asking John?
John Inch:
The EPS accretion from CLARCOR. I calculated, it looks like it is about $0.33 for fiscal 2018, and I thought you had said it was going to be about $0.20. Maybe that's not true. I am just wondering, are you expecting CLARCOR accretion benefits to improve from what you had last said, I think last year, right?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah John. We are still at about a $0.20 accretion for CLARCOR for fiscal 2018.
John Inch:
Fiscal 2018? Okay.
Cathy Suever:
Yeah.
John Inch:
Last I guess, just wanted to ask Tom just a strategic question. Is there an opportunity to maybe migrate? If you look at the -- your sort of a distribution of your customers, maybe some of your smaller ones at the tail, is there an opportunity to migrate those in your OE bucket, more to the distribution side to perhaps free up some of your own overhead that other operating costs, you know what I mean to, try and drive further Parker-Hannifin productivity over time?
Tom Williams:
Clearly John, you hit the nail on the head. What you are referring to is really part of our simplification program, and the element in particular, as you talked about, was the revenue complexity side of things, that 80-20 will look at all of our revenue and our products. And clearly, when we look at that tail, that's one of the areas we are looking at, and we moved some of that product to distribution, so distributors would do a better job of servicing the customers in that regard, could we look at self-service there, can we look at alternative part numbers that might be higher running part numbers that runs at a plant. So there's a variety of tools that we are looking at, but yes, you nailed one of the things we are looking at.
John Inch:
And is that -- I am assuming like, where are you at in terms of beginning to implement that? Is this still very preliminary, or have you actually started? Just [indiscernible], obviously you have done a great job with respect to the margin expansion that you called out, so we are all trying to think about the next level, and we can obviously compare Parker versus ITW or other companies with higher margins. So the thought process is really around just various levers you may be able to pull over time, to help drive your overall profitability higher from here?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, we see more opportunity obviously, and that's something we will go into more detail at IR Day. But when I think about simplification, lean, strategic supply chain, value pricing, all those things underneath the financial performance initiatives, I would characterize them as all having lots of upside. The revenue complexity piece that we just were talking about, the first inning, clearly the first inning. So lots of upside there.
John Inch:
Got it. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks John.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Andrew Obin:
Hi guys. Good morning still I guess.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Andrew.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on -- [indiscernible], just a question on international margins, just in your outlook, you are actually modeling them now a little bit lower than before, and I was wondering if that's the impact of mobile mix and what else is going on there? Is the dynamic there similar to what you guys are seeing in North America?
Tom Williams:
Yeah Andrew, it's Tom. It would be the mobile mix, because most of our heavy plant closures are in North America. A little bit in Europe, but North America is stealing more of the plant closures. So Europe, the international piece, we change the guide by 10 bps, and it's mainly the mobile mix.
Andrew Obin:
And just a question in terms of dealing with high volumes and maybe this is sort of a three-pronged question; just focused on distributors, do they need to change their behavior, do you have enough capacity, and finally, working capital impact? Just because volumes are going up a lot faster than you guys thought?
Lee Banks:
Andrew, it's Lee. I think if I understood your question, is we have to do anything different to handle the --
Andrew Obin:
That's exactly right. And working capital requirements, exactly.
Lee Banks:
No. I'd say from a working capital requirement standpoint, obviously when you have a huge influx in business in tax receivables for a period of time. But I would say, the biggest working capital requirements we have had throughout the quarter, really the first half of the year, have been with all these plant closures. So there has been a conscious build of inventory in some areas that we don't impact your customers. I would say with revenue, with our OEM customers, there is nothing that we do differently. Some of these customers, we categorize our products with high runners, running through the shop, and distribution would follow many times too in the same category. So there would be nothing different, it's just the level of activity would heighten up with the value streams running -- not at capacity, but running a lot higher demand than they have run in the past.
Andrew Obin:
Good problems to have. Thanks a lot.
Lee Banks:
Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Andrew.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse.
Jamie Cook:
Hi, good morning. I guess two questions, one, in the quarter, and guess as you look at your -- the remainder of the year, are there any different assumptions around price costs or your ability to get price in a market? Can you just talk about how that's going? And then my second question, sorry, back to North America Industrial; Tom, I appreciate the comments you had made about CLARCOR in closing or plants and stuff like that, and that will impact margins or incrementals over the next two quarters. But as we shift to fiscal year 2019, with most of that done, can we start to think about North America achieving more normalized incremental margins, or given where we'd be in the cycle, could you get above average incremental margins, versus your longer term target? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Jamie, it's Tom. I will start with your last question and I will let Lee talk about price costs. So yes, once we get through a lot of this heavy lifting, we would expect things to normalize. The other part that's going to help us, once we anniversary CLARCOR and we can look at the total company, apples-to-apples, it's going to be lot easier, and our Q4 is the first time when we get apples-to-apples and even with all the plant closures in that, which will still be happening in Q4, we see that getting to the 30% MROS type of level. So yes, the short answer is, you will see us get back to normal type of marginals. So I will let Lee talk about -- go ahead Jamie.
Jamie Cook:
Sorry, no. Just to clarify, so 30% or given where you are in the cycle and what some of the restructuring could we theoretically do better than that? Because 30%, I would assume is like more your normalized, but given their structuring and you are still early in the cycle, I would think you know, because it would still be the back half of calendar year 2018? [indiscernible] we could do better than that?
Tom Williams:
Well, the number I gave of 30% in Q4 is with all that noise and all the plant closures, with the mobile mix not necessarily helping us. So I think [indiscernible] to the underlying marginals at a pretty high level.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you, Tom.
Lee Banks:
Then Jamie, on price costs, I would tell you that there clearly is inflation on the horizon. I mean, you can see materials indexes, we have seen it in copper, we have seen it [ph] etcetera. We have been through these cycles before. I would say at this point in time, from a price cost standpoint at a corporate level we are good. But we are definitely taking actions to stay ahead of this, as we go forward.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. That's helpful. Thanks. I will get back in queue.
Lee Banks:
Thank you.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Jamie.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
I am going to beat the North American margin horse one more time. Tom, you talked about the facility closures, up from 20 to -- or 23 to 39 this year. Is it possible for you to quantify the impact of the disruption that that's had, need to build inventory, that kind of stuff? And are you going to be backed down to -- I don't know, 23 in 2019, will you be done through this? What's the kind of stepdown in the facility closures that you are looking out for 2019?
Tom Williams:
For 2019, so we haven't worked all of that. But clearly the bulk of the CLARCOR activity will be through. There might be some residual things that we are doing, plant closures on CLARCOR in 2019. But we haven't [indiscernible] what the rest of the business at that point. But clearly, this is a spike in plant closures with them. Now we have a rule, strict policy in how they count for making adjustments, and so, we only count adjustments that you can put clear plant closure costs on, severance, and those kind of things. So we don't try to add up manufacturing efficiencies and production rates and yields and all that kinds of things. And to be honest with you, I would be just giving you a number that would be [indiscernible] and wouldn't be a good factual number. But I think anybody that has closed the plant, knows exactly what I am talking about, and you feel it on the sending plant and you feel it on the receiving plant. So it is real and typically any plant closure, even a well laid out plant closure, feels that for three to six months. And so that's -- we are in the middle of that. We fully expected that this is the biggest acquisition we have ever done, with the largest synergies we have ever done, and we feel very good about it. But you are kind of right now in the heat of the battle. The supply chain savings, SG&A, logistics, those are more straightforward. If I was to characterize, it's like the slope of a treadmill, those are at a lower slope; when you close a lot of factories, it's a higher slope of the treadmill, and I would just commend the teams, that I know are listening to this. Closing these number of factories, and what we have done from a margin standpoint, taking care of customers, is really terrific work what the team is doing.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Then my follow-up is on one of your prepared comments, where you said you feel that the change in the tax bill would open up share gain opportunities for you, and drive customer CapEx. Can you maybe talk a little bit more about where you see those share gain opportunities? And I know it's very early on the customer CapEx side, but maybe what your expectations are on that front?
Tom Williams:
Yeah Nathan, it's Tom again. The CapEx is just a general comment. If you encourage people what the kind of tax laws, with an immediate expensing for tax purposes of CapEx for the next five years. That has to be somewhat additive to the current macro environment. So I take a current, very favorable macro environment, add that encouragement there, and I think it bodes well for CapEx in general. How it all plays through, and exactly what areas, that's yet to be determined. But we feel good about that. As far as the gaining share, the point there is, we have a number of foreign competitors, which I won't highlight, which have had a distinct advantage forever. And now that we have a level playing field, I like our chances. I like our chances going toe-to-toe with them with a level playing field, and I will bet on us any day of the week. So that's how I was referring to the share gain, is that we don't have one arm behind our back any more, and let the better person win the order.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Nathan.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Jeff.
Jeff Sprague:
A lot of talk obviously about integration and plant closures CLARCOR related. I am wondering now if you step back and look at the CLARCOR footprint, you have also done a lot of restructuring here over the last several years, and now we are hitting a pretty big business inflection. How do you feel about the footprint right now, actually adequacy of the footprint than what's the trajectory of your own CapEx looking like the next year or two?
Tom Williams:
Jeff, it's Tom. I think our CapEx will continue to be about 2% of sales. We have been running at 1.7% to 2% range, and I would see it at that level, and I will expand a little bit more upon that at IR Day, kind of more of a strategic thought on that. As far as the restructuring going forward, let me just make one comment to kind of calibrate people as to what we have done with the restructuring of the company, and I will start with prophesizing this that there is a lot more that we can do. But anyhow; we are going to have a circle for the first time in the history of the company, hopefully with this guidance crossing $14 billion. So it makes you go back and look, well okay, what was the last all time high at the company, and how many people did we have? So the last all time high was $13.2 billion in FY 2012 and we had 59,000 team members. So with those guidance, where basically round numbers are going to be $1 billion higher than that, and we are going to have 2,500 fewer people than we had at that peak. So an extra billion of revenue, 2,500 fewer people. So clearly speaks to what we have been doing, as far as the efficiencies and the structure of the company. I would just reiterate, like I said at the beginning that we still see opportunities to continue to improve that, and it still is big four that I referenced, simplification, lean, supply chain and value pricing, as margin enhancements. I doubt that we will continue to be at $110 million clip on our structure, and I think it's going to stabilize at some level. But I don't think it will be big. You have looked at this historically before the new win strategy, we have been in that $20 million to $30 million type of range in restructuring, and I would see us being a little bit higher than that; because I think there is still opportunities for us to continue to simplify the structure of the company, make it faster on behalf of our customers, and we are going to continue to work that.
Jeff Sprague:
And then just briefly on M&A; obviously you are deleveraging and divesting [indiscernible] here still primarily. But do you see bolt-ons coming into your view, anywhere in the portfolio, and maybe in filtration in particular?
Tom Williams:
Yeah. M&A is obviously something that we stay in -- again, it's Tom -- we stay engaged with this all the time; because the relationship building is important to do, whether you are in a position to deploy capital towards that or not. So we have that, we have the strategic candidates that we would like to add to the portfolio, and where it fits and complements our strategy, and we are working that every day, every week. So as we start to glide down, like I mentioned earlier, our debt position, we will clearly look at that. And if I was to characterize our portfolio strategy; first, we want to be a consolidator of choice. So if it is in our space, we'd like to be at bet [ph]. Doesn't mean we will swing, but we'd like to be at bet [ph] to take a look. But all things being equal, we'd like to invest more into Filtration, Engineered Materials, Aerospace And Instrumentation part of the portfolio for a lot of strategic reasons; margins, resilience, to recycle, grow the capabilities, and those type of things. So that would be a little bit of color behind the M&A strategy.
Jeff Sprague:
Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Jeff.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Can you just -- you talked about some of the disruption, but can you speak to kind of how you are thinking about CLARCOR cost synergy savings second half versus first half?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah. We are going to have $58 million of savings that we enjoyed this year in fiscal 2018. About 35% of that went in the first half, and we expect 65% of that in the second half.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great. And then just -- Tom, you mentioned kind of the debt paydown, what's kind of the updated timing, where you start to transition away debt reduction?
Tom Williams:
Well, there is no formal timeline, a lot of it is contingent upon opportunities that present themselves, as we are looking at that. But we'd like to get closer to two times EBITDA multiple, and we started off at 3.5, when we first did the deal, and currently at 2.9. So we are making good progress, and we want to continue to demonstrate that, and when we think we are in a better position from a debt standpoint, then we will start to look again.
Cathy Suever:
Jeff, I will add on to that. We do have some term debt at $450 million due in the fourth quarter of 2018 and $100 million due in the first quarter of 2019. So you can count on that term debt being liquidated.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Okay, I think we have time for one more question please.
Operator:
Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Wolfe Research.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for letting me in.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just to maybe come full circle on all the North American margin questions; I know that there are usually some corporate true-up that happened in the second quarter, as is seasonally always the case. Did those look any different than normalized? I know we have beaten it [ph] at this point, but I just [indiscernible]?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah Josh. Let me point out that, the majority of the impact from those true-ups from incentive comps, hits down below the line, when you are looking at segments, it's down in corporate G&A. We did have adjustments, but not anything unusual compared to other years in this quarter. So I don't think that that was a driver of what you are looking at, and it's not a margin impact.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got you. And then just on the tax rate, I guess all that implies in the second half, but still above the 25%, just given how you had a lower first half? How should we think about kind of the go forward, more of an annualized or fiscal 2019, however you want to think about it rate? Is it still kind of just 26.5% or are you really at 25%, once we get through all the initial payments?
Cathy Suever:
Yeah. Let me step through, so for fiscal 2018, we are at a statutory U.S. rate of 28%. We blend that with our international rates, that gets us to about -- with all the other discretes that have come through so far, we are estimating a 25% rate for this year. Starting in fiscal 2019, we will be at a true 21% statutory rate for U.S., so that will lower our rate. We anticipate our ongoing rate starting in 2019 and forward to be closer to 23%.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Got you. That's helpful color. Appreciate that.
Cathy Suever:
Okay, you're welcome. All right thanks Josh. All right. That concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thank you for joining us today. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have further questions. Thanks everybody. Have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Catherine Suever - EVP, Finance & Administration and CFO Thomas Williams - Chairman and CEO Lee Banks - President and COO
Analysts:
Adam Farley - Stifel Nicolaus Joel Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs David Raso - Evercore ISI Andy Casey - Wells Fargo Securities Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Dillon Cumming - Morgan Stanley Neil Frohnapple - Buckingham Research Timothy Thein - Citi Research Steve Volkmann - Jefferies
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q1 2018 Parker-Hannifin Corp. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, you may begin.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, Chelsea. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's first quarter fiscal year 2018 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Williams will provide highlights for the first quarter of fiscal year 2018. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's first quarter performance, together with the guidance for the full year fiscal 2018. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 4, as Tom will get us started with the highlights.
Thomas Williams:
Thanks Cathy, and good morning to everybody and thanks for joining the call, we appreciate your interest in Parker. So let me just make a few comments about general business conditions and we will talk about the quarter. So first on safety, that continues to be a top priority for the company. [Analysis] is the right thing to do obviously, but the focus on safety is driving an increased engagement from our people, which is in turn driving safety improvements across the company which is also impacting our operational improvements across the company as well, so I'm very encouraged by all of that. You saw the announcement on orders, broad based increase across markets and regions. The organic growth was greater than industrial production growth for the last three quarters in a row so we're excited about that. The Win Strategy initiatives continue to generate improvements in both growth and operating margins. If I would characterize business confidence in general, feedback from our customers [indiscernible] a very positive, so there is a nice general business confidence out there from an environmental standpoint. So it's actually been about two years, since we announced and introduced the new Win Strategy, so thought I will reflect back. I know it's kind of hard to imagine since it's been two years, but a lot has happened in two years. I think back the two years ago, we're in debt or pretty tough industrial climate, actually our second biggest down turn in sales in the history of the company and we performed better than we ever hard in any previous downturn. But if you're looking for evidence on whether the new Win Strategy is working, I think if you look at the results of the last two years, I think it is clear and objective evidence that the strategy is working, you can see the numbers. The good news for all of our people who are listening, the people within Parker and our shareholders, this is still early days of implementation. There is lots of upside with the new Win Strategy and we're excited about that. So I wanted to say first of all thank you to all the Parker team members around the world for the great progress after two years from the launch and for being a partner in creating the new Win Strategy because when we went around and introduced it, they were a big part of creating the strategies that we're now rolling out. So let's move on to the quarter, great start, it's always nice to come out of blocks well. Starting with safety as we normally do, 24% reduction in recordable injuries which was great performance. And you look at the key performance metrics for the quarter, fully solid performance across all those, the sales was a first quarter record for us up 23%, organic growth slightly above 7%, order rates increased at double-digits and this is the highest level of order growth that we've had for a quarter, since Q4 of fiscal 2011. The segment operating margins continue to make nice improvements and EPS for the quarter that was a first quarter record as well. When you look at the change in the EPS, EPS increased 36% as reported and 48% on an adjusted basis, so really nice increases there and we are on track to deliver strong operating cash flow going forward. So just a quick comment or two on capital deployment priorities; so dividends continues to be our number one focus, increasing the dividends and maintaining our long standing track record of dividend increases. We're going to continue to invest in organic growth with our CapEx, it's the most efficient way to grow the company and we're going to maintain the 10b5-1 plan that we have in place for a consistent share buyback program and we're continuing to focus on bringing down the debt. So I want to talk about the outlook; so outlook was increased from an adjusted EPS standpoint by $0.60 at the midpoint from $8.80 to $9.40. This reflects the first quarter [beat] that we had and increased organic growth estimates that we baked into the guidance. So for that we've increased total Parker organic growth from our previous guide at 3.7% to another new guide as 5.5% organic growth total company. So now going forward, obviously we're going to continue driving the new Win Strategy and I'm going to just make a quick comment or two about each one of the four goals, starting first with engage people. So this is really all about creating an ownership culture, because if you're an owner and if you think like an owner and act like an owner, it creates a level of intimacy, level of accountability with your area of responsibility that drives much better results. Second is premier customer experience; so we're going to focus on going from a service mindset to an experience mindset, have holistic experience interaction with our customers and our distributors. So obviously to create quality and delivery that's being easier to do business with that's being digital leaders in our space, so that's Internet of Things, the fee business those type of areas. Third goal is profit growth; so we want to grow organically faster than the market, that's the global industrial production mix. And we're doing that through our growth initiatives and the Win Strategy as well as the new incentive plan that rolled out a couple of years ago that really underpins driving that kind of behavior on growth. Fourth goal is financial performance; so 17% segment operating margins is still our focus. Growing EPS 8% year-over-year or higher. And the focus there for financial performance as well as big four initiatives we have under our new financial performance; the simplification, lean enterprise, strategic supply chain and value pricing. So one comment about CLARCOR, I'm sure it'll come up with the Q&A. Integration is going very well. Synergies are track, we've communicated to you. And really the new filtration group is really acting as one team and we're very proud of how that team has functioned and really it's one Parker team, it's no longer a separate CLARCOR or a separate Parker team, it's just one combined Parker team. So in sum, we're looking forward to and anticipating a record year. And we're really driving continues improvement across the board. And so with that I'm going to give it back to Cathy to give you more details on the quarter.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to slide number 5. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $2.24 compared to a $1.61 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of 39%. For year-over-year comparison purposes, first quarter fiscal year 2018 earnings per share have been adjusted by a total of $0.14. Operating income adjustments include business realignment expenses of $0.04 and CLARCOR costs to achieve of $0.03. The low operating income has been adjusted by $0.07 per share for a loss related to an investment. Prior year first quarter earnings have been adjusted for business realignment expenses of $0.06. On slide 6, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 for the first quarter of fiscal 2017, to $2.24 for the first quarter of this year. The most significant increase came from higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.62 attributable to earnings on meaningful organic growth, income from acquisitions and increased margins as a result of our new Win Strategy initiatives. I'd like to point out that this $0.62 improvement is net of incremental depreciation and amortization expense, taken on with the CLARCOR acquisition. A lower income tax rate due largely to the stock option expense tax credit equated to a year-over-year increase of $0.12, while lower other expense primarily due to lower pension expenses equated to a favorable $0.06. Adjusted per share income was reduced by $0.11 due to higher interest expense and $0.06 due to higher corporate G&A, primarily as a result of higher performance compensation expense. Moving to slide number 7, you'll find total Parker sales and segment operating margins for the first quarter. Total company organic sales in the first quarter increased year-over-year by 7.4%. There was a 13.9% contribution to sales in the quarter from new acquisitions, while currency positively impacted the quarter by 1.4%. Total segment operating margins on an adjusted basis improved to 16.0% versus 15.4% for the same quarter last year. I would like to remind that the fiscal year 2018 operating margins include incremental depreciation and amortization from a prior quarter acquisition, so better comparison will be the EBITDA margins. EBITDA margins for the same periods on an adjusted basis improved to 17.0% in fiscal 2018 from 15.0% in fiscal year 2017. This 200 basis points EBITDA margin improvement reflects the benefits of higher volume, combined with positive impacts from our new Win Strategy initiatives. Moving to slide number 8, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales increased by 9.7% as compared to the same quarter last year. Acquisitions contributed 26.4% to sales, while currency also positively impacted the quarter. Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 16.7% of sales versus 17.5% in the prior year. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 9. Organic sales for the first quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 11.7%, acquisitions positively impacted sales by 7.3%, while currency positively impacted the quarter by 3%. Operating margin for the first quarter on an adjusted basis was 15.7% of sales versus 14.2% in the prior year. I'll now move to slide number 10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues decreased 5.5% for the first quarter. Reduced volume in OEM sales and commercial aftermarket sales, were partially offset by strength in the military aftermarket during the quarter. Much of this reduced volume was timing related and increased year-over-year volume is anticipated for the rest of the fiscal year. Operating margin for the first quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 14.7% of sales versus 13.1% in the prior year, reflecting the impact of greater aftermarket sales mix and timing of development costs during the quarter. Moving to slide number 11, we show the details on order rates by segments. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders continue to be strong improving a positive 11% for the quarter end. This year-over-year improvement made up 10% from the Diversified Industrial North American orders, 15% from the Diversified Industrial International orders and 4% from Aerospace Systems orders. On slide number 12, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date cash flow from operating activities was $239 million or 7.1% of sales compared to 4.2% of sales for the same period last year or 12.2% last year adjusted for the $220 million discretionary pension contribution made in fiscal year 2017. The significant capital allocations year-to-date have been $88 million for the payment of shareholder dividends, $79 million or 2.4% of sales for capital expenditures and $50 million for the company's safe harbor repurchases of common shares. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2018 is outlined on slide number 13. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Total sales increases are expected to be in the range of 14.2% to 17.8% as compared to the prior year. Anticipated full year organic growth at the midpoint is 5.5%. Acquisitions in the guidance are expected to positive impact sales by 8.3% and currency is expected to have a positive 2.3% impact on sales. We have calculated the impact of currencies to spot rates as of the quarter ended September 30, 2017. We have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the remaining quarters of fiscal year 2018. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.3% and 15.7%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 16.1% and 16.5%. The full year tax rate is now projected to be 28% down from our previous guide of 29% as a result of a favorable stock option tax credits realized in the first quarter. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is now $8.45 to $9.05 or $8.75 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is now $9.10 to $9.70 or $9.40 at the midpoint. In addition to the loss related to the sale of an investment of $14 million or $0.07 per share, this guidance on an adjusted basis excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $58 million for the full year of fiscal 2018. Savings from business realignment initiatives are projected to be $25 million. In addition, guidance on an adjusted basis excludes $52 million of CLARCOR costs to achieve expenses. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to be $58 million in fiscal year '18. We remain on pace to realize the forecasted $140 million run rate synergy savings by fiscal year '20. Savings from all business realignment and CLARCOR costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for the full year 2018 guidance at the midpoint are, sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half; adjusted segment operating income is divided 46% first half, 54% second half; adjusted EPS first half, second half is divided 45%, 55%; second quarter fiscal 2018 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $1.96 per share at the midpoint; and this excludes $0.09 of projected business realignment expenses and $0.09 of projected CLARCOR costs to achieve. When comparing to Q2 FY '17 results, please remember that last year included $0.21 gain per share on the sale of a product line which was not adjusted out. On slide number 14, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components for fiscal year 2018 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $9.40 per share at the midpoint, compared to the prior guidance of $8.80 per share. Increases include $0.43 from stronger segment operating income, $0.16 from a reduced tax rate and $0.05 from lower projected corporate G&A. Offsetting these increases is a $0.04 per share decrease from higher interest and other expense than previously forecasted. Please remember that forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2018. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I'll turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Thomas Williams:
Thanks, Cathy. So we're very pleased with the start of the year. I think what we have going on here is a combination of couple of factors; sales growth, the lower cost structure that we have been working on past but we will continue to work on to lower even further, integration of CLARCOR and the execution of the Win Strategy. All of these forced together are combining to provide a very powerful combination that's driving us to project a record year in fiscal 2018. So again thank you to the global team for all your hard work, all your efforts and your dedication. And I want to hand it off to Chelsea to start the Q&A portion of the call.
Operator:
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Adam Farley:
Hi good morning, this is Adam Farley on for Nathan. So it looks like the -- one of the big changes in revenue guidance came from International Industrial, going out to 16.9% at the midpoint. What regions are driving this growth and what end markets are also driving the growth?
Thomas Williams:
So Adam let me start that and then hand it over to Lee to give you more details. But what's changing in our guide is just looking at order entry over the last three months. Well it was interesting order entry was pretty consistent throughout the quarter both in North America and in international. But in international particularly we saw Asia continue to be strong, Europe, Middle East and Africa region was growing in the low teens and Latin America was kind of in the low single digits. So that combination was pretty strong. Aerospace grew plus 4%, that against a pretty tough comp of plus 14%. So when you put that all in and we looked at what we were projecting for the year and our feedback from customers and distributors, we looked at -- I'm looking at Industrial only, so we raised the whole guidance for the company at 5.5%. But if you look at the Industrial piece by itself taking North America and Africa it's about 10.5% for the first half, and then 3.7% for the second half. I recognize the second half is comparing to a plus 6% that we had in the second half of FY17. So remember we really started clicking from an organic gross standpoint of January of this calendar year and so we're comparing against this but there is still pretty nice growth on top of plus 6%. So I would say that -- let Lee comment about the details here. This is broad base for every end market and every region participating. So I will let Lee give you further color.
Lee Banks:
Yeah. I think just piggy backing off Tom and maybe to give you a little added commentary on the different segments, it will continue to move in the direction we expected from the last call and order entry was really broad based and all regions participated. Maybe just walking through one of the segments just because I know the question will come up, I will start with Aerospace and then I will work my way into the Industrial markets. Aerospace did fall short of our regular expectations for Q1, but we're still forecasting growth for the year. Just breaking that down, I'd say on the headwind side, it's clearly commercial OEM was negative for us. It really was impacted by a mix of different platforms being manufactured with different [varying] amounts of content for us. But we do see that to close the gap as the fiscal year goes on. We see it being slightly negative for the year but not by much. Commercial MRO was slightly negative for us for the quarter, but we really look at this primarily as timing. All the underpinnings of a strong MRO market are still in place and we expect growth in that market as we move through the fiscal year. And then the last headwind would be military OEM was soft. Again we see this really as timing, F-35 production will continue to accelerate as the year goes on and we're confident in that market. I'd say the positive was really strong military MRO growth which put some provisioning for new platforms and then just an increase in spares for some of the fleets being used today. So that's kind of a high level on Aerospace. On Industrial, as we look through our end markets and we have a heat map by region, it's really hard to find any significant market a natural positive year-over-year order entry growth during the quarter. Really just to highlight some of those markets, if you talk about natural resource end markets we continue to see growth during the quarter. This would include agriculture in some areas but mostly construction equipment, mining very strong, oil and gas land based North America continues to be strong. I'll talk more about that in a second. Micro electronics industry is really broad based and strong. And Class A truck in North America very strong. Just a little bit about oil and gas. Rigs have nearly doubled since last year, although some did come out. But really all these rigs are coming out of cold storage and they're all being refurbished which is great for our distribution base. And we also see an appreciable pick up in quotes and order entry activities. So that continues to be very good. We're also continuing [to see] rebound activity from our distributor partners around the world. They're very optimistic. I think one of the telltale signs for me when I talk to our distributor partners, when they see an increase in project activity from end customers, that's a real sign for us that capital is starting to be a lot loose in the economy and they've all seen an increase in project work. It's not just strictly MRO work. I'd say the only notable end markets we saw around the globe, was really in power generation. This really has to do with the mix of turbines being applied today and in marine. And then just real quickly on some regional commentary. I talked about North America but we're very encouraged by the increasing end market activity. I talked about the natural resource end markets and our distributor base been very positive across the country. EMEA we continue to see strong year-over-year order entry growth. And we are forecasting a second year of organic growth for EMEA which is -- we feel really good about. And then Tom mentioned on Asia, very strong. China continues to lead with strong industrial and natural resources end markets. And then really the strength of China from our opinion has been led by continued infrastructure investment and the strong housing market. So I would just say we're encouraged by what's happening with our end markets both domestically and internationally and really there is just a very strong clear positive global sentiment to growth right now.
Adam Farley:
All right. That's great. Thank you so much. I will pass it along.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Joel Tiss:
That's going to take me a second, I was not prepared. Can you say that if CLARCOR was accretive or dilutive to the operating margins, including the amortization?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah. Joel at the beginning of the year, we gave guidance that we see $0.20 of accretion from CLARCOR for the year, we're on track for that. That includes the impact of depreciation and amortization as well as the additional interest that we are incurring because of the deal, so accretive $0.20 on the year.
Joel Tiss:
I meant on the operating margins, what was the change in the operating margins from putting CLARCOR in there?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah. They are in line with what you saw historically for CLARCOR and in line with our filtration group, so normal margins.
Joel Tiss:
Okay. And I just wondered, why the operating cash flow was down on the year-over-year? Then I am done. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Sure. First quarter is always our low quarter for cash from operations. We still expect the year to be at 10% or greater as a percent of sales. In the quarter we're building capital to match the higher volume that we're incurring. We're also building some inventory to prepare for some of the footprint moves that we are doing to integrate CLARCOR, so a little bit higher investment in working capital than unusual. But not out of the normal trends for us for first quarter and we will recover that through the rest of the year.
Operator:
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
I guess couple of questions, you sort of talked about -- sorry, the strength in the international markets. Was that all just Parker's core business or are you seeing any traction in terms of CLARCOR starting to gain some traction sort of on the international front? I guess that's my first question. And then my second question, just in terms of CLARCOR [gaining] potential revenue synergies, should we see that in '18 and how we're tracking to the savings plan that you guys laid out the $140 million?
Thomas Williams:
Okay. Jamie this is Tom. The international strength, because CLARCOR's end markets and legacy Parker end markets are the same, that's all one of the same as far as the strength that we saw across international. On the revenue synergies as I've mentioned before we have always -- we also working them hard, but we have always view them continuously to make sure we deliver on our commitment to all of our shareholders on the $140 million of synergies. Regarding the -- so on the revenue synergies, if some of you are trying to bake them into FY18, I would encourage you not to do that because even if we were going to publically disclose it, which we're not, we won't see any of that stuff realistically into FY19 anyhow. So I would just encourage you on revenue synergies to factor based on the comments we're making on end markets and regions. But on the savings target, overall $140 million, we still feel very good about that. And remember we formed these -- we've an integrated management office, we have got a great cadence around product management here. We have value creation teams all around a couple of the key synergy buckets; manufacturing, footprint, productivity, material, adjusted SG&A would be the major categories and all of them are on track. So we're very encouraged by what we've seen both the fit the technologies culturally and the projected savings. So we feel very good about them.
Jamie Cook:
And sorry just a follow-up on the end market commentary. Tom, is there any markets that you're looking at based on in terms of the markets overheating or where the strength is not sustainable?
Thomas Williams:
Jamie, [the last thing]…
Jamie Cook:
Sorry can you hear me?
Thomas Williams:
Yeah, go ahead.
Jamie Cook:
Just -- I know everything was very positive in terms of end market commentary, but are there any markets that you're concerned are overheating? A lot of the people talk about the strength in China not being sustainable. I'm just wondering for seeing any warning signs.
Thomas Williams:
Yeah. I think in general, China is not going to continue to grow at the pace that it's growing now. And we look at some macro indicators like electrical output usage and rail -- freight rail usage. And those are -- just naturally when you look at the comparables, China is going to glide from strong double digits to something that's going to be a low double digits but it's going to continue to be very good for us. But it's going to bump up against comparables that will make it -- it's going to have to glide down some more normalized type of growth plan there.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre:
Yes. Good morning everyone. And before I ask my question, just a quick word here. Tom and the team your performance has really been impressive over the last couple of years, especially the last 12 months. And that's coming from someone who has been on the sidelines on the stock. So I tip my hat to guys, great job.
Thomas Williams:
Mig before I let you ask the question, just thank you on behalf of all of us. Go ahead and ask your question.
Mig Dobre:
So here is my question. I remember last quarter one of the discussions that we had collectively was progression of organic growth and how to think about more difficult comps in the back half of the year. Looking at your order intake at least what we're seeing from this quarter is that you are able to buck those more difficult comps quite nicely. I guess from your perspective, how are you thinking about the puts and takes of these more difficult comps? Do you think the business has enough momentum to potentially ride that out?
Thomas Williams:
Mig this is Tom. On the order entry remember our -- on the Industrial portion of the business, our visibility will be typically like in that [6 to 8 week] standpoint. So obviously we have a lot more visibility and confidence in the first half of the year and going into January. So, but like I mentioned before for the first half Industrial 10.5% growth, again a little bit easier comps but that's reflective of what we did internationally -- industrially this last quarter and the order pattern that we're seeing. Then the second half is in that 3.5% range. Remember again that we had 6% organic growth the first two quarters of this calendar year, the last two quarters of our fiscal year. So I feel pretty good about that, given that on top of the 6% growth feels pretty good. Especially when we were living in a world that was negative and we all were feeling like if we got 1% or 2% growth it will be the new norm. So that kind of growth rate feels very good. It doesn't feel like we're too far over our SKUs. And then of course we'll give you an update in January, if we think there is more there than that, we'll certainly give you an update in January.
Mig Dobre:
Understood. And my follow up, maybe a little more color on the margin in Aerospace. You've called out some things that helped this quarter. Maybe help us understand exactly what's kind of changing for the rest of the year in order to get to your margin guidance?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah, Mig, I will take this one. In the quarter we saw a better mix of aftermarket just in general terms of the overall mix. We also were a little bit lighter than usual on our development costs. Now some of that was timing of the development costs, and will incur the rest of those costs during the rest of the year. We expect the development costs for Aerospace to still be around 7.5% to 7.8% sales for the year. They were lighter than that in the first quarter. And the mix of the aftermarket will shift back we think to normal trends in subsequent quarters.
Mig Dobre:
Any sense on the dollar value or margin impact from these from this cost shift, the development costs?
Catherine Suever:
The development costs roughly $10 million to $11 million light this quarter compared to the normal.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Can we talk just a little bit about CLARCOR and the integration? I mean coming into the year you have cost cuts pulling forward, costs to accelerate the integration. How should we think about that? Are we going to achieve the $140 million in synergies there, or are we going to achieve more than a $140 million? How should we think about that from our model perspective?
Thomas Williams:
Ann, this is Tom, so we're still staying with the $140 million. The one thing that I do want to at least let people know, because this is obviously a part of our question, I think some of you should have seen we posted a whole -- [save the date], for our Investor Day in the spring of next year. We picked that time because that would have marked the one year anniversary of the acquisition and we like to go in a lot more detail on how we are progressing in and what we think at that point. But $140 million still feels like the right number and with a couple of more quarters we give you at the investor update, in the spring of next year, also might be lot smarter and educate us to where we think the number is going to land.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. I appreciate that. That will take time. Most of my other questions have been answered, but would you be willing to share with us how big China is for Parker total?
Thomas Williams:
No. You know me and I probably won't be able to give you that. But you know it is our second or third largest country you know after the U.S., with Germany and China kind of competing for that second spot. But I would look at our Asia progression. It's not just the China only story. We see really good effort across the entire region, so North Asia, Korea and Japan are probably better than I can remember in a lot of years. India is having one of our better years than any. Then South East Asia is doing strong. Australia has comeback from where it was, coming off of the bottom. So for us the part I feel good about with Asia is that it's a broad based Asia story, it's not a singular China story.
Ann Duignan:
And as for better, I mean it's hard to find anything negative right now but look, [I wanted] to have sustainable as always. Is there any cloud out there that you are worried about that see, we've never seen such a coordinated recovery at top speed in the end markets before. What will you do about this?
Thomas Williams:
I think your point is spot on. It is encouraging because you right, if you look at the PMIs across the regions it's very rare in my memory where you've gotten this much strong PMI activity pretty consistently across the board. But I think this is a different I think time period for Industrials. There has been a lot of data and analysis that we've done. When you look at the last 15 years for Industrials and this is going to be maybe a long way to answer to your question the '03 to '08 time period was a really strong Industrial time period, where Industrials kind of outpaced GDP driven little because of China and the whole globalization of Industrials. Then we have the great recession '08 and to '09 and '10 starting to recover a rebound to '11. And then most Industrials somewhat treaded water from '11 to '15. And then we had the industrial recession which was really natural resource led '15 and '16 and of course we have seen a recovery now start, beginning this calendar year. My feeling is this feels and as the word common sense made at the beginning that general business conditions and the sentiment from customers and distributors feels different than the previous eras I've just described, in more like an '03 to '08, but it's not going to have the same pull that China had back in that era. So I look for Industrials to break out of their kind of treading water pattern that was in the '11 to '15. Where that finally ends up nobody -- I'm not spotting up this day but this does feels slightly different. Trees don't grow to the sky so PMIs are not going to go forever. But I think what we have [influenced] have heard of a more sustainable industrial growth that what we have may be expected. I think number one we launched the new Win Strategy, we're talking about 1.5% world. Doesn't feel like that right now, but when it lands we're all going to learn over the next several quarters and years.
Ann Duignan:
And then on that note are you seeing any labor inflation yet anywhere in the world? And I will leave it there. Thanks.
Thomas Williams:
Ann, again I will say -- I'll continue, it's Tom. No, nothing out of the norm.
Ann Duignan:
Okay appreciate. I'll get back in the queue, thanks.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
Thanks and good morning everybody.
Catherine Suever:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Maybe still with the growth rates of [Parker] clearly really strong this quarter. And I think you mentioned in your prepared comments that typically 1Q is seasonally you tend to see inventory build for you guys in 1Q which makes a lot of sense. I'm just curious like when you think about the selling versus sell through on the distributor side, maybe you can provide a little bit of a color on where you think distributor inventories are today?
Lee Banks:
Joe this is Lee. I would say last quarter we talked about a little bit of a rebound in inventory build at the distribution level. I will characterize at the distribution level and at the OEM level right now, it feels like end market pull through for the most part. People have reacted to the rapid increase in order entry and as a general statement I would say its end market pull through.
Joe Ritchie:
And then if I kind of follow it on some of the questions were asked earlier around CLARCOR and the synergy targets. One thing I noticed this quarter is that you put through I think about $6 million of costs to achieve through versus $52 million for the year. Just curious was there any reason why the spend wasn't more front end loaded just to support the synergy expectations and just once again any color on that?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah Joe this is Cathy. We did shift a little bit the timing of some of the footprint mergers that we had planned in the whole integration. And so as the costs were originally projected for the quarter those shifted more towards later in the year. However, we have some offsetting other favorable savings that are coming through earlier than we expected, so we're on track for the savings as we had predicted we would get. We're going to see about 40% of the savings in the first half and 60% of the savings in the second half for the year with about $58 million for the year.
Thomas Williams:
Joe, this is Tom, if I could just add on. In general if I were to characterize whether its CLARCOR related or just on traditional restructuring, when we do planned closures, our teams tend to be more ambitious on thinking they are going to accelerate the timing of the closure and we tend to let them run to a more aggressive target, so they can try to get things done. But we're always conservative on forecasting their savings that came from that recognizing the planned closures and the timing and all the announcements is sometimes tricky to coordinate all that. So we were conservative on the savings projections, that's why you don't see us come out with our savings for this year and the actual costs, what Q1 was like you will see that come back up in Q2, Q3 and Q4 for the rest of the year.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. That's great to hear and I know may be a last question. I know Ann just asked about wage inflation. I'm just curious whether you saw commodity inflation impact the North America margins this quarter. I know clearly there was the mix issue going on as well. But, was there any -- was there much of an impact from price costs this quarter on North America margins?
Lee Banks:
Joe, its Lee, I mean the net is no. We have seen some commodity inflations such as copper, but really where we have that is an issue where we have a lot of exposure. We have got contracts with our customers that it hits a certain level we pass that through. So that's the only really volatile one that I can think of, the others are up year-over-year but they are kind of flattened out.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI.
David Raso:
I'm just trying to think through sort of the back half of the year, the way you laid out the sequencing and the splits. It doesn't appear in the second half of the year, you're assuming really much by way of any real improvement on the year-over-year incrementals, even though by then you have anniversaried majority at least of the second half of your anniversary the CLARCOR deal. And just given the comments that you have about the order book and the breadth of it and so forth, I'm just trying to understand, am I reading that properly and if so where are we on ability to push price in this market?
Catherine Suever:
Let me adjust the margins first David. We're currently seeing it -- we're struggling to break out with good enough numbers to share with you, what legacy Parker looks like today, because we're doing a nice job integrating CLARCOR. But as we look at it internally in very rough estimates, we're anticipating still 30% incrementals for the balance of the year or for the total year for legacy Parker. So we will have CLARCOR for the full year by the end, we're being impacted by the additional amortization and depreciation expense, but we're on track to have incrementals in the low 30s.
David Raso:
Well I guess I'm just thinking the improvement, I mean if you put the all-in numbers, you're looking for a 80% incremental in the first half, and about 21% in the second half, given the natural help from anniversarying CLARCOR, I would have thought it to be a bigger improvement in the second half incrementals versus the first half? I'm just trying to think through are we not getting pricing or maybe you could give us little more color on price costs for the second half of the year. Just as people try to think of the earnings run rate exiting a fiscal year of thinking about calendar '18.
Lee Banks:
David its Lee. I would say on price costs going back to the guidance we gave. We're expecting a positive separation -- our selling price index, we forecast it ever year. We expect that to be mildly positive for the year and we expect a separation between that and our purchase price index. So we're not forecasting any wild acceleration in pricing in the second half of the year.
David Raso:
And on the second half, the slower growth rate in Industrial, you've mentioned it was largely calm. And is that actually the case in the guidance, there is really no slowdown per se in any of the end markets in the guide it's just a function of comp?
Thomas Williams:
It's Tom, David. And that's how I would characterize it.
David Raso:
All right terrific. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you, David.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Mr. Casey, your line is now open.
Andy Casey:
Sorry about that. Good morning and thanks. With the broad based strength, have you seen any supply chain constraints and if you did can you give us some color on maybe what sort of components?
Lee Banks:
Andy it's Lee. So anytime we have a ramp like this it was obviously noise. But there is nothing that I would consider to be abnormal. It's everything that we're managing through. So there is nothing I would strike out. And there is, really no components that I could strike out that are really causing us major problems right now.
Thomas Williams:
Andy this is Tom, just to tag on. One good indicator of whether we are okay or not is if you look at our total company backlog, it's basically stayed flat even with three quarters of a pretty, strong increases from the order entry standpoint. So if any of our customers are listening, we recognize we want to do better and improve to our delivery times with our customers. But we've been able to absorb this pretty strong increase and not have our backlog go up.
Andy Casey:
Okay, thank you. And then if I step back and look at the longer term Win Strategy. You talked about a whole bunch of multichannel selling techniques to get above Industrial production. You're kind of running there already. Is there any big thing left within the Win Strategy to accomplish or is it just certain parts of it are running better than you would have thought?
Thomas Williams:
Andy it's Tom. I think there is still lots of opportunities. If I look at services, innovation, systems still a lot of opportunities there. Our distribution mix is still lighter than we would like to see it internationally, so there is opportunity to do that. Collectively, I'm just going to use round numbers, we're still only about 10% market share in this whole motion control space. So there is big opportunity to take share. But I would -- for us and what we want to demonstrate is that we can grow 150 basis points greater than global industrial production over the cycle. It's easier to do that at the beginning of cycle when people are refluxing -- rebounding and refluxing up. What we want to demonstrate is over a multi-year period of time can we average 150 bps, because really top quartile companies and that's also our intention to be demonstrates that over a cycle. So that's why we're really happy with three quarters in a row, believe me we're quite happy with that. The real trick will be doing it over a longer period of time.
Andy Casey:
Okay thanks and then last question more kind of capital allocation. Can you comment on the pipeline, I know you're still integrating and on track with the CLARCOR acquisition integration, but I'm wondering if there are any opportunities that you're looking at?
Thomas Williams:
So Andy it is Tom again. So I've mentioned earlier, so dividends will still be first on the capital deployment side of things, CapEx for organic growth, because organic growth is still the most efficient way to grow the company. We're going to do the share repurchase plan and we're going to pay down debt. But you're right at some point as we glide down the debt path we're going to have the ability to start looking at acquisitions as part of our growth strategy as well. And I would just -- obviously I can't give line of sight on anything there -- I will just let everybody know that we continue to work that pipeline, all those relationships. Those are reviewed as a long standing effort because not something we can turn the switch off, turn it back on. We're going to work those relationships and those strategies. These are obviously targets that fit our strategic vision of our respective groups in the corporation. So we have -- we know what those are and we will continue to work them. As some of you have heard me say before, we want to be great generators of cash and great deployers of cash side and that great deployers of cash side that includes acquisition. And we will continue to [whatever characterize] have an assertive balance sheet at the appropriate time, and we will work those and we will certainly let you know when we're ready.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
Just on CLARCOR, I know you don't want to talk or quantify revenue synergies yet, but just as you get the groups together what are some of the early opportunities that you have identified where they are showing up as clear revenue synergy opportunity?
Thomas Williams:
Jeff this is Tom, I will just characterize it at a high level. [indiscernible] the channel opportunities, number one our channels are complimentary, so you can have product line being carried on the line curve for the various channel partners. Those are regional opportunities because North America is really CLARCOR strong, since we are more balanced globally, so these are regional opportunities. And then there is OEM opportunities, CLARCOR which is we why we love this so much is 80% aftermarket business, and we are stronger on the OEM. So if we're going to leverage those OEM relationships, which may be we have a broader breadth of technologies growing in, as well as filtration that we can leverage. So those are the three broad areas, channel, region and OEM portfolio that we could go to the OEM with. And we're working those hard. Again I would just encourage the analysts to not take numbers into '18 because as we work those if and when they hit they are going to be more in the '19 area. And again I think we will give you a lot more clarity, you can certainly plan on CLARCOR update and the more extensive discussion being a big part of Investor Day in the spring.
Jeff Hammond:
And then if you look at those three opportunities, which one -- where would you expect it to move the fastest?
Thomas Williams:
Not going to comment on that Jeff, as you know we're working all of them equally.
Operator:
And our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Morgan Stanley.
Dillon Cumming:
Good morning guys. This is Dillon Cumming on for Nigel, just wanted to come back on CLARCOR, you guys talked last quarter a bit about some possible margin pressures in integration and will that be through back to consolidation there, some short-term manufacturing efficiencies. Obviously margins sort of [indiscernible] here in 1Q, so are you guys still expecting some kind of pressure here at CLARCOR in the next couple of quarters or do you kind of still have a clear line of sight there, you kind of have worked through those headwinds?
Catherine Suever:
Some of the inefficiencies will come when we're emerging the footprints and we did push that out, so we did less footprint merging in the first quarter than we had originally planned. And you'll see more of that come into play in the third quarter and fourth quarter. Other than that though we're on track for the synergy savings and we're seeing savings in other areas other than footprint consolidation.
Dillon Cumming:
Got it that's helpful. And then maybe just a longer term question here. I think you still have a desire to kind of grow out the distribution footprint in the international segment. I just wondered if you could see how that strategy is progressing and to what extent, and are we driving some of the upside in the international sales growth in the region?
Lee Banks:
This has been a key --this is Lee talking. This has been a key initiative for us as a prior refresh of our new Win Strategy. And we've got some really senior dedicated people working on this around the globe. We've had great progress throughout Asia, Southeast Asia and continued progress in EMEA and really developing parts of EMEA, the Middle East and Africa and developing parts of Europe. So bottom line is we're making great progress. I think you see that reflected in our sales and in our margins.
Dillon Cumming:
Got it. Appreciate the time guys.
Catherine Suever:
Okay. Thanks Dillon.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research.
Neil Frohnapple:
Hi congrats on a great quarter. Pertaining to the sales guidance, I'm curious on what you're factoring in pertaining to CLARCOR organic revenue growth for this year? I think last quarter you indicated that you're expecting low-single digit organic growth. So wondering if you can provide an update on that?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah. I would say now we're looking at more mid-single digits.
Neil Frohnapple:
Okay. So similar to the base business.
Catherine Suever:
Correct.
Neil Frohnapple:
And then maybe as a follow-up to David's question. I mean could you talk more about the increased margin outlook for Diversified International. I think the implied incremental margin for the segment at the midpoint similar to the implied incremental margin in the original guidance. So is there something precluding you guys from experiencing a higher flow through to step up in organic growth expectations or is it more of a wait and see approach given how early we are still in the year?
Catherine Suever:
Yeah. I would say it's early in the year still. We are seeing the margin improvement as a result of a lot of the Win Strategy initiatives we've been working. We've eliminated fixed costs in Europe and that's helping. But as the growth comes through we're hoping to see the incremental margins but it's a little early yet.
Neil Frohnapple:
Okay great. Thanks, I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Thein with Citi Research.
Timothy Thein:
Great. Thank you. Just circling back on the discussion earlier on the strength in Asia and which obviously has been going on for a while. Is that a region where that going back a few years you had [facilitated], obviously we are operating at extremely low rates. And I'm just wondering given the revenue pick up that you've benefited from just where those facilitated facilities are operating today? And I guess really the spirit in the question is whether there is additional costs that start creeping back in or is there still ample room within their facilities to be able to meet the higher volumes?
Thomas Williams:
Tim it's Tom. So on Asia you're right. You have a good memory. Over the last 10 years we've made some investments to really -- in advance of Asia growing into those things and really have grown in some. But from additional CapEx it will be very selective. It will be more a piece of equipment here or two. We don't [lease] any brick and mortar, pretty well add what we need and with the combination of lean and some very targeted equipment purchases, we'll be in good shape.
Timothy Thein:
Okay. In that region and just thinking about international margin as a whole, I'm guessing Asia is still well at least above that average relative to -- at least relative to Europe?
Thomas Williams:
So Tim, this is Tom again, yes it is. And that's why as Asia grows that's why we get a nice corresponding lift international margins.
Timothy Thein:
Okay. And then just Tom on the group consolidation, where are you there? Just thinking about potential -- obviously when those savings come rather quickly, I'm just curious what you're thinking in terms of the division count and where you're looking to end FY18?
Thomas Williams:
Just as to refresh -- its Tom again, refresh for people on the phone. So we started as a 114 and we're going to approximately 90 for this year. And that's something that we constantly look at. It's not something we're [editing] a number, truly what makes sense logically as far as the cost synergies and our growth synergies, people are working in common end markets or common technologies. The pace of consolidation is going to slow. We're not going to continue to grow from 114 to 90, remember if you go from 114 to 90 that's 24 divisions but that will require 48 divisions to be combined, so that's roughly 45% of the company going through some kind of change process. So we will not continue at that pace. And it will be whatever makes sense for our customers and from a cost stand point. So it's going to glide down, by go out a year or so a little bit more. But the simplification actions that will become less of the big driver and more the whole revenue complexity the 80-20 look on being able to be some positive business with. Our business strategy is around the 80-20 concept of revenue complexity. That was [indiscernible] we're carry simplification to the next level going out the next several years.
Timothy Thein:
Okay. Great. Thanks Tom.
Catherine Suever:
Thank you Tim. Okay. We have time for one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. And our last question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies.
Steve Volkmann:
I wanted to circle back to, kind of the discussion I guess everybody is obviously trying to get a sense of sort of sustainability of these current positive trends and I'm wondering, Lee you might have a view, because I think you mentioned that there was a lot of rebuild activity in oil and gas and we're seeing that in some of the mining as well. But it's sort of begs the question of sort of once you are redone rebuilding what's out there things could sort of flatten out or even slow down a little bit and I wonder, if that is something that you guys worry about or not?
Lee Banks:
So obviously there is a lot of that activity going and this Lee. Steve this is Lee. But it's not the only thing going on. So I mean just -- I think the point I try to make when I survey our partners, the really one plus for me is, there is just a lot of pick up in project work happening out there in the field, which, I flow that through to just CapEx being let go with some of these major companies out there and they are working on that, so for me that's a big plus happening. So I can tell you that the activity right now is still good, with a lot of the -- with the work going on in mining, oil and gas, but it's not the only thing that's happening.
Steve Volkmann:
Okay. Fair enough. And then may be a quick one just follow up for Tom, you mentioned that your new incentive compensation plan was kind of working, now that you're two years into that, I thought that was an interesting comment can you just provide a little more color on that?
Thomas Williams:
Steve this is Tom, a reminder for what that is. We have a return on net assets as incentive plan which really touches almost 95% of our team members around the world and for the senior leadership team, the divisional leadership team we've added a growth element to this. So if you grow faster in a market, whatever your incentive payout would be, there would be a positive multiplier on top of that. If you grow less in a market there will be a negative hair cut to your payout. So we've rolled that out a couple of years ago. And unfortunately the timing was not appropriate because there was a negative hair cut for people, and this was really the first time in the history of the company we did that. But as you might imagine that drove a lot of attention and drove the right kind of behaviors. So what it does is it encourages people to what we set on the Win Strategy, want you to grow faster on the market and if you do that you're going to be rewarded handsomely for that. And so that's I think the incentive plan, any good incentive plan you want to drive behavior and the indicators are striving with the right kind of behavior.
Steve Volkmann:
And that's starting to payout as a multiplier rather than a hair cut now?
Thomas Williams:
Yes.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. Thank you.
Catherine Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Steve.
Operator:
Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to Ms. Cathy Suever for closing remarks.
Catherine Suever:
Thanks Chelsea. Thanks to everybody for joining us today. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your call if you any more questions. Thank you everybody. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Executives:
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.
Analysts:
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States) Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Group
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corp. Q4 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instruction will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Chief Financial Officer, Cathy Suever. Ma'am, you may begin.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, James. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's fourth quarter and fiscal 2017 earnings release conference call. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are also posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. The agenda for today's call appears on slide number 3. To begin, Tom will provide highlights for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2017. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's fourth quarter and full-year 2017 performance, together with the guidance for fiscal year 2018. Tom will then provide a few summary comments and we'll open the call for a question-and-answer session. Please refer now to slide number 4, as Tom will get us started with the highlights.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks Cathy, and welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation this morning. Today, I'd like to share highlights on our fourth quarter, the full-year results and make some brief comments on 2018 guidance, and give you an update on our new Win Strategy. Before getting into the financials, I'd like to start our report on the safety of the company. During 2017, we were able to reduce our recordable injuries by 22% compared to the prior year. This builds on significant year-over-year improvements in the last several years. Our global team continues to focus on achieving our goal of zero accidents through a multi-faceted plan, which includes utilization of high performance teams. This team process generates higher levels of engagement and ownership across all of our key performance indicators. Now, the financial highlights of the fourth quarter results. This was outstanding quarter for Parker across many measures. Fourth quarter sales were $3.5 billion, an 18% increase compared with the same quarter a year ago. Notably, organic sales increased 6%, while acquisitions contributed 13% and currency was a slight negative. We are particularly pleased with strong organic growth of 6% for the second consecutive quarter, driven by improving conditions across many end markets. The CLARCOR acquisition, which closed in late February, was the main factor influencing the 13% increase from acquisitions. Order rates, which do not include the impact of acquisitions, increased 8% compared with the same quarter last year, mostly driven by a 10% increase in orders for both Industrial North America and Industrial International businesses. Net income for the fourth quarter increased 21% to $293 million as reported compared with the same period last year. Earnings per share was a record at $2.15 as reported or $2.45 on an adjusted basis, a 29% increase in adjusted earnings per share compared with the same quarter last year. Our overall segment operating margin performance this quarter was very strong at 15.3% as reported or 16.8% on an adjusted basis. This is excellent performance, representing a 120-basis-point increase in adjusted segment operating margin compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. Keep in mind that these margins are fully burdened with additional amortization and depreciation related to the CLARCOR acquisition. So, just a few highlights on the full year that I'd like to note. Sales increased 6% to $12.0 billion, mostly driven by acquisitions. Organic growth was 2% as demand levels were weak in the first half, but improved significantly in the second half of the year. Full-year net income increased 22% to $983 million. Earnings per share were $7.25 as reported or $8.11 on an adjusted basis, representing a 26% increase in adjusted earnings per share compared with 2016. As a reminder, during FY 2017, we completed the sale of the Autoline product line, resulting in a pre-tax gain of $45 million or $0.21 per share. Total segment operating margins were 14.9% as reported. On an adjusted basis, segment operating margins were 15.8%, a 100-basis-point improvement versus last year. We anticipate continued margin expansion from the new Win Strategy. Excluding a discretionary pension contribution, full-year cash from operations was 12.7% of sales and our free cash flow conversion was 134%. As I've said before, a key focus for us is to be great generators and deployers of cash in a way that produces increased long-term returns for our shareholders. These cash flow measures demonstrate our ability to be consistently a strong generator of cash. This was also a successful year of cash deployment. We increased our annual dividends per share, ensuring that we continue what is now 61 consecutive years of increasing our annual dividends paid. We also repurchased $265 million worth of Parker shares. Importantly, we invested in growing our business by making three acquisitions, one of which, CLARCOR, was transformational for our portfolio. Regarding the integration of CLARCOR and the Parker filtration businesses, the team continues to make excellent progress. We see opportunities to accelerate the integration and we are pulling into FY 2018 planned costs to achieve, which were originally expected in FY 2019. Our estimated total costs to achieve remain at $90 million. We continue to be confident that we can generate the $140 million in cost synergies originally expected from our combined filtration businesses. With our strong cash flow, we expect our gross debt to EBITDA multiple to reduce to approximately two times over the next 24 months. Moving to fiscal 2018 guidance, we are initiating a full-year sales growth forecast in the range of 11.4% to 15% to reflect anticipated higher organic growth and the impact of acquisitions. We are estimating a reported earnings in the range of $7.88 to $8.58 per share, or $8.23 at the midpoint. On an adjusted basis, earnings per share are expected to be in the range of $8.45 to $9.15 per share, for a midpoint of $8.80 per share. Earnings are adjusted on a pre-tax basis for expected business realignment expenses of approximately $58 million and CLARCOR costs to achieve of approximately $52 million. Business realignment expenses will reflect ongoing footprint optimization and our simplification actions. A few highlights regarding simplification. We have continued to consolidate divisions, going from 114 divisions in FY 2015 to 100 divisions in the middle of FY 2017, and we plan to be at 90 divisions by the end of FY 2018. These numbers are for our legacy business, excluding Parker. In June, we formed a Motion Systems Group by combining the businesses of our hydraulics and automation technologies. We believe this combination leverages the strength of Parker's motion technologies into a single organization that can better address the needs of our customers. In the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, we are further streamlining our organization to put greater emphasis on leveraging resources across the region. With this change, we are reducing the number of regions from four to two, and from 22 sales companies to 7 multi-country sales companies, all supported by a pan-regional customer service organization. Additionally, we continue with our revenue complexity efforts to reduce costs and improve the speed at which we serve our customers. The execution of the new Win Strategy and the strategic addition of CLARCOR have resulted in a significant increase in our EBITDA margin. On an as reported basis, EBITDA margin improved 160 basis points from 13.7% in FY 2016 to 15.3% in FY 2017. On an adjusted basis, EBITDA margins increased 200 basis points from 14.7% in FY 2016 to 16.7% in FY 2017. In one year alone, we have made significant progress toward our targeted 300-basis-point improvement in EBITDA, as a result of the CLARCOR acquisition and the new Win Strategy. We look for continued EBITDA margin expansion in the future. So, for now, I'm going to hand things back to Cathy to give you more details on the quarter and the guidance.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Tom. I'd like you to now refer to slide number 5. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter and full-year 2017. Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.45 versus $1.90 for the same quarter last year. Fourth quarter earnings have been adjusted to exclude CLARCOR acquisition-related expenses of $0.19 per share and business realignment expenses of $0.11 per share, which compares to business realignment expenses of $0.13 per share for the fourth quarter last year. Adjusted earnings per share for the full-year 2017 were $8.11 versus $6.46 for 2016. The 2017 earnings are adjusted for business realignment expenses of $0.30 per share and CLARCOR acquisition-related expenses of $0.56 per share for a combined total of $0.86 per share. The 2016 earnings are adjusted for business realignment expenses of $0.57 per share. On slide number 6, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 for the fourth quarter of 2016 to $2.45 for the fourth quarter of this year. Increases included higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.66 per share, reflecting the improved market demand, and benefits from the new Win Strategy initiatives. Lower income tax expense in 2017 equated to an increase of $0.04 per share, due largely to the stock option expense tax credit. Adjusted per share income was reduced by $0.11 for higher interest expense, while higher corporate G&A and other expense reduced it another $0.04. On slide number 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk for adjusted earnings per share of $6.46 for the full-year 2016 to $8.11 for the full-year 2017. Increases in 2017 included higher segment operating income equating to $1.17, a gain of $0.21 realized in Q2 from the divestiture of the Autoline product line, lower other expense and corporate G&A of $0.16, lower income tax expense equating to $0.17, which was again driven primarily by stock option expense tax credits, and fewer shares outstanding equating to $0.08. The decrease to adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2017 was higher interest expense of $0.14 associated with the CLARCOR acquisition debt issuance. Moving to slide number 8, we reviewed total Parker sales and segment operating margin for the fourth quarter and full year. Total company organic sales in the fourth quarter increased by 6% compared to last year. There was a 12.9% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisition, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 0.7%. Total segment operating margins for the fourth quarter, adjusted for realignment costs as well as CLARCOR acquisition-related costs, was 16.8% versus 15.6% for the same quarter last year. The increase adjusted segment operating income this quarter reflects the impact of organic growth, combined with the benefits yielded from our simplification initiatives. For the full year, organic sales in fiscal year 2017 increased by 1.7%, acquisitions contributed 4.9%, while the effect of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact of 0.7% of sales. Total company segment operating margin for fiscal year 2017, adjusted for realignment and CLARCOR acquisition-related expenses, was 15.8% versus 14.8% in fiscal year 2016. Moving to slide number 9, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the fourth quarter, North American organic sales increased by 7.4% compared to the same quarter last year. Acquisitions contributed 25.1%, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 0.3%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter, adjusted for realignment and CLARCOR acquisition-related costs, was 18.2% of sales versus 18.0% in the prior year. This improvement was driven by strong incremental margins on increased revenues and lower fixed costs. For the full year, organic sales for fiscal year 2017 decreased by 0.2%. Contribution to sales from acquisitions was 8.8%. The impact of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of 0.3%. For the full year 2017, operating margin, adjusted for realignment costs, was 17.7% versus 16.8% in the prior year. As a reminder, these Industrial North America results have been impacted by the CLARCOR acquisition, with approximately 85% of total CLARCOR sales recognized within North America. I'll provide further detail for the quarter and full year regarding the impact of CLARCOR acquisition in a subsequent slide. I'll continue now with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 10. Organic sales for the fourth quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 7.7%. Acquisitions positively impacted sales by 6%, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 1.5%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter, adjusted for business realignment costs, was 14% of sales versus 12.6% in the prior year, again reflecting strong incremental margins on increased revenues and lower fixed costs. For the full year, organic sales for fiscal year 2017 increased by 4.3%. Acquisitions positively impacted sales by 2.9%, while currency resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of 1.6%. For the full-year 2017, operating margin, adjusted for realignment costs, was 14% of sales versus 12.3% in the prior year. I'll now move to slide number 11 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues were relatively flat at 0.1% increase for the fourth quarter. Modest declines in OEM volume, reflecting continued softness in business jets, were offset by positive aftermarket growth during the quarter. Operating margin for the fourth quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 18.5% of sales versus 16.4% in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $112 million as compared to $99 million last year, primarily reflecting the impact of favorable aftermarket mix during the current quarter. For the full year, organic sales for fiscal year 2017 increased by 1.1% of sales and operating margin, adjusted for realignment costs, was 14.9% of sales versus 15.1% in the prior year. On slides 12 and 13, you'll find the fourth quarter and full-year 2017 results for total Parker, CLARCOR and the resulting legacy Parker for net sales, operating income and operating margin. We wanted to provide clarity for legacy Parker and legacy CLARCOR results through fiscal year 2017. In fiscal 2018, we will be operating the CLARCOR and Parker businesses more as one company, and we will no longer be able to provide a clean split between the two. On slide 12, you see that the fourth quarter 2017 CLARCOR sales contributed $351 million, and as-reported operating income was a negative $3 million. Adjusted CLARCOR operating income, which includes amortization, was $30 million favorable, when adjusted for acquisition-related expenses. On an as-reported basis, legacy Parker operating margins improved 230 basis points from 14.8% to 17.1%. On an adjusted basis, legacy Parker operating margins improved 210 basis points from 15.6% to 17.7% in the fourth quarter. On slide number 13, you'll find that the four months Parker owned CLARCOR, CLARCOR sales contributed $487 million and as-reported operating income was a negative $16 million. Adjusted CLARCOR operating income, which includes amortization, was $42 million when adjusted for acquisition-related expenses of $58 million. On an as-reported basis, legacy Parker operating margins improved 180 basis points from 13.9% to 15.7%. On an adjusted basis, legacy Parker operating margins improved 130 basis points from 14.8% to 16.1%. The amortization related to CLARCOR intangibles is presently estimated to be $129 million per year and incremental depreciation from CLARCOR is estimated to be $16 million per year. Moving to slide number 14 with a detail on order rates by segments. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace segments are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders grew a positive 8% as of June 30. Diversified Industrial North America orders increased to a year-over-year 10% change. Diversified Industrial International orders also increased year-over-year at 10% for the quarter. And Aerospace Systems orders were positive 1% year-over-year. On slide number 15, we report cash flow from operating activities. Full-year cash flow from operating activities was $1.3 billion or 10.8% of sales. This compares to 10.7% of sales for the same period last year. When adjusted for the $220 million discretionary pension contribution made in the first quarter of fiscal 2017, cash from operating activities was very strong at 12.7% of sales. This compares to 12.4% of sales for the same period last year, which is adjusted for $200 million discretionary pension contribution made in 2016. In addition to the discretionary pension contribution, the significant uses of cash in 2017 were $4.2 billion for acquisitions, $265 million for the company's repurchase of common shares, $345 million for the payment of shareholder dividends, and $204 million or 1.7% of sales for capital expenditures. On slide 16, we show a 10-year history of Parker's free cash flow conversion rate. For the full-year 2017, Parker generated free cash flow conversion of 134%. As reflected on this slide, our free cash flow conversion has exceeded 100% for each of the past 12 years. The full-year earnings guidance for 2018 is outlined on slide number 17. Guidance is being provided on both an as-reported and an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of $58 million and CLARCOR costs to achieve of $52 million for the full year. Total sales are expected to increase in the range of plus-11.4% to plus-15% as compared to the prior year. Full-year organic growth at the midpoint is estimated to be plus-3.7%. Acquisitions in the guidance are expected to positively impact sales by 8.4%. Currency in the guidance is expected to have a positive 1% impact on sales. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended June 30, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for fiscal year 2018. For total Parker, as-reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.1% and 15.5%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.9% and 16.3%. The full-year guidance at the midpoint below the line items, which includes corporate G&A, interest and other expense, is $500 million. The full-year tax rate for 2018 is projected to be 29%. We've not included any projected benefit for stock option expense tax credits. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full-year guidance is 135.6 million shares. For the full year, the guidance range on an as-reported earnings per share basis is $7.88 to $8.58, or $8.23 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $8.45 to $9.15, or $8.80 at the midpoint. This adjusted guidance excludes business realignment expenses of $58 million and savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be $25 million in fiscal year 2018. CLARCOR synergy costs to achieve are forecasted to be $52 million for the full-year 2018. The effect of these costs on earnings per share is $0.27 per share. As Tom mentioned in his remarks, we have pulled forward some of the planned CLARCOR integration activities. As a result, we expect to have incurred slightly over 80% of the total $90 million estimated cost by the end of fiscal year 2018. The remaining 20% is expected to be incurred evenly during fiscal year 2019 and fiscal year 2020. CLARCOR synergy savings are estimated to be $58 million by the end of fiscal year 2018, equating to approximately 40% of the announced $140 million total expected synergy savings. We estimate an additional savings of another 40% during fiscal year 2019 and the balance of 20% in fiscal year 2020. We remain well on pace to realize the forecasted $140 million run rate synergy savings during fiscal year 2020. Savings from all business realignment and CLARCOR costs to achieve are fully reflected in both the as-reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges we've given. We would ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full-year 2018 guidance at midpoint are
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Cathy. I am very pleased with the progress we are making towards our key goals. We're just now approaching two years into the implementation of the new Win Strategy. Not only are we delivering immediate results, but we continue to see opportunities that will allow us to drive ongoing EPS growth for the next several years, driven by four key factors. First, the new Win Strategy, which continues to drive better overall operating performance. Second, lower fixed costs as a result of our restructuring activities. Third, higher levels of organic sales growth. And lastly, the CLARCOR acquisition will yield incremental earnings and synergies. I would especially like to thank our team members around the world for their dedicated efforts and the outstanding year that we had in FY 2017. Overall, Parker is in a very strong position as we celebrate 100 years and reflect on all the great things we have accomplished and our bright future ahead of us. All signs point to a strong 2018, in which we expect to generate record levels of sales and earnings. So, at this time, James, we're ready to take question and you can go ahead and get us started.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you. Good morning, everybody.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
I was wondering if maybe Lee or Tom, could you run through what you're seeing by region?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Andy, this is Tom. Maybe what I'd like to do is kind of walk through what we're thinking for the guide, because...
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
...obviously what happened on the regions is influencing the guidance. And I know that'll be a question that everybody on the phone's going to have. So let me start with the top line and I'll include the market view on that as well, Andy. So, first, the guidance is $13.6 billion; and round numbers, organic of $4 billion, currency of $1 billion, acquisitions of $8 billion. And so we use a lot of different inputs, economic models, discussions with our teams, end market activity, of course talking to our customers and distributors. And the way that 4% organic looks, it's 5% organic growth for the first half total Parker. If you look at just Industrial for us, it's around 6% if you add North America and International together. And then, for the second half of our year, what we used is our traditional first half, second half splits. So we have decades of experience of data that are first half, second half split, barring some macro event in the second half, is almost always 40%, 52%. So you take a first half at 5% organic total for the company, 6% industrial to a 48%-52% split compared to prior year, and you get to $13.6 billion. What that gives you is that yields at 2.5% organic growth for the second half. Now, that gives some insight on margins, and I'll come back to the markets that influenced that organic look. Of course then the other part on our top line is putting a full-year CLACOR in there as well. Now, on the margin side, I want to give you some color on legacy margins. So this is base Parker business without CLARCOR, and that's going from 16.1% in FY 2017 to 17.2%, so a 110-basis-point improvement on the legacy business. So, significant improvement based on the Win Strategy, and all the activities that we're doing driving those type of margins. What that infers is a legacy MROS of around 40%. All-in, total company's is about 18%. But remember, we've got quite a bit of headwind with the amortization and depreciation from CLARCOR that Cathy went through. So, on the end market summary that makes up that organic look, there's really a tremendous amount, and this is very similar to what we're seeing in the fourth quarter as well. For us, there's a much longer list of positive end markets than there are neutral and negative. I'm just going to run through the positives. I'm just going to list them for the sake of brevity here. Positives are aerospace, agriculture, construction, distribution, forestry, general industrial, heavy-duty truck, lawn and turf, mining, oil and gas, refrigeration and air-conditioning, semicon and telecom. So, as I said, it's a long list but that's a great thing to have a long list of positives. On the neutral side is automotive, power gen, rail and life sciences, and really the only market that we see as negative year-over-year is marine. Now, one comment I want to make is context to overall that end market, that's how we are doing in the end markets. I'm not trying to make a comment about the whole end markets, kind of what it's doing. It's just our projection of Parker within that end market. So, if I could just kind of wrap up and I'll let you have a follow-up, Andy. The way I look at this, this is record sales and EPS for next year. We've got legacy margins growing 110 basis points. We've got organic growth at almost 4% versus a global industrial production index of about 2%. So, remember, we talked about with the new Win Strategy, we want to have 150 basis points higher than industrial production growth, and we're exceeding that. And then we're accelerating the CLARCOR costs to achieve and the synergy savings, which are going to help us from a EBITDA margin accretion as well. So I view this as a very solid guide with good assumptions.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Tom. And then a follow-up on that 17% to legacy margin. Does that imply – I think your fiscal 2020 goals were 17% for total company.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
So you're already there in the guidance in fiscal 2018. Does that just mean you have to pull up CLARCOR to get to the 17% threshold or do you expect incremental legacy growth beyond that 17%?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, we're not done. So we definitely expect legacy margins to continue to improve. We originally set that target of 17%. Really our goal is to get that on an as-reported basis, and that was barring some large deal like we did with CLARCOR, which we're ecstatic over. So, ideally, I want to get it to 17% on an as-reported basis and I'd like to get the whole company to 17% with CLARCOR in it. But, remember, if you add that amortization, depreciation in the CLARCOR business itself, it has 10 points of headwind round numbers with that amortization and depreciation. So we see continued margin expansion. All the actions that we're going to do underneath what Cathy talked about with our realignment activities are on the base business and, of course, the costs to achieve are with the combined filtration business, and continue to make us faster and more cost-effective. So we see margin expansion in the future beyond the 17% obviously.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hi, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Hey. So, Tom, it seems like with CLARCOR you guys are finding a lot of ways to accelerate costs and realize synergies. I guess what's the scope for initiating more spend than the $90 million you have targeted? And then also, specifically, if I'm doing the math right, if you're expecting $40 million in benefits next year, that alone should be like, what, roughly 275 basis points or so to CLARCOR margins next year. Is that right?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, I'm not going to calculate 2019's yet for you, but let me just talk about the integration itself. We are clearly finding opportunities to go faster. And I think it speaks to the great fit that CLARCOR and our filtration businesses are together, great product, people, channel, cultural fit, et cetera. And as we put the combined team together, we see opportunities to pull in some of those actions from 2019 to 2018. So, kind of the themes that we're looking at early on the savings are focused on corporate overhead, which is a little more straightforward to go after, facility rationalization, manufacturing optimization there and logistics. And as we move into year two, which will be 2019 and 2020, still a facility lift we'll get, and now you start to bring in more of the supply chain savings and then you bring in more of the productivity savings as you get a chance to put the Win Strategy and all of those things into those divisions. So, that's why when Cathy went through it, of the $140 million, it's $40 million, $40 million, $20 million as far as the split between 2018, 2019 and 2020. So we are very optimistic and very encouraged by what we see to continue to work that and make terrific progress.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Okay. No, that's helpful. And it sounds like the – I guess, maybe just my follow-up there is just on growth. And talking about the first half of 2018 in Industrial and the 6% growth, the order trends are pretending faster growth in that. And so I'm just curious, maybe you could tell us a little bit about the buildup to 6% and what you saw as kind of the trends progress throughout the quarter, just to get a sense for the conservatism of that number?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, the trends to the quarter were pretty consistent as far as what we saw, as far as orders. When we look at April through what we saw through July, we're pretty consistent. On the International, we showed 10%. We had Asia at mid-teens, and Latin America and Europe kind of in the mid- to upper-single digits. So we saw a good progress there. Now part of what you've got to remember is, especially when you get to Q2, you get to tougher comps with International because that's what's started turning last year for us was Asia particularly turning quicker. So, if you look at the first half of 6% is a higher Q1 upper-single digits, but moving down to mid-single digits as you move through the second quarter. And while we're pleased with these order rates, we recognize that it's hard to continue, especially as we start to move against these comps at double-digit order rates. So they will start to glide down and will move down to some, what I will call, more nominal growth rates, which will still be terrific for us. And you leverage that on top of what we're doing and had done already on the cost structure and continue to do, is going to mean nice earnings accretion for our shareholders.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC:
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Tom.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, Nathan.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
I'll follow-up to Joe there and start maybe looking at the second half. I think you said 2.5% organic growth in the second half. Leading indicators are still positive, global economy is improving. I would have thought that potentially the order rates are going to be better in the first half and maybe drive a better organic growth in the second half. Can you talk a little bit about your assumptions that go into that 2.5% organic growth in the second half?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nathan, it's Tom. The assumptions are pretty straightforward, 48%-52%. Decades and decades of data that has showed that's our traditional split. I recognize I'm probably not smart enough to be able to forecast FY 2018 accurately, but I've got decades and decades of experience to tell us, maybe barring some unusual event, that's going to be 48%-52%. So, when you do that kind of math and you look at comparison to 2017, that's what yields that 2.5% growth.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Does that then imply that you're assuming a relatively neutral demand environment. You're not assuming any improvement in the global economy as we go forward, say, over the next six months getting towards the second half in order to sit in that 48%-52% split. If the global economy improved, then maybe it'd be a little heavier to the second half than usual?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I feel pretty good about the global economy right now. We've already experienced, as you've seen in our orders the last couple of quarters, this is pretty good activity right now and we look forward to continue. And the splits kind of is what drove the second half. But we feel very good. I mean, if you look across the regions, this is a great environment for Parker right now.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And then just one on the order rates. Do you have any indication of whether or not there's restocking going on at the OEMs or whether this is – you're pulling through real demand here?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nathan, it's Lee. On the distribution level, I would say there is some modest restock taking place. There's been a surge in activity and I have North America mostly in mind when I make that comment. And then on the OE side, I would say modest but it's pretty much pull-through demand, the best we could tell at this point in time.
Nathan Hardie Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thanks very much.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, Steve.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
I know you sort of do your business reviews kind of at the end of the year and curious, as you think about your portfolio and the simplification stuff that you're doing, whether there might be an opportunity to sort of further streamline the portfolio, maybe do some divestitures or something along with the process of kind of reducing the overall complexity.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Steve, this is Tom. When we look at the portfolio, we're pretty happy with it. Now, we'll continue to look at whether we're the best owner. I think it's always a good practice. And if you look at us the last five years, we have divested of about $350 million of business that we didn't think was core or were the best owner. But when you look at how the company has been built, we are an integrated motion and control technology company, with 60% of our customers buying from two-thirds of the company. So, obviously, our customers are voting with their hard earned wallet. This package that Parker offers makes sense to solve problems for them. So I don't see any big things for the portfolio on that end, but we'll continue to be good stewards and look at that. But, as I mentioned in my opening comments, there's a lot of activity going on with the whole simplification actions. I'll just tick through a couple real quickly. So the division consolidations, when we started this as part of the Win Strategy, we were at 114 divisions, this is what are corporate Parker right now. And we're going to end the fiscal year at 90 divisions in FY 2018, so 24 divisions. But to get to 24 divisions going down, we have to combine 48 divisions, so 48 divisions out of the 114 divisions, and round numbers that's like 45% of the company has gone through some kind of a consolidation process, pretty impactful that much activity. Then we used to have separate hydraulics and automation businesses. So those housed all of our motion technologies, so hydraulics had hydraulics obviously, automation had pneumatics and electromechanical. So we looked at those and said to ourselves, it makes more sense that they be underneath one leadership on operating structure, because our customers are looking for one motion technology solution. And let's do that together, let's put all of our motion technology together. So we combined those two business groups effective in June of this calendar year. And then I mentioned the things that we're doing in Europe, Middle East and Africa, with a much more pan-European approach on customer service and our sales structure, which is really doing a lot to kind of reduce, I would call, the higher part of the organizational structure, still keep all of our key sales people or at least most of them, and have a much more efficient sales leadership structure in Europe. But I would still say that – so those are some pretty impactful structural things we're doing this fiscal year. But the big nut is still the whole revenue complexity, 80%-20% and looking at all of our part numbers, our code activity, et cetera, and streamlining that and that will be day-by-day, hand-to-hand combat working through that over the next several years and that'll have a continued margin lift for us as well.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. That's helpful. Thanks. And maybe just to follow up then. As I look at the difference between North America and International, we're at roughly 400 basis points now in terms of the margin. And I guess I've been doing this long enough with you to remember when you actually had some parity there a few years back, and I'm curious as you look at the two businesses and the trajectory over the next couple of years, do you expect that to close and are there any sort of structural reasons that those margins should be that different?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Steve, it's Tom again. I don't know what time period you're talking about, but in my time they've never been the same. Maybe there is some data point historically, but they've always had a difference. And the difference really kind of stems to two things. One, the mix of OEM and distribution is higher distribution in North America, hence why one of the key growth strategies of the company is to grow that international distribution in Europe, in Asia, and Latin America to drive that. We want to grow distribution around the world, including North America. We would like to change that mix in the rest of the world. So, that'd be one big one. And then the SG&A is higher in Europe than it is in North America. Hence, when you hear these actions that we're talking about, especially this year, are all geared at trying to lower that SG&A and get these more in line. Remember, the mix issue between OE and distribution, that won't be solved in a year. That's going to take – took us 60 years to build the network we got in North America. I'm not going to be happy to wait that long, but obviously we're going to stay at it very aggressively. But that will take time to change the mix part of things.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from John Inch with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you, everyone. Good morning. Thank you and good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Hey. So, CLARCOR, what was the organic growth in the quarter. And I guess you're saying your Industrial growth you expect next year is 6% first half, 2.5% second half. What about CLARCOR? Is that going to follow the same pattern?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, John. For the fourth quarter, we had relatively low-single-digit to almost flat growth for CLARCOR itself. Part of that is because they had a really strong March and so the fourth quarter just was even, we were okay with that. Going into fiscal year 2018, we're expecting low-single-digit organic growth for CLARCOR for the year, a little heavier first half as their seasonality is strong in the first half compared to second half, as it is for Parker.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, a little bit below the corporate average, right, of 4%. So I think that's natural if you're kind of restructuring that business, you're going to create a little bit of disruption in terms of people moving around and stuff. Is that what that is or is there something else about the CLARCOR mix, their end markets or whatnot. And I'm assuming you're not baking any revenue synergies into those assumptions.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
You're correct that we don't have revenue synergies built-in. Keep in mind, the aftermarket business doesn't tend to have the volatility or the market-driven change like OE has. Aftermarket tends to be a little bit more steady and low-single-digit growth continuously, rather than the peaks and the valleys, and they're heavy aftermarket.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So you're saying there is actually no restructuring disruption.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, not to the sales, but to the margins...
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
We'll certainly be building inventory for the facility consolidations and things like that. So there'll be some disruption in the margin level, but not at the sales level.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
You've given us some CLARCOR numbers, but of the $8.80 midpoint adjusted, what's the EPS attributable to CLARCOR?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
We're projecting a $0.20 accretion from CLARCOR in fiscal 2018.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just lastly on Aero. I think Eaton had kind of punk (50:17) Aero numbers too. Is military just dragging that in some manner right now, or is there something else going on that – I realize Aero doesn't get a lot of attention per se. But I'm just curious kind of what's going on, because aftermarket looks pretty good, OE not as great, I mean is it military or is there something else?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
John, it's Tom. Let me just walk you through the four major buckets for Aerospace. This is looking at our 2018 guide. So, for commercial OEM, we've got it as flat. And it's a mixture of single-aisle continuing to grow, our A350 content is very high. So, that's incremental growth for us, being offset with other weakness in wide-body like Boeing 777, and then weakness in bizjet and helicopters, which is trying to find a bottom, but still not helping us. So those kind of net out to a neutral. Military OE is flat. The good thing is in Aero's F-35, we have a great content, F-35 missiles and the KC-46 tanker program, offset with legacy fighters starting to wean off, F-15s and F-16s. Commercial MRO at plus-3%, driven by available seat miles in air traffic around the world. And the military MRO at plus-5%, and that's F-35 provisioning and just the aging fleet and the need to do some repair and replacement. So, that nets out to 1.6%, 1.5% growth in FY 2018.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Just last, how did China do? China has been really strong for lots of multi companies. How did it do kind of not just on an absolute basis, but just the cadence of business in China, did it pick up? I know you've got your own Parker expansion initiatives. Just what was going on in China in the quarter?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Again, John, it's Tom. China continued to do very strong, mid-teen growth in the quarter and virtually every end market as you get go down the list, being positive. And the Asia team in general across – in addition to China, we've got every country in positive territory, every country growing. And Asia was the first region for us that turned and had a terrific year for us last year and it looks like it'll be another strong year as well.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi. Good morning. I guess just a follow-up, two questions. One, Tom, I know revenue synergies aren't assumed in your numbers for fiscal year 2018, but is there potential upside in terms of CLARCOR revenue synergies in 2018 or should we think about that as more of a 2019 opportunity, even though it's not in your numbers? And then, second, just your assumption on margins, OE versus aftermarket, and just price material cost in 2018. Some of your customers are starting to talk about passing through price. I'm wondering if you're able to do that as well? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. So I'll start with...
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Revenue synergies potential.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
...revenue synergies. Yeah. Thank you. I would say, we'll start to see maybe some in 2018, but you're right, I think this is more of a 2019 exposure for us. We continue to want to use that as a contingency and more of an upside for us. We always like to exceed expectations. So I think that's an opportunity for us. But, again, I would see that more in 2019 than 2018. Aftermarket versus OE, the traditional difference for us has been about 10 points in margin, and that's still about the same. And I'll let Lee comment on the pricing environment.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Jamie, I would just say our assumptions for pricing and costs are pretty flat going into FY 2018. There are some dynamics changing, but I think from a planning standpoint we're just assuming pretty flat.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Tom, going back to Industrial. I'm wondering if there is a way that you can bucket for us maybe what percentage of your business you would guess is currently operating under what you would consider a mid-cycle or a normalized volume environment? And related to this, when we're looking at your Industrial guidance for the back half of the year, the organic growth, what exactly does that imply for this bucket? Does it mean that we're getting close to normalized volumes or is there something else we need to think about?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, Mig, it's Tom. It's always hard for me to do this early, mid-, late-cycle. Basically I can't figure out how to do this. So I would just suggest you that what we're seeing, if I take distribution as a good example, so distribution is high-single-digit growth right now and it's going to glide into something that's more like mid-single as we go probably into Q2 and then somewhere in that 3% to 4% as we go into the second half. So it's going to start through the course of the next nine months, you're going to glide into some more normalized growth from what we saw. So we had two quarters in a row of 6%. We're forecasting another 6% for the first half. Again, we talked about Industrial. So, that would be 12 months of 6% growth, which is pretty good. And second half starts to become some more normalized level.
Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Okay. Well, then one for you maybe Cathy. Looking at the below-the-line-items guidance, so as far as I can tell, your adjusted for Autoline for 2017, you're roughly guiding for $35 million worth of higher expenses in fiscal 2018, yet your interest is $80 million higher. I understand that pension helps you a little bit. I'm trying to figure out how incremental CLARCOR costs, maybe some additional comp, wouldn't push this number higher than $500 million?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, I'm glad that that's the way you're thinking. We've done our best to keep costs down. We've had a lot of initiatives to simplify our SG&A costs or fixed costs, including at corporate, and these are activities. But you did hit on the Autoline gain won't be there, correct. We are continuing to make investments that will go through the corporate G&A for things like Internet of Things, growth. We're growing our additive manufacturing and we're looking into investments into robotics. So we are continuing to make investments that will go through the corporate G&A line. You hit on incentive compensation, we have some incentive comp plans that are market-based and they will see a little bit higher expense in 2018. Interest expense, you had a high number there. I have $42 million incremental interest expense year-over-year. And you're right, pensions will be dropping. We saw some nice gains in our pension assets in fiscal 2017 that will benefit our expense line in 2018. And yeah, just some other puts and takes in smaller amounts.
Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.:
Great. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO. Your line is open.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Morning, Joel.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hey, guys. How's it going?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
A simple one and then a little – not really that detail. Anyway, the margins in the Aerospace division, is this kind of a new run rate? Is all the R&D still abating? And we can stay at these kind of levels and build on that, or is it just more of the mix in this quarter that kind of jumped it up so high?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
It's more of the mix, Joel. They saw some very heavy aftermarket mix in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter volume for the aftermarket does tend to be our highest quarter. So the mix was good. Just because of the timing of some of the development costs, I don't know if you remember, in Q3, our development costs were up a bit. Those came out of Q4 kind of run rate. So, Q4, just for the quarter, had lower levels of development costs. But we expect development costs to continue to be about 7.5% of sales going forward. And margins in the fourth quarter were kind of a one-time anomaly and they will return back to where we were seeing them during most of the year.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. Thanks. And I wonder if, Lee, maybe, you're the best guy for this, if you could give us a couple of examples of, like, the revenue complexity, like, what are the things you're working on, and a couple of the – like, maybe the targets for 2018. Just give us maybe some guidepost that we can watch out for to stay updated on. Thank you.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, that's a big topic, Joel. I don't know if I could it justice.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Or just a summary of a couple of topical things.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. We've got a process inside our company we call Parker Operating Protocol, and it really gives us segmentation across our product line base. As you know, we've been building some of these products for a long time, there's a long tail. And it gives us an opportunity to reduce the complexity of that long tail by either moving into standard products or finding alternative methods to take advantage of that. So I think what you can expect to see is, say, well, how can you measure this, you can expect to see margin expansion as we go forward in this and, quite frankly, higher opportunities as we focus on core opportunities and not be distracted by peripheral opportunities, if that makes sense.
Joel G. Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. Thanks for squeezing me in. I guess my question would be, if you're pulling forward the synergies costs for CLARCOR into 2018 from 2019, why aren't you pulling forward the savings?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, this is Tom. When you pull forward the costs, a lot of those costs might be hitting in the final quarter of 2018. So we won't be able to see those savings. I mean, that's the quick answer.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. So it's just on the margin pulling it in from one to the other.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Right.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Actually I think that was part of it. I think most of my other questions got answered along the way. So I'll leave it there and follow up offline. Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, Ann. At this point, we'll take one more question, please.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next and final question is from David Raso with Evercore. Your line is open.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Hi. Thanks for the extra time. First question, cadence of the orders throughout the quarter, and obviously any color on July, now that July is completely done. That would be greatly appreciated.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
David, it's Tom. Orders were pretty consistent, didn't see a lot of variation, which was good, consistently at a pretty high level throughout the quarter and July was indicative of what we reflected in the guide. So, nothing unusual in July.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
And then also thinking about the buckets of orders. I mean you have out of your old school investors more of a machinery, big mobile growth. Others thinking maybe factory floor CapEx, stationary type stuff comes in next. And then you have obviously the consumer life sciences type bucket that's little more multi-industrial, decides of course your internal improvement story. I know you have a lot of end markets. But can you give me a little color on – if you want to even talk about even the actual quarter, not even going forward, I assume mobile is the biggest growth. What are you seeing in the factory, stationary and then some of the even non-Industrial, so to speak, the consumer and life sciences. Just for folks who get nervous about the strength of mobile second derivative slowdowns, obviously inevitable over the next few quarters. Some of those other end markets, what are you seeing from them?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So David, it's Tom. I would just in round numbers characterize it. So distribution was high-single digits, mobile high-single digits as well, Industrial kind of in that 3% to 4% range, and then when you blend the whole things that's how you get to 6% organic growth that we had in the quarter. And I think that's kind of to be expected in distribution right now, and high single digits I think has been influenced by some of the recovery in oil and gas, and some of the general Industrial supply chain, that supports all that. We fully expect that to kind of glide over the next couple of quarters down to a more nominal growth level.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
It's interesting mobile is not double-digit. I guess for diversity of your end markets, that's encouraging to hear, it's not just mobile. But can you help me a little bit on factory floor and stationary then? What are you actually seeing, and is it accelerating, is it big one-off-type projects? Just for a little better understanding, trying to look beyond the mobile markets.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well, the Industrial, which would be the stationary stuff, is in that approximate 4% level.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
But I'm just saying what are you seeing there, what is driving that? Is that any particular geographies or big projects? Just trying to understand how much we can assume. Is that something still on the come, so to speak, it can stay at this level or even accelerate? Or as mobile slows, expect stationary factory to, at best, stay kind of where it is on growth?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think stationary is going to be pretty consistent from what I've seen so far. Remember, our stationery includes buckets that are high – it is a bit of a mixture, you've got telecom and semicon that are very high, you've got power gen that's soft right now, life science soft, but we view that it'd go on to more neutral for FY 2018. So it's a mixture of things that make up, that's the way we classify Industrial.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
That's helpful. Thank you for the extra time. I appreciate it.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay. Thanks, David. Okay. This concludes our Q&A and our earnings call for today. Thank you everybody for joining us. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout today to take your calls should you have further questions. Thanks everybody. Have a good day.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp. Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.
Analysts:
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC David Raso - Evercore ISI Group Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, there will be a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Suever, Chief Financial Officer. Ma'am, you may begin.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you, Shannon. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's third quarter fiscal 2017 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio web-cast replay, will be accessible on the company's investor information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's call agenda appears on slide number 3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the third quarter of fiscal year 2017. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's third quarter fiscal year 2017 performance, together with the guidance for full fiscal year 2017. Tom will provide a few summary comments, and then we'll open the call for a Q&A session. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to slide number 4.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks Cathy, and welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation this morning. I'd like to take a moment to congratulate Cathy on her new role as Chief Financial Officer, which we announced earlier this month. We will certainly miss Jon Marten, who announced his retirement; we thank Jon for his great leadership and service during his 30 years with the company. We're very fortunate to have someone of Cathy's leadership and experience to step into this important role, Cathy has 30 years of experience in operational and financial roles at Parker, and has been acting CFO since November of last year. This seamless transition is an indicator of the effectiveness of our leadership succession planning at Parker. Now, moving onto the results, I'd like to share highlights of our third quarter results, which were strong across many measures, give you an update on the CLARCOR integration, and comment on our changes to the fiscal year 2017 guidance. Before I get into the financials, I'd like to first report on our safety performance since keeping our people safe is our highest priority and our most important measure. During the third quarter of 2017, we were able to reduce our recordable injuries by 28% compared to the prior year. Importantly, we reduced our lost time due to injuries by 39% compared with the prior year period. This builds on a significant year-over-year improvement in the last several years, and it's even more impressive considering the increase in volume we've experienced this quarter. This improvement is being driven by strong leadership, training, and engagement of our team members globally through high-performance teams that are focused on achieving the goal of zero accidents. Now onto the financial highlights for our third quarter results
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Tom. Please refer to slide number 5. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.11 versus $1.51 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of 40%. Third quarter earnings have been adjusted to exclude CLARCOR acquisition related expenses of $0.27 per share incurred during the quarter and business realignment expenses of $0.09 per share, which compares to business realignment expenses of $0.14 per share for the same quarter last year. On slide number 6. You will find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.51 for the third quarter of fiscal year – fiscal 2016 to $2.11 for the third quarter of this year. Increases included higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.44 per share, of which Legacy Parker was $0.37 and CLARCOR contributed $0.07. Lower income taxes as compared to the prior year equated to an increase of $0.18, due largely to the stock option expense tax credit, while lower other expense and the impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.03. Adjusted per share income was reduced by $0.05 due to higher interest expense and corporate G&A. Moving to slide number 7, we review total Parker's sales and segment operating margin for the third quarter. Total company organic sales for the third quarter increased by 5.7%, compared to the same quarter, last year. There was a 5.6% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 1%. Total segment operating margins adjusted for realignment costs as well as CLARCOR acquisition related expenses was 16.1%, versus 14.7% for the same quarter last year. Business realignment costs incurred in the quarter were $16 million, versus $25 million, last year. CLARCOR acquisition related costs included in segment operating income totaled $26 million in the quarter. The increased adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $503 million, versus $417 million, last year reflects the impact of organic growth, combined with the benefits yielded from our simplification initiatives. Moving to slide number 8, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the third quarter, North American organic sales increased by 3.8%, compared to the same quarter, last year. Acquisitions contributed 9.7% impact to sales, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 0.2%. Operating margin for the third quarter adjusted for realignment and CLARCOR acquisition related costs was 18.2% of sales, versus 16.9% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred totaled $4 million, as compared to $9 million in the prior-year. CLARCOR acquisition related costs included in operating income totaled $26 million during the quarter. Adjusted operating income was $258 million, as compared to $211 million driven by strong incremental margins on increased revenues and lower fixed cost. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on slide number 9. Organic sales for the third quarter in the Industrial International segment increased to 9.5%%. Acquisitions positively impacted sales by 3.7%%, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 2.5%. Operating margin for the third quarter, adjusted for business realignment costs, was 14.5% of sales versus 11.9% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $11 million, as compared to $16 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $164 million as compared to $121 million, which again reflects strong incremental margins on increased revenues and lower fixed costs. I'll now move to slide number 10 to review the Aerospace Systems Segment. Organic revenues increased 2.9% for the third quarter, with flat growth in OEM sales, aftermarket demand helped drive growth in both commercial and military businesses during the quarter. Operating margin for the third quarter, adjusted for realignment costs was 14.2% of sales versus 15.1% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $2 million compared to $1 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $82 million as compared to $85 million, reflecting the impact of higher development costs during the current quarter. Moving to slide number 11 with the detail of order rates by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures, and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three months rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders improved to positive 8% for the quarter end. Diversified Industrial North American orders increased to a year-over-year 9% change. Diversified Industrial International orders increased year-over-year to a positive 13% for the quarter. And Aerospace Systems orders were flat year-over-year. In slide number 12, we report cash flow from operating activities. Year-to-date, cash flow from operating activities was $789 million or 9.2% of sales, this compares to 8.4% of sales for the same period last year. When adjusted for the $220 million discretionary pension contribution made in the first quarter, cash from operating activities was very strong at 11.8% of sales. This compares to 10.8% of sales for the same period last year, adjusted for the $200 million discretionary pension contribution made in the prior year. In addition to the discretionary pension contribution, the significant uses of cash year-to-date have been $4.1 billion for acquisitions, $262 million for the company's repurchase of common shares, $257 million for the payment of shareholder dividend, and $145 million or 1.7% of sales for capital expenditures. Full year earnings guide for fiscal year 2017 is outlined on slide number 13. Guidance is being provided on both on as reported and an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of $48 million for the full year. Adjusted segment operating margins, below the line items, and earnings per share exclude expected CLARCOR acquisition related expenses of $103 million for total fiscal year 2017. Total sales are expected to be in the range of positive 4.9% to positive 6.9% as compared to the prior year. Full year organic growth at the midpoint is up 1.9%, acquisitions in the guidance are expected to positively impact sales by 5.1%. Currency in the guidance is expected to have a negative 1% impact on sales. We've calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended March 31 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the final quarter of fiscal year 2017. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 14.7% and 14.9%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.6% and 15.8%. The full year guidance at the midpoint for below the line items which includes corporate G&A, interest and other expense is $470 million on an as reported basis and $425 million on an adjusted basis. The full year tax rate is now projected at 27%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full year guidance is 136 million shares. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $6.90 to $7.20 or $7.05 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $7.70 or $8.00 or $7.85 at the midpoint. This adjusted earnings per share guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $48 million for the full fiscal year 2017. The effect of this restructuring on earnings per share is approximately $0.25. Savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be $30 million and are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. In addition adjusted guidance excludes $103 million of CLARCOR acquisition related expenses for fiscal 2017, equating to $0.55 earnings per share. Our revised guidance now includes the benefits and the costs from the CLARCOR and Helac acquisitions completed during the third quarter. We would ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full-year 2017 guidance at the midpoint are sales are divided 45% first half, 55% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 43% first half, 57% second half, adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is divided 45%/55%. Fourth quarter of 2017 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $2.22 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $0.07 of projected business realignment expenses and $0.19 of projected CLARCOR acquisition-related expenses. Slide number 14, you'll find a breakout of CLARCOR's impact on our fiscal 2017. CLARCOR sales contributed $136 million in the third quarter and are forecasted to be $369 million for Q4, resulting in a full 2017 sales impact of $505 million. CLARCOR acquisition-related expenses were $16 million in Q2, $51 million in Q3, and are expected to be $36 million during Q4. CLARCOR's earnings per share impact on an as-reported basis was a negative $0.09 in Q2, negative $0.24 in Q3, and is expected to be a negative $0.14 in Q4. The earnings per share impact of CLARCOR adjusted for acquisition-related expenses was an accretive $0.04 in Q3 and is expected to be $0.04 in Q4. These earnings per share amounts include CLARCOR-related amortization, which is presently estimated to be $130 million per year, additional depreciation estimated to be $13 million per year, and incremental interest expense of $73 million per year. Please note that Q3 included only the month of March and this year March had a high number of shipping days, which helped with absorption of fixed costs. The estimates for Q4 represent a more normal level of quarterly sales and earnings per share accretion for making assumptions going forward. On slide number 15, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal-year 2017 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $7.85 per share at the midpoint, compared to the prior guidance of $7.30 per share. Increases include $0.52 from stronger segment operating income, of which CLARCOR is forecasted to contribute $0.21. Additionally, a lower tax rate, other expenses, and corporate G&A resulted in a $0.07 per share increase. The decreases include a $0.12 per share reduction from higher interest expense and $0.02 from a modestly higher share count. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that might close during the remainder of fiscal 2017. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I'll turn the call back to you for your summary.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Cathy. We've continued to make progress through fiscal 2017 and our third quarter continued this momentum. I'd like to thank our team members around the world for their dedicated efforts. We are making meaningful progress with the new Win Strategy, which is designed to drive top quartile performance versus our proxy peers and generate long-term shareholder value. All signs point to a strong close to the fiscal year. More importantly we continue to see opportunities that will allow us to achieve our key financial objectives by the end of fiscal 2020, which includes organic sales growth of 150 basis points higher than the rate of global industrial production, 17% segment operating margins and a compound annual growth rate and earnings per share of 8% over this five-year period. This is a special year for us at Parker as we celebrate our 100 year anniversary. We are very proud of our history and confident of the bright future that we see in front of us. So, with that, at this time, we're ready to take questions. So, Shannon, if you could go ahead and get it started.
Operator:
Thank you. Our first question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel. You may begin.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
If you have the numbers handy, could talk about what the incremental margins were excluding the acquisitions?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Why don't I talk about excluding CLARCOR, we've done it multiple ways here to analyze our core business results, but looking at just excluding CLARCOR, we're in the range of – the incremental margins in the third quarter were in the range of the high 40%s.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
And I think you had fairly considerably higher incremental margins in the last quarter and probably even at the high 40%s, which is very good, was maybe a little lower than expected. Was there anything in there that dragged those down in the quarter or how should we be thinking about those incremental margins going forward?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think it's normal for us to be in the high 40%s as we're coming – we're growing and markets are improving. We've seen some also benefit from the simplification efforts we've been making, and I'm giving you a broad total Parker number. On the industrial side, it was higher, in the 50%s. So, it depends on which of the segment of the business you're looking at.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nathan, this is Tom. Because aerospace was a little challenged with some extra development costs in the quarter that kind of deflated the marginal return on sales a little bit. If you back that out, just look at industrial and then also take all the acquisitions out, we're in the mid-50%s. Now, I would not project a mid-50% MROS for us going forward. We tend to have the first quarter to up about that level, and then glide back down to a more steady state of plus 30%, but these margins are really, really stellar that we put up in this quarter.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Are those aerospace development costs projected to increase or to continue at that level?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Nathan, this was – in this quarter, we pulled in some development works to help some of our customers get to the end of their – to get their development cost programs finished. So, it was more cost that had been planned for fiscal 2018 that we pulled into this third quarter.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. So, it should glide down then. And just a question on industrial, clearly Parker usually is a beneficiary early in the cycle of inventory restocking in the channels. Can you talk about what you think is maybe the growth that you're seeing there, that's due to inventory restocking?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Nathan, it's Lee. I mean, I think the exciting part for us, industrial in North America is we saw a lot of our distributor partners see a substantial increase in their backlog throughout the quarter. So that's had a knock-on effect of order entry and shipments. I'm sure there's some marginal inventory restocking, but I wouldn't call that a significant driver of what's happening, I would characterize it more as real demand.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
That's helpful. Thanks, I'll get back in the queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. You may begin.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Hi, good morning. One question and then I guess a follow-up. Tom just to be clear on the last question with the incremental margins, I guess more broadly, we shouldn't assume that CLARCOR dampens incremental margins assuming things continue to recover, so we should think about sort of Parker – you know what I mean? We should think about Parker's historical incremental margins and assume that's how we think about things going forward. I just want to make sure there is no short-term issues with the integration of CLARCOR? And then, second, obviously the orders inflected higher broadly, if we think about North America, although easier comps and on the international side, so Lee, perhaps you could provide some color on which markets inflected more positively versus last quarter or last year. Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay, Jamie, I'll start then I'll hand it over to Lee for the markets. On MROS, I think with CLARCOR all in (27:43) you should see us do what we've historically done. If – that plus a little bit more, because everything we've done as a company, with the new Win Strategy, the fixed costs that we've taken out, simplification. So I think you could model historical plus a little bit better. On the integration, it's going terrific. I'm very pleased with integration so far. The teamwork between both companies basically becoming one, they are the talent that the cultural fit, all the synergies, very interesting, the synergies we thought when we're kind of looking at it, more isolated now that we're looking at it jointly. There is a lot of harmony between both teams looking at and saying we've created, this is a dynamite list. So we're very encouraged and there is – as we go forward, we update you in August give you a better clarity as to the cost to achieve and the savings for that fiscal year, but we're off to a good start with that. And then on the markets, I would just tell you that's it's nice – it's really nice having sat in this room now for 10 quarters to have a quarter where we have an exciting organic growth story to tell you. I mean, it's across pretty much board, and I'll let Lee give you the color on that.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Sorry, Tom, just a follow-up on the incremental though, but in – obviously it's very encouraging that you think you can do a little better than where we were historically and you don't see sort of price cost is an issue as well like that's not to be short-term.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
No.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay. All right, great. Sorry, Lee. Go ahead.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
No, that's fine. So I think, I wanted to just to highlight here, which was kind of nice, this is the strongest orders growth we've had since Q1 of FY 2012. So it's been some time that it's been and we've had that kind of inflection. Just talking about the industrial markets. As we look through all our end-markets and we track these kind of on a giant heat map, it's hard to find any significant market that's natural positive year-over-year order entry growth during the quarter. And really, Jamie, to highlight some of the key markets, I think if you bucket all the natural resource end markets, those continue to grow during the quarter. We kind of saw some of it last quarter that I highlighted. But this would include agriculture, construction equipment, mining, oil and gas. The number in oil and gas rigs, North America, nearly doubled from a year ago, and we've just seen an appreciable pickup in quotes and order entry activity for a lot of rigs that have been stored where parts have the cannibalized. So, it's really not new rig activity, it's just a lot of MRO, which is great business for our guys. We also saw a really nice rebound in activity from our distributor partners around the world. So, for the first time and we're up worldwide with all their distributor partners for some time. And I'd say other notable markets that grew during the quarter, microelectronics was strong, HVAC in our refrigeration, very strong telecom, Class 8 truck, were all really strong markets. If I can, I'll just – as long as I'm going here Jamie, I'll just cover the regions real quick, I'm not going to walk through the markets, but just give you some color on the regions.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, in North America, as I just talked was very strong really encouraged by the increasing end market activity. And it was really nice just to see a significant increase in backlog with some of our distributor partners that really been hit hard by the oil and gas, natural resource end market collapse. In EMEA, we saw strong order entry growth during the quarter, and it kind of built as the quarter went on, in fact this will be the first year we expect year-over-year organic growth in three years in EMEA. So, we're hoping that's going to continue as we go forward. And then Asia, Asia is really strong. I mean, China continues the lead with strong industrial and natural resource end markets, and the strength in China really has been led by a significant infrastructure investment and strong housing market. And we also see emerging markets in Southeast Asia continuing to show great growth. So, we're really happy with what's happening. There is clearly a positive global sentiment to growth right now anywhere you go, but I think we'll be happier if we see a couple of more quarters of this can order entry growth going forward.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC:
Okay, great. That was very helpful. I'll get back in queue.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thank you.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. You may begin.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you and congratulations, Cathy and then Jon, if you're listening. You'll certainly be missed and we definitely wish you well. So, first question, maybe just staying with the discussion on organic growth. Did trends improve as we progressed through the quarter, how trends started out in April, any commentary you can have on that, that would be helpful?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. The trend – Joe this is Tom. The trends through the quarter, North America and Europe showed steady progress through the quarter and Asia Pacific and Latin America were pretty much consistent, stayed at a high level for the quarter, and April is consistent with what we saw and it's reflected in the guide. So, in general, I think Lee kind of hit it, we're encouraged, but couple of more quarters would just solidify that for us.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. That's helpful. Maybe when I kind of take a look at your organic growth guidance for the year, I recognize the commentary around March being a healthier quarter from a shipment perspective for CLARCOR. I'm just trying to break up your total organic growth guidance in the North America business. It seems like you were expecting at least high single-digit maybe even low double-digit organic growth in that business for 4Q. And I just want to make sure that I'm calculating things right for CLARCOR, so any other detail you can give on the components, it would be helpful?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Joe. Yeah, we're expecting for North America high single-digits organic growth in the fourth quarter. CLARCOR right now is running more mid-single digits, but total Parker North America high single-digits.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then maybe if I could ask one more on CLARCOR, the $103 million in costs this year, how much integration cost, I think you guys had highlighted about $90 million in integration costs that you expected to take on CLARCOR to get the synergy benefits. How much of any of those integration costs are going through this year, and maybe if there is some cadence for 2018 as well, that would be helpful?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. It's very small so far this year and expected in the fourth quarter as we're just getting started, we do have the full-time team on board, and so we're including the cost for that team. I would say, you can think of it in terms of a couple of million dollars for FY 2017. And then for FY 2018, we're expecting, I think initially, we told you the $90 million would be split about 75% of it would be in the first and second years, you can continue to think in those terms for FY 2018.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, great. I'll get back in queue. Thanks, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from John Inch with Deutsche Bank. You may begin.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Good morning. So Cathy, CLARCOR was what, mid-single digit organic growth in this quarter, I realize you only owned it for a month, but that – if you just look at their quarter, is that about the number?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Because it was only the month of March with the high sales compared to a normal quarterly month sales, it was higher than mid-single digits for just the month of March. It was actually double-digits.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So it was double – all right, that makes more sense. So you think it reverts to more of a mid-single because – why again, just because they had such a big March?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes. So March had 23 shipping days and that's a bit unusual. When you look at shipping days per month on a quarterly average, it's closer to 21 days. And CLARCOR tends to have heavy burden of fixed costs, and if you think about amortization being layered in there, you get quite a bit of absorption improvement when you have higher volume. And they saw that in March, but that isn't a normal trend.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
And then – okay. So I wanted to ask about the tax rate. I mean, obviously, I am assuming the stock option expense issue is sort of driving this lower quarterly, is there not a better way to forecast this like what – your tax rate for the year, do you assume that no options get exercised as part of the derivation of this because it did add a significant amount to EPS versus the forecast last quarter, is this something we've just got to live with or what?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. John, we look at that and we do not forecast any because there is so many variables involved. We don't know how many people will be exercising their options, we don't know what options they're going to exercise at what grant value, and we'd have to also know what we've already incurred as expense because it's only the differential of where they exercise versus what we had already recognized as expense. So there are so many variables that we choose to not try to forecast that, so it's an upside.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
No, no, that's fine. I just want to make sure, I'm not missing something. There is a lot of interest expense running through for CLARCOR, maybe Tom or Lee or Cathy, can you remind us what's you plan to deleverage? And when do you start paying that debt back, so we get even higher accretion, because I guess accretion is running kind of $0.15 to $0.20, but could be up a lot more if you could pay this debt down?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
John, I'll start at a high level and I'll let Cathy fill in, add any more details, but our goal is, we're about 3.2 times debt-to-EBITDA. Over the next 24 months to 36 months, we want to drive it down to the 2.0 debt-to-EBITDA. So, we're going – the cash flow, we're very proud of at almost 12%, CFOA, we're going to be using that to help pay down the debt and we're encouraged by what we've seen so far as far as synergies and our ability to put these businesses together, so we think cash will continue to be a very strong component of it. But that's the focus is driving that down.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Well, people are already building out to 2018, I guess the question is how much – are you still going to make a big pension contribution next year or do you channel that into debt, like how much debt can we reduce in 2018 to kind of help us with the accretion?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yes, a little too early to tell, we're having only CLARCOR for one month, John, but we do – we are optimistic in performance we're seeing and what they will provide for us in cash, we did purposely keep some of the new debt short-term, so that we can be paying it down as we have the cash available, but too soon to tell how much it will happen in FY 2018.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. And then just last, I think Lee you were in China recently, is China getting better, it seems Chine is a source of strength for a lot of industrials this quarter, versus last quarter, but you guys had strong Asia-PAC results before, because of I guess the build out of your distribution network and so forth, if you just try and pro forma for that, what's going on in China, did it strengthened for you or is it sort of status quo strong or anything you could say about it would be helpful? Thanks.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well. It's been strong the last couple of quarters and I talked about this infrastructure build. You've seen – if I look at all the Chinese national manufacturers' construction equipment. I mean their production has more than doubled than what it was a year ago. So, it's just really strong, but there has been strength over the last year in rail, there has been a lot of strength in life science industries that we serve. So, it's been positive across many different fronts.
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
In fact, when you look at all the end markets in China, it's hard to find anything that's red.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
I don't know, your folks on the ground that will think it can be sustained, I guess is where I'm going or is it a little bit...
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Well...
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
...stimulus and all that other stuff?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think the consensus is going to be sustained, but I mean you know how that works. So...
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
...there is definitely a lot of things driving it right now.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. Growth Chinese style. Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Here we go.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. You may begin.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thank you. Good morning.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
A couple questions, you mentioned earlier that you really didn't see any meaningful restocking in the North America distribution channel. Did you notice any occurring in the North American based OEMs, I'm just wondering if they maybe staging for further production increases?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Andy, I think order entry up is across many different markets. So, those customers are placing orders. To what extent they're trying to create a buffer of inventory is really hard for me to see, their say. But I would characterize most of the demand that we're seeing is real demand based on what I see on production rates with our customers is being passed through.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Lee. And then I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more on the revised outlook for the Industrial North American margin, you shaved 20 basis points, not a lot, but 20 basis points of the top end. Was that all CLARCOR or was there anything else that you were considering in that guidance revision?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
North America, Andy, we've actually bumped it up, if you consider pulling CLARCOR out, so what you see as the little bit of deterioration is CLARCOR related.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore ISI. You may begin.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Hi, just one question. I was curious, I know you're speaking encouragingly about some of your end customers, end demand, not just stocking. But just so we can kind of baseline where do you feel we're launching into fiscal 2018 guide, if the order rates stayed where they are, the comps do get a little bit harder, but I'm just trying to understand, where are the orders exiting fiscal 2017 on a year-over-year basis if we just run it sequentially flat for the quarter?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
David, it's Tom. We can't predict it at this point. I mean I know everybody would like me to start talking about FY 2018 in April, but FY 2018 is hard enough to talk about in August. So we'll give you the color on that, we just started our process internally. So, I'm going to just ask you to wait until we get to August.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Well that's why I asked it the way I did, I wasn't asking for a prediction, I was asking current levels, run straight out flat sequentially, where would we exit the year?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Really, so I mean, have to go do that math, but part of it'll be (43:15) doing that math, but also, we'll be talking to our customers, looking at economic forecasts. So, it's not just trying to take current quarter and projecting it out and comparing it to prior periods. It's actually looking and understanding end demand and what's going on. So, we will do that, but that's not the only factor that will influence it.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
Well – I mean, again just mathematically, the comp gets a little harder, right, negative 6 a year ago for this quarter, it's negative 1 comp next quarter, and you can double stack it, however you want to look at it. But I'm just trying to get a feel, we're up 8%, or especially the Industrial business is up 9% and 13%. If I can just maintain this level, comp actually gets a little easier in North America, a little harder internationally. I'm just trying to make sure we manage expectations, but also understand the launch for 2018 CLARCOR side, the core business, again it's hard – you have the exact numbers, but it would seem like Industrial, the orders would still be running up, call it, high single digit at a minimum on the two Industrial businesses, Aero obviously it's over 12 months, a little harder comp analysis there, but is that a fair assessment? And again, it is just the math, and if you want to talk offline, that's fine, I'm just trying to understand for modeling 2018, should at least, talking the Industrial businesses, the orders just being flat sequentially, should launch into 2018, up high-single digit?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
David, I think the best approach would be take it offline. You and Robin and Ryan can talk about in the follow-up call.
David Raso - Evercore ISI Group:
All right. Appreciate that. Okay. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. You may begin.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi, guys.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Hi, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Can we go back to CLARCOR again, just talking about the synergies, I know you're just working through everything, but when we did our bottom-up analysis, the one assessment we made was that there probably wasn't that much opportunity on the purchasing or strategic sourcing side. Could you maybe describe to us where we could be wrong on that or where do you think the opportunities will be? I know you don't want to break into buckets some of the other synergy opportunities, but at least on the strategic sourcing side, just give us a little bit more color there? And at least whether you think there's some overlap that you can achieve savings?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Sure, Ann. This is Tom. We actually think the supply chain side has a tremendous amount of synergies because CLARCOR is a very decentralized company similar to us. However, they ran a very decentralized buying organization. So they didn't leverage any of their spend or very little of the spend across their various businesses. So, you've got leverage there, first, just by itself. But then combining it with our spend as well, you have that aggregation. So, we see big upside. And I think all of you know, we've been careful on breaking the buckets up, because obviously, some of those buckets are sensitive to how you – how we would disclose these things. But you can rest assured, we have a very finite detail by major cost bucket and supply chain being one of the largest actually, and it's the natural things you would think of. The Win Strategy initiatives, corporate SG&A, supply chain, leveraging the manufacturing capabilities for both of our companies. And the advantage here is not just looking at one isolated, it's the combination, so looking at both of our manufacturing capabilities and leveraging that. And just part of how we did – we did this with our own insight and what's really been great is now with the CLARCOR team's viewpoint, and we've been spot on as far as in agreement as what we think we need to do, which has been very encouraging.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. And is there a point in time where you will at least break out the buckets, at least on the strategic sourcing side, I know you said it's a major part of the $140 million, will you break that out for us at any point?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
I think what we'll certainly do is every quarter, starting in August we'll give you the projection that we think we'll do for that fiscal year as far as cost to achieve, then the synergies that we're going to get and then we'll update how we're doing every quarter against that. The supply chain savings, I am not worried about disclosing that, so if that's something in particular that you'd like to see, we can provide more detail. I also don't want to scatter the herd on my suppliers either, so we'll have to think about how much of that we actually do. But the team on the phone has to – you have to be very confident that we have this down to a very finite detail by major bucket. There is various sensitivities as you disclose that, that we'll just have to consider, but certainly we're going to give you the total and how we're tracking against it.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I appreciate that and I appreciate you not wanting to tip your hand to your suppliers, that's certainly understandable. Can you just talk – spend a little bit finally about the one month. You're one month in, you're probably talking to the CLARCOR team well before that. Has there been any upside surprise, anything that you've learned in the short time that you've owned CLARCOR that maybe you hadn't anticipated prior to the acquisition?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Ann, it's Tom again. I guess the encouraging thing is there's been no negative surprises, it's all been positive reinforcement and affirmation of the assumptions we made. And I am very pleased with the leadership talent and the strength of the organization. I am pleased with the cultural fit, I am pleased with the fact that both teams are working as one. When I look at these synergies and there's been a lot of buy-in as to what we have to do to make both of our filtration businesses, the best filtration business in the world. So – and I'm knocking on wood, I couldn't be happier with the start.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll leave it there, and get back in line. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks, Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mig Dobre with Baird. You may begin.
Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc:
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Just – I want to go back to this tax issue just to clarify something. Can you confirm that your adjusted tax rate in the quarter was just under 25%, first and foremost? And then I guess related to this, I'm trying to figure out, why the step-up sequentially in the fourth quarter in the tax rate? And whether or not, we should be really thinking about this number to migrating actually quite a bit lower than 27% for the year as a whole going forward?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Mig. Yes, you're correct in that our effective rate for the third quarter was 24.7%. And we are forecasting a higher rate in Q4, and that's really driven by – we have a lot of – a fair amount of the acquisition related expenses that we're incurring are going to be – are not tax deductible. So we're expecting to have to finish the year at an overall effective rate higher than what you saw come through in Q3, reflecting those non-deductible expenses, and also a little bit of shift in mix between U.S. and foreign. You're right in that there will be upside to the rate if we have a heavy amount of stock option exercises at the current stock price, it's likely going to be a nice credit for us, but we just have no way of forecasting how much that might be.
Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc:
All right. That's helpful. Thank you. And maybe to ask a demand question, when I'm looking at your various technology platforms that you're reporting, I'm looking at motion systems expense, for instance. That platform is down, call it, 20% versus the peak from a couple of years ago. How do you think about demand progression over the next few years? Really what I'm trying to get at is in order to get the prior peaks, what do we need to see in terms of volumes from OEMs versus maybe some other things that are internal initiatives for you such as market share gains, new products, things of this sort?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So Mig, it's Lee. I think when you think about motion systems, some of the big drivers in there are really around those natural resource end markets. So, think about construction equipment, mining, even land-based oil and gas. And I think what's encouraging is, globally, we're seeing a significant rebound on those. So, it's been a big driver of what's happening in China. So, it is trending in the way of getting us back to where we've been.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from (52:22) with Morgan Stanley. You may begin.
Unknown Speaker:
Thanks. I just wanted to ask a question about the longer term segment margin target. You've expressed confidence about this in the past. Obviously, this is before CLARCOR. So, I guess are you willing to comment on potential areas for upside to this goal, or perhaps if you don't want to comment at this time, is this something we should be looking for, I don't know, in the coming months as we think about fiscal 2018 guidance?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. Millie (52:47), it's Tom. Well, first of all, when we set those targets, they were top quartile performance threshold for our peer group and that continues to be a good number. I am very happy to relook at that number once we've achieved it. I don't want to de-motivate the team by moving it before we've actually achieved it. So, we're going to achieve it first, we're going to obviously continue to drive continuous improvement and we'll also look at what top quartile is running at that time because we see our abilities to continue to get more profitable all the time, but we're not going to move the 17% target until we actually achieve it.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Understood. And then I guess just as a quick follow-up. More of a clarification, I think, you mentioned price cost a little bit earlier in the Q&A session. I just want to clarify, you said, you don't think that that's going to be a challenge as the year goes on?
Lee C. Banks - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Millie (53:40), it's Lee. I mean, price cost absolutely is a challenge but I don't think it's going to be a challenge for us in terms of affecting margin. So, we've seen escalation in some key commodities, but we've also been able to realize price in certain parts of our channel. So we track our cost input, that's our PPI index and we track our kind of our sales number which is our selling price index and we've got a positive GAAP between the two and we expect that to continue going forward.
Unknown Speaker:
Okay. Understood. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Giordano with Cowen and Company. You may begin.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to get a sense of – as you look at the simplification outside of anything in CLARCOR, just – where do you think you are in that? How far along that spectrum have you progressed? And is 2018 like a bigger year potentially than 2017 in terms of the cost you can take out? Just how you're looking at that broader transition that you're doing?
Thomas L. Williams - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Joe, it's Tom. Again, I'd characterize it as early days still. There's some things that we moved out more on division consolidations and those type of things. But we'll continue to look at that and we'll certainly update you on the plans we might have there in the future. But the bigger area that has, I think, the most upside is that whole revenue complexity that looking at the product line simplification, that last couple percent of revenue and the complexity associated with that want to service our customer to make it faster and better experience for them, but also to redesign our organization and our processes and SG&A cost that supports that. So I am very encouraged because every time we look at that, I still see tremendous upside. That part that I just described, the product line complexity is hard work, I've described this as hand-to-hand combat, you got to go part number by part number to go through that. So that's why I characterize that it's still very early days because a company of our size with the number of part numbers, there's still a lot of work we're doing and we're very active on that, and I think you'll see that'd be a contributor for margin expansion for multiple years.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
And then on the – I think, you mentioned earlier today, $30 million you're planning on savings that are in guidance from the $48 million that you're spending this year. Is that like a realized $30 million for this year, like what's the exit rate and how much of that spilled over?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. That's a real number. We are benefiting $30 million this year and certainly that carries over and we will see some rollover full year impact from the initiatives we've done this year.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Of that $30 million, like how much have you done through three quarters and maybe that will kind of frame into next year?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. The majority of that is tail-end of the year, because some of the initiatives that we've done, it is – it takes time to see the benefit of it, so heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.
Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co. LLC:
Perfect. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. You may begin.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, just a couple housekeeping items on CLARCOR as you get it closed. I think you said $163 million in amortization, is that still a good number? And as you kind of put together your debt, how did the debt costs come out relative to your initial assumption?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
So, that $163 million was our initial estimate, but actually we're seeing that much lower, it's $130 million a year as we have preliminary – preliminarily estimated the beginning balance sheet, and we're still fine-tuning that and it may tweak slightly as we finish the fourth quarter. But right now, we're estimating a $130 million a year. The debt costs also came in lower. We were estimating additional interest expense of about $100 million, and that's now solidly in the books at $73 million incremental per year as we were able to get better rates on the bonds that we sold.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay, great. And then just within the 13% order growth in international, where do you get kind of place where Asia, Europe and LatAm were either exactly or directionally?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Sure, Jeff. We're seeing for Europe mid-single digits; Asia Pacific is mid-teens; and Latin America also in the mid-teen range.
Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Perfect. Thanks a lot.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. You may begin.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi, good morning, all. Thank you for taking the questions. Just a couple of quick fill-ins. Cathy, is there any type of shorter term step-up amortization that we should be thinking about that rolls off kind of quickly versus the longer term step that will be with us for a while?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah, good question, Steve, I'm glad you asked. So, in the number of one-off acquisition related expenses is the gross up of the value of the inventory that we bought from CLARCOR, that's about $39 million, and that will roll through cost of sales over a three-month period. So, we incurred one-third of that in March and we'll incur the rest of it in April and May and then that rolls off.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. So, just sort of thinking about that, if you're sort of in a $0.04 accretion for the fourth quarter, the number in 2018 would be higher than that because you wouldn't have the step-up accretion?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. But keep in mind that we have adjusted that out. So, the accretion that we're telling you has taken the impact of that out.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
So the $0.04 take that out already?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
The $0.04 is the run rate, correct.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Got it. Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then totally unrelated, but I'm just curious, I think you guys probably have a reasonable amount of visibility in Aerospace business and we sort of ticked down to zero and I know it's very chunky on a quarter-to-quarter basis with respect to orders, but does that business grow next year and as you see the programs come down the pike, how do we think about that in sort of in the next couple of years?
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Yeah. We still anticipate growth in Aerospace. What you see in the zero order rate for the 12-month rolling now in March – as of March 31, we had a pretty significant military OEM order come through in January of 2016, it was a multiyear order. That has now dropped from the numerator into the denominator causing tough comparables. So, it's a little bit of a misnomer. It's a little bit deceiving to see that flat. We do anticipate continued growth. We're seeing nice improvement these days in the MRO, especially the military MRO business. Commercial OEM is a little down year-over-year, but commercial MRO is strong. So, military good, commercial struggling a little bit in the OE side, but strong in the aftermarket side.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. I appreciate that. Thanks.
Operator:
Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Cathy Suever for closing remarks.
Catherine A. Suever - Parker-Hannifin Corp.:
Okay, thanks, Shannon. This concludes our Q&A and our earnings call. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. Robert and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your call should you have any further questions. Thank you everyone. Have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thanks for your participation. Have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Cathy Suever - Vice President, Corporate Controller and Acting Chief Financial Officer Tom Williams - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lee Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Andy Casey - Wells Fargo Securities Nathan Jones - Stifel John Inch - Deutsche Bank Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Securities Joe Giordano - Cowen and Company Joshua Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation’s Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Cathy Suever, Vice President, Corporate Controller and Acting Chief Financial Officer. Ma’am, you may begin
Cathy Suever:
Thank you, Chelsea. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin’s second quarter fiscal year 2017 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today’s presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company’s investor information website at phstock.com for 1 year following today’s call. On Slide #2, you will find the company’s Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations or any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning’s press release and are posted on Parker’s website at phstock.com. Today’s agenda appears on Slide #3. To begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the second quarter of fiscal year 2017. Following Tom’s comments, I will provide a review of the company’s second quarter fiscal year ‘17 performance, together with the guidance for fiscal year ‘17. Tom will provide a few summary comments, and then we will open the call for a question-and-answer session. This time, I will turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to Slide #4.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Cathy and welcome to everybody on the call and we appreciate your participation this morning. Today, I would like to share highlights on our second quarter results, a very strong quarter for Parker, give you an update on the CLARCOR transaction and comment on changes to our fiscal 2017 guidance. As I have shared before, keeping our people safe is our first priority, so I thought I’d once again report on that first. During the second quarter of 2017, we are able to reduce our recordable injuries by 31% compared to the prior year. This builds upon a 33% year-over-year improvement we posted comparing 2016 to 2015. This improvement is being driven by a combination of strong leadership, training and engagement of our team members globally through our high-performance team focus. Nationally, we have a long way to go to reach our goal of zero accidents, but I am very pleased with the progress we are making. Now to the financial highlights of our second quarter results. Overall, this was a very strong quarter for Parker. Second quarter sales were $2.67 billion, a 1% decline compared with the same quarter a year ago. Organic sales were basically flat, as the decline was primarily due to currency. This is largely in line with what we anticipated and continues a favorable trend with sales showing less of a decline quarter-to-quarter and top line growth expected to turn positive in the second half of our fiscal year. Order rates also continue to move in a positive direction for the second consecutive quarter. Total orders increased 5% compared with the same quarter last year. North America orders were flat, Industrial international orders were up 10% and then our aerospace systems segment orders were up 9%. Net income for the second quarter was $241.4 million as reported or $258.8 million adjusted, representing a 24% increase compared with adjusted net income in the second quarter of last year. Earnings per share were $1.78 as reported or $1.91 on an adjusted basis, a 26% increase in adjusted earnings per share compared with the same quarter last year. During the quarter, we did record a pre-tax gain of $45 million or $0.21 per share related to the sale of our Autoline product line. Autoline manufactures quick connectors for passenger car applications and was no longer a strategic fit within our portfolio. I am particularly pleased with our overall segment operating margin performance this quarter, which was a second quarter record at 14.4% as reported or 14.7% on an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins increased 120 basis points compared with the second quarter of fiscal 2016, which is an excellent year-over-year improvement. This is strong margin performance for Parker and reflects the benefits of our implementation of the new Win Strategy. Year-to-date, cash flow from operations, excluding a discretionary pension contribution, was 11.5% of sales, reflecting our ability to be a consistent generator of cash through economic cycles. Now just a few comments on capital allocation. As previously disclosed, clearance has been received with respect to the regulatory filings made on the pending CLARCOR transaction. These events satisfied important conditions to the closing of the CLARCOR transaction. Transaction remains subject to other closing conditions, including approval by the CLARCOR stockholders. Based on the current date for Parker’s special meeting on the stockholders on February 23, 2017 and subject to the satisfaction of all closing conditions, the parties currently expect the pending CLARCOR transaction to close on or about February 28, 2017. All of us are really looking forward to welcoming the CLARCOR team to Parker. Also note, yesterday, we announced the acquisition of Helac Corporation. Helac specializes in the design and manufacture of helical rotary actuators and attachments. This is a nice bolt-on acquisition for our Hydraulics Group that expands our actuator platform, providing a broader bill of material that we can leverage through our global channels. We are happy to welcome the Helac team to Parker. Last week, we also announced a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend, consistent with our desire to extend our record of increasing annual dividends paid, which now stands at 60 consecutive years. These actions reinforce our commitment to being a great deployer of cash in ways that generate increased long-term returns for our shareholders. Now moving to our revised FY ‘17 guidance. We have increased our earnings guidance for fiscal 2017. We are increasing our organic growth forecast for the second half of the fiscal year from 2.3% to 3.3% at the midpoint in our new guidance. However, this increase in organic revenue is being offset by currency headwinds resulting in essentially flat full year reported annual sales growth versus fiscal 2016. For fiscal year 2017, we are updating guidance for as-reported earnings in the range of $6.71 to $7.21 per share or $6.96 at the midpoint. On an adjusted basis, we expect earnings per share in the range of $7.05 to $7.55 or midpoint of $7.30. Earnings are adjusted for anticipated business realignment expenses of approximately $0.25 per share forecasted for fiscal 2017 and for acquisition of transaction-related expenses of $0.09, which were incurred in the second quarter. Our revised guidance does not include any benefits or costs from CLARCOR or Helac acquisitions in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal 2017. Guidance will be updated for these acquisitions in our next earnings call. And for now, I will hand things back to Cathy to review more details in the quarter and the fiscal 2017 guidance.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks, Tom. At this time, please refer to Slide #5. I will begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $1.91 versus $1.52 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of $0.39. Fiscal year ‘17 second quarter earnings include a gain on the sale of a product line of $0.21. Second quarter earnings have been adjusted to exclude CLARCOR transaction expenses of $0.09 incurred during the quarter and business realignment expenses of $0.04, which compares to business realignment expenses of $0.19 for the same quarter last year. On Slide #6, you will find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.52 for the second quarter FY ‘16 to $1.91 for the second quarter of this year. Increases to adjusted per share income included higher adjusted segment operating income of $0.15, reduced other expense of $0.38 per share due to the sale of a product line and a currency again in Q2 of this year versus a currency loss in the same quarter last year, and the impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.02 per share. Adjusted per share income was reduced by $0.09 due to a higher effective tax rate as compared to the prior year. During Q2 of ‘16, the tax rate was significantly reduced following the passage of the U.S. tax extenders bill. Finally, higher corporate G&A versus prior year as a result of favorable market-based incentive adjustments in the prior year equated to a reduction of $0.07 per share this year. Moving to Slide #7, we have reviewed total company sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter. Total company organic sales in the second quarter decreased by 0.5% compared to the same quarter last year. There was 0.3% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 1.1%. As Tom mentioned, total company segment operating margin reached a second quarter record of 14.4% on an as reported basis. Total segment operating margins adjusted for realigned – sorry, realignment costs incurred was 14.7% versus 13.5% for the same quarter last year. Business realignment costs incurred in the quarter were $8 million versus $35 million last year. The increased adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $392 million versus $366 million last year reflects the impact of the new Win Strategy, complemented by increased progress towards stabilization in several industrial end markets. Moving to Slide #8, I will discuss the business segments, starting with the Diversified Industrial North America segment. For the second quarter, North American organic sales decreased by 2.8% as compared to the same quarter last year. There was no impact from acquisitions, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 0.6%. Operating margins for the second quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 16.6% of sales versus 15% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred totaled $2 million as compared to $20 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $186 million as compared to $174 million, driven by favorable incremental margins. I will continue with the Diversified Industrial International segment on Slide #9. Organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment increased by 3.0%, acquisitions positively impacted sales by 0.8%, while currency negatively impacted the quarter by 2.4%. Operating margin for the second quarter, adjusted for business realignment costs, was 13.1% of sales versus 11% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $4 million as compared to $14 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $132 million as compared to $109 million, which reflects strong incremental margins on increased revenues and lower fixed costs. I will now move to Slide #10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues declined $0.016 – 1.6% for the second quarter. While growth in military OEM and military aftermarket was positive, commercial OEM continued to be negatively pressured in business jets, commercial helicopters and widebody commercial aircraft production, resulting in a modest year-over-year decline. Operating margin for the second quarter, adjusted for realignment costs was 13.5% of sales versus 14.8% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $1 million compared to minimal business realignment expenses in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $74 million as compared to $82 million last year. Prior period margins benefited from comparatively high commercial aftermarket sales volume. Moving to Slide #11, we have the details for orders, changes by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders improved to a positive 5% for the quarter end. Diversified Industrial North American orders improved to a year-over-year zero percent change. Diversified Industrial International orders increased year-over-year to positive 10% for the quarter and Aerospace Systems orders grew year-over-year at a positive 9%. On Slide #12, we report cash flow from operations. Year-to-date, cash flow from operating activities was $404 million or 7.5% of sales. This compares to 6.5% of sales for the same period last year. When adjusted for the $220 million discretionary pension contribution made in the first quarter, cash from operating activities was 11.5% of sales. This compares to 10.1% of sales for the same period last year, adjusted for the $200 million discretionary pension contribution made in the prior year. In addition to the discretionary pension contribution, the significant uses of cash year-to-date were $196 million for the company’s repurchase of common shares, $169 million for the payment of shareholder dividends and $72 million for capital expenditures equating to 1.3% of sales. The full year earnings guidance for fiscal year 2017 is outlined on Slide #13. Guidance is being provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of $48 million, which are forecasted to be incurred throughout fiscal year 2017. Adjusted below the line items and earnings per share exclude CLARCOR transaction expenses of $16 million incurred during fiscal year ‘17 Q2. Total sales are expected to be in the range of minus 2.3% to a positive 1.3% as compared to the prior year. Organic growth at the midpoint is 0.4%. Acquisitions in the guidance are expected to positively impact sales by 0.4%. Currency in the guidance is expected to have a negative 1.3% impact on sales. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of the quarter ended December 31, 2016 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the upcoming fiscal year 2017. For total Parker, as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.1% and 15.5%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.5% and 15.9%. The midpoint of the forecasted adjusted margin is 110 basis points above fiscal year 2016. The full year guidance at the midpoint for below the line items, which includes corporate G&A, interest and other expense, is $425 million on an as reported basis and $409 million on an adjusted basis. The full year tax rate is now projected at 27.5%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full year guidance is 135.7 million shares. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $6.71 to $7.21 or $6.96 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $7.05 to $7.55 or $7.30 at the midpoint. This adjusted earnings per share guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $48 million to be incurred in fiscal year 2017. The effect of this restructuring on earnings per share is approximately $0.25. Savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be $30 million and are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. In addition, adjusted guidance excludes $16 million of CLARCOR transaction expenses incurred in Q2 equating to $0.09 earnings per share. Our revised guidance does not include any benefits nor costs from the CLARCOR or Helac acquisitions in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2017. Guidance will be updated for these acquisitions in our next earnings call. We would ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for purposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for full year 2017 guidance at the midpoint are; sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 46% first half, 54% second half. Adjusted earnings per share first half, second half is $3.52 and $3.78 at the midpoint. Q3 ‘17 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $1.74 per share at the midpoint, and this excludes $0.09 per share of projected business realignment expenses. On Slide #14, you will find a reconciliation of the major components of fiscal year ‘17 adjusted earnings per share guidance of $7.30 per share at the midpoint from prior fiscal year ‘17 earnings per share of $6.75 per share. Increases include $0.09 from stronger Q2 segment operating income, $0.35 from lower other expense and $0.12 from lower SG&A expense and a lower effective tax rate. The decrease includes a $0.01 per share reduction from slightly higher interest expense. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that might close during fiscal year ‘17. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I will turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Cathy and I am glad we were able to continue our progress through 2017 with a very strong second quarter. I would like to thank Parker team members around the world for their dedicated efforts. We have made meaningful progress with initiatives designed to improve margins, but we have also taken decisive actions to strengthen and sustain our business for the long-term and create value for our shareholders. All signs point to an improving second half of fiscal 2017 and we are positioned for even greater success under the framework provided by the Win Strategy as we go into the future. I would also like to point out that Parker-Hannifin celebrates its 100th year anniversary this year. We are very proud of the efforts put forth by all who have come before us and the achievements we have made throughout our long history. Today, as the global leader in motion control technologies, we are focused on engineering the success of our stakeholders as we work in partnership with our customers to solve the world’s greatest engineering challenges. With the actions and investments we are taking today, we are ensuring a bright future for Parker as we enter our second century. And with that, at this time, we are ready to take questions. So Chelsea, if you want to go ahead and get us started.
Operator:
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning guys.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. So maybe just, first, can you just talk about anything that’s really driving the more positive margins? Is that just feeling a little bit better about volumes? And then Tom, it looks like there is some corporate expense – lower corporate expense if you exclude this gain. And I am just wondering what are the moving pieces there and then in particular, are there any savings captured by the simplification program? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Okay, Jeff. This is Tom. I will take the margin side and I will have Cathy cover the corporate expenses. But the margins is really a holistic impact that we have seen with the Win Strategy and the changes we have made to the Win Strategy. I would say we made, clearly, market adjustments. When we saw the market turn down, we restructured the company. But we have also done a strategic restructuring that focused combination of footprint and SG&A and that combination has dramatically lowered our fixed cost structure of the company. I think probably the best way to visualize that for people is the line we have put in the annual report this year, but we went from 59,000 people on the team, going back probably about 4 years ago, to 48,000 people. And we have done that through a variety of initiatives, responding to the market, looking at footprint, looking at SG&A and in general trying to make the company simpler, faster, easier to do business with, with our customers. And ultimately, that’s what’s driving the margin enhancements that you see. The part that I am very encouraged by is that we are in very early days of this whole journey. We continue to find more upside and more positives as we work through this simplification program. In particular, it’s got lots of upside. And we are excited as orders are starting to turn, we will get to leverage that lower fixed cost and generate even better margins. But I will let Cathy take the corporate expense question.
Cathy Suever:
Yes, Jeff. The corporate expense has been impacted a little by a market-based incentive plan that we have. But I would say, in addition to that, we have done some realignment and movements to reduce some of the fixed costs at corporate and you are seeing the benefit of that as well.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay, great. And then just maybe just sticking on North America moving to flat, can you just talk about the tone there and maybe decipher between OE and distribution? Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Maybe I will start with orders. And then since I know this is a popular question, I will just hand it to Lee to go through the markets kind of by region, because everybody, I’m sure, has questions about that. But in North America, the order pattern followed exactly what we had anticipated when we laid out the guidance last quarter. We expected that it get to flat this quarter and it did. In general, what’s enabling that is that the natural resource end markets kind of oil and gas, mining, construction and ag have moderated to where they have become less of a drag. We saw North America distribution go to flat, which being a big part of our total revenue, that was a huge help. And then in particular, semicon, telecom, refrigeration, machine tools and mining were positive order entry for North America. But let me turn it over to Lee and we will kind of spin you through the markets and the regions.
Lee Banks:
Okay, Jeff. You are going to get more than you asked for here. But I think first, just following up on Tom, I think what’s encouraging is the organic growth moved largely in the direction we thought from the last call. And many of our markets are showing positive momentum towards year-over-year growth as I go around the world, and I shared that with you. Just on North American distribution, I would say, in general, the mood of our major distributors is fairly positive and this is after a solid order entry during the quarter. And that trend has continued in January, which has led us to the guidance that is reflected here today. I think what’s also encouraging is I checked many of our largest distributors have reported increase in their backlog, so again, bodes well. If I talk about oil and gas on the industrial side, land-based oil and gas is showing increasing signs of growth, which is real positive. There has been obviously and you track this too, an increase in rig counts, which has led to an increase in MRO and some first bid activity. And we are seeing very small signs of recovery with offshore drilling contractors. We do expect the offshore to lag behind the land-based, but there is activity taking place there. I think the best way to sum it up, too, I was talking to one of our key partners in oil and gas, and he said, Lee, 60, 90 days ago, I would have said we see sparks, and today I am starting to see smoke. And so there is just things happening out there, which are positive. Just talking about energy markets overall, the market for large frame turbines, was flat in Q2. Our overall business was slightly up due to some market content wins. And we do continue to see positive year-over-year growth in alternative energy such as wind turbines and Parker is benefiting mostly from significant content and customers trying to take advantage of some of the federal tax credit programs that still exist. Residential air-conditioning and refrigeration, Tom talked about, we continue to see strong year-over-year growth in commercial and residential air-conditioning and we expect that to continue going forward. On the mobile markets in North America, most key customers are still showing year-over-year decline in Q2. This includes off-highway construction, farm and ag equipment material handling. But we are getting many positive inputs and preparedness requests from many of our key OEM partners. So I think that bodes well going forward. So I would call that segment. It appears that we have really formed the bottom with some upside. Just turning to EMEA and I will be brief here. On distribution, it’s still slightly negative year-over-year. However, the distribution order entry is beginning to show signs of strengthening. The order entry rates definitely improved during the quarter on a year-over-year comparison. Oil and gas is probably the biggest impact still in Europe, but it’s flattened out and we definitely see signs of strength in distribution that focuses on core industrial end markets. So, that’s positive. Just in general, industrial, I would just say positive markets like North America, we have seen a real uptick in mining and related equipment. This would be hard rock mining for iron ore, etcetera and then semiconductor and telecom are very – both very strong. Oil and gas, I talked about, still very low year-over-year, but we – it does appear the bottom has formed with the activity taking place in the North Sea. And then in the mobile markets, we do see an increased activity in forestry and off-highway construction equipment markets. In Asia Pacific, I would say it’s a very positive story and it’s really continued from the story we told last quarter. So in distribution, we are very encouraged by our focus and progress on distribution. The order entry was a positive and we continue to add new distribution outlets. In the industrial markets, almost all industrial markets are positive year-over-year and order entry continues to be strong. Strongest markets include machine tools, mining again, semiconductor is very strong, life sciences and medical equipment. And then in the mobile equipment markets, that’s probably perhaps the strongest sequential and year-over-year growth and order entry came from those markets. And those strong end markets include off-highway construction equipment engines, cars and light trucks. And then just lastly, I will touch on Latin America. We continue to be encouraged by Q2 order entry. As you know, Brazil still has its share of issues, but there are some positive things taking place in Ag, construction equipment and then distribution, all obviously from a very low base. So bottom line, organic growth continues to move in a direction we talked about. And I think we are all encouraged by what we see in many of our end markets and regions right now.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Ann Duignan:
Thank you. That was quite a summary, my head is kind of spinning from all of that information, but I will go back to that CLARCOR acquisition, if we look at some of the potential changes under the new administration, the elimination of interest expense is one that might impact Parker significantly post CLARCOR, have you have any discussions about, instead of issuing debt that you might use equity instead just because of the uncertainty or maybe you could just tell us what you are talking about behind the scenes there?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Ann, I will take that. We are focused on issuing debt. We think it’s a good time to be in the market at today’s rates. Yes, we understand that there could be some changes in rules around interest expense, but at this point, we do not plan to issue any equity. The agreement we have with CLARCOR, that it’s a cash deal.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And I know you have said all along that in the first year of ownership, it would be – the deal would be accretive, if I just take the synergies that you have noted versus the costs that you have noted, we are looking at somewhere around $0.15 of accretion in the first full year, is that about right, is that the order of magnitude that you are looking at in first full year or am I missing anything?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Ann, we are not really prepared to update from what we told you on December 1, but that’s you are in line there, after excluding the one-off costs of the transaction fees, the inventory market valuation and the synergy costs. But yes, we do expect to see it accretive in year one.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. And just finally on CLARCOR, they recently noted headwinds from higher material costs, does that change anything on the synergies side for you or was that anticipated when you made the offer?
Tom Williams:
Ann, this is Tom. I won’t comment about any of CLARCOR’s comments as they are still an independent company. I will just make a comment in general about what we have seen so far with integration planning. It’s really confirmed the excitement that we feel about the strategic fit and the synergies that we communicated, $140 million in cost on December 1. So we feel as good or better about that today. And we really love the team that is joining in Parker. And I think the cooperation that we have seen between both companies, both leadership teams, this has been fantastic and we are ready to hit the ground running when this thing closes.
Ann Duignan:
Well, great. I wish you luck on that. Now, I will get back in line. Thanks.
Cathy Suever:
Thanks Ann.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Andy Casey:
Thanks a lot. Good morning.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Andy.
Andy Casey:
On the outlook, the guidance for Diversified Industrial International, the top line came down, margin went up from the prior guidance, could you kind of discuss what factors drove that was that all the divestiture, or was there something else?
Tom Williams:
Andy, it’s Tom. So for international, the big change is two-fold. One, the new guide organically is higher than what we told you before. So last guide, we have 4.4% organic sales growth for the second half. These are all second half numbers I have given you. And now it’s 6.7%. However, when you look at currency, prior guide had a slightly positive currency and now it’s a minus 5% drag. So that’s the big difference, is that a currency impact, basically is about $130 million swing from last guide to what we are guiding today. And that creates the headwind for us.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thanks Tom. And then could you address the margins slightly higher as well?
Tom Williams:
The margins, I mean it’s the Win Strategy coming through. But in particular, we are leveraging – you have all heard me talk about Asia Pacific, how it’s a region that is better margin than the company average and relatively underutilized from a fixed cost and facility standpoint. So a lot of what’s propelling our growth internationally so far is Asia Pacific. So we are getting to leverage a little higher mix as Asia comes in higher margins and we are leveraging that fixed cost structure and converting it at a much faster clip because the Asia team – everybody around the world is lowering their fixed cost, when you put some extra volume through a plant that’s relatively underutilized, you get a really nice pop in margins.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thank you. And then if we kind of look at the order improvement that you and Lee have gone through, we have heard some commentary that the fourth quarter - fourth calendar quarter, your second quarter, had kind of a surge at the tail end, first, did you see that and then second, has there been any noticeable change to the trend you saw last quarter so far through January?
Tom Williams:
Andy, it’s Tom again. I would characterize the order pattern for the quarter as steady progress sequentially through the quarter. So it kept improving gradually through the quarter. And January continued and really our view, January in the quarter is all reflected in the revised guide, which popped the organic growth up 100 basis points for the second half.
Andy Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Tom, your total margin guidance has gone up about 30 basis points for the year, which would seem to have all been debate in the second quarter, can you talk about the margin guidance in the second half relative to where you were before and whether or not that there were some one-time things that might have helped the 2Q number or maybe you are just being conservative on the back half?
Tom Williams:
Okay. Nathan, it’s tom. So let me – I have got second half ‘17 to second half ‘16. All I have got, I got to compare it to the guide. I don’t know if I have them.
Cathy Suever:
Nathan, a lot of the beat we saw in the second quarter margins came from international. And as Tom described, a lot of that was driven by the performance in Asia Pacific. As we look at the guidance we are giving for the rest of the year, some of that gain shifts into North America doing better than we had previously thought. And that comes from the simplification efforts that we see coming through and the realignment and the lowering of fixed costs. On the other end, we are not promising as much from international as the currency headwind and just a little bit of doubt in what is going to happen with orders in Europe. We are being a little bit more conservative on the – for international.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, that helps. And so you had also said 5 points of extra FX headwind relative to what you forecast before, that dollar-euro cross rate really hit the bottom probably at – as we crossed into the New Year, is at the currency rate you used and if we used 1.08 that it’s at today, would that have a meaningful impact on where you had guided the overall Industrial International for the year?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Nathan, we are using 1.05 as we measure the second half. That’s what we had as of the quarter ending December. So yes, 1.08 would have some impact, which we have not built in.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, that’s helpful. And then if I could just do one on CLARCOR, you have got the $140 million of cost-out targets. Is there anymore granularity you can give us to that in terms of what the main buckets are that, that $140 million goes into?
Tom Williams:
Nathan, it’s Tom. At this point, we are not going to give you that granularity, probably won’t in the future either. Let me explain why. We will clearly give you visibility how we are tracking the $140 million, so we will give you progress updates to that number if we know that is important to all of our shareholders and to our analysts. However, the buckets and I can assure you we have very clear visibility as to what they are. However, there is some obvious sensitivity to our people and to our suppliers on how that might all play through, but we have very good granularity to that. And recognizing that as we start the integration related to full speed once we close, we are going to rely on the CLARCOR team who knows the business better than anybody to work side-by-side with us to help fine-tune what those buckets will be. But there is probably lot of reasons we won’t disclose individual buckets, but we will clearly give you everybody an update on the $140 million as we go every quarter.
Nathan Jones:
Fair enough. Thanks very much.
Tom Williams:
Yes. Thank you, Nathan.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of John Inch with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
John Inch:
Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Cathy Suever:
Good morning, John.
John Inch:
Good morning. You are competing with GE for below-the-line moving parts, so I don’t know who is ahead, but I’ll come back to you on that. So Ethan, on the last call prior to yours, talked about their inability to recapture price in the short-term given the rising ROS. Is that part of why we are being so conservative on the organic for the next couple of quarters even though you have obviously seen some leverage and some pretty good growths signs out of Asia? And if so is there a way to quantify that, Tom?
Lee Banks:
John, it’s Lee. First, from a cost price standpoint, we are still slightly positive on price. So it’s something, if you followed us long enough, we try to really stay ahead of that. It’s not a pricing environment we have seen in the past, but we are still slightly positive. And I would say, on the organic growth guide, we are just trying to be as realistic as possible. I mean, it’s early days right now. So, we have kind of done this bottoms-up and with our regions and some of our key customers and that’s what we are trying reflect here.
John Inch:
Right. But I mean, but raw materials, specifically copper steel, etcetera have gone up a lot. So do you anticipate – to my question, do you anticipate in the next couple of quarters, just because of that impact, some negative spreads in the next couple of quarters that’s baked into your guide or do you still think, Lee, you can sustain kind of the flattish, up slightly?
Lee Banks:
I think we can sustain it. Where we have got heavy content, usually, we have contracts in place with our end customers where the pricing is adjusted because of the raw material increase and it’s not a big portion of our business. But I think we all feel pretty comfortable about what we do internally to manage that.
John Inch:
Okay. Can I ask you about sort of when the dust settles here, how are you feeling about incrementals in your businesses, given the win to and other actions that you have taken? I mean, it seems fairly clear volume is going to start at some point to grow again, not just because of compares, but it’s actually really going to start to grow. At what cadence is the $64,000 question? But how are you guys thinking about future incrementals, call it, beyond ‘17 just what can Parker really be doing here?
Tom Williams:
John, it’s Tom. So I would think if you look at us traditionally, if you look at a cycle regardless how long that cycle typically was, when we first come out, there is a pretty sharp inflection, we might be greater than 30% MROS and we come down to 30% MROS. Then you start to glide down as you are deeper into an expansion more into the upper teens, I would just say that based on what we have been able to do and we will continue to work as we will continue to see improvements that you should see our margin return on sales be better than what we have historically done over that cycle. And we are still confident like we have been communicating that we are going to get the company to 17% segment operating margins in FY ‘20.
John Inch:
Did anything – this is the last question, thanks for that, Tom, did anything actually get little worse in the quarter, forgetting about all the kind of moving parts of – or at least adjusting for all the moving parts of incrementals and other stuff? Did anything actually get a little worse could be geographic or customer end markets from the trend?
Tom Williams:
John, it’s Tom again. Nothing really got worse, but the only one that I would say was a pause was rail. Rail, in particular, in Asia as the China government really kind of took a pause in projects to reassess the activity there. But that’s the only one that I would say took a pause. We expected automotive, automotive went slightly negative, but we expected that. So that would be about the only one I would call out.
John Inch:
Got it. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning and nice quarter. I guess two questions, one for you, Tom, and then the other one for Lee. Tom, I feel like the story with Parker-Hannifin has been you guys have continued to surprise on the upside on the margin front even though the top line has been challenged. But I guess, as I look at the sales trends that we are seeing, you are increasing your organic growth. Was this all just sort of end market demand or you further had versus where you thought you would be in terms of you being able to outgrow your market? Are we starting to see any of those benefits? And then my second question, Lee, you noted two things when you were talking about sort of order trends. One, I think on the mobile equipment side, you have said like the preparedness to refresh or something. Can you just give more color on that and whether you have incorporated what they are telling you in your numbers or they haven’t put that in their numbers yet? And then on the distributor side, I mean, it sounds like things are more positive there, but how are inventory levels at the distributor side? I am just wondering if they need to restock more or if they are still sort of being a little more conservative because we don’t know if this trend is real.
Tom Williams:
Okay, Jamie. It’s Tom. I will start first as far as basically what you are asking our efforts to try to grow 150 basis points faster than the market, have we started to feel that yet. And I would say at this point, most of what we are seeing is end markets getting better, natural resource end markets becoming less of a drag, distribution moving to neutral, the PMIs trending positively across the world have all yielded better order entry patterns. However, that being said, when I look at the ones that are near-term on our list of organic growth actions, the focus we have had on international distribution and trying to convert competitive product, add distribution outlets, we have seen good traction on that. There is a lot of visibility into that across the company. And so I think that when we are starting to feel some of that, we have a very concerted effort on really just tracking opportunities across the world by account managers. We probably have our sales team better organized than we ever had around our global OEMs. We have updated our incentive plans, as all of you know, around the growth, a growth multiplier times a return on net assets. So I think all of those are starting to early traction, but I would say during the first inning of our margins to grow 150 basis points faster than the market. If we grow 3.3% in the second half, which is in our guidance, we will be growing faster than industrial production growth, so that will be our first indicator that, hey, what we are doing is starting to take hold. Now I will let Lee chime in.
Lee Banks:
Yes, Jamie, you are going to have to remind me on the distribution question again. But on the preparedness question, so just dealing with some of our customers that have been suppressed for some time, we are starting to have conversations with us now looking forward. And it’s mostly towards 2018 to be candid with you, just about being prepared because they do have an anticipation, there is going to be some growth here. So it seems to be – you will walk away with the sense that things have kind of plateaued, hit a bottom, and let’s just talk about what’s going to be happening going forward.
Jamie Cook:
And was that fairly broad across the mobile equipment market or specific to one?
Lee Banks:
Fairly broad.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. And so the second question just on the distributor level, like, are they sitting there? Are your distributors sitting there with inventories that are low levels? Have they restocked yet? I am just trying to get a feel for...
Lee Banks:
No, I would not characterize the channel as inventory heavy at all. And you know some of them that were tied to oil and gas did get stuck with some inventory. I would say, by and large, that’s not 100% gone, but it’s burned off quite a bit. So I don’t consider the channel heavy at all.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thank you. I will get back in queue.
Lee Banks:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you. Good morning.
Lee Banks:
Good morning Jeff.
Jeffrey Sprague:
I want to come back to the margin execution, I think it plays a little bit of John’s question, but very strong decrementals when revenues were declining. And you used the term incremental here today, but really, revenues aren’t up so – to some degree the construct doesn’t apply, right, so we are seeing a pretty nice step-up in margins without help from revenue this quarter, just wondering if you could give us a little bit of insight into what drove that kind of a combination of win execution, but perhaps there was some favorable mix going on. And again, it’s really the question being that kind of getting comfort on that incremental trajectory once the revenues do in fact begin to go the other way?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Jeffrey, it’s Tom. Hopefully, you are – collectively everybody listening on the call starting to get more comfortable with that because we have demonstrated our ability to hold the decrementals for like seven quarters or eight quarters in a row and what you described is likely what happened. So we now have favorable growing margins, growing operating income with flat slightly declining sales. It’s really a combination of things. We did do get some help last quarter with Asia growing like it did and leveraging that fixed cost structure that I talked about. Remember Asia, see most of our factories we invested in probably 7 years, 8 years ago and they are running the shift may be able over a shift, so any incremental volume that we put through there is nice utilization for us. But it’s a combination of things. We have made very aggressive market adjustments when ordering went down in the last 2 years and we have been very focus on strategically reshaping the company through looking at revenue complexity, division consolidations, organization design, process redesign, just making the company easier, faster. And we are still in very early days at this. I think there is tremendous upside here, which is a big part of what’s going to lift us to the 17% operating margin. So I can’t pick one particular thing. I think we were smart several years ago to get ahead of this, what the restructuring we did and we have continued that. And we have layered on top of that the most strategic look at the company, looking at the SG&A for the company. Our fixed costs were down and so it’s easier to convert when we have quarter entry showing positive volume increase.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Very impressive. And just looking forward, how do you judge the balancing act between maybe stepping on the throttle on new product investment and the like as you do get a bit of revenue tailwind, do you feel as if you can clearly drive for those margin targets and step up to kind of the next level of investments to drive the top line?
Tom Williams:
Yes, absolutely. I mean because part of why new products are a big part of two things; one, our organic growth as well as margin expansion because if you look at our profile of margins for new products, they are tend to be higher than the average margin for the company. So they will be incremental for both of that. There is a big focus on that across the company. We have got a dashboard that looks at what our new product vitality is and how we are doing. I think it’s been somewhat camouflaged with the end market deterioration that we saw in the dramatic downturn of natural resources. But there is a lot of activity there and we are making investments from a corporate standpoint at the group level and division that’s in there today. And I think that’s – when we talk about growing faster than the market, that will be a big element of it.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities. Your line is now open. Eli, if your phone is on mute, please un-mute it.
Eli Lustgarten:
Can you hear me now?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Good morning Eli.
Eli Lustgarten:
I am sorry. Just a clarification and I apologize for asking, in the 7.30 for the year, so it looks like we had $0.38 in the quarter or $0.35 of what you would call sort of non-recurring earnings fees as a base for 2018, does it fare – the $0.21 and you have a foreign currency gain, is there anymore foreign currency gain expected, but I just want to say we use it as a base for fiscal ‘18, should we use in closer to $7, like two things out before looking at it and the same thing in tax rate, 27.5 would we go to a normalized tax rate before any politics of the 28.5% that we sort of expected for the year?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Eli, we have not forecasted any additional currency gains. We have flat for currency in terms of transactional gains or losses. And in terms of the prior question...
Eli Lustgarten:
I mean you showed 35…
Cathy Suever:
Sorry, about the tax rate. We are getting a benefit this year from the new accounting rule related to stock options that get exercised at a gain. We have not forecasted for that going forward because we really can’t predict who will exercise and that what gain. And so we have not built any of that in. So I would assume that the tax rate would not stay as low as the 27.5 that we are forecasting for this year. I would expect it to go back up.
Eli Lustgarten:
And is it fair to say that about $0.35 or some number in that range is a non-recurring number as a basis because of the sale of the division and in foreign currency gain that we shouldn’t use it as a base to forecast ‘18?
Cathy Suever:
Yes, I think that’s fair.
Eli Lustgarten:
Okay. I just want to make sure and started looking at the organic numbers that you are starting to see, you have minus organic gains in North America, international, I understand, but you are looking at modest North American gains in the second half of this year into next year, what’s on the low single-digit gains?
Tom Williams:
Yes. Eli, we have got 0.5% for North America. Really, what we tried to mirror in this guide is what happened in Q2 on order entry and what we saw on January and North America came in flat and we are anticipating a little bit of upside there. Hence, we put 0.5% of organic and most of the upside we put organically was international based on that strong order entry we saw.
Eli Lustgarten:
And just to tag on to that, are you hearing anything from your customers, there is a lot of – you hear a lot of talk, everybody is optimistic, but almost sort of being a little cautious in the first half of the year, which is the second half of the year, just because lots of optimistic for policy, but nothing happening when you see what happens, is that part of the conservatism that we are seeing from your customers and from you?
Tom Williams:
Well, Eli, this is Tom. I think the way you describe it is probably fair. I mean I think until you see the policy discussions turning to policy, which turns into action, you can’t tell. But we do our forecast and I don’t want to say 6.7% international organic growth for the second half was conservative. I think that’s a pretty good number. And we are just reflecting what we saw order entry so far and we will update it next quarter if we see something different, but so far so good on that.
Eli Lustgarten:
I appreciate really talking about North America, I wasn’t talking about international. Thank you very much.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thanks Eli.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen and Company. Your line is now open.
Joe Giordano:
Hey guys, how are you doing?
Cathy Suever:
Hi Joe.
Joe Giordano:
I guess most of my thoughts have been answered, so I will shift over to Aerospace a little bit, I have to look back, but I don’t remember you guys calling out widebody specifically over the last couple of quarters, is there anything specific, what are you seeing there and when did the bizjet comps start not working against you?
Cathy Suever:
So I will start with the bizjet. I think part of the bizjet will come back when oil and gas comes back and there is just more demand for it. In terms of the widebody production, yes, we have just – we haven’t seen the level of delivery requests for the 777 and the 747. And we really don’t expect that coming forward until the 777x comes into production. So the widebody just does not come through at the demands that we had hoped.
Joe Giordano:
So is it – like how do we reconcile that with like order entry, like what kind of – is like where we are now pretty good run rate you thinking into that for now?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. We are expecting organic growth in the second half of a little over 3%. I would say, for the longer term, as Aerospace orders tend to be, we are looking at about a 3% organic growth over the next several years. We still, long-term expect as new planes come into entry into service that, that will continue to grow and our long-term production remains at about a 4% growth for Aerospace.
Joe Giordano:
Okay. So your second quarter half production doesn’t inherently assume any sort of change from the current outlook on bizjet order like what you just mentioned on 777 and 747?
Cathy Suever:
Correct.
Joe Giordano:
Okay. Thanks guys.
Cathy Suever:
Okay. Thank you. And we will take one more question.
Operator:
Thank you. And our last question comes from the line of Joshua Pokrzywinski with Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning. Thanks for letting me in.
Cathy Suever:
Sure Josh, good morning.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Just a couple of questions, I guess first on oil and gas, it sounds like you are not seeing the turn yet, but what’s the sort of the lead time you would normally expect from the pickup in rig count versus when you start to see the orders, acknowledging that distributor inventories are probably not overstocked anymore?
Tom Williams:
Well, if we are starting to see some positives in North America, I mean obviously, there has been inventory that’s burnt off. But if you look at the rig count year-over-year, it’s on land based, it’s up significantly from the low levels that it was. I would put lead times in the kind of that same 30-day, 60-day bucket on projects that are done and the way it’s ordered. So it’s fairly short cycle, if you would characterize it that way.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Got it. So you could see an improvement more on the – further momentum this quarter?
Tom Williams:
Sure.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Okay. And then just snapping volume, because I know that there was some initial volatility and what you guys thought you would have for financing costs on CLARCOR, what’s the rate on that today, I think you started out at 100 and then maybe thought there could be some downside to that and how are we recalibrating that with the current markets?
Cathy Suever:
Yes. Josh, we have been watching the interest rates very closely. We are still on the path of using about $1.5 billion of our cash available and $3 billion of new debt. That new debt will be a combination of short-term and long-term. As we are watching the rates, we do have the capability of use – pulling a bridge loan from Morgan Stanley and we also have plenty of room in our commercial paper. So we will watch the market and we will take an opportunistic opportunity to jump in, in both short-term and long-term debt when we see it best available for us.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
But there is no big delta as you see it today in those financing costs?
Cathy Suever:
No, I think the $100 million that we told you earlier is still a good estimate.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Okay, Thanks a lot.
Cathy Suever:
Okay, thank you. So this concludes our Q&A session and our earnings call for today. Thank you everybody for joining us. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have further questions. Thank you everybody and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today’s conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Executives:
Tom Williams - CEO Jon Marten - CFO Lee Banks - COO
Analysts:
Nathan Jones - Stifel Andrew Obin - Bank of America Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Andy Casey - Wells Fargo Joe Giordano - Cowen and Company Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Jeffrey Sprague - Vertical Research Partners Alex Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corporation First Quarter 2017 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct and question and answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference maybe recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's Mr. Jon Marten, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Marten you may begin.
Jon Marten:
Thank you, Andrea. Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's first quarter FY '17 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's Investor Information Web site at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On Slide 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as our non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any references to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's Web site at phstock.com. Turning to Slide 3, toady's agenda is outlined. To begin our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams will provide highlights for the first quarter of fiscal year '17. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's first quarter, FY '17 performance together with the guidance for FY '17. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and then we'll open the call for a Question & Answer session. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to Slide 4.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jon, and welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation this morning. Today, I'd like to share highlights of our first quarter results, comment on our fiscal year 2017 guidance. And finally share progress we are making with the new win strategy. Before I get into the financial highlights of the quarter first I’d like to talk about the safety. Keeping people safe is our first priority and as such we start our meetings at Parker with the discussion on safety. So I thought I’d start our earnings call with safety as well. During the first quarter of 2017 we are able to reduce our recordable injuries by 35% compared to the prior year. This builds upon a 33% year over year improvement we posted comparing 2016 versus 2015. And actually we have a long way to go, to reach our goal of zero accidents. But I’m very pleased with the progress we’re making. Safety is important because, not only does it protect our people but also because great safety performance typically leads to great financial performance. Now to the financial highlights of our first quarter results. First quarter sales were 2.74 billion, a 4% declined compared with the same quarter year ago. This represents the third consecutive quarter we saw a decelerating rate of decline in sales on a year-over-year basis. Nearly all the decline in sales this quarter was organic. Total order rates in the first quarter increased 2% compared with the same last year on easier comparisons. This represented the first quarterly increase in order since December 2014. By segment, North America is still weak but slowly recovering and our aerospace systems segment and international business order rates were positive. These order rates reinforced our previously communicated view that we’re progressing towards stabilization in many of our key markets. However we will continue to monitor order trends closely to ensure that this outlook is holding up. Net income for the first quarter increased 8% to 2010 million on an as reported basis or $218 million on an adjusted basis. Earnings per share were $1.55 as reported or $1.61 on an adjusted basis. A 6% increase in adjusted earnings per share, compared with the same quarter last year. Despite soft market conditions, we were able to achieve total segment operating margins of 15.0% or 15.4% adjusted. This is another quarter of solid performance and represents a 10 base point improvement, year-over-year in the adjusted segment operating margins. Our decremented margin return on sales or MROS was 3.9% for the first quarter or 12.7% on an adjusted basis. This really is outstanding performance and marks the seventh consecutive quarter. That our adjusted decremented have been below 30%. It was another strong quarter for cash flow, cash flow from operations, excluding a discretionary pension contribution, was 12% of sales, reflecting our ability to be a consistent generator of cash through economic cycles. During the quarter we've repurchased $115 million in Parker's stock, this completes the previous announced commitment to buyback a minimum of $2 billion in Parker’s shares of October 2016. Going forward our plan is to be a great generator of cash and a great deplorer of cash, in a way that generates increased long term returns for our shareholders. Now regarding FY17 guidance. We continue to forecasting a year of flat sales compared with 2016. For 2017 we are maintaining guidance or as-reported earnings in the range of $6.15 to $6.85 per share or $6.50 at the midpoint. On an adjusted basis, we expect earnings per share in the range of $6.40 to $7.10, or middle point at $6.75. Business realignment expenses are still anticipated to be approximately $0.25 per share in fiscal 2017. So now just a few comments about our progress with the Win Strategy. We will continue to make meaningful progress across initiatives across four broad goals, engaging people, premier customer experience, profitable growth, and financial performance. Our ongoing execution with new Win Strategy through its first full year implementation gives me even more confidence that we can achieve our key financial objectives by the end of fiscal 2020, which includes targeted sales growth of our 150 basis points. Higher then a rate of global industrial products. We’re also targeting 17% segment operating margins and progress towards these goals is expected to drive a compounding of growth rate and earnings per share of 8% over this 5 year period. These performance targets will allow us to deliver sustainable, long term value of Parker team members, our customers and our shareholders. I’ll now hand things back Jon to review more details on the quarter and fiscal 2017 guidance.
Jon Marten:
Thanks, Tom. And at this time please refer to Slide 5. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $1.61 versus $1.52 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of $0.09. This excludes business realignment expenses of $0.06, which compares to $0.11 for the same quarter last year. On Slide 6 we review the influences on the adjusted earnings per share for Q1 versus Q1 of FY '16. We had earnings per share of $1.52 for the first quarter FY '16 and $1.61 for first quarter of this year, increase to adjusted earnings per share include a reduction of corporate G&A expense which totaled $0.11 per share. A lower effective tax rate of 28.1% versus 29.2% in Q1 of FY '16, lower interest expense and the impact of fewer shares outstanding due to the company share re-purchase activity which equated to an increase of $0.07 per share, a reduction of $0.08 per share and income was a result of the lower adjusted segment operating income driven by weakened end market topline demand as projected while higher other expense equated to a reduction of $0.01 per share. Moving to Slide 7, with the review of the total company sales and segment operating margin for the first quarter. Total company organic sales in the first quarter decreased by 4.6% over the same quarter last year. There was nominal contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions and minimal currency impact. Total company segment operating margins for the first quarter adjusted for realignment cost incurred in the quarter was 15.4% versus 15.3% for the same quarter last year. Business realignment costs incurred in the quarter were $11 million versus $22 million last year. The lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $422 million versus $438 million last year reflects the impact of the weakened industrial end markets, partially offset by the savings realized from the company's simplification and restructuring actions. Moving to Slide 8, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the first quarter, North American organic sales decreased by 9% as compared to the same quarter last year. There was no impact from acquisitions and nominal impact from currency in the quarter. Operating margin for the first quarter adjusted for realignment costs was 17.5% of sales versus 17.2% in the prior year. Business realignment expense incurred totaled $4 million, as compared to $8 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $205 million, as compared to $221 million, driven by the reduced volume as a result of those same key industrial end markets. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial Segment on Slide 9. Organic sales for the first quarter in the industrial international segment decreased by 3.2%, acquisition positively impacted sales by 0.9%, while there was no impact from currency. Operating margins for the first quarter adjusted for business, realignment cost was 14.2% of sales versus 13.6% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled 7 million as compared to 12 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was 144 million as compared to 141 million which despite the weakened topline reflects the offsetting savings resulting from the realignment actions taken in the current and prior fiscal years. I’ll now move to Slide 10 to review the Aerospace System segment. Organic revenues increased 3.1% for the quarter, neither acquisitions nor currency impacted revenues, growth in military OEM, commercial OEM and commercial aftermarket sales were the drivers for the quarterly performance as compared to the prior year. Operating margin for the first quarter adjusted for realignment cost was 13.1% of sales versus 13.9% in the prior year. No business realignment expenses were incurred in the quarter, compared to 2 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was 73 million as compared to 76 million reflecting the timing impact of higher development cost during the quarter. Moving to Slide 11 with the detail of orders changes by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The diversified industrial segment report on a three month rolling average while aerospace systems are based on a 12 month rolling average. Total orders improved to positive 2% for the quarter end reflecting easing year ago comparisons and a decelerating rate of decline in key industrial end markets. Diversified industrial North America orders decrease year-over-year to negative four, diversified industrial international orders increased modestly year-over-year to a positive three and Aerospace Systems orders increased year-over-year to a positive 14%. On Slide 12, we report cash flow from operations. For the first quarter cash flow from operating activities was 114 million or 4.2% of sales, this compares to 0.7% of sales with the same period last year. When adjusted with $220 million discretionary pension contribution we made in the quarter cash for operating activities was 12.2% of sales. This compares to 7.7% of sales for the same period last year, adjusted for the $200 million discretionary pension contribution in May last year. The significant uses of cash during the quarter were the $220 million for the discretionary pension plan contribution, $150 million for the Company's repurchase of common shares, and 85 million for the payment of shareholder dividends. 33 million for CapEx, equating to 1.2% of sales for the quarter is also called out. Turning to Slide 13, the full year earnings guidance for '17 is outlined. The guidance has been provided on both an as reported and an adjusted basis. Adjusted segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of 48 million, which are forecasted to be incurred throughout FY17. This is the only item for which we are adjusting. Total sales are expected to be in the range of negative 1.5% to 2.1% as compared to the prior year. Organic growth at the midpoint is nearly flat and acquisitions and the guidance are expected to positively impact sales by 8.4% currency and guidance is expected to have a modestly positive 0.3% impact on sales. We have calculated the impact on currency to spot rates as of September 30, 2016, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the upcoming balance FY17. For Total Parker as reported segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 14.8% and 15.2%, while adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be 15.2 -- to be between 15.2% and 15.6%. The guided midpoint on each range compares favorably to FY16 margins, 13.9% on an as reported basis and 14.8% on an adjusted basis in FY16. The guidance for below the line items, which includes corporate G&A interest in other expense is 478 million for the year at the midpoint. The full year tax rate is projected at 28.5%, the average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full year guidance is 135.5 million. For the full year, the guidance range on an as reported earnings per share basis is $6.15 to $6.85 or $6.50 at the midpoint. On an adjusted earnings per share basis, the guidance range is $6.40 to $7.10 or $6.75 at the midpoint. This as reported EPS guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $48 million to be incurred in FY17. The effect of this restructuring on EPS is approximately $0.25. Savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be 30 million and are fully reflected in both the as reported and the adjusted operating margin guidance ranges. We would ask that you continue to publish your estimates using adjusted guidance for proposes of representing a more consistent year-over-year comparison. Some additional key assumptions for fiscal year 2017 guidance are sales divided 48% first half, 52% second half. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 45% first half, 55% second half. EPS first half is $2.96 and $3.79 and the midpoint, that’s first half versus second half. And Q2 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be a $1.36 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $0.10 of business realignment expenses expected to be incurred in our Q2. On Slide 14, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of FY17 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.75 per share at the midpoint from the prior FY17 EPS of $6.75 per share, increases include $0.05 from lower corporate G&A and $0.05 from the lower tax rate. The key component of the decrease includes a $0.10 per share reduction from higher other and interest expense, please remember that this forecast excludes any acquisitions and divestitures that might close during FY17. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I’ll turn the call back over to you for our summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jon. I’m glad we’ve started 2017 on such a positive note. I would like to thank the appropriate team members around the world for their efforts. Not only have we made meaningful progress with initiatives designed to improve margins, but we’ve also taken great strides to strengthen and sustain our business and better serve our customers. We’re positioned well for the rest of this year and beyond under the framework provided by the Win Strategy. I look forward to sharing more with you as always as the progresses. And at this time, we are ready to take questions. So Andrew if you could help to get started.
Operator:
Absolutely. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones:
I think I would like to talk a little bit about cash generation and cash usage today, very, very strong cash flow quarter in what I don't think is normally an overly strong cash flow quarter. I think for as long as I have followed Parker your target has been 10% of sales converted into free cash flow. Is the new Win Strategy an execution of that structurally changing that target and should we think about cash generation being some number higher than 10 going forward?
Tom Williams:
Nathan, this is Tom. 10% has been our historical target, it’s still the target. But what we’ve done as far as determining that target is what’s top quartile against our peer group. And it happened to be when we set that goal years ago 10% was top quartile and as we benchmark it today 10% is still top quartile. Now obviously as we continue to raise margins, which is our goal, we should continue to be even better performing, but the goal is to be top quartile, we happen to be a pretty consistent performer in being top quartile on cash and I think you look forward for us continue to do that.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, fair enough. And then the $2 billion share repurchase is complete. The commitment that Don made a couple of years ago there is complete. The balance sheet is still pretty robust, you've still got plenty of capacity there. How should we think about your approach to M&A versus share repurchase going forward from here?
Tom Williams:
Hey, Nathan, it’s Tom again. So we obviously look at both of those all the time on a dynamic basis with the goal of making the best long term value creation decision for our shareholders. So I would characterize the pipeline right now as far as acquisitions you know being fairly active, as always acquisitions are lumpy and hard to product as far as the [technical difficulty]. And I think what is normally -- what historically in the last couple of years has slowed us down as far as converting more acquisitions has been the price valuation gap and what we are seeing now and I hope would hope over the next couple of years we’ll continue to see this even more is, I think sellers expectations coming closer to reality and I think that price gap that we experienced will become closer and I think properties will become more actionable. So we will continue to look at share repurchase and acquisitions and make the best decision every quarter on behalf of our shareholders. On the share repurchase, just as opposed to pre-announcing we’ll continue to be active and as I’ve said before on these calls what we’ll do is we’ll communicate after the fact. We think that’s the best value creating for our shareholders. We won’t be buying into our own wind and you’ll see us be active. Like I mentioned in my opening comments, our goal is to be great generator of cash and we will continue to be even better at that, but we want to be great deployers of cash and put into work. Now the $2 billion that you mentioned Nathan that’s sitting there, just to would remind I think most people realize this, is that 99% of that is permanently invested overseas. And so there is certain constrains or factors that you have the weigh when you think about how to deploy that and trying to deployed it in a most tax efficient manner on the benefit of our shareholders. So we will look at that, we obviously want to put it to work but there is factors you have to consider on that cash that is sitting overseas.
Nathan Jones:
Okay, thanks very much. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question, we are seeing improvement in energy prices and I was just wondering if you could give us some more color if you guys are seeing any impact on backlog or discussions with your customers?
Lee Banks:
Andrew this is Lee Banks here. I would characterize the oil and gas pretty much as we characterized it last call. So year-over-year it's still down. There is certainly is an increase in rig counts taking place, but I would characterized it as almost basically at the bottom with a lot of choppiness taken place in the market. So there is no real catalyst for a significant change at this point in time.
Andrew Obin:
And just a follow-up on M&A, I have literally had discussions where people are using negative interest rates for a cost of funding for deals. What is the equation between the prices and cost of capital is working in this environment? Are people getting more reasonable given where macro is and how does it balance the fact that you can borrow at almost nothing?
Tom Williams:
Andrew, its Tom. I think the gap I was refereeing to on valuation has been more of sellers continue to use whatever crop pre 2008 mentality as far as forecasting sales based on, we buy properties that we know and understand, we buy things within our space and we have divisions that are in the same space. So we see what the market and our growth rates are and typically there has been disconnect in that. I see that disconnect getting closer which allows things to be more actionable, now your point as far as how we decide to look at the financing side of things, we’re disciplined, we do a disconnect cash flow, we have a certain discount rate that we look at. We have returned criteria's that we considered. And this is all to the benefit of creating value for our shareholders and how we look at that analysis. I think we are very contemporary, we try to look at that in the current environment, so it will be reflective of what's going on in the real world. So I think we will continue to do that robust review.
Andrew Obin:
Thank you, very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie Cook:
Nice quarter. Two questions. One, Tom or Jon, I'm just trying to one, get a better understanding of the margin guidance in International given the performance that you put up in the first quarter given that you actually had a sales decline and your sales for the year are assuming positive growth. So I would assume you would get more leverage there. So if you could just give a little color there. And then my second question is just on the order front, I guess I was pleasantly surprised that North American declines are lessening and we saw another positive order number out of international on a tougher comp. So can you give a sense of your comfort level that the OE channel is clear or when North American orders should start to inflict positively? Is that in the second half of the year? And then whether you expect the strength in international to continue or when that starts to inflect even better? Thanks.
Jon Marten:
Yes, Jamie. A quick answer from me, this is Jon on the margin guidance here for international. We did it up 10 basis points, we are showing as we made in commentary, a little bit of a better overview in the Q1 and guidance going forward there. We see great progress as a result of our restructuring actions and our simplification ability here in the company wide internationally also. And so we found it was prudent to just move that up 10 basis points and we are really pleased with how we are performing there.
Jamie Cook:
But, Jon, your margins in the remaining nine months of the year implied margins are lower than the first quarter, but we’ll get sales growth?
Jon Marten:
Well, what we are going to do there is that as we look at the mix as the year goes on Jamie, we have a very slight change in the mix going forward here. So we are trying to make sure that we get the best guidance out there. Please keep in mind that there are some seasonal impacts here for going forward here that we are going to see in our Q2, that’s kind of indicated in our guidance too. And that one have an impact on the international margins in our Q2 and as typical in that beginning up our Q3 also.
Jamie Cook:
I'm sorry. What is the mix issue? Is it just more OE or can you just give color on that?
Jon Marten:
Well, it would be more of an ability as we look at some of the in rows that we are making and some of our businesses in Asia as well as in Europe making new wins getting more business and we are seeing good increases in our sales there for as -- much better than we had projected and that is really helping us to get more business and -- but that OE versus the aftermarket mix here is having a very, very slight impact.
Jamie Cook:
Okay sorry, then just a question on the order inflections for North American International?
Lee Banks:
Yes Jamie, it's Lee. I am going to answer your question and pivot on that too, and just give some color on the markets around the world. I think it's important too, for just everybody on the call to just go back a quarter and how we characterize the micro environment as we gave guidance in FY17. And what we talked about was basically we figured this to be a year where most of our market declines that we saw when we decelerate and eventually make it back or close to the flat. And we forecasted growth to be soft in Q1 as you remember, essentially flat in Q2. And then we’d see some small organic growth in year-over-year basis in the second half of the year. And we gave guidance last quarter, we put the markets in three buckets positive which would be positive year-over-year growth for our FY17, neutral and then -- which would be neutral and then negative. So it really hasn’t been much change from any of that. When I think about positive, we’re still bullish on aerospace, we talked about refrigeration, air conditioning, semicon, and telecom. We continue to see strong activity in all those areas. On a neutral front, we talked about automotive, we talked about power generation in rail. And I think the one thing that we talked about, which it really was a positive in our mind that we saw distribution moving to neutral, and what we see, we’re on track to do that. And I’ll comment on North America too for you when. And then negative year over year, which is consistent, it is decelerating for sure. But whole natural resource and markets construction, farm and ag, forestry, marine, mining, and oil and gas. All have -- still have headwinds to them and then heavy duty truck, which we talked about. So having said that the organic growth for the quarter really largely moved in the direction as we expected from the last call. Just touching on North America and distribution. We saw it’s down low single digits, it’s really in line with the expectations that saw. It’s definitely reaching all those people impacted by natural resource end markets are still suffering and there are still some tough comps, if you remember back Q1 last year, this time for some of these people. What I was encouraged about, is roughly every 4 years we hold a channel meeting in North America with our filed power channel. And I just came back from a meeting with 400 principals representing this channel across North America. And I have to tell you, I spent two days just going from top to bottom networking, with everybody there and I left mildly encouraged, certainly not depressed about prospects moving forward. As you would expect areas like the great lakes regions are having positive year-on-year growth. People in the oil patch were still suffering, but it’s not that accelerating rate of decline there is more talk about some positive trends possibly happening here in FY17, so that was good. If I talked about industrial markets in North America, you have to talk about oil and gas. And I would say major OEMs continue to indicate no significant investment, but do get a sense of there if there is a little bit a light at the end of tunnel and there are some talks about some projects happening going forward. Energy markets is another one that we like, overall the large frame turbines was flat year over year but, I’ve talked about this in the past, that we’ve had some good specifications wins there, our content is up, so we’ve seen some strong numbers from that sector for us. And then in the mobile markets in North America, we continue to see year over year declines in off-highway construction, equipment off-highway farming and ag, industrial trucks, material handling and railroad equipment. I’d say one market that was a little worse then we forecasted was heavy trucks and trailers. That was a little bit of a headwind for us. And then I would say the automotive market is a little worse and really I’m talking about light truck there. And I think a lot of it has to do with there was some extended summer shutdowns in some of those sectors that impacted us. But when we look at it going forward, we still feel very positive about it for the year. I’m going to get to international orders, Jamie. I haven't forgotten you’re here. So when I talk about EMEA distribution, I would say again it’s a same story. If you talk about oil and gas regions, if they have a large negative year over year impact. We continue to see great growth in some of the emerging regions, but I’ll say a little bit of headwinds in some of the political unrest in Turkey, which cost us in the quarter, we see that coming back. And then oil and gas still tough year-over-year comps, but we are seeing some positive activity on some project business outside of Western Europe. General Industrial, Middle East has been strong for us. There is a lot of projects going on, result of their economic diversification efforts. So we’ve had some great project wins there and then in the mobile sector, we are seeing some positive news in Europe and with off-highway construction equipment and heavy trucks and just getting some positive year-over-year input from our customers. So Europe largely for international order standpoint largely moved in the direction that we thought it would for the quarter. For Asia-Pacific we were encouraged by another strong quarter of year-over-year entry. So it accelerated from last quarter moved in the direction that we thought. Distribution was strong, we’ve got a big footprint expansion going on as part of our new win strategy and we like what’s happening there. And we’ve really seen very strong growth in India and Southeast Asia. Industrially we are up in almost all end markets. So if I highlight machinery product power generation semiconductor, telecom all grew positive in Asia-Pacific. And then in mobile, I’ve highlighted this before in the past, but high-speed rail continues to be a bright spot for us. Through some specification wins. We are doing very well there. And really increases in most segments in mobile off-highway construction again very low levels obviously, heavy duty truck farm and ag. And then Latin America, another international component, again another second quarter of strong order entry year-over-year from an extremely depressed level, but we’re encouraged by what’s happening there it’s been the first positive movement sometime. So when we think about countries like Brazil, coming back that’s a positive for us. So international order entry accelerated stayed relatively in line, but if we thought in Europe accelerated in Asia, accelerated Latin America.
Jamie Cook:
Okay. Thank you. That was very helpful. I will get back in queue.
Lee Banks:
Thanks, Jamie.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann Duignan:
Can we just take a step back for a moment. I missed what you said about Turkey. Did you say Turkey was improving or Turkey was a bit of a headwind? You were talking about political activity.
Lee Banks:
I was a little bit of disruptive there when all the political unrest was taking place, but it appears to us to be getting back in line and it was really some distribution business that went soft on us for a period of time.
Ann Duignan:
Okay, that is helpful. And then Lat-Am orders accelerating. Can you just talk about where exactly you are seeing the demand? Is it distribution? Is it truck? Just a little bit of color in terms of specifically by market or by region?
Tom Williams:
Yeah, I mean these are all very low level. So I don’t want to mischaracterize what’s happening there, but truck has been positive, construction equipment and really farm and ag has been the positive.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on your guidance. The dollar has strengthened against the euro by 4% since the end of the quarter. And I know you said you expect your outlook based on September 30 exchange rates. If you were to do your exchange rates as of today, would you have changed your revenue guidance?
Jon Marten:
Ann this is Jon. I think yes I mean given that track and we have a pattern of a going through and using September 30. We will see how that kind of plays itself out for the balance of the year, but with the strengthening the dollar today I think that it would have an impact on the guidance very slightly.
Ann Duignan:
Okay, I appreciate it. I will get back in line. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joe Ritchie:
First, I guess my first question, there has been a lot of concern especially as we have been exiting September that things in Industrial have started to get a little bit worse. And so I'm just curious whether you can provide any color on how things trended in the quarter and specifically that back half of September which has been a hot topic of conversation with folks?
Tom Williams:
Joe its Tom. So through the quarter what we saw was that North America orders get less negative, which is a good thing and seeing it progress sequentially that way to the quarter. Internationally and aerospace we are relatively consistent through the quarter. In October we haven’t seen I think that’s unusual and October is consistent with what we’ve put in the guidance.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Helpful, Tom. And then maybe just given that the earnings number came in a little bit better than expected, Tom, you kind of kept the guidance range wide for the year. I think historically you guys have kind of narrowed in the first quarter. Just curious what your thoughts were around that especially just given the fact that order trends have gotten a little bit better?
Tom Williams:
Yes, two things. One and maybe I will talk about the width of guidance, maybe people didn't pick up. We start -- we did this year in August different than what we have done historically. If you go back and look at our August guidance typically had a much wider range, so we started off the year with a more narrower than traditional range in August and we just kept that the same for the third quarter. So that part of it is really the starting point. And as far as keeping it consistent, when you look at what happened to the quarter, so we met the guide at the operating income level and the good thing about what happened in the quarters is we had slightly less sales, but we had better operating margins so we ended up delivering the operating income to our guide which was a testament really to the team around the world doing a fantastic job on that. We got some help below the line with some discrete one off things that are not going to repeat. So we felt that with the mix holding it flat made sense and holding it flat especially in today's environment with the macro environment being I would still say fairly uncertain, but we are encouraged with the fact that our orders turned positive. I would like to see a little bit more data before we get too far ahead of ourselves.
Joe Ritchie:
Got it. That makes sense. Maybe one last follow-up and this is specifically on the below the line items in the guide. I know you guys made a voluntary pension contribution. I assume that was going to be a little bit of a tailwind to your earnings number for this year, but it looks like your corporate number has gone up. And so what is the natural offset there?
Jon Marten:
Yes I think the -- first of all it’s not a big tailwind, but it is a slight few cent tailwind there with that additional contribution that we made. Going on below the line, what would be going the other way as Tom has talked about and many of our different venues over the last several quarters. Our investments in R&D, our investments in ecommerce, our investments in IOT, and the kinds of things that we needed to in order to improve on our well customer experience is really driving the additional expenses here that are helping to offset that $0.05 or so impact that were getting from the additional pension contribution that we made. So I hope that helps you Jon.
Joe Ritchie:
It's helpful Jon. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Andy Casey:
On the quarter could you give a little bit more color on the benefit to operating profit from restructuring and simplification?
Tom Williams:
Andy, this is Tom. Maybe I will start strategically and I will let Jon add with the details in the quarter. But with simplification, the strategy here is really there is four elements of it and we’ve have a focus I would say initially, if you would envision simplification as kind of being an iceberg, the tip of iceberg was division consolidations that was kind of the natural thing out of the gate that we have did. But the bigger part of simplification was underneath that, it's going to product line complex, revenue complexity, organization design work, process changes that we’ll do related to that revenue complexity and there is good old-fashioned bureaucracy. So we are very encouraged because if you remember simplification is geared more at the strategic SG&A type of restructuring. So we made a lot of progress, but I think this is very early days and that’s a part of why you have seen from an operating margin standpoint why we perform so efficiently in the last several quarters, and why our decrementals have held up so well. But specifically within the quarter Jon has something more to add on that.
Jon Marten:
Well the only thing that I would say on specifically in the quarter here is, we had $0.06 in restructuring that we actually book. We are going to see about -- we are maintaining our right guidance for the year and we are maintaining our saving that we have projected when we put our guidance together which is about 20% of the savings that we are going to get in the first half for the year. So it kind of came right in along with our expectations, our actual restructuring that we booked in the quarter was a little bit lighter, few cents lighter than what we have projected in the guidance, it's actually $0.03 lighter than what we have projected in that guidance. But we are very pleased with our progress and we are maintaining that projection through the balance of the year.
Andy Casey:
Okay, thanks, Jon and Tom. If I step back a little bit from the quarter and look at the 2020 goals, you have mentioned confidence in achieving those. If I just isolate the 17% operating margin goal, can you comment on whether you can get there if the market stabilization happens but the markets kind of stay flat after that? Or do you need some end market growth in addition to the 150 basis point outgrowth that you are targeting?
Tom Williams:
It's Tom again. So what we project including the 150 bips greater than the market is a 1.5% CAGR. Now remember the CAGR starts in ’15, so it went down from ’15 to ‘16 which is why that doesn’t sound like a really big number. So we go down because ’15 all the natural resource that dollar but then ’15 to ’16 flatting from ’16 to ’17 and starting grow by -- this time we get to FY20. Our expectation is to grow 150 basis point faster in the market based on FY20 as an exit rate. When you do the CAGR through that period of time it's 1.5%. So as a background, as long as the CAGR from ’15 to ’20 is a 100% CAGR we think we can get there 17% operating margin. Obviously if it’s lower than that, that’s does going to put challenges on it. But I think that’s a reasonable expectation given the macro environment, and our goal to gain share and all the other strategies we got around, the Win Strategy to grow fast in a market. So I think that’s fairly reasonable and we feel very comfortable that we can pull that off.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from a line of Joe Giordano with Cowen.
Joe Giordano:
We have kind of touched on this but with the orders in North American Industrial getting slightly better on a comp basis, but the revenue was touched a little bit lower like 40 bps, did the order patterns even though it improved come in a little bit lighter than you might have thought?
Tom Williams:
Joe, this is Tom so the sale gap that we have, which is very slight impacted, our guide around $40 million was pretty much equally dispersed between the three reporting segments, aerospace North America and international. So for Aerospace, it was little bit of biz jets softness helicopters, for North America a little softer, and heavy duty truck, automotive and little bit in the general industrial. Then international is mainly a little bit lighter in the Europe, then we had thought. But when you put it all together and based on their order trends that we’ve see and in fact that order trends are moving in the path we had thought they were going to go, we are encouraged, which is why we left the sales guidance flat for the full year.
Joe Giordano:
I guess I was just referring to just on the sales guidance for North America, was touched down a little bit from prior. And orders seem to be getting a little bit better so I didn't know if that specifically -- if the cadence there was a little bit different than you might have thought?
Tom Williams:
Now these are only slight differences, Joe. We are only down a total of -- for the time period of 19 million for the year going forward were not down, all that much. And so this is us going through each one of our end markets, each one of our business pulling them all together and then coming up with some guidance that makes sense. But I would not read anything into that. Our orders are trending, just the way that we thought that they would. And so therefore we are making just very slight change in the sales as we’re projecting here in the guidance.
Joe Giordano:
Fair enough. If I could just switch quickly to Aerospace for a bit, you mentioned the margins suffered a little bit from development costs. Can you maybe go into a little detail there? And then just two quarters in a row there 14% order growth and how much would you attribute that to comps getting progressively easier or are you seeing some real strength there?
Tom Williams:
Well first on the development cost, I think from time to time, it’s very hard to project these quarter by quarter here and so these are more timing issues than they are anything else. Now on the 14% for two quarters in a row. I want to again -- as you know and everybody on the call knows, we are reporting these numbers because it’s long cycle business at a rolling 12 months average. Now the long term growth rate that we can expect is what we’ve seen almost in the Q1 from aerospace there sales up 3.1%, and our long term growth rate with them is going forward is going to be in the 4% range. And that is something that overall a next 3 or 4 or 5 year timeframe, we feel very confident in saying. So I want to just caution you that to not expect a 14% increase going forward. This has to do with the lumpiness of the orders and how they come in from our military and commercial customers. And the long term prospects are fantastic, but they are not at translating to sales at a 14% per year annum rate.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Stephen Volkmann:
Just a couple of quick follow-ups. I think, Lee, when you sort of went around the horn on all the end markets, I didn't hear you mention anything regarding distributor inventory levels and maybe stocking is kind of waning or something, but I don't want to put words in your mouth. Anything to comment on there?
Lee Banks:
Steve, I don’t think it’s a big issue, I mean I’m sure there are some pockets out there, that aren’t apparent to me. But by and large that’s not something when I talk to the channel people that we’re worried about. I think a lot of that has worked its way out.
Stephen Volkmann:
Okay, great. Maybe for Jon, it feels like we are sort of tweaking down the guidance I guess for fiscal second-quarter a little bit. Correct me if you disagree, but is there anything to call out for modeling purposes, any kind of below the line item stuff that maybe bounces back or how do we think about that?
Jon Marten:
No, you’re right. I mean I think if there are some onetime events that Tom was talking about that happened in Q1, that was kind of good news for us, that are not going to repeat in Q2. You’re right, your observation is correct, it’s been tweak down just slightly. And there are no other new in different types of activities that are occurring here that would want to call out in a call like this. I think it’s a normal cost structure. Our cost structure is getting better, our volume is following a long our orders. Our orders are coming in the way that we had projected and so we are just a slight adjustments here for the slight bits of a good news here that we got in Q1, especially below the line.
Stephen Volkmann:
Great. That is all I have got. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Just back on simplification and the division consolidation, I mean you guys have done a great job early on. But Tom, you mentioned a lot of runway ahead. Can you maybe just speak to what are the really big opportunities as you go forward? And maybe along those lines just, Lee, you touched on international distribution maybe just expand on what you are doing there?
Tom Williams:
So Jeff, its Tom. I’ll start with the simplification and Lee can talk about international distribution. For us I think the biggest pull in the tent on simplification is the whole revenue of complexity and when you look at our divisions and you do a histogram of their sales and you look at that last couple of percent of revenue it has a significant, and I would underlying significant amount of part numbers, quote activity and SG&A that’s tied up in a relatively small percent of revenue. Now, we don’t want to walk away from that, we want to do it significantly more efficiently. So that’s a big element and because of the size of the company and then just the sheer magnitude of part numbers, that is something that will take time, but it’s going to be probably the biggest contributor to savings in the future on simplification. And we just now started scratching the surface of that. Related to that is organization design and process. So as we go through their product line complexity and simplify it, its old 80:20 type of concept. We are going to change organization design and processes associated and there will be speed, efficiencies, cost, et cetera. And in general an improvement in the ability to serve customers and ease of doing business with us, that’s the other big part of the simplification is, is to make it easier to business with Parker. We’ll look at traditional things in organization design like span of controls, number of layers, all those type of things then we will look at good old fashioned bureaucracy which Lee and I talked about it in the past, if you were to do our -- what used to be called internally in the Company, the Black Book of process which is our annual planning process. It was a process that would take 5 months, 20 financial schedules and literally thousands and thousands of people hours tied up in that process and we drove that down to eight weeks, eight schedules and significantly freed up time for people. So those are just an examples and color on that. We’re early days in this, but I think I would say it's got great momentum in the Company. So I’ll let Lee take over on what we’re doing on distribution internationally?
Lee Banks:
We have talked I mean many times that our distribution network is our greatest off-balance sheet asset that the company has and we have talked about North America being the gold standard in terms of how we compete and how we get to market. And when we’re putting the new Win Strategy together, although we had done a lot, we were cognizant that we still had not built this network out at the rate that we wanted to throughout the rest of the world. So as we rolled up the new Win Strategy we put a team of senior executives that know how to get this done, focusing on emerging regions in Europe and focusing on Asia Pacific. And we are really encouraged by the progress we are making 12 moths to 15 months into it right now. So very positive.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay, thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Sprague:
Just a couple of questions of clarification first. I just wanted to make sure I had straight what Jon said about restructuring. You made a comment about 20%. I don't know Jon if you were saying 20% of a restructuring benefits are in the first half. If you could clarify that and then just a couple of follow-ups.
Jon Marten:
No you got that right, 20% of the savings that we get from the restructuring that we’re incurring for this year we will get in the first half, so yes.
Jeffrey Sprague:
And then on Aerospace, obviously with these wins and orders you do have this development cost bubble. I’m wonder if you could just give us some sense of how elevated your R&D or E&D is today versus where you expect to see it say in that 2020 horizon?
Jon Marten:
We are at the round numbers at about the 8% level today. We have as you know moved it down from 11% a few years ago. So the 7% to 8% range is the range that historically is a number that we are the most comfortable with. But overall our level of development cost are aligned with what our expectations are of our customers. If there is new and different types of requirements where we are the technical experts then we will be in many cases the designer of choice and that so will fluctuate, but for right now given today's environment 7% to 8% seems to be a right level for us and we are at about 8 right now. So if in could just have one more question and we will wrap it up for today. I hope that answers your question, Jeff.
Operator:
Our last question comes from the line of Alex Blanton with Clear Harbor Asset Management. Your line is open.
Alex Blanton:
Just a question on the CapEx. The first quarter you had $32.5 million which is about 1.2% sales. That is about half of what you normally do which in turn is half as a percent of sales of what it was 10 years ago. What do you expect CapEx to be for the year? What percentage of sales?
Jon Marten:
It will be in the range of 1.6 to 2.0 for the year. So 1.6 to 2.0 CapEx as a percent of sales.
Alex Blanton:
Okay, so that is going to be a pretty low figure compared with what you were 10 years ago.
Jon Marten:
We are not nowhere near as required capital that we did 10 years ago Alex, and that 1.6 to 2.0 includes a lot of reinvestments into the company, but no you are right we are nowhere near where we five years ago, let alone 10.
Alex Blanton:
And that is mainly due to the lean efforts, correct?
Jon Marten:
Yes, it's hard to articulate on the phone call like this, how much lean has transformed our company. And when you add on to that all these affords that we are going through from a business simplification standpoint and how that’s impacting our CapEx plans, we are just seeing a lot of great momentum from that. And so yes, that’s correct.
Alex Blanton:
So is it just a matter of raising your margins, [indiscernible] profits, the higher profits [indiscernible], when it comes to allocating it to CapEx and [indiscernible] acquisitions?
Jon Marten:
Yes, we are from a CapEx standpoint we feel very good about our positioning there and of course we are discipline, we are using in a IRR approach on that just as we do on the DCS from an acquisition standpoint. And we remain disciplined on all of our right capital allocation plans. And that’s our goal, as Tom said we want to be great deployers of the cash going forward. So I hope that helps you out, Alex.
Alex Blanton:
I just have one suggestion on the slide that you list your cash flow -- I guess it is slide number -- cash flow from operating activities, Slide 12. I would give a simplified cash flow statement actually there. You are not presenting the individual components, the major components of cash flow and I realize that is in the cash flow statement in the operating statements, but it would be very helpful to have it right here on this slide so people could see it and wouldn't have to refer back to the cash flow statement. Just a simplified one showing the CapEx, showing changes in inventory and the working capital and so on.
Jon Marten:
Okay, well that’s a [multiple speakers] yes, no good suggestion Alex, we will definitely take that one on and take a real hard look at that for you and all of our investors. So I think with that.
Alex Blanton:
You gave the number when you were talking but they are not on the slide.
Jon Marten:
Okay, all right. We’ll try to be a little bit clearer next time. Thanks Alex and with that I think this concludes our Q&A earnings call. I want to thank everybody for joining us today; I want to just to be assure everybody that Robin and Ryan and will be available throughout the day, to take your calls, should you have any further questions. And thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
Executives:
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Lee C. Banks - President, Chief Operating Officer & Director
Analysts:
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. David Raso - Evercore ISI Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Q4 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct and question and answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jon Marten, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please go ahead, sir.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay. Thank you, Candace. And, again, good morning, everybody, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's fourth quarter FY 2016 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Tom Williams and President and Chief Operating Officer Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides, together with the audio webcast replay, will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements, as well as our non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any references to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Turning to today's agenda on slide number 3, to begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2016. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's fourth quarter and full-year 2016 performance, together with the guidance for FY 2017. Tom will then provide a few summary comments, and then we'll open the call for a Q&A session. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to slides number 4 and 5.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon, and welcome to everybody on the call. We appreciate your participation this morning. Today, I'd like to cover the following key topics
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Tom. And at this time please refer to slide number 6. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $1.90 versus $1.43 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of $0.47. This excludes business realignment expenses of $0.13, which compares to $0.16 for the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings per share for the full year 2016 were $6.46 versus $7.25 for the full year 2015. Total realignment expenses and pension termination costs were $0.57 for the full year 2016, and that compares to adjustments for business realignment and voluntary retirement expenses of $0.28 for the full year 2015. On slide number 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.43 for the fourth quarter of 2015 to $1.90 for the fourth quarter of this year. Increases to adjusted per-share income include a reduction of corporate G&A; interest and other expense equating to $0.14 per share, which is a result of savings realized from FY 2016 simplification efforts, as Tom just mentioned; one-time credits booked in Q4 FY 2016; and the comparison to a higher expense in Q4 2015 from early retirement expenses incurred, and a lower effective tax rate in FY 2016 of 28% versus 40.9% in Q4 of 2015. This all contributed to $0.30 per share. The impact of fewer shares outstanding due to the company's share repurchase activity equated to an increase of $0.05 per share. A reduction of $0.02 in adjusted per-share income was a result of lower adjusted segment operating income, which was driven by the strengthened U.S. dollar currency translation and weakened end markets, which approximates a little bit more than $200 million quarter to quarter. On slide number 8, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $7.25 for the full year 2015 to $6.46 for the full year 2016. For the full year 2016, increases to adjusted earnings per share include reduced corporate G&A expense equating to $0.20 per share; $0.13 per share due to a lower effective tax rate of 27.6% in FY 2016 versus 29.3% in FY 2015, which is due to favorable discrete benefits booked during FY 2016; and $0.36 from fewer shares outstanding, reflecting the full-year impact of Parker's enhanced share repurchase program. Decreases to adjusted earnings per share for FY 2016 were lower segment operating income of $1 per share due to the impact of the weakened end markets and higher interest and other expense equating to $0.48 per share, which compares to a sizable one-time favorable currency adjustment recognized in FY 2015 and the full-year impact of interest expense on incremental debt issued in November of 2014. Moving to slide number 9, with a review of the total company sales and segment operating margins for the fourth quarter and full year, total company organic sales in the fourth quarter decreased by 5.3% over the same quarter last year. There was minimal contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions. Currency impact as a percentage of sales was slightly higher than our guide, equating to a negative impact on reported sales of $31 million or 1% in the quarter. Total segment operating margin for the fourth quarter adjusted for realignment costs incurred in the quarter was 15.6% versus 14.9% for the same quarter last year. Business realignment costs incurred in the quarter were $25 million versus $27 million last year. The lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $462 million versus $468 million last year reflects the meaningful impact of the weakened industrial end markets, partially offset by the savings realized from our very large simplification and restructuring actions taken throughout the year. For the full year, organic sales in fiscal year 2017 (sic) [2016] decreased by 7.7%. Contributions to sales from acquisitions were minimal. The effect of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $404 million or 3.2% of sales for the full year. Total company segment operating margin for fiscal year 2016, adjusted for realignment cost incurred during the year, was 14.8% versus 14.9% in fiscal year 2015. Business realignment expenses incurred in FY 2016 was $107 million. Slide number 10 discusses the business segments. And I'll start first with the Diversified Industrial North America segment. For the fourth quarter, North American organic sales decreased by 10.3% as compared to the same quarter last year. There was a nominal impact from acquisitions and a negative impact from currency of 0.6% in the quarter. Operating margin for the fourth quarter adjusted for realignment costs was 18% of sales versus 17.3% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred totaled $5 million, as compared to $15 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $226 million, as compared to $244 million, which was driven by the reduced volume as a result of the key industrial weak markets. For the full year, organic sales for the fiscal year 2016 decreased by 12.4%. Contributions to sales from acquisitions were minimal. The impact of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $60 million or 1% of sales for the full year. For the full year 2016, operating margin adjusted for realignment cost was 16.8% of sales versus 17% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred totaled $42 million as compared to $16 million in fiscal 2015. Adjusted operating income for fiscal 2016 was $832 million as compared to $972 million in the prior year. Now, turning to slide number 11, I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial segments. Organic sales for the Diversified Industrial International segment – organic sales for the fourth quarter in the segment decreased by 3%. Currency translation negatively impacted sales by 2%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter, adjusted for business realignment costs, was 12.6% of sales versus 10.9% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $18 million as compared to $6 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $137 million as compared to $124 million, which, despite the weakened top line, reflects the offsetting savings resulting from realignment actions taken in the current year as well as the prior fiscal years. For the full year, organic sales for fiscal year 2016 decreased by 6%. The impact of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $339 million or a negative 7.1% of sales for the year. For the full year 2016, operating margin, adjusted for realignment costs, was 12.3% of sales versus 12.9% in the prior year. Restructuring expenses totaled $61 million as compared to $27 million in fiscal 2015. Adjusted operating income for fiscal 2016 was $509 million as compared to $611 million last year. And I'll now move to slide number 12 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 2.2% for the quarter. Neither acquisitions nor currency really impacted revenues. Strong growth in military OEM and military aftermarket sales were the drivers for the quarterly performance. Operating margin for the fourth quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 16.4% of sales versus 16.9% in the prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $1 million as compared to $6 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was flat at $99 million for both Q4 2016 and the prior year, reflecting the impact of the reduced commercial sales volume in the quarter, albeit partially offset by reduced development costs as a percentage of sales. For the full year, organic sales for fiscal year 2016 increased by 0.5% of sales. For the full year 2016, operating margin adjusted for realignment costs was 15.1% of sales versus 13.5% in prior year. Business realignment expenses incurred totaled $4 million as compared to $6 million related in the prior year. And adjusted operating income for the fiscal year was $341 million as compared to $305 million last year, which was largely attributed to the reduction of development cost to slightly less than 8% of sales, together with the savings from the business realignment activities. Going to slide number 13. Moving to that slide is a detail about order changes by segment. As a reminder, our orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year over year excluding acquisitions, divestitures, and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders improved to a negative 1% for the quarter-end, reflecting a decelerating rate of decline in key industrial end markets, including oil and gas, construction, and agricultural. Diversified Industrial North America orders decreased to a negative 10%. Diversified Industrial International orders improved to a positive 3% for the quarter. Aerospace System orders increased to plus 14% for the quarter. Looking at slide number 14, we report the cash flow from operations. For the fourth quarter, cash from operating activities was very strong at $488 million or 16.5% of sales. This compares to 16.2% of sales for the same period last year. For the full year, cash flow from operating activities for fiscal 2016 was $1.170 billion or 10.3% of sales, as compared to 10.2% last year. When adjusted for the $200 million voluntary pension contribution made during the year, adjusted cash flow from operating activities was $1.370 billion or 12.1% of sales as compared to 10.2% in fiscal 2015. There was no pension contribution made during FY 2015. The significant uses of cash during the year included $158 million for the company's repurchase of common shares and $342 million for the payment of shareholders' dividends. And there was $149 million for CapEx, equating to 1.3% of sales for FY 2016. Now, turning to guidance for FY 2017. The full-year earnings guidance for FY 2017 is outlined here. Guidance is provided on an adjusted basis. Segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of $48 million, which are forecasted to be incurred throughout FY 2017. Total sales are expected to be in the range of negative 1.5% to positive 2.1% as compared to the prior year. Adjusted organic growth at the midpoint is flat. Currency in the guidance is not forecasted to impact sales. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of June 30, 2016, and we hold those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the upcoming FY 2017. Total Parker adjusted segment operating are margins forecast to be between 15.2% and 15.6%. This compares to 14.8% for FY 2016 on an adjusted basis. The guidance for below-the-line items, which includes corporate G&A, interest, and other expense, is $469 million for the year at the midpoint. The full-year tax rate is projected at 29%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full-year guidance is 135.5 million. And for the full-year guidance, on an adjusted earnings per share, is $6.40 to $7.10, or $6.75 at the midpoint. This guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $48 million to be included in FY 2017. This is the only adjustments that we make to our guidance. It's just realignment expenses. The effect of this restructuring on EPS is approximately $0.25 savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be $30 million and are fully reflected in the adjusted operating margin guidance range. Some additional key assumptions for the fiscal year guidance are sales are divided 48% first half, 52% second half, which is a normal distribution split for a year for us. Adjusted segment operating income is divided 46% in the first half, 54% in the second half. EPS in the first half versus the second half is $2.93 and $3.82 for the second half. Q1 FY 2017 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $1.52 at the midpoint, and this excludes $0.09 of business realignment expenses. On slide number 16, just some influences on EPS for 2017 as compared to 2016. On slide 16, you'll find a reconciliation of the major components of FY 2017 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.75 per share at the midpoint from the prior FY 2016 EPS of $6.46 per share. Increases include $0.40 from an increased segment operating income and $0.11 from fewer shares outstanding and reduced interest expense. Key components of the decrease include a $0.13 per share reduction from taxes, reflecting a rate from continuing operations of 29%, and $0.09 per share reduction from increased corporate G&A and other expense as a result of normalized levels, not including one-time favorable settlements realized in the prior year, primarily in Q4, in part by reduced pension expense due to the company's adoption of the spot rate methodology for calculating annual pension expense. This has a total impact of $0.11 for FY 2017. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisition and divestitures that might close during FY 2017. For consistency, we ask that you exclude only the restructuring expenses from your published estimates. This concludes my prepared remarks. Tom, I'll turn the call back over to you for your summary comments.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon. We are very proud of the fiscal 2016 results. I'd like to thank Parker team members around the world for their efforts. These accomplishments carry even greater significance given the $1.35 billion drop in sales that occurred during the year. While we still have much more to achieve, we are positioned well for fiscal 2017 and beyond under the framework provided by the Win Strategy. Together, we are building a stronger and better Parker. I look forward to sharing more with you as the year progress. So at this time, Candace, we're ready to take questions if you want to go ahead and open the lines.
Operator:
Thank you. And our first question comes from Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning. I guess a couple questions on the guidance. One of the things that struck me is generally when you guys guide for the fiscal year you come in well below consensus and you're sort of at the midpoint, which struck me. So any comment on that? But specifically, I'm trying to get comfortable with – can you give color on the orders in North America, which I think were down in the 10% range, which I guess surprised me. So I'm trying to bridge that with your sales guidance in North America, which seems more optimistic. And then at the same time, on a down sales year over year, you're expecting margin improvement on an adjusted basis. So if you could address those issues, I'd appreciate it. Thank you.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Jamie, it's Tom. Let me just – the topics are kind of interwoven, so I'll start with the guide, what was behind it. And I'll start with, in case those of you that were on the phone didn't hear my opening comments, this is going to be year of sales leveling off, which after the sharp reduction that we had last year is going to be a very refreshing change for all of our people around the world. But the way we forecasted this is Q1's going to be soft, moving to essentially flat in Q2 with 1% to 2% sales growth in the second half. So our thoughts behind the numbers. The natural resource related end markets – so construction, ag, mining, and oil and gas – are moderating. Now, they're going to continue to be, year over year when we finish 2017, negative. But they're going to get to be less and less of a drag, especially in the second half. When you look at order entry that we had in Q4, in particular what drove our thoughts with international is that we had a positive international, plus 3%, and that was made up of Europe being basically flat, minus 1% in that area; Asia, plus 6%; and Latin America, plus 19%. So what's really driving our international sales forecast is a forecast of Europe being relatively flat and Asia-Pacific and Latin America being up a little bit, driving an international forecast of plus 2%. Now, you talk about North America. Now, what we saw in Q4 I characterized as continued choppiness around what we saw from Q3 to Q4. I mean, during the quarter, April started off a little bit softer than we would've liked. And then May and June were a little bit better. What we're seeing for North America for the full year, to give you some context as to the negative 3% that we have out there, is that we have a first half of minus 5% and a second half of minus 1%. And what's driving that is if you look at the natural resource related end markets that I described, they really bottomed the North America in our second half of the year. So we're not really anticipating any new catalysts – any new activity that's going to drive growth or sustainability beyond our current levels for natural resources. But what you're seeing in North America is easier comps in the second half, and we do have growth in North America in non-natural resource related markets like machine tools, telecom, life sciences, turf, refrigeration, that is going to now help to offset some of that – not completely because we're still end the North America at a minus 3%. Now, if I could, I'm just going to give you context – our view for the total end markets for the whole fiscal 2017, and I want to put an asterisk by this. I'm not trying to describe the entire end market. I'm just trying to describe our performance in that end market. So I have them in three buckets, positive, neutral, and negative. So on the positive side, what makes up our forecast is aerospace, lawn and turf, passenger rail, refrigeration and air conditioning, semicon, and telecom. In the neutral area is automotive, distribution, and life sciences, and power generation. Now, of significance is distribution in neutral now. Well, that's not an end market, it's a big channel for us, and the fact that distribution moves to neutral helps the year stabilize quite a bit. And then under negative is construction, farm and ag, forestry, general industrial, heavy-duty truck, marine, mining, and oil and gas. So that's the landscape, and I probably gave you more than you wanted to know, but that's what we think for 2017.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
That's helpful on the top line. Sorry, just to clarify, though, because I'm trying to understand the margin story.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, all right.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Like if you could tell me the incremental savings from restructuring actions taken in 2016 that help 2017, and then the $48 million of charges in 2017, how much of that do we realize? The $48 million in cost, how much of that do we realize in savings? And I'm assuming most of that's in North America. And then I'll get back in queue. Thank you.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. Jamie, Jon here. Just for the restructuring in FY 2017, of the $48 million, we're expecting $30 million in savings in FY 2017. And the restructuring savings that would have been incurred based on FY 2016 actions rolling into FY 2017 is about $25 million. So that is obviously helping our margins going forward, and it's a big driver to our future health, as Tom outlined earlier. So those are the details there. They are about half North America, half international. And one other way to describe them is that they're about one-half simplification efforts and one-half traditional restructuring, which would include some plant closures.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. Thank you. I'll get back in queue. I appreciate the color.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Joshua Pokrzywinski of Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hi, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Yeah. Just maybe to follow up on Jamie's question a little bit. Can you talk about some of the mix dynamics that you're seeing in North America that could maybe support a bit of a margin lift here? Maybe ex restructuring, how should we think about the underlying incrementals and decrementals and the progression through the year, and maybe what you saw in the fourth quarter that gives you the confidence in that launch pad?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
I mean, if I take Q4 sequentially, I was talking about there's really kind of two things that we saw
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Is it fair to say that of the – and I'm sorry, Jon, I missed all the numbers that you gave for restructuring, plus carry-over restructuring. Sounded like something around $40 million, $45 million. If I take those and maybe the gap in your guidance is another $30 million or so to get to the midpoint for segment op income, fair to say that that other $30 million is mix? I mean, I guess there's really not a lot of revenue growth. Presumably, price-cost isn't an inordinate benefit this fiscal year. Just trying to bridge that extra little piece to get to the midpoint.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I mean, Josh, altogether I think you've got it. I mean, it's going to be mix. It's going to be further productivity that we're going to realize. It's going to be Lean. It's going to be the normal Parker operating protocols that we use. And we are expecting, without regard to the realignment that we did in FY 2016 and we plan to do in FY 2017, to become even more productive in FY 2017. And so, yes, that's how we bridge that gap internally here.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Okay. So, there's not a scenario, though, where on an underlying volume basis when things are still tough, decrementals kind of ex all the productivity in Lean and restructuring are very low and then you still expect them to accelerate. It sounds like volume is neutral-ish, but there's just a lot of heavy lifting that's going on behind the scenes doing most of that op improvement.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I would say that that's correct. I mean, the volume being flat, as Tom described, in North America, maybe getting a little bit better as the year goes on, and FY 2017 is going to help us from a marginal standpoint in North America and internationally. We are seeing good productivity gains that we've made from the restructurings that we've done in FY 2016 and really, frankly, for FY 2015 also. So we feel like we are very well-positioned from a cost structure standpoint, and we are poised with any tailwinds at all at the high level to really be able to generate some impressive incremental margins, once the volume turns around.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks for the color, guys. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is now open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hey, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So, I think, Jon, you're talking a little bit here about volume in natural resource markets being essentially flat and the comps get easier as the year goes on. I think we kind of entered last year with a similar expectation of some improvement in the back half of the year, which obviously didn't materialize. Could you talk about the differences between what you're seeing in the market now versus 12 months ago that gives you that confidence that you are going to see a potential uptick in the second half?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Nathan, it's Tom. I think the confidence would be, if you just took oil and gas as an example. Nobody could've anticipated going back 12 months ago the rig count reduction that happened, but now the rig counts have stabilized, and the last several weeks, minus maybe a week or two, have actually improved. We're not forecasting them to get any better, but just by the comps, and the fact that they've decelerated or are starting to hold that level, it makes our second half naturally a little bit better. I don't think we're out on a limb with North America at a minus 1% in the second half, given that we normally have a second half a little bit better, and the fact that I think we've seen the worst behind us in the natural resource areas, and those non-natural resource areas that I mentioned starting to show some growth for us. So I think that's why we picked what we did. And at this point, we're as confident as we can be. Of course, every quarter we'll update you as that changes.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Thanks. Is it possible for you to parse out what you think the impact might be on North American orders from the natural resource markets? I mean, you had a nice plus 3% in international and still minus 10% in North America. How much do you think natural resource markets are impacting that in North America versus international?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Nathan, it's Tom again. It's hard to do on an order basis. I'll give you what we saw sequentially on sales. This is what I was mentioning earlier. We saw natural resources in that minus 10% to minus 15% range, including the distribution related to natural resources. And then the non-natural resources were all zero to plus 15%, depending on – refrigeration and air conditioning being the strongest given this time of year. So that's the mix. And the natural resource areas – again, that's about where we've been, give or take a little bit. And as we look to the second half of the year, those comps just get easier for us, and that becomes less of a drag. And the positive end markets start to get us to the minus 1% second half that we forecasted.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And just one on how to think about the incremental margins, Tom, you mentioned in your prepared comments that you've had historically low decrementals during this down cycle, which is obviously a tribute to the business. Does it also change the profile of the incremental margins that we should be thinking about when volume returns? Is the cost structure structurally changed to the point where you would expect higher incremental margins on volume as volume comes back?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Nathan, it's Tom. I think we would. I mean, historically, when we've come out of a downturn, we would be maybe at plus 40%, and then start to – every quarter that went from the initial uptick, we start to glide down to a plus 30%, and then as you get deeper into a growth segment (42:19) you're in the 20s, potentially probably bottoming out in the upper teens. But I think what we've done structurally, and the fact that we are simpler, leaner, and have a much better cost structure, we would never been able to put up the MROSes that we put up without doing the actions that we've taken. And just – it's worth repeating again, the all-in reported MROS, 19.5% – so that's all the restructuring – $109 million, which is the highest restructuring we've done in the history of the company. Even with all that, we put up a 19.5% MROS. So, yes, I think it can be higher. Could I peg a number? No, that would be difficult to do, but I would expect it to be higher than we've done historically.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. Thanks very much for the help.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. And nice job on the cost control this quarter.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Joe.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
My first question is really around just distribution. So, Tom, your comments that distribution's going to be neutral – or your (43:25) expectation is neutral in 2017. Can you give us some thoughts there? I mean, clearly as we ended the quarter, the data points that we got from the industrial markets were pretty weak. We got a slightly more positive data point today from Fastenal. And so maybe just comment on what you're seeing in distribution that will give you the confidence that it actually can be neutral in 2017.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Hey, Joe. This is Tom. I'll start off, and I'd like Lee to just tag-team. I mean, the confidence here is that when we look at how the quarter came out, sequentially distribution was basically flat, and those non-natural resource related areas that we've talked about in the past in the various regions are growing mid-single digits. And we have a really on-purpose program to add distribution, especially in the emerging areas in Asia, in Eastern Europe, Africa, Latin America. And our teams are working very hard at that. And when we look at the emerging markets, they're showing some positive growth in distribution. So I think that combination of all those gives us confidence that we can come in at a neutral for distribution. I don't know if Lee has anything else to add.
Lee C. Banks - President, Chief Operating Officer & Director:
No, Joe, I'd just say commenting on North America, and I've spent quite a bit of time with these guys. There's just no doubt that there's still a big hangover from the natural resource markets, oil and gas being a big one. But have we seen that, (44:54) you do get this impression that things are flattening out. We do see some signs of MRO spend taking place, and it's really a lack of cannibalization of idle rigs that are out there. So we see activity there. And then I think there's just general encouragement through the channel that with the continued strength in the automotive end markets and continued positive PMI data that they are cautiously optimistic that there's some positive signs going forward.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So, Lee, is it your sense that from an inventory standpoint, we've now gotten to levels that we need to be in order for your growth rates to reflect end market demand?
Lee C. Banks - President, Chief Operating Officer & Director:
Yeah. I mean, I would say in general that the whole destocking question, I don't see big evidence of that in place. That's not to say there may not be a pocket here or there. But in general I would say inventories are in line with the current activity.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. And then maybe one follow-on question for Jon. Can you maybe talk a little bit about your cash bridge for next year? So specifically I'm interested in your pension-funded status, whether there's going to be an additional contribution in 2017, and then any other puts and takes that you could talk about from a cash flow perspective for next year? Thank you.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yes, Joe. I think, first, on the pension contribution, that is possible. I don't want to say that we are doing it or we're not. We're going to have to really look at that very hard, but that is possible. And, if we do it, it would be in the normal range that we've done it over the last several years, other than in FY 2015, which we didn't do anything. And I think that, from a capital standpoint here, from a CapEx, we would be at about 2% of sales. And those are the kind of the big drivers here for us. Our pension expense for next year, as I tried to mention in my comments, was going to be impacted positively in total, all together, by $0.11 impacting FY 2017 due to the spot rate methodology that we've adopted, as well as many other puts and takes that go into making those estimates and doing the accounting for that. So the CapEx of 2%, we never forecast acquisitions, of course, and from a pension expense standpoint, it's quite possible that we would have a normal contribution there, and that's about what I can give you right now. Is there any more color that you would want at this point?
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
I guess just what the funded status of your pension is today and whether you expect working capital to be positive or negative next year.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, I think working capital is going to be positive. Now, we're going to show sales growth in Q4, so that will be a slight drag. But we are making tremendous progress on our cost controls, as well as our inventory management. Our inventories are, with this kind of a decline in sales, are at a historic low as a percent of sales. We expect our ability to manage through inventories to more than offset the drag that we might have from the AR as our Q4 shows a little bit better. Our funded status right now for our pension plans is at 65%, which is a little bit lower than we would want it to be, and that's pure assets to liabilities. Of course, regulatorily, we're well over 100% required, but there would be an argument to make that from a voluntary contribution standpoint that it would make sense given our assets and liability funded status at 65% right now.
Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Thank you, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from David Raso of Evercore. Your line is now open.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Hi. A quick clarification first before my question. The savings, the carryover plus the incremental from this year, what's the exact number again?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay. The savings carryover into FY 2017, $25 million. The savings related to the FY 2017 restructuring, $30 million.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
Okay. So basically the segment profit for the year, total company, has guided up about $72 million, $55 from savings and $21 million from pension. Is that essentially the number you have? (49:56)
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, those are the numbers. I hate to draw a straight line between the restructuring and the savings and our increased guidance, because there's a lot of other factors, as you well know, Dave, that go into that. But, yeah, that would be one way to look at it.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
That's a generic flat revenues, keep profit flat ideally on it, at $20 million plus for pension and $55 million for save, and that's the generic framework.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
My question was the international growth cadence. Can you walk us through – and you said it earlier, I apologize – I know you said it for North America, but I might have missed it internationally. The up 3% for the year, 3.2% to be exact – how do we get there from the down 3% we're exiting the year? Comps get easier, orders are up, but if you can help us with the cadence.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
David, it's Tom. So international, up 3%, 1 point of that is acquisitions; that's the Jäger acquisition for the year. So it's 2 points of growth for international, and our forecast is that that's Europe at flat, Asia plus 4%, and Latin America plus 15%. Now, recognize Latin America is a small number, and it's balancing off a very sharp decline. And what's supporting that is the orders that we saw in Q4 and has continued into July is that of the international orders, we saw Europe around flat. We've seen Asia orders plus 6%, and Latin America orders plus 19%. So we see some opportunities in Asia and Latin America in particular, and we see Europe as neutral. That's what's making up the plus 2% for international.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
And the cadence of that then? Could we be positive by fiscal 2Q? How quickly do we get positive to get the full year to 2%?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
At the end of the first half.
David Raso - Evercore ISI:
End of first half. Terrific. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc. Your line is now open.
Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. So you mentioned capital allocation, you'd be kind of within your range of targets for buyback. And just with six months to go from kind of completing that, can you just update us on as we look past that how you may be thinking about capital allocation, the same or different, or do we get some formal multiyear announcement? Just flesh that out. And maybe while you're at it, touch on acquisition pipeline.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, Jeff. It's Tom. So let me start with just a clarification. We only have one more quarter left in the share repurchase plan. It was October to October, 2014 to 2016. So we'll come in at the $2 billion level of that range that we said. And what's really kind of – the factors that we've considered of what that is that 99% of our cash is permanently invested overseas. We do have a desire to maintain that A rating, and our debt to total cap is at around almost 40%. And when we started the program, we were at $13 billion company; now we're $11.4 billion. Now, we're very proud of the double-digit cash flow that we've been able to generate, but it's double digits off of a smaller number. So that's what is kind of framing why we're going to come in at the low end of the range. Now, going forward, our desire – let me first state that we want to be great generators of cash, and I think we've done a great job there. We're going to continue to do an even better job, and we want to be known as a company that really spins off a lot of cash. On the flip side, we want to be known as a company that deploys it very effectively on behalf of the shareholders, and you've heard me say this before, but those maybe have not, I'll repeat it. First and foremost, as far as our priorities, is to continue our dividend track record. Then we're going to fund organic growth because it's the most efficient growth that you can fund. And then really it's a dynamic review on a case-by-case basis between share repurchase and acquisitions, and really with the goal of generating the best long-term value for our shareholders. On the share repurchase, you won't see us do another announcement type of process. I think what's better for shareholders is to be active, to have a muscular balance sheet, but to tell you after the fact, because when we announce in advance, we're buying into our own wind, and I don't think that helps shareholders. I think we want to do it after the fact. That's the most effective way to use our cash and to help shareholders. Regarding acquisitions, the pipeline is active. But I talked last quarter, and the valuations continue to be, I would call it, historically high. But I do think time is on our side here because we buy properties in spaces that we understand. So we understand the growth rates. I think sellers' expectations on growth rates is going to start to temper as they recognize that the growth rates that they think their business is going to do is not going to actually come to fruition. And I think you'll see our pipeline become more actionable. We've always been disciplined buyers. And we'll always continue to buy properties that we know we can deliver on for our shareholders. So we'll look at all that. And, again, the goal is to have a muscular balance sheet and do what's best for our shareholders.
Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. Then just as a follow-on on international. Can you speak to what's inflecting in Asia to drive that plus 6%, and then conversely in Europe, any kind of near-term signals of deterioration around Brexit?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Jeff, I'll start on Asia. I'm going to let Jon make some comments on Brexit. But what we saw on Asia, we actually had positive sales in Asia for June and with the positive order entry that we had in Q4 and will continue into July. We saw plusses in life sciences – I'm speaking about Asia in general – passenger rail, power gen, machine tools, and probably of significance, because for the many years we've been talking about this, we've started to see some signs of life in mobile construction, in particular India and Japan, but the good thing is China has finally flattened out, and we've actually saw some new incremental orders in China. And we have all the countries across Asia growing, with the exception of Korea, and Korea just has a little more exposure to some of those global OEMs, and so that will to start to recover as well. So that's what behind our thoughts on Asia, and I'll let Jon talk about Brexit.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Just a quick comment on the Brexit impact, Jeff. We're in a position where we manufacture and ship out of the UK more than we buy into the UK. And so, since we export more than we import, we don't see that really having an impact on our near-term financials. Now, to the extent that the Brexit impact long term starts to impact the economics there, we'll be watching that very closely, but the UK overall, in terms of our sales there, will not meaningfully drive our top line numbers in any event.
Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks a lot, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. And our next question comes from Steve Volkmann of Jefferies. Your line is now open.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys, for two more minutes. Can I just follow up? I think, Tom, you made some initial comments about simplification plans. And I'm curious if there's kind of more to come in that area in terms of things like SKU reduction, or business unit consolidation, or maybe even have some more divestitures. I know you've done a couple of small ones here and there. Can you just talk a little bit about what that's going to look like over the next couple years?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Steve, it's Tom. I think there's really been great momentum for us across the company on simplification. I think I mentioned in my opening comments, the combination of putting simplification with our Lean enterprise efforts is really giving us an amplification of being able to look at costs and processes differently than maybe we have in the past. But, as I've mentioned before, and I'll kind of give you some comments as to where I think we can go on these, there's four big areas that we're focused on. The first is that whole revenue complexity, or maybe another way of saying it is that product line simplification, the tail of revenue, the last couple percent of revenue. We are in very early days on that. That is probably our biggest opportunity going forward, and that will be a multiyear journey as we continue to find more efficient ways to service that tail, take care of our customers, but work on the SG&A, the speed at which we can handle those type of orders, speed at which we can service customers. A lot of organization design activity will happen related to that. So that will be a net win for our customers as well as us, but very early days on that. That's the harder part because there's thousands and thousands of part numbers to go through. That's the more complicated part of it. We've done a lot of work organizationally and process-wise; that's the second bullet. And I still see lots of opportunities there. I think you'll see a focus on the number of levels within the company, span of controls, just putting together an organization design that is the most effective design for our customers and for our people. On the division consolidations, I think we've taken a pretty big step already on that piece. We had 28 divisions, so basically a quarter of all of our divisions going through some kind of consolidation, down to 14. So that dropped our total count of divisions from 115 to 101. Lee is working with the presidents on that. And we don't have anything to announce because, in fairness to our people, we would not announce that in a public forum like this. But we've already taken a big step there. I think you'll see just more fine-tuning on that as we go. And then on bureaucracy, there's lots and lots of opportunities within the company. The whole annual plan process that we redid was a huge upside for people as far as being able to free up their time to do other things. So I would say we're very pleased with where we've come so far, but there's a lot more to go on that. And if you have anything else, Steve, I'd be happy to answer any more.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Just on potential divestitures going forward?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Oh. Yeah, so we continue to look at the divestitures. That's an ongoing basis. But we like the portfolio as a whole. And you look at our nine motion control technologies, and you look at the seven operating groups. 60% of our customers buy from four or more of those seven groups. So our customers see the power of the systems we can do, the synergies that we can do, across those technologies. That being said, we still look at properties that we think potentially weren't strategic to us or where we weren't the best corporate owner. We'll continue to do that, but I would characterize that as very small, trimming around the edges type of divestitures.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Great. I appreciate it. Thanks.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay. And Candace, I see that we're running up against it here. Could we just take one last phone call here, please?
Operator:
Absolutely. Our final question comes from the line of Andy Casey of Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks a lot. Good morning, everybody.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hey, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Got a question on Aerospace, one backward-looking and then a little bit forward-looking. The first – can you give a little more color about the relative performance of commercial versus military, if you want to break it OE versus aftermarket in the quarter? And then also, a little more color behind what drove the 50 basis point margin decline versus last year?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay. On the margin decline, basically, last year, there were a few contractual settlements in the Aerospace numbers. They did not repeat for this year. Of course, those are lumpy, and they can come sporadically. And so that's really the driver there, Andy. Now, from breaking those numbers down a little bit in terms of the sales, we are basically essentially flat in the commercial market. That's being kind of impacted by the ability for us to be in a position where our bizjet reduction is being overcome by our normal commercial increase. There's not been a significant change in the aftermarket there, and it's been basically flat for us. From a military standpoint, both OE and commercial, that has been up low double digits for us in the quarter, and that would be reflected not only in our sales but in our orders, and again all of these data that I give to you, because it's such a long-term business, it tends to be very lumpy. Our perfect world, we would be 50% commercial, 50% military. We're not now. I mean, we are 65% commercial, and the balance military right now. And in a perfect world, we'd be 50%-50% OEM versus aftermarket, and we're at 66% OEM right now. So that would be indicative of further aftermarket revenues to come as we are successful in our entry into service for all the commercial aircraft, and as the military ramps up over the next several years on some of the key programs that we're on. And so we have a lot of very high expectations for our performance and our growth there in Aerospace, and it's been a key to our successful FY 2016, and key to our guidance in FY 2017, too. So I hope that gives you some color there, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
It does, Jon. Thank you. And then I guess two more – I'm sorry to belabor it. But on Aerospace, on the guidance, modest growth, kind of flattish to modest growth, and margins flat to up 40 basis points. Is the margin growth or the potential expansion really mix driven, or are there other factors that are driving that?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, I think it's going to be efficiency. It's going to be the same adherence to all the programs that Tom has outlined before in our Aerospace segment. And it is going to be a natural mix, a positive for us here into FY 2017. Our growth on our new programs is going to be in the low single digits, and our growth in the repairs and aftermarket is going to be in the low single digits for FY 2017. And we also would expect to see our normal growth in our military aftermarket in FY 2017. So there's no one segment of the Aerospace that is driving the growth, and there's no one answer for you on the margins. It's more mix, and it's our ability to just continue to be productive in Aerospace on the margins, and it's across-the-board increases at each one of the major segments there in FY 2017, too.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And I'll follow up on that offline. On the diversified international, if I strip out – take kind of 50/50 split on the savings literally, if I strip that out, it looks like the core incrementals are somewhere around mid-20% range. Is that just application of what you'd expect in year one of some sort of recovery after the downdraft we've seen? Or is there upside opportunity given the Lean operations relative to the past?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I think that it is a reflection of our ability to implement Lean. There is an uptick in of course the incremental returns they're going to get, because as Tom and Lee have kind of described, we're going to see an upturn in sequential revenues as the year goes on, especially in Industrial international. That's our best estimate right now. And so we will see some marginal returns there. That 20% number, it seems, off the top of my head, reasonable, but I don't want to give you the impression that there's not also a lot of favorable disposition in our international Industrial margins because of our ability to continue to penetrate markets, gain market share, and grow in ways that are really quite favorable for the company here and helping us with our guidance in 2017.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay. Thank you. And I think this will be the balance of our call here today. I appreciate everybody's questions. I want to thank everybody for joining us. Robin and Ryan will be available throughout the day to take your calls, should you have any further questions. And I want to thank everybody again and wish everybody a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may all disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.
Executives:
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Joseph Ritchie - Goldman, Sachs & Co. Jeffrey Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Chase David Raso - Evercore ISI Group. Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC. Joshua Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research Group Inc. Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co. Joseph Giordano - Cowen & Co.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corp. Quarter Three 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will host a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Now I will hand the floor over to Jon Marten, Chief Financial Officer. Sir you have the floor.
Jon P. Marten:
Good morning, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's third quarter FY 2016 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website at phstock.com for one-year following today's call. On slide number two, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. Today's call agenda appears on slide number three, to begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the third quarter of fiscal year 2016. Following Tom's comments, I will provide a review of the company's third quarter FY 2016 performance together with the revised guidance for FY 2016. Tom will provide a few summary comments and then we'll open the call for a Q&A. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to slide number four.
Thomas L. Williams:
Thanks Jon, good morning and welcome everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation. So today we are going to cover four key topics with you. First, I'll summarize the third quarter results. Second, some commentary on key market trends, give an update on the revised full-year guidance and finally I'll highlight some of the progress we're making on the key initiatives under New Win Strategy. So beginning with the third quarter results, sales declined 10.6% as the effects of the strong dollar negatively impacted us by 1.5% and organic sales declined approximately by 9.4%. Total order rates for the third quarter declined 6% compared with the same quarter last year. This is a sequential improvement from the second quarter. Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.37 or $1.51 adjusted for business realignment, which was ahead of our expectations. Operating cash flow year-to-date includes a $200 million discretionary contribution to the U.S. pension plan. Excluding the contribution year-to-date, operating cash to sales was 10.5%. During the second quarter, we repurchased $50 million in shares, bringing our year-to-date total to $450 million. We have now repurchased $1.8 billion in shares since October 2014. However, the most impressive accomplishment of the third quarter was our margin performance. I’m very pleased to be delivered total segment operating margins of 13.8% or 14.7% on adjusted basis. This represents a 30 basis points improvement year-over-year in adjusted margins which is a significant accomplishment given the difficult economic conditions we are facing. During the third quarter, we delivered decrementals margin return on sales of 17% or 11.8% adjusted for business realignment expenses. This demonstrates excellent performance by our team. This quarter remarks the 5th consecutive quarter with decrementals MROS of less than 30%, this is both on a reported and on adjusted basis. Year-to-date we have also held SG&A flat at 12.1% of the sales despite of $1.2 billion drop in sales, another significant accomplishment by our team. Our performance during such a sustained period of lower sales and order rates is unprecedented. It demonstrates Parker’s ability to create a more adaptable cost structure and deliver less difficult financial performance. So now a few brief comments on key end-markets, so reflecting on the order rates over the past year, we are encouraged with a point of moderating with the decline. More specifically from Q2 to Q3, we saw number of end-markets moved from what we would classify as accelerating decline to decelerating decline, which is a good sign. We will continue to monitor additional data points in the coming months to help solidify our interpretation of the direction of the macroeconomic trends, we will provide you an update in our August call. As usual we will provide more details on our specific end-market during the Q&A portion of this call. Switching to the outlook. For fiscal year 2016, we’re increasing our guidance for earnings to the range $6.20, $6.40 per share on an adjusted basis, which resulted in earnings midpoint of $6.30 per share. Adjusted guidance represents $0.20 increase from our previous estimate at the midpoint, increase can be attributed third quarter - and incremental savings we’re now seeing from the realignment actions we’ve taken year-to-date. We also now anticipate higher business realignment expenses, which for the full-year will go from a $100 million to $120 million or $0.63 per share. As we move deeper into the New Win Strategy initiatives our global teams have identified additional near-term actions that will generate attractive front on investment. These actions will position us well for future growth and profitability. Now let me give you some highlights from the New Win Strategy, we continue to make meaningful progress with our one strategy initiatives to increase team member engagement, deliver premier customer experience and drive over all growth and financial performance. Let me take a moment to update you on progress in a couple of select areas. Starting with safety, we’ve a 29% reduction in reportable injuries comparing to the third quarter of fiscal 2016 with the same period a year-ago on our rolling 12-month basis. This reflects safety engagement across the organization and the progress of our safety focused high performance teams. Our goal is to reach zero accidents, the significance for our shareholders is that safe operations are productive operations, which translate to excellent financial results. Our simplification initiative is gaining tremendous momentum throughout the organization. The focus is on four key areas, revenue complexity, organization structure and process, division consolidations and bureaucracy. It’s a strategic revenue of our over head but also strategy review of our organization and process to improve our customers experience with Parker and also to only drive growth. I’ll give you few examples with that. Our division consolidations have yielded cost savings and will generate technology and products introduced for future growth. Our sales force organization we designed is providing more effective alignment between our customers, distributors and divisions. An another example, normally at this time of the year, we’re working through an extensive annual planning process. This year, we greatly simplified that process and dramatically reduced the amount of time that goes into developing our annual plan. what used to five-months, now takes eight-weeks. In August we will share the output from this process in the form of our guidance for fiscal year 2017. Innovation activity continues to be strong and will position us well when the macro conditions stabilize, I’ll give you a three examples on innovation front. Several years-ago, we commercialized a series of thermally conductive sensible gels to help cool delicate electronic components and mobile devices and automotive applications, such as closed room avoidance. That product series continues to do well for us today in these fast growing markets. During the third quarter, we were particularly pleased to receive the FDA approval of our groundbreaking exoskeleton technology Indego. Indego was approved for clinical and personal use by individuals for spinal cord injury which allows them to walk again. With approvals now in the U.S. and Europe, we’re positioned for a full commercial launch of Indego. Remarkably, we went from an idea to launch in less than three-years an already generate initial sales in FY 2016. Plan for launch next year is a C&G fuel regulator modular, which optimizes fuel emissions for class five to eight trucks. This module is a one-piece design that increases multiple products into a central compact system. We’re optimistic about the commercial viability of this important product. These examples showcases just some of the highlights from the past, present and future innovations that creates vitality and growth from new products and technologies. So in summary, by executing the New Win Strategy we are confident we’ll achieve our key financial objective by end of fiscal 2020, which includes targeted sales growth of a 150 basis points higher and the rate of global industrial production. We’re also targeting [17%] (Ph) segment operating margins and progress total towards these goals is expected to drive in compound annual growth rate in earnings per share of 8% over this five-year period. I am very pleased at how far we have come in such a short period of time and continue to be excited about the opportunities we have for the future as we strive to make Parker top cortile performing company as compared to our proxy peers. So for now, I’ll hand things back to Jon to review more details on the quarter.
Jon P. Marten:
Thanks Tom and at this time please refer to slide number five, I’ll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $151 versus $2.06 for the same quarter and year-ago. This excludes business realignment expenses of $0.14 and comparison $0.04 for the same quarter last year. On the slide number six, you will find a significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $2.60 for the third quarter FY 2015 to a $51 for the third quarter of this year. Increases to adjusted per share income include the impact of fewer shares outstanding equating to an increase of $0.05 per share and lower corporate G&A and interest equating to $0.04 due to reduction of long-term incentive accruals and our simplification efforts. Reductions to adjusted per share income include other expense that total $0.33 per share as compared to the prior year in which last year sizeable one-time favorable currency adjustments were recognized lower adjustment segment operating income of $0.21 per share due to the impact of the weakened end-market and $0.10 from increase effective tax rate driven by various discrete items booked in the quarter. Moving to slide number seven, with a review of the total company sales and segment operating margin for the third quarter. Total company organic sales in the third quarter decreased by 9.4% over the same quarter last year, there was a 3% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions. Currency impact as a percentage of sales was relatively in line with our guidance equating to a negative impact of reported sales of 1.5% in the quarter. Total company’s segment operating margins for the third quarter adjusted for realignment costs incurred in the quarter was 14.7% versus 14.4% for the same quarter last year. We are especially pleased with this performance given the end-market softness. Realignment costs incurred in the quarter were $25 million versus $8 million last year. As forecasted previously, the lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $417 million versus $456 million last year reflects the impact of a reduced volume and the unfavorable mix from the weakening of industrial end-markets. Moving to slide number eight, I’ll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the third quarter, North American organic sales decreased by 12.7% as compared to the same quarter last year. There was a modest impact from acquisitions and a negative impact in currency of 0.8% in the quarter. Operating margin for the third quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was an impressive 16.9% of sales versus 16.4% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred totaled $9 million as compared to $1 million in prior year. Adjusted operating income was $211 million as compared to $236 million driven by reduced volume as a result of the weakening in our key end-markets. On slide number nine, I’ll continue with the Diversified Industrial segment on this slide. Organic sales for the third quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 8.7%, currency negative impacted sales by 3.1%. Operating margin for the third quarter, adjusted for realignment costs was 11.9% of sales versus 12.7% in the prior year. Realignment expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $16 million as compared to $7 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $121 million as compared to $146 million, which reflects the impact of weaker end-markets. I’ll now move to slide number 10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues decreased 2% for the quarter. Currency impact was negligible, sales for the period was impacted by some softness in helicopter and business jets. Operating margin for the third quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 15.1% of sales versus 12.9% in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $85 million as compared to $74 million last year reflecting a combination of higher aftermarket sales volume mix, reduced development costs as a percent of sales and implementation of the New Win Strategy. Moving to slide number 11 with the detail of orders changes by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represented trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders were a negative 6% for the quarter-end, reflecting less negative quarter rates and Industrial segments and Aerospace segment or orders turning positive. Diversified Industrial North American orders improved to negative 9%. Diversified Industrial International orders improved to negative 6% for the quarter. Aerospace Systems orders improved to a positive 1% for the quarter. Now turning to slide number 12 on cash flow. Cash flow from operating activities year-to-date was $681 million, when adjusted for the $200 million discretionary pension contribution made in the first quarter, cash from operating activities was $81 million or 10.5% of sales. This compares to 8.3% of sales for the same period last year. In addition to the pension contribution discussed earlier, the significant uses of cash year-to-date were $707 million returned to our shareholders via share repurchases of dividends, $68 million for acquisitions closed during Q1. No acquisitions were announced in the Q3, $111 million for CapEx equating to 1.3% of sales year-to-date. The revised full-year earnings guidance for FY 2016 is outlined on slide number 13. Guidance is being provided on in adjusted basis. Segment operating margins and earnings per share excluded expected business realignment charges or approximately $120 million, the balance of which are forecasted to be incurred in Q4 of FY 2016. Total sales are expected to be in the range of negative 11.9 to negative 9.9 or negative 10.9 at the midpoint as compared to last year. Adjusted organic growth as in midpoint is negative 8.2. Currency in the guidance negatively impacted sales by three, the majority of which is attributed to the industrial international segment. We have calculated the impact of currency the stock range as of March 31, 2016. And we have held those rates steady as we estimate the result in year-over-year impact for the balance of 2016. For total Parker, adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 14.7% and 14.9% or 14.8% at the midpoint, this compares to 14.9% for FY 2015 on an adjusted basis. As Tom mentioned, we are very pleased to be guiding to those level of adjusted segment operating margins, given the magnitude of the end-market declines. The guidance for below the line items, which includes corporate admin, interest and other is $478 million for the year at the midpoint. The full-year tax rate is projected at approximately 28%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in our full-year guidance is $137 million. And for the full-year, guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis has been increased to $6.20 to $6.40 or $6.30 at the midpoint. The guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $120 million to be incurred in FY 2016. Savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected in the amount of $85 million, which are reflected in the segment operating margins. Slide number 14, you will find the reconciliation of the major components of the revised FY 2016 as reported EPS guidance of $5.67 per share at the midpoint from the prior FY 2016 EPS of $5.60 per share. Increases includes $0.18 in segment operating income as a result of simplification efforts, an increased savings from restructuring actions taken to-date and $0.08 from reduced corporate G&A, interest and share count. The company's decision to increase full-year realignment cost to $120 million results in an additional expense of $0.13 per share. Income taxes and other expense projected comprise additional expense of $0.06, reflecting discrete items in current projections. On slide number 15, you will find a reconciliation of the major components of the revised FY 2016 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.30 per share at the midpoint from prior FY 2016 EPS of $6.10. As previously detailed, increases included $0.18 and segment operating income and $0.08 from reduce corporate G&A, interest and share count. This is partially offset by $0.06 increased in other expense and taxes. Please remember that the forecast excludes any future acquisitions, divestitures that might be closed during FY 2016. For consistency purposes, we ask that you exclude restructuring expenses from your published estimates. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I'll turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Thomas L. Williams:
Thanks Jon. I’m very encouraged by the response of our Parker team members around the world. We are well in the challenges of our end-markets and delivering impressive performance. Our team is embracing changes design to improve Parker and positions for the future under the framework of the New Win Strategy. Together we are building a stronger and better Parker, I look forward to sharing more with you on our progress. And at this time, we are going to take questions. So Brian, if you could just get us started.
Operator:
My pleasure [Operator Instruction] We ask an interest of time that you please limit yourself to one preliminary question and one follow-up [Operator Instruction] Our first question is from the line of Jamie Cook of Credit Suisse. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jamie Cook:
Good morning. I guess a couple questions. One, Tom, I guess everyone is interested in sort of the order sales trends that you saw throughout the first quarter and potentially what you are seeing in the month of April. Are there any markets that you sort of see bottoming or perhaps even seeing some green shoots without being too optimistic? And then I guess just my second question to you is, with one quarter left - in the year, you upped your restructuring again. As we are thinking about 2017, do we think we've done enough restructuring given your view on the markets that we just have to execute on what's already out there, or could there be potential for more as we think about 2017? Thanks.
Thomas L. Williams:
Okay Jamie this is Tom. So I’ll start first with order trends. So orders during the quarter sequentially got better as we saw January going through March, and obviously what we saw in April is consistent with the guidance that we gave you. As far as the markets go, I finish all my comment and will let Lee give you some deeper color, but I made the comment about that we saw a number of markets move from accelerating declined to decelerating declined. So I think the theme of what we are seeing is this moderation of decline and the movers from accelerating to decelerating have really lead to charge or distribution general industrial ag, mining and similar account and you asked for some of a positive markets. The positive markets are refrigeration and air conditioning, rail, turf, aerospace, commercial MRO and powergen. and now I'll let Lee go into more details in a minute on all the market color. On the restructuring we moved to from a $100 million and $120 million and just to clear the year for people listening on the phone, this isn’t because we saw some market change or worsening of orders that we felt we need to do this. It really was we saw more opportunities as we started unpeel the New Win Strategy being implemented within the company, there were just more opportunities that our team members around the world identified in traditional restructuring and simplification and et cetera, that we thought would be a very good to take now and that will put us in good position in FY 2017. But you asked about 2017, now in my opening comments I talked about we moved this to an eight-week process, we are only three-weeks into it, so I won't comment about 2017, as you might imagine commenting about 2017 in April is harder than commenting about it in August. However, I will you give some color on the restructuring. So restructuring is year I would call a high watermark, $120 million and if you looked at us traditionally before kind of the restructuring we've done over the last several years, we are more in that $20 million $25 million range. Now well the restructuring is not finalized, what we think next year and we are only about half way through our reviews, I think we are looking at something that’s in between the traditional $20 million to $25 million and $120 million that we did this year. So that’s my take in your comments Jamie, if it’s okay, I'll let Lee take over with giving you a lot more color on the markets which I'm sure other people on the phone have questions as well.
Jamie Cook:
Okay great.
Lee C. Banks:
Okay, hi Jamie. So as Tom talked about sequentially total Parker organic growth moved to a better direction during the quarter. if you look at it, it was widely a result of North America followed by EMEA. I’m going to walk you through the different regions and try and give you as much color as I can. So starting with North America industrial distribution, total North American distribution still is annualizing at a high single-digit year-over-year decline for FY 2016. Now this is mostly as we've talked about in past impacted by oil and gas, so we continue to see tightening of CapEx and OpEx budgets which has really been a drag for distribution, its most aligned with those end-markets. If you get away from that we continue to see real positive growth out of distribution in the Great Lakes. Mid West areas and cover auto plants, Tier-1 machines all these et cetera. So it’s certainly a couple of different tails depending to the story depending on where you are in the country. Tom mentioned air conditioning and refrigeration that’s really a bright spot for us, we continue to experience really strong residential air conditioning growth much of that growth can be attributed to some product introduction we've done, it's really given us a strong market participation. Our commercial air conditioning refrigeration businesses that’s up low single-digits and our aftermarket business organically with the market with some new product introductions that continues to be real strong. The story around oil and gas, I guess major OEMs really continue to indicating no significant improvement until the end of calendar 2016 early 2017 and this is really massive and I'm sure you have covered this restructuring plans taking place. It looks like everybody is trying to restructure and look to be profitable around $40 per barrel. And we looked at some of those different segments, the consensus appears that really the offshore rig markets for new builds could take years to recover. I think the land base will come back sooner, but on the positive side you have heard us talk about this, we continue increase demand for some of our aftermarket service capability such as our Parker Tracking System that enables asset integrity management of field and we've had good traction with that. On agriculture, we expect sales of farm equipment down industry wide and our demand continues to be consistent with that. By focusing on energy, we continue to increase our market position with large frame turbine OEMs and this has been a plus because there continues to be a strong conversion of power plants from coal to natural gas in the U.S. so it has allowed us to participate in that. And we did see benefits from our wind and solar business, it did get a boos with the production tax credits and investment tax grants that were extended so that was a positive for us in the quarter. Turning to heavy truck in North America, current forecast, ACT forecast is now 275,000 units, which is really up from the November forecast and our North America transportation business is down high single-digits better than industry build rate declines and I would attribute this to some new product introduction. And really our aftermarket exposures there kind of softens some of that down turn. On the mobile markets, I think a real positive Tom mentioned turf, its North American central market but continues to be a real strong highlight for us and then with all the major construction equipment that continues to experience top-line decline. But there does seem to be a lot of industry commentary about finding a bottom here, which I'll comment more later on. And the in plant automotive, really this is a key North American distribution that covers that and we're up Q3 versus prior and continue to do well there. Just touching on Europe distribution trends are consistent with really last quarter distribution side, the industrial MRO automotive markets continue to be flat to slightly positive and then anything tied to oil and gas as I mentioned before continues to be weak. I think one of the bright spots for us really contained in our Win Strategy initiatives is distribution is up in emerging markets Eastern Europe, Africa. These are high single-digits, combination of organic growth within the region, but cost effective increased market participation by us. Oil and gas demand across all those related markets continue to contract. We've talked about North Sea investment and that really still is a bit of a standstill, but then again this is another area where we've had some really decent experience with our aftermarket integrity management initiatives offsetting some of the contraction that we see at a first fit level. And then on Ag, we have seen sequential growth quarter-to-quarter, still flat year-over-year, but the production we're seeing now I would call an increase in normal seasonality. On heavy truck stronger demand continues in the quarter and this is really following a strong fiscal Q2, we saw demand sequentially from Q2 to Q3. And mobile demand is stabilized at current activity level. We did have a large exhibitive at the recent [indiscernible] show and I think all of us were encouraged by one of the attendance, but also the favorable settlement taking place at the show. So may it gives us some freedom to do somewhat positive going forward. Turning to Asia now, really distribution then is flat to moderately down year-over-year, China is the biggest issue, it’s the most sluggish it’s down high single-digits year-over-year. If I take that out, we’re up across the region, I give this a lot of credit to what our guys are doing on expansion and we've talked to you about such as [indiscernible] in some of these developing markets. So we continue to expand there. Energy across the region, we still seeing increased activity and renewable which wind solar and hydro and traditional thermal energy, coal, gas and nuclear store taking the major share and we are participating in those. We always talked about, Tom mentioned that is an accelerating growth, it continues to be great story, we've commented for some time on the strengths of this in market in China. And China has really become a preferred builder, we’ve recently signed high speed rail contracts with Laos, Thailand and Indonesia and we continue to have strong exposure to build rails. And then on mobile construction, we have seen some modest growth in China and I have heard some industry comments regarding that. I will tell you that for the most part, the OEM inventory is still extremely high, so I think it will take some time for us to see that but our business has stabilized in current levels. And then lastly, just touching on Latin America, I think it’s really dominative by the Brazil story, our construction equipment, Ag markets, etcetera is still very soft. But there is decent activity if you get outside Brazil, but the whole story in Latin America is really dwarfed by Brazil. So taking all together total Parker organic growth sequentially moved in a better direction, largely as resulted of I mentioned North America and EMEA. And I think moderately declining and the words that keep coming to our minds to describe what we’re seeing on a year-over-year basis.
Jamie Cook:
Okay, thank you. I’ll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open please go ahead.
Joseph Ritchie:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. I guess my first question is around the restructuring actions. I know it's hard to comment much at this point on 2017, but it seems like the payback that you got on these actions, the additional realignment actions, is really good. I guess my question is how are you thinking about - when you are thinking about the magnitude of restructuring for next year, how are you thinking about the potential payback and is it going to be mostly headcount-related?
Thomas L. Williams:
Jo, this is Tom. So, on the restructuring I would just say in general, we’re really pleased with our team, team around the world. The execution has been timely, we've been thoughtful on how we've done it and I'm just very proud of how the team has performed on the restructuring and that’s been a big part of the timeliness and that has been a big part of what's helped our margins perform this year. As far as next year, we’re going through, I still think my characterization would be somewhere between the $120 million to $120 million to $125 million, is probably a good indicator. I still think that for the most part as restructuring is a pretty good payback from a time period standpoint, usually the 12-month indicator obviously it’s in a more traditional or international orientated type of restructuring, will take longer, probably 18-month to 24-months. But in general it would still be aimed at the more strategic restructuring that we've been talking about which is at the forehead of the company, but we’ll continue to look at as we just traditionally have the footprint optimization as it makes sense.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay. And then maybe as a follow-up, Tom, your comments earlier about going from an accelerating to a decelerating decline, I'm just curious within that context what's going on with the pricing environment? Are you seeing any pressure across the portfolio today? Have you started to see stabilization there as well, just curious? Any color there would be helpful.
Lee C. Banks:
Joe this is Lee, I’ll just give you some comments on that. So I would characterize price realization is very tough candidly. We did raise prices to distribution in this past January, its mostly around non-core and late lifecycle type of products, but we did realize price there. But one thing we do track and you’ve heard us talk about this in the past, we have an SPI Index which tracks year-over-year pricing by partner. And we have a PPI which tracks our input costs. And we do have a positive spread here and we look at continuously. So I would say if you had to characterizes overall, it’s pretty much flat.
Joseph Ritchie:
And Lee, is that spread mostly being driven by the denominator? Is it just because the cost environment has remained favorable and could that potentially reverse itself as we progress through the year??
Lee C. Banks:
I would say top-line, the SPI number is flat, as I talked about, but the PPI is giving us the spread, yes.
Joseph Ritchie:
Okay, great. Thanks guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond with KeyBanc. Your line is now open.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Thomas L. Williams:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Just on the buyback, it looks like it slowed here a little bit and M&A has kind of been weak. I just thought as we come on the deadline for this $2 billion to $3 billion, we would be tracking more towards the high end. Maybe just update us on how you are thinking about buyback?
Thomas L. Williams:
Jeff, this is Tom. So in the buyback, we continue to look at that on a dynamic basis, looking at what makes the most sense for our shareholders and obviously, we’ll update you every quarter. But some things to just keep in mind from consideration. When you look at our cash that’s on the balance sheet 99% of that is permanently invested overseas. It’s important to us to maintain A rating, so that’s a factor that we consider. And then when we rolled out $2 billion to $3 million initiatives that was in October 2014, we were a $13 billion company then and now we were $11.3 billion. So a number of things have changed. Our cash flow as a percent of sales continues to do very well at 10.5%. We’re going to continue to deploy cash as efficiently as we can, we look at the best ways to deploy it and what gives the long-term value creation to our shareholders. On the acquisition side, the pipeline is active, but it’s always hard to predict the output there, it tends to be lumpy. But I would say valuations are still challenging at this point with pricing probably starting to moderate a little bit, but we’re disciplined buyers and we buy things that are in spaces that we understand. And we understand the growth rates, so we’ll continue to be that way. But I think you’ll look to see us be as efficient and aggressive with our deployment of cash as we possibly can weighing all the variables to try to do the best thing we can on the long-term behalf of the shareholders.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay. That's helpful. And then it looks like the guide is mostly North America feeling a little bit better and I think you mentioned some of the restructuring. But just go into a little more detail on what is surprising you to the upside in the North America business?
Thomas L. Williams:
Well, Jeff, I think Lee probably did a pretty good job of taking you all through that, but in North America, when you look at it sequentially, almost everything was positive in North America. Some of that we get just from the calendar helping us, but in particular the part that I like is that when you look at - in case people don’t understand what I’m talking about these market phases, so you have got accelerating growth and decelerating growth and you have got accelerating decline and decelerating decline. And if I was to show you this dot map of our end-markets in these four phases and if you look at it in Q2, you could see a lot of dots in the accelerating decline. And what’s moved and I would say in particular in North America, it’s been distribution, Ag, semicon, mining, general industrial, but I think the thing we are cautious about is that I think we are getting help from comps for the most part and that at this point still too early, I think to say that there is a general market shifts. So we’re going to continue to look at that data, we need a few more months and another quarter or two to help confirm that. But in the healing process of order entry, step one is to have a decelerating or moderation of decline, so that’s the good thing we are very happy about that. And to put up the kind of numbers we are putting up in this kind of climate I think if you look at us historically is remarkable. And I’ve told a lot of people, when we get to flat, you are going to love the numbers, because flat will be the new high and then we’ll continue to grow from there.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Yes, but on the margin front, is that just greater traction on some of the restructuring, or what really drove the guidance or vision on North America margins??
Thomas L. Williams:
I’m sorry, Jeff. I thought you were talking about sales, but, yes, on margins, it was clearly the return on the restructuring and the simplification actions. We’ve seen faster return and just more effective cost savings.
Jeffrey Hammond:
Okay thanks a lot Tom.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Ann Duignan:
Good morning. Can I touch back on the share repurchases? Traditionally you have always talked about having your own internal model, which you use to determine how much shares you think you should buy back or not. With the $50 million buyback, was your model telling you that Parker shares were fairly valued in the quarter?
Thomas L. Williams:
Ann, it's Tom. It's always a good time to buy Parker shares. We just looked at - again it's fair to looking at all the opportunities and opportunities we can't share all opportunities with it. When we look at all the opportunities we thought the amount that we did was the right amount. We will continue to look at every quarter, we wave obviously dividends first, investment for organic growth. And if you look at the balance between acquisitions and share repurchase i.e. For the reasons I talked about earlier would be an indicator why we are going to be at the low end of that range because the dynamics of the world have changed once we announce that proposal. We are absolutely committed to the low end of that range, I don’t want anybody to misunderstand me, but things have changed as far as we look at to the top end of the range. The balance above that is all depending on what is the best use of cash for our shareholders.
Ann Duignan:
Right. That's very helpful clarification. And then my follow-up is back to some of the comments you made about restructuring the sales force. We get nervous when we hear other companies talking about restructuring the sales force. It doesn't always work out very well. Could you just give us a little bit more detail on what you are doing there and how comfortable you feel about the progress you are making?
Thomas L. Williams:
Yes Ann, this is Tom again. We are very, very happy with what we are doing there. I can understand your reservations, but this was done with a lot of thought and here they change, so our groups are organized with exception Aerospace organized around technology and products. And it's easier alignment for our division that they can find the people that own those income products and technologies. So in Europe as an example, we went from a sales force that was maybe heavily dominated on alignment at the markets to being more products centric was still not giving at the markets having that they have lesser concentration or more concentration on technologies and markets, so that we can have a real good technology discussion with our customers. The other part we did to help simplify interface with the global OEMs with our regional OEMs is in Europe as we now have a 10 Europe OEM teams, which is very similar to what we had in North America, which had someone to access. So we had that two, because it didn’t make sense to be calling on OEMs country-by-country that span the entire Europe. So that’s been in place, in probably six-months to nine-months and we are very incurred with the kind of market share actions that we are seeing coming out of that from that team. And then just in Japan that was the other example that comes in my mind when I made that comment. In Japan if you look at us historically, we had a very fragmented sales force, we now have a sales force that is all aligned that is kind of because of the combination of acquisitions that we had in joint ventures years-ago. Now we have a one Japan sales force with a much better alignment on the operating side and we are seeing the results that Japan is doing very well for us. So the organization changes to give you comfort are showing in the numbers and in the market concentrations, so we go account-by-account in various regions.
Ann Duignan:
Okay. Thank you so much. I will leave it there and get back in line. Appreciate it.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
David Raso:
Apologies in advance. I've been hopping between a few calls. But quite simply, looking at the rate of businesses that you have right now and their various growth rates and not thinking of any change, but incorporating seasonality, when would you expect your organic sales to be back to flat?
Thomas L. Williams:
Dave it's Tom again. So that is of course the question everybody would like to know and at this point it's difficult for me to predict. And I won't try to predict that I mean at this point our guidance for the fourth quarter is a minus seven organically, so that’s was a improvement from the minus 9.4 we had in Q3. So that’s the first good sign and like I said in these market phase is when we look at all the markets, we went from a concentration in accelerating decline to now more than move decelerating decline. We would hope to keep moving kind of clockwise around these phases and start to moving to some kind of growth. But I think it's too early to - honestly we haven’t given indicator of that we would tell you when. Few more data points, couple more months and couple more quarters obviously we are going to be in much better position to tell you, but I would say this with the first step in the hilling.
David Raso:
Okay. That's fine. Just wanted to get your perspective on that. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow. Your line is now open, please ahead.
Eli Lustgarten:
Good morning, everyone. Can we talk a little bit about where inventory levels are both in the distribution sense and the OEM the best you can [indiscernible]. Are we really passed all the inventory organization, or is there still some going on? And with the pricing, you raised prices at distribution, but we keep hearing distribution people are having trouble passing anything on. Are they taking the price increase and absorbing it, or are they able to pass it through?
Lee C. Banks:
Eli it’s Lee. I was expecting this inventory destocking, so I researched this 10 times before this call. So here is the consensus when I checked this not only from our guys and then I just go out and cal our contacts. If you are involved in oil and gas and you had a lot of OEM exposure, you are still sitting on a lot of inventory. If you get away from that inventory is pretty much normalized at this point in time. I think some of the guys may have gotten hit a little bit by some side effects from oil and gas, but that’s fairly normalized. I would say on OEM inventory where I still see this kind of construction equipment, mining markets especially Asia comes to mind. If you tour some of the equipment yards, I mean there is just excavators and wheel loaders that go on for miles so. But our North American distribution, I'm most comfortable that outside of oil and gas, it’s not a big issue. And then your second question on pricing, I can’t really comment on that. What we did there was really non-core, so I can’t really comment too much on that. I have not had any feedback that it’s been a big issue. If anything, it’s been positive with our [indiscernible].
Eli Lustgarten:
Alright. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Buckingham. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Hi. Good morning guys.
Unidentified Company Representative:
Good morning, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Just maybe to ask Raso's question a little differently. On the orders front, you guys can obviously see the comp getting easier there, orders quarterly down a little bit more than maybe the comp was, got easier this quarter. Is there a potential for orders to get back to flat in June, understanding that it may be a while longer before sales quite get there?
Jon P. Marten:
Josh, Jon here just to be responsive to your question. Of course, we are not calling for that in our guidance going forward. When you take a look at the orders overall for Parker, we are just looking at - we were at this time last year down four and we were down nine, down 11, down 12, now we are down six. So the question is what is the rate of the incline in the reduction of the orders for the company. We don’t have that forecasted or we’re going to be looking at that very closely, it’s going to be fully aligned with the end market progress that Lee and Tom have been making. And we are gaining market share, we are launching the end markets. And as Tom said, I think our best characterization is that it’s a moderately decline and obviously moderating. But we’ll coming out with that answer when we do our guidance in August. But right now in April, it’s a little too early to give you a very detailed answer to that.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Okay. And then just to revisit the buyback discussion. It sounded like maybe there were some mitigating factors in the quarter that stayed your hand, but is there a period of time that passes when some of those other opportunities go away or aren't actionable, or are actionable and you guys are left with buyback, or is this something that is a little bit more structural in nature? Just trying to get the overall strategy there maybe versus like a one-quarter event.
Thomas L. Williams:
Yes. Well, the overall strategy hasn’t change. We want to be great generators of cash and great deployers of cash. And I think the generators of cash, the Win Strategy continue to work that aggressively with the changes that we’ve made we are 10.5% now. We like being that and we would like to work that even higher. And we are going to do that through continue to grow our operating earnings and continue to working capital down. On the deployment, it’s the same priorities that I’ve mentioned. It’s just trying to make the businesses and I wouldn’t read one thing to aggressively into one quarter on this. The buyback announcement is going to expire and my preferences to tell you every quarter what we are doing as appose to making some big announcements what we are going to do from the period going forward. There are some natural considerations given the amount of cash that’s permanently invested overseas, our desire to keep an A rating and the fact this program was rolled out two-years ago, and a lot has changed two-years, or approximately two-years ago. But we like all those avenues and we want to be as deploying cash as we are great at generating the cash, and I would look for us to do that. And I can’t show you everything that we see, but we’ll continue to do the best we can on behalf of the shareholders for what we think is best long-term.
Joshua Pokrzywinski:
Alright. Thanks again.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Andrew Casey:
Thanks. Good morning, everybody. You mentioned mining as showing decelerating declines. Can you help us on whether that was related to shipments into OEMs or an MRO comment?
Thomas L. Williams:
I think on the mining, what we saw in generals that probably a little bit more help on the, I would say it would be both. OEM in general comparing Q2 to Q3 got a little bit better distribution got a little better as well, but for the most part it’s probably more the comps that are helping us at this point. We’re not ready to declare a victory in any of these areas, get a couple of more quarters and we see this move then I think we already say it’s more than markets, at this point it’s probably the comps helping us more than anything.
Andrew Casey:
Okay thank you Tom and then if you cover this, I missed it I apologize on the incremental $85 million benefit you expect during this year from restructuring in simplification, how much have you realized year to data and if you can give it in the quarter?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes Andy of the $85 million that is we are expecting $40 million of that in our Q4 so $65 million for the second half, $85 million for the year of the second half $42 million in Q4.
Andrew Casey:
Okay and then thank you Jon and that should that step up, kind of continue into the next fiscal year or would you expect with the additional restructuring that you kind alluded to it have even more it’s step up kind of back half loaded next year?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes there is no doubt that the savings that we’re getting from this year we’re carefully carry through for a period of time into next year and it’s too early for me to give you too much color on the numbers that the Tom was referring to early in his comments about the restructuring and the savings that we get for next year. So I don’t want to give you an answer to that would be misleading, I just wanted to kind of tell you that clearly we are not going to taking a step back for saving that we’re getting on, its permanent that is going to be a very helpful tailwind for us for next year.
Andrew Casey:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Jon P. Marten:
Thank you Andy.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from lines of Nathan Jones of Stifel. Your line is now open. please go ahead.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone. Can we just clarify on that last point, $40 million restructuring savings in 4Q. So is $160 million annually the new run rate that you are looking at from the $120 million, or should it be a little bit higher than that?
Jon P. Marten:
I do not think it’s going be higher than that. It’s not going to be $40 million for quarter going forward here Nathan. So I want to research that one further here but that’s just the way that we calculate the savings here based on the restructuring that we’ve done year-to-date and that would - be most of the restructuring of course that we’re doing in Q4 the actual restructuring is going to give us savings next year.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. If I could get into North American margins from a different angle here, on a year-over-year basis for the quarter you just reported, organically, you lost about $200 million of revenue. All else equal, I would think the decrementals on that should be somewhere in the vicinity of 25%. So you started about $50 million in the hole on operating income and you are up about $25 million. So from other avenues, you gained about $75 million of operating income. Could you bucket the main places that that came from, where the savings came from, what is improved execution, what is productivity, those kinds of things?
Jon P. Marten:
Well certainly I can’t detail it down to you for dollar, but as Tom and Lee had talked about the productivity that we’re saying from the New Win Strategy is a significant portion of that number Nathan and as we apply the techniques that we've known for years and the ones that we’re really focusing on here with the New Win Strategy, we’re seeing margins in a declining environment that we’ve never seen before. And so what gratified by that as significant portion is just additional incremental productivity that’s not necessarily you know to take the place of the savings that I’ve been taking about when we do those simplification efforts or the restructuring efforts that we've done in the company. So I can’t detail it down to you, dollar-by-dollar, but what is happening with the margins and the reason why our decrementals are so impressive is because of the dedication of our employees to rebuild our efforts on productivity in the company and our ability to get savings from the restructuring that we’ve done you know in the past year.
Nathan Jones:
Yes, they were really very impressive. Just one for Lee. Lee, you talked about mobile OEM China inventory. This is an issue we've been dealing with for probably going on five years from the overstimulation coming out of the last recession in China. Any attempt at guessing when that inventory may clear?
Lee C. Banks:
You know to be clear with you, there does seem to be some positive sentiment with some of the stimulus that the Chinese government is trying to use, but it’s way too early to tell on that.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. That's fair. Thanks very much.
Thomas L. Williams:
Brian, I see that we are at the top of the hour, so we could just take one more question, please.
Operator:
My pleasure. Our last question comes from the line of Joe Giordano with Cowen. Your line is now open.
Joseph Giordano:
Thanks for sneaking me in here. Quick on the decrementals, kind of like what Nathan hinted at, when I'm comparing North America to international and granted both are - decrementals have been great on both pieces of those businesses - but we are seeing more pronounced organic declines on a year-on-year basis in North America, but margin is actually going up, so can you walk us through what maybe the different types of initiatives going on, on the restructuring side between the two segments as to what might be driving even more pronounced decremental reductions in North America?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. Joe sure, just real quick on a top level, although we’re down higher organically and you are absolutely right, in the North America than we are in international, our decremental MROS on an adjusted basis is 13 for North America versus about 19. Now in any environment that 19 in our history, in our company is a very impressive number. But it is distinguished from North America, I believe it has something to do with the level and depth of some of the restructuring that we’re doing a little bit of the quicker payback in restructuring in North America versus internationally. But in both cases, we’re making great progress and we’re kind of - we are seeing a little bit of difference, but this historically in North America and in our industrial businesses. The best we’ve ever done in the downturn like this especially considering the magnitude of this downturn that we’re talking of a negative nine, 9.5 for the quarter and our guidance of negative seven here coming up. So the short answer is very quick actions, quick recovery, dedication on the part of our management teams both in internationally and in North America and our ability to be resilient and adaptable as a company today versus maybe in some of the prior downturns in the past periods.
Joseph Giordano:
Great. And then just last for me, in terms of scale, maybe you could put this in the appropriate context for us on the simplification efforts and removing of divisions, things like that. How many SKUs have you guys gotten rid of on a percentage basis or something just to give us a sense of how much this has really changed??
Thomas L. Williams:
Yes, this is Tom. That will be very difficult to answer. I couldn’t even hazard I could guess. But just recognize that we are working at last couple of percent of revenue. It does carry a disproportionate amount of costs and part numbers and quote activity and that’s the focus. But I couldn’t you give you a guess on that amount.
Joseph Giordano:
Alright good enough. Thanks guys.
Thomas L. Williams:
Okay.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. This is all the time we have for questions and answers today. Thank you for your participation on today’s call. You may now disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.
Executives:
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
James A. Picariello - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States)
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker-Hannifin Corp. Fiscal 2016 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. Please go ahead, sir.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thank you, Abigail, and good morning to everyone, and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's second quarter FY 2016 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website at phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number two, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website at phstock.com. On slide number three for the agenda, to begin, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the second quarter of fiscal year 2016. Following Tom's comments, I will provide a review of the company's second quarter FY 2016 performance together with the revised guidance for FY 2016. Tom will provide a few summary comments, and then we'll open the call for a Q&A session. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to slide number four.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon, and welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation today. To start, let me make a few summary comments. It continues to be a very tough environment in many of our end markets and regions. We have responded decisively to adjust to these conditions and delivered impressive margin return on sales. We have tightened control of discretionary spending, reduced employment levels across all regions in our company and implemented reduced work schedules where necessary. This is in addition to the previously announced actions we have underway to restructure our fixed costs and simplification efforts designed to streamline our operations. On both of those fronts, we made excellent progress in the second quarter. Given the current headwinds, we are very pleased with the way our teams have responded, as evidenced by the strong margin performance and our ability to control decremental margin on return on sales for the past three quarters. We expect strong decremental margin return on sales to continue through our fiscal year-end. Moving on to specifics for the second quarter, sales declined 14% as the effects of the strong dollar negatively impacted us by approximately 4% and organic sales declined 10%, reflecting end market weakness. Total order rates for the second quarter declined 12% compared with the same quarter last year. Despite this downturn, I am very pleased we delivered total segment operating margins of 12.2% or 13.5% on an adjusted basis. During the second quarter, we delivered decremental margin return on sales of 17.2% adjusted, which represents excellent performance in this current business climate. This is really a testament to the way we are fundamentally changing Parker's operating structure. In previous downturns, in which we've experienced such a significant reduction in sales volume, we would not have been able to maintain such strong margin performance. The primary drivers of our margin performance include
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Tom. And at this time, please refer to slide number five. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $1.33 versus $1.80 for the same quarter a year ago. This excludes business realignment expenses of $0.19 and compares to $0.04 for the same quarter last year. On slide number six, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.84 for the second quarter FY 2015 to $1.52 for the second quarter of this year. The impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.11 per share. Increases to adjusted per-share income include lower corporate G&A expense equating to $0.11 due to reduction in long-term incentive accruals as well as our simplification efforts, as Tom mentioned. A reduced tax rate for the quarter contributed $0.02, driven by the passage of the U.S. extenders from which the company recognized R&D credit. Reductions to adjusted per-share income include lower adjusted segment operating income of $0.39 per share due to the impact of foreign currency and the continued weakening of end market demand and increased interest and other expense that totaled $0.18 per share as compared to the prior year in which various one-time favorable adjustments were recognized. Moving to slide number seven, with a review of the total company sales and segment operating margin for the second quarter, total company organic sales in the first quarter decreased by 9.6% over the same quarter last year; there was a modest 3% contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions. Currency impact as a percentage of sales was slightly higher than plan, equating to a negative impact on reported sales of $139 million or 4.4% in the quarter. Total company segment operating margins for the second quarter adjusted for realignment costs incurred in the quarter was 13.5% versus 14% for the same quarter last year. Restructuring costs incurred in the quarter were $35 million versus $9 million last year. The lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $366 million versus $439 million last year reflects the impact of reduced volume and unfavorable mix from the continued weakening of several industrial end markets. Moving to slide number eight, I'll discuss the business segments, starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the second quarter, North American organic sales decreased by 15.2% as compared to the same quarter last year. There was a modest impact from acquisitions and a negative impact in currency of 1.3% in the quarter. Operating margin for the second quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 15% of sales versus 16.3% in the prior year. Restructuring expenses incurred totaled $20 million as compared to a nominal spend in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $174 million as compared to $227 million, driven by reduced volume as a result of softening trends in key end markets. I'll continue with the Diversified Industrial segment on slide number nine. Organic sales for the second quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 7.1%. Currency negatively impacted sales by 10%. Operating margin for the second quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 11% of sales versus 12.3% in the prior year. Restructuring expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $14 million as compared to $9 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $109 million as compared to $146 million, which reflects the impact of the foreign currencies as well as weaker end markets. I'll now move to slide number 10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues decreased nominally at 0.7% for the second quarter. Currency posed a modest negative impact of about 0.4%. Sales for the period were maintained as a result of higher aftermarket sales volume, which offset modest year-over-year declines in OEM sales. Operating margins for the second quarter, adjusted for realignment costs, was 14.8% of sales versus 12% in the prior year. Nominal realignment expenses were incurred for the period, adjusted operating income was $82 million as compared to $67 million, reflecting the favorable mix of higher aftermarket sales volume this quarter combined with reduced development costs as a percentage of sales. Moving to slide number 11, with the detail of orders changes by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders were a negative 12% for the quarter-end, reflecting the further softening of the Industrial's segments stemming from natural resource related end markets, as Tom mentioned. Diversified Industrial North American orders decreased to negative 15%. Diversified Industrial International orders decreased to negative 10% for the quarter. Aerospace Systems orders improved to a negative 11% for the quarter, which continues to be impacted by lumpy prior-year comparables. On slide number 12, we report cash flow from operations. Cash flow from operating activities year-to-date was $347 million, but when adjusted for the $200 million discretionary pension contribution made in the first quarter, cash from operating activities was 9.8% of sales. This compares to 8.4% of sales for the same period last year. In addition to the pension contribution, the significant uses of cash year-to-date were $572 million returned to our shareholders via share repurchases of $400 million and dividends of $172 million. $68 million was expended for acquisitions closed during the first quarter. No acquisitions were announced in the second quarter, and we have $75 million for CapEx equating to approximately 1.4% of sales year-to-date. Slide number 13, provides for FY 2016 guidance as outlined. Guidance is being provided on an adjusted basis. Segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges of approximately $100 million, which are forecasted to be incurred throughout FY 2016. Total sales are expected to be in the range of negative 12.6% to negative 9.3% or negative 9.9% at the midpoint as compared to the prior year. Adjusted organic growth at the midpoint is negative 7.9%. Currency in the guidance negatively impacts sales by 3.4%, which is nearly all attributable to the International Industrial segment. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of December 31, 2015, and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the balance of FY 2016. For total Parker, adjustment segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 14.4% and 14.6%. This compares to 14.9% for FY 2015 on an adjusted basis. As Tom mentioned, we are very pleased to be guiding to this level of adjusted segment operating margins, given the magnitude of the end market softness and order decline. The guidance for below-the-line items, which includes corporate admin, interest and our category other is $484 million for the year at the midpoint. Our full-year tax rate is projected at approximately 28%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full-year guidance is 137.1 million shares. For the full-year, guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis is $5.90 to $6.30, or $6.10 at the midpoint. This guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $100 million to be incurred in FY 2016. Savings from these business realignment initiatives continue to be projected in the amount of $70 million, which are reflected in the segment operating margins. Some additional key assumptions for full-year 2016 guidance are
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon. We expect the difficult environment to continue through the rest of our fiscal year. As our margins here today indicate, we are responding well. We are making meaningful progress with our restructuring initiatives, which remain on track for the year. We also continue to find opportunities to streamline operations through our simplification initiatives. I am very encouraged by the response of our partner team members. It has been just about one year since Lee and I took full responsibility for the company. It's certainly been a challenging year from a market perspective. However, our teams have not only adapted quickly to the challenges before them, but they have also embraced a new path forward for Parker, and are working hard to build a stronger and better Parker for the future under the direction of the Win Strategy. I look forward to sharing more with you on our progress throughout this year. At this time, we are ready to take questions. So, Abigail, if you would like to get us started?
Operator:
Certainly. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.
James A. Picariello - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey, guys. This is James Picariello filling in for Jeff. Just a quick question on order trends. Can you speak to maybe the pace of what you're seeing through January and how that maybe compares to, in December and November?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
This is Jon. I think, James, the pattern is consistent with what we saw during Q2. I think what we're seeing in January is consistent with what we're seeing in guidance. January is, of course – the first two weeks of January are a little bit – very difficult to judge, but I think from what we can tell so far that we're consistent with the guidance that we've got together for Q3. So, nothing really remarkable to give you an answer on there.
James A. Picariello - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay. And just to follow-up. On Aerospace, what's the visibility in terms of the mix between OE and aftermarket for the back half? Just trying to get a better understanding for the margins?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, it would be, in general, we have good visibility for the OE, and the question is always in the aftermarket. What is included in our guidance is 65% OE, 35% aftermarket. That's what we've been running consistently for the last several quarters. There's a little bit of variation periodically, but that's what we're projecting here for the balance of the year.
James A. Picariello - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Thanks, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole Deblase with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Yeah. Thanks. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Good morning, Nicole.
Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
So, I guess, I'll ask the question that someone's bound to ask is, can you guys go through your usual spiel on how the end markets progressed during the quarter?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Sure.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Nicole, this is Lee. Like I've done before in the past, I'll just kind of walk around the regions, and I'll make some comments on the end markets and I'll also comment on our distribution channel. I think one common thread that hasn't changed is the whole natural resource driven markets, ag, mining, construction equipment, oil and gas, they really by and large continue to be challenging everywhere around the world. So, starting off with North America, I think, oil and gas, in terms of distribution continues to be the big story when you think about distribution in aggregate. Having said that, if I focus on distribution that doesn't have heavy content in oil and gas, we've got positive year-over-year growth. But what's happened with oil and gas and its pervasiveness through the distribution base that is still very difficult. Looking at, really, air conditioning, refrigeration markets in North America, we've seen good North America residential air conditioning growth. This is a result, obviously, of the continued strengthening in the housing market. We've seen share gains on our behalf and then really an increase in product content which has to do with the SEER efficiency changes that incurred last year. So, we're really happy what's happening in those markets. Commercial air-conditioning and refrigeration markets really have been down year-over-year, but we are expecting growth in the balance of calendar 2016 and moving into 2017. And then lastly, if I look at the aftermarket channel in this segment, which would be different than the industrial distribution, we really remain solid year-to-date growth and this is really based on the markets but also a big part of some new products and some smart service toolkits that we've introduced into that market segment. So, very positive there. Touching back on North America oil and gas, as I mentioned in my distribution comments, we continue to see extreme weakness, double-digit declines across all of our end customers. Our customers, and I've had plenty of these conversations, are not signaling any significant improvement until the end of calendar year 2016 or early 2017. And all of them have very active restructuring plans to be profitable in today's oil prices. Turning to agriculture, we continue to see topline declines, which is consistent I think in contraction and production schedules at our major customers. So, very weak on the agricultural equipment side. On energy, wind and energy storage business for us remains robust with major customers maintaining a healthy backlog. And then the decommissioning of U.S. coal and oil-fired plants continues at a fairly brisk pace and has brought some good opportunity for us on natural gas conversion projects. On heavy-duty truck, Class 8 truck, this market has been very good and growing for us. And it was excellent, but consistent with industry forecasts, we are lowering our forecast by at least 20% from the 2015 levels going forward. On the mobile side, mobile equipment, the traditional construction equipment markets continue to be soft in North America. A highlight here has been some really nice wins in the turf business; the market is up and has been a bright spot as we continue to win new business there. And then lastly, I'll just talk about in-plant automotive, our key North American distribution that covers in-plant automotive is up year-over-year versus – Q2 versus prior. But we are expecting a slowing of CapEx spending in this area, which will have an impact on the machine tool builders who cover this area. So that's North America. In Europe, there's – well, I'll comment on Europe. So, if I talk about distribution, weak overall with Q2 down versus last year. But, I think, what I have to highlight here is if you pull out distribution that's tied to oil and gas, which is really UK, Norway – it's up year-over-year. And we have seen steady progress outside oil and gas-related distribution. We continue to see strong distribution growth in emerging regions and this is a highlight; if I look at Germany, it's ahead of last year to-date. It obviously has much less oil and gas exposure than other countries. Oil and gas for the region, investment in North Sea is almost at a standstill, looking at the UK capital investment, North Sea has dropped significantly. But, we are still finding opportunities. We've had some nice wins in point of use for clean diesel wins in some emerging markets. Really systems that eliminating high water content using our fluid conveyance and filtration technologies. Agriculture is still pretty much the same as North America, production rate is low. In energy, very excited about some recent wins for energy grid tie systems and it really is a complement to our growth and the Renewable Energy segments. Class 8 truck continues to remain strong. I was looking at this, I think this is the fifth consecutive quarter of growth in that area, so we're very positive about that. And then the mobile construction equipment markets, we actually have seen some stability there with a little bit of modest growth from Q1 to Q2. Turning to Asia, distribution as a total is flat to moderately down year-over-year. And I attribute some of that to our continued expansion, which we highlighted in our Win Strategy, of expanding our distribution points around the world. And we are doing that in the region. Oil and gas, again, is a contraction across the region. It's of note that we do see some positive success with some project builds in China and I think with a lot of these state-owned oil and gas companies, they still continue to invest, maybe at somewhat of a reduced rate. On energy, in the region, really I'm speaking to China mostly, renewable, wind, solar and hydro is growing rapidly, but traditional thermal powers, coal, gas, nuclear is still taking a major share. On rail, and this really speaks to China, we continue to be very bullish on the rail market; the Chinese government is making significant investments in this area. We've had – there is a strong focus on the export markets of high-speed rail, technology in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia and they continue to win business there. And for us, we've had a very good market participation in that segment, we continue to have strong participation across that rail market in China. On mobile construction, I can't say anything has progressed positive, since the last time we talked, there continues to be a slowing rate of growth in China's construction industry and really has been a key driving factor in the deceleration in many parts of Asia-Pacific. But our customers there continue to have really tons of idle capacity and inventory on hand. And then lastly, just talking to Latin America, it's really about Brazil. I won't go into the details. I think everybody knows, but Brazil continues to be just in very dire condition and we've seen softness in all our end markets, mining, PowerGen, oil and gas, heavy-duty truck, et cetera.
Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Lee, that was really, really helpful.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Thank you.
Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
So, just one quick follow-up, if you guys don't mind. So, on 3Q, you're guiding for $1.40 EPS at the midpoint. Typically, EPS steps up Q-on-Q. I know there were some below line puts and takes within the second quarter that are probably messing up that seasonality a bit. But I'm just curious are you guys embedding a deterioration in organic growth in 3Q compared to 2Q?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah. Let me start, Nicole. This is Tom. And I'll let Jon add on. What we did for the second half is basically we took the order entry that we saw that Lee described all the regions of the markets in the second quarter, which really, Aerospace orders got better, less negative, and Industrial North America got worse by three points and International got worse by two points. So, we took that order entry and basically translated that into the second half on an organic growth standpoint. So, our second-half organic growth from our previous guide used to be minus 5% and now it's minus 7.5%. So, we dropped it 2.5 points organically and then we have the second half coming at a minus 15% decremental MROS and that's how you get the second half EPS numbers.
Nicole Deblase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC:
Okay. That's really helpful. Thanks, Tom. I'll pass it on.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities. Your line is open.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Good morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Good morning.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Let me just follow-up on Nicole's question and just clarify. As a clarification, what was the adjusted tax rate in the second quarter? And is the big difference between the third quarter and second quarter is a little bit of seasonality upturn being offset by a 28% tax rate assumption?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, first of all, the effective tax rate for the three months in Q2 was 20.3% and that's related to the passage of the extenders. Going forward into Q3, our run rate going forward is 28%, although it's just slightly higher in our Q3 that we've built in here due to a couple of items that we will account for it in the quarter, Eli.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yeah. But that 28% versus the 20.3% is sort of like $0.12 to $0.15 or some number like that of the...
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
...difference in earnings and that almost accounts the difference between $1.52 and $1.40 that you're sort of forecasting for us.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. We are not – we are down – are down in the top line versus our old guidance in Q3 and we're also down commensurately at the operating income. But I've got, like I said, a slightly higher rate in Q3 due to some discrete items that we're accounting for in our tax rate there.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
All right. And can we talk a little bit about the profitability, the lower profitability you're forecasting for the year? Most of that, I assume, is volume. Is there any changes in pricing going on in the marketplace? Are you able to hold pricing? I mean, we assume cost will continue to trend downward just because of the lower input costs. But can you a little bit, talk a little bit about what's going on in the – I assume the drop in margins that sort of are embedded it's like drop is a little volume related and that pricing looks like it's relatively stable in the industry?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Eli, this is Lee. I think the drop is all volume-related. Pricing has been flat. We forecasted it to be flat going forward.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
And input costs are still trending downward?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
They've been favorable.
Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Yeah. All right. Thank you very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Casey with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks a lot. Good morning, everybody.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Good morning, Andy.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
A couple of questions related to your guidance. First, if we look back on Q2, can you give us the components of – there was quite a bit of difference between the initial $1.16 midpoint guidance and the reported $1.52. Understand tax was part of it. But what else changed?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I mean, I think at the SG&A level for the quarter as Tom said, we've got some positive variance in the corporate G&A of about $18 million versus the prior guide. And that's due to the simplification efforts and a couple one-time adjustments that won't repeat. We've also got as compared to the prior guide, a small settlement of about $4 million for a contractual issue that we had in the other expense. That's about $4 million and that accounts for about $0.02. And, of course, Eli talked about the tax rate. And we had guided to a higher tax rate and again we did not know that the extenders was going to pass; and so of course, that turned out to be good news for us and that gave us $0.15 versus the prior guide. And then at the operating income level, even with the reduced – projected reduced revenues, we were able to get approximately $15 million in additional operating income versus the prior guide on a slight beat in revenues.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Jon. And then on that $15 million, is that repeatable – that should carry through going forward?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. Well, that is built into our guidance going forward and we feel very good about our cost structure and with the simplification efforts and our restructuring efforts are bringing for us and built into our guidance is additional savings that we're going to get from the restructuring efforts that we've been going through here in the first half of this year and at the end of last year.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks. And then a couple detail, I guess. First, on North American Industrial, did you see inventory destocking change during the quarter, meaning did it intensify, moderate or kind of stay the same versus the prior quarter?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Andy, it's Lee. I would say it just stayed about the same. I mean at the end of the day it's really hard for us to get a gauge on that. But it certainly didn't get worse.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thanks, Lee. And then real quick on the last one, Aerospace outlook. Are you embedding the same sort of fourth-quarter bump up that you've seen in the last couple of years?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Andy, we really are not. What we've embedded in there is the continuation of the 35% MRO, 65% OEM at around the same relative profitability that we see right now. These last couple of years we've seen these one-time settlements get agreed to. And they have impacted the number so I understand completely your question. But that's not something that we would project in our guidance going forward here and so I don't really have any context for you on that point.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you very much.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Okay.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Morning. You know, Don used to talk about the 3-12 and the 12-12. I'm just curious about the end markets that are really weak. Are you seeing any kind of an inflection point looking at your 3-12s and your 12-12s? Anything bottoming out there, particularly in North America?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Ann, in all candor, I don't have my 3-12 and 12-12s in front of me. I can bring those back in the future. But, I would say the comps are going to start getting easier in some of those numbers, so it's just a matter of time. I mean obviously oil and gas, just from memory it is still decelerating. But, I would just be winging it here if I tried to give you any more context than that.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Ann, it's Tom. I think our assumption is there's really no meaningful recovery in the second half and what you see if you do the comparables it's just really easier comparables for us in the second half.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. That's helpful, I appreciate it. And then you did comment on customers talking about how weak the end markets are. Were you talking about distribution customers, particularly in oil and gas, or were you talking about OEMs? If you just could tell us what are the conversations like between OEMs versus your distribution?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
They are the same, quite frankly. Our distribution is involved with MRO but also with some projects, and handling it's very, very much the same. It's the same conversation.
Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC:
Okay. I'll leave it there and let somebody else take it over. Thanks.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning. I guess a couple questions. One, I know someone asked before on material costs and you said it was a benefit, but could you quantify what you're assuming for material costs and your guidance versus when you initially guided? Because I'm just trying to understand the decrementals that you guys are putting up, which have been much better than expected. I get that it's the simplification initiatives and restructuring as well. And then also, Tom, if you could just comment on the sustainability of sort of mid-to-high teen decremental margins. We haven't seen that before from Parker? And then my last question is just balance sheet; given the depressed markets you're seeing, are any – I know when we spoke last, you said valuations on acquisitions were still quite elevated. Has there been any change in the market? Thank you.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, Jamie. This is Tom. So, I'll start with the material costs side. I would say compared to our previous guidance, we're seeing a consistent gap between pricing and the material side, that our ability to maintain the decrementals is driven by the simplification and the restructuring actions. And remember that the bulk of our savings is in the second half, so that is going to help carry us. And we feel good about this fiscal year, I'm not going to go beyond this fiscal year in trying to tell you what the margin return on sales are going to be. But for this fiscal year, we feel very good about sustainability. We've done it three quarters in a row, and I think for everybody on the phone to help remind everybody, the way we achieved that is it was prior year restructuring that we did; all of the teams moved out very rapidly to get on top of the market adjustment. Then we launched the simplification plan which really was more strategic restructuring, in addition to the footprint restructuring we were doing that enabled us to keep these very nice basically half of what we historically have done. And as a bit of a history lesson, if you go back to the 2001 reduction – we were – the recession, it was a minus 60% MROS. The great recession was around minus 40% and here we are in that minus 15% to minus 20% range on an adjusted basis and low-20%s even reported all in. So, I think it's sustainable and that's what we have in the plan for the next two quarters. On the balance sheet, the acquisitions – the pipeline is active, but valuations are still high and I think what you're seeing is a delay in the reality from seller's expectations to buyers like us as far as setting a new revenue target as far as what they think for the business. That's the key valuation difference. I think everybody knows we're disciplined buyers and we buy things that are in our space, so we understand what the growth rates are. And I think the time is on our side with that. I think as time goes on and people see the new reality that they – it's maybe not going to grow what they thought it was the previous decade, but those valuations will come in more line and I think our pipeline will become more actionable at that point. So, it's lumpy, it's hard for us to predict output, but we're still working on it.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Sorry, Tom. One just quick follow-up on the simplification initiatives. Because as you look to 2017 there could be very high probability that things don't improve or that sales could decline. Based on what you're seeing with sort of the simplification initiatives, do you feel like you guys perhaps there's more there to do or you're realizing greater savings than you initially thought that again the sustainability of the decrementals could be better than what you originally thought?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Well, I think that is possible. I don't want to get above my skis for 2017. We'll talk about that in August. But, yes, I mean, what we've seen with sustainability for simplification so far is that the payback is more rapid and has a better payback than traditional restructuring. The good thing about it, and just to remind people, there is four areas we're looking at
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
All righty, thanks. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Joe.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Tom, maybe staying on the simplification and restructuring spend for a second, it looks like the first couple of quarters, the spend is coming a little bit lighter than we anticipated. And so, I guess, my question is really just around your confidence on your ability to complete the actions this year and to get the roughly $70 million in benefits that you are expecting to receive from those actions. Any color there would be great.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Joe. It's Tom. So, our restructuring year-to-date is right on the money. So, we've forecasted 60% of the $100 million and we're at $57 million. So, we're very, very close to that number. And our savings are tracking and so I am very confident we're going to deliver both the cost that we had planned, the $100 million of cost and deliver the savings. And the savings is indicative of that is the marginal return on sales. We could not be delivering these kind of returns without the actions that we've taken, simplification being one of them that's helping us.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Got it. So, yeah, maybe my numbers are off a little bit in the first half. I can follow up after the call. But, maybe one other key point is I noticed the free cash flow thus far has been pretty impressive and looks like this quarter working capital was a source of cash. I was wondering was there anything one-time or anything special – like I saw both the receivables and the inventory line down? Just curious what's driving the strong free cash flow.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Jon, here, Joe. We are very much focused on cash flow every single day here in the company here and watching as the top lines moves, what's going on there. All of our operating metrics are very good, nothing is deteriorating. We remain focused on the simplification efforts and our company is doing everything we can from a lean standpoint to improve every single process that we've got throughout the company. And we're seeing it in the cash flow statement. So, we're very proud of that.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay. Great. Thanks, guys. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones, Stifel. Your line is open.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, Tom, Jon, Lee.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Lee, in some of your comments about the end markets, you said that North American distribution was positive ex-oil and gas. I think our checks had indicated your North American distribution overall was down about 3%. Is that pretty close to right?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Total North American distribution?
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Yeah.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Yeah. It would be down single-digits year-over-year.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
So, I think that implies that the direct channel from 2Q to – I'm sorry from 1Q to 2Q saw a fairly significant decline in the comp. Can you talk about any specific end markets that might have driven that?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
I want to make sure I understand your question. You're talking about our direct customers?
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Direct or OEM, the non-distribution channel.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Nathan, it's Tom. I'll chime in. What we saw in distribution in Q2 was primarily North America took a step down, but outside of North America it held up pretty well, Europe, Asia held up pretty nicely. So, the step down in North America really was indicative of the same step down we saw OEMs, which was the natural resource markets, a little bit of a knock-on into the general industrial space that knocked both distribution and the OEMs down. But, in general, OEMs have been down about two times what distribution has been down if you were to characterize the difference.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. That helps. And then with nine months to go on the original plan for $2 billion to $3 billion of share repurchase, it looks like you're kind of gliding into more of the low end of that. Is that keeping powder dry for some expected correction in the pricing in the M&A market for you and with an eye to getting perhaps more aggressive as we go forward on M&A?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Nathan, this is Tom. Good question. I'm sure this is on top of everybody's mind. So, we feel very good about what we've done so far. We're 87% of the way through to the low end of the $2 billion to $3 billion range. And maybe if I could just give a little color to the process that we – so every quarter, we sit down and it's really a cash allocation discussion. We look at cash generation capabilities, you know what do we think we're going to generate at closed-loop model taking a look at that. Where is the cash generated? What access do we have to the cash? And also with our goal that we'd like to maintain an A-rating as we go through this for a lot of good reasons. But on the deployment side, we look at the best opportunities to yield the best long-term value for our shareholders comparing – recognizing, hey, we're going to do the dividends first. We're not going to move off of that, we're going to fund organic growth, but then we're going to look at the balance of share repurchase versus acquisitions to try to make that best decision. So, it's hard for me to give you a specific number that will land on the share repurchase, because it's really an opportunistic look weighing those various tugs and pulls every quarter as we go through that closed-loop model.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Fair enough. And if I could just go off the beaten path a little bit here, you talked about 2Q developing a comprehensive e-Business plan. And also talked a little bit more about development of the Internet of Things plan. Could you give us a little bit more color on where you are with that, how long the rollout looks to take and where the benefits come from that?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Okay, Nathan, this is Tom again. So, I'm going to start on e-Business and I'm going to be a little bit coy with you here, because I'm not going to give you the kind of color that I might normally would, because I would be giving competitively sensitive information to our competitors in trying to help them be successful. Let me just suffice it to say that what we want on the e-Business side is we want a Google like experience for our customers and for our distributors when they come to that website. And we've launched a number of things that we think will get us there, it's not going to happen overnight. We've made progress we think over the last couple of years and as we talked to our customers and distributors they see that, but we clearly recognize we're not there. So, we see this as a potential additional growth channel, leveraging the great distribution channel that we have already. And just remembering that about 60% of the relationship between a customer and a supplier nowadays happens via that website and happens before they even talk to you. So, that's why we want this to be so important, we're investing in it, we made some organizational design changes to add some resources and add leadership to that. That was the change we made in August last year. On the Internet of Things, that Connectathon, in case people are not familiar with what that is, it's basically an ideation process, where you gather ideas from around the company. And that coupled with the fact that we made that equity investment in Exosite, which gives us a software backbone to help all of the applications throughout the company, has really given us a program for ideas. So, we've taken that ideation process to Connectathon. We have narrowed it down to about 10 of what we think are the best most commercial actionable projects. And we think that has got multimillion-dollar type of look – tens of millions of dollars of revenue over the next three years. Most of that's not going to cut into probably towards the end of FY 2017 and FY 2018, it's probably going to take a year-and-a-half incubation here. We do have two good examples, and Lee highlighted one of them that the smart service kit, which is helping us in the refrigeration primarily the air-conditioning market, so if you take an air-conditioning contractor today, they have a lot of mechanical tools they have to utilize to measure pressure, humidity, temperatures and so this is a patented sensor that we have. It allows you to diagnose and troubleshoot the conditions of that air-conditioning unit much more rapid, so the value for the contractors as many more calls happens during the call, they can get a print out right on their smartphone or visual on their smartphones and print it out if they want it for the customer, so they can see what's going on with their unit. So, we launched that. We've been very pleased with the initial sales. And that's a really good example of taking a traditional market and using Internet of Things to make it even better. It makes our expansion valves and things we go in – our check valves very sticky, but then our contractors absolutely love the new toolkit. I think if you go to our website you can probably find a video of one of our contractors, a testimonial talking about it as well.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Great. That's helpful. Thanks very much.
Operator:
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with BoA. Your line is open.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, Andrew.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi. Can I just ask first just a very simple question? Did I hear it right that you highlighted automotive slowing or did I misheard that?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Andrew, I was talking about in-plant automotive, so CapEx going into the plants.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So, is that related to new platforms at OEs?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
I think there's been a – I'm not going to be that specific. But, what I've noticed is, there's been a lot of retooling activity with a lot of plants and some of that we're being told is going to start to slow down.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Got you. So, let's not count this question. But, are you guys getting any transaction benefit? I think a year-ago, you were talking about that it takes about a year to recertify some of the plants to ship stuff from Europe to the U.S. Are you doing it? Are you being able to do it? Are we seeing any benefit from this?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, Andrew, you know we are constantly trying to make sure that we're producing the right parts at the right locations and the right plants. And so we are not, from a transactional standpoint, getting hurt as bad as we would have been say this time last year in terms of the margins. So that is one piece of progress that we've been making, it is not – that's one of about 10 or 15 things that are going our way that are helping us with our margins and our decrementals. So, we don't see that getting bad. We're adjusting. It was this time last year where the euro and the Swiss franc decoupled and also when the dollar was really getting stronger. And so, we have adjusted to that where we stand right now today and that's what's built into our guidance going forward.
Andrew Burris Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And just a question on capital allocation, given where the high-yield markets are, given that PE can no longer play, given where the stock prices are, how do you guys feel about your M&A funnel?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Andrew, it's Tom again. Same comments that I mentioned earlier about acquisitions that the valuations right now are still a little bit high. I think it's a little bit of a delayed effect as the seller's expectations on revenue hasn't come down to earth yet. But, time is on our side. They will come down and we continue those discussions. And what we've seen over time is eventually we come to the terms with better revenue forecast. We haven't taken action on some deals in the past mainly because of the difference in pricing and that pricing difference is primarily geared by differences in what we thought the revenue expectation was going to be for that business.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Abigail, if I could ask you please, if we could just have one more question, I see we're getting ready to run out of time here. So, thank you.
Operator:
Certainly. Our last question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO. Your line is open.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Hi. How's it going?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Good, Joel.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
That's good. I'll make it quick. Is the run rate in your corporate G&A, is that the new level that we should be using going forward or is that a moving target that either got a benefit this quarter and is going to rise again or is it going to continue to structurally lower as we go forward?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
We're structurally going to be down slightly from our past run rate, but it was more of a couple one-time things in the corporate G&A. We're focused on about between $45 million to $48 million going forward here in the corporate G&A going forward as compared to in the mid-$50 million in Q1 and in prior years. So, this has some structural benefits from the simplification, but it would be wrong for me to not mention that there were some one-time items in Q2 for our G&A expense.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
Okay. And is there a big target on the business simplification? I think you used to have 240 divisions and now you mentioned it's down by 28. Is there any sort of a goal or is it just – it's going to end up where it naturally ought to be?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Joel, just to – it's Tom. To clarify, the number of divisions that we have operating divisions is 115. So, the 28 is in the 115. So, both Lee and I, the message we've left with the group presidents is we're looking for natural combinations that helps us just be more efficient, give us the scale that we need to better grow synergies and better cost synergies. We have some divisions that I think if we looked at it in hindsight had too much technology or product charter overlap, and it made more sense to put them together. So, it's not going to be one division. We still believe in a decentralized model. We still believe in driving that P&L ownership closest to our team members. But, I think you'll continue to see us do more in 2017 not at the rate that you saw us do in 2016.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
And is there a lot of other – this is the last one, sorry to take so long. Is there a lot of product line simplification underneath those business combinations or is that the next stage that you haven't dug into as deeply yet?
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, that's what I was referring to that revenue profile – again, it's Tom, that revenue profile complexity. That is where we're very, very early days. And I think that's where the real juice and the tank here is. And that will help us in multi-years going forward.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets (United States):
All right. Great. Thank you so much.
Operator:
Thank you. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.
Thomas L. Williams - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer:
Abigail, I made my closing remarks already. So, I think we can conclude the call.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yes, this concludes our call. Thank everybody for joining us today. Robin is going to be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. Thanks again and have a good day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
Executives:
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer
Analysts:
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker) John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc. Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co. Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Quarter One 2016 Parker-Hannifin Corp. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sue and I'll be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jon Marten, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed, sir.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Good morning and welcome to Parker-Hannifin's first quarter FY 2016 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's Investor Information website, at phstock.com, for one year following today's call. On slide two, you'll find our Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website, at phstock.com. Today's agenda appears on slide three. To begin, our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the first quarter of fiscal year 2016. Following Tom's comments, I will provide a review of the company's first quarter FY 2016 performance together with the revised guidance for FY 2016. Tom will provide a few summary comments and then we'll open the call for a Q&A session. At this time, I'll turn it over to Tom and ask you to refer to slide number four.
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon. And welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation today. I'm going to take a few minutes to review the quarter and touch briefly on some of our end markets and also provide an update on the new Win Strategy. To start, a few comments on our first quarter. It continues to be a very tough environment in many of our markets. We are experiencing the negative effects of the strong dollar and we witnessed further deterioration in key end market demand. We have continued with actions to adjust to these conditions. These actions include
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Tom. And at this time, please refer to slide number five. I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $1.52 versus $1.89 for the same quarter a year ago. This excludes business realignment expenses of $0.11 and compares to $0.04 with the same quarter last year. On slide number six, you'll find the significant components of the reconciliation from adjusted earnings per share of $1.89 for the first quarter FY 2015 to $1.52 for the first quarter of this year. The impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.13 per share. Reductions to adjusted per share income include
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Thanks, Jon. We are operating in a difficult environment, but as the first quarter demonstrates, we have responded well. I'm pleased with the progress we are making with our restructuring initiatives, which remain on track for the year. We also continue to find new opportunity to streamline operations through our simplification initiatives. What I am most encouraged by the response of our Parker team members. They are stepping up to the challenges before them and are embracing the changes we have initiated to build a stronger Parker. I am confident that we have a bright future ahead of us and I look forward to sharing with you our progress throughout this year. So at this time, we are ready to take questions. So, Sue, you could go ahead and start us off.
Operator:
Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Good morning.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
I'm wondering if we could dig in a little bit just on the change of the guidance sequentially. Obviously things sort of deteriorated through the quarter here. I think you made a comment that it kind of got worse as the quarter went along. And I'm wondering if you could just flush that out a little bit and if I am right about that. But more importantly, what really deteriorated? Do you have more energy exposure than you originally thought? It seems like the stuff that's not commodity-related has been fairly stable, but correct me if I'm wrong there. Maybe just a little bit more color on how this progressed through the quarter and what's really driving it.
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Steve. This is Tom. And I'm sure that's the key question everybody has. And I'll start off by giving you an overview of how our thought process changed and what was behind revising the guidance. I'm going to hand it over to Lee to go ahead and go through the markets in more detail. But what really changed during the quarter was order entry levels weakened more than we anticipated and September was much more worse than we had expected. And as we had mentioned in the Investor Day, those of you that were there, September is always a key month. It's really a key indicator for how the quarter is going to be. July and August are always somewhat suspect because of the levels of vacation and holidays between North America and Europe. And September is your first good indicator for the quarter and also it's a really good indicator for what the rest of the year potentially is going to look like. So September turned worse; that was the first influence. Also based on the roll-up that we've gotten from our divisions, our customers, talking to our distributors, we're not forecasting any kind of recovery in the natural resource-related markets in the second half of our year, which we originally were forecasting some kind of recovery there. So oil & gas, construction, ag, and mining are soft and actually are softer than we had expected and they're going to continue that way through the remainder of the fiscal year. We're also anticipating more softness in the emerging markets. We had anticipated China and Brazil; they were soft. They have softened worse through the course of the quarter. And then what you were referring to, Steve, about kind of the oil & gas impact, clearly oil & gas impacted North America the most. But there's clearly a knock-on effect that is felt throughout the rest of our end markets, in particular for our distributor channel which is a big part of the company. It felt the reduction in oil & gas and it has felt it across the whole board. So we've seen distribution soften quite a bit in the quarter and that's a change for us for what we think the full year is going to be. So in general, we had forecasted softening in the first half with some small lift in the second half. That was our original guidance. So now what we're saying is that the first half is going to be softer than we thought before and we don't see any kind of recovery in the second half and the second half will be soft as well. So with that kind of as a overarching summary, I'm going to let Lee go through the end markets in more detail.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Great, Tom. Thanks, Steve. So just kind of reiterating what Tom said, if you look at it, it's continued softness in some of these natural resource-driven markets and then the continued softness regionally and by country in Europe, China and Brazil. And then let's not forget about currency; it continues to be a major headwind. If we look at North America, maybe starting there, we mentioned in Q4 a slowdown in distribution. And it's clear that that slowdown continued in Q1. I would say it was largely attributed to those distributors with exposure to oil & gas, but you couldn't help but see a knock-down effect in some of other distribution with some of their order entry and business. We do continue to see destocking in the channel. Our best bet is we'll continue to see that destock through Q2. As I mentioned earlier, distribution outside of oil & gas, in some areas it's okay and in some areas it's just moderate to slightly negative. So maybe it's an effect of a strong dollar in some key markets, but it's certainly not as robust as we saw last year. And then if I look oil 7 gas, we continue to see contraction across all sectors, but specifically the upstream sectors. Offshore activity and land-based activity continue to be very soft. The last rig count numbers I saw was down 57% versus prior year, so significant reduction. And I think the one thing, even though business is soft, we're encouraged really by some of the wins with new products we've had in these industries. And we are seeing great opportunities in service businesses that we've launched and are working with some of these key customers. Agriculture, we talked about earlier, continues to be very soft. In energy, and this is really around power generation, we do continue to see positive trends there, both in traditional and renewable. In the traditional, it's really not new plants being added; it's a conversion from coal to natural gas. And that's been a great opportunity for us. And we're also very encouraged by progress with our Energy Storage business unit. which we've highlighted before in the past. On heavy truck, Class 8 build continues to be strong, although at somewhat of a more modest rate here in Q4, but we're still expecting progress for 2015 over 2014, and the forecasts we have for 2016 continue to look good. And this is another industry where we continue to experience growth from a positive markets, but also with some of the technologies that we've introduced to aid in emission controls in that industry. On Mobile, really off-highway, continued softness in mining and construction equipment. Turning to Europe, General Distribution is up year-over-year, but like North America, those areas impacted by oil & gas are a major headwind. We have some distributors near the North Sea that are off as much as 55% to 60%, so significant impacts there. But from a country standpoint, we do see positive year-over-year performance in countries like Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands from an Industrial standpoint. On Construction, we do see positive trend in higher-end domestic construction equipment markets. But those customers that are focused really around export, their businesses are badly depressed, mainly by what's happening in Russia and some of the other emerging markets in the Middle East. Oil & gas, as I mentioned earlier, that activity is very slow. We have seen a lot of major capital projects in the Middle East and North Sea have been delayed and moved out for a significant amount of time. Agriculture, continued softness. Issues continue to be compounded by really what's happening in Russia and the Ukraine. And then in truck, there really continues to be excellent strength in the heavy end of the market. Let me just turn to Asia now, if I can. We do see continued contraction in China. I think that's a little slower at this point than what we had expected. And we're not really forecasting anything significant there in general. We've seen continued weakness in construction equipment markets there. I'm not sure it can go to zero, but it is getting close. Distribution still growing, really through added locations, but as a whole I would say we're flat to moderately down. Power generation, I mentioned earlier. That still is a positive for us in our participation there. And I'd say one key area has been rail. China has really stepped out as a leading provider in both high-speed and metropolitan transportation. And we've been working with those customers closely and have had some great success there. And then lastly I'll just touch on Latin America. I think you know really the story continue to be Brazil; significant currency devaluation, continued contraction in GDP. We do see positives. Again, this common theme around power generation. We see it throughout Brazil but also in countries like Chile, Colombia, et cetera. Heavy truck contraction, it's really down 50% year-over-year in Brazil. Same thing, continued softness in construction equipment and ag. But we're also, like North America, we've made some really great progress in maintenance and services businesses with some of the CapEx that's already been deployed around oil and gas. You got a lot there, Steve.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
I appreciate it. Just one quick follow-on. Can you guesstimate how much of the distribution exposure is in energy? And then I'll pass it on.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
I wouldn't really be able to guesstimate right now. I would say those distributors around Southwest, Gulf and Western Canada have more exposure, but I'd be hard-pressed to give you a number right now.
Stephen Edward Volkmann - Jefferies LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Hammond from KeyBanc. Please proceed.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Hey. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, Jeff.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
So decremental performance, very good in the quarter. And it seems like in the guide, you're seeing that as sustainable. So I guess as you get further into this downturn, what's your confidence level you can sustain that? And maybe just speak to what you think you're doing differently in the cost structure maybe this cycle versus last cycle to be able to hold those decrementals?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, Jeff, I think one of the things that we're most proud of is our ability to maintain these margins, as Tom said, given the downturn that we saw in Q1 and, like you said, as we are foreseeing for the balance of the fiscal year. As we've been speaking about in many of our forums, we have done quite a bit of restructuring last year and the year before. That prior restructuring is serving us very well as we continue to get the savings from that this year and throughout the balance of the year. We also have been responding very quickly at each one of our operations throughout the world to the changing market conditions and we are much quicker responding today than we were in the prior downturns. And that is something that is serving us very well. And then lastly, with the new Win Strategy and our simplification efforts that we talked about last year, that has been kicking in in a very, very good way for us. We're very enthusiastic about our ability to maintain our margins in the area that you see in our guidance. And our simplification efforts we see being a very powerful driver for us from a margin standpoint going forward here. And that is one of the very important elements of the financial performance in the new Win Strategy that we're going to be focusing on going forward here. So I would say that those are the three major changes and things that are a little bit different than we've seen in prior downturns for us.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay, great. And then you mentioned September worsening. Can you just maybe speak to how that trended into October? And then also on the distributor destocking, I think, Lee, you said you thought that continues through calendar year end. What's really in the guidance around distributor destocking?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Jeff, it's Tom. I'll start first with September. So September worsened. We saw July come out about how we expected. August turned a little bit better, so we were a little bit optimistic. Then September got worse and that continued. And basically what we've seen in October is reflective of what we've done in our revised guidance. And I guess just on the destocking part, what's in the guidance is destocking finishing end of this calendar year, so end of Q2, early into Q3.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.:
Okay, thanks.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Hi. Good morning. I guess my question centers around just pricing as well as material costs. I think there's increased scuttle in the channel that pricing has deteriorated. So I'm wondering if you could give some color on what you're seeing and what your assumptions are in terms of pricing for 2016 and then also what your assumptions are on the material cost side. Thanks.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
Yeah, Jamie. It's Lee. So overall, you're right; it's a challenging environment on pricing and it's a favorable environment on material costs. So I would say in our guidance, it's just basically flat going forward. It's going to continue to be a challenging environment. That's the best way I can characterize it for you.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
But I guess when you think about – is it specific to a certain end market or type of customer? You know what I mean? Or can you talk just more broadly competitively like what you're seeing, just any color I guess besides it's bad?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
I would say pricing is most challenged around those markets that are down significantly. So if you think about the oil and gas markets we talked about, where there is just really no significant demand right now. We continue to have great pricing opportunities in markets outside that. But there is some momentum in some of those key end markets that do make it a challenging environment. And that, plus coupled with the fact that you have this deflationary effect going on with materials, it just makes it a – we're still positive, but it's a challenging environment.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay. And then I guess just my second question just relates to capital allocation. I know this year your guidance implies your share count doesn't change from where we are in the first quarter. Can you just talk about has there been any change in priority or acquisition or acquisitions popping up as more favorable? I don't know if pricing is getting any better relative to like a year, 12 months to 18 months ago, when the pricing environment on acquisitions just wasn't in your favor?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Jamie. This is Tom. So I'll start with the capital allocation priority. So they haven't changed versus the dividends. We want to maintain that increased record. And our target is 30% pay-out to net income. And we're at that and we're above that, on going the last 12 months, we're quite a bit above that. The next would be organic growth to fund CapEx for organic growth and innovation as well. And then when we look at share repurchase and acquisitions, it's really looking at a case-by-case basis and making the best decision that generates the best long-term value for our shareholders looking at those two in comparison. On the share side, you saw what we did in the quarter. So we bought $310 million of shares, approximately $112 a piece. So we're now at $1.64 billion, so we're 82% of the way to the low end of our commitment. And we're still committed to that $2 billion to $3 billion range and I think we're making good progress on that. On the acquisition front, we continue to work that pipeline. But just by nature, how acquisitions work, they're going to be lumpy, they're going to be difficult for us to predict and give you any kind of visibility to. But I would tell you valuations still from our perspective are high. And we're disciplined buyers and so there's been several properties that we've passed on because of that. And we'll just continue to work it and we'll have to see what yields out of it. But, again, it's looking at that in conjunction with share repurchase and making the best long-term decision here.
Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker):
Okay, thanks. I'll get back in queue.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of John Inch from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Morning. So, hey, Jon, you called out unfavorable mix as part of the walk from the $7 to the $6.10 within the $1.14 drag versus your prior expectation. And then, Lee, you just said that you're not expecting any pricing, so I want to square those two. In other words, what's actually happened with respect to mix in three months that warranted calling that out, especially if price is only flat, right? So unfavorable mix implies there's price degradation or realization in some manner. Could you just talk to that and maybe the context? Is it significant, the $1.14? I mean, just trying to make sure I'm triangulating all these points.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Sure. I think when I talked about mix, I talked about the change in volume. And as we go forward and we look at all of our end markets, as the volume in the higher margin end markets reduces, that is having a impact on our margins that outweighs all the other end markets that we have. And so historically, John, North America has been progressing very well in terms of our sales growth over the last several years. What we're starting to see now, and you see it in our orders and you see it in our guidance, is that North America sales increases, this is actually now of course decreases are more pronounced in North America than they are in our International Industrial markets. And so from a mix standpoint on that volume, we are being impacted disproportionately, so.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. Okay, so you're saying basically lower volume in North America is translating into lower realized overall profit within Industrial. I think that's what you're saying.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Right. More of a volume issue than a pricing issue here for us.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
So, in other words, Jon, when you look at North America rolling orders down 11%, is that all volume? Or is there also little bit of degradation – like is that all a unit volume or is there any kind of price degradation that bakes into the 11%?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
It's primarily almost all volume; it is not pricing, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay. So then, Lee, when you said pricing is now going to be flat, can you just remind me what was that versus? Did you previously think it was up like 0.5% or something? Or is it, kind of squaring with Jon's comments, not really that material?
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
I'm sorry, John. I lost you the last half there, but...
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Oh. Jon is making the point that it's kind of the change here, which is fine, is volume and there's associated decrementals. But you made the comment to Jamie that now you expect price to be flat. So I'm just trying to understand is, what was that versus? In other words, you had been hoping that price was going to improve, but it's now flat? Or it's actually gone a little softer? That's all. I'm just trying to make sure I'm dotting all of my i's.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, just to try to connect the dots here for you. When Lee was talking about pricing being flat, we're really talking about our process inside the company that where we take every part that we ship today in every single one of our divisions and we compare the price of that part today to that price of that same part that we shipped the exact same time last year and we calculate a sales price index. And in that sales price index that Lee is talking about, it's basically flat. And that is the flat pricing that we're seeing overall that Lee I think was referring to. Does that help?
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Yeah. He also – well, he is right there. Lee, you also made the comment that pricing is – you almost implied it was increasingly perhaps challenging. The reason I'm harping on this is price is one of these buzzwords right now that people are throwing out. And the companies are sort of not suggesting, including your own, that there's really that much realized price degradation versus the chatter of potential. I just want to make sure you're not really (42:48) more substantial.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
So realized price degradation is not something I worry about...
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Okay.
Lee C. Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer:
...for the company. There are certain end markets that are price challenged and there are certain markets that are not price challenged. When you kind of sum it up across the board, it is kind of a zero-sum game. But I don't worry about price degradation as a whole for the company.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Got it. Just lastly, $70 million of restructuring savings. How does that delineate over the next three quarters?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
It's a total of $20 million in the first half and $50 million in the second half, John.
John G. Inch - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.:
Okay, got it. Thanks very much.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski, Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hi, Josh.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
This is a follow-up to Jeff's question earlier on the decremental margin management. It looks like as it pertains to the 2Q guide, you guys actually did a little better managing that sequentially. And I would think with all the comments around destocking, particularly in distribution where you have some better mix, presumably you're also destocking in your own facilities, so maybe absorption is a little lighter, I would imagine that something between some of the input cost deflation, restructuring savings are helping bridge that. Can you maybe talk about how that squares out, either by 1Q, 2Q, first half, second half, just so we can help square up volume versus some of the other discreet items coming through?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. I think that it's really hard to articulate very quickly the depth and breadth of the restructuring that we've done in the prior years and how that is impacting as the year goes on our decremental margins. One thing to just point out, Josh, would be the early retirement that we announced in Q4 of last year. That is largely going to start having major impacts on our business in Q2. So what we did is go through each one of our operations and, with this new volume that we're looking at, make sure because we saw how favorable these decrementals look, that we've got the actions either already completed and the savings started, or that we are realizing benefits from programs that we put in place last year and the year before, frankly, in some economies, that are going to be impacting the bottom line for Q2. So we feel very good about the guidance that we gave there. And we realize that the decrementals are something that are, at first glance, could appear to be aggressive.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
Is that fair, though, the earlier supposition that you guys are destocking internally to go along with what your customers are doing? So, I guess, should we look at that performance as even kind of better versus the absorption headwind?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
I think so. I think so. We're able to handle the absorption headwind with the reduced volume with the amount of restructuring that we've planned on doing. And I can't emphasize enough the power of a simplification program where we are trying to make the company a lot more efficient, a lot less reliant on indirect overhead that is really not adding value, and really being able to push our margins in directions that we've never seen before in the history of the company. And so, yes, we're able to overcome the lack of absorption overhang that we're going to see in Q2.
Joshua Pokrzywinski - The Buckingham Research Group, Inc.:
All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Casey of Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Thanks a lot. Good morning, everybody. Wanted to ask a question on the revenue guidance. If I take your midpoint and the comment about the split, 48% to first half, it kind of implies Q2 revenue down about 15%. And I'm trying to square that with the comment about fiscal second half being down about 5%. So could you talk about the components of that Q2 forecast, meaning organic and currency? Because I'm trying to understand the step-up from 15% down to 5% down. Is that all currency or is there something else built into the outlook?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Andy, it's Tom. I'll start and then Jon can fill in details if there's more follow-up that you have. But in the second half, that 5% I was talking about was total company. So that has the Industrial piece being down worse and Aerospace being more positive. Currency is around, for our mid-point, currency is about 2.7 points of the 9.5% for the full year. And you are about right with what you thought for Q2; we have it around 14% down on sales.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you, Tom. And then one specific question, maybe Jon can help out. In the quarter on cash flow, there was about a $265 million consumption related to other assets and liabilities. And that's the highest in a few quarters. Can you kind of detail what was in that?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Well, in that case, there was – we really only did three major things in the quarter. We bought stock, and that's $310 million, we made a pension contribution of $200 million and we made acquisitions of $67 million for the quarter. So those are the major changes. There are some movements in the cash flow related to tax, the equity investment that we made in the Internet of Things company that Tom referred to and a few other things, Andy, but that's really the lion's share of the uses of cash here for us in the quarter.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Just a follow-up on that, Jon. Thank you. So the $200 million of pension funding, would that be within that $265 million?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC:
Okay. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Morning, Joe.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
So my first question, I guess just trying to get my head around the top-line reduction was roughly about $1 billion in revenue. And you guys kept the restructuring plans and simplification plans at roughly $100 million. How much of that is a question of internal capacity to actually do additional restructuring, given what you have in place today, as opposed to just feeling like the $100 million is the right number and aligned and you'll be at the right place even in a lower-growth environment?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Joe, this is Tom. I think what we're finding on the restructuring is a couple things. One, we're able to do a lot of the projects less expensive than what we anticipated. So we're actually adding to the project list. We didn't change the number to you, but we're adding extra projects because we've been more efficient on the ones that we already looked at. Simplification in general is a more efficient way of deploying restructuring spend because it's not dealing as much with footprint consolidations, plant closures and all that, which carry typically more cost. It's more focused on SG&A, the overhead piece of things. And so when you do division consolidations, you look at optimizing organization, structure, processes. When we did the early retirement, we looked at organization design changes to not have to replace people in kind, at least not one for one. All those changes can be done more efficiently without the same level of restructuring. So we are actually doing more within that envelope of $100 million. We just didn't need to change the dollar amount because we're just being more efficient.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
All right. That's helpful color there, Tom. Maybe just asking a little more detailed question on one of the segments. Haven't really heard much about Aero yet. Orders deteriorated double-digits now for the second quarter in a row. I'm just curious what's going on there. How should we expect that to read through to growth, not just in this year but also into next year? Because it tends to be a little bit longer cycle.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah, Joe, Jon here. Just to give you first top-level answer to that. Keep in mind that when we publish our Aerospace numbers, they are a 12-month rolling forecast. And last year – the comparables are tough for us for right now because last year we booked several multi-year, multi-program large orders. And those large orders that we booked ran our 12-month number way up. We were up, approximately this time last year, we were up 12%. And so we're looking at we're down 16% now. It's not really nearly as severe as it appears. We're still confident in our growth rates going forward in the 4% level in Aerospace. So I completely appreciate the question and how that looks very unusual. We've been taking a really hard, hard look at that and we feel confident that it was just that series of multi-program, multi-year orders that we booked based on contracts that we received that were fully priced and scheduled out that drove our orders up at that point in time.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs & Co.:
Okay, great. I'll get back in queue. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Good morning, everyone.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hi, Nathan.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
A question on the guidance first. There is a $30 million reduction in corporate expense for the year. Can you give us some more color around that?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Nathan, that is primarily – the biggest driver there is as a result of the pension contribution that we did in August, our pension expense for our underfunded plans is going down. And that's the major driver.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay, that makes sense. And then on the free cash flow conversion dip down 90 basis point year-over-year, been hearing several companies talk about difficulty with collections, primarily in emerging markets in this environment. Is there any impact there to you? Or what is the reason for that 90 basis point lower conversion?
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Yeah. Well, if you're talking about – we really have two things going on here in the quarter. We are looking at DSO very carefully. We are not seeing any degradation whatsoever. But we are very aware of the issue and we are very focused on that. The issue for us was really in our inventories. We will see that correct in Q2 and Q3 and we'll see better cash. We always perform much better from a cash environment and we've been able to prove that over the years as things start to slow down a little bit. So we're fully confident. But I think it's mainly our performance in inventory that is the outlier there that we'll see correct as the year goes on.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Okay. And then you were talking about the sales price index not changing. I know you also track a cost price index. Are you seeing any more or less favorable outcomes there?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Yeah, Nathan. This is Tom. Yes, we're working that hard as one of the initiatives that we have. If you remember from our walk to 17% ROS on the operating margin side is working the supply chain. And, yes, we are seeing improvements and we will continue to work that. We'll work that on the indirect side, which doesn't necessarily show up in our purchase price index, but shows up in lower expenses, which is part of helping us in our margin on returns. But, yes, we're working that hard. And when I look at SPI to PPI, it's neutral to slightly positive, that comparison.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
Do you think you can hold that positive for the year?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
I think so, yes.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.:
All right. Thanks very much.
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Okay. Sue, we'll just take one more question, please.
Operator:
Thank you. And that question comes from the line of Andrew Obin, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Hi, yes. Good morning. Thanks for fitting me in.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Hi, Andrew.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
So the question in terms of leverage versus lower earnings forecast, how should we think about your willingness to take on leverage in this notably weaker environment yet an environment that could down the road present M&A opportunities?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
Well, Andrew, this is Tom. I think, as always, we want to make the best long-term decision for our shareholders looking at acquisitions versus share repurchase. We still are committed to our A rating, and so that's a function that we look at all the time. So when we do our cash allocation discussion every quarter, we look at cash generated versus where we are in our debt to debt equity relationship and we make the best decisions that we possibly can on behalf of the shareholders. But certainly the A rating is a controlling device that we use. And I think it's been helpful for us. And the bulk of our peers, if you look at they're all A rated. And we think that's an advantage for us to continue to do that.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
And in your view, I know that rating agencies have been company-specific, but what does it mean in terms of sort of the upper band of leverage you would be comfortable with?
Thomas L. Williams - Chief Executive Officer:
We typically work to a 37% debt to total cap.
Andrew Obin - Bank of America Merrill Lynch:
Thanks.
Jon P. Marten - Executive Vice President-Finance & Adminstration and Chief Financial Officer:
Thank you, Andrew. And this concludes our Q&A and our earnings call for today. Thank you so much for everybody joining us today. Robin will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. And thank you. Have a great day.
Operator:
And thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect and have a very good day.
Executives:
Jon Marten - EVP, Finance & Administration, CFO Tom Williams - CEO Lee Banks - President & COO
Analysts:
Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse Timothy Thein - Citigroup Nathan Jones - Stifel Nicolaus Ann Duignan - JPMorgan Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research Andy Casey - Wells Fargo Securities John Inch - Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Welcome to the Q4 2015 Parker Hannifin earnings conference call. My name is Mark and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jon Marten, Executive Vice President and CFO. Please proceed, sir.
Jon Marten:
Thank you, Mark, good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin's fourth-quarter 2015 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams and President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on our company's Investor Information website at www.phstock.com for one year following today's call. On slide number 2 you will find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations or any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and are posted on Parker's website at www.phstock.com. Continuing on to slide number 3, I just want to point out the agenda for today's call. To begin our CEO, Tom Williams, will provide highlights for the fourth quarter and full-year 2015. And then following Tom's comments I will provide a review of the company's fourth-quarter and full-year 2015 performance together with the guidance for 2016. And Tom will provide a few summary comments and then we will open the call for a Q&A session. At this time I will turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to slides number 4 and then 5.
Tom Williams:
Thank you, Jon and welcome to everybody on the call. We appreciate your participation today. I'm going to take a few minutes to share our thoughts on the fourth quarter and our full-year results. I will also touch briefly on some of our end market conditions and provide an update on the upcoming rollout of the refreshed Win Strategy. This includes a focus on our new simplification initiatives, some of which you have already -- are already being implemented. I'd like to start with a few comments on our fourth quarter. We're operating in a tough environment as we continue to feel the effects of the strengthening dollar and ongoing weak conditions in some key end markets. Throughout the quarter we continue with actions to adjust to these conditions, including the completion of a voluntary retirement program in the United States and a broad range of other actions to reduce costs globally such as reductions in force, reduced work schedules and tight control of discretionary spending. Sales declined 11% in the fourth quarter as the effects of changes in currency rates negatively impacted us by 6% and organic sales declined 5%. Order rates were 9% lower than fourth quarter compared with the same quarter last year. This follows a 4% decline in the third quarter. We're working hard to align costs with such a swift change in order rates. All things considered I am pleased we delivered total adjusted segment operating margins of 14.9%. This compares to 15.0% adjusted in last year's fourth quarter. Folding adjusted segment operating margins flat while sales declined 11% is a nice accomplishment. Earnings per share were $1.27 or $1.43 adjusted for business realignment and the voluntary retirement program. Earnings were impacted by a higher effective tax rate through largely the changes in the geographic mix of pretax profits. This equated to a $0.30 negative impact to our Q4 2015 guide. Operating cash flow for the quarter was very strong at $511 million or 16.2% of sales. In regards to our performance for the full year, considering all the challenges we faced we performed well. Sales were $12.7 billion, a 4% decline compared with fiscal 2014. The entire decline in sales was driven by the effect of currency rate changes. Organic growth was flat as growth from most of our markets and innovative new products was offset by significant weakness in our natural resource-related end markets. We delivered a 50 basis point improvement in adjusted operating segment margins despite this sales decline and reached 14.9% compared to 14.4% in fiscal 2014. Fiscal year 2015 earnings per share were $6.97 compared to $6.87 in the prior year. On an adjusted basis earnings per share were $7.25 compared to $6.94 in fiscal 2014. As a reminder, fiscal 2015 earnings included $0.38 per share in transaction currency gains that are not expected to repeat in fiscal 2016. Cash flow was strong with full-year cash from operations of $1.3 billion or 10.2% of sales. This is the 14th consecutive year of cash sales greater than 10%, excluding discretionary pension contributions. This is strong, consistent performance despite several downturns over that timeframe. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same. Our top priority is to maintain our dividend and increase record followed by investing in our organic growth through CapEx and innovation. We remain committed to executing our previously announced share repurchase program while concurrently evaluating strategic acquisitions to boost the company's growth and profitability. We have repurchased approximately $1.3 billion under our plan to purchase $2 billion to $3 billion worth of Parker shares over two years which began October 2014. Our efforts to re-energize the pipeline of acquisition opportunities are proving effective as we're starting to see a pickup in activity. Moving on to a discussion on key market trends. We saw continued weak conditions in some key markets that are important to our business. Specifically natural resource markets like oil and gas, agriculture, mining and construction equipment showed continued weakness. Our distribution channel was also affected, especially those distributors who are exposed to oil and gas. These difficult market conditions outweighed positive growth trends in other markets such as power generation, heavy-duty truck, automotive and commercial residential air-conditioning. For fiscal year 2016 we're in initiating guidance for earnings per share of $6.15 to $6.85 or $6.65 to $7.35 per share on an adjusted basis. This guidance includes an increase in adjusted segmented operating margins of 14.9% to 15.4% for FY '16. Guidance for fiscal 2016 includes business realignment of approximately $0.50 per share of which $0.30 per share relates to our simplification initiatives. Simplification is one element of a broader effort to reduce complexity, increase speed, reduce costs and better serve our customers. Many of our groups have announced plans to consolidate divisions and eliminate the associated redundant overhead costs. Organization and process design changes are being implemented to streamline operations and corporate functions. We're also removing bureaucracy that can get in the way of our team members taking action to meet the needs of our customers. Simplification initiatives like these, when combined with our traditional realignment actions to optimize our manufacturing footprint, will build a stronger more agile Parker capable of generating consistent long-term profit growth. We do anticipate a bottom forming in fiscal year 2016 with the first half expected to continue with challenging conditions and the second half showing a slight uptick. Overall we forecast sales for the year to be down slightly. We will continue to aggressively manage costs in this environment while still investing in growth initiatives such as innovation. The cost reductions that were put in place in fiscal 2015 and the planned actions for fiscal 2016 will help us perform better in tough conditions and strongly position the company for the future. While adjusting our businesses to meet our immediate challenges we continue to plan for the future. On September 22 during our Investor Day in New York, we will share more details about a comprehensive refresh of the Win Strategy. We have spent the past six months gathering input from our key stakeholders globally. While many of the principles of the Win Strategy remain relevant, we're making changes that are intended to take the company's performance to the next level. Our target will be to achieve top quartile financial performance among our Diversified Industrial peers and we see many specific opportunities to drive growth and margin expansion at Parker. We're excited about these opportunities that will position Parker to be an even stronger leader as the number one motion control company in the world. And for now I will hand things back to Jon to give you some more details on the quarter.
Jon Marten:
Thanks, Tom. And at this time transitioning to slide number 6, I will address the earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 was $1.43 versus $2.06 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to a decrease of $0.63. This excludes restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses of $0.16 and compares to -- which compares to $0.08 for the same quarter last year. Please also note that in Q4 we made numerous tax adjustments that amounted to $0.30 per share due to the mix of pretax profits noted in the quarter and a few discrete items that were incurred. Adjusted earnings per share for the full year 2015 were $7.25 versus $6.94 for the full year of 2014. Total realignment expenses were $0.28 for the full year 2015 and that compares to adjustments for restructuring, asset write-downs and the joint venture that was formed which in total net to $0.07 of expense for the full year in 2014. Also included in FY '15 earnings is the 38% -- $0.38 per share in transactional currency gains that are not expected to repeat in FY '16, as Tom alluded to earlier. On slide 7 we discussed the influences on adjusted earnings for Q4 versus Q4 of last year. And you will find the significant components of the walk from the adjusted earnings of $2.06 to $1.43 for Q4 of FY '15. The impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.10 per share. Reductions to adjusted per share income include, one, lower adjusted segment operating income of $0.30 per share driven by the strengthened U.S. dollar and weakened end markets demand; the impact of the increased effective tax rate which was $0.30 per share as a result of the shift in the geographic mix of pretax profit as well as the discrete items; and an increase in corporate G&A expenses that totaled $0.13 per share due in part to the early retirement program in FY '15 and unusual one time credits booked in FY '14 in Q4. Slide number 8 discusses the influence on adjusted earnings per share for 2015 versus 2014 for the full year. On slide number 8 you will find the significant components of the walk from adjusted EPS of $6.94 for the full 2014 to $7.25 for the full 2015. An increase of $0.59 was realized from net other income due to, one, the $0.38 of income related to the transactional currency gain primarily booked in Q3 of FY '15; and less stock comp expense booked in FY '15 of $0.07 as well is lower pension expense in FY '15 of $0.05 versus the FY '14. There was also $0.30 from fewer shares outstanding as a result of the company's enhanced share buyback program announced and initiated in October of 2014. And decreases were driven by the $0.33 primarily due to the corporate G&A, $0.23 from a higher effective tax rate and a $0.02 reduction in adjusted segment operating income. So now moving to slide number 9, with a review of the total company sales and segment operating margins for the fourth quarter and full year. From a segment standpoint total company organic sales and Q4 decreased by 4.9% over the same quarter last year. There was minimal contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions. Currency impact as a percent of sales was slightly higher than planned equating to a negative impact on reported sales of $210 million or $0.06 in the quarter. The total segment operating margin for Q4 adjusted for the realignment cost incurred in the quarter was 14.9% versus 15% for the same quarter a year ago. Restructuring costs incurred in the quarter were $27 million versus $18 million last year. The lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $467 million versus $530 million last year reflects the meaningful impact of a strengthened U.S. dollar against the foreign currencies. For the full year organic sales in FY '15 adjusted for the GE joint venture as represented in the upper right portion of the page were slightly positive at 0.6%. The effect of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $546 million or a negative 4.1% of sales for the full year which represents the entirety of the sales decline in FY '15. Total company segment operating margin for FY '15 adjusted for realignment costs incurred during the year was 14.9% versus 14.4% in FY '14, an increase of 50 basis points. Restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses incurred in FY '15 totaled $50 million. Moving to slide number 10, here I will discuss the actual business segments within Diversified Industrial North America and for -- first of all, for Q4, North America organic sales decreased by 6% as compared to the same quarter last year and there was a 1.2% negative impact in the quarter due to currency. Operating margin for the fourth quarter adjusted for realignment costs was 17.3% versus 17.7% in the prior year. Restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses totaled $15 million as compared to $1 million in the prior year. And adjusted operating income was $244 million as compared to $269 million from last year which is driven by the reduced volume as a result of the softening trends in key end markets. For the full year organic sales for FY '15 increased by 1.2%. Contributions to sales from acquisitions were minimal. The impact of foreign currency translation resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $50 million or a negative 0.9%. For the full year 2015 operating margin adjusted for [indiscernible] costs was 17% of sales versus 16.7% in the prior year. Restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses totaled $17 million as compared to $2 million in FY '14. And adjusted operating income for fiscal year 2015 was $972 million as compared to the $949 million from last year. Now continue to slide 11 organic sales for the quarter for the Diversified Industrial international segment decreased by 4%. Currency negatively impacted sales by 13.6%. Operating margin for the fourth quarter adjusted for realignment cost was 10.9% of sales versus 11.2% in the prior year. Restructuring expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $6 million as compared to $18 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $124 million as compared to $156 million which reflects the translational impact of the strengthened U.S. dollar as well as, very importantly, weaker end markets. For the full year organic sales for the fiscal year 2015 decreased by 1.2%. The impact of foreign currency resulted in a negative impact to reported sales of $487 million or a negative 9.2% of sales for the full year. For the full FY '15 operating margin adjusted for realignment costs was 12.9% of sales versus 12.7% in the prior year. Restructuring expenses totaled $27 million as compared to $99 million in FY '14. Adjusted operating income for FY '15 was $611 million as compared to $671 million last year, reflecting the translational impact of the strengthened U.S. dollar. Now on slide 12, in Aerospace -- organic revenues decreased 4% for the fourth quarter. Currency posed a modest negative 0.6 of a percent while commercial OEM sales for the period were strong. The segment sales decline for the period was driven by lower military OEM and military aftermarket sales volume and favorable contract settlements reported as revenue in FY '14 Q4. Operating margin for the fourth quarter adjusted for the realignment cost was 16.9% of sales versus 17% in the prior year. Restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses incurred in the quarter totaled $5.8 million as compared to zero related expense in the prior corresponding quarter. Adjusted operating income was $99 million as compared to $105 million in the prior year reflecting the impact of the reduced aftermarket sales volume in the quarter, albeit partially offset by reduced development costs as a percent of sales which was 7.5% for the quarter. For the full year organic sales for fiscal year 2015 adjusted for the impact of the joint venture that was formed increased by 3.7%. For the full year 2015 operating margin adjusted for the realignment cost was 13.5% of sales versus 12.5% in the prior year. Restructuring and voluntary retirement expenses totaled $6 million compared to $1 million in the prior year. And adjusted operating income for fiscal year 2015 was $305 million as compared to $272 million last year which is largely attributed to the reduction of the development cost as a percent of sales and our increased OEM commercial volume. Moving to slide number 13 with the detail of orders changes by segment. As a reminder, we report orders on a trailing average that are expressed as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year over year excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders shifted to a negative 9% for the quarter end reflecting the continued weakness in oil and gas, construction, mining and agriculture which represented four important industrial end markets. Diversified Industrial North America orders decreased to a negative 9%; International orders decreased to a negative 5%; and Aerospace orders decreased to a negative 14% for the quarter against very high prior year comps. Now on slide 14 we're going to discuss the cash from operations. For the fourth quarter cash from operating activities was $511 million or 16.2%. This aligns to the same 16.2% of sales for the same period last year. For the all year cash from operating activities for fiscal 2015 was $1.3 billion or 10.2% of sales as compared to 11.1% last year. In FY '14 cash from operating activities was adjusted for a pension contribution of $75 million. There was no pension contribution made during FY '15. The significant uses of cash during the year, $1.7 billion returned to our shareholders via share repurchases of $1.4 billion and dividends of $340 million. $216 million for CapEx equating to 1.7% of sales for the year. And now turning to the guidance slide on number 15, guidance is provided on an adjusted basis. Segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude expected business realignment charges which are forecasted to be incurred throughout FY '16. Total sales are expected to be in the range of minus 3% to zero as compared to the prior year. Adjusted organic growth at the midpoint is basically flat. Currency in the guidance negatively impacts sales by 1.7% which is nearly all attributed to the industrial international segment. We have calculated the impact of currency to spot rates as of June 30, 2015 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the upcoming FY '16. For the total Parker adjustment segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.2% and 15.6%. This compares to 14.9% for 2015 on an adjusted basis. The guidance for below the line items which includes corporate admin, interest and our other expense category, is $540 million for the year of the midpoint. The full year tax rate is projected to be 29%. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in our full-year guidance was $140.8 million. On the topic of share repurchase as communicated during last quarter's earnings call, we remain committed to the $2 billion to $3 billion share repurchase announced in October of 2014. To date share repurchases -- share repurchase spend totals 67%, at the low end of the announced repurchase program and we anticipate that the balance on the commitment for repurchases will be made discretionarily over the remaining 14 months of the program. For the full year guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis is $6.65 to $7.35 or $7.00 at the midpoint. This guidance excludes business realignment expenses of approximately $100 million to be incurred in FY '16. The effect of this restructuring on EPS is approximately $0.50 for the full year, consisting of $0.20 for restructuring and $0.30 for the simplification initiatives that Tom outlined earlier. Savings from these business realignment initiatives are projected to be $70 million. Some additional key assumptions for the full year 2016 guidance are, sales are divided 48% in the first half, 52% in the second half; adjusted segment operating income is divided 45% for the first half, 55% for the second half; EPS for the first half is $2.96 and for the second half $4.04. And the Q1 adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $1.47 per share at the midpoint and this excludes $0.21 of business realignment expenses including both the simplification program as well as our traditional restructuring. On slide 16 we have the major reconciliation of the major components, FY '16 adjusted EPS guidance of $7.00 at the midpoint from prior FY '15 EPS of $7.25 per share. Increases include $0.21 from fewer shares outstanding, $0.19 from increased segment operating income, $0.09 from reduced corporate G&A and $0.02 from a reduced full-year effective tax rate. Key components of the decrease include a $0.68 reduction from increased other expense as a result of prior year other income, the most significant portion having been attributed to the unpegging of the Swiss franc and the euro during the third quarter and for the full year $0.38. As you will recall, this resulted in a one-time intercompany settlement gain in Q3. There was also $0.19 impacting this category from increased forecasted pension expense due to updated mortality tables and, finally, $0.08 from increased interest expense. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that closed or that will close during FY '16. For consistency we ask that you exclude restructuring expenses from your published estimates. This concludes my prepared comments. Tom, I will turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Tom Williams:
Thanks, Jon. We do have some challenges ahead, but the good news about FY '16 is that with every quarter we move closer to the bottom of the decline in the natural resource markets that we serve. As we've demonstrated, we performed well in tough times. The bright spot is that we enter our new fiscal year leaner than ever and we're taking additional concrete actions to further lower our cost structure. We're also encouraged by our new product and systems commercialization progress. As a result we expect to perform well as sales start to increase. Importantly, Parker has a fantastic foundation and legacy to build upon. Our culture is strong, with tremendous support by our global team members who I know will do everything they can to achieve the goals we have set for them. I want to thank them for embracing the changes that we're implementing at Parker. I'm confident we have a bright future ahead of us and I look forward to sharing with all of you our progress throughout the year. And with that I will turn it over to Mark to initiate the question-and-answer portion of the call.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Jamie Cook:
I guess just a couple quick questions. One, on the restructuring and simplification initiatives I think you said that you expect a $70 million pay off. Can you -- I guess more broadly can you talk about which segments the restructuring and simplification is aimed at? As we think about the $70 million savings when do we begin to realize that I guess would be my first question? So just a little more color on that. And then my second question relates to just the guidance. I think you said by the back half of 2016 you expect sales to increase. Just a little more color on that. And what gives you confidence that you start to see improvement in the back half of the year? Is it just easy comps? Is it assumption the markets get better? So any color on that. Thanks.
Tom Williams:
Okay, Jamie, I will start. This is Tom. So there is two questions you've got. I'll start with the whole restructuring simplification piece. Jon will have a few more details on that, than I will follow up with your question about the guidance. Okay, so, we're introducing this new concept of simplification which really isn't entirely new to the company. But let me give a little color on this as far as what we're trying to do here. So the focus is to reduce complexity, increase speed, reduce our cost and improve service to our customers which ultimately is going to help enable growth. So the key areas we're going to focus on is first, if you look at our revenue profile, particularly look at any typical division, you look at the last several percent of revenue, it typically carries a disproportionate amount of costs, part numbers, quote activity, so we're going to look at that revenue profile. We're also looking at organization and process simplification to optimize to that revenue profile, but also basic things like looking at number of layers, span of controls, other kinds of things around organizational structure. We're taking a fresh look at our division structure. Now we're complete believers in the divisional structure, that P&L focus we love, we're going to continue to be a decentralized company. However, we have -- as a starting point we have 115 operating divisions around the world. When we look at those divisions we see about 20% of them that have overlaps in product charter or product technologies that would benefit from combining them and getting more scale and synergies on both growth and on cost. So we're going to look at that 20%, we will probably take about 10% of our total operating divisions and reduce that as a result of that overlap and the last area will be around bureaucracy. Just reports, activities, our planning process, you name it, we're going to look at trying to just simplify how we do things. So I will let Jon make a few comments about how it is going to be spread through the year. So that is the simplification part. The traditional restructuring will be reduction in forces, plant consolidations, all market adjustments that we're making so they are really additive. The simplification thing is around all the things I said plus the traditional restructuring. So, Jon, you can comment on the -- how it times out.
Jon Marten:
I think, Jamie, just in the big picture, 60% of the cost should be incurred in the first half. And we should get about 20% of the savings in the first half and then we will get to the remainder of the savings in the second half. And of course the 40% of the cost incurred in the second half. So that is the way we have kind of got it timed in our guidance. We have got very detailed plans and we're going to leave it at that for now.
Tom Williams:
And, Jamie, so I will go back to your second question which was -- and which I am sure is probably a question everybody has, how did we come up with the guidance. So from a process standpoint we always -- this is a bottoms up process from our divisions. We also build economic models to try to model how the forecast might be. And they happen to converge on about the same number which is the guidance that we've given you. But the color behind it, for the first half of the year we're continuing to see challenges in that natural resource-related market. So oil and gas, Ag, mining and construction, we expect distribution to continue destocking, particularly for those distributors that have exposure to oil and gas for the first six months. And when we look at the year and we see Ag and mining starting to bottom at the end of this calendar year, so at the end of our Q2. And in our forecast this is for oil and gas and construction equipment to bottom at the end of our fiscal year. So we're not really expecting any help from construction and oil and gas. However, the fact that they are not going down as rapidly and they are seeking bottom towards the end of our year it provides less headwind for us. So the natural resources markets are going to either be at bottom or close to bottom. And then the other positive markets that have been what we have seen positive growth throughout this year will continue into next year. And that will provide the growth in the second half. We have easier comps, we will be at bottom or nearing bottom in those tougher markets and the positive markets will be power gen, heavy-duty truck, rail, SEMICON, life science, general industrial, automotive, telecom, air-conditioning and aero. And we see a small moderate growth for distribution. So that is kind of the makeup of the year and how we came up with a minus 1.5 for the total year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Timothy Thein from Citi Research. Please proceed.
Timothy Thein:
Tom just following up on your last comment there, was -- just so I am clear. So you are expecting within industrial globally the OE versus distribution split. Some growth is forecasted for distribution is I guess part one? And then just second, can you provide more detail in terms of the quarter just completed? What you saw in terms of the -- within that order decline, how that mix played out, i.e. distribution versus OE?
Tom Williams:
Yes, I will start and I'm going to let Lee cover the market for the last quarter. But yes, our assumption is that there will be a small moderate growth, low single digits, for distribution in our forecast period. But I will let Lee give you color on the current quarter, what we saw, what we're currently seeing.
Lee Banks:
Timothy, this is Lee. I think what I will do if it is okay with you, I'm going to comment on the industrial markets and maybe just walk you through the different regions. And I will touch on distribution and OE and different markets throughout those regions. And try not to be redundant here, I think there is just three big headwind themes. One is the translational effect currency is having. That is the biggest impact to the top line, no doubt. We have mentioned a couple of times natural resource driven markets. And then lastly, I think there is this -- the third drag would be the continued regional/country weakness in Europe, China and Brazil. So with that as a backdrop, I will just touch on North America. I will start with distribution. If we look at FY '15, distribution did grow organically, but there was absolutely a noticeable slowdown in Q3 and a contraction in Q4 sequentially and year over year. The slowdown was largely attributed to those distributors with significant oil and gas exposure. And as Tom mentioned earlier, we expect another six months of destocking in that channel before it has worked itself out. On the positive side, we continue to see real positive momentum with our distribution base that is exposed to automotive Tier 1s and machine builders. They all experienced growth and continued to throughout the quarter. Talking about oil and gas, continued contraction across all upstream sectors. Offshore activity sequentially got worse since our last call. Land-based activities sequentially worse, but only mildly so. It didn't -- not at the rate that it was in Q3. On a positive note, we continue to gain market position by helping our customers decrease costs in that sector, really using our system applications. And we have introduced some new technology developments that has really positioned us well as we go forward. Agriculture, I think we know that is soft. Power generation has been a positive for us, almost completely globally, definitely in North America. Through FY '15 and Q4, there has been a shift from coal to gas-fired plants and that has really played well for us in terms of opportunities. And then the whole renewable energy has been positive for us. And I think we have shared with you in the past some of the things out of our Winovation pipeline. But we're really excited about our energy storage business, that continues to gain great momentum in that energy storage space. And you may have noticed a recent press release on some significant new contracts with Alevo. Heavy truck, Class 8 build rigs continue at a high level. We continue to experience growth and positive market position with many of our standard products and subsystems. And we have introduced some new technologies there to aid in emissions controls which are positioning us even better as we go forward. In mobile continued softness in mining and CEs. We have talked about we're bullish on the recent ABI trends that will bode well going forward. Switching now to Europe, a lot of news about -- a lot of questions around green shoots, PMI, etc. We have not really seen a significant uptick with our customers with some exceptions. The export activity out of Germany hasn't been what it was. I suspect that is largely due from the historic pull from China which I will get to in a minute. Oil and gas activity has been slow. Many major capital projects that we have been involved with have been pushed out. Distribution performance I would categorize as flat to moderately down throughout Europe. We have seen some positive in construction, although modestly. Agriculture continues to be soft, a couple of big forces there. Food prices are low, one, but second there continues to be a lot of debate over food subsidies or farm subsidies throughout the European union. So that is suppressing investment. And then the continued conflict in Russia and the Ukraine have really reduced investments. Truck was a strong quarter. In Europe there was a really strong residual impact of the Euro 5. Truck pre-purchased, we expect demand going forward to be closer to underlying need. And then in China we saw modest attraction in Q4 and year over year. We see continued weakness in construction of machinery. I mean that is down probably 10% year over year off of very depressed FY '14 levels. Distribution in Asia continues to grow positively. I think, one, it is better same-store sales to use that term. And that we continue to add locations. So that has been a positive. Another positive has really been rail both in subsystems and components. China is really becoming a producer of choice in Asia and Africa and we're happy to be a participant in that. And then automotive implant continues to be positive. I talked about power generation earlier, that is positive mostly in renewable energy. And then lastly Latin America, I will touch on this quickly. The story really is around Brazil. I just returned from there a week ago. Significant GDP contraction and weakness really across almost all sectors with the exception of power generation. We have seen some significant wins in solar and wind power in that area and the investment plan there is strong. Heavy-duty truck is extremely weak, the natural resource markets we talked about are week. The one benefit we have had, Petrobras has reduced their plan investments nearly 40% for the next five-year projection. But a strength and emphasis on maintenance of existing infrastructure and that has really played well for us. So that is a lot there, but that just gives you a quick color on where we saw the quarter.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Nathan Jones from Stifel. Please proceed.
Nathan Jones:
If I could just get back to the margin guidance for 2016, can you talk about your total Parker margin guidance is up about 50 basis points despite lower revenue. I am sure you get some benefit from the new simplification project that you are embarking on. Can you talk about where the underlying margin improvement is coming from, be it restructuring or new products, etc.?
Jon Marten:
Nathan, it is really coming from a couple of different areas. First of all of course we have been restructuring this year, we did the early retirement program in Q4. We had a significant restructuring that we did in FY '14. We're glad that we did that, that is going to continue to drive important savings for us in FY '16. And the simplification program that we're initiating for FY '16 is going to help us drive margins. And so, we're very focused on driving our margins up and as we added it all up we were able to come on an adjusted basis with 50 basis points higher margins in FY '16 on as reported lower sales. So it is going to be that reduction in our fixed cost infrastructure driving higher margins, as well as it is going to be our ability to just further drive our new businesses and new products into increased margins in ways that we have not seen before. And so, when you pull that altogether that gives us this advantage. We're also seeing, as I know you know, 100 basis points higher margins in Aerospace which is also helping drive the total company's margins up too by -- for next year and is an important part of that. And a big part of that increased Aerospace margins is coming as a result of the reduction in some of our development expenses as well as the expansion that we're experiencing in the OEM, super cycle commercial shipments.
Nathan Jones:
And then my follow-up question is on pricing. You have seen 4% order declines in the third quarter, 9% order declines in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about what impact that is having on pricing in the market and how competitors are behaving, what the competitive environment is like at the moment?
Lee Banks:
I mean certainly it is a tough pricing environment. I mean we're pleased but we track this very closely with our SPI index and we're still positive year to date, we were positive in the quarter. One of the things that we try to do is really address our customers' cost issue. And we do that through bundling technologies and helping them take cost out of their system. So we try to get away from price per se. But bottom line is still positive, it is a tough environment, though I don't want to describe it any other way.
Nathan Jones:
Are you expecting price to be neutral to positive going forward?
Lee Banks:
We're expecting it basically to be flat in our guidance.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Ann Duignan from JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Ann Duignan:
Can you give us some more color on your Aerospace orders? I don't know if I missed it, but I know you said tough comps, but I think you also said that commercial aftermarket was down. You are not the first company to note that and I am just curious what is going on in commercial aftermarket or if I missed [indiscernible].
Jon Marten:
Not sure. Well, I think that in our commercial aftermarket we're actually up slightly there in our orders. So it is not a big move up, but we're up slightly there. From an order standpoint the major driver for us is military. And so these orders, Ann, that are really driving our numbers, as you know, for the military and can be very lumpy and that was the comparable number that I was talking about. And that is what is really driving the numbers. We're also seeing some move in our commercial OEM business down slightly. But again, that is from a very high ordering pattern this time last year and really throughout the beginning of the cycle which is now starting to level off to more numbers that are more representative of how we see ourselves going forward which is indicated in our guidance. Does that help, Ann?
Ann Duignan:
Yes it does actually. Thank you, it helps a lot. I've got a lot of questions on that since you released. Can you talk about your confidence in your outlook for the start of a recovery and distribution in the back half. There isn't much visibility there, I mean where could you be wrong?
Tom Williams:
Ann, this is Tom. I mean, as you know, any forecast is usually wrong the day after we send it out. But I think we have some fair assumptions. We have done this through visibility to customer demand, distribution inventory, our own economic modeling and then our bottoms up from our divisions was all basically coalesced along the same thing. So the key assumptions will be that we're assuming bottoming of some of those end markets that were giving us the most trouble. So mining in the second quarter and Ag in the second quarter and then oil and gas and construction in Q4. So if those were to slip at all that would be a potential risk. But that is our best assumption right now. And of course every quarter we're going to give you a new look at that and what we think. So we think that is fair based on all the intelligence that we have been able to gather to date.
Ann Duignan:
And then other than your oil and gas outlook, are you assuming an increase in rig count from here or just kind of stay at this level and we bump along?
Tom Williams:
Yes, we're assuming flat and basically if oil and gas gets to flat that becomes a positive for us because it has been such a drag the last two quarters.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc. Please proceed.
Jeff Hammond:
If we could just zero in on oil and gas, I think you have talked about that as being a $1 billion business. Can you just talk about how you think about that for the full year magnitude of decline and how that kind of plays into the margin mix?
Tom Williams:
Well, Jeff, this is Lee. I mean it is -- we have talked about it being a big headwind in terms of margin mix, there is no doubt about that. I mean if you look at the oil and gas, I mean we have got OEM customers that are off 50%. So they are going -- 50% with us, they are going through a big destocking process with us. So I think once we work our way through that, work through the inventory that is in the channel it will be a little more line pole in terms of demand, I think that will be a positive for us. But we're not forecasting other than line pole a big rebound in that market.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay and then can you quantify what distribution was down in North America in the quarter and how much you think of that as just temporary destock versus the underlying short-term demand trend?
Lee Banks:
Yes, in the quarter about 4% would be our best guess. And I think a lot of that has to do with, again, just destocking some of these end markets.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Eli Lustgarten from Longbow. Please proceed.
Eli Lustgarten:
One of clarification. Your guidance has share count of 140.8, I guess you spent sort of on the $1.4 billion so far. Is the assumption that you are not going to buy back stock more than creep for the rest of the year? Or you just haven't put it in there and that is something we should take out [indiscernible] 600 million plus.
Tom Williams:
Eli, it is Tom, yes, we did not put it into our forecast. But you can rest assured that we're still committed to the $2 billion to $3 billion of share repurchase over the timeframe that we communicated. And I would look for us to -- you will see us buy opportunistically and I would look for you to see us doing that going forward here.
Eli Lustgarten:
So, will go down if you do execute?
Tom Williams:
Right.
Eli Lustgarten:
Now can we talk a little bit about your assumption for Rest of World profitability? You have got the margins going up anywhere from 50 to 100 basis points and what is likely to be relatively stagnant kind of volume or so. Is that a beneficiary of this program that you have announced this year? And is that where -- one of the points we're trying to find out is the $70 million benefit you are getting, where would we see that? Most of it is going to be International or is it split between International and Rest of World and North America?
Jon Marten:
Yes, Eli, Jon here. Overall the benefits of the program we're going to see worldwide. This is a business process simplification and it is going to have an impact on our margins worldwide. So I think we will see equal implications for North America as we will for our Industrial International businesses there.
Eli Lustgarten:
And is that the source of the improved margins in Rest of World or is there something else happening?
Jon Marten:
It is one of the key factors for our improved margins. But we're continuing to look as our market starts to stabilize to be able to generate a margin in Europe much higher than we have been experiencing here in FY '15 and so we've been, as you know, determined to do that for the last couple years. And we start to see improvement in our European margins as all of the simplification and all of the prior restructuring take hold in our cost structure there. And so, we will see it in Europe, we will also see improvements in our Asian businesses too. But I don't want to give you that that is 100% of the driven increases in our margins. This also has a lot to do with our Win Strategy, our ability to do pricing right, to do buying right, to recover from some of the translational and transactional impacts of currency headwinds that we're feeling in some of the countries in Europe. And so, there is a whole host of activities that we're working on very [Technical Difficulty] here to help drive our margins.
Operator:
Your next question comes from Andy Casey from Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.
Andy Casey:
A couple questions, the first one is kind of asking something that has been asked a couple times before at least a different way. Can you help us understand what sort of benefit from internal restructuring realignment and early retirement initiatives are included in the $0.19 operating profit increased shown on slide 16?
Jon Marten:
Okay, let me just make sure that I am tracking there with you. Yes, well, listen, in that $0.19 it has got all of the impact of the simplification. Keep in mind that our revenues are going down. So we're showing increased operating earnings on lower as reported earnings. And part of the driving force for us to be able to increase our earnings in a lower sales environment which I realize is at first glance completely counterintuitive, is our ability to do the simplification program the way that we have outlined it, as well as reap the benefits from the prior restructuring that we have done, the early retirement that we have done here in that fourth quarter of this year. And that is the source of the $0.19. And again, just to remind you, I know you know this very well Andy, but this is a compilation of all of the programs from a bottoms up perspective in the company. And this is not just one program, we're making it sound like it is one program and it is externally. But inside this is many, many, many programs at the divisional in group level within the company and this is how it gets rolled up here in the company when we actually ended up doing our guidance. And that is a big basis for the $0.19 that we're showing on that slide. So, I don't want to give you the impression that this is just a big tops down look at the forecast for FY '16. This is something that has come up from the divisions like we normally do. And this is the result of that process as we start to review it and make adjustments to our operating cadence around the world.
Andy Casey:
If you ex out the initiatives that have yet to be done, some of the initiatives you announced today.
Jon Marten:
Yes.
Andy Casey:
What sort of benefit is just carryover from what has already been done?
Jon Marten:
Well, we have got a $50 million carryover from the effort that we had put together here in FY '15. And that's really the benefit that we're going to see next year and that will be bleeding right into the cost structure in FY '16. So that is one number that we're very firm about, we feel we have a lot of confidence in and that is the number that is rolled up into the forecast that we're getting from the team.
Andy Casey:
And then in the first half/second half outlook I just want to make sure if there is any items on top of the revenue outlook by market that you kind of gave. Does the first half outlook include any inventory reduction actions, either on the corporate level or in your distribution channel, that when you look into the second half to expect that to normalize?
Tom Williams:
As I mentioned earlier, for the first six months we're assuming some destocking in our distribution channel. So that is part of the headwind we will have in the first half of the year from a revenue standpoint.
Andy Casey:
And then one last one if I could fit it in on the Aerospace back to I think it was Ann's question. Some other participants have described some distribution channel choppiness. Are you seeing any of that at this point? It doesn't sound like your order intake is suggesting that on the commercial side.
Jon Marten:
No, we're really not, Andy. We have not a booming commercial aftermarket, but we have steady commercial aftermarket experience here in our FY '15 and that is what we're expecting here for FY '16. Now from quarter to quarter of course there can be some issues, but we didn't experience in Q4 and we're not planning on anything unusual other than the normal seasonal patterns that we will see in FY '16 as we saw in FY '15.
Operator:
Your next question comes from John Inch from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
John Inch:
Jon, you mentioned the $50 million carry-forward from I guess your 2015 initiatives into 2016 and you also mentioned $70 million. Does the $70 million map to the $100 million of charges you are taking? So that would imply, based on what you said, $14 million or 20% savings in the first half and $56 million or the remainder 80% in the second half? So basically we're looking at an incremental $120 million with that split out? Is that the benefit for 2016, is that the way to think about it?
Jon Marten:
I think you are right, Jon. I am going to have to take a look at my numbers here right now. We have got savings of $24 million that are related to the $100 million in the first half. And we have got a savings of $46 million in the second half related to the backend of a $70 million of the $100 million cost. So the total cost for the program in FY '16 is $100 million, the total savings in FY '16 is $70 million. So there is a total net cost of $30 million which equates to $0.15. That $0.15 is built into our guidance.
John Inch:
But a total restructuring benefit excluding the cost of $120 million, right, because of $50 million that you said was--?
Jon Marten:
That is correct.
John Inch:
Okay. And then you were kind enough to give us your first half/second half assumptions. What would be your organic growth assumptions, Jon, first half versus second half? Is there any way to provide a little color there? To get to Tom's point about flat for the year?
Jon Marten:
Yes, I'm going to just give you a rough order of magnitude on the organic growth in the second half of FY '16 as part of our guidance is about 2.5% organic growth on, of course, much different comps that we're talking about right now at that time that we're projecting for our FY '16 Q3 and Q4.
John Inch:
With a little bit of recovery excluding comps baked into that I am assuming based on all of the commentary you've made in this call. Is that fair?
Jon Marten:
That is right. That dovetails into the comments that we were hearing from Tom and Lee and our slow but sequential pick up starting in the second half -- very slow, very modest.
John Inch:
And can I just follow up on the $100 million? You guys had issues in Europe for many years, you weren't the only company, you kind of bit the bullet in 2014 and took some very substantial outsized restructuring. And here we're heading into 2016 and there is another $100 million which encompasses Europe. So really I guess my question is of the $100 million, how much of that would be structural versus variable? Right, so reduction in force in response to weak markets? And then what is it exactly that you are doing in Europe that you didn't already do through actions in 2014 and 2015? I'm just try to understand kind of what --.
Jon Marten:
Sure.
John Inch:
So what is really happening here to get it to the $100 million?
Tom Williams:
So, John, this is Tom. There is a difference between what we did before. Before we focused on footprint optimization and classic plant consolidations and those type of things. The simplification initiatives which is, as you know, 60% of the total restructuring cost, is focused more on organization and process optimization looking at revenue complexity. And that is global, it is not picking on Europe. This is 50-50, we're going to have half of these actions in North America and half internationally. And that half international will cover Latin America, Asia-Pacific and Europe because these processes are issues around the world. And we're just taking a fresh look at it around revenue complexity organizational complexity, division consolidations and bureaucracy. And I can tell you right now this has got a lot of energy behind it, a lot of enthusiasm. It is not easy and it is tough decisions, but there is a lot of interest because when you do these things right you are going to be faster to serve customers and it is going to enable growth for the company.
John Inch:
It really sounds, Tom, as if this was probably tied to your own succession as CEO and just kind of a refresh of Win for the most part versus just making sure that there was nothing in the quarter you said, uh oh, you know what, May is really tough, we're just going to have to get out and bite the bullet and take a lot more restructuring. I am assuming that most of this, call it -- you could call it almost strategic -- is that a fair statement? Or is there really just kind of almost balance based on obviously the short cycle economy which is pretty tough right now.
Tom Williams:
Well, John, I think you nailed it. This is something that both Lee and I and Jon have talked about knowing when the succession was going to happen that this was something strategically that we did want to look at. And this is really two parts -- we're going to do the normal adjustments to the market that we have always done, the classic restructuring realignment and on top of it we're going to do these strategic things which is going to have a much more efficient cost structure and a much more -- much better service model for our customers. And that is just one element of the refreshed Win Strategy. Everybody on the phone, you get a chance to hear a lot more detail. So we called this one out the simplification piece because it is a big part of this year's operating plan. But there is a lot of other things we want to talk to you about all around growing the company best as the market and expanding margins which we'll give you a lot more color at IR day here in September.
Jon Marten:
Okay, well, thanks, John. And this concludes our Q&A and our earnings call for today. Thank you to everybody for joining us. Robin will be available throughout the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. Thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect. And have a great day.
Executives:
Robin Davenport - Vice President, Corporate Finance Thomas Williams - Chief Executive Officer Lee Banks - President and Chief Operating Officer Jon Marten - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration
Analysts:
Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research Group Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse John Inch - Deutsche Bank Eli Lustgarten - Longbow Research Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Joe Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Mig Dobre - Robert W. Baird Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Joel Tiss - BMO Capital Markets Steve Volkmann - Jefferies & Co.
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2015 Parker Hannifin Corporation earnings conference call. My name is Alex and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session toward the end of this conference. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Ms. Robin Davenport, Vice President, Corporate Finance. Please proceed.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Alex. Good morning and welcome to Parker Hannifin’s third quarter fiscal year 2015 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; President and Chief Operating Officer, Lee Banks; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. Today’s presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company’s investor information website at www.phstock.com for one year following today’s call. On Slide 2, you’ll find the company’s Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning’s press release and are posted on Parker’s website, at www.phstock.com. Today’s call agenda appears on Slide 3. To begin, our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams will provide highlights for the third quarter. And following Tom’s comments, I’ll provide a review of the company’s third quarter performance together with the revised guidance for fiscal year 2015. Tom will provide a few summary comments and then we’ll open the call for a question-and-answer session. So at this time, I’ll turn it over to Tom and ask that you refer to Slide #4.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you. Robin. And welcome to everybody on the call. We certainly appreciate your participation today and your interest in Parker. I’ll take a few minutes to share our perspectives on the quarter, some near-term market trends and our outlook. Also we’ll briefly discuss where we are in the process of refreshing our Win Strategy to take Parker’s performance to the next level. First, a few comments on our third quarter
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Tom. At this time, please refer to Slide #5 and I will begin addressing earnings per share for the quarter. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.06 versus $1.88 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of $0.18 or 10%. This excludes the restructuring, which originally planned at $0.08 was actually $0.04 in the quarter and compares to $0.28 for the same quarter last year. Moving to Slide 6, you’ll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.88 for the third quarter and fiscal year 2014 to $2.06 for the third quarter of this year. Income of $0.32 was realized in other, as a result of currency gains. The most significant portion is attributed to the un-pegging of the Swiss franc to the euro during the quarter. This resulted in an unexpected one-time intercompany settlement gain. Together with currency transaction gains realized from the netting of our international intercompany balances. Additionally, the impact of fewer shares outstanding equated to an increase of $0.14 per share offsets to adjusted per share income included lower segment operating income $0.18 per share driven by the strengthened U.S. dollar currency translation, increased interest expense of $0.07. And higher comparative corporate G&A that equated to $0.03 per share. Moving to Slide 7, with the review of total company’s sales and segment operating margin, total company organic sales in the third quarter was flat at 0.02% over the same quarter last year. There was minimal contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisitions. Currency impact was higher than planned equating to a negative impact and reported sales of $205 million or 6.1% in the quarter. As shown on the bottom of this slide, total company’s segment operating margins for the third quarter adjusted for restructuring costs incurred in the quarter were 14.4% versus 14.7% for the same quarter last year. Restructuring costs incurred in the quarter were $8 million, versus $60 million last year. The lower adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $456 million, versus $494 million last year, reflects the meaningful impact of the strengthened U.S. dollar against foreign currency. Moving to Slide 8, I’ll discuss the business segments starting with Diversified Industrial North America. For the third quarter, North American organic sales were flat as compared to the same quarter last year. There was no impact from acquisitions and a negative impact from currency of 1.1% in the quarter. Adjusted operating income for the third quarter was $237 million, as compared to $243 million driven by the impact of currency translation and unfavorable mix as a result of softening trends in key end-markets. I’ll continue with the Diversified Industrial segment on Slide 9. Organic sales for the quarter in the Industrial International segment decreased by 2%, while acquisitions made minimal contributions currency negatively impacted sales by 13.6%. Adjusting for restructuring costs operating margins for the third quarter were 12.7% as compared to 13.7% in the prior year which reflects the impact of the strengthened U.S. dollar. Restructuring expenses in the quarter were $7 million, as compared to $59 million in the prior year. I will now move to Slide 10 to review the Aerospace Systems segment. Organic revenues increased 5.7% for the quarter. With no impact from acquisitions currency posted a modest negative impact of 0.8%. The sales growth for the period was driven by higher commercial OEM and military aftermarket business. Operating margins for the quarter increased 120 basis points from 11.7% to 12.9%, due primarily to higher margin aftermarket sales volume and lower development costs. Now moving to Slide 11, with the detail of orders, changes by segment, just as a reminder, Parker orders represented trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures in currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while Aerospace Systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. Total orders shifted to a negative 4% for the quarter end, reflecting the swift downturn in oil and gas, construction and agriculture, which represents three major industrial end-markets for Parker. Diversified Industrial North American orders for the current ended decreased to negative 6%. Diversified Industrial International orders decreased to negative 3% for the quarter. Aerospace systems orders decreased to negative 3% for the quarter, against notably high prior year comparable. On Slide 12, we review the cash flow from operations. Year-to-date, cash flow from operating activities was $791 million, or 8.3% of sales. The significant uses of cash in the third quarter were returns to our shareholders of $565 million. Share repurchases totaled $477 million and dividend payments were $88 million. Moving to Slide 13, for the revised guidance for fiscal year 2015, guidance is being provided on an adjusted basis. Sales growth for the full year is adjusted for the joint venture with GE Aviation that commenced at the beginning of Q2 of fiscal 2014. Segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude restructuring charges and additional expense estimated for the voluntary retirement program to be incurred in Q4 2015. Beginning with sales, total adjusted sales are expected to be in the range of a negative 4% to negative 3% as compared to the prior year. This is a reduction from previous guidance provided at the end of last quarter due to the negative impact our strengthened U.S. dollar, mainly the increase in the strength of the dollar versus the euro realized during the quarter. We calculated the impact of currency to spot rate as of March 31, 2015 and we have held those rates steady as we estimate the resulting year-over-year impact for the upcoming Q4 of 2015. Adjusted organic growth at the midpoint is just under 1% with minimal impact from acquisition carryover. Currency in the guidance negatively impacts sales by 4% which is nearly all related to Industrial International. For total Parker adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 14.9% and 15.1%. This compares to 14.4% for fiscal year 2014 on an adjusted basis. The guidance for below the line items, which includes corporate administrative expenses, interest and other is $395 million for the year at the midpoint. This is lower than the previous guidance due to the third quarter favorable currency-driven adjustments. The full-year tax rate is projected at 26.5% which is a modest reduction from prior guidance. The average number of fully diluted shares outstanding used in the full-year guidance is 145.6 million shares. And on the topic of share repurchase as communicated during last quarter’s earning call we remain committed to the $2 billion to $3 billion share repurchase announced in October. To-date share repurchases spent totaled 67% of the low end of the announced repurchase program and we anticipate that the balance of the commitment for repurchase will be made discretionarily over the remaining 18 months. For the full year, revised guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis is reduced to a range of $7.55 to $7.75 or $7.65 at the midpoint. This guidance excludes restructuring and voluntary retirement program expenses of approximately $60 million to be incurred in fiscal year 2015. The effect of this restructuring on EPS is approximately $0.30 for the full year, consisting of $0.17 for restructuring and $0.13 for voluntary retirement program expenses. Despite the reduced projected restructuring expense previously guided savings of $23 million associated with the restructuring spend remains unchanged. Savings associated with the voluntary retirement program have not been forecasted for Q4 fiscal year 2015. On Slide 14 you’ll find a reconciliation of the major components of our revised Q4 fiscal year 2015 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.86 from the prior guidance of $2.43 at the midpoint. Modest increases include $0.02 from a reduced tax rate and $0.01 from favorable reduced other expense. Key components of the decrease include a $0.38 reduction in segment operating income from translational currency resulting from the strengthened U.S. dollar and $0.22 reduction in segment operating income due to unfavorable mix and volume reduction as a result of the softening of the key end-market. Please remember that forecasts excludes any acquisitions and divestitures that may be made during the fourth quarter. For consistency, we ask that you exclude restructuring expenses from your published estimates. Now this concludes my prepared comments. And Tom, I will turn the call back to you for your summary comments.
Thomas Williams:
Thanks, Robin. As you can see, near-term challenges are shaping our immediate actions to respond to meet our financial commitments for this year. Longer term, we see a promising future and many opportunities to drive even higher levels of performance for Parker. I know there are many employees who call in to listen to this discussion and I’d like to thank you for your efforts and express my appreciation for all of your hard work. I’m very confident we can build on our past successes and continue to produce strong shareholder returns. At this time, we’re ready to take questions. So, Alex, if you’d like to give the instruction that will be great.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Hi, good morning, guys.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just so, I guess, to parse out some of the end-market performance you guys mentioned, if you could just, I guess, first, comment on oil, and then if you had to think about the major drivers, whether it is de-stock in some of your broader distribution, oil weakness, or the strong US dollar impacting US manufacturing in general, if you could just kind of talk through some of those items and what you saw in the quarter.
Lee Banks:
Hi, Josh. This is Lee. What I’ll do if it’s okay with you, I’ll just kind of walk you through the different regions and give you some color. I think before we do that I don’t want to be overly dramatic in any of these end-markets. Remember, currency was the big driver of top line here. So organically we were flat for the most part. So starting with North America, I think the headline story there that you mentioned is oil and gas. And for us it’s really upstream land-based oil and gas. We’ve seen a rapid decline in global oil prices which really led to a quick deceleration in CapEx across that sector. We’ve notice that a big onshore rig utilization down year-over-year, which has put a lot of on some of the OEM customer servicing that sector. So those OEM customers continue to build but at a much slower rate than they have in the past. Our MRO and services business continue to be okay. We’re in touch with some of the OEM. First fit, it is down, where we’ve got MRO opportunity, that kind of continues to be good and poses opportunities for us. We talked about mining in the past that continues to be flat to down, we don’t see a recovery there soon. I think one bright spot when the Americas really comes to the energy markets, we’ve seen this around traditional and renewable power gen. There has been an accelerated de-commissioning and coal-fired power plants and what we have seen is an increase in gas-fired plants along with solar and wind capacity. So net-net, there’s not new capacity being added but the switch has created some opportunity for us, not only on first fit but for our MRO distribution. And in concert with that, energy storage continues to gain momentum with battery technology advancing. We started a business unit in that area with some significant orders this quarters, so that’s a real promising trend for us as we move forward. I think some other end markets in North America, heavy truck continues to be good. The line of sight we have for FY 2015 is strong with the backlog and from every indication we have FY 2016 continues to be very encouraging. Distribution in North America, I would say as a whole remains reasonably healthy. Now, that depends what distribution you touch and where it’s really focused on oil and gas they’ve seen softness. But on the flip side, there has been positive on the MRO markets really in plant automotive and energy. So year-over-year I would call it about neutral when it comes to North America distribution with some plusses and some minuses. Okay, just turn into Europe. Europe by and large continues to tread water, I guess, is a good way of saying it. We did some see some volume in margin mix degradation in the quarter, really we saw that in agricultural business, truck, oil and gas and construction. We did have quite a few oil and gas projects moved out or pushed out which were bound for the Middle East, so hopefully those will come through in later quarters. We have heard a lot of optimism from the export markets, significantly industrial machinery. We were just at the Hanover show. There is a lot of positive sentiment, but I’ll be candid with you, we haven’t seen that translate yet. So time will tell and see what happens there. Turning to Latin America, obviously being impacted by the recessions in Brazil and Argentina. Negative year-over-year growth in industrial production, we are seeing significant pullbacks in heavy truck, our large OEM customers, with plant shutdowns and workforce reductions. When it comes to offshore oil and gas in Latin America, really not much happening with what’s happened with Petrobras. Some pre-salt projects have been postponed due to cash shortages and other issues. So MRO services are good, as I mentioned before, but year-over-year growth there is not there. And then lastly turning Asia, I guess the first conversation is about China. I continue to characterize that as slow industrial production growth year-over-year. Having said that, we do see positive impact in our distribution business. Some of this is growing municipal projects, but a lot of it has to do with just growing our distribution in general, so we get a little bit of benefit there. Some positives are medical equipment manufacturing, heavy truck, and power generation really run alternate energy. And we’ve talked in the past about the contraction in construction equipment and mining, and if anything, that has taken a step down, it certainly hasn’t gotten any better. And I would say lastly just talking about Asia that a bright spot is Southeast Asia continues to grow. It’s a relatively small base for us, but growing quickly. A lot of infrastructure investment, agricultural investment in really energy. So all our people are - and teams are focused with our customers. This is a great opportunity for us to shine with these end markets when we have softness like this and it gives us a great opportunity to create more value for our end customers.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
That’s very helpful. Thanks, Lee. And I guess if I just had a one more follow-up on that, did you guys see any de-stock in the quarter anywhere? Any quantification that would be helpful and can you talk about the cadence and anything you are seeing into April?
Thomas Williams:
Hey, Josh, this is Tom. We did see some de-stocking primarily like Lee was referring to distributors that would service those end markets that were the softest oil and gas, construction, ag, and that would be OEM channel, as well as distribution. I think it’s going to take a couple quarters to play through. Obviously, we will stay close to it, stay close to our customers and our distributors and give you better insight in the August call. But I do think there is some more destocking that needs to play through, that’s part of what you are seeing reflected in our updated guidance. And as far as current trends, the April trends, that’s what’s in our guidance.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Gotcha. All right. Thanks, guys.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Jamie Cook:
Hi. Good morning. I guess my question relates to, given the weakness that you are seeing in the market and as we’re approaching 2016, both Tom and Lee, I know you went through some major restructuring actions sort of last year, is there anything sort of larger that you are contemplating right now, like another round of restructuring actions, just given the weakness that you are seeing in the markets? And then I guess just my second question is, given the weakness in the markets, are you seeing valuations come down on any acquisition opportunities and how you are thinking about acquisitions in light of weaker markets? Would you be more opportunistic, because that could potentially help 2016? Thanks.
Thomas Williams:
Hey, Jamie, it’s Tom. I’ll try to address both of those. First, on the restructuring, you saw that we announced $0.13 for a voluntary retirement program. And that’s an initial first step we’re looking at is really enterprise focus and efficiency. It’s really a new initiative or a continuing initiative to focus on improving our overhead costs, the overhead burden to the company, so we’re working on that. You’ll get more insights on the details of that in the August call, but this was an initial first step. We thought it was a constructive first step offering a voluntary retirement program. We do think there is extra efficiencies we can get through our overhead structure, so that would be one aspect of it. Certainly, in the near term, we are doing the normal, run the business adjustments that we would normally do with short works, reducing temps, all those kind of things. But the retirement program and the overhead efficiencies is an additional step on top of the market adjustments we will be making. On the acquisition side, haven’t seen valuations turn down yet, but we are very active and we’ve got reviews going monthly, reviews going quarterly with all the groups. We are starting to see activity pick up. Our desire is just like it has been historically to have 4 to 5 points of growth via acquisitions. You are right; in today’s climate with softness in end markets, this is an opportune time for us to add the acquisitions and we’ve got a great track record historically of being the consolidator of choice within our space and we are going to continue that. So we are very interested. Acquisitions are - it’s hard to predict. They are lumpy in nature as far as coming out of the pipeline, but the activity is certainly there.
Jamie Cook:
And sorry, just one follow-up on the portfolio. Are you considering - are you and Lee both considering any, as you look at Parker’s organic growth, I would say investors have been disappointed over the past couple of years. A lot of it is macro, I get that, but are you considering any portfolio changes within Parker, any potential divestitures of sort of lower growth or commoditized businesses, or is that off the table?
Thomas Williams:
No, I mean, I would say a couple things on the growth side. One, we always look at portfolio continuously through the business cycle. And you’ve seen us in the past make adjustments, so that’s something we always take a look at and there is nothing major at this point, but we always look at it and certainly we would update you if we had any changes. But on the gross side, in addition to acquisitions, Lee touched on a little bit at the end of his end markets, this is a great time for us to take share. We are only 11% share of the total motion control space, and we’ve got all of our teams around the world focused on trying to gain share by account by account, market by market, so that would be one aspect of it. The other part is, we’ve rolled out a new growth incentive plan starting this year with the full impact of that being next year and it’s a growth multiplier on top of our annual incentive plan, which is the RONA plan, which some of you may be familiar with our RONA plan, which is done division by division, goes all the way from the general manager down to the operator on the floor. But what we’ve added is an incentive, if you grow faster than the market, and we are defined on the market as the median of our proxy peers, there is an additional kicker to your RONA and a very nice kicker that really accelerates and encourages growth, but also if you grow slower than the market, there is a negative consequence where there is actually a deduct to your annual incentive. So I think that comes into full play next year, so I think that will drive the right kind of behavior incentive. And I think you are familiar with our - the key things we are going after with the Win Strategy on growth, those continue. But I think the other aspect would be services. Our e-business, the Parker.com channel, while very young as far as from a commercial standpoint, I’m very pleased with the progress the team has made there. We have a much better - from a customer friendliness standpoint and feedback. That website has improved dramatically, so attracting, finding, helping customers buy a product and then service them I think our website has clearly improved dramatically. So that in addition to other service things on the asset integrity and part tracking, so there’s a number of things besides I will call the traditional growth playbook that we are doing to help grow organically. But right now, I would love to do more acquisitions and we’re certainly going to focus on that as well.
Jamie Cook:
All right, thanks. I will get back in queue.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Inch with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
John Inch:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, John.
John Inch:
Good morning. Did any of the verticals that we talked about, did that - any of them actually sequentially improve, or was this a matter of ag, construction, oil and gas got bad and the others also sort of softened, but just softened by less? And I guess if you could parse your answer in both North America and Europe, that would be great.
Lee Banks:
John, this is Lee. I would say sequentially improved. Heavy trucks in the transportation improved sequentially. Power generation sequentially and these are really North America-centric what I’m giving you right now. There are some smaller ones here, semiconductor sequentially. I would say flat would be areas like process industries had been flat sequentially. Rail has been flat sequentially, and I think that has to do probably with what’s happening with the oil markets right now, and then areas like forestry. What has been negative sequentially are areas that we talked about, oil and gas, mining to name a couple.
John Inch:
And Lee, would that read through in terms of what you just described, also would that map to your orders? In other words, you are sort of giving me the trend in the quarter; what about the mapping to the orders? Was there any differences there or would you (multiple speakers)?
Lee Banks:
John, I would say that is pretty consistent with the order trend.
John Inch:
And that I’m assuming is North America. What about Europe? You are a big company in Europe. Did you find similar trends, or is it a little bit different?
Lee Banks:
I would say similar. Distribution was okay. That’s really driven by MRO sequentially in Europe, machine tools was up. I’m always careful, because when we talk sequentially, I’m talking about our Q2 versus Q3, Q2 is such a soft quarter. So I don’t want to make too much of these sequential numbers, if that makes sense to you, John.
John Inch:
Yes, well, I was trying to put into a context of what you normally would have expected to see sequentially considering, to your point, you’ve got some seasonality and year-over-year comparison, so I think I get it?
Thomas Williams:
Go ahead.
Lee Banks:
Sequentially, we would always want to see Q3 bigger than Q2 I think, which was really - which we didn’t expect was the deceleration in upstream oil and gas. We would not have expected that going into Q3.
John Inch:
And you have said oil and gas is 6% of the company. The one thing, of course, that we knew was going to happen not pertaining to Parker specifically was the derivative impact of oil-producing states like Texas, the Dakotas, et cetera. I mean, is that what you also realized, so directly it was 6%, but the indirect perhaps was more broadly felt and is there any way to kind of put a handle around that?
Lee Banks:
Absolutely, the derivatives of oil and gas had a negative impact. It is really hard to attach a number to it. We work hard to attach the 6% oil and gas, so they try and get all the periphery industries is difficult, but you could definitely see it throughout the markets in the channel.
John Inch:
Maybe just one last one, if these trends don’t really change much, which could be a scenario, as we roll into 2016, the one thing that seems striking is that there is going to be some relatively tough compares right, in the September and December quarters for 2016 and then, of course, we’ve got global line stuff this quarter. Is there any reason to think that 2016 the first-half is actually going to improve versus the current trend based on your thinking today?
Thomas Williams:
Hey, John. On 2016 is probably too early for us to comment. We’re just now starting to roll up numbers for 2016, and we haven’t even had our initial meetings. So what we’ve got in our guidance and the comments we’ve made are Q4. I did mention obviously the de-stocking we thought will continue for a couple quarters, but it’s too early for us to give you an input for 2016, and we’ll certainly give you a lot of detail when we do the August update.
John Inch:
Okay. Got it. Thank you very much.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, John.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities. Please proceed.
Eli Lustgarten:
Good morning, everyone.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Eli.
Eli Lustgarten:
Can we get a little bit into the fourth-quarter guidance because, when I look at it, if I’m interpreting correctly, the North American sales decline is in line with the order decline at the mid-single digit, but it looks like the diversified rest of the world international has a huge decline and I assume when you start talking 20% plus, you start talking about at least 15% plus is currency and then it’s a bigger decline than the order weakness we saw. So it just looks like there is a very, very weak fourth quarter coming in international. Can you give us some color on what is going on in the two markets?
Robin Davenport:
So, Eli, you are right, I mean, the significant driver, probably two-thirds of that is related to the currency translation. Likewise, we are also seeing that there is unfavorable mix and some volume impact as reflected through the orders as well as a result of this softness in the key end markets. So those are really the primary things that are going on with the change in revenues and then the follow-on impact on the operating margins.
Eli Lustgarten:
But it is a very, very weak international quarter that is coming, particularly versus a tough comparison last year. Is that fair?
Robin Davenport:
Certainly, but again a big part of that is on the currency translation.
Eli Lustgarten:
And can you talk a bit about what’s happening in pricing across the marketplace, both here and particularly outside North America on the products? I mean, there’s not much inflation, but in these kind of demand scenarios, it seems that pricing is going to get a bit complicated across the board. You guys do better in pricing than anybody else in the industry, but can you give us some idea of what you are facing at this point?
Lee Banks:
Yes, Eli, it’s Lee. I would say pricing, it’s a challenging environment to say the least with the - with currency movements, et cetera. Having said that, net-net, we still are positive year-over- year from a currency standpoint - but I mean from a pricing standpoint, but it is something that we work regionally and through all our channels every single week and every single day.
Eli Lustgarten:
And I guess the assumption is that this fourth quarter is going to be tough. And you don’t expect much business conditions other than seasonally and maybe into some restocking as we go - as we enter the second-half of calendar 2015. Is that a fair way of characterizing what is going on?
Lee Banks:
I think that’s a fair way of characterizing it.
Eli Lustgarten:
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Eli.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, good morning, guys.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Hammond:
Hey, just wanted to come back to, Robin, your mix comments, what’s really driving that? Is it certain end markets or weaker distribution? And are you - did you see that in the quarter and in the order outlook?
Robin Davenport:
So, yes, Jeff, it basically links back to the key end markets that we talked about where we saw that softening, so ag, construction and oil and gas. So those are the big impacters there.
Jeff Hammond:
So those just have better mix ultimately and so that’s driving the negative mix in the margins?
Robin Davenport:
Certainly on the oil and gas side in particular, yes.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. Is there a way to quantify kind of the magnitude of these order declines in those three markets you called out, I mean, are we seeing like down 15% to 20%, or…?
Jon Marten:
Jeff, this is Jon. In terms of the magnitude of the order decline again, I think you’ve got a couple of things that are going on here. The first one we’ve talked about, oil and gas and we’ve talked about ag. These are relatively small parts of our - of the total company, and the decline that we’ve seen there is in line with what we’ve seen with the macro conditions around the world. We’re not really in a position to be able to give you an exact number, but they were material enough that we thought that we should just make sure that we mentioned it to give you additional color. So they’ve impacted things and as Lee and Tom have talked about, there have been other markets that have been strengthening, including aerospace and heavy-duty truck. And, again, when we’re talking about what we are seeing internationally, of course, keep in mind that when we’re giving guidance, we’re using the currency rate at March - at the end of March. And so that’s the lion’s share of what’s happening with those end markets. It’s not the contraction of them, it is the impact that we are seeing from currency due to the sharp decline, in terms of the increased strength of the dollar here for the quarter.
Jeff Hammond:
Okay. And then just - go ahead. So just finally on the M&A pipeline, it still sounds pretty lean, so maybe just speak to kind of the bias on buyback given kind of the lean M&A. Does that kind of bias you towards that high end of the $2 billion to $3 billion?
Thomas Williams:
Jeff, this is Tom. We are committed to the $2 billion to $3 billion. I would say that our preference is we would really like to do more acquisitions. The output right now, we haven’t had any output - but the activity is increasing significantly within the company. The cadence around it, and the number of properties that we are looking at are all increasing, so I’m encouraged by that. Like I mentioned earlier, it is lumpy and it’s hard to predict the output, but our goal is to still have acquisitions 4% to 5%. So that being said, the ideal mix would be we would do $2 billion approximately of the share repurchase in the billion of acquisitions over that time period that we announced. But if the acquisitions do not materialize then we will make up the difference with a share repurchase.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Joe Ritchie:
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Thomas Williams:
Good morning, Joe.
Joe Ritchie:
Tom, your comment on overhead simplification I thought was interesting. I went back and did some analysis and looked at the past 20 years. I noticed just as a percentage of sales that you really hadn’t seen much of a change in your corporate expense again as a percentage of sales. And just given the amount of growth that you’ve had in the business, I would’ve assumed that there was a little bit more operating leverage. And so I am just curious, how are you thinking about the aspirational target on what you can do on the simplification side to get your cost structure down?
Thomas Williams:
Yes, and we do have very much - we have a keen interest in this area, we are looking at overheads across the entire company, so it would be corporate at the group level and at the divisions and looking at it in aggregate and it’s really all about trying to simplify the company, have it more focused, have it be more efficient to have less of an overhead burn for every dollar of revenue that we take into the company. This is going to take multiple reviews internally, we have a number of them happening in May and June, so it’s early days. The early retirement, we felt was a really constructive first step that would be attractive to potential employees, as we try to move towards becoming more efficient from an overhead structure, even more efficient. I would say we have done historically a pretty good job there, but I think as a team collectively we are looking for opportunities to do better there. So I am not ready to give you what we think is going to come out of that, but we will in August. We will give you the details of what we think we are going to yield from this and then of course what the potential cost might be there.
Joe Ritchie:
That’s helpful. I guess maybe one follow-up question on the margin ramp, especially in aero, in the fourth quarter. I’m just curious like whether there is any one-time items that are really going to benefit the margins in the quarter. I know that last year you had about a 350 basis point benefit from a claims settlement and so it looks like the margin guidance implies a pretty significant ramp. I am just curious if there’s - what is driving that ramp in 4Q?
Jon Marten:
Yes, Joe, Jon here. I think the ramp in Q4 is something that we’ve seen historically. You are right, this time last year, there was a significant settlement on a few contracts. We typically are negotiating all year long and quite often, we will able to settle some outstanding either assertions that we have or issues that come up between ourselves and our suppliers, or our customers and so we have seen that pattern in last few years. There is not one particular thing though that is driving this result that we are seeing in Q4 as part of our guidance. It is more of a general bottoms-up review of each one of the operations and this is what we came out here, which will continue to bode well for us going forward.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. And maybe one last question on the restructuring benefits. What are you guys expecting for the benefits in 4Q and how do we think about 2016 at this point given all the restructuring actions you have taken thus far year-to-date?
Jon Marten:
Yes, we want to - we have an estimate in for Q4 for the restructuring as it relates to the voluntary retirement program. We want to - before we commit to a savings number, we want to roll up all of the FY 2016 and we want to make sure that we understand who and how the take-up rate on the program is executed during the quarter. And so we won’t know that, until we come out with our update in August, so we won’t be able to give you a really good idea of something that is factual until August. And at that time, we will be very detailed in terms of what we expect in terms of the savings from the voluntary retirement program.
Joe Ritchie:
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Joe.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Robert Baird. Please proceed.
Mig Dobre:
Good morning, everyone.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Mig.
Mig Dobre:
Sticking with international, one of the things that really surprised me is really your updated guidance. You have reduced your margin guidance by 150 basis points for fiscal 2016 after only one quarter, if you would, worth of changes in terms of end markets in the environment. This is well below your 15% target after roughly two years of restructuring. So If or one am a little bit confused as to how I should be thinking about sustainable margins for this business going forward. Any help here would be great.
Jon Marten:
Two-thirds of the reduction in the guidance internationally relates to what we are seeing from a currency standpoint. Now we have seen such sharp currency trends that it takes - there’s a matter of timing that is involved here, Mig. We are very optimistic long term. We will be back up at the 15% plus rate that we expect from those operations, but there is a timing issue where we’ve got to make sure that we are keeping up with the trends in the marketplace. So that’s about two-thirds of what is happening with the international margins. The other one-third of it is really being impacted by what we are seeing on the ground in some of the end markets that Lee and Tom talked about those end markets that they called out are unfortunately for us having an impact on the mix and because of that, that mix issue, what we are seeing a very slight degradation for us in those margins. Historically, over the years, our margins for international as reflected in our guidance is 13.4%, and we are really seeing a slow ramp up to the 15% that we were talking about this time last year. All the savings that we are getting from the very successful restructuring program that we executed on last year are just being masked by what we are seeing in the currency and then these new trends and some of these end markets. So we are not backing off our determination to make those businesses 15% plus going forward here. It is just a confluence of events and that is really impacting us. And like I say, almost two-thirds of it clearly related just to the currency and the impact there as the strong dollar impacts the translation of our earnings outside the U.S. into our income statement.
Mig Dobre:
All right, I appreciate that. Then it is fair to say basically as we are looking out that we should be thinking about currency impact really as well as mix and maybe try to think about scaling up margins as these effects become diminished as fiscal 2016 would progress. Is that a fair way to think about it?
Jon Marten:
I think so, yes. I think that is very, very, very true.
Mig Dobre:
All right. And then my last question is on aerospace. An order decline here, and your orders are on an LTM basis, I think this is the first decline since the Great Recession. Can this business grow in the next 12 months?
Jon Marten:
Yes, Mig. Absolutely. Please do not read too much into that. We were - had a bad comps here for this quarter. We’ve got built-in growth rates due to all of our wins in excess of 5% per year and that has not changed. There was a significant - we were up mid-double digits this time last year. A lot of those orders related to FY 2016 again because of the long term nature of the business. So I can go through that with you in more detail, but we are not concerned about the impact of those order rates on the long term. We still feel very confident in our long term growth assumptions that we’ve come out with.
Mig Dobre:
Great. Thank you, guys.
Jon Marten:
Okay.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Mig.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please proceed.
Nathan Jones:
Good morning, everyone.
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Nathan.
Nathan Jones:
Just following up on the last caller, you talked about a timing issue on international margins related to FX. Can you talk about how long that takes to get through before we will start to see improvement there?
Jon Marten:
We - it will take a quarter or two is what our estimates are. This is something that we are all working very hard around the world to make sure that we are reacting to. But as you know very well, Nathan, I mean to take the euro down to $1.06 for us at the end of March, that, as well as the strength of the dollar versus almost all other currencies, that has had an impact on us. And in some cases we have - not in all - but in some cases we need to make very quick turns and pivots in terms of our pricing and we are working on that.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. And then obviously some different drivers this time, but some of the data starting to look a little bit like your 2012, 2013 numbers. We saw four quarters of mid-single digit order declines there, margins compressed about 200 basis points. Is there some reason why we shouldn’t be thinking about that as a base case scenario going forward over the next 12 months?
Jon Marten:
Well, I think the answer to that is we should not expect that as a base case. I think that what is different, the successful massive restructuring that we did last year, that is bleeding over into expected future margins that we are going to see, a program that Tom outlined in terms of our overhead efficiency that is going to make us even more efficient going forward and our ability to grow in markets that we are not talking about too much on this call that is really going to help us in the out period. So I am very, very optimistic about us going forward. We are certainly going to see an increase in our aerospace margins as time goes on also. And because of the actions that we took in Europe, because of the markets that will continue to grow in North America and because of the aerospace segment actions and wins that we took a few years ago, I don’t feel like we are going to see a repeat of that time period, so kind of a long-winded answer, Nathan, but wanted to be responsive.
Nathan Jones:
Okay. And one more, you did talk about industrial machinery exports potentially improving in Europe with them becoming more competitive with lower currency. Have you started to see any impact in Europe from the lower currency over there making European economies more competitive? Any greenshoots of that or any expectation?
Lee Banks:
Nathan, it’s Lee. I’m not ready to say that at this point in time. There’s certainly a lot of hope and a lot of conversation, but to see strong evidence of that, I can’t see that yet.
Nathan Jones:
All right. Thanks very much.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Joel Tiss:
[indiscernible] in, how are you doing, guys?
Robin Davenport:
Good morning, Joel.
Joel Tiss:
I just have - a lot has been asked and you guys have been great about answering everything. I just wondered if you guys share the historic view that the aerospace is a little bit too small of a percent of the whole company.
Thomas Williams:
Yes, Joel. It’s Tom. Ideally, we would like to get aerospace to be 20% of the portfolio. Today, it runs around 15% or 16%. So we would like it to be a bigger piece it acts as a counter cycle to the shorter cycle industrial part. It shares all common technologies across the company. There’s parts of it that we would really like to build out, which I won’t necessarily say publicly because I don’t want to tip my hand as far as what we might want to be investing in, but there’s a lot of it that we very much would like to build out and the aerospace team is working that as we speak, both organically and through acquisitions.
Joel Tiss:
And is it safe to assume that there is nothing really big in the acquisition pipeline, or else you guys would balance the share repurchase and the acquisitions a little more?
Thomas Williams:
Joel, it’s Tom again. The pipeline is getting more active, and - I’ll probably never be happy with the volume there, but it is getting more active, so I’m pleased with that. Our sweet spot will continue to be in the $30 million to $300 million revenue range. That being said, we are a big company. We could do a bigger acquisition, but I think you will see us - the majority of activity is going to be in our traditional wheelhouse as far as revenue size.
Joel Tiss:
And the last one, I just wondered why not top decile instead of top quartile? Is there anything from what you see today and what you’ve seen historically that makes it more realistic to reach for the top quartile instead of the top decile of industrial profitability?
Thomas Williams:
This is Tom again. Are you talking about top 10% versus top 25%, that is your?
Joel Tiss:
Yes, yes. You guys have been in the top 25% probably for most of the last decade.
Thomas Williams:
Yes. When we look at - it is against our proxy peers is what we are comparing to and it’s a pretty competitive group and there are some metrics where we are not in the top quartile where we would like to get into the top quartile and when we give you the Win Strategy refresh November 3 for the Investor Day, we’re going to give you a vision of where we would like to take the company and that will include some metric expectations and give you an idea how and how long it will take us to get there. The bottom line is we think we can take - the company has done extremely well. The Win Strategy has been really a unifying document for the company, a defining strategy, but we think there is an opportunity to take it to the next level, which in turn will take the total company to the next level. And I can just tell you for everybody on the phone as well we’ve gotten - both Lee and I have gotten tremendous interest and participation as we’ve been going around talking to our employees about the new Win Strategy and there’s lots of good ideas and we are encouraged by what we are hearing.
Joel Tiss:
Great. Thank you very much.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Joel. And Alex, I think we will take one more call.
Operator:
Okay. Your last question comes from the line of Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Please proceed.
Steve Volkmann:
Hi, good morning. Just slipped in, so just one quick detail maybe, Robin. The gain in Switzerland, how much was that exactly?
Robin Davenport:
That was $0.19 attributed to the gain.
Steve Volkmann:
$0.19. Great, that’s helpful. And then, Tom, I think it was you in the initial comments talked about refreshing the Win Strategy and I guess you are going to try to sketch that out in more detail, but I am going to just see if I can get a little bit of a preview. Traditionally, we have had kind of pricing and lean and sourcing as sort of the key levers in Win Strategy. Are we adding additional levers, do we think there’s a lot more room in the existing levers? Just give us a sense of how you think about that.
Thomas Williams:
Yes, it is early for me to try to give you that, but I think the essence of why we are calling it the refresh, you’re not going to see a sharp turn to the right as far as on the Win Strategy, it’s going to be building on top of it. So I think it will be a combination of enhancements to the existing strategy and few new ones that we will put on there. And I think it’s the combination, really the vision - there’s a couple visions here. One, to be a top quartile diversified industrial company and that’s kind of the overarching one. The second is to an even stronger number one in our space, so we are only 11% share. If you looked in the back of the Win Strategy, we have always had a vision historically to be 20% market share. That would put us at a $20 billion company and that’s - I mean that’s the other part of it. So initiatives on how to get to be in top quartile and how to be significantly bigger - being significantly bigger number one - is going to frame the Win Strategy refresh.
Steve Volkmann:
So is it safe to say win 2.0 is more focused on growth than on margin?
Thomas Williams:
I would say it is always going to be balanced, you have to do both.
Steve Volkmann:
Great. I appreciate it.
Robin Davenport:
Okay. Thanks so much, Steve. So this concludes our Q&A and earnings call. I’d like to thank you for joining us today. Todd and I will be available throughout the remainder of the day to take your calls should you have any further questions. And once again thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Executives:
Robin Davenport - Investor Relations and Vice President, Corporate Finance Donald Washkewicz - Chairman of the Board Thomas Williams - Chief Executive Officer Jon Marten - Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Ben Xiao - Credit Suisse Nathan Jones - Stifel Andrew Obin - Bank of America John Inch - Deutsche Bank Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Jeff Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Josh Pokrzywinski - Buckingham Research Sara Magers - Wells Fargo Securities Jeff Sprague - Vertical Partner Investors
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the second quarter 2015 Parker Hannifin Corporation earnings conference call. My name is Katina, and I will be your coordinator for today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call Ms. Robin Davenport, Vice President, Corporate Finance. Please proceed.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Katina. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Parker Hannifin second quarter fiscal year 2015 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today on the call is Chairman, Don Washkewicz; our newly elected Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. Today's presentation slides together with the audio webcast replay will be accessible on the company's investor information website at www.phstock.com for one year following today's call. On Slide 2, you'll find the company's Safe Harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements as well as non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation for any reference to non-GAAP financial measures are included in this morning's press release and were posted on Parker's website, at www.phstock.com. So moving to Slide 3, our call agenda is outlined. We'll start with Chairman, Don Washkewicz, as he provides highlights for the second quarter. Secondly, Parker's newly elected Chief Executive Officer, Tom Williams, will make some introductory comments. Following Tom's comments, I'll provide a review of the company's second quarter performance together with the revised guidance for fiscal year 2015. Following our prepared comments, we'll open the call for Q&A session. And finally, Don will conclude today's call with some closing comments. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don and ask that you refer to Slide number 4.
Donald Washkewicz:
Thanks, Robin, and welcome to everyone on the call. We certainly appreciate your participation today, especially in light of the fact that you're digging out of a massive snow storm, especially those up in the Northeast and Boston, in particular. So we appreciate you're participating today. I'll take a few minutes to talk about the quarter, before I introduce Tom Williams, our new CEO, to make some additional remarks. First, a few comments on our second quarter. We had a record second quarter. Our earnings per share exceeded our expectations and has led to a solid first half and continuing positive trends for the company. While we are facing challenges in certain regions and end-markets, especially with respect to currency headwinds, we continue to execute well on what is a moderately positive economic environment. As you can see by the numbers, the benefits of our timely global restructuring executed in the past 18 months are helping to offset weaknesses in some of the regions and end-market segments, and we'll get into that a little bit later. Having said that, we are confident in our ability to achieve another year of record results, as outlined in company's guidance for the year. So here are some second quarter highlights. Sales were up 1% for the quarter, as strong organic growth of 4% was partially offset by significant currency headwinds. So you can see that the impact of currency was very dramatic, greater than I have ever seen in the past in this position. Order rates remain positive at 4% with growth in every segment. This is the sixth consecutive quarter of positive order growth, so we are very excited about that trend as well. Segment operating margin was 13.7% or 14% as adjusted. We are very pleased with these margins, considering that the December quarter, as we have talked about in the past, is historically our weakest quarter for margins. We remain on course to deliver on our target to exceed 15% segment operating margin in fiscal year 2015. This will be, by the way, the second year in the company's history where we did deliver a 15% operation margin. The last time was in fiscal year 2012. Earnings per share increased 8% to $1.80 and on an adjusted basis earnings increased 41% to $1.84 per share, both of which were second quarter records. Cash flow of 8.9% of sales, just shy of 9%. We expect fiscal 2015 to be our 14th consecutive fiscal year, where cash flows exceed 10% of sales and we're very pleased with that record performance as well. In addition, this is also expected to be our 14th consecutive fiscal year, where free cash flow is greater than net income. Our capital allocation priorities remain the same, as they have been in the past, with our top priority to maintain our dividend increases. As you know, our dividends have been raised for 58 consecutive years. We have increased the dividend 31% this year. We announced that last quarter. And we've raised dividends 150% in the last five years. So you can see that the priority that we've put on dividends is significant. We've also been active in our share repurchase program following our October announcement of a new authorization for the purchase of $2 billion to $3 billion in shares over two years. During the second quarter, as we have announced, we repurchased $817 million worth of Parker shares, and we're going to give you a little update. And as of today, we have now purchased a total of $1.2 billion in Parker shares since the October announcement, so that's effective as of today. As always, we will continue to look for strategic acquisitions to help achieve our growth goals going forward. Regarding the guidance, following a strong first half of the year we have increased our guidance. Adjusted guidance has been increased to a range of $7.90 to $8.30 per share and excludes $0.20 of restructuring expenses. I want to take this opportunity now to introduce Tom Williams to all of you. Tom will lead our future earnings calls. I want to congratulate Tom, who we recently announced will become our new Chief Executive Officer, effective February 1. Tom has been highly successful in his previous role as Executive Vice President and Operating Officer for company. He brings significant experience from across Parker's businesses, having had leadership responsibility at one time for all of our product groups and all except one of our regions during the past eight years. I would also like at this time to congratulate Lee Banks, who has been promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer. Lee too has had broad exposure to our businesses, groups and regions, as an Operating Officer for eight years, and at some point had responsibility for all, but one of our product groups and one region for the company. Over the past 10 years, both Tom and Lee have benefited from an on-purpose management development and succession process here at the company. We are very fortunate to have the depth of talent and extensive knowledge of our company, our markets and our customers that Tom and Lee bring. They both will be part of a newly-created office of the Chief Executive that will also include our Chief Financial Office, Jon Marten. Tom and Lee have also been elected to serve on our board. I have worked closely with Tom and Lee over many years now, and I am very confident in the strong executive leadership team that will succeed me. They have the ability and the drive to move Parker to higher levels of success and performance going forward. As Chairman, I am looking forward to a smooth transition to the new leadership. I'll now hand the call over to Tom for a few comments.
Thomas Williams:
Thank you, Don, and thank you to everyone for joining on the call today. I am honored and excited to be the new CEO of Parker. I'd like to take this moment on behalf of all of the Parker employees to thank Don for his great leadership as CEO and President of our company. His vision and his passion have completely transformed Parker and yielded significant improvements in our results over the years. I really like our new leadership structure. As most of you know, Lee Banks and I have worked closely together, as the two Operating Officers for the company. I look forward to continuing to work side-by-side with Lee, as each of us take on our new roles as CEO and President and COO, respectively. In addition, we are fortunate to have a talented and deep leadership team that do a great job executing the win strategy. My near-term goals are, first, to continue with the performance improvements that are underway and deliver on our financial commitments for this fiscal year. Second, to execute our current capital allocation strategy of increasing annual dividends, investments for organic and acquisition growth and share buybacks. The win strategy will continue as the business system and overarching strategy for the company. However, with new corporate leaders, it is an opportune time to refresh the win strategy. Over the next several months we will be listening and assessing, as we formulate more detailed long-term plans for our company. Our goal is to take the win strategy and the company's performance to the next level. Don's leadership and the win strategy have positioned Parker well for future growth, and it is now my job to build upon the success and reinforce our position as the leader in motion control technologies. I'll now hand things back over to Robin, to provide a closer look at the results.
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Tom. At this time, I'll begin to address the earnings per share for the quarter and ask that you refer to Slide 6. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share for the second quarter were $1.84 versus $1.30 for the same quarter a year ago. This equates to an increase of $0.54 or 42%. This excludes restructuring, which originally planned at $0.08 was $0.04 in the second quarter and compares to $0.06 for the same quarter last year. On Slide 7, you'll find the significant components of the walk from adjusted earnings per share of $1.30 for the second quarter in '14 to $1.84 for the second quarter of this year. Notably, the key elements that contributed to the increase were, segment operating income of $0.21, reflecting improved performance across all of out segments. A reduced tax rate for the quarter that contributed $0.18, driven largely by the passage of the U.S. tax extenders bill, which afforded the company increased foreign tax credit and R&D tax credit. Significantly, lower other for the period contributed $0.15, which included lower stock-based compensation expense and a number of favorable one-time items. And the impact of fewer share outstanding that equated to $0.04, offset slightly by increased interest expense of $0.03. Moving to Slide 8. Total company organic sales in the first quarter increased more than 4% over the same quarter last year. There is minimal contribution to sales in the quarter from acquisition and currency impact was considerably larger than planned, which reduced reported sales by $108 million or 3.5% in the quarter. As shown on the bottom of this slide, total company segment operating margins for the second quarter adjusted for restructuring costs in the quarter were 14% versus 12.7% for the same quarter last year. Restructuring costs in the quarter were $9 million versus $13 million last year. The higher adjusted segment operating income this quarter of $439 million versus $393 million last year, was an 11.7% improvement, is due to higher volume and a favorable mix in North America in aerospace, lower development costs in aerospace and improvements resulting from the restructuring actions taken in Europe. Now, moving to Slide 9, focusing on the business segments, we'll commence with the Diversified Industrial North America segment. For the second quarter, North American organic sales increased 5.2% to $1.4 billion from $1.3 billion last year. There was little impact from acquisitions and a modestly negative impact from currency in the quarter. Adjusted operating income for the second quarter increased to $227 million from $201 million or a 12.9% increase, driven mainly by higher volume and favorable mix. Continuing to Slide 10, organic sales for the quarter in the Industrial International segment were flat. While acquisitions made minimal contributions, currency was a significant reduction to sales at 7.5%. Adjusting for restructuring cost, operating margin for the second quarter increased to 12.3% from 11.5%, as a result of savings associated with the realignment actions taken last year. As compared to our previous Q2 guide of 13.5% for the quarter, nearly all of this difference is attributed to negative currency. Now, moving to Slide 11 for Aerospace Systems. Organic revenues increased slightly more than 11% for the quarter. With no impact from acquisitions, currency posted a modest 0.4% reduction. The sales growth for the period was driven by higher commercial OEM and military aftermarket business. Operating margins for this quarter increased 310 basis points from 8.9% to 12%, due to higher margin OEM business and aftermarket sales volume. On Slide 12, we'll detail the orders changes by segment. As a reminder, Parker orders represent a trailing average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year and exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. The Diversified Industrial segments report on a three-month rolling average, while aerospace systems are based on a 12-month rolling average. The total orders were a positive 4% for the quarter; and Diversified Industrial North American orders for the quarter just ended increased 4%; Diversified Industrial International orders increased 1% for the quarter; and Aerospace orders increased 9% for the quarter. One Slide 13, we report cash flow from operations, which year-to-date was $538 million or 8.4% sales. The significant items impacting cash in the second quarter were as follows
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jamie Cook representing Credit Suisse.
Ben Xiao:
This is actually Ben Xiao on for Jamie. Best of luck to Don and congrats, Tom and Lee. So my first question is, can you just speak to order trends by month during the quarter as well as January in North America, Europe and Asia? Was it pretty consistent throughout or were there any specific months that were stronger or weaker than expectations?
Jon Marten:
I think for the quarter, for our Q2, the order trends came in as we expected. We had a very good October. We had a pretty good November, and then a very good December. So the trends in the quarter were not deeply changing from month-to-month, but we did have a very good December. So that's what led to our guidance that we ended up providing here for the balance of the year.
Ben Xiao:
And then on the operating margin guidance, it looks like it's mainly currency that's impacting international. So I guess for North America the implied incrementals for the back half of the year are a bit lower than the first half. Are there any specific drivers behind that?
Donald Washkewicz:
No, those are really the incrementals for North America. And you're right. First of all, you're absolutely right on international. It is almost all currency driving that change in the margins. But for North America there are certain types of R&D, certain types of investments, this is consistent with what our guidance was at the end of last quarter. And so there is not one particular item altogether, there is a series of different items built into the guidance for the second half that is impacting slightly the incrementals for North America, which are at all-time high Q2 returns.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones representing Stifel.
Nathan Jones:
If I could just, the international growth has obviously been taken down primarily due to currency. Is there an organic part of that reduced guidance there or is it entirely currency?
Donald Washkewicz:
Almost all of it is currency. We are seeing some organic weakness in China in the construction business going forward, and that's impacting the numbers a little bit. And also internationally in oil and gas that's impacting the numbers a little bit. But that's less than 20% of the guidance going forward here. It's almost more than 80% of the reduction there, Nathan, is currency.
Thomas Williams:
Nathan, its Tom. Just to add onto that, we've seen from some of the construction OEMs that they are actually shutting down the whole month of January all the way to Chinese New Year. So that's what's impacting some of those numbers.
Nathan Jones:
And then on the corporate expense, which obviously includes interest, which is going up from your previous guidance, that's still gone down $15 million overall. Can you talk about what's on the good side of that ledger?
Jon Marten:
Well, going forward on that is our latest analysis of all the lines in the income statement going for the next six months. And when we put them all together, Nathan, it's really primarily stock-based compensation. There is also some charges that we take at corporate that we won't need to take, that has to do with some really technical accounting work in terms of LIFO. So that's it in a nutshell. There's not one significant thing other than stock-based compensation.
Nathan Jones:
And then just on the Diversified Industrial North America revenue growth rate, you took 50 basis points out of that at the midpoint. Is that primarily related to the oil and gas business in North America, is there anything else impacting that?
Jon Marten:
No, I think, overall, Don hasn't gone through the markets yet. But if we had to give one answer to it, it would be our viewpoint on the weaker oil and gas going forward and that is built into our second half. It is not a pronounced number at this point. We're watching it very closely, but that would be the major driver, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin representing Bank of America.
Andrew Obin:
Just a question on buybacks. So should we assume that the rest of the buybacks in the next 20 months will be completed, you'll do it and then you'll tell us the way you do it beyond $50 million a quarter, is that what we should be thinking?
Jon Marten:
That's correct, yes.
Andrew Obin:
Can you guys just comment on the impact of oil on Parker's numbers? A, first, maybe talk about the negatives. I know we have a lot of questions from investors, as to what exactly your oil exposure is. There is a lot of debate there, and if you could walk us through that? And, b, the positive impact. How long do you think until we see the positive impact on spares in the aerospace business?
Jon Marten:
Andrew, just to start with oil and gas, and then I'll get to the aerospace later. Big picture, our most recent 12 months oil and gas exposure is about $800 million. That's about 6% of our sales, half of that is OEM, half of that is aftermarket. It is also almost half in North America and about 35% in Europe and the balance around the world. We feel really good about the diversity of our oil and gas exposure. Half of it being in the aftermarket gives us less variability that we think that we'll see there going forward. We've made great strides in our oil and gas exposure, bringing new technology, new innovation, new products to markets that have not seen our technology before. That's what's helped us really more than double our oil and gas exposure over the last five years. And we're making inroads in that market, because of the productivity and the savings that we're bringing to our customers. Now, of course, going forward we're keeping a close eye on how that market is going to trend. Right now, today, anecdotally of course, we are hearing some comments from our customers. It is not going to impact our Q3, and that's what's built into our guidance dramatically. We don't think that it's going to really have a dramatic impact in our Q4 either. We do feel like that, given our exposure, given our diversity and given the different types of upstream and downstream exposure that we have to oil and gas, that we won't be hurt as badly as you might think that we would, given the $800 million in sales in the past 12 months. So file that we are going to keep everybody updated each quarter going forward. And we know that we'll have an impact, but how big that will be is impossible to say right now. We are just going to kind of continue to update you as the quarters go on. So that's the big picture on oil and gas. On the aerospace spares, I think that in our guidance going forward we have a modest increase in our spares projected for the second half. There is no doubt that as time goes on that spares and repairs, as a percentage of our aerospace business, will increase. When that inflection point is, as to when it starts to ramp up dramatically, is a question of debate right now. It's certainly not in our FY '15. When we pull together FY '16 and we start really making our way through the OEM super cycle that we're in right now, we'll be able to really have a better estimate as many of the new aircraft start to order spares as they get more hours on them. So I think it is clearly a tailwind for us going forward.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of John Inch representing Deutsche Bank.
John Inch:
Can I just ask about the diversified industrial international margin update to guidance? I think, Robin, you said it was, the down shift was due to FX, but why would actually that impact margins? Doesn't FX convert at sort of the average margins, so that it should sort of provide a read-through at a constant basis? Or are your European margins higher in terms of where you're seeing the weakness or what? I'm not sure I really follow it.
Jon Marten:
Well, our FX, your right, it does convert at our average margin and so we are reducing our sales forecast going forward. We are seeing in our international business, John, some additional headwinds when it comes to reaching the sales goals that we thought that we would get and so we're not getting the absolute margins that we are looking for. But it is true that our margins are and our updated guidance are slightly down.
John Inch:
So Jon, so the drag is what, like as you called out, sort of the stoppage of construction. I'm assuming there's a mix issue then with respect to whether you're seeing disruption on your margins. Is that fair?
Jon Marten:
Yes, it would be in Europe. We have a very healthy oil and gas business in Europe and so that would be part of it. And also would be internationally in China with the additional issues that we are calling out here in the construction end-markets there too.
John Inch:
And then why is your tax rate going down 2 points? That seems like an awful lot. If international is a little weaker, doesn't international have lower tax rates, like why would the tax rate be going down 2 points?
Jon Marten:
Well, in our original guidance there are two things that are really driving that. One is the legislation that was passed in December and we've gotten a significant research and development one-time credit. We're also building in our tax rate the impact of the balance of the legislation and the extenders legislation that was passed. But also, we updated our guidance in terms of what our international income will be vis-à-vis our total income for the year. And when we did that it is counterintuitive, but when we did do that we did end up showing a larger percentage of our international income in our tax rate, therefore, driving down the overall tax rate for the company.
John Inch:
I guess I could take that offline, but is there any sound bite? Like how does that work? How do your international numbers go down, but I'm not sure I'm following that?
Jon Marten:
It has to do with the mix of income by country internationally, and I can explain that to you in more detail if you would like.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie representing Goldman Sachs.
Joe Ritchie:
So my first question is really on the aero segment. It looks like you had really good organic growth this quarter, good margin expansion, but as you look into the back half of the year you're still expecting a pretty significant improvement on the margin. And so if you could just provide some color on what's going to drive that improvement; is R&D as a percentage of sales, still expected to be 9%? And are there mix issues that are going to benefit that in the second half?
Jon Marten:
We are seeing that R&D, as a percent of sales, is going to still be right around the 9% level here, so that would be our update for you today, Joe. I think that it is going to be additional volume through the second half that is going to drive margins further. It is also going to be a slightly better mix for us in the commercial MRO and business here vis-à-vis our OEM business going forward here too, which will be driving incremental margins for us.
Joe Ritchie:
And then I guess following up maybe on Nathan's question from earlier; is it typical to see Chinese construction OEMs basically shutdown spending this early ahead of the Chinese New Year?
Thomas Williams:
Joe, this is Tom. No, that is definitely very unusual. Maybe they might extend it a week, but to extend it for that period of time is definitely unusual. That's one of the impacts we included in the international segment for the second half of the year.
Joe Ritchie:
And then maybe what if I could sneak in one last one on the buyback? If you could just kind of walk through your funding assumptions for the buyback, how much of the buyback or what percentage of the buyback can you fund through going out into the CP market versus free cash flow versus term debt, that would be helpful.
Jon Marten:
Joe, our intent is to have our CP market, our CP balance at zero by June 30. So we are going to be funding our additional incremental stock buybacks through operating cash flow.
Joe Ritchie:
And the debt that you called out at the end of last year?
Jon Marten:
Well, the debt that we called out at the end of last year was used to pay down, as Robin explained on the CP and that we had an outstanding, so.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond representing KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeff Hammond:
So just a couple housekeeping items on the buyback. Can you give us ending diluted share count for the quarter and what your average price you paid for the $1.2 billion or so that you bought?
Jon Marten:
The average price that we paid for the $1.2 billion was $126.5. And the ending share count at the end of the quarter was 148.7 million.
Jeff Hammond:
And then maybe can you just address the M&A pipeline and if any of this market choppiness is likely to bring back any of these larger deals you had looked at.
Thomas Williams:
Jeff, this is Tom. I would characterize the pipeline as kind of skinny right now; not as deep as we would like to have. Valuations continue to be high. However, our strategy is still to grow via acquisitions. And we've got a history of being a great acquirer and gaining a lot of synergies as we do that, so we will continue to do that. We do want to beef up that pipeline. That will be one of the things that Lee and I focus on is to increase that pipeline. I don't see here during the share buyback period us doing a very large deal. I think we are focus on our bread-and-butter acquisitions, the normal size you've seen us do historically. Maybe after that if it made sense and the right property came along we would look at it, but I think we'll focus on our space and the sizes you've seen us do in the past.
Jeff Hammond:
Jon, just back to the share count. I think you had 148.2 million for the average for the quarter. I'd expect that the ending would have come in lower than that, given the buyback activity?
Jon Marten:
Well, I thought that you asked for the period ending number there, Jeff, so I would have to get back to you on the average for the quarter. I can tell you this, the average for the year that is included in our guidance is 145.8 million.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski representing Buckingham Research.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
Just first question here, I guess a lot of focus on the oil and gas business. Maybe if we can look at that from the other side in terms of price cost. Clearly commodities have come in across the board. You guys technically have pretty good pricing power through distribution. Is that something you factored into your guidance or something we should expect to see in this fiscal year?
Thomas Williams:
As far as materials and price, maybe just step back for a second and talk about how we normally look at those. But we always look at Sell Price Index or SPI, and we look at purchase price index that we're paying coming in. And the goal is always to have that be slightly positive, which is what we have factored into the guidance. When I look at materials, it's kind of a mixed bag. We've got aluminum and zinc that are slightly bit plus, I'm giving you prices versus the prior year. On the negative side, meaning prices going down in castings, copper, but remember copper is typically indexed for a lot of our OEMs and flows through on pricing and material that happens. Nickel is soft. And then bar stock is flat. So it's kind of a mixed bag, but what's in the guidance is a slightly positive help with PPI versus SPI.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
And then just a follow-up on the buyback. Have you guys been able to tighten the range on total purchase over the next 20 months or are we still sticking with that $1 billion wide range at this point?
Thomas Williams:
The range is really going to be predicated by what other capital opportunities are out there, primarily acquisitions. So we are committed to the minimum side for sure, the $2 billion. But if we saw acquisitions that we liked, we would stay at the low end of that at the $2 billion. If there wasn't a lot of activity that we could action, you'll see us towards the top end.
Josh Pokrzywinski:
So there is a commitment though to spend $3 billion in some way, shape, or form?
Thomas Williams:
That's right.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Sara Magers representing Wells Fargo Securities.
Sara Magers:
This is Sara on for Andy Casey. I realized that you've probably talked a little bit about the components of the higher other income, but could you give a little bit more color as to the lower stock comp expense in the favorable one-time items and within Q2 and then within the guidance? And, if possible, the split for Q3 and Q4 in the second half.
Jon Marten:
Well, we see the split in Q3 and Q4 to be just about 50-50. The stock comp expense being down as we update our guidance just has to do with -- there's a lot of variables involved, but in general it has to do with our relative profitability, our relative profitability to our past, our relative profitability in accordance with our proxy peers. And it also has to do with how we are trending long-term over a three and four-year time period. We are constantly updating those updates in accordance with the plan determinations, and as we do that it's just incumbent upon us to keep the guidance updated. That line in our income statement can be quite variable over time, so we are just trying to give you the best information that we have today.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague representing Vertical Partner Investors.
Jeff Sprague:
I was wondering if you could just address restructuring, a small change, but kind of with the challenging world a little surprised you dialed it back a little bit. Would that reflect that you are getting more bang for the buck or there's savings coming through at a faster rate? Maybe you could just elaborate there.
Jon Marten:
Jeff, I think the really key message there is that there were -- our European restructuring program is just about complete, so the dialing back of the restructuring program has more to do with projects that we had underway outside of Europe that were dialed in for our fourth quarter. And we didn't really have much savings built, any savings built in to our FY '15 that were going to impact FY '16. And those projects are moved out of our guidance and may or may not be in our FY '16 guidance. We have not made that final determination yet, but we'll update you then.
Jeff Sprague:
And I was just wondering on, maybe this gets to talking about some of the key verticals, but motion systems looks like it was relatively weak versus other parts of the portfolio. Could you address kind of what's going on there in the big buckets, ag, off-highway, other key drivers?
Thomas Williams:
I will start on the technology platforms and I'll let Don go through all the markets. So first on the motion systems and really the flow of process control at the two technology platforms that were soft. If you look at all the platforms, they had the most exposure to some of the soft end-markets, farm and ag, construction and mining, so those are why those two are down. But then what did the technology platform show you is the power of the portfolio here, so engineered materials and filtration, and aerospace were positive offsetting that because of their exposure to automotive, telecom and of course, anything related to aerospace has been positive. Truck, marine and even with early signs in oil and gas, oil and gas is still positive year-over-year for us. So the motion and flow in process control, they were soft because of those ag, construction, and mining. But I'll let Don go through the typical market review.
Donald Washkewicz:
Jeff, would you like a little color on the PMIs and some of the trends and order trends?
Jeff Sprague:
I think, we probably got our hands on the PMIs pretty well, but any vertical market color would be helpful, yes.
Donald Washkewicz:
Maybe I will start with the regions. If we look at Industrial North America, the way I would describe it would be moderately steady growth there. 3/12 order trends north of 100, at about 104; 12/12 running about 105. So Industrial North America pretty consistent with what we have been talking about as far as our order activity here has been moderate, steady growth and it has been positive. Europe is flat, 3/12 100 to 101 in that range, pretty flat. 12/12 running about 100, which means there is virtually no growth in Europe currently. So that's what is happening there. By the way, that does not include the headwind from the currency. This is just the underlying growth of the region. Slower growth in Asia, 3/12 running about 102; 12/12 still at 107, so we would expect the 12/12 to trend down slightly over the next several months. And we'll be updating that as we go forward. Then declining growth in Latin America, we talked about that before. Latin America is one of the toughest regions out there right now. We have a smaller position there, but it's still a tougher region, 3/12 running about 90%. And then I want to just comment a little bit on some of the key markets in the same fashion that I have in the past. But one thing that I do want to point out and that we tend to overlook in many cases is our distribution channel. That is one of the strongest segments we have of all segments. It represents half of our industrial business. 3/12 trend on distribution alone is running about 110%, which is extremely strong. 12/12 is running about 110%, so here is a segment of our business that's just going full blast and doing extremely well. So I would say that segment is very strong. The other very strong segment out there right now is heavy-duty truck; 3/12 cyclical or pressure curve is running about 112%; 12/12 running about 110%, so very comparable to our distribution. Those are the two strongest market segments for us right now, doing extremely well. We see early recovery in our numbers in the construction, interesting enough; 3/12 on the construction side; off-highway running about 110%; 12/12 still closer to 100%, but that would bode well. It seems like early days in a construction recovery that we are witnessing right now and that would be positive going forward. I'm not talking about Asia so much now when I'm talking about that because what Tom said is still true in Asia; there is somewhat of a slowdown there. This would be more reflective of what's happening in North America. Another segment would be semicon market segment, that's pretty much flat; 3/12 and 12/12 running about 100%. I think everyone knows that ag is weakening. 3/12 there is running around 90%; 12/12 running about 90%, so that probably has not hit bottom yet. Hopefully that would happen within the near term. So that is a little bit of headwind going against us. And then aerospace, of course, is strong; 12/12 running around 110% there as well, so that is doing well. So those would be some of the pressure curves vis-à-vis be the order trend curves now, and then I will just give you some sequential activity in the different markets as I have done in the past. Markets that are trending sequentially very strong for us would be all the aerospace, both the commercial and defense side with the exception of the defense OEM. So defense aftermarket, commercial OEM and aftermarket being very positive sequentially. I mentioned distribution being very strong. Cars and light trucks, forestry, telecom, marine are all positive sequentially. Heavy-duty trucks I mentioned before extremely strong right now, and industrial trucks and material handling positive as well, along with residential air-conditioning. The list of segments that are sequentially going down or negative is relatively short. We've got aerospace and defense, OEM business, farm and ag, which I just mentioned earlier, machine tools, general industrial, life sciences, and mining would be on the negative side. And then kind of flat right now, but with the comments that I made earlier, still in effect, flat being off-highway construction. Again, keep in mind that North America looking a little bit positive in the early going here and Asia being more negative in construction. The other flat segments for us would be semiconductor, lawn and turf, power gen, and then commercial refrigeration, commercial air-conditioning, and industrial refrigeration. So hopefully that was helpful. It will give you a little bit more color on some of the segments and some of the regions out there as to what's happening. But I think the take away is that, yes, there is some headwinds that we have, but the nice thing is, as Parker is so broad based in so many different market segments, there's some nice tailwinds as well that are offsetting some of the headwinds that we are seeing.
Operator:
With no further questions at this time, I would now like to turn the call back to Ms. Robin Davenport for closing remarks. End of Q&A
Robin Davenport:
Thank you, Katina. This concludes our Q&A session. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Don for his closing comments.
Donald Washkewicz:
Thank you. Just a few closing comments. First of all, I want to again thank everyone on the call for joining us this morning, especially in the tough environment that you have out there for those up in the Northeast of course. I also want to thank you. I heard a lot of congratulations on the phone and I just want to thank you for those congrats, both for Tom and Lee and myself in our new assignments. I have certainly enjoyed participating on our quarterly calls over the past 15 years. Fortunately for Parker and our shareholders, they have been some of the best years in the company's history. With Tom and Lee now at the helm, I am totally confident that they will continue the momentum we have established and improve upon the successes we have had. I am pleased to end on a positive note as we anticipate that fiscal '15 will be a record year and that we will exceed our much sought after goal of 15% segment operating margin over the cycle. As always, I will take this opportunity to thank our employees, our global employees, our global workforce for their continued commitment and success, not only today, but during all of the years that I have led Parker. Our global team has done an amazing job executing the win strategy and delivering positive year results year-over-year. My best wishes and thanks to all of you in the financial community for your support of Parker. I look forward to continuing to serve our shareholders, along with my fellow directors and our new management team as Chairman of the Board. Of course, if you have any additional questions, Robin and Todd will be around for the balance of the day. And so with that, I'd just want to once again thank you and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect.
Executives:
Pam Huggins – Vice President and Treasurer Don Washkewicz – Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jon Marten – Executive Vice President, Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets Joe Grabowski – Robert. W. Baird Nathan Jones – Stifel Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse David Raso – ISI Group Joel Tiss – BMO Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management Josh Pokrzywinski – Buckingham John Inch – Deutsche Bank
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2015 Parker Hannifin Corporation Earnings Conference Call. My name is Genaida, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants on a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to, Ms. Pam Huggins, Vice President and Treasurer. Please proceed.
Pam Huggins:
Thanks, Genaida. Good morning, everyone. It’s Pam speaking, just as Genaida mentioned. I’d like to welcome you to Parker Hannifin’s fiscal year 2015 first quarter earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, Don Washkewicz; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. For those of you who wish to do so, you can follow today’s presentation with the PowerPoint slides that have been presented on Parker’s website at www.phstock.com. For those of you not online, the slides will remain posted on the company’s investor information website one year after today’s call. At this time, if you will reference Slide #2 in the slide deck, which is the Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement addressing forward-looking statements. And I ask that you please take note of this statement in its entirety if you haven’t already done so. This slide also indicates, as required, that in cases where non-GAAP members have been used, they have been reconciled to the appropriate GAAP numbers, and are posted on Parker’s website again that phstock.com. Slide #3. This is the agenda for today. It consists of four parts. First, Don, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President will provide highlights for the first quarter. Second, I’ll provide a review, including key performance measures, for the first quarter, and then of course conclude with a revised guidance for fiscal year 2015. The third part of the call will consist of our standard Q&A session. And so in the fourth part of the call, Don will close with some final comments. So at this time, I’ll turn it over to Don and ask that you refer to Slide #4 titled Highlights, First Quarter Fiscal Year 2015.
Don Washkewicz:
Thanks Pam and welcome to everyone on the call. We certainly appreciate your participation today. I’ll make a few brief comments and then Pam is going to return for a more detailed review of the quarter. I’ll address capital structure in a moment, but first I want to review a very strong first quarter for the company. I’m pleased we’re up to such a solid start to the year, as we executed well, delivered strong results and reinforced our view that this will be another record year for the company. The first quarter highlights, we had a record first quarter sales at $3.3 billion up slightly from last year’s first quarter. Organic growth adjusted for the GE Aviation joint venture increased almost 4%. So, we’re very pleased with that. Orders increased 5% and we’re positive across all segments, but especially strong in Aerospace. Total segment operating margins reached 15.9% and we’re certainly very pleased with those numbers, and that’s a 150 basis point increase from last year’s first quarter and on an adjusted basis reached 16.1%. This is a result of the success for restructuring completed last fiscal year. Our performance is led by an all-time record for segment operating margins in our Industrial North American businesses at 18%. Both Aerospace Systems and Industrial International had meaningful increases in margin this quarter compared with a year ago. Notably, the Industrial International margins reached 15%. And that’s a great number considering Europe and Latin America are still pretty weak for us. So, hitting 15% was a great accomplishment. Operating cash flows was again strong at $261 million and we anticipate that fiscal year 2015 will be our 14th consecutive year of cash flows greater than 10% and we’ve generated greater than 10% ever since we launched the win strategy back in 2001. Now, I’ll make a few comments on our capital allocation strategy as a follow on to our announcement last week. We are very pleased to announce that the Board increased a quarterly dividend 31% from $0.48 to $0.63 and authorized a repurchase of up to 35 million shares. Our capital allocation priorities remained pretty much the same as they have in the past, as we have consistently communicated our first priority is to maintain our dividend increase record. The significant increase last week brings us into alignment what our goal of a 30% payout ratio calculated as a percentage of net income. And we have been saying pretty much for the last year or so that we wanted to hit that 30% payout by within three years by 2016 and we’re pretty much on target for that. Second, we are committed to reinvesting in our business through capital spending that drives organic growth. We’ve been running less than 2% CapEx and we think that we can manage this business by executing lean, continuing to execute lean and keep the CapEx around 2% give or take a little bit. Third, we have a target to grow through acquisitions and we’ll continue to pursue acquisitions at fit with the company strategically. And then lastly, we are committed to providing returns to – to our shareholders. The new authorization of 35 million shares approved by the Board last week, allows us more flexibility for share repurchases, this authorization more than doubles the number of shares available to purchase compared to our previous authorization. Our goal is to repurchase 2 billion to 3 billion in the next 24 months for planning purposes and for spreadsheets; you can assume a straight line repurchase over the next two years, of course it appear to be a little lumpy, but I think that will be pretty much the best advice we can give you kind of assume straight line and you will be pretty close. Guidance has been increased based on our strong first quarter results, partially offset by a significant currency headwinds. Adjusted guidance has been increased to a range of $7.45 to $8.05 and diluted earnings per share and that excludes rather $0.25 of restructuring expenses. The savings from the timing of the execution of our restructuring activities give us confidence that will deliver another record year in fiscal 2015. So, now I’m going to turn the call back over to Pam for getting a little bit more detailed review of the quarter.
Pam Huggins:
Thanks Don. At this time, I ask that you reference Slide #5 and I’ll begin by addressing earnings per share. If you go to the far right of this slide, you can see that the first quarter came in at $1.89 versus $1.67 for the same quarter a year ago, an increase of $0.22 or a 13%. Restructuring were originally planned at $0.07 with $0.04 in the quarter and this compares to $0.06 for the same quarter a year ago. So, moving to Slide #6. This chart lays out the significant components of the lock from adjusted earnings per share of $1.67 for the first quarter of last year to the $1.89 for the first quarter of this year. And as you can see by looking at the slide, the significant contributors to the increase was segment operating income of $0.24. And this was due to better performance across all segments with a little offset due to the higher below the line expenses $0.02. And this is a result of less stock compensation expense offset by higher tax rate due to the elimination of the R&D credit and favorable discrete items last year. And I think that’s not new to you. So, moving to the next Slide #7. On the far right in the blue box commencing, if you go to the fourth line down, you can see that adjusted organic sales in the fourth quarter or in the first quarter increased almost 4%. So, we’re real happy with that 4% increase. And this takes into account just as a reminder the joint venture that commenced October 1st of last year. There was minimal impact to sales in the quarter from acquisitions, and currency or FX originally planned to be positive reduced reported sales by $23 million or 7/10 of a percent in the quarter. If you look to the bottom of the slide, you can see segment operating margins adjusted for restructuring cost in the quarter, the margins were 16.1% and this compares to 15% for the same quarter last year. Restructuring cost in the quarter affecting segment operating margin it was $6 million this quarter versus $11 million last year. And please note that total restructuring cost were really $8 million in the quarter and $12 million for the same period last year. This difference of $2 million and $1 million is really included in below the line items in other. So the higher adjusted segment operating income this quarter $525 million versus $476 million last year, which is a 10% improvement is due to the higher volume in North America and Aerospace, less support cost in Aerospace and leverage as of order restructuring in Europe. So, moving to Slide #8. Focusing on the business segments commencing with North America. You can see that reported and organic revenues increased 6% to $1.47 billion from $1.3 billion last year. And there was little impact from currency and acquisitions in the quarter. Going down to the bottom looking at the adjusted operating income for the first quarter, you can see that it increased to $264 million from $236 million a year ago, again mainly the result of higher volume in the quarter. Moving to the next slide, Diversified Industrial International. Here you can see that organic revenues for the quarter in this segment increased almost 1%, currency however, was a deduction to sales with an impact of minus 1%. Acquisitions again minimal impact, so reported revenues were down just a little less than 1%. So adjusting for realignment cost, operating margin for the first quarter increased to 110 basis points to 15.5% from 14.4% and this obviously is a result of less restructuring cost, and savings associated with the restructuring activities completed last year. Restructuring cost in this segment $6 million in the quarter and this compares to $9 million in the same quarter a year ago. So moving to Slide #10. Aerospace reported and organic revenues adjusted for the previously announced joint venture increased slightly more than 3% for the quarter. Again the impact of acquisitions in currency on this segment was negligible. The increase in revenue it was mainly due to higher commercial OEM business. Operating margins for the quarter increased to 100 basis points from 11.2% to 12.2% and this is due to higher margin OEM business on less support cost. So, now moving to order rate, just as a reminder these numbers represent trailing average and are reported as a percentage of increase of absolute dollars, year-over-year excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. Diversified Industrial uses the three month average while Aerospace Systems uses a 12 month average. And as you can see from slide, the orders were positive 5% for the September quarter just ended. North American orders were up 6%, Industrial International orders up 2% for the quarter and Aerospace Systems increased to 12%. So now if we can move to Slide #12, the balance sheet. Parker’s balance sheet remain strong, cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet at quarter end were #2 billion, partially offset by outstanding Commercial Paper of a little more than $700 million. DSI or day sales and inventory came in at 69 days flat with a year ago; inventory levels at 10.9% of sales are an improvement versus first quarter last year, were inventory as a percent of sales was 11.2%. Accounts receivable in terms of DSO closed at 49, a 1-day improvement from the first quarter of last year and weighted average days payable outstanding at the end of September was 60, a 2-day improvement sequentially from the June quarter end. Moving to Slide #13, to talk about cash flow, it was $261 million or 8% of sales and the major uses of cash in the quarter, $122 million return to shareholders by share repurchases and dividends, $113 million utilized in the reduction of Commercial Paper outstanding and $55 million utilized in connection with capital expenditures. As a result of this and more to cash on hand declined by close to a $100 million in the quarter. Moving to Slide #14 addressing the guidance. Please remember that, as requested we’re providing adjusted guidance in line with last quarter, sales growth is adjusted for the GE joint venture that commence the first of October last year and segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude restructuring charges. On this slide, we have detailed guidance for adjusted sales growth adjusted segment operating margins below the line items, the tax rate, the shares outstanding and then we provided the range for reported and adjusted earnings per share at the bottom. Beginning at the top, looking at the fourth line down and addressing sales, total adjusted sales are expected to increase from 0 to 3% for the year. This is lower than the previous guidance provided at the end of last quarter, due to negative headwinds from currency, mainly the strengthening of the dollar versus the euro to last quarter. Adjusted organic growth at the midpoint is 3.3% and there is minimal impact from acquisition carryover. Currency in the guidance is now a deduction to sales of 1.9%, almost all related to the Industrial International. For total Parker adjusted segment operating margins are forecasted to be between 15.7% and 16.1% and this compares to 14.4% for fiscal year of 2014. And that’s on an adjusted basis. The guidance for below the line items, okay we conclude corporate admin interest and other, it’s forecasted to be $470 million and again this is lower than the previous guidance given and this is due to the first quarter favorable results. The full year tax rate is projected at 29% and the number of shares used in the guidance is $151.1 million. Please note that shares outstanding have not been reduced for the share repurchases that will take place in connection with the new authorization of 35 million shares and the plan to purchase $2 billion to $3 billion in shares over the next 24 months. Also please note that the restriction on annual share repurchases has been lifted. This restriction was equally to the greater of 7.5 million shares of 5% of the shares outstanding as of the end of the prior fiscal year and is no longer in effect. For the full year revised guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis is $7.45 to $8.05 and $7.75 at the midpoint just as Don said. And this guidance excludes restructuring expenses approximately 50 million to be incurred in fiscal year 2015. And this is consistent with the previous guidance. The effect of this restructuring on EPS is approximately $0.25 and the $0.25 will be incurred about 50% in the first half, 50% in the second half. So, just a couple of selling or a point with respect to guidance, sales are divided 48% or $6.43 billion first half 52% or $6.93 billion in the second half. This is obviously at the midpoint. Segment operating income first half, second half is divided 45% in the first half and 55% in the second half. Earnings per share, first half, second half is 43%, 57% or $2.98 in the first half and $3.95 in the second half and again at the midpoint. Second quarter adjusted earnings per share is projected to be $1.47 at the midpoint and this number has been adjusted for $0.08 of the restructuring cost expected to be incurred in the second quarter. So in summary, the major difference between the full guidance this quarter versus last is higher than previously guided first quarter results partially offset by the negative impact of currency as a result of the strengthening of the dollar throughout the first quarter. Please remember that the forecast excludes any acquisitions or divestitures that may be made in fiscal year 2015 for published estimates as requested please exclude restructuring expenses. So, at this time we will now commence with the standard Q&A session. As a reminder the call will be limited to one hour. So, please honor the request of one question at a time and a follow up only when clarification is needed. Right here into this courtesy everyone will have a chance to participate. Thank you so much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Good morning.
Pam Huggins:
Good morning Jeff.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Pam congrats on the retirement and best of luck.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you so much, it’s been a pleasure Jeff.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Okay, so just on the – just to be clear on the buyback are you guys doing a 10b5 or you will be in it every day or will you be more opportunistic and have your normal blackouts? And maybe just to follow on, what kind of gets you to the higher low end to that $2 billion to $3 billion?
Jon Marten:
Okay, Jeff Jon here, I’ll start out, I think we are going to continue with our 10b5 just as we have right now as Don said for planning purposes, best to use a straight line method for yourself. The actual results are likely to be lumpy. So, we’re going to be reviewing matters as the in sewing quarters go on. And it’s going to be something that we’re going to be focused on every day.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Okay, and what takes you to the higher low end?
Jon Marten:
I think that, we’re going to just take it one quarter, our best advice right now Jeff, is that we’re just going to take it one quarter at a time, we’re going to update it every quarter as to what the results are. We would be able to tell you more about the high or the low end as we get into the program and time goes on. I don’t want to say anything to lead you to believe it is going to be closer to the low end or at the high end on this call.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Okay great. And just a quick follow-up, can you just talk about what trends you’re seeing in Europe just on an underlying basis, what you saw kind of coming out of the summer shutdowns in the September, October and we’re hearing certainly mix things and just want to get your sense of Europe?
Jon Marten:
I think you know to just start out on that Jeff in Europe things came in exactly as we had put our guidance together. We had a good July not a great August, again accounting for the normal shutdowns that we see in August. And then we had exactly what we expected in the month of September, things are not ramping up, things are not ramping down things are relatively flat in Europe when we take a look at the orders. And that’s what we’re seeing right now, of course the major change on our guidance going forward is just the impact of the strong dollar vis-à-vis euro. And that’s how we’re seeing and that’s how Europe is looking to us right now today.
Jeff Hammond – KeyBanc Capital Markets:
Thanks.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from RW. Baird. Please proceed.
Joe Grabowski – RW. Baird:
Hi good morning everyone, this is Joe Grabowski for Mig. Really nice recovery in the International operating margins, just wanted to maybe find out if some the restructuring disruptions you had last quarter, it seems like perhaps those were worked out this quarter?
Jon Marten:
Yeah that’s a fair assumption, we were really quite worried that in Q4. We talked about it a lot in our Q4 conference call. Those kind of disruptions, the restructuring related costs that we were experiencing in the Q4 of last year have all that been eliminated here, our plans are being executed very well by our team mates and we are very pleased with the results internationally here at this past quarter.
Joe Grabowski – RW. Baird:
Great, okay thanks. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, you kind of gave sort of the cadence of business in Europe, could you maybe talk about how the quarter progressed for North American industrial and maybe what you’re seeing so far in October?
Jon Marten:
Well right now in terms of the orders in North America, first your last question first for October, it’s right into where our guidance is coming out. So nothing remarkable there to report out on two you that was along with our orders, that was along with our guidance. In North America, in the quarter, the results as we saw them in July, August and September again sequentially August is always lower than July, which is what we saw and September was sequentially better than August and September was slightly better than the month of July.
Joe Grabowski – RW. Baird:
Okay great, thanks for taking my questions.
Jon Marten:
Sure.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Jones with Stifel. Please proceed.
Nathan Jones – Stifel:
Good morning Don, Jon and Pam.
Pam Huggins:
Hey Nathan.
Nathan Jones – Stifel:
If we could just go back to the beat in the quarter, it seem to me when you gave the guidance for this quarter that you had some vigor in built in there for possible cost over runs from the restructuring in Europe, how much of that improvement in Europe or you know the beat relative to your guidance was not incurring those costs, good execution on the restructuring versus fundamental improvement in the business?
Jon Marten:
I think Nathan, there is certainly was some hesitation on our part in the month as we were putting the guidance together in terms of whether happen in Q4 for Europe. But a significant part of the beat that you are looking at above the segment line is coming from a tremendous performance in North America, our North America Industrial business. With an all-time record 18% return on sales as we’re reporting externally. And that was even bigger and the slight beat that we saw in Europe and the more that we have since of what it transpired in Q4 last year.
Nathan Jones – Stifel:
And on those margins in North America, which were obviously extremely strong, was there anything that positively impacted that lot makes our price et cetera. This is normally your second lowest revenue quarter. Are they sustainable kind of margin levels do you think?
Jon Marten:
Well first of all to answer your first question it was across the Board, excellent performance every product grouping across the company in North America. So there is no mix issue that kind of crops out here, are these margin sustainable. Well, we have for the year higher guidance and Diversified Industrial North America at very good margins for us. We’re not showing that it can be sustained in Q2 or Q3, Q2 is always sequentially a little bit lower in terms of the top-line and Q3 we start to catch-up and around Q4 we will be very close to that same number in terms of our return on sales. And so for the whole year, we will be slightly below the 18 that’s what’s indicated in our guidance, but we will be in our guidance showing and we are showing all time high North America Industrial margins.
Nathan Jones – Stifel:
And once a little up just on the balance sheet, Don you can’t get read it out with me one on the balance sheet, I know you guys would have like to be able to get deals done over the past 12 months or so before getting to those point, can you talk about, what got in your way from getting those deals, Don whether it was discipline on price or what led you to not be able to get those done?
Don Washkewicz:
Nathan Don, just so that everybody on the call recalls what we had said in the past, it’s been about three or four quarters that of course everybody was asking what, how we’re going to deploy capital and so forth, that’s we’re building up cash balances on the balance sheet. And just sort of I can let you know now, what was going on, we had been in very serious discussions with a couple of major opportunities, acquisition opportunities in which case I would have needed all of the capital, all the cash that we had on the balance sheet and then some. They were very significant, we were in confidentiality agreements with them, I really couldn’t disclose or say anything at all at the time. So, we kept putting you up and I know that that was frustrating for all of our shareholders out there, that we – weren’t taken any positive action, I think they were thinking that we’re dragging our feet for one reason or other. But we were very, very seriously involved in a couple of major ones. We just couldn’t bridge the gap at the end of the day, the – we’re pretty disciplined, we have and these being strategic acquisitions. We felt that we had an advantage over other potential parties that would be interested from a standpoint that we would have more synergies. And so, even using a synergistic model with building and all the synergies, we still came up significantly short from what the expectation of the sellers were so. We agreed to part ways and at some point in the future maybe we’ll come back together, I think we kept everything friendly and I think there was just a difference in expectation or evaluation expectation that was the main reason why we parted. So, like I said we’re disciplined on this, we know the businesses very well, we know what the capability is, all of these companies that we’re looking at, because we’re in similar businesses. So, I don’t think we missed anything from an evaluation or fair evaluation standpoint, it was just that we were not going to come together at this point in time on either one of these. So, plan B Nathan was always share repurchase and we had been talking about the dividend increase. We moved that up a quarter, because once we broke the confidentiality agreement with these, we were then free to go ahead and go ahead and do some take some actions with regard to the dividend increase which we did and of course we announced the share repurchase as well. So, that was always plan B and I think, obviously the investment community saw that as a real positive that I have to say that going forward, we do have some smaller ones now more typical of what we’ve done in the past that are in the funnel we probably will have a couple coming out hopefully, we don’t project anything. But I would just say that, I my guess is right now will have a couple of smaller ones coming through the pipeline in the next few months. So, you will still see us active in this area, but very disciplined and hopefully that answers your question, I think obviously at some point in the future we could revisit any of these and/or all of these. But right now that’s off the table we’re pursing the actions that we presented to you this past week.
Nathan Jones – Stifel:
That’s a great explanation. Thanks Don and good luck Pam.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you, Nathan.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities. Please proceed.
Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities:
Good morning everyone and me too wish you the best Pam.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you, Eli, the pleasure is been mine.
Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities:
Can we talk about what you’re seeing in the marketplace in demand across the Board, you’ve gone to plus or the minus in this segment. And the order – your order in North America were quite actually, quite respectable for the quarter, and can you give us some idea, well we’re seeing of course business at this point if we go into the end of the year?
Don Washkewicz:
Yeah, I think I can do what I have done in the past, is seems like people would like to hear a little bit about, first I would give you a little color on the PMI and then I’ll give you a little overview on the regions and then maybe going to some specific market segments kind of wrap it up. But just starting off on the PMI and this would be comparing PMI of June to PMI of September basically, and I’m going to run you through the regions globally of just a little bit about 4/10 still tracking north of 50 at 52.2. So, globally we’re still on positive territory there. The U.S. was the – a very nice pick up since June, June was 55.3 we’re at 56.6, so it was a pickup of 1.3, which was good. The Euro zone was just the opposite, it went down to 50.3 from 51.8 was up 1.5. Germany was a big negative within the Euro zone of course Germany makes up a big part of that Euro zone. And Germany came in just above 50 was running more around 52 in June and now tracking around 50. So just off about 2 points. China off about a half tracking at about 50.2 right now in September and Brazil was under 50 at 49.3. So just some general comments about the PMI, all the PMIs are 50 or greater which bodes well with one exception and that is Brazil and they are very closer at 49.3.But I think when you look at just the PMI keep in mind my understanding of the way it works is that when you are at down as low as 44 you can still be growing, but had a much lower rate. So, all of these being around 50 or north of 50 is still pretty good news overall. The largest increase in the PMI from June was with the North America with the United States up 1.3. The largest reduction from June was Euro zone down 1.5 and that was let again by Germany. And then the largest absolute PMI was the United States, which is 56.6 which is definitely the strongest region of all of them. Now I’ll just kind of comment a little bit more detail on the regions more so than what you got from our order trends that we announced publicly. North America, as you saw, I may give you that 3/12 and 12/12s North America you saw 3/12 running about a 107 and the 12/12 running around 107. So those are both very strong numbers. Europe was pretty flat, 3/12 and 12/12 running at about 100. So, the last three months orders over the prior year the same three and the last 12 or the prior year to same 12, running at about a 100%. So pretty flat in Europe, a strong trend in Asia overall 3/12 running about a 107, 12/12 running at about a 108. So Asia and North America are strongest, two strongest regions. Latin America again very similar to Europe being flat 3/12 and 12/12 running pretty flat at a 100. So these order trends pretty much, match up well with the PMI industries that I just reviewed for you. Talking about some market segments and our market trends and what I’ll try to do is give you a little comparison, this would be comparing the fourth quarter, which tends to be a stronger quarter for us to the first quarter which is weaker. So, we would expect some more sequential lower numbers or lower activity numbers in some of these markets. And I’ll give you a little color as to how the year-over-year looks and these segments as well, because it will make the difference, because the two quarters are different with respect to strength, fourth quarter being stronger than the first quarter. Some positive market segments for us is Aerospace on commercial side, the OEM and aftermarket those are strong segments. Something that turned strong for us that was running kind of negative was Aerospace, Defense, MRO, okay and with all the activity going on that didn’t surprise us too much. The other strong segments for the quarter were distribution, I mentioned here in a little bit just how strong that was one of our strongest segments, cars and light trucks, telecom and heavy-duty trucks both distribution and heavy-duty trucks were very strong. Now on a negative standpoint, which segments are trending negative sequentially would be Aerospace, Defense, OEM doesn’t surprise us it’s been there, for quite a while now. Farm and Ag, machine tools, general industrial, life science, oil and gas, mining, marine, forestry, power gen, commercial refrigeration and commercial air conditioning. So that’s a pretty long list and then kind of flat positive, slightly positive to flat would be construction, process and semiconductors. Now coming back to all the negatives, because there was a long list of negatives, I want to just read off now the ones that are tracking positive year-over-year keep in mind that what I said earlier the fourth quarter it tends to be stronger than the first. So maybe this is a better indicator where these segments really are headed. So, the ones that are tracking positive year-over-year are machine tools, general industrial, oil and gas, marine, forestry, power gen and commercial refrigeration and commercial air conditionings. We can see on a year-over-year basis, we still see positive trends in all of those segments as well. Just coming back for a second on the 3/12 and the 12/12, I mentioned distribution being strong and heavy-duty truck being strong. Those are the two strongest segments for us on the positive side that the – the distribution on a 3/12 basis is running at 108, and on an order trend basis and on a 12/12 is running at a 108. So, continues to run extremely strong for us and keep in mind distribution is half of our industrial business. So that bodes very well. Strong likewise as heavy-duty truck running that question, last year this was running pretty, quite opposite, quite negative. But now it’s running positive 3/12 at a 110, 12/12 at a 109. So those are very strong. I mentioned, Ag is weakening the 3/12 on Ag is 73 that shouldn’t surprise anybody and the 12/12 is at 90. So that continues to weaken. Construction and Semicon are pretty flat, process slight increase 3/12 is running at a 100, 12/12 is at 97 due to the slight increase in process industries. And Aerospace is very strong 3/12 bounces between a 100 and 120 and the 12/12 at 110. So, those would be hopefully that wasn’t overly confusing, or probably have to go back and re-read some of those, but that’s how we see it here. And I think it’s important to kind of compare the year-over-year numbers, because of the difference in the quarters, fourth quarter being strong than the first.
Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities:
One quick follow up, can we talk about pricing, is there any movement in pricing at all in the industry?
Don Washkewicz:
Pricing and raw materials first of all, let me just touch on raw materials, because it’s tied in with pricing. We’re seeing quite a few of the inputs there as far as raw materials going up, steel and aluminum both are going up a little more to actually up to 20%. This is comparing trends from October last year to October this year. And copper is down just slightly, steel is up. So, what we’re doing is as we have done in the past, our time for reviewing pricing on the distribution channel is January and July. So, we’ll approach, we’re going to be approaching that here in the next month or two. So, I anticipate we will maybe making some adjustments depending on the raw material involved in the product involved. Keep in mind that our goal here is for the, we have like what we call PI index that purchasing price index, the goal is to keep that less than 1, we’ve been running less than 1. So, we’ve been recouping any increases in our input cost effectively. And the other thing we track very closely worldwide is our sell price index and that’s been tracking greater than 1. So, it has been running greater than 1 for considerable period of time. So, we’re recovering basically what that tells is recovering our cost plus the margin. So there will be some adjustments in January and if these increases continue, we’ll have to adjust them again mid-year. And then the other thing we do is for the OEMs, we look at the pricing at the anniversary of the contracts that we have with the OEMs and make the appropriate adjustments and negotiate those adjustments at that time.
Eli Lustgarten – Longbow Securities:
Thank you very much.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse:
Hi good morning, can year hear me.
Pam Huggins:
Hi Jamie, yes we can hear you.
Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse:
And Pam congratulations.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you, Jamie.
Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse:
So, just a couple of questions and I apologize, because this is like four different calls going on at the same time. But, can you just give us an update, on the Aerospace side your confidence level with the margin projections that you guys have given where we are in the first quarter and the headwinds that we’ve experienced over the past couple of years? And then my follow up question is just back sorry again on the share repurchase again, can you just talk, you talk to your assumptions of the timeline, but can you just talk to how you plan to finance, would you take on that should be expected to be, you will just use your free cash flow, will you repatriate cash from oversees, if you can just walk through that? Thanks.
Jon Marten:
Okay Jamie, Jon here. First on the Aerospace margins, we’re expecting to be coming right around guidance. We had a slight beat here in Q1. We are concerned as always about the trends that we see and the development expenses. That might be a little bit higher than what we were talking about for the year, maybe $5 million to $10 million. But, still we’re expecting R&D as a percent of sales around 9% for the year and we’re expecting our guidance at – we’re expecting the results to come in right at the 13.5 range. Now in terms of the share buyback, we’re going just use cash that we have on hand in the U.S. as well as our, Commercial Paper line that we have that we use that you’ll see that and it’s payable portion of our balance sheet and so it’s just the cash that we generate, the cash that we have here in the U.S. and our Commercial Paper line that’s how we plan to fund the share repurchases. Money that is oversees, we’re – it has been permanently reinvested oversees.
Jamie Cook – Credit Suisse:
All right, thank you.
Jon Marten:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso with ISI Group. Please proceed.
David Raso – ISI Group:
Hi, just quick question on the sales guidance for International, I was curious you lowered it solely on currency. Can you take us through the moving parts geographically, did you raise your outlook on Asia to offset a weaker outlook on Europe or is everything generally been maintained?
Don Washkewicz:
Well David just big picture, you are correct, we Asia is trending better than we expected and so, the trends in Asia are offsetting the weakness that we’re seeing in Europe without regard to the currency as it turns out the currency offsets the impact overall internationally, but when you break it down a little bit further we are seeing some pretty good growth and better than we expected in Asia and in some of our key end markets.
David Raso – ISI Group:
Can you flush that out a little bit where is Asia providing you the upside?
Don Washkewicz:
Well, it’s – this would go along with some of our rail businesses, our marine businesses, our oil and gas businesses. This would be centered around some of our engineering materials group, some of our filtration group, some of our life sciences businesses that are cut across all of our groups. So it’s no one end market David, but it’s – but it’s the mobile construction which of course is been a problem is flattening out there and again we’re seeing another end market, other key end markets in Asia some of the signs of mid-single digit to a little bit higher growth there in some those of markets that I just mentioned.
David Raso – ISI Group:
So the net ex-currency is international is still expected to be up a little bit, can you help us a little bit with how much is Europe down in that total International up slightly ex-currency?
Don Washkewicz:
Yeah, I don’t want to give you an impression that Europe is down very big, it’s not – it’s just down slightly, it’s relatively flat, it’s just the currency that we seeing that we’re calling out here on the call. And Asia is up slightly, but I don’t want to give you the impression that in our guidance Europe is coming in extremely weak it is not, it’s coming in right as we have kind of put our guidance together just slightly, slightly down but not significant at all.
Jon Marten:
And David, just kind of regrouping back at the order trends, that’s evidenced by the order trends of 3/12 being running at about a 112, 12/12 at 100. So it’s pretty flat.
David Raso – ISI Group:
I appreciate the color. Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss with BMO. Please proceed.
Joel Tiss – BMO:
Hey guys, how is it going?
Pam Huggins:
Good, how are you?
Joel Tiss – BMO:
That’s good, all right. This other expense line, I don’t know if you talked about that or not, it’s down $26 million in the quarter, I just wondered what was in there?
Jon Marten:
Well in the – on the other expense it is really a reduction in our stock option expenses just less stock option expense. We do that once a year in the company and it came in significantly lower for that line that we in plan drill. So that’s what we called out in our opening comments.
Joel Tiss – BMO:
And is there any reason why well to sort of going to blue two weird questions together, is there any reason why you’re not updating your long-term operating margin targets. You always talked about 15% seems like your pretty there now, I just wondered if there is another level. And any reason why you’re not including share repurchase in your forward guidance?
Jon Marten:
Well in terms of the share repurchase in the forward guidance, because it is likely to be lumpy as time goes on. We’ve thought the best thing to do for everybody understanding the models that we’re working with is to just give the advice that it would be, just straight lined over the next 24 months. And in terms of the – in terms of updating our long-term operating margins, of course we would, we don’t see a limit to the up increasing margins that we are seeing right now. We feel like that 15% is always been the number that has been over the cycle that is something that we’ve been really keyed on in areas of the world like we are right now and North America we’re able to 18. And so, it is something that we are very proud of here, but we don’t want to set a new level of expectations at this point. Don, but you want to add on to that?
Don Washkewicz:
I would just say that, if you look at what we were heading, we’re at 15% here; we’re going to close the year at 15%. And what I would consider kind of medio per year, with two of our regions doing recently well North America and then Asia. And two pretty much flat under back being Europe and Latin America. So, I think you can see that any tailwind that we get, going forward is just going to be accretive to our margins. I think it’s going to obviously be accretive to the MROS that will be generating. I think when you look at Aerospace, Aerospace is still well below where we think it will ultimately be and I think as we bleed off some of the R&D, the NRE expense, that R&D that we’ve been experiencing because of the new programs. I think you’re going to see margin improvement certainly across that platform. I think the other thing is, you’ve heard now about our self-help program, everybody was very positive on that this last year. And we appreciate that the fact that you’d hung in with us through that process. And but we’re not done, there is some more restructuring going on right now, some of that’s baked in to the obviously, into the numbers that you see. But as we fully appreciate the full impact of all of these restructuring that’s going to help margins as well. The other thing going on in the company that we don’t talk about a whole lot certainly on these cost is the innovation and as we drive more and more innovation new product, new to the world, new to the industry type products out there, our margins are going to increase. And then lastly, I would say and we already talked a little bit about this was our distribution channel, we continue to add distributions somewhere in the world everyday we’re adding distribution whether it would be a ParkerStore, HOSE DOCTOR a distributor at principal location or something somewhere in the world, something is going on every day, we want to continue building on that. So, I think when you talk margins in the company, we don’t know how high this can grow. I mean frankly we’re taking one year of time, and of course everything is fluid. So, things change every year and we’re just going to take a one year of time and I think though the trend, you can see when we are at 13%, we were getting questions Don, I think you are peaked out at 13% and then I said no, we’re going for 15%, when we got the 14% I was getting the same questions, you think that’s about it, I said no, I think we can go higher and 15%. And so, I think we’re going to see, I think the good news is we have a lot of great things happening in the company and we’re going to be moving this – the need as far as we possibly can and better days are ahead let me just leave it at that.
Joel Tiss – BMO:
All right, thank you very much.
Pam Huggins:
Thanks Joel.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blanton with Clear Harbor Asset Management. Please proceed.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Thank you.
Pam Huggins:
Good morning Alex.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Good morning and congratulations Pam.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
A quick question on the – the payout ratio that you indicated. If you take the new quarterly dividend rate $2.52 a year and divide that by the midpoint of your guidance, is a 32.5% payout. To be a 30% payout you would have to earn $8.40 here. So, could you just clarify that?
Jon Marten:
Well Alex, Jon here. My math comes up a little bit differently, here we’ve got, I’m showing at around 31, but of course you’re not far off. So, we are of course going to always grow. We’re at, we have not talked about our FY’16 and what we expected FY’16 in terms of the top-line growth as well as EPS. But our goal that we have set a few years ago it was to get to a 30% payout ratio. And I don’t think that there is anything wrong with the calculation that you just did. And but, I’m not sure you might want to just check your calculations on the share buybacks and what the straight line of the share buybacks would give you in terms of the 31, I think it might move from 31 to maybe around 28 or 29.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
And so you’re at 30, so you are 31% takes into account reduction number of shares?
Jon Marten:
31% is that exist right now today uses the current shares.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Oh current shares?
Jon Marten:
Yeah, but I think that if you – if you just assumed in your calculation the advice that we gave at the outset, I think it will go below 30.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
You know I just did a simple calculation.
Jon Marten:
Right.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Dividend were 8 per share divided by earnings per share.
Jon Marten:
Right.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Okay I see were just high. All right the second question sort of relates to Joel’s previous question, you had an incremental margin overall 111% in the quarter with profit up 49 million on 44 million increase of sales. And that was composed of 33% incremental margin in North America and then in rest of world and Aerospace you had higher profit on lower sales. So that was the result of your restructuring program which I assume continue to show some results this year. But going forward after that and relating to the possibility of even higher operating margins, what do you think you can generate normally as the incremental operating margin without any further restructuring?
Jon Marten:
Normally?
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Normally going forward after the restructuring is all in, why would you continue to expect leverage?
Jon Marten:
Our cost structure right now normally will give us about a 30% margin return on sales as the business unfolds overtime. That’s what our cost structure gives us across the Board for all of the segments.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
30% well, of course if you carry that out for ever you would raise your operating margin 30% ultimately.
Jon Marten:
Right, right.
Pam Huggins:
Thanks Alex, we try to make people understand that. So, thank you, you just have that.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
My point is that there is upper limit, but is pretty it can be well above where you are now.
Jon Marten:
Right, yes sir.
Alex Blanton – Clear Harbor Asset Management:
Okay thank you.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Buckingham. Please proceed.
Josh Pokrzywinski – Buckingham:
Hi good morning guys.
Pam Huggins:
Good morning Josh.
Josh Pokrzywinski – Buckingham:
So, just a couple of clarifications, first on the pacing of the buyback. I guess, first why not try to frontload that to the extent that, that the free cash flow enables it? And then I guess secondly, just looking out into the coming years, especially with the CEO transition coming up. How should we think about, any discretion on the low end of that range to the extent deals come up? I would imagine that whoever takes the reigns from down here, wouldn’t want to feel handcuffed by a program, should we think of that $2 billion is being aligned in the sand and if something comes along they are still able to do that, how does, how should that transpire?
Don Washkewicz:
We, this is Don. We think that, first of all there is no big acquisition that we’re looking at right now, as I talked about earlier. So the smaller ones that we anticipate coming through will be able to handle those in the normal course, okay. We’re not using every last bit of capacity that we have. So there will be enough capacity to handle a number of smaller ones tuck-in type acquisitions like we’ve – you’ve seen us do on the past pretty effectively. So, I don’t think we will be tying anyone’s hands going forward, as far as the ability to continue down that path and we do want to continue down that path, because we do want to grow the acquisitions as well as internal growth. What was the other question that?
Josh Pokrzywinski – Buckingham:
You got it item both together, so that was helpful and I guess just as a follow-up Don you mentioned, a couple of whale sized properties that you were looking and the space, and you think from an end market perspective that you could share, color on where you guys were focused?
Don Washkewicz:
No I don’t think, I don’t think we want to do that, because of the sensitivity of course of the companies that we’re looking at and the people there. We did have a confidentiality agreement; we are going to honor that even going forward. So, we won’t be disclosing any specifics. Suffice it to say though, these properties has everything we do, makes perfect sense and I would assure you that you would agree with us, would make perfect sense for the company. It’s focused on motion and control, it’s accretive, they are synergistic. Everything that we would do is not going to often and let feel somewhere. So, and it would be good for their company, as we were able to do that. So, I’m still optimistic that down the road that we’ll have another shot at a couple of these potentially. So, but we won’t go on the specifics as far as segment or name or anything for obvious reasons.
Josh Pokrzywinski – Buckingham:
Understood, thank you very much.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you, Josh.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of John Inch with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Thanks, good morning everyone.
Pam Huggins:
Good morning John, welcome.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Good morning Pam, thank you and congratulations.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
So, I just want to ask about the financing again of the share repurchase, I think based on the previous quarter or Q almost all of your cash, Jon was oversees. So, if you, if your sort of stepping this out your dividend is up, and all your cashes oversees did that imply that the repurchase if it’s going to be linear mostly has to be financed with Commercial Paper. And I just, I’m trying to understand the mechanics of how you afford this, it’s in fact it didn’t really have any cash, in the U.S. begin with and you’ve just jacked up your dividend commendably in the U.S. which has to be paid with U.S. dollars?
Jon Marten:
Right, well, all of your facts are absolutely correct, all of the cash on our balance sheet that you were looking at June 30th was oversees and we use the cash that we generate here in the U.S. I think the in order to pay down CP or to take care of ongoing U.S. need. And so, we would do that same for our share repurchase program, we would use the U.S. cash that we generate which is a significant portion of our free cash flow of course. And we would use our credit line that we have established as it is right now on CP in order to work on the program going forward. And so as we model the straight line guidance that we gave to you, because of the cash generating ability of the company we feel that we can fund the share repurchase quite nicely.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
Maybe another way ask this was, if you prior to the dividend increase in share repurchase authorization, you were generating healthy profit in the U.S. and you wouldn’t have the cash on balance sheet. So, where was the cash going that now allows you to use that cash to in turn fund these actions, that’s maybe the better question?
Jon Marten:
I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me John, but in the round numbers, I think we took our notes payable line if you look on our balance sheet down approximately in the last 12 months as we were going through this review of this very big opportunities as Don was talking to you about by a total just for those, just for a total of about $900 million in the last 12 months. That could be wrong from that stat, but that’s if you look at the notes payable line in the reduction and that’s where you will see that.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
And that’s probably the filler. And then just big picture I mean be commendably by $0.25, you know it seems like maybe half of that was below or I’m sorry $0.05 that was below the line $0.19 now from currency, we just sort we had the moving parts and it doesn’t seem like you’re really given that you raise the guidance by $0.10 at the midpoint giving yourself much credit for the opportunity based on improving orders. I mean are you, well I mean how much of the $0.10 if you will comes from an expectation that, these improved orders in North America and oversees actually roll through to the rest of the quarters?
Jon Marten:
Well I think all of the $0.10 is, is really tied into the increased, confidence that we have in our guidance that we set up for the year that we are maintaining in terms of the top-line, but for the translational impact of that you have a strong dollar. So, as we look at that and our guidance. We wanted to take the guidance up by $0.10 and as we kind of added up all the numbers from all around the hurdle that’s the way that, that our calculations came together. And so, I think that our order rates support that, our order rates support our guidance and mind the strongest order rates are in North America and our guidance is over 5% increasing volume in North America. So, I think it ties together quite nicely, looking at the trends in the orders and we feel very confident in our guidance going forward. Hopefully that helps you John.
John Inch – Deutsche Bank:
That is, thank you.
Pam Huggins:
Thank you, John. We are now five minutes past the hour. So, I’m going to turn it over to Don, who will have some closing comments. And I would just like to thank all of you and it is really been a pleasure working with all of you. And hope to talk to you soon.
Don Washkewicz:
So, just a few closing comments. I want to once again thank everybody on the call for joining us this morning to recap our current performance expectations for fiscal 2015 continue positive. Thanks for the restructuring completed in FY’14. Our confidence is reflected in the announcements we just made increasing our dividend 31% and the $2 billion to $3 billion share repurchase program along with a strong quarter to start our fiscal year. As always I will take this opportunity to thank our employees for their continued commitment and success. Our global team has done just an outstanding job executing the win strategy and delivering positive results for the company. I also want to say thanks to all of you on the call for congratulating Pam and her retirement, I know that she is going to miss working with all of you and I will add a special thanks to Pam Huggins for her 30 plus years of service, loyal service to the company and her passion for helping our company and our shareholders. If you have any additional questions Pam and Todd Leombruno will be around the balance of the day. So, I want to thank you once again and have a great day. Bye, bye.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen that concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Pamela J. Huggins - Vice President and Treasurer Donald E. Washkewicz - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jon P. Marten - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance & Administration
Analysts:
Andrew Obin - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Parker Hannifin Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. My name is Crystal, and I will be the operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Ms. Pamela Huggins, Vice President and Treasurer. Please proceed, ma'am.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thanks, Crystal. Good morning, everyone. It's Pam speaking, just as Crystal's mentioned. I'd like to welcome you to Parker Hannifin's fiscal year 2014 and fourth quarter earnings release teleconference. Of course, joining me today is Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, Don Washkewicz; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. For those of you who wish to do so, you can follow today's presentation with the PowerPoint slides that are presented on Parker's website at www.phstock.com. For those of you not online, the slides will remain posted on the company's investor information website at www.phstock.com as well, and they'll be on there 1 year after today's call. At this time, reference Slide #2 in the slide deck, which is the Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement addressing forward-looking statements. And again, please take note of this statement in its entirety if you haven't already done so. This slide also indicates, as required, that in cases where non-GAAP members have been used, they have been reconciled to the appropriate GAAP numbers, and they are also posted on Parker's website. Slide #3. We have the agenda here today. It consists of 4 parts. First, Don Washkewicz, Chairman, CEO and President will provide highlights for the quarter and the year. Second, I'll provide a review, including key performance measures, again, for the year, as well as the fourth quarter, concluding with the guidance for fiscal year 2015. The third part of the call will be our standard Q&A session. And for the fourth part of the call, Don will close with some final comments. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don and ask that you reference Slide #4 titled Highlights, Fiscal Year 2014.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Thank you, Pam, and good morning to everyone on the call. It's great that you were able to take the time to join our call today as we close out our 2014 fiscal year and update you on our progress. This was a transitional year for Parker, and there was a lot of noise in the numbers, as you've seen, and we'll get into that a lot more in the Q&A. However, the significance of this year was that we were able to complete the largest series of restructuring efforts in our history and still deliver strong operating performance that we projected going into the fiscal year. This positions us extremely well heading into fiscal 2015, and sets us up for a continued excellent performance beyond that, and I'm talking about especially into 2016, considering the additional restructuring that we're undertaking. I'm very pleased with where we stand today. Talk a little bit about 2014, the entire year. We witnessed slow economic conditions early in the year but saw improvement as the year progressed. We were able to deliver record sales in this slow growth environment. We also experienced increased year-over-year growth in orders for every quarter in fiscal year 2014. Our total segment operating margin was strong at 13.5%, or 14.3% adjusted for restructuring, and that was led by North American margins of 16.7% on an adjusted basis, and we're certainly very pleased with that performance. Earnings per share for the year increased 10%. The adjustments in this year's earnings included charges related to asset write-downs, a gain associated with our joint venture with General Electric Aviation, and our restructuring activities, all of which that we discussed in prior quarters. Our restructuring activities required a significant amount of management attention, and our team was able to follow through on our commitments to complete those actions. In total, we incurred $104 million in pretax restructuring expenses, and that translates into about $0.49 per diluted share. Operating cash flow for the year was $1.4 billion, or 10.5% of sales, and I'm really pleased with this. This is the 13th consecutive year we generated greater than 10% operating cash flow. So ever since we launched the win strategy, cash flow has been greater than 10% for every fiscal year thereafter. Our use of cash priorities remains the same, as we've stated in the past. Number one is dividends, that's our first priority; acquisitions would follow that; and then, certainly, share repurchases, in that order. We're increasing the dividend 7 -- or we have increased, I should say, the dividend 7% this year, and that extends our long-standing dividend increase record to 58 consecutive fiscal years. We also repurchased $200 million of our own shares throughout the year, and that's a result of our 10b5-1 program, and that program will continue in fiscal 2015. Just a couple of highlights on the quarter. We'll go in a little bit more detail later, but sales were a quarterly record in the fourth quarter at $3.53 billion. So that was good. Earnings for the quarter were $1.98 per diluted share or $2.06 adjusted for $0.08 per diluted share in restructuring expenses. On top of that, we incurred additional onetime restructuring related costs in the quarter, estimated at $0.10 per diluted share, and we can discuss that further, give you some idea as to what those expenses were in the Q&A session. Segment operating margins were strong at 14.5%, or 15% when adjusted for restructuring and, of course, as you know, 15% has been our target for some time. So we're leaving this fiscal year at a pretty nice level here. Operating cash flow was also a quarterly record at just over $500 million, or 16% of sales. Once again, we're in an excellent position entering in the New Year. Just a comment on the outlook. Looking forward to fiscal 2015, we're anticipating another record year and have initiated guidance for adjusted earnings in the range of $7.25 to $8.05 per diluted share, or $7.65 at the midpoint. Keep in mind that the estimates are adjusted for approximately $0.25 per diluted share in additional restructuring efforts in 2015. Pam will now take you through a little bit more detailed review of the results.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thanks, Don. If everybody would reference Slide #6, I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. If you go all the way to the far right side of this slide, adjusted EPS is detailed for fiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2013. These numbers are adjusted for restructuring expenses, the joint venture gain and the asset write-downs that we previously discussed in prior earnings calls. So adjusted for the items just mentioned, earnings per share for the full year of fiscal year 2014 came in at $6.94 and this compares to $6.33 last year. Immediately to the left, adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter are detailed. And fourth quarter earnings are adjusted for restructuring expenses as well. And it came in at $2.06 versus $1.80 for the same quarter last year, an increase of $0.26 or 14%. Restructuring, as Don said, was $0.08 for the quarter, and this compares to $0.02 last year. Full year restructuring cost for fiscal year 2014 was $0.49 and this compares to $0.07 for fiscal year 2013. So just to clarify, because I know there were some confusion around this, that the $2.06, the $0.08 has been added back to the $1.98, it does not include the additional $0.10 that was called out in the press release. So now moving to Slide #7 addressing the earnings per share. This lays out the significant components of the WAC from the adjusted earnings per share of $6.33 that I just mentioned moving to the $6.94 for fiscal year 2014. Here, you can see that the significant items comprising the increase in earnings per share in fiscal year 2014 versus last year is increased segment operating margin of $0.43, so healthy on the operating margin line, and lower below-the-line expenses of $0.13, and this is mainly due to less pension expense that is cost-light, in the other line, below segment operating margin and lower interest cost. The lower tax rate also contributed $0.05. So moving to Slide 8, addressing the quarter and again, laying out the components of the WAC from the adjusted earnings per share of the $1.80 for the fourth quarter last year to the $2.06 for the fourth quarter of this year. And again, these numbers are adjusted for restructuring cost. The significant component comprising the increase again, segment operating margins of $0.13, and this is mainly due to North American aerospace offset by international, $0.05, and lower below-the-line expenses of $0.10, again, due to lower pension expense of $0.05 and lower incentive compensation included in corporate G&A of $0.05. And then, of course, the lower tax rate contributed $0.03. So moving to Slide #9. And again, I'd ask -- this is a busy schedule, obviously, but if you go all the way to the right, the highlighted blue box, sales adjusted for the joint venture is shown, and it shows an increase in sales for the full year of 2.5% versus fiscal 2013. Acquisitions and currency offset for the most part, resulting in little over 2% organic growth. In the fourth quarter, however, which is detailed in blue on the left, you can see that adjusted organic or reported sales increased 4%. So it did pick up in the fourth quarter, 3.8% on an organic basis and 4.4% on a reported basis, so happy to see that. The difference between organic and reported is currency, which was positive in the quarter, adding another 0.6% So looking at the adjusted margins for the full year. Excluding restructuring costs, they're at 14.3% versus 13.9% last year, nice improvement. And for the fourth quarter, adjusted margins reached 15%, and this compares to 14.7% for last [Audio Gap] Restructuring cost in the quarter, $18 million, which is the $0.18 that we talked about versus restructuring cost last year of $4 million. And as you know, restructuring costs for the year, as Don mentioned, $104 million. However, $2 million of that $104 million fell below the line in other, and $102 million, as detailed on this page, is included in segment operating income. The higher segment operating income this year of $1,892,000,000 versus $1,804,000,000 last year, it's really due to higher volume in industrial North America and international, favorable product mix in North America and then realignment savings, or restructuring savings and international, offset by restructuring-related expenses. So let's move to Slide 10 and address the segments, starting with North America. Again, on the right side of the page, for the full year, North American reported revenues increased slightly to $5.69 billion, and that's from $5.68 billion last year. Adjusting for the unfavorable currency impact of 0.5%, mainly Canadian currency and the contribution from acquisitions of almost 1 point organic growth increase, close to 1%. Looking to the left and addressing the quarter. Organic and reported revenues increased 4% in the fourth quarter of this year. Acquisitions had no impact on this segment, and the currency impact was minimal. Adjusted operating income for 2014 increased to $949 million from $911 million in fiscal year 2013. That's a 4% increase, mainly the result of higher volume, favorable product mix and, of course, tight cost control. Adjusting -- adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter increased to $269 million from $251 million for the same quarter last year, and again, mainly the result of higher volume. So moving to Slide #11, addressing Diversified Industrial, international. Here, for the full year, organic revenues increased 3%. Currency had no impact, and acquisitions increased revenue by a little less than 1%. So as such, reported revenues increased 3.5% for the year, moving from $5.1 billion last year to $5.3 billion this year. The increased sales in this segment were due to higher volume in Europe, where sales actually increased 5.5%. For the fourth quarter, organic sales increased 1%. Currency contributed 2% to sales, resulting in a reported sales increase of slightly over 3%. Adjusting for realignment cost, operating margin for the full year increased to 12.7% from 12% as the result of this higher volume that I just mentioned and then, of course, savings on the realignment activities, which were partially offset by realignment-related expenses. For the quarter, adjusted operating margins declined from 12.4% to -- of sales to 11.2%. And again, this is due to the restructuring-related expenses that we've been mentioning and the unfavorable product mix, partially offset by the higher volume and the savings from the restructuring activities. Our restructuring costs in this segment were $17 million in the fourth quarter versus $3 million a year ago. So now moving to aerospace, reported in organic revenues, adjusted for the previously announced joint venture, increased slightly more than 4% in the year. The impact of acquisitions and currency, of course, negligible in this segment, as it usually is. And revenues increased mainly due to higher commercial OEM business. For the quarter, revenues increased 8.6%, and this is mainly due to higher commercial OEM business. Operating margins for the year were relatively flat due to a higher mix of OEM versus MRO business, less defense business, of course, and unusual new program expenses. Adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter increased to $105 million from $86 million for the same quarter last year, again due to the higher volume. And then we had multiple settlements relating to contractual negotiations included in those numbers. So let's move to orders. And just to remind everyone, these numbers represent a trailing average, and they're reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, of course, excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency. Diversified Industrial uses a 3-month average, while aerospace systems uses a 12-month average. So as you can see from the slide, total orders were positive 4% for the June quarter just ended. This represents 4 quarters of positive numbers. Diversified Industrial North American orders just ended, increased 6%. International decreased 4% for the quarter, but this is really a comp issue. We were up against a tough comparison. And then aerospace, of course, increased 17% for the quarter. So going to the balance sheet. Parker's balance sheet remains strong. Cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet at yearend was $2.2 billion, partially offset by outstanding Commercial Paper of a little more than $800 million. DSI, or days sales and inventory, came in at 61 days, and this is a 5-day improvement sequentially versus the third quarter. And inventory now is 10.4% of sales. This is an all-time record for Parker and an improvement versus last quarter, where inventory as a percent of sales was 11%. Accounts receivable, DSO closed at 48. This is a 2-day improvement from last quarter, as well as last year. And weighted average days payable outstanding at the end of June was 58, again, a 2-day improvement sequentially from the March quarter end. Moving to cash flow here. If you adjust for the pension contributions of $75 million and $226 million, respectively, in fiscal year 2014 and 2013, cash flow from operations of $1.5 billion or 11.1% of sales compares to $1.4 billion last year or 10.9% of sales. In addition to the cash flow from operation, proceeds of more than $200 million were received from investing activities. Addressing the major uses of cash in the year, $478 million returned to the shareholders via share repurchase of $200 million and, of course, our dividend payments of $278 million. Commercial Paper outstanding paid down $515 million in the year, and we utilized $216 million, or 1.6% in connection with CapEx. We also used $625 million in the purchase of marketable securities and other investments during the quarter. So as a result of this and more, the cash on hand declined by about $168 million year-over-year. So moving to guidance for fiscal year 2015. Just to address the question of why we would be providing guidance on an adjusted basis. This is the beginning of a new year for us. We've had requests do that. We looked at it very seriously, and we said that, "Hey, we looked at the comps, we looked at the comparable companies to us, and all of them provided on an adjusted basis." So at your request that this year, in line with our culture of continuous improvement, we're presenting the numbers on an adjusted basis, excluding restructuring. Sales growth is adjusted for the GE joint venture, and segment operating margins and earnings per share exclude restructuring. So on this slide, we've detailed adjusted sales growth, adjusted segment operating margins below the line items, tax, shares outstanding, and reported and adjusted earnings per share. So we're giving you a lot of information here. Beginning at the top addressing sales. Adjusted sales are expected to increase between 2% and 5%. The majority of this growth is organic as there is no impact from acquisition carryover. The projection for currency contributes 0.4% of sales for the year. And remember, we don't forecast acquisitions that may be done next year in these numbers. Adjusted segment operating margins. They're forecasted to be between 15.2% and 15.9%, very healthy segment operating margins, the midpoint of 15.6%. And this compares to 14.3% for 2014 on an adjusted basis. The projection for below-the-line items, which include corporate admin, interest and other, is $490 million for the year, and the full year tax rate is projected at 29%. The number of outstanding shares that we used in the guidance is 151.4 million. So for the full year, as Don said, guidance on an adjusted earnings per share basis is $7.25 to $8.05, midpoint, $7.65. And again, that excludes restructuring of $50 million, approximately, to be incurred in fiscal year 2015, and this is a partial carryover from 2014 and nearly initiated restructuring, which is going to enhance the position of this company moving into fiscal year 2016. The effect of this restructuring on earnings per share is $0.25, with $0.07 each in the first and second quarter, $0.06 in the third quarter and $0.05 in the fourth quarter. Just a couple of salient points with respect to guidance. Sales are divided 48%, or 6.5 -- $1 billion in the first half; 52%, or $7.1 billion second half; segment operating income, first half, second half is divided 44% in the first half, 56% in the second half; earnings per share, first half, second half, 41%, 59%, or $3.15 billion in the first half and $4.5 billion at the midpoint in the second half, and this excludes restructuring. First quarter adjusted earnings per share is projected to be at $1.64 at the midpoint, and this excludes $0.07 of restructuring costs. So just to show you the WAC from fiscal year 2014 up to the forecast or the guidance for fiscal year 2015. Again, the significant items comprising the increase. Segment operating margin of $1.11, and $0.74 of this is international, obviously, because of all the restructuring that's taken place in this year. This is offset by a higher tax rate and higher below-the-line expenses of $0.16, and this is due mainly to less favorable results from market-driven benefits. We have some benefits that are highly dependent on the performance of the market, and the market was very favorable last year and we're not anticipating that it's going to be as favorable this year. So for published estimates, we please ask you to exclude the restructuring expenses and hopefully, I explained why. So if everybody is ready, at this time, we'll commence with our standard Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Andrew Obin from Bank of America.
Andrew Obin - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
So the question on international margin in the fourth quarter. You did highlight the restructuring, but can you just talk about mix? Because it seems that operating profit was still down despite higher volume. And the question we've been getting from a lot of investors, is restructuring on track? Is that really what's dragging the industrial margin -- international margin? Can you talk about it in more detail?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. Andrew, Jon here. Yes, for the international margins in Q4. One of the reasons that we decided to put in to one of the major sub-bullets in the press release that we wanted to make sure that we explained was, for the quarter, we only had $0.08 in restructuring. We had anticipated a little bit more than that. Part of that answer for the difference between those 2 numbers has to do with the FY '15 guidance and the restructuring in FY '15. But to answer your questions directly. If you remember, we have $60 million in restructuring in Q3, and that $60 million in restructuring in Q3, as we are executing on all of those restructurings, and as we are starting to get reorganized, as we are starting to take a look at exactly what is required for us in the future, given the different levels of employment, given the different configurations of our factories, started to have an impact on us in ways that we had not expected fully. And so we had some additional costs that we're not used to seeing. We called out $0.10. I'm sure we can call out more than $0.10. That impacted our international margins. We look at that as a onetime impact to our international margins for Q4 for these restructuring-related costs. And if you can imagine, trying to reconfigure our factories, trying to move product lines, trying to finalize all of the requirements of executing on all of these projects, costs were incurred, and we wanted to make sure that we explained that in a very transparent way.
Andrew Obin - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
And just a follow-up question. Just to touch on capital allocation specifically, dividend. Over the past several months, I've seen a lot of your, well, not peers, but even machinery companies have raised their dividend payout ratios. And your dividend payout ratio now even lags, Joy, Cummins, forget about multi-industrial names. You have stated that dividend is the top priority for the company. So how do I square the fact that you have one of the most stable cash flows of anybody, and one of the lowest payout ratios than anybody? What do you guys think about that?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, this is Don, Andrew. The -- first of all, dividends is #1. There's no question about it. It's #1. We've done a lot with dividends over the last number of years. I think over the last 5 years, we were almost up 100%, somewhere in that vicinity. So it's not like we haven't done anything, and we recognize what you're talking about that we were low -- a little bit low. But the other things that have been happening here that, in a positive sense, is that we're generating a hell of a lot more money in this company. And so this is kind of a high-class problem. We're trying to catch up to where our performance has been running. In '14 -- fiscal '14, we increased the dividend of about 7%. Last year, we increased it to 10%. And I stated that, in this coming year, probably January timeframe, we'll be looking for another increase in the dividend. Our payout was -- our old target was 25%. Our new target's 30%. We're going to do that over a period of a couple of years. We're inching our way there. We're at about 27% right now, and we're going to be moving that up to 30%. But it won't happen all at one time. We're planning to do it in a logical fashion, kind of a gradual fashion, get up to 30%. So -- and of course, we want to maintain the 58-year record that we have, so we're going to continue this for the foreseeable future. I don't anticipate this ever stopping. We'll continue to raise dividends onto the future.
Andrew Obin - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division:
But 30% would only get you involved with machinery guys.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, it all depends on what else we have that we're trying to do here, too. I think the other priorities are acquisitions. We have done a lot of acquisitions in the past. We anticipate continuing to want to do acquisitions. So our priority beyond maintaining some reasonable parity with the rest of the pack is to grow the company and put the money into acquisitions and new product development, things like that. So if we don't have good places to put the money, of course, we can always go back to dividends and hit dividends a little bit harder in the future. I don't anticipate that's going to be the case, at least, not in the foreseeable future, but it could be down the road.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Can we just talk a little bit more about the restructuring and the issues that you have there? Is this just simply moving product lines has been more difficult? Or are you finding that you have to do more restructuring because things are just not very bright in Europe and in rest of the world? Just a little bit more around what actually is going on in the restructuring.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes, Ann. This is Don, I guess I can maybe add a little bit to what we've said earlier. I think when you -- and I've been through enough restructurings in my career, so I can tell you pretty much first hand that this is nothing different than what we've seen in the past. We just haven't done one this big in the past. A lot of this has to do with closing facilities, opening facilities in other locations. You got more scrap, you got lower productivity in the new place. You got people that, frankly, are working at a slower pace, knowing that they're going to lose their jobs, so that's production variance in the existing locations, anticipating a move to the new location. So you've got some of that going on. There were some profit-sharing issues that we ran into through negotiations in one of the countries that cost us little bit more. This is a onetime thing. I think the -- and then we have some ongoing challenges from the standpoint that in some of the contracts that we negotiated in a particular region, some of that's hinged on to actual expense. The specific expense will depend on the ability of the employees that were let go, them finding work. So some of that is variable and still yet to be determined, but that happens as well. A couple of other things that -- areas that you got to keep in mind is the overlap. When you're closing on one factory, you're starting up in another factory or moving product lines, you're double staffing. You got to keep the staff in the old facility, while you're moving to the new facility because you got to still serve the customer while you're going through this training period. I'd like to use the example of running a product, say, at 50 feet a minute is normal in the old facility or existing facility. You don't start up at 50 feet a minute in the new facility. You start up at 10 and maybe go to 20, then 30 and 40. So over a period of time, you get up to that efficiency that you're running in the old facility. But in the meantime, you 'regenerating variances. All these variances that I'm talking about are flowing through our P&L. And believe me, they are impossible to capture. John was talking earlier about $0.10. $0.10 is just the top portion of that, that we're trying to grasp but nobody is out there monitoring every nib here as we go through this restructuring. We've got more important things to do. We just know that the number is a lot bigger than that, but we're just letting that flow through the P&Ls. The other things that you might run into as -- and I know we did, cleaning up the old factory. As you prepare -- as you clean it out and you get it ready to sell, you got to clean it up, you got to clean up the surroundings and whatever. That's all expense that flows through the P&L. And then airfreight. I could give you an example, but I won't of airfreight as to where we found some of our airfreight. It was an unfortunate situation that happened with a plane crash. But airfreight is certainly part of the challenge because you've got facilities that are not running at the same speed that they should be. Customers still want their product when they want it. So we put more product into air. All of those additional expenses end up flowing through the P&L. So I know that's a lot, but that's basically what we're facing. We're just not -- we're not able to capture every penny of that, and we're not trying to. We captured $0.10 pretty easily, but there's probably another 2x or 3x that, that flows through the P&L we're not even capturing.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay, Don. That's good color. So just in summary, I just want to make sure that what you're saying is that it's not that demand is weaker than you expected in international markets and you have to cut deeper, it's just that getting through all of the changes that you've laid out is just costing you more. Is that -- am I interpreting that correctly?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
That's correct. It's the inefficiencies of moving operations from the status quo to something else than a status quo. That's exactly right.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And then just my follow-up question. If you could give us your normal color on your 3/12s and 12/12s by end market, that would be great.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Okay. Well, maybe I'll start with the PMIs. I kind of like to kind of through those. Just looking at those, and we look at these on a monthly basis and on a quarterly basis, the -- right now -- and we're tracking -- we typically track all of them here, but the ones that I look at closely are the global PMI, the U.S., the Eurozone, Germany being a good representative of a stronger country in Europe and China and Brazil. So those are kind of the ones we look at. Just characterize the 3 points what we're seeing. First of all, all the PMIs are greater than 50%, which is a good sign, with one exception, and that's Brazil, which is running at about 49%. So that's good. They're all -- all of those areas that I just mentioned are greater than 50%. The largest increase, or largest PMI increase is, I should say, from March to July timeframe were in 2 areas, one was U.S. and the other was China. And both of those increased 3 points, which is a pretty strong increase. We don't often see a 3-point jump. But both in the U.S. and in China, we saw 3-point jumps. And then the largest PMI in absolute numbers right now is North America and U.S., which is running at about 57%. So that's a real strong rate of activity in North America. So that's kind of the PMI trend. If you look at some of our markets, I'm going to give you some of the strong ones. Actually, the list of strong ones are -- it's getting pretty long relative to the negative market trends and the flat ones. The strong ones would be commercial aftermarket and OEM. On the aerospace side, that's a strong segment for us. Distribution remains strong, extremely strong. I'll talk a little bit about the 3/12s there in a minute. Machine tools, power generation, telecom, oil and gas, marine, off-highway construction and mining, all strong -- mining, of course, coming off of a low base, but you're seeing some pickup in activity there even though it's at a low level. Also strong right now when you look at the 3/12s and 12/12s is the heavy-duty trucks. And then lastly, on the refrigeration and air-conditioning side, both industrial and commercial refrigeration and then residential and commercial air-conditioning are both positive. So you could see that's a pretty long list. But I'd have to say being led by distribution, keep in mind, distribution is half of our North America -- half of our industrial business, rather, is distribution. Having that segment being that strong, I think, helps offset some of the weaker OEM segments that we see. So then on the negative side, or negative trends, we would have the defense part of our aerospace business, both on the OEM and MRO. Semiconductor being negative now, pharma and ag, finally turned negative, that had been going strong for some time, and that's turned negative. Forestry and then general industrial segments. So those will be the negative ones. You can see the list is relatively short. And then flat segments would be -- market segments or market trends would be life sciences, cars and light trucks, process and industrial trucks and material handling. So that would be -- those will be the flat segments. Then if we look at the regions, and you see some of this in your number, you don't see quite this detail in the order trend number but I'll just kind of highlight for you what the regions look like on a 3/12, 12/12. Of course, North America being very strong right now, 3/12 track and well above 100% in the neighborhood of 106%, 107%. And then 12/12, well above 100% as well. We see a weakening trend in Europe. Not significant but nevertheless, a weakening trend on a 3/12, just slightly under 100%. So that's actually going to drag the 12/12 down a little bit. 12/12's still tracking slightly above 100%. Flat segment would be Asia. 3/12's running around 100%. 12/12's running a little bit above 100%, and then weakening -- what we see as a weakening trend is Latin America. And that's dropped down on a 3/12 basis to about 90%. So when you look at the order trend numbers we give you on a quarterly basis, we don't give you quite that same detail, but I'm giving you a little bit more color here on those specific segments that you wouldn't normally see. So then looking at some of those markets that I've talked about before. On an order trend basis, again distribution being strong, the 3/12 level on distribution runs at 110%. So you can see that's a real strong segment for us, and the 12/12 is running around 108%. So that continues to be extremely strong. Heavy-duty truck, likewise, is running around 110% on a 3/12, which is really good. Improving is construction, although at a lower level that we're seeing, that's slightly above 100% on a 3/12. Semicon, I mentioned, is softening. That's running around 80% on a 3/12. Ag is weakening. That's around 85% on a 3/12. Again, these are our numbers, our order entry numbers, they might not match exactly what you see in the rest of the marketplace or with other peer companies or whatever. This is what we're seeing. Process markets are flat. And then aerospace, of course, is very strong at 3/12 running around 120%, but keep in mind, there's -- a lot of these orders can be up further than this fiscal year. And in fact, in many cases, here in aerospace, they have or they are beyond this fiscal year. So that would be kind of a recap on the markets and some of the order trends.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
So my first question is on the industrial international guidance and specifically the margins. If you take a baseline of an adjusted margin of 12.7% for this year, you're still looking for, at the midpoint, 250 basis points in margin expansion in industrial international. Included there are a variety of different moving parts. You called out the $0.10 in onetime costs. There's some kind of underlying incremental margin number that you're embedding, but there's also benefits that are expected to come through. So I was wondering if you could touch on those 3 key points and what your expectations are for the margin ramp for next year.
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I think, Joe, in international industrial for next year, by our worksheets that we have here, we are showing that we're going to, first, recoup all the savings that we had from this year, which is, for the entire year, at around $60 million. We'll also get some of the savings that we're incurring in the restructuring that we're doing for FY '15 in the margins for international. Most of the restructuring that we're doing in FY '15 is affecting the international operations or industrial. And then with a very, very modest marginal return on sales for the industrial international at the beginning of the year, and then ramping up as the year goes on, this gets to the, what Pam was talking about, the 41, 59 EPS impact first half, second half. A major driver there is what we're expecting as the year goes on for the international margins for us. So yes, it's a big number, and we all have detailed it out very -- in a great amount of detail. And we know your notation of it, too, here because we are expecting that to really help drive our record results for next year.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And I guess, maybe just following on there -- a couple of follow-ons for that. The -- one, can you quantify the FY '15 restructuring savings that you expect to come through? And then further, it seems like you took on additional costs to the tune of $0.10, call it roughly $20 million. How do you gain comfort that while you're going through this restructuring, that you're not going continue to see additional costs pop up?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, number one, Joe, that will be a risk. I mean, we feel like we've got it monitored in there for FY '15. As Don talked about, we don't do this all the time. We're not experts at it. But what we did in FY '14 was the biggest in the history of the company by a factor of more than 5x. And so we're not experts at it, but we do feel like that, as we were putting our estimates together for FY '15, that all of our operating groups around the world were in the midst of those issues. And so we've got that duly geared into our estimates for FY '15 by unit, by region for the year. And then to answer your other question, Joe, we're expecting the $50 million in restructuring for next year, $23 million in pretax savings.
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And then you called out -- in the quarter, I think you called out some -- I think you said specifically in the aero segment, there were some multiple settlements to contract negotiations. What was the impact of that to the quarter?
Jon P. Marten:
I don't have that number on the top of my head, but to give you a sense of what that is, our guidance for next year is about 150 basis points better than our return on sales for this year. So we feel like our go-forward run rate for next year is 13.5%. So whatever that 13.5% versus that result for the Q4, that would be, in round numbers, the unusual lumpy, in this case, for this quarter, good news in our results. So we wouldn't want to give you the impression that we could hit that run rate that we saw in Q4 going forward. Does that answer your question, Joe?
Joseph Alfred Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Yes. And I guess I can follow up after for the exact number.
Operator:
Our next question will come from Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
So Don, let's start with my side question every quarter. You've obviously got a very strong balance sheet. Haven't got any M&A across the line for about 6 quarters now. Why no buyback?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, Nathan, you haven't been paying attention. We did get one across the line.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Anything of meaningful size?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
It was a tiny one, though, Nathan. But anyway, no. With respect to acquisitions, first of all, I just have to just tell you where we're at on that. We're looking at a lot, okay? There's no question, we're looking at a lot. We are in due diligence on some, okay, right now as we speak, and we expect to get some through. Still, the values are high, so it's a challenge on some of these getting to where you want to get to. For everyone 100 we look at, we maybe get through due diligence at 10. So it's hard to predict just where we're going to end up, but we do have some activity going on as we speak. And we realize that we have plenty of capacity to do these. So this is where we'd like to spend the money. But having said that, as I said in the past, and I will repeat just for everybody on the call that if we don't get these across the finish line, our priority then falls to share repurchase. And I told you last -- I think it was last year that I was going to do that by the end of this year, and this will be this calendar year, which we're closing out here in the next few months. So we would go into the share repurchase mode if I don't get enough of these acquisitions to the finish line.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Does that imply that it's your expectation or that some of these deals are pretty close to getting done?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, in all different stages, I can't -- I cannot predict because every time I think that we're just about there, sometimes things happen, and I just -- it puts the brakes on. So I can just tell you that we are in due diligence on several right now. And so we'll see. I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get something or some of these through.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay. And my follow-up question is on the North American industrial margin guidance for next year. You've talked on the call today about distribution being very strong, above average growth, which is obviously a much higher margin for you. You've got 5% midpoint organic revenue growth, and the margin guidance at the midpoint is flat. Is there some kind of pricing pressure or something else that's holding those margins back?
Jon P. Marten:
I think that on the top level, Nathan, is our view of the marketplace that we are at all-time record high margins for us in North America. And as we were putting our guidance together for FY '15, we, of course, have our target of 30% marginal return on sales at this stage of the cycle. But we could not get to that level. We're at a little shy of that. As we dig into it a little bit deeper, there are various reasons for that. Most of the reasons have to do with our investments and some of our new technologies, our R&D that we're trying to do, trying to secure our growth for the future, and that is having an impact on the margin and return on sales in North America in our guidance for FY '15.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Could you quantify the impact of the investments in R&D?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I can tell you this, that it is broad-based. It is deep. We are focused on it in every single group. It's hard for me to give you a number right now, but that is certainly the lion's share, the vast majority of the difference for the -- our normal 30 versus what you would see right now, which is about, as you said, 18 or 15. So it's the lion's share, Nathan, but I can't get any more granular than that with you here this call today.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Andy Casey from Wells Fargo Securities.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Just to go back to an earlier question and Jon's response to it. Is the roughly flattish Q1 outlook for earnings driven entirely by an expectation that you need another quarter to clear out the international industrial issues? Or is it -- is there something else?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. There's several different issues there, Andy. One of them is, again, our restructuring that we'll be doing in Q1. One of them is our investments in the R&D that we're in the midst of in many, many of our North American operations. And then if you -- when you dig into it and you look at Q1 in our guidance versus Q1 last year, there is a significant number that is negative for us in the FY '15 guidance due to our tax rate that we're going to be using, which is 29%, and which assumes our run rate here for FY '15.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. And then on the $0.16 headwind from corporate interest and other. Could you give a little bit more color as to what's going on there?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Yes. One of the things I want to mention as well, Andy. We had a pickup in pension expense last year of about $0.17, and that doesn't repeat this year. Every -- that doesn't repeat this year as well. So that is affecting the first quarter, as well as all of the quarters. So I just wanted to mention that. And then as far as corporate. We have always said that corporate runs about 1.5% of sales. Now last year, it did run a little less than that. And this year, it's running about at the 1.5% of sales. But again, it gets back to what I said earlier. We have some incentive programs that are based on the performance of the market. And the market performed very well last year, and it's not expected to perform at that same level. We haven't built that in. So that's really the difference that you're seeing there.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Eli Lustgarten from Longbow Securities.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Can we talk a little bit more about the -- some of the top line assumptions there? I guess I'm surprised that aerospace also shows a negligible adjusted change, a couple of percent, given the concentration on orders. I think it's pushed out, or what's going on? In the slide deck, you talked about the R&D spending here. Is that what's driving the margin up? And then the same question for Diversified Industrial North America, with the long lines of favorable 3/12 and 12/12 curve. I guess I'm sort of a little surprised that you're running with a low- to mid-single-digit type of top line gain.
Jon P. Marten:
Well, Eli, first on the aerospace answer. The major driver there that is impacting us for FY '15 is our inability to generate revenues due to the sequestration, which is now is finally catching up with us. And if you take a look at a couple of major programs, military OEM programs, they are starting to impact us in FY '15. And those 2 major programs is what is really taking our prior run rate in Aerospace at about 8%. In normal times, we'll be around 4% or 5%. We're also seeing the impact in FY '15 of the elimination of sales due to the closure of the joint venture that we did with our engine partner in FY '14. So that's impacting the numbers also as you look at the...
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
You're right. 2% to 3% was an adjusted number against the already taken out the...
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. The major driver there, if you've got the GE JV in your numbers there, the major driver then is the 2 military OEM programs, JSF, C17, which are impacting us. And it is having an impact on us and has what is the major reason for taking down our historical growth rates that we've seen in the past.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Will that be for the foreseeable future? In other words, until we get some sort of change of policy, do we have to carry that into '16 the same basis?
Jon P. Marten:
Certainly, the C17 is very grim right now. So that will be 1/2 of it. The JSF could come back. But I think the growth rates for aerospace normalized going forward past FY '15 within the 5% to 6% range, not the numbers that you're seeing here for some of the gaps that we're seeing here for FY '15. And Eli, for your question on North America. We felt like that those numbers are in line with what we're seeing with our orders. I know that distributions are up significantly, but when we're doing that guidance, of course, as you know, it includes the OEM and that drives that number down a little bit. And so we felt like that's a number that really fairly represents what's been happening with the orders for North America over time, which is very, very healthy for us.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
And that number is why you have relatively flat margins for North America?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, relatively flat only because of our investment in R&D that we're really focusing in on. And again, Eli, we're at the 16%, 17% ROS range there, and it -- those are record levels for us. We've done that before, but we've not done appreciably higher than that before ever. We want to. We are aspirational, and we expect that, but this is not something that we would put in our full year guidance for FY '15.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Would you care to comment about order cadence maybe through the quarter? Anything that you might have seen maybe in August thus far, rather July?
Jon P. Marten:
I think that -- first, for July. July is supportive of our guidance. I don't want to give you any overly optimistic response or a pessimistic response. It's just kind of supportive of our guidance in July. And I think that's probably the question that you've -- that you're getting to. So we're looking at it very, very carefully. And of course, we're aware of the macro picture, and we understand where the markets are moving and where they're trending is done, laid out in the 3/12. And so we are, right now, comfortable with our guidance.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay. Then if may press you a little bit here. I'm looking at industrial international, and I understand that the quarter had a tough comp from an order standpoint. But your orders are -- were down 4%, and you're guiding for revenue growth for fiscal '15. So I'm trying to understand, given that you're comps are getting tougher going forward, where is it that you're expecting acceleration? Any particular region or end market? What gives you that confidence?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. I think that -- on that, by region, and I appreciate you pointing out the tough comps because that's clearly an issue for us here for the international. But the -- we are seeing Asia start to very slowly but surely move up. And we are -- I've got a projection out there for a 3 -- almost 3.5% growth for Asia for us all together in FY '15, much less so in Europe and negative in Latin America.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Jamie Cook from Credit Suisse.
Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
I'll just keep it short just because we're already post the hour. I guess, just, Jon, back to the balance sheet again. The M&A is taking longer to happen. The payout ratio is still below your peers. You haven't really done much on that share repurchase. I mean, is there -- as we think about the end of calendar year 2014 where you sort of -- you drew the line in the sand, is there a way for us to -- how we should think about a targeted debt-to-capital ratio? I mean, how should we think about that towards the end of the year because your balance sheet, still, is underutilized or are you sort of backing away from having a more efficient balance sheet?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, good question, Jamie. No, I'd -- we'd like to ultimately have more efficient balance sheet, for sure. And like I said, it'll be a meaningful -- if we don't get the acquisitions done because it's been, like you said, 1.5 years now. We've been talking about this. We got a couple of tiny ones through, but it's not going to move the needle. So if we don't do something, it'll be a meaningful share repurchase, let me put it that way. And that will be moving in the direction of getting our leverage back up, maybe not as high as it was in the past, but it's certainly up considerably from where we are right now. And then going on into the next year, I would say that, that same trend would continue. If we don't do the acquisitions, we will be prompt and do the share repurchase and/or dividend increases, like I mentioned before, because we do want to raise the dividend over time. But I think we'll be able to do both, especially with the level of margin performance that we're generating here, earnings performance. I think we'll be able to do both.
Operator:
Our next question will come from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Most of my questions have been answered, but I'm just curious, and I apologize if this is a slightly impolite question, Don. But I think you're probably going to retire in this coming fiscal year. Please correct me if I'm wrong. But if I'm not, is there anything you'd like to tell us about what that transition might look like timing-wise or anything else?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, I knew we should have cut that question. Yes. We have a kind of a policy here, which I haven't changed. That is a 65 years age policy as far as retirement from this position. So that will happen this calendar year, this coming calendar 2015. And the exact date has not been finalized with the Board. I think those discussions are happening as we speak. Our intent would be to -- my replacement -- my intention would have my replacement come from inside the company. And I think we have some very good candidates in the company under consideration. So that's what I can tell you right now is that yes, you're correct. 2015 would be the year that I would step down as CEO. The question then going beyond that would be what -- in what capacity, if any, would I continue with the company. And of course, that has to be decided by the board as well. But for sure, the CEO -- President/CEO title would be given up sometime this year.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
So it sounds like you're telling me, calendar '15, and I said fiscal '15. Is that a distinction you're trying to make?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
No. Actually, my birthday doesn't come until next fiscal. So technically, I could stay on beyond this fiscal year. But that's why I just say it's the calendar year. And if you want to, I can tell you what date, if you want to send anything.
Operator:
And our final question will come from the line of Nicole from Morgan Stanley.
Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
So just a quick clarification, Pam. When you guys gave the EPS breakdown from 1 half to 2 half, did you say that was including restructuring?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Yes. We gave adjusted guidance that excludes restructuring. And we're asking that you put your estimates out there under the same...
Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
So when you said the 41% to 59% breakdown, that was excluding restructuring as well?
Pamela J. Huggins:
That is correct.
Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley, Research Division:
Okay, got it. And then the restructuring. Is that going to be -- it seems like you guys are expecting to realize the bulk or all of the payback next year. So is it fair to assume that the restructuring is going to be front-end loaded as well?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, right now, it's about 60% front-end loaded, yes. But there will be some in the second half, Nicole, so we want to make sure that we say that to you, too.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Okay. Thank you. I think at this time, we'll turn it over to Don, who has some closing comments.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. Just a couple of comments, and then I'll make some additional remarks. But first of all, some things to remember about fiscal '15 that we covered here, just kind of a recap is that, we're going to have another $50 million in restructuring. I look at that as a positive as far as the outlook for the future. And so just keep that in the back of your mind. We'll have record -- we're projecting record operating margins for next fiscal year. We -- if you take the restructuring out, we'll be at a record. If you include it in the numbers, we'll be at -- we'll tie the all-time record for the company. So we're -- the restructuring we did this fiscal year was exactly what we needed to be working on and produced exactly the kind of results that we wanted to produce going forward to build on this foundation that we have. So I'm really excited about where we're at and what it means for fiscal '15. I hope everybody's happy with the 15.6% numbers that we're putting out there as far as operating margins. 3% growth, I think is -- hey, if some of these segments come back, like if Europe comes back, or if Latin America comes back, or if anything comes back, I mean, it can grow from that base. But we feel comfortable with the 3% based on what we see happening out there right now. Of course, we're going to have an opportunity to refresh that with you every quarter going forward. And if we see something strengthening, we can certainly change that top line number. But I -- we feel pretty confident now. As you mentioned, we have a strong balance sheet, and I appreciate the comments about how we're going to utilize the capacity that we have. Is hope that I was clear as to what our intent is. Yes, we do want to move our leverage up back where it used to be or closer to that point, so we will be taking actions this calendar year to do that, one way or the other. And then I think if you -- it's not too much of a stretch. If you look at the restructuring we're planning to do on '15, and you look at the fact that we're already at 15.5%, or 15.6% operating margin, we -- and I'll be the first one to go out and say this. Maybe I'll get hit here by the rest of my team, but 16% by '16 might be in the cards. As long as we maintain some tailwind here, I think you can see we're not -- we're within striking distance of that. And that would be a fantastic accomplishment for the company. Again, I'm not here forecasting '16 for you, I just want to give you an indication of how you might be thinking about long-term forecast for the company. I think we've certainly done so much this last year to position ourselves for a great '15 and beyond that I think you're going to like the answer as we go forward. So I want to just lastly then, just thank everyone on the call for joining us. Of course, like I said, it has been a transitional year, and it was necessary to go through this rightsizing, if you will, of our operations, particularly in Europe. Those changes are never easy, and they're not easy on the team. The management team worked very hard on this, and I'm happy to say that we accomplished what we set out to accomplish and we hit our targets that we wanted to do. I also like to take this opportunity to thank our global team for their diligence and hard work on executing all of our fiscal 2014 plans. Like I said, we're in a much stronger position now to deliver on our goal of 15% segment operating margins and fiscal year '15 and really now, even more so, over the cycle. That's kind of where we're heading here as we move these margins up. We want it that 15% over the cycle. And I think we're well on our way to being able to do that. I want to thank everyone on the call for your continued interest and support of the company, and I want to wish everyone a great day. And then lastly, Pam will be around for the balance of the day if you have any additional questions, she'll be taking calls, along with Todd, throughout the balance of the afternoon. So have a good day. Thank you.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.
Executives:
Pamela J. Huggins - Vice President and Treasurer Donald E. Washkewicz - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jon P. Marten - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance & Administration
Analysts:
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Quarter 3 2014 Parker Hannifin Corp Earnings Conference Call. My name is Carolyn, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, the call is being recorded for replay purposes. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Pamela Huggins. Please go ahead.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thanks, Carolyn. Good morning, everyone. This is Pam Huggins speaking, just as Carolyn said. And I'd like to welcome you to Parker Hannifin's third quarter fiscal year 2014 earnings release teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman, CEO and President, Don Washkewicz; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Jon Marten. For those of you who wish to do so, you can follow today's presentation with the PowerPoint slides that have been presented on Parker's website at www.phstock.com. For those of you who aren't on the line today, the slides will remain posted on the company's investor information website 1 year after today's call. At this time, reference Slide #2 on the slide deck, which is the Safe Harbor disclosure statement, which addresses forward-looking statements. And we ask that you please take note of this statement in its entirety if you haven't already done so. The slide also indicates, as required, that where -- in cases where non-GAAP numbers have been used, they've been reconciled to their appropriate GAAP numbers and are posted on Parker's website as well. Slide #3, moving to the agenda. The agenda today consists of 4 parts. First, Don Washkewicz, Chairman, CEO and President, will provide highlights for the quarter. Second, I'll provide a review, including key performance measures for the quarter, and concluding with the updated fiscal year 2014 guidance. The third part of the call will consist of our standard Q&A session. And for the fourth part of the call today, Don will close with some final comments. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don and ask that you refer to Slide #4, titled Highlighted -- Highlights, Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2014.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Thank you, Pam, and welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation this morning. We delivered a strong quarter operationally, that was ahead of expectations, and we are on track with our previously announced restructuring initiatives, and we'll talk a little bit more about restructuring a little bit later in the presentation. Restructuring costs were higher than planned, reflecting final agreements with employee works councils, and I believe we talked a little bit about that in the last meeting. Some highlights for the quarter. Sales increased 3%, adjusting for our previously announced joint venture with GE Aviation. As reported, sales increased 2%. The strongest organic sales growth of 5% was in our Diversified Industrial International business. We're very pleased to see a third consecutive quarter of order growth producing a 7% improvement year-over-year. Our order growth trend is giving us increased confidence in the global economy. Total segment operating margins were approximately 13%, but close to 15%, excluding restructuring expenses, and I think, everyone on the call today knows that, that's our target ROS that we've been shooting for. So excluding the restructuring, we've been closer to 15%. We were particularly pleased to see strong operating margin performance in the Diversified Industrial International businesses, where operating margins were just above 9%, but when you exclude restructuring expenses, that approached 14%, so that's extremely strong for that segment of our business. So we're pretty much hitting on all cylinders right now. Earnings per diluted share were $1.88, adjusted for $0.28 per diluted share in restructuring expenses in the quarter. As reported, earnings per diluted share were $1.60. As I said, I'll give you a few comments on our restructuring. We have an incurred now $0.40 year-to-date. Critical steps were completed in the quarter that allows us to move forward with a range of initiatives. And I just wanted to take this opportunity to give our team -- our global team special thanks in all the countries that were affected by the restructuring for working through these difficult negotiations. They did just a remarkable job and brought us pretty much on target with what we projected we'd be able to do for the year. We're now projecting our total restructuring for the year to be $118 million or $0.55 per diluted share, and that's up from $100 million that we talked about previously. The increase reflects negotiations completed in the third quarter, as well as some additional initiatives that we decided to take some action on this year. So I think, that's all good, and I think, that's all going to accrue for improvements in the years to come -- in the next year to come, I should say. Cash flow continues to be strong. Year-to-date, Parker generated operating cash flow of 8.4% of sales or 9.4% before pension contributions and restructuring. We expect to deliver our 13th consecutive year of cash flow greater than 10% before pension contributions in fiscal '14. And so that would make it a pretty much every year since we launched our WIN strategy that we've been able to deliver cash flow greater than 10%. So we're pretty proud of that accomplishment as well. Our first priority for capital allocation will remain increasing the dividend. Next will be to pursue acquisitions to grow our business. We have continued our share repurchase program, having completed roughly $150 million in share repurchases year-to-date. As we announced last year, we approved our regular quarterly dividend, which will bring our record to 58 consecutive years of increasing our annual dividend, that's not just paying the dividend, but increasing the dividend for 58 consecutive years. And that's still among the top 5 dividend increase records in the S&P 500. So -- and just one other comment on the 10b5-1. We plan to do another $50 million in the fourth quarter, so that would bring us to about $100 million -- or $200 million in share repurchases in the 10b5-1 for the fiscal year, and that's pretty much in line with what we've told you before. We celebrated another milestone last week at the New York Stock Exchange, where we celebrated 50 years as a New York Stock Exchange listed company by ringing the closing bell. That was a very nice event that we had. This past quarter, we also announced a clinical trial agreement for our Indigo Exoskeleton technology with 5 of the top 10 rehabilitation centers in the U.S. We're certainly very excited about this technology and the impact it will have on humanity going forward. The commercial version of Indigo, which enhances many of the unique features of the original design, is going to be introduced in May at a trade show in Germany. And we think this is really tremendous technology, and it's another foundation that we will be building on going forward that adds another layer of technology to the company. Looking ahead to the full year, we're increasing our guidance and have provided adjusted earnings guidance in the range of $6.40 to $6.60 per diluted share for fiscal 2014, and that brings us to about a $6.50 midpoint. Our guidance includes -- by the way, the midpoint was $6.40, so we're bringing it from $6.40 to $6.50. Our guidance includes $0.55 per diluted share in restructuring expenses, but does not include the gain on our previously announced joint venture, which was $1.68 per diluted share and the second quarter asset write-downs of $1.26 per diluted share. So that's what I wanted to do as far as an opener. And now, I'm going to turn it back over to Pam and we'll get into a little bit more detail for you.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thanks, Don. Let's reference Slide #5 now, and I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. On the slide to the left, you can see that adjusted fully diluted earnings per share for the third quarter came in at $1.88 versus $1.69 for the same quarter last year, which is an increase of $0.19 or 11%. As you recall, last quarter, we planned to have $0.20 in restructuring, and we came in at $0.28 for the quarter. And this compares to restructuring last year of $0.01. So moving to Slide #6. This chart on Slide #6 lays out the significant components of the WAC from the adjusted earnings per share of $1.69 last year for the third quarter, to the $1.88 for the third quarter of this year. And as you can see from this slide, the significant items are increased segment operating margin due to North America and International, and lower below the line expenses due mainly to pension expense, partially offset by higher tax rate due to the expiration of the R&D credit. So moving to Slide #7. And on the far right, focusing on the adjusted number here, you can see that sales increased almost 3.5% in the quarter versus the same quarter last year. And as shown in the gold box on the left, currency reduced sales by a little less than 1%. So adjusted to realignment cost in the quarter, segment operating margins, detailed at the bottom of the slide, of 14.7% are ahead of last year of 14.1%. Realignment costs in the quarter were $60 million versus realignment cost last year of $2 million. The higher segment operating income this year of $493 million versus $465 million last year, a 6% improvement, and that's due to higher volume in International, a slight volume increase, product mix and tight cost control in North America. So now moving to Slide #8 and focusing on Diversified Industrial North America, focusing on the segments here. For the quarter, North America reported revenues increased to $1.46 billion from $1.43 billion, an increase of almost 2%, 1.9%. And if you adjust for the unfavorable currency impact, mainly the Canadian currency, organic growth was up almost 2.5%. Adjusted operating income increased to $243 million from $225 million, an 8% increase of the same quarter prior year, and again, mainly the result of higher volume in the quarter, product mix and tight cost control. So moving to Slide #9, addressing Diversified Industrial International. For the quarter, organic revenues increased 5%, and unfavorable currency reduced sales by a little less than 1%. As such, the reported revenue growth for the quarter was 4%. The increased sales in this business were mainly due to higher volume in Europe. Adjusting for realignment cost, operating margin for the quarter increased to $186 million from $159 million for the same quarter 1 year ago. Realignment costs were $59 million in the quarter. So of the total $60 million that we had in restructuring in this quarter, $59 million related to International. And last year, in International, there was $1 million in realignment cost. Margins increased 150 basis points from 12.2% to 13.7%, and again, due to higher volume. So moving to Slide #10 and addressing Aerospace Systems. Revenues adjusted for the previously announced joint venture increased 2%, and the impact of acquisitions and currency on this segment was negligible. Operating margin decreased to $64 million from $80 million versus the same quarter a year ago, and this is really due to the OEM, MRO mix in this particular quarter. So moving to order rates, Slide #12. It details order changes by segment. These numbers represent a trailing average in our reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, and they exclude acquisitions, divestitures and currency. Diversified Industrial uses a 3-month average, while Aerospace Systems uses a 12-month average. I think, you can see from this slide, total orders were positive, 7% for the March quarter just ended, representing 3 quarters of positive numbers. Diversified Industrial North American orders for the quarter just ended increased 6%. Diversified Industrial International orders increased 5% for the quarter. Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America were all positive. Aerospace System orders increased 16% for the quarter. So now, we'll move to the balance sheet. And Parker's balance sheet remains strong. Cash on the balance sheet at yearend was slightly over $2 billion at $2.1 billion, and Commercial Paper outstanding of $1.1 billion. DSI, or days sales and inventory, came in at 66 days, and this is a 6-day improvement sequentially versus the second quarter. Inventories levels at 11% of sales are improved versus last year, where inventories as a percent of sales were 11.3%. Accounts receivable in terms of DSO closed at 50. That's a 1-day increase from last quarter but that's mainly due to the higher sales at the end of the quarter in March. Weighted average days payable outstanding at the end of March was 56, and this is fairly consistent with last quarter. So now, moving to Slide 13, cash flow. Adjusted year-to-date cash flow from operations of $907 million or 9.4% of sales. This compares to $944 million last year or 9.9% of sales, adjusting for -- or adding back the discretionary pension contributions and the cash expended for the restructuring activities. In addition to the cash flow from operations, we had proceeds of more than $200 million from investing activities as well. So after increasing cash on hand by $315 million, the major uses of cash year-to-date are as follows
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And it comes from the line of Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs. [Technical Difficulties]
Operator:
Jeffrey Hammond is on. Sorry about that, I'll get Joe back in.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Can you hear me guys?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Hey, Jeff, a question for you, it's Pam speaking, were you able to hear us talking?
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Yes. I heard the intro remarks, and we just had a little pause before the Q&A. So maybe just to jump in, can you just talk about any kind of weather impact you saw and if March and April were materially better in North America than January, February?
Jon P. Marten:
Okay. Joe, first, Jon here.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
It's Jeff.
Jon P. Marten:
Oh, Jeff. Okay. Now in terms of weather first. It's really hard for us to quantify the impact. Of course, we're aware of the weather here in the upper Midwest and Northeast, but we're a global company, and it's very hard for us to quantify a number for weather. So we're conscious of it, but we purposely decided not to call that out because we don't see that as a -- certainly not an important factor for our quarter that we just finished. Now the other question that you had, Jeff, I'm sorry. Please repeat it.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
No, that's fine. And then, just margins on Aerospace, I think, you tweaked that up in the guidance. They were, in the quarter, a little bit lighter than I was thinking and imply kind of 15%, I think, for the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about the trend there? And how do we start thinking about some of these nonrecurring and R&D cost going away into '15?
Jon P. Marten:
Right. We -- showing right now in our updated guidance that the yearly number for R&D trends below 10% to about 9.6%. In the quarter, in our guidance, it implied 8.7% R&D as a percent of sales. And so the trends in Q4 for Aerospace are up in revenues and flattish in actual expenses R&D, but as a percent of sales, trending down for Q4.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Joe Ritchie.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
So the first question I have, and I did appreciate the color that you gave us on the incremental savings, but I guess, one of the things I wanted to better understand is how do I think about the margin trajectory for '15? I think, historically, you guys have suggested a 15% number for '15, but just based on all the incremental initiatives that you're doing, the restructuring that you're doing, that number just seems way too light to me. So perhaps, you can comment on that?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. Joe, this is Don Washkewicz. Really, right now, let me just describe the process, the forecasting process, we've got about 150 divisions right now that are working on the -- our fiscal '15 plan. And that's a global initiative. So they all roll off in the next month or so to our group presidents, our group levels. And then, those group presentations will be made to the management committee at the company. So really, at this point, it's really premature for us to really give you anything solid. Of course, we're not backing down from what we said before, is that our target is 15%, and we talk a lot about that. So we're not backing down from that. But I can't give you anything more specific. And so I see what the groups are coming in and what then we'll do is we'll aggregate all that and come up with -- we'll present that to the board. Once the board signs off on it, then we'll present it to you at the next meeting and give you a real good -- not only give you the numbers but we'll give you a lot of insight as to how we arrive at the numbers. But we're right in middle of that process. So it'd be kind of premature for me to predict anything at this point. Other than the fact that we're not backing down from what we told you earlier.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Don, that's helpful. I guess, one -- my follow-up question is on capital allocation. You've talked about the propensity to get out in the market and acquire assets that are available. Perhaps, you can just provide a little bit of color on what you're seeing in the marketplace today? And if things don't materialize, do you have higher inclination to perhaps more aggressively buy back shares, just given how strong your balance sheet is?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. Well, as I said, I'm just going to repeat this a little bit, but I've kind of stated this in the past, the first priority, and I've mentioned it in my opening comments, is the dividend, and that's been our first priority, and will continue to be our first. Just to give you a little color on that, we've increased now 58 years in a row, actually increased the dividend. In the last 5 years, it's 92%, roughly, increase in the dividend. What we're trying to get to, this is a repeat as well, we're trying to get to 30% payout. Last year, we finished at 27%, we're at about 28% now, and we're going to gradually move it up and get to the 30% payout level. So that's the dividend. The second thing is CapEx. I'll only comment on CapEx because that's a critical part of our allocation as well, is that we've doubled the size of the company with a CapEx running around 2% to 2.5%, which I think is unheard of in this day and age. And it's really a tribute to the Lean initiatives and the WIN strategy that we're able to do that. So we're in pretty good shape on CapEx. You mentioned acquisitions, that's our next priority would be acquisitions, we have a number of them that we're looking at. We've got some in the pipeline, we've got some expressions of interest out there. I can't predict anything, and I won't predict that if we get them to the finish line or not because you never know until you actually signed the paperwork. So -- but we're still hopeful that we're going to be able to do something in the way of acquisitions. And if we don't, to your second question, yes, we will be looking at, this year, this calendar year, we will be looking at potential share repurchases. We've realized that there's -- we have plenty of capacity. Our first priority is to grow the company and use that capacity to grow the company but if that's not in the near-term cards, we'll utilize capacity to do some share repurchases. So we're not backing down from that. As far as pensions are concerned, I mentioned earlier, I think, we did $75 million this year, we don't anticipate we'll have to do anything else there. So that kind of gives you the total look at what we're looking at as far as capital allocation.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Just clarification on Aerospace really quickly. Did I hear it correct that you expect to exit fiscal '14 with 8.7% R&D as a percentage of sales?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. Discretely for the quarter, Mig, this is Jon. For the year, will be at about 9.6%.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay. Great. And are you still sort of aiming for 8% or the very low-8s, and is that something that's achievable, maybe over, say, the next 12 months?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, we don't want to get into guidance too much for FY '15, Mig, but that has been our stated goal, to get it down into the low-8s. We intend to do that. And as Don described, we'll be really pulling it all together here in Q4, and we'll give you a much fuller report, but there's been no change in our intentions there.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Then my last question real quick is on OE versus distributor demand in the industrial segment, if you could provide any color there?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. Let me just talk a little bit about -- maybe I'll talk about several aspects of what's happening out in the marketplace. A little bit of comment on the PMI index, first of all, which kind of gives you a general look in the different regions around the world just from a high level. Actually, we saw this month, this period, a little bit of a disconnect, not a major disconnect, a little disconnect from our order trends that PMI is actually -- all the PMIs for all the regions actually dropped slightly. Overall, probably not all of that significant, overall globally dropped about 0.6%. But we saw a negative movement on every region with the exception of the Eurozone, which was actually slightly positive. So -- but the good news, having said that, it's not all bad, I mean, these movements happen, and sometimes, we lead, sometimes, we lag. But the good news is that everybody is above 50. Every region is above 50, Germany, Eurozone, U.S., global and so forth, with the exception of China, which is at about 48 right now. So that's the PMI look. When you look at some of the markets, actually, the list is very long on positive markets, okay, for us right now, and fairly short on weaker markets and flat markets. Let me just kind of run down quickly for you. Of course, we participate in a lot of OEM markets, as well as the distribution segment of our business. So some of the strongest markets for us right now -- or segments, I should say, would be distribution, which should be very strong, I'll talk a little bit about the order trends there in distribution in a few minutes. Oil & gas is very strong for us. Cars and light trucks are very strong. Some of the other positive markets, the markets are trending in a positive way are machine tools, power gen, general industrial markets, off-highway construction, heavy-duty trucks, farm and ag, industrial machinery, industrial trucks, I should say, which is the material handling type of lift trucks, and forestry. Also on the process side, industrial refrigeration and commercial refrigeration is strong. And on the aerospace side, it would be the aerospace commercial aftermarket and the aerospace commercial OEM. So you can see that unlike prior quarters, we really are looking at a much better overall picture here in just about all of the market segments. Weaker segments then, let me just run down a couple of weaker ones for you. Process industries would be weaker, telecom and life sciences would be a couple of weaker segments. And of course, ongoing weakness in the aerospace, defense, MRO and OEM part of the business. And then, flat -- pretty flat would be semiconductor, mining and marine. So as you can see, much more positive in the -- this quarter than what we've seen in the past pretty much across the board. When we look at regions then, on a 3/12 and a 12/12 basis, of course, you've seen the 3/12 number, so you know what's happening there, those are the numbers that we post every quarter, you don't really see the 12/12 necessarily. I'd just kind of give you a little color on what's happening here. First of all, all regions are tracking above 100 on the 12/12. This is the last 12 months orders, divided by the prior 12 months orders. Everything is above 100, which is very good. That's a very good sign. And all regions are tracking above 100 on the 3/12, with the exception of Latin America. Latin America in our International segment was actually down below 100 slightly, and that's pulling -- that's going to pull their 12/12 down a little bit from where it stands right now. But these are very good signs, I think, from an order trend standpoint. Positive signs for us going through the -- setting us up for a good close for the fiscal year. And just a little bit about the order trends in those -- some of those specific segments that I mentioned before. Distribution is extremely strong right now, and remember, that's half of our industrial business, so this is a very major number for us. So it's -- the 3/12 there is running about 109, and the 12/12 is north of 100 as well. And actually, it's less than the 3/12, so it's going to be pulling up the 12/12 over time. So distribution, very strong. We're very happy about that. Growing is the heavy-duty truck business. The 3/12 there is north of 100, and as well as the 12/12, and it's -- the 3/12 is greater than the 12/12, so it's pulling the 12/12 up over time, so that's good. A bad market for us right now but it's improving, is construction. 3/12 is less than 100, and the 12/12 is even worse as far as less than 100. So actually, the 3/12 is improving and pulling the 12/12 up over time. So even though that's a segment that's been beat up pretty bad over the last year, there's some light at the end of the tunnel there, it looks like, over time. Softening is this -- what we consider softening would be semiconductor, and that's tracking less than 100 right now in the 3/12, but the 12/12 is still well over 100. So over time, we'll just have to watch and see how that materializes going forward. Growing segment for us would be ag, which is running both above 100 on the 3/12 and the 12/12, and it has been running like this for quite a while for us. So we like what's happening in ag. Bad, one of the -- probably the worse segments, I should say, and actually getting worst is some of the process markets. Actually, the 3/12 is running well under 100, closer to like 75%. And that's dragging the 12/12 down along with it. So process market is being one of the worst segments. Another very strong segment for us would be aerospace. 3/12's running well over 120, or right around 125, and the 12/12 is running around 120, 121. So that segment is extremely strong. So I know that's a lot to absorb but that's how we see right now and that kind of gives you a good look at our order trends with the general summation of all that is that just about every place, things are looking a little better and a little bit more positive, with the exception maybe of Latin America and maybe a couple of these segments that I mentioned. But there are quite a few strong segments in here, too.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Alex Blanton from Clear Harbor Asset Management.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
I wanted to go back to the fourth quarter. I was off a little bit so this might've been asked. But if we look at what's implied in the fourth quarter, you're seeing -- without restructuring, excluding that $1.77 versus $1.88 in the third quarter, and then, if we include the restructuring, the gap is narrower, it's just about flat, $1.62 versus $1.60. Typically, you have a stronger fourth quarter than third. So what is the reason for this implied decline?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Alex, I just want to make sure that we're all clear about the numbers, for the fourth quarter, at the midpoint, we have $2.04 projected, okay? It's higher than what we projected last quarter, but the restructuring that we're projecting is pretty much the same. We said $0.14 last quarter, and now we're saying $0.15 in the fourth quarter. So I just want to make sure that we have the numbers. We -- really, this guidance, when you look at the guidance that we're giving you today, compared to the guidance that we gave you last quarter, really, the only thing that is different is we built in the third quarter beat because we beat our third quarter versus what we said, and we adjusted the international numbers because of the order rates, the consistency in the order rates, and we felt that we got through a lot of the noise that was happening in Europe as a result of the restructuring, so we took the international numbers up. But that's the only difference when you look at previous guidance versus the guidance today.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Okay. Well, I was using the full year of $7.05, that's $6.50 plus $0.55 of restructuring, right?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Well, if you take the $6.50, we had $0.47 in restructuring last year, now we have $0.55, okay? The difference is the restructuring that you saw in the third quarter, which is $0.08 higher.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Well, I know that, but if you take the full year, it's $7.05 without the restructuring, correct?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Well, it's $6.50, plus the restructuring that's included is $0.55.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
$7.05. And then, I looked in the -- it's $5.28 without the restructuring for 9 months.
Pamela J. Huggins:
The $6.50 has the restructuring in it. And you're right, $0.55 plus the $6.50 gives you your $7.05.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Nathan Jones from Stifel.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Don, if I could just push you a bit more on the balance sheet, the balance sheet is obviously suboptimal at the moment and you're at as low a leverage ratio as far back as my model goes for Parker. You've talked about wanting to do acquisitions, you would need to do some fairly large acquisitions to get the balance sheet back into a more optimal capital structure. Is it safe to assume that you are working on some larger deals and some deals that would be record size for Parker at this point?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, we're looking at everything that comes across. I mean, all different sizes. There's no specific size that we're targeting on. So we're looking at a lot of different things. And if whatever we end up getting across the finish line, if we have excess capital and we think it's prudent to do some share repurchase, we'll do some share repurchase with whatever we've got left and bring everything back into kind of the normal range what you typically have seen us do in the past. I won't read anything more than that into this. I think, like I said, we've got some expressions of interest out there. We've got things that have fallen out of the pipeline, we've got other things that are coming into the pipeline. And until we can get something across the finish line, I just can't really give you much more to go on there. I mean -- but, with the exception that -- we hear what you're saying. And Nathan, you're consistent, you've been saying this for a long time now. So you're very consistent, and we appreciate that. And -- but that's kind of what I would say is we would certainly try to do the acquisitions and the balance, if we have a balance left after that, we would do some share repurchase. And that would have to be approved by our board, too. So I can't even give you a hard number on that but we would -- I think, the board would be in agreement with that.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Do you have a targeted timeframe for getting that capital structure back more in line with the historical level that Parker's had?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. I think, what we would say is that we're looking at the calendar year here, we're a few months, or 3 or 4 months into the calendar year now, we're seeing this calendar year, I think, would be the relative -- relevant timeframe that we'd be looking at.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay. My follow-up question is on inventories, destocking versus restocking. Can you talk about any pockets where you're continuing to see inventory destocking, and with orders starting to firm, if you're starting to see anywhere where there's any inventory restocking?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
I don't think that -- with the exception of maybe a couple of segments that are not tracking very strong like right now, which would be not very significant, and overall, I don't see a whole lot of destocking going on right now, I see more of cautious stocking relative to, and maybe in line with normal growth activities right now, pretty much across the board in all those segments I mentioned. I don't see big movements one way or another. No great destocking, nor any great emphasis on restocking above the current demand levels.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.
Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Just a clarification and a question, Don, not to delay for the balance sheet question. But now you're saying you're really not going to have an answer on the share repurchase or anything until calendar year 2014, whereas before, I thought, we would hear something by the end of your fiscal year. Are you pushing things out or was I incorrect? And then, my second question is just your confidence level in the ability to achieve 15% margin next year in international industrial, it sounds like, now, the restructuring is ahead of plan. I think the concern was it would be behind. And given the size that Europe is getting better, how should we think about incrementals in that business coming out as we approach next year?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, let me just say that I don't know that I've been specific. I think, we've been talking about the year. And so I'm saying calendar year '14, it could happen in fiscal year '14, certainly. We might take some action, but we really don't have another board meeting until after the end of the fiscal year. So chances are we probably wouldn't do a major share repurchase before then. So it's really more like calendar '14. I don't know that I was specific one way or the other. I think, we just said the year within a year in the past. And then, the question on the 15%, I'm going to let Jon handle that. I think, he has some information for you.
Jon P. Marten:
I think, Jamie, the trends in international for us in our restructuring for FY '15 certainly indicate to us that we can get there, Pam talked about the restructuring without the restructuring in the slide that she had for the quarter at gain well north of 14. And given that we're boosting up our savings projected for next year with the additional restructuring that we spoke about this morning, we feel good that we're on track to do 15% in '15. So we're optimistic. We don't want to get too far out ahead of ourselves because we want to really get through to make sure that the numbers are footing here in the quarter, and that we really understand precisely the final impact of all the different restructuring initiatives. One of the things that I find myself doing sometimes is minimizing the difficulty that we've gone through in the past 3 quarters getting this restructuring done. It is awfully complex, a very tough work. Our employees in Europe have worked very, very hard to get us to the point that we're at right now. And certainly, all of our employees around the world that have been working on this restructuring program have just done yeoman's work. And so I don't want to really project anything other than what we talked about this morning, which is an additional incremental $60 million in savings for industrial international for FY '15.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Don, can you just give us some color, I'm struggling with your comments on the process industry. I think, the process industry produce natural gas, and will be benefiting and maybe thriving in this environment. Could you give me some more color on what exactly you're seeing in process industries and what process industries are we talking about?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. I think, for the most part, what I would be referring to, it would be chemical process probably would be dominant within what I've been referring to here.
Jon P. Marten:
So yes, you're right, there's some petroleum refineries and things like that probably would still be doing okay. Chemical process, I think, is more what I'm referring to here. And semiconductor, I mentioned earlier, as a separate item.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
And the semiconductor is pretty consistent, but the process just being inconsistent. And then...
Jon P. Marten:
It depends on who lumps what into that bucket. I think, it's going to maybe make a difference for you.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Yes. Got you. And then, on the acquisitions front, it struck me last night, I saw that Stanadyne sold its filtration business to CLARCOR, that was about $100 million business. I might've thought that, that would've been exactly in Parker-Hannifin's sweet spot, filtration, maybe a little vehicle-related, but is that still the kind of business that Parker might be looking at? And what are you seeing on the competitive front as their own pricing, when deals are coming to fruition?
Jon P. Marten:
Ann, the filtration business for us is a great business for us. And that business that you were talking about didn't fit into that category. We are in the process of looking at all filtration companies. Please keep in mind that we are looking at every deal possible. And when we look at every deal possible, we are focusing in on synergies that we can get and what we can deliver to our shareholders at the end of the day. And that's how we do our evaluations. And without commenting on that specific deal, we feel very good about our process. And as Don talked about, we've got several businesses in our pipeline in general. And we will always be sure to emphasize the filtration business. Don, you want to add something to that?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. And I think, Ann, you had asked about the pricing as what's happening on pricing. Generally, I think, what we're saying, and it's been typical here of late, is that people are looking in the rearview mirror and saying, "What kind of a multiples businesses have gone for prior to 2009, prior to the big recession?" And I think, that's still in their memory banks. And I think, they still feel that even going into a much slower growth period that we're looking at now that they still think that the properties command much higher multiples than what we would normally think that we could justify based on a discounted cash flow. So I think, that's kind of where we're at now with probably a lot of other companies. We're looking at a future with growth rates that are not going to be bad, but they're not going to be as great as they were back prior to the big recession, at least not in the near-term. And so, the valuations we think are a little bit more pricey than they have been in the past. And I think, people need to forget a little bit about -- or maybe need not forget, but need to make an apples-to-apples comparison of what's going on in the past and what's going on now because we know that only -- there's only 2 lines on this kind of cash flow that make a difference, it's the sales growth line and operating margin. And with the sales growth being down a little bit from what it was in the past, I think, the multiple should come down with that.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Yes. I guess, if I were the seller, Don, I would argue that maybe we don't have the big peaks and troughs we've had historically either. And so, your earnings volatility is lower, therefore, you need to pay for that.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. But I would be one -- yes, I would say the same thing, Ann.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
If you were selling your business.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Right.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Just a question on North American operating margin. I know that last quarter, there was a little bit of debate, and I think, some fine point tuning on guidance. Having a hard time calling what perhaps peak margins look like there and maybe some debate of whether or not you were at peak, given that they were so strong and mixed with the tailwind. Seems like with the performance here and the guide that, that's a little bit less of an issue. Is that a comfort with the sustainability of the current mix and profitability? Is that just better visibility on end markets? Any more color you'd like to add?
Jon P. Marten:
I think, we just have a little bit better visibility on where we are with the end markets. Coming out of Q2 is always a tough time for us because we're always sequentially moving up from Q2 into Q3, and trying to make a judgment about those margins at that time, Josh, was a little bit more difficult than it is for us now. And you can tell by our implied margins for Q4, we are even more bullish than we were last quarter.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Excellent. And then, Jon, just a question on pension, with rates where they are today, any sense of what that year-over-year delta could look like in '15 if we freeze the rate environment here?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. I think that a couple of things to keep in mind. Number one, we will need to reevaluate our discount rate, and that's one part of it. There will be a potential change in the mortality table, that will be another part of it. There'll be another change in the rate of return on our assets, that will be another part of it. So just as Don described how we're doing things at the division operating level and rolling everything up, we'll be looking at all of those factors and getting the latest data points. It's too soon to be bullish or pessimistic on the pensions for FY '15 at this point. Pam, do you want to add anything to that?
Pamela J. Huggins:
No, I think, that you said it very well. We will be looking at it. But we do have all 3 of those factors to consider this year. And whereas in the past, we have the discount rate, the long-term of return and we also have the mortality table that will be taken into consideration, which will be somewhat as an offset to, obviously, any improvement in the discount rates. So we'll keep you posted.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Got you. And if I can just sneak in one last clarification on the balance sheet and an update there. Am I understanding it right, the plan always, the entire time, was somewhere between August and call it December that you guys were going to update us on plans, and that's still the case? I think, last quarter, you said fiscal yearend, but it was really more no sooner than fiscal yearend?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
You're talking about the capital allocation?
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Yes, capital allocation. That's right.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. I think, right now, we're saying calendar year. And yes, we'll update you in August, for sure.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Just one clarification first question because that was confusing me. You gave us $2.04 guidance for the midpoint for 2000 -- for the fourth quarter, and that includes the $0.15, so that's where your $2.19 operating quarter. Is that correct?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thank you, Eli, and I appreciate you pointing that out. And just to add onto that a little bit, it may help Alex [ph]. Last year, for the fourth quarter, we gave $1.98, which included $0.14 of restructuring. So it's $2.19 now versus $2.12 then.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
So it's strong. And what's driving this fourth quarter is the improvement in profitability almost across all the businesses quarter-to-quarter, plus a little bit of volume, is that correct?
Pamela J. Huggins:
I think, that's a very good summarization.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Okay. And can we talk a bit about pricing across the industries at this point? Are we seeing any issue? Outside, I know Latin America has pricing problem. When you have a volume problem, you're going to have pricing problem. But is pricing pretty stable around or is there any movement in prices at all?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, Eli, I think, that we're managing that pretty good. The pricing, we do raise -- I assume you're talking about how we're pricing relative to the raw material inputs?
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
Well, just the cost versus the industry and versus...
Donald E. Washkewicz:
I think, what we're doing, we're managing this pretty well. What we have, and it's a global index, we have what we call the Purchase Price Index, and the goal there is to be less than one, that's basically how we aggregate all the purchases we have from prior periods to current period. Time's divine. We aggregate all that. And we're tracking less than one. So I think, on a purchase price basis, we're doing a very good job of recovering the cost and as well as the margin. And on a sell price, we have also an index, which we call a Soft Price Index that works pretty much the same way. We track that around the world globally for all of our operations, all of our sales. And we want that to be tracking greater than one. So if we accomplish both of those things, which we are doing, then we're going to be recovering our cost and the margins. We increased the aftermarket twice a year. Well, it could be once or twice a year, but we have 2 different times, depending on what the need is, either in January or July. So that's when we address the aftermarket, any changes there. And the OEMs are addressed based on the anniversary of the contract that we would sign with OEMs. So that varies throughout the year. To talk about some of the input costs, actually, the input costs have been going up somewhat. But like I said, we were recovering them as they have been going up. Just some of the energy ones would be oil and natural gas. Oil is up slightly over last July when we started the fiscal. Natural gas is up about 30% from last July, so that's up quite a bit. And then, some of the raw material inputs being castings, that's up around 8%. Steel, just looking at a couple of other ones, steel and aluminum, steel is up about 5%, aluminum up 10%, copper up 3%, and nickel up 5%. So some of the more exotic metals are up about 5%. So there is some pressure coming from raw materials. But like I said, we've been managing that pretty well, and so far, we're staying ahead of the curve. I hope that's helpful. Pam has one thing to add there.
Pamela J. Huggins:
No. I think, I'm just going to say, at this time, we'll take one more question, and then, we'll move to Don's closing comments. Thank you.
Operator:
The next question we have comes from the line of Jamie Sullivan from RBC Capital Markets.
Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Just a question on the savings side of the restructuring program. Can you give some color, I know you mentioned $30 million for the year. What were the savings that you achieved in the third quarter and year-to-date, so far?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, Jamie, Jon here. The savings in Q3 would be -- bear with me for 1 minute, $8 million. So that would be $8 million of the $30 million. And for the year, we would be at $17 million year-to-date of the $30 million.
Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
Okay. Great. And then, on the $10 million in additional savings that you'll get next year, was there a particular area that you uncovered through the process? Or was it the initial plan had some additional cost but also an additional savings with it, just maybe some additional details on where the $10 million in additional savings was coming from?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. It's more the latter than the former. This is because we've moved the restructuring number from $100 million to $118 million as we went through all the additional projects. We found that, in some cases, we're doing a little bit better in terms of savings that we had before. And in some cases, we've had to increase the savings. And in other cases, and again, I -- sometimes, we make it sound very simple, these are many, many, many different projects all throughout the world, and so they go both ways. But when you aggregate them all together, we get to that additional $10 million. So it's -- but it's really mostly related to the delta between $100 million that we originally talked about at the beginning of this fiscal year, and the $118 million that we're talking about today.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thank you. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don who has a few comments.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Thanks, Pam. So just a couple of closing comments. First of all, I want to thank again everyone on the call for joining us this morning. With our restructuring proceeding as planned, I think, you can see, with the strong operating execution and positive order trends, we expect to close out the year on a positive note, and we'll be well-positioned heading into fiscal year 2015. So we're very pleased with where we are today. A lot of hard work and effort went into the restructuring activities, which was referred to earlier in the year as a self-help program, and it is a self-help program. And I think, we've executed extremely well along those lines. Very difficult. But the team has really performed very well. I'd like to take the opportunity to thank our employees, all the employees, for their continued commitment and the success that we've had. Our global team continues to do a great job executing the WIN strategy and delivering positive results. So at this time, we'll close out, and I'd just like to wish everyone a great day. And then, if there are any other questions, Pam will be available for those throughout the balance of the day. Just give her a call.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thank you very much. We know you have a lot of calls today, it's very active at this time, especially this quarter, at the end of the month. So thank you very much for your participation. Bye-bye.
Operator:
Thank you. That concludes your conference call for today. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.
Executives:
Pamela J. Huggins - Vice President and Treasurer Donald E. Washkewicz - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jon P. Marten - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance & Administration
Analysts:
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Quarter 2 of the Fiscal Year 2014 Parker Hannifin Earnings Conference Call. My name is Matthew, and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded for replay purposes. And now I would like to turn the call over to Pamela Huggins, Vice President and Treasurer. Please proceed, ma'am.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, everyone, this is Pam speaking. I'd like to welcome you to Parker Hannifin's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today is the Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, Don Washkewicz; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. For those of you who wish to do so, you can follow today's presentation with the PowerPoint slides that have been presented on Parker's website at www.phstock.com. And for those of you not online, the slides will remain posted on the company's Investor information website, at that same site, 1 year after today's call. At this time, I'll reference Slide #2 in the slide deck, if you have it before you. And it's the Safe Harbor disclosure statement, addressing forward-looking statements. Please take note of this statement in its entirety if you haven't already done so. Moving to Slide #3. This slide, as required, indicates that in cases where non-GAAP numbers have been used, they've been reconciled to the appropriate GAAP numbers and are posted on Parker's website, again at phstock.com. Slide #4 is the agenda for today, it consists of 4 parts. First, Don Washkewicz, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. He'll provide highlights for the quarter. Second, I'll provide a review, including key performance measures for the quarter, concluding with the updated 2014 guidance. The third part of the call will consist of a standard Q&A session. And the fourth part of the call today, Don will close with some final comments. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don, and ask that you refer to Slide #5, titled Highlights Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2014.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Thanks, Pam. And welcome to everyone on the call. We appreciate your participation today. I'll make a few comments and then Pam is going to return for a little bit more detailed review of the quarter. To start off, I am certainly very pleased that we continue to execute well through the first half of our fiscal year and delivered another strong quarter operationally that was ahead of expectations. Just some highlights for the quarter. We exceeded our guidance of $1.14 for the quarter by $0.10. And just to remind everybody that our second quarter is the worst quarter in our fiscal year. That's just not this year, that's every year. So the holidays, the vacation days, the plant shutdowns and all the related things make that quarter a very, very challenging quarter and to be able to exceed our number, which we thought was bullish at the time by $0.10, we were ecstatic about that. So very pleased with that. Even though the Street was considerably higher than our guidance, we exceeded the First Call estimates by -- as well by $0.01. Now I was reading some of the early reports this morning. It looks like we either -- we're ahead by $0.01 or down by $0.03. So it depends, I think, on what service you're looking at, but we traditionally look at the First Call. They seem to have a pretty comprehensive report and pretty consistent. So -- anyway, pretty good numbers all in all, given that it was the weakest quarter traditionally in our fiscal year. Sales for the quarter were up 1.3%. The organic growth was 3.1%, which excludes the effect of the acquisitions, currency and previously announced joint venture agreement with GE Aviation, so nice growth. We'd love to see more, but it's heading at least in a positive direction at 3% organic. We're pleased to see a second consecutive quarter of positive order growth, producing a 5% improvement year-over-year. And this is also the fourth consecutive month of positive order growth across all of our segments. These trends are consistent with increasingly favorable macroeconomic indicators. Total segment operating margins improved slightly year-over-year, reaching 12.2%. And I want you to keep in mind that our second quarter again is typically our lowest, also the 12.2% includes higher restructuring expenses. Diversified Industrial North American operation -- operating margins were in excess of 15% at 15.1%. Aerospace System margins were impacted by mix, as we recorded more OEM versus MRO sales, stemming from the large number of major platform wins we have secured in the past several years. And we've been, obviously, talking about those for some time. Adjusted earnings per diluted share were $1.24, and that's adjusted for the effect of 2 nonrecurring items, the asset write-downs in the quarter and a gain in conjunction with the joint venture with GE Aviation. As reported, earnings per diluted share were $1.66, including these nonrecurring items. So $1.66 with and $1.24 without. Just a comment on the asset write-downs. As part of our restructuring, we have identified assets that will fail to meet our future performance goals. These asset write-downs have not been completely communicated, so we will not be discussing them further at this time. The write-downs are in addition to the previously announced restructuring charges of $0.47 for the year, and we'll give you a little bit more detail on that $0.40 and how it's progressing a little further on. These asset write-downs will positively impact our performance starting in fiscal year 2015. Cash flow, of course, is extremely important, continues to be strong. And year-to-date, we generated operating cash flow of 8.5% of sales or 9.7%, just under 10%, before pension contributions. We still expect to deliver our 13th consecutive year of cash flow greater than 10% before pension contributions for the balance of this fiscal year. So we're looking forward to a real strong cash flow year again on top of that stream of cash flow year as referenced. Just a few comments about our restructuring. Restructuring this quarter was $0.07 per diluted share, bringing us to $0.13 year-to-date. We're still projecting restructuring for the year to be the $100 million that we talked about earlier at the beginning of the year or $0.47 per diluted share as we stated originally. Pam will review how this impacts each quarter as we get into a little bit more detail. We were also pleased, on a separate topic, that during the quarter, our board was ranked in the top 10 for overall governance capacity in an independent study of America's largest companies conducted by James Drury Partners. So we're pretty excited about that. And that is the third year in a row that we achieved that recognition, so real nice recognition for our Board of Directors. Looking ahead to the full year, we're maintaining our guidance at the midpoint and have provided adjusted earnings guidance in the range of $6.20 to $6.60, so we're just tightening the range a little bit per diluted share for fiscal 2014. This is pretty consistent with what we've done in prior years. As we move through the year, every quarter, we make a slight compression where it's appropriate or make the adjustment as needed, and we'll continue to do that throughout the balance of this fiscal year. This guidance does include the estimated $0.47 per diluted share in restructuring expenses, but does not include the gain on the GE Aviation joint venture of $1.68 per diluted share and the second quarter asset write-downs of $1.26 per diluted share. So that's a quick overview of the quarter, now I'm going to turn it back over to Pam and she'll give you a little bit more detail on a few of these items.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Okay. Thanks, Don. As Don said, I'm going to give you a little more detail, I apologize for any duplication, but we think it's important to walk through the slides. So starting with Slide #6, and I'll begin by addressing our earnings per share for the quarter. Fully diluted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $1.66 and this compares to $1.19 for the same quarter last year, which is an increase of 39%. This 39%, however, includes the previously announced joint venture gain of $413 million or earnings per share of $1.68 recorded in the second quarter. And the second quarter asset write-downs of $192 million or $1.28 of earnings per share. If you exclude these 2 nonrecurring items, diluted earnings per share is $1.24, and this compares to $1.19 last year or an increase of 4%. The increase, however, is 8% if you exclude the restructuring in addition to the nonrecurring items. As Don mentioned, restructuring was $0.07 in the second quarter of this year, and restructuring was only $0.02 in the second quarter of last year. So moving to the next slide, #7, this slide lays out the significant components of the walk, from the $1.19 last year to the $1.66 reported for the second quarter of this year. You can see that the previously announced JV gain of $1.68 is partially offset by the asset write-down of $1.26. And these were both recorded in this quarter. And also on this slide, you can see that there's an additional $0.05 coming from better operating performance in North America and International. Moving to Slide #8, if you focus on the far right, you can see -- this is an adjusted number, sales increased 3% for the quarter versus the same quarter last year. And as shown in the gold box on the left, currency reduced sales by 1% in the quarter. Looking at segment operating margins, which are detailed at the bottom of the slide, the quarter was 12.2%, slightly ahead of last year. But on a comparable basis, this would even be higher because, again, there was more restructuring in this quarter versus last year. So moving to Slide #9, and here, I'm going to focus on segments, commencing with Industrial North America. For the quarter, North American revenues of $1.33 billion, slightly increased almost 1% over last year. Additional revenue from acquisitions, it was relatively minor at less than 1%, offset by unfavorable currency. Operating income in North America increased to $201 million from $190 million, that's a 6% increase over the prior year and mainly, the result of further acquisition integration and tight cost control. So moving to segments addressing the International side of things. For the quarter, organic revenues increased 6% and currency was reduced by a little more than 1%. The increase in sales was mainly due to Europe. Operating margin increased to $134 million from $125 million. That's a 7% increase, and this is even with higher restructuring cost in this quarter versus last year. Also due -- it was mainly due to the increased volume in Europe and really good tight cost control in Asia. So moving to Slide #11 and focusing on Aerospace. Revenues on an adjusted basis for the joint venture increased 3%, and in this segment, there really weren't any acquisitions and the impact of currency was negligible. Operating margin decreased to $45 million from $52 million versus the same quarter a year ago, and as Don mentioned, that's due to higher OEM, MRO mix in the quarter. Moving to order rates. These numbers, as you know, represent a trailing 3-month average and they're reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year and they exclude acquisitions and currency. And -- except for aerospace. Aerospace is reported using a 12-month rolling average. But as you can see from this slide, orders were positive 5% for the December quarter just ended, representing 2 quarters of positive numbers. North American orders for the quarter increased 3%, Industrial International orders increased 6% for the quarter and Aerospace orders increased 7%, again on a 12-month rolling basis. So moving to the balance sheet, Parker's balance sheet remains strong. Cash on the balance sheet at year-end was a little over $2 billion, offset by outstanding Commercial Paper of $1.2 billion. DSI or days sales in inventory came in at 72 days for the quarter versus 75 for the same quarter last year. The inventory decrease in the quarter versus last year, around $67 million, and this includes additional inventory from previous acquisitions. Inventory levels at 11.1% of sales are slightly better than last year at 11.3%. Accounts receivable in terms of DSO closed at 49, a 1-day improvement from last quarter. And weighted average days payable outstanding at the end of December was 56, a 2-day improvement from last quarter. So moving to cash flow, from operations year-to-date, $540 million or 8.5% of sales versus 5.5% of sales last year. However, if you exclude the discretionary pension contribution in the first quarter, which is the $615 million that you see on the slide there, cash flow from operations is 9.7%. This compares to 9.1% last year. So after increasing cash-on-hand in the quarter -- or for the year to date, $359 million. The major uses of cash are $235 million year-to-date return to shareholders via share repurchase of $100 million and dividend payments of $135 million. And then $112 million or 1.8% of sales utilized in connection with capital expenditures. So now moving to Slide #15 and addressing guidance. You'll notice that this quarter, the guidance has been provided using a different format. The assumptions have been provided for guidance using the midpoint only. In the past, we gave you a range. So you'll see that for sales and margins, we gave you the numbers at the midpoint. The guidance for revenues and operating margins by segment, they've been provided at the top of that page. They are the first 2 sections. And addressing sales, sales are expected to increase approximately 1.5% at the midpoint for the year. But on an adjusted basis, that's 3%. This 3% is comprised of a little more than 2% organically and not quite 1% from acquisition hangover. The adjusted number includes an adjustment for the sales with respect to the GE JV that we've discussed and the sale of the automotive air-conditioning business last year that's been discussed on previous calls. Segment operating margins are forecasted at 13.7% at the midpoint, fairly consistent with last quarter. And also included on this slide is the projection for corporate admin and other. Excluding the nonrecurring items, it's approximately $461 million for the year. The full year tax rate is now at 34.4%, and I'm sure you realize that this is higher than last quarter. That's due to the asset write-downs that we took in the second quarter. We've used a 29% tax rate in the third and fourth quarter, consistent with last quarter as well. The number of outstanding shares used in the guidance is 151.7 million. So for the full year, the adjusted earnings per share guidance is $6.20 to $6.60. So the guidance has been updated from last quarter to exclude the JV gain as it's a nonrecurring item. So just a couple of salient points with respect to the guidance. Sales first half, second half are divided 48%, 52%. Segment operating income first half, second half is divided 47%, 53%. Earnings per share, the first half, second half, 45%, 55%, and this excludes the nonrecurring items. And then the third quarter earnings per share at the midpoint is projected to be 40% -- 44% of the second half. Restructuring costs are still projected to be approximately $100 million, in line with what we conveyed last quarter, the growth earnings per share impact is $0.47. The impact to the first half is $0.13 and the second half is projected to be approximately $0.34. However, $0.20 will occur in the third quarter. So please remember that this forecast excludes any further acquisitions or divestitures that may be made in 2014. And for published estimates, we ask that you please exclude the joint venture gain and the asset write-down. So at this time, I think we'll commence with the standard Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] So at this time, we'll -- go ahead, Matthew. Thank you.
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Can you just give a little more color on the aero margins, which continue to disappoint. And then it looks like if you back into the guide, a big snap back there. What gives you the confidence the margins snap back there?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, Jeff, this is Jon. And we are continuing with the pattern that we saw last year, with the development programs and supporting them in Q2. As Don mentioned in his comments, we saw a mix issue that was more pronounced that we see in prior periods with the commercial aftermarket revenues just not meeting up with the expectations that we were looking for here for Q2. We know -- it's a long cycle business. We know what to expect here in the second half. We have a very detailed review that we go through each quarter. And we feel good about the OEM revenues and our margins, and we feel very good about the MRO business snapping back here in the second quarter. That's what's going to help drive the margins. And then our continued progress on the development programs is, although it's not apparent because we don't break it out by element, our continued progress on the development programs is better this year than last year. And we are expecting it to be better next year than this year. Long-cycle business, it's hard to change big trends in 1 quarter, but I appreciate your question and wanted to make sure that I gave you a complete answer there.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
But are you seeing a big acceleration in the aftermarket that would lead to better mix?
Jon P. Marten:
Right now, our projections is that the aftermarket is going to accelerate in the second half. Q2 is always very tough to make a projection off of because historically, over time, always in Q2, the commercial aftermarket is lower than it is in any other part of the fiscal year, and that impacted us this quarter. We actually did a little bit better than our indicative guidance in Q2, although admittedly, at very low levels. So we have a very detailed understanding of where the aftermarket is, where the customers are and what the demand should be. And that's how we are projecting our second half, Jeff.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan of JPMorgan.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Maybe, Don, since we're going to limit the questions to 1, and maybe a tiny follow-up. Maybe you could give us your normal regional color and some market color on your 3-month and 12-month moving averages?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Okay. Ann, I'll be happy to do that. Well, just keep in mind as I go through some of this that, again, we keep repeating this, but it's worth repeating that December is normally the quarter, second quarter, I should say, not just December. December is our worst month, but the quarter is typically our worst quarter as well. Just a little overview of the PMI, as I went through these the other day, I was kind of making a few notes on the PMIs. All the major indices now, PMIs have improved from September. So if we look at the September quarter compared to the December quarter, they've all improved. All of the major indices are greater than 50%, which is good news. The largest increases were in Germany and the Eurozone, and I'll just kind of tell you what some of those are for those that might not know these numbers. Globally, the number was 53.3%, that was up 1.5% from September. The U.S. had the largest absolute number as far as PMI. It was 57%. That was up 0.8%. Not up as much as the others, but as an absolute number, it was the highest. The Eurozone at 52.7%, was up 1.6% from the prior quarter. Germany was 54.3%. This was a big one. They were up 3.2%, which is a good sign for Europe because Germany has a very heavy weight in Europe as far as country and activity level. So that's a real positive. China, up 0.3%. It's at 50.5%, and Brazil, at 50.5%, was up just slightly at 0.6%. So the smallest increase was China, the largest was the U.S. at 57%. Doesn't mean nothing is happening in China. I think the big issue there is that construction -- the construction markets are flat -- I mean, really down, not just flat. They're being offset by other markets, but just not enough offset to really drag everything up. So that's kind of what we see in the PMIs. Looking at some of the specific markets, what we would see as strong, commercial and MRO aerospace, real positive, and I'll talk about this a little bit later when I talk about the 3/12s and the 12/12s. But distribution, good sign there on our distribution channel. I'll talk about that again. In North America, that's 50% of our activity. Power gen is strong, marine, forestry and offshore oil and gas, those are all -- what we consider strong segments, market segments for us. Weak would be the aerospace defense and MRO. Mining, of course, everybody knows about mining. That's been in the news a lot and it continues to be weak. Construction, pretty much globally still pretty weak. Land-based oil and gas being weak. Again, the contrast there is strong being offshore; weaker oil and gas being onshore. And then some flat segments, cars and light trucks, process industries, semicon is relatively flat, but it's flat at a high level. So that's not necessarily bad. And farm and ag, again is at a decent level, but a little bit flat at this time. Regionally, if we look at the regions, Industrial North America -- when I talk about these now, they're all tracking above 100% on our 3/12. We look at our 3/12 and 12/12, so that's really positive, that all of these are tracking north of 100%. Our 3/12 for North America is running close to 105%. Again, these kind of match up pretty closely with the order trends that you're seeing there. Europe, up ahead of the 3/12 is greater than 100% at about 105%. Asia and Latin America running close to around 110%. So that's -- those are -- all those are dragging our 12/12 numbers up, which would portend this year being better than last year and that's kind of the way the numbers are shaking out. Well, I mentioned this distribution earlier. Our 3/12 on distribution, the way we're looking at these numbers here is north of 100%, and it's roughly around 108%. So you can see our distribution business is tending to offset some of the weaker OEM markets, which is the beauty of Parker, because half of our business being distribution, that's what we'd like to see. That distribution channel, when it's up, it has a nice counterweight to some of these OEM segments that may not be up. Heavy-duty truck is -- the 3/12 is north of 100%. Construction equipment, of course, is well south of 100%. So that's the drag right there. Semiconductor is like 145%, so it's way up there. Process is about at 100%, and ag is just slightly below 100%. So those would be some of the specifics as far as the markets and the regions and what we see. But I think just to summarize all that, at least on these 3/12 indices, everything kind of is looking positive for the future. Is it going to be a boomer? Probably not. But is this going to be gradual improvement in growth? Yes, most likely. So that's kind of the way we see it.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Okay. And then philosophically, Don, why did you guys decide to move to a single-point guidance on your revenues? Just given the short cycle nature of your distribution business, I'm just curious.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Well, Ann, our guidance is really a roll-up. You hear us say this all of the time, so this isn't anything new to you. But our roll-up is a combination of all of our divisions. And when we get to rolling, we don't want to start playing with the numbers, because it's kind of hard to hold them accountable for the numbers if you start moving them around. So while things are positive, we felt that it was prudent to stay where we're at right now, keep the guidance consistent with what we gave to you last quarter. So this is what we got from our different divisions, and we feel pretty comfortable. There is not that much of a difference, I think, in the revenue, I think most of these things are tweaks. I think when you really look at the previous guidance versus the guidance today, yes, there are some things that moved up, there are some things that moved down a little bit. But they're really tweaks for the most part. The midpoint of the guidance is exactly the same. So, and plus, we give a range. So I think you have to look at the range. You can't just look at the midpoint. Yes, it could move from -- a little bit, but that's why we give a range.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook of Crédit Suisse.
Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
I guess 2 questions. Don, I appreciate your color that you provided to Ann, but can you just talk about how the orders trended throughout the quarter, I guess my concern -- or what we've heard from some channel checks in other OEs that December wasn't particularly very strong in some mobile markets, where bonus depreciation is going away. So I'm wondering if you saw that in your order trends and if you can comment on what you're seeing in January. And then I guess just my follow-up question, if you can give us an update on what you're going to do with the balance sheet. We're now entering the third quarter, the repurchase. There hasn't really been any much done there, and just sort of can we -- are acquisitions still a priority in the absence of not doing a more material one in the back half of the year, how we think about share repurchase?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. I think, Jamie, and I'll let Pam and maybe Jon as a little follow-up here, too. But generally speaking, through the quarter, what we saw was a gradual increase in orders throughout that period. So yes, things got gradually better. Again, these are not huge swings one way or the other, but a gradual improvement on through the quarter. And I'll let Pam, if you want to give them more specifics or Jon.
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I think just as Don was saying, as we improved -- we did improve through the quarter, so this would confirm some of the anecdotal information that you are also getting, Jamie. In particular in our Asia region, we saw very good sequential growth in orders throughout the quarter. North America, just slightly improving, and in Europe, also improving. But the standout in terms of regions for orders for us was all of Asia.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
And Jamie, and I'll give you a longer answer than maybe you want, but I'll just try to cover all this at one time as far as capital allocation, just to kind of recap for everybody, kind of where our head's at here on this. Our first priority is always dividends, and with our track record of 57 years increasing dividends, we want continue that. We've increased that 114% in the last 5 years. The thing that we did last year was we had a 10% increase. We're trying to move the payout as I indicated before, it used to be a 25% target, we're trying to move that up to 30%. My projection for you is that this fiscal year, we're going to move that north of 27%, where we finished last year as far as the payout. And that could happen as soon as this month. I have to get approval from the board. We're going to be discussing this, and we could see a dividend movement as early as this month. But again, they have to weigh in and vote on that. So that's the dividend. That's our #1 priority. You won't see me change this on my watch. We're going to continue this trend. CapEx, 2.5%, we've said that before. It's been running that and we're very comfortable with that. Acquisitions, yes. We still have a target, internal target here of 4% to 5% we'd like to do in acquisitions. We are in all different stages of discussions with a number of different acquisitions all over the world. And our anticipation is yes, we'd still like to get something to the finish line here by the end of the fiscal. Whether we do or not, I can't promise you. But we don't want to leave a lot of money on the balance sheet. We're with you 100% there. So if these don't work out, I think you're going to see us be a little bit more aggressive as to how we deploy the cash with respect to maybe share buybacks, things like that. It's not like we haven't bought any shares back. We bought about $51 million back in the second quarter. That's on top of $49 million in the first quarter, which gives you $100 million for the half. And we'll do another $100 million, just routine 10b5-1 buybacks for this year. So that'll be $200 million on the share buyback. Again, if we don't see clear to doing something else with the cash, specifically acquisitions, we'll take another look at share buyback and other possibilities here. But we're with you as far as the amount of cash on the balance sheet. We're definitely there. We don't think that we're going to need to do anything else on pensions. We did $75 million in the first quarter. We don't anticipate doing much else in pensions. We're in good shape there. The very first priority is also everybody in the company, as you might expect, is to get the restructuring to the finish line. So the fact that there's a little bit of a lull here in acquisitions, frankly, gives me a little bit more comfort because I want the whole team living up to what we told you, folks, we're going to do as far as that restructuring, too. So that's not an excuse for us. It just happens that maybe we have a little lull here, and that's going to help us with the restructuring as well and get that to the finish line for you. I hope that helps you, Jamie. I know that may not be exactly what you wanted to hear, but I think in general terms, that's what we're thinking and what we'll be working on for the balance of the year.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blanton of Clear Harbor Asset Management.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
My first question is on what you said about Asia. And you said the greatest sequential order growth was in all of Asia. Now that includes China, is that true in China, as well as the rest of Asia? Or are there differences?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, I think China -- if you look at the PMI for China, I think would be the first place to look. It went up the slightest. But keep in mind that, that is the general overall average of everyone's feelings about China. I think when you get to specific markets, you'll find that there's a great diversity of things being up versus things being down. As I said before, the construction piece of that has really been a drag. So there is -- there are other good segments that are -- that can pull that up and have been pulling it up. So when we look at our business in Asia, we're north of 100%. That means that on our 3/12 basis, we expect the year to be better than the prior year, we're almost at 110% actually for Asia in total. That includes, like you said Alex, India, Australia, China and Korea and Japan and so forth. And Japan has been a positive trend for us of late as well. So yes, certain segments are down, but overall, I think Asia is coming back nicely. Gradually, but nicely for us.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Okay. Do you think that China has still got as much potential as you did when you made your investments there or greater?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. I think it's got as much or greater. I think -- we can't write them off. I mean, this country is going to grow. They've got the engine moving. Yes, they're -- they have to slow down and take a little pause, I think, once in a while, and I think that's what they're doing. But the activity levels are still high there. I think that what we saw, Alex, as far as 13% growth rates in the past, it's probably going to be more like 5%, okay? I think they talk about 7% or 8%. I think probably 5% or -- between 5% and 7% probably is going to be more normal, what we see going forward. So we don't anticipate 13% rates. But we still anticipate a level of growth of that's going to be higher than probably most of the other regions around the world.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Yes, absolutely. I don't see anything wrong with 5% to 7%.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Now second question is this, you mentioned that your internal guidance was $1.14.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Right.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
And yet, there were estimates much higher than that, some as high as $1.35.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Right, right. [indiscernible] That ruined my Christmas, by the way, when I saw those numbers.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Well, they had been out for a while.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
The thing is, those expectations were very high and people expected you to raise your guidance for the year and that was a widespread expectation. So that's why I think the stock is off today. You don't have the kind of volatility in your stock price, so I'm wondering why you didn't guide the Street down during the quarter, so that you wouldn't get a negative surprise in the way we did in the guidance?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes, I don't know why we got a negative surprise in the guidance. The bottom line was we had been talking for the first 2 quarters about the second quarter being in the worst quarter in our year. We do this every year. We make that known out there and then yet we still get estimates that are way, way higher than us for the second quarter, and I don't understand. And I think we probably need to do a better job offline just explaining to everybody that, hey, the second quarter is -- don't get ahead of us here. And the other thing for the year, like we said before, we are -- we'll adjust the numbers and the range and all that as we go forward. And typically, what we've done this year is basically what we've done in the past years is that, we'll narrow the range as we get closer to the end. It doesn't -- it's not -- it doesn't make any sense to keep a wide range as you're getting closer to the end of the fiscal. But I didn't look at this as drop in the range or missing anything. I think we're right on target. We feel that we're right on target. Yes, we narrowed it. We reduced the top, but, hey, we raised the bottom. So I mean, look, you can't look at half of it. It's like a cup half full or half empty. I think you've got to look at both ends of the range. One end went up and the other one went down and the midpoint is the same. We look at that as consistent and if things develop as we hope they will, a little better based on all the things I've just told you in the third quarter, you'll see us move the range accordingly. We'll make the adjustments as needed.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Yes, you went up $0.10 up and $0.10 down on the...
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Andy Casey of Wells Fargo Securities.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
I just wanted to return to the capital allocation discussion and really appreciate that you largely answered the question already. But could you help us understand kind of the sort of milestones we should look for, given it seems like you're trying to balance 2 things against what appears to be a building industrial recovery. Those would be potential acquisition investments and then a more rapid capital redeployment. So I'm just wondering if you could kind of help us understand timing or milestones?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, I think when we talk about the acquisitions and the capital redeployment, I think that, to us, it's not a rebalancing. It's really trying to put the money where we really want to put it, and that is growing the business, okay? I want -- I'm -- I always default to trying to grow the business. I think at the end of the day, we've got to keep the top line going up. We've got to keep the operating earnings going up. So I'm not going to buy back a lot of shares if there's any hope at all that we can grow the top line faster by deploying those dollars in a different fashion, and specifically to make some good, strategic acquisitions for us. Having said that, though, I also am aware that it's not good to keep a lot of money on the balance sheet just sitting there, especially in this kind of environment. And we will -- if it looks like we can't adequately deploy a significant amount of those dollars that are sitting there, then we will take other actions. I guess that would be the best way to put it. So I don't think that's inconsistent with what I've said in the past. I think maybe I may have been a little bit more explicit about that, but it's not inconsistent with the way I'm thinking.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay, Don. And then if I could sneak in a restructuring. And it looked a little lighter than we expected in Q2, but the gross restructuring for the full year, really, the guidance didn't change. So a little bit of shift out of Q2 into the second half, could you comment on -- is this just timing of projects? And then is there any change in the fiscal 2014 view for the $0.15 restructuring benefit that you guys previously communicated?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, Andy. Jon here. Yes, I think as you've touched upon it here, this is as we explained in August, this is a series of many, many projects. And some of the projects, some of the very big ones have moved from Q2 to Q3. And with our best intentions, as we laid out our sequence of events on the restructuring, as the complexities of accomplishing all of our goals for all of the projects came to light through the quarter here, we knew that we had to move it. We are still expecting $0.47 gross for the year, our $6.40 includes the savings that we're going to get from those. Obviously, those savings are moving out to the right a little bit, but we are maintaining our guidance at the $6.40 here to include a few cents less in savings that we had anticipated at the beginning of the year in August when we tried to describe the restructuring to you at that time. Please, keep in mind for us, this is a very, very big program for us by a factor of 4 or 5 than we've ever done before in 1 year. And we're really pleased with our progress, but it's just -- we're moving from 1 quarter to another at this point. And that's what's included in our guidance.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of David Raso of ISI Group.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
So the quarter on the restructuring, you had about $0.06 of EPS help by the restructuring moving to the right. I know you're not going to give us fiscal '15 guidance right now, but if you get the full $0.47 restructuring done this year, is that all the actions that are planned? I just want to make sure we understand. Is this generally supposed to be done by the end of this fiscal year?
Jon P. Marten:
David, yes.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
And also the projects you're looking into.
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, David. Although we've slipped from 1 quarter to another, we have full commitment from our team that we're going to get this done in FY '14. That was our goal at the beginning of the year. That's still our commitment to ourselves and to our board, as well as everybody. And we have the project plans detailed out, to enable us to get there. So as I say, we're not taking this lightly. We understand the complexity of what we're trying to do in all of these projects, and we are determined to get all of the restructuring done in FY '14.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
And the tax rate, x the onetime items to be consistent with the guidance, x the impairment, x GE, Aero, what is a tax rate guidance now?
Jon P. Marten:
29%. 29%, David.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And lastly, on the order growth. I mean, given everything you spoke of last quarter, you highlighted all the PMI data, I would argue most folks are probably looking for order growth rates to accelerate and they basically held steady. Can you characterize what your expectations were on order growth for the quarter and what you actually received?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I think the one point to make on the order growth is that what is accelerating and by virtue of the data that we provided is our growth in international rest-of-world. Europe, as well as we were explaining to Jamie, it also accelerated within the quarter. So it's our International Industrial segment that is really driving that. That 5% overall growth includes a move from 5% to 6% in International. And North America was up at -- remained at 3% growth rate. So in general, as you well know, we will see a lag, and we are expecting continued order growth as time goes forward here. The one point to make, David, that this may be helpful to you is just, as Don talked about, so pleased with our progress on distribution and we are really and historically, we'll see that continue on. It's just such a powerful part of our cost structure and our sales -- ability to generate sales each quarter. In our guidance going forward, we -- as we looked at our entire OEM base, although the OEM progress for all of North America, as well as internationally, was good during the quarter, we did not want to move our sales guidance up for the full year until we got another quarter under our belt. And so that's why Don and Pam were trying to explain here that we'll give you a better update here after our Q3.
David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division:
Well, that was -- it was interesting, the North American margins, you lowered them in the guidance, but your mix, all right, more distribution. I'm surprised you took them down. Is there something else to consider there, why the margin guidance came down despite distribution is the highlight?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, we were really very careful about looking at those North American margins. And my advice at this point, would be to don't overreact to that. We are not trying to signal anything. We were taking a roll-up of all of the businesses here for the second half and we'll see over time those margins come back up. So no, we're not seeing any shift in the OEM margins long-term at all here. We were just trying to be more precise for the year and try to give you our best information at this point in time.
Pamela J. Huggins:
And just to add on to that, David. We do see that North America is going to be considerably ahead of last year even with that small tweak. So Jon said it absolutely the best way that you could.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski of MKM Partners.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
So a follow-up on the restructuring question, given some of the moving pieces on timing here, how does that affect or does it affect the savings calendar for next year, i.e., do you capture all of that in '15 or does some of that start to leak out into '16?
Jon P. Marten:
No, we are still going to capture '15 to remain intact. So we are not going to see a bleed-over in the restructuring into '15 and certainly, we're going to have the savings that we projected for '15 in our projections, once we come out with '15. As Don has articulated, we are very focused on this restructuring program that is going to allow us to get 15% in '15. And that's the purpose of -- in part of trying to make sure that everything that we do in '14 is a major #1 focus for us to get that restructuring done and get it completed here in Q3 and in Q4.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Got you. That's helpful. And then if I could just sneak in one last question for Don, Don you mentioned an appetite to revisit buyback at some greater magnitude if the M&A pipeline doesn't fill up. Are you comfortable putting a number around where the balance sheet should be from debt to cap, debt to EBITDA, however you guys want to think about it, where you would be willing to take the balance sheet, just on buyback?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, just traditionally and it really hasn't changed. When we look at our leverage on the balance sheet, if I just talk about leverage for a second. We don't want to do anything that would jeopardize our A rating on our debt. We've had that for as long as I've been at the company, 40-some years. And we don't want to jeopardize that, so all the 3 rating agencies have us A-rated on our debt. And so why I say that, then we could take our leverage up to probably 37% comfortably. I mean we've even -- we've been there before. We could maybe even go slightly above that, but we would do that in conjunction with discussions with the rating agencies if need be. So that's the first thing we do. We just say hey, we're just not going to jeopardize that. Yes, we could drop our debt rating and go to higher levels, but we're not going to do it.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Got you. And that's on a gross basis?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Or net basis? Okay. Gross.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Gross.
Operator:
Your next question is from the line of Nathan Jones, Stifel.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
I wondered if I could just follow-up on a question that David asked earlier, specifically on North American orders, which is where I thought we might see some accelerating growth. Don, you've been talking about the PMIs, the new order PMI number is above 60. Would it have been your expectation that we would have seen that manifest in some stronger demand by now?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
I didn't see 60, Nathan. I saw 57 --
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
The new order portion of it, which is the...
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Oh, the new order portion. I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
I'm just wondering, Don, if in your experience, you would have expected to see these kinds of forward indicators manifesting in better order growth for you at this point?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
There's always usually a lag, okay? So the question is, how much of a lag? And I, frankly, I haven't gotten in to try to decipher that at all. But I think it will manifest into improvements over time. The question is, when is it going to all hit? I'm seeing it on the distribution side already. I'm seeing exactly what I would call -- but remember, distribution is more real time. They order because we've got this thing leaned out pretty good. What they need this month, they're ordering this month. So I'm seeing those orders. It's the OEM side that gets to be a little -- our ability to predict is a little bit less on the OEM side than it would be on the distribution side. So I think it's going to develop. I think it has developed on distribution and it will follow on the rest of the business, especially to OEMs in time.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
Okay. And my follow-up, I think if I do the math, the incrementals in Industrial International were about 40% if I take out the restructuring charges. Is that kind of an incremental level we should be looking for you to hold for the next few quarters coming off these low levels of demand?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, we had -- for the company, we -- overall, we did 30%, okay? And that's made up of --
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
I'm just talking specifically about Europe.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
You're talking about Europe.
Nathan Jones - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc., Research Division:
Or International.
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, I think for International, David, at the very beginning, of course, long-term our target is 30% at the very beginning of the uptick, which we are starting to see right now quite often. And normally, this is barring restructuring. We'll see MROS greater, much greater than 30% and we've done 40s in the International Industrial business going forward here also. So, and this would also include, of course, the savings that we're going to get from our restructuring that we're working on here, which is primarily in our international sector, although it's -- there is restructuring happening throughout the world for us. So I think 40% is not out of range. We wouldn't want to commit to that for a very long period of time and I would not disagree with your math that you're doing here in Q2.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
So perhaps I'm the only one, but I thought your order number was good this quarter, particularly given the tougher comps. What I am surprised by a little bit is that you maintained your revenue guidance. You actually took Industrial International down slightly at the midpoint. And then going back to the margin piece, given the improving volumes, are you just seeing worse mix than you originally anticipated? Was pricing worse on the order side? I'm just trying to really understand why margins came down, specifically on Industrial North America.
Jon P. Marten:
I think that for industrial North America, the margins on -- we are not trying to signal to anybody anything about North America margins. Our North America margins in our industrial sector are very high for us. They are at a high rate for FY '14. They're projected to be higher in FY '14 than in FY '13. When we get to this range of margins in North America, we start to get into territory that we have not been living in. We are so proud of the way that we've been able to execute on the win strategy and really penetrate markets that are with new products that are just doing very, very well for us and well above our expectations. But our margins in North America are just very high and -- but we hesitate to continue to project for our guidance margins that are higher than we've ever seen before in general.
Pamela J. Huggins:
This is Pam speaking. One of the things to keep in mind is that we have $0.20 in the third quarter with restructuring. And as you know, when you're doing this type of restructuring, which is the biggest restructuring that we've ever done in this company, there's noise associated with that. Our forecast is a bottoms-up forecast. It's only natural that people are going to be somewhat cautious when they have the biggest amount of restructuring. And even though restructuring is mostly in International, there is a portion of that restructuring that's taking place in North America that is going to fall mostly in the third quarter. So we're not signaling [ph] that there's anything -- a problem with North America in anyway. We think that North America is going to be a good year. It's going to be ahead of last year significantly, and that is a very tweak in terms of what really came down in North America. That's why we give a range. We didn't feel that it was prudent to increase it to what it was last quarter, when we give you a range anyway. So we left it where it was because that's what we received from our operating group. So I wouldn't be overly concerned with that. I -- that's really not a problem or it's not a concern that I have.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful color. I guess just segueing on a follow-up question on the restructuring. I just want to make sure I'm clear. It's going to be a $0.20 charge in the third quarter, the remainder in the fourth quarter to get you to $0.47. I missed your comments earlier, Jon, are you expecting the benefits to still be $50 million and is that all coming through -- I'm sorry, $30 million and is that all coming through in the fourth quarter?
Jon P. Marten:
No, we're not saying exactly what the savings are going to be from that. We are saying that the savings are intact for FY '15. Because we didn't get every bit of the restructuring done when we wanted to get it done, as in the shortfall that we had in Q2 because of the shift to Q3, we're not going to get those savings, but what I am saying is that despite that, we are maintaining our guidance for the year and we will be making it up in other places. And so we are fully committed to our $6.40 for the year.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Got it. So some of it is shifted to 2015 and that amount in 2015, the run rate is still $80 million?
Jon P. Marten:
That's right. That is correct. Yes.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Okay. I think at this time, we've reached the end of our hour here. So we'll have to turn it over to Q&A, Matthew, if you're -- we are going to end our Q&A session, excuse me. And we are going to turn it over to Don with some closing comments. Apologies.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes. Thanks, Pam. Just a few comments. First of all, I want to thank everyone on the call for joining us this morning. I certainly and I think the rest of the team here, certainly appreciates the thoughtful questions and the dialogue as far as the year. It's a complicated year. There's a lot of moving pieces. I think you can see that and it's, believe me, we spent a lot of time going over all these pieces and try to make sure that we give you the very best picture we can of what's happened and then what's about to happen. And of course, the only thing we can be sure of is that we're never going to be right. We're going to either be too aggressive or not aggressive enough, and we'll probably never hit anything right on the head. But we'll do our best and I certainly appreciate you hanging in there with us. Our current expectation for the balance of this fiscal year is for ongoing moderate improvement. Again, we don't see this huge ramp-up like in other periods, but we didn't see a huge decline in order trends in this period like we have in the past. So you're not going to see the huge transition, but it's going to be a moderate improvement in global markets, which is still going to be a positive for us. And actually, with all this restructuring going on, I'm happy that it's not a huge ramp-up because we'd be trying to do that in the midst of a major restructuring. I think that could have been an issue. So right now, things are moving in the right direction at the right speed. I think it's going to be a good fiscal year for us as we finish it out in the next half. We also expect to complete that restructuring that we talked about and outlined for you with a full benefit, as we've indicated through our current fiscal '15. So we don't expect to have any trailing issues there throughout the balance of this year. These factors are anticipated to drive stronger performance in the second half of the fiscal compared with the first half and traditionally, as you recall, Parker does have more of a 48%, 52% kind of mix. Our second half is always stronger than our first half, unless we're going in some massive decline in a horrible recession or something. So typically, you'll see that second half being stronger. I think those of you that have followed us, certainly realize that. As always, at this point, I would also like to take the opportunity to thank our employees for their continued commitment and success. Our global team continues to do a great executing the win strategy and delivering the positive results that you've seen here of late. So we're really pleased with that. If you have any additional questions, Pam will be here the balance of the day. I certainly want to wish all of you, since this is our first call in the New Year, a happy and healthy New Year to everybody on the call. Goodbye, and have a great day. Thank you.
Operator:
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining in today's conference. This concludes the presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
Executives:
Pamela J. Huggins - Vice President and Treasurer Donald E. Washkewicz - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jon P. Marten - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance & Administration
Analysts:
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S. Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division
Operator:
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Parker-Hannifin Earnings Conference Call. My name is Philip and I will be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Ms. Pamela Huggins, Vice President and Treasurer. Please proceed, ma'am.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thank you, Philip. Good morning, everyone. Just as Philip said, this is Pam Huggins speaking, and I'd like to welcome you to Parker-Hannifin's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Earnings Release Teleconference. Joining me today is Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, Don Washkewicz; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jon Marten. For those of you who wish to do so, you may follow today's presentation with the PowerPoint slides. They've been presented on Parker's website at www.phstock.com. And for those of you not online, the slides will remain posted on the company's investor information website 1 year after today's call. At this time, reference Slide #2 in the slide deck, this is the safe harbor disclosure statement addressing forward-looking statements. And if you haven't already done so, please take note of this statement in its entirety. Slide #3 addresses non-GAAP financial measures. This slide, as required, indicates that in cases where non-GAAP numbers have been used, they have been reconciled to their appropriate GAAP numbers, and they're posted on Parker's website as well. Moving to Slide #4, outlined the agenda here. The agenda for today consists of 4 parts. First, Don Washkewicz, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, will provide highlights for the quarter. I'll come back on second and provide a review, including key performance measures for the quarter, along with the revised fiscal year 2014 guidance. And then the third part of the call will consist of our standard question-and-answer session. For the fourth part of the call today, Don will close with some final comments, as usual. So at this time, I'll turn it over to Don and ask that you refer to Slide #5 titled First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Highlights.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Well, thank you, Pam, and welcome to everyone on the call. We certainly appreciate all your participation today. I'll make a few brief comments and then Pam's going to return for a more detailed review of the quarter. I'm certainly pleased with -- that we're off to a good start in the first quarter. We continue to execute well in spite of a moderate growth environment out there. Some highlights for the quarter. Sales remained flat, as anticipated, with acquisition sales offset by divestitures. We were pleased to see our order rates turn positive for the quarter, for the first time in 5 quarters, as we showed a 5% improvement year-over-year. Our order growth is consistent with marginally positive trends that have been reported across major economic indicators of industrial production. Total segment operating margins were strong at 14.4%. I'll just point out that the Diversified Industrial segment operating margins were above our 15% target, at 15.3%. So we're very pleased with that. And of course, that was helped by 110 basis point year-over-year improvement in our International business. Earnings per the diluted share increased 2.5% to $1.61 compared to a prior-year quarter. Excluding restructuring expenses, earnings per diluted share were $1.67, or an increase of 6%. We consistently generate operating cash flow greater than 10% of sales, coming in at 11.1% in the first quarter before a discretionary pension contribution, and that contribution was about $75 million. We remain on track to deliver our 13th consecutive year of cash flow greater than 10%. So again, that's a nice record that we'd like to keep going. Just a few comments about our restructuring. Restructuring this quarter was $12 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, and that was on a forecast of $19 million, or $0.09 per diluted share. We're still projecting restructuring for the year to be $100 million, as we notified you last time at the last meeting, or $0.47 per diluted share. And that was what we had in our original plan. Pam is going to go into a little bit more detail as to how this impacts each of the quarters going forward. New for this quarter, we released supplemental sales information for 3 global technology platforms within our Diversified Industrial segment. You'll find a fact book with some of the historical data and additional information on these businesses on our investor website. This additional disclosure will give investors great insight into the strong underlying businesses in our portfolio, so we'd appreciate any feedback you have once you have an opportunity to review that information. Looking ahead to the full year, based on a good start for our first quarter and a larger than expected gain from the previously announced joint venture with GE Aviation, which will be recorded in the second quarter, we are increasing our guidance for the year. We have updated guidance to the range of $7.78 to $8.38 in diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2014. This guidance does include the anticipated gain of GE Aviation joint venture, which is $1.68 and an estimated $0.47 per diluted share in restructuring expenses that I mentioned earlier. So with that, we'll go ahead and turn it over to Pam for a little bit more detail.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Thanks, Don. So at this time, if you'll reference Slide #6, I'll begin by addressing earnings per share for the quarter. It came in at $1.61, as you saw in the press release for this morning. That compares to $1.57 for the same quarter a year ago, an increase of 3%. If you exclude the restructuring expenses, this quarter's earnings per diluted share was $1.67, an increase of 6%. So, moving to Slide #7, this lays out the components of the $0.04 increase in fully diluted earnings per share for the first quarter versus the same quarter a year ago. And you can see that higher operating income, while it shows $0.01 on that Slide, was really $0.06 when you exclude the restructuring. Our International business came in very strong. There was some offset. It was partially offset by lower income in Industrial North America and then of course, the Aerospace business. The items below segment operating income accounted for the remaining $0.03, and this was mainly due to a discrete tax benefit of $0.08, which was offset by a higher corporate and general and administrative expense and other expense. It was $0.03 for corporate G&A and $0.04 for other expense, mainly due to market-driven benefits. So moving to Slide #8, looking at the top line, revenues for the quarter increased 2% as a result of acquisitions. So revenue moved to $3.23 billion from $3.18 (sic) [$3.21 billion] last year. And of course, we took the opportunity to adjust for the divestiture of the automotive air-conditioning business in October of last year. So these slides are a little bit different for those of you who follow these slides closely. We did take the opportunity to restate fiscal year '13 for the divestiture. Segment operating margins for the quarter at 14.4%, basically flat with last year. But however, don't forget that, that includes additional restructuring in the quarter. So, moving to Slide #9, addressing the Industrial North America. Here you can see that revenues of $1.39 billion, they're relatively flat as additional revenue from acquisitions of 3% was offset by an organic decline of 3%. And of course, currency was relatively minor. Operating income decreased to $234 million from $244 million, a 4% decline of -- over the prior year, and this was mainly due to mix. So, moving to Slide #10, addressing Industrial International. For the quarter, revenues increased 3%, about half from acquisitions and half organically. Currency had no effect on this business in the quarter, which is unusual. And operating margin increased to $173 million from $157 million. And again, remember, we had this increase in March and even with higher restructuring costs in the quarter. Volume, obviously contributed to the higher margins as well and we had good cost control in Asia and Latin America. So moving to Slide #11, Aerospace reported, and organic revenues increased 5%. There were no acquisitions in the impact of currency on this segment. It was negligible. Operating margin decreased to $57 million from $62 million versus the same quarter a year ago, and this is due to additional development expenses, entry-into-service costs and a higher OEM to MRO mix. Now moving to the order rates, Slide #12. This slide details orders by segment. Just as a reminder, these numbers represent a trailing 3-month average and are reported as a percentage increase of absolute dollars year-over-year, excluding acquisitions and currency, except for Aerospace. Aerospace is reported using a 12-month rolling average. So as you can see from this slide, orders were positive 5% for the September quarter just ended, reflecting improvement sequentially across the segment. North America orders were up 3%. Industrial International orders increased 5% for the quarter. And Aerospace orders increased 11% for the quarter, again using the 12-month rolling. So orders are showing improvement coming off the bottom, turning positive for the first time in the last 5 quarters. So moving to the balance sheet. Parker's balance sheet remains strong. Cash on the balance sheet at year-end was $1.9 billion. This is offset partially, however, by outstanding Commercial Paper of $1.3 billion. DSI or days sales in inventory came in 70 days for the quarter versus 71 for the same quarter a year ago. This decrease in the quarter represents a reduction of approximately $24 million and includes the additional inventory as a result of acquisitions. Inventory levels are at 11.2%, and this is slightly better than last year at this time. Obviously, we did increase inventory sequentially, which is in line with the normal cycle of our business. Accounts receivable in terms of DSO closed at 50 and that's a 1-day improvement from the same quarter last year. And then of course, weighted average days payable outstanding at the end of September was 58 versus 56 at the end of June. So good working capital management. Moving to cash flow on Slide #14. You can see the cash flow in the quarter of $358 million. This excludes the $75 million pension contribution that Don talked about. And this $358 million compares to $219 million last year and represents a little over 11% of sales. So after the increased cash on hand sequentially, it went up by $164 million. The major uses of cash were obviously $117 million returned to the shareholders, $50 million via share repurchase and dividend payments of $67 million. And then of course, 1.6% of sales, or $53 million, was utilized in connection with capital expenditures. So now, I'll touch guidance, which I know you're all interested in, on Slide 15. The guidance for revenues and operating margins by segment has been provided on this slide. Now, I'm not going to read through the information on the call on this slide, but this detail's been provided for your convenience. And just so you know, these numbers include the GE Aviation JV and the restructuring cost that Don talked about. On Slide 16, this slide lays out the guidance assumptions, and I'll go through them as follows
Operator:
[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Andy Casey from Wells Fargo Securities.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
On the revenue guidance, it looks like you took the top end a little bit lower. Could you talk about what changed to drive that decision?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes. Andy, Jon here. I think what we did was we looked at our actual results for Q1 and we were comfortable with what our growth rates were that was contained in the original guidance. And because our quarter came in very solid, as -- almost as expected, we ended up deciding to keep the guidance where it is. You'll see in the components of the guidance on the top line, that Aerospace is down a little bit and North America and Industrial International is coming along as projected here for us. So that was our thinking at this point and that's how the comparisons came in for the Q and for the year as we rolled everything up from the bottoms up.
Andrew M. Casey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division:
Okay, Jon. And then a follow-up. The cash flow, very, very strong again. You have substantial capital allocation potential. Could you update us on what the acquisition pipeline looks like?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
This is a Don, Andy. We're always looking, with respect to the acquisitions, as far as what's out there. And of course, that's one of our main drivers as far as capital allocation this year, is to try to find some good acquisitions. I can never forecast what we're going to get to the finish line. We're always looking, we're always evaluating, and it's hard to predict what you're going to get to the finish line. So -- but that is a priority for us. The acquisitions are a priority. But also, I just might want to mention along with that, that as far as capital allocation, that we're still maintaining a focus on dividends. We've had a major increase over the last 5 years in dividends, and last year was about a 10% increase. And just so that everybody knows, we finished the year last year at about a 27% payout on dividends and we're looking for something north of that now, closer to 30%. Of course, that hasn't been approved by our board. I'm just telling you what I'm -- would be comfortable with and what we said, we're going to be trying to get closer to that 30% number, and that's what our intent would be this year. So dividends are going to be a priority. Obviously, acquisitions are way up -- way high on the list and we're continuing to look at those. The only other comments on capital allocation that I would make, would have to do with share repurchase and we'll do about $200 million as a minimum this year. We did $50 million in the first quarter and we'll continue that at $50 million a quarter and then potentially do more than that, depending on where we end up with our cash balances and the acquisition pipeline toward the end of the year. The only other thing is that -- we did mention earlier, is that we did put $75 million into the pension as well.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan from JPMorgan.
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Don, would you just walk us through your normal -- what you're seeing out there by end market and by segment? You made an interesting comment that sequentially, it looked like there was an improvement. If you could just give us your normal end market color, that'd be great.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Sure. Sure, sure. Well, maybe I'll start with the PMI Indices, the ISM Index and so forth, just kind of give you a little recap of what that looks like. I think when I tell you this, it's going to be along with our 3/12 and our 12/12 pressure curves, our order rate curves. I think you're going to see that they kind of tie in pretty good with where we are as far as our order rates that we're showing and sharing with you. From a PMI standpoint, all of the indices now -- unlike in the past, all of the indices now are north of 50%. So that's a good sign. Everything is north of 50% for the global PMI and it's up slightly from the August period. So that's good. That's up from June as well. Europe, as far as PMI, has increased slightly from August -- I'm sorry, has decreased slightly from August, the Europe one. And also Germany's decreased slightly, but they're up quite a bit from June. So I'm not looking at that being a negative. I think they're still riding above 50% and that's still a positive place to be. The U.S. took a big jump. You may have noticed that yourself. It's up around 56% right now, which is really a very good territory for us. China's flat but north of 50%. It's pretty flat and that's -- we are still seeing kind of a flat environment in Asia and China, in particular. And Brazil is up slightly, but they are just right at about 50%. So they're still pretty flat as well. If you look at the markets, the positive markets that we have, as far as positive trends, would be as follows
Ann P. Duignan - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division:
Yes. Maybe Don, just a quick follow-up on the distribution business. In speaking with your distributors, do you get the sense that it's restocking or is it true end market demand that's driving the increased rate?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes, I think it's end market demand. I think that everybody has been managing their inventories pretty good, at least in that channel, for over this cycle. And I think now, they are really seeing end market demand, and I think that's consistent with the overall order trend and the indices that I've kind of highlighted. I think that would be more end market demand than anything.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Tiss from BMO Capital Markets.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Don, you made a $5 million today on your stock, you could probably take -- you can take the afternoon off.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
See, it pays to stay investor. It's never a bad time to own a Parker stock, right?
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Yes, that's right. So just first question on margins, can you just talk about why so tough on the Aerospace side? It seems like the R&D cost would be coming down and we should start to see some of that benefit. And then also, the opposite on the European margins. Is there anything in there besides just the restructuring that's really pushing those margins up so quickly?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, Joel, Jon here. I think, first on the Aerospace margins. Really, what we saw in Q1 was the impact of a couple of different things. One, we had a mix issue just with a little bit less commercial aftermarket than we had expected and a little bit more OEM business than we had expected. And of course, that impacts the margins. And then also, we saw some effects of some entry into service support that was required. A little bit more in development expenses and then just supporting some of the new airframes and some of the new programs that are going into service, our support cost, to be sure that we're carrying out our obligations in terms of those programs, was higher than we expected. In terms of international margins and including Europe and Asia, I think what we're seeing there is a little bit higher leverage for ourselves as the volume improves, commensurate with the order rates that you're seeing and a little bit of a better increase there. We're also starting to see the benefit in our International margins from our integration efforts from the deals that we did last year and in FY '12. So as we continue the integration process, we're starting to see slightly better margins there, too.
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
And just a quick follow-up. Is there any way that you can kind of ballpark the incremental margins on the organic volume growth, just so we can get a sense of, you know what I mean, how strong of a component that is to the overall improvement?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, are you talking about just worldwide, Joel?
Joel Gifford Tiss - BMO Capital Markets U.S.:
Yes, and probably in Europe, too because it's been so depressed for so long.
Jon P. Marten:
Well, of course, our margins right now, as we are starting to go through that inflection point and our order rates are starting to go up, our MROS is higher than our normal MROS targets. We're targeting, of course, with a -- to have a cost structure that provides us on the upside, 30%-plus, and we certainly did see that in our International business here for the quarter. That's what we'll be targeting for as we go on. So we feel very comfortable through the cycle at 30% and a little bit above 30% here as we start to inflect out of the downturn and follow the order rates that we reported.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook from Crédit Suisse.
Jamie L. Cook - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division:
Two questions. One, just on the restructuring action that you've taken so far, can you provide a little color about what you've done or what -- where you expect to take more actions? I don't know if you can give color in terms of workforce reduction or facility closings or any color by country. And then I guess my next question, just given the strong orders that you've seen over the quarter, I'm surprised that you're taking your revenue down. I know Andy sort of asked that. But was there anything unusual in terms of how the months progress that make you a little more cautious, or is it just it's the first quarter? Just a little more color there. Because the orders are actually better than I would've thought.
Jon P. Marten:
Thanks, Jamie. Just first, on the restructuring. We're still in the middle of really working out exactly what the timing of all of that is going to be around the world. We feel very comfortable with our $0.47 that we're sticking with here for the quarter and for the year. And we're feeling very comfortable with what we were able to get accomplished. We were $0.01 shy of what we wanted to do in Q1. And just to set the scale for you, that $0.01 shy of what we wanted to do in Q1 was the entire amount of restructuring that we did in FY '13. So just to emphasize how big of a program this is for us. But, as we went through all the initiatives, the initiatives are intact. They're intact for this year. And Pam has given how they breakout from the first half to the second half. And so -- but it's tricky in terms of exactly the details behind it at this point. We'll be able to probably give you a little bit more detail as to precisely how this has ended up here at the end of Q2. Now, in terms of the guidance for sales, you got to keep in mind a couple of things. One, we took a look at how we did in the quarter. We took a look at how the order rates were coming in. You got to keep in mind that the GE joint venture, from an annual revenue standpoint, is going to remove $200 million a year from us -- from our ability to generate sales. Of course, we won't be able to consolidate that in the future. And we are really just trying to just update it incrementally. We are not taking a look and adjusting our guidance anymore specifically than just feeling really good about doing well in the quarter, coming in almost just in line. And the quarter went as we expected, and our guidance range is just pretty much intact here. A little bit better in International and maybe not quite as good than some of the other segments. But overall, we felt comfortable sticking with our guidance that we put out in August.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Hammond from KeyBanc.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Couple on the Aero side. I guess is there a point in time where you start to get a little impatient about margin progression there and these lingering costs that keep popping up? And just on the top line, again, I understand the fine-tuning, but why are we lowering the top line given that we're still seeing double-digit order growth out of Aero?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Jeff, this is Don. Yes, it does got a little bit frustrating, but we're in territory that we, frankly, we haven't been before with all of these new programs. I know, we hate telling you the same story every quarter and having to push things out a little bit here and there, but we've never really been here before with this order of magnitude of new programs and complex -- if the technology was something that we had done in the past, this fly-by-wire technology is new, I think that we would've been a lot more accurate in some of our estimates. It's just hard to predict with the number of programs and the complexity. Hitting this right on for you folks has been tough, and we don't like it anymore than you do. We're doing the best we can, and we're just going to continue to stay on it and try to give you the best information we can. Some of the programs, by the way, have pushed out from a sales standpoint. We've got some orders that have been pushed out from a couple of the programs that we had worked on. So that's changed the sales mix as well going forward. I don't know, Jon, if you had anything else you wanted to add to that.
Jon P. Marten:
No. I think between the mix and the level of complexity and the entry into service support, that's a -- there's a lot of moving parts there, and we are really trying as hard as we can to be as accurate as we can when we update the guidance each quarter. And keep in mind that our backlog for Aerospace is at an all-time high. This is all going to pay back for us in the future. This quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year kind of fluctuation is going to occur here when we're in the middle of the unprecedented number of development programs for us. But we feel very confident that in the long run, this pain that we're going through is going to pay off for us, and it is really going to drive value for the company long term.
Jeffrey D. Hammond - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division:
Okay, and then just quick housekeeping item. Can you give us the pretax restructuring charge in the quarter and where it would've fallen in the 3 segments?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Jeff, it's Pam speaking. Yes. Let me give you the quarterly amount, okay? Last time -- and I just want to make sure that I'm very clear with this, because last time we talked about $0.32. The $0.32 that we talked about last time was the net. It was basically cost less savings, okay? So we had $0.47 of cost, $0.15 of savings. Obviously, the net being the $0.32. By quarter, the costs are $0.06 in the first quarter, $0.13 in the second quarter, $0.06 in the third quarter, $0.22 in the fourth quarter, and that gets you to your $0.47. What I will say is that close to 95% of that is obviously in the international businesses.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blanton from Clear Harbor Asset Management.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Your CapEx for the first quarter, what was that again?
Pamela J. Huggins:
1.8% of sales.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
1.8%. And what do you expect for the year in that?
Jon P. Marten:
It's going to be around that number, Alex. It's been fluctuating from 1.8% to 2.1%. And so we wouldn't expect it to be any less than the 1.8% and probably no more than 2.1%.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
So that's about a saving of about 300 basis points from what it ran 10 years ago.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Yes, sir.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Which on $13 billion in sales is $400 million that you can use to repurchase stock or buy your own stock or buy companies. So I think that's an excellent achievement. The other question I have is on the earnings guidance, you've given that to us including the restructuring of $0.47. And if you look at the consensus number, which this morning was $6.53, it's in the middle of that range. But I believe that, that consensus excludes the $0.47. Is that correct? So that if you put that $0.47 back in, the consensus would be $6.06 compared with your $6.10 to $6.70 number. Is that correct? Is that the way we should look at that?
Pamela J. Huggins:
What I would say about that is we worked very hard in the quarter to try to get everybody on the same page with respect to inclusion or excluding that. And it was very difficult to do that.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
So you mean the $6.53 consensus is a mixture of people that are including restructuring and those who aren't?
Pamela J. Huggins:
There could be some of that in there, Alex.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Because usually, they work pretty hard to make everybody on the same page at first call.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Right. Well, we had a couple of things moving around this time. We had the JV gain, as well as the restructuring. And we were pretty good at getting the JV gain excluded, but on the restructuring side, it was quite a challenge, let me tell you.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
Okay. So you don't really know what the clean number is?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Well, we think most of those numbers exclude the restructuring -- include the restructuring, sorry. And the reason I say that is because we gave guidance with restructuring in it. So most of the people followed the guidance that we gave.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Alex, this is Don. Just one follow up on the comment that you made just a minute ago. I think it's a very good observation. It's something that I think we tend to miss because you're looking year-on-year but you don't look over the longer run and see that because of our WIN initiative that we started back in the early 2001 time frame that we've been executing on, we have really driven the need for capital down drastically throughout the company, plus the need for facilities and so forth because we're driving inventory out of our system by executing Lean. It's been really a positive -- probably one of the most positive things we've done in the company. But what I want everybody to understand is that the dividend increase scenario that we've been executing here, 114% increase over the last 5 years, would not have been possible had we not driven this capital expenditures down to where we were. That's where the money is coming from that I'm using now to pay back to our shareholders. So I just wanted to make that tie-in because it's exactly what's happening here. We feel a lot more comfortable that we can raise that dividend given the fact that we've done the heavy lifting here.
Alexander M. Blanton - Clear Harbor Asset Management, LLC:
That's an excellent point. Lean applies to the management of capital as well as the management of factories.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Absolutely.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
Don, I'm wondering, can I take you back to capital allocation for just a moment here? And I'm curious, as you talk about your focus being on acquisitions, is there any way to sort of size for us what might be in the pipeline? I realize it's not over till it's over, but is there a chance that there's something kind of a little chunkier that we're waiting to do here? And have you changed any of your thoughts about what you're willing to pay for these things?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
No. I think that what we're willing to pay, I think we're pretty consistent on that. We do a valuation here, and we're pretty -- we haven't really changed our method of evaluating or coming up with a value in our discounted cash flow approach over the years. It's been pretty stable. The ones that we're looking at are not in the $1 billion category for the most part. I mean, there's only a handful of those that we would consider. If they were available or actionable, of course, we're always looking at those as well, but I would say are more in the range of $100 million to $300 million kind of size range. Maybe even some that are a little less than that would be the ones that we're looking at today. Again, though, it's hard to say what we're going to get to the finish line. We did about $0.5 billion last year. I would've done more last year if we could have gotten more to the finish line. But we did $0.5 million, which is 4-point some percent of sales. I'd love to do that much again this year. We're going to have to get some moving down the pipe and get them to the finish line here to be able to pull that off. If not, though, like I said before, if not, we'll figure out what else to do with the allocating capital elsewhere, and we don't want to continue to build up a lot of cash on the balance sheet for the long term. So we'll figure out what to do there.
Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division:
That's helpful. I guess what I'm wrestling with and maybe my math is just wrong, but it looks to me like you guys have about $2.5 billion of excess liquidity on your balance sheet right now. If I was just to get you back to 30% net debt to cap, I'm coming up with something in that range. And given that you tend to pay somewhere around onetime sales for things, it would appear that you have just way more than you need even for what's in the pipeline. And so I guess I'm just trying to kind of square all of that up and figure out why you would want to wait on other options as you described them?
Jon P. Marten:
This is Jon. I think one part of that answer is that, as Don talked about, there are the bigger deals that we continue to look at. And as we look at the smaller deals, we've been able to do in some years 10 or 12 relatively smaller deals in the $50 million to $200 million range. So I think your math is correct in terms of our ability to fund these. And we are looking at this very hard, every quarter, and we take it very seriously in terms of the cash deployment and our need to do something there. But as Don said, our preference is the pipeline, the acquisition pipeline, and we want to make sure that we've got the liquidity to fund all of the ones that are in our pipeline. And of course, you never know what's going to get in, to the very end, but we want to stay prepared for that.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre from Robert W. Baird.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
So I guess my question is primarily around the cost savings. You detailed the restructuring costs. I'm wondering if you can update us on that a little bit. Obviously, first quarter performance was quite strong. And as it pertains to International, it looks to me like in your margin guidance change, most of the upside is pretty much housed in the first quarter. How do we think about the rest of the year?
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I think you're right there, Mig. I mean I think most of the upside is in the first quarter, as we looked out, as I said before in the answer to the top line question. It's the middle of October. We just came out in the middle of August here with our guidance for the year. And what we're trying to explain to everybody here is that this year is starting out just like we thought that it was going to. And our Restructuring Program, as we revamped the entire program here and looked at it program by program, initiative by initiative, for the year is coming in remarkably close to the way that we originally envisioned it here at the end of our Q4. So we feel confident in our top line and in our restructuring going forward. Now as we looked at the guidance then, therefore, for the follow-on portion of the ensuing 3 quarters, we felt comfortable enough with our look that we had put together at the year end to maintain that. We made a few minor changes in a couple of the segments and a couple of the quarters here to account for certain activities. We adjusted the tax rate, as Pam explained earlier, and we adjusted for the JV also. But I would characterize our look at the ensuing 3 quarters as consistent with what exactly Don said, a moderate growth following in line with our orders growth. And our ability to generate cash and operating income here are just about where we thought it would be here at the end of Q1. Our savings for the restructuring program has not changed. It's the same as what we had for the beginning of the year at a total of $0.15 for the year. And our first quarter came in just right where we thought that it would. So, so far, so good. We're very proud and we're continuing and we're determined to get through with this restructuring program and get on with providing value to our shareholders and growing the business.
Mircea Dobre - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division:
Okay, very well. And then my follow-up. Very much appreciate the technology platforms that you guys have put out there. I'm wondering, what sort of growth in, say, motion flow and filtration for the year is embedded in your current outlook? Can you provide that?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Mig, we don't really have it broken out by that. We didn't break it out by that, but we can get back to you on that, okay?
Operator:
And your next question comes from the line of Eli Lustgarten from Longbow.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
I had a question on restructuring for 2015. I mean, $0.06 actually doesn't matter, but $0.47 is material, and it would be Wall Street protocol to always exclude that unless you're going to tell me the $0.47 is an ongoing number for the next several years. And I don't think you're believing to indicate that. Is it expected that restructuring in '15 will be much lower than this year and, therefore, we should exclude it?
Jon P. Marten:
Yes, very much so, Eli. And we're trying to be as transparent as we can. So the $0.47 is a onetime event for FY '14. We don't expect that in FY '15.
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
And that's why people should exclude the number if they want to get an apples-to-apples comparison [ph]. I'd encourage you to go back to normal protocol as opposed to bury it in there. My real question is 2 parts. One, were most of the orders driven by distribution as opposed to OEM across it? And two is all the drop in Industrial International, the restructuring, profitability and the slight drop in Industrial North American mix, or what's causing the slightly -- expected slight decline in profitability in those?
Jon P. Marten:
Eli, I'm sorry, Eli. You broke up there a little bit. Could you repeat the question?
Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC:
A question was, one, is most of the order gain from distribution as opposed to OEM. It would seem that, that would be distribution that drove all your order gains. And the second part of it, is the margin change through the year versus the first quarter, principally restructuring in International and mix in North America?
Jon P. Marten:
I think that for North America, the margins, as you know, are at a historical high. And we are cautious on being able to really take a look at increasing our margins there in North America. I think our order growth there is a combination of distribution and our OEM business. It's not one or the other. And so I think that's the way that we're looking at that going forward. Now in terms of the International margins. I think there are obviously numerous reasons for the increase in our forecast there. But 2 of the biggest ones are our ability to integrate the acquisitions that we have done in the prior couple of years and that ongoing benefit that we're getting there. And then of course, per our guidance for FY '14, we are continuing to focus on our operations there and trying to -- as Pam said, 95% of our restructuring being there, what we're trying to do is to make sure that we are getting the entire company up to the level where we can maintain, for an entire year, our 15% ROS targets that Don talked about last quarter. And so we're seeing some improvement in our international margins, and we're very pleased by that, and so our updated guidance is just reflecting that marginally.
Operator:
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Ritchie from Goldman Sachs & Co.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
So just clarification on the $0.32 versus the $0.47. Is the $0.15 in benefit that we discussed last quarter not happening in FY '14? And subsequently, is the run rate for next year it's still expected to be $80 million in savings?
Pamela J. Huggins:
No, that's exactly right. We still are expecting $80 million, and it's moving along just as we thought it would. So the $0.15 is exactly what we reported last quarter. And I think if you look at it by quarter, it's coming in line with what we said.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Okay, great. That's helpful. And then I guess just one question on Industrial International. The margins were great this quarter. It seems like prior restructuring actions have helped. I take a look at your margin guidance for this year at 11.4% to 11.8%, it seems a bit conservative to me if you assume that the benefits come through, through the remainder of the year. Even if you have additional restructuring costs, it seems like the top end of that range is pretty conservative. So maybe you can just discuss that a little bit.
Jon P. Marten:
Well, I think that from our viewpoint there, we understand always for the company in all segments, almost, our Q2 is seasonally lower than our Q1. So we will see that impact here for this fiscal year. Our Q3 and our Q4, as I tried to explain earlier, is intact with how we explained our guidance coming out here for the fiscal year. And so since we're only 2 months in, we feel comfortable. Our order rates are coming in where we thought they were. Our end markets are, like always, moving up and down slightly, and we continue to tweak how we are projecting our revenue through the changes in the end markets, not only internationally, but also as well as North America. And so we feel like our numbers that we came in with here for the second half, especially in International Industrial, are good numbers for us to be able to project our future EPS.
Joseph Ritchie - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division:
Because the implication, I guess, is for the next several quarters that Industrial International is going to be down. Margins are going to be down over the next 3 quarters despite fairly easy comps. So is that the right way to think about it?
Jon P. Marten:
I think again, getting to the question, we see again we're looking at these numbers with our restructuring in them. And if I took out the restructuring out of the international margins, they would not be going down. They would be relatively flat to trending up slightly. But the bulk of our restructuring is in the second half, not the first half. So if you're looking at it including the restructuring, then it may appear to be that way to you, but that's not what the underlying trend is in the business going forward.
Operator:
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski from MKM Partners.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Pam, if I remember right from the last quarter, you gave a little bit of help on the first quarter, just saying $1.40 midpoint. Any help you can provide on the December quarter, particularly with all the moving parts coming through?
Pamela J. Huggins:
Sure. I can do that because it's very difficult, I know, for you to see with the JV in there. But I would say that the midpoint -- I could tell you the midpoint and then you can wrap the $0.15 around it, if that'll be helpful. But if you exclude the JV, it's probably around $1.14, $1.15. Somewhere in there.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Okay, that's helpful. I appreciate that. And then, Don, just one last one here, going back to some of the comments you made on the PMI earlier, particularly in North America. I think we get pretty consistent feedback that it doesn't feel like a 55-plus PMI environment. Is that the sense you get from your customers? And if so, when do you think we start to catch up to that on a more realtime basis?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
That's a good question because I've seen that stated before. I forgot where, what I was reading, I saw some comments to that effect. And I would have a tendency to agree that usually when you're up into that 56 territory, which is where the U.S. PMI is now, that you would expect to see more activity. I think there's a little bit of a lag this time. But when we look at our 3/12 data, which is our more recent 3 months order trends, they're tending to trend in the direction of that PMI where you expect them to be. So I think that's just a little bit of a lag here, maybe a month or 2. And I think we're going to be caught up with it. That's just really off the top. That's my gut feel based on looking at our order trends and the current PMI trends that we're looking at.
Joshua C. Pokrzywinski - MKM Partners LLC, Research Division:
Got you. So we should start to see that show up in the December quarter, excluding normal holiday shutdowns and things about that?
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Exactly, yes. I think that would be accurate, yes.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Josh, just for clarification, on the numbers that I just threw out to you, I want to make sure that you know that, that includes the restructuring for the second quarter.
Operator:
The next question comes from the line of Jamie Sullivan with RBC.
Pamela J. Huggins:
Jamie, I would just like to announce that this will be the last question. We'll close it off after this, and Don will have a few closing comments. Thank you. Go ahead, please.
Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
So just revisiting the revenue guidance, it sounds like first quarter is at least in line with expectations. The order trends are positive. In the Industrial segments, you did take a point off of the top end of the range of the revenue growth. I know that may be minor, but just given the commentary and sort of the trends, just wondering why change the range at all at this point in the year? Are there maybe some end markets that are recovering a bit more slowly than you expected? Just if you can give a little bit more color.
Jon P. Marten:
I think that the way that we were looking at the guidance at the beginning of the year, when we put it together, we showed certain -- as the year went on, certain end markets improving as the year went on. And as we look at updating all of these numbers, like we do every month, and of course on detail every quarter, we saw some of the end markets, maybe not coming back quite as strongly, and I pushed it down in the second half slightly. As Don talked about at the beginning, some of the markets that are down, primarily the construction equipment market, is not coming back quite as quickly as we thought, primarily in our international margins. And so we wanted to account for that as well as a few other markets that weren't really quite as strong as we thought that they were going to be, as we look out now for the next 9 months. Having said that, there's other markets that are doing better than we have projected. And when we rolled them all together, we ended up deciding to just pull that down by 1 point.
Jamie Sullivan - RBC Capital Markets, LLC, Research Division:
That's very helpful. And then sorry if you covered this on the Aerospace side, but just the log again from the change last time to this time. Did defense have any impact on those numbers?
Jon P. Marten:
I think that there's a, from a top line standpoint, there is an impact of some defense orders. But this is more timing than it is a significant downshift. So we think that there is some impact there. There's also a 1 or 2 commercial programs where they are also a timing issue, where they're moving from FY '14 to FY '15. And then the other, of course, the other major factor there is that there's, going forward on an annual basis, $200 million less in revenue that we will see in the Aerospace segment as a result of the closing of the JV as of October 1.
Pamela J. Huggins:
So at this time, Don, we'll turn it over to Don who has some closing comments. Prior to that, I'd just like to say thank all of you for your attendance. And Todd and I will obviously be around this afternoon, and I'm sure we'll be talking to most of you.
Donald E. Washkewicz:
Thanks, Pam. And just a couple of comments real quickly here. Just want to once again thank everybody on the call for their participation and for joining us this morning. Just I guess 2 key takeaways to recap. There's more takeaways than that, but just maybe a couple of key ones. Just one thing is our expectations for the balance of the fiscal year is for a moderate improvement in our global markets, and more importantly, ongoing growth in our distribution business. And that was suppressed in the past quarters, and now we see that coming back to life and that's good for Parker, for our future, because it represents half of our -- approximately half of our Industrial business. So that's a real key one that I think is part of the takeaway we should all be pretty happy with. The other thing is that we do expect to complete the comprehensive restructuring that we talked about. We went into a lot of detail with you about that. There's a lot happening behind the scenes. When you talk about capital deployment and all that, this is one of the major things we're doing this year in that area, spending $100 million on this major restructuring is not a typical program for the company, as we mentioned. So we do plan to complete that. As we've outlined it for you and with the full benefit occurring in fiscal '15. So that's going to be a positive as well. And then as always, I'd like to just take the opportunity to thank our employees for their continued commitment and success that we've had. Our global team really does continue to do a great job executing on the WIN strategy and delivering the positive results that we've seen, so I want to thank all of them. And then just lastly, as Pam indicated, she will be here with Todd the balance of the day if there's any questions or follow-up that's needed. So with that, goodbye and have a great day.
Operator:
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.